WorldWideScience

Sample records for current climate studies

  1. Comparing snow models under current and future climates: Uncertainties and implications for hydrological impact studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troin, Magali; Poulin, Annie; Baraer, Michel; Brissette, François

    2016-09-01

    Projected climate change effects on snow hydrology are investigated for the 2041-2060 horizon following the SRES A2 emissions scenario over three snowmelt-dominated catchments in Quebec, Canada. A 16-member ensemble of eight snow models (SM) simulations, based on the high-resolution Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM-15 km) simulations driven by two realizations of the Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM3), is established per catchment. This study aims to compare a range of SMs in their ability at simulating snow processes under current climate, and to evaluate how they affect the assessment of the climate change-induced snow impacts at the catchment scale. The variability of snowpack response caused by the use of different models within two different SM approaches (degree-day (DD) versus mixed degree-day/energy balance (DD/EB)) is also evaluated, as well as the uncertainty of natural climate variability. The simulations cover 1961-1990 in the present period and 2041-2060 in the future period. There is a general convergence in the ensemble spread of the climate change signals on snow water equivalent at the catchment scale, with an earlier peak and a decreased magnitude in all basins. The results of four snow indicators show that most of the uncertainty arises from natural climate variability (inter-member variability of the CRCM) followed by the snow model. Both the DD and DD/EB models provide comparable assessments of the impacts of climate change on snow hydrology at the catchment scale.

  2. Current Progresses in Study of Impacts of the Tibetan Plateau on Asian Summer Climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Guoxiong; MAO Jiangyu; DUAN Anmin; ZHANG Qiong

    2006-01-01

    The current progresses in the study of impacts of the Tibetan Plateau on Asian summer climate in the last decade are reviewed. By analyzing evolution of the transitional zone between westerly to the north and easterly to the south (WEB), it is shown that due to the strong heating over the Tibetan Plateau in spring, the overturning in the prevailing wind direction from easterly in winter to westerly in summer occurs firstly over the eastern Bay of Bengal (BOB), accompanied with vigorous convective precipitation to its east. The area between eastern BOB and western Indo-China Peninsula thus becomes the area with the earliest onset of Asian monsoon, which may be referred as BOB monsoon in short. It is shown that the summertime circulations triggered by the thermal forcing of the Iranian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau are embedded in phase with the continental-scale circulation forced by the diabatic heating over the Eurasian Continent. As a result, the East Asian summer monsoon is intensified and the drought climate over the western and central Asian areas is enhanced. Together with perturbations triggered by the Tibetan Plateau,the above scenarios and the associated heating have important influences on the climate patterns over Asia.Furthermore, the characteristics of the Tibetan mode of the summertime South Asian high are compared with those of Iranian mode. Results demonstrate that corresponding to each of the bimodality of the South Asian high, the rainfall anomaly distributions over Asia exhibit different patterns.

  3. Past and Current Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercedes Rodríguez Ruibal, Ma

    2014-05-01

    In 1837 the Swiss geologist and palaeontologist Louis Agassiz was the first scientist to propose the existence of an ice age in the Earth's past. Nearly two centuries after discussing global glacial periods... while the average global temperature is rising very quickly because of our economic and industrial model. In tribute to these pioneers, we have selected a major climate change of the past as the Snowball Earth and, through various activities in the classroom, compared to the current anthropogenic climate change. First, we include multiple geological processes that led to a global glaciation 750 million years ago as the decrease in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, the effect of climate variations in solar radiation due to emissions of volcanic dust and orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles), being an essential part of this model the feedback mechanism of the albedo of the ice on a geological scale. Moreover, from simple experiments and studies in the classroom this time we can compare the past with the current anthropogenic global warming we are experiencing and some of its consequences, highlighting that affect sea level rise, increased extreme and effects on health and the biosphere weather.

  4. Regional Wave Climates along Eastern Boundary Currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semedo, Alvaro; Soares, Pedro

    2016-04-01

    Two types of wind-generated gravity waves coexist at the ocean surface: wind sea and swell. Wind sea waves are waves under growing process. These young growing waves receive energy from the overlaying wind and are strongly coupled to the local wind field. Waves that propagate away from their generation area and no longer receive energy input from the local wind are called swell. Swell waves can travel long distances across entire ocean basins. A qualitative study of the ocean waves from a locally vs. remotely generation perspective is important, since the air sea interaction processes is strongly modulated by waves and vary accordingly to the prevalence of wind sea or swell waves in the area. A detailed climatology of wind sea and swell waves along eastern boundary currents (EBC; California Current, Canary Current, in the Northern Hemisphere, and Humboldt Current, Benguela Current, and Western Australia Current, in the Southern Hemisphere), based on the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-Interim reanalysis will be presented. The wind regime along EBC varies significantly from winter to summer. The high summer wind speeds along EBC generate higher locally generated wind sea waves, whereas lower winter wind speeds in these areas, along with stronger winter extratropical storms far away, lead to a predominance of swell waves there. In summer, the coast parallel winds also interact with coastal headlands, increasing the wind speed through a process called "expansion fan", which leads to an increase in the height of locally generated waves downwind of capes and points. Hence the spatial patterns of the wind sea or swell regional wave fields are shown to be different from the open ocean along EBC, due to coastal geometry and fetch dimensions. Swell waves will be shown to be considerably more prevalent and to carry more energy in winter along EBC, while in summer locally generated wind sea waves are either more comparable to swell waves or

  5. Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of current approaches and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gooré Bi, Eustache; Gachon, Philippe; Vrac, Mathieu; Monette, Frédéric

    2017-02-01

    Changes in extreme precipitation should be one of the primary impacts of climate change (CC) in urban areas. To assess these impacts, rainfall data from climate models are commonly used. The main goal of this paper is to report on the state of knowledge and recent works on the study of CC impacts with a focus on urban areas, in order to produce an integrated review of various approaches to which future studies can then be compared or constructed. Model output statistics (MOS) methods are increasingly used in the literature to study the impacts of CC in urban settings. A review of previous works highlights the non-stationarity nature of future climate data, underscoring the need to revise urban drainage system design criteria. A comparison of these studies is made difficult, however, by the numerous sources of uncertainty arising from a plethora of assumptions, scenarios, and modeling options. All the methods used do, however, predict increased extreme precipitation in the future, suggesting potential risks of combined sewer overflow frequencies, flooding, and back-up in existing sewer systems in urban areas. Future studies must quantify more accurately the different sources of uncertainty by improving downscaling and correction methods. New research is necessary to improve the data validation process, an aspect that is seldom reported in the literature. Finally, the potential application of non-stationarity conditions into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution should be assessed more closely, which will require close collaboration between engineers, hydrologists, statisticians, and climatologists, thus contributing to the ongoing reflection on this issue of social concern.

  6. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    An increased uptake of alternative low or non-CO2 emitting energy sources is one of the key priorities for policy makers to mitigate the effects of environmental change. Relatively little work has been undertaken on the mitigation potential of Ground Coupled Heat Pumps (GCHPs) despite the fact that a GCHP could significantly reduce CO2 emissions from heating systems. It is predicted that under climate change the most probable scenario is for UK temperatures to increase and for winter rainfall to become more abundant; the latter is likely to cause a general rise in groundwater levels. Summer rainfall may reduce considerably, while vegetation type and density may change. Furthermore, recent studies underline the likelihood of an increase in the number of heat waves. Under such a scenario, GCHPs will increasingly be used for cooling as well as heating. These factors will affect long-term performance of horizontal GCHP systems and hence their economic viability and mitigation potential during their life span ( 50 years). The seasonal temperature differences encountered in soil are harnessed by GCHPs to provide heating in the winter and cooling in the summer. The performance of a GCHP system will depend on technical factors (heat exchanger (HE) type, length, depth, and spacing of pipes), but also it will be determined to a large extent by interactions between the below-ground parts of the system and the environment (atmospheric conditions, vegetation and soil characteristics). Depending on the balance between extraction and rejection of heat from and to the ground, the soil temperature in the neighbourhood of the HE may fall or rise. The GROMIT project (GROund coupled heat pumps MITigation potential), funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (UK), is a multi-disciplinary research project, in collaboration with EarthEnergy Ltd., which aims to quantify the CO2 mitigation potential of horizontal GCHPs. It considers changing environmental conditions and combines

  7. CITYZEN climate impact studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schutz, Martin (ed.)

    2011-07-01

    We have estimated the impact of climate change on the chemical composition of the troposphere due to changes in climate from current climate (2000-2010) looking 40 years ahead (2040-2050). The climate projection has been made by the ECHAM5 model and was followed by chemistry-transport modelling using a global model, Oslo CTM2 (Isaksen et al., 2005; Srvde et al., 2008), and a regional model, EMEP. In this report we focus on carbon monoxide (CO) and surface ozone (O3) which are measures of primary and secondary air pollution. In parallel we have estimated the change in the same air pollutants resulting from changes in emissions over the same time period. (orig.)

  8. Groundwater and climate change research scoping study

    OpenAIRE

    Jackson, C. R.; Cheetham, M.; Guha, P

    2006-01-01

    This scoping study has reviewed much of the published literature in the field of climate change and groundwater research. Whilst it is not exhaustive with regard to groundwater quality issues, most of the published literature relating to climate change and groundwater resources, particularly in the UK, is covered. Further work is required to identify current research needs relating to the effects of climate change on groundwater quality. The study of the effects of climate chan...

  9. Comments on Current Space Systems Observing the Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, L. A.

    2016-07-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which was established in 1992, has been effective in specifying the observations needed for climate studies, and advocating that these observations be made. As a result, there are essential climate variables being observed, particularly from space, and these have formed the basis for our ever-improving models of how the Earth system functions and the human impact on it. We cannot conclude, however, that the current observing system in space is adequate. Climate change is accelerating, and we need to ensure that our observations capture, with completeness and with proper resolution and cadence, the most important changes. Perhaps of most significance, we need to use observations from space to guide the mitigation and adaptation strategies on which at last our civilization seems prepared to embark. And we need to use our observations to educate particularly policy makers on the reality of climate change, so that none deny the need to act. COSPAR is determined to play its part in highlighting the need to strengthen the climate observing system and notably its research component. This is being accomplished through events like the present roundtable, through the work of its Scientific Commission A, its Task Group on GEO (where COSPAR is serving as a member of its Program Board), and by promoting among space agencies and policy-makers the recently released scientific roadmap on Integrated Earth System Science for the period 2016-2025.

  10. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    OpenAIRE

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simula...

  11. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  12. Western boundary currents and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seager, Richard; Simpson, Isla R.

    2016-09-01

    A recent paper in Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans connects recent changes in atmospheric circulation to poleward movement and intensification of western boundary currents. Causes and characteristics of past and future trends in surface wind stress and western boundary currents are discussed here.

  13. Assessing the ability of current climate information to facilitate local climate services for the water sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis; Grillakis, Manolis; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-05-01

    In the frame of ECLISE EU FP6 project researchers, in close cooperation with local users of the water sector from the area of Crete, Greece, explored the ability of current climate information to develop and support local climate services water resources management and climate adaption policies. A wealth of climate modeling output ranging from event scale to decadal and centennial experiments, at temporal scales ranging from hourly to monthly, and at spatial scales from very high resolution regional climate models (2 km) to typical GCMs, were used in order to practically assess climate change impacts on water resources. Water resources availability issues analysed and facilitated within the project, focusing on estimates of the future water demands of the island, and comparing with seven "state of the art" CMIP5 simulations within COMBINE framework (under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to estimate water resources availability, during 21st century. The ability of decadal GCM prediction experiments to reproduce basic hydrometeorological variables like precipitation and temperature for local impact studies, was also examined. Water availability for the whole island at basin scale until 2100 is estimated using the SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model for a range of different scenarios of projected hydro-climatological regime, demand and supply potential. A robust signal of temperature increase and precipitation decrease is projected for all the pathways. Several messages could be extracted from this provider - user interaction such as the communication of basic concepts and uncertainties, user skepticism and feedback. The main user concern was the coarse spatial scale of climate information and in order to cope with this feedback a special case was framed in collaboration with the project modeling groups for demonstrating a high resolution climate modeling application of an extreme precipitation-flood event over the study area. This effort provided a realistic reproduction of the

  14. Drought Duration Biases in Current Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    Several droughts in the recent past are characterized by their increased duration and intensity. In particular, substantially prolonged droughts have brought major societal and economic losses in certain regions, yet climate change projections of such droughts in terms of duration is subject to large uncertainties. This study analyzes the biases of drought duration in state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Drought durations are defined as negative precipitation anomalies and evaluated with three observation-based datasets in the period of 1901-2010. Large spread in biases of GCMs is commonly found in all regions, with particular strong biases in North East Brazil, Africa, Northern Australia, Central America, Central and Northern Europe, Sahel and Asia. Also in most regions, the interquartile range of bias lies below 0, meaning that the GCMs tend to underestimate drought durations. Meanwhile in some regions such as Western South America, the Amazon, Sahel, West and South Africa, and Asia, considerable inconsistency among the three observation-based datasets were found. These results indicate substantial uncertainties and errors in current GCMs for simulating drought durations as well as a large spread in observation-based datasets, both of which are found to be particularly strong in those regions that are often considered to be hot spots of projected future drying. The underlying sources of these uncertainties need to be identified in further study and will be applied to constrain GCM-based drought projections under climate change.

  15. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  16. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  17. Assessment of mycotoxin risk on corn in the Philippines under current and future climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvacion, Arnold R; Pangga, Ireneo B; Cumagun, Christian Joseph R

    2015-01-01

    This study attempts to assess the risk of mycotoxins (aflatoxins and fumonisins) contamination on corn in the Philippines under current and projected climate change conditions using fuzzy logic methodology based on the published range of temperature and rainfall conditions that favor mycotoxin development. Based on the analysis, projected climatic change will reduce the risk of aflatoxin contamination in the country due to increased rainfall. In the case of fumonisin contamination, most parts of the country are at a very high risk both under current conditions and the projected climate change conditions.

  18. Current Automotive Holometry Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchi, Mitchell M.; Snyder, D. S.

    1990-04-01

    Holometry studies of automotive body and powertrain components have become a very useful high resolution test methodology to knowledgeable Ford engineering personnel. Current examples of studies that represent the static or dynamic operational conditions of the automotive test component are presented. Continuous wave laser holometry, computer aided holometry (CAH) and pulsed laser holometry were the holometric techniques used to study the following subjects: (1) body in prime (BIP) vibration modes, (2) transmission flexplate stud-torque converter deformation due to engine torque pulses, (3) engine cylinder head and camshaft support structure deformation due to cylinder pressure and (4) engine connecting rod/cap lift-off. Static and dynamic component loading and laboratory techniques required to produce usable and valid test results are discussed along with possible conclusions for the engineering concerns.

  19. Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Stackhouse, Paul W.

    2007-04-01

    For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, 7 of the last 9 yr have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

  20. Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

  1. Climate@Home: Utilizing Citizen Science for Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, K.; Yang, C.; Li, Z.; Sun, M.; Li, J.; Xu, C.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change has become a serious and urgent issue in the past decades (Stern N. 2007). It will influence many domains such as agriculture, economy, ecosystem, and others. To help scientists to simulate the climate change, NASA conducted a project, Climate@Home, to develop a cyberinfrastructure for running the modelE climate model. ModelE contains over 500 variables and needs many days to finish a 10 year analysis task. If scientists need to run 300 tasks, it may need about 3 years to complete the task using a single machine. As an exploratory study, an infrastructure was constructed to recruit citizen volunteers for harvesting computing resources from citizens based on the citizen science mechanism. However, there are challenges in order to build the infrastructure: 1) modelE is a Linux based model but volunteers may have different operating system platforms such as Windows, Apple OSX etc (Anderson et al. 2006); 2) modelE has big downloading file and generates big results file, how to download and upload files efficiently? 3) currently the task schedule uses first-come-fist-get mechanism, how to schedule task efficiently? We address these challenges with several designs: 1) virtual machines are used to package the modelE, an operating system and configured running environments; 2) Building FTPS based on users' spatiotemporal information for data downloading and uploading; 3) crafting the schedule system to grant tasks based on the volunteers spatiotemporal information and computing conditions such as CPU, memory and bandwidth. Key words: Volunteer Computing, Climate Change, Spatiotemporal, References: 1. Anderson, D. P., Christensen, C., & Allen, B. (2006, November). Designing a runtime system for volunteer computing. In SC 2006 Conference, Proceedings of the ACM/IEEE (pp. 33-33). IEEE. 2. Stern, N. N. H. (Ed.). (2007). The economics of climate change: the Stern review. Cambridge University Press.

  2. Utility of AIRS Retrievals for Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnar, Guyla I.; Susskind, Joel

    2007-01-01

    Satellites provide an ideal platform to study the Earth-atmosphere system on practically all spatial and temporal scales. Thus, one may expect that their rapidly growing datasets could provide crucial insights not only for short-term weather processes/predictions but into ongoing and future climate change processes as well. Though Earth-observing satellites have been around for decades, extracting climatically reliable information from their widely varying datasets faces rather formidable challenges. AIRS/AMSU is a state of the art infrared/microwave sounding system that was launched on the EOS Aqua platform on May 4, 2002, and has been providing operational quality measurements since September 2002. In addition to temperature and atmospheric constituent profiles, outgoing longwave radiation and basic cloud parameters are also derived from the AIRS/AMSU observations. However, so far the AIRS products have not been rigorously evaluated and/or validated on a large scale. Here we present preliminary assessments of monthly and 8-day mean AIRS "Version 4.0" retrieved products (available to the public through the DAAC at NASA/GSFC) to assess their utility for climate studies. First we present "consistency checks" by evaluating the time series of means, and "anomalies" (relative to the first 4 full years' worth of AIRS "climate statistics") of several climatically important retrieved parameters. Finally, we also present preliminary results regarding interrelationships of some of these geophysical variables, to assess to what extent they are consistent with the known physics of climate variability/change. In particular, we find at least one observed relationship which contradicts current general circulation climate (GCM) model results: the global water vapor climate feedback which is expected to be strongly positive is deduced to be slightly negative (shades of the "Lindzen effect"?). Though the current AIRS climatology covers only -4.5 years, it will hopefully extend much

  3. Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

    2014-12-01

    Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy

  4. Sensitivity analysis of a forest gap model concerning current and future climate variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lasch, P.; Suckow, F.; Buerger, G.; Lindner, M.

    1998-07-01

    The ability of a forest gap model to simulate the effects of climate variability and extreme events depends on the temporal resolution of the weather data that are used and the internal processing of these data for growth, regeneration and mortality. The climatological driving forces of most current gap models are based on monthly means of weather data and their standard deviations, and long-term monthly means are used for calculating yearly aggregated response functions for ecological processes. In this study, the results of sensitivity analyses using the forest gap model FORSKA{sub -}P and involving climate data of different resolutions, from long-term monthly means to daily time series, including extreme events, are presented for the current climate and for a climate change scenario. The model was applied at two sites with differing soil conditions in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany. The sensitivity of the model concerning climate variations and different climate input resolutions is analysed and evaluated. The climate variability used for the model investigations affected the behaviour of the model substantially. (orig.)

  5. Making or breaking climate targets : The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao, Shilpa; Arroyo Currás, Tabaré; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; P. van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition - the EU or the EU and China - embarks on immediate ambitious

  6. Vulnerability of Plantation Carbon Stocks to Defoliation under Current and Future Climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth A. Pinkard

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Plantation species globally are susceptible to a range of defoliating pests, but pest damage is rarely considered when estimating biomass C sequestered by these forests. We examined the impacts of defoliation on Eucalyptus globulus plantation C stocks under current and future climates using Mycospharella Leaf Disease (MLD as a case study, hypothesising that biomass C sequestered in plantations would decrease with a warming and drying climate, and that impacts of defoliation would be strongly site dependent. Six E. globulus plantation sites with varying productivity were selected for the study. Current (1961–2005 and future (2030 and 2070 severity and frequency of MLD were estimated for each site using the bioclimatic niche model CLIMEX, and used as inputs to the process-based forest productivity model CABALA. CABALA was used to develop annual estimates of total living and dead biomass for current, 2030 and 2070 climate scenarios. Averaged annual biomass outputs were used to initialise the carbon accounting model FullCAM for calculation of C sequestered in living and dead biomass over a growing cycle. E. globulus plantations were predicted to sequester between 4.8 and 13.4 Mg C·ha−1·year−1 over 10 years under current climatic conditions. While our estimates suggest that overall this is likely to increase slightly under future climates (up to a maximum of 17.2 Mg C·ha−1·year−1 in 2030, and a shift in minimum and maximum values to 7.6 and 17.6 respectively in 2070, we predict considerable between-site variation. Our results suggest that biomass C sequestration will not necessarily be enhanced by future climatic conditions in all locations. We predict that biomass C sequestration may be reduced considerably by defoliation meaning that any gains in C sequestration associated with changing climate may be substantially offset by defoliation. While defoliation has a generally small impact under current climatic conditions in these

  7. Biodiversity in a changing climate: a synthesis of current and projected trends in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.; Cross, Molly S.; Dubois, Natalie S.; Duffy, J. Emmett; Enquist, Carolyn; Griffis, Roger; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; O’Leary, John; Morrison, Scott A.; Sneddon, Lesley; Stein, Bruce A.; Thompson, Laura M.; Turner, Woody

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides a synthesis of the recent literature describing how global biodiversity is being affected by climate change and is projected to respond in the future. Current studies reinforce earlier findings of major climate-change-related impacts on biological systems and document new, more subtle after-effects. For example, many species are shifting their distributions and phenologies at faster rates than were recorded just a few years ago; however, responses are not uniform across species. Shifts have been idiosyncratic and in some cases counterintuitive, promoting new community compositions and altering biotic interactions. Although genetic diversity enhances species' potential to respond to variable conditions, climate change may outpace intrinsic adaptive capacities and increase the relative vulnerabilities of many organisms. Developing effective adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation will not only require flexible decision-making and management approaches that account for uncertainties in climate projections and ecological responses but will also necessitate coordinated monitoring efforts.

  8. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases, the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time-span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

  9. Climate Change Vulnerability and Resilience: Current Status and Trends for Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibarraran , Maria E.; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-12-30

    Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity towards new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent studies (Moss et al. 2000, Brenkert and Malone 2005, Malone and Brenket 2008, Ibarrarán et al. 2007), the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity and environmental capacity.

  10. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the South Pacific Ocean as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 21 November 1981 - 20 November 1983 (NODC Accession 8500258)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the South Pacific Ocean from November 21, 1981 to November 20, 1983. Data were submitted by...

  11. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 28 May 1986 to 11 May 1987 (NODC Accession 8900168)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean from 28 May 1986 to 01 May 1983. Data were submitted by Pacific Marine...

  12. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 20 January 1979 - 01 April 1984 (NODC Accession 8700077)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean from January 20, 1979 to April 1, 1984. Data were submitted by Pacific Marine...

  13. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 16 April 1984 - 01 October 1985 (NODC Accession 8700147)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) from April 16, 1984 to October 1, 1985. Data were...

  14. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the SW Pacific (limit-147 E to 140 W) as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 29 September 1985 to 01 April 1986 (NODC Accession 8800136)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the SW Pacific (limit-147 E to 140 W) from September 29, 1985 to June 1, 1986. Data were...

  15. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 01 May 1987 to 05 May 1987 (NODC Accession 9000211)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) from 01 May 1987 to 06 August 1988. Data were submitted...

  16. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 20 January 1979 to 26 April 1984 (NODC Accession 8500007)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean from January 20, 1979 to April 26, 1984. Data were submitted by Pacific...

  17. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 30 April 1990 - 15 May 1991 (NODC Accession 9400005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean from April 30, 1990 to May 15, 1991. Data were submitted by Pacific Marine...

  18. Mapping Climate Change: Six U.S. Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Marjorie O.

    2010-01-01

    This research focuses on the current role of mapping practices in communicating climate change in the United States. This includes maps used in monitoring climate change, projecting its potential impacts, and identifying potential adaptation strategies at particular scales. Since few, if any, studies have been done specifically on mapping…

  19. Evidence of current impact of climate change on life: a walk from genes to the biosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peñuelas, Josep; Sardans, Jordi; Estiarte, Marc; Ogaya, Romà; Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Barbeta, Adria; Rivas-Ubach, Albert; Llusià, Joan; Garbulsky, Martin; Filella, Iolanda; Jump, Alistair S

    2013-08-01

    We review the evidence of how organisms and populations are currently responding to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, genotypic evolution, changes in distribution and, in some cases, local extinction. Organisms alter their gene expression and metabolism to increase the concentrations of several antistress compounds and to change their physiology, phenology, growth and reproduction in response to climate change. Rapid adaptation and microevolution occur at the population level. Together with these phenotypic and genotypic adaptations, the movement of organisms and the turnover of populations can lead to migration toward habitats with better conditions unless hindered by barriers. Both migration and local extinction of populations have occurred. However, many unknowns for all these processes remain. The roles of phenotypic plasticity and genotypic evolution and their possible trade-offs and links with population structure warrant further research. The application of omic techniques to ecological studies will greatly favor this research. It remains poorly understood how climate change will result in asymmetrical responses of species and how it will interact with other increasing global impacts, such as N eutrophication, changes in environmental N : P ratios and species invasion, among many others. The biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks on climate of all these changes in vegetation are also poorly understood. We here review the evidence of responses to climate change and discuss the perspectives for increasing our knowledge of the interactions between climate change and life.

  20. Simulating malaria transmission in the current and future climate of West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamana, T. K.; Bomblies, A.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2015-12-01

    Malaria transmission in West Africa is closely tied to climate, as rain fed water pools provide breeding habitat for the anopheles mosquito vector, and temperature affects the mosquito's ability to spread disease. We present results of a highly detailed, spatially explicit mechanistic modelling study exploring the relationships between the environment and malaria in the current and future climate of West Africa. A mechanistic model of human immunity was incorporated into an existing agent-based model of malaria transmission, allowing us to move beyond entomological measures such as mosquito density and vectorial capacity to analyzing the prevalence of the malaria parasite within human populations. The result is a novel modelling tool that mechanistically simulates all of the key processes linking environment to malaria transmission. Simulations were conducted across climate zones in West Africa, linking temperature and rainfall to entomological and epidemiological variables with a focus on nonlinearities due to threshold effects and interannual variability. Comparisons to observations from the region confirmed that the model provides a reasonable representation of the entomological and epidemiological conditions in this region. We used the predictions of future climate from the most credible CMIP5 climate models to predict the change in frequency and severity of malaria epidemics in West Africa as a result of climate change.

  1. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 24 May 1988 to 26 May 1989 (NODC Accession 9100207)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) from 24 May 1988 to 26 May 1989. Data were submitted by...

  2. Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

    2015-01-01

    The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

  3. Gulf of Mexico Climate-History Calibration Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spear, Jessica W.; Poore, Richard Z.

    2010-01-01

    Reliable instrumental records of past climate are available for about the last 150 years only. To supplement the instrumental record, reconstructions of past climate are made from natural recorders such as trees, ice, corals, and microfossils preserved in sediments. These proxy records provide information on the rate and magnitude of past climate variability, factors that are critical to distinguishing between natural and human-induced climate change in the present. However, the value of proxy records is heavily dependent on calibration between the chemistry of the natural recorder and of the modern environmental conditions. The Gulf of Mexico Climate and Environmental History Project is currently undertaking a climate-history calibration study with material collected from an automated sediment trap. The primary focus of the calibration study is to provide a better calibration of low-latitude environmental conditions and shell chemistry of calcareous microfossils, such as planktic Foraminifera.

  4. Dust Composition in Climate Models: Current Status and Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez García-Pando, C.; Miller, R. L.; Perlwitz, J. P.; Kok, J. F.; Scanza, R.; Mahowald, N. M.

    2015-12-01

    Mineral dust created by wind erosion of soil particles is the dominant aerosol by mass in the atmosphere. It exerts significant effects on radiative fluxes, clouds, ocean biogeochemistry, and human health. Models that predict the lifecycle of mineral dust aerosols generally assume a globally uniform mineral composition. However, this simplification limits our understanding of the role of dust in the Earth system, since the effects of dust strongly depend on the particles' physical and chemical properties, which vary with their mineral composition. Hence, not only a detailed understanding of the processes determining the dust emission flux is needed, but also information about its size dependent mineral composition. Determining the mineral composition of dust aerosols is complicated. The largest uncertainty derives from the current atlases of soil mineral composition. These atlases provide global estimates of soil mineral fractions, but they are based upon massive extrapolation of a limited number of soil samples assuming that mineral composition is related to soil type. This disregards the potentially large variability of soil properties within each defined soil type. In addition, the analysis of these soil samples is based on wet sieving, a technique that breaks the aggregates found in the undisturbed parent soil. During wind erosion, these aggregates are subject to partial fragmentation, which generates differences on the size distribution and composition between the undisturbed parent soil and the emitted dust aerosols. We review recent progress on the representation of the mineral and chemical composition of dust in climate models. We discuss extensions of brittle fragmentation theory to prescribe the emitted size-resolved dust composition, and we identify key processes and uncertainties based upon model simulations and an unprecedented compilation of observations.

  5. Improving Understanding of the Agulhas Current and Its Global Climate Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beal, Lisa; Biastoch, Arne

    2010-05-01

    Working Group on the Climatic Importance of the Greater Agulhas System; Portland, Oregon, 20-21 February 2010; The first meeting of the new Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) Working Group 136 was held to discuss recent developments in understanding the greater Agulhas Current system and future research directions. The overarching goal of the working group is to improve understanding and awareness of the regional and global climate impacts of the Agulhas Current, a major western boundary current that flows along the east coast of Africa, and its interocean leakage. In addition to studying modern circulation, the working group is motivated by recent paleodata that suggest that through the currents' southern influence on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), changes in the leakage of warm and salty Agulhas waters into the Atlantic may have triggered the end of ice ages. In terms of global climate, this arguably puts the importance of the greater Agulhas system on a par with Heinrich (land-ice release) events and high-latitude deepwater formation.

  6. Climate Change and Food Security in Tanzania: Analysis of Current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... economic and social effects. Keywords: climate change, food security, agriculture, adaptation, Tanzania ... According to the IPCC (2008) report, global warming is already .... health in the southern highlands of Tanzania. He concluded that ...

  7. Climate change and respiratory health: current evidence and knowledge gaps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaro, Tim K; Knowlton, Kim; Balmes, John R

    2013-08-01

    Climate change is a key driver of the accelerating environmental change affecting populations around the world. Many of these changes and our response to them can affect respiratory health. This is an expert opinion review of recent peer-reviewed literature, focused on more recent medical journals and climate-health relevant modeling results from non-biomedical journals pertaining to climate interactions with air pollution. Global health impacts in low resource countries and migration precipitated by environmental change are addressed. The major findings are of respiratory health effects related to heat, air pollution, shifts in infectious diseases and allergens, flooding, water, food security and migration. The review concludes with knowledge gaps and research need that will support the evidence-base required to address the challenges ahead.

  8. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  9. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  10. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  11. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  12. Climate Change Adaption Measures in the Coastal City of Semarang, Indonesia: Current Practices and Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurrohman Wijaya

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak. Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara yang sangat rawan terhadap perubahan iklim dikarenakan oleh garis pantainya yang panjang, adanya konsentrasi penduduk dan kegiatan ekonomi di kawasan pesisir. Selain itu, dampak perubahan iklim telah memberikan akibat yang serius terhadap aspek lingkungan, sosial dan ekonomi. Untuk mengurangi dampak yang terjadi, maka diperlukan suatu proses dan intervensi tambahan melalui beberapa tindakan adaptasi. Beberapa upaya adaptasi terhadap perubahan iklim telah dilaksanakan di kota-kota pesisir di Indonesia. Artikel ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji praktik dan kinerja dari tindakan adaptasi perubahan iklim pada tingkat lokal di kota pesisir Semarang. Tindakan adaptasi tersebut yaitu integrasi strategi ketahanan iklim dengan perencanaan kota, serta strategi adaptasi fisik dalam penanggulangan bencana banjir. Temuan studi ini menyatakan bahwa kinerja tiap tindakan adaptasi memberikan hasil yang berbeda tergantung pada tipologi adaptasi. Kerjasama dan komitmen yang kuat di antara pemangku kepentingan serta peningkatan kapasitas adaptasi masyarakat lokal adalah hal yang dibutuhkan.Kata kunci. Tindakan adaptasi, perubahan iklim, kota pesisir, SemarangAbstract. Indonesia is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change due to its coastlines, high concentration of population and economic activity in coastal areas. In addition, the impacts of climate change have had severe environmental and socio-economic consequences. Adaptation measures are required to minimize the impacts. Some climate change adaptation measures have been practiced in the coastal cities of Indonesia. This article aims to examine the current practices and performance of local adaptation measures in the coastal city of Semarang City. The current adaptation practices include an integration of climate resilience strategy into city planning and a physical adaptation strategy for the tidal flood hazard. It is found that the performance of each

  13. Little auks buffer the impact of current Arctic climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grémillet, David; Welcker, Jorg; Karnovsky, Nina J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate models predict a multi-degree warming of the North Atlantic in the 21st century. A research priority is to understand the impact of such changes upon marine organisms. With 40-80 million individuals, planktivorous little auks (Alle alle) are an essential component of pelagic food webs in ...

  14. The Current Policy of the European Parliament on Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TODEA Al.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Approaches are presented to Parliament in order to take measures on climate change through suitable laws thataims to reduce bad habits that lead to greenhouse gas emissions, in order to reduce them by 20%, increase energyefficiency by 20% and use of resources renewable energy reaching 20% of all energy - with the deadline until 2020.

  15. Current studies on megapode phylogeny

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brom, T.G.; Dekker, R.W.R.J.

    1992-01-01

    Hypotheses regarding the phylogenetic relationships between megapodes and other birds are reviewed, and it is concluded that the available evidence supports a sistergroup relationship between megapodes and all other galliforms. Current studies in this direction are discussed. The resolvement of intr

  16. Using climate model simulations to assess the current climate risk to maize production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Chris; Pope, Edward; Thompson, Vikki; Lewis, Kirsty; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick

    2017-05-01

    The relationship between the climate and agricultural production is of considerable importance to global food security. However, there has been relatively little exploration of climate-variability related yield shocks. The short observational yield record does not adequately sample natural inter-annual variability thereby limiting the accuracy of probability assessments. Focusing on the United States and China, we present an innovative use of initialised ensemble climate simulations and a new agro-climatic indicator, to calculate the risk of severe water stress. Combined, these regions provide 60% of the world’s maize, and therefore, are crucial to global food security. To probe a greater range of inter-annual variability, the indicator is applied to 1400 simulations of the present day climate. The probability of severe water stress in the major maize producing regions is quantified, and in many regions an increased risk is found compared to calculations from observed historical data. Analysis suggests that the present day climate is also capable of producing unprecedented severe water stress conditions. Therefore, adaptation plans and policies based solely on observed events from the recent past may considerably under-estimate the true risk of climate-related maize shocks. The probability of a major impact event occurring simultaneously across both regions—a multi-breadbasket failure—is estimated to be up to 6% per decade and arises from a physically plausible climate state. This novel approach highlights the significance of climate impacts on crop production shocks and provides a platform for considerably improving food security assessments, in the present day or under a changing climate, as well as development of new risk based climate services.

  17. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level......More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level....... The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate...

  18. Solar-climatic statistical study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bray, R.E.

    1979-02-01

    The Solar-Climatic Statistical Study was performed to provide statistical information on the expected future availability of solar and wind power at various nationwide sites. Historic data (SOLMET), at 26 National Weather Service stations reporting hourly solar insolation and collateral meteorological information, were interrogated to provide an estimate of future trends. Solar data are global radiation incident on a horizontal surface, and wind data represent wind power normal to the air flow. Selected insolation and wind power conditions were investigated for their occurrence and persistence, for defined periods of time, on a monthly basis. Information of this nature are intended as an aid to preliminary planning activities for the design and operation of solar and wind energy utilization and conversion systems. Presented in this volume are probability estimates of solar insolation and wind power, alone and in combination, occurring and persisting at or above specified thresholds, for up to one week, for each of the 26 SOLMET stations. Diurnal variations of wind power were also considered. Selected probability data for each station are presented graphically, and comprehensive plots for all stations are provided on a set of microfiche included in a folder in the back of this volume.

  19. Climate change in the Himalayas : current state of knowledge

    OpenAIRE

    Gautam, Mahesh R.; Timilsina, Govinda R.; Acharya, Kumud

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature on the potential biophysical and economic impacts of climate change in the Himalayas. Existing observations indicate that the temperature is rising at a higher rate in Nepal and Chinese regions of the Himalayas compared with rest of the Himalayas. A declining trend of monsoon in the western Indian Himalayas and an increasing trend in the eastern Indian Himalayas have been observed, whereas increasing precipitation and stream flow in many parts of Tibetan Plat...

  20. Environmental impacts of barley cultivation under current and future climatic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dijkman, Teunis Johannes; Birkved, Morten; Saxe, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to compare the environmental impacts of spring barley cultivation in Denmark under current (year 2010) and future (year 2050) climatic conditions. Therefore, a Life Cycle Assessment was carried out for the production of 1 kg of spring barley in Denmark, at farm gate......-products, the resulting environmental impacts were allocated between the main product and their respective by-products using economic allocation. Impact assessment was done using the ReCiPe (H) methodology, except for toxicity impacts, which were assessed using USEtox. The results show that the impacts for all impact...... for the increased impacts. This finding was confirmed by the sensitivity analysis. Because this study focused solely on the impacts of climate change, technological improvements and political measures to reduce impacts in the 2050 scenario are not taken into account. Options to mitigate the environmental impacts...

  1. Climate Change and Cities in Africa: Current Dilemmas and Future Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.”7 A principal cause of climate change is the release of greenhouse ...What is causing the increase in greenhouse gas emissions? In recent decades, advancements in climate science have allowed for increasingly powerful...evidence that current patterns of climate change have been influenced by human activity.11 In particular, greenhouse emissions increased substantially

  2. The VEMAP integrated dataset for simulation of ecological responses to global change: Current climate and climate change scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kittel, T.G.F. [NCAR/UCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)]|[Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO (United States)

    1995-06-01

    The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) dataset consists of inputs for biogeochemical and biogeographical models, including current climate, climate scenarios, soils, and vegetation for the conterminous United States on a 0.5 deg lat./lon. grid. The set has daily and monthly representations of climate. Monthly temperature (T) and precipitation (PPT) were derived from station records or statistically-generated from nearby stations. These values were interpolated to the grid accounting for orographic effects in an effort to make the grid-scale climate representative of actual bioclimates within grid cells; this was crucial because ecosystem responses are nonlinearly related to climate. Daily T and PPT were stochastically simulated with WGEN, and daily solar radiation and humidity empirically estimated with CLIMSIM. Equilibrium climate change scenarios were selected to capture a range of potential change from GCM experiments. Transient scenario rates of change were based on atmosphere-ocean GCM results. Mean climate, equilibrium scenarios, vegetation, and soil data are available on CD-ROM.

  3. Extreme precipitation and temperature responses to circulation patterns in current climate: statistical approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Photiadou, C.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is likely to influence the frequency of extreme extremes - temperature, precipitation and hydrological extremes, which implies increasing risks for flood and drought events in Europe. In current climate, European countries were often not sufficiently prepared to deal with the great so

  4. Climate wise case study compendium: Report 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-02-01

    This case study compendium is one of several Climate Wise tools available to help interested companies identify cost-effective options. Climate Wise, a private-public partnership program, is a key Federal initiative to return greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000.

  5. Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moloney Kirk A

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Results Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. Conclusion The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the

  6. Study on climate change in Southwestern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zongxing

    2015-03-01

    Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

  7. [Current studies in myotonic dystrophy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yimeng; Ishiura, Shoichi

    2014-03-01

    Myotonic dystrophy (DM) is a genetic, progressive, multisystemic disease with muscular disorder as its primary symptom. There are two types of DM (DM1 and DM2) caused by mutations in different genes, and in Japan, DM occurs with an incidence of approximately 1 in 20,000. The pathogenic mechanism underlying the disease is RNA toxicity caused by transcripts of aberrantly elongated CTG or CCTG repeats located in the 3' untranslated region or in the intron. The current treatments for DM is limited to symptomatic care. In this review, we will discuss several new therapeutic strategies based on recent studies of RNA toxicity.

  8. Systematic review of current efforts to quantify the impacts of climate change on undernutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phalkey, Revati K; Aranda-Jan, Clara; Marx, Sabrina; Höfle, Bernhard; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2015-08-18

    Malnutrition is a challenge to the health and productivity of populations and is viewed as one of the five largest adverse health impacts of climate change. Nonetheless, systematic evidence quantifying these impacts is currently limited. Our aim was to assess the scientific evidence base for the impact of climate change on childhood undernutrition (particularly stunting) in subsistence farmers in low- and middle-income countries. A systematic review was conducted to identify peer-reviewed and gray full-text documents in English with no limits for year of publication or study design. Fifteen manuscripts were reviewed. Few studies use primary data to investigate the proportion of stunting that can be attributed to climate/weather variability. Although scattered and limited, current evidence suggests a significant but variable link between weather variables, e.g., rainfall, extreme weather events (floods/droughts), seasonality, and temperature, and childhood stunting at the household level (12 of 15 studies, 80%). In addition, we note that agricultural, socioeconomic, and demographic factors at the household and individual levels also play substantial roles in mediating the nutritional impacts. Comparable interdisciplinary studies based on primary data at a household level are urgently required to guide effective adaptation, particularly for rural subsistence farmers. Systemization of data collection at the global level is indispensable and urgent. We need to assimilate data from long-term, high-quality agricultural, environmental, socioeconomic, health, and demographic surveillance systems and develop robust statistical methods to establish and validate causal links, quantify impacts, and make reliable predictions that can guide evidence-based health interventions in the future.

  9. Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida: models of current and predicted future ranges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin R Langer

    Full Text Available Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1, and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.

  10. Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida): models of current and predicted future ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langer, Martin R; Weinmann, Anna E; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M; Rödder, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1), and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change.

  11. Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

  12. Response of Mycorrhizal Diversity to Current Climatic Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen E. Williams

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Form and function of mycorrhizas as well as tracing the presence of the mycorrhizal fungi through the geological time scale are herein first addressed. Then mycorrhizas and plant fitness, succession, mycorrhizas and ecosystem function, and mycorrhizal resiliency are introduced. From this, four hypotheses are drawn: (1 mycorrhizal diversity evolved in response to changes in Global Climate Change (GCC environmental drivers, (2 mycorrhizal diversity will be modified by present changes in GCC environmental drivers, (3 mycorrhizal changes in response to ecological drivers of GCC will in turn modify plant, community, and ecosystem responses to the same, and (4 Mycorrhizas will continue to evolve in response to present and future changes in GCC factors. The drivers of climate change examined here are: CO2 enrichment, temperature rise, altered precipitation, increased N-deposition, habitat fragmentation, and biotic invasion increase. These impact the soil-rhizosphere, plant and fungal physiology and/or ecosystem(s directly and indirectly. Direct effects include changes in resource availability and change in distribution of mycorrhizas. Indirect effects include changes in below ground allocation of C to roots and changes in plant species distribution. GCC ecological drivers have been partitioned into four putative time frames: (1 Immediate (1–2 years impacts, associated with ecosystem fragmentation and habitat loss realized through loss of plant-hosts and disturbance of the soil; (2 Short-term (3–10 year impacts, resultant of biotic invasions of exotic mycorrhizal fungi, plants and pests, diseases and other abiotic perturbations; (3 Intermediate-term (11–20 year impacts, of cumulative and additive effects of increased N (and S deposition, soil acidification and other pollutants; and (4 Long-term (21–50+ year impacts, where increased temperatures and CO2 will destabilize global rainfall patterns, soil properties and plant ecosystem resilience. Due

  13. Climate change and plankton phenology in freshwater: current trends and future commitments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Csaba Vadadi-Fülöp

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A solid body of empirical, experimental and theoretical evidence accumulated over recent years indicated that freshwater plankton experienced advance in phenology in response to climate change. Despite rapidly growing evidence for phenological changes, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how climate change alters plankton phenology in freshwater. To overcome current limitations, we need to shed some light on trends and constraints in current research. The goal of this study is to identify current trends and gaps based on analysis of selected papers, by the help of which we can facilitate further advance in the field. We searched the literature for plankton phenology and confined our search to studies where climate change has been proposed to alter plankton phenology and rates of changes were quantified. We did not restrict our search for empirical contributions; experimental and theoretical studies were considered as well. In the following we discuss the spatio-temporal setting of selected studies, contributions of different taxonomic groups, emerging methodological constraints, measures of phenological trends; and finally give a list of recommendations on how to improve our understanding in the field. The majority of studies were confined to deep lakes with a skewed geographical distribution toward Central Europe, where scientists have long been engaged in limnology. Despite these findings, recent studies suggest that plankton in running waters may experience change in phenology with similar magnitude. Average rate of advancement in phenology of freshwater plankton exceeded those of the marine plankton and the global average. Increasing study duration was not coupled either with increasing contribution of discontinuous data or with increasing rates of phenological changes. Future studies may benefit from i delivering longterm data across scientific and political boundaries; ii extending study sites to broader geographical areas with

  14. Spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture-temperature coupling in current and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwingshackl, Clemens; Hirschi, Martin; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

    2017-04-01

    While climate models generally agree on a future global mean temperature increase, the exact rate of change is still uncertain. The uncertainty is even higher for regional temperature trends that can deviate substantially from the projected global temperature increase. Several studies tried to constrain these regional temperature projections. They found that over land areas soil moisture is an important factor that influences the regional response. Due to the limited knowledge of the influence of soil moisture on atmospheric conditions on global scale the constraint remains still weak, though. Here, we use a framework that is based on the dependence of evaporative fraction (i.e. the fraction of net radiation that goes into latent heat flux) on soil moisture to distinguish between different soil moisture regimes (Seneviratne et al., 2010). It allows to estimate the influence of soil moisture on near-surface air temperature in the current climate and in future projections. While in the wet soil moisture regime, atmospheric conditions and related land surface fluxes can be considered as mostly driven by available energy, in the transitional regime - where evaporative fraction and soil moisture are essentially linearly coupled - soil moisture has an impact on turbulent heat fluxes, air humidity and temperature: Decreasing soil moisture and concomitant decreasing evaporative fraction cause increasing sensible heat flux, which might further lead to higher surface air temperatures. We investigate the strength of the single couplings (soil moisture → latent heat flux → sensible heat flux → air temperature) in order to quantify the influence of soil moisture on surface air temperature in the transitional regime. Moreover, we take into account that the coupling strength can change in the course of the year due to seasonal climate variations. The relations between soil moisture, evaporative fraction and near-surface air temperature in re-analysis and observation

  15. Regional scale patterns of fine root lifespan and turnover under current and future climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, Luke M; Eissenstat, David M; Prasad, Anantha M; Smithwick, Erica A H

    2013-06-01

    Fine root dynamics control a dominant flux of carbon from plants and into soils and mediate potential uptake and cycling of nutrients and water in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding of these patterns is needed to accurately describe critical processes like productivity and carbon storage from ecosystem to global scales. However, limited observations of root dynamics make it difficult to define and predict patterns of root dynamics across broad spatial scales. Here, we combine species-specific estimates of fine root dynamics with a model that predicts current distribution and future suitable habitat of temperate tree species across the eastern United States (US). Estimates of fine root lifespan and turnover are based on empirical observations and relationships with fine root and whole-plant traits and apply explicitly to the fine root pool that is relatively short-lived and most active in nutrient and water uptake. Results from the combined model identified patterns of faster root turnover rates in the North Central US and slower turnover rates in the Southeastern US. Portions of Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania were also predicted to experience >10% increases in root turnover rates given potential shifts in tree species composition under future climate scenarios while root turnover rates in other portions of the eastern US were predicted to decrease. Despite potential regional changes, the average estimates of root lifespan and turnover for the entire study area remained relatively stable between the current and future climate scenarios. Our combined model provides the first empirically based, spatially explicit, and spatially extensive estimates of fine root lifespan and turnover and is a potentially powerful tool allowing researchers to identify reasonable approximations of forest fine root turnover in areas where no direct observations are available. Future efforts should focus on reducing uncertainty in estimates of root dynamics by better understanding how

  16. Characteristic Features of Sea Level Series Analysis in the World Ocean Current Climatic Eustasy Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metreveli, G.; Tsivtsivadze, N.; Tavartqiladze, K.; Dokhnadze, G.; Lagidze, L.; Motsonelidze, N.

    2012-04-01

    Climatic eustasy - sea level long-term rise or decrease, is the result of ocean waters thermal expansion and the freshwater balance between land and ocean. This phenomenon accompanies climate change with some delay and like air temperature changes is an ongoing process. It is positive in warm climatic cycles and vice versa. The global climate warming, has provoked current climatic eustasy, which is started in high Northern latitudes in second part of 1890 's, and in secondary ones (basins of the Mediterranean and Black Seas)- in 1915-1923. In 2010 it caused the sea level raise at these latitudes at 0.3-0.4 m, but in the basins of these seas at 0.15 -0.20 m respectively. Climatic eustasy cycles and their continuity significantly influence on the comfortable environment forming process for living organisms in the sea and the coast. Therefore, the study of fundamental characteristics of this phenomena and its forecast in the near future (2025-2030) is highly topical issues. The solution of mentioned problems, with high precision and accuracy, is possible using "sea levels' long statistic series", combined with similar series of air and sea temperatures. The "long" is referred to as levels series if they are composed by two fragments of statistically sufficient length. First one contains information covering the period of negative eustasy, but the second- positive one. Before the using, from the fragments, the "noises", accompanying climatic fluctuations, various short-term trials and errors associated with data collection and processing have to be excluded. With special care the geological trend, caused by the altitude displacement of the coast, carried a data collection system, also should be excluded from them. Out of processed fragments, by the relevant methods, the amount of negative (Hn) and positive (Hp) eustasies, with precision of mm/year is determined. The sum of the absolute value of latter ones is the absolute eustasy (Ha), representing the local rate of

  17. Economic costs of achieving current conservation goals in the future as climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, M Rebecca; Klausmeyer, Kirk; Cameron, D Richard; Mackenzie, Jason; Roehrdanz, Patrick

    2012-06-01

    Conservation of biologically diverse regions has thus far been accomplished largely through the establishment and maintenance of protected areas. Climate change is expected to shift climate space of many species outside existing reserve boundaries. We used climate-envelope models to examine shifts in climate space of 11 species that are representative of the Mount Hamilton Project area (MHPA) (California, U.S.A.), which includes areas within Alameda, Santa Clara, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, and San Benito counties and is in the state's Central Coast ecoregion. We used Marxan site-selection software to determine the minimum area required as climate changes to achieve a baseline conservation goal equal to 80% of existing climate space for all species in the MHPA through 2050 and 2100. Additionally, we assessed the costs associated with use of existing conservation strategies (land acquisition and management actions such as species translocation, monitoring, and captive breeding) necessary to meet current species-conservation goals as climate changes. Meeting conservation goals as climate changes through 2050 required an additional 256,000 ha (332%) of protected area, primarily to the south and west of the MHPA. Through 2050 the total cost of land acquisition and management was estimated at US$1.67-1.79 billion, or 139-149% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. To maintain 80% of climate space through 2100 required nearly 380,000 additional hectares that would cost $2.46-2.62 billion, or 209-219% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. Furthermore, maintaining 80% of existing climate space within California for 27% of the focal species was not possible by 2100 because climate space for these species did not exist in the state. The high costs of conserving species as the climate changes-that we found in an assessment of one conservation project-highlights the need for tools that will aid

  18. New Titan Saltation Threshold Experiments: Investigating Current and Past Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridges, N.; Burr, D. M.; Marshall, J.; Smith, J. K.; Emery, J. P.; Horst, S. M.; Nield, E.; Yu, X.

    2015-12-01

    Titan exhibits aeolian sand dunes that cover ~20% of its surface, attesting to significant sediment transport by the wind. Recent experiments in the Titan Wind Tunnel (TWT) at NASA Ames Research Center [1,2] found that the threshold friction speed needed to detach Titanian "sand" is about 50% higher than previous estimates based on theory alone [3], a result that might be explained by the low ratio of particle to fluid density on the body [1]. Following the successful completion of the initial Titan threshold tests, we are conducting new experiments that expand the pressure range above and below current Titan values. The basic experimental techniques are described in [1], with minor updates to the instrumentation as described in [2]. To reproduce the kinematic viscosity and particle friction Reynolds number equivalent to that expected for Titan's nitrogen atmosphere at 1.4 bars and 94 K requires that TWT be pressurized to 12.5 bars for air at 293K. In addition to running experiments at this pressure to reproduce previous results [1] and investigate low density (high density ratio) materials, TWT pressures of 3 and 8 bars are in the experimental matrix to understand threshold under past Titan conditions when the atmospheric pressure may have been lower [4]. Higher pressures, at 15 and 20 bars in TWT, are also being run to understand the putative effects of low density ratio conditions. Our experimental matrix for this follow-on work uses some of the same materials as previously used, including walnut shells, basalt, quartz, glass spheres, and various low density materials to better simulate the gravity-equivalent weight of Titan sand. For these experiments, the TWT is now equipped with a new high pressure Tavis transducer with sufficient sensitivity to measure freestream speeds of less than 0.5 m s-1 at 12.5 bars. New techniques include video documentation of the experiments. We are also investigating methods of measuring humidity of the wind tunnel environment and

  19. Effects of Climate Change on Sardine Productivity in the California Current System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumgartner, T. R.; Auad, G.; Miller, A. J.

    2007-05-01

    The Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax caeruleus) is one of several coastal pelagic, planktivorous species of fish that provide important trophic links within the ecosystems of the major eastern and western boundary currents. Significant and persistent change in sardine productivity has occurred in the California Current over interdecadal periods in response to reorganization of basin-wide, ocean-atmosphere circulation. Less extreme, but still significant changes in sardine productivity are associated with interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. A precipitous decline of the sardine population began in the mid-1940s with a shift in climate leading to cooling of the California Current system. While the decline, and ultimately the collapse of the population, was exacerbated by intensive fishing, the sardine also suffered a severe reduction in productivity with the southward contraction of favorable thermal habitat that led to restriction of the population to the waters off Southern California and Baja California. This southward displacement resulted in geographic separation of the population from the region off central and northern California that is characterized by significantly higher concentrations of zooplankton that supported the previous levels of success in spawning and larval development. The climate shift in 1976-77 led to the recovery of the population and extension of its range of distribution northwards into the waters off British Columbia. The relation of reproductive success of the sardine population to interannual and decadal climate change was examined for the period 1982-2005 using a suite of seasonal indices representing climate processes and habitat conditions (including zooplankton food levels) occurring through the different stages in the sardine life cycle. We used both stepwise regression and EOF analyses to determine the association between levels of recruitment success and seasonal indices of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Ekman

  20. [Current status of autism studies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurita, H

    2001-01-01

    The current status of autism studies was reviewed based on English articles published during the 1990s. Although the concepts of autism and pervasive developmental disorders (PDD) are established, diagnostic criteria of PDDNOS or atypical autism, which is frequently difficult to differentiate from autism, need to be established. The prevalence of autism has been estimated as about 0.05% in the U.S and many European countries, while it was reported to be 0.1% or higher in Japan and some European countries, though the reasons for this difference are unclear. High-functioning (IQ > or = 70) autism may not be as rare a condition as previously thought and both its difference from and similarity to Asperger's syndrome, the highest functioning PDD subtype, need clarification. About 20 to 40% of children with autism lose meaningful words by the age of 2 years and display autistic symptoms thereafter. Such autism, called the setback type in Japan, has been demonstrated to have a poorer adolescent/adult outcome compared to autism without setback and its relationship with childhood disintegrative disorder, which displays a clearer regression after normal development for at least the first 2 years of life, needs to be addressed. The etiology of autism is now considered mostly genetic for reasons, such as the significantly higher concordance rate of autism in identical twin pairs (60-80%) than in fraternal twin pairs (0-10%) and an 3-5% incidence of autism among sibs of an autism proband, 30 to 100 times higher than that in the general population. The involvement of several genes is implicated to create susceptibility for autism, yet the responsible genes have not been identified. Although there is no medication to cure autism, some psychotropic drugs, such as antipsychotics and SSRIs, seem effective for behavior problems in autism patients. Psychosocial treatments are the main therapeutic approach to autism, though they are yet to be well systematized. It is important to

  1. Indiana bat summer maternity distribution: effects of current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan C. Loeb; Eric A. Winters

    2013-01-01

    Temperate zone bats may be more sensitive to climate change than other groups of mammals because many aspects of their ecology are closely linked to temperature. However, few studies have tried to predict the responses of bats to climate change. The Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) is a federally listed endangered species that is found in the eastern...

  2. Current climate change effects on the ground thermal regime in Central Yakutia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Stepan Varlamov; Yuri Skachkov; Pavel Skryabin

    2014-01-01

    The-evolution-of-ground-thermal-state-has-been-studied-to-assess-impacts-of-current-climatic-warming-on-permafrost-in-Central-Yakutia.-The-analysis-of-long-term-data-of-regional-weather-stations-has-revealed-one-of-the-highest-increasing-trends-in-mean-annual-air-temperature-in-northern-Russia.-A-forecast-of-surface-air-temperature-fluctuations-has-been-made-by-applying-a-frequency-analysis-method.-Monitoring-of-ground-thermal-conditions-allows-us-to-identify-inter-annual-and-long-term-variability-among-a-wide-range-of-natural-conditions.-Experimental-research-has-indicated-a-long-term-dynamics-of-ground-thermal-state-evolution:-ground-temperatures-at-the-depth-of-zero-annual-amplitude-and-seasonally-thawed-layer-depth.-Long-term-variability-of-thaw-depth-shows-near-zero-to-weak-positive-trends-in-small-valleys-in-contrast-to-weak-negative-trends-on-slopes.-With-significant-climatic-warming,-the-thermal-state-of-near-surface-layers-of-permafrost-demonstrates-steadiness.-Anthropogenic-impacts-on-ground-thermal-regime-in-various-terrain-types-have-been-qualitatively-evaluated.-Clear-cutting,-ground-cover-stripping,-and-post-fire-deforestation-in-inter-alas-type-terrains-result-in-a-significant-increase-of-temperature-and-seasonal-ground-thaw-depth,-as-well-as-adverse-cryogenic-processes.-The-dynamics-of-mean-annual-ground-temperature-in-slash-and-burn-sites-have-been-evaluated-in-reference-to-stages-of-successive-vegetation-recovery.

  3. Introduction. Progress in Earth science and climate studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, J Michael T

    2008-12-28

    In this introductory paper, I review the 'visions of the future' articles prepared by top young scientists for the second of the two Christmas 2008 Triennial Issues of Phil. Trans. R. Soc.A, devoted respectively to astronomy and Earth science. Topics covered in the Earth science issue include: trace gases in the atmosphere; dynamics of the Antarctic circumpolar current; a study of the boundary between the Earth's rocky mantle and its iron core; and two studies of volcanoes and their plumes. A final section devoted to ecology and climate covers: the mathematical modelling of plant-soil interactions; the effects of the boreal forests on the Earth's climate; the role of the past palaeoclimate in testing and calibrating today's numerical climate models; and the evaluation of these models including the quantification of their uncertainties.

  4. Climate change: a case study over India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahai, A.K. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India)

    1998-12-31

    A brief account of various causes of climate change in recent decades and climate change trends in the Indian region is presented. Local temperature is one of the major climatic elements to record the changes in the atmospheric environment caused by industrialization and urbanization. Literature data show that there is either a cooling tendency or cessation of warming after the late 1950s at most of the Indian industrial cities. A case study of Nagpur, a centrally located city in India, is done to understand the possible causes of cooling. Nagpur is the only city in India for which a long-term record of temperature, for urban (Mayo Hospital) and relatively suburban (Sonegaon Airport) area, is available. The study of the diurnal asymmetry in maximum and minimum temperatures indicates that the role of suspended particulate matter dominates over that of increasing greenhouse gases.

  5. High-resolution simulations for Vietnam - methodology and evaluation of current climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzfey, Jack; Nguyen, Kim; McGregor, John; Hoffmann, Peter; Ramasamy, Suppiah; Nguyen, Hiep Van; Khiem, Mai Van; Nguyen, Thang Van; Truong, Kien Ba; Vu, Thang Van; Nguyen, Hien Thuan; Thuc, Tran; Phong, Doan Ha; Nguyen, Bang Thanh; Phan-Van, Tan; Nguyen-Quang, Trung; Ngo-Duc, Thanh; Trinh-Tuan, Long

    2016-05-01

    To assist the government of Vietnam in its efforts to better understand the impacts of climate change and prioritise its adaptation measures, dynamically downscaled climate change projections were produced across Vietnam. Two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were used: CSIRO's variable-resolution Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) and the limited-area model Regional Climate Model system version 4.2 (RegCM4.2). First, global CCAM simulations were completed using bias- and variance-corrected sea surface temperatures as well as sea ice concentrations from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. This approach is different from other downscaling approaches as it does not use any atmospheric fields from the GCMs. The global CCAM simulations were then further downscaled to 10 km using CCAM and to 20 km using RegCM4.2. Evaluations of temperature and precipitation for the current climate (1980-2000) were completed using station data as well as various gridded observational datasets. The RCMs were able to reproduce reasonably well most of the important characteristics of observed spatial patterns and annual cycles of temperature. Average and minimum temperatures were well simulated (biases generally less than 1oC), while maximum temperatures had biases of around 1oC. For precipitation, although the RCMs captured the annual cycle, RegCM4.2 was too dry in Oct.-Nov. (-60% bias), while CCAM was too wet in Dec.- Mar. (130% bias). Both models were too dry in summer and too wet in winter (especially in northern Vietnam). The ability of the ensemble simulations to capture current climate increases confidence in the simulations of future climate.

  6. Evidence of current impact of climate change on life : A walk from genes to the biosphere

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Penuelas, Josep; Sardans, Jordi; Estiarte, Marc; Ogaya, Roma; Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Barbeta, Adria; Rivas-Ubach, Albert; Llusia, Joan; Garbulsky, Martin; Filella, Iolanda; Jump, Alistair S.

    We review the evidence of how organisms and populations are currently responding to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, genotypic evolution, changes in distribution and, in some cases, local extinction. Organisms alter their gene expression and metabolism to increase the concentrations of

  7. Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes

    KAUST Repository

    Wilson, S. K.

    2010-02-26

    Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef fishes were invited to submit five questions that, if addressed, would improve our understanding of climate change effects on coral reef fishes. Thirty-three scientists provided 155 questions, and 32 scientists scored these questions in terms of: (i) identifying a knowledge gap, (ii) achievability, (iii) applicability to a broad spectrum of species and reef habitats, and (iv) priority. Forty-two per cent of the questions related to habitat associations and community dynamics of fish, reflecting the established effects and immediate concern relating to climate-induced coral loss and habitat degradation. However, there were also questions on fish demographics, physiology, behaviour and management, all of which could be potentially affected by climate change. Irrespective of their individual expertise and background, scientists scored questions from different topics similarly, suggesting limited bias and recognition of a need for greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Presented here are the 53 highest-scoring unique questions. These questions should act as a guide for future research, providing a basis for better assessment and management of climate change impacts on coral reefs and associated fish communities.

  8. Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, S K; Adjeroud, M; Bellwood, D R; Berumen, M L; Booth, D; Bozec, Y-Marie; Chabanet, P; Cheal, A; Cinner, J; Depczynski, M; Feary, D A; Gagliano, M; Graham, N A J; Halford, A R; Halpern, B S; Harborne, A R; Hoey, A S; Holbrook, S J; Jones, G P; Kulbiki, M; Letourneur, Y; De Loma, T L; McClanahan, T; McCormick, M I; Meekan, M G; Mumby, P J; Munday, P L; Ohman, M C; Pratchett, M S; Riegl, B; Sano, M; Schmitt, R J; Syms, C

    2010-03-15

    Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef fishes were invited to submit five questions that, if addressed, would improve our understanding of climate change effects on coral reef fishes. Thirty-three scientists provided 155 questions, and 32 scientists scored these questions in terms of: (i) identifying a knowledge gap, (ii) achievability, (iii) applicability to a broad spectrum of species and reef habitats, and (iv) priority. Forty-two per cent of the questions related to habitat associations and community dynamics of fish, reflecting the established effects and immediate concern relating to climate-induced coral loss and habitat degradation. However, there were also questions on fish demographics, physiology, behaviour and management, all of which could be potentially affected by climate change. Irrespective of their individual expertise and background, scientists scored questions from different topics similarly, suggesting limited bias and recognition of a need for greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Presented here are the 53 highest-scoring unique questions. These questions should act as a guide for future research, providing a basis for better assessment and management of climate change impacts on coral reefs and associated fish communities.

  9. A Computing Infrastructure for Supporting Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, C.; Bambacus, M.; Freeman, S. M.; Huang, Q.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Xu, C.; Wojcik, G. S.; Cahalan, R. F.; NASA Climate @ Home Project Team

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is one of the major challenges facing us on the Earth planet in the 21st century. Scientists build many models to simulate the past and predict the climate change for the next decades or century. Most of the models are at a low resolution with some targeting high resolution in linkage to practical climate change preparedness. To calibrate and validate the models, millions of model runs are needed to find the best simulation and configuration. This paper introduces the NASA effort on Climate@Home project to build a supercomputer based-on advanced computing technologies, such as cloud computing, grid computing, and others. Climate@Home computing infrastructure includes several aspects: 1) a cloud computing platform is utilized to manage the potential spike access to the centralized components, such as grid computing server for dispatching and collecting models runs results; 2) a grid computing engine is developed based on MapReduce to dispatch models, model configuration, and collect simulation results and contributing statistics; 3) a portal serves as the entry point for the project to provide the management, sharing, and data exploration for end users; 4) scientists can access customized tools to configure model runs and visualize model results; 5) the public can access twitter and facebook to get the latest about the project. This paper will introduce the latest progress of the project and demonstrate the operational system during the AGU fall meeting. It will also discuss how this technology can become a trailblazer for other climate studies and relevant sciences. It will share how the challenges in computation and software integration were solved.

  10. Species distributions and climate change:current patterns and future scenarios for biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian

    the phylogenetic signal in climatic niches of the world's amphibians, which serves as a surrogate quantification of niche stability. Results indicate an overall tendency of phylogenetic signal to be present in realised climatic niches, but signal strength varies across biogeographical regions and among amphibian....... Two studies of my thesis provide evidence for this hypothesis: (1) geographical distributions of dragonflies adapted to less persistent habitats show higher degrees of equilibrium with climatic conditions; (2) spatial patterns of European freshwater species richness and turnover differ strongly among...

  11. A comparison of the climates of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and Current Warm Period reconstructed using coral records from the northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Wenfeng; Liu, Xi; Chen, Xuefei; Wei, Gangjian; Zeng, Ti; Xie, Luhua; Zhao, Jian-xin

    2017-01-01

    For the global oceans, the characteristics of high-resolution climate changes during the last millennium remain uncertain because of the limited availability of proxy data. This study reconstructs climate conditions using annually resolved coral records from the South China Sea (SCS) to provide new insights into climate change over the last millennium. The results indicate that the climate of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 900-1300) was similar to that of the Current Warm Period (CWP, AD 1850-present), which contradicts previous studies. The similar warmth levels for the MCA and CWP have also been recorded in the Makassar Strait of Indonesia, which suggests that the MCA was not warmer than the CWP in the western Pacific and that this may not have been a globally uniform change. Hydrological conditions were drier/saltier during the MCA and similar to those of the CWP. The drier/saltier MCA and CWP in the western Pacific may be associated with the reduced precipitation caused by variations in the Pacific Walker Circulation. As for the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1550-1850), the results from this study, together with previous data from the Makassar Strait, indicate a cold and wet period compared with the CWP and the MCA in the western Pacific. The cold LIA period agrees with the timing of the Maunder sunspot minimum and is therefore associated with low solar activity. The fresher/wetter LIA in the western Pacific may have been caused by the synchronized retreat of both the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the Australian Monsoon.

  12. Potential effects of climate change on a marine invasion: The importance of current context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle M. CÔTÉ, Stephanie J. GREEN

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally. There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem. Here, we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator, the Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles. We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour: pelagic larval duration, because of its link to dispersal potential, and prey consumption rate, because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey. Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory, we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures, with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance. Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large, predicted reductions are, on average, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfish in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local retention of larvae, local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change. Increasing temperature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey, leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass. However, the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases (and hence overall prey consumption rates on invaded reefs. Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that, at least for the lionfish invasion, the threat is clear and present, rather than future [Current Zoology 58 (1: 1–8, 2012].

  13. Potential effects of climate change on a marine invasion: The importance of current context

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Isabelle M. C(O)T(E); Stephanie J. GREEN

    2012-01-01

    Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally.There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem.Here,we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator,the lndo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P.miles).We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour:pelagic larval duration,because of its link to dispersal potential,and prey consumption rate,because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey.Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory,we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures,with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance.Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large,predicted reductions are,on average,more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfish in the Caribbean.Nevertheless,because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local retention of larvae,local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change.Increasing temperature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey,leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass.However,the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases (and hence overall prey consumption rates) on invaded reefs.Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that,at least for the lionfish invasion,the threat is clear and present,rather than future [Current Zoology 58 (1):1-8,2012].

  14. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

    2017-02-07

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  15. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

  16. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-02-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  17. Continental-scale convection-permitting modeling of the current and future climate of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Rasmussen, Roy; Barlage, Mike; Newman, Andrew J.; Prein, Andreas F.; Chen, Fei; Chen, Liang; Clark, Martyn; Dai, Aiguo; Dudhia, Jimy; Eidhammer, Trude; Gochis, David; Gutmann, Ethan; Kurkute, Sopan; Li, Yanping; Thompson, Gregory; Yates, David

    2016-08-01

    Orographic precipitation and snowpack provide a vital water resource for the western U.S., while convective precipitation accounts for a significant part of annual precipitation in the eastern U.S. As a result, water managers are keenly interested in their fate under climate change. However, previous studies of water cycle changes in the U.S. have been conducted with climate models of relatively coarse resolution, leading to potential misrepresentation of key physical processes. This paper presents results from a high-resolution climate change simulation that permits convection and resolves mesoscale orography at 4-km grid spacing over much of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two 13-year simulations were performed, consisting of a retrospective simulation (October 2000-September 2013) with initial and boundary conditions from ERA-interim and a future climate sensitivity simulation with modified reanalysis-derived initial and boundary conditions through adding the CMIP5 ensemble-mean high-end emission scenario climate change. The retrospective simulation is evaluated by validating against Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) and an ensemble of gridded observational datasets. It shows overall good performance capturing the annual/seasonal/sub-seasonal precipitation and surface temperature climatology except for a summer dry and warm bias in the central U.S. In particular, the WRF seasonal precipitation agrees with SNOTEL observations within a few percent over the mountain ranges, providing confidence in the model's estimation of western U.S. seasonal snowfall and snowpack. The future climate simulation forced with warmer and moister perturbed boundary conditions enhances annual and winter-spring-fall seasonal precipitation over most of the contiguous United States (CONUS), but suppresses summertime precipitation in the central U.S. The WRF-downscaled climate change simulations provide a high-resolution dataset (i.e., High-Resolution CONUS

  18. Globally Gridded Satellite observations for climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, K.R.; Ansari, S.; Bain, C.L.; Bourassa, M.A.; Dickinson, M.J.; Funk, C.; Helms, C.N.; Hennon, C.C.; Holmes, C.D.; Huffman, G.J.; Kossin, J.P.; Lee, H.-T.; Loew, A.; Magnusdottir, G.

    2011-01-01

    Geostationary satellites have provided routine, high temporal resolution Earth observations since the 1970s. Despite the long period of record, use of these data in climate studies has been limited for numerous reasons, among them that no central archive of geostationary data for all international satellites exists, full temporal and spatial resolution data are voluminous, and diverse calibration and navigation formats encumber the uniform processing needed for multisatellite climate studies. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) set the stage for overcoming these issues by archiving a subset of the full-resolution geostationary data at ~10-km resolution at 3-hourly intervals since 1983. Recent efforts at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center to provide convenient access to these data include remapping the data to a standard map projection, recalibrating the data to optimize temporal homogeneity, extending the record of observations back to 1980, and reformatting the data for broad public distribution. The Gridded Satellite (GridSat) dataset includes observations from the visible, infrared window, and infrared water vapor channels. Data are stored in Network Common Data Format (netCDF) using standards that permit a wide variety of tools and libraries to process the data quickly and easily. A novel data layering approach, together with appropriate satellite and file metadata, allows users to access GridSat data at varying levels of complexity based on their needs. The result is a climate data record already in use by the meteorological community. Examples include reanalysis of tropical cyclones, studies of global precipitation, and detection and tracking of the intertropical convergence zone.

  19. Climate change and decadal shifts in the phenology of larval fishes in the California Current ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asch, Rebecca G

    2015-07-28

    Climate change has prompted an earlier arrival of spring in numerous ecosystems. It is uncertain whether such changes are occurring in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling ecosystems, because these regions are subject to natural decadal climate variability, and regional climate models predict seasonal delays in upwelling. To answer this question, the phenology of 43 species of larval fishes was investigated between 1951 and 2008 off southern California. Ordination of the fish community showed earlier phenological progression in more recent years. Thirty-nine percent of seasonal peaks in larval abundance occurred earlier in the year, whereas 18% were delayed. The species whose phenology became earlier were characterized by an offshore, pelagic distribution, whereas species with delayed phenology were more likely to reside in coastal, demersal habitats. Phenological changes were more closely associated with a trend toward earlier warming of surface waters rather than decadal climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Species with long-term advances and delays in phenology reacted similarly to warming at the interannual time scale as demonstrated by responses to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The trend toward earlier spawning was correlated with changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and mesozooplankton displacement volume, but not coastal upwelling. SST and upwelling were correlated with delays in fish phenology. For species with 20th century advances in phenology, future projections indicate that current trends will continue unabated. The fate of species with delayed phenology is less clear due to differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models in projected upwelling trends.

  20. Climate change and decadal shifts in the phenology of larval fishes in the California Current ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asch, Rebecca G.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change has prompted an earlier arrival of spring in numerous ecosystems. It is uncertain whether such changes are occurring in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling ecosystems, because these regions are subject to natural decadal climate variability, and regional climate models predict seasonal delays in upwelling. To answer this question, the phenology of 43 species of larval fishes was investigated between 1951 and 2008 off southern California. Ordination of the fish community showed earlier phenological progression in more recent years. Thirty-nine percent of seasonal peaks in larval abundance occurred earlier in the year, whereas 18% were delayed. The species whose phenology became earlier were characterized by an offshore, pelagic distribution, whereas species with delayed phenology were more likely to reside in coastal, demersal habitats. Phenological changes were more closely associated with a trend toward earlier warming of surface waters rather than decadal climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Species with long-term advances and delays in phenology reacted similarly to warming at the interannual time scale as demonstrated by responses to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The trend toward earlier spawning was correlated with changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and mesozooplankton displacement volume, but not coastal upwelling. SST and upwelling were correlated with delays in fish phenology. For species with 20th century advances in phenology, future projections indicate that current trends will continue unabated. The fate of species with delayed phenology is less clear due to differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models in projected upwelling trends. PMID:26159416

  1. The relationship between vitamin D status and muscle strength in young healthy adults from sunny climate countries currently living in the northeast of Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamil, N A; Gray, S R; Fraser, W D; Fielding, S; Macdonald, H M

    2017-04-01

    The current study examined the relationship between vitamin D status and muscle strength in young healthy adults: residents (>6 months) and newcomers (0-3 months), originally from sunny climate countries but currently living in the northeast of Scotland. Our longitudinal data found a positive, albeit small, relationship between vitamin D status and knee extensor isometric strength.

  2. Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Arneth, Almut; Bondeau, Alberte; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Sitch, Stephen; Stehfest, Elke; Verburg, Peter H.

    2017-05-01

    Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) represents one of the key drivers of global environmental change. However, the processes and drivers of anthropogenic land-use activity are still overly simplistically implemented in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The published results of these models are used in major assessments of processes and impacts of global environmental change, such as the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Fully coupled models of climate, land use and biogeochemical cycles to explore land use-climate interactions across spatial scales are currently not available. Instead, information on land use is provided as exogenous data from the land-use change modules of integrated assessment models (IAMs) to TBMs. In this article, we discuss, based on literature review and illustrative analysis of empirical and modeled LULCC data, three major challenges of this current LULCC representation and their implications for land use-climate interaction studies: (I) provision of consistent, harmonized, land-use time series spanning from historical reconstructions to future projections while accounting for uncertainties associated with different land-use modeling approaches, (II) accounting for sub-grid processes and bidirectional changes (gross changes) across spatial scales, and (III) the allocation strategy of independent land-use data at the grid cell level in TBMs. We discuss the factors that hamper the development of improved land-use representation, which sufficiently accounts for uncertainties in the land-use modeling process. We propose that LULCC data-provider and user communities should engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced LULCC time series, which account for the diversity of LULCC modeling and increasingly include empirically based information about sub-grid processes and land-use transition trajectories, to improve the representation of land use in TBMs. Moreover, we suggest concentrating on the

  3. Changes in the Tsushima Warm Current and the Impact under a Global Warming Scenario in Coupled Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A-Ra Choi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study we investigated changes in the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC under the global warming scenario RCP 4.5 by analysing the results from the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5. Among the four models that had been employed to analyse the Tsushima Warm Current during the 20th Century, in the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and HadGEM2-CC models the transports of the Tsushima Warm Current were 2.8 Sv and 2.1 Sv, respectively, and comparable to observed transport, which is between 2.4 and 2.77 Sv. In the other two models the transports were much greater or smaller than the observed estimates. Using the two models that properly reproduced the transport of the Tsushima Warm Current we investigated the response of the current under the global warming scenario. In both models the volume transports and the temperature were greater in the future climate scenario. Warm advection into the East Sea was intensified to raise the temperature and consequently the heat loss to the air.

  4. Relative roles of local disturbance, current climate and palaeoclimate in determining phylogenetic and functional diversity in Chinese forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Gang; Mi, Xiangcheng; Bøcher, Peder Klith;

    2014-01-01

    studied, their relative importance for other aspects of diversity, notably phylogenetic and functional diversity is so far little studied. Here, we link data from large Chinese forest plots to data on current and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate as well as local disturbance regimes to study...... their relative roles in determining woody plant phylogenetic and functional diversity in this important hotspot for woody plant diversity. Local disturbance was the best predictor of functional diversity as represented by maximum canopy height (Hmax), probably reflecting the dominant role of competition...

  5. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  6. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam E Vorsino

    Full Text Available Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75 as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1. This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  7. The Contribution of Soils to North America's Current and Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Thornton, P. E.; Lajtha, K.; Bailey, V. L.; Shrestha, G.; Jastrow, J. D.; Torn, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation will cover key aspects of the terrestrial soil carbon cycle in North America and the US for the upcoming State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCRII). SOCCRII seeks to summarize how natural processes and human interactions affect the global carbon cycle, how socio-economic trends affect greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and how ecosystems are influenced by and respond to greenhouse gas emissions, management decisions, and concomitant climate effects. Here, we will summarize the contemporary understanding of carbon stocks, fluxes, and drivers in the soil ecosystem compartment. We will highlight recent advances in modeling the magnitude of soil carbon stocks and fluxes, as well as the importance of remaining uncertainties in predicting soil carbon cycling and its relationship with climate. Attention will be given to the role of uncertainties in predicting future fluxes from soils, and how those uncertainties vary by region and ecosystem. We will also address how climate feedbacks and management decisions can enhance or minimize future climatic effects based on current understanding and observations, and will highlight select research needs to improve our understanding of the balance of carbon in soils in North America.

  8. The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tshepo S. Masipa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to examine the impact of climate change on food security in South Africa. For this purpose, the article adopted a desktop study approach. Previous studies, reports, surveys and policies on climate change and food (insecurity. From this paper’s analysis, climate change presents a high risk to food security in sub-Saharan countries from crop production to food distribution and consumption. In light of this, it is found that climate change, particularly global warming, affects food security through food availability, accessibility, utilisation and affordability. To mitigate these risks, there is a need for an integrated policy approach to protect the arable land against global warming. The argument advanced in this article is that South Africa’s ability to adapt and protect its food items depends on the understanding of risks and the vulnerability of various food items to climate change. However, this poses a challenge in developing countries, including South Africa, because such countries have weak institutions and limited access to technology. Another concern is a wide gap between the cost of adapting and the necessary financial support from the government. There is also a need to invest in technologies that will resist risks on food systems.

  9. Leishmaniasis and climate change-case study: Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomón, Oscar Daniel; Quintana, María Gabriela; Mastrángelo, Andrea Verónica; Fernández, María Soledad

    2012-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases closely associated with the environment, such as leishmaniases, have been a usual argument about the deleterious impact of climate change on public health. From the biological point of view interaction of different variables has different and even conflicting effects on the survival of vectors and the probability transmission of pathogens. The results on ecoepidemiology of leishmaniasis in Argentina related to climate variables at different scales of space and time are presented. These studies showed that the changes in transmission due to change or increase in frequency and intensity of climatic instability were expressed through changes in the probability of vector-human reservoir effective contacts. These changes of contact in turn are modulated by both direct effects on the biology and ecology of the organisms involved, as by perceptions and changes in the behavior of the human communities at risk. Therefore, from the perspective of public health and state policy, and taking into account the current nonlinear increased velocity of climate change, we concluded that discussing the uncertainties of large-scale models will have lower impact than to develop-validate mitigation strategies to be operative at local level, and compatibles with sustainable development, conservation biodiversity, and respect for cultural diversity.

  10. Leishmaniasis and Climate Change—Case Study: Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomón, Oscar Daniel; Quintana, María Gabriela; Mastrángelo, Andrea Verónica; Fernández, María Soledad

    2012-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases closely associated with the environment, such as leishmaniases, have been a usual argument about the deleterious impact of climate change on public health. From the biological point of view interaction of different variables has different and even conflicting effects on the survival of vectors and the probability transmission of pathogens. The results on ecoepidemiology of leishmaniasis in Argentina related to climate variables at different scales of space and time are presented. These studies showed that the changes in transmission due to change or increase in frequency and intensity of climatic instability were expressed through changes in the probability of vector-human reservoir effective contacts. These changes of contact in turn are modulated by both direct effects on the biology and ecology of the organisms involved, as by perceptions and changes in the behavior of the human communities at risk. Therefore, from the perspective of public health and state policy, and taking into account the current nonlinear increased velocity of climate change, we concluded that discussing the uncertainties of large-scale models will have lower impact than to develop-validate mitigation strategies to be operative at local level, and compatibles with sustainable development, conservation biodiversity, and respect for cultural diversity. PMID:22685477

  11. Leishmaniasis and Climate Change—Case Study: Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Daniel Salomón

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Vector-borne diseases closely associated with the environment, such as leishmaniases, have been a usual argument about the deleterious impact of climate change on public health. From the biological point of view interaction of different variables has different and even conflicting effects on the survival of vectors and the probability transmission of pathogens. The results on ecoepidemiology of leishmaniasis in Argentina related to climate variables at different scales of space and time are presented. These studies showed that the changes in transmission due to change or increase in frequency and intensity of climatic instability were expressed through changes in the probability of vector-human reservoir effective contacts. These changes of contact in turn are modulated by both direct effects on the biology and ecology of the organisms involved, as by perceptions and changes in the behavior of the human communities at risk. Therefore, from the perspective of public health and state policy, and taking into account the current nonlinear increased velocity of climate change, we concluded that discussing the uncertainties of large-scale models will have lower impact than to develop-validate mitigation strategies to be operative at local level, and compatibles with sustainable development, conservation biodiversity, and respect for cultural diversity.

  12. Circulation patterns related to debris-flow triggering in the Zermatt valley in current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Heuvel, Floor; Goyette, Stéphane; Rahman, Kazi; Stoffel, Markus

    2016-11-01

    The principal objective of this study was to investigate the types of large-scale meteorological situations that are conducive to the precipitation and temperature conditions most likely to trigger debris flows in the Zermatt valley, Switzerland, under current and future climates. A two-dimensional Bayesian probability calculation was applied to take account of uncertainties in debris-flow triggering. Precipitation quantities exceeding the 95th percentile of daily precipitation amounts were found to have a significantly higher probability to coincide with observed debris flows. A different relationship exists for extreme temperatures, however. Southerly air flows, weak horizontal pressure gradients over Europe, and westerly flows are mostly associated with observed debris flows and 95th precipitation percentile exceedances. These principal flow directions are well represented in the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM control simulations for events exceeding the 95th precipitation percentile and the 30th temperature percentile. Under the IPCC A2 emission scenario, westerly and southerly flows are mostly responsible for these precipitation and temperature conditions under the hypothesis of slow adaptation to climate change (HS1/HC1). Under the hypothesis of rapid adaptation to climate change (HS1/HS1), southerly flows and weak horizontal pressure gradients are likely to gain in importance. In both scenarios for the future, southeasterly flows are among the principal flow directions responsible for the joint exceedance of the 95th precipitation percentile and the 30th temperature percentile, while these were absent in observations and the control simulation.

  13. Climate Change May Up Asthma Irritant, Study Says

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_166391.html Climate Change May Up Asthma Irritant, Study Says Researchers warn ... 8, 2017 THURSDAY, June 8, 2017 (HealthDay News) -- Climate change may increase people's exposure to an outdoor fungus ...

  14. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control.

  15. Climate change impact studies - how reliable are they?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Montanari, Alberto

    2010-05-01

    When two experts estimate the 100-year flood in a small ungauged catchment, chances are that their estimates are very different. When two groups predict the effects of future hydrological changes on stream flow and recharge for the same catchment, the results will hardly be consistent. Yet, climate change impact analyses have become a standard method in our tool box for addressing issues that seem to be of overwhelming concern to the society today. In this paper we argue that impact studies often tend to be overly optimistic about the reliability of their predictions, and overly pessimistic about the effects on society. Just as a medical doctor who, when in doubt, would say that his patient is going to die - to be on the safe side. We will contrast this assessment with our views on the current state of change prediction and outline the opportunities in this area of hydrologic research. Improving the understanding of hydrological processes under the current climate, focusing on why impact studies predict changes rather than on the magnitudes of the change, improving hydrologically-driven uncertainty methods, being more transparent about what we can and cannot predict and being realistic about the role of adaptation measures in the context of water management, we believe, are the cornerstones of more successful climate impact studies. We are truly optimistic that hydrologists will make progress in this important and exciting area of hydrology. Blöschl and A. Montanari (2009) Climate change impacts - throwing the dice? Hydrol. Process. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7574

  16. Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the

  17. Studies of dynamical processes affecting global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, C.; Cooper, D.; Eichinger, W. [and others

    1998-12-31

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The main objective was, by a combined theoretical and observational approach, to develop improved models of dynamic processes in the oceans and atmosphere and to incorporate them into large climate codes, chiefly in four main areas: numerical physics, chemistry, water vapor, and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Main areas of investigation included studies of: cloud parameterizations for global climate codes, Lidar and the planetary boundary layer, chemistry, climate variability using coupled ocean-atmospheric models, and numerical physical methods. This project employed a unique approach that included participation of a number of University of California faculty, postdoctoral fellows and graduate students who collaborated with Los Alamos research staff on specific tasks, thus greatly enhancing the research output. Overall accomplishments during the sensing of the atmospheric planetary were: (1) first two- and three-dimensional remote sensing of the atmospheric planetary boundary layer using Lidars, (2) modeling of 20-year cycle in both pressure and sea surface temperatures in North Pacific, (3) modeling of low frequency internal variability, (4) addition of aerosols to stratosphere to simulate Pinatubo effect on ozone, (5) development of fast, comprehensive chemistry in the troposphere for urban pollution studies, (6) new prognostic cloud parameterization in global atmospheric code remedied problems with North Pacific atmospheric circulation and excessive equatorial precipitation, (7) development of a unique aerosol analysis technique, the aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer (ATOFMS), which allows real-time analysis of the size and chemical composition of individual aerosol particles, and (8) numerical physics applying Approximate Inertial Manifolds to ocean circulation. 14 refs., 6 figs.

  18. Climate change impact assessment of extreme precipitation on urban flash floods – case study, Aarhus, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Rosbjerg, Dan

    Climate change is expected to cause more intense extreme rainfall events, which will have a severe impact on the risk of flash floods in urban areas. An assessment study was performed for the city of Aarhus, Denmark, analysing different methods of statistical downscaling of climate model projecti......Climate change is expected to cause more intense extreme rainfall events, which will have a severe impact on the risk of flash floods in urban areas. An assessment study was performed for the city of Aarhus, Denmark, analysing different methods of statistical downscaling of climate model...... considered. Urban flooding in Aarhus was simulated with a model that dynamically couples a hydraulic model of the drainage system and a 2D overland flow model. Scenarios representing current and future climate including uncertainties in the climate projections were analysed using synthetic design storms...

  19. Supporting NGSS-aligned Study of Authentic Data about Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalles, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    The subject of climate change holds tremendous opportunity for students to learn how scientists use data to develop and test theories of how the natural world works and appreciate how climate change instantiates cross-cutting NGSS science themes like stability and change, energy and matter, and cause and effect. To do so, students and teachers need help seeing in authentic Earth system data complex climate interactions and generate plans for building greater understanding of the complexities through further data investigation. With ever-growing repositories of global and regional public data and user friendly tools for their display, K-12 educators are challenged to help students study data independently rather than through the usual pre-filtered didactic presentations of data found in textbooks. The paper will describe strategies for facilitating critical thinking about authentic climate-related data in two climate change education projects funded by NASA and NSF, as well as learning outcomes. Data Enhanced Investigations for Climate Change Education (dicce.sri.com) brings data from NASA satellite missions to classrooms. Studying Topography, Orographic Rainfall, and Ecosystems with Geospatial Information Technology (store.sri.com) provides recent climatological and vegetation data about certain study areas in California and New York plus geospatially distributed projected values of temperature, precipitation, and land cover in 2050 and 2099, derived from NCAR's A2 climate change model. Supportive resources help students move from naïve conceptions of simple linear relationships between variables into critical analysis of what other variables could be mediating those relationships. DICCE contains guides for how to interpret multiyear trends that are evident in the NASA mission data in relation to what we know about current climate change. If a learner plots a line of best fit across multiple months or years of regional data and notices that the line is either

  20. Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Prestele

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC represents one of the key drivers of global environmental change. However, the processes and drivers of anthropogenic land-use activity are still overly simplistically implemented in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs. The published results of these models are used in major assessments of processes and impacts of global environmental change, such as the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. Fully coupled models of climate, land use and biogeochemical cycles to explore land use–climate interactions across spatial scales are currently not available. Instead, information on land use is provided as exogenous data from the land-use change modules of integrated assessment models (IAMs to TBMs. In this article, we discuss, based on literature review and illustrative analysis of empirical and modeled LULCC data, three major challenges of this current LULCC representation and their implications for land use–climate interaction studies: (I provision of consistent, harmonized, land-use time series spanning from historical reconstructions to future projections while accounting for uncertainties associated with different land-use modeling approaches, (II accounting for sub-grid processes and bidirectional changes (gross changes across spatial scales, and (III the allocation strategy of independent land-use data at the grid cell level in TBMs. We discuss the factors that hamper the development of improved land-use representation, which sufficiently accounts for uncertainties in the land-use modeling process. We propose that LULCC data-provider and user communities should engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced LULCC time series, which account for the diversity of LULCC modeling and increasingly include empirically based information about sub-grid processes and land-use transition trajectories, to improve the representation of land use in TBMs. Moreover, we suggest

  1. Comparative study on Climate Change Policies in the EU and China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, M.; Han, D.

    2012-04-01

    Both the EU and China are among the largest CO2 emitters in the world; their climate actions and policies have profound impacts on global climate change and may influence the activities in other countries. Evidence of climate change has been observed across Europe and China. Despite the many differences between the two regions, the European Commission and Chinese government support climate change actions. The EU has three priority areas in climate change: 1) understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impact; 2) providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, cost and benefits of different policy options for mitigating climate change and adapting to its impacts; 3) improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climate friendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future. China is very vulnerable to climate change, because of its vast population, fast economic development, and fragile ecological environment. The priority policies in China are: 1) Carbon Trading Policy; 2) Financing Loan Policy (Special Funds for Renewable Energy Development); 3) Energy Efficiency Labelling Policy; 4) Subsidy Policy. In addition, China has formulated the "Energy Conservation Law", "Renewable Energy Law", "Cleaner Production Promotion Law" and "Circular Economy Promotion Law". Under the present EU Framework Programme FP7 there is a large number of funded research activities linked to climate change research. Current climate change research projects concentrate on the carbon cycle, water quality and availability, climate change predictors, predicting future climate and understanding past climates. Climate change-related scientific and technological projects in China are mostly carried out through national scientific and technological research programs. Areas under investigation include projections and impact of global climate change, the future trends of living environment change in China, countermeasures and supporting technologies of global

  2. European Cities Dealing with Climate Issues: Ideas and Tools for a Better Framing of Current Practices.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rocco Papa

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary cities have to deal with numerous challenges, from the growth and aging of urban populations to the scarcity of resources; from environmental degradation to climate change. The latter, also due to the increasing severity of climate-related impacts on urban areas, is widely considered one of the most urgent challenges for urban development in the near future: cities are the main contributors to energy consumption and GHG emissions, paying, at the same time, the highest price for the climate impacts. Thus, climate issues have gained increasing importance in the last decades, both in terms of the metaphors coined by scholars relative to urban future (low-carbon cities, transition cities, smart cities, resilient cities, etc. and in terms of the initiatives undertaken on different institutional levels. Unfortunately, mitigation and adaptation are generally regarded as two different approaches, neglecting the potential synergies and trade-offs between the related strategies. Hence, based on the growing awareness of the need for mainstreaming mitigation and adaptation policies at city level, this study will provide an overview of the state of the art of the mitigation and adaptation initiatives in Italian metropolitan cities. Then, focusing on the concepts of the “smart” and the “resilient” city – recognized as key concepts for reducing CO2 emissions and improving the ability of cities to respond to climate impacts – and with reference to a conceptual framework for building up a smart and resilient urban system carried out in previous research works (Papa et al., 2015, the study will examine case studies of the cities of Rotterdam and Barcelona, highlighting how this framework may improve our understanding and, above all, contribute to better integration of the fragmented on-going strategies and initiatives.

  3. [Current distribution of Schisandra chinensis in China and its predicted responses to climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Li-Le; Zhang, Hai-Ying; Qin, Ling; Yan, Bo-Qian

    2012-09-01

    With integration of literature data, specimens records, and field surveys, the current distribution map of Schisandra chinensis in China was drawn, and, based on this map and considering 21 environmental factors, the future distribution of S. chinensis in China in the 2050s and 2080s under the IPCC A2 and A1B climate change scenarios was predicted by using Maxent software. Currently, the S. chinensis in China occurred in 15 provinces, involving 151 counties, and its distribution area decreased with decreasing latitude and longitude. The main distribution area included Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin. The potential distribution area of S. chinensis in China was 145.12 x 10(4) km2, 48.6% of which were the favorable habitat area, mainly distributed in Changbai Mountains, Xiaoxing'anling Mountains, Daxing'anling Mountains, and the regions between Hebei and Liaoning provinces. The most favorable habitat area only accounted for 0.3%, and was mainly in the Kuandian Manchu Autonomous County, Benxi Manchu Autonomous County, and Huanren Manchu Autonomous County of Liaoning Province, the Antu County and Helong County of Jilin Province, and the Yakeshi City of Inner Mongolia. Under the two climate change scenarios, the potential future distribution area of S. chinensis in China would have a gradual decrease, and the decrement would be larger under A2 than under A1B scenario. By 2050, the distribution area of the S. chinensis under A1B and A2 scenarios would be moderately decreased to 84.0% and 81.5% of the current distribution area, respectively; by 2080, the distribution of S. chinensis under A2 scenario would be dramatically decreased to only 0.5% of the current range, and that under A1B scenario would be decreased to 1/2 of the current range.

  4. Study of longshore current equations for currents in Visakhapatnam beach

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chandramohan, P.; Rao, T.V.N.

    Longshore currents were measured along the Visakhapatnam Beach, Andhra Pradesh, India at weekly intervals from March 1978 to March 1979. Visual observations on breaker characteristics were also made during this period. Using modified Longuet...

  5. The Impacts of Maximum Temperature and Climate Change to Current and Future Pollen Distribution in Skopje, Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Kendrovski

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND. The goal of the present paper was to assess the impact of current and future burden of the ambient temperature to pollen distributions in Skopje. METHODS. In the study we have evaluated a correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere of Skopje and maximum temperature, during the vegetation period of 1996, 2003, 2007 and 2009 as a current burden in context of climate change. For our analysis we have selected 9 representative of each phytoallergen group (trees, grasses, weeds. The concentration of pollen grains has been monitored by a Lanzoni volumetric pollen trap. The correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere and selected meteorological variable from weekly monitoring has been studied with the help of linear regression and correlation coefficients. RESULTS. The prevalence of the sensibilization of standard pollen allergens in Skopje during the some period shows increasing from 16,9% in 1996 to 19,8% in 2009. We detect differences in onset of flowering, maximum and end of the length of seasons for pollen. The pollen distributions and risk increases in 3 main periods: early spring, spring and summer which are the main cause of allergies during these seasons. The largest increase of air temperature due to climate change in Skopje is expected in the summer season. CONCLUSION. The impacts of climate change by increasing of the temperature in the next decades very likely will include impacts on pollen production and differences in current pollen season. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2012; 11(1.000: 35-40

  6. High Resolution Simulation of a Colorado Rockies Extreme Snow and Rain Event in both a Current and Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Liu, Changhai; Gutmann, Ethan; Gochis, David

    2016-04-01

    Modeling of extreme weather events often require very finely resolved treatment of atmospheric circulation structures in order to produce and localize the large moisture fluxes that result in extreme precipitation. This is particularly true for cool season orographic precipitation processes where the representation of the landform can significantly impact vertical velocity profiles and cloud moisture entrainment rates. This study presents results for high resolution regional climate modeling study of the Colorado Headwaters region using an updated version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 4 km horizontal resolution and a hydrological extension package called WRF-Hydro. Previous work has shown that the WRF modeling system can produce credible depictions of winter orographic precipitation over the Colorado Rockies if run at horizontal resolutions warming on total precipitation, snow-rain partitioning and surface hydrological fluxes (evapotranspiration and runoff) will be discussed in the context of how potential changes in temperature impact the amount of precipitation, the phase of precipitation (rain vs. snow) and the timing and amplitude of streamflow responses. The results show using the Pseudo Global Warming technique that intense precipitation rates significantly increased during the event and a significant fraction of the snowfall converts to rain which significantly amplifies the runoff response from one where runoff is produced gradually to one in which runoff is rapidly translated into streamflow values that approach significant flooding risks. Results from a new, CONUS scale high resolution climate simulation of extreme events in a current and future climate will be presented as time permits.

  7. Climate Change Awareness among the High School Students: Case Study from a Climate Vulnerable Country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M.A. Rahman

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is one the worst sufferers of climate change. Climate change awareness creation is pivotal to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Effective dissemination of knowledge among the citizens during high school years is crucial to that end. In Bangladesh, secondary school students follow common curricula which include entries on climate change. This paper investigates the role of the diverse demographic profiles and inherent scholastic background of students on their informedness. The research is based on responses from secondary schools students in Chittagong, Bangladesh. Based on their understanding of climate change, we have constructed the Climate Awareness Index (CAI. Then the relative roles of demographic determinants of the awareness have been compared using the CAI. The quality of schools, and grade, major and merit position of students have affected the CAI values. Besides, the study concluded that the religion, gender, parental education, occupation and income, etc. could affect students’ climate change informedness in Bangladesh.

  8. Studies of Current Dependent Effects at ANKA

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, A S; Huttel, E; Pérez, F; Pont, M; Zimmermann, Frank

    2004-01-01

    The ANKA electron storage ring is operated at energies between 0.5 and 2.5 GeV. A major requirement for a synchrotron light source, such as ANKA, is to achieve a high beam current. A multitude of mostly impedance related effects depend on either bunch or total beam current. This paper gives an overview over the various beam studies performed at ANKA in this context, specifically the observation of current dependent detuning, the determination of the bunch length change with current from a measurement of the ratio between coherent and incoherent synchrotron tune and an assessment of the effective longitudinal loss factor from the current dependent horizontal closed orbit distortion.

  9. Current meter components and other data from FIXED PLATFORMS from Gulf of Guinea and other locations as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) and other projects from 08 July 1976 to 01 April 1982 (NODC Accession 9000067)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter components data were collected from FIXED PLATFORMS in the Gulf of Guinea and other locations from 08 July 1976 to 01 April 1982. Data were collected...

  10. Wind and temperature data from current meter in the TOGA - Pacific Ocean (30 N to 30 S) as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS), 28 May 1994 to 21 March 1995 (NODC Accession 9800041)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Wind and temperature data were collected using current meter in the TOGA Area - Pacific Ocean (30 N to 30 S) from May 28, 1994 to March 21, 1995. Data were submitted...

  11. Current and other data from meters attached to FIXED PLATFORMS in the coastal waters of Florida in support of the Subtropical Atlantic Climate Study 3 (STACS) from 10 November 1980 to 07 June 1983 (NODC Accession 8800120)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current and other data from meters attached to FIXED PLATFORMS in the coastal waters of Florida. Data were collected by University of Miami; Rosenstiel School of...

  12. Current and other data from meters attached to FIXED PLATFORMS in the coastal waters of Florida in support of the Subtropical Atlantic Climate Study 4 (STACS) from 08 June 1983 to 13 December 1983 (NODC Accession 8700019)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current and other data from meters attached to FIXED PLATFORMS in the coastal waters of Florida. Data were collected by University of Miami; Rosenstiel School of...

  13. Current and other data from meters attached to FIXED PLATFORMS in the coastal waters of Florida in support of the Subtropical Atlantic Climate Study 6 (STACS) from 19 June 1984 to 27 March 1987 (NODC Accession 8900060)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current and other data from meters attached to FIXED PLATFORMS in the coastal waters of Florida. Data were collected by University of Miami; Rosenstiel School of...

  14. Carbon and water cycling in a Bornean tropical rainforest under current and future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumagai, Tomo'omi; Katul, Gabriel G.; Porporato, Amilcare; Saitoh, Taku M.; Ohashi, Mizue; Ichie, Tomoaki; Suzuki, Masakazu

    2004-12-01

    We examined how the projected increase in atmospheric CO 2 and concomitant shifts in air temperature and precipitation affect water and carbon fluxes in an Asian tropical rainforest, using a combination of field measurements, simplified hydrological and carbon models, and Global Climate Model (GCM) projections. The model links the canopy photosynthetic flux with transpiration via a bulk canopy conductance and semi-empirical models of intercellular CO 2 concentration, with the transpiration rate determined from a hydrologic balance model. The primary forcing to the hydrologic model are current and projected rainfall statistics. A main novelty in this analysis is that the effect of increased air temperature on vapor pressure deficit ( D) and the effects of shifts in precipitation statistics on net radiation are explicitly considered. The model is validated against field measurements conducted in a tropical rainforest in Sarawak, Malaysia under current climate conditions. On the basis of this model and projected shifts in climatic statistics by GCM, we compute the probability distribution of soil moisture and other hydrologic fluxes. Regardless of projected and computed shifts in soil moisture, radiation and mean air temperature, transpiration was not appreciably altered. Despite increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration ( Ca) and unchanged transpiration, canopy photosynthesis does not significantly increase if Ci/ Ca is assumed constant independent of D (where Ci is the bulk canopy intercellular CO 2 concentration). However, photosynthesis increased by a factor of 1.5 if Ci/ Ca decreased linearly with D as derived from Leuning stomatal conductance formulation [R. Leuning. Plant Cell Environ 1995;18:339-55]. How elevated atmospheric CO 2 alters the relationship between Ci/ Ca and D needs to be further investigated under elevated atmospheric CO 2 given its consequence on photosynthesis (and concomitant carbon sink) projections.

  15. Railway safety climate: a study on organizational development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Yung-Hsiang

    2017-09-07

    The safety climate of an organization is considered a leading indicator of potential risk for railway organizations. This study adopts the perceptual measurement-individual attribute approach to investigate the safety climate of a railway organization. The railway safety climate attributes are evaluated from the perspective of railway system staff. We identify four safety climate dimensions from exploratory factor analysis, namely safety communication, safety training, safety management and subjectively evaluated safety performance. Analytical results indicate that the safety climate differs at vertical and horizontal organizational levels. This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence of the multilevel safety climate in a railway organization, presents possible causes of the differences under various cultural contexts and differentiates between safety climate scales for diverse workgroups within the railway organization. This information can be used to improve the safety sustainability of railway organizations and to conduct safety supervisions for the government.

  16. Several Suggestions on the Climate Change and Its Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    According to the abundant studies,the relevant information and comprehensive analysis of the climate changes,several important problems on the climate changes and its studies were proposed.Based on the temporal distribution of the meteorological disaster of agriculture,the wave theory was expounded so as to draw people's attention on climate changes and to be objective,just and careful about the study.

  17. Climate Literacy: Progress in AMS Climate Studies Undergraduate Course in Meteorology Program at Jackson State University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, S. R.

    2013-12-01

    AMS Climate Studies is an introductory college-level course developed by the American Meteorological Society for implementation at undergraduate institutions nationwide and increasing involvement of under-represented groups The course places students in a dynamic and highly motivational educational environment where they investigate Earth's climate system using real-world environmental data. The AMS Climate Studies course package consists of a textbook, investigations manual, course website, and course management system-compatible files. Instructors can use these resources in combinations that make for an exciting learning experience for their students. The AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project Workshop participation is on a first-come, first-serve basis as determined by the date-of-receipt of the License Order Form. To grow AMS Diversity Programs to their fullest extent, institutions are encouraged to nominate course instructors who did not previously attend Diversity Project workshops. Until three months before the workshop, two-thirds of the workshop positions would be reserved for institutions new to AMS Diversity Projects. The AMS five day course implementation workshop was held in Washington, DC, during May 24-29, 2012. It covered essential course topics in climate science and global climate change, and strategies for course implementation. Talks would feature climate science and sustainability experts from Federal agencies and area research institutions, such as NASA, NOAA, University of Maryland, Howard University, George Mason University, and other Washington, DC, area institutions. The workshop would also include visits to NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. JSU Meteorology Program will be offering AMS Climate Studies undergraduate course under MET 210: Climatology in spring 2014. AMS Climate Studies is offered as a 3 credit hour laboratory course with 2 lectures and 1 lab sessions per week. Although this course places

  18. Providing a Scientific Foundation in Climate Studies for Non-Science Majors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Moran, J. M.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Lambert, J.; Blair, B. A.; Hopkins, E. J.; O'Neill, K. L.; Hyre, H. R.; Nugnes, K. A.; Moses, M. N.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change has become a politically charged topic, creating the necessity for a scientifically literate population. Therefore, the American Meteorological Society (AMS), in partnership with NASA, has produced an introductory level, climate science course that engages students, allows for course flexibility, and boosts scientific knowledge about climate. This course shares NASA’s goal of observing, understanding, and modeling the Earth system, to discover how it is changing, to better predict change, and to understand the consequences for life. In Spring 2010, AMS Climate Studies was piloted to determine the most effective method to foster an understanding of some of the more difficult concepts of climate science. This study was offered as part of the NASA grant. This presentation will report the results of that study. Faculty and students from fourteen colleges and universities throughout the country evaluated the course using pre- and post-test questions, which included multiple choice and short answer questions, weekly course content evaluations, and an extensive post-course evaluation. The large majority of participating teachers rated the overall course, scientific content, internet delivery, and study materials as ‘good’, the most positive response available. Feedback from faculty members as well as suggestions from NASA reviewers were used to enhance the final version of the textbook and Investigations Manual for the Fall 2010 academic semester. Following the proven course work of AMS Weather and AMS Ocean Studies, AMS Climate Studies is a turnkey package utilizing both printed and online materials. It covers topics such as the water in Earth’s climate system, paleoclimates, along with climate change and public policy. The Investigations include 30 complimentary lab-style activities including the Conceptual Energy Model, which explores the flow of energy from space to Earth. Additionally, the course website features Current Climate Studies where

  19. Modeling Nitrogen Losses in Conventional and Advanced Soil-Based Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems under Current and Changing Climate Conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Morales

    Full Text Available Most of the non-point source nitrogen (N load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS. Nitrogen compounds cause eutrophication, depleting the oxygen in marine ecosystems. OWTS rely on physical, chemical and biological soil processes to treat wastewater and these processes may be affected by climate change. We simulated the fate and transport of N in different types of OWTS drainfields, or soil treatment areas (STA under current and changing climate scenarios, using 2D/3D HYDRUS software. Experimental data from a mesocosm-scale study, including soil moisture content, and total N, ammonium (NH4+ and nitrate (NO3- concentrations, were used to calibrate the model. A water content-dependent function was used to compute the nitrification and denitrification rates. Three types of drainfields were simulated: (1 a pipe-and-stone (P&S, (2 advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (PSND and (3 Geomat (GEO, a variation of SND. The model was calibrated with acceptable goodness-of-fit between the observed and measured values. Average root mean square error (RSME ranged from 0.18 and 2.88 mg L-1 for NH4+ and 4.45 mg L-1 to 9.65 mg L-1 for NO3- in all drainfield types. The calibrated model was used to estimate N fluxes for both conventional and advanced STAs under current and changing climate conditions, i.e. increased soil temperature and higher water table. The model computed N losses from nitrification and denitrification differed little from measured losses in all STAs. The modeled N losses occurred mostly as NO3- in water outputs, accounting for more than 82% of N inputs in all drainfields. Losses as N2 were estimated to be 10.4% and 9.7% of total N input concentration for SND and Geo, respectively. The highest N2 losses, 17.6%, were estimated for P&S. Losses as N2 increased to 22%, 37% and 21% under changing climate conditions for Geo, PSND and P&S, respectively. These findings can provide

  20. Modeling Nitrogen Losses in Conventional and Advanced Soil-Based Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems under Current and Changing Climate Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Ivan; Cooper, Jennifer; Amador, José A; Boving, Thomas B

    2016-01-01

    Most of the non-point source nitrogen (N) load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Nitrogen compounds cause eutrophication, depleting the oxygen in marine ecosystems. OWTS rely on physical, chemical and biological soil processes to treat wastewater and these processes may be affected by climate change. We simulated the fate and transport of N in different types of OWTS drainfields, or soil treatment areas (STA) under current and changing climate scenarios, using 2D/3D HYDRUS software. Experimental data from a mesocosm-scale study, including soil moisture content, and total N, ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-) concentrations, were used to calibrate the model. A water content-dependent function was used to compute the nitrification and denitrification rates. Three types of drainfields were simulated: (1) a pipe-and-stone (P&S), (2) advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (PSND) and (3) Geomat (GEO), a variation of SND. The model was calibrated with acceptable goodness-of-fit between the observed and measured values. Average root mean square error (RSME) ranged from 0.18 and 2.88 mg L-1 for NH4+ and 4.45 mg L-1 to 9.65 mg L-1 for NO3- in all drainfield types. The calibrated model was used to estimate N fluxes for both conventional and advanced STAs under current and changing climate conditions, i.e. increased soil temperature and higher water table. The model computed N losses from nitrification and denitrification differed little from measured losses in all STAs. The modeled N losses occurred mostly as NO3- in water outputs, accounting for more than 82% of N inputs in all drainfields. Losses as N2 were estimated to be 10.4% and 9.7% of total N input concentration for SND and Geo, respectively. The highest N2 losses, 17.6%, were estimated for P&S. Losses as N2 increased to 22%, 37% and 21% under changing climate conditions for Geo, PSND and P&S, respectively. These findings can provide practitioners

  1. Classical Ecological Restoration and its Current Challenges: Assisted Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilar A. Gómez-Ruiz

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecological restoration is a very active area in ecology and of great importance for ecosystems management. Despite of being a relatively young discipline, the classical concepts of restoration seem, at present, impractical considering the great challenges generated by modification and destruction of ecosystems. This is due to anthropic activities (deforestation, change of land use, pollution and global climate change. In the classic definition of restoration, the objective is to recover the degraded ecosystem to the same conditions of a historical reference state. However, nowadays the ecosystems return to a state prior to the disturbances seems unviable, because the thresholds of resilience have already been overcome. Additionally, climate change is causing environmental changes at an unprecedented rate. For this reason, ecological restoration needs to unite efforts of diverse actors to recover ecosystems that can be sustainable and functional in the future, where the species could be able to tolerate the environmental conditions that will exist in the long term. Assisted migration has been proposed as a conservation strategy; it is defined as the translocation of species to new locations outside their known range of distribution. In the current context of loss of diversity and ecosystems, this strategy could be fundamental for the formation of new communities that can later become novel ecosystems where species that are fundamental to the dynamics of ecosystems can persist and, at the same time, recover function, structure and resilience.

  2. Beyond dichotomies: Gender and intersecting inequalities in climate change studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djoudi, Houria; Locatelli, Bruno; Vaast, Chloe; Asher, Kiran; Brockhaus, Maria; Basnett Sijapati, Bimbika

    2016-12-01

    Climate change and related adaptation strategies have gender-differentiated impacts. This paper reviews how gender is framed in 41 papers on climate change adaptation through an intersectionality lens. The main findings show that while intersectional analysis has demonstrated many advantages for a comprehensive study of gender, it has not yet entered the field of climate change and gender. In climate change studies, gender is mostly handled in a men-versus-women dichotomy and little or no attention has been paid to power and social and political relations. These gaps which are echoed in other domains of development and gender research depict a 'feminization of vulnerability' and reinforce a 'victimization' discourse within climate change studies. We argue that a critical intersectional assessment would contribute to unveil agency and emancipatory pathways in the adaptation process by providing a better understanding of how the differential impacts of climate change shape, and are shaped by, the complex power dynamics of existing social and political relations.

  3. Multiscale Study of Currents Affected by Topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    boundary layers to influence the ambient larger-scale flow. We have studied these issues through ocean model simulations, adjoint sensitivity...circulation be monitored from pressure gauges, temperature sensors, current meters, or other measurements near the feature? • The influence of the

  4. Current practices and future opportunities for policy on climate change and invasive species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyke, Christopher R; Thomas, Roxanne; Porter, Read D; Hellmann, Jessica J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Lodge, David M; Chavarria, Gabriela

    2008-06-01

    Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.

  5. 3D Geo-Information in Urban Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrescu, F.; Aldea, M.; Luca, O.; Iacoboaea, C.; Gaman, F.; Parlow, E.

    2016-10-01

    3D geo-information is essential for urban climate studies. It is obvious that both natural environment and built-up environment play the fundamental role in defining the climatic conditions for urban areas, which affect the quality of human life and human comfort. The paper presents the main categories of 3D geo-information used in urban climate studies and roles in creating and operating the numerical models specially designed to simulate urban planning scenarios and improvement of the urban climate situation.

  6. Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies.

  7. Integrating Climate Projections into Multi-Level City Planning: A Texas Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayhoe, K.; Gelca, R.; Baumer, Z.; Gold, G.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change impacts on energy and water are a serious concern for many cities across the United States. Regional projections from the National Assessment process, or state-specific efforts as in California and Delaware, are typically used to quantify impacts at the regional scale. However, these are often insufficient to provide information at the scale of decision-making for an individual city. Here, we describe a multi-level approach to developing and integrating usable climate information into planning, using a case study from the City of Austin in Texas, a state where few official climate resources are available. Spearheaded by the Office of Sustainability in collaboration with Austin Water, the first step was to characterize observed trends and future projections of how global climate change might affect Austin's current climate. The City then assembled a team of city experts, consulting engineers, and climate scientists to develop a methodology to assess impacts on regional hydrology as part of its Integrated Water Resource Plan, Austin's 100-year water supply and demand planning effort, an effort which included calculating a range of climate indicators and developing and evaluating a new approach to generating climate inputs - including daily streamflow and evaporation - for existing water availability models. This approach, which brings together a range of public, private, and academic experts to support a stakeholder-initiated planning effort, provides concrete insights into the critical importance of multi-level, long-term engagement for development and application of actionable climate science at the local to regional scale.

  8. Regional climate change study requires new temperature datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kaicun; Zhou, Chunlüe

    2017-04-01

    Analyses of global mean air temperature (Ta), i. e., NCDC GHCN, GISS, and CRUTEM4, are the fundamental datasets for climate change study and provide key evidence for global warming. All of the global temperature analyses over land are primarily based on meteorological observations of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) and their averages (T2) because in most weather stations, the measurements of Tmax and Tmin may be the only choice for a homogenous century-long analysis of mean temperature. Our studies show that these datasets are suitable for long-term global warming studies. However, they may have substantial biases in quantifying local and regional warming rates, i.e., with a root mean square error of more than 25% at 5 degree grids. From 1973 to 1997, the current datasets tend to significantly underestimate the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimate the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. Similar results revealed during the period 1998-2013, the warming hiatus period, indicate the use of T2 enlarges the spatial contrast of temperature trends. This is because T2 over land only samples air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. For better regional climate change detection and attribution, we suggest creating new global mean air temperature datasets based on the recently available high spatiotemporal resolution meteorological observations, i.e., daily four observations weather station since 1960s. These datasets will not only help investigate dynamical processes on temperature variances but also help better evaluate the reanalyzed and modeled simulations of temperature and make some substantial improvements for other related climate variables in models, especially over regional and seasonal aspects.

  9. The ENIQ pilot study: current status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemaitre, P.; Eriksen, B.; Crutzen, S. [European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Petten (Netherlands); Hansch, M. [Preussische Elektrizitaets-AG (Preussenelektra), Hannover (Germany); Whittle, J. [AEA Technology, Warrington (United Kingdom)

    1998-11-01

    A pilot study is currently being carried out by ENIQ (European Network for Inspection Qualification) in order to explore the issues involved in inspection qualification applied along the general principles of the European methodology. The components selected for the pilot study are austenitic pipe to pipe and pipe to elbows welds typical of those in BWR recirculation loops. A range of defect parameters has been defined. A suitable inspection procedure designed to find the designated defects will be applied to geometrically representative test pieces. The procedure/equipment will be qualified through open trials and technical justification. The personnel qualification will be done in a blind way. Once all features of the inspection system will have been qualified an in-service inspection will be simulated in order to test the feasibility of the qualification approach followed. In this paper the current status of this pilot study is discussed. (orig.)

  10. Academic Social Climate--A Key Aspect in Architectural Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidovitch, Nitza; Casakin, Hernan

    2015-01-01

    The present research investigates academic social climate in architectural studies as perceived by students. It studies the importance that the various measures of academic social climate have in the studio and in architectural classes. It also investigates the relation between the personal background of students and their sense of academic social…

  11. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engels, S.; van Geel, B.

    2012-01-01

    Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of t

  12. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engels, S.; van Geel, B.

    2012-01-01

    Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of t

  13. Relative roles of local disturbance, current climate and palaeoclimate in determining phylogenetic and functional diversity in Chinese forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Feng

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The main processes underlying the generation and maintenance of biodiversity include both local factors such as competition and abiotic filtering and regional forces such as palaeoclimate, speciation and dispersal. While the effects of regional and local drivers on species diversity are increasingly studied, their relative importance for other aspects of diversity, notably phylogenetic and functional diversity is so far little studied. Here, we link data from large Chinese forest plots to data on current and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM climate as well as local disturbance regimes to study their relative roles in determining woody plant phylogenetic and functional diversity in this important hotspot for woody plant diversity. Local disturbance was the best predictor of functional diversity as represented by maximum canopy height (Hmax, probably reflecting the dominant role of competition for light in determining the forest Hmax structure. In contrast, the LGM-present anomaly in temperature was the factor with the strongest explanatory power for phylogenetic diversity, with modern climate also important. Hence, local contemporary and regional historical factors have highly contrasting importance for the geographic patterns of the functional and phylogenetic aspects of Chinese forest woody plant diversity. Importantly, contemporary factors are of overriding importance for functional diversity, while palaeoclimate has left a strong signature in the phylogenetic diversity patterns.

  14. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Yin, X.; Zhu, Y.; Boote, K.; Adam, M.; Bregaglio, S.; Buis, S.; Confalonieri, R.; Fumoto, T.; Gaydon, D.; Marcaida III, M.; Nakagawa, H.; Oriol, P.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Singh, B.; Singh, U.; Tang, L.; Yoshida, H.; Zhang, Z.; Bouman, B.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluat

  15. Study of Climate effect on evapotranspiration change procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asady, A.; Sharifan, H.

    2009-04-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most important of parameters in water cycle. This parameter changes in climate different conditions. In this manner the probability of ET is important for design of irrigation systems. This study investigated climate effect on evapotranspiration changes procedure. Thus ET was estimated by Hargreaves-Samani (H-S) method in the some of regions: Gorgan(semi wet,), Gonbad (semi dry) , Maraveh-Tappeh (semi dry to dry). Then diagrams of ET were drawn for different probabilities. Investigation shown that if climate was drier, irrigation periods increased and difference of ET averages decreased. Keyword : Evapotranspiration, Probability, Hargreave-Samani method, Climate, water use.

  16. [Current registry studies of acute ischemic stroke].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veltkamp, R; Jüttler, E; Pfefferkorn, T; Purrucker, J; Ringleb, P

    2012-10-01

    Study registries offer the opportunity to evaluate the effects of new therapies or to observe the consequences of new treatments in clinical practice. The SITS-MOST registry confirmed the validity of findings from randomized trials on intravenous thrombolysis concerning safety and efficacy in the clinical routine. Current study registries concerning new interventional thrombectomy techniques suggest a high recanalization rate; however, the clinical benefit can only be evaluated in randomized, controlled trials. Similarly, the experiences of the BASICS registry on basilar artery occlusion have led to the initiation of a controlled trial. The benefit of hemicraniectomy in malignant middle cerebral artery infarction has been demonstrated by the pooled analysis of three randomized trials. Numerous relevant aspects are currently documented in the DESTINY-R registry. Finally, the recently started RASUNOA registry examines diagnostic and therapeutic aspects of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke occurring during therapy with new oral anticoagulants.

  17. Climatic modulation of recent trends in ocean acidification in the California Current System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turi, G.; Lachkar, Z.; Gruber, N.; Münnich, M.

    2016-01-01

    We reconstruct the evolution of ocean acidification in the California Current System (CalCS) from 1979 through 2012 using hindcast simulations with an eddy-resolving ocean biogeochemical model forced with observation-based variations of wind and fluxes of heat and freshwater. We find that domain-wide pH and {{{Ω }}}{arag} in the top 60 m of the water column decreased significantly over these three decades by about -0.02 decade-1 and -0.12 decade-1, respectively. In the nearshore areas of northern California and Oregon, ocean acidification is reconstructed to have progressed much more rapidly, with rates up to 30% higher than the domain-wide trends. Furthermore, ocean acidification penetrated substantially into the thermocline, causing a significant domain-wide shoaling of the aragonite saturation depth of on average -33 m decade-1 and up to -50 m decade-1 in the nearshore area of northern California. This resulted in a coast-wide increase in nearly undersaturated waters and the appearance of waters with {{{Ω }}}{arag}\\lt 1, leading to a substantial reduction of habitat suitability. Averaged over the whole domain, the main driver of these trends is the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere. However, recent changes in the climatic forcing have substantially modulated these trends regionally. This is particularly evident in the nearshore regions, where the total trends in pH are up to 50% larger and trends in {{{Ω }}}{arag} and in the aragonite saturation depth are even twice to three times larger than the purely atmospheric CO2-driven trends. This modulation in the nearshore regions is a result of the recent marked increase in alongshore wind stress, which brought elevated levels of dissolved inorganic carbon to the surface via upwelling. Our results demonstrate that changes in the climatic forcing need to be taken into consideration in future projections of the progression of ocean acidification in coastal upwelling regions.

  18. Species distributions and climate change:current patterns and future scenarios for biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian

    ' strategies to cope with climate change. Therefore, although we need to rethink species' abilities to cope with rapid climate change, the interactions of different threats impose severe challenges for biodiversity. In a global assessment of future threats for amphibian diversity, I investigate the geography......-thirds of the areas harboring the richest amphibian faunas may be heavily impacted by at least one of the major threats by 2080. The stability of the climatic niche influences the need for a species to track climate change via dispersal, or its potential to adapt to novel climatic conditions. I therefore explore...... the phylogenetic signal in climatic niches of the world's amphibians, which serves as a surrogate quantification of niche stability. Results indicate an overall tendency of phylogenetic signal to be present in realised climatic niches, but signal strength varies across biogeographical regions and among amphibian...

  19. Holocene climate variability in the NE Pacific: Insight from connections between the Gulf of Alaska and the California Current System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, B. P.; Addison, J. A.

    2009-12-01

    Historically, decadal-scale climatic change in the North Pacific region appears to be characterized by circulation modes with coherent and recognizable spatial patterns (i.e., PDO). Examination of trends in paleo-records from widespread regions, allow recognition of how these modes have varied over time. Changes in patterns of correlations of proxies between regions suggest several periods of reorganization of ocean-atmospheric circulation during the Holocene. Major shifts appear to have occurred during climatic transitions into the Neoglacial period (ca 4000 BP), and into and out of the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. AD 1200 and 1850). Recent paleoclimatic studies from Mt, Logan ice cores and elsewhere suggest these transitions reflect shifts between atmospheric circulation modes of more zonal vs. more meridional flow. These shifts in climate can be tracked into variability in primary productivity and higher trophic levels, such as pelagic fish, in the North Pacific marine ecosystem. Within the Gulf of Alaska, new high-resolution reconstructions of ocean paleoproductivity based on multiproxy analysis of sediment cores suggest persistent variability over multidecadal scales, punctuated by abrupt state changes in overall productivity level. Such “mega-regime shifts” are of a different nature and larger amplitude than historical regime-shifts. Records of Alaskan salmon are generally positively correlated with Gulf of Alaska productivity. Interestingly, records of California Current sardine and anchovy abundance reveal different relationships to Alaska salmon abundance during the LIA relative to historical observations. It is likely that a different pattern of ocean-atmospheric circulation during the LIA, resulted in different relationships between these regional ecosystems.

  20. Eliciting climate experts' knowledge to address model uncertainties in regional climate projections: a case study of Guanacaste, Northwest Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossmann, I.; Steyn, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    Global general circulation models typically cannot provide the detailed and accurate regional climate information required by stakeholders for climate adaptation efforts, given their limited capacity to resolve the regional topography and changes in local sea surface temperature, wind and circulation patterns. The study region in Northwest Costa Rica has a tropical wet-dry climate with a double-peak wet season. During the dry season the central Costa Rican mountains prevent tropical Atlantic moisture from reaching the region. Most of the annual precipitation is received following the northward migration of the ITCZ in May that allows the region to benefit from moist southwesterly flow from the tropical Pacific. The wet season begins with a short period of "early rains" and is interrupted by the mid-summer drought associated with the intensification and westward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high in late June. Model projections for the 21st century indicate a lengthening and intensification of the mid-summer drought and a weakening of the early rains on which current crop cultivation practices rely. We developed an expert elicitation to systematically address uncertainties in the available model projections of changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Our approach extends an elicitation approach developed previously at Carnegie Mellon University. Experts in the climate of the study region or Central American climate were asked to assess the mechanisms driving precipitation during each part of the season, uncertainties regarding these mechanisms, expected changes in each mechanism in a warming climate, and the capacity of current models to reproduce these processes. To avoid overconfidence bias, a step-by-step procedure was followed to estimate changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation during each part of the season. The questions drew upon interviews conducted with the regions stakeholders to assess their climate information needs. This

  1. Physical Impacts of Climate Change on the Western US Electricity System: A Scoping Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coughlin, Katie; Goldman, Charles

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents an exploratory study of the possible physical impacts of climate change on the electric power system, and how these impacts could be incorporated into resource planning in the Western United States. While many aspects of climate change and energy have been discussed in the literature, there has not yet been a systematic review of the relationship between specific physical effects and the quantitative analyses that are commonly used in planning studies. The core of the problem is to understand how the electric system is vulnerable to physical weather risk, and how to make use of information from climate models to characterize the way these risks may evolve over time, including a treatment of uncertainty. In this paper, to provide the necessary technical background in climate science, we present an overview of the basic physics of climate and explain some of the methodologies used in climate modeling studies, particularly the importance of emissions scenarios. We also provide a brief survey of recent climate-related studies relevant to electric system planning in the Western US. To define the institutional context, we discuss the core elements of the resource and reliability planning processes used currently by utilities and by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. To illustrate more precisely how climate-related risk could be incorporated into modeling exercises, we discuss three idealized examples. Overall, we argue that existing methods of analysis can and should be extended to encompass the uncertainties related to future climate. While the focus here is on risk related to physical impacts, the same principles apply to a consideration of how future climate change policy decisions might impact the design and functioning of the electric grid. We conclude with some suggestions and recommendations on how to begin developing this approach within the existing electric system planning framework for the West.

  2. The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Zhenong [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA; Zhuang, Qianlai [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA; Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA; Wang, Jiali [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA; Archontoulis, Sotirios V. [Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames IA 50011 USA; Zobel, Zachary [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana, Urbana IL 61801 USA; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA

    2017-01-25

    Heat and drought stresses are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here we present a study that quantified the current and future yield responses of US rainfed maize and soybean to climate extremes, and for the first time characterized spatial shifts in the relative importance of temperature, heat and drought stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), driven by the high-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model downscaled future climate scenarios at two time slices (1995-2005 and 2085-2094). Our results show that climatic yield gaps and interannual variability are greater in the core production area than in the remaining US by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of change is highly dependent on the current climate sensitivity and vulnerability. Elevated CO2 partially offsets the climatic yield gaps and reduces interannual yield variability, and effect is more prominent in soybean than in maize. We demonstrate that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize and soybean production, although its dominant role gradually gives way to other impacts of heat extremes. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stressors are characterized by increases in the concurrent stress, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering drought and extreme heat simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management.

  3. Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, J.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.

    1996-01-01

    The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

  4. A study of model bivalve siphonal currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monismith, Stephen G.; Koseff, Jeffrey R.; Thompson, Janet K.; O'Riordan, Catherine A.; Nepf, Heidi M.

    1990-01-01

    We carried out experiments studying the hydrodynamics of bivalve siphonal currents in a laboratory flume. Rather than use living animals, we devised a simple, model siphon pair connected to a pump. Fluorescence-based flow visualization was used to characterize siphon-jet flows for several geometric configurations and flow speeds. These measurements show that the boundary-layer velocity profile, siphon height, siphon pair orientation, and size of siphon structure all affect the vertical distribution of the excurrent flow downstream of the siphon pair and the fraction of excurrent that is refiltered. The observed flows may effect both the clearance rate of an entire population of siphonate bivalves as well as the efficiency of feeding of any individual. Our results imply that field conditions are properly represented in laboratory flume studies of phytoplankton biomass losses to benthic bivalves when the shear velocity and bottom roughness are matched to values found in the field. Numerical models of feeding by a bivalve population should include an effective sink distribution which is created by the combined incurrent-excurrent flow field. Near-bed flows need to be accounted for to properly represent these benthic-pelagic exchanges. We also present velocity measurements made with a laser-Doppler anemometer (LDA) for a single configuration (siphons flush with bed, inlet downstream) that show that the siphonal currents have a significant local effect on the properties of a turbulent boundary layer.

  5. Climate Change Preparedness: A Knowledge and Attitudes Study in Southern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edema Ojomo

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change is projected to adversely impact freshwater resources, and in many settings these impacts are already apparent. In Nigeria, these impacts can be especially severe because of limited adaptive capacity. Understanding the knowledge and attitudes of current and future Nigerian decision-makers is important to preparing Nigeria for climate change impacts. This paper examines the knowledge and attitudes of university students and government officials about the causes, effects, and priority given to climate change in Nigeria. Paper surveys were distributed to 379 study participants in Akwa Ibom and Lagos states of Nigeria. The findings reveal that approximately 90% of study participants believe that human activities are a significant cause of climate change, with no significant difference between ministry officials’ and students’ responses. Participants were less knowledgeable about the effects of climate change on Nigeria as a whole, but more aware of impacts relevant to Southern Nigeria, where study sites were located. Personal experience seemed to play a role in the knowledge and attitudes of respondents. Due to the varied climate of the country, campaigns to ensure comprehensive knowledge of climate change impacts to the entire country may be helpful.

  6. Interactive effects of air pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems in the United States: current understanding and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Mark Fenn; Steven McNulty; Fengming Yuan; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles Driscoll; Tom Meixner

    2013-01-01

    A review of the current status of air pollution and climate change (CC) in the United States from a perspective of their impacts on forest ecosystems is provided. Ambient ozone (O3) and nitrogen (N) deposition have important and widespread ecological impacts in U.S. forests. Effects of sulphurous (S) air pollutants and other trace pollutants have...

  7. Will dragonblood survive the next period of climate change? Current and future potential distribution of Dracaena cinnabari (Socotra, Yemen)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attorre, F.; Francesconi, F.; Taleb, N.; Scholte, P.; Saed, A.; Alfo, M.; Bruno, F.

    2007-01-01

    The potential impact of climate change on Dracaena cinnabari, a spectacular relict of the Mio-Pliocene Laurasian subtropical forest in Socotra (Yemen), was analysed. Current distribution, abundance and vertical structure of D. cinnabari populations were assessed with 74 plots in nine remnant areas.

  8. A western boundary current eddy characterisation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribbe, Joachim; Brieva, Daniel

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of an eddy census for the East Australian Current (EAC) region yielded a total of 497 individual short-lived (7-28 days) cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies for the period 1993 to 2015. This was an average of about 23 eddies per year. 41% of the tracked individual cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies were detected off southeast Queensland between about 25 °S and 29 °S. This is the region where the flow of the EAC intensifies forming a swift western boundary current that impinges near Fraser Island on the continental shelf. This zone was also identified as having a maximum in detected short-lived cyclonic eddies. A total of 94 (43%) individual cyclonic eddies or about 4-5 per year were tracked in this region. The census found that these potentially displaced entrained water by about 115 km with an average displacement speed of about 4 km per day. Cyclonic eddies were likely to contribute to establishing an on-shelf longshore northerly flow forming the western branch of the Fraser Island Gyre and possibly presented an important cross-shelf transport process in the life cycle of temperate fish species of the EAC domain. In-situ observations near western boundary currents previously documented the entrainment, off-shelf transport and export of near shore water, nutrients, sediments, fish larvae and the renewal of inner shelf water due to short-lived eddies. This study found that these cyclonic eddies potentially play an important off-shelf transport process off the central east Australian coast.

  9. A Case Study: Climate Change Decision Support for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, Flint Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, G. N.; McMahon, G.; Friesen, N.; Carney, S.

    2011-12-01

    Riverside Technology, inc. has developed a Climate Change Decision Support System (DSS) to provide water managers with a tool to explore a range of current Global Climate Model (GCM) projections to evaluate their potential impacts on streamflow and the reliability of future water supplies. The system was developed as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project. The DSS uses downscaled GCM data as input to small-scale watershed models to produce time series of projected undepleted streamflow for various emission scenarios and GCM simulations. Until recently, water managers relied on historical streamflow data for water resources planning. In many parts of the country, great effort has been put into estimating long-term historical undepleted streamflow accounting for regulation, diversions, and return flows to support planning and water rights administration. In some cases, longer flow records have been constructed using paleohydrologic data in an attempt to capture climate variability beyond what is evident during the observed historical record. Now, many water managers are recognizing that historical data may not be representative of an uncertain climate future, and they have begun to explore the use of climate projections in their water resources planning. The Climate Change DSS was developed to support water managers in planning by accounting for both climate variability and potential climate change. In order to use the information for impact analysis, the projected streamflow time series can be exported and substituted for the historical streamflow data traditionally applied in their system operations models for water supply planning. This paper presents a case study in which climate-adjusted flows are coupled with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ResSim model for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint (ACF) River basins. The study demonstrates how climate scenarios can be used

  10. Current Climate Data Set Documentation Standards: Somewhere between Anagrams and Full Disclosure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleig, A. J.

    2008-12-01

    In the 17th century scientists, concerned with establishing primacy for their discoveries while maintaining control of their intellectual property, often published their results as anagrams. Robert Hooke's initial publication in 1676 of his law of elasticity in the form ceiiinossttuv which he revealed two years later as "Ut tension sic vis" or "of the extension, so the force" is one of the better known examples although Galileo, Newton, and many others used the same approach. Fortunately the idea of open publication in scientific journals subject to peer review as a cornerstone of the scientific method gradually became established and is now the norm. Unfortunately though even peer reviewed publication does not necessarily lead to full disclosure. One example of this occurs in the production, review and distribution of large scale data sets of climate variables. Validation papers describe how the data was made in concept but do not provide adequate documentation of the process. Complete provenance of the resulting data sets including description of the exact input files, processing environment, and actual processing code are not required as part of the production and archival effort. A user of the data may be assured by the publication and peer review that the data is considered to be good and usable for scientific investigation but will not know exactly how the data set was made. The problem with this lack of knowledge may be most apparent when considering questions of climate change. Future measurements of the same geophysical parameter will surely be derived from a different observational system than the one used in creating today's data sets. An obvious task in assessing change between the present and the future data set will be to determine how much of the change is because the parameter changed and how much is because the measurement system changed. This will be hard to do without complete knowledge of how the predecessor data set was made. Automated

  11. CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Ballard, Tristan; Sun, Ge; Jeuland, Marc

    2016-05-01

    Kiremt-season (June-September) precipitation provides a significant water supply for Ethiopia, particularly in the central and northern regions. The response of Kiremt-season precipitation to climate change is thus of great concern to water resource managers. However, the complex processes that control Kiremt-season precipitation challenge the capability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately simulate precipitation amount and variability. This in turn raises questions about their utility for predicting future changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on Kiremt-season precipitation using state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Compared to models with a coarse resolution, high-resolution models (horizontal resolution RCP) 4.5 scenario, these high-resolution models project an increase in precipitation over central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, but a decrease in precipitation over the southern part of the country. Such a dipole pattern is attributable to the intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) in a warmer climate, which influences Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation mainly by modulating atmospheric vertical motion. Diagnosis of the omega equation demonstrates that an intensified NASH increases (decreases) the advection of warm air and positive vorticity into the central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley (southern part of the country), enhancing upward motion over the northern Rift Valley but decreasing elsewhere. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the high-resolution models project an intensification of the NASH by 15 (3 × 105 m2 s-2) geopotential meters (stream function) at the 850-hPa level, contributing to the projected precipitation change over Ethiopia. The influence of the NASH on Kiremt-season precipitation becomes more evident in the future due to the offsetting effects of two other major circulation systems: the East African Low

  12. Climate change, water stress, conflict and migration: Taking stock of current insights through a vulnerability lens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermans, L.M.

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing awareness in international policy circles that climate change may be a driver of increased migration flows. In addition to political refugees and economic migrants, climate change-induced migration and environmental migrants are increasingly recognized as categories in human

  13. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  14. Climate Change Education: Preparing Future and Current Business Leaders--A Workshop Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storksdieck, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses challenges as well as opportunities for businesses and, broadly speaking for the entire economy. Businesses will be challenged to provide services or products with less harmful influence on the climate; respond to a changing policy, regulatory, and market environment; and provide new services and products to help address the…

  15. Climate Change Education: Preparing Future and Current Business Leaders--A Workshop Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storksdieck, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses challenges as well as opportunities for businesses and, broadly speaking for the entire economy. Businesses will be challenged to provide services or products with less harmful influence on the climate; respond to a changing policy, regulatory, and market environment; and provide new services and products to help address the…

  16. Climate change, water stress, conflict and migration: Taking stock of current insights through a vulnerability lens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermans, L.M.

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing awareness in international policy circles that climate change may be a driver of increased migration flows. In addition to political refugees and economic migrants, climate change-induced migration and environmental migrants are increasingly recognized as categories in human migra

  17. Extratropical cyclone classification and its use in climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catto, J. L.

    2016-06-01

    Extratropical cyclones have long been known to be important for midlatitude weather. It is therefore important that our current state-of-the-art climate models are able to realistically represent these features, in order that we can have confidence in how they are projected to change in a warming climate. Despite the observation that these cyclones are extremely variable in their structure and features, there have, over the years, been numerous attempts to classify or group them. Such classifications can provide insight into the different cloud structures, airflows, and dynamical forcing mechanisms within the different cyclone types. This review collects and details as many classification techniques as possible, and may therefore act as a reference guide to classifications. These classifications offer the opportunity to improve the way extratropical cyclone evaluation in climate models is currently done by giving more insight into the dynamical and physical processes that occur in climate models (rather than just evaluating the mean state over a broad region as is often done). Examples of where these ideas have been used, or could be used, are reviewed. Finally, the potential impacts of future climate changes on extratropical cyclones are detailed. The ways in which the classification techniques could improve our understanding of future changes in extratropical cyclones and their impacts are given.

  18. A longitudinal study of an intervention to improve road safety climate: climate as an organizational boundary spanner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naveh, Eitan; Katz-Navon, Tal

    2015-01-01

    This study presents and tests an intervention to enhance organizational climate and expands existing conceptualization of organizational climate to include its influence on employee behaviors outside the organization's physical boundaries. In addition, by integrating the literatures of climate and work-family interface, the study explored climate spillover and crossover from work to the home domain. Focusing on an applied practical problem within organizations, we investigated the example of road safety climate and employees' and their families' driving, using a longitudinal study design of road safety intervention versus control groups. Results demonstrated that the intervention increased road safety climate and decreased the number of traffic violation tickets and that road safety climate mediated the relationship between the intervention and the number of traffic violation tickets. Road safety climate spilled over to the family domain but did not cross over to influence family members' driving.

  19. Contributions to Future Stratospheric Climate Change: An Idealized Chemistry-Climate Model Sensitivity Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    Within the framework of an idealized model sensitivity study, three of the main contributors to future stratospheric climate change are evaluated: increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, ozone recovery, and changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These three contributors are explored in combination and separately, to test the interactions between ozone and climate; the linearity of their contributions to stratospheric climate change is also assessed. In a simplified chemistry-climate model, stratospheric global mean temperature is most sensitive to CO2 doubling, followed by ozone depletion, then by increased SSTs. At polar latitudes, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere is more sensitive to changes in CO2, SSTs and O3 than is the Southern Hemisphere (SH); the opposing responses to ozone depletion under low or high background CO2 concentrations, as seen with present-day SSTs, are much weaker and are not statistically significant under enhanced SSTs. Consistent with previous studies, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is found to increase in an idealized future climate; SSTs contribute most to this increase in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, while CO2 and ozone changes contribute most in the stratosphere and mesosphere.

  20. Climate Smart Agriculture: Synthesis of case studies in Ghana, Kenya and Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hengsdijk, H.; Conijn, J.G.; Verhagen, A.

    2015-01-01

    This study contributes to the current debate on climate smart agriculture and development in Africa, specifically in relation to farm size, food security and intensification in rain fed farming areas. Although the different analyses are rough, because of a combination of incomplete knowledge and

  1. Climate Smart Agriculture: Synthesis of case studies in Ghana, Kenya and Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hengsdijk, H.; Conijn, J.G.; Verhagen, A.

    2015-01-01

    This study contributes to the current debate on climate smart agriculture and development in Africa, specifically in relation to farm size, food security and intensification in rain fed farming areas. Although the different analyses are rough, because of a combination of incomplete knowledge and lim

  2. Characterizing droughts under current and future climates in the Jordan River region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Törnros

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI was applied in order to address the characteristics of current and future agricultural droughts in the Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the first step, the SPI was applied on spatially interpolated monthly precipitation data at multiple timescales, i.e. accumulated precipitation was considered over a number of timescales, for example: 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI obtained from remote sensing. The results show that the 6 month SPI best explains the inter-annual variation of the NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when addressing agricultural drought in the semi-arid region. In the second step, the 6 month SPI was applied to three climate projections based on the IPCC emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031–2060 with 1961–1990, it is shown that the mean drought duration is projected to increase. Furthermore, the droughts are expected to become more severe because the frequency of severe and extreme droughts is projected to increase and the frequency of moderate drought is projected to decrease. To address the impact of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during drought was simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.

  3. Synchronicity of Kuroshio Current and climate system variability since the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xufeng; Li, Anchun; Kao, ShuhJi; Gong, Xun; Frank, Martin; Kuhn, Gerhard; Cai, Wenju; Yan, Hong; Wan, Shiming; Zhang, Honghai; Jiang, Fuqing; Hathorne, Edmund; Chen, Zhong; Hu, Bangqi

    2016-10-01

    The Kuroshio Current (KC) is the northward branch of the North Pacific subtropical gyre (NPG) and exerts influence on the exchange of physical, chemical, and biological properties of downstream regions in the Pacific Ocean. Resolving long-term changes in the flow of the KC water masses is, therefore, crucial for advancing our understanding of the Pacific's role in global ocean and climate variability. Here, we reconstruct changes in KC dynamics over the past 20 ka based on grain-size spectra, clay mineral, and Sr-Nd isotope constraints of sediments from the northern Okinawa Trough. Combined with published sediment records surrounding the NPG, we suggest that the KC remained in the Okinawa Trough throughout the Last Glacial Maximum. Together with Earth-System-Model simulations, our results additionally indicate that KC intensified considerably during the early Holocene (EH). The synchronous establishment of the KC "water barrier" and the modern circulation pattern during the EH highstand shaped the sediment transport patterns. This is ascribed to the precession-induced increase in the occurrence of La Niña-like state and the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon. The synchronicity of the shifts in the intensity of the KC, Kuroshio extension, and El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability may further indicate that the western branch of the NPG has been subject to basin-scale changes in wind stress curl over the North Pacific in response to low-latitude insolation. Superimposed on this long-term trend are high-amplitude, large century, and millennial-scale variations during last 5 ka, which are ascribed to the advent of modern ENSO when the equatorial oceans experienced stronger insolation during the boreal winter.

  4. Modeling the prospects for climatic change: current state-of-the-art and implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellogg, W. M.

    1980-04-04

    It has been increasingly suggested that the world's climate is going to change in the next several decades, primarily as a result of anthropogenic perturbations to the global carbon cycle brought about by fossil fuel burning and large-scale deforestation. In order to cope with these future climatic changes, it is necessary that tools be developed to predict how complex systems respond to a given change of conditions. This report summarizes the status of our ability to model the planetary system that determines the climate. (ACR)

  5. Comparing modeled and observed changes in mineral dust transport and deposition to Antarctica between the Last Glacial Maximum and current climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albani, Samuel [University of Siena, Graduate School in Polar Sciences, Siena (Italy); University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Environmental Sciences, Milano (Italy); Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Mahowald, Natalie M. [Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Delmonte, Barbara; Maggi, Valter [University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Environmental Sciences, Milano (Italy); Winckler, Gisela [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, NY (United States)

    2012-05-15

    Mineral dust aerosols represent an active component of the Earth's climate system, by interacting with radiation directly, and by modifying clouds and biogeochemistry. Mineral dust from polar ice cores over the last million years can be used as paleoclimate proxy, and provide unique information about climate variability, as changes in dust deposition at the core sites can be due to changes in sources, transport and/or deposition locally. Here we present results from a study based on climate model simulations using the Community Climate System Model. The focus of this work is to analyze simulated differences in the dust concentration, size distribution and sources in current climate conditions and during the Last Glacial Maximum at specific ice core locations in Antarctica, and compare with available paleodata. Model results suggest that South America is the most important source for dust deposited in Antarctica in current climate, but Australia is also a major contributor and there is spatial variability in the relative importance of the major dust sources. During the Last Glacial Maximum the dominant source in the model was South America, because of the increased activity of glaciogenic dust sources in Southern Patagonia-Tierra del Fuego and the Southernmost Pampas regions, as well as an increase in transport efficiency southward. Dust emitted from the Southern Hemisphere dust source areas usually follow zonal patterns, but southward flow towards Antarctica is located in specific areas characterized by southward displacement of air masses. Observations and model results consistently suggest a spatially variable shift in dust particle sizes. This is due to a combination of relatively reduced en route wet removal favouring a generalized shift towards smaller particles, and on the other hand to an enhanced relative contribution of dry coarse particle deposition in the Last Glacial Maximum. (orig.)

  6. Recent Advances in Studies of Current Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanter, Yaroslav M.

    This is a brief review of recent activities in the field of current noise intended for newcomers. We first briefly discuss main properties of shot noise in nanostructures, and then turn to recent developments, concentrating on issues related to experimental progress: non-symmetrized cumulants and quantum noise; counting statistics; super-Poissonian noise; current noise and interferometry

  7. The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, David H.; Lean, Judith L.; Jonas, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

  8. Functional and phylogenetic relatedness in temporary wetland invertebrates: current macroecological patterns and implications for future climatic change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruhí, Albert; Boix, Dani; Gascón, Stéphanie; Sala, Jordi; Batzer, Darold P

    2013-01-01

    In freshwater ecosystems, species compositions are known to be determined hierarchically by large to small‑scale environmental factors, based on the biological traits of the organisms. However, in ephemeral habitats this heuristic framework remains largely untested. Although temporary wetland faunas are constrained by a local filter (i.e., desiccation), we propose its magnitude may still depend on large-scale climate characteristics. If this is true, climate should be related to the degree of functional and taxonomic relatedness of invertebrate communities inhabiting seasonal wetlands. We tested this hypothesis in two ways. First, based on 52 biological traits for invertebrates, we conducted a case study to explore functional trends among temperate seasonal wetlands differing in the harshness (i.e., dryness) of their dry season. After finding evidence of trait filtering, we addressed whether it could be generalized across a broader climatic scale. To this end, a meta-analysis (225 seasonal wetlands spread across broad climatic categories: Arid, Temperate, and Cold) allowed us to identify whether an equivalent climate-dependent pattern of trait richness was consistent between the Nearctic and the Western Palearctic. Functional overlap of invertebrates increased from mild (i.e., Temperate) to harsher climates (i.e., Arid and Cold), and phylogenetic clustering (using taxonomy as a surrogate) was highest in Arid and lowest in Temperate wetlands. We show that, (i) as has been described in streams, higher relatedness than would be expected by chance is generally observed in seasonal wetland invertebrate communities; and (ii) this relatedness is not constant but climate-dependent, with the climate under which a given seasonal wetland is located determining the functional overlap and the phylogenetic clustering of the community. Finally, using a space-for-time substitution approach we suggest our results may anticipate how the invertebrate biodiversity embedded in these

  9. Functional and phylogenetic relatedness in temporary wetland invertebrates: current macroecological patterns and implications for future climatic change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert Ruhí

    Full Text Available In freshwater ecosystems, species compositions are known to be determined hierarchically by large to small‑scale environmental factors, based on the biological traits of the organisms. However, in ephemeral habitats this heuristic framework remains largely untested. Although temporary wetland faunas are constrained by a local filter (i.e., desiccation, we propose its magnitude may still depend on large-scale climate characteristics. If this is true, climate should be related to the degree of functional and taxonomic relatedness of invertebrate communities inhabiting seasonal wetlands. We tested this hypothesis in two ways. First, based on 52 biological traits for invertebrates, we conducted a case study to explore functional trends among temperate seasonal wetlands differing in the harshness (i.e., dryness of their dry season. After finding evidence of trait filtering, we addressed whether it could be generalized across a broader climatic scale. To this end, a meta-analysis (225 seasonal wetlands spread across broad climatic categories: Arid, Temperate, and Cold allowed us to identify whether an equivalent climate-dependent pattern of trait richness was consistent between the Nearctic and the Western Palearctic. Functional overlap of invertebrates increased from mild (i.e., Temperate to harsher climates (i.e., Arid and Cold, and phylogenetic clustering (using taxonomy as a surrogate was highest in Arid and lowest in Temperate wetlands. We show that, (i as has been described in streams, higher relatedness than would be expected by chance is generally observed in seasonal wetland invertebrate communities; and (ii this relatedness is not constant but climate-dependent, with the climate under which a given seasonal wetland is located determining the functional overlap and the phylogenetic clustering of the community. Finally, using a space-for-time substitution approach we suggest our results may anticipate how the invertebrate biodiversity

  10. Climate change and climate variability impacts on rainfed agricultural activities and possible adaptation measures. A Mexican case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conde, C.; Ferrer, R. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico Circuito Exterior, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)]. E-mail: e-mail: conde@servidor.unam.mx; Orozco, S. [Escuela de Agrobiologia, Universidad Autonoma de Tlaxcala, Tlaxcala (Mexico)

    2006-07-15

    Climate extreme events (such as those associated to strong El Nino events) highly affect Mexican agriculture, since more than sixty percent of it is rainfed. The basic crop cultivated is maize, which is still the main source of nutrients for a large portion of the rural population in the country. Within the project Capacity Building for Stage II Adaptation to Climate Change in Central America, Mexico and Cuba, we analyze the strategies developed by maize producers in the central region of the country to cope with climatic adverse events. Impact on rainfed maize due to climate variability and climate change conditions are studied using a crop simulation model. Several adaptation measures can be evaluated using that model. However, the effect of other stressors must be considered in an assessment of the adaptive capacity of small farmers to climate variability and change. Key stakeholders' involvement in the region helped us to decide which of the adaptive measures could be viable under the current conditions and under future climatic conditions. The construction of greenhouses, the use of compost, and dripping irrigation, were some of the techniques selected with the participation of the stakeholders. The enthusiastic responses to these measures allow us to consider that they can prevail in the future, under climate change conditions. However, the adaptation to climate change includes -besides the stated techniques- the generation of the capacities to cope with climatic adverse events, that is, to enhance the adaptive capacities to climate change among the key stakeholders. [Spanish] Los eventos climaticos extremos (como los asociados con eventos fuertes de El Nino) afectan de manera importante a la agricultura mexicana, ya que mas del sesenta por ciento de ella es de temporal, esto es, depende fundamentalmente de una buena temporada de lluvias para producir. El cultivo que se siembra es basicamente maiz, que todavia es la principal fuente de nutrientes para

  11. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathewson, Paul D; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A; Briscoe, Natalie J; Kearney, Michael; Yahn, Jeremiah M; Porter, Warren P

    2017-03-01

    How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

  12. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.

    2017-01-01

    How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

  13. Applicability of the Organisational Climate Description Questionnaire - Rutgers Elementary: a South African case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D Vos

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Organisational Climate Description Questionnaire - Rutgers Elementary (OCDQ - RE was used to determine the current organizational climate of primary schools in North-West Province, South Africa. This questionnaire evaluates the actions of principals and educators; the current organizational climate in primary schools can be determined from the results. A quantitative research approach, with 904 teachers from 68 schools, was used to determine the applicability of the measuring instrument. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses revealed that certain items measuring directive behaviour in the OCDQ-RE grouped with supportive behaviour of the principal. Hence, in this study, these items were regarded as supportive towards the educators and their work by the respondents. According to Cronbach's alpha coefficient the questionnaire can be regarded as reliable. Recommendations are made to render the questionnaire even more applicable for the South African context.

  14. Consistent role of Quaternary climate change in shaping current plant functional diversity patterns across European plant orders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordonez, Alejandro; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2017-02-01

    Current and historical environmental conditions are known to determine jointly contemporary species distributions and richness patterns. However, whether historical dynamics in species distributions and richness translate to functional diversity patterns remains, for the most part, unknown. The geographic patterns of plant functional space size (richness) and packing (dispersion) for six widely distributed orders of European angiosperms were estimated using atlas distribution data and trait information. Then the relative importance of late-Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change and contemporary environmental factors (climate, productivity, and topography) as determinants of functional diversity of evaluated orders was assesed. Functional diversity patterns of all evaluated orders exhibited prominent glacial-interglacial climate change imprints, complementing the influence of contemporary environmental conditions. The importance of Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change factors was comparable to that of contemporary environmental factors across evaluated orders. Therefore, high long-term paleoclimate variability has imposed consistent supplementary constraints on functional diversity of multiple plant groups, a legacy that may permeate to ecosystem functioning and resilience. These findings suggest that strong near-future anthropogenic climate change may elicit long-term functional disequilibria in plant functional diversity.

  15. Consistent role of Quaternary climate change in shaping current plant functional diversity patterns across European plant orders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordonez, Alejandro; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2017-02-23

    Current and historical environmental conditions are known to determine jointly contemporary species distributions and richness patterns. However, whether historical dynamics in species distributions and richness translate to functional diversity patterns remains, for the most part, unknown. The geographic patterns of plant functional space size (richness) and packing (dispersion) for six widely distributed orders of European angiosperms were estimated using atlas distribution data and trait information. Then the relative importance of late-Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change and contemporary environmental factors (climate, productivity, and topography) as determinants of functional diversity of evaluated orders was assesed. Functional diversity patterns of all evaluated orders exhibited prominent glacial-interglacial climate change imprints, complementing the influence of contemporary environmental conditions. The importance of Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change factors was comparable to that of contemporary environmental factors across evaluated orders. Therefore, high long-term paleoclimate variability has imposed consistent supplementary constraints on functional diversity of multiple plant groups, a legacy that may permeate to ecosystem functioning and resilience. These findings suggest that strong near-future anthropogenic climate change may elicit long-term functional disequilibria in plant functional diversity.

  16. Consistent role of Quaternary climate change in shaping current plant functional diversity patterns across European plant orders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordonez, Alejandro; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2017-01-01

    Current and historical environmental conditions are known to determine jointly contemporary species distributions and richness patterns. However, whether historical dynamics in species distributions and richness translate to functional diversity patterns remains, for the most part, unknown. The geographic patterns of plant functional space size (richness) and packing (dispersion) for six widely distributed orders of European angiosperms were estimated using atlas distribution data and trait information. Then the relative importance of late-Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change and contemporary environmental factors (climate, productivity, and topography) as determinants of functional diversity of evaluated orders was assesed. Functional diversity patterns of all evaluated orders exhibited prominent glacial-interglacial climate change imprints, complementing the influence of contemporary environmental conditions. The importance of Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change factors was comparable to that of contemporary environmental factors across evaluated orders. Therefore, high long-term paleoclimate variability has imposed consistent supplementary constraints on functional diversity of multiple plant groups, a legacy that may permeate to ecosystem functioning and resilience. These findings suggest that strong near-future anthropogenic climate change may elicit long-term functional disequilibria in plant functional diversity. PMID:28230069

  17. An assessment of the solar irradiance record for climate studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kopp Greg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Total solar irradiance, the spatially and spectrally integrated radiant output from the Sun at a mean Sun-Earth distance of 1 astronomical unit, provides nearly all the energy driving the Earth’s climate system. Variations in this energy, particularly over long time scales, contribute to changes in Earth’s climate and have been linked to historical glaciation and inter-glacial periods as well as having a small effect on more recent global warming. Accurate measurements of solar irradiances require measurements above the Earth’s atmosphere. The total solar irradiance spaceborne record began in 1978 and has been uninterrupted since, with over a dozen instruments contributing to the present solar climate data record. I assess the required and achieved accuracies of this record with a focus on its value for climate studies.

  18. Linking Indigenous Knowledge and Observed Climate Change Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Chief Clarence; Bynum, Nora; Johnson, Liz; King, Ursula; Mustonen, Tero; Neofotis, Peter; Oettle, Noel; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Sakakibara, Chie; Shadrin, Chief Vyacheslav; Vicarelli, Marta; Waterhouse, Jon; Weeks, Brian

    2010-01-01

    We present indigenous knowledge narratives and explore their connections to documented temperature and other climate changes and observed climate change impact studies. We then propose a framework for enhancing integration of these indigenous narratives of observed climate change with global assessments. Our aim is to contribute to the thoughtful and respectful integration of indigenous knowledge with scientific data and analysis, so that this rich body of knowledge can inform science, and so that indigenous and traditional peoples can use the tools and methods of science for the benefit of their communities if they choose to do so. Enhancing ways of understanding such connections are critical as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment process gets underway.

  19. Applicability of the Organisational Climate Description Questionnaire--Rutgers Elementary: A South African Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos, D.; Ellis, S. M.; van der Westhuizen, Philip C.; Mentz, P. J.

    2013-01-01

    The Organisational Climate Description Questionnaire--Rutgers Elementary (OCDQ--RE) was used to determine the current organizational climate of primary schools in North-West Province, South Africa. This questionnaire evaluates the actions of principals and educators; the current organizational climate in primary schools can be determined from the…

  20. Evaluation of climate change impact on Blue Nile Basin Cascade Reservoir operation – case study of proposed reservoirs in the Main Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    This study mainly deals with evaluation of climate change impact on operation of the Blue Nile Basin Cascade Reservoir. To evaluate the impact of climate change, climate change scenarios of evapotranspiration and precipitation were developed for three periods. Output of ECHAM5 with RCM for the A1B emissions scenario were used to develop the future climate change scenarios. A hydrological model, HEC-HMS, was used to simulate current and future inflow volume to the reservoirs. The projected fut...

  1. Assessing the metrics of climate change. Current methods and future possibilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuglestveit, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Godal, Odd; Sausen, Robert; Shine, Keith P.; Skodvin, Tora

    2001-07-01

    With the principle of comprehensiveness embedded in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Art. 3), a multi-gas abatement strategy with emphasis also on non-CO2 greenhouse gases as targets for reduction and control measures has been adopted in the international climate regime. In the Kyoto Protocol, the comprehensive approach is made operative as the aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of six specified greenhouse gases or groups of gases (Art. 3). With this operationalisation, the emissions of a set of greenhouse gases with very different atmospheric lifetimes and radiative properties are transformed into one common unit - CO2 equivalents. This transformation is based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP) index, which in turn is based on the concept of radiative forcing. The GWP metric and its application in policy making has been debated, and several other alternative concepts have been suggested. In this paper, we review existing and alternative metrics of climate change, with particular emphasis on radiative forcing and GWPs, in terms of their scientific performance. This assessment focuses on questions such as the climate impact (end point) against which gases are weighted; the extent to which and how temporality is included, both with regard to emission control and with regard to climate impact; how cost issues are dealt with; and the sensitivity of the metrics to various assumptions. It is concluded that the radiative forcing concept is a robust and useful metric of the potential climatic impact of various agents and that there are prospects for improvement by weighing different forcings according to their effectiveness. We also find that although the GWP concept is associated with serious shortcomings, it retains advantages over any of the proposed alternatives in terms of political feasibility. Alternative metrics, however, make a significant contribution to addressing important issues, and this contribution should be taken

  2. The regional species richness and genetic diversity of Arctic vegetation reflect both past glaciations and current climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stewart, L.; Alsos, Inger G.; Bay, Christian

    2016-01-01

    species richness of the vascular plant flora of 21 floristic provinces and examined local species richness in 6215 vegetation plots distributed across the Arctic. We assessed levels of genetic diversity inferred from amplified fragment length polymorphism variation across populations of 23 common Arctic......, it will most probably also exhibit lags in response to current and future climate change. Our results also suggest that local species richness at the plot scale is more determined by local habitat factors...

  3. Regional climate modeling of heat stress, frost, and water stress events in the agricultural region of Southwest Western Australia under the current climate and future climate scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kala, Jatin; Lyons, Tom J.; Abbs, Deborah J.; Foster, Ian J.

    2010-05-01

    Heat stress, frost, and water stress events have significant impacts on grain quality and production within the agricultural region (wheat-belt) of Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) (Cramb, 2000) and understanding how the frequency and intensity of these events will change in the future is crucial for management purposes. Hence, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (Pielke et al, 1992) (RAMS Version 6.0) is used to simulate the past 10 years of the climate of SWWA at a 20 km grid resolution by down-scaling the 6-hourly 1.0 by 1.0 degree National Center for Environmental Prediction Final Analyses from December 1999 to Present. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as daily rainfall are validated against observations. Simulations of future climate are carried out by down-scaling the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Mark 3.5 General Circulation Model (Gordon et al, 2002) for 10 years (2046-2055) under the SRES A2 scenario using the Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM) (McGregor and Dix, 2008). The 6-hourly CCAM output is then downscaled to a 20 km resolution using RAMS. Changes in extreme events are discussed within the context of the continued viability of agriculture in SWWA. Cramb, J. (2000) Climate in relation to agriculture in south-western Australia. In: The Wheat Book (Eds W. K. Anderson and J. R. Garlinge). Bulletin 4443. Department of Agriculture, Western Australia. Gordon, H. B., Rotstayn, L. D., McGregor, J. L., Dix, M. R., Kowalczyk, E. A., O'Farrell, S. P., Waterman, L. J., Hirst, A. C., Wilson, S. G., Collier, M. A., Watterson, I. G., and Elliott, T. I. (2002). The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model [Electronic publication]. Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research. (CSIRO Atmospheric Research technical paper; no. 60). 130 p McGregor, J. L., and Dix, M. R., (2008) An updated description of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model. High Resolution Simulation of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Hamilton, K. and Ohfuchi

  4. The Current Canon in British Romantics Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkin, Harriet Kramer

    1991-01-01

    Describes and reports on a survey of 164 U.S. universities to ascertain what is taught as the current canon of British Romantic literature. Asserts that the canon may now include Mary Shelley with the former standard six major male Romantic poets, indicating a significant emergence of a feminist perspective on British Romanticism in the classroom.…

  5. A study on relationship between organizational climate and creativity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Akbar Ahmadi

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the relationship between organizational climate and women employees' creativity of Tabriz Red Crescent Organization. The research method is descriptive correlation performed among 120 women employed at the Red Crescent and 100 cases were selected for the proposed study. For data collection, Hoy and Miskel (2005's organizational climate and Randsyp creativity questionnaires with 0.78 and 0.82 Cronbach's alpha coefficients were used. Pearson correlation and multiple regressions were used to analyze research hypotheses. Results showed that there was a significant relationship between two indices of manager and subordinate behaviors and creativity. In addition, in investigating the relationship between climate and creativity components, findings showed that there was a significant relationship only between cooperation and pretending to job dimensions and creativity. This study also has shown that managers' behavior is closed and employees' behavior is more open than managers are.

  6. Elements of change 1994. Climate-radiation feedbacks: The current state of the science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-09-01

    This report presents the details of the Climate-Radiation Feedback summer seminar. Topics include: radiative transfer; radiative properties of clouds; absorption of radiation in the atmosphere due to clouds; global cloud climatology; aerosols; general circulation models; and convection. Individual papers have been indexed separately for the database.

  7. Current developments in climatology and climate policy; Aktuelle Entwicklungen in Klimawissenschaft und -politik

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, G.R. [Gesamtverband des Deutschen Steinkohlenbergbaus, Essen (Germany)

    2006-10-23

    Hardly a day passes without new horror stories concerning the climatic disaster. Reports by Greenpeace such as 'The five hottest years since the beginning of climatic records have occurred in the recent past: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005' could equally well have originated from 'Spiegel', 'Zeit', 'Welt' or the Federal Ministry for the Environment. The highest average temperature for over a century was recorded in 2005. The extremes of weather are accumulating, hurricanes are increasing in intensity, glaciers are melting. In Europe alone there were 35,000 deaths from the consequences of the heat wave in 2003. Public opinion is clearly aware that the climate change is real and the effects can only be disastrous. Immediate measures in the form of drastic reductions of emissions are required. The opinions of the climatologists on this question differ. A survey of the scientific findings and classification of the weather and climatic events appears appropriate against this background. (orig.)

  8. Spatial forecasting of switchgrass productivity under current and future climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evaluating the potential of alternative energy crops across large geographic regions and over time is necessary to determine if feedstock production is feasible and sustainable in the face of growing production demands and climatic change. Panicum virgatum L., a perennial herbaceous grass, is a prom...

  9. Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tao; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Adam, Myriam; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fumoto, Tamon; Gaydon, Donald; Marcaida, Manuel, III; Nakagawa, Hiroshi; Oriol, Philippe; Ruane, Alex C.; Ruget, Francoise; Singh, Balwinder; Singh, Upendra; Tang, Liang; Tao, Fulu; Wilkens, Paul; Yoshida, Hiroe; Zhang, Zhao; Bouman, Bas

    2014-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

  10. The climate of Kazakhstan: an examination of current conditions and future needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Andrew; Ali, Maged; Althonayan, Abraham; Akhmetov, Kanat; Gazdiyeva, Bella; Ghalaieny, Mohamed; Kurmanbayeva, Aygul; McCann, Meg; Mukanov, Yelzhas; Tucker, Allan; Zhumabayeva, Sara

    2017-04-01

    Environmental Health is an essential aspect of any successful society; indeed, it was recognised as a cornerstone of the UN's Agenda 21 action plan for sustainable development. Clean air and water, safe food, minimal exposure to toxic materials, disaster preparedness, planning for climate change and effective waste management are all fundamental to a healthy population and socio-economic progress. In recent years, particularly since 2000, Kazakhstan's economic development has been exceptional. However, health indicators such as life expectancy are lagging behind nations with similar economies. It is likely that this "health lag" is, to a large extent, caused or aggravated by the poor state of Kazakhstan's natural environment. In this paper, we focus on the role of recent and future climate change in Kazakhstan. We examine ECMWF re-analysis data, data derived directly from observations and CMIP5 climate projections for the region to understand how climate may impact environmental health in the country. This analysis is part of a larger project that aims to take a more holistic approach to the analysis of environmental health in a developing nation.

  11. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF Instrumentation Status: New, Current, and Future)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    JW Voyles

    2008-01-30

    The purpose of this report is to provide a concise but comprehensive overview of Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility instrumentation status. The report is divided into the following four sections: (1) new instrumentation in the process of being acquired and deployed, (2) existing instrumentation and progress on improvements or upgrades, (3) proposed future instrumentation, and (4) Small Business Innovation Research instrument development.

  12. A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric; Auer, Ingeborg; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Brandsma, Theo; Brunetti, Michele; Dienst, Manuel; Domonkos, Peter; Gilabert, Alba; Lindén, Jenny; Milewska, Ewa; Nordli, Øyvind; Prohom, Marc; Rennie, Jared; Stepanek, Petr; Trewin, Blair; Vincent, Lucie; Willett, Kate; Wolff, Mareile

    2016-04-01

    In this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, in the framework of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long-term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., (i) station relocations, (ii) instrument height changes, (iii) instrumentation changes, (iv) observing environment changes, (v) different sampling intervals or data collection procedures, among others. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of long-term trends and variability of climate. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location, different radiation shields, etc.). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of air temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important

  13. Improving NASA's Multiscale Modeling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Climate Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Nelson, Bron; Cheung, Samson; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2013-01-01

    One of the current challenges in tropical cyclone (TC) research is how to improve our understanding of TC interannual variability and the impact of climate change on TCs. Recent advances in global modeling, visualization, and supercomputing technologies at NASA show potential for such studies. In this article, the authors discuss recent scalability improvement to the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) that makes it feasible to perform long-term TC-resolving simulations. The MMF consists of the finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM), supplemented by a copy of the Goddard cumulus ensemble model (GCE) at each of the fvGCM grid points, giving 13,104 GCE copies. The original fvGCM implementation has a 1D data decomposition; the revised MMF implementation retains the 1D decomposition for most of the code, but uses a 2D decomposition for the massive copies of GCEs. Because the vast majority of computation time in the MMF is spent computing the GCEs, this approach can achieve excellent speedup without incurring the cost of modifying the entire code. Intelligent process mapping allows differing numbers of processes to be assigned to each domain for load balancing. The revised parallel implementation shows highly promising scalability, obtaining a nearly 80-fold speedup by increasing the number of cores from 30 to 3,335.

  14. AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF CURRENT RATIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atanas Delev

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to address problems of liquidity and in particular the values and factors that influenced the values of the coefficient of total liquidity sixty Bulgarian public companies for the period 2013 - 2007 year. In the analysis it was found that some businesses fail to achieve favorable values of the ratio between current assets and current liabilities. It was found that plants have a low level of total liquidity, which can create problems in repayment of short-term liabilities. It can be seen that there are companies with very high liquidity, which is not so good phenomenon, ie the retention of a high level of resources required. Businesses should conduct a thorough analysis and implement appropriate measures to correct adverse changes. The financial management of the companies surveyed had worked towards improving the state of the enterprise, thereby seeking to reduce liquidity risk.

  15. Active Amplification of the Terrestrial Albedo to Mitigate Climate Change: An Exploratory Study

    CERN Document Server

    Hamwey, R M

    2005-01-01

    This study explores the potential to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface as a climate change mitigation measure. Preliminary estimates derived using a static radiative transfer model indicate that such efforts could amplify the planetary albedo enough to offset the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases by as much as 30 percent or 0.76 W/m2. Terrestrial albedo amplification may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development and use of low-emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain essential to mitigate long-term climate change. However, additional study is needed to confirm the estimates reported here and to assess the economic and environmental impacts of active land-surface albedo amplification as a climate change mitigation measure.

  16. Methodological Issues on Climate Change Mitigation Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lene; Borges, Pedro Castro; Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses national greenhouse gas emission abatement costing studies as a case to discuss influential factors that determine their outcome and achievement. Costing studies are seen as part of an interconnected whole social process where actors (decision makers, clients, facilitators, expert...... such methodologies to case studies is seen as one way of improving the chances of understanding and handling environmental problems...

  17. Potential and limitations of multidecadal satellite soil moisture observations for selected climate model evaluation studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Loew

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil moisture is an essential climate variable (ECV of major importance for land–atmosphere interactions and global hydrology. An appropriate representation of soil moisture dynamics in global climate models is therefore important. Recently, a first multidecadal, observation-based soil moisture dataset has become available that provides information on soil moisture dynamics from satellite observations (ECVSM, essential climate variable soil moisture. The present study investigates the potential and limitations of this new dataset for several applications in climate model evaluation. We compare soil moisture data from satellite observations, reanalysis and simulations from a state-of-the-art land surface model and analyze relationships between soil moisture and precipitation anomalies in the different dataset. Other potential applications like model parameter optimization or model initialization are not investigated in the present study. In a detailed regional study, we show that ECVSM is capable to capture well the interannual and intraannual soil moisture and precipitation dynamics in the Sahelian region. Current deficits of the new dataset are critically discussed and summarized at the end of the paper to provide guidance for an appropriate usage of the ECVSM dataset for climate studies.

  18. Nurses' perceptions of climate and environmental issues: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anåker, Anna; Nilsson, Maria; Holmner, Åsa; Elf, Marie

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this study was to explore nurses' perceptions of climate and environmental issues and examine how nurses perceive their role in contributing to the process of sustainable development. Climate change and its implications for human health represent an increasingly important issue for the healthcare sector. According to the International Council of Nurses Code of Ethics, nurses have a responsibility to be involved and support climate change mitigation and adaptation to protect human health. This is a descriptive, explorative qualitative study. Nurses (n = 18) were recruited from hospitals, primary care and emergency medical services; eight participated in semi-structured, in-depth individual interviews and 10 participated in two focus groups. Data were collected from April-October 2013 in Sweden; interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using content analysis. Two main themes were identified from the interviews: (i) an incongruence between climate and environmental issues and nurses' daily work; and (ii) public health work is regarded as a health co-benefit of climate change mitigation. While being green is not the primary task in a lifesaving, hectic and economically challenging context, nurses' perceived their profession as entailing responsibility, opportunities and a sense of individual commitment to influence the environment in a positive direction. This study argues there is a need for increased awareness of issues and methods that are crucial for the healthcare sector to respond to climate change. Efforts to develop interventions should explore how nurses should be able to contribute to the healthcare sector's preparedness for and contributions to sustainable development. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Genetic and physiological bases for phenological responses to current and predicted climates

    OpenAIRE

    Wilczek, A. M.; Burghardt, L. T.; Cobb, A. R.; Cooper, M D; Welch, S. M.; Schmitt, J

    2010-01-01

    We are now reaching the stage at which specific genetic factors with known physiological effects can be tied directly and quantitatively to variation in phenology. With such a mechanistic understanding, scientists can better predict phenological responses to novel seasonal climates. Using the widespread model species Arabidopsis thaliana, we explore how variation in different genetic pathways can be linked to phenology and life-history variation across geographical regions and seasons. We sho...

  20. Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

  1. A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric

    2015-04-01

    n this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, under the umbrella of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., relocations and changes in instrumentation, instrument height or data collection and manipulation procedures. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of trends and variability. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. .The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important potentially biasing transitions are the adoption of Stevenson screens, efforts to reduce undercatchment of precipitation or the move to automatic weather

  2. The new climate data record of total and spectral solar irradiance: Current progress and future steps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coddington, Odele; Lean, Judith; Rottman, Gary; Pilewskie, Peter; Snow, Martin; Lindholm, Doug

    2016-04-01

    We present a climate data record of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI), with associated time and wavelength dependent uncertainties, from 1610 to the present. The data record was developed jointly by the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) at the University of Colorado Boulder and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) as part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Climate Data Record (CDR) Program, where the data record, source code, and supporting documentation are archived. TSI and SSI are constructed from models that determine the changes from quiet Sun conditions arising from bright faculae and dark sunspots on the solar disk using linear regression of proxies of solar magnetic activity with observations from the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM), Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM), and SOlar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE). We show that TSI can be separately modeled to within TIM's measurement accuracy from solar rotational to solar cycle time scales and we assume that SSI measurements are reliable on solar rotational time scales. We discuss the model formulation, uncertainty estimates, and operational implementation and present comparisons of the modeled TSI and SSI with the measurement record and with other solar irradiance models. We also discuss ongoing work to assess the sensitivity of the modeled irradiances to model assumptions, namely, the scaling of solar variability from rotational-to-cycle time scales and the representation of the sunspot darkening index.

  3. Methodological Issues on Climate Change Mitigation Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lene; Borges, Pedro Castro; Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses national greenhouse gas emission abatement costing studies as a case to discuss influential factors that determine their outcome and achievement. Costing studies are seen as part of an interconnected whole social process where actors (decision makers, clients, facilitators, experts....... Some methodological principles are suggested to address such contradictions, structure, and change th einteractions between the different dimensions of hte social process framework. Two studies are mentioned in which ideas are presented on how to deal with the central contradictions. Applying......, etc.) interact to analyse and solve important decision problems by applying methodologies. A simple framework is used to identify several sources of contradictions that may have a significant impact on studies carried out in the single countries as well on the implementation of abatement measures...

  4. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fatichi, S., E-mail: simone.fatichi@ifu.baug.ethz.ch; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  5. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    , affect damage estimates and thereby the economic recommendations for climate change adaptation decision making. The conclusion is that taken vulnerabilities and equity concerns into consideration in adaptation planning for Least Developed Countries really makes a strong case for allocating economic......Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...

  6. Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tucker James R

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948 and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources

  7. Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Ashley C; Salkeld, Daniel J; Fritz, Curtis L; Tucker, James R; Gong, Peng

    2009-06-28

    Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent model results were significantly

  8. 'Initial' Soil Moisture Effects on the Climate in China——A Regional Climate Model Study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Xueli

    2009-01-01

    In this study, the effects of 'initial' soil moisture (SM) in arid and semi-arid Northwestern China on subsequent climate were investigated with a regional climate model. Besides the control simulations (denoted as CTL), a series of sensitivity experi-ments were conducted, including the DRY and WET experiments, in which the simulated 'initial' SM over the region 30-50°N, 75 -105°E was only 5% and 50%, and up to 150% and 200% of the simulated value in the CTL, respectively. The results show that SM change can modify the subsequent climate in not only the SM-change region proper but also the far downstream regions in Eastern and even Northeastern China. The SM-change effects are generally more prominent in the WET than in the DRY experiments. After the SM is initially increased, the SM in the SM-change region is always higher than that in the CTL, the latent (sensible) heat flux there increases (decreases), and the surface air temperature decreases. Spatially, the most prominent changes in the WET experiments are surface air temperature decrease, geopotential height decrease and corresponding abnormal changes of cyclonic wind vectors at the mid-upper troposphere levels. Generally opposite effects exist in the DRY experiments but with much weaker intensity. In addi-tion, the differences between the results obtained from the two sets of sensitivity experiments and those of the CTL are not always consistent with the variation of the initial SM. Being different from the variation of temperature, the rainfall modifications caused by initial SM change are not so distinct and in fact they show some common features in the WET and DRY experiments. This might imply that SM is only one of the factors that impact the subsequent climate, and its effect is involved in complex processes within the atmosphere, which needs further investigation.

  9. Climate change, water, and agriculture: a study of two contrasting regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.; Zhang, X.

    2009-12-01

    We present a study of potential impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in two contrasting regions, the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia and the Northern Great Plains in the United States. The Aral Sea basin is one of the most anthropogenically modified areas of the world; it is also a zone of a water-related ecological crisis. We concentrate on studying water security of five countries in the region, which inherit their water regulation from the planned economy of USSR. Water management was targeted at maximizing agricultural output through diverting the river flow into an extensive and largely ineffective network of irrigation canals. The current water crisis is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and discuss the impact of climate change on future development of the region. In the same way as the Aral Sea basin, the Northern Great Plains is expected to be a region heavily impacted by climate change. We concentrate on

  10. Complementarity among climate related energy sources: Sensitivity study to climate characteristics across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Raynaud, Damien; Borga, Marco; Vautard, Robert

    2015-04-01

    Climate related energy sources like solar-power, wind-power and hydro-power are important contributors to the transitions to a low-carbon economy. Past studies, mainly based on solar and wind powers, showed that the power from such energy sources fluctuates in time and space following their driving climatic variables. However, when combining different energy sources together, their intermittent feature is smoothed, resulting to lower time variability of the produced power and to lower storage capacity required for balancing. In this study, we consider solar, wind and hydro energy sources in a 100% renewable Europe using a set of 12 regions following two climate transects, the first one going from the Northern regions (Norway, Finland) to the Southern ones (Greece, Andalucía, Tunisia) and the second one going from the oceanic climate (West of France, Galicia) to the continental one (Romania, Belorussia). For each of those regions, we combine wind and solar irradiance data from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Vautard et al., 2014), temperature data from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) and runoff from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC, 1999) for estimating solar-power, wind-power, run-of-the-river hydro-power and the electricity demand over a time period of 30 years. The use of this set of 12 regions across Europe allows integrating knowledge about time and space variability for each different energy sources. We then assess the optimal share of each energy sources, aiming to decrease the time variability of the regional energy balance at different time scales as well as the energy storage required for balancing within each region. We also evaluate how energy transport among regions contributes for smoothing out both the energy balance and the storage requirement. The strengths of this study are i) to handle with run-of-the-river hydro power in addition to wind and solar energy sources and ii) to carry out this analysis

  11. Occupational health impacts of climate change: current and future ISO standards for the assessment of heat stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Ken

    2013-01-01

    The current system of International Standards (ISO) is assessed to consider whether standards are fit for purpose for the future in the context of climate change. ISO 7243, ISO 7933 and ISO 9886 provide the current ISO system for the assessment of heat stress. These involve a simple monitoring index, an analytical approach and physiological monitoring, respectively. The system relies on accurate measurement of the thermal conditions experienced by the worker (ISO 7726); and estimations of metabolic heat production due to work (ISO 8996) and the thermal properties of clothing (ISO 9920). As well as standards for heat stress assessment, the full range of ISO standards and the physical environment is listed as well as current work and proposed standards. A particular 'gap' in anticipating requirements for ISO standards in the future is the link between meteorological data and ISO standards. This is important for predicting the global consequences of a changing climate and anticipating potential impacts on occupational health across countries and cultures.

  12. Current and projected water demand and water availability estimates under climate change scenarios in the Weyib River basin in Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

    2017-07-01

    This study intended to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of current and projected water demand and water availability under climate change scenarios in Weyib River basin, Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia. Future downscaled climate variables from three Earth System Models under the three RCP emission scenarios were inputted into ArcSWAT hydrological model to simulate different components of water resources of a basin whereas current and projected human and livestock population of the basin is considered to estimate the total annual water demand for various purposes. Results revealed that the current total annual water demand of the basin is found to be about 289 Mm3, and this has to increase by 83.47% after 15 years, 200.67% after 45 years, and 328.78% after 75 years by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period water demand mainly due to very rapid increasing population (40.81, 130.80, and 229.12% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively) and climatic variability. The future average annual total water availability in the basin is observed to be increased by ranging from 15.04 to 21.61, 20.08 to 23.34, and 16.21 to 39.53% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time slice, respectively, from base period available water resources (2333.39 Mm3). The current water availability per capita per year of the basin is about 3112.23 m3 and tends to decline ranging from 11.78 to 17.49, 46.02 to 47.45, and 57.18 to 64.34% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period per capita per year water availability. This indicated that there might be possibility to fall the basin under water stress condition in the long term.

  13. Current Research on Chinese Students Studying Abroad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henze, Jurgen; Zhu, Jiani

    2012-01-01

    As a result of China's growing participation and importance in the process of internationalization and globalization a continuously rising number of Chinese students has gone abroad for further study. By the end of the last decade the number of Chinese students abroad made up the largest group of international students in the USA (surpassing those…

  14. Current Research on Chinese Students Studying Abroad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henze, Jurgen; Zhu, Jiani

    2012-01-01

    As a result of China's growing participation and importance in the process of internationalization and globalization a continuously rising number of Chinese students has gone abroad for further study. By the end of the last decade the number of Chinese students abroad made up the largest group of international students in the USA (surpassing those…

  15. STUDYING OF SAFETY CLIMATE ASSESSMENT: A CASE STUDY AT STEEL INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan DARVISH

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Evolution of safety climate used as a practical means has determined and assessed potential problems relevant to safety issues in an organization and can be used in individuals’ performance and work efficiency and decreasing rate of incidents ;as well as; guidance to provide safety organization policy and comparison of safety performance in different organizations. The study wants to determine and prepare safety climate profile and application of its results in improving safety situation. In this study, applied tools presented by Loughborough University are used to evaluate safety climate in one of steel industries and data is collected through questionnaire, group discussions or purposeful interviews and observations, and safety climate score was obtained in 17 scopes. Calculating the score of each safety climate domain and preparing the profile indicated there is the average rate (4.89 2 in the safety climate of the industry.

  16. Current studies on myofascial pain syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuan, Ta-Shen

    2009-10-01

    Recent studies have clarified the nature of myofascial trigger points (MTrPs). In an MTrP region, multiple hyperirritable loci can be found. The sensory components of the MTrP locus are sensitized nociceptors that are responsible for pain, referred pain, and local twitch responses. The motor components are dysfunctional endplates that are responsible for taut band formation as a result of excessive acetylcholine (ACh) leakage. The concentrations of pain- and inflammation-related substances are increased in the MTrP region. It has been hypothesized that excessive ACh release, sarcomere shortening, and release of sensitizing substances are three essential features that relate to one another in a positive feedback cycle. This MTrP circuit is the connection among spinal sensory (dorsal horn) neurons responsible for the MTrP phenomena. Recent studies suggest that measurement of biochemicals associated with pain and inflammation in the MTrP region, the sonographic study of MTrPs, and the magnetic resonance elastography for taut band image are potential tools for the diagnosis of MTrPs. Many methods have been used to treat myofascial pain, including laser therapy, shockwave therapy, and botulinum toxin type A injection.

  17. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  18. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  19. ClimaDat: A long-term network to study at different scales climatic processes and interactions between climatic compartments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgui, Josep Anton; Agueda, Alba; Batet, Oscar; Curcoll, Roger; Ealo, Marina; Grossi, Claudia; Occhipinti, Paola; Sánchez-García, Laura; Arias, Rosa; Rodó, Xavi

    2013-04-01

    ClimaDat (www.climadat.es) is a pioneer project of the Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) in collaboration with and funded by "la Caixa" Foundation. This project aims at studying the interactions between climate and ecosystems at different spatial and temporal scales. The ClimaDat project consists of a network of eight long-term observatory stations distributed over Spain, installed at natural and remote areas, and covering different climatic domains (e.g. Mediterranean, Atlantic, subtropics) and natural systems (e.g. delta, karsts, high mountain areas). Data obtained in the ClimaDat network will help us to understand how ecosystems are influenced by and eventually might feedback different processes in the climate system. The point of focus of these studies will be taken into account regional-and-local conditions to understand climatic global scale eventsThe data gathered will be used to study the behavior of the global element cycles and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The network is expected to offer near real-time (NRT) data free for the scientific community. Instrumentation installed at these stations mainly consists of: CO2, CH4, H2O, CO, N2O, SF6 and 222Rn analyzers, isotopic CO2, CH4 and H2O analyzers, meteorological sensors, eddy covariance equipment, four-component radiometers, soil moisture and temperature sensors, and sap flow meters. Each station may have a more focused subset of all this equipment, depending on the specific characteristics of the site. Instrumentation selected for this network has been chosen to comply with standards established in international research infrastructure projects, such as ICOS (http://www.icos-infrastructure.eu/home) or InGOS (http://www.ingos-infrastructure.eu/). Preliminary data time-series of greenhouse gases concentrations and meteorological variables are presented in this study for three currently operational ClimaDat stations: the Natural Park of the Ebre Delta (lat 40.75° N - long 0.79° E), the

  20. Tobin Tax: Arguments and Current Derivative Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozekicioglu Seda

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Tobin Tax and its derivative applications have started to be discussed again in many platforms as the issue regarding taxation of short-term capital movements has become an agenda among international communities such as European Union (EU and G20 since the beginning of 2000s. In this study, Tobin Tax, which is the first significant step towards taxation of foreign currency transactions, has been discussed theoretically and considering its possible effects on application. Also, in this context, the initiatives of countries such as USA, Belgium, France and Austria regarding international implementation of Tobin Tax and its derivatives are being evaluated. The intended use of the taxes, determination of transactions exempt from tax and international cooperation in the implementation of taxation are possible problems that can be faced regarding Tobin Tax. In this study the conclusion, which the effects of Tobin Tax in developing and developed countries will be different but imposing such tax regarding cyclic balance of the world economy will be a positive improvement, has been reached.

  1. Ocular biomechanics study: current state and perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yu. Petrov

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Despite the fact that the eye represents a challenge for biomechanical research due to its size, over the last two decades, much data on ocular biomechanics were accumulated. Scleral and lamina cribrosa biomechanics contribute to our understanding of myopia and open-angle glaucoma; iris and trabecular meshwork biomechanics to that of angle-closure glaucoma; vitreous biomechanics to that of retinal detachment and ocular drug delivery; corneal biomechanics to that of keratoconus; and lens capsule biomechanics to that of cataract. This paper offers a general overview of recent advances in corneal, scleral, crystalline lens, and lamina cribrosa biomechanics and summarizes the results of experimental and clinical studies. Ocular biomechanics abnormalities affect etiology of many eye diseases. Ocular biomechanics plays an important role in the development of novel diagnostic methods, therapeutic and surgical procedures. Corneal biomechanics impacts etiology and pathogenesis of keratoconus as well as tonometry accuracy and explains corneal refractive surgery effect. Scleral biomechanics is associated with IOP and progressive myopia. Accommodative apparatus (ciliary body and crystalline lens is an important anatomic physiological structure. Recent studies uncovered the causes of agerelated loss of accommodation as a result of lens involution. Optic nerve head abnormalities due to IOP fluctuations are the key factor of glaucomatous neuropathy. They are directly associated with ocular biomechanics as well.

  2. Ocular biomechanics study: current state and perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yu. Petrov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the fact that the eye represents a challenge for biomechanical research due to its size, over the last two decades, much data on ocular biomechanics were accumulated. Scleral and lamina cribrosa biomechanics contribute to our understanding of myopia and open-angle glaucoma; iris and trabecular meshwork biomechanics to that of angle-closure glaucoma; vitreous biomechanics to that of retinal detachment and ocular drug delivery; corneal biomechanics to that of keratoconus; and lens capsule biomechanics to that of cataract. This paper offers a general overview of recent advances in corneal, scleral, crystalline lens, and lamina cribrosa biomechanics and summarizes the results of experimental and clinical studies. Ocular biomechanics abnormalities affect etiology of many eye diseases. Ocular biomechanics plays an important role in the development of novel diagnostic methods, therapeutic and surgical procedures. Corneal biomechanics impacts etiology and pathogenesis of keratoconus as well as tonometry accuracy and explains corneal refractive surgery effect. Scleral biomechanics is associated with IOP and progressive myopia. Accommodative apparatus (ciliary body and crystalline lens is an important anatomic physiological structure. Recent studies uncovered the causes of agerelated loss of accommodation as a result of lens involution. Optic nerve head abnormalities due to IOP fluctuations are the key factor of glaucomatous neuropathy. They are directly associated with ocular biomechanics as well.

  3. Norwegian Hydrological Reference Dataset for Climate Change Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magnussen, Inger Helene; Killingland, Magnus; Spilde, Dag

    2012-07-01

    Based on the Norwegian hydrological measurement network, NVE has selected a Hydrological Reference Dataset for studies of hydrological change. The dataset meets international standards with high data quality. It is suitable for monitoring and studying the effects of climate change on the hydrosphere and cryosphere in Norway. The dataset includes streamflow, groundwater, snow, glacier mass balance and length change, lake ice and water temperature in rivers and lakes.(Author)

  4. Study of high current commutation by explosive switch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usuba, S.; Kakudate, Y.; Yoshida, M.; Fujiwara, S.; Miyamoto, M.; Morita, T.; Kubota, A.; den, M.

    1993-01-01

    The study presents the basic experimental data obtained with a large current opening switch for current commutation using explosives. It is shown that currents up to a maximum of 40 kA can be completely interrupted within 30 microsec. The mechanism of current interruption using a thin conductor plate and methods of measuring interrupting current with a pickup coil and taking photographs with a high-speed camera (one frame per microsec) are discussed.

  5. The exotic invasive plant Vincetoxicum rossicum is a strong competitor even outside its current realized climatic temperature range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurа Sanderson

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Dog-strangling vine (Vincetoxicum rossicum is an exotic plant originating from Central and Eastern Europe that is becoming increasingly invasive in southern Ontario, Canada. Once established, it successfully displaces local native plant species but mechanisms behind this plant’s high competitive ability are not fully understood. It is unknown whether cooler temperatures will limit the range expansion of V. rossicum, which has demonstrated high tolerance for other environmental variables such as light and soil moisture. Furthermore, if V. rossicum can establish outside its current climatic limit it is unknown whether competition with native species can significantly contribute to reduce fitness and slow down invasion. We conducted an experiment to test the potential of V. rossicum to spread into northern areas of Ontario using a set of growth chambers to simulate southern and northern Ontario climatic temperature regimes. We also tested plant-plant competition by growing V. rossicum in pots with a highly abundant native species, Solidago canadensis, and comparing growth responses to plants grown alone. We found that the fitness of V. rossicum was not affected by the cooler climate despite a delay in reproductive phenology. Growing V. rossicum with S. canadensis caused a significant reduction in seedpod biomass of V. rossicum. However, we did not detect a temperature x competition interaction in spite of evidence for adaptation of S. canadensis to cooler temperature conditions. We conclude that the spread of V. rossicum north within the tested range is unlikely to be limited by climatic temperature but competition with an abundant native species may contribute to slow it down.

  6. The impact of iceberg calving on climate: a model study with a fully coupled ice-sheet - climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugelmayer, Marianne; Roche, Didier; Renssen, Hans

    2013-04-01

    In the current period of climate change the understanding of the interactions between different parts of the climate system gets more and more important. The ice-sheets and ice-shelves, an important part of this system, experienced strong changes in the geological past, ranging from fully ice free to ice covered - thereby altering the whole climate. In the present climate, thousands of icebergs are released every year from Greenland and Antarctica, acting as a moving source of freshwater and a sink of latent heat. As a consequence, these icebergs alter the oceans' stratification and facilitate the formation of sea ice, thus influencing the state of the ocean and of the atmosphere. Up to now, the impact of icebergs on climate has been addressed in different studies which utilize climate models using freshwater and latent heat fluxes to parameterize icebergs. Mostly these fluxes were equally distributed around the coast. However, more recently iceberg modules were integrated into climate models to take into account the temporal and spatial distribution of the iceberg melting. In the presented study, an earth system model of intermediate complexity - iLOVECLIM - that includes a 3D dynamic - thermodynamic iceberg module (Jongma et al., 2008) is coupled to the Grenoble ice shelves and land ice model - GRISLI (Ritz et al., 1997, 2001). In GRISLI, ice sheets evolve according to the precipitation and temperature received from iLOVECLIM. In turn, GRISLI provides its topography and the ice mask to the atmospheric component of iLOVECLIM and all freshwater fluxes (ablation and calving) to its oceanic component. The ablation is directly put into the uppermost layer of the ocean, whereas the calving is used to generate icebergs at the calving sites following the size distribution of Bigg et al. (1997). Using this model set-up we analyse the evolution and the equilibrium state of the Greenland ice-sheet under pre-industrial conditions within three different coupling methods. All

  7. Vulnerability of the Barents Sea environment to climate changes: a review of the current assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gelfan, A.; Danilov-Danilyan, V.

    2009-07-15

    Authors' conclusion: Climate change is not considered to be just 'one more stress' on the ecosystem, but rather it will create complex and dynamic changes in the environment that may alter the level of its vulnerability. Cumulative effects can be defined as changes to the environment that are caused by an action in combination with other past, present and future human actions (Environment Canada 2003). The magnitude and effects of multiple stresses can be equal to the sum of the individual effects (additive effects) or they may strengthen or weaken each other (positive or negative feedbacks). To understand complex interactions within the system atmosphere-land surface-ocean at regional scales and to assess influence of the environmental changes on the ecological conditions, sophisticated models should be developed allowing to account for regional peculiarities of these systems. Development of such models is considered as one of the main challenge of the Earth system science. (author)

  8. Interannual Variability of Tropical Precipitation: How Well Do Climate Models Agree With Current Satellite Estimates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Marshall, Susan; Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert J.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over die tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-H effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but with no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects of inter-annual variability. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean beat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability in precipitation than do the satellite observations.

  9. 城市环境气候图的发展及其应用现状%The Development of Urban Climatic Map and Its Current Application Situation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    任超; 吴恩融; Katzschner Lutz; 冯志雄

    2012-01-01

    procedures of developing UCMap. The current application situation in Germany, Japan and Hong Kong of China are selected to conduct case studies for exploring their advantages and existing problems. The key lessons of each case study are also provided. Furthermore, according the current situation of China, the urgent need to carry out such study is also pointed out to deal with the environmental problems caused by the recent fast urbanization and solve the conflict among social need, economic benefits, landscape and ecological environment. Due to the poor quality of meteorological data and the urgency of application, a simplified method is expected to apply for development of middle-mage cities and new rural construction of China. Also, the future trend of UCMap study is discussed, which should develop a quantitive method of defining and validating climatope, make the feasibility of application into urban planning, and adopt the climate change into consideration.%城市环境气候图最初于20世纪70年代由德国气候研究者开发制作,通过近40年的发展,目前在世界范围内已有20个国家开展了相关研究与应用项目,从而为改善城市气候环境与提高人居生活条件提供决策依据.该文首先对城市环境气候图的发展及其制作方法进行了一个总体性的回顾,然后选取德国、日本和中国香港地区的研究案例用以考察目前该领域研究和应用现状与存在问题,进一步详细探讨了未来发展的方向,最后指出了在我国城市化进程中为应对诸多气候环境问题所迫切需要开展的相关研究问题.

  10. Drifting snow climate of the Greenland ice sheet: a study with a regional climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenaerts, J.T.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.; van Angelen, J.H.; van Meijgaard, E.; Déry, S.J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the drifting snow climate of the Greenland ice sheet, using output from a high-resolution ( 11 km) regional climate model. Because reliable direct observations of drifting snow do not exist, we evaluate the modeled near-surface climate instead, using automatic weather station (AW

  11. Drifting snow climate of the Greenland ice sheet: a study with a regional climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenaerts, J.T.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/314850163; van den Broeke, M.R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643; van Angelen, J.H.; van Meijgaard, E.; Déry, S.J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the drifting snow climate of the Greenland ice sheet, using output from a high-resolution ( 11 km) regional climate model. Because reliable direct observations of drifting snow do not exist, we evaluate the modeled near-surface climate instead, using automatic weather station (AW

  12. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature.

  13. Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2011-01-01

    Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

  14. Climate Change Management Approaches of Cities: A Comparative Study Between Globally Leading and Turkish Metropolitan Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solmaz Filiz Karabag

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have focused on climate change policies and action at the national level, but few have studied policies and action at the city level, especially cities in emerging economies. To address this gap, the present study analyzes the management strategies globally leading cities have developed to address climate change and related issues and compares them with the city strategies of one rapidly urbanizing emerging economy, Turkey. In the analysis, the strategic plans of five leading global cities are compared with those of sixteen Turkish cities. While the leading global cities have specific managerial approaches to mitigate climate change, none of the Turkish cities exhibits any comprehensive approach. Furthermore, while leading global cities modify urban services to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, few Turkish cities adjust any services to address this challenge. Some Turkish cities propose an increased use of renewable energy sources and modification in their transportation system, but the focus in these plans is the current daily needs of their inhabitants. The findings of this study suggest several climate change strategies both for Turkish cities and cities in other developing countries.

  15. Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.

    2008-12-01

    Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal

  16. The Polar Regions and Martian Climate: Studies with a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, R. J.; Richardson, M. I.; Smith, M. D.

    2003-01-01

    Much of the interest in the polar regions centers on the fact that they likely contain the best record of Martian climate change on time scales from years to eons. This expectation is based upon the observed occurrence of weathering product deposits and volatile reservoirs that are coupled to the climate. Interpretation and understanding of these records requires understanding of the mechanisms that involve the exchange of dust, water, and carbon dioxide between the surface and atmosphere, and the atmospheric redistribution of these species. We will summarize our use of the GFDL Mars general circulation model (MGCM), to exploration aspects of the interaction between the global climate and the polar regions. For example, our studies have shown that while the northern polar cap is the dominant seasonal source for water, it can act as a net annual source or sink for water, depending upon the cap temperatures and the bulk humidity of the atmosphere. This behavior regulates the annual and global average humidity of the atmosphere, as the cap acts as a sink if the atmosphere is too wet and a source if it is too dry. We will then focus our presentation on the ability of the MGCM to simulate the observed diurnal variations of surface temperature. We are particularly interested in assessing the influence of dust aerosol and water ice clouds on simulated surface temperature and the comparison with observations. Surface thermal inertia and albedo are critical boundary inputs for MGCM simulations. Thermal inertia is also of intrinsic interest as it may be related to properties of the surface such as particle size and surface character.

  17. Climate implications of carbonaceous aerosols: An aerosol microphysical study using the GISS/MATRIX climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi; Koch, Dorothy; Bond, Tami; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2010-04-09

    Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a likely short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, cloud-indirect and semi-direct forcing effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and its climate interactions. Black carbon is directly released as particle into the atmosphere, but then interacts with other gases and particles through condensation and coagulation processes leading to further aerosol growth, aging and internal mixing. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the global GISS modelE includes the above processes that determine the lifecycle and climate impact of aerosols. This study presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative forcing. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing change is -0.56 W/m{sup 2} between 1750 and 2000. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are very sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative forcing change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m{sup 2} depending on these carbonaceous particle properties. Assuming that sulfates, nitrates and secondary organics form a coating shell around a black carbon core, rather than forming a uniformly mixed particles, changes the overall net radiative forcing from a negative to a positive number. Black carbon mitigation scenarios showed generally a benefit when mainly black carbon sources such as diesel emissions are reduced, reducing organic and black carbon sources such as bio-fuels, does not lead to reduced warming.

  18. Sustainable development and climate change: Lessons from country studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Shukla, P.; Garg, A.

    2008-01-01

    national et les concessions entre les différents aspects du développement durable qui doivent être abordés. Les secteurs de l'énergie et du transport sont couverts dans maintes études, et un certain degré d'attention est aussi porté au secteur de l'infrastructure et de l'approvisionnement en eau. La....... The energy and transportation sectors are covered in many studies, but some attention is also given to the infrastructure sector and water supply. Most existing development policies will not lead to a sustainable development pattern, since they insufficiently address climate change. However, good...... opportunities exist for integrated policies to achieve development goals while engaging with climate change. The energy and transportation sector studies identified many alternative national low-cost policies with much lower GHG emissions than the business-as-usual policy. Opportunities are identified...

  19. Climate Literacy: Climate.gov Follow-Up Evaluation—A Study of the Four NOAA Audiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepold, F., III; Sullivan, S. B.; Gold, A. U.; Lynds, S. E.; Kirk, K.

    2014-12-01

    NOAA Climate.gov provides science and information for a climate-smart nation. Americans' health, security, and economic well-being are closely linked to climate and weather. NOAA Climate.gov's goals are to promote public understanding of climate science and climate-related events, to make our data products and services easy to access and use, to support educators in improving the nations climate literacy, and to serve people making climate-related decisions with tools and resources that help them answer specific questions.The Climate.Gov Follow-Up Study of the four NOAA Audiences (climate interested public, educators, scientists, policy-makers) built upon the previous literature review and evaluation study conducted by Mooney and Phillips in 2010 and 2012, http://tinyurl.com/ma8vo83. The CIRES Education and Outreach team at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at University of Colorado at Boulder and the NOAA Climate.gov team will present results of the new study that used the Quality of Relationship index (awareness, trust, satisfaction, usability, and control mutuality). This index was developed in the previous study and places a new emphasis on the experience of individual users from the four audiences in their regular work or home setting. This new evaluation project used mixed methods, including an online survey, usability studies, phone interviews, and web statistics, providing multiple lines of evidence from which to draw conclusion and recommendations.In the session, we will explore how the NOAA Climate.gov teams used the literature review and new CIRES research to address underlying challenges to achieving the portal's goals. The research in these studies finds that people seek information in ways that are complex and that they do so by consulting a vast array of technologies. Improved and different modes of access to information have, throughout history, been led by technological innovation, but human behavior tends to be

  20. Ecological impacts of atmospheric pollution and interactions with climate change in terrestrial ecosystems of the Mediterranean Basin: Current research and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa-Hueso, Raúl; Munzi, Silvana; Alonso, Rocío; Arróniz-Crespo, María; Avila, Anna; Bermejo, Victoria; Bobbink, Roland; Branquinho, Cristina; Concostrina-Zubiri, Laura; Cruz, Cristina; Cruz de Carvalho, Ricardo; De Marco, Alessandra; Dias, Teresa; Elustondo, David; Elvira, Susana; Estébanez, Belén; Fusaro, Lina; Gerosa, Giacomo; Izquieta-Rojano, Sheila; Lo Cascio, Mauro; Marzuoli, Riccardo; Matos, Paula; Mereu, Simone; Merino, José; Morillas, Lourdes; Nunes, Alice; Paoletti, Elena; Paoli, Luca; Pinho, Pedro; Rogers, Isabel B; Santos, Arthur; Sicard, Pierre; Stevens, Carly J; Theobald, Mark R

    2017-08-01

    Mediterranean Basin ecosystems, their unique biodiversity, and the key services they provide are currently at risk due to air pollution and climate change, yet only a limited number of isolated and geographically-restricted studies have addressed this topic, often with contrasting results. Particularities of air pollution in this region include high O3 levels due to high air temperatures and solar radiation, the stability of air masses, and dominance of dry over wet nitrogen deposition. Moreover, the unique abiotic and biotic factors (e.g., climate, vegetation type, relevance of Saharan dust inputs) modulating the response of Mediterranean ecosystems at various spatiotemporal scales make it difficult to understand, and thus predict, the consequences of human activities that cause air pollution in the Mediterranean Basin. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement coordinated research and experimental platforms along with wider environmental monitoring networks in the region. In particular, a robust deposition monitoring network in conjunction with modelling estimates is crucial, possibly including a set of common biomonitors (ideally cryptogams, an important component of the Mediterranean vegetation), to help refine pollutant deposition maps. Additionally, increased attention must be paid to functional diversity measures in future air pollution and climate change studies to establish the necessary link between biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services in Mediterranean ecosystems. Through a coordinated effort, the Mediterranean scientific community can fill the above-mentioned gaps and reach a greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying the combined effects of air pollution and climate change in the Mediterranean Basin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Oceanic influence on the precipitation in Venezuela under current and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tim, Nele; Bravo de Guenni, Lelys

    2016-07-01

    The Pacific and Atlantic oceanic influences on observational rainfall data from weather stations over Venezuela are analyzed using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) executed in the Climate Predictability Tool. CCA is further conducted on rainfall and sea surface temperature data obtained from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) for historical (1951-2010) and future (2041-2100) periods. Four oceanic regions (North Tropical Atlantic, Niño3, Niño3.4 and an area which includes all previous three) are used for the CCA using data from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) data set, while precipitation data from two regions: a coastal region and an inland region are used in the analysis. Venezuelan seasons (dry and wet) were separated into an early and a late period. The oceanic impact on the precipitation of the station data is, in the majority of the cases, higher in the inland than at the coast. The Pacific's influence is stronger in the early dry season than in the wet season, whereas the Atlantic's influence is stronger in the wet season (inland). In contrast, CCA applied to the model data provides highest correlation coefficients in the late wet season for all oceanic regions. In most cases the North Tropical Atlantic has a stronger influence than the Niño regions.

  2. Teachers' Autonomy in Today's Educational Climate: Current Perceptions from an Acceptable Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Luman E. G.; Yoshida, Roland K.

    2014-01-01

    This research evaluated the psychometric properties of Friedman's (1999) Teacher Work-Autonomy Scale (TWA) to determine whether it was an acceptable instrument to measure U.S. teacher autonomy in the present educational context. A second purpose was to ascertain the current status of teachers' perceptions of their autonomy from a sample of U.S.…

  3. Teachers' Autonomy in Today's Educational Climate: Current Perceptions from an Acceptable Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Luman E. G.; Yoshida, Roland K.

    2014-01-01

    This research evaluated the psychometric properties of Friedman's (1999) Teacher Work-Autonomy Scale (TWA) to determine whether it was an acceptable instrument to measure U.S. teacher autonomy in the present educational context. A second purpose was to ascertain the current status of teachers' perceptions of their autonomy from a sample of U.S.…

  4. Terrestrial hydro-climatic change, lake shrinkage and water resource deterioration: Analysis of current to future drivers across Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarsjo, J.; Beygi, H.; Thorslund, J.

    2016-12-01

    Due to overlapping effects of different anthropogenic pressures and natural variability, main drivers behind on-going changes in the water cycle have in many cases not been identified, which complicates management of water resources. For instance, in many parts of the world, and not least in semi-arid and arid parts of Asia, lowered groundwater levels and shrinkage of surface water bodies with associated salinization and water quality deterioration constitute great challenges. With the aim to identify main drivers and mechanisms behind such changes, we here combine (i) historical observations of long-term, large scale change, (ii) ensemble projections of expected future change from the climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) and (iii) output from water balance modelling. Our particular focus is on regions near shrinking lakes. For the principal Lake Urmia in Iran, results show that agricultural intensification including irrigation expansion has clearly contributed to the surprisingly rapid water quality deterioration and lake shrinkage, from 10% lake area reduction in 2002 to the current value of about 75% (leaving billion of tons of salt exposed in its basin). Nevertheless, runoff decrease due to climate change has had an even larger effect. For the Aral Sea in Central Asia, where problems accelerated much earlier (in the 1990's), land-use change and irrigation expansion can fully explain the disastrous surface water deficits and water quality problems in the extensive low-lying parts of the basin. However, projections show that climate-driven runoff decrease in the headwaters of the Aral Sea basin may become a dominant driver of continued change in the near-future. More generally, present results illustrate that mitigation measures that compensate only for land-use driven effects may not reverse current trends of decreasing water availability, due to increasingly strong impacts of climate-driven runoff decrease. This has

  5. Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate-Magnitude and Determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Åström, Christofer; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Andersson, Camilla; Ebi, Kristie L; Forsberg, Bertil

    2017-07-07

    The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge.

  6. Collapse of the California Current during glacial maxima linked to climate change on land.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbert, T D; Schuffert, J D; Andreasen, D; Heusser, L; Lyle, M; Mix, A; Ravelo, A C; Stott, L D; Herguera, J C

    2001-07-06

    Time series of alkenone unsaturation indices gathered along the California margin reveal large (4 degrees to 8 degrees C) glacial-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST) over the past 550,000 years. Interglacial times with SSTs equal to or exceeding that of the Holocene contain peak abundances in the pollen of redwood, the distinctive component of the temperate rainforest of the northwest coast of California. In the region now dominated by the California Current, SSTs warmed 10,000 to 15,000 years in advance of deglaciation at each of the past five glacial maxima. SSTs did not rise in advance of deglaciation south of the modern California Current front. Glacial warming along the California margin therefore is a regional signal of the weakening of the California Current during times when large ice sheets reorganized wind systems over the North Pacific. Both the timing and magnitude of the SST estimates suggest that the Devils Hole (Nevada) calcite record represents regional but not global paleotemperatures, and hence does not pose a fundamental challenge to the orbital ("Milankovitch") theory of the Ice Ages.

  7. Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helge Walentowski

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea, whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

  8. Why Classroom Climate Matters for Children High in Anxious Solitude: A Study of Differential Susceptibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Kathleen; Coplan, Robert J

    2017-03-20

    The goal of the current study was to examine the complex links among anxious solitude, classroom climate, engagement, achievement, and gender. In particular, drawing upon the differential susceptibility hypothesis (Belsky, 1997), we investigated if children high in anxious solitude were particularly sensitive and responsive to the classroom environment. Participants were N = 712 children in Grade 3, drawn from the National Institute of Child and Human Development (NICHD) Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development data set. Classroom climate and engagement were assessed using the Classroom Observation Scale (NICHD, 1998). Teachers completed the Teacher Report Form (Achenbach, 1991) as a measure of anxious solitude and the Academic Rating Scale (NICHD, 2010) as a measure of achievement. Hypothesized associations among variables were tested by way of a moderated-mediation model. Among the results, engagement was found to mediate the relation between classroom climate and achievement. In addition, anxious solitude and gender were found to moderate the relation between classroom climate and engagement. Support for the differential susceptibility hypothesis was found, suggesting that children high in anxious solitude may be more reactive (both positively and negatively) to elements of the classroom environment. In addition, gender differences were observed, indicating that boys may be more responsive to the classroom environment as compared with girls. Implications for future research and educational policies are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Bioclimatic predictions of habitat suitability for the biofuel switchgrass in North America under current and future climate scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barney, Jacob N.; DiTomaso, Joseph M. [One Shields Ave, Mailstop 4, Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States)

    2010-01-15

    Dedicated biofuel crops, while providing economic and other benefits, may adversely impact biodiversity directly via land use conversion, or indirectly via creation of novel invasive species. To mitigate negative impacts bioclimatic envelope models (BEM) can be used to estimate the potential distribution and suitable habitat based on the climate and distribution in the native range. We used CLIMEX to evaluate the regions of North America suitable for agronomic production, as well as regions potentially susceptible to an invasion of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) under both current and future climate scenarios. Model results show that >8.7 million km{sup 2} of North America has suitable to very favorable habitat, most of which occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. The non-native range of western North America is largely unsuitable to switchgrass as a crop or potential weed unless irrigation or permanent water is available. Under both the CGCM2 and HadCM3 climate models and A2 and B2 emissions scenarios, an overall increase in suitable habitat is predicted over the coming century, although the western US remains unsuitable. Our results suggest that much of North America is suitable for switchgrass cultivation, although this is likely to shift north in the coming century. Our results also agree with field collections of switchgrass outside its native range, which indicate that switchgrass is unlikely to establish unless it has access to water throughout the year (e.g., along a stream). Thus, it is the potential invasion of switchgrass into riparian habitats in the West that requires further investigation. (author)

  10. Multi-scale climate change modeling study over the Greater Horn of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowden, Jared Heath

    There has been limited regional climate modeling (RCM) studies of climate change over the Greater Horn of Africa because of challenges in evaluating model performance with a limited observational network. The ultimate goal of this study was to provide a RCM climate change projection for the GHA. RCM climate change projections are particularly important for the GHA because the surface boundary forcing varies on horizontal scales not resolved by the IPCC General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for current regional climate change assessment. This study adopted several steps to provide optimal RCM projections and understand the uncertainty and added value of the RCM projections. These steps include the following: (1) model customization; (2) multi-year continuous RCM simulation with Reanalysis ICBCs and a single GCM; (3) GCM mean error; (4) A2 GCM projections; (5) A2 RCM projections; (6) modified ICBC approach. The RCM was customized with particular interest in precipitation processes. The customization found that the convective scheme of MIT-Emanuel in conjunction with reducing the relative humidity for threshold for cloud formation provided the most realistic simulation in terms of spatial distribution, convective partition, rainfall totals and temperature bias when compared with observations. The above RCM customization run for multiple years illustrated the RCM has more value for temperature than precipitation. The RCM was able to capture the inter-annual temperature variability, but the positive precipitation bias limited the models ability for inter-annual precipitation variability. However, the RCM was able to capture lower frequency modes of variability for precipitation. Comparison of multi-year RCM simulations using the GCM and Reanalysis lateral boundary forcing implied that the lateral boundary forcing is more important to the RCM solution than errors internal to the RCM. Comparison of the GCMs mean errors illustrated that the mean average performance

  11. Studies towards assessing the effects of aviation on climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodayari, Arezoo

    Emissions from aviation are an important component in the overall concerns about the effects of human activities on climate. Aviation emissions modify the chemical and physical properties of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) in various ways. Aircraft emit gases and particles that can either directly or indirectly affect climate and air quality, including: carbon dioxide (CO2); nitrogen oxides (NOx) that can increase ozone (O3) production and increase the destruction of methane (CH4); water vapor that under certain atmospheric conditions can lead to contrail formation; and soot and other particles that along with contrails can affect the amount and characteristics of cirrus clouds. Soot and sulfate particles can also change the cloudiness by acting as cloud condensation nuclei. Due to the high growth in air traffic that is projected to continue, it is important to understand the effects of aviation on air quality and climate. Based on then existing analyses of the emissions and their effects, the aviation contribution in changing the radiative forcing on the climate system was about 5% of the total human-related emissions (relative to 1750) in 2005 (Lee et al., 2009). This contribution is a result of various effects, especially the direct effects of CO2, NOx-induced effects, aerosol direct and indirect effects, and increased cloudiness from contrail formation and aerosols acting as cloud condensation nuclei. One of the main challenges of the aviation scientific community has been to increase the level of scientific understanding of these effects, especially with respect to those most uncertain (i.e. NOx effects, contrail-cirrus and aerosol effects). Another challenge has been to develop a simple climate model (SCM) that has the level of sophistication necessary to accurately assess aviation induced climate effects while being easy to use by policy makers for use in policy considerations. The main objectives in this study were: (1) to evaluate the

  12. Strategic risk assessment: A case study of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beer, T. [CSIRO, Mordialloc, Victoria (Australia). Div. of Atmospheric Research

    1996-12-31

    The philosophical basis for the on-going international and Australian action on climate change is the precautionary principle. The version of this relevant to Australia is that agreed to by the Australian States and by the Commonwealth of Australia as expressed in the Inter-Governmental Agreement on the Environment (IGAE). This study addresses the following questions: 1. What form of assessment of the risk-weighted consequences of climate change has been undertaken, as required under the precautionary principle? This paper claims that the IPCC process constitutes the risk-weighted assessment that is needed to justify the use of the precautionary principle. 2. Reducing the risk due to climate change requires actions on the basis of some combination of environmental integrity, equity, and economic efficiency as measured by cost-benefit analysis. Is the concept of intergenerational equity consistent with cost-benefit analysis? This paper claims that the problems of valuation over future time-scales, which may range from decades to centuries, make it difficult to apply cost-benefit analysis to the problem.

  13. Issues in Establishing Climate Sensitivity in Recent Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John T. Fasullo

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Numerous attempts have been made to constrain climate sensitivity with observations [1-10] (with [6] as LC09, [8] as SB11. While all of these attempts contain various caveats and sources of uncertainty, some efforts have been shown to contain major errors and are demonstrably incorrect. For example, multiple studies [11-13] separately addressed weaknesses in LC09 [6]. The work of Trenberth et al. [13], for instance, demonstrated a basic lack of robustness in the LC09 method that fundamentally undermined their results. Minor changes in that study’s subjective assumptions yielded major changes in its main conclusions. Moreover, Trenberth et al. [13] criticized the interpretation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO as an analogue for exploring the forced response of the climate system. In addition, as many cloud variations on monthly time scales result from internal atmospheric variability, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, cloud variability is not a deterministic response to surface temperatures. Nevertheless, many of the problems in LC09 [6] have been perpetuated, and Dessler [10] has pointed out similar issues with two more recent such attempts [7,8]. Here we briefly summarize more generally some of the pitfalls and issues involved in developing observational constraints on climate feedbacks. [...

  14. Organizational Climate, Faculty Trust: Predicting Student Bullying--An Elementary School Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderton, Tenna

    2012-01-01

    Bullying is a serious problem among students. Research linking school climate and trust as to bullying is minimal. This study examined elements of school climate and trust in relation to bullying and protection using Hoy and Smith's (2004) climate study and Smith and Birney's (2005) trust study. Trust was found to be the significant predictor of…

  15. Extending to seasonal scales the current usage of short range weather forecasts and climate projections for water management in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Camino, Ernesto; Voces, José; Sánchez, Eroteida; Navascues, Beatriz; Pouget, Laurent; Roldan, Tamara; Gómez, Manuel; Cabello, Angels; Comas, Pau; Pastor, Fernando; Concepción García-Gómez, M.°; José Gil, Juan; Gil, Delfina; Galván, Rogelio; Solera, Abel

    2016-04-01

    This presentation, first, briefly describes the current use of weather forecasts and climate projections delivered by AEMET for water management in Spain. The potential use of seasonal climate predictions for water -in particular dams- management is then discussed more in-depth, using a pilot experience carried out by a multidisciplinary group coordinated by AEMET and DG for Water of Spain. This initiative is being developed in the framework of the national implementation of the GFCS and the European project, EUPORIAS. Among the main components of this experience there are meteorological and hydrological observations, and an empirical seasonal forecasting technique that provides an ensemble of water reservoir inflows. These forecasted inflows feed a prediction model for the dam state that has been adapted for this purpose. The full system is being tested retrospectively, over several decades, for selected water reservoirs located in different Spanish river basins. The assessment includes an objective verification of the probabilistic seasonal forecasts using standard metrics, and the evaluation of the potential social and economic benefits, with special attention to drought and flooding conditions. The methodology of implementation of these seasonal predictions in the decision making process is being developed in close collaboration with final users participating in this pilot experience.

  16. Practical guidance material for the development, energy and climate country studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halsnaes, K.; Garg, A.; Olhoff, A.; Denton, F.

    2006-10-15

    The document is developed as part of the Development, Energy and Climate project in order to facilitate methodological consistency and the use of common assumptions in national case studies in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Senegal and South Africa that are conducted as part of the project. In addition to this document the project and country studies are also based on in depth thematic work in three areas namely; 1) Development pathways and climate change; 2) Assessment of Policy Instruments in the Context of Current Market Structure, Institutional Capacities and Risks in Developing Countries; 3) Climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in the energy sector with a special emphasis given to linkages between adaptation and mitigation policies. The Development, Energy, and Climate project will identify promising energy policy options in the participating countries that are consistent with their national sustainable development objectives. The project teams from Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Senegal will examine how energy sector policies can be evaluated using specific sustainable development indicators and existing analytical approaches and tools relevant to the countries. The country studies will address energy sector issues, adaptation policies, and alternative scenarios for technology penetration processes. The policy options and the sustainable development impacts of implementing these will be discussed in national stakeholder dialogues with broad participation of government, private sector and NGOs. Cross-country interactions about conceptual and common methodological issues will be covered in three thematic papers. The project will produce a synthesis of the country case studies as an input to various international processes in order to build support for approaches that integrate sustainable development, energy and climate policies. (au)

  17. Groundwater and climate change in Africa : review of recharge studies

    OpenAIRE

    Bonsor, H. C.; MacDonald, A. M.

    2010-01-01

    The review of recharge studies was conducted as part of a one year DFID-funded research programme, aimed at improving understanding of the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources and local livelihoods – see http://www.bgs.ac.uk/GWResilience/. The review is one of a series of components within the project. The overall outputs of the project are: Two hydrogeological case studies in West and East Africa – which assess the storage and availability of groundwater in different aquifers a...

  18. Effects of Climatic Region on Peritonitis Risk, Microbiology, Treatment, and Outcomes: a Multicenter Registry Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Yeoungjee; Badve, Sunil V.; Hawley, Carmel M.; McDonald, Stephen P.; Brown, Fiona G.; Boudville, Neil; Wiggins, Kathryn J.; Bannister, Kym M.; Clayton, Philip; Johnson, David W.

    2013-01-01

    ♦ Background: The impact of climatic variations on peritoneal dialysis (PD)-related peritonitis has not been studied in detail. The aim of the current study was to determine whether various climatic zones influenced the probability of occurrence or the clinical outcomes of peritonitis. ♦ Methods: Using ANZDATA registry data, the study in cluded all Australian patients receiving PD between 1 October 2003 and 31 December 2008. Climatic regions were defined according to the Köppen classification. ♦ Results: The overall peritonitis rate was 0.59 episodes per patient-year. Most of the patients lived in Temperate regions (65%), with others residing in Subtropical (26%), Tropical (6%), and Other climatic regions (Desert, 0.6%; Grassland, 2.3%). Compared with patients in Temperate regions, those in Tropical regions demonstrated significantly higher overall peritonitis rates and a shorter time to a first peritonitis episode [adjusted hazard ratio: 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01 to 1.31]. Culture-negative peritonitis was significantly less likely in Tropical regions [adjusted odds ratio (OR): 0.42; 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.73]; its occurrence in Subtropical and Other regions was comparable to that in Temperate regions. Fungal peritonitis was independently associated with Tropical regions (OR: 2.18; 95% CI: 1.22 to 3.90) and Other regions (OR: 3.46; 95% CI: 1.73 to 6.91), where rates of antifungal prophylaxis were also lower. Outcomes after first peritonitis episodes were comparable in all groups. ♦ Conclusions: Tropical regions were associated with a higher overall peritonitis rate (including fungal peritonitis) and a shorter time to a first peritonitis episode. Augmented peritonitis prophylactic measures such as antifungal therapy and exit-site care should be considered in PD patients residing in Tropical climates. PMID:22942270

  19. Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads Cedergreen; Post, Eric

    2004-01-01

    Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns......Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns...

  20. Theoretical studies of non inductive current drive in compact toroids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farengo, R; Lifschitz, AF; Caputi, KI; Arista, NR; Clemente, RA

    2002-01-01

    Three non inductive current drive methods that can be applied to compact toroids axe studied. The use of neutral beams to drive current in field reversed configurations and spheromaks is studied using a Monte Carlo code that includes a complete ionization package and follows the exact particle orbit

  1. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...

  2. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...

  3. Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Guoyu; DING Yihui; ZHAO Zongci; ZHENG Jingyun; WU Tongwen; TANG Guoli; XU Ying

    2012-01-01

    An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented. In the past 100 years in China,average annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03℃ (10 yr)-1 to 0.12℃ (10 yr)-1.This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring.In the past 50 years in China,at least 27% of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization.Overall,no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years. Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years. The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country,while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends.The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly,but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly.Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400-500 years in China,but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period (1000-1300 AD).Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods,with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years.The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide.The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years,which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover.However,natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean and

  4. Advancing Collaborative Climate Studies through Globally Distributed Geospatial Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, R.; Percivall, G.

    2009-12-01

    (note: acronym glossary at end of abstract) For scientists to have confidence in the veracity of data sets and computational processes not under their control, operational transparency must be much greater than previously required. Being able to have a universally understood and machine-readable language for describing such things as the completeness of metadata, data provenance and uncertainty, and the discrete computational steps in a complex process take on increased importance. OGC has been involved with technological issues associated with climate change since 2005 when we, along with the IEEE Committee on Earth Observation, began a close working relationship with GEO and GEOSS (http://earthobservations.org). GEO/GEOS provide the technology platform to GCOS who in turn represents the earth observation community to UNFCCC. OGC and IEEE are the organizers of the GEO/GEOSS Architecture Implementation Pilot (see http://www.ogcnetwork.net/AIpilot). This continuing work involves closely working with GOOS (Global Ocean Observing System) and WMO (World Meteorological Organization). This session reports on the findings of recent work within the OGC’s community of software developers and users to apply geospatial web services to the climate studies domain. The value of this work is to evolve OGC web services, moving from data access and query to geo-processing and workflows. Two projects will be described, the GEOSS API-2 and the CCIP. AIP is a task of the GEOSS Architecture and Data Committee. During its duration, two GEO Tasks defined the project: AIP-2 began as GEO Task AR-07-02, to lead the incorporation of contributed components consistent with the GEOSS Architecture using a GEO Web Portal and a Clearinghouse search facility to access services through GEOSS Interoperability Arrangements in support of the GEOSS Societal Benefit Areas. AIP-2 concluded as GEOS Task AR-09-01b, to develop and pilot new process and infrastructure components for the GEOSS Common

  5. Climate change impact on the establishment and seasonal abundance of Invasive Mosquito Species: current state and future risk maps over southeast Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagaris, Efthimios; -Eleni Sotiropoulou, Rafaella; Sotiropoulos, Andreas; Spanos, Ioannis; Milonas, Panayiotis; Michaelakis, Antonios

    2017-04-01

    Establishment and seasonal abundance of a region for Invasive Mosquito Species (IMS) are related to climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation. In this work the current state is assessed using data from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) project over Greece and Italy for the development of current spatial risk databases of IMS. Results are validated from the installation of a prototype IMS monitoring device that has been designed and developed in the framework of the LIFE CONOPS project at key points across the two countries. Since climate models suggest changes in future temperature and precipitation rates, the future potentiality of IMS establishment and spread over Greece and Italy is assessed using the climatic parameters in 2050's provided by the NASA GISS GCM ModelE under the IPCC-A1B emissions scenarios. The need for regional climate projections in a finer grid size is assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale GCM simulations. The estimated changes in the future meteorological parameters are combined with the observation data in order to estimate the future levels of the climatic parameters of interest. The final product includes spatial distribution maps presenting the future suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the IMS over Greece and Italy. Acknowledgement: LIFE CONOPS project "Development & demonstration of management plans against - the climate change enhanced - invasive mosquitoes in S. Europe" (LIFE12 ENV/GR/000466).

  6. An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Tongwen; WU Fanghua; LIU Yiming; ZHANG Fang; SHI Xueli; CHU Min; ZHANG Jie; FANG Yongjie; WANG Fang; LU Yixiong; LIU Xiangwen; SONG Lianchun; WEI Min; LIU Qianxia; ZHOU Wenyan; DONG Min; ZHAO Qigeng; JI Jinjun; Laurent LI; ZHOU Mingyu; LI Weiping; WANG Zaizhi; ZHANG Hua; XIN Xiaoge; ZHANG Yanwu; ZHANG Li; LI Jianglong

    2014-01-01

    This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM) and its four component models (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice). Two recent versions are described: BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution (approximately 2.8125◦×2.8125◦) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution (approximately 1.125◦×1.125◦). Both versions are fully cou-pled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation. Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed. Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase fi ve (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate pro jections. Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSM1.1 and BCC-CSM1.1(m) are presented and validated, with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales. Simulations of climate during the last millennium and pro jections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed. Both BCC-CSM1.1 and BCC-CSM1.1(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models. Preliminary analyses in-dicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSM1.1, particularly on regional scales.

  7. Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Rocha, Adrian V; Calvin, Katherine; Holmes, Bruce; Wang, Chuankuan; Goulden, Michael L

    2014-01-01

    Most North American forests are at some stage of post-disturbance regrowth, subject to a changing climate, and exhibit growth and mortality patterns that may not be closely coupled to annual environmental conditions. Distinguishing the possibly interacting effects of these processes is necessary to put short-term studies in a longer term context, and particularly important for the carbon-dense, fire-prone boreal forest. The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean tree diameter increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly. Tree mortality averaged 1.4 ± 0.6% yr-(1), with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees; new recruitment was minimal. There have been at least two, and probably three, significant influxes of new trees since stand initiation, but none in recent decades. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from sampling in 2001, 2004, and 2012 showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Higher minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. We suggest that past climate extremes led to significant mortality still visible in the current forest structure, with decadal dynamics superimposed on slower patterns of fire and succession. These results have significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS, the carbon sequestration capability of old-growth stands in a disturbance-prone landscape, and the sustainable management of

  8. Macro-economic assessment of flood risk in Italy under current and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrera, Lorenzo; Koks, Elco; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Aerts, Jeroen; Standardi, Gabriele

    2014-05-01

    This paper explores an integrated methodology for assessing direct and indirect costs of fluvial flooding to estimate current and future fluvial flood risk in Italy. Our methodology combines a Geographic Information System spatial approach, with a general economic equilibrium approach using a downscaled modified version of a Computable General Equilibrium model at NUTS2 scale. Given the level of uncertainty in the behavior of disaster-affected economies, the simulation considers a wide range of business recovery periods. We calculate expected annual losses for each NUTS2 region, and exceedence probability curves to determine probable maximum losses. Given a certain acceptable level of risk, we describe the conditions of flood protection and business recovery periods under which losses are contained within this limit. Because of the difference between direct costs, which are an overestimation of stock losses, and indirect costs, which represent the macro-economic effects, our results have different policy meanings. While the former is relevant for post-disaster recovery, the latter is more relevant for public policy issues, particularly for cost-benefit analysis and resilience assessment.

  9. A cross-region study: climate change adaptation in Malawi's agro-based systems

    OpenAIRE

    Assa, Maganga Mulagha; Gebremariam, Gebrelibanos G.; Mapemba, Lawrence D.

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture in Malawi is vulnerable to the impacts of changing climate. Adaptation is identified as one of the options to abate the negative impacts of the changing climate. This study analyzed the factors influencing different climate change adaptation choices by smallholder farmers in Malawi. We sampled 900 farmers from all three regions of Malawi, using the multistage sampling procedure, study piloted in 2012. We analyzed smallholder farmers’ climate change adaptation choices with Multinom...

  10. A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Scheme for Estimating Erosion Rates Under Current Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowman, L.; Barros, A. P.

    2014-12-01

    Computational modeling of surface erosion processes is inherently difficult because of the four-dimensional nature of the problem and the multiple temporal and spatial scales that govern individual mechanisms. Landscapes are modified via surface and fluvial erosion and exhumation, each of which takes place over a range of time scales. Traditional field measurements of erosion/exhumation rates are scale dependent, often valid for a single point-wise location or averaging over large aerial extents and periods with intense and mild erosion. We present a method of remotely estimating erosion rates using a Bayesian hierarchical model based upon the stream power erosion law (SPEL). A Bayesian approach allows for estimating erosion rates using the deterministic relationship given by the SPEL and data on channel slopes and precipitation at the basin and sub-basin scale. The spatial scale associated with this framework is the elevation class, where each class is characterized by distinct morphologic behavior observed through different modes in the distribution of basin outlet elevations. Interestingly, the distributions of first-order outlets are similar in shape and extent to the distribution of precipitation events (i.e. individual storms) over a 14-year period between 1998-2011. We demonstrate an application of the Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework for five basins and one intermontane basin located in the central Andes between 5S and 20S. Using remotely sensed data of current annual precipitation rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and topography from a high resolution (3 arc-seconds) digital elevation map (DEM), our erosion rate estimates are consistent with decadal-scale estimates based on landslide mapping and sediment flux observations and 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than most millennial and million year timescale estimates from thermochronology and cosmogenic nuclides.

  11. Water Resources Status and Availability Assessment in Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios for Beas River Basin of North Western Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, S. P.; Thakur, P. K.; Garg, V.; Nikam, B. R.; Chouksey, A.; Dhote, P.; Bhattacharya, T.

    2016-10-01

    daily surface wind speed. The GFDL model also gives validation phase scenarios from 2006 to 2015, which are used to test the overall model performance with current data. The current assessment made by hydrological water balance based approach has given reasonable good results in Beas river basin. The main limitation of this study is lack of full representation of glacier melt flow using fully energy balance model. This component will be addressed in coming time and it will be integrated with tradition hydrological and snowmelt runoff models. The other limitation of current study is dependence on NCEP or other reanalysis of climate forcing data for hydrological modelling, this leads to mismatch between actual and simulated water balance components. This problem can be addressed if more ground based and fine resolution grid based hydro meteorological data are used as input forcing data for hydrological modelling.

  12. Differences in particulate matter concentrations between urban and rural regions under current and changing climate conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mues, A.; Manders, A.; Schaap, M.; Ulft, L.H. van; Meijgaard, E. van; Builtjes, P.

    2013-01-01

    Pollution levels in urban areas and their surrounding rural regions differ due to different sources and density of emissions, different composition of pollutants as well as specific meteorological effects. These concentration differences for PM10 are investigated and compared in this study for three

  13. Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae in climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Moo-Llanes

    Full Text Available Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i potential change in niche breadth, ii direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3, for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%, while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

  14. Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M

    2013-01-01

    Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

  15. Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N.; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A.; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M.

    2013-01-01

    Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. PMID:24069478

  16. 75 FR 51806 - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-23

    ...-0701] Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices AGENCY...-day public comment period for the draft document titled, ``Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment... utilities to assess their vulnerability to future climate change. The report is intended to illustrate...

  17. Climate regionalization for main production areas of Indonesia: Case study of West Java

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perdinan; Farysca Adi, Ryco; Sugiarto, Yon; Arifah, Annisa; Yustisi Arini, Enggar; Atmaja, Tri

    2017-01-01

    Spatially, climate condition is vary within a region and considered as essential information for planning activities such as agro-climate zonation. An approach to understand the spatial climate variability is the utilization of climate regionalization that is applied to rainfall data to distinguish differences in the pattern and magnitude (characteristics) of spatial rainfall variability over a region. Unfortunately, the application of climate regionalization poses a challenging issue in Indonesia, considering the availability of climate data. Recent advances in satellite and reanalysis data measuring climate variability over a large area provided an opportunity for the application of climate regionalization in the country. Using the West Java, one of main crop production regions in Indonesia, climate regionalization techniques were applied to map spatial variability of climate types based on rainfall data recorded by climate stations (point based analysis) and estimated by modeled/reanalysis data and satellite observations (gridded data). The regionalization derived from gridded rainfall data have reasonably better in capturing the zonal pattern of differences in climate types within the study region than the regionalization applied to insufficient numbers of site-based rainfall observation. This indicates that the gridded data offers an alternative for climate regionalization, when site-based observations are unavailable or limited.

  18. Studies of climate dynamics with innovative global-model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xiaoming

    Climate simulations with different degrees of idealization are essential for the development of our understanding of the climate system. Studies in this dissertation employ carefully designed global-model simulations for the goal of gaining theoretical and conceptual insights into some problems of climate dynamics. Firstly, global warming-induced changes in extreme precipitation are investigated using a global climate model with idealized geography. The precipitation changes over an idealized north-south mid-latitude mountain barrier at the western margin of an otherwise flat continent are studied. The intensity of the 40 most intense events on the western slopes increases by about ~4°C of surface warming. In contrast, the intensity of the top 40 events on the eastern mountain slopes increases at about ~6°C. This higher sensitivity is due to enhanced ascent during the eastern-slope events, which can be explained in terms of linear mountain-wave theory relating to global warming-induced changes in the upper-tropospheric static stability and the tropopause level. Dominated by different dynamical factors, changes in the intensity of extreme precipitation events over plains and oceans might differ from changes over mountains. So the response of extreme precipitation over mountains and flat areas are further compared using larger data sets of simulated extreme events over the two types of surfaces. It is found that the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to increases in global mean surface temperature is 3% per °C lower over mountains than over the oceans or the plains. The difference in sensitivity among these regions is not due to thermodynamic effects, but rather to differences between the gravity-wave dynamics governing vertical velocities over the mountains and the cyclone dynamics governing vertical motions over the oceans and plains. The strengthening of latent heating in the storms over oceans and plains leads to stronger ascent in the warming climate

  19. Study of a fibre optics current sensor for the measurement of plasma current in ITER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuilpart, Marc; Vanus, Benoit; Andrasan, Alina; Gusarov, Andrei; Moreau, Philippe; Mégret, Patrice

    2016-05-01

    In this article, we study the feasibility of using a fibre-optics current sensor (FOCS) for the measurement of plasma current in the future fusion reactor ITER. The sensor is based on a classical FOCS interrogator involving the measurement of the state of polarization rotation undergone by the light in presence of a magnetic field (Faraday effect) in an optical fibre surrounding the current and terminated by a Faraday mirror. We considered a uniformly spun optical fibre as the sensing element and we used the Stokes formalism to simulate the sensor. The objective of the simulations is to quantify the ratio LB/SP (beat length over the spun period of the spun fibre) enabling a measurement error in agreement with the ITER specifications. The simulator takes into account the temperature variations undergone by the measurement system under ITER operation. The simulation work showed that a LB/SP ratio of 19.2 is adequate.

  20. Experimental study of the dynamics of a thin current sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gekelman, W.; DeHaas, T.; Van Compernolle, B.; Daughton, W.; Pribyl, P.; Vincena, S.; Hong, D.

    2016-05-01

    Many plasmas in natural settings or in laboratory experiments carry currents. In magnetized plasmas the currents can be narrow field-aligned filaments as small as the electron inertial length ≤ft(\\tfrac{c}{{ω }pe}\\right) in the transverse dimension or fill the entire plasma column. Currents can take the form of sheets, again with the transverse dimension the narrow one. Are laminar sheets of electric current in a magnetized plasma stable? This became an important issue in the 1960s when current-carrying plasmas became key in the quest for thermonuclear fusion. The subject is still under study today. The conditions necessary for the onset for tearing are known, the key issue is that of the final state. Is there a final state? One possibility is a collection of stable tubes of current. On the other hand, is the interaction between the current filaments which are the byproduct endless, or does it go on to become chaotic? The subject of three-dimensional current systems is intriguing, rich in a variety of phenomena on multiple scale sizes and frequencies, and relevant to fusion studies, solar physics, space plasmas and astrophysical phenomena. In this study a long (δz = 11 m) and narrow (δx = 1 cm, δy = 20 cm) current sheet is generated in a background magnetoplasma capable of supporting Alfvén waves. The current is observed to rapidly tear into a series of magnetic islands when viewed in a cross-sectional plane, but they are in essence three-dimensional flux ropes. At the onset of the current, magnetic field line reconnection is observed between the flux ropes. The sheet on the whole is kink-unstable, and after kinking exhibits large-scale, low-frequency (f ≪ f ci ) rotation about the background field with an amplitude that grows with distance from the source of the current. Three-dimensional data of the magnetic and electric fields is acquired throughout the duration of the experiment and the parallel resistivity is derived from it. The parallel

  1. Climate variability and campylobacter infection: an international study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari Kovats, R.; Edwards, Sally J.; Charron, Dominique; Cowden, John; D'Souza, Rennie M.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Gauci, Charmaine; Gerner-Smidt, Peter; Hajat, Shakoor; Hales, Simon; Hernández Pezzi, Gloria; Kriz, Bohumir; Kutsar, Kuulo; McKeown, Paul; Mellou, Kassiani; Menne, Bettina; O'Brien, Sarah; Pelt, Wilfrid; Schmid, Hans

    2005-03-01

    Campylobacter is among the most important agents of enteritis in developed countries. We have described the potential environmental determinants of the seasonal pattern of infection with campylobacter in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Specifically, we investigated the role of climate variability on laboratory-confirmed cases of campylobacter infection from 15 populations. Regression analysis was used to quantify the associations between timing of seasonal peaks in infection in space and time. The short-term association between weekly weather and cases was also investigated using Poisson regression adapted for time series data. All countries in our study showed a distinct seasonality in campylobacter transmission, with many, but not all, populations showing a peak in spring. Countries with milder winters have peaks of infection earlier in the year. The timing of the peak of infection is weakly associated with high temperatures 3 months previously. Weekly variation in campylobacter infection in one region of the UK appeared to be little affected by short-term changes in weather patterns. The geographical variation in the timing of the seasonal peak suggests that climate may be a contributing factor to campylobacter transmission. The main driver of seasonality of campylobacter remains elusive and underscores the need to identify the major serotypes and routes of transmission for this disease.

  2. Institutional capacity and climate actions. Case studies on Mexico, India and Bulgaria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tudela, F. [El Colegio de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Gupta, S. [Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi (India); Peeva, V. [Eneffect, Center for Energy Efficiency, Sofia (Bulgaria); Willems, S. [Global and Structural Policies Division, OECD Environment Directorate, Paris (France)

    2003-07-01

    Institutional capacity is increasingly considered as a key factor in implementing current climate actions in different parts of the world as well as in preparing for future actions in the medium term. The companion paper to this document, 'Institutional Capacity and Climate Actions' attempts to provide a general assessment of the institutional challenges to climate mitigation (and, to a lesser extent, adaptation). However, institutional capacity assessments are essentially country-specific. The case studies included in this document present initial capacity assessments for three different countries, namely Mexico, India and Bulgaria. These country-specific capacity assessments provide useful insights on each country's institutional challenges and how they might affect the development of current and future actions. These three case studies also represent different ways to analyse the links between institutional capacity and climate actions. The Mexican case study analyses the recent evolution in the development of capacity for climate change mitigation in Mexico. First, capacity is analyzed in terms of seven clusters of functions, each one with different levels of performance. The document also provides a background of national circumstances that frame the capacity building process in the case of Mexico. A description follows of the recent evolution of the performance of each one of the seven identified functional clusters in Mexico. Both progress and regressions are shown. One of the salient features is the recently acquired capacity to develop in an autonomous way regular inventories of greenhouse gases, particularly in the energy-related sectors. The document also identifies some institutional or political bottlenecks or obstacles that should be overcome if the country is to proceed at a faster pace toward the adoption of quantifiable targets. Finally, the Mexican case study presents some ideas on the relationships between changes in the

  3. Is the impact of future climate change on hydro-climatic conditions significant? - A climate change study for an Eastern European catchment area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlik, Dirk; Söhl, Dennis; Bernhofer, Christian

    2014-05-01

    The future change of climatic conditions is, among others, closely linked to future hydrological changes. One important aspect of these issues is the question of future availability of water resources. A changed climatic water balance, as indicator for potential water availability, has far-reaching consequences for the water cycle, hydrological conditions, ecology, water management, the energy business, agriculture and forestry, and for anthropogenic use of the river. We generated regional climate projections via dynamic downscaling for the catchment area of the Western Bug river in the border area of Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. The hydro-climatic conditions of the past and their projected future changes in the catchment were analyzed based on 2m-temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and climatic water balance. Up to the end of the century, the used IPCC scenarios B1 and A2 lead to warming for each month in the long-term mean, with highest warming rates in winter. Instead, precipitation does not change in the long-term yearly mean. However, the intra-annual distribution of monthly precipitation sums shifts with an increase in winter and a strong decrease in summer. Combined, this leads to a changed climatic water balance with a stronger deficit in summer and a higher gain in winter. Particular in the south-eastern part of the catchment, the summer deficit cannot be compensated within the annual cycle. It raised the question: are these changes statistically significant and thus robust for use in further impact studies? Using a significance analysis, we found, that climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and potential evaporation and thus the climatic water balance change is most significant for scenario A2 from 2071 to 2100. The temperature changes are significant throughout the year. For the other variables changes are most significant in the late summer months (July, August, and September) and the winter months (December, January, and February

  4. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engels Stefan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate, highlighting the effects of solar forcing on a range of timescales. On a decadal timescale, instrumental measurements as well as historical records show the effects of the 11-year Schwabe cycle on climate. The variation in total solar irradiance that is associated with a Schwabe cycle is only ~1 W m−2 between a solar minimum and a maximum, but winter and spring temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere show a response even to this small-scale variability. There is a large body of evidence from palaeoclimatic reconstructions that shows the influence of solar activity on a centennial to millennial timescale. We highlight a period of low solar activity starting at 2800 years before present when Europe experienced a shift to colder and wetter climate conditions. The spatial pattern of climate change that can be recognized in the palaeoclimatological data is in line with the suggested pattern of climate change as simulated by climate models. Millennial-scale climate oscillations can be recognized in sediment records from the Atlantic Ocean as well as in records of lake-level fluctuations in southeastern France. These oscillations coincide with variation in 14C production as recognized in the atmospheric 14C record (which is a proxy-record for solar activity, suggesting that Earth’s climate is sensitive to changes in solar activity on a millennial timescale as well.

  5. Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    The present paper investigates possible impacts of the climate change on building risks caused by typhoons. The inputs to this investigation are: (1) outcomes from the numerical simulations with a Global Climate Model (GCM) developed under the framework of the KAKUSHIN program, (2) statistics...... on building damage in the event of Typhoon Songda, and (3) numerical simulation of the wind field induced by the typhoon Songda with the JMA Non- Hydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM). The first input is utilized to develop two sets of probabilistic typhoon models; i.e. corresponding to the current climate...... and the future climate subject to the climate change, whereas the other inputs are utilized to develop a model for structural performance of buildings. Taking basis in these models, changes of building risks under the climate change are investigated. The result shows that the building risks slightly decrease...

  6. Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    The present paper investigates possible impacts of the climate change on building risks caused by typhoons. The inputs to this investigation are: (1) outcomes from the numerical simulations with a Global Climate Model (GCM) developed under the framework of the KAKUSHIN program, (2) statistics...... on building damage in the event of Typhoon Songda, and (3) numerical simulation of the wind field induced by the typhoon Songda with the JMA Non- Hydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM). The first input is utilized to develop two sets of probabilistic typhoon models; i.e. corresponding to the current climate...... and the future climate subject to the climate change, whereas the other inputs are utilized to develop a model for structural performance of buildings. Taking basis in these models, changes of building risks under the climate change are investigated. The result shows that the building risks slightly decrease...

  7. Contribution of anthropology to the study of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Jessica; Dove, Michael; Lahsen, Myanna; Mathews, Andrew; McElwee, Pamela; McIntosh, Roderick; Moore, Frances; O'Reilly, Jessica; Orlove, Ben; Puri, Rajindra; Weiss, Harvey; Yager, Karina

    2013-06-01

    Understanding the challenge that climate change poses and crafting appropriate adaptation and mitigation mechanisms requires input from the breadth of the natural and social sciences. Anthropology's in-depth fieldwork methodology, long engagement in questions of society-environment interactions and broad, holistic view of society yields valuable insights into the science, impacts and policy of climate change. Yet the discipline's voice in climate change debates has remained a relatively marginal one until now. Here, we identify three key ways that anthropological research can enrich and deepen contemporary understandings of climate change.

  8. Development of virtual research environment for regional climatic and ecological studies and continuous education support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordov, Evgeny; Lykosov, Vasily; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir; Bogomolov, Vasily; Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara

    2014-05-01

    measurements data and support profound statistical analysis of storaged and modeled on demand data. In particular, one can run the integrated models, preprocess modeling results data, using dedicated modules for numerical processing perform analysys and visualize obtained results. New functionality recently has been added to the statistical analysis tools set aimed at detailed studies of climatic extremes occurring in Northern Asia. The VRE element is also supporting thematic educational courses for students and post-graduate students of the Tomsk State University. In particular, it allow students to perform on-line thematic laboratory work cycles on the basics of analysis of current and potential future regional climate change using Siberia territory as an example (Gordova et al, 2013). We plan to expand the integrated models set and add comprehensive surface and Arctic Ocean description. Developed VRE element "Climate" provides specialists involved into multidisciplinary research projects with reliable and practical instruments for integrated research of climate and ecosystems changes on global and regional scales. With its help even a user without programming skills can process and visualize multidimensional observational and model data through unified web-interface using a common graphical web-browser. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grant 13-05-12034, grant 14-05-00502, and integrated project SB RAS 131. References 1. Gordov E.P., Lykosov V.N., Krupchatnikov V.N., Okladnikov I.G., Titov A.G., Shulgina T.M. Computationaland information technologies for monitoring and modeling of climate changes and their consequences. Novosibirsk: Nauka, Siberian branch, 2013. - 195 p. (in Russian) 2. T.M. Shulgina, E.P. Gordov, I.G. Okladnikov, A.G., Titov, E.Yu. Genina, N.P. Gorbatenko, I.V. Kuzhevskaya,A.S. Akhmetshina. Software complex for a regional climate change analysis. // Vestnik NGU. Series: Information technologies. 2013. Vol. 11. Issue 1. P

  9. STUDY OF CLIMATE EVOLUTION OF THE TITU-OGREZENI IRRIGATION SYSTEM PERIMETER BY ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC DEFICIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Zamfir

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Our country's climate shows great changes both in time and space. These changes are also reflected on agriculturalproductions that also sometime presents substantial differences from one year to another and from one area to another.Based on statistical analyses on large arrays of years, it results that in Romania, the dry years are in very highproportion going up to 70%.For getting to knowing requirements from water of major agricultural crops, by the study achieved mainly thenecessary dimensioning of water for irrigations using the climate deficit method has been considered.From the chronological sequence analysis of years, under the climatic deficit, the change of this in a positive way thatleads to the need for irrigations is come out. Given the set of climatic parameters, the model that approximates the bestthe evolution tendency as some parametrical equations has been studied. Since 2009, for the next 57 years the trendline of the evolution of climatic deficit is clearly increasing in the months May-August.

  10. Out-patient management and non-attendance in the current economic climate. How best to manage our resources?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hennessy, D

    2010-03-01

    Outpatient non-attendance is a considerable source of inefficiency in the health service, wasting time, resources and potentially lengthening waiting lists, Given the current economic climate, methods need to be employed to reduce non-attendance. The aim was to analyse outpatient non-attendance and determine what factors influence attendance. A prospective audit over a two-month period to a tertiary-referral Urological service was performed to determine the clinical and demographic profile of non-attendees. Of 737 appointments, 148 (20%) patients did not attend (DNA). A benign urological condition was evident in 116 cases (78%). This group of patients also accounted for the majority of new patients not attending 40\\/47, returning patients not attending 101\\/148 and the majority of patients who missed multiple appointments 43\\/49. Patients with benign conditions make up the majority of clinic non-attendance. Consideration may be given to discharging such patients back to their general practitioner after one unexplained non-attendance until other alternatives of follow up are available.

  11. Study on Fault Current of DFIG during Slight Fault Condition

    OpenAIRE

    Xiangping Kong; Zhe Zhang; Xianggen Yin; Zhenxing Li

    2013-01-01

    In order to ensure the safety of DFIG when severe fault happens, crowbar protection is adopted. But during slight fault condition, the crowbar protection will not trip, and the DFIG is still excited by AC-DC-AC converter. In this condition, operation characteristics of the converter have large influence on the fault current characteristics of DFIG. By theoretical analysis and digital simulation, the fault current characteristics of DFIG during slight voltage dips are studied. And the influenc...

  12. An intercomparison of regional climate model data for hydrological impact studies in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Butts, Michael;

    2010-01-01

    The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject...... to considerable systematic errors. In this study, projected climate change data from the RCM HIRHAM4 are used to generate climate scenario time series of precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration for the period 2071-2100 for hydrological impact assessments in Denmark. RCM output for the present...

  13. New Methods for Gas Hydrate Energy and Climate Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruppel, C. D.; Pohlman, J.; Waite, W. F.; Hunt, A. G.; Stern, L. A.; Casso, M.

    2015-12-01

    Over the past few years, the USGS Gas Hydrates Project has focused on advancements designed to enhance both energy resource and climate-hydrate interaction studies. On the energy side, the USGS now manages the Pressure Core Characterization Tools (PCCTs), which includes the Instrumented Pressure Testing Chamber (IPTC) that we have long maintained. These tools, originally built at Georgia Tech, are being used to analyze hydrate-bearing sediments recovered in pressure cores during gas hydrate drilling programs (e.g., Nankai 2012; India 2015). The USGS is now modifying the PCCTs for use on high-hydrate-saturation and sand-rich sediments and hopes to catalyze third-party tool development (e.g., visualization). The IPTC is also being used for experiments on sediments hosting synthetic methane hydrate, and our scanning electron microscope has recently been enhanced with a new cryo-stage for imaging hydrates. To support climate-hydrate interaction studies, the USGS has been re-assessing the amount of methane hydrate in permafrost-associated settings at high northern latitudes and examined the links between methane carbon emissions and gas hydrate dissociation. One approach relies on the noble gas signature of methane emissions. Hydrate dissociation uniquely releases noble gases partitioned by molecular weight, providing a potential fingerprint for hydrate-sourced methane emissions. In addition, we have linked a DOC analyzer with an IRMS at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, allowing rapid and precise measurement of DOC and DIC concentrations and carbon isotopic signatures. The USGS has also refined methods to measure real-time sea-air flux of methane and CO2 using cavity ring-down spectroscopy measurements coupled with other data. Acquiring ~8000 km of data on the Western Arctic, US Atlantic, and Svalbard margins, we have tested the Arctic methane catastrophe hypothesis and the link between seafloor methane emissions and sea-air methane flux.

  14. An example of model result correction to study the impact of climate change on electricity consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parey, S.; Galloy, G.; Nogaj, M.

    2012-04-01

    Climate is changing and temperature evolutions are thought to impact electricity consumption in the future. In order to estimate these possible shifts, climate model results for two future periods: 2050 and 2100 are considered. However, the use of the electricity consumption forecast model with climate model outputs for the current period give unrealistic results compared to forecasts made with observations. As a matter of fact, consumption is forecasted using a taylor-designed mean of French temperatures. Therefore, it is necessary for the model results to be as close as possible to this observed mean. The first studies had been made using the so-called "delta method", which consists in adding future changes to the observations. This however supposes that there is no variance change, which is not necessarily valid. Thus, in a second step, the percentile correction method has been used, firstly considering the whole annual distribution. This is however not satisfactory, as the seasonal distributions remain too much biased. Thus, the correction had to be applied on a monthly basis. The method and results of the correction will be presented for this example of France.

  15. Case study applications of the BASINS climate assessment tool (CAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This EPA report will illustrate the application of different climate assessment capabilities within EPA’s BASINS modeling system for assessing a range of potential questions about the effects of climate change on streamflow and water quality in different watershed settings and us...

  16. The present-day climate of Greenland : a study with a regional climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ettema, J.

    2010-01-01

    Present-day climate of Greenland Over the past 20 years, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has warmed. This temperature increase can be explained by an increase in downwelling longwave radiation due to a warmer overlying atmosphere. These temperature changes are strongly correlated to changes in the la

  17. Upper Midwest farmer perceptions: Too much uncertainty about impacts of climate change to justify changing current agricultural practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lois Wright Morton; Gabrielle E. Roesch-McNally; Adam Wilke

    2017-01-01

    To be uncertain is to be unsure or have doubt. Results from a random sample survey show the majority (89.5%) of farmers in the Upper Midwest perceived there was too much uncertainty about the impacts of climate to justify changing their agricultural practices and strategies, despite scientific evidence regarding the causes and potential consequences of climate change....

  18. Study of the weak charged hadronic current in b decays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acciarri, M.; Adriani, O.; Aguilar-Benitez, M.; Ahlen, S.; Alpat, B.; Alcaraz, J.; Alemanni, G.; Allaby, J.; Aloisio, A.; Alverson, G.; Alviggi, M. G.; Ambrosi, G.; Anderhub, H.; Andreev, V. P.; Angelescu, T.; Anselmo, F.; Antreasyan, D.; Arefiev, A.; Azemoon, T.; Aziz, T.; Bagnaia, P.; Baksay, L.; Ball, R. C.; Banerjee, S.; Banicz, K.; Barillère, R.; Barone, L.; Bartalini, P.; Baschirotto, A.; Basile, M.; Battiston, R.; Bay, A.; Becattini, F.; Becker, U.; Behner, F.; Berdugo, J.; Berges, P.; Bertucci, B.; Betev, B. L.; Bhattacharya, S.; Biasini, M.; Biland, A.; Bilei, G. M.; Blaising, J. J.; Blyth, S. C.; Bobbink, G. J.; Bock, R.; Böhm, A.; Borgia, B.; Boucham, A.; Bourilkov, D.; Bourquin, M.; Boutigny, D.; Branson, J. G.; Brigljevic, V.; Brock, I. C.; Buffini, A.; Buijs, A.; Burger, J. D.; Burger, W. J.; Busenitz, J.; Buytenhuijs, A.; Cai, X. D.; Campanelli, M.; Capell, M.; Romeo, G. Cara; Caria, M.; Carlino, G.; Cartacci, A. M.; Casaus, J.; Castellini, G.; Cavallari, F.; Cavallo, N.; Cecchi, C.; Cerrada, M.; Cesaroni, F.; Chamizo, M.; Chan, A.; Chang, Y. H.; Chaturvedi, U. K.; Chemarin, M.; Chen, A.; Chen, G.; Chen, G. M.; Chen, H. F.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, M.; Chiefari, G.; Chien, C. Y.; Choi, M. T.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Civinini, C.; Clare, I.; Clare, R.; Cohn, H. O.; Coignet, G.; Colijn, A. P.; Colino, N.; Commichau, V.; Costantini, S.; Cotorobai, F.; de La Cruz, B.; Csilling, A.; Dai, T. S.; D'Alessandro, R.; de Asmundis, R.; de Boeck, H.; Degré, A.; Deiters, K.; Denes, P.; Denotaristefani, F.; Dibitonto, D.; Diemoz, M.; van Dierendonck, D.; di Lodovico, F.; Dionisi, C.; Dittmar, M.; Dominguez, A.; Doria, A.; Dorne, I.; Dova, M. T.; Drago, E.; Duchesneau, D.; Duinker, P.; Duran, I.; Dutta, S.; Easo, S.; Efremenko, Yu.; El Mamouni, H.; Engler, A.; Eppling, F. J.; Erné, F. C.; Ernenwein, J. P.; Extermann, P.; Fabre, M.; Faccini, R.; Falciano, S.; Favara, A.; Fay, J.; Fedin, O.; Felcini, M.; Fenyi, B.; Ferguson, T.; Fernandez, D.; Ferroni, F.; Fesefeldt, H.; Fiandrini, E.; Field, J. H.; Filthaut, F.; Fisher, P. H.; Forconi, G.; Fredj, L.; Freudenreich, K.; Furetta, C.; Galaktionov, Yu.; Ganguli, S. N.; Garcia-Abia, P.; Gau, S. S.; Gentile, S.; Gerald, J.; Gheordanescu, N.; Giagu, S.; Goldfarb, S.; Goldstein, J.; Gong, Z. F.; Gougas, A.; Gratta, G.; Gruenewald, M. W.; Gupta, V. K.; Gurtu, A.; Gutay, L. J.; Hartmann, B.; Hasan, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hebbeker, T.; Hervé, A.; van Hoek, W. C.; Hofer, H.; Hoorani, H.; Hou, S. R.; Hu, G.; Innocente, V.; Janssen, H.; Jenkes, K.; Jin, B. N.; Jones, L. W.; de Jong, P.; Josa-Mutuberria, I.; Kasser, A.; Khan, R. A.; Kamrad, D.; Kamyshkov, Yu.; Kapustinsky, J. S.; Karyotakis, Y.; Kaur, M.; Kienzle-Focacci, M. N.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. K.; Kim, S. C.; Kim, Y. G.; Kinnison, W. W.; Kirkby, A.; Kirkby, D.; Kirkby, J.; Kiss, D.; Kittel, W.; Klimentov, A.; König, A. C.; Korolko, I.; Koutsenko, V.; Kraemer, R. W.; Krenz, W.; Kuijten, H.; Kunin, A.; de Guevara, P. Ladron; Landi, G.; Lapoint, C.; Lassila-Perini, K.; Laurikainen, P.; Lebeau, M.; Lebedev, A.; Lebrun, P.; Lecomte, P.; Lecoq, P.; Le Coultre, P.; Lee, J. S.; Lee, K. Y.; Leggett, C.; Le Goff, J. M.; Leiste, R.; Leonardi, E.; Levtchenko, P.; Li, C.; Lieb, E.; Lin, W. T.; Linde, F. L.; Lista, L.; Liu, Z. A.; Lohmann, W.; Longo, E.; Lu, W.; Lu, Y. S.; Lübelsmeyer, K.; Luci, C.; Luckey, D.; Luminari, L.; Lustermann, W.; Ma, W. G.; Maity, M.; Majumder, G.; Malgeri, L.; Malinin, A.; Maña, C.; Mangla, S.; Marchesini, P.; Marin, A.; Martin, J. P.; Marzano, F.; Massaro, G. G. G.; McNally, D.; Mele, S.; Merola, L.; Meschini, M.; Metzger, W. J.; von der Mey, M.; Mi, Y.; Mihul, A.; van Mil, A. J. W.; Mirabelli, G.; Mnich, J.; Molnar, P.; Monteleoni, B.; Moore, R.; Morganti, S.; Moulik, T.; Mount, R.; Müller, S.; Muheim, F.; Nagy, E.; Nahn, S.; Napolitano, M.; Nessi-Tedaldi, F.; Newman, H.; Niessen, T.; Nippe, A.; Nisati, A.; Nowak, H.; Opitz, H.; Organtini, G.; Ostonen, R.; Pandoulas, D.; Paoletti, S.; Paolucci, P.; Park, H. K.; Pascale, G.; Passaleva, G.; Patricelli, S.; Paul, T.; Pauluzzi, M.; Paus, C.; Pauss, F.; Peach, D.; Pei, Y. J.; Pensotti, S.; Perret-Gallix, D.; Petrak, S.; Pevsner, A.; Piccolo, D.; Pieri, M.; Pinto, J. C.; Piroué, P. A.; Pistolesi, E.; Plyaskin, V.; Pohl, M.; Pojidaev, V.; Postema, H.; Produit, N.; Prokofiev, D.; Rahal-Callot, G.; Rancoita, P. G.; Rattaggi, M.; Raven, G.; Razis, P.; Read, K.; Ren, D.; Rescigno, M.; Reucroft, S.; van Rhee, T.; Riemann, S.; Riemers, B. C.; Riles, K.; Rind, O.; Ro, S.; Robohm, A.; Rodin, J.; Rodriguez, F. J.; Roe, B. P.; Romero, L.; Rosier-Lees, S.; Rosselet, Ph.; van Rossum, W.; Roth, S.; Rubio, J. A.; Rykaczewski, H.; Salicio, J.; Sanchez, E.; Santocchia, A.; Sarakinos, M. E.; Sarkar, S.; Sassowsky, M.; Sauvage, G.; Schäfer, C.; Schegelsky, V.; Schmidt-Kaerst, S.; Schmitz, D.; Schmitz, P.; Schneegans, M.; Scholz, N.; Schopper, H.; Schotanus, D. J.; Schwenke, J.; Schwering, G.; Sciacca, C.; Sciarrino, D.; Sens, J. C.; Servoli, L.; Shevchenko, S.; Shivarov, N.; Shoutko, V.; Shukla, J.; Shumilov, E.; Shvorob, A.; Siedenburg, T.; Son, D.; Sopczak, A.; Soulimov, V.; Smith, B.; Spillantini, P.; Steuer, M.; Stickland, D. P.; Stone, H.; Stoyanov, B.; Straessner, A.; Strauch, K.; Sudhakar, K.; Sultanov, G.; Sun, L. Z.; Susinno, G. F.; Suter, H.; Swain, J. D.; Tang, X. W.; Tauscher, L.; Taylor, L.; Ting, Samuel C. C.; Ting, S. M.; Tonutti, M.; Tonwar, S. C.; Tóth, J.; Tully, C.; Tuchscherer, H.; Tung, K. L.; Uchida, Y.; Ulbricht, J.; Uwer, U.; Valente, E.; van de Walle, R. T.; Vesztergombi, G.; Vetlitsky, I.; Viertel, G.; Vivargent, M.; Völkert, R.; Vogel, H.; Vogt, H.; Vorobiev, I.; Vorobyov, A. A.; Vorvolakos, A.; Wadhwa, M.; Wallraff, W.; Wang, J. C.; Wang, X. L.; Wang, Z. M.; Weber, A.; Wittgenstein, F.; Wu, S. X.; Wynhoff, S.; Xu, J.; Xu, Z. Z.; Yang, B. Z.; Yang, C. G.; Yao, X. Y.; Ye, J. B.; Yeh, S. C.; You, J. M.; Zalite, An.; Zalite, Yu.; Zemp, P.; Zeng, Y.; Zhang, Z.; Zhang, Z. P.; Zhou, B.; Zhou, Y.; Zhu, G. Y.; Zhu, R. Y.; Zichichi, A.; Ziegler, F.

    1997-02-01

    Charged and neutral particle multiplicities of jets associated with identified semileptonic and hadronic b decays are studied. The observed differences between these jets are used to determine the inclusive properties of the weak charged hadronic current. The average charged particle multiplicity of the weak charged hadronic current in b decays is measured for the first time to be 2.69+/-0.07 (stat.)+/-0.14(syst.). This result is in good agreement with the JETSET hadronization model of the weak charged hadronic current if 40+/-17% of the produced mesons are light-flavored tensor (L=1) mesons. This level of tensor meson production is consistent with the measurement of the π0 multiplicity in the weak charged hadronic current in b decays.

  19. Study of the Weak Charged Hadronic Current in b Decays

    CERN Document Server

    Acciarri, M; Aguilar-Benítez, M; Ahlen, S P; Alpat, B; Alcaraz, J; Alemanni, G; Allaby, James V; Aloisio, A; Alverson, G; Alviggi, M G; Ambrosi, G; Anderhub, H; Andreev, V P; Angelescu, T; Anselmo, F; Antreasyan, D; Arefev, A; Azemoon, T; Aziz, T; Bagnaia, P; Baksay, L; Ball, R C; Banerjee, S; Banicz, K; Barillère, R; Barone, L; Bartalini, P; Baschirotto, A; Basile, M; Battiston, R; Bay, A; Becattini, F; Becker, U; Behner, F; Berdugo, J; Berges, P; Bertucci, B; Betev, B L; Bhattacharya, S; Biasini, M; Biland, A; Bilei, G M; Blaising, J J; Blyth, S C; Bobbink, Gerjan J; Böck, R K; Böhm, A; Borgia, B; Boucham, A; Bourilkov, D; Bourquin, Maurice; Boutigny, D; Branson, J G; Brigljevic, V; Brock, I C; Buffini, A; Buijs, A; Burger, J D; Burger, W J; Busenitz, J K; Buytenhuijs, A O; Cai, X D; Campanelli, M; Capell, M; Cara Romeo, G; Caria, M; Carlino, G; Cartacci, A M; Casaus, J; Castellini, G; Cavallari, F; Cavallo, N; Cecchi, C; Cerrada-Canales, M; Cesaroni, F; Chamizo-Llatas, M; Chan, A; Chang, Y H; Chaturvedi, U K; Chemarin, M; Chen, A; Chen, G; Chen, G M; Chen, H F; Chen, H S; Chen, M; Chiefari, G; Chien, C Y; Choi, M T; Cifarelli, Luisa; Cindolo, F; Civinini, C; Clare, I; Clare, R; Cohn, H O; Coignet, G; Colijn, A P; Colino, N; Commichau, V; Costantini, S; Cotorobai, F; de la Cruz, B; Csilling, Akos; Dai, T S; D'Alessandro, R; De Asmundis, R; De Boeck, H; Degré, A; Deiters, K; Denes, P; De Notaristefani, F; DiBitonto, Daryl; Diemoz, M; Van Dierendonck, D N; Di Lodovico, F; Dionisi, C; Dittmar, Michael; Dominguez, A; Doria, A; Dorne, I; Dova, M T; Drago, E; Duchesneau, D; Duinker, P; Durán, I; Dutta, S; Easo, S; Efremenko, Yu V; El-Mamouni, H; Engler, A; Eppling, F J; Erné, F C; Ernenwein, J P; Extermann, Pierre; Fabre, M; Faccini, R; Falciano, S; Favara, A; Fay, J; Fedin, O; Felcini, Marta; Fenyi, B; Ferguson, T; Fernández, D; Ferroni, F; Fesefeldt, H S; Fiandrini, E; Field, J H; Filthaut, Frank; Fisher, P H; Forconi, G; Fredj, L; Freudenreich, Klaus; Furetta, C; Galaktionov, Yu; Ganguli, S N; García-Abia, P; Gau, S S; Gentile, S; Gerald, J; Gheordanescu, N; Giagu, S; Goldfarb, S; Goldstein, J; Gong, Z F; Gougas, Andreas; Gratta, Giorgio; Grünewald, M W; Gupta, V K; Gurtu, A; Gutay, L J; Hartmann, B; Hasan, A; Hatzifotiadou, D; Hebbeker, T; Hervé, A; Van Hoek, W C; Hofer, H; Hoorani, H; Hou, S R; Hu, G; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janssen, H; Jenkes, K; Jin, B N; Jones, L W; de Jong, P; Josa-Mutuberria, I; Kasser, A; Khan, R A; Kamrad, D; Kamyshkov, Yu A; Kapustinsky, J S; Karyotakis, Yu; Kaur, M; Kienzle-Focacci, M N; Kim, D; Kim, J K; Kim, S C; Kim, Y G; Kinnison, W W; Kirkby, A; Kirkby, D; Kirkby, Jasper; Kiss, D; Kittel, E W; Klimentov, A; König, A C; Korolko, I; Koutsenko, V F; Krämer, R W; Krenz, W; Kuijten, H; Kunin, A; Ladrón de Guevara, P; Landi, G; Lapoint, C; Lassila-Perini, K M; Laurikainen, P; Lebeau, M; Lebedev, A; Lebrun, P; Lecomte, P; Lecoq, P; Le Coultre, P; Lee Jae Sik; Lee, K Y; Leggett, C; Le Goff, J M; Leiste, R; Leonardi, E; Levchenko, P M; Li Chuan; Lieb, E H; Lin, W T; Linde, Frank L; Lista, L; Liu, Z A; Lohmann, W; Longo, E; Lu, W; Lü, Y S; Lübelsmeyer, K; Luci, C; Luckey, D; Luminari, L; Lustermann, W; Ma Wen Gan; Maity, M; Majumder, G; Malgeri, L; Malinin, A; Maña, C; Mangla, S; Marchesini, P A; Marin, A; Martin, J P; Marzano, F; Massaro, G G G; McNally, D; Mele, S; Merola, L; Meschini, M; Metzger, W J; Von der Mey, M; Mi, Y; Mihul, A; Van Mil, A J W; Mirabelli, G; Mnich, J; Molnár, P; Monteleoni, B; Moore, R; Morganti, S; Moulik, T; Mount, R; Müller, S; Muheim, F; Nagy, E; Nahn, S; Napolitano, M; Nessi-Tedaldi, F; Newman, H; Nippe, A; Nisati, A; Nowak, H; Opitz, H; Organtini, G; Ostonen, R; Pandoulas, D; Paoletti, S; Paolucci, P; Park, H K; Pascale, G; Passaleva, G; Patricelli, S; Paul, T; Pauluzzi, M; Paus, C; Pauss, Felicitas; Peach, D; Pei, Y J; Pensotti, S; Perret-Gallix, D; Petrak, S; Pevsner, A; Piccolo, D; Pieri, M; Pinto, J C; Piroué, P A; Pistolesi, E; Plyaskin, V; Pohl, M; Pozhidaev, V; Postema, H; Produit, N; Prokofev, D; Prokofiev, D O; Rahal-Callot, G; Rancoita, P G; Rattaggi, M; Raven, G; Razis, P A; Read, K; Ren, D; Rescigno, M; Reucroft, S; Van Rhee, T; Riemann, S; Riemers, B C; Riles, K; Rind, O; Ro, S; Robohm, A; Rodin, J; Rodríguez-Calonge, F J; Roe, B P; Romero, L; Rosier-Lees, S; Rosselet, P; Van Rossum, W; Roth, S; Rubio, Juan Antonio; Rykaczewski, H; Salicio, J; Sánchez, E; Santocchia, A; Sarakinos, M E; Sarkar, S; Sassowsky, M; Sauvage, G; Schäfer, C; Shchegelskii, V; Schmidt-Kärst, S; Schmitz, D; Schmitz, P; Schneegans, M; Scholz, N; Schopper, Herwig Franz; Schotanus, D J; Schwenke, J; Schwering, G; Sciacca, C; Sciarrino, D; Sens, Johannes C; Servoli, L; Shevchenko, S; Shivarov, N; Shoutko, V; Shukla, J; Shumilov, E; Shvorob, A V; Siedenburg, T; Son, D; Sopczak, André; Soulimov, V; Smith, B; Spillantini, P; Steuer, M; Stickland, D P; Stone, H; Stoyanov, B; Strässner, A; Strauch, K; Sudhakar, K; Sultanov, G G; Sun, L Z; Susinno, G F; Suter, H; Swain, J D; Tang, X W; Tauscher, Ludwig; Taylor, L; Ting, Samuel C C; Ting, S M; Tonutti, M; Tonwar, S C; Tóth, J; Tully, C; Tuchscherer, H; Tung, K L; Uchida, Y; Ulbricht, J; Uwer, U; Valente, E; Van de Walle, R T; Vesztergombi, G; Vetlitskii, I; Viertel, Gert M; Vivargent, M; Völkert, R; Vogel, H; Vogt, H; Vorobev, I; Vorobyov, A A; Vorvolakos, A; Wadhwa, M; Wallraff, W; Wang, J C; Wang, X L; Wang, Z M; Weber, A; Wittgenstein, F; Wu, S X; Wynhoff, S; Xu, J; Xu, Z Z; Yang, B Z; Yang, C G; Yao, X Y; Ye, J B; Yeh, S C; You, J M; Zalite, A; Zalite, Yu; Zemp, P; Zeng, Y; Zhang, Z; Zhang, Z P; Zhou, B; Zhou, Y; Zhu, G Y; Zhu, R Y; Zichichi, Antonino; Ziegler, F

    1997-01-01

    Charged and neutral particle multiplicities of jets associated with identified semileptonic and hadronic b decays are studied. The observed differences between these jets are used to determine the inclusive properties of the weak charged hadronic current. The average charged particle multiplicity of the weak charged hadronic current in b decays is measured for the first time to be 2.69$\\pm$0.07(stat.)$\\pm$0.14(syst.). This result is in good agreement with the JETSET hadronization model of the weak charged hadronic current if 40$\\pm$17\\% of the produced mesons are light--flavored tensor (L=1) mesons. This level of tensor meson production is consistent with the measurement of the $\\pi^0$ multiplicity in the weak charged hadronic current in b decays. \\end{abstract}

  20. Production of satellite-derived aerosol climate data records: current status of the ESA Aerosol_cci project

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Leeuw, Gerrit; Holzer-Popp, Thomas; Pinnock, Simon

    2015-04-01

    cloud screening in the various algorithms. Other efforts will focus on surface treatment and possible improvement of aerosol models used in the retrieval. Furthermore, the validation results, showing differences between regions, will further be analyzed in an attempt to better understand the working of different algorithms. The results, if successful, will be implemented in the various algorithms. A yearly re-processing is planned to evaluate the effect of different changes and to monitor further improvement. Each re-processing will be done on the full 17-year global ATSR-2/AATSR data set. The work on stratospheric aerosols and on absorbing aerosols is continued and a new element in Phase 2 is the inclusion of dust aerosols retrieved from thermal infrared IASI observations over a limited area. After the launch of Sentinel-3, planned for the autumn of 2015, the aerosol retrieval using SLSTR and OLCI data are planned to be included in the Aerosol_cci project. PARASOL retrieved data over a limited area will be used as a 'standard' for comparison with other sensors. A new aspect of Phase 2 are the use cases where representatives of several relevant users communities, climate, stratospheric aerosol and aerosol-cloud interaction, will evaluate the use of Aerosol_cci products in their own work as regards the usefulness and added value. This will be done in close cooperation with the data providers to further improve the products and meet users' needs, both as regards data quality and presentation. The latter also requires data availability and easy accessibility through good data management which is another important aspect in Aerosol_cci. An overview will be presented of the current status of the various aspects of the Aerosol_cci project.

  1. Critical current studies of a HTS rectangular coil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhong, Z. [Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge (United Kingdom); Chudy, M., E-mail: Michal.chudy@stuba.sk [Graduate School of Technology Management, University of Pretoria (South Africa); Institute of Power and Applied Electrical Engineering, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava (Slovakia); Ruiz, H.S. [Department of Engineering, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom); Zhang, X.; Coombs, T. [Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2017-05-15

    Highlights: • Unique square pancake coil was manufactured. • Measurements in relatively high magnetic field were performed. • Different sections of the coil were characterized. • Parts of the coil which are limiting critical current were identified. - Abstract: Nowadays, superconducting high field magnets are used in numerous applications due to their superior properties. High temperature superconductors (HTS) are usually used for production of circular pancake or racetrack coils. However different geometries of HTS coils might be required for some specific applications. In this study, the HTS coil wound on a rectangular frame was fully characterized in homogeneous DC background field. The study contains measurements of critical current angular dependencies. The critical current of the entire coil and two selected strands under different magnitudes and orientations of external magnetic fields are measured. The critical regions of the coil in different angular regimes are determined. This study brings better understanding of the in- field performance of HTS coils wound on frames with right-angles.

  2. A review of decadal/interdecadal climate variation studies in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chongyin; He, Jinhai; Zhu, Jinhong

    2004-06-01

    Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important element in the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and has received much attention in the world. Many studies in relation to interdecadal variation have also been completed by Chinese scientists in recent years. In this paper, an introduction in outline for interdecadal climate variation research in China is presented. The content includes the features of interdecadal climate variability in China, global warming and interdecadal temperature variability, the NAO (the North Atlantic Oscillation)/NPO (the North Pacific Oscillation) and interdecadal climate variation in China, the interdecadal variation of the East Asian monsoon, the interdecadal mode of SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) in the North Pacific and its climate impact, and abrupt change feature of the climate.

  3. A Review of Decadal/Interdecadal Climate Variation Studies in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李崇银; 何金海; 朱锦红

    2004-01-01

    Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important element in the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and has received much attention in the world. Many studies in relation to interdecadal variation have also been completed by Chinese scientists in recent years. In this paper, an introduction in outline for interdecadal climate variation research in China is presented. The content includes the features of interdecadal climate variability in China, global warming and interdecadal temperature variability,the NAO (the North Atlantic Oscillation)/NPO (the North Pacific Oscillation) and interdecadal climate variation in China, the interdecadal variation of the East Asian monsoon, the interdecadal mode of SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) in the North Pacific and its climate impact, and abrupt change feature of the climate.

  4. Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Rocha, Adrian; Calvin, Katherine V.; Holmes, Bruce; Wang, Chuankuan; Goulden, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    How will regional growth and mortality change with even relatively small climate shifts, even independent of catastrophic disturbances? This question is particularly acute for the North American boreal forest, which is carbon-dense and subject The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean DBH increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly from 41.3 to 37.5 m2 ha-1. Tree mortality averaged 1.4±0.6% yr-1, with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from 2001, 2004, and 2012 sampling showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. There have been at least one, and probably two, significant recruitment episodes since stand initiation, and we infer that past climate extremes led to significant NOBS mortality still visible in the current forest structure. These results imply that a combination of successional and demographic processes, along with mortality driven by abiotic factors, continue to affect the stand, with significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS and the sustainable management of regional forests.

  5. Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Kevin R.; Harrington, Constance A.; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Petter J.; St. Clair, Bradley

    2016-01-01

    Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures (“forcing”) typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures (“chilling”) while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, towards lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm

  6. Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Kevin R; Harrington, Constance A; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Peter J; St Clair, J Bradley

    2016-11-01

    Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures ('forcing') typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures ('chilling') while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, toward lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm edges of

  7. Adapting forest to climate change in drylands: the Portuguese case-study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branquinho, Cristina; Príncipe, Adriana; Nunes, Alice; Kobel, Melanie; Soares, Cristina; Vizinho, André; Serrano, Helena Cristina; Pinho, Pedro

    2017-04-01

    The recent expansion of the semiarid climate to all the region of the south of Portugal and the growing impact of climate change demands local adaptation. The growth of the native forest represents a strategy at the ecosystem level to adapt to climate change since it increases resilience and increases also de delivery of ecosystem services such as the increment of organic matter in the soil, carbon and nitrogen, biodiversity, water infiltration, etc. Moreover, decreases susceptibility to desertification. For that reason, large areas have been reforested in the south of Portugal with the native species holm oak and cork oak but with a low rate of effectiveness. Our goal in this work is to show how the cost-benefit relation of the actions intended to expand the forest of the Portuguese semiarid can be lowered by taking into account the microclimatic conditions and high spatial resolution management. The potential of forest regeneration was modelled at the local and regional level in the semiarid area using information concerning the Potential Solar Radiation. This model gives us the rate of native forest regeneration after a disturbance with high spatial resolution. Based on this model the territory was classified in: i) easy regeneration areas; ii) areas with the need of assisted reforestation, using methods that increase water and soil conservation; iii) areas of difficult reforestation because of the costs. Additionally, a summary of the success of reforestations was made in the historical semiarid since the 60s based on the evaluation of a series of case studies, where we quantified the ecosystem services currently delivered by the reforested ecosystems. We will discuss and propose a strategy for forests to adapt to climate change scenario in dryland Portugal. Acknowledgement: Programa Adapt: financed by EEA Grants and Fundo Português de Carbono and by FCT-MEC project PTDC/AAG-GLO/0045/2014.

  8. Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, Ken; Wood, Lowell

    2008-11-13

    We perform numerical simulations of the atmosphere, sea ice and upper ocean to examine possible effects of diminishing incoming solar radiation, insolation, on the climate system. We simulate both global and Arctic climate engineering in idealized scenarios in which insolation is diminished above the top of the atmosphere. We consider the Arctic scenarios because climate change is manifesting most strongly there. Our results indicate that, while such simple insolation modulation is unlikely to perfectly reverse the effects of greenhouse gas warming, over a broad range of measures considering both temperature and water, an engineered high CO2 climate can be made much more similar to the low CO2 climate than would be a high CO2 climate in the absence of such engineering. At high latitudes, there is less sunlight deflected per unit albedo change but climate system feedbacks operate more powerfully there. These two effects largely cancel each other, making the global mean temperature response per unit top-of-atmosphere albedo change relatively insensitive to latitude. Implementing insolation modulation appears to be feasible.

  9. Climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinzig, Ann P.

    2015-03-01

    This paper is intended as a brief introduction to climate adaptation in a conference devoted otherwise to the physics of sustainable energy. Whereas mitigation involves measures to reduce the probability of a potential event, such as climate change, adaptation refers to actions that lessen the impact of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation differ in other ways as well. Adaptation does not necessarily have to be implemented immediately to be effective; it only needs to be in place before the threat arrives. Also, adaptation does not necessarily require global, coordinated action; many effective adaptation actions can be local. Some urban communities, because of land-use change and the urban heat-island effect, currently face changes similar to some expected under climate change, such as changes in water availability, heat-related morbidity, or changes in disease patterns. Concern over those impacts might motivate the implementation of measures that would also help in climate adaptation, despite skepticism among some policy makers about anthropogenic global warming. Studies of ancient civilizations in the southwestern US lends some insight into factors that may or may not be important to successful adaptation.

  10. Progress in rapid climate changes and their modeling study in millennial and centennial scales

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Rapid climate change at millennial and centennial scales is one of the most important aspects in paleoclimate study.It has been found that rapid climate change at millennial and centennial scales is a global phenomenon during both the glacial age and the Holocene with amplitudes typical of geological or astronomical time-scales.Simulations of glacial and Holocene climate changes have demonstrated the response of the climate system to the changes of earth orbital parameter and the importance of variations in feedbacks of ocean,vegetation,icecap and greenhouse gases.Modeling experiments suggest that the Atlantic thermohaline circulation was sensitive to the fresh water input into the North Atlantic and was closely related to the rapid climate changes during the last glacial age and the Holocene.Adopting the Earth-system models of inter mediate complexity (EMICs),CLIMBER-2,the response of East Asian climate change to Dansgaard/Oeschger and Heinrich events during the typical last glacial period (60 ka B.P.-20 ka B.P.) and impacts of ice on the Tibetan plateau on Holocene climate change were stimulated,studied and revealed.Further progress of paleoclimate modeling depends on developing finer-grid models and reconstructing more reliable boundary conditions.More attention should be paid on the study of mechanisms of abrupt climatic changes as well as regional climate changes in the background of global climate change.

  11. Climatic variability of transport in the upper layer of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current from hydrological and satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artamonov, Ju. V.; Fedirko, A. V.; Skripaleva, E. A.

    2016-12-01

    Based on the satellite altimetry dataset of sea level anomalies, the climatic hydrological database World Ocean Atlas-2009, ocean reanalysis ECMWF ORA-S3, and wind velocity components from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the interannual variability of Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport in the ocean upper layer is investigated for the period 1959-2008, and estimations of correlative connections between ACC transport and wind velocity components are performed. It has been revealed that the maximum (by absolute value) linear trends of ACC transport over the last 50 years are observed in the date-line region, in the Western and Eastern Atlantic and the western part of the Indian Ocean. The greatest increase in wind velocity for this period for the zonal component is observed in Drake Passage, at Greenwich meridian, in the Indian Ocean near 90° E, and in the date-line region; for the meridional component, it is in the Western and Eastern Pacific, in Drake Passage, and to the south of Africa. It has been shown that the basic energy-carrying frequencies of interannual variability of ACC transport and wind velocity components, as well as their correlative connections, correspond to the periods of basic large-scale modes of atmospheric circulation: multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations, Antarctic Circumpolar Wave, Southern Annual Mode, and Southern Oscillation. A significant influence of the wind field on the interannual variability of ACC transport is observed in the Western Pacific (140° E-160° W) and Eastern Pacific; Drake Passage and Western Atlantic (90°-30° W); in the Eastern Atlantic and Western Indian Ocean (10°-70° E). It has been shown in the Pacific Ocean that the ACC transport responds to changes of the meridional wind more promptly than to changes of the zonal wind.

  12. Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and

  13. Study on the demand of climate finance for developing countries based on submitted INDC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Zhang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The 21st Conference of Party (COP21 held in Paris at the end of 2015 has opened a new era for the joint response dealing with climate change globally, and built up a new mode of global climate governance, that is, “all Parties submit INDC – global stocktake – enhance effort of actions – all Parties resubmit INDC – finally achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention.” With 160 INDC reports (covering 188 Parties that the UNFCCC Secretariat has currently received as research objects, this study classifies the mitigation targets of all Parties, and focuses on the systematic analysis of the financial demand, mitigation cost and priority investment areas for developing countries. The results are as follows: among 160 INDC reports, 122 reports clearly include the finance content; 64 reports propose specific amount of financial demand for the implementation of INDC; 31 reports pre-estimate domestic amount and financial demand for greenhouse gas mitigation in 2030, based on which they have calculated that the average mitigation cost for developing countries in 2030 would have reached up to US$22.3 per ton CO2; 28 Parties reclassify the financial demand for mitigation and adaptation areas, and reach the conclusion that the overall financial demand ratio for mitigation and adaptation is 1.4. Should the current mitigation commitments of the Parties from developed countries be used as benchmark, then in 2030 the total amount of financial demand for developing countries in response to climate change would have reached up to US$474 billion.

  14. Current research projects on traffic conflicts technique studies.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hondel, M. van den & and Kraay, J.H.

    1979-01-01

    A review of current research concerning the development, evaluation and use of the traffic conflicts technique is presented. The 32 studies, selected from the IRRD data base, are listed alphabetically by names of countries and under countries by names of research organizations. The IRRD descriptions

  15. Subminiature eddy current transducers for studying boride coatings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dmitriev, S. F.; Ishkov, A. V.; Malikov, V. N.; Sagalakov, A. M.

    2016-07-01

    Strengthening of parts and units of machines, increased reliability and longer service life is an important task of modern mechanical engineering. The main objects of study in the work were selected steel 65G and 50HGA, wear-resistant boride coatings ternary system Fe-B-Fe n B which were investigated by scanning electron microscopy and eddy-current nondestructive methods.

  16. A study of eddy current measurement (1986-1987)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramachandran, R.S.; Armstrong, K.P.

    1989-06-22

    A study was conducted in 1986 to evaluate a modified eddy current system for measuring copper thickness on Kapton. Results showed a measurement error of 0.42 {mu}in. for a thickness range of 165 to 170 {mu}in. and a measurement variability of 3.2 {mu}in.

  17. Cartography and Population Geography as Current Events: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comenetz, Joshua

    2003-01-01

    The Sanders housing lawsuit in Pennsylvania provides a case study of how to incorporate current events into the teaching of cartography or population geography at the high school or college level. Settlement of the Sanders case resulted in the release of information about the segregation of public housing by race in the Pittsburgh area. The issues…

  18. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human

  19. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina Morrow

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective: The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design: The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1 the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2 the context within which the policy was developed; 3 the relevant processes; and 4 the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results: The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions: The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should

  20. Refining Climate Change Projections for Organisms with Low Dispersal Abilities: A Case Study of the Caspian Whip Snake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahlean, Tiberiu C.; Gherghel, Iulian; Papeş, Monica; Strugariu, Alexandru; Zamfirescu, Ştefan R.

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming is one of the most important threats to biodiversity. Ectothermic organisms such as amphibians and reptiles are especially vulnerable as climatic conditions affect them directly. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are increasingly popular in ecological studies, but several drawbacks exist, including the limited ability to account for the dispersal potential of the species. In this study, we use ENMs to explore the impact of global climate change on the Caspian whip snake (Dolichophis caspius) as model for organisms with low dispersal abilities and to quantify dispersal to novel areas using GIS techniques. Models generated using Maxent 3.3.3 k and GARP for current distribution were projected on future climatic scenarios. A cost-distance analysis was run in ArcGIS 10 using geomorphological features, ecological conditions, and human footprint as “costs” to dispersal of the species to obtain a Maximum Dispersal Range (MDR) estimate. All models developed were statistically significant (PMaxent predicted a doubling of suitable climatic area, while GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. Both models agreed on an expansion of suitable area northwards, with minor decreases at the southern distribution limit. The MDR area calculated using the Maxent model represented a third of the total area of the projected model. The MDR based on GARP models recovered only about 20% of the total area of the projected model. Thus, incorporating measures of species’ dispersal abilities greatly reduced estimated area of potential future distributions. PMID:24670422

  1. The relationship between team climate and interprofessional collaboration: Preliminary results of a mixed methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agreli, Heloise F; Peduzzi, Marina; Bailey, Christopher

    2017-03-01

    Relational and organisational factors are key elements of interprofessional collaboration (IPC) and team climate. Few studies have explored the relationship between IPC and team climate. This article presents a study that aimed to explore IPC in primary healthcare teams and understand how the assessment of team climate may provide insights into IPC. A mixed methods study design was adopted. In Stage 1 of the study, team climate was assessed using the Team Climate Inventory with 159 professionals in 18 interprofessional teams based in São Paulo, Brazil. In Stage 2, data were collected through in-depth interviews with a sample of team members who participated in the first stage of the study. Results from Stage 1 provided an overview of factors relevant to teamwork, which in turn informed our exploration of the relationship between team climate and IPC. Preliminary findings from Stage 2 indicated that teams with a more positive team climate (in particular, greater participative safety) also reported more effective communication and mutual support. In conclusion, team climate provided insights into IPC, especially regarding aspects of communication and interaction in teams. Further research will provide a better understanding of differences and areas of overlap between team climate and IPC. It will potentially contribute for an innovative theoretical approach to explore interprofessional work in primary care settings.

  2. Testing the hypothesis on cognitive evolution of modern humans' learning ability: current status of past-climatic approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoneda, Minoru; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Kawahata, Hodaka; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Oguchi, Takashi

    2014-05-01

    The impact of climate change on human evolution is important and debating topic for many years. Since 2010, we have involved in a general joint project entitled "Replacement of Neanderthal by Modern Humans: Testing Evolutional Models of Learning", which based on a theoretical prediction that the cognitive ability related to individual and social learning divide fates of ancient humans in very unstable Late Pleistocene climate. This model predicts that the human populations which experienced a series of environmental changes would have higher rate of individual learners, while detailed reconstructions of global climate change have reported fluent and drastic change based on ice cores and stalagmites. However, we want to understand the difference between anatomically modern human which survived and the other archaic extinct humans including European Neanderthals and Asian Denisovans. For this purpose the global synchronized change is not useful for understanding but the regional difference in the amplitude and impact of climate change is the information required. Hence, we invited a geophysicist busing Global Circulation Model to reconstruct the climatic distribution and temporal change in a continental scale. At the same time, some geochemists and geographers construct a database of local climate changes recorded in different proxies. At last, archaeologists and anthropologists tried to interpret the emergence and disappearance of human species in Europe and Asia on the reconstructed past climate maps using some tools, such as Eco-cultural niche model. Our project will show the regional difference in climate change and related archaeological events and its impact on the evolution of learning ability of modern humans.

  3. Differential Thermostimulated Discharge Current Method for Studying Electrets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mekishev, G. A.; Yovcheva, T. A.; Viraneva, A. P.; Gencheva, E. A.

    2010-01-01

    The thermostimulated discharge current method (TSDC) is widely used for the study of charge storage mechanisms in electrets. A new discharged technique, called differential, which consists in discharging a charged sample through an otherwise identical but uncharged one, has been proposed by J.-P. Reboul and A. Toureille. In the present paper a new version of the differential thermostimulated discharge current method is advanced. In contrast to the differential technique described earlier, the measuring cell allows to realize typical differential technique. In this case the measuring system records the difference of the thermostimulated currents of two samples which have been preliminary charged (or thermally treated) under the same or different conditions. Samples of 0.85 mm thick polymethylmethacrylate are used to demonstrate an operation of the developed differential TSDC method.

  4. Study on Fault Current of DFIG during Slight Fault Condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangping Kong

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to ensure the safety of DFIG when severe fault happens, crowbar protection is adopted. But during slight fault condition, the crowbar protection will not trip, and the DFIG is still excited by AC-DC-AC converter. In this condition, operation characteristics of the converter have large influence on the fault current characteristics of DFIG. By theoretical analysis and digital simulation, the fault current characteristics of DFIG during slight voltage dips are studied. And the influence of controller parameters of converter on the fault current characteristics is analyzed emphatically. It builds a basis for the construction of relay protection which is suitable for the power gird with accession of DFIG.

  5. Climate change impact on shallow groundwater conditions in Hungary: Conclusions from a regional modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra

    2016-04-01

    A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time

  6. Study of the influence of solar variability on a regional (Indian) climate: 1901-2007

    CERN Document Server

    Aslam, O P M

    2014-01-01

    We use Indian temperature data of more than 100 years to study the influence of solar activity on climate. We study the Sun-climate relationship by averaging solar and climate data at various time scales; decadal, solar activity and solar magnetic cycles. We also consider the minimum and maximum values of sunspot number (SSN) during each solar cycle. This parameter SSN is correlated better with Indian temperature when these data are averaged over solar magnetic polarity epochs (SSN maximum to maximum). Our results indicate that the solar variability may still be contributing to ongoing climate change and suggest for more investigations.

  7. A Study on the Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Pinus tabulaeformis in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    A special interpolation program GREEN has been developed to determine the climatic parameters for the distribution region of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) based on the researches on the distribution of the tree species. The central region, which is the most suitable distribution region, and potential distribution region of the species under current climatic conditions were mapped using a Geographic Information System IDRISI. According to the averaged predictions by 5 GCMs for 2030, a projecti...

  8. Climate Change Preparedness: A Knowledge and Attitudes Study in Southern Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Edema Ojomo; Mark Elliott; Urooj Amjad; Jamie Bartram

    2015-01-01

    Global climate change is projected to adversely impact freshwater resources, and in many settings these impacts are already apparent. In Nigeria, these impacts can be especially severe because of limited adaptive capacity. Understanding the knowledge and attitudes of current and future Nigerian decision-makers is important to preparing Nigeria for climate change impacts. This paper examines the knowledge and attitudes of university students and government officials about the causes, effects, ...

  9. Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

    2016-01-01

    The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

  10. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seljom, Pernille, E-mail: Pernille.Seljom@ife.no [Department of Energy Systems, Institute of Energy Technology (IFE), PO Box 40, NO-2027 Kjeller (Norway); Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun [Department of Energy Systems, Institute of Energy Technology (IFE), PO Box 40, NO-2027 Kjeller (Norway); Haugen, Jan Erik [Norwegian Meteorological Institute, PO Box 43 Blindern, NO-0313 Oslo (Norway); Meir, Michaela; Rekstad, John [Department of Physics, University of Oslo (UiO), PO Box 1072 Blindern, NO-0316 Oslo (Norway); Jarlset, Thore [Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), PO Box 5091 Majorstua, NO-0301 Oslo (Norway)

    2011-11-15

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: > Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. > An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. > Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. > Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  11. Climate Change Impact Chains in Coastal Areas (ICCA): Final study report

    OpenAIRE

    Pramova, Emilia; Chazarin, Florie; Locatelli, Bruno; Hoppe, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The studyClimate Change Impact Chains in Coastal Areas”, produced by the Center for International Forestry Research, CIFOR, was commissioned by the Inventory of Methods for Adaptation to Climate Change (IMACC) project, a global project by the Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, and funded through the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU). The project aims at user-driven a...

  12. Study on the Influence of Abrupt Climate Variation on the Vegetation Based on NDVI

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The research aimed to study the influence of abrupt climate variation on the vegetation based on NDVI. [Method] Based on NDVI and climate data in China during 1982-2000, by using Mann-kendall (MK) abrupt change detection method, the abrupt variations of climate and NDVI were detected. Then, the relationship between two kinds of abrupt variations was discussed. [Result] The large-area abrupt variations of monthly average temperature and rainfall happened in 1983, and the occurrence range in 1999 ...

  13. Microbial Contamination Detection in Water Resources: Interest of Current Optical Methods, Trends and Needs in the Context of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aude-Valérie Jung

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Microbial pollution in aquatic environments is one of the crucial issues with regard to the sanitary state of water bodies used for drinking water supply, recreational activities and harvesting seafood due to a potential contamination by pathogenic bacteria, protozoa or viruses. To address this risk, microbial contamination monitoring is usually assessed by turbidity measurements performed at drinking water plants. Some recent studies have shown significant correlations of microbial contamination with the risk of endemic gastroenteresis. However the relevance of turbidimetry may be limited since the presence of colloids in water creates interferences with the nephelometric response. Thus there is a need for a more relevant, simple and fast indicator for microbial contamination detection in water, especially in the perspective of climate change with the increase of heavy rainfall events. This review focuses on the one hand on sources, fate and behavior of microorganisms in water and factors influencing pathogens’ presence, transportation and mobilization, and on the second hand, on the existing optical methods used for monitoring microbiological risks. Finally, this paper proposes new ways of research.

  14. Simulated impacts of climate change on current farming locations of striped catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus; Sauvage) in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Anh L; Dang, Vinh H; Bosma, Roel H; Verreth, Johan A J; Leemans, Rik; De Silva, Sena S

    2014-12-01

    In Vietnam, culturing striped catfish makes an important contribution to the Mekong Delta's economy. Water level rise during rainy season and salt intrusion during dry season affect the water exchange and quality for this culture. Sea level rise as a consequence of climate change will worsen these influences. In this study, water level rise and salt water intrusion for three sea level rise (SLR) scenarios (i.e., +30, +50, and +75 cm) were simulated. The results showed that at SLR +50, the 3-m-flood level would spread downstream and threaten farms located in AnGiang, DongThap and CanTho provinces. Rising salinity levels for SLR +75 would reduce the window appropriate for the culture in SocTrang and BenTre provinces, and in TienGiang's coastal districts. Next to increasing dikes to reduce the impacts, the most tenable and least disruptive option to the farming community would be to shift to a salinity tolerant strain of catfish.

  15. Microbial contamination detection in water resources: interest of current optical methods, trends and needs in the context of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Aude-Valérie; Le Cann, Pierre; Roig, Benoit; Thomas, Olivier; Baurès, Estelle; Thomas, Marie-Florence

    2014-04-17

    Microbial pollution in aquatic environments is one of the crucial issues with regard to the sanitary state of water bodies used for drinking water supply, recreational activities and harvesting seafood due to a potential contamination by pathogenic bacteria, protozoa or viruses. To address this risk, microbial contamination monitoring is usually assessed by turbidity measurements performed at drinking water plants. Some recent studies have shown significant correlations of microbial contamination with the risk of endemic gastroenteresis. However the relevance of turbidimetry may be limited since the presence of colloids in water creates interferences with the nephelometric response. Thus there is a need for a more relevant, simple and fast indicator for microbial contamination detection in water, especially in the perspective of climate change with the increase of heavy rainfall events. This review focuses on the one hand on sources, fate and behavior of microorganisms in water and factors influencing pathogens' presence, transportation and mobilization, and on the second hand, on the existing optical methods used for monitoring microbiological risks. Finally, this paper proposes new ways of research.

  16. Northward migration under a changing climate: a case study of blackgum (Nyssa Sylvatica)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johanna Desprez; Basil V. Iannone III; Peilin Yang; Christopher M. Oswalt; Songlin Fei

    2014-01-01

    Species are predicted to shift their distribution ranges in response to climate change. Region-wide, empirically-based studies, however, are still limited to support these predictions. We used a model tree species, blackgum (Nyssa sylvatica), to study climate-induced range shift. Data collected from two separate sampling periods (1980s and 2007) by the USDA’s Forestry...

  17. Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Makowski, D.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Bassu, S.; Durand, J.L.; Martre, P.; Adam, M.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Baron, C.; Basso, B.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Boogaard, H.; Boote, K.J.; Brisson, N.; Cammarano, D.; Challinor, A.J.; Conijn, J.G.; Corbeels, M.; Deryng, D.; Sanctis, De G.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grassini, P.; Hatfield, J.L.; Heng, L.; Hoek, S.B.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, C.; Jongschaap, R.E.E.; Jones, J.W.; Kemanian, R.A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kim, S.H.; Lizaso, J.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.J.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Pravia, M.V.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Sau, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Teixeira, E.; Thorburn, P.; Timlin, D.; Travasso, M.; Roetter, R.P.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2015-01-01

    Many simulation studies have been carried out to predict the effect of climate change on crop yield. Typically, in such study, one or several crop models are used to simulate series of crop yield values for different climate scenarios corresponding to different hypotheses of temperature, CO2

  18. Experimental Study on Current Decay Characteristics of Persistent Current HTS Magnet by Alternating Magnetic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Young Gun; Lee, Chang Young; Hwang, Young Jin; Lee, Woo Seung; Lee, Jiho; Jo, Hyun Chul; Chung, Yoon Do; Ko, Tae Kuk

    This paper deals with a current decay characteristics of a high temperature superconducting (HTS) magnet operated in persistent current mode (PCM). In superconducting synchronous machine applications such as linear synchronous motor (LSM), the superconducting coil is designed to operate in the PCM to obtain steady magnetic field with DC transport current. This superconducting magnet operates on a direct current, but it can be exposed to alternating magnetic field due to the armature winding. When the magnet is subjected to an external time-varying magnetic field, it is possible to result in a decay of the current in PCM system due to AC loss. In this research, a PCM system with armature coil which generates time-varying magnetic field was fabricated to verify current decay characteristics by external alternating magnetic field. The current decay rate was measured by using a hall sensor as functions of amplitude and frequency of armature coil.

  19. Multi crop model climate risk country-level management design: case study on the Tanzanian maize production system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavez, E.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate projections indicate that a very serious consequence of post-industrial anthropogenic global warming is the likelihood of the greater frequency and intensity of extreme hydrometeorological events such as heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods. The design of national and international policies targeted at building more resilient and environmentally sustainable food systems needs to rely on access to robust and reliable data which is largely absent. In this context, the improvement of the modelling of current and future agricultural production losses using the unifying language of risk is paramount. In this study, we use a methodology that allows the integration of the current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, agro-environment, crops, and the economy to determine short to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different environmental, climate, and adaptation scenarios. This methodology is applied to Tanzania to assess optimum risk reduction and maize production increase paths in different climate scenarios. The simulations carried out use inputs from three different crop models (DSSAT, APSIM, WRSI) run in different technological scenarios and thus allowing to estimate crop model-driven risk exposure estimation bias. The results obtained also allow distinguishing different region-specific optimum climate risk reduction policies subject to historical as well as RCP2.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The region-specific risk profiles obtained provide a simple framework to determine cost-effective risk management policies for Tanzania and allow to optimally combine investments in risk reduction and risk transfer.

  20. What and How Are We Evaluating? Meta-Evaluation Study of the NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) Portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, A. M.; Barnes, M. H.; Chambers, L. H.; Pippin, M. R.

    2013-12-01

    As part of NASA's Minority University Research and Education Program (MUREP), the NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) project at Langley Research Center has funded 71 climate education initiatives since 2008. The funded initiatives span across the nation and contribute to the development of a climate-literate public and the preparation of a climate-related STEM workforce through research experiences, professional development opportunities, development of data access and modeling tools, and educational opportunities in both K-12 and higher education. Each of the funded projects proposes and carries out its own evaluation plan, in collaboration with external or internal evaluation experts. Using this portfolio as an exemplar case, NICE has undertaken a systematic meta-evaluation of these plans, focused primarily on evaluation questions, approaches, and methods. This meta-evaluation study seeks to understand the range of evaluations represented in the NICE portfolio, including descriptive information (what evaluations, questions, designs, approaches, and methods are applied?) and questions of value (do these evaluations meet the needs of projects and their staff, and of NASA/NICE?). In the current climate, as federal funders of climate change and STEM education projects seek to better understand and incorporate evaluation into their decisions, evaluators and project leaders are also seeking to build robust understanding of program effectiveness. Meta-evaluations like this provide some baseline understanding of the current status quo and the kinds of evaluations carried out within such funding portfolios. These explorations are needed to understand the common ground between evaluative best practices, limited resources, and agencies' desires, capacity, and requirements. When NASA asks for evaluation of funded projects, what happens? Which questions are asked and answered, using which tools? To what extent do the evaluations meet the needs of projects and

  1. A Study of Low Cloud Climate Feedbacks Using a Generalized Higher-Order Closure Subgrid Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firl, Grant J.

    , THOR produces results that are generally within the range of LES results, indicating that the single-column THOR is able to reproduce the gross characteristics of boundary layer clouds nearly as well as three-dimensional LES. Sensitivity to vertical grid spacing, diagnostic/prognostic third- order moments, choice of turbulence length scale entrainment process, and whether or not PDF sampling is used to drive the microphysics and radiation schemes is assessed for all test cases. Simulation of the cumulus regime was degraded when vertical grid spacing exceeded 200 m, when more third-order moments were predicted, when higher parcel entrainment rates were assumed, and when PDF sampling for the microphysics scheme was omitted. Simulation of stratocumulus was degraded with grid spacing larger than 100 m, when PDF sampling for microphysics was omitted, and when PDF sampling for radiation was included. Lastly, THOR is used to study low cloud climate feedbacks in the northeastern Pacific Ocean in the context of the CGILS project. Initial conditions and forcings are supplied at 13 points along the GPCI cross-section that spans from the ITCZ northeast to the coast of California transecting regions of shallow cumuli and stratocumuli, for both the current climate and a climate with a +2K SST perturbation. A change in net cloud radiative forcing of 0-8 W/m-2 was simulated along the cross-section for the perturbed climate, representing neutral to weak positive feedback. The responsible mechanism appeared to be increased boundary layer entrainment and stratocumulus decoupling leading to reduced maximum cloud cover in the cumulus regime and reduced liquid water path in the stratocumulus regime.

  2. A long-term and reproducible passive microwave sea ice concentration data record for climate studies and monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Peng

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A long-term, consistent, and reproducible satellite-based passive microwave sea ice concentration climate data record (CDR is available for climate studies, monitoring, and model validation with an initial operation capability (IOC. The daily and monthly sea ice concentration data are on the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC polar stereographic grid with nominal 25 × 25 km grid cells in both the Southern and Northern Hemisphere Polar Regions from 9 July 1987 to 31 December 2007 with an update through 2011 underway. The data files are available in the NetCDF data format at http://nsidc.org/data/g02202.html and archived by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC under the satellite climate data record program (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/operationalcdrs.html. The description and basic characteristics of the NOAA/NSIDC passive microwave sea ice concentration CDR are presented here. The CDR provides similar spatial and temporal variability as the heritage products to the user communities with the additional documentation, traceability, and reproducibility that meet current standards and guidelines for climate data records. The dataset along with detailed data processing steps and error source information can be found at: doi:10.7265/N5B56GN3.

  3. Impact of Future Climate Change on Regional Crop Water Requirement—A Case Study of Hetao Irrigation District, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianwa Zhou

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Water shortage is a limiting factor for agricultural production in China, and climate change will affect agricultural water use. Studying the effects of climate change on crop irrigation requirement (CIR would help to tackle climate change, from both food security and sustainable water resource use perspectives. This paper applied SDSM (Statistical DownScaling Model to simulate future meteorological parameters in the Hetao irrigation district (HID in the time periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, and used the Penman–Monteith equation to calculate reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0, which was further used to calculate crop evapotranspiration (ETc and crop water requirement (CWR. CWR and predicted future precipitation were used to calculate CIR. The results show that the climate in the HID will become warmer and wetter; ET0 would would increase by 4% to 7%; ETc and CWR have the same trend as ET0, but different crops have different increase rates. CIR would increase because of the coefficient of the increase of CWR and the decrease of effective precipitation. Based on the current growing area, the CIR would increase by 198 × 106 to 242 × 106 m3 by the year 2041–2070, and by 342 × 106 to 456 × 106 m3 by the years 2071–2099 respectively. Future climate change will bring greater challenges to regional agricultural water use.

  4. A Long-Term and Reproducible Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration Data Record for Climate Studies and Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, G.; Meier, W. N.; Scott, D. J.; Savoie, M. H.

    2013-01-01

    A long-term, consistent, and reproducible satellite-based passive microwave sea ice concentration climate data record (CDR) is available for climate studies, monitoring, and model validation with an initial operation capability (IOC). The daily and monthly sea ice concentration data are on the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) polar stereographic grid with nominal 25 km × 25 km grid cells in both the Southern and Northern Hemisphere polar regions from 9 July 1987 to 31 December 2007. The data files are available in the NetCDF data format at http://nsidc.org/data/g02202.html and archived by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the satellite climate data record program (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/operationalcdrs.html). The description and basic characteristics of the NOAA/NSIDC passive microwave sea ice concentration CDR are presented here. The CDR provides similar spatial and temporal variability as the heritage products to the user communities with the additional documentation, traceability, and reproducibility that meet current standards and guidelines for climate data records. The data set, along with detailed data processing steps and error source information, can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.7265/N5B56GN3.

  5. A monthly global paleo-reanalysis of the atmosphere from 1600 to 2005 for studying past climatic variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franke, Jörg; Brönnimann, Stefan; Bhend, Jonas; Brugnara, Yuri

    2017-06-01

    Climatic variations at decadal scales such as phases of accelerated warming or weak monsoons have profound effects on society and economy. Studying these variations requires insights from the past. However, most current reconstructions provide either time series or fields of regional surface climate, which limit our understanding of the underlying dynamics. Here, we present the first monthly paleo-reanalysis covering the period 1600 to 2005. Over land, instrumental temperature and surface pressure observations, temperature indices derived from historical documents and climate sensitive tree-ring measurements were assimilated into an atmospheric general circulation model ensemble using a Kalman filtering technique. This data set combines the advantage of traditional reconstruction methods of being as close as possible to observations with the advantage of climate models of being physically consistent and having 3-dimensional information about the state of the atmosphere for various variables and at all points in time. In contrast to most statistical reconstructions, centennial variability stems from the climate model and its forcings, no stationarity assumptions are made and error estimates are provided.

  6. Modelling sea ice for climate studies: recent advances and future challenges (Louis Agassiz Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fichefet, Thierry

    2016-04-01

    Since the beginning of satellite measurements in 1979, the summer Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk at a mean rate of ~12% per decade, and there is evidence that the rate of decline has accelerated over the last decade. Current global climate models project further decrease in Arctic sea ice areal coverage through the 21st century if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase. However, rates of loss vary greatly between models, yielding a large uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean may be realized. Narrowing this uncertainty is of crucial importance since such changes in the Arctic sea ice cover might have profound ramifications, including the global ocean circulation and heat budget, regional ecosystems and wildlife, the indigenous human population, and commercial exploration and transportation. Regarding the Antarctic sea ice, its extent has been observed to slightly increase during the last 37 years, which appears puzzling in a global warming context. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain this feature, but the issue is far from being settled. On the other hand, the majority of global climate models simulate a decreasing trend in Antarctic sea ice extent over this period, which questions the validity of their Antarctic sea ice projections for the coming decades. In this lecture, we show through simulations conducted with the state of the art Louvain-la-Neuve Sea Ice Model (LIM) coupled to the Nucleous European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) platform that a number of small-scale sea ice processes, which are omitted or crudely represented in global climate models (in particular, the subgrid-scale sea ice thickness distribution, the thermodynamics and dynamics of brine pockets trapped within sea ice, processes related to snow on top of sea ice, including surface melt ponds, the sea ice mechanical deformation, and the subgrid-scale heterogeneity of atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions), play a significant role in

  7. Dust deposition in Antarctica in glacial and interglacial climate conditions: a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Sudarchikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The mineral dust cycle responds to climate variations and plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative balance of the atmosphere and modifying biogeochemistry. Polar ice cores provide a unique information about deposition of aeolian dust particles transported over long distance. These cores are a paleoclimate proxy archive of climate variability thousands of years ago. The current study is a first attempt to simulate past interglacial dust cycles with a global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The results are used to explain the dust deposition changes in Antarctica in terms of quantitative contribution of different processes, such as emission, atmospheric transport and precipitation, which will help to interpret paleodata from Antarctic ice cores. The investigated periods include four interglacial time-slices such as the pre-industrial control (CTRL, mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP, last glacial inception (115 000 yr BP and Eemian (126 000 yr BP. One glacial time interval, which is Last Glacial Maximum (LGM (21 000 yr BP was simulated as well as to be a reference test for the model. Results suggest an increase of mineral dust deposition globally, and in Antarctica, in the past interglacial periods relative to the pre-industrial CTRL simulation. Approximately two thirds of the increase in the mid-Holocene and Eemian is attributed to enhanced Southern Hemisphere dust emissions. Slightly strengthened transport efficiency causes the remaining one third of the increase in dust deposition. The moderate change of dust deposition in Antarctica in the last glacial inception period is caused by the slightly stronger poleward atmospheric transport efficiency compared to the pre-industrial. Maximum dust deposition in Antarctica was simulated for the glacial period. LGM dust deposition in Antarctica is substantially increased due to 2.6 times higher Southern Hemisphere dust emissions, two times stronger atmospheric transport towards

  8. Current methods for studying dynamic processes in the ionosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filipp, Nikolai D.; Blaunshtein, Natan Sh.; Erukhimov, Lev M.; Ivanov, Vladimir A.; Uriadov, Valerii P.

    Current experimental and theoretical data relevant to the study of dynamic processes in the ionospheric plasma using state-of-the-art methods are summarized. The methods used include linear FM sounding, partial radio wave reflection, oblique-incidence radio wave scattering, radio wave heating of the ionosphere, plasma injection, and computer simulation of physical processes. For each specific method, experimental data are compared against theoretical predictions and numerical calculations.

  9. Pancreatic exocrine studies in intact animals: historic and current methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niebergall-Roth, E; Teyssen, S; Singer, M V

    1997-12-01

    This report presents a review of the historic and current methods for performing pancreatic exocrine studies in intact animals. Special emphasis is given to the various surgical procedures--pancreatic fistulas, duodenal pouches, and duodenal fistulas--and practice of collecting pancreatic secretion in dogs. Procedures in other animal species--rat, cat, pig, rabbit, cattle, sheep, and horse--also are specified. The advantages and disadvantages, as well as the indications and limitations of the distinct methods, are discussed.

  10. How People Reason: A Grounded Theory Study of Scientific Reasoning about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shiyu

    Scientific reasoning is crucial in both scientific inquiry and everyday life. While the majority of researchers have studied "how people reason" by focusing on their cognitive processes, factors related to the underpinnings of scientific reasoning are still under-researched. The present study aimed to develop a grounded theory that captures not only the cognitive processes during reasoning but also their underpinnings. In particular, the grounded theory and phenomenographic methodologies were integrated to explore how undergraduate students reason about competing theories and evidence on global climate change. Twenty-six undergraduate students were recruited through theoretical sampling. Constant comparative analysis of responses from interviews and written assessments revealed that participants were mostly drawn to the surface features when reasoning about evidence. While prior knowledge might not directly contribute to participants' performance on evidence evaluation, it affected their level of engagement when reading and evaluating competing arguments on climate issues. More importantly, even though all participants acknowledged the relative correctness of multiple perspectives, they predominantly favored arguments that supported their own beliefs with weak scientific reasoning about the opposing arguments. Additionally, factors such as personal interests, religious beliefs, and reading capacity were also found to have bearings on the way participants evaluated evidence and arguments. In all, this work contributes to the current endeavors in exploring the nature of scientific reasoning. Taking a holistic perspective, it provides an in-depth discussion of factors that may affect or relate to scientific reasoning processes. Furthermore, in comparison with traditional methods used in the literature, the methodological approach employed in this work brought an innovative insight into the investigation of scientific reasoning. Last but not least, this research may

  11. Comparing smallholder farmers’ perception of climate change with meteorological data: A case study from southwestern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayansina Ayanlade

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change, climate variability and their impacts, and adaptation strategies adopted over the past three decades. We use ethnographic analysis, combined with Cumulative Departure Index (CDI, Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI analysis, and correlation analysis to compare farmers’ perceptions in Southwestern Nigeria with historical meteorological data, in order to assess the way farmers’ observations mirror the climatic trends. The results show that about 67% of farmers who participated had observed recent changes in climate. Perceptions of rural farmers on climate change and variability are consistent with the climatic trend analysis. RAI and CDI results illustrate that not less than 11 out of 30 years in each study site experienced lower-than-normal rainfall. Climatic trends show fluctuations in both early growing season (EGS and late growing season (LGS rainfall and the 5-year moving average suggests a reduction in rainfall over the 30 years. Climatic trends confirmed farmers’ perceptions that EGS and LGS precipitations are oscillating, that rainfall onset is becoming later, and EGS rainfall is reducing. Overall impacts of climate change on both crops and livestock appear to be highly negative, much more on maize (62.8%, yam (52.2%, poultry (67% and cattle (63.2%. Years of farming experiences and level of income of farmers appear to have a significant relationship with farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies, with r≥0.60@ p<0.05 and r≥0.520@ p<0.05 respectively. The study concluded that farmers’ perceptions of climate change mirror meteorological analysis, though their perceptions were based on local climate parameters. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to climate change since the majority of them do not have enough resources to cope.

  12. Recent Studies on Attributions of Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Zongci; DING Yihui; LUO Yong; Wang Shaowu

    2005-01-01

    Attributions of floods/cooler along the Yangtze River Valley and droughts/warmer in North China for the last 25 years have been reviewed in this paper. Both natural climate variability and human activities are considered. Some stronger evidences contributed to the natural climate variability, such as decadal and interdecadal variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon, the periodicities and transitions of rainfall and temperature changes in China, abrupt climate change, NAO, AO, AAO, ENSO, and snow cover. The signals produced by the human activities such as greenhouse gases and "brown clouds" likely play the role for the patterns. But the physical feedbacks and mechanisms still keep ambiguous and vague. More researches should be carried out in future to solve this issue.

  13. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  14. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  15. Carbon uptake sensitivity of the North Atlantic to climate change: A model study with the Bergen Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goris, Nadine; Heinze, Christoph; Tjiputra, Jerry; Schwinger, Jörg

    2015-04-01

    The efficiency of the world's oceans to take up carbon is expected to decrease with ongoing climate change, thereby increasing the atmospheric burden of carbon. Here, the North Atlantic is a region of special interest as it is one of the most important oceanic carbon sinks, featuring an exceptionally high column inventory of anthropogenic CO2. Several model studies have identified the carbon uptake of the North Atlantic as highly sensitive to climate change, but these studies are mostly global studies and are not concerned with a detailed attribution of the underlying mechanisms and their regional differences within the North Atlantic. Yet, quantifying the climate change induced CO2-uptake variability in the North Atlantic and identifying its main drivers is of high relevance for improving climate projections. In order to assess and understand the climate sensitivity of the CO2 uptake of the North Atlantic, we investigate the differences between two simulations (denoted as simulation COU and simulation BGC) carried out with the Bergen Earth System Model (BCM-C). While simulation COU features rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations (based on observed records for 1850-1999 and the IPCC SRES-A2 scenario for 2000-2099) for radiation code and carbon fluxes, simulation BGC uses rising atmospheric concentrations only for the calculation of the carbon fluxes. The differences between those simulations identify climate induced changes. Our analysis confirms the important role of the North Atlantic for carbon uptake and demonstrates that this region is most sensitive to climate change (in comparison to other oceanic regions as defined in Tjiputra et al., 2010). We furthermore identify substantially different responses to climate change in different parts of the North Atlantic. Based on these differing responses, we divide the North Atlantic into 3 regions, namely the subpolar gyre region (SPG), the high latitude region (HL) and the rest of the North Atlantic (rNAT*, covering

  16. A study on the influence of organizational climate on motivation of employees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sibel Gök

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The relation between organizational climate and organizational efficiency is frequently pointed out in recent management and labour psychology studies. Organizational climate has positive or negative impacts on performance, job satisfaction, and motivation of employees.In this study, which consists of two parts, the relation between organizational climate and work motivation is examined. The first part of the study contains theoretical framework with regard to the organizational climate and work motivation.In the second part, a field research is presented. 252 employees were interviewed in this study. The data that obtained from interviews were analyzed and subsequently evaluated in terms of statistical outcomes. The statistical results demonstrated that organizational climate has a positive influence on motivation of employees.

  17. Current analogues of future climate indicate the likely response of a sensitive montane tropical avifauna to a warming world.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander S Anderson

    Full Text Available Among birds, tropical montane species are likely to be among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet little is known about how climate drives their distributions, nor how to predict their likely responses to temperature increases. Correlative models of species' environmental niches have been widely used to predict changes in distribution, but direct tests of the relationship between key variables, such as temperature, and species' actual distributions are few. In the absence of historical data with which to compare observations and detect shifts, space-for-time substitutions, where warmer locations are used as analogues of future conditions, offer an opportunity to test for species' responses to climate. We collected density data for rainforest birds across elevational gradients in northern and southern subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT. Using environmental optima calculated from elevational density profiles, we detected a significant elevational difference between the two regions in ten of 26 species. More species showed a positive (19 spp. than negative (7 spp. displacement, with a median difference of ∼80.6 m across the species analysed that is concordant with that expected due to latitudinal temperature differences (∼75.5 m. Models of temperature gradients derived from broad-scale climate surfaces showed comparable performance to those based on in-situ measurements, suggesting the former is sufficient for modeling impacts. These findings not only confirm temperature as an important factor driving elevational distributions of these species, but also suggest species will shift upslope to track their preferred environmental conditions. Our approach uses optima calculated from elevational density profiles, offering a data-efficient alternative to distribution limits for gauging climate constraints, and is sensitive enough to detect distribution shifts in this avifauna in response to temperature changes of as little as 0

  18. Moist formulations of the EP flux and their connection to surface westerlies in current and warmer climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwyer, J. G.; O'Gorman, P. A.

    2015-12-01

    The Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux is an important diagnostic for wave propagation and wave-mean flow interaction in the atmosphere. Here we compare two moist formulations of the EP flux with the traditional dry EP flux and analyze their link to the position and strength of the surface westerlies using reanalysis data and both fully-coupled and idealized climate models. The first moist formulation of the EP flux modifies only the static stability to account for latent heat release by eddies, while the second moist formulation simply replaces all potential temperatures with equivalent potential temperatures. When moisture is taken into account, the latitude of maximum upward EP flux and maximum EP flux convergence shift equatorward and the strengths of both the flux and convergence increase, with larger changes for the second moist formulation. In simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, both the peak surface winds and peak upward EP flux in the lower troposphere tend to be co-located throughout the seasonal cycle (especially in the moist formulations) and shift poleward by similar amounts in response to greenhouse warming. In simulations over a wider range of climates with an idealized atmospheric climate model we find that in cold climates the position of the surface westerlies coincides with the position of the maximum vertical EP flux and shifts poleward with warming, while in warm climates the surface westerlies coincide with an anomalous region of EP flux divergence near the subtropical jet. An isentropic potential enstrophy budget analysis reveals that in this model the anomalous EP flux divergence is balanced by vertical eddy PV fluxes associated with diabatic heating from large-scale condensation and radiation. The anomalous divergence is weaker when using moist EP fluxes, indicating that the moist formulations are partly capturing this effect.

  19. How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claas Teichmann

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Global and regional climate model simulations are frequently used for regional climate change assessments and in climate impact modeling studies. To reflect the inherent and methodological uncertainties in climate modeling, the assessment of regional climate change requires ensemble simulations from different global and regional climate model combinations. To interpret the spread of simulated results, it is useful to understand how the climate change signal is modified in the GCM-RCM modelmodelgeneral circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM chain. This kind of information can also be useful for impact modelers; for the process of experiment design and when interpreting model results. In this study, we investigate how the simulated historical and future climate of the Max-Planck-Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM is modified by dynamic downscaling with the regional model REMO in different world regions. The historical climate simulations for 1950–2005 are driven by observed anthropogenic forcing. The climate projections are driven by projected anthropogenic forcing according to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The global simulations are downscaled with REMO over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX domains Africa, Europe, South America and West Asia from 2006–2100. This unique set of simulations allows for climate type specific analysis across multiple world regions and for multi-scenarios. We used a classification of climate types by Köppen-Trewartha to define evaluation regions with certain climate conditions. A systematic comparison of near-surface temperature and precipitation simulated by the regional and the global model is done. In general, the historical time period is well represented by the GCM and the RCM. Some different biases occur in the RCM compared to the GCM as in the Amazon Basin, northern Africa and the West Asian domain. Both models project similar warming

  20. Sclerochronological studies in the humboldt current system, a highly variable ecosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Gosselin, M; Lazareth, Claire E.; Ortlieb, Luc

    2013-01-01

    The Humboldt Current that bathes the west coast of South America is affected by different influences at daily to decadal periodicities. Environmental influences such as upwelling or coastal trapped waves as well as climate influences such as El Nino southern oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation events interact and modify the thermonutricline depth of this Humboldt Current System. The position of this thermonutricline plays a key role in Humboldt Current System functioning by driving se...

  1. Current Status of Integral Medical Study on Endometriosis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Chao-qin (俞超芹); YU Jin (俞瑾)

    2003-01-01

    @@ Endometriosis (EM), an estrogen dependent disease that comes from the planting of endometrial gland and stroma outside the uterine cavity, is characterized by invasiveness, wide planting and liability to relapse. It has been proved by recent studies that the pathogenesis of EM has its genetic background and is closely related with neuro-, endocrino- and immuno-factors. There has been great progress in the treatment of EM, but the clinical effect is not yet satisfactory. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has definitely played its role in EM treatment. In this article, the current status of integral medical study on EM is reviewed.

  2. Assessment of Human Health Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Cuba

    OpenAIRE

    Bultó, Paulo Lázaro Ortíz; Rodríguez,Antonio Pérez; Valencia, Alina Rivero; Vega, Nicolás León; Gonzalez, Manuel Díaz; Carrera, Alina Pérez

    2006-01-01

    In this study we assessed the potential effects of climate variability and change on population health in Cuba. We describe the climate of Cuba as well as the patterns of climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern, particularly dengue fever. Analyses of the associations between climatic anomalies and disease patterns highlight current vulnerability to climate variability. We describe current adaptations, including the application of climate predictions to prevent disease outbreaks. Finally...

  3. Assessing atmospheric temperature data sets for climate studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnus Cederlöf

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Observed near-surface temperature trends during the period 1979–2014 show large differences between land and ocean, with positive values over land (0.25–0.27 °C/decade that are significantly larger than over the ocean (0.06–0.12 °C/decade. Temperature trends in the mid-troposphere of 0.08-0.11 °C/decade, on the other hand, are similar for both land and ocean and agree closely with the ocean surface temperature trend. The lapse rate is consequently systematically larger over land than over the ocean and also shows a positive trend in most land areas. This is puzzling as a response to external warming, such as from increasing greenhouse gases, is broadly the same throughout the troposphere. The reduced tropospheric warming trend over land suggests a weaker vertical temperature coupling indicating that some of the processes in the planetary boundary layer such as inversions have a limited influence on the temperature of the free atmosphere. Alternatively, the temperature of the free atmosphere is influenced by advection of colder tropospheric air from the oceans. It is therefore suggested to use either the more robust tropospheric temperature or ocean surface temperature in studies of climate sensitivity. We also conclude that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim can be used to obtain consistent temperature trends through the depth of the atmosphere, as they are consistent both with near-surface temperature trends and atmospheric temperature trends obtained from microwave sounding sensors.

  4. Agricultural Climate Change and Wetland Agriculture Study under the Climate Change in the Sanjiang Plain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Minhua; LIU Xingtu; LI Xiujun

    2009-01-01

    With linear curvefitting, Mann-kendall method and Yamamoto method, ≥10 ℃accumulated temperature and precipitation from May to September of 6 meteorological stations (Baoqing, fujin, Jiamusi, Hegang, Jixi and Hulin) from 1978 to 2007 were used to explore 30-year agricultural climate change and trend in the Sanjiang Plain. The results showed that ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature of the 6 stations have risen by 141.0 ℃ to 287.4 ℃ when estimated by their significant linear trends (n=30, α=0.05) over the last 30 years (1978 to 2007). The rates of warming for the last 30 years range from 4.70 ℃per year to 9.58 ℃ per year. There are not significant linear trends on precipitation from May to September of the 6 stations over the last 30 years. The period of 1978 to 1998 in which ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature is lower is consistent with that in which there is more precipitation from May to September, and warming and drying period has occurred in the Sanjiang Plain since 1999. Under the background of warming and drying agricultural climate, high yield cultivation of Phragmites australis and establishment of Phragmites australis-fish (crab) symbiosis ecosystem in natural mire are the ways for reasonable use of natural wetland. The area of paddy fields has been increasing from 7.25×104 ha in 1978 to 121.2×104 ha in 2006. It is proposed that paddy field range should not be expanded blindly toward the north in the Sanjiang Plain, and chilling injury forecast and prevention should be pay attention to. In the area that the chilling injury happens frequently, the rotation between rice and other crops should be implemented. Measures, which combine drainage, store and irrigation, should be taken instead of single drainage on comprehensive control of regional low and wet croplands to ensure controlling drought and flood.

  5. Aquifer Storage and Recovery as a Viable Climate Change Adaptation Technique: Sustainable Development under the Current Regulatory Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    A holistic investigation of aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) technique and application in the U.S. is being conducted as a part of the USEPA Water Resources Adaptation Program (WRAP). The research focus is to evaluate the potential of ASR application as a practical climate chan...

  6. Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Current Farming Locations of Striped Catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus; Sauvage) in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, L.A.; Dang, V.H.; Bosma, R.H.; Verreth, J.A.J.; Leemans, R.; Silva, De S.S.

    2014-01-01

    In Vietnam, culturing striped catfish makes an important contribution to the Mekong Delta's economy. Water level rise during rainy season and salt intrusion during dry season affect the water exchange and quality for this culture. Sea level rise as a consequence of climate change will worsen these i

  7. STUDY OF NORTHERN WINTER ATMOSPHERIC ACTIVE CENTERS (AAC) CLIMATE BASE-STATE WITH ITS CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EFFECTS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The study of low-frequency oscillations is an important part of climate variability research. In view of insufficient efforts spent on multidecadal and ENSO-scale changes of the climate, the present paper undertakes study of > 30 year slowly-varying means, called climate base state (CBS), of northern winter AAC's in the past 100 years and more, with the CBS variability and its temporal evolution investigated, indicating that Aleutian low and Icelandic low (North Pacific high and North American high) experience maximum (minimum) variation in the CBS. The CBS exhibits two modes for its variation. The positive (negative) phase of mode I presents a weak (strong) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), a weaker (stronger) NPO (North Pacific Oscillation), a robust (feeble) Siberian high and a quite weak (vigorous) Aleutian low whilst the positive (negative) phase of mode II reveals a feeble (strong) Aleutian low and a weak (robust) Siberian high. Also, the research shows that the recent CBS of northern circulations is in a remarkably negative phase of mode I and a noticeably positive phase of mode II, viz., in the background of slowly-varying circulations of an exceptionally weak Siberian high, an extremely vigorous Aleutian low and an intense NAO. The background field is likely to persist for a matter of 30 years such that northern winter temperature is expected to be in such a warm situation for a long period to follow.

  8. High-resolution climate and land surface interactions modeling over Belgium: current state and decennial scale projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquemin, Ingrid; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Beckers, Veronique; Berckmans, Julie; Debusscher, Bos; Dury, Marie; Minet, Julien; Hamdi, Rafiq; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Tychon, Bernard; Hambuckers, Alain; François, Louis

    2016-04-01

    The interactions between land surface and climate are complex. Climate changes can affect ecosystem structure and functions, by altering photosynthesis and productivity or inducing thermal and hydric stresses on plant species. These changes then impact socio-economic systems, through e.g., lower farming or forestry incomes. Ultimately, it can lead to permanent changes in land use structure, especially when associated with other non-climatic factors, such as urbanization pressure. These interactions and changes have feedbacks on the climate systems, in terms of changing: (1) surface properties (albedo, roughness, evapotranspiration, etc.) and (2) greenhouse gas emissions (mainly CO2, CH4, N2O). In the framework of the MASC project (« Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate »), we aim at improving regional climate model projections at the decennial scale over Belgium and Western Europe by combining high-resolution models of climate, land surface dynamics and socio-economic processes. The land surface dynamics (LSD) module is composed of a dynamic vegetation model (CARAIB) calculating the productivity and growth of natural and managed vegetation, and an agent-based model (CRAFTY), determining the shifts in land use and land cover. This up-scaled LSD module is made consistent with the surface scheme of the regional climate model (RCM: ALARO) to allow simulations of the RCM with a fully dynamic land surface for the recent past and the period 2000-2030. In this contribution, we analyze the results of the first simulations performed with the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model over Belgium at a resolution of 1km. This analysis is performed at the species level, using a set of 17 species for natural vegetation (trees and grasses) and 10 crops, especially designed to represent the Belgian vegetation. The CARAIB model is forced with surface atmospheric variables derived from the monthly global CRU climatology or ALARO outputs

  9. Study on Climate and Grassland Fire in HulunBuir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meifang; Zhao, Jianjun; Guo, Xiaoyi; Zhang, Zhengxiang; Tan, Gang; Yang, Jihong

    2017-01-01

    Grassland fire is one of the most important disturbance factors of the natural ecosystem. Climate factors influence the occurrence and development of grassland fire. An analysis of the climate conditions of fire occurrence can form the basis for a study of the temporal and spatial variability of grassland fire. The purpose of this paper is to study the effects of monthly time scale climate factors on the occurrence of grassland fire in HulunBuir, located in the northeast of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in China. Based on the logistic regression method, we used the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire data products named thermal anomalies/fire daily L3 Global 1km (MOD14A1 (Terra) and MYD14A1 (Aqua)) and associated climate data for HulunBuir from 2000 to 2010, and established the model of grassland fire climate index. The results showed that monthly maximum temperature, monthly sunshine hours and monthly average wind speed were all positively correlated with the fire climate index; monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, monthly average relative humidity, monthly minimum relative humidity and the number of days with monthly precipitation greater than or equal to 5 mm were all negatively correlated with the fire climate index. We used the active fire data from 2011 to 2014 to validate the fire climate index during this time period, and the validation result was good (Pearson’s correlation coefficient was 0.578), which showed that the fire climate index model was suitable for analyzing the occurrence of grassland fire in HulunBuir. Analyses were conducted on the temporal and spatial distribution of the fire climate index from January to December in the years 2011–2014; it could be seen that from March to May and from September to October, the fire climate index was higher, and that the fire climate index of the other months is relatively low. The zones with higher fire climate index are mainly distributed in Xin

  10. Understanding the joint behavior of temperature and precipitation for climate change impact studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid; Qin, Yueyue

    2017-07-01

    The multiple downscaled scenario products allow us to assess the uncertainty of the variations of precipitation and temperature in the current and future periods. Probabilistic assessments of both climatic variables help better understand the interdependence of the two and thus, in turn, help in assessing the future with confidence. In the present study, we use ensemble of statistically downscaled precipitation and temperature from various models. The dataset used is multi-model ensemble of 10 global climate models (GCMs) downscaled product from CMIP5 daily dataset using the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique, generated at Portland State University. The multi-model ensemble of both precipitation and temperature is evaluated for dry and wet periods for 10 sub-basins across Columbia River Basin (CRB). Thereafter, copula is applied to establish the joint distribution of two variables on multi-model ensemble data. The joint distribution is then used to estimate the change in trends of said variables in future, along with estimation of the probabilities of the given change. The joint distribution trends vary, but certainly positive, for dry and wet periods in sub-basins of CRB. Dry season, generally, is indicating a higher positive change in precipitation than temperature (as compared to historical) across sub-basins with wet season inferring otherwise. Probabilities of changes in future, as estimated from the joint distribution, indicate varied degrees and forms during dry season whereas the wet season is rather constant across all the sub-basins.

  11. Dealing with uncertainties in impact studies of climate change on hydrometeorological series over Segura River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Garcia Cardenas, R.; Tetay Botia, C.; Giraldo Osorio, J.; Erena Arrabal, M.; Baille, A.

    2011-12-01

    The Segura River Basin (SRB) located in the South East of Spain, is affected by recurrent drought and water scarcity episodes. This basin presents the lowest percentage of renewable water resources of all the Spanish basins. Intensive reforestation has been carried out in the region, to halt desertification and erosion, which added to climate change and variability, do not allow the default assumption of stationarity in the water resources systems. Therefore, the study of effects in hydrometeorological series should be addressed by nonstationary probabilistic models that allow describing the time evolution of their probability distribution functions (PDFs). In the present work, the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shaper) approach is applied to identify of spatio-temporal trends in observed precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), at basin scale. Several previous studies have addressed the potential impacts of climate change in water supply systems, focusing on the sensitivity analysis of runoff to climate. Considering the use of a conceptual hydrological model with few parameters, the impacts on runoff and its trend from historical data, are assessed. The conclusions of this study represent a breakthrough in the development of methodologies to understand and anticipate the impacts on water resources systems, in the light of current and future climate conditions, considering hydroclimatic non-stationarity. These findings are expected to contribute to the management of conditions of water resources scarcity and droughts, such as the observed in the SRB, as support to decision-making process by stakeholders.

  12. Climate refugees, refugees or under own protection? : A comparative study between climate refugees and refugees embraced by the United Nations Refugee Convention

    OpenAIRE

    Clarin, Malin

    2011-01-01

    Global warming is a current topic on the international agenda. The rise of temperature in the atmosphere threatens populations living on island, deltas and coastal areas, and people living nearby the Arctic and areas covered by permafrost are threatened. In turn this leads to the people in these areas being projected to be homeless or displaced due to climate change and the rising numbers of natural disasters. Those people are what you can label as climate refugees. According to IOM and Brown...

  13. NSF-PARCS: A Case Study in Proxy Climate Syntheses for the CCSP Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvall, M.; Kaufman, D.; MacDonald, G.

    2004-12-01

    The research agenda of the NSF-funded Paleoenvironmental Arctic Sciences (PARCS) program has focused recently on high-resolution records that provide quantifiable estimates of past climates. Syntheses of this research are planned to meet the needs of both the research community and the US Climate Change Science Program. PARCS provides a case study into how proxy climate data generated by a group of collaborating scientists have input into a broader assessment. PARCS was founded in 1999 as an NSF initiative straddling the Arctic System Science (ARCSS) and the Earth System History (ESH) programs to foster a wide range of research on paleoenvironmental change in the Arctic. In March 2001, the PARCS scientific community met to focus its research agenda with the goal of more directly contributing to global-change assessments by providing high-resolution, quantified estimates of past climate. The result was the science plan, "Modes of Arctic Climate Variability and Warmth," an area of research interest under the ESH Program. The plan identified a suite of deliverables that mesh with products now identified by the 2003 CCSP. PARCS has organized workshops addressing this suite of deliverables on the subjects of warm Arctic scenarios (the last interglacial and the Holocene thermal maximum) and variability in Arctic summer temperatures (annual to decadal scale resolution) to review and assemble proxy climate data in preparation for peer-reviewed summaries and for broader dissemination of data syntheses. The goal is to generate data related to these specific themes, and to integrate these data with records currently being produced by other groups nationally and internationally. The data will be assembled, analyzed, and presented as part of a searchable geo-referenced database. PARCS' vehicle for presenting these syntheses beyond peer-reviewed publication is a web-enabled database. The database is being assembled by a PARCS-dedicated data manager whose duties include creation

  14. Efficient three-dimensional global models for climate studies - Models I and II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russel, G.; Rind, D.; Lacis, A.; Travis, L.; Stone, P.; Lebedeff, S.; Ruedy, R.; Hansen, J.

    1983-01-01

    Climate modeling based on numerical solution of the fundamental equations for atmospheric structure and motion permits the explicit modeling of physical processes in the climate system and the natural treatment of interactions and feedbacks among parts of the system. The main difficulty concerning this approach is related to the computational requirements. The present investigation is concerned with the development of a grid-point model which is programmed so that both horizontal and vertical resolutions can easily be changed. Attention is given to a description of Model I, the performance of sensitivity experiments by varying parameters, the definition of an improved Model II, and a study of the dependence of climate simulation on resolution with Model II. It is shown that the major features of global climate can be simulated reasonably well with a horizontal resolution as coarse as 1000 km. Such a resolution allows the possibility of long-range climate studies with moderate computer resources.

  15. Climate change and the emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe: case study of dengue fever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouzid, Maha; Colón-González, Felipe J; Lung, Tobias; Lake, Iain R; Hunter, Paul R

    2014-08-22

    Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease worldwide. Dengue transmission is critically dependent on climatic factors and there is much concern as to whether climate change would spread the disease to areas currently unaffected. The occurrence of autochthonous infections in Croatia and France in 2010 has raised concerns about a potential re-emergence of dengue in Europe. The objective of this study is to estimate dengue risk in Europe under climate change scenarios. We used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to estimate dengue fever risk as a function of climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity) and socioeconomic factors (population density, urbanisation, GDP per capita and population size), under contemporary conditions (1985-2007) in Mexico. We then used our model estimates to project dengue incidence under baseline conditions (1961-1990) and three climate change scenarios: short-term 2011-2040, medium-term 2041-2070 and long-term 2071-2100 across Europe. The model was used to calculate average number of yearly dengue cases at a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km grid covering all land surface of the currently 27 EU member states. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model dengue fever risk in Europe in terms of disease occurrence rather than mosquito presence. The results were presented using Geographical Information System (GIS) and allowed identification of areas at high risk. Dengue fever hot spots were clustered around the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas and the Po Valley in northern Italy. This risk assessment study is likely to be a valuable tool assisting effective and targeted adaptation responses to reduce the likely increased burden of dengue fever in a warmer world.

  16. Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H Charles J; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; Scarborough, Peter

    2016-05-07

    One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to

  17. Paying research participants: a study of current practices in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fry, C L; Ritter, A; Baldwin, S; Bowen, K J; Gardiner, P; Holt, T; Jenkinson, R; Johnston, J

    2005-09-01

    To examine current research payment practices and to inform development of clearer guidelines for researchers and ethics committees. Exploratory email based questionnaire study of current research participant reimbursement practices. A diverse sample of organisations and individuals were targeted. Australia. Contacts in 84 key research organisations and select electronic listservers across Australia. A total of 100 completed questionnaires were received with representations from a variety of research areas (for example, market, alcohol and drug, medical, pharmaceutical and social research). Open-ended and fixed alternative questions about type of research agency; type of research; type of population under study; whether payment is standard; amounts and mechanisms of payment; factors taken into account when deciding on payment practices; and whether payment policies exist. Reimbursement practice is highly variable. Where it occurs (most commonly for drug dependent rather than health professional or general population samples) it is largely monetary and is for time and out-of-pocket expenses. Ethics committees were reported to be often involved in decision making around reimbursement. Research subject payment practices vary in Australia. Researchers who do provide payments to research participants generally do so without written policy and procedures. Ethics committees have an important role in developing guidelines in this area. Specific guidelines are needed considering existing local policies and procedures; payment models and their application in diverse settings; case study examples of types and levels of reimbursement; applied definitions of incentive and inducement; and the rationale for diverse payment practices in different settings.

  18. Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathison, Camilla; Wiltshire, Andrew; Dimri, A P; Falloon, Pete; Jacob, Daniela; Kumar, Pankaj; Moors, Eddy; Ridley, Jeff; Siderius, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Yasunari, T

    2013-12-01

    Adaptation is increasingly important for regions around the world where large changes in climate could have an impact on populations and industry. The Brahmaputra-Ganges catchments have a large population, a main industry of agriculture and a growing hydro-power industry, making the region susceptible to changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon, annually the main water source. The HighNoon project has completed four regional climate model simulations for India and the Himalaya at high resolution (25km) from 1960 to 2100 to provide an ensemble of simulations for the region. In this paper we have assessed the ensemble for these catchments, comparing the simulations with observations, to give credence that the simulations provide a realistic representation of atmospheric processes and therefore future climate. We have illustrated how these simulations could be used to provide information on potential future climate impacts and therefore aid decision-making using climatology and threshold analysis. The ensemble analysis shows an increase in temperature between the baseline (1970-2000) and the 2050s (2040-2070) of between 2 and 4°C and an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures above 28°C and 35°C. There is less certainty for precipitation and runoff which show considerable variability, even in this relatively small ensemble, spanning zero. The HighNoon ensemble is the most complete data for the region providing useful information on a wide range of variables for the regional climate of the Brahmaputra-Ganges region, however there are processes not yet included in the models that could have an impact on the simulations of future climate. We have discussed these processes and show that the range from the HighNoon ensemble is similar in magnitude to potential changes in projections where these processes are included. Therefore strategies for adaptation must be robust and flexible allowing for advances in the science and natural environmental changes

  19. Current Mathematical Methods Used in QSAR/QSPR Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peixun Liu

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper gives an overview of the mathematical methods currently used in quantitative structure-activity/property relationship (QASR/QSPR studies. Recently, the mathematical methods applied to the regression of QASR/QSPR models are developing very fast, and new methods, such as Gene Expression Programming (GEP, Project Pursuit Regression (PPR and Local Lazy Regression (LLR have appeared on the QASR/QSPR stage. At the same time, the earlier methods, including Multiple Linear Regression (MLR, Partial Least Squares (PLS, Neural Networks (NN, Support Vector Machine (SVM and so on, are being upgraded to improve their performance in QASR/QSPR studies. These new and upgraded methods and algorithms are described in detail, and their advantages and disadvantages are evaluated and discussed, to show their application potential in QASR/QSPR studies in the future.

  20. Current management of bronchiectasis: review and 3 case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverman, Enid; Ebright, Linda; Kwiatkowski, Marianne; Cullina, Joanne

    2003-01-01

    Bronchiectasis is the abnormal, irreversible dilatation of diseased bronchi. Permanently dilated airways, usually in the medium-sized bronchi, are inflamed and often obstructed with thick, purulent secretions. Known causative factors include postinfection bronchial damage, postinhalation injury, hypersensitivity reactions, and congenital airway obstructive disorders. Typical symptoms include sputum overproduction, fever, pleurisy, dyspnea, and chronic cough. Diagnosis involves radiographic studies and pulmonary function testing. Treatment includes oral, aerosolized, or intravenous antibiotic therapy according to the severity of the exacerbation, and mucus clearance by means of bronchial hygiene assistive devices, chest physiotherapy, postural drainage, and high-frequency chest compression. We present a review of bronchiectasis and offer 3 case studies illustrating current management of different presentations, including use of aerosolized antibiotics for patients infected with Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Although an adjunctive program of pulmonary rehabilitation may be useful for patients with bronchiectasis, no confirming studies have been performed to date, and additional research in this area is warranted.

  1. The association between team climate at work and mental health in the Finnish Health 2000 Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinokki, M; Hinkka, K; Ahola, K; Koskinen, S; Klaukka, T; Kivimäki, M; Puukka, P; Lönnqvist, J; Virtanen, M

    2009-08-01

    Depression, anxiety and alcohol use disorders are common mental health problems in the working population. However, the team climate at work related to these disorders has not been studied using standardised interview methods and it is not known whether poor team climate predicts antidepressant use. This study investigated whether team climate at work was associated with DSM-IV depressive, anxiety and alcohol use disorders and subsequent antidepressant medication in a random sample of Finnish employees. The nationally representative sample comprised 3347 employees aged 30-64 years. Team climate was measured with a self-assessment scale. Diagnoses of depressive, anxiety and alcohol use disorders were based on the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Data on the purchase of antidepressant medication in a 3-year follow-up period were collected from a nationwide pharmaceutical register of the Social Insurance Institution. In the risk factor adjusted models, poor team climate at work was significantly associated with depressive disorders (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.36) but not with alcohol use disorders. The significance of the association between team climate and anxiety disorders disappeared when the model was adjusted for job control and job demands. Poor team climate also predicted antidepressant medication (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.30). A poor team climate at work is associated with depressive disorders and subsequent antidepressant use.

  2. A SIMULATION STUDY ON THE SHRUNK WETLAND AROUND QINGHAI LAKE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG HanJie; JING Li; GAO YunXiao

    2005-01-01

    Because of the increasing concerns about global climate change, it has been known by more and more peoples that there is a close relationship between wetland and/or peatland resources and climate change. This paper presents a new methodology to study the local climate variation caused by wetland shrinking around Qinghai Lake, the largest in-land salty lake in China, by use of a regional climate model (RCM) that commonly used in climate change study. The objective focuses on the regional climate effect of the shrunk wetland coverage in recent years. The results of numerical experiment showed that if the wetland coverage around Qinhai Lake were recovered as if in early 50s of last century,the regional climate in this area could be better with more cloud covers, higher relative humidity and more precipitation. In the other word, the area of wetland reduced is one of the most important reasons that caused regional climate aridification,eco-environmental deterioration and even desertification around Qinhai Lake.

  3. FLOOD RISK FACTORS IN SUBURBAN AREA IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION POLICIES – CASE STUDY OF WROCLAW, POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymon Szewrański

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The uncontrolled sprawl of urban development exerts environmental impact in rural areas. The aim of this study is to identify areas vulnerable to climate change in the context of implementation of policies adapting to climate change at the local level. Such areas can be defined as those where the negative implication of flesh flood overlapping with soil sealing is observed. The study areas composed of municipalities which are influenced by the urban sprawl process of the city of Wroclaw, Poland. The analyses were performed using publicly available spatial data from aerial orthophotomaps from 2004–2012, the satellite images; archival and current land use maps. The database CORINE 1990, 2000, 2006; Urban Atlas and geodatabase of the European Environment Agency were also of an important usage for this study.

  4. Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of forests in the Indian Western Himalayan region: A case study of Himachal Pradesh, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujata Upgupta

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment at state and regional levels is necessary to develop adaptation strategies for forests in the biogeographically vital Himalayan region. The present study assesses forest ecosystem vulnerability to climate change across Himachal Pradesh and presents the priority districts for vulnerability reduction under ‘current climate’ and ‘future climate’ scenarios. Vulnerability of forests under ‘current climate’ scenario is assessed by adopting indicator-based approach, while the vulnerability under ‘future climate’ scenario is assessed using climate and vegetation impact models. Based on the vulnerability index estimated to present the vulnerability of forests under current and projected climate change impacts representing climate driven vulnerability, five districts – Chamba, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi and Shimla are identified as priority forest districts for adaptation planning. Identifying vulnerable forest districts and forests will help policy makers and forest managers to prioritize resource allocation and forest management interventions, to restore health and productivity of forests and to build long-term resilience to climate change.

  5. Current meter components and other data from fixed platforms from TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) and other locations in support of the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) and the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) projects from 16 April 1989 to 14 May 1990 (NODC Accession 9200266)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter components data were collected from fixed platforms from the TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) and other locations from 16 April 1989 to 14 May 1990....

  6. The case study of climate change : the nature of risk and the risk of nature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Good, J. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). Dept. of Communication

    2000-06-01

    The science of climate change is complex, large-scale and uncertain. The challenges of communicating the risks of climate change were described with particular emphasis on working with communities to explain climate change with its complex, scientific and social realities. The greenhouse effect is a feature of the earth in which a carbon dioxide blanket absorbs the sun's heat as it radiates off the earth. The paper stated that the greenhouse effect is arguably the best accepted theory in climatology, but the question is whether the huge increase in carbon dioxide that the industrial revolution has brought forth has increased the efficiency of this blanket and set the earth on a warming trend. The ultimate question is whether the earth is warming in response to human activity. It could be claimed that apart from the risk of nuclear war, the risk of climate change is the largest scale risk facing today's society. Climate change pits the burning of fossil fuels against the climate and as a modern day risk, climate change is far removed from the historic roots of environmental risks. The paper argued, that in a world based on burning fossil fuels and where those who are involved with the supply of fossil fuels hold tremendous influence, it is difficult to accept that the burning might have to stop. This paper explored how and what people currently learn about the environment and climate change through the media. A three-step communication strategy based in the United States was then proposed. The first step is aimed at journalists with focus on improved accuracy of climate change information. The second step focuses on urban centres and has as its guiding concepts self-efficacy, reasoned action and the importance of reaching people in diverse communities. The final step is aimed at political leaders, beginning with municipalities, and relies on campaigns for alternative energy.

  7. analysis and mapping of climate change risk and vulnerability in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    regarding vulnerability to climate change at the local scale. This study was ... prime contributor to food security (CEEPA, 2006). Climate ... developing world, home to half of the world's currently ... change impacts on the landscape to more.

  8. Future Climate Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C. G. Cambell

    2004-09-03

    This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past

  9. Study of wind turbine foundations in cold climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-11-01

    This report provides an overview of the processes at work in soil in cold climates and their effect on wind turbine foundations. Havsnaes wind farm consists of 48 turbines located in Jaemtland county in central Sweden. Havsnaes has provided an appropriate research environment to investigate the engineering challenges related to the design and construction of wind turbine foundations in sub-arctic conditions and the experienced gained from this project informs this report.

  10. Simulation studies of direct-current microdischarges for electric propulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deconinck, Thomas Dominique

    The structure of direct-current microdischarges is investigated using a detailed two-dimensional multi-species continuum model. Microdischarges are direct-current discharges that operate at a relatively high pressure of about 100 Torr and geometric dimensions in the 10-100 micrometer range. Our motivation for the study of microdischarges comes from a potential application of these devices in microthrusters for small satellite propulsion. The Micro Plasma Thruster (MPT) concept consists of a direct-current microdischarge in a geometry comprising a constant area flow section followed by a diverging exit nozzle. A detailed description of the plasma dynamics inside the MPT including power deposition, ionization, coupling of the plasma phenomena with high-speed flow, and propulsion system performance is reported in this study. A two-dimensional model is developed as part of this study. The model consists of a plasma module coupled to a flow module and is solved on a hybrid unstructured mesh framework. The plasma module provides a self-consistent, multi-species, multi-temperature description of the microdischarge phenomena while the flow module provides a description of the low Reynolds number compressible flow through the system. The plasma module solves conservation equations for plasma species continuity and electron energy, and Poisson's equation for the self-consistent electric field. The flow module solves mass, bulk gas momentum and energy equations. The coupling of energy from the electrostatic field to the plasma species is modeled by the Joule heating term which appears in the electron and heavy species energy equations. Discretization of the Joule heating term on unstructured meshes requires special attention. We propose a new robust method for the numerical discretization of the Joule heating term on such meshes using a cell-centered, finite volume approach. A prototypical microhollow cathode discharge (MHCD) is studied to guide and validate the modeling

  11. The Role of Technology for Achieving Climate Policy Objectives: Overview of the EMF 27 Study on Technology Strategies and Climate Policy Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Weyant, John; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Krey, Volker; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Fawcett, Allen A.; Luderer, Gunnar; Riahi, Keywan; Richels, Richard G.; Rose, Steven; Tavoni, Massimo; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-01

    This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 19 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the value of individual mitigation technologies such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Achieving atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration targets at 450 and 550 ppm CO2 equivalent requires massive greenhouse gas emissions reductions. A fragmented policy approach at the level of current ambition is inconsistent with these targets. The availability of a negative emissions technology, in most models biofuels with CCS, proved to be a key element for achieving the climate targets. Robust characteristics of the transformation of the energy system are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy have largest value, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The individual value of low-carbon power technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm CO2e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology variability. Mitigation costs roughly double when moving from 550 ppm to 450 ppm CO2e, but remain below 3% of GDP for most models.

  12. Current Conceptual Challenges in the Study of Rhythm Processing Deficits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline eTranchant

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Interest in the study of rhythm processing deficits (RPD is currently growing in the cognitive neuroscience community, as this type of investigation constitutes a powerful tool for the understanding of normal rhythm processing. Because this field is in its infancy, it still lacks a common conceptual vocabulary to facilitate effective communication between different researchers and research groups. In this commentary, we provide a brief review of recent reports of RPD through the lens of one important empirical issue: the method by which beat perception is measured, and the consequences of method selection for the researcher’s ability to specify which mechanisms are impaired in RPD. This critical reading advocates for the importance of matching measurement tools to the putative neurocognitive mechanisms under study, and reveals the need for effective and specific assessments of the different aspects of rhythm perception and synchronization.

  13. Climate impact of biofuels in shipping: global model studies of the aerosol indirect effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righi, Mattia; Klinger, Carolin; Eyring, Veronika; Hendricks, Johannes; Lauer, Axel; Petzold, Andreas

    2011-04-15

    Aerosol emissions from international shipping are recognized to have a large impact on the Earth's radiation budget, directly by scattering and absorbing solar radiation and indirectly by altering cloud properties. New regulations have recently been approved by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) aiming at progressive reductions of the maximum sulfur content allowed in marine fuels from current 4.5% by mass down to 0.5% in 2020, with more restrictive limits already applied in some coastal regions. In this context, we use a global bottom-up algorithm to calculate geographically resolved emission inventories of gaseous (NO(x), CO, SO(2)) and aerosol (black carbon, organic matter, sulfate) species for different kinds of low-sulfur fuels in shipping. We apply these inventories to study the resulting changes in radiative forcing, attributed to particles from shipping, with the global aerosol-climate model EMAC-MADE. The emission factors for the different fuels are based on measurements at a test bed of a large diesel engine. We consider both fossil fuel (marine gas oil) and biofuels (palm and soy bean oil) as a substitute for heavy fuel oil in the current (2006) fleet and compare their climate impact to that resulting from heavy fuel oil use. Our simulations suggest that ship-induced surface level concentrations of sulfate aerosol are strongly reduced, up to about 40-60% in the high-traffic regions. This clearly has positive consequences for pollution reduction in the vicinity of major harbors. Additionally, such reductions in the aerosol loading lead to a decrease of a factor of 3-4 in the indirect global aerosol effect induced by emissions from international shipping.

  14. Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  15. Now what do people know about global climate change? Survey studies of educated laypeople.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Travis William; Bostrom, Ann; Read, Daniel; Morgan, M Granger

    2010-10-01

    In 1992, a mental-models-based survey in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, revealed that educated laypeople often conflated global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, and appeared relatively unaware of the role of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in global warming. This study compares those survey results with 2009 data from a sample of similarly well-educated laypeople responding to the same survey instrument. Not surprisingly, following a decade of explosive attention to climate change in politics and in the mainstream media, survey respondents in 2009 showed higher awareness and comprehension of some climate change causes. Most notably, unlike those in 1992, 2009 respondents rarely mentioned ozone depletion as a cause of global warming. They were also far more likely to correctly volunteer energy use as a major cause of climate change; many in 2009 also cited natural processes and historical climatic cycles as key causes. When asked how to address the problem of climate change, while respondents in 1992 were unable to differentiate between general "good environmental practices" and actions specific to addressing climate change, respondents in 2009 have begun to appreciate the differences. Despite this, many individuals in 2009 still had incorrect beliefs about climate change, and still did not appear to fully appreciate key facts such as that global warming is primarily due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the single most important source of this carbon dioxide is the combustion of fossil fuels.

  16. Using Evaluation Studies to Understand Educator Needs, Practices and Strategies for Success in Climate Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buhr, S. M.; Gold, A. U.; Ledley, T. S.; Lynds, S. E.

    2012-12-01

    Climate education is situated within a complex landscape of scientific findings, educational practices and public opinion. Supporting educators within this landscape requires an informed understanding of educators' needs, barriers and the strategies that lead to success. Because few of these aspects have been described in the peer-reviewed literature, climate education investigators must develop this understanding through close attention to the voices of educators. This presentation will describe evaluation strategies designed to understand the needs of climate educators and use of evaluation findings to better support educators. These strategies were employed within teacher professional development projects and within the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) digital learning collection. Findings are derived from a national needs assessment, pre- and post- assessment of learning gains within a teacher professional development initiative, and results from a multi-year Informant Network study of educators grades 6-16. Findings used to inform projects cover a range of climate education dimensions, including educators' beliefs and attitudes about climate science, use of digital learning resources, instructional time on climate topics, subjects in which climate topics are taught, and important sources of professional support.

  17. US country studies program: Support for climate change studies, national plans, and technology assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes the objectives of the next phase of the U.S. Country Studies Program which was launched in support of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The next phases of this program aim to: assist countries in preparing Climate Change Action plans; support technology assessments and development of technology initiatives; enhance exchange of information and expertise in support of FCCC. The program offers support for these processes in the form of handbooks which have been published to aid in preparing action plans, and to provide information on methane, forestry, and energy technologies. In addition an array of training workshops have been and are scheduled to offer hands on instruction to participants, expert advice is available from trained personnel, and modeling tools are available to aid in development of action plans.

  18. Comparison of Climate Preferences for Domestic and International Beach Holidays: A Case Study of Canadian Travelers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Rutty

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Coastal tourism is the largest segment of global leisure tourism and it is firmly linked to the destination’s natural resources—with climatic resources chief among them. Through observations and survey responses of beach users, studies have evaluated climatic resources for coastal tourism by quantifying optimal and unacceptable conditions. However, these studies have not taken into consideration that different forms of holidays (e.g., daytrips, short trips, main annual holiday, “once-in-a-lifetime” trip may have varying degrees of resilience to climatic conditions. This is the first study to explore whether ideal and unacceptable climatic conditions vary between domestic and international tourists. Using an in situ survey, Canadian beach users traveling domestically (n = 359 and internationally (n = 120 were examined. Key findings include statistically significant differences (p ≤ 0.05 between the two sample groups for every climate variable, with the international sample more resilient to a broader range of weather conditions, including a greater acceptance for warm temperatures, longer rainfall durations, higher wind speeds, and greater cloud cover. This study adds further insight into the complexities of evaluating climate for tourism, with implications for the demand response of tourists to climate change.

  19. The relationship between Early Holocene climate change and Neolithic settlement in central Anatolia, Turkey: current issues and prospects for future research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni Asouti

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Episodes of global climate change have traditionally been invoked as explanations for settlement re-organisation and socio-economic transformation in the prehistory of the Middle East (e.g., the Neolithic period. By focusing on the 8.2K event, this paper presents a theoretical and methodological argument against the assumption of unilinear, passive responses by prehistoric societies to global climate change, using as a case study datasets recently obtained from the Konya Plain in Central Anatolia, Turkey.

  20. Preliminary study on LGM climate simulation and the diagnosis for East Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    LGM climate study is a hot topic in international fields on global changes. Climate simulation in this study applies both common designs of 21 kaBP boundary conditions from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), including insolation, glaciation, sea surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration, and land surface conditions from Eurasia continent by compilation of geological evidence. The simulation outputs are in agreement with climate spatial patterns reconstructed by observation records. Sensitive experiment on land surface conditions shows that changes in vegetation would make significant impacts on temperature and precipitation. Particularly in the Tibetan Plateau, this change would increase in differences of winter and summer temperature, precipitation and P-E.

  1. CURRENT STUDY ON THE FUNDING SOURCES COVERAGE OF CURRENT ASSETS TO COMPANIES LISTED ON THE BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor HADA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents issues about the coverage with financing sources of current assets for 64 companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. The aim of the study is to see how to calculate indicators specific to current assets and the general framework offered as whole analysis of the financing sources of current assets. The introduction of the paper presents the objective, the research methodology and the novelties brought by this study. Further on, this study shows the various views of the authors about the concept of "current assets", financing sources of current assets, the calculation of net working capital, setting the limits of the normal working capital and determining the speed of rotation. After that was done, based on the theory, a case study was performed, for companies covered in this study. Conclusions focused on determining the final data about what was detailed in the previous paragraphs.

  2. Current state of studying precipitation acidification in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Talijan Radomir

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Basic relations between the state of air pollution and their effects on chemistry of precipitation were introduced in this paper. Changes in the composition of atmosphere were defined by numerous chemical elements and compounds different in character which also affect the phenomenon of acidification and alkaline processes. The interconnected sources of emission, relations between urban and rural, the regime of rainmeasuring system and climate elements combined as whole give us more complete image of the global phenomenon and its effects on cities as a contemporary social development first of all caused by industrialization, its dependance upon fosil sources of energy and demographic pressure. Characteristics of main pollutants were considered as well as their ability to modify atmospheric conditions, but also the influence of climate elements on those conditions, ph rainfall average value movement, seasonal and daily variations, the influence of industrial zones and agglomeration on the conditions in the area much wider than emitters.

  3. Communicating for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from a Case Study with Nature-Based Tour Operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timm, K.; Sparrow, E. B.; Pettit, E. C.; Trainor, S. F.; Taylor, K.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing temperatures are projected to have a positive effect on the length of Alaska's tourism season, but the natural attractions that tourism relies on, such as glaciers, wildlife, fish, or other natural resources, may change. In order to continue to derive benefits from these resources, nature-based tour operators may have to adapt to these changes, and communication is an essential, but poorly understood, component of the climate change adaptation process. The goal of this study was to determine how to provide useful climate change information to nature-based tour operators by answering the following questions: 1. What environmental changes do nature-based tour operators perceive? 2. How are nature-based tour operators responding to climate and environmental change? 3. What climate change information do nature-based tour operators need? To answer these questions, twenty-four nature-based tour operators representing 20 different small and medium sized businesses in Juneau, Alaska were interviewed. The results show that many of Juneau's nature-based tour operators are observing, responding to, and in some cases, actively planning for further changes in the environment. The types of responses tended to vary depending on the participants' certainty in climate change and the perceived risks to their organization. Using these two factors, this study proposes a framework to classify climate change responses for the purpose of generating meaningful information and communication processes that promote adaptation and build adaptive capacity. During the course of the study, several other valuable lessons were learned about communicating about adaptation. The results of this study demonstrate that science communication research has an important place in the practice of promoting and fostering climate change adaptation. While the focus of this study was tour operators, the lessons learned may be valuable to other organizations striving to engage unique groups in climate

  4. Assessing the importance of spatio-temporal RCM resolution when estimating sub-daily extreme precipitation under current and future climate conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Luchner, J.; Onof, C.

    2017-01-01

    The increase in extreme precipitation is likely to be one of the most significant impacts of climate change in cities due to increased pluvial flood risk. Hence, reliable information on changes in sub-daily extreme precipitation is needed for robust adaptation strategies. This study explores...

  5. Heat stress is overestimated in climate impact studies for irrigated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, Stefan; Webber, Heidi; Zhao, Gang; Ewert, Frank

    2017-05-01

    Climate change will increase the number and severity of heat waves, and is expected to negatively affect crop yields. Here we show for wheat and maize across Europe that heat stress is considerably reduced by irrigation due to surface cooling for both current and projected future climate. We demonstrate that crop heat stress impact assessments should be based on canopy temperature because simulations with air temperatures measured at standard weather stations cannot reproduce differences in crop heat stress between irrigated and rainfed conditions. Crop heat stress was overestimated on irrigated land when air temperature was used with errors becoming larger with projected climate change. Corresponding errors in mean crop yield calculated across Europe for baseline climate 1984-2013 of 0.2 Mg yr-1 (2%) and 0.6 Mg yr-1 (5%) for irrigated winter wheat and irrigated grain maize, respectively, would increase to up to 1.5 Mg yr-1 (16%) for irrigated winter wheat and 4.1 Mg yr-1 (39%) for irrigated grain maize, depending on the climate change projection/GCM combination considered. We conclude that climate change impact assessments for crop heat stress need to account explicitly for the impact of irrigation.

  6. Development, malaria and adaptation to climate change: a case study from India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, Amit; Dhiman, R C; Bhattacharya, Sumana; Shukla, P R

    2009-05-01

    India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.

  7. Development, Malaria and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, Amit; Dhiman, R. C.; Bhattacharya, Sumana; Shukla, P. R.

    2009-05-01

    India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.

  8. Experimental study of blockage of monochromatic waves by counter currents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suastika, I.K.

    1999-01-01

    Blockage of waves by a current can occur if waves are propagating on a spatially varying opposing current in which the velocity is increasing in the wave propagation direction. The ongoing waves become shorter and steeper while they are propagating against the current. Blocking occurs at the

  9. A short note on integrated assessment modeling approaches : Rejoinder to the review of "Making or breaking climate targets - The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao-Skirbekk, Shilpa; Currás, Tabaré Arroyo; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Bertram, Christoph; Bibas, Ruben; Edmonds, Jae; Johnson, Nils; Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; McCollum, David; Jiang, Kejun

    2015-01-01

    We provide a rejoinder to a review (Rosen, 2015) of our original article "Making or breaking climate targets - the AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy" (Kriegler et al., 2015a). We have a substantial disagreement with the content of the review, and feel that it is plagued b

  10. Climate and development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biswas, A.K.

    1984-01-01

    The authors review the existing knowledge on the inter-relationships between climate and patterns of development; the impact variables on water and agricultural development; and the effects of climate on human health. A case study is also given of the effect of climatic fluctuations on human population in Mesopotamia. Contents: Climate and Development; Climate and Agriculture; Climate and Water Management; Climate and Health; Effects of Climate Fluctation on Human Populations; Study of Mesopotamian Society.

  11. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  12. Optical timing studies of isolated neutron stars: Current Status

    CERN Document Server

    Mignani, R P

    2010-01-01

    Being fast rotating objects, Isolated Neutron Stars (INSs) are natural targets for high-time resolution observations across the whole electromagnetic spectrum. With the number of objects detected at optical (plus ultraviolet and infrared) wavelengths now increased to 24, high-time resolution observations of INSs at these wavelengths are becoming more and more important. While classical rotation-powered radio pulsars, like the Crab and Vela pulsars, have been the first INSs studied at high-time resolution in the optical domain, observations performed in the last two decades have unveiled potential targets in other types of INSs which are not rotation powered, although their periodic variability is still related to the neutron star rotation. In this paper I review the current status of high-time resolution observations of INSs in the optical domain for different classes of objects: rotation-powered pulsars, magnetars, thermally emitting neutron stars, and rapid radio transients, I describe their timing properti...

  13. Numerical Study on the Bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yulong; WANG Qi; SONG Jun; ZHU Xiande; GONG Xiaoqing; WU Fang

    2011-01-01

    A 1.5-layer reduced-gravity model forced by wind stress is used to study the bifurcations of the North Equatorial Current (NEC).The authors found that after removing the Ekman drift,the modelled circulations can serve well as a proxy of the SODA circulations on the σθ=25.0kgm-3 potential density surface based on available long-term reanalysis wind stress data.The modelled results show that the location of the western boundary bifurcation of the NEC depends on both zonal averaged and local zero wind stress curl latitude.The effects of the anomalous wind stress curl added in different areas are also investigated and it is found that they can change the strength of the Mindanao Eddy (ME),and then influence the interior pathway.

  14. Coastal adaptation to climate change: A case study in Durban, South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Geldenhuys, M.A.; Jonkman, S.N.; Mather, A.A.; Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B.; Stive, M.J.F.; Van Ledden, M.

    2012-01-01

    Recent research done the IPCC (2007) working groups and other organizations has sparked global concern over the possible impacts of climate change and corresponding sea level rise (SLR) upon coastal communities. In reaction studies were done (for example by Nicholls et al., 2008) to assess the vulnerability of coastal regions and get an indication of the magnitude of the potential global impacts. However, most of these studies did not address the development of climate change adaptation desig...

  15. Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale climate variables and downscaling models – A case study

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Azadeh Ahmadi; Ali Moridi; Elham Kakaei Lafdani; Ghasem Kianpisheh

    2014-10-01

    Many of the applied techniques in water resources management can be directly or indirectly influenced by hydro-climatology predictions. In recent decades, utilizing the large scale climate variables as predictors of hydrological phenomena and downscaling numerical weather ensemble forecasts has revolutionized the long-lead predictions. In this study, two types of rainfall prediction models are developed to predict the rainfall of the Zayandehrood dam basin located in the central part of Iran. The first seasonal model is based on large scale climate signals data around the world. In order to determine the inputs of the seasonal rainfall prediction model, the correlation coefficient analysis and the new Gamma Test (GT) method are utilized. Comparison of modelling results shows that the Gamma test method improves the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of modelling performance as 8% and 10% for dry and wet seasons, respectively. In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for predicting rainfall in the region has been used and its results are compared with the benchmark models such as K-nearest neighbours (KNN) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The results show better performance of the SVM model at testing stage. In the second model, statistical downscaling model (SDSM) as a popular downscaling tool has been used. In this model, using the outputs from GCM, the rainfall of Zayandehrood dam is projected under two climate change scenarios. Most effective variables have been identified among 26 predictor variables. Comparison of the results of the two models shows that the developed SVM model has lesser errors in monthly rainfall estimation. The results show that the rainfall in the future wet periods are more than historical values and it is lower than historical values in the dry periods. The highest monthly uncertainty of future rainfall occurs in March and the lowest in July.

  16. Study on the demand of climate finance for developing countries based on submitted INDC

    OpenAIRE

    Wen Zhang; Xun Pan

    2016-01-01

    The 21st Conference of Party (COP21) held in Paris at the end of 2015 has opened a new era for the joint response dealing with climate change globally, and built up a new mode of global climate governance, that is, “all Parties submit INDC – global stocktake – enhance effort of actions – all Parties resubmit INDC – finally achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention.” With 160 INDC reports (covering 188 Parties) that the UNFCCC Secretariat has currently received as research objects, this...

  17. A novel bioenergy feedstock in Latin America? Cultivation potential of Acrocomia aculeata under current and future climate conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plath, Mirco; Moser, Christine; Bailis, Rob; Brandt, Patric; Hirsch, Heidi; Klein, Alexandra Maria; Walmsley, David; Wehrden, von Henrik

    2016-01-01

    Plant oil is a key commodity in the global economy, particularly for food and bioenergy markets. However, current production practices often impair smallholder livelihoods, cause land use changes, and compete for food production. The neotropical palm Acrocomia aculeata is currently being promoted

  18. A study of nurses' ethical climate perceptions: Compromising in an uncompromising environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries, Anne; Woods, Martin

    2016-05-01

    Acting ethically, in accordance with professional and personal moral values, lies at the heart of nursing practice. However, contextual factors, or obstacles within the work environment, can constrain nurses in their ethical practice - hence the importance of the workplace ethical climate. Interest in nurse workplace ethical climates has snowballed in recent years because the ethical climate has emerged as a key variable in the experience of nurse moral distress. Significantly, this study appears to be the first of its kind carried out in New Zealand. The purpose of this study was to explore and describe how registered nurses working on a medical ward in a New Zealand hospital perceive their workplace ethical climate. This was a small, qualitative descriptive study. Seven registered nurses were interviewed in two focus group meetings. An inductive method of thematic data analysis was used for this research. Ethics approval for this study was granted by the New Zealand Ministry of Health's Central Regional Health and Disability Ethics Committee on 14 June 2012. The themes identified in the data centred on three dominant elements that - together - shaped the prevailing ethical climate: staffing levels, patient throughput and the attitude of some managers towards nursing staff. While findings from this study regarding staffing levels and the power dynamics between nurses and managers support those from other ethical climate studies, of note is the impact of patient throughput on local nurses' ethical practice. This issue has not been singled out as having a detrimental influence on ethical climates elsewhere. Moral distress is inevitable in an ethical climate where the organisation's main priorities are perceived by nursing staff to be budget and patient throughput, rather than patient safety and care. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Experimental Study on Current-Driven Domain Wall Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, T.; Yamaguchi, A.; Tanigawa, H.; Yano, K.; Kasai, S.

    2006-06-01

    Current-driven domain wall (DW) motion for a well-defined single DW in a micro-fabricated magnetic wire with submicron width was investigated by real-space observation with magnetic force microscopy. Magnetic force microscopy visualizes that a single DW introduced in a wire is displaced back and forth by positive and negative pulsed-current, respectively. Effect of the Joule heating, reduction of the threshold current density by shape control, and magnetic ratchet effect are also presented.

  20. Study of toroidal current penetration during current ramp in JIPP T-IIU with fast response Zeeman polarimeter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuramoto, H.; Hiraki, N. [Kyushu Inst. of Tech., Kitakyushu, Fukuoka (Japan); Toi, K. [and others

    1997-01-01

    The toroidal current penetration is studied in current ramp experiments of the JIPP T-IIU tokamak. The poloidal magnetic field profile in the peripheral region of a plasma (0.5 {<=} {rho} {<=} 1.0) has been measured directly with a newly developed fast response Zeeman polarimeter. The experimental results indicate that an obvious skin effect of toroidal current density is clearly observed during both the current ramp-up and ramp-down experiments. The experimentally obtained toroidal current density profiles are well described by the profiles calculated on the assumption of the neoclassical electrical conductivity. Quasi-linear {Delta}`-analysis of tearing modes for the measured current density profile is consistent with time behaviour of coherent MHD modes such as m=4/n=1 or m=3/n=1 (m: poloidal mode number, n: toroidal mode number) often observed during the current ramp-up phase. The effect of these MHD modes on current penetration during the current ramp-up discharges is studied. (author)

  1. Current state of the hydrothermal geochemistry studies at Cerro Prieto

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fausto L, J.J.; Jimenez S, M.E.; Esquer P, I.

    1981-01-01

    The current state of hydrothermal geochemistry studies being carried out at the field are reported. These studies are based on the results of chemical analysis of water samples collected during 1979 and 1980 at the geothermal wells of the area known as Cerro Prieto I, as well as from those located in the Cerro Prieto II and Cerro Prieto III areas, some of which have only recently started flowing. Data are presented on the chemical variations of the main chemical constituents dissolved in the waters, as well as on the Na/K and Na-K-Ca chemical relations and the temperatures calculated from them and from SiO/sub 2/. Fluid recharge into the reservoir and its direction of flow are interpreted from isotherm contour maps of the field prepared from Na/K and Na-K-Ca geothermometry and from concentration contour maps of some of the main chemical constituents. Well M-43 is discussed as an example of a well affected by well completion problems in its production casing. Its behavior is explained on the basis of the chemical characteristics of the produced water. The chemical changes that have taken place in some of the wells during production are explained by correlating the chemistry with the production mechanisms of the well (steam-water production rates).

  2. Current Advances in the Metabolomics Study on Lotus Seeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Mingzhi; Liu, Ting; Guo, Mingquan

    2016-01-01

    Lotus (Nelumbo nucifera), which is distributed widely throughout Asia, Australia and North America, is an aquatic perennial that has been cultivated for over 2,000 years. It is very stimulating that almost all parts of lotus have been consumed as vegetable as well as food, especially the seeds. Except for the nutritive values of lotus, there has been increasing interest in its potential as functional food due to its rich secondary metabolites, such as flavonoids and alkaloids. Not only have these metabolites greatly contributed to the biological process of lotus seeds, but also have been reported to possess multiple health-promoting effects, including antioxidant, anti-amnesic, anti-inflammatory, and anti-tumor activities. Thus, comprehensive metabolomic profiling of these metabolites is of key importance to help understand their biological activities, and other chemical biology features. In this context, this review will provide an update on the current technological platforms, and workflow associated with metabolomic studies on lotus seeds, as well as insights into the application of metabolomics for the improvement of food safety and quality, assisting breeding, and promotion of the study of metabolism and pharmacokinetics of lotus seeds; meanwhile it will also help explore new perspectives and outline future challenges in this fast-growing research subject.

  3. Solar cycle in current reanalyses: (nonlinear attribution study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kuchar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulation characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to the influence of the 11 year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques (Support Vector Regression, Neural Networks besides the traditional linear approach. The analysis was applied to several current reanalysis datasets for the 1979–2013 period, including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how this type of data resolves especially the double-peaked solar response in temperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by these anomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the lower and upper stratosphere were found to be sufficiently robust and in qualitative agreement with previous observational studies. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone datasets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim not being consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. Consequently the results obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinear approach through all datasets, suggesting that linear regression is a relevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middle atmosphere. Furthermore, the seasonal dependence of the solar response was also discussed, mainly as a source of dynamical causalities in the wave propagation characteristics in the zonal wind and the induced meridional circulation in the winter hemispheres. The hypothetical mechanism of a weaker Brewer Dobson circulation was reviewed together with discussion of polar vortex stability.

  4. Solar cycle in current reanalyses: (non)linear attribution study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchar, A.; Sacha, P.; Miksovsky, J.; Pisoft, P.

    2014-12-01

    This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulation characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to the influence of the 11 year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques (Support Vector Regression, Neural Networks) besides the traditional linear approach. The analysis was applied to several current reanalysis datasets for the 1979-2013 period, including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how this type of data resolves especially the double-peaked solar response in temperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by these anomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the lower and upper stratosphere were found to be sufficiently robust and in qualitative agreement with previous observational studies. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone datasets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim) not being consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. Consequently the results obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinear approach through all datasets, suggesting that linear regression is a relevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middle atmosphere. Furthermore, the seasonal dependence of the solar response was also discussed, mainly as a source of dynamical causalities in the wave propagation characteristics in the zonal wind and the induced meridional circulation in the winter hemispheres. The hypothetical mechanism of a weaker Brewer Dobson circulation was reviewed together with discussion of polar vortex stability.

  5. Testing coastal DRR in current and climate change scenarios - Artificial winter dune system in a highly touristic beach in the Northern Adriatic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duo, Enrico; Armaroli, Clara

    2017-04-01

    Artificial dunes are common features built along the coast of the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy) that act as temporary protections during the stormy season in order to prevent damages and inundation to the structures located on the backshore. The RER coast is in fact characterised by low sandy beaches that are exploited for tourism and where beach huts are permanently present on the rear part of the beach. While scientists and regional managers already provided proofs of the capacity of the artificial dunes to lower the hazard component, any study has never investigated their direct impacts in the current (CS) and climate change scenarios (CCS). The RISC-KIT project (www.risckit.eu) provided a methodology for testing DRRs at local level integrating hydro-morphological numerical modelling with a Bayesian Network to assess the consequences of extreme events for different scenarios. The approach was applied at the beach of Lido degli Estensi and Spina (Comacchio, Italy) in the Emilia-Romagna coast. It is a highly touristic area with concessions directly facing the sea, providing sun-and-beach tourism services during summer time, and private residences, commercial activities and hotels at the seafront. The flooding and erosion hazards were analyzed, along with their impacts. A 2DH XBeach model was built and forced with a large number of triangular storms, representative of many different representative combinations of waves' and total water level's ranges observed at regional level. Flooding and erosion results were input into a Bayesian Network which included, as feeding variables categories, deep water boundary conditions (including the CCS trigger), receptors (type and location of assets at the coast), hazard intensity affecting the receptors, impacts and DRR. Therefore, it was possible to integrate a flood damage curve and an erosion potential damage function for the analyzed receptors (beach concessions and residential/commercial buildings), in order to calculate

  6. The Role of Forests in Mitigating Climate Change – a Case Study for Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GÁLOS, Borbála

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A regional-scale case study has been carried out to assess the possible climatic benefits of forest cover increase in Europe. For the end of the 21st century (2071–2090 it has been investigated, whether the projected climate change could be reduced assuming potential afforestation of the continent. The magnitude of the biogeophysical effects of enhanced forest cover on temperature and precipitation means and extremes have been analyzed relative to the magnitude of the climate change signal applying the regional climate model REMO. The simulation results indicate that in the largest part of the temperate zone potential afforestation may reduce the projected climate change through cooler and moister conditions, thus could contribute to the mitigation of the projected climate change for the entire summer period. The largest relative effect of forest cover increase can be expected in northern Germany, Poland and Ukraine. Here, the projected precipitation decrease could be fully compensated, the temperature increase could be relieved by up to 0.5 °C, and the probability of extremely warm and dry days could be reduced. Results can help to identify the areas, where forest cover increase could be the most effective from climatic point of view. Thus they can build an important basis of the future adaptation strategies and forest policy.

  7. An exploratory study on occurrence and impact of climate change on agriculture in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varadan, R. Jayakumara; Kumar, Pramod; Jha, Girish Kumar; Pal, Suresh; Singh, Rashmi

    2015-12-01

    This study has been undertaken to examine the occurrence of climate change in Tamil Nadu, the southernmost state of India and its impact on rainfall pattern which is a primary constraint for agricultural production. Among the five sample stations examined across the state, the minimum temperature has increased significantly in Coimbatore while the same has decreased significantly in Vellore whereas both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased significantly in Madurai since 1969 with climate change occurring between late 1980s and early 1990s. As a result, the south-west monsoon has been disturbed with August rainfall increasing with more dispersion while September rainfall decreasing with less dispersion. Thus, September, the peak rainfall month of south-west monsoon before climate change, has become the monsoon receding month after climate change. Though there has been no change in the trend of the north-east monsoon, the quantity of October and November rainfall has considerably increased with increased dispersion after climate change. On the whole, south-west monsoon has decreased with decreased dispersion while north-east monsoon has increased with increased dispersion. Consequently, the season window for south-west monsoon crops has shortened while the north-east monsoon crops are left to fend against flood risk during their initial stages. Further, the incoherence in warming, climate change and rainfall impact seen across the state necessitates devising different indigenous and institutional adaptation strategies for different regions to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture.

  8. Recent Advances in Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Studies in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D. R.; Moser, S. C.; Hanemann, M.; Pittiglio, S.

    2010-12-01

    The State of California is committed to preparing periodic climate change impacts and adaptation assessments to inform and develop policy in the State. The most recent assessment was released late in 2009 and a new vulnerability and adaptation assessment is underway for release in late 2011. Both assessments use IPCC climate simulations that were statistically downscaled to a horizontal resolution of about 12 Km. The 2009 California assessment attempted to translate some impacts and adaptation options into monetary terms which introduced additional uncertainties. The 2011 California assessment combines a set of coordinated statewide and regional/local studies because many adaptation options, though informed by state and national policies, will be implemented at regional and local levels. The 2011 assessment expands the number of climate simulations that are employed in order to form a fuller estimate of the potential envelope of climate change and its impacts in the state. It also introduces a subset of dynamically downscaled scenarios to understand how well statistical relationships, developed using historical data, hold up in future climate regimes. Investigations are on-going to translate the ensemble of climate simulations and to begin to attach probabilities to the scenarios using subjective and objective techniques. In addition to advances in climate simulations and downscaling techniques, the new vulnerability and adaptation assessment also increasingly integrates social science approaches to assessing vulnerabilities and adaptation options. This presentation will illustrate results from the 2009 assessment and describe the design and initial implementation of the 2011 assessment.

  9. An exploratory study on occurrence and impact of climate change on agriculture in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varadan, R. Jayakumara; Kumar, Pramod; Jha, Girish Kumar; Pal, Suresh; Singh, Rashmi

    2017-02-01

    This study has been undertaken to examine the occurrence of climate change in Tamil Nadu, the southernmost state of India and its impact on rainfall pattern which is a primary constraint for agricultural production. Among the five sample stations examined across the state, the minimum temperature has increased significantly in Coimbatore while the same has decreased significantly in Vellore whereas both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased significantly in Madurai since 1969 with climate change occurring between late 1980s and early 1990s. As a result, the south-west monsoon has been disturbed with August rainfall increasing with more dispersion while September rainfall decreasing with less dispersion. Thus, September, the peak rainfall month of south-west monsoon before climate change, has become the monsoon receding month after climate change. Though there has been no change in the trend of the north-east monsoon, the quantity of October and November rainfall has considerably increased with increased dispersion after climate change. On the whole, south-west monsoon has decreased with decreased dispersion while north-east monsoon has increased with increased dispersion. Consequently, the season window for south-west monsoon crops has shortened while the north-east monsoon crops are left to fend against flood risk during their initial stages. Further, the incoherence in warming, climate change and rainfall impact seen across the state necessitates devising different indigenous and institutional adaptation strategies for different regions to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture.

  10. A Risk-Based Approach to Evaluating Wildlife Demographics for Management in a Changing Climate: A Case Study of the Lewis's Woodpecker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towler, Erin; Saab, Victoria A.; Sojda, Richard S.; Dickinson, Katherine; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Newlon, Karen R.

    2012-12-01

    Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a species' response to climate into conservation decisions. This is shown by taking advantage of species' response (i.e., impact) models that have been developed for a well-studied bird species of conservation concern. Specifically, we examine the current and potential impact of climate on nest survival of the Lewis's Woodpecker ( Melanerpes lewis) in two different habitats. To address climate uncertainty, climate scenarios are developed by manipulating historical weather observations to create ensembles (i.e., multiple sequences of daily weather) that reflect historical variability and potential climate change. These ensembles allow for a probabilistic evaluation of the risk posed to Lewis's Woodpecker nest survival and are used in two demographic analyses. First, the relative value of each habitat is compared in terms of nest survival, and second, the likelihood of exceeding a critical population threshold is examined. By embedding the analyses in a risk framework, we show how management choices can be made to be commensurate with a defined level of acceptable risk. The results can be used to inform habitat prioritization and are discussed in the context of an economic framework for evaluating trade-offs between management alternatives.

  11. Organizational climate and hospital nurses' caring practices: a mixed-methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roch, Geneviève; Dubois, Carl-Ardy; Clarke, Sean P

    2014-06-01

    Organizational climate in healthcare settings influences patient outcomes, but its effect on nursing care delivery remains poorly understood. In this mixed-methods study, nurse surveys (N = 292) were combined with a qualitative case study of 15 direct-care registered nurses (RNs), nursing personnel, and managers. Organizational climate explained 11% of the variation in RNs' reported frequency of caring practices. Qualitative data suggested that caring practices were affected by the interplay of organizational climate dimensions with patients and nurses characteristics. Workload intensity and role ambiguity led RNs to leave many caring practices to practical nurses and assistive personnel. Systemic interventions are needed to improve organizational climate and to support RNs' involvement in a full range of caring practices.

  12. Tradeoffs between Maize Silage Yield and Nitrate Leaching in a Mediterranean Nitrate-Vulnerable Zone under Current and Projected Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basso, Bruno; Giola, Pietro; Dumont, Benjamin; Migliorati, Massimiliano De Antoni; Cammarano, Davide; Pruneddu, Giovanni; Giunta, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    Future climatic changes may have profound impacts on cropping systems and affect the agronomic and environmental sustainability of current N management practices. The objectives of this work were to i) evaluate the ability of the SALUS crop model to reproduce experimental crop yield and soil nitrate dynamics results under different N fertilizer treatments in a farmer’s field, ii) use the SALUS model to estimate the impacts of different N fertilizer treatments on NO3- leaching under future climate scenarios generated by twenty nine different global circulation models, and iii) identify the management system that best minimizes NO3- leaching and maximizes yield under projected future climate conditions. A field experiment (maize-triticale rotation) was conducted in a nitrate vulnerable zone on the west coast of Sardinia, Italy to evaluate N management strategies that include urea fertilization (NMIN), conventional fertilization with dairy slurry and urea (CONV), and no fertilization (N0). An ensemble of 29 global circulation models (GCM) was used to simulate different climate scenarios for two Representative Circulation Pathways (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and evaluate potential nitrate leaching and biomass production in this region over the next 50 years. Data collected from two growing seasons showed that the SALUS model adequately simulated both nitrate leaching and crop yield, with a relative error that ranged between 0.4% and 13%. Nitrate losses under RCP8.5 were lower than under RCP6.0 only for NMIN. Accordingly, levels of plant N uptake, N use efficiency and biomass production were higher under RCP8.5 than RCP6.0. Simulations under both RCP scenarios indicated that the NMIN treatment demonstrated both the highest biomass production and NO3- losses. The newly proposed best management practice (BMP), developed from crop N uptake data, was identified as the optimal N fertilizer management practice since it minimized NO3- leaching and maximized biomass production over

  13. Tradeoffs between Maize Silage Yield and Nitrate Leaching in a Mediterranean Nitrate-Vulnerable Zone under Current and Projected Climate Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basso, Bruno; Giola, Pietro; Dumont, Benjamin; Migliorati, Massimiliano De Antoni; Cammarano, Davide; Pruneddu, Giovanni; Giunta, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    Future climatic changes may have profound impacts on cropping systems and affect the agronomic and environmental sustainability of current N management practices. The objectives of this work were to i) evaluate the ability of the SALUS crop model to reproduce experimental crop yield and soil nitrate dynamics results under different N fertilizer treatments in a farmer's field, ii) use the SALUS model to estimate the impacts of different N fertilizer treatments on NO3- leaching under future climate scenarios generated by twenty nine different global circulation models, and iii) identify the management system that best minimizes NO3- leaching and maximizes yield under projected future climate conditions. A field experiment (maize-triticale rotation) was conducted in a nitrate vulnerable zone on the west coast of Sardinia, Italy to evaluate N management strategies that include urea fertilization (NMIN), conventional fertilization with dairy slurry and urea (CONV), and no fertilization (N0). An ensemble of 29 global circulation models (GCM) was used to simulate different climate scenarios for two Representative Circulation Pathways (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and evaluate potential nitrate leaching and biomass production in this region over the next 50 years. Data collected from two growing seasons showed that the SALUS model adequately simulated both nitrate leaching and crop yield, with a relative error that ranged between 0.4% and 13%. Nitrate losses under RCP8.5 were lower than under RCP6.0 only for NMIN. Accordingly, levels of plant N uptake, N use efficiency and biomass production were higher under RCP8.5 than RCP6.0. Simulations under both RCP scenarios indicated that the NMIN treatment demonstrated both the highest biomass production and NO3- losses. The newly proposed best management practice (BMP), developed from crop N uptake data, was identified as the optimal N fertilizer management practice since it minimized NO3- leaching and maximized biomass production over the

  14. Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Fung, I.; Lacis, A.; Rind, D.; Lebedeff, S.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G.

    1988-01-01

    The global climate effects of time-dependent atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variations are simulated by NASA-Goddard's three-dimensional climate model II, which possesses 8 x 10-deg horizontal resolution, for the cases of a 100-year control run and three different atmospheric composition scenarios in which trace gas growth is respectively a continuation of current exponential trends, a reduced linear growth, and a rapid curtailment of emissions due to which net climate forcing no longer increases after the year 2000. The experiments begin in 1958, run to the present, and encompass measured or estimated changes in CO2, CH4, N2O, chlorofluorocarbons, and stratospheric aerosols. It is shown that the greenhouse warming effect may be clearly identifiable in the 1990s.

  15. Stakeholder participation in CDM and new climate mitigation mechanisms: China CDM case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yan; Olsen, Karen Holm

    2015-01-01

    Stakeholder participation is recognized as a key principle for effective climate governance. Climate mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), REDD +, and the Green Climate Fund (GCF) provide guidelines for local stakeholder consultation (LSC). However, little empirical research...... in CDM, REDD +, and GCF are identified. Relevant rules in China’s local policies are analysed. To understand the interaction between CDM policies and China’s local LSC rules, a selection of Chinese CDM Projects Design Documents (PDDs) are analysed, providing an overall impression of the stakeholder...... process and results. Afterwards, we focus on a single case for an in-depth understanding of LSC in practice. Results point to the weakness of current CDM LSC rules and lack of good practice guidance, e.g. regarding who to consult, what approaches to be used, and when and how consultations shall take place...

  16. Integrated hydrological SVAT model for climate change studies in Denmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollerup, M.; Refsgaard, J.; Sonnenborg, T. O.

    2010-12-01

    In a major Danish funded research project (www.hyacints.dk) a coupling is being established between the HIRHAM regional climate model code from Danish Meteorological Institute and the MIKE SHE distributed hydrological model code from DHI. The linkage between those two codes is a soil vegetation atmosphere transfer scheme, which is a module of MIKE SHE. The coupled model will be established for the entire country of Denmark (43,000 km2 land area) where a MIKE SHE based hydrological model already exists (Henriksen et al., 2003, 2008). The present paper presents the MIKE SHE SVAT module and the methodology used for parameterising and calibrating the MIKE SHE SVAT module for use throughout the country. As SVAT models previously typically have been tested for research field sites with comprehensive data on energy fluxes, soil and vegetation data, the major challenge lies in parameterisation of the model when only ordinary data exist. For this purpose annual variations of vegetation characteristics (Leaf Area Index (LAI), Crop height, Root depth and the surface albedo) for different combinations of soil profiles and vegetation types have been simulated by use of the soil plant atmosphere model Daisy (Hansen et al., 1990; Abrahamsen and Hansen, 2000) has been applied. The MIKE SHE SVAT using Daisy generated surface/soil properties model has been calibrated against existing data on groundwater heads and river discharges. Simulation results in form of evapotranspiration and percolation are compared to the existing MIKE SHE model and to observations. To analyse the use of the SVAT model in climate change impact assessments data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/) have been analysed to assess the impacts on reference evapotranspiration (calculated by the Makkink and the Penmann-Monteith equations) as well as on the individual elements in the Penmann-Monteith equation (radiation, wind speed, humidity and temperature). The differences on the

  17. Particle Image Velocimetry Study of Density Current Fronts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Juan Ezequiel

    2009-01-01

    Gravity currents are flows that occur when a horizontal density difference causes fluid to move under the action of gravity; density currents are a particular case, for which the scalar causing the density difference is conserved. Flows with a strong effect of the horizontal density difference, even if only partially driven by it--such as the…

  18. Integrating psychosocial safety climate in the JD-R model: A study amongst Malaysian workers

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd A. Idris; Dollard, Maureen F.; Winefield, Anthony H.

    2011-01-01

    Orientation: Job characteristics are well accepted as sources of burnout and engagement amongst employees; psychosocial safety climate may precede work conditions.Research purpose: We expanded the Job Demands and Resources (JD-R) model by proposing psychosocial safety climate (PSC) as a precursor to job demands and job resources. As PSC theoretically influences the working environment, the study hypothesized that PSC has an impact on performance via both health erosion (i.e. burnout) and moti...

  19. A model study of the response of dry and wet firn to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    We study the response of firn to a stepwise surface temperature change, using a firn model that includes meltwater hydrology and is driven by an idealized surface climate. We find that adjustment of dry firn (i.e. without surface melt) to surface warming takes longer than a subsequent cooling to the original, colder climate, mainly because firn compacts faster at higher firn temperatures. In contrast, wet firn adjusts faster to a surface warming than to a cooling. Increased meltwater percolat...

  20. Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

    2017-08-01

    While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

  1. Traditional climate knowledge: a case study in a peasant community of Tlaxcala, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivero-Romero, Alexis D; Moreno-Calles, Ana I; Casas, Alejandro; Castillo, Alicia; Camou-Guerrero, Andrés

    2016-08-18

    Traditional climate knowledge is a comprehensive system of insights, experiences and practices used by peasant communities to deal with the uncertainties of climate conditions affecting their livelihood. This knowledge is today as relevant in the Mesoamerican and Andean regions as it is in Europe and Asia. Our research sought to analyze the traditional knowledge about the weather and climate in a rural village of the state of Tlaxcala, Mexico, and its importance in decision-making in agriculture. Through 30 interviews and participant observation in the community during 2013, information was gathered about traditional climate and weather indicators and prediction tools, as well as rituals and agronomic and agroforestry strategies. This information allowed for the reconstruction of the community's agro-festive calendar. Data analysis was carried out with the help of the qualitative analysis software Atlas.ti (version 7). The socio-ecological importance of traditional knowledge about the climate lies in its ability to forecast local weather conditions and recognize climate variations, so vital to the food security of rural families. Knowledge about climate predictors is exchanged and passed on from generation to generation, contributing to the preservation and promotion of biodiversity. By observing the behavior of 16 animals and 12 plant species (both domestic and wild) as well as seven astronomical indicators, villagers are able to predict rain, dry weather and frosts. However, the continuity of this traditional knowledge in the community under study is now compromised by the little interest in agriculture characteristic of the younger generations, the ensuing abandonment of the countryside, the widespread economic crisis and the disappearance of animal and plant species. Traditional climate knowledge includes the understanding of weather events and weather changes at different time scales (hours, days, weeks, and seasons). The ability to interpret weather events

  2. Study on electrical current variations in electromembrane extraction process: Relation between extraction recovery and magnitude of electrical current.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, Turaj; Rahimi, Atyeh; Nojavan, Saeed

    2016-01-15

    This contribution presents an experimental approach to improve analytical performance of electromembrane extraction (EME) procedure, which is based on the scrutiny of current pattern under different extraction conditions such as using different organic solvents as supported liquid membrane, electrical potentials, pH values of donor and acceptor phases, variable extraction times, temperatures, stirring rates, different ho