WorldWideScience

Sample records for current climatic conditions

  1. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  2. Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

    2015-01-01

    The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

  3. Environmental impacts of barley cultivation under current and future climatic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dijkman, Teunis Johannes; Birkved, Morten; Saxe, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    for the increased impacts. This finding was confirmed by the sensitivity analysis. Because this study focused solely on the impacts of climate change, technological improvements and political measures to reduce impacts in the 2050 scenario are not taken into account. Options to mitigate the environmental impacts......The purpose of this work is to compare the environmental impacts of spring barley cultivation in Denmark under current (year 2010) and future (year 2050) climatic conditions. Therefore, a Life Cycle Assessment was carried out for the production of 1 kg of spring barley in Denmark, at farm gate....... Both under 2010 and 2050 climatic conditions, four subscenarios were modelled, based on a combination of two soil types and two climates. Included in the assessment were seed production, soil preparation, fertilization, pesticide application, and harvest. When processes in the life cycle resulted in co...

  4. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

  6. Wildfire Impacts Upon US Air Quality for Current and Future Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B. K.; Tao, I.; Avise, J. C.; Stavros, E. N.; Strand, T. T.; McKenzie, D.; Guenther, A. B.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Salathe, E. P.; Zhang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Wildfires can have an important impact on regional air quality as they are large and intermittent sources of primary particulates, secondary aerosols, and ozone precursors. As part of an ongoing analysis on the effects of global change upon US air quality, we report results for current and future decade simulations of the inter-relationship among climate change, wildfires and air quality. The results are reported for the Northwest, Southwest, and Central Rockies regions of the US. Meteorological fields from the ECHAM5 global climate model for the IPCC A1B scenario were downscaled using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model to drive the MEGAN biogenic emissions model, a stochastic fire occurrence model, Fire Simulation Builder (FSB), and the CMAQ chemical transport model to predict ozone and aerosol concentrations. Simulations were completed for two nested domains covering most of the northern hemisphere from eastern Asia to North America at 220 km horizontal resolution (hemispheric domain) and covering the continental US at 36 km resolution (CONUS). Sensitivity studies were conducted for representative summer periods with fire occurrence generated from FSB within the current (1995-2004) and future decade (2045-2054) and using current decade historical fire data obtained from the Bureau of Land Management Database. Results are reported in terms of the effects of global change upon fire occurrence, fire plume transport and PM and ozone pollutant levels.

  7. Simulation of Deep Water Renewal in Crater Lake, Oregon, USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Wood, T. M.; Wherry, S.; Girdner, S.

    2015-12-01

    We applied a 1-dimensional lake model developed to simulate deep mixing related to thermobaric instabilities in temperate lakes to Crater Lake, a 590-m deep caldera lake in Oregon's Cascade Range known for its stunning deep blue color and extremely clear water, in order to determine the frequency of deep water renewal in future climate conditions. The lake model was calibrated with 6 years of water temperature profiles, and then simulated 10 years of validation data with an RMSE ranging from 0.81°C at 50 m depth to 0.04°C at 350-460 m depth. The simulated time series of heat content in the deep lake accurately captured extreme years characterized by weak and strong deep water renewal. The lake model uses wind speed and lake surface temperature (LST) as boundary conditions. LST projections under six climate scenarios from the CMIP5 intermodel comparison project (2 representative concentration pathways X 3 general circulation models) were evaluated with air2water, a simple lumped model that only requires daily values of downscaled air temperature. air2water was calibrated with data from 1993-2011, resulting in a RMSE between simulated and observed daily LST values of 0.68°C. All future climate scenarios project increased water temperature throughout the water column and a substantive reduction in the frequency of deepwater renewal events. The least extreme scenario (CNRM-CM5, RCP4.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to decrease from about 1 in 2 years in the present to about 1 in 3 years by 2100. The most extreme scenario (HadGEM2-ES, RCP8.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to be less than 1 in 7 years by 2100 and lake surface temperatures never cooling to less than 4°C after 2050. In all RCP4.5 simulations the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C for increasing periods of time. In the RCP8.5 simulations, the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C year round by the year 2060 (HadGEM2

  8. Modeling fire-driven deforestation potential in Amazonia under current and projected climate conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Page, Y.; van der Werf, G.R.; Morton, D.C.; Pereira, J.M.C.

    2010-01-01

    Fire is a widely used tool to prepare deforested areas for agricultural use in Amazonia. Deforestation is currently concentrated in seasonal forest types along the arc of deforestation, where dry-season conditions facilitate burning of clear-felled vegetation. Interior Amazon forests, however, are

  9. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Yin, X.; Zhu, Y.; Boote, K.; Adam, M.; Bregaglio, S.; Buis, S.; Confalonieri, R.; Fumoto, T.; Gaydon, D.; Marcaida III, M.; Nakagawa, H.; Oriol, P.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Singh, B.; Singh, U.; Tang, L.; Yoshida, H.; Zhang, Z.; Bouman, B.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We

  10. Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2014-01-01

    The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing

  11. Sustainability of small reservoirs and large scale water availability under current conditions and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Krol, Martinus S.; de Vries, Marjella J.; van Oel, P.R.; Carlos de Araújo, José

    2011-01-01

    Semi-arid river basins often rely on reservoirs for water supply. Small reservoirs may impact on large-scale water availability both by enhancing availability in a distributed sense and by subtracting water for large downstream user communities, e.g. served by large reservoirs. Both of these impacts of small reservoirs are subject to climate change. Using a case-study on North-East Brazil, this paper shows that climate change impacts on water availability may be severe, and impacts on distrib...

  12. Climate change and wildfire effects in aridland riparian ecosystems: An examination of current and future conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Max Smith; Deborah M. Finch

    2017-01-01

    Aridland riparian ecosystems are limited, the climate is changing, and further hydrological change is likely in the American Southwest. To protect riparian ecosystems and organisms, we need to understand how they are affected by disturbance processes and stressors such as fire, drought, and non-native plant invasions. Riparian vegetation is critically important as...

  13. Modeling Nitrogen Losses in Conventional and Advanced Soil-Based Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems under Current and Changing Climate Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Ivan; Cooper, Jennifer; Amador, José A; Boving, Thomas B

    2016-01-01

    Most of the non-point source nitrogen (N) load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Nitrogen compounds cause eutrophication, depleting the oxygen in marine ecosystems. OWTS rely on physical, chemical and biological soil processes to treat wastewater and these processes may be affected by climate change. We simulated the fate and transport of N in different types of OWTS drainfields, or soil treatment areas (STA) under current and changing climate scenarios, using 2D/3D HYDRUS software. Experimental data from a mesocosm-scale study, including soil moisture content, and total N, ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-) concentrations, were used to calibrate the model. A water content-dependent function was used to compute the nitrification and denitrification rates. Three types of drainfields were simulated: (1) a pipe-and-stone (P&S), (2) advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (PSND) and (3) Geomat (GEO), a variation of SND. The model was calibrated with acceptable goodness-of-fit between the observed and measured values. Average root mean square error (RSME) ranged from 0.18 and 2.88 mg L-1 for NH4+ and 4.45 mg L-1 to 9.65 mg L-1 for NO3- in all drainfield types. The calibrated model was used to estimate N fluxes for both conventional and advanced STAs under current and changing climate conditions, i.e. increased soil temperature and higher water table. The model computed N losses from nitrification and denitrification differed little from measured losses in all STAs. The modeled N losses occurred mostly as NO3- in water outputs, accounting for more than 82% of N inputs in all drainfields. Losses as N2 were estimated to be 10.4% and 9.7% of total N input concentration for SND and Geo, respectively. The highest N2 losses, 17.6%, were estimated for P&S. Losses as N2 increased to 22%, 37% and 21% under changing climate conditions for Geo, PSND and P&S, respectively. These findings can provide practitioners

  14. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    An increased uptake of alternative low or non-CO2 emitting energy sources is one of the key priorities for policy makers to mitigate the effects of environmental change. Relatively little work has been undertaken on the mitigation potential of Ground Coupled Heat Pumps (GCHPs) despite the fact that a GCHP could significantly reduce CO2 emissions from heating systems. It is predicted that under climate change the most probable scenario is for UK temperatures to increase and for winter rainfall to become more abundant; the latter is likely to cause a general rise in groundwater levels. Summer rainfall may reduce considerably, while vegetation type and density may change. Furthermore, recent studies underline the likelihood of an increase in the number of heat waves. Under such a scenario, GCHPs will increasingly be used for cooling as well as heating. These factors will affect long-term performance of horizontal GCHP systems and hence their economic viability and mitigation potential during their life span ( 50 years). The seasonal temperature differences encountered in soil are harnessed by GCHPs to provide heating in the winter and cooling in the summer. The performance of a GCHP system will depend on technical factors (heat exchanger (HE) type, length, depth, and spacing of pipes), but also it will be determined to a large extent by interactions between the below-ground parts of the system and the environment (atmospheric conditions, vegetation and soil characteristics). Depending on the balance between extraction and rejection of heat from and to the ground, the soil temperature in the neighbourhood of the HE may fall or rise. The GROMIT project (GROund coupled heat pumps MITigation potential), funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (UK), is a multi-disciplinary research project, in collaboration with EarthEnergy Ltd., which aims to quantify the CO2 mitigation potential of horizontal GCHPs. It considers changing environmental conditions and combines

  15. Assessing the importance of spatio-temporal RCM resolution when estimating sub-daily extreme precipitation under current and future climate conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Luchner, J.; Onof, C.

    2017-01-01

    extreme precipitation over Denmark generated by the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM-ECEARTH at different spatial resolutions (8, 12, 25 and 50km), three RCM from the RiskChange project at 8km resolution and three RCMs from ENSEMBLES at 25km resolution at temporal aggregations from 1 to 48h...... are more skewed than the observational dataset, which leads to an overestimation by the higher spatial resolution simulations. Nevertheless, in general, under current conditions RCM simulations at high spatial resolution represent extreme events and high-order moments better. The changes projected...

  16. A Comparative Frequency Analysis of Maximum Daily Rainfall for a SE Asian Region under Current and Future Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Velautham Daksiya

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of changing climate on the frequency of daily rainfall extremes in Jakarta, Indonesia, is analysed and quantified. The study used three different models to assess the changes in rainfall characteristics. The first method involves the use of the weather generator LARS-WG to quantify changes between historical and future daily rainfall maxima. The second approach consists of statistically downscaling general circulation model (GCM output based on historical empirical relationships between GCM output and station rainfall. Lastly, the study employed recent statistically downscaled global gridded rainfall projections to characterize climate change impact rainfall structure. Both annual and seasonal rainfall extremes are studied. The results show significant changes in annual maximum daily rainfall, with an average increase as high as 20% in the 100-year return period daily rainfall. The uncertainty arising from the use of different GCMs was found to be much larger than the uncertainty from the emission scenarios. Furthermore, the annual and wet seasonal analyses exhibit similar behaviors with increased future rainfall, but the dry season is not consistent across the models. The GCM uncertainty is larger in the dry season compared to annual and wet season.

  17. A novel bioenergy feedstock in Latin America? Cultivation potential of Acrocomia aculeata under current and future climate conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plath, Mirco; Moser, Christine; Bailis, Rob; Brandt, Patric; Hirsch, Heidi; Klein, Alexandra Maria; Walmsley, David; Wehrden, von Henrik

    2016-01-01

    Plant oil is a key commodity in the global economy, particularly for food and bioenergy markets. However, current production practices often impair smallholder livelihoods, cause land use changes, and compete for food production. The neotropical palm Acrocomia aculeata is currently being promoted

  18. Large scale groundwater flow and hexavalent chromium transport modeling under current and future climatic conditions: the case of Asopos River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dokou, Zoi; Karagiorgi, Vasiliki; Karatzas, George P; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos P; Kalogerakis, Nicolas

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, high concentrations of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), have been observed in the groundwater system of the Asopos River Basin, raising public concern regarding the quality of drinking and irrigation water. The work described herein focuses on the development of a groundwater flow and Cr(VI) transport model using hydrologic, geologic, and water quality data collected from various sources. An important dataset for this goal comprised an extensive time series of Cr(VI) concentrations at various locations that provided an indication of areas of high concentration and also served as model calibration locations. Two main sources of Cr(VI) contamination were considered in the area: anthropogenic contamination originating from Cr-rich industrial wastes buried or injected into the aquifer and geogenic contamination from the leaching process of ophiolitic rocks. The aquifer's response under climatic change scenario A2 was also investigated for the next two decades. Under this scenario, it is expected that rainfall, and thus infiltration, will decrease by 7.7 % during the winter and 15 % during the summer periods. The results for two sub-scenarios (linear and variable precipitation reduction) that were implemented based on A2 show that the impact on the study aquifer is moderate, resulting in a mean level decrease less than 1 m in both cases. The drier climatic conditions resulted in higher Cr(VI) concentrations, especially around the industrial areas.

  19. Ocean climate and seal condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crocker Daniel E

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The condition of many marine mammals varies with fluctuations in productivity and food supply in the ocean basin where they forage. Prey is impacted by physical environmental variables such as cyclic warming trends. The weaning weight of northern elephant seal pups, Mirounga angustirostris, being closely linked to maternal condition, indirectly reflects prey availability and foraging success of pregnant females in deep waters of the northeastern Pacific. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of ocean climate on foraging success in this deep-diving marine mammal over the course of three decades, using cohort weaning weight as the principal metric of successful resource accrual. Results The mean annual weaning weight of pups declined from 1975 to the late 1990s, a period characterized by a large-scale, basin-wide warm decadal regime that included multiple strong or long-duration El Niños; and increased with a return to a cool decadal regime from about 1999 to 2004. Increased foraging effort and decreased mass gain of adult females, indicative of reduced foraging success and nutritional stress, were associated with high ocean temperatures. Conclusion Despite ranging widely and foraging deeply in cold waters beyond coastal thermoclines in the northeastern Pacific, elephant seals are impacted significantly by ocean thermal dynamics. Ocean warming redistributes prey decreasing foraging success of females, which in turn leads to lower weaning mass of pups. Annual fluctuations in weaning mass, in turn, reflect the foraging success of females during the year prior to giving birth and signals changes in ocean temperature cycles.

  20. Empirical methods for estimating future climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    Applying the empirical approach permits the derivation of estimates of the future climate that are nearly independent of conclusions based on theoretical (model) estimates. This creates an opportunity to compare these results with those derived from the model simulations of the forthcoming changes in climate, thus increasing confidence in areas of agreement and focusing research attention on areas of disagreements. The premise underlying this approach for predicting anthropogenic climate change is based on associating the conditions of the climatic optimums of the Holocene, Eemian, and Pliocene with corresponding stages of the projected increase of mean global surface air temperature. Provided that certain assumptions are fulfilled in matching the value of the increased mean temperature for a certain epoch with the model-projected change in global mean temperature in the future, the empirical approach suggests that relationships leading to the regional variations in air temperature and other meteorological elements could be deduced and interpreted based on use of empirical data describing climatic conditions for past warm epochs. Considerable care must be taken, of course, in making use of these spatial relationships, especially in accounting for possible large-scale differences that might, in some cases, result from different factors contributing to past climate changes than future changes and, in other cases, might result from the possible influences of changes in orography and geography on regional climatic conditions over time

  1. Climatic growing conditions of Jatropha curcas L.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maes, W.H.; Achten, W.M.J.; Muys, B. [Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, Celestijnenlaan 200 E Box 2411, BE-3001 Leuven (Belgium); Trabucco, A. [Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, Celestijnenlaan 200 E Box 2411, BE-3001 Leuven (Belgium); International Water Management Institute (IWMI), P.O. Box 2075, Colombo (Sri Lanka)

    2009-10-15

    The massive investment in new jatropha plantations worldwide is not sufficiently based on a profound scientific knowledge of its ecology. In this article, we define the climatic conditions in its area of natural distribution by combining the locations of herbarium specimens with corresponding climatic information, and compare these conditions with those in 83 jatropha plantations worldwide. Most specimens (87%) were found in tropical savannah and monsoon climates (A{sub m}, A{sub w}) and in temperate climates without dry season and with hot summer (C{sub fa}), while very few were found in semi-arid (B{sub S}) and none in arid climates (B{sub W}). Ninety-five percent of the specimens grew in areas with a mean annual rainfall above 944 mm year{sup -1} and an average minimum temperature of the coldest month (T{sub min}) above 10.5 C. The mean annual temperature range was 19.3-27.2 C. The climatic conditions at the plantations were different from those of the natural distribution specimens for all studied climatic variables, except average maximum temperature in the warmest month. Roughly 40% of the plantations were situated in regions with a drier climate than in 95% of the area of the herbarium specimens, and 28% of the plantations were situated in areas with T{sub min} below 10.5 C. The observed precipitation preferences indicate that jatropha is not common in regions with arid and semi-arid climates. Plantations in arid and semi-arid areas hold the risk of low productivity or irrigation requirement. Plantations in regions with frost risk hold the risk of damage due to frost. (author)

  2. Climate conditions in bedded confinement buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Confinement buildings are utilized for finishing cattle to allow more efficient collection of animal waste and to buffer animals against adverse climatic conditions. Environmental data were obtained from a 29 m wide x 318 m long bedded confinement building with the long axis oriented east to west. T...

  3. Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

  4. Wind energy under cold climate conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maribo Pedersen, B.

    1999-03-01

    There is an increasing interest in wind energy production under different climatic conditions, among them cold climate and icing conditions. More and more wind turbines are being installed in cold climates and even adapted technology has been developed for that environment. Various national activities are going on in at least Finland, Canada, Italy, Sweden, etc. and international collaboration has been carried out within the European Union's Non-nuclear energy programme. Wind turbine operation is affected by both the cold temperatures and the formation of ice on the blades and the supporting structure. Cold temperatures can be handled by material selections known in other technical fields but to prevent icing, new techniques have to be - and have been - developed. Icing affects the reliability of anemometers, which concerns both turbine control and resource estimation, and changes the aerodynamics of the blades, which eventually stops the turbine. In addition, occasional icing events can locally affect public safety. The development of applied technology has entered some different paths and different solutions are tried out. As the applications are entering a commercial phase, these is a request to gather the experiences and monitor the reliability in a form that can be utilised by developers, manufactureres, consultants and other tenderers. The Topical Experts Meeting will focus on site classification, operational experiences, modelling and mesurements of ice induced loads and safety aspects. (EHS)

  5. Performance of desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy under different climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Agouz, S.A.; Kabeel, A.E.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The performance of the hybrid air conditioning system is studied. • The influence of important operating parameters are estimated. • The ventilation, makeup and mix cycles are investigated at different climate. • The highest COP of the hybrid air conditioning system is 1.03. • The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates. - Abstract: Energy saving still and continue a major seek in our life, due to the continuous increase in energy consumptions. So, a desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy is conducted in the current study. The thermal analysis of air conditioning system with its different components desiccant wheel, solar collector, heat exchanger, ground heat exchanger and water spray evaporative cooler is presented. Three different air conditioning cycles are simulated in the current study for different zones like: hot-dry zone, warm-dry zone, hot-humid zone and the warm-humid zone. The results show that the desiccant air conditioning system successfully provides a better thermal comfort condition in different climates. This hybrid system significantly decreases the supplied air temperature from 12.7 to 21.7 °C at different climate zones. When ω in , air and T Reg increasing, COP decreases and the ventilation cycle provides the better COP. The highest COP value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 1.03 while the lowest value is about 0.15. The SHR of makeup cycle is higher than that ventilation cycle at warm and hot-humid zone and vice versa at warm and hot-dry zone. The highest SHR value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 0.99 while the lowest value is about 0.2. The T sup,air , ω sup,air , COP and SHR isolines may easily be used for pre-evaluating of various cooling cycles in different climates. The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates

  6. Regional Wave Climates along Eastern Boundary Currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semedo, Alvaro; Soares, Pedro

    2016-04-01

    Two types of wind-generated gravity waves coexist at the ocean surface: wind sea and swell. Wind sea waves are waves under growing process. These young growing waves receive energy from the overlaying wind and are strongly coupled to the local wind field. Waves that propagate away from their generation area and no longer receive energy input from the local wind are called swell. Swell waves can travel long distances across entire ocean basins. A qualitative study of the ocean waves from a locally vs. remotely generation perspective is important, since the air sea interaction processes is strongly modulated by waves and vary accordingly to the prevalence of wind sea or swell waves in the area. A detailed climatology of wind sea and swell waves along eastern boundary currents (EBC; California Current, Canary Current, in the Northern Hemisphere, and Humboldt Current, Benguela Current, and Western Australia Current, in the Southern Hemisphere), based on the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-Interim reanalysis will be presented. The wind regime along EBC varies significantly from winter to summer. The high summer wind speeds along EBC generate higher locally generated wind sea waves, whereas lower winter wind speeds in these areas, along with stronger winter extratropical storms far away, lead to a predominance of swell waves there. In summer, the coast parallel winds also interact with coastal headlands, increasing the wind speed through a process called "expansion fan", which leads to an increase in the height of locally generated waves downwind of capes and points. Hence the spatial patterns of the wind sea or swell regional wave fields are shown to be different from the open ocean along EBC, due to coastal geometry and fetch dimensions. Swell waves will be shown to be considerably more prevalent and to carry more energy in winter along EBC, while in summer locally generated wind sea waves are either more comparable to swell waves or

  7. Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

  8. Georgian climate change under global warming conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Elizbarashvili

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

  9. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  10. Quadrant I description of current conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-09-01

    In accordance with the requirements of the Consent Decree issued by the Ohio Attorney General's office on August 29, 1989 and with the RCRA Section 3008(h) Consent Order issued by the US Environmental Protection Agency, Region V (USEPA) on September 29, 1989, this report, which provides a Description of Current Conditions within Quadrant I of the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS) located in Piketon, Ohio, has been developed and submitted for approval. The objectives of this report are to provide data concerning: (1) the current state of knowledge of the environmental setting of Quadrant I of PORTS including ground water, surface water, soil and air; and (2) the extent of known, potential and suspected contamination of these segments of the environment in Quadrant I of the facility. This report is the initial step in the comprehensive RCRA Facility Investigation (RFI) currently underway at PORTS, and will provide a foundation for all subsequent activities related to the RFI in Quadrant I

  11. Automatically Maintain Climatic Conditions inside Agricultural Greenhouses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Jasim Ramadhan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In this work, a novel system is designed to remote monitor / automatic control of the temperature, humidity and soil moisture of the agricultural greenhouses. In the proposed system, the author used the mentioned sensors for monitoring the climatic conditions of the agricultural greenhouses; and the system makes a controlling process to fix the required parameters for plant growth by running / stopping the fan, air exchanger and irrigation devices when any changes happened in these parameters. The presented system is based on XBee protocol in the implemented wireless sensor star topology network (WSN to monitor the agricultural greenhouses in real time, and used the GSM and Internet technologies to monitor the agricultural greenhouses from anywhere.

  12. Climate and current anthropogenic impacts on fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2013-01-01

    . As with terrestrial systems, it will not be easy to find acceptable balances between food production and conservation objectives. Climate change imposes a new set of pressures on marine ecosystems; increasing temperature, reduced salinity in some enclosed seas and coastal areas, changing windfields and seasonality...... of research that will help us to adapt and on the development of practices and management that will insure against future change...

  13. Relationship between climate conditions and nosocomial infection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    EB

    Conclusion: To decrease NIRs and improve health care quality, it is necessary to strengthen the control of ... level, etc.) and environmental factors (climatic ... those in developing countries the wards are generally ... Therefore, effects of ambient.

  14. Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Niemitz, Franziska; Reineking, Björn; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

    2011-07-01

    During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus ( Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91). In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps

  15. Diverging responses of tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Tovar

    Full Text Available Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%-17.4%, there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar

  16. Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, T. A. M.; Mueller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

  17. Climate change impacts in Northern Canada: Assessing our current knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gill, M.J.; Eamer, J. [Environment Canada, Environmental Conservation Branch, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Munier, A.; Ogden, A. [Yukon College, Northern Climate ExChange, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Duerden, F. [Ryerson University, School of Applied Geography, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hik, D. [Alberta Univ., Dept. of Biological Sciences, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Fox, S.; Riedlinger, D.; Thorpe, N. [GeoNorth Limited, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Johnson, I.; Jensen, M. [Legend Seekers Anthropological Research, Whitehorse, YT (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    A research project by the Northern Climate ExChange at Yukon College, undertaken to bring together into one document all relevant information that will help facilitate the identification of priorities for climate change research, monitoring, technological development and policy development in Canada's North, is described. In addition to the report, project deliverables also include a database of climate change information sources and a database of northern climate change contacts. The review includes scientific, local and Traditional Knowledge sources relating to climate change about each of seventeen natural and human systems (e.g. boreal forests, community health, mining, etc.), synthesized into a table for each system, with projected environmental changes crossed in matrix format with system components. Each cross-relationship was given a ranking; supporting information was included, based on the current state of knowledge of that relationship. In general, current information concerning northern systems, predicted climate changes and the impacts of those changes on northern systems is poor. However, much information does exist and the gap analysis revealed a number of general patterns relating to this information. Clearly, more research is required throughout northern Canada, but in particular, in the eastern Arctic, to provide a greater understanding of the implications of climate changes across the North, and to aid in the development of finer-scale, regional circulation models resulting in better predictive capacity of climate change and its impacts on northern areas.

  18. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2015-08-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

  19. Relationship between climate conditions and nosocomial infection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Nosocomial infections constitute a global health problem. Objective: To explore the relationship between nosocomial infection rates (NIRs) and climatic factors including temperature and relative humidity in Guangzhou area of China. Methods: 30892 patients in our hospital in 2009 were investigated for ...

  20. Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Weiler, Markus; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    Estimation of drought in a certain temporal and spatial scale is crucial in climate change studies. The current study targets on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece, Ardas River Basin in Northeastern Greece, Sperchios River Basin in Central Greece, and Geropotamos River Basin in Crete Island in South Greece that are characterized by diverse climates as they are located in various regions. The objective is to assess the spatiotemporal variation of drought conditions prevailing in these areas. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to identify and assess the present and future drought conditions. Future simulated data were derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES European Project. The analysis was performed for the future periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, implementing A1B and B1 scenarios. The spatial analysis of the drought conditions was performed using a combined downscaling technique and the Ordinary Kriging. The Mann-Kendall test was implemented for trend investigation. During both periods and scenarios, drought conditions will tend to be more severe in the upcoming years. The decrease of the SPI values in the Sperchios River Basin is expected to be the strongest, as it is the only study area that will show a negative balance (in SPI values), regarding the drought conditions. For the Ardas and the Geropotamos River Basins, a great increase of the drought conditions will occur during the 2021-2050 period, while for 2071-2100 period, the decrease will continue but it will be tempered. Nevertheless, the situation in all study areas according to the SPI classification is characterized as "Near-normal", in terms of drought conditions.

  1. Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tölle, Merja H.; Schefczyk, Lukas; Gutjahr, Oliver

    2017-11-01

    A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

  2. Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, Miroslav; Olesen, J. E.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Skjelvag, A. O.; Eitzinger, J.; Seguin, B.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Rotter, R.; Iglesias, A.; Orlandini, S.; Dubrovský, Martin; Hlavinka, P.; Balek, J.; Eckersten, H.; Cloppet, E.; Calanca, P.; Vucetic, V.; Nejedlík, P.; Kumar, S.; Lalic, B.; Mestre, A.; Rossi, F.; Kozyra, J.; Alexandrov, V.; Semerádová, D.; Žalud, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 7 (2011), s. 2298-2318 ISSN 1354-1013 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520; CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : agroclimatic extremes * agroclimatic index * climate- change impacts * crop production * environmental zones Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 6.862, year: 2011

  3. Effects of Climate on the Zooplankton of the California Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavaniegos, B. E.

    2007-05-01

    Almost six decades of sampling of the California Current system, carried out by the CalCOFI program (California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation) complemented by a decade of observations from the IMECOCAL program (Investigaciones Mexicanas de la Corriente de California), have revealed changing patterns in zooplankton abundances, species composition, and distributions over interannual through multidecadal time scales. Interannual changes associated with ENSO variability are manifested as strong but transitory perturbations in the mean annual cycle in seasonal abundances (and distributions) of particular species. An investigation of longer- term change, limited to the region off southern California, shows a persistent decline in zooplankton volumes (a proxy for overall biomass of macrozooplankton) between 1977 and 1998 that is considered to be a response to the well documented shift in basin-scale climate forcing that occurred in 1976-77. Further examination of this decline in zooplankton volumes indicates that it was due principally to the disappearance of several salp species after 1977. Other species and functional groups did not decline after the change in climate regime, while some species have followed persistent secular trends that appear to be associated more with the phenomenon of long-term global warming. Differences in the regional responses to climate change throughout the California Current system have also been observed recently in the spatial distribution of zooplankton biomass and changes in latitudinal ranges of certain species. For example, zooplankton biomass in the Baja California region show typical values for the 1997-98 El Niño that were followed by a decrease during the sharp transition to the cool La Niña conditions in 1999. This contrasts with the nearby region off southern California that was characterized by reduced biomass during the El Niño period and the subsequent recovery during the La Niña. Another regional contrast in

  4. Power engineering under conditions of climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wajs, K.

    1993-01-01

    One of the climatic phenomena fairly well connected with power engineering in the so called greenhouse effect. It is caused by increase of emission to the atmosphere of the so called greenhouse gases, especially CO 2 . Mechanism of this phenomenon and the relevant observations are discussed. Basic models of the circulation of greenhouse gases are outlined and the relevant conclusions as to various probable results, especially for a large time scale, are given. Tasks in the area of power engineering activity in the present situation are described. (author). 19 refs

  5. Climate change impacts in Iran: assessing our current knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, Jaber; Malekian, Arash; Khalili, Ali

    2018-02-01

    During recent years, various studies have focused on investigating the direct and indirect impacts of climate changes in Iran while the noteworthy fact is the achievement gained by these researches. Furthermore, what should be taken into consideration is whether these studies have been able to provide appropriate opportunities for improving further studies in this particular field or not. To address these questions, this study systematically reviewed and summarized the current available literature (n = 150) regarding the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Iran to assess our current state of knowledge. The results revealed that while all studies discuss the probable changes in temperature and precipitation over the next decades, serious contradictions could be seen in their results; also, the general pattern of changes was different in most of the cases. This matter may have a significant effect on public beliefs in climate change, which can be a serious warning for the activists in this realm.

  6. Sales down due to particularly mild climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Paris, 27 July 2007 - For the six months to 30 June 2007, Gaz de France's consolidated sales amounted to euro 13,778 million, down 11 per cent compared to the same period in 2006. This performance continues the trend seen over the first quarter of 2007 and in particular reflects the continuation into the second quarter of the climatic factors that affected the start of the year: an exceptionally warm 2006/2007 winter, followed by a spring season with particularly high temperatures. The average temperature of the first half of 2007 corresponds to a heat risk of less than one per cent, meaning that the probability of such a temperature taking place is less than one per cent. Over the first half of the year, volumes distributed in France were down by 25 TWh compared to a comparable period with average weather conditions, whereas in 2006 they were 15 TWh above average. The impact of the weather had similar effects outside of France. Under average weather conditions, the downturn in Group sales was limited to only 0.8 per cent mainly due to market conditions made difficult by the climate, leading to a lower level of gas production and arbitrage activities. Over the first six months of 2007, the Group sought to: - Continue to strengthen its international presence, currently with euro 5,602 million in sales outside of France. The percentage of sales generated outside of France represented 41 per cent of the Group total at the end of June 2007 and increased by 4 percentage points between the first half of 2006 and the first half of 2007. - Prepare for the deregulation of the markets on 1 July 2007 and a new commercial policy for retail customers that has been built around multi-energy and multi-service market offerings. - Create a new subsidiary for the distribution, a process which will be effective at the end of the year as announced. In spite of this unfavourable context, the Group maintains the financial objective for 2007 presented with the 2006 accounts: '2007 will

  7. Sales down due to particularly mild climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    Paris, 27 July 2007 - For the six months to 30 June 2007, Gaz de France's consolidated sales amounted to euro 13,778 million, down 11 per cent compared to the same period in 2006. This performance continues the trend seen over the first quarter of 2007 and in particular reflects the continuation into the second quarter of the climatic factors that affected the start of the year: an exceptionally warm 2006/2007 winter, followed by a spring season with particularly high temperatures. The average temperature of the first half of 2007 corresponds to a heat risk of less than one per cent, meaning that the probability of such a temperature taking place is less than one per cent. Over the first half of the year, volumes distributed in France were down by 25 TWh compared to a comparable period with average weather conditions, whereas in 2006 they were 15 TWh above average. The impact of the weather had similar effects outside of France. Under average weather conditions, the downturn in Group sales was limited to only 0.8 per cent mainly due to market conditions made difficult by the climate, leading to a lower level of gas production and arbitrage activities. Over the first six months of 2007, the Group sought to: - Continue to strengthen its international presence, currently with euro 5,602 million in sales outside of France. The percentage of sales generated outside of France represented 41 per cent of the Group total at the end of June 2007 and increased by 4 percentage points between the first half of 2006 and the first half of 2007. - Prepare for the deregulation of the markets on 1 July 2007 and a new commercial policy for retail customers that has been built around multi-energy and multi-service market offerings. - Create a new subsidiary for the distribution, a process which will be effective at the end of the year as announced. In spite of this unfavourable context, the Group maintains the financial objective for 2007 presented with the 2006 accounts: &apos

  8. Comments on Current Space Systems Observing the Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, L. A.

    2016-07-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which was established in 1992, has been effective in specifying the observations needed for climate studies, and advocating that these observations be made. As a result, there are essential climate variables being observed, particularly from space, and these have formed the basis for our ever-improving models of how the Earth system functions and the human impact on it. We cannot conclude, however, that the current observing system in space is adequate. Climate change is accelerating, and we need to ensure that our observations capture, with completeness and with proper resolution and cadence, the most important changes. Perhaps of most significance, we need to use observations from space to guide the mitigation and adaptation strategies on which at last our civilization seems prepared to embark. And we need to use our observations to educate particularly policy makers on the reality of climate change, so that none deny the need to act. COSPAR is determined to play its part in highlighting the need to strengthen the climate observing system and notably its research component. This is being accomplished through events like the present roundtable, through the work of its Scientific Commission A, its Task Group on GEO (where COSPAR is serving as a member of its Program Board), and by promoting among space agencies and policy-makers the recently released scientific roadmap on Integrated Earth System Science for the period 2016-2025.

  9. Preventive Vaccination in Russia under Current Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Kaplina

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the vaccination not only does not lose its value, but also becoming more in-demand allowing to prevent mass infection, disability, and mortality due to them, oncological and somatic diseases. The variety of medicinal vaccines is actively developed. The particular importance is given to the vaccination as a key mean to prevent the antibiotic resistance. That is why it is important for every health worker to know the up-to-date approaches to the immunization in whole, and especially for the risk groups, to understand and compare reasonably the risks of the infections and vaccinations, to be able to explain this to their patients and parents. The most important is a common understanding of the importance of the preventive vaccination of the health workers of all specialties and levels. 

  10. Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Molinos, J; Burrows, M T; Poloczanska, E S

    2017-05-02

    Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.

  11. Using climate model simulations to assess the current climate risk to maize production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Chris; Pope, Edward; Thompson, Vikki; Lewis, Kirsty; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick

    2017-05-01

    The relationship between the climate and agricultural production is of considerable importance to global food security. However, there has been relatively little exploration of climate-variability related yield shocks. The short observational yield record does not adequately sample natural inter-annual variability thereby limiting the accuracy of probability assessments. Focusing on the United States and China, we present an innovative use of initialised ensemble climate simulations and a new agro-climatic indicator, to calculate the risk of severe water stress. Combined, these regions provide 60% of the world’s maize, and therefore, are crucial to global food security. To probe a greater range of inter-annual variability, the indicator is applied to 1400 simulations of the present day climate. The probability of severe water stress in the major maize producing regions is quantified, and in many regions an increased risk is found compared to calculations from observed historical data. Analysis suggests that the present day climate is also capable of producing unprecedented severe water stress conditions. Therefore, adaptation plans and policies based solely on observed events from the recent past may considerably under-estimate the true risk of climate-related maize shocks. The probability of a major impact event occurring simultaneously across both regions—a multi-breadbasket failure—is estimated to be up to 6% per decade and arises from a physically plausible climate state. This novel approach highlights the significance of climate impacts on crop production shocks and provides a platform for considerably improving food security assessments, in the present day or under a changing climate, as well as development of new risk based climate services.

  12. DEVELOPMENT OF AUTOMATED SYSTEM OF CLIMATE CONDITIONS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novikova L.V.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The scientific work is devoted to the analysis and development of the automated control system of the climatic conditions of the minites. The analysis of existing automated control systems is carried out, in particular attention is paid to the systems of climate control of greenhouses. The technical means of the control system are determined. As a platform, Arduino®Uno is selected.

  13. Effect Of Climatic Conditions On Durability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahem M. Al Kiki

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Durability is one of the most important subjects in the soil stabilization. Since there is no specifications concerned the durability of lime stabilized soils, several factors were selected to show their effects on the durability, namely: wetting, drying, freezing, thawing and slaking.The effect of each one of the above factors as well as the combined effect of two or more factors, were studied on the volume change and soil strength and weight loss of soil samples stabilized with optimum lime content except the slaking test at which soil samples stabilized with different lime content.Tests results showed that the higher the lime content the lower the slaking effect, also its found the soil strength decreased when the period of immersion or freezing increased. The strength of the lime stabilized soils decreased when subjected to the cycles of wetting and drying or to the cycles freezing and thawing. However, the  combined effect of wetting, drying, freezing and thawing has a pronounced effect on reduction of the lime stabilized clayey soil. The worst condition recorded when lime stabilized soil undergo to freezing then drying then wetting which should be avoided in the field

  14. Will current probabilistic climate change information, as such, improve adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, A.; Smith, L. A.

    2012-04-01

    Probabilistic climate scenarios are currently being provided to end users, to employ as probabilities in adaptation decision making, with the explicit suggestion that they quantify the impacts of climate change relevant to a variety of sectors. These "probabilities" are, however, rather sensitive to the assumptions in, and the structure of the modelling approaches used to generate them. It is often argued that stakeholders require probabilistic climate change information to adequately evaluate and plan adaptation pathways. On the other hand, some circumstantial evidence suggests that on the ground decision making rarely uses well defined probability distributions of climate change as inputs. Nevertheless it is within this context of probability distributions of climate change that we discuss possible drawbacks of supplying information that, while presented as robust and decision relevant, , is in fact unlikely to be so due to known flaws both in the underlying models and in the methodology used to "account for" those known flaws. How might one use a probability forecast that is expected to change in the future, not due to a refinement in our information but due to fundamental flaws in its construction? What then are the alternatives? While the answer will depend on the context of the problem at hand, a good approach will be strongly informed by the timescale of the given planning decision, and the consideration of all the non-climatic factors that have to be taken into account in the corresponding risk assessment. Using a water resources system as an example, we illustrate an alternative approach to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today.

  15. Uncertainties in extreme precipitation under climate change conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

    of adaptation strategies, but these changes are subject to uncertainties. The focus of this PhD thesis is the quantification of uncertainties in changes in extreme precipitation. It addresses two of the main sources of uncertainty in climate change impact studies: regional climate models (RCMs) and statistical...... downscaling methods (SDMs). RCMs provide information on climate change at the regional scale. SDMs are used to bias-correct and downscale the outputs of the RCMs to the local scale of interest in adaptation strategies. In the first part of the study, a multi-model ensemble of RCMs from the European ENSEMBLES...... project was used to quantify the uncertainty in RCM projections over Denmark. Three aspects of the RCMs relevant for the uncertainty quantification were first identified and investigated. These are: the interdependency of the RCMs; the performance in current climate; and the change in the performance...

  16. US Drought-Heat Wave Relationships in Past Versus Current Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Eischeid, J.; Liu, Z.

    2017-12-01

    This study explores the relationship between droughts and heat waves over various regions of the contiguous United States that are distinguished by so-called energy-limited versus water-limited climatologies. We first examine the regional sensitivity of heat waves to soil moisture variability under 19th century climate conditions, and then compare to sensitivities under current climate that has been subjected to human-induced change. Our approach involves application of the conditional statistical framework of vine copula. Vine copula is known for its flexibility in reproducing various dependence structures exhibited by climate variables. Here we highlight its feature for evaluating the importance of conditional relationships between variables and processes that capture underlying physical factors involved in their interdependence during drought/heat waves. Of particular interest is identifying changes in coupling strength between heat waves and land surface conditions that may yield more extreme events as a result of land surface feedbacks. We diagnose two equilibrium experiments a coupled climate model (CESM1), one subjected to Year-1850 external forcing and the other to Year-2000 radiative forcing. We calculate joint heat wave/drought relationships for each climate state, and also calculate their change as a result of external radiative forcing changes across this 150-yr period. Our results reveal no material change in the dependency between heat waves and droughts, aside from small increases in coupling strength over the Great Plains. Overall, hot U.S. summer droughts of 1850-vintage do not become hotter in the current climate -- aside from the warming contribution of long-term climate change, in CESM1. The detectability of changes in hotter droughts as a consequence of anthropogenic forced changes in this single effect, i.e. coupling strength between soil moisture and hot summer temperature, is judged to be low at this time.

  17. Unusual climatic conditions and infectious diseases: observations made by Hippocrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falagas, Matthew E; Bliziotis, Ioannis A; Kosmidis, John; Daikos, George K

    2010-12-01

    About 2500 years ago, Hippocrates made noteworthy observations about the influence of climate on public health. He believed that people living in cities with different climate may suffer from different diseases. Hippocrates also observed that abrupt climatic changes or unusual weather conditions affect public health, especially the incidence and severity of various infectious diseases, including gastrointestinal infections, tuberculosis, and central nervous system infections. We believe that Hippocrates' scientific observations are great early historic examples that stress to modern infectious diseases researchers and clinicians the need to study intensively the effect of the occurring global climate changes to infectious diseases in order to help in the prevention of possible epidemics of infections. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  18. Improvement of greenhouse design and climate control in mediterranean conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuzel, Yuksel; Zwart, de Feije; Sapounas, A.; Hemming, Silke; Stanghellini, Cecilia

    2017-01-01

    The Mediterranean Region is one of the most important areas of the world in terms of protected cultivation. Turkey, with its increasing greenhouse area, is one of the representative countries of the region. Thanks to the mild winter climatic conditions, cultivation of vegetables under simple

  19. Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

  20. The current investment climate for midstream gas processing assets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brouwer, R.J.

    1999-01-01

    Topics discussed in this paper dealing with the current investment climate for midstream gas processing assets include: (1) strategic reasons to retain or divest midstream assets, (2) available options for midstream asset divestment, (3) midstream market fundamentals, and (4) financial performance of midstream companies. There are some 700 gas plants in Alberta at present, of which about 20 per cent are owned by midstream companies . About one half of the plants are smaller than 12.5 MMCFD which represent inefficient use of resources; a clear indication that there are substantial opportunities for consolidation. 1 tab., 4 figs

  1. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David; Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko; Rhen, Ingvar

    2010-12-01

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  2. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different climate conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Forsmark site during temperate conditions; i.e. from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 12,000 AD. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then in an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional', make use of continuous porous medium (CPM), equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) and discrete fracture network (DFN) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  3. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  4. The future bioclimatic conditions in Austria under the aspect of climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudel, E.; Matzarakis, A.; Neumke, R.; Endler, Ch,; Koch, E.

    2009-09-01

    The IPCC quantifies Heat Stress as a combination of air temperature and air humidity. In order to describe the future bioclimatic conditions in a human-biometeorological manner the analysis a modern thermal index has been chosen. The PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) allows the assessment of the effect of the thermal environment based on the energy balance of humans including thermo-physiological information. The data for the calculation of the PET came from climate models. The required data are for the climatic parameters air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and mean cloud cover as the necessary inputs for Physiologically Equivalents Temperature. Regarding future climatic changes PET calculations for the time slices 1961 and 1990 and also 2070 and 2100 have been run in 0.5 ° resolution. By the use of statistical regression for the 0.5 ° resolution the results have been downscaled to 1 km resolution in order to identify and quantify the areas in Austria, which will be more affected bioclimatologically. The constructed maps present current and future climatic conditions and also differences for the different time slices and SRES-scenarios of the IPCC. Maps of the difference between the Physiological Equivalent temperature and air temperature have been constructed to show that the used thermal indices, which have been applied by the IPCC underestimate the expected thermal bioclimate conditions for future climate. The results offer fundamental information for tourism and recreation authorities for present and expected climatic and bioclimatic conditions.

  5. Icing Conditions Over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulygina, O.; Arzhanova, N.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2013-12-01

    Climate of the Russian Federation for the national territory. This Reference Book addresses the current state of these weather phenomena. However, the ongoing and projected humidity changes in the high latitudes will strongly affect the circum-polar area (land and ocean) and impact the frequency and intensity of these potentially dangerous weather phenomena across the entire extratropical land area. Therefore the goal of the present study is to quantify icing conditions over the northern Eurasia. Our analysis includes data of 958 Russian stations from 1977 to 2012. Regional analysis of gololed characteristics was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. The area-averaging technique using station values converted to anomalies with respect to a common reference period (in this study, from 1977 to 2012). Anomalies were arithmetically averaged first within 1N x 2E grid cells and thereafter by a weighted average value derived over the quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. This approach provides a more uniform spatial field for averaging.

  6. Climate conditions, and changes, affect microalgae communities… should we worry?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimenez Papiol, Gemma

    2018-03-01

    Microalgae play a pivotal role in the regulation of Earth's climate and its cycles, but are also affected by climate change, mainly by changes in temperature, light, ocean acidification, water stratification, and precipitation-induced nutrient inputs. The changes and impacts on microalgae communities are difficult to study, predict, and manage, but there is no doubt that there will be changes. These changes will have impacts beyond microalgae communities, and many of them will be negative. Some actions are currently ongoing for the mitigation of some of the negative impacts, such as harmful algal blooms and water quality, but global efforts for reducing CO 2 emissions, temperature rises, and ocean acidification are paramount for reducing the impact of climate change on microalgae communities, and eventually, on human well-being. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:181-184. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

  7. Vertical climatic belts in the Tatra Mountains in the light of current climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Łupikasza, Ewa; Szypuła, Bartłomiej

    2018-04-01

    The paper discusses temporal changes in the configuration of vertical climatic belts in the Tatra Mountains as a result of current climate change. Meteorological stations are scarce in the Tatra Mountains; therefore, we modelled decadal air temperatures using existing data from 20 meteorological stations and the relationship between air temperature and altitude. Air temperature was modelled separately for northern and southern slopes and for convex and concave landforms. Decadal air temperatures were additionally used to delineate five climatic belts previously distinguished by Hess on the basis of threshold values of annual air temperature. The spatial extent and location of the borderline isotherms of 6, 4, 2, 0, and - 2 °C for four decades, including 1951-1960, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010, were compared. Significant warming in the Tatra Mountains, uniform in the vertical profile, started at the beginning of the 1980s and led to clear changes in the extent and location of the vertical climatic belts delineated on the basis of annual air temperature. The uphill shift of the borderline isotherms was more prominent on southern than on northern slopes. The highest rate of changes in the extent of the climatic belts was found above the isotherm of 0 °C (moderately cold and cold belts). The cold belt dramatically diminished in extent over the research period.

  8. Performance Based Evaluation of Concrete Strength under Various Curing Conditions to Investigate Climate Change Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae-Kyun Kim

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the manifestation of global warming-induced climate change has been observed through super typhoons, heavy snowfalls, torrential rains, and extended heat waves. These climate changes have been occurring all over the world and natural disasters have caused severe damage and deterioration of concrete structures and infrastructure. In an effort to deal with these problems due to extreme and abnormal climate changes, studies have been conducted to develop construction technologies and design guidelines. Nevertheless, study results applicable to construction sites continue to be ineffective and insufficient. Therefore, this study proposes ways to cope with climate change by considering the effect of concrete curing condition variations on concrete material performance. More specifically, the 3-, 7- and 28-day compressive and split tensile strength properties of concrete mix cured under various climatic factors including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunlight exposure time were evaluated to determine whether the concrete meets the current design requirements. Thereafter, a performance based evaluation (PBE was performed using satisfaction probabilities based on the test values to understand the problems associated with the current mix proportion design practice and to identify countermeasures to deal with climate change-induced curing conditions.

  9. Effects of future climate conditions on terrestrial export from coastal southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project (SBC-LTER) is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export is a central theme for the project. Here we combine the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model and daily precipitation and temperature downscaled using statistical downscaling based on localized constructed Analogs (LOCA) to estimate recent streamflow dynamics (2000 to 2014) and future conditions (2015 to 2100). The HRR model covers the SBC-LTER watersheds from just west of the Ventura River to Point Conception; a land area of roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The downscaled climate conditions have a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. Here, we use the Penman-Monteith method with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET). The HRR model is calibrated for the period 2000 to 2014 using USGS and LTER streamflow. An automated calibration technique is used. For future climate scenarios, we use mean 8-day land cover conditions. Future streamflow, ET and soil moisture statistics are presented and based on downscaled P and T from ten climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).

  10. Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: Current UV Index Forecast Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Service NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team Disclaimer

  11. Climate Change Vulnerability and Resilience: Current Status and Trends for Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibarraran , Maria E.; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-12-30

    Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity towards new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent studies (Moss et al. 2000, Brenkert and Malone 2005, Malone and Brenket 2008, Ibarrarán et al. 2007), the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity and environmental capacity.

  12. Ceramic production during changing environmental/climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oestreich, Daniela B.; Glasmacher, Ulrich A.

    2015-04-01

    Ceramics, with regard to their status as largely everlasting everyday object as well as on the basis of their chronological sensitivity, reflect despite their simplicity the technological level of a culture and therefore also, directly or indirectly, the adaptability of a culture with respect to environmental and/or climatic changes. For that reason the question arises, if it is possible to identify changes in production techniques and raw material sources for ceramic production, as a response to environmental change, e.g. climate change. This paper will present results of a research about Paracas Culture (800 - 200 BC), southern Peru. Through several investigations (e.g. Schittek et al., 2014; Eitel and Mächtle, 2009) it is well known that during Paracas period changes in climate and environmental conditions take place. As a consequence, settlement patterns shifted several times through the various stages of Paracas time. Ceramics from three different sites (Jauranga, Cutamalla, Collanco) and temporal phases of the Paracas period are detailed archaeometric, geochemical and mineralogical characterized, e.g. Raman spectroscopy, XRD, and ICP-MS analyses. The aim of this research is to resolve potential differences in the chemical composition of the Paracas ceramics in space and time and to compare the data with the data sets of pre-Columbian environmental conditions. Thus influences of changing environmental conditions on human societies and their cultural conditions will be discussed. References Eitel, B. and Mächtle, B. 2009. Man and Environment in the eastern Atacama Desert (Southern Peru): Holocene climate changes and their impact on pre-Columbian cultures. In: Reindel, M. & Wagner, G. A. (eds.) New Technologies for Archaeology. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Schittek, K., Mächtle, B., Schäbitz, F., Forbriger, M., Wennrich, V., Reindel, M., and Eitel, B.. Holocene environmental changes in the highlands of the southern Peruvian Andes (14° S) and their

  13. The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. Li

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d1 and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to

  14. Drought Duration Biases in Current Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    Several droughts in the recent past are characterized by their increased duration and intensity. In particular, substantially prolonged droughts have brought major societal and economic losses in certain regions, yet climate change projections of such droughts in terms of duration is subject to large uncertainties. This study analyzes the biases of drought duration in state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Drought durations are defined as negative precipitation anomalies and evaluated with three observation-based datasets in the period of 1901-2010. Large spread in biases of GCMs is commonly found in all regions, with particular strong biases in North East Brazil, Africa, Northern Australia, Central America, Central and Northern Europe, Sahel and Asia. Also in most regions, the interquartile range of bias lies below 0, meaning that the GCMs tend to underestimate drought durations. Meanwhile in some regions such as Western South America, the Amazon, Sahel, West and South Africa, and Asia, considerable inconsistency among the three observation-based datasets were found. These results indicate substantial uncertainties and errors in current GCMs for simulating drought durations as well as a large spread in observation-based datasets, both of which are found to be particularly strong in those regions that are often considered to be hot spots of projected future drying. The underlying sources of these uncertainties need to be identified in further study and will be applied to constrain GCM-based drought projections under climate change.

  15. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases, the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time-span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

  16. Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

  17. Decision-Support System for Urban Air Pollution under Future Climate Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Jensen , Steen ,; Brandt , Jørgen; Hvidberg , Martin; Ketzel , Matthias; Hedegaard , Gitte ,; Christensen , Jens ,

    2011-01-01

    Part 6: Climate Services and Environmental Tools for Urban Planning and Climate Change Applications and Services; International audience; Climate change is expected to influence urban living conditions and challenge the ability of cities to adapt to and mitigate climate change. Urban climates will be faced with elevated temperatures and future climate conditions are expected to cause higher ozone concentrations, increased biogenic emissions from vegetation, changes in the chemistry of the atm...

  18. Environmental risk of climate change and groundwater abstraction on stream ecological conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige; Bøgh, Eva; Jensen, Niels H.

    with DAISY, a one dimensional crop model describing soil water dynamics in the root zone, and MIKE SHE, a distributed groundwater-surface water model. The relative and combined impacts on low flows, groundwater levels, and nitrate leaching are quantified and compared to assess the water resource sensitivity...... and risk to stream ecological conditions. We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher...... flows and groundwater levels are of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future...

  19. Modelling climate change impacts on stream habitat conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boegh, Eva; Conallin, John; Karthikeyan, Matheswaran

    Impact from groundwater abstraction on freshwater resources and ecosystems is an issue of sincere concern in Denmark and many other countries worldwide. In addition, climate change projections add complexity to the existing conflict between water demands to satisfy human needs and water demands...... required to conserve streams as biologically diverse and healthy ecosystems. Solutions to this intensifying conflict require a holistic approach whereby stream biota is related to their physical environment at catchment scale, as also demanded by the EU Water Framework Directive. In the present study......, climate impacts on stream ecological conditions were quantified by combining a heat and mass stream flow with a habitat suitability modelling approach. Habitat suitability indices were developed for stream velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrate. Generally, water depth was found...

  20. Changing climatic conditions in the Upper Thames River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonovic, S.P.

    2009-01-01

    'Full text:' Many climate change impact studies have been conducted using a top-down approach. First, outputs from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are considered which are downscaled in a second step to the river basin scale using either a statistical/empirical or a dynamic approach. The local climatic signal that is obtained is then used as input into a hydrological model to assess the direct consequences in the basin. Problems related to this approach include: a high degree of uncertainty associated with GCM outputs; and an increase in uncertainty due to the downscaling approach. An original inverse approach is developed in this work in order to improve the understanding of the processes leading to hydrological hazards, including both flood and drought events. The developed approach starts with the analysis of existing guidelines and management practices in a river basin with respect to critical hydrological exposures that may lead to failure of the water resources system or parts thereof. This implies that vulnerable components of the river basin have to be identified together with the risk exposure. In the next step the critical hydrologic exposures (flood levels for example) are transformed into corresponding critical meteorological conditions (extreme precipitation events for example). These local weather scenarios are then be statistically linked to possible large-scale climate conditions that are available from the GCMs. The developed procedure allows for the assessment of the vulnerability of river basins with respect to climate forcing. It also provides a tool for identifying the spatial distribution of the vulnerability and risk. Vulnerability is here characterized by the incremental losses, expressed either quantitatively or qualitatively, due to a change in the probability and magnitude of hazard events driven by climatic forcing. Vulnerability is seen as the basis for risk mitigation measures for hydrologic extremes at the basin level. The

  1. Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-11-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

  2. Upgrades, Current Capabilities and Near-Term Plans of the NASA ARC Mars Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, Melinda April; Haberle, Robert M.; Schaeffer, James R.

    2012-01-01

    We describe and review recent upgrades to the ARC Mars climate modeling framework, in particular, with regards to physical parameterizations (i.e., testing, implementation, modularization and documentation); the current climate modeling capabilities; selected research topics regarding current/past climates; and then, our near-term plans related to the NASA ARC Mars general circulation modeling (GCM) project.

  3. Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2018-01-01

    The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

  4. Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes

    KAUST Repository

    Wilson, S. K.; Adjeroud, M.; Bellwood, D. R.; Berumen, Michael L.; Booth, D.; Bozec, Y.-M.; Chabanet, P.; Cheal, A.; Cinner, J.; Depczynski, M.; Feary, D. A.; Gagliano, M.; Graham, N. A. J.; Halford, A. R.; Halpern, B. S.; Harborne, A. R.; Hoey, A. S.; Holbrook, S. J.; Jones, G. P.; Kulbiki, M.; Letourneur, Y.; De Loma, T. L.; McClanahan, T.; McCormick, M. I.; Meekan, M. G.; Mumby, P. J.; Munday, P. L.; Ohman, M. C.; Pratchett, M. S.; Riegl, B.; Sano, M.; Schmitt, R. J.; Syms, C.

    2010-01-01

    Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef

  5. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

  6. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

    2017-02-07

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  7. Challenges of using air conditioning in an increasingly hot climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundgren-Kownacki, Karin; Hornyanszky, Elisabeth Dalholm; Chu, Tuan Anh; Olsson, Johanna Alkan; Becker, Per

    2018-03-01

    At present, air conditioning (AC) is the most effective means for the cooling of indoor space. However, its increased global use is problematic for various reasons. This paper explores the challenges linked to increased AC use and discusses more sustainable alternatives. A literature review was conducted applying a transdisciplinary approach. It was further complemented by examples from cities in hot climates. To analyse the findings, an analytical framework was developed which considers four societal levels—individual, community, city, and national. The main challenges identified from the literature review are as follows: environmental, organisational, socio-economical, biophysical and behavioural. The paper also identifies several measures that could be taken to reduce the fast growth of AC use. However, due to the complex nature of the problem, there is no single solution to provide sustainable cooling. Alternative solutions were categorised in three broad categories: climate-sensitive urban planning and building design, alternative cooling technologies, and climate-sensitive attitudes and behaviour. The main findings concern the problems arising from leaving the responsibility to come up with cooling solutions entirely to the individual, and how different societal levels can work towards more sustainable cooling options. It is concluded that there is a need for a more holistic view both when it comes to combining various solutions as well as involving various levels in society.

  8. Collaborative Research for Water Resource Management under Climate Change Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brundiers, K.; Garfin, G. M.; Gober, P.; Basile, G.; Bark, R. H.

    2010-12-01

    We present an ongoing project to co-produce science and policy called Collaborative Planning for Climate Change: An Integrated Approach to Water-Planning, Climate Downscaling, and Robust Decision-Making. The project responds to motivations related to dealing with sustainability challenges in research and practice: (a) state and municipal water managers seek research that addresses their planning needs; (b) the scientific literature and funding agencies call for more meaningful engagement between science and policy communities, in ways that address user needs, while advancing basic research; and (c) empirical research contributes to methods for the design and implementation of collaborative projects. To understand how climate change might impact water resources and management in the Southwest US, our project convenes local, state, and federal water management practitioners with climate-, hydrology-, policy-, and decision scientists. Three areas of research inform this collaboration: (a) the role of paleo-hydrology in water resources scenario construction; (b) the types of uncertainties that impact decision-making beyond climate and modeling uncertainty; and (c) basin-scale statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate models to generate hydrologic projections for regional water resources planning. The project engages all participants in the research process, from research design to workshops that build capacity for understanding data generation and sources of uncertainty to the discussion of water management decision contexts. A team of “science-practice translators” facilitates the collaboration between academic and professional communities. In this presentation we contextualize the challenges and opportunities of use-inspired science-policy research collaborations by contrasting the initial project design with the process of implementation. We draw from two sources to derive lessons learned: literature on collaborative research, and evaluations provided by

  9. Biocrust spectral response as affected by changing climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Caballero, Emilio; Guirado, Emilio; Escribano, Paula; Reyes, Andres; Weber, Bettina

    2017-04-01

    Drylands are characterized by scarce vegetation coverage and low rates of biological activity, both constrained by water scarcity. Under these conditions, biocrusts form key players of ecosystem functioning. They comprise complex poikilohydric communities of cyanobacteria, algae, lichens and bryophytes together with heterotrophic bacteria, archaea and fungi, which cover the uppermost soil layer. Biocrusts can cope with prolonged phases of drought, being rapidly re-activated when water becomes available again. Upon reactivation, biocrusts almost immediately turn green, fixing atmospheric carbon and nitrogen and increasing ecosystem productivity. However, due to their inconspicuous growth they have only rarely been analysed and spatially and temporally continuous information on their response to water pulses is missing. These data are particularly important under changing climatic conditions predicting an increase in aridity and variations in precipitation patterns within most of the dryland regions. In the present study, we used multi-temporal series of NDVI obtained from LANDSAT images to analyze biocrust and vegetation response to water pulses within the South African Succulent Karoo and we predicted their future response under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that biocrust and vegetation greenness are controlled by aridity, solar radiation and soil water content, showing similar annual patterns, with minimum values during dry periods that increased within the rainy season and decreased again after the onset of drought. However, biocrusts responded faster to water availability and turned green almost immediately after small rains, producing a small NDVI peak only few days after rainfall, whereas more time was needed for vegetation to grow new green tissue. However, once the photosynthetic tissue of vegetation was restored, it caused the highest increase of NDVI values after the rain. Predicted changes in precipitation patterns and aridity

  10. The effects of climatic conditions on attitudinal changes towards ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    changes associated with climate change and climatic events. The .... influence of rainfall on differences in perceptions towards building materials in poor ...... in the form of flash floods, cloud bursts, or sudden climatic events. Unusually high or ...

  11. The Effects of Inter-annual Climate Variability on the Departures of Leatherback Marine Turtles from the California Current Ecosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Van Zerr, Vanessa E

    2013-01-01

    The Pacific Ocean is a highly variable environment, and changes in oceanographic conditions impact the distributions of many organisms. Inter-annual climate variability, especially the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, is known to have wide-ranging impacts on organisms in the California Current. Understanding the factors that drive changes in the spatial ecology of organisms, such as inter-annual climate variability, is essential in many cases for effective conservation. Leatherback marine turtle...

  12. Fault Current Characteristics of the DFIG under Asymmetrical Fault Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Xiao

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available During non-severe fault conditions, crowbar protection is not activated and the rotor windings of a doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG are excited by the AC/DC/AC converter. Meanwhile, under asymmetrical fault conditions, the electrical variables oscillate at twice the grid frequency in synchronous dq frame. In the engineering practice, notch filters are usually used to extract the positive and negative sequence components. In these cases, the dynamic response of a rotor-side converter (RSC and the notch filters have a large influence on the fault current characteristics of the DFIG. In this paper, the influence of the notch filters on the proportional integral (PI parameters is discussed and the simplified calculation models of the rotor current are established. Then, the dynamic performance of the stator flux linkage under asymmetrical fault conditions is also analyzed. Based on this, the fault characteristics of the stator current under asymmetrical fault conditions are studied and the corresponding analytical expressions of the stator fault current are obtained. Finally, digital simulation results validate the analytical results. The research results are helpful to meet the requirements of a practical short-circuit calculation and the construction of a relaying protection system for the power grid with penetration of DFIGs.

  13. Peculiarities of the risk management system organization in current conditions

    OpenAIRE

    MIKHIN P.O.

    2014-01-01

    Risk-management system organization problem is topical nowadays. The innovation activity is defined as an activity vulnerable to risk and needs more attention. The basic approaches and elements of organization structure development in risk-management system are considered to find out the best structure for business modelling usage. Balance and combination of risk-management system types are required in current conditions.

  14. A New Framework to Evaluate Urban Design Using Urban Microclimatic Modeling in Future Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dasaraden Mauree

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Building more energy-efficient and sustainable urban areas that will both mitigate the effects of climate change and anticipate living conditions in future climate scenarios requires the development of new tools and methods that can help urban planners, architects and communities achieve this goal. In the current study, we designed a workflow that links different methodologies developed separately, to derive the energy consumption of a university school campus for the future. Three different scenarios for typical future years (2039, 2069, 2099 were run, as well as a renovation scenario (Minergie-P. We analyzed the impact of climate change on the heating and cooling demand of buildings and determined the relevance of taking into account the local climate in this particular context. The results from the simulations confirmed that in the future, there will be a constant decrease in the heating demand, while the cooling demand will substantially increase. Significantly, it was further demonstrated that when the local urban climate was taken into account, there was an even higher rise in the cooling demand, but also that a set of proposed Minergie-P renovations were not sufficient to achieve resilient buildings. We discuss the implication of this work for the simulation of building energy consumption at the neighborhood scale and the impact of future local climate on energy system design. We finally give a few perspectives regarding improved urban design and possible pathways for future urban areas.

  15. Slarti: A boundary condition editor for a coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickelson, S. A.; Jacob, R. L.; Pierrehumbert, R.

    2006-12-01

    One of the largest barriers to making climate models more flexible is the difficulty in creating new boundary conditions, especially for "deep time" paleoclimate cases where continents are in different positions. Climate models consist of several mutually-interacting component models and the boundary conditions must be consistent between them. We have developed a program called Slarti which uses a Graphical User Interface and a set of consistency rules to aid researchers in creating new, consistent, boundary condition files for the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM). Users can start from existing mask, topography, or bathymetry data or can build a "world" entirely from scratch (e.g. a single island continent). Once a case has been started, users can modify mask, vegetation, bathymetry, topography, and river flow fields by drawing new data through a "paint" interface. Users activate a synchronization button which goes through the fields to eliminate inconsistencies. When the changes are complete and save is selected, Slarti creates all the necessary files for an initial run of FOAM. The data is edited at the highest resolution (the ocean-land surface in FOAM) and then interpolated to the atmosphere resolution. Slarti was implemented in Java to maintain portability across platforms. We also relied heavily on Java Swing components to create the interface. This allowed us to create an object-oriented interface that could be used on many different systems. Since Slarti allows users to visualize their changes, they are able to see areas that may cause problems when the model is ran. Some examples would be lakes from the river flow field and narrow trenches within the bathymetry. Through different checks and options available through its interface, Slarti makes the process of creating new boundary conditions for FOAM easier and faster while reducing the chance for user errors.

  16. Properties of volcanic soils in cold climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Elena

    2017-04-01

    Layers of volcanic ash and the Andosol soils derived from them may play an important role in preserving snow and ice as well as developing permafrost conditions in the immediate vicinity of volcanoes of high elevation or those situated at high latitudes, and land areas, often distant from volcanic activity that are either prone to permafrost or covered by snow and ice, but are affected by the deposition of subaerial ash. The special properties of volcanic ash that are responsible are critically reviewed particularly in relation to recent research in Kamchatka in the Far East of Russia. Of particular importance are the thermal properties and the unfrozen water contents of ash layers and the rate at which the weathering of volcanic glass takes place. Volcanic glass is the most easily weathered component of volcanic ejecta (Shoji et al., 1993; Kimble et al., 2000). There are many specific environmental conditions, including paleoclimate and present-day climate, the composition of volcanic tephra and glaciation history, which cause the differences in weathering and development of volcanic ash soils (Zehetner et al., 2003). The preservation of in situ, unweathered, and unaltered surficial ash-fall deposits in the cold regions has important implications for paleoclimate and glacial history. Ash-fall deposits, which trap and preserve the soils, sediments, and landforms on which they fall, can be used to resolve local climate conditions (temperature and moisture) at the ash site during ash-fall deposition. The preservation of detailed sedimentary features (e.g. bedding in the ash, sharpness of stratigraphic contacts) can tell us about their post-depositional history, whether they have been redeposited by wind or water, or overridden by glaciers (Marchant et al., 1996). Weathering of volcanic glass results in the development of amorphous clay minerals (e.g. allophane, opal, palagonite) but this takes place much slower in cold than under warmer climate conditions. Only few

  17. Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Matthew T; Tardieu, François; Dong, Zhanshan; Messina, Carlos D; Hammer, Graeme L

    2014-03-01

    Global climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, alter geographical patterns of rainfall and increase the frequency of extreme climatic events. Such changes are likely to alter the timing and magnitude of drought stresses experienced by crops. This study used new developments in the classification of crop water stress to first characterize the typology and frequency of drought-stress patterns experienced by European maize crops and their associated distributions of grain yield, and second determine the influence of the breeding traits anthesis-silking synchrony, maturity and kernel number on yield in different drought-stress scenarios, under current and future climates. Under historical conditions, a low-stress scenario occurred most frequently (ca. 40%), and three other stress types exposing crops to late-season stresses each occurred in ca. 20% of cases. A key revelation shown was that the four patterns will also be the most dominant stress patterns under 2050 conditions. Future frequencies of low drought stress were reduced by ca. 15%, and those of severe water deficit during grain filling increased from 18% to 25%. Despite this, effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth moderated detrimental effects of climate change on yield. Increasing anthesis-silking synchrony had the greatest effect on yield in low drought-stress seasonal patterns, whereas earlier maturity had the greatest effect in crops exposed to severe early-terminal drought stress. Segregating drought-stress patterns into key groups allowed greater insight into the effects of trait perturbation on crop yield under different weather conditions. We demonstrate that for crops exposed to the same drought-stress pattern, trait perturbation under current climates will have a similar impact on yield as that expected in future, even though the frequencies of severe drought stress will increase in future. These results have important ramifications for breeding of maize and have implications for

  18. Climate change and food security in Tanzania: analysis of current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A review of literature was conducted in order to identify knowledge gaps in climate change and food security research in Tanzania. The review focused on published literature covering the past 20 years addressing climate change effects on various components of the food security. The review of literature reveals, among ...

  19. Smart city planning under the climate change condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Dexiang; Zhao, Yue; Zhou, Xi

    2017-08-01

    With the aggravation of climate change, extreme weather events occur continuously, cities are not resilient to climate change, and we need to change the concept of urban planning, centering on climate research and its research achievements, combining with the modern intelligent technology and formulating a smart city that resilience to the climate change, realizing the sustainable development of human, city, environment and society.

  20. Projected climatic changes on drought conditions over Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Matilde; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

    2017-04-01

    In a context of global warming, the evapotranspiration processes will have a strong influence on drought severity. For this reason, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was computed at different timescales in order to explore the projected drought changes for the main watersheds in Spain. For that, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used in order to obtain current (1980-2010) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) climate output fields. WRF model was used over a domain that spans the Iberian Peninsula with a spatial resolution of 0.088°, and nested in the coarser 0.44° EURO-CORDEX domain, and driving by the global bias-corrected climate model output data from version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1), using two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Besides, to examine the behavior of this drought index, a comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which does not consider the evapotranspiration effects, was also performed. Additionally the relationship between the SPEI index and the soil moisture has also been analyzed. The results of this study suggest an increase in the severity and duration of drought, being larger when the SPEI index is used to define drought events. This fact confirms the relevance of taking into account the evapotranspiration processes to detect future drought events. The results also show a noticeable relationship between the SPEI and the simulated soil moisture content, which is more significant at higher timescales. Keywords: Drought, SPEI, SPI, Climatic change, Projections, WRF. Acknowledgements: This work has been financed by the projects P11-RNM-7941 (Junta de Andalucía-Spain) and CGL2013-48539-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER).

  1. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam E Vorsino

    Full Text Available Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75 as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1. This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  2. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  3. Dust Composition in Climate Models: Current Status and Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez García-Pando, C.; Miller, R. L.; Perlwitz, J. P.; Kok, J. F.; Scanza, R.; Mahowald, N. M.

    2015-12-01

    Mineral dust created by wind erosion of soil particles is the dominant aerosol by mass in the atmosphere. It exerts significant effects on radiative fluxes, clouds, ocean biogeochemistry, and human health. Models that predict the lifecycle of mineral dust aerosols generally assume a globally uniform mineral composition. However, this simplification limits our understanding of the role of dust in the Earth system, since the effects of dust strongly depend on the particles' physical and chemical properties, which vary with their mineral composition. Hence, not only a detailed understanding of the processes determining the dust emission flux is needed, but also information about its size dependent mineral composition. Determining the mineral composition of dust aerosols is complicated. The largest uncertainty derives from the current atlases of soil mineral composition. These atlases provide global estimates of soil mineral fractions, but they are based upon massive extrapolation of a limited number of soil samples assuming that mineral composition is related to soil type. This disregards the potentially large variability of soil properties within each defined soil type. In addition, the analysis of these soil samples is based on wet sieving, a technique that breaks the aggregates found in the undisturbed parent soil. During wind erosion, these aggregates are subject to partial fragmentation, which generates differences on the size distribution and composition between the undisturbed parent soil and the emitted dust aerosols. We review recent progress on the representation of the mineral and chemical composition of dust in climate models. We discuss extensions of brittle fragmentation theory to prescribe the emitted size-resolved dust composition, and we identify key processes and uncertainties based upon model simulations and an unprecedented compilation of observations.

  4. Climate Change and Food Security in Tanzania: Analysis of Current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Food systems in Tanzania are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability due to poor adaptive capacity of ... available GCMs and downscaling techniques ... water for hydroelectric power generation ... for farm-level decision making.

  5. Little auks buffer the impact of current Arctic climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grémillet, David; Welcker, Jorg; Karnovsky, Nina J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate models predict a multi-degree warming of the North Atlantic in the 21st century. A research priority is to understand the impact of such changes upon marine organisms. With 40-80 million individuals, planktivorous little auks (Alle alle) are an essential component of pelagic food webs...... in this region that are potentially highly susceptible to climatic effects. Using an integrative study of their behaviour, physiology and fitness at three study sites, we evaluated the impact of ocean warming on little auks across the Greenland Sea in 2005-2007. Contrary to our hypothesis, the birds responded...... to a wide range of sea surface temperatures via plasticity of their foraging behaviour, allowing them to maintain their fitness levels unchanged. Predicted effects of climate change are significantly attenuated by such plasticity, confounding attempts to forecast future impacts of climate change by envelope...

  6. Copenhagen Climate Change Conference: The Current Situation and the Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broughton, Emma

    2010-01-01

    The Copenhagen climate change conference has failed to meet expectations but has also led to a shift in the structure of multilateral negotiations on climate change. States have reclaimed negotiations, while the UN-centred structure has been weakened. Relations between developed and emerging countries have shifted, with the latter influence growing. There has also been an increased participation of civil-society actors (NGOs) in the debate. A new negotiation structure is emerging but it faces the difficult challenge of avoiding fragmentation

  7. Condition monitoring of machinery using motor current signature analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kryter, R.C.; Haynes, H.D.

    1989-01-01

    Motor current signature analysis (MCSA) is a powerful monitoring tool for motor-driven equipment that provides a nonintrusive means for detecting the presence of mechanical and electrical abnormalities in the motor and the driven equipment, including altered conditions in the process ''downstream'' of the motor-driven equipment. It was developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory as a means for determining the effects of aging and service wear systems, but it is applicable to a broad range of machinery. MCSA is based on the recognition that an electric motor (ac or dc) driving a mechanical load acts as an efficient and permanently available transducer by sensing mechanical load variations, large and small, long-term and rapid, and converting them into variations in the induced current generated in the motor windings. These motor current variations are carried by the electrical cables processes as desired. Motor current signatures, obtained in both time and over time to provide early indication of degradation. Successful applications of MCSA technology (patent applied for) include not only motor-operated valves but also pumps of various designs, blowers, and air conditioning systems. Examples are presented briefly, and speculation regarding the applicability of MCSA to a broader range of equipment monitoring and production line testing is also given. 1 ref., 13 figs

  8. Wall conditioning for ITER: Current experimental and modeling activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Douai, D., E-mail: david.douai@cea.fr [CEA, IRFM, Association Euratom-CEA, 13108 St. Paul lez Durance (France); Kogut, D. [CEA, IRFM, Association Euratom-CEA, 13108 St. Paul lez Durance (France); Wauters, T. [LPP-ERM/KMS, Association Belgian State, 1000 Brussels (Belgium); Brezinsek, S. [FZJ, Institut für Energie- und Klimaforschung Plasmaphysik, 52441 Jülich (Germany); Hagelaar, G.J.M. [Laboratoire Plasma et Conversion d’Energie, UMR5213, Toulouse (France); Hong, S.H. [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon 305-806 (Korea, Republic of); Lomas, P.J. [CCFE, Culham Science Centre, OX14 3DB Abingdon (United Kingdom); Lyssoivan, A. [LPP-ERM/KMS, Association Belgian State, 1000 Brussels (Belgium); Nunes, I. [Associação EURATOM-IST, Instituto de Plasmas e Fusão Nuclear, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Pitts, R.A. [ITER International Organization, F-13067 St. Paul lez Durance (France); Rohde, V. [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, 85748 Garching (Germany); Vries, P.C. de [ITER International Organization, F-13067 St. Paul lez Durance (France)

    2015-08-15

    Wall conditioning will be required in ITER to control fuel and impurity recycling, as well as tritium (T) inventory. Analysis of conditioning cycle on the JET, with its ITER-Like Wall is presented, evidencing reduced need for wall cleaning in ITER compared to JET–CFC. Using a novel 2D multi-fluid model, current density during Glow Discharge Conditioning (GDC) on the in-vessel plasma-facing components (PFC) of ITER is predicted to approach the simple expectation of total anode current divided by wall surface area. Baking of the divertor to 350 °C should desorb the majority of the co-deposited T. ITER foresees the use of low temperature plasma based techniques compatible with the permanent toroidal magnetic field, such as Ion (ICWC) or Electron Cyclotron Wall Conditioning (ECWC), for tritium removal between ITER plasma pulses. Extrapolation of JET ICWC results to ITER indicates removal comparable to estimated T-retention in nominal ITER D:T shots, whereas GDC may be unattractive for that purpose.

  9. The yield of eggplant depending on climate conditions and mulching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adamczewska-Sowińska Katarzyna

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The field production of eggplant in moderate climates is difficult as it depends heavily on thermal conditions. Eggplant is a species that is sensitive to low temperatures, and temperatures below 16°C constrain the growth of young plants. Other disadvantageous factors include: temperatures that are too high, water shortage and excessive soil humidity. The growth conditions for eggplant can be improved by using mulches. The purpose of the experiment was the assessment of eggplant cropping while using synthetic mulches of polyethylene foil and polypropylene textile. The research took five years (2008-2012 and on the basis of the obtained results it was possible to determine the influence of weather conditions on the yielding of this species. It was proven that eggplant cropping significantly depended on the air temperature and the amount of rainfall during the vegetation period. The highest yield was observed when the average air temperature was high and at the same time rainfall was evenly distributed throughout the vegetation season. It also turned out that the agro-technical procedure which significantly increased eggplant fruit cropping was mulching the soil with polyethylene black foil, or transparent foil, previously having applied a herbicide.

  10. Water deficit effects on maize yields modeled under current and greenhouse climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muchow, R.C.; Sinclair, T.R.

    1991-01-01

    The availability of water imposes one of the major limits on rainfed maize (Zea mays L.) productivity. This analysis was undertaken in an attempt to quantify the effects of limited water on maize growth and yield by extending a simple, mechanistic model in which temperature regulates crop development and intercepted solar radiation is used to calculate crop biomass accumulation. A soil water budget was incorporated into the model by accounting for inputs from rainfall and irrigation, and water use by soil evaporation and crop transpiration. The response functions of leaf area development and crop gas exchange to the soil water budget were developed from experimental studies. The model was used to interpret a range of field experiments using observed daily values of temperature, solar radiation, and rainfall or irrigation, where water deficits of varying durations developed at different stages of growth. The relative simplicity of the model and its robustness in simulating maize yields under a range of water-availability conditions allows the model to be readily used for studies of crop performance under alternate conditions. One such study, presented here, was a yield assessment for rainfed maize under possible greenhouse climates where temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration were increased. An increase in temperature combined with decreased rainfall lowered grain yield, although the increase in crop water use efficiency associated with elevated CO 2 concentration ameliorated the response to the greenhouse climate. Grain yields for the greenhouse climates as compared to current conditions increased, or decreased only slightly, except when the greenhouse climate was assumed to result in severly decreased rainfall

  11. Toroidal current asymmetry and boundary conditions in disruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, Henry

    2014-10-01

    It was discovered on JET that disruptions were accompanied by toroidal asymmetry of the plasma current. The toroidal current asymmetry ΔIϕ is proportional to the vertical current moment ΔMIZ , with positive sign for an upward vertical displacement event (VDE) and negative sign for a downward VDE. It was claimed that this could only be explained by Hiro current. It is shown that instead it is essentially a kinematic effect produced by the VDE displacement of a 3D magnetic perturbation. This is verified by M3D simulations. The simulation results do not require penetration of plasma into the boundary, as in the Hiro current model. It is shown that the normal velocity perpendicular to the magnetic field vanishes at the wall, in the small Larmor radius limit of electromagnetic sheath boundary conditions. Plasma is absorbed into the wall only via the parallel velocity, which is small, penetrates only an infinitesimal distance into the wall, and does not affect forces exerted by the plasma on the wall. Supported by USDOE and ITER.

  12. Projecting climate change, drought conditions and crop productivity in Turkey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sen, B.; Topcu, S.; Türkes, M.; Warner, J.F.

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on the evaluation of regional climate model simulation for Turkey for the 21st century. A regional climate model, ICTP-RegCM3, with 20 km horizontal resolution, is used to downscale the reference and future climate scenario (IPCC-A2) simulations. Characteristics of droughts as

  13. Current State of Climate Education in the United States: Are Graduate Students being Adequately Prepared to Address Climate Issues?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuster, E.; Fox, G.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is happening; scientists have already observed changes in sea level, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, and declining polar ice. The students of today are the leaders of tomorrow, and it is our duty to make sure they are well equipped and they understand the implications of climate change as part of their research and professional careers. Graduate students, in particular, are gaining valuable and necessary research, leadership, and critical thinking skills, but we need to ensure that they are receiving the appropriate climate education in their graduate training. Previous studies have primarily focused on capturing the K-12, college level, and general publics' knowledge of the climate system, concluding with recommendations on how to improve climate literacy in the classroom. While this is extremely important to study, very few studies have captured the current perception that graduate students hold regarding the amount of climate education being offered to them. This information is important to capture, as it can inform future curriculum development. We developed and distributed a nationwide survey (495 respondents) for graduate students to capture their perception on the level of climate system education being offered and their view on the importance of having climate education. We also investigated differences in the responses based on either geographic area or discipline. We compared how important graduate students felt it was to include climate education in their own discipline versus outside disciplines. The authors will discuss key findings from this ongoing research.

  14. Seasonal forecasts: communicating current climate variability in southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available seasonal time scale. Seasonal climate forecasts are defined as probabilistic predictions of how much rain is expected during the season and how warm or cool it will be, based primarily on the principle that the ocean (sea-surface temperatures) influences...

  15. Exergy characteristics of a ceiling-type residential air conditioning system operating under different climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ozbek, Arif [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Ceyhan Engineering Faculty, Cukurova University, Adana (Turkmenistan)

    2016-11-15

    In this study an energy and exergy analysis of a Ceiling-type residential air conditioning (CTRAC) system operating under different climatic conditions have been investigated for provinces within the different geographic regions of Turkey. Primarily, the hourly cooling load capacities of a sample building (Q{sub evap}) during the months of April, May, June, July, August and September were determined. The hourly total heat gain of the sample building was determined using the Hourly analysis program (HAP). The Coefficient of performance (COP), exergy efficiency (η) and exergy destruction (Ex{sub dest}) values for the whole system and for each component were obtained. The results showed that lower atmospheric temperature (T{sub atm}) influenced the performance of the system and each of its components.

  16. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    . The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate......More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level...... and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level...

  17. Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Zabel

    Full Text Available Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010, considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia. Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

  18. Icing conditions over Northern Eurasia in changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulygina, Olga N; Arzhanova, Natalia M; Groisman, Pavel Ya

    2015-01-01

    Icing conditions, particularly in combination with wind, affect greatly the operation of overhead communication and transmission lines causing serious failures, which result in tremendous economic damage. Icing formation is dangerous to agriculture, forestry, high seas fishery, for land and off coast man-made infrastructure. Quantitative icing characteristics such as weight, thickness, and duration are very important for the economy and human wellbeing when their maximum values exceed certain thresholds. Russian meteorological stations perform both visual and instrumental monitoring of icing deposits. Visual monitoring is ocular estimation of the type and intensity of icing and the date of ice appearance and disappearance. Instrumental monitoring is performed by ice accretion indicator that in addition to the type, intensity and duration of ice deposits reports also their weight and size. We used observations at 958 Russian stations for the period 1977–2013 to analyze changes in the ice formation frequency at individual meteorological stations and on the territory of quasi-homogeneous climatic regions in Russia. It was found that hoar frosts are observed in most parts of Russia, but icing only occurs in European Russia and the Far East. On the Arctic coast of Russia, this phenomenon can even be observed in summer months. Statistically significant decreasing trends in occurrence of icing and hoar frost events are found over most of Russia. An increasing trend in icing weights (IWs) was found in the Atlantic Arctic region in autumn. Statistically significant large negative trends in IWs were found in the Pacific Arctic in winter and spring. (letter)

  19. Spirometry Changes in Cold Climatic Conditions of Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udaya, Iyamanda B; Laxmi, Chettangada C; Abhishekh, Hulegar A; Raju, Trichur R; Sathyaprabha, Talakad N

    2015-01-01

    Pulmonary function is one of the important physiological measures that is known to be affected during the changes in the altitude. There is dearth of literature on changes in the pulmonary function variables in the cold climate conditions of Antarctica. We carried out spirometry before, during and after one year stay at Antarctica in members of the Indian expedition. Spirometry was carried out on 23 members of the XXVI Indian Scientific Expedition to Antarctica at baseline, after six months of expedition and at the end of one year, using standard guidelines. The tests were carried out indoor in temperature controlled laboratory. The pulmonary function test parameters did not vary across the period. Although, both forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in first second (FEV1) showed a decreasing trend but did not attain any statistical significance. However, peak expiratory flow (PEFR) rate was reduced significantly. Our study did not show consistently significant change in the pulmonary function parameters in the members of the Indian Antarctic expedition.

  20. Development of streamflow projections under changing climate conditions over Colorado River basin headwaters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. P. Miller

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The current drought over the Colorado River Basin has raised concerns that the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation may impose water shortages over the lower portion of the basin for the first time in history. The guidelines that determine levels of shortage are affected by relatively short-term (3 to 7 month forecasts determined by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC using the National Weather Service (NWS River Forecasting System (RFS hydrologic model. While these forecasts by the CBRFC are useful, water managers within the basin are interested in long-term projections of streamflow, particularly under changing climate conditions. In this study, a bias-corrected, statistically downscaled dataset of projected climate is used to force the NWS RFS utilized by the CBRFC to derive projections of streamflow over the Green, Gunnison, and San Juan River headwater basins located within the Colorado River Basin. This study evaluates the impact of changing climate to evapotranspiration rates and contributes to a better understanding of how hydrologic processes change under varying climate conditions. The impact to evapotranspiration rates is taken into consideration and incorporated into the development of streamflow projections over Colorado River headwater basins in this study. Additionally, the NWS RFS is modified to account for impacts to evapotranspiration due to changing temperature over the basin. Adjusting evapotranspiration demands resulted in a 6 % to 13 % average decrease in runoff over the Gunnison River Basin when compared to static evapotranspiration rates. Streamflow projections derived using projections of future climate and the NWS RFS provided by the CBRFC resulted in decreased runoff in 2 of the 3 basins considered. Over the Gunnison and San Juan River basins, a 10 % to 15 % average decrease in basin runoff is projected through the year 2099. However, over the Green River basin, a 5 % to 8

  1. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

    2015-01-01

    The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

  2. Climate change and its potential impact on mechanical, hydraulic and chemical conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naslund, J.O.

    2009-01-01

    The strategy for managing climate related conditions in SKB ' s safety assessments are based on the notion that it is not possible to predict climate in a 100 000-year time perspective. Instead, the approach in the SR-Can safety assessment was to identify and analyse both moderate climate evolutions as well as extremes within which the climate in Scandinavia may vary. To this end, knowledge on general climate variations in Scandinavia was used to identify characteristic climate domains which in turn were used to build a number of selected climate scenarios. The relevant climate domains for the Forsmark and Laxemar sites in the 100 000-year time perspective are; 1) a temperate climate domain, 2) a peri-glacial climate domain, and 3) a glacial climate domain. Also submerged/non-submerged conditions at the sites are of importance. In the SR-Can safety assessment several climate scenarios were investigated, including a reference evolution based on a repetition of reconstructed conditions for last glacial cycle (the Weichselian glaciation and the Holocene interglacial). For this reconstruction, extensive numerical simulations of ice sheets, isostatic changes, and permafrost were conducted. The resulting scenario showed site-specific timing and duration of the three climate domains and submerged periods for the full glacial cycle. This scenario is not a prediction of a future climate evolution. Instead it is one example of a future evolution that in a realistic and consistent way covers all relevant climate related changes that can be expected in a 100 000-year time perspective. Subsequently, this scenario formed the basis for the construction of additional climate scenarios that were used to analyse the effects of more extreme climate evolutions than during the last glacial cycle. Examples of complementary scenarios are a warmer and wetter climate scenario caused by an increased greenhouse effect, and colder scenarios with deeper permafrost or thicker ice sheets than in

  3. Who is producing current without derailing the climate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huet, Sylvestre

    2014-01-01

    The author examines whether it would be possible to massively produce electricity without disturbing the climate. He outlines the rather high level of CO 2 emissions by the energy sector in the World, the continuous increase of electricity consumption (mainly due to China). He comments the level of energy transition in western countries (level of low-carbon or de-carbonated energy), and notices that some good performance are due to the levels of nuclear energy and hydroelectric energy. He discusses the challenges raised by a perspective of phasing out nuclear for different countries

  4. Remote Sensing Studies Of The Current Martian Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, F. W.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Calcutt, S. B.; Moroz, V. I.

    A systematic and detailed experimental study of the Martian atmosphere remains to be carried out, despite many decades of intense interest in the nature of the Martian climate system, its interactions, variability and long-term stability. Such a study is planned by the 2005 Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, using limb-scanning infrared radiometric techniques similar to those used to study trace species in the terrestrial stratosphere. For Mars, the objectives are temperature, humidity, dust and condensate abundances with high vertical resolution and global coverage in the 0 to 80 km height range. The paper will discuss the experiment and its methodology and expectations for the results.

  5. Classical Ecological Restoration and its Current Challenges: Assisted Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilar A. Gómez-Ruiz

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecological restoration is a very active area in ecology and of great importance for ecosystems management. Despite of being a relatively young discipline, the classical concepts of restoration seem, at present, impractical considering the great challenges generated by modification and destruction of ecosystems. This is due to anthropic activities (deforestation, change of land use, pollution and global climate change. In the classic definition of restoration, the objective is to recover the degraded ecosystem to the same conditions of a historical reference state. However, nowadays the ecosystems return to a state prior to the disturbances seems unviable, because the thresholds of resilience have already been overcome. Additionally, climate change is causing environmental changes at an unprecedented rate. For this reason, ecological restoration needs to unite efforts of diverse actors to recover ecosystems that can be sustainable and functional in the future, where the species could be able to tolerate the environmental conditions that will exist in the long term. Assisted migration has been proposed as a conservation strategy; it is defined as the translocation of species to new locations outside their known range of distribution. In the current context of loss of diversity and ecosystems, this strategy could be fundamental for the formation of new communities that can later become novel ecosystems where species that are fundamental to the dynamics of ecosystems can persist and, at the same time, recover function, structure and resilience.

  6. Simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions: Revisiting an apparent deficiency of conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Keirnan J. A.; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu; Peterson, Tim J.

    2016-03-01

    Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. However, recent literature suggests that the current generation of conceptual rainfall runoff models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of runoff to a given change in rainfall, leading to poor performance when evaluated over multiyear droughts. This research revisited this conclusion, investigating whether the observed poor performance could be due to insufficient model calibration and evaluation techniques. We applied an approach based on Pareto optimality to explore trade-offs between model performance in different climatic conditions. Five conceptual rainfall runoff model structures were tested in 86 catchments in Australia, for a total of 430 Pareto analyses. The Pareto results were then compared with results from a commonly used model calibration and evaluation method, the Differential Split Sample Test. We found that the latter often missed potentially promising parameter sets within a given model structure, giving a false negative impression of the capabilities of the model. This suggests that models may be more capable under changing climatic conditions than previously thought. Of the 282[347] cases of apparent model failure under the split sample test using the lower [higher] of two model performance criteria trialed, 155[120] were false negatives. We discuss potential causes of remaining model failures, including the role of data errors. Although the Pareto approach proved useful, our aim was not to suggest an alternative calibration strategy, but to critically assess existing methods of model calibration and evaluation. We recommend caution when interpreting split sample results.

  7. Impact of NaCl Contamination and Climatic Conditions on the Reliability of Printed Circuit Board Assemblies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Verdingovas, Vadimas; Jellesen, Morten Stendahl; Ambat, Rajan

    2014-01-01

    The effect of climatic conditions and ionic contamination on the reliability of printed circuit board assembly has been investigated in terms of leakage current (LC) and electrochemical migration susceptibility. The change in LC as a function of relative humidity (RH) and temperature was measured...... and 15 $^{\\circ}\\hbox{C}$ –65 $^{\\circ}\\hbox{C}$. The variation of RH at the surface of the test specimens was imposed by 1) increasing the RH of the surrounding air and 2) reducing the temperature of the printed circuit boards using a cooling stage, while maintaining a constant climatic condition...

  8. New insights into thermal growing conditions of Portuguese grapevine varieties under changing climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, João A.; Costa, Ricardo; Fraga, Helder

    2018-03-01

    New decision support tools for Portuguese viticulture are urging under a climate change context. In the present study, heat and chilling accumulation conditions of a collection of 44 grapevine cultivars currently grown in Portugal are assessed at very high spatial resolution ( 1 km) and for 1981-2015. Two bioclimatic indices that incorporate non-linear plant-temperature relationships are selected for this purpose: growing degree hours—GDH (February-October) and chilling portions—CP (October-February). The current thermal growing conditions of each variety are examined and three clusters of grapevine cultivars are identified based on their GDH medians, thus assembling varieties with close heat accumulation requirements and providing more physiologically consistent information when compared to previous studies, as non-linear plant-temperature relationships are herein taken into account. These new clusters are also a complement to previous bioclimatic zoning. Ensemble mean projections under two anthropogenic-driven scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, 2041-2070), from four EURO-CORDEX simulations, reveal a widespread increase of GDH and decrease of CP, but with spatial heterogeneities. The spatial variability of these indices throughout Portugal is projected to decrease (strongest increases of GDH in the coolest regions of the northeast) and to increase (strongest decreases of CP in the warmest regions of the south and west), respectively. The typical heat accumulation conditions of each cluster are projected to gradually shift north-eastwards and to higher-elevation areas, whereas insufficient chilling may represent a new challenge in warmer future climates. An unprecedented level of detail for a large collection of grapevine varieties in Portugal is provided, thus promoting a better planning of climate change adaptation measures.

  9. Climate policy in developing countries and conditional transfers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruebbelke, Dirk T.G.

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role international transfers may play in international climate policy in consideration of the policy's ancillary benefits, such as air quality improvements. Ancillary benefits are especially important in many developing countries, while climate protection benefits or primary benefits play a minor role on the political agenda of these countries. In contrast, industrialized countries have a strong interest in combating climate change. These often neglected asymmetries between the developing and industrialized world affect the impacts of transfers. Interestingly, as we will show, the cost differentials between different environmental technologies among countries are the crucial prerequisite for the functioning of a transfer scheme and not the cost differentials in the execution of climate policy. This result has been overlooked by standard pure public good approaches

  10. Food Security Under Shifting Economic, Demographic, and Climatic Conditions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, R. L.

    2013-12-01

    Global demand for food, feed, and fuel will continue to rise in a more populous and affluent world. Meeting this demand in the future will become increasingly challenging with global climate change; when production shocks stemming from climate variability are added to the new mean climate state, food markets could become more volatile. This talk will focus on the interacting market effects of demand and supply for major food commodities, with an eye on climate-related supply trends and shocks. Lessons from historical patterns of climate variability (e.g., ENSO and its global teleconnections) will be used to infer potential food security outcomes in the event of abrupt changes in the mean climate state. Domestic food and trade policy responses to crop output and price volatility in key producing and consuming nations, such as export bans and import tariffs, will be discussed as a potentially major destabilizing force, underscoring the important influence of uncertainty in achieving--or failing to achieve--food security.

  11. Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B. J.; van Minnen, J. G.

    2012-04-01

    Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation) might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle). Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature. When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback). Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback). In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one. Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES) and Integrated Assessment (IA) modeling communities is strongly recommended.

  12. Climate change impact on shallow groundwater conditions in Hungary: Conclusions from a regional modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra

    2016-04-01

    A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time

  13. Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav (Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)); Brandefelt, Jenny (Dept. of Mechanics, Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)); Smith, Ben (Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)); Wohlfarth, Barbara (Dept. of Geology and Geochemistry, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-04-15

    This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform

  14. Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000-year time perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjellstroem, Erik; Strandberg, Gustav; Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Smith, Ben; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2009-04-01

    This report presents results from a project devoted to describing the climatic extremes within which the climate in Fennoscandia may vary over a 100,000 year time span. Based on forcing conditions which have yielded extreme conditions during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, as well as possible future conditions following continued anthropogenic emissions, projections of climate conditions have been made with climate models. Three different periods have been studied; i) a stadial within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) during the last glacial cycle, representing a cold period with a relatively small ice sheet covering parts of Fennoscandia, ii) the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with an extensive ice sheet covering large parts of northern Europe and iii) a possible future period in a climate warmer than today. The future case is characterised by high greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and a complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The climate modelling involved the use of a global climate model (GCM) for producing boundary conditions that were used by a regional climate model (RCM). The regional model produced detailed information on climate variables like near-surface air temperature and precipitation over Europe. These climate variables were subsequently used to force a vegetation model that produced a vegetation cover over Europe, consistent with the simulated regional climate. In a final step, the new vegetation cover from the vegetation model was used in the regional climate model to produce the final regional climate. For the studied periods, data on relevant climate parameters have been extracted from the regional model for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas on the Swedish east coast and the Olkiluoto region on the west coast of Finland. Due to computational constraints, the modelling efforts include only one forcing scenario per time period. As there is a large degree of uncertainty in the choice of an appropriate forcing scenario, we perform

  15. Species distributions and climate change:current patterns and future scenarios for biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian

    by shifts of their distributional ranges, which affects the spatial patterns of species richness and turnover. Global temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 - 4°C until the end of the century; hence climate change will most likely leave further imprints on species and ecosystems. This PhD thesis aims......-thirds of the areas harboring the richest amphibian faunas may be heavily impacted by at least one of the major threats by 2080. The stability of the climatic niche influences the need for a species to track climate change via dispersal, or its potential to adapt to novel climatic conditions. I therefore explore...... the phylogenetic signal in climatic niches of the world's amphibians, which serves as a surrogate quantification of niche stability. Results indicate an overall tendency of phylogenetic signal to be present in realised climatic niches, but signal strength varies across biogeographical regions and among amphibian...

  16. Climatic condition of Calabar as typified by some meteorological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study aims at analysing some meteorological data collected by the meteorological department of the Margaret Ekpo International Airport, Calabar between 1985 and 2003. The main objectives were to provide average figures and curves of Calabar climate, and to identify possible trends since 1985. Results show that ...

  17. The potential for cold climate conditions and permafrost in Forsmark in the next 60 000 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Zhang, Qiong; Hartikainen, Juha

    2013-05-01

    This report presents results of a study devoted to extend the current knowledge of the climate in Sweden in the next ∼60,000 years (60 ka). Specifically, the potential of cold climate and permafrost development in south-central Sweden, and in the Forsmark region, over this time horizon was investigated. The climate system is an interactive system consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryo sphere, the land surface and the biosphere, forced or influenced by various external forcing mechanisms, of which the most important is the Sun. Also the direct effect of human activities on the climate system is considered an external forcing. The latitudinal and seasonal distribution of incoming solar radiation (insolation) varies on millennial time scales due to variations in the Earth's orbit and axial tilt. These variations, together with variations in the atmospheric CO 2 concentration, are viewed as two main factors in determining the climate variation between interglacial (warmer) and glacial (colder) climates. Summer insolation at high northern latitudes is at a minimum 17 ka and 54 ka after present (AP). These periods were therefore identified as potential future periods of cold climate conditions in high northern latitudes in general and in south-central Sweden in particular. Due to human emissions of carbon to the atmosphere, the atmospheric CO 2 concentration is currently 392 ppmv (2011 AD), a substantial increase as compared to the range of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of 180-295 ppmv found in ice cores for the last 400 ka. The future atmospheric CO 2 concentration is determined by i) future human carbon emissions to the atmosphere, ii) possible emissions due to feedbacks in the climate system, and iii) by the global carbon cycle. To investigate the potential of cold climate conditions in south-central Sweden in the next 60 ka the future air temperature in Forsmark was estimated based on simulations with an Earth system model

  18. Measurement of heat stress conditions at cow level and comparison to climate conditions at stationary locations inside a dairy barn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüller, Laura K; Heuwieser, Wolfgang

    2016-08-01

    The objectives of this study were to examine heat stress conditions at cow level and to investigate the relationship to the climate conditions at 5 different stationary locations inside a dairy barn. In addition, we compared the climate conditions at cow level between primiparous and multiparous cows for a period of 1 week after regrouping. The temperature-humidity index (THI) differed significantly between all stationary loggers. The lowest THI was measured at the window logger in the experimental stall and the highest THI was measured at the central logger in the experimental stall. The THI at the mobile cow loggers was 2·33 THI points higher than at the stationary loggers. Furthermore, the mean daily THI was higher at the mobile cow loggers than at the stationary loggers on all experimental days. The THI in the experimental pen was 0·44 THI points lower when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. The THI measured at the mobile cow loggers was 1·63 THI points higher when the experimental cow group was located inside the milking parlour. However, there was no significant difference for all climate variables between primiparous and multiparous cows. These results indicate, there is a wide range of climate conditions inside a dairy barn and especially areas with a great distance to a fresh air supply have an increased risk for the occurrence of heat stress conditions. Furthermore, the heat stress conditions are even higher at cow level and cows not only influence their climatic environment, but also generate microclimates within different locations inside the barn. Therefore climate conditions should be obtained at cow level to evaluate the heat stress conditions that dairy cows are actually exposed to.

  19. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service overview for operational monitoring of current crop conditions and production forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crutchfield, J.

    2016-12-01

    The presentation will discuss the current status of the International Production Assessment Division of the USDA ForeignAgricultural Service for operational monitoring and forecasting of current crop conditions, and anticipated productionchanges to produce monthly, multi-source consensus reports on global crop conditions including the use of Earthobservations (EO) from satellite and in situ sources.United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) International Production AssessmentDivision (IPAD) deals exclusively with global crop production forecasting and agricultural analysis in support of the USDAWorld Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) lockup process and contributions to the World Agricultural Supply DemandEstimates (WASE) report. Analysts are responsible for discrete regions or countries and conduct in-depth long-termresearch into national agricultural statistics, farming systems, climatic, environmental, and economic factors affectingcrop production. IPAD analysts become highly valued cross-commodity specialists over time, and are routinely soughtout for specialized analyses to support governmental studies. IPAD is responsible for grain, oilseed, and cotton analysison a global basis. IPAD is unique in the tools it uses to analyze crop conditions around the world, including customweather analysis software and databases, satellite imagery and value-added image interpretation products. It alsoincorporates all traditional agricultural intelligence resources into its forecasting program, to make the fullest use ofavailable information in its operational commodity forecasts and analysis. International travel and training play animportant role in learning about foreign agricultural production systems and in developing analyst knowledge andcapabilities.

  20. Regional and historical factors supplement current climate in shaping global forest canopy height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jian; Nielsen, Scott; Mao, Lingfeng

    2016-01-01

    on Light Detection and Ranging-derived maximum forest canopy height (Hmax) to test hypotheses relating Hmax to current climate (water availability, ambient energy and water–energy dynamics), regional evolutionary and biogeographic history, historical climate change, and human disturbance. We derived Hmax...... biogeographic regions, supporting the role of regional evolutionary and biogeographic history in structuring broad-scale patterns in canopy height. Furthermore, there were divergent relationships between climate and Hmax between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, consistent with historical evolutionary...... contingencies modulating these relationships. Historical climate change was also related to Hmax, albeit not as strongly, with shorter canopy heights where late-Quaternary climate has been less stable. In contrast, human disturbance was only weakly related to Hmax at the scale (55 km) examined here. Synthesis...

  1. Hot house global climate change and the human condition

    CERN Document Server

    Strom, Robert G

    2007-01-01

    Global warming is addressed by almost all sciences including many aspects of geosciences, atmospheric, the biological sciences, and even astronomy. It has recently become the concern of other diverse disciplines such as economics, agriculture, demographics and population statistics, medicine, engineering, and political science. This book addresses these complex interactions, integrates them, and derives meaningful conclusions and possible solutions. The text provides an easy-to-read explanation of past and present global climate change, causes and possible solutions to the problem, including t

  2. Changing Energy Requirements in the Mediterranean Under Changing Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Demosthenous

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of climate change on energy requirements in the Mediterranean. Energy requirements, especially for space heating and cooling, are closely linked to several weather variables, mainly air temperature. The analysis is based on daily temperature outputs from several regional climate models run at a resolution of 25 km × 25 km in the framework of EU project ENSEMBLES using the A1B emissions scenario. The impacts of changes in temperature on energy requirements are investigated using the concept of degree days, defined as the difference of mean air temperature from a base temperature. Base temperature should be chosen to coincide with the minimum energy consumption. In this way, changes in heating and cooling requirements between the reference and the future period are calculated and areas about to undergo large changes identified. These changes are calculated between a 30-year reference period 1961–1990 and a near future period 2021–2050 taking the ensemble mean of all regional climate models. The near-term future has been chosen instead of the frequently used end-of-the-century period to assist policy makers in their planning. In general, a decrease in energy requirements is projected under future milder winters and an increase under hotter summers.

  3. The Current Working Conditions in Ugandan Apparel Assembly Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Tebyetekerwa

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The present rapid shift of industrialization from developed to developing countries requires developing countries to understand issues related to work organization, management, and working conditions. There are many factors slackening production, of which working conditions is part. A complete inquiry into the workers' working conditions can enable managements to reduce risks in the workplaces and improve productivity. Understanding and awareness of the benefits of workplace research and a probe into the working conditions in the Ugandan apparel assembly plants are urgently required. Methods: A total of 103 (70 women and 33 men workers from five different plants were interviewed. Together with the top management of various plants, questionnaires about the workers' opinions of their physical working conditions were prepared. Data was collected using two methods: (1 questionnaire; and (2 observation of the workers during their work. Results: The results indicated that poor plant working conditions were mainly contributed by the workers' social factors and the management policies. Conclusion: The government, together with the management, should work to improve the working conditions in the apparel assembly plants, as it greatly affects both. Keywords: apparel assembly plants, ergonomics, musculoskeletal disorders, Uganda, working conditions

  4. Dynamical Downscaling over Siberia: Is there an added value in representing recent climate conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klehmet, K.; Rockel, B.

    2012-04-01

    The analysis of long-term changes and variability of climate variables for the large areal extent of Siberia - covering arctic, subarctic and temperate northern latitudes - is hampered by the sparseness of in-situ observations. To counteract this deficiency we aimed to provide a reconstruction of regional climate for the period 1948-2010 getting homogenous, consistent fields of various terrestrial and atmospheric parameters for Siberia. In order to obtain in addition a higher temporal and spatial resolution than global datasets can provide, we performed the reconstruction using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (climate mode of the limited area model COSMO developed by the German weather service). However, the question arises whether the dynamically downscaled data of reanalysis can improve the representation of recent climate conditions. As global forcing for the initialization and the regional boundaries we use NCEP-1 Reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction since it has the longest temporal data coverage among the reanalysis products. Additionally, spectral nudging is applied to prevent the regional model from deviating from the prescribed large-scale circulation within the whole simulation domain. The area of interest covers a region in Siberia, spanning from the Laptev Sea and Kara Sea to Northern Mongolia and from the West Siberian Lowland to the border of Sea of Okhotsk. The current horizontal resolution is of about 50 km which is planned to be increased to 25 km. To answer the question, we investigate spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation of the model output in comparison to global reanalysis data (NCEP-1, ERA40, ERA-Interim). As reference Russian station data from the "Global Summary of the Day" data set, provided by NCDC, is used. Temperature is analyzed with respect to its climatologically spatial patterns across the model domain and its variability of extremes based on climate indices derived

  5. The potential for cold climate conditions and permafrost in Forsmark in the next 60 000 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandefelt, Jenny; Naeslund, Jens-Ove [Svensk Kaernbraenslehantering, Stockholm (Sweden); Zhang, Qiong [Dept. of Meteorology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden); Hartikainen, Juha [School of Engineering, Aalto Univ., Aalto (Finland)

    2013-05-15

    This report presents results of a study devoted to extend the current knowledge of the climate in Sweden in the next {approx}60,000 years (60 ka). Specifically, the potential of cold climate and permafrost development in south-central Sweden, and in the Forsmark region, over this time horizon was investigated. The climate system is an interactive system consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryo sphere, the land surface and the biosphere, forced or influenced by various external forcing mechanisms, of which the most important is the Sun. Also the direct effect of human activities on the climate system is considered an external forcing. The latitudinal and seasonal distribution of incoming solar radiation (insolation) varies on millennial time scales due to variations in the Earth's orbit and axial tilt. These variations, together with variations in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, are viewed as two main factors in determining the climate variation between interglacial (warmer) and glacial (colder) climates. Summer insolation at high northern latitudes is at a minimum 17 ka and 54 ka after present (AP). These periods were therefore identified as potential future periods of cold climate conditions in high northern latitudes in general and in south-central Sweden in particular. Due to human emissions of carbon to the atmosphere, the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is currently 392 ppmv (2011 AD), a substantial increase as compared to the range of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations of 180-295 ppmv found in ice cores for the last 400 ka. The future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is determined by i) future human carbon emissions to the atmosphere, ii) possible emissions due to feedbacks in the climate system, and iii) by the global carbon cycle. To investigate the potential of cold climate conditions in south-central Sweden in the next 60 ka the future air temperature in Forsmark was estimated based on

  6. The Current Working Conditions in Ugandan Apparel Assembly Plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebyetekerwa, Mike; Akankwasa, Nicholus Tayari; Marriam, Ifra

    2017-12-01

    The present rapid shift of industrialization from developed to developing countries requires developing countries to understand issues related to work organization, management, and working conditions. There are many factors slackening production, of which working conditions is part. A complete inquiry into the workers' working conditions can enable managements to reduce risks in the workplaces and improve productivity. Understanding and awareness of the benefits of workplace research and a probe into the working conditions in the Ugandan apparel assembly plants are urgently required. A total of 103 (70 women and 33 men) workers from five different plants were interviewed. Together with the top management of various plants, questionnaires about the workers' opinions of their physical working conditions were prepared. Data was collected using two methods: (1) questionnaire; and (2) observation of the workers during their work. The results indicated that poor plant working conditions were mainly contributed by the workers' social factors and the management policies. The government, together with the management, should work to improve the working conditions in the apparel assembly plants, as it greatly affects both.

  7. Sustainability Challenges from Climate Change and Air Conditioning Use in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Lundgren

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change increases heat loads in urban areas causing health and productivity risks for millions of people. Inhabitants in tropical and subtropical urban areas are at especial risk due to high population density, already high temperatures, and temperature increases due to climate change. Air conditioning is growing rapidly, especially in South and South-East Asia due to income growth and the need to protect from high heat exposures. Studies have linked increased total hourly electricity use to outdoor temperatures and humidity; modeled future predictions when facing additional heat due to climate change, related air conditioning with increased street level heat and estimated future air conditioning use in major urban areas. However, global and localized studies linking climate variables with air conditioning alone are lacking. More research and detailed data is needed looking at the effects of increasing air conditioning use, electricity consumption, climate change and interactions with the urban heat island effect. Climate change mitigation, for example using renewable energy sources, particularly photovoltaic electricity generation, to power air conditioning, and other sustainable methods to reduce heat exposure are needed to make future urban areas more climate resilient.

  8. Changes in the world rivers' discharge projected from an updated high resolution dataset of current and future climate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santini, Monia; di Paola, Arianna

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, an updated global map of the current climate zoning and of its projections, according to the Köppen-Geiger classification, is first provided. The map at high horizontal resolution (0.5° × 0.5°), representative of the current (i.e. 1961-2005) conditions, is based on the Climate Research Unit dataset holding gridded series of historical observed temperature and precipitation, while projected conditions rely on the simulated series, for the same variables, by the General Circulation Model CMCC-CM. Modeled variables were corrected for their bias and then projections of climate zoning were generated for the medium term (2006-2050) and long term (2056-2100) future periods, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Results show that Equatorial and Arid climates will spread at the expenses of Snow and Polar climates, with the Warm Temperate experiencing more moderate increase. Maps of climate zones are valuable for a wide range of studies on climate change and its impacts, especially those regarding the water cycle that is strongly regulated by the combined conditions of precipitation and temperature. As example of large scale hydrological applications, in this work we tested and implemented a spatial statistical procedure, the geographically weighted regression among climate zones' surface and mean annual discharge (MAD) at hydrographic basin level, to quantify likely changes in MAD for the main world rivers monitored through the Global Runoff Data Center database. The selected river basins are representative of more than half of both global superficial freshwater resources and world's land area. Globally, a decrease in MAD is projected both in the medium term and long term, while spatial differences highlight how some areas require efforts to avoid consequences of amplified water scarcity, while other areas call for strategies to take the opportunity from the expected increase in water availability. Also the fluctuations of trends between the

  9. Climate change and indigenous peoples: A synthesis of current impacts and experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton-Smith, Kathryn; Lynn, Kathy; Chief, Karletta; Cozetto, Karen; Donatuto, Jamie; Hiza, Margaret; Kruger, Linda; Maldonado, Julie; Viles, Carson; Whyte, Kyle P.

    2016-01-01

    A growing body of literature examines the vulnerability, risk, resilience, and adaptation of indigenous peoples to climate change. This synthesis of literature brings together research pertaining to the impacts of climate change on sovereignty, culture, health, and economies that are currently being experienced by Alaska Native and American Indian tribes and other indigenous communities in the United States. The knowledge and science of how climate change impacts are affecting indigenous peoples contributes to the development of policies, plans, and programs for adapting to climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This report defines and describes the key frameworks that inform indigenous understandings of climate change impacts and pathways for adaptation and mitigation, namely, tribal sovereignty and self-determination, culture and cultural identity, and indigenous community health indicators. It also provides a comprehensive synthesis of climate knowledge, science, and strategies that indigenous communities are exploring, as well as an understanding of the gaps in research on these issues. This literature synthesis is intended to make a contribution to future efforts such as the 4th National Climate Assessment, while serving as a resource for future research, tribal and agency climate initiatives, and policy development.

  10. Modeling the prospects for climatic change: current state-of-the-art and implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellogg, W. M.

    1980-04-04

    It has been increasingly suggested that the world's climate is going to change in the next several decades, primarily as a result of anthropogenic perturbations to the global carbon cycle brought about by fossil fuel burning and large-scale deforestation. In order to cope with these future climatic changes, it is necessary that tools be developed to predict how complex systems respond to a given change of conditions. This report summarizes the status of our ability to model the planetary system that determines the climate. (ACR)

  11. Transformational leadership climate : Performance linkages, mechanisms, and boundary conditions at the organizational level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Menges, J.; Walter, F.; Vogel, B.; Bruch, H.

    2011-01-01

    Transformational leadership (TFL) climate describes the degree to which leaders throughout an organization engage in TFL behaviors. In this study, we investigate performance linkages, mechanisms, and boundary conditions of TFL climate at the organizational level of analysis. In a sample of 158

  12. Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rulin; Li, Qing; He, Shisong; Liu, Yuan; Wang, Mingtian; Jiang, Gan

    2018-01-01

    Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China. Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa. The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

  13. Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rulin Wang

    Full Text Available Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China.Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation.The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100 was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%, mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%, precipitation in May (11.5% and minimum temperature in October (10.8%, had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa.The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

  14. Tourism and climate conditions in San Juan, Puerto Rico, 2000-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo A. Méndez-Lázaro

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The general behavior of the tourism sector in Puerto Rico, with its marked seasonality, hints at a close relationship between tourism activities and climate conditions. Even if weather condition is only one of many variables considered by travelling tourists, climate conditions weigh heavily in the majority of the decisions. The effect of climate variability on the environment could be manifested in warmer temperature, heat waves, and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events, such as severe storms and hurricanes, floods, and sea level rise. These conditions affect different sectors of society, among them public health and the economy. Therefore, our research has two main objectives: to establish a tourism climate index (TCI for Puerto Rico and to analyze if occupancy rates in hotels correspond to local weather conditions. Even though there are many other variables that could have positive or negative effects on tourism activities, results showed a significant association between occupancy rate in Puerto Rico and climate indexes. According to both TCI and the mean historical climate for tourism indexes, the most favorable months for tourism in Puerto Rico were February and March (winter, whereas the worst season was the end of August and the beginning of September (summer-fall. Although winter represents dry conditions and lower temperatures in San Juan, it also represents the highest occupancy rate during the years examined. In summer and fall, data showed high occupancy rates, yet climate conditions were not suitable; these months also correspond to the hurricane season. During this season, high relative occupancy rates responded to internal and local tourism patterns. It can therefore be assumed that until the climate-tourism relationship is well characterized, there is little hope of fully understanding the potential economic effects, detrimental or beneficial, of global climate change, not only on tourism in Puerto Rico, but on

  15. Conditions for Emergence, Stability and Change in New Organizations in the Field of Citizens Climate Action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Figueroa, Maria Josefina

    Climate change represents a crisis of tangible measure and the emergence of a field of action within which acting today needs to be motivated for what can contribute to benefit climate and transform society into a low carbon tomorrow. With the breadth and scope of citizen action on climate change....... This contribution is concerned with the latter. It proposes that using field analysis it is possible to understand conditions of emergence, stability and change in citizen engagement in climate action. The present contribution offers only a preliminary exploration of possibilities for how using field theory can...

  16. Integrated analysis of present and future responses of precipitation over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2016-03-01

    The assessment of future precipitation variations prevailing in an area is essential for the research regarding climate and climate change. The current paper focuses on 3 selected areas in Greece that present different climatic characteristics due to their location and aims to assess and compare the future variation of annual and seasonal precipitation. Future precipitation data from the ENSEMBLES anthropogenic climate-change (ACC) global simulations and the Climate version of the Local Model (CLM) were obtained and analyzed. The climate simulations were performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under the A1B and B1 scenarios. Mann-Kendall test was applied to investigate possible trends. Spatial distribution of precipitation was performed using a combination of dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques and Kriging method within ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for both scenarios, reference periods and study areas, precipitation is expected to be critically decreased. Additionally, Mann-Kendall test application showed a strong downward trend for every study area. Furthermore, the decrease in precipitation for the Ardas River basin characterized by the continental climate will be tempered, while in the Sperchios River basin it will be smoother due to the influence of some minor climatic variations in the basins' springs in the highlands where milder conditions occur. Precipitation decrease in the Geropotamos River basin which is characterized by Mediterranean climate will be more vigorous. B1 scenario appeared more optimistic for the Ardas and Sperchios River basins, while in the Geropotamos River basin, both applied scenarios brought similar results, in terms of future precipitation response.

  17. Potential Alternative Lower Global Warming Refrigerants for Air Conditioning in Hot Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL; Shrestha, Som S [ORNL; Shen, Bo [ORNL

    2017-01-01

    The earth continues to see record increase in temperatures and extreme weather conditions that is largely driven by anthropogenic emissions of warming gases such as carbon dioxide and other more potent greenhouse gases such as refrigerants. The cooperation of 188 countries in the Conference of the Parties in Paris 2015 (COP21) resulted in an agreement aimed to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2 C. A global phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) can prevent 0.5 C of warming by 2100. However, most of the countries in hot climates are considered as developing countries and as such are still using R-22 (a Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC)) as the baseline refrigerant and are currently undergoing a phase-out of R-22 which is controlled by current Montreal Protocol to R-410A and other HFC based refrigerants. These HFCs have significantly high Global Warming Potential (GWP) and might not perform as well as R-22 at high ambient temperature conditions. In this paper we present recent results on evaluating the performance of alternative lower GWP refrigerants for R-22 and R-410A for small residential mini-split air conditioners and large commercial packaged units. Results showed that several of the alternatives would provide adequate replacement for R-22 with minor system modification. For the R-410A system, results showed that some of the alternatives were almost drop-in ready with benefit in efficiency and/or capacity. One of the most promising alternatives for R-22 mini-split unit is propane (R-290) as it offers higher efficiency; however it requires compressor and some other minor system modification to maintain capacity and minimize flammability risk. Between the R-410A alternatives, R-32 appears to have a competitive advantage; however at the cost of higher compressor discharge temperature. With respect to the hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) blends, there existed a tradeoff in performance and system design

  18. Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord

    2016-03-01

    One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries. © 2015 APJPH.

  19. Uganda: Current Conditions and the Crisis in North Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-29

    2004/2005. The main industries include the processing of coffee, cotton, tea, sugar, tobacco, edible oils , dairy products, and grain milling as well as...weather conditions. The industrial sector has also expanded, with real output growth approaching 10% a year. Industry constituted 20.4% of GDP in...increasingly critical of governance issues and a rise in defense spending. The late June 2009 discovery of an oil reserve in the fields of western

  20. Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

    2015-01-01

    Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before

  1. Selecting Populations for Non-Analogous Climate Conditions Using Universal Response Functions: The Case of Douglas-Fir in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J.; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio

    2015-01-01

    Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before

  2. Starch degradation in rumen fluid as influenced by genotype, climatic conditions and maturity stage of maize, grown under controlled conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ali, M.; Cone, J.W.; Hendriks, W.H.; Struik, P.C.

    2014-01-01

    Starch is the major component of maize kernels, contributing significantly to the feeding value of forage maize when fed to ruminants. The effects of genotype, climatic conditions and maturity stage on starch content in the kernels and on in vitro starch degradability in rumen fluid were

  3. Wake Survey of a Marine Current Turbine Under Steady Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lust, Ethan; Luznik, Luksa; Flack, Karen

    2016-11-01

    A submersible particle image velocimetry (PIV) system was used to study the wake of a horizontal axis marine current turbine. The turbine was tested in a large tow tank facility at the United States Naval Academy. The turbine is a 1/25th scale model of the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Reference Model 1 (RM1) tidal turbine. It is a two-bladed turbine measuring 0.8 m in diameter and featuring a NACA 63-618 airfoil cross section. Separate wind tunnel testing has shown the foil section used on the turbine to be Reynolds number independent with respect to lift at the experimental parameters of tow carriage speed (Utow = 1 . 68 m/s) and tip speed ratio (TSR = 7). The wake survey was conducted over an area extending 0.25D forward of the turbine tip path to 2.0D aft, and to a depth of 1.0D beneath the turbine output shaft in the streamwise plane. Each field of view was approximately 30 cm by 30 cm, and each overlapped the adjacent fields of view by 5 cm. The entire flow field was then reconstructed into a single field of investigation. Results include streamwise and vertical ensemble average velocity fields averaged over approximately 1,000 realizations, as well as higher-order statistics. Turbine tip vortex centers were identified and plotted showing increasing aperiodicity with wake age. keywords: horizontal axis marine current turbine, particle image velocimetry, towing tank, wake survey

  4. Lake-level increasing under the climate cryoaridization conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amosov, Mikhail; Strelkov, Ivan

    2017-04-01

    A lake genesis and lake-level increasing during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are the paramount issues in paleoclimatology. Investigating these problems reveals the regularities of lake development and figures out an arid territory conditions at the LGM stage. Pluvial theory is the most prevalent conception of lake formation during the LGM. This theory is based on a fact that the water bodies emerged and their level increased due to torrential rainfalls. In this study, it is paid attention to an alternative assumption of lake genesis at the LGM stage, which is called climate cryoaridization. In accordance with this hypothesis, the endorheic water basins had their level enlarged because of a simultaneous climate aridity and temperature decrease. In this research, a lake-level increasing in endorheic regions of Central Asia and South American Altiplano of the Andes is described. The lake investigation is related to its conditions during the LGM. The study also includes a lake catalogue clearly presenting the basin conditions at the LGM stage and nowadays. The data compilation partly consists of information from an earlier work of Mikhail Amosov, Lake-levels, Vegetation And Climate In Central Asia During The Last Glacial Maximum (EGU2014-3015). According to the investigation, a lake catalogue on 27 lakes showed that most of the water bodies had higher level. This feature could be mentioned for the biggest lakes of the Aral Sea, Lake Balkhash, Issyk-Kul etc. and for the small ones located in the mountains, such as Pamir, Tian-Shan and Tibet. Yet some lakes that are situated in Central Asian periphery (Lake Qinghai and lakes in Inner Mongolia) used to be lower than nowadays. Also, the lake-level increasing of Altiplano turned to be a significant feature during the LGM in accordance with the data of 5 lakes, such as Titicaca, Coipasa-Uyuni, Lejia, Miscanti and Santa-Maria. Most of the current endorheic basins at the LGM stage were filled with water due to abundant

  5. Assessment of Environmental Flows under Human Intervention and Climate Change Conditions in a Mediterranean Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, M. T.; Alp, E.; Aras, M.; Özaltın, A. M.; Sarıcan, Y.; Afsar, M.; Bulut, B.; Ersoy, E. N.; Karasu, İ. G.; Onen, A.

    2017-12-01

    Allocation of the river flow for ecosystems is very critical for sustainable management of ecosystems containing aquatic habitats in need of more water than other environments. Availability and allocation of water over such locations becomes more stressed as a result of the influence of human interventions (e.g., increased water use for irrigation) and the expected change in climate. This study investigates the current and future (until 2100) low-flow requirements over 10 subcatchments in a Mediterranean Watershed, in Turkey, using Tennant and hydrological low-flow methods. The future river flows are estimated using HBV model forced by climate projections obtained by HADGEM2, MPI-ESM-MR, and CNRM-CM5.1 models coupled with RegCM4.3 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Critical flows (i.e., Q10, Q25, Q50) are calculated using the best fit to commonly used distributions for the river flow data, while the decision between the selection of Q10, Q25, Q50 critical levels are made depending on the level of human interference made over the catchment. Total three low-flow requirement estimations are obtained over each subcatchment using the Tennant (two estimates for the low and high flow seasons for environmentally good conditions) and the hydrological low-flow methods. The highest estimate among these three methods is selected as the low-flow requirement of the subcatchment. The river flows over these 10 subcatchments range between 197hm3 and 1534hm3 while the drainage areas changing between 936 and 4505 km2. The final low-flow estimation (i.e., the highest among the three estimate) for the current conditions range between 94 hm3 and 715 hm3. The low-flow projection values between 2075 and 2099 are on average 39% lower than the 2016 values, while the steepest decline is expected between 2050 and 2074. The low flow and high flow season Tennant estimates dropped 22-25% while the hydrological method low-flow estimates dropped 32% from 2016 to 2075-2099 average, where

  6. Topology of plasma equilibria and the current closure condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kocic, S.; Mahajan, S.M.; Hazeltine, R.D.

    2005-01-01

    A virtually complete description of the topology of stationary incompressible Euler flows and the magnetic field satisfying the magnetostatic equation is given by a theorem due to Arnol'd. We apply this theorem to describe the topology of stationary states of plasmas with significant fluid flow, obeying the Hall magnetohydrodynamics model equations. In the context of the integrability (nonchaotic topology) of the magnetic and velocity fields, we discuss the validity of conditions analogous to that of Greene and Johnson, which, in the case of magnetostatic equations, states that the line integral ∫dl/B is the same for each closed magnetic field line on a given magnetic surface. We also show how this property follows from the existence of a continuous volume-preserving symmetry of the magnetic field

  7. Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2017-10-01

    The determination of heat requirements in the first developing phases of plants has been expressed as Growing Degree Days (GDD). The current study focuses on three selected study areas in Greece that are characterised by different climatic conditions due to their location and aims to assess the future variation and spatial distribution of Growing Degree Days (GDD) and how these can affect the main cultivations in the study areas. Future temperature data were obtained and analysed by the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis was performed for the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 with the A1B and B1 scenarios. Spatial distribution was performed using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling technique through ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for all the future periods and scenarios, the GDD are expected to increase. Furthermore, the increase in the Sperchios River basin will be the highest, followed by the Ardas and the Geropotamos River basins. Moreover, the cultivation period will be shifted from April-October to April-September which will have social, economical and environmental benefits. Additionally, the spatial distribution indicated that in the upcoming years the existing cultivations can find favourable conditions and can be expanded in mountainous areas as well. On the other hand, due to the rough topography that exists in the study areas, the wide expansion of the existing cultivations into higher altitudes is unaffordable. Nevertheless, new more profitable cultivations can be introduced which can find propitious conditions in terms of GDD.

  8. Evidence of current impact of climate change on life : A walk from genes to the biosphere

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Penuelas, Josep; Sardans, Jordi; Estiarte, Marc; Ogaya, Roma; Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Barbeta, Adria; Rivas-Ubach, Albert; Llusia, Joan; Garbulsky, Martin; Filella, Iolanda; Jump, Alistair S.

    We review the evidence of how organisms and populations are currently responding to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, genotypic evolution, changes in distribution and, in some cases, local extinction. Organisms alter their gene expression and metabolism to increase the concentrations of

  9. Experimental Determination of Bed Conditions in Concentrated Pyroclastic Density Currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winner, A.; Ferrier, K.; Dufek, J.

    2016-12-01

    Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are ground-hugging mixtures of hot gas and rock that can reach temperatures > 800 oC and speeds of 200 m/s. These flows are capable of eroding and entraining the underlying bed material into the flow, which can strongly influence flow momentum, runout distance, and hazards associated with PDCs. However, the mechanism of erosion remains poorly constrained, with proposed mechanisms including under-pressure following the head of the fluidized current, force chain enhanced stresses at the bed, and discrete particle impacts and friction. The interactions between PDCs and the bed have been difficult to observe in the field, as their infrequent occurrence, opacity, and hostile environment make real-time measurement difficult. This study is aimed at obtaining a better understanding of the interactions between PDCs and the bed through a quantitative analysis of bed forces. Our experimental apparatus consists of a rotating cylindrical flume of radius 22 cm, within which gas-rich granular material flows along the interior of the cylinder as it rotates. By using a rotating cylinder, we are able to simulate long-duration flows, allowing us to observe impact forces at the bed over timescales comparable to the flow duration of natural PDCs. To measure the distribution and evolution of forces imparted by the flow on the bed, we constructed a cylindrical insert with a non-erodible bed in which we embedded force sensor arrays parallel and perpendicular to the direction of flow. To measure the forces felt by the particles in the flow, we added "smart particles" 25 to 50 mm in diameter to the flow. Each smart particle contains a three-axis accelerometer and a micro SD card enclosed in a spherical plastic casing, and possesses a density similar to that of the pumice in the experimental flow. Each smart particle also contains a three-axis magnetometer which permits its location to be tracked by means of a unique applied magnetic field. Ultimately

  10. Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes

    KAUST Repository

    Wilson, S. K.

    2010-02-26

    Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef fishes were invited to submit five questions that, if addressed, would improve our understanding of climate change effects on coral reef fishes. Thirty-three scientists provided 155 questions, and 32 scientists scored these questions in terms of: (i) identifying a knowledge gap, (ii) achievability, (iii) applicability to a broad spectrum of species and reef habitats, and (iv) priority. Forty-two per cent of the questions related to habitat associations and community dynamics of fish, reflecting the established effects and immediate concern relating to climate-induced coral loss and habitat degradation. However, there were also questions on fish demographics, physiology, behaviour and management, all of which could be potentially affected by climate change. Irrespective of their individual expertise and background, scientists scored questions from different topics similarly, suggesting limited bias and recognition of a need for greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Presented here are the 53 highest-scoring unique questions. These questions should act as a guide for future research, providing a basis for better assessment and management of climate change impacts on coral reefs and associated fish communities.

  11. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  12. On the role of model depth and hydraulic properties for groundwater flow modelling during glacial climate conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidstrand, Patrik; Rhen, Ingvar

    2011-03-01

    twice; first with hydraulic conditions that mimic temperate climate conditions, and second with hydraulic conditions that maximises the potential impact at depth during glacial climate conditions. The key assumptions made regarding the hydraulic conditions during the glacial phase are: 1) a thick ice sheet with a steep profile at the front, 2) a hydraulic pressure beneath the ice sheet that equals 92% of the ice thickness, 3) a low advance rate of the ice sheet margin, and 4) no permafrost beneath the ice sheet or in front of the ice sheet margin. The results vary between the studied cases (model variants). For a model set-up that mimics the current hydrogeological conditions at the Laxemar site, the results are as follows: - The grid cell Darcy flux magnitudes during temperate climate conditions are 10 -1 1 m/s at -0.5 km and 10 -1 3 m/s at -3.0 km. During the ice front passage, the relative increase in Darcy flux is approximately two orders of magnitude at all four monitoring points. The duration of this increase in Darcy flux is approximately 100 years. - The grid cell salinities during temperate climate conditions are approximately 0% by weight at -0.5 km and approximately 7% by weight at -2.5 km. During the ice front passage, the grid cell salinity at -0.5 km first increases to approximately 2% by weight before it returns back to approximately 0% by weight. The duration of this pulse change in salinity is approximately 100 years. At -2.5 km elevation, the grid cell salinity decreases approximately to 6% by weight during the ice front passage. During the long period of complete ice coverage that follows the passage of ice front, the hydraulic gradients at depth are very small; hence it takes several thousand of years before the grid cell salinity at -2.5 km elevation is fully recovered

  13. On the role of model depth and hydraulic properties for groundwater flow modelling during glacial climate conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB (Sweden))

    2011-03-15

    twice; first with hydraulic conditions that mimic temperate climate conditions, and second with hydraulic conditions that maximises the potential impact at depth during glacial climate conditions. The key assumptions made regarding the hydraulic conditions during the glacial phase are: 1) a thick ice sheet with a steep profile at the front, 2) a hydraulic pressure beneath the ice sheet that equals 92% of the ice thickness, 3) a low advance rate of the ice sheet margin, and 4) no permafrost beneath the ice sheet or in front of the ice sheet margin. The results vary between the studied cases (model variants). For a model set-up that mimics the current hydrogeological conditions at the Laxemar site, the results are as follows: - The grid cell Darcy flux magnitudes during temperate climate conditions are 10-11 m/s at -0.5 km and 10-13 m/s at -3.0 km. During the ice front passage, the relative increase in Darcy flux is approximately two orders of magnitude at all four monitoring points. The duration of this increase in Darcy flux is approximately 100 years. - The grid cell salinities during temperate climate conditions are approximately 0% by weight at -0.5 km and approximately 7% by weight at -2.5 km. During the ice front passage, the grid cell salinity at -0.5 km first increases to approximately 2% by weight before it returns back to approximately 0% by weight. The duration of this pulse change in salinity is approximately 100 years. At -2.5 km elevation, the grid cell salinity decreases approximately to 6% by weight during the ice front passage. During the long period of complete ice coverage that follows the passage of ice front, the hydraulic gradients at depth are very small; hence it takes several thousand of years before the grid cell salinity at -2.5 km elevation is fully recovered

  14. Evaluation of thermal perception in schoolyards under Mediterranean climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoniadis, D.; Katsoulas, N.; Papanastasiou, D.; Christidou, V.; Kittas, C.

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this paper was to study qualitatively and quantitatively the thermal perception and corresponding heat stress conditions that prevail in two schoolyards in a coastal city in central Greece. For this purpose, meteorological parameters (i.e., wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation) were recorded at 70 and 55 measuring points in the schoolyards, from 14:00 to 15:30 local time, during May and June of 2011. The measuring points were distributed so as to get measurements at points (a) directly exposed to the sun, (b) under the shadow of trees and building structures, and (c) near building structures. Cluster analysis was applied to group observations and revealed places that are microclimatically homogeneous. Thermal perception and heat stress conditions were assessed by means of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET, °C), and the results are presented in relevant charts. The impact of material's albedo, radiation's reflection by structures and obstacles, and different tree species on thermal perception and heat stress conditions was also assessed. The analysis showed that trees triggered a reduction of incident solar radiation that ranged between 79 and 94 % depending on tree's species, crown dimension, tree height, and leaf area. PET values were mainly affected by solar radiation and wind speed. Trees caused a reduction of up to 37 % in PET values, while a 1-m s-1 increase in wind speed triggered a reduction of 3.7-5.0 °C in PET value. The effective shading area in the two schoolyards was small, being 27.5 and 11 %. The results of this study could be exploited by urban planning managers when designing or improving the outdoor environment of a school complex.

  15. Impact of future climatic conditions on the potential for soil organic matter priming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reinsch, Sabine; Ambus, Per; Thornton, Barry

    2013-01-01

    Terrestrial carbon (C) storage and turnover are of major interest under changing climatic conditions. We present a laboratory microcosm study investigating the effects of anticipated climatic conditions on the soil microbial community and related changes in soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition....... Soil samples were taken from a heath-land after six years of exposure to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO2) in combination with summer drought (D) and increased temperature (T). Soil C-dynamics were investigated in soils from: (i) ambient, (ii) eCO2, and (iii) plots exposed to the combination of factors...... simulating future climatic conditions (TDeCO2) that simulate conditions predicted for Denmark in 2075. 13C enriched glucose (3 atom% excess) was added to soil microcosms, soil CO2 efflux was measured over a period of two weeks and separated into glucose- and SOM-derived C. Microbial biomass was measured...

  16. Popular culture and the "new human condition": Catastrophe narratives and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulfin, Ailise

    2017-09-01

    Striking popular culture images of burnt landscapes, tidal waves and ice-bound cities have the potential to dramatically and emotively convey the dangers of climate change. Given that a significant number of people derive a substantial proportion of their information on the threat of climate change, or the ;new human condition;, from popular culture works such as catastrophe movies, it is important that an investigation into the nature of the representations produced be embedded in the attempt to address the issue. What climate change-related messages may be encoded in popular films, television and novels, how are they being received, and what effects may they have? This article adopts the cultural studies perspective that popular culture gives us an important means by which to access the ;structures of feeling; that characterise a society at a particular historic juncture: the views held and emotional states experienced by significant amounts of people as evident in disparate forms of cultural production. It further adopts the related viewpoint that popular culture has an effect upon the society in which it is consumed, as well as reflecting that society's desires and concerns - although the nature of the effect may be difficult to quantify. From this position, the article puts forward a theory on the role of ecological catastrophe narratives in current popular culture, before going on to review existing critical work on ecologically-charged popular films and novels which attempts to assess their effects on their audiences. It also suggests areas for future research, such as the prevalent but little studied theme of natural and environmental disaster in late-Victorian science fiction writing. This latter area is of interest because it reveals the emergence of an ecological awareness or structure of feeling as early as the late-nineteenth century, and allows the relationship of this development to environmental policy making to be investigated because of the

  17. Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2017-01-01

    The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems - dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms - are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous

  18. Climatic conditions governing extensive Azolla bloom during the Middle Eocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekker, Rolande; Speelman, Eveline N.; Barke, Judith; Konijnendijk, Tiuri; Sinninge Damste, Jaap S.; Reichart, Gert-Jan

    2010-05-01

    Enormous amounts of intact mega- and microspores from the free floating aquatic fern Azolla were found in sediments recovered during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program expedition 302, indicating that Azolla grew and reproduced in situ in the Eocene Arctic Ocean. In general, the Early/Middle Eocene is characterized by enhanced greenhouse conditions with elevated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Arctic (~10°C), while tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were only a little warmer than today (with a mean annual temperature (MAT) of 32-34 °C) (Pearson et al., 2007). The consequently reduced temperature gradient between the equator and the poles and the presence of freshwater at the North Pole as indicated by the presence of the freshwater fern Azolla (Brinkhuis et al., 2006) provide important boundary conditions for understanding the hydrological cycle and latent heat transport during this interval. Here we reconstruct variations in SST and mean annual air temperature using the TEX86 and MBT temperature proxies for the Azolla interval. Sediments from around the Arctic Basin have been analyzed, including samples from Alaska, the Mackenzie Basin, Greenland (IODP core 913b), and Denmark. Furthermore, a high resolution sea surface temperature record for the Azolla interval has been constructed from sediment samples from the Lomonosov Ridge, showing a cyclic signal. Model experiments have shown that the here confirmed low equator-to-pole temperature gradient modulated the hydrological cycle. Since the growth of Azolla is restricted to low salinity conditions, changes in the hydrological cycle are proposed to coincide with the cyclic occurrence of Azolla throughout the interval. To confirm the overlapping presence of high quantities of Azolla and increased precipitation, changes in the hydrogen cycle are reconstructed by creating a high resolution hydrogen isotope record throughout the interval. By performing compound specific analyses (δD) on terrestrial derived

  19. Effects of city expansion on heat stress under climate change conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Argüeso

    Full Text Available We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990-2009 and future (2040-2059 simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort.

  20. Morro do Cruzeiro UFOP Campus evaluation of indoors climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela A. Faria

    Full Text Available Abstract The comfort conditions of a given environment can directly influence the performance of the activities performed therein. When considering the school space in relationship with the user, the environment is even more important, since it may reflect fully on the learning process. This article evaluates the thermal comfort perceptions of classroom users of the Federal University of Ouro Preto, specifically the School of Mining, the Institute of Physical and Biological Sciences and the Building Block of Classrooms. The research is conducted through questionnaires and measurements of environmental variables in loco simultaneously in the three areas throughout the months of June, July and September 2011. The results were statistically analyzed using the calculation of the standard deviation from the mean operative temperature and humidity to give comfort zone. Approximately 75% of the users were satisfied with the thermal environment.

  1. Attributing Climate Conditions for Stable Malaria Transmission to Human Activity in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldrake, L.; Mitchell, D.; Allen, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Temperature and precipitation limit areas of stable malaria transmission, but the effects of climate change on the disease remain controversial. Previously, studies have not separated the influence of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability, despite being an essential step in the attribution of climate change impacts. Ensembles of 2900 simulations of regional climate in sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2013, one representing realistic conditions and the other how climate might have been in the absence of human influence, were used to force a P.falciparium climate suitability model developed by the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project. Strongest signals were detected in areas of unstable transmission, indicating their heightened sensitivity to climatic factors. Evidently, impacts of human-induced climate change were unevenly distributed: the probability of conditions being suitable for stable malaria transmission were substantially reduced (increased) in the Sahel (Greater Horn of Africa (GHOA), particularly in the Ethiopian and Kenyan highlands). The length of the transmission season was correspondingly shortened in the Sahel and extended in the GHOA, by 1 to 2 months, including in Kericho (Kenya), where the role of climate change in driving recent malaria occurrence is hotly contested. Human-induced warming was primarily responsible for positive anomalies in the GHOA, while reduced rainfall caused negative anomalies in the Sahel. The latter was associated with anthropogenic impacts on the West African Monsoon, but uncertainty in the RCM's ability to reproduce precipitation trends in the region weakens confidence in the result. That said, outputs correspond well with broad-scale changes in observed endemicity, implying a potentially important contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the malaria burden during the past century. Results support the health-framing of climate risk and help indicate hotspots of climate vulnerability, providing

  2. Sustainability Challenges from Climate Change and Air Conditioning Use in Urban Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Lundgren, Karin; Kjellström, Tord

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change increases heat loads in urban areas causing health and productivity risks for millions of people. Inhabitants in tropical and subtropical urban areas are at especial risk due to high population density, already high temperatures, and temperature increases due to climate change. Air conditioning is growing rapidly, especially in South and South-East Asia due to income growth and the need to protect from high heat exposures. Studies have linked increased total hourly elect...

  3. Conditions for a market uptake of climate services for adaptation in France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romain Cavelier

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This perspective paper reports the results of a collaborative survey of French research institutes concerned with environmental issues, which examined the potential for a market uptake of climate services for adaptation in France. The study is based on a review of existing reports on the market of climate services, and on interviews of 68 climate service providers and users in public and private organizations. Although the study does not allow to provide quantified estimations regarding the present and future size of the market, its results offer new perspectives with implications extending far beyond the sole case of France: first, while the market is still in its infancy, significant opportunities exist in sectors such as flooding risks, and, to a slightly lesser extent, hydro and nuclear energy and viticulture. In addition, the study identifies critical conditions for the uptake in climate services: (1 a coordinated delivery of data, information, expertise and training by public research institutes concerned with climate change and its impacts; (2 the inclusion of adaptation in the regulation and in public and private tenders. Finally, (3 uncertainties in climate projections appear as a major barrier to the uptake of climate services. However, ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction as planned by the COP-21 Paris Agreement contribute to reducing this uncertainties by allowing users to select a subset of climate change projections, avoiding those for which adaptation is most problematic.

  4. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.R.; Skinner, Q.D.

    1992-06-01

    The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 x 3.0 x 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models

  5. Effects of future climate conditions on streamflow dynamics in coastal southern California watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, D.; Zhao, Y.; Raoufi, R.; Beighley, E.; Melack, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Santa Barbara Coastal - Long Term Ecological Research Project is focused on investigating the relative importance of land and ocean processes in structuring giant kelp forest ecosystems. Understanding how current and future climate conditions influence terrestrial export of water is a central theme for the project. In this study, the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model is forced with past measurement-based (1950 to 2005) and future model-based (2006 to 2100) precipitation and temperature to estimate daily streamflow dynamics. The study region is roughly 800 km2 with 179 watersheds ranging from 0.1 to 123 km2. The model-based forcings are downscaled to a spatial resolution of 6 km by 6 km. The Priestley and Taylor method is used to estimate potential evapotranspiration based on the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations limited climate data approximations and land surface conditions (albedo, leaf area index, land cover) measured from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua satellites. The HRR model is calibrated for the period 1984 to 2013 using USGS streamflow. Median changes in downscaled precipitation projections from 10 models and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) combined with significance testing, suggest that the distribution of precipitation throughout the rainy season will change: decrease at the beginning of the rainy season (Oct-Dec), increase during peak season (Jan-Mar) and decrease at the end (Apr-Jun). Annually, results suggest a slight increase in precipitation. The decrease of rainfall in spring and fall and increase in winter will lead to a shorter (10-15 days, 8-14%), more intense wet season. Both the magnitude and frequency of large storms (>36 mm/day) are likely to increase. Following the precipitation patterns, streamflow in spring and fall is likely to decrease while winter streamflow and annual peak flows are likely to increase due to increased winter precipitation and

  6. Climate related diseases. Current regional variability and projections to the year 2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Błażejczyk Krzysztof

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The health of individuals and societies depends on different factors including atmospheric conditions which influence humans in direct and indirect ways. The paper presents regional variability of some climate related diseases (CRD in Poland: salmonellosis intoxications, Lyme boreliosis, skin cancers (morbidity and mortality, influenza, overcooling deaths, as well as respiratory and circulatory mortality. The research consisted of two stages: 1 statistical modelling basing on past data and 2 projections of CRD for three SRES scenarios of climate change (A1B, A2, B1 to the year 2100. Several simple and multiply regression models were found for the relationships between climate variables and CRD. The models were applied to project future levels of CRD. At the end of 21st century we must expect increase in: circulatory mortality, Lyme boreliosis infections and skin cancer morbidity and mortality. There is also projected decrease in: respiratory mortality, overcooling deaths and influenza infections.

  7. Balanced Current Control Strategy for Current Source Rectifier Stage of Indirect Matrix Converter under Unbalanced Grid Voltage Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeongsu Bak

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a balanced current control strategy for the current source rectifier (CSR stage of an indirect matrix converter (IMC under unbalanced grid voltage conditions. If the three-phase grid connected to the voltage source inverter (VSI of the IMC has unbalanced voltage conditions, it affects the currents of the CSR stage and VSI stage, and the currents are distorted. Above all, the distorted currents of the CSR stage cause instability in the overall system, which can affect the life span of the system. Therefore, in this paper, a control strategy for balanced currents in the CSR stage is proposed. To achieve balanced currents in the CSR stage, the VSI stage should receive DC power without ripple components from the CSR stage. This is implemented by controlling the currents in the VSI stage. Therefore, the proposed control strategy decouples the positive and negative phase-sequence components existing in the unbalanced voltages and currents of the VSI stage. Using the proposed control strategy under unbalanced grid voltage conditions, the stability and life span of the overall system can be improved. The effectiveness of the proposed control strategy is verified by simulation and experimental results.

  8. Potential effects of climate change on a marine invasion: The importance of current context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle M. CÔTÉ, Stephanie J. GREEN

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally. There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem. Here, we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator, the Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles. We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour: pelagic larval duration, because of its link to dispersal potential, and prey consumption rate, because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey. Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory, we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures, with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance. Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large, predicted reductions are, on average, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfish in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local retention of larvae, local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change. Increasing temperature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey, leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass. However, the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases (and hence overall prey consumption rates on invaded reefs. Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that, at least for the lionfish invasion, the threat is clear and present, rather than future [Current Zoology 58 (1: 1–8, 2012].

  9. Prediction of thermal sensation in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

    2002-01-01

    The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

  10. Extension of the PMV model to non-air-conditioned building in warm climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

    2002-01-01

    The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

  11. Does safety climate moderate the influence of staffing adequacy and work conditions on nurse injuries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark, Barbara A; Hughes, Linda C; Belyea, Michael; Chang, Yunkyung; Hofmann, David; Jones, Cheryl B; Bacon, Cynthia T

    2007-01-01

    Hospital nurses have one of the highest work-related injury rates in the United States. Yet, approaches to improving employee safety have generally focused on attempts to modify individual behavior through enforced compliance with safety rules and mandatory participation in safety training. We examined a theoretical model that investigated the impact on nurse injuries (back injuries and needlesticks) of critical structural variables (staffing adequacy, work engagement, and work conditions) and further tested whether safety climate moderated these effects. A longitudinal, non-experimental, organizational study, conducted in 281 medical-surgical units in 143 general acute care hospitals in the United States. Work engagement and work conditions were positively related to safety climate, but not directly to nurse back injuries or needlesticks. Safety climate moderated the relationship between work engagement and needlesticks, while safety climate moderated the effect of work conditions on both needlesticks and back injuries, although in unexpected ways. DISCUSSION AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our findings suggest that positive work engagement and work conditions contribute to enhanced safety climate and can reduce nurse injuries.

  12. Testing Projected Climate Change Conditions on the Endoconidiophora polonica / Norway spruce Pathosystem Shows Fungal Strain Specific Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riikka Linnakoski

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes, exemplified by increased temperatures and CO2 concentration, pose a global threat to forest health. Of particular concern are pests and pathogens, with a warming climate altering their distributions and evolutionary capacity, while impairing the ability of some plants to respond to infections. Progress in understanding and mitigating such effects is currently hindered by a lack of empirical research. Norway spruce (Picea abies is one of the most economically important tree species in northern Europe, and is considered highly vulnerable to changes in climate. It is commonly infected by the fungus Endoconidiophora polonica, and we hypothesized that damage caused to trees will increase under future climate change predictions. To test this hypothesis an in vivo greenhouse experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of a changed growing environment on E. polonica infected Norway spruce seedlings, comparing ambient conditions to predicted temperatures and CO2 levels in Finland for the years 2030 and 2100. In total, 450 seedlings were randomized amongst the three treatments, with 25 seedlings from each allocated to inoculation with one of five different fungal strains or mock-inoculation. Seedlings were monitored throughout the thermal growing season for mortality, and lesion length and depth indices were measured at the experiment conclusion. Disease severity (mortality and lesions was consistently greater in fungal-inoculated than mock-inoculated seedlings. However, substantial differences were observed among fungal strains in response to climate scenarios. For example, although overall seedling mortality was highest under the most distant (and severe climate change expectations, of the two fungal strains with the highest mortality counts (referred to as F4 and F5, one produced greater mortality under the 2030 and 2100 scenarios than ambient conditions, whereas climate scenario had no effect on the other. This study contributes

  13. Climate policies in China, India and Brazil: current issues and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellevrat, Elie

    2012-07-01

    Emerging countries will have to tackle different social and economic development challenges in the future, which translate nationally into the concepts of 'harmonious society' in China and 'inclusive growth' in India, and into the Brazilian slogan 'a wealthy country is a country without poverty'. Per capita (current US$), Brazil is more than two times richer than China, which in turn is three times richer than India. This graduation explains the variety of priorities of those countries: reducing inequalities and achieving the development processes in China and Brazil, alleviating poverty and enhancing energy access in India. Furthermore, these countries are increasingly linked internationally, along with the globalization process. Energy security is a key issue for China and India, while Brazil aims at playing a key role on future international energy markets. Emerging economies are progressively laying the foundations for low-carbon development strategies that will depend on their national contexts and priorities. Investments in building and transport infrastructures are increasingly important in all those countries, creating the conditions today for tomorrow's low-carbon economic development. China recently made important resolutions in the framework of its 12. Five-Year Plan, decoupling economic growth from GHG emissions. India has developed eight 'National Missions' on climate change and is now exploring future low-carbon strategies. And Brazil is affirming its position internationally, pushing for innovative 'green growth' concepts, within the framework of the Rio+20 Conference. All countries have already implemented several energy and climate policies and plan to develop them further, through innovative policy institutions and instruments. They are switching progressively from command- and-control to economic instruments. In particular, market-based mechanisms are increasingly used in all countries: mandatory pilot Emission Trading Systems (ETS) in China

  14. Small river plumes off the northeastern coast of the Black Sea under average climatic and flooding discharge conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Osadchiev

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the impact of discharges of small rivers on the delivery and fate of fluvial water and suspended matter at the northeastern part of the Black Sea under different local precipitation conditions. Several dozens of mountainous rivers flow into the sea at the study region, and most of them, except for several of the largest, have little annual runoff and affect adjacent coastal waters to a limited extent under average climatic conditions. However, the discharges of these small rivers are characterized by a quick response to precipitation events and can significantly increase during and shortly after heavy rains, which are frequent in the considered area. The delivery and fate of fluvial water and terrigenous sediments at the study region, under average climatic and rain-induced flooding conditions, were explored and compared using in situ data, satellite imagery, and numerical modeling. It was shown that the point-source spread of continental discharge dominated by several large rivers under average climatic conditions can change to the line-source discharge from numerous small rivers situated along the coast in response to heavy rains. The intense line-source runoff of water and suspended sediments forms a geostrophic alongshore current of turbid and freshened water, which induces the intense transport of suspended and dissolved constituents discharged with river waters in a northwestern direction. This process significantly influences water quality and causes active sediment load at large segments of the narrow shelf at the northeastern part of the Black Sea compared to average climatic discharge conditions.

  15. Small river plumes off the northeastern coast of the Black Sea under average climatic and flooding discharge conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osadchiev, Alexander; Korshenko, Evgeniya

    2017-06-01

    This study focuses on the impact of discharges of small rivers on the delivery and fate of fluvial water and suspended matter at the northeastern part of the Black Sea under different local precipitation conditions. Several dozens of mountainous rivers flow into the sea at the study region, and most of them, except for several of the largest, have little annual runoff and affect adjacent coastal waters to a limited extent under average climatic conditions. However, the discharges of these small rivers are characterized by a quick response to precipitation events and can significantly increase during and shortly after heavy rains, which are frequent in the considered area. The delivery and fate of fluvial water and terrigenous sediments at the study region, under average climatic and rain-induced flooding conditions, were explored and compared using in situ data, satellite imagery, and numerical modeling. It was shown that the point-source spread of continental discharge dominated by several large rivers under average climatic conditions can change to the line-source discharge from numerous small rivers situated along the coast in response to heavy rains. The intense line-source runoff of water and suspended sediments forms a geostrophic alongshore current of turbid and freshened water, which induces the intense transport of suspended and dissolved constituents discharged with river waters in a northwestern direction. This process significantly influences water quality and causes active sediment load at large segments of the narrow shelf at the northeastern part of the Black Sea compared to average climatic discharge conditions.

  16. Small river plumes near the north-eastern coast of the Black Sea under climatic mean and flooding discharge conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osadchiev, Alexander; Korshenko, Evgeniya

    2017-04-01

    The study is focused on the impact of discharge from small rivers on propagation and final location of fluvial waters and suspended matter at the north-eastern part of the Black Sea under different local precipitation conditions. Several dozens of mountainous rivers inflow into the sea at the studied region and most of them, except the several largest of them, have small annual runoff and limitedly affect adjacent coastal waters under climatic mean conditions. However, discharges of these small rivers are characterized by quick response to precipitation events and can dramatically increase during and shortly after heavy rains, which are frequent in the area under consideration. Propagation and final location of fluvial waters and terrigenous sediments at the studied region under climatic mean and rain-induced flooding conditions were explored and compared using in situ data, satellite imagery and numerical modelling. It was shown that the point-source spread of continental discharge dominated by several large rivers during climatic mean conditions can change to the line-source discharge from numerous small rivers situated along the coast in response to heavy rains. Intense line-source runoff of water and suspended sediments form a geostrophic alongshore current of turbid and freshened water, which induces intense transport of suspended and dissolved constituents discharged with river waters in a north-western direction. This process significantly influences water quality and causes active sediment load at large segments of narrow shelf at the north-eastern part of the Black Sea as compared to climatic mean discharge conditions.

  17. Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

    2018-06-01

    The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

  18. Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

    2013-04-01

    Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been

  19. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  20. The influence of current and future climate on the spatial distribution of coccidioidomycosis in the southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorris, M. E.; Hoffman, F. M.; Zender, C. S.; Treseder, K. K.; Randerson, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    Coccidioidomycosis, otherwise known as valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern U.S. The magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of valley fever incidence is shaped by variations in regional climate. As such, climate change may cause new communities to become at risk for contracting this disease. Humans contract valley fever by inhaling fungal spores of the genus Coccidioides. Coccidioides grow in the soil as a mycelium, and when stressed, autolyze into spores 2-5 µm in length. Spores can become airborne from any natural or anthropogenic soil disturbance, which can be exacerbated by dry soil conditions. Understanding the relationship between climate and valley fever incidence is critical for future disease risk management. We explored several multivariate techniques to create a predictive model of county-level valley fever incidence throughout the southwestern U.S., including Arizona, California, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah. We incorporated surface air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, surface dust concentrations, leaf area index, and the amount of agricultural land, all of which influence valley fever incidence. A log-linear regression model that incorporated surface air temperature, soil moisture, surface dust concentration, and the amount of agricultural land explained 34% of the county-level variance in annual average valley fever incidence. We used this model to predict valley fever incidence for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 using simulation output from the Community Earth System Model. In our analysis, we describe how regional hotspots of valley fever incidence may shift with sustained warming and drying in the southwestern U.S. Our predictive model of valley fever incidence may help mitigate future health impacts of valley fever by informing health officials and policy makers of the climate conditions suitable for disease outbreak.

  1. Projections of meteorological and snow conditions in the Pyrenees using adjusted EURO-CORDEX climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

    2017-04-01

    Current and future availability of seasonal snow is a recurring topic in mountain regions such as the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenues in France, Spain and Andorra. Associated changes in river discharges, their consequences on water storage management, the future vulnerability of Pyrenean ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as debris flows and avalanches are also under consideration. However, to generate projections of snow conditions, a traditional dynamical downscaling approach featuring spatial resolutions typically between 10 and 50 km is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. Indeed, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Moreover, simulations from general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) suffer from biases compared to local observations, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted before they can be used to drive specific models such as land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. Meteorological observations used for the quantile mapping consist of the regional scale reanalysis SAFRAN, which operates at the scale of homogeneous areas on the order of 1000 km2 within which meteorological conditions vary only with elevation. SAFRAN combines large-scale NWP reanalysis (ERA40, ARPEGE) with in-situ meteorological observations. The SAFRAN reanalysis is available

  2. The Contribution of Soils to North America's Current and Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Thornton, P. E.; Lajtha, K.; Bailey, V. L.; Shrestha, G.; Jastrow, J. D.; Torn, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation will cover key aspects of the terrestrial soil carbon cycle in North America and the US for the upcoming State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCRII). SOCCRII seeks to summarize how natural processes and human interactions affect the global carbon cycle, how socio-economic trends affect greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and how ecosystems are influenced by and respond to greenhouse gas emissions, management decisions, and concomitant climate effects. Here, we will summarize the contemporary understanding of carbon stocks, fluxes, and drivers in the soil ecosystem compartment. We will highlight recent advances in modeling the magnitude of soil carbon stocks and fluxes, as well as the importance of remaining uncertainties in predicting soil carbon cycling and its relationship with climate. Attention will be given to the role of uncertainties in predicting future fluxes from soils, and how those uncertainties vary by region and ecosystem. We will also address how climate feedbacks and management decisions can enhance or minimize future climatic effects based on current understanding and observations, and will highlight select research needs to improve our understanding of the balance of carbon in soils in North America.

  3. An Overview of Hydropower Reservoirs in Brazil: Current Situation, Future Perspectives and Impacts of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viviane de Souza Dias

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change, related to the greenhouse gases emission, impacts hydroelectric power generation mainly due to the increase in air temperature and changes in the precipitation patterns. As a consequence, it affects basin evapotranspiration process, runoff, sediment transport as well as evaporation of reservoirs. This study analysed the current and future Brazilian context of hydroelectric reservoirs and investigated the potential impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and possible mitigation adjustments, giving relevant examples from around the world. Moreover, it is key to consider other factors that influence the availability of water resources such as: (a upstream development of reservoirs, mainly the development of agricultural systems, which can contribute to increased water demand; (b changes in land use, which can have an impact on soil degradation and sediment transport. Hydroelectric dams are a possible alternative to mitigate the impacts of climate change considering that those impacts could generate the need of adaptive actions. The assessment of climate change impacts’ projections anticipates possible future scenarios and can assist in strategic planning together with the definition of adaptive operational policies.

  4. Assessment of monitored energy use and thermal comfort conditions in mosques in hot-humid climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Homoud, Mohammad S.; Abdou, Adel A.; Budaiwi, Ismail M. [Architectural Engineering Department, KFUPM, Dhahran 31261 (Saudi Arabia)

    2009-06-15

    In harsh climatic regions, buildings require air-conditioning in order to provide an acceptable level of thermal comfort. In many situations buildings are over cooled or the HVAC system is kept running for a much longer time than needed. In some other situations thermal comfort is not achieved due to improper operation practices coupled with poor maintenance and even lack it, and consequently inefficient air-conditioning systems. Mosques represent one type of building that is characterized by their unique intermittent operating schedule determined by prayer times, which vary continuously according to the local solar time. This paper presents the results of a study designed to monitor energy use and thermal comfort conditions of a number of mosques in a hot-humid climate so that both energy efficiency and the quality of thermal comfort conditions especially during occupancy periods in such intermittently operated buildings can be assessed accurately. (author)

  5. Adapting to Mother Nature's changing climatic conditions: Flexible stocking for enhancing profitability of Wyoming ranchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranching is a dynamic business in which profitability is impacted by changing weather and climatic conditions. A ranch-level model using a representative ranch in southeastern Wyoming was used to compare economic outcomes from growing season precipitation scenarios of: 1) historical precipitation da...

  6. Long-term sustainability of the landscape in new climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubeckova, D.; Krocova, S.

    2017-10-01

    The long-term sustainability of the landscape and its natural environment must be the decisive task of the public administration and, in the wider concept, of every citizen. In new climatic conditions, this need has intensified. The following article suggests in a basic scope whether the above-mentioned task can be accomplished, and what means of solution should be used.

  7. Simple model for daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boesten, J.J.T.I.; Stroosnijder, L.

    1986-01-01

    A simple parametric model is presented to estimate daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate. In this model, cumulative actual evaporation during a drying cycle is directly proportional to the square root of cumulative potential evaporation. The model

  8. Working with invalid boundary conditions: lessons from the field for communicating about climate change with public audiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunther, A.

    2015-12-01

    There is an ongoing need to communicate with public audiences about climate science, current and projected impacts, the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the requirement to prepare for changes that are likely unavoidable. It is essential that scientists are engaged and active in this effort. Scientists can be more effective communicators about climate change to non-scientific audiences if we recognize that some of the normal "boundary conditions" under which we operate do not need to apply. From how we are trained to how we think about our audience, there are some specific skills and practices that allow us to be more effective communicators. The author will review concepts for making our communication more effective based upon his experience from over 60 presentations about climate change to public audiences. These include expressing how your knowledge makes you feel, anticipating (and accepting) questions unconstrained by physics, respecting beliefs and values while separating them from evidence, and using the history of climate science to provide a compelling narrative. Proper attention to presentation structure (particularly an opening statement), speaking techniques for audience engagement, and effective use of presentation software are also important.

  9. Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Schlosser, Courtney [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Melillo, Jerry [Marine Biological Lab. (MBL), Woods Hole, MA (United States); Walter, Katey [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2015-09-15

    Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  10. Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia

    2015-01-01

    Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.

  11. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  12. Energy Saving Potential of PCMs in Buildings under Future Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdo Abdullah Ahmed Gassar

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy consumption reduction under changing climate conditions is a major challenge in buildings design, where excessive energy consumption creates an economic and environmental burden. Improving thermal performance of the buildings through support applying phase change material (PCM is a promising strategy for reducing building energy consumption under future climate change. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the energy saving potentials in buildings under future climate conditions in the humid and snowy regions in the hot continental and humid subtropical climates of the east Asia (Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong when various PCMs with different phase change temperatures are applied to a lightweight building envelope. Methodology in this work is implemented in two phases: firstly, investigation of energy saving potentials in buildings through inclusion of three types of PCMs with different phase temperatures into the building envelop separately and use weather file in the present (2017; and, secondly, evaluation of the effect of future climate change on the performance of PCMs by analyzing energy saving potentials of PCMs with 2020, 2050 and 2080 weather data. The results show that the inclusion of PCM into the building envelope is a promising strategy to increase the energy performance in buildings during both heating and cooling seasons in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong under future climate conditions. The energy savings achieved by using PCMs in those regions are electricity savings of 4.48–8.21%, 3.81–9.69%, and 1.94–5.15%, and gas savings of 1.65–16.59%, 7.60–61.76%, and 62.07–93.33% in Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong, respectively, for the years 2017, 2020, 2050 and 2080. In addition, BioPCM and RUBITHERMPCM are the most efficient for improving thermal performance and saving energy in buildings in the tested regions and years.

  13. Climate conditions, workplace heat and occupational health in South-East Asia in the context of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias

    2017-09-01

    Occupational health is particularly affected by high heat exposures in workplaces, which will be an increasing problem as climate change progresses. People working in jobs of moderate or heavy work intensity in hot environments are at particular risk, owing to exposure to high environmental heat and internal heat production. This heat needs to be released to protect health, and such release is difficult or impossible at high temperatures and high air humidity. A range of clinical health effects can occur, and the heat-related physical exhaustion leads to a reduction of work capacity and labour productivity, which may cause substantial economic losses. Current trends in countries of the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region are towards higher ambient heat levels during large parts of each year, and modelling indicates continuing trends, which will particularly affect low-income individuals and communities. Prevention activities need to address the climate policies of each country, and to apply currently available heat-reducing technologies in workplaces whenever possible. Work activities can be adjusted to reduce exposure to daily heat peaks or seasonal heat concerns. Application of basic occupational health principles, such as supply of drinking water, enforcement of rest periods and training of workers and supervisors, is essential.

  14. Design parameters of a non-air-conditioned cinema hall for thermal comfort under arid-zone climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tiwari, G.N. (Indian Inst. of Tech., New Delhi (India). Centre for Energy Studies); Lugani, N. (Indian Inst. of Tech., New Delhi (India). Centre for Energy Studies); Singh, A.K. (Indian Inst. of Tech., New Delhi (India). Centre for Energy Studies)

    1993-01-01

    In this communication, a design of a cinema hall suitable for climatic conditions in an arid zone has been presented. The various cooling techniques, namely evaporative cooling, wind tower, ventilation/infiltration and natural cooling, have been incorporated in the design to achieve thermal comfort during the period of operation. The design parameters have been optimized on the basis of numerical computations after establishing an energy balance for each component of a cinema hall. It is observed that cooling treatment, i.e., a wind tower with a cooling pool on the roof provides reasonable thermal comfort inside the enclosure. (orig.)

  15. The exotic invasive plant Vincetoxicum rossicum is a strong competitor even outside its current realized climatic temperature range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurа Sanderson

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Dog-strangling vine (Vincetoxicum rossicum is an exotic plant originating from Central and Eastern Europe that is becoming increasingly invasive in southern Ontario, Canada. Once established, it successfully displaces local native plant species but mechanisms behind this plant’s high competitive ability are not fully understood. It is unknown whether cooler temperatures will limit the range expansion of V. rossicum, which has demonstrated high tolerance for other environmental variables such as light and soil moisture. Furthermore, if V. rossicum can establish outside its current climatic limit it is unknown whether competition with native species can significantly contribute to reduce fitness and slow down invasion. We conducted an experiment to test the potential of V. rossicum to spread into northern areas of Ontario using a set of growth chambers to simulate southern and northern Ontario climatic temperature regimes. We also tested plant-plant competition by growing V. rossicum in pots with a highly abundant native species, Solidago canadensis, and comparing growth responses to plants grown alone. We found that the fitness of V. rossicum was not affected by the cooler climate despite a delay in reproductive phenology. Growing V. rossicum with S. canadensis caused a significant reduction in seedpod biomass of V. rossicum. However, we did not detect a temperature x competition interaction in spite of evidence for adaptation of S. canadensis to cooler temperature conditions. We conclude that the spread of V. rossicum north within the tested range is unlikely to be limited by climatic temperature but competition with an abundant native species may contribute to slow it down.

  16. Climate conditions and drought assessment with the Palmer Drought Severity Index in Iran: evaluation of CORDEX South Asia climate projections (2070-2099)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senatore, Alfonso; Hejabi, Somayeh; Mendicino, Giuseppe; Bazrafshan, Javad; Irannejad, Parviz

    2018-03-01

    Climate change projections were evaluated over both the whole Iran and six zones having different precipitation regimes considering the CORDEX South Asia dataset, for assessing space-time distribution of drought occurrences in the future period 2070-2099 under RCP4.5 scenario. Initially, the performances of eight available CORDEX South Asia Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were assessed for the baseline period 1970-2005 through the GPCC v.7 precipitation dataset and the CFSR temperature dataset, which were previously selected as the most reliable within a set of five global datasets compared to 41 available synoptic stations. Though the CCLM RCM driven by the MPI-ESM-LR General Circulation Model is in general the most suitable for temperature and, together with the REMO 2009 RCM also driven by MPI-ESM-LR, for precipitation, their performances do not overwhelm other models for every season and zone in which Iranian territory was divided according to a principal component analysis approach. Hence, a weighting approach was tested and adopted to take into account useful information from every RCM in each of the six zones. The models resulting more reliable compared to current climate show a strong precipitation decrease. Weighted average predicts an overall yearly precipitation decrease of about 20%. Temperature projections provide a mean annual increase of 2.4 °C. Future drought scenarios were depicted by means of the self-calibrating version of the Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI) model. Weighted average predicts a sharp drying that can be configured as a real shift in mean climate conditions, drastically affecting water resources of the country.

  17. Mechanical, electrical and microstructural properties of cement-based materials in conditions of stray current flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Susanto, A.; Koleva, D.A.; Copuroglu, O.; Van Beek, C.; Van Breugel, K.

    2013-01-01

    This investigation presents a comparative study on mechanical properties, electrical resistivity and microstructure of mortar under DC current, compared to mortar in rest (no current) conditions. Monitoring was performed from 24h after casting until 84 days of cement hydration. A current density

  18. The influence of climatic conditions changes on grain yield in Winter Triticale (X Triticosecale Wittm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionuț RACZ

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is making out the influence of climatic changes on grain yield of winter triticale in relation with applied fertilizer. The influence of environmental conditions on growing and development of triticale plants depends of grow stages and their duration. During five experimental years (2010-2015 the climatic conditions were different year to year, with an accentuated heating trend, influencing plant phenology, accelerating or slowing down some important processes disturbing grain yield formation. The influence of drought is more accentuated by heating stress and prolonging of these conditions during the main phenological processes have a negative influence on plant growth or development with effect on the grain yield formation process.

  19. Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

    2011-01-01

    Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

  20. Worsened physical condition due to climate change contributes to the increasing hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jiabi; Shen, Jian; Park, Kyeong; Wang, Ya Ping; Yu, Xin

    2018-07-15

    There are increasing concerns about the impact of worsened physical condition on hypoxia in a variety of coastal systems, especially considering the influence of changing climate. In this study, an EOF analysis of the DO data for 1985-2012, a long-term numerical simulation of vertical exchange, and statistical analysis were applied to understand the underlying mechanisms for the variation of DO condition in Chesapeake Bay. Three types of analysis consistently demonstrated that both biological and physical conditions contribute equally to seasonal and interannual variations of the hypoxic condition in Chesapeake Bay. We found the physical condition (vertical exchange+temperature) determines the spatial and seasonal pattern of the hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay. The EOF analysis showed that the first mode, which was highly related to the physical forcings and correlated with the summer hypoxia volume, can be well explained by seasonal and interannual variations of physical variables and biological activities, while the second mode is significantly correlated with the estuarine circulation and river discharge. The weakened vertical exchange and increased water temperature since the 1980s demonstrated a worsened physical condition over the past few decades. Under changing climate (e.g., warming, accelerated sea-level rise, altered precipitation and wind patterns), Chesapeake Bay is likely to experience a worsened physical condition, which will amplify the negative impact of anthropogenic inputs on eutrophication and consequently require more efforts for nutrient reduction to improve the water quality condition in Chesapeake Bay. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rugiu, Luca; Manninen, Iita; Rothäusler, Eva; Jormalainen, Veijo

    2018-03-01

    Climate change is threating species' persistence worldwide. To predict species responses to climate change we need information not just on their environmental tolerance but also on its adaptive potential. We tested how the foundation species of rocky littoral habitats, Fucus vesiculosus, responds to combined hyposalinity and warming projected to the Baltic Sea by 2070-2099. We quantified responses of replicated populations originating from the entrance, central, and marginal Baltic regions. Using replicated individuals, we tested for the presence of within-population tolerance variation. Future conditions hampered growth and survival of the central and marginal populations whereas the entrance populations fared well. Further, both the among- and within-population variation in responses to climate change indicated existence of genetic variation in tolerance. Such standing genetic variation provides the raw material necessary for adaptation to a changing environment, which may eventually ensure the persistence of the species in the inner Baltic Sea. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Quantifying conditional risks for water and energy systems using climate information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2016-12-01

    There has been a growing recognition of the multi-scale spatio-temporal organization of climate dynamics, and its implications for predictable, structured risk exposure to populations and infrastructure systems. At the most base level is an understanding that there are some identifiable climate modes, such as ENSO, that are associated with such outcomes. This has led to the emergence of a small cottage industry of analysts who relate different "climate indices" to specific regional outcomes. Such efforts and the associated media interest in these simplified "stories" have led to an increasing appreciation of the phenomenon, and some formal and informal efforts at decision making using such information. However, as was demonstrated through the 2014-16 El Nino forecasting season, many climate scientists over-emphasized the potential risks, while others cautioned the media as to the caveats and uncertainties associated with assuming that the forecasts of ENSO and the expected teleconnections may pan out. At least in certain sectors and regions, significant efforts or expectations as to outcomes were put in place, and some were beneficial, while others failed to manifest. Climate informed predictions for water and energy systems can be thought of as efforts to infer conditional distributions of specific outcomes given information on climate state. Invariably, the climate state may be presented as a very high dimensional spatial set of variables, with limited temporal sampling, while the water and energy attributes may be regional and constitute a much smaller dimension. One may, of course, be interested in the fact that the same climate state may lead to synchronous positive and negative effects across many locations, as may be expected under mid-latitude stationary and transient wave interaction. In this talk, I will provide examples of a few modern statistical and machine learning tools that allow a decomposition of the high dimensional climate state and its relation

  3. An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

    2016-12-01

    The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

  4. Simulating the Current Water Cycle with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Brecht, A. S.; Urata, R. A.; Montmessin, F.

    2017-12-01

    The water cycle is a critical component of the current Mars climate system, and it is now widely recognized that water ice clouds significantly affect the nature of the simulated water cycle. Two processes are key to implementing clouds in a Mars global climate model (GCM): the microphysical processes of formation and dissipation, and their radiative effects on atmospheric heating/cooling rates. Together, these processes alter the thermal structure, change the atmospheric dynamics, and regulate inter-hemispheric transport. We have made considerable progress using the NASA Ames Mars GCM to simulate the current-day water cycle with radiatively active clouds. Cloud fields from our baseline simulation are in generally good agreement with observations. The predicted seasonal extent and peak IR optical depths are consistent MGS/TES observations. Additionally, the thermal response to the clouds in the aphelion cloud belt (ACB) is generally consistent with observations and other climate model predictions. Notably, there is a distinct gap in the predicted clouds over the North Residual Cap (NRC) during local summer, but the clouds reappear in this simulation over the NRC earlier than the observations indicate. Polar clouds are predicted near the seasonal CO2 ice caps, but the column thicknesses of these clouds are generally too thick compared to observations. Our baseline simulation is dry compared to MGS/TES-observed water vapor abundances, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. These areas of disagreement appear to be a consistent with other current water cycle GCMs. Future avenues of investigation will target improving our understanding of what controls the vertical extent of clouds and the apparent seasonal evolution of cloud particle sizes within the ACB.

  5. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

  6. The role of seasonal, climatic and meteorological conditions in modifying nuclear accident consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, H.; Proehl, G.

    1989-01-01

    One of the most important factors which influence the ingestion doses after an accidental release of radionuclides is the season of the year at which the release occurs. This is demonstrated with some examples for German conditions. This seasonal effect depends strongly on the growing periods of the different plants. Therefore it is influenced by the climatic conditions which vary to a large degree in the different countries causing very different growing periods. The influence of the meteorological conditions during and after the passing of a radioactive cloud on the initial contamination of the plants is discussed

  7. Mean versus extreme climate in the Mediterranean region and its sensitivity to future global warming conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paeth, H.; Hense, A. [Meteorological Inst., Univ. Bonn (Germany)

    2005-06-01

    The Mediterranean region (MTR) has been supposed to be very sensitive to changes in land surface and atmospheric greenhouse-gas (GHG) concentrations. Particularly, an intensification of climate extremes may be associated with severe socio-economic implications. Here, we present an analysis of climate mean and extreme conditions in this subtropical area based on regional climate model experiments, simulating the present-day and possible future climate. The analysis of extreme values (EVs) is based on the assumption that the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface temperature are well fitted by the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Return values of extreme daily events are determined using the method of L-moments. Particular emphasis is laid on the evaluation of the return values with respect to the uncertainty range of the estimate as derived from a Monte Carlo sampling approach. During the most recent 25 years the MTR has become dryer in spring but more humid especially in the western part in autumn and winter. At the same time, the whole region has been subject to a substantial warming. The strongest rainfall extremes are simulated in autumn over the Mediterranean Sea around Italy. Temperature extremes are most pronounced over the land masses, especially over northern Africa. Given the large uncertainty of the EV estimate, only 1-year return values are further analysed. During recent decades, statistically significant changes in extremes are only found for temperature. Future climate conditions may come along with a decrease in mean and extreme precipitation during the cold season, whereas an intensification of the hydrological cycle is predicted in summer and autumn. Temperature is predominantly affected over the Iberian Peninsula and the eastern part of the MTR. In many grid boxes, the signals are blurred out due to the large amount of uncertainty in the EV estimate. Thus, a careful analysis is required when making inferences about the future

  8. Attribution of soil moisture dynamics - Initial conditions vs. atmospheric forcing and the role of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2014-05-01

    The world's climate has started to change more quickly in recent decades and a stronger and faster shift is expected in the future. Even if the public perception is mostly limited to a widespread warming, climate change is a complex phenomenon impacting numerous variables of the climate system in different ways, also depending on time and location. Furthermore, extreme events may change more drastically than the mean climate. There is growing evidence that climate change is mostly man-made. However, it is still a matter of debate to which extent changes of the mean climate but also of particular (extreme) events are due to human impact. These questions are addressed by the growing science of climate attribution. Pointing out the anthropogenic influence on extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heatwave or the 2002 floods in Central Europe may help to support adaptation to climate change. This study investigates soil moisture in Europe in the context of climate change, because of its role as a key variable of the land-climate system and its practical importance for instance to agriculture. To derive soil moisture dynamics from 1984-2007 we use E-OBS forcing data together with SRB radiation data and employ an observation-based approach where soil moisture is computed from a water balance equation in which runoff (normalized with precipitation) and ET (normalized with net radiation) are simple functions of soil moisture. The constant runoff function is prescribed for the whole continent, and the ET function is calibrated using temperature data. After performing a validation of the inferred soil moisture data we use it in order to analyze changes in the likelihood of droughts. Our results show increased drought risk especially in north-eastern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereby the probability of extreme droughts increases stronger as for mild dryness episodes. To assess the potential for drought forecasting we furthermore study the importance of the initial

  9. Optimization of Photovoltaic Electrolyzer Hybrid systems; taking into account the effect of climate conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayedin, Farid; Maroufmashat, Azadeh; Sattari, Sourena; Elkamel, Ali; Fowler, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The optimal size of directly coupled Photovoltaic–Electrolyzer (PV/EL) is studied. • The effect of climate condition on the performance of PV/EL is studied. • PV/EL energy transfer loss and the levelized cost of hydrogen production minimized. • The model is applied to locations with different climate and solar irradiations. • Solar to electricity/electricity to hydrogen/solar to hydrogen efficiencies are derived. - Abstract: Solar energy will make a valuable contribution for power generation in the future. However the intermittency of solar energy has become an important issue in the utilization of PV system, especially small scale distributed solar energy conversion systems. The issue can be addressed through the management of production and storage of the energy in the form of hydrogen. The hydrogen can be produced by solar photovoltaic (PV) powered electrolysis of water. The amount of transferred energy to an electrolyzer from a PV module is a function of the distance between maximum power points (MPP) of PV module and the electrolyzer operating points. The distance can be minimized by optimizing the number of series and parallel units of the electrolyzer. However the maximum power points are subject to PV module characteristics, solar irradiation and ambient temperature. This means the climate condition can substantially influence the MPP and therefore the optimal size of the PV–Electrolyzer (PV/EL) system. On the other hand, system size can affect the levelized cost of hydrogen production as well. In this paper, the impact of climate conditions on the optimal size and operating conditions of a direct coupled photovoltaic–electrolyzer system has been studied. For this purpose, the optimal size of electrolyzer for six cities which have different climate condition is obtained by considering two solution scenarios, regarding two objectives which are annual energy transfer loss and levelized costs of hydrogen production and then the

  10. Hydro-climatic conditions and thermoelectric electricity generation – Part I: Development of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koch, Hagen; Vögele, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    In recent years there have been several heat waves affecting the use of thermoelectric power plants, e.g. in Europe and the U.S. In this paper the linkage between hydro-climatic conditions and possible electricity generation restrictions is described. The coupling of hydrological models and a power plant model is presented. In this approach each power plant is considered separately with its technical specifications. Also environmental regulations, e.g. permissible rise in the cooling water temperature, are considered for the respective power plant. The hydrological models developed to simulate river runoff and water temperature are also site specific. The approach presented is applied to Krümmel nuclear power plant in Germany. Analysed are the uncertainties with regard to electricity generation restrictions on account of climatic developments and corresponding higher water temperatures and low flows. Overall, increased water temperatures and declining river runoff lead to more frequent and more severe generation restrictions. It is concluded that the site-specific approach is necessary to reliably simulate power plants water demand, river runoff and water temperature. Using a simulation time step of one day, electricity generation restrictions are significantly higher than for simulations at monthly time step. - Highlights: • An approach to assess climate effects on electricity generation is presented. • Site specific models for power plants, water temperature and discharge are used. • Monthly and daily simulation time-steps give different results. • Climate change effects on generation depend on cooling system and climate scenario

  11. Fixing Climate: What Past Climate Changes Reveal About the Current Threat-And How to Counter It

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinley, Galen A.

    2008-10-01

    The Earth's climate is changing due to human activities. Recent polls suggest that the U.S. public generally recognizes this fact, and the efforts that led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former U.S. vice president Al Gore to win the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize have played no small role in bringing most of the public to realize what scientists have been discussing for years. Yet aside from distorted Hollywood movie accounts such as The Day After Tomorrow, the public knows little about the potential for abrupt change in the climate system. With support from climate science philanthropist Gary Comer, climate scientist Wally Broecker has teamed with science writer Robert Kunzig in this book to bring abrupt climate change into public view. They do this elegantly and convincingly, making the first 12 chapters quite enjoyable.

  12. The cold climate geomorphology of the Eastern Cape Drakensberg: A reevaluation of past climatic conditions during the last glacial cycle in Southern Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Mills, SC; Barrows, TT; Telfer, MW; Fifield, LK

    2017-01-01

    publisher: Elsevier articletitle: The cold climate geomorphology of the Eastern Cape Drakensberg: A reevaluation of past climatic conditions during the last glacial cycle in Southern Africa journaltitle: Geomorphology articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.11.011 content_type: article copyright: Crown Copyright © 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Goeteborg (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report is concerned with the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during periglacial and glacial climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Vidstrand et al. 2010/. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle at Laxemar. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 13,000 years. The simulation results comprise pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance and the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties

  14. How do Changes in Hydro-Climate Conditions Alter the Risk of Infection With Fasciolosis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltrame, L.; Dunne, T.; Rose, H.; Walker, J.; Morgan, E.; Vickerman, P.; Wagener, T.

    2017-12-01

    Fasciolosis is a widespread parasitic disease of livestock and is emerging as a major zoonosis. Since the parasite and its intermediate host live and develop in the environment, risk of infection is directly affected by climatic-environmental conditions. Changes in disease prevalence, seasonality and distribution have been reported in recent years and attributed to altered temperature and rainfall patterns, raising concerns about the effects of climate change in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to understand how changes in climate-environmental drivers may alter the dynamics of disease risk in a quantitative way, to guide parasite control strategies and interventions in the coming decades. In a previous work, we developed and tested a novel mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Fasciolosis, which explicitly represents the parasite life-cycle in connection with key environmental processes, allowing to capture the impact of previously unseen conditions. In this study, we use the new mechanistic model to assess the sensitivity of infection rates to changes in climate-environmental factors. This is challenging as processes underlying disease transmission are complex and interacting, and may have contrasting effects on the parasite life-cycle stages. To this end, we set up a sensitivity analysis framework to investigate in a structured way which factors play a key role in controlling the magnitude, timing and spread of infection, and how the sensitivity of disease risk varies in time and space. Moreover, we define synthetic scenarios to explore the space of possible variability of the hydro-climate drivers and investigate conditions that lead to critical levels of infection. The study shows how the new model combined with the sensitivity analysis framework can support decision-making, providing useful information for disease management.

  15. Assessment of tourism and recreation destinations under climate change conditions in Austria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matzarakis, Andreas; Haemmerle, Martin [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Endler, Christina [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Research Center Human Biometeorology, Freiburg (Germany). German Weather Service; Muthers, Stefan [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research; Koch, Elisabeth [Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamcis, Vienna (Austria)

    2012-04-15

    Tourism and recreation are important economic factors which are directly connected to weather and climate of a specific destination. Based on the observation network of the Central Institute of Meteorology and Geodynamics of Austria (ZAMG), data of 37 stations has been collected and analysed for tourism and recreation purposes. The analysis was based on long term data sets which were processed in relevant ways for tourism and recreation, resulting in frequency diagrams of Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and precipitation. Additionally, we prepared the results according to the demands of tourism and recreation authorities and industry using the Climate-Tourism/Transfer-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Applying data from the regional climate models REMO and CLM we can provide information on future climate conditions in Austria's recreation areas. We chose two different time slices (2021-2050, 2071-2100) and IPCC emission scenarios (A1B, B1). The data was processed based on the threshold factors which are included in the CTIS (e.g. thermal comfort, heat stress, cold stress, sunshine, etc.). For the time slice 2021-2050 only moderate changes can be expected. But for 2071-2100 one can observe a distinct decrease of cold stress and the skiing potential. On the other hand, moderate increases of thermal comfort, heat stress, sultriness and sunshine are expected. No tendencies can be seen in precipitation and wind conditions. (orig.)

  16. Magnetic Field Perturbations from Currents in the Dark Polar Regions During Quiet Geomagnetic Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Christensen, Eigil; Finlay, Chris; Hesse, M.

    2017-01-01

    In the day-side sunlit polar ionosphere the varying and IMF dependent convection creates strong ionospheric currents even during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Observations during such times are often excluded when using satellite data to model the internal geomagneticmain field. Observations from...... the night-side or local winter during quiet conditions are, however, also influenced by variations in the IMF. In this paper we briefly review the large scale features of the ionospheric currents in the polar regions with emphasis on the current distribution during undisturbed conditions. We examine...

  17. Systematic review of current efforts to quantify the impacts of climate change on undernutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phalkey, Revati K; Aranda-Jan, Clara; Marx, Sabrina; Höfle, Bernhard; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2015-08-18

    Malnutrition is a challenge to the health and productivity of populations and is viewed as one of the five largest adverse health impacts of climate change. Nonetheless, systematic evidence quantifying these impacts is currently limited. Our aim was to assess the scientific evidence base for the impact of climate change on childhood undernutrition (particularly stunting) in subsistence farmers in low- and middle-income countries. A systematic review was conducted to identify peer-reviewed and gray full-text documents in English with no limits for year of publication or study design. Fifteen manuscripts were reviewed. Few studies use primary data to investigate the proportion of stunting that can be attributed to climate/weather variability. Although scattered and limited, current evidence suggests a significant but variable link between weather variables, e.g., rainfall, extreme weather events (floods/droughts), seasonality, and temperature, and childhood stunting at the household level (12 of 15 studies, 80%). In addition, we note that agricultural, socioeconomic, and demographic factors at the household and individual levels also play substantial roles in mediating the nutritional impacts. Comparable interdisciplinary studies based on primary data at a household level are urgently required to guide effective adaptation, particularly for rural subsistence farmers. Systemization of data collection at the global level is indispensable and urgent. We need to assimilate data from long-term, high-quality agricultural, environmental, socioeconomic, health, and demographic surveillance systems and develop robust statistical methods to establish and validate causal links, quantify impacts, and make reliable predictions that can guide evidence-based health interventions in the future.

  18. Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selsted, Merete Bang

    on ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions, shows that extended summer drought in combination with elevated temperature will ensure permanent dryer soil conditions, which decreases carbon turnover, while elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations will increase...... carbon turnover. In the full future climate scenario, carbon turnover is over all expected to increase and the heathland to become a source of atmospheric CO2. The methodology of static chamber CO2 flux measurements and applying the technology in a FACE (free air CO2 enrichment) facility is a challenge...... on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the CO2 soil-atmosphere gradient....

  19. Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Dengpan; Shen, Yanjun; Zhang, He; Moiwo, Juana P.; Qi, Yongqing; Wang, Rende; Pei, Hongwei; Zhang, Yucui; Shen, Huitao

    2016-09-01

    Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under well irrigated (CFG) and rain-fed (YY) conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain (NCP). The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCP. The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCP. There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water (CFG and YY) conditions. While a temperature increase of 2°C was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1°C decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rainfed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈3.5% per 60 ppm (parts per million) increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to 560 ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.

  20. Optimized calculation of the synergy conditions between electron cyclotron current drive and lower hybrid current drive on EAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Wei; Ding Bo-Jiang; Li Miao-Hui; Zhang Xin-Jun; Wang Xiao-Jie; Peysson, Y; Decker, J; Zhang Lei

    2016-01-01

    The optimized synergy conditions between electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) and lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) with normal parameters of the EAST tokamak are studied by using the C3PO/LUKE code based on the understanding of the synergy mechanisms so as to obtain a higher synergistic current and provide theoretical reference for the synergistic effect in the EAST experiment. The dependences of the synergistic effect on the parameters of two waves (lower hybrid wave (LHW) and electron cyclotron wave (ECW)), including the radial position of the power deposition, the power value of the LH and EC waves, and the parallel refractive indices of the LHW (N ∥ ) are presented and discussed. (paper)

  1. Evaluation of growth and flowering potential of rosa hybrida cultivars under Faisalabad climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nadeem, M.; Khan, M.A.; Riaz, A.

    2011-01-01

    Exotic cultivars of hybrid roses respond uncertainly to new habitat. It is necessary to explore the potential of the introduced cultivars to judge the suitability in a new habitat. In the present study, nine Rosa hybrida cultivars including Autumn Sunset, Ice Berg, Paradise, Angel Face, Louise Odier, Casino, Grand Margina, Handel and Gruss-an-Teplitz were evaluated for growth and yield attributed under the climatic conditions of Faisalabad. Results indicated that there was decreasing trend in the growth and flowering of the bushes as the temperature increased above 32 degree C and humidity decreased to 29 %. Number of flowers per bush and diameter of flower decreased as the temperature increased and humidity decreased in contrast to increment in height of the plant and num ber of primary branches per plant in succeeding months. Interaction between yield traits and months was also significant. Overall, significant variations were observed in each cultivar for length and number of petals per flower, number of prickles, fragrance, flower persistence life and color, bush shape and overall performance with respect to climatic conditions of Faisalabad. It is concluded that the cultivars 'Autumn Sunset' and Gruss-an-Teplitz performed better in climatic conditions of Faisalabad. (author)

  2. Life cycle cost analysis of HPVT air collector under different Indian climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raman, Vivek; Tiwari, G.N.

    2008-01-01

    In this communication, a study is carried out to evaluate an annual thermal and exergy efficiency of a hybrid photovoltaic thermal (HPVT) air collector for different Indian climate conditions, of Srinagar, Mumbai, Jodhpur, New Delhi and Banglore. The study has been based on electrical, thermal and exergy output of the HPVT air collector. Further, the life cycle analysis in terms of cost/kWh has been carried out. The main focus of the study is to see the effect of interest rate, life of the HPVT air collector, subsidy, etc. on the cost/kWh HPVT air collector. A comparison is made keeping in view the energy matrices. The study reveals that (i) annual thermal and electrical efficiency decreases with increase in solar radiation and (ii) the cost/kWh is higher in case of exergy when compared with cost/kWh on the basis of thermal energy for all climate conditions. The cost/kWh for climate conditions of Jodhpur is most economical

  3. Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

    2017-03-01

    The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

  4. Performance of three saudi arabian date palm varieties under the agro-climatic conditions of khairpur

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soad, A.A.A.

    2013-01-01

    Date palms of 10 year old Ajwa, Safawi and Ruthana varieties from Al-Madina, Saudi Arabia were evaluated under the agro-climatic conditions of Khairpur, Sindh, Pakistan throughout the growing seasons from 2009 to 2011. The results obtained indicated better fruit quality similar to those fruits obtained from the original place of origin. The palms of the three varieties were thriving successfully. The edible stage of vars. Ajwa and Safawi is tamer and rutab for var. Ruthana. The fruit was harvested early from 13 to 20th of July before the onset of monsoons. The fruit size of vars. Ajwa, Safawi and Ruthana at their edible stages were 3.16, 4.25 and 3.52 cm long, and 2.31, 2.05 and 2.38 cm in diameter, respectively. The average fruit and seed weight of vars. Ajwa, Safawi and Ruthana were 11.42, 10.49 and 12.42 g, and 1.23, 0.88 and 1.1 g, respectively. The fruit flesh percentage in vars. Ajwa, Safawi and Ruthana reached 89.14%, 90.84% and 90.92%, respectively. It was found that the climatic conditions of Khairpur are suitable for the cultivation of these three exotic varieties. The vegetative, flowering and fruit characteristics of the three varieties were described, and the impact of climatic conditions on fruit quality was discussed in this study. (author)

  5. Collaborative Research: Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melillo, Jerry [Marine Biological Lab., Woods Hole, MA (United States)

    2017-12-12

    Our overall goal in this research was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal was motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we tested the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming. In collaboration with our Purdue and MIT colleagues, we have attempted to quantify global climate warming effects on land-atmosphere interactions, land-river network interactions, permafrost degradation, vegetation shifts, and land use influence water, carbon, and nitrogen fluxes to and from terrestrial ecosystems in the pan-arctic along with their

  6. Determinants of Current Account Deficit in Turkey: The Conditional and Partial Granger Causality Approach

    OpenAIRE

    YURDAKUL, Funda; CEVHER, Erdogan

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to reveal the causality relations between the macro aggregates that affect current deficit using conditional and partial Granger causality test. Current deficit/GDP, growth rate, real effective exchange rate, direct foreign capital investment, openness, and energy import were selected as variables for this purpose. 2003.1-2014.2 quarterly data for Turkey’s economy were used for analysis. The results of the conditional and partial Granger causality test demonstrate that real ef...

  7. Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

    2012-12-01

    -adapted canola varieties can be justified, and the potential value of a California canola industry both now and in the future. Winter annual crops like canola use rainfall in a Mediterranean climate like California more efficiently than spring or summer crops. Our results suggest that under current production costs and seed prices, dry farmed canola will have good potential in certain areas of the California. Canola yields decline with annual winter precipitation, however economically viable yields are still achieved at relatively precipitation levels (200 mm). Results from simulation, combined with related economic modeling (reported elsewhere) suggest that canola will be viable in a variety of production systems in the northern Sacramento Valley and some coastal locations, even under drier future climate scenarios. The in-field evaluation of Australian canola varieties should contribute to maintain or improving resource use efficiency and farm profitability.

  8. SEAFLOOR MORPHOLOGY INFLUENCES ON CURRENT CONDITION IN A SUNDA STRAIT BRIDGE PROJECT USING NUMERICAL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franto Novico

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available It has been more than 50 years since the idea to construct the bridge of Sunda Strait was inspirited by Prof. Sedyatmo. This issued is very important due to accelerate the economic growth between Sumatera Island and Java Island which is known as the densest population in the Indonesia. However, until today the bridge is still not construct yet because the high budget and the lack of technical data are still being problems. One of the most important data is current condition along the Sunda Strait. Unfortunately, no one has been clearly studied about current condition along Sunda Strait. Therefore, the information about current condition would be completed to fulfil the lack of data and information. The RV Geomarine I, as a research vessel conducted the survey in October 2012 that one of the objectives is to get the impression about the current condition around the bridge plan. Attaching echo sounder of bathy 1500 to get the depth profile and applied the RD Instrument ADCP Mobile Workhorse Monitor 300 kHz to collect the real current data and analyze the current using numerical model by Mike 21 were carried out to describe the condition of the current around the bridge proposed. In addition, the detail flexible mesh of hydrodynamic model is applied along bridge plan to analyse the current condition that caused by seafloor morphology. Based on the ADCP data it would be seen that the highest velocity record of the current occurs at October 18th 2012 at line 19 with the value 2.63 m/sec. Nevertheless, the numerical model shown the highest current velocity occurs around the northwest of Sangiang Island where the speed attains more than 4.59 m/sec.

  9. How do climate and human impact affect Sphagnum peatlands under oceanic-continental climatic conditions? 2000 years of fire and hydrological history of a bog in Northern Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcisz, Katarzyna; Tinner, Willy; Colombaroli, Daniele; Kołaczek, Piotr; Słowiński, Michał; Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł, Barbara; Lamentowicz, Mariusz

    2014-05-01

    Climate change affects many natural processes and the same applies to human impact For instance climate change and anthropogenic activities may cause increased fire activity or change peatland dynamics. Currently it is still unknown how Sphagnum peatlands in the oceanic-continental transition zone of Poland may respond to combined effects of heat waves, drought and fire. The aim of the study was to reconstruct the last 2000 years palaeohydrology and fire history at Linje bog in Northern Poland. The main task was to determine the drivers of fire episodes, particularly to identify climatic and anthropogenic forcing. A two-meter peat core was extracted and subsampled with a high resolution. Micro- and macroscopic charcoal analyses were applied to determine past fire activity and the results compared with palaeohydrological reconstructions based on testate amoeba analysis. Palynological human indicators were used to reconstruct human activity. A depth-age model including 20 14C dates was constructed to calculate peat accumulation rates and charcoal influx. We hypothesised that: 1) fire frequency in Northern Poland was determined by climatic conditions (combination of low precipitation and heat waves), as reflected in peatland water table, and that 2) past fire episodes in the last millennium were intensified by human activity. Furthermore climate may have influenced human activity over harvest success and the carrying capacity. Our study shows that fire was important for the studied ecosystem, however, its frequency has increased in the last millennium in concomitance with land use activities. Landscape humanization and vegetation opening were followed by a peatland drying during the Little Ice Age (from ca. AD 1380). Similarly to other palaeoecological studies from Poland, Linje peatland possessed an unstable hydrology during the Little Ice Age. Increased fire episodes appeared shortly before the Little Ice Age and most severe fires were present in the time when

  10. Potential changes in the extreme climate conditions at the regional scale: from observed data to modelling approaches and towards probabilistic climate change information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gachon, P.; Radojevic, M.; Harding, A.; Saad, C.; Nguyen, V.T.V.

    2008-01-01

    The changes in the characteristics of extreme climate conditions are one of the most critical challenges for all ecosystems, human being and infrastructure, in the context of the on-going global climate change. However, extremes information needed for impacts studies cannot be obtained directly from coarse scale global climate models (GCMs), due mainly to their difficulties to incorporate regional scale feedbacks and processes responsible in part for the occurrence, intensity and duration of extreme events. Downscaling approaches, namely statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques (i.e. SD and RCM), have emerged as useful tools to develop high resolution climate change information, in particular for extremes, as those are theoretically more capable to take into account regional/local forcings and their feedbacks from large scale influences as they are driven with GCM synoptic variables. Nevertheless, in spite of the potential added values from downscaling methods (statistical and dynamical), a rigorous assessment of these methods are needed as inherent difficulties to simulate extremes are still present. In this paper, different series of RCM and SD simulations using three different GCMs are presented and evaluated with respect to observed values over the current period and over a river basin in southern Quebec, with future ensemble runs, i.e. centered over 2050s (i.e. 2041-2070 period using the SRES A2 emission scenario). Results suggest that the downscaling performance over the baseline period significantly varies between the two downscaling techniques and over various seasons with more regular reliable simulated values with SD technique for temperature than for RCM runs, while both approaches produced quite similar temperature changes in the future from median values with more divergence for extremes. For precipitation, less accurate information is obtained compared to observed data, and with more differences among models with higher uncertainties in the

  11. Criterion for burn-up conditions in gas-cooled cryogenic current leads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bejan, A.; Cluss, E.M. Jr.

    1976-01-01

    Superconducting magnets are energized through helium vapour-cooled cryogenic current leads operating at high ratios of current to mass flow. The high current operation where lead temperature, runaway, and eventual burn-up are likely to occur is investigated. A simple criterion for estimating the burn-up operation conditions (current, mass flow) for a given lead geometry (cross-sectional area, length, heat exchanger area) is presented. This article stresses the role played by the available heat exchanger area in avoiding burn-up at high ratios of current to mass flow. (author)

  12. Three Gorges Reservoir Area: soil erosion under natural condition vs. soil erosion under current land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schönbrodt, Sarah; Behrens, Thorsten; Scholten, Thomas

    2010-05-01

    Apparently, the current most prominent human-induced example for large scale environmental impact is the Three Gorges Dam in China. The flooding alongside the Yangtze River, and its tributaries results in a vast loss of settlement and farmland area with productive, fertile valley soils. Due to the associated high land use dynamic on uphill-sites, the soil resources are underlying high land use pressure. Within our study, the soil erosion under natural conditions is compared to the soil erosion under current land use after the impoundment. Both were modeled using the empirical Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) which is able to predict long-term annual soil loss with limited data. The database consists of digital terrain data (45 m resolution DEM, erosive slope length based on Monte-Carlo-Aggregation according to Behrens et al. (2008)), field investigations of recent erosion forms, and literature studies. The natural disposition to soil erosion was calculated considering the USLE factors R, S, and K. The soil erosion under current land use was calculated taking into account all USLE factors. The study area is the catchment of the Xiangxi River in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Within the Xiangxi Catchment (3,200 km²) the highly dynamic backwater area (580 km²), and two micro-scale study sites (Xiangjiaba with 2.8 km², and Quyuan with 88 km²) are considered more detailed as they are directly affected by the river impoundment. Central features of the Xiangxi Catchment are the subtropical monsoon climate, an extremely steep sloping relief (mean slope angle 39°, SD 22.8°) artificially fractured by farmland terraces, and a high soil erodibility (mean K factor 0.37, SD 0.13). On the catchment scale the natural disposition to soil erosion makes up to mean 518.0 t ha-1 a-1. The maximum potential soil loss of 1,730.1 t ha-1 a-1 under natural conditions is reached in the Quyuan site (mean 635.8 t ha-1 a-1) within the backwater area (mean 582.9 t ha-1 a-1). In the

  13. Gate current for p+-poly PMOS devices under gate injection conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, A.J.; Holleman, J.; Woerlee, P.H.

    2001-01-01

    In current CMOS processing both n+-poly and p+-poly gates are used. The I-V –relationship and reliability of n+-poly devices are widely studied and well understood. Gate currents and reliability for p+-poly PMOS devices under gate injection conditions are not well understood. In this paper, the

  14. Current Percolation in Medium with Boundaries under Quantum Hall Effect Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. U. Malakeeva

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The current percolation has been considered in the medium with boundaries under quantum Hall effect conditions. It has been shown that in that case the effective Hall conductivity has a nonzero value due to percolation of the Hall current through the finite number of singular points (in our model these are corners at the phase joints.

  15. Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, João A.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2011-03-01

    The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

  16. Extending to seasonal scales the current usage of short range weather forecasts and climate projections for water management in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Camino, Ernesto; Voces, José; Sánchez, Eroteida; Navascues, Beatriz; Pouget, Laurent; Roldan, Tamara; Gómez, Manuel; Cabello, Angels; Comas, Pau; Pastor, Fernando; Concepción García-Gómez, M.°; José Gil, Juan; Gil, Delfina; Galván, Rogelio; Solera, Abel

    2016-04-01

    This presentation, first, briefly describes the current use of weather forecasts and climate projections delivered by AEMET for water management in Spain. The potential use of seasonal climate predictions for water -in particular dams- management is then discussed more in-depth, using a pilot experience carried out by a multidisciplinary group coordinated by AEMET and DG for Water of Spain. This initiative is being developed in the framework of the national implementation of the GFCS and the European project, EUPORIAS. Among the main components of this experience there are meteorological and hydrological observations, and an empirical seasonal forecasting technique that provides an ensemble of water reservoir inflows. These forecasted inflows feed a prediction model for the dam state that has been adapted for this purpose. The full system is being tested retrospectively, over several decades, for selected water reservoirs located in different Spanish river basins. The assessment includes an objective verification of the probabilistic seasonal forecasts using standard metrics, and the evaluation of the potential social and economic benefits, with special attention to drought and flooding conditions. The methodology of implementation of these seasonal predictions in the decision making process is being developed in close collaboration with final users participating in this pilot experience.

  17. Climate change and future overwintering conditions of horticultural woody-plants in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laapas, M.; Jylhae, K.; Tuomenvirta, H. (Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland))

    2012-07-01

    Climate in Finland offers challenging conditions for commercial horticulture. The short and insufficient growing season together with risky overwintering strongly limits species suitable for cultivation. The aim of this study was to examine the climatic conditions around Finland in the aspect of horticulture, focusing on processes relevant to woody plants and species with photoperiod controlled growth cessation, and how these conditions may be expected to change due to the projected global warming. For this, a set of temperature-related indices and threshold events were used. These indices represent the severity of coldness during winter, wintertime thaws, and frost events close to the onset and ending of the growing season. The combined results of 19 GCMs (General Circulation Model) from the CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3) multi-model data set under SRES-B1 and SRES-A2 (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios were used to produce the future projections. By mid-century our results suggest wintertime conditions with reduced cold stress, caused by less frequent and shorter periods of severe frost together with a rise in the extreme minimum temperature. Conversely, an increase in the number and intensity of wintertime thaw events leads to a higher risk in overwintering. Also the risk of spring frost damage is projected to decrease slightly, and the conditions for cold hardening process to improve, as the first autumnal frosts occur later. (orig.)

  18. Wood energy for residential heating in Alaska: current conditions, attitudes, and expected use

    Science.gov (United States)

    David L. Nicholls; Allen M. Brackley; Valerie. Barber

    2010-01-01

    This study considered three aspects of residential wood energy use in Alaska: current conditions and fuel consumption, knowledge and attitudes, and future use and conditions. We found that heating oil was the primary fuel for home heating in southeast and interior Alaska, whereas natural gas was used most often in south-central Alaska (Anchorage). Firewood heating...

  19. Reducing condition number by appropriate current decomposition on a multiplet of several wires

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Lysko, AA

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses a numerical investigation in connection with the dependency of the condition number of the impedance matrix on the decomposition of current on a junction with several attached wires (multiplet). It is shown that the condition...

  20. Under which climate and soil conditions the plant productivity-precipitation relationship is linear or nonlinear?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Jian-Sheng; Pei, Jiu-Ying; Fang, Chao

    2018-03-01

    Understanding under which climate and soil conditions the plant productivity-precipitation relationship is linear or nonlinear is useful for accurately predicting the response of ecosystem function to global environmental change. Using long-term (2000-2016) net primary productivity (NPP)-precipitation datasets derived from satellite observations, we identify >5600pixels in the North Hemisphere landmass that fit either linear or nonlinear temporal NPP-precipitation relationships. Differences in climate (precipitation, radiation, ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, temperature) and soil factors (nitrogen, phosphorous, organic carbon, field capacity) between the linear and nonlinear types are evaluated. Our analysis shows that both linear and nonlinear types exhibit similar interannual precipitation variabilities and occurrences of extreme precipitation. Permutational multivariate analysis of variance suggests that linear and nonlinear types differ significantly regarding to radiation, ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration, and soil factors. The nonlinear type possesses lower radiation and/or less soil nutrients than the linear type, thereby suggesting that nonlinear type features higher degree of limitation from resources other than precipitation. This study suggests several factors limiting the responses of plant productivity to changes in precipitation, thus causing nonlinear NPP-precipitation pattern. Precipitation manipulation and modeling experiments should combine with changes in other climate and soil factors to better predict the response of plant productivity under future climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Coupling climate conditions, sediment sources and sediment transport in an alpine basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainato, Riccardo; Picco, Lorenzo; Cavalli, Marco; Mao, Luca; Neverman, Andrew J.; Tarolli, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    In a fluvial system, mountain basins control sediment export to the lowland rivers. Hence, the analysis of the erosion processes and sediment delivery patterns that act in mountain basins is important. Several studies have investigated the alterations triggered by recent climatic change on the hydrological regime, whilst only a few works have explored the consequences on the sediment dynamics. Here we combined and analyzed the quasi-unique dataset of climatic conditions, landscape response, and sediment export produced, since 1986 in the Rio Cordon basin (5 km2, Eastern Italian Alps) to examine the sediment delivery processes occurring in the last three decades. The temperature, precipitation, and fluvial sediment fluxes in the basin were analyzed using continuous measurement executed by a permanent monitoring station, while the landscape evolution was investigated by three sediment source inventories established in 1994, 2006, and 2016. Thus, the analysis focused on the trends exhibited during the periods 1986-1993, 1994-2006, and 2007-2015. In terms of climatic conditions, three distinct climate forcing stages can be observed in the periods analyzed: a relatively stable phase (1986-1993), a period characterized by temperature and rainfall fluctuations (1994-2006), and a more recent warmer and wetter phase (2007-2015). In the 1986-1993 period, the fluvial sediment fluxes reflected the stable trend exhibited by the climatic conditions. In the subsequent 1994-2006 period, the average temperature and precipitation were in line with that previously observed, although with higher interannual variability. Notwithstanding the climate forcing and the occurrence of high magnitude/low frequency floods that strongly influenced the source areas, between 1994 and 2006 the Rio Cordon basin showed relatively limited erosion activity. Hence, the climatic conditions and the landscape response can only partially explain the strong increase of sediment export recorded in the 1994

  2. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios

    2014-05-01

    Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com), and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

  3. Research on the induction motor current signature for centrifugal pump at cavitation condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yin Luo

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Cavitation is a major undesirable phenomenon for centrifugal pump because it can cause hydraulic performance deterioration, pump damage by pitting and material erosion, and structural vibration and noise. Cavitation can appear within the entire range of the operating conditions; therefore, it must be prevented by all means. Sensorless monitoring technology based on motor current signature analysis is non-intrusive and economic for monitoring motor-driven equipment. Thus, this technology is suitable for centrifugal pump systems. The motor current signature for centrifugal pump load at the cavitation condition is the basis of this technology. However, systematic research is lacking on sensorless monitoring technology based on motor current signature. As a result, the tentative exploration for motor current signature at cavitation load was conducted in this study. The results show that the stator current is still a sinusoidal alternating current strictly to the law of sine. Moreover, the root mean square of the current fluctuates because of different flow regimes in the cavitation progress and decreases because vapor density is smaller than water density when cavitation is fully formed. For the stator current spectrum, the noise level, noise distribution, rotation speed, and vane pass frequency components show features in the cavitation process. These indicator indexes change according to the stage of cavitation development. Thus, the motor current signature analysis is found to be a feasible and cost-effective method for the stages of cavitation condition.

  4. Rainfall and net infiltration probabilities for future climate conditions at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, A.; Childs, S.W.

    1993-01-01

    Performance assessment of repository integrity is a task rendered difficult because it requires predicting the future. This challenge has occupied many scientists who realize that the best assessments are required to maximize the probability of successful repository sitting and design. As part of a performance assessment effort directed by the EPRI, the authors have used probabilistic methods to assess the magnitude and timing of net infiltration at Yucca Mountain. A mathematical model for net infiltration previously published incorporated a probabilistic treatment of climate, surface hydrologic processes and a mathematical model of the infiltration process. In this paper, we present the details of the climatological analysis. The precipitation model is event-based, simulating characteristics of modern rainfall near Yucca Mountain, then extending the model to most likely values for different degrees of pluvial climates. Next the precipitation event model is fed into a process-based infiltration model that considers spatial variability in parameters relevant to net infiltration of Yucca Mountain. The model predicts that average annual net infiltration at Yucca Mountain will range from a mean of about 1 mm under present climatic conditions to a mean of at least 2.4 mm under full glacial (pluvial) conditions. Considerable variations about these means are expected to occur from year-to-year

  5. Impact of climate change on commercial sector air conditioning energy consumption in subtropical Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam, Tony N.T.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Wong, S.L.; Lam, Joseph C.

    2010-01-01

    Past and future trend of electricity use for air conditioning in the entire commercial sector in subtropical climates using 1979-2008 measured meteorological data as well as predictions for 2009-2100 from a general circulation model (MIROC3.2-H) was investigated. Air conditioning consumption showed an increasing trend over the past 30 years from 1979 to 2008. Principal component analysis (PCA) of measured and predicted monthly mean dry-bulb temperature, wet-bulb temperature and global solar radiation was conducted to determine a new climatic index Z for 1979-2008 and future 92 years (2009-2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). Through regression analysis, electricity use in air conditioning for the 92-year period was estimated. For low forcing, average consumption in 2009-2038, 2039-2068 and 2069-2100 would be, respectively, 5.7%, 12.8% and 18.4% more than the 1979-2008 average, with a mean 12.5% increase for the entire 92-year period. Medium forcing showed a similar increasing trend, but 1-4% more. Standard deviations of the monthly air conditioning consumption were found to be smaller suggesting possible reduction in seasonal variations in future years.

  6. Peculiarities on voltage - current characteristics of HTS tapes at overloading conditions cooled by liquid nitrogen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vysotsky, V S; Fetisov, S S; Sytnikov, V E

    2008-01-01

    Electro - technical devices are considered as the most prospective use for high temperature superconductors. For such devices the overload currents due to faults in grids are the operational reality. In these cases the fault currents may forcibly go to superconductors being sometimes dozens times more than the critical currents of HTS. Overloads are the working modes for fault current limiters also. To understand the behavior of HTS devices at overloads it is important to study voltage-current characteristics (VCC) of basic HTS tapes in real cooling conditions. The knowledge of VCC permits to model and to simulate properly HTS devices behavior at overloads. We performed the study of VCC of several HTS tapes at currents several times more than their critical ones. Both, 1-G and 2-G tapes were tested. There were found peculiarities or 'spikes' on VCC at rising currents that vanished at decaying currents. It was shown that such peculiarities are determined by the change of cooling conditions from the convective heat exchange to the nucleate boiling. Nucleate boiling activation and development times were determined. Their dependencies on heat release were measured. The data obtained can be used in simulation of heating of real superconducting devices at overload conditions

  7. Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

  8. The Effect of Body Weight on Heat Strain Indices in Hot and Dry Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Habibi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Being overweight is a characteristic that may influence a person’s heat exchange. Objectives The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of body weight on heat strain indices in hot and dry climatic conditions. Materials and Methods This study was completed with a sample of 30 participants with normal weights, as well as 25 participants who were overweight. The participants were physically inactive for a period of 120 minutes in a climatic chamber with hot and dry conditions (22 - 32°C and with 40% relative humidity (RH.The physiological strain index (PSI and heat strain score index (HSSI questionnaires were used. Simultaneous measurements were completed during heat exposure for periods of five minutes. The resting periods acted as the initial measurements for 15 minutes. Results In both groups, oral temperature, heart rate, and thermal perceptual responses increased during heat exposure. The means and standard deviations of heart rate and oral temperature were gathered when participants were in hot and dry climatic conditions and were not physically active. The heart rates and oral temperatures were 79.21 ± 5.93 bpm and 36.70 ± 0.45°C, respectively, for those with normal weights. For overweight individuals, the measurements for heart rate and oral temperature reached 82.21 ± 8.9 bpm and 37.84 ± 0.37°C, respectively. Conclusions The results showed that, compared to participants with normal weights, physiological and thermal perceptual responses were higher in overweight participants. Therefore, overweight individuals should avoid hot/dry weather conditions to decrease the amount of heat strain.

  9. Analysis and evaluation of the impact of climatic conditions on the photovoltaic modules performance in the desert environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouraiou, Ahmed; Hamouda, Messaoud; Chaker, Abdelkader; Mostefaoui, Mohammed; Lachtar, Salah; Sadok, Mohammed; Boutasseta, Nadir; Othmani, Mourad; Issam, Attoui

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Modeling and simulation of PV Module based on one and two diode model. • Power loss due to partial shading and dust accumulation were investigated. • Effect of variation of irradiation and temperature on PV performance parameters was examined. • Performance degradation of PV modules was evaluated using I–V and P–V curves. • Mean annual maximum power degradation rate due to delamination and discoloration equal to 1.89%/year. - Abstract: The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of climatic conditions on the performance of photovoltaic modules installed in the desert region in south of Algeria. Firstly, the performance of ISOFOTON 100 module under daily weather conditions is evaluated. Next, the effects of partial shading and accumulation of sand dust for a period of two months on power loss and the current–voltage characteristics of photovoltaic modules are examined. Finally, the visual inspection of the degradation of the UDTS 50 modules such as discoloration of encapsulant and delamination show the influence of high temperature and the other climatic factors in the Saharan environment after a long time exposure of more than 10 years observed in the field at the Unit of Research in Renewable energy URERMS Adrar. The performance degradation is also assessed using (I–V and P–V) curves normalized at STC condition compared with the nominal STC data given by the manufacturer. The experimental results show that the performance parameters such as maximum output current (I_m_a_x), maximum output voltage (V_m_a_x), maximum power output (P_m_a_x), open-circuit voltage (V_o_c), short-circuit current (I_s_c) and fill factor (FF) of UDTS 50 modules are degraded after these years of exposition.

  10. Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kageyama

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Fresh water hosing simulations, in which a fresh water flux is imposed in the North Atlantic to force fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, have been routinely performed, first to study the climatic signature of different states of this circulation, then, under present or future conditions, to investigate the potential impact of a partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The most compelling examples of climatic changes potentially related to AMOC abrupt variations, however, are found in high resolution palaeo-records from around the globe for the last glacial period. To study those more specifically, more and more fresh water hosing experiments have been performed under glacial conditions in the recent years. Here we compare an ensemble constituted by 11 such simulations run with 6 different climate models. All simulations follow a slightly different design, but are sufficiently close in their design to be compared. They all study the impact of a fresh water hosing imposed in the extra-tropical North Atlantic. Common features in the model responses to hosing are the cooling over the North Atlantic, extending along the sub-tropical gyre in the tropical North Atlantic, the southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ and the weakening of the African and Indian monsoons. On the other hand, the expression of the bipolar see-saw, i.e., warming in the Southern Hemisphere, differs from model to model, with some restricting it to the South Atlantic and specific regions of the southern ocean while others simulate a widespread southern ocean warming. The relationships between the features common to most models, i.e., climate changes over the north and tropical Atlantic, African and Asian monsoon regions, are further quantified. These suggest a tight correlation between the temperature and precipitation changes over the extra-tropical North Atlantic, but different pathways for the teleconnections between the AMOC/North Atlantic region

  11. Effects of climatic conditions and soil properties on Cabernet Sauvignon berry growth and anthocyanin profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Guo; He, Yan-Nan; Yue, Tai-Xin; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Zhen-Wen

    2014-09-02

    Climatic conditions and soil type have significant influence on grape ripening and wine quality. The reported study was conducted in two "Cabernet Sauvignon (Vitis vinifera L.V)" vineyards located in Xinjiang, a semiarid wine-producing region of China during two vintages (2011 and 2012). The results indicate that soil and climate affected berry growth and anthocyanin profiles. These two localities were within a distance of 5 km from each other and had soils of different physical and chemical composition. For each vineyard, the differences of anthocyanin concentrations, and parameters concerning berry growth and composition between the two years could be explained by different climatic conditions. Soil effect was studied by investigation of differences in berry composition and anthocyanin profiles between the two vineyards in the same year, which could be explained mainly by the different soil properties, vine water and nitrogen status. Specifically, the soils with less water and organic matter produced looser clusters, heavier berry skins and higher TSS, which contributed to the excellent performance of grapes. Compared with 2011, the increases in anthocyanin concentrations for each vineyard in 2012 could be attributed to smaller number of extreme temperature (>35 °C) days and rainfall, lower vine water status and N level. The explanation for higher anthocyanin concentrations in grape skins from the soils with less water and organic matter could be the vine status differences, lighter berry weight and heavier skin weight at harvest. In particular, grapes from the soils with less water and organic matter had higher levels of 3'5'-substituded, O-methylated and acylated anthocyanins, which represented a positive characteristic conferring more stable pigmentation to the corresponding wine in the future. The present work clarifies the effects of climate and soil on berry growth and anthocyanin profiles, thus providing guidance for production of high-quality wine grapes

  12. Effects of Climatic Conditions and Soil Properties on Cabernet Sauvignon Berry Growth and Anthocyanin Profiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Cheng

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Climatic conditions and soil type have significant influence on grape ripening and wine quality. The reported study was conducted in two “Cabernet Sauvignon (Vitis vinifera L.V” vineyards located in Xinjiang, a semiarid wine-producing region of China during two vintages (2011 and 2012. The results indicate that soil and climate affected berry growth and anthocyanin profiles. These two localities were within a distance of 5 km from each other and had soils of different physical and chemical composition. For each vineyard, the differences of anthocyanin concentrations, and parameters concerning berry growth and composition between the two years could be explained by different climatic conditions. Soil effect was studied by investigation of differences in berry composition and anthocyanin profiles between the two vineyards in the same year, which could be explained mainly by the different soil properties, vine water and nitrogen status. Specifically, the soils with less water and organic matter produced looser clusters, heavier berry skins and higher TSS, which contributed to the excellent performance of grapes. Compared with 2011, the increases in anthocyanin concentrations for each vineyard in 2012 could be attributed to smaller number of extreme temperature (>35 °C days and rainfall, lower vine water status and N level. The explanation for higher anthocyanin concentrations in grape skins from the soils with less water and organic matter could be the vine status differences, lighter berry weight and heavier skin weight at harvest. In particular, grapes from the soils with less water and organic matter had higher levels of 3′5′-substituded, O-methylated and acylated anthocyanins, which represented a positive characteristic conferring more stable pigmentation to the corresponding wine in the future. The present work clarifies the effects of climate and soil on berry growth and anthocyanin profiles, thus providing guidance for production of

  13. A statistical adjustment approach for climate projections of snow conditions in mountain regions using energy balance land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

    2017-04-01

    Projections of future climate change have been increasingly called for lately, as the reality of climate change has been gradually accepted and societies and governments have started to plan upcoming mitigation and adaptation policies. In mountain regions such as the Alps or the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenue, particular attention is brought to current and future snow availability. The question of the vulnerability of mountain ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as avalanches and debris-flows is also under consideration. In order to generate projections of snow conditions, however, downscaling global climate models (GCMs) by using regional climate models (RCMs) is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. In particular, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Simulations from GCMs and RCMs moreover suffer from biases compared to local observations, due to their rather coarse spatial and altitudinal resolution, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted using empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction methods, before they can be used to drive specific models such as energy balance land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees and the French Alps for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. We first introduce a thorough evaluation of the method using using model runs from the ALADIN RCM driven by a global reanalysis over the

  14. Current and future assessments of soil erosion by water on the Tibetan Plateau based on RUSLE and CMIP5 climate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Hongfen; Liang, Zongzheng; Chen, Songchao; Liu, Yong; Viscarra Rossel, Raphael A; Chappell, Adrian; Yu, Wu; Shi, Zhou

    2018-04-18

    Soil erosion by water is accelerated by a warming climate and negatively impacts water security and ecological conservation. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced warming at a rate approximately twice that observed globally, and heavy precipitation events lead to an increased risk of erosion. In this study, we assessed current erosion on the TP and predicted potential soil erosion by water in 2050. The study was conducted in three steps. During the first step, we used the Revised Universal Soil Equation (RUSLE), publicly available data, and the most recent earth observations to derive estimates of annual erosion from 2002 to 2016 on the TP at 1-km resolution. During the second step, we used a multiple linear regression (MLR) model and a set of climatic covariates to predict rainfall erosivity on the TP in 2050. The MLR was used to establish the relationship between current rainfall erosivity data and a set of current climatic and other covariates. The coefficients of the MLR were generalised with climate covariates for 2050 derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models to estimate rainfall erosivity in 2050. During the third step, soil erosion by water in 2050 was predicted using rainfall erosivity in 2050 and other erosion factors. The results show that the mean annual soil erosion rate on the TP under current conditions is 2.76tha -1 y -1 , which is equivalent to an annual soil loss of 559.59×10 6 t. Our 2050 projections suggested that erosion on the TP will increase to 3.17tha -1 y -1 and 3.91tha -1 y -1 under conditions represented by RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The current assessment and future prediction of soil erosion by water on the TP should be valuable for environment protection and soil conservation in this unique region and elsewhere. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. New digital reference current generation for shunt active power filter under distorted voltage conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abdusalam, Mohamed; Karimi, Shahram; Saadate, Shahrokh [Groupe de Recherche en Electrotechnique et Electronique de Nancy (GREEN), CNRS UMR 7037 (France); Poure, Philippe [Laboratoire d' Instrumentation Electronique de Nancy (LIEN), EA 3440, Universite Henri Poincare - Nancy Universite, B.P. 239, 54506 Vandoeuvre les Nancy Cedex (France)

    2009-05-15

    In this paper, a new reference current computation method suitable for shunt active power filter control under distorted voltage conditions is proposed. The active power filter control is based on the use of self-tuning filters (STF) for the reference current generation and on a modulated hysteresis current controller. This active filter is intended for harmonic compensation of a diode rectifier feeding a RL load under distorted voltage conditions. The study of the active filter control is divided in two parts. The first one deals with the harmonic isolator which generates the harmonic reference currents and is experimentally implemented in a DS1104 card of a DSPACE prototyping system. The second part focuses on the generation of the switching pattern of the inverter by using a modulated hysteresis current controller, implemented in an analogue card. The use of STF instead of classical extraction filters allows extracting directly the voltage and current fundamental components in the {alpha}-{beta} axis without phase locked loop (PLL). The performances are good even under distorted voltage conditions. First, the effectiveness of the new proposed method is mathematically studied and verified by computer simulation. Then, experimental results are presented using a DSPACE system associated with the analogue current controller for a real shunt active power filter. (author)

  16. Behavior of crushed rock aggregates used in road construction exposed to cold climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Elena; Pérez Fortes, Ana Patricia; Anastasio, Sara; Willy Danielsen, Svein

    2016-04-01

    Presently, about 90% of the aggregate production in Europe comes from naturally occurring resources: quarries and pits. Due to the increased demand for sand and gravel for construction purposes, not only in building but also in road construction, the last decade has seen a significant trend towards the use of more crushed rock aggregates. This resource has been more and more preferred to sand and gravel thanks to the significant technological development of its process and use phase. The performance of the aggregates is generally evaluated depending on three main factors: the geological origin (mineral composition, texture, structure, degree of weathering), the aggregate processing (crushing, sieving, washing, storing) and the user technology for a specific area of use (e.g. road construction, asphalt binders). Nevertheless climatic conditions should carefully be taken into account in application such as road construction. Large temperature gradients and high levels of humidity are known to significantly affect the performance of the material. Although the problem is, at least in the asphalt field, considered mostly from the binder point of view, this article aims to investigate the effect of aggregate properties on road performance in cold climatic conditions. Two different climatic areas will be taken into account: Norway and Spain. While both these countries are listed among the main European producers of aggregates, they represent significantly different climatic regions. While Norwegian weather is characterized by humid cold winters and relatively mild summers, Spain has temperate climate with cold regions in mountainous and internal areas. Both countries have been significantly affected by climate change with increasing temperature variations and instability. At the same time, similar winter maintenance measures, including the use of a considerable amount of solid and liquid chemicals to avoid ice formation (e.g. NaCl) and/or to provide better friction, are

  17. A Database for Climatic Conditions around Europe for Promoting GSHP Solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele De Carli

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Weather plays an important role for energy uses in buildings. For this reason, it is required to define the proper boundary conditions in terms of the different parameters affecting energy and comfort in buildings. They are also the basis for determining the ground temperature in different locations, as well as for determining the potential for using geothermal energy. This paper presents a database for climates in Europe that has been used in a freeware tool developed as part of the H2020 research project named “Cheap-GSHPs”. The standard Köppen-Geiger climate classification has been matched with the weather data provided by the ENERGYPLUS and METEONORM software database. The Test Reference Years of more than 300 locations have been considered. These locations have been labelled according to the degree-days for heating and cooling, as well as by the Köppen-Geiger scale. A comprehensive data set of weather conditions in Europe has been created and used as input for a GSHP sizing software, helping the user in selecting the weather conditions closest to the location of interest. The proposed method is based on lapse rates and has been tested at two locations in Switzerland and Ireland. It has been demonstrated as quite valid for the project purposes, considering the spatial distribution and density of available data and the lower computing load, in particular for locations where altitude is the main factor controlling on the temperature variations.

  18. Variation of moisture content of some varnished woods in indoor climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kemal Üçüncü

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, moisture change of varnished wood of black poplar (Populus nigra and yellow pine (Pinus silvestris L. used in indoor climate conditions with central heating in Trabzon (Turkey were investigated. 300 mm length wood specimens, with cross section of 12.5 mm in tangential and in radial and with the square sections of 25mm and 50 mm, were obtained from two species grown in Kanuni Campus of the Karadeniz Technical University. In this research, un-varnished wood samples were also used for reference. The wood moisture content was determined by the weighing method, the wood equilibrium moisture content by the Hailwood-Horrobin equation, and the relative humidity in the indoor climatic conditions by humid air thermodynamic principles. As a result; it was observed that the moisture content of varnished wood samples has a strong relationship with equilibrium moisture content, temperature and relative humidity. It was found that the moisture content of varnished woods was higher than the moisture content of un-varnished woods in the same climatic conditions. It was observed that the difference between the monthly average moisture content was lower in varnished woods in proportion to un-varnished woods. According to these results, it can be indicated that it would be more appropriate to select higher moisture content in the drying of wood than the equilibrium moisture content. Such an application would also reduce drying costs. Further, it can be recommended to use varnished wood in various applications because the low change range of average moisture content can affect the swelling or shrinking of wood.

  19. Catchment-scale contaminant transport under changing hydro-climatic conditions in the Aral Sea Drainage Basin, Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarsjö, Jerker; Törnqvist, Rebecka; Su, Ye

    2013-04-01

    Dependable projections of future water availability and quality are essential in the management of water resources. Changes in land use, water use and climate can have large impacts on water and contaminant flows across extensive catchments that may contain different administrative regions where shared water resources must be managed. We consider the extensive Aral Sea Drainage Basin (ASDB) and the Amu Darya River Delta in Central Asia, which are currently under severe water stress due to large-scale irrigation expansion. We interpret data on hydro-climatic conditions, main contaminants of surface water and shallow groundwater systems, location of rivers and canal networks, and groundwater flow directions. The data are used together with climate change projections from general circulation models (GCMs) as input to hydrological and (advective) transport modelling. The main goal is to assess how regional transport pathways and travel times have changed, and are likely to change further, in response to past and projected future hydro-climatic changes. More specifically, the hydrological modelling was based on temperature and precipitation change (ΔT and ΔP) results from 65 GCM projections of 21st century conditions (specifically considering time periods around 2025, 2050, and 2100), relative to reference conditions around 1975 (taken from the reference period 1961-1990). Whereas ΔT is robustly projected to increase with time, the projected magnitude of ΔP differs more among projections for the distant future (2100) than for the near future (2025), with uncertainty remaining even about the direction of change (i.e., positive or negative ΔP). However, mainly due to the projected temperature-driven increases in evapotranspiration, ensemble average results show that the Amu Darya river discharge Q in the downstream ASDB is likely to show a decreasing trend throughout the 21st century. Notably, projected changes in the upstream, mountainous regions have a relatively

  20. A one-loop study of matching conditions for static-light flavor currents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hesse, Dirk [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Inst. fuer Computing NIC; Parma Univ. (Italy); Sommer, Rainer [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Inst. fuer Computing NIC; Collaboration: ALPHA Collaboration

    2012-11-15

    Heavy Quark Effective Theory (HQET) computations of semi-leptonic decays, e.g. B{yields}{pi}l{nu}, require the knowledge of the parameters in the effective theory for all components of the heavy-light flavor currents. So far non-perturbative matching conditions have been employed only for the time component of the axial current. Here we perform a check of matching conditions for the time component of the vector current and the spatial component of the axial vector current up to one-loop order of perturbation theory and to lowest order of the 1/m-expansion. We find that the proposed observables have small higher order terms in the 1/m-series and are thus excellent candidates for a non-perturbative matching procedure.

  1. The importance of moisture buffering for indoor climate and energy conditions of buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rode, Carsten; Grau, Karl

    2007-01-01

    A new Nordic test method specifies a test protocol for determination of the so-called Moisture Buffer Value (MBV) of building materials. But how important is moisture buffering to determine the indoor humidity condition of buildings? The paper will present the new MBV-definition. Although...... buffering to save energy by reducing the requirement for ventilation in periods, and still maintain the same quality of the indoor climate? The paper will outline some possibilities for analytical/numerical calculations, and will answer some of the posed questions on the probable benefit of taking moisture...

  2. Solar water heaters: possibilities of using in the climatic conditions of the Russia medium area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popel', O.S.; Frid, S.E.

    2001-01-01

    On the basis of mathematical simulation of the simplest solar water heating facility using up-to-date software and data of typical meteorological year it was shown that under the real climatic conditions peculiar to Russia central region it is appropriate to use seasonal solar water heaters operating from March up to September. It is shown that to promote solar water heaters in the Russian market one should elaborate engineering approaches and should introduce new materials ensuring reduction of cost of solar water heaters with the availability of high quality and durability [ru

  3. Phytoremdiation Species And Their Modification Under By Weed Varying Climatic Condition A Changing Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Singh

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The major reasons for environmental contamination are population explosion increase in industrial and other urban activities. One of the consequent effect of these activities is heavy metal pollution. It is one of the serious issue to be discussed by the scientists and academicians that how to solve this problem to protect the environment. As heavy metals are non-biodegradable so they require effective cleanup technology. Most of the traditional methods such as excavation solidification and burial are very costly or they simply involve the isolation of the metals from contaminated sites. Among different technologies phytoremediation is best approach for removing metal contamination from environment. It involves plants to remove detoxify or immobilize metals from environment. Weed plants are found to be play very important role in metal remediation. They get affected by climatic variation which is also a consequent effect of environmental pollution. The physiology of plants as well as physiochemical properties of soil gets affected by varying climatic condition. Therefore the present review gives the information on metal remediation processes and how these process particularly phytoremediation by weed plants get affected by climatic changes.

  4. Neutron transport assembly calculation with non-zero net current boundary condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, Chang Keun

    1993-02-01

    Fuel assembly calculation for the homogenized group constants is one of the most important parts in the reactor core analysis. The homogenized group constants of one a quarter assembly are usually generated for the nodal calculation of the reactor core. In the current nodal calculation, one or a quarter of the fuel assembly corresponds to a unit node. The homogenized group constant calculation for a fuel assembly proceeds through cell spectrum calculations, group condensation and cell homogenization calculations, two dimensional fuel assembly calculation, and then depletion calculations of fuel rods. To obtain the assembly wise homogenized group constants, the two dimensional transport calculation is usually performed. Most codes for the assembly wise homogenized group constants employ a zero net current boundary condition. CASMO-3 is such a code that is in wide use. The zero net current boundary condition is plausible and valid in an infinite reactor composed of the same kind of assemblies. However, the reactor is finite and the core is constructed by different kinds of assemblies. Hence, the assumption of the zero net current boundary condition is not valid in the actual reactor. The objective of this study is to develop a homogenization methodology that can treat any actual boundary condition, i.e. non-zero net current boundary condition. In order to treat the non-zero net current boundary condition, we modify CASMO-3. For the two-dimensional treatment in CASMO-3, a multigroup integral transport routine based on the method of transmission probability is used. The code performs assembly calculation with zero net current boundary condition. CASMO-3 is modified to consider the inhomogeneous source at the assembly boundary surface due to the non-zero net current. The modified version of CASMO-3 is called CASMO-3M. CASMO-3M is applied to several benchmark problems. In order to obtain the inhomogeneous source, the global calculation is performed. The local calculation

  5. Unified Subharmonic Oscillation Conditions for Peak or Average Current Mode Control

    OpenAIRE

    Fang, Chung-Chieh

    2013-01-01

    This paper is an extension of the author's recent research in which only buck converters were analyzed. Similar analysis can be equally applied to other types of converters. In this paper, a unified model is proposed for buck, boost, and buck-boost converters under peak or average current mode control to predict the occurrence of subharmonic oscillation. Based on the unified model, the associated stability conditions are derived in closed forms. The same stability condition can be applied to ...

  6. Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, D.; Person, M.; Daannen, R.; Locke, S.; Dahlstrom, D.; Zabielski, V.; Winter, T.C.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Wright, H.; Ito, E.; Nieber, J.L.; Gutowski, W.J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge

  7. Performance evaluation of a solar adsorption chiller under different climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alahmer, Ali; Wang, Xiaolin; Al-Rbaihat, Raed; Amanul Alam, K.C.; Saha, B.B.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A solar adsorption cooling system was studied at different climatic conditions. • Effect of hot water temperature and flow rate on system performance was evaluated. • Solar collector area and tilting angle largely affected the system performance. • Economics of the solar adsorption cooling was analysed at real weather conditions. • Adsorption cooling could be potentially applied in cities with good solar radiation. - Abstract: Performance of an adsorption cooling system driven by solar thermal energy was studied under different climatic conditions. The effects of solar collector area, collector slope, hot water temperature and flow rate on the system performance were investigated using the real-time weather data of two cities: Perth, Australia (a representative city in the southern hemisphere) and Amman, Jordan (a representative city in the northern hemisphere). The simulation results showed that the two cities had similar solar radiation during the summer period and that the solar adsorption chiller could reliably provide cooling at a reasonably high system COP. For residential cooling with a total CPC (Compound Parabolic Collector) solar collector area of 36.22 m"2, the average system COP was 0.491 for Perth weather conditions and 0.467 for Amman weather conditions, respectively while the cooling capacity was 10.3 kW for Perth and 8.46 kW for Amman, respectively at peak times. Optimum performance occurred when the system run with the CPC collector slope of around 30°, the solar water storage tank volume of 1.4 m"3, inlet hot water temperature of 80 °C, and a hot water flow rate of 0.33 kg/s. An economic analysis was further investigated and the results showed that the solar driven adsorption cooling system could reduce the electricity consumption for Perth and Amman cities by 34% and 28%, respectively in comparison to a conventional vapour compression cooling system.

  8. Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Petra M; Coffman, Reid

    2015-04-15

    Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April-October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating

  9. Thermal comfort in air-conditioned mosques in the dry desert climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-ajmi, Farraj F. [Department of Civil Engineering, College of Technological Studies, Shuwaikh 70654 (Kuwait)

    2010-11-15

    In Kuwait, as in most countries with a typical dry desert climate, the summer season is long with a mean daily maximum temperature of 45 C. Centralized air-conditioning, which is generally deployed from the beginning of April to the end of October, can have tremendous impact on the amount of electrical energy utilized to mechanically control the internal environment in mosque buildings. The indoor air temperature settings for all types of air-conditioned buildings and mosque buildings in particular, are often calculated based on the analytical model of ASHRAE 55-2004 and ISO 7730. However, a field study was conducted in six air-conditioned mosque buildings during the summers of 2007 to investigate indoor climate and prayers thermal comfort in state of Kuwait. The paper presents statistical data about the indoor environmental conditions in Kuwait mosque buildings, together with an analysis of prayer thermal comfort sensations for a total of 140 subjects providing 140 sets of physical measurements and subjective questionnaires were used to collect data. Results show that the neutral temperature (T{sub n}) of the prayers is found to be 26.1 C, while that for PMV is 23.3 C. Discrepancy of these values is in fact about 2.8 C higher than those predicted by PMV model. Therefore, thermal comfort temperature in Kuwait cannot directly correlate with ISO 7730 and ASHRAE 55-2004 standards. Findings from this study should be considered when designing air conditioning for mosque buildings. This knowledge can contribute towards the development of future energy-related design codes for Kuwait. (author)

  10. Out-patient management and non-attendance in the current economic climate. How best to manage our resources?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hennessy, D

    2010-03-01

    Outpatient non-attendance is a considerable source of inefficiency in the health service, wasting time, resources and potentially lengthening waiting lists, Given the current economic climate, methods need to be employed to reduce non-attendance. The aim was to analyse outpatient non-attendance and determine what factors influence attendance. A prospective audit over a two-month period to a tertiary-referral Urological service was performed to determine the clinical and demographic profile of non-attendees. Of 737 appointments, 148 (20%) patients did not attend (DNA). A benign urological condition was evident in 116 cases (78%). This group of patients also accounted for the majority of new patients not attending 40\\/47, returning patients not attending 101\\/148 and the majority of patients who missed multiple appointments 43\\/49. Patients with benign conditions make up the majority of clinic non-attendance. Consideration may be given to discharging such patients back to their general practitioner after one unexplained non-attendance until other alternatives of follow up are available.

  11. Climate and Health Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccato, P.

    2015-12-01

    The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases ( malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities; ministries of health; the WMO Global Framework for Climate and Services; and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above with examples in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Malawi.

  12. Enhanced Decoupled Double Synchronous Reference Frame Current Controller for Unbalanced Grid-Voltage Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reyes, M.; Rodriguez, Pedro; Vazquez, S.

    2012-01-01

    . In these codes, the injection of positive- and negative-sequence current components becomes necessary for fulfilling, among others, the low-voltage ride-through requirements during balanced and unbalanced grid faults. However, the performance of classical dq current controllers, applied to power converters......, under unbalanced grid-voltage conditions is highly deficient, due to the unavoidable appearance of current oscillations. This paper analyzes the performance of the double synchronous reference frame controller and improves its structure by adding a decoupling network for estimating and compensating...

  13. Future climate impact on unfavorable meteorological conditions for the dispersion of air pollution in Brussels

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Troch, Rozemien; Berckmans, Julie; Giot, Olivier; Hamdi, Rafiq; Termonia, Piet

    2015-04-01

    Belgium is one of the several countries in Europe where air quality levels of different pollutants such as ozone, NOx, and Particulate Matter (PM) still exceed the prescribed European norms multiple times a year (EEA, 2014). These pollution peaks have a great impact on health and environment, in particular in large cities and urban environments. It is well known that observed concentrations of air pollutants are strongly influenced by emissions and meteorological conditions and therefore is sensitive to climate change. As the effects of global climate change are increasingly felt in Belgium, policy makers express growing interest in quantifying its effect on air pollution and the effort required to meet the air quality targets in the next years and decennia (Lauwaet et al., 2014). In this study, two different stability indices are calculated for a 9-year period using present (1991-1999) and future (2047-2055) climate data that has been obtained from a dynamically downscaling of Global Climate Model data from the Arpège model using the ALARO model at 4 km spatial resolution. The ALARO model is described in detail in previous validation studies from De Troch et al. (2013) and Hamdi et al. (2013). The first index gives a measure of the horizontal and vertical transport of nonreactive pollutants in stable atmospheric conditions and has been proposed and tested by Termonia and Quinet (2004). It gives a characteristic length scale l which is the ratio of the mean horizontal wind speed and the Brunt-Väisälä frequency. In this way low values for l in the lower part of the boundary layer during an extended time span of 12 hours, correspond to calm situations and a stable atmosphere and thus indicate unfavorable conditions for the dispersion of air pollution. This transport index is similar to an index used in an old Pasquill-type scheme but is more convenient to use to detect the strongest pollution peaks. The well known Pasquill classes are also calculated in order to

  14. Maximum power point tracking for PV systems under partial shading conditions using current sweeping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsang, K.M.; Chan, W.L.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel approach for tracking the maximum power point of photovoltaic systems. • Able to handle both the uniform insolation and partial shading conditions. • Maximum power point tracking based on current sweeping. - Abstract: Partial shading on photovoltaic (PV) arrays causes multiple peaks on the output power–voltage characteristic curve and local searching technique such as perturb and observe (P&O) method could easily fail in searching for the global maximum. Moreover, existing global searching techniques are still not very satisfactory in terms of speed and implementation complexity. In this paper, a fast global maximum power point (MPPT) tracking method which is using current sweeping for photovoltaic arrays under partial shading conditions is proposed. Unlike conventional approach, the proposed method is current based rather than voltage based. The initial maximum power point will be derived based on a current sweeping test and the maximum power point can be enhanced by a finer local search. The speed of the global search is mainly governed by the apparent time constant of the PV array and the generation of a fast current sweeping test. The fast current sweeping test can easily be realized by a DC/DC boost converter with a very fast current control loop. Experimental results are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed global searching scheme

  15. EXTREME WINTERS IN XX–XXI CENTURIES AS INDICATORS OF SNOWINESS AND AVALANCHE HAZARD IN THE PAST AND EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Oleynikov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, due to the global climate change and increasing frequency of weather events focus is on prediction of climate extremes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies can cause long-term paralysis of social and economic infrastructure of the major mountain regions and even individual states. In winter periods, these anomalies are associated with prolonged heavy snowfalls and associated with them catastrophic avalanches which cause significant social and economic damage. The climate system maintains a certain momentum during periods of adjustment and transition to other conditions in the ratio of heat and moisture and contains a climate «signal» of the climates of the past and the future. In our view seasonal and yearly extremes perform the role of these indicators, study of which enables for a deeper understanding and appreciation of the real situation of the climate periods related to the modern ones. The paper provides an overview of the criteria for selection of extreme winters. Identification of extremely cold winters during the period of instrumental observation and assessment of their snowiness and avalanche activity done for the Elbrus region, which is a model site for study of the avalanche regime in the Central Caucasus. The studies aim to identify the extreme winters in the Greater Caucasus, assess their frequency of occurrence, characterize the scale and intensity of the avalanche formation. The data obtained can be used to identify winter-analogues in the reconstruction and long-term forecast of avalanches. 

  16. Comparing modeled and observed changes in mineral dust transport and deposition to Antarctica between the Last Glacial Maximum and current climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albani, Samuel [University of Siena, Graduate School in Polar Sciences, Siena (Italy); University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Environmental Sciences, Milano (Italy); Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Mahowald, Natalie M. [Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Delmonte, Barbara; Maggi, Valter [University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Environmental Sciences, Milano (Italy); Winckler, Gisela [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, NY (United States)

    2012-05-15

    Mineral dust aerosols represent an active component of the Earth's climate system, by interacting with radiation directly, and by modifying clouds and biogeochemistry. Mineral dust from polar ice cores over the last million years can be used as paleoclimate proxy, and provide unique information about climate variability, as changes in dust deposition at the core sites can be due to changes in sources, transport and/or deposition locally. Here we present results from a study based on climate model simulations using the Community Climate System Model. The focus of this work is to analyze simulated differences in the dust concentration, size distribution and sources in current climate conditions and during the Last Glacial Maximum at specific ice core locations in Antarctica, and compare with available paleodata. Model results suggest that South America is the most important source for dust deposited in Antarctica in current climate, but Australia is also a major contributor and there is spatial variability in the relative importance of the major dust sources. During the Last Glacial Maximum the dominant source in the model was South America, because of the increased activity of glaciogenic dust sources in Southern Patagonia-Tierra del Fuego and the Southernmost Pampas regions, as well as an increase in transport efficiency southward. Dust emitted from the Southern Hemisphere dust source areas usually follow zonal patterns, but southward flow towards Antarctica is located in specific areas characterized by southward displacement of air masses. Observations and model results consistently suggest a spatially variable shift in dust particle sizes. This is due to a combination of relatively reduced en route wet removal favouring a generalized shift towards smaller particles, and on the other hand to an enhanced relative contribution of dry coarse particle deposition in the Last Glacial Maximum. (orig.)

  17. Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blomberg, Erik J.; Sedinger, James S.; Gibson, Daniel; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits

  18. Modeling the water-energy nexus under changing energy market and climate conditions: a case study in the Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denaro, Simona; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Fumagalli, Elena; Giuliani, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Many river basins, especially in the Mediterranean region, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the environment, and the economy, thus emphasizing the need to rethink the way water resources are distributed, managed, and used at the regional and river basin scale. This paradigm shift will be essential to cope with the undergoing global change, characterized by growing water demands and by increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes. Most of the literature traditionally focused on predicting the impacts of climate change on water resources, while our understanding of the human footprint on the hydrological cycle is limited. For example, changes in the operation of the Alpine hydropower reservoirs induced by socio-economic drivers (e.g., development of renewable energy) have been already observed over the last few years and have produced relevant impacts on multiple water uses due to the altered distribution of water volumes in time and space. Modeling human decisions as well as the links between society and environmental systems becomes key to develop reliable projections on the co-evolution of the coupled human-water systems and deliver robust adaptation strategies. This work contributes a preliminary model-based analysis of the behaviour of hydropower operators under changing energy market and climate conditions. The proposed approach is developed for the San Giacomo-Cancano reservoir system located in the Lake Como catchment. The identification of the current operating policy is supported by input variable selection methods to select the most relevant hydrological and market based drivers to explain the observed release time series. The identified model is then simulated under a set of future scenarios, accounting for both climate and socio-economic change (e

  19. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.

    1992-01-01

    The scope of the research program and the continuation is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 x 3.0 x 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Co., Inc. (RBOSC) through a separate cooperative agreement with the University of Wyoming (UW) to carry out this study. Three of the lysimeters were established at the RBOSC Tract C-a in the Piceance Basin of Colorado. Two lysimeters were established in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL) at UW. The ESL was specifically designed and constructed so that a large range of climatic conditions could be physically applied to the processed oil shale which was filled in the lysimeter cells

  20. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, J.P.; Reeves, T.L.; Skinner, Q.D.; Hasfurther, V.

    1992-11-01

    The scope of the original research program and of its continuation is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large-scale testing sufficient to describe commercial-scale embankment behavior. The large-scale testing was accomplished by constructing five lysimeters, each 7.3x3.0x3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process (Schmalfield 1975). Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Co., Inc. to carry out this study. Three of the lysimeters were established at the RBOSC Tract C-a in the Piceance Basin near Rifle, Colorado. Two lysimeters were established in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL) at UW. The ESL was specifically designed and constructed so that a large range of climatic conditions could be physically applied to the processed oil shale which was placed in the lysimeter cells. This report discusses and summarizes results from scientific efforts conducted between October 1991 and September 1992 for Fiscal Year 1992

  1. Flight activity and responses to climatic conditions of two subspecies of Melipona marginata Lepeletier (Apidae, Meliponinae)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kleinert-Giovannini, A; Imperatriz-Fonseca, V L

    1986-01-01

    The flight activity of two colonies of M. m. marginata and six colonies of M. m. obscurior was studied in Sao Paulo, Brazil during three periods in 1981-1983. All colonies were hived except for one colony of M. m. obscurior which nested in a hollow tree. The two subspecies showed the same responses to the climatic factors analyzed. Flight activity was correlated positively with temperature and negatively with RH. In favorable conditions foraging took place throughout the day but both species were most active between 11 and 13 h. In the last observation period (October 1982-January 1983), when only two obscurior colonies were studied, flight activity was not correlated to RH, occurring even when RH was unfavorably high. This was a very rainy season, and it is suggested that the behavior of the bees indicates a flexible response to prevailing weather conditions.

  2. Determination of optimal irrigation rates of agricultural crops under consideration of soil properties and climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irakli Kruashvili

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In conditions of increasing water shortage, further development of irrigated agriculture production is impossible without improving the methods of cultivation of agricultural crops, primarily irrigation technology. In 2015 the experiment have been conducted on the territory of irrigation farming area of village Tamarisi (Marneuli Municipality, according to which comprehensive study of local climatic and soil conditions were conducted. Received data were used for computation crop water requirements for tomato and melon under the different irrigation treatments. Obtained results have shown the possibility of water use efficiency and obtaining sufficiently high yields of crops that participated in the experiment that became possible in a case of usage of drip irrigation technology in combination with plastic mulch.

  3. Seasonal variations of Saanen goat milk composition and the impact of climatic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kljajevic, Nemanja V; Tomasevic, Igor B; Miloradovic, Zorana N; Nedeljkovic, Aleksandar; Miocinovic, Jelena B; Jovanovic, Snezana T

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this research was to investigate the effect of climatic conditions and their impact on seasonal variations of physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk produced over a period of 4 years. Lactation period (early, mid and late) and year were considered as factors that influence physico-chemical composition of milk. Pearson's coefficient of correlation was calculated between the physico-chemical characteristics of milk (fat, proteins, lactose, non-fat dry matter, density, freezing point, pH, titrable acidity) and climatic condition parameters (air temperature, temperature humidity index-THI, solar radiation duration, relative humidity). Results showed that all physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk varied significantly throughout the lactation period and years. The decrease of fat, protein, non-fat dry matter and lactose content in goat milk during the mid-lactation period was more pronounced than was previously reported in the literature. The highest values for these characteristics were recorded in the late lactation period. Observed variations were explained by negative correlation between THI and the physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk. This indicated that Saanen goats were very prone to heat stress, which implied the decrease of physico-chemical characteristics during hot summers.

  4. Accounts from 19th-century Canadian Arctic explorers' logs reflect present climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Wood, Kevin

    The widely perceived failure of 19th-century expeditions to find and transit the Northwest Passage in the Canadian Arctic is often attributed to extraordinary cold climatic conditions associated with the “Little Ice Age” evident in proxy records. However, examination of 44 explorers' logs for the western Arctic from 1818 to 1910 reveals that climate indicators such as navigability, the distribution and thickness of annual sea ice, monthly surface air temperature, and the onset of melt and freeze were within the present range of variability.The quest for the Northwest Passage through the Canadian archipelago during the 19th century is frequently seen as a vain and tragic failure. Polar exploration during the Victorian era seems to us today to have been a costly exercise in heroic futility, which in many respects it was. This perspective has been reinforced since the 1970s, when paleoclimate reconstructions based on Arctic ice core stratigraphy appeared to confirm the existence of exceptionally cold conditions consistent with the period glaciologists had termed the “Little Ice Age” (Figure 1a), with temperatures more than one standard deviation colder relative to an early 20th-century mean [Koerner, 1977; Koerner and Fisher, 1990; Overpeck et al., 1998]. In recent years, the view of the Little Ice Age as a synchronous worldwide and prolonged cold epoch that ended with modern warming has been questioned [Bradley and Jones, 1993; Jones and Briffa, 2001 ;Ogilvie, 2001].

  5. Critical condition for current-driven instability excited in turbulent heating of TRIAM-1 tokamak plasma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakamura, Y; Watanabe, T; Nagao, A; Nakamura, K; Kikuchi, M; Aoki, T; Hiraki, N; Itoh, S [Kyushu Univ., Fukuoka (Japan). Research Inst. for Applied Mechanics; Mitarai, O

    1982-02-01

    Critical condition for current-driven instability excited in turbulently heated TRIAM-1 tokamak plasma is investigated experimentally. Resistive hump in loop voltage, plasma density fluctuation and rapid increase of electron temperature in a skin layer are simultaneously observed at the time when the electron drift velocity amounts to the critical drift velocity for low-frequency ion acoustic instability.

  6. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions.

  7. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidstrand, Patrik; Follin, Sven; Zugec, Nada

    2010-12-01

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions

  8. Current and future climate- and air pollution-mediated impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; Wilkinson, Paul; Pattenden, Sam; Vieno, Massimo; Armstrong, Ben; Atkinson, Richard; Chalabi, Zaid; Kovats, Sari; Milojevic, Ai; Stevenson, David S

    2009-12-21

    We describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios. Mortality burdens attributable to heat and ozone exposure are estimated by combination of climate-chemistry modelling and epidemiological risk assessment. Weather forecasting models (WRF) are used to simulate the driving meteorology for the EMEP4UK chemistry transport model at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution across the UK; the coupled WRF-EMEP4UK model is used to simulate daily surface temperature and ozone concentrations for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006, and for future emission scenarios. The outputs of these models are combined with evidence on the ozone-mortality and heat-mortality relationships derived from epidemiological analyses (time series regressions) of daily mortality in 15 UK conurbations, 1993-2003, to quantify present-day health burdens. During the August 2003 heatwave period, elevated ozone concentrations > 200 microg m-3 were measured at sites in London and elsewhere. This and other ozone photochemical episodes cause breaches of the UK air quality objective for ozone. Simulations performed with WRF-EMEP4UK reproduce the August 2003 heatwave temperatures and ozone concentrations. There remains day-to-day variability in the high ozone concentrations during the heatwave period, which on some days may be explained by ozone import from the European continent.Preliminary calculations using extended time series of spatially-resolved WRF-EMEP4UK model output suggest that in the summers (May to September) of 2003, 2005 & 2006 over 6000 deaths were attributable to ozone and around 5000 to heat in England and Wales. The regional variation in these deaths appears greater for heat-related than for ozone-related burdens.Changes in UK health burdens due to a range of future emission scenarios will be quantified. These future emissions scenarios span a range of possible futures from assuming current air quality

  9. The potential impact of invasive woody oil plants on protected areas in China under future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Guanghui; Yang, Jun; Lu, Siran; Huang, Conghong; Jin, Jing; Jiang, Peng; Yan, Pengbo

    2018-01-18

    Biodiesel produced from woody oil plants is considered a green substitute for fossil fuels. However, a potential negative impact of growing woody oil plants on a large scale is the introduction of highly invasive species into susceptible regions. In this study, we examined the potential invasion risk of woody oil plants in China's protected areas under future climate conditions. We simulated the current and future potential distributions of three invasive woody oil plants, Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis, and Aleurites moluccana, under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) up to 2050 using species distribution models. Protected areas in China that will become susceptible to these species were then identified using a spatial overlay analysis. Our results showed that by 2050, 26 and 41 protected areas would be threatened by these invasive woody oil plants under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. A total of 10 unique forest ecosystems and 17 rare plant species could be potentially affected. We recommend that the invasive potential of woody oil plants be fully accounted for when developing forest-based biodiesel, especially around protected areas.

  10. Climate and Population Health Vulnerabilities to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience Under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccato, P.; McDonald, K. C.; Podest, E.; De La Torre Juarez, M.; Kruczkiewicz, A.; Lessel, J.; Jensen, K.; Thomson, M. C.

    2014-12-01

    The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities, ministries of health and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above.

  11. The role of lateral boundary conditions in simulations of mineral aerosols by a regional climate model of Southwest Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marcella, Marc Pace [Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cambridge, MA (United States); Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts (United States); Eltahir, Elfatih A.B. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts (United States)

    2012-01-15

    The importance of specifying realistic lateral boundary conditions in the regional modeling of mineral aerosols has not been examined previously. This study examines the impact of assigning values for mineral aerosol (dust) concentrations at the lateral boundaries of Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) and its aerosol model over Southwest Asia. Currently, the dust emission module of RegCM3 operates over the interior of the domain, allowing dust to be transported to the boundaries, but neglecting any dust emitted at these points or from outside the domain. To account for possible dust occurring at, or entering from the boundaries, mixing ratios of dust concentrations from a larger domain RegCM3 simulation are specified at the boundaries of a smaller domain over Southwest Asia. The lateral boundary conditions are monthly averaged concentration values ({mu}g of dust per kg of dry air) resolved in the vertical for all four dust bin sizes within RegCM3's aerosol model. RegCM3 simulations with the aerosol/dust model including lateral boundary conditions for dust are performed for a five year period and compared to model simulations without prescribed dust concentrations at the boundaries. Results indicate that specifying boundary conditions has a significant impact on dust loading across the entire domain over Southwest Asia. More specifically, a nearly 30% increase in aerosol optical depth occurs during the summer months from specifying realistic dust boundary conditions, bringing model results closer to observations such as MISR. In addition, smaller dust particles at the boundaries have a more important impact than large particles in affecting the dust loading within the interior of this domain. Moreover, increases in aerosol optical depth and dust concentrations within the interior domain are not entirely caused by inflow from the boundaries; results indicate that an increase in the gradient of concentration at the boundaries causes an increase of

  12. Antishocks in the ASEP with open boundaries conditioned on low current

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belitsky, V; Schütz, G M

    2013-01-01

    We study the time evolution of the ASEP on a finite lattice with L sites and open boundaries, conditioned on an atypically low current up to a finite time t. By an exact computation, we show that for a one-parameter family of boundary densities and a special value of the conditioned current, an initial product measure with an antishock at site k evolves into a convex combination of such antishocks at sites k′. The weights p(k′, t|k, 0) are shown to be the transition probabilities of simple biased random walk with reflecting boundaries. We compute explicitly these transition rates. Our result implies that the antishock remains microscopically stable under the locally conditioned dynamics. (paper)

  13. The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

    1988-01-01

    A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

  14. The impact of changing climate conditions on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments in Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eirini Vozinaki, Anthi; Tapoglou, Evdokia; Tsanis, Ioannis

    2017-04-01

    Climate change, although is already happening, consists of a big threat capable of causing lots of inconveniences in future societies and their economies. In this work, the climate change impact on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments, in Crete, is presented. The sensitivity of these hydrological systems to several climate change scenarios is also provided. The HBV hydrological model has been used, calibrated and validated for the study sub-catchments against measured weather and streamflow data and inputs. The impact of climate change on several hydro-meteorological parameters (i.e. precipitation, streamflow etc.) and hydrological signatures (i.e. spring flood peak, length and volume, base flow, flow duration curves, seasonality etc.) have been statistically elaborated and analyzed, defining areas of increased probability risk associated additionally to flooding or drought. The potential impacts of climate change on current and future water resources have been quantified by driving HBV model with current and future scenarios, respectively, for specific climate periods. This work aims to present an integrated methodology for the definition of future climate and hydrological risks and the prediction of future water resources behavior. Future water resources management could be rationally effectuated, in Mediterranean sub-catchments prone to drought or flooding, using the proposed methodology. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

  15. The Climate for Steel. Actions for, and conditions to, a Copenhagen climate agreement from the perspective of the EU steel sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slingerland, S.; Werring, L.; De Bruijn, S.; Korteland, M.

    2009-02-01

    A position paper discussing the relationship between climate change policies and competitiveness in the global steel sector. Question is how the need for effective action to confront global climate change can be combined with a level playing field for competition in the global steel sector, taking into account the position of Corus Netherlands as a European steel producer. More specifically; what conditions in an international agreement could provide such a level playing field? Chapter 2 of this paper briefly outlines some essential characteristics of the global and European steel sector. Chapter 3 outlines the present status quo of the multilateral climate change negotiation process towards the December 2009 Copenhagen conference. Chapter 4 gives a view on climate and competitiveness for the EU steel sector. Chapter 5 finally provides conclusions and recommendations for provisions in an international agreement that could provide for a competitive level playing field in the steel sector

  16. Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

    2007-09-01

    This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

  17. The Current Mental State of School Students in Online Learning Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovalevskaya E.V.,

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the results of a study of actual mental state of high school students who are active subjects of career self-determination in terms of interactive learning. There are four groups of methods of interactive training: psychological training, art therapy, cognitive, and game training. The main task, which is solved by a researcher in a formative experiment with the use of each of these methods, is to establish significant differences in health, activity and mood as the indicators of current mental state of students in the classroom. As a result, we found that the most significant improvements in the current mental state takes place when using art and game therapy, so these techniques should be used in groups of students with low motivation to work, as well as in the adverse psychological climate. Less significant was the improvement of the current mental state after psychological training due to the fact that this method allow to update and seek solutions to the most important intrapersonal issues and require the implementation of a deeper reflection

  18. Assessing the Impacts of Atmospheric Conditions under Climate Change on Air Quality Profile over Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hei Tong, Cheuk

    2017-04-01

    Small particulates can cause long term impairment to human health as they can penetrate deep and deposit on the wall of the respiratory system. Under the projected climate change as reported by literature, atmospheric stability, which has strong effects on vertical mixing of air pollutants and thus air quality Hong Kong, is also varying from near to far future. In addition to domestic emission, Hong Kong receives also significant concentration of cross-boundary particulates that their natures and movements are correlated with atmospheric condition. This study aims to study the relation of atmospheric conditions with air quality over Hong Kong. Past meteorological data is based on Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data. Radiosonde data provided from HKO are also adopted in testing and validating the data. Future meteorological data is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), which dynamically downscaled the past and future climate under the A1B scenario simulated by ECHAM5/MPIOM. Air quality data is collected on one hand from the ground station data provided by Environment Protection Department, with selected stations revealing local emission and trans-boundary emission respectively. On the other hand, an Atmospheric Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), which operates using the radar principle to detect Rayleigh and Mie scattering from atmospheric gas and aerosols, has also been adopted to measure vertical aerosol profile, which has been observed tightly related to the high level meteorology. Data from scattered signals are collected, averaged or some episode selected for characteristic comparison with the atmospheric stability indices and other meteorological factors. The relation between atmospheric conditions and air quality is observed by statistical analysis, and statistical models are built based on the stability indices to project the changes in sulphur dioxide, ozone and particulate

  19. Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

    1988-04-01

    The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

  20. Evaluating Thermal Comfort in a Naturally Conditioned Office in a Temperate Climate Zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés Gallardo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the optimal approach for evaluating thermal comfort in an office that uses natural ventilation as the main conditioning strategy; the office is located in Quito-Ecuador. The performance of the adaptive model included in CEN Standard EN15251 and the traditional PMV model are compared with reports of thermal environment satisfaction surveys presented simultaneously to all occupants of the office to determine which of the two comfort models is most suitable to evaluate the thermal environment. The results indicate that office occupants have developed some degree of adaptation to the climatic conditions of the city where the office is located (which only demands heating operation, and tend to accept and even prefer lower operative temperatures than those considered optimum by applying the PMV model. This is an indication that occupants of naturally conditioned buildings are usually able to match their comfort temperature to their normal environment. Therefore, the application of the adaptive model included in CEN Standard EN15251 seems like the optimal approach for evaluating thermal comfort in naturally conditioned buildings, because it takes into consideration the adaptive principle that indicates that if a change occurs such as to produce discomfort, people tend to react in ways which restore their comfort.

  1. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2014-05-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 years because of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud dormancy, and on the other hand higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cells growth afterwards. Increasing phenological changes in temperate woody species have strong impacts on forest trees distribution and productivity, as well as crops cultivation areas. Accurate predictions of trees phenology are therefore a prerequisite to understand and foresee the impacts of climate change on forests and agrosystems. Different process-based models have been developed in the last two decades to predict the date of budburst or flowering of woody species. They are two main families: (1) one-phase models which consider only the ecodormancy phase and make the assumption that endodormancy is always broken before adequate climatic conditions for cell growth occur; and (2) two-phase models which consider both the endodormancy and ecodormancy phases and predict a date of dormancy break which varies from year to year. So far, one-phase models have been able to predict accurately tree bud break and flowering under historical climate. However, because they do not consider what happens prior to ecodormancy, and especially the possible negative effect of winter temperature warming on dormancy break, it seems unlikely that they can provide accurate predictions in future climate conditions. It is indeed well known that a lack of low temperature results in abnormal pattern of bud break and development in temperate fruit trees. An accurate modelling of the dormancy break date has thus become a major issue in phenology modelling. Two-phases phenological models predict that global warming should delay

  2. Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klein, Petra M., E-mail: pkklein@ou.edu [School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Coffman, Reid, E-mail: rcoffma4@kent.edu [College of Architecture and Environmental Design, Kent State University, Kent, OH (United States)

    2015-04-15

    Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April–October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating

  3. Establishment and performance of an experimental green roof under extreme climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, Petra M.; Coffman, Reid

    2015-01-01

    Green roofs alter the surface energy balance and can help in mitigating urban heat islands. However, the cooling of green roofs due to evapotranspiration strongly depends on the climatic conditions, and vegetation type and density. In the Southern Central Plains of the United States, extreme weather events, such as high winds, heat waves and drought conditions pose challenges for successful implementation of green roofs, and likely alter their standard performance. The National Weather Center Experimental Green Roof, an interdisciplinary research site established in 2010 in Norman, OK, aimed to investigate the ecological performance and surface energy balance of green roof systems. Starting in May 2010, 26 months of vegetation studies were conducted and the radiation balance, air temperature, relative humidity, and buoyancy fluxes were monitored at two meteorological stations during April–October 2011. The establishment of a vegetative community trended towards prairie plant dominance. High mortality of succulents and low germination of grasses and herbaceous plants contributed to low vegetative coverage. In this condition succulent diversity declined. Bouteloua gracilis and Delosperma cooperi showed typological dominance in harsh climatic conditions, while Sedum species experienced high mortality. The plant community diversified through volunteers such as Euphorbia maculate and Portulaca maculate. Net radiation measured at a green-roof meteorological station was higher than at a control station over the original, light-colored roofing material. These findings indicate that the albedo of the green roof was lower than the albedo of the original roofing material. The low vegetative coverage during the heat and drought conditions in 2011, which resulted in the dark substrate used in the green roof containers being exposed, likely contributed to the low albedo values. Nevertheless, air temperatures and buoyancy fluxes were often lower over the green roof indicating

  4. Operating modes of high-Tc composite superconductors and thermal runaway conditions under current charging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romanovskii, V R; Watanabe, K

    2006-01-01

    The operating thermal and electric modes of a high-T c superconducting composite in partially and fully penetrated states induced by the charging current are investigated. They were studied under conditions in which the current charging rate, the volume fraction of the superconductor in a composite or the temperature of the cooling bath were changed. The transient behaviour of the voltage-current dependence, which is characteristic during stable and unstable increases in electric field inside the composite under a continuous current charging, is discussed. Simulations were done using zero- and one-dimensional steady and unsteady thermoelectric models with a power equation describing the virgin voltage-current characteristic of a superconductor. It is found that some thermoelectric trends underlie the shape of the voltage-current characteristic of the high-T c superconducting composite. These have to be considered during experiments in which the critical or quench currents are defined. First, in the initial stage of the fully penetrated regime (in the low voltage range), the electric field distribution does not have a uniform character. These states depend on the volume fraction of the superconductor and the current charging rate: the higher these quantities, the higher the heterogeneity of the electric field. Second, during the stable over-critical regime (in the high voltage range) occurring in complete penetration modes, the evolution of the electric field may depend on the relevant temperature increase of a composite according to the corresponding increase in its temperature-dependent heat capacity. Consequently, the shape of the voltage-current characteristic of a composite high-T c superconductor during continuous current charging, both before and after thermal runaway, has only a positive slope. Moreover, it is proved that the growth of the fully penetrated part of the voltage-current characteristic becomes less intensive when the current charging rate or the

  5. Performance Analysis of Air-to-Water Heat Pump in Latvian Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazjonovs, Janis; Sipkevics, Andrejs; Jakovics, Andris; Dancigs, Andris; Bajare, Diana; Dancigs, Leonards

    2014-12-01

    Strategy of the European Union in efficient energy usage demands to have a higher proportion of renewable energy in the energy market. Since heat pumps are considered to be one of the most efficient heating and cooling systems, they will play an important role in the energy consumption reduction in buildings aimed to meet the target of nearly zero energy buildings set out in the EU Directive 2010/31/EU. Unfortunately, the declared heat pump Coefficient of Performance (COP) corresponds to a certain outdoor temperature (+7 °C), therefore different climate conditions, building characteristics and settings result in different COP values during the year. The aim of this research is to investigate the Seasonal Performance factor (SPF) values of air-to-water heat pump which better characterize the effectiveness of heat pump in a longer selected period of time, especially during the winter season, in different types of residential buildings in Latvian climate conditions. Latvia has four pronounced seasons of near-equal length. Winter starts in mid-December and lasts until mid-March. Latvia is characterized by cold, maritime climate (duration of the average heating period being 203 days, the average outdoor air temperature during the heating period being 0.0 °C, the coldest five-day average temperature being -20.7 °C, the average annual air temperature being +6.2 °C, the daily average relative humidity being 79 %). The first part of this research consists of operational air-towater heat pump energy performance monitoring in different residential buildings during the winter season. The second part of the research takes place under natural conditions in an experimental construction stand which is located in an urban environment in Riga, Latvia. The inner area of this test stand, where air-to-water heat pump performance is analyzed, is 9 m2. The ceiling height is 3 m, all external wall constructions (U = 0.16 W/(m2K)) have ventilated facades. To calculate SPF, the

  6. The residential electricity sector in Denmark: A description of current conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kitzing, Lena; Katz, Jonas; Schröder, Sascha Thorsten

    We provide an overview of the current conditions and framework for residential electricity consumption in Denmark. This includes a general overview of the sector, the retail market and the regulatory framework. We describe the regulations currently in place and changes which have been decided...... in the area, which are listed in the Glossary towards the end of the report. We also attach a list and description of the major sources of information and data that can be obtained and downloaded for analysis of the Danish residential electricity sector....

  7. Electromagnetic characterization of current transformer with toroidal core under sinusoidal conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koprivica, Branko, E-mail: branko.koprivica@ftn.kg.ac.rs; Milovanovic, Alenka, E-mail: alenka.milovanovic@ftn.kg.ac.rs

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to present a new procedure for the electromagnetic analysis of a measuring current transformer under sinusoidal conditions in its electrical and magnetic circuit. The influence of the magnetic hysteresis has been taken into account using the measured inverse magnetization curve and phase lag between the time waveforms of the magnetic field and the magnetic induction. Using the proposed analysis, ratio and phase errors of the current transformer have been calculated. The results of the calculation have been compared with experimental results and a good agreement has been found.

  8. Interactive effects of air pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems in the United States: current understanding and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Mark Fenn; Steven McNulty; Fengming Yuan; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles Driscoll; Tom Meixner

    2013-01-01

    A review of the current status of air pollution and climate change (CC) in the United States from a perspective of their impacts on forest ecosystems is provided. Ambient ozone (O3) and nitrogen (N) deposition have important and widespread ecological impacts in U.S. forests. Effects of sulphurous (S) air pollutants and other trace pollutants have...

  9. Will dragonblood survive the next period of climate change? Current and future potential distribution of Dracaena cinnabari (Socotra, Yemen)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attorre, F.; Francesconi, F.; Taleb, N.; Scholte, P.; Saed, A.; Alfo, M.; Bruno, F.

    2007-01-01

    The potential impact of climate change on Dracaena cinnabari, a spectacular relict of the Mio-Pliocene Laurasian subtropical forest in Socotra (Yemen), was analysed. Current distribution, abundance and vertical structure of D. cinnabari populations were assessed with 74 plots in nine remnant areas.

  10. Indiana bat summer maternity distribution: effects of current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan C. Loeb; Eric A. Winters

    2013-01-01

    Temperate zone bats may be more sensitive to climate change than other groups of mammals because many aspects of their ecology are closely linked to temperature. However, few studies have tried to predict the responses of bats to climate change. The Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) is a federally listed endangered species that is found in the eastern...

  11. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  12. Silvicultural approaches to maintain forest health and productivity under current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul D. Anderson; Daniel J. Chmura

    2009-01-01

    Climate modeling based on a variety of scenarios for the Pacific Northwest suggests that over the next century temperatures may increase and that the abundance of summer precipitation may decline. Historically, climate changes at the century scale have been accompanied by adjustments in species population sizes and the composition of vegetation communities....

  13. Climate Change Education: Preparing Future and Current Business Leaders--A Workshop Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storksdieck, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses challenges as well as opportunities for businesses and, broadly speaking for the entire economy. Businesses will be challenged to provide services or products with less harmful influence on the climate; respond to a changing policy, regulatory, and market environment; and provide new services and products to help address the…

  14. Climate change, water stress, conflict and migration : Taking stock of current insights through a vulnerability lens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermans, L.M.

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing awareness in international policy circles that climate change may be a driver of increased migration flows. In addition to political refugees and economic migrants, climate change-induced migration and environmental migrants are increasingly recognized as categories in human

  15. Detailed performance analysis of realistic solar photovoltaic systems at extensive climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Ankit; Chauhan, Yogesh K.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, solar energy has been considered as one of the principle renewable energy source for electric power generation. In this paper, single diode photovoltaic (PV) system and double/bypass diode based PV system are designed in MATLAB/Simulink environment based on their mathematical modeling and are validated with a commercially available solar panel. The novelty of the paper is to include the effect of climatic conditions i.e. variable irradiation level, wind speed, temperature, humidity level and dust accumulation in the modeling of both the PV systems to represent a realistic PV system. The comprehensive investigations are made on both the modeled PV systems. The obtained results show the satisfactory performance for realistic models of the PV system. Furthermore, an in depth comparative analysis is carried out for both PV systems. - Highlights: • Modeling of Single diode and Double diode PV systems in MATLAB/Simulink software. • Validation of designed PV systems with a commercially available PV panel. • Acquisition and employment of key climatic factors in modeling of the PV systems. • Evaluation of main model parameters of both the PV systems. • Detailed comparative assessment of both the modeled PV system parameters.

  16. Monitoring Thermal Performance of Hollow Bricks with Different Cavity Fillers in Difference Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlík, Zbyšek; Jerman, Miloš; Fořt, Jan; Černý, Robert

    2015-03-01

    Hollow brick blocks have found widespread use in the building industry during the last decades. The increasing requirements to the thermal insulation properties of building envelopes given by the national standards in Europe led the brick producers to reduce the production of common solid bricks. Brick blocks with more or less complex systems of internal cavities replaced the traditional bricks and became dominant on the building ceramics market. However, contrary to the solid bricks where the thermal conductivity can easily be measured by standard methods, the complex geometry of hollow brick blocks makes the application of common techniques impossible. In this paper, a steady-state technique utilizing a system of two climatic chambers separated by a connecting tunnel for sample positioning is used for the determination of the thermal conductivity, thermal resistance, and thermal transmittance ( U value) of hollow bricks with the cavities filled by air, two different types of mineral wool, polystyrene balls, and foam polyurethane. The particular brick block is provided with the necessary temperature- and heat-flux sensors and thermally insulated in the tunnel. In the climatic chambers, different temperatures are set. After steady-state conditions are established in the measuring system, the effective thermal properties of the brick block are calculated using the measured data. Experimental results show that the best results are achieved with hydrophilic mineral wool as a cavity filler; the worst performance exhibits the brick block with air-filled cavities.

  17. Kinetically limited weathering at low denudation rates in semiarid climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoonejans, Jérôme; Vanacker, Veerle; Opfergelt, Sophie; Ameijeiras-Mariño, Yolanda; Christl, Marcus

    2016-02-01

    Biogeochemical cycling within the Critical Zone depends on the interactions between minerals and fluids controlling chemical weathering and physical erosion rates. In this study, we explore the role of water availability in controlling soil chemical weathering in semiarid climatic conditions. Weathering rates and intensities were evaluated for nine soil profiles located on convex ridge crests of three mountain ranges in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. We combine a geochemical mass balance with 10Be cosmogenic nuclides to constrain chemical weathering intensities and long-term denudation rates. As such, this study presents new data on chemical weathering and 10Be-derived denudation for understudied semiarid climate systems. In the Betic Cordillera, chemical weathering intensities are relatively low (~5 to 30% of the total denudation of the soil) and negatively correlated with the magnitude of the water deficit in soils. Chemical mass losses are inversely related to denudation rates (14-109 mm/kyr) and positively to soil thickness (14-58 cm); these results are consistent with kinetic limitation of chemical weathering rates. A worldwide compilation of chemical weathering data suggests that soil water balance may regulate the coupling between chemical weathering and physical erosion by modulating soil solute fluxes. Therefore, future landscape evolution models that seek to link chemical weathering and physical erosion should include soil water flux as an essential driver of weathering.

  18. Productive and qualitative evaluation of onion cultivars under agro-climatic conditions of faisalabad

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mushtaq, S.; Amjad, M.; Ziaf, K.; Cheema, K.L.

    2013-01-01

    Onion varieties are very specific in their photoperiod and vernalization requirements and therefore vary for yield, yield related traits and bolting in a specific agro-climate. Therefore, performance of nineteen onion varieties for these traits was evaluated at Vegetable Research Institute, Faisalabad. The maximum bolting percentage was recorded in Desi Red (46.67%) that indicates less vernalization requirement of this variety while it was the minimum in Faisal Red and VRIO-6 (13.33%). The cultivar Phulkara produced larger size bulbs (73.22 mm diameter) as well as highest yield (21.90 t ha/sup -1/) and bulb to neck diameter ratio (6.75). Similarly, minimum weight loss during curing was observed in Desi Red (4.64%), Pusa Red (4.76%) and Phulkara (4.83%), indicating higher dry matter contents while maximum weight loss (6%) was recorded in VRIO-6. Overall results revealed that both Phulkara and Desi Red are excellent for processing while Dark Red for cooking purpose under agro-climatic conditions of Faisalabad. (author)

  19. Cropland versus Gariga schrubland on soil organic carbon storage under Mediterranen climatic condition of Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novara, A.; Gristina, L.; Santoro, A.; Poma, I.

    2009-04-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) pool is the largest among the terrestrial pool and it plays a key role to mitigate climate change. The restoration of SOC pool represents a potential sink for atmospheric CO2. Land use is one of the most important factors controlling organic carbon content. The main land uses throughout the Mediterranean are croplands (olive, wheat and vineyards) and scrublands. The land abandonment or the reclamation of land is changing the cover of scrubland and cropland. This will change the carbon cycle. The aim of this work is determining the direction and magnitude of soil organic change associated with land use change under Mediterranean Climatic Conditions. Using both historic record and land cover crop maps we estimated the effect of land cover change on the stock carbon from 1972 to 2008 in Sicily. A system of paired plots was established on Mollic Gypsiric cambisol and Gypsiric cambisol on agriculture and rangeland land uses. The study sites were selected at the natural reserve "Grotta di S. Ninfa", in the West of Sicily. Soil samples (24) were taken at 20 and 40 cm depth, air dried and sieved at 2 mm. Dry aggregate size fractions selected were >1000 µm, 1000-500 µm, 500-250 µm, 250-63 µm, 63-25 µm and <25 µm. The results show that gariga increase the organic matter in soil, mainly on the organic horizon. Key worlds: Land use change, Soil organic Carbon , Mediterranean, aggregates, gariga, cropland.

  20. Sugarcane yield estimation for climatic conditions in the state of Goiás

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordana Moura Caetano

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Models that estimate potential and depleted crop yield according to climatic variable enable the crop planning and production quantification for a specific region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to compare methods to sugarcane yield estimates grown in the climatic condition in the central part of Goiás, Brazil. So, Agroecological Zone Method (ZAE and the model proposed by Scarpari (S were correlated with real data of sugarcane yield from an experimental area, located in Santo Antônio de Goiás, state of Goiás, Brazil. Data yield refer to the crops of 2008/2009 (sugarcane plant, 2009/2010, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 (ratoon sugarcane. Yield rates were calculated as a function of atmospheric water demand and water deficit in the area under study. Real and estimated yields were adjusted in function of productivity loss due to cutting stage of sugarcane, using an average reduction in productivity observed in the experimental area and the average reduction in the state of Goiás. The results indicated that the ZAE method, considering the water deficit, displayed good yield estimates for cane-plant (d > 0.90. Water deficit decreased the yield rates (r = -0.8636; α = 0.05 while the thermal sum increased that rate for all evaluated harvests (r > 0.68; α = 0.05.

  1. Changes on the coastline of buenaventura bay (colombian pacific) and its relationship with the climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo; Ricaurte-Villota, Constanza; Andres Ordoñez, Silvio

    2016-04-01

    Some authors point out that the variability of a coastal system is the response of physical factors (climate, waves, currents, wind, etc.) or combination of some of them, for example long-term variations in the relationship between climate and supply of sedimentary material. For Colombian Pacific coast it has been said that the regimen of meso-tidal is one of the agents that contribute to changes in the morphology of the littoral zone. Between 2012-2015 was conducted a research in the mouth of Buenaventura Bay (Colombia Pacific coast), using two stations: Soldado point (southern point of the bay) and Bazan point (the northern point of the bay), for those stations the digital elevation model (DEM) was performed using a DGPS with technology GNSS the recent evolution of the coastline and changes in volume of sand from beaches for two scalar approaches were determined: annual and intra-annual. The use of ArcGIS 3D Analyst in the DEMs allowed to calculate the cubic area between the raised surfaces each month. Changes in the coastline were made using Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) an ARCGIS extension. We used zonal and meridional components of the wind data near the coast from WindSat, rainfall and sea level anomaly data from the database AVISO (Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic), and sea level pressure (SLP) from NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research), in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Finally, climatic variables were correlated with the rates of coastal erosion and changes in sand volume of the beaches, because wind and precipitation are some of the factors in sediment transport. The study showed erosion rates with negative values in 2014 and 2015 that represent loss of land, the intra-annual variability in September and October were the highest loss of land, this coincides with the values of the highest tides of the

  2. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  3. Mixed precipitation occurrences over southern Québec, Canada, under warmer climate conditions using a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Dominic; Thériault, Julie M.; Laprise, René

    2018-05-01

    Winter weather events with temperatures near 0°C are often associated with freezing rain. They can have major impacts on the society by causing power outages and disruptions to the transportation networks. Despite the catastrophic consequences of freezing rain, very few studies have investigated how their occurrences could evolve under climate change. This study aims to investigate the change of freezing rain and ice pellets over southern Québec using regional climate modeling at high resolution. The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model with climate scenario RCP 8.5 at 0.11° grid mesh was used. The precipitation types such as freezing rain, ice pellets or their combination are diagnosed using five methods (Cantin and Bachand, Bourgouin, Ramer, Czys and, Baldwin). The occurrences of the diagnosed precipitation types for the recent past (1980-2009) are found to be comparable to observations. The projections for the future scenario (2070-2099) suggested a general decrease in the occurrences of mixed precipitation over southern Québec from October to April. This is mainly due to a decrease in long-duration events (≥6 h ). Overall, this study contributes to better understand how the distribution of freezing rain and ice pellets might change in the future using high-resolution regional climate model.

  4. Charge and current transport in open field lines turbulence: Influence of plasma-surface boundary conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Futtersack, R., E-mail: romain.futtersack@cea.fr [CEA, IRFM, F-13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Universite Paul Sabatier Toulouse, LAPLACE, 118 Route de Narbonne, F-31062 Toulouse Cedex 9 (France); Tamain, P. [CEA, IRFM, F-13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Hagelaar, G. [Universite Paul Sabatier Toulouse, LAPLACE, 118 Route de Narbonne, F-31062 Toulouse Cedex 9 (France); Ghendrih, Ph.; Simonin, A. [CEA, IRFM, F-13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France)

    2013-07-15

    We investigate the impact of both parallel and transverse boundary conditions on the current and charge transport in open field line systems using the TOKAM2D code, which solves a minimal model for interchange turbulence. Various limit test cases are discussed and analyzed. In the parallel direction, the sheath conductivity is found to play an essential role in the stabilization of large-scale potential structures, leading to the formation of transport channel or transport barrier respectively for an insulating end wall or a wall with an enhanced sheath conductivity. On another hand, the addition of transverse boundary conditions intrinsically changes the transport characteristics, influencing both radial profiles and probability density functions. It underlines that in some cases a detailed description of the plasma-wall interaction process is required to get a proper description of the current loop pattern that determines electrostatic turbulent transport.

  5. Climatic and environmental conditions favoring the crossing of the Carpathians by early Neolithic populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perşoiu, Ioana; Perşoiu, Aurel

    2015-04-01

    The study of the origin and spread of Neolithic has been the subject of heated debate since the early studies of Childe (1942). To what extent the dispersal process was influenced by environmental factors is still debated, one of the issues being whether climatic conditions influencing agricultural practices, could have influenced the dispersal route, "blocking" some of the Neolithic societies in front of ecological barriers. Data from Neolithic sites in SE Europe shows that a continuous stream of people and cultures flowed through the Danube's Iron Gates towards Central Europe, while in the eastern part of Europe this process was delayed, people and cultures "moving" around the Carpathians and crossing them with a delay of ca. 1000 years. One of the possible avenues for this crossing is the floodplain of Someşu Mic River (Transylvanian depression), home to the oldest (~8500 cal. BP) Neolithic settlement in Romania. In this paper, we review the climatic and environmental changes that affected the region at the time of Neolithic dispersal. Pollen and stable isotopes in cave ice indicate an early Holocene rapid warming during summer months, peaking around 7 ka cal. BP; and a delayed warming for autumn and winter months, peaking at 5 ka cal. BP, both followed by a continuous cooling trend towards the present. Someşu Mic River developed and maintained a narrow sinuous channel during the Holocene, with local development of meanders and anabranches, in response to both climatic and geologic controlling factors. Archaeological finds in the floodplain and the lower terraces suggest that human societies in the region responded in sensitive manner to these climatic and environmental changes. During warm and dry periods, with low fluvial activity, the number of settlements increased in the floodplain's perimeter, while during the short cold and humid periods, the number of settlements rapidly increased on the lower terraces and on the valley slopes, disappearing from the

  6. Life cycle of the potato golden cyst nematode (Globodera rostochiensis grown under climatic conditions in Belgrade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bačić Jasmina

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The life cycle of a population of the quarantine nematode Globodera rostochiensis on the root of susceptible potato variety, Desiree, originating from an infected field (CC Ljubovija no. 413 on the mountain of Jagodnja in the district of Mačva, was studied under experimental conditions in Belgrade in 2002-2003. The golden cyst nematode completed one generation per year in the temperate climate of this region. In 2002, the life cycle lasted 29 days after the penetration of the second stage juveniles into the roots. An adverse effect of high soil temperatures above 25 °C was observed in 2003, influencing the development of the nematode and making the life cycle last two months longer.

  7. Enhanced D-T supershot performance at high current using extensive lithium conditioning in TFTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mansfield, D.K.; Strachan, J.D.; Bell, M.G.; Scott, S.D.; Budny, R.; Bell, R.E.; Bitter, M.; Darrow, D.S.; Fredrickson, E.; Grek, B.

    1995-05-01

    A substantial improvement in supershot fusion plasma performance has been realized by combining the enhanced confinement due to tritium fueling with the enhanced confinement due to extensive Li conditioning of the TFTR limiter. This combination has resulted in not only significantly higher global energy confinement times than had previously been obtained in high current supershots, but also the highest ratio of central fusion output power to input power observed to date

  8. The Development of Forms of Corporate Social Responsibility in Russia in the Current Economic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Arzumanova

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals the characteristic features of modern trends in the formation and implementation of corporate social responsibility in Russia in the current economic conditions, which is based on the fact that reasonable economic interests oriented business not only on maximizing profits, but also to improve their own macro - socio-economic, natural, political, through voluntary investment profits in the respective areas.

  9. DC Link Current Estimation in Wind-Double Feed Induction Generator Power Conditioning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIAN GAICEANU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the implementation of the DC link current estimator in power conditioning system of the variable speed wind turbine is shown. The wind turbine is connected to double feed induction generator (DFIG. The variable electrical energy parameters delivered by DFIG are fitted with the electrical grid parameters through back-to-back power converter. The bidirectional AC-AC power converter covers a wide speed range from subsynchronous to supersynchronous speeds. The modern control of back-to-back power converter involves power balance concept, therefore its load power should be known in any instant. By using the power balance control, the DC link voltage variation at the load changes can be reduced. In this paper the load power is estimated from the dc link, indirectly, through a second order DC link current estimator. The load current estimator is based on the DC link voltage and on the dc link input current of the rotor side converter. This method presents certain advantages instead of using measured method, which requires a low pass filter: no time delay, the feedforward current component has no ripple, no additional hardware, and more fast control response. Through the numerical simulation the performances of the proposed DC link output current estimator scheme are demonstrated.

  10. Effects of lateral boundary condition resolution and update frequency on regional climate model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pankatz, Klaus; Kerkweg, Astrid

    2015-04-01

    The work presented is part of the joint project "DecReg" ("Regional decadal predictability") which is in turn part of the project "MiKlip" ("Decadal predictions"), an effort funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to improve decadal predictions on a global and regional scale. In MiKlip, one big question is if regional climate modeling shows "added value", i.e. to evaluate, if regional climate models (RCM) produce better results than the driving models. However, the scope of this study is to look more closely at the setup specific details of regional climate modeling. As regional models only simulate a small domain, they have to inherit information about the state of the atmosphere at their lateral boundaries from external data sets. There are many unresolved questions concerning the setup of lateral boundary conditions (LBC). External data sets come from global models or from global reanalysis data-sets. A temporal resolution of six hours is common for this kind of data. This is mainly due to the fact, that storage space is a limiting factor, especially for climate simulations. However, theoretically, the coupling frequency could be as high as the time step of the driving model. Meanwhile, it is unclear if a more frequent update of the LBCs has a significant effect on the climate in the domain of the RCM. The first study examines how the RCM reacts to a higher update frequency. The study is based on a 30 year time slice experiment for three update frequencies of the LBC, namely six hours, one hour and six minutes. The evaluation of means, standard deviations and statistics of the climate in the regional domain shows only small deviations, some statistically significant though, of 2m temperature, sea level pressure and precipitation. The second part of the first study assesses parameters linked to cyclone activity, which is affected by the LBC update frequency. Differences in track density and strength are found when comparing the simulations

  11. Dynamic data analysis of climate and recharge conditions over time in the Edwards Aquifer, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, S. A.; Collins, J.; Banner, J.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the temporal patterns in datasets related to climate, recharge, and water resource conditions is important for informing water management and policy decisions. Data analysis and pipelines for evaluating these disparate sources of information are challenging to set up and rely on emerging informatics tools to complete. This project gathers data from both historical and recent sources for the Edwards Aquifer of central Texas. The Edwards faces a unique array of challenges, as it is composed of karst limestone, is susceptible to contaminants and climate change, and is expected to supply water for a rapidly growing population. Given these challenges, new approaches to integrating data will be particularly important. Case study data from the Edwards is used to evaluate aquifer and hydrologic system conditions over time as well as to discover patterns and possible relationships across the information sources. Prior research that evaluated trends in discharge and recharge of the aquifer is revisited by considering new data from 1992-2015, and the sustainability of the Edwards as a water resource within the more recent time period is addressed. Reusable and shareable analytical data pipelines are constructed using Jupyter Notebooks and Python libraries, and an interactive visualization is implemented with the information. In addition to the data sources that are utilized for the water balance analyses, the Global Surface Water Monitoring System from the University of Minnesota, a tool that integrates a wide number of satellite datasets with known surface water dynamics and machine learning, is used to evaluate water body persistence and change over time at regional scales. Preliminary results indicate that surface water body over the Edwards with differing aerial extents are declining, excepting some dam-controlled lakes in the region. Other existing tools and machine learning applications are also considered. Results are useful to the Texas Water Research

  12. Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang Selsted, M

    2010-07-15

    Global change is a reality. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels are rising as well as mean global temperature and precipitation patterns are changing. These three environmental factors have separately and in combination effect on ecosystem processes. Terrestrial ecosystems hold large amounts of carbon, why understanding plant and soil responses to such changes are necessary, as ecosystems potentially can ameliorate or accelerate global change. To predict the feedback of ecosystems to the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations experiments imitating global change effects are therefore an important tool. This work on ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions, shows that extended summer drought in combination with elevated temperature will ensure permanent dryer soil conditions, which decreases carbon turnover, while elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations will increase carbon turnover. In the full future climate scenario, carbon turnover is over all expected to increase and the heathland to become a source of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The methodology of static chamber CO{sub 2} flux measurements and applying the technology in a FACE (free air CO{sub 2} enrichment) facility is a challenge. Fluxes of CO{sub 2} from soil to atmosphere depend on a physical equilibrium between those two medias, why it is important to keep the CO{sub 2} gradient between soil and atmosphere unchanged during measurement. Uptake to plants via photosynthesis depends on a physiological process, which depends strongly on the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and the CO{sub 2} soil-atmosphere gradient. (author)

  13. Degradation and performance evaluation of PV module in desert climate conditions with estimate uncertainty in measuring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fezzani Amor

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance of photovoltaic (PV module is affected by outdoor conditions. Outdoor testing consists installing a module, and collecting electrical performance data and climatic data over a certain period of time. It can also include the study of long-term performance under real work conditions. Tests are operated in URAER located in desert region of Ghardaïa (Algeria characterized by high irradiation and temperature levels. The degradation of PV module with temperature and time exposure to sunlight contributes significantly to the final output from the module, as the output reduces each year. This paper presents a comparative study of different methods to evaluate the degradation of PV module after a long term exposure of more than 12 years in desert region and calculates uncertainties in measuring. Firstly, this evaluation uses three methods: Visual inspection, data given by Solmetric PVA-600 Analyzer translated at Standard Test Condition (STC and based on the investigation results of the translation equations as ICE 60891. Secondly, the degradation rates calculated for all methods. Finally, a comparison between a degradation rates given by Solmetric PVA-600 analyzer, calculated by simulation model and calculated by two methods (ICE 60891 procedures 1, 2. We achieved a detailed uncertainty study in order to improve the procedure and measurement instrument.

  14. Comparison and development of advanced dosimetric techniques to be used under extreme climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madhvanath, U.

    1975-08-01

    The post-irradiation fading characteristics of various dosimeters in function of relative humidity of air during storage were tested in specially set up humidity boxes. The temperature and relative humidity were varied between 5deg-35degC and 40-90%, respectively. Fading was 70% and 80% at 2 and 6 days respectively, for Kodak Type 2 film under 28degC and 76% relative humidity. Under these conditions the corresponding values for NTA emulsions were 30% and 80% respectively. Agfa-Gevaert films proved to be less sensitive and gave 20% and 30%, respectively, for the mentioned intervals. When Kodak Type 2 film was sealed in polythene bags, fading was reduced considerably, to appr. 15% in 4 weeks. Alternate storage of exposed films in humid and dry conditions also reduced fading to the same extent. When NTA emulsions were double-sealed with desiccant inside fading was reduced to 10% in 15 days. CaSO 4 :Dy (DRP and Harshaw) showed only 7% fading in 3 months. LiF TLD-100 was more sensitive, 13% in 2 months. Gamma-irradiated Li-borate has faded up to 30% at extreme climatic conditions in 3 months but thermal neutron irradiated Li-borate was resistant against fading for this period

  15. Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene climate evolution controlled by sea-level change, Leeuwin Current, and Australian Monsoon in the Northwestern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishiwa, T.; Yokoyama, Y.; McHugh, C.; Reuning, L.; Gallagher, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    The transition from cold to warm conditions during the last deglaciation influenced climate variability in the Indian Ocean and Pacific as a result of submerge of continental shelf and variations in the Indonesian Throughflow and Australian Monsoon. The shallow continental shelf (Program Expedition 356 Indonesian Throughflow drilled in the northwestern Australian shallow continental shelf and recovered an interval from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene in Site U1461. Radiocarbon dating on macrofossils, foraminifera, and bulk organic matter provided a precise age-depth model, leading to high-resolved paleoclimate reconstruction. X-ray elemental analysis results are interpreted as an indicator of sedimentary environmental changes. The upper 20-m part of Site U1461 apparently records the climate transition from the LGM to Holocene in the northwestern Australia, which could be associated with sea-level change, Leeuwin Current activity, and the Australian Monsoon.

  16. Growing Season Conditions Mediate the Dependence of Aspen on Redistributed Snow Under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soderquist, B.; Kavanagh, K.; Link, T. E.; Seyfried, M. S.; Strand, E. K.

    2016-12-01

    Precipitation regimes in many semiarid ecosystems are becoming increasingly dominated by winter rainfall as a result of climate change. Across these regions, snowpack plays a vital role in the distribution and timing of soil moisture availability. Rising temperatures will result in a more uniform distribution of soil moisture, advanced spring phenology, and prolonged growing seasons. Productive and wide ranging tree species like aspen, Populus tremuloides, may experience increased vulnerability to drought and mortality resulting from both reduced snowpack and increased evaporative demand during the growing season. We simulated the net primary production (NPP) of aspen stands spanning the rain:snow transition zone in the Reynolds Creek Critical Zone Observatory (RCCZO) in southwest Idaho, USA. Within the RCCZO, the total amount of precipitation has remained unchanged over the past 50 years, however the percentage of the precipitation falling as snow has declined by approximately 4% per decade at mid-elevation sites. The biogeochemical process model Biome-BGC was used to simulate aspen NPP at three stands located directly below snowdrifts that provide melt water late into the spring. After adjusting precipitation inputs to account for the redistribution of snow, we assessed climate change impacts on future aspen productivity. Mid-century (2046-2065) aspen NPP was simulated using temperature projections from a multi-model average under high emission conditions using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) data set. While climate change simulations indicated over a 20% decrease in annual NPP for some years, NPP rates for other mid-century years remained relatively unchanged due to variations in growing season conditions. Mid-century years with the largest decreases in NPP typically showed increased spring transpiration rates resulting from earlier leaf flush combined with warmer spring conditions. During these years, the onset of drought stress occurred

  17. Stress and body condition are associated with climate and demography in Asian elephants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumby, Hannah S; Mar, Khyne U; Thitaram, Chatchote; Courtiol, Alexandre; Towiboon, Patcharapa; Min-Oo, Zaw; Htut-Aung, Ye; Brown, Janine L; Lummaa, Virpi

    2015-01-01

    Establishing links between ecological variation, physiological markers of stress and demography is crucial for understanding how and why changes in environmental conditions affect population dynamics, and may also play a key role for conservation efforts of endangered species. However, detailed longitudinal studies of long-lived species are rarely available. We test how two markers of stress and body condition vary through the year and are associated with climatic conditions and large-scale mortality and fertility variation in the world's largest semi-captive population of Asian elephants employed in the timber industry in Myanmar. Glucocorticoid metabolites (used as a proxy for stress levels in 75 elephants) and body weight (used as a proxy for condition in 116 elephants) were monitored monthly across a typical monsoon cycle and compared with birth and death patterns of the entire elephant population over half a century (n = 2350). Our results show seasonal variation in both markers of stress and condition. In addition, this variation is correlated with population-level demographic variables. Weight is inversely correlated with population mortality rates 1 month later, and glucocorticoid metabolites are negatively associated with birth rates. Weight shows a highly positive correlation with rainfall 1 month earlier. Determining the factors associated with demography may be key to species conservation by providing information about the correlates of mortality and fertility patterns. The unsustainability of the studied captive population has meant that wild elephants have been captured and tamed for work. By elucidating the correlates of demography in captive elephants, our results offer management solutions that could reduce the pressure on the wild elephant population in Myanmar.

  18. Current Needs for the Experimental Investigation of the CHF Phenomenon Relevant to LWR Core Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Corre, J.M.

    2009-01-01

    The current achievements and needs toward the investigation, understanding and mechanistic prediction of the Critical Heat Flux (CHF) event, under PWR and BWR core conditions, are addressed in this paper. It is shown that, even when using advanced 3-D CFD simulation tools, the current approach to CHF mechanistic modeling has serious limitations. This is mainly due to the lack of information regarding the relevant two-phase flow pattern(s) (in particular near the heated wall) and associated mechanisms (at the meso and micro-scale) leading to the CHF event. Areas of current experimental needs are identified in order to address these shortcomings. In addition, the use of 1-D and 3-D numerical tools to mechanistically predict the CHF is discussed. It is shown that 3-D two-phase CFD codes may not be superior to 1-D codes without proper consideration of relevant constitutive relations. (author)

  19. Optimal conditions for high current proton irradiations at the university of Wisconsin's ion beam laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wetteland, C. J.; Field, K. G.; Gerczak, T. J.; Eiden, T. J.; Maier, B. R.; Albakri, O.; Sridharan, K.; Allen, T. R.

    2013-01-01

    The National Electrostatics Corporation's (NEC) Toroidal Volume Ion Source (TORVIS) source is known for exceptionally high proton currents with minimal service downtime as compared to traditional sputter sources. It has been possible to obtain over 150μA of proton current from the source, with over 70μA on the target stage. However, beam fluxes above ∼1×10 17 /m2-s may have many undesirable effects, especially for insulators. This may include high temperature gradients at the surface, sputtering, surface discharge, cracking or even disintegration of the sample. A series of experiments were conducted to examine the role of high current fluxes in a suite of ceramics and insulating materials. Results will show the optimal proton irradiation conditions and target mounting strategies needed to minimize unwanted macro-scale damage, while developing a procedure for conducting preliminary radiation experiments.

  20. Implications of Martian Phyllosilicate Formation Conditions to the Early Climate on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, J. L.; Baker, L.; Fairén, A. G.; Michalski, J. R.; Gago-Duport, L.; Velbel, M. A.; Gross, C.; Rampe, E. B.

    2017-12-01

    We propose that short-term warmer and wetter environments, occurring sporadically in a generally cold early Mars, enabled formation of phyllosilicate-rich outcrops on the surface of Mars without requiring long-term warm and wet conditions. We are investigating phyllosilicate formation mechanisms including CO2 and H2O budgets to provide constraints on the early martian climate. We have evaluated the nature and stratigraphy of phyllosilicate-bearing surface units on Mars based on i) phyllosilicate-forming environments on Earth, ii) phyllosilicate reactions in the lab, and iii) modeling experiments involving phyllosilicates and short-range ordered (SRO) materials. The type of phyllosilicates that form on Mars depends on temperature, water/rock ratio, acidity, salinity and available ions. Mg-rich trioctahedral smectite mixtures are more consistent with subsurface formation environments (crustal, hydrothermal or alkaline lakes) up to 400 °C and are not associated with martian surface environments. In contrast, clay profiles dominated by dioctahedral Al/Fe-smectites are typically formed in subaqueous or subaerial surface environments. We propose models describing formation of smectite-rich outcrops and laterally extensive vertical profiles of Fe/Mg-smectites, sulfates, and Al-rich clay assemblages formed in surface environments. Further, the presence of abundant SRO materials without phyllosilicates could mark the end of the last warm and wet episode on Mars supporting smectite formation. Climate Implications for Early Mars: Clay formation reactions proceed extremely slowly at cool temperatures. The thick smectite outcrops observed on Mars through remote sensing would require standing water on Mars for hundreds of millions of years if they formed in waters 10-15 °C. However, warmer temperatures could have enabled faster production of these smectite-rich beds. Sporadic warming episodes to 30-40 °C could have enabled formation of these smectites over only tens or

  1. Effects of Uncertainties in Electric Field Boundary Conditions for Ring Current Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Margaret W.; O'Brien, T. Paul; Lemon, Colby L.; Guild, Timothy B.

    2018-01-01

    Physics-based simulation results can vary widely depending on the applied boundary conditions. As a first step toward assessing the effect of boundary conditions on ring current simulations, we analyze the uncertainty of cross-polar cap potentials (CPCP) on electric field boundary conditions applied to the Rice Convection Model-Equilibrium (RCM-E). The empirical Weimer model of CPCP is chosen as the reference model and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program CPCP measurements as the reference data. Using temporal correlations from a statistical analysis of the "errors" between the reference model and data, we construct a Monte Carlo CPCP discrete time series model that can be generalized to other model boundary conditions. RCM-E simulations using electric field boundary conditions from the reference model and from 20 randomly generated Monte Carlo discrete time series of CPCP are performed for two large storms. During the 10 August 2000 storm main phase, the proton density at 10 RE at midnight was observed to be low (Dst index is bounded by the simulated Dst values. In contrast, the simulated Dst values during the recovery phases of the 10 August 2000 and 31 August 2005 storms tend to underestimate systematically the observed late Dst recovery. This suggests a need to improve the accuracy of particle loss calculations in the RCM-E model. Application of this technique can aid modelers to make efficient choices on either investing more effort on improving specification of boundary conditions or on improving descriptions of physical processes.

  2. A 10-days heatwave around flowering superimposed on climate change conditions significantly affects production of 22 barley accessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Lyngkjær, Michael F.; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

    2015-01-01

    Extreme climate events as heatwaves, floods and storms cause acute changes in season variability influencing primary production and are very likely to increase in magnitude and/or frequency (IPCC, AR5, WGI). In the present study 22 primarily Nordic barley accessions were grown in four basic clima...... climate change conditions on numerous accessions in order to select appropriate genotypes for breeding future cultivars that can secure the primary production....

  3. Replacement Condition Detection of Railway Point Machines Using an Electric Current Sensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa, Jaewon; Choi, Younchang; Chung, Yongwha; Kim, Hee-Young; Park, Daihee; Yoon, Sukhan

    2017-01-29

    Detecting replacement conditions of railway point machines is important to simultaneously satisfy the budget-limit and train-safety requirements. In this study, we consider classification of the subtle differences in the aging effect-using electric current shape analysis-for the purpose of replacement condition detection of railway point machines. After analyzing the shapes of after-replacement data and then labeling the shapes of each before-replacement data, we can derive the criteria that can handle the subtle differences between "does-not-need-to-be-replaced" and "needs-to-be-replaced" shapes. On the basis of the experimental results with in-field replacement data, we confirmed that the proposed method could detect the replacement conditions with acceptable accuracy, as well as provide visual interpretability of the criteria used for the time-series classification.

  4. Replacement Condition Detection of Railway Point Machines Using an Electric Current Sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa, Jaewon; Choi, Younchang; Chung, Yongwha; Kim, Hee-Young; Park, Daihee; Yoon, Sukhan

    2017-01-01

    Detecting replacement conditions of railway point machines is important to simultaneously satisfy the budget-limit and train-safety requirements. In this study, we consider classification of the subtle differences in the aging effect—using electric current shape analysis—for the purpose of replacement condition detection of railway point machines. After analyzing the shapes of after-replacement data and then labeling the shapes of each before-replacement data, we can derive the criteria that can handle the subtle differences between “does-not-need-to-be-replaced” and “needs-to-be-replaced” shapes. On the basis of the experimental results with in-field replacement data, we confirmed that the proposed method could detect the replacement conditions with acceptable accuracy, as well as provide visual interpretability of the criteria used for the time-series classification. PMID:28146057

  5. Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in China. Current status and the way ahead

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kejun Jiang; Xiulian Hu; Xianli Zhu; Garg, A.; Halsnaes, K.; Qiang Liu

    2007-09-01

    This report is the China Country Report of the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing economies. Under this project four country studies have been carried out, on China, India, Brazil, and South Africa respectively. The focus of this report is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. The report gives a short introduction to the project and its approach, followed by analyses of Chinese energy, development and climate change and an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. (BA)

  6. Improving PAQ and comfort conditions in Spanish office buildings with passive climate control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orosa, Jose A.; Baalina, A. [Departamento de Energia y P.M. Escuela Tecnica Superior de N. y M, Universidade da Coruna, Paseo de Ronda 51, P.C.:15011 A Coruna (Spain)

    2009-03-15

    Some researchers have demonstrated that passive moisture transfer between indoor air and hygroscopic structures has the potential to moderate variations of indoor air relative humidity and, thus, to improve comfort and PAQ [Simonson CJ, Salonvaara M, Ojalen T. The effect of structures on indoor humidity-possibility to improve comfort and perceived air quality. Indoor Air 2002; 12: 243-51; Simonson CJ, Salonvaara M, Ojalen T. Improving indoor climate and comfort with wooden structures. Espoo 2001. Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT Publications 431.200p+app 91p]. The main objective of this study is to show the internal wall coating effect on indoor air conditions and, as a consequence of this, in comfort conditions and PAQ. In a previous paper [Orosa JA, Baalina A. Passive climate control in Spanish office buildings for long periods of time. Building and Environment 2008], we analysed the influence of permeable and impermeable materials on indoor air conditions, during the unoccupied period, in 25 office buildings in different seasons. Results obtained lead us to conclude that real coverings such as permeable, semi-permeable and impermeable types, present different behavioural patterns in indoor air conditions. Furthermore, we concluded that an absorbent structure will moderate relative humidity indoors. In this paper, we study this indoor relative humidity effect on local thermal discomfort, due to decreased respiratory cooling, and indoor ambience acceptability for the early hours of morning applying PD and Acc models [Toftum J, Jorgensen AS, Fanger PO. Upper limits for indoor air humidity to avoid uncomfortably humid skin. Energy and buildings 1998; 28: 1-13; Toftum J, Jorgensen AS, Fanger PO. Upper limits of air humidity for preventing warm respiratory discomfort. Energy and Buildings 1998; 28: 15-23] such as that proposed by Simonson et al. [The effect of structures on indoor humidity-possibility to improve comfort and perceived air quality. Indoor Air

  7. Sustainability of small reservoirs and large scale water availability under current conditions and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krol, Martinus S.; de Vries, Marjella J.; van Oel, Pieter R.; Carlos de Araújo, José

    2011-01-01

    Semi-arid river basins often rely on reservoirs for water supply. Small reservoirs may impact on large-scale water availability both by enhancing availability in a distributed sense and by subtracting water for large downstream user communities, e.g. served by large reservoirs. Both of these impacts

  8. Influence of parental education, childhood adversities, and current living conditions on daily smoking in early adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kestilä, Laura; Koskinen, Seppo; Martelin, Tuija; Rahkonen, Ossi; Pensola, Tiina; Pirkola, Sami; Patja, Kristiina; Aromaa, Arpo

    2006-12-01

    To assess the association of parental education, childhood living conditions and adversities with daily smoking in early adulthood and to analyse the effect of the respondent's own education, main economic activity, and current family structure on these associations. The study is based on a representative two-stage cluster sample (N = 1894, participation rate 79%) of young adults aged 18-29, in 2000, in Finland. The outcome measure is daily smoking. Parental smoking and the respondent's own education had the strongest effects on daily smoking. If both parents of the respondent were smokers, then the respondent was most likely to be a smoker too (for men OR (odds ratio) = 3.01, for women OR = 2.41 after all adjustments). Young adults in the lowest educational category had a much higher risk of daily smoking than those in the highest category (OR = 5.88 for women, 4.48 for men). For women parental divorce (OR = 2.31) and current family structure also determined daily smoking. Parental education had a strong gradient in daily smoking and the effect appeared to be mediated largely by the respondent's own educational level. Childhood living conditions are strong determinants of daily smoking. Much of their influence seems to be mediated through current living conditions, which are also determined by childhood conditions. Determinants of smoking behaviour are developed throughout the life course. The findings stress the importance of the respondent's education and parental smoking as determinants of smoking behaviour. Our results support the notion that intervention on smoking initiation and cessation should be considered throughout the life course. Parental involvement in fostering non-smoking would be important.

  9. Changes of the climate induced by trace gases. Current state of research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H

    1987-02-01

    Any attempt of predicting climatic changes is a very different task, because it requires good insight into and knowledge of a complex system whose components respond very differently in terms of time. Hence there remain many uncertainties in efforts towards 'predicting' climatic changes considering the enhancing greenhouse effect. As with all environmental problems, the best reaction is to conserve resources, and systematically explore the interactions. Reducing the CO/sub 2/, for instance, will be highly awarded. (orig./HSCH).

  10. Global climate change: a synopsis of current activities in the Office of Fossil Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    South, D.W.; Kane, R.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on the US DOE Office of Fossil Energy investigation and monitoring of several aspects of global climate change as it relates to fossil fuels. The paper consists of the overheads from the presentation. The topics of this paper include greenhouse gases from fossil fuels, scientific uncertainties, legislation and protocols, mitigation strategies and policies, energy and economic impacts, and the role of clean coal technologies and fossil fuels in global climate change

  11. Present condition of ESCO business for carrying out climate change countermeasures in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murakoshi, Chiharu; Nakagami, Hidetoshi

    2003-01-01

    The ESCO business in Japan started in 1996. Although there was only one ESCO as of 1996, there are now more than 20 companies and entries from utilities have also performed positively. The market scale of ESCO business was 556 million Euro in 2001, and is expected to grow 50% in 2002. The Japanese government drew up the action plan to cope with COP3 and planned to reduce final energy consumption by 57 million kL-oil equivalent by 2010, of which 1 million kL is expected to be reduced by ESCO business activity. In order to achieve this target, the government contributed the subsidy of 294 million Euro to energy efficiency retrofit for buildings in 2002. In the private sector, the Japan Association of Energy Service Companies (JAESCO) was established in 1999. It has matured into an organization containing 110 members, and a number of new members are currently joining. ESCO business introduction in local authorities has made less progress. However, many local authorities are considering introduction of ESCO schemes. By 2010, when all local authorities will have implemented their climate change countermeasures, it is possible that such programs will grow to be the largest ESCO market. It is expected that the ESCO business in Japan will grow greatly from now on. However, there are also many problems to be solved for introduction. We describe the current situation of the ESCO business in Japan, governmental support for energy efficiency including ESCO business, stance of local authorities, and future market barriers

  12. The regional species richness and genetic diversity of Arctic vegetation reflect both past glaciations and current climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stewart, L.; Alsos, Inger G.; Bay, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Aim The Arctic has experienced marked climatic differences between glacial and interglacial periods and is now subject to a rapidly warming climate. Knowledge of the effects of historical processes on current patterns of diversity may aid predictions of the responses of vegetation to future climate...... species richness of the vascular plant flora of 21 floristic provinces and examined local species richness in 6215 vegetation plots distributed across the Arctic. We assessed levels of genetic diversity inferred from amplified fragment length polymorphism variation across populations of 23 common Arctic...... size compared to the models of bryophyte and lichen richness. Main conclusion Our study suggests that imprints of past glaciations in Arctic vegetation diversity patterns at the regional scale are still detectable today. Since Arctic vegetation is still limited by post-glacial migration lag...

  13. Climate related trends and meteorological conditions in European Arctic region - Porsanger fjord, Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieszyńska, Agata; Stramska, Małgorzata

    2017-04-01

    Climate change has significant effect on the Arctic environment, where global trends are amplified. In this study, we have focused on the Porsanger fjord, located in European Arctic in the coastal region of the Barents Sea. We have analyzed climate related trends and meteorological condititions in the area of interest. Meteorological data included wind speed and direction, air temperature (AT) and precipitation from Era-Interim reanalysis (1986-2015) and local observations (1996-2015) from Lakselv (L, fjord's head area) and Honningsvaag (H - fjord's exit area). Our results confirm that this region is undergoing climate change related warming, which is indicated by rising air temperatures. Based on long-term reanalysis data, estimated trends for air temperature (AT) in Porsanger fjord are: 0.0536 °C year-1 at fjord's exit and 0.0428 °C year-1 at fjord's head. The results show that climate change does not seem to have a significant effect on long-term changes of wind speed and precipitation in the Porsanger fjord. Statistical analysis underlined significant spatial variability of meteorological conditions inside the fjord. For example, there are large differences in the annual cycle of AT with monthly mean January and July values of -8.4 and 12.6 °C in L and -2.5 and 10.1 °C in H. Dominant wind directions in Lakselv are S and SSE, while in Honningsvaag S and SSW directions prevail. Strong wind events (above 12 m s-1) are more frequent in H than in L. Annual cycle is characterized by stronger winds in winter and seasonality of wind direction. Precipitation for a given location can change by about 50% between years and varies spatially. Synoptic scale and within day variability are extremely intense in the area of interest. Air temperature and wind speed and direction can change dramatically in hours. In addition, regular patterns of the daily cycle of AT have different intensity in L and H. It is interesting to note that in spring/summer season, the daily cycle of

  14. Assessing the impacts of climate change in Mediterranean catchments under conditions of data scarcity - The Gaza case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gampe, David; Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. While there is scientific consensus that climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean regions are presently occurring and are projected to amplify in the future, very little knowledge is available about the quantification of these changes, which is hampered by a lack of suitable and cost effective hydrological monitoring and modeling systems. The European FP7-project CLIMB is aiming to analyze climate induced changes on the hydrology of the Mediterranean Basins by investigating seven test sites located in the countries Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Gaza and Egypt. CLIMB employs a combination of novel geophysical field monitoring concepts, remote sensing techniques and integrated hydrologic modeling to improve process descriptions and understanding and to quantify existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. One of those seven sites is the Gaza Strip, located in the Eastern Mediterranean and part of the Palestinian Autonomous Area, covers an area of 365km² with a length of 35km and 6 to 12km in width. Elevation ranges from sea level up to 104m in the East of the test site. Mean annual precipitation varies from 235mm in the South to 420mm in the North of the area. The inter annual variability of rainfall and the rapid population growth in an highly agricultural used area represent the major challenges in this area. The physically based Water Simulation Model WaSiM Vers. 2 (Schulla & Jasper (1999)) is setup to model current and projected future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as common to many Mediterranean catchments. The lack of available measured input data hampers the calibration of the model setup and the validation of model outputs. WaSiM was driven with meteorological forcing taken from 4

  15. Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaac, Morna; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000-2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO 2 emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO 2 emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change

  16. Topsoil moisture mapping using geostatistical techniques under different Mediterranean climatic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Murillo, J F; Hueso-González, P; Ruiz-Sinoga, J D

    2017-10-01

    Soil mapping has been considered as an important factor in the widening of Soil Science and giving response to many different environmental questions. Geostatistical techniques, through kriging and co-kriging techniques, have made possible to improve the understanding of eco-geomorphologic variables, e.g., soil moisture. This study is focused on mapping of topsoil moisture using geostatistical techniques under different Mediterranean climatic conditions (humid, dry and semiarid) in three small watersheds and considering topography and soil properties as key factors. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with a resolution of 1×1m was derived from a topographical survey as well as soils were sampled to analyzed soil properties controlling topsoil moisture, which was measured during 4-years. Afterwards, some topography attributes were derived from the DEM, the soil properties analyzed in laboratory, and the topsoil moisture was modeled for the entire watersheds applying three geostatistical techniques: i) ordinary kriging; ii) co-kriging considering as co-variate topography attributes; and iii) co-kriging ta considering as co-variates topography attributes and gravel content. The results indicated topsoil moisture was more accurately mapped in the dry and semiarid watersheds when co-kriging procedure was performed. The study is a contribution to improve the efficiency and accuracy of studies about the Mediterranean eco-geomorphologic system and soil hydrology in field conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Climatic conditions as a risk factor in canine gastric dilatation-volvulus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennler, R; Koch, D; Hassig, M; Howard, J; Montavon, P M

    2005-01-01

    Canine acute gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition of multifactorial origin. The risk of developing GDV is influenced by a variety of factors, including breed, age, gender, temperament, diet and management. A relationship between seasonal variations and the frequency of GDV has been previously documented although no association was found with any specific climatic event. Variables in weather conditions within a defined geographic region were investigated in a retrospective study of 287 client-owned dogs diagnosed with GDV between 1992 and 1999. Monthly incidences were evaluated and differences in atmospheric temperature, humidity and pressure between days in which GDV cases were observed and days in which no case was presented were examined. Although temperature was significantly associated with the occurrence of GDV, the difference in temperatures between days with and days without GDV cases was so small that it is unlikely to be of clinical relevance. Moreover, no significant association was found between GDV occurrence and atmospheric pressure or humidity, and a seasonal variation in GDV incidence was not observed.

  18. Analyses of phase change materials’ efficiency in warm-summer humid continental climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratnieks, J.; Gendelis, S.; Jakovics, A.; Bajare, D.

    2017-10-01

    The usage of phase change materials (PCMs) is a way to store excess energy produced during the hot time of the day and release it during the night thereby reducing the overheating problem. While, in Latvian climate conditions overheating is not a big issue in traditional buildings since it happens only a couple of weeks per year air conditioners must still be installed to maintain thermal comfort. The need for cooling in recently built office buildings with large window area can increase significantly. It is therefore of great interest if the thermal comfort conditions can be maintained by PCMs alone or with reduced maximum power of installed cooling systems. Our initial studies show that if the test building is well-insulated (necessary to reduce heat loss in winter), phase change material is not able to solidify fast enough during the relatively short night time. To further investigate the problem various experimental setups with two different phase change materials were installed in test buildings. Experimental results are compared with numerical modelling made in software COMSOL Multiphysics. The effectiveness of PCM using different situations is widely analysed.

  19. Current Conditions Risk Assessment for the 300-FF-5 Groundwater Operable Unit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miley, Terri B.; Bunn, Amoret L.; Napier, Bruce A.; Peterson, Robert E.; Becker, James M.

    2007-11-01

    This report updates a baseline risk assessment for the 300 Area prepared in 1994. The update includes consideration of changes in contaminants of interest and in the environment that have occurred during the period of interim remedial action, i.e., 1996 to the present, as well as the sub-regions, for which no initial risk assessments have been conducted. In 1996, a record of decision (ROD) stipulated interim remedial action for groundwater affected by releases from 300 Area sources, as follows: (a) continued monitoring of groundwater that is contaminated above health-based levels to ensure that concentrations continue to decrease, and (b) institutional controls to ensure that groundwater use is restricted to prevent unacceptable exposure to groundwater contamination. In 2000, the groundwater beneath the two outlying sub-regions was added to the operable unit. In 2001, the first 5-year review of the ROD found that the interim remedy and remedial action objectives were still appropriate, although the review called for additional characterization activities. This report includes a current conditions baseline ecological and human health risk assessment using maximum concentrations in the environmental media of the 300-FF-5 Operable Unit and downstream conditions at the City of Richland, Washington. The scope for this assessment includes only current measured environmental concentrations and current use scenarios. Future environmental concentrations and future land uses are not considered in this assessment.

  20. How to adapt winemaking practices to modified grape composition under climate change conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvie Dequin

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Aim: In the context of climate change, adaptation of enological practices and implementation of novel techniques are major challenges for winemakers. The potential interventions are linked in particular with the alcohol content and the global acidity of wine. Here, we review current microbiological and technological strategies to overcome such issues. Methods and results: Reducing ethanol concentration poses a number of technical and scientific challenges, in particular looking for specific yeast strains with lower alcohol yield. Several non-genetically modified organism (GMO strains – S. cerevisiae or interspecific hybrids of the Saccharomyces genus – have yet been developed using different strategies, and some of them allow decreasing the final ethanol concentration by up to 1%. Several membrane-based technologies have also been developed not only to reduce the ethanol content of wines but also to increase the acidity and more generally to control the wine pH. New strategies are also proposed to improve the control of winemaking, especially the management of alcoholic fermentation of sugar-rich musts and the control of oxidation during the process. Conclusion: Reducing ethanol of wines  and increasing their acidity are good examples of novel techniques  of interest in the context of climate change. Other strategies are still under study to adapt winemaking practices to changes in grape composition. Significance and impact of the study: [Membrane-based technologies can be used to reduce the ethanol content of wines or to increase the acidity.  Microbiological strategies will also be soon available for winemakers.

  1. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathewson, Paul D; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A; Briscoe, Natalie J; Kearney, Michael; Yahn, Jeremiah M; Porter, Warren P

    2017-03-01

    How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

  2. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T.; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.

    2017-01-01

    How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

  3. Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

    2008-12-01

    Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from

  4. An ensemble prediction approach to weekly Dengue cases forecasting based on climatic and terrain conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sougata Deb

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Dengue fever has been one of the most concerning endemic diseases of recent times. Every year, 50-100 million people get infected by the dengue virus across the world. Historically, it has been most prevalent in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands. In recent years, frequent dengue epidemics have started occurring in Latin America as well. This study focused on assessing the impact of different short and long-term lagged climatic predictors on dengue cases. Additionally, it assessed the impact of building an ensemble model using multiple time series and regression models, in improving prediction accuracy. Materials and Methods: Experimental data were based on two Latin American cities, viz. San Juan (Puerto Rico and Iquitos (Peru. Due to weather and geographic differences, San Juan recorded higher dengue incidences than Iquitos. Using lagged cross-correlations, this study confirmed the impact of temperature and vegetation on the number of dengue cases for both cities, though in varied degrees and time lags. An ensemble of multiple predictive models using an elaborate set of derived predictors was built and validated. Results: The proposed ensemble prediction achieved a mean absolute error of 21.55, 4.26 points lower than the 25.81 obtained by a standard negative binomial model. Changes in climatic conditions and urbanization were found to be strong predictors as established empirically in other researches. Some of the predictors were new and informative, which have not been explored in any other relevant studies yet. Discussion and Conclusions: Two original contributions were made in this research. Firstly, a focused and extensive feature engineering aligned with the mosquito lifecycle. Secondly, a novel covariate pattern-matching based prediction approach using past time series trend of the predictor variables. Increased accuracy of the proposed model over the benchmark model proved the appropriateness of the analytical approach

  5. Combined installation of electric and heat supply for climatic conditions of Iraq

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaisi, Osama Al; Sidenkov, D. V.

    2017-11-01

    Electricity, heating and cooling are the three main components that make up the energy consumption base in residential, commercial and public buildings around the world. Demand for energy and fuel costs are constantly growing. Combined cooling, heating and power generation or trigeneration can be a promising solution to such a problem, providing an efficient, reliable, flexible, competitive and less harmful alternative to existing heat and cold supply systems. In this paper, scheme of the tri-generation plant on non-aqueous working substances is considered as an installation of a locally centralized electro-heat and cold supply of a typical residential house in a hot climate. The scheme of the combined installation of electro-heat (cold) supply consisted of the vapor power plant and heat pump system on low-boiling working substance for local consumers under the climatic conditions of Iraq is presented. The possibility of using different working substances in the thermodynamic cycles of these units, which will provide better efficiency of such tri-generation systems is shown. The calculations of steam turbine cycles and heat pump part on the selected working substances are conducted. It is proposed to use heat exchangers of plate type as the main exchangers in the combined processing. The developed method of thermal-hydraulic calculation of heat exchangers implemented in MathCad, which allows to evaluate the efficiency of plants of this type using the ε - NTU method. For the selected working substances of the steam part the optimal temperature of heat supply to the steam generator is determined. The results of thermodynamic and technical-economic analysis of the application of various working substances in the “organic” Rankine cycle of the steam turbine unit and the heat pump system of the heat and cold supply system are presented.

  6. Nitrous oxide emissions from manure handling - effects of storage conditions and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sommer, S.G.; Petersen, S.O.

    2002-01-01

    Stored animal manure and manure applied in the field contributes an estimated 20% to the total anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 0) in Denmark. Manure composition, handling and climatic conditions may all influence the emission level during storage, but there are relatively few experimental data on emissions of N 2 0 from manure management, including animal houses, slurry stores and manure heaps. Among animal housing systems, very high emission rates have been found with pig deep lifter, and N 2 0 emissions are further stimulated by mechanical mixing. Slurry stores are anaerobic, but a recent study showed that N 2 0 can be produced in porous surface covers such as natural surface crusts, straw or leca pebbles, while no N 2 0 was emitted from uncovered slurry. The emission was significantly related to the water balance, i.e., the difference between evaporation and rain, during dry periods; during wet periods no N 2 0 was emitted. For solid manure, previous studies have typically found that less than 1 % of total N is emitted as N 2 0. Nitrous oxide may be produced throughout the manure heap, provided an environment with both aerobic and anaerobic pockets exists. Profiles from an experimental heap indicated that most of the N 2 0 emitted from solid manure was produced near the surface of the heap. Increasing density appears to stimulate N 2 0 emissions up to a point, where the air exchange is significantly impeded. The IPCC methodology calculates N 2 0 emissions from manure on the basis of total N content (that is, on the basis of volume) and climate region only. Possibly, estimates of N 2 0 emissions from slurry stores could be improved by considering surface area, ammonium content and water balance as input variables. Emissions from solid manure heaps should consider surface area and the potential for composting, as reflected in bulk density and moisture content. (au)

  7. Assessing the metrics of climate change. Current methods and future possibilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuglestveit, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Godal, Odd; Sausen, Robert; Shine, Keith P.; Skodvin, Tora

    2001-07-01

    With the principle of comprehensiveness embedded in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Art. 3), a multi-gas abatement strategy with emphasis also on non-CO2 greenhouse gases as targets for reduction and control measures has been adopted in the international climate regime. In the Kyoto Protocol, the comprehensive approach is made operative as the aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of six specified greenhouse gases or groups of gases (Art. 3). With this operationalisation, the emissions of a set of greenhouse gases with very different atmospheric lifetimes and radiative properties are transformed into one common unit - CO2 equivalents. This transformation is based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP) index, which in turn is based on the concept of radiative forcing. The GWP metric and its application in policy making has been debated, and several other alternative concepts have been suggested. In this paper, we review existing and alternative metrics of climate change, with particular emphasis on radiative forcing and GWPs, in terms of their scientific performance. This assessment focuses on questions such as the climate impact (end point) against which gases are weighted; the extent to which and how temporality is included, both with regard to emission control and with regard to climate impact; how cost issues are dealt with; and the sensitivity of the metrics to various assumptions. It is concluded that the radiative forcing concept is a robust and useful metric of the potential climatic impact of various agents and that there are prospects for improvement by weighing different forcings according to their effectiveness. We also find that although the GWP concept is associated with serious shortcomings, it retains advantages over any of the proposed alternatives in terms of political feasibility. Alternative metrics, however, make a significant contribution to addressing important issues, and this contribution should be taken

  8. Assessing the metrics of climate change. Current methods and future possibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuglestveit, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Godal, Odd; Sausen, Robert; Shine, Keith P.; Skodvin, Tora

    2001-01-01

    With the principle of comprehensiveness embedded in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Art. 3), a multi-gas abatement strategy with emphasis also on non-CO2 greenhouse gases as targets for reduction and control measures has been adopted in the international climate regime. In the Kyoto Protocol, the comprehensive approach is made operative as the aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of six specified greenhouse gases or groups of gases (Art. 3). With this operationalisation, the emissions of a set of greenhouse gases with very different atmospheric lifetimes and radiative properties are transformed into one common unit - CO2 equivalents. This transformation is based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP) index, which in turn is based on the concept of radiative forcing. The GWP metric and its application in policy making has been debated, and several other alternative concepts have been suggested. In this paper, we review existing and alternative metrics of climate change, with particular emphasis on radiative forcing and GWPs, in terms of their scientific performance. This assessment focuses on questions such as the climate impact (end point) against which gases are weighted; the extent to which and how temporality is included, both with regard to emission control and with regard to climate impact; how cost issues are dealt with; and the sensitivity of the metrics to various assumptions. It is concluded that the radiative forcing concept is a robust and useful metric of the potential climatic impact of various agents and that there are prospects for improvement by weighing different forcings according to their effectiveness. We also find that although the GWP concept is associated with serious shortcomings, it retains advantages over any of the proposed alternatives in terms of political feasibility. Alternative metrics, however, make a significant contribution to addressing important issues, and this contribution should be taken

  9. What incentives to climate change mitigation through harvested wood products in the current french policy framework? (Summary). Climate Report no. 47

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deheza, Mariana; N'Goran, Carmen; Bellassen, Valentin

    2014-09-01

    Beyond the important role that forests play in the fight against climate change through the sequestration of carbon in their biomass, wood products also contribute to climate change through three channels: - Material substitution: the manufacturing of wood products being less energy intensive allows to avoid carbon emissions from the processing of other alternative materials (eg. concrete, steel, etc); - Energy substitution: achieved by the generation of energy from wood combustion replacing other fossil fuels. - Carbon sequestration in the wood products: wood products sequester carbon during their whole life span until their decomposition. This Climate Report identifies French policies that have an impact on climate change mitigation by wood products through these three mitigation channels. Our analysis asserts that similarly to the context at the EU level, the current national policy framework incentives are mostly directed to the 'energy wood' sector. These incentives include fiscal and financial instruments such as: - The heat fund ('fonds chaleur'), which subsidizes the production of renewable heat particularly from biomass; - The zero interest rate eco-loans ('eco-pret a taux zero') and the Sustainable development tax credit ('credit d'impot developpement durable (CIDD)') which partly subsidize wood heating; - Reduced VAT on renewable heat purchases. The use of wood as a material is currently less encouraged, at least on the financial side: the few devices that support it are rarely binding and mobilize limited resources. Future measures planned under the National Action Plan for the forest-based sector and the upcoming law for the future of agriculture and forestry ('Loi d'avenir pour l'agriculture et la foret') could slightly re-balance this situation. (authors)

  10. Childhood conditions and current physical performance among non-institutionalized individuals aged 50+ in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, Galit

    2016-12-01

    Adverse socioeconomic conditions in childhood have been previously linked with high risk of various health conditions. However, the association with future physical function has been less studied. Hand grip strength and chair-rising time are objective measures of physical capability indicating current and future health outcomes. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that perceived socio-economic status in childhood is related to current measures of physical function, among Israeli participants of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe project. The study included 2300 participants aged 50 years or older (mean age 68 ± 10; 56 % women). Generalized linear regression models were used to examine the associations of childhood wealth and number of books in residence with grip strength and time to complete five rises from a chair. Logistic regression models were used to assess the relationships between the early life conditions and the ability to perform the physical tests. Adjustment was made for current income or household wealth, and for demographic, anthropometric, health, and life-style measures. Being wealthy and having a large number of books at home in childhood was associated with a stronger hand grip and a better chair-rise test performance. These associations were more robust in women compared to men, and persisted after adjustment for potential covariates. In addition, childhood wealth and number of books were associated with lower risk of being unable to perform the tests. Thus, early-life programming may contribute to physical function indicators in mid- and late-life.

  11. Current and historical climate signatures to deconstructed tree species richness pattern in South America - doi: 10.4025/actascibiolsci.v35i2.14202

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Paiva Silva

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to investigate the importance of present and historical climate as determinants of current species richness pattern of forestry trees in South America. The study predicted the distribution of 217 tree species using Maxent models, and calculated the potential species richness pattern, which was further deconstructed based on range sizes and modeled against current and historical climates predictors using Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR analyses. The current climate explains more of the wide-ranging species richness patterns than that of the narrow-ranging species, while the historical climate explained an equally small amount of variance for both narrow-and-wide ranging tree species richness patterns. The richness deconstruction based on range size revealed that the influences of current and historical climate hypotheses underlying patterns in South American tree species richness differ from those found in the Northern Hemisphere. Notably, the historical climate appears to be an important determinant of richness only in regions with marked climate changes and proved Pleistocenic refuges, while the current climate predicts the species richness across those Neotropical regions, with non-evident refuges in the Last Glacial Maximum. Thus, this study's analyses show that these climate hypotheses are complementary to explain the South American tree species richness. Keywords: climate changes, glacial refuges, water-energy availability, GWR analysis, spatial non-stationarity

  12. Tidal Stream Generators, current state and potential opportunities for condition monitoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kappatos, Vassilios; Georgoulas, George; Avdelidis, Nicolas

    2016-01-01

    Tidal power industry has made significant progress towards commercialization over the past decade. Significant investments from sector leaders, strong technical progress and positive media coverage have established the credibility of this specific renewable energy source. However, its progress...... is being retarded by operation and maintenance problems, which results in very low operational availability times, as low as 25 %. This paper presents a literature review of the current state of tidal device operators as well as some commercial tidal turbine condition monitoring solutions. Furthermore......, an overview is given of the global tidal activity status (tidal energy market size and geography), the key industry activity and the regulations-standards related with tidal energy industry. Therefore, the main goal of this paper is to provide a bird’s view of the current status of the tidal power industry...

  13. Estimation of Operating Condition of Appliances Using Circuit Current Data on Electric Distribution Boards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwafune, Yumiko; Ogimoto, Kazuhiko; Yagita, Yoshie

    The Energy management systems (EMS) on demand sides are expected as a method to enhance the capability of supply and demand balancing of a power system under the anticipated penetration of renewable energy generation such as Photovoltaics (PV). Elucidation of energy consumption structure in a building is one of important elements for realization of EMS and contributes to the extraction of potential energy saving. In this paper, we propose the estimation method of operating condition of household appliances using circuit current data on an electric distribution board. Circuit current data are broken down by their shape using a self-organization map method and aggregated by appliance based on customers' information of appliance possessed. Proposed method is verified using residential energy consumption measurement survey data.

  14. What's down below? Current and potential future applications of geophysical techniques to identify subsurface permafrost conditions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, T. A.; Bjella, K.; Campbell, S. W.

    2013-12-01

    For infrastructure design, operations, and maintenance requirements in the North the ability to accurately and efficiently detect the presence (or absence) of ground ice in permafrost terrains is a serious challenge. Ground ice features including ice wedges, thermokarst cave-ice, and segregation ice are present in a variety of spatial scales and patterns. Currently, most engineering applications use borehole logging and sampling to extrapolate conditions at the point scale. However, there is high risk of over or under estimating the presence of frozen or unfrozen features when relying on borehole information alone. In addition, boreholes are costly, especially for planning linear structures like roads or runways. Predicted climate warming will provide further challenges for infrastructure development and transportation operations where permafrost degradation occurs. Accurately identifying the subsurface character in permafrost terrains will allow engineers and planners to cost effectively create novel infrastructure designs to withstand the changing environment. There is thus a great need for a low cost rapidly deployable, spatially extensive means of 'measuring' subsurface conditions. Geophysical measurements, both terrestrial and airborne, have strong potential to revolutionize our way of mapping subsurface conditions. Many studies in continuous and discontinuous permafrost have used geophysical measurements to identify discrete features and repeatable patterns in the subsurface. The most common measurements include galvanic and capacitive coupled resistivity, ground penetrating radar, and multi frequency electromagnetic induction techniques. Each of these measurements has strengths, weaknesses, and limitations. By combining horizontal geophysical measurements, downhole geophysics, multispectral remote sensing images, LiDAR measurements, and soil and vegetation mapping we can start to assemble a holistic view of how surface conditions and standoff measurements

  15. Triggering of frequent turbidity currents in Monterey Canyon and the role of antecedent conditioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clare, M. A.; Rosenberger, K. J.; Talling, P.; Barry, J.; Maier, K. L.; Parsons, D. R.; Simmons, S.; Gales, J. A.; Gwiazda, R.; McGann, M.; Paull, C. K.

    2017-12-01

    Turbidity currents pose a hazard to seafloor infrastructure, deliver organic carbon and nutrients to deep-sea communities, and form economically important deposits. Thus, determining the tempo of turbidity current activity and whether different triggers result in different flow modes is important. Identification of specific triggers is challenging, however, because most studies of turbidity currents are based on their deposits. New direct monitoring of flows and environmental conditions provides the necessary temporal constraints to identify triggering mechanisms. The Coordinated Canyon Experiment (CCE) in Monterey Canyon, offshore California is the most ambitious attempt yet to measure turbidity flows and their triggers. The CCE provides precise constraint on flow timing, initiation, and potential triggers based on measurements at 7 different instrumented moorings and 2 metocean buoys. Fifteen turbidity flows were measured in 18 months; with recorded velocities >8 m/s and run-outs of up to 50 km. Presence of live estuarine foraminifera within moored sediment traps suggests that that flows originated in water depths of Turbidity currents are thought to be triggered by processes including earthquakes, river floods and storm waves. Here we analyse seismicity, local river discharge, internal tides, wave height, direction and period data. We identify no clear control of any of these individual variables on flow timing. None of the recorded earthquakes (

  16. The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tshepo S. Masipa

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to examine the impact of climate change on food security in South Africa. For this purpose, the article adopted a desktop study approach. Previous studies, reports, surveys and policies on climate change and food (insecurity. From this paper’s analysis, climate change presents a high risk to food security in sub-Saharan countries from crop production to food distribution and consumption. In light of this, it is found that climate change, particularly global warming, affects food security through food availability, accessibility, utilisation and affordability. To mitigate these risks, there is a need for an integrated policy approach to protect the arable land against global warming. The argument advanced in this article is that South Africa’s ability to adapt and protect its food items depends on the understanding of risks and the vulnerability of various food items to climate change. However, this poses a challenge in developing countries, including South Africa, because such countries have weak institutions and limited access to technology. Another concern is a wide gap between the cost of adapting and the necessary financial support from the government. There is also a need to invest in technologies that will resist risks on food systems.

  17. Condition for the occurrence of phase slip centers in superconducting nanowires under applied current or voltage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michotte, S.; Mátéfi-Tempfli, Stefan; Piraux, L.

    2004-01-01

    Experimental results on the phase slip process in superconducting lead nanowires are presented under two different experimental conditions: constant applied current or constant voltage. Based on these experiments we established a simple model which gives us the condition of the appearance of phase...... slip centers in a quasi-one-dimensional wire. The competition between two relaxations times (relaxation time of the absolute value of the order parameter τ and relaxation time of the phase of the order parameter in the phase slip center τ) governs the phase slip process. Phase slips, as periodic...... oscillations in time of the order parameter, are only possible if the gradient of the phase grows faster than the value of the order parameter in the phase slip center, or equivalently if τ≤ τ....

  18. Anti-cyclic regulation of the Ukrainian economy under current conditions of the international markets volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Satsyk

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available In the article there are considered the theoretical and methodological basis of anti-cyclic regulation of the countries’ economy under conditions of the world economy globalization. It suggests the analysis of practices of implementing of anti-cyclic policy in highly developed states, its defining features and directions under current global financial and economic crisis. There has been researched a practical toolkit of economic cycles diagnostics and cyclic fluctuations of total business activity in Ukraine based on this study. There are suggested recommendations concerning the formation of the effective mechanism of anti-cyclic regulation of the Ukrainian economy.

  19. A Model based Examination of Conditions for Ignition of Turbidity Currents on Slopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, A. J.; Krishna, G.

    2009-12-01

    Turbidity currents form a major mechanism for the movement of sediment in the natural environment. Self-accelerating turbidity currents over continental slopes are of considerable scientific and engineering interest due to their role as agents for submarine sediment transportation from the shelf to the seabed. Such currents are called ignitive provided they eventually reach a catastrophic state as acceleration results in high sediment loads due to erosion of the sloping bed. A numerical model, which treats the fluid and the particles as two separate phases, is applied to investigate the effects of particle size, initial flow friction velocity and mild bed slope on the ignitive condition. Laboratory experimental data have been included as part of the analysis for qualitative comparison purposes. Ignition for the smallest of the three selected sizes (0.21mm) of medium sand typical of Florida beaches was found to depend on the initial conditions at the head of the slope as determined by the pressure gradient. Bed slope seemed to be of secondary importance. For the two sands with larger grain sizes (0.28mm and 0.35mm) the slope was found to play a more important role when compared to the initial pressure gradient. For a given pressure gradient, increasing the slope increased the likelihood of self-acceleration. It is concluded that in general ignition cannot be defined merely in terms of positive values of the velocity gradient and the sediment flux gradient along the slope. Depending on particle size the initial pressure gradient can also play a role. For the selected initial conditions (grain size, pressure gradient and bed slope), out of the 54 combinations tested, all except three satisfied the Knapp-Bagnold criterion for auto-suspension irrespective of whether the turbid current was ignitive or non-ignitive. In all 54 cases the current was found to erode the bed. Further use of the model will require accommodation of wider ranges of sediment size and bed density

  20. Performances of air source heat pump system for a kind of mal-defrost phenomenon appearing in moderate climate conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, W.; Feng, Y.C.; Zhu, J.H.; Li, L.T.; Guo, Q.C.; Lu, W.P.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Mal-defrost performances of ASHP in moderate environment are investigated. ► The system COP decreases to 2.3 under environment temperature of 7.9 °C. ► The decrease of the ASHP heating capacity can get to 43.4%. ► The origins of this special mal-defrost phenomenon were discussed. ► Suggestions were proposed to modify the current defrosting control strategies. - Abstract: To quantify the performance drop of the air source heat pump (ASHP) system under a special kind of mal-defrost phenomenon appearing in moderate climate conditions, a field test was conducted for 8 days at the initial stage of a heating season in Beijing, China. The mal-defrost was found with the more than 60% frosted area of the outdoor heat exchanger after the system running 5 days. During this frosting period, the system COP was significantly degraded, only 2.3 under an environment temperature of 7.9 °C. Comparing the test data before and after frosting, it was found that the mal-defrost decreased the COP up to 40.4% and the heating capacity to 43.4%. Such low energy efficiency continued quite a long time until the defrost control was started up manually by the authors. After defrosting, the COP reclaimed to the normal level of 5.0. The origins of this special mal-defrost phenomenon were discussed. And some suggestions were proposed to modify the current defrosting control strategy, which were helpful to avoid the mal-defrost problem in the current ASHP system and therefore improve the system performances

  1. Current and projected water demand and water availability estimates under climate change scenarios in the Weyib River basin in Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

    2017-07-01

    This study intended to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of current and projected water demand and water availability under climate change scenarios in Weyib River basin, Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia. Future downscaled climate variables from three Earth System Models under the three RCP emission scenarios were inputted into ArcSWAT hydrological model to simulate different components of water resources of a basin whereas current and projected human and livestock population of the basin is considered to estimate the total annual water demand for various purposes. Results revealed that the current total annual water demand of the basin is found to be about 289 Mm3, and this has to increase by 83.47% after 15 years, 200.67% after 45 years, and 328.78% after 75 years by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period water demand mainly due to very rapid increasing population (40.81, 130.80, and 229.12% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively) and climatic variability. The future average annual total water availability in the basin is observed to be increased by ranging from 15.04 to 21.61, 20.08 to 23.34, and 16.21 to 39.53% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time slice, respectively, from base period available water resources (2333.39 Mm3). The current water availability per capita per year of the basin is about 3112.23 m3 and tends to decline ranging from 11.78 to 17.49, 46.02 to 47.45, and 57.18 to 64.34% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period per capita per year water availability. This indicated that there might be possibility to fall the basin under water stress condition in the long term.

  2. Climate Change and water resources: Scenarios of low-flow conditions in the Upper Danube River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mauser, W; Marke, T; Stoeber, S

    2008-01-01

    Global Climate Change will have regional impacts on the water resources and will force water resources managers and farmers to adapt. Both low-flow and its duration are critical hydrological parameters, which strongly influence the state of aquatic ecosystems as well as power production, reservoir management and industry. Impacts of future climate change is analysed using scenarios for the change of meteorological drivers and regional hydrological simulation models. The project GLOWA-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de) develops integrative modelling techniques combining process knowledge from both natural and social sciences to examine the sustainability of regional water systems as well as water management alternatives in the Upper Danube watershed (A = 77000 km 2 ). Special emphasis is given to changes in low-flow condition. DANUBIA describes the regional water cycle both physical and spatially distributed. It consists of a collection of tightly coupled models, which strictly preserve energy and matter and are not calibrated to maximise their overall predictive abilities. The paper demonstrates that DANUBIA can reproduce the daily discharge for the time period from 1971-2003 with a Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient of 0.84 (gauge Achleiten). Based on a statistical climate simulator 12 realisations of the IPCC A1B climate scenario were used to investigate impacts of climate change during the simulation period of 2011-2060. The change in discharge and frequency of occurrences of low-flow in the watershed for the scenario ensemble were analysed for the outlet gauge. The analysis shows that strong changes were simulated in the frequency of occurrences of low-flow conditions. The changing climate gradually reduces a 50-years NM7Q discharge of today to less than half of its discharge in the year 2060. These results clearly indicate that the expected climate change will strongly alter the low-flow conditions in the Upper Danube watershed.

  3. Climate Ocean Modeling on Parallel Computers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, P.; Cheng, B. N.; Chao, Y.

    1998-01-01

    Ocean modeling plays an important role in both understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting future climate change. However, modeling the ocean circulation at various spatial and temporal scales is a very challenging computational task.

  4. Bora-induced currents corresponding to different synoptic conditions above the Adriatic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Beg Paklar

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available The Bora wind field is characterised by strong vorticity and divergence. Several numerical experiments, in which an oceanographic model was forced with northeasterly winds having climatological alongshore variability, were performed in order to study the influence of spatial variability in the bora wind field on the surface currents in the northern Adriatic. Numerical model results showed that during bora episodes with lower speeds and fast offshore decay surface currents along transect Rovinj - Po River are predominantly in the downwind direction. On the other hand, during bora episodes with strong intensity and slow offshore decay, a cyclonic gyre due to the pronounced bora alongshore variability is formed in the northernmost part of the Adriatic Sea and the studied transect is influenced by the counter currents. Moreover, bora having a high speed and a short offshore range produces the same effect in the eastern part of the Rovinj - Po River transect as low-speed bora characterised by slow offshore decay. Eulerian current measurements performed in the northern Adriatic during bora episodes characterised by different synoptic conditions supported the numerical model findings. Surface currents during the bora episode of 8-11 February 1984 were directed downwind, whereas during the episode of 12-19 February 1984 they were directed upwind. The first episode was characterised by a deep bora layer with cyclonic activity over the western Mediterranean and Genoa Bay, whereas the second one was accompanied by temperature inversion and a southwesterly tropospheric wind above a shallow bora layer. According to the hydraulic theory developed by Smith (1985, an observed descent of isentropes during the second bora episode led to the stronger acceleration in the bora layer and its larger offshore extent. Different offshore bora decays during studied events were confirmed by a comparison of the wind data originating from the meteorological stations

  5. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada-Contreras, Israel; Equihua, Miguel; Laborde, Javier; Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

  6. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species. PMID:27732622

  7. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israel Estrada-Contreras

    Full Text Available Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13. The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14. Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

  8. Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Perez, Edmundo

    : climate change, elasticity of substitution between renewable and fossil energy and three different sources of technological uncertainty (i.e. R&D returns, innovation propensity and technological transferability). The performance of eight different GCF and non-GCF based policy regimes is evaluated in light of various end-of-century climate policy targets. Then I combine traditional scenario discovery data mining methods (Bryant and Lempert, 2010) with high dimensional stacking methods (Suzuki, Stem and Manzocchi, 2015; Taylor et al., 2006; LeBlanc, Ward and Wittels, 1990) to quantitatively characterize the conditions under which it is possible to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and keep temperature rise below 2°C before the end of the century. Finally, I describe a method by which it is possible to combine the results of scenario discovery with high-dimensional stacking to construct a dynamic architecture of low cost technological cooperation. This dynamic architecture consists of adaptive pathways (Kwakkel, Haasnoot and Walker, 2014; Haasnoot et al., 2013) which begin with carbon taxation across both regions as a critical near term action. Then in subsequent phases different forms of cooperation are triggered depending on the unfolding climate and technological conditions. I show that there is no single policy regime that dominates over the entire uncertainty space. Instead I find that it is possible to combine these different architectures into a dynamic framework for technological cooperation across regions that can be adapted to unfolding climate and technological conditions which can lead to a greater rate of success and to lower costs in meeting the end-of-century climate change objectives agreed at the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties. Keywords: international technological change, emerging nations, climate change, technological uncertainties, Green Climate Fund.

  9. E-waste management challenges in Iran: presenting some strategies for improvement of current conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghipour, Hassan; Nowrouz, Parviz; Jafarabadi, Mohamad Asghari; Nazari, Jalil; Hashemi, Ahmad Asl; Mosaferi, Mohammad; Dehghanzadeh, Reza

    2012-11-01

    E-waste is one of the fastest-growing waste streams in Iran, owing to an increase in consumption of electrical and electronic equipment. Nevertheless, as is the case in some other countries, E-waste management has not received sufficient attention. For the successful implementation of any waste management plan (including an E-waste management plan), the availability of sufficient and accurate information on the quantities and composition of the waste generated and on current management conditions is a fundamental prerequisite. At present, in Iran, there is no available and accurate information that describes the characteristics and generation rate of E-waste or the actual practice of management and handling of the waste. For this initial study, eight electronic products were selected for the determination of their E-waste generation rate in the country, and two cities, Tehran and Tabriz, were selected for assessment of the current condition of E-waste management. The study found that the amount of E-waste generation in the country for the eight selected electronic items alone was 115,286, 112,914 and 115,151 metric tons in 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively. Of the types of electronic items included in the study, televisions, with an average of 42.42%, and PCs, with an average of 32.66% accounted for the greatest proportions of the total mass of E-waste generated during 2008-2010. Currently, despite the fact that primary legislation for E-waste management (as part of general waste legislation) exists in Iran, this primary legislation has not yet been implemented. In practical terms, there is no definite policy or plan for the allocation of funds to prepare suitable equipment and facilities for the management and recycling of E-waste at the end of the products' useful life. Proposed improvements in current conditions are identified, first by considering other countries' experiences and then suggesting specific practical policies, rules, and regulations that should be

  10. Flatfish recruitment response to decadal climatic variability and ocean conditions in the eastern Bering Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilderbuer, T. K.; Hollowed, A. B.; Ingraham, W. J.; Spencer, P. D.; Conners, M. E.; Bond, N. A.; Walters, G. E.

    2002-10-01

    This paper provides a retrospective analysis of the relationship of physical oceanography and biology and recruitment of three Eastern Bering Sea flatfish stocks: flathead sole ( Hippoglossoides elassodon), northern rock sole ( Lepidopsetta polyxystra), and arrowtooth flounder ( Atheresthes stomias) for the period 1978-1996. Temporal trends in flatfish production in the Eastern Bering Sea are consistent with the hypothesis that decadal scale climate variability influences marine survival during the early life history period. Density-dependence (spawning stock size) is statistically significant in a Ricker model of flatfish recruitment, which includes environmental terms. Wind-driven advection of flatfish larvae to favorable nursery grounds was also found to coincide with years of above-average recruitment through the use of an ocean surface current simulation model (OSCURS). Ocean forcing of Bristol Bay surface waters during springtime was mostly shoreward (eastward) during the 1980s and seaward (westerly) during the 1990s, corresponding with periods of good and poor recruitment. Distance from shore and water depth at the endpoint of 90-day drift periods (estimated time of settlement) were also found to correspond with flatfish productivity.

  11. Southern Africa’s climate: Current state and recent historical changes

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis, C

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Southern Africa is a predominantly semi-arid region with high rainfall variability, characterised by frequent droughts and floods. It is also widely recognised as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change because of low levels of adaptive...

  12. Groundwater recharge in desert playas: current rates and future effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our results from playas, which are topographic low areas situated in closed-catchments in drylands, indicated that projected climate change in Southwestern USA would have a net positive impact over runon and groundwater recharge beneath playas. Expected increased precipitation variability can cause ...

  13. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF Instrumentation Status: New, Current, and Future)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    JW Voyles

    2008-01-30

    The purpose of this report is to provide a concise but comprehensive overview of Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility instrumentation status. The report is divided into the following four sections: (1) new instrumentation in the process of being acquired and deployed, (2) existing instrumentation and progress on improvements or upgrades, (3) proposed future instrumentation, and (4) Small Business Innovation Research instrument development.

  14. Large Scale Skill in Regional Climate Modeling and the Lateral Boundary Condition Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veljović, K.; Rajković, B.; Mesinger, F.

    2009-04-01

    Several points are made concerning the somewhat controversial issue of regional climate modeling: should a regional climate model (RCM) be expected to maintain the large scale skill of the driver global model that is supplying its lateral boundary condition (LBC)? Given that this is normally desired, is it able to do so without help via the fairly popular large scale nudging? Specifically, without such nudging, will the RCM kinetic energy necessarily decrease with time compared to that of the driver model or analysis data as suggested by a study using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)? Finally, can the lateral boundary condition scheme make a difference: is the almost universally used but somewhat costly relaxation scheme necessary for a desirable RCM performance? Experiments are made to explore these questions running the Eta model in two versions differing in the lateral boundary scheme used. One of these schemes is the traditional relaxation scheme, and the other the Eta model scheme in which information is used at the outermost boundary only, and not all variables are prescribed at the outflow boundary. Forecast lateral boundary conditions are used, and results are verified against the analyses. Thus, skill of the two RCM forecasts can be and is compared not only against each other but also against that of the driver global forecast. A novel verification method is used in the manner of customary precipitation verification in that forecast spatial wind speed distribution is verified against analyses by calculating bias adjusted equitable threat scores and bias scores for wind speeds greater than chosen wind speed thresholds. In this way, focusing on a high wind speed value in the upper troposphere, verification of large scale features we suggest can be done in a manner that may be more physically meaningful than verifications via spectral decomposition that are a standard RCM verification method. The results we have at this point are somewhat

  15. Isotopic evidence for climatic conditions in Southeast Asia at the last glacial maximum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aggarwal, P.K.; Gibson, J.J.; Kulkarni, K.M.; Froehlich, K.

    2002-01-01

    Stable isotope composition of dated groundwater archives from the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Bangladesh trace changes in monsoon conditions, primarily rainout processes between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and present day in southeast Asia. Today, isotope-climate relations are well established by the IAEA/WMO Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation survey which reveals more depleted δ 18 O and δ 2 H for the Pacific Ocean monsoon regime than for the Indian Ocean monsoon regime, primarily due to proximal ocean sources and subdued continental moisture recycling for the latter region. Groundwater archives, reflecting past isotopic composition of precipitation, strongly suggest that this distinction was preserved or slightly enhanced at the time of the LGM, despite an apparent weakening of the summer monsoon and associated rainout processes. Overall, precipitation and moisture recycling, and enhanced continental effects are inferred to be the primary controls on δ 18 O signals in groundwater in southeast Asia. Comparison of groundwater isotope signatures and an ECHAM4 model simulation of the isotopic distribution in precipitation at 21ka reveal similar patterns, but the impacts of increased air mass contributions from high latitudes and reduced Eurasian moisture recycling at the LGM are shown to be potentially greater for the Pacific region than predicted by the model. (author)

  16. Response of tomato cultivars to different organic fertilizers under agro-climatic conditions of mingora, Swat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yousafzai, S.K.; Khan, S.M.; Khan, J.; Khan, S.A.; Hussain, I.; Naz, I.

    2016-01-01

    An experiment was conducted at Agricultural Research Institute (ARI) Mingora, Swat during 2013 to study the effect of different organic fertilizers of tomato cultivars under the agro-climatic conditions of Mingora, Swat. The experiment was conducted in randomized complete block design with split plot arrangements having four treatments with three replications. Almost all the traits showed significant differences for organic fertilizers and varieties, while their interactions had a varied response. The analyzed data showed that poultry manure gave maximum yield (24.65 t ha/sup -1/), followed by FYM (24.38 t ha/sup -1/) and mushroom compost (24.11 t ha/sup -1/ ) while minimum was recorded in plots where no organic fertilizer was used. The results revealed that cultivar, Rio Grand showed maximum number of plant survival percentage (98.33 percent), days to flowering (40.73), number of flowers plant/sup -1/ (6.23), number of fruit plant (25.67), fruit 3 weight (8.84 kg), number of leaves plant/sup -1/ (83.66), fruit size (64.70 cm/sup 3/) and total yield (25.67 t ha/sup -1/ ) in Farm Yard Manure (FYM). Considering the overall performance, it was found that the tomato cultivar Rio Grand was promising for yield and other characters where FYM was applied. (author)

  17. Experimental investigation on a coupled solar still under desert climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boukar, M.; Harmim, A.

    2000-01-01

    Distillation of water is energy intensive, and the use of solar energy for this purpose has been quite well developed and applied in many places. The performance of a simple basin greenhouse-type solar still coupled to a flat plate collector is experimentally investigated. The Saharan sites of Algeria enjoys bright sunshine and dry weather during most part of year. The objective of the work is to improve the performances of a simple single basin solar still, we test the distillation system in winter, under desert climatic conditions, to improve the quality and increase the quantity of distilled water, by using a solar collector for increasing the brine temperature, enhancing the evaporation process of a simple solar still and improving distillate collection process. Experiments have been conducted in Adrar, Algerian desert town (27 degree 18' N, latitude, 0 degree 17' W longitude). The daily still productivity in winter period varies from 4.5 l/m 2 /day to 5.3 l/m 2 /day with variation of water level from 1.5 cm to 3.5 cm. (Author)

  18. Alpha-amylase activity in wheat flour and breadmaking properties in relation to different climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakita Slađana M.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present paper was to evaluate the influence of different climatic conditions on the activity of alpha-amylase in wheat samples and bread quality parameters. Three wheat varieties grown in three different localities in three years were chosen for this study. Commonly used methods for estimation of alpha-amylase activity in wheat grain were employed. The obtained results indicated that harvest year 2013, which was characterized with the excessive amount of rainfall, exhibited the highest level of alpha-amylase activity and the lowest values of the peak viscosity. The lowest alpha-amylase level and the highest peak viscosity and FN value were observed for samples harvested in 2012 which was characterized with the greatest number of days with an average daily temperature above 30 and 35°C. In addition, a decrease in Mixolab parameter torque C3 and specific bread loaf volume, as well as increase in the breakdown torque (C3-C4 of samples harvested in 2013 were observed, which could be attributed to rainy weather influencing increase in alpha-amylase activity. It is found that specific bread loaf volume of wheat samples is highest in 2012. Moreover, a negative correlation between alpha-amylase activity and specific bread volume for all the samples grown in three years was determined.

  19. Nitrogen effects on growth and development of sunflower hybrids under agro-climatic conditions of malonate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasim, W.; Ahmad, A.; Wajid, A.; Muhammad, D.

    2011-01-01

    The effect of nitrogen (N) on growth, development, yield and yield components of different sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) hybrids was evaluated under agro-climatic conditions of Multan during spring 2008 and 2009. The experiment was laid out in a randomized complete block design with split plot arrangement having three replications, keeping cultivars in the main plots and N levels in the subplots. The net plot size was 4.2 m x 5 m. The results showed that, with increasing N rates, there was increment in the biomass, yield and yield components while the oil contents were adversely affected. However, there was high seed yield in 2008 as compared to 2009. Among sunflower hybrids, Hysun-38 gave more yield as compared to other sunflower hybrids (Hysun-33, Pioneer 64A93), while in case of N levels, 180 kg ha/sup -1/ provided higher yield than other N rates (0, 60, 120, 240 kg ha/sup -1/) in both years of study especially during 2008. (author)

  20. Wheat breadmaking properties in dependance on wheat enzymes status and climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomić, Jelena; Torbica, Aleksandra; Popović, Ljiljana; Hristov, Nikola; Nikolovski, Branislava

    2016-05-15

    The objective of this study was to evaluate albumins profile, proteolytic and amylolytic activity level and baking performance of wheat varieties grown in two production years with different climate conditions (2011 and 2012) in four locations. The results of ANOVA showed that variety, location, production year, and their interactions all had significant effects on all tested wheat quality parameters. The enzymatic activity and specific bread volume were mainly influenced by the variety. The samples from 2012 production year, had the lower values of albumin content, proteolytic and amylolytic activity, and bread specific volume. The correlation analysis, performed for 2011 production year, showed that albumin fraction (15-30 kDa) and proteolytic activity were negatively correlated with bread specific volume indicating the role of this fraction on lowering the crucial bread quality parameter. In 2012 production year, albumin fractions (5-15 kDa; 50-65 kDa) showed the most correlations, especially with parameters of bread quality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Energy-Efficient Supermarket Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning in Humid Climates in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Supermarkets are energy-intensive buildings that consume the greatest amount of electricity per square foot of building of any building type in the United States and represent 5% of total U.S. commercial building primary energy use (EIA 2005). Refrigeration and heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems are responsible for a large proportion of supermarkets’ total energy use. These two systems sometimes work together and sometimes compete, but the performance of one system always affects the performance of the other. To better understand these challenges and opportunities, the Commercial Buildings team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory investigated several of the most promising strategies for providing energy-efficient HVAC for supermarkets and quantified the resulting energy use and costs using detailed simulations. This research effort was conducted on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Commercial Building Partnerships (CBP) (Baechler et al. 2012; Parrish et al. 2013; Antonopoulos et al. 2014; Hirsch et al. 2014). The goal of CBP was to reduce energy use in the commercial building sector by creating, testing, and validating design concepts on the pathway to net zero energy commercial buildings. Several CBP partners owned or operated buildings containing supermarkets and were interested in optimizing the energy efficiency of supermarket HVAC systems in hot-humid climates. These partners included Walmart, Target, Whole Foods Market, SUPERVALU, and the Defense Commissary Agency.

  2. Composition of Myrtus communis L. Essential Oils as Affected by Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Pereira

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Myrtus Communis L. (Myrtaceae family, commonly known as myrtle, possesses a set of qualities that make it very interesting for the pharmaceutical, nutraceutical and cosmetic industries. In this work, myrtle was studied over a period of three years (2006-2008, encompassing the main stages of the development cycle of the plant. The influence of climatic conditions, such as temperature and rainfall, on the chemical composition and yield of the essential oils obtained from leaves and berries was studied. The leaves and berries essential oils were obtained by Clevenger distillation and analysed by GC and GC-MS. The results show that the major components were limonene+1,8-cineole, myrtenyl acetate, α-pinene and linalool. Over the three year period of study, a decrease in the composition of the most volatile compounds (α-pinene and limonene+1,8-cineole was observed, the reverse being found for linalool and myrtenyl acetate. The highest value for the yield of the leaves’ essential oils was observed in the third year (0.64%, w/w, whereas that same year the lowest yield (0.07%, w/w of fruit was observed. These results were likely due to an atypically high record for rainfall in April and May of that year. The highest value of the berry essential oils (0.14%, w/w was obtained in the second year.

  3. Effect of Shading on Physiological, Biochemical and Behaviour Changes in Crossbred Calves Under Hot Climatic Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teama, F.E.I.; Gad, A.E.; El-Tarabany, A.A.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the importance and the effect of shading and non-shading house on physiological changes, body weight (BW), average daily gain (ADG), total antioxidant and thyroid hormones in crossbred calves under hot conditions. Thirty six growing crossbred calves (Friesian x Baladi) aged 8-10 months were divided into two groups (each 18 calves); the first group was maintained in shaded house and the second in house without shade (climatic house). The period of study was 79 days during hot conditions. Performance variables (BW, ADG) were measured and the blood samples were collected to assess some biochemical parameters including antioxidants such as total antioxidant (TA), catalase (CAT), total protein, thyroid hormones (T3, T4) and immunoglobulin factor (IgG). Respiration rates and behaviour parameters (feeding, drinking, standing, lying and agonistic) were also measured during the study. The data indicated that the shaded calves had higher ADG (P<0.05) and final BW than non-shaded ones. Also, a significant improvement in total protein levels and globulins were recorded in shaded house calves as compared to non-shaded ones. The same result was obtained for T3 level whereas non-significant changes were observed for T4 level as well as the level of IgG at different times. The present data indicated that using shaded house will decrease the effect of heat stress on calves which will increase the animal performance through improving BW and ADG as well as some biochemical parameters in addition to T3 hormonal level.

  4. White willow sexual regeneration capacity under estuarine conditions in times of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus-Michalczyk, Heike; Hanelt, Dieter; Denstorf, Julian; Jensen, Kai

    2016-10-01

    Tidal wetlands provide both habitats for coastal populations and wildlife, and ecosystem services for human welfare. Building with nature regarding cost-effective coastal protection is of increasing interest. Much research has been carried out on plant reproduction capacities in mangroves and salt marshes, but less is known on this issue in tidal freshwater wetlands. Willows are being successfully used for bank stabilization in riverine habitats, however, today white willow softwood forests in tidal wetlands are highly fragmented, and restoration is required e.g. by the European Habitats Directive. Recently, tolerance to increasing salinity and tidal flooding was found for vegetative propagules of floodplain willows. However, the establishment of autochthonous sexual recruits is necessary to conserve the genetic diversity of local populations, and thus may be preferable in restoration. The germination and early seedling establishment of Salix alba (white willow) was experimentally studied under simulated estuarine conditions. The species tolerance to increasing salinity (0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2) was tested in a climate chamber, and its tolerance to flooding at different tidal treatments (control, spring tide, daily tide 15 min and 2 h flooding) in the greenhouse. Germination was neither affected by increasing salinity nor by tidal flooding. Salix seedlings established up to salinity 1.5, but cotyledon performance and radicle growth was largely reduced at salinity 2. Under tidal flooding, seedling growth was similar in all treatments. However, in the treatments with daily tides seedling anchorage in the substrate took more than two weeks, and fewer seedlings reached a suitable length to approach the high water line. We assess S. alba sexual regeneration under estuarine conditions as generally possible. Further studies are needed on the effects of sedimentation-erosion processes on willow establishment in the field, especially on feedbacks between Salix survival and

  5. Development of a Photovoltaic Array Emulator System in Real Time Considering Climatic Conditions Variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilo E. Ardila-Franco

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the development of an emulator that has the ability to replicate, in real time, the behavior of photovoltaic panels (PV arrays considering different conditions of irradiation and temperature for each one. The emulator consists of a data acquisition card, a programmable source and a computer. It is based on the bypass diode model that provides a better approximation to real operating conditions. The solution is computed by a simplified equation that uses the Lambert W function, which reduces the computation time. After that, it generates a solution table of values of current as a function of voltage on terminals, temperature and irradiation. Real-time emulation is performed by means of a search algorithm in the solutions table of the closest value to the voltage imposed on the terminals.

  6. Factors influencing adult physical health after controlling for current health conditions: evidence from a british cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Cheng

    Full Text Available This study explored a longitudinal data set of 6875 British adults examining the effects of parental social status (measured at birth, cognitive ability (at age 11 yrs, personality traits, education and occupational attainment on physical health and functioning (all measured at age 50 yrs, after taking account of current health conditions (number of illness. Correlation analysis showed that parental social class, childhood cognitive ability, education and occupation, and two personality traits (Emotional Stability/Neuroticism, and Conscientiousness were all significantly associated with adult physical health variables. Structural equation modelling showed that health conditions and personality traits were significantly, and inversely, associated with physical health (indicated by good daily physical functioning, relative absence of pain, perceived health, and low level of limitations at work due to physical health. Parental social status, childhood intelligence, educational and occupational attainment were all modestly, but significantly and directly, associated with adult physical health. The effect of childhood intelligence on adult physical health was, in part, mediated through Emotional Stability and Conscientiousness. After controlling for health conditions Emotional Stability was the strongest predictor of physical health. Implications and limitations are discussed.

  7. Assessment of Power Potential of Tidal Currents and Impacts of Power Extraction on Flow Conditions in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orhan, Kadir; Mayerle, Roberto

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human societies and the planet and thus requires an effective and appropriate response, with a view to accelerating the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions. At this point, a worldwide shift to renewable energy is crucial. In this study, a methodology comprising of the estimates of power yield, evaluation of the effects of power extraction on flow conditions, and near-field investigations to deliver wake characteristics, recovery and interactions is described and applied to several straits in Indonesia. Site selection is done with high-resolution, three-dimensional flow models providing sufficient spatiotemporal coverage. Much attention has been given to the meteorological forcing, and conditions at the open sea boundaries to adequately capture the density gradients and flow fields. Model verifications using tidal records show excellent agreement. Sites with adequate depth for the energy conversion using horizontal axis tidal turbines, average kinetic power density greater than 0.5 kW/m2, and surface area larger than 0.5km2 are defined as energy hotspots. Spatial variation of the average extractable electric power is determined, and annual tidal energy resource is estimated for the straits in question. The results showed that the potential for tidal power generation in Indonesia is likely to exceed previous predictions reaching around 4,800MW. Models with higher resolutions have been developed to assess the impacts of devices on flow conditions and to resolve near-field turbine wakes in greater detail. The energy is assumed to be removed uniformly by sub-grid scale arrays of turbines. An additional drag force resulting in dissipation of the pre-existing kinetic power from 10% to 60% within a flow cross-section is introduced to capture the impacts. k-ɛ model, which is a second order turbulence closure model is selected to involve the effects of the turbulent kinetic energy and turbulent

  8. Effects of elevated CO2 and drought on wheat : testing crop simulation models for different experimental and climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ewert, F.; Rodriguez, D.; Jamieson, P.; Semenov, M.A.; Mitchell, R.A.C.; Goudriaan, J.; Porter, J.R.; Kimball, B.A.; Pinter, P.J.; Manderscheid, R.; Weigel, H.J.; Fangmeier, A.; Fereres, E.; Villalobos, F.

    2002-01-01

    Effects of increasing carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] on wheat vary depending on water supply and climatic conditions, which are difficult to estimate. Crop simulation models are often used to predict the impact of global atmospheric changes on food production. However, models have rarely been

  9. A systematic analysis of enabling conditions for synergy between climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duguma, L.A.; Wambugu, S.W.; Minang, P.A.; Noordwijk, van M.

    2014-01-01

    There is a growing quest for synergy between mitigation and adaptation due to concerns of inefficiency and ineffectiveness of the compartmentalized approaches to climate change. However, little has been done to explore the necessary enabling conditions for synergistic design and implementation. This

  10. To the micro-climatic condition influence upon the environment pollution during exploitation of being oxidized mineral deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhmedzhanov, T.K.; Al'mukhambetova, Sh.K.; Bajramov, I.M.

    1998-01-01

    Conducted researches showed dependence of environment pollution rate under exploration of being oxidized mineral deposits from number of meteorological futures of season changes. Zones of gases spreading in atmosphere from sources of pollution in dependence from micro-climatic conditions are estimated. Results can be used during preventive measures projecting for environment in deposits districts. (author)

  11. Comparison of Regression Techniques to Predict Response of Oilseed Rape Yield to Variation in Climatic Conditions in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharif, Behzad; Makowski, David; Plauborg, Finn

    2017-01-01

    Statistical regression models represent alternatives to process-based dynamic models for predicting the response of crop yields to variation in climatic conditions. Regression models can be used to quantify the effect of change in temperature and precipitation on yields. However, it is difficult ...

  12. Environmental Change: Precipitation and N, P, K, mg Fertilization Influences on Crop Yield Under Temperate Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    László Phd, Dd. M.

    2009-04-01

    Summary: Agroecological quality has a well estabished dependence on climate-rainfall changes because the water problems are pressing. Therefore, there is, growing concern about the potentially wide ranging risks that climate change would have on these key industries as the nature and extent of anticipated changes have become more evident. It also includes changes in land use and in plant production and their management. These changes are unprecedented in terms of both their rate and their spatial extent. Changes in land use (agrotechnics, soil, cultivation, fertility, quality, protection etc.) and in plant production (plant, nutrition, rotation, protection etc.) are currently the main manifestations. As an interdisciplinary problem it is necessary to study such a complex matter in terms of agricultural production. Generally, among natural catastrophes, droughts and floods cause the greatest problems in field crop production. The droughts and the floods that were experienced in Hungary in the early 1980s have drawn renewed attention to the analyses of these problems. New research on climate change-soil-plant systems are focused on yield and yield quality. This paper reports of the climate changes (rainfall); soil (acidic sandy brown forest) properties, mineral N, P, K, Mg fertilisation level and plant interactions on rye (Secale cereale L.), on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) and on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in a long term field experiment set up at Nyírlugos in north-eastern Hungary under temperate climate conditions in 1962. Results are summarised from 1962 to 1990. Main conclusions were as follows: 1. Rye: a, Experimental years were characterised by frequent extremes of precipitation variabilities and changes. b, By an average year, at a satisfactory fertilisation level (N: 90 kg ha-1 and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations) the maximum yield reached 3.8 t ha-1. But yield was decreased by 17% and by 52% due to drought and excess rainfall, respectively

  13. Understanding the Role of Microorganisms in Soil Quality and Fertility under changing Climatic Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dercon, Gerd; Adu-Gyamfi, Joseph; Heiling, Maria; Aigner, Martina; Nguyen, Minh-Long [Soil and Water Management and Crop Nutrition Laboratory, Joint FAO/IAEA Division for Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, Seibersdorf (Austria); Schwartz, Egbert [Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, (United States); Dexin, Lin [Soil and Water Management and Crop Nutrition Laboratory, Joint FAO/IAEA Division for Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, Seibersdorf, (Austria); Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fujian (China)

    2013-01-15

    The Soil and Water Management and Crop Nutrition (SWMCN) Subprogramme (Section and Laboratory) assists FAO and IAEA Member States in the development, validation and dissemination of a range of soil, water and crop management technology packages using nuclear and nuclear-related techniques. In the coming years, SWMCN aims to (i) improve soil quality and soil resilience against the impacts of climate change and variability and (ii) reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase soil carbon sequestration in both productive and marginal lands. To achieve these aims, the SWMCN Subprogramme is planning to put major emphasis on applied microbial ecology. Microbial communities play a major role in soil fertility improvement through the decomposition of crop residues, live- stock manure and soil organic matter. These microbes are often affected by variations in rainfall and temperature patterns caused by climate change. Recent advances in the use of stable isotopes like carbon-3, nitrogen-5 and oxygen-18 as biomarkers to characterize microbial communities and their interactions with soil nutrient and organic matter processes, known as stable isotope probing (SIP), are important for soil-water-nutrient management. SIP helps us to understand the interactions between soil microbial communities and their specific functions in soil carbon sequestration, soil organic matter stabilization, soil fertility and soil resilience, as well as the soil productive capacity for sustainable intensification of cropping and livestock production. SIP involves the introduction of a stable isotope labelled substrate into a soil microbial community to trace the fate of the substrate. This allows direct observations of substrate assimilation to be made in minimally disturbed communities of microorganisms. Microorganisms that are actively involved in specific metabolic processes can be identified under in-situ conditions. SIP is most developed for carbon-13 probing, but studies using nitrogen-15 and

  14. Seasonal variation in the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia in tropical climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subramaniam Vidya

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Observational studies have demonstrated various correlations between hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and different weather parameters. We aim to study if a correlation exists between the incidence of eclampsia and pre-eclampsia and various weather parameters in the tropical coastal city of Mumbai which has the distinction of having relatively uniform meteorological variables all throughout the year, except for the monsoon season. Methods We retrospectively analysed data from a large maternity centre in Mumbai, India over a period of 36 months from March 1993 to February 1996, recording the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia. Meteorological data was acquired from the regional meteorological centre recording the monthly average temperature, humidity, barometric pressure and rainfall during the study period. Study period was then divided into two climate conditions: monsoon season (June to August and dry season September to May. The incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia and the meteorological differences between the two seasons were compared. Results Over a 36-month period, a total of 29562 deliveries were recorded, of which 1238 patients developed preeclampsia (4.18% and 34 developed eclampsia (0.11%. The incidence of preeclampsia did not differ between the monsoon and the dry season (4.3% vs. 4.15%, p = 0.5. The incidence of eclampsia was significantly higher in the monsoon (0.2% vs. 0.08%, p = 0.01. The monsoon was significantly cooler (median maximum temperature 30.7°C vs. 32.3°C, p = 0.01, more humid (median relative humidity 85% vs. 70%, p = 0.0008, and received higher rainfall (median 504.9 mm vs. 0.3 mm, p = 0.0002 than the rest of the year. The median barometric pressure (1005 mb during the monsoon season was significantly lower than the rest of the year (1012 mb, p Conclusion In the tropical climate of Mumbai, the incidence of eclampsia is significantly higher in monsoon, when the weather is cooler and

  15. DOE Final Report on Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Schlosser, C. Adam [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Melillo, Jerry M. [Marine Biological Lab. (MBL), Woods Hole, MA (United States); Anthony, Katey Walter [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Kicklighter, David [Marine Biological Lab. (MBL), Woods Hole, MA (United States); Gao, Xiang [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-03

    Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  16. BIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF PIKE (ESOX LUCIUS LINNAEUS, 1758 OF THE LOWER DNIEPER RIVER IN CURRENT CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Geina

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To analyze major biological characteristics of pike (Esox lucius L., 1758 stock in the lower Dnieper River in the conditions of transformed flow. Methodology. Collection of the ichthyological material was carried out in the lower Dnieper River from commercial fishing gears, including beach seines, drag seines, fyke-nets. Field, laboratory processing of samples and mathematical analysis of the obtained results were carried out according to generally accepted methods and guidelines with some assumptions regarding the duration of pike fattening directly in the lower Dnieper River. Findings. Recent years, there is an increase in the specific weight of younger age groups in the pike stock in the lower Dnieper River. Analysis of linear growth indicates on satisfactory environmental conditions for pike. Current commercial contingent of pike is based on size classes of 46–50 cm versus 22–32 cm in the first half of the last century. Reproductive properties of pike, in particular fecundity, egg size and maturity coefficients did not virtually change compared to those of the last century. Depending on linear sizes, the absolute fecundity is 32.3–155.8 thousand eggs and the maturation coefficient is 11.1–15.7%. Morphologic variability of pike in the lower Dnieper River during the period from 1980s to the present time was observed for plastic features, which characterized fin sizes. Sexual dimorphism in current conditions was observed only for maximum body depth. No significant differences for other plastic features between males and females of pike in the lower Dnieper River. Originality. The data on biological characteristics of pike stock from the lower Dnieper River have been updated. Current fecundity of females of different size groups recorded in commercial catches was been determined. An analysis of morphological variability of major plastic features of pike in the process of the transformation of the Dnieper River flow has been

  17. Effect of climatic conditions and irrigation on sugarbeet production in the Vojvodina Province, Serbia and Montenegro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maksimovic, Livija; Dragovic, Svetimir

    2004-01-01

    The climatic conditions in the Vojvodina Province, the main agricultural region of Serbia and Montenegro, are generally favorable for crop production, but the rainfall during growing season is frequently too low or irregular to secure high and stable yields of agricultural crops including sugarbeet. In climatic conditions where there is an uneven amount and distribution of precipitation, as is the case with this region, sugarbeet yield performance is directly dependent on weather conditions. Sugarbeet yields vary not only from one year to another but also from one region to another within the single growing season. The average sugar beet water requirement for the period 1987-2002 was 586 mm, with fairly small variations by either the region or the year. About 10-20% of the total sugarbeet requirement for water comes from reserve soil water, while the rest is provided by rainfall and irrigation. The actual evapotranspiration is 392 mm on the average, ranging from 198 mm in dry years to 542 mm in rainy years. The average precipitation sum for the growing season at Rimski Sancevi site was 360 mm, with high annual variation - from 138 to 683 mm. The average water deficit relative to the sugar beet water requirement was 190 mm, ranging from 24 to 367 mm. The deficit was especially pronounced in July and August, when it ranged between 0 and 282 mm, averaging 146 mm, or 75% of the total requirement. Sugarbeet root yield is directly proportional to the amount of rainfall during growing season and the amount of available water spent for actual evapotranspiration. Relatively high yields have been obtained in years with high amounts of rainfall (from 500 to 650 mm) and favorable distribution of rainfall during growing season. High yields were also obtained in years with relatively low amounts of rainfall but moderately favorable or favorable distribution of rainfall. In the period 1990-1999, root yields in commercial production varied significantly, from the average of 22.7 t

  18. Do nurse and patient injuries share common antecedents? An analysis of associations with safety climate and working conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jennifer A; Dominici, Francesca; Agnew, Jacqueline; Gerwin, Daniel; Morlock, Laura; Miller, Marlene R

    2012-02-01

    Safety climate and nurses' working conditions may have an impact on both patient outcomes and nurse occupational health, but these outcomes have rarely been examined concurrently. To examine the association of unit-level safety climate and specific nurse working conditions with injury outcomes for both nurses and patients in a single hospital. A cross-sectional study was conducted using nursing-unit level and individual-level data at an urban, level-one trauma centre in the USA. Multilevel logistic regressions were used to examine associations among injury outcomes, safety climate and working conditions on 29 nursing units, including a total of 723 nurses and 28 876 discharges. Safety climate was measured in 2004 using the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ). Working conditions included registered nursing hours per patient day (RNHPPD) and unit turnover. Patient injuries included 290 falls, 167 pulmonary embolism/deep vein thrombosis (PE/DVT), and 105 decubitus ulcers. Nurse injury was defined as a reported needle-stick, splash, slip, trip, or fall (n=78). Working conditions and outcomes were measured in 2005. The study found a negative association between two SAQ domains, Safety and Teamwork, with the odds of both decubitus ulcers and nurse injury. RNHPPD showed a negative association with patient falls and decubitus ulcers. Unit turnover was positively associated with nurse injury and PE/DVT, but negatively associated with falls and decubitus ulcers. Safety climate was associated with both patient and nurse injuries, suggesting that patient and nurse safety may actually be linked outcomes. The findings also indicate that increased unit turnover should be considered a risk factor for nurse and patient injuries.

  19. Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean. Current status and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-11-01

    This report is based on the agreements reached at the ITC meeting held in Brasilia on 17 and 18 July 2003, where each of the participating ITC agencies promised to compile collective efforts in the various thematic areas of priority to the Latin American and the Caribbean Initiative for Sustainable Development (LACI). In this report the activities on climate change that have been carried out in the region are detailed. It also notes the region's opportunities for implementing the Framework Convention on Climate Change. It should be noted that the inputs for this paper have been provided by the ITC agencies, that has been structured according to the activities and lines of work considered as important and strategic by the agencies

  20. Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

  1. Condition monitoring of a wind turbine doubly-fed induction generator through current signature analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artigao, Estefania; Honrubia-Escribano, Andres; Gomez-Lazaro, Emilio

    2017-11-01

    Operation and maintenance (O&M) of wind turbines is recently becoming the spotlight in the wind energy sector. While wind turbine power capacities continue to increase and new offshore developments are being installed, O&M costs keep raising. With the objective of reducing such costs, the new trends are moving from corrective and preventive maintenance toward predictive actions. In this scenario, condition monitoring (CM) has been identified as the key to achieve this goal. The induction generator of a wind turbine is a major contributor to failure rates and downtime where doubly-fed induction generators (DFIG) are the dominant technology employed in variable speed wind turbines. The current work presents the analysis of an in-service DFIG. A one-year measurement campaign has been used to perform the study. Several signal processing techniques have been applied and the optimal method for CM has been identified. A diagnosis has been reached, the DFIG under study shows potential gearbox damage.

  2. Effects of sintering conditions on critical current properties and microstructures of MgB2 bulks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Akiyasu; Shimoyama, Jun-ichi; Ueda, Shinya; Katsura, Yukari; Iwayama, Isao; Horii, Shigeru; Kishio, Kohji

    2005-01-01

    The effects of heating conditions on critical current properties and microstructures of undoped MgB 2 bulks were systematically studied. Strong correlation was observed between J c and microstructures. The network structure with an excellent inter-grain connectivity of MgB 2 grains contributed to high-J c under low magnetic fields, and small grain size of MgB 2 enhanced the grain boundary flux pinning. Long time heating at low temperatures below the melting point of magnesium was discovered to be most effective for synthesis of MgB 2 bulks having strongly connected MgB 2 network structure with small grains. The sample heated at 550 deg. C for 1200 h recorded a high-J c of 4.02 x 10 5 A cm -2 at 20 K in self-field, while high-temperature and long time heating brought a significant grain growth which resulted in low J c

  3. Depositional History of the Western Amundsen Basin, Arctic Ocean, and Implications for Neogene Climate and Oceanographic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopper, J. R.; Castro, C. F.; Knutz, P. C.; Funck, T.

    2017-12-01

    Seismic reflection data collected in the western Amundsen Basin as part of the Law of the Sea program for the Kingdom of Denmark show a uniform and continuous cover of sediments over oceanic basement. An interpretation of seismic facies units shows that the depositional history of the basin reflects changing tectonic, climatic, and oceanographic conditions throughout the Cenozoic. In this contribution, the Miocene to present history is summarized. Two distinct changes in the depositional environment are proposed, first in response to the development of a deep water connection between the Arctic and North Atlantic, and the second in response to the onset of perennial sea ice cover in the Arctic. In the early to mid-Miocene, a buildup of contourite deposits indicates a distinct change in sedimentation that is particularly well developed near the flank of the Lomonosov Ridge. It is suggested that this is a response to the opening of the Fram Strait and the establishment of geostrophic bottom currents that flowed from the Laptev Sea towards Greenland. These deposits are overlain by a seismic facies unit characterized by buried channels and erosional features. These include prominent basinward levee systems that suggest a channel morphology maintained by overbank deposition of muddy sediments carried by suspension currents periodically spilling over the channel pathway. These deposits indicate a change to a much higher energy environment that is proposed to be a response to brine formation associated with the onset of perennial sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. This interpretation implies that the development of extensive sea ice cover results in a significant change in the energy environment of the ocean that is reflected in the depositional and erosional patterns observed. The lack of similar high energy erosional features and the presence of contourite deposits throughout most of the Miocene may indicate the Arctic Ocean was relatively ice-free until the very latest

  4. Human thermal comfort conditions and urban planning in hot-humid climates-The case of Cuba.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Algeciras, José Abel; Coch, Helena; De la Paz Pérez, Guillermo; Chaos Yeras, Mabel; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2016-08-01

    Climate regional characteristics, urban environmental conditions, and outdoors thermal comfort requirements of residents are important for urban planning. Basic studies of urban microclimate can provide information and useful resources to predict and improve thermal conditions in hot-humid climatic regions. The paper analyzes the thermal bioclimate and its influence as urban design factor in Cuba, using Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET). Simulations of wind speed variations and shade conditions were performed to quantify changes in thermal bioclimate due to possible modifications in urban morphology. Climate data from Havana, Camagüey, and Santiago of Cuba for the period 2001 to 2012 were used to calculate PET with the RayMan model. The results show that changes in meteorological parameters influence the urban microclimate, and consequently modify the thermal conditions in outdoors spaces. Shade is the predominant strategy to improve urban microclimate with more significant benefits in terms of PET higher than 30 °C. For climatic regions such as the analyzed ones, human thermal comfort can be improved by a wind speed modification for thresholds of PET above 30 °C, and by a wind speed decreases in conditions below 26 °C. The improvement of human thermal conditions is crucial for urban sustainability. On this regards, our study is a contribution for urban designers, due to the possibility of taking advantage of results for improving microclimatic conditions based on urban forms. The results may enable urban planners to create spaces that people prefer to visit, and also are usable in the reconfiguration of cities.

  5. Sarcopenia: An Undiagnosed Condition in Older Adults. Current Consensus Definition: Prevalence, Etiology, and Consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Sarcopenia, the age associated loss of skeletal muscle mass and function, has considerable societal consequences for the development of frailty, disability and health care planning. A group of geriatricians and scientists from academia and industry met in Rome, Italy on November 18, 2009 to arrive at a consensus definition of sarcopenia. The current consensus definition was approved unanimously by the meeting participants and is as follows: Sarcopenia is defined as the age-associated loss of skeletal muscle mass and function. The causes of sarcopenia are multi-factorial and can include disuse, altered endocrine function, chronic diseases, inflammation, insulin resistance, and nutritional deficiencies. While cachexia may be a component of sarcopenia, the two conditions are not the same. The diagnosis of sarcopenia should be considered in all older patients who present with observed declines in physical function, strength, or overall health. Sarcopenia should specifically be considered in patients who are bedridden, cannot independently rise from a chair, or who have a measured gait speed less that 1.0 m·s−1. Patients who meet these criteria should further undergo body composition assessment using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) with sarcopenia being defined using currently validated definitions. A diagnosis of sarcopenia is consistent with a gait speed of less than 1 m·s−1 and an objectively measured low muscle mass (eg: appendicular mass relative to ht2 that is ≤ 7.23 kg/ m2 in men ≤ 5.67 kg/ m2 in men). Sarcopenia is a highly prevalent condition in older persons that leads to disability, hospitalization and death. PMID:21527165

  6. Characterization of transient discharges under atmospheric-pressure conditions applying nitrogen photoemission and current measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Sandra; Rajasekaran, Priyadarshini; Bibinov, Nikita; Awakowicz, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The plasma parameters such as electron distribution function and electron density of three atmospheric-pressure transient discharges namely filamentary and homogeneous dielectric barrier discharges in air, and the spark discharge of an argon plasma coagulation (APC) system are determined. A combination of numerical simulation as well as diagnostic methods including current measurement and optical emission spectroscopy (OES) based on nitrogen emissions is used. The applied methods supplement each other and resolve problems, which arise when these methods are used individually. Nitrogen is used as a sensor gas and is admixed in low amount to argon for characterizing the APC discharge. Both direct and stepwise electron-impact excitation of nitrogen emissions are included in the plasma-chemical model applied for characterization of these transient discharges using OES where ambiguity arises in the determination of plasma parameters under specific discharge conditions. It is shown that the measured current solves this problem by providing additional information useful for the determination of discharge-specific plasma parameters. (paper)

  7. Simulation and Validation of Cisco Lethal Conditions in Minnesota Lakes under Past and Future Climate Scenarios Using Constant Survival Limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Jiang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Fish habitat in lakes is strongly constrained by water temperature (T and available dissolved oxygen (DO that are changed under climate warming. A one dimensional, dynamic water quality model MINLAKE2012 was used for T and DO simulation over 48 years. A fish habitat model FishHabitat2013 using simulated T and DO profiles as input was developed to determine lethal conditions of cisco Corgenous artedi in Minnesota lakes. Twenty-three lakes that had observations of cisco mortality or survival in the unusually warm summer of 2006 were used for model validation. The cisco habitat model used a lethal temperature of 22.1 °C and DO survival limit of 3 mg/L determined through model validation and sensitivity analysis. Cisco lethal conditions in 12 shallow, 16 medium-depth, and 30 deep virtual lakes were then simulated. Isopleths of total number of years with cisco kill and average cisco kill days for the years with kills under past (1961–2008 and future climate were generated to understand/extrapolate climate impacts on cisco in 620 Minnesota lakes. Shallow and medium-depth lakes are projected to not be good candidates for cisco refuge lakes, but deep lakes are possible cisco refuge lakes based on lethal condition projection under future warmer climate.

  8. Effects of the current boundary conditions at the plasma-gun gap on density in SSPX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolesnikov, Roman; Lodestro, L. L.; Meyer, W. H.

    2012-10-01

    The Sustained Spheromak Physics Experiment (SSPX) was a toroidal magnetic-confinement device without toroidal magnetic-field coils or a central transformer but which generated core-plasma currents by dynamo processes driven by coaxial plasma-gun injection into a flux-conserving vessel. Record electron temperatures in a spheromak (Te˜500eV) were achieved, and final results of the SSPX program were reported in [1]. Plasma density, which depended strongly on wall conditions, was an important parameter in SSPX. It was observed that density rises with Igun and that confinement improved as the density was lowered. Shortly after the last experiments, a new feature was added to the Corsica code's solver used to reconstruct SSPX equilibria. Motivated by n=0 fields observed in NIMROD simulations of SSPX, an insulating boundary condition was implemented at the plasma-gun gap. Using this option we will perform new reconstructions of SSPX equilibria and look for correlations between the location of the separatrix (which moves up the gun wall and onto the insulating gap as Igun increases) and plasma density and magnetic-flux amplification [2].[4pt] [1] H. S. McLean, APS, DPP, Dallas, TX, 2008.[0pt] [2] E. B. Hooper et al., Nucl. Fusion 47, 1064 (2007).

  9. Depolarization current relaxation process of insulating dielectrics after corona poling under different charging conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. W. Zhang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available As