Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

Science.gov (United States)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

2014-12-01

Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy

Making or breaking climate targets : The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao, Shilpa; Arroyo Currás, Tabaré; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; P. van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2015-01-01

This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition - the EU or the EU and China - embarks on immediate ambitious

Assessing climate change impacts on wheat production (a case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Valizadeh

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Climate change is one of the major challenges facing humanity in the future and effect of climate change has been detrimental to agricultural industry. The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of climate change on the maturity period, leaf area index (LAI, biomass and grain yield of wheat under future climate change for the Sistan and Baluchestan region in Iran. For this purpose, two general circulation models HadCM3 and IPCM4 under three scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 in three time periods 2020, 2050 and 2080 were used. LARS-WG model was used for simulating climatic parameters for each period and CERES-Wheat model was used to simulate wheat growth. The results of model evaluation showed that LARS-WG had appropriate prediction for climatic parameters and simulation of stochastic growing season in future climate change conditions for the studied region. Wheat growing season period in all scenarios of climate change was reduced compared to the current situation. Possible reasons were the increase in temperature rate and the accelerated growth stages of wheat. This reduction in B1 scenario was less than A1B and A2 scenarios. Maximum wheat LAI in all scenarios, except scenario A1B in 2050, is decreased compared to the current situation. Yield and biological yield of wheat in both general circulation models under all scenarios and all times were reduced in comparison with current conditions and the lowest reduction was related to B1 scenario. In general, the results showed that wheat production in the future will be affected by climate change and will decrease in the studied region. To reduce these risks, the impact of climate change mitigation strategies and management systems for crop adaptation to climate change conditions should be considered.

CITYZEN climate impact studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schutz, Martin (ed.)

2011-07-01

We have estimated the impact of climate change on the chemical composition of the troposphere due to changes in climate from current climate (2000-2010) looking 40 years ahead (2040-2050). The climate projection has been made by the ECHAM5 model and was followed by chemistry-transport modelling using a global model, Oslo CTM2 (Isaksen et al., 2005; Srvde et al., 2008), and a regional model, EMEP. In this report we focus on carbon monoxide (CO) and surface ozone (O3) which are measures of primary and secondary air pollution. In parallel we have estimated the change in the same air pollutants resulting from changes in emissions over the same time period. (orig.)

Vertical climatic belts in the Tatra Mountains in the light of current climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Łupikasza, Ewa; Szypuła, Bartłomiej

2018-04-01

The paper discusses temporal changes in the configuration of vertical climatic belts in the Tatra Mountains as a result of current climate change. Meteorological stations are scarce in the Tatra Mountains; therefore, we modelled decadal air temperatures using existing data from 20 meteorological stations and the relationship between air temperature and altitude. Air temperature was modelled separately for northern and southern slopes and for convex and concave landforms. Decadal air temperatures were additionally used to delineate five climatic belts previously distinguished by Hess on the basis of threshold values of annual air temperature. The spatial extent and location of the borderline isotherms of 6, 4, 2, 0, and - 2 °C for four decades, including 1951-1960, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010, were compared. Significant warming in the Tatra Mountains, uniform in the vertical profile, started at the beginning of the 1980s and led to clear changes in the extent and location of the vertical climatic belts delineated on the basis of annual air temperature. The uphill shift of the borderline isotherms was more prominent on southern than on northern slopes. The highest rate of changes in the extent of the climatic belts was found above the isotherm of 0 °C (moderately cold and cold belts). The cold belt dramatically diminished in extent over the research period.

Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

2013-01-01

The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

Regional Wave Climates along Eastern Boundary Currents

Science.gov (United States)

Semedo, Alvaro; Soares, Pedro

2016-04-01

Two types of wind-generated gravity waves coexist at the ocean surface: wind sea and swell. Wind sea waves are waves under growing process. These young growing waves receive energy from the overlaying wind and are strongly coupled to the local wind field. Waves that propagate away from their generation area and no longer receive energy input from the local wind are called swell. Swell waves can travel long distances across entire ocean basins. A qualitative study of the ocean waves from a locally vs. remotely generation perspective is important, since the air sea interaction processes is strongly modulated by waves and vary accordingly to the prevalence of wind sea or swell waves in the area. A detailed climatology of wind sea and swell waves along eastern boundary currents (EBC; California Current, Canary Current, in the Northern Hemisphere, and Humboldt Current, Benguela Current, and Western Australia Current, in the Southern Hemisphere), based on the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-Interim reanalysis will be presented. The wind regime along EBC varies significantly from winter to summer. The high summer wind speeds along EBC generate higher locally generated wind sea waves, whereas lower winter wind speeds in these areas, along with stronger winter extratropical storms far away, lead to a predominance of swell waves there. In summer, the coast parallel winds also interact with coastal headlands, increasing the wind speed through a process called "expansion fan", which leads to an increase in the height of locally generated waves downwind of capes and points. Hence the spatial patterns of the wind sea or swell regional wave fields are shown to be different from the open ocean along EBC, due to coastal geometry and fetch dimensions. Swell waves will be shown to be considerably more prevalent and to carry more energy in winter along EBC, while in summer locally generated wind sea waves are either more comparable to swell waves or

Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes

KAUST Repository

Wilson, S. K.; Adjeroud, M.; Bellwood, D. R.; Berumen, Michael L.; Booth, D.; Bozec, Y.-M.; Chabanet, P.; Cheal, A.; Cinner, J.; Depczynski, M.; Feary, D. A.; Gagliano, M.; Graham, N. A. J.; Halford, A. R.; Halpern, B. S.; Harborne, A. R.; Hoey, A. S.; Holbrook, S. J.; Jones, G. P.; Kulbiki, M.; Letourneur, Y.; De Loma, T. L.; McClanahan, T.; McCormick, M. I.; Meekan, M. G.; Mumby, P. J.; Munday, P. L.; Ohman, M. C.; Pratchett, M. S.; Riegl, B.; Sano, M.; Schmitt, R. J.; Syms, C.

2010-01-01

Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef

Climate change and indigenous peoples: A synthesis of current impacts and experiences

Science.gov (United States)

Norton-Smith, Kathryn; Lynn, Kathy; Chief, Karletta; Cozetto, Karen; Donatuto, Jamie; Hiza, Margaret; Kruger, Linda; Maldonado, Julie; Viles, Carson; Whyte, Kyle P.

2016-01-01

A growing body of literature examines the vulnerability, risk, resilience, and adaptation of indigenous peoples to climate change. This synthesis of literature brings together research pertaining to the impacts of climate change on sovereignty, culture, health, and economies that are currently being experienced by Alaska Native and American Indian tribes and other indigenous communities in the United States. The knowledge and science of how climate change impacts are affecting indigenous peoples contributes to the development of policies, plans, and programs for adapting to climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This report defines and describes the key frameworks that inform indigenous understandings of climate change impacts and pathways for adaptation and mitigation, namely, tribal sovereignty and self-determination, culture and cultural identity, and indigenous community health indicators. It also provides a comprehensive synthesis of climate knowledge, science, and strategies that indigenous communities are exploring, as well as an understanding of the gaps in research on these issues. This literature synthesis is intended to make a contribution to future efforts such as the 4th National Climate Assessment, while serving as a resource for future research, tribal and agency climate initiatives, and policy development.

Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change Detection and Attribution Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Santer, B. D.

2017-12-01

It has been claimed that the treatment and discussion of key uncertainties in climate science is "confined to hushed sidebar conversations at scientific conferences". This claim is demonstrably incorrect. Climate change detection and attribution studies routinely consider key uncertainties in observational climate data, as well as uncertainties in model-based estimates of natural variability and the "fingerprints" in response to different external forcings. The goal is to determine whether such uncertainties preclude robust identification of a human-caused climate change fingerprint. It is also routine to investigate the impact of applying different fingerprint identification strategies, and to assess how detection and attribution results are impacted by differences in the ability of current models to capture important aspects of present-day climate. The exploration of the uncertainties mentioned above will be illustrated using examples from detection and attribution studies with atmospheric temperature and moisture.

Water deficit effects on maize yields modeled under current and greenhouse climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muchow, R.C.; Sinclair, T.R.

1991-01-01

The availability of water imposes one of the major limits on rainfed maize (Zea mays L.) productivity. This analysis was undertaken in an attempt to quantify the effects of limited water on maize growth and yield by extending a simple, mechanistic model in which temperature regulates crop development and intercepted solar radiation is used to calculate crop biomass accumulation. A soil water budget was incorporated into the model by accounting for inputs from rainfall and irrigation, and water use by soil evaporation and crop transpiration. The response functions of leaf area development and crop gas exchange to the soil water budget were developed from experimental studies. The model was used to interpret a range of field experiments using observed daily values of temperature, solar radiation, and rainfall or irrigation, where water deficits of varying durations developed at different stages of growth. The relative simplicity of the model and its robustness in simulating maize yields under a range of water-availability conditions allows the model to be readily used for studies of crop performance under alternate conditions. One such study, presented here, was a yield assessment for rainfed maize under possible greenhouse climates where temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration were increased. An increase in temperature combined with decreased rainfall lowered grain yield, although the increase in crop water use efficiency associated with elevated CO 2 concentration ameliorated the response to the greenhouse climate. Grain yields for the greenhouse climates as compared to current conditions increased, or decreased only slightly, except when the greenhouse climate was assumed to result in severly decreased rainfall

Regional and historical factors supplement current climate in shaping global forest canopy height

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Jian; Nielsen, Scott; Mao, Lingfeng

2016-01-01

on Light Detection and Ranging-derived maximum forest canopy height (Hmax) to test hypotheses relating Hmax to current climate (water availability, ambient energy and water–energy dynamics), regional evolutionary and biogeographic history, historical climate change, and human disturbance. We derived Hmax...... biogeographic regions, supporting the role of regional evolutionary and biogeographic history in structuring broad-scale patterns in canopy height. Furthermore, there were divergent relationships between climate and Hmax between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, consistent with historical evolutionary...... contingencies modulating these relationships. Historical climate change was also related to Hmax, albeit not as strongly, with shorter canopy heights where late-Quaternary climate has been less stable. In contrast, human disturbance was only weakly related to Hmax at the scale (55 km) examined here. Synthesis...

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

2017-02-07

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

Science.gov (United States)

Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

2017-01-01

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K.

2006-01-01

The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat

Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K. [Climate Risk Pty Limited, Fairlight (Australia)

2006-07-01

The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat.

Wildfire Impacts Upon US Air Quality for Current and Future Climate Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B. K.; Tao, I.; Avise, J. C.; Stavros, E. N.; Strand, T. T.; McKenzie, D.; Guenther, A. B.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Salathe, E. P.; Zhang, Y.

2011-12-01

Wildfires can have an important impact on regional air quality as they are large and intermittent sources of primary particulates, secondary aerosols, and ozone precursors. As part of an ongoing analysis on the effects of global change upon US air quality, we report results for current and future decade simulations of the inter-relationship among climate change, wildfires and air quality. The results are reported for the Northwest, Southwest, and Central Rockies regions of the US. Meteorological fields from the ECHAM5 global climate model for the IPCC A1B scenario were downscaled using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model to drive the MEGAN biogenic emissions model, a stochastic fire occurrence model, Fire Simulation Builder (FSB), and the CMAQ chemical transport model to predict ozone and aerosol concentrations. Simulations were completed for two nested domains covering most of the northern hemisphere from eastern Asia to North America at 220 km horizontal resolution (hemispheric domain) and covering the continental US at 36 km resolution (CONUS). Sensitivity studies were conducted for representative summer periods with fire occurrence generated from FSB within the current (1995-2004) and future decade (2045-2054) and using current decade historical fire data obtained from the Bureau of Land Management Database. Results are reported in terms of the effects of global change upon fire occurrence, fire plume transport and PM and ozone pollutant levels.

Systematic review of current efforts to quantify the impacts of climate change on undernutrition.

Science.gov (United States)

Phalkey, Revati K; Aranda-Jan, Clara; Marx, Sabrina; Höfle, Bernhard; Sauerborn, Rainer

2015-08-18

Malnutrition is a challenge to the health and productivity of populations and is viewed as one of the five largest adverse health impacts of climate change. Nonetheless, systematic evidence quantifying these impacts is currently limited. Our aim was to assess the scientific evidence base for the impact of climate change on childhood undernutrition (particularly stunting) in subsistence farmers in low- and middle-income countries. A systematic review was conducted to identify peer-reviewed and gray full-text documents in English with no limits for year of publication or study design. Fifteen manuscripts were reviewed. Few studies use primary data to investigate the proportion of stunting that can be attributed to climate/weather variability. Although scattered and limited, current evidence suggests a significant but variable link between weather variables, e.g., rainfall, extreme weather events (floods/droughts), seasonality, and temperature, and childhood stunting at the household level (12 of 15 studies, 80%). In addition, we note that agricultural, socioeconomic, and demographic factors at the household and individual levels also play substantial roles in mediating the nutritional impacts. Comparable interdisciplinary studies based on primary data at a household level are urgently required to guide effective adaptation, particularly for rural subsistence farmers. Systemization of data collection at the global level is indispensable and urgent. We need to assimilate data from long-term, high-quality agricultural, environmental, socioeconomic, health, and demographic surveillance systems and develop robust statistical methods to establish and validate causal links, quantify impacts, and make reliable predictions that can guide evidence-based health interventions in the future.

Introduction. Progress in Earth science and climate studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, J Michael T

2008-12-28

In this introductory paper, I review the 'visions of the future' articles prepared by top young scientists for the second of the two Christmas 2008 Triennial Issues of Phil. Trans. R. Soc.A, devoted respectively to astronomy and Earth science. Topics covered in the Earth science issue include: trace gases in the atmosphere; dynamics of the Antarctic circumpolar current; a study of the boundary between the Earth's rocky mantle and its iron core; and two studies of volcanoes and their plumes. A final section devoted to ecology and climate covers: the mathematical modelling of plant-soil interactions; the effects of the boreal forests on the Earth's climate; the role of the past palaeoclimate in testing and calibrating today's numerical climate models; and the evaluation of these models including the quantification of their uncertainties.

Will current probabilistic climate change information, as such, improve adaptation?

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, A.; Smith, L. A.

2012-04-01

Probabilistic climate scenarios are currently being provided to end users, to employ as probabilities in adaptation decision making, with the explicit suggestion that they quantify the impacts of climate change relevant to a variety of sectors. These "probabilities" are, however, rather sensitive to the assumptions in, and the structure of the modelling approaches used to generate them. It is often argued that stakeholders require probabilistic climate change information to adequately evaluate and plan adaptation pathways. On the other hand, some circumstantial evidence suggests that on the ground decision making rarely uses well defined probability distributions of climate change as inputs. Nevertheless it is within this context of probability distributions of climate change that we discuss possible drawbacks of supplying information that, while presented as robust and decision relevant, , is in fact unlikely to be so due to known flaws both in the underlying models and in the methodology used to "account for" those known flaws. How might one use a probability forecast that is expected to change in the future, not due to a refinement in our information but due to fundamental flaws in its construction? What then are the alternatives? While the answer will depend on the context of the problem at hand, a good approach will be strongly informed by the timescale of the given planning decision, and the consideration of all the non-climatic factors that have to be taken into account in the corresponding risk assessment. Using a water resources system as an example, we illustrate an alternative approach to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today.

Review on Climate Control Chamber studies in studying plant environment interaction under climate change scenarios

OpenAIRE

Geethalakshmi, V.; Bhuvaneshwari, K.; Lakshmanan, A.

2011-01-01

This Technical brief summarizes some of the studies conducted on rice using a climate control chamber and outlines the studies that will be undertaken in the Climate Control Chamber facility that has been established at the Agro Climate Research Center at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore. In recent years a numbers of technologies have been developed to study the impact of climate change on agricultural systems. Crop response to climate change could be studied by using a climate ...

Case Studies on Climate Change and World Heritage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Colette, A.

2007-07-01

The UNESCO World Heritage Centre (WHC) initiated an assessment of the impacts of climate change on World Heritage in 2005, after the World Heritage Committee noted that 'the impacts of climate change are affecting many and are likely to affect many more World Heritage properties, both natural and cultural in the years to come'. A meeting of experts was convened in March 2006 bringing together over 50 representatives from the States Parties to the World Heritage Convention, various international organizations, non-governmental organizations, the Advisory Bodies to the World Heritage Committee, and academic and scientific experts, to discuss current and future impacts of climate change on World Heritage sites. The outcome of this initiative included a 'Report on Predicting and Managing the Effects of Climate Change on World Heritage', as well as a 'Strategy to Assist States Parties to Implement Appropriate Management Responses' which were endorsed by the World Heritage Committee at its 30th session in July 2006, Vilnius, Lithuania. The outcome of this work has shown that it is timely to develop and implement appropriate management responses to protect World Heritage in the face of climate change. The solutions to global warming are the subject of continuing debate. Some of these measures, beyond the scope of the World Heritage Convention, are discussed under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). But although climate change is a global challenge, there are many adaptation and preventive measures that can be taken at the local scale, i.e. at the level of the World Heritage sites. Studies are currently being conducted at several World Heritage sites to monitor climate change impacts and plan appropriate adaptation measures. But the World Heritage network is also a useful tool to share and promote lessons learnt and best practices, as well as to raise awareness regarding climate change impacts

Potential effects of climate change on a marine invasion: The importance of current context

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabelle M. CÔTÉ, Stephanie J. GREEN

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally. There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem. Here, we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator, the Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles. We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour: pelagic larval duration, because of its link to dispersal potential, and prey consumption rate, because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey. Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory, we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures, with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance. Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large, predicted reductions are, on average, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfish in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local retention of larvae, local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change. Increasing temperature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey, leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass. However, the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases (and hence overall prey consumption rates on invaded reefs. Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that, at least for the lionfish invasion, the threat is clear and present, rather than future [Current Zoology 58 (1: 1–8, 2012].

The Contribution of Soils to North America's Current and Future Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Thornton, P. E.; Lajtha, K.; Bailey, V. L.; Shrestha, G.; Jastrow, J. D.; Torn, M. S.

2015-12-01

This presentation will cover key aspects of the terrestrial soil carbon cycle in North America and the US for the upcoming State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCRII). SOCCRII seeks to summarize how natural processes and human interactions affect the global carbon cycle, how socio-economic trends affect greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and how ecosystems are influenced by and respond to greenhouse gas emissions, management decisions, and concomitant climate effects. Here, we will summarize the contemporary understanding of carbon stocks, fluxes, and drivers in the soil ecosystem compartment. We will highlight recent advances in modeling the magnitude of soil carbon stocks and fluxes, as well as the importance of remaining uncertainties in predicting soil carbon cycling and its relationship with climate. Attention will be given to the role of uncertainties in predicting future fluxes from soils, and how those uncertainties vary by region and ecosystem. We will also address how climate feedbacks and management decisions can enhance or minimize future climatic effects based on current understanding and observations, and will highlight select research needs to improve our understanding of the balance of carbon in soils in North America.

The effect of climate change on rural livestock farming: case study of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The current paper further identifies the effect of climate change (e.g. drought, temperature and rainfall) on farmers and key stakeholders while establishing how they handle challenges associated with climate change in the study district. Data were collected from 22 participants, including officials associated with Veterinary ...

Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rulin Wang

Full Text Available Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China.Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation.The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100 was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%, mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%, precipitation in May (11.5% and minimum temperature in October (10.8%, had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa.The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Rulin; Li, Qing; He, Shisong; Liu, Yuan; Wang, Mingtian; Jiang, Gan

2018-01-01

Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China. Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa. The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

Science.gov (United States)

Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

2017-12-01

A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

Little auks buffer the impact of current Arctic climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grémillet, David; Welcker, Jorg; Karnovsky, Nina J.

2012-01-01

Climate models predict a multi-degree warming of the North Atlantic in the 21st century. A research priority is to understand the impact of such changes upon marine organisms. With 40-80 million individuals, planktivorous little auks (Alle alle) are an essential component of pelagic food webs...... in this region that are potentially highly susceptible to climatic effects. Using an integrative study of their behaviour, physiology and fitness at three study sites, we evaluated the impact of ocean warming on little auks across the Greenland Sea in 2005-2007. Contrary to our hypothesis, the birds responded...... to a wide range of sea surface temperatures via plasticity of their foraging behaviour, allowing them to maintain their fitness levels unchanged. Predicted effects of climate change are significantly attenuated by such plasticity, confounding attempts to forecast future impacts of climate change by envelope...

Using climate model simulations to assess the current climate risk to maize production

Science.gov (United States)

Kent, Chris; Pope, Edward; Thompson, Vikki; Lewis, Kirsty; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick

2017-05-01

The relationship between the climate and agricultural production is of considerable importance to global food security. However, there has been relatively little exploration of climate-variability related yield shocks. The short observational yield record does not adequately sample natural inter-annual variability thereby limiting the accuracy of probability assessments. Focusing on the United States and China, we present an innovative use of initialised ensemble climate simulations and a new agro-climatic indicator, to calculate the risk of severe water stress. Combined, these regions provide 60% of the world’s maize, and therefore, are crucial to global food security. To probe a greater range of inter-annual variability, the indicator is applied to 1400 simulations of the present day climate. The probability of severe water stress in the major maize producing regions is quantified, and in many regions an increased risk is found compared to calculations from observed historical data. Analysis suggests that the present day climate is also capable of producing unprecedented severe water stress conditions. Therefore, adaptation plans and policies based solely on observed events from the recent past may considerably under-estimate the true risk of climate-related maize shocks. The probability of a major impact event occurring simultaneously across both regions—a multi-breadbasket failure—is estimated to be up to 6% per decade and arises from a physically plausible climate state. This novel approach highlights the significance of climate impacts on crop production shocks and provides a platform for considerably improving food security assessments, in the present day or under a changing climate, as well as development of new risk based climate services.

An Overview of Hydropower Reservoirs in Brazil: Current Situation, Future Perspectives and Impacts of Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viviane de Souza Dias

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Global climate change, related to the greenhouse gases emission, impacts hydroelectric power generation mainly due to the increase in air temperature and changes in the precipitation patterns. As a consequence, it affects basin evapotranspiration process, runoff, sediment transport as well as evaporation of reservoirs. This study analysed the current and future Brazilian context of hydroelectric reservoirs and investigated the potential impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and possible mitigation adjustments, giving relevant examples from around the world. Moreover, it is key to consider other factors that influence the availability of water resources such as: (a upstream development of reservoirs, mainly the development of agricultural systems, which can contribute to increased water demand; (b changes in land use, which can have an impact on soil degradation and sediment transport. Hydroelectric dams are a possible alternative to mitigate the impacts of climate change considering that those impacts could generate the need of adaptive actions. The assessment of climate change impacts’ projections anticipates possible future scenarios and can assist in strategic planning together with the definition of adaptive operational policies.

The regional species richness and genetic diversity of Arctic vegetation reflect both past glaciations and current climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stewart, L.; Alsos, Inger G.; Bay, Christian

2016-01-01

Aim The Arctic has experienced marked climatic differences between glacial and interglacial periods and is now subject to a rapidly warming climate. Knowledge of the effects of historical processes on current patterns of diversity may aid predictions of the responses of vegetation to future climate...... species richness of the vascular plant flora of 21 floristic provinces and examined local species richness in 6215 vegetation plots distributed across the Arctic. We assessed levels of genetic diversity inferred from amplified fragment length polymorphism variation across populations of 23 common Arctic...... size compared to the models of bryophyte and lichen richness. Main conclusion Our study suggests that imprints of past glaciations in Arctic vegetation diversity patterns at the regional scale are still detectable today. Since Arctic vegetation is still limited by post-glacial migration lag...

A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus).

Science.gov (United States)

Shabani, Farzin; Shafapour Tehrany, Mahyat; Solhjouy-Fard, Samaneh; Kumar, Lalit

2018-01-01

Aedes albopictus , the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus ? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i) regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii) regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF), together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers), to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC) using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs), Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically, according

A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farzin Shabani

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Aedes albopictus, the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF, together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers, to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs, Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically

Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

1988-04-01

The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

The current investment climate for midstream gas processing assets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brouwer, R.J.

1999-01-01

Topics discussed in this paper dealing with the current investment climate for midstream gas processing assets include: (1) strategic reasons to retain or divest midstream assets, (2) available options for midstream asset divestment, (3) midstream market fundamentals, and (4) financial performance of midstream companies. There are some 700 gas plants in Alberta at present, of which about 20 per cent are owned by midstream companies . About one half of the plants are smaller than 12.5 MMCFD which represent inefficient use of resources; a clear indication that there are substantial opportunities for consolidation. 1 tab., 4 figs

Anticipating impacts of climate change on fish habitat to support decisionmaking in hydropower licensing: a climate risk study for the Hiram Dam, Saco River, ME

Science.gov (United States)

Lagron, C. S.; Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.

2016-12-01

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issues licenses for non-federal hydropower projects through its Integrated Licensing Process (ILP). Through this multi-stage, multi-year decision process, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) can request studies needed to prescribe license conditions to mitigate dams' effects on trust resources, e.g. fish passages and flow requirements. NMFS must understand the combined effects of hydropower projects and climate change to fulfill its mandates to maintain fisheries and protected species. Although 30-50 year hydropower licenses and renewals are within the time frame of anticipated risks from changing climate, FERC has consistently rejected NMFS' climate study requests, stating climate science is "too uncertain," and therefore not actionable. The ILP is an opportunity to incorporate climate change risks in this decision process, and to make decisions now to avoid failures later in the system regarding both hydropower reliability (the concern of FERC and the applicant) and ecosystem health (NMFS's concern). NMFS has partnered with climate scientists at the ESRL Physical Sciences Division to co-produce a climate study request for the relicensing of the Hiram Project on the Saco River in Southern Maine. The Saco hosts Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) runs which are not currently self-sustaining. This presentation will describe basin-to-basin variability in both historic river analyses (Hydro-Climate Data Network, HCDN) and projected hydrologic responses of New England rivers to climate forcings using statewide Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) demonstrate the need to develop Saco-specific watershed models. Furthermore, although methods for projecting fishery-relevant metrics (heat waves, flood annual exceedance probabilities) have been proven in nearby basins, this modeling has not been conducted at fishery-relevant thresholds. Climate study requests are an example of bridging between science and

Interviewing German scientists on climate change. A preliminary study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ungar, S. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung; Toronto Univ., Scarborough (Canada)

2004-07-01

This study is based on in-depth interviews with 25 German scientists at the Coastal Research Institute of the GKSS-Forschungszentrum. It takes as its context the differential rhetoric and planning on climate change found in Germany and North America. The interviews try to throw light on the early German decision to address climate change, and to assess the current attitudes, beliefs and experiences of these German scientists. The results reveal a degree of complacency among these scientists, including a sense that Germany is not particularly threatened by climate change and has the capacity to adapt to it. The scientists are critical of inaction among the German population, but themselves uphold a ''light version'' of the precautionary principle. They have great difficulty translating the idea of climate change into popular metaphors that can be grasped by children. They strongly reject any link between German leadership on the issue as a result of a sense of guilt about the German past. (orig.)

Climate change studies for Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Snelgrove, K.; Roberts, J.; Organ, M.

2008-01-01

Change is a constant for hydroelectric utilities. These organizations are continually faced with challenges involving future change. Traditionally, forecasting load has been essential but more and more there is evidence that climate change planning will be required to forecast supply issues as well. Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro (NLH) are initiating a study of climate change and its implications for operations and planning of hydroelectric and wind energy projects. In collaboration with Memorial University's Faculty of Engineering, NLH will begin this investigation by quantifying changes to volumes and timing of water inflows to their hydroelectric reservoirs and its impact on future operations. As the work continues, these studies may extend to climate induced load forecasting, the implications of icing and other climate extremes on infrastructure, and the integration of climate dependent alternate energy sources such as wind into the NLH system. NLH's group of companies is the 4th largest utility in Canada in terms of installed capacity at 7,289 MW. In addition to thermal generation, NLH operates 10 hydroelectric generating stations including the Churchill Falls facility at 5,428 MW, which boasts the second largest underground powerhouse in the world. Plans are currently underway to add a further 2,824 MW of installed capacity through the Lower Churchill Project as well as a mix of other conventional and alternate energy sources envisioned by the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador's Energy Plan. Many of these assets, especially hydro and wind energy generation are tightly coupled to the vagaries of the climate systems. Given these dependencies it is prudent to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty associated with future climate impacts. This presentation will summarize some of the very preliminary activities that have taken place to date, summarize literature that is available regarding climate projections for Newfoundland and Labrador and discuss

Leishmaniasis and Climate Change—Case Study: Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oscar Daniel Salomón

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Vector-borne diseases closely associated with the environment, such as leishmaniases, have been a usual argument about the deleterious impact of climate change on public health. From the biological point of view interaction of different variables has different and even conflicting effects on the survival of vectors and the probability transmission of pathogens. The results on ecoepidemiology of leishmaniasis in Argentina related to climate variables at different scales of space and time are presented. These studies showed that the changes in transmission due to change or increase in frequency and intensity of climatic instability were expressed through changes in the probability of vector-human reservoir effective contacts. These changes of contact in turn are modulated by both direct effects on the biology and ecology of the organisms involved, as by perceptions and changes in the behavior of the human communities at risk. Therefore, from the perspective of public health and state policy, and taking into account the current nonlinear increased velocity of climate change, we concluded that discussing the uncertainties of large-scale models will have lower impact than to develop-validate mitigation strategies to be operative at local level, and compatibles with sustainable development, conservation biodiversity, and respect for cultural diversity.

Climate change studies in Estonia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kallaste, Tiit; Kuldna, Piret

1998-01-01

The present collection of papers was compiled on the basis of research papers written by Estonian scientists during the United Nations Environment Programme and Global Environment Facility initiated climate change programme Country Case Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Assessments. The Estonian country case study was finally approved by UNEP/GEF in February 1996, practical work started in September. The priorities for Estonia in the study of global climate change impacts and adaptation have been in the following areas of interest: agriculture, water resources, forestry, the Baltic Sea and Estonian coast, also historical climate and socioeconomic background together with the biggest producer of greenhouse gases, the energy sector. Those areas have been studied more carefully during the one and half year period of the project

Simulating the Current Water Cycle with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Brecht, A. S.; Urata, R. A.; Montmessin, F.

2017-12-01

The water cycle is a critical component of the current Mars climate system, and it is now widely recognized that water ice clouds significantly affect the nature of the simulated water cycle. Two processes are key to implementing clouds in a Mars global climate model (GCM): the microphysical processes of formation and dissipation, and their radiative effects on atmospheric heating/cooling rates. Together, these processes alter the thermal structure, change the atmospheric dynamics, and regulate inter-hemispheric transport. We have made considerable progress using the NASA Ames Mars GCM to simulate the current-day water cycle with radiatively active clouds. Cloud fields from our baseline simulation are in generally good agreement with observations. The predicted seasonal extent and peak IR optical depths are consistent MGS/TES observations. Additionally, the thermal response to the clouds in the aphelion cloud belt (ACB) is generally consistent with observations and other climate model predictions. Notably, there is a distinct gap in the predicted clouds over the North Residual Cap (NRC) during local summer, but the clouds reappear in this simulation over the NRC earlier than the observations indicate. Polar clouds are predicted near the seasonal CO2 ice caps, but the column thicknesses of these clouds are generally too thick compared to observations. Our baseline simulation is dry compared to MGS/TES-observed water vapor abundances, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. These areas of disagreement appear to be a consistent with other current water cycle GCMs. Future avenues of investigation will target improving our understanding of what controls the vertical extent of clouds and the apparent seasonal evolution of cloud particle sizes within the ACB.

Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, J.M. [University of Hamburg (Germany). Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change; Maddison, D.J. [University of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark). Economics Institute; Centre for Cultural Economics and Management, London (United Kingdom); Tol, R.S.J. [University of Hamburg (Germany). Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change; Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands). Institute for Environmental Studies; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh (United States). Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change

2005-10-01

The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here, a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gasp. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes un population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however, the change from climate change is smaller than from population and income changes. (author)

Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: Current UV Index Forecast Map

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Service NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team Disclaimer

Changes in the world rivers' discharge projected from an updated high resolution dataset of current and future climate zones

Science.gov (United States)

Santini, Monia; di Paola, Arianna

2015-12-01

In this paper, an updated global map of the current climate zoning and of its projections, according to the Köppen-Geiger classification, is first provided. The map at high horizontal resolution (0.5° × 0.5°), representative of the current (i.e. 1961-2005) conditions, is based on the Climate Research Unit dataset holding gridded series of historical observed temperature and precipitation, while projected conditions rely on the simulated series, for the same variables, by the General Circulation Model CMCC-CM. Modeled variables were corrected for their bias and then projections of climate zoning were generated for the medium term (2006-2050) and long term (2056-2100) future periods, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Results show that Equatorial and Arid climates will spread at the expenses of Snow and Polar climates, with the Warm Temperate experiencing more moderate increase. Maps of climate zones are valuable for a wide range of studies on climate change and its impacts, especially those regarding the water cycle that is strongly regulated by the combined conditions of precipitation and temperature. As example of large scale hydrological applications, in this work we tested and implemented a spatial statistical procedure, the geographically weighted regression among climate zones' surface and mean annual discharge (MAD) at hydrographic basin level, to quantify likely changes in MAD for the main world rivers monitored through the Global Runoff Data Center database. The selected river basins are representative of more than half of both global superficial freshwater resources and world's land area. Globally, a decrease in MAD is projected both in the medium term and long term, while spatial differences highlight how some areas require efforts to avoid consequences of amplified water scarcity, while other areas call for strategies to take the opportunity from the expected increase in water availability. Also the fluctuations of trends between the

Usage of virtual research laboratory "Climate" prototype for Northern Eurasia climatic and ecological studies

Science.gov (United States)

Gordov, Evgeny; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara

2015-04-01

Reported are some results of Northern Eurasia regional climatic and ecological monitoring and modeling obtained using recently developed prototype of thematic virtual research laboratory (VRL) Climate (http://climate.scert.ru/). The prototype integrates distributed thematic data storage, processing and analysis systems and set of models of complex climatic and environmental processes run on supercomputers. Its specific tools are aimed at high resolution rendering on-going climatic processes occurring in Northern Eurasia and reliable and found prognoses of their dynamics for selected sets of future mankind activity scenario. Currently VRL integrates on the base of geoportal the WRF and «Planet Simulator» models, basic reanalysis, meteorological stations data and support profound statistical analysis of storage and modeled on demand data. In particular, one can run the integrated models, preprocess modeling results data, using dedicated modules for numerical processing perform analysys and visualize obtained results. The prototype can provide specialists involved into multidisciplinary research projects with reliable and practical instruments for integrated research of climate and ecosystems changes on global and regional scales. With its help even a user without programming skills would be able to process and visualize multidimensional observational and model data through unified web-interface using a web-browser. Location, frequency and magnitude of observed in Siberia extremes has been studied using recently added prototype functionality allowing detailed statistical analysis studies of regional climatic extremes. Firstly it was shown that ECMWF ERA Interim Reanalysis data are closest to near surface temperature time series measured at regional meteorological stations. Statistical analysis of ERA Interim daily temperature time series (1979-2012) indicates the asymmetric changes in distribution tails of such extreme indices as warm/cold days/nights. Namely, the

ADAPTATION PROCESS TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE- AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ghulam Mustafa

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Climatic variations affect agriculture in a process with no known end means. Adaptations help to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. Unfortunately, adaptation has never been considered as a process. Current study empirically identified the adaptation process and its different stages. Moreover, little is known about the farm level adaptation strategies and their determinants. The study in hand found farm level adaptation strategies and determinants of these strategies. The study identified three stages of adaptation i.e. perception, intention and adaptation. It was found that 71.4% farmers perceived about climate change, 58.5% intended to adapt while 40.2% actually adapted. The study further explored that farmers do adaptations through changing crop variety (56.3%, changing planting dates (44.6%, tree plantation (37.5%, increase/conserve irrigation (39.3% and crop diversification (49.2%. The adaptation strategies used by farmers were autonomous and mostly determined perception to climate change. It was also noted that the adaptation strategies move in a circular process and once they are adapted they remained adapted for a longer period of time. Some constraints slow the adaptation process so; we recommend farmers should be given price incentives to speed-up this process.

Applicability of the Organisational Climate Description Questionnaire--Rutgers Elementary: A South African Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Vos, D.; Ellis, S. M.; van der Westhuizen, Philip C.; Mentz, P. J.

2013-01-01

The Organisational Climate Description Questionnaire--Rutgers Elementary (OCDQ--RE) was used to determine the current organizational climate of primary schools in North-West Province, South Africa. This questionnaire evaluates the actions of principals and educators; the current organizational climate in primary schools can be determined from the…

Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes

KAUST Repository

Wilson, S. K.

2010-02-26

Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef fishes were invited to submit five questions that, if addressed, would improve our understanding of climate change effects on coral reef fishes. Thirty-three scientists provided 155 questions, and 32 scientists scored these questions in terms of: (i) identifying a knowledge gap, (ii) achievability, (iii) applicability to a broad spectrum of species and reef habitats, and (iv) priority. Forty-two per cent of the questions related to habitat associations and community dynamics of fish, reflecting the established effects and immediate concern relating to climate-induced coral loss and habitat degradation. However, there were also questions on fish demographics, physiology, behaviour and management, all of which could be potentially affected by climate change. Irrespective of their individual expertise and background, scientists scored questions from different topics similarly, suggesting limited bias and recognition of a need for greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Presented here are the 53 highest-scoring unique questions. These questions should act as a guide for future research, providing a basis for better assessment and management of climate change impacts on coral reefs and associated fish communities.

Current and future assessments of soil erosion by water on the Tibetan Plateau based on RUSLE and CMIP5 climate models.

Science.gov (United States)

Teng, Hongfen; Liang, Zongzheng; Chen, Songchao; Liu, Yong; Viscarra Rossel, Raphael A; Chappell, Adrian; Yu, Wu; Shi, Zhou

2018-04-18

Soil erosion by water is accelerated by a warming climate and negatively impacts water security and ecological conservation. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced warming at a rate approximately twice that observed globally, and heavy precipitation events lead to an increased risk of erosion. In this study, we assessed current erosion on the TP and predicted potential soil erosion by water in 2050. The study was conducted in three steps. During the first step, we used the Revised Universal Soil Equation (RUSLE), publicly available data, and the most recent earth observations to derive estimates of annual erosion from 2002 to 2016 on the TP at 1-km resolution. During the second step, we used a multiple linear regression (MLR) model and a set of climatic covariates to predict rainfall erosivity on the TP in 2050. The MLR was used to establish the relationship between current rainfall erosivity data and a set of current climatic and other covariates. The coefficients of the MLR were generalised with climate covariates for 2050 derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models to estimate rainfall erosivity in 2050. During the third step, soil erosion by water in 2050 was predicted using rainfall erosivity in 2050 and other erosion factors. The results show that the mean annual soil erosion rate on the TP under current conditions is 2.76tha -1 y -1 , which is equivalent to an annual soil loss of 559.59×10 6 t. Our 2050 projections suggested that erosion on the TP will increase to 3.17tha -1 y -1 and 3.91tha -1 y -1 under conditions represented by RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The current assessment and future prediction of soil erosion by water on the TP should be valuable for environment protection and soil conservation in this unique region and elsewhere. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Impacts of Maximum Temperature and Climate Change to Current and Future Pollen Distribution in Skopje, Republic of Macedonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir Kendrovski

2012-02-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND. The goal of the present paper was to assess the impact of current and future burden of the ambient temperature to pollen distributions in Skopje. METHODS. In the study we have evaluated a correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere of Skopje and maximum temperature, during the vegetation period of 1996, 2003, 2007 and 2009 as a current burden in context of climate change. For our analysis we have selected 9 representative of each phytoallergen group (trees, grasses, weeds. The concentration of pollen grains has been monitored by a Lanzoni volumetric pollen trap. The correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere and selected meteorological variable from weekly monitoring has been studied with the help of linear regression and correlation coefficients. RESULTS. The prevalence of the sensibilization of standard pollen allergens in Skopje during the some period shows increasing from 16,9% in 1996 to 19,8% in 2009. We detect differences in onset of flowering, maximum and end of the length of seasons for pollen. The pollen distributions and risk increases in 3 main periods: early spring, spring and summer which are the main cause of allergies during these seasons. The largest increase of air temperature due to climate change in Skopje is expected in the summer season. CONCLUSION. The impacts of climate change by increasing of the temperature in the next decades very likely will include impacts on pollen production and differences in current pollen season. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2012; 11(1.000: 35-40

Effects of Climate on the Zooplankton of the California Current

Science.gov (United States)

Lavaniegos, B. E.

2007-05-01

Almost six decades of sampling of the California Current system, carried out by the CalCOFI program (California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation) complemented by a decade of observations from the IMECOCAL program (Investigaciones Mexicanas de la Corriente de California), have revealed changing patterns in zooplankton abundances, species composition, and distributions over interannual through multidecadal time scales. Interannual changes associated with ENSO variability are manifested as strong but transitory perturbations in the mean annual cycle in seasonal abundances (and distributions) of particular species. An investigation of longer- term change, limited to the region off southern California, shows a persistent decline in zooplankton volumes (a proxy for overall biomass of macrozooplankton) between 1977 and 1998 that is considered to be a response to the well documented shift in basin-scale climate forcing that occurred in 1976-77. Further examination of this decline in zooplankton volumes indicates that it was due principally to the disappearance of several salp species after 1977. Other species and functional groups did not decline after the change in climate regime, while some species have followed persistent secular trends that appear to be associated more with the phenomenon of long-term global warming. Differences in the regional responses to climate change throughout the California Current system have also been observed recently in the spatial distribution of zooplankton biomass and changes in latitudinal ranges of certain species. For example, zooplankton biomass in the Baja California region show typical values for the 1997-98 El Niño that were followed by a decrease during the sharp transition to the cool La Niña conditions in 1999. This contrasts with the nearby region off southern California that was characterized by reduced biomass during the El Niño period and the subsequent recovery during the La Niña. Another regional contrast in

A study on safety climate at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fukui, Hirokazu; Yoshida, Michio; Yoshiyama, Naohiro

2001-01-01

In the current study, we define safety climate as an organizational environment that induces members of the organization to give consideration to safety or take safety actions. It is of utmost importance that people holding managerial positions in an organization have a good understanding of the characteristics of the safety climate of the organization and implement safety promotion activities effectively. In the current research, we studied the rating scales and the characteristics of a safety climate. A survey was conducted, targeting technical engineers who belong to the three power stations of Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. The questionnaire mainly consisted of questions concerning safety measures taken by individuals and questions concerning safety measures taken by the organization, to which the individuals belong. As a result of a factor analysis of the responses, we extracted five factors, namely, 'confidence in knowledge and skill', attitude of supervisors,' 'safety education in workplace', 'clarity of tasks' and 'safety confirmation/report'. In studying the rating scales of the safety climate, we selected five items from each of the above five factors, and used the total scores of the ratings of the five items as scores of each factor. Then, we examined the correlation between scores of personal factors and scores of organizational environment factors. We treated the scores of safety confirmation/report' and 'confidence in knowledge and skill', which are personal factors, as criterion variables, and the scores of 'attitude of supervisors', 'safety education in workplace' and 'clarity of tasks', which are organizational environment factors, as predictor variables. As a result, we found that levels of 'safety confirmation/report' and 'confidence in knowledge and skill' can be deduced from the scores of 'attitude of supervisors', 'safety education in workplace' and 'clarity of tasks.' Hence, we have decided to use these three organizational environment

Climate change streamflow scenarios designed for critical period water resources planning studies

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlet, A. F.; Snover, A. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2003-04-01

Long-range water planning in the United States is usually conducted by individual water management agencies using a critical period planning exercise based on a particular period of the observed streamflow record and a suite of internally-developed simulation tools representing the water system. In the context of planning for climate change, such an approach is flawed in that it assumes that the future climate will be like the historic record. Although more sophisticated planning methods will probably be required as time goes on, a short term strategy for incorporating climate uncertainty into long-range water planning as soon as possible is to create alternate inputs to existing planning methods that account for climate uncertainty as it affects both supply and demand. We describe a straight-forward technique for constructing streamflow scenarios based on the historic record that include the broad-based effects of changed regional climate simulated by several global climate models (GCMs). The streamflow scenarios are based on hydrologic simulations driven by historic climate data perturbed according to regional climate signals from four GCMs using the simple "delta" method. Further data processing then removes systematic hydrologic model bias using a quantile-based bias correction scheme, and lastly, the effects of random errors in the raw hydrologic simulations are removed. These techniques produce streamflow scenarios that are consistent in time and space with the historic streamflow record while incorporating fundamental changes in temperature and precipitation from the GCM scenarios. Planning model simulations based on these climate change streamflow scenarios can therefore be compared directly to planning model simulations based on the historic record of streamflows to help planners understand the potential impacts of climate uncertainty. The methods are currently being tested and refined in two large-scale planning exercises currently being conducted in the

What incentives to climate change mitigation through harvested wood products in the current french policy framework? (Summary). Climate Report no. 47

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deheza, Mariana; N'Goran, Carmen; Bellassen, Valentin

2014-09-01

Beyond the important role that forests play in the fight against climate change through the sequestration of carbon in their biomass, wood products also contribute to climate change through three channels: - Material substitution: the manufacturing of wood products being less energy intensive allows to avoid carbon emissions from the processing of other alternative materials (eg. concrete, steel, etc); - Energy substitution: achieved by the generation of energy from wood combustion replacing other fossil fuels. - Carbon sequestration in the wood products: wood products sequester carbon during their whole life span until their decomposition. This Climate Report identifies French policies that have an impact on climate change mitigation by wood products through these three mitigation channels. Our analysis asserts that similarly to the context at the EU level, the current national policy framework incentives are mostly directed to the 'energy wood' sector. These incentives include fiscal and financial instruments such as: - The heat fund ('fonds chaleur'), which subsidizes the production of renewable heat particularly from biomass; - The zero interest rate eco-loans ('eco-pret a taux zero') and the Sustainable development tax credit ('credit d'impot developpement durable (CIDD)') which partly subsidize wood heating; - Reduced VAT on renewable heat purchases. The use of wood as a material is currently less encouraged, at least on the financial side: the few devices that support it are rarely binding and mobilize limited resources. Future measures planned under the National Action Plan for the forest-based sector and the upcoming law for the future of agriculture and forestry ('Loi d'avenir pour l'agriculture et la foret') could slightly re-balance this situation. (authors)

Indiana bat summer maternity distribution: effects of current and future climates

Science.gov (United States)

Susan C. Loeb; Eric A. Winters

2013-01-01

Temperate zone bats may be more sensitive to climate change than other groups of mammals because many aspects of their ecology are closely linked to temperature. However, few studies have tried to predict the responses of bats to climate change. The Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) is a federally listed endangered species that is found in the eastern...

MECCA coordinated research program: analysis of climate models uncertainties used for climatic changes study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caneill, J.Y.; Hakkarinen, C.

1992-01-01

An international consortium, called MECCA, (Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment) has been created in 1991 by different partners including electric utilities, government and academic groups to make available to the international scientific community, a super-computer facility for climate evolution studies. The first phase of the program consists to assess uncertainties of climate model simulations in the framework of global climate change studies. Fourteen scientific projects have been accepted on an international basis in this first phase. The second phase of the program will consist in the evaluation of a set of long climate simulations realized with coupled ocean/atmosphere models, in order to study the transient aspects of climate changes and the associated uncertainties. A particular attention will be devoted, on the consequences of these assessments on climate impact studies, and on the regional aspects of climate changes

Criteria for selecting a CO2/climate change region of study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cushman, R.; Easterling, W.; Rosenberg, N.; Malone, T.; Edmonds, J.; Scott, M.; Stoke, G.

1989-01-01

This effort has three near-term goals: (1) to develop robust methods of analysis including the analysis of uncertainty; (2) to develop information systems to support CO 2 /climate change analysis; and (3) to develop channels of communication among researchers and between researchers and parties potentially affected by CO 2 /climate change. Initially, the program will focus on a single region of the United States, employ a historical analog climate, and analyze the interactions of all of the resources resident within that region as they might evolve under current conditions and under evolving CO 2 /climate change over the next 50 years. Five elements of the program will address the issues of: Analysis, Information Systems, Uncertainty, Knowledge Transfer, and Coordination. This paper will give special attention to the analytical framework and in particular to the criteria for selecting a region for study. 19 refs., 2 figs

Climate change adaptation strategies by local farmers in Kilombero ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This article examines current adaptation strategies developed by local farmers against climate change effects in Kilombero District. Research questions guided the study include; what are the past and current climatic stresses? What are local farmers' perception on climate change and response to the adverse climatic ...

Analysis of Current and Future SPEI Droughts in the La Plata Basin Based on Results from the Regional Eta Climate Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alvaro Sordo-Ward

2017-11-01

Full Text Available We identified and analysed droughts in the La Plata Basin (divided into seven sub-basins for the current period (1961–2005 and estimated their expected evolution under future climate projections for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. Future climate projections were analysed from results of the Eta Regional Climate Model (grid resolution of approximately 10 km forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES over the La Plata basin, and considering a RCP4.5 emission scenario. Within each sub-basin, we particularly focused our drought analyses on croplands and grasslands, due to their economic relevance. The three-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI3 was used for drought identification and characterization. Droughts were evaluated in terms of time (percentage of time from the total length of each climate scenario, space (percentage of total area, and severity (SPEI3 values of cells characterized by cropland and grassland for each sub-basin and climate scenario. Drought-severity–area–frequency curves were developed to quantitatively relate the frequency distribution of drought occurrence to drought severity and area. For the period 2011–2040, droughts dominate the northern sub-basins, whereas alternating wet and short dry periods dominate the southern sub-basins. Wet climate spread from south to north within the La Plata Basin as more distant future scenarios were analysed, due to both a greater number of wet periods and fewer droughts. The area of each sub-basin affected by drought in all climate scenarios was highly varied temporally and spatially. The likelihood of the occurrence of droughts differed significantly between the studied cover types in the Lower Paraguay sub-basin, being higher for cropland than for grassland. Mainly in the Upper Paraguay and in the Upper Paraná basins the climate projections for all scenarios showed an increase of moderate and severe droughts over large regions

A study on safety climate at nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fukui, Hirokazu [Institute of Nuclear Safety System Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan); Yoshida, Michio; Yoshiyama, Naohiro [Japan Institute for Group Dynamics, Fukuoka (Japan)

2001-09-01

In the current study, we define safety climate as an organizational environment that induces members of the organization to give consideration to safety or take safety actions. It is of utmost importance that people holding managerial positions in an organization have a good understanding of the characteristics of the safety climate of the organization and implement safety promotion activities effectively. In the current research, we studied the rating scales and the characteristics of a safety climate. A survey was conducted, targeting technical engineers who belong to the three power stations of Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. The questionnaire mainly consisted of questions concerning safety measures taken by individuals and questions concerning safety measures taken by the organization, to which the individuals belong. As a result of a factor analysis of the responses, we extracted five factors, namely, 'confidence in knowledge and skill', attitude of supervisors,' 'safety education in workplace', 'clarity of tasks' and 'safety confirmation/report'. In studying the rating scales of the safety climate, we selected five items from each of the above five factors, and used the total scores of the ratings of the five items as scores of each factor. Then, we examined the correlation between scores of personal factors and scores of organizational environment factors. We treated the scores of safety confirmation/report' and 'confidence in knowledge and skill', which are personal factors, as criterion variables, and the scores of 'attitude of supervisors', 'safety education in workplace' and 'clarity of tasks', which are organizational environment factors, as predictor variables. As a result, we found that levels of 'safety confirmation/report' and 'confidence in knowledge and skill' can be deduced from the scores of 'attitude of supervisors', &apos

Tree-rings and climate: Implications for Great Basin paleoenvironmental studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graybill, D.A.; Rose, M.R.; Nials, F.L.

1994-01-01

The Quaternary Sciences Center of the Desert Research Institute is currently conducting a multi-phased study of floral, faunal, and geomorphic response to long- and short-term climate change and extremes in assessing Yucca Mountain's suitability as a high-level nuclear waste repository. Preliminary results of these studies indicate synchronous responses in late Holocene tree-ring, palynology and geomorphic records. A tree-ring chronology for paleoclimatic reconstruction is developed by collection of multiple cores from 20-60 living trees and a similar number of dead trees in a climate-sensitive location. Samples are cross-dated and every growth layer in each specimen is measured to the nearest .001 mm. The measured ring width series potentially contain a variety of climatic, biological, and anthropogenic signals. Each ring width series is subjected to a numerical standarization procedure that removes an age-related biological growth trend, reduces endogeneous and exogenous stand disturbance factors, and maximizes any climatic signal that is present. Each of these empirically defined components can be graphically portrayed and subjected to further analyses. The geophysical signal analysis techniques involved in the standarized protocol are well-documented and established. The final result is a tree-ring chronology that represents regional paleoclimatic variability over the time represented by the sample population

Applicability of the Organisational Climate Description Questionnaire - Rutgers Elementary: a South African case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D Vos

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The Organisational Climate Description Questionnaire - Rutgers Elementary (OCDQ - RE was used to determine the current organizational climate of primary schools in North-West Province, South Africa. This questionnaire evaluates the actions of principals and educators; the current organizational climate in primary schools can be determined from the results. A quantitative research approach, with 904 teachers from 68 schools, was used to determine the applicability of the measuring instrument. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses revealed that certain items measuring directive behaviour in the OCDQ-RE grouped with supportive behaviour of the principal. Hence, in this study, these items were regarded as supportive towards the educators and their work by the respondents. According to Cronbach's alpha coefficient the questionnaire can be regarded as reliable. Recommendations are made to render the questionnaire even more applicable for the South African context.

Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L. for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xian-Ge Hu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Climate niche modeling has been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees at the species level. However, geographically divergent tree populations are expected to respond differently to climate change. Considering intraspecific local adaptation in modeling species responses to climate change will thus improve the credibility and usefulness of climate niche models, particularly for genetic resources management. In this study, we used five Platycladus orientalis (L. seed zones (Northwestern; Northern; Central; Southern; and Subtropical covering the entire species range in China. A climate niche model was developed and used to project the suitable climatic conditions for each of the five seed zones for current and various future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Our results indicated that the Subtropical seed zone would show consistent reduction for all climate change scenarios. The remaining seed zones, however, would experience various degrees of expansion in suitable habitat relative to their current geographic distributions. Most of the seed zones would gain suitable habitats at their northern distribution margins and higher latitudes. Thus, we recommend adjusting the current forest management strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganesh, Chandrakala; Smith, Jason A

2018-04-01

Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California's progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions.

Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jason A.

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California’s progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions. PMID:29072936

A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes

Science.gov (United States)

Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric; Auer, Ingeborg; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Brandsma, Theo; Brunetti, Michele; Dienst, Manuel; Domonkos, Peter; Gilabert, Alba; Lindén, Jenny; Milewska, Ewa; Nordli, Øyvind; Prohom, Marc; Rennie, Jared; Stepanek, Petr; Trewin, Blair; Vincent, Lucie; Willett, Kate; Wolff, Mareile

2016-04-01

In this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, in the framework of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long-term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., (i) station relocations, (ii) instrument height changes, (iii) instrumentation changes, (iv) observing environment changes, (v) different sampling intervals or data collection procedures, among others. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of long-term trends and variability of climate. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location, different radiation shields, etc.). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of air temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important

Comparison of two down-scaling methods for climate study and climate change on the mountain areas in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piazza, Marie; Page, Christian; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent; Deque, Michel

2013-01-01

Mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and are likely to be among the areas most impacted by global warming. But climate projections for the end of the 21. century are developed with general circulation models of climate, which do not present a sufficient horizontal resolution to accurately evaluate the impacts of warming on these regions. Several techniques are then used to perform a spatial down-scaling (on the order of 10 km). There are two categories of down-scaling methods: dynamical methods that require significant computational resources for the achievement of regional climate simulations at high resolution, and statistical methods that require few resources but an observation dataset over a long period and of good quality. In this study, climate simulations of the global atmospheric model ARPEGE projections over France are down-scaled according to a dynamical method, performed with the ALADIN-Climate regional model, and a statistical method performed with the software DSClim developed at CERFACS. The two down-scaling methods are presented and the results on the climate of the French mountains are evaluated for the current climate. Both methods give similar results for average snowfall. However extreme events of total precipitation (droughts, intense precipitation events) are largely underestimated by the statistical method. Then, the results of both methods are compared for two future climate projections, according to the greenhouse gas emissions scenario A1B of IPCC. The two methods agree on fewer frost days, a significant decrease in the amounts of solid precipitation and an average increase in the percentage of dry days of more than 10%. The results obtained on Corsica are more heterogeneous but they are questionable because the reduced spatial domain is probably not very relevant regarding statistical sampling. (authors)

Climate Literacy: Climate.gov Follow-Up Evaluation—A Study of the Four NOAA Audiences

Science.gov (United States)

Niepold, F., III; Sullivan, S. B.; Gold, A. U.; Lynds, S. E.; Kirk, K.

2014-12-01

NOAA Climate.gov provides science and information for a climate-smart nation. Americans' health, security, and economic well-being are closely linked to climate and weather. NOAA Climate.gov's goals are to promote public understanding of climate science and climate-related events, to make our data products and services easy to access and use, to support educators in improving the nations climate literacy, and to serve people making climate-related decisions with tools and resources that help them answer specific questions.The Climate.Gov Follow-Up Study of the four NOAA Audiences (climate interested public, educators, scientists, policy-makers) built upon the previous literature review and evaluation study conducted by Mooney and Phillips in 2010 and 2012, http://tinyurl.com/ma8vo83. The CIRES Education and Outreach team at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at University of Colorado at Boulder and the NOAA Climate.gov team will present results of the new study that used the Quality of Relationship index (awareness, trust, satisfaction, usability, and control mutuality). This index was developed in the previous study and places a new emphasis on the experience of individual users from the four audiences in their regular work or home setting. This new evaluation project used mixed methods, including an online survey, usability studies, phone interviews, and web statistics, providing multiple lines of evidence from which to draw conclusion and recommendations.In the session, we will explore how the NOAA Climate.gov teams used the literature review and new CIRES research to address underlying challenges to achieving the portal's goals. The research in these studies finds that people seek information in ways that are complex and that they do so by consulting a vast array of technologies. Improved and different modes of access to information have, throughout history, been led by technological innovation, but human behavior tends to be

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam E Vorsino

Full Text Available Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75 as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1. This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

Science.gov (United States)

Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

2014-01-01

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113

2016-01-01

Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

2016-01-01

Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

Relative roles of local disturbance, current climate and palaeoclimate in determining phylogenetic and functional diversity in Chinese forests

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Feng, Gang; Mi, Xiangcheng; Bøcher, Peder Klith

2014-01-01

their relative roles in determining woody plant phylogenetic and functional diversity in this important hotspot for woody plant diversity. Local disturbance was the best predictor of functional diversity as represented by maximum canopy height (Hmax), probably reflecting the dominant role of competition...... studied, their relative importance for other aspects of diversity, notably phylogenetic and functional diversity is so far little studied. Here, we link data from large Chinese forest plots to data on current and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate as well as local disturbance regimes to study...

A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

2015-09-01

Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidence of current impact of climate change on life : A walk from genes to the biosphere

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Penuelas, Josep; Sardans, Jordi; Estiarte, Marc; Ogaya, Roma; Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Barbeta, Adria; Rivas-Ubach, Albert; Llusia, Joan; Garbulsky, Martin; Filella, Iolanda; Jump, Alistair S.

We review the evidence of how organisms and populations are currently responding to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, genotypic evolution, changes in distribution and, in some cases, local extinction. Organisms alter their gene expression and metabolism to increase the concentrations of

Current measurement studies around the Cesme Peninsula (Turkey)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taspinar, N.

1989-04-01

In order to design coastal structures and marine vehicles safely, it is required to know current climate which shows the variation of the current characteristics with time. There are a wide variety of current meters designed to measure water flow today. Each current meter is capable of recording the influence of mooring arrangement. Here we describe sea water temperatures, salinities and current velocities at offshore of Akburun, Tatlicak Burnu, Kalem Burnu and Kizil Burun areas in Cesme Peninsula 27 August, 1986 to 19 November, 1986. At the end of the investigations, measured significant maximum and average current velocities have been routinely analysed with micro-computers and also the percentages of current velocity have been calculated. (author). 8 refs, 6 figs, 4 tabs

Fixing Climate: What Past Climate Changes Reveal About the Current Threat-And How to Counter It

Science.gov (United States)

McKinley, Galen A.

2008-10-01

The Earth's climate is changing due to human activities. Recent polls suggest that the U.S. public generally recognizes this fact, and the efforts that led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former U.S. vice president Al Gore to win the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize have played no small role in bringing most of the public to realize what scientists have been discussing for years. Yet aside from distorted Hollywood movie accounts such as The Day After Tomorrow, the public knows little about the potential for abrupt change in the climate system. With support from climate science philanthropist Gary Comer, climate scientist Wally Broecker has teamed with science writer Robert Kunzig in this book to bring abrupt climate change into public view. They do this elegantly and convincingly, making the first 12 chapters quite enjoyable.

Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of forests in the Indian Western Himalayan region: A case study of Himachal Pradesh, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sujata Upgupta

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment at state and regional levels is necessary to develop adaptation strategies for forests in the biogeographically vital Himalayan region. The present study assesses forest ecosystem vulnerability to climate change across Himachal Pradesh and presents the priority districts for vulnerability reduction under ‘current climate’ and ‘future climate’ scenarios. Vulnerability of forests under ‘current climate’ scenario is assessed by adopting indicator-based approach, while the vulnerability under ‘future climate’ scenario is assessed using climate and vegetation impact models. Based on the vulnerability index estimated to present the vulnerability of forests under current and projected climate change impacts representing climate driven vulnerability, five districts – Chamba, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi and Shimla are identified as priority forest districts for adaptation planning. Identifying vulnerable forest districts and forests will help policy makers and forest managers to prioritize resource allocation and forest management interventions, to restore health and productivity of forests and to build long-term resilience to climate change.

Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

Science.gov (United States)

Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-01-01

More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases, the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time-span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

Comparing modeled and observed changes in mineral dust transport and deposition to Antarctica between the Last Glacial Maximum and current climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Albani, Samuel [University of Siena, Graduate School in Polar Sciences, Siena (Italy); University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Environmental Sciences, Milano (Italy); Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Mahowald, Natalie M. [Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Delmonte, Barbara; Maggi, Valter [University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Environmental Sciences, Milano (Italy); Winckler, Gisela [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, NY (United States)

2012-05-15

Mineral dust aerosols represent an active component of the Earth's climate system, by interacting with radiation directly, and by modifying clouds and biogeochemistry. Mineral dust from polar ice cores over the last million years can be used as paleoclimate proxy, and provide unique information about climate variability, as changes in dust deposition at the core sites can be due to changes in sources, transport and/or deposition locally. Here we present results from a study based on climate model simulations using the Community Climate System Model. The focus of this work is to analyze simulated differences in the dust concentration, size distribution and sources in current climate conditions and during the Last Glacial Maximum at specific ice core locations in Antarctica, and compare with available paleodata. Model results suggest that South America is the most important source for dust deposited in Antarctica in current climate, but Australia is also a major contributor and there is spatial variability in the relative importance of the major dust sources. During the Last Glacial Maximum the dominant source in the model was South America, because of the increased activity of glaciogenic dust sources in Southern Patagonia-Tierra del Fuego and the Southernmost Pampas regions, as well as an increase in transport efficiency southward. Dust emitted from the Southern Hemisphere dust source areas usually follow zonal patterns, but southward flow towards Antarctica is located in specific areas characterized by southward displacement of air masses. Observations and model results consistently suggest a spatially variable shift in dust particle sizes. This is due to a combination of relatively reduced en route wet removal favouring a generalized shift towards smaller particles, and on the other hand to an enhanced relative contribution of dry coarse particle deposition in the Last Glacial Maximum. (orig.)

The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Wang, Jiali; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Zobel, Zachary; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R

2017-07-01

Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high-resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995-2004 and 2085-2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in the US Midwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize production under RCP4.5 and soybean production under both RCP scenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize under RCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Critical Studies on Integrating Land-Use Induced Effects on Climate Regulation Services into Impact Assessment for Human Well-Being

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhihui Li

2013-01-01

Full Text Available It is commonly acknowledged that land use changes (LUC and climate changes have exerted significant effects on ecosystem services which are essential and vital to human well-being. Among all the services provided by ecosystem, climate regulation services are relatively sensitive to LUC and climate changes. This study aims to comprehensively review studies on the complex effects of LUC and climate changes on climate regulation services and further integrates the effects on climate regulation services into impact assessment for human well-being. In this study, we firstly introduced research efforts in which the drivers of and their corresponding effects on climate regulation services are briefly identified. Then, we explicitly reviewed the researches on the effects of LUC and climate changes on climate regulation services, especially focused on the certain methods and models used to quantify the effects on the major drivers of climate regulation services. After that, the effects of LUC and climate changes on human well-being via climate regulation services were revisited and commented accordingly. Finally, this paper discussed the current research gaps and proposed some research prospects in future studies.

Practical guidance material for the development, energy and climate country studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Halsnaes, K.; Garg, A.; Olhoff, A.; Denton, F.

2006-10-15

The document is developed as part of the Development, Energy and Climate project in order to facilitate methodological consistency and the use of common assumptions in national case studies in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Senegal and South Africa that are conducted as part of the project. In addition to this document the project and country studies are also based on in depth thematic work in three areas namely; 1) Development pathways and climate change; 2) Assessment of Policy Instruments in the Context of Current Market Structure, Institutional Capacities and Risks in Developing Countries; 3) Climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in the energy sector with a special emphasis given to linkages between adaptation and mitigation policies. The Development, Energy, and Climate project will identify promising energy policy options in the participating countries that are consistent with their national sustainable development objectives. The project teams from Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Senegal will examine how energy sector policies can be evaluated using specific sustainable development indicators and existing analytical approaches and tools relevant to the countries. The country studies will address energy sector issues, adaptation policies, and alternative scenarios for technology penetration processes. The policy options and the sustainable development impacts of implementing these will be discussed in national stakeholder dialogues with broad participation of government, private sector and NGOs. Cross-country interactions about conceptual and common methodological issues will be covered in three thematic papers. The project will produce a synthesis of the country case studies as an input to various international processes in order to build support for approaches that integrate sustainable development, energy and climate policies. (au)

Supporting NGSS-aligned Study of Authentic Data about Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Zalles, D. R.

2013-12-01

The subject of climate change holds tremendous opportunity for students to learn how scientists use data to develop and test theories of how the natural world works and appreciate how climate change instantiates cross-cutting NGSS science themes like stability and change, energy and matter, and cause and effect. To do so, students and teachers need help seeing in authentic Earth system data complex climate interactions and generate plans for building greater understanding of the complexities through further data investigation. With ever-growing repositories of global and regional public data and user friendly tools for their display, K-12 educators are challenged to help students study data independently rather than through the usual pre-filtered didactic presentations of data found in textbooks. The paper will describe strategies for facilitating critical thinking about authentic climate-related data in two climate change education projects funded by NASA and NSF, as well as learning outcomes. Data Enhanced Investigations for Climate Change Education (dicce.sri.com) brings data from NASA satellite missions to classrooms. Studying Topography, Orographic Rainfall, and Ecosystems with Geospatial Information Technology (store.sri.com) provides recent climatological and vegetation data about certain study areas in California and New York plus geospatially distributed projected values of temperature, precipitation, and land cover in 2050 and 2099, derived from NCAR's A2 climate change model. Supportive resources help students move from naïve conceptions of simple linear relationships between variables into critical analysis of what other variables could be mediating those relationships. DICCE contains guides for how to interpret multiyear trends that are evident in the NASA mission data in relation to what we know about current climate change. If a learner plots a line of best fit across multiple months or years of regional data and notices that the line is either

Study on climate change in Southwestern China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Zongxing

2015-03-01

Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

Study on climate change in Southwestern China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Zongxing

2015-01-01

Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

Potential and limitations of multidecadal satellite soil moisture observations for selected climate model evaluation studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Loew

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Soil moisture is an essential climate variable (ECV of major importance for land–atmosphere interactions and global hydrology. An appropriate representation of soil moisture dynamics in global climate models is therefore important. Recently, a first multidecadal, observation-based soil moisture dataset has become available that provides information on soil moisture dynamics from satellite observations (ECVSM, essential climate variable soil moisture. The present study investigates the potential and limitations of this new dataset for several applications in climate model evaluation. We compare soil moisture data from satellite observations, reanalysis and simulations from a state-of-the-art land surface model and analyze relationships between soil moisture and precipitation anomalies in the different dataset. Other potential applications like model parameter optimization or model initialization are not investigated in the present study. In a detailed regional study, we show that ECVSM is capable to capture well the interannual and intraannual soil moisture and precipitation dynamics in the Sahelian region. Current deficits of the new dataset are critically discussed and summarized at the end of the paper to provide guidance for an appropriate usage of the ECVSM dataset for climate studies.

A Case Study: Climate Change Decision Support for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, Flint Basins

Science.gov (United States)

Day, G. N.; McMahon, G.; Friesen, N.; Carney, S.

2011-12-01

Riverside Technology, inc. has developed a Climate Change Decision Support System (DSS) to provide water managers with a tool to explore a range of current Global Climate Model (GCM) projections to evaluate their potential impacts on streamflow and the reliability of future water supplies. The system was developed as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project. The DSS uses downscaled GCM data as input to small-scale watershed models to produce time series of projected undepleted streamflow for various emission scenarios and GCM simulations. Until recently, water managers relied on historical streamflow data for water resources planning. In many parts of the country, great effort has been put into estimating long-term historical undepleted streamflow accounting for regulation, diversions, and return flows to support planning and water rights administration. In some cases, longer flow records have been constructed using paleohydrologic data in an attempt to capture climate variability beyond what is evident during the observed historical record. Now, many water managers are recognizing that historical data may not be representative of an uncertain climate future, and they have begun to explore the use of climate projections in their water resources planning. The Climate Change DSS was developed to support water managers in planning by accounting for both climate variability and potential climate change. In order to use the information for impact analysis, the projected streamflow time series can be exported and substituted for the historical streamflow data traditionally applied in their system operations models for water supply planning. This paper presents a case study in which climate-adjusted flows are coupled with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ResSim model for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint (ACF) River basins. The study demonstrates how climate scenarios can be used

Climate change and international tourism: A simulation study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hamilton, J.M.; Maddison, D.J.; Tol, R.S.J.

2005-01-01

The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here, a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for

Inconsistencies at the interface of climate impact studies and global climate research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Storch, H. von.

1994-01-01

Most climate impacts studies, whether they deal with, for instance, terristric or marine ecosystems, coastal morphodynamics, storm surges and damages, or socio-economic aspects, utilize ''scenarios'' of possible future climate. Such scenarios are always based on the output of complex mathematical climate models, whenever they are in any sense detailed. Unfortunately, the user community of such scenarios usually is not well informed about the limitations and potentials of such models. On the other hand, the climate modeller community is not sufficiently aware of the demands on the side of the ''users''. The state of the art of climate models is revieved and the principal limitations concerning the spatial/time resolution and the accuracy of simulated data are discussed. The need for a ''downscaling strategy'' on the climate modeller side and for an ''upscaling'' strategy on the user side is demonstrated. Examples for successful exercieses in downscaling seasonal mean precipitation and daily rainfall sequences are shown. (orig.)

Comparative study on Climate Change Policies in the EU and China

Science.gov (United States)

Bray, M.; Han, D.

2012-04-01

Both the EU and China are among the largest CO2 emitters in the world; their climate actions and policies have profound impacts on global climate change and may influence the activities in other countries. Evidence of climate change has been observed across Europe and China. Despite the many differences between the two regions, the European Commission and Chinese government support climate change actions. The EU has three priority areas in climate change: 1) understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impact; 2) providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, cost and benefits of different policy options for mitigating climate change and adapting to its impacts; 3) improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climate friendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future. China is very vulnerable to climate change, because of its vast population, fast economic development, and fragile ecological environment. The priority policies in China are: 1) Carbon Trading Policy; 2) Financing Loan Policy (Special Funds for Renewable Energy Development); 3) Energy Efficiency Labelling Policy; 4) Subsidy Policy. In addition, China has formulated the "Energy Conservation Law", "Renewable Energy Law", "Cleaner Production Promotion Law" and "Circular Economy Promotion Law". Under the present EU Framework Programme FP7 there is a large number of funded research activities linked to climate change research. Current climate change research projects concentrate on the carbon cycle, water quality and availability, climate change predictors, predicting future climate and understanding past climates. Climate change-related scientific and technological projects in China are mostly carried out through national scientific and technological research programs. Areas under investigation include projections and impact of global climate change, the future trends of living environment change in China, countermeasures and supporting technologies of global

Climate Action Tracker Update. Climate Shuffle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoehne, N.; Fekete, H.; Vieweg, M.; Hare, B.; Schaeffer, M.; Rocha, M.; Larkin, J.; Guetschow, J.; Jeffery, L.

2011-11-15

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) compares and assesses national and global action against a range of different climate targets across all relevant time frames, starting with an ongoing analysis of countries' current emission reduction pledges. National action on climate change mitigation appears to be joining the international climate negotiations in the new and ever popular 'climate shuffle' dance. It involves maximum effort and motion while staying in the same spot, or even, in some cases, going backwards. Recent emissions trends and estimates of the effects of those policies in place and proposed lead to a new estimate that warming is likely to approach 4C by 2100, significantly above the warming that would result from full implementation of the pledges (3.3C). The continuous global fossil-fuel intensive development of the past decade suggests that high warming levels of 4C are more plausible than assuming full implementation of current pledges. Evidence is ever increasing that existing and planned policies are not sufficient for countries to meet these pledges.

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

2017-12-01

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

2015-04-01

A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation

The Effects of Inter-annual Climate Variability on the Departures of Leatherback Marine Turtles from the California Current Ecosystem

OpenAIRE

Van Zerr, Vanessa E

2013-01-01

The Pacific Ocean is a highly variable environment, and changes in oceanographic conditions impact the distributions of many organisms. Inter-annual climate variability, especially the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, is known to have wide-ranging impacts on organisms in the California Current. Understanding the factors that drive changes in the spatial ecology of organisms, such as inter-annual climate variability, is essential in many cases for effective conservation. Leatherback marine turtle...

The Northern Climate Exchange Gap Analysis Project : an assessment of the current state of knowledge about the impacts of climate change in northern Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

The Northern Climate ExChange (NCE) Gap Analysis Project was launched in 1999 with an objective to assess the state of knowledge on climate change in northern Canada. Resulting products of the project have included the Infosource Database, an on-line database of published climate change research related to the Canadian North, the Directory of Contacts, another on-line database of interested parties to climate change issues, and a set of tables that rate the level of available information on climate change as it relates to natural, economic and community systems. Other products include a report of a workshop on climate change research, 2 reports assessing the level of traditional northern knowledge about climate change, 2 reports assessing the completeness and value of the Infosource Database, a web site for NCE, and this report. All products are available to the public on the Internet or on a CD-ROM. The NCE Gap Analysis Project has shown there are inequalities in the amount of information across different systems, and that there is more knowledge on predicted temperature changes than for other climate components. The study notes that there are strong regional trends for compiled knowledge, with some regions having been better studied than others. The project revealed that traditional knowledge of climate change has not been well documented, and that more information exists about climate change impacts on biological systems with an economic component than those without economic significance. refs., tabs., figs

Railway safety climate: a study on organizational development.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Yung-Hsiang

2017-09-07

The safety climate of an organization is considered a leading indicator of potential risk for railway organizations. This study adopts the perceptual measurement-individual attribute approach to investigate the safety climate of a railway organization. The railway safety climate attributes are evaluated from the perspective of railway system staff. We identify four safety climate dimensions from exploratory factor analysis, namely safety communication, safety training, safety management and subjectively evaluated safety performance. Analytical results indicate that the safety climate differs at vertical and horizontal organizational levels. This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence of the multilevel safety climate in a railway organization, presents possible causes of the differences under various cultural contexts and differentiates between safety climate scales for diverse workgroups within the railway organization. This information can be used to improve the safety sustainability of railway organizations and to conduct safety supervisions for the government.

Climate Literacy: Progress in AMS Climate Studies Undergraduate Course in Meteorology Program at Jackson State University

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, S. R.

2013-12-01

AMS Climate Studies is an introductory college-level course developed by the American Meteorological Society for implementation at undergraduate institutions nationwide and increasing involvement of under-represented groups The course places students in a dynamic and highly motivational educational environment where they investigate Earth's climate system using real-world environmental data. The AMS Climate Studies course package consists of a textbook, investigations manual, course website, and course management system-compatible files. Instructors can use these resources in combinations that make for an exciting learning experience for their students. The AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project Workshop participation is on a first-come, first-serve basis as determined by the date-of-receipt of the License Order Form. To grow AMS Diversity Programs to their fullest extent, institutions are encouraged to nominate course instructors who did not previously attend Diversity Project workshops. Until three months before the workshop, two-thirds of the workshop positions would be reserved for institutions new to AMS Diversity Projects. The AMS five day course implementation workshop was held in Washington, DC, during May 24-29, 2012. It covered essential course topics in climate science and global climate change, and strategies for course implementation. Talks would feature climate science and sustainability experts from Federal agencies and area research institutions, such as NASA, NOAA, University of Maryland, Howard University, George Mason University, and other Washington, DC, area institutions. The workshop would also include visits to NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. JSU Meteorology Program will be offering AMS Climate Studies undergraduate course under MET 210: Climatology in spring 2014. AMS Climate Studies is offered as a 3 credit hour laboratory course with 2 lectures and 1 lab sessions per week. Although this course places

The Dependencies of Ecosystem Pattern, Structure, and Dynamics on Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.

2012-12-01

A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data

Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

Science.gov (United States)

MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L. N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jo, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.

2009-01-01

Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere-land surface-lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simultaneously do not presently exist, though there are many applications that would benefit from such models. It is argued here that current understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in freshwater systems is sufficient to begin to construct such models, and a path forward is proposed. The largest impediment to fully representing lakes in the climate system lies in the handling of lakes that are too small to be explicitly resolved by the climate model, and that make up the majority of the lake-covered area at the resolutions currently used by global and regional climate models. Ongoing development within the hydrological sciences community and continual improvements in model resolution should help ameliorate this issue.

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seungwon; Pan, Lei; Zhai, Chengxing; Tang, Benyang; Kubar, Terry; Zhang, Zia; Wang, Wei

2015-01-01

The comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations is critically needed for the improvement of climate model current-state representation and future-state predictability. A climate model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable analyses that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computation- and data-intensive. With an exploratory nature of climate data analyses and an explosive growth of datasets and service tools, scientists are struggling to keep track of their datasets, tools, and execution/study history, let alone sharing them with others. In response, we have developed a cloud-enabled, provenance-supported, web-service system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA). CMDA enables the physics-based, multivariable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. At the same time, CMDA provides a crowd-sourcing space where scientists can organize their work efficiently and share their work with others. CMDA is empowered by many current state-of-the-art software packages in web service, provenance, and semantic search.

The Climate Services Partnership (CSP): Working Together to Improve Climate Services Worldwide

Science.gov (United States)

Zebiak, S.; Brasseur, G.; Members of the CSP Coordinating Group

2012-04-01

-searchable database that allows users to see what climate services activities are underway in what locations, to gather and analyze information. As part of the knowledge capture system, more than 10 CSP members are currently developing case studies to describe specific climate services activities; in a few cases, this involves in-depth evaluations of the service in question. Finally, the Economics Working Group of the Climate Services Partnership is analyzing previous methods to economically value climate services in hopes of generating knew knowledge regarding the methods are best suited to assessing the benefits associated with various climate services. Other groups are working to develop guidance materials for the development and use of climate information to support decision and policy-making. The Climate Services Partnership is an open, informal network that builds on activities that are already underway and works to create synergies to improve the provision and development for climate services. Its members currently number more than 50 organizations; it seeks new participants and new initiatives.

Climate-Soil-Vegetation Interactions: A Case-Study from the Forest Fire Phenomenon in Southern Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Reinhard, M.; Alexakis, E.; Rebetez, M.; Schlaepfer, R.

2003-04-01

In Southern Switzerland, we have observed increasing trends in extreme drought and precipitation events, probably linked to global climatic change. These modifications are more important than changes in annual precipitation sums. On the one hand, an increase in extreme drought implies a higher risk for forest fires, impeding the fulfilment of the various forest functions, on the other hand, extreme precipitation events, developing over a short time span, could simultaneously damage the forest ecosystems or destabilise the soil of burned areas, triggering debris flows. Climatic changes might additionally lead to modifications of the current species composition in the forests. Changes are currently observed at lower elevations (laurophiliation), but are still largely unknown at higher elevations. For the time being, forest fires cannot be regarded as natural phenomena in the South of Switzerland because they are mostly anthropogenically triggered. However, the changing climatic patterns, which set new conditions for the forests, may become a new ecological regulator for the forests as well as the forest fires. The social and environmental consequences are important for these issues. The implications for forest planning and management must be further studied and taken into account. Despite uncertainty about the response of forest ecosystems to climate change, planning and management can no longer rely on decadal to century climatic patterns. The increasing importance of changing environmental conditions within the framework of prevention will have to be reconsidered.

The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO ₂

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jin, Zhenong [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA; Zhuang, Qianlai [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA; Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA; Wang, Jiali [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA; Archontoulis, Sotirios V. [Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames IA 50011 USA; Zobel, Zachary [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana, Urbana IL 61801 USA; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA

2017-01-25

Heat and drought stresses are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here we present a study that quantified the current and future yield responses of US rainfed maize and soybean to climate extremes, and for the first time characterized spatial shifts in the relative importance of temperature, heat and drought stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), driven by the high-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model downscaled future climate scenarios at two time slices (1995-2005 and 2085-2094). Our results show that climatic yield gaps and interannual variability are greater in the core production area than in the remaining US by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of change is highly dependent on the current climate sensitivity and vulnerability. Elevated CO2 partially offsets the climatic yield gaps and reduces interannual yield variability, and effect is more prominent in soybean than in maize. We demonstrate that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize and soybean production, although its dominant role gradually gives way to other impacts of heat extremes. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stressors are characterized by increases in the concurrent stress, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering drought and extreme heat simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management.

A longitudinal study of an intervention to improve road safety climate: climate as an organizational boundary spanner.

Science.gov (United States)

Naveh, Eitan; Katz-Navon, Tal

2015-01-01

This study presents and tests an intervention to enhance organizational climate and expands existing conceptualization of organizational climate to include its influence on employee behaviors outside the organization's physical boundaries. In addition, by integrating the literatures of climate and work-family interface, the study explored climate spillover and crossover from work to the home domain. Focusing on an applied practical problem within organizations, we investigated the example of road safety climate and employees' and their families' driving, using a longitudinal study design of road safety intervention versus control groups. Results demonstrated that the intervention increased road safety climate and decreased the number of traffic violation tickets and that road safety climate mediated the relationship between the intervention and the number of traffic violation tickets. Road safety climate spilled over to the family domain but did not cross over to influence family members' driving. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Climate and climate-related issues for the safety assessment SR-Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-12-01

The purpose of this report is to document current scientific knowledge on climate and climate-related conditions, relevant to the long-term safety of a KBS-3 repository, to a level required for an adequate treatment in the safety assessment SR-Site. The report also presents a number of dedicated studies on climate and selected climate-related processes of relevance for the assessment of long term repository safety. Based on this information, the report presents a number of possible future climate developments for Forsmark, the site selected for building a repository for spent nuclear fuel in Sweden (Figure 1-1). The presented climate developments are used as basis for the selection and analysis of SR-Site safety assessment scenarios in the SR-Site main report /SKB 2011/. The present report is based on research conducted and published by SKB as well as on research reported in the general scientific literature

Climate and climate-related issues for the safety assessment SR-Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2010-12-15

The purpose of this report is to document current scientific knowledge on climate and climate-related conditions, relevant to the long-term safety of a KBS-3 repository, to a level required for an adequate treatment in the safety assessment SR-Site. The report also presents a number of dedicated studies on climate and selected climate-related processes of relevance for the assessment of long term repository safety. Based on this information, the report presents a number of possible future climate developments for Forsmark, the site selected for building a repository for spent nuclear fuel in Sweden (Figure 1-1). The presented climate developments are used as basis for the selection and analysis of SR-Site safety assessment scenarios in the SR-Site main report /SKB 2011/. The present report is based on research conducted and published by SKB as well as on research reported in the general scientific literature

On climate prediction: how much can we expect from climate memory?

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Naiming; Huang, Yan; Duan, Jianping; Zhu, Congwen; Xoplaki, Elena; Luterbacher, Jürg

2018-03-01

Slowing variability in climate system is an important source of climate predictability. However, it is still challenging for current dynamical models to fully capture the variability as well as its impacts on future climate. In this study, instead of simulating the internal multi-scale oscillations in dynamical models, we discussed the effects of internal variability in terms of climate memory. By decomposing climate state x(t) at a certain time point t into memory part M(t) and non-memory part ɛ (t) , climate memory effects from the past 30 years on climate prediction are quantified. For variables with strong climate memory, high variance (over 20% ) in x(t) is explained by the memory part M(t), and the effects of climate memory are non-negligible for most climate variables, but the precipitation. Regarding of multi-steps climate prediction, a power law decay of the explained variance was found, indicating long-lasting climate memory effects. The explained variances by climate memory can remain to be higher than 10% for more than 10 time steps. Accordingly, past climate conditions can affect both short (monthly) and long-term (interannual, decadal, or even multidecadal) climate predictions. With the memory part M(t) precisely calculated from Fractional Integral Statistical Model, one only needs to focus on the non-memory part ɛ (t) , which is an important quantity that determines climate predictive skills.

Farmers' climate information needs for long-term adaptive decisions: A case study of almonds in CA

Science.gov (United States)

Jagannathan, K. A.; Jones, A. D.; Pathak, T. B.; Kerr, A. C.; Doll, D.

2016-12-01

Despite advances in climate modeling and projections, several sources report that current tools and models are not widely used in the agriculture sector. Farmers, depending on their local context, require information on very specific climatic metrics such as start of rains during the planting season, number of low temperature days during the growing season, etc. However, such specific climatic information is either not available, and/or is not synthesized and communicated in a manner that is accessible to these decision-makers. This research aims to bridge the gap between climate information and decision-making needs, by providing an improved understanding of what farmers' consider as relevant climate information, and how these needs compare with current modeling capabilities. Almond is a perennial crop, so any changes in climate within its 25-30 year lifetime can have an adverse impact on crop yield. This makes almond growers vulnerable to medium and long-term climate change. Hence, providing appropriate information on future climate projections can help guide their decisions on crop types & varieties, as well as management practices that are better adapted to future climatic conditions. Semi-structured exploratory interviews have been conducted with almond growers, farm advisors, and other industry stakeholders, with three goals: (1) to understand how growers have used climate information in the past; (2) to identify key climatic variables that are relevant - including appropriate temporal scales and acceptable uncertainty levels; and (3) to understand communication methods that could improve the usability of climate information for farm-level decision-making. The interviews showcased a great diversity amongst growers in terms of how they used weather/climate information. Discussions also indicated that there was a potential for climate information to impact long-term decisions, but only if it is provided within the right context, terminology, and communication

Research on Climate and Dengue in Malaysia: A Systematic Review

OpenAIRE

Hii, Yien Ling; Zaki, Rafdzah Ahmad; Aghamohammadi, Nasrin; Rockl?v, Joacim

2016-01-01

Background & Objectives Dengue is a climate-sensitive infectious disease. Climate-based dengue early warning may be a simple, low-cost, and effective tool for enhancing surveillance and control. Scientific studies on climate and dengue in local context form the basis for advancing the development of a climate-based early warning system. This study aims to review the current status of scientific studies in climate and dengue and the prospect or challenges of such research on a climate-based de...

Meeting of the 7. session of the scientific advisory committee of the world climate impact studies programme, Mauritius, 9-11 January 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

A brief outline of ongoing projects implemented by UNEP as part of the current phase of the World Climate Impact Studies Programme (WCIP) is given. The projects are classified under several main headings: (i) Greenhouse gas/climate change issue; (ii) Coordination of national climate programmes; (iii) Methodology of climate impact assessment. Following the agreement with Delft Laboratories and the publication of the UNEP supported study of areas vulnerable to sea level rise, a site specific study of sea level rise impacts was being considered for development. However, the project would become the responsibility of the UNEP Oceans and Coastal Areas Programme Activity Centre (OCA/PAC). Overview of sea level rise, the inventory of climate impact studies, newsletter, methodology of climate impact assessment were other topics discussed at the seventh session of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the World Climate Impact Studies Programme, Mauritius, 9-11 January 1990

The Study of Factor Structure and Reliability of an Abbreviated School Climate Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Cody; Liu, Ying; Berkowitz, Marvin

2011-01-01

The concept of school climate has been an important variable in research on quality of school life and student learning. One of the challenges in such a research effort is to develop instruments that could effectively and efficiently measure the construct. The purpose of the current study was to examine the factor structure and reliability of an…

WATER RESOURCES STATUS AND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT IN CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR BEAS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH WESTERN HIMALAYA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. P. Aggarwal

2016-10-01

precipitation and daily surface wind speed. The GFDL model also gives validation phase scenarios from 2006 to 2015, which are used to test the overall model performance with current data. The current assessment made by hydrological water balance based approach has given reasonable good results in Beas river basin. The main limitation of this study is lack of full representation of glacier melt flow using fully energy balance model. This component will be addressed in coming time and it will be integrated with tradition hydrological and snowmelt runoff models. The other limitation of current study is dependence on NCEP or other reanalysis of climate forcing data for hydrological modelling, this leads to mismatch between actual and simulated water balance components. This problem can be addressed if more ground based and fine resolution grid based hydro meteorological data are used as input forcing data for hydrological modelling.

Water Resources Status and Availability Assessment in Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios for Beas River Basin of North Western Himalaya

Science.gov (United States)

Aggarwal, S. P.; Thakur, P. K.; Garg, V.; Nikam, B. R.; Chouksey, A.; Dhote, P.; Bhattacharya, T.

2016-10-01

daily surface wind speed. The GFDL model also gives validation phase scenarios from 2006 to 2015, which are used to test the overall model performance with current data. The current assessment made by hydrological water balance based approach has given reasonable good results in Beas river basin. The main limitation of this study is lack of full representation of glacier melt flow using fully energy balance model. This component will be addressed in coming time and it will be integrated with tradition hydrological and snowmelt runoff models. The other limitation of current study is dependence on NCEP or other reanalysis of climate forcing data for hydrological modelling, this leads to mismatch between actual and simulated water balance components. This problem can be addressed if more ground based and fine resolution grid based hydro meteorological data are used as input forcing data for hydrological modelling.

Climate change and archaeology in Mesoamerica

Science.gov (United States)

Beach, Timothy

2016-03-01

I first encountered Mesoamerican paleoclimate in a graduate seminar taught by Herb Wright, Jr. in Geology at the University of Minnesota in 1984. Herb passed away in 2015 at 98 after decades of studying paleoclimate and many other aspects of Quaternary studies. In 1984 there were few Maya paleoclimate studies, and a Science article on Mayan Urbanism by Deevey et al. (1979) was still current. Mark Brenner was one of the authors of that piece and he has been constant over these decades, appearing again as a coauthor of two articles in this issue. Several recent articles have noted the expansion in Maya climate studies from the perspectives of Climate Science, to Paleotempestology, and to Archeology (Douglas et al., in this issue;Beach et al., 2015; Luzzadder-Beach et al., in press). This special issue grew out of the recognition of that explosion of studies and the need to bring some important current findings together in one issue. This special issue does that by incorporating new reviews and specific studies that help us refine the trends of climate change and the drivers of climate and their connections to what we know of human history and archeology in the region.

Climate Change and Health: Nurses as Drivers of Climate Action

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cara Cook

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Changes to Earth’s climate are occurring globally at unprecedented rates with significant impacts to human and population health, including increased likelihood of mental health illnesses, food and water insecurity, insect-borne and heat-related illnesses, and respiratory diseases. Those in the health sector are seeing the challenges patients and community members are experiencing as a result of current and projected climate threats. Health professionals, including nurses, have an opportunity to lead the charge to significantly improve society’s response to climate change and foster the strategies needed to promote health. This article highlights the current work of the Alliance of Nurses for Healthy Environments, a national nursing organization focused solely on environmental health concerns, in inspiring and empowering nurses across the country to engage in action to reduce their climate impact, move climate solutions forward, and improve the ability of health care institutions and communities to respond to the health impacts of climate change.

Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

Science.gov (United States)

George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

2012-12-01

Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better

Several Suggestions on the Climate Change and Its Studies

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2011-01-01

According to the abundant studies,the relevant information and comprehensive analysis of the climate changes,several important problems on the climate changes and its studies were proposed.Based on the temporal distribution of the meteorological disaster of agriculture,the wave theory was expounded so as to draw people's attention on climate changes and to be objective,just and careful about the study.

Climate change and food security in Tanzania: analysis of current ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A review of literature was conducted in order to identify knowledge gaps in climate change and food security research in Tanzania. The review focused on published literature covering the past 20 years addressing climate change effects on various components of the food security. The review of literature reveals, among ...

Study of landscape change under forest harvesting and climate warming-induced fire disturbance

Science.gov (United States)

S. He Hong; David J. Mladenoff; Eric J. Gustafson

2002-01-01

We examined tree species responses under forest harvesting and an increased fire disturbance scenario due to climate warming in northern Wisconsin where northern hardwood and boreal forests are currently predominant. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was simulated with a gap model, which integrates soil, climate and species data, stratified by...

Climate wise case study compendium: Report 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-02-01

This case study compendium is one of several Climate Wise tools available to help interested companies identify cost-effective options. Climate Wise, a private-public partnership program, is a key Federal initiative to return greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000.

Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

Why Classroom Climate Matters for Children High in Anxious Solitude: A Study of Differential Susceptibility

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Kathleen; Coplan, Robert J.

2018-01-01

The goal of the current study was to examine the complex links among anxious solitude, classroom climate, engagement, achievement, and gender. In particular, drawing upon the differential susceptibility hypothesis (Belsky, 1997), we investigated if children high in anxious solitude were particularly sensitive and responsive to the classroom…

Climate change effects on forests: A critical review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loehle, C. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); LeBlanc, D. [Ball State Univ., Muncie, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology

1996-02-01

While current projections of future climate change associated with increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases have a high degree of uncertainty, the potential effects of climate change on forests are of increasing concern. A number of studies based on forest simulation models predict substantial temperatures associated with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, the structure of these computer models may cause them to overemphasize the role of climate in controlling tree growth and mortality. We propose that forest simulation models be reformulated with more realistic representations of growth responses to temperature, moisture, mortality, and dispersal. We believe that only when these models more accurately reflect the physiological bases of the responses of tree species to climate variables can they be used to simulate responses of forests to rapid changes in climate. We argue that direct forest responses to climate change projected by such a reformulated model may be less traumatic and more gradual than those projected by current models. However, the indirect effects of climate change on forests, mediated by alterations of disturbance regimes or the actions of pests and pathogens, may accelerate climate-induced change in forests, and they deserve further study and inclusion within forest simulation models.

The regionalization of climate scenarios: towards impact studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cariolle, D.

1999-01-01

This article describes the different types of climate numerical models and their use to obtain scenarios for climate change due to the greenhouse gas increase. Results from global or meso-scale models are given. They illustrate the existing ways of representing climatic conditions at global and regional scales. Combined with statistical approaches based for example on the techniques of analogues, their use gives a coherent strategy going from global scale numerical simulations to the study of impacts at a local scale. In the future the increase of computer power should allow a better description of the small processes and a wider range of impact studies on natural ecosystems and various economic sectors. The results of these studies will be very useful to define a coherent policy in response to observed or predicted climate changes. (author)

Associations among unit leadership and unit climates for implementation in acute care: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Shuman, Clayton J; Liu, Xuefeng; Aebersold, Michelle L; Tschannen, Dana; Banaszak-Holl, Jane; Titler, Marita G

2018-04-25

Nurse managers have a pivotal role in fostering unit climates supportive of implementing evidence-based practices (EBPs) in care delivery. EBP leadership behaviors and competencies of nurse managers and their impact on practice climates are widely overlooked in implementation science. The purpose of this study was to examine the contributions of nurse manager EBP leadership behaviors and nurse manager EBP competencies in explaining unit climates for EBP implementation in adult medical-surgical units. A multi-site, multi-unit cross-sectional research design was used to recruit the sample of 24 nurse managers and 553 randomly selected staff nurses from 24 adult medical-surgical units from 7 acute care hospitals in the Northeast and Midwestern USA. Staff nurse perceptions of nurse manager EBP leadership behaviors and unit climates for EBP implementation were measured using the Implementation Leadership Scale and Implementation Climate Scale, respectively. EBP competencies of nurse managers were measured using the Nurse Manager EBP Competency Scale. Participants were emailed a link to an electronic questionnaire and asked to respond within 1 month. The contributions of nurse manager EBP leadership behaviors and competencies in explaining unit climates for EBP implementation were estimated using mixed-effects models controlling for nurse education and years of experience on current unit and accounting for the variability across hospitals and units. Significance level was set at α < .05. Two hundred sixty-four staff nurses and 22 nurse managers were included in the final sample, representing 22 units in 7 hospitals. Nurse manager EBP leadership behaviors (p < .001) and EBP competency (p = .008) explained 52.4% of marginal variance in unit climate for EBP implementation. Leadership behaviors uniquely explained 45.2% variance. The variance accounted for by the random intercepts for hospitals and units (p < .001) and years of nursing experience in current unit

Future Climate Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cambell, C. G.

2004-01-01

This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Noel C.; Taylor, Patrick C.

2015-01-01

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and

An Assessment of Regional Water Resources and Agricultural Sustainability in the Mississippi River Alluvial Aquifer System of Mississippi and Arkansas Under Current and Future Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Rigby, J.; Reba, M.

2011-12-01

The Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Plain is a highly productive agricultural region for rice, soy beans, and cotton that depends heavily on irrigation. Development of the Mississippi River Alluvial Aquifer (MRAA), one of the more prolific agricultural aquifers in the country, has traditionally been the primary source for irrigation in the region yielding over 1,100 Mgal/day to irrigation wells. Increasingly, the realities of changing climate and rapidly declining water tables have highlighted the necessity for new water management practices. Tail-water recovery and reuse is a rapidly expanding practice due in part to the efforts and cost-sharing of the NRCS, but regional studies of the potential for such practices to alleviate groundwater mining under current and future climate are lacking. While regional studies of aquifer geology have long been available, including assessments of regional groundwater flow, much about the aquifer is still not well understood including controls on recharge rates, a crucial component of water management design. We review the trends in regional availability of surface and groundwater resources, their current status, and the effects of recent changes in management practices on groundwater decline in Mississippi and Arkansas. Global and regional climate projections are used to assess scenarios of sustainable aquifer use under current land use and management along with the potential for more widely practiced surface water capture and reuse to alleviate groundwater decline. Finally, we highlight crucial knowledge gaps and challenges associated with the development of water management practices for sustainable agricultural use in the region.

Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in China. Current status and the way ahead

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kejun Jiang; Xiulian Hu; Xianli Zhu; Garg, A.; Halsnaes, K.; Qiang Liu

2007-09-01

This report is the China Country Report of the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing economies. Under this project four country studies have been carried out, on China, India, Brazil, and South Africa respectively. The focus of this report is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. The report gives a short introduction to the project and its approach, followed by analyses of Chinese energy, development and climate change and an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. (BA)

Species distributions and climate change:current patterns and future scenarios for biodiversity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hof, Christian

by shifts of their distributional ranges, which affects the spatial patterns of species richness and turnover. Global temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 - 4°C until the end of the century; hence climate change will most likely leave further imprints on species and ecosystems. This PhD thesis aims......-thirds of the areas harboring the richest amphibian faunas may be heavily impacted by at least one of the major threats by 2080. The stability of the climatic niche influences the need for a species to track climate change via dispersal, or its potential to adapt to novel climatic conditions. I therefore explore...... the phylogenetic signal in climatic niches of the world's amphibians, which serves as a surrogate quantification of niche stability. Results indicate an overall tendency of phylogenetic signal to be present in realised climatic niches, but signal strength varies across biogeographical regions and among amphibian...

Targeting climate diversity in conservation planning to build resilience to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Heller, Nicole E.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Ackerly, David; Weiss, Stuart; Recinos, Amanda; Branciforte, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Micheli, Elisabeth

2015-01-01

Climate change is raising challenging concerns for systematic conservation planning. Are methods based on the current spatial patterns of biodiversity effective given long-term climate change? Some conservation scientists argue that planning should focus on protecting the abiotic diversity in the landscape, which drives patterns of biological diversity, rather than focusing on the distribution of focal species, which shift in response to climate change. Climate is one important abiotic driver of biodiversity patterns, as different climates host different biological communities and genetic pools. We propose conservation networks that capture the full range of climatic diversity in a region will improve the resilience of biotic communities to climate change compared to networks that do not. In this study we used historical and future hydro-climate projections from the high resolution Basin Characterization Model to explore the utility of directly targeting climatic diversity in planning. Using the spatial planning tool, Marxan, we designed conservation networks to capture the diversity of climate types, at the regional and sub-regional scale, and compared them to networks we designed to capture the diversity of vegetation types. By focusing on the Conservation Lands Network (CLN) of the San Francisco Bay Area as a real-world case study, we compared the potential resilience of networks by examining two factors: the range of climate space captured, and climatic stability to 18 future climates, reflecting different emission scenarios and global climate models. We found that the climate-based network planned at the sub-regional scale captured a greater range of climate space and showed higher climatic stability than the vegetation and regional based-networks. At the same time, differences among network scenarios are small relative to the variance in climate stability across global climate models. Across different projected futures, topographically heterogeneous areas

Does the Bush Administration's climate policy mean climate protection?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanchard, Odile; Perkaus, James F.

2004-01-01

The paper analyzes the two major components of the Bush Administration's climate policy, namely an emission intensity target and a technology strategy. The question is whether those components will generate net emission reductions that will contribute to the stabilization of the greenhouse gas concentration at a safe level in the long run. It comes out that the Bush Administration climate policy does not guarantee any meaningful contribution to climate protection. The lenient emission intensity target set by the Administration will most likely allow near term emissions to grow. In the long run, the Bush Administration places a big bet on future climate-friendly technological breakthroughs to cost-effectively compensate for the current and near term net emission increases. But the outcomes of those technological developments are uncertain in terms of emission reduction potential, cost, and timing. The way towards enhanced climate protection will most likely not come from the policies of the current Administration, but rather from the growing concern about the climate issue in Congress and at the state, corporate and civil society levels. These combined forces may raise the playing field at the federal level in the near future

Will dragonblood survive the next period of climate change? Current and future potential distribution of Dracaena cinnabari (Socotra, Yemen)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Attorre, F.; Francesconi, F.; Taleb, N.; Scholte, P.; Saed, A.; Alfo, M.; Bruno, F.

2007-01-01

The potential impact of climate change on Dracaena cinnabari, a spectacular relict of the Mio-Pliocene Laurasian subtropical forest in Socotra (Yemen), was analysed. Current distribution, abundance and vertical structure of D. cinnabari populations were assessed with 74 plots in nine remnant areas.

World Regionalization of Climate Change(1961–2010)

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Peijun; Shi; Shao; Sun; Daoyi; Gong; Tao; Zhou

2016-01-01

Traditional climate classification or regionalization characterizes the mean state of climate condition, which cannot meet the demand of addressing climate change currently. We have developed a climate change classification method, as well as the fundamental principles, an indicator system, and mapping techniques of climate change regionalization. This study used annual mean temperature and total precipitation as climatic indices, and linear trend and variation change as change indices to characterize climate change quantitatively. The study has proposed a scheme for world climate change regionalization based on a half century of climate data(1961–2010). Level-I regionalization divides the world into 12 tendency zones based on the linear trend of climate, level-II regionalization resulted in 28 fluctuation regions based on the variation change of climate. Climate change regionalization provides a scientific basis for countries and regions to develop plans for adapting to climate change, especially for managing climate-related disaster or environmental risks.

Mitigating climate change: The Philippine case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia, J.L.L.

1998-01-01

The Government of the Philippines signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate change on June 12, 1992 and the Philippine Congress ratified it in 1994. The Philippine Government has also subsequently created the Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change (IACCC). The GOP is currently preparing the Philippine Country Study to address climate change. The first phase of the work was financed by a grant from the US Country Studies Program which is led by the US Department of Energy. The Study includes the following elements: a) development of a National Inventory of GHG emission and Sinks; b) vulnerability assessment and evaluation of adaptations of coastal resources; c) identification of alternative programs and measures to promote mitigation and/or adaptation to climate change; d) public information and education campaign; and e) development of the National Action Plan on Climate Change. (au)

Modeling Nitrogen Losses in Conventional and Advanced Soil-Based Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems under Current and Changing Climate Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Morales, Ivan; Cooper, Jennifer; Amador, José A; Boving, Thomas B

2016-01-01

Most of the non-point source nitrogen (N) load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Nitrogen compounds cause eutrophication, depleting the oxygen in marine ecosystems. OWTS rely on physical, chemical and biological soil processes to treat wastewater and these processes may be affected by climate change. We simulated the fate and transport of N in different types of OWTS drainfields, or soil treatment areas (STA) under current and changing climate scenarios, using 2D/3D HYDRUS software. Experimental data from a mesocosm-scale study, including soil moisture content, and total N, ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-) concentrations, were used to calibrate the model. A water content-dependent function was used to compute the nitrification and denitrification rates. Three types of drainfields were simulated: (1) a pipe-and-stone (P&S), (2) advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (PSND) and (3) Geomat (GEO), a variation of SND. The model was calibrated with acceptable goodness-of-fit between the observed and measured values. Average root mean square error (RSME) ranged from 0.18 and 2.88 mg L-1 for NH4+ and 4.45 mg L-1 to 9.65 mg L-1 for NO3- in all drainfield types. The calibrated model was used to estimate N fluxes for both conventional and advanced STAs under current and changing climate conditions, i.e. increased soil temperature and higher water table. The model computed N losses from nitrification and denitrification differed little from measured losses in all STAs. The modeled N losses occurred mostly as NO3- in water outputs, accounting for more than 82% of N inputs in all drainfields. Losses as N2 were estimated to be 10.4% and 9.7% of total N input concentration for SND and Geo, respectively. The highest N2 losses, 17.6%, were estimated for P&S. Losses as N2 increased to 22%, 37% and 21% under changing climate conditions for Geo, PSND and P&S, respectively. These findings can provide practitioners

Climate and current anthropogenic impacts on fisheries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brander, Keith

2013-01-01

. As with terrestrial systems, it will not be easy to find acceptable balances between food production and conservation objectives. Climate change imposes a new set of pressures on marine ecosystems; increasing temperature, reduced salinity in some enclosed seas and coastal areas, changing windfields and seasonality...... of research that will help us to adapt and on the development of practices and management that will insure against future change...

Climate research in Bavaria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The book contains the lectures held at a meeting on the Bavarian Climate Research Programme. The lectures deal with climate history; current global and regional influences on climate; climate modeling; impact of air pollution; and the changes in infra-red radiation and their effects on man and plants. (KW) [de

Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helge Walentowski

2017-07-01

Full Text Available We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea, whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

Climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

2012-01-01

This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth

Facilitating a stakeholder-led approach to the development of Mediterranean climate services: co-ordinating the CLIM-RUN case studies

Science.gov (United States)

Goodess, C. M.

2012-04-01

The CLIM-RUN case studies provide a real-world context for bringing together experts on the demand and supply side of climate services. They are essential to the CLIM-RUN objective of using iterative and bottom-up (i.e., stakeholder led) approaches for optimizing the two-way information transfer between climate experts and stakeholders. The region of interest for CLIM-RUN is the Mediterranean, which is a recognised climate change hotspot (i.e., a region particularly sensitive and vulnerable to global warming) and which does not currently have developed climate service networks such as exist in a number of Central and Northern European countries. The case studies focus on the energy and tourism sectors, but also include a cross-cutting study on wild fires (an issue of increasing concern in the Mediterranean) as well as a cross-sectorial integrated case study for the Venice lagoon. They span coastal (e.g., Tunisia and Croatia), island (e.g., Cyprus) and mountain (e.g., Savoie) environments, the eastern (e.g., Greece) to western (e.g., Spain, Morocco) Mediterranean regions, and regional to local foci. Stakeholder involvement has been critical from the start of the project in March 2011, with a series of targeted workshops helping to define the framework for each case study. Two specific workshop objectives were to (i) better understand who are the climate services stakeholders and (ii) what they need/want from climate services (both in terms of data products and broader knowledge). Many of the workshops were held in local languages to maximise stakeholder participation, with expert knowledge provided by the CLIM-RUN climate and stakeholder expert teams (the CET and SET). Following the workshops, CET members are 'translating' the user needs into specific requirements from climate observations and models and identifying areas where additional modelling and analysis are required. As part of the central co-ordination of the case studies, a perception and data needs

Climate change research in Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dawson, K.

1994-01-01

The current consensus on climatic change in Canada is briefly summarized, noting the results of modelling of the effects of a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 , the nonuniformity of climate change across the country, the uncertainties in local responses to change, and the general agreement that 2-4 degrees of warming will occur for each doubling of CO 2 . Canadian government response includes programs aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the scientific understanding of climate change and in the socio-economic response to such change. Canadian climate change programs include participation in large-scale experiments on such topics as heat transport in the ocean, and sources and sinks of greenhouse gases; development of next-generation climate models; studying the social and economic effects of climate change in the Great Lakes Basin and Mackenzie River Basin; investigation of paleoclimates; and analysis of climate data for long-term trends

Current and future groundwater recharge in West Africa as estimated from a range of coupled climate model outputs

Science.gov (United States)

Verhoef, Anne; Cook, Peter; Black, Emily; Macdonald, David; Sorensen, James

2017-04-01

This research addresses the terrestrial water balance for West Africa. Emphasis is on the prediction of groundwater recharge and how this may change in the future, which has relevance to the management of surface and groundwater resources. The study was conducted as part of the BRAVE research project, "Building understanding of climate variability into planning of groundwater supplies from low storage aquifers in Africa - Second Phase", funded under the NERC/DFID/ESRC Programme, Unlocking the Potential of Groundwater for the Poor (UPGro). We used model output data of water balance components (precipitation, surface and subsurface run-off, evapotranspiration and soil moisture content) from ERA-Interim/ERA-LAND reanalysis, CMIP5, and high resolution model runs with HadGEM3 (UPSCALE; Mizielinski et al., 2014), for current and future time-periods. Water balance components varied widely between the different models; variation was particularly large for sub-surface runoff (defined as drainage from the bottom-most soil layer of each model). In-situ data for groundwater recharge obtained from the peer-reviewed literature were compared with the model outputs. Separate off-line model sensitivity studies with key land surface models were performed to gain understanding of the reasons behind the model differences. These analyses were centered on vegetation, and soil hydraulic parameters. The modelled current and future recharge time series that had the greatest degree of confidence were used to examine the spatiotemporal variability in groundwater storage. Finally, the implications for water supply planning were assessed. Mizielinski, M.S. et al., 2014. High-resolution global climate modelling: the UPSCALE project, a large-simulation campaign. Geoscientific Model Development, 7(4), pp.1629-1640.

Climate adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Kinzig, Ann P.

2015-03-01

This paper is intended as a brief introduction to climate adaptation in a conference devoted otherwise to the physics of sustainable energy. Whereas mitigation involves measures to reduce the probability of a potential event, such as climate change, adaptation refers to actions that lessen the impact of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation differ in other ways as well. Adaptation does not necessarily have to be implemented immediately to be effective; it only needs to be in place before the threat arrives. Also, adaptation does not necessarily require global, coordinated action; many effective adaptation actions can be local. Some urban communities, because of land-use change and the urban heat-island effect, currently face changes similar to some expected under climate change, such as changes in water availability, heat-related morbidity, or changes in disease patterns. Concern over those impacts might motivate the implementation of measures that would also help in climate adaptation, despite skepticism among some policy makers about anthropogenic global warming. Studies of ancient civilizations in the southwestern US lends some insight into factors that may or may not be important to successful adaptation.

Modifications in climate suitability for wine production of Romanian wine regions as a result of climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irimia Liviu Mihai

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to reveal the shifts in climate suitability for wine production affecting Romanian wine growing regions. For this, we analyzed the spatial distribution over Romanian territory of the oenoclimate aptitude index (IAOe for the 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2013 time periods. The IAOe has been calculated based on gridded data at 10 × 10 km resolution of average daily temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration between 1961–2013, originating from about 150 weather stations across Romanian territory and recorded in the ROCADA database. The study reveals: northward shifts and to higher altitudes of suitability for wine production; the appearance of new areas suitable for wine production; the expansion or the shrinkage of the current areas suitable for wine production; shifts in classes of suitability for wine production in the current wine regions and appearance of premises of replacing their specific varieties and traditional wine type production; the tendency to level climate suitability at regional scale by diminishing suitability for white wines and replacing it with climate suitability for red wines. The study provides a solid support for developing strategies to adapt Romanian viticulture to climate change.

Future Climate Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

C. G. Cambell

2004-09-03

This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past

The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Engels Stefan

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate, highlighting the effects of solar forcing on a range of timescales. On a decadal timescale, instrumental measurements as well as historical records show the effects of the 11-year Schwabe cycle on climate. The variation in total solar irradiance that is associated with a Schwabe cycle is only ~1 W m−2 between a solar minimum and a maximum, but winter and spring temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere show a response even to this small-scale variability. There is a large body of evidence from palaeoclimatic reconstructions that shows the influence of solar activity on a centennial to millennial timescale. We highlight a period of low solar activity starting at 2800 years before present when Europe experienced a shift to colder and wetter climate conditions. The spatial pattern of climate change that can be recognized in the palaeoclimatological data is in line with the suggested pattern of climate change as simulated by climate models. Millennial-scale climate oscillations can be recognized in sediment records from the Atlantic Ocean as well as in records of lake-level fluctuations in southeastern France. These oscillations coincide with variation in 14C production as recognized in the atmospheric 14C record (which is a proxy-record for solar activity, suggesting that Earth’s climate is sensitive to changes in solar activity on a millennial timescale as well.

Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

Science.gov (United States)

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

2014-01-01

The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing

Prototyping global Earth System Models at high resolution: Representation of climate, ecosystems, and acidification in Eastern Boundary Currents

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, J. P.; John, J. G.; Stock, C. A.

2013-12-01

The world's major Eastern Boundary Currents (EBC) such as the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) are critically important areas for global fisheries. Computational limitations have divided past EBC modeling into two types: high resolution regional approaches that resolve the strong meso-scale structures involved, and coarse global approaches that represent the large scale context for EBCs, but only crudely resolve only the largest scales of their manifestation. These latter global studies have illustrated the complex mechanisms involved in the climate change and acidification response in these regions, with the CCLME response dominated not by local adjustments but large scale reorganization of ocean circulation through remote forcing of water-mass supply pathways. While qualitatively illustrating the limitations of regional high resolution studies in long term projection, these studies lack the ability to robustly quantify change because of the inability of these models to represent the baseline meso-scale structures of EBCs. In the present work, we compare current generation coarse resolution (one degree) and a prototype next generation high resolution (1/10 degree) Earth System Models (ESMs) from NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in representing the four major EBCs. We review the long-known temperature biases that the coarse models suffer in being unable to represent the timing and intensity of upwelling-favorable winds, along with lack of representation of the observed high chlorophyll and biological productivity resulting from this upwelling. In promising contrast, we show that the high resolution prototype is capable of representing not only the overall meso-scale structure in physical and biogeochemical fields, but also the appropriate offshore extent of temperature anomalies and other EBC characteristics. Results for chlorophyll were mixed; while high resolution chlorophyll in EBCs were strongly enhanced over the coarse resolution

Sustainable development and climate change: Lessons from country studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Halsnæs, Kirsten; Shukla, P.; Garg, A.

2008-01-01

Sustainable development has been suggested as a framework for integrating development and climate change policies in developing countries. Mainstreaming climate change into sustainable development policies would allow these countries to achieve their development goals while addressing climate...... change. A number of research programmes have investigated how potential synergies could be achieved at national level and what kind of trade-offs between the various aspects of sustainable development have to be faced. An overview of these studies is provided, focusing on national case studies....... The energy and transportation sectors are covered in many studies, but some attention is also given to the infrastructure sector and water supply. Most existing development policies will not lead to a sustainable development pattern, since they insufficiently address climate change. However, good...

Multi crop model climate risk country-level management design: case study on the Tanzanian maize production system

Science.gov (United States)

Chavez, E.

2015-12-01

Future climate projections indicate that a very serious consequence of post-industrial anthropogenic global warming is the likelihood of the greater frequency and intensity of extreme hydrometeorological events such as heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods. The design of national and international policies targeted at building more resilient and environmentally sustainable food systems needs to rely on access to robust and reliable data which is largely absent. In this context, the improvement of the modelling of current and future agricultural production losses using the unifying language of risk is paramount. In this study, we use a methodology that allows the integration of the current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, agro-environment, crops, and the economy to determine short to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different environmental, climate, and adaptation scenarios. This methodology is applied to Tanzania to assess optimum risk reduction and maize production increase paths in different climate scenarios. The simulations carried out use inputs from three different crop models (DSSAT, APSIM, WRSI) run in different technological scenarios and thus allowing to estimate crop model-driven risk exposure estimation bias. The results obtained also allow distinguishing different region-specific optimum climate risk reduction policies subject to historical as well as RCP2.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The region-specific risk profiles obtained provide a simple framework to determine cost-effective risk management policies for Tanzania and allow to optimally combine investments in risk reduction and risk transfer.

Dynamic Adaptive Approach to Transportation-Infrastructure Planning for Climate Change: San Francisco Bay Area Case Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wall, T.A.; Walker, W.E.; Marchau, V.A.W.J.; Bertolini, L.

2015-01-01

Adaptation of existing infrastructure is a response to climate change that can ensure a viable, safe, and robust transportation network. However, deep uncertainties associated with climate change pose significant challenges to adaptation planning. Specifically, current transportation planning

Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, G.V. [Department of Geography, Southern Oregon University, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, Oregon, 97520 (United States); White, M.A. [Department of Aquatic, Watershed, and Earth Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322 (United States); Cooper, O.R. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES, University of Colorado/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 80305 (United States); Storchmann, K. [Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520 (United States)

2005-12-01

From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.

Risk management perspective for climate service development - Results from a study on Finnish organizations

Science.gov (United States)

Harjanne, Atte; Haavisto, Riina; Tuomenvirta, Heikki; Gregow, Hilppa

2017-10-01

Weather, climate and climate change can cause significant risks to businesses and public administration. However, understanding these processes can also create opportunities. Information can help to manage these risks and opportunities, but in order to do so, it must be in line with how risk management and decision making works. To better understand how climate risks and opportunities are reflected in different organizational processes and what types of information is needed and used, we conducted a study on the perceptions and management of weather and climate risks in Finnish organizations and on their use of weather and climate information. In addition, we collected feedback on how the existing climate information tools should be developed. Data on climate risk management was collected in an online survey and in one full-day workshop. The survey was aimed to the Finnish public and private organizations who use weather and climate data and altogether 118 responses were collected. The workshop consisted of two parts: weather and climate risk management processes in general and the development of the current information tools to further address user needs.We found that climate risk management in organizations is quite diverse and often de-centralized and that external experts are considered the most useful sources of information. Consequently, users emphasize the need for networks of expertise and sector-specific information tools. Creating such services requires input and information sharing from the user side as well. Better temporal and spatial accuracy is naturally asked for, but users also stressed the need for transparency when it comes to communicating uncertainties, and the availability and up-to-datedness of information. Our results illustrate that weather and climate risks compete and blend in with other risks and changes perceived by the organizations and supporting information is sought from different types of sources. Thus the design and evaluation of

Climate Change Awareness among the High School Students: Case Study from a Climate Vulnerable Country

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.M.A. Rahman

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Bangladesh is one the worst sufferers of climate change. Climate change awareness creation is pivotal to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Effective dissemination of knowledge among the citizens during high school years is crucial to that end. In Bangladesh, secondary school students follow common curricula which include entries on climate change. This paper investigates the role of the diverse demographic profiles and inherent scholastic background of students on their informedness. The research is based on responses from secondary schools students in Chittagong, Bangladesh. Based on their understanding of climate change, we have constructed the Climate Awareness Index (CAI. Then the relative roles of demographic determinants of the awareness have been compared using the CAI. The quality of schools, and grade, major and merit position of students have affected the CAI values. Besides, the study concluded that the religion, gender, parental education, occupation and income, etc. could affect students’ climate change informedness in Bangladesh.

Quantifying climate risk - the starting point

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fairweather, Helen; Luo, Qunying; Liu, De Li; Wiles, Perry

2007-01-01

Full text: All natural systems have evolved to their current state as a result inter alia of the climate in which they developed. Similarly, man-made systems (such as agricultural production) have developed to suit the climate experienced over the last 100 or so years. The capacity of different systems to adapt to changes in climate that are outside those that have been experienced previously is largely unknown. This results in considerable uncertainty when predicting climate change impacts. However, it is possible to quantify the relative probabilities of a range of potential impacts of climate change. Quantifying current climate risks is an effective starting point for analysing the probable impacts of future climate change and guiding the selection of appropriate adaptation strategies. For a farming system to be viable within the current climate, its profitability must be sustained and, therefore, possible adaptation strategies need to be tested for continued viability in a changed climate. The methodology outlined in this paper examines historical patterns of key climate variables (rainfall and temperature) across the season and their influence on the productivity of wheat growing in NSW. This analysis is used to identify the time of year that the system is most vulnerable to climate variation, within the constraints of the current climate. Wheat yield is used as a measure of productivity, which is also assumed to be a surrogate for profitability. A time series of wheat yields is sorted into ascending order and categorised into five percentile groupings (i.e. 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles) for each shire across NSW (-100 years). Five time series of climate data (which are aggregated daily data from the years in each percentile) are analysed to determine the period that provides the greatest climate risk to the production system. Once this period has been determined, this risk is quantified in terms of the degree of separation of the time series

Climate change and the emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe: case study of dengue fever.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouzid, Maha; Colón-González, Felipe J; Lung, Tobias; Lake, Iain R; Hunter, Paul R

2014-08-22

Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease worldwide. Dengue transmission is critically dependent on climatic factors and there is much concern as to whether climate change would spread the disease to areas currently unaffected. The occurrence of autochthonous infections in Croatia and France in 2010 has raised concerns about a potential re-emergence of dengue in Europe. The objective of this study is to estimate dengue risk in Europe under climate change scenarios. We used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to estimate dengue fever risk as a function of climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity) and socioeconomic factors (population density, urbanisation, GDP per capita and population size), under contemporary conditions (1985-2007) in Mexico. We then used our model estimates to project dengue incidence under baseline conditions (1961-1990) and three climate change scenarios: short-term 2011-2040, medium-term 2041-2070 and long-term 2071-2100 across Europe. The model was used to calculate average number of yearly dengue cases at a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km grid covering all land surface of the currently 27 EU member states. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model dengue fever risk in Europe in terms of disease occurrence rather than mosquito presence. The results were presented using Geographical Information System (GIS) and allowed identification of areas at high risk. Dengue fever hot spots were clustered around the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas and the Po Valley in northern Italy. This risk assessment study is likely to be a valuable tool assisting effective and targeted adaptation responses to reduce the likely increased burden of dengue fever in a warmer world.

A Web-Based Geovisual Analytical System for Climate Studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenlong Li

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Climate studies involve petabytes of spatiotemporal datasets that are produced and archived at distributed computing resources. Scientists need an intuitive and convenient tool to explore the distributed spatiotemporal data. Geovisual analytical tools have the potential to provide such an intuitive and convenient method for scientists to access climate data, discover the relationships between various climate parameters, and communicate the results across different research communities. However, implementing a geovisual analytical tool for complex climate data in a distributed environment poses several challenges. This paper reports our research and development of a web-based geovisual analytical system to support the analysis of climate data generated by climate model. Using the ModelE developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS as an example, we demonstrate that the system is able to (1 manage large volume datasets over the Internet; (2 visualize 2D/3D/4D spatiotemporal data; (3 broker various spatiotemporal statistical analyses for climate research; and (4 support interactive data analysis and knowledge discovery. This research also provides an example for managing, disseminating, and analyzing Big Data in the 21st century.

Assessing the metrics of climate change. Current methods and future possibilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuglestveit, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Godal, Odd; Sausen, Robert; Shine, Keith P.; Skodvin, Tora

2001-01-01

With the principle of comprehensiveness embedded in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Art. 3), a multi-gas abatement strategy with emphasis also on non-CO2 greenhouse gases as targets for reduction and control measures has been adopted in the international climate regime. In the Kyoto Protocol, the comprehensive approach is made operative as the aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of six specified greenhouse gases or groups of gases (Art. 3). With this operationalisation, the emissions of a set of greenhouse gases with very different atmospheric lifetimes and radiative properties are transformed into one common unit - CO2 equivalents. This transformation is based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP) index, which in turn is based on the concept of radiative forcing. The GWP metric and its application in policy making has been debated, and several other alternative concepts have been suggested. In this paper, we review existing and alternative metrics of climate change, with particular emphasis on radiative forcing and GWPs, in terms of their scientific performance. This assessment focuses on questions such as the climate impact (end point) against which gases are weighted; the extent to which and how temporality is included, both with regard to emission control and with regard to climate impact; how cost issues are dealt with; and the sensitivity of the metrics to various assumptions. It is concluded that the radiative forcing concept is a robust and useful metric of the potential climatic impact of various agents and that there are prospects for improvement by weighing different forcings according to their effectiveness. We also find that although the GWP concept is associated with serious shortcomings, it retains advantages over any of the proposed alternatives in terms of political feasibility. Alternative metrics, however, make a significant contribution to addressing important issues, and this contribution should be taken

Assessing the metrics of climate change. Current methods and future possibilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fuglestveit, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Godal, Odd; Sausen, Robert; Shine, Keith P.; Skodvin, Tora

2001-07-01

With the principle of comprehensiveness embedded in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Art. 3), a multi-gas abatement strategy with emphasis also on non-CO2 greenhouse gases as targets for reduction and control measures has been adopted in the international climate regime. In the Kyoto Protocol, the comprehensive approach is made operative as the aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of six specified greenhouse gases or groups of gases (Art. 3). With this operationalisation, the emissions of a set of greenhouse gases with very different atmospheric lifetimes and radiative properties are transformed into one common unit - CO2 equivalents. This transformation is based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP) index, which in turn is based on the concept of radiative forcing. The GWP metric and its application in policy making has been debated, and several other alternative concepts have been suggested. In this paper, we review existing and alternative metrics of climate change, with particular emphasis on radiative forcing and GWPs, in terms of their scientific performance. This assessment focuses on questions such as the climate impact (end point) against which gases are weighted; the extent to which and how temporality is included, both with regard to emission control and with regard to climate impact; how cost issues are dealt with; and the sensitivity of the metrics to various assumptions. It is concluded that the radiative forcing concept is a robust and useful metric of the potential climatic impact of various agents and that there are prospects for improvement by weighing different forcings according to their effectiveness. We also find that although the GWP concept is associated with serious shortcomings, it retains advantages over any of the proposed alternatives in terms of political feasibility. Alternative metrics, however, make a significant contribution to addressing important issues, and this contribution should be taken

Estimations of climate sensitivity based on top-of-atmosphere radiation imbalance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Lin

2010-02-01

Full Text Available Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the accuracy in predicting the response of the Earth's climate to the increase of CO₂ concentration within the atmosphere. This study explores a potential to reduce uncertainties in climate sensitivity estimations using energy balance analysis, especially top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiation imbalance. The time-scales studied generally cover from decade to century, that is, middle-range climate sensitivity is considered, which is directly related to the climate issue caused by atmospheric CO₂ change. The significant difference between current analysis and previous energy balance models is that the current study targets at the boundary condition problem instead of solving the initial condition problem. Additionally, climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport are considered. The climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance and surface temperature measurements of the present climate. In this study, the TOA imbalance value of 0.85 W/m² is used. Note that this imbalance value has large uncertainties. Based on this value, a positive climate feedback with a feedback coefficient ranging from −1.3 to −1.0 W/m²/K is found. The range of feedback coefficient is determined by climate system memory. The longer the memory, the stronger the positive feedback. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70~120 years mainly owing to the deep ocean heat transport, implying that the system may be not in an equilibrium state under the external forcing during the industrial era. For the doubled-CO₂ climate (or 3.7 W/m² forcing, the estimated global warming would be 3.1 K if the current estimate of 0.85 W/m² TOA net radiative heating could be confirmed. With accurate long-term measurements of TOA radiation, the analysis method suggested by this study provides a great potential in the

Current Research Studies

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... Success Home > Explore Research > Current Research Studies Current Research Studies Email Print + Share The Crohn’s & Colitis Foundation ... conducted online. Learn more about IBD Partners. Clinical Research Alliance The Clinical Research Alliance is a network ...

Conservation policies and planning under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Strange, Niels; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Bladt, Jesper Stentoft

2011-01-01

Biodiversity conservation policies focus on securing the survival of species and habitats according to their current distribution. This basic premise may be inappropriate for halting biodiversity decline under the dynamic changes caused by climate change. This study explores a dynamic spatial...... conservation prioritization problem where climate change gradually changes the future habitat suitability of a site’ current species. This has implications for survival probability, as well as for species that potentially immigrate to the site. The problem is explored using a set of heuristics for both of two...... networks. Climate change induced shifts in the suitability of habitats for species may increase the value of such adaptive strategies, the benefit decreasing with increasing migration probabilities and species distribution dynamics....

Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity

Science.gov (United States)

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2015-01-01

The effect of anthropogenic climate change on organisms will likely be related to climate change exposure and velocity at local and regional scales. However, common methods to estimate climate change exposure and velocity ignore important components of climate that are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms.We develop a novel index of climate change (climate overlap) that simultaneously estimates changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables. Specifically, we estimate the overlap between multivariate normal probability distributions representing historical and current or projected future climates. We provide methods for estimating the statistical significance of climate overlap values and methods to estimate velocity using climate overlap.We show that climates have changed significantly across 80% of the continental United States in the last 32 years and that much of this change is due to changes in the variation and correlation between weather variables (two statistics that are rarely incorporated into climate change studies). We also show that projected future temperatures are predicted to be locally novel (using climate overlap compared to 1·4 km yr−1 when estimated using traditional methods.Our results suggest that accounting for changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect estimates of climate change exposure and velocity. These climate components are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms, but are ignored by most measures of climate change. We conclude with a set of future directions and recommend future work to determine which measures of climate change exposure and velocity are most related to biological responses to climate change.

Preparing suitable climate scenario data to assess impacts on local food safety

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, C.; Hofstra, N.; Leemans, R.

2015-01-01

Quantification of climate change impacts on food safety requires food safety assessment with different past and future climate scenario data to compare current and future conditions. This study presents a tool to prepare climate and climate change data for local food safety scenario analysis and

Pilot study on indoor climate investigation and computer simulation in historical museum building: Amerongen Castle, the Netherlands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raha Sulaiman

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The indoor climate is one of the most important factors contributing to climate-induced damage to the building materials and cultural collections of a monumental building. The Dutch monumental building - Amerongen Castle, and the collections housed in it show severe deterioration caused by inappropriate historical indoor environment. Assessments of the indoor climate, especially on the room temperature and relative humidity, are necessary to analyze the causes and impacts of climate change. As the building was flooded in year 1993 and 1996, extra attention is paid to investigate the effects of flooding to it. This pilot study was aimed to identify the buildup linkages between the known past, historical data on indoor environment and indoor climate performance in the building through simulation based-prediction. This paper focuses on the methodology of indoor climate investigation from the past to the current situation. A hypothesis was developed on backcasting-based prediction simulation which can be used to identify the accepted historical indoor climate where during those times there probably was no damage to the building and the collection. A simulation method based on heat, air and moisture transport is used with the HAMBase program. The computer model representing the Grand Salon of Amerongen Castle was calibrated by comparing real measurements to simulation results. It shows that the differences were only to the minimum of -1.8C and maximum of 3.2C. The data for the historical outdoor weather files was obtained by interpolating outdoor ancient climatology constructed by MATLAB. Based on archival research, indoor thermal history was gathered as input for the profiles used in simulation. Further, the calibrated computer model can be used to simulate past indoor climate and investigate the process of the deterioration of the room and the collections mainly due to the fluctuation of indoor temperature and relative humidity. At the end

Policy options to respond to rapid climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Swart, R.J.; Marinova, N.A.; Bakker, S.; Tilburg, van X.

2009-01-01

Ongoing research on climate change indicates that we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme climatic changes, beyond current IPCC scenarios. The thinking about policy responses to address these risks is still in its infancy. This study explores the possibilities for responding to extreme

Copenhagen Climate Change Conference: The Current Situation and the Future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broughton, Emma

2010-01-01

The Copenhagen climate change conference has failed to meet expectations but has also led to a shift in the structure of multilateral negotiations on climate change. States have reclaimed negotiations, while the UN-centred structure has been weakened. Relations between developed and emerging countries have shifted, with the latter influence growing. There has also been an increased participation of civil-society actors (NGOs) in the debate. A new negotiation structure is emerging but it faces the difficult challenge of avoiding fragmentation

Beyond dichotomies: Gender and intersecting inequalities in climate change studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Djoudi, Houria; Locatelli, Bruno; Vaast, Chloe; Asher, Kiran; Brockhaus, Maria; Basnett Sijapati, Bimbika

2016-12-01

Climate change and related adaptation strategies have gender-differentiated impacts. This paper reviews how gender is framed in 41 papers on climate change adaptation through an intersectionality lens. The main findings show that while intersectional analysis has demonstrated many advantages for a comprehensive study of gender, it has not yet entered the field of climate change and gender. In climate change studies, gender is mostly handled in a men-versus-women dichotomy and little or no attention has been paid to power and social and political relations. These gaps which are echoed in other domains of development and gender research depict a 'feminization of vulnerability' and reinforce a 'victimization' discourse within climate change studies. We argue that a critical intersectional assessment would contribute to unveil agency and emancipatory pathways in the adaptation process by providing a better understanding of how the differential impacts of climate change shape, and are shaped by, the complex power dynamics of existing social and political relations.

Climate change and forest diseases

Science.gov (United States)

R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods

2011-01-01

As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...

Mindfulness and Climate Change Action: A Feasibility Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maggie Grabow

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Pro-environmental behaviors and the cultural shifts that can accompany these may offer solutions to the consequences of a changing climate. Mindfulness has been proposed as a strategy to initiate these types of behaviors. In 2017, we pilot-tested Mindful Climate Action (MCA, an eight-week adult education program that delivers energy use, climate change, and sustainability content in combination with training in mindfulness meditation, among 16 individuals living in Madison, WI. We collected participant data at baseline and at different times across the study period regarding household energy use, transportation, diet, and health and happiness. This pilot study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of the various MCA study practices including measurement tools, outcome assessment, curriculum and related educational materials, and especially the mindfulness-based climate action trainings. MCA was well-received by participants as evidenced by high adherence rate, high measures of participant satisfaction, and high participant response rate for surveys. In addition, we successfully demonstrated feasibility of the MCA program, and have estimated participant’s individual carbon footprints related to diet, transportation, and household energy.

Is your dam vulnerable to climate change? Using the PIEVC engineering protocol

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourgeois, Gilles; Dickson, Stewart; Ness, Ryan; Lapp, David

2010-01-01

The potential impacts of climate change on public infrastructure are currently studied to advance planning and prioritization of adaption strategies. This paper investigated the potential vulnerability of the Claireville and G. Ross Lord dams and reservoirs by considering the projected character, its magnitude and its rate of change in future local climatic conditions, the sensitivity of infrastructure to the changes, and the built-in capacity of the infrastructure to absorb any net negative consequence from the predicted changes in climatic conditions. This study used the public infrastructure engineering vulnerability (PIEV) engineering protocol to study the vulnerabilities of both facilities to current climate, as well as future climate change at the 2050 time horizon. Recommendations were provided for actions to be taken to address the potential vulnerabilities that were identified. The project determined that the two dams have the capacity to withstand the existing and projected future climate.

Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip;

Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R.

2016-01-01

Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species. PMID:27732622

Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

Science.gov (United States)

Estrada-Contreras, Israel; Equihua, Miguel; Laborde, Javier; Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R

2016-01-01

Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Israel Estrada-Contreras

Full Text Available Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13. The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14. Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

Social and economic impacts of climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Carleton, Tamma A; Hsiang, Solomon M

2016-09-09

For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Climate science reconsidered

OpenAIRE

Rapley, C.; De Meyer, K.

2014-01-01

There is a gap between the current role of the climate science community and the needs of society. Closing this gap represents a necessary but insufficient step towards improved public discourse and more constructive policy formulation on climate change.

Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

Science.gov (United States)

Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

2015-09-01

This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Markovic, Danijela; Carrizo, Savrina F; Kärcher, Oskar; Walz, Ariane; David, Jonathan N W

2017-09-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Human-induced climate change: an interdisciplinary assessment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Schlesinger, M; Kheshgi, H; Smith, J; de la Chesnaye, F.C; Reilly, J. M; Wilson, T; Kolstad, C

2007-01-01

... of climate sensitivity and change. The next part of the book surveys estimates of the impacts of climate change for different sectors and regions, describes recent studies for individual sectors, and examines how this research might be used in the policy process. The third part examines current topics related to mitigation of greenhouse gase...

Organizational Climate, Services, and Outcomes in Child Welfare Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Glisson, Charles; Green, Philip

2011-01-01

Objective: This study examines the association of organizational climate, casework services, and youth outcomes in child welfare systems. Building on preliminary findings linking organizational climate to youth outcomes over a 3-year follow-up period, the current study extends the follow-up period to 7 years and tests main, moderating and…

Endemism hotspots are linked to stable climatic refugia.

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Susan; Noss, Reed

2017-01-01

Centres of endemism have received much attention from evolutionists, biogeographers, ecologists and conservationists. Climatic stability is often cited as a major reason for the occurrences of these geographic concentrations of species which are not found anywhere else. The proposed linkage between endemism and climatic stability raises unanswered questions about the persistence of biodiversity during the present era of rapidly changing climate. The current status of evidence linking geographic centres of endemism to climatic stability over evolutionary time was examined. The following questions were asked. Do macroecological analyses support such an endemism-stability linkage? Do comparative studies find that endemic species display traits reflecting evolution in stable climates? Will centres of endemism in microrefugia or macrorefugia remain relatively stable and capable of supporting high biological diversity into the future? What are the implications of the endemism-stability linkage for conservation? Recent work using the concept of climate change velocity supports the classic idea that centres of endemism occur where past climatic fluctuations have been mild and where mountainous topography or favourable ocean currents contribute to creating refugia. Our knowledge of trait differences between narrow endemics and more widely distributed species remains highly incomplete. Current knowledge suggests that centres of endemism will remain relatively climatically buffered in the future, with the important caveat that absolute levels of climatic change and species losses in these regions may still be large. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Ecological impacts of atmospheric pollution and interactions with climate change in terrestrial ecosystems of the Mediterranean Basin: Current research and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ochoa-Hueso, Raúl; Munzi, Silvana; Alonso, Rocío; Arróniz-Crespo, María; Avila, Anna; Bermejo, Victoria; Bobbink, Roland; Branquinho, Cristina; Concostrina-Zubiri, Laura; Cruz, Cristina; Cruz de Carvalho, Ricardo; De Marco, Alessandra; Dias, Teresa; Elustondo, David; Elvira, Susana; Estébanez, Belén; Fusaro, Lina; Gerosa, Giacomo; Izquieta-Rojano, Sheila; Lo Cascio, Mauro; Marzuoli, Riccardo; Matos, Paula; Mereu, Simone; Merino, José; Morillas, Lourdes; Nunes, Alice; Paoletti, Elena; Paoli, Luca; Pinho, Pedro; Rogers, Isabel B; Santos, Arthur; Sicard, Pierre; Stevens, Carly J; Theobald, Mark R

2017-08-01

Mediterranean Basin ecosystems, their unique biodiversity, and the key services they provide are currently at risk due to air pollution and climate change, yet only a limited number of isolated and geographically-restricted studies have addressed this topic, often with contrasting results. Particularities of air pollution in this region include high O 3 levels due to high air temperatures and solar radiation, the stability of air masses, and dominance of dry over wet nitrogen deposition. Moreover, the unique abiotic and biotic factors (e.g., climate, vegetation type, relevance of Saharan dust inputs) modulating the response of Mediterranean ecosystems at various spatiotemporal scales make it difficult to understand, and thus predict, the consequences of human activities that cause air pollution in the Mediterranean Basin. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement coordinated research and experimental platforms along with wider environmental monitoring networks in the region. In particular, a robust deposition monitoring network in conjunction with modelling estimates is crucial, possibly including a set of common biomonitors (ideally cryptogams, an important component of the Mediterranean vegetation), to help refine pollutant deposition maps. Additionally, increased attention must be paid to functional diversity measures in future air pollution and climate change studies to establish the necessary link between biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services in Mediterranean ecosystems. Through a coordinated effort, the Mediterranean scientific community can fill the above-mentioned gaps and reach a greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying the combined effects of air pollution and climate change in the Mediterranean Basin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tshepo S. Masipa

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This article aims to examine the impact of climate change on food security in South Africa. For this purpose, the article adopted a desktop study approach. Previous studies, reports, surveys and policies on climate change and food (insecurity. From this paper’s analysis, climate change presents a high risk to food security in sub-Saharan countries from crop production to food distribution and consumption. In light of this, it is found that climate change, particularly global warming, affects food security through food availability, accessibility, utilisation and affordability. To mitigate these risks, there is a need for an integrated policy approach to protect the arable land against global warming. The argument advanced in this article is that South Africa’s ability to adapt and protect its food items depends on the understanding of risks and the vulnerability of various food items to climate change. However, this poses a challenge in developing countries, including South Africa, because such countries have weak institutions and limited access to technology. Another concern is a wide gap between the cost of adapting and the necessary financial support from the government. There is also a need to invest in technologies that will resist risks on food systems.

Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

Climatic Change. Human Influence?

OpenAIRE

Gonçalves, Dionísio; Leite, Solange; Ribeiro, A.C.; Figueiredo, Tomás de

2016-01-01

We begin by presenting the functioning of the Climate System and the variety of climates that occurs on the surface of the globe. We analyze climate change based on the sun's orbital parameters and other causes, focusing on the current interglacial period and the influence it had on the development of human societies. The following text looks on developing of the climate of the last 1000 years, with considerations about the warm medieval climate, the little ice age, the recovery...

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

Science.gov (United States)

Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T.; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.

2017-01-01

How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathewson, Paul D; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A; Briscoe, Natalie J; Kearney, Michael; Yahn, Jeremiah M; Porter, Warren P

2017-03-01

How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

Current and projected water demand and water availability estimates under climate change scenarios in the Weyib River basin in Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

2017-07-01

This study intended to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of current and projected water demand and water availability under climate change scenarios in Weyib River basin, Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia. Future downscaled climate variables from three Earth System Models under the three RCP emission scenarios were inputted into ArcSWAT hydrological model to simulate different components of water resources of a basin whereas current and projected human and livestock population of the basin is considered to estimate the total annual water demand for various purposes. Results revealed that the current total annual water demand of the basin is found to be about 289 Mm3, and this has to increase by 83.47% after 15 years, 200.67% after 45 years, and 328.78% after 75 years by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period water demand mainly due to very rapid increasing population (40.81, 130.80, and 229.12% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively) and climatic variability. The future average annual total water availability in the basin is observed to be increased by ranging from 15.04 to 21.61, 20.08 to 23.34, and 16.21 to 39.53% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time slice, respectively, from base period available water resources (2333.39 Mm3). The current water availability per capita per year of the basin is about 3112.23 m3 and tends to decline ranging from 11.78 to 17.49, 46.02 to 47.45, and 57.18 to 64.34% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period per capita per year water availability. This indicated that there might be possibility to fall the basin under water stress condition in the long term.

[Air contamination in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires: the current risk or future climate change, a false option].

Science.gov (United States)

Abrutzky, Rosana; Dawidowski, Laura; Murgida, Ana; Natenzon, Claudia Eleonor

2014-09-01

Based on the theoretical framework of environmental risk, this article discusses the management of air quality in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires in relation to current and potential impacts of toxic gases and global climate change on the health of the population. Information on historical and current management of the air was linked to the results of the South American Emissions, Megacities and Climate research project to assess danger, exposure, vulnerability and uncertainty as the dimensions of risk. By contextualizing public policies developed in recent decades on this subject, it was possible to identify emerging configurations of risk and uncertainties as accelerators of social vulnerability. On the one hand, the fact that there is a positive correlation between mortality, changes in temperature and air pollution was confirmed. On the other hand, it became clear that there is a disconnect between air quality management and health care management, while limitations were found in the proposed mitigation measures relating to emissions of greenhouse gases produced by fuel, revealing uncertainties regarding their efficacy.

Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

2016-01-01

Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

Complementarity among climate related energy sources: Sensitivity study to climate characteristics across Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Raynaud, Damien; Borga, Marco; Vautard, Robert

2015-04-01

Climate related energy sources like solar-power, wind-power and hydro-power are important contributors to the transitions to a low-carbon economy. Past studies, mainly based on solar and wind powers, showed that the power from such energy sources fluctuates in time and space following their driving climatic variables. However, when combining different energy sources together, their intermittent feature is smoothed, resulting to lower time variability of the produced power and to lower storage capacity required for balancing. In this study, we consider solar, wind and hydro energy sources in a 100% renewable Europe using a set of 12 regions following two climate transects, the first one going from the Northern regions (Norway, Finland) to the Southern ones (Greece, Andalucía, Tunisia) and the second one going from the oceanic climate (West of France, Galicia) to the continental one (Romania, Belorussia). For each of those regions, we combine wind and solar irradiance data from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Vautard et al., 2014), temperature data from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) and runoff from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC, 1999) for estimating solar-power, wind-power, run-of-the-river hydro-power and the electricity demand over a time period of 30 years. The use of this set of 12 regions across Europe allows integrating knowledge about time and space variability for each different energy sources. We then assess the optimal share of each energy sources, aiming to decrease the time variability of the regional energy balance at different time scales as well as the energy storage required for balancing within each region. We also evaluate how energy transport among regions contributes for smoothing out both the energy balance and the storage requirement. The strengths of this study are i) to handle with run-of-the-river hydro power in addition to wind and solar energy sources and ii) to carry out this analysis

ESCAPE. Energy Security and ClimAte Policy Evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kessels, J.R.; Bakker, S.J.A.

2005-05-01

Climate change and energy supply security policy are currently not integrated in most countries, despite possible synergies. The ESCAPE approach suggests that linking climate change policy with security of energy supply could improve climate change policy at both a national and international level. The report explores the interaction between policies of energy security and climate change and the options of inclusion of energy security issues into national and international post-2012 climate negotiations. It emphasises the importance of the US in this regard and takes a close look at US energy policy documents. It appears that current US energy policy is not directed towards reducing its reliance on imported fossil fuel, even though the government has a strong preference for this. This study shows that measures to reduce import dependency are mostly synergetic with climate policy and gives some options that can be implemented. On an international level, linkages of energy security into post-2012 climate policy may be possible in sectoral bottom-up approaches or technology frameworks. As well, inclusion of a security of supply criterion in international emission trading instruments may provide potential benefits

Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Amin

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Pakistan is currently facing physical and economic water scarcity issues that are further complicated by the rapid increase in its population and by climate change. Many studies have focused on the physical water scarcity using hydrological modeling and the measurement of the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB. However, few studies have concentrated on the importance of the economic water scarcity, that is, the water management issue under the looming impacts of climate change and the population explosion of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to develop a management strategy which helps to achieve water security and sustainability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB with the help of different socio-economic and climate change scenarios using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning modeling. The streamflow data of five sub-basins (Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, and Astore and the entire Upper Indus Basin (UIB were calibrated (2006–2010 and validated (2011–2014 in the WEAP model. The coefficient of determination and Nash Sutcliffe values for the calibration period ranged from 0.81–0.96. The coefficient of determination and the Nash Sutcliffe values for the validation period ranged from 0.85–0.94. After the development of the WEAP model, the analysis of the unmet water demand and percent coverage of the water demand for the period of 2006–2050 was computed. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth, urbanization, and living standards and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results indicated that the future unmet water demand is likely to reach 134 million cubic meters (mcm by the year 2050 and that the external driving factors are putting more pressure on the supply service. This study further explores the importance of proposed dams (likely to be built until 2025 by WAPDA (Water and Power Development

Social Climate Science: A New Vista for Psychological Science.

Science.gov (United States)

Pearson, Adam R; Schuldt, Jonathon P; Romero-Canyas, Rainer

2016-09-01

The recent Paris Agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions, adopted by 195 nations at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, signaled unprecedented commitment by world leaders to address the human social aspects of climate change. Indeed, climate change increasingly is recognized by scientists and policymakers as a social issue requiring social solutions. However, whereas psychological research on intrapersonal and some group-level processes (e.g., political polarization of climate beliefs) has flourished, research into other social processes-such as an understanding of how nonpartisan social identities, cultural ideologies, and group hierarchies shape public engagement on climate change-has received substantially less attention. In this article, we take stock of current psychological approaches to the study of climate change to explore what is "social" about climate change from the perspective of psychology. Drawing from current interdisciplinary perspectives and emerging empirical findings within psychology, we identify four distinct features of climate change and three sets of psychological processes evoked by these features that are fundamentally social and shape both individual and group responses to climate change. Finally, we consider how a more nuanced understanding of the social underpinnings of climate change can stimulate new questions and advance theory within psychology. © The Author(s) 2016.

Climate Project Screening Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

2011-01-01

Climate change poses a challenge for resource managers as they review current management practices. Adaptation is a critical means of addressing climate change in the near future because, due to inherent time lags in climate impacts, the effects of increased atmospheric greenhouse gases will be felt for decades even if effective mitigation begins now. To address the...

Climate shocks: natural and anthropogenic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kondrat'ev, K.I.

1988-01-01

The impact of multiple nuclear explosions in the earth atmosphere on global climate is explored, summarizing the results of recent theoretical modeling studies. Two natural analogs, the greenhouse effect and a major volcanic explosion, are analyzed; and particular attention is then given to data on the climatic effects of previous atmospheric tests of nuclear weapons, numerical models of these effects, and the effect of the Tunguska meteor fall of 1908 on the ozone layer and climate. It is concluded that, although the current models contain many uncertainties, multiple nuclear explosions would doubtless produce catastrophic changes, much more serious than those which would result from a doubling of the present CO 2 content. Strong temporal and spatial variabilities of climate would exclude normal life or industrial activity on the planet. 110 references

An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Horton, Radley M.

Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even

ClimaDat: A long-term network to study at different scales climatic processes and interactions between climatic compartments

Science.gov (United States)

Morgui, Josep Anton; Agueda, Alba; Batet, Oscar; Curcoll, Roger; Ealo, Marina; Grossi, Claudia; Occhipinti, Paola; Sánchez-García, Laura; Arias, Rosa; Rodó, Xavi

2013-04-01

ClimaDat (www.climadat.es) is a pioneer project of the Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) in collaboration with and funded by "la Caixa" Foundation. This project aims at studying the interactions between climate and ecosystems at different spatial and temporal scales. The ClimaDat project consists of a network of eight long-term observatory stations distributed over Spain, installed at natural and remote areas, and covering different climatic domains (e.g. Mediterranean, Atlantic, subtropics) and natural systems (e.g. delta, karsts, high mountain areas). Data obtained in the ClimaDat network will help us to understand how ecosystems are influenced by and eventually might feedback different processes in the climate system. The point of focus of these studies will be taken into account regional-and-local conditions to understand climatic global scale eventsThe data gathered will be used to study the behavior of the global element cycles and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The network is expected to offer near real-time (NRT) data free for the scientific community. Instrumentation installed at these stations mainly consists of: CO2, CH4, H2O, CO, N2O, SF6 and 222Rn analyzers, isotopic CO2, CH4 and H2O analyzers, meteorological sensors, eddy covariance equipment, four-component radiometers, soil moisture and temperature sensors, and sap flow meters. Each station may have a more focused subset of all this equipment, depending on the specific characteristics of the site. Instrumentation selected for this network has been chosen to comply with standards established in international research infrastructure projects, such as ICOS (http://www.icos-infrastructure.eu/home) or InGOS (http://www.ingos-infrastructure.eu/). Preliminary data time-series of greenhouse gases concentrations and meteorological variables are presented in this study for three currently operational ClimaDat stations: the Natural Park of the Ebre Delta (lat 40.75° N - long 0.79° E), the

Designing the Climate Observing System of the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Ramaswamy, V.; Abbott, Mark; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Atlas, Robert; Brasseur, Guy; Bruhwiler, Lori; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Butler, James H.; Clack, Christopher T. M.; Cooke, Roger; Cucurull, Lidia; Davis, Sean M.; English, Jason M.; Fahey, David W.; Fine, Steven S.; Lazo, Jeffrey K.; Liang, Shunlin; Loeb, Norman G.; Rignot, Eric; Soden, Brian; Stanitski, Diane; Stephens, Graeme; Tapley, Byron D.; Thompson, Anne M.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Wuebbles, Donald

2018-01-01

Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and freshwater availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this article. First, this article proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: melting ice and global consequences; clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity; carbon feedbacks in the climate system; understanding and predicting weather and climate extremes; water for the food baskets of the world; regional sea-level change and coastal impacts; and near-term climate prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long-term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground-based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs.

Mitigation incentives with climate finance and treaty options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strand, Jon

2016-01-01

Future greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation action of current non-climate-policy (NP) countries is considered to take two alternative forms: 1) “climate finance” payments received in return for future reductions in its GHG emissions below a defined “baseline”; and 2) join a “climate treaty” whereby the required emissions reductions are formally binding. It is assumed that baselines defining climate finance payments, and required emissions reductions under a treaty, depend positively on current emissions. It is then shown that making such future options available reduces current GHG mitigation in NP countries, leading to higher emissions in the short run. This effect is stronger when future climate finance payments are higher; the required relative emissions reductions under a treaty are greater; when commitments under a treaty are longer-lasting; and mitigation targets depend more on current emissions. Such short-run increases in emissions can (sometimes, more than) fully eliminate the effect of the subsequent policy. When climate finance and treaties are both future alternatives, more generous climate finance can make it harder and more expensive to induce the country to join a climate treaty. - Highlights: • A good future climate finance arrangement can increase GHG emissions today. • The same can be the case with a future and restrictive climate treaty. • These can be problems when costs under such solutions are reduced by higher emissions today. • Better climate finance also tends to make joining a climate treaty less attractive.

Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Forchhammer, Mads Cedergreen; Post, Eric

2004-01-01

Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns......Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns...

Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fatichi, S.; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

2014-01-01

Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights: �

Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fatichi, S., E-mail: simone.fatichi@ifu.baug.ethz.ch; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

2014-09-15

Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights: �

Moral intensity and climate-friendly food choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Mäkiniemi, Jaana-Piia; Vainio, Annukka

2013-07-01

By changing individual food consumption patterns, it might be possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with climate change. The aim of the current study was to examine how perceptions of the moral intensity of climate change are related to climate friendly-food choices. The participants were 350 Finnish university students in the social and behavioral sciences who completed a questionnaire during class. The results indicated that moral perceptions mainly affected the moral evaluation and intentions to make climate-friendly food choices. We suggest that the results can be used to promote climate-friendly food choices, for example, by increasing the recognition of climate change as a moral imperative and by combining environmental motives with other relevant food choice motives. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overview of the Kenya country studies on Climate Change Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gacuhi, R.A.

1998-01-01

The general objective of the Kenya country study on climate change was to make a contribution to the global efforts of finding a solution to climatic change problem.The specific objectives were, Contribute to the development of national capacity to handle climatic changes issues, Assess the country's contribution to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG's), Evaluate the vulnerability of various sensitive sectors to impacts of climate change, Generate information useful to the development of an overall national policy on climate change, Lay a foundation for development of national action plans and national communication required under the UNFCCC

Seasonal forecasts: communicating current climate variability in southern Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Landman, WA

2011-11-01

Full Text Available seasonal time scale. Seasonal climate forecasts are defined as probabilistic predictions of how much rain is expected during the season and how warm or cool it will be, based primarily on the principle that the ocean (sea-surface temperatures) influences...

Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

2014-09-15

Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013

Climate change and climate variability impacts on rainfed agricultural activities and possible adaptation measures. A Mexican case study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Conde, C.; Ferrer, R. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico Circuito Exterior, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)]. E-mail: e-mail: conde@servidor.unam.mx; Orozco, S. [Escuela de Agrobiologia, Universidad Autonoma de Tlaxcala, Tlaxcala (Mexico)

2006-07-15

Climate extreme events (such as those associated to strong El Nino events) highly affect Mexican agriculture, since more than sixty percent of it is rainfed. The basic crop cultivated is maize, which is still the main source of nutrients for a large portion of the rural population in the country. Within the project Capacity Building for Stage II Adaptation to Climate Change in Central America, Mexico and Cuba, we analyze the strategies developed by maize producers in the central region of the country to cope with climatic adverse events. Impact on rainfed maize due to climate variability and climate change conditions are studied using a crop simulation model. Several adaptation measures can be evaluated using that model. However, the effect of other stressors must be considered in an assessment of the adaptive capacity of small farmers to climate variability and change. Key stakeholders' involvement in the region helped us to decide which of the adaptive measures could be viable under the current conditions and under future climatic conditions. The construction of greenhouses, the use of compost, and dripping irrigation, were some of the techniques selected with the participation of the stakeholders. The enthusiastic responses to these measures allow us to consider that they can prevail in the future, under climate change conditions. However, the adaptation to climate change includes -besides the stated techniques- the generation of the capacities to cope with climatic adverse events, that is, to enhance the adaptive capacities to climate change among the key stakeholders. [Spanish] Los eventos climaticos extremos (como los asociados con eventos fuertes de El Nino) afectan de manera importante a la agricultura mexicana, ya que mas del sesenta por ciento de ella es de temporal, esto es, depende fundamentalmente de una buena temporada de lluvias para producir. El cultivo que se siembra es basicamente maiz, que todavia es la principal fuente de nutrientes para

Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

2013-01-01

Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

Policy Case Study – Food Labelling: Climate for Sustainable Growth

OpenAIRE

Cosbey, Aaron; Marcu, Andrei; Belis, David; Stoefs, Wijnand; Tuokko, Katja

2015-01-01

This study, which is part of the project entitled “Climate for Sustainable Growth“, focuses on one particular policy tool used in the agricultural sector, food labelling. It reviews food carbon labelling when put in place with clear objectives to address climate change. This study examines whether food carbon labels, as climate mitigation tools, are put in place in a sustainable way, by identifying their impacts on the three dimensions of sustainable development: 1) economic 2) social and ...

Why classroom climate matters for children high in anxious solitude: A study of differential susceptibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Kathleen; Coplan, Robert J

2018-03-01

The goal of the current study was to examine the complex links among anxious solitude, classroom climate, engagement, achievement, and gender. In particular, drawing upon the differential susceptibility hypothesis (Belsky, 1997), we investigated if children high in anxious solitude were particularly sensitive and responsive to the classroom environment. Participants were N = 712 children in Grade 3, drawn from the National Institute of Child and Human Development (NICHD) Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development data set. Classroom climate and engagement were assessed using the Classroom Observation Scale (NICHD, 1998). Teachers completed the Teacher Report Form (Achenbach, 1991) as a measure of anxious solitude and the Academic Rating Scale (NICHD, 2010) as a measure of achievement. Hypothesized associations among variables were tested by way of a moderated-mediation model. Among the results, engagement was found to mediate the relation between classroom climate and achievement. In addition, anxious solitude and gender were found to moderate the relation between classroom climate and engagement. Support for the differential susceptibility hypothesis was found, suggesting that children high in anxious solitude may be more reactive (both positively and negatively) to elements of the classroom environment. In addition, gender differences were observed, indicating that boys may be more responsive to the classroom environment as compared with girls. Implications for future research and educational policies are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

The influence of causal knowledge on the willingness to change attitude towards climate change: results from an empirical study

Science.gov (United States)

Tasquier, Giulia; Pongiglione, Francesca

2017-09-01

Climate change is one of the significant global challenges currently facing humanity. Even though its seriousness seems to be common knowledge among the public, the reaction of individuals to it has been slow and uncertain. Many studies assert that simply knowing about climate change is not enough to generate people's behavioural response. They claim, indeed, that in some cases scientific literacy can even obstruct behavioural response instead. However, recent surveys show a rather poor understanding of climate dynamics and argue that lack of knowledge about causal relationships within climate dynamics can hinder behavioural response, since the individual is not able to understand his/her role as causal agent and therefore doesn't know how to take proper action. This study starts from the hypothesis that scientific knowledge focused on clarifying climate dynamics can make people understand not only dynamics themselves, but also their interactive relationship with the environment. Teaching materials on climate change based on such considerations were designed and implemented in a course for secondary-school students with the aim of investigating whether this kind of knowledge had an influence on students' willingness to adopt pro-environmental behaviours. Questionnaires were delivered for testing the effect of the teaching experience on knowledge and behaviour.

Climate change and ecological public health.

Science.gov (United States)

Goodman, Benny

2015-02-17

Climate change has been identified as a serious threat to human health, associated with the sustainability of current practices and lifestyles. Nurses should expand their health promotion role to address current and emerging threats to health from climate change and to address ecological public health. This article briefly outlines climate change and the concept of ecological public health, and discusses a 2012 review of the role of the nurse in health promotion.

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

Science.gov (United States)

Fortini, Lucas B.; Dye, Kaipo

2017-01-01

For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also

The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Neelin, J. D.

2017-12-01

Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.

Authoritative School Climate, Number of Parents at Home, and Academic Achievement

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Francis L.; Eklund, Katie; Cornell, Dewey G.

2017-01-01

School climate is widely recognized as an important factor in promoting student academic achievement. The current study investigated the hypothesis that a demanding and supportive school climate, based on authoritative school climate theory, would serve as a protective factor for students living with 1 or no parents at home. Using a statewide…

The Canada country study: climate impacts and adaptation, Ontario summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavender, B.; Smith, J. [Smith and Lavender Envrironmental Consultants (Canada); Bullock, T. [Environment Canada, Hull, PQ (Canada). Atmospheric Environment Service

1997-12-31

Another summary volume in the series of national assessments by experts on climate in government, industry and academic institutions, giving their views on how climate change will affect Canadians and their social, biological and economic environment over the next century. This summary is devoted to a discussion of the impacts and implications of climate change on Ontario. Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase over the next century which will result in an increase in the average global temperature. Some of the changes noted over the last century include a rise in average temperature, especially in winter and it is highly likely that this trend will continue. A shortening of the snow season and lengthening of the growing season are likely to result. Increase in the frequency and intensity of summer heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns, soil moisture and the frequency of severe winter storms, thunderstorms, hails, tornadoes and hurricanes also have been predicted. Preparation for a changing climate is essential to escaping the worst consequences of the predicted changes. One way to prepare might be by improving the adaptation to current conditions. In practice, this might be done by improving the management of our water resources, providing better protection for public health and the environment, working towards sustainability in energy supply and demand, protecting forests by planned harvesting and by planting disease-resistant species, protecting agriculture by selecting crops that better fit climate conditions and by improving irrigation practices, and lessening air pollution damage by reducing atmospheric emission of substances that cause pollution problems. 3 figs.

Trees and Climate Change

OpenAIRE

Dettenmaier, Megan; Kuhns, Michael; Unger, Bethany; McAvoy, Darren

2017-01-01

This fact sheet describes the complex relationship between forests and climate change based on current research. It explains ways that trees can mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. It details the impacts that forests are having on the changing climate and discuss specific ways that trees can be used to reduce or counter carbon emissions directly and indirectly.

Sustainability of small reservoirs and large scale water availability under current conditions and climate change

OpenAIRE

Krol, Martinus S.; de Vries, Marjella J.; van Oel, P.R.; Carlos de Araújo, José

2011-01-01

Semi-arid river basins often rely on reservoirs for water supply. Small reservoirs may impact on large-scale water availability both by enhancing availability in a distributed sense and by subtracting water for large downstream user communities, e.g. served by large reservoirs. Both of these impacts of small reservoirs are subject to climate change. Using a case-study on North-East Brazil, this paper shows that climate change impacts on water availability may be severe, and impacts on distrib...

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Makowski, David; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Bassu, Simona; Durand, Jean-Louis; Martre, Pierre; Adam, Myriam; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Baron, Chritian;

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

Tectonic, volcanic, and climatic geomorphology study of the Sierras Pampeanas Andes, northwestern Argentina

Science.gov (United States)

Bloom, A. L.; Strecker, M. R.; Fielding, E. J.

1984-01-01

A proposed analysis of Shuttle Imaging Radar-B (SIR-B) data extends current research in the Sierras Pampeanas and the Puna of northwestern Argentina to the determination - by the digital analysis of mountain-front sinuousity - of the relative age and amount of fault movement along mountain fronts of the late-Cenozoic Sierras Pampeanas basement blocks; the determination of the age and history of the boundary across the Andes at about 27 S latitude between continuing volcanism to the north and inactive volcanism to the south; and the determination of the age and extent of Pleistocene glaciation in the High Sierras, as well as the comparative importance of climatic change and tectonic movements in shaping the landscape. The integration of these studies into other ongoing geology projects contributes to the understanding of landform development in this active tectonic environment and helps distinguish between climatic and tectonic effects on landforms.

Studying the human dimensions of global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berk, R.A.

1991-01-01

With recent scientific interest in climate change has come a need to address substantive issues over very long periods of time and over virtually the entire globe. There is also a growing recognition not only of the links between physical and biological systems but also of the key roles played by human activities and institutions in interaction with the physical and biological world. Hence, the study of climate change presents a host of important questions to social scientists, for which they are not fully prepared. The problems inherent in studying the human dimensions of global climate change do not occur in a scientific vacuum. Rather, they are in part created by, and in part reflect, important gaps in scientific understanding of the physical and biological dimensions. To set the stage, therefore, the general nature of these gaps needs to be briefly reviewed

Enhancing STEM coursework at MSIs through the AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project

Science.gov (United States)

Abshire, W. E.; Mills, E. W.; Slough, S. W.; Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Nugnes, K. A.

2017-12-01

The AMS Education Program celebrates a successful completion to its AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project. The project was funded for 6 years (2011-2017) through the National Science Foundation (NSF). It introduced and enhanced geoscience and/or sustainability-focused course components at minority-serving institutions (MSIs) across the U.S., many of which are signatories to the President's Climate Leadership Commitments, administered by Second Nature, and/or members of the Louis Stokes Alliances for Minority Participation. The Project introduced AMS Climate Studies curriculum to approximately 130 faculty representing 113 MSIs. Each year a cohort of, on average, 25 faculty attended a course implementation workshop where they were immersed in the course materials, received presentations from high-level speakers, and trained as change agents for their local institutions. This workshop was held in the Washington, DC area in collaboration with Second Nature, NOAA, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Howard University, and other local climate educational and research institutions. Following, faculty introduced and enhanced geoscience curricula on their local campuses with AMS Climate Studies course materials, thereby bringing change from within. Faculty were then invited to the following AMS Annual Meeting to report on their AMS Climate Studies course implementation progress, reconnect with their colleagues, and learn new science presented at the meeting. A longitudinal survey was administered to all Climate Diversity Project faculty participants who attended the course implementation workshops. The survey goals were to assess the effectiveness of the Project in helping faculty implement/enhance their institutional climate science offering, share best practices in offering AMS Climate Studies, and analyze the usefulness of course materials. Results will be presented during this presentation. The AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project builds on highly successful, NSF

Scientific data and climate scenarios. Study report nr 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alex, Bastien; Baillat, Alice; Francois Gemenne; Jean Jouzel

2017-05-01

The objective of this report is to present climate evolutions and their impacts according to two warming scenarios: a 2 degree increase of the average surface temperature by 2100 (i.e. the most optimistic IPCC scenario), and a 5 degree increase by 2100 (the most pessimistic scenario). As far as possible, physical, social and economic, and health impacts are assessed by 2030 and 2050. The authors notice that the differences between both scenarios are hardly discernible by 2030, but more obviously by 2050. After a brief recall on IPCC scenarios, a first part addresses the evolutions of the world climate by considering the atmosphere (temperature increase, modification of precipitation regimes), seas and oceans (temperature, currents and thermal circulation, ocean acidification, seal level rise), extreme climate events (observations and trends, main impacts on populations and infrastructures), and the cryo-sphere (observations and impacts). The second part discusses regional predictions in terms of trends and impacts for metropolitan France and its overseas territories, for Africa, and for the Asia-Pacific region. The last part briefly discusses the possibly necessary evolution of the typology chosen to determine sources of vulnerability and the level of exposure to different risks. Many appendices propose more detailed presentations on specific issues and examples. A summarised version of the report is also provided

Building a satellite climate diagnostics data base for real-time climate monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ropelewski, C.F.

1991-01-01

The paper discusses the development of a data base, the Satellite Climate Diagnostic Data Base (SCDDB), for real time operational climate monitoring utilizing current satellite data. Special attention is given to the satellite-derived quantities useful for monitoring global climate changes, the requirements of SCDDB, and the use of conventional meteorological data and model assimilated data in developing the SCDDB. Examples of prototype SCDDB products are presented. 10 refs

Monitoring Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Energy Imbalance for Climate Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Bing; Chambers, Lin H.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Minnis, Patrick

2009-01-01

Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the prediction accuracy of the Earth s future climate with an increased CO2 atmosphere. One potential to reduce the feedback uncertainties using satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy imbalance is explored. Instead of solving the initial condition problem in previous energy balance analysis, current study focuses on the boundary condition problem with further considerations on climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport, which is more applicable for the climate. Along with surface temperature measurements of the present climate, the climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance. Comparing to the feedback factor of 3.3 W/sq m/K of the neutral climate system, the estimated feedback factor for the current climate system ranges from -1.3 to -1.0 W/sq m/K with an uncertainty of +/-0.26 W/sq m/K. That is, a positive climate feedback is found because of the measured TOA net radiative heating (0.85 W/sq m) to the climate system. The uncertainty is caused by the uncertainties in the climate memory length. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70 to approx. 120 years), implying that the climate is not in an equilibrium state under the increasing CO2 forcing in the last century.

Climate change will seriously impact bird species dwelling above the treeline: A prospective study for the Italian Alps.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrarini, Alessandro; Alatalo, Juha M; Gustin, Marco

2017-07-15

High mountain systems are predicted to be especially vulnerable to the impact of climate change, with the climatically-constrained tree limit rapidly shifted upslope. In turn, the impact of upward treeline migration on mountain-dwelling bird species is expected to significantly reduce habitat suitability. We developed the first projection of the expected climate-driven rise of the whole treeline (19,256km) of the Italian Alps. The study area extends over 20,700km 2 , ranging over 550km in longitude and 320km in latitude. We then investigated how much the expected treeline rise will induce a) shrinking and shifting of the elevation range and b) loss in suitable habitat for the flagship species rock ptarmigan, an alpine bird species dwelling above the treeline and, similarly to many other alpine species, highly vulnerable to treeline rise. We also investigated the potential gain in suitable habitat for rock ptarmigan due to the climate-driven upshift in the uppermost thermal limit. At lower altitudes (1500-1600m a.s.l.), the average expected upshift in the current treeline resulted in 195, 274 and 354m over the short (2010-2039), medium (2040-2069) and long term (2070-2099) respectively. Above 2400m a.s.l., it was less than 30m even in the long term. Overall, during the three climate periods the extent of suitable habitat for rock ptarmigan above the current treeline is projected to decrease by 28.12%, 38.43% and 49.11% respectively. In contrast, the expected gain in suitable habitat due to the shift in the uppermost thermal limit will be severely restrained by the limited surface extension in the top portion of the Italian Alps. The presented approach can promote similar studies elsewhere in the globe, providing a regional perspective to the projection of climate change impact on bird species dwelling above the treeline. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Education: Preparing Future and Current Business Leaders--A Workshop Summary

Science.gov (United States)

Storksdieck, Martin

2014-01-01

Climate change poses challenges as well as opportunities for businesses and, broadly speaking for the entire economy. Businesses will be challenged to provide services or products with less harmful influence on the climate; respond to a changing policy, regulatory, and market environment; and provide new services and products to help address the…

Climate friendly dietary guidelines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trolle, Ellen; Mogensen, Lisbeth; Thorsen, Anne Vibeke

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate how the present Danish diet could be changed in a climate friendly direction that follows the recommendations of a healthy diet. The carbon footprint (CF) of an average Danish diet was calculated and compared to CF of a recommended healthy diet by 1......%, if the healthy diet was eaten instead of the average current diet. However, if the diet was climate optimized by choosing foods with a low CF within the food groups; meat, vegetables and fruit, CF of this diet may be reduced by 23 % compared to CF of the average diet....

Ecological impacts of atmospheric pollution and interactions with climate change in terrestrial ecosystems of the Mediterranean Basin: Current research and future directions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ochoa-Hueso, Raúl; Munzi, Silvana; Alonso, Rocío; Arróniz-Crespo, María; Avila, Anna; Bermejo, Victoria; Bobbink, Roland; Branquinho, Cristina; Concostrina-Zubiri, Laura; Cruz, Cristina; Cruz de Carvalho, Ricardo; De Marco, Alessandra; Dias, Teresa; Elustondo, David

2017-01-01

Mediterranean Basin ecosystems, their unique biodiversity, and the key services they provide are currently at risk due to air pollution and climate change, yet only a limited number of isolated and geographically-restricted studies have addressed this topic, often with contrasting results. Particularities of air pollution in this region include high O 3 levels due to high air temperatures and solar radiation, the stability of air masses, and dominance of dry over wet nitrogen deposition. Moreover, the unique abiotic and biotic factors (e.g., climate, vegetation type, relevance of Saharan dust inputs) modulating the response of Mediterranean ecosystems at various spatiotemporal scales make it difficult to understand, and thus predict, the consequences of human activities that cause air pollution in the Mediterranean Basin. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement coordinated research and experimental platforms along with wider environmental monitoring networks in the region. In particular, a robust deposition monitoring network in conjunction with modelling estimates is crucial, possibly including a set of common biomonitors (ideally cryptogams, an important component of the Mediterranean vegetation), to help refine pollutant deposition maps. Additionally, increased attention must be paid to functional diversity measures in future air pollution and climate change studies to establish the necessary link between biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services in Mediterranean ecosystems. Through a coordinated effort, the Mediterranean scientific community can fill the above-mentioned gaps and reach a greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying the combined effects of air pollution and climate change in the Mediterranean Basin. - Highlights: • Mediterranean Basin ecosystems are at risk due to air pollution and climate change. • A more robust monitoring network in conjunction with modelling estimates is crucial. • Monitoring networks should

Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

The present paper investigates possible impacts of the climate change on building risks caused by typhoons. The inputs to this investigation are: (1) outcomes from the numerical simulations with a Global Climate Model (GCM) developed under the framework of the KAKUSHIN program, (2) statistics...... and the future climate subject to the climate change, whereas the other inputs are utilized to develop a model for structural performance of buildings. Taking basis in these models, changes of building risks under the climate change are investigated. The result shows that the building risks slightly decrease...... on building damage in the event of Typhoon Songda, and (3) numerical simulation of the wind field induced by the typhoon Songda with the JMA Non- Hydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM). The first input is utilized to develop two sets of probabilistic typhoon models; i.e. corresponding to the current climate...

Climate risk and vulnerability: A handbook for Southern Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Davis, Claire L

2017-10-01

Full Text Available relevant to a number of studies in the region and has been widely disseminated in Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe (as the core part of customised training courses), as well as in other countries through related events. Since... to continue with climate change. Changes in SST have important implications for the upwelling strength in the Benguela Current system as well as the Agulhas Current, both of which are important drivers of climate for southern Africa. Figure 1.6: Observed...

Assessment of farm households' vulnerability to climate change in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Climate change is currently an emerging problem in Nigeria. The Niger Delta region presents some vulnerability due to activities of some oil companies. This study provides an assessment of farm households' perception of climate change and vulnerability in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The data were obtained form ...

Cross-validation of an employee safety climate model in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Bahari, Siti Fatimah; Clarke, Sharon

2013-06-01

Whilst substantial research has investigated the nature of safety climate, and its importance as a leading indicator of organisational safety, much of this research has been conducted with Western industrial samples. The current study focuses on the cross-validation of a safety climate model in the non-Western industrial context of Malaysian manufacturing. The first-order factorial validity of Cheyne et al.'s (1998) [Cheyne, A., Cox, S., Oliver, A., Tomas, J.M., 1998. Modelling safety climate in the prediction of levels of safety activity. Work and Stress, 12(3), 255-271] model was tested, using confirmatory factor analysis, in a Malaysian sample. Results showed that the model fit indices were below accepted levels, indicating that the original Cheyne et al. (1998) safety climate model was not supported. An alternative three-factor model was developed using exploratory factor analysis. Although these findings are not consistent with previously reported cross-validation studies, we argue that previous studies have focused on validation across Western samples, and that the current study demonstrates the need to take account of cultural factors in the development of safety climate models intended for use in non-Western contexts. The results have important implications for the transferability of existing safety climate models across cultures (for example, in global organisations) and highlight the need for future research to examine cross-cultural issues in relation to safety climate. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors influencing smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones: A case study of Hwedza District in Zimbabwe.

Science.gov (United States)

Zamasiya, Byron; Nyikahadzoi, Kefasi; Mukamuri, Billy Billiard

2017-08-01

This paper examines factors influencing behavioural change among smallholder farmers towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones of Africa, specifically, Hwedza District in Zimbabwe. Data for this study were collected from 400 randomly-selected smallholder farmers, using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The study used an ordered logit model to examine the factors that influence smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change. Results from the study show that the gender of the household head, access to extension services on crop and livestock production, access to climate information, membership to social groups and experiencing a drought have a positive influence on farmers' attitude towards adaptation to climate change and variability. The study concluded that although the majority of smallholder farmers perceive that the climate is changing, they continue to habour negative attitudes towards prescribed climate change adaptation techniques. This study recommends more education on climate change, as well as adaptation strategies for both agricultural extension workers and farmers. This can be complemented by disseminating timely climate information through extension officers and farmers' groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C; Ernst, Kacey

2013-01-01

Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change. We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance. Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host-species interactions. Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.

Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

Science.gov (United States)

Karunaratne, A. S.; Walker, S.; Ruane, A. C.

2015-01-01

Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop-water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980-2009) and mid-century climates (2040-2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to 31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

2007-09-01

This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

Interactive effects of air pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems in the United States: current understanding and future scenarios

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Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Mark Fenn; Steven McNulty; Fengming Yuan; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles Driscoll; Tom Meixner

2013-01-01

A review of the current status of air pollution and climate change (CC) in the United States from a perspective of their impacts on forest ecosystems is provided. Ambient ozone (O3) and nitrogen (N) deposition have important and widespread ecological impacts in U.S. forests. Effects of sulphurous (S) air pollutants and other trace pollutants have...

Selection of the Climate Parameters for a Building Envelopes and Indoor Climate Systems Design

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Oleg Samarin

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The current research considers the principles of selection of the climate information needed for the building envelope and indoor climate design and adopted in Russia and some European countries. Special reference has been made to the shortcoming of methodologies that include the notion of a typical year, and the advantages of climate data sets generated via software-based designs, using pseudo-random number generators. The results of the average temperature of the coldest five-day period with various supplies were calculated using the numerical Monte-Carlo simulations, as well as the current climate data. It has been shown that there is a fundamental overlap between the statistical distribution of temperatures of both instances and the possibility of implementation a probabilistic-statistical method principle in the development of certain climate data, relative to envelopes and thermal conditions of a building. The calculated values were combined with the analytic expression of the normal law of random distribution and the correlations needed for the main parameter selection.

A multicenter study: how do medical students perceive clinical learning climate?

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Yilmaz, Nilufer Demiral; Velipasaoglu, Serpil; Ozan, Sema; Basusta, Bilge Uzun; Midik, Ozlem; Mamakli, Sumer; Karaoglu, Nazan; Tengiz, Funda; Durak, Halil İbrahim; Sahin, Hatice

2016-01-01

The relationship between students and instructors is of crucial importance for the development of a positive learning climate. Learning climate is a multifaceted concept, and its measurement is a complicated process. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine medical students' perceptions about the clinical learning climate and to investigate differences in their perceptions in terms of various variables. Medical students studying at six medical schools in Turkey were recruited for the study. All students who completed clinical rotations, which lasted for 3 or more weeks, were included in the study (n=3,097). Data were collected using the Clinical Learning Climate Scale (CLCS). The CLCS (36 items) includes three subscales: clinical environment, emotion, and motivation. Each item is scored using a 5-point Likert scale (1: strongly disagree to 5: strongly agree). The response rate for the trainees was 69.67% (n=1,519), and for the interns it was 51.47% (n=917). The mean total CLCS score was 117.20±17.19. The rotation during which the clinical learning climate was perceived most favorably was the Physical Therapy and Rehabilitation rotation (mean score: 137.77). The most negatively perceived rotation was the General Internal Medicine rotation (mean score: 104.31). There were significant differences between mean total scores in terms of trainee/intern characteristics, internal medicine/surgical medicine rotations, and perception of success. The results of this study drew attention to certain aspects of the clinical learning climate in medical schools. Clinical teacher/instructor/supervisor, clinical training programs, students' interactions in clinical settings, self-realization, mood, students' intrinsic motivation, and institutional commitment are important components of the clinical learning climate. For this reason, the aforementioned components should be taken into consideration in studies aiming to improve clinical learning climate.

A multicenter study: how do medical students perceive clinical learning climate?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nilufer Demiral Yilmaz

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Background: The relationship between students and instructors is of crucial importance for the development of a positive learning climate. Learning climate is a multifaceted concept, and its measurement is a complicated process. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine medical students’ perceptions about the clinical learning climate and to investigate differences in their perceptions in terms of various variables. Methods: Medical students studying at six medical schools in Turkey were recruited for the study. All students who completed clinical rotations, which lasted for 3 or more weeks, were included in the study (n=3,097. Data were collected using the Clinical Learning Climate Scale (CLCS. The CLCS (36 items includes three subscales: clinical environment, emotion, and motivation. Each item is scored using a 5-point Likert scale (1: strongly disagree to 5: strongly agree. Results: The response rate for the trainees was 69.67% (n=1,519, and for the interns it was 51.47% (n=917. The mean total CLCS score was 117.20±17.19. The rotation during which the clinical learning climate was perceived most favorably was the Physical Therapy and Rehabilitation rotation (mean score: 137.77. The most negatively perceived rotation was the General Internal Medicine rotation (mean score: 104.31. There were significant differences between mean total scores in terms of trainee/intern characteristics, internal medicine/surgical medicine rotations, and perception of success. Conclusion: The results of this study drew attention to certain aspects of the clinical learning climate in medical schools. Clinical teacher/instructor/supervisor, clinical training programs, students’ interactions in clinical settings, self-realization, mood, students’ intrinsic motivation, and institutional commitment are important components of the clinical learning climate. For this reason, the aforementioned components should be taken into consideration in studies

Effects of Climatic Region on Peritonitis Risk, Microbiology, Treatment, and Outcomes: a Multicenter Registry Study

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Cho, Yeoungjee; Badve, Sunil V.; Hawley, Carmel M.; McDonald, Stephen P.; Brown, Fiona G.; Boudville, Neil; Wiggins, Kathryn J.; Bannister, Kym M.; Clayton, Philip; Johnson, David W.

2013-01-01

♦ Background: The impact of climatic variations on peritoneal dialysis (PD)-related peritonitis has not been studied in detail. The aim of the current study was to determine whether various climatic zones influenced the probability of occurrence or the clinical outcomes of peritonitis. ♦ Methods: Using ANZDATA registry data, the study in cluded all Australian patients receiving PD between 1 October 2003 and 31 December 2008. Climatic regions were defined according to the Köppen classification. ♦ Results: The overall peritonitis rate was 0.59 episodes per patient-year. Most of the patients lived in Temperate regions (65%), with others residing in Subtropical (26%), Tropical (6%), and Other climatic regions (Desert, 0.6%; Grassland, 2.3%). Compared with patients in Temperate regions, those in Tropical regions demonstrated significantly higher overall peritonitis rates and a shorter time to a first peritonitis episode [adjusted hazard ratio: 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01 to 1.31]. Culture-negative peritonitis was significantly less likely in Tropical regions [adjusted odds ratio (OR): 0.42; 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.73]; its occurrence in Subtropical and Other regions was comparable to that in Temperate regions. Fungal peritonitis was independently associated with Tropical regions (OR: 2.18; 95% CI: 1.22 to 3.90) and Other regions (OR: 3.46; 95% CI: 1.73 to 6.91), where rates of antifungal prophylaxis were also lower. Outcomes after first peritonitis episodes were comparable in all groups. ♦ Conclusions: Tropical regions were associated with a higher overall peritonitis rate (including fungal peritonitis) and a shorter time to a first peritonitis episode. Augmented peritonitis prophylactic measures such as antifungal therapy and exit-site care should be considered in PD patients residing in Tropical climates. PMID:22942270

Adapting forest to climate change in drylands: the Portuguese case-study

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Branquinho, Cristina; Príncipe, Adriana; Nunes, Alice; Kobel, Melanie; Soares, Cristina; Vizinho, André; Serrano, Helena Cristina; Pinho, Pedro

2017-04-01

The recent expansion of the semiarid climate to all the region of the south of Portugal and the growing impact of climate change demands local adaptation. The growth of the native forest represents a strategy at the ecosystem level to adapt to climate change since it increases resilience and increases also de delivery of ecosystem services such as the increment of organic matter in the soil, carbon and nitrogen, biodiversity, water infiltration, etc. Moreover, decreases susceptibility to desertification. For that reason, large areas have been reforested in the south of Portugal with the native species holm oak and cork oak but with a low rate of effectiveness. Our goal in this work is to show how the cost-benefit relation of the actions intended to expand the forest of the Portuguese semiarid can be lowered by taking into account the microclimatic conditions and high spatial resolution management. The potential of forest regeneration was modelled at the local and regional level in the semiarid area using information concerning the Potential Solar Radiation. This model gives us the rate of native forest regeneration after a disturbance with high spatial resolution. Based on this model the territory was classified in: i) easy regeneration areas; ii) areas with the need of assisted reforestation, using methods that increase water and soil conservation; iii) areas of difficult reforestation because of the costs. Additionally, a summary of the success of reforestations was made in the historical semiarid since the 60s based on the evaluation of a series of case studies, where we quantified the ecosystem services currently delivered by the reforested ecosystems. We will discuss and propose a strategy for forests to adapt to climate change scenario in dryland Portugal. Acknowledgement: Programa Adapt: financed by EEA Grants and Fundo Português de Carbono and by FCT-MEC project PTDC/AAG-GLO/0045/2014.

Terrestrial hydro-climatic change, lake shrinkage and water resource deterioration: Analysis of current to future drivers across Asia

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Jarsjo, J.; Beygi, H.; Thorslund, J.

2016-12-01

Due to overlapping effects of different anthropogenic pressures and natural variability, main drivers behind on-going changes in the water cycle have in many cases not been identified, which complicates management of water resources. For instance, in many parts of the world, and not least in semi-arid and arid parts of Asia, lowered groundwater levels and shrinkage of surface water bodies with associated salinization and water quality deterioration constitute great challenges. With the aim to identify main drivers and mechanisms behind such changes, we here combine (i) historical observations of long-term, large scale change, (ii) ensemble projections of expected future change from the climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) and (iii) output from water balance modelling. Our particular focus is on regions near shrinking lakes. For the principal Lake Urmia in Iran, results show that agricultural intensification including irrigation expansion has clearly contributed to the surprisingly rapid water quality deterioration and lake shrinkage, from 10% lake area reduction in 2002 to the current value of about 75% (leaving billion of tons of salt exposed in its basin). Nevertheless, runoff decrease due to climate change has had an even larger effect. For the Aral Sea in Central Asia, where problems accelerated much earlier (in the 1990's), land-use change and irrigation expansion can fully explain the disastrous surface water deficits and water quality problems in the extensive low-lying parts of the basin. However, projections show that climate-driven runoff decrease in the headwaters of the Aral Sea basin may become a dominant driver of continued change in the near-future. More generally, present results illustrate that mitigation measures that compensate only for land-use driven effects may not reverse current trends of decreasing water availability, due to increasingly strong impacts of climate-driven runoff decrease. This has

Use of a crop climate modeling system to evaluate climate change adaptation practices: maize yield in East Africa

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Moore, N. J.; Alagarswamy, G.; Andresen, J.; Olson, J.; Thornton, P.

2013-12-01

Sub Saharan African agriculture is dominated by small-scale farmers and is heavily depend on growing season precipitation. Recent studies indicate that anthropogenic- induced warming including the Indian Ocean sea surface significantly influences precipitation in East Africa. East Africa is a useful region to assess impacts of future climate because of its large rainfall gradient, large percentage of its area being sub-humid or semi-arid, complex climatology and topography, varied soils, and because the population is particularly vulnerable to shifts in climate. Agronomic adaptation practices most commonly being considered include include a shift to short season, drought resistant maize varieties, better management practices especially fertilizer use, and irrigation. The effectiveness of these practices with climate change had not previously been tested. We used the WorldClim data set to represent current climate and compared the current and future climate scenarios of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs) including a wetter (CCSM) and drier (HadCM3) GCM downscaled to 6 km resolution. The climate data was then used in the process-based CERES maize crop model to simulate the current period (representing 1960- 1990) and change in future maize production (from 2000 to 2050s). The effectiveness of agronomic practices, including short duration maize variety, fertilizer use and irrigation, to reduce projected future yield losses due to climate change were simulated. The GCMs project an increase in maximum temperature during growing season ranging from 1.5 to 3°C. Changes in precipitation were dependent on the GCM, with high variability across different topographies land cover types and elevations. Projected warmer temperatures in the future scenarios accelerated plant development and led to a reduction in growing season length and yields even where moisture was sufficient Maize yield changes in 2050 relative to the historical period were highly varied, in excess of +/- 500 kg

Study on the demand of climate finance for developing countries based on submitted INDC

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Wen Zhang

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The 21st Conference of Party (COP21 held in Paris at the end of 2015 has opened a new era for the joint response dealing with climate change globally, and built up a new mode of global climate governance, that is, “all Parties submit INDC – global stocktake – enhance effort of actions – all Parties resubmit INDC – finally achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention.” With 160 INDC reports (covering 188 Parties that the UNFCCC Secretariat has currently received as research objects, this study classifies the mitigation targets of all Parties, and focuses on the systematic analysis of the financial demand, mitigation cost and priority investment areas for developing countries. The results are as follows: among 160 INDC reports, 122 reports clearly include the finance content; 64 reports propose specific amount of financial demand for the implementation of INDC; 31 reports pre-estimate domestic amount and financial demand for greenhouse gas mitigation in 2030, based on which they have calculated that the average mitigation cost for developing countries in 2030 would have reached up to US$22.3 per ton CO2; 28 Parties reclassify the financial demand for mitigation and adaptation areas, and reach the conclusion that the overall financial demand ratio for mitigation and adaptation is 1.4. Should the current mitigation commitments of the Parties from developed countries be used as benchmark, then in 2030 the total amount of financial demand for developing countries in response to climate change would have reached up to US$474 billion.

Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

1994-05-01

This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

Research on Climate and Dengue in Malaysia: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Hii, Yien Ling; Zaki, Rafdzah Ahmad; Aghamohammadi, Nasrin; Rocklöv, Joacim

2016-03-01

Dengue is a climate-sensitive infectious disease. Climate-based dengue early warning may be a simple, low-cost, and effective tool for enhancing surveillance and control. Scientific studies on climate and dengue in local context form the basis for advancing the development of a climate-based early warning system. This study aims to review the current status of scientific studies in climate and dengue and the prospect or challenges of such research on a climate-based dengue early warning system in a dengue-endemic country, taking Malaysia as a case study. We reviewed the relationship between climate and dengue derived from statistical modeling, laboratory tests, and field studies. We searched electronic databases including PubMed, Scopus, EBSCO (MEDLINE), Web of Science, and the World Health Organization publications, and assessed climate factors and their influence on dengue cases, mosquitoes, and virus and recent development in the field of climate and dengue. Few studies in Malaysia have emphasized the relationship between climate and dengue. Climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity are associated with dengue; however, these relationships were not consistent. Climate change projections for Malaysia show a mounting risk for dengue in the future. Scientific studies on climate and dengue enhance dengue surveillance in the long run. It is essential for institutions in Malaysia to promote research on climate and vector-borne diseases to advance the development of climate-based early warning systems. Together, effective strategies that improve existing research capacity, maximize the use of limited resources, and promote local-international partnership are crucial for sustaining research on climate and health.

Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, S.; Raja, I.A.

2014-01-01

Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji.

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Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human

Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georgina Morrow

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Background: Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective: The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design: The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1 the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2 the context within which the policy was developed; 3 the relevant processes; and 4 the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results: The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions: The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should

Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

Science.gov (United States)

Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

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Xuezhen Ge

Full Text Available As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier (Coleoptera: Curculionidae has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010 and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040 provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0. Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Ecosystem size structure response to 21st century climate projection: large fish abundance decreases in the central North Pacific and increases in the California Current.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A; Polovina, Jeffrey J; Dunne, John P; Blanchard, Julia L

2013-03-01

Output from an earth system model is paired with a size-based food web model to investigate the effects of climate change on the abundance of large fish over the 21st century. The earth system model, forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special report on emission scenario A2, combines a coupled climate model with a biogeochemical model including major nutrients, three phytoplankton functional groups, and zooplankton grazing. The size-based food web model includes linkages between two size-structured pelagic communities: primary producers and consumers. Our investigation focuses on seven sites in the North Pacific, each highlighting a specific aspect of projected climate change, and includes top-down ecosystem depletion through fishing. We project declines in large fish abundance ranging from 0 to 75.8% in the central North Pacific and increases of up to 43.0% in the California Current (CC) region over the 21st century in response to change in phytoplankton size structure and direct physiological effects. We find that fish abundance is especially sensitive to projected changes in large phytoplankton density and our model projects changes in the abundance of large fish being of the same order of magnitude as changes in the abundance of large phytoplankton. Thus, studies that address only climate-induced impacts to primary production without including changes to phytoplankton size structure may not adequately project ecosystem responses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

1994-01-01

This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

2013-12-01

on public health and identify appropriate adaptation strategies. Several studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on health, which have included evaluating the current associations between the recent changes in climate, and the evidence base analysis of current, as well as projecting the future impacts of climate change on health. This study will document the use of building an integrated approach for sustainable management of climate, environmental, health surveillance and epidemiological data that will support the assessment of vulnerability, impact and adaption to climate change.

The exotic invasive plant Vincetoxicum rossicum is a strong competitor even outside its current realized climatic temperature range

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laurа Sanderson

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Dog-strangling vine (Vincetoxicum rossicum is an exotic plant originating from Central and Eastern Europe that is becoming increasingly invasive in southern Ontario, Canada. Once established, it successfully displaces local native plant species but mechanisms behind this plant’s high competitive ability are not fully understood. It is unknown whether cooler temperatures will limit the range expansion of V. rossicum, which has demonstrated high tolerance for other environmental variables such as light and soil moisture. Furthermore, if V. rossicum can establish outside its current climatic limit it is unknown whether competition with native species can significantly contribute to reduce fitness and slow down invasion. We conducted an experiment to test the potential of V. rossicum to spread into northern areas of Ontario using a set of growth chambers to simulate southern and northern Ontario climatic temperature regimes. We also tested plant-plant competition by growing V. rossicum in pots with a highly abundant native species, Solidago canadensis, and comparing growth responses to plants grown alone. We found that the fitness of V. rossicum was not affected by the cooler climate despite a delay in reproductive phenology. Growing V. rossicum with S. canadensis caused a significant reduction in seedpod biomass of V. rossicum. However, we did not detect a temperature x competition interaction in spite of evidence for adaptation of S. canadensis to cooler temperature conditions. We conclude that the spread of V. rossicum north within the tested range is unlikely to be limited by climatic temperature but competition with an abundant native species may contribute to slow it down.

Japan's Ambivalent Diplomacy on Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pajon, C.

2010-01-01

Japan often pictures itself as an environmental leader. While many examples of Japan's actions against climate change are in line with global climate change norms, others can be in opposition to them. This study, based on first hand interviews with Japanese policy makers and actors from the private and civil society sector, gives an informed perspective on the process through which Japan came to integrate and implement, at the domestic level, the international objective of climate change prevention, pointing out the discrepancies, tensions or synergies that emerged. As the current governance on climate change, and particularly after the Copenhagen conference, tends to reassert the importance of the national level against the global one, the Japanese case can serve as an example of tools and strategies that fully integrate the domestic level

Pleistocene climate, phylogeny, and climate envelope models: an integrative approach to better understand species' response to climate change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A Michelle Lawing

Full Text Available Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we synthesize geological evidence in the form of stable oxygen isotopes, general circulation paleoclimate models, species' evolutionary relatedness, and species' geographic distributions. We use the stable oxygen isotope record to develop a series of temporally high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Recent, which we use to map ancestral climatic envelope reconstructions for North American rattlesnakes. A simple linear interpolation between current climate and a general circulation paleoclimate model of the LGM using stable oxygen isotope ratios provides good estimates of paleoclimate at other time periods. We use geologically informed rates of change derived from these reconstructions to predict magnitudes and rates of change in species' suitable habitat over the next century. Our approach to modeling the past suitable habitat of species is general and can be adopted by others. We use multiple lines of evidence of past climate (isotopes and climate models, phylogenetic topology (to correct the models for long-term changes in the suitable habitat of a species, and the fossil record, however sparse, to cross check the models. Our models indicate the annual rate of displacement in a clade of rattlesnakes over the next century will be 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater (430-2,420 m/yr than it has been on average for the past 320 ky (2.3 m/yr.

Climate Change and Food Security in Tanzania: Analysis of Current ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Food systems in Tanzania are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability due to poor adaptive capacity of ... available GCMs and downscaling techniques ... water for hydroelectric power generation ... for farm-level decision making.

From Resistance to Receptiveness: Farmer Willingness to Participate in Extension Discussions About Climate Variability and Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David C. Diehl

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Identifying what Extension professionals believe are the critical elements of a communication strategy that is most likely to encourage agricultural producers to participate in discussions of climate variability and climate change is pivotal to providing timely solutions to issues facing farmers. The current study involved interviews with 50 Extension professionals from four southeastern states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina who were engaged in ongoing work related to climate and agriculture. Respondents were asked to assess how best to engage farmers in conversations related to climate variability and climate change. Qualitative analysis showed that Extension professionals recommended avoiding content related to politics, attribution of climate change to human causes, and telling farmers what to do. Respondents recommended emphasizing adaptation strategies, climate variability over climate change, evidence that climate change exists, and the financial benefits for farmers. In addition, Extension professionals proposed several delivery methods they thought would be most effective with farmers, including delivery tailored to the characteristics of the audience, a positive overall tone, and an understanding that engagement should be viewed as a long-term process based on building relationships with farmers. The findings suggest that farmers are a potentially receptive audience on climate issues when properly approached.

Climate economics in progress 2011; Climate economics in progress 2011

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Perthuis, Christian [Paris-Dauphine University (France); Jouvet, Pierre-Andre [Paris-Ouest University (France); Trotignon, Raphael; Simonet, Gabriela; Boutueil, Virginie [Climate Economics Chair, Paris-Dauphine University (France)

2011-10-01

Climate Economics in Progress offers a global overview of the present status of action on climate change. Drawing on the most recent data, it analyzes the development of carbon markets in Europe and other parts of the world. It also examines the conditions for including major players such as China and new sectors such as agriculture, forestry and transport in the fight against global warming. The book is essential reading for anyone wishing to understand current advances in climate control, which could pave the way for a new form of economic growth. The book brings together a group of researchers whose goal is to make the link between academic research on the economics of climate change and the implementation of operational tools, thereby allowing the climate issue to be integrated into the functioning of the real economy

Research on climate effects. Effects of climate changes. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, W.; Stein, G.

1991-01-01

Global changes affecting the earth are at the forefront of public interest, possibly caused by climate alterations amongst other things. The public expects appropriate measures from politics to successfully adapt to unavoidable climate changes. As well as an investigation into the causes of climatic changes and the corollaries between the different scientific phenomena, the effects on the economy and society must also be examined. The Federal Minister for Research and Technology aims to make a valuable German contribution to international Global Change Research with the focal point ''Effects of Climate Changes on the Ecological and Civil System''. The aim of the workshop was to give an outline of current scientific knowledge, sketch out research requirements and give recommendations on the focal point with regard to the BMFT. (orig.) [de

Simulated Extreme Prepitation Indices over Northeast Brasil in Current Climate and Future Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5

Science.gov (United States)

Wender Santiago Marinho, Marcos; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Cassain Sales, Domingo; Oliveira Guimarães, Sullyandro; Mariano da Silva, Emerson; das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco

2013-04-01

In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation indices, for present and future modeled climates over Northeast of Brazil (NEB), from CORDEX simulations over the domain of Tropical Americas. The period for the model validation was from 1989-2007, using data from the European Center (ECWMF) Reanalysis, ERA-INTERIM, as input to drive the regional model (RAMS 6.0). Reanalysis data were assimilated via both lateral boundaries and the entire domain (a much weaker "central nudging"). Six indices of extreme precipitation were calculated over NEB: the average number of days above 10, 20 and 30 mm in one year (R10, R20, R30), the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) and the maximum rainfall in five consecutive days (RX5). Those indices were compared against two independent databases: MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission). After validation, climate simulations were performed for the present climate (1985-2005) and short-term (2015-2035), mid-term (2045-2065) and long-term (2079 to 2099) future climates for two scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, nesting RAMS into HadGEM2-ES global model (a participant of CMIP5). Along with the indices, we also calculated Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) to study the behavior of daily precipitation in the present and by the end of the 21st century (2079 to 2099) to assess possible changes under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The regional model is capable of representing relatively well the extreme precipitation indices for current climate, but there is some difficulties in performing a proper validation since the observed databases disagree significantly. Future projections show significant changes in most extreme indices. Rnn generally tend to increase, especially under RCP8.5. More significant changes are projected for the long-term period, under RCP8.5, which shows a pronounced R30 enhancement over northern states. CDD tends

Robust Engineering Designs for Infrastructure Adaptation to a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Samaras, C.; Cook, L.

2015-12-01

Infrastructure systems are expected to be functional, durable and safe over long service lives - 50 to over 100 years. Observations and models of climate science show that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities have changed climate, weather and extreme events. Projections of future changes (albeit with uncertainties caused by inadequacies of current climate/weather models) can be made based on scenarios for future emissions, but actual future emissions are themselves uncertain. Most current engineering standards and practices for infrastructure assume that the probabilities of future extreme climate and weather events will match those of the past. Climate science shows that this assumption is invalid, but is unable, at present, to define these probabilities over the service lives of existing and new infrastructure systems. Engineering designs, plans, and institutions and regulations will need to be adaptable for a range of future conditions (conditions of climate, weather and extreme events, as well as changing societal demands for infrastructure services). For their current and future projects, engineers should: Involve all stakeholders (owners, financers, insurance, regulators, affected public, climate/weather scientists, etc.) in key decisions; Use low regret, adaptive strategies, such as robust decision making and the observational method, comply with relevant standards and regulations, and exceed their requirements where appropriate; Publish design studies and performance/failure investigations to extend the body of knowledge for advancement of practice. The engineering community should conduct observational and modeling research with climate/weather/social scientists and the concerned communities and account rationally for climate change in revised engineering standards and codes. This presentation presents initial research on decisionmaking under uncertainty for climate resilient infrastructure design.

Modeling the prospects for climatic change: current state-of-the-art and implications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kellogg, W. M.

1980-04-04

It has been increasingly suggested that the world's climate is going to change in the next several decades, primarily as a result of anthropogenic perturbations to the global carbon cycle brought about by fossil fuel burning and large-scale deforestation. In order to cope with these future climatic changes, it is necessary that tools be developed to predict how complex systems respond to a given change of conditions. This report summarizes the status of our ability to model the planetary system that determines the climate. (ACR)

Climate Change Communication Research: Trends and Implications ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Climate Change Communication Research: Trends and Implications. ... African Journal of Sustainable Development ... with a specific focus on the themes that have dominated current studies, major research methods in use, major theories that ...

Urban local climate zone mapping and apply in urban environment study

Science.gov (United States)

He, Shan; Zhang, Yunwei; Zhang, Jili

2018-02-01

The city’s local climate zone (LCZ) was considered to be a powerful tool for urban climate mapping. But for cities in different countries and regions, the LCZ division methods and results were different, thus targeted researches should be performed. In the current work, a LCZ mapping method was proposed, which is convenient in operation and city planning oriented. In this proposed method, the local climate zoning types were adjusted firstly, according to the characteristics of Chinese city, that more tall buildings and high density. Then the classification method proposed by WUDAPT based on remote sensing data was performed on Xi’an city, as an example, for LCZ mapping. Combined with the city road network, a reasonable expression of the dividing results was provided, to adapt to the characteristics in city planning that land parcels are usually recognized as the basic unit. The proposed method was validated against the actual land use and construction data that surveyed in Xi’an, with results indicating the feasibility of the proposed method for urban LCZ mapping in China.

NUTRItion and CLIMate (NUTRICLIM): investigating the relationship between climate variables and childhood malnutrition through agriculture, an exploratory study in Burkina Faso.

Science.gov (United States)

Sorgho, Raissa; Franke, Jonas; Simboro, Seraphin; Phalkey, Revati; Saeurborn, Rainer

Malnutrition remains a leading cause of death in children in low- and middle-income countries; this will be aggravated by climate change. Annually, 6.9 million deaths of children under 5 were attributable directly or indirectly to malnutrition. Although these figures have recently decreased, evidence shows that a world with a medium climate (local warming up to 3-4 °C) will create an additional 25.2 million malnourished children. This proof of concept study explores the relationships between childhood malnutrition (more specifically stunting), regional agricultural yields, and climate variables through the use of remote sensing (RS) satellite imaging along with algorithms to predict the effect of climate variability on agricultural yields and on malnutrition of children under 5. The success of this proof of purpose study, NUTRItion and CLIMate (NUTRICLIM), should encourage researchers to apply both concept and tools to study of the link between weather variability, crop yield, and malnutrition on a larger scale. It would also allow for linking such micro-level data to climate models and address the challenge of projecting the additional impact of childhood malnutrition from climate change to various policy relevant time horizons.

A Long-Term and Reproducible Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration Data Record for Climate Studies and Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, G.; Meier, W. N.; Scott, D. J.; Savoie, M. H.

2013-01-01

A long-term, consistent, and reproducible satellite-based passive microwave sea ice concentration climate data record (CDR) is available for climate studies, monitoring, and model validation with an initial operation capability (IOC). The daily and monthly sea ice concentration data are on the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) polar stereographic grid with nominal 25 km × 25 km grid cells in both the Southern and Northern Hemisphere polar regions from 9 July 1987 to 31 December 2007. The data files are available in the NetCDF data format at http://nsidc.org/data/g02202.html and archived by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the satellite climate data record program (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/operationalcdrs.html). The description and basic characteristics of the NOAA/NSIDC passive microwave sea ice concentration CDR are presented here. The CDR provides similar spatial and temporal variability as the heritage products to the user communities with the additional documentation, traceability, and reproducibility that meet current standards and guidelines for climate data records. The data set, along with detailed data processing steps and error source information, can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.7265/N5B56GN3.

Multilevel model of safety climate for furniture industries.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigues, Matilde A; Arezes, Pedro M; Leão, Celina P

2015-01-01

Furniture companies can analyze their safety status using quantitative measures. However, the data needed are not always available and the number of accidents is under-reported. Safety climate scales may be an alternative. However, there are no validated Portuguese scales that account for the specific attributes of the furniture sector. The current study aims to develop and validate an instrument that uses a multilevel structure to measure the safety climate of the Portuguese furniture industry. The Safety Climate in Wood Industries (SCWI) model was developed and applied to the safety climate analysis using three different scales: organizational, group and individual. A multilevel exploratory factor analysis was performed to analyze the factorial structure. The studied companies' safety conditions were also analyzed. Different factorial structures were found between and within levels. In general, the results show the presence of a group-level safety climate. The scores of safety climates are directly and positively related to companies' safety conditions; the organizational scale is the one that best reflects the actual safety conditions. The SCWI instrument allows for the identification of different safety climates in groups that comprise the same furniture company and it seems to reflect those groups' safety conditions. The study also demonstrates the need for a multilevel analysis of the studied instrument.

An idealized study of the impact of extratropical climate change on El Nino-Southern Oscillation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Qiong [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Science, Beijing (China); Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, Beijing (China); Zhong, Yafang [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States); Wang, Dongxiao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Laboratory of Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics, Guangzhou (China); South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou (China)

2005-12-01

Extratropical impacts on the tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are studied in a coupled climate model. Idealized experiments show that the remote impact of the extratropics on the equatorial thermocline through oceanic tunnel can substantially modulate the ENSO in both magnitude and frequency. First of all, an extratropical warming can be conveyed to the equator by the mean subduction current, resulting in a warming of the equatorial thermocline. Second, the extratropical warming can weaken the Hadley cells, which in turn slow down the mean shallow meridional overturning circulations in the upper Pacific, reducing the equatorward cold water supply and the equatorial upwelling. These oceanic dynamic processes would weaken the stratification of the equatorial thermocline and retard a buildup (purge) of excess heat content along the equator, and finally result in a weaker and longer ENSO cycle. This study highlights a nonlocal mechanism in which ENSO behavior is related to the extratropical climate conditions. (orig.)

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

A study on relationship between organizational climate and creativity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Akbar Ahmadi

2013-11-01

Full Text Available This study examines the relationship between organizational climate and women employees' creativity of Tabriz Red Crescent Organization. The research method is descriptive correlation performed among 120 women employed at the Red Crescent and 100 cases were selected for the proposed study. For data collection, Hoy and Miskel (2005's organizational climate and Randsyp creativity questionnaires with 0.78 and 0.82 Cronbach's alpha coefficients were used. Pearson correlation and multiple regressions were used to analyze research hypotheses. Results showed that there was a significant relationship between two indices of manager and subordinate behaviors and creativity. In addition, in investigating the relationship between climate and creativity components, findings showed that there was a significant relationship only between cooperation and pretending to job dimensions and creativity. This study also has shown that managers' behavior is closed and employees' behavior is more open than managers are.

Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

2016-01-01

The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimating mobilized private climate finance for developing countries - A Norwegian pilot study

OpenAIRE

Torvanger, Asbjørn; Narbel, Patrick; Lund, Harald Francke

2015-01-01

The point of departure for this study is the available data in Norway on climate finance for developing countries. The bottleneck in tracking mobilized private climate finance is availability and quality of data. The main challenge is that Norwegian public institutions sourcing public support for climate finance have not yet implemented sufficient systems for measurement, reporting and verification of mobilized private climate finance. In addition, climate finance tracking is constrained by m...

Interactions of changing climate and shifts in forest composition on stand carbon balance

Science.gov (United States)

Chiang Jyh-Min; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Kim Brown

2006-01-01

Given that climate influences forest biogeographic distribution, many researchers have created models predicting shifts in tree species range with future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to investigate the forest carbon consequences of shifts in stand species composition with current and future climate scenarios using such a model.

Trade and climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tamiotti, L.; Teh, R.; Kulacoglu, V. (World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva (Switzerland)); Olhoff, A.; Simmons, B.; Abaza, H. (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (Denmark))

2009-06-15

The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. (author)

Multidimensional relationships between paternalistic leadership and perceptions of organizational ethical climates.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yu-Chi; Tsai, Ping Ju

2012-10-01

This study investigated how paternalistic leadership is linked to ethical climates based on a multidimensional construct perspective. This experimental study utilized the partial least squares (PLS) techniques to analyze the data. Participants were 258 civil servants working in various public sectors in Taiwan, who were asked to rate their leaders' paternalistic leadership behaviors and their perception of the ethical climates in their organizations using the Paternalistic Leadership Scale and the Ethical Climate Questionnaire. Using the unidimensional constructs of paternalistic leadership and ethical climates, prior research showed vidence of a positive relationship; however, in the current study, multidimensional relations among these constructs may be positive or negative. The findings of this study suggested that leaders may implement specific types of paternalistic leadership to enhance the intended ethical climate in their organizations.

Who is producing current without derailing the climate?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huet, Sylvestre

2014-01-01

The author examines whether it would be possible to massively produce electricity without disturbing the climate. He outlines the rather high level of CO 2 emissions by the energy sector in the World, the continuous increase of electricity consumption (mainly due to China). He comments the level of energy transition in western countries (level of low-carbon or de-carbonated energy), and notices that some good performance are due to the levels of nuclear energy and hydroelectric energy. He discusses the challenges raised by a perspective of phasing out nuclear for different countries

Energy climate study. Energy assessment, Greenhouse gas emission assessment, Analysis of vulnerability to climate change, Courses of mitigation and adaptation actions. Full report + Appendices + Restitution of the Energy-Climate Study, September 17, 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

After a brief presentation of Le Mans region, a presentation of the study (context, scope, methodology), and a recall of challenges related to energy and to climate, this study reports a situational analysis and a discussion of development perspectives for energy production on the concerned territory, an assessment of energy consumptions and of greenhouse gas emissions by the different sectors, and a study of territory vulnerability to climate change (methodology, territory characteristics, climate scenarios, vulnerability assessment). It discusses lessons learned from energy and greenhouse gas emission assessments (social-economic stakes, territory strengths and weaknesses, perspectives for action). It discusses the implementation of these issues within a territorial planning document, and the perspective of elaboration of a territorial climate energy plan. An appendix reports an assessment of the potential of development of the different renewable energies (hydroelectric, solar photovoltaic and thermal, wind, wood, methanization, and other processes like waste valorisation, geothermal, and heat networks). Another appendix reports the precise assessment of greenhouse gas emissions on the territory. The next appendix proposes detailed descriptions of scenarios for the implementation of the issue of greenhouse gas emissions within the territorial planning document. The last appendix contains Power Point presentations of the study

The Study of Climate on Alien Worlds

OpenAIRE

Heng, Kevin

2012-01-01

Comment: Published in American Scientist: Volume 100, Number 4, Pages 334 to 341. Text-only version. Full version available at http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/feature/2012/4/the-study-of-climate-on-alien-worlds

The health impacts of climate-related migration.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwerdtle, Patricia; Bowen, Kathryn; McMichael, Celia

2017-12-11

Changes in climate, in conjunction with other drivers of mobility, shape human migration. While there is an increasing focus on the adaptive potential of migration, the health impacts of climate-related migration, including planned relocation and forced displacement, have not been thoroughly examined. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that migration is currently, and will increasingly be, influenced by environmental degradation and climate change, and that it needs to be addressed in a focused and coordinated manner. This paper examines the links between climate change, migration, and health, considering diverse migration responses, including immobility, forced displacement and planned migration, as well as the associated health risks and opportunities in different contexts. Using case studies, the paper illustrates strategies to reduce the health risks associated with climate change-related migration. While there is an increasing body of research examining the climate change-migration nexus, a dual approach is now required. This approach must include debate and further research regarding the health consequences and responses associated with climate migration as well as immediate strengthening of health systems to make them both climate resilient and migrant inclusive.

Climate-driven polar motion

Science.gov (United States)

Celaya, Michael A.; Wahr, John M.; Bryan, Frank O.

1999-06-01

The output of a coupled climate system model provides a synthetic climate record with temporal and spatial coverage not attainable with observational data, allowing evaluation of climatic excitation of polar motion on timescales of months to decades. Analysis of the geodetically inferred Chandler excitation power shows that it has fluctuated by up to 90% since 1900 and that it has characteristics representative of a stationary Gaussian process. Our model-predicted climate excitation of the Chandler wobble also exhibits variable power comparable to the observed. Ocean currents and bottom pressure shifts acting together can alone drive the 14-month wobble. The same is true of the excitation generated by the combined effects of barometric pressure and winds. The oceanic and atmospheric contributions are this large because of a relatively high degree of constructive interference between seafloor pressure and currents and between atmospheric pressure and winds. In contrast, excitation by the redistribution of water on land appears largely insignificant. Not surprisingly, the full climate effect is even more capable of driving the wobble than the effects of the oceans or atmosphere alone are. Our match to the observed annual excitation is also improved, by about 17%, over previous estimates made with historical climate data. Efforts to explain the 30-year Markowitz wobble meet with less success. Even so, at periods ranging from months to decades, excitation generated by a model of a coupled climate system makes a close approximation to the amplitude of what is geodetically observed.

Climate negotiators' and scientists' assessments of the climate negotiations

Science.gov (United States)

Dannenberg, Astrid; Zitzelsberger, Sonja; Tavoni, Alessandro

2017-06-01

Climate negotiation outcomes are difficult to evaluate objectively because there are no clear reference scenarios. Subjective assessments from those directly involved in the negotiations are particularly important, as this may influence strategy and future negotiation participation. Here we analyse the perceived success of the climate negotiations in a sample of 656 experts involved in international climate policy. Respondents were pessimistic when asked for specific assessments of the current approach centred on voluntary pledges, but were more optimistic when asked for general assessments of the outcomes and usefulness of the climate negotiations. Individuals who were more involved in the negotiation process tended to be more optimistic, especially in terms of general assessments. Our results indicate that two reinforcing effects are at work: a high degree of involvement changes individuals' perceptions and more optimistic individuals are more inclined to remain involved in the negotiations.

Climate change: biological and human aspects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jonathan Cowie

2007-07-15

The textbook provides a broad review of past, present and likely future climate change from the viewpoints of biology, ecology and human ecology. Contents are: 1. An introduction to climate change; 2. Principal indicators of past climates; 3. Past climate change; 4. The Oligocene to the Quaternary: climate and biology; 5. Present climate and biological change; 6. Current warming and likely future impacts; 7. Human ecology of climate change; 8. Sustainability and policy; Appendix 1. Glossary and acronyms; Appendix 2. Bio-geological timescale; Appendix 3. Calculations of energy demand/supply, and orders of magnitude; Index. 69 figs.

An assessment of global climate model-simulated climate for the western cordillera of Canada (1961-90)

Science.gov (United States)

Bonsal, Barrie R.; Prowse, Terry D.; Pietroniro, Alain

2003-12-01

Climate change is projected to significantly affect future hydrologic processes over many regions of the world. This is of particular importance for alpine systems that provide critical water supplies to lower-elevation regions. The western cordillera of Canada is a prime example where changes to temperature and precipitation could have profound hydro-climatic impacts not only for the cordillera itself, but also for downstream river systems and the drought-prone Canadian Prairies. At present, impact researchers primarily rely on global climate models (GCMs) for future climate projections. The main objective of this study is to assess several GCMs in their ability to simulate the magnitude and spatial variability of current (1961-90) temperature and precipitation over the western cordillera of Canada. In addition, several gridded data sets of observed climate for the study region are evaluated.Results reveal a close correspondence among the four gridded data sets of observed climate, particularly for temperature. There is, however, considerable variability regarding the various GCM simulations of this observed climate. The British, Canadian, German, Australian, and US GFDL models are superior at simulating the magnitude and spatial variability of mean temperature. The Japanese GCM is of intermediate ability, and the US NCAR model is least representative of temperature in this region. Nearly all the models substantially overestimate the magnitude of total precipitation, both annually and on a seasonal basis. An exception involves the British (Hadley) model, which best represents the observed magnitude and spatial variability of precipitation. This study improves our understanding regarding the accuracy of GCM climate simulations over the western cordillera of Canada. The findings may assist in producing more reliable future scenarios of hydro-climatic conditions over various regions of the country. Copyright

White book Escrime. Climatic simulation studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Terray, L.; Braconnot, P.

2007-01-01

The ESCRIME project aims to manage the analysis realized on the climatic simulations on the framework of the fourth report of the GIEC (group of intergovernmental experts on the climate evolution), in particularly the simulations based on french models. This white book is constituted by 8 chapters: the global scenario, the climatic sensibility, the variation modes, the regionalization and the extremes, the hydrological cycle, the polar regions and the cryo-sphere, the carbon cycle, detection and attributions. (A.L.B.)

Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Isaksen, I.S.A.; Granier, C.; Myhre, G.; Bernsten, T. K.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Gauss, S.; Klimont, Z.; Benestad, R.; Bousquet, P.; Collins, W.;

At a global scale, do climate change threatened species also face a greater number of non-climatic threats?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucas B. Fortini

2017-07-01

Full Text Available For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21% more non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Across all species, this pattern is related to IUCN risk status, where endangered species threatened by climate change face 33% more non-climatic threats than endangered species not threatened by climate change. With the clear challenges of assessing current and projected impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, research often requires reductionist approaches that result in downplaying this multi-threat context. This cautionary note bears relevance beyond climate change threatened species as we also found other (but not all anthropogenic threats are also similarly associated with more threats. Our findings serve as a reminder that ecological research should seriously consider these potential threat interactions, especially for species under elevated conservation concern.

Dust Composition in Climate Models: Current Status and Prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez García-Pando, C.; Miller, R. L.; Perlwitz, J. P.; Kok, J. F.; Scanza, R.; Mahowald, N. M.

2015-12-01

Mineral dust created by wind erosion of soil particles is the dominant aerosol by mass in the atmosphere. It exerts significant effects on radiative fluxes, clouds, ocean biogeochemistry, and human health. Models that predict the lifecycle of mineral dust aerosols generally assume a globally uniform mineral composition. However, this simplification limits our understanding of the role of dust in the Earth system, since the effects of dust strongly depend on the particles' physical and chemical properties, which vary with their mineral composition. Hence, not only a detailed understanding of the processes determining the dust emission flux is needed, but also information about its size dependent mineral composition. Determining the mineral composition of dust aerosols is complicated. The largest uncertainty derives from the current atlases of soil mineral composition. These atlases provide global estimates of soil mineral fractions, but they are based upon massive extrapolation of a limited number of soil samples assuming that mineral composition is related to soil type. This disregards the potentially large variability of soil properties within each defined soil type. In addition, the analysis of these soil samples is based on wet sieving, a technique that breaks the aggregates found in the undisturbed parent soil. During wind erosion, these aggregates are subject to partial fragmentation, which generates differences on the size distribution and composition between the undisturbed parent soil and the emitted dust aerosols. We review recent progress on the representation of the mineral and chemical composition of dust in climate models. We discuss extensions of brittle fragmentation theory to prescribe the emitted size-resolved dust composition, and we identify key processes and uncertainties based upon model simulations and an unprecedented compilation of observations.

Conceptualizing Holistic Community Resilience to Climate Events: Foundation for a Climate Resilience Screening Index

Science.gov (United States)

The concept of resilience has been evolving over the past decade as a way to address the current and future challenges nations, states, and cities face from a changing climate. Understanding how the environment (natural and built), climate event risk, societal interactions, and g...

A multi-hazard regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lung, T.; Lavalle, C.; Hiederer, R.; Dosio, A.; Bouwer, L.M.

2013-01-01

To better prioritise adaptation strategies to a changing climate that are currently being developed, there is a need for quantitative regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple weather hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at

Climate-Smart Farms? Case Studies in Burkina Faso and Colombia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Andrieu, N.; Pédelahore, P.; Howland, F.; Descheemaeker, K.K.E.

2016-01-01

The climate-smart agriculture concept aims to encourage reflection on
the transition to sustainable agricultural systems adapted to climate change. This chapter is based on participatory research studies carried out in Colombia and Burkina Faso to investigate, with farmers, the relevance of new

Current and future climate- and air pollution-mediated impacts on human health.

Science.gov (United States)

Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; Wilkinson, Paul; Pattenden, Sam; Vieno, Massimo; Armstrong, Ben; Atkinson, Richard; Chalabi, Zaid; Kovats, Sari; Milojevic, Ai; Stevenson, David S

2009-12-21

We describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios. Mortality burdens attributable to heat and ozone exposure are estimated by combination of climate-chemistry modelling and epidemiological risk assessment. Weather forecasting models (WRF) are used to simulate the driving meteorology for the EMEP4UK chemistry transport model at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution across the UK; the coupled WRF-EMEP4UK model is used to simulate daily surface temperature and ozone concentrations for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006, and for future emission scenarios. The outputs of these models are combined with evidence on the ozone-mortality and heat-mortality relationships derived from epidemiological analyses (time series regressions) of daily mortality in 15 UK conurbations, 1993-2003, to quantify present-day health burdens. During the August 2003 heatwave period, elevated ozone concentrations > 200 microg m-3 were measured at sites in London and elsewhere. This and other ozone photochemical episodes cause breaches of the UK air quality objective for ozone. Simulations performed with WRF-EMEP4UK reproduce the August 2003 heatwave temperatures and ozone concentrations. There remains day-to-day variability in the high ozone concentrations during the heatwave period, which on some days may be explained by ozone import from the European continent.Preliminary calculations using extended time series of spatially-resolved WRF-EMEP4UK model output suggest that in the summers (May to September) of 2003, 2005 & 2006 over 6000 deaths were attributable to ozone and around 5000 to heat in England and Wales. The regional variation in these deaths appears greater for heat-related than for ozone-related burdens.Changes in UK health burdens due to a range of future emission scenarios will be quantified. These future emissions scenarios span a range of possible futures from assuming current air quality

The climate change problem and its consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonava, N.A.

2005-01-01

The problem of climate change is investigated in the current work in Tajikistan. It shows that the changes of the republic thermal mode is connected with climate global changes. The forecast of climate change on 2050 on various models is given

The climate change problem and its consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khakimov, F.Kh.; Mirzokhonova, S.O.; Mirzokhonova, N.A.

2005-01-01

The problem of climate change is investigated in the current work in Tajikistan. It shows that the changes of the republic thermal mode is connected with climate global changes. The forecast of climate change on 2050 on various models are given

Southern Africa’s climate: Current state and recent historical changes

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Davis, C

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Southern Africa is a predominantly semi-arid region with high rainfall variability, characterised by frequent droughts and floods. It is also widely recognised as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change because of low levels of adaptive...

Changes of the climate induced by trace gases. Current state of research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grassl, H

1987-02-01

Any attempt of predicting climatic changes is a very different task, because it requires good insight into and knowledge of a complex system whose components respond very differently in terms of time. Hence there remain many uncertainties in efforts towards 'predicting' climatic changes considering the enhancing greenhouse effect. As with all environmental problems, the best reaction is to conserve resources, and systematically explore the interactions. Reducing the CO/sub 2/, for instance, will be highly awarded. (orig./HSCH).

Climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

Building climate change into infrastructure codes and standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auld, H.; Klaasen, J.; Morris, R.; Fernandez, S.; MacIver, D.; Bernstein, D.

2009-01-01

'Full text:' Building codes and standards and the climatic design values embedded within these legal to semi-legal documents have profound safety, health and economic implications for Canada's infrastructure systems. The climatic design values that have been used for the design of almost all of today's more than $5.5 Trillion in infrastructure are based on historical climate data and assume that the extremes of the past will represent future conditions. Since new infrastructure based on codes and standards will be built to survive for decades to come, it is critically important that existing climatic design information be as accurate and up-to-date as possible, that the changing climate be monitored to detect and highlight vulnerabilities of existing infrastructure, that forensic studies of climate-related failures be undertaken and that codes and standards processes incorporate future climates and extremes as much as possible. Uncertainties in the current climate change models and their scenarios currently challenge our ability to project future extremes regionally and locally. Improvements to the spatial and temporal resolution of these climate change scenarios, along with improved methodologies to treat model biases and localize results, will allow future codes and standards to better reflect the extremes and weathering conditions expected over the lifespan of structures. In the meantime, other information and code processes can be used to incorporate changing climate conditions into upcoming infrastructure codes and standards, to “bridge” the model uncertainty gap and to complement the state of existing projections. This presentation will outline some of the varied information and processes that will be used to incorporate climate change adaptation into the next development cycle of the National Building Code of Canada and numerous other national CSA infrastructure standards. (author)

Global climate change and above- belowground insect herbivore interactions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scott Wesley McKenzie

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Predicted changes to the Earth’s climate are likely to affect above-belowground interactions. Our understanding is limited, however, by past focus on two-species aboveground interactions mostly ignoring belowground influences. Despite their importance to ecosystem processes, there remains a dearth of empirical evidence showing how climate change will affect above-belowground interactions. The responses of above- and belowground organisms to climate change are likely to differ given the fundamentally different niches they inhabit. Yet there are few studies that address the biological and ecological reactions of belowground herbivores to environmental conditions in current and future climates. Even fewer studies investigate the consequences of climate change for above-belowground interactions between herbivores and other organisms; those that do provide no evidence of a directed response. This paper highlights the importance of considering the belowground fauna when making predictions on the effects of climate change on plant-mediated interspecific interactions.

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Makowski, D.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Bassu, S.; Durand, J.L.; Martre, P.; Adam, M.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Baron, C.; Basso, B.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Boogaard, H.; Boote, K.J.; Brisson, N.; Cammarano, D.; Challinor, A.J.; Conijn, J.G.; Corbeels, M.; Deryng, D.; Sanctis, De G.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grassini, P.; Hatfield, J.L.; Heng, L.; Hoek, S.B.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, C.; Jongschaap, R.E.E.; Jones, J.W.; Kemanian, R.A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kim, S.H.; Lizaso, J.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.J.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Pravia, M.V.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Sau, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Teixeira, E.; Thorburn, P.; Timlin, D.; Travasso, M.; Roetter, R.P.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

2015-01-01

Many simulation studies have been carried out to predict the effect of climate change on crop yield. Typically, in such study, one or several crop models are used to simulate series of crop yield values for different climate scenarios corresponding to different hypotheses of temperature, CO2

Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Lake, Iain R; Jones, Natalia R; Agnew, Maureen; Goodess, Clare M; Giorgi, Filippo; Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Semenov, Mikhail A; Solomon, Fabien; Storkey, Jonathan; Vautard, Robert; Epstein, Michelle M

2017-03-01

Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed ( Ambrosia artemisiifolia ) in Europe. A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR

What and How Are We Evaluating? Meta-Evaluation Study of the NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) Portfolio

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, A. M.; Barnes, M. H.; Chambers, L. H.; Pippin, M. R.

2013-12-01

As part of NASA's Minority University Research and Education Program (MUREP), the NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) project at Langley Research Center has funded 71 climate education initiatives since 2008. The funded initiatives span across the nation and contribute to the development of a climate-literate public and the preparation of a climate-related STEM workforce through research experiences, professional development opportunities, development of data access and modeling tools, and educational opportunities in both K-12 and higher education. Each of the funded projects proposes and carries out its own evaluation plan, in collaboration with external or internal evaluation experts. Using this portfolio as an exemplar case, NICE has undertaken a systematic meta-evaluation of these plans, focused primarily on evaluation questions, approaches, and methods. This meta-evaluation study seeks to understand the range of evaluations represented in the NICE portfolio, including descriptive information (what evaluations, questions, designs, approaches, and methods are applied?) and questions of value (do these evaluations meet the needs of projects and their staff, and of NASA/NICE?). In the current climate, as federal funders of climate change and STEM education projects seek to better understand and incorporate evaluation into their decisions, evaluators and project leaders are also seeking to build robust understanding of program effectiveness. Meta-evaluations like this provide some baseline understanding of the current status quo and the kinds of evaluations carried out within such funding portfolios. These explorations are needed to understand the common ground between evaluative best practices, limited resources, and agencies' desires, capacity, and requirements. When NASA asks for evaluation of funded projects, what happens? Which questions are asked and answered, using which tools? To what extent do the evaluations meet the needs of projects and

Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Changes in West Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.

2014-12-01

Agricultural production in West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change and a fast growing demand for food adds yet another challenge. Assessing possible adaptation strategies of crop production in West Africa under climate change is thus critical for ensuring regional food security and improving human welfare. Our previous efforts have identified as the main features of climate change in West Africa a robust increase in temperature and a complex shift in the rainfall pattern (i.e. seasonality delay and total amount change). Unaddressed, these robust climate changes would reduce regional crop production by up to 20%. In the current work, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to comprehensively assess different crop adaptation options under future climate scenarios. Particularly, we assess adaptations in both the choice of crop types and management strategies. The expected outcome of this study is to provide West Africa with region-specific adaptation recommendations that take into account both climate variability and climate change.

Dealing with uncertainties in impact studies of climate change on hydrometeorological series over Segura River Basin (Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Garcia Cardenas, R.; Tetay Botia, C.; Giraldo Osorio, J.; Erena Arrabal, M.; Baille, A.

2011-12-01

The Segura River Basin (SRB) located in the South East of Spain, is affected by recurrent drought and water scarcity episodes. This basin presents the lowest percentage of renewable water resources of all the Spanish basins. Intensive reforestation has been carried out in the region, to halt desertification and erosion, which added to climate change and variability, do not allow the default assumption of stationarity in the water resources systems. Therefore, the study of effects in hydrometeorological series should be addressed by nonstationary probabilistic models that allow describing the time evolution of their probability distribution functions (PDFs). In the present work, the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shaper) approach is applied to identify of spatio-temporal trends in observed precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), at basin scale. Several previous studies have addressed the potential impacts of climate change in water supply systems, focusing on the sensitivity analysis of runoff to climate. Considering the use of a conceptual hydrological model with few parameters, the impacts on runoff and its trend from historical data, are assessed. The conclusions of this study represent a breakthrough in the development of methodologies to understand and anticipate the impacts on water resources systems, in the light of current and future climate conditions, considering hydroclimatic non-stationarity. These findings are expected to contribute to the management of conditions of water resources scarcity and droughts, such as the observed in the SRB, as support to decision-making process by stakeholders.

A study of nurses' ethical climate perceptions: Compromising in an uncompromising environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Humphries, Anne; Woods, Martin

2016-05-01

Acting ethically, in accordance with professional and personal moral values, lies at the heart of nursing practice. However, contextual factors, or obstacles within the work environment, can constrain nurses in their ethical practice - hence the importance of the workplace ethical climate. Interest in nurse workplace ethical climates has snowballed in recent years because the ethical climate has emerged as a key variable in the experience of nurse moral distress. Significantly, this study appears to be the first of its kind carried out in New Zealand. The purpose of this study was to explore and describe how registered nurses working on a medical ward in a New Zealand hospital perceive their workplace ethical climate. This was a small, qualitative descriptive study. Seven registered nurses were interviewed in two focus group meetings. An inductive method of thematic data analysis was used for this research. Ethics approval for this study was granted by the New Zealand Ministry of Health's Central Regional Health and Disability Ethics Committee on 14 June 2012. The themes identified in the data centred on three dominant elements that - together - shaped the prevailing ethical climate: staffing levels, patient throughput and the attitude of some managers towards nursing staff. While findings from this study regarding staffing levels and the power dynamics between nurses and managers support those from other ethical climate studies, of note is the impact of patient throughput on local nurses' ethical practice. This issue has not been singled out as having a detrimental influence on ethical climates elsewhere. Moral distress is inevitable in an ethical climate where the organisation's main priorities are perceived by nursing staff to be budget and patient throughput, rather than patient safety and care. © The Author(s) 2015.

Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Rocha, Adrian; Calvin, Katherine V.; Holmes, Bruce; Wang, Chuankuan; Goulden, Michael L.

2014-01-01

How will regional growth and mortality change with even relatively small climate shifts, even independent of catastrophic disturbances? This question is particularly acute for the North American boreal forest, which is carbon-dense and subject The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean DBH increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly from 41.3 to 37.5 m2 ha-1. Tree mortality averaged 1.4±0.6% yr-1, with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from 2001, 2004, and 2012 sampling showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. There have been at least one, and probably two, significant recruitment episodes since stand initiation, and we infer that past climate extremes led to significant NOBS mortality still visible in the current forest structure. These results imply that a combination of successional and demographic processes, along with mortality driven by abiotic factors, continue to affect the stand, with significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS and the sustainable management of regional forests.

The moderating effects of school climate on bullying prevention efforts.

Science.gov (United States)

Low, Sabina; Van Ryzin, Mark

2014-09-01

Bullying prevention efforts have yielded mixed effects over the last 20 years. Program effectiveness is driven by a number of factors (e.g., program elements and implementation), but there remains a dearth of understanding regarding the role of school climate on the impact of bullying prevention programs. This gap is surprising, given research suggesting that bullying problems and climate are strongly related. The current study examines the moderating role of school climate on the impacts of a stand-alone bullying prevention curriculum. In addition, the current study examined 2 different dimensions of school climate across both student and staff perceptions. Data for this study were derived from a Steps to Respect (STR) randomized efficacy trial that was conducted in 33 elementary schools over a 1-year period. Schools were randomly assigned to intervention or wait-listed control condition. Outcome measures (pre-to-post) were obtained from (a) all school staff, (b) a randomly selected subset of 3rd-5th grade teachers in each school, and (c) all students in classrooms of selected teachers. Multilevel analyses revealed that psychosocial climate was strongly related to reductions in bullying-related attitudes and behaviors. Intervention status yielded only 1 significant main effect, although, STR schools with positive psychosocial climate at baseline had less victimization at posttest. Policies/administrative commitment to bullying were related to reduced perpetration among all schools. Findings suggest positive psychosocial climate (from both staff and student perspective) plays a foundational role in bullying prevention, and can optimize effects of stand-alone programs. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Organizational climate and hospital nurses' caring practices: a mixed-methods study.

Science.gov (United States)

Roch, Geneviève; Dubois, Carl-Ardy; Clarke, Sean P

2014-06-01

Organizational climate in healthcare settings influences patient outcomes, but its effect on nursing care delivery remains poorly understood. In this mixed-methods study, nurse surveys (N = 292) were combined with a qualitative case study of 15 direct-care registered nurses (RNs), nursing personnel, and managers. Organizational climate explained 11% of the variation in RNs' reported frequency of caring practices. Qualitative data suggested that caring practices were affected by the interplay of organizational climate dimensions with patients and nurses characteristics. Workload intensity and role ambiguity led RNs to leave many caring practices to practical nurses and assistive personnel. Systemic interventions are needed to improve organizational climate and to support RNs' involvement in a full range of caring practices. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A report on workshops: General circulation model study of climate- chemistry interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei-Chyung, Wang; Isaksen, I.S.A.

1993-01-01

This report summarizes the discussion on General Circulation Model Study of Climate-Chemistry Interaction from two workshops, the first held 19--21 August 1992 at Oslo, Norway and the second 26--27 May 1993 at Albany, New York, USA. The workshops are the IAMAP activities under the Trace Constituent Working Group. The main objective of the two workshops was to recommend specific general circulation model (GCM) studies of the ozone distribution and the climatic effect of its changes. The workshops also discussed the climatic implications of increasing sulfate aerosols because of its importance to regional climate. The workshops were organized into four working groups: observation of atmospheric O 3 ; modeling of atmospheric chemical composition; modeling of sulfate aerosols; and aspects of climate modeling

Silvicultural approaches to maintain forest health and productivity under current and future climates

Science.gov (United States)

Paul D. Anderson; Daniel J. Chmura

2009-01-01

Climate modeling based on a variety of scenarios for the Pacific Northwest suggests that over the next century temperatures may increase and that the abundance of summer precipitation may decline. Historically, climate changes at the century scale have been accompanied by adjustments in species population sizes and the composition of vegetation communities....

Potential relocation of climatic environments suggests high rates of climate displacement within the North American protection network.

Science.gov (United States)

Batllori, Enric; Parisien, Marc-André; Parks, Sean A; Moritz, Max A; Miller, Carol

2017-08-01

Ongoing climate change may undermine the effectiveness of protected area networks in preserving the set of biotic components and ecological processes they harbor, thereby jeopardizing their conservation capacity into the future. Metrics of climate change, particularly rates and spatial patterns of climatic alteration, can help assess potential threats. Here, we perform a continent-wide climate change vulnerability assessment whereby we compare the baseline climate of the protected area network in North America (Canada, United States, México-NAM) to the projected end-of-century climate (2071-2100). We estimated the projected pace at which climatic conditions may redistribute across NAM (i.e., climate velocity), and identified future nearest climate analogs to quantify patterns of climate relocation within, among, and outside protected areas. Also, we interpret climatic relocation patterns in terms of associated land-cover types. Our analysis suggests that the conservation capacity of the NAM protection network is likely to be severely compromised by a changing climate. The majority of protected areas (~80%) might be exposed to high rates of climate displacement that could promote important shifts in species abundance or distribution. A small fraction of protected areas (climates that represent analogs of conditions currently characterizing almost a fifth of the protected areas across NAM. However, the majority of nearest climatic analogs for protected areas are in nonprotected locations. Therefore, unprotected landscapes could pose additional threats, beyond climate forcing itself, as sensitive biota may have to migrate farther than what is prescribed by the climate velocity to reach a protected area destination. To mitigate future threats to the conservation capacity of the NAM protected area network, conservation plans will need to capitalize on opportunities provided by the existing availability of natural land-cover types outside the current network of NAM

Measuring Sexual Violence on Campus: Climate Surveys and Vulnerable Groups

Science.gov (United States)

de Heer, Brooke; Jones, Lynn

2017-01-01

Since the 2014 "Not Alone" report on campus sexual assault, the use of climate surveys to measure sexual violence on campuses across the United States has increased considerably. The current study utilizes a quasi meta-analysis approach to examine the utility of general campus climate surveys, which include a measure of sexual violence,…

Modelling the energy and exergy utilisation of the Mexican non-domestic sector: A study by climatic regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García Kerdan, Iván; Morillón Gálvez, David; Raslan, Rokia; Ruyssevelt, Paul

2015-01-01

This paper presents the development of a bottom-up stock model to perform a holistic energy study of the Mexican non-domestic sector. The current energy and exergy flows are shown based on a categorisation by climatic regions with the aim of understanding the impact of local characteristics on regional efficiencies. Due to the limited data currently available, the study is supported by the development of a detailed archetype-based stock model using EnergyPlus as a first law analysis tool combined with an existing exergy analysis method. Twenty-one reference models were created to estimate the electric and gas use in the sector. The results indicate that sectoral energy and exergy annual input are 95.37 PJ and 94.28 PJ, respectively. Regional exergy efficiencies were found to be 17.8%, 16.6% and 23.2% for the hot-dry, hot-humid and temperate climates, respectively. The study concludes that significant potential for improvements still exists, especially in the cases of space conditioning, lighting, refrigeration, and cooking where most exergy destructions occur. Additionally, this work highlights that the method described may be further used to study the impact of large-scale refurbishments and promote national regulations and standards for sustainable buildings that takes into consideration energy and exergy indicators. - Highlights: • A bottom-up physics model was developed to analyse the Mexican commercial stock. • A detailed energy analysis by climate, buildings and end-uses is presented. • The Mexican non-domestic sector as a whole has an exergy efficiency of 19.7%. • The lowest regional exergy efficiency is found at the hot-humid region with 16.6%. • By end use, the highest exergy destructions are caused by HVAC and lighting

Predicted Changes in Climatic Niche and Climate Refugia of Conservation Priority Salamander Species in the Northeastern United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William B. Sutton

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1 evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2 using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus, Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi, Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia, Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei, and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch, whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, Jr, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J [University of Washington, Seattle, WA (USA). Inst. for Environmental Studies, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

1992-01-24

Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square metre, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes. 73 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols.

Science.gov (United States)

Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J

1992-01-24

Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of shortwavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.

The climate impact of future energy peat production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hagberg, Linus; Holmgren, Kristina

2008-09-15

The aim of this study was to estimate total greenhouse gas emissions and climate impact of different peat utilisation scenarios, using a life cycle perspective. This and previous studies show that the climate impact from energy peat utilisation is more complex than just considering the emissions at the combustion stage. There are important emissions and uptake of greenhouse gases that occur on the peatland before, during and after peat harvest. The results show that the climate impact of future peat utilisation can be significantly reduced compared to current utilisation and will be lower than the climate impact resulting from only the combustion phase. This can be achieved by choosing already drained peatlands with high greenhouse gas emissions, using a more efficient production method and by securing a low-emission after-treatment of the cutaway (e.g. afforestation)

A SIMULATION STUDY ON THE SHRUNK WETLAND AROUND QINGHAI LAKE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WANG HanJie; JING Li; GAO YunXiao

2005-01-01

Because of the increasing concerns about global climate change, it has been known by more and more peoples that there is a close relationship between wetland and/or peatland resources and climate change. This paper presents a new methodology to study the local climate variation caused by wetland shrinking around Qinghai Lake, the largest in-land salty lake in China, by use of a regional climate model (RCM) that commonly used in climate change study. The objective focuses on the regional climate effect of the shrunk wetland coverage in recent years. The results of numerical experiment showed that if the wetland coverage around Qinhai Lake were recovered as if in early 50s of last century,the regional climate in this area could be better with more cloud covers, higher relative humidity and more precipitation. In the other word, the area of wetland reduced is one of the most important reasons that caused regional climate aridification,eco-environmental deterioration and even desertification around Qinhai Lake.

Functional and phylogenetic relatedness in temporary wetland invertebrates: current macroecological patterns and implications for future climatic change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruhí, Albert; Boix, Dani; Gascón, Stéphanie; Sala, Jordi; Batzer, Darold P

2013-01-01

In freshwater ecosystems, species compositions are known to be determined hierarchically by large to small‑scale environmental factors, based on the biological traits of the organisms. However, in ephemeral habitats this heuristic framework remains largely untested. Although temporary wetland faunas are constrained by a local filter (i.e., desiccation), we propose its magnitude may still depend on large-scale climate characteristics. If this is true, climate should be related to the degree of functional and taxonomic relatedness of invertebrate communities inhabiting seasonal wetlands. We tested this hypothesis in two ways. First, based on 52 biological traits for invertebrates, we conducted a case study to explore functional trends among temperate seasonal wetlands differing in the harshness (i.e., dryness) of their dry season. After finding evidence of trait filtering, we addressed whether it could be generalized across a broader climatic scale. To this end, a meta-analysis (225 seasonal wetlands spread across broad climatic categories: Arid, Temperate, and Cold) allowed us to identify whether an equivalent climate-dependent pattern of trait richness was consistent between the Nearctic and the Western Palearctic. Functional overlap of invertebrates increased from mild (i.e., Temperate) to harsher climates (i.e., Arid and Cold), and phylogenetic clustering (using taxonomy as a surrogate) was highest in Arid and lowest in Temperate wetlands. We show that, (i) as has been described in streams, higher relatedness than would be expected by chance is generally observed in seasonal wetland invertebrate communities; and (ii) this relatedness is not constant but climate-dependent, with the climate under which a given seasonal wetland is located determining the functional overlap and the phylogenetic clustering of the community. Finally, using a space-for-time substitution approach we suggest our results may anticipate how the invertebrate biodiversity embedded in these

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

2016-01-01

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (−) and one month ago (−)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (−)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future. PMID:26848675

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hsin-I Hsiao

2016-02-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+, ocean temperature (+, ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+, maximum daily rainfall (current (− and one month ago (−, and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (− had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future.

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

2016-02-03

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (-) and one month ago (-)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (-)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future.

Climate related diseases. Current regional variability and projections to the year 2100

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Błażejczyk Krzysztof

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The health of individuals and societies depends on different factors including atmospheric conditions which influence humans in direct and indirect ways. The paper presents regional variability of some climate related diseases (CRD in Poland: salmonellosis intoxications, Lyme boreliosis, skin cancers (morbidity and mortality, influenza, overcooling deaths, as well as respiratory and circulatory mortality. The research consisted of two stages: 1 statistical modelling basing on past data and 2 projections of CRD for three SRES scenarios of climate change (A1B, A2, B1 to the year 2100. Several simple and multiply regression models were found for the relationships between climate variables and CRD. The models were applied to project future levels of CRD. At the end of 21st century we must expect increase in: circulatory mortality, Lyme boreliosis infections and skin cancer morbidity and mortality. There is also projected decrease in: respiratory mortality, overcooling deaths and influenza infections.

Development and validation of a new safety climate scale for petrochemical industries.

Science.gov (United States)

Jafari, Mohammad Javad; Eskandari, Davood; Valipour, Firouz; Mehrabi, Yadollah; Charkhand, Hossein; Mirghotbi, Mostafa

2017-01-01

While a considerable body of research has studied safety climate and its role as a leading indicator of organizational safety, much of this work has been conducted with Western manufacturing samples. The current study puts emphasis on the cross-validation of a safety climate model in the non-Western industrial context of Iranian petrochemical industries. The current study was performed in one petrochemical company in Iran. The scale was developed through conducting a literature review followed by a qualitative study with expert participation. After performing a screening process, the initial number of items on the scale was reduced to 68. Ten dimensions (including management commitment, workers' empowerment, communication, blame culture, safety training, job satisfaction, interpersonal relationship, supervision, continuous improvement, and reward system) together with 37 items were extracted from the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to measure safety climate. Acceptable ranges of internal consistency statistics for the sub-scales were observed. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) confirmed the construct validity of the developed safety climate scale for the petrochemical industry workers. The results of reliability showed that the Cronbach's alpha coefficient for the designed scale was 0.94. The ICC was obtained 0.92. This study created a valid and reliable scale for measuring safety climate in petrochemical industries.

Nurses' perceptions of climate and environmental issues: a qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Anåker, Anna; Nilsson, Maria; Holmner, Åsa; Elf, Marie

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to explore nurses' perceptions of climate and environmental issues and examine how nurses perceive their role in contributing to the process of sustainable development. Climate change and its implications for human health represent an increasingly important issue for the healthcare sector. According to the International Council of Nurses Code of Ethics, nurses have a responsibility to be involved and support climate change mitigation and adaptation to protect human health. This is a descriptive, explorative qualitative study. Nurses (n = 18) were recruited from hospitals, primary care and emergency medical services; eight participated in semi-structured, in-depth individual interviews and 10 participated in two focus groups. Data were collected from April-October 2013 in Sweden; interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using content analysis. Two main themes were identified from the interviews: (i) an incongruence between climate and environmental issues and nurses' daily work; and (ii) public health work is regarded as a health co-benefit of climate change mitigation. While being green is not the primary task in a lifesaving, hectic and economically challenging context, nurses' perceived their profession as entailing responsibility, opportunities and a sense of individual commitment to influence the environment in a positive direction. This study argues there is a need for increased awareness of issues and methods that are crucial for the healthcare sector to respond to climate change. Efforts to develop interventions should explore how nurses should be able to contribute to the healthcare sector's preparedness for and contributions to sustainable development. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The relationship between team climate and interprofessional collaboration: preliminary results of a mixed methods study

OpenAIRE

Bailey, Christopher; Agreli, Heloise F.; Peduzzi, Marina

2016-01-01

Relational and organisational factors are key elements of interprofessional collaboration (IPC) and team climate. Few studies have explored the relationship between IPC and team climate. This article presents a study that 10 aimed to explore IPC in primary healthcare teams and understand how the assessment of team climate may provide insights into IPC. A mixed methods study design was adopted. In Stage 1 of the study, team climate was assessed using the Team Climate Inventory with 159 profess...

Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosbjerg, Dan

2017-01-01

. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate......More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level...... and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level...

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Delong; Wu, Shuyao; Liu, Laibao; Zhang, Yatong; Li, Shuangcheng

2018-05-27

Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Visualizing interconnections among climate risks

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, K.; Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Emori, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Honda, Y.; Okada, M.; Masaki, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Yoshimori, M.; Sueyoshi, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Lim, W. H.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2015-12-01

therefore imperative to improve our understanding on how climate change may induce a chain of impacts. Our study is a first step toward this goal by mapping out climate risks and their cause-effect relationships based on current literature.

Modeling and assessing international climate financing

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jing; Tang, Lichun; Mohamed, Rayman; Zhu, Qianting; Wang, Zheng

2016-06-01

Climate financing is a key issue in current negotiations on climate protection. This study establishes a climate financing model based on a mechanism in which donor countries set up funds for climate financing and recipient countries use the funds exclusively for carbon emission reduction. The burden-sharing principles are based on GDP, historical emissions, and consumptionbased emissions. Using this model, we develop and analyze a series of scenario simulations, including a financing program negotiated at the Cancun Climate Change Conference (2010) and several subsequent programs. Results show that sustained climate financing can help to combat global climate change. However, the Cancun Agreements are projected to result in a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2100 compared to the scenario without climate financing. Longer-term climate financing programs should be established to achieve more significant benefits. Our model and simulations also show that climate financing has economic benefits for developing countries. Developed countries will suffer a slight GDP loss in the early stages of climate financing, but the longterm economic growth and the eventual benefits of climate mitigation will compensate for this slight loss. Different burden-sharing principles have very similar effects on global temperature change and economic growth of recipient countries, but they do result in differences in GDP changes for Japan and the FSU. The GDP-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for Japan, while the historical emissions-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for the FSU. A larger burden share leads to a greater GDP loss.

Climate change and wildfires

Science.gov (United States)

William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

2013-01-01

Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

PONDS AND CLIMATE, THE GEOGRAPHICAL ASCENDANCY RELATIONSHIP (“LA BRENNE” CASE STUDY, FRANCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laurent TOUCHART

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Ponds and climate, the geographical ascendancy relationship (“La Brenne” case study, France. The climate influences markedly the volume of water ponds and lakes. However, the role and the influence of "small" water areas, and areas of ponds on the local climate remain poorly understood. Scientific studies for the Great Lakes have been made. Moreover, scientific studies on «small» water areas and areas of ponds do not exist until today. A first approach to study the area of ponds of “La Brenne” (Central Region, France was performed. The monthly climate data from some meteorological stations, with the reference station of “Issoudun”, located away from areas of ponds, were the basis of our analysis. The study focuses on the most representative climatic parameters. These are the temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. This first approach is used to distinguish and clarify the most important cases and relevant parameters in order to achieve a typology of criteria. Our results will be used for further study and quantify the real influence of "small" water areas and areas of ponds on the elements of the local climate.

Treeline dynamics with climate change at Central Nepal Himalaya

Science.gov (United States)

Gaire, N. P.; Koirala, M.; Bhuju, D. R.; Borgaonkar, H. P.

2013-10-01

Global climate change has multidimensional impacts with several biological fingerprints, and treeline shifting in tandem with climate change is a widely observed phenomenon in various parts of the world. In Nepal several impacts of climate change on physical environments have been observed. However, studies on the biological impacts are lacking. This dendrochronological study was carried out at the treeline ecotone (3750-4003 m a.s.l.) in the Kalchuman Lake (Kal Tal) area of the Manaslu Conservation Area in central Nepal Himalaya with the aim to study the dynamic impact of climate change at the treeline. The study provides an insight into regeneration and treeline dynamics over the past 200 yr. Two belt transect plots (size: 20 m wide, >250 m long) were laid covering forest line, treeline as well as tree species Abies spectabilis and Betula utilis was done and their tree-cores were collected. Stand character and age distribution revealed an occurrence of more matured B. utilis (max. age 198 yr old) compared to A. spectabilis (max. age 160 yr). A. spectabilis contained an overwhelmingly high population (89%) of younger plants (plant density as well as upward shifting in the studied treeline ecotones was observed. Thus, two species presented species-specific responses to climate change and much wider differences anticipated in their population status as climate continues to cha spectabilis correlated negatively with the mean monthly temperature of May-August of the current year and with September of the previous year. The regeneration of A. spectabilis, on the other hand, was positively related with May-August precipitation and January-April temperature of the current year. The reconstructed average summer temperature (May-August) using tree ring data revealed alternate period of cool and warm period with warming in the 2nd half of the 20th century. Further palynological and geochronological studies of sediments of the Kalchuman Lake would advance our understanding

Climate Ocean Modeling on Parallel Computers

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, P.; Cheng, B. N.; Chao, Y.

1998-01-01

Ocean modeling plays an important role in both understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting future climate change. However, modeling the ocean circulation at various spatial and temporal scales is a very challenging computational task.

Climate change and marine life

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

2012-01-01

A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

The influence of current and future climate on the spatial distribution of coccidioidomycosis in the southwestern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Gorris, M. E.; Hoffman, F. M.; Zender, C. S.; Treseder, K. K.; Randerson, J. T.

2017-12-01

Coccidioidomycosis, otherwise known as valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern U.S. The magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of valley fever incidence is shaped by variations in regional climate. As such, climate change may cause new communities to become at risk for contracting this disease. Humans contract valley fever by inhaling fungal spores of the genus Coccidioides. Coccidioides grow in the soil as a mycelium, and when stressed, autolyze into spores 2-5 µm in length. Spores can become airborne from any natural or anthropogenic soil disturbance, which can be exacerbated by dry soil conditions. Understanding the relationship between climate and valley fever incidence is critical for future disease risk management. We explored several multivariate techniques to create a predictive model of county-level valley fever incidence throughout the southwestern U.S., including Arizona, California, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah. We incorporated surface air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, surface dust concentrations, leaf area index, and the amount of agricultural land, all of which influence valley fever incidence. A log-linear regression model that incorporated surface air temperature, soil moisture, surface dust concentration, and the amount of agricultural land explained 34% of the county-level variance in annual average valley fever incidence. We used this model to predict valley fever incidence for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 using simulation output from the Community Earth System Model. In our analysis, we describe how regional hotspots of valley fever incidence may shift with sustained warming and drying in the southwestern U.S. Our predictive model of valley fever incidence may help mitigate future health impacts of valley fever by informing health officials and policy makers of the climate conditions suitable for disease outbreak.

America's Climate Choices: Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Liverman, D. M.; McConnell, M. C.; Raven, P.

2010-12-01

At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study examines information needs and recommends ways the federal government can better inform responses by enhancing climate change and greenhouse gas information and reporting systems and by improving climate communication and education. Demand for better information to support climate-related decisions has grown rapidly as people, organizations, and governments have moved ahead with plans and actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of climate change. To meet this demand, good information systems and services are needed. Without such systems, decision makers cannot evaluate whether particular policies and actions are achieving their goals or should be modified. Although the many non-federal efforts to reduce emissions and/or adapt to future climate changes carry considerable potential to reduce risks related to climate change, there is currently no comprehensive way to assess the effectiveness of those efforts. In addition, the diverse climate change responses to date have resulted in a patchwork of regional, state, and local policies that has prompted many state and business leaders to call for the development of a more predictable and coherent policy environment at the federal level. This report demonstrates that the nation lacks comprehensive, robust, and credible information and reporting systems to inform climate choices and evaluate their effectiveness. This report also argues that decision makers can benefit from a systematic and iterative framework for responding to climate change, in which decisions and policies can be revised in light of new information and experience and that improved information and reporting systems allow for ongoing evaluation of responses to climate risks. The

Greenland climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle

2012-01-01

Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

Fisheries and climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brander, Keith

2009-01-01

Fish stocks and the fisheries based on them have always experienced variability due to climate. Changes in temperature, salinity, winds, ocean currents, oxygen, and other factors affect their distribution, growth, survival, and recruitment. Examples of such effects are given for several regions...... of the oceans and the processes are described. Poleward distribution shifts have occurred since the 1960s and can be attributed to the effects of anthropogenic climate change with a high degree of confidence. In addition to climate effects, fisheries are subjected to other anthropogenic stresses, including high...... fishing mortality, loss of habitat, pollution, and introduction of alien species. These interact and may reduce the resilience of exploited stocks, although climate change may also increase productivity in some cases. Fisheries production depends on primary production, but to date we have low confidence...

Climate change in Germany. Vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors; Klimawandel in Deutschland. Vulnerabilitaet und Anpassungsstrategien klimasensitiver Systeme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zebisch, Marc; Grothmann, Torsten; Schroeter, Dagmar; Hasse, Clemens; Fritsch, Uta; Cramer, Wolfgang [Potsdam Institut fuer Klimaforschung, Potsdam (Germany)

2005-08-15

The objectives of this study were the following: documentation of existing knowledge on global change (and particularly climate change) in Germany and to analysis of its current and potential future impacts on seven climate-sensitive sectors (water management, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity/nature conservation, health, tourism and transport).; the evaluation of the present degree of adaptation and the adaptive capacity of these climate-sensitive sectors to global change; conclusions on the vulnerability to global change of sectors and regions in Germany by considering potential global change impacts, degrees of adaptation and adaptive capacity; and the discussion of the results of the study with decision-makers from government, administration, economy and society, in order to develop a basis for the development of strategies of adaptation to global change in Germany.

School Climate, Family Structure, and Academic Achievement: A Study of Moderation Effects

Science.gov (United States)

O'Malley, Meagan; Voight, Adam; Renshaw, Tyler L.; Eklund, Katie

2015-01-01

School climate has been lauded for its relationship to a host of desirable academic, behavioral, and social-emotional outcomes for youth. The present study tested the hypothesis that school climate counteracts youths' home-school risk by examining the moderating effects of students' school climate perceptions on the relationship between family…

Climate Change Accuracy: Requirements and Economic Value

Science.gov (United States)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Lukashin, C.; Thome, K. J.; Baize, R. R.

2014-12-01

Higher than normal accuracy is required to rigorously observe decadal climate change. But what level is needed? How can this be quantified? This presentation will summarize a new more rigorous and quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations (Wielicki et al., 2013, BAMS). Most current global satellite observations cannot meet this accuracy level. A proposed new satellite mission to resolve this challenge is CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory). CLARREO is designed to achieve advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra (Wielicki et al., Oct. 2013 BAMS). The CLARREO spectrometers are designed to serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and to greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar passive satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, SPOT, etc). Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance as part of a rigorous and complete climate observing system. The study concludes that the economic value is $12 Trillion U.S. dollars in Net Present Value for a nominal discount rate of 3% (Cooke et al. 2013, J. Env. Sys. Dec.). A brief summary of these two studies and their implications for the future of climate science will be presented.