WorldWideScience

Sample records for current climate studies

  1. Remote Sensing Studies Of The Current Martian Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, F. W.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Calcutt, S. B.; Moroz, V. I.

    A systematic and detailed experimental study of the Martian atmosphere remains to be carried out, despite many decades of intense interest in the nature of the Martian climate system, its interactions, variability and long-term stability. Such a study is planned by the 2005 Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, using limb-scanning infrared radiometric techniques similar to those used to study trace species in the terrestrial stratosphere. For Mars, the objectives are temperature, humidity, dust and condensate abundances with high vertical resolution and global coverage in the 0 to 80 km height range. The paper will discuss the experiment and its methodology and expectations for the results.

  2. Regional Wave Climates along Eastern Boundary Currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semedo, Alvaro; Soares, Pedro

    2016-04-01

    Two types of wind-generated gravity waves coexist at the ocean surface: wind sea and swell. Wind sea waves are waves under growing process. These young growing waves receive energy from the overlaying wind and are strongly coupled to the local wind field. Waves that propagate away from their generation area and no longer receive energy input from the local wind are called swell. Swell waves can travel long distances across entire ocean basins. A qualitative study of the ocean waves from a locally vs. remotely generation perspective is important, since the air sea interaction processes is strongly modulated by waves and vary accordingly to the prevalence of wind sea or swell waves in the area. A detailed climatology of wind sea and swell waves along eastern boundary currents (EBC; California Current, Canary Current, in the Northern Hemisphere, and Humboldt Current, Benguela Current, and Western Australia Current, in the Southern Hemisphere), based on the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-Interim reanalysis will be presented. The wind regime along EBC varies significantly from winter to summer. The high summer wind speeds along EBC generate higher locally generated wind sea waves, whereas lower winter wind speeds in these areas, along with stronger winter extratropical storms far away, lead to a predominance of swell waves there. In summer, the coast parallel winds also interact with coastal headlands, increasing the wind speed through a process called "expansion fan", which leads to an increase in the height of locally generated waves downwind of capes and points. Hence the spatial patterns of the wind sea or swell regional wave fields are shown to be different from the open ocean along EBC, due to coastal geometry and fetch dimensions. Swell waves will be shown to be considerably more prevalent and to carry more energy in winter along EBC, while in summer locally generated wind sea waves are either more comparable to swell waves or

  3. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    An increased uptake of alternative low or non-CO2 emitting energy sources is one of the key priorities for policy makers to mitigate the effects of environmental change. Relatively little work has been undertaken on the mitigation potential of Ground Coupled Heat Pumps (GCHPs) despite the fact that a GCHP could significantly reduce CO2 emissions from heating systems. It is predicted that under climate change the most probable scenario is for UK temperatures to increase and for winter rainfall to become more abundant; the latter is likely to cause a general rise in groundwater levels. Summer rainfall may reduce considerably, while vegetation type and density may change. Furthermore, recent studies underline the likelihood of an increase in the number of heat waves. Under such a scenario, GCHPs will increasingly be used for cooling as well as heating. These factors will affect long-term performance of horizontal GCHP systems and hence their economic viability and mitigation potential during their life span ( 50 years). The seasonal temperature differences encountered in soil are harnessed by GCHPs to provide heating in the winter and cooling in the summer. The performance of a GCHP system will depend on technical factors (heat exchanger (HE) type, length, depth, and spacing of pipes), but also it will be determined to a large extent by interactions between the below-ground parts of the system and the environment (atmospheric conditions, vegetation and soil characteristics). Depending on the balance between extraction and rejection of heat from and to the ground, the soil temperature in the neighbourhood of the HE may fall or rise. The GROMIT project (GROund coupled heat pumps MITigation potential), funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (UK), is a multi-disciplinary research project, in collaboration with EarthEnergy Ltd., which aims to quantify the CO2 mitigation potential of horizontal GCHPs. It considers changing environmental conditions and combines

  4. Climate change impacts in Iran: assessing our current knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, Jaber; Malekian, Arash; Khalili, Ali

    2018-02-01

    During recent years, various studies have focused on investigating the direct and indirect impacts of climate changes in Iran while the noteworthy fact is the achievement gained by these researches. Furthermore, what should be taken into consideration is whether these studies have been able to provide appropriate opportunities for improving further studies in this particular field or not. To address these questions, this study systematically reviewed and summarized the current available literature (n = 150) regarding the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Iran to assess our current state of knowledge. The results revealed that while all studies discuss the probable changes in temperature and precipitation over the next decades, serious contradictions could be seen in their results; also, the general pattern of changes was different in most of the cases. This matter may have a significant effect on public beliefs in climate change, which can be a serious warning for the activists in this realm.

  5. CITYZEN climate impact studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schutz, Martin (ed.)

    2011-07-01

    We have estimated the impact of climate change on the chemical composition of the troposphere due to changes in climate from current climate (2000-2010) looking 40 years ahead (2040-2050). The climate projection has been made by the ECHAM5 model and was followed by chemistry-transport modelling using a global model, Oslo CTM2 (Isaksen et al., 2005; Srvde et al., 2008), and a regional model, EMEP. In this report we focus on carbon monoxide (CO) and surface ozone (O3) which are measures of primary and secondary air pollution. In parallel we have estimated the change in the same air pollutants resulting from changes in emissions over the same time period. (orig.)

  6. Indoor climate and air quality . Review of current and future topics in the field of ISB study group 10

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höppe, P.; Martinac, Ivo

    In industrialized countries about 90% of the time is spent indoors. The ambient parameters affecting indoor thermal comfort are air temperature and humidity, air velocity, and radiant heat exchange within an enclosure. In assessing the thermal environment, one needs to consider all ambient parameters, the insulating properties of the occupants' clothing, and the activity level of the occupants by means of heat balance models of the human body. Apart from thermal parameters, air quality (measured and perceived) is also of importance for well-being and health in indoor environments. Pollutant levels are influenced by both outdoor concentrations and by indoor emissions. Indoor levels can thus be lower (e.g. in the case of ozone and SO2) or higher (e.g. for CO2 and formaldehyde) than outdoor levels. Emissions from cooking play an important role, especially in developing countries. The humidity of the ambient air has a wide range of effects on the energy and water balance of the body as well as on elasticity, air quality perception, build-up of electrostatic charge and the formation or mould. However, its effect on the indoor climate is often overestimated. While air-handling systems are commonly used for achieving comfortable indoor climates, their use has also been linked to a variety of problems, some of which have received attention within the context of ''sick building syndrome''.

  7. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2015-08-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

  8. Comments on Current Space Systems Observing the Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, L. A.

    2016-07-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which was established in 1992, has been effective in specifying the observations needed for climate studies, and advocating that these observations be made. As a result, there are essential climate variables being observed, particularly from space, and these have formed the basis for our ever-improving models of how the Earth system functions and the human impact on it. We cannot conclude, however, that the current observing system in space is adequate. Climate change is accelerating, and we need to ensure that our observations capture, with completeness and with proper resolution and cadence, the most important changes. Perhaps of most significance, we need to use observations from space to guide the mitigation and adaptation strategies on which at last our civilization seems prepared to embark. And we need to use our observations to educate particularly policy makers on the reality of climate change, so that none deny the need to act. COSPAR is determined to play its part in highlighting the need to strengthen the climate observing system and notably its research component. This is being accomplished through events like the present roundtable, through the work of its Scientific Commission A, its Task Group on GEO (where COSPAR is serving as a member of its Program Board), and by promoting among space agencies and policy-makers the recently released scientific roadmap on Integrated Earth System Science for the period 2016-2025.

  9. Current Research Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Success Home > Explore Research > Current Research Studies Current Research Studies Email Print + Share The Crohn’s & Colitis Foundation ... conducted online. Learn more about IBD Partners. Clinical Research Alliance The Clinical Research Alliance is a network ...

  10. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  11. Climate and current anthropogenic impacts on fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith

    2013-01-01

    . As with terrestrial systems, it will not be easy to find acceptable balances between food production and conservation objectives. Climate change imposes a new set of pressures on marine ecosystems; increasing temperature, reduced salinity in some enclosed seas and coastal areas, changing windfields and seasonality...... of research that will help us to adapt and on the development of practices and management that will insure against future change...

  12. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  13. Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugh, T. A. M.; Mueller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

  14. Climate change impacts in Northern Canada: Assessing our current knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gill, M.J.; Eamer, J. [Environment Canada, Environmental Conservation Branch, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Munier, A.; Ogden, A. [Yukon College, Northern Climate ExChange, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Duerden, F. [Ryerson University, School of Applied Geography, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hik, D. [Alberta Univ., Dept. of Biological Sciences, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Fox, S.; Riedlinger, D.; Thorpe, N. [GeoNorth Limited, Whitehorse, YT (Canada); Johnson, I.; Jensen, M. [Legend Seekers Anthropological Research, Whitehorse, YT (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    A research project by the Northern Climate ExChange at Yukon College, undertaken to bring together into one document all relevant information that will help facilitate the identification of priorities for climate change research, monitoring, technological development and policy development in Canada's North, is described. In addition to the report, project deliverables also include a database of climate change information sources and a database of northern climate change contacts. The review includes scientific, local and Traditional Knowledge sources relating to climate change about each of seventeen natural and human systems (e.g. boreal forests, community health, mining, etc.), synthesized into a table for each system, with projected environmental changes crossed in matrix format with system components. Each cross-relationship was given a ranking; supporting information was included, based on the current state of knowledge of that relationship. In general, current information concerning northern systems, predicted climate changes and the impacts of those changes on northern systems is poor. However, much information does exist and the gap analysis revealed a number of general patterns relating to this information. Clearly, more research is required throughout northern Canada, but in particular, in the eastern Arctic, to provide a greater understanding of the implications of climate changes across the North, and to aid in the development of finer-scale, regional circulation models resulting in better predictive capacity of climate change and its impacts on northern areas.

  15. Drought Duration Biases in Current Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    Several droughts in the recent past are characterized by their increased duration and intensity. In particular, substantially prolonged droughts have brought major societal and economic losses in certain regions, yet climate change projections of such droughts in terms of duration is subject to large uncertainties. This study analyzes the biases of drought duration in state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Drought durations are defined as negative precipitation anomalies and evaluated with three observation-based datasets in the period of 1901-2010. Large spread in biases of GCMs is commonly found in all regions, with particular strong biases in North East Brazil, Africa, Northern Australia, Central America, Central and Northern Europe, Sahel and Asia. Also in most regions, the interquartile range of bias lies below 0, meaning that the GCMs tend to underestimate drought durations. Meanwhile in some regions such as Western South America, the Amazon, Sahel, West and South Africa, and Asia, considerable inconsistency among the three observation-based datasets were found. These results indicate substantial uncertainties and errors in current GCMs for simulating drought durations as well as a large spread in observation-based datasets, both of which are found to be particularly strong in those regions that are often considered to be hot spots of projected future drying. The underlying sources of these uncertainties need to be identified in further study and will be applied to constrain GCM-based drought projections under climate change.

  16. Current State of Climate Education in the United States: Are Graduate Students being Adequately Prepared to Address Climate Issues?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuster, E.; Fox, G.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is happening; scientists have already observed changes in sea level, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, and declining polar ice. The students of today are the leaders of tomorrow, and it is our duty to make sure they are well equipped and they understand the implications of climate change as part of their research and professional careers. Graduate students, in particular, are gaining valuable and necessary research, leadership, and critical thinking skills, but we need to ensure that they are receiving the appropriate climate education in their graduate training. Previous studies have primarily focused on capturing the K-12, college level, and general publics' knowledge of the climate system, concluding with recommendations on how to improve climate literacy in the classroom. While this is extremely important to study, very few studies have captured the current perception that graduate students hold regarding the amount of climate education being offered to them. This information is important to capture, as it can inform future curriculum development. We developed and distributed a nationwide survey (495 respondents) for graduate students to capture their perception on the level of climate system education being offered and their view on the importance of having climate education. We also investigated differences in the responses based on either geographic area or discipline. We compared how important graduate students felt it was to include climate education in their own discipline versus outside disciplines. The authors will discuss key findings from this ongoing research.

  17. Current Assessment and Future Outlook for Water Resources Considering Climate Change and a Population Burst: A Case Study of Ciliwung River, Jakarta City, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Kumar

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Modeling insecurity under future climate change and socio-economic development is indispensable for adaptive planning and sustainable management of water resources. This case study strives to assess the water quality and quantity status for both the present and the near future in the Ciliwung River basin inside the Jakarta Province under different scenarios using population growth with planned additional wastewater management infrastructure by 2030 as mentioned in the local master plan, and comparing the above conditions with the addition of the effects of climate change. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD, chemical oxygen demand (COD and nitrate (NO3, the three important indicators of aquatic ecosystem health, were simulated to assess river pollution. Simulation results suggest that water quality in year 2030 will further deteriorate compared to the base year 2000 due to population growth and climate change, even considering the planned wastewater management infrastructure. The magnitude of impact from population growth is far greater than that from climate change. Simulated values of NO3, BOD and COD ranged from 6.07 to 13.34 mg/L, 7.65 to 11.41 mg/L, and 20.16 to 51.01 mg/L, respectively. Almost all of the water quality parameters exceeded the safe limit suitable for a healthy aquatic system, especially for the year 2030. The situation of water quality is worse for the downstream sampling location because of the cumulative effect of transport of untreated pollutants coming from upstream, as well as local dumping. This result will be useful for local policy makers and stakeholders involved in the water sector to formulate strategic and adaptive policies and plan for the future. One of the potential policy interventions is to implement a national integrated sewerage and septage management program on a priority basis, considering various factors like population density and growth, and global changes for both short- and long-term measures.

  18. Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tölle, Merja H.; Schefczyk, Lukas; Gutjahr, Oliver

    2017-11-01

    A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

  19. Little auks buffer the impact of current Arctic climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grémillet, David; Welcker, Jorg; Karnovsky, Nina J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate models predict a multi-degree warming of the North Atlantic in the 21st century. A research priority is to understand the impact of such changes upon marine organisms. With 40-80 million individuals, planktivorous little auks (Alle alle) are an essential component of pelagic food webs...... in this region that are potentially highly susceptible to climatic effects. Using an integrative study of their behaviour, physiology and fitness at three study sites, we evaluated the impact of ocean warming on little auks across the Greenland Sea in 2005-2007. Contrary to our hypothesis, the birds responded...... to a wide range of sea surface temperatures via plasticity of their foraging behaviour, allowing them to maintain their fitness levels unchanged. Predicted effects of climate change are significantly attenuated by such plasticity, confounding attempts to forecast future impacts of climate change by envelope...

  20. Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

  1. Will current probabilistic climate change information, as such, improve adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, A.; Smith, L. A.

    2012-04-01

    Probabilistic climate scenarios are currently being provided to end users, to employ as probabilities in adaptation decision making, with the explicit suggestion that they quantify the impacts of climate change relevant to a variety of sectors. These "probabilities" are, however, rather sensitive to the assumptions in, and the structure of the modelling approaches used to generate them. It is often argued that stakeholders require probabilistic climate change information to adequately evaluate and plan adaptation pathways. On the other hand, some circumstantial evidence suggests that on the ground decision making rarely uses well defined probability distributions of climate change as inputs. Nevertheless it is within this context of probability distributions of climate change that we discuss possible drawbacks of supplying information that, while presented as robust and decision relevant, , is in fact unlikely to be so due to known flaws both in the underlying models and in the methodology used to "account for" those known flaws. How might one use a probability forecast that is expected to change in the future, not due to a refinement in our information but due to fundamental flaws in its construction? What then are the alternatives? While the answer will depend on the context of the problem at hand, a good approach will be strongly informed by the timescale of the given planning decision, and the consideration of all the non-climatic factors that have to be taken into account in the corresponding risk assessment. Using a water resources system as an example, we illustrate an alternative approach to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today.

  2. Climate change studies in Estonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallaste, Tiit; Kuldna, Piret

    1998-01-01

    The present collection of papers was compiled on the basis of research papers written by Estonian scientists during the United Nations Environment Programme and Global Environment Facility initiated climate change programme Country Case Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Assessments. The Estonian country case study was finally approved by UNEP/GEF in February 1996, practical work started in September. The priorities for Estonia in the study of global climate change impacts and adaptation have been in the following areas of interest: agriculture, water resources, forestry, the Baltic Sea and Estonian coast, also historical climate and socioeconomic background together with the biggest producer of greenhouse gases, the energy sector. Those areas have been studied more carefully during the one and half year period of the project

  3. The current investment climate for midstream gas processing assets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brouwer, R.J.

    1999-01-01

    Topics discussed in this paper dealing with the current investment climate for midstream gas processing assets include: (1) strategic reasons to retain or divest midstream assets, (2) available options for midstream asset divestment, (3) midstream market fundamentals, and (4) financial performance of midstream companies. There are some 700 gas plants in Alberta at present, of which about 20 per cent are owned by midstream companies . About one half of the plants are smaller than 12.5 MMCFD which represent inefficient use of resources; a clear indication that there are substantial opportunities for consolidation. 1 tab., 4 figs

  4. Vertical climatic belts in the Tatra Mountains in the light of current climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Łupikasza, Ewa; Szypuła, Bartłomiej

    2018-04-01

    The paper discusses temporal changes in the configuration of vertical climatic belts in the Tatra Mountains as a result of current climate change. Meteorological stations are scarce in the Tatra Mountains; therefore, we modelled decadal air temperatures using existing data from 20 meteorological stations and the relationship between air temperature and altitude. Air temperature was modelled separately for northern and southern slopes and for convex and concave landforms. Decadal air temperatures were additionally used to delineate five climatic belts previously distinguished by Hess on the basis of threshold values of annual air temperature. The spatial extent and location of the borderline isotherms of 6, 4, 2, 0, and - 2 °C for four decades, including 1951-1960, 1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010, were compared. Significant warming in the Tatra Mountains, uniform in the vertical profile, started at the beginning of the 1980s and led to clear changes in the extent and location of the vertical climatic belts delineated on the basis of annual air temperature. The uphill shift of the borderline isotherms was more prominent on southern than on northern slopes. The highest rate of changes in the extent of the climatic belts was found above the isotherm of 0 °C (moderately cold and cold belts). The cold belt dramatically diminished in extent over the research period.

  5. Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

    2014-12-01

    Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy

  6. Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: Current UV Index Forecast Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Service NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team Disclaimer

  7. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level. The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate factor (the ratio between the future and the current design level) which is assumed to increase in time. This implies increasing costs of flooding in the future for many places in the world. The optimal adaptation level is found for immediate as well as for delayed adaptation. In these cases, the optimum is determined by considering the net present value of the incurred costs during a sufficiently long time-span. Immediate as well as delayed adaptation is considered.

  8. Environmental impacts of barley cultivation under current and future climatic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dijkman, Teunis Johannes; Birkved, Morten; Saxe, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    for the increased impacts. This finding was confirmed by the sensitivity analysis. Because this study focused solely on the impacts of climate change, technological improvements and political measures to reduce impacts in the 2050 scenario are not taken into account. Options to mitigate the environmental impacts......The purpose of this work is to compare the environmental impacts of spring barley cultivation in Denmark under current (year 2010) and future (year 2050) climatic conditions. Therefore, a Life Cycle Assessment was carried out for the production of 1 kg of spring barley in Denmark, at farm gate....... Both under 2010 and 2050 climatic conditions, four subscenarios were modelled, based on a combination of two soil types and two climates. Included in the assessment were seed production, soil preparation, fertilization, pesticide application, and harvest. When processes in the life cycle resulted in co...

  9. Making or breaking climate targets : The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao, Shilpa; Arroyo Currás, Tabaré; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; P. van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition - the EU or the EU and China - embarks on immediate ambitious

  10. Effects of Climate on the Zooplankton of the California Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavaniegos, B. E.

    2007-05-01

    Almost six decades of sampling of the California Current system, carried out by the CalCOFI program (California Cooperative Fisheries Investigation) complemented by a decade of observations from the IMECOCAL program (Investigaciones Mexicanas de la Corriente de California), have revealed changing patterns in zooplankton abundances, species composition, and distributions over interannual through multidecadal time scales. Interannual changes associated with ENSO variability are manifested as strong but transitory perturbations in the mean annual cycle in seasonal abundances (and distributions) of particular species. An investigation of longer- term change, limited to the region off southern California, shows a persistent decline in zooplankton volumes (a proxy for overall biomass of macrozooplankton) between 1977 and 1998 that is considered to be a response to the well documented shift in basin-scale climate forcing that occurred in 1976-77. Further examination of this decline in zooplankton volumes indicates that it was due principally to the disappearance of several salp species after 1977. Other species and functional groups did not decline after the change in climate regime, while some species have followed persistent secular trends that appear to be associated more with the phenomenon of long-term global warming. Differences in the regional responses to climate change throughout the California Current system have also been observed recently in the spatial distribution of zooplankton biomass and changes in latitudinal ranges of certain species. For example, zooplankton biomass in the Baja California region show typical values for the 1997-98 El Niño that were followed by a decrease during the sharp transition to the cool La Niña conditions in 1999. This contrasts with the nearby region off southern California that was characterized by reduced biomass during the El Niño period and the subsequent recovery during the La Niña. Another regional contrast in

  11. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 1979-01-20 to 1984-04-26 (NODC Accession 8500007)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean from January 20, 1979 to April 26, 1984. Data were submitted by Pacific...

  12. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 1986-05-28 to 1987-05-11 (NODC Accession 8900168)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean from 28 May 1986 to 01 May 1983. Data were submitted by Pacific Marine...

  13. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 1979-01-20 to 1984-04-01 (NODC Accession 8700077)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean from January 20, 1979 to April 1, 1984. Data were submitted by Pacific Marine...

  14. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the South Pacific Ocean as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 1981-11-21 to 1983-11-20 (NODC Accession 8500258)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the South Pacific Ocean from November 21, 1981 to November 20, 1983. Data were submitted by...

  15. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 1990-04-30 to 1991-05-15 (NODC Accession 9400005)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the Pacific Ocean from April 30, 1990 to May 15, 1991. Data were submitted by Pacific Marine...

  16. Upgrades, Current Capabilities and Near-Term Plans of the NASA ARC Mars Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, Melinda April; Haberle, Robert M.; Schaeffer, James R.

    2012-01-01

    We describe and review recent upgrades to the ARC Mars climate modeling framework, in particular, with regards to physical parameterizations (i.e., testing, implementation, modularization and documentation); the current climate modeling capabilities; selected research topics regarding current/past climates; and then, our near-term plans related to the NASA ARC Mars general circulation modeling (GCM) project.

  17. A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON SPECTRAL ENERGETICS BETWEEN THE NCEP reanalysisII in current climate AND MODEL ECHAM5 in future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aranha, A. F.; Veiga, J. P.

    2013-12-01

    Saltzman (1957) starting Lorenz Cycle (1955) derived a set of equations that show the energy contained in the basic state and the disturbed atmosphere, decomposing in various fields disturbance wave type, so as to quantify and analyze the energy of these disorders according to their number or wavelength. Based on the methodology Saltzman, this paper aims a comparative study between the energy of the disturbed state between the NCEP reanalysis-II for the current weather conditions and model ECHAM5 scenarios for future conditions of increased concentration of greenhouse gases (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85), considering the terms of the generation of available potential energy to nth wave due to diabatic heating, represented by (Gn), the potential energy of nth wave (Pn) and kinetic energy of nth wave (Kn), as well as the conversion of energy between kinetic energy and potential energy nth wave of nth wave, given by (Cn). Two data sets were used in the calculation of the aforementioned terms. For the data set of NCEP and ECHAM5 were used variables, temperature (T), orthogonal wind components (u, v, w) and geopotential height (L), considering daily shared values on a regular grid with spatial resolutions of 2,5 x 2.5 and 1.875 x 1.875 graus, distributed on 12 and 15 levels of pressure (1000.0, 925.0, 850.0, 700.0, 600.0, 500.0, 400.0, 300.0, 250.0, 200.0, 150.0, 100.0 hPa), (1000.0, 850.0, 700.0, 500.0, 250.0, 150.0, 100.0, 70.0, 50.0, 30.0, 10.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.1 hPa) for the period of 1979-1999 and 2090-2100, respectively. The results show that most of the kinetic energy of disturbance to nth waves is concentrated in the first 15 wave numbers, both for the weather-NCEP II as to ECHAM5, having more significant increase in the profile and having a RCP85 energy cascade. This increase in kinetic energy was expected due to the increased energy in the system. For Pn, increasing the potential energy is also expected in view of the increased diabatic heating, but the energy jump

  18. Climate Change Vulnerability and Resilience: Current Status and Trends for Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibarraran , Maria E.; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-12-30

    Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity towards new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent studies (Moss et al. 2000, Brenkert and Malone 2005, Malone and Brenket 2008, Ibarrarán et al. 2007), the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity and environmental capacity.

  19. Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes

    KAUST Repository

    Wilson, S. K.; Adjeroud, M.; Bellwood, D. R.; Berumen, Michael L.; Booth, D.; Bozec, Y.-M.; Chabanet, P.; Cheal, A.; Cinner, J.; Depczynski, M.; Feary, D. A.; Gagliano, M.; Graham, N. A. J.; Halford, A. R.; Halpern, B. S.; Harborne, A. R.; Hoey, A. S.; Holbrook, S. J.; Jones, G. P.; Kulbiki, M.; Letourneur, Y.; De Loma, T. L.; McClanahan, T.; McCormick, M. I.; Meekan, M. G.; Mumby, P. J.; Munday, P. L.; Ohman, M. C.; Pratchett, M. S.; Riegl, B.; Sano, M.; Schmitt, R. J.; Syms, C.

    2010-01-01

    Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef

  20. Experimental study of neoclassical currents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarnstorff, M.C.; Prager, S.C.

    1985-05-01

    A detailed experimental study is presented of the bootstrap and Pfirsch-Schlueter currents that are predicted by neoclassical transport theory. In a toroidal octupole, on magnetic surfaces within the separatrix, the observed parallel plasma currents are in excellent quantitative agreement with neoclassical theory with regard to the spatial structure (along a magnetic surface), collisionality dependence and toroidal magnetic field dependence. On magnetic surfaces outside the separatrix, the ion portion of the parallel current is in agreement with neoclassical theory but the electron parallel current is observed to obtain a unidirectional component which deviates from and exceeds the theoretical prediction

  1. Review on Climate Control Chamber studies in studying plant environment interaction under climate change scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Geethalakshmi, V.; Bhuvaneshwari, K.; Lakshmanan, A.

    2011-01-01

    This Technical brief summarizes some of the studies conducted on rice using a climate control chamber and outlines the studies that will be undertaken in the Climate Control Chamber facility that has been established at the Agro Climate Research Center at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore. In recent years a numbers of technologies have been developed to study the impact of climate change on agricultural systems. Crop response to climate change could be studied by using a climate ...

  2. US Drought-Heat Wave Relationships in Past Versus Current Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Eischeid, J.; Liu, Z.

    2017-12-01

    This study explores the relationship between droughts and heat waves over various regions of the contiguous United States that are distinguished by so-called energy-limited versus water-limited climatologies. We first examine the regional sensitivity of heat waves to soil moisture variability under 19th century climate conditions, and then compare to sensitivities under current climate that has been subjected to human-induced change. Our approach involves application of the conditional statistical framework of vine copula. Vine copula is known for its flexibility in reproducing various dependence structures exhibited by climate variables. Here we highlight its feature for evaluating the importance of conditional relationships between variables and processes that capture underlying physical factors involved in their interdependence during drought/heat waves. Of particular interest is identifying changes in coupling strength between heat waves and land surface conditions that may yield more extreme events as a result of land surface feedbacks. We diagnose two equilibrium experiments a coupled climate model (CESM1), one subjected to Year-1850 external forcing and the other to Year-2000 radiative forcing. We calculate joint heat wave/drought relationships for each climate state, and also calculate their change as a result of external radiative forcing changes across this 150-yr period. Our results reveal no material change in the dependency between heat waves and droughts, aside from small increases in coupling strength over the Great Plains. Overall, hot U.S. summer droughts of 1850-vintage do not become hotter in the current climate -- aside from the warming contribution of long-term climate change, in CESM1. The detectability of changes in hotter droughts as a consequence of anthropogenic forced changes in this single effect, i.e. coupling strength between soil moisture and hot summer temperature, is judged to be low at this time.

  3. Climate change and food security in Tanzania: analysis of current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A review of literature was conducted in order to identify knowledge gaps in climate change and food security research in Tanzania. The review focused on published literature covering the past 20 years addressing climate change effects on various components of the food security. The review of literature reveals, among ...

  4. Assessing Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    George H. Mitri; Mireille G. Jazi; David McWethy

    2015-01-01

    The increasing occurrence and extent of large-scale wildfires in the Mediterranean have been linked to extended periods of warm and dry weather. We set out to assess Lebanon's wildfire potential in association with current and future climatic conditions. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was the primary climate variable used in our evaluation of climate/fire...

  5. Dust Composition in Climate Models: Current Status and Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez García-Pando, C.; Miller, R. L.; Perlwitz, J. P.; Kok, J. F.; Scanza, R.; Mahowald, N. M.

    2015-12-01

    Mineral dust created by wind erosion of soil particles is the dominant aerosol by mass in the atmosphere. It exerts significant effects on radiative fluxes, clouds, ocean biogeochemistry, and human health. Models that predict the lifecycle of mineral dust aerosols generally assume a globally uniform mineral composition. However, this simplification limits our understanding of the role of dust in the Earth system, since the effects of dust strongly depend on the particles' physical and chemical properties, which vary with their mineral composition. Hence, not only a detailed understanding of the processes determining the dust emission flux is needed, but also information about its size dependent mineral composition. Determining the mineral composition of dust aerosols is complicated. The largest uncertainty derives from the current atlases of soil mineral composition. These atlases provide global estimates of soil mineral fractions, but they are based upon massive extrapolation of a limited number of soil samples assuming that mineral composition is related to soil type. This disregards the potentially large variability of soil properties within each defined soil type. In addition, the analysis of these soil samples is based on wet sieving, a technique that breaks the aggregates found in the undisturbed parent soil. During wind erosion, these aggregates are subject to partial fragmentation, which generates differences on the size distribution and composition between the undisturbed parent soil and the emitted dust aerosols. We review recent progress on the representation of the mineral and chemical composition of dust in climate models. We discuss extensions of brittle fragmentation theory to prescribe the emitted size-resolved dust composition, and we identify key processes and uncertainties based upon model simulations and an unprecedented compilation of observations.

  6. Climate Change and Food Security in Tanzania: Analysis of Current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Food systems in Tanzania are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability due to poor adaptive capacity of ... available GCMs and downscaling techniques ... water for hydroelectric power generation ... for farm-level decision making.

  7. Copenhagen Climate Change Conference: The Current Situation and the Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broughton, Emma

    2010-01-01

    The Copenhagen climate change conference has failed to meet expectations but has also led to a shift in the structure of multilateral negotiations on climate change. States have reclaimed negotiations, while the UN-centred structure has been weakened. Relations between developed and emerging countries have shifted, with the latter influence growing. There has also been an increased participation of civil-society actors (NGOs) in the debate. A new negotiation structure is emerging but it faces the difficult challenge of avoiding fragmentation

  8. GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL:A COMPREHENSIVE TOOL IN CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT STUDIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There is growing concern, how and to what extent future changes in climate will affect human society and natural environments. Continuous emissions of Green House Gasses (GHGs at or above current rates will cause further warming. This, in turn, may modify global climate system during 21st century that very likely would have larger impacts than those observed during 20th century. At present, Global Climate Models (GCMs are only the most reliable tools available for studying behaviour of the climate system. This paper presents a comprehensive review of GCMs including their development and applications in climate change impacts studies. Following a discussion of the limitations of GCMs at regional and local scales, different approaches of downscaling are discussed in detail.

  9. High-current railgap studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Druce, R.; Gordon, L.; Hofer, W.; Wilson, M.

    1983-06-03

    Characteristics of a 40-kV, 750-kA, multichannel rail gap are presented. The gap is a three electrode, field-distortion-triggered design, with a total switch inductance of less than 10 nH. At maximum ratings, the gap typically switches 10 C per shot, at 700 kA, with a jitter of less than 2 ns. Image-converter streak photographs were used to study channel evolution and current division. Transient gas-pressure measurements were made to investigate the arc generated shocks and to detect single channel failure. Channel current sharing and simultaneity are described and their effects on the switch inductance and lifetime are discussed. Lifetime tests of the rail gap were performed. Degradation in the channel current-sharing and erosion measurements are discussed.

  10. High-current railgap studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druce, R.; Gordon, L.; Hofer, W.; Wilson, M.

    1983-06-01

    Characteristics of a 40-kV, 750-kA, multichannel rail gap are presented. The gap is a three electrode, field distortion triggered design, with a total switch inductance of less than 10 nH. At maximum ratings, the gap typically switches 10 C per shot, at 700 kA, with a jitter of less than 2 ns. Channel evolution and current division were studied on image converter streak photographs. Transient gas pressure measurements were made to investigate the arc generated shocks and to detect single channel failure. Channel current sharing and simultaneity are described and their effects on the switch inductance in the channel current sharing and erosion measurements are discussed.

  11. Assessing climate change impacts on wheat production (a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Valizadeh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the major challenges facing humanity in the future and effect of climate change has been detrimental to agricultural industry. The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of climate change on the maturity period, leaf area index (LAI, biomass and grain yield of wheat under future climate change for the Sistan and Baluchestan region in Iran. For this purpose, two general circulation models HadCM3 and IPCM4 under three scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 in three time periods 2020, 2050 and 2080 were used. LARS-WG model was used for simulating climatic parameters for each period and CERES-Wheat model was used to simulate wheat growth. The results of model evaluation showed that LARS-WG had appropriate prediction for climatic parameters and simulation of stochastic growing season in future climate change conditions for the studied region. Wheat growing season period in all scenarios of climate change was reduced compared to the current situation. Possible reasons were the increase in temperature rate and the accelerated growth stages of wheat. This reduction in B1 scenario was less than A1B and A2 scenarios. Maximum wheat LAI in all scenarios, except scenario A1B in 2050, is decreased compared to the current situation. Yield and biological yield of wheat in both general circulation models under all scenarios and all times were reduced in comparison with current conditions and the lowest reduction was related to B1 scenario. In general, the results showed that wheat production in the future will be affected by climate change and will decrease in the studied region. To reduce these risks, the impact of climate change mitigation strategies and management systems for crop adaptation to climate change conditions should be considered.

  12. Seasonal forecasts: communicating current climate variability in southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available seasonal time scale. Seasonal climate forecasts are defined as probabilistic predictions of how much rain is expected during the season and how warm or cool it will be, based primarily on the principle that the ocean (sea-surface temperatures) influences...

  13. Optimal adaptation to extreme rainfalls in current and future climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    . The value of the return period T that corresponds to the minimum of the sum of these costs will then be the optimal adaptation level. The change in climate, however, is expected to continue in the next century, which calls for expansion of the above model. The change can be expressed in terms of a climate......More intense and frequent rainfalls have increased the number of urban flooding events in recent years, prompting adaptation efforts. Economic optimization is considered an efficient tool to decide on the design level for adaptation. The costs associated with a flooding to the T-year level...... and the annual capital and operational costs of adapting to this level are described with log-linear relations. The total flooding costs are developed as the expected annual damage of flooding above the T-year level plus the annual capital and operational costs for ensuring no flooding below the T-year level...

  14. Using climate model simulations to assess the current climate risk to maize production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Chris; Pope, Edward; Thompson, Vikki; Lewis, Kirsty; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick

    2017-05-01

    The relationship between the climate and agricultural production is of considerable importance to global food security. However, there has been relatively little exploration of climate-variability related yield shocks. The short observational yield record does not adequately sample natural inter-annual variability thereby limiting the accuracy of probability assessments. Focusing on the United States and China, we present an innovative use of initialised ensemble climate simulations and a new agro-climatic indicator, to calculate the risk of severe water stress. Combined, these regions provide 60% of the world’s maize, and therefore, are crucial to global food security. To probe a greater range of inter-annual variability, the indicator is applied to 1400 simulations of the present day climate. The probability of severe water stress in the major maize producing regions is quantified, and in many regions an increased risk is found compared to calculations from observed historical data. Analysis suggests that the present day climate is also capable of producing unprecedented severe water stress conditions. Therefore, adaptation plans and policies based solely on observed events from the recent past may considerably under-estimate the true risk of climate-related maize shocks. The probability of a major impact event occurring simultaneously across both regions—a multi-breadbasket failure—is estimated to be up to 6% per decade and arises from a physically plausible climate state. This novel approach highlights the significance of climate impacts on crop production shocks and provides a platform for considerably improving food security assessments, in the present day or under a changing climate, as well as development of new risk based climate services.

  15. An Overview of Hydropower Reservoirs in Brazil: Current Situation, Future Perspectives and Impacts of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viviane de Souza Dias

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change, related to the greenhouse gases emission, impacts hydroelectric power generation mainly due to the increase in air temperature and changes in the precipitation patterns. As a consequence, it affects basin evapotranspiration process, runoff, sediment transport as well as evaporation of reservoirs. This study analysed the current and future Brazilian context of hydroelectric reservoirs and investigated the potential impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and possible mitigation adjustments, giving relevant examples from around the world. Moreover, it is key to consider other factors that influence the availability of water resources such as: (a upstream development of reservoirs, mainly the development of agricultural systems, which can contribute to increased water demand; (b changes in land use, which can have an impact on soil degradation and sediment transport. Hydroelectric dams are a possible alternative to mitigate the impacts of climate change considering that those impacts could generate the need of adaptive actions. The assessment of climate change impacts’ projections anticipates possible future scenarios and can assist in strategic planning together with the definition of adaptive operational policies.

  16. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  17. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  18. Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change Detection and Attribution Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santer, B. D.

    2017-12-01

    It has been claimed that the treatment and discussion of key uncertainties in climate science is "confined to hushed sidebar conversations at scientific conferences". This claim is demonstrably incorrect. Climate change detection and attribution studies routinely consider key uncertainties in observational climate data, as well as uncertainties in model-based estimates of natural variability and the "fingerprints" in response to different external forcings. The goal is to determine whether such uncertainties preclude robust identification of a human-caused climate change fingerprint. It is also routine to investigate the impact of applying different fingerprint identification strategies, and to assess how detection and attribution results are impacted by differences in the ability of current models to capture important aspects of present-day climate. The exploration of the uncertainties mentioned above will be illustrated using examples from detection and attribution studies with atmospheric temperature and moisture.

  19. Who is producing current without derailing the climate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huet, Sylvestre

    2014-01-01

    The author examines whether it would be possible to massively produce electricity without disturbing the climate. He outlines the rather high level of CO 2 emissions by the energy sector in the World, the continuous increase of electricity consumption (mainly due to China). He comments the level of energy transition in western countries (level of low-carbon or de-carbonated energy), and notices that some good performance are due to the levels of nuclear energy and hydroelectric energy. He discusses the challenges raised by a perspective of phasing out nuclear for different countries

  20. Current and historical climate signatures to deconstructed tree species richness pattern in South America - doi: 10.4025/actascibiolsci.v35i2.14202

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Paiva Silva

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to investigate the importance of present and historical climate as determinants of current species richness pattern of forestry trees in South America. The study predicted the distribution of 217 tree species using Maxent models, and calculated the potential species richness pattern, which was further deconstructed based on range sizes and modeled against current and historical climates predictors using Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR analyses. The current climate explains more of the wide-ranging species richness patterns than that of the narrow-ranging species, while the historical climate explained an equally small amount of variance for both narrow-and-wide ranging tree species richness patterns. The richness deconstruction based on range size revealed that the influences of current and historical climate hypotheses underlying patterns in South American tree species richness differ from those found in the Northern Hemisphere. Notably, the historical climate appears to be an important determinant of richness only in regions with marked climate changes and proved Pleistocenic refuges, while the current climate predicts the species richness across those Neotropical regions, with non-evident refuges in the Last Glacial Maximum. Thus, this study's analyses show that these climate hypotheses are complementary to explain the South American tree species richness. Keywords: climate changes, glacial refuges, water-energy availability, GWR analysis, spatial non-stationarity

  1. Climate wise case study compendium: Report 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-02-01

    This case study compendium is one of several Climate Wise tools available to help interested companies identify cost-effective options. Climate Wise, a private-public partnership program, is a key Federal initiative to return greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000.

  2. Wildfire Impacts Upon US Air Quality for Current and Future Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B. K.; Tao, I.; Avise, J. C.; Stavros, E. N.; Strand, T. T.; McKenzie, D.; Guenther, A. B.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Salathe, E. P.; Zhang, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Wildfires can have an important impact on regional air quality as they are large and intermittent sources of primary particulates, secondary aerosols, and ozone precursors. As part of an ongoing analysis on the effects of global change upon US air quality, we report results for current and future decade simulations of the inter-relationship among climate change, wildfires and air quality. The results are reported for the Northwest, Southwest, and Central Rockies regions of the US. Meteorological fields from the ECHAM5 global climate model for the IPCC A1B scenario were downscaled using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model to drive the MEGAN biogenic emissions model, a stochastic fire occurrence model, Fire Simulation Builder (FSB), and the CMAQ chemical transport model to predict ozone and aerosol concentrations. Simulations were completed for two nested domains covering most of the northern hemisphere from eastern Asia to North America at 220 km horizontal resolution (hemispheric domain) and covering the continental US at 36 km resolution (CONUS). Sensitivity studies were conducted for representative summer periods with fire occurrence generated from FSB within the current (1995-2004) and future decade (2045-2054) and using current decade historical fire data obtained from the Bureau of Land Management Database. Results are reported in terms of the effects of global change upon fire occurrence, fire plume transport and PM and ozone pollutant levels.

  3. Water deficit effects on maize yields modeled under current and greenhouse climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muchow, R.C.; Sinclair, T.R.

    1991-01-01

    The availability of water imposes one of the major limits on rainfed maize (Zea mays L.) productivity. This analysis was undertaken in an attempt to quantify the effects of limited water on maize growth and yield by extending a simple, mechanistic model in which temperature regulates crop development and intercepted solar radiation is used to calculate crop biomass accumulation. A soil water budget was incorporated into the model by accounting for inputs from rainfall and irrigation, and water use by soil evaporation and crop transpiration. The response functions of leaf area development and crop gas exchange to the soil water budget were developed from experimental studies. The model was used to interpret a range of field experiments using observed daily values of temperature, solar radiation, and rainfall or irrigation, where water deficits of varying durations developed at different stages of growth. The relative simplicity of the model and its robustness in simulating maize yields under a range of water-availability conditions allows the model to be readily used for studies of crop performance under alternate conditions. One such study, presented here, was a yield assessment for rainfed maize under possible greenhouse climates where temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration were increased. An increase in temperature combined with decreased rainfall lowered grain yield, although the increase in crop water use efficiency associated with elevated CO 2 concentration ameliorated the response to the greenhouse climate. Grain yields for the greenhouse climates as compared to current conditions increased, or decreased only slightly, except when the greenhouse climate was assumed to result in severly decreased rainfall

  4. Systematic review of current efforts to quantify the impacts of climate change on undernutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phalkey, Revati K; Aranda-Jan, Clara; Marx, Sabrina; Höfle, Bernhard; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2015-08-18

    Malnutrition is a challenge to the health and productivity of populations and is viewed as one of the five largest adverse health impacts of climate change. Nonetheless, systematic evidence quantifying these impacts is currently limited. Our aim was to assess the scientific evidence base for the impact of climate change on childhood undernutrition (particularly stunting) in subsistence farmers in low- and middle-income countries. A systematic review was conducted to identify peer-reviewed and gray full-text documents in English with no limits for year of publication or study design. Fifteen manuscripts were reviewed. Few studies use primary data to investigate the proportion of stunting that can be attributed to climate/weather variability. Although scattered and limited, current evidence suggests a significant but variable link between weather variables, e.g., rainfall, extreme weather events (floods/droughts), seasonality, and temperature, and childhood stunting at the household level (12 of 15 studies, 80%). In addition, we note that agricultural, socioeconomic, and demographic factors at the household and individual levels also play substantial roles in mediating the nutritional impacts. Comparable interdisciplinary studies based on primary data at a household level are urgently required to guide effective adaptation, particularly for rural subsistence farmers. Systemization of data collection at the global level is indispensable and urgent. We need to assimilate data from long-term, high-quality agricultural, environmental, socioeconomic, health, and demographic surveillance systems and develop robust statistical methods to establish and validate causal links, quantify impacts, and make reliable predictions that can guide evidence-based health interventions in the future.

  5. Study on climate change in Southwestern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zongxing

    2015-03-01

    Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

  6. Study on climate change in Southwestern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Zongxing

    2015-01-01

    Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

  7. Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Molinos, J; Burrows, M T; Poloczanska, E S

    2017-05-02

    Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.

  8. Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

  9. The Study of Climate on Alien Worlds

    OpenAIRE

    Heng, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    Comment: Published in American Scientist: Volume 100, Number 4, Pages 334 to 341. Text-only version. Full version available at http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/feature/2012/4/the-study-of-climate-on-alien-worlds

  10. Regional and historical factors supplement current climate in shaping global forest canopy height

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Jian; Nielsen, Scott; Mao, Lingfeng

    2016-01-01

    on Light Detection and Ranging-derived maximum forest canopy height (Hmax) to test hypotheses relating Hmax to current climate (water availability, ambient energy and water–energy dynamics), regional evolutionary and biogeographic history, historical climate change, and human disturbance. We derived Hmax...... biogeographic regions, supporting the role of regional evolutionary and biogeographic history in structuring broad-scale patterns in canopy height. Furthermore, there were divergent relationships between climate and Hmax between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, consistent with historical evolutionary...... contingencies modulating these relationships. Historical climate change was also related to Hmax, albeit not as strongly, with shorter canopy heights where late-Quaternary climate has been less stable. In contrast, human disturbance was only weakly related to Hmax at the scale (55 km) examined here. Synthesis...

  11. Climate change and indigenous peoples: A synthesis of current impacts and experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton-Smith, Kathryn; Lynn, Kathy; Chief, Karletta; Cozetto, Karen; Donatuto, Jamie; Hiza, Margaret; Kruger, Linda; Maldonado, Julie; Viles, Carson; Whyte, Kyle P.

    2016-01-01

    A growing body of literature examines the vulnerability, risk, resilience, and adaptation of indigenous peoples to climate change. This synthesis of literature brings together research pertaining to the impacts of climate change on sovereignty, culture, health, and economies that are currently being experienced by Alaska Native and American Indian tribes and other indigenous communities in the United States. The knowledge and science of how climate change impacts are affecting indigenous peoples contributes to the development of policies, plans, and programs for adapting to climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This report defines and describes the key frameworks that inform indigenous understandings of climate change impacts and pathways for adaptation and mitigation, namely, tribal sovereignty and self-determination, culture and cultural identity, and indigenous community health indicators. It also provides a comprehensive synthesis of climate knowledge, science, and strategies that indigenous communities are exploring, as well as an understanding of the gaps in research on these issues. This literature synthesis is intended to make a contribution to future efforts such as the 4th National Climate Assessment, while serving as a resource for future research, tribal and agency climate initiatives, and policy development.

  12. Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

    2012-12-01

    Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better

  13. Climate change studies for Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snelgrove, K.; Roberts, J.; Organ, M.

    2008-01-01

    Change is a constant for hydroelectric utilities. These organizations are continually faced with challenges involving future change. Traditionally, forecasting load has been essential but more and more there is evidence that climate change planning will be required to forecast supply issues as well. Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro (NLH) are initiating a study of climate change and its implications for operations and planning of hydroelectric and wind energy projects. In collaboration with Memorial University's Faculty of Engineering, NLH will begin this investigation by quantifying changes to volumes and timing of water inflows to their hydroelectric reservoirs and its impact on future operations. As the work continues, these studies may extend to climate induced load forecasting, the implications of icing and other climate extremes on infrastructure, and the integration of climate dependent alternate energy sources such as wind into the NLH system. NLH's group of companies is the 4th largest utility in Canada in terms of installed capacity at 7,289 MW. In addition to thermal generation, NLH operates 10 hydroelectric generating stations including the Churchill Falls facility at 5,428 MW, which boasts the second largest underground powerhouse in the world. Plans are currently underway to add a further 2,824 MW of installed capacity through the Lower Churchill Project as well as a mix of other conventional and alternate energy sources envisioned by the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador's Energy Plan. Many of these assets, especially hydro and wind energy generation are tightly coupled to the vagaries of the climate systems. Given these dependencies it is prudent to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty associated with future climate impacts. This presentation will summarize some of the very preliminary activities that have taken place to date, summarize literature that is available regarding climate projections for Newfoundland and Labrador and discuss

  14. Indiana bat summer maternity distribution: effects of current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan C. Loeb; Eric A. Winters

    2013-01-01

    Temperate zone bats may be more sensitive to climate change than other groups of mammals because many aspects of their ecology are closely linked to temperature. However, few studies have tried to predict the responses of bats to climate change. The Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) is a federally listed endangered species that is found in the eastern...

  15. Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K.

    2006-01-01

    The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat

  16. Bird Species and Climate Change. The Global Status Report. A synthesis of current scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change impacts on global bird species now, and projected future effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wormworth, J.; Mallon, K. [Climate Risk Pty Limited, Fairlight (Australia)

    2006-07-01

    The results of a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds are presented. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. It is found that: climate change now affects bird species' behaviour, ranges and population dynamics; some bird species are already experiencing strong negative impacts from climate change; and in future, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels and climatic response, climate change will put large numbers of bird species at risk of extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from 2 to 72%, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for birds to shift to new habitat.

  17. Usage of virtual research laboratory "Climate" prototype for Northern Eurasia climatic and ecological studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordov, Evgeny; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    Reported are some results of Northern Eurasia regional climatic and ecological monitoring and modeling obtained using recently developed prototype of thematic virtual research laboratory (VRL) Climate (http://climate.scert.ru/). The prototype integrates distributed thematic data storage, processing and analysis systems and set of models of complex climatic and environmental processes run on supercomputers. Its specific tools are aimed at high resolution rendering on-going climatic processes occurring in Northern Eurasia and reliable and found prognoses of their dynamics for selected sets of future mankind activity scenario. Currently VRL integrates on the base of geoportal the WRF and «Planet Simulator» models, basic reanalysis, meteorological stations data and support profound statistical analysis of storage and modeled on demand data. In particular, one can run the integrated models, preprocess modeling results data, using dedicated modules for numerical processing perform analysys and visualize obtained results. The prototype can provide specialists involved into multidisciplinary research projects with reliable and practical instruments for integrated research of climate and ecosystems changes on global and regional scales. With its help even a user without programming skills would be able to process and visualize multidimensional observational and model data through unified web-interface using a web-browser. Location, frequency and magnitude of observed in Siberia extremes has been studied using recently added prototype functionality allowing detailed statistical analysis studies of regional climatic extremes. Firstly it was shown that ECMWF ERA Interim Reanalysis data are closest to near surface temperature time series measured at regional meteorological stations. Statistical analysis of ERA Interim daily temperature time series (1979-2012) indicates the asymmetric changes in distribution tails of such extreme indices as warm/cold days/nights. Namely, the

  18. Evidence of current impact of climate change on life : A walk from genes to the biosphere

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Penuelas, Josep; Sardans, Jordi; Estiarte, Marc; Ogaya, Roma; Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Barbeta, Adria; Rivas-Ubach, Albert; Llusia, Joan; Garbulsky, Martin; Filella, Iolanda; Jump, Alistair S.

    We review the evidence of how organisms and populations are currently responding to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, genotypic evolution, changes in distribution and, in some cases, local extinction. Organisms alter their gene expression and metabolism to increase the concentrations of

  19. Introduction. Progress in Earth science and climate studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, J Michael T

    2008-12-28

    In this introductory paper, I review the 'visions of the future' articles prepared by top young scientists for the second of the two Christmas 2008 Triennial Issues of Phil. Trans. R. Soc.A, devoted respectively to astronomy and Earth science. Topics covered in the Earth science issue include: trace gases in the atmosphere; dynamics of the Antarctic circumpolar current; a study of the boundary between the Earth's rocky mantle and its iron core; and two studies of volcanoes and their plumes. A final section devoted to ecology and climate covers: the mathematical modelling of plant-soil interactions; the effects of the boreal forests on the Earth's climate; the role of the past palaeoclimate in testing and calibrating today's numerical climate models; and the evaluation of these models including the quantification of their uncertainties.

  20. Case Studies on Climate Change and World Heritage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colette, A.

    2007-07-01

    The UNESCO World Heritage Centre (WHC) initiated an assessment of the impacts of climate change on World Heritage in 2005, after the World Heritage Committee noted that 'the impacts of climate change are affecting many and are likely to affect many more World Heritage properties, both natural and cultural in the years to come'. A meeting of experts was convened in March 2006 bringing together over 50 representatives from the States Parties to the World Heritage Convention, various international organizations, non-governmental organizations, the Advisory Bodies to the World Heritage Committee, and academic and scientific experts, to discuss current and future impacts of climate change on World Heritage sites. The outcome of this initiative included a 'Report on Predicting and Managing the Effects of Climate Change on World Heritage', as well as a 'Strategy to Assist States Parties to Implement Appropriate Management Responses' which were endorsed by the World Heritage Committee at its 30th session in July 2006, Vilnius, Lithuania. The outcome of this work has shown that it is timely to develop and implement appropriate management responses to protect World Heritage in the face of climate change. The solutions to global warming are the subject of continuing debate. Some of these measures, beyond the scope of the World Heritage Convention, are discussed under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). But although climate change is a global challenge, there are many adaptation and preventive measures that can be taken at the local scale, i.e. at the level of the World Heritage sites. Studies are currently being conducted at several World Heritage sites to monitor climate change impacts and plan appropriate adaptation measures. But the World Heritage network is also a useful tool to share and promote lessons learnt and best practices, as well as to raise awareness regarding climate change impacts

  1. Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes

    KAUST Repository

    Wilson, S. K.

    2010-02-26

    Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef fishes were invited to submit five questions that, if addressed, would improve our understanding of climate change effects on coral reef fishes. Thirty-three scientists provided 155 questions, and 32 scientists scored these questions in terms of: (i) identifying a knowledge gap, (ii) achievability, (iii) applicability to a broad spectrum of species and reef habitats, and (iv) priority. Forty-two per cent of the questions related to habitat associations and community dynamics of fish, reflecting the established effects and immediate concern relating to climate-induced coral loss and habitat degradation. However, there were also questions on fish demographics, physiology, behaviour and management, all of which could be potentially affected by climate change. Irrespective of their individual expertise and background, scientists scored questions from different topics similarly, suggesting limited bias and recognition of a need for greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Presented here are the 53 highest-scoring unique questions. These questions should act as a guide for future research, providing a basis for better assessment and management of climate change impacts on coral reefs and associated fish communities.

  2. The regional species richness and genetic diversity of Arctic vegetation reflect both past glaciations and current climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stewart, L.; Alsos, Inger G.; Bay, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Aim The Arctic has experienced marked climatic differences between glacial and interglacial periods and is now subject to a rapidly warming climate. Knowledge of the effects of historical processes on current patterns of diversity may aid predictions of the responses of vegetation to future climate...... species richness of the vascular plant flora of 21 floristic provinces and examined local species richness in 6215 vegetation plots distributed across the Arctic. We assessed levels of genetic diversity inferred from amplified fragment length polymorphism variation across populations of 23 common Arctic...... size compared to the models of bryophyte and lichen richness. Main conclusion Our study suggests that imprints of past glaciations in Arctic vegetation diversity patterns at the regional scale are still detectable today. Since Arctic vegetation is still limited by post-glacial migration lag...

  3. Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rulin; Li, Qing; He, Shisong; Liu, Yuan; Wang, Mingtian; Jiang, Gan

    2018-01-01

    Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China. Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa. The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

  4. Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rulin Wang

    Full Text Available Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China.Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation.The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100 was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%, mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%, precipitation in May (11.5% and minimum temperature in October (10.8%, had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa.The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

  5. Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in China. Current status and the way ahead

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kejun Jiang; Xiulian Hu; Xianli Zhu; Garg, A.; Halsnaes, K.; Qiang Liu

    2007-09-01

    This report is the China Country Report of the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing economies. Under this project four country studies have been carried out, on China, India, Brazil, and South Africa respectively. The focus of this report is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. The report gives a short introduction to the project and its approach, followed by analyses of Chinese energy, development and climate change and an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. (BA)

  6. Changes in the world rivers' discharge projected from an updated high resolution dataset of current and future climate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santini, Monia; di Paola, Arianna

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, an updated global map of the current climate zoning and of its projections, according to the Köppen-Geiger classification, is first provided. The map at high horizontal resolution (0.5° × 0.5°), representative of the current (i.e. 1961-2005) conditions, is based on the Climate Research Unit dataset holding gridded series of historical observed temperature and precipitation, while projected conditions rely on the simulated series, for the same variables, by the General Circulation Model CMCC-CM. Modeled variables were corrected for their bias and then projections of climate zoning were generated for the medium term (2006-2050) and long term (2056-2100) future periods, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Results show that Equatorial and Arid climates will spread at the expenses of Snow and Polar climates, with the Warm Temperate experiencing more moderate increase. Maps of climate zones are valuable for a wide range of studies on climate change and its impacts, especially those regarding the water cycle that is strongly regulated by the combined conditions of precipitation and temperature. As example of large scale hydrological applications, in this work we tested and implemented a spatial statistical procedure, the geographically weighted regression among climate zones' surface and mean annual discharge (MAD) at hydrographic basin level, to quantify likely changes in MAD for the main world rivers monitored through the Global Runoff Data Center database. The selected river basins are representative of more than half of both global superficial freshwater resources and world's land area. Globally, a decrease in MAD is projected both in the medium term and long term, while spatial differences highlight how some areas require efforts to avoid consequences of amplified water scarcity, while other areas call for strategies to take the opportunity from the expected increase in water availability. Also the fluctuations of trends between the

  7. Potential effects of climate change on a marine invasion: The importance of current context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle M. CÔTÉ, Stephanie J. GREEN

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally. There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem. Here, we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator, the Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles. We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour: pelagic larval duration, because of its link to dispersal potential, and prey consumption rate, because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey. Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory, we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures, with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance. Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large, predicted reductions are, on average, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfish in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local retention of larvae, local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change. Increasing temperature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey, leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass. However, the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases (and hence overall prey consumption rates on invaded reefs. Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that, at least for the lionfish invasion, the threat is clear and present, rather than future [Current Zoology 58 (1: 1–8, 2012].

  8. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

  9. Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

    2017-02-07

    Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

  10. MECCA coordinated research program: analysis of climate models uncertainties used for climatic changes study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caneill, J.Y.; Hakkarinen, C.

    1992-01-01

    An international consortium, called MECCA, (Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment) has been created in 1991 by different partners including electric utilities, government and academic groups to make available to the international scientific community, a super-computer facility for climate evolution studies. The first phase of the program consists to assess uncertainties of climate model simulations in the framework of global climate change studies. Fourteen scientific projects have been accepted on an international basis in this first phase. The second phase of the program will consist in the evaluation of a set of long climate simulations realized with coupled ocean/atmosphere models, in order to study the transient aspects of climate changes and the associated uncertainties. A particular attention will be devoted, on the consequences of these assessments on climate impact studies, and on the regional aspects of climate changes

  11. ADAPTATION PROCESS TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE- AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghulam Mustafa

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Climatic variations affect agriculture in a process with no known end means. Adaptations help to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. Unfortunately, adaptation has never been considered as a process. Current study empirically identified the adaptation process and its different stages. Moreover, little is known about the farm level adaptation strategies and their determinants. The study in hand found farm level adaptation strategies and determinants of these strategies. The study identified three stages of adaptation i.e. perception, intention and adaptation. It was found that 71.4% farmers perceived about climate change, 58.5% intended to adapt while 40.2% actually adapted. The study further explored that farmers do adaptations through changing crop variety (56.3%, changing planting dates (44.6%, tree plantation (37.5%, increase/conserve irrigation (39.3% and crop diversification (49.2%. The adaptation strategies used by farmers were autonomous and mostly determined perception to climate change. It was also noted that the adaptation strategies move in a circular process and once they are adapted they remained adapted for a longer period of time. Some constraints slow the adaptation process so; we recommend farmers should be given price incentives to speed-up this process.

  12. The Contribution of Soils to North America's Current and Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayes, M. A.; Reed, S.; Thornton, P. E.; Lajtha, K.; Bailey, V. L.; Shrestha, G.; Jastrow, J. D.; Torn, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation will cover key aspects of the terrestrial soil carbon cycle in North America and the US for the upcoming State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCRII). SOCCRII seeks to summarize how natural processes and human interactions affect the global carbon cycle, how socio-economic trends affect greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and how ecosystems are influenced by and respond to greenhouse gas emissions, management decisions, and concomitant climate effects. Here, we will summarize the contemporary understanding of carbon stocks, fluxes, and drivers in the soil ecosystem compartment. We will highlight recent advances in modeling the magnitude of soil carbon stocks and fluxes, as well as the importance of remaining uncertainties in predicting soil carbon cycling and its relationship with climate. Attention will be given to the role of uncertainties in predicting future fluxes from soils, and how those uncertainties vary by region and ecosystem. We will also address how climate feedbacks and management decisions can enhance or minimize future climatic effects based on current understanding and observations, and will highlight select research needs to improve our understanding of the balance of carbon in soils in North America.

  13. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam E Vorsino

    Full Text Available Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75 as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1. This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  14. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  15. A study on safety climate at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukui, Hirokazu; Yoshida, Michio; Yoshiyama, Naohiro

    2001-01-01

    In the current study, we define safety climate as an organizational environment that induces members of the organization to give consideration to safety or take safety actions. It is of utmost importance that people holding managerial positions in an organization have a good understanding of the characteristics of the safety climate of the organization and implement safety promotion activities effectively. In the current research, we studied the rating scales and the characteristics of a safety climate. A survey was conducted, targeting technical engineers who belong to the three power stations of Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. The questionnaire mainly consisted of questions concerning safety measures taken by individuals and questions concerning safety measures taken by the organization, to which the individuals belong. As a result of a factor analysis of the responses, we extracted five factors, namely, 'confidence in knowledge and skill', attitude of supervisors,' 'safety education in workplace', 'clarity of tasks' and 'safety confirmation/report'. In studying the rating scales of the safety climate, we selected five items from each of the above five factors, and used the total scores of the ratings of the five items as scores of each factor. Then, we examined the correlation between scores of personal factors and scores of organizational environment factors. We treated the scores of safety confirmation/report' and 'confidence in knowledge and skill', which are personal factors, as criterion variables, and the scores of 'attitude of supervisors', 'safety education in workplace' and 'clarity of tasks', which are organizational environment factors, as predictor variables. As a result, we found that levels of 'safety confirmation/report' and 'confidence in knowledge and skill' can be deduced from the scores of 'attitude of supervisors', 'safety education in workplace' and 'clarity of tasks.' Hence, we have decided to use these three organizational environment

  16. The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tshepo S. Masipa

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to examine the impact of climate change on food security in South Africa. For this purpose, the article adopted a desktop study approach. Previous studies, reports, surveys and policies on climate change and food (insecurity. From this paper’s analysis, climate change presents a high risk to food security in sub-Saharan countries from crop production to food distribution and consumption. In light of this, it is found that climate change, particularly global warming, affects food security through food availability, accessibility, utilisation and affordability. To mitigate these risks, there is a need for an integrated policy approach to protect the arable land against global warming. The argument advanced in this article is that South Africa’s ability to adapt and protect its food items depends on the understanding of risks and the vulnerability of various food items to climate change. However, this poses a challenge in developing countries, including South Africa, because such countries have weak institutions and limited access to technology. Another concern is a wide gap between the cost of adapting and the necessary financial support from the government. There is also a need to invest in technologies that will resist risks on food systems.

  17. Relative roles of local disturbance, current climate and palaeoclimate in determining phylogenetic and functional diversity in Chinese forests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Gang; Mi, Xiangcheng; Bøcher, Peder Klith

    2014-01-01

    their relative roles in determining woody plant phylogenetic and functional diversity in this important hotspot for woody plant diversity. Local disturbance was the best predictor of functional diversity as represented by maximum canopy height (Hmax), probably reflecting the dominant role of competition...... studied, their relative importance for other aspects of diversity, notably phylogenetic and functional diversity is so far little studied. Here, we link data from large Chinese forest plots to data on current and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate as well as local disturbance regimes to study...

  18. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Study of longshore current equations for currents in Visakhapatnam beach

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chandramohan, P.; Rao, T.V.N.

    Longshore currents were measured along the Visakhapatnam Beach, Andhra Pradesh, India at weekly intervals from March 1978 to March 1979. Visual observations on breaker characteristics were also made during this period. Using modified Longuet...

  20. The effect of climate change on rural livestock farming: case study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The current paper further identifies the effect of climate change (e.g. drought, temperature and rainfall) on farmers and key stakeholders while establishing how they handle challenges associated with climate change in the study district. Data were collected from 22 participants, including officials associated with Veterinary ...

  1. Sustainability of small reservoirs and large scale water availability under current conditions and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Krol, Martinus S.; de Vries, Marjella J.; van Oel, P.R.; Carlos de Araújo, José

    2011-01-01

    Semi-arid river basins often rely on reservoirs for water supply. Small reservoirs may impact on large-scale water availability both by enhancing availability in a distributed sense and by subtracting water for large downstream user communities, e.g. served by large reservoirs. Both of these impacts of small reservoirs are subject to climate change. Using a case-study on North-East Brazil, this paper shows that climate change impacts on water availability may be severe, and impacts on distrib...

  2. Leishmaniasis and Climate Change—Case Study: Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Daniel Salomón

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Vector-borne diseases closely associated with the environment, such as leishmaniases, have been a usual argument about the deleterious impact of climate change on public health. From the biological point of view interaction of different variables has different and even conflicting effects on the survival of vectors and the probability transmission of pathogens. The results on ecoepidemiology of leishmaniasis in Argentina related to climate variables at different scales of space and time are presented. These studies showed that the changes in transmission due to change or increase in frequency and intensity of climatic instability were expressed through changes in the probability of vector-human reservoir effective contacts. These changes of contact in turn are modulated by both direct effects on the biology and ecology of the organisms involved, as by perceptions and changes in the behavior of the human communities at risk. Therefore, from the perspective of public health and state policy, and taking into account the current nonlinear increased velocity of climate change, we concluded that discussing the uncertainties of large-scale models will have lower impact than to develop-validate mitigation strategies to be operative at local level, and compatibles with sustainable development, conservation biodiversity, and respect for cultural diversity.

  3. Interviewing German scientists on climate change. A preliminary study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ungar, S. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung; Toronto Univ., Scarborough (Canada)

    2004-07-01

    This study is based on in-depth interviews with 25 German scientists at the Coastal Research Institute of the GKSS-Forschungszentrum. It takes as its context the differential rhetoric and planning on climate change found in Germany and North America. The interviews try to throw light on the early German decision to address climate change, and to assess the current attitudes, beliefs and experiences of these German scientists. The results reveal a degree of complacency among these scientists, including a sense that Germany is not particularly threatened by climate change and has the capacity to adapt to it. The scientists are critical of inaction among the German population, but themselves uphold a ''light version'' of the precautionary principle. They have great difficulty translating the idea of climate change into popular metaphors that can be grasped by children. They strongly reject any link between German leadership on the issue as a result of a sense of guilt about the German past. (orig.)

  4. A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabani, Farzin; Shafapour Tehrany, Mahyat; Solhjouy-Fard, Samaneh; Kumar, Lalit

    2018-01-01

    Aedes albopictus , the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus ? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i) regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii) regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF), together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers), to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC) using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs), Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically, according

  5. A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzin Shabani

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Aedes albopictus, the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF, together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers, to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs, Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically

  6. Simulating the Current Water Cycle with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Brecht, A. S.; Urata, R. A.; Montmessin, F.

    2017-12-01

    The water cycle is a critical component of the current Mars climate system, and it is now widely recognized that water ice clouds significantly affect the nature of the simulated water cycle. Two processes are key to implementing clouds in a Mars global climate model (GCM): the microphysical processes of formation and dissipation, and their radiative effects on atmospheric heating/cooling rates. Together, these processes alter the thermal structure, change the atmospheric dynamics, and regulate inter-hemispheric transport. We have made considerable progress using the NASA Ames Mars GCM to simulate the current-day water cycle with radiatively active clouds. Cloud fields from our baseline simulation are in generally good agreement with observations. The predicted seasonal extent and peak IR optical depths are consistent MGS/TES observations. Additionally, the thermal response to the clouds in the aphelion cloud belt (ACB) is generally consistent with observations and other climate model predictions. Notably, there is a distinct gap in the predicted clouds over the North Residual Cap (NRC) during local summer, but the clouds reappear in this simulation over the NRC earlier than the observations indicate. Polar clouds are predicted near the seasonal CO2 ice caps, but the column thicknesses of these clouds are generally too thick compared to observations. Our baseline simulation is dry compared to MGS/TES-observed water vapor abundances, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. These areas of disagreement appear to be a consistent with other current water cycle GCMs. Future avenues of investigation will target improving our understanding of what controls the vertical extent of clouds and the apparent seasonal evolution of cloud particle sizes within the ACB.

  7. Fixing Climate: What Past Climate Changes Reveal About the Current Threat-And How to Counter It

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinley, Galen A.

    2008-10-01

    The Earth's climate is changing due to human activities. Recent polls suggest that the U.S. public generally recognizes this fact, and the efforts that led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former U.S. vice president Al Gore to win the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize have played no small role in bringing most of the public to realize what scientists have been discussing for years. Yet aside from distorted Hollywood movie accounts such as The Day After Tomorrow, the public knows little about the potential for abrupt change in the climate system. With support from climate science philanthropist Gary Comer, climate scientist Wally Broecker has teamed with science writer Robert Kunzig in this book to bring abrupt climate change into public view. They do this elegantly and convincingly, making the first 12 chapters quite enjoyable.

  8. Climate change mitigation studies in Sri Lanka

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickramaratne, Rupa

    1998-01-01

    In Sri Lanka, Climate Change Mitigation Studies have received low priority and have been limited to an ADB-sponsored preliminary study followed by an initial assessment of some mitigation options in the energy and agricultural sectors, with technical assistance from the US Country Studies Program. The major focus was on options of the mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector. Owing to funding constraints, only the potential for reduction of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the various mitigation options were quantified; analysis of monetary costs and benefits or policy/programs for adoption of the options were not undertaken. For the non-energy sector, a very limited study on mitigation of methane emissions from rice fields was carried out. (au)

  9. The Northern Climate Exchange Gap Analysis Project : an assessment of the current state of knowledge about the impacts of climate change in northern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The Northern Climate ExChange (NCE) Gap Analysis Project was launched in 1999 with an objective to assess the state of knowledge on climate change in northern Canada. Resulting products of the project have included the Infosource Database, an on-line database of published climate change research related to the Canadian North, the Directory of Contacts, another on-line database of interested parties to climate change issues, and a set of tables that rate the level of available information on climate change as it relates to natural, economic and community systems. Other products include a report of a workshop on climate change research, 2 reports assessing the level of traditional northern knowledge about climate change, 2 reports assessing the completeness and value of the Infosource Database, a web site for NCE, and this report. All products are available to the public on the Internet or on a CD-ROM. The NCE Gap Analysis Project has shown there are inequalities in the amount of information across different systems, and that there is more knowledge on predicted temperature changes than for other climate components. The study notes that there are strong regional trends for compiled knowledge, with some regions having been better studied than others. The project revealed that traditional knowledge of climate change has not been well documented, and that more information exists about climate change impacts on biological systems with an economic component than those without economic significance. refs., tabs., figs

  10. Current meter components and other data from FIXED PLATFORMS from Gulf of Guinea and other locations as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) and other projects from 08 July 1976 to 01 April 1982 (NODC Accession 9000067)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter components data were collected from FIXED PLATFORMS in the Gulf of Guinea and other locations from 08 July 1976 to 01 April 1982. Data were collected...

  11. Wind and temperature data from current meter in the TOGA - Pacific Ocean (30 N to 30 S) as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS), 28 May 1994 to 21 March 1995 (NODC Accession 9800041)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Wind and temperature data were collected using current meter in the TOGA Area - Pacific Ocean (30 N to 30 S) from May 28, 1994 to March 21, 1995. Data were submitted...

  12. Current and other data from meters attached to FIXED PLATFORMS in the coastal waters of Florida in support of the Subtropical Atlantic Climate Study 4 (STACS) from 1983-06-08 to 1983-12-13 (NODC Accession 8700019)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current and other data from meters attached to FIXED PLATFORMS in the coastal waters of Florida. Data were collected by University of Miami; Rosenstiel School of...

  13. Current and other data from meters attached to FIXED PLATFORMS in the coastal waters of Florida in support of the Subtropical Atlantic Climate Study 3 (STACS) from 1980-11-10 to 1983-06-07 (NODC Accession 8800120)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current and other data from meters attached to FIXED PLATFORMS in the coastal waters of Florida. Data were collected by University of Miami; Rosenstiel School of...

  14. Current and other data from meters attached to FIXED PLATFORMS in the coastal waters of Florida in support of the Subtropical Atlantic Climate Study 6 (STACS) from 1984-06-19 to 1987-03-27 (NODC Accession 8900060)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current and other data from meters attached to FIXED PLATFORMS in the coastal waters of Florida. Data were collected by University of Miami; Rosenstiel School of...

  15. The Impacts of Maximum Temperature and Climate Change to Current and Future Pollen Distribution in Skopje, Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Kendrovski

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND. The goal of the present paper was to assess the impact of current and future burden of the ambient temperature to pollen distributions in Skopje. METHODS. In the study we have evaluated a correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere of Skopje and maximum temperature, during the vegetation period of 1996, 2003, 2007 and 2009 as a current burden in context of climate change. For our analysis we have selected 9 representative of each phytoallergen group (trees, grasses, weeds. The concentration of pollen grains has been monitored by a Lanzoni volumetric pollen trap. The correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere and selected meteorological variable from weekly monitoring has been studied with the help of linear regression and correlation coefficients. RESULTS. The prevalence of the sensibilization of standard pollen allergens in Skopje during the some period shows increasing from 16,9% in 1996 to 19,8% in 2009. We detect differences in onset of flowering, maximum and end of the length of seasons for pollen. The pollen distributions and risk increases in 3 main periods: early spring, spring and summer which are the main cause of allergies during these seasons. The largest increase of air temperature due to climate change in Skopje is expected in the summer season. CONCLUSION. The impacts of climate change by increasing of the temperature in the next decades very likely will include impacts on pollen production and differences in current pollen season. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2012; 11(1.000: 35-40

  16. Comparison of two down-scaling methods for climate study and climate change on the mountain areas in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piazza, Marie; Page, Christian; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent; Deque, Michel

    2013-01-01

    Mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and are likely to be among the areas most impacted by global warming. But climate projections for the end of the 21. century are developed with general circulation models of climate, which do not present a sufficient horizontal resolution to accurately evaluate the impacts of warming on these regions. Several techniques are then used to perform a spatial down-scaling (on the order of 10 km). There are two categories of down-scaling methods: dynamical methods that require significant computational resources for the achievement of regional climate simulations at high resolution, and statistical methods that require few resources but an observation dataset over a long period and of good quality. In this study, climate simulations of the global atmospheric model ARPEGE projections over France are down-scaled according to a dynamical method, performed with the ALADIN-Climate regional model, and a statistical method performed with the software DSClim developed at CERFACS. The two down-scaling methods are presented and the results on the climate of the French mountains are evaluated for the current climate. Both methods give similar results for average snowfall. However extreme events of total precipitation (droughts, intense precipitation events) are largely underestimated by the statistical method. Then, the results of both methods are compared for two future climate projections, according to the greenhouse gas emissions scenario A1B of IPCC. The two methods agree on fewer frost days, a significant decrease in the amounts of solid precipitation and an average increase in the percentage of dry days of more than 10%. The results obtained on Corsica are more heterogeneous but they are questionable because the reduced spatial domain is probably not very relevant regarding statistical sampling. (authors)

  17. Supporting NGSS-aligned Study of Authentic Data about Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalles, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    The subject of climate change holds tremendous opportunity for students to learn how scientists use data to develop and test theories of how the natural world works and appreciate how climate change instantiates cross-cutting NGSS science themes like stability and change, energy and matter, and cause and effect. To do so, students and teachers need help seeing in authentic Earth system data complex climate interactions and generate plans for building greater understanding of the complexities through further data investigation. With ever-growing repositories of global and regional public data and user friendly tools for their display, K-12 educators are challenged to help students study data independently rather than through the usual pre-filtered didactic presentations of data found in textbooks. The paper will describe strategies for facilitating critical thinking about authentic climate-related data in two climate change education projects funded by NASA and NSF, as well as learning outcomes. Data Enhanced Investigations for Climate Change Education (dicce.sri.com) brings data from NASA satellite missions to classrooms. Studying Topography, Orographic Rainfall, and Ecosystems with Geospatial Information Technology (store.sri.com) provides recent climatological and vegetation data about certain study areas in California and New York plus geospatially distributed projected values of temperature, precipitation, and land cover in 2050 and 2099, derived from NCAR's A2 climate change model. Supportive resources help students move from naïve conceptions of simple linear relationships between variables into critical analysis of what other variables could be mediating those relationships. DICCE contains guides for how to interpret multiyear trends that are evident in the NASA mission data in relation to what we know about current climate change. If a learner plots a line of best fit across multiple months or years of regional data and notices that the line is either

  18. Comparative study on Climate Change Policies in the EU and China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, M.; Han, D.

    2012-04-01

    Both the EU and China are among the largest CO2 emitters in the world; their climate actions and policies have profound impacts on global climate change and may influence the activities in other countries. Evidence of climate change has been observed across Europe and China. Despite the many differences between the two regions, the European Commission and Chinese government support climate change actions. The EU has three priority areas in climate change: 1) understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impact; 2) providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, cost and benefits of different policy options for mitigating climate change and adapting to its impacts; 3) improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climate friendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future. China is very vulnerable to climate change, because of its vast population, fast economic development, and fragile ecological environment. The priority policies in China are: 1) Carbon Trading Policy; 2) Financing Loan Policy (Special Funds for Renewable Energy Development); 3) Energy Efficiency Labelling Policy; 4) Subsidy Policy. In addition, China has formulated the "Energy Conservation Law", "Renewable Energy Law", "Cleaner Production Promotion Law" and "Circular Economy Promotion Law". Under the present EU Framework Programme FP7 there is a large number of funded research activities linked to climate change research. Current climate change research projects concentrate on the carbon cycle, water quality and availability, climate change predictors, predicting future climate and understanding past climates. Climate change-related scientific and technological projects in China are mostly carried out through national scientific and technological research programs. Areas under investigation include projections and impact of global climate change, the future trends of living environment change in China, countermeasures and supporting technologies of global

  19. White book Escrime. Climatic simulation studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terray, L.; Braconnot, P.

    2007-01-01

    The ESCRIME project aims to manage the analysis realized on the climatic simulations on the framework of the fourth report of the GIEC (group of intergovernmental experts on the climate evolution), in particularly the simulations based on french models. This white book is constituted by 8 chapters: the global scenario, the climatic sensibility, the variation modes, the regionalization and the extremes, the hydrological cycle, the polar regions and the cryo-sphere, the carbon cycle, detection and attributions. (A.L.B.)

  20. Climate Change Awareness among the High School Students: Case Study from a Climate Vulnerable Country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M.A. Rahman

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is one the worst sufferers of climate change. Climate change awareness creation is pivotal to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Effective dissemination of knowledge among the citizens during high school years is crucial to that end. In Bangladesh, secondary school students follow common curricula which include entries on climate change. This paper investigates the role of the diverse demographic profiles and inherent scholastic background of students on their informedness. The research is based on responses from secondary schools students in Chittagong, Bangladesh. Based on their understanding of climate change, we have constructed the Climate Awareness Index (CAI. Then the relative roles of demographic determinants of the awareness have been compared using the CAI. The quality of schools, and grade, major and merit position of students have affected the CAI values. Besides, the study concluded that the religion, gender, parental education, occupation and income, etc. could affect students’ climate change informedness in Bangladesh.

  1. Inconsistencies at the interface of climate impact studies and global climate research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storch, H. von.

    1994-01-01

    Most climate impacts studies, whether they deal with, for instance, terristric or marine ecosystems, coastal morphodynamics, storm surges and damages, or socio-economic aspects, utilize ''scenarios'' of possible future climate. Such scenarios are always based on the output of complex mathematical climate models, whenever they are in any sense detailed. Unfortunately, the user community of such scenarios usually is not well informed about the limitations and potentials of such models. On the other hand, the climate modeller community is not sufficiently aware of the demands on the side of the ''users''. The state of the art of climate models is revieved and the principal limitations concerning the spatial/time resolution and the accuracy of simulated data are discussed. The need for a ''downscaling strategy'' on the climate modeller side and for an ''upscaling'' strategy on the user side is demonstrated. Examples for successful exercieses in downscaling seasonal mean precipitation and daily rainfall sequences are shown. (orig.)

  2. The ENIQ pilot study: current status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemaitre, P; Eriksen, B; Crutzen, S [European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Petten (Netherlands); Hansch, M [Preussische Elektrizitaets-AG (Preussenelektra), Hannover (Germany); Whittle, J [AEA Technology, Warrington (United Kingdom)

    1998-11-01

    A pilot study is currently being carried out by ENIQ (European Network for Inspection Qualification) in order to explore the issues involved in inspection qualification applied along the general principles of the European methodology. The components selected for the pilot study are austenitic pipe to pipe and pipe to elbows welds typical of those in BWR recirculation loops. A range of defect parameters has been defined. A suitable inspection procedure designed to find the designated defects will be applied to geometrically representative test pieces. The procedure/equipment will be qualified through open trials and technical justification. The personnel qualification will be done in a blind way. Once all features of the inspection system will have been qualified an in-service inspection will be simulated in order to test the feasibility of the qualification approach followed. In this paper the current status of this pilot study is discussed. (orig.)

  3. Overview of the Kenya country studies on Climate Change Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gacuhi, R.A.

    1998-01-01

    The general objective of the Kenya country study on climate change was to make a contribution to the global efforts of finding a solution to climatic change problem.The specific objectives were, Contribute to the development of national capacity to handle climatic changes issues, Assess the country's contribution to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG's), Evaluate the vulnerability of various sensitive sectors to impacts of climate change, Generate information useful to the development of an overall national policy on climate change, Lay a foundation for development of national action plans and national communication required under the UNFCCC

  4. Railway safety climate: a study on organizational development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Yung-Hsiang

    2017-09-07

    The safety climate of an organization is considered a leading indicator of potential risk for railway organizations. This study adopts the perceptual measurement-individual attribute approach to investigate the safety climate of a railway organization. The railway safety climate attributes are evaluated from the perspective of railway system staff. We identify four safety climate dimensions from exploratory factor analysis, namely safety communication, safety training, safety management and subjectively evaluated safety performance. Analytical results indicate that the safety climate differs at vertical and horizontal organizational levels. This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence of the multilevel safety climate in a railway organization, presents possible causes of the differences under various cultural contexts and differentiates between safety climate scales for diverse workgroups within the railway organization. This information can be used to improve the safety sustainability of railway organizations and to conduct safety supervisions for the government.

  5. Modeling Nitrogen Losses in Conventional and Advanced Soil-Based Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems under Current and Changing Climate Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Ivan; Cooper, Jennifer; Amador, José A; Boving, Thomas B

    2016-01-01

    Most of the non-point source nitrogen (N) load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Nitrogen compounds cause eutrophication, depleting the oxygen in marine ecosystems. OWTS rely on physical, chemical and biological soil processes to treat wastewater and these processes may be affected by climate change. We simulated the fate and transport of N in different types of OWTS drainfields, or soil treatment areas (STA) under current and changing climate scenarios, using 2D/3D HYDRUS software. Experimental data from a mesocosm-scale study, including soil moisture content, and total N, ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-) concentrations, were used to calibrate the model. A water content-dependent function was used to compute the nitrification and denitrification rates. Three types of drainfields were simulated: (1) a pipe-and-stone (P&S), (2) advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (PSND) and (3) Geomat (GEO), a variation of SND. The model was calibrated with acceptable goodness-of-fit between the observed and measured values. Average root mean square error (RSME) ranged from 0.18 and 2.88 mg L-1 for NH4+ and 4.45 mg L-1 to 9.65 mg L-1 for NO3- in all drainfield types. The calibrated model was used to estimate N fluxes for both conventional and advanced STAs under current and changing climate conditions, i.e. increased soil temperature and higher water table. The model computed N losses from nitrification and denitrification differed little from measured losses in all STAs. The modeled N losses occurred mostly as NO3- in water outputs, accounting for more than 82% of N inputs in all drainfields. Losses as N2 were estimated to be 10.4% and 9.7% of total N input concentration for SND and Geo, respectively. The highest N2 losses, 17.6%, were estimated for P&S. Losses as N2 increased to 22%, 37% and 21% under changing climate conditions for Geo, PSND and P&S, respectively. These findings can provide practitioners

  6. Classical Ecological Restoration and its Current Challenges: Assisted Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilar A. Gómez-Ruiz

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecological restoration is a very active area in ecology and of great importance for ecosystems management. Despite of being a relatively young discipline, the classical concepts of restoration seem, at present, impractical considering the great challenges generated by modification and destruction of ecosystems. This is due to anthropic activities (deforestation, change of land use, pollution and global climate change. In the classic definition of restoration, the objective is to recover the degraded ecosystem to the same conditions of a historical reference state. However, nowadays the ecosystems return to a state prior to the disturbances seems unviable, because the thresholds of resilience have already been overcome. Additionally, climate change is causing environmental changes at an unprecedented rate. For this reason, ecological restoration needs to unite efforts of diverse actors to recover ecosystems that can be sustainable and functional in the future, where the species could be able to tolerate the environmental conditions that will exist in the long term. Assisted migration has been proposed as a conservation strategy; it is defined as the translocation of species to new locations outside their known range of distribution. In the current context of loss of diversity and ecosystems, this strategy could be fundamental for the formation of new communities that can later become novel ecosystems where species that are fundamental to the dynamics of ecosystems can persist and, at the same time, recover function, structure and resilience.

  7. Multiscale Study of Currents Affected by Topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Multiscale Study of Currents Affected by Topography ...the effects of topography on the ocean general and regional circulation with a focus on the wide range of scales of interactions. The small-scale...details of the topography and the waves, eddies, drag, and turbulence it generates (at spatial scales ranging from meters to mesoscale) interact in the

  8. Several Suggestions on the Climate Change and Its Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    According to the abundant studies,the relevant information and comprehensive analysis of the climate changes,several important problems on the climate changes and its studies were proposed.Based on the temporal distribution of the meteorological disaster of agriculture,the wave theory was expounded so as to draw people's attention on climate changes and to be objective,just and careful about the study.

  9. Climate Literacy: Progress in AMS Climate Studies Undergraduate Course in Meteorology Program at Jackson State University

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, S. R.

    2013-12-01

    AMS Climate Studies is an introductory college-level course developed by the American Meteorological Society for implementation at undergraduate institutions nationwide and increasing involvement of under-represented groups The course places students in a dynamic and highly motivational educational environment where they investigate Earth's climate system using real-world environmental data. The AMS Climate Studies course package consists of a textbook, investigations manual, course website, and course management system-compatible files. Instructors can use these resources in combinations that make for an exciting learning experience for their students. The AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project Workshop participation is on a first-come, first-serve basis as determined by the date-of-receipt of the License Order Form. To grow AMS Diversity Programs to their fullest extent, institutions are encouraged to nominate course instructors who did not previously attend Diversity Project workshops. Until three months before the workshop, two-thirds of the workshop positions would be reserved for institutions new to AMS Diversity Projects. The AMS five day course implementation workshop was held in Washington, DC, during May 24-29, 2012. It covered essential course topics in climate science and global climate change, and strategies for course implementation. Talks would feature climate science and sustainability experts from Federal agencies and area research institutions, such as NASA, NOAA, University of Maryland, Howard University, George Mason University, and other Washington, DC, area institutions. The workshop would also include visits to NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. JSU Meteorology Program will be offering AMS Climate Studies undergraduate course under MET 210: Climatology in spring 2014. AMS Climate Studies is offered as a 3 credit hour laboratory course with 2 lectures and 1 lab sessions per week. Although this course places

  10. A study on safety climate at nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fukui, Hirokazu [Institute of Nuclear Safety System Inc., Mihama, Fukui (Japan); Yoshida, Michio; Yoshiyama, Naohiro [Japan Institute for Group Dynamics, Fukuoka (Japan)

    2001-09-01

    In the current study, we define safety climate as an organizational environment that induces members of the organization to give consideration to safety or take safety actions. It is of utmost importance that people holding managerial positions in an organization have a good understanding of the characteristics of the safety climate of the organization and implement safety promotion activities effectively. In the current research, we studied the rating scales and the characteristics of a safety climate. A survey was conducted, targeting technical engineers who belong to the three power stations of Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. The questionnaire mainly consisted of questions concerning safety measures taken by individuals and questions concerning safety measures taken by the organization, to which the individuals belong. As a result of a factor analysis of the responses, we extracted five factors, namely, 'confidence in knowledge and skill', attitude of supervisors,' 'safety education in workplace', 'clarity of tasks' and 'safety confirmation/report'. In studying the rating scales of the safety climate, we selected five items from each of the above five factors, and used the total scores of the ratings of the five items as scores of each factor. Then, we examined the correlation between scores of personal factors and scores of organizational environment factors. We treated the scores of safety confirmation/report' and 'confidence in knowledge and skill', which are personal factors, as criterion variables, and the scores of 'attitude of supervisors', 'safety education in workplace' and 'clarity of tasks', which are organizational environment factors, as predictor variables. As a result, we found that levels of 'safety confirmation/report' and 'confidence in knowledge and skill' can be deduced from the scores of 'attitude of supervisors', &apos

  11. Policy Case Study – Food Labelling: Climate for Sustainable Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Cosbey, Aaron; Marcu, Andrei; Belis, David; Stoefs, Wijnand; Tuokko, Katja

    2015-01-01

    This study, which is part of the project entitled “Climate for Sustainable Growth“, focuses on one particular policy tool used in the agricultural sector, food labelling. It reviews food carbon labelling when put in place with clear objectives to address climate change. This study examines whether food carbon labels, as climate mitigation tools, are put in place in a sustainable way, by identifying their impacts on the three dimensions of sustainable development: 1) economic 2) social and ...

  12. The Effects of Inter-annual Climate Variability on the Departures of Leatherback Marine Turtles from the California Current Ecosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Van Zerr, Vanessa E

    2013-01-01

    The Pacific Ocean is a highly variable environment, and changes in oceanographic conditions impact the distributions of many organisms. Inter-annual climate variability, especially the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, is known to have wide-ranging impacts on organisms in the California Current. Understanding the factors that drive changes in the spatial ecology of organisms, such as inter-annual climate variability, is essential in many cases for effective conservation. Leatherback marine turtle...

  13. Beyond dichotomies: Gender and intersecting inequalities in climate change studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djoudi, Houria; Locatelli, Bruno; Vaast, Chloe; Asher, Kiran; Brockhaus, Maria; Basnett Sijapati, Bimbika

    2016-12-01

    Climate change and related adaptation strategies have gender-differentiated impacts. This paper reviews how gender is framed in 41 papers on climate change adaptation through an intersectionality lens. The main findings show that while intersectional analysis has demonstrated many advantages for a comprehensive study of gender, it has not yet entered the field of climate change and gender. In climate change studies, gender is mostly handled in a men-versus-women dichotomy and little or no attention has been paid to power and social and political relations. These gaps which are echoed in other domains of development and gender research depict a 'feminization of vulnerability' and reinforce a 'victimization' discourse within climate change studies. We argue that a critical intersectional assessment would contribute to unveil agency and emancipatory pathways in the adaptation process by providing a better understanding of how the differential impacts of climate change shape, and are shaped by, the complex power dynamics of existing social and political relations.

  14. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Yin, X.; Zhu, Y.; Boote, K.; Adam, M.; Bregaglio, S.; Buis, S.; Confalonieri, R.; Fumoto, T.; Gaydon, D.; Marcaida III, M.; Nakagawa, H.; Oriol, P.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Singh, B.; Singh, U.; Tang, L.; Yoshida, H.; Zhang, Z.; Bouman, B.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We

  15. Gulf Coast climate change adaptation pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Climate change-related issues place substantial operating and financial burdens on public transit agencies, particularly in coastal settings. Gulf of Mexico coastal transit agencies and their constituents are especially vulnerable to natural hazards ...

  16. Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A.

    2018-01-01

    Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California’s progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions. PMID:29072936

  17. Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganesh, Chandrakala; Smith, Jason A

    2018-04-01

    Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California's progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions.

  18. Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, J.M. [University of Hamburg (Germany). Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change; Maddison, D.J. [University of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark). Economics Institute; Centre for Cultural Economics and Management, London (United Kingdom); Tol, R.S.J. [University of Hamburg (Germany). Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change; Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands). Institute for Environmental Studies; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh (United States). Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change

    2005-10-01

    The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here, a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gasp. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes un population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however, the change from climate change is smaller than from population and income changes. (author)

  19. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 1984-04-16 to 1985-10-01 (NODC Accession 8700147)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) from April 16, 1984 to October 1, 1985. Data were...

  20. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 1987-05-01 to 1987-05-05 (NODC Accession 9000211)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) from 01 May 1987 to 06 August 1988. Data were submitted...

  1. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the SW Pacific (limit-147 E to 140 W) as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 1985-09-29 to 1986-04-01 (NODC Accession 8800136)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the SW Pacific (limit-147 E to 140 W) from September 29, 1985 to June 1, 1986. Data were...

  2. Current and future climate- and air pollution-mediated impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; Wilkinson, Paul; Pattenden, Sam; Vieno, Massimo; Armstrong, Ben; Atkinson, Richard; Chalabi, Zaid; Kovats, Sari; Milojevic, Ai; Stevenson, David S

    2009-12-21

    We describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios. Mortality burdens attributable to heat and ozone exposure are estimated by combination of climate-chemistry modelling and epidemiological risk assessment. Weather forecasting models (WRF) are used to simulate the driving meteorology for the EMEP4UK chemistry transport model at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution across the UK; the coupled WRF-EMEP4UK model is used to simulate daily surface temperature and ozone concentrations for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006, and for future emission scenarios. The outputs of these models are combined with evidence on the ozone-mortality and heat-mortality relationships derived from epidemiological analyses (time series regressions) of daily mortality in 15 UK conurbations, 1993-2003, to quantify present-day health burdens. During the August 2003 heatwave period, elevated ozone concentrations > 200 microg m-3 were measured at sites in London and elsewhere. This and other ozone photochemical episodes cause breaches of the UK air quality objective for ozone. Simulations performed with WRF-EMEP4UK reproduce the August 2003 heatwave temperatures and ozone concentrations. There remains day-to-day variability in the high ozone concentrations during the heatwave period, which on some days may be explained by ozone import from the European continent.Preliminary calculations using extended time series of spatially-resolved WRF-EMEP4UK model output suggest that in the summers (May to September) of 2003, 2005 & 2006 over 6000 deaths were attributable to ozone and around 5000 to heat in England and Wales. The regional variation in these deaths appears greater for heat-related than for ozone-related burdens.Changes in UK health burdens due to a range of future emission scenarios will be quantified. These future emissions scenarios span a range of possible futures from assuming current air quality

  3. Risk management perspective for climate service development - Results from a study on Finnish organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harjanne, Atte; Haavisto, Riina; Tuomenvirta, Heikki; Gregow, Hilppa

    2017-10-01

    Weather, climate and climate change can cause significant risks to businesses and public administration. However, understanding these processes can also create opportunities. Information can help to manage these risks and opportunities, but in order to do so, it must be in line with how risk management and decision making works. To better understand how climate risks and opportunities are reflected in different organizational processes and what types of information is needed and used, we conducted a study on the perceptions and management of weather and climate risks in Finnish organizations and on their use of weather and climate information. In addition, we collected feedback on how the existing climate information tools should be developed. Data on climate risk management was collected in an online survey and in one full-day workshop. The survey was aimed to the Finnish public and private organizations who use weather and climate data and altogether 118 responses were collected. The workshop consisted of two parts: weather and climate risk management processes in general and the development of the current information tools to further address user needs.We found that climate risk management in organizations is quite diverse and often de-centralized and that external experts are considered the most useful sources of information. Consequently, users emphasize the need for networks of expertise and sector-specific information tools. Creating such services requires input and information sharing from the user side as well. Better temporal and spatial accuracy is naturally asked for, but users also stressed the need for transparency when it comes to communicating uncertainties, and the availability and up-to-datedness of information. Our results illustrate that weather and climate risks compete and blend in with other risks and changes perceived by the organizations and supporting information is sought from different types of sources. Thus the design and evaluation of

  4. An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

    2017-12-01

    A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

  5. Species distributions and climate change:current patterns and future scenarios for biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian

    by shifts of their distributional ranges, which affects the spatial patterns of species richness and turnover. Global temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 - 4°C until the end of the century; hence climate change will most likely leave further imprints on species and ecosystems. This PhD thesis aims......-thirds of the areas harboring the richest amphibian faunas may be heavily impacted by at least one of the major threats by 2080. The stability of the climatic niche influences the need for a species to track climate change via dispersal, or its potential to adapt to novel climatic conditions. I therefore explore...... the phylogenetic signal in climatic niches of the world's amphibians, which serves as a surrogate quantification of niche stability. Results indicate an overall tendency of phylogenetic signal to be present in realised climatic niches, but signal strength varies across biogeographical regions and among amphibian...

  6. Current and future groundwater recharge in West Africa as estimated from a range of coupled climate model outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhoef, Anne; Cook, Peter; Black, Emily; Macdonald, David; Sorensen, James

    2017-04-01

    This research addresses the terrestrial water balance for West Africa. Emphasis is on the prediction of groundwater recharge and how this may change in the future, which has relevance to the management of surface and groundwater resources. The study was conducted as part of the BRAVE research project, "Building understanding of climate variability into planning of groundwater supplies from low storage aquifers in Africa - Second Phase", funded under the NERC/DFID/ESRC Programme, Unlocking the Potential of Groundwater for the Poor (UPGro). We used model output data of water balance components (precipitation, surface and subsurface run-off, evapotranspiration and soil moisture content) from ERA-Interim/ERA-LAND reanalysis, CMIP5, and high resolution model runs with HadGEM3 (UPSCALE; Mizielinski et al., 2014), for current and future time-periods. Water balance components varied widely between the different models; variation was particularly large for sub-surface runoff (defined as drainage from the bottom-most soil layer of each model). In-situ data for groundwater recharge obtained from the peer-reviewed literature were compared with the model outputs. Separate off-line model sensitivity studies with key land surface models were performed to gain understanding of the reasons behind the model differences. These analyses were centered on vegetation, and soil hydraulic parameters. The modelled current and future recharge time series that had the greatest degree of confidence were used to examine the spatiotemporal variability in groundwater storage. Finally, the implications for water supply planning were assessed. Mizielinski, M.S. et al., 2014. High-resolution global climate modelling: the UPSCALE project, a large-simulation campaign. Geoscientific Model Development, 7(4), pp.1629-1640.

  7. Balancing energy, development and climate priorities in India. Current trends and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Dhar, S.; Halsnaes, K.

    2007-09-01

    This report gives a short introduction to the project: Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing countries. Furthermore, the report analyses Indian energy, development and climate change, followed by an assessment of cross-country results that gives a range of key indicators of the relationship between economic growth, energy, and local and global pollutants. The focus is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. (BA)

  8. Analysis of Current and Future SPEI Droughts in the La Plata Basin Based on Results from the Regional Eta Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sordo-Ward

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We identified and analysed droughts in the La Plata Basin (divided into seven sub-basins for the current period (1961–2005 and estimated their expected evolution under future climate projections for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. Future climate projections were analysed from results of the Eta Regional Climate Model (grid resolution of approximately 10 km forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES over the La Plata basin, and considering a RCP4.5 emission scenario. Within each sub-basin, we particularly focused our drought analyses on croplands and grasslands, due to their economic relevance. The three-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI3 was used for drought identification and characterization. Droughts were evaluated in terms of time (percentage of time from the total length of each climate scenario, space (percentage of total area, and severity (SPEI3 values of cells characterized by cropland and grassland for each sub-basin and climate scenario. Drought-severity–area–frequency curves were developed to quantitatively relate the frequency distribution of drought occurrence to drought severity and area. For the period 2011–2040, droughts dominate the northern sub-basins, whereas alternating wet and short dry periods dominate the southern sub-basins. Wet climate spread from south to north within the La Plata Basin as more distant future scenarios were analysed, due to both a greater number of wet periods and fewer droughts. The area of each sub-basin affected by drought in all climate scenarios was highly varied temporally and spatially. The likelihood of the occurrence of droughts differed significantly between the studied cover types in the Lower Paraguay sub-basin, being higher for cropland than for grassland. Mainly in the Upper Paraguay and in the Upper Paraná basins the climate projections for all scenarios showed an increase of moderate and severe droughts over large regions

  9. The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Zhenong [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA; Zhuang, Qianlai [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA; Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN 47907 USA; Wang, Jiali [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA; Archontoulis, Sotirios V. [Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames IA 50011 USA; Zobel, Zachary [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana, Urbana IL 61801 USA; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. [Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont IL 60439 USA

    2017-01-25

    Heat and drought stresses are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Here we present a study that quantified the current and future yield responses of US rainfed maize and soybean to climate extremes, and for the first time characterized spatial shifts in the relative importance of temperature, heat and drought stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), driven by the high-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model downscaled future climate scenarios at two time slices (1995-2005 and 2085-2094). Our results show that climatic yield gaps and interannual variability are greater in the core production area than in the remaining US by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of change is highly dependent on the current climate sensitivity and vulnerability. Elevated CO2 partially offsets the climatic yield gaps and reduces interannual yield variability, and effect is more prominent in soybean than in maize. We demonstrate that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize and soybean production, although its dominant role gradually gives way to other impacts of heat extremes. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stressors are characterized by increases in the concurrent stress, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering drought and extreme heat simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management.

  10. Prototyping global Earth System Models at high resolution: Representation of climate, ecosystems, and acidification in Eastern Boundary Currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, J. P.; John, J. G.; Stock, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    The world's major Eastern Boundary Currents (EBC) such as the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) are critically important areas for global fisheries. Computational limitations have divided past EBC modeling into two types: high resolution regional approaches that resolve the strong meso-scale structures involved, and coarse global approaches that represent the large scale context for EBCs, but only crudely resolve only the largest scales of their manifestation. These latter global studies have illustrated the complex mechanisms involved in the climate change and acidification response in these regions, with the CCLME response dominated not by local adjustments but large scale reorganization of ocean circulation through remote forcing of water-mass supply pathways. While qualitatively illustrating the limitations of regional high resolution studies in long term projection, these studies lack the ability to robustly quantify change because of the inability of these models to represent the baseline meso-scale structures of EBCs. In the present work, we compare current generation coarse resolution (one degree) and a prototype next generation high resolution (1/10 degree) Earth System Models (ESMs) from NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in representing the four major EBCs. We review the long-known temperature biases that the coarse models suffer in being unable to represent the timing and intensity of upwelling-favorable winds, along with lack of representation of the observed high chlorophyll and biological productivity resulting from this upwelling. In promising contrast, we show that the high resolution prototype is capable of representing not only the overall meso-scale structure in physical and biogeochemical fields, but also the appropriate offshore extent of temperature anomalies and other EBC characteristics. Results for chlorophyll were mixed; while high resolution chlorophyll in EBCs were strongly enhanced over the coarse resolution

  11. Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Current climate and response to increasing atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutowski, W.J.; Gutzler, D.S.; Portman, D.; Wang, W.C.

    1988-04-01

    The surface energy balance simulated by state-of-the-art general circulation models at GFDL, GISS and NCAR for climates with current levels of atmospheric CO 2 concentration (control climate) and with twice the current levels. The work is part of an effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to assess climate simulations produced by these models. The surface energy balance enables us to diagnose differences between models in surface temperature climatology and sensitivity to doubling CO 2 in terms of the processes that control surface temperature. Our analysis compares the simulated balances by averaging the fields of interest over a hierarchy of spatial domains ranging from the entire globe down to regions a few hundred kilometers across

  12. Music-Evoked Emotions—Current Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Hans-Eckhardt

    2017-01-01

    The present study is focused on a review of the current state of investigating music-evoked emotions experimentally, theoretically and with respect to their therapeutic potentials. After a concise historical overview and a schematic of the hearing mechanisms, experimental studies on music listeners and on music performers are discussed, starting with the presentation of characteristic musical stimuli and the basic features of tomographic imaging of emotional activation in the brain, such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and positron emission tomography (PET), which offer high spatial resolution in the millimeter range. The progress in correlating activation imaging in the brain to the psychological understanding of music-evoked emotion is demonstrated and some prospects for future research are outlined. Research in psychoneuroendocrinology and molecular markers is reviewed in the context of music-evoked emotions and the results indicate that the research in this area should be intensified. An assessment of studies involving measuring techniques with high temporal resolution down to the 10 ms range, as, e.g., electroencephalography (EEG), event-related brain potentials (ERP), magnetoencephalography (MEG), skin conductance response (SCR), finger temperature, and goose bump development (piloerection) can yield information on the dynamics and kinetics of emotion. Genetic investigations reviewed suggest the heredity transmission of a predilection for music. Theoretical approaches to musical emotion are directed to a unified model for experimental neurological evidence and aesthetic judgment. Finally, the reports on musical therapy are briefly outlined. The study concludes with an outlook on emerging technologies and future research fields. PMID:29225563

  13. Climate policies in China, India and Brazil: current issues and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bellevrat, Elie

    2012-07-01

    Emerging countries will have to tackle different social and economic development challenges in the future, which translate nationally into the concepts of 'harmonious society' in China and 'inclusive growth' in India, and into the Brazilian slogan 'a wealthy country is a country without poverty'. Per capita (current US$), Brazil is more than two times richer than China, which in turn is three times richer than India. This graduation explains the variety of priorities of those countries: reducing inequalities and achieving the development processes in China and Brazil, alleviating poverty and enhancing energy access in India. Furthermore, these countries are increasingly linked internationally, along with the globalization process. Energy security is a key issue for China and India, while Brazil aims at playing a key role on future international energy markets. Emerging economies are progressively laying the foundations for low-carbon development strategies that will depend on their national contexts and priorities. Investments in building and transport infrastructures are increasingly important in all those countries, creating the conditions today for tomorrow's low-carbon economic development. China recently made important resolutions in the framework of its 12. Five-Year Plan, decoupling economic growth from GHG emissions. India has developed eight 'National Missions' on climate change and is now exploring future low-carbon strategies. And Brazil is affirming its position internationally, pushing for innovative 'green growth' concepts, within the framework of the Rio+20 Conference. All countries have already implemented several energy and climate policies and plan to develop them further, through innovative policy institutions and instruments. They are switching progressively from command- and-control to economic instruments. In particular, market-based mechanisms are increasingly used in all countries: mandatory pilot Emission Trading Systems (ETS) in China

  14. CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Ballard, Tristan; Sun, Ge; Jeuland, Marc

    2016-05-01

    Kiremt-season (June-September) precipitation provides a significant water supply for Ethiopia, particularly in the central and northern regions. The response of Kiremt-season precipitation to climate change is thus of great concern to water resource managers. However, the complex processes that control Kiremt-season precipitation challenge the capability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately simulate precipitation amount and variability. This in turn raises questions about their utility for predicting future changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on Kiremt-season precipitation using state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Compared to models with a coarse resolution, high-resolution models (horizontal resolution <2°) can more accurately simulate precipitation, most likely due to their ability to capture precipitation induced by topography. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, these high-resolution models project an increase in precipitation over central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, but a decrease in precipitation over the southern part of the country. Such a dipole pattern is attributable to the intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) in a warmer climate, which influences Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation mainly by modulating atmospheric vertical motion. Diagnosis of the omega equation demonstrates that an intensified NASH increases (decreases) the advection of warm air and positive vorticity into the central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley (southern part of the country), enhancing upward motion over the northern Rift Valley but decreasing elsewhere. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the high-resolution models project an intensification of the NASH by 15 (3 × 105 m2 s-2) geopotential meters (stream function) at the 850-hPa level, contributing to the projected precipitation change over Ethiopia. The

  15. Interactive effects of air pollution and climate change on forest ecosystems in the United States: current understanding and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Mark Fenn; Steven McNulty; Fengming Yuan; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles Driscoll; Tom Meixner

    2013-01-01

    A review of the current status of air pollution and climate change (CC) in the United States from a perspective of their impacts on forest ecosystems is provided. Ambient ozone (O3) and nitrogen (N) deposition have important and widespread ecological impacts in U.S. forests. Effects of sulphurous (S) air pollutants and other trace pollutants have...

  16. Will dragonblood survive the next period of climate change? Current and future potential distribution of Dracaena cinnabari (Socotra, Yemen)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attorre, F.; Francesconi, F.; Taleb, N.; Scholte, P.; Saed, A.; Alfo, M.; Bruno, F.

    2007-01-01

    The potential impact of climate change on Dracaena cinnabari, a spectacular relict of the Mio-Pliocene Laurasian subtropical forest in Socotra (Yemen), was analysed. Current distribution, abundance and vertical structure of D. cinnabari populations were assessed with 74 plots in nine remnant areas.

  17. Current meter data from moored current meter casts in the TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) as part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) project from 1988-05-24 to 1989-05-26 (NODC Accession 9100207)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter data were collected using moored current meter casts in the TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) from 24 May 1988 to 26 May 1989. Data were submitted by...

  18. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  19. Silvicultural approaches to maintain forest health and productivity under current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul D. Anderson; Daniel J. Chmura

    2009-01-01

    Climate modeling based on a variety of scenarios for the Pacific Northwest suggests that over the next century temperatures may increase and that the abundance of summer precipitation may decline. Historically, climate changes at the century scale have been accompanied by adjustments in species population sizes and the composition of vegetation communities....

  20. Climate Change Education: Preparing Future and Current Business Leaders--A Workshop Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storksdieck, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses challenges as well as opportunities for businesses and, broadly speaking for the entire economy. Businesses will be challenged to provide services or products with less harmful influence on the climate; respond to a changing policy, regulatory, and market environment; and provide new services and products to help address the…

  1. Climate change, water stress, conflict and migration : Taking stock of current insights through a vulnerability lens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermans, L.M.

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing awareness in international policy circles that climate change may be a driver of increased migration flows. In addition to political refugees and economic migrants, climate change-induced migration and environmental migrants are increasingly recognized as categories in human

  2. Current measurement studies around the Cesme Peninsula (Turkey)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taspinar, N.

    1989-04-01

    In order to design coastal structures and marine vehicles safely, it is required to know current climate which shows the variation of the current characteristics with time. There are a wide variety of current meters designed to measure water flow today. Each current meter is capable of recording the influence of mooring arrangement. Here we describe sea water temperatures, salinities and current velocities at offshore of Akburun, Tatlicak Burnu, Kalem Burnu and Kizil Burun areas in Cesme Peninsula 27 August, 1986 to 19 November, 1986. At the end of the investigations, measured significant maximum and average current velocities have been routinely analysed with micro-computers and also the percentages of current velocity have been calculated. (author). 8 refs, 6 figs, 4 tabs

  3. Climate change studies and the human sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, Poul; Winiwarter, Verena

    2017-09-01

    Policy makers have made repeated calls for integration of human and natural sciences in the field of climate change. Serious multidisciplinary attempts began already in the 1950s. Progress has certainly been made in understanding the role of humans in the planetary system. New perspectives have clarified policy advice, and three insights are singled out in the paper: the critique of historicism, the distinction between benign and wicked problems, and the cultural critique of the 'myths of nature'. Nevertheless, analysis of the IPCC Assessment Reports indicates that integration is skewed towards a particular dimension of human sciences (economics) and major insights from cultural theory and historical analysis have not made it into climate science. A number of relevant disciplines are almost absent in the composition of authorship. Nevertheless, selective assumptions and arguments are made about e.g. historical findings in key documents. In conclusion, we suggest to seek remedies for the lack of historical scholarship in the IPCC reports. More effort at science-policy exchange is needed, and an Integrated Platform to channel humanities and social science expertise for climate change research might be one promising way.

  4. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  5. Climate change and international tourism: A simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamilton, J.M.; Maddison, D.J.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2005-01-01

    The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here, a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for

  6. The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Wang, Jiali; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Zobel, Zachary; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R

    2017-07-01

    Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high-resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995-2004 and 2085-2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in the US Midwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize production under RCP4.5 and soybean production under both RCP scenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize under RCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Modeling the prospects for climatic change: current state-of-the-art and implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kellogg, W. M.

    1980-04-04

    It has been increasingly suggested that the world's climate is going to change in the next several decades, primarily as a result of anthropogenic perturbations to the global carbon cycle brought about by fossil fuel burning and large-scale deforestation. In order to cope with these future climatic changes, it is necessary that tools be developed to predict how complex systems respond to a given change of conditions. This report summarizes the status of our ability to model the planetary system that determines the climate. (ACR)

  8. A Case Study: Climate Change Decision Support for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, Flint Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, G. N.; McMahon, G.; Friesen, N.; Carney, S.

    2011-12-01

    Riverside Technology, inc. has developed a Climate Change Decision Support System (DSS) to provide water managers with a tool to explore a range of current Global Climate Model (GCM) projections to evaluate their potential impacts on streamflow and the reliability of future water supplies. The system was developed as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project. The DSS uses downscaled GCM data as input to small-scale watershed models to produce time series of projected undepleted streamflow for various emission scenarios and GCM simulations. Until recently, water managers relied on historical streamflow data for water resources planning. In many parts of the country, great effort has been put into estimating long-term historical undepleted streamflow accounting for regulation, diversions, and return flows to support planning and water rights administration. In some cases, longer flow records have been constructed using paleohydrologic data in an attempt to capture climate variability beyond what is evident during the observed historical record. Now, many water managers are recognizing that historical data may not be representative of an uncertain climate future, and they have begun to explore the use of climate projections in their water resources planning. The Climate Change DSS was developed to support water managers in planning by accounting for both climate variability and potential climate change. In order to use the information for impact analysis, the projected streamflow time series can be exported and substituted for the historical streamflow data traditionally applied in their system operations models for water supply planning. This paper presents a case study in which climate-adjusted flows are coupled with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ResSim model for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint (ACF) River basins. The study demonstrates how climate scenarios can be used

  9. A CBO Study: The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2003-01-01

    This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study-prepared at the request of the Ranking Member of the House Committee on Science-presents an overview of issues related to climate change, focusing primarily on its economic aspects...

  10. Current and future assessments of soil erosion by water on the Tibetan Plateau based on RUSLE and CMIP5 climate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Hongfen; Liang, Zongzheng; Chen, Songchao; Liu, Yong; Viscarra Rossel, Raphael A; Chappell, Adrian; Yu, Wu; Shi, Zhou

    2018-04-18

    Soil erosion by water is accelerated by a warming climate and negatively impacts water security and ecological conservation. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced warming at a rate approximately twice that observed globally, and heavy precipitation events lead to an increased risk of erosion. In this study, we assessed current erosion on the TP and predicted potential soil erosion by water in 2050. The study was conducted in three steps. During the first step, we used the Revised Universal Soil Equation (RUSLE), publicly available data, and the most recent earth observations to derive estimates of annual erosion from 2002 to 2016 on the TP at 1-km resolution. During the second step, we used a multiple linear regression (MLR) model and a set of climatic covariates to predict rainfall erosivity on the TP in 2050. The MLR was used to establish the relationship between current rainfall erosivity data and a set of current climatic and other covariates. The coefficients of the MLR were generalised with climate covariates for 2050 derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models to estimate rainfall erosivity in 2050. During the third step, soil erosion by water in 2050 was predicted using rainfall erosivity in 2050 and other erosion factors. The results show that the mean annual soil erosion rate on the TP under current conditions is 2.76tha -1 y -1 , which is equivalent to an annual soil loss of 559.59×10 6 t. Our 2050 projections suggested that erosion on the TP will increase to 3.17tha -1 y -1 and 3.91tha -1 y -1 under conditions represented by RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The current assessment and future prediction of soil erosion by water on the TP should be valuable for environment protection and soil conservation in this unique region and elsewhere. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Changes of the climate induced by trace gases. Current state of research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H

    1987-02-01

    Any attempt of predicting climatic changes is a very different task, because it requires good insight into and knowledge of a complex system whose components respond very differently in terms of time. Hence there remain many uncertainties in efforts towards 'predicting' climatic changes considering the enhancing greenhouse effect. As with all environmental problems, the best reaction is to conserve resources, and systematically explore the interactions. Reducing the CO/sub 2/, for instance, will be highly awarded. (orig./HSCH).

  12. Global climate change: a synopsis of current activities in the Office of Fossil Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    South, D.W.; Kane, R.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on the US DOE Office of Fossil Energy investigation and monitoring of several aspects of global climate change as it relates to fossil fuels. The paper consists of the overheads from the presentation. The topics of this paper include greenhouse gases from fossil fuels, scientific uncertainties, legislation and protocols, mitigation strategies and policies, energy and economic impacts, and the role of clean coal technologies and fossil fuels in global climate change

  13. A Web-Based Geovisual Analytical System for Climate Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenlong Li

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate studies involve petabytes of spatiotemporal datasets that are produced and archived at distributed computing resources. Scientists need an intuitive and convenient tool to explore the distributed spatiotemporal data. Geovisual analytical tools have the potential to provide such an intuitive and convenient method for scientists to access climate data, discover the relationships between various climate parameters, and communicate the results across different research communities. However, implementing a geovisual analytical tool for complex climate data in a distributed environment poses several challenges. This paper reports our research and development of a web-based geovisual analytical system to support the analysis of climate data generated by climate model. Using the ModelE developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS as an example, we demonstrate that the system is able to (1 manage large volume datasets over the Internet; (2 visualize 2D/3D/4D spatiotemporal data; (3 broker various spatiotemporal statistical analyses for climate research; and (4 support interactive data analysis and knowledge discovery. This research also provides an example for managing, disseminating, and analyzing Big Data in the 21st century.

  14. A longitudinal study of an intervention to improve road safety climate: climate as an organizational boundary spanner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naveh, Eitan; Katz-Navon, Tal

    2015-01-01

    This study presents and tests an intervention to enhance organizational climate and expands existing conceptualization of organizational climate to include its influence on employee behaviors outside the organization's physical boundaries. In addition, by integrating the literatures of climate and work-family interface, the study explored climate spillover and crossover from work to the home domain. Focusing on an applied practical problem within organizations, we investigated the example of road safety climate and employees' and their families' driving, using a longitudinal study design of road safety intervention versus control groups. Results demonstrated that the intervention increased road safety climate and decreased the number of traffic violation tickets and that road safety climate mediated the relationship between the intervention and the number of traffic violation tickets. Road safety climate spilled over to the family domain but did not cross over to influence family members' driving. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  15. The Current Canon in British Romantics Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkin, Harriet Kramer

    1991-01-01

    Describes and reports on a survey of 164 U.S. universities to ascertain what is taught as the current canon of British Romantic literature. Asserts that the canon may now include Mary Shelley with the former standard six major male Romantic poets, indicating a significant emergence of a feminist perspective on British Romanticism in the classroom.…

  16. Comparing modeled and observed changes in mineral dust transport and deposition to Antarctica between the Last Glacial Maximum and current climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albani, Samuel [University of Siena, Graduate School in Polar Sciences, Siena (Italy); University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Environmental Sciences, Milano (Italy); Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Mahowald, Natalie M. [Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Delmonte, Barbara; Maggi, Valter [University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Environmental Sciences, Milano (Italy); Winckler, Gisela [Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, NY (United States)

    2012-05-15

    Mineral dust aerosols represent an active component of the Earth's climate system, by interacting with radiation directly, and by modifying clouds and biogeochemistry. Mineral dust from polar ice cores over the last million years can be used as paleoclimate proxy, and provide unique information about climate variability, as changes in dust deposition at the core sites can be due to changes in sources, transport and/or deposition locally. Here we present results from a study based on climate model simulations using the Community Climate System Model. The focus of this work is to analyze simulated differences in the dust concentration, size distribution and sources in current climate conditions and during the Last Glacial Maximum at specific ice core locations in Antarctica, and compare with available paleodata. Model results suggest that South America is the most important source for dust deposited in Antarctica in current climate, but Australia is also a major contributor and there is spatial variability in the relative importance of the major dust sources. During the Last Glacial Maximum the dominant source in the model was South America, because of the increased activity of glaciogenic dust sources in Southern Patagonia-Tierra del Fuego and the Southernmost Pampas regions, as well as an increase in transport efficiency southward. Dust emitted from the Southern Hemisphere dust source areas usually follow zonal patterns, but southward flow towards Antarctica is located in specific areas characterized by southward displacement of air masses. Observations and model results consistently suggest a spatially variable shift in dust particle sizes. This is due to a combination of relatively reduced en route wet removal favouring a generalized shift towards smaller particles, and on the other hand to an enhanced relative contribution of dry coarse particle deposition in the Last Glacial Maximum. (orig.)

  17. Ecosystem size structure response to 21st century climate projection: large fish abundance decreases in the central North Pacific and increases in the California Current.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A; Polovina, Jeffrey J; Dunne, John P; Blanchard, Julia L

    2013-03-01

    Output from an earth system model is paired with a size-based food web model to investigate the effects of climate change on the abundance of large fish over the 21st century. The earth system model, forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special report on emission scenario A2, combines a coupled climate model with a biogeochemical model including major nutrients, three phytoplankton functional groups, and zooplankton grazing. The size-based food web model includes linkages between two size-structured pelagic communities: primary producers and consumers. Our investigation focuses on seven sites in the North Pacific, each highlighting a specific aspect of projected climate change, and includes top-down ecosystem depletion through fishing. We project declines in large fish abundance ranging from 0 to 75.8% in the central North Pacific and increases of up to 43.0% in the California Current (CC) region over the 21st century in response to change in phytoplankton size structure and direct physiological effects. We find that fish abundance is especially sensitive to projected changes in large phytoplankton density and our model projects changes in the abundance of large fish being of the same order of magnitude as changes in the abundance of large phytoplankton. Thus, studies that address only climate-induced impacts to primary production without including changes to phytoplankton size structure may not adequately project ecosystem responses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  18. The regionalization of climate scenarios: towards impact studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cariolle, D.

    1999-01-01

    This article describes the different types of climate numerical models and their use to obtain scenarios for climate change due to the greenhouse gas increase. Results from global or meso-scale models are given. They illustrate the existing ways of representing climatic conditions at global and regional scales. Combined with statistical approaches based for example on the techniques of analogues, their use gives a coherent strategy going from global scale numerical simulations to the study of impacts at a local scale. In the future the increase of computer power should allow a better description of the small processes and a wider range of impact studies on natural ecosystems and various economic sectors. The results of these studies will be very useful to define a coherent policy in response to observed or predicted climate changes. (author)

  19. Sustainable development and climate change: Lessons from country studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Shukla, P.; Garg, A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustainable development has been suggested as a framework for integrating development and climate change policies in developing countries. Mainstreaming climate change into sustainable development policies would allow these countries to achieve their development goals while addressing climate...... change. A number of research programmes have investigated how potential synergies could be achieved at national level and what kind of trade-offs between the various aspects of sustainable development have to be faced. An overview of these studies is provided, focusing on national case studies....... The energy and transportation sectors are covered in many studies, but some attention is also given to the infrastructure sector and water supply. Most existing development policies will not lead to a sustainable development pattern, since they insufficiently address climate change. However, good...

  20. Functional and phylogenetic relatedness in temporary wetland invertebrates: current macroecological patterns and implications for future climatic change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruhí, Albert; Boix, Dani; Gascón, Stéphanie; Sala, Jordi; Batzer, Darold P

    2013-01-01

    In freshwater ecosystems, species compositions are known to be determined hierarchically by large to small‑scale environmental factors, based on the biological traits of the organisms. However, in ephemeral habitats this heuristic framework remains largely untested. Although temporary wetland faunas are constrained by a local filter (i.e., desiccation), we propose its magnitude may still depend on large-scale climate characteristics. If this is true, climate should be related to the degree of functional and taxonomic relatedness of invertebrate communities inhabiting seasonal wetlands. We tested this hypothesis in two ways. First, based on 52 biological traits for invertebrates, we conducted a case study to explore functional trends among temperate seasonal wetlands differing in the harshness (i.e., dryness) of their dry season. After finding evidence of trait filtering, we addressed whether it could be generalized across a broader climatic scale. To this end, a meta-analysis (225 seasonal wetlands spread across broad climatic categories: Arid, Temperate, and Cold) allowed us to identify whether an equivalent climate-dependent pattern of trait richness was consistent between the Nearctic and the Western Palearctic. Functional overlap of invertebrates increased from mild (i.e., Temperate) to harsher climates (i.e., Arid and Cold), and phylogenetic clustering (using taxonomy as a surrogate) was highest in Arid and lowest in Temperate wetlands. We show that, (i) as has been described in streams, higher relatedness than would be expected by chance is generally observed in seasonal wetland invertebrate communities; and (ii) this relatedness is not constant but climate-dependent, with the climate under which a given seasonal wetland is located determining the functional overlap and the phylogenetic clustering of the community. Finally, using a space-for-time substitution approach we suggest our results may anticipate how the invertebrate biodiversity embedded in these

  1. Anticipating impacts of climate change on fish habitat to support decisionmaking in hydropower licensing: a climate risk study for the Hiram Dam, Saco River, ME

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagron, C. S.; Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issues licenses for non-federal hydropower projects through its Integrated Licensing Process (ILP). Through this multi-stage, multi-year decision process, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) can request studies needed to prescribe license conditions to mitigate dams' effects on trust resources, e.g. fish passages and flow requirements. NMFS must understand the combined effects of hydropower projects and climate change to fulfill its mandates to maintain fisheries and protected species. Although 30-50 year hydropower licenses and renewals are within the time frame of anticipated risks from changing climate, FERC has consistently rejected NMFS' climate study requests, stating climate science is "too uncertain," and therefore not actionable. The ILP is an opportunity to incorporate climate change risks in this decision process, and to make decisions now to avoid failures later in the system regarding both hydropower reliability (the concern of FERC and the applicant) and ecosystem health (NMFS's concern). NMFS has partnered with climate scientists at the ESRL Physical Sciences Division to co-produce a climate study request for the relicensing of the Hiram Project on the Saco River in Southern Maine. The Saco hosts Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) runs which are not currently self-sustaining. This presentation will describe basin-to-basin variability in both historic river analyses (Hydro-Climate Data Network, HCDN) and projected hydrologic responses of New England rivers to climate forcings using statewide Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) demonstrate the need to develop Saco-specific watershed models. Furthermore, although methods for projecting fishery-relevant metrics (heat waves, flood annual exceedance probabilities) have been proven in nearby basins, this modeling has not been conducted at fishery-relevant thresholds. Climate study requests are an example of bridging between science and

  2. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathewson, Paul D; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A; Briscoe, Natalie J; Kearney, Michael; Yahn, Jeremiah M; Porter, Warren P

    2017-03-01

    How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

  3. Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T.; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.

    2017-01-01

    How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect

  4. Mexican plums (Spondias spp.): their current distribution and potential distribution under climate change scenarios for Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Arce-Romero, Antonio Rafael; Monterroso-Rivas, Alejandro Ismael; Gómez-Díaz, Jesús David; Cruz-León, Artemio

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Plums (Spondias spp.) are species native to Mexico with adaptive, nutritional and ethnobotanical advantages. The aim of this study was to assess the current and potential distribution of two species of Mexican plum: Spondias purpurea L. and Spondias mombin L. The method applied was ecological niche modeling in Maxent software, which has been used in Mexico with good results. In fieldwork, information on the presence of these species in the country was collected. In addition, environm...

  5. Regional climate scenarios - A study on precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesselbjerg Christensen, J.; Boessing Christensen, O.

    2001-01-01

    A set of nested climate change simulations for the Nordic region and Denmark has been revisited. In the present work we have re-examined the results of CCMB and MBC with special emphasis on precipitation intensity frequencies, in particular the more extreme part of the frequency distribution. It has been demonstrated that the role of extreme precipitation events appears to be more realistically described in a high-resolution model, in terms of numerical agreement as well as seasonal variation. This is mainly due to a better simulation of deep low-pressure systems and mesoscale circulation. Generally, the analysis has confirmed the results from CCMB, but furthermore a resolution effect has been identified which seems essential to the understanding of climate change effects on the extreme end of the precipitation intensity distribution. In order to analyse the role of the model resolution we have aggregated both the nested model data and observational records to the GCM grid from the driving AOGCM. It was found that, in spite of changes in absolute numbers, the seasonal behaviour of decay constants does not change appreciably because of the aggregation. The RCM results show a seasonal behaviour very similar to an observed data set. It is therefore concluded that the GCM has an unrealistic simulation of the dependence of heavy precipitation on climate, as manifested in seasonal variation. In contrast, the regional simulations remain close to observation in this respect. Furthermore, they agree on a conclusion that extreme precipitation generally scales with average precipitation (no significant change in decay constants were detected), but that crucial summer season may be an exception, exhibiting an anomalous increase in heavy precipitation due to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. The analysis has only been performed over Denmark due to lack of daily observational data for other regions. It is, however, necessary to extend the work to other areas, for instance

  6. Experimental studies of coaxial plasma gun current

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, D.W.

    1988-01-01

    In this investigation of a coaxial plasma gun, plasma sheath currents and related behavior are examined. Plasma behavior in the gun affects gun characteristics. Plasma gun applications are determined by the plasma behavior. The AFWL PUFF capacitor bank (72 μF, 29 nH, 120 kV) drives the plasma gun using a deuterium fill gas. The gas breakdown site is isolated from the dielectric/vacuum interface in the AFWL system. Two gas values deliver gas in the system. The first delivers gas from the gun breech and the second optional valve delivers gas to the gun muzzle. Currents and voltages are measured by Rogowski coils, B probes and capacitive voltage probes. A O-D slug model is used to predict the current, inductance, gun voltage and plasma sheath velocity. The slug model assumes the sheath transits the gun with all mass in the sheath. In the snowplow mode, the plasma sheath is thin with a sharp current rise and drop. Our system operated in a transition mode between the snowplow and deflagration modes with early snowplow behavior and late deflagration behavior. Neutrons are produced in a plasma pinch at the gun muzzle, indicating snowplow behavior. The slug theory models overall gun behavior to experimental accuracy. Experimental results are compared to four theories for plasma sheath velocities: the Alfven collisionally limited model, the Rosenbluth model, the Fishbine saturated model and a single particle drift model. Experimental velocities vary from 10 5 to 10 6 m/s. Only the single particle drift and the slug model calculations are of the right magnitude (8 x 10 5 m/s). The Fishbine and the Rosenbluth models predict slower velocities (2 x 10 5 m/s). The Alfven model is not applicable to this system

  7. Assessing the metrics of climate change. Current methods and future possibilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuglestveit, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Godal, Odd; Sausen, Robert; Shine, Keith P.; Skodvin, Tora

    2001-07-01

    With the principle of comprehensiveness embedded in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Art. 3), a multi-gas abatement strategy with emphasis also on non-CO2 greenhouse gases as targets for reduction and control measures has been adopted in the international climate regime. In the Kyoto Protocol, the comprehensive approach is made operative as the aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of six specified greenhouse gases or groups of gases (Art. 3). With this operationalisation, the emissions of a set of greenhouse gases with very different atmospheric lifetimes and radiative properties are transformed into one common unit - CO2 equivalents. This transformation is based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP) index, which in turn is based on the concept of radiative forcing. The GWP metric and its application in policy making has been debated, and several other alternative concepts have been suggested. In this paper, we review existing and alternative metrics of climate change, with particular emphasis on radiative forcing and GWPs, in terms of their scientific performance. This assessment focuses on questions such as the climate impact (end point) against which gases are weighted; the extent to which and how temporality is included, both with regard to emission control and with regard to climate impact; how cost issues are dealt with; and the sensitivity of the metrics to various assumptions. It is concluded that the radiative forcing concept is a robust and useful metric of the potential climatic impact of various agents and that there are prospects for improvement by weighing different forcings according to their effectiveness. We also find that although the GWP concept is associated with serious shortcomings, it retains advantages over any of the proposed alternatives in terms of political feasibility. Alternative metrics, however, make a significant contribution to addressing important issues, and this contribution should be taken

  8. Assessing the metrics of climate change. Current methods and future possibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuglestveit, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Godal, Odd; Sausen, Robert; Shine, Keith P.; Skodvin, Tora

    2001-01-01

    With the principle of comprehensiveness embedded in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Art. 3), a multi-gas abatement strategy with emphasis also on non-CO2 greenhouse gases as targets for reduction and control measures has been adopted in the international climate regime. In the Kyoto Protocol, the comprehensive approach is made operative as the aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of six specified greenhouse gases or groups of gases (Art. 3). With this operationalisation, the emissions of a set of greenhouse gases with very different atmospheric lifetimes and radiative properties are transformed into one common unit - CO2 equivalents. This transformation is based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP) index, which in turn is based on the concept of radiative forcing. The GWP metric and its application in policy making has been debated, and several other alternative concepts have been suggested. In this paper, we review existing and alternative metrics of climate change, with particular emphasis on radiative forcing and GWPs, in terms of their scientific performance. This assessment focuses on questions such as the climate impact (end point) against which gases are weighted; the extent to which and how temporality is included, both with regard to emission control and with regard to climate impact; how cost issues are dealt with; and the sensitivity of the metrics to various assumptions. It is concluded that the radiative forcing concept is a robust and useful metric of the potential climatic impact of various agents and that there are prospects for improvement by weighing different forcings according to their effectiveness. We also find that although the GWP concept is associated with serious shortcomings, it retains advantages over any of the proposed alternatives in terms of political feasibility. Alternative metrics, however, make a significant contribution to addressing important issues, and this contribution should be taken

  9. The Study of Factor Structure and Reliability of an Abbreviated School Climate Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Cody; Liu, Ying; Berkowitz, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    The concept of school climate has been an important variable in research on quality of school life and student learning. One of the challenges in such a research effort is to develop instruments that could effectively and efficiently measure the construct. The purpose of the current study was to examine the factor structure and reliability of an…

  10. Why Classroom Climate Matters for Children High in Anxious Solitude: A Study of Differential Susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Kathleen; Coplan, Robert J.

    2018-01-01

    The goal of the current study was to examine the complex links among anxious solitude, classroom climate, engagement, achievement, and gender. In particular, drawing upon the differential susceptibility hypothesis (Belsky, 1997), we investigated if children high in anxious solitude were particularly sensitive and responsive to the classroom…

  11. Criteria for selecting a CO2/climate change region of study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cushman, R.; Easterling, W.; Rosenberg, N.; Malone, T.; Edmonds, J.; Scott, M.; Stoke, G.

    1989-01-01

    This effort has three near-term goals: (1) to develop robust methods of analysis including the analysis of uncertainty; (2) to develop information systems to support CO 2 /climate change analysis; and (3) to develop channels of communication among researchers and between researchers and parties potentially affected by CO 2 /climate change. Initially, the program will focus on a single region of the United States, employ a historical analog climate, and analyze the interactions of all of the resources resident within that region as they might evolve under current conditions and under evolving CO 2 /climate change over the next 50 years. Five elements of the program will address the issues of: Analysis, Information Systems, Uncertainty, Knowledge Transfer, and Coordination. This paper will give special attention to the analytical framework and in particular to the criteria for selecting a region for study. 19 refs., 2 figs

  12. What incentives to climate change mitigation through harvested wood products in the current french policy framework? (Summary). Climate Report no. 47

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deheza, Mariana; N'Goran, Carmen; Bellassen, Valentin

    2014-09-01

    Beyond the important role that forests play in the fight against climate change through the sequestration of carbon in their biomass, wood products also contribute to climate change through three channels: - Material substitution: the manufacturing of wood products being less energy intensive allows to avoid carbon emissions from the processing of other alternative materials (eg. concrete, steel, etc); - Energy substitution: achieved by the generation of energy from wood combustion replacing other fossil fuels. - Carbon sequestration in the wood products: wood products sequester carbon during their whole life span until their decomposition. This Climate Report identifies French policies that have an impact on climate change mitigation by wood products through these three mitigation channels. Our analysis asserts that similarly to the context at the EU level, the current national policy framework incentives are mostly directed to the 'energy wood' sector. These incentives include fiscal and financial instruments such as: - The heat fund ('fonds chaleur'), which subsidizes the production of renewable heat particularly from biomass; - The zero interest rate eco-loans ('eco-pret a taux zero') and the Sustainable development tax credit ('credit d'impot developpement durable (CIDD)') which partly subsidize wood heating; - Reduced VAT on renewable heat purchases. The use of wood as a material is currently less encouraged, at least on the financial side: the few devices that support it are rarely binding and mobilize limited resources. Future measures planned under the National Action Plan for the forest-based sector and the upcoming law for the future of agriculture and forestry ('Loi d'avenir pour l'agriculture et la foret') could slightly re-balance this situation. (authors)

  13. An Assessment of Regional Water Resources and Agricultural Sustainability in the Mississippi River Alluvial Aquifer System of Mississippi and Arkansas Under Current and Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigby, J.; Reba, M.

    2011-12-01

    The Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Plain is a highly productive agricultural region for rice, soy beans, and cotton that depends heavily on irrigation. Development of the Mississippi River Alluvial Aquifer (MRAA), one of the more prolific agricultural aquifers in the country, has traditionally been the primary source for irrigation in the region yielding over 1,100 Mgal/day to irrigation wells. Increasingly, the realities of changing climate and rapidly declining water tables have highlighted the necessity for new water management practices. Tail-water recovery and reuse is a rapidly expanding practice due in part to the efforts and cost-sharing of the NRCS, but regional studies of the potential for such practices to alleviate groundwater mining under current and future climate are lacking. While regional studies of aquifer geology have long been available, including assessments of regional groundwater flow, much about the aquifer is still not well understood including controls on recharge rates, a crucial component of water management design. We review the trends in regional availability of surface and groundwater resources, their current status, and the effects of recent changes in management practices on groundwater decline in Mississippi and Arkansas. Global and regional climate projections are used to assess scenarios of sustainable aquifer use under current land use and management along with the potential for more widely practiced surface water capture and reuse to alleviate groundwater decline. Finally, we highlight crucial knowledge gaps and challenges associated with the development of water management practices for sustainable agricultural use in the region.

  14. Climate related diseases. Current regional variability and projections to the year 2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Błażejczyk Krzysztof

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The health of individuals and societies depends on different factors including atmospheric conditions which influence humans in direct and indirect ways. The paper presents regional variability of some climate related diseases (CRD in Poland: salmonellosis intoxications, Lyme boreliosis, skin cancers (morbidity and mortality, influenza, overcooling deaths, as well as respiratory and circulatory mortality. The research consisted of two stages: 1 statistical modelling basing on past data and 2 projections of CRD for three SRES scenarios of climate change (A1B, A2, B1 to the year 2100. Several simple and multiply regression models were found for the relationships between climate variables and CRD. The models were applied to project future levels of CRD. At the end of 21st century we must expect increase in: circulatory mortality, Lyme boreliosis infections and skin cancer morbidity and mortality. There is also projected decrease in: respiratory mortality, overcooling deaths and influenza infections.

  15. Climate change and climate variability impacts on rainfed agricultural activities and possible adaptation measures. A Mexican case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conde, C.; Ferrer, R. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico Circuito Exterior, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)]. E-mail: e-mail: conde@servidor.unam.mx; Orozco, S. [Escuela de Agrobiologia, Universidad Autonoma de Tlaxcala, Tlaxcala (Mexico)

    2006-07-15

    Climate extreme events (such as those associated to strong El Nino events) highly affect Mexican agriculture, since more than sixty percent of it is rainfed. The basic crop cultivated is maize, which is still the main source of nutrients for a large portion of the rural population in the country. Within the project Capacity Building for Stage II Adaptation to Climate Change in Central America, Mexico and Cuba, we analyze the strategies developed by maize producers in the central region of the country to cope with climatic adverse events. Impact on rainfed maize due to climate variability and climate change conditions are studied using a crop simulation model. Several adaptation measures can be evaluated using that model. However, the effect of other stressors must be considered in an assessment of the adaptive capacity of small farmers to climate variability and change. Key stakeholders' involvement in the region helped us to decide which of the adaptive measures could be viable under the current conditions and under future climatic conditions. The construction of greenhouses, the use of compost, and dripping irrigation, were some of the techniques selected with the participation of the stakeholders. The enthusiastic responses to these measures allow us to consider that they can prevail in the future, under climate change conditions. However, the adaptation to climate change includes -besides the stated techniques- the generation of the capacities to cope with climatic adverse events, that is, to enhance the adaptive capacities to climate change among the key stakeholders. [Spanish] Los eventos climaticos extremos (como los asociados con eventos fuertes de El Nino) afectan de manera importante a la agricultura mexicana, ya que mas del sesenta por ciento de ella es de temporal, esto es, depende fundamentalmente de una buena temporada de lluvias para producir. El cultivo que se siembra es basicamente maiz, que todavia es la principal fuente de nutrientes para

  16. Representing climate change on public service television: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debrett, Mary

    2017-05-01

    Publicly funded broadcasters with a track record in science programming would appear ideally placed to represent climate change to the lay public. Free from the constraints of vested interests and the economic imperative, public service providers are better equipped to represent the scientific, social and economic aspects of climate change than commercial media, where ownership conglomeration, corporate lobbyists and online competition have driven increasingly tabloid coverage with an emphasis on controversy. This prime-time snapshot of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's main television channel explores how the structural/rhetorical conventions of three established public service genres - a science programme, a documentary and a live public affairs talk show - impact on the representation of anthropogenic climate change. The study findings note implications for public trust, and discuss possibilities for innovation in the interests of better public understanding of climate change.

  17. Applicability of the Organisational Climate Description Questionnaire - Rutgers Elementary: a South African case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D Vos

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Organisational Climate Description Questionnaire - Rutgers Elementary (OCDQ - RE was used to determine the current organizational climate of primary schools in North-West Province, South Africa. This questionnaire evaluates the actions of principals and educators; the current organizational climate in primary schools can be determined from the results. A quantitative research approach, with 904 teachers from 68 schools, was used to determine the applicability of the measuring instrument. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses revealed that certain items measuring directive behaviour in the OCDQ-RE grouped with supportive behaviour of the principal. Hence, in this study, these items were regarded as supportive towards the educators and their work by the respondents. According to Cronbach's alpha coefficient the questionnaire can be regarded as reliable. Recommendations are made to render the questionnaire even more applicable for the South African context.

  18. Application of web-GIS approach for climate change study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander; Bogomolov, Vasily; Martynova, Yuliya; Shulgina, Tamara

    2013-04-01

    Georeferenced datasets are currently actively used in numerous applications including modeling, interpretation and forecast of climatic and ecosystem changes for various spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size which might constitute up to tens terabytes for a single dataset at present studies in the area of climate and environmental change require a special software support. A dedicated web-GIS information-computational system for analysis of georeferenced climatological and meteorological data has been created. It is based on OGC standards and involves many modern solutions such as object-oriented programming model, modular composition, and JavaScript libraries based on GeoExt library, ExtJS Framework and OpenLayers software. The main advantage of the system lies in a possibility to perform mathematical and statistical data analysis, graphical visualization of results with GIS-functionality, and to prepare binary output files with just only a modern graphical web-browser installed on a common desktop computer connected to Internet. Several geophysical datasets represented by two editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA Interim Reanalysis, MRI/JMA APHRODITE's Water Resources Project Reanalysis, DWD Global Precipitation Climatology Centre's data, GMAO Modern Era-Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, meteorological observational data for the territory of the former USSR for the 20th century, results of modeling by global and regional climatological models, and others are available for processing by the system. And this list is extending. Also a functionality to run WRF and "Planet simulator" models was implemented in the system. Due to many preset parameters and limited time and spatial ranges set in the system these models have low computational power requirements and could be used in educational workflow for better

  19. Applicability of the Organisational Climate Description Questionnaire--Rutgers Elementary: A South African Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos, D.; Ellis, S. M.; van der Westhuizen, Philip C.; Mentz, P. J.

    2013-01-01

    The Organisational Climate Description Questionnaire--Rutgers Elementary (OCDQ--RE) was used to determine the current organizational climate of primary schools in North-West Province, South Africa. This questionnaire evaluates the actions of principals and educators; the current organizational climate in primary schools can be determined from the…

  20. Southern Africa’s climate: Current state and recent historical changes

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis, C

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Southern Africa is a predominantly semi-arid region with high rainfall variability, characterised by frequent droughts and floods. It is also widely recognised as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change because of low levels of adaptive...

  1. Climate change and wildfire effects in aridland riparian ecosystems: An examination of current and future conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Max Smith; Deborah M. Finch

    2017-01-01

    Aridland riparian ecosystems are limited, the climate is changing, and further hydrological change is likely in the American Southwest. To protect riparian ecosystems and organisms, we need to understand how they are affected by disturbance processes and stressors such as fire, drought, and non-native plant invasions. Riparian vegetation is critically important as...

  2. Groundwater recharge in desert playas: current rates and future effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our results from playas, which are topographic low areas situated in closed-catchments in drylands, indicated that projected climate change in Southwestern USA would have a net positive impact over runon and groundwater recharge beneath playas. Expected increased precipitation variability can cause ...

  3. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF Instrumentation Status: New, Current, and Future)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    JW Voyles

    2008-01-30

    The purpose of this report is to provide a concise but comprehensive overview of Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility instrumentation status. The report is divided into the following four sections: (1) new instrumentation in the process of being acquired and deployed, (2) existing instrumentation and progress on improvements or upgrades, (3) proposed future instrumentation, and (4) Small Business Innovation Research instrument development.

  4. Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2014-01-01

    The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing

  5. Study, design and manufacture eddy current probes for industry applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen Phuc; Nguyen Van Thuy; Vuong Binh Duong; Do Minh Duc; Trinh Dinh Truong; Tran Trong Duc; Do Tung Khanh; Dang Quang Trung

    2016-01-01

    This study is based on the studying, designing and manufacturing of eddy current probes for industry applications. The main tasks of this study include: i) Describes the overview and classification of eddy current probes (which can be classified into three categories based on the mode of operation: absolute eddy current probe, differential eddy current probe and reflect eddy current probe); ii) Describes the three methods of probe designing and manufacturing (including experimental, analytical and numerical designs); iii) Describes the designing and manufacturing of eddy current probes for industry applications, which based on experimental and analytical methods. Based on this study, we have successfully manufactured some current probes (including absolute eddy current probe, differential eddy current probe and reflect eddy current probe) for surface and tube inspections. (author)

  6. Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean. Current status and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-11-01

    This report is based on the agreements reached at the ITC meeting held in Brasilia on 17 and 18 July 2003, where each of the participating ITC agencies promised to compile collective efforts in the various thematic areas of priority to the Latin American and the Caribbean Initiative for Sustainable Development (LACI). In this report the activities on climate change that have been carried out in the region are detailed. It also notes the region's opportunities for implementing the Framework Convention on Climate Change. It should be noted that the inputs for this paper have been provided by the ITC agencies, that has been structured according to the activities and lines of work considered as important and strategic by the agencies

  7. Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

  8. A study on relationship between organizational climate and creativity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Akbar Ahmadi

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the relationship between organizational climate and women employees' creativity of Tabriz Red Crescent Organization. The research method is descriptive correlation performed among 120 women employed at the Red Crescent and 100 cases were selected for the proposed study. For data collection, Hoy and Miskel (2005's organizational climate and Randsyp creativity questionnaires with 0.78 and 0.82 Cronbach's alpha coefficients were used. Pearson correlation and multiple regressions were used to analyze research hypotheses. Results showed that there was a significant relationship between two indices of manager and subordinate behaviors and creativity. In addition, in investigating the relationship between climate and creativity components, findings showed that there was a significant relationship only between cooperation and pretending to job dimensions and creativity. This study also has shown that managers' behavior is closed and employees' behavior is more open than managers are.

  9. Climate change streamflow scenarios designed for critical period water resources planning studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, A. F.; Snover, A. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2003-04-01

    Long-range water planning in the United States is usually conducted by individual water management agencies using a critical period planning exercise based on a particular period of the observed streamflow record and a suite of internally-developed simulation tools representing the water system. In the context of planning for climate change, such an approach is flawed in that it assumes that the future climate will be like the historic record. Although more sophisticated planning methods will probably be required as time goes on, a short term strategy for incorporating climate uncertainty into long-range water planning as soon as possible is to create alternate inputs to existing planning methods that account for climate uncertainty as it affects both supply and demand. We describe a straight-forward technique for constructing streamflow scenarios based on the historic record that include the broad-based effects of changed regional climate simulated by several global climate models (GCMs). The streamflow scenarios are based on hydrologic simulations driven by historic climate data perturbed according to regional climate signals from four GCMs using the simple "delta" method. Further data processing then removes systematic hydrologic model bias using a quantile-based bias correction scheme, and lastly, the effects of random errors in the raw hydrologic simulations are removed. These techniques produce streamflow scenarios that are consistent in time and space with the historic streamflow record while incorporating fundamental changes in temperature and precipitation from the GCM scenarios. Planning model simulations based on these climate change streamflow scenarios can therefore be compared directly to planning model simulations based on the historic record of streamflows to help planners understand the potential impacts of climate uncertainty. The methods are currently being tested and refined in two large-scale planning exercises currently being conducted in the

  10. Lake Titicaca: History and current studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paredes Riveros, M.A.; Gonfiantini, R.

    1999-01-01

    This article summarizes results of Titicaca lake water balance studies including the findings of the IAEA Technical Cooperation Project RLA/08/022. Direct precipitation over the lake accounts for about 55% of the water inflow and rivers and streams provide about 45% of the water inflow. Diffuse groundwater leakage into the lake from coastal aquifers is believed to represent a negligible term of water balance. Evaporation from the lake is strong and accounts for more than 95% of the water losses. The isotopic and chemical composition data obtained within the frameworks of the IAEA Technical Cooperation Project RLA/08/022 are discussed

  11. Lake Titicaca: History and current studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paredes Riveros, M A [PELT, Puno (Peru); Gonfiantini, R [Istituto di Geocronologia e Geochimica Isotopica del CNR, Pisa (Italy)

    1999-12-01

    This article summarizes results of Titicaca lake water balance studies including the findings of the IAEA Technical Cooperation Project RLA/08/022. Direct precipitation over the lake accounts for about 55% of the water inflow and rivers and streams provide about 45% of the water inflow. Diffuse groundwater leakage into the lake from coastal aquifers is believed to represent a negligible term of water balance. Evaporation from the lake is strong and accounts for more than 95% of the water losses. The isotopic and chemical composition data obtained within the frameworks of the IAEA Technical Cooperation Project RLA/08/022 are discussed.

  12. A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric; Auer, Ingeborg; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Brandsma, Theo; Brunetti, Michele; Dienst, Manuel; Domonkos, Peter; Gilabert, Alba; Lindén, Jenny; Milewska, Ewa; Nordli, Øyvind; Prohom, Marc; Rennie, Jared; Stepanek, Petr; Trewin, Blair; Vincent, Lucie; Willett, Kate; Wolff, Mareile

    2016-04-01

    In this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, in the framework of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long-term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., (i) station relocations, (ii) instrument height changes, (iii) instrumentation changes, (iv) observing environment changes, (v) different sampling intervals or data collection procedures, among others. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of long-term trends and variability of climate. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location, different radiation shields, etc.). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of air temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important

  13. Methodological Issues on Climate Change Mitigation Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lene; Borges, Pedro Castro; Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses national greenhouse gas emission abatement costing studies as a case to discuss influential factors that determine their outcome and achievement. Costing studies are seen as part of an interconnected whole social process where actors (decision makers, clients, facilitators, expert...... such methodologies to case studies is seen as one way of improving the chances of understanding and handling environmental problems...

  14. Current status of studies on nodular corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yasuda, Takayoshi; Kawasaki, Satoru; Echigoya, Hironori; Kinoshita, Yutaka; Kubota, Hiroyuki; Konishi, Takao; Yamanaka, Tuneyasu.

    1993-01-01

    The studies on nodular corrosion formed on the outer surface of BWR fuel cladding tubes were reviewed. Main factors affecting the corrosion behavior were material and environmental conditions and combined effect. The effects of such material conditions as fabrication process, alloy elements, texture and surface treatment and environmental factors as neutron irradiation, thermo-hydrodynamic, water chemistry, purity of the coolant and contact with foreign metals on the corrosion phenomena were surveyed. Out-of-reactor corrosion test methods and models for the corrosion mechanism were also reviewed. Suppression of the accumulated annealing temperature during tube reduction process improved the nodular corrosion resistance of Zircaloys. Improved resistance for the nodular corrosion was reported for the unirradiated Zircaloys with some additives. Detailed irradiation test under the BWR conditions is needed to confirm the trend. Concerning the environmental factors, boiling on the cladding surface due to heat flux reduces the nodular corrosion susceptibility, while oxidizing radical generated from dissolved oxygen accelerates the corrosion. Concerning corrosion mechanisms, importance of such phenomena as the depleted zone of alloying elements in zirconium matrix, reduction of H + to H 2 in oxide layer, electrochemical property of precipitates, crystallographic anisotropy of oxidation rates were revealed. (author) 59 refs

  15. Studying the human dimensions of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berk, R.A.

    1991-01-01

    With recent scientific interest in climate change has come a need to address substantive issues over very long periods of time and over virtually the entire globe. There is also a growing recognition not only of the links between physical and biological systems but also of the key roles played by human activities and institutions in interaction with the physical and biological world. Hence, the study of climate change presents a host of important questions to social scientists, for which they are not fully prepared. The problems inherent in studying the human dimensions of global climate change do not occur in a scientific vacuum. Rather, they are in part created by, and in part reflect, important gaps in scientific understanding of the physical and biological dimensions. To set the stage, therefore, the general nature of these gaps needs to be briefly reviewed

  16. Potential and limitations of multidecadal satellite soil moisture observations for selected climate model evaluation studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Loew

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil moisture is an essential climate variable (ECV of major importance for land–atmosphere interactions and global hydrology. An appropriate representation of soil moisture dynamics in global climate models is therefore important. Recently, a first multidecadal, observation-based soil moisture dataset has become available that provides information on soil moisture dynamics from satellite observations (ECVSM, essential climate variable soil moisture. The present study investigates the potential and limitations of this new dataset for several applications in climate model evaluation. We compare soil moisture data from satellite observations, reanalysis and simulations from a state-of-the-art land surface model and analyze relationships between soil moisture and precipitation anomalies in the different dataset. Other potential applications like model parameter optimization or model initialization are not investigated in the present study. In a detailed regional study, we show that ECVSM is capable to capture well the interannual and intraannual soil moisture and precipitation dynamics in the Sahelian region. Current deficits of the new dataset are critically discussed and summarized at the end of the paper to provide guidance for an appropriate usage of the ECVSM dataset for climate studies.

  17. Panorama 2010: CO2 markets and the current status of international climate negotiations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberola, E.

    2010-01-01

    The emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere is causing climatic disturbances of increasing severity, representing risks for the entire planet. Existing GHG emissions reduction policies mainly focus on setting up cap and trade systems (carbon markets) geared to achieving such reductions. The Kyoto Protocol, an international treaty established under the auspices of the United Nations, sets forth the guiding principles, objectives and legally binding targets imposed on the parties concerned until 2012. The purpose of the international negotiations underway is to set up a new regulatory framework for the post-2012 period. (author)

  18. Good questions require good answers. Critics on current climate research contradicted

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vellinga, P.; Van Dorland, R.; Kabat, P.

    2008-01-01

    In some of the previous issues of this magazine (Spil 2007, issue 4 and 5-6, and Spil 2008, issue 1) the authors Labohm, Roersch and Thoenes started a frontal attack of the greenhouse theory and the researchers who report on the state of science in the framework of the IPCC. The author of this article addresses two main questions arising from the above-mentioned authors: (1) Does the use of fossil fuels affect global climate?; and (2) Is the warming of the last 30 years related to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere? [mk] [nl

  19. Simulation of Deep Water Renewal in Crater Lake, Oregon, USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Wood, T. M.; Wherry, S.; Girdner, S.

    2015-12-01

    We applied a 1-dimensional lake model developed to simulate deep mixing related to thermobaric instabilities in temperate lakes to Crater Lake, a 590-m deep caldera lake in Oregon's Cascade Range known for its stunning deep blue color and extremely clear water, in order to determine the frequency of deep water renewal in future climate conditions. The lake model was calibrated with 6 years of water temperature profiles, and then simulated 10 years of validation data with an RMSE ranging from 0.81°C at 50 m depth to 0.04°C at 350-460 m depth. The simulated time series of heat content in the deep lake accurately captured extreme years characterized by weak and strong deep water renewal. The lake model uses wind speed and lake surface temperature (LST) as boundary conditions. LST projections under six climate scenarios from the CMIP5 intermodel comparison project (2 representative concentration pathways X 3 general circulation models) were evaluated with air2water, a simple lumped model that only requires daily values of downscaled air temperature. air2water was calibrated with data from 1993-2011, resulting in a RMSE between simulated and observed daily LST values of 0.68°C. All future climate scenarios project increased water temperature throughout the water column and a substantive reduction in the frequency of deepwater renewal events. The least extreme scenario (CNRM-CM5, RCP4.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to decrease from about 1 in 2 years in the present to about 1 in 3 years by 2100. The most extreme scenario (HadGEM2-ES, RCP8.5) projects the frequency of deepwater renewal events to be less than 1 in 7 years by 2100 and lake surface temperatures never cooling to less than 4°C after 2050. In all RCP4.5 simulations the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C for increasing periods of time. In the RCP8.5 simulations, the temperature of the entire water column is greater than 4°C year round by the year 2060 (HadGEM2

  20. Nurses' perceptions of climate and environmental issues: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anåker, Anna; Nilsson, Maria; Holmner, Åsa; Elf, Marie

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this study was to explore nurses' perceptions of climate and environmental issues and examine how nurses perceive their role in contributing to the process of sustainable development. Climate change and its implications for human health represent an increasingly important issue for the healthcare sector. According to the International Council of Nurses Code of Ethics, nurses have a responsibility to be involved and support climate change mitigation and adaptation to protect human health. This is a descriptive, explorative qualitative study. Nurses (n = 18) were recruited from hospitals, primary care and emergency medical services; eight participated in semi-structured, in-depth individual interviews and 10 participated in two focus groups. Data were collected from April-October 2013 in Sweden; interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using content analysis. Two main themes were identified from the interviews: (i) an incongruence between climate and environmental issues and nurses' daily work; and (ii) public health work is regarded as a health co-benefit of climate change mitigation. While being green is not the primary task in a lifesaving, hectic and economically challenging context, nurses' perceived their profession as entailing responsibility, opportunities and a sense of individual commitment to influence the environment in a positive direction. This study argues there is a need for increased awareness of issues and methods that are crucial for the healthcare sector to respond to climate change. Efforts to develop interventions should explore how nurses should be able to contribute to the healthcare sector's preparedness for and contributions to sustainable development. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. The Canada country study: climate impacts and adaptation, Ontario summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavender, B.; Smith, J. [Smith and Lavender Envrironmental Consultants (Canada); Bullock, T. [Environment Canada, Hull, PQ (Canada). Atmospheric Environment Service

    1997-12-31

    Another summary volume in the series of national assessments by experts on climate in government, industry and academic institutions, giving their views on how climate change will affect Canadians and their social, biological and economic environment over the next century. This summary is devoted to a discussion of the impacts and implications of climate change on Ontario. Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase over the next century which will result in an increase in the average global temperature. Some of the changes noted over the last century include a rise in average temperature, especially in winter and it is highly likely that this trend will continue. A shortening of the snow season and lengthening of the growing season are likely to result. Increase in the frequency and intensity of summer heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns, soil moisture and the frequency of severe winter storms, thunderstorms, hails, tornadoes and hurricanes also have been predicted. Preparation for a changing climate is essential to escaping the worst consequences of the predicted changes. One way to prepare might be by improving the adaptation to current conditions. In practice, this might be done by improving the management of our water resources, providing better protection for public health and the environment, working towards sustainability in energy supply and demand, protecting forests by planned harvesting and by planting disease-resistant species, protecting agriculture by selecting crops that better fit climate conditions and by improving irrigation practices, and lessening air pollution damage by reducing atmospheric emission of substances that cause pollution problems. 3 figs.

  2. Studies on bio climatic acclimatization in goats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kassab, F.M.A.H.

    1994-01-01

    The present investigation was conducted to study the effect of temperature on some aspects of baladi goats (Caprahircus). The study was carried out on 14 female Baladi goats (2.5 year average and 15-30 kg weight). The study includes two experiments : In experiment I: 8 animals are maintained under hot condition (35 degree C and 25% R.H.) 8 h rs/day for one week to study the effect of heat stress on total body water content, water turnover rate and biological half life time of tritiated water by using tritiated water dilution technique in comparison to those of cold conditions (15 degree C and 50% R.H.) for 8 h rs/day for one week. The second experiment is concerned with the effect of high and low ambient temperatures on blood parameters (RBC count, Hb content and PCV) blood gases, acid-base status and blood oxygen dissociation curve. The results indicated that total body water content and water turnover rate increased significantly as a result of heat stress but biological half-life time decreased significantly

  3. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fatichi, S.; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-01-01

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  4. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fatichi, S., E-mail: simone.fatichi@ifu.baug.ethz.ch; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  5. School Climate and Exposure to Bullying: A Multilevel Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Låftman, Sara Brolin; Östberg, Viveca; Modin, Bitte

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates associations between aspects of school climate, measured by students' assessments aggregated to the class level, and exposure to bullying, measured at the individual level. The data were derived from the Stockholm School Survey of 2006-2010 with information from 16,418 ninth-grade students (aged 15-16 years) distributed…

  6. The relationship between team climate and interprofessional collaboration: preliminary results of a mixed methods study

    OpenAIRE

    Bailey, Christopher; Agreli, Heloise F.; Peduzzi, Marina

    2016-01-01

    Relational and organisational factors are key elements of interprofessional collaboration (IPC) and team climate. Few studies have explored the relationship between IPC and team climate. This article presents a study that 10 aimed to explore IPC in primary healthcare teams and understand how the assessment of team climate may provide insights into IPC. A mixed methods study design was adopted. In Stage 1 of the study, team climate was assessed using the Team Climate Inventory with 159 profess...

  7. Current and projected water demand and water availability estimates under climate change scenarios in the Weyib River basin in Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

    2017-07-01

    This study intended to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of current and projected water demand and water availability under climate change scenarios in Weyib River basin, Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia. Future downscaled climate variables from three Earth System Models under the three RCP emission scenarios were inputted into ArcSWAT hydrological model to simulate different components of water resources of a basin whereas current and projected human and livestock population of the basin is considered to estimate the total annual water demand for various purposes. Results revealed that the current total annual water demand of the basin is found to be about 289 Mm3, and this has to increase by 83.47% after 15 years, 200.67% after 45 years, and 328.78% after 75 years by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period water demand mainly due to very rapid increasing population (40.81, 130.80, and 229.12% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively) and climatic variability. The future average annual total water availability in the basin is observed to be increased by ranging from 15.04 to 21.61, 20.08 to 23.34, and 16.21 to 39.53% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time slice, respectively, from base period available water resources (2333.39 Mm3). The current water availability per capita per year of the basin is about 3112.23 m3 and tends to decline ranging from 11.78 to 17.49, 46.02 to 47.45, and 57.18 to 64.34% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period per capita per year water availability. This indicated that there might be possibility to fall the basin under water stress condition in the long term.

  8. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  9. The GHG-CCI Project to Deliver the Essential Climate Variable Greenhouse Gases: Current status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchwitz, M.; Boesch, H.; Reuter, M.

    2012-04-01

    The GHG-CCI project (http://www.esa-ghg-cci.org) is one of several projects of ESA's Climate Change Initiative (CCI), which will deliver various Essential Climate Variables (ECVs). The goal of GHG-CCI is to deliver global satellite-derived data sets of the two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) suitable to obtain information on regional CO2 and CH4 surface sources and sinks as needed for better climate prediction. The GHG-CCI core ECV data products are column-averaged mole fractions of CO2 and CH4, XCO2 and XCH4, retrieved from SCIAMACHY on ENVISAT and TANSO on GOSAT. Other satellite instruments will be used to provide constraints in upper layers such as IASI, MIPAS, and ACE-FTS. Which of the advanced algorithms, which are under development, will be the best for a given data product still needs to be determined. For each of the 4 GHG-CCI core data products - XCO2 and XCH4 from SCIAMACHY and GOSAT - several algorithms are bing further developed and the corresponding data products are inter-compared to identify which data product is the most appropriate. This includes comparisons with corresponding data products generated elsewhere, most notably with the operational data products of GOSAT generated at NIES and the NASA/ACOS GOSAT XCO2 product. This activity, the so-called "Round Robin exercise", will be performed in the first two years of this project. At the end of the 2 year Round Robin phase (end of August 2012) a decision will be made which of the algorithms performs best. The selected algorithms will be used to generate the first version of the ECV GHG. In the last six months of this 3 year project the resulting data products will be validated and made available to all interested users. In the presentation and overview about this project will be given focussing on the latest results.

  10. Climate mission study n.10, january 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delbosc, A.; Keppler, J.H.; Leseur, A.

    2007-01-01

    This note aims to explain the evolution of the intensity of the the developed economies of the greenhouse gases emission. This study concerns only the countries called industrialized without the developing countries and those of the old east soviet bloc. In the first part the authors aim to know if the carbon intensity evolution of the economies go with convergence or divergence phenomena. The second part is more devoted to the impacts of the energetic choices on the adopted policies of the countries. Finally a particular attention is given to the characteristics of the european union countries which present a unique policy among the developed countries. (A.L.B.)

  11. Mindfulness and Climate Change Action: A Feasibility Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maggie Grabow

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Pro-environmental behaviors and the cultural shifts that can accompany these may offer solutions to the consequences of a changing climate. Mindfulness has been proposed as a strategy to initiate these types of behaviors. In 2017, we pilot-tested Mindful Climate Action (MCA, an eight-week adult education program that delivers energy use, climate change, and sustainability content in combination with training in mindfulness meditation, among 16 individuals living in Madison, WI. We collected participant data at baseline and at different times across the study period regarding household energy use, transportation, diet, and health and happiness. This pilot study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of the various MCA study practices including measurement tools, outcome assessment, curriculum and related educational materials, and especially the mindfulness-based climate action trainings. MCA was well-received by participants as evidenced by high adherence rate, high measures of participant satisfaction, and high participant response rate for surveys. In addition, we successfully demonstrated feasibility of the MCA program, and have estimated participant’s individual carbon footprints related to diet, transportation, and household energy.

  12. The influence of current and future climate on the spatial distribution of coccidioidomycosis in the southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorris, M. E.; Hoffman, F. M.; Zender, C. S.; Treseder, K. K.; Randerson, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    Coccidioidomycosis, otherwise known as valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern U.S. The magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of valley fever incidence is shaped by variations in regional climate. As such, climate change may cause new communities to become at risk for contracting this disease. Humans contract valley fever by inhaling fungal spores of the genus Coccidioides. Coccidioides grow in the soil as a mycelium, and when stressed, autolyze into spores 2-5 µm in length. Spores can become airborne from any natural or anthropogenic soil disturbance, which can be exacerbated by dry soil conditions. Understanding the relationship between climate and valley fever incidence is critical for future disease risk management. We explored several multivariate techniques to create a predictive model of county-level valley fever incidence throughout the southwestern U.S., including Arizona, California, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah. We incorporated surface air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, surface dust concentrations, leaf area index, and the amount of agricultural land, all of which influence valley fever incidence. A log-linear regression model that incorporated surface air temperature, soil moisture, surface dust concentration, and the amount of agricultural land explained 34% of the county-level variance in annual average valley fever incidence. We used this model to predict valley fever incidence for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 using simulation output from the Community Earth System Model. In our analysis, we describe how regional hotspots of valley fever incidence may shift with sustained warming and drying in the southwestern U.S. Our predictive model of valley fever incidence may help mitigate future health impacts of valley fever by informing health officials and policy makers of the climate conditions suitable for disease outbreak.

  13. The exotic invasive plant Vincetoxicum rossicum is a strong competitor even outside its current realized climatic temperature range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurа Sanderson

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Dog-strangling vine (Vincetoxicum rossicum is an exotic plant originating from Central and Eastern Europe that is becoming increasingly invasive in southern Ontario, Canada. Once established, it successfully displaces local native plant species but mechanisms behind this plant’s high competitive ability are not fully understood. It is unknown whether cooler temperatures will limit the range expansion of V. rossicum, which has demonstrated high tolerance for other environmental variables such as light and soil moisture. Furthermore, if V. rossicum can establish outside its current climatic limit it is unknown whether competition with native species can significantly contribute to reduce fitness and slow down invasion. We conducted an experiment to test the potential of V. rossicum to spread into northern areas of Ontario using a set of growth chambers to simulate southern and northern Ontario climatic temperature regimes. We also tested plant-plant competition by growing V. rossicum in pots with a highly abundant native species, Solidago canadensis, and comparing growth responses to plants grown alone. We found that the fitness of V. rossicum was not affected by the cooler climate despite a delay in reproductive phenology. Growing V. rossicum with S. canadensis caused a significant reduction in seedpod biomass of V. rossicum. However, we did not detect a temperature x competition interaction in spite of evidence for adaptation of S. canadensis to cooler temperature conditions. We conclude that the spread of V. rossicum north within the tested range is unlikely to be limited by climatic temperature but competition with an abundant native species may contribute to slow it down.

  14. Immunological studies relating to the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballester, J.M.; Cruz, C.; Inclan, G.; Maclas, C.; Suarez, L.; Rivero, R.; Borres, I.M.; Ustariz, C.; Del Valle, L.; Villegas, R.; Martinez, E.; Rorrajero, I.; Guevara, V.; Leon, A.; Paz, L.; Pelaez, J.C.; Roque, M.C.

    1993-01-01

    In order to know the effects of ultra-violet radiations on the integrity of their immunological system, a hematologic and immunological study was carried out in 30 clinically healthy children aged between 10 and 15; 15 of each sex, who come from a region in Bielorussia that was affected by the Chernobyl nuclear accident, and who received medical and recreational services at the 'Jose Marti' Pioneers'City, located Tarara Beach (Havana, Cuba) from July 9,1990 to August 27,1990. Data from the initial evaluations upon their arrival in Cuba were compared whit the final results before their return to Bielorussia, in the following variables: haemoglobin, leucocytes, platelets, absolute counts of lymphocytes and neutrophylous polymorphonuclears, levels of sericeus of Igs G, A, M, and E sericas and (CH50), as well as the presence of circulating immuno complexes; besides spot-forming cellular clusters (spontaneous, active, and medial by the receptor Fc in neutrophylous) and the cells identified with monoclonal antibodies against CD2, CD3, CD8 and CD4/CD8 quotient. Cutaneous response to antigen and lymphoblastic transformation in the presence of PHA and PwN were also assessed. Results of this research allow to infer that the adequate and monitored position against ultra-violet rays from the solar radiation in children exposed to low doses of ionizing irradiation does not deteriorate the human immunological system, and do favor its regulation and normal performance

  15. Complementarity among climate related energy sources: Sensitivity study to climate characteristics across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Raynaud, Damien; Borga, Marco; Vautard, Robert

    2015-04-01

    Climate related energy sources like solar-power, wind-power and hydro-power are important contributors to the transitions to a low-carbon economy. Past studies, mainly based on solar and wind powers, showed that the power from such energy sources fluctuates in time and space following their driving climatic variables. However, when combining different energy sources together, their intermittent feature is smoothed, resulting to lower time variability of the produced power and to lower storage capacity required for balancing. In this study, we consider solar, wind and hydro energy sources in a 100% renewable Europe using a set of 12 regions following two climate transects, the first one going from the Northern regions (Norway, Finland) to the Southern ones (Greece, Andalucía, Tunisia) and the second one going from the oceanic climate (West of France, Galicia) to the continental one (Romania, Belorussia). For each of those regions, we combine wind and solar irradiance data from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (Vautard et al., 2014), temperature data from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) and runoff from the Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC, 1999) for estimating solar-power, wind-power, run-of-the-river hydro-power and the electricity demand over a time period of 30 years. The use of this set of 12 regions across Europe allows integrating knowledge about time and space variability for each different energy sources. We then assess the optimal share of each energy sources, aiming to decrease the time variability of the regional energy balance at different time scales as well as the energy storage required for balancing within each region. We also evaluate how energy transport among regions contributes for smoothing out both the energy balance and the storage requirement. The strengths of this study are i) to handle with run-of-the-river hydro power in addition to wind and solar energy sources and ii) to carry out this analysis

  16. Meeting of the 7. session of the scientific advisory committee of the world climate impact studies programme, Mauritius, 9-11 January 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    A brief outline of ongoing projects implemented by UNEP as part of the current phase of the World Climate Impact Studies Programme (WCIP) is given. The projects are classified under several main headings: (i) Greenhouse gas/climate change issue; (ii) Coordination of national climate programmes; (iii) Methodology of climate impact assessment. Following the agreement with Delft Laboratories and the publication of the UNEP supported study of areas vulnerable to sea level rise, a site specific study of sea level rise impacts was being considered for development. However, the project would become the responsibility of the UNEP Oceans and Coastal Areas Programme Activity Centre (OCA/PAC). Overview of sea level rise, the inventory of climate impact studies, newsletter, methodology of climate impact assessment were other topics discussed at the seventh session of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the World Climate Impact Studies Programme, Mauritius, 9-11 January 1990

  17. Scientific data and climate scenarios. Study report nr 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alex, Bastien; Baillat, Alice; Francois Gemenne; Jean Jouzel

    2017-05-01

    The objective of this report is to present climate evolutions and their impacts according to two warming scenarios: a 2 degree increase of the average surface temperature by 2100 (i.e. the most optimistic IPCC scenario), and a 5 degree increase by 2100 (the most pessimistic scenario). As far as possible, physical, social and economic, and health impacts are assessed by 2030 and 2050. The authors notice that the differences between both scenarios are hardly discernible by 2030, but more obviously by 2050. After a brief recall on IPCC scenarios, a first part addresses the evolutions of the world climate by considering the atmosphere (temperature increase, modification of precipitation regimes), seas and oceans (temperature, currents and thermal circulation, ocean acidification, seal level rise), extreme climate events (observations and trends, main impacts on populations and infrastructures), and the cryo-sphere (observations and impacts). The second part discusses regional predictions in terms of trends and impacts for metropolitan France and its overseas territories, for Africa, and for the Asia-Pacific region. The last part briefly discusses the possibly necessary evolution of the typology chosen to determine sources of vulnerability and the level of exposure to different risks. Many appendices propose more detailed presentations on specific issues and examples. A summarised version of the report is also provided

  18. Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Amin

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Pakistan is currently facing physical and economic water scarcity issues that are further complicated by the rapid increase in its population and by climate change. Many studies have focused on the physical water scarcity using hydrological modeling and the measurement of the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB. However, few studies have concentrated on the importance of the economic water scarcity, that is, the water management issue under the looming impacts of climate change and the population explosion of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to develop a management strategy which helps to achieve water security and sustainability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB with the help of different socio-economic and climate change scenarios using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning modeling. The streamflow data of five sub-basins (Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, and Astore and the entire Upper Indus Basin (UIB were calibrated (2006–2010 and validated (2011–2014 in the WEAP model. The coefficient of determination and Nash Sutcliffe values for the calibration period ranged from 0.81–0.96. The coefficient of determination and the Nash Sutcliffe values for the validation period ranged from 0.85–0.94. After the development of the WEAP model, the analysis of the unmet water demand and percent coverage of the water demand for the period of 2006–2050 was computed. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth, urbanization, and living standards and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results indicated that the future unmet water demand is likely to reach 134 million cubic meters (mcm by the year 2050 and that the external driving factors are putting more pressure on the supply service. This study further explores the importance of proposed dams (likely to be built until 2025 by WAPDA (Water and Power Development

  19. [Air contamination in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires: the current risk or future climate change, a false option].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrutzky, Rosana; Dawidowski, Laura; Murgida, Ana; Natenzon, Claudia Eleonor

    2014-09-01

    Based on the theoretical framework of environmental risk, this article discusses the management of air quality in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires in relation to current and potential impacts of toxic gases and global climate change on the health of the population. Information on historical and current management of the air was linked to the results of the South American Emissions, Megacities and Climate research project to assess danger, exposure, vulnerability and uncertainty as the dimensions of risk. By contextualizing public policies developed in recent decades on this subject, it was possible to identify emerging configurations of risk and uncertainties as accelerators of social vulnerability. On the one hand, the fact that there is a positive correlation between mortality, changes in temperature and air pollution was confirmed. On the other hand, it became clear that there is a disconnect between air quality management and health care management, while limitations were found in the proposed mitigation measures relating to emissions of greenhouse gases produced by fuel, revealing uncertainties regarding their efficacy.

  20. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  1. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  2. Norwegian Hydrological Reference Dataset for Climate Change Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magnussen, Inger Helene; Killingland, Magnus; Spilde, Dag

    2012-07-01

    Based on the Norwegian hydrological measurement network, NVE has selected a Hydrological Reference Dataset for studies of hydrological change. The dataset meets international standards with high data quality. It is suitable for monitoring and studying the effects of climate change on the hydrosphere and cryosphere in Norway. The dataset includes streamflow, groundwater, snow, glacier mass balance and length change, lake ice and water temperature in rivers and lakes.(Author)

  3. ClimaDat: A long-term network to study at different scales climatic processes and interactions between climatic compartments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgui, Josep Anton; Agueda, Alba; Batet, Oscar; Curcoll, Roger; Ealo, Marina; Grossi, Claudia; Occhipinti, Paola; Sánchez-García, Laura; Arias, Rosa; Rodó, Xavi

    2013-04-01

    ClimaDat (www.climadat.es) is a pioneer project of the Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) in collaboration with and funded by "la Caixa" Foundation. This project aims at studying the interactions between climate and ecosystems at different spatial and temporal scales. The ClimaDat project consists of a network of eight long-term observatory stations distributed over Spain, installed at natural and remote areas, and covering different climatic domains (e.g. Mediterranean, Atlantic, subtropics) and natural systems (e.g. delta, karsts, high mountain areas). Data obtained in the ClimaDat network will help us to understand how ecosystems are influenced by and eventually might feedback different processes in the climate system. The point of focus of these studies will be taken into account regional-and-local conditions to understand climatic global scale eventsThe data gathered will be used to study the behavior of the global element cycles and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The network is expected to offer near real-time (NRT) data free for the scientific community. Instrumentation installed at these stations mainly consists of: CO2, CH4, H2O, CO, N2O, SF6 and 222Rn analyzers, isotopic CO2, CH4 and H2O analyzers, meteorological sensors, eddy covariance equipment, four-component radiometers, soil moisture and temperature sensors, and sap flow meters. Each station may have a more focused subset of all this equipment, depending on the specific characteristics of the site. Instrumentation selected for this network has been chosen to comply with standards established in international research infrastructure projects, such as ICOS (http://www.icos-infrastructure.eu/home) or InGOS (http://www.ingos-infrastructure.eu/). Preliminary data time-series of greenhouse gases concentrations and meteorological variables are presented in this study for three currently operational ClimaDat stations: the Natural Park of the Ebre Delta (lat 40.75° N - long 0.79° E), the

  4. Current state of aerosol nucleation parameterizations for air-quality and climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semeniuk, Kirill; Dastoor, Ashu

    2018-04-01

    Aerosol nucleation parameterization models commonly used in 3-D air quality and climate models have serious limitations. This includes classical nucleation theory based variants, empirical models and other formulations. Recent work based on detailed and extensive laboratory measurements and improved quantum chemistry computation has substantially advanced the state of nucleation parameterizations. In terms of inorganic nucleation involving BHN and THN including ion effects these new models should be considered as worthwhile replacements for the old models. However, the contribution of organic species to nucleation remains poorly quantified. New particle formation consists of a distinct post-nucleation growth regime which is characterized by a strong Kelvin curvature effect and is thus dependent on availability of very low volatility organic species or sulfuric acid. There have been advances in the understanding of the multiphase chemistry of biogenic and anthropogenic organic compounds which facilitate to overcome the initial aerosol growth barrier. Implementation of processes influencing new particle formation is challenging in 3-D models and there is a lack of comprehensive parameterizations. This review considers the existing models and recent innovations.

  5. Groundwater recharge in desert playas: current rates and future effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Owen P.; Sala, Osvaldo E.

    2018-01-01

    Our results from playas, which are topographic low areas situated in closed-catchments in drylands, indicated that projected climate change in Southwestern USA would have a net positive impact over runon and groundwater recharge beneath playas. Expected increased precipitation variability can cause up to a 300% increase in annual groundwater recharge beneath playas. This increase will overshadow the effect of decreased precipitation amount that could cause up to a 50% decrease in recharge beneath playas. These changes could have a significant impact on groundwater and carbon storage. These results are important given that groundwater resources in Southwestern USA continue to decline due to human consumption outpacing natural recharge of aquifers. Here, we report on groundwater recharge rates ranging from less than 1 mm to greater than 25 mm per year beneath desert playas. Playas located in larger and steeper catchments with finer-textured soils had the highest rates of recharge. Vegetation cover had no effect on recharge beneath playas. We modeled catchment runoff generation and found that the amount of runon a playa receives annually strongly correlated to the rate of groundwater recharge beneath that playa. Runon occurred during precipitation events larger than 20 mm and increased linearly with events above that threshold.

  6. Teachers' Autonomy in Today's Educational Climate: Current Perceptions from an Acceptable Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Luman E. G.; Yoshida, Roland K.

    2014-01-01

    This research evaluated the psychometric properties of Friedman's (1999) Teacher Work-Autonomy Scale (TWA) to determine whether it was an acceptable instrument to measure U.S. teacher autonomy in the present educational context. A second purpose was to ascertain the current status of teachers' perceptions of their autonomy from a sample of U.S.…

  7. Modeling fire-driven deforestation potential in Amazonia under current and projected climate conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Page, Y.; van der Werf, G.R.; Morton, D.C.; Pereira, J.M.C.

    2010-01-01

    Fire is a widely used tool to prepare deforested areas for agricultural use in Amazonia. Deforestation is currently concentrated in seasonal forest types along the arc of deforestation, where dry-season conditions facilitate burning of clear-felled vegetation. Interior Amazon forests, however, are

  8. Terrestrial hydro-climatic change, lake shrinkage and water resource deterioration: Analysis of current to future drivers across Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarsjo, J.; Beygi, H.; Thorslund, J.

    2016-12-01

    Due to overlapping effects of different anthropogenic pressures and natural variability, main drivers behind on-going changes in the water cycle have in many cases not been identified, which complicates management of water resources. For instance, in many parts of the world, and not least in semi-arid and arid parts of Asia, lowered groundwater levels and shrinkage of surface water bodies with associated salinization and water quality deterioration constitute great challenges. With the aim to identify main drivers and mechanisms behind such changes, we here combine (i) historical observations of long-term, large scale change, (ii) ensemble projections of expected future change from the climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) and (iii) output from water balance modelling. Our particular focus is on regions near shrinking lakes. For the principal Lake Urmia in Iran, results show that agricultural intensification including irrigation expansion has clearly contributed to the surprisingly rapid water quality deterioration and lake shrinkage, from 10% lake area reduction in 2002 to the current value of about 75% (leaving billion of tons of salt exposed in its basin). Nevertheless, runoff decrease due to climate change has had an even larger effect. For the Aral Sea in Central Asia, where problems accelerated much earlier (in the 1990's), land-use change and irrigation expansion can fully explain the disastrous surface water deficits and water quality problems in the extensive low-lying parts of the basin. However, projections show that climate-driven runoff decrease in the headwaters of the Aral Sea basin may become a dominant driver of continued change in the near-future. More generally, present results illustrate that mitigation measures that compensate only for land-use driven effects may not reverse current trends of decreasing water availability, due to increasingly strong impacts of climate-driven runoff decrease. This has

  9. Ecological impacts of atmospheric pollution and interactions with climate change in terrestrial ecosystems of the Mediterranean Basin: Current research and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa-Hueso, Raúl; Munzi, Silvana; Alonso, Rocío; Arróniz-Crespo, María; Avila, Anna; Bermejo, Victoria; Bobbink, Roland; Branquinho, Cristina; Concostrina-Zubiri, Laura; Cruz, Cristina; Cruz de Carvalho, Ricardo; De Marco, Alessandra; Dias, Teresa; Elustondo, David; Elvira, Susana; Estébanez, Belén; Fusaro, Lina; Gerosa, Giacomo; Izquieta-Rojano, Sheila; Lo Cascio, Mauro; Marzuoli, Riccardo; Matos, Paula; Mereu, Simone; Merino, José; Morillas, Lourdes; Nunes, Alice; Paoletti, Elena; Paoli, Luca; Pinho, Pedro; Rogers, Isabel B; Santos, Arthur; Sicard, Pierre; Stevens, Carly J; Theobald, Mark R

    2017-08-01

    Mediterranean Basin ecosystems, their unique biodiversity, and the key services they provide are currently at risk due to air pollution and climate change, yet only a limited number of isolated and geographically-restricted studies have addressed this topic, often with contrasting results. Particularities of air pollution in this region include high O 3 levels due to high air temperatures and solar radiation, the stability of air masses, and dominance of dry over wet nitrogen deposition. Moreover, the unique abiotic and biotic factors (e.g., climate, vegetation type, relevance of Saharan dust inputs) modulating the response of Mediterranean ecosystems at various spatiotemporal scales make it difficult to understand, and thus predict, the consequences of human activities that cause air pollution in the Mediterranean Basin. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement coordinated research and experimental platforms along with wider environmental monitoring networks in the region. In particular, a robust deposition monitoring network in conjunction with modelling estimates is crucial, possibly including a set of common biomonitors (ideally cryptogams, an important component of the Mediterranean vegetation), to help refine pollutant deposition maps. Additionally, increased attention must be paid to functional diversity measures in future air pollution and climate change studies to establish the necessary link between biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services in Mediterranean ecosystems. Through a coordinated effort, the Mediterranean scientific community can fill the above-mentioned gaps and reach a greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying the combined effects of air pollution and climate change in the Mediterranean Basin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013

  11. Critical Studies on Integrating Land-Use Induced Effects on Climate Regulation Services into Impact Assessment for Human Well-Being

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihui Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available It is commonly acknowledged that land use changes (LUC and climate changes have exerted significant effects on ecosystem services which are essential and vital to human well-being. Among all the services provided by ecosystem, climate regulation services are relatively sensitive to LUC and climate changes. This study aims to comprehensively review studies on the complex effects of LUC and climate changes on climate regulation services and further integrates the effects on climate regulation services into impact assessment for human well-being. In this study, we firstly introduced research efforts in which the drivers of and their corresponding effects on climate regulation services are briefly identified. Then, we explicitly reviewed the researches on the effects of LUC and climate changes on climate regulation services, especially focused on the certain methods and models used to quantify the effects on the major drivers of climate regulation services. After that, the effects of LUC and climate changes on human well-being via climate regulation services were revisited and commented accordingly. Finally, this paper discussed the current research gaps and proposed some research prospects in future studies.

  12. Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.

    2008-12-01

    Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal

  13. Climate implications of carbonaceous aerosols: An aerosol microphysical study using the GISS/MATRIX climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi; Koch, Dorothy; Bond, Tami; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2010-01-01

    Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a likely short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, cloud-indirect and semi-direct forcing effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and its climate interactions. Black carbon is directly released as particle into the atmosphere, but then interacts with other gases and particles through condensation and coagulation processes leading to further aerosol growth, aging and internal mixing. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the global GISS modelE includes the above processes that determine the lifecycle and climate impact of aerosols. This study presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative forcing. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing change is -0.56 W/m 2 between 1750 and 2000. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are very sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative forcing change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m 2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties. Assuming that sulfates, nitrates and secondary organics form a coating shell around a black carbon core, rather than forming a uniformly mixed particles, changes the overall net radiative forcing from a negative to a positive number. Black carbon mitigation scenarios showed generally a benefit when mainly black carbon sources such as diesel emissions are reduced, reducing organic and black carbon sources such as bio-fuels, does not lead to reduced warming.

  14. Studies of urban climates and air pollution in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wanner, H.; Hertig, J.

    1984-01-01

    In addition to an assessment of the factors that are responsible for urban climate change, this paper describes climatological studies and peculiarities of some Swiss cities. Although these cities are small, urban air pollution presents a real problem for urban planning. This is a result of the narow street canyons, the high traffic concentration and the complex topography, which favors air stagnation during anticyclonic weather conditions

  15. Bioclimatic predictions of habitat suitability for the biofuel switchgrass in North America under current and future climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barney, Jacob N.; DiTomaso, Joseph M.

    2010-01-01

    Dedicated biofuel crops, while providing economic and other benefits, may adversely impact biodiversity directly via land use conversion, or indirectly via creation of novel invasive species. To mitigate negative impacts bioclimatic envelope models (BEM) can be used to estimate the potential distribution and suitable habitat based on the climate and distribution in the native range. We used CLIMEX to evaluate the regions of North America suitable for agronomic production, as well as regions potentially susceptible to an invasion of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) under both current and future climate scenarios. Model results show that >8.7 million km 2 of North America has suitable to very favorable habitat, most of which occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. The non-native range of western North America is largely unsuitable to switchgrass as a crop or potential weed unless irrigation or permanent water is available. Under both the CGCM2 and HadCM3 climate models and A2 and B2 emissions scenarios, an overall increase in suitable habitat is predicted over the coming century, although the western US remains unsuitable. Our results suggest that much of North America is suitable for switchgrass cultivation, although this is likely to shift north in the coming century. Our results also agree with field collections of switchgrass outside its native range, which indicate that switchgrass is unlikely to establish unless it has access to water throughout the year (e.g., along a stream). Thus, it is the potential invasion of switchgrass into riparian habitats in the West that requires further investigation. (author)

  16. Impact of climate change on large scale coastal currents of South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Meyer, A

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available of temperature trends in the southern indian ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L14611, doi:10.1029/2007gL030380. • De Ruijter, W.P.M., van Aken, H.M., Beier, E.J., Lutjeharms, J.R.E., Matano, R.P. Schouten, M.W. 2004. eddies and dipoles around South... Madagascar: formation, pathways and large- scale impact. Deep-Sea Research I, 51, 383-400. • Lutjeharms, J. R. E. and van Ballegooyen, R. C. 1988. Anomalous upstream retroflection in the agulhas current. Science, 240, 1770-1772. • Rouault, M., Penven...

  17. Estimating mobilized private climate finance for developing countries - A Norwegian pilot study

    OpenAIRE

    Torvanger, Asbjørn; Narbel, Patrick; Lund, Harald Francke

    2015-01-01

    The point of departure for this study is the available data in Norway on climate finance for developing countries. The bottleneck in tracking mobilized private climate finance is availability and quality of data. The main challenge is that Norwegian public institutions sourcing public support for climate finance have not yet implemented sufficient systems for measurement, reporting and verification of mobilized private climate finance. In addition, climate finance tracking is constrained by m...

  18. Climate Literacy: Climate.gov Follow-Up Evaluation—A Study of the Four NOAA Audiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepold, F., III; Sullivan, S. B.; Gold, A. U.; Lynds, S. E.; Kirk, K.

    2014-12-01

    NOAA Climate.gov provides science and information for a climate-smart nation. Americans' health, security, and economic well-being are closely linked to climate and weather. NOAA Climate.gov's goals are to promote public understanding of climate science and climate-related events, to make our data products and services easy to access and use, to support educators in improving the nations climate literacy, and to serve people making climate-related decisions with tools and resources that help them answer specific questions.The Climate.Gov Follow-Up Study of the four NOAA Audiences (climate interested public, educators, scientists, policy-makers) built upon the previous literature review and evaluation study conducted by Mooney and Phillips in 2010 and 2012, http://tinyurl.com/ma8vo83. The CIRES Education and Outreach team at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at University of Colorado at Boulder and the NOAA Climate.gov team will present results of the new study that used the Quality of Relationship index (awareness, trust, satisfaction, usability, and control mutuality). This index was developed in the previous study and places a new emphasis on the experience of individual users from the four audiences in their regular work or home setting. This new evaluation project used mixed methods, including an online survey, usability studies, phone interviews, and web statistics, providing multiple lines of evidence from which to draw conclusion and recommendations.In the session, we will explore how the NOAA Climate.gov teams used the literature review and new CIRES research to address underlying challenges to achieving the portal's goals. The research in these studies finds that people seek information in ways that are complex and that they do so by consulting a vast array of technologies. Improved and different modes of access to information have, throughout history, been led by technological innovation, but human behavior tends to be

  19. Comparative study on current trading system and online trading: the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Comparative study on current trading system and online trading: the case of ... of online trading and factors affecting its feasibility of implementation in ECX. ... The study found that there is significant capacity problem with major skills gap with ...

  20. Extending to seasonal scales the current usage of short range weather forecasts and climate projections for water management in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Camino, Ernesto; Voces, José; Sánchez, Eroteida; Navascues, Beatriz; Pouget, Laurent; Roldan, Tamara; Gómez, Manuel; Cabello, Angels; Comas, Pau; Pastor, Fernando; Concepción García-Gómez, M.°; José Gil, Juan; Gil, Delfina; Galván, Rogelio; Solera, Abel

    2016-04-01

    This presentation, first, briefly describes the current use of weather forecasts and climate projections delivered by AEMET for water management in Spain. The potential use of seasonal climate predictions for water -in particular dams- management is then discussed more in-depth, using a pilot experience carried out by a multidisciplinary group coordinated by AEMET and DG for Water of Spain. This initiative is being developed in the framework of the national implementation of the GFCS and the European project, EUPORIAS. Among the main components of this experience there are meteorological and hydrological observations, and an empirical seasonal forecasting technique that provides an ensemble of water reservoir inflows. These forecasted inflows feed a prediction model for the dam state that has been adapted for this purpose. The full system is being tested retrospectively, over several decades, for selected water reservoirs located in different Spanish river basins. The assessment includes an objective verification of the probabilistic seasonal forecasts using standard metrics, and the evaluation of the potential social and economic benefits, with special attention to drought and flooding conditions. The methodology of implementation of these seasonal predictions in the decision making process is being developed in close collaboration with final users participating in this pilot experience.

  1. Why classroom climate matters for children high in anxious solitude: A study of differential susceptibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Kathleen; Coplan, Robert J

    2018-03-01

    The goal of the current study was to examine the complex links among anxious solitude, classroom climate, engagement, achievement, and gender. In particular, drawing upon the differential susceptibility hypothesis (Belsky, 1997), we investigated if children high in anxious solitude were particularly sensitive and responsive to the classroom environment. Participants were N = 712 children in Grade 3, drawn from the National Institute of Child and Human Development (NICHD) Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development data set. Classroom climate and engagement were assessed using the Classroom Observation Scale (NICHD, 1998). Teachers completed the Teacher Report Form (Achenbach, 1991) as a measure of anxious solitude and the Academic Rating Scale (NICHD, 2010) as a measure of achievement. Hypothesized associations among variables were tested by way of a moderated-mediation model. Among the results, engagement was found to mediate the relation between classroom climate and achievement. In addition, anxious solitude and gender were found to moderate the relation between classroom climate and engagement. Support for the differential susceptibility hypothesis was found, suggesting that children high in anxious solitude may be more reactive (both positively and negatively) to elements of the classroom environment. In addition, gender differences were observed, indicating that boys may be more responsive to the classroom environment as compared with girls. Implications for future research and educational policies are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Tree-rings and climate: Implications for Great Basin paleoenvironmental studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graybill, D.A.; Rose, M.R.; Nials, F.L.

    1994-01-01

    The Quaternary Sciences Center of the Desert Research Institute is currently conducting a multi-phased study of floral, faunal, and geomorphic response to long- and short-term climate change and extremes in assessing Yucca Mountain's suitability as a high-level nuclear waste repository. Preliminary results of these studies indicate synchronous responses in late Holocene tree-ring, palynology and geomorphic records. A tree-ring chronology for paleoclimatic reconstruction is developed by collection of multiple cores from 20-60 living trees and a similar number of dead trees in a climate-sensitive location. Samples are cross-dated and every growth layer in each specimen is measured to the nearest .001 mm. The measured ring width series potentially contain a variety of climatic, biological, and anthropogenic signals. Each ring width series is subjected to a numerical standarization procedure that removes an age-related biological growth trend, reduces endogeneous and exogenous stand disturbance factors, and maximizes any climatic signal that is present. Each of these empirically defined components can be graphically portrayed and subjected to further analyses. The geophysical signal analysis techniques involved in the standarized protocol are well-documented and established. The final result is a tree-ring chronology that represents regional paleoclimatic variability over the time represented by the sample population

  3. An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Radley M.

    Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even

  4. Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helge Walentowski

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea, whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

  5. Studies to support the IPCC and other climate change discussions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwengels, P.

    1991-01-01

    Developing countries and multilateral development banks are recognizing that the capital requirements for increasing energy supply - particularly electricity - and the foreign exchange implications of increasing imports of fossil fuels will become a major constraint to continued economic development for many countries. Thus, for most countries, business-as-usual energy development is not sustainable on strictly economic terms. In addition, the inefficient fossil-fueled energy systems in developing countries are major contributors to the growing local and regional environmental problems in these nations. There is growing recognition in many countries that economic development must be environmentally sustainable as well, and that traditional energy development often does not meet this test. The industrialized countries are becoming concerned about the risks of global climate change. While recognizing that they themselves are the major historic contributors to greenhouse gas build-up, they also can see that rapid economic development in the developing world along traditional energy-intensive patterns could drive future growth in greenhouse gas emissions. The industrialized countries currently provide significant amounts of assistance to developing countries in the energy sector. The concerns about climate change provide strong incentives to these countries to intensify their energy-related assistance, to improve international cooperation in this area and, most importantly, to redirect energy assistance toward more efficient and cleaner technologies

  6. Determining climate change management priorities: A case study from Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeDee, Olivia E.; Ribic, Christine

    2015-01-01

    A burgeoning dialogue exists regarding how to allocate resources to maximize the likelihood of long-term biodiversity conservation within the context of climate change. To make effective decisions in natural resource management, an iterative, collaborative, and learning-based decision process may be more successful than a strictly consultative approach. One important, early step in a decision process is to identify priority species or systems. Although this promotes the conservation of select species or systems, it may inadvertently alter the future of non-target species and systems. We describe a process to screen terrestrial wildlife for potential sensitivity to climate change and then use the results to engage natural resource professionals in a process of identifying priorities for monitoring, research, and adaptation strategy implementation. We demonstrate this approach using a case study from Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, experts identified 23 out of 353 species with sufficient empirical research and management understanding to inform targeted action. Habitat management and management of hydrological conditions were the common strategies for targeted action. Although there may be an interest in adaptation strategy implementation for many species and systems, experts considered existing information inadequate to inform targeted action. According to experts, 40% of the vertebrate species in Wisconsin will require near-term intervention for climate adaptation. These results will inform state-wide conservation planning as well as regional efforts.

  7. Issues in Establishing Climate Sensitivity in Recent Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John T. Fasullo

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Numerous attempts have been made to constrain climate sensitivity with observations [1-10] (with [6] as LC09, [8] as SB11. While all of these attempts contain various caveats and sources of uncertainty, some efforts have been shown to contain major errors and are demonstrably incorrect. For example, multiple studies [11-13] separately addressed weaknesses in LC09 [6]. The work of Trenberth et al. [13], for instance, demonstrated a basic lack of robustness in the LC09 method that fundamentally undermined their results. Minor changes in that study’s subjective assumptions yielded major changes in its main conclusions. Moreover, Trenberth et al. [13] criticized the interpretation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO as an analogue for exploring the forced response of the climate system. In addition, as many cloud variations on monthly time scales result from internal atmospheric variability, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, cloud variability is not a deterministic response to surface temperatures. Nevertheless, many of the problems in LC09 [6] have been perpetuated, and Dessler [10] has pointed out similar issues with two more recent such attempts [7,8]. Here we briefly summarize more generally some of the pitfalls and issues involved in developing observational constraints on climate feedbacks. [...

  8. Ensembles modeling approach to study Climate Change impacts on Wheat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Mukhtar; Claudio, Stöckle O.; Nelson, Roger; Higgins, Stewart

    2017-04-01

    Simulations of crop yield under climate variability are subject to uncertainties, and quantification of such uncertainties is essential for effective use of projected results in adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study we evaluated the uncertainties related to crop-climate models using five crop growth simulation models (CropSyst, APSIM, DSSAT, STICS and EPIC) and 14 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP) of atmospheric CO2 (4.5 and 8.5 W m-2) in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA. The aim was to assess how different process-based crop models could be used accurately for estimation of winter wheat growth, development and yield. Firstly, all models were calibrated for high rainfall, medium rainfall, low rainfall and irrigated sites in the PNW using 1979-2010 as the baseline period. Response variables were related to farm management and soil properties, and included crop phenology, leaf area index (LAI), biomass and grain yield of winter wheat. All five models were run from 2000 to 2100 using the 14 GCMs and 2 RCPs to evaluate the effect of future climate (rainfall, temperature and CO2) on winter wheat phenology, LAI, biomass, grain yield and harvest index. Simulated time to flowering and maturity was reduced in all models except EPIC with some level of uncertainty. All models generally predicted an increase in biomass and grain yield under elevated CO2 but this effect was more prominent under rainfed conditions than irrigation. However, there was uncertainty in the simulation of crop phenology, biomass and grain yield under 14 GCMs during three prediction periods (2030, 2050 and 2070). We concluded that to improve accuracy and consistency in simulating wheat growth dynamics and yield under a changing climate, a multimodel ensemble approach should be used.

  9. Ecological impacts of atmospheric pollution and interactions with climate change in terrestrial ecosystems of the Mediterranean Basin: Current research and future directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochoa-Hueso, Raúl; Munzi, Silvana; Alonso, Rocío; Arróniz-Crespo, María; Avila, Anna; Bermejo, Victoria; Bobbink, Roland; Branquinho, Cristina; Concostrina-Zubiri, Laura; Cruz, Cristina; Cruz de Carvalho, Ricardo; De Marco, Alessandra; Dias, Teresa; Elustondo, David

    2017-01-01

    Mediterranean Basin ecosystems, their unique biodiversity, and the key services they provide are currently at risk due to air pollution and climate change, yet only a limited number of isolated and geographically-restricted studies have addressed this topic, often with contrasting results. Particularities of air pollution in this region include high O 3 levels due to high air temperatures and solar radiation, the stability of air masses, and dominance of dry over wet nitrogen deposition. Moreover, the unique abiotic and biotic factors (e.g., climate, vegetation type, relevance of Saharan dust inputs) modulating the response of Mediterranean ecosystems at various spatiotemporal scales make it difficult to understand, and thus predict, the consequences of human activities that cause air pollution in the Mediterranean Basin. Therefore, there is an urgent need to implement coordinated research and experimental platforms along with wider environmental monitoring networks in the region. In particular, a robust deposition monitoring network in conjunction with modelling estimates is crucial, possibly including a set of common biomonitors (ideally cryptogams, an important component of the Mediterranean vegetation), to help refine pollutant deposition maps. Additionally, increased attention must be paid to functional diversity measures in future air pollution and climate change studies to establish the necessary link between biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services in Mediterranean ecosystems. Through a coordinated effort, the Mediterranean scientific community can fill the above-mentioned gaps and reach a greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying the combined effects of air pollution and climate change in the Mediterranean Basin. - Highlights: • Mediterranean Basin ecosystems are at risk due to air pollution and climate change. • A more robust monitoring network in conjunction with modelling estimates is crucial. • Monitoring networks should

  10. Simulated Extreme Prepitation Indices over Northeast Brasil in Current Climate and Future Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wender Santiago Marinho, Marcos; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Cassain Sales, Domingo; Oliveira Guimarães, Sullyandro; Mariano da Silva, Emerson; das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation indices, for present and future modeled climates over Northeast of Brazil (NEB), from CORDEX simulations over the domain of Tropical Americas. The period for the model validation was from 1989-2007, using data from the European Center (ECWMF) Reanalysis, ERA-INTERIM, as input to drive the regional model (RAMS 6.0). Reanalysis data were assimilated via both lateral boundaries and the entire domain (a much weaker "central nudging"). Six indices of extreme precipitation were calculated over NEB: the average number of days above 10, 20 and 30 mm in one year (R10, R20, R30), the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) and the maximum rainfall in five consecutive days (RX5). Those indices were compared against two independent databases: MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission). After validation, climate simulations were performed for the present climate (1985-2005) and short-term (2015-2035), mid-term (2045-2065) and long-term (2079 to 2099) future climates for two scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, nesting RAMS into HadGEM2-ES global model (a participant of CMIP5). Along with the indices, we also calculated Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) to study the behavior of daily precipitation in the present and by the end of the 21st century (2079 to 2099) to assess possible changes under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The regional model is capable of representing relatively well the extreme precipitation indices for current climate, but there is some difficulties in performing a proper validation since the observed databases disagree significantly. Future projections show significant changes in most extreme indices. Rnn generally tend to increase, especially under RCP8.5. More significant changes are projected for the long-term period, under RCP8.5, which shows a pronounced R30 enhancement over northern states. CDD tends

  11. Groundwater and climate change in Africa : review of recharge studies

    OpenAIRE

    Bonsor, H.C.; MacDonald, A.M.

    2010-01-01

    The review of recharge studies was conducted as part of a one year DFID-funded research programme, aimed at improving understanding of the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources and local livelihoods – see http://www.bgs.ac.uk/GWResilience/. The review is one of a series of components within the project. The overall outputs of the project are: Two hydrogeological case studies in West and East Africa – which assess the storage and availability of groundwater in different aquifers a...

  12. An idealized study of the impact of extratropical climate change on El Nino-Southern Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Qiong [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Science, Beijing (China); Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, Beijing (China); Zhong, Yafang [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States); Wang, Dongxiao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Laboratory of Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics, Guangzhou (China); South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Guangzhou (China)

    2005-12-01

    Extratropical impacts on the tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are studied in a coupled climate model. Idealized experiments show that the remote impact of the extratropics on the equatorial thermocline through oceanic tunnel can substantially modulate the ENSO in both magnitude and frequency. First of all, an extratropical warming can be conveyed to the equator by the mean subduction current, resulting in a warming of the equatorial thermocline. Second, the extratropical warming can weaken the Hadley cells, which in turn slow down the mean shallow meridional overturning circulations in the upper Pacific, reducing the equatorward cold water supply and the equatorial upwelling. These oceanic dynamic processes would weaken the stratification of the equatorial thermocline and retard a buildup (purge) of excess heat content along the equator, and finally result in a weaker and longer ENSO cycle. This study highlights a nonlocal mechanism in which ENSO behavior is related to the extratropical climate conditions. (orig.)

  13. Practical guidance material for the development, energy and climate country studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halsnaes, K.; Garg, A.; Olhoff, A.; Denton, F.

    2006-10-15

    The document is developed as part of the Development, Energy and Climate project in order to facilitate methodological consistency and the use of common assumptions in national case studies in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Senegal and South Africa that are conducted as part of the project. In addition to this document the project and country studies are also based on in depth thematic work in three areas namely; 1) Development pathways and climate change; 2) Assessment of Policy Instruments in the Context of Current Market Structure, Institutional Capacities and Risks in Developing Countries; 3) Climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in the energy sector with a special emphasis given to linkages between adaptation and mitigation policies. The Development, Energy, and Climate project will identify promising energy policy options in the participating countries that are consistent with their national sustainable development objectives. The project teams from Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Senegal will examine how energy sector policies can be evaluated using specific sustainable development indicators and existing analytical approaches and tools relevant to the countries. The country studies will address energy sector issues, adaptation policies, and alternative scenarios for technology penetration processes. The policy options and the sustainable development impacts of implementing these will be discussed in national stakeholder dialogues with broad participation of government, private sector and NGOs. Cross-country interactions about conceptual and common methodological issues will be covered in three thematic papers. The project will produce a synthesis of the country case studies as an input to various international processes in order to build support for approaches that integrate sustainable development, energy and climate policies. (au)

  14. Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads Cedergreen; Post, Eric

    2004-01-01

    Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns......Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns...

  15. Advancing Collaborative Climate Studies through Globally Distributed Geospatial Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, R.; Percivall, G.

    2009-12-01

    (note: acronym glossary at end of abstract) For scientists to have confidence in the veracity of data sets and computational processes not under their control, operational transparency must be much greater than previously required. Being able to have a universally understood and machine-readable language for describing such things as the completeness of metadata, data provenance and uncertainty, and the discrete computational steps in a complex process take on increased importance. OGC has been involved with technological issues associated with climate change since 2005 when we, along with the IEEE Committee on Earth Observation, began a close working relationship with GEO and GEOSS (http://earthobservations.org). GEO/GEOS provide the technology platform to GCOS who in turn represents the earth observation community to UNFCCC. OGC and IEEE are the organizers of the GEO/GEOSS Architecture Implementation Pilot (see http://www.ogcnetwork.net/AIpilot). This continuing work involves closely working with GOOS (Global Ocean Observing System) and WMO (World Meteorological Organization). This session reports on the findings of recent work within the OGC’s community of software developers and users to apply geospatial web services to the climate studies domain. The value of this work is to evolve OGC web services, moving from data access and query to geo-processing and workflows. Two projects will be described, the GEOSS API-2 and the CCIP. AIP is a task of the GEOSS Architecture and Data Committee. During its duration, two GEO Tasks defined the project: AIP-2 began as GEO Task AR-07-02, to lead the incorporation of contributed components consistent with the GEOSS Architecture using a GEO Web Portal and a Clearinghouse search facility to access services through GEOSS Interoperability Arrangements in support of the GEOSS Societal Benefit Areas. AIP-2 concluded as GEOS Task AR-09-01b, to develop and pilot new process and infrastructure components for the GEOSS Common

  16. A Comparative Frequency Analysis of Maximum Daily Rainfall for a SE Asian Region under Current and Future Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Velautham Daksiya

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of changing climate on the frequency of daily rainfall extremes in Jakarta, Indonesia, is analysed and quantified. The study used three different models to assess the changes in rainfall characteristics. The first method involves the use of the weather generator LARS-WG to quantify changes between historical and future daily rainfall maxima. The second approach consists of statistically downscaling general circulation model (GCM output based on historical empirical relationships between GCM output and station rainfall. Lastly, the study employed recent statistically downscaled global gridded rainfall projections to characterize climate change impact rainfall structure. Both annual and seasonal rainfall extremes are studied. The results show significant changes in annual maximum daily rainfall, with an average increase as high as 20% in the 100-year return period daily rainfall. The uncertainty arising from the use of different GCMs was found to be much larger than the uncertainty from the emission scenarios. Furthermore, the annual and wet seasonal analyses exhibit similar behaviors with increased future rainfall, but the dry season is not consistent across the models. The GCM uncertainty is larger in the dry season compared to annual and wet season.

  17. Effects of Climatic Region on Peritonitis Risk, Microbiology, Treatment, and Outcomes: a Multicenter Registry Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Yeoungjee; Badve, Sunil V.; Hawley, Carmel M.; McDonald, Stephen P.; Brown, Fiona G.; Boudville, Neil; Wiggins, Kathryn J.; Bannister, Kym M.; Clayton, Philip; Johnson, David W.

    2013-01-01

    ♦ Background: The impact of climatic variations on peritoneal dialysis (PD)-related peritonitis has not been studied in detail. The aim of the current study was to determine whether various climatic zones influenced the probability of occurrence or the clinical outcomes of peritonitis. ♦ Methods: Using ANZDATA registry data, the study in cluded all Australian patients receiving PD between 1 October 2003 and 31 December 2008. Climatic regions were defined according to the Köppen classification. ♦ Results: The overall peritonitis rate was 0.59 episodes per patient-year. Most of the patients lived in Temperate regions (65%), with others residing in Subtropical (26%), Tropical (6%), and Other climatic regions (Desert, 0.6%; Grassland, 2.3%). Compared with patients in Temperate regions, those in Tropical regions demonstrated significantly higher overall peritonitis rates and a shorter time to a first peritonitis episode [adjusted hazard ratio: 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01 to 1.31]. Culture-negative peritonitis was significantly less likely in Tropical regions [adjusted odds ratio (OR): 0.42; 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.73]; its occurrence in Subtropical and Other regions was comparable to that in Temperate regions. Fungal peritonitis was independently associated with Tropical regions (OR: 2.18; 95% CI: 1.22 to 3.90) and Other regions (OR: 3.46; 95% CI: 1.73 to 6.91), where rates of antifungal prophylaxis were also lower. Outcomes after first peritonitis episodes were comparable in all groups. ♦ Conclusions: Tropical regions were associated with a higher overall peritonitis rate (including fungal peritonitis) and a shorter time to a first peritonitis episode. Augmented peritonitis prophylactic measures such as antifungal therapy and exit-site care should be considered in PD patients residing in Tropical climates. PMID:22942270

  18. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...

  19. Water Resources Status and Availability Assessment in Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios for Beas River Basin of North Western Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, S. P.; Thakur, P. K.; Garg, V.; Nikam, B. R.; Chouksey, A.; Dhote, P.; Bhattacharya, T.

    2016-10-01

    daily surface wind speed. The GFDL model also gives validation phase scenarios from 2006 to 2015, which are used to test the overall model performance with current data. The current assessment made by hydrological water balance based approach has given reasonable good results in Beas river basin. The main limitation of this study is lack of full representation of glacier melt flow using fully energy balance model. This component will be addressed in coming time and it will be integrated with tradition hydrological and snowmelt runoff models. The other limitation of current study is dependence on NCEP or other reanalysis of climate forcing data for hydrological modelling, this leads to mismatch between actual and simulated water balance components. This problem can be addressed if more ground based and fine resolution grid based hydro meteorological data are used as input forcing data for hydrological modelling.

  20. WATER RESOURCES STATUS AND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT IN CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR BEAS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH WESTERN HIMALAYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Aggarwal

    2016-10-01

    precipitation and daily surface wind speed. The GFDL model also gives validation phase scenarios from 2006 to 2015, which are used to test the overall model performance with current data. The current assessment made by hydrological water balance based approach has given reasonable good results in Beas river basin. The main limitation of this study is lack of full representation of glacier melt flow using fully energy balance model. This component will be addressed in coming time and it will be integrated with tradition hydrological and snowmelt runoff models. The other limitation of current study is dependence on NCEP or other reanalysis of climate forcing data for hydrological modelling, this leads to mismatch between actual and simulated water balance components. This problem can be addressed if more ground based and fine resolution grid based hydro meteorological data are used as input forcing data for hydrological modelling.

  1. Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae in climate change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Moo-Llanes

    Full Text Available Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i potential change in niche breadth, ii direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3, for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%, while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

  2. Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N.; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A.; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M.

    2013-01-01

    Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. PMID:24069478

  3. Study of runaway current generation following disruptions in KSTAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Z Y; Kim, W C; Yu, Y W; England, A C; Yoo, J W; Hahn, S H; Yoon, S W; Lee, K D; Oh, Y K; Kwak, J G; Kwon, M

    2013-01-01

    The high fraction of runaway current conversion following disruptions has an important effect on the first wall for next-generation tokamaks. Because of the potentially severe consequences of a large full current runaway beam on the first wall in an unmitigated disruption, runaway suppression is given a high priority. The behavior of runaway currents both in spontaneous disruptions and in D 2 massive gas injection (MGI) shutdown experiments is investigated in the KSTAR tokamak. The experiments in KSTAR show that the toroidal magnetic field threshold, B T >2 T, for runaway generation is not absolute. A high fraction of runaway current conversion following spontaneous disruptions is observed at a much lower toroidal magnetic field of B T = 1.3 T. A dedicated fast valve for high-pressure gas injection with 39.7 bar is developed for the study of disruptions. A study of runaway current parameters shows that the conversion efficiency of pre-disruptive plasma currents into runaway current can reach over 80% both in spontaneous disruptions and in D 2 MGI shutdown experiments in KSTAR. (paper)

  4. Tectonic, volcanic, and climatic geomorphology study of the Sierras Pampeanas Andes, northwestern Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, A. L.; Strecker, M. R.; Fielding, E. J.

    1984-01-01

    A proposed analysis of Shuttle Imaging Radar-B (SIR-B) data extends current research in the Sierras Pampeanas and the Puna of northwestern Argentina to the determination - by the digital analysis of mountain-front sinuousity - of the relative age and amount of fault movement along mountain fronts of the late-Cenozoic Sierras Pampeanas basement blocks; the determination of the age and history of the boundary across the Andes at about 27 S latitude between continuing volcanism to the north and inactive volcanism to the south; and the determination of the age and extent of Pleistocene glaciation in the High Sierras, as well as the comparative importance of climatic change and tectonic movements in shaping the landscape. The integration of these studies into other ongoing geology projects contributes to the understanding of landform development in this active tectonic environment and helps distinguish between climatic and tectonic effects on landforms.

  5. Preparing for climate change regulation : an assessment of the current state of date reliability in the Canadian electrical industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schuh, C.

    2003-01-01

    This presentation provided an overview of current Canadian greenhouse gas (GHG) reporting requirements, predictions about GHG regulations, and the current state of GHGs data reliability in the Canadian electrical industry. The author argued that while potential management strategies are necessary, they are not sufficient to meet Kyoto or similar types of initiatives because they do not provide incentives for reductions, they do not establish accountability, nor do they encourage reliable data. It was predicted that the first climate change regulation will be a sectoral agreement enacted at the federal/provincial level. It was also predicted that future regulations will include a requirement to report GHG emissions in a reliable manner and that regulators will use the data to track performance. The final prediction was that the onus will be on the companies to prove that the data is reliable as regulators will have limited resources to check the data. It was noted that the current state of data is not suitable for analytical testing because of a lack of clear definitions, a lack of industry comparison, inability to compare between companies, inability to compare between different types of power generation, and the inability to compare between years. It was suggested that data reliability could be improved by having the regulators review and monitor the reported data, or by having a third party review and provide assurance on the reported data. It was concluded that there will have to be agreement at the industry level on common measurement and calculation methodology, as well as an agreement on a common scope of reporting. 4 figs

  6. A solar radiation model for use in climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Ming-Dah

    1992-01-01

    A solar radiation routine is developed for use in climate studies that includes absorption and scattering due to ozone, water vapor, oxygen, carbon dioxide, clouds, and aerosols. Rayleigh scattering is also included. Broadband parameterization is used to compute the absorption by water vapor in a clear atmosphere, and the k-distribution method is applied to compute fluxes in a scattering atmosphere. The reflectivity and transmissivity of a scattering layer are computed analytically using the delta-four-stream discrete-ordinate approximation. The two-stream adding method is then applied to compute fluxes for a composite of clear and scattering layers. Compared to the results of high spectral resolution and detailed multiple-scattering calculations, fluxes and heating rate are accurately computed to within a few percent. The high accuracy of the flux and heating-rate calculations is achieved with a reasonable amount of computing time. With the UV and visible region grouped into four bands, this solar radiation routine is useful not only for climate studies but also for studies on photolysis in the upper atmosphere and photosynthesis in the biosphere.

  7. Current status of studies on temperature fluctuation phenomena in LMFRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohshima, H.; Muramatsu, T.; Kobayashi, J.; Yamaguchi, A.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes the current status of studies being performed in PNC on temperature fluctuation phenomena occurring in fast reactors. The studies concentrate on four problems: thermal stratification, thermal striping, core-plenum interaction and free surface sloshing. Both experimental and analytical approaches to reveal these phenomena and to establish design and safety evaluation methods are presented together with future works. (author)

  8. Study of landscape change under forest harvesting and climate warming-induced fire disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. He Hong; David J. Mladenoff; Eric J. Gustafson

    2002-01-01

    We examined tree species responses under forest harvesting and an increased fire disturbance scenario due to climate warming in northern Wisconsin where northern hardwood and boreal forests are currently predominant. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was simulated with a gap model, which integrates soil, climate and species data, stratified by...

  9. Study on the climate system and mass transport by a climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Numaguti, A.; Sugata, S.; Takahashi, M.; Nakajima, T.; Sumi, A.

    1997-01-01

    The Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), an organ of the National Institute for Environmental Studies of the Environment Agency of Japan, was established in October 1990 to contribute broadly to the scientific understanding of global change, and to the elucidation of and solution for our pressing environmental problems. CGER conducts environmental research from interdisciplinary, multiagency, and international perspective, provides research support facilities such as a supercomputer and databases, and offers its own data from long-term monitoring of the global environment. In March 1992, CGER installed a supercomputer system (NEC SX-3, Model 14) to facilitate research on global change. The system is open to environmental researchers worldwide. Proposed research programs are evaluated by the Supercomputer Steering Committee which consists of leading scientists in climate modeling, atmospheric chemistry, oceanic circulation, and computer science. After project approval, authorization for system usage is provided. In 1995 and 1996, several research proposals were designated as priority research and allocated larger shares of computer resources. The CGER supercomputer monograph report Vol. 3 is a report of priority research of CGER's supercomputer. The report covers the description of CCSR-NIES atmospheric general circulation model, lagragian general circulation based on the time-scale of particle motion, and ability of the CCSR-NIES atmospheric general circulation model in the stratosphere. The results obtained from these three studies are described in three chapters. We hope this report provides you with useful information on the global environmental research conducted on our supercomputer

  10. Numerical study of gravity currents in a channel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, D.

    1985-01-01

    A three-dimensional, primitive-equation model was used to study gravity currents produced by instantaneous releases of a buoyant fluid in a rectangular channel. Without rotation, the gravity current passes through two distinct phases: an initial adjustment phase in which the front speed is constant, and an eventual self-similar phase in which the front speed decreases with time. With rotation, the gravity current is confined to the right-hand wall, forming a coastal jet. The initial front-speed is constant; however, the front speed decreases rapidly due to strong mixing at the horizontal edge of the gravity current. Also, with rotation, part of the buoyant fluid is trapped near the source region, forming an anticyclonic vortex

  11. Study of the Weak Charged Hadronic Current in b Decays

    CERN Document Server

    Acciarri, M; Aguilar-Benítez, M; Ahlen, S P; Alpat, B; Alcaraz, J; Alemanni, G; Allaby, James V; Aloisio, A; Alverson, G; Alviggi, M G; Ambrosi, G; Anderhub, H; Andreev, V P; Angelescu, T; Anselmo, F; Antreasyan, D; Arefev, A; Azemoon, T; Aziz, T; Bagnaia, P; Baksay, L; Ball, R C; Banerjee, S; Banicz, K; Barillère, R; Barone, L; Bartalini, P; Baschirotto, A; Basile, M; Battiston, R; Bay, A; Becattini, F; Becker, U; Behner, F; Berdugo, J; Berges, P; Bertucci, B; Betev, B L; Bhattacharya, S; Biasini, M; Biland, A; Bilei, G M; Blaising, J J; Blyth, S C; Bobbink, Gerjan J; Böck, R K; Böhm, A; Borgia, B; Boucham, A; Bourilkov, D; Bourquin, Maurice; Boutigny, D; Branson, J G; Brigljevic, V; Brock, I C; Buffini, A; Buijs, A; Burger, J D; Burger, W J; Busenitz, J K; Buytenhuijs, A O; Cai, X D; Campanelli, M; Capell, M; Cara Romeo, G; Caria, M; Carlino, G; Cartacci, A M; Casaus, J; Castellini, G; Cavallari, F; Cavallo, N; Cecchi, C; Cerrada-Canales, M; Cesaroni, F; Chamizo-Llatas, M; Chan, A; Chang, Y H; Chaturvedi, U K; Chemarin, M; Chen, A; Chen, G; Chen, G M; Chen, H F; Chen, H S; Chen, M; Chiefari, G; Chien, C Y; Choi, M T; Cifarelli, Luisa; Cindolo, F; Civinini, C; Clare, I; Clare, R; Cohn, H O; Coignet, G; Colijn, A P; Colino, N; Commichau, V; Costantini, S; Cotorobai, F; de la Cruz, B; Csilling, Akos; Dai, T S; D'Alessandro, R; De Asmundis, R; De Boeck, H; Degré, A; Deiters, K; Denes, P; De Notaristefani, F; DiBitonto, Daryl; Diemoz, M; Van Dierendonck, D N; Di Lodovico, F; Dionisi, C; Dittmar, Michael; Dominguez, A; Doria, A; Dorne, I; Dova, M T; Drago, E; Duchesneau, D; Duinker, P; Durán, I; Dutta, S; Easo, S; Efremenko, Yu V; El-Mamouni, H; Engler, A; Eppling, F J; Erné, F C; Ernenwein, J P; Extermann, Pierre; Fabre, M; Faccini, R; Falciano, S; Favara, A; Fay, J; Fedin, O; Felcini, Marta; Fenyi, B; Ferguson, T; Fernández, D; Ferroni, F; Fesefeldt, H S; Fiandrini, E; Field, J H; Filthaut, Frank; Fisher, P H; Forconi, G; Fredj, L; Freudenreich, Klaus; Furetta, C; Galaktionov, Yu; Ganguli, S N; García-Abia, P; Gau, S S; Gentile, S; Gerald, J; Gheordanescu, N; Giagu, S; Goldfarb, S; Goldstein, J; Gong, Z F; Gougas, Andreas; Gratta, Giorgio; Grünewald, M W; Gupta, V K; Gurtu, A; Gutay, L J; Hartmann, B; Hasan, A; Hatzifotiadou, D; Hebbeker, T; Hervé, A; Van Hoek, W C; Hofer, H; Hoorani, H; Hou, S R; Hu, G; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janssen, H; Jenkes, K; Jin, B N; Jones, L W; de Jong, P; Josa-Mutuberria, I; Kasser, A; Khan, R A; Kamrad, D; Kamyshkov, Yu A; Kapustinsky, J S; Karyotakis, Yu; Kaur, M; Kienzle-Focacci, M N; Kim, D; Kim, J K; Kim, S C; Kim, Y G; Kinnison, W W; Kirkby, A; Kirkby, D; Kirkby, Jasper; Kiss, D; Kittel, E W; Klimentov, A; König, A C; Korolko, I; Koutsenko, V F; Krämer, R W; Krenz, W; Kuijten, H; Kunin, A; Ladrón de Guevara, P; Landi, G; Lapoint, C; Lassila-Perini, K M; Laurikainen, P; Lebeau, M; Lebedev, A; Lebrun, P; Lecomte, P; Lecoq, P; Le Coultre, P; Lee Jae Sik; Lee, K Y; Leggett, C; Le Goff, J M; Leiste, R; Leonardi, E; Levchenko, P M; Li Chuan; Lieb, E H; Lin, W T; Linde, Frank L; Lista, L; Liu, Z A; Lohmann, W; Longo, E; Lu, W; Lü, Y S; Lübelsmeyer, K; Luci, C; Luckey, D; Luminari, L; Lustermann, W; Ma Wen Gan; Maity, M; Majumder, G; Malgeri, L; Malinin, A; Maña, C; Mangla, S; Marchesini, P A; Marin, A; Martin, J P; Marzano, F; Massaro, G G G; McNally, D; Mele, S; Merola, L; Meschini, M; Metzger, W J; Von der Mey, M; Mi, Y; Mihul, A; Van Mil, A J W; Mirabelli, G; Mnich, J; Molnár, P; Monteleoni, B; Moore, R; Morganti, S; Moulik, T; Mount, R; Müller, S; Muheim, F; Nagy, E; Nahn, S; Napolitano, M; Nessi-Tedaldi, F; Newman, H; Nippe, A; Nisati, A; Nowak, H; Opitz, H; Organtini, G; Ostonen, R; Pandoulas, D; Paoletti, S; Paolucci, P; Park, H K; Pascale, G; Passaleva, G; Patricelli, S; Paul, T; Pauluzzi, M; Paus, C; Pauss, Felicitas; Peach, D; Pei, Y J; Pensotti, S; Perret-Gallix, D; Petrak, S; Pevsner, A; Piccolo, D; Pieri, M; Pinto, J C; Piroué, P A; Pistolesi, E; Plyaskin, V; Pohl, M; Pozhidaev, V; Postema, H; Produit, N; Prokofev, D; Prokofiev, D O; Rahal-Callot, G; Rancoita, P G; Rattaggi, M; Raven, G; Razis, P A; Read, K; Ren, D; Rescigno, M; Reucroft, S; Van Rhee, T; Riemann, S; Riemers, B C; Riles, K; Rind, O; Ro, S; Robohm, A; Rodin, J; Rodríguez-Calonge, F J; Roe, B P; Romero, L; Rosier-Lees, S; Rosselet, P; Van Rossum, W; Roth, S; Rubio, Juan Antonio; Rykaczewski, H; Salicio, J; Sánchez, E; Santocchia, A; Sarakinos, M E; Sarkar, S; Sassowsky, M; Sauvage, G; Schäfer, C; Shchegelskii, V; Schmidt-Kärst, S; Schmitz, D; Schmitz, P; Schneegans, M; Scholz, N; Schopper, Herwig Franz; Schotanus, D J; Schwenke, J; Schwering, G; Sciacca, C; Sciarrino, D; Sens, Johannes C; Servoli, L; Shevchenko, S; Shivarov, N; Shoutko, V; Shukla, J; Shumilov, E; Shvorob, A V; Siedenburg, T; Son, D; Sopczak, André; Soulimov, V; Smith, B; Spillantini, P; Steuer, M; Stickland, D P; Stone, H; Stoyanov, B; Strässner, A; Strauch, K; Sudhakar, K; Sultanov, G G; Sun, L Z; Susinno, G F; Suter, H; Swain, J D; Tang, X W; Tauscher, Ludwig; Taylor, L; Ting, Samuel C C; Ting, S M; Tonutti, M; Tonwar, S C; Tóth, J; Tully, C; Tuchscherer, H; Tung, K L; Uchida, Y; Ulbricht, J; Uwer, U; Valente, E; Van de Walle, R T; Vesztergombi, G; Vetlitskii, I; Viertel, Gert M; Vivargent, M; Völkert, R; Vogel, H; Vogt, H; Vorobev, I; Vorobyov, A A; Vorvolakos, A; Wadhwa, M; Wallraff, W; Wang, J C; Wang, X L; Wang, Z M; Weber, A; Wittgenstein, F; Wu, S X; Wynhoff, S; Xu, J; Xu, Z Z; Yang, B Z; Yang, C G; Yao, X Y; Ye, J B; Yeh, S C; You, J M; Zalite, A; Zalite, Yu; Zemp, P; Zeng, Y; Zhang, Z; Zhang, Z P; Zhou, B; Zhou, Y; Zhu, G Y; Zhu, R Y; Zichichi, Antonino; Ziegler, F

    1997-01-01

    Charged and neutral particle multiplicities of jets associated with identified semileptonic and hadronic b decays are studied. The observed differences between these jets are used to determine the inclusive properties of the weak charged hadronic current. The average charged particle multiplicity of the weak charged hadronic current in b decays is measured for the first time to be 2.69$\\pm$0.07(stat.)$\\pm$0.14(syst.). This result is in good agreement with the JETSET hadronization model of the weak charged hadronic current if 40$\\pm$17\\% of the produced mesons are light--flavored tensor (L=1) mesons. This level of tensor meson production is consistent with the measurement of the $\\pi^0$ multiplicity in the weak charged hadronic current in b decays. \\end{abstract}

  12. Comparative study of different stochastic weather generators for long-term climate data simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is one of the single most important factors affecting watershed ecosystems and water resources. The effect of climate variability and change has been studied extensively in some places; in many places, however, assessments are hampered by limited availability of long term continuous climate ...

  13. School Climate, Family Structure, and Academic Achievement: A Study of Moderation Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Malley, Meagan; Voight, Adam; Renshaw, Tyler L.; Eklund, Katie

    2015-01-01

    School climate has been lauded for its relationship to a host of desirable academic, behavioral, and social-emotional outcomes for youth. The present study tested the hypothesis that school climate counteracts youths' home-school risk by examining the moderating effects of students' school climate perceptions on the relationship between family…

  14. 75 FR 51806 - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-23

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9192-2; Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-ORD-2010-0701] Climate Change... period for the draft document titled, ``Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of... vulnerability to future climate change. The report is intended to illustrate the types of analyses, models, and...

  15. Critical current studies of a HTS rectangular coil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhong, Z. [Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge (United Kingdom); Chudy, M., E-mail: Michal.chudy@stuba.sk [Graduate School of Technology Management, University of Pretoria (South Africa); Institute of Power and Applied Electrical Engineering, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava (Slovakia); Ruiz, H.S. [Department of Engineering, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH (United Kingdom); Zhang, X.; Coombs, T. [Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2017-05-15

    Highlights: • Unique square pancake coil was manufactured. • Measurements in relatively high magnetic field were performed. • Different sections of the coil were characterized. • Parts of the coil which are limiting critical current were identified. - Abstract: Nowadays, superconducting high field magnets are used in numerous applications due to their superior properties. High temperature superconductors (HTS) are usually used for production of circular pancake or racetrack coils. However different geometries of HTS coils might be required for some specific applications. In this study, the HTS coil wound on a rectangular frame was fully characterized in homogeneous DC background field. The study contains measurements of critical current angular dependencies. The critical current of the entire coil and two selected strands under different magnitudes and orientations of external magnetic fields are measured. The critical regions of the coil in different angular regimes are determined. This study brings better understanding of the in- field performance of HTS coils wound on frames with right-angles.

  16. Climate change adaptation strategies by local farmers in Kilombero ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article examines current adaptation strategies developed by local farmers against climate change effects in Kilombero District. Research questions guided the study include; what are the past and current climatic stresses? What are local farmers' perception on climate change and response to the adverse climatic ...

  17. Out-patient management and non-attendance in the current economic climate. How best to manage our resources?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hennessy, D

    2010-03-01

    Outpatient non-attendance is a considerable source of inefficiency in the health service, wasting time, resources and potentially lengthening waiting lists, Given the current economic climate, methods need to be employed to reduce non-attendance. The aim was to analyse outpatient non-attendance and determine what factors influence attendance. A prospective audit over a two-month period to a tertiary-referral Urological service was performed to determine the clinical and demographic profile of non-attendees. Of 737 appointments, 148 (20%) patients did not attend (DNA). A benign urological condition was evident in 116 cases (78%). This group of patients also accounted for the majority of new patients not attending 40\\/47, returning patients not attending 101\\/148 and the majority of patients who missed multiple appointments 43\\/49. Patients with benign conditions make up the majority of clinic non-attendance. Consideration may be given to discharging such patients back to their general practitioner after one unexplained non-attendance until other alternatives of follow up are available.

  18. Radiation climate and water use studies in intercropping systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, A.K.; Nathan, K.K.; Singh, A.K.

    1985-01-01

    A study was conducted to find out radiation climate and water use in intercropping in order to select suitable crop components. Mustard, gram and pea were grown as intercrops of wheat at four irrigation water depth (IW) and cumulative pan evaporation (CPE) ratios. The photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) was again observed to be maximum (0.73 to 0.94 langley min -1 ) in mustard as compared to pure wheat (0.75 - 0.84 langley min -1 ), pea (0.20 - 0.84 langley min -1 ) and gram (0.64 - 0.82 langley min -1 ) in the mixture. Total radiation in wheat (1.33 - 1.5 langley min -1 ) with mustard as intercrop was very close to that of pure wheat. Light intensity (LI) was also higher (84.0 - 107.6 x 1000 lux) in mustard compared to pea (77.5 - 98.0 x 1000 lux) and gram (95.8 - 104.4 x 1000 lux). Wheat and mustard mixture was more productive than other intercrops with better water use efficiency and maximum utilization of radiation climate

  19. Study of Grants, new Mexico, uranium miners: current status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samet, J.M.; Morgan, M.V.; Buechley, R.W.; Key, C.R.; Valdivia, A.A.

    1981-01-01

    The Uranium Epidemiology Study at the University of New Mexico was initiated in 1977 with the objective of assessing health effects of uranium mining in the Grants, New Mexico, area. The planned approach was a cohort study of mortality that would capitalize on the availability of health records at the Grants Clinic. The first year's work confirmed the study's feasibility (Buechley, 1979). Subsequent efforts have focused on the health and exposure data base and comprehensive follow-up. A retrospective cohort study of early miners is in progress; a prospective cohort study of miners who began working under the current federal standard is planned. This report will summarize the current status of the Uranium Epidemiology Study

  20. Long-term bird study records Arctic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zielinski, Sarah

    Alaska's summer of 2005 was the second warmest on record there, with a record retreat of arctic pack ice. As Alaskan temperatures gradually increase, artic birds, such as the black guillemots of Cooper Island, near Barrow, Alaska, are experiencing drastic habitat changes. Though these small black and white birds—the subjects of a long-term study of climate change—fared better this year than they have in the recent past (due to local cool conditions), they are nonetheless struggling to adapt as their artic island summer home becomes subarctic.George Divokyan ornithologist at the Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, discovered the Cooper Island colony of guillemots in the early 1970s and has spent every summer since 1975 there studying these birds. He presented his latest research during a 3 November talk in Washington, D.C.

  1. Decision-relevant evaluation of climate models: A case study of chill hours in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagannathan, K. A.; Jones, A. D.; Kerr, A. C.

    2017-12-01

    The past decade has seen a proliferation of different climate datasets with over 60 climate models currently in use. Comparative evaluation and validation of models can assist practitioners chose the most appropriate models for adaptation planning. However, such assessments are usually conducted for `climate metrics' such as seasonal temperature, while sectoral decisions are often based on `decision-relevant outcome metrics' such as growing degree days or chill hours. Since climate models predict different metrics with varying skill, the goal of this research is to conduct a bottom-up evaluation of model skill for `outcome-based' metrics. Using chill hours (number of hours in winter months where temperature is lesser than 45 deg F) in Fresno, CA as a case, we assess how well different GCMs predict the historical mean and slope of chill hours, and whether and to what extent projections differ based on model selection. We then compare our results with other climate-based evaluations of the region, to identify similarities and differences. For the model skill evaluation, historically observed chill hours were compared with simulations from 27 GCMs (and multiple ensembles). Model skill scores were generated based on a statistical hypothesis test of the comparative assessment. Future projections from RCP 8.5 runs were evaluated, and a simple bias correction was also conducted. Our analysis indicates that model skill in predicting chill hour slope is dependent on its skill in predicting mean chill hours, which results from the non-linear nature of the chill metric. However, there was no clear relationship between the models that performed well for the chill hour metric and those that performed well in other temperature-based evaluations (such winter minimum temperature or diurnal temperature range). Further, contrary to conclusions from other studies, we also found that the multi-model mean or large ensemble mean results may not always be most appropriate for this

  2. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engels Stefan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate, highlighting the effects of solar forcing on a range of timescales. On a decadal timescale, instrumental measurements as well as historical records show the effects of the 11-year Schwabe cycle on climate. The variation in total solar irradiance that is associated with a Schwabe cycle is only ~1 W m−2 between a solar minimum and a maximum, but winter and spring temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere show a response even to this small-scale variability. There is a large body of evidence from palaeoclimatic reconstructions that shows the influence of solar activity on a centennial to millennial timescale. We highlight a period of low solar activity starting at 2800 years before present when Europe experienced a shift to colder and wetter climate conditions. The spatial pattern of climate change that can be recognized in the palaeoclimatological data is in line with the suggested pattern of climate change as simulated by climate models. Millennial-scale climate oscillations can be recognized in sediment records from the Atlantic Ocean as well as in records of lake-level fluctuations in southeastern France. These oscillations coincide with variation in 14C production as recognized in the atmospheric 14C record (which is a proxy-record for solar activity, suggesting that Earth’s climate is sensitive to changes in solar activity on a millennial timescale as well.

  3. The influence of causal knowledge on the willingness to change attitude towards climate change: results from an empirical study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasquier, Giulia; Pongiglione, Francesca

    2017-09-01

    Climate change is one of the significant global challenges currently facing humanity. Even though its seriousness seems to be common knowledge among the public, the reaction of individuals to it has been slow and uncertain. Many studies assert that simply knowing about climate change is not enough to generate people's behavioural response. They claim, indeed, that in some cases scientific literacy can even obstruct behavioural response instead. However, recent surveys show a rather poor understanding of climate dynamics and argue that lack of knowledge about causal relationships within climate dynamics can hinder behavioural response, since the individual is not able to understand his/her role as causal agent and therefore doesn't know how to take proper action. This study starts from the hypothesis that scientific knowledge focused on clarifying climate dynamics can make people understand not only dynamics themselves, but also their interactive relationship with the environment. Teaching materials on climate change based on such considerations were designed and implemented in a course for secondary-school students with the aim of investigating whether this kind of knowledge had an influence on students' willingness to adopt pro-environmental behaviours. Questionnaires were delivered for testing the effect of the teaching experience on knowledge and behaviour.

  4. Study program for constant current capacitor charging method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pugh, C.

    1978-10-04

    The objective of the study program was to determine the best method of charging 20,000 to 132,000 microfarads of capacitance to 22 kVdc in 14 to 15 sec. Component costs, sizes, weights, line current graphs, copies of calculations and manufacturer's data are included.

  5. Current research projects on traffic conflicts technique studies.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hondel, M. van den & and Kraay, J.H.

    1979-01-01

    A review of current research concerning the development, evaluation and use of the traffic conflicts technique is presented. The 32 studies, selected from the IRRD data base, are listed alphabetically by names of countries and under countries by names of research organizations. The IRRD descriptions

  6. Subminiature eddy current transducers for studying boride coatings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dmitriev, S. F.; Ishkov, A. V.; Malikov, V. N.; Sagalakov, A. M.

    2016-07-01

    Strengthening of parts and units of machines, increased reliability and longer service life is an important task of modern mechanical engineering. The main objects of study in the work were selected steel 65G and 50HGA, wear-resistant boride coatings ternary system Fe-B-Fe n B which were investigated by scanning electron microscopy and eddy-current nondestructive methods.

  7. Dynamic Adaptive Approach to Transportation-Infrastructure Planning for Climate Change: San Francisco Bay Area Case Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wall, T.A.; Walker, W.E.; Marchau, V.A.W.J.; Bertolini, L.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptation of existing infrastructure is a response to climate change that can ensure a viable, safe, and robust transportation network. However, deep uncertainties associated with climate change pose significant challenges to adaptation planning. Specifically, current transportation planning

  8. Studies on climate change problems and response measures in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruqiu, Y. [China National Environmental Protection Agency, Beijing (China)

    1995-06-01

    Climate has substantial influence on the development of human society. At the same time, the global climate is being affected by human activities. Since industrial revolution large amount of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases have been emitted to the atmosphere, causing significant change in its composition. It is recognized that this change might be sufficient to cause change in global climate. Because of the importance of climate change issues, the Chinese government pays great attention to them. As climate change concerns almost all aspects of the social and economic development, in order to coordinate ministries and agencies of the government in their efforts to deal with climate change problems, the Coordinating Group on Climate Change under the Environmental Protection Committee of the State Council was established in February 1990. There are four working groups under the Coordinating Group, working on scientific assessment, impact assessment and response strategies, economic implication and international convention matters of climate change. A number of research and technological development projects related to climate change issues have been organized, including bilateral cooperation projects and projects supported by GEF, UNEP, UNDP, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and other international organizations. (EG) 11 refs.

  9. Studies on climate change problems and response measures in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruqiu, Y.

    1995-01-01

    Climate has substantial influence on the development of human society. At the same time, the global climate is being affected by human activities. Since industrial revolution large amount of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases have been emitted to the atmosphere, causing significant change in its composition. It is recognized that this change might be sufficient to cause change in global climate. Because of the importance of climate change issues, the Chinese government pays great attention to them. As climate change concerns almost all aspects of the social and economic development, in order to coordinate ministries and agencies of the government in their efforts to deal with climate change problems, the Coordinating Group on Climate Change under the Environmental Protection Committee of the State Council was established in February 1990. There are four working groups under the Coordinating Group, working on scientific assessment, impact assessment and response strategies, economic implication and international convention matters of climate change. A number of research and technological development projects related to climate change issues have been organized, including bilateral cooperation projects and projects supported by GEF, UNEP, UNDP, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and other international organizations. (EG) 11 refs

  10. Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    The present paper investigates possible impacts of the climate change on building risks caused by typhoons. The inputs to this investigation are: (1) outcomes from the numerical simulations with a Global Climate Model (GCM) developed under the framework of the KAKUSHIN program, (2) statistics...... and the future climate subject to the climate change, whereas the other inputs are utilized to develop a model for structural performance of buildings. Taking basis in these models, changes of building risks under the climate change are investigated. The result shows that the building risks slightly decrease...... on building damage in the event of Typhoon Songda, and (3) numerical simulation of the wind field induced by the typhoon Songda with the JMA Non- Hydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM). The first input is utilized to develop two sets of probabilistic typhoon models; i.e. corresponding to the current climate...

  11. Interpretation of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptations by Local Household Farmers: a Case Study at Bin County, Northeast China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yu, Q.; Wu, W.; Liu, Z.; Verburg, P.H.; Xia, T.; Yang, P.; Lu, Z.; You, L.; Tang, H.

    2014-01-01

    Although climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations have been studied extensively, how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities is poorly understood. Survey-based data (presents farmers' personal perceptions and adaptations to climate change)

  12. Development of virtual research environment for regional climatic and ecological studies and continuous education support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordov, Evgeny; Lykosov, Vasily; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir; Bogomolov, Vasily; Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara

    2014-05-01

    measurements data and support profound statistical analysis of storaged and modeled on demand data. In particular, one can run the integrated models, preprocess modeling results data, using dedicated modules for numerical processing perform analysys and visualize obtained results. New functionality recently has been added to the statistical analysis tools set aimed at detailed studies of climatic extremes occurring in Northern Asia. The VRE element is also supporting thematic educational courses for students and post-graduate students of the Tomsk State University. In particular, it allow students to perform on-line thematic laboratory work cycles on the basics of analysis of current and potential future regional climate change using Siberia territory as an example (Gordova et al, 2013). We plan to expand the integrated models set and add comprehensive surface and Arctic Ocean description. Developed VRE element "Climate" provides specialists involved into multidisciplinary research projects with reliable and practical instruments for integrated research of climate and ecosystems changes on global and regional scales. With its help even a user without programming skills can process and visualize multidimensional observational and model data through unified web-interface using a common graphical web-browser. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grant 13-05-12034, grant 14-05-00502, and integrated project SB RAS 131. References 1. Gordov E.P., Lykosov V.N., Krupchatnikov V.N., Okladnikov I.G., Titov A.G., Shulgina T.M. Computationaland information technologies for monitoring and modeling of climate changes and their consequences. Novosibirsk: Nauka, Siberian branch, 2013. - 195 p. (in Russian) 2. T.M. Shulgina, E.P. Gordov, I.G. Okladnikov, A.G., Titov, E.Yu. Genina, N.P. Gorbatenko, I.V. Kuzhevskaya,A.S. Akhmetshina. Software complex for a regional climate change analysis. // Vestnik NGU. Series: Information technologies. 2013. Vol. 11. Issue 1. P

  13. A population-based study of associations between current posttraumatic stress symptoms and current fatigue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerdal, Anners; Lee, Kathryn A; Rokne, Berit; Knudsen, Øistein; Wahl, Astrid K; Dahl, Alv A

    2010-10-01

    This study explores current experience with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and other variables (sociodemographic, mental distress, somatic morbidity, self-rated health, and quality of life [QoL]) in relation to fatigue. A representative sample of the Norwegian population (N = 3,944) was invited to participate in a mailed survey, and 1,857 (47%) returned valid responses on the questionnaire that included the Fatigue Severity Scale and the Posttraumatic Symptom Scale-10. Posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms showed a strong association with fatigue in univariate (β = .41) and multivariate analyses (β = .33). Associations between psychosocial health variables, QoL, and fatigue were confirmed. However, PTSD symptoms showed the strongest association with fatigue in the analyses. Findings need to be replicated in other population samples and in clinical samples with PTSD and fatigue.

  14. Case study applications of the BASINS climate assessment tool (CAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This EPA report will illustrate the application of different climate assessment capabilities within EPA’s BASINS modeling system for assessing a range of potential questions about the effects of climate change on streamflow and water quality in different watershed settings and us...

  15. Study on current limiting characteristics of SFCL with two trigger current levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, S.H.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, the superconducting fault current limiter (SFCL) with two trigger current levels was suggested and its effectiveness through the analysis on the current limiting characteristics was described. The proposed SFCL, which consists of the triggering and the limiting components, can limit the fault current by generating the limiting impedance through two steps according to the amplitude of the initial fault current. In case that the fault happens, the lower initial fault current causes the only superconducting element of the triggering component to be quenched. On the other hand, the higher initial fault current makes both the superconducting elements comprising the triggering and the limiting components of the SFCL to be quenched, which contributes to the higher impedance of the SFCL. Therefore, the effective fault current limiting operation of the SFCL can be performed by generating the SFCL's impedance in proportion to the amplitude of the initial fault current. To confirm the current limiting operation of the proposed SFCL, the short-circuit tests of the SFCL according to the fault angle were carried out and its effective fault current limiting operations could be discussed.

  16. Climate-Soil-Vegetation Interactions: A Case-Study from the Forest Fire Phenomenon in Southern Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhard, M.; Alexakis, E.; Rebetez, M.; Schlaepfer, R.

    2003-04-01

    In Southern Switzerland, we have observed increasing trends in extreme drought and precipitation events, probably linked to global climatic change. These modifications are more important than changes in annual precipitation sums. On the one hand, an increase in extreme drought implies a higher risk for forest fires, impeding the fulfilment of the various forest functions, on the other hand, extreme precipitation events, developing over a short time span, could simultaneously damage the forest ecosystems or destabilise the soil of burned areas, triggering debris flows. Climatic changes might additionally lead to modifications of the current species composition in the forests. Changes are currently observed at lower elevations (laurophiliation), but are still largely unknown at higher elevations. For the time being, forest fires cannot be regarded as natural phenomena in the South of Switzerland because they are mostly anthropogenically triggered. However, the changing climatic patterns, which set new conditions for the forests, may become a new ecological regulator for the forests as well as the forest fires. The social and environmental consequences are important for these issues. The implications for forest planning and management must be further studied and taken into account. Despite uncertainty about the response of forest ecosystems to climate change, planning and management can no longer rely on decadal to century climatic patterns. The increasing importance of changing environmental conditions within the framework of prevention will have to be reconsidered.

  17. DETERMINATION THE MOST IMPORTANT OF HSE CLIMATE ASSESSMENT INDICATORS CASE STUDY: HSE CLIMATE ASSESSMENT OF COMBINED CYCLE POWER PLANT STAFFS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Doubtlessly, noting the growth of industry and the criticality of the environment at the present time and the significance of protecting and preserving the resources to achieve the sustainable development, establishing the appropriate cultural mechanisms which can be able to confront the probable problems rationally besides understanding the biological and human resources for achieving the goals of sustainable development and establish matching with the conditions is so necessary. Today, the subject of HSE in the industry and creating its relevant cultural context in the developing countries is significant and it is necessary to assess its position at the organizational level in several sessions. Assessing the climate of HSE in an organization can depict a realistic picture of the staff understanding of the subject of HSE and their duties. The purpose of carrying out this study is to identify the main assessing factors of the climate of HSE in an organization and studying one of the industrial units in order to determine the position of them with a view to HSE. This descriptive-analytical study is being carried out based on the review of the literature and its results to identify the factors of HSE climate and then assessing the climate of HSE among the staff of a combined cycle power plant. The survey (questionnaire contains forty-three questions and is adjusted based on the 9- point Likert Scale Eight factors are being determined by means of an appropriate correlation for assessing the HSE climate. The validity of the questionnaire was achieved by means of Cronbach’s Alpha coefficient of 0.727 and the final result of the questionnaire evaluates an intermediate climate of HSE in the organization.

  18. World Regionalization of Climate Change(1961–2010)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peijun; Shi; Shao; Sun; Daoyi; Gong; Tao; Zhou

    2016-01-01

    Traditional climate classification or regionalization characterizes the mean state of climate condition, which cannot meet the demand of addressing climate change currently. We have developed a climate change classification method, as well as the fundamental principles, an indicator system, and mapping techniques of climate change regionalization. This study used annual mean temperature and total precipitation as climatic indices, and linear trend and variation change as change indices to characterize climate change quantitatively. The study has proposed a scheme for world climate change regionalization based on a half century of climate data(1961–2010). Level-I regionalization divides the world into 12 tendency zones based on the linear trend of climate, level-II regionalization resulted in 28 fluctuation regions based on the variation change of climate. Climate change regionalization provides a scientific basis for countries and regions to develop plans for adapting to climate change, especially for managing climate-related disaster or environmental risks.

  19. Study of noninductive current generation in a plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rax, J.M.

    1987-01-01

    Three aspects of noninductive current generation are treated: (1) The kinetic problem, i.e., coupling between current-carrying energetic electrons on the one hand, and the electromagnetic wave and thermal particles on the other. (2). The electromagnetic problem, i.e., calculation of the wave structure produced by the antennas. (3) The study of nonthermal radiation and electrical responses. Green's functions are used to solve the kinetic problem. The electron distribution function is calculated. For the electromagnetic problem of wave structure at different wave numbers, the Green's function of the Maxwell equations in an inhomogeneous, anisotropic medium which is spatially and temporally scattered was calculated. Perturbation of propagation by diffusion and conversion was studied. The calculation of nonthermal radiation and of transfer of electromagnetic wave energy into magnetic energy is derived from the two preceding problems. A method to produce fusion power quasi-continuously using two inductively and thermally coupled tokamaks is proposed [fr

  20. A 1200 Year Alkenone-based Reconstruction of Sea Surface Temperature and Marine Productivity in the Southern California Current System from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to Present

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Mara, N. A.; Kelly, C. S.; Herbert, T.

    2017-12-01

    Laminated sediment cores taken from the San Lazaro Basin (SLB) (25.18N, 112.66W) located off the coast of Baja California in the subtropical eastern Pacific were geochemically analyzed for alkenone and sterol biomarkers to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and marine productivity from 850-1980 CE. High sedimentation rates, low bottom water dissolved oxygen, and high marine productivity in combination with the San Lazaro Basin's location within the dynamic transition zone between the tropical and subtropical eastern Pacific, make it a prime location to study variability of tropical and subtropical modes of climate variability. This study focuses on the impacts and variability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the subtropical eastern Pacific. SST and coccolithophore productivity (n=730) for 2 mm sections of sediment corresponding to 1 measurement every 1.8 years were reconstructed using the Uk'37 unsaturation index and C37 alkenone concentration. The high resolution of this record allowed for the analysis of variability of SST and productivity on decadal timescales. Brassicasterol concentrations were calculated for a limited number of samples (n=44) to assess diatom productivity. High spectral power was found at periods of 20-30 years in SST and productivity records indicating a strong influence of the PDO on the SLB, making this the first marine based record directly relevant to PDO reconstructions that continuously spans the last millennium. Cool and productive (warm and less productive) waters were observed in the southern California Current in the Medieval Climate Anomaly 900-1200 CE (Little Ice Age 1400-1800 CE) supporting previous reconstructions that warmer (cooler) SST are linked to both reduced (enhanced) phytoplankton productivity. Additionally, cool (warm) SST were also associated with dry (wet) conditions in the American Southwest indicating that changes in the PDO has had a significant impact on drought

  1. Study and Evaluation of Current and Future Aircraft Loaders

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-08-01

    detonation intense Electromagnetic Pulse Eergy (DIP) is gene - rated which could seriously affect the electronic equipment. 2-105 The intense...speciality efforts, such as integrated logistics support (ILS), human factors engineering ( HFE ), and reliability, availability and m aintainability...task analyiis is outlined in detail in Appendix C: Human Fac- tors Enqineering Study and Evaluation of Current and Future Aircraft Loaders. The HFE

  2. Study on pulsed current cathodic protection in a simulated system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, Milin; Li, Helin [Xi' an Jiao Tong Universitiy (China)]|[Tubular Goods Research Center of China National Petroleum Corp. (China); Qiu, Yubing; Guo, Xingpeng [Hua Zhong University of Science and Techonology (China)

    2004-07-01

    The pulsed current cathodic protection (PCCP) is a new cathodic protection (CP) technology and shows more advantages over the conventional DC cathodic protection (DCCP) in oil well casing system. However, little information about PCCP is reported. In this research, a simulated CP system was set up in a pool of 3.5 m x 2.0 m x 3.0 m size, in which the effects of the square wave pulsed current (SWPC) parameters (amplitude: IA, frequency: f, duty cycle: P), auxiliary anode distance (d) and media conductivity ({mu}) on the cathodic potential (E) distribution were studied, and the protection effects of PCCP and DCCP were compared. The results show that with increase of the square wave parameters (IA, f, P), the E distribution becomes more negative and the effects of each current parameter are relate closely to the cathode polarizing state. Only with suitable square wave parameters can the whole cathode be effectively protected. With increase of d and {mu}, the E distribution becomes more uniform. Compared with DCCP system, PCCP system has much more uniform E distribution, costs less average current, and gains much better protection effects. Further, the mechanism of PCCP was analyzed. (authors)

  3. Climate change, income and happiness: An empirical study for Barcelona

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sekulova, F.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    The present article builds upon the results of an empirical study exploring key factors which determine life satisfaction in Barcelona. Based on a sample of 840 individuals we first look at the way changes in income, notably income reductions, associated with the current economic situation in Spain,

  4. Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Rocha, Adrian; Calvin, Katherine V.; Holmes, Bruce; Wang, Chuankuan; Goulden, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    How will regional growth and mortality change with even relatively small climate shifts, even independent of catastrophic disturbances? This question is particularly acute for the North American boreal forest, which is carbon-dense and subject The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean DBH increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly from 41.3 to 37.5 m2 ha-1. Tree mortality averaged 1.4±0.6% yr-1, with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from 2001, 2004, and 2012 sampling showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. There have been at least one, and probably two, significant recruitment episodes since stand initiation, and we infer that past climate extremes led to significant NOBS mortality still visible in the current forest structure. These results imply that a combination of successional and demographic processes, along with mortality driven by abiotic factors, continue to affect the stand, with significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS and the sustainable management of regional forests.

  5. Testing the hypothesis on cognitive evolution of modern humans' learning ability: current status of past-climatic approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoneda, Minoru; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Kawahata, Hodaka; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Oguchi, Takashi

    2014-05-01

    The impact of climate change on human evolution is important and debating topic for many years. Since 2010, we have involved in a general joint project entitled "Replacement of Neanderthal by Modern Humans: Testing Evolutional Models of Learning", which based on a theoretical prediction that the cognitive ability related to individual and social learning divide fates of ancient humans in very unstable Late Pleistocene climate. This model predicts that the human populations which experienced a series of environmental changes would have higher rate of individual learners, while detailed reconstructions of global climate change have reported fluent and drastic change based on ice cores and stalagmites. However, we want to understand the difference between anatomically modern human which survived and the other archaic extinct humans including European Neanderthals and Asian Denisovans. For this purpose the global synchronized change is not useful for understanding but the regional difference in the amplitude and impact of climate change is the information required. Hence, we invited a geophysicist busing Global Circulation Model to reconstruct the climatic distribution and temporal change in a continental scale. At the same time, some geochemists and geographers construct a database of local climate changes recorded in different proxies. At last, archaeologists and anthropologists tried to interpret the emergence and disappearance of human species in Europe and Asia on the reconstructed past climate maps using some tools, such as Eco-cultural niche model. Our project will show the regional difference in climate change and related archaeological events and its impact on the evolution of learning ability of modern humans.

  6. Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, Ken; Wood, Lowell

    2008-11-13

    We perform numerical simulations of the atmosphere, sea ice and upper ocean to examine possible effects of diminishing incoming solar radiation, insolation, on the climate system. We simulate both global and Arctic climate engineering in idealized scenarios in which insolation is diminished above the top of the atmosphere. We consider the Arctic scenarios because climate change is manifesting most strongly there. Our results indicate that, while such simple insolation modulation is unlikely to perfectly reverse the effects of greenhouse gas warming, over a broad range of measures considering both temperature and water, an engineered high CO2 climate can be made much more similar to the low CO2 climate than would be a high CO2 climate in the absence of such engineering. At high latitudes, there is less sunlight deflected per unit albedo change but climate system feedbacks operate more powerfully there. These two effects largely cancel each other, making the global mean temperature response per unit top-of-atmosphere albedo change relatively insensitive to latitude. Implementing insolation modulation appears to be feasible.

  7. Adapting forest to climate change in drylands: the Portuguese case-study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branquinho, Cristina; Príncipe, Adriana; Nunes, Alice; Kobel, Melanie; Soares, Cristina; Vizinho, André; Serrano, Helena Cristina; Pinho, Pedro

    2017-04-01

    The recent expansion of the semiarid climate to all the region of the south of Portugal and the growing impact of climate change demands local adaptation. The growth of the native forest represents a strategy at the ecosystem level to adapt to climate change since it increases resilience and increases also de delivery of ecosystem services such as the increment of organic matter in the soil, carbon and nitrogen, biodiversity, water infiltration, etc. Moreover, decreases susceptibility to desertification. For that reason, large areas have been reforested in the south of Portugal with the native species holm oak and cork oak but with a low rate of effectiveness. Our goal in this work is to show how the cost-benefit relation of the actions intended to expand the forest of the Portuguese semiarid can be lowered by taking into account the microclimatic conditions and high spatial resolution management. The potential of forest regeneration was modelled at the local and regional level in the semiarid area using information concerning the Potential Solar Radiation. This model gives us the rate of native forest regeneration after a disturbance with high spatial resolution. Based on this model the territory was classified in: i) easy regeneration areas; ii) areas with the need of assisted reforestation, using methods that increase water and soil conservation; iii) areas of difficult reforestation because of the costs. Additionally, a summary of the success of reforestations was made in the historical semiarid since the 60s based on the evaluation of a series of case studies, where we quantified the ecosystem services currently delivered by the reforested ecosystems. We will discuss and propose a strategy for forests to adapt to climate change scenario in dryland Portugal. Acknowledgement: Programa Adapt: financed by EEA Grants and Fundo Português de Carbono and by FCT-MEC project PTDC/AAG-GLO/0045/2014.

  8. The relationship between early holocene climate change and neolithic settlement in central Anatolia, Turkey: current issues and prospects for future research:

    OpenAIRE

    Asouti, Eleni

    2009-01-01

    Episodes of global climate change have traditionally been invoked as explanations for settlement re-organisation and socio-economic transformation in the prehistory of the Middle East (e.g., the Neolithic period). By focusing on the 8.2K event, this paper presents a theoretical and methodological argument against the assumption of unilinear, passive responses by prehistoric societies to global climate change, using as a case study datasets recently obtained from the Konya Plain in Central Ana...

  9. Microbial Contamination Detection in Water Resources: Interest of Current Optical Methods, Trends and Needs in the Context of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aude-Valérie Jung

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Microbial pollution in aquatic environments is one of the crucial issues with regard to the sanitary state of water bodies used for drinking water supply, recreational activities and harvesting seafood due to a potential contamination by pathogenic bacteria, protozoa or viruses. To address this risk, microbial contamination monitoring is usually assessed by turbidity measurements performed at drinking water plants. Some recent studies have shown significant correlations of microbial contamination with the risk of endemic gastroenteresis. However the relevance of turbidimetry may be limited since the presence of colloids in water creates interferences with the nephelometric response. Thus there is a need for a more relevant, simple and fast indicator for microbial contamination detection in water, especially in the perspective of climate change with the increase of heavy rainfall events. This review focuses on the one hand on sources, fate and behavior of microorganisms in water and factors influencing pathogens’ presence, transportation and mobilization, and on the second hand, on the existing optical methods used for monitoring microbiological risks. Finally, this paper proposes new ways of research.

  10. Climate Change In Indonesia (Case Study : Medan, Palembang, Semarang)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryadi, Yadi; Sugianto, Denny Nugroho; Hadiyanto

    2018-02-01

    Indonesia's maritime continent is one of the most vulnerable regions regarding to climate change impacts. One of the vulnerable areas affected are the urban areas, because they are home to almost half of Indonesia's population where they live and earn a living, so that environmental management efforts need to be done. To support such efforts, climate change analysis is required. The analysis was carried out in several big cities in Indonesia. The method used in the research was trend analysis of temperature, rainfall, shifts in rainfall patterns, and extreme climatic trend. The data of rainfall and temperature were obtained from Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The result shows that the air temperature and rainfall have a positive trend, except in Semarang City which having a negative rainfall trend. The result also shows heavy rainfall trends. These indicate that climate is changing in these three cities.

  11. Toward a Theoretical Framework for Studying Climate Change Policies: Insights from the Case Study of Singapore

    OpenAIRE

    Ai Sian Ng; May O. Lwin; Augustine Pang

    2017-01-01

    The world decided in December 2015 to take actions to reduce global warming. To contribute toward this goal, this research examines possible policy levers for inclusion in the climate change ratification plan. A case study of the measures taken by the Republic of Singapore, a low-lying 719.2 km2 island without natural resources in Asia, is conducted. Being vulnerable to climate change impact and yet having to balance her people’s needs and economic progress with limited resources, the measure...

  12. Study on the demand of climate finance for developing countries based on submitted INDC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Zhang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The 21st Conference of Party (COP21 held in Paris at the end of 2015 has opened a new era for the joint response dealing with climate change globally, and built up a new mode of global climate governance, that is, “all Parties submit INDC – global stocktake – enhance effort of actions – all Parties resubmit INDC – finally achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention.” With 160 INDC reports (covering 188 Parties that the UNFCCC Secretariat has currently received as research objects, this study classifies the mitigation targets of all Parties, and focuses on the systematic analysis of the financial demand, mitigation cost and priority investment areas for developing countries. The results are as follows: among 160 INDC reports, 122 reports clearly include the finance content; 64 reports propose specific amount of financial demand for the implementation of INDC; 31 reports pre-estimate domestic amount and financial demand for greenhouse gas mitigation in 2030, based on which they have calculated that the average mitigation cost for developing countries in 2030 would have reached up to US$22.3 per ton CO2; 28 Parties reclassify the financial demand for mitigation and adaptation areas, and reach the conclusion that the overall financial demand ratio for mitigation and adaptation is 1.4. Should the current mitigation commitments of the Parties from developed countries be used as benchmark, then in 2030 the total amount of financial demand for developing countries in response to climate change would have reached up to US$474 billion.

  13. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human

  14. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina Morrow

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective: The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design: The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1 the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2 the context within which the policy was developed; 3 the relevant processes; and 4 the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results: The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions: The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should

  15. Climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinzig, Ann P.

    2015-03-01

    This paper is intended as a brief introduction to climate adaptation in a conference devoted otherwise to the physics of sustainable energy. Whereas mitigation involves measures to reduce the probability of a potential event, such as climate change, adaptation refers to actions that lessen the impact of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation differ in other ways as well. Adaptation does not necessarily have to be implemented immediately to be effective; it only needs to be in place before the threat arrives. Also, adaptation does not necessarily require global, coordinated action; many effective adaptation actions can be local. Some urban communities, because of land-use change and the urban heat-island effect, currently face changes similar to some expected under climate change, such as changes in water availability, heat-related morbidity, or changes in disease patterns. Concern over those impacts might motivate the implementation of measures that would also help in climate adaptation, despite skepticism among some policy makers about anthropogenic global warming. Studies of ancient civilizations in the southwestern US lends some insight into factors that may or may not be important to successful adaptation.

  16. Experimental study of anti-tumor activity of direct current

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Hisao; Hashimoto, Shozo

    1989-01-01

    The anti-tumor activity of direct current combined with radiation was studied. The experiments were performed with fibrosarcomas (FSA, NFSA) syngenetic to C3H mice. Direct current (0.6mA, 120min) alone was effective to reduce the tumor sizes, but could not cure the tumors. When the direct current therapy (DC therapy) was combined with radiation the DC therapy following radiation was more effective than that before radiation. Using TCD 50 assay, the DC therapy enhanced the effect of a single dose of radiation with the dose-modifying factor of 1.2. However, tumor control rates by the combination therapy were more improved at the smaller doses of radiation than at the larger ones. When the single DC therapy (0.6mA, 120min) was applied immediately after the first radiation of fractionated one the combination therapy still showed the enhanced effect. However, both DC therapy and the radiation therapy were divided in three fractions, and the DC therapy (0.6mA, 40min) was applied after each radiation. Tumor growth retardation by the combination therapy was no different from that by radiation alone. This result suggests that there might be a minimum required dose of coulombs to show the effect of the combination therapy. (author)

  17. The relationship between team climate and interprofessional collaboration: Preliminary results of a mixed methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agreli, Heloise F; Peduzzi, Marina; Bailey, Christopher

    2017-03-01

    Relational and organisational factors are key elements of interprofessional collaboration (IPC) and team climate. Few studies have explored the relationship between IPC and team climate. This article presents a study that aimed to explore IPC in primary healthcare teams and understand how the assessment of team climate may provide insights into IPC. A mixed methods study design was adopted. In Stage 1 of the study, team climate was assessed using the Team Climate Inventory with 159 professionals in 18 interprofessional teams based in São Paulo, Brazil. In Stage 2, data were collected through in-depth interviews with a sample of team members who participated in the first stage of the study. Results from Stage 1 provided an overview of factors relevant to teamwork, which in turn informed our exploration of the relationship between team climate and IPC. Preliminary findings from Stage 2 indicated that teams with a more positive team climate (in particular, greater participative safety) also reported more effective communication and mutual support. In conclusion, team climate provided insights into IPC, especially regarding aspects of communication and interaction in teams. Further research will provide a better understanding of differences and areas of overlap between team climate and IPC. It will potentially contribute for an innovative theoretical approach to explore interprofessional work in primary care settings.

  18. Climate change impact on shallow groundwater conditions in Hungary: Conclusions from a regional modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra

    2016-04-01

    A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time

  19. Climate change will seriously impact bird species dwelling above the treeline: A prospective study for the Italian Alps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrarini, Alessandro; Alatalo, Juha M; Gustin, Marco

    2017-07-15

    High mountain systems are predicted to be especially vulnerable to the impact of climate change, with the climatically-constrained tree limit rapidly shifted upslope. In turn, the impact of upward treeline migration on mountain-dwelling bird species is expected to significantly reduce habitat suitability. We developed the first projection of the expected climate-driven rise of the whole treeline (19,256km) of the Italian Alps. The study area extends over 20,700km 2 , ranging over 550km in longitude and 320km in latitude. We then investigated how much the expected treeline rise will induce a) shrinking and shifting of the elevation range and b) loss in suitable habitat for the flagship species rock ptarmigan, an alpine bird species dwelling above the treeline and, similarly to many other alpine species, highly vulnerable to treeline rise. We also investigated the potential gain in suitable habitat for rock ptarmigan due to the climate-driven upshift in the uppermost thermal limit. At lower altitudes (1500-1600m a.s.l.), the average expected upshift in the current treeline resulted in 195, 274 and 354m over the short (2010-2039), medium (2040-2069) and long term (2070-2099) respectively. Above 2400m a.s.l., it was less than 30m even in the long term. Overall, during the three climate periods the extent of suitable habitat for rock ptarmigan above the current treeline is projected to decrease by 28.12%, 38.43% and 49.11% respectively. In contrast, the expected gain in suitable habitat due to the shift in the uppermost thermal limit will be severely restrained by the limited surface extension in the top portion of the Italian Alps. The presented approach can promote similar studies elsewhere in the globe, providing a regional perspective to the projection of climate change impact on bird species dwelling above the treeline. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Model-independent study of light cone current commutators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gautam, S.R.; Dicus, D.A.

    1974-01-01

    An attempt is made to extract information on the nature of light cone current commutators (L. C. C.) in a model independent manner. Using simple assumptions on the validity of the DGS representation for the structure functions of deep inelastic scattering and using the Bjorken--Johnston--Low theorem it is shown that in principle the L. C. C. may be constructed knowing the experimental electron--proton scattering data. On the other hand the scaling behavior of the structure functions is utilized to study the consistency of a vanishing value for various L. C. C. under mild assumptions on the behavior of the DGS spectral moments. (U.S.)

  1. Current CTR-related tritium handling studies at ORNL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, J.S.; Bell, J.T.; Clinton, S.D.; Fisher, P.W.; Redman, J.D.; Smith, F.J.; Talbot, J.B.; Tung, C.P.

    1976-01-01

    The Oak Ridge National Laboratory has a comprehensive program concerned with plasma fuel recycle, tritium recovery from blankets, and tritium containment in fusion reactors. Two studies of most current interest are investigations of cryosorption pumping of hydrogen isotopes and measurements of tritium permeation rates through steam generator materials. Cryosorption pumping speeds have been measured for hydrogen, deuterium, and helium at pressures from 10 -8 torr to 3 x 10 -3 torr. Permeation rates through Incoloy 800 have been shown to be drastically reduced when the low pressure side of permeation tubes are exposed to steam. These results will be important considerations in the design of fusion reactor steam generators

  2. Design studies on high current and grid control electron gun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jinnan; Lu Kun; Chi Yunlong; Zhou Zusheng

    2011-01-01

    Electron gun, the source of electrons, is a kind of ultrahigh vacuum device and plays an important role in different kind of accelerators. With the irradiation accelerator demands, describes the design studies on beam optics optimization. The simulation result shows that the beam current is above 5 A with cathode voltage of 80 kV and beam emittance, gun electric field and beam waist radius meet the accelerator needs. The electron gun manufactured and installed in the test stand, the conditioning and test will be done in the near future. (authors)

  3. Autophagy in Drosophila: From Historical Studies to Current Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulakkal, Nitha C.; Nagy, Peter; Takats, Szabolcs; Tusco, Radu; Juhász, Gábor; Nezis, Ioannis P.

    2014-01-01

    The discovery of evolutionarily conserved Atg genes required for autophagy in yeast truly revolutionized this research field and made it possible to carry out functional studies on model organisms. Insects including Drosophila are classical and still popular models to study autophagy, starting from the 1960s. This review aims to summarize past achievements and our current knowledge about the role and regulation of autophagy in Drosophila, with an outlook to yeast and mammals. The basic mechanisms of autophagy in fruit fly cells appear to be quite similar to other eukaryotes, and the role that this lysosomal self-degradation process plays in Drosophila models of various diseases already made it possible to recognize certain aspects of human pathologies. Future studies in this complete animal hold great promise for the better understanding of such processes and may also help finding new research avenues for the treatment of disorders with misregulated autophagy. PMID:24949430

  4. Autophagy in Drosophila: From Historical Studies to Current Knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nitha C. Mulakkal

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The discovery of evolutionarily conserved Atg genes required for autophagy in yeast truly revolutionized this research field and made it possible to carry out functional studies on model organisms. Insects including Drosophila are classical and still popular models to study autophagy, starting from the 1960s. This review aims to summarize past achievements and our current knowledge about the role and regulation of autophagy in Drosophila, with an outlook to yeast and mammals. The basic mechanisms of autophagy in fruit fly cells appear to be quite similar to other eukaryotes, and the role that this lysosomal self-degradation process plays in Drosophila models of various diseases already made it possible to recognize certain aspects of human pathologies. Future studies in this complete animal hold great promise for the better understanding of such processes and may also help finding new research avenues for the treatment of disorders with misregulated autophagy.

  5. Current management of bronchiectasis: review and 3 case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverman, Enid; Ebright, Linda; Kwiatkowski, Marianne; Cullina, Joanne

    2003-01-01

    Bronchiectasis is the abnormal, irreversible dilatation of diseased bronchi. Permanently dilated airways, usually in the medium-sized bronchi, are inflamed and often obstructed with thick, purulent secretions. Known causative factors include postinfection bronchial damage, postinhalation injury, hypersensitivity reactions, and congenital airway obstructive disorders. Typical symptoms include sputum overproduction, fever, pleurisy, dyspnea, and chronic cough. Diagnosis involves radiographic studies and pulmonary function testing. Treatment includes oral, aerosolized, or intravenous antibiotic therapy according to the severity of the exacerbation, and mucus clearance by means of bronchial hygiene assistive devices, chest physiotherapy, postural drainage, and high-frequency chest compression. We present a review of bronchiectasis and offer 3 case studies illustrating current management of different presentations, including use of aerosolized antibiotics for patients infected with Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Although an adjunctive program of pulmonary rehabilitation may be useful for patients with bronchiectasis, no confirming studies have been performed to date, and additional research in this area is warranted.

  6. Current Mathematical Methods Used in QSAR/QSPR Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peixun Liu

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper gives an overview of the mathematical methods currently used in quantitative structure-activity/property relationship (QASR/QSPR studies. Recently, the mathematical methods applied to the regression of QASR/QSPR models are developing very fast, and new methods, such as Gene Expression Programming (GEP, Project Pursuit Regression (PPR and Local Lazy Regression (LLR have appeared on the QASR/QSPR stage. At the same time, the earlier methods, including Multiple Linear Regression (MLR, Partial Least Squares (PLS, Neural Networks (NN, Support Vector Machine (SVM and so on, are being upgraded to improve their performance in QASR/QSPR studies. These new and upgraded methods and algorithms are described in detail, and their advantages and disadvantages are evaluated and discussed, to show their application potential in QASR/QSPR studies in the future.

  7. Associations among unit leadership and unit climates for implementation in acute care: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuman, Clayton J; Liu, Xuefeng; Aebersold, Michelle L; Tschannen, Dana; Banaszak-Holl, Jane; Titler, Marita G

    2018-04-25

    Nurse managers have a pivotal role in fostering unit climates supportive of implementing evidence-based practices (EBPs) in care delivery. EBP leadership behaviors and competencies of nurse managers and their impact on practice climates are widely overlooked in implementation science. The purpose of this study was to examine the contributions of nurse manager EBP leadership behaviors and nurse manager EBP competencies in explaining unit climates for EBP implementation in adult medical-surgical units. A multi-site, multi-unit cross-sectional research design was used to recruit the sample of 24 nurse managers and 553 randomly selected staff nurses from 24 adult medical-surgical units from 7 acute care hospitals in the Northeast and Midwestern USA. Staff nurse perceptions of nurse manager EBP leadership behaviors and unit climates for EBP implementation were measured using the Implementation Leadership Scale and Implementation Climate Scale, respectively. EBP competencies of nurse managers were measured using the Nurse Manager EBP Competency Scale. Participants were emailed a link to an electronic questionnaire and asked to respond within 1 month. The contributions of nurse manager EBP leadership behaviors and competencies in explaining unit climates for EBP implementation were estimated using mixed-effects models controlling for nurse education and years of experience on current unit and accounting for the variability across hospitals and units. Significance level was set at α < .05. Two hundred sixty-four staff nurses and 22 nurse managers were included in the final sample, representing 22 units in 7 hospitals. Nurse manager EBP leadership behaviors (p < .001) and EBP competency (p = .008) explained 52.4% of marginal variance in unit climate for EBP implementation. Leadership behaviors uniquely explained 45.2% variance. The variance accounted for by the random intercepts for hospitals and units (p < .001) and years of nursing experience in current unit

  8. Climate of the last millennium: a sensitivity study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertrand, Cedric [Royal Meterological Inst. of Belgium, Brussels (Belgium); Loutre, Marie-France; Crucifix, Michel; Berger, Andre [Univ. catholique de Louvain, Louvain la-neuve (Belgium). Inst. d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre

    2002-05-01

    Seventy-one sensitivity experiments have been performed using a two-dimensional sector-averaged global climate model to assess the potential impact of six different factors on the last millennium climate and in particular on the surface air temperature evolution. Both natural (i.e. solar and volcanism) and anthropogenically-induced (i.e. deforestation, additional greenhouse gases, and tropospheric aerosol burden) climate forcings have been considered. Comparisons of climate reconstructions with model results indicate that all the investigated forcings are needed to simulate the surface air temperature evolution. Due to uncertainties in historical climate forcings and temperature reconstructions, the relative importance of a particular forcing in the explanation of the recorded temperature variance is largely function of the forcing time series used. Nevertheless, our results indicate that whatever the historical solar and volcanic reconstructions may be, these externally driven natural climate forcings are unable to give climate responses comparable in magnitude and time to the late-2Oth-century temperature warming while for earlier periods combination of solar and volcanic forcings can explain the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period. Only the greenhouse gas forcing allows the model to simulate an accelerated warming rate during the last three decades. The best guess simulation (largest similarity with the reconstruction) for the period starting 1850 AD requires however to include anthropogenic sulphate forcing as well as the impact of deforestation to constrain the magnitude of the greenhouse gas twentieth century warming to better fit the observation. On the contrary, prior to 1850 AD mid-latitude land clearance tends to reinforce the Little Ice age in our simulations.

  9. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun; Haugen, Jan Erik; Meir, Michaela; Rekstad, John; Jarlset, Thore

    2011-01-01

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: → Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. → An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. → Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. → Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  10. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

    OpenAIRE

    Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    Background: Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.Objective: The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The ai...

  11. Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

    2016-01-01

    The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

  12. Study of tropical clouds feedback to a climate warming as simulated by climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brient, Florent

    2012-01-01

    The last IPCC report affirms the predominant role of low cloud-radiative feedbacks in the inter-model spread of climate sensitivity. Understanding the mechanisms that control the behavior of low-level clouds is thus crucial. However, the complexity of coupled ocean-atmosphere models and the large number of processes potentially involved make the analysis of this response difficult. To simplify the analysis and to identify the most critical controls of cloud feedbacks, we analyze the cloud response to climate change simulated by the IPSL-CM5A model in a hierarchy of configurations. A comparison between three model configurations (coupled, atmospheric and aqua-planet) using the same physical parametrizations shows that the cloud response to global warming is dominated by a decrease of low clouds in regimes of moderate subsidence. Using a Single Column Model, forced by weak subsidence large-scale forcing, allows us to reproduce the vertical cloud profile predicted in the 3D model, as well as its response to climate change (if a stochastic forcing is added on vertical velocity). We analyze the sensitivity of this low-cloud response to external forcing and also to uncertain parameters of physical parameterizations involved on the atmospheric model. Through a moist static energy (MSE) budget, we highlight several mechanisms: (1) Robust: Over weak subsidence regimes, the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship predicts that a warmer atmosphere leads to a increase of the vertical MSE gradient, resulting on a strengthening of the import of low-MSE from the free atmosphere into the cloudy boundary layer. The MSE budget links changes of vertical advection and cloud radiative effects. (2) Physics Model Dependent: The coupling between shallow convection, turbulence and cloud schemes allows the intensification of low-MSE transport so that cloud radiative cooling becomes 'less necessary' to balance the energy budget (Robust positive low cloud-radiative feedback for the model). The

  13. Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Makowski, D.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Bassu, S.; Durand, J.L.; Martre, P.; Adam, M.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Baron, C.; Basso, B.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Boogaard, H.; Boote, K.J.; Brisson, N.; Cammarano, D.; Challinor, A.J.; Conijn, J.G.; Corbeels, M.; Deryng, D.; Sanctis, De G.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grassini, P.; Hatfield, J.L.; Heng, L.; Hoek, S.B.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, C.; Jongschaap, R.E.E.; Jones, J.W.; Kemanian, R.A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kim, S.H.; Lizaso, J.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.J.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Pravia, M.V.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Sau, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Teixeira, E.; Thorburn, P.; Timlin, D.; Travasso, M.; Roetter, R.P.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2015-01-01

    Many simulation studies have been carried out to predict the effect of climate change on crop yield. Typically, in such study, one or several crop models are used to simulate series of crop yield values for different climate scenarios corresponding to different hypotheses of temperature, CO2

  14. Northward migration under a changing climate: a case study of blackgum (Nyssa Sylvatica)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johanna Desprez; Basil V. Iannone III; Peilin Yang; Christopher M. Oswalt; Songlin Fei

    2014-01-01

    Species are predicted to shift their distribution ranges in response to climate change. Region-wide, empirically-based studies, however, are still limited to support these predictions. We used a model tree species, blackgum (Nyssa sylvatica), to study climate-induced range shift. Data collected from two separate sampling periods (1980s and 2007) by the USDA’s Forestry...

  15. Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teutschbein, Claudia [Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm (Sweden); Wetterhall, Fredrik [King' s College London, Department of Geography, Strand, London (United Kingdom); Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Seibert, Jan [Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm (Sweden); Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden); University of Zurich, Department of Geography, Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-11-15

    Hydrological modeling for climate-change impact assessment implies using meteorological variables simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Due to mismatching scales, coarse-resolution GCM output cannot be used directly for hydrological impact studies but rather needs to be downscaled. In this study, we investigated the variability of seasonal streamflow and flood-peak projections caused by the use of three statistical approaches to downscale precipitation from two GCMs for a meso-scale catchment in southeastern Sweden: (1) an analog method (AM), (2) a multi-objective fuzzy-rule-based classification (MOFRBC) and (3) the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The obtained higher-resolution precipitation values were then used to simulate daily streamflow for a control period (1961-1990) and for two future emission scenarios (2071-2100) with the precipitation-streamflow model HBV. The choice of downscaled precipitation time series had a major impact on the streamflow simulations, which was directly related to the ability of the downscaling approaches to reproduce observed precipitation. Although SDSM was considered to be most suitable for downscaling precipitation in the studied river basin, we highlighted the importance of an ensemble approach. The climate and streamflow change signals indicated that the current flow regime with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to a flow regime that is rather dominated by large winter streamflows. Spring flood events are expected to decrease considerably and occur earlier, whereas autumn flood peaks are projected to increase slightly. The simulations demonstrated that projections of future streamflow regimes are highly variable and can even partly point towards different directions. (orig.)

  16. Toward a Theoretical Framework for Studying Climate Change Policies: Insights from the Case Study of Singapore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ai Sian Ng

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The world decided in December 2015 to take actions to reduce global warming. To contribute toward this goal, this research examines possible policy levers for inclusion in the climate change ratification plan. A case study of the measures taken by the Republic of Singapore, a low-lying 719.2 km2 island without natural resources in Asia, is conducted. Being vulnerable to climate change impact and yet having to balance her people’s needs and economic progress with limited resources, the measures taken by this small country could offer policy insights for small states and states without access to alternative energy sources. This research analyzes the online policy documents posted by eleven organizations to answer the main research question of identifying policy levers as theoretical constructs to form a framework that can be used to study climate change policies. A qualitative data analysis software, QSR NVivo 10, is used to classify the proposed nodes developed by the researchers using a system perspective integrating the insights from the key international climate change frameworks with the theoretical concepts from the model of pro-environmental behavior. The findings can offer insights toward developing a new contextual influence framework, which can help strengthen policy development and outcome measurement.

  17. Current Conceptual Challenges in the Study of Rhythm Processing Deficits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline eTranchant

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Interest in the study of rhythm processing deficits (RPD is currently growing in the cognitive neuroscience community, as this type of investigation constitutes a powerful tool for the understanding of normal rhythm processing. Because this field is in its infancy, it still lacks a common conceptual vocabulary to facilitate effective communication between different researchers and research groups. In this commentary, we provide a brief review of recent reports of RPD through the lens of one important empirical issue: the method by which beat perception is measured, and the consequences of method selection for the researcher’s ability to specify which mechanisms are impaired in RPD. This critical reading advocates for the importance of matching measurement tools to the putative neurocognitive mechanisms under study, and reveals the need for effective and specific assessments of the different aspects of rhythm perception and synchronization.

  18. Climate change is predicted to alter the current pest status of Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis in the United Kingdom

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jones, L.; Koehler, A.-K.; Trnka, Miroslav; Balek, Jan; Challinor, A. J.; Atkinson, H. J.; Urwin, P.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 11 (2017), s. 4497-4507 ISSN 1354-1013 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : climate change * Globodera pallida * Globodera rostochiensis * plant pathogens * potato cyst nematode * soil temperature simulations * soil-borne pests Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7) Impact factor: 8.502, year: 2016

  19. Multi crop model climate risk country-level management design: case study on the Tanzanian maize production system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavez, E.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate projections indicate that a very serious consequence of post-industrial anthropogenic global warming is the likelihood of the greater frequency and intensity of extreme hydrometeorological events such as heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods. The design of national and international policies targeted at building more resilient and environmentally sustainable food systems needs to rely on access to robust and reliable data which is largely absent. In this context, the improvement of the modelling of current and future agricultural production losses using the unifying language of risk is paramount. In this study, we use a methodology that allows the integration of the current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, agro-environment, crops, and the economy to determine short to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different environmental, climate, and adaptation scenarios. This methodology is applied to Tanzania to assess optimum risk reduction and maize production increase paths in different climate scenarios. The simulations carried out use inputs from three different crop models (DSSAT, APSIM, WRSI) run in different technological scenarios and thus allowing to estimate crop model-driven risk exposure estimation bias. The results obtained also allow distinguishing different region-specific optimum climate risk reduction policies subject to historical as well as RCP2.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The region-specific risk profiles obtained provide a simple framework to determine cost-effective risk management policies for Tanzania and allow to optimally combine investments in risk reduction and risk transfer.

  20. What and How Are We Evaluating? Meta-Evaluation Study of the NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) Portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, A. M.; Barnes, M. H.; Chambers, L. H.; Pippin, M. R.

    2013-12-01

    As part of NASA's Minority University Research and Education Program (MUREP), the NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) project at Langley Research Center has funded 71 climate education initiatives since 2008. The funded initiatives span across the nation and contribute to the development of a climate-literate public and the preparation of a climate-related STEM workforce through research experiences, professional development opportunities, development of data access and modeling tools, and educational opportunities in both K-12 and higher education. Each of the funded projects proposes and carries out its own evaluation plan, in collaboration with external or internal evaluation experts. Using this portfolio as an exemplar case, NICE has undertaken a systematic meta-evaluation of these plans, focused primarily on evaluation questions, approaches, and methods. This meta-evaluation study seeks to understand the range of evaluations represented in the NICE portfolio, including descriptive information (what evaluations, questions, designs, approaches, and methods are applied?) and questions of value (do these evaluations meet the needs of projects and their staff, and of NASA/NICE?). In the current climate, as federal funders of climate change and STEM education projects seek to better understand and incorporate evaluation into their decisions, evaluators and project leaders are also seeking to build robust understanding of program effectiveness. Meta-evaluations like this provide some baseline understanding of the current status quo and the kinds of evaluations carried out within such funding portfolios. These explorations are needed to understand the common ground between evaluative best practices, limited resources, and agencies' desires, capacity, and requirements. When NASA asks for evaluation of funded projects, what happens? Which questions are asked and answered, using which tools? To what extent do the evaluations meet the needs of projects and

  1. Pilot study on indoor climate investigation and computer simulation in historical museum building: Amerongen Castle, the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raha Sulaiman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The indoor climate is one of the most important factors contributing to climate-induced damage to the building materials and cultural collections of a monumental building. The Dutch monumental building - Amerongen Castle, and the collections housed in it show severe deterioration caused by inappropriate historical indoor environment. Assessments of the indoor climate, especially on the room temperature and relative humidity, are necessary to analyze the causes and impacts of climate change. As the building was flooded in year 1993 and 1996, extra attention is paid to investigate the effects of flooding to it. This pilot study was aimed to identify the buildup linkages between the known past, historical data on indoor environment and indoor climate performance in the building through simulation based-prediction. This paper focuses on the methodology of indoor climate investigation from the past to the current situation. A hypothesis was developed on backcasting-based prediction simulation which can be used to identify the accepted historical indoor climate where during those times there probably was no damage to the building and the collection. A simulation method based on heat, air and moisture transport is used with the HAMBase program. The computer model representing the Grand Salon of Amerongen Castle was calibrated by comparing real measurements to simulation results. It shows that the differences were only to the minimum of -1.8C and maximum of 3.2C. The data for the historical outdoor weather files was obtained by interpolating outdoor ancient climatology constructed by MATLAB. Based on archival research, indoor thermal history was gathered as input for the profiles used in simulation. Further, the calibrated computer model can be used to simulate past indoor climate and investigate the process of the deterioration of the room and the collections mainly due to the fluctuation of indoor temperature and relative humidity. At the end

  2. A Long-Term and Reproducible Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration Data Record for Climate Studies and Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, G.; Meier, W. N.; Scott, D. J.; Savoie, M. H.

    2013-01-01

    A long-term, consistent, and reproducible satellite-based passive microwave sea ice concentration climate data record (CDR) is available for climate studies, monitoring, and model validation with an initial operation capability (IOC). The daily and monthly sea ice concentration data are on the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) polar stereographic grid with nominal 25 km × 25 km grid cells in both the Southern and Northern Hemisphere polar regions from 9 July 1987 to 31 December 2007. The data files are available in the NetCDF data format at http://nsidc.org/data/g02202.html and archived by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the satellite climate data record program (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/operationalcdrs.html). The description and basic characteristics of the NOAA/NSIDC passive microwave sea ice concentration CDR are presented here. The CDR provides similar spatial and temporal variability as the heritage products to the user communities with the additional documentation, traceability, and reproducibility that meet current standards and guidelines for climate data records. The data set, along with detailed data processing steps and error source information, can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.7265/N5B56GN3.

  3. Impact of Future Climate Change on Regional Crop Water Requirement—A Case Study of Hetao Irrigation District, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianwa Zhou

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Water shortage is a limiting factor for agricultural production in China, and climate change will affect agricultural water use. Studying the effects of climate change on crop irrigation requirement (CIR would help to tackle climate change, from both food security and sustainable water resource use perspectives. This paper applied SDSM (Statistical DownScaling Model to simulate future meteorological parameters in the Hetao irrigation district (HID in the time periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, and used the Penman–Monteith equation to calculate reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0, which was further used to calculate crop evapotranspiration (ETc and crop water requirement (CWR. CWR and predicted future precipitation were used to calculate CIR. The results show that the climate in the HID will become warmer and wetter; ET0 would would increase by 4% to 7%; ETc and CWR have the same trend as ET0, but different crops have different increase rates. CIR would increase because of the coefficient of the increase of CWR and the decrease of effective precipitation. Based on the current growing area, the CIR would increase by 198 × 106 to 242 × 106 m3 by the year 2041–2070, and by 342 × 106 to 456 × 106 m3 by the years 2071–2099 respectively. Future climate change will bring greater challenges to regional agricultural water use.

  4. Recent Studies on Attributions of Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Zongci; DING Yihui; LUO Yong; Wang Shaowu

    2005-01-01

    Attributions of floods/cooler along the Yangtze River Valley and droughts/warmer in North China for the last 25 years have been reviewed in this paper. Both natural climate variability and human activities are considered. Some stronger evidences contributed to the natural climate variability, such as decadal and interdecadal variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon, the periodicities and transitions of rainfall and temperature changes in China, abrupt climate change, NAO, AO, AAO, ENSO, and snow cover. The signals produced by the human activities such as greenhouse gases and "brown clouds" likely play the role for the patterns. But the physical feedbacks and mechanisms still keep ambiguous and vague. More researches should be carried out in future to solve this issue.

  5. High-resolution climate and land surface interactions modeling over Belgium: current state and decennial scale projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquemin, Ingrid; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Beckers, Veronique; Berckmans, Julie; Debusscher, Bos; Dury, Marie; Minet, Julien; Hamdi, Rafiq; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Tychon, Bernard; Hambuckers, Alain; François, Louis

    2016-04-01

    The interactions between land surface and climate are complex. Climate changes can affect ecosystem structure and functions, by altering photosynthesis and productivity or inducing thermal and hydric stresses on plant species. These changes then impact socio-economic systems, through e.g., lower farming or forestry incomes. Ultimately, it can lead to permanent changes in land use structure, especially when associated with other non-climatic factors, such as urbanization pressure. These interactions and changes have feedbacks on the climate systems, in terms of changing: (1) surface properties (albedo, roughness, evapotranspiration, etc.) and (2) greenhouse gas emissions (mainly CO2, CH4, N2O). In the framework of the MASC project (« Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate »), we aim at improving regional climate model projections at the decennial scale over Belgium and Western Europe by combining high-resolution models of climate, land surface dynamics and socio-economic processes. The land surface dynamics (LSD) module is composed of a dynamic vegetation model (CARAIB) calculating the productivity and growth of natural and managed vegetation, and an agent-based model (CRAFTY), determining the shifts in land use and land cover. This up-scaled LSD module is made consistent with the surface scheme of the regional climate model (RCM: ALARO) to allow simulations of the RCM with a fully dynamic land surface for the recent past and the period 2000-2030. In this contribution, we analyze the results of the first simulations performed with the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model over Belgium at a resolution of 1km. This analysis is performed at the species level, using a set of 17 species for natural vegetation (trees and grasses) and 10 crops, especially designed to represent the Belgian vegetation. The CARAIB model is forced with surface atmospheric variables derived from the monthly global CRU climatology or ALARO outputs

  6. A longitudinal study of mental health symptoms in young prisoners: exploring the influence of personal factors and the correctional climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonçalves, Leonel C; Endrass, Jérôme; Rossegger, Astrid; Dirkzwager, Anja J E

    2016-04-06

    Despite the high prevalence rate of mental health problems among young prisoners, little is known about the longitudinal course and covariates of their mental health symptoms during incarceration, especially the influence of the correctional climate. The current study aimed: (1) to examine changes in young prisoners' mental health symptoms during incarceration, (2) to identify personal factors associated with their mental health symptoms and perceptions of the correctional climate, and (3) to test the incremental effect of perceptions of the correctional climate on mental health symptoms. Data were obtained from a sample of 75 youths (aged 17 to 22 years) detained in a Portuguese young offender prison. Data were gathered 1, 3, and 6 months after their admission in this facility. Socio-demographic, clinical and criminological variables were collected. Mental health symptoms and perceptions of the correctional climate were assessed through self-report assessment tools. Linear and logistic (multi-level) regressions and tests for differences between means were performed to analyze the data. Overall, mental health symptoms marginally declined by the sixth month in prison. Prisoners with a history of mental health treatment were more likely to have increased symptoms. Higher levels of mental health symptoms were associated with a history of mental health treatment, remand status, and a lower educational level. Better perceptions of the correctional climate were associated with Black race and participation in prison activities. A negative perception of the correctional climate was the strongest covariate of young prisoners' mental health symptoms and had incremental validity over that of personal variables. The results highlight that both characteristics of the prisoners and of the prison environment influence young prisoners' mental health. Prison management can try to reduce young prisoners' mental health problems by developing scientific procedures for their mental

  7. Studies on fast wave current drive in the JAERI tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, H.; Yamamoto, T.; Fujii, T.; Kawashima, H.; Tamai, H.; Saigusa, M.; Imai, T.; Hamamatsu, K.; Fukuyama, A.

    1991-01-01

    Fast wave electron heating experiment (FWEH) on JFT-2M and JT-60 and analysis of fast wave current drive (FWCD) ability on JT-60U are presented. In the JFT-2M, absorption of fast waves have been investigated by using a phased four-loop antenna array. The absorption of the fast waves has been studied for various plasma parameters by using combination of other additional heating methods such as electron cyclotron heating (ECH) and ion cyclotron heating. It is shown that the absorption efficiency estimated from various methods well correlates with one calculated theoretically in single pass damping. Interaction of the fast waves with fast electrons in combination with ECH has been examined through the measurement of non-thermal electron cyclotron emission (ECE). The observed ECE during FWEH is well explained by the theoretical model, which indicates generation of the appreciable energetic fast electrons by the fast waves. New four-loop array antennas have been employed to improve the absorption of unidirectionally-propagating waves. Characteristics of antenna loading resistance can be reproduced by a coupling calculation code. In JT-60, FWEH experiment in combination with lower hybrid current drive was performed. Power absorption efficiency of fast wave is substantially improved in combination with LHCD of relatively low power for both phasing modes. Bulk electron heating is observed with high-k // mode and coupling with fast electron is confirmed in hard X-ray emission with low-k // mode. The results are consistent with theoretical prediction based on 1.D full wave code. Synergetic effects between FWEH and LHCD are found. Coupling calculation indicates that eight-loop antenna is favourable for keeping high directivity in the required N // -range. Current drive efficiency is calculated with 1-D full wave code including trapped particle effects and higher harmonic ion cyclotron damping

  8. Comparing smallholder farmers’ perception of climate change with meteorological data: A case study from southwestern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayansina Ayanlade

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change, climate variability and their impacts, and adaptation strategies adopted over the past three decades. We use ethnographic analysis, combined with Cumulative Departure Index (CDI, Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI analysis, and correlation analysis to compare farmers’ perceptions in Southwestern Nigeria with historical meteorological data, in order to assess the way farmers’ observations mirror the climatic trends. The results show that about 67% of farmers who participated had observed recent changes in climate. Perceptions of rural farmers on climate change and variability are consistent with the climatic trend analysis. RAI and CDI results illustrate that not less than 11 out of 30 years in each study site experienced lower-than-normal rainfall. Climatic trends show fluctuations in both early growing season (EGS and late growing season (LGS rainfall and the 5-year moving average suggests a reduction in rainfall over the 30 years. Climatic trends confirmed farmers’ perceptions that EGS and LGS precipitations are oscillating, that rainfall onset is becoming later, and EGS rainfall is reducing. Overall impacts of climate change on both crops and livestock appear to be highly negative, much more on maize (62.8%, yam (52.2%, poultry (67% and cattle (63.2%. Years of farming experiences and level of income of farmers appear to have a significant relationship with farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies, with r≥0.60@ p<0.05 and r≥0.520@ p<0.05 respectively. The study concluded that farmers’ perceptions of climate change mirror meteorological analysis, though their perceptions were based on local climate parameters. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to climate change since the majority of them do not have enough resources to cope.

  9. How People Reason: A Grounded Theory Study of Scientific Reasoning about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shiyu

    Scientific reasoning is crucial in both scientific inquiry and everyday life. While the majority of researchers have studied "how people reason" by focusing on their cognitive processes, factors related to the underpinnings of scientific reasoning are still under-researched. The present study aimed to develop a grounded theory that captures not only the cognitive processes during reasoning but also their underpinnings. In particular, the grounded theory and phenomenographic methodologies were integrated to explore how undergraduate students reason about competing theories and evidence on global climate change. Twenty-six undergraduate students were recruited through theoretical sampling. Constant comparative analysis of responses from interviews and written assessments revealed that participants were mostly drawn to the surface features when reasoning about evidence. While prior knowledge might not directly contribute to participants' performance on evidence evaluation, it affected their level of engagement when reading and evaluating competing arguments on climate issues. More importantly, even though all participants acknowledged the relative correctness of multiple perspectives, they predominantly favored arguments that supported their own beliefs with weak scientific reasoning about the opposing arguments. Additionally, factors such as personal interests, religious beliefs, and reading capacity were also found to have bearings on the way participants evaluated evidence and arguments. In all, this work contributes to the current endeavors in exploring the nature of scientific reasoning. Taking a holistic perspective, it provides an in-depth discussion of factors that may affect or relate to scientific reasoning processes. Furthermore, in comparison with traditional methods used in the literature, the methodological approach employed in this work brought an innovative insight into the investigation of scientific reasoning. Last but not least, this research may

  10. Ecoclimatic indicators to study climate suitability of areas for the cultivation of specific crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caubel, J.; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, I.; Cufi, J.; Huard, F.; Launay, M.; Ripoche, D.; Graux, A.; deNoblet, N.

    2013-12-01

    Climatic conditions play a fundamental role in the suitability of geographical areas for cropping. In the context of climate change, we could expect changes in overall climatic conditions and so, on the suitability for cropping. Therefore, assessing the future climate suitability of areas for cropping is decisive for anticipating agriculture in a given area. Moreover, it is crucial to have access to the split up information concerning the effect of climate on the achievement of the main ecophysiological processes and cultural practices taking place during the crop cycle. In this way, stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions, such as changes in cultural practices or development of new varieties for example. We proposed an aggregation tool of ecoclimatic indicators to design evaluation trees of climate suitability of areas for cropping, GETARI (Generic Evaluation Tool of Ecoclimatic Indicators). It calculates an overall climate suitability index at the annual scale, from a designed evaluation tree. This aggregation tool allows to characterize climate suitability according to crop ecophysiology, grain/fruit quality or crop management. GETARI proposes the major ecophysiological processes and cultural practices taking place during phenological periods, together with the climatic effects that are known to affect their achievement. The climatic effects on the ecophysiological processes (or cultural practices) during phenological periods are captured by the ecoclimatic indicators, which are agroclimatic indicators calculated over phenological periods. They give information about crop response to climate through ecophysiological or agronomic thresholds. Those indices of suitability are normalized and aggregated according to aggregation rules in order to compute an overall climate index. In order to illustrate how GETARI can be used, we designed evaluation trees in order to study the climate suitability for maize cropping regarding

  11. Experimental study of blockage of monochromatic waves by counter currents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suastika, I.K.

    1999-01-01

    Blockage of waves by a current can occur if waves are propagating on a spatially varying opposing current in which the velocity is increasing in the wave propagation direction. The ongoing waves become shorter and steeper while they are propagating against the current. Blocking occurs at the

  12. Assessing atmospheric temperature data sets for climate studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnus Cederlöf

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Observed near-surface temperature trends during the period 1979–2014 show large differences between land and ocean, with positive values over land (0.25–0.27 °C/decade that are significantly larger than over the ocean (0.06–0.12 °C/decade. Temperature trends in the mid-troposphere of 0.08-0.11 °C/decade, on the other hand, are similar for both land and ocean and agree closely with the ocean surface temperature trend. The lapse rate is consequently systematically larger over land than over the ocean and also shows a positive trend in most land areas. This is puzzling as a response to external warming, such as from increasing greenhouse gases, is broadly the same throughout the troposphere. The reduced tropospheric warming trend over land suggests a weaker vertical temperature coupling indicating that some of the processes in the planetary boundary layer such as inversions have a limited influence on the temperature of the free atmosphere. Alternatively, the temperature of the free atmosphere is influenced by advection of colder tropospheric air from the oceans. It is therefore suggested to use either the more robust tropospheric temperature or ocean surface temperature in studies of climate sensitivity. We also conclude that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim can be used to obtain consistent temperature trends through the depth of the atmosphere, as they are consistent both with near-surface temperature trends and atmospheric temperature trends obtained from microwave sounding sensors.

  13. Current meter components and other data from fixed platforms from TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) and other locations in support of the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) and the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies (EPOCS) projects from 1989-04-16 to 1990-05-14 (NODC Accession 9200266)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current meter components data were collected from fixed platforms from the TOGA Area - Pacific (30 N to 30 S) and other locations from 16 April 1989 to 14 May 1990....

  14. How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claas Teichmann

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Global and regional climate model simulations are frequently used for regional climate change assessments and in climate impact modeling studies. To reflect the inherent and methodological uncertainties in climate modeling, the assessment of regional climate change requires ensemble simulations from different global and regional climate model combinations. To interpret the spread of simulated results, it is useful to understand how the climate change signal is modified in the GCM-RCM modelmodelgeneral circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM chain. This kind of information can also be useful for impact modelers; for the process of experiment design and when interpreting model results. In this study, we investigate how the simulated historical and future climate of the Max-Planck-Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM is modified by dynamic downscaling with the regional model REMO in different world regions. The historical climate simulations for 1950–2005 are driven by observed anthropogenic forcing. The climate projections are driven by projected anthropogenic forcing according to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The global simulations are downscaled with REMO over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX domains Africa, Europe, South America and West Asia from 2006–2100. This unique set of simulations allows for climate type specific analysis across multiple world regions and for multi-scenarios. We used a classification of climate types by Köppen-Trewartha to define evaluation regions with certain climate conditions. A systematic comparison of near-surface temperature and precipitation simulated by the regional and the global model is done. In general, the historical time period is well represented by the GCM and the RCM. Some different biases occur in the RCM compared to the GCM as in the Amazon Basin, northern Africa and the West Asian domain. Both models project similar warming

  15. CURRENT STUDY ON THE FUNDING SOURCES COVERAGE OF CURRENT ASSETS TO COMPANIES LISTED ON THE BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodor HADA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents issues about the coverage with financing sources of current assets for 64 companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. The aim of the study is to see how to calculate indicators specific to current assets and the general framework offered as whole analysis of the financing sources of current assets. The introduction of the paper presents the objective, the research methodology and the novelties brought by this study. Further on, this study shows the various views of the authors about the concept of "current assets", financing sources of current assets, the calculation of net working capital, setting the limits of the normal working capital and determining the speed of rotation. After that was done, based on the theory, a case study was performed, for companies covered in this study. Conclusions focused on determining the final data about what was detailed in the previous paragraphs.

  16. Current status of thermoluminescence studies on minerals and rocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sankaran, A.V.; Nambi, K.S.V.; Sunta, C.M.

    1982-01-01

    The usefulness of thermoluminescence (TL) in geological studies is being increasingly recognized, as may be judged from the considerable volume of literature accumulated over the past couple of decades; besides, a number of seminars, conferences and specialists' meetings have also been held on the subject of applied TL. However, these publications lie scattered over several periodicals and conference proceedings and an interested worker finds it difficult to obtain the gist of the contributions in one place. The present authors felt a need for this and have, therefore, attempted to bring together in this Report the current status of TL research about different minerals; applications in the fields of geochronology, ore-prospecting, stratigraphic correlation, geothermometry and other useful areas are also included. (author)

  17. Climate-Smart Farms? Case Studies in Burkina Faso and Colombia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andrieu, N.; Pédelahore, P.; Howland, F.; Descheemaeker, K.K.E.

    2016-01-01

    The climate-smart agriculture concept aims to encourage reflection on
    the transition to sustainable agricultural systems adapted to climate change. This chapter is based on participatory research studies carried out in Colombia and Burkina Faso to investigate, with farmers, the relevance of new

  18. The Organizational Climate and Organizational Structure of Elementary Schools. A Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranyard, Redge W.

    This report examines the relationship between the organizational climate (as measured by the Organizational Climate Description Questionnaire of Halpin and Croft--1966) and the organizational structure (in the context of the bureaucratic construct of Weber--1947) of elementary schools. The study postulated that the organizational structure of a…

  19. Tolerance to multiple climate stressors: a case study of Douglas-fir drought and cold hardiness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheel Bansal; Connie Harrington; Brad St. Clair

    2016-01-01

    1. Drought and freeze events are two of the most common forms of climate extremes which result in tree damage or death, and the frequency and intensity of both stressors may increase with climate change. Few studies have examined natural covariation in stress tolerance traits to cope with multiple stressors among wild plant populations. 2. We assessed the...

  20. An intercomparison of regional climate model data for hydrological impact studies in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Butts, Michael

    2010-01-01

    The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject to consider......The use of high-resolution regional climate models (RCM) to examine the hydrological impacts of climate change has grown significantly in recent years due to the improved representation of the local climate. However, the application is not straightforward because most RCMs are subject...... to considerable systematic errors. In this study, projected climate change data from the RCM HIRHAM4 are used to generate climate scenario time series of precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration for the period 2071-2100 for hydrological impact assessments in Denmark. RCM output for the present......-day period (1961-1990) are compared to an observational data set, with precipitation corrected for undercatch and wetting losses, to quantify systematic model errors. A delta change method is applied to cope with these biases. A question arises as to how variable the climate change signals are...

  1. Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

  2. Seasonal Variability of Wind Sea and Swell Waves Climate along the Canary Current: The Local Wind Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Semedo

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A climatology of wind sea and swell waves along the Canary eastern boundary current area, from west Iberia to Mauritania, is presented. The study is based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim. The wind regime along the Canary Current, along west Iberia and north-west Africa, varies significantly from winter to summer. High summer wind speeds generate high wind sea waves, particularly along the coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara. Lower winter wind speeds, along with stronger extratropical storms crossing the North Atlantic sub-basin up north lead to a predominance of swell waves in the area during from December to February. In summer, the coast parallel wind interacts with the coastal headlands, increasing the wind speed and the locally generated waves. The spatial patterns of the wind sea or swell regional wave fields are shown to be different from the open ocean, due to coastal geometry, fetch dimensions, and island sheltering.

  3. Factors influencing smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones: A case study of Hwedza District in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamasiya, Byron; Nyikahadzoi, Kefasi; Mukamuri, Billy Billiard

    2017-08-01

    This paper examines factors influencing behavioural change among smallholder farmers towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones of Africa, specifically, Hwedza District in Zimbabwe. Data for this study were collected from 400 randomly-selected smallholder farmers, using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The study used an ordered logit model to examine the factors that influence smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change. Results from the study show that the gender of the household head, access to extension services on crop and livestock production, access to climate information, membership to social groups and experiencing a drought have a positive influence on farmers' attitude towards adaptation to climate change and variability. The study concluded that although the majority of smallholder farmers perceive that the climate is changing, they continue to habour negative attitudes towards prescribed climate change adaptation techniques. This study recommends more education on climate change, as well as adaptation strategies for both agricultural extension workers and farmers. This can be complemented by disseminating timely climate information through extension officers and farmers' groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Study on Climate and Grassland Fire in HulunBuir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meifang Liu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Grassland fire is one of the most important disturbance factors of the natural ecosystem. Climate factors influence the occurrence and development of grassland fire. An analysis of the climate conditions of fire occurrence can form the basis for a study of the temporal and spatial variability of grassland fire. The purpose of this paper is to study the effects of monthly time scale climate factors on the occurrence of grassland fire in HulunBuir, located in the northeast of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in China. Based on the logistic regression method, we used the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS active fire data products named thermal anomalies/fire daily L3 Global 1km (MOD14A1 (Terra and MYD14A1 (Aqua and associated climate data for HulunBuir from 2000 to 2010, and established the model of grassland fire climate index. The results showed that monthly maximum temperature, monthly sunshine hours and monthly average wind speed were all positively correlated with the fire climate index; monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, monthly average relative humidity, monthly minimum relative humidity and the number of days with monthly precipitation greater than or equal to 5 mm were all negatively correlated with the fire climate index. We used the active fire data from 2011 to 2014 to validate the fire climate index during this time period, and the validation result was good (Pearson’s correlation coefficient was 0.578, which showed that the fire climate index model was suitable for analyzing the occurrence of grassland fire in HulunBuir. Analyses were conducted on the temporal and spatial distribution of the fire climate index from January to December in the years 2011–2014; it could be seen that from March to May and from September to October, the fire climate index was higher, and that the fire climate index of the other months is relatively low. The zones with higher fire climate index are mainly

  5. Isotope tracers in global water and climate studies of the past and present

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edwards, T.W.D.; Birks, S.J.; Gibson, J.J.

    2002-01-01

    To date the global distribution of isotopes in modern precipitation has been characterized almost exclusively from the IAEA/WMO GNIP database, although patchiness of GNIP station records in both time and space has limited the potential of isotope hydrology and climate applications in some areas. Herein, we discuss the prospect of utilizing GCMs for simulating global isotope distributions as a supplementary tool for modern and paleoclimate isotope studies to bridge this gap. Such models currently generate reliable zonal isotope fields, and it is anticipated that future enhancements in finescale resolution of GCMs, and incorporation of land-surface feedbacks and topography will allow for future development of a global reanalysis data set ground-truthed by GNIP. Compilation of time-slice maps of past isotope distribution in precipitation from archival records of meteoric waters also offers significant potential to ground-truth paleoclimate simulations extending back tens to hundreds of thousands of years. (author)

  6. Response of O2 and pH to ENSO in the California Current System in a high-resolution global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turi, Giuliana; Alexander, Michael; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Capotondi, Antonietta; Scott, James; Stock, Charles; Dunne, John; John, Jasmin; Jacox, Michael

    2018-02-01

    Coastal upwelling systems, such as the California Current System (CalCS), naturally experience a wide range of O2 concentrations and pH values due to the seasonality of upwelling. Nonetheless, changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been shown to measurably affect the biogeochemical and physical properties of coastal upwelling regions. In this study, we use a novel, high-resolution global climate model (GFDL-ESM2.6) to investigate the influence of warm and cold ENSO events on variations in the O2 concentration and the pH of the CalCS coastal waters. An assessment of the CalCS response to six El Niño and seven La Niña events in ESM2.6 reveals significant variations in the response between events. However, these variations overlay a consistent physical and biogeochemical (O2 and pH) response in the composite mean. Focusing on the mean response, our results demonstrate that O2 and pH are affected rather differently in the euphotic zone above ˜ 100 m. The strongest O2 response reaches up to several hundreds of kilometers offshore, whereas the pH signal occurs only within a ˜ 100 km wide band along the coast. By splitting the changes in O2 and pH into individual physical and biogeochemical components that are affected by ENSO variability, we found that O2 variability in the surface ocean is primarily driven by changes in surface temperature that affect the O2 solubility. In contrast, surface pH changes are predominantly driven by changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), which in turn is affected by upwelling, explaining the confined nature of the pH signal close to the coast. Below ˜ 100 m, we find conditions with anomalously low O2 and pH, and by extension also anomalously low aragonite saturation, during La Niña. This result is consistent with findings from previous studies and highlights the stress that the CalCS ecosystem could periodically undergo in addition to impacts due to climate change.

  7. Energy, water and climate nexus: A case study of Cameroon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ackom, Emmanuel

    2014-01-01

    potential to offset the reliance on crude oil. This study investigated the biomass resource availability from agricultural residues for liquid biofuel (as transportation fuel) and bioelectricity. Our findings indicate that sustainably extracted agricultural re sidues could yield 1.11 million bone dry tons...... per year. Using current bioconversion efficiency rates, the residues could potentially yield 0.12-0.32 billion liters of ethanol annually that is enough to offset 18-48% of the national consumption of gasoline. For bioelectricity generation, the same residues could provide 0.76-2.02 TW h, or 15...... of agricultural residues. The study provides policy recommendations to help encourage modern bioenergy applications from residues in Cameroon....

  8. Dealing with uncertainties in impact studies of climate change on hydrometeorological series over Segura River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Garcia Cardenas, R.; Tetay Botia, C.; Giraldo Osorio, J.; Erena Arrabal, M.; Baille, A.

    2011-12-01

    The Segura River Basin (SRB) located in the South East of Spain, is affected by recurrent drought and water scarcity episodes. This basin presents the lowest percentage of renewable water resources of all the Spanish basins. Intensive reforestation has been carried out in the region, to halt desertification and erosion, which added to climate change and variability, do not allow the default assumption of stationarity in the water resources systems. Therefore, the study of effects in hydrometeorological series should be addressed by nonstationary probabilistic models that allow describing the time evolution of their probability distribution functions (PDFs). In the present work, the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shaper) approach is applied to identify of spatio-temporal trends in observed precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), at basin scale. Several previous studies have addressed the potential impacts of climate change in water supply systems, focusing on the sensitivity analysis of runoff to climate. Considering the use of a conceptual hydrological model with few parameters, the impacts on runoff and its trend from historical data, are assessed. The conclusions of this study represent a breakthrough in the development of methodologies to understand and anticipate the impacts on water resources systems, in the light of current and future climate conditions, considering hydroclimatic non-stationarity. These findings are expected to contribute to the management of conditions of water resources scarcity and droughts, such as the observed in the SRB, as support to decision-making process by stakeholders.

  9. A report on workshops: General circulation model study of climate- chemistry interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei-Chyung, Wang; Isaksen, I.S.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report summarizes the discussion on General Circulation Model Study of Climate-Chemistry Interaction from two workshops, the first held 19--21 August 1992 at Oslo, Norway and the second 26--27 May 1993 at Albany, New York, USA. The workshops are the IAMAP activities under the Trace Constituent Working Group. The main objective of the two workshops was to recommend specific general circulation model (GCM) studies of the ozone distribution and the climatic effect of its changes. The workshops also discussed the climatic implications of increasing sulfate aerosols because of its importance to regional climate. The workshops were organized into four working groups: observation of atmospheric O 3 ; modeling of atmospheric chemical composition; modeling of sulfate aerosols; and aspects of climate modeling

  10. Rationing critical care medicine: recent studies and current trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Nicholas S

    2005-12-01

    This paper reviews the literature on the rationing of critical care resources. Although much has been written about the concept of rationing, there have been few scientific studies as to its prevalence. A recent meta-analysis reviewed all previously published studies on rationing access to intensive care units but little is known about practices within the intensive care unit. Much literature in the past few years has focused on the growing use of critical care resources and projections for the future. Several authors suggest there may be a crisis in financial or personnel resources if some rationing does not take place. Other papers have argued that the methods of rationing critical care previously proposed, such as limiting the care of dying patients or using cost-effectiveness analysis to determine care, may not be effective or viewed as ethical by some. Finally, several recent papers review how critical care is practiced and allocated in India and Asian countries that already practice open rationing in their health care systems. There is currently no published evidence that overt rationing is taking place in critical care medicine. There is growing evidence that in the future, the need for critical care may outstrip financial resources unless some form of rationing takes place. It is also clear from the literature that choosing how to ration critical care will be a difficult task.

  11. Solar cycle in current reanalyses: (non)linear attribution study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchar, A.; Sacha, P.; Miksovsky, J.; Pisoft, P.

    2014-12-01

    This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulation characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to the influence of the 11 year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques (Support Vector Regression, Neural Networks) besides the traditional linear approach. The analysis was applied to several current reanalysis datasets for the 1979-2013 period, including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how this type of data resolves especially the double-peaked solar response in temperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by these anomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the lower and upper stratosphere were found to be sufficiently robust and in qualitative agreement with previous observational studies. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone datasets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim) not being consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. Consequently the results obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinear approach through all datasets, suggesting that linear regression is a relevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middle atmosphere. Furthermore, the seasonal dependence of the solar response was also discussed, mainly as a source of dynamical causalities in the wave propagation characteristics in the zonal wind and the induced meridional circulation in the winter hemispheres. The hypothetical mechanism of a weaker Brewer Dobson circulation was reviewed together with discussion of polar vortex stability.

  12. Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene climate evolution controlled by sea-level change, Leeuwin Current, and Australian Monsoon in the Northwestern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishiwa, T.; Yokoyama, Y.; McHugh, C.; Reuning, L.; Gallagher, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    The transition from cold to warm conditions during the last deglaciation influenced climate variability in the Indian Ocean and Pacific as a result of submerge of continental shelf and variations in the Indonesian Throughflow and Australian Monsoon. The shallow continental shelf (Program Expedition 356 Indonesian Throughflow drilled in the northwestern Australian shallow continental shelf and recovered an interval from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene in Site U1461. Radiocarbon dating on macrofossils, foraminifera, and bulk organic matter provided a precise age-depth model, leading to high-resolved paleoclimate reconstruction. X-ray elemental analysis results are interpreted as an indicator of sedimentary environmental changes. The upper 20-m part of Site U1461 apparently records the climate transition from the LGM to Holocene in the northwestern Australia, which could be associated with sea-level change, Leeuwin Current activity, and the Australian Monsoon.

  13. Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H Charles J; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; Scarborough, Peter

    2016-05-07

    One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to

  14. Climate change and the emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe: case study of dengue fever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouzid, Maha; Colón-González, Felipe J; Lung, Tobias; Lake, Iain R; Hunter, Paul R

    2014-08-22

    Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease worldwide. Dengue transmission is critically dependent on climatic factors and there is much concern as to whether climate change would spread the disease to areas currently unaffected. The occurrence of autochthonous infections in Croatia and France in 2010 has raised concerns about a potential re-emergence of dengue in Europe. The objective of this study is to estimate dengue risk in Europe under climate change scenarios. We used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to estimate dengue fever risk as a function of climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity) and socioeconomic factors (population density, urbanisation, GDP per capita and population size), under contemporary conditions (1985-2007) in Mexico. We then used our model estimates to project dengue incidence under baseline conditions (1961-1990) and three climate change scenarios: short-term 2011-2040, medium-term 2041-2070 and long-term 2071-2100 across Europe. The model was used to calculate average number of yearly dengue cases at a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km grid covering all land surface of the currently 27 EU member states. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model dengue fever risk in Europe in terms of disease occurrence rather than mosquito presence. The results were presented using Geographical Information System (GIS) and allowed identification of areas at high risk. Dengue fever hot spots were clustered around the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas and the Po Valley in northern Italy. This risk assessment study is likely to be a valuable tool assisting effective and targeted adaptation responses to reduce the likely increased burden of dengue fever in a warmer world.

  15. The relationship between Early Holocene climate change and Neolithic settlement in central Anatolia, Turkey: current issues and prospects for future research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni Asouti

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Episodes of global climate change have traditionally been invoked as explanations for settlement re-organisation and socio-economic transformation in the prehistory of the Middle East (e.g., the Neolithic period. By focusing on the 8.2K event, this paper presents a theoretical and methodological argument against the assumption of unilinear, passive responses by prehistoric societies to global climate change, using as a case study datasets recently obtained from the Konya Plain in Central Anatolia, Turkey.

  16. The association between team climate at work and mental health in the Finnish Health 2000 Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinokki, M; Hinkka, K; Ahola, K; Koskinen, S; Klaukka, T; Kivimäki, M; Puukka, P; Lönnqvist, J; Virtanen, M

    2009-08-01

    Depression, anxiety and alcohol use disorders are common mental health problems in the working population. However, the team climate at work related to these disorders has not been studied using standardised interview methods and it is not known whether poor team climate predicts antidepressant use. This study investigated whether team climate at work was associated with DSM-IV depressive, anxiety and alcohol use disorders and subsequent antidepressant medication in a random sample of Finnish employees. The nationally representative sample comprised 3347 employees aged 30-64 years. Team climate was measured with a self-assessment scale. Diagnoses of depressive, anxiety and alcohol use disorders were based on the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Data on the purchase of antidepressant medication in a 3-year follow-up period were collected from a nationwide pharmaceutical register of the Social Insurance Institution. In the risk factor adjusted models, poor team climate at work was significantly associated with depressive disorders (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.36) but not with alcohol use disorders. The significance of the association between team climate and anxiety disorders disappeared when the model was adjusted for job control and job demands. Poor team climate also predicted antidepressant medication (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.30). A poor team climate at work is associated with depressive disorders and subsequent antidepressant use.

  17. A SIMULATION STUDY ON THE SHRUNK WETLAND AROUND QINGHAI LAKE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG HanJie; JING Li; GAO YunXiao

    2005-01-01

    Because of the increasing concerns about global climate change, it has been known by more and more peoples that there is a close relationship between wetland and/or peatland resources and climate change. This paper presents a new methodology to study the local climate variation caused by wetland shrinking around Qinghai Lake, the largest in-land salty lake in China, by use of a regional climate model (RCM) that commonly used in climate change study. The objective focuses on the regional climate effect of the shrunk wetland coverage in recent years. The results of numerical experiment showed that if the wetland coverage around Qinhai Lake were recovered as if in early 50s of last century,the regional climate in this area could be better with more cloud covers, higher relative humidity and more precipitation. In the other word, the area of wetland reduced is one of the most important reasons that caused regional climate aridification,eco-environmental deterioration and even desertification around Qinhai Lake.

  18. Current Highlights on ESA's Planetary Technology Reference Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falkner, P.

    The concept of Technology Reference Studies has been introduced already at EGU05, where the Venus Entry Probe (VEP), the Jupiter Minisat Explorer (JME), the Deimos Sample Return (DSR) and the Interstellar Heliopause Probe (IHP) have been presented in detail. At the EGU06 the new studies in reaction to the Cosmic Vision exercise have been introduced. The formulation of themes and mapping into potential future missions has been taken as basis in the planning of additional new and adaptation of existing TRS's to cover areas, which have not yet been addressed by any TRS. These new ongoing studies are progressing well and current highlights will be presented in the paper in further detail as well as an overview on supporting technology studies and Concurrent Design Facility (CDF) sessions. The Jupiter System Explorer (JSE) study investigates mission concepts with up to two Magnetospheric Orbiters placed in a highly elliptical Jovian orbit and the possibility to deploy a Jovian Entry Probe. The mission profile is based on a solar powered concept launched on a Soyuz-Fregat launcher. Mission analysis and the application of a new Jovian radiation model are supporting the study activities. The Near-Earth Asteroid Sample Return (NEA-SR) concept explores the possibilities of sample return or in-situ mission profiles with visits to up to two NEA targets. Due to the assumed low cost cap a trade between a sample return and remote/in-situ exploration concept has a high attention in the study. The Cross Scale TRS (CS-TRS) is intended to simultaneously investigate magnetospheric and plasma processes in three spatial scales with a formation flight of up to 12 spacecraft, orbiting on deep elliptical orbits around Earth. One of the major challenges is the launch of that number of spacecraft on a single launcher and the collisionless deployment of the formation at the target orbit. The scope if the GeoSail TRS is to demonstrate deployment, attitude control and navigation concepts for a

  19. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada-Contreras, Israel; Equihua, Miguel; Laborde, Javier; Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

  20. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species. PMID:27732622

  1. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israel Estrada-Contreras

    Full Text Available Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13. The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14. Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

  2. Satellite Observation Systems for Polar Climate Change Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.

    2012-01-01

    The key observational tools for detecting large scale changes of various parameters in the polar regions have been satellite sensors. The sensors include passive and active satellite systems in the visible, infrared and microwave frequencies. The monitoring started with Tiros and Nimbus research satellites series in the 1970s but during the period, not much data was stored digitally because of limitations and cost of the needed storage systems. Continuous global data came about starting with the launch of ocean color, passive microwave, and thermal infrared sensors on board Nimbus-7 and Synthetic Aperture Radar, Radar Altimeter and Scatterometer on board SeaSat satellite both launched in 1978. The Nimbus-7 lasted longer than expected and provided about 9 years of useful data while SeaSat quit working after 3 months but provided very useful data that became the baseline for follow-up systems with similar capabilities. Over the years, many new sensors were launched, some from Japan Aeronautics and Space Agency (JAXA), some from the European Space Agency (ESA) and more recently, from RuSSia, China, Korea, Canada and India. For polar studies, among the most useful sensors has been the passive microwave sensor which provides day/night and almost all weather observation of the surface. The sensor provide sea surface temperature, precipitation, wind, water vapor and sea ice concentration data that have been very useful in monitoring the climate of the region. More than 30 years of such data are now available, starting with the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on board the Nimbus-7, the Special Scanning Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on board a Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on board the EOS/ Aqua satellite. The techniques that have been developed to derive geophysical parameters from data provided by these and other sensors and associated instrumental and algorithm errors and validation techniques

  3. The case study of climate change : the nature of risk and the risk of nature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Good, J. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). Dept. of Communication

    2000-06-01

    The science of climate change is complex, large-scale and uncertain. The challenges of communicating the risks of climate change were described with particular emphasis on working with communities to explain climate change with its complex, scientific and social realities. The greenhouse effect is a feature of the earth in which a carbon dioxide blanket absorbs the sun's heat as it radiates off the earth. The paper stated that the greenhouse effect is arguably the best accepted theory in climatology, but the question is whether the huge increase in carbon dioxide that the industrial revolution has brought forth has increased the efficiency of this blanket and set the earth on a warming trend. The ultimate question is whether the earth is warming in response to human activity. It could be claimed that apart from the risk of nuclear war, the risk of climate change is the largest scale risk facing today's society. Climate change pits the burning of fossil fuels against the climate and as a modern day risk, climate change is far removed from the historic roots of environmental risks. The paper argued, that in a world based on burning fossil fuels and where those who are involved with the supply of fossil fuels hold tremendous influence, it is difficult to accept that the burning might have to stop. This paper explored how and what people currently learn about the environment and climate change through the media. A three-step communication strategy based in the United States was then proposed. The first step is aimed at journalists with focus on improved accuracy of climate change information. The second step focuses on urban centres and has as its guiding concepts self-efficacy, reasoned action and the importance of reaching people in diverse communities. The final step is aimed at political leaders, beginning with municipalities, and relies on campaigns for alternative energy.

  4. Empirical Analysis of Construction Safety Climate - A Study

    OpenAIRE

    S.V.S.RAJA PRASAD; K.P.REGHUNATH

    2010-01-01

    Safety in the construction industry has always been a major issue. Though much improvement in construction safety has been achieved, the industry still continues to lag behind most other industries with regard to safety. The safety climate of any organization consists of employee’s attitudes towards and perceptions of, health and safety behavior. Construction workers attitudes towards safety are influenced by their perceptions of risk, management, safety rulesand procedures. A measure of safe...

  5. Regional climate scenarios for use in Nordic water resources studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rummukainen, Markku; Räisänen, J.; Bjørge, D.

    2003-01-01

    in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models......-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding....

  6. Study of wind turbine foundations in cold climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-11-01

    This report provides an overview of the processes at work in soil in cold climates and their effect on wind turbine foundations. Havsnaes wind farm consists of 48 turbines located in Jaemtland county in central Sweden. Havsnaes has provided an appropriate research environment to investigate the engineering challenges related to the design and construction of wind turbine foundations in sub-arctic conditions and the experienced gained from this project informs this report.

  7. Descriptive currents in philosophy of religion for Hebrew Bible studies

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-09-30

    Sep 30, 2010 ... problematic currents in the English-speaking world and that we find ourselves in the context of developing postmodern, post-analytic and post-empiricist approaches. Even so, analytic philosophy of religion is still the most representative current in the discipline within the English-speaking world.

  8. Study of current instabilities in high resistivity gallium arsenide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barraud, A.

    1968-01-01

    We have shown the existence and made a study of the current oscillations produced in high-resistivity gallium arsenide by a strong electric field. The oscillations are associated with the slow travelling of a region of high electrical field across the whole sample. An experimental study of the properties of these instabilities has made it possible for us to distinguish this phenomenon from the Gunn effect, from acoustic-electric effects and from contact effects. In order to account for this type of instability, a differential trapping mechanism involving repulsive impurities is proposed; this mechanism can reduce the concentration of charge carriers in the conduction band at strong electrical fields and can lead to the production of a high-field domain. By developing this model qualitatively we have been able to account for all the properties of high-resistance gallium arsenide crystals subjected to a strong electrical field: increase of the Hall constant, existence of a voltage threshold for these oscillations, production of domains of high field, low rate of propagation of these domains, and finally the possibility of inverting the direction of the propagation of the domain without destroying the latter. A quantitative development of the model makes it possible to calculate the various characteristic parameters of these instabilities. Comparison with experiment shows that there is a good agreement, the small deviations coming especially from the lack of knowledge concerning transport properties in gallium arsenide subjected to high fields. From a study of this model, it appears that the instability phenomenon can occur over a wide range of repulsive centre concentrations, and also for a large range of resistivities. This is the reason why it appears systematically in gallium arsenide of medium and high resistivity. (authors) [fr

  9. FLOOD RISK FACTORS IN SUBURBAN AREA IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION POLICIES – CASE STUDY OF WROCLAW, POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymon Szewrański

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The uncontrolled sprawl of urban development exerts environmental impact in rural areas. The aim of this study is to identify areas vulnerable to climate change in the context of implementation of policies adapting to climate change at the local level. Such areas can be defined as those where the negative implication of flesh flood overlapping with soil sealing is observed. The study areas composed of municipalities which are influenced by the urban sprawl process of the city of Wroclaw, Poland. The analyses were performed using publicly available spatial data from aerial orthophotomaps from 2004–2012, the satellite images; archival and current land use maps. The database CORINE 1990, 2000, 2006; Urban Atlas and geodatabase of the European Environment Agency were also of an important usage for this study.

  10. Municipal climate change policies. A case study for Amsterdam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schol, E.; Van den Bosch, A.; Ligthart, F.A.T.M.; Roemer, J.C.; Ruijg, G.J.; Schaeffer, G.J.; Dinkelman, G.H.; Kok, I.C.; De Paauw, K.F.B.

    1999-01-01

    Insight in the local policy options with respect to climate change is provided, in this case within the sphere of influence of Amsterdam local authorities. A list of new policy options for CO 2 reduction has been made with the assistance of local policy makers and representatives of interest groups. These policy options have been divided into three qualitative scenarios: Institutional Cultural Change, Technological Innovation and Least-Regrets. The environmental, economic and other effects have been described for each policy option. The three most interesting policy options have been selected by local policymakers and representatives of interest groups during a workshop. Implementation strategies have been developed for the options selected. These strategies have been discussed during a second workshop. The reduction target, stabilisation of CO 2 emissions in 2015 compared to 1993, can be reached by a combination of all the new policy options. The three selected policy options count for 40% of this total CO 2 emission reduction. Finally, a general outline on the methodology can also be applied to other cities and municipalities. For example, this methodology can be used by participants of Cities for Climate Protection, an initiative of the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, or the Netherlands Climate Association. 136 refs

  11. Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of forests in the Indian Western Himalayan region: A case study of Himachal Pradesh, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujata Upgupta

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment at state and regional levels is necessary to develop adaptation strategies for forests in the biogeographically vital Himalayan region. The present study assesses forest ecosystem vulnerability to climate change across Himachal Pradesh and presents the priority districts for vulnerability reduction under ‘current climate’ and ‘future climate’ scenarios. Vulnerability of forests under ‘current climate’ scenario is assessed by adopting indicator-based approach, while the vulnerability under ‘future climate’ scenario is assessed using climate and vegetation impact models. Based on the vulnerability index estimated to present the vulnerability of forests under current and projected climate change impacts representing climate driven vulnerability, five districts – Chamba, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi and Shimla are identified as priority forest districts for adaptation planning. Identifying vulnerable forest districts and forests will help policy makers and forest managers to prioritize resource allocation and forest management interventions, to restore health and productivity of forests and to build long-term resilience to climate change.

  12. A study of inclusive charged current neutrino interactions in deuterium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Visser, C.P.

    1986-01-01

    In this thesis the results of an analysis of inclusive neutrino and antineutrino interaction on deuterium nuclei are presented. The use of deuterium as a target provides a mean to study proton and neutron scattering separately. The presently accepted theory of electro-weak interactions is reviewed. Applications of the quark-parton model in the context of deep-inelastic neutrino interactions on nucleons are summarized. The concept of scaling and its consequences are treated, together with some sources of violation of scaling. The properties of the CERN wide-band neutrino beam and an overview of the elements of this beam are given. The method to determine the energy distribution and the composition of the neutrino and antineutrino beam is described. The technique employed to separate neutrino interactions on protons and neutrons is discussed. Results of the measurement of the total nucleon charged-current cross-sections and differential cross-sections are presented. The relative contributions of quarks and antiquarks to the neutrino cross-sections are deduced from y-distributions and compared to those obtained from the total cross-section measurements. Finally, the analysis of the structure functions is given. (Auth.)

  13. US country studies program: Support for climate change studies, national plans, and technology assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes the objectives of the next phase of the U.S. Country Studies Program which was launched in support of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The next phases of this program aim to: assist countries in preparing Climate Change Action plans; support technology assessments and development of technology initiatives; enhance exchange of information and expertise in support of FCCC. The program offers support for these processes in the form of handbooks which have been published to aid in preparing action plans, and to provide information on methane, forestry, and energy technologies. In addition an array of training workshops have been and are scheduled to offer hands on instruction to participants, expert advice is available from trained personnel, and modeling tools are available to aid in development of action plans.

  14. One hundred years: A collective case study of climate change education in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloch, Leonard Mark

    This collective case study examined how five K-12 science teachers taught about climate change during Fall 2013, and asked how the University of Georgia can support climate change education. The participants were all experienced teachers, and included: three high school teachers, a middle school teacher, and an elementary school teacher. 'Postcarbonism', an emerging theoretical framework, shaped the research and guided the analysis. The teachers varied in their teaching practices and in their conceptions of 'climate change', but they were united in: 1) their focus on mitigation over adaptation, and 2) presenting climate change as a remote problem with simple solutions. The teachers drew on varied resources, but in all cases, their most valuable resources were their own skills, knowledge and personality. The University of Georgia can support climate change education by developing locally relevant educational resources. Curriculum developers might consider building upon the work of outstanding teach.

  15. Climate Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... What Is Permafrost? How Do We Predict Future Climate? Green Career: Earth Scientist 10 Things About Ecosystems ... study Earth? What can trees tell us about climate change? Why does NASA care about food? Games ...

  16. Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  17. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and influencing factors: a study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  18. Study of non inductive current generation in a plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rax, J.M.

    1987-01-01

    The problem of non-thermal bremsstrahlung during lower hybrid current drive is considered. The proposed method shows the role of the Compton effects at low frequencies and allows us to establish the link between the emitted power and the absorbed power at high frequency. The non-thermal emission is considered as a kinematical mode conversion between the absorbed radio-frequency mode and the emitted X ray photons. The fast electrons diagnostics and the ways to reach the wave structure are shown. Kinetic and electromagnetic problems concerning current generation are described. The plasma properties and diagnostics in the case of a non inductive current generation are discussed [fr

  19. Comparison of Climate Preferences for Domestic and International Beach Holidays: A Case Study of Canadian Travelers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Rutty

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Coastal tourism is the largest segment of global leisure tourism and it is firmly linked to the destination’s natural resources—with climatic resources chief among them. Through observations and survey responses of beach users, studies have evaluated climatic resources for coastal tourism by quantifying optimal and unacceptable conditions. However, these studies have not taken into consideration that different forms of holidays (e.g., daytrips, short trips, main annual holiday, “once-in-a-lifetime” trip may have varying degrees of resilience to climatic conditions. This is the first study to explore whether ideal and unacceptable climatic conditions vary between domestic and international tourists. Using an in situ survey, Canadian beach users traveling domestically (n = 359 and internationally (n = 120 were examined. Key findings include statistically significant differences (p ≤ 0.05 between the two sample groups for every climate variable, with the international sample more resilient to a broader range of weather conditions, including a greater acceptance for warm temperatures, longer rainfall durations, higher wind speeds, and greater cloud cover. This study adds further insight into the complexities of evaluating climate for tourism, with implications for the demand response of tourists to climate change.

  20. A novel bioenergy feedstock in Latin America? Cultivation potential of Acrocomia aculeata under current and future climate conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plath, Mirco; Moser, Christine; Bailis, Rob; Brandt, Patric; Hirsch, Heidi; Klein, Alexandra Maria; Walmsley, David; Wehrden, von Henrik

    2016-01-01

    Plant oil is a key commodity in the global economy, particularly for food and bioenergy markets. However, current production practices often impair smallholder livelihoods, cause land use changes, and compete for food production. The neotropical palm Acrocomia aculeata is currently being promoted

  1. Study on UPF Harmonic Current Detection Method Based on DSP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, H J [Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China); Pang, Y F [Xi' an University of Technology, Xi' an 710048 (China); Qiu, Z M [Xi' an University of Technology, Xi' an 710048 (China); Chen, M [Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China)

    2006-10-15

    Unity power factor (UPF) harmonic current detection method applied to active power filter (APF) is presented in this paper. The intention of this method is to make nonlinear loads and active power filter in parallel to be an equivalent resistance. So after compensation, source current is sinusoidal, and has the same shape of source voltage. Meanwhile, there is no harmonic in source current, and the power factor becomes one. The mathematic model of proposed method and the optimum project for equivalent low pass filter in measurement are presented. Finally, the proposed detection method applied to a shunt active power filter experimental prototype based on DSP TMS320F2812 is developed. Simulation and experiment results indicate the method is simple and easy to implement, and can obtain the real-time calculation of harmonic current exactly.

  2. Theoretical study of a flat eddy current probe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouchard, A.; Dumont-Fillon, J.; Labbe, G.

    1976-01-01

    A mathematical model for the computation of the impedance of an eddy current probe has been determined in the case of flat product testing. Various applications are discussed with particular emphasis on ferromagnetic materials [fr

  3. Future Climate Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cambell, C. G.

    2004-01-01

    This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative

  4. Future Climate Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C. G. Cambell

    2004-09-03

    This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past

  5. Study of lower hybrid current drive for the demonstration reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molavi-Choobini, Ali Asghar [Dept. of Physics, Faculty of Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Shahr-e-kord Branch, Shahr-e-kord (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Naghidokht, Ahmed [Dept. of Physics, Urmia University, Urmia (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Karami, Zahra [Dept. of Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Zanjan Branch, Zanjan (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    Steady-state operation of a fusion power plant requires external current drive to minimize the power requirements, and a high fraction of bootstrap current is required. One of the external sources for current drive is lower hybrid current drive, which has been widely applied in many tokamaks. Here, using lower hybrid simulation code, we calculate electron distribution function, electron currents and phase velocity changes for two options of demonstration reactor at the launched lower hybrid wave frequency 5 GHz. Two plasma scenarios pertaining to two different demonstration reactor options, known as pulsed (Option 1) and steady-state (Option 2) models, have been analyzed. We perceive that electron currents have major peaks near the edge of plasma for both options but with higher efficiency for Option 1, although we have access to wider, more peripheral regions for Option 2. Regarding the electron distribution function, major perturbations are at positive velocities for both options for flux surface 16 and at negative velocities for both options for flux surface 64.

  6. Communicating for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from a Case Study with Nature-Based Tour Operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timm, K.; Sparrow, E. B.; Pettit, E. C.; Trainor, S. F.; Taylor, K.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing temperatures are projected to have a positive effect on the length of Alaska's tourism season, but the natural attractions that tourism relies on, such as glaciers, wildlife, fish, or other natural resources, may change. In order to continue to derive benefits from these resources, nature-based tour operators may have to adapt to these changes, and communication is an essential, but poorly understood, component of the climate change adaptation process. The goal of this study was to determine how to provide useful climate change information to nature-based tour operators by answering the following questions: 1. What environmental changes do nature-based tour operators perceive? 2. How are nature-based tour operators responding to climate and environmental change? 3. What climate change information do nature-based tour operators need? To answer these questions, twenty-four nature-based tour operators representing 20 different small and medium sized businesses in Juneau, Alaska were interviewed. The results show that many of Juneau's nature-based tour operators are observing, responding to, and in some cases, actively planning for further changes in the environment. The types of responses tended to vary depending on the participants' certainty in climate change and the perceived risks to their organization. Using these two factors, this study proposes a framework to classify climate change responses for the purpose of generating meaningful information and communication processes that promote adaptation and build adaptive capacity. During the course of the study, several other valuable lessons were learned about communicating about adaptation. The results of this study demonstrate that science communication research has an important place in the practice of promoting and fostering climate change adaptation. While the focus of this study was tour operators, the lessons learned may be valuable to other organizations striving to engage unique groups in climate

  7. International energy technology collaboration and climate change mitigation. Case study 1. Concentrating Solar Power Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philibert, C. [Energy and Environment Division, International Energy Agency IEA, Paris (France)

    2004-07-01

    international collaboration by describing the globalisation of the economy and current efforts of technology collaboration and transfer. Finally, it considers various ways to strengthen international energy technology collaboration. This paper is one of six case-studies designed in an effort to provide practical insights on the role international technology collaboration could play to achieve the objectives of the UNFCCC. They will all consider the past achievements of international technology collaboration, and the role it could play in helping to develop and disseminate new technologies in the future: what worked, what did not work and why, and what lessons might be drawn from past experiences. Most case studies consider energy technologies that could help mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. A few others consider areas not directly related to greenhouse gas emissions but where international technology collaboration has proven particularly successful in the past. This case study reviews past and current experience in international collaboration in the field of concentrating solar technologies in order to identify lessons that may be relevant for more general climate-friendly technology collaboration. It presents concentrating solar technologies in their current status, recent achievements and development prospects. It analyses the present successes and failures of different forms of international collaboration in this field, and draws lessons for further elaboration of international technology collaboration in addressing climate change.

  8. Trend of environmental radiation protection and its current related studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Satoshi

    2011-01-01

    Reviewed are the international trend of environmental radiation protection (ERP), Japanese studies of radiation effects on environmental livings from aspects of ecosystem to molecular level, and the future view. ERP is particularly closed up toward promotion after its first involvement in the general global conference, UN Conference on Environment and Development (1992). International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP) has conducted such actions for the environment as establishing protection essentials for non-human species (2003), organizing Committee 5 (2005), and defining Reference Animals and Plants (2008) where Derived Consideration Reference Levels of 0.1-100 mGy/d are proposed, together with cooperative actions by United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)/Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and European projects. Japanese NIRS is now enrolled in the project of Environmental Modeling for Radiation Safety-II (IAEA). Major Japanese studies of radiation effects on environmental livings have utilized killifish (medaka: Oryzias latipes), springtail, earthworm, nematode, cultured plant cell (cedar), poplar, etc. Studies of the radiation effect on microcosm consisting of 3 livings have led to establishing a model for mathematical analysis and of 8 livings, have defined 50% affect dose of 5600 Gy gamma-ray. Irradiation of gamma-ray at 1 Gy/d for 5-10 days to the soil has been shown to result in alteration of the composition of natural earth bacterial population by denaturant gradient gel electrophoresis, which being a promising tool for evaluating the alteration of soil composition and function. At molecular levels, transcriptome analysis of various cells from yeast to man, is performed after irradiation of gamma-ray, neutron, heavy particles and others to reveal radiation-induced gene expression; and Hi-CEP (high

  9. Assessing the importance of spatio-temporal RCM resolution when estimating sub-daily extreme precipitation under current and future climate conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Luchner, J.; Onof, C.

    2017-01-01

    extreme precipitation over Denmark generated by the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM-ECEARTH at different spatial resolutions (8, 12, 25 and 50km), three RCM from the RiskChange project at 8km resolution and three RCMs from ENSEMBLES at 25km resolution at temporal aggregations from 1 to 48h...... are more skewed than the observational dataset, which leads to an overestimation by the higher spatial resolution simulations. Nevertheless, in general, under current conditions RCM simulations at high spatial resolution represent extreme events and high-order moments better. The changes projected...

  10. Pre-LBA Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The data set presents the principal data from the Anglo-BRazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) (Gash et al. 1996) and provides quality controlled...

  11. Pre-LBA Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The data set presents the principal data from the Anglo-BRazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) (Gash et al. 1996) and provides quality...

  12. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Datasets from a Major Crop Modeling Study

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Datasets from a Major Crop Modeling Study contain projected country and regional changes in grain crop yields due to global climate change. Equilibrium and transient...

  13. Where to find weather and climatic data for forest research studies and management planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald A. Haines

    1977-01-01

    Forest-range research or operational study designs should include the possible effects of weather and climate. This document describes the meteorological observational networks, the data available from them, and where the information is stored.

  14. BASINs and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the release of the final report, BASINs and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications. This report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the Better Assessment Science Integrating point & ...

  15. PERSIAN GARDENS IN COLD AND DRY CLIMATE: A CASE STUDY OF TABRIZ’S HISTORICAL GARDENS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahad Nejad Ebrahimi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Throughout history, gardens and garden designing has been in the attention of Persian architects who had special expertise in the construction of gardens. The appearance of Islam and allegories of paradise taken from that in Koran and Saints’ sayings gave spirituality to garden construction. Climate conditions have also had an important role in this respect but little research has been done about it and most of the investigations have referred to spiritual aspects and forms of garden. The cold and dry climate that has enveloped parts of West and North West of Iran has many gardens with different forms and functions, which have not been paid much attention to by studies done so far. The aim of this paper is to identify the features and specifications of cold and dry climate gardens with an emphasis on Tabriz’s Gardens.  Due to its natural and strategic situation, Tabriz has always been in the attention of governments throughout history; travellers and tourists have mentioned Tabriz as a city that has beautiful gardens. But, the earthquakes and wars have left no remains of those beautiful gardens. This investigation, by a comparative study of the climates in Iran and the effect of those climates on the formation of gardens and garden design, tries to identify the features and characteristics of gardens in cold and dry climate. The method of study is interpretive-historical on the basis of written documents and historic features and field study of existing gardens in this climate. The results show that, with respect to natural substrate, vegetation, the form of water supply, and the general form of the garden; gardens in dry and cold climate are different from gardens in other climates.

  16. Climate change research in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dawson, K.

    1994-01-01

    The current consensus on climatic change in Canada is briefly summarized, noting the results of modelling of the effects of a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 , the nonuniformity of climate change across the country, the uncertainties in local responses to change, and the general agreement that 2-4 degrees of warming will occur for each doubling of CO 2 . Canadian government response includes programs aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the scientific understanding of climate change and in the socio-economic response to such change. Canadian climate change programs include participation in large-scale experiments on such topics as heat transport in the ocean, and sources and sinks of greenhouse gases; development of next-generation climate models; studying the social and economic effects of climate change in the Great Lakes Basin and Mackenzie River Basin; investigation of paleoclimates; and analysis of climate data for long-term trends

  17. An uncertainty-based framework to quantifying climate change impacts on coastal flood vulnerability: case study of New York City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad

    2017-10-17

    The continued development efforts around the world, growing population, and the increased probability of occurrence of extreme hydrologic events have adversely affected natural and built environments. Flood damages and loss of lives from the devastating storms, such as Irene and Sandy on the East Coast of the USA, are examples of the vulnerability to flooding that even developed countries have to face. The odds of coastal flooding disasters have been increased due to accelerated sea level rise, climate change impacts, and communities' interest to live near the coastlines. Climate change, for instance, is becoming a major threat to sustainable development because of its adverse impacts on the hydrologic cycle. Effective management strategies are thus required for flood vulnerability reduction and disaster preparedness. This paper is an extension to the flood resilience studies in the New York City coastal watershed. Here, a framework is proposed to quantify coastal flood vulnerability while accounting for climate change impacts. To do so, a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach that combines watershed characteristics (factors) and their weights is proposed to quantify flood vulnerability. Among the watershed characteristics, potential variation in the hydrologic factors under climate change impacts is modeled utilizing the general circulation models' (GCMs) outputs. The considered factors include rainfall, extreme water level, and sea level rise that exacerbate flood vulnerability through increasing exposure and susceptibility to flooding. Uncertainty in the weights as well as values of factors is incorporated in the analysis using the Monte Carlo (MC) sampling method by selecting the best-fitted distributions to the parameters with random nature. A number of low impact development (LID) measures are then proposed to improve watershed adaptive capacity to deal with coastal flooding. Potential range of current and future vulnerability to flooding is

  18. Climate variability and temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants in the arctic: a study of glaucous gulls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustnes, Jan O; Gabrielsen, Geir W; Verreault, Jonathan

    2010-04-15

    The impact of climate variability on temporal trends (1997-2006) of persistent organic pollutants (POPs; polychlorinated biphenyls [PCB], hexachlorobenzene [HCB], and oxychlordane) was assessed in glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus) breeding in the Norwegian Arctic (n = 240). The Arctic Oscillation (AO: an index of sea-level pressure variability in the Northern Hemisphere above 20 degrees N) with different time lags was used as a climate proxy. The estimated concentrations of POPs in glaucous gull blood/plasma declined substantially (16-60%) over the time period. Multiple regression analyses showed that the rates of decline for POPs were correlated to climate variation when controlling for potential confounding variables (sex and body condition). More specifically AO in the current winter showed negative associations with POP concentrations, whereas the relationships with AO measurements from the year preceding POP measurements (AO preceding summer and AO preceding winter) were positive. Hence, gulls had relatively higher POP concentrations in breeding seasons following years with high air transport toward the Arctic. Furthermore, the impact of AO appeared to be stronger for HCB, a relatively volatile compound with high transport potential, compared to heavy chlorinated PCB congeners. This study thus suggests that predicted climate change should be considered in assessments of future temporal trends of POPs in Arctic wildlife.

  19. Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Phytogeographical Units. A Case Study of the Moesz Line

    OpenAIRE

    Bede-Fazekas, Ákos

    2013-01-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) provide reliable climatic predictions for the next 90 years with high horizontal and temporal resolution. In the 21st century northward latitudinal and upward altitudinal shift of the distribution of plant species and phytogeographical units is expected. It is discussed how the modeling of phytogeographical unit can be reduced to modeling plant distributions. Predicted shift of the Moesz line is studied as case study (with three different modeling approaches) us...

  20. Physical Impacts of Climate Change on the Western US Electricity System: A Scoping Study

    OpenAIRE

    Coughlin, Katie

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an exploratory study of the possible physical impacts of climate change on the electric power system, and how these impacts could be incorporated into resource planning in the Western United States. While many aspects of climate change and energy have been discussed in the literature, there has not yet been a systematic review of the relationship between specific physical effects and the quantitative analyses that are commonly used in planning studies. The core of the prob...

  1. Climate Change and Apple Farming in Indian Himalayas: A Study of Local Perceptions and Responses

    OpenAIRE

    Basannagari, Basavaraj; Kala, Chandra Prakash

    2013-01-01

    Apple farming is an important activity and profession of farmer communities in the Himalayan states of India. At present, the traditional apple farming is under stress due to changes in climate. The present study was undertaken in an Indian Himalayan state, Himachal Pradesh, with the major aim of studying perceptions of farmers on the effects of climate change on apple farming along the altitudinal gradient. Through questionnaire survey, the perceptions of farmers were recorded at low hills (...

  2. Images of climate change - a pilot study of young people's perceptions of ICT-based climate visualization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ballantyne, Anne Gammelgaard; Wibeck, Victoria; Neset, Tina-Simone

    2016-01-01

    to add interactive elements should be further explored, as interaction has the potential to influence meaning-making processes. In addition, audiences’ preconceptions of climate change influence their interpretations of climate messages, which may function as a constraint to climate communication....

  3. Climate change, poverty and agricultural resource degradation: a case study of district d.g. khan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imran, M.; Bano, S.; Dawood, M.; Tarar, M.A.; Ali, A.

    2012-01-01

    Global development agendas are now being bonded with adaptation to climate change. Sustainable biodiversity and community adaptation to climate change are closely associated as depletion of natural resources adversely affects the living standard of people. Rapid climatic changes and intervention to regulate water resources in Indus delta of Pakistan have put the lives of millions of people residing near the Indus river belt at the stake of climate change. Therefore, this study was designed to inquire the socio-economic conditions of the people residing near the Indus river bank and the perceived impact of climate change on river belt agricultural resources specifically in district D. G. Khan. Based on primary data study employed univariate and bivariate analysis which suggested flood, wind storm and temperature as the significant climate change parameters affecting the land fertility, forest and fisheries. The Foster Greer and Thorbeck technique for calculating the poverty indicated that majority (82%) of population was below poverty line and most of them entirely depend on river belt agricultural resources which were found to be depleting due to rapid climate change. (author)

  4. Tradeoffs between Maize Silage Yield and Nitrate Leaching in a Mediterranean Nitrate-Vulnerable Zone under Current and Projected Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basso, Bruno; Giola, Pietro; Dumont, Benjamin; Migliorati, Massimiliano De Antoni; Cammarano, Davide; Pruneddu, Giovanni; Giunta, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    Future climatic changes may have profound impacts on cropping systems and affect the agronomic and environmental sustainability of current N management practices. The objectives of this work were to i) evaluate the ability of the SALUS crop model to reproduce experimental crop yield and soil nitrate dynamics results under different N fertilizer treatments in a farmer’s field, ii) use the SALUS model to estimate the impacts of different N fertilizer treatments on NO3- leaching under future climate scenarios generated by twenty nine different global circulation models, and iii) identify the management system that best minimizes NO3- leaching and maximizes yield under projected future climate conditions. A field experiment (maize-triticale rotation) was conducted in a nitrate vulnerable zone on the west coast of Sardinia, Italy to evaluate N management strategies that include urea fertilization (NMIN), conventional fertilization with dairy slurry and urea (CONV), and no fertilization (N0). An ensemble of 29 global circulation models (GCM) was used to simulate different climate scenarios for two Representative Circulation Pathways (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) and evaluate potential nitrate leaching and biomass production in this region over the next 50 years. Data collected from two growing seasons showed that the SALUS model adequately simulated both nitrate leaching and crop yield, with a relative error that ranged between 0.4% and 13%. Nitrate losses under RCP8.5 were lower than under RCP6.0 only for NMIN. Accordingly, levels of plant N uptake, N use efficiency and biomass production were higher under RCP8.5 than RCP6.0. Simulations under both RCP scenarios indicated that the NMIN treatment demonstrated both the highest biomass production and NO3- losses. The newly proposed best management practice (BMP), developed from crop N uptake data, was identified as the optimal N fertilizer management practice since it minimized NO3- leaching and maximized biomass production over

  5. Crane RF accelerator for high current radiation damage studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whitham, K.; Anamkath, H.; Evans, K.; Lyons, S.; Palmer, D.; Miller, R.; Treas, P.; Zante, T.

    1992-01-01

    An electron accelerator was designed and built for the Naval Weapons Support Center for transient radiation effects on electronics experiments and testing. The Crane L Band RF Electron Linac was designed to provide high currents over a wide range of pulse widths and energies. The energy extends to 60 MeV and pulse widths vary from a few ns to 10 μsec. Beam currents range from 20 amps in the short pulse case to 1.5 amps in the long pulse case. This paper describes the linac, its architecture, the e-gun and pulser, waveguides, klystrons and modulator, vacuum system, beam transport, and control systems. fig., tab

  6. Patient safety climate profiles across time: Strength and level of safety climate associated with a quality improvement program in Switzerland—A cross-sectional survey study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascherek, Anna C.

    2017-01-01

    Safety Climate has been acknowledged as an unspecific factor influencing patient safety. However, studies rarely provide in-depth analysis of climate data. As a helpful approach, the concept of “climate strength” has been proposed. In the present study we tested the hypotheses that even if safety climate remains stable on mean-level across time, differences might be evident in strength or shape. The data of two hospitals participating in a large national quality improvement program were analysed for differences in climate profiles at two measurement occasions. We analysed differences on mean-level, differences in percent problematic response, agreement within groups, and frequency histograms in two large hospitals in Switzerland at two measurement occasions (2013 and 2015) applying the Safety Climate Survey. In total, survey responses of 1193 individuals were included in the analyses. Overall, small but significant differences on mean-level of safety climate emerged for some subgroups. Also, although agreement was strong at both time-points within groups, tendencies of divergence or consensus were present in both hospitals. Depending on subgroup and analyses chosen, differences were more or less pronounced. The present study illustrated that taking several measures into account and describing safety climate from different perspectives is necessary in order to fully understand differences and trends within groups and to develop interventions addressing the needs of different groups more precisely. PMID:28753633

  7. Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

    2017-08-01

    While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

  8. PONDS AND CLIMATE, THE GEOGRAPHICAL ASCENDANCY RELATIONSHIP (“LA BRENNE” CASE STUDY, FRANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent TOUCHART

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Ponds and climate, the geographical ascendancy relationship (“La Brenne” case study, France. The climate influences markedly the volume of water ponds and lakes. However, the role and the influence of "small" water areas, and areas of ponds on the local climate remain poorly understood. Scientific studies for the Great Lakes have been made. Moreover, scientific studies on «small» water areas and areas of ponds do not exist until today. A first approach to study the area of ponds of “La Brenne” (Central Region, France was performed. The monthly climate data from some meteorological stations, with the reference station of “Issoudun”, located away from areas of ponds, were the basis of our analysis. The study focuses on the most representative climatic parameters. These are the temperature, precipitation and relative humidity. This first approach is used to distinguish and clarify the most important cases and relevant parameters in order to achieve a typology of criteria. Our results will be used for further study and quantify the real influence of "small" water areas and areas of ponds on the elements of the local climate.

  9. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth

  10. Enhancing STEM coursework at MSIs through the AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abshire, W. E.; Mills, E. W.; Slough, S. W.; Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Nugnes, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    The AMS Education Program celebrates a successful completion to its AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project. The project was funded for 6 years (2011-2017) through the National Science Foundation (NSF). It introduced and enhanced geoscience and/or sustainability-focused course components at minority-serving institutions (MSIs) across the U.S., many of which are signatories to the President's Climate Leadership Commitments, administered by Second Nature, and/or members of the Louis Stokes Alliances for Minority Participation. The Project introduced AMS Climate Studies curriculum to approximately 130 faculty representing 113 MSIs. Each year a cohort of, on average, 25 faculty attended a course implementation workshop where they were immersed in the course materials, received presentations from high-level speakers, and trained as change agents for their local institutions. This workshop was held in the Washington, DC area in collaboration with Second Nature, NOAA, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Howard University, and other local climate educational and research institutions. Following, faculty introduced and enhanced geoscience curricula on their local campuses with AMS Climate Studies course materials, thereby bringing change from within. Faculty were then invited to the following AMS Annual Meeting to report on their AMS Climate Studies course implementation progress, reconnect with their colleagues, and learn new science presented at the meeting. A longitudinal survey was administered to all Climate Diversity Project faculty participants who attended the course implementation workshops. The survey goals were to assess the effectiveness of the Project in helping faculty implement/enhance their institutional climate science offering, share best practices in offering AMS Climate Studies, and analyze the usefulness of course materials. Results will be presented during this presentation. The AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project builds on highly successful, NSF

  11. West Virginia Women Business Owners: Current Study and Trends Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holup, Linda L.; FitzGerald, Kathleen M.

    This report profiles current West Virginia women business owners and notes significant trends in the last eight years. It highlights a subgroup of women business owners, specifically low income, single women with children. These survey areas are discussed: industry sector, type of ownership, reasons for going/not going into business, planning…

  12. A multicenter study: how do medical students perceive clinical learning climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, Nilufer Demiral; Velipasaoglu, Serpil; Ozan, Sema; Basusta, Bilge Uzun; Midik, Ozlem; Mamakli, Sumer; Karaoglu, Nazan; Tengiz, Funda; Durak, Halil İbrahim; Sahin, Hatice

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between students and instructors is of crucial importance for the development of a positive learning climate. Learning climate is a multifaceted concept, and its measurement is a complicated process. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine medical students' perceptions about the clinical learning climate and to investigate differences in their perceptions in terms of various variables. Medical students studying at six medical schools in Turkey were recruited for the study. All students who completed clinical rotations, which lasted for 3 or more weeks, were included in the study (n=3,097). Data were collected using the Clinical Learning Climate Scale (CLCS). The CLCS (36 items) includes three subscales: clinical environment, emotion, and motivation. Each item is scored using a 5-point Likert scale (1: strongly disagree to 5: strongly agree). The response rate for the trainees was 69.67% (n=1,519), and for the interns it was 51.47% (n=917). The mean total CLCS score was 117.20±17.19. The rotation during which the clinical learning climate was perceived most favorably was the Physical Therapy and Rehabilitation rotation (mean score: 137.77). The most negatively perceived rotation was the General Internal Medicine rotation (mean score: 104.31). There were significant differences between mean total scores in terms of trainee/intern characteristics, internal medicine/surgical medicine rotations, and perception of success. The results of this study drew attention to certain aspects of the clinical learning climate in medical schools. Clinical teacher/instructor/supervisor, clinical training programs, students' interactions in clinical settings, self-realization, mood, students' intrinsic motivation, and institutional commitment are important components of the clinical learning climate. For this reason, the aforementioned components should be taken into consideration in studies aiming to improve clinical learning climate.

  13. A study of nurses' ethical climate perceptions: Compromising in an uncompromising environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries, Anne; Woods, Martin

    2016-05-01

    Acting ethically, in accordance with professional and personal moral values, lies at the heart of nursing practice. However, contextual factors, or obstacles within the work environment, can constrain nurses in their ethical practice - hence the importance of the workplace ethical climate. Interest in nurse workplace ethical climates has snowballed in recent years because the ethical climate has emerged as a key variable in the experience of nurse moral distress. Significantly, this study appears to be the first of its kind carried out in New Zealand. The purpose of this study was to explore and describe how registered nurses working on a medical ward in a New Zealand hospital perceive their workplace ethical climate. This was a small, qualitative descriptive study. Seven registered nurses were interviewed in two focus group meetings. An inductive method of thematic data analysis was used for this research. Ethics approval for this study was granted by the New Zealand Ministry of Health's Central Regional Health and Disability Ethics Committee on 14 June 2012. The themes identified in the data centred on three dominant elements that - together - shaped the prevailing ethical climate: staffing levels, patient throughput and the attitude of some managers towards nursing staff. While findings from this study regarding staffing levels and the power dynamics between nurses and managers support those from other ethical climate studies, of note is the impact of patient throughput on local nurses' ethical practice. This issue has not been singled out as having a detrimental influence on ethical climates elsewhere. Moral distress is inevitable in an ethical climate where the organisation's main priorities are perceived by nursing staff to be budget and patient throughput, rather than patient safety and care. © The Author(s) 2015.

  14. A multicenter study: how do medical students perceive clinical learning climate?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilufer Demiral Yilmaz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The relationship between students and instructors is of crucial importance for the development of a positive learning climate. Learning climate is a multifaceted concept, and its measurement is a complicated process. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine medical students’ perceptions about the clinical learning climate and to investigate differences in their perceptions in terms of various variables. Methods: Medical students studying at six medical schools in Turkey were recruited for the study. All students who completed clinical rotations, which lasted for 3 or more weeks, were included in the study (n=3,097. Data were collected using the Clinical Learning Climate Scale (CLCS. The CLCS (36 items includes three subscales: clinical environment, emotion, and motivation. Each item is scored using a 5-point Likert scale (1: strongly disagree to 5: strongly agree. Results: The response rate for the trainees was 69.67% (n=1,519, and for the interns it was 51.47% (n=917. The mean total CLCS score was 117.20±17.19. The rotation during which the clinical learning climate was perceived most favorably was the Physical Therapy and Rehabilitation rotation (mean score: 137.77. The most negatively perceived rotation was the General Internal Medicine rotation (mean score: 104.31. There were significant differences between mean total scores in terms of trainee/intern characteristics, internal medicine/surgical medicine rotations, and perception of success. Conclusion: The results of this study drew attention to certain aspects of the clinical learning climate in medical schools. Clinical teacher/instructor/supervisor, clinical training programs, students’ interactions in clinical settings, self-realization, mood, students’ intrinsic motivation, and institutional commitment are important components of the clinical learning climate. For this reason, the aforementioned components should be taken into consideration in studies

  15. Seasonal Climate Signals in Multiple Tree-Ring Parameters: A Pilot Study of Pinus ponderosa in the Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dannenberg, M.; Wise, E. K.; Keung, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Proxy-based reconstructions of past climate have played an integral role in assessments of historical climate change, and tree-ring widths (TRW) have a long history of use in this paleoclimate research due to their annual resolution, widespread availability, and sensitivity of growth processes to variation in temperature and water availability. Increasingly, studies have shown that additional tree-ring metrics—including earlywood and latewood widths (EW and LW, respectively), maximum latewood density, and the intensity of reflected blue light from latewood (BI)—can provide additional information on seasonal climatic variability that is not present in TRW alone due to different processes that affect growth in different parts of the growing season. Studies of these additional tree-ring metrics highlight their utility in climate reconstructions, but to date they have mostly been limited to a few tree species and regions. Here, we extend the range of previous studies on alternative tree-ring metrics by evaluating the seasonal climate signals in TRW, EW, LW, and BI of Pinus ponderosa at six semiarid sites surrounding the Columbia River basin in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Cores from each site were cross-dated and EW, LW, and TRW were measured using standard dendrochronological procedures. BI was obtained using a high-resolution flatbed scanner and CooRecorder software. To evaluate the unique climate processes and seasonalities contributing to different dendrochronological metrics, monthly temperature and precipitation from each site were obtained from the PRISM climate model and were correlated with each of the tree-ring metrics using the MATLAB program SEASCORR. We also evaluate the potential of using multiple tree-ring metrics (rather than a single proxy) in reconstructions of precipitation in the PNW. Initial results suggest that 1) tree growth at each site is water-limited but with substantial differences among the sites in the strength and seasonality of

  16. The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, B. [Environment Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zwiers, F.W. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Victoria (Canada)

    2007-12-15

    This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal-interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century. (orig.)

  17. IMS study of climate, altitude, temperature and vasomotor symptoms in the United Arab Emirates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanopoulou, E; Gupta, P; Mostafa, R Mohamed; Nosair, N; Mirghani, Z; Moustafa, K; Al Kusayer, G; Sturdee, D W; Hunter, M S

    2014-08-01

    To examine the relationships between temperature, season (summer versus winter), lifestyle, health, mood, beliefs, and experience of hot flushes and night sweats (HFNS), amongst mid-aged women living in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE climate is hyper-arid, being a hot desert climate, with warm winters and hot summers. A total of 372 peri- and postmenopausal women, aged from 45 to 55 years, from urban UAE regions were included. Data were collected during both summer and winter months. Participants completed questionnaires eliciting information about sociodemographics, HFNS (prevalence, frequency and problem-rating), health and lifestyle (body mass index (BMI), diet, exercise), mood (Women's Health Questionnaire) and menopause attributions and beliefs (Menopause Representations Questionnaire). HFNS were currently being experienced by 46.5% of women, with an average weekly frequency of five and problem-rating of 5.7/10. Seasonal variation in temperature was not associated with prevalence, frequency or problem-rating. Hot flush prevalence was associated with poor health, life satisfaction, mood, employment, lower BMI and diet. Higher frequency was associated with higher BMI and more years since the last period. HFNS were more problematic mainly for women who reported lower life satisfaction and held more negative beliefs about the menopause. In this UAE study, temperature and seasonal temperature variation did not appear to influence HFNS-reporting, but health, life satisfaction, BMI, beliefs and lifestyle factors partially explained women's experiences of menopausal symptoms. A qualitative study might provide further information about the meanings of HFNS and menopause amongst UAE women.

  18. Dialogic Action in Climate Change Discussions: An International Study of High School Students in China, New Zealand, Norway and the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arya, Diana J.; Parker, Jessica K.

    2015-01-01

    Global efforts to prepare young developing minds for solving current and future challenges of climate change have advocated interdisciplinary, issues-based instructional approaches in order to transform traditional models of science education as delivering conceptual facts (UNESCO, 2014). This study is an exploration of the online interactions in…

  19. Effects of Simulated Forest Cover Change on Projected Climate Change – a Case Study of Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GÁLOS, Borbála

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climatic effects of forest cover change have been investigated for Hungary applying theregional climate model REMO. For the end of the 21st century (2071–2100 case studies have beenanalyzed assuming maximal afforestation (forests covering all vegetated area and completedeforestation (forests replaced by grasslands of the country. For 2021–2025, the climatic influence ofthe potential afforestation based on a detailed national survey has been assessed. The simulationresults indicate that maximal afforestation may reduce the projected climate change through coolerand moister conditions for the entire summer period. The magnitude of the simulated climate changemitigating effect of the forest cover increase differs among regions. The smallest climatic benefit wascalculated in the southwestern region, in the area with the potentially strongest climate change. Thestrongest effects of maximal afforestation are expected in the northeastern part of the country. Here,half of the projected precipitation decrease could be relieved and the probability of summer droughtscould be reduced. The potential afforestation has a very slight feedback on the regional climatecompared to the maximal afforestation scenario.

  20. An exploratory study on occurrence and impact of climate change on agriculture in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varadan, R. Jayakumara; Kumar, Pramod; Jha, Girish Kumar; Pal, Suresh; Singh, Rashmi

    2017-02-01

    This study has been undertaken to examine the occurrence of climate change in Tamil Nadu, the southernmost state of India and its impact on rainfall pattern which is a primary constraint for agricultural production. Among the five sample stations examined across the state, the minimum temperature has increased significantly in Coimbatore while the same has decreased significantly in Vellore whereas both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased significantly in Madurai since 1969 with climate change occurring between late 1980s and early 1990s. As a result, the south-west monsoon has been disturbed with August rainfall increasing with more dispersion while September rainfall decreasing with less dispersion. Thus, September, the peak rainfall month of south-west monsoon before climate change, has become the monsoon receding month after climate change. Though there has been no change in the trend of the north-east monsoon, the quantity of October and November rainfall has considerably increased with increased dispersion after climate change. On the whole, south-west monsoon has decreased with decreased dispersion while north-east monsoon has increased with increased dispersion. Consequently, the season window for south-west monsoon crops has shortened while the north-east monsoon crops are left to fend against flood risk during their initial stages. Further, the incoherence in warming, climate change and rainfall impact seen across the state necessitates devising different indigenous and institutional adaptation strategies for different regions to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture.

  1. Recent Advances in Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Studies in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D. R.; Moser, S. C.; Hanemann, M.; Pittiglio, S.

    2010-12-01

    The State of California is committed to preparing periodic climate change impacts and adaptation assessments to inform and develop policy in the State. The most recent assessment was released late in 2009 and a new vulnerability and adaptation assessment is underway for release in late 2011. Both assessments use IPCC climate simulations that were statistically downscaled to a horizontal resolution of about 12 Km. The 2009 California assessment attempted to translate some impacts and adaptation options into monetary terms which introduced additional uncertainties. The 2011 California assessment combines a set of coordinated statewide and regional/local studies because many adaptation options, though informed by state and national policies, will be implemented at regional and local levels. The 2011 assessment expands the number of climate simulations that are employed in order to form a fuller estimate of the potential envelope of climate change and its impacts in the state. It also introduces a subset of dynamically downscaled scenarios to understand how well statistical relationships, developed using historical data, hold up in future climate regimes. Investigations are on-going to translate the ensemble of climate simulations and to begin to attach probabilities to the scenarios using subjective and objective techniques. In addition to advances in climate simulations and downscaling techniques, the new vulnerability and adaptation assessment also increasingly integrates social science approaches to assessing vulnerabilities and adaptation options. This presentation will illustrate results from the 2009 assessment and describe the design and initial implementation of the 2011 assessment.

  2. Priority for sustainability. Study of the effects on investment climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-12-01

    The Dutch cabinet has been asked to make sure that sustainable electricity plants can be connected to the grid with high priority. By request of the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, the effects on the investment climate have been examined (both for sustainable and conventional) if priority (with regard to connection and transport) is given to sustainable generated electricity. Five models for priority for sustainable have been defined, i.e. (1) Sustainable is only given priority on the waiting list for connection; (2) Connect sustainable immediately, but no priority for transport; (3) Connect sustainable immediately and priority granted in transport; (4) Connect sustainable and conventional immediately, no priority for transport; (5) Connect sustainable and conventional immediately and give priority in transport to sustainable. [mk] [nl

  3. Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Stottlemyer, Robert; Barrow, Wylie; Fagre, Dan; Baron, Jill S.; Price, Jeff; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Allen, Craig D.; Peterson, David L.; Ruggerone, Greg; Doyle, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

  4. Impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in France: a regionalization study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najac, J.

    2008-11-01

    In this work, we study the impact of climate change on surface winds in France and draw conclusions concerning wind energy resources. Because of their coarse spatial resolution, climate models cannot properly reproduce the spatial variability of surface winds. Thus, 2 down-scaling methods are developed in order to regionalize an ensemble of climate scenarios: a statistical method based on weather typing and a statistic-dynamical method that resorts to high resolution mesoscale modelling. By 2050, significant but relatively small changes are depicted with, in particular, a decrease of the wind speed in the southern and an increase in the northern regions of France. The use of other down-scaling methods enables us to study several uncertainty sources: it appears that most of the uncertainty is due to the climate models. (author)

  5. Organizational climate and hospital nurses' caring practices: a mixed-methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roch, Geneviève; Dubois, Carl-Ardy; Clarke, Sean P

    2014-06-01

    Organizational climate in healthcare settings influences patient outcomes, but its effect on nursing care delivery remains poorly understood. In this mixed-methods study, nurse surveys (N = 292) were combined with a qualitative case study of 15 direct-care registered nurses (RNs), nursing personnel, and managers. Organizational climate explained 11% of the variation in RNs' reported frequency of caring practices. Qualitative data suggested that caring practices were affected by the interplay of organizational climate dimensions with patients and nurses characteristics. Workload intensity and role ambiguity led RNs to leave many caring practices to practical nurses and assistive personnel. Systemic interventions are needed to improve organizational climate and to support RNs' involvement in a full range of caring practices. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makowski, David; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Bassu, Simona; Durand, Jean-Louis; Martre, Pierre; Adam, Myriam; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Baron, Chritian; hide

    2015-01-01

    Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex

  7. Applicability of ranked Regional Climate Models (RCM) to assess the impact of climate change on Ganges: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Jatin; Devak, Manjula; Gosain, Ashvani Kumar; Khosa, Rakesh; Dhanya, Ct

    2017-04-01

    The negative impact of climate change is felt over wide range of spatial scales, ranging from small basins to large watershed area, which can possibly outweighs the benefits of natural water system. General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been widely used as an input to a hydrological models (HMs), to simulate different hydrological components of a river basin. However, the coarser scale of GCMs and spatio-temporal biases, restricted its use at finer resolution. If downscaled, adds one more level of uncertainty i.e., downscaling uncertainty together with model and scenario uncertainty. The outputs computed from Regional Climate Models (RCM) may aid the uncertainties arising from GCMs, as the RCMs are the miniatures of GCMs. However, the RCMs do have some inherent systematic biases, hence bias correction is a prerequisite process before it is fed to HMs. RCMs, together with the input from GCMs at later boundaries also takes topography of the area into account. Hence, RCMs need to be ranked a priori. In this study, impact of climate change on the Ganga basin, India, is assessed using the ranked RCMs. Firstly, bias correction of 14 RCM models are done using Quantile-Quantile mapping and Equidistant cumulative distribution method, for historic (1990-2004) and future scenario (2021-2100), respectively. The runoff simulations from Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), for historic scenario is used for ranking of RCMs. Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 method is employed to rank the RCMs based on five performance indicators namely, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), normalised root mean square error (NRMSE), absolute normalised mean bias error (ANMBE) and average absolute relative error (AARE). The results illustrated that each of the performance indicators behaves differently for different RCMs. RCA 4 (CNRM-CERFACS) is found as the best model with the highest value of  (0.85), followed by RCA4 (MIROC) and RCA4 (ICHEC) with  values of 0.80 and 0

  8. a Study of the Impact of Doubling Carbon Dioxide and Solar Radiation Variations on the Climate System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Shaoping

    The exchange of moisture and heat between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface fundamentally affect the dynamics and thermodynamics of the climate system. In order to trace moisture flow through the climate system and examine its impact on climate, a hydrologic cycle and a land energy balance have been developed and incorporated into a coupled climate-thermodynamic sea ice (CCSI) model. The expanded CCSI model has been tested by comparing computed climate parameters with available observations and GCM modeling results. In general, the expanded model does a good job in simulating the large scale features of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation in both space and time. The expanded model has been used to examine the possibility that increased levels of CO_2 in the atmosphere may induce the growth of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Results of the study indicate that if summer ice albedo is high enough, and there is some mechanism for initially maintaining ice through the summer season, then it may be possible to have ice sheet growth under the conditions CO_2 induced warming, mainly the result of decreased summer ice melt in response to the higher land ice albedo, and not an increase in precipitation. The expanded model has also been used to examine the impact of Milankovitch solar radiation variations on the climate system, to study the mechanisms that produce glacial-interglacial cycles, especially with respect to the initiation of ice sheets. The results show the Milankovitch solar radiation variations affect the climate system most in the polar regions with the mean annual surface air temperature varying directly in response to changes in the annually averaged incoming solar radiation. However, the seasonal variations in the surface air temperatures are much more complex with large magnitude variations for brief times during the year. The study indicates that ice sheets may start to grow under the conditions of low insolation that occurred at 25, 70, and

  9. Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices: A case study of Hamilton, Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Razavi, Tara; Switzman, Harris; Arain, Altaf; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with the development of extreme weather frequency and intensity indices at the local scale. Several different global climate models, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios were used to develop extreme temperature and precipitation indices at the local scale in the Hamilton region, Ontario, Canada. Uncertainty associated with historical and future trends in extreme indices and future climate projectio...

  10. Integrating psychosocial safety climate in the JD-R model: a study amongst Malaysian workers

    OpenAIRE

    Idris, Mohd A.; Dollard, Maureen F.; Winefield, Anthony H.

    2011-01-01

    Orientation: Job characteristics are well accepted as sources of burnout and engagement amongst employees; psychosocial safety climate may precede work conditions. Research purpose: We expanded the Job Demands and Resources (JD-R) model by proposing psychosocial safety climate (PSC) as a precursor to job demands and job resources. As PSC theoretically influences the working environment, the study hypothesized that PSC has an impact on performance via both health erosion (i.e. burnout) and ...

  11. Spurring climate-friendly behaviour change: a case study of the university of Grenoble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, Odile

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is definitely a huge challenge for the 21. century. Models in energy economics show that efficiency gains through energy productivity improvement, technical change and technological innovations towards lower carbon technologies will not be sufficient to achieve the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), i.e. stabilize greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Mitigation actions that stem from individual behaviour change towards a lower individual carbon footprint are also part of the response to the climate challenge. Depending on their current behaviour, individuals may focus on many different actions to reduce their carbon footprint, be they at home, at work or any other place: for example, they can use the public transportation system or ride their bike instead of driving their car, video conference instead of flying to a conference or a meeting, turn the heating system off if they open the window when it is cold outside or if they are out of town for some time, turn the lights off when leaving a room, set their computer in sleep mode when not using it for some time, install sockets to shut off the standby modes of their multi-media devices, reduce the amount of waste they generate by purchasing products in bulk or with little packaging, consume local products rather than goods imported from other regions or countries, follow a diet with a low-meat content, and much more. All those actions, as insignificant as they seem to be in terms of individual energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions, do have a real impact at the macro-economic level. Furthermore, they are often 'low-hanging fruit' options, easy to implement at nearly zero cost. Studies that illustrate this point are numerous and cover all GHG emitting sectors. For example, lowering room temperatures by 1 deg. C is estimated to save 7

  12. School climate, family structure, and academic achievement: a study of moderation effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Malley, Meagan; Voight, Adam; Renshaw, Tyler L; Eklund, Katie

    2015-03-01

    School climate has been lauded for its relationship to a host of desirable academic, behavioral, and social-emotional outcomes for youth. The present study tested the hypothesis that school climate counteracts youths' home-school risk by examining the moderating effects of students' school climate perceptions on the relationship between family structure (i.e., two-parent, one-parent, foster-care, and homeless households), and academic performance (i.e., self-reported [grade point average] GPA). The present sample consisted of 902 California public high schools, including responses from over 490,000 students in Grades 9 and 11. Results indicated that, regardless of family structure, students with more positive school climate perceptions self-reported higher GPAs. Youths with two-parent, one-parent, and homeless family structures displayed stepwise, linear improvements in self-reported GPA as perceptions of climate improved. Foster-care students' positive school climate perceptions had a weaker effect on their self-reported GPA compared with students living in other family structures. A unique curvilinear trend was found for homeless students, as the relationship between their school climate perceptions and self-reported GPA was stronger at lower levels. Overall, the moderation effect of positive school climate perceptions on self-reported GPA was strongest for homeless youth and youth from one-parent homes, suggesting that school climate has a protective effect for students living in these family structures. A protective effect was not found for youth in foster-care. Implications for research and practice are discussed.

  13. Organizational Climate and Work Addiction in Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, 2014: a Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafiee, Noora; Bahrami, Mohammad Amin; Zare, Vahid; Mohammadi, Mahan

    2015-12-01

    The occupational nature of employees in headquarters units of the University requires them to deal with support issues. Thus, there is some pressure on these employees to complete their assignments on time so that employees in the line units can accurately and expeditiously perform their duties. As a result, work addiction behaviors are sometimes observed among the headquarters personnel. Considering the importance of work addiction and recognizing the factors that intensify it, this study investigated the relationship between organizational climate and the work addiction of headquarters personnel at the Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences. This descriptive-analytic study was conducted using stratified random sampling of 151 University employees in 2014. The data collection tool was an organizational climate questionnaire, which was supplemented by the Work Addiction Risk Test (WART). The data were analyzed using the Pearson test, Spearman test, independent t-test, Mann-Whitney test, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and the Kruskal-Wallis test using IBM-SPSS version 20. The findings of this study showed that the organizational climate was at a moderate level, and employees were in the danger level in terms of work addiction. In addition, among the dimensions of organizational climate, the risk dimension had a significant relationship with work addiction (porganizational climate score was low and the work addiction score was at the high-risk level, this issue demands more attention of senior managers and human resource officers of organizations to improve the organizational climate and increase employees' awareness of work addiction.

  14. Automated Studies of Continuing Current in Lightning Flashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Claros, Jose

    Continuing current (CC) is a continuous luminosity in the lightning channel that lasts longer than 10 ms following a lightning return stroke to ground. Lightning flashes following CC are associated with direct damage to power lines and are thought to be responsible for causing lightning-induced forest fires. The development of an algorithm that automates continuing current detection by combining NLDN (National Lightning Detection Network) and LEFA (Langmuir Electric Field Array) datasets for CG flashes will be discussed. The algorithm was applied to thousands of cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes within 40 km of Langmuir Lab, New Mexico measured during the 2013 monsoon season. It counts the number of flashes in a single minute of data and the number of return strokes of an individual lightning flash; records the time and location of each return stroke; performs peak analysis on E-field data, and uses the slope of interstroke interval (ISI) E-field data fits to recognize whether continuing current (CC) exists within the interval. Following CC detection, duration and magnitude are measured. The longest observed C in 5588 flashes was 631 ms. The performance of the algorithm (vs. human judgement) was checked on 100 flashes. At best, the reported algorithm is "correct" 80% of the time, where correct means that multiple stations agree with each other and with a human on both the presence and duration of CC. Of the 100 flashes that were validated against human judgement, 62% were hybrid. Automated analysis detects the first but misses the second return stroke in many cases where the second return stroke is followed by long CC. This problem is also present in human interpretation of field change records.

  15. Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartolino, V.; Margonski, P.; Lindegren, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios...... of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct......-term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long-term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change...

  16. The Costs of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Ortiz, Ramon A.; Markandya, Anil

    2011-01-01

    Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns as a result of climate change are widely recognized to entail potentially serious consequences for human health, including an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. This study integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall...... to climate change are shown to be in the range of 0.32 to 1.4 percent of GDP in Tanzania 2030. The results provide useful insights into national-level estimates of the implications of climate change on the health sector and offer information which can feed into both national and international debates...... risk of cholera increases by 15 to 29 percent. Based on the modeling results, we project the number and costs of additional cases of cholera that can be attributed to climate change by 2030 in Tanzania for a 1 and 2 degree increase in temperatures, respectively. The total costs of cholera attributable...

  17. REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING STUDY FOR THE CARPATHIAN REGION USING REGCM4 EXPERIMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PIECZKA I.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The newest model version of RegCM is adapted with the ultimate aim of providing climate projection for the Carpathian region with 10 km horizontal resolution. For this purpose, first, coarse resolution reanalysis data and global climate model outputs are used to drive 50 km resolution model experiments, from which the outputs are used to provide necessary boundary conditions for the fine scale model runs. Besides the historical runs (for the period 1981-2010, RCP4.5 scenario is also analyzed in this paper for the 21st century. These experiments are essential since they form the basis of national climate and adaptation strategies by providing detailed regional scale climatic projections and enabling specific impact studies for various sectors.

  18. Study of high-energy neutrino neutral-current interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aderholz, M.; Aggarwal, M.M.; Akbari, H.; Allport, P.P.; Badyal, S.K.; Ballagh, H.C.; Barth, M.; Baton, J.P.; Bingham, H.H.; Brucker, E.B.; Burnstein, R.A.; Campbell, J.R.; Cence, R.J.; Chatterjee, T.K.; Clayton, E.F.; Corrigan, G.; Coutures, C.; DeProspo, D.; Devanand; De Wolf, E.A.; Faulkner, P.J.W.; Foeth, H.; Fretter, W.B.; Gupta, V.K.; Hanlon, J.; Harigel, G.; Harris, F.A.; Jabiol, M.A.; Jacques, P.; Jain, V.; Jones, G.T.; Jones, M.D.; Kafka, T.; Kalelkar, M.; Kasper, P.; Kohli, J.M.; Koller, E.L.; Krawiec, R.J.; Lauko, M.; Lys, J.E.; Marage, P.; Milburn, R.H.; Miller, D.B.; Mittra, I.S.; Mobayyen, M.M.; Moreels, J.; Morrison, D.R.O.; Myatt, G.; Nailor, P.; Naon, R.; Napier, A.; Neveu, M.; Passmore, D.; Peters, M.W.; Peterson, V.Z.; Plano, R.; Rao, N.K.; Rubin, H.A.; Sacton, J.; Sambyal, S.S.; Schmitz, N.; Schneps, J.; Singh, J.B.; Smart, W.; Stamer, P.; Varvell, K.E.; Verluyten, L.; Wachsmuth, H.; Wainstein, S.; Willocq, S.; Yost, G.P.

    1992-01-01

    From an exposure of the Fermilab 15-foot bubble chamber to the Tevatron quadrupole triplet neutrino beam, we have determined the ratio of neutral-current (NC) to charged-current (CC) interactions to be 0.288±0.032 for events with visible hadron momentum above 10 GeV/c. The mean ν(bar ν) event energy is 150 (110) GeV, which is higher than that for any previous beam. This result agrees with those from previous experiments at lower energies. The NC/CC ratio is derived for a combined sample of ν and bar ν events. A value of 0.274±0.038 is obtained for the dominant ν component assuming bar ν NC/CC=0.39±0.08. For events with visible hadron momentum above 25 GeV/c, where the neutral hadron contamination remaining in the NC sampl