WorldWideScience

Sample records for cumulus ensemble gce

  1. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE): Improvements and Applications for Studying Precipitation Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Zeng, Xiping; Li, Xiaowen; Matsui, Toshi; Mohr, Karen; Posselt, Derek; Chern, Jiundar; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Norris, Peter M.; Kang, In-Sik; Choi, Ildae; Hou, Arthur; Lau, K.-M.; Yang, Young-Min

    2014-01-01

    Convection is the primary transport process in the Earth's atmosphere. About two-thirds of the Earth's rainfall and severe floods derive from convection. In addition, two-thirds of the global rain falls in the tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) have been used to improve our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes and phenomena from micro-scale to cloud-scale and mesoscale as well as their interactions with radiation and surface processes. CRMs use sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes and can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems. CRMs also allow for explicit interaction between clouds, outgoing longwave (cooling) and incoming solar (heating) radiation, and ocean and land surface processes. Observations are required to initialize CRMs and to validate their results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past three decades. It is amulti-dimensional non-hydrostatic CRM that can simulate clouds and cloud systems in different environments. Early improvements and testing were presented in Tao and Simpson (1993) and Tao et al. (2003a). A review on the application of the GCE to the understanding of precipitation processes can be found in Simpson and Tao (1993) and Tao (2003). In this paper, recent model improvements (microphysics, radiation and land surface processes) are described along with their impact and performance on cloud and precipitation events in different geographic locations via comparisons with observations. In addition, recent advanced applications of the GCE are presented that include understanding the physical processes responsible for diurnal variation, examining the impact of aerosols (cloud condensation nuclei or CCN and ice nuclei or IN) on

  2. Parallelization of the NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model for Massively Parallel Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hann-Ming Henry Juang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Massively parallel computing, using a message passing interface (MPI, has been implemented into a three-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE model. The implementation uses the domainresemble concept to design a code structure for both the whole domain and sub-domains after decomposition. Instead of inserting a group of MPI related statements into the model routine, these statements are packed into a single routine. In other words, only a single call statement to the model code is utilized once in a place, thus there is minimal impact on the original code. Therefore, the model is easily modified and/or managed by the model developers and/or users, who have little knowledge of massively parallel computing.

  3. Fluctuations in a quasi-stationary shallow cumulus cloud ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sakradzija

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available We propose an approach to stochastic parameterization of shallow cumulus clouds to represent the convective variability and its dependence on the model resolution. To collect the information about the individual cloud lifecycles and the cloud ensemble as a whole, we employ a Large-Eddy Simulation model (LES and a cloud tracking algorithm, followed by conditional sampling of clouds at the cloud-base level. In the case of a shallow cumulus ensemble, the cloud-base mass flux distribution is bimodal due to the different shallow cloud subtypes. Each distribution mode can be approximated with a Weibull distribution, explaining the deviation from a single-parameter exponential shape through the diversity in cloud lifecycles. The exponential distribution of cloud mass flux previously suggested for deep convection parameterization is a special case of the Weibull distribution, which opens a way towards unification of the statistical convective ensemble formalism of shallow and deep cumulus clouds. Based on the empirical and theoretical findings, a stochastic model has been developed to simulate a shallow convective cloud ensemble. It is formulated as a compound random process, with the number of convective elements drawn from a Poisson distribution, and the cloud mass flux sampled from a mixed Weibull distribution. Convective memory is accounted for through the explicit cloud lifecycles, making the model formulation consistent with the choice of the Weibull cloud mass flux distribution function. The memory of individual shallow clouds is required to capture the correct convective variability. The resulting distribution of the subgrid convective states in the considered shallow cumulus case is scale-adaptive – the smaller the grid size, the broader the distribution.

  4. Fluctuations in a quasi-stationary shallow cumulus cloud ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sakradzija

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose an approach to stochastic parameterisation of shallow cumulus clouds to represent the convective variability and its dependence on the model resolution. To collect information about the individual cloud lifecycles and the cloud ensemble as a whole, we employ a large eddy simulation (LES model and a cloud tracking algorithm, followed by conditional sampling of clouds at the cloud-base level. In the case of a shallow cumulus ensemble, the cloud-base mass flux distribution is bimodal, due to the different shallow cloud subtypes, active and passive clouds. Each distribution mode can be approximated using a Weibull distribution, which is a generalisation of exponential distribution by accounting for the change in distribution shape due to the diversity of cloud lifecycles. The exponential distribution of cloud mass flux previously suggested for deep convection parameterisation is a special case of the Weibull distribution, which opens a way towards unification of the statistical convective ensemble formalism of shallow and deep cumulus clouds. Based on the empirical and theoretical findings, a stochastic model has been developed to simulate a shallow convective cloud ensemble. It is formulated as a compound random process, with the number of convective elements drawn from a Poisson distribution, and the cloud mass flux sampled from a mixed Weibull distribution. Convective memory is accounted for through the explicit cloud lifecycles, making the model formulation consistent with the choice of the Weibull cloud mass flux distribution function. The memory of individual shallow clouds is required to capture the correct convective variability. The resulting distribution of the subgrid convective states in the considered shallow cumulus case is scale-adaptive – the smaller the grid size, the broader the distribution.

  5. Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment. III - Semi-prognostic test of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lord, S. J.

    1982-01-01

    The verification of the Arakawa and Schubert (1974) cumulus parameterization is continued using a semiprognostic approach. Observed data from Phase III of GATE are used to provide estimates of the large-scale forcing of a cumulus ensemble at each observation time. Instantaneous values of the precipitation and the warming and drying due to cumulus convection are calculated using the parameterization. The results show that the calculated precipitation agrees very well with estimates from the observed large-scale moisture budget and from radar observations. The calculated vertical profiles of cumulus warming and drying also are quite similar to the observed. It is shown that the closure assumption adopted in the parameterization (the cloud-work function quasi-equilibrium) results in errors of generally less than 10% in the calculated precipitation. The sensitivity of the parameterization to some assumptions of the cloud ensemble model and the solution method for the cloud-base mass flux is investigated.

  6. China summer precipitation simulations using an optimal ensemble of cumulus schemes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shuyan LIU; Wei GAO; Min XU; Xueyuan WANG; Xin-Zhong LIANG

    2009-01-01

    RegCM3 (REGional Climate Model) simulations of precipitation in China in 1991 and 1998 are very sensitive to the cumulus parameterization. Among the four schemes available, none has superior skills over the whole of China, but each captures certain observed signals in distinct regions. The Grell scheme with the FritschChappell closure produces the smallest biases over the North; the Grell scheme with the Arakawa-Schubert closure performs the best over the southeast of 100°E;the Anthes-Kuo scheme is superior over the northeast; and the Emanuel scheme is more realistic over the southwest of 100~E and along the Yangtze River Basin. These differences indicate a strong degree of independence and complementarity between the parameterizations. As such,an ensemble is developed from the four schemes, whose relative contributions or weights are optimized locally to yield overall minimum root-mean-square errors from observed daily precipitation. The skill gain is evaluated by applying the identical distribution of the weights in a different period. It is shown that the ensemble always produces gross biases that are smaller than the individual schemes in both 1991 and 1998. The ensemble, however,cannot eliminate the large rainfall deficits over the southwest of 100°E and along the Yangtze River Basin that are systematic across all schemes. Further improvements can be made by a super-ensemble based on more cumulus schemes and/or multiple models.

  7. Integrated cumulus ensemble and turbulence (ICET): An integrated parameterization system for general circulation models (GCMs)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.L.; Frank, W.M.; Young, G.S. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Successful simulations of the global circulation and climate require accurate representation of the properties of shallow and deep convective clouds, stable-layer clouds, and the interactions between various cloud types, the boundary layer, and the radiative fluxes. Each of these phenomena play an important role in the global energy balance, and each must be parameterized in a global climate model. These processes are highly interactive. One major problem limiting the accuracy of parameterizations of clouds and other processes in general circulation models (GCMs) is that most of the parameterization packages are not linked with a common physical basis. Further, these schemes have not, in general, been rigorously verified against observations adequate to the task of resolving subgrid-scale effects. To address these problems, we are designing a new Integrated Cumulus Ensemble and Turbulence (ICET) parameterization scheme, installing it in a climate model (CCM2), and evaluating the performance of the new scheme using data from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) sites.

  8. A Regulation of Tropical Climate by Radiative Cooling as Simulated in a Cumulus Ensemble Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, Chung-Hsiung; Lau, K.-M.; Li, X.; Chou, M.-D.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Responses of tropical atmosphere to low-boundary forcing are investigated in a 2-D cumulus ensemble model (CEM) with an imposed warm-pool and cold-pool SST contrast (deltaSST). The domain-mean vertical motion is constrained to produce heat sink and moisture source as in the observed tropical climate. In a series of experiments, the warm pool SST is specified at different values while the cold pool SST is specified at 26 C. The strength of the circulation increases with increasing deltaSST until deltaSST reaches 3.5 C, and remains unchanged as deltaSST exceeds 3.5 C. The regulation of tropical convection by zonal SST gradient is constrained by the radiative cooling over the cold pool. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an enhanced subsidence warming is balanced by a reduced condensation heating over the cold pool. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, the subsidence regime expands over the entire cold pool where no condensation heating exist so that a further enhanced subsidence warming can no longer be sustained. The above regulation mechanism is also evident in the change of energy at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) that is dominated by cloud and water vapor greenhouse effect (c (sub LW)) and G (sub clear). The change in shortwave radiation at TOA is largely cancelled between the warm pool and cold pool, likely due to the same imposed vertical motion in our experiments. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an increase of deltaSST is associated with a large increase in c (sub Lw) due to increased total clouds in response to enhanced SST-induced circulation. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, clouds over the warm pool decrease with increasing SST, and the change in c (sub LW) is much smaller. In both dSST regimes, the change in CLW is larger than the change in G(sub clear) which is slightly negative. However, in the case of uniform warming (deltaSST=0), DeltaG(sub clear), is positive, approximately 5 W per square meters per degree change of SST.

  9. Sensitivities of Cumulus-Ensemble Rainfall in a Cloud-Resolving Model with Parameterized Large-Scale Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mapes, Brian E.

    2004-09-01

    The problem of closure in cumulus parameterization requires an understanding of the sensitivities of convective cloud systems to their large-scale setting. As a step toward such an understanding, this study probes some sensitivities of a simulated ensemble of convective clouds in a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model (CRM). The ensemble is initially in statistical equilibrium with a steady imposed background forcing (cooling and moistening). Large-scale stimuli are imposed as horizontally uniform perturbations nudged into the model fields over 10 min, and the rainfall response of the model clouds is monitored.In order to reduce a major source of artificial insensitivity in the CRM, a simple parameterization scheme is devised to account for heating-induced large-scale (i.e., domain averaged) vertical motions that would develop in nature but are forbidden by the periodic boundary conditions. The effects of this large-scale vertical motion are parameterized as advective tendency terms that are applied as a uniform forcing throughout the domain, just like the background forcing. This parameterized advection is assumed to lag rainfall (used as a proxy for heating) by a specified time scale. The time scale determines (via a gravity wave space time conversion factor) the size of the large-scale region represented by the periodic CRM domain, which can be of arbitrary size or dimensionality.The sensitivity of rain rate to deep cooling and moistening, representing an upward displacement by a large-scale wave of first baroclinic mode structure, is positive. Near linearity is found for ±1 K perturbations, and the sensitivity is about equally divided between temperature and moisture effects. For a second baroclinic mode (vertical dipole) displacement, the sign of the perturbation in the lower troposphere dominates the convective response. In this dipole case, the initial sensitivity is very large, but quantitative results are distorted by the oversimplified large

  10. #605899 GLYCINE ENCEPHALOPATHY; GCE [OMIM

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available ed clinical and electrophysiologic improvement in a child with GCE who was treated with dextromethorphan and... 65 hours of life. The child died at 5 months and 7 days of age in spite of increasing doses of dextromethorphan.... After the patient developed hypsarrhythmia and had a single seizure, treatment with both sodium benzoate and dextromethorphan... mental retardation. Discontinuation of dextromethorphan after one year did not change the clinical or EEG s... I.; Fiorini, P.: Failure of early dextromethorphan and sodium benzoate therapy in an infant with nonketotic

  11. Semiprognostic tests of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization using simulated data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kuan-Man; Arakawa, Akio

    1992-01-01

    Semiprognostic tests are performed against data simulated by a cumulus ensemble model to evaluate the Arakawa-Schubert (A-S) cumulus parametrization. It is found that the A-S cumulus parametrization is generally valid despite the existence of mesoscale organization in cumulus convection. The nondiagnostic and nondeterministic aspects of the A-S cumulus parametrization are examined by testing the sensitivity of the parametrization to the horizontal grid resolution. It is also shown that the inclusion of convective-scale downdrafts improves the results of semiprognostic tests.

  12. Use NU-WRF and GCE Model to Simulate the Precipitation Processes During MC3E Campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wu, Di; Matsui, Toshi; Li, Xiaowen; Zeng, Xiping; Peter-Lidard, Christa; Hou, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    One of major CRM approaches to studying precipitation processes is sometimes referred to as "cloud ensemble modeling". This approach allows many clouds of various sizes and stages of their lifecycles to be present at any given simulation time. Large-scale effects derived from observations are imposed into CRMs as forcing, and cyclic lateral boundaries are used. The advantage of this approach is that model results in terms of rainfall and QI and Q2 usually are in good agreement with observations. In addition, the model results provide cloud statistics that represent different types of clouds/cloud systems during their lifetime (life cycle). The large-scale forcing derived from MC3EI will be used to drive GCE model simulations. The model-simulated results will be compared with observations from MC3E. These GCE model-simulated datasets are especially valuable for LH algorithm developers. In addition, the regional scale model with very high-resolution, NASA Unified WRF is also used to real time forecast during the MC3E campaign to ensure that the precipitation and other meteorological forecasts are available to the flight planning team and to interpret the forecast results in terms of proposed flight scenarios. Post Mission simulations are conducted to examine the sensitivity of initial and lateral boundary conditions to cloud and precipitation processes and rainfall. We will compare model results in terms of precipitation and surface rainfall using GCE model and NU-WRF

  13. Visualizing Cumulus Clouds in Virtual Reality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Griffith, E.J.

    2010-01-01

    This thesis focuses on interactively visualizing, and ultimately simulating, cumulus clouds both in virtual reality (VR) and with a standard desktop computer. The cumulus clouds in question are found in data sets generated by Large-Eddy Simulations (LES), which are used to simulate a small section

  14. Visualizing Cumulus Clouds in Virtual Reality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Griffith, E.J.

    2010-01-01

    This thesis focuses on interactively visualizing, and ultimately simulating, cumulus clouds both in virtual reality (VR) and with a standard desktop computer. The cumulus clouds in question are found in data sets generated by Large-Eddy Simulations (LES), which are used to simulate a small section o

  15. Bovine cumulus-oocyte disconnection in vitro

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maddox-Hyttel, Poul

    1987-01-01

    Cumulus-oocyte complexes were obtained from cows by aspiration of small (1-6 mm in diameter) antral follicles after slaughter. Complexes with a compact multilayered cumulus investment were cultured and processed for transmission electron microscopy after different periods of culture including a 0...

  16. Bovine cumulus-oocyte disconnection in vitro

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maddox-Hyttel, Poul

    1987-01-01

    Cumulus-oocyte complexes were obtained from cows by aspiration of small (1-6 mm in diameter) antral follicles after slaughter. Complexes with a compact multilayered cumulus investment were cultured and processed for transmission electron microscopy after different periods of culture including a 0...... frequency of gap junctions was maintained until 12-18 h of culture where the junctional contact was completely disrupted. This decrease in intercellular communication was parallelled by resumption of oocyte meiosis....

  17. VizieR Online Data Catalog: Solar s-process contributions with GCE model (Bisterzo+, 2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisterzo, S.; Travaglio, C.; Gallino, R.; Wiescher, M.; Kappeler, F.

    2017-08-01

    The general structure of the GCE model adopted in this work is the same described by Travaglio et al. (2004ApJ...601..864T). The GCE model follows the composition of stars, stellar remnants, interstellar matter (atomic and molecular gas), and their mutual interaction, in the three main zones of the Galaxy, halo, thick disk, and thin disk. We concentrate on the chemical evolution inside the solar annulus, located 8.5 kpc from the Galactic center. The thin disk is divided into independent concentric annuli, and we neglect any dependence on Galactocentric radius. (1 data file).

  18. Cumulus Parameterization: Those Who Can Remember the Past Are Condemned to Repeat It

    CERN Document Server

    Del Genio, Anthony D

    2016-01-01

    Moist convection plays a leading role in the dynamics and energy budget of Earth's tropics and influences the sensitivity of Earth's climate to greenhouse gas increases. Because individual convective cells are much smaller than the gridboxes of 3-dimensional global climate models (GCMs), these models parameterize the effects of an ensemble of moist convective updrafts and downdrafts on the environment. Cumulus parameterization has been a focus of the terrestrial meteorology community for half a century. Only in past decade, however, have GCMs with moist convective physics been applied to other planets. Given our lack of detailed knowledge about convective clouds except on Earth, planetary GCMs are often designed with very simple approaches to cumulus parameterization, adopted from the earliest generations of terrestrial GCMs. These parameterizations were based on breakthroughs in understanding of convection in their time. However, at the same time that planetary GCMs have begun to emerge, a quiet revolution i...

  19. Ensemble Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Re, Matteo; Valentini, Giorgio

    2012-03-01

    Ensemble methods are statistical and computational learning procedures reminiscent of the human social learning behavior of seeking several opinions before making any crucial decision. The idea of combining the opinions of different "experts" to obtain an overall “ensemble” decision is rooted in our culture at least from the classical age of ancient Greece, and it has been formalized during the Enlightenment with the Condorcet Jury Theorem[45]), which proved that the judgment of a committee is superior to those of individuals, provided the individuals have reasonable competence. Ensembles are sets of learning machines that combine in some way their decisions, or their learning algorithms, or different views of data, or other specific characteristics to obtain more reliable and more accurate predictions in supervised and unsupervised learning problems [48,116]. A simple example is represented by the majority vote ensemble, by which the decisions of different learning machines are combined, and the class that receives the majority of “votes” (i.e., the class predicted by the majority of the learning machines) is the class predicted by the overall ensemble [158]. In the literature, a plethora of terms other than ensembles has been used, such as fusion, combination, aggregation, and committee, to indicate sets of learning machines that work together to solve a machine learning problem [19,40,56,66,99,108,123], but in this chapter we maintain the term ensemble in its widest meaning, in order to include the whole range of combination methods. Nowadays, ensemble methods represent one of the main current research lines in machine learning [48,116], and the interest of the research community on ensemble methods is witnessed by conferences and workshops specifically devoted to ensembles, first of all the multiple classifier systems (MCS) conference organized by Roli, Kittler, Windeatt, and other researchers of this area [14,62,85,149,173]. Several theories have been

  20. Empowering Cloud Resolving Models Through GPU and Asynchronous IO Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Facilitate use of Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE), Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), and Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) with bin...

  1. Cumulus convection and the terrestrial water-vapor distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Leo J.

    1988-01-01

    Cumulus convection plays a significant role in determining the structure of the terrestrial water vapor field. Cumulus convection acts directly on the moisture field by condensing and precipitating water vapor and by redistributing water vapor through cumulus induced eddy circulations. The mechanisms by which cumulus convection influences the terrestrial water vapor distribution is outlined. Calculations using a theory due to Kuo is used to illustrate the mechanisms by which cumulus convection works. Understanding of these processes greatly aids the ability of researchers to interpret the seasonal and spatial distribution of atmospheric water vapor by providing information on the nature of sources and sinks and the global circulation.

  2. NYYD Ensemble

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2002-01-01

    NYYD Ensemble'i duost Traksmann - Lukk E.-S. Tüüri teosega "Symbiosis", mis on salvestatud ka hiljuti ilmunud NYYD Ensemble'i CDle. 2. märtsil Rakvere Teatri väikeses saalis ja 3. märtsil Rotermanni Soolalaos, kavas Tüür, Kaumann, Berio, Reich, Yun, Hauta-aho, Buckinx

  3. Sky cover from MFRSR observations: cumulus clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Kassianov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The diffuse all-sky surface irradiances measured at two nearby wavelengths in the visible spectral range and their model clear-sky counterparts are two main components of a new method for estimating the fractional sky cover of different cloud types, including cumulus clouds. The performance of this method is illustrated using 1-min resolution data from ground-based Multi-Filter Rotating Shadowband Radiometer (MFRSR. The MFRSR data are collected at the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM Climate Research Facility (ACRF Southern Great Plains (SGP site during the summer of 2007 and represent 13 days with cumulus clouds. Good agreement is obtained between estimated values of the fractional sky cover and those provided by a well-established independent method based on broadband observations.

  4. Impacts of Cumulus Momentum Transport on MJO Simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LING Jian; LI Chongyin; JIA Xiaolong

    2009-01-01

    Vertical cumulus momentum transport is an important physical process in the tropical atmosphere and plays a key role in the evolution of the tropical atmospheric system.This paper focuses on the impact of the vertical cumulus momentum transport on Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulation in two global climate models (GCMs).The Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme is applied to both GCMs [CAM2 and Spectral Atmospheric general circulation Model of LASG/IAP (SAMIL)].It is found that the MJO simulation ability might be influenced by the vertical cumulus momentum transport through the cumulus parameterization scheme.However,the use of vertical momentum transport in different models provides different results.In order to improve model's MJO simulation ability,we must introduce vertical cumulus momentum transport in a more reasonable way into models.Furthermore,the coherence of the parameterization and the underlying model also need to be considered.

  5. Genetic Evidence for Function of the bHLH-PAS Protein Gce/Met As a Juvenile Hormone Receptor.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Jindra

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Juvenile hormones (JHs play a major role in controlling development and reproduction in insects and other arthropods. Synthetic JH-mimicking compounds such as methoprene are employed as potent insecticides against significant agricultural, household and disease vector pests. However, a receptor mediating effects of JH and its insecticidal mimics has long been the subject of controversy. The bHLH-PAS protein Methoprene-tolerant (Met, along with its Drosophila melanogaster paralog germ cell-expressed (Gce, has emerged as a prime JH receptor candidate, but critical evidence that this protein must bind JH to fulfill its role in normal insect development has been missing. Here, we show that Gce binds a native D. melanogaster JH, its precursor methyl farnesoate, and some synthetic JH mimics. Conditional on this ligand binding, Gce mediates JH-dependent gene expression and the hormone's vital role during development of the fly. Any one of three different single amino acid mutations in the ligand-binding pocket that prevent binding of JH to the protein block these functions. Only transgenic Gce capable of binding JH can restore sensitivity to JH mimics in D. melanogaster Met-null mutants and rescue viability in flies lacking both Gce and Met that would otherwise die at pupation. Similarly, the absence of Gce and Met can be compensated by expression of wild-type but not mutated transgenic D. melanogaster Met protein. This genetic evidence definitively establishes Gce/Met in a JH receptor role, thus resolving a long-standing question in arthropod biology.

  6. Motility contrast imaging of live porcine cumulus-oocyte complexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Ran; Turek, John; Machaty, Zoltan; Nolte, David

    2013-02-01

    Freshly-harvested porcine oocytes are invested with cumulus granulosa cells in cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs). The cumulus cell layer is usually too thick to image the living oocyte under a conventional microscope. Therefore, it is difficult to assess the oocyte viability. The low success rate of implantation is the main problem for in vitro fertilization. In this paper, we demonstrate our dynamic imaging technique called motility contrast imaging (MCI) that provides a non-invasive way to monitor the COCs before and after maturation. MCI shows a change of intracellular activity during oocyte maturation, and a measures dynamic contrast between the cumulus granulosa shell and the oocytes. MCI also shows difference in the spectral response between oocytes that were graded into quality classes. MCI is based on shortcoherence digital holography. It uses intracellular motility as the endogenous imaging contrast of living tissue. MCI presents a new approach for cumulus-oocyte complex assessment.

  7. Ensembl 2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aken, Bronwen L.; Achuthan, Premanand; Akanni, Wasiu; Amode, M. Ridwan; Bernsdorff, Friederike; Bhai, Jyothish; Billis, Konstantinos; Carvalho-Silva, Denise; Cummins, Carla; Clapham, Peter; Gil, Laurent; Girón, Carlos García; Gordon, Leo; Hourlier, Thibaut; Hunt, Sarah E.; Janacek, Sophie H.; Juettemann, Thomas; Keenan, Stephen; Laird, Matthew R.; Lavidas, Ilias; Maurel, Thomas; McLaren, William; Moore, Benjamin; Murphy, Daniel N.; Nag, Rishi; Newman, Victoria; Nuhn, Michael; Ong, Chuang Kee; Parker, Anne; Patricio, Mateus; Riat, Harpreet Singh; Sheppard, Daniel; Sparrow, Helen; Taylor, Kieron; Thormann, Anja; Vullo, Alessandro; Walts, Brandon; Wilder, Steven P.; Zadissa, Amonida; Kostadima, Myrto; Martin, Fergal J.; Muffato, Matthieu; Perry, Emily; Ruffier, Magali; Staines, Daniel M.; Trevanion, Stephen J.; Cunningham, Fiona; Yates, Andrew; Zerbino, Daniel R.; Flicek, Paul

    2017-01-01

    Ensembl (www.ensembl.org) is a database and genome browser for enabling research on vertebrate genomes. We import, analyse, curate and integrate a diverse collection of large-scale reference data to create a more comprehensive view of genome biology than would be possible from any individual dataset. Our extensive data resources include evidence-based gene and regulatory region annotation, genome variation and gene trees. An accompanying suite of tools, infrastructure and programmatic access methods ensure uniform data analysis and distribution for all supported species. Together, these provide a comprehensive solution for large-scale and targeted genomics applications alike. Among many other developments over the past year, we have improved our resources for gene regulation and comparative genomics, and added CRISPR/Cas9 target sites. We released new browser functionality and tools, including improved filtering and prioritization of genome variation, Manhattan plot visualization for linkage disequilibrium and eQTL data, and an ontology search for phenotypes, traits and disease. We have also enhanced data discovery and access with a track hub registry and a selection of new REST end points. All Ensembl data are freely released to the scientific community and our source code is available via the open source Apache 2.0 license. PMID:27899575

  8. Effects of cumulus parameterization closures on simulations of summer precipitation over the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Fengxue; Liang, Xin-Zhong

    2016-09-01

    This study examines the effects of five cumulus closure assumptions on simulations of summer precipitation in the continental U.S. by utilizing an ensemble cumulus parameterization (ECP) that incorporates multiple alternate closure schemes into a single cloud model formulation. Results demonstrate that closure algorithms significantly affect the summer mean, daily frequency and intensity, and diurnal variation of precipitation, with strong regional dependence. Overall, the vertical velocity (W) closure produces the smallest summer mean biases, while the moisture convergence (MC) closure most realistically reproduces daily variability. Both closures have advantages over others in simulating U.S. daily rainfall frequency distribution, though both slightly overestimate intense rain events. The MC closure is superior at capturing summer rainfall amount, daily variability, and heavy rainfall frequency over the Central U.S., but systematically produces wet biases over the North American Monsoon (NAM) region and Southeast U.S., which can be reduced by using the W closure. The instability tendency (TD) and the total instability adjustment (KF) closures are better at capturing observed diurnal signals over the Central U.S. and the NAM, respectively. The results reasonably explain the systematic behaviors of several major cumulus parameterizations. A preliminary experiment combining two optimal closures (averaged moisture convergence and vertical velocity) in the ECP scheme significantly reduced the wet (dry) biases over the Southeast U.S. in the summer of 1993 (2003), and greatly improved daily rainfall correlations over the NAM. Further improved model simulation skills may be achieved in the future if optimal closures and their appropriate weights can be derived at different time scales based on specific climate regimes.

  9. Effects of cumulus parameterization closures on simulations of summer precipitation over the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Fengxue; Liang, Xin-Zhong

    2017-07-01

    This study examines the effects of five cumulus closure assumptions on simulations of summer precipitation in the continental U.S. by utilizing an ensemble cumulus parameterization (ECP) that incorporates multiple alternate closure schemes into a single cloud model formulation. Results demonstrate that closure algorithms significantly affect the summer mean, daily frequency and intensity, and diurnal variation of precipitation, with strong regional dependence. Overall, the vertical velocity (W) closure produces the smallest summer mean biases, while the moisture convergence (MC) closure most realistically reproduces daily variability. Both closures have advantages over others in simulating U.S. daily rainfall frequency distribution, though both slightly overestimate intense rain events. The MC closure is superior at capturing summer rainfall amount, daily variability, and heavy rainfall frequency over the Central U.S., but systematically produces wet biases over the North American Monsoon (NAM) region and Southeast U.S., which can be reduced by using the W closure. The instability tendency (TD) and the total instability adjustment (KF) closures are better at capturing observed diurnal signals over the Central U.S. and the NAM, respectively. The results reasonably explain the systematic behaviors of several major cumulus parameterizations. A preliminary experiment combining two optimal closures (averaged moisture convergence and vertical velocity) in the ECP scheme significantly reduced the wet (dry) biases over the Southeast U.S. in the summer of 1993 (2003), and greatly improved daily rainfall correlations over the NAM. Further improved model simulation skills may be achieved in the future if optimal closures and their appropriate weights can be derived at different time scales based on specific climate regimes.

  10. Cumulus cloud venting of mixed layer ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ching, J. K. S.; Shipley, S. T.; Browell, E. V.; Brewer, D. A.

    1985-01-01

    Observations are presented which substantiate the hypothesis that significant vertical exchange of ozone and aerosols occurs between the mixed layer and the free troposphere during cumulus cloud convective activity. The experiments utilized the airborne Ultra-Violet Differential Absorption Lidar (UV-DIAL) system. This system provides simultaneous range resolved ozone concentration and aerosol backscatter profiles with high spatial resolution. Evening transects were obtained in the downwind area where the air mass had been advected. Space-height analyses for the evening flight show the cloud debris as patterns of ozone typically in excess of the ambient free tropospheric background. This ozone excess was approximately the value of the concentration difference between the mixed layer and free troposphere determined from independent vertical soundings made by another aircraft in the afternoon.

  11. Simulation of solar radiative transfer in cumulus clouds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zuev, V.E.; Titov, G.A. [Institute of Atmospheric Optics, Tomsk (Russian Federation)

    1996-04-01

    This work presents a 3-D model of radiative transfer which is used to study the relationship between the spatial distribution of cumulus clouds and fluxes (albedo and transmittance) of visible solar radiation.

  12. The Effect of Cumulus Cloud Field Anisotropy on Domain-Averaged Solar Fluxes and Atmospheric Heating Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinkelman, Laura M.; Evans, K. Franklin; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Ackerman, Thomas P.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

    2006-01-01

    Cumulus clouds can become tilted or elongated in the presence of wind shear. Nevertheless, most studies of the interaction of cumulus clouds and radiation have assumed these clouds to be isotropic. This paper describes an investigation of the effect of fair-weather cumulus cloud field anisotropy on domain-averaged solar fluxes and atmospheric heating rate profiles. A stochastic field generation algorithm was used to produce twenty three-dimensional liquid water content fields based on the statistical properties of cloud scenes from a large eddy simulation. Progressively greater degrees of x-z plane tilting and horizontal stretching were imposed on each of these scenes, so that an ensemble of scenes was produced for each level of distortion. The resulting scenes were used as input to a three-dimensional Monte Carlo radiative transfer model. Domain-average transmission, reflection, and absorption of broadband solar radiation were computed for each scene along with the average heating rate profile. Both tilt and horizontal stretching were found to significantly affect calculated fluxes, with the amount and sign of flux differences depending strongly on sun position relative to cloud distortion geometry. The mechanisms by which anisotropy interacts with solar fluxes were investigated by comparisons to independent pixel approximation and tilted independent pixel approximation computations for the same scenes. Cumulus anisotropy was found to most strongly impact solar radiative transfer by changing the effective cloud fraction, i.e., the cloud fraction when the field is projected on a surface perpendicular to the direction of the incident solar beam.

  13. Composed ensembles of random unitary ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Pozniak, M; Kus, M; Pozniak, Marcin; Zyczkowski, Karol; Kus, Marek

    1997-01-01

    Composed ensembles of random unitary matrices are defined via products of matrices, each pertaining to a given canonical circular ensemble of Dyson. We investigate statistical properties of spectra of some composed ensembles and demonstrate their physical relevance. We discuss also the methods of generating random matrices distributed according to invariant Haar measure on the orthogonal and unitary group.

  14. Protection of cumulus cells following dehydroepiandrosterone supplementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Li-Te; Wang, Peng-Hui; Chen, San-Nung; Li, Chia-Jung; Wen, Zhi-Hong; Cheng, Jiin-Tsuey; Tsui, Kuan-Hao

    2017-02-01

    Growing studies have demonstrated that dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) may improve fertility outcomes in poor ovarian responders (PORs). The aim of this study was to compare clinical outcomes and cumulus cell (CC) expression before and after DHEA treatment in PORs undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles. Six patients with poor ovarian response were enrolled in the study according to Bologna criteria. DHEA was supplied at least 2 months before patients entered into the next IVF cycle. Expression of apoptosis-related genes in CCs was determined by quantitative real-time PCR. Mitochondrial dehydrogenase activity of CCs was assessed by cell counting kit-8 assay. Metaphase II oocytes, maturation rate, embryos at Day 3, and fertilization rate significantly increased following DHEA treatment. Expression of cytochrome c, caspase 9, and caspase 3 genes in CCs were significantly reduced after DHEA therapy. Additionally, increased mitochondrial activity of CCs was observed following DHEA supplementation. DHEA supplementation may protect CCs via improved mitochondrial activity and decreased apoptosis, leading to better clinical outcomes in PORs.

  15. Microphysical imprint of entrainment in warm cumulus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer D. Small

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We analyse the cloud microphysical response to entrainment mixing in warm cumulus clouds observed from the CIRPAS Twin Otter during the GoMACCS field campaign near Houston, Texas, in summer 2006. Cloud drop size distributions and cloud liquid water contents from the Artium Flight phase-Doppler interferometer in conjunction with meteorological observations are used to investigate the degree to which inhomogeneous versus homogeneous mixing is preferred as a function of height above cloud base, distance from cloud edge and aerosol concentration. Using four complete days of data with 101 cloud penetrations (minimum 300 m in length, we find that inhomogeneous mixing primarily explains liquid water variability in these clouds. Furthermore, we show that there is a tendency for mixing to be more homogeneous towards the cloud top, which we attribute to the combination of increased turbulent kinetic energy and cloud drop size with altitude which together cause the Damköhler number to increase by a factor of between 10 and 30 from cloud base to cloud top. We also find that cloud edges appear to be air from cloud centres that have been diluted solely through inhomogeneous mixing. Theory predicts the potential for aerosol to affect mixing type via changes in drop size over the range of aerosol concentrations experienced (moderately polluted rural sites to highly polluted urban sites. However, the observations, while consistent with this hypothesis, do not show a statistically significant effect of aerosol on mixing type.

  16. IMPACTS OF CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION AND RESOLUTION ON THE MJO SIMULATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIA Xiao-long; LI Chong-yin; LING Jian

    2009-01-01

    Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO) in six integrations using an AGCM with different cumulus parameterization schemes and resolutions are examined to investigate their impacts on the MJO simulation.Results suggest that the MJO simulation can be affected by both resolution and cumulus parameterization,though the latter,which determines the fundamental ability of the AGCM in simulating the MJO and the characteristics of the simulated MJO,is more crucial than the former. Model resolution can substantially affect the simulated MJO in certain aspects. Increasing resolution cannot improve the simulated MJO substantially,but can significantly modulate the detailed character of the simulated MJO; meanwhile,the impacts of resolution are dependent on the cumulus parameterization,determining the basic features of the MJO. Changes in the resolution do not alter the nature of the simulated MJO but rather regulate the simulation itself,which is constrained by cumulus parameterization schemes. Theretbre,the vertical resolution needs to be increased simultaneously. The vertical profile of diabatic heating may be a crucial factor that is responsible for these different modeling results. To a large extent,it is determined by the cumulus parameterization scheme used.

  17. Advancing Models and Evaluation of Cumulus, Climate and Aerosol Interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gettelman, Andrew [University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-10-27

    This project was successfully able to meet its’ goals, but faced some serious challenges due to personnel issues. Nonetheless, it was largely successful. The Project Objectives were as follows: 1. Develop a unified representation of stratifom and cumulus cloud microphysics for NCAR/DOE global community models. 2. Examine the effects of aerosols on clouds and their impact on precipitation in stratiform and cumulus clouds. We will also explore the effects of clouds and precipitation on aerosols. 3. Test these new formulations using advanced evaluation techniques and observations and release

  18. Investigation of Aerosol Indirect Effects using a Cumulus Microphysics Parameterization in a Regional Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, Kyo-Sun; Fan, Jiwen; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ma, Po-Lun; Singh, Balwinder; Zhao, Chun; Zhang, Yang; Zhang, Guang; Song, Xiaoliang

    2014-01-29

    A new Zhang and McFarlane (ZM) cumulus scheme includes a two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization for convective clouds. This allows aerosol effects to be investigated more comprehensively by linking aerosols with microphysical processes in both stratiform clouds that are explicitly resolved and convective clouds that are parameterized in climate models. This new scheme is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is coupled with the physics and aerosol packages from the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). A test case of July 2008 during the East Asian summer monsoon is selected to evaluate the performance of the new ZM scheme and to investigate aerosol effects on monsoon precipitation. The precipitation and radiative fluxes simulated by the new ZM scheme show a better agreement with observations compared to simulations with the original ZM scheme that does not include convective cloud microphysics and aerosol convective cloud interactions. Detailed analysis suggests that an increase in detrained cloud water and ice mass by the new ZM scheme is responsible for this improvement. To investigate precipitation response to increased anthropogenic aerosols, a sensitivity experiment is performed that mimics a clean environment by reducing the primary aerosols and anthropogenic emissions to 30% of that used in the control simulation of a polluted environment. The simulated surface precipitation is reduced by 9.8% from clean to polluted environment and the reduction is less significant when microphysics processes are excluded from the cumulus clouds. Ensemble experiments with ten members under each condition (i.e., clean and polluted) indicate similar response of the monsoon precipitation to increasing aerosols.

  19. Fabrication of nanoelectrode ensembles by electrodepositon of Au nanoparticles on single-layer graphene oxide sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhijuan; Zhang, Juan; Yin, Zongyou; Wu, Shixin; Mandler, Daniel; Zhang, Hua

    2012-03-01

    Nanoelectrode ensembles (NEEs) have been fabricated by the electrodeposition of Au nanoparticles (AuNPs) on single-layer graphene oxide (GO) sheets coated on a glassy carbon electrode (GCE). The fabricated NEEs show a typical sigmoidal shaped voltammetric profile, arising from the low coverage density of AuNPs on GCE and large distance among them, which can be easily controlled by varying the electrodeposition time. As a proof of concept, after the probe HS-DNA is immobilized on the NEEs through the Au-S bonding, the target DNA is detected with the methylene blue intercalator. Our results show that the target DNA can be detected as low as 100 fM, i.e. 0.5 amol DNA in 5 μL solution.Nanoelectrode ensembles (NEEs) have been fabricated by the electrodeposition of Au nanoparticles (AuNPs) on single-layer graphene oxide (GO) sheets coated on a glassy carbon electrode (GCE). The fabricated NEEs show a typical sigmoidal shaped voltammetric profile, arising from the low coverage density of AuNPs on GCE and large distance among them, which can be easily controlled by varying the electrodeposition time. As a proof of concept, after the probe HS-DNA is immobilized on the NEEs through the Au-S bonding, the target DNA is detected with the methylene blue intercalator. Our results show that the target DNA can be detected as low as 100 fM, i.e. 0.5 amol DNA in 5 μL solution. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: The results of Raman, XPS, SEM and other electrochemical characterization are provided. See DOI: 10.1039/c2nr30142c

  20. Exploring ensemble visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phadke, Madhura N.; Pinto, Lifford; Alabi, Oluwafemi; Harter, Jonathan; Taylor, Russell M., II; Wu, Xunlei; Petersen, Hannah; Bass, Steffen A.; Healey, Christopher G.

    2012-01-01

    An ensemble is a collection of related datasets. Each dataset, or member, of an ensemble is normally large, multidimensional, and spatio-temporal. Ensembles are used extensively by scientists and mathematicians, for example, by executing a simulation repeatedly with slightly different input parameters and saving the results in an ensemble to see how parameter choices affect the simulation. To draw inferences from an ensemble, scientists need to compare data both within and between ensemble members. We propose two techniques to support ensemble exploration and comparison: a pairwise sequential animation method that visualizes locally neighboring members simultaneously, and a screen door tinting method that visualizes subsets of members using screen space subdivision. We demonstrate the capabilities of both techniques, first using synthetic data, then with simulation data of heavy ion collisions in high-energy physics. Results show that both techniques are capable of supporting meaningful comparisons of ensemble data.

  1. An ensemble formulation of PBL fluxes in a GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sud, Y. C.; Smith, W. E.

    1984-01-01

    An ensemble approach is applied to Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) calculations with the bulk Richardson number identified as the key parameter. An ensemble averaging calculation was carried out to rederive the bulk friction and heat transport coefficients for the mean condition. Two simulations are carried out and compared. Significant differences in PBL fluxes low level cloudiness, land surface roughness heights, and surface evaporation are noted between the modified and unmodified simulations. Modifications to the model were: (1) the relationship between actual and potential Effective Temperature (ET) to accord with Sud and Fennessy (1982); (2) maximum permissible instantaneous ET at any time is 1.5 mm per hr; (3) moisture distribution in low level cumulus convection to be consistent with no precipitation; (4) appearance of supersaturation clouds to be consistent with supersaturation condition at that level; (5) invoking a simple function for stomatal diffusion effect in the ET calculation.

  2. Performance of multi-physics ensembles in convective precipitation events over northeastern Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Ortega, E.; Lorenzana, J.; Merino, A.; Fernández-González, S.; López, L.; Sánchez, J. L.

    2017-07-01

    Convective precipitation with hail greatly affects southwestern Europe, causing major economic losses. The local character of this meteorological phenomenon is a serious obstacle to forecasting. Therefore, the development of reliable short-term forecasts constitutes an essential challenge to minimizing and managing risks. However, deterministic outcomes are affected by different uncertainty sources, such as physics parameterizations. This study examines the performance of different combinations of physics schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting model to describe the spatial distribution of precipitation in convective environments with hail falls. Two 30-member multi-physics ensembles, with two and three domains of maximum resolution 9 and 3km each, were designed using various combinations of cumulus, microphysics and radiation schemes. The experiment was evaluated for 10 convective precipitation days with hail over 2005-2010 in northeastern Spain. Different indexes were used to evaluate the ability of each ensemble member to capture the precipitation patterns, which were compared with observations of a rain-gauge network. A standardized metric was constructed to identify optimal performers. Results show interesting differences between the two ensembles. In two domain simulations, the selection of cumulus parameterizations was crucial, with the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme the best. In contrast, the Kain-Fristch cumulus scheme gave the poorest results, suggesting that it should not be used in the study area. Nevertheless, in three domain simulations, the cumulus schemes used in coarser domains were not critical and the best results depended mainly on microphysics schemes. The best performance was shown by Morrison, New Thomson and Goddard microphysics.

  3. Cumulus Cell Expansion, Its Role in Oocyte Biology and Perspectives of Measurement: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nevoral J.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Cumulus expansion of the cumulus-oocyte complex is necessary for meiotic maturation and acquiring developmental competence. Cumulus expansion is based on extracellular matrix synthesis by cumulus cells. Hyaluronic acid is the most abundant component of this extracellular matrix. Cumulus expansion takes place during meiotic oocyte maturation under in vivo and in vitro conditions. Quantification and measurement of cumulus expansion intensity is one possible method of determining oocyte quality and optimizing conditions for in vitro cultivation. Currently, subjective methods of expanded area and more exact cumulus expansion measurement by hyaluronic acid assessment are available. Among the methods of hyaluronic acid measurement is the use of radioactively labelled synthesis precursors. Alternatively, immunological and analytical methods, including enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA, spectrophotometry, and high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC in UV light, could be utilized. The high sensitivity of these methods could provide a precise analysis of cumulus expansion without the use of radioisotopes. Therefore, the aim of this review is to summarize and compare available approaches of cumulus expansion measurement, respecting special biological features of expanded cumuli, and to suggest possible solutions for exact cumulus expansion analysis.

  4. Making Tree Ensembles Interpretable

    OpenAIRE

    Hara, Satoshi; Hayashi, Kohei

    2016-01-01

    Tree ensembles, such as random forest and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance, whereas their interpretability is critically limited. In this paper, we propose a post processing method that improves the model interpretability of tree ensembles. After learning a complex tree ensembles in a standard way, we approximate it by a simpler model that is interpretable for human. To obtain the simpler model, we derive the EM algorithm minimizing the KL divergence from the ...

  5. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filter

    KAUST Repository

    Chernov, Alexey

    2016-01-06

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In terms of computational cost vs. approximation error the asymptotic performance of the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) is superior to the EnKF s.

  6. The Ensembl REST API: Ensembl Data for Any Language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Andrew; Beal, Kathryn; Keenan, Stephen; McLaren, William; Pignatelli, Miguel; Ritchie, Graham R S; Ruffier, Magali; Taylor, Kieron; Vullo, Alessandro; Flicek, Paul

    2015-01-01

    We present a Web service to access Ensembl data using Representational State Transfer (REST). The Ensembl REST server enables the easy retrieval of a wide range of Ensembl data by most programming languages, using standard formats such as JSON and FASTA while minimizing client work. We also introduce bindings to the popular Ensembl Variant Effect Predictor tool permitting large-scale programmatic variant analysis independent of any specific programming language. The Ensembl REST API can be accessed at http://rest.ensembl.org and source code is freely available under an Apache 2.0 license from http://github.com/Ensembl/ensembl-rest. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

  7. Shallow Cumulus Variability at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamer, K.; Kollias, P.; Ghate, V. P.; Luke, E. P.

    2016-12-01

    Cumulus clouds play a critical role in modulating the radiative and hydrological budget of the lower troposphere. These clouds, which are ubiquitous in regions of large-scale subsidence over the oceans, tend to be misrepresented in global climate models. Island-based, long-term, high-resolution ground-based observations can provide valuable insights on the factors controlling their macroscopic and microphysical properties and subsequenlty assist in model evaluation and guidance. Previous studies, limited to fair-weather cumuli over land, revealed that their fractional coverage is only weakly correlated with several parameters; the best ones being complex dynamical characteristics of the subcloud layer (vertical velocity skewness and eddy coherence). Other studies noted a relationship between cumuli depth and their propensity to precipitate. The current study will expand on such analysis by performing detail characterization of the full spectrum of shallow cumulus fields from non-precipitating to precipitating in the context of the large-scale forcing (i.e. thermodynamic structure and subsidence rates). Two years of ground-based remote sensing observations collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site are used to document macroscopic (cloud depth, cord length, cover), microphysical (liquid water path, cloud base rain rate) and dynamical (cloud base mass flux, eddy dissipation rate) cumuli properties. The observed variability in shallow cumulus is examined in relation to the variability of the large-scale environment as captured by the humidity profile, the magnitude of the low-level horizontal winds and near-surface aerosol conditions.

  8. Sensitivity of the Simulated Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation to Cumulus Parameterizations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIA Xiaolong; LI Chongyin

    2008-01-01

    The sensitivity of the simulated tropical intraseasonal oscillation or MJO (Madden and Julian oscilla tion)to different cumulus parameterizations is studied by using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM)-SAMIL(Spectral Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG).Results show that performance of the model in simulating the MJO alters widely when using two different cumulus parameterization schemes-the moist convective adjustment scheme(MCA)and the Zhang-McFarlane(ZM)scheme.MJO simulated by the MCA scheme was found to be more realistic than that simulated by the ZM scheme.MJO produced by the ZM scheme is too weak and shows little propagation characteristics.Weak moisture convergence at low levels simulated by the ZM scheme is not enough to maintain the structure and the eastward propagation of the oscillation.These two cumulus schemes produced different vertical structures of the heating profile.The heating profile produced by the ZM scheme is nearly uniform with height and the heating is too weak compared to that produced by the MCA,which maybe contributes greatly to the failure of simulating a reasonable MJO.Comparing the simulated MJO by these two schemes indicate that the MJO simulated by the GCM is highly sensitive to cumulus parameterizations implanted in.The diabatic heating profile plays an important role in the performance of the GCM.Three sensitivity experiments with different heating profiles are designed in which modified heating profiles peak respectively in the upper troposphere(UH), middle troposphere(MH),and lower troposphere(LH).Both the LH run and the MH run produce eastward propagating signals on the intraseasonal timescale,while it is interesting that the intraseasonal timescale signals produced by the UH run propagate westward.It indicates that a realistic intraseasonal oscillation is more prone to be excited when the maximum heating concentrates in the middle-low levels,especially in the middle levels,while westward propagating disturbances axe more

  9. Sensitivity of land surface and Cumulus schemes for Thunderstorm prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Dinesh; Mohanty, U. C.; Kumar, Krishan

    2016-06-01

    The cloud processes play an important role in all forms of precipitation. Its proper representation is one of the challenging tasks in mesoscale numerical simulation. Studies have revealed that mesoscale feature require proper initialization which may likely to improve the convective system rainfall forecasts. Understanding the precipitation process, model initial condition accuracy and resolved/sub grid-scale precipitation processes representation, are the important areas which needed to improve in order to represent the mesoscale features properly. Various attempts have been done in order to improve the model performance through grid resolution, physical parameterizations, etc. But it is the physical parameterizations which provide a convective atmosphere for the development and intensification of convective events. Further, physical parameterizations consist of cumulus convection, surface fluxes of heat, moisture, momentum, and vertical mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). How PBL and Cumulus schemes capture the evolution of thunderstorm have been analysed by taking thunderstorm cases occurred over Kolkata, India in the year 2011. PBL and cumulus schemes were customized for WSM-6 microphysics because WSM series has been widely used in operational forecast. Results have shown that KF (PBL scheme) and WSM-6 (Cumulus Scheme) have reproduced the evolution of surface variable such as CAPE, temperature and rainfall very much like observation. Further, KF and WSM-6 scheme also provided the increased moisture availability in the lower atmosphere which was taken to higher level by strong vertical velocities providing a platform to initiate a thunderstorm much better. Overestimation of rain in WSM-6 occurs primarily because of occurrence of melting and freezing process within a deeper layer in WSM-6 scheme. These Schemes have reproduced the spatial pattern and peak rainfall coverage closer to TRMM observation. It is the the combination of WSM-6, and KF schemes

  10. Vastaanottovirkailijan ergonomian tutkimus ja kehitys: Cumulus Hotel Lappeenranta

    OpenAIRE

    Kokkonen, Teemu

    2017-01-01

    Opinnäytetyön tavoitteena oli tutkia ja löytää hyviä ergonomiaratkaisuja Cumulus Hotel Lappeenrannan vastaanottoon ennen syksyllä 2017 alkavaa remonttia. Ergonomia tarkoittaa ihmisen ja työn yhteensovittamista. Sen tehtävä on tutkia ihmisen ja tekniikan sekä ympäristön vuorovaikutusta ja saada aikaan ihmiselle mieluisa ja toimiva toimintaympäristö työntekoa varten. Teoriaosuudessa käsitellään ergonomiaa käsitteenä ja avataan sen alalajeja fyysistä sekä kognitiivista ergonomiaa. Lisäksi e...

  11. Sensitivity of land surface and Cumulus schemes for Thunderstorm prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Kumar

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The cloud processes play an important role in all forms of precipitation. Its proper representation is one of the challenging tasks in mesoscale numerical simulation. Studies have revealed that mesoscale feature require proper initialization which may likely to improve the convective system rainfall forecasts. Understanding the precipitation process, model initial condition accuracy and resolved/sub grid-scale precipitation processes representation, are the important areas which needed to improve in order to represent the mesoscale features properly. Various attempts have been done in order to improve the model performance through grid resolution, physical parameterizations, etc. But it is the physical parameterizations which provide a convective atmosphere for the development and intensification of convective events. Further, physical parameterizations consist of cumulus convection, surface fluxes of heat, moisture, momentum, and vertical mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL. How PBL and Cumulus schemes capture the evolution of thunderstorm have been analysed by taking thunderstorm cases occurred over Kolkata, India in the year 2011. PBL and cumulus schemes were customized for WSM-6 microphysics because WSM series has been widely used in operational forecast. Results have shown that KF (PBL scheme and WSM-6 (Cumulus Scheme have reproduced the evolution of surface variable such as CAPE, temperature and rainfall very much like observation. Further, KF and WSM-6 scheme also provided the increased moisture availability in the lower atmosphere which was taken to higher level by strong vertical velocities providing a platform to initiate a thunderstorm much better. Overestimation of rain in WSM-6 occurs primarily because of occurrence of melting and freezing process within a deeper layer in WSM-6 scheme. These Schemes have reproduced the spatial pattern and peak rainfall coverage closer to TRMM observation. It is the the combination of WSM-6

  12. Quasireversible Process of Dopamine on Copper-Nickel Hydroxide Composite/Nitrogen Doped Graphene/Nafion Modified GCE and Its Electrochemical Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan-yin Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Cu-Ni(OH2/N-GR/Nafion/GCE has been prepared by electrodeposition and activation with NaOH. The proposed modified GCE was studied by electrochemical methods. It is found that dopamine shows favorable redox cyclic voltammetric response on the proposed modified GCE with peak separation of 25 mV and large current compared with on single-component modified GCE. The kinetic of electrode process has also been investigated with rate constant of 6.618 × 10−3 cm/s, which can be deduced to be a quasireversible or near-reversible process. The proposed method has been used for DA detection with linear range of 1.0 × 10−7 mol/L to 4.6 × 10−5 mol/L, and the detection limit is 3.3 × 10−8 mol/L. The proposed method has favorable stability and reproducibility and has also been used to determine DA in simulated samples and DA injections with favorable recoveries of 98.4% to 102.6%.

  13. Comparative Analyses of the Teaching Methods and Evaluation Practices in English Subject at Secondary School Certificate (SSC) and General Certificate of Education (GCE O-Level) in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behlol, Malik Ghulam; Anwar, Mohammad

    2011-01-01

    The study was conducted to compare the teaching methods and evaluation practices in English subject at secondary school certificate (SSC) and general certificate of education GCE-O-level in Pakistan. The population of the study was students, teachers and experts at SSC and 0-level in the Punjab province. Purposive and random sampling techniques…

  14. Cumulus-specific genes are transcriptionally silent following somatic cell nuclear transfer in a mouse model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    This study investigated whether four cumulus-specific genes: follicular stimulating hormone receptor (FSHr), hyaluronan synthase 2 (Has2), prostaglandin synthase 2 (Ptgs2) and steroidogenic acute regulator protein (Star), were correctly reprogrammed to be transcriptionally silent following somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) in a murine model. Cumulus cells of C57×CBA F1 female mouse were injected into enucleated oocytes, followed by activation in 10 μmol/L strontium chloride for 5 h and subsequent in vitro culture up to the blastocyst stage. Expression of cumulus-specific genes in SCNT-derived embryos at 2-cell, 4-cell and day 4.5 blastocyst stages was compared with corresponding in vivo fertilized embryos by real-time PCR. It was demonstrated that immediately after the first cell cycle, SCNT-derived 2-cell stage embryos did not express all four cumulus-specific genes, which continually remained silent at the 4-cell and blastocyst stages. It is therefore concluded that all four cumulus-specific genes were correctly reprogrammed to be silent following nuclear transfer with cumulus donor cells in the mouse model. This would imply that the poor preimplantation developmental competence of SCNT embryos derived from cumulus cells is due to incomplete reprogramming of other embryonic genes, rather than cumulus-specific genes.

  15. Mouse cumulus-denuded oocytes restore developmental capacity completely when matured with optimal supplementation of cysteamine, cystine, and cumulus cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ping; Wu, Yan-Guang; Wei, De-Li; Li, Qing; Wang, Gang; Zhang, Jie; Luo, Ming-Jiu; Tan, Jing-He

    2010-04-01

    Our objectives were to study how cysteamine, cystine, and cumulus cells (CCs), as well as oocytes interact to increase oocyte intracellular glutathione (GSH) and thereby to establish an efficient in vitro maturation system for cumulus-denuded oocytes (DOs). Using M16 that contained no thiol as maturation medium, we showed that when supplemented alone, neither cystine nor cysteamine promoted GSH synthesis of mouse DOs, but they did when used together. Although goat CCs required either cysteamine or cystine to promote GSH synthesis, mouse CCs required both. In the presence of cystine, goat CCs produced cysteine but mouse CCs did not. Cysteamine reduced cystine to cysteine in cell-free M16. When TCM-199 that contained 83 microM cystine was used as maturation medium, supplementation with cysteamine alone had no effect, but supplementation with 100 microM cysteamine and 200 microM cystine increased blastulation of DOs matured with CC coculture to a level as high as achieved in cumulus-surrounded oocytes (COCs). Similar numbers of young were produced after two-cell embryos from mouse COCs or CC-cocultured DOs matured with optimal thiol supplementation were transferred to pseudopregnant recipients. It is concluded that 1) mouse CCs can use neither cysteamine nor cystine to promote GSH synthesis, but goat CCs can use either one; 2) goat CCs promote mouse oocyte GSH synthesis by reducing cystine to cysteine, but how they use cysteamine requires further investigation; and 3) mouse DOs can use neither cystine nor cysteamine for GSH synthesis, but they restore developmental capacity completely when matured in the presence of optimum supplementation of cysteamine, cystine, and CCs.

  16. General features of certain RNA populations from gametes and cumulus cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payton, Rebecca R; Rispoli, Louisa A; Edwards, J Lannett

    2010-12-01

    Results described herein provide insight regarding certain features of gamete RNA and how they compare to cumulus cell RNA. In particular, 28S/18S rRNA ratio and size distribution of RNA molecules differed in total RNA from oocytes versus surrounding cumulus cells. Specifically, oocyte total RNA had a lower rRNA ratio and an increased abundance of smaller RNA sizes compared to RNA from surrounding cumulus. Extensive efforts demonstrated that observed differences were repeatable whether oocyte maturation occurred in vitro or in vivo, and were similar between the nuclear stages examined. Features of oocyte RNA were conserved across six mammalian species, yet differed from surrounding cumulus. Profiles of sperm RNA were also examined but had no discernible ribosomal RNA peaks and were conserved across four mammalian species. Because the oocyte and spermatozoon are highly specialized cells representing unique molecular entities required for proper embryo development, dissimilarities described herein likely represent real gamete versus cumulus RNA differences.

  17. Ensemble Data Mining Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oza, Nikunj C.

    2004-01-01

    Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve better prediction accuracy than any of the individual models could on their own. The basic goal when designing an ensemble is the same as when establishing a committee of people: each member of the committee should be as competent as possible, but the members should be complementary to one another. If the members are not complementary, Le., if they always agree, then the committee is unnecessary---any one member is sufficient. If the members are complementary, then when one or a few members make an error, the probability is high that the remaining members can correct this error. Research in ensemble methods has largely revolved around designing ensembles consisting of competent yet complementary models.

  18. Ensemble Data Mining Methods

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve...

  19. GCE Data Toolbox for MATLAB - a software framework for automating environmental data processing, quality control and documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldon, W.; Chamblee, J.; Cary, R. H.

    2013-12-01

    Environmental scientists are under increasing pressure from funding agencies and journal publishers to release quality-controlled data in a timely manner, as well as to produce comprehensive metadata for submitting data to long-term archives (e.g. DataONE, Dryad and BCO-DMO). At the same time, the volume of digital data that researchers collect and manage is increasing rapidly due to advances in high frequency electronic data collection from flux towers, instrumented moorings and sensor networks. However, few pre-built software tools are available to meet these data management needs, and those tools that do exist typically focus on part of the data management lifecycle or one class of data. The GCE Data Toolbox has proven to be both a generalized and effective software solution for environmental data management in the Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER). This open source MATLAB software library, developed by the Georgia Coastal Ecosystems LTER program, integrates metadata capture, creation and management with data processing, quality control and analysis to support the entire data lifecycle. Raw data can be imported directly from common data logger formats (e.g. SeaBird, Campbell Scientific, YSI, Hobo), as well as delimited text files, MATLAB files and relational database queries. Basic metadata are derived from the data source itself (e.g. parsed from file headers) and by value inspection, and then augmented using editable metadata templates containing boilerplate documentation, attribute descriptors, code definitions and quality control rules. Data and metadata content, quality control rules and qualifier flags are then managed together in a robust data structure that supports database functionality and ensures data validity throughout processing. A growing suite of metadata-aware editing, quality control, analysis and synthesis tools are provided with the software to support managing data using graphical forms and command-line functions, as well as

  20. Extended Ensemble Monte Carlo

    OpenAIRE

    Iba, Yukito

    2000-01-01

    ``Extended Ensemble Monte Carlo''is a generic term that indicates a set of algorithms which are now popular in a variety of fields in physics and statistical information processing. Exchange Monte Carlo (Metropolis-Coupled Chain, Parallel Tempering), Simulated Tempering (Expanded Ensemble Monte Carlo), and Multicanonical Monte Carlo (Adaptive Umbrella Sampling) are typical members of this family. Here we give a cross-disciplinary survey of these algorithms with special emphasis on the great f...

  1. Ensembl variation resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin-Garcia Pablo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The maturing field of genomics is rapidly increasing the number of sequenced genomes and producing more information from those previously sequenced. Much of this additional information is variation data derived from sampling multiple individuals of a given species with the goal of discovering new variants and characterising the population frequencies of the variants that are already known. These data have immense value for many studies, including those designed to understand evolution and connect genotype to phenotype. Maximising the utility of the data requires that it be stored in an accessible manner that facilitates the integration of variation data with other genome resources such as gene annotation and comparative genomics. Description The Ensembl project provides comprehensive and integrated variation resources for a wide variety of chordate genomes. This paper provides a detailed description of the sources of data and the methods for creating the Ensembl variation databases. It also explores the utility of the information by explaining the range of query options available, from using interactive web displays, to online data mining tools and connecting directly to the data servers programmatically. It gives a good overview of the variation resources and future plans for expanding the variation data within Ensembl. Conclusions Variation data is an important key to understanding the functional and phenotypic differences between individuals. The development of new sequencing and genotyping technologies is greatly increasing the amount of variation data known for almost all genomes. The Ensembl variation resources are integrated into the Ensembl genome browser and provide a comprehensive way to access this data in the context of a widely used genome bioinformatics system. All Ensembl data is freely available at http://www.ensembl.org and from the public MySQL database server at ensembldb.ensembl.org.

  2. BMP15 Prevents Cumulus Cell Apoptosis Through CCL2 and FBN1 in Porcine Ovaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Zhai

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Bone morphogenetic protein-15 (BMP15 is a maternal gene necessary for mammalian reproduction. BMP15 expression increased in oocytes accompanied by follicle growth and development. The function and regulation mechanism of BMP15 in porcine cumulus cell apoptosis process is still unclear now. Methods: In this study, flow cytometry (FCM was used to analyze the effects of BMP15 with different concentrations to cumulus cell apoptosis. High-throughput sequencing technology was carried out to screen regulatory genes linked closely with BMP15. In order to confirm the function of (MCP-1/CCL2 and FBN1 in cumulus cell apoptosis, RNA interference (RNAi method was used to inhibit the expression of (MCP-1/CCL2 and FBN1. Apoptosis and proliferation of cumulus cell treated with siRNA transfection technology were measured by FCM, 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide, quantitative real time-PCR (RT-qPCR and western blotting. Results: The results showed that the apoptosis levels of cumulus cell treated by BMP15 decreased significantly in a dose-dependent manner. The expression of related genes protein 1 (MCP-1/CCL2 and fibrillin1 (FBN1 were both regulated by BMP15. After transfection, the proliferation of porcine cumulus cells increased significantly and apoptosis of cumulus cells was prevented while FBN1 was silenced after BMP15 treatment. The proliferation of cumulus cells decreased significantly and apoptosis rate of cumulus cells increased significantly while CCL2 was silenced. Conclusion: The results obtained in this study firstly demonstrated that CCL2 and FBN1 are important regulatory factors of BMP15 in preventing cumulus cell apoptosis in porcine ovaries.

  3. Sources of cumulus expansion enabling factor (CEEF) in porcine follicles

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    It was shown that expansion of porcine cumulus did not depend on oocyte-secreted factor(s), and it is therefore presumed that porcine CEEF may not be produced exclusively by the oocyte. In this experiment, we used mouse oocytectomized complexes (OOX), which were incapable of CEEF production, to assess the secretion of CEEF by evacuated zona, oocytes of different quality and somatic cells in the porcine follicles. The results showed that: (ⅰ) Evacuated zonae from both porcine and mouse oocytes did not produce CEEF. (ⅱ) Porcine oocytes of A, B and C types from 3 - 6 mm follicles were not significantly different in both production and activity of CEEF. (ⅲ) Both porcine OOX from 3 - 6 mm follicles and granulose cells from < 1 mm follicles secreted CEEF in a large quantity, independent of gonadotropins; mural granulose cells from 3-6 mm follicles, however, produced neglectable amount of CEEF. (ⅳ) The follicular fluid from 3-6 mm porcine follicles contained CEEF activity that was concentration-dependent, and thus it enabled cumulus expansion in 60% mouse OOX when used at 10% of concentration, but the expansion rate of mouse OOX decreased to 9% when the concentration was increased to 50%. (ⅴ) Mouse OOX cultured in porcine CEEF-containing M199 expanded only in the presence of gonadotropins, suggesting that the activity of porcine CEEF is hormone-de- pendent.

  4. Local Ensemble Kalman Particle Filters for efficient data assimilation

    CERN Document Server

    Robert, Sylvain

    2016-01-01

    Ensemble methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are widely used for data assimilation in large-scale geophysical applications, as for example in numerical weather prediction (NWP). There is a growing interest for physical models with higher and higher resolution, which brings new challenges for data assimilation techniques because of the presence of non-linear and non-Gaussian features that are not adequately treated by the EnKF. We propose two new localized algorithms based on the Ensemble Kalman Particle Filter (EnKPF), a hybrid method combining the EnKF and the Particle Filter (PF) in a way that maintains scalability and sample diversity. Localization is a key element of the success of EnKFs in practice, but it is much more challenging to apply to PFs. The algorithms that we introduce in the present paper provide a compromise between the EnKF and the PF while avoiding some of the problems of localization for pure PFs. Numerical experiments with a simplified model of cumulus convection based on a...

  5. Interactions between oocytes and cumulus cells during in vitro maturation of porcine cumulus-oocyte complexes in a chemically defined medium: effect of denuded oocytes on cumulus expansion and oocyte maturation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appeltant, R; Somfai, T; Nakai, M; Bodó, S; Maes, D; Kikuchi, K; Van Soom, A

    2015-03-01

    The aim of the present study was to clarify interactions between oocytes and cumulus cells (CCs) on the level of cumulus expansion and oocyte maturation during IVM of cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs) in a chemically defined medium using a system that allows individual tracking of oocytes. Especially, the influence of oocyte-secreted factors was investigated by the aid of addition of denuded oocytes (DOs) as a possible approach to improve the IVM system. The basic maturation medium was porcine oocyte medium with addition of gonadotropins only during the first 20 hours of IVM. During IVM, COCs were kept fixed to the bottom of culture dish by adhesive Cell-Tak coating, which enabled individual tracking of COCs during IVM. Size changes in COCs during IVM were measured by digital image analysis. Cumulus expansion in a porcine oocyte medium of intact COCs increased in a typical manner until 20 hours and decreased in size subsequently until 48 hours of IVM (P  0.05) but did enhance cumulus expansion of oocytectomized complexes (P medium: carbenoxolone repressed the expansion of COCs at 20 hours of IVM. In conclusion, the porcine oocyte enhances cumulus expansion both by gap junctional communications and presumably by oocyte-secreted factor production. Nevertheless, the presence of oocytes is not a prerequisite for this process. In return, CCs maintain meiotic arrest in cumulus-enclosed oocytes during the initial culture through gap junctions. On the basis of these findings, future research could investigate if coculture with DOs during IVM is beneficial for fertilization and embryo development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. A charge-reversible nanocarrier using PEG-PLL (-g-Ce6, DMA)-PLA for photodynamic therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Chaemin; Sim, Taehoon; Hoang, Ngoc Ha; Jung, Chan Eun; Lee, Eun Seong; Youn, Yu Seok; Oh, Kyung Taek

    2017-01-01

    A polyelectrolyte nanoparticle composed of PEG-PLL(-g-Ce6, DMA)-PLA was developed for nanomedicinal application in photodynamic therapy. These nanoparticles formed stable aggregates through the hydrophobic interaction of poly(lactic acid) and demonstrated pH-dependent behaviors such as surface charge conversion and enhanced cellular uptake at acidic pH, resulting in improved phototoxicity. In vivo animal imaging revealed that the prepared PEG-PLL(-g-Ce6, DMA)-PLA nanoparticles effectively accumulated at the targeted tumor site through enhanced permeability and retention effects. Reversible surface charge for PEG-PLL (-g-Ce6, DMA)-PLA nanoparticles allows the nanoparticles to escape the immune system and concentrate on the tumor tissue. Tumor growth in the nude mice treated with the nanoparticles decreased significantly and the hydrophobic interaction in the poly(lactic acid) block could allow the incorporation of multiple drugs. Therefore, the PEG-PLL(-g-Ce6, DMA)-PLA nanoparticles could have considerable potential as a nanomedicinal platform for photodynamic therapy.

  7. The semantic similarity ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Ballatore

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Computational measures of semantic similarity between geographic terms provide valuable support across geographic information retrieval, data mining, and information integration. To date, a wide variety of approaches to geo-semantic similarity have been devised. A judgment of similarity is not intrinsically right or wrong, but obtains a certain degree of cognitive plausibility, depending on how closely it mimics human behavior. Thus selecting the most appropriate measure for a specific task is a significant challenge. To address this issue, we make an analogy between computational similarity measures and soliciting domain expert opinions, which incorporate a subjective set of beliefs, perceptions, hypotheses, and epistemic biases. Following this analogy, we define the semantic similarity ensemble (SSE as a composition of different similarity measures, acting as a panel of experts having to reach a decision on the semantic similarity of a set of geographic terms. The approach is evaluated in comparison to human judgments, and results indicate that an SSE performs better than the average of its parts. Although the best member tends to outperform the ensemble, all ensembles outperform the average performance of each ensemble's member. Hence, in contexts where the best measure is unknown, the ensemble provides a more cognitively plausible approach.

  8. Rhesus monkey cumulus cells revert to a mural granulosa cell state after an ovulatory stimulus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaffin, Charles L; Lee, Young S; VandeVoort, Catherine A; Patel, Bela G; Latham, Keith E

    2012-11-01

    Follicular somatic cells (mural granulosa cells and cumulus cells) and the oocyte communicate through paracrine interactions and through direct gap junctions between oocyte and cumulus cells. Considering that mural and cumulus cells arise through a common developmental pathway and that their differentiation is essential to reproductive success, understanding how these cells differ is a key aspect to understanding their critical functions. Changes in global gene expression before and after an ovulatory stimulus were compared between cumulus and mural granulosa cells to test the hypothesis that mural and cumulus cells are highly differentiated at the time of an ovulatory stimulus and further differentiate during the periovulatory interval. The transcriptomes of the two cell types were markedly different (>1500 genes) before an ovulatory hCG bolus but converged after ovulation to become completely overlapping. The predominant transition was for the cumulus cells to become more like mural cells after hCG. This indicates that the differentiated phenotype of the cumulus cell is not stable and irreversibly established but may rather be an ongoing physiological response to the oocyte.

  9. PTGS2 down-regulation in cumulus cells of infertile women with endometriosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Luz, Caroline M; da Broi, Michele G; Donabela, Flávia Cappello; Paro de Paz, Cláudia Cristina; Meola, Juliana; Navarro, Paula A

    2017-07-10

    A deleterious effect of endometriosis on oocyte quality has been proposed. Evidence suggests that cumulus cells could be used as indirect biomarkers of oocyte quality. The PTGS2 gene, which encodes cyclooxygenase 2 (COX-2), is deregulated in endometriotic lesions and plays a crucial role in the acquisition of oocyte competence. To date, research evaluating PTGS2 expression in cumulus cells of infertile patients with endometriosis has not been conducted. The aim this study was to compare the expression levels of PTGS2 in cumulus cells of infertile women, with and without endometriosis, undergoing ovarian stimulation for intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). Therefore, a case-control study compared PTGS2 gene expression in the cumulus cells of 38 infertile patients with endometriosis and 40 without, using real-time polymerase chain reaction. For the first time, decreased expression of PTGS2 was found in cumulus cells of infertile women with endometriosis compared with controls (7.2 ± 10.5 versus 12.4 ± 15.7), which might be related to reduced levels of COX-2 in the cumulus cells of women with the disease. Consequently, we hypothesize that lower transcript levels of PTGS2 in cumulus cells may be involved in the impairment of oocyte quality, suggesting a possible mechanism involved in disease-related infertility. Copyright © 2017 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Cloned calves produced by nuclear transfer from cultured cumulus cells

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    AN; Xiaorong(安晓荣); GOU; Kemian(苟克勉); ZHU; Shien(朱士恩); GUAN; Hong(关宏); HOU; Jian(侯健); LIN; Aixing(林爱星); ZENG; Shenming(曾申明); TIAN; Jianhui(田见辉); CHEN; Yongfu(陈永福)

    2002-01-01

    Short-term cultured cumulus cell lines (1-5BCC) derived from 5 individual cows were used in nuclear transfer (NT) and 1188 enucleated bovine oocytes matured in vitro were used as nuclear recipients. A total of 931 (78.4%) cloned embryos were reconstructed, of which 763 (82%) cleaved, 627 (67.3%) developed to 8-cell stage, and 275 (29.5%) reached blastocyst stage. The average cell number of blastocysts was 124±24.5 (n=20). In this study, the effects of donor cell sources, serum starvation of donor cells, time interval from fusion to activation (IFA) were also tested on cloning efficiency. These results showed that blastocyst rates of embryos reconstructed from 5 different individuals cells were significantly different among them (14.1%, 45.2%, 27.3%, 34.3%, vs 1.5%, P0.05); and that blastocyst rate (20.3%) of the group with fusion/activation interval of 2-3 h, was significantly lower than that of the 3-6 h groups (31.0%), while not significantly different among 3-4 h (P < 0.05), 4-5 h, and 5-6 h groups (P ≥ 0.05). Sixty-three thawed NT blastocysts were transferred to 31 recipient cows, of which 4 pregnancies were established and two cloned calves were given birth. These results indicate that serum starvation of cumulus cells is not a key factor for successful bovine cloning, while IFA treatment and sources of donor cells have effects on cloning efficiency.

  11. Protective Garment Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wakefield, M. E.

    1982-01-01

    Protective garment ensemble with internally-mounted environmental- control unit contains its own air supply. Alternatively, a remote-environmental control unit or an air line is attached at the umbilical quick disconnect. Unit uses liquid air that is vaporized to provide both breathing air and cooling. Totally enclosed garment protects against toxic substances.

  12. Music Ensemble: Course Proposal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovach, Brian

    A proposal is presented for a Music Ensemble course to be offered at the Community College of Philadelphia for music students who have had previous vocal or instrumental training. A standardized course proposal cover form is followed by a statement of purpose for the course, a list of major course goals, a course outline, and a bibliography. Next,…

  13. Neural Network Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Salamon, Peter

    1990-01-01

    We propose several means for improving the performance an training of neural networks for classification. We use crossvalidation as a tool for optimizing network parameters and architecture. We show further that the remaining generalization error can be reduced by invoking ensembles of similar...... networks....

  14. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Haakon

    2016-01-08

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a sequential filtering method that uses an ensemble of particle paths to estimate the means and covariances required by the Kalman filter by the use of sample moments, i.e., the Monte Carlo method. EnKF is often both robust and efficient, but its performance may suffer in settings where the computational cost of accurate simulations of particles is high. The multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) is an extension of classical Monte Carlo methods which by sampling stochastic realizations on a hierarchy of resolutions may reduce the computational cost of moment approximations by orders of magnitude. In this work we have combined the ideas of MLMC and EnKF to construct the multilevel ensemble Kalman filter (MLEnKF) for the setting of finite dimensional state and observation spaces. The main ideas of this method is to compute particle paths on a hierarchy of resolutions and to apply multilevel estimators on the ensemble hierarchy of particles to compute Kalman filter means and covariances. Theoretical results and a numerical study of the performance gains of MLEnKF over EnKF will be presented. Some ideas on the extension of MLEnKF to settings with infinite dimensional state spaces will also be presented.

  15. Observations of sulfur dioxide uptake and new particle formation in a midlatitude cumulus cloud

    OpenAIRE

    Peter, J. R.; S. T. Siems; Jensen, J.B.; Gras, J. L.; Ishizaka, Y.; Hacker, J. M.

    2006-01-01

    International audience; Airborne measurements, obtained during the Asian Aerosol Characterisation Experiment (ACE-Asia), of SO2 and condensation nuclei (CN) concentrations were made in the local environment of a cumulus cloud band. Conserved quantities, wet equivalent potential temperature ?q, and total water content Q, were used to identify the sources of air detrained on the downwind side of the cumulus band. It was found that ~65% of the detrained air originated from below cloud base and t...

  16. Mitochondrial dysfunction and apoptosis in cumulus cells of type I diabetic mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Wang

    Full Text Available Impaired oocyte quality has been demonstrated in diabetic mice; however, the potential pathways by which maternal diabetes exerts its effects on the oocyte are poorly understood. Cumulus cells are in direct contact with the oocyte via gap junctions and provide essential nutrients to support oocyte development. In this study, we investigated the effects of maternal diabetes on the mitochondrial status in cumulus cells. We found an increased frequency of fragmented mitochondria, a decreased transmembrane potential and an aggregated distribution of mitochondria in cumulus cells from diabetic mice. Furthermore, while mitochondrial biogenesis in cumulus cells was induced by maternal diabetes, their metabolic function was disrupted as evidenced by lower ATP and citrate levels. Moreover, we present evidence suggesting that the mitochondrial impairments induced by maternal diabetes, at least in part, lead to cumulus cell apoptosis through the release of cytochrome c. Together the deleterious effects on cumulus cells may disrupt trophic and signaling interactions with the oocyte, contributing to oocyte incompetence and thus poor pregnancy outcomes in diabetic females.

  17. Effect of Acrylamide on Oocyte Nuclear Maturation and Cumulus Cells Apoptosis in Mouse In Vitro.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuzhen Liu

    Full Text Available Acrylamide (ACR is a chemical compound with severe neurotoxicity, genotoxicity, carcinogenicity and reproductive toxicity. Recent studies showed that ACR impairs the function of reproductive organs, e.g., epididymis and testes. In vitro maturation of mouse oocyte is a sensitive assay to identify potential chemical hazard to female fertility. The aim of this study was to evaluate the adverse effects of ACR on the nuclear maturation and cumulus cells apoptosis of mouse oocytes in vitro. Cumulus-oocyte complexes were incubated in a maturation medium containing 0, 5, 10 and 20 μM of ACR. Chromosome alignment and spindle morphology of oocytes was determined by immunofluorescence and confocal microscopy. Our results showed that oocytes exposed to different doses of ACR in vitro were associated with a significant decrease of oocyte maturation, significant increase of chromosome misalignment rate, occurrence of abnormal spindle configurations, and the inhibition of oocyte parthenogenetic activation. Furthermore, apoptosis of cumulus cells was determined by TUNEL and CASPASE-3 assay. Results showed that apoptosis in cumulus cells was enhanced and the expression of CASPASE-3 was increased after cumulus-oocyte complexes were exposed to ACR. Therefore, ACR may affect the nuclear maturation of oocytes via the apoptosis of cumulus cells in vitro.

  18. Effective Visualization of Temporal Ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Lihua; Healey, Christopher G; Bass, Steffen A

    2016-01-01

    An ensemble is a collection of related datasets, called members, built from a series of runs of a simulation or an experiment. Ensembles are large, temporal, multidimensional, and multivariate, making them difficult to analyze. Another important challenge is visualizing ensembles that vary both in space and time. Initial visualization techniques displayed ensembles with a small number of members, or presented an overview of an entire ensemble, but without potentially important details. Recently, researchers have suggested combining these two directions, allowing users to choose subsets of members to visualization. This manual selection process places the burden on the user to identify which members to explore. We first introduce a static ensemble visualization system that automatically helps users locate interesting subsets of members to visualize. We next extend the system to support analysis and visualization of temporal ensembles. We employ 3D shape comparison, cluster tree visualization, and glyph based visualization to represent different levels of detail within an ensemble. This strategy is used to provide two approaches for temporal ensemble analysis: (1) segment based ensemble analysis, to capture important shape transition time-steps, clusters groups of similar members, and identify common shape changes over time across multiple members; and (2) time-step based ensemble analysis, which assumes ensemble members are aligned in time by combining similar shapes at common time-steps. Both approaches enable users to interactively visualize and analyze a temporal ensemble from different perspectives at different levels of detail. We demonstrate our techniques on an ensemble studying matter transition from hadronic gas to quark-gluon plasma during gold-on-gold particle collisions.

  19. Aerosol Impacts on the Growth of Cumulus Congestus Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, A. M.; van den Heever, S. C.; Saleeby, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    Tropical convection has been observed to contain three modes of convection, the middle mode of which is cumulus congestus clouds. This study investigates the impacts of aerosol, specifically those aerosols that can serve as cloud condensation nuclei, on the growth and development of congestus clouds observed within idealized cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations conducted under a state of radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). The model employed here is the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). RAMS CRM simulations were completed using a large two-dimensional domain (7200 km) at fine resolution (1 km) and long duration (100 days). Results indicate that congestus in more polluted conditions extend to greater heights more frequently than those developing in clean cases. Greater cloud water mass and ice mass forms in more polluted conditions, though ice forms at a fraction of the rate of the cloud mass. The importance of vapor diffusional growth of cloud droplets in the more polluted conditions is highlighted as one such process contributing to congestus development through latent heat release.

  20. Proteomics-based systems biology modeling of bovine germinal vesicle stage oocyte and cumulus cell interaction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Divyaswetha Peddinti

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Oocytes are the female gametes which establish the program of life after fertilization. Interactions between oocyte and the surrounding cumulus cells at germinal vesicle (GV stage are considered essential for proper maturation or 'programming' of oocytes, which is crucial for normal fertilization and embryonic development. However, despite its importance, little is known about the molecular events and pathways involved in this bidirectional communication. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used differential detergent fractionation multidimensional protein identification technology (DDF-Mud PIT on bovine GV oocyte and cumulus cells and identified 811 and 1247 proteins in GV oocyte and cumulus cells, respectively; 371 proteins were significantly differentially expressed between each cell type. Systems biology modeling, which included Gene Ontology (GO and canonical genetic pathway analysis, showed that cumulus cells have higher expression of proteins involved in cell communication, generation of precursor metabolites and energy, as well as transport than GV oocytes. Our data also suggests a hypothesis that oocytes may depend on the presence of cumulus cells to generate specific cellular signals to coordinate their growth and maturation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Systems biology modeling of bovine oocytes and cumulus cells in the context of GO and protein interaction networks identified the signaling pathways associated with the proteins involved in cell-to-cell signaling biological process that may have implications in oocyte competence and maturation. This first comprehensive systems biology modeling of bovine oocytes and cumulus cell proteomes not only provides a foundation for signaling and cell physiology at the GV stage of oocyte development, but are also valuable for comparative studies of other stages of oocyte development at the molecular level.

  1. Imprinting and recalling cortical ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo-Reid, Luis; Yang, Weijian; Bando, Yuki; Peterka, Darcy S; Yuste, Rafael

    2016-08-12

    Neuronal ensembles are coactive groups of neurons that may represent building blocks of cortical circuits. These ensembles could be formed by Hebbian plasticity, whereby synapses between coactive neurons are strengthened. Here we report that repetitive activation with two-photon optogenetics of neuronal populations from ensembles in the visual cortex of awake mice builds neuronal ensembles that recur spontaneously after being imprinted and do not disrupt preexisting ones. Moreover, imprinted ensembles can be recalled by single- cell stimulation and remain coactive on consecutive days. Our results demonstrate the persistent reconfiguration of cortical circuits by two-photon optogenetics into neuronal ensembles that can perform pattern completion. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  2. Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Hoel, Hakon

    2016-06-14

    This work embeds a multilevel Monte Carlo sampling strategy into the Monte Carlo step of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the setting of finite dimensional signal evolution and noisy discrete-time observations. The signal dynamics is assumed to be governed by a stochastic differential equation (SDE), and a hierarchy of time grids is introduced for multilevel numerical integration of that SDE. The resulting multilevel EnKF is proved to asymptotically outperform EnKF in terms of computational cost versus approximation accuracy. The theoretical results are illustrated numerically.

  3. Effect of oil overlay on inhibition potential of roscovitine in sheep cumulus-oocyte complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocomo, L F; Marques Filho, W C; Ulian, C M V; Branchini, N S; Silva, D T; Ackermann, C L; Landim-Alvarenga, F C; Bicudo, S D

    2015-06-01

    Inhibitors of cyclin-dependent kinases, as roscovitine, have been used to prevent the spontaneous resumption of meiosis in vitro and to improve the oocyte developmental competence. In this study, the interference of oil overlay on the reversible arrest capacity of roscovitine in sheep oocytes as well as its effects on cumulus expansion was evaluated. For this, cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs) were cultured for 20 h in TCM 199 with 10% foetal bovine serum (Control) containing 75 μm roscovitine (Rosco). Subsequently, they were in vitro matured (IVM) for further 18 h in inhibitor-free medium with LH and FSH. The culture was performed in Petri dishes under mineral oil (+) or in 96 well plates without oil overlay (-) at 38.5°C and 5% CO2 . At 20 and 38 h, the cumulus expansion and nuclear maturation were evaluated under stereomicroscope and by Hoechst 33342 staining, respectively. No group presented cumulus expansion at 20 h. After additional culture with gonadotrophins, a significant rate of COCs from both Control groups (+/-) exhibited total expansion while in both Rosco groups (+/-) the partial expansion prevailed. Among the oocytes treated with roscovitine, 65.2% were kept at GV in the absence of oil overlay while 40.6% of them reached MII under oil cover (p roscovitine without affecting the cumulus expansion rate or the subsequent meiosis progression. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  4. Analysis of cumulus solar irradiance reflectance (CSIR) events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laird, John L.; Harshvardhan

    Clouds are extremely important with regard to the transfer of solar radiation at Earth's surface. This study investigates Cumulus Solar Irradiance Reflection (CSIR) using ground-based pyranometers. CSIR events are short-term increases in solar radiation observed at the surface as a result of reflection off the sides of convective clouds. When Sun-cloud observer geometry is favorable, these occurrences produce characteristic spikes in the pyranometer traces and solar irradiance values may exceed expected clear-sky values. Ultraviolet CSIR events were investigated during the summer of 1995 using UVA and UVB pyranometers. Observed data were compared to clear-sky curves which were generated using a third degree polynomial best-fit line technique. Periods during which the observed data exceeded this clear-sky curve were identified as CSIR events. The magnitude of a CSIR event was determined by two different quantitative calculations. The MAC (magnitude above clear-sky) is an absolute measure of the difference between the observed and clear-sky irradiances. Maximum MAC values of 3.4 Win -2 and 0.0169 Wm -2 were observed at the UV-A and UV-B wavelengths, respectively. The second calculation determined the percentage above clear-sky (PAC) which indicated the relative magnitude of a CSIR event. Maximum UV-A and UV-B PAC magnitudes of 10.1% and 7.8%, respectively, were observed during the study. Also of interest was the duration of the CSIR events which is a function of Sun-cloud-sensor geometry and the speed of cloud propagation over the measuring site. In both the UV-A and UV-B wavelengths, significant CSIR durations of up to 30 minutes were observed. C 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

  5. Embryo quality predictive models based on cumulus cells gene expression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devjak R

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Since the introduction of in vitro fertilization (IVF in clinical practice of infertility treatment, the indicators for high quality embryos were investigated. Cumulus cells (CC have a specific gene expression profile according to the developmental potential of the oocyte they are surrounding, and therefore, specific gene expression could be used as a biomarker. The aim of our study was to combine more than one biomarker to observe improvement in prediction value of embryo development. In this study, 58 CC samples from 17 IVF patients were analyzed. This study was approved by the Republic of Slovenia National Medical Ethics Committee. Gene expression analysis [quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR] for five genes, analyzed according to embryo quality level, was performed. Two prediction models were tested for embryo quality prediction: a binary logistic and a decision tree model. As the main outcome, gene expression levels for five genes were taken and the area under the curve (AUC for two prediction models were calculated. Among tested genes, AMHR2 and LIF showed significant expression difference between high quality and low quality embryos. These two genes were used for the construction of two prediction models: the binary logistic model yielded an AUC of 0.72 ± 0.08 and the decision tree model yielded an AUC of 0.73 ± 0.03. Two different prediction models yielded similar predictive power to differentiate high and low quality embryos. In terms of eventual clinical decision making, the decision tree model resulted in easy-to-interpret rules that are highly applicable in clinical practice.

  6. Critical behavior in topological ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Bulycheva, K; Nechaev, S

    2014-01-01

    We consider the relation between three physical problems: 2D directed lattice random walks in an external magnetic field, ensembles of torus knots, and 5d Abelian SUSY gauge theory with massless hypermultiplet in $\\Omega$ background. All these systems exhibit the critical behavior typical for the "area+length" statistics of grand ensembles of 2D directed paths. In particular, using the combinatorial description, we have found the new critical behavior in the ensembles of the torus knots and in the instanton ensemble in 5d gauge theory. The relation with the integrable model is discussed.

  7. Improvement and implementation of a parameterization for shallow cumulus in the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isotta, Francesco; Spichtinger, Peter; Lohmann, Ulrike; von Salzen, Knut

    2010-05-01

    Convection is a crucial component of weather and climate. Its parameterization in General Circulation Models (GCMs) is one of the largest sources of uncertainty. Convection redistributes moisture and heat, affects the radiation budget and transports tracers from the PBL to higher levels. Shallow convection is very common over the globe, in particular over the oceans in the trade wind regions. A recently developed shallow convection scheme by von Salzen and McFarlane (2002) is implemented in the ECHAM5-HAM GCM instead of the standard convection scheme by Tiedtke (1989). The scheme of von Salzen and McFarlane (2002) is a bulk parameterization for an ensemble of transient shallow cumuli. A life cycle is considered, as well as inhomogeneities in the horizontal distribution of in-cloud properties due to mixing. The shallow convection scheme is further developed to take the ice phase and precipitation in form of rain and snow into account. The double moment microphysics scheme for cloud droplets and ice crystals implemented is consistent with the stratiform scheme and with the other types of convective clouds. The ice phase permits to alter the criterion to distinguish between shallow convection and the other two types of convection, namely deep and mid-level, which are still calculated by the Tiedtke (1989) scheme. The lunching layer of the test parcel in the shallow convection scheme is chosen as the one with maximum moist static energy in the three lowest levels. The latter is modified to the ``frozen moist static energy'' to account for the ice phase. Moreover, tracers (e.g. aerosols) are transported in the updraft and scavenged in and below clouds. As a first test of the performance of the new scheme and the interaction with the rest of the model, the Barbados Oceanographic and Meteorological EXperiment (BOMEX) and the Rain In Cumulus over the Ocean experiment (RICO) case are simulated with the single column model (SCM) and the results are compared with large eddy

  8. Contributions to the implementation of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization in the GLA GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sud, Y. C.; Chao, Winston C.; Walker, G. K.

    1991-01-01

    The roles of the Critical Cloud Work Function (CCWF) data set and the upper and lower bounds on entrainment by cumulus plumes in the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization (ASCP) in the GLA GCM (Geller et al., 1988) were investigated in two sets of experiments. It was found that the horizontal and vertical distribution of cumulus heating can be altered in ASCP by adjusting these parameters. These changes can have a strong influence on the vertical structure of condensation heating, water vapor distribution, temperature, and rainfall. The CCWF is an important limiting parameter that controls the onset of different cloud types; increasing the threshold values of CCWF for all clouds tends to concentrate the rainfall into a narrower ITCZ and affects the rainfall during the initial adjustment period.

  9. Anti-Müllerian hormone remains highly expressed in human cumulus cells during the final stages of folliculogenesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grøndahl, M L; Nielsen, M Eilsø; Dal Canto, M B

    2011-01-01

    , AMH receptor 2, FSH receptor, aromatase and androgen receptor were performed in CC in IVM patients where cumulus-oocyte-complex had expanded, CC in IVM patients where cumulus-oocyte-complex remained compacted, GC from immature follicles and CC and GC from IVF patients. Microarray data on corresponding...

  10. Time course of the meiotic arrest in sheep cumulus-oocyte complexes treated with roscovitine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocomo, Letícia Ferrari; Marques Filho, Wolff Camargo; Ackermann, Camila Louise; Paschoal, Daniela Martins; Guastali, Midyan Daroz; Dias Maziero, Rosiára Rosária; Sudano, Mateus José; Landim-Alvarenga, Fernanda da Cruz; Bicudo, Sony Dimas

    2016-04-01

    Temporary meiosis arrest with cyclin-dependent kinases inhibitors has been proposed in order to improve the quality of in vitro matured oocytes. In sheep, however, this phenomenon has been rarely investigated. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the effect of different incubation times with roscovitine on nuclear maturation and cumulus cell expansion of sheep cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs). For this, COCs were cultured for 0, 6, 12 or 20 h in basic maturation medium (Control) containing 75 μM roscovitine (Rosco). After, they were in vitro matured (IVM) for 18 h in the presence of luteinizing hormone (LH) and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH). At the end of each treatment, cumulus cell expansion and nuclear maturation were assessed under a stereomicroscope and by Hoechst 33342 staining, respectively. In the Control and Rosco groups, the absence of cumulus cell expansion prevailed at 0, 6, 12 and 20 h. After IVM for 18 h, total cumulus cell expansion in the Rosco treatments was dependent on the exposure time to roscovitine. A significantly high percentage of oocytes treated with roscovitine for 6 h (87%), 12 h or 20 h (65%) were arrested at the germinal vesicle (GV) stage. In contrast, 23% GVBD, 54% metaphase I (MI) and 61% MII oocytes were observed in the Control groups at 6, 12 and 20 h, respectively. In all treatments, a significant percentage of oocytes reached MII after IVM for 18 h. Therefore, roscovitine reversibly arrested the meiosis of sheep oocytes during different culture times with the maximal efficiency of meiotic inhibition reached at 6 h. In addition, reversibility of its inhibitory action on cumulus cells was exposure-time dependent.

  11. ESPC Coupled Global Ensemble Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    coupled system infrastructure and forecasting capabilities. Initial operational capability is targeted for 2018. APPROACH 1. It is recognized...provided will be the probability distribution function (PDF) of environmental conditions. It is expected that this distribution will have skill. To...system would be the initial capability for ensemble forecasts . Extensions to fully coupled ensembles would be the next step. 2. Develop an extended

  12. Botnet analysis using ensemble classifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anchit Bijalwan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the botnet traffic using Ensemble of classifier algorithm to find out bot evidence. We used ISCX dataset for training and testing purpose. We extracted the features of both training and testing datasets. After extracting the features of this dataset, we bifurcated these features into two classes, normal traffic and botnet traffic and provide labelling. Thereafter using modern data mining tool, we have applied ensemble of classifier algorithm. Our experimental results show that the performance for finding bot evidence using ensemble of classifiers is better than single classifier. Ensemble based classifiers perform better than single classifier by either combining powers of multiple algorithms or introducing diversification to the same classifier by varying input in bot analysis. Our results are showing that by using voting method of ensemble based classifier accuracy is increased up to 96.41% from 93.37%.

  13. Effects of Horizontal Resolution on Cumulus Cloud Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsey, L.; Randall, D. A.; Dazlich, D.

    2012-12-01

    The horizontal resolution of cumulus cloud simulations not only affects the computational cost of running a cloud resolving model (CRM), but it affects the results of the model as well. It is necessary to find the coarsest resolution that can be used without compromising the accuracy of the results. This study was carried out using the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM), a three-dimensional cloud resolving model. The forcing data used for the model came from two different field campaigns, the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) at the Southern Great Plains site. GATE took place during the summer of 1974 over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The ARM field campaign took place during the summer of 1997. A constant large scale forcing was applied to the temperature and moisture fields for the GATE case. The model was run until the atmospheric water content stabilized. With the ARM forcing data, a diurnal cycle of solar insolation was applied. The model was run until the soil moisture adjusted. For both GATE and ARM, a 20-day period was analyzed. The effects of horizontal grid spacing on rainfall rates, updraft and downdraft velocities, and cloud cover are presented in this study. Grid spacings of 8 km, 4 km, 2 km, and 500 m were studied for the GATE runs, and 4 km, 2 km, 1 km, and 500 m were studied for the ARM runs. For the GATE runs, resolution does not have a great impact on rainfall rates. A more radical effect is seen on updrafts and downdrafts, which intensify with higher resolutions. The overall cloud cover for the GATE runs decrease with increased resolution. The ARM runs are more sensitive to horizontal resolution than the GATE runs. Domain averaged rainfall rates decrease with increased resolution. Local rainfall rates, on the contrary, increase with increased resolution. In the ARM runs updrafts and downdrafts intensify with increased resolution. Cloud cover decreases with increased resolution. Grid

  14. On Ensemble Nonlinear Kalman Filtering with Symmetric Analysis Ensembles

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong

    2010-09-19

    The ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) [1, 2, 3, 4] is a popular method for data assimilation in high dimensional systems (e.g., geophysics models). Essentially the EnSRF is a Monte Carlo implementation of the conventional Kalman filter (KF) [5, 6]. It is mainly different from the KF at the prediction steps, where it is some ensembles, rather then the means and covariance matrices, of the system state that are propagated forward. In doing this, the EnSRF is computationally more efficient than the KF, since propagating a covariance matrix forward in high dimensional systems is prohibitively expensive. In addition, the EnSRF is also very convenient in implementation. By propagating the ensembles of the system state, the EnSRF can be directly applied to nonlinear systems without any change in comparison to the assimilation procedures in linear systems. However, by adopting the Monte Carlo method, the EnSRF also incurs certain sampling errors. One way to alleviate this problem is to introduce certain symmetry to the ensembles, which can reduce the sampling errors and spurious modes in evaluation of the means and covariances of the ensembles [7]. In this contribution, we present two methods to produce symmetric ensembles. One is based on the unscented transform [8, 9], which leads to the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) [8, 9] and its variant, the ensemble unscented Kalman filter (EnUKF) [7]. The other is based on Stirling’s interpolation formula (SIF), which results in the divided difference filter (DDF) [10]. Here we propose a simplified divided difference filter (sDDF) in the context of ensemble filtering. The similarity and difference between the sDDF and the EnUKF will be discussed. Numerical experiments will also be conducted to investigate the performance of the sDDF and the EnUKF, and compare them to a well‐established EnSRF, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) [2].

  15. Supplementation with cumulus cell masses improves the in vitro meiotic competence of porcine cumulus-oocytes complexes derived from small follicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsunaga, R; Funahashi, H

    2017-03-30

    The present study was conducted to examine the supplemented effect of cumulus cell masses (CCMs) derived from middle follicle (MF; 3-6 mm diameter) on the morphology and the meiotic or developmental competence of oocytes from small follicles (SF; 1-2 mm diameter). The number of cumulus cells surrounding oocytes just after collection was also lower in cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs) from SF than MF. The ooplasmic diameter of oocytes was significantly smaller in SF-derived oocytes than MF-derived ones before and after in vitro maturation (IVM), whereas the diameter significantly increased during the culture. Co-culture of SF-derived COCs with MF-derived CCMs during IVM significantly improved the meiotic competence of the oocytes to the metaphase-II stage. Furthermore, the ooplasmic diameter of SF-derived COCs during IVM was increased to the similar size of MF-derived those in the presence of MF-derived CCMs. The abilities of oocytes to be penetrated, to form male pronuclear formation and to cleave or develop to the blastocyst stage were not affected by the co-culture with CCMs. Electrophoretic analysis of CCM secretions clearly showed the presence of more protein(s) approximately 27.6 kDa in the conditioned medium when supplemented with MF-derived CCMs. In conclusion, we demonstrate that supplementation with MF-derived CCMs improves the ooplasmic diameter and meiotic competence of SF-derived oocytes.

  16. The performance of different cumulus parameterization schemes in simulating the 2006/2007 southern peninsular Malaysia heavy rainfall episodes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Wan Ahmad Ardie; Khai Shen Sow; Fredolin T Tangang; Abdul Ghapor Hussin; Mastura Mahmud; Liew Juneng

    2012-04-01

    The performance of four different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPS) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for simulating three heavy rainfall episodes over the southern peninsular Malaysia during the winter monsoon of 2006/2007 were examined. The modelled rainfall was compared with the 3-hourly satellite observation and objectively scored using a verification technique called the acuity–fidelity. The technique is based on minimization of a cost function that is calculated from four parameters taking into account errors in distance, time, intensity, and missed events. All simulations were made for 72 hours for the three episodes starting at 1200 UTC 17 December 2006, 1200 UTC 24 December 2006 and 1200 UTC 11 January 2007, respectively. The four different CPSs used are the new Kain–Fritsch scheme (KF2), the Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme (BMJ), the Grell–Devenyi ensemble scheme (GD) and the older Kain–Fritsch scheme (KF1). While the BMJ scheme shows some success in the second and third episodes, it shows high location errors in the first episode, leading to high acuity errors. The GD, KF2 and KF1 schemes performed poorly, although both the BMJ and GD schemes simulated the observed drastic increase of rainfall at 2100 UTC 18 December 2006 during the first episode. Overall, the KF1 and KF2 schemes produced positive biases in terms of coverage, while the GD scheme showed persistent location bias, producing a scattered line of precipitation over the eastern coastline of peninsular Malaysia. Although the BMJ scheme has better results, its poor performance for the first episode suggests that suitability of CPS may be case dependent.

  17. The atmospheric component of the Mediterranean Sea water budget in a WRF multi-physics ensemble and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Luca, Alejandro; Flaounas, Emmanouil; Drobinski, Philippe; Brossier, Cindy Lebeaupin

    2014-11-01

    The use of high resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled regional climate models to study possible future climate changes in the Mediterranean Sea requires an accurate simulation of the atmospheric component of the water budget (i.e., evaporation, precipitation and runoff). A specific configuration of the version 3.1 of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) regional climate model was shown to systematically overestimate the Mediterranean Sea water budget mainly due to an excess of evaporation (~1,450 mm yr-1) compared with observed estimations (~1,150 mm yr-1). In this article, a 70-member multi-physics ensemble is used to try to understand the relative importance of various sub-grid scale processes in the Mediterranean Sea water budget and to evaluate its representation by comparing simulated results with observed-based estimates. The physics ensemble was constructed by performing 70 1-year long simulations using version 3.3 of the WRF model by combining six cumulus, four surface/planetary boundary layer and three radiation schemes. Results show that evaporation variability across the multi-physics ensemble (˜10 % of the mean evaporation) is dominated by the choice of the surface layer scheme that explains more than ˜70 % of the total variance and that the overestimation of evaporation in WRF simulations is generally related with an overestimation of surface exchange coefficients due to too large values of the surface roughness parameter and/or the simulation of too unstable surface conditions. Although the influence of radiation schemes on evaporation variability is small (˜13 % of the total variance), radiation schemes strongly influence exchange coefficients and vertical humidity gradients near the surface due to modifications of temperature lapse rates. The precipitation variability across the physics ensemble (˜35 % of the mean precipitation) is dominated by the choice of both cumulus (˜55 % of the total variance) and planetary boundary layer (˜32 % of

  18. Effect of Acrylamide on Oocyte Nuclear Maturation and Cumulus Cells Apoptosis in Mouse In Vitro

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuzhen; Jiang, Ligang; Zhong, Tao; Kong, Shuhui; Zheng, Rongbin; Kong, Fengyun; Zhang, Cong; Zhang, Lei; An, Liguo

    2015-01-01

    Acrylamide (ACR) is a chemical compound with severe neurotoxicity, genotoxicity, carcinogenicity and reproductive toxicity. Recent studies showed that ACR impairs the function of reproductive organs, e.g., epididymis and testes. In vitro maturation of mouse oocyte is a sensitive assay to identify potential chemical hazard to female fertility. The aim of this study was to evaluate the adverse effects of ACR on the nuclear maturation and cumulus cells apoptosis of mouse oocytes in vitro. Cumulus–oocyte complexes were incubated in a maturation medium containing 0, 5, 10 and 20 μM of ACR. Chromosome alignment and spindle morphology of oocytes was determined by immunofluorescence and confocal microscopy. Our results showed that oocytes exposed to different doses of ACR in vitro were associated with a significant decrease of oocyte maturation, significant increase of chromosome misalignment rate, occurrence of abnormal spindle configurations, and the inhibition of oocyte parthenogenetic activation. Furthermore, apoptosis of cumulus cells was determined by TUNEL and CASPASE-3 assay. Results showed that apoptosis in cumulus cells was enhanced and the expression of CASPASE-3 was increased after cumulus–oocyte complexes were exposed to ACR. Therefore, ACR may affect the nuclear maturation of oocytes via the apoptosis of cumulus cells in vitro. PMID:26275143

  19. Effects of Mitochondrial Uncoupling Protein 2 Inhibition by Genipin in Human Cumulus Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongshan Ge

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available UCP2 plays a physiological role by regulating mitochondrial biogenesis, maintaining energy balance, ROS elimination, and regulating cellular autophagy in numerous tissues. But the exact roles of UCP2 in cumulus cells are still not clear. Genipin, a special UCP2 inhibitor, was added into the cultural medium to explore the roles of UCP2 in human cumulus cells. There were no significant differences in ATP and mitochondrial membrane potential levels in cumulus cells from UCP2 inhibiting groups as compared with the control. The levels of ROS and Mn-SOD were markedly elevated after UCP2 inhibited Genipin. However, the ratio of reduced GSH to GSSG significantly declined after treatment with Genipin. UCP2 inhibition by Genipin also resulted in obvious increase in the active caspase-3, which accompanied the decline of caspase-3 mRNA. The level of progesterone in culture medium declined obviously after Genipin treatment. But there was no significant difference in estradiol concentrations. This study indicated that UCP2 is expressed in human cumulus cells and plays important roles on mediate ROS production, apoptotic process, and steroidogenesis, suggesting UCP2 may be involved in regulation of follicle development and oocyte maturation and quality.

  20. An evaluation of mass flux closures for diurnal cycles of shallow cumulus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neggers, R.A.J.; Siebesma, A.P.; Lenderink, G.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2004-01-01

    Three closure methods for the mass flux at cloud base in shallow cumulus convection are critically examined for the difficult case of a diurnal cycle over land. The closure methods are first evaluated against large-eddy simulations (LESs) by diagnosing all parameters appearing in the closure equatio

  1. Impacts of different cumulus physics over south Asia region with case study tropical cyclone Viyaru

    CERN Document Server

    Fahad, Abdullah Al

    2015-01-01

    Tropical Cyclone Viyaru, formerly known as Cyclonic Storm Mahasen was a rapidly intensifying, category 01B storm that made landfall in Chittagong, Bangladesh on the 16th of May, 2013. In this study, the sensitivity of numerical simulations of tropical cyclone to cumulus physics parametrization is carried out with a view to determine the best cumulus physics option for prediction of the cyclones track, timing, and central pressure evolution in the Bay of Bengal. For this purpose, the tropical cyclone Viyaru has been simulated by WRF ARW in a nested domain with NCEP Global Final Analysis(FNL) data as initial and boundary conditions. The model domain consists of one parent domain and one nested domain. The resolution of the parent domain is 36 km while the nested domain has a resolution of 12 km. Five numerical simulations have been done with the same micro-physics scheme (WSM3), planetary boundary layer scheme,NOAH land surface scheme but different Cumulus Parametrization scheme. Four cumulus Parametrization sc...

  2. Ensemble manifold regularization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Bo; Tao, Dacheng; Xu, Chao; Yang, Linjun; Hua, Xian-Sheng

    2012-06-01

    We propose an automatic approximation of the intrinsic manifold for general semi-supervised learning (SSL) problems. Unfortunately, it is not trivial to define an optimization function to obtain optimal hyperparameters. Usually, cross validation is applied, but it does not necessarily scale up. Other problems derive from the suboptimality incurred by discrete grid search and the overfitting. Therefore, we develop an ensemble manifold regularization (EMR) framework to approximate the intrinsic manifold by combining several initial guesses. Algorithmically, we designed EMR carefully so it 1) learns both the composite manifold and the semi-supervised learner jointly, 2) is fully automatic for learning the intrinsic manifold hyperparameters implicitly, 3) is conditionally optimal for intrinsic manifold approximation under a mild and reasonable assumption, and 4) is scalable for a large number of candidate manifold hyperparameters, from both time and space perspectives. Furthermore, we prove the convergence property of EMR to the deterministic matrix at rate root-n. Extensive experiments over both synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

  3. Estrogen Promotes the Development of Mouse Cumulus Cells in Coordination with Oocyte-Derived GDF9 and BMP15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiura, Koji; Su, You-Qiang; Li, Qinglei; Wigglesworth, Karen; Matzuk, Martin M.; Eppig, John J.

    2010-01-01

    The differentiation and function of cumulus cells depend upon oocyte-derived paracrine factors, but studies on the estrogen receptor knockout mice suggested that estrogen also participates in these processes. This study investigates the possible coordination of estrogen and oocytes in the development and function of cumulus cells using cumulus expansion and the expression of transcripts required for expansion as functional endpoints. Preantral granulosa cell-oocyte complexes developed in vitro with 17β-estradiol (E2) exhibited increased levels of cumulus expansion and Has2 transcripts, encoding hyaluronan synthase 2, compared with those developed without E2. Moreover, cumulus cell-oocyte complexes (COCs) isolated from antral follicles and maintained in culture without E2 exhibited reduced cumulus expansion and Has2 mRNA levels compared with freshly isolated COCs. Exogenous E2, provided during the maintenance culture, alleviated these deficiencies. However, when oocytes were removed from COCs, E2 supplementation did not maintain competence to undergo expansion; the presence in culture of either fully grown oocytes or recombinant growth differentiation factor 9 (GDF9) was required. Recombinant bone morphogenetic protein 15, but not fibroblast growth factor 8, augmented the GDF9 effect. Oocytes or GDF9 suppressed cumulus cell levels of Nrip1 transcripts encoding nuclear receptor-interacting protein 1, a potential inhibitor of estrogen receptor signals. Therefore, E2 and oocyte-derived paracrine factors GDF9 and bone morphogenetic protein 15 coordinate to promote the development of cumulus cells and maintain their competence to undergo expansion. Furthermore, suppression of Nrip1 expression in cumulus cells by oocyte may be one mechanism mediating cross talk between oocyte and E2 signals that promotes follicular development. PMID:21047911

  4. Diurnal Ensemble Surface Meteorology Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Excel file containing diurnal ensemble statistics of 2-m temperature, 2-m mixing ratio and 10-m wind speed. This Excel file contains figures for Figure 2 in the...

  5. PSO-Ensemble Demo Application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2004-01-01

    Within the framework of the PSO-Ensemble project (FU2101) a demo application has been created. The application use ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Two instances of the application are running; one for Nysted Offshore and one for the total production (except Horns Rev) in the Eltra area. The output...... is available via two password-protected web-pages hosted at IMM and is used daily by Elsam and E2....

  6. Similarity measures for protein ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    Analyses of similarities and changes in protein conformation can provide important information regarding protein function and evolution. Many scores, including the commonly used root mean square deviation, have therefore been developed to quantify the similarities of different protein conformations...... a synthetic example from molecular dynamics simulations. We then apply the algorithms to revisit the problem of ensemble averaging during structure determination of proteins, and find that an ensemble refinement method is able to recover the correct distribution of conformations better than standard single...

  7. PSO-Ensemble Demo Application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2004-01-01

    Within the framework of the PSO-Ensemble project (FU2101) a demo application has been created. The application use ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Two instances of the application are running; one for Nysted Offshore and one for the total production (except Horns Rev) in the Eltra area. The output is a...... is available via two password-protected web-pages hosted at IMM and is used daily by Elsam and E2....

  8. Dynamical downscaling of regional climate over eastern China using RSM with multiple physics scheme ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peishu, Zong; Jianping, Tang; Shuyu, Wang; Lingyun, Xie; Jianwei, Yu; Yunqian, Zhu; Xiaorui, Niu; Chao, Li

    2017-08-01

    The parameterization of physical processes is one of the critical elements to properly simulate the regional climate over eastern China. It is essential to conduct detailed analyses on the effect of physical parameterization schemes on regional climate simulation, to provide more reliable regional climate change information. In this paper, we evaluate the 25-year (1983-2007) summer monsoon climate characteristics of precipitation and surface air temperature by using the regional spectral model (RSM) with different physical schemes. The ensemble results using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method are also assessed. The result shows that the RSM model has the capacity to reproduce the spatial patterns, the variations, and the temporal tendency of surface air temperature and precipitation over eastern China. And it tends to predict better climatology characteristics over the Yangtze River basin and the South China. The impact of different physical schemes on RSM simulations is also investigated. Generally, the CLD3 cloud water prediction scheme tends to produce larger precipitation because of its overestimation of the low-level moisture. The systematic biases derived from the KF2 cumulus scheme are larger than those from the RAS scheme. The scale-selective bias correction (SSBC) method improves the simulation of the temporal and spatial characteristics of surface air temperature and precipitation and advances the circulation simulation capacity. The REA ensemble results show significant improvement in simulating temperature and precipitation distribution, which have much higher correlation coefficient and lower root mean square error. The REA result of selected experiments is better than that of nonselected experiments, indicating the necessity of choosing better ensemble samples for ensemble.

  9. Aerosol and Trace Gas Processing by Clouds During the Cumulus Humilis Aerosol Processing Study (CHAPS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, X.; Berg, L.; Berkowitz, C.; Alexander, L.; Lee, Y.; Ogren, J.; Andrews, B.

    2008-12-01

    Clouds play an active role in the processing and cycling of atmospheric constituents. Gases and particles can partition to cloud droplets by absorption and condensation as well as activation and pact scavenging. The Cumulus Humilis Aerosol Processing Study (CHAPS) aimed at characterizing freshly emitted aerosols above, within and below fields of cumulus humilis (or fair-weather cumulus) in the vicinity of Oklahoma City. The experiment took place in June 2007. Evolution of aerosol and cloud properties downwind of the Oklahoma City is of particular interest in this project. These observations of a mid-size and mid-latitude city can be used in the development and evaluation of regional-scale and global climate model cumulus parameterizations that describes the transport and transformations of these aerosols by fair-weather cumulus. The Department of Energy (DOE) G-1 aircraft was one of the main platforms used in CHAPS. It carried a suite of instruments to measure properties of interstitial aerosols behind an isokinetic inlet and a set of duplicate instruments to determine properties of activated particles behind a counter-flow virtual impactor (CVI). The sampling line to the Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer was switched between the isokinetic inlet and the CVI to allow characterization of interstitial particles out of clouds in contrast to particles activated in clouds. Trace gases including ozone, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and a series of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were also measured as were key meteorological state parameters including liquid water content, cloud drop size, and dew point temperature were measured. This presentation will focus on results related to the transformation and transport of aerosols and trace gases observed in fair-weather cumulus and compare these results with concurrent observations made outside these clouds. Our interest will focus on the differences in particle size and composition under varying conditions. The role of

  10. Case studies of size resolved CCN composition and cloud properties in cumulus humilis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, X.; Berg, L. K.; Berkowitz, C. M.; Lee, Y.; Alexander, L.; Ogren, J. A.; Andrews, B.

    2010-12-01

    The Cumulus Humilis Aerosol Processing Study (CHAPS) provided a unique opportunity to study cloud processing of aerosols. Clouds play an active role in the processing and cycling of atmospheric constituents. Within in a cloud, gases and particles can partition to cloud droplets by absorption and condensation as well as activation and impact scavenging. The Department of Energy (DOE) G-1 aircraft was used as one of the main platforms in CHAPS. G-1 flight tracks were designed to characterize aerosols at cloud top and cloud base as well as within individual cumulus humilis (or fair-weather cumulus), in the vicinity of Oklahoma City. Measurements of interstitial aerosols and residuals of activated condensation cloud nuclei were conducted simultaneously. The interstitial aerosols were measured downstream of an isokinetic inlet, and the activated particles downstream of a counter-flow virtual impactor (CVI). The sampling line to the Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) was switched between the isokinetic inlet and the CVI to allow characterization of non-activated particles outside of clouds in contrast to particles activated in clouds. Trace gases including ozone, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and a series of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were measured. Key meteorological state parameters included liquid water content, cloud drop size, and dew point. In this presentation, we will focus on case studies of CCN properties in cumulus humilis. The first analysis summarizes three case studies of measurements made at cloud bottom and in-cloud by the AMS. The size-resolved composition is different between background and activated particles. The second analysis links in situ measurements of aerosol, trace gas, and VOCs to look into the sources of CCN. For instance, by comparing the characteristic m/z ratios by AMS and tracers like CO or isoprene, one can gain more insight into the role of primary and secondary organic aerosols in CCN and background aerosols. The third

  11. Dynamic changes of connexin-43, gap junctional protein, in outer layers of cumulus cells are regulated by PKC and PI 3-kinase during meiotic resumption in porcine oocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimada, M; Maeda, T; Terada, T

    2001-04-01

    Mammalian oocytes are surrounded by numerous layers of cumulus cells, and the loss of gap junctional communication in the outer layers of cumulus cells induces meiotic resumption in oocytes. In this study, we investigated the dynamic changes in the gap junctional protein connexin-43 in cumulus cells during the meiotic resumption of porcine oocytes. The amount of connexin-43 in all layers of cumulus cells recovered from cumulus-oocyte complexes was increased after 4-h cultivation. However, at 12-h cultivation, the positive signal for connexin-43 immunoreactivity was markedly reduced in the outer layers of cumulus cells. When these reductions of connexin-43 were blocked by protein kinase C (PKC) or phosphatidylinositol (PI) 3-kinase inhibitor, networks of filamentous bivalents (i.e., advanced chromosomal status) were undetectable in the germinal vesicle of the oocyte. After 28-h cultivation, when the majority of oocytes were reaching the metaphase I (MI) stage, the connexin-43 in the inner layers of cumulus cells was phosphorylated, regardless of mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase activation. These results suggest that the initiation of meiotic resumption, namely, the formation of networks of filamentous bivalents in germinal vesicle, is associated with the reduction of gap junctional protein connexin-43 in the outer layers of cumulus cells via the PKC and/or PI 3-kinase pathway. Moreover, the connexin-43 in the inner layers of cumulus cells is phosphorylated during meiotic progression beyond the MI stage, regardless of MAP kinase activation in cumulus cells surrounding the oocyte.

  12. Evaluating the trade-offs between ensemble size and ensemble resolution in an ensemble-variational data assimilation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Lili; Whitaker, Jeffrey S.

    2017-06-01

    The current NCEP operational four-dimensional ensemble-variational data assimilation system uses a control forecast at T1534 resolution coupled with an 80 member ensemble at T574 resolution. Given an increase in computing resources, and assuming the control forecast resolution is fixed, would it be better to increase the ensemble size and keep the ensemble resolution the same, or increase the ensemble resolution and keep the ensemble size the same? To answer this question, experiments are conducted at reduced resolutions. Two sets of experiments are conducted which both use approximately four times more computational resources than the control experiment that uses a control forecast at T670 and an 80 member ensemble at T254. One increases the ensemble size to 320 but keeps the ensemble resolution at T254; and the other increases the ensemble resolution to T670 but retains an 80 ensemble size. When ensemble size increases to 320, turning off the static component of the background-error covariance does not degrade performance. When the data assimilation parameters are tuned for optimal performance, increasing either ensemble size or ensemble resolution can improve the forecast performance. Increasing ensemble resolution is slightly, but significantly better than increasing ensemble size for these experiments, particularly when considering errors at smaller scales. Much of the benefit of increasing ensemble resolution comes about by eliminating the need for a deterministic control forecast and running all of the background forecasts at the same resolution. In this "single-resolution" mode, the control forecast is replaced by an ensemble average, which reduces small-scale errors significantly.

  13. Algorithms on ensemble quantum computers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boykin, P Oscar; Mor, Tal; Roychowdhury, Vwani; Vatan, Farrokh

    2010-06-01

    In ensemble (or bulk) quantum computation, all computations are performed on an ensemble of computers rather than on a single computer. Measurements of qubits in an individual computer cannot be performed; instead, only expectation values (over the complete ensemble of computers) can be measured. As a result of this limitation on the model of computation, many algorithms cannot be processed directly on such computers, and must be modified, as the common strategy of delaying the measurements usually does not resolve this ensemble-measurement problem. Here we present several new strategies for resolving this problem. Based on these strategies we provide new versions of some of the most important quantum algorithms, versions that are suitable for implementing on ensemble quantum computers, e.g., on liquid NMR quantum computers. These algorithms are Shor's factorization algorithm, Grover's search algorithm (with several marked items), and an algorithm for quantum fault-tolerant computation. The first two algorithms are simply modified using a randomizing and a sorting strategies. For the last algorithm, we develop a classical-quantum hybrid strategy for removing measurements. We use it to present a novel quantum fault-tolerant scheme. More explicitly, we present schemes for fault-tolerant measurement-free implementation of Toffoli and σ(z)(¼) as these operations cannot be implemented "bitwise", and their standard fault-tolerant implementations require measurement.

  14. CME Ensemble Forecasting - A Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.; de Koning, C. A.; Cash, M. D.; Millward, G. H.; Biesecker, D. A.; Codrescu, M.; Puga, L.; Odstrcil, D.

    2014-12-01

    SWPC has been evaluating various approaches for ensemble forecasting of Earth-directed CMEs. We have developed the software infrastructure needed to support broad-ranging CME ensemble modeling, including composing, interpreting, and making intelligent use of ensemble simulations. The first step is to determine whether the physics of the interplanetary propagation of CMEs is better described as chaotic (like terrestrial weather) or deterministic (as in tsunami propagation). This is important, since different ensemble strategies are to be pursued under the two scenarios. We present the findings of a comprehensive study of CME ensembles in uniform and structured backgrounds that reveals systematic relationships between input cone parameters and ambient flow states and resulting transit times and velocity/density amplitudes at Earth. These results clearly indicate that the propagation of single CMEs to 1 AU is a deterministic process. Thus, the accuracy with which one can forecast the gross properties (such as arrival time) of CMEs at 1 AU is determined primarily by the accuracy of the inputs. This is no tautology - it means specifically that efforts to improve forecast accuracy should focus upon obtaining better inputs, as opposed to developing better propagation models. In a companion paper (deKoning et al., this conference), we compare in situ solar wind data with forecast events in the SWPC operational archive to show how the qualitative and quantitative findings presented here are entirely consistent with the observations and may lead to improved forecasts of arrival time at Earth.

  15. Estimating preselected and postselected ensembles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Massar, Serge [Laboratoire d' Information Quantique, C.P. 225, Universite libre de Bruxelles (U.L.B.), Av. F. D. Rooselvelt 50, B-1050 Bruxelles (Belgium); Popescu, Sandu [H. H. Wills Physics Laboratory, University of Bristol, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TL (United Kingdom); Hewlett-Packard Laboratories, Stoke Gifford, Bristol BS12 6QZ (United Kingdom)

    2011-11-15

    In analogy with the usual quantum state-estimation problem, we introduce the problem of state estimation for a pre- and postselected ensemble. The problem has fundamental physical significance since, as argued by Y. Aharonov and collaborators, pre- and postselected ensembles are the most basic quantum ensembles. Two new features are shown to appear: (1) information is flowing to the measuring device both from the past and from the future; (2) because of the postselection, certain measurement outcomes can be forced never to occur. Due to these features, state estimation in such ensembles is dramatically different from the case of ordinary, preselected-only ensembles. We develop a general theoretical framework for studying this problem and illustrate it through several examples. We also prove general theorems establishing that information flowing from the future is closely related to, and in some cases equivalent to, the complex conjugate information flowing from the past. Finally, we illustrate our approach on examples involving covariant measurements on spin-1/2 particles. We emphasize that all state-estimation problems can be extended to the pre- and postselected situation. The present work thus lays the foundations of a much more general theory of quantum state estimation.

  16. Roles of trifluoperazine and verapamil in the oocyte maturation and cumulus expansion of bovine cumulus—oocyte complexes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SunQingyuan; FengHuailiang; 等

    1994-01-01

    Bovine cumulus-oocyte complexes were cultured in the maturation medium containing 4 different concentrations of verapamil and trifluoperazine to testify the necessity of extracellular Ca2+ and Ca2+-calmodulin complex for the resumption and completion of meiosis as well as cumulus expansion.Ultrastructure of the treated oocytes was also observed to investigate the cytoplasm maturation.The results showed that verapamil didn't influence the cumulus expansion,meiosis resumption and completion and cytoplasm maturation significantly.TFP inhibited cumulus expansion in a dose-dependent manner.25um trifluoperazine significantly inhibited the GVBD and maturation (P<0.01),wherease 1um TFP had no effect,Both oocytes and cumulus cells treated with 25um TFP severely degenerated.Our observtions suggest that the resumption and completion of meiosis and cumulus expansion are Ca2+-CaM dependent and blocking membrane Ca2+ channel does not influence oocyte germinal vesicle breakdown,nuclear and cytoplasm maturation significantly in cattle.

  17. Linking neuronal ensembles by associative synaptic plasticity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Yuan

    Full Text Available Synchronized activity in ensembles of neurons recruited by excitatory afferents is thought to contribute to the coding information in the brain. However, the mechanisms by which neuronal ensembles are generated and modified are not known. Here we show that in rat hippocampal slices associative synaptic plasticity enables ensembles of neurons to change by incorporating neurons belonging to different ensembles. Associative synaptic plasticity redistributes the composition of different ensembles recruited by distinct inputs such as to specifically increase the similarity between the ensembles. These results show that in the hippocampus, the ensemble of neurons recruited by a given afferent projection is fluid and can be rapidly and persistently modified to specifically include neurons from different ensembles. This linking of ensembles may contribute to the formation of associative memories.

  18. Effects of cumulus entrainment and multiple cloud types on a January global climate model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Mao-Sung; Del Genio, Anthony D.

    1989-01-01

    An improved version of the GISS Model II cumulus parameterization designed for long-term climate integrations is used to study the effects of entrainment and multiple cloud types on the January climate simulation. Instead of prescribing convective mass as a fixed fraction of the cloud base grid-box mass, it is calculated based on the closure assumption that the cumulus convection restores the atmosphere to a neutral moist convective state at cloud base. This change alone significantly improves the distribution of precipitation, convective mass exchanges, and frequencies in the January climate. The vertical structure of the tropical atmosphere exhibits quasi-equilibrium behavior when this closure is used, even though there is no explicit constraint applied above cloud base.

  19. Cumulus cell transcripts transit to the bovine oocyte in preparation for maturation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Macaulay, Angus D.; Gilbert, Isabelle; Scantland, Sara

    2016-01-01

    , revealed transcripts common to all three fractions, suggesting the use of transferred transcripts for translation. Furthermore, the removal of potential RNA trafficking by stripping the cumulus cells caused a significant reduction in maturation rates, indicating the need for the cumulus cell RNA transfer...... that the somatic cells also contribute transcripts to the gamete. Here, we show that these transcripts can be visualized moving down the transzonal projections (TZPs) to the oocyte, and that a time course analysis revealed progressive RNA accumulation in the TZPs, indicating that RNA transfer occurs before......So far, the characteristics of a good quality egg have been elusive, similar to the nature of the physiological, cellular, and molecular cues leading to its production both in vivo and in vitro. Current understanding highlights a strong and complex interdependence between the follicular cells...

  20. Shallow-cumulus cloud feedback: model uncertainties and perspectives of observational constraint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bony, Sandrine

    2017-04-01

    Shallow-cumulus clouds constitute the most prominent cloud type on Earth, and their response to changing environmental conditions is critical for climate sensitivity. Research over the last decade has pointed out the importance of the interplay between clouds, convection, turbulence and circulation in controlling this response. Unfortunately, numerical models represent this interplay in diverse ways, which translates into different shallow-cumulus cloud feedbacks in climate change. Climate models predict that the cloud-base cloud fraction is very sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, while process models suggest that it is very resilient to such changes. To understand and solve this contradiction, a field campaign named EUREC4A (Elucidating the role of clouds-circulation coupling in climate) will be organized in the lower Atlantic trades in Jan-Fev 2020. The scientific objectives of this campaign will be presented, and the experimental strategy envisioned to reach these objectives will be discussed.

  1. A mollified Ensemble Kalman filter

    CERN Document Server

    Bergemann, Kay

    2010-01-01

    It is well recognized that discontinuous analysis increments of sequential data assimilation systems, such as ensemble Kalman filters, might lead to spurious high frequency adjustment processes in the model dynamics. Various methods have been devised to continuously spread out the analysis increments over a fixed time interval centered about analysis time. Among these techniques are nudging and incremental analysis updates (IAU). Here we propose another alternative, which may be viewed as a hybrid of nudging and IAU and which arises naturally from a recently proposed continuous formulation of the ensemble Kalman analysis step. A new slow-fast extension of the popular Lorenz-96 model is introduced to demonstrate the properties of the proposed mollified ensemble Kalman filter.

  2. Excitation energies from ensemble DFT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgoo, Alex; Teale, Andy M.; Helgaker, Trygve

    2015-12-01

    We study the evaluation of the Gross-Oliveira-Kohn expression for excitation energies E1-E0=ɛ1-ɛ0+∂E/xc,w[ρ] ∂w | ρ =ρ0. This expression gives the difference between an excitation energy E1 - E0 and the corresponding Kohn-Sham orbital energy difference ɛ1 - ɛ0 as a partial derivative of the exchange-correlation energy of an ensemble of states Exc,w[ρ]. Through Lieb maximisation, on input full-CI density functions, the exchange-correlation energy is evaluated accurately and the partial derivative is evaluated numerically using finite difference. The equality is studied numerically for different geometries of the H2 molecule and different ensemble weights. We explore the adiabatic connection for the ensemble exchange-correlation energy. The latter may prove useful when modelling the unknown weight dependence of the exchange-correlation energy.

  3. Observations of rapid aerosol optical depth enhancements in the vicinity of polluted cumulus clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eck, T. F.; Holben, B. N.; Reid, J. S.; Arola, A.; Ferrare, R. A.; Hostetler, C. A.; Crumeyrolle, S. N.; Berkoff, T. A.; Welton, E. J.; Lolli, S.; Lyapustin, A.; Wang, Y.; Schafer, J. S.; Giles, D. M.; Anderson, B. E.; Thornhill, K. L.; Minnis, P.; Pickering, K. E.; Loughner, C. P.; Smirnov, A.; Sinyuk, A.

    2014-11-01

    During the July 2011 Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ) field experiment in Maryland, significant enhancements in Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun-sky radiometer measured aerosol optical depth (AOD) were observed in the immediate vicinity of non-precipitating cumulus clouds on some days. Both measured Ångström exponents and aerosol size distribution retrievals made before, during and after cumulus development often suggest little change in fine mode particle size; therefore, implying possible new particle formation in addition to cloud processing and humidification of existing particles. In addition to sun-sky radiometer measurements of large enhancements of fine mode AOD, lidar measurements made from both ground-based and aircraft-based instruments during the experiment also measured large increases in aerosol signal at altitudes associated with the presence of fair weather cumulus clouds. These data show modifications of the aerosol vertical profile as a result of the aerosol enhancements at and below cloud altitudes. The airborne lidar data were utilized to estimate the spatial extent of these aerosol enhancements, finding increased AOD, backscatter and extinction out to 2.5 km distance from the cloud edge. Furthermore, in situ measurements made from aircraft vertical profiles over an AERONET site during the experiment also showed large increases in aerosol scattering and aerosol volume after cloud formation as compared to before. The 15-year AERONET database of AOD measurements at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Maryland site, was investigated in order to obtain a climatological perspective of this phenomenon of AOD enhancement. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of AOD in summer showed significant increases in AOD from morning to late afternoon, corresponding to the diurnal cycle of cumulus development.

  4. The effects of roscovitine on cumulus cell apoptosis and the developmental competence of domestic cat oocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sananmuang, T; Techakumphu, M; Tharasanit, T

    2010-01-15

    The developmental competence of cat oocytes matured in vitro is relatively poor when compared with that of in vivo oocytes. The study aimed to investigate the effect of roscovitine on the developmental competence of cat Felis catus oocytes matured in vitro. Cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs) were classified as Grade I and II to III. Groups of COCs were cultured in 0, 12.5, 25, 50, 100, and 200 microM roscovitine for 24h and were either fixed to assess the stages of nuclear maturation (Experiment 1) or additionally matured in vitro for 24h before fixation (Experiment 2). In Experiment 3, cumulus cells from the COCs treated with roscovitine were examined for apoptosis. Experiment 4 examined the developmental competence of cat oocytes after roscovitine treatment and in vitro fertilization in terms of cleavage and morula and blastocyst formation rates. Roscovitine reversibly arrested cat oocytes at an immature stage in a dose-dependent manner. Roscovitine at 12.5 and 25 microM demonstrated less efficiency compared with that of other doses. However, higher doses of roscovitine induced cumulus cell apoptosis and resulted in a high number of degenerated oocytes after in vitro maturation. Roscovitine at 12.5 and 25 microM were therefore used to evaluate their effect on embryo development. Pretreatment with 12.5 and 25 microM roscovitine prior to in vitro maturation decreased the developmental competence of cat oocytes compared with that of non-roscovitine-treated controls. In conclusion, roscovitine reversibly maintained cat oocytes at the germinal vesicle stage without detrimental effect on nuclear maturation. However, it negatively affected cumulus cell viability and developmental competence.

  5. Grading of Mammalian Cumulus Oocyte Complexes using Machine Learning for in Vitro Embryo Culture

    OpenAIRE

    Sudarshan, Viswanath P; Weiser, Tobias; Chintala, Phalgun; Mandal, Subhamoy; Dutta, Rahul

    2016-01-01

    Visual observation of Cumulus Oocyte Complexes provides only limited information about its functional competence, whereas the molecular evaluations methods are cumbersome or costly. Image analysis of mammalian oocytes can provide attractive alternative to address this challenge. However, it is complex, given the huge number of oocytes under inspection and the subjective nature of the features inspected for identification. Supervised machine learning methods like random forest with annotations...

  6. Mechanisms and Model Diversity of Trade-Wind Shallow Cumulus Cloud Feedbacks: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vial, Jessica; Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Vogel, Raphaela

    2017-07-01

    Shallow cumulus clouds in the trade-wind regions are at the heart of the long standing uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimates. In current climate models, cloud feedbacks are strongly influenced by cloud-base cloud amount in the trades. Therefore, understanding the key factors controlling cloudiness near cloud-base in shallow convective regimes has emerged as an important topic of investigation. We review physical understanding of these key controlling factors and discuss the value of the different approaches that have been developed so far, based on global and high-resolution model experimentations and process-oriented analyses across a range of models and for observations. The trade-wind cloud feedbacks appear to depend on two important aspects: (1) how cloudiness near cloud-base is controlled by the local interplay between turbulent, convective and radiative processes; (2) how these processes interact with their surrounding environment and are influenced by mesoscale organization. Our synthesis of studies that have explored these aspects suggests that the large diversity of model responses is related to fundamental differences in how the processes controlling trade cumulus operate in models, notably, whether they are parameterized or resolved. In models with parameterized convection, cloudiness near cloud-base is very sensitive to the vigor of convective mixing in response to changes in environmental conditions. This is in contrast with results from high-resolution models, which suggest that cloudiness near cloud-base is nearly invariant with warming and independent of large-scale environmental changes. Uncertainties are difficult to narrow using current observations, as the trade cumulus variability and its relation to large-scale environmental factors strongly depend on the time and/or spatial scales at which the mechanisms are evaluated. New opportunities for testing physical understanding of the factors controlling shallow cumulus cloud responses using

  7. Repeated superovulation may affect mitochondrial functions of cumulus cells in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Juan-Ke; Wang, Qian; Zhang, Ting-Ting; Yin, Shen; Zhang, Cui-Lian; Ge, Zhao-Jia

    2016-10-04

    Controlled ovarian stimulation by exogenous gonadotrophins is a key procedure during the in vitro fertilization cycle to obtain a sufficient number of oocytes in humans. Previous studies demonstrated that repeated superovulation had deleterious effects on the ovaries. However, whether repeated superovulation adversely affects the mitochondrial functions of cumulus cells remains unclear. In this study, mice were divided into three groups: superovulation once (R1); superovulation three times (R3), and superovulation five times (R5). We evaluated the effects of repeated superovulation on mitochondrial DNA copies (mtDNA) and observed decreased mtDNA copies per cell with increasing number of superovulation cycles. Further, we investigated the DNA methylation status in exon 2 and the mRNA expression level of nuclear-encoded DNA polymerase gamma A (PolgA). The results showed that the DNA methylation levels of PolgA in R1 and R5 were slightly lower than in R3. Additionally, the altered DNA methylation in PolgA coincided with the changes in PolgA expression in cumulus cells. We also found that the mRNA expression of COX1, CYTB, ND2, and ND4 was altered by repeated superovulation in cumulus cells. Thus, repeated superovulation had adverse effects on mitochondrial function.

  8. The Partition Ensemble Fallacy Fallacy

    CERN Document Server

    Nemoto, K; Nemoto, Kae; Braunstein, Samuel L.

    2002-01-01

    The Partition Ensemble Fallacy was recently applied to claim no quantum coherence exists in coherent states produced by lasers. We show that this claim relies on an untestable belief of a particular prior distribution of absolute phase. One's choice for the prior distribution for an unobservable quantity is a matter of `religion'. We call this principle the Partition Ensemble Fallacy Fallacy. Further, we show an alternative approach to construct a relative-quantity Hilbert subspace where unobservability of certain quantities is guaranteed by global conservation laws. This approach is applied to coherent states and constructs an approximate relative-phase Hilbert subspace.

  9. Cloud Condensation Nuclei in Cumulus Humilis - Selected Case Study During the CHAPS Campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, X.; Berg, L. K.; Berkowitz, C. M.; Alexander, M. L.; Lee, Y.; Laskin, A.; Ogren, J. A.; Andrews, B.

    2009-12-01

    The Cumulus Humilis Aerosol Processing Study (CHAPS) provided a unique opportunity to study aerosol and cloud processing. Clouds play an active role in the processing and cycling of atmospheric constituents. Gases and particles can partition to cloud droplets by absorption and condensation as well as activation and pact scavenging. The Department of Energy (DOE) G-1 aircraft was used as one of the main platforms in CHAPS. Flight tracks were designed and implemented to characterize freshly emitted aerosols on cloud top and cloud base as well as with cloud, i.e., cumulus humilis (or fair-weather cumulus), in the vicinity of Oklahoma City. Measurements of interstitial aerosols and residuals of activated condensation cloud nuclei were conducted simultaneously. The interstitial aerosols were determined downstream of an isokinetic inlet; and the activated particles downstream of a counter-flow virtual impactor (CVI). The sampling line to the Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer was switched between the isokinetic inlet and the CVI to allow characterization of interstitial particles out of clouds in contrast to particles activated in clouds. Trace gases including ozone, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and a series of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were also measured as were key meteorological state parameters including liquid water content, cloud drop size, and dew point temperature were measured. This work will focus on studying CCN properties in cumulus humilis. Several approaches will be taken. The first is single particle analysis of particles collected by the Time-Resolved Aerosol Sampler (TRAC) by SEM/TEM coupled with EDX. We will specifically look into differences in particle properties such as chemical composition and morphology between activated and interstitial ones. The second analysis will link in situ measurements with the snap shots observations by TRAC. For instance, by looking into the characteristic m/z obtained by AMS vs. CO or isoprene, one can gain

  10. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martre, Pierre; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold

    2015-01-01

    , but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24...

  11. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  12. Mouse Oocytes Enable LH-Induced Maturation of the Cumulus-Oocyte Complex via Promoting EGF Receptor-Dependent Signaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, You-Qiang; Sugiura, Koji; Li, Qinglei; Wigglesworth, Karen; Matzuk, Martin M.; Eppig, John J.

    2010-01-01

    LH triggers the maturation of the cumulus-oocyte complex (COC), which is followed by ovulation. These ovarian follicular responses to LH are mediated by epidermal growth factor (EGF)-like growth factors produced by granulosa cells and require the participation of oocyte-derived paracrine factors. However, it is not clear how oocytes coordinate with the EGF receptor (EGFR) signaling to achieve COC maturation. The aim of the present study was to test the hypothesis that oocytes promote the expression of EGFR by cumulus cells, thus enabling them to respond to the LH-induced EGF-like peptides. Egfr mRNA and protein expression were dramatically reduced in cumulus cells of mutant mice deficient in the production of the oocyte-derived paracrine factors growth differentiation factor 9 (GDF9) and bone morphogenetic protein 15 (BMP15). Moreover, microsurgical removal of oocytes from wild-type COCs dramatically reduced expression of Egfr mRNA and protein, and these levels were restored by either coculture with oocytes or treatment with recombinant GDF9 or GDF9 plus recombinant BMP15. Blocking Sma- and Mad-related protein (SMAD)2/3 phosphorylation in vitro inhibited Egfr expression in wild-type COCs and in GDF9-treated wild-type cumulus cells, and conditional deletion of Smad2 and Smad3 genes in granulosa cells in vivo resulted in the reduction of Egfr mRNA in cumulus cells. These results indicate that oocytes promote expression of Egfr in cumulus cells, and a SMAD2/3-dependent pathway is involved in this process. At least two oocyte-derived growth factors, GDF9 and BMP15, are required for EGFR expression by cumulus cells. PMID:20382892

  13. Cumulus Cell Role on Mouse Germinal Vesicle Oocyte Maturation, Fertilization, and Subsequent Embryo Development to Blastocyst Stage In Vitro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Mahmodi

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of cumulus cells on maturation,fertilization and subsequent development of mouse germinal vesicle oocytes.Materials and Methods: A total of 470 germinal vesicle (GV oocytes were obtained from26 ovaries of 3- 4 week old ICR female mice 48 hours after injection of 5 IU pregnant mareserum gonadotropin (PMSG. Collected oocytes were divided into two groups; group I: GVoocytes without cumulus cells (denuded oocyte, group II: GV oocytes with cumulus cells(cumulus-oocyte complex. The oocytes in both groups were cultured in TCM-199 mediumsupplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum (FBS for 22- 24 hours in a humidified atmosphereof 5% CO2 in air at 37°C. Oocyte maturation was scored under inverted microscope.To do in vitro fertilization, matured oocytes from each group were placed in T6 mediumand capacitated spermatozoa were added. Then the fertilized oocytes were cultured andassessed for cleavage to the 2-cell stage 24 hours and production of blastocyst 120 hoursafter fertilization. Data was analyzed by chi-square test and differences in the values wereconsiderable significant when p<0.05.Results: Maturation, fertilization, cleavage and blastocyst rates in denuded oocytes were:76.32%, 57.49%, 51.15% and 19.14% respectively. In the cumulus-oocyte complex rateswere: 89.41%, 80.76%, 75.58% and 45.62% respectively; all in the cumulus-oocyte complexwere significantly higher than those of denuded oocytes (p<0.05.Conclusion: The present study indicates that cumulus cells have important role duringmaturation, fertilization and subsequent embryo development to the blastocyst stage.

  14. Squeezing of Collective Excitations in Spin Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraglund Andersen, Christian; Mølmer, Klaus

    2012-01-01

    We analyse the possibility to create two-mode spin squeezed states of two separate spin ensembles by inverting the spins in one ensemble and allowing spin exchange between the ensembles via a near resonant cavity field. We investigate the dynamics of the system using a combination of numerical an...

  15. Classical and Quantum Ensembles via Multiresolution. II. Wigner Ensembles

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    We present the application of the variational-wavelet analysis to the analysis of quantum ensembles in Wigner framework. (Naive) deformation quantization, the multiresolution representations and the variational approach are the key points. We construct the solutions of Wigner-like equations via the multiscale expansions in the generalized coherent states or high-localized nonlinear eigenmodes in the base of the compactly supported wavelets and the wavelet packets. We demonstrate the appearanc...

  16. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System (HEPS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thielen-Del Pozo, J.; Schaake, J.; Martin, E.; Pailleux, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2010-09-01

    Flood forecasting systems form a key part of ‘preparedness' strategies for disastrous floods and provide hydrological services, civil protection authorities and the public with information of upcoming events. Provided the warning leadtime is sufficiently long, adequate preparatory actions can be taken to efficiently reduce the impacts of the flooding. Following on the success of the use of ensembles for weather forecasting, the hydrological community now moves increasingly towards Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) for improved flood forecasting using operationally available NWP products as inputs. However, these products are often generated on relatively coarse scales compared to hydrologically relevant basin units and suffer systematic biases that may have considerable impact when passed through the non-linear hydrological filters. Therefore, a better understanding on how best to produce, communicate and use hydrologic ensemble forecasts in hydrological short-, medium- und long term prediction of hydrological processes is necessary. The "Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment" (HEPEX), is an international initiative consisting of hydrologists, meteorologist and end-users to advance probabilistic hydrologic forecast techniques for flood, drought and water management applications. Different aspects of the hydrological ensemble processor are being addressed including • Production of useful meteorological products relevant for hydrological applications, ranging from nowcasting products to seasonal forecasts. The importance of hindcasts that are consistent with the operational weather forecasts will be discussed to support bias correction and downscaling, statistically meaningful verification of HEPS, and the development and testing of operating rules; • Need for downscaling and post-processing of weather ensembles to reduce bias before entering hydrological applications; • Hydrological model and parameter uncertainty and how to correct and

  17. Regulation of fatty acid oxidation in mouse cumulus-oocyte complexes during maturation and modulation by PPAR agonists.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kylie R Dunning

    Full Text Available Fatty acid oxidation is an important energy source for the oocyte; however, little is known about how this metabolic pathway is regulated in cumulus-oocyte complexes. Analysis of genes involved in fatty acid oxidation showed that many are regulated by the luteinizing hormone surge during in vivo maturation, including acyl-CoA synthetases, carnitine transporters, acyl-CoA dehydrogenases and acetyl-CoA transferase, but that many are dysregulated when cumulus-oocyte complexes are matured under in vitro maturation conditions using follicle stimulating hormone and epidermal growth factor. Fatty acid oxidation, measured as production of ³H₂O from [³H]palmitic acid, occurs in mouse cumulus-oocyte complexes in response to the luteinizing hormone surge but is significantly reduced in cumulus-oocyte complexes matured in vitro. Thus we sought to determine whether fatty acid oxidation in cumulus-oocyte complexes could be modulated during in vitro maturation by lipid metabolism regulators, namely peroxisome proliferator activated receptor (PPAR agonists bezafibrate and rosiglitazone. Bezafibrate showed no effect with increasing dose, while rosiglitazone dose dependently inhibited fatty acid oxidation in cumulus-oocyte complexes during in vitro maturation. To determine the impact of rosiglitazone on oocyte developmental competence, cumulus-oocyte complexes were treated with rosiglitazone during in vitro maturation and gene expression, oocyte mitochondrial activity and embryo development following in vitro fertilization were assessed. Rosiglitazone restored Acsl1, Cpt1b and Acaa2 levels in cumulus-oocyte complexes and increased oocyte mitochondrial membrane potential yet resulted in significantly fewer embryos reaching the morula and hatching blastocyst stages. Thus fatty acid oxidation is increased in cumulus-oocyte complexes matured in vivo and deficient during in vitro maturation, a known model of poor oocyte quality. That rosiglitazone further

  18. The effects of discontinuities in the Betts Miller cumulus convection scheme on four-dimensional variational data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zupanski, Dušanka

    1993-10-01

    A tangent linear and an adjoint of the large-scale precipitation and the cumulus convection processes in the National Meteorological Center's NMC/ETA regional forecast model are developed. The effects of discontinuities in the Betts Miller cumulus convection scheme are examined and applicability of derivative minimization methods in four-dimensional variational (4D VAR) data assimilation is considered. It is demonstrated that discontinuities present in the control Betts Miller cumulus convection scheme increase linearization errors to a large extent and have adverse effects on 4D VAR data assimilation. In the experiments performed, discontinuities in the cumulus convection scheme have the most serious effect in low layers. These problems can be reduced by modifying the scheme to make it more continuous in low layers. Positive effects of inclusion of cumulus convection in 4D VAR data assimilation are found in upper layers, especially in humidity fields. The "observations" used are optimal interpolation analyses of temperature, surface pressure, wind and specific humidity. By inclusion of other data, more closely related to the convective processes, such as precipitation and clouds, more benefits should be expected. Even with the difficulties caused by discontinuities, derivative minimization techniques appear to work for the data assimilation problems. In order to get more general conclusions, more experiments are needed with different synoptic situations. The inclusion of other important physical processes such as radiation, surface friction and turbulence in the forecast and the corresponding adjoint models could alter the results since they may reinforce the effects of discontinuities.

  19. cyclic GMP Mediated Inhibition of Spontaneous Germinal Vesicle Breakdown Both with and without Cumulus in Mouse Oocyte.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Heekyung; Cheon, Yong-Pil

    2016-12-01

    Intact germinal vesicle (GV) arrest and release are essential for maintaining the fertility of mammals inducing human. Intact germinal vesicle release, maturation of oocytes is maintained by very complex procedures along with folliculogenesis and is a critical step for embryonic development. Cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP) has been suggested a key factor for meiotic arrest but so far its mechanisms are controversy. In this study we examine the effects of cGMP on germinal vesicle breakdown in cumulus-enclosed oocytes and denuded oocytes. Spontaneous maturation was inhibited by a cGMP agonist, 8-Br-cGMP with concentration dependent manners both in cumulus-enclosed oocytes and denuded oocytes. The inhibitory effect was more severe in denuded oocytes than cumulus-enclosed oocytes. The Rp-8-Br-cGMP and Rp-pCPT-8-Br-cGMP did not severely block GVB compared to 8-Br-cGMP. The spontaneous GVB inhibitory effects were different by the existence of cumulus. Based on them it is suggested that the cumulus modulates the role of cGMP in GV arrest.

  20. Spectral diagonal ensemble Kalman filters

    CERN Document Server

    Kasanický, Ivan; Vejmelka, Martin

    2015-01-01

    A new type of ensemble Kalman filter is developed, which is based on replacing the sample covariance in the analysis step by its diagonal in a spectral basis. It is proved that this technique improves the aproximation of the covariance when the covariance itself is diagonal in the spectral basis, as is the case, e.g., for a second-order stationary random field and the Fourier basis. The method is extended by wavelets to the case when the state variables are random fields, which are not spatially homogeneous. Efficient implementations by the fast Fourier transform (FFT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) are presented for several types of observations, including high-dimensional data given on a part of the domain, such as radar and satellite images. Computational experiments confirm that the method performs well on the Lorenz 96 problem and the shallow water equations with very small ensembles and over multiple analysis cycles.

  1. Symanzik flow on HISQ ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Bazavov, A; Brown, N; DeTar, C; Foley, J; Gottlieb, Steven; Heller, U M; Hetrick, J E; Laiho, J; Levkova, L; Oktay, M; Sugar, R L; Toussaint, D; Van de Water, R S; Zhou, R

    2013-01-01

    We report on a scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f = 2 + 1 + 1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The lattice scale $w_0/a$, originally proposed by the BMW collaboration, is computed using Symanzik flow at four lattice spacings ranging from 0.15 to 0.06 fm. With a Taylor series ansatz, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. We give a preliminary determination of the scale $w_0$ in physical units, along with associated systematic errors, and compare with results from other groups. We also present a first estimate of autocorrelation lengths as a function of flowtime for these ensembles.

  2. Statistical Analysis of Protein Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Máté, Gabriell; Heermann, Dieter

    2014-04-01

    As 3D protein-configuration data is piling up, there is an ever-increasing need for well-defined, mathematically rigorous analysis approaches, especially that the vast majority of the currently available methods rely heavily on heuristics. We propose an analysis framework which stems from topology, the field of mathematics which studies properties preserved under continuous deformations. First, we calculate a barcode representation of the molecules employing computational topology algorithms. Bars in this barcode represent different topological features. Molecules are compared through their barcodes by statistically determining the difference in the set of their topological features. As a proof-of-principle application, we analyze a dataset compiled of ensembles of different proteins, obtained from the Ensemble Protein Database. We demonstrate that our approach correctly detects the different protein groupings.

  3. Statistical Analysis of Protein Ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriell eMáté

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As 3D protein-configuration data is piling up, there is an ever-increasing need for well-defined, mathematically rigorous analysis approaches, especially that the vast majority of the currently available methods rely heavily on heuristics. We propose an analysis framework which stems from topology, the field of mathematics which studies properties preserved under continuous deformations. First, we calculate a barcode representation of the molecules employing computational topology algorithms. Bars in this barcode represent different topological features. Molecules are compared through their barcodes by statistically determining the difference in the set of their topological features. As a proof-of-principle application, we analyze a dataset compiled of ensembles of different proteins, obtained from the Ensemble Protein Database. We demonstrate that our approach correctly detects the different protein groupings.

  4. Structural characterization of PTX3 disulfide bond network and its multimeric status in cumulus matrix organization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inforzato, Antonio; Rivieccio, Vincenzo; Morreale, Antonio P; Bastone, Antonio; Salustri, Antonietta; Scarchilli, Laura; Verdoliva, Antonio; Vincenti, Silvia; Gallo, Grazia; Chiapparino, Caterina; Pacello, Lucrezia; Nucera, Eleonora; Serlupi-Crescenzi, Ottaviano; Day, Anthony J; Bottazzi, Barbara; Mantovani, Alberto; De Santis, Rita; Salvatori, Giovanni

    2008-04-11

    PTX3 is an acute phase glycoprotein that plays key roles in resistance to certain pathogens and in female fertility. PTX3 exerts its functions by interacting with a number of structurally unrelated molecules, a capacity that is likely to rely on its complex multimeric structure stabilized by interchain disulfide bonds. In this study, PAGE analyses performed under both native and denaturing conditions indicated that human recombinant PTX3 is mainly composed of covalently linked octamers. The network of disulfide bonds supporting this octameric assembly was resolved by mass spectrometry and Cys to Ser site-directed mutagenesis. Here we report that cysteine residues at positions 47, 49, and 103 in the N-terminal domain form three symmetric interchain disulfide bonds stabilizing four protein subunits in a tetrameric arrangement. Additional interchain disulfide bonds formed by the C-terminal domain cysteines Cys(317) and Cys(318) are responsible for linking the PTX3 tetramers into octamers. We also identified three intrachain disulfide bonds within the C-terminal domain that we used as structural constraints to build a new three-dimensional model for this domain. Previously it has been shown that PTX3 is a key component of the cumulus oophorus extracellular matrix, which forms around the oocyte prior to ovulation, because cumuli from PTX3(-/-) mice show defective matrix organization. Recombinant PTX3 is able to restore the normal phenotype ex vivo in cumuli from PTX3(-/-) mice. Here we demonstrate that PTX3 Cys to Ser mutants, mainly assembled into tetramers, exhibited wild type rescue activity, whereas a mutant, predominantly composed of dimers, had impaired functionality. These findings indicate that protein oligomerization is essential for PTX3 activity within the cumulus matrix and implicate PTX3 tetramers as the functional molecular units required for cumulus matrix organization and stabilization.

  5. Numerical Simulation of Chennai Heavy Rainfall Using MM5 Mesoscale Model with Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litta, A. J.; Chakrapani, B.; Mohankumar, K.

    2007-07-01

    Heavy rainfall events become significant in human affairs when they are combined with hydrological elements. The problem of forecasting heavy precipitation is especially difficult since it involves making a quantitative precipitation forecast, a problem well recognized as challenging. Chennai (13.04°N and 80.17°E) faced incessant and heavy rain about 27 cm in 24 hours up to 8.30 a.m on 27th October 2005 completely threw life out of gear. This torrential rain caused by deep depression which lay 150km east of Chennai city in Bay of Bengal intensified and moved west north-west direction and crossed north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast on 28th morning. In the present study, we investigate the predictability of the MM5 mesoscale model using different cumulus parameterization schemes for the heavy rainfall event over Chennai. MM5 Version 3.7 (PSU/NCAR) is run with two-way triply nested grids using Lambert Conformal Coordinates (LCC) with a nest ratio of 3:1 and 23 vertical layers. Grid sizes of 45, 15 and 5 km are used for domains 1, 2 and 3 respectively. The cumulus parameterization schemes used in this study are Anthes-Kuo scheme (AK), the Betts-Miller scheme (BM), the Grell scheme (GR) and the Kain-Fritsch scheme (KF). The present study shows that the prediction of heavy rainfall is sensitive to cumulus parameterization schemes. In the time series of rainfall, Grell scheme is in good agreement with observation. The ideal combination of the nesting domains, horizontal resolution and cloud parameterization is able to simulate the heavy rainfall event both qualitatively and quantitatively.

  6. Investigating the scale-adaptivity of a shallow cumulus parameterization scheme with LES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brast, Maren; Schemann, Vera; Neggers, Roel

    2017-04-01

    In this study we investigate the scale-adaptivity of a new parameterization scheme for shallow cumulus clouds in the gray zone. The Eddy-Diffusivity Multiple Mass-Flux (or ED(MF)n ) scheme is a bin-macrophysics scheme, in which subgrid transport is formulated in terms of discretized size densities. While scale-adaptivity in the ED-component is achieved using a pragmatic blending approach, the MF-component is filtered such that only the transport by plumes smaller than the grid size is maintained. For testing, ED(MF)n is implemented in a large-eddy simulation (LES) model, replacing the original subgrid-scheme for turbulent transport. LES thus plays the role of a non-hydrostatic testing ground, which can be run at different resolutions to study the behavior of the parameterization scheme in the boundary-layer gray zone. In this range convective cumulus clouds are partially resolved. We find that at high resolutions the clouds and the turbulent transport are predominantly resolved by the LES, and the transport represented by ED(MF)n is small. This partitioning changes towards coarser resolutions, with the representation of shallow cumulus clouds becoming exclusively carried by the ED(MF)n. The way the partitioning changes with grid-spacing matches the results of previous LES studies, suggesting some scale-adaptivity is captured. Sensitivity studies show that a scale-inadaptive ED component stays too active at high resolutions, and that the results are fairly insensitive to the number of transporting updrafts in the ED(MF)n scheme. Other assumptions in the scheme, such as the distribution of updrafts across sizes and the value of the area fraction covered by updrafts, are found to affect the location of the gray zone.

  7. Cumulus cells steroidogenesis is influenced by the degree of oocyte maturation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barboni Barbara

    2003-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The possibility to predict the ability of a germ cell to properly sustain embryo development in vitro or in vivo as early as possible is undoubtedly the main problem of reproductive technologies. To date, only the achievement of nuclear maturation and cumulus expansion is feasible, as all the studies on cytoplasmic maturation are too invasive and have been complicated by the death of the cells analyzed. The authors studied the possibility to test the cytoplasmic quality of pig oocytes by evaluating their ability to produce steroidogenesis enabling factor(s. To this aim, oocytes matured under different culture conditions that allowed to obtain gradable level of cytoplasmic maturation, were used to produce conditioned media (OCM. The secretion of the factor(s in conditioned media was then recorded by evaluating the ability of the spent media to direct granulosa cells (GC steroidogenesis. Methods In order to obtain germ cells characterized by a different degree of developmental competence, selected pig oocytes from prepubertal gilts ovaries were cultured under different IVM protocols; part of the matured oocytes were used to produce OCM, while those remaining were submitted to in vitro fertilization trials to confirm their ability to sustain male pronuclear decondensation. The OCM collected were finally used on cumulus cells grown as monolayers for 5 days. The demonstration that oocytes secreted factor(s can influence GC steroidogenesis in the pig was confirmed in our lab by studying E2 and P4 production by cumulus cells monolayers using a radioimmunoassay technique. Results Monolayers obtained by growing GC surrounding the oocytes for five days represent a tool, which is practical, stable and available in most laboratories; by using this bioassay, we detected the antiluteal effect of immature oocytes, and for the first time, demonstrated that properly matured germ cells are able to direct cumulus cells steroidogenesis by

  8. Detection of RUNX2 gene expression in cumulus cells in women undergoing controlled ovarian stimulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Papamentzelopoulou Myrto

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background RUNX2 is a transcription factor, whose expression has been recently identified in the mouse ovary. Regulation of RUNX2 expression and its function in the human ovary have not been determined yet. The aim of the present study is the investigation of the possible correlation between RUNX2 gene expression in cumulus cells and controlled ovarian stimulation and pregnancy outcomes after ART treatment. Methods A total of 41 patients undergoing ICSI treatment for male factor infertility were enrolled into a specific ART program, during which cumulus cells were collected. The expression of RUNX2 gene in cumulus cells was examined by real-time PCR. Results Concerning RUNX2 gene expression, 12 out of 41 women were detected with RUNX2 expression, with ratios ranging from 0.84 to 1.00, while 28 out of 41 women had no expression (ratio = 0. Only 1 woman presented a weak RUNX2 gene expression (ratio = 0.52. From 8 women that proceeded to pregnancy, 7 of them did not express RUNX2 gene in cumulus cells, while one was the woman with weak gene expression that also achieved pregnancy. The group of women without RUNX2 expression presented higher number of follicles (p = 0.013, higher number of retrieved oocytes (p = 0.016, higher basal LH serum levels (p = 0.016 and higher peak estradiol levels (p = 0.013, while the number of fertilized oocytes differed marginally between the two groups (p = 0.089. Moreover, RUNX2 expression was negatively associated with LH levels (OR = 0.22, p = 0.021 and E2 levels (OR = 0.25, p = 0.026. Conclusions Consequently, based on the preliminary findings of the present pilot study a potential inhibitory mechanism of RUNX2 gene is observed in the ovary when high mRNA levels are detected, suggesting that RUNX2 could possibly be used as a candidate genetic marker in the monitoring of the outcome of an ART treatment.

  9. Sensitivity of PBL and Cumulus schemes for Thunderstorm prediction over an Indian Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Dinesh; Charan Mohanty, Uma; Kumar, Krishan

    2015-04-01

    The cloud processes play an important role in all forms of precipitation. Its proper representation is one of the challenging tasks in mesoscale numerical simulation. Studies have revealed that mesoscale feature require proper initialization which may likely to improve the convective system rainfall forecasts. Understanding the precipitation process, model initial condition accuracy and resolved/sub grid-scale precipitation processes representation, are the important areas which needed to improve in order to represent the mesoscale features properly. Various attempts have been done in order to improve the model performance through grid resolution, physical parameterizations, etc. But it is the physical parameterizations which provide a convective atmosphere for the development and intensification of convective events. Further, physical parameterizations consist of cumulus convection, surface fluxes of heat, moisture, momentum, and vertical mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). How PBL and Cumulus schemes capture the evolution of thunderstorm have been analysed by taking thunderstorm cases occurred over Kolkata, India in the year 2011. PBL and cumulus schemes were customized for WSM-6 microphysics because WSM series has been widely used in operational forecast. Results have shown that KF (PBL scheme) and WSM-6 (Cumulus Scheme) have reproduced the evolution of surface variable such as CAPE, temperature and rainfall very much like observation. Further, KF and WSM-6 scheme also provided the increased moisture availability in the lower atmosphere which was taken to higher level by strong vertical velocities providing a platform to initiate a thunderstorm much better. Overestimation of rain in WSM-6 occurs primarily because of occurrence of melting and freezing process within a deeper layer in WSM-6 scheme. These Schemes have reproduced the spatial pattern and peak rainfall coverage closer to TRMM observation. It is the the combination of WSM-6, and KF schemes

  10. A case study of cumulus formation beneath a stratocumulus sheet: Its structure and effect on boundary layer budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Roy W.; Nicholls, S.

    1990-01-01

    On several occasions during the FIRE Marine Stratocumulus IFO off the California coast, small cumulus were observed to form during the morning beneath the main stratocumulus (Sc) deck. This occurs in the type of situation described by Turton and Nicholls (1987) in which there is insufficient generation of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) from the cloudtop or the surface to sustain mixing throughout the layer, and a separation of the surface and cloud layers occurs. The build up of humidity in the surface layer allows cumuli to form, and the more energetic of these may penetrate back into the Sc deck, reconnecting the layers. The results presented were collected by the UKMO C-130 aircraft flying in a region where these small cumulus had grown to the extent that they had penetrated into the main Sc deck above. The structure of these penetrative cumulus are examined and their implications on the layer flux and radiation budget discussed.

  11. Role of Fas-Mediated Apoptosis and Follicle-Stimulating Hormone on the Developmental Capacity of Bovine Cumulus Oocyte Complexes in Vitro

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pomar, F.J.; Roelen, B.A.J.; Slot, K.A.; Tol, van H.T.A.; Colenbrander, B.; Teerds, K.J.

    2004-01-01

    Follicular atresia is believed to be largely regulated by apoptosis. To further understand how apoptosis can affect cumulus cells and oocytes we have evaluated the incidence and regulation of apoptosis affecting bovine cumulus oocyte complexes in vitro. Expression of components of the Fas signaling

  12. Classical and Quantum Ensembles via Multiresolution. II. Wigner Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Fedorova, A N; Fedorova, Antonina N.; Zeitlin, Michael G.

    2004-01-01

    We present the application of the variational-wavelet analysis to the analysis of quantum ensembles in Wigner framework. (Naive) deformation quantization, the multiresolution representations and the variational approach are the key points. We construct the solutions of Wigner-like equations via the multiscale expansions in the generalized coherent states or high-localized nonlinear eigenmodes in the base of the compactly supported wavelets and the wavelet packets. We demonstrate the appearance of (stable) localized patterns (waveletons) and consider entanglement and decoherence as possible applications.

  13. Ensembles

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    Licence; En 1935, un groupe de mathématiciens français eut l'ambition de reconstruire tout l'édifice mathématique (sans S pour bien montrer l'unité) selon la pensée formaliste de Hilbert. Les membres fondateurs ont été Henri Cartan, Claude Chevalley, Jean Delsarte, Jean Dieudonné, André Weil auxquels se joindra René de Possel. En juillet 1935 fut donc créé, lors d'un séminaire en Auvergne le groupe 'Nicolas Bourbaki'. Le nom de cette association fait référence en fait à une anecdote qui se pa...

  14. Multi-ensemble regional simulation of Indian monsoon during contrasting rainfall years: role of convective schemes and nested domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devanand, Anjana; Ghosh, Subimal; Paul, Supantha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Niyogi, Dev

    2017-08-01

    Regional simulations of the seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) require an understanding of the model sensitivities to physics and resolution, and its effect on the model uncertainties. It is also important to quantify the added value in the simulated sub-regional precipitation characteristics by a regional climate model (RCM), when compared to coarse resolution rainfall products. This study presents regional model simulations of ISMR at seasonal scale using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the synoptic scale forcing from ERA-interim reanalysis, for three contrasting monsoon seasons, 1994 (excess), 2002 (deficit) and 2010 (normal). Impact of four cumulus schemes, viz., Kain-Fritsch (KF), Betts-Janjić-Miller, Grell 3D and modified Kain-Fritsch (KFm), and two micro physical parameterization schemes, viz., WRF Single Moment Class 5 scheme and Lin et al. scheme (LIN), with eight different possible combinations are analyzed. The impact of spectral nudging on model sensitivity is also studied. In WRF simulations using spectral nudging, improvement in model rainfall appears to be consistent in regions with topographic variability such as Central Northeast and Konkan Western Ghat sub-regions. However the results are also dependent on choice of cumulus scheme used, with KF and KFm providing relatively good performance and the eight member ensemble mean showing better results for these sub-regions. There is no consistent improvement noted in Northeast and Peninsular Indian monsoon regions. Results indicate that the regional simulations using nested domains can provide some improvements on ISMR simulations. Spectral nudging is found to improve upon the model simulations in terms of reducing the intra ensemble spread and hence the uncertainty in the model simulated precipitation. The results provide important insights regarding the need for further improvements in the regional climate simulations of ISMR for various sub-regions and contribute

  15. Low chronic ethanol consumption affects ovulation and PGE synthesis by the cumulus cell masses in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cebral, E; Motta, A; de Gimeno, M F

    1999-02-01

    Central and gonadal function can be affected by chronic consumption of high and moderate doses of ethanol. Few studies have been conducted to determine the effect of ethanol intake at ovarian and gamete level. Previously, we showed that fertilization rates of low chronic ethanol treated female mice were diminished. Also, our recent results indicated that moderate chronic intake of ethanol by immature females could alter the ovulatory quantity and produce morphological alterations in the superovulated oocytes. Furthermore, PGE production by oocyte cumulus complexes (OCCs) was reduced in the females treated with 10% (w/v) ethanol. In the present investigation, we studied the effects of 5% ethanol treatment given to immature mice for 30 days on the quality and quantity of oocytes superovulated at 16 h posthuman chronic gonadotrophin. Treated females had impaired ovulation rates (P < 0.05) as compared to the controls. The percentage of activated and morphologically abnormal oocytes was elevated in the ethanol-treated females (P < 0.05). PGE synthesis by the OCCs was higher than in the controls (P < 0.01). In summary, the administration of long-term ethanol at a relatively low dose to immature females produces decreased ovulation rates, abnormal oocyte morphology with high spontaneous activation and altered levels of PGE production by the oocytes' cumulus complexes. The relationship between the oocyte quality and abnormal synthesis of PGE is discussed.

  16. Project Overview: Cumulus Humilis Aerosol Processing Study (CHAPS): Proposed Summer 2007 ASP Field Campaign

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berkowitz, Carl M.; Berg, Larry K.; Ogren, J. A.; Hostetler, Chris A.; Ferrare, Richard

    2006-05-18

    This white paper presents the scientific motivation and preliminary logistical plans for a proposed ASP field campaign to be carried out in the summer of 2007. The primary objective of this campaign is to use the DOE Gulfstream-1 aircraft to make measurements characterizing the chemical, physical and optical properties of aerosols below, within and above large fields of fair weather cumulus and to use the NASA Langley Research Center’s High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) to make independent measurements of aerosol backscatter and extinction profiles in the vicinity of these fields. Separate from the science questions to be addressed by these observations will be information to add in the development of a parameterized cumulus scheme capable of including multiple cloud fields within a regional or global scale model. We will also be able to compare and contrast the cloud and aerosol properties within and outside the Oklahoma City plume to study aerosol processes within individual clouds. Preliminary discussions with the Cloud and Land Surface Interaction Campaign (CLASIC) science team have identified overlap between the science questions posed for the CLASIC Intensive Operation Period (IOP) and the proposed ASP campaign, suggesting collaboration would benefit both teams.

  17. Laboratory simulations show diabatic heating drives cumulus-cloud evolution and entrainment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimha, Roddam; Diwan, Sourabh Suhas; Duvvuri, Subrahmanyam; Sreenivas, K R; Bhat, G S

    2011-09-27

    Clouds are the largest source of uncertainty in climate science, and remain a weak link in modeling tropical circulation. A major challenge is to establish connections between particulate microphysics and macroscale turbulent dynamics in cumulus clouds. Here we address the issue from the latter standpoint. First we show how to create bench-scale flows that reproduce a variety of cumulus-cloud forms (including two genera and three species), and track complete cloud life cycles--e.g., from a "cauliflower" congestus to a dissipating fractus. The flow model used is a transient plume with volumetric diabatic heating scaled dynamically to simulate latent-heat release from phase changes in clouds. Laser-based diagnostics of steady plumes reveal Riehl-Malkus type protected cores. They also show that, unlike the constancy implied by early self-similar plume models, the diabatic heating raises the Taylor entrainment coefficient just above cloud base, depressing it at higher levels. This behavior is consistent with cloud-dilution rates found in recent numerical simulations of steady deep convection, and with aircraft-based observations of homogeneous mixing in clouds. In-cloud diabatic heating thus emerges as the key driver in cloud development, and could well provide a major link between microphysics and cloud-scale dynamics.

  18. Observations of sulfur dioxide uptake and new particle formation in a midlatitude cumulus cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, J. R.; Siems, S. T.; Jensen, J. B.; Gras, J. L.; Ishizaka, Y.; Hacker, J. M.

    2006-08-01

    Airborne measurements, obtained during the Asian Aerosol Characterisation Experiment (ACE-Asia), of SO2 and condensation nuclei (CN) concentrations were made in the local environment of a cumulus cloud band. Conserved quantities, wet equivalent potential temperature θq, and total water content Q, were used to identify the sources of air detrained on the downwind side of the cumulus band. It was found that ~65% of the detrained air originated from below cloud base and the remainder was air that had been entrained from the free troposphere upwind of the cloud and subsequently been detrained. Calculation of the sources of the detrained air parcels enabled a prediction of the concentration of SO2 and CN, assuming that SO2 and CN experienced no processing within cloud. A comparison of the predicted concentration of SO2 and CN was made with those observed. The concentration of SO2 observed was less than predicted and the amount of SO2 scavenged within cloud was calculated. The CN concentration observed was also less than predicted and, moreover, inclusion of the loss of CN to cloud droplets due to Brownian scavenging resulted in an enhanced decrease of the number concentration of CN predicted. Clear air regions around the cloud exhibited no indication of being a major source of new particles. It was concluded that new particles were formed within cloud.

  19. Analysis of mesoscale forecasts using ensemble methods

    CERN Document Server

    Gross, Markus

    2016-01-01

    Mesoscale forecasts are now routinely performed as elements of operational forecasts and their outputs do appear convincing. However, despite their realistic appearance at times the comparison to observations is less favorable. At the grid scale these forecasts often do not compare well with observations. This is partly due to the chaotic system underlying the weather. Another key problem is that it is impossible to evaluate the risk of making decisions based on these forecasts because they do not provide a measure of confidence. Ensembles provide this information in the ensemble spread and quartiles. However, running global ensembles at the meso or sub mesoscale involves substantial computational resources. National centers do run such ensembles, but the subject of this publication is a method which requires significantly less computation. The ensemble enhanced mesoscale system presented here aims not at the creation of an improved mesoscale forecast model. Also it is not to create an improved ensemble syste...

  20. Measuring social interaction in music ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Gualtiero; D'Ausilio, Alessandro; Badino, Leonardo; Camurri, Antonio; Fadiga, Luciano

    2016-05-05

    Music ensembles are an ideal test-bed for quantitative analysis of social interaction. Music is an inherently social activity, and music ensembles offer a broad variety of scenarios which are particularly suitable for investigation. Small ensembles, such as string quartets, are deemed a significant example of self-managed teams, where all musicians contribute equally to a task. In bigger ensembles, such as orchestras, the relationship between a leader (the conductor) and a group of followers (the musicians) clearly emerges. This paper presents an overview of recent research on social interaction in music ensembles with a particular focus on (i) studies from cognitive neuroscience; and (ii) studies adopting a computational approach for carrying out automatic quantitative analysis of ensemble music performances.

  1. Gibbs Ensembles of Nonintersecting Paths

    CERN Document Server

    Borodin, Alexei

    2008-01-01

    We consider a family of determinantal random point processes on the two-dimensional lattice and prove that members of our family can be interpreted as a kind of Gibbs ensembles of nonintersecting paths. Examples include probability measures on lozenge and domino tilings of the plane, some of which are non-translation-invariant. The correlation kernels of our processes can be viewed as extensions of the discrete sine kernel, and we show that the Gibbs property is a consequence of simple linear relations satisfied by these kernels. The processes depend on infinitely many parameters, which are closely related to parametrization of totally positive Toeplitz matrices.

  2. Wind Power Prediction using Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, Gregor; Badger, Jake; Landberg, Lars

    2005-01-01

    offshore wind farm and the whole Jutland/Funen area. The utilities used these forecasts for maintenance planning, fuel consumption estimates and over-the-weekend trading on the Leipzig power exchange. Othernotable scientific results include the better accuracy of forecasts made up from a simple...... superposition of two NWP provider (in our case, DMI and DWD), an investigation of the merits of a parameterisation of the turbulent kinetic energy within thedelivered wind speed forecasts, and the finding that a “naïve” downscaling of each of the coarse ECMWF ensemble members with higher resolution HIRLAM did...

  3. Ensemble Methods Foundations and Algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Zhou, Zhi-Hua

    2012-01-01

    An up-to-date, self-contained introduction to a state-of-the-art machine learning approach, Ensemble Methods: Foundations and Algorithms shows how these accurate methods are used in real-world tasks. It gives you the necessary groundwork to carry out further research in this evolving field. After presenting background and terminology, the book covers the main algorithms and theories, including Boosting, Bagging, Random Forest, averaging and voting schemes, the Stacking method, mixture of experts, and diversity measures. It also discusses multiclass extension, noise tolerance, error-ambiguity a

  4. Quantum Repeaters and Atomic Ensembles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borregaard, Johannes

    a previous protocol, thereby enabling fast local processing, which greatly enhances the distribution rate. We then move on to describe our work on improving the stability of atomic clocks using entanglement. Entanglement can potentially push the stability of atomic clocks to the so-called Heisenberg limit......, which is the absolute upper limit of the stability allowed by the Heisenberg uncertainty relation. It has, however, been unclear whether entangled state’s enhanced sensitivity to noise would prevent reaching this limit. We have developed an adaptive measurement protocol, which circumvents this problem...... based on atomic ensembles....

  5. A Localized Ensemble Kalman Smoother

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butala, Mark D.

    2012-01-01

    Numerous geophysical inverse problems prove difficult because the available measurements are indirectly related to the underlying unknown dynamic state and the physics governing the system may involve imperfect models or unobserved parameters. Data assimilation addresses these difficulties by combining the measurements and physical knowledge. The main challenge in such problems usually involves their high dimensionality and the standard statistical methods prove computationally intractable. This paper develops and addresses the theoretical convergence of a new high-dimensional Monte-Carlo approach called the localized ensemble Kalman smoother.

  6. Heterogeneous versus Homogeneous Machine Learning Ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrakova Aleksandra

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The research demonstrates efficiency of the heterogeneous model ensemble application for a cancer diagnostic procedure. Machine learning methods used for the ensemble model training are neural networks, random forest, support vector machine and offspring selection genetic algorithm. Training of models and the ensemble design is performed by means of HeuristicLab software. The data used in the research have been provided by the General Hospital of Linz, Austria.

  7. Interpreting Tree Ensembles with inTrees

    OpenAIRE

    Deng, Houtao

    2014-01-01

    Tree ensembles such as random forests and boosted trees are accurate but difficult to understand, debug and deploy. In this work, we provide the inTrees (interpretable trees) framework that extracts, measures, prunes and selects rules from a tree ensemble, and calculates frequent variable interactions. An rule-based learner, referred to as the simplified tree ensemble learner (STEL), can also be formed and used for future prediction. The inTrees framework can applied to both classification an...

  8. Analysis of peeling decoder for MET ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Hinton, Ryan

    2009-01-01

    The peeling decoder introduced by Luby, et al. allows analysis of LDPC decoding for the binary erasure channel (BEC). For irregular ensembles, they analyze the decoder state as a Markov process and present a solution to the differential equations describing the process mean. Multi-edge type (MET) ensembles allow greater precision through specifying graph connectivity. We generalize the the peeling decoder for MET ensembles and derive analogous differential equations. We offer a new change of variables and solution to the node fraction evolutions in the general (MET) case. This result is preparatory to investigating finite-length ensemble behavior.

  9. Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Kalman Filtering

    CERN Document Server

    Tsyrulnikov, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), when applied to high-dimensional systems, suffers from an inevitably small affordable ensemble size, which results in poor estimates of the background error covariance matrix ${\\bf B}$. The common remedy is a kind of regularization, usually an ad-hoc spatial covariance localization (tapering) combined with artificial covariance inflation. Instead of using an ad-hoc regularization, we adopt the idea by Myrseth and Omre (2010) and explicitly admit that the ${\\bf B}$ matrix is unknown and random and estimate it along with the state (${\\bf x}$) in an optimal hierarchical Bayes analysis scheme. We separate forecast errors into predictability errors (i.e. forecast errors due to uncertainties in the initial data) and model errors (forecast errors due to imperfections in the forecast model) and include the two respective components ${\\bf P}$ and ${\\bf Q}$ of the ${\\bf B}$ matrix into the extended control vector $({\\bf x},{\\bf P},{\\bf Q})$. Similarly, we break the traditional backgrou...

  10. Visualizing ensembles in structural biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, Ryan L; Salsbury, Freddie R

    2016-06-01

    Displaying a single representative conformation of a biopolymer rather than an ensemble of states mistakenly conveys a static nature rather than the actual dynamic personality of biopolymers. However, there are few apparent options due to the fixed nature of print media. Here we suggest a standardized methodology for visually indicating the distribution width, standard deviation and uncertainty of ensembles of states with little loss of the visual simplicity of displaying a single representative conformation. Of particular note is that the visualization method employed clearly distinguishes between isotropic and anisotropic motion of polymer subunits. We also apply this method to ligand binding, suggesting a way to indicate the expected error in many high throughput docking programs when visualizing the structural spread of the output. We provide several examples in the context of nucleic acids and proteins with particular insights gained via this method. Such examples include investigating a therapeutic polymer of FdUMP (5-fluoro-2-deoxyuridine-5-O-monophosphate) - a topoisomerase-1 (Top1), apoptosis-inducing poison - and nucleotide-binding proteins responsible for ATP hydrolysis from Bacillus subtilis. We also discuss how these methods can be extended to any macromolecular data set with an underlying distribution, including experimental data such as NMR structures.

  11. Specific genes are selectively expressed between cumulus and granulosa cells from individual human pre-ovulatory follicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grøndahl, M L; Andersen, C Yding; Bogstad, J;

    2012-01-01

    During folliculogenesis the granulosa cells differentiate into two cell types: Cumulus cells (CC) and mural granulosa cells (MGC). The objective of the study was to generate and compare the transcriptomes of MGC and CC from the pre-ovulatory follicle to characterize the detailed profile of the two...

  12. 76 FR 56797 - United States v. Cumulus Media Inc., et al.; Proposed Final Judgment and Competitive Impact...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-14

    ... decline as a result of the transaction. Cumulus must divest: WRSR, WCAT, and the Federal Communications... is required to determine not whether a particular decree is the one that will best serve society, but.... Gillette Co., 406 F. Supp. 713, 716 (D. Mass. 1975) (noting that, in this way, the court is constrained...

  13. The apoptotic profile of human cumulus cells changes with patient age and after exposure to sperm but not in relation to oocyte maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffatt, Odette; Drury, Sarah; Tomlinson, Matthew; Afnan, Masoud; Sakkas, Denny

    2002-05-01

    To determine the expression of apoptosis-associated molecules on cumulus cells removed from individual oocytes of different maturity, inseminated oocytes and to investigate the possibility of an age-dependent expression. Analysis of apoptosis in cumulus cells isolated from oocytes of different stages of maturity. Assisted reproductive technology program of the Birmingham Women's Hospital, Birmingham, UK. Patients undergoing intracytoplasmic sperm injection or IVF cycles. Percentage of positive cumulus cells when assessed for nuclear DNA damage using the terminal deoxyuridine nucleotide end-labeling assay or stained with antibodies [Fas, Fas ligand, the antiapoptotic protein Bcl-xl, and the RNA-binding protein (TIAR)]. Cumulus cells collected from mature oocytes showed no significant difference in the percentage of apoptotic markers compared to those recovered from immature oocytes, whereas those from patients >/=38 years differed significantly. When cumulus cells were exposed to sperm the levels of apoptotic markers altered significantly from those not exposed to sperm. The results show that the cumulus cells of human oocytes are equipped with a mechanism to undergo apoptosis and that patient age and the exposure of cumulus cells to sperm can alter their profiles of apoptotic markers.

  14. Inhibitors of zinc-dependent metalloproteases hinder sperm passage through the cumulus oophorus during porcine fertilization in vitro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beek, J; Nauwynck, H; Maes, D; Van Soom, A

    2012-12-01

    In this study, we report for the first time on a possible contribution of metalloproteases in sperm passage through the cumulus matrix in pigs. The presence of 20 μM 1,10-phenanthroline (1,10-PHEN), inhibitor of zinc-dependent metalloproteases, strongly inhibited the degree of sperm penetration in cumulus-intact (CI), but not in cumulus-free (CF), porcine oocytes during IVF. The inhibitory effect of 1,10-PHEN was due to the chelation of metal ions as a non-chelating analog (1,7-PHEN) did not affect IVF rates. Furthermore, incubation with 1,10-PHEN did not affect sperm binding to the zona pellucida nor sperm motility, membrane integrity, or acrosomal status. These findings led to the assumption that 1,10-PHEN interacts with a sperm- or cumulus-derived metalloprotease. Metalloproteases are key players in physiological processes involving degradation or remodeling of extracellular matrix. In vivo, their proteolytic activity is regulated by tissue inhibitors of metalloproteases (TIMP1-TIMP4). We tested the effect of TIMP3 on fertilization parameters after porcine IVF. Similar to 1,10-PHEN, TIMP3 inhibited total fertilization rate of CI but not CF oocytes and did not influence sperm quality parameters. Although the inhibitory effect was stronger in CI oocytes, TIMP3 also reduced the degree of sperm penetration in CF oocytes, suggesting the involvement of a metalloprotease in a subsequent step during fertilization. In conclusion, our results indicate the involvement of TIMP3-sensitive, zinc-dependent metalloprotease activity in sperm passage through the cumulus oophorus in pigs. The results should provide the basis for further biochemical research toward the localization and identification of the metalloprotease involved.

  15. Improved customer choice predictions using ensemble methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C. van Wezel (Michiel); R. Potharst (Rob)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper various ensemble learning methods from machine learning and statistics are considered and applied to the customer choice modeling problem. The application of ensemble learning usually improves the prediction quality of flexible models like decision trees and thus leads to

  16. Layered Ensemble Architecture for Time Series Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md Mustafizur; Islam, Md Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki; Yao, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Time series forecasting (TSF) has been widely used in many application areas such as science, engineering, and finance. The phenomena generating time series are usually unknown and information available for forecasting is only limited to the past values of the series. It is, therefore, necessary to use an appropriate number of past values, termed lag, for forecasting. This paper proposes a layered ensemble architecture (LEA) for TSF problems. Our LEA consists of two layers, each of which uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. While the first ensemble layer tries to find an appropriate lag, the second ensemble layer employs the obtained lag for forecasting. Unlike most previous work on TSF, the proposed architecture considers both accuracy and diversity of the individual networks in constructing an ensemble. LEA trains different networks in the ensemble by using different training sets with an aim of maintaining diversity among the networks. However, it uses the appropriate lag and combines the best trained networks to construct the ensemble. This indicates LEAs emphasis on accuracy of the networks. The proposed architecture has been tested extensively on time series data of neural network (NN)3 and NN5 competitions. It has also been tested on several standard benchmark time series data. In terms of forecasting accuracy, our experimental results have revealed clearly that LEA is better than other ensemble and nonensemble methods.

  17. Ensemble methods for handwritten digit recognition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai; Liisberg, Christian; Salamon, P.

    1992-01-01

    . It is further shown that it is possible to estimate the ensemble performance as well as the learning curve on a medium-size database. In addition the authors present preliminary analysis of experiments on a large database and show that state-of-the-art performance can be obtained using the ensemble approach...

  18. Nonextensivity in magnetic nanoparticle ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binek, Ch.; Polisetty, S.; He, Xi; Mukherjee, T.; Rajesh, R.; Redepenning, J.

    2006-08-01

    A superconducting quantum interference device and Faraday rotation technique are used to study dipolar interacting nanoparticles embedded in a polystyrene matrix. Magnetization isotherms are measured for three cylindrically shaped samples of constant diameter but various heights. Detailed analysis of the isotherms supports Tsallis’ conjecture of a magnetic equation of state that involves temperature and magnetic field variables scaled by the logarithm of the number of magnetic nanoparticles. This unusual scaling of thermodynamic variables, which are conventionally considered to be intensive, originates from the nonextensivity of the Gibbs free energy in three-dimensional dipolar interacting particle ensembles. Our experimental evidence for nonextensivity is based on the data collapse of various isotherms that require scaling of the field variable in accordance with Tsallis’ equation of state.

  19. Large-eddy simulation of organized precipitating trade wind cumulus clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Seifert

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Trade wind cumulus clouds often organize in along-wind cloud streets and across-wind mesoscale arcs. We present a benchmark large-eddy simulation which resolves the individual clouds as well as the mesoscale organization on scales of O(10 km. Different methods to quantify organization of cloud fields are applied and discussed. Using perturbed physics large-eddy simulations experiments the processes leading to the formation of cloud clusters and the mesoscale arcs are revealed. We find that both cold pools as well as the sub-cloud layer moisture field are crucial to understand the organization of precipitating shallow convection. Further sensitivity studies show that microphysical assumptions can have a pronounced impact on the onset of cloud organization.

  20. Grading of Mammalian Cumulus Oocyte Complexes using Machine Learning for in Vitro Embryo Culture

    CERN Document Server

    Sudarshan, Viswanath P; Chintala, Phalgun; Mandal, Subhamoy; Dutta, Rahul

    2016-01-01

    Visual observation of Cumulus Oocyte Complexes provides only limited information about its functional competence, whereas the molecular evaluations methods are cumbersome or costly. Image analysis of mammalian oocytes can provide attractive alternative to address this challenge. However, it is complex, given the huge number of oocytes under inspection and the subjective nature of the features inspected for identification. Supervised machine learning methods like random forest with annotations from expert biologists can make the analysis task standardized and reduces inter-subject variability. We present a semi-automatic framework for predicting the class an oocyte belongs to, based on multi-object parametric segmentation on the acquired microscopic image followed by a feature based classification using random forests.

  1. Derivation of Cumulus Cloud Dimensions and Shape from the Airborne Measurements by the Research Scanning Polarimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrov, Mikhail D.; Cairns, Brian; Emde, Claudia; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Ottaviani, Matteo; Wasilewski, Andrzej P.

    2016-01-01

    The Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) is an airborne instrument, whose measurements have been extensively used for retrievals of microphysical properties of clouds. In this study we show that for cumulus clouds the information content of the RSP data can be extended by adding the macroscopic parameters of the cloud, such as its geometric shape, dimensions, and height above the ground. This extension is possible by virtue of the high angular resolution and high frequency of the RSP measurements, which allow for geometric constraint of the cloud's 2D cross section between a number of tangent lines of view. The retrieval method is tested on realistic 3D radiative transfer simulations and applied to actual RSP data.

  2. Clustering, randomness and regularity in cloud fields. I - Theoretical considerations. II - Cumulus cloud fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weger, R. C.; Lee, J.; Zhu, Tianri; Welch, R. M.

    1992-01-01

    The current controversy existing in reference to the regularity vs. clustering in cloud fields is examined by means of analysis and simulation studies based upon nearest-neighbor cumulative distribution statistics. It is shown that the Poisson representation of random point processes is superior to pseudorandom-number-generated models and that pseudorandom-number-generated models bias the observed nearest-neighbor statistics towards regularity. Interpretation of this nearest-neighbor statistics is discussed for many cases of superpositions of clustering, randomness, and regularity. A detailed analysis is carried out of cumulus cloud field spatial distributions based upon Landsat, AVHRR, and Skylab data, showing that, when both large and small clouds are included in the cloud field distributions, the cloud field always has a strong clustering signal.

  3. Pre-Cumulus zoning, Residual Porosity, and Impermeable Barriers in Igneous Cumulates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, S. A.

    2009-12-01

    As Maaløe noted in 1976 the basal Skaergaard cumulates commonly contain plagioclase crystals with zoning and resorption that preceded their accumulation on the floor. This conclusion follows from the observation that neighboring grains are unassociated with each other in their zoning. Such crystals, he reasoned, have been tossed about from cooler to hotter regimes in a way that we might call a hailstone history. By contrast, associated grains zoned from trapped liquid have a common junction, easily signaled in troctolites by a scrap of augite or opaque oxide. In a compilation of the An-range (max - min) in Kiglapait grain mounts, samples sorted by increasing values when examined reveal a dominance of unassociated pre-cumulus grains up to values of 5.5 to 7.5 (median 6.65) mole % in the An range, beyond which increasing evidence for intercumulus growth sets in. The pre-cumulus samples occur among other types in stratigraphic levels from 10 to 83 PCS and include rare samples with cumulus augite. A conservative threshold for intercumulus growth is taken as 6 mole %, above which the An-range minus 6 defines residual porosity p(r) >0 (Morse, AGU JA Abstr. 2009). In the presence of pre-cumulus zoning, the threshold criterion for adcumulus growth rises even higher, for example to An range 8 or even 9 mole %, allowing for the fact that even imperfect adcumulates have had a major amount of isothermal adcumulus growth before or after trapping a small amount of residual liquid. At the conservative end of this range, 75 % of the Kiglapait cumulates are practical adcumulates, 17 % are mesocumulates, and 8% are orthocumulates, the latter dominating both lowermost and highest parts of the stratigraphy. From this intrusion-wide distribution, the overall probability that a given rock sample is an adcumulate is 0.75. But the scarcity of mesocumulates in the LZ above 30 PCS and in the UZ from 95 to 99.9 PCS means that the probability of finding an adcumulate is much greater

  4. Analysis of spatial inhomogeneities in cumulus clouds using high spatial resolution Landsat data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Lindsay; Welch, R. M.; Musil, D. J.

    1986-01-01

    Aircraft observations and high resolution Landsat MSS digital data are used to determine the sizes of spatial inhomogeneities ('holes') in cumulus clouds. The majority of holes are found near cloud edges, but the larger holes tend to be found in cloud interiors. Aircraft measurements show these cloud spatial inhomogeneities in the range of 100 to 500 m, while Landsat data show them in the range of 100 m to 3 km. The number of holes per cloud decreases exponentially with increasing hole diameter. Small clouds not only have smaller holes, but also fewer holes than large clouds. Large clouds have large holes in them, as well as large numbers of the smaller holes. The total cloud area occupied by holes increases with increasing cloud size.

  5. Derivation of Cumulus Cloud Dimensions and Shape from the Airborne Measurements by the Research Scanning Polarimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrov, Mikhail D.; Cairns, Brian; Emde, Claudia; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Ottaviani, Matteo; Wasilewski, Andrzej P.

    2016-01-01

    The Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) is an airborne instrument, whose measurements have been extensively used for retrievals of microphysical properties of clouds. In this study we show that for cumulus clouds the information content of the RSP data can be extended by adding the macroscopic parameters of the cloud, such as its geometric shape, dimensions, and height above the ground. This extension is possible by virtue of the high angular resolution and high frequency of the RSP measurements, which allow for geometric constraint of the cloud's 2D cross section between a number of tangent lines of view. The retrieval method is tested on realistic 3D radiative transfer simulations and applied to actual RSP data.

  6. Perception of ensemble statistics requires attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson-Nielsen, Molly; Cohen, Michael A; Pitts, Michael A

    2017-02-01

    To overcome inherent limitations in perceptual bandwidth, many aspects of the visual world are represented as summary statistics (e.g., average size, orientation, or density of objects). Here, we investigated the relationship between summary (ensemble) statistics and visual attention. Recently, it was claimed that one ensemble statistic in particular, color diversity, can be perceived without focal attention. However, a broader debate exists over the attentional requirements of conscious perception, and it is possible that some form of attention is necessary for ensemble perception. To test this idea, we employed a modified inattentional blindness paradigm and found that multiple types of summary statistics (color and size) often go unnoticed without attention. In addition, we found attentional costs in dual-task situations, further implicating a role for attention in statistical perception. Overall, we conclude that while visual ensembles may be processed efficiently, some amount of attention is necessary for conscious perception of ensemble statistics.

  7. Popular Ensemble Methods: An Empirical Study

    CERN Document Server

    Maclin, R; 10.1613/jair.614

    2011-01-01

    An ensemble consists of a set of individually trained classifiers (such as neural networks or decision trees) whose predictions are combined when classifying novel instances. Previous research has shown that an ensemble is often more accurate than any of the single classifiers in the ensemble. Bagging (Breiman, 1996c) and Boosting (Freund and Shapire, 1996; Shapire, 1990) are two relatively new but popular methods for producing ensembles. In this paper we evaluate these methods on 23 data sets using both neural networks and decision trees as our classification algorithm. Our results clearly indicate a number of conclusions. First, while Bagging is almost always more accurate than a single classifier, it is sometimes much less accurate than Boosting. On the other hand, Boosting can create ensembles that are less accurate than a single classifier -- especially when using neural networks. Analysis indicates that the performance of the Boosting methods is dependent on the characteristics of the data set being exa...

  8. Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dynamic ensemble copula coupling approach

    CERN Document Server

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben; Theis, Susanne E; Pinson, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when statistical calibration of the ensemble forecasts is applied for each lead time and location independently. Non-parametric approaches allow the reconstruction of spatio-temporal joint probability distributions at a low computational cost.For example, the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) method consists in rebuilding the multivariate aspect of the forecast from the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new approach which preserves the dynamical development of the ensemble members is called dynamic ensemble copula coupling (...

  9. Dynamics, thermodynamics, radiation, and cloudiness associated with cumulus-topped marine boundary layers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghate, Virendra P. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Miller, Mark [Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The overall goal of this project was to improve the understanding of marine boundary clouds by using data collected at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites, so that they can be better represented in global climate models (GCMs). Marine boundary clouds are observed regularly over the tropical and subtropical oceans. They are an important element of the Earth’s climate system because they have substantial impact on the radiation budget together with the boundary layer moisture, and energy transports. These clouds also have an impact on large-scale precipitation features like the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Because these clouds occur at temporal and spatial scales much smaller than those relevant to GCMs, their effects and the associated processes need to be parameterized in GCM simulations aimed at predicting future climate and energy needs. Specifically, this project’s objectives were to (1) characterize the surface turbulent fluxes, boundary layer thermodynamics, radiation field, and cloudiness associated with cumulus-topped marine boundary layers; (2) explore the similarities and differences in cloudiness and boundary layer conditions observed in the tropical and trade-wind regions; and (3) understand similarities and differences by using a simple bulk boundary layer model. In addition to working toward achieving the project’s three objectives, we also worked on understanding the role played by different forcing mechanisms in maintaining turbulence within cloud-topped boundary layers We focused our research on stratocumulus clouds during the first phase of the project, and cumulus clouds during the rest of the project. Below is a brief description of manuscripts published in peer-reviewed journals that describe results from our analyses.

  10. Entrainment rates at the tops of laboratory analogs of cumulus and stratocumulus clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Górska, Anna; Malinowski, Szymon P.; Fugal, Jacob

    2015-04-01

    We investigate entrainment at tops of laboratory analogs of convective clouds: cumulus and stratocumulus. Cloudy saturated moist air (T ~22 °C) containing droplets of diameters of ~3-10 μm, is introduced into a laboratory cloud chamber of dimensions of 1.0×1.0×1.8 through an opening in the bottom wall. Initialy cloudy air fills ~60 cm thick layer at the bottom. Mixing between the cloud and unsaturated air above (T ~22 °C, RH ~35 %) results in evaporative cooling triggering convection which, in turn, leads to formation of a well mixed layer capperd with a temperature inversion. The temperature jump is about 2 °C within ~30 cm deep layer. Then updrafts are forced through a 30cm high tube extending from the bottom of the chamber. "Strong' updrafts which penetrate the whole inversion layer mimic overshooting cumulus clouds while "weak' updrafts diverging under the inversion simulate stratocumulus clouds. We use a laser sheet technique to image two-dimensional cross sections through the clouds. A specially developed mutiscale Particle Image Velicimetry (PIV) algorithm allows to retrieve 2D velocity fields. Suitable image processing allows to determine cloud-clear air interface in the images. Extracting velocities of cloudy (ui) and environmental (ua) air on both sides of the interface allows us calculate entrainment / detrainment rates: E = -ρa(ua - ui) - entrainment rate D = ρa(ua - ui) - detrainment rate. On the poster we will present fine structures of entraimnet/dertaiment process and discuss similarities and differences in both investigated types of clouds.

  11. Improving Forecasts of Cumulus: An Intersection of the Renewable Energy and Climate Science Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, L. K.; Gustafson, W. I., Jr.; Kassianov, E.; Long, C. N.

    2015-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of broken cloud fields and their associated impact on the downwelling solar irradiance has remained a challenge to the renewable energy industry. Likewise, shallow cumulus play an important role in the Earth's radiation budget and hydrologic cycle and are of interest to the weather forecasting and climate science communities. The main challenge associated with predicting these clouds are their relatively small size (on the order of a kilometer or less) relative to the model grid spacing. Recently, however, there have been significant efforts put into improving forecasts of shallow clouds and the associated temporal and spatial variability of the solar irradiance that they induce. As an example of these efforts, we will describe recent modifications to the standard Kain-Fritsch parameterization as applied within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that are designed to improve predictions of the macroscale and microscale structure of shallow cumulus. These modifications are shown to lead to a realistic increase in the simulated cloud fraction and associated decrease in the solar irradiance. We will evaluate our results using data collected at the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site, which is located in north-central Oklahoma. Our team has analyzed over 5 years of data collected at this site to document the macroscale structure of the clouds (including cloud fraction, cloud-base and cloud-top height) as well as their impact on the downwelling shortwave and longwave irradiance. One particularly interesting impact of shallow cumuli is the enhancement of the diffuse radiation, such that during periods in which the sun is not blocked, the observed irradiance can be significantly larger than the corresponding clear sky case. To date, this feature is not accurately represented by models that apply the plane-parallel assumption applied in the standard radiation parameterizations.

  12. Improving ENSO periodicity simulation by adjusting cumulus entrainment in BCC_CSMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Bo; Ren, Hong-Li

    2016-12-01

    The simulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a challenging issue for coupled climate models. This study focuses on the ENSO periodicity simulated by Beijing Climate Center Climate System Models (BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1m) which can reproduce reasonably well ENSO amplitude as observations. However, the major period of ENSO simulated by the BCC_CSMs is around 2.4 years, which is much shorter than that in observations. Compared with other 24 coupled models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), BCC_CSMs produce a very unrealistic ENSO peak period. Such a bias in simulating periodicity is suggested as a consequence of the severely underestimated air-sea coupling intensity in BCC_CSMs. To test this hypothesis, a quantitative method is developed to diagnose the linear ENSO frequency. As an effort to improve the ENSO simulation in BCC_CSMs, three experiments are performed with varying entrainment rates in the cumulus convection parameterization scheme of BCC_CSM1.1m. A more realistic ENSO period of about 3.3 years can be generated by the model with an inflated entrainment rate. When the cumulus entrainment is increased by 10%, the ENSO-related convective precipitation will enhance in the equatorial central to eastern Pacific. This anomalous convective heating induces an intensified surface westerly wind stress to the west of the anomalous convection center and as a result, the air-sea coupling intensity becomes larger, which contributes to a longer period of ENSO based on previous theories. In addition, the pronounced eastward extension of ENSO-related surface wind stress could also be the secondary factor to generate a lower frequency of ENSO in BCC_CSMs. Our study proposes a method to reduce the biases in ENSO periodicity simulation and puts more insights into the importance of adjusting atmospheric convection to reproduce ENSO properties in coupled model.

  13. Direct Numerical Simulation of Evaporative Cooling at the Lateral Boundary of Shallow Cumulus Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heus, T.; Abma, D.; Mellado, J.

    2012-12-01

    This study investigates the dynamics of a narrow region of subsiding air at the lateral boundary of cumulus clouds, focusing on the role of evaporative cooling. Previous observational and large-eddy simulations showed the relevance of this subsiding shell in cloud dynamics, but have also showed that the size of this shell is well below what large-eddy simulations can resolve. Therefore, we have performed direct numerical simulations of an idealized subsiding shell to investigate accurately the complete turbulent field. The system develops a self-similar, Reynolds number independent flow which allows for the determination of explicit scaling laws relating the characteristic length, time and velocity scales of the shell. In particular, it is found that the shell width grows quadratically in time, and linearly with decreasing height. The magnitude of these growth rates confirm the importance of the subsiding shell because of the relatively fast development of entrainment-determining scales: for typical thermodynamic conditions in cumulus clouds, a velocity of the order of 1~m~s-1 and a thickness of the order of 10 meters are established in about 2 minutes. This fits well within the typical cloud life time, suggesting that our idealization is an adequate framework for the analysis of relevant aspects in the subsiding shell associated with buoyancy reversal. It also indicates that the scaling laws derived here can be used to estimate the potential strength of a subsiding shell and the mean lateral entrainment associated with it, provided an estimate of the local thermodynamical state of the cloud boundary. It is shown that the dominant parameter of this system is the saturation buoyancy, whereas the effect of the saturation mixing fraction is minor.uoyancy field in the subsiding shell. Blue colors are low values, red colors are high values.

  14. Observational estimates of detrainment and entrainment in non-precipitating shallow cumulus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norgren, M. S.; Small, J. D.; Jonsson, H. H.; Chuang, P. Y.

    2016-01-01

    Vertical transport associated with cumulus clouds is important to the redistribution of gases, particles, and energy, with subsequent consequences for many aspects of the climate system. Previous studies have suggested that detrainment from clouds can be comparable to the updraft mass flux, and thus represents an important contribution to vertical transport. In this study, we describe a new method to deduce the amounts of gross detrainment and entrainment experienced by non-precipitating cumulus clouds using aircraft observations. The method utilizes equations for three conserved variables: cloud mass, total water, and moist static energy. Optimizing these three equations leads to estimates of the mass fractions of adiabatic mixed-layer air, entrained air and detrained air that the sampled cloud has experienced. The method is applied to six flights of the CIRPAS Twin Otter during the Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study (GoMACCS) which took place in the Houston, Texas region during the summer of 2006 during which 176 small, non-precipitating cumuli were sampled. Using our novel method, we find that, on average, these clouds were comprised of 30 to 70 % mixed-layer air, with entrained air comprising most of the remainder. The mass fraction of detrained air was usually very small, less than 2 %, although values larger than 10 % were found in 15 % of clouds. Entrained and detrained air mass fractions both increased with altitude, consistent with some previous observational studies. The largest detrainment events were almost all associated with air that was at their level of neutral buoyancy, which has been hypothesized in previous modeling studies. This new method could be readily used with data from other previous aircraft campaigns to expand our understanding of detrainment for a variety of cloud systems.

  15. High-Resolution CRM Simulations from IHOP: Cloud-Radiation Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, S. E.; Tao, W.; Zeng, X.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Kumar, S.; Eastman, J. L.

    2006-05-01

    The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a cloud-resolving model (CRM) and has been coupled to different land surface models to better simulate continental convection. Originally the GCE model was coupled to PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Cloud-Exchange) but has recently been coupled to LIS (the Land Information System), which contains a suite of different land models. CRMs can explicity resolve the interaction between clouds and radiation. The GCE model was used to simulate a convective case day that occurred on 12 June 2002 over the central southern plains during the International H2O Project (IHOP), which took place during the summer of 2002. The objectives of this study are to examine the fine-scale and aggregate impact on convection and clouds of sub-sampling cloud-radiation interactions in the model by updating the radiation fields less frequently the cloud microphysics. This is commonly done to save computations and speed up simulations.

  16. Calculations of canonical averages from the grand canonical ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosov, D S; Gelin, M F; Vdovin, A I

    2008-02-01

    Grand canonical and canonical ensembles become equivalent in the thermodynamic limit, but when the system size is finite the results obtained in the two ensembles deviate from each other. In many important cases, the canonical ensemble provides an appropriate physical description but it is often much easier to perform the calculations in the corresponding grand canonical ensemble. We present a method to compute averages in the canonical ensemble based on calculations of the expectation values in the grand canonical ensemble. The number of particles, which is fixed in the canonical ensemble, is not necessarily the same as the average number of particles in the grand canonical ensemble.

  17. Hybrid Data Assimilation without Ensemble Filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todling, Ricardo; Akkraoui, Amal El

    2014-01-01

    The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is preparing to upgrade its three-dimensional variational system to a hybrid approach in which the ensemble is generated using a square-root ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the variational problem is solved using the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation system. As in most EnKF applications, we found it necessary to employ a combination of multiplicative and additive inflations, to compensate for sampling and modeling errors, respectively and, to maintain the small-member ensemble solution close to the variational solution; we also found it necessary to re-center the members of the ensemble about the variational analysis. During tuning of the filter we have found re-centering and additive inflation to play a considerably larger role than expected, particularly in a dual-resolution context when the variational analysis is ran at larger resolution than the ensemble. This led us to consider a hybrid strategy in which the members of the ensemble are generated by simply converting the variational analysis to the resolution of the ensemble and applying additive inflation, thus bypassing the EnKF. Comparisons of this, so-called, filter-free hybrid procedure with an EnKF-based hybrid procedure and a control non-hybrid, traditional, scheme show both hybrid strategies to provide equally significant improvement over the control; more interestingly, the filter-free procedure was found to give qualitatively similar results to the EnKF-based procedure.

  18. MSEBAG: a dynamic classifier ensemble generation based on `minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Kamel, Mohamed S.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a dynamic classifier system, MSEBAG, which is characterised by searching for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble' and bagging at the ensemble level. It adopts an 'over-generation and selection' strategy and aims to achieve a good bias-variance trade-off. In the training phase, MSEBAG first searches for the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', which maximises the in-sample fitness with the minimal number of base classifiers. Then, starting from the 'minimum-sufficient ensemble', a backward stepwise algorithm is employed to generate a collection of ensembles. The objective is to create a collection of ensembles with a descending fitness on the data, as well as a descending complexity in the structure. MSEBAG dynamically selects the ensembles from the collection for the decision aggregation. The extended adaptive aggregation (EAA) approach, a bagging-style algorithm performed at the ensemble level, is employed for this task. EAA searches for the competent ensembles using a score function, which takes into consideration both the in-sample fitness and the confidence of the statistical inference, and averages the decisions of the selected ensembles to label the test pattern. The experimental results show that the proposed MSEBAG outperforms the benchmarks on average.

  19. 4DVAR by ensemble Kalman smoother

    CERN Document Server

    Mandel, Jan; Gratton, Serge

    2013-01-01

    We propose to use the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) as linear least squares solver in the Gauss-Newton method for the large nonlinear least squares in incremental 4DVAR. The ensemble approach is naturally parallel over the ensemble members and no tangent or adjoint operators are needed. Further, adding a regularization term results in replacing the Gauss-Newton method, which may diverge, by^M the Levenberg-Marquardt method, which is known to be convergent. The regularization is implemented efficiently as an additional observation in the EnKS.

  20. Derivation of Mayer Series from Canonical Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xian-Zhi

    2016-02-01

    Mayer derived the Mayer series from both the canonical ensemble and the grand canonical ensemble by use of the cluster expansion method. In 2002, we conjectured a recursion formula of the canonical partition function of a fluid (X.Z. Wang, Phys. Rev. E 66 (2002) 056102). In this paper we give a proof for this formula by developing an appropriate expansion of the integrand of the canonical partition function. We further derive the Mayer series solely from the canonical ensemble by use of this recursion formula.

  1. Levels of cyclic-AMP and cyclic-GMP in porcine oocyte-cumulus complexes and cumulus-free oocytes derived from small and middle follicles during the first 24-hour period of in vitro maturation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okudaira, Yuichi; Wakai, Takuya; Funahashi, Hiroaki

    2017-02-23

    The objective of this study was to compare the cAMP and cGMP levels in cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs) derived from the middle follicles (MFs, 3-6 mm in diameter) and small follicles (SFs, 1-3 mm in diameter) of pre-pubertal gilts during the first 24-h period of maturation in vitro (IVM). Both cAMP and cGMP levels in MF- and SF-derived oocytes did not change during this period. Although the cAMP levels increased in the COCs at 10 and 20 h after the start of IVM, the levels of cAMP were significantly higher in MF-derived COCs than in SF-derived COCs at 20 h after the start of IVM. On the other hand, the cGMP levels in COCs decreased to basal levels between 10 and 20 h after the start of the IVM, whereas cGMP levels were lower in SF-derived COCs than in MF-derived COCs during the first 10 h. The number of cumulus cells was larger in the MF-derived COCs than in the SF-derived COCs during the first 20-h period of IVM. The estimated cAMP level per cumulus cell at 10 h after the start of the IVM was higher in SF-derived COCs than in MF-derived COCs, whereas the estimated cGMP level per cumulus cell was no different between MF- and SF-derived COCs. From these results, we conclude that cAMP and cGMP levels in COCs, but not in oocytes, drastically change during the first 20-h period of IVM, and that both cAMP and cGMP levels significantly differ between MF- and SF-derived COCs.

  2. Nonextensivity in Magnetic Nanocluster Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binek, Christian; Polisetty, Srinivas; He, Xi; Mukherjee, Tathagata; Rajasekeran, Rajesh; Redepenning, Jody

    2006-03-01

    We study the scaling behavior of dipolar interacting nanoparticles in 3D samples of various sizes but constant particle density. Ferromagnetic γ-Fe2O3 clusters embedded in a polystyrene matrix are fabricated by thermal decomposition of metal carbonyls. Transmission electron microscopy reveals a narrow size distribution of 12 nm clusters. They are randomly dispersed in the matrix with an average separation of 80 nm. Magnetization isotherms of these single domain particle ensembles are measured by SQUID magnetometry above the blocking temperature TB =115K where non-equilibrium effects are avoided. After demagnetization corrections which convert the applied magnetic fields into internal fields, H, a data collapse is achieved when scaling the magnetic moment, m, and H by appropriate factors. The latter are theoretically predicted functions of the number of particles and determined here numerically. Scaling of H takes into account the nonextensive (NE) behavior of dipolar interacting particles. In the case of long range interactions a scaling schema has been proposed by Tsallis and confirmed by simulations. The controversial field of NE thermodynamics requires however experimental evidence provided here.

  3. Ensemble Dynamics and Bred Vectors

    CERN Document Server

    Balci, Nusret; Restrepo, Juan M; Sell, George R

    2011-01-01

    We introduce the new concept of an EBV to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to changes in initial conditions for weather forecasting. The new algorithm, which we call the "Ensemble Bred Vector" or EBV, is based on collective dynamics in essential ways. By construction, the EBV algorithm produces one or more dominant vectors. We investigate the performance of EBV, comparing it to the BV algorithm as well as the finite-time Lyapunov Vectors. We give a theoretical justification to the observed fact that the vectors produced by BV, EBV, and the finite-time Lyapunov vectors are similar for small amplitudes. Numerical comparisons of BV and EBV for the 3-equation Lorenz model and for a forced, dissipative partial differential equation of Cahn-Hilliard type that arises in modeling the thermohaline circulation, demonstrate that the EBV yields a size-ordered description of the perturbation field, and is more robust than the BV in the higher nonlinear regime. The EBV yields insight into the fractal structure of th...

  4. A 4D-Ensemble-Variational System for Data Assimilation and Ensemble Initialization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowler, Neill; Clayton, Adam; Jardak, Mohamed; Lee, Eunjoo; Jermey, Peter; Lorenc, Andrew; Piccolo, Chiara; Pring, Stephen; Wlasak, Marek; Barker, Dale; Inverarity, Gordon; Swinbank, Richard

    2016-04-01

    The Met Office has been developing a four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system over the past four years. The 4DEnVar system is intended both as data assimilation system in its own right and also an improved means of initializing the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The global MOGREPS ensemble has been initialized by running an ensemble of 4DEnVars (En-4DEnVar). The scalability and maintainability of ensemble data assimilation methods make them increasingly attractive, and 4DEnVar may be adopted in the context of the Met Office's LFRic project to redevelop the technical infrastructure to enable its Unified Model (MetUM) to be run efficiently on massively parallel supercomputers. This presentation will report on the results of the 4DEnVar development project, including experiments that have been run using ensemble sizes of up to 200 members.

  5. Decreased expression of tumor necrosis factor-alpha-stimulated gene 6 in cumulus cells of the cyclooxygenase-2 and EP2 null mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochsner, Scott A; Russell, Darryl L; Day, Anthony J; Breyer, Richard M; Richards, Joanne S

    2003-03-01

    Ovulation, the release of fertilizable oocytes from mature follicles, involves tissue remodeling and increased prostaglandin (PG) signaling. Cyclooxygenase (COX)-2 is the rate-limiting enzyme during PG synthesis. Female mice null for either COX-2 or the PGE(2) receptor EP2 are infertile, show decreased ovulation, and exhibit abnormal cumulus expansion. Cumulus expansion is the production of a complex extracellular matrix surrounding the cumulus-oocyte complex (COC). Matrix components consist of hyaluronan, proteoglycans, and proteins with hyaluronan binding domains. One such hyaluronan binding protein is TNFalpha-stimulated gene 6 (TSG-6). By various methods, we show induction of TSG-6 and hyaluronan synthase-2 mRNA in ovaries of mice treated with pregnant mare serum gonadotropin and human chorionic gonadotropin. By in situ hybridization, we show that both genes are expressed in periantral mural granulosa cells and cumulus cells of the mouse ovary. Notably, RT-PCR and in situ hybridization show that TSG-6 mRNA but not hyaluronan synthase-2 mRNA expression is selectively reduced in cumulus cells of COX-2 and EP2 null mice. Western analysis further confirms that TSG-6 protein is reduced in isolated COCs but remains covalently associated with inter alpha-trypsin inhibitor in COX-2 null mice. These observations identify TSG-6 as a target of PG action and show that its production in ovulatory follicles is associated with proper formation of the cumulus-derived extracellular matrix.

  6. Numerical Simulations of the 1 May 2012 Deep Convection Event over Cuba: Sensitivity to Cumulus and Microphysical Schemes in a High-Resolution Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yandy G. Mayor

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the sensitivity to cumulus and microphysics schemes, as represented in numerical simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, in characterizing a deep convection event over the Cuban island on 1 May 2012. To this end, 30 experiments combining five cumulus and six microphysics schemes, in addition to two experiments in which the cumulus parameterization was turned off, are tested in order to choose the combination that represents the event precipitation more accurately. ERA Interim is used as lateral boundary condition data for the downscaling procedure. Results show that convective schemes are more important than microphysics schemes for determining the precipitation areas within a high-resolution domain simulation. Also, while one cumulus scheme captures the overall spatial convective structure of the event more accurately than others, it fails to capture the precipitation intensity. This apparent discrepancy leads to sensitivity related to the verification method used to rank the scheme combinations. This sensitivity is also observed in a comparison between parameterized and explicit cumulus formation when the Kain-Fritsch scheme was used. A loss of added value is also found when the Grell-Freitas cumulus scheme was activated at 1 km grid spacing.

  7. Transition from Poisson to circular unitary ensemble

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Vinayak; Akhilesh Pandey

    2009-09-01

    Transitions to universality classes of random matrix ensembles have been useful in the study of weakly-broken symmetries in quantum chaotic systems. Transitions involving Poisson as the initial ensemble have been particularly interesting. The exact two-point correlation function was derived by one of the present authors for the Poisson to circular unitary ensemble (CUE) transition with uniform initial density. This is given in terms of a rescaled symmetry breaking parameter Λ. The same result was obtained for Poisson to Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE) transition by Kunz and Shapiro, using the contour-integral method of Brezin and Hikami. We show that their method is applicable to Poisson to CUE transition with arbitrary initial density. Their method is also applicable to the more general ℓ CUE to CUE transition where CUE refers to the superposition of ℓ independent CUE spectra in arbitrary ratio.

  8. Ensemble treatments of thermal pairing in nuclei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Nguyen Quang; Dang, Nguyen Dinh

    2009-10-01

    A systematic comparison is conducted for pairing properties of finite systems at nonzero temperature as predicted by the exact solutions of the pairing problem embedded in three principal statistical ensembles, namely the grandcanonical ensemble, canonical ensemble and microcanonical ensemble, as well as the unprojected (FTBCS1+SCQRPA) and Lipkin-Nogami projected (FTLN1+SCQRPA) theories that include the quasiparticle number fluctuation and coupling to pair vibrations within the self-consistent quasiparticle random-phase approximation. The numerical calculations are performed for the pairing gap, total energy, heat capacity, entropy, and microcanonical temperature within the doubly-folded equidistant multilevel pairing model. The FTLN1+SCQRPA predictions are found to agree best with the exact grand-canonical results. In general, all approaches clearly show that the superfluid-normal phase transition is smoothed out in finite systems. A novel formula is suggested for extracting the empirical pairing gap in reasonable agreement with the exact canonical results.

  9. Ensemble Machine Learning Methods and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ma, Yunqian

    2012-01-01

    It is common wisdom that gathering a variety of views and inputs improves the process of decision making, and, indeed, underpins a democratic society. Dubbed “ensemble learning” by researchers in computational intelligence and machine learning, it is known to improve a decision system’s robustness and accuracy. Now, fresh developments are allowing researchers to unleash the power of ensemble learning in an increasing range of real-world applications. Ensemble learning algorithms such as “boosting” and “random forest” facilitate solutions to key computational issues such as face detection and are now being applied in areas as diverse as object trackingand bioinformatics.   Responding to a shortage of literature dedicated to the topic, this volume offers comprehensive coverage of state-of-the-art ensemble learning techniques, including various contributions from researchers in leading industrial research labs. At once a solid theoretical study and a practical guide, the volume is a windfall for r...

  10. Ensemble Learning for Free with Evolutionary Algorithms ?

    CERN Document Server

    Gagné, Christian; Schoenauer, Marc; Tomassini, Marco

    2007-01-01

    Evolutionary Learning proceeds by evolving a population of classifiers, from which it generally returns (with some notable exceptions) the single best-of-run classifier as final result. In the meanwhile, Ensemble Learning, one of the most efficient approaches in supervised Machine Learning for the last decade, proceeds by building a population of diverse classifiers. Ensemble Learning with Evolutionary Computation thus receives increasing attention. The Evolutionary Ensemble Learning (EEL) approach presented in this paper features two contributions. First, a new fitness function, inspired by co-evolution and enforcing the classifier diversity, is presented. Further, a new selection criterion based on the classification margin is proposed. This criterion is used to extract the classifier ensemble from the final population only (Off-line) or incrementally along evolution (On-line). Experiments on a set of benchmark problems show that Off-line outperforms single-hypothesis evolutionary learning and state-of-art ...

  11. The effect of cumulus cells on domestic cat (Felis catus) oocytes during in vitro maturation and fertilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sowińska, N; Frankowska, K; Filipczyk, A; Adamaszek, A; Nalik, K; Fic, K; Pietsch-Fulbiszewska, A

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of co-culture of denuded oocytes with cumulus cells (CC) or cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs) on in vitro maturation (IVM) and in vitro fertilization (IVF). Immature oocytes were collected from ovaries of domestic cats following a routine ovariectomy. Oocytes were matured in vitro for 24 hr within four groups: (i) denuded oocytes (DO), (ii) DO co-cultured with CC, (iii) DO co-cultured with COC and (iv) COC as a control group. In further experiments, COCs were matured in vitro for 24 hr, and then, oocytes were randomly divided into four groups as previously described and fertilized in vitro. Embryos were cultured for up to 7 days. At the end of each experiment, oocytes/embryos were stained with Hoechst 33342 solution and observed under an inverted fluorescence microscope. The results of oocyte maturation showed that their meiotic competence decreased significantly in all experimental groups, compared to the control group. The maturation rates were approximately 45%, 24%, 43% and 76% in experiment 1, and 21%, 14%, 33% and 50% in experiment 2 in groups (i), (ii), (iii) and (iv), respectively. Examination of in vitro fertilization revealed that embryos developed up to the morula stage in all experimental groups. DO and oocytes cultured with COC during fertilization showed a lower cleavage rate-36% and 25% as opposed to those co-cultured with loose CC and the control group-43% and 42%, respectively. Results of this study indicate that cumulus cells connected with an oocyte into a cumulus-oocyte complex are irreplaceable for the maturation of domestic cat oocyte, but that the addition of loose CC may be beneficial for IVF. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  12. Reversible Projective Measurement in Quantum Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Khitrin, Anatoly; Lee, Jae-Seung

    2010-01-01

    We present experimental NMR demonstration of a scheme of reversible projective measurement, which allows extracting information on outcomes and probabilities of a projective measurement in a non-destructive way, with a minimal net effect on the quantum state of an ensemble. The scheme uses reversible dynamics and weak measurement of the intermediate state. The experimental system is an ensemble of 133Cs (S = 7/2) nuclei in a liquid-crystalline matrix.

  13. Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Mallet, Vivien; Stoltz, Gilles; Mauricette, Boris

    2009-01-01

    International audience; We apply machine learning algorithms to perform sequential aggregation of ozone forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system Polyphemus. The ensemble simulations are obtained by changes in the physical parameterizations, the numerical schemes, and the input data to the models. The simulations are carried out for summer 2001 over western Europe in order to forecast ozone daily peaks and ozone hourly concentrati...

  14. Cluster Ensemble-based Image Segmentation

    OpenAIRE

    Xiaoru Wang; Junping Du; Shuzhe Wu; Xu Li; Fu Li

    2013-01-01

    Image segmentation is the foundation of computer vision applications. In this paper, we propose a new cluster ensemble-based image segmentation algorithm, which overcomes several problems of traditional methods. We make two main contributions in this paper. First, we introduce the cluster ensemble concept to fuse the segmentation results from different types of visual features effectively, which can deliver a better final result and achieve a much more stable performance for broad categories ...

  15. Calibrating ensemble reliability whilst preserving spatial structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Flowerdew

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim to improve decision-making by predicting a set of possible outcomes. Ideally, these would provide probabilities which are both sharp and reliable. In practice, the models, data assimilation and ensemble perturbation systems are all imperfect, leading to deficiencies in the predicted probabilities. This paper presents an ensemble post-processing scheme which directly targets local reliability, calibrating both climatology and ensemble dispersion in one coherent operation. It makes minimal assumptions about the underlying statistical distributions, aiming to extract as much information as possible from the original dynamic forecasts and support statistically awkward variables such as precipitation. The output is a set of ensemble members preserving the spatial, temporal and inter-variable structure from the raw forecasts, which should be beneficial to downstream applications such as hydrological models. The calibration is tested on three leading 15-d ensemble systems, and their aggregation into a simple multimodel ensemble. Results are presented for 12 h, 1° scale over Europe for a range of surface variables, including precipitation. The scheme is very effective at removing unreliability from the raw forecasts, whilst generally preserving or improving statistical resolution. In most cases, these benefits extend to the rarest events at each location within the 2-yr verification period. The reliability and resolution are generally equivalent or superior to those achieved using a Local Quantile-Quantile Transform, an established calibration method which generalises bias correction. The value of preserving spatial structure is demonstrated by the fact that 3×3 averages derived from grid-scale precipitation calibration perform almost as well as direct calibration at 3×3 scale, and much better than a similar test neglecting the spatial relationships. Some remaining issues are discussed regarding the finite size of the output

  16. Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

  17. Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan D. Keller

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The quantitative forecast of precipitation requires a probabilistic background particularly with regard to forecast lead times of more than 3 days. As only ensemble simulations can provide useful information of the underlying probability density function, we built a new ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS based on the GME model of the German Meteorological Service (DWD. For the generation of appropriate initial ensemble perturbations we chose the breeding technique developed by Toth and Kalnay (1993, 1997, which develops perturbations by estimating the regions of largest model error induced uncertainty. This method is applied and tested in the framework of quasi-operational forecasts for a three month period in 2007. The performance of the resulting ensemble forecasts are compared to the operational ensemble prediction systems ECMWF EPS and NCEP GFS by means of ensemble spread of free atmosphere parameters (geopotential and temperature and ensemble skill of precipitation forecasting. This comparison indicates that the GME ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS provides reasonable forecasts with spread skill score comparable to that of the NCEP GFS. An analysis with the continuous ranked probability score exhibits a lack of resolution for the GME forecasts compared to the operational ensembles. However, with significant enhancements during the 3 month test period, the first results of our work with the GME-EFS indicate possibilities for further development as well as the potential for later operational usage.

  18. Intercomparison and evaluation of cumulus parametrizations under summertime midlatitude continental conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Shaocheng; Xu, Kuan-Man; Cederwall, Richard T.; Bechtold, Peter; del Genio, Anthony D.; Klein, Stephen A.; Cripe, Douglas G.; Ghan, Steven J.; Gregory, David; Iacobellis, Sam F.; Krueger, Steven K.; Lohmann, Ulrike; Petch, Jon C.; Randall, David A.; Rotstayn, Leon D.; Somerville, Richard C. J.; Sud, Yogesh C.; von Salzen, Knut; Walker, Gregory K.; Wolf, Audrey; Yio, J. John; Zhang, Guang Jun; Zhang, Minghua

    2002-04-01

    This study reports the Single-Column Model (SCM) part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)/the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud System Study (GCSS) joint SCM and Cloud-Resolving Model (CRM) Case 3 intercomparison study, with a focus on evaluation of cumulus parametrizations used in SCMs. Fifteen SCMs are evaluated under summertime midlatitude continental conditions using data collected at the ARM Southern Great Plains site during the summer 1997 Intensive Observing Period. Results from ten CRMs are also used to diagnose problems in the SCMs. It is shown that most SCMs can generally capture well the convective events that were well-developed within the SCM domain, while most of them have difficulties in simulating the occurrence of those convective events that only occurred within a small part of the domain. All models significantly underestimate the surface stratiform precipitation. A third of them produce large errors in surface precipitation and thermodynamic structures. Deficiencies in convective triggering mechanisms are thought to be one of the major reasons. Using a triggering mechanism that is based on the vertical integral of parcel buoyant energy without additional appropriate constraints results in overactive convection, which in turn leads to large systematic warm/dry biases in the troposphere. It is also shown that a non-penetrative convection scheme can underestimate the depth of instability for midlatitude convection, which leads to large systematic cold/moist biases in the troposphere. SCMs agree well quantitatively with CRMs in the updraught mass fluxes, while most models significantly underestimate the downdraught mass fluxes. Neglect of mesoscale updraught and downdraught mass fluxes in the SCMs contributes considerably to the discrepancies between the SCMs and the CRMs. In addition, uncertainties in the diagnosed mass fluxes in the CRMs and deficiencies with cumulus parametrizations are not negligible. Similar

  19. Minimal redefinition of the OSV ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Parvizi, S; Parvizi, Shahrokh; Tavanfar, Alireza

    2005-01-01

    In the interesting conjecture, Z_{BH}=|Z_{top}|^2, proposed by Ooguri, Strominger and Vafa (OSV), the black hole ensemble is a mixed ensemble, and resulting degeneracy of states as obtained from the ensemble inverse-Laplace integration, suffer from prefactors which do not respect the (relevant) electric-magnetic dualities. One idea to overcome this deficiency, as claimed recently, is imposing a nontrivial measure for the ensemble sum. We address this problem and upon a redefinition of the OSV ensemble whose variables are as numerous as the electric potentials, show that for restoring the symmetry no non-Euclidean measure is needful. In detail, we rewrite the OSV free energy as a function of new variables which are combinations of the electric-potentials and the black hole charges. Subsequently the Legendre transformation which bridges between the entropy and the black hole free energy in terms of these variables, points to a generalized ensemble. In this context we will consider all the cases of relevance: sm...

  20. Level density for deformations of the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Bertuola, A C; Hussein, M S; Pato, M P; Sargeant, A J

    2004-01-01

    Formulas are derived for the average level density of deformed, or transition, Gaussian orthogonal random matrix ensembles. After some general considerations about Gaussian ensembles we derive formulas for the average level density for (i) the transition from the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE) to the Poisson ensemble and (ii) the transition from the GOE to $m$ GOEs.

  1. Hyaluronidase alters the lipid profile of cumulus cells as detected by MALDI-TOF MS and multivariate analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montani, Daniela Antunes; Regiani, Thaís; Victorino, Amanda Begati; Camillo, Jacqueline; Pilau, Eduardo Jorge; Gozzo, Fábio Cesar; Zylbersztejn, Daniel Suslik; Ferreira, Christina Ramires; Lo Turco, Edson Guimarães

    2014-09-01

    This research aimed to study the changes in lipid composition in cumulus cells using hyaluronidase according to the intracytoplasmic sperm injection protocol commonly used in human reproduction clinics. The lipid extraction was performed by the Blight-Dyer protocol and the lipid profiles were obtained by MALDI-TOF MS in positive and negative modes. The mass spectra data were processed with MassLynx and the statistical analysis was performed using MetaboAnalyst 2.0. Fifteen ions were selected for each mode as potential markers for differences between the groups. These ions were identified in the human metabolome database as phosphatidylserine with and without treatment, phosphatidylethanolamine in the after treatment group and phosphatidylinositol in the before treatment group, which are lipids that may be involved in cell apoptosis and signaling. We concluded that MALDI-TOF MS coupled with multivariate analysis can be utilized as a strategy to obtain and study the lipid profiles of cumulus cells and as a tool to study the metabolic state of cumulus cells.

  2. Intensive radiosonde measurements of summertime convection over the Inner Mongolia grassland in 2014: Difference between shallow cumulus and other conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hongrong; Chen, Hongbin; Xia, Xiang'ao; Fan, Xuehua; Zhang, Jinqiang; Li, Jun; Ling, Chao

    2017-06-01

    Using radiosonde measurements from 26 July to 30 July 2014 at Baiqi over the Inner Mongolia grassland of China, the vertical structure of shallow cumulus (SCu) clouds and associated environmental conditions were investigated. The cloud base height and the cloud top height of SCu was 3.4 km and 5 km, respectively. The temperature of the SCu layer was less than 0°C. The horizontal advection of specific humidity was smaller than the vertical transport in the atmosphere below 5 km. Above 5 km, the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere remained stable. At the interface of the cloud layer and free air atmosphere, there was obvious wind shear and a temperature inversion ( 2.9°C). Comparisons of environmental parameters associated with cumulus congestus, rain and clear days, showed that the formation of SCu was characterized by a higher Bowen ratio (high sensible heat flux and low latent heat flux), which indicated intensive turbulence in the boundary layer. The formation of SCu was associated with the boundary layer height exceeding the lifting condensation level. The maintenance of SCu was likely associated with the lower convective available potential energy, weak wind shear, and weak subsidence of the synoptic system, which did not favor the dramatic vertical development of SCu and thereby the transformation of SCu to cumulus congestus.

  3. The classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Zhu, Xuanmin; Wu, Shengjun; Liu, Quanhui

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the classicality and quantumness of a quantum ensemble. We define a quantity called classicality to characterize how classical a quantum ensemble is. An ensemble of commuting states that can be manipulated classically has a unit classicality, while a general ensemble has a classicality less than 1. We also study how quantum an ensemble is by defining a related quantity called quantumness. We find that the classicality of an ensemble is closely related to how perfectly the ensemble can be cloned, and that the quantumness of an ensemble is essentially responsible for the security of quantum key distribution(QKD) protocols using that ensemble. Furthermore, we show that the quantumness of an ensemble used in a QKD protocol is exactly the attainable lower bound of the error rate in the sifted key.

  4. Ensemble postprocessing for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentzien, S.; Friederichs, P.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation is one of the most difficult weather variables to predict in hydrometeorological applications. In order to assess the uncertainty inherent in deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP), meteorological services around the globe develop ensemble prediction systems (EPS) based on high-resolution NWP systems. With non-hydrostatic model dynamics and without parameterization of deep moist convection, high-resolution NWP models are able to describe convective processes in more detail and provide more realistic mesoscale structures. However, precipitation forecasts are still affected by displacement errors, systematic biases and fast error growth on small scales. Probabilistic guidance can be achieved from an ensemble setup which accounts for model error and uncertainty of initial and boundary conditions. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) provides such an ensemble system based on the German-focused limited-area model COSMO-DE. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2.8 km, COSMO-DE is the convection-permitting high-resolution part of the operational model chain at DWD. The COSMO-DE-EPS consists of 20 realizations of COSMO-DE, driven by initial and boundary conditions derived from 4 global models and 5 perturbations of model physics. Ensemble systems like COSMO-DE-EPS are often limited with respect to ensemble size due to the immense computational costs. As a consequence, they can be biased and exhibit insufficient ensemble spread, and probabilistic forecasts may be not well calibrated. In this study, probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts are derived from COSMO-DE-EPS and evaluated at more than 1000 rain gauges located all over Germany. COSMO-DE-EPS is a frequently updated ensemble system, initialized 8 times a day. We use the time-lagged approach to inexpensively increase ensemble spread, which results in more reliable forecasts especially for extreme precipitation events. Moreover, we will show that statistical

  5. Identification of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS) Specific Genes in Cumulus and Mural Granulosa Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydos, Alp; Gurel, Aykut; Oztemur Islakoglu, Yasemin; Noyan, Senem; Gokce, Bagdagul; Ecemis, Tolga; Kaya, Cemil; Aksu, Arif Tarik

    2016-01-01

    Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a metabolic and endocrine disorder which affects women of reproductive age with prevalence of 8–18%. The oocyte within the follicle is surrounded by cumulus cells (CCs), which connect with mural granulosa cells (MGCs) that are responsible for secreting steroid hormones. The main aim of this study is comparing gene expression profiles of MGCs and CCs in PCOS and control samples to identify PCOS-specific differentially expressed genes (DEGs). In this study, two microarray databases were searched for mRNA expression microarray studies performed with CCs and MGCs obtained from PCOS patients and control samples. Three independent studies were selected to be integrated with naive meta-analysis since raw meta-data from these studies were found to be highly correlated. DEGs in these somatic cells were identified for PCOS and control groups. This study enabled us to reveal dysregulation in MAPK (mitogen activated protein kinase), insulin and Wnt signaling pathways between CCs and MGCs in PCOS. The meta-analysis results together with qRT-PCR validations provide evidence that molecular signaling is dysregulated through MGCs and CCs in PCOS, which is important for follicle and oocyte maturation and may contribute to the pathogenesis of the syndrome. PMID:27997581

  6. Nitric oxide acts through different signaling pathways in maturation of cumulus cell-enclosed mouse oocytes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Abbasi

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Background: Nitric oxide (NO have a dual action in mouse oocyte meiotic maturation which depends on its concentration, but the mechanisms by which it influences oocyte maturation has not been exactly clarified. In this study different signaling mechanisms which exist for in vitro maturation of meiosis was examined in cumulus cell-enclosed oocytes (CEOs after injection of pregnant mare's serum gonadotropin (PMSG to immature female mice. Methods: The CEOs were cultured in spontaneous maturation and hypoxanthine (HX arrested model. Results: Sodium nitroprusside (SNP, an NO donor, 10mM delayed germinal vesicle breakdown (GVBD significantly during the first 5 hrs of incubation and inhibited the formation of first polar body (PB1 at the end of 24 hrs of incubation. SNP (10-5M stimulated the meiotic maturation of oocytes significantly by overcoming the inhibition of HX. Sildenafil (a cGMP stimulator, 100 nM, had a significant inhibitory effects on both spontaneous meiotic maturation and HX-arrested meiotic maturation. Forskolin (an adenylate cyclase stimulator, 6µM and SNP (10mM had the same effects on GVBD. Forskolin reversed the SNP (10-5M stimulated meiotic maturation. Conclusion: These results suggest that differences in pathways are present between SNP-inhibited spontaneous meiotic maturation and SNP-stimulated meiotic maturation in mouse oocytes

  7. Isolation and Identification of Transforming Growth Factor β from In Vitro Matured Cumulus Oocyte Complexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AULANI’AM

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β is a two-chain polypeptide with molecular weight of 25 kDa which takes significant role in the steroidogenesis process. In the ovarian oocyte in particular, TGF-β has an important role in regulating reproductive function. TGF-β represents a key intrafollicular protein that regulates follicle development and aromatization process. The purpose of this research was to characterize and identify a protein fraction of TGF-β from the bovine isolated oocytes, which is synthesized during in vitro oocyte maturation process. Oocytes were collected from follicles with diameter of 3-8 mm. Oocytes were then matured in TCM 199 media supplemented with 5 μg/mg LH, 3% BSA, and 50 μg/ml gentamicin sulfate, and cultured in CO2 incubator (5%, 38.5 oC for 20 hours. TGF-β receptors were identified immunohistochemically. Characteristics of the TGF-β protein were determined using SDS PAGE and TGF-β specification was tested using Western Blotting. The results showed that TGF-β receptors were identified and found in cumulus oocyte complexes (COCs. TGF-β protein was isolated from bovine oocytes with molecular weight 25 kDa and it was identified by Western blotting methods in the same molecular weight.

  8. Effects of entrainment and mixing on droplet size distributions in warm cumulus clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tölle, Merja H.; Krueger, Steven K.

    2014-06-01

    A long-standing problem in cloud physics is the broadening of the cloud droplet spectrum in warm cumulus clouds. To isolate the changes of the droplet size distribution (DSD) due to entrainment and turbulent mixing, we used the Explicit Mixing Parcel Model (EMPM). The EMPM explicitly represents spatial variability due to entrainment and turbulent mixing down to the smallest turbulence scales in a one-dimensional domain. Several thousand individual droplets evolve by condensation or evaporation according to their local environments. We used EMPM results to characterize the evolution of the DSD due to entrainment and isobaric mixing for a wide range of conditions in a 20 m domain, including variations in entrained environmental air fraction, the turbulence dissipation rate, the size of the entrained blobs, and the relative humidity of the entrained air. We found that the broadening of the DSD due to entrainment and isobaric mixing for a specific value of the entrained air relative humidity depends only on the eddy mixing time scale and the LWC after mixing. Broadening increases substantially as the evaporation time scale decreases due to decreasing relative humidity of the entrained air. Our results also show that it is possible to parameterize the effects of entrainment and mixing on the droplet number concentration. The comprehensive results obtained for one set of values of entrained air relative humidity, droplet size, and droplet concentration should be extended to other values.

  9. Observed correlations between aerosol and cloud properties in an Indian Ocean trade cumulus regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pistone, Kristina; Praveen, Puppala S.; Thomas, Rick M.; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Wilcox, Eric M.; Bender, Frida A.-M.

    2017-04-01

    There are multiple factors which affect the micro- and macrophysical properties of clouds, including the atmospheric vertical structure and dominant meteorological conditions in addition to aerosol concentration, all of which may be coupled to one another. In the quest to determine aerosol effects on clouds, these potential relationships must be understood. As bio- and fossil fuel combustion has increased in southeast Asia, corresponding increases in atmospheric aerosol pollution have been seen over the surrounding regions. These emissions notably include black carbon (BC) aerosols, which absorb rather than reflect solar radiation, affecting the atmosphere over the Indian Ocean through direct warming in addition to modifying cloud microphysical properties. The CARDEX (Cloud, Aerosol, Radiative forcing, Dynamics EXperiment) field campaign was conducted during the winter monsoon season (February and March) of 2012 in the northern Indian Ocean, a region dominated by trade cumulus clouds. During CARDEX, small unmanned aircraft were deployed, measuring aerosol, radiation, cloud, water vapor fluxes, and meteorological properties while a surface observatory collected continuous measurements of atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV), water vapor fluxes, surface and total-column aerosol, and cloud liquid water path (LWP). We present observations which indicate a positive correlation between aerosol and cloud LWP only when considering cases with low atmospheric water vapor (PWV)

  10. From large-eddy simulation to multi-UAVs sampling of shallow cumulus clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamraoui, Fayçal; Roberts, Greg; Burnet, Frédéric

    2016-04-01

    In-situ sampling of clouds that can provide simultaneous measurements at satisfying spatio-temporal resolutions to capture 3D small scale physical processes continues to present challenges. This project (SKYSCANNER) aims at bringing together cloud sampling strategies using a swarm of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) based on Large-eddy simulation (LES). The multi-UAV-based field campaigns with a personalized sampling strategy for individual clouds and cloud fields will significantly improve the understanding of the unresolved cloud physical processes. An extensive set of LES experiments for case studies from ARM-SGP site have been performed using MesoNH model at high resolutions down to 10 m. The carried out simulations led to establishing a macroscopic model that quantifies the interrelationship between micro- and macrophysical properties of shallow convective clouds. Both the geometry and evolution of individual clouds are critical to multi-UAV cloud sampling and path planning. The preliminary findings of the current project reveal several linear relationships that associate many cloud geometric parameters to cloud related meteorological variables. In addition, the horizontal wind speed indicates a proportional impact on cloud number concentration as well as triggering and prolonging the occurrence of cumulus clouds. In the framework of the joint collaboration that involves a Multidisciplinary Team (including institutes specializing in aviation, robotics and atmospheric science), this model will be a reference point for multi-UAVs sampling strategies and path planning.

  11. A Cloud-resolving Study on the Role of Cumulus Merger in MCS with Heavy Precipitation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The cumulus merging processes in generating the mesoscale convective system (MCS) on 23 August 2001 in the Beijing region are studied by using a cloud-resolving mesoscale model of MM5. The results suggest that the merger processes occurred among isolated convective cells formed in high mountain region during southerly moving process play critical role in forming MCS and severe precipitating weather events such as hailfall, heavy rain, downburst and high-frequency lightning in the region. The formation of the MCS experiences multi-scale merging processes from single-cell scale merging to cloud cluster-scale merging, and high core merging. The merger process can apparently alter cloud dynamical and microphysical properties through enhancing both low- and middle-level forcing. Also, lightning flash rates are enhanced by the production of more intense and deeper convective cells by the merger process, especially by which, the more graupel-like ice particles are formed in clouds. The explosive convective development and the late peak lightning flash rate can be found during merging process.

  12. Effect of Mitochondrial Transplantation from Cumulus Granular Cells to the Early Embryos of Aged Mice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Objective To assess the role of mitochondria in the early embryonic development of ageing mice.Methods Mitochondria isolated from cumulus granular cells of aged mice were microinjected into oocytes or zygotes of aged mice. In the setting of oocyte injection, mitochondria were transferred via intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI+MIT), and ICSI without mitochondrial transfer. In the setting of zygote injection, mitochondria were directly microinjected into fertilized oocytes (MIT), and those injected with buffer alone (mock injection) or not injected (uninjected) served as controls.Results Although the rates of oocyte cleavage between ICSI and ICSI+MIT groups were not statistically different (P>0.05), the rate of blastocyst in the ICSI+MIT group was significantly higher than that in ICSI group (P<0.05). Although both the cleavage and blastocyst rates of mock injection group were significantly lower than those of uninjected group (P<0.05), likely due to mechanical damages of the cells by microinjection, the decrease of these rates was prevented by mitochondrial transfer. After mitochondrial transfer, the rates of both cleavage and blastocyst were significantly improved over the mock-injection group (P<0.05).Conclusion Mitochondrial transplantation can improve the developmental potential of early embryos of aged mice.

  13. Grb10 characterization in bovine cumulus oocyte complexes from different follicle sizes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Roberto Antunes da Rosa

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to investigate the mRNA expression and protein localization of Grb10 gene in bovine cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs from different follicle sizes. Firstly, it was investigated the mRNA expression to correlate with maturation rates. COCs from follicles at 1-3, 4-6, 6-8 and >8mm were used to evaluate Grb10 gene expression by qRT-PCR assay and nuclear maturation rates. It was observed that more competent oocytes (from follicles at 6-8 and >8mm; P>0.05, had lower Grb10 mRNA expression levels when compared to the oocytes from follicles at 1-3 and 4-6mm (P>0.05. After it was performed an immunofluorescence analysis in COCs from different follicle sizes (1-3, 4-6, 6-8 and >8mm to investigate Grb10 protein localization. Samples were incubated with primary antibody: Polyclonal rabbit anti-Grb10 (1:100. Primary antibody was detected using goat anti-rabbit IgG antibody conjugated with Alexa Fluor 488 (1:500. Positive fluorescence signal was detected in all analyzed samples but less evident in COCs from largest follicles. These results characterized Grb10 gene in bovine COC and provide evidences for its involvement during oocyte molecular maturation.

  14. Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing

    KAUST Repository

    Toye, Habib

    2017-05-26

    We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation and of the Data Research Testbed (DART) for ensemble data assimilation. DART has been configured to integrate all members of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) in parallel, based on which we adapted the ensemble operations in DART to use an invariant ensemble, i.e., an ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) algorithm. This approach requires only single forward model integration in the forecast step and therefore saves substantial computational cost. To deal with the strong seasonal variability of the Red Sea, the EnOI ensemble is then seasonally selected from a climatology of long-term model outputs. Observations of remote sensing sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) are assimilated every 3 days. Real-time atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as forcing in different assimilation experiments. We investigate the behaviors of the EAKF and (seasonal-) EnOI and compare their performances for assimilating and forecasting the circulation of the Red Sea. We further assess the sensitivity of the assimilation system to various filtering parameters (ensemble size, inflation) and atmospheric forcing.

  15. Ensemble data assimilation in the Red Sea: sensitivity to ensemble selection and atmospheric forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toye, Habib; Zhan, Peng; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Kartadikaria, Aditya R.; Huang, Huang; Knio, Omar; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2017-07-01

    We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation and of the Data Research Testbed (DART) for ensemble data assimilation. DART has been configured to integrate all members of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) in parallel, based on which we adapted the ensemble operations in DART to use an invariant ensemble, i.e., an ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) algorithm. This approach requires only single forward model integration in the forecast step and therefore saves substantial computational cost. To deal with the strong seasonal variability of the Red Sea, the EnOI ensemble is then seasonally selected from a climatology of long-term model outputs. Observations of remote sensing sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) are assimilated every 3 days. Real-time atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as forcing in different assimilation experiments. We investigate the behaviors of the EAKF and (seasonal-) EnOI and compare their performances for assimilating and forecasting the circulation of the Red Sea. We further assess the sensitivity of the assimilation system to various filtering parameters (ensemble size, inflation) and atmospheric forcing.

  16. Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dynamic ensemble copula coupling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.

    2015-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when statistical calibration of the ensemble forecasts...... is applied for each lead time and location independently. Non-parametric approaches allow the reconstruction of spatio-temporal joint probability distributions at a low computational cost.For example, the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) method consists in rebuilding the multivariate aspect of the forecast...... from the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error...

  17. Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dual ensemble copula coupling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.

    2016-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when statistical calibration of the ensemble forecasts...... is applied for each lead time and location independently. Non-parametric approaches allow the reconstruction of spatio-temporal joint probability distributions at a low computational cost. For example, the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) method rebuilds the multivariate aspect of the forecast from...... the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new...

  18. Multiscale macromolecular simulation: role of evolving ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singharoy, A; Joshi, H; Ortoleva, P J

    2012-10-22

    Multiscale analysis provides an algorithm for the efficient simulation of macromolecular assemblies. This algorithm involves the coevolution of a quasiequilibrium probability density of atomic configurations and the Langevin dynamics of spatial coarse-grained variables denoted order parameters (OPs) characterizing nanoscale system features. In practice, implementation of the probability density involves the generation of constant OP ensembles of atomic configurations. Such ensembles are used to construct thermal forces and diffusion factors that mediate the stochastic OP dynamics. Generation of all-atom ensembles at every Langevin time step is computationally expensive. Here, multiscale computation for macromolecular systems is made more efficient by a method that self-consistently folds in ensembles of all-atom configurations constructed in an earlier step, history, of the Langevin evolution. This procedure accounts for the temporal evolution of these ensembles, accurately providing thermal forces and diffusions. It is shown that efficiency and accuracy of the OP-based simulations is increased via the integration of this historical information. Accuracy improves with the square root of the number of historical timesteps included in the calculation. As a result, CPU usage can be decreased by a factor of 3-8 without loss of accuracy. The algorithm is implemented into our existing force-field based multiscale simulation platform and demonstrated via the structural dynamics of viral capsomers.

  19. Control and Synchronization of Neuron Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Jr-Shin; Ruths, Justin

    2011-01-01

    Synchronization of oscillations is a phenomenon prevalent in natural, social, and engineering systems. Controlling synchronization of oscillating systems is motivated by a wide range of applications from neurological treatment of Parkinson's disease to the design of neurocomputers. In this article, we study the control of an ensemble of uncoupled neuron oscillators described by phase models. We examine controllability of such a neuron ensemble for various phase models and, furthermore, study the related optimal control problems. In particular, by employing Pontryagin's maximum principle, we analytically derive optimal controls for spiking single- and two-neuron systems, and analyze the applicability of the latter to an ensemble system. Finally, we present a robust computational method for optimal control of spiking neurons based on pseudospectral approximations. The methodology developed here is universal to the control of general nonlinear phase oscillators.

  20. On large deviations for ensembles of distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrychev, D. A.

    2013-11-01

    The paper is concerned with the large deviations problem in the Freidlin-Wentzell formulation without the assumption of the uniqueness of the solution to the equation involving white noise. In other words, it is assumed that for each \\varepsilon>0 the nonempty set \\mathscr P_\\varepsilon of weak solutions is not necessarily a singleton. Analogues of a number of concepts in the theory of large deviations are introduced for the set \\{\\mathscr P_\\varepsilon,\\,\\varepsilon>0\\}, hereafter referred to as an ensemble of distributions. The ensembles of weak solutions of an n-dimensional stochastic Navier-Stokes system and stochastic wave equation with power-law nonlinearity are shown to be uniformly exponentially tight. An idempotent Wiener process in a Hilbert space and idempotent partial differential equations are defined. The accumulation points in the sense of large deviations of the ensembles in question are shown to be weak solutions of the corresponding idempotent equations. Bibliography: 14 titles.

  1. Cavity cooling of an ensemble spin system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Christopher J; Borneman, Troy W; Cory, David G

    2014-02-07

    We describe how sideband cooling techniques may be applied to large spin ensembles in magnetic resonance. Using the Tavis-Cummings model in the presence of a Rabi drive, we solve a Markovian master equation describing the joint spin-cavity dynamics to derive cooling rates as a function of ensemble size. Our calculations indicate that the coupled angular momentum subspaces of a spin ensemble containing roughly 10(11) electron spins may be polarized in a time many orders of magnitude shorter than the typical thermal relaxation time. The described techniques should permit efficient removal of entropy for spin-based quantum information processors and fast polarization of spin samples. The proposed application of a standard technique in quantum optics to magnetic resonance also serves to reinforce the connection between the two fields, which has recently begun to be explored in further detail due to the development of hybrid designs for manufacturing noise-resilient quantum devices.

  2. Characteristic polynomials in real Ginibre ensembles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akemann, G; Phillips, M J [Department of Mathematical Sciences and BURSt Research Centre, Brunel University West London, UB8 3PH Uxbridge (United Kingdom); Sommers, H-J [Fachbereich Physik, Universitaet Duisburg-Essen, 47048 Duisburg (Germany)], E-mail: Gernot.Akemann@brunel.ac.uk, E-mail: Michael.Phillips@brunel.ac.uk, E-mail: H.J.Sommers@uni-due.de

    2009-01-09

    We calculate the average of two characteristic polynomials for the real Ginibre ensemble of asymmetric random matrices, and its chiral counterpart. Considered as quadratic forms they determine a skew-symmetric kernel from which all complex eigenvalue correlations can be derived. Our results are obtained in a very simple fashion without going to an eigenvalue representation, and are completely new in the chiral case. They hold for Gaussian ensembles which are partly symmetric, with kernels given in terms of Hermite and Laguerre polynomials respectively, depending on an asymmetry parameter. This allows us to interpolate between the maximally asymmetric real Ginibre and the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble, as well as their chiral counterparts. (fast track communication)

  3. Embedded random matrix ensembles in quantum physics

    CERN Document Server

    Kota, V K B

    2014-01-01

    Although used with increasing frequency in many branches of physics, random matrix ensembles are not always sufficiently specific to account for important features of the physical system at hand. One refinement which retains the basic stochastic approach but allows for such features consists in the use of embedded ensembles.  The present text is an exhaustive introduction to and survey of this important field. Starting with an easy-to-read introduction to general random matrix theory, the text then develops the necessary concepts from the beginning, accompanying the reader to the frontiers of present-day research. With some notable exceptions, to date these ensembles have primarily been applied in nuclear spectroscopy. A characteristic example is the use of a random two-body interaction in the framework of the nuclear shell model. Yet, topics in atomic physics, mesoscopic physics, quantum information science and statistical mechanics of isolated finite quantum systems can also be addressed using these ensemb...

  4. Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting has a long history from meteorological modelling, as an indication of the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process the ensembles as the they often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters varying in space and time, while giving a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, which makes it unsuitable for our purpose. Our post-processing method of the ensembles is developed in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu), where we are making forecasts for whole Europe, and based on observations from around 700 catchments. As the target is flood forecasting, we are also more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than in a good prediction of the entire flow regime. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different meteorological forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to estimate the total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but we are adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process to force a spatial correlation of the parameters. The penalty takes

  5. Circular β ensembles, CMV representation, characteristic polynomials

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SU ZhongGen

    2009-01-01

    In this note we first briefly review some recent progress in the study of the circular β ensemble on the unit circle, where 0 > 0 is a model parameter. In the special cases β = 1,2 and 4, this ensemble describes the joint probability density of eigenvalues of random orthogonal, unitary and sympletic matrices, respectively. For general β, Killip and Nenciu discovered a five-diagonal sparse matrix model, the CMV representation. This representation is new even in the case β = 2; and it has become a powerful tool for studying the circular β ensemble. We then give an elegant derivation for the moment identities of characteristic polynomials via the link with orthogonal polynomials on the unit circle.

  6. Statistical ensembles and fragmentation of finite nuclei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, P.; Mallik, S.; Chaudhuri, G.

    2017-09-01

    Statistical models based on different ensembles are very commonly used to describe the nuclear multifragmentation reaction in heavy ion collisions at intermediate energies. Canonical model results are more appropriate for finite nuclei calculations while those obtained from the grand canonical ones are more easily calculable. A transformation relation has been worked out for converting results of finite nuclei from grand canonical to canonical and vice versa. The formula shows that, irrespective of the particle number fluctuation in the grand canonical ensemble, exact canonical results can be recovered for observables varying linearly or quadratically with the number of particles. This result is of great significance since the baryon and charge conservation constraints can make the exact canonical calculations extremely difficult in general. This concept developed in this work can be extended in future for transformation to ensembles where analytical solutions do not exist. The applicability of certain equations (isoscaling, etc.) in the regime of finite nuclei can also be tested using this transformation relation.

  7. Ensemble Enabled Weighted PageRank

    CERN Document Server

    Luo, Dongsheng; Hu, Renjun; Duan, Liang; Ma, Shuai

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes our solution for WSDM Cup 2016. Ranking the query independent importance of scholarly articles is a critical and challenging task, due to the heterogeneity and dynamism of entities involved. Our approach is called Ensemble enabled Weighted PageRank (EWPR). To do this, we first propose Time-Weighted PageRank that extends PageRank by introducing a time decaying factor. We then develop an ensemble method to assemble the authorities of the heterogeneous entities involved in scholarly articles. We finally propose to use external data sources to further improve the ranking accuracy. Our experimental study shows that our EWPR is a good choice for ranking scholarly articles.

  8. Aerosol effects on the development of cumulus clouds over the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xu; Bei, Naifang; Liu, Hongli; Cao, Junji; Xing, Li; Lei, Wenfang; Molina, Luisa T.; Li, Guohui

    2017-06-01

    The aerosol-cloud interaction over the Tibetan Plateau has been investigated using a cloud-resolving weather research and forecasting model with a two-moment bulk microphysical scheme including aerosol effects on cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei. Two types of cumulus clouds with a similar convective available potential energy, occurring over the Tibetan Plateau (Cu-TP) and North China Plain (Cu-NCP) in August 2014, are simulated to explore the response of convective clouds to aerosols. A set of aerosol profiles is used in the simulations, with the surface aerosol number concentration varying from 20 to 9000 cm-3 and the sulfate mass concentration varying from 0.02 to 9.0 µg cm-3. Increasing aerosol concentrations generally enhances the cloud core updraft and maximum updraft, intensifying convections in Cu-TP and Cu-NCP. However, the core updraft is much stronger in Cu-TP than Cu-NCP, because of the early occurrence of the glaciation process in Cu-TP that is triggered at an elevation above 4000 m. The precipitation increases steadily with aerosol concentrations in Cu-NCP, caused by the suppression of the warm rain but occurrence of efficient mix-phased precipitation due to the reduced cloud droplet size. The precipitation in Cu-TP also increases with aerosol concentrations, but the precipitation enhancement is not substantial compared to that in Cu-NCP with high aerosol concentrations. The aerosol-induced intensification of convections in Cu-TP not only facilitates the precipitation but also transports more ice-phase hydrometeors into the upper troposphere to decrease the precipitation efficiency. Considering the very clean atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau, elevated aerosol concentrations can remarkably enhance convections due to its specific topography, which not only warms the middle troposphere to influence the Asian summer monsoon but also delivers hydrometeors into the upper troposphere to allow more water vapor to travel into the lower stratosphere.

  9. Morphology and location of attached follicular cumulus-oocyte complexes in horses, cattle and llamas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Campo, M R; Del Campo, C H; Mapletoft, R J; Ginther, O J

    1995-02-01

    Morphology and location of the attached cumulus-oocyte complex (COC) were studied in slaughter-house ovaries in horses (49 follicles, 9 to 44 mm), cattle (68 follicles, 6 to 18 mm), and llamas (38 follicles, 3 to 14 mm). The expected point of ovulation was marked, using the ovulation fossa in mares and the center of the projecting follicular surface in cattle and llamas. A follicle was dissected from an ovary, and tissue was removed from the follicle until the COC became visible by transillumination. However, most llama follicles protruded prominently from the ovarian surface so that dissection was not required to locate the COC. The COC was more readily recognized from the external follicular surface in mares and llamas than in cattle, primarily because of a dark oocyte. Compact COC's projected into the antrum with a smooth dome-shape in horses. The COC's in cattle were also dome-shaped but were more irregular and a few contained prominent processes. The mean diameter of the isolated follicle was calculated from 3 planes, except that in llamas the follicles were spherical so that the 3 dimensions were identical. The angle between a straight line connecting the expected ovulation site and the opposite pole and a straight line from the ovulation site to the COC was defined as the COC-location angle. This angle was chosen because it is unaltered by size of a sphere (45 degrees for a COC at the equator). The mean (+/-SEM) COC-location angle differed (P < 0.01) among horses (39.9 +/- 3.3), cattle (50.0 +/- 2.5), and llamas (64.8 +/- 2.1). In mares, the locations of the COC's did not differ from equality between follicular hemispheres, but in cattle and llamas the COC's were located with greater frequency (P < 0.05) in the hemisphere containing the expected ovulation site (cattle, 65%; llamas, 91%).

  10. Evaluation of the atmospheric transport in a GCM using radon measurements: sensitivity to cumulus convection parameterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Zhang

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The radioactive species radon (222Rn has long been used as a test tracer for the numerical simulation of large scale transport processes. In this study, radon transport experiments are carried out using an atmospheric GCM with a finite-difference dynamical core, the van Leer type FFSL advection algorithm, and two state-of-the-art cumulus convection parameterization schemes. Measurements of surface concentration and vertical distribution of radon collected from the literature are used as references in model evaluation.

    The simulated radon concentrations using both convection schemes turn out to be consistent with earlier studies with many other models. Comparison with measurements indicates that at the locations where significant seasonal variations are observed in reality, the model can reproduce both the monthly mean surface radon concentration and the annual cycle quite well. At those sites where the seasonal variation is not large, the model is able to give a correct magnitude of the annual mean. In East Asia, where radon simulations are rarely reported in the literature, detailed analysis shows that our results compare reasonably well with the observations.

    The most evident changes caused by the use of a different convection scheme are found in the vertical distribution of the tracer. The scheme associated with weaker upward transport gives higher radon concentration up to about 6 km above the surface, and lower values in higher altitudes. In the lower part of the atmosphere results from this scheme does not agree as well with the measurements as the other scheme. Differences from 6 km to the model top are even larger, although we are not yet able to tell which simulation is better due to the lack of observations at such high altitudes.

  11. Evaluation of the atmospheric transport in a GCM using radon measurements: sensitivity to cumulus convection parameterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Zhang

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The radioactive species radon (222Rn has long been used as a test tracer for the numerical simulation of large scale transport processes. In this study, radon transport experiments are carried out using an atmospheric GCM with a finite-difference dynamical core, the van Leer type FFSL advection algorithm and two state-of-the-art cumulus convection parameterization schemes. Measurements of surface concentration and vertical distribution of radon collected from literature are used as references in model evaluation.

    The simulated radon concentrations using both convection schemes turn out to be consistent with earlier studies with many other models. Comparison with measurements indicates that at the locations where significant seasonal variations are observed in reality, the model can reproduce both the monthly mean surface radon concentration and the annual cycle quite well. At those sites where the seasonal variation is not large, the model is able to give a correct magnitude of the annual mean. In East Asia, where radon simulations are rarely reported in literature, detailed analysis shows that our results compare reasonably well with the observations.

    The most evident changes caused by the use of a different convection scheme are found in the vertical distribution of the tracer. The scheme associated with a weaker upward transport gives higher radon concentration up to about 6 km above the surface, and lower values in higher altitudes. In the lower part of the atmosphere results from this scheme does not agree as well with the measurements as the other scheme. Differences from 6 km to the model top are even larger, although we are not yet able to tell which simulation is better due to the lack of observations at such high altitudes.

  12. Ensemble Eclipse: A Process for Prefab Development Environment for the Ensemble Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallick, Michael N.; Mittman, David S.; Shams, Khawaja, S.; Bachmann, Andrew G.; Ludowise, Melissa

    2013-01-01

    This software simplifies the process of having to set up an Eclipse IDE programming environment for the members of the cross-NASA center project, Ensemble. It achieves this by assembling all the necessary add-ons and custom tools/preferences. This software is unique in that it allows developers in the Ensemble Project (approximately 20 to 40 at any time) across multiple NASA centers to set up a development environment almost instantly and work on Ensemble software. The software automatically has the source code repositories and other vital information and settings included. The Eclipse IDE is an open-source development framework. The NASA (Ensemble-specific) version of the software includes Ensemble-specific plug-ins as well as settings for the Ensemble project. This software saves developers the time and hassle of setting up a programming environment, making sure that everything is set up in the correct manner for Ensemble development. Existing software (i.e., standard Eclipse) requires an intensive setup process that is both time-consuming and error prone. This software is built once by a single user and tested, allowing other developers to simply download and use the software

  13. Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used as a method in meteorological modelling to indicate the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, as the ensembles often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process them. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters which are different in space and time, but still can give a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, and cannot directly be regionalized in the way we would like, so we suggest a different path below. The target of our work is to create a mean forecast with uncertainty bounds for a large number of locations in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu) We are therefore more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than the forecast skill of lower runoff levels. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to find a total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but assuring that they have some spatial correlation, by adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process. This can in some cases have a slight negative

  14. Metal Ion-dependent Heavy Chain Transfer Activity of TSG-6 Mediates Assembly of the Cumulus-Oocyte Matrix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, David C; Birchenough, Holly L; Ali, Tariq; Rugg, Marilyn S; Waltho, Jon P; Ievoli, Elena; Jowitt, Thomas A; Enghild, Jan J; Richter, Ralf P; Salustri, Antonietta; Milner, Caroline M; Day, Anthony J

    2015-11-27

    The matrix polysaccharide hyaluronan (HA) has a critical role in the expansion of the cumulus cell-oocyte complex (COC), a process that is necessary for ovulation and fertilization in most mammals. Hyaluronan is organized into a cross-linked network by the cooperative action of three proteins, inter-α-inhibitor (IαI), pentraxin-3, and TNF-stimulated gene-6 (TSG-6), driving the expansion of the COC and providing the cumulus matrix with its required viscoelastic properties. Although it is known that matrix stabilization involves the TSG-6-mediated transfer of IαI heavy chains (HCs) onto hyaluronan (to form covalent HC·HA complexes that are cross-linked by pentraxin-3) and that this occurs via the formation of covalent HC·TSG-6 intermediates, the underlying molecular mechanisms are not well understood. Here, we have determined the tertiary structure of the CUB module from human TSG-6, identifying a calcium ion-binding site and chelating glutamic acid residue that mediate the formation of HC·TSG-6. This occurs via an initial metal ion-dependent, non-covalent, interaction between TSG-6 and HCs that also requires the presence of an HC-associated magnesium ion. In addition, we have found that the well characterized hyaluronan-binding site in the TSG-6 Link module is not used for recognition during transfer of HCs onto HA. Analysis of TSG-6 mutants (with impaired transferase and/or hyaluronan-binding functions) revealed that although the TSG-6-mediated formation of HC·HA complexes is essential for the expansion of mouse COCs in vitro, the hyaluronan-binding function of TSG-6 does not play a major role in the stabilization of the murine cumulus matrix.

  15. Abortive expansion of the cumulus and impaired fertility in mice lacking the prostaglandin E receptor subtype EP2

    OpenAIRE

    Hizaki, Hiroko; Segi, Eri; Sugimoto, Yukihiko; Hirose, Masaya; Saji, Tomomi; Ushikubi, Fumitaka; Matsuoka, Toshiyuki; Noda, Yoichi; Tanaka, Takashi; Yoshida, Nobuaki; Narumiya, Shuh; Ichikawa, Atsushi

    1999-01-01

    Female mice lacking the gene encoding the prostaglandin (PG) E2 receptor subtype EP2 (EP2−/−) become pregnant and deliver their pups at term, but with a much reduced litter size. A decrease in ovulation number and a much reduced fertilization rate were observed in EP2−/− females without difference of the uterus to support implantation of wild-type embryos. Treatment with gonadotropins induced EP2 mRNA expression in the cumulus cells of ovarian follicles of wild-type mice. The immature cumuli ...

  16. Expression profiling of cumulus cells reveals functional changes during ovulation and central roles of prostaglandin EP2 receptor in cAMP signaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamba, Shigero; Yodoi, Rieko; Morimoto, Kazushi; Inazumi, Tomoaki; Sukeno, Mamiko; Segi-Nishida, Eri; Okuno, Yasushi; Tsujimoto, Gozoh; Narumiya, Shuh; Sugimoto, Yukihiko

    2010-06-01

    To understand the role of prostaglandin (PG) receptor EP2 (Ptger2) signaling in ovulation and fertilization, we investigated time-dependent expression profiles in wild-type (WT) and Ptger2(-/-) cumuli before and after ovulation by using microarrays. We prepared cumulus cells from mice just before and 3, 9 and 14 h after human chorionic gonadotropin injection. Key genes including cAMP-related and epidermal growth factor (EGF) genes, as well as extracellular matrix- (ECM-) related and chemokine genes were up-regulated in WT cumuli at 3 h and 14 h, respectively. Ptger2 deficiency differently affected the expression of many of the key genes at 3 h and 14 h. These results indicate that the gene expression profile of cumulus cells greatly differs before and after ovulation, and in each situation, PGE(2)-EP2 signaling plays a critical role in cAMP-regulated gene expression in the cumulus cells under physiological conditions.

  17. An Ensemble Approach for Expanding Queries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-01

    vincristine; thalidomide; painful; cisplatin; oxaliplatin; charcot -marie-tooth disease ; drugs; neuropathy Ensemble expansion child of, asthma, kids...system disorders; peripheral nerve diseases ; peripheral neuropathies; peripheral nervous system disorder; peripheral nervous system disease ...peripheral nerve disease ; peripheral nerve disorders, peripheral nerve disorder Relation expansion offspring, child of, of child, child find

  18. NYYD Ensemble ja Riho Sibul / Anneli Remme

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Remme, Anneli, 1968-

    2001-01-01

    Gavin Bryarsi teos "Jesus' Blood Never Failed Me Yet" NYYD Ensemble'i ja Riho Sibula esituses 27. detsembril Pauluse kirikus Tartus ja 28. detsembril Rootsi- Mihkli kirikus Tallinnas. Kaastegevad Tartu Ülikooli Kammerkoor (Tartus) ja kammerkoor Voces Musicales (Tallinnas). Kunstiline juht Olari Elts

  19. A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark A. Finney; Isaac C. Grenfell; Charles W. McHugh; Robert C. Seli; Diane Trethewey; Richard D. Stratton; Stuart Brittain

    2011-01-01

    An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis...

  20. NYYD Ensemble ja Riho Sibul / Anneli Remme

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Remme, Anneli, 1968-

    2001-01-01

    Gavin Bryarsi teos "Jesus' Blood Never Failed Me Yet" NYYD Ensemble'i ja Riho Sibula esituses 27. detsembril Pauluse kirikus Tartus ja 28. detsembril Rootsi- Mihkli kirikus Tallinnas. Kaastegevad Tartu Ülikooli Kammerkoor (Tartus) ja kammerkoor Voces Musicales (Tallinnas). Kunstiline juht Olari Elts

  1. Eigenstate Gibbs ensemble in integrable quantum systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandy, Sourav; Sen, Arnab; Das, Arnab; Dhar, Abhishek

    2016-12-01

    The eigenstate thermalization hypothesis conjectures that for a thermodynamically large system in one of its energy eigenstates, the reduced density matrix describing any finite subsystem is determined solely by a set of relevant conserved quantities. In a chaotic quantum system, only the energy is expected to play that role and hence eigenstates appear locally thermal. Integrable systems, on the other hand, possess an extensive number of such conserved quantities and therefore the reduced density matrix requires specification of all the corresponding parameters (generalized Gibbs ensemble). However, here we show by unbiased statistical sampling of the individual eigenstates with a given finite energy density that the local description of an overwhelming majority of these states of even such an integrable system is actually Gibbs-like, i.e., requires only the energy density of the eigenstate. Rare eigenstates that cannot be represented by the Gibbs ensemble can also be sampled efficiently by our method and their local properties are then shown to be described by appropriately truncated generalized Gibbs ensembles. We further show that the presence of these rare eigenstates differentiates the model from the chaotic case and leads to the system being described by a generalized Gibbs ensemble at long time under a unitary dynamics following a sudden quench, even when the initial state is a typical (Gibbs-like) eigenstate of the prequench Hamiltonian.

  2. Locally Accessible Information from Multipartite Ensembles

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SONG Wei

    2009-01-01

    We present a universal Holevo-like upper bound on the locally accessible information for arbitrary multipartite ensembles.This bound allows us to analyze the indistinguishability of a set of orthogonal states under local operations and classical communication.We also derive the upper bound for the capacity of distributed dense coding with multipartite senders and multipartite receivers.

  3. Canonical Ensemble Model for Black Hole Radiation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Jingyi Zhang

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, a canonical ensemble model for the black hole quantum tunnelling radiation is introduced. In this model the probability distribution function corresponding to the emission shell is calculated to second order. The formula of pressure and internal energy of the thermal system is modified, and the fundamental equation of thermodynamics is also discussed.

  4. A Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsyrulnikov, Michael; Rakitko, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    A new ensemble filter that allows for the uncertainty in the prior distribution is proposed and tested. The filter relies on the conditional Gaussian distribution of the state given the model-error and predictability-error covariance matrices. The latter are treated as random matrices and updated in a hierarchical Bayes scheme along with the state. The (hyper)prior distribution of the covariance matrices is assumed to be inverse Wishart. The new Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Filter (HBEF) assimilates ensemble members as generalized observations and allows ordinary observations to influence the covariances. The actual probability distribution of the ensemble members is allowed to be different from the true one. An approximation that leads to a practicable analysis algorithm is proposed. The new filter is studied in numerical experiments with a doubly stochastic one-variable model of "truth". The model permits the assessment of the variance of the truth and the true filtering error variance at each time instance. The HBEF is shown to outperform the EnKF and the HEnKF by Myrseth and Omre (2010) in a wide range of filtering regimes in terms of performance of its primary and secondary filters.

  5. Statistical theory of hierarchical avalanche ensemble

    OpenAIRE

    Olemskoi, Alexander I.

    1999-01-01

    The statistical ensemble of avalanche intensities is considered to investigate diffusion in ultrametric space of hierarchically subordinated avalanches. The stationary intensity distribution and the steady-state current are obtained. The critical avalanche intensity needed to initiate the global avalanche formation is calculated depending on noise intensity. The large time asymptotic for the probability of the global avalanche appearance is derived.

  6. Marking up lattice QCD configurations and ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Coddington, P; Maynard, C M; Pleiter, D; Yoshié, T

    2007-01-01

    QCDml is an XML-based markup language designed for sharing QCD configurations and ensembles world-wide via the International Lattice Data Grid (ILDG). Based on the latest release, we present key ingredients of the QCDml in order to provide some starting points for colleagues in this community to markup valuable configurations and submit them to the ILDG.

  7. A Theoretical Analysis of Why Hybrid Ensembles Work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuo-Wei Hsu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Inspired by the group decision making process, ensembles or combinations of classifiers have been found favorable in a wide variety of application domains. Some researchers propose to use the mixture of two different types of classification algorithms to create a hybrid ensemble. Why does such an ensemble work? The question remains. Following the concept of diversity, which is one of the fundamental elements of the success of ensembles, we conduct a theoretical analysis of why hybrid ensembles work, connecting using different algorithms to accuracy gain. We also conduct experiments on classification performance of hybrid ensembles of classifiers created by decision tree and naïve Bayes classification algorithms, each of which is a top data mining algorithm and often used to create non-hybrid ensembles. Therefore, through this paper, we provide a complement to the theoretical foundation of creating and using hybrid ensembles.

  8. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [2.5 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  9. An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    AghaKouchak, A; Nakhjiri, N; Habib, E

    2013-01-01

    ...) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity...

  10. Ensemble-based Kalman Filters in Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhaoxia PU; Joshua HACKER

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the effectiveness of ensemble Kalman filters in data assimilation with the strongly nonlinear dynamics of the Lorenz-63 model, and in particular their use in predicting the regime transition that occurs when the model jumps from one basin of attraction to the other. Four configurations of the ensemble-based Kalman filtering data assimilation techniques, including the ensemble Kalman filter, ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, ensemble square root filter and ensemble transform Kalman filter, are evaluated with their ability in predicting the regime transition (also called phase transition) and also are compared in terms of their sensitivity to both observational and sampling errors. The sensitivity of each ensemble-based filter to the size of the ensemble is also examined.

  11. Space Applications for Ensemble Detection and Analysis Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ensemble Detection is both a measurement technique and analysis tool. Like a prism that separates light into spectral bands, an ensemble detector mixes a signal with...

  12. Ensemble-based forecasting at Horns Rev: Ensemble conversion and kernel dressing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    methodology. In a first stage, ensemble forecasts of meteorological variables are converted to power through a suitable power curve model. The relevance and benefits of employing a newly developed orthogonal fitting method for the power curve model over the traditional least-squares one are discussed...... predictive distributions. Such a methodology has the benefit of yielding predictive distributions that are of increased reliability (in a probabilistic sense) in comparison with the raw ensemble forecasts, while taking advantage of their high resolution....... of probabilistic forecasts, the resolution of which may be maximized by using meteorological ensemble predictions as input. The paper concentrates on the test case of the Horns Rev wind farm over a period of approximately one year, in order to describe, apply and discuss a complete ensemble-based forecasting...

  13. Theory and Practice of Phase-aware Ensemble Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulte, J. A.; Georgas, N.

    2016-12-01

    The timing of events represents a source of uncertainty in ensemble forecasting that can produce misleading ensemble statistics. A general theory is presented to overcome drawbacks of traditional ensemble forecasting statistics that perform poorly in the presence of timing disagreements among ensemble members. It was shown, in particular, that ensemble forecasts containing substantial uncertainty in timing can produce non-trivial higher-order statistical moments, rendering the ensemble mean inappropriate as a best available estimate of the future state of the forecast parameter in question. A set of theoretical experiments showed that the existence of large timing differences among ensemble members can produce negative ensemble skewness even when the ensemble members are sinusoids whose amplitudes are drawn from a normal distribution: Consistently, the ensemble mean will tend to fall on the left tail of the normal distribution representing the originally sampled amplitudes, rather than at the mean or median. To remedy the left-tail placement problem of the ensemble mean, a new generally applicable ensemble statistic - the phase-aware ensemble mean - is proposed that is more robust against ensemble skewness resulting from timing spread. The computation of the phase-aware mean involves the transformation of all ensemble members to wavelet space and the subsequent inverse wavelet transformation of the product of the ensemble mean wavelet phase and modulus back to the time domain. The new methods were applied to storm surge reforecasts for Hurricane Irene and Sandy at 8 stations located around the New York City metropolitan area. The phase-aware ensemble mean was found to perform better at detecting the magnitude of events compared to the traditional ensemble mean, consistent with the results from theoretical experiments. The ensemble mean, moreover, was found to be consistently located on the left tail of distributions representing future peak storm surge outcomes. A

  14. Characterization of the effects of metformin on porcine oocyte meiosis and on AMP-activated protein kinase activation in oocytes and cumulus cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilodeau-Goeseels, Sylvie; Magyara, Nora; Collignon, Coralie

    2014-05-01

    The adenosine monophosphate-activated protein kinase (AMPK) activators 5-aminoimidazole-4-carboxamide 1-β-d-ribofuranoside (AICAR) and metformin (MET) inhibit resumption of meiosis in porcine cumulus-enclosed oocytes. The objective of this study was to characterize the inhibitory effect of MET on porcine oocyte meiosis by: (1) determining the effects of an AMPK inhibitor and of inhibitors of signalling pathways involved in MET-induced AMPK activation in other cell types on MET-mediated meiotic arrest in porcine cumulus-enclosed oocytes; (2) determining whether MET and AICAR treatments lead to increased activation of porcine oocyte and/or cumulus cell AMPK as measured by phosphorylation of its substrate acetyl-CoA carboxylase; and (3) determining the effects of inhibition of the AMPK kinase, Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase kinase (CaMKK), and Ca2+ chelation on oocyte meiotic maturation and AMPK activation in porcine oocytes and cumulus cells. The AMPK inhibitor compound C (CC; 1 μM) did not reverse the inhibitory effect of AICAR (1 mM) and MET (2 mM) on porcine oocyte meiosis. Additionally, CC had a significant inhibitory effect on its own. eNOS, c-Src and PI-3 kinase pathway inhibitors did not reverse the effect of metformin on porcine oocyte meiosis. The level of acetyl-CoA carboxylase (ACC) phosphorylation in oocytes and cumulus cells did not change in response to culture in the presence of MET, AICAR, CC, the CaMKK inhibitor STO-609 or the Ca2+ chelator BAPTA-AM for 3 h, but STO-609 increased the percentage of porcine cumulus-enclosed oocytes (CEO) that remained at the germinal vesicle (GV) stage after 24 h of culture. These results indicate that the inhibitory effect of MET and AICAR on porcine oocyte meiosis was probably not mediated through activation of AMPK.

  15. Quantum canonical ensemble: A projection operator approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnus, Wim; Lemmens, Lucien; Brosens, Fons

    2017-09-01

    Knowing the exact number of particles N, and taking this knowledge into account, the quantum canonical ensemble imposes a constraint on the occupation number operators. The constraint particularly hampers the systematic calculation of the partition function and any relevant thermodynamic expectation value for arbitrary but fixed N. On the other hand, fixing only the average number of particles, one may remove the above constraint and simply factorize the traces in Fock space into traces over single-particle states. As is well known, that would be the strategy of the grand-canonical ensemble which, however, comes with an additional Lagrange multiplier to impose the average number of particles. The appearance of this multiplier can be avoided by invoking a projection operator that enables a constraint-free computation of the partition function and its derived quantities in the canonical ensemble, at the price of an angular or contour integration. Introduced in the recent past to handle various issues related to particle-number projected statistics, the projection operator approach proves beneficial to a wide variety of problems in condensed matter physics for which the canonical ensemble offers a natural and appropriate environment. In this light, we present a systematic treatment of the canonical ensemble that embeds the projection operator into the formalism of second quantization while explicitly fixing N, the very number of particles rather than the average. Being applicable to both bosonic and fermionic systems in arbitrary dimensions, transparent integral representations are provided for the partition function ZN and the Helmholtz free energy FN as well as for two- and four-point correlation functions. The chemical potential is not a Lagrange multiplier regulating the average particle number but can be extracted from FN+1 -FN, as illustrated for a two-dimensional fermion gas.

  16. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Jinyin Ye; Yuehong Shao; Zhijia Li

    2016-01-01

    TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble) was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment). It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability fo...

  17. Ensembles of signal transduction models using Pareto Optimal Ensemble Techniques (POETs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Sang Ok; Chakrabarti, Anirikh; Varner, Jeffrey D

    2010-07-01

    Mathematical modeling of complex gene expression programs is an emerging tool for understanding disease mechanisms. However, identification of large models sometimes requires training using qualitative, conflicting or even contradictory data sets. One strategy to address this challenge is to estimate experimentally constrained model ensembles using multiobjective optimization. In this study, we used Pareto Optimal Ensemble Techniques (POETs) to identify a family of proof-of-concept signal transduction models. POETs integrate Simulated Annealing (SA) with Pareto optimality to identify models near the optimal tradeoff surface between competing training objectives. We modeled a prototypical-signaling network using mass-action kinetics within an ordinary differential equation (ODE) framework (64 ODEs in total). The true model was used to generate synthetic immunoblots from which the POET algorithm identified the 117 unknown model parameters. POET generated an ensemble of signaling models, which collectively exhibited population-like behavior. For example, scaled gene expression levels were approximately normally distributed over the ensemble following the addition of extracellular ligand. Also, the ensemble recovered robust and fragile features of the true model, despite significant parameter uncertainty. Taken together, these results suggest that experimentally constrained model ensembles could capture qualitatively important network features without exact parameter information.

  18. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...

  19. Exploring and Listening to Chinese Classical Ensembles in General Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenzhuo

    2017-01-01

    Music diversity is valued in theory, but the extent to which it is efficiently presented in music class remains limited. Within this article, I aim to bridge this gap by introducing four genres of Chinese classical ensembles--Qin and Xiao duets, Jiang Nan bamboo and silk ensembles, Cantonese ensembles, and contemporary Chinese orchestras--into the…

  20. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modeling using ensemble Kalman filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn; Madsen, H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh;

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater head and stream discharge is assimilated using the ensemble transform Kalman filter in an integrated hydrological model with the aim of studying the relationship between the filter performance and the ensemble size. In an attempt to reduce the required number of ensemble members...

  1. Ice formation and development in aged, wintertime cumulus over the UK: observations and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, I.; Bower, K. N.; Choularton, T. W.; Dearden, C.; Crosier, J.; Westbrook, C.; Capes, G.; Coe, H.; Connolly, P. J.; Dorsey, J. R.; Gallagher, M. W.; Williams, P.; Trembath, J.; Cui, Z.; Blyth, A.

    2012-06-01

    In situ high resolution aircraft measurements of cloud microphysical properties were made in coordination with ground based remote sensing observations of a line of small cumulus clouds, using Radar and Lidar, as part of the Aerosol Properties, PRocesses And InfluenceS on the Earth's climate (APPRAISE) project. A narrow but extensive line (~100 km long) of shallow convective clouds over the southern UK was studied. Cloud top temperatures were observed to be higher than -8 °C, but the clouds were seen to consist of supercooled droplets and varying concentrations of ice particles. No ice particles were observed to be falling into the cloud tops from above. Current parameterisations of ice nuclei (IN) numbers predict too few particles will be active as ice nuclei to account for ice particle concentrations at the observed, near cloud top, temperatures (-7.5 °C). The role of mineral dust particles, consistent with concentrations observed near the surface, acting as high temperature IN is considered important in this case. It was found that very high concentrations of ice particles (up to 100 L-1) could be produced by secondary ice particle production providing the observed small amount of primary ice (about 0.01 L-1) was present to initiate it. This emphasises the need to understand primary ice formation in slightly supercooled clouds. It is shown using simple calculations that the Hallett-Mossop process (HM) is the likely source of the secondary ice. Model simulations of the case study were performed with the Aerosol Cloud and Precipitation Interactions Model (ACPIM). These parcel model investigations confirmed the HM process to be a very important mechanism for producing the observed high ice concentrations. A key step in generating the high concentrations was the process of collision and coalescence of rain drops, which once formed fell rapidly through the cloud, collecting ice particles which caused them to freeze and form instant large riming particles. The

  2. Observed correlations between aerosol and cloud properties in an Indian Ocean trade cumulus regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Pistone

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available There are many contributing factors which determine the micro- and macrophysical properties of clouds, including atmospheric structure, dominant meteorological conditions, and aerosol concentration, all of which may be coupled to one another. In the quest to determine aerosol effects on clouds, these potential relationships must be understood, as changes in atmospheric conditions due to aerosol may change the expected magnitude of indirect effects by altering cloud properties in unexpected ways. Here we describe several observed correlations between aerosol conditions and cloud and atmospheric properties in the Indian Ocean winter monsoon season. In the CARDEX (Cloud, Aerosol, Radiative forcing, Dynamics EXperiment field campaign conducted in February and March 2012 in the northern Indian Ocean, continuous measurements of atmospheric precipitable water vapor and the liquid water path (LWP of trade cumulus clouds were made, concurrent with measurements of water vapor flux, cloud and aerosol vertical profiles, meteorological data, and surface and total-column aerosol. Here we present evidence of a positive correlation between aerosol and cloud LWP which becomes clear after the data are filtered to control for the natural meteorological variability in the region. We then use the aircraft and ground observatory measurements to explore the mechanisms behind the observed aerosol–LWP correlation. We determine that increased boundary-layer humidity lowering the cloud base is responsible for the observed increase in cloud liquid water. Large-scale analysis indicates that high pollution cases originate with a highly-polluted boundary layer air mass approaching the observatory from a northwesterly direction. This polluted mass exhibits higher temperatures and humidity than the clean case, the former of which may be attributable to heating due to aerosol absorption of solar radiation over the subcontinent. While high temperature conditions dispersed along

  3. Sensitivity of Precipitation over China to Diff erent Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in RegCM4

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张少波; 吕世华; 鲍艳; 马迪

    2015-01-01

    The eff ect of diff erent cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) on precipitation over China is investi-gated by using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM-4.3) coupled with the land surface model BATS1e (Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme version 1e). The ERA-interim data are utilized to drive a group of simulations over a 31-yr period from September 1982 to December 2012. Two typically sensitive regions, i.e., the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP; 29◦–38◦N, 90◦–100◦E) and eastern China (EC; 26◦–32◦N, 110◦–120◦E), are focused on. The results show that all the CPSs have well reproduced the spatial distribution of annual precipitation in China. The simulation with the Emanuel scheme shows an overall overestimation of precipitation in China, diff erent from the other three CPSs which only overestimate over northern and northwestern China but underestimate over southern China. Seasonally, the Tiedtke scheme shows the smallest overestimation in winter and summer, and the best simulation of the annual variance of precipitation. Interannual variations of precipitation among the four CPSs are generally simulated better in summer than in winter, and better for entire China than in the subregions of TP and EC. The precipitation trend is simulated better over EC than over TP, and better in summer than in winter. An overestimate (underestimate) of the East Asian summer monsoon index (EASMI) exists in the simulations with the Grell and the Emanuel (the Kuo and the Tiedtke) schemes. The smallest EASMI bias in the Tiedtke simulation could explain its small precipitation bias. A negative correlation between the EASMI and summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River is found in the Grell and the Emanuel simulations, but was missed by the simulations using the Kuo and the Tiedtke schemes.

  4. Follicular fluid oocyte/cumulus-free DNA concentrations as a potential biomolecular marker of embryo quality and IVF outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimopoulou, M; Anifandis, G; Messini, C I; Dafopoulos, K; Kouris, S; Sotiriou, S; Satra, M; Vamvakopoulos, N; Messinis, I E

    2014-01-01

    The present prospective study examined the follicular fluid oocyte/cumulus-free DNA concentrations (ff o/c-free DNA) during ovarian stimulation and the possible association between ff o/c-free DNA and embryological results such as embryo quality and pregnancy rate. Eighty-three women undergoing IV/ICSI-ET treatments were prospectively included in this study. ff o/c-free DNA was determined by conventional quantitative real time PCR-Sybr green detection approach. The 83 ff samples were categorized in two groups: group 1 (n = 62) with cumulus oocytes complexes (CoCs) ≥2 and group 2 (n = 21) with CoCs = 1. Group 1 revealed significant higher embryo quality in terms of mean score of embryo transfer (MSET), but lower ff o/c-free DNA concentrations compared to group 2. The two groups showed comparable pregnancy rates (positive hCG and clinical pregnancy). The higher the ff o/c-free DNA concentration, the lower the number of produced oocytes. ff o/c-free DNA did not seem to have any direct role in the IVF outcome. Further research is required to clarify whether ff o/c-free DNA is a biomolecular marker of embryo quality and IVF outcome.

  5. Microphysical, Macrophysical and Radiative Signatures of Volcanic Aerosols in Trade Wind Cumulus Observed by the A-Train

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, T.; Remer, L. A.; Yu, H.

    2011-01-01

    Increased aerosol concentrations can raise planetary albedo not only by reflecting sunlight and increasing cloud albedo, but also by changing cloud amount. However, detecting aerosol effect on cloud amount has been elusive to both observations and modeling due to potential buffering mechanisms and convolution of meteorology. Here through a natural experiment provided by long-tem1 degassing of a low-lying volcano and use of A-Train satellite observations, we show modifications of trade cumulus cloud fields including decreased droplet size, decreased precipitation efficiency and increased cloud amount are associated with volcanic aerosols. In addition we find significantly higher cloud tops for polluted clouds. We demonstrate that the observed microphysical and macrophysical changes cannot be explained by synoptic meteorology or the orographic effect of the Hawaiian Islands. The "total shortwave aerosol forcin", resulting from direct and indirect forcings including both cloud albedo and cloud amount. is almost an order of magnitude higher than aerosol direct forcing alone. Furthermore, the precipitation reduction associated with enhanced aerosol leads to large changes in the energetics of air-sea exchange and trade wind boundary layer. Our results represent the first observational evidence of large-scale increase of cloud amount due to aerosols in a trade cumulus regime, which can be used to constrain the representation of aerosol-cloud interactions in climate models. The findings also have implications for volcano-climate interactions and climate mitigation research.

  6. Microphysical, macrophysical and radiative signatures of volcanic aerosols in trade wind cumulus observed by the A-Train

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Yuan

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Increased aerosol concentrations can raise planetary albedo not only by reflecting sunlight and increasing cloud albedo, but also by changing cloud amount. However, detecting aerosol effect on cloud amount has been elusive to both observations and modeling due to potential buffering mechanisms and convolution of meteorology. Here through a natural experiment provided by long-term degassing of a low-lying volcano and use of A-Train satellite observations, we show modifications of trade cumulus cloud fields including decreased droplet size, decreased precipitation efficiency and increased cloud amount are associated with volcanic aerosols. In addition we find significantly higher cloud tops for polluted clouds. We demonstrate that the observed microphysical and macrophysical changes cannot be explained by synoptic meteorology or the orographic effect of the Hawaiian Islands. The "total shortwave aerosol forcin", resulting from direct and indirect forcings including both cloud albedo and cloud amount, is almost an order of magnitude higher than aerosol direct forcing alone. Furthermore, the precipitation reduction associated with enhanced aerosol leads to large changes in the energetics of air-sea exchange and trade wind boundary layer. Our results represent the first observational evidence of large-scale increase of cloud amount due to aerosols in a trade cumulus regime, which can be used to constrain the representation of aerosol-cloud interactions in climate models. The findings also have implications for volcano-climate interactions and climate mitigation research.

  7. Microphysical, macrophysical and radiative signatures of volcanic aerosols in trade wind cumulus observed by the A-Train

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Yuan

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Increased aerosol concentrations can raise planetary albedo not only by reflecting sunlight and increasing cloud albedo, but also by changing cloud amount. However, detecting aerosol effect on cloud amount has been elusive to both observations and modeling due to potential buffering mechanisms and convolution of meteorology. Here through a natural experiment provided by long-term degassing of a low-lying volcano and use of A-Train satellite observations, we show aerosols are associated strongly with modification of trade cumulus cloud fields including decreased droplet size, decreased precipitation efficiency and increased cloud amount. We also demonstrate that the observed microphysical and macrophysical changes cannot be explained by synoptic meteorology or the orographic effect of the Hawaiian Islands. The "total shortwave aerosol forcing", resulting from direct and indirect forcings including both cloud albedo and cloud amount, is almost an order of magnitude higher than aerosol direct forcing alone. The precipitation reduction associated with enhanced aerosol leads to large changes in the energetics of air-sea exchange. Our results represent the first observational evidence of large-scale increase of cloud amount due to aerosols in a trade cumulus regime, which can be used to constrain the representation of aerosol-cloud interactions in climate models. The findings also have implications for volcano-climate interactions and climate mitigation research.

  8. The role of ensemble post-processing for modeling the ensemble tail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van De Vyver, Hans; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

    2016-04-01

    The past decades the numerical weather prediction community has witnessed a paradigm shift from deterministic to probabilistic forecast and state estimation (Buizza and Leutbecher, 2015; Buizza et al., 2008), in an attempt to quantify the uncertainties associated with initial-condition and model errors. An important benefit of a probabilistic framework is the improved prediction of extreme events. However, one may ask to what extent such model estimates contain information on the occurrence probability of extreme events and how this information can be optimally extracted. Different approaches have been proposed and applied on real-world systems which, based on extreme value theory, allow the estimation of extreme-event probabilities conditional on forecasts and state estimates (Ferro, 2007; Friederichs, 2010). Using ensemble predictions generated with a model of low dimensionality, a thorough investigation is presented quantifying the change of predictability of extreme events associated with ensemble post-processing and other influencing factors including the finite ensemble size, lead time and model assumption and the use of different covariates (ensemble mean, maximum, spread...) for modeling the tail distribution. Tail modeling is performed by deriving extreme-quantile estimates using peak-over-threshold representation (generalized Pareto distribution) or quantile regression. Common ensemble post-processing methods aim to improve mostly the ensemble mean and spread of a raw forecast (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2015). Conditional tail modeling, on the other hand, is a post-processing in itself, focusing on the tails only. Therefore, it is unclear how applying ensemble post-processing prior to conditional tail modeling impacts the skill of extreme-event predictions. This work is investigating this question in details. Buizza, Leutbecher, and Isaksen, 2008: Potential use of an ensemble of analyses in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, Q. J. R. Meteorol

  9. Numerical rainfall simulation with different spatial and temporal evenness by using a WRF multiphysics ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Jiyang; Liu, Jia; Yan, Denghua; Li, Chuanzhe; Yu, Fuliang

    2017-04-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used in this study to simulate six storm events in two semi-humid catchments of northern China. The six storm events are classified into four types based on the rainfall evenness in the spatial and temporal dimensions. Two microphysics, two planetary boundary layers (PBL) and three cumulus parameterizations are combined to develop an ensemble containing 16 members for rainfall generation. The WRF model performs the best for type 1 events with relatively even distributions of rainfall in both space and time. The average relative error (ARE) for the cumulative rainfall amount is 15.82 %. For the spatial rainfall simulation, the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) is found with event II (0.4007), which has the most even spatial distribution, and for the temporal simulation the lowest RMSE is found with event I (1.0218), which has the most even temporal distribution. The most difficult to reproduce are found to be the very convective storms with uneven spatiotemporal distributions (type 4 event), and the average relative error for the cumulative rainfall amounts is up to 66.37 %. The RMSE results of event III, with the most uneven spatial and temporal distribution, are 0.9688 for the spatial simulation and 2.5327 for the temporal simulation, which are much higher than the other storms. The general performance of the current WRF physical parameterizations is discussed. The Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) scheme is found to be unsuitable for rainfall simulation in the study sites. For type 1, 2 and 4 storms, member 4 performs the best. For type 3 storms, members 5 and 7 are the better choice. More guidance is provided for choosing among the physical parameterizations for accurate rainfall simulations of different storm types in the study area.

  10. Demonstrating the value of larger ensembles in forecasting physical systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reason L. Machete

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble simulation propagates a collection of initial states forward in time in a Monte Carlo fashion. Depending on the fidelity of the model and the properties of the initial ensemble, the goal of ensemble simulation can range from merely quantifying variations in the sensitivity of the model all the way to providing actionable probability forecasts of the future. Whatever the goal is, success depends on the properties of the ensemble, and there is a longstanding discussion in meteorology as to the size of initial condition ensemble most appropriate for Numerical Weather Prediction. In terms of resource allocation: how is one to divide finite computing resources between model complexity, ensemble size, data assimilation and other components of the forecast system. One wishes to avoid undersampling information available from the model's dynamics, yet one also wishes to use the highest fidelity model available. Arguably, a higher fidelity model can better exploit a larger ensemble; nevertheless it is often suggested that a relatively small ensemble, say ~16 members, is sufficient and that larger ensembles are not an effective investment of resources. This claim is shown to be dubious when the goal is probabilistic forecasting, even in settings where the forecast model is informative but imperfect. Probability forecasts for a ‘simple’ physical system are evaluated at different lead times; ensembles of up to 256 members are considered. The pure density estimation context (where ensemble members are drawn from the same underlying distribution as the target differs from the forecasting context, where one is given a high fidelity (but imperfect model. In the forecasting context, the information provided by additional members depends also on the fidelity of the model, the ensemble formation scheme (data assimilation, the ensemble interpretation and the nature of the observational noise. The effect of increasing the ensemble size is quantified by

  11. Evaluating the impacts of cumulus, land surface and ocean surface schemes on summertime rainfall simulations over East-to-southeast Asia and the western north Pacific by RegCM4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yu-Bin; Tam, Chi-Yung; Huang, Wan-Ru; Cheung, Kevin K. W.; Gao, Zhiqiu

    2016-04-01

    This study evaluates the sensitivity of summertime rainfall simulations over East-to-southeast Asia and the western north Pacific in the regional climate model version 4 (RegCM4) to cumulus (including Grell with Arakawa-Schubert type closure, Grell with Fritsch-Chappell type closure, and Emanuel), land surface (Biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme or BATS, and the community land model or CLM) and ocean surface (referred to as Zeng1, Zeng2 and BATS1e in the model) schemes by running the model with different combinations of these parameterization packages. For each of these experiments, ensemble integration of the model was carried out in the extended boreal summer of May-October from 1998 to 2007. The simulated spatial distribution, intensity and inter-annual variation of the precipitation, latent heat flux, position of the subtropical high and tropical cyclone genesis patterns from these numerical experiments were analyzed. Examinations show that the combination of Emanuel, CLM and Zeng2 (E-C-Z2) yields the best overall results, consistent with the fact that physical mechanisms considered in E-C-Z2 tend to be more comprehensive in comparison with the others. Additionally, the rainfall quantity is found very sensitive to sea surface roughness length, and the reduction of the roughness length constant (from 2 × 10-4 to 5 × 10-5 m) in our modified BATS1e mitigates the drastic overestimation of latent heat flux and rainfall, and is therefore preferable to the default value for simulations in the western north Pacific region in RegCM4.

  12. Ensemble Forecasting of Major Solar Flares

    CERN Document Server

    Guerra, J A; Uritsky, V M

    2015-01-01

    We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). Using the probabilistic forecasts from three models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (NASA-GSFC) and the NOAA forecasts, we developed an ensemble forecast by linearly combining the flaring probabilities from all four methods. Performance-based combination weights were calculated using a Monte Carlo-type algorithm by applying a decision threshold $P_{th}$ to the combined probabilities and maximizing the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). Using the probabilities and events time series from 13 recent solar active regions (2012 - 2014), we found that a linear combination of probabilities can improve both probabilistic and categorical forecasts. Combination weights vary with the applied threshold and none of the tested individual forecasting models seem to provide more accurate predictions than the others for all values of $P_{th}$. According to the maximum values of HSS, a performance-based weights ...

  13. Quantum data compression of a qubit ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozema, Lee A; Mahler, Dylan H; Hayat, Alex; Turner, Peter S; Steinberg, Aephraim M

    2014-10-17

    Data compression is a ubiquitous aspect of modern information technology, and the advent of quantum information raises the question of what types of compression are feasible for quantum data, where it is especially relevant given the extreme difficulty involved in creating reliable quantum memories. We present a protocol in which an ensemble of quantum bits (qubits) can in principle be perfectly compressed into exponentially fewer qubits. We then experimentally implement our algorithm, compressing three photonic qubits into two. This protocol sheds light on the subtle differences between quantum and classical information. Furthermore, since data compression stores all of the available information about the quantum state in fewer physical qubits, it could allow for a vast reduction in the amount of quantum memory required to store a quantum ensemble, making even today's limited quantum memories far more powerful than previously recognized.

  14. Rotationally invariant ensembles of integrable matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuzbashyan, Emil A; Shastry, B Sriram; Scaramazza, Jasen A

    2016-05-01

    We construct ensembles of random integrable matrices with any prescribed number of nontrivial integrals and formulate integrable matrix theory (IMT)-a counterpart of random matrix theory (RMT) for quantum integrable models. A type-M family of integrable matrices consists of exactly N-M independent commuting N×N matrices linear in a real parameter. We first develop a rotationally invariant parametrization of such matrices, previously only constructed in a preferred basis. For example, an arbitrary choice of a vector and two commuting Hermitian matrices defines a type-1 family and vice versa. Higher types similarly involve a random vector and two matrices. The basis-independent formulation allows us to derive the joint probability density for integrable matrices, similar to the construction of Gaussian ensembles in the RMT.

  15. Face Recognition using Optimal Representation Ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Hanxi; Gao, Yongsheng

    2011-01-01

    Recently, the face recognizers based on linear representations have been shown to deliver state-of-the-art performance. In real-world applications, however, face images usually suffer from expressions, disguises and random occlusions. The problematic facial parts undermine the validity of the linear-subspace assumption and thus the recognition performance deteriorates significantly. In this work, we address the problem in a learning-inference-mixed fashion. By observing that the linear-subspace assumption is more reliable on certain face patches rather than on the holistic face, some Bayesian Patch Representations (BPRs) are randomly generated and interpreted according to the Bayes' theory. We then train an ensemble model over the patch-representations by minimizing the empirical risk w.r.t the "leave-one-out margins". The obtained model is termed Optimal Representation Ensemble (ORE), since it guarantees the optimality from the perspective of Empirical Risk Minimization. To handle the unknown patterns in tes...

  16. Statistical ensembles for money and debt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viaggiu, Stefano; Lionetto, Andrea; Bargigli, Leonardo; Longo, Michele

    2012-10-01

    We build a statistical ensemble representation of two economic models describing respectively, in simplified terms, a payment system and a credit market. To this purpose we adopt the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution where the role of the Hamiltonian is taken by the total money supply (i.e. including money created from debt) of a set of interacting economic agents. As a result, we can read the main thermodynamic quantities in terms of monetary ones. In particular, we define for the credit market model a work term which is related to the impact of monetary policy on credit creation. Furthermore, with our formalism we recover and extend some results concerning the temperature of an economic system, previously presented in the literature by considering only the monetary base as a conserved quantity. Finally, we study the statistical ensemble for the Pareto distribution.

  17. Staying thermal with Hartree ensemble approximations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salle, Mischa E-mail: msalle@science.uva.nl; Smit, Jan E-mail: jsmit@science.uva.nl; Vink, Jeroen C. E-mail: jcvink@science.uva.nl

    2002-03-25

    We study thermal behavior of a recently introduced Hartree ensemble approximation, which allows for non-perturbative inhomogeneous field configurations as well as for approximate thermalization, in the phi (cursive,open) Greek{sup 4} model in 1+1 dimensions. Using ensembles with a free field thermal distribution as out-of-equilibrium initial conditions we determine thermalization time scales. The time scale for which the system stays in approximate quantum thermal equilibrium is an indication of the time scales for which the approximation method stays reasonable. This time scale turns out to be two orders of magnitude larger than the time scale for thermalization, in the range of couplings and temperatures studied. We also discuss simplifications of our method which are numerically more efficient and make a comparison with classical dynamics.

  18. Entanglement in a Solid State Spin Ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Simmons, Stephanie; Riemann, Helge; Abrosimov, Nikolai V; Becker, Peter; Pohl, Hans-Joachim; Thewalt, Mike L W; Itoh, Kohei M; Morton, John J L

    2010-01-01

    Entanglement is the quintessential quantum phenomenon and a necessary ingredient in most emerging quantum technologies, including quantum repeaters, quantum information processing (QIP) and the strongest forms of quantum cryptography. Spin ensembles, such as those in liquid state nuclear magnetic resonance, have been powerful in the development of quantum control methods, however, these demonstrations contained no entanglement and ultimately constitute classical simulations of quantum algorithms. Here we report the on-demand generation of entanglement between an ensemble of electron and nuclear spins in isotopically engineered phosphorus-doped silicon. We combined high field/low temperature electron spin resonance (3.4 T, 2.9 K) with hyperpolarisation of the 31P nuclear spin to obtain an initial state of sufficient purity to create a non-classical, inseparable state. The state was verified using density matrix tomography based on geometric phase gates, and had a fidelity of 98% compared with the ideal state a...

  19. Dysonian dynamics of the Ginibre ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burda, Zdzislaw; Grela, Jacek; Nowak, Maciej A; Tarnowski, Wojciech; Warchoł, Piotr

    2014-09-05

    We study the time evolution of Ginibre matrices whose elements undergo Brownian motion. The non-Hermitian character of the Ginibre ensemble binds the dynamics of eigenvalues to the evolution of eigenvectors in a nontrivial way, leading to a system of coupled nonlinear equations resembling those for turbulent systems. We formulate a mathematical framework allowing simultaneous description of the flow of eigenvalues and eigenvectors, and we unravel a hidden dynamics as a function of a new complex variable, which in the standard description is treated as a regulator only. We solve the evolution equations for large matrices and demonstrate that the nonanalytic behavior of the Green's functions is associated with a shock wave stemming from a Burgers-like equation describing correlations of eigenvectors. We conjecture that the hidden dynamics that we observe for the Ginibre ensemble is a general feature of non-Hermitian random matrix models and is relevant to related physical applications.

  20. Rotationally invariant ensembles of integrable matrices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuzbashyan, Emil A.; Shastry, B. Sriram; Scaramazza, Jasen A.

    2016-05-01

    We construct ensembles of random integrable matrices with any prescribed number of nontrivial integrals and formulate integrable matrix theory (IMT)—a counterpart of random matrix theory (RMT) for quantum integrable models. A type-M family of integrable matrices consists of exactly N -M independent commuting N ×N matrices linear in a real parameter. We first develop a rotationally invariant parametrization of such matrices, previously only constructed in a preferred basis. For example, an arbitrary choice of a vector and two commuting Hermitian matrices defines a type-1 family and vice versa. Higher types similarly involve a random vector and two matrices. The basis-independent formulation allows us to derive the joint probability density for integrable matrices, similar to the construction of Gaussian ensembles in the RMT.

  1. Eigenstate Gibbs Ensemble in Integrable Quantum Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Nandy, Sourav; Das, Arnab; Dhar, Abhishek

    2016-01-01

    The Eigenstate Thermalization Hypothesis implies that for a thermodynamically large system in one of its eigenstates, the reduced density matrix describing any finite subsystem is determined solely by a set of {\\it relevant} conserved quantities. In a generic system, only the energy plays that role and hence eigenstates appear locally thermal. Integrable systems, on the other hand, possess an extensive number of such conserved quantities and hence the reduced density matrix requires specification of an infinite number of parameters (Generalized Gibbs Ensemble). However, here we show by unbiased statistical sampling of the individual eigenstates with a given finite energy density, that the local description of an overwhelming majority of these states of even such an integrable system is actually Gibbs-like, i.e. requires only the energy density of the eigenstate. Rare eigenstates that cannot be represented by the Gibbs ensemble can also be sampled efficiently by our method and their local properties are then s...

  2. ABCD of Beta Ensembles and Topological Strings

    CERN Document Server

    Krefl, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    We study beta-ensembles with Bn, Cn, and Dn eigenvalue measure and their relation with refined topological strings. Our results generalize the familiar connections between local topological strings and matrix models leading to An measure, and illustrate that all those classical eigenvalue ensembles, and their topological string counterparts, are related one to another via various deformations and specializations, quantum shifts and discrete quotients. We review the solution of the Gaussian models via Macdonald identities, and interpret them as conifold theories. The interpolation between the various models is plainly apparent in this case. For general polynomial potential, we calculate the partition function in the multi-cut phase in a perturbative fashion, beyond tree-level in the large-N limit. The relation to refined topological string orientifolds on the corresponding local geometry is discussed along the way.

  3. Support Vector Machine Ensemble Based on Genetic Algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Ye; YIN Ru-po; CAI Yun-ze; XU Xiao-ming

    2006-01-01

    Support vector machines (SVMs) have been introduced as effective methods for solving classification problems.However, due to some limitations in practical applications,their generalization performance is sometimes far from the expected level. Therefore, it is meaningful to study SVM ensemble learning. In this paper, a novel genetic algorithm based ensemble learning method, namely Direct Genetic Ensemble (DGE), is proposed. DGE adopts the predictive accuracy of ensemble as the fitness function and searches a good ensemble from the ensemble space. In essence, DGE is also a selective ensemble learning method because the base classifiers of the ensemble are selected according to the solution of genetic algorithm. In comparison with other ensemble learning methods, DGE works on a higher level and is more direct. Different strategies of constructing diverse base classifiers can be utilized in DGE.Experimental results show that SVM ensembles constructed by DGE can achieve better performance than single SVMs,bagged and boosted SVM ensembles. In addition, some valuable conclusions are obtained.

  4. Various multistage ensembles for prediction of heating energy consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radisa Jovanovic

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Feedforward neural network models are created for prediction of daily heating energy consumption of a NTNU university campus Gloshaugen using actual measured data for training and testing. Improvement of prediction accuracy is proposed by using neural network ensemble. Previously trained feed-forward neural networks are first separated into clusters, using k-means algorithm, and then the best network of each cluster is chosen as member of an ensemble. Two conventional averaging methods for obtaining ensemble output are applied; simple and weighted. In order to achieve better prediction results, multistage ensemble is investigated. As second level, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with various clustering and membership functions are used to aggregate the selected ensemble members. Feedforward neural network in second stage is also analyzed. It is shown that using ensemble of neural networks can predict heating energy consumption with better accuracy than the best trained single neural network, while the best results are achieved with multistage ensemble.

  5. Spatially Coupled Ensembles Universally Achieve Capacity under Belief Propagation

    CERN Document Server

    Kudekar, Shrinivas; Urbanke, Ruediger

    2012-01-01

    We investigate spatially coupled code ensembles. For transmission over the binary erasure channel, it was recently shown that spatial coupling increases the belief propagation threshold of the ensemble to essentially the maximum a-priori threshold of the underlying component ensemble. This explains why convolutional LDPC ensembles, originally introduced by Felstrom and Zigangirov, perform so well over this channel. We show that the equivalent result holds true for transmission over general binary-input memoryless output-symmetric channels. More precisely, given a desired error probability and a gap to capacity, we can construct a spatially coupled ensemble which fulfills these constraints universally on this class of channels under belief propagation decoding. In fact, most codes in that ensemble have that property. The quantifier universal refers to the single ensemble/code which is good for all channels but we assume that the channel is known at the receiver. The key technical result is a proof that under b...

  6. Analysis and optimization of weighted ensemble sampling

    CERN Document Server

    Aristoff, David

    2016-01-01

    We give a mathematical framework for weighted ensemble (WE) sampling, a binning and resampling technique for efficiently computing probabilities in molecular dynamics. We prove that WE sampling is unbiased in a very general setting that includes adaptive binning. We show that when WE is used for stationary calculations in tandem with a Markov state model (MSM), the MSM can be used to optimize the allocation of replicas in the bins.

  7. Quantum Data Compression of a Qubit Ensemble

    OpenAIRE

    Rozema, Lee A.; Mahler, Dylan H.; Hayat, Alex; Turner, Peter S.; Steinberg, Aephraim M.

    2014-01-01

    Data compression is a ubiquitous aspect of modern information technology, and the advent of quantum information raises the question of what types of compression are feasible for quantum data, where it is especially relevant given the extreme difficulty involved in creating reliable quantum memories. We present a protocol in which an ensemble of quantum bits (qubits) can in principle be perfectly compressed into exponentially fewer qubits. We then experimentally implement our algorithm, compre...

  8. Multiscale ensemble filtering for reservoir engineering applications

    OpenAIRE

    Lawniczak, W.; Hanea, R.G.; Heemink, A.; Mclaughlin, D.

    2009-01-01

    Reservoir management requires periodic updates of the simulation models using the production data available over time. Traditionally, validation of reservoir models with production data is done using a history matching process. Uncertainties in the data, as well as in the model, lead to a nonunique history matching inverse problem. It has been shown that the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an adequate method for predicting the dynamics of the reservoir. The EnKF is a sequential Monte-Carlo a...

  9. Statistical Ensemble Theory of Gompertz Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takuya Yamano

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available An ensemble formulation for the Gompertz growth function within the framework of statistical mechanics is presented, where the two growth parameters are assumed to be statistically distributed. The growth can be viewed as a self-referential process, which enables us to use the Bose-Einstein statistics picture. The analytical entropy expression pertain to the law can be obtained in terms of the growth velocity distribution as well as the Gompertz function itself for the whole process.

  10. Staying Thermal with Hartree Ensemble Approximations

    CERN Document Server

    Salle, M; Vink, Jeroen C

    2000-01-01

    Using Hartree ensemble approximations to compute the real time dynamics of scalar fields in 1+1 dimension, we find that with suitable initial conditions, approximate thermalization is achieved much faster than found in our previous work. At large times, depending on the interaction strength and temperature, the particle distribution slowly changes: the Bose-Einstein distribution of the particle densities develops classical features. We also discuss variations of our method which are numerically more efficient.

  11. Interplanetary magnetic field ensemble at 1 AU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthaeus, W.H.; Goldstein, M.L.; King, J.H.

    1985-04-01

    A method for calculation ensemble averages from magnetic field data is described. A data set comprising approximately 16 months of nearly continuous ISEE-3 magnetic field data is used in this study. Individual subintervals of this data, ranging from 15 hours to 15.6 days comprise the ensemble. The sole condition for including each subinterval in the averages is the degree to which it represents a weakly time-stationary process. Averages obtained by this method are appropriate for a turbulence description of the interplanetary medium. The ensemble average correlation length obtained from all subintervals is found to be 4.9 x 10 to the 11th cm. The average value of the variances of the magnetic field components are in the approximate ratio 8:9:10, where the third component is the local mean field direction. The correlation lengths and variances are found to have a systematic variation with subinterval duration, reflecting the important role of low-frequency fluctuations in the interplanetary medium.

  12. Gradient Flow Analysis on MILC HISQ Ensembles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Nathan [Washington U., St. Louis; Bazavov, Alexei [Brookhaven; Bernard, Claude [Washington U., St. Louis; DeTar, Carleton [Utah U.; Foley, Justin [Utah U.; Gottlieb, Steven [Indiana U.; Heller, Urs M. [APS, New York; Hetrick, J. E. [U. Pacific, Stockton; Komijani, Javad [Washington U., St. Louis; Laiho, Jack [Syracuse U.; Levkova, Ludmila [Utah U.; Oktay, M. B. [Utah U.; Sugar, Robert [UC, Santa Barbara; Toussaint, Doug [Arizona U.; Van de Water, Ruth S. [Fermilab; Zhou, Ran [Fermilab

    2014-11-14

    We report on a preliminary scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f = 2 + 1 + 1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The ensembles include four lattice spacings, ranging from 0.15 to 0.06 fm, and both physical and unphysical values of the quark masses. The scales $\\sqrt{t_0}/a$ and $w_0/a$ are computed using Symanzik flow and the cloverleaf definition of $\\langle E \\rangle$ on each ensemble. Then both scales and the meson masses $aM_\\pi$ and $aM_K$ are adjusted for mistunings in the charm mass. Using a combination of continuum chiral perturbation theory and a Taylor series ansatz in the lattice spacing, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. Our preliminary results are $\\sqrt{t_0} = 0.1422(7)$fm and $w_0 = 0.1732(10)$fm. We also find the continuum mass-dependence of $w_0$.

  13. Cavity Cooling for Ensemble Spin Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cory, David

    2015-03-01

    Recently there has been a surge of interest in exploring thermodynamics in quantum systems where dissipative effects can be exploited to perform useful work. One such example is quantum state engineering where a quantum state of high purity may be prepared by dissipative coupling through a cold thermal bath. This has been used to great effect in many quantum systems where cavity cooling has been used to cool mechanical modes to their quantum ground state through coupling to the resolved sidebands of a high-Q resonator. In this talk we explore how these techniques may be applied to an ensemble spin system. This is an attractive process as it potentially allows for parallel remove of entropy from a large number of quantum systems, enabling an ensemble to achieve a polarization greater than thermal equilibrium, and potentially on a time scale much shorter than thermal relaxation processes. This is achieved by the coupled angular momentum subspaces of the ensemble behaving as larger effective spins, overcoming the weak individual coupling of individual spins to a microwave resonator. Cavity cooling is shown to cool each of these subspaces to their respective ground state, however an additional algorithmic step or dissipative process is required to couple between these subspaces and enable cooling to the full ground state of the joint system.

  14. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Roh, S.

    2015-05-08

    In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (entry-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

  15. Gradient Flow Analysis on MILC HISQ Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Bazavov, A; Brown, N; DeTar, C; Foley, J; Gottlieb, Steven; Heller, U M; Hetrick, J E; Komijani, J; Laiho, J; Levkova, L; Oktay, M; Sugar, R L; Toussaint, D; Van de Water, R S; Zhou, R

    2014-01-01

    We report on a preliminary scale determination with gradient-flow techniques on the $N_f = 2 + 1 + 1$ HISQ ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration. The ensembles include four lattice spacings, ranging from 0.15 to 0.06 fm, and both physical and unphysical values of the quark masses. The scales $\\sqrt{t_0}/a$ and $w_0/a$ are computed using Symanzik flow and the cloverleaf definition of $\\langle E \\rangle$ on each ensemble. Then both scales and the meson masses $aM_\\pi$ and $aM_K$ are adjusted for mistunings in the charm mass. Using a combination of continuum chiral perturbation theory and a Taylor series ansatz in the lattice spacing, the results are simultaneously extrapolated to the continuum and interpolated to physical quark masses. Our preliminary results are $\\sqrt{t_0} = 0.1422(7)$fm and $w_0 = 0.1732(10)$fm. We also find the continuum mass-dependence of $w_0$.

  16. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Roh, S.

    2015-12-03

    In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables that exist at the same locations has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

  17. Ensemble transform sensitivity method for adaptive observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu; Xie, Yuanfu; Wang, Hongli; Chen, Dehui; Toth, Zoltan

    2016-01-01

    The Ensemble Transform (ET) method has been shown to be useful in providing guidance for adaptive observation deployment. It predicts forecast error variance reduction for each possible deployment using its corresponding transformation matrix in an ensemble subspace. In this paper, a new ET-based sensitivity (ETS) method, which calculates the gradient of forecast error variance reduction in terms of analysis error variance reduction, is proposed to specify regions for possible adaptive observations. ETS is a first order approximation of the ET; it requires just one calculation of a transformation matrix, increasing computational efficiency (60%-80% reduction in computational cost). An explicit mathematical formulation of the ETS gradient is derived and described. Both the ET and ETS methods are applied to the Hurricane Irene (2011) case and a heavy rainfall case for comparison. The numerical results imply that the sensitive areas estimated by the ETS and ET are similar. However, ETS is much more efficient, particularly when the resolution is higher and the number of ensemble members is larger.

  18. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Roh

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF, the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (entry-wise product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

  19. On large deviations for ensembles of distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khrychev, D A [Moscow State Institute of Radio-Engineering, Electronics and Automation (Technical University), Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2013-11-30

    The paper is concerned with the large deviations problem in the Freidlin-Wentzell formulation without the assumption of the uniqueness of the solution to the equation involving white noise. In other words, it is assumed that for each ε>0 the nonempty set P{sub ε} of weak solutions is not necessarily a singleton. Analogues of a number of concepts in the theory of large deviations are introduced for the set (P{sub ε}, ε>0), hereafter referred to as an ensemble of distributions. The ensembles of weak solutions of an n-dimensional stochastic Navier-Stokes system and stochastic wave equation with power-law nonlinearity are shown to be uniformly exponentially tight. An idempotent Wiener process in a Hilbert space and idempotent partial differential equations are defined. The accumulation points in the sense of large deviations of the ensembles in question are shown to be weak solutions of the corresponding idempotent equations. Bibliography: 14 titles.

  20. Multivariate localization methods for ensemble Kalman filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roh, S.; Jun, M.; Szunyogh, I.; Genton, M. G.

    2015-12-01

    In ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF), the small number of ensemble members that is feasible to use in a practical data assimilation application leads to sampling variability of the estimates of the background error covariances. The standard approach to reducing the effects of this sampling variability, which has also been found to be highly efficient in improving the performance of EnKF, is the localization of the estimates of the covariances. One family of localization techniques is based on taking the Schur (element-wise) product of the ensemble-based sample covariance matrix and a correlation matrix whose entries are obtained by the discretization of a distance-dependent correlation function. While the proper definition of the localization function for a single state variable has been extensively investigated, a rigorous definition of the localization function for multiple state variables that exist at the same locations has been seldom considered. This paper introduces two strategies for the construction of localization functions for multiple state variables. The proposed localization functions are tested by assimilating simulated observations experiments into the bivariate Lorenz 95 model with their help.

  1. Dynamic Analogue Initialization for Ensemble Forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Shan; RONG Xingyao; LIU Yun; LIU Zhengyu; Klaus FRAEDRICH

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach for the initialization of ensemble numerical forecasting:Dynamic Analogue Initialization (DAI).DAI assumes that the best model state trajectories for the past provide the initial conditions for the best forecasts in the future.As such,DAI performs the ensemble forecast using the best analogues from a full size ensemble.As a pilot study,the Lorenz63 and Lorenz96 models were used to test DAI's effectiveness independently.Results showed that DAI can improve the forecast significantly.Especially in lower-dimensional systems,DAI can reduce the forecast RMSE by ~50% compared to the Monte Carlo forecast (MC).This improvement is because DAI is able to recognize the direction of the analysis error through the embedding process and therefore selects those good trajectories with reduced initial error.Meanwhile,a potential improvement of DAI is also proposed,and that is to find the optimal range of embedding time based on the error's growing speed.

  2. Improving High-resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with Upgraded Kain-Fritsch Cumulus Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    High-resolution weather forecasting is affected by many aspects, i.e. model initial conditions, subgrid-scale cumulus convection and cloud microphysics schemes. Recent 12km grid studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have identified the importance of inco...

  3. RACORO Continental Boundary Layer Cloud Investigations: 3. Separation of Parameterization Biases in Single-Column Model CAM5 Simulations of Shallow Cumulus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Wuyin; Liu, Yangang; Vogelmann, Andrew M.; Fridlind, Ann; Endo, Satoshi; Song, Hua; Feng, Sha; Toto, Tami; Li, Zhijin; Zhang, Minghua

    2015-01-01

    Climatically important low-level clouds are commonly misrepresented in climate models. The FAst-physics System TEstbed and Research (FASTER) Project has constructed case studies from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility's Southern Great Plain site during the RACORO aircraft campaign to facilitate research on model representation of boundary-layer clouds. This paper focuses on using the single-column Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SCAM5) simulations of a multi-day continental shallow cumulus case to identify specific parameterization causes of low-cloud biases. Consistent model biases among the simulations driven by a set of alternative forcings suggest that uncertainty in the forcing plays only a relatively minor role. In-depth analysis reveals that the model's shallow cumulus convection scheme tends to significantly under-produce clouds during the times when shallow cumuli exist in the observations, while the deep convective and stratiform cloud schemes significantly over-produce low-level clouds throughout the day. The links between model biases and the underlying assumptions of the shallow cumulus scheme are further diagnosed with the aid of large-eddy simulations and aircraft measurements, and by suppressing the triggering of the deep convection scheme. It is found that the weak boundary layer turbulence simulated is directly responsible for the weak cumulus activity and the simulated boundary layer stratiform clouds. Increased vertical and temporal resolutions are shown to lead to stronger boundary layer turbulence and reduction of low-cloud biases.

  4. In vitro production of bovine embryos: cumulus/granulosa cell gene expression patterns point to early atresia as beneficial for oocyte competence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mazzoni, Gianluca; Razza, Eduardo; Pedersen, Hanne S.

    2017-01-01

    In vitro production (IW) of bovine embryos has become widespread technology implemented in cattle breeding and production. Here, we review novel data on cumulus/granulosa cell gene expression, as determined by RNAseq on cellular material from pooled follicular fluids at the single animal level...

  5. Influence of co-culture with denuded oocytes during in vitro maturation on fertilization and developmental competence of cumulus-enclosed porcine oocytes in a defined system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appeltant, Ruth; Somfai, Tamás; Kikuchi, Kazuhiro; Maes, Dominiek; Van Soom, Ann

    2016-04-01

    Co-culture of cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs) with denuded oocytes (DOs) during in vitro maturation (IVM) was reported to improve the developmental competence of oocytes via oocyte-secreted factors in cattle. The aim of the present study was to investigate if addition of DOs during IVM can improve in vitro fertilization (IVF) and in vitro culture (IVC) results for oocytes in a defined in vitro production system in pigs. The maturation medium was porcine oocyte medium supplemented with gonadotropins, dbcAMP and β-mercaptoethanol. Cumulus-oocyte complexes were matured without DOs or with DOs in different ratios (9 COC, 9 COC+16 DO and 9 COC+36 DO). Consequently; oocytes were subjected to IVF as intact COCs or after denudation to examine if DO addition during IVM would affect cumulus or oocyte properties. After fertilization, penetration and normal fertilization rates of zygotes were not different between all tested groups irrespective of denudation before IVF. When zygotes were cultured for 6 days, no difference could be observed between all treatment groups in cleavage rate, blastocyst rate and cell number per blastocyst. In conclusion, irrespective of the ratio, co-culture with DOs during IVM did not improve fertilization parameters and embryo development of cumulus-enclosed porcine oocytes in a defined system.

  6. Relationship between the peripheral concentrations of estradiol-17β (E2) and preovulatory characteristics of cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs) during superovulation treatment in Japanese Black cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitahara, Go; Kamimura, Shunichi; Hamana, Katsumi

    2011-02-01

    The relationship between the peripheral concentrations of estradiol-17β (E(2)) and the preovulatory characteristics of cumulus oocyte complexes (COCs) during superovulation treatment was investigated in Japanese Black cows. A superovulation regimen with FSH treatment in a descending manner was commenced on day 7 (n=3) or day 10 (n=2) of the estrous cycle (day 0=estrus). Peripheral blood was collected to measure E(2) concentrations twice a day throughout the treatment. Ovariectomies were performed at 100 h after the initial FSH treatment in five cows. Every follicle more than 8 mm in diameter was isolated from the ovaries, and cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs) were gently aspirated. The COCs were then separated into three groups based on the characteristics of the cumulus (compact, expanded and denuded) and subgrouped based on the stage of the nucleus in the oocytes (GV, GVBD). Plasma E(2) concentrations tended to increase gradually and reached the peak level at around 84 h (E(2)-84: n=3) or 96 h (E(2)-96: n=2) after the initial FSH treatment. The ratio of COCs with expanded cumulus was significantly higher in E(2)-84 than in E(2)-96 (Psuperovulation treatment in Japanese Black cows.

  7. EnsembleGraph: Interactive Visual Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Behavior for Ensemble Simulation Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shu, Qingya; Guo, Hanqi; Che, Limei; Yuan, Xiaoru; Liu, Junfeng; Liang, Jie

    2016-04-19

    We present a novel visualization framework—EnsembleGraph— for analyzing ensemble simulation data, in order to help scientists understand behavior similarities between ensemble members over space and time. A graph-based representation is used to visualize individual spatiotemporal regions with similar behaviors, which are extracted by hierarchical clustering algorithms. A user interface with multiple-linked views is provided, which enables users to explore, locate, and compare regions that have similar behaviors between and then users can investigate and analyze the selected regions in detail. The driving application of this paper is the studies on regional emission influences over tropospheric ozone, which is based on ensemble simulations conducted with different anthropogenic emission absences using the MOZART-4 (model of ozone and related tracers, version 4) model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by visualizing the MOZART-4 ensemble simulation data and evaluating the relative regional emission influences on tropospheric ozone concentrations. Positive feedbacks from domain experts and two case studies prove efficiency of our method.

  8. Ice formation and development in aged, wintertime cumulus over the UK: observations and modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Crawford

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In situ high resolution aircraft measurements of cloud microphysical properties were made in coordination with ground based remote sensing observations of a line of small cumulus clouds, using Radar and Lidar, as part of the Aerosol Properties, PRocesses And InfluenceS on the Earth's climate (APPRAISE project. A narrow but extensive line (~100 km long of shallow convective clouds over the southern UK was studied. Cloud top temperatures were observed to be higher than −8 °C, but the clouds were seen to consist of supercooled droplets and varying concentrations of ice particles. No ice particles were observed to be falling into the cloud tops from above. Current parameterisations of ice nuclei (IN numbers predict too few particles will be active as ice nuclei to account for ice particle concentrations at the observed, near cloud top, temperatures (−7.5 °C.

    The role of mineral dust particles, consistent with concentrations observed near the surface, acting as high temperature IN is considered important in this case. It was found that very high concentrations of ice particles (up to 100 L−1 could be produced by secondary ice particle production providing the observed small amount of primary ice (about 0.01 L−1 was present to initiate it. This emphasises the need to understand primary ice formation in slightly supercooled clouds. It is shown using simple calculations that the Hallett-Mossop process (HM is the likely source of the secondary ice.

    Model simulations of the case study were performed with the Aerosol Cloud and Precipitation Interactions Model (ACPIM. These parcel model investigations confirmed the HM process to be a very important mechanism for producing the observed high ice concentrations. A key step in generating the high concentrations was the process of collision and coalescence of rain drops, which once formed fell rapidly through the cloud, collecting ice particles which caused them

  9. Recombinant fetuin-B protein maintains high fertilization rate in cumulus cell-free mouse oocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietzel, E; Floehr, J; Van de Leur, E; Weiskirchen, R; Jahnen-Dechent, W

    2017-01-01

    Does fetuin-B inhibit premature zona pellucida (ZP) hardening in mouse oocytes in vitro and thus increase IVF rate? Supplementation of oocyte in vitro maturation (IVM) media with recombinant mouse fetuin-B (rmFetuB) increased fertilization rate without affecting mouse embryo development into blastocysts. Mice deficient in fetuin-B are infertile owing to premature ZP hardening. Premature ZP hardening also occurs during oocyte IVM leading to decreased fertilization rate. We fertilized batches of 20-30 mouse metaphase II (Mll) stage oocytes from C57BL/6 mice with fresh sperm, and studied early embryo development until blastocyst hatching. Oocytes were maintained with or without rmFetuB during IVM and IVF. Exogenous rmFetuB was added to media prior to oocyte isolation. ZP hardening was quantified by chymotrypsin digestion timing and by counting attached sperm. In the absence of cumulus cells, rmFetuB dose-dependently inhibited ZP hardening and increased IVF rate (P = 0.039). Fetuin-B at ≥0.03 mg/ml also inhibited physiological, fertilization-triggered ZP hardening (indicated by increased sperm binding, P = 0.0002), without increasing embryo death. Exogenous rmFetuB increased IVF rate for up to 5 hours of IVM (P = 0.02 at 1 hour, P = 0.01 at 5 hours of IVM). Mll stage oocytes in this study were isolated from the ampullae of fetuin-B expressing mice. Thus, oocytes were protected against premature ZP hardening by endogenous fetuin-B. In humans and livestock, oocytes are usually isolated by follicle puncture before ovulation. In this situation, the deprivation of endogenous fetuin-B would occur earlier and the effect of exogenous fetuin-B in the IVF medium may be even more pronounced. Fertilization-triggered ZP hardening is essential for embryo development but in this study the effect of fetuin-B supplementation was only studied to blastocyst stage. Any influence of added fetuin-B on later embryo development after transplantation remains to be determined. The astacin

  10. Transcriptome dynamics and molecular cross-talk between bovine oocyte and its companion cumulus cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Looft C

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The bi-directional communication between the oocyte and its companion cumulus cells (CCs is crucial for development and functions of both cell types. Transcripts that are exclusively expressed either in oocytes or CCs and molecular mechanisms affected due to removal of the communication axis between the two cell types is not investigated at a larger scale. The main objectives of this study were: 1. To identify transcripts exclusively expressed either in oocyte or CCs and 2. To identify those which are differentially expressed when the oocyte is cultured with or without its companion CCs and vice versa. Results We analyzed transcriptome profile of different oocyte and CC samples using Affymetrix GeneChip Bovine Genome array containing 23000 transcripts. Out of 13162 genes detected in germinal vesicle (GV oocytes and their companion CCs, 1516 and 2727 are exclusively expressed in oocytes and CCs, respectively, while 8919 are expressed in both. Similarly, of 13602 genes detected in metaphase II (MII oocytes and CCs, 1423 and 3100 are exclusively expressed in oocytes and CCs, respectively, while 9079 are expressed in both. A total of 265 transcripts are differentially expressed between oocytes cultured with (OO + CCs and without (OO - CCs CCs, of which 217 and 48 are over expressed in the former and the later groups, respectively. Similarly, 566 transcripts are differentially expressed when CCs mature with (CCs + OO or without (CCs - OO their enclosed oocytes. Of these, 320 and 246 are over expressed in CCs + OO and CCs - OO, respectively. While oocyte specific transcripts include those involved in transcription (IRF6, POU5F1, MYF5, MED18, translation (EIF2AK1, EIF4ENIF1 and CCs specific ones include those involved in carbohydrate metabolism (HYAL1, PFKL, PYGL, MPI, protein metabolic processes (IHH, APOA1, PLOD1, steroid biosynthetic process (APOA1, CYP11A1, HSD3B1, HSD3B7. Similarly, while transcripts over expressed in OO + CCs

  11. Ultrasonographic-guided retrieval of cumulus oocyte complexes after super-stimulation in dromedary camel (Camelus dromedarius).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wani, N A; Skidmore, J A

    2010-08-01

    In Experiment 1, studies were conducted to apply the transvaginal ultrasound guided ovum pick-up (OPU) technique in dromedary camels after their ovarian super-stimulation and in vivo oocyte maturation. In Experiment 2, the developmental potential of two commonly used oocyte types, i.e., in vivo matured oocytes collected by OPU and abattoir derived in vitro-matured oocytes was compared after their chemical activation. In Experiment 3, developmental competence of oocytes collected from super-stimulated camels by OPU, matured either in vivo or in vitro, was compared after their chemical activation. Mature female dromedary camels super-stimulated with a combination of eCG and pFSH were given an injection of 20 microg of the GnRH analogue, buserelin 24, 26, or 28 h before the scheduled OPU. For collection of cumulus oocyte complexes (COCs) the transducer was guided through the vulva into the cranial most portion of the vagina and 17-gauge, 55 cm single-lumen needle was placed in the needle guide of the ultrasound probe and advanced through the vaginal fornix and into the follicle. Follicular fluid was aspirated using a regulated vacuum pump into tubes containing embryo-flushing media. Aspirates were searched for COCs using a stereomicroscope, and they were then denuded of cumulus cells by hyaluronidase and repeated pipetting. The oocytes were classified as mature (with a visible polar body), immature (with no visible polar body), activated (with divided or fragmented ooplasm) and others (degenerated and abnormal). Overall an average of 12.12 +/- 7.9 COCs were aspirated per animal with an oocyte recovery rate from the aspirated follicles of about 77%. The majority (> 90%) of the collected COCs by OPU were with loose and expanded cumulus cells. The proportion of matured oocytes obtained at 28-29 h (91.2 +/- 4.1) and 26-27 h (82.1 +/- 3.4) were higher (P dromedary camels 26-28 h after GnRH administration. The developmental response, to chemical activation, of in vivo

  12. Metabolic differences in bovine cumulus-oocyte complexes matured in vitro in the presence or absence of follicle-stimulating hormone and bone morphogenetic protein 15.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton-McDowall, Melanie L; Mottershead, David G; Gardner, David K; Gilchrist, Robert B; Thompson, Jeremy G

    2012-10-01

    Bidirectional communication between cumulus cells and the oocyte is necessary to achieve oocyte developmental competence. The aim of the present study was to examine the effects of recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein 15 (rhBMP15) and follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) supplementation on bovine cumulus-oocyte complex (COC) metabolism during maturation. Bovine COCs were matured in the presence of absence of FSH, rhBMP15, or both for 23 h. The addition of FSH and rhBMP15 increased blastocyst development (without rhBMP15 and FSH, 28.4% ± 7.4%; with FSH and rhBMP15, 51.5% ± 5.4%; P levels. rhBMP15 supplementation (regardless of FSH) significantly decreased ADP levels in COCs, leading to an increase in ATP:ADP ratios (P Indicators of mitochondrial activity and cellular REDOX, oxidized flavin adenine dinucleotide (FAD(++)) and reduced nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (phosphate) (NAD(P)H), levels within the oocyte of COCs were significantly higher with rhBMP15 alone, whereas the presence of FSH diminished the rhBMP15 effect. Regardless of treatment, no changes in REDOX state (FAD(++):NAD(P)H). The significant increase in FAD(++) and NAD(P)H in COCs with rhBMP15 was mediated via cumulus cells, because no differences were found in denuded oocytes cultured in the presence or absence of FSH, rhBMP15, or both. The present study demonstrates that a principal metabolic consequence of FSH supplementation of COCs is to alter the glycolytic rate of cumulus cells, whereas that of rhBMP15 is to regulate oxidative phosphorylation in the oocyte, even though it acts via cumulus cells. These effects are tempered when FSH and rhBMP15 are present together but, nonetheless, yield the best oocyte developmental competence.

  13. Epigenetic modification of long interspersed elements-1 in cumulus cells of mature and immature oocytes from patients with polycystic ovary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruksananonda, Kamthorn; Wasinarom, Artisa; Sereepapong, Wisan; Sirayapiwat, Porntip; Rattanatanyong, Prakasit; Mutirangura, Apiwat

    2016-06-01

    The long interspersed elements (LINE-1, L1s) are a group of genetic elements found in large numbers in the human genome that can translate into phenotype by controlling genes. Growing evidence supports the role of epigenetic in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). The purpose of this study is to evaluate the DNA methylation levels in LINE-1 in a tissue-specific manner using cumulus cells from patients with PCOS compared with normal controls. The study included 19 patients with PCOS and 22 control patients who were undergoing controlled ovarian hyperstimulation. After oocyte retrieval, cumulus cells were extracted. LINE-1 DNA methylation levels were analysed by bisulfite treatment, polymerase chain reaction, and restriction enzyme digestion. The Connection Up- and Down-Regulation Expression Analysis of Microarrays software package was used to compare the gene regulatory functions of intragenic LINE-1. The results showed higher LINE-1 DNA methylation levels in the cumulus cells of mature oocytes in PCOS patients, 79.14 (±2.66) vs. 75.40 (±4.92); p=0.004, but no difference in the methylation of cumulus cells in immature oocytes between PCOS and control patients, 70.33 (±4.79) vs. 67.79 (±5.17); p=0.155. However, LINE-1 DNA methylation levels were found to be higher in the cumulus cells of mature oocytes than in those of immature oocytes in both PCOS and control patients. These findings suggest that the epigenetic modification of LINE-1 DNA may play a role in regulating multiple gene expression that affects the pathophysiology and development of mature oocytes in PCOS.

  14. Ensemble data assimilation with an adjusted forecast spread

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Rainwater

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble data assimilation typically evolves an ensemble of model states whose spread is intended to represent the algorithm's uncertainty about the state of the physical system that produces the data. The analysis phase treats the forecast ensemble as a random sample from a background distribution, and it transforms the ensemble according to the background and observation error statistics to provide an appropriate sample for the next forecast phase. We find that in the presence of model nonlinearity and model error, it can be fruitful to rescale the ensemble spread prior to the forecast and then reverse this rescaling after the forecast. We call this approach forecast spread adjustment, which we discuss and test in this article using an ensemble Kalman filter and a 2005 model due to Lorenz. We argue that forecast spread adjustment provides a tunable parameter, that is, complementary to covariance inflation, which cumulatively increases ensemble spread to compensate for underestimation of uncertainty. We also show that as the adjustment parameter approaches zero, the filter approaches the extended Kalman filter if the ensemble size is sufficiently large. We find that varying the adjustment parameter can significantly reduce analysis and forecast errors in some cases. We evaluate how the improvement provided by forecast spread adjustment depends on ensemble size, observation error and model error. Our results indicate that the technique is most effective for small ensembles, small observation error and large model error, though the effectiveness depends significantly on the nature of the model error.

  15. De praeceptis ferendis: good practice in multi-model ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Kioutsioukis

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Ensembles of air quality models have been formally and empirically shown to outperform single models in many cases. Evidence suggests that ensemble error is reduced when the members form a diverse and accurate ensemble. Diversity and accuracy are hence two factors that should be taken care of while designing ensembles in order for them to provide better predictions. There exists a trade-off between diversity and accuracy for which one cannot be gained without expenses of the other. Theoretical aspects like the bias-variance-covariance decomposition and the accuracy-diversity decomposition are linked together and support the importance of creating ensemble that incorporates both the elements. Hence, the common practice of unconditional averaging of models without prior manipulation limits the advantages of ensemble averaging. We demonstrate the importance of ensemble accuracy and diversity through an inter-comparison of ensemble products for which a sound mathematical framework exists, and provide specific recommendations for model selection and weighting for multi model ensembles. To this end we have devised statistical tools that can be used for diagnostic evaluation of ensemble modelling products, complementing existing operational methods.

  16. Impact of Horizontal Resolution and Cumulus Parameterization Scheme on the Simulation of Heavy Rainfall Events over the Korean Peninsula

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Seung-Woo LEE; Dong-Kyou LEE; Dong-Eon CHANG

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we present the results from high-resolution numerical simulations of three heavy rainfall events over the Korean Peninsula. The numerical results show that the prediction accuracy for heavy rainfall events improved as horizontal resolution increased. The fine-grid precipitation fields were much closer to the real precipitation fields in the case of large synoptic forcing over the Korean Peninsula. In the case of large convective available potential energy and weak synoptic forcing, it seems that even when using a high resolution, the models still showed poor performance in reproducing the observed high precipitation amounts. However, activation of the cumulus parameterization scheme in the intermediate resolution of 9 km, even at a grid spacing of 3 km, had a positive impact on the simulation of the heavy rainfall event.

  17. Impact of subgrid-scale radiative heating variability on the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus transition in climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiao, Heng; Gustafson, William I.; Wang, Hailong

    2014-04-29

    Subgrid-scale interactions between turbulence and radiation are potentially important for accurately reproducing marine low clouds in climate models. To better understand the impact of these interactions, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is configured for large eddy simulation (LES) to study the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus (Sc-to-Cu) transition. Using the GEWEX Atmospheric System Studies (GASS) composite Lagrangian transition case and the Atlantic Trade Wind Experiment (ATEX) case, it is shown that the lack of subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interaction, as is the case in current generation climate models, accelerates the Sc-to-Cu transition. Our analysis suggests that in cloud-topped boundary layers subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interactions contribute to stronger production of temperature variance, which in turn leads to stronger buoyancy production of turbulent kinetic energy and helps to maintain the Sc cover.

  18. The potential impact of turbulent velocity fluctuations on drizzle formation in Cumulus clouds in an idealized 2D setup

    CERN Document Server

    Andrejczuk, M; Blyth, A

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses a potential impact of turbulent velocity fluctuations of the air on a drizzle formation in Cumulus clouds. Two different representations of turbulent velocity fluctuations for a microphysics formulated in a Lagrangian framework are discussed - random walk model and the interpolation, and its effect on microphysical properties of the cloud investigated. Turbulent velocity fluctuations significantly enhances velocity differences between colliding droplets, especially those having small sizes. As a result drizzle forms faster in simulations including a representation of turbulence. Both representations of turbulent velocity fluctuations, random walk and interpolation, have similar effect on droplet spectrum evolution, but interpolation of the velocity does account for a possible anisotropy in the air velocity. All discussed simulations show relatively large standard deviation ($\\sim$1${\\mu}m$) of the cloud droplet distribution from the onset of cloud formation is observed. Because coalesen...

  19. Gene expression microarray profiles of cumulus cells in lean and overweight-obese polycystic ovary syndrome patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenigsberg, Shlomit; Bentov, Yaakov; Chalifa-Caspi, Vered; Potashnik, Gad; Ofir, Rivka; Birk, Ohad S

    2009-02-01

    The aim of this work was to study gene expression patterns of cultured cumulus cells from lean and overweight-obese polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) patients using genome-wide oligonucleotide microarray. The study included 25 patients undergoing in vitro fertilization and intra-cytoplasmic sperm injection: 12 diagnosed with PCOS and 13 matching controls. Each of the groups was subdivided into lean (body mass index (BMI) 27) subgroups. The following comparisons of gene expression data were made: lean PCOS versus lean controls, lean PCOS versus overweight PCOS, all PCOS versus all controls, overweight PCOS versus overweight controls, overweight controls versus lean controls and all overweight versus all lean. The largest number of differentially expressed genes (DEGs), with fold change (FC) |FC| >or= 1.5 and P-value lean PCOS versus lean controls comparison (487) with most of these genes being down-regulated in PCOS. The second largest group of DEGs originated from the comparison of lean PCOS versus overweight PCOS (305). The other comparisons resulted in a much smaller number of DEGs (174, 109, 125 and 12, respectively). In the comparison of lean PCOS with lean controls, most DEGs were transcription factors and components of the extracellular matrix and two pathways, Wnt/beta-catenin and mitogen-activated protein kinase. When comparing overweight PCOS with overweight controls, most DEGs were of pathways related to insulin signaling, metabolism and energy production. The finding of unique gene expression patterns in cumulus cells from the two PCOS subtypes is in agreement with other studies that have found the two to be separate entities with potentially different pathophysiologies.

  20. Role of Cumulus Parameterization Scheme on the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation over Southeast Asia in RegCM4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lui, Yuk Sing; Tam, Chi Yung Francis; Au-Yeung, Yee Man

    2017-04-01

    This study examines the sensitivity of precipitation simulations over the CORDEX-Southeast Asia (SEA) domain to the cumulus convection scheme used in the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). With the ERA-interim reanalysis as lateral boundary conditions, model integrations using the MIT-Emanuel cumulus parameterization scheme, and those using a "mixed convection scheme" (namely with the MIT-Emanuel scheme over ocean and the Grell scheme with Arakawa Schubert-type closure over land), have been carried out for the 2001-2010 period. On the seasonal average, the use of the mixed convection scheme, in comparison to MIT-Emanuel scheme everywhere, improves rainfall simulations over the South China Sea (SCS) by reducing the summer-time wet bias there. On the other hand, runs with the mixed convection scheme under(over)-estimate rainfall over land in Southeastern China (western coastlines of Indochina and the Philippines). For the diurnal variation of precipitation, it is found that the RegCM4 can reproduce well the characteristics of the diurnal cycle (DC) in SEA. Compared with the mixed convection scheme, the MIT-Emanual scheme performs better in reproducing the amplitude and phase of DC over the landside coastal area of Indochina during summer. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis indicates that switching from the MIT-Emanuel scheme to the mixed convection scheme leads to a reduction in importance of the second EOF mode, which corresponds to rainfall peaked in the afternoon (local time). Further analyses reveal that such underestimation is related to increased cloud cover in RegCM4 using the mixed convection scheme; enhanced cloudiness in turn leads to reduced surface air temperature over land and thus reduced convective instability at 1200 and 1500 local time in the model simulations.

  1. A Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function-Based Scheme for the Balanced Initial Ensemble Generation of an Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Fei; ZHU Jiang

    2010-01-01

    The initial ensemble perturbations for an ensemble data assimilation system are expected to reasonably sample model uncertainty at the time of analysis to further reduce analysis uncertainty.Therefore,the careful choice of an initial ensemble perturbation method that dynamically cycles ensemble perturbations is required for the optimal performance of the system.Based on the multivariate empirical onhogonal function(MEOF)method,a new ensemble initialization scheme is developed to generate balanced initial perturbations for the ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)data assimilation,with a reasonable consideration of the physical relationships between different model variables.The scheme is applied in assimilation experiments with a global spectral atmospheric model and with real observations.The proposed perturbation method is compared to the commonly used method of spatially-correlated random perturbations.The comparisons show that the model uncertainties prior to the first analysis time,which are forecasted from the balanced ensemble initial fields,maintain a much more reasonable spread and a more accurate forecast error covariance than those from the randomly perturbed initial fields.The analysis results are further improved by the balanced ensemble initialization scheme due to more accurate background information.Also,a 20-day continuous assimilation experiment shows that the ensemble spreads for each model variable are still retained in reasonable ranges without considering additional perturbations or inflations during the assimilation cycles,while the ensemble spreads from the randomly perturbed initialization scheme decrease and collapse rapidly.

  2. Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian

    2015-04-01

    Seasonal forecasts have an important socio-economic value in hydro-meteorological forecasting. The applications are for example hydropower management, spring flood prediction and water resources management. The latter includes prediction of low flows, primordial for navigation, water quality assessment, droughts and agricultural water needs. Traditionally, seasonal hydrological forecasts are done using the observed discharge from previous years, so called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). With the recent increasing development of seasonal meteorological forecasts, the incentive for developing and improving seasonal hydrological forecasts is great. In this study, a seasonal hydrological forecast, driven by the ECMWF's System 4 (SEA), was compared with an ESP of modelled discharge using observations. The hydrological model used for both forecasts was the LISFLOOD model, run over a European domain with a spatial resolution of 5 km. The forecasts were produced from 1990 until the present time, with a daily time step. They were issued once a month with a lead time of seven months. The SEA forecasts are constituted of 15 ensemble members, extended to 51 members every three months. The ESP forecasts comprise 20 ensembles and served as a benchmark for this comparative study. The forecast systems were compared using a diverse set of verification metrics, such as continuous ranked probability scores, ROC curves, anomaly correlation coefficients and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients. These metrics were computed over several time-scales, ranging from a weekly to a six-months basis, for each season. The evaluation enabled the investigation of several aspects of seasonal forecasting, such as limits of predictability, timing of high and low flows, as well as exceedance of percentiles. The analysis aimed at exploring the spatial distribution and timely evolution of the limits of predictability.

  3. Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Stephens, Elisabeth; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the limits of predictability in dynamical seasonal discharge forecasting, in both space and time, over Europe. Seasonal forecasts have an important socioeconomic value. Applications are numerous and cover hydropower management, spring flood prediction, low flow prediction for navigation and agricultural water demands. Additionally, the constant increase in NWP skill for longer lead times and the predicted increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-meteorological extremes, have amplified the incentive to promote and further improve hydrological forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In this study, seasonal hydrological forecasts (SEA), driven by the ECMWF's System 4 in hindcast mode, were analysed against an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) benchmark. The ESP was forced with an ensemble of resampled historical meteorological observations and started with perfect initial conditions. Both forecasts were produced by the LISFLOOD model, run on the pan-European scale with a spatial resolution of 5 by 5 km. The forecasts were issued monthly on a daily time step, from 1990 until the current time, up to a lead time of 7 months. The seasonal discharge forecasts were analysed against the ESP on a catchment scale in terms of their accuracy, skill and sharpness, using a diverse set of verification metrics (e.g. KGE, CRPSS and ROC). Additionally, a reverse-ESP was constructed by forcing the LISFLOOD model with a single perfect meteorological set of observations and initiated from an ensemble of resampled historical initial conditions. The comparison of the ESP with the reverse-ESP approach enabled the identification of the respective contribution of meteorological forcings and hydrologic initial conditions errors to seasonal discharge forecasting uncertainties in Europe. These results could help pinpoint target elements of the forecasting chain which, after being improved, could lead to substantial increase in discharge predictability

  4. A Framework for Non-Equilibrium Statistical Ensemble Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BI Qiao; HE Zu-Tan; LIU Jie

    2011-01-01

    Since Gibbs synthesized a general equilibrium statistical ensemble theory, many theorists have attempted to generalized the Gibbsian theory to non-equilibrium phenomena domain, however the status of the theory of nonequilibrium phenomena can not be said as firm as well established as the Gibbsian ensemble theory. In this work, we present a framework for the non-equilibrium statistical ensemble formalism based on a subdynamic kinetic equation (SKE) rooted from the Brussels-Austin school and followed by some up-to-date works. The constructed key is to use a similarity transformation between Gibbsian ensembles formalism based on Liouville equation and the subdynamic ensemble formalism based on the SKE. Using this formalism, we study the spin-Boson system, as cases of weak coupling or strongly coupling, and obtain the reduced density operators for the Canonical ensembles easily.

  5. Cluster ensembles, quantization and the dilogarithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fock, Vladimir; Goncharov, Alexander B.

    2009-01-01

    , possibly degenerate, and the space has a Poisson structure. The map is compatible with these structures. The dilogarithm together with its motivic and quantum avatars plays a central role in the cluster ensemble structure. We define a non-commutative -deformation of the -space. When is a root of unity...... group . It is an algebraic-geometric avatar of higher Teichmüller theory on related to . We suggest that there exists a duality between the and spaces. In particular, we conjecture that the tropical points of one of the spaces parametrise a basis in the space of functions on the Langlands dual space. We...

  6. Accurate Atom Counting in Mesoscopic Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Hume, D B; Joos, M; Muessel, W; Strobel, H; Oberthaler, M K

    2013-01-01

    Many cold atom experiments rely on precise atom number detection, especially in the context of quantum-enhanced metrology where effects at the single particle level are important. Here, we investigate the limits of atom number counting via resonant fluorescence detection for mesoscopic samples of trapped atoms. We characterize the precision of these fluorescence measurements beginning from the single-atom level up to more than one thousand. By investigating the primary noise sources, we obtain single-atom resolution for atom numbers as high as 1200. This capability is an essential prerequisite for future experiments with highly entangled states of mesoscopic atomic ensembles.

  7. Accurate Atom Counting in Mesoscopic Ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hume, D. B.; Stroescu, I.; Joos, M.; Muessel, W.; Strobel, H.; Oberthaler, M. K.

    2013-12-01

    Many cold atom experiments rely on precise atom number detection, especially in the context of quantum-enhanced metrology where effects at the single particle level are important. Here, we investigate the limits of atom number counting via resonant fluorescence detection for mesoscopic samples of trapped atoms. We characterize the precision of these fluorescence measurements beginning from the single-atom level up to more than one thousand. By investigating the primary noise sources, we obtain single-atom resolution for atom numbers as high as 1200. This capability is an essential prerequisite for future experiments with highly entangled states of mesoscopic atomic ensembles.

  8. Supervised Ensemble Classification of Kepler Variable Stars

    CERN Document Server

    Bass, Gideon

    2016-01-01

    Variable star analysis and classification is an important task in the understanding of stellar features and processes. While historically classifications have been done manually by highly skilled experts, the recent and rapid expansion in the quantity and quality of data has demanded new techniques, most notably automatic classification through supervised machine learning. We present an expansion of existing work on the field by analyzing variable stars in the {\\em Kepler} field using an ensemble approach, combining multiple characterization and classification techniques to produce improved classification rates. Classifications for each of the roughly 150,000 stars observed by {\\em Kepler} are produced separating the stars into one of 14 variable star classes.

  9. Modeling Coordination Problems in a Music Ensemble

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frimodt-Møller, Søren R.

    2008-01-01

    This paper considers in general terms, how musicians are able to coordinate through rational choices in a situation of (temporary) doubt in an ensemble performance. A fictitious example involving a 5-bar development in an unknown piece of music is analyzed in terms of epistemic logic, more...... specifically a multi-agent system, where it is shown that perfect coordination can only be certain to take place if the musicians have common knowledge of certain rules of the composition. We subsequently argue, however, that the musicians need not agree on the central features of the piece of music in order...

  10. Asymptotic expansions for the Gaussian unitary ensemble

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haagerup, Uffe; Thorbjørnsen, Steen

    2012-01-01

    Let g : R ¿ C be a C8-function with all derivatives bounded and let trn denote the normalized trace on the n × n matrices. In Ref. 3 Ercolani and McLaughlin established asymptotic expansions of the mean value ¿{trn(g(Xn))} for a rather general class of random matrices Xn, including the Gaussian...... Unitary Ensemble (GUE). Using an analytical approach, we provide in the present paper an alternative proof of this asymptotic expansion in the GUE case. Specifically we derive for a random matrix Xn that where k is an arbitrary positive integer. Considered as mappings of g, we determine the coefficients...

  11. Accurate atom counting in mesoscopic ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hume, D B; Stroescu, I; Joos, M; Muessel, W; Strobel, H; Oberthaler, M K

    2013-12-20

    Many cold atom experiments rely on precise atom number detection, especially in the context of quantum-enhanced metrology where effects at the single particle level are important. Here, we investigate the limits of atom number counting via resonant fluorescence detection for mesoscopic samples of trapped atoms. We characterize the precision of these fluorescence measurements beginning from the single-atom level up to more than one thousand. By investigating the primary noise sources, we obtain single-atom resolution for atom numbers as high as 1200. This capability is an essential prerequisite for future experiments with highly entangled states of mesoscopic atomic ensembles.

  12. Validation of the Air Force Weather Agency Ensemble Prediction Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-27

    to deterministic models. Results from ensemble weather input into operational risk management ( ORM ) destruction of enemy air defense simulations...growth during the analysis period (Toth and Kalnay, 1993; Toth and Kalnay, 1997). From this framework the ensemble transform bred vector, ensemble...features. Each of its 10 members is run independently using different configurations in the framework of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF

  13. Unconditional two-mode squeezing of separated atomic ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Parkins, A S; Solano, E

    2005-01-01

    We propose schemes for the unconditional preparation of a two-mode squeezed state of effective bosonic modes realized in a pair of atomic ensembles interacting collectively with optical cavity and laser fields. The scheme uses Raman transitions between stable atomic ground states and under ideal conditions produces pure entangled states in the steady state. The scheme works both for ensembles confined within a single cavity and for ensembles confined in separate, cascaded cavities.

  14. The Moment Convergence Rates for Largest Eigenvalues of β Ensembles

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun Shan XIE

    2013-01-01

    The paper focuses on the largest eigenvalues of the β-Hermite ensemble and theβ-Laguerre ensemble.In particular,we obtain the precise moment convergence rates of their largest eigenvalues.The results are motivated by the complete convergence for partial sums of i.i.d.random variables,and the proofs depend on the small deviations for largest eigenvalues of the β ensembles and tail inequalities of the general β Tracy-Widom law.

  15. Extracting Value from Ensembles for Cloud-Free Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    for Medium range Weather Forecasting EMean Ensemble mean ETR Ensemble transform with rescaling EUMETSAT European Organization for the...transform method (ET) with rescaling ( ETR ) to define the initial atmospheric uncertainty (Wei et al. 2008). Adapted from the ET method devised by...variances of each grid point to further restrain the initial ensemble spread. The ETR method replaced the breeding method in GEFS during NCEP’s May

  16. On sequential observation processing in localized ensemble Kalman filters

    OpenAIRE

    Nerger, Lars

    2014-01-01

    The different variants of current ensemble square-root Kalman filters assimilate either all observations at once or perform a sequence in which batches of observations or each single observation is assimilated. The sequential observation processing is used in filter algorithms like the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) and the ensemble square-root filter (EnSRF) and can result in computationally efficient algorithms because matrix inversions in the observation space are reduced to the ...

  17. Sequential ensemble-based optimal design for parameter estimation: SEQUENTIAL ENSEMBLE-BASED OPTIMAL DESIGN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Man, Jun [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Zhang, Jiangjiang [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Li, Weixuan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zeng, Lingzao [Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Institute of Soil and Water Resources and Environmental Science, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou China; Wu, Laosheng [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside California USA

    2016-10-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in parameter estimation for hydrological models. The focus of most previous studies was to develop more efficient analysis (estimation) algorithms. On the other hand, it is intuitively understandable that a well-designed sampling (data-collection) strategy should provide more informative measurements and subsequently improve the parameter estimation. In this work, a Sequential Ensemble-based Optimal Design (SEOD) method, coupled with EnKF, information theory and sequential optimal design, is proposed to improve the performance of parameter estimation. Based on the first-order and second-order statistics, different information metrics including the Shannon entropy difference (SD), degrees of freedom for signal (DFS) and relative entropy (RE) are used to design the optimal sampling strategy, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by synthetic one-dimensional and two-dimensional unsaturated flow case studies. It is shown that the designed sampling strategies can provide more accurate parameter estimation and state prediction compared with conventional sampling strategies. Optimal sampling designs based on various information metrics perform similarly in our cases. The effect of ensemble size on the optimal design is also investigated. Overall, larger ensemble size improves the parameter estimation and convergence of optimal sampling strategy. Although the proposed method is applied to unsaturated flow problems in this study, it can be equally applied in any other hydrological problems.

  18. Ensemble-based forecasting at Horns Rev: Ensemble conversion and kernel dressing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    . The obtained ensemble forecasts of wind power are then converted into predictive distributions with an original adaptive kernel dressing method. The shape of the kernels is driven by a mean-variance model, the parameters of which are recursively estimated in order to maximize the overall skill of obtained...

  19. Evaluating Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Uncertainty Using A Grand Ensemble of Ensemble Prediction Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    variable is appropriately sized for the region ( UCAR 2010). 4. An Isotropic Joint-Ensemble Majumdar and Finochio (2010) develop a probability circle...Forecasting, 22, 671–675. UCAR , cited 2010: NCEP Perturbation Method. [Available online at http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/ens_matrix

  20. The MIP Ensemble Simulation: Local Ensemble Statistics in the Cosmic Web

    CERN Document Server

    Aragon-Calvo, M A

    2012-01-01

    Here we present a novel N-body simulation technique that allows us to compute ensemble statistics on a local basis, directly relating halo properties to their environment. This is achieved by the use of an ensemble simulation in which the otherwise independent realizations share the same fluctuations above a given cut-off scale. This produces a constrained ensemble where the LSS is common to all realizations while having an independent halo population. By generating a large number of semi-independent realizations we can effectively increase the local halo density by an arbitrary factor thus breaking the fundamental limit of the finite halo density (for a given halo mass range) determined by the halo mass function. This technique allows us to compute local ensemble statistics of the matter/halo distribution at a particular position in space, removing the intrinsic stochasticity in the halo formation process and directly relating halo properties to their environment. This is a major improvement over global desc...

  1. Deformed Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble Analysis of the Interacting Boson Model

    CERN Document Server

    Pato, M P; Lima, C L; Hussein, M S; Alhassid, Y

    1994-01-01

    A Deformed Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (DGOE) which interpolates between the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble and a Poissonian Ensemble is constructed. This new ensemble is then applied to the analysis of the chaotic properties of the low lying collective states of nuclei described by the Interacting Boson Model (IBM). This model undergoes a transition order-chaos-order from the $SU(3)$ limit to the $O(6)$ limit. Our analysis shows that the quantum fluctuations of the IBM Hamiltonian, both of the spectrum and the eigenvectors, follow the expected behaviour predicted by the DGOE when one goes from one limit to the other.

  2. Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

    2015-12-28

    We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

  3. Adiabatic Passage of Collective Excitations in Atomic Ensembles

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIYong; MIAOYuan-Xiu; SUNChang-Pu

    2004-01-01

    We describe a theoretical scheme that allows for transfer of quantum states of atomic collective excitation between two macroscopic atomic ensembles localized in two spatially-separated domains. The conception is based on the occurrence of double-exciton dark states due to the collective destructive quantum interference of the emissions from the two atomic ensembles. With an adiabatically coherence manipulation for the atom-field couplings by stimulated Rmann scattering, the dark states will extrapolate from an exciton state of an ensemble to that of another. This realizes the transport of quantum information among atomic ensembles.

  4. Adiabatic Passage of Collective Excitations in Atomic Ensembles

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yong; MIAO Yuan-Xiu; SUN Chang-Pu

    2004-01-01

    We describe a theoretical scheme that allows for transfer of quantum states of atomic collective excitation between two macroscopic atomic ensembles localized in two spatially-separated domains. The conception is based on the occurrence of double-exciton dark states due to the collective destructive quantum interference of the emissions from the two atomic ensembles. With an adiabatically coherence manipulation for the atom-field couplings by stimulated Ramann scattering, the dark states will extrapolate from an exciton state of an ensemble to that of another. This realizes the transport of quantum information among atomic ensembles.

  5. Relation between native ensembles and experimental structures of proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Best, R. B.; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; DePristo, M. A.

    2006-01-01

    Different experimental structures of the same protein or of proteins with high sequence similarity contain many small variations. Here we construct ensembles of "high-sequence similarity Protein Data Bank" (HSP) structures and consider the extent to which such ensembles represent the structural...... Data Bank ensembles; moreover, we show that the effects of uncertainties in structure determination are insufficient to explain the results. These results highlight the importance of accounting for native-state protein dynamics in making comparisons with ensemble-averaged experimental data and suggest...

  6. Fractional exclusion statistics and the Random Matrix Boson Ensemble

    CERN Document Server

    Hernández-Quiroz, Saul; Benet, Luis; Flores, Jorge; Cocho, Germinal

    2012-01-01

    The k-body Gaussian Embedded Ensemble of Random Matrices is considered for N bosons distributed on two single-particle levels. When k = N, the ensemble is equivalent to the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE), and when k = 2 it corresponds to the Two-body Random Ensemble (TBRE) for bosons. It is shown that the energy spectrum leads to a rank function which is of the form of a discrete generalized beta distribution. The same distribution is obtained assuming N non-interacting quasiparticles that obey the fractional exclusion statistics introduced by Haldane two decades ago.

  7. Cluster Ensemble-based Image Segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoru Wang

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Image segmentation is the foundation of computer vision applications. In this paper, we propose a new\tcluster ensemble-based image\tsegmentation algorithm, which overcomes several problems of traditional methods. We make two main contributions in this paper. First, we introduce the cluster ensemble concept to fuse the segmentation results from different types of visual features effectively, which can deliver a better final result and achieve a much more stable performance for broad categories of images. Second, we exploit the PageRank idea from Internet applications and apply it to the image segmentation task. This can improve the final segmentation results by combining the spatial information of the image and the semantic similarity of regions. Our experiments on four public image databases validate the superiority of our algorithm over conventional single type of feature or multiple types of features-based algorithms, since our algorithm can fuse multiple types of features effectively for better segmentation results. Moreover, our method is also proved to be very competitive in comparison with other state-of-the-art segmentation algorithms.

  8. Online cross-validation-based ensemble learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benkeser, David; Ju, Cheng; Lendle, Sam; van der Laan, Mark

    2017-05-04

    Online estimators update a current estimate with a new incoming batch of data without having to revisit past data thereby providing streaming estimates that are scalable to big data. We develop flexible, ensemble-based online estimators of an infinite-dimensional target parameter, such as a regression function, in the setting where data are generated sequentially by a common conditional data distribution given summary measures of the past. This setting encompasses a wide range of time-series models and, as special case, models for independent and identically distributed data. Our estimator considers a large library of candidate online estimators and uses online cross-validation to identify the algorithm with the best performance. We show that by basing estimates on the cross-validation-selected algorithm, we are asymptotically guaranteed to perform as well as the true, unknown best-performing algorithm. We provide extensions of this approach including online estimation of the optimal ensemble of candidate online estimators. We illustrate excellent performance of our methods using simulations and a real data example where we make streaming predictions of infectious disease incidence using data from a large database. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Nanobiosensing with Arrays and Ensembles of Nanoelectrodes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najmeh Karimian

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first reports dating back to the mid-1990s, ensembles and arrays of nanoelectrodes (NEEs and NEAs, respectively have gained an important role as advanced electroanalytical tools thank to their unique characteristics which include, among others, dramatically improved signal/noise ratios, enhanced mass transport and suitability for extreme miniaturization. From the year 2000 onward, these properties have been exploited to develop electrochemical biosensors in which the surfaces of NEEs/NEAs have been functionalized with biorecognition layers using immobilization modes able to take the maximum advantage from the special morphology and composite nature of their surface. This paper presents an updated overview of this field. It consists of two parts. In the first, we discuss nanofabrication methods and the principles of functioning of NEEs/NEAs, focusing, in particular, on those features which are important for the development of highly sensitive and miniaturized biosensors. In the second part, we review literature references dealing the bioanalytical and biosensing applications of sensors based on biofunctionalized arrays/ensembles of nanoelectrodes, focusing our attention on the most recent advances, published in the last five years. The goal of this review is both to furnish fundamental knowledge to researchers starting their activity in this field and provide critical information on recent achievements which can stimulate new ideas for future developments to experienced scientists.

  10. Hsaing Waing: Classical Ensemble of Myanmar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chalermkit Kengkeaw

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Hsaing Waing is a classical music ensemble and a prominent culturalidentity of Myanmar. The Hsaing Waing ensemble consists of many instruments such as the Pat Waing, Muang Hsaing, Hne, Chauk Lon Bat, Byaung, Wa, Wallet Kok, Yakin, Si, and Mong. The earliest historical record of the Hsaing Waing is in 1544 where the Pat Waing and possibly the Hsaing Waing, was in royal service at the court of King Tabinshwehti of the Taungoo dynasty and prospered under the Kaunbaun dynasty up to colonial rule. During colonization, Hsaing Waing’s popularity declined but other innovations were introduced such as modern recording mediums and broadcasts which transferred the popularity of Hsaing Waing to a broader public audience and brought innovation to religious music, ceremonial rituals, fusion of westernmusical instruments such as the piano, violin and mandolin. The wealth of knowledge and numbers of connoisseur during the Kaunbaun dynasty led to the transfer of knowledge to many apprentices which were responsible for the development and adaptation and continuation of Hsaing Waing during colonization, socialism and independence. The transfer of knowledge was carried out by previous generations through apprentices, family members, close relatives and inspired individuals. The factors for the successful inheritance of Hsaing Waing are management, education, musicians and opportunity.

  11. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaodong Luo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF by (in effect adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work, an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise, the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/or enhance its stability against filter divergence, especially in the small ensemble scenario.

  12. Deterministic Mean-Field Ensemble Kalman Filtering

    KAUST Repository

    Law, Kody J. H.

    2016-05-03

    The proof of convergence of the standard ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) from Le Gland, Monbet, and Tran [Large sample asymptotics for the ensemble Kalman filter, in The Oxford Handbook of Nonlinear Filtering, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2011, pp. 598--631] is extended to non-Gaussian state-space models. A density-based deterministic approximation of the mean-field limit EnKF (DMFEnKF) is proposed, consisting of a PDE solver and a quadrature rule. Given a certain minimal order of convergence k between the two, this extends to the deterministic filter approximation, which is therefore asymptotically superior to standard EnKF for dimension d<2k. The fidelity of approximation of the true distribution is also established using an extension of the total variation metric to random measures. This is limited by a Gaussian bias term arising from nonlinearity/non-Gaussianity of the model, which arises in both deterministic and standard EnKF. Numerical results support and extend the theory.

  13. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, X.

    2012-10-03

    Covariance inflation and localisation are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by (in effect) adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work, an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise, the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/or enhance its stability against filter divergence, especially in the small ensemble scenario.

  14. Effect of Doubling the Ensemble Size on the Performance of Ensemble Prediction in the Warm Season Using MOGREPS Implemented at the KMA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun Kyung KAY; Hyun Mee KIM; Young-Youn PARK; Joohyung SON

    2013-01-01

    Using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) implemented at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA),the effect of doubling the ensemble size on the performance of ensemble prediction in the warm season was evaluated.Because a finite ensemble size causes sampling error in the full forecast probability distribution function (PDF),ensemble size is closely related to the efficiency of the ensemble prediction system.Prediction capability according to doubling the ensemble size was evaluated by increasing the number of ensembles from 24 to 48 in MOGREPS implemented at the KMA.The initial analysis perturbations generated by the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) were integrated for 10 days from 22 May to 23 June 2009.Several statistical verification scores were used to measure the accuracy,reliability,and resolution of ensemble probabilistic forecasts for 24 and 48 ensemble member forecasts.Even though the results were not significant,the accuracy of ensemble prediction improved slightly as ensemble size increased,especially for longer forecast times in the Northern Hemisphere.While increasing the number of ensemble members resulted in a slight improvement in resolution as forecast time increased,inconsistent results were obtained for the scores assessing the reliability of ensemble prediction.The overall performance of ensemble prediction in terms of accuracy,resolution,and reliability increased slightly with ensemble size,especially for longer forecast times.

  15. Temperature profiles from MBT casts from the CIRRUS and CUMULUS from Ocean Weather Station K (OWS-K) and M (OWS-M) in the North Atlantic Ocean from 01 January 1969 to 16 January 1970 (NODC Accession 7000939)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Bathythermograph data were collected from the CIRRUS and CUMULUS within a 1-mile radius of Ocean Weather Station K (4500N 01600W), M (6600N 00200E), and in transit....

  16. 电沉积咖啡酸玻碳修饰电极对抗坏血酸的催化氧化%Electrocatalytic Oxidation of AA at GCE Modified by Electrodeposited Films of Caffeic Acid

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    任旺; 罗红群; 李念兵

    2005-01-01

    A stable electroactive thin film of poly(caffeic acid) has been deposited on the surface of a glassy carbon electrode(GCE) by potentiostatic technique in a pH 7.0 phosphate buffer containing caffeic acid. The poly(caffeic acid)/glassy carbon electrode is easy to be prepared with good stability and reproducibility. The voltammetric behavior of ascorbic acid(AA) at the poly(caffeic acid) modified glassy carbon electrode was studied by cyclic voltammetry. It has been found that the catalytic current depends on the concentration and pH of ascorbic acid. At pH 7.7,the oxidation peak current of ascorbic acid on the modified electrode is the maximum. The oxidation peak current is proportional to the ascorbic acid concentration in the range of 4.0 × 10-5 to 2.0 × 10-2 mol/L and the detection limit for ascorbic acid is 1.0× 10-5 mol/L. The proposed method can be applied to the determination of ascorbic acid in practical tablet samples with simplicity, rapidness and accurate results.%在pH=7.0的磷酸缓冲溶液中采用电沉积技术将咖啡酸修饰于玻碳电极表面制备了一层稳定的薄膜,该修饰电极制备简单,稳定性良好.用循环伏安法研究了抗坏血酸在修饰电极上的电化学行为,其氧化峰电流与抗坏血酸的浓度和pH值有关,当pH值达到7.7时,抗坏血酸在修饰电极上的氧化峰电流最大,氧化峰电流与抗坏血酸浓度在4.0×10-5~2.0×10-2mol/L范围成良好的线性关系,检测限为1.0×10-5mol/L,方法简单、快速、准确,可应用于抗坏血酸药片的检测.

  17. Thermal Insulation Distribution Pattern of Layered Clothing Ensemble

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李俊; 韦鸿发; 刘岩; 张渭源

    2004-01-01

    With a thermal manikin, the distribution pattern of thermal insulation in multi-layered clothing ensemble is studied. It is found that the thermal insulation of multi-layered clothing ensemble has certain statistical relationship with the thermal insulation of each layer, and the prediction equation has been established.

  18. Building Identity in Collegiate Midlevel Choral Ensembles: The Director's Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, Marci L.

    2017-01-01

    This study was designed to explore the director's perspective on the role organizational images play in social identity development in midlevel choral ensembles. Using a phenomenological methodology, I interviewed 10 current or former directors of midlevel choral ensembles from eight midwestern U.S. colleges and universities. Directors cited…

  19. Calculation of the chemical potential in the Gibbs ensemble

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, B.; Frenkel, D.

    1989-01-01

    An expression for the chemical potential in the Gibbs ensemble is derived. For finite system sizes this expression for the chemical potential differs system-atically from Widom's test particle insertion method for the N, V, T ensemble. In order to compare these two methods for calculating the chemic

  20. Stochastic and dynamical downscaling of ensemble precipitation forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brussolo, E.; von Hardenberg, J.; Rebora, N.

    2009-04-01

    Forecasting hydrogeological risk in small basins requires quantitative forecasts and an estimate of the probability of occurrence of severe, localized precipitation events at spatial scales of the order of tens of kilometers or less, significantly smaller than those currently provided by large scale, global, ensemble forecasting systems (EPS). Dynamically based forecasts at these scales can be obtained extending EPS scenarios with high-resolution, non-hydrostatic, limited area ensemble prediction systems. An alternative is represented by the direct application of stochastic downscaling techniques to the large scale ensemble forecasts. This work compares the performances of these two very different ensemble forecast downscaling approaches. To this purpose we consider ensemble forecasts provided by the ECMWF EPS, downscaled in space using the RainFARM stochastic technique [1], and ensembles of forecasts obtained from the COSMO-LEPS limited area prediction system (which also uses ECMWF EPS ensemble members as boundary conditions), for three intense precipitation events over northern Italy in 2006. The statistical properties of the fields produced with these two techniques are compared and the skill of the resulting ensembles is verified against direct precipitation measurements from a dense network of rain gauges. Reference: 1. Rebora, N., L. Ferraris, J. von Hardenberg, and A. Provenzale, 2006: The RainFARM: Rainfall Downscaling by a Filtered AutoRegressive Model. J. Hydrometeorol., 7, 724-738.

  1. A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad

    2014-08-01

    This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

  2. Ensemble Bayesian model averaging using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrugt, J.A.; Diks, C.G.H.; Clark, M.

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In t

  3. Conductor and Ensemble Performance Expressivity and State Festival Ratings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Harry E.; Chang, E. Christina

    2005-01-01

    This study is the second in a series examining the relationship between conducting and ensemble performance. The purpose was to further examine the associations among conductor, ensemble performance expressivity, and festival ratings. Participants were asked to rate the expressivity of video-only conducting and parallel audio-only excerpts from a…

  4. Ensembles and their modules as objects of cartosemiotic inquiry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hansgeorg Schlichtmann

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The structured set of signs in a map face -- here called map-face aggregate or MFA -- and the associated marginal notes make up an ensemble of modules or components (modular ensemble. Such ensembles are recognized where groups of entries are intuitively viewed as complex units, which includes the case that entries are consulted jointly and thus are involved in the same process of sign reception. Modular ensembles are amenable to semiotic study, just as are written or pictorial stories. Four kinds (one of them mentioned above are discussed in detail, two involving single MFAs, the other two being assemblages of maps, such as atlases. In terms of their internal structure, two types are recognized: the combinate (or grouping, in which modules are directly linked by combinatorial relations (example above, and the cumulate (or collection (of documents, in which modules are indirectly related through some conceptual commonality (example: series of geological maps. The discussion then turns to basic points concerning modular ensembles (identification of a module, internal organization of an ensemble, and characteristics which establish an ensemble as a unit and further to a few general semiotic concepts as they relate to the present research. Since this paper originated as a reaction to several of A. Wolodtschenko’s recent publications, it concludes with comments on some of his arguments which pertain to modular ensembles.

  5. An iterative ensemble Kalman filter for reservoir engineering applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krymskaya, M.V.; Hanea, R.G.; Verlaan, M.

    2009-01-01

    The study has been focused on examining the usage and the applicability of ensemble Kalman filtering techniques to the history matching procedures. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is often applied nowadays to solving such a problem. Meanwhile, traditional EnKF requires assumption of the

  6. Ensemble Forecast: A New Approach to Uncertainty and Predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    Ensemble techniques have been used to generate daily numerical weather forecasts since the 1990s in numerical centers around the world due to the increase in computation ability. One of the main purposes of numerical ensemble forecasts is to try to assimilate the initial uncertainty (initial error) and the forecast uncertainty (forecast error) by applying either the initial perturbation method or the multi-model/multiphysics method. In fact, the mean of an ensemble forecast offers a better forecast than a deterministic (or control) forecast after a short lead time (3 5 days) for global modelling applications. There is about a 1-2-day improvement in the forecast skill when using an ensemble mean instead of a single forecast for longer lead-time. The skillful forecast (65% and above of an anomaly correlation) could be extended to 8 days (or longer) by present-day ensemble forecast systems. Furthermore, ensemble forecasts can deliver a probabilistic forecast to the users, which is based on the probability density function (PDF)instead of a single-value forecast from a traditional deterministic system. It has long been recognized that the ensemble forecast not only improves our weather forecast predictability but also offers a remarkable forecast for the future uncertainty, such as the relative measure of predictability (RMOP) and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF). Not surprisingly, the success of the ensemble forecast and its wide application greatly increase the confidence of model developers and research communities.

  7. Ensemble Methods for Classification of Physical Activities from Wrist Accelerometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Alok Kumar; Tjondronegoro, Dian; Chandran, Vinod; Trost, Stewart G

    2017-09-01

    To investigate whether the use of ensemble learning algorithms improve physical activity recognition accuracy compared to the single classifier algorithms, and to compare the classification accuracy achieved by three conventional ensemble machine learning methods (bagging, boosting, random forest) and a custom ensemble model comprising four algorithms commonly used for activity recognition (binary decision tree, k nearest neighbor, support vector machine, and neural network). The study used three independent data sets that included wrist-worn accelerometer data. For each data set, a four-step classification framework consisting of data preprocessing, feature extraction, normalization and feature selection, and classifier training and testing was implemented. For the custom ensemble, decisions from the single classifiers were aggregated using three decision fusion methods: weighted majority vote, naïve Bayes combination, and behavior knowledge space combination. Classifiers were cross-validated using leave-one subject out cross-validation and compared on the basis of average F1 scores. In all three data sets, ensemble learning methods consistently outperformed the individual classifiers. Among the conventional ensemble methods, random forest models provided consistently high activity recognition; however, the custom ensemble model using weighted majority voting demonstrated the highest classification accuracy in two of the three data sets. Combining multiple individual classifiers using conventional or custom ensemble learning methods can improve activity recognition accuracy from wrist-worn accelerometer data.

  8. Competitive Learning Neural Network Ensemble Weighted by Predicted Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Qiang

    2010-01-01

    Ensemble approaches have been shown to enhance classification by combining the outputs from a set of voting classifiers. Diversity in error patterns among base classifiers promotes ensemble performance. Multi-task learning is an important characteristic for Neural Network classifiers. Introducing a secondary output unit that receives different…

  9. Exact ensemble density-functional theory for excited states

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, Zeng-hui; Pribram-Jones, Aurora; Burke, Kieron; Needs, Richard J; Ullrich, Carsten A

    2014-01-01

    We construct exact Kohn-Sham potentials for the ensemble density-functional theory (EDFT) of excited states from the ground and excited states of helium. The exchange-correlation potential is compared with current approximations, which miss prominent features. The ensemble derivative discontinuity is tested, and the virial theorem is proven and illustrated.

  10. An iterative ensemble Kalman filter for reservoir engineering applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krymskaya, M.V.; Hanea, R.G.; Verlaan, M.

    2009-01-01

    The study has been focused on examining the usage and the applicability of ensemble Kalman filtering techniques to the history matching procedures. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is often applied nowadays to solving such a problem. Meanwhile, traditional EnKF requires assumption of the distributi

  11. Competitive Learning Neural Network Ensemble Weighted by Predicted Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Qiang

    2010-01-01

    Ensemble approaches have been shown to enhance classification by combining the outputs from a set of voting classifiers. Diversity in error patterns among base classifiers promotes ensemble performance. Multi-task learning is an important characteristic for Neural Network classifiers. Introducing a secondary output unit that receives different…

  12. Modality-Driven Classification and Visualization of Ensemble Variance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bensema, Kevin; Gosink, Luke; Obermaier, Harald; Joy, Kenneth I.

    2016-10-01

    Advances in computational power now enable domain scientists to address conceptual and parametric uncertainty by running simulations multiple times in order to sufficiently sample the uncertain input space. While this approach helps address conceptual and parametric uncertainties, the ensemble datasets produced by this technique present a special challenge to visualization researchers as the ensemble dataset records a distribution of possible values for each location in the domain. Contemporary visualization approaches that rely solely on summary statistics (e.g., mean and variance) cannot convey the detailed information encoded in ensemble distributions that are paramount to ensemble analysis; summary statistics provide no information about modality classification and modality persistence. To address this problem, we propose a novel technique that classifies high-variance locations based on the modality of the distribution of ensemble predictions. Additionally, we develop a set of confidence metrics to inform the end-user of the quality of fit between the distribution at a given location and its assigned class. We apply a similar method to time-varying ensembles to illustrate the relationship between peak variance and bimodal or multimodal behavior. These classification schemes enable a deeper understanding of the behavior of the ensemble members by distinguishing between distributions that can be described by a single tendency and distributions which reflect divergent trends in the ensemble.

  13. Effect of lateral boundary perturbations on the breeding method and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter for mesoscale ensemble prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuo Saito

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of lateral boundary perturbations (LBPs on the mesoscale breeding (MBD method and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF as the initial perturbations generators for mesoscale ensemble prediction systems (EPSs was examined. A LBPs method using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA's operational one-week global ensemble prediction was developed and applied to the mesoscale EPS of the Meteorological Research Institute for the World Weather Research Programme, Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project. The amplitude of the LBPs was adjusted based on the ensemble spread statistics considering the difference of the forecast times of the JMA's one-week EPS and the associated breeding/ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF cycles. LBPs in the ensemble forecast increase the ensemble spread and improve the accuracy of the ensemble mean forecast. In the MBD method, if LBPs were introduced in its breeding cycles, the growth rate of the generated bred vectors is increased, and the ensemble spread and the root mean square errors (RMSEs of the ensemble mean are further improved in the ensemble forecast. With LBPs in the breeding cycles, positional correspondences to the meteorological disturbances and the orthogonality of the bred vectors are improved. Brier Skill Scores (BSSs also showed a remarkable effect of LBPs in the breeding cycles. LBPs showed a similar effect with the LETKF. If LBPs were introduced in the EnKF data assimilation cycles, the ensemble spread, ensemble mean accuracy, and BSSs for precipitation were improved, although the relative advantage of LETKF as the initial perturbations generator against MDB was not necessarily clear. LBPs in the EnKF cycles contribute not to the orthogonalisation but to prevent the underestimation of the forecast error near the lateral boundary.The accuracy of the LETKF analyses was compared with that of the mesoscale 4D-VAR analyses. With LBPs in the LETKF cycles, the RMSEs of the

  14. Data assimilation the ensemble Kalman filter

    CERN Document Server

    Evensen, Geir

    2007-01-01

    Data Assimilation comprehensively covers data assimilation and inverse methods, including both traditional state estimation and parameter estimation. This text and reference focuses on various popular data assimilation methods, such as weak and strong constraint variational methods and ensemble filters and smoothers. It is demonstrated how the different methods can be derived from a common theoretical basis, as well as how they differ and/or are related to each other, and which properties characterize them, using several examples. Rather than emphasize a particular discipline such as oceanography or meteorology, it presents the mathematical framework and derivations in a way which is common for any discipline where dynamics is merged with measurements. The mathematics level is modest, although it requires knowledge of basic spatial statistics, Bayesian statistics, and calculus of variations. Readers will also appreciate the introduction to the mathematical methods used and detailed derivations, which should b...

  15. Predicting protein dynamics from structural ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Copperman, J

    2015-01-01

    The biological properties of proteins are uniquely determined by their structure and dynamics. A protein in solution populates a structural ensemble of metastable configurations around the global fold. From overall rotation to local fluctuations, the dynamics of proteins can cover several orders of magnitude in time scales. We propose a simulation-free coarse-grained approach which utilizes knowledge of the important metastable folded states of the protein to predict the protein dynamics. This approach is based upon the Langevin Equation for Protein Dynamics (LE4PD), a Langevin formalism in the coordinates of the protein backbone. The linear modes of this Langevin formalism organize the fluctuations of the protein, so that more extended dynamical cooperativity relates to increasing energy barriers to mode diffusion. The accuracy of the LE4PD is verified by analyzing the predicted dynamics across a set of seven different proteins for which both relaxation data and NMR solution structures are available. Using e...

  16. China’s First Modern Dance Ensemble

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1992-01-01

    After four years’hardwork by both Chineseand foreign artiststhe Guangdong ExperimentalModern Dance Ensemble,thefirst of its kind in China,wasestablished on June 6,1992,in the Friendship Theater ofGuangzhou.Ms、Yang Meiqi,a famous Chinese folk danceeducator,was chosen as headand Mr.Willy Tsao,a famousyoung Hongkong dancer,as artisticdirector.China’s Central TV Stationreported the news.Recommended by Ms.ChiangChing,a Chinese-American dancer,Yang Meiqi went to Durham,NorthCarolina,in the United States in thesummer of 1986.to attend the Amer-ican Dance Festival.The moderndances put on during the festivalfascinated her with their universal“language,”flexible movement,cho-reography and scientific training.“Isn’t this just What China’s dance

  17. ARM Cloud Retrieval Ensemble Data Set (ACRED)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, C; Xie, S; Klein, SA; McCoy, R; Comstock, JM; Delanoë, J; Deng, M; Dunn, M; Hogan, RJ; Jensen, MP; Mace, GG; McFarlane, SA; O’Connor, EJ; Protat, A; Shupe, MD; Turner, D; Wang, Z

    2011-09-12

    This document describes a new Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data set, the ARM Cloud Retrieval Ensemble Data Set (ACRED), which is created by assembling nine existing ground-based cloud retrievals of ARM measurements from different cloud retrieval algorithms. The current version of ACRED includes an hourly average of nine ground-based retrievals with vertical resolution of 45 m for 512 layers. The techniques used for the nine cloud retrievals are briefly described in this document. This document also outlines the ACRED data availability, variables, and the nine retrieval products. Technical details about the generation of ACRED, such as the methods used for time average and vertical re-grid, are also provided.

  18. Statistical comparison of properties of simulated and observed cumulus clouds in the vicinity of Houston during the Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study (GoMACCS)

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang, Hongli; Feingold, Graham; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Lu, Miao-Ling; Chuang, Patrick Y.; Flagan, Richard C.; Seinfeld, John H.

    2008-01-01

    Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, D13205 The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009304. We present statistical comparisons of properties of clouds generated by Large Eddy Simulations (LES) with aircraft observations of nonprecipitating, warm cumulus clouds made in the vicinity of Houston, TX during the Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study (GoMACCS), carried out in the summer of 2006. Aircraft data wer...

  19. Research Resources: Comparative MicroRNA Profiles in Human Corona Radiata Cells and Cumulus Oophorus Cells Detected by Next-Generation Small RNA Sequencing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuan-Wei; Liu, Yu-Sheng; Ma, Chun-Hong

    2014-01-01

    During folliculogenesis, cumulus cells surrounding the oocyte differentiate into corona radiata cells (CRCs) and cumulus oophorus cells (COCs), which are involved in gonadal steroidogenesis and the development of germ cells. Several studies suggested that microRNAs (miRNAs) play an important regulatory role at the post-transcriptional level in cumulus cells. However, comparative miRNA profiles and associated processes in human CRCs and COCs have not been reported before. In this study, miRNA profiles were obtained from CRCs and COCs using next generation sequencing in women undergoing controlled ovarian stimulation for IVF. A total of 785 and 799 annotated miRNAs were identified in CRCs and COCs, while high expression levels of six novel miRNAs were detected both in CRCs and in COCs. In addition, different expression patterns in CRCs and COCs were detected in 72 annotated miRNAs. To confirm the miRNA profile in COCs and CRCs, quantitative real-time PCR was used to validate the expression of annotated miRNAs, differentially expressed miRNAs, and novel miRNAs. The miRNAs in the let-7 family were found to be involved in the regulation of a broad range of biological processes in both cumulus cell populations, which was accompanied by a large amount of miRNA editing. Bioinformatics analysis showed that amino acid and energy metabolism were targeted significantly by miRNAs that were differentially expressed between CRCs and COCs. Our work extends the current knowledge of the regulatory role of miRNAs and their targeted pathways in folliculogenesis, and provides novel candidates for molecular biomarkers in the research of female infertility. PMID:25188034

  20. Oocyte polarized light microscopy, assay of specific follicular fluid metabolites, and gene expression in cumulus cells as different approaches to predict fertilization efficiency after ICSI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revelli, Alberto; Canosa, Stefano; Bergandi, Loredana; Skorokhod, Oleksii A; Biasoni, Valentina; Carosso, Andrea; Bertagna, Angela; Maule, Milena; Aldieri, Elisabetta; D'Eufemia, Maria Diletta; Evangelista, Francesca; Colacurci, Nicola; Benedetto, Chiara

    2017-06-23

    The complex relationship between oocyte morphology, specific follicular fluid metabolites, gene expression in cumulus granulosa cells, and oocyte competence toward fertilization and embryo development still needs further clarification. Forty-six oocytes retrieved from the largest pre-ovulatory follicle of patients undergoing intra-cytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) were considered assessing: (a) oocyte morphological characteristics at polarized light microscopy (PLM), (b) specific follicular fluid (FF) metabolites previously suggested to influence oocyte competence (AMH, markers of redox status and of cytotoxicity), (c) transcription of AMH and AMH type II receptor genes in cumulus cells. Data were analyzed using mono-parametric tests and multivariable logistic analysis in order to correlate morphological and biochemical data with fertilization. Comparing normally fertilized oocytes (n = 29, F group) with unfertilized (n = 17, nF group) we observed that: (a) the meiotic spindle area and major axis were significantly higher in nF group and in fertilized oocytes undergoing an early embryo development arrest; (b) AMH level in FF was comparable in F and nF groups; (c) the FF of nF group contained significantly higher levels of cytotoxicity (lactate dehydrogenase) and oxidative stress (Cu,Zn-superoxide dismutase, catalase, 4-hydroxynonenal-protein conjugates) markers; (d) cumulus cells of nF group showed significantly higher AMH receptor type II gene expression. Taken together, these observations suggest that an excessive cytotoxicity level can alter AMH signal transduction within cumulus cells, in turn leading to partial inhibition of aromatase activity, altered cytoplasmic maturation and increased oxidative stress, factors able to impair oocyte fertilization competence and embryo growth.

  1. Research resources: comparative microRNA profiles in human corona radiata cells and cumulus oophorus cells detected by next-generation small RNA sequencing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian-Hong Tong

    Full Text Available During folliculogenesis, cumulus cells surrounding the oocyte differentiate into corona radiata cells (CRCs and cumulus oophorus cells (COCs, which are involved in gonadal steroidogenesis and the development of germ cells. Several studies suggested that microRNAs (miRNAs play an important regulatory role at the post-transcriptional level in cumulus cells. However, comparative miRNA profiles and associated processes in human CRCs and COCs have not been reported before. In this study, miRNA profiles were obtained from CRCs and COCs using next generation sequencing in women undergoing controlled ovarian stimulation for IVF. A total of 785 and 799 annotated miRNAs were identified in CRCs and COCs, while high expression levels of six novel miRNAs were detected both in CRCs and in COCs. In addition, different expression patterns in CRCs and COCs were detected in 72 annotated miRNAs. To confirm the miRNA profile in COCs and CRCs, quantitative real-time PCR was used to validate the expression of annotated miRNAs, differentially expressed miRNAs, and novel miRNAs. The miRNAs in the let-7 family were found to be involved in the regulation of a broad range of biological processes in both cumulus cell populations, which was accompanied by a large amount of miRNA editing. Bioinformatics analysis showed that amino acid and energy metabolism were targeted significantly by miRNAs that were differentially expressed between CRCs and COCs. Our work extends the current knowledge of the regulatory role of miRNAs and their targeted pathways in folliculogenesis, and provides novel candidates for molecular biomarkers in the research of female infertility.

  2. An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. AghaKouchak

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity. HBV-Ensemble was administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of uncertainty in hydrological modeling.

  3. Ensemble inequivalence: Landau theory and the ABC model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, O.; Mukamel, D.

    2012-12-01

    It is well known that systems with long-range interactions may exhibit different phase diagrams when studied within two different ensembles. In many of the previously studied examples of ensemble inequivalence, the phase diagrams differ only when the transition in one of the ensembles is first order. By contrast, in a recent study of a generalized ABC model, the canonical and grand-canonical ensembles of the model were shown to differ even when they both exhibit a continuous transition. Here we show that the order of the transition where ensemble inequivalence may occur is related to the symmetry properties of the order parameter associated with the transition. This is done by analyzing the Landau expansion of a generic model with long-range interactions. The conclusions drawn from the generic analysis are demonstrated for the ABC model by explicit calculation of its Landau expansion.

  4. Excitations and benchmark ensemble density functional theory for two electrons

    CERN Document Server

    Pribram-Jones, Aurora; Trail, John R; Burke, Kieron; Needs, Richard J; Ullrich, Carsten A

    2014-01-01

    A new method for extracting ensemble Kohn-Sham potentials from accurate excited state densities is applied to a variety of two electron systems, exploring the behavior of exact ensemble density functional theory. The issue of separating the Hartree energy and the choice of degenerate eigenstates is explored. A new approximation, spin eigenstate Hartree-exchange (SEHX), is derived. Exact conditions that are proven include the signs of the correlation energy components, the virial theorem for both exchange and correlation, and the asymptotic behavior of the potential for small weights of the excited states. Many energy components are given as a function of the weights for two electrons in a one-dimensional flat box, in a box with a large barrier to create charge transfer excitations, in a three-dimensional harmonic well (Hooke's atom), and for the He atom singlet-triplet ensemble, singlet-triplet-singlet ensemble, and triplet bi-ensemble.

  5. Excitations and benchmark ensemble density functional theory for two electrons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pribram-Jones, Aurora; Burke, Kieron [Department of Chemistry, University of California-Irvine, Irvine, California 92697 (United States); Yang, Zeng-hui; Ullrich, Carsten A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211 (United States); Trail, John R.; Needs, Richard J. [Theory of Condensed Matter Group, Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0HE (United Kingdom)

    2014-05-14

    A new method for extracting ensemble Kohn-Sham potentials from accurate excited state densities is applied to a variety of two-electron systems, exploring the behavior of exact ensemble density functional theory. The issue of separating the Hartree energy and the choice of degenerate eigenstates is explored. A new approximation, spin eigenstate Hartree-exchange, is derived. Exact conditions that are proven include the signs of the correlation energy components and the asymptotic behavior of the potential for small weights of the excited states. Many energy components are given as a function of the weights for two electrons in a one-dimensional flat box, in a box with a large barrier to create charge transfer excitations, in a three-dimensional harmonic well (Hooke's atom), and for the He atom singlet-triplet ensemble, singlet-triplet-singlet ensemble, and triplet bi-ensemble.

  6. Adaptive calibration of (u,v)‐wind ensemble forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    Ensemble forecasts of (u,v)‐wind are of crucial importance for a number of decision‐making problems related to e.g. air traffic control, ship routeing and energy management. The skill of these ensemble forecasts as generated by NWP‐based models can be maximised by correcting for their lack...... of sufficient reliability. The original framework introduced here allows for an adaptive bivariate calibration of these ensemble forecasts. The originality of this methodology lies in the fact that calibrated ensembles still consist of a set of (space–time) trajectories, after translation and dilation...... on the adaptive calibration of ECMWF ensemble forecasts of (u,v)‐wind at 10 m above ground level over Europe over a three‐year period between December 2006 and December 2009. Substantial improvements in (bivariate) reliability and in various deterministic/probabilistic scores are observed. Finally, the maps...

  7. Induced Ginibre ensemble of random matrices and quantum operations

    CERN Document Server

    Fischmann, J; Khoruzhenko, B A; Sommers, H -J; Zyczkowski, K

    2011-01-01

    A generalisation of the Ginibre ensemble of non-Hermitian random square matrices is introduced. The corresponding probability measure is induced by the ensemble of rectangular Gaussian matrices via a quadratisation procedure. We derive the joint probability density of eigenvalues for such induced Ginibre ensemble and study various spectral correlation functions for complex and real matrices, and analyse universal behaviour in the limit of large dimensions. In this limit the eigenvalues of the induced Ginibre ensemble cover uniformly a ring in the complex plane. The real induced Ginibre ensemble is shown to be useful to describe statistical properties of evolution operators associated with random quantum operations, for which the dimensions of the input state and the output state do differ.

  8. Discrete post-processing of total cloud cover ensemble forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemri, Stephan; Haiden, Thomas; Pappenberger, Florian

    2017-04-01

    This contribution presents an approach to post-process ensemble forecasts for the discrete and bounded weather variable of total cloud cover. Two methods for discrete statistical post-processing of ensemble predictions are tested. The first approach is based on multinomial logistic regression, the second involves a proportional odds logistic regression model. Applying them to total cloud cover raw ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts improves forecast skill significantly. Based on station-wise post-processing of raw ensemble total cloud cover forecasts for a global set of 3330 stations over the period from 2007 to early 2014, the more parsimonious proportional odds logistic regression model proved to slightly outperform the multinomial logistic regression model. Reference Hemri, S., Haiden, T., & Pappenberger, F. (2016). Discrete post-processing of total cloud cover ensemble forecasts. Monthly Weather Review 144, 2565-2577.

  9. Emergence of overlap in ensembles of spatial multiplexes and statistical mechanics of spatial interacting networks ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Halu, Arda; Bianconi, Ginestra

    2013-01-01

    Spatial networks range from the brain networks, to transportation networks and infrastructures. Recently interacting and multiplex networks are attracting great attention because their dynamics and robustness cannot be understood without treating at the same time several networks. Here we present maximal entropy ensembles of spatial multiplex and spatial interacting networks that can be used in order to model spatial multilayer network structures and to build null models of real datasets. We show that spatial multiplex naturally develop a significant overlap of the links, a noticeable property of many multiplexes that can affect significantly the dynamics taking place on them. Additionally, we characterize ensembles of spatial interacting networks and we analyse the structure of interacting airport and railway networks in India, showing the effect of space in determining the link probability.

  10. Ensemble Bayesian forecasting system Part I: Theory and algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herr, Henry D.; Krzysztofowicz, Roman

    2015-05-01

    The ensemble Bayesian forecasting system (EBFS), whose theory was published in 2001, is developed for the purpose of quantifying the total uncertainty about a discrete-time, continuous-state, non-stationary stochastic process such as a time series of stages, discharges, or volumes at a river gauge. The EBFS is built of three components: an input ensemble forecaster (IEF), which simulates the uncertainty associated with random inputs; a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity), which simulates physical processes within a river basin; and a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP), which simulates the hydrologic uncertainty (an aggregate of all uncertainties except input). It works as a Monte Carlo simulator: an ensemble of time series of inputs (e.g., precipitation amounts) generated by the IEF is transformed deterministically through a hydrologic model into an ensemble of time series of outputs, which is next transformed stochastically by the HUP into an ensemble of time series of predictands (e.g., river stages). Previous research indicated that in order to attain an acceptable sampling error, the ensemble size must be on the order of hundreds (for probabilistic river stage forecasts and probabilistic flood forecasts) or even thousands (for probabilistic stage transition forecasts). The computing time needed to run the hydrologic model this many times renders the straightforward simulations operationally infeasible. This motivates the development of the ensemble Bayesian forecasting system with randomization (EBFSR), which takes full advantage of the analytic meta-Gaussian HUP and generates multiple ensemble members after each run of the hydrologic model; this auxiliary randomization reduces the required size of the meteorological input ensemble and makes it operationally feasible to generate a Bayesian ensemble forecast of large size. Such a forecast quantifies the total uncertainty, is well calibrated against the prior (climatic) distribution of

  11. Robust Ensemble Filtering and Its Relation to Covariance Inflation in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

    KAUST Repository

    Luo, Xiaodong

    2011-12-01

    A robust ensemble filtering scheme based on the H∞ filtering theory is proposed. The optimal H∞ filter is derived by minimizing the supremum (or maximum) of a predefined cost function, a criterion different from the minimum variance used in the Kalman filter. By design, the H∞ filter is more robust than the Kalman filter, in the sense that the estimation error in the H∞ filter in general has a finite growth rate with respect to the uncertainties in assimilation, except for a special case that corresponds to the Kalman filter. The original form of the H∞ filter contains global constraints in time, which may be inconvenient for sequential data assimilation problems. Therefore a variant is introduced that solves some time-local constraints instead, and hence it is called the time-local H∞ filter (TLHF). By analogy to the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the concept of ensemble time-local H∞ filter (EnTLHF) is also proposed. The general form of the EnTLHF is outlined, and some of its special cases are discussed. In particular, it is shown that an EnKF with certain covariance inflation is essentially an EnTLHF. In this sense, the EnTLHF provides a general framework for conducting covariance inflation in the EnKF-based methods. Some numerical examples are used to assess the relative robustness of the TLHF–EnTLHF in comparison with the corresponding KF–EnKF method.

  12. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viney, N.R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in

  13. Ensemble Kalman filtering without the intrinsic need for inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bocquet

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The main intrinsic source of error in the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF is sampling error. External sources of error, such as model error or deviations from Gaussianity, depend on the dynamical properties of the model. Sampling errors can lead to instability of the filter which, as a consequence, often requires inflation and localization. The goal of this article is to derive an ensemble Kalman filter which is less sensitive to sampling errors. A prior probability density function conditional on the forecast ensemble is derived using Bayesian principles. Even though this prior is built upon the assumption that the ensemble is Gaussian-distributed, it is different from the Gaussian probability density function defined by the empirical mean and the empirical error covariance matrix of the ensemble, which is implicitly used in traditional EnKFs. This new prior generates a new class of ensemble Kalman filters, called finite-size ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF-N. One deterministic variant, the finite-size ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF-N, is derived. It is tested on the Lorenz '63 and Lorenz '95 models. In this context, ETKF-N is shown to be stable without inflation for ensemble size greater than the model unstable subspace dimension, at the same numerical cost as the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF. One variant of ETKF-N seems to systematically outperform the ETKF with optimally tuned inflation. However it is shown that ETKF-N does not account for all sampling errors, and necessitates localization like any EnKF, whenever the ensemble size is too small. In order to explore the need for inflation in this small ensemble size regime, a local version of the new class of filters is defined (LETKF-N and tested on the Lorenz '95 toy model. Whatever the size of the ensemble, the filter is stable. Its performance without inflation is slightly inferior to that of LETKF with optimally tuned inflation for small interval between updates, and

  14. Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

    2017-06-01

    Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean.type="synopsis">type="main">Plain Language SummaryDecadal predictions aim to predict the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. The ocean memory due to its heat capacity holds big potential skill. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models (incl. atmosphere and ocean) have improved decadal predictions. Ensembles are another important aspect. Applying slightly perturbed predictions to trigger the famous butterfly effect results in an ensemble. Instead of evaluating one prediction, but the

  15. Shallow cumulus convection = Ondiepe cumulus convectie

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neggers, R.

    2002-01-01

    Clouds play an important role in the earth's climate. Firstly, they are important in the radiative energy budget of the global atmosphere. Clouds absorb and reflect ultraviolet solar radiation, and emit infrared radiation depending on their temperature. Secondly, an

  16. In vitro and in vivo studies reveal that hamster oocyte meiotic arrest is maintained only transiently by follicular fluid, but persistently by membrana/cumulus granulosa cell contact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racowsky, C; Baldwin, K V

    1989-08-01

    Studies were carried out with the golden Syrian hamster to investigate the capacity of follicular fluid to maintain oocyte meiotic arrest and to determine the importance of cumulus-membrana granulosa cell contact in the regulation of meiotic status. The follicular fluid studies were conducted by cytological assessment of meiotic stage up to 6 hr after transferring cumulus-free oocytes into antra of explanted "host" follicles in vitro or into follicles of anesthetized animals prior to the gonadotropin surge at proestrus in vivo. The cumulus-membrana granulosa contact studies were undertaken with explanted follicles in which the oocyte-cumulus complex was dislodged from the underlying membrana granulosa, released into the antrum, and subsequently allowed to reestablish contact during 6 hr of incubation within the follicle. The extent of recontact of the dislodged complex with the underlying membrana granulosa was assessed visually at the end of incubation and was classified as close, moderate, or none. These various degrees of contact typically involved the following number of cumulus cells, as determined by serial sectioning of a representative sample of follicles after dislodgement and subsequent incubation: close, 32.7 +/- 1.78; moderate, 9.0 +/- 2.1; and no contact, 0. After 6 hr of incubation either in vitro or in vivo, few transferred oocytes remained at the germinal vesicle (GV) stage (18.8 +/- 8.7 and 17.3 +/- 4.0% GV, respectively). However, time course experiments revealed that meiotic resumption was significantly delayed in transferred oocytes compared with either liberated oocytes, spontaneously maturing oocytes, or follicle-enclosed oocytes induced to mature by luteinizing hormone in vitro (after 4 hr, transferred, 31.3 +/- 6.0% GV; liberated, 0% GV; follicle-enclosed, 0% GV; after 6 hr, 0% transferred oocytes exhibited a GV). In the dislodgement studies, after 6 hr of incubation, 26% of complexes reestablished close contact with the underlying membrana

  17. Influence of FSH and hCG on the resumption of meiosis of bovine oocytes surrounded by cumulus cells connected to membrana granulosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Tol, H T; van Eijk, M J; Mummery, C L; van den Hurk, R; Bevers, M M

    1996-10-01

    Cumulus oocyte complexes (COCs) and cumulus oocyte complexes connected to a piece of the membrane granulosa (COCGs) were isolated from bovine antral follicles with a diameter of 2 to 8 mm. After culture of COCGs without gonadotrophic hormones for 22 hr approximately 50% of the oocytes were still in the germinal vesicle (GV) stage. Histology of the COCGs showed that the pieces of the membrana granulosa were free of thecal cells and parts of the basal membrane. This indicates that the membrana granulosa solely inhibits the progression of meiosis. To investigate the effect of gonadotropins on the resumption of meiosis of oocytes from small and medium sized antral follicles, COCs and COCGs were cultured with or without rec-hFSH or hCG. Addition of 0.05 IU rec-hFSH to the culture medium of COCGs resulted in germinal vesicle breakdown in 97.8% of the oocytes compared to 46% in the control group, and an increase of the diameter of the COCs (479 microns vs. 240 microns in the control group). Addition of 0.05 IU hCG to the culture medium had no effect on nuclear maturation (47.2% GV vs. 48.5% GV in the control group) nor on cumulus expansion (246 microns vs. 240 microns in the control group). RT-PCR on cDNA of the follicular wall, cumulus cells, granulosa cells, COCs, and oocytes revealed that mRNA for FSH receptor was present in all cell types except oocytes. mRNA of the LH receptor was detected exclusively in thecal cells. Nucleotide sequence analysis and alignment of the cloned PCR products showed the presence of two isoforms of the FSH receptor mRNA and two isoforms of the LH receptor mRNA. It is concluded that, in vitro, resumption of meiosis of oocytes, originating from small and medium sized antral follicles and meiotically arrested by the membrana granulosa, is triggered by FSH and not by LH. This is supported by the fact that receptors for FSH, but not for LH, are transcribed in the cumulus and granulosa cells of these follicles.

  18. A new approach for the oocyte genotoxicity assay: adaptation of comet assay on mouse cumulus-oocyte complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greco, F; Perrin, J; Auffan, M; Tassistro, V; Orsière, T; Courbiere, B

    2015-07-01

    Conventional genotoxicity tests are technically difficult to apply to oocytes, and results obtained on somatic cells cannot be extrapolated to gametes. We have previously described a comet assay (original-CA) on denuded mouse oocytes, but, in vivo, oocytes are not isolated from their surrounding follicular cells. Our objective was to develop a comet assay on cumulus-oocyte complexes (COC-CA) for a more physiological approach to study the genotoxicity of environmental factors on oocytes. For COC-CA, whole COC were exposed directly to exogenous agents after ovulation and removal from oviducts. Three conditions were studied: a negative control group, and two positive control groups, one of which was exposed to hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and the other group was incubated with cerium dioxide nanoparticles (CeO2 NPs). With both tests, DNA damage was significant in the presence of both H2O2 and CeO2 NPs compared with the negative control. COC-CA offers an interesting tool for assaying the genotoxicity of environmental agents towards germinal cells. Furthermore, COC-CA is less time-consuming and simplifies the protocol of the original-CA, because COC-CA is easier to perform without the washing-out procedure.

  19. The effect of FF-MAS on porcine cumulus-oocyte complex maturation, fertilization and pronucleus formation in vitro

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Færge, Inger; Strejcek, Frantisek; Laurincik, Jozef

    2006-01-01

    Follicular fluid meiosis-activating sterol (FF-MAS) has been isolated from the follicular fluid (FF) of several species including man. FF-MAS increases the quality of in vitro oocyte maturation, and thus the developmental potential of oocytes exposed to FF-MAS during in vitro maturaion is improved....... The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of FF-MAS on porcien oocyte maturation and pronucleus formation in vitro. Porcine cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs) were isolated from abattoir ovaries and in vitro matured for 48 h in NCSU 37 medium supplemented with 1 mg/1 cysteine, 10 ng....../ml epidermal growth factor and 50µM 2-mercaptoethanol with or without 10% porcine follicular fluid (pFF). For the first 22 h, 1 mM db-cAMP and 10 I.E PMSG/hCG was added. The medium was supplemented with 1 µM, 3 µM, 10 µM, 30 µM or 100 µM FF-MAS dissolved in ethanol. After maturation the COCs were denuded...

  20. Steroidogenesis during in vitro maturation of bovine cumulus oocyte complexes and possible effects of tri-butyltin on granulosa cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoenfelder, M; Schams, D; Einspanier, R

    2003-02-01

    Steroids are known as important factors on the route of oocytes development and cumulus oocyte complexes (COC) as well as follicular granulosa cells (GC) are suggested to be themselves involved in steroidogenesis. The aim of this study was to characterize such a local sex steroidogenic system during in vitro maturation (IVM) of bovine COCs according to the production of estradiol (E), testosterone (T) and progesterone (P). The expression of two steroid-converting key-enzymes was measured in parallel by quantitative RT-PCR. Furthermore, possible effects of the environmental pollutant tri-butyltin (TBT) were elucidated for the first time on bovine COC and GC in vitro concerning that steroidogenic system. During IVM of bovine COCs concentrations of P increased continuously, corresponding with steady-state levels of 3-beta-hydroxy-steroid-dehydrogenase (HSD) transcripts. In contrast, E together with P450 aromatase mRNA (ARO) increased in the first hours of IVM but declining thereafter, whereas T reached almost balanced levels. However, TBT showed only slight effects during IVM of COC. In cultured GC, LH caused highest P- and E-production within 24h and treatment with 50pM TBT induced a significant decrease of E in contrast to 100pM TBT and the control. These results indicate, that (1) COCs were able to modulate their steroidogenic environment in vitro and that (2) TBT may possibly influence or disturb steroidogenesis in the cows reproductive tract shown here for GC.

  1. Sensitivity of a Cumulus Parameterization Scheme to Precipitation Production Representation and Its Impact on a Heavy Rain Event over Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Ji-Young; Hong, Song-You; Sunny Lim, Kyo-Sun; Han, Jongil

    2016-06-01

    The sensitivity of a cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS) to a representation of precipitation production is examined. To do this, the parameter that determines the fraction of cloud condensate converted to precipitation in the simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) convection scheme is modified following the results from a cloud-resolving simulation. While the original conversion parameter is assumed to be constant, the revised parameter includes a temperature dependency above the freezing level, whichleadstolessproductionoffrozenprecipitating condensate with height. The revised CPS has been evaluated for a heavy rainfall event over Korea as well as medium-range forecasts using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs). The inefficient conversion of cloud condensate to convective precipitation at colder temperatures generally leads to a decrease in pre-cipitation, especially in the category of heavy rainfall. The resultant increase of detrained moisture induces moistening and cooling at the top of clouds. A statistical evaluation of the medium-range forecasts with the revised precipitation conversion parameter shows an overall improvement of the forecast skill in precipitation and large-scale fields, indicating importance of more realistic representation of microphysical processes in CPSs.

  2. Entrainment and mixing at the interface of shallow cumulus clouds: Results from a combination of observations and simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabian Hoffmann

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study combines observations, large-eddy simulations (LES, and direct numerical simulations (DNS in order to analyze entrainment and mixing in shallow cumulus clouds at all relevant spatial scales and, additionally, to verify the results by the multiple methods used. The observations are based on three flights of the CARRIBA campaign which are similar to the classical BOMEX case used for LES. Virtual flights in the LES data are used to validate the observational method of line measurements. It is shown that line measurements overrepresent the cloud core, and it is quantified how derived statistics depend on small perturbations of the flight track, which has to be taken in account for the interpretation of airborne observations. A linear relation between fluctuations of temperature and liquid water content has been found in both LES and observations in a good quantitative agreement. However, the constant of proportionality deviates from purely adiabatic estimates, which can be attributed to cloud edge mixing. The cloud edge is compared in detail in observations and LES, which agree qualitatively although the LES cloud edge is smoother due to the model's resolution. The resulting typical amplitudes of the turbulence fields from this comparison are compared with the large-scale forcing model which is used in a series of DNS which study the mixing below the meter scale, which show that LES does not resolve the intermittency of small-scale turbulence.

  3. A modified iterative ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Baoxiong; Bai, Yulong; Wang, Yizhao; Li, Zhe; Ma, Boyang

    2017-08-01

    High nonlinearity is a typical characteristic associated with data assimilation systems. Additionally, iterative ensemble based methods have attracted a large amount of research attention, which has been focused on dealing with nonlinearity problems. To solve the local convergence problem of the iterative ensemble Kalman filter, a modified iterative ensemble Kalman filter algorithm was put forward, which was based on a global convergence strategy from the perspective of a Gauss-Newton iteration. Through self-adaption, the step factor was adjusted to enable every iteration to approach expected values during the process of the data assimilation. A sensitivity experiment was carried out in a low dimensional Lorenz-63 chaotic system, as well as a Lorenz-96 model. The new method was tested via ensemble size, observation variance, and inflation factor changes, along with other aspects. Meanwhile, comparative research was conducted with both a traditional ensemble Kalman filter and an iterative ensemble Kalman filter. The results showed that the modified iterative ensemble Kalman filter algorithm was a data assimilation method that was able to effectively estimate a strongly nonlinear system state.

  4. Progressive freezing of interacting spins in isolated finite magnetic ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Kakoli; Dupuis, Veronique; Le-Roy, Damien; Deb, Pritam

    2017-02-01

    Self-organization of magnetic nanoparticles into secondary nanostructures provides an innovative way for designing functional nanomaterials with novel properties, different from the constituent primary nanoparticles as well as their bulk counterparts. Collective magnetic properties of such complex closed packing of magnetic nanoparticles makes them more appealing than the individual magnetic nanoparticles in many technological applications. This work reports the collective magnetic behaviour of magnetic ensembles comprising of single domain Fe3O4 nanoparticles. The present work reveals that the ensemble formation is based on the re-orientation and attachment of the nanoparticles in an iso-oriented fashion at the mesoscale regime. Comprehensive dc magnetic measurements show the prevalence of strong interparticle interactions in the ensembles. Due to the close range organization of primary Fe3O4 nanoparticles in the ensemble, the spins of the individual nanoparticles interact through dipolar interactions as realized from remnant magnetization measurements. Signature of super spin glass like behaviour in the ensembles is observed in the memory studies carried out in field cooled conditions. Progressive freezing of spins in the ensembles is corroborated from the Vogel-Fulcher fit of the susceptibility data. Dynamic scaling of relaxation reasserted slow spin dynamics substantiating cluster spin glass like behaviour in the ensembles.

  5. Soil texture reclassification by an ensemble model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cisty, Milan; Hlavcova, Kamila

    2015-04-01

    a prerequisite for solving some subsequent task, this bias is propagated to the subsequent modelling or other work. Therefore, for the sake of achieving more general and precise outputs while solving such tasks, the authors of the present paper are proposing a hybrid approach, which has the potential for obtaining improved results. Although the authors continue recommending the use of the mentioned parametric PSD models in the proposed methodology, the final prediction is made by an ensemble machine learning algorithm based on regression trees, the so-called Random Forest algorithm, which is built on top of the outputs of such models, which serves as an ensemble members. An improvement in precision was proved, and it is documented in the paper that the ensemble model worked better than any of its constituents. References Nemes, A., Wosten, J.H.M., Lilly, A., Voshaar, J.H.O.: Evaluation of different procedures to interpolate particle-size distributions to achieve compatibility within soil databases. Geoderma 90, 187- 202 (1999) Hwang, S.: Effect of texture on the performance of soil particle-size distribution models. Geoderma 123, 363-371 (2004) Botula, Y.D., Cornelis, W.M., Baert, G., Mafuka, P., Van Ranst, E.: Particle size distribution models for soils of the humid tropics. J Soils Sediments. 13, 686-698 (2013)

  6. Fibroblast Growth Factors and Epidermal Growth Factor Cooperate with Oocyte-Derived Members of the TGFbeta Superfamily to Regulate Spry2 mRNA Levels in Mouse Cumulus Cells1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiura, Koji; Su, You-Qiang; Li, Qinglei; Wigglesworth, Karen; Matzuk, Martin M.; Eppig, John J.

    2009-01-01

    Mouse oocytes produce members of the transforming growth factor beta (TGFbeta) superfamily, including bone morphogenetic protein 15 (BMP15) and growth differentiation factor 9 (GDF9), as well as fibroblast growth factors (FGFs). These growth factors cooperate to regulate cumulus cell function. To identify potential mechanisms involved in these interactions, the ability of fully grown oocytes to regulate expression of BMP or FGF antagonists in cumulus cells was examined. Oocytes promoted cumulus cell expression of transcripts encoding antagonists to TGFbeta superfamily members, including Grem2, Htra1, Htra3, and Nog mRNAs. In contrast, oocytes suppressed cumulus cell expression of Spry2 mRNA, which encodes a regulator of receptor tyrosine kinase signals, such as FGF and epidermal growth factor (EGF) receptor signals. The regulation of Spry2 mRNA levels in cumulus cells was studied further as a model for analysis of potential mechanisms for cooperativity of FGF/EGF signaling with oocyte-derived members of the TGFbeta superfamily. Oocytes suppressed basal and FGF-stimulated Spry2 mRNA levels in cumulus cells but promoted EGF-stimulated levels. Furthermore, recombinant TGFbeta superfamily proteins, including BMP15 and GDF9, mimicked these effects of oocytes. Elevated expression of Spry2 mRNA in cumulus and mural granulosa cells correlated with human chorionic gonadotropin-induced expression of mRNAs encoding EGF-like peptides. Therefore, oocyte-derived members of the TGFbeta superfamily suppress FGF-stimulated Spry2 mRNA levels before the luteinizing hormone surge but promote Spry2 mRNA levels stimulated by EGF receptor-mediated signals after the surge. PMID:19553596

  7. miR-483-5p and miR-486-5p are down-regulated in cumulus cells of metaphase II oocytes from women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Lin; Liu, Shan; Zhao, Wanqiu; Shi, Juanzi

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the expression of microRNAs (miRNAs) in cumulus cells from polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and non-PCOS women. In the present study, miRNA expression profiles of the cumulus cell samples were determined by miRNA microarrays. Quantification of selected miRNAs and predicted target genes was performed using quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR). The results showed that miR-483-5p and miR-486-5p are significantly decreased in cumulus cells of PCOS patients PCOS (fold change >2, false discovery rate <0.001). qRT-PCR found that four predicted genes, SOCS3, SRF, PTEN and FOXO1, were significantly increased in PCOS cumulus cells (all P < 0.001), and IGF2 (host gene of miR-483-5p) was significantly decreased in PCOS cumulus cells (P < 0.001). These results indicated that miR-483-5p might play an important role in reducing insulin resistance, and that miR-486-5p might promote cumulus cell proliferation through activation of PI3K/Akt. The findings from this study provided new insights into the complex molecular mechanisms involved in PCOS by revealing pathways possibly regulated by miRNAs. The differences in miRNAs (miR-483-5p, miR-486-5p) and their target gene expression in cumulus cells may provide clues for future research and help to explain aberrant follicular development and subfertility in women with PCOS.

  8. Ensemble Deep Learning for Biomedical Time Series Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin-peng Jin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble learning has been proved to improve the generalization ability effectively in both theory and practice. In this paper, we briefly outline the current status of research on it first. Then, a new deep neural network-based ensemble method that integrates filtering views, local views, distorted views, explicit training, implicit training, subview prediction, and Simple Average is proposed for biomedical time series classification. Finally, we validate its effectiveness on the Chinese Cardiovascular Disease Database containing a large number of electrocardiogram recordings. The experimental results show that the proposed method has certain advantages compared to some well-known ensemble methods, such as Bagging and AdaBoost.

  9. Ensemble Deep Learning for Biomedical Time Series Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Lin-Peng; Dong, Jun

    2016-01-01

    Ensemble learning has been proved to improve the generalization ability effectively in both theory and practice. In this paper, we briefly outline the current status of research on it first. Then, a new deep neural network-based ensemble method that integrates filtering views, local views, distorted views, explicit training, implicit training, subview prediction, and Simple Average is proposed for biomedical time series classification. Finally, we validate its effectiveness on the Chinese Cardiovascular Disease Database containing a large number of electrocardiogram recordings. The experimental results show that the proposed method has certain advantages compared to some well-known ensemble methods, such as Bagging and AdaBoost.

  10. Ensemble Deep Learning for Biomedical Time Series Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Ensemble learning has been proved to improve the generalization ability effectively in both theory and practice. In this paper, we briefly outline the current status of research on it first. Then, a new deep neural network-based ensemble method that integrates filtering views, local views, distorted views, explicit training, implicit training, subview prediction, and Simple Average is proposed for biomedical time series classification. Finally, we validate its effectiveness on the Chinese Cardiovascular Disease Database containing a large number of electrocardiogram recordings. The experimental results show that the proposed method has certain advantages compared to some well-known ensemble methods, such as Bagging and AdaBoost.

  11. An Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Based on Ensemble Technique

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Yan; HUANG Cong-ming

    2006-01-01

    An improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm based on ensemble technique is presented. The algorithm combines some previous best positions (pbest) of the particles to get an ensemble position (Epbest), which is used to replace the global best position (gbest). It is compared with the standard PSO algorithm invented by Kennedy and Eberhart and some improved PSO algorithms based on three different benchmark functions. The simulation results show that the improved PSO based on ensemble technique can get better solutions than the standard PSO and some other improved algorithms under all test cases.

  12. Deterministic entanglement of Rydberg ensembles by engineered dissipation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dasari, Durga; Mølmer, Klaus

    2014-01-01

    We propose a scheme that employs dissipation to deterministically generate entanglement in an ensemble of strongly interacting Rydberg atoms. With a combination of microwave driving between different Rydberg levels and a resonant laser coupling to a short lived atomic state, the ensemble can...... be driven towards a dark steady state that entangles all atoms. The long-range resonant dipole-dipole interaction between different Rydberg states extends the entanglement beyond the van der Walls interaction range with perspectives for entangling large and distant ensembles....

  13. Determinación experimental y de primeros principios del tensor gradiente de campo eléctrico (GCE) en el semiconductor α-Al2O3(Ta) (Zafiro): estudio de propiedades estructurales y electrónicas

    OpenAIRE

    Muñoz, Emiliano Luis

    2006-01-01

    El objetivo de este trabajo es determinar la magnitud, simetría y orientación del tensor GCE por medio de la técnica TDPAC en monocristales y así poder verificar las predicciones de los cálculos realizados con el método FP-LAPW basado en la Teoría de la Funcional Densidad (DFT), estudiar la validez de los distintas aproximaciones realizadas dentro de la DFT y obtener propiedades estructurales y electrónicas del sistema impureza-huésped. A diferencia del estudio en muestras policristalinas, el...

  14. Large margin classifier-based ensemble tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuru; Liu, Qiaoyuan; Yin, Minghao; Wang, ShengSheng

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, many studies consider visual tracking as a two-class classification problem. The key problem is to construct a classifier with sufficient accuracy in distinguishing the target from its background and sufficient generalize ability in handling new frames. However, the variable tracking conditions challenges the existing methods. The difficulty mainly comes from the confused boundary between the foreground and background. This paper handles this difficulty by generalizing the classifier's learning step. By introducing the distribution data of samples, the classifier learns more essential characteristics in discriminating the two classes. Specifically, the samples are represented in a multiscale visual model. For features with different scales, several large margin distribution machine (LDMs) with adaptive kernels are combined in a Baysian way as a strong classifier. Where, in order to improve the accuracy and generalization ability, not only the margin distance but also the sample distribution is optimized in the learning step. Comprehensive experiments are performed on several challenging video sequences, through parameter analysis and field comparison, the proposed LDM combined ensemble tracker is demonstrated to perform with sufficient accuracy and generalize ability in handling various typical tracking difficulties.

  15. Model error estimation in ensemble data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Gillijns

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A new methodology is proposed to estimate and account for systematic model error in linear filtering as well as in nonlinear ensemble based filtering. Our results extend the work of Dee and Todling (2000 on constant bias errors to time-varying model errors. In contrast to existing methodologies, the new filter can also deal with the case where no dynamical model for the systematic error is available. In the latter case, the applicability is limited by a matrix rank condition which has to be satisfied in order for the filter to exist. The performance of the filter developed in this paper is limited by the availability and the accuracy of observations and by the variance of the stochastic model error component. The effect of these aspects on the estimation accuracy is investigated in several numerical experiments using the Lorenz (1996 model. Experimental results indicate that the availability of a dynamical model for the systematic error significantly reduces the variance of the model error estimates, but has only minor effect on the estimates of the system state. The filter is able to estimate additive model error of any type, provided that the rank condition is satisfied and that the stochastic errors and measurement errors are significantly smaller than the systematic errors. The results of this study are encouraging. However, it remains to be seen how the filter performs in more realistic applications.

  16. Variety of synchronous regimes in neuronal ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, M. A.; Osipov, G. V.; Suykens, J. A. K.

    2008-09-01

    We consider a Hodgkin-Huxley-type model of oscillatory activity in neurons of the snail Helix pomatia. This model has a distinctive feature: It demonstrates multistability in oscillatory and silent modes that is typical for the thalamocortical neurons. A single neuron cell can demonstrate a variety of oscillatory activity: Regular and chaotic spiking and bursting behavior. We study collective phenomena in small and large arrays of nonidentical cells coupled by models of electrical and chemical synapses. Two single elements coupled by electrical coupling show different types of synchronous behavior, in particular in-phase and antiphase synchronous regimes. In an ensemble of three inhibitory synaptically coupled elements, the phenomenon of sequential synchronous dynamics is observed. We study the synchronization phenomena in the chain of nonidentical neurons at different oscillatory behavior coupled with electrical and chemical synapses. Various regimes of phase synchronization are observed: (i) Synchronous regular and chaotic spiking; (ii) synchronous regular and chaotic bursting; and (iii) synchronous regular and chaotic bursting with different numbers of spikes inside the bursts. We detect and study the effect of collective synchronous burst generation due to the cluster formation and the oscillatory death.

  17. General approaches in ensemble quantum computing

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    V Vimalan; N Chandrakumar

    2008-01-01

    We have developed methodology for NMR quantum computing focusing on enhancing the efficiency of initialization, of logic gate implementation and of readout. Our general strategy involves the application of rotating frame pulse sequences to prepare pseudopure states and to perform logic operations. We demonstrate experimentally our methodology for both homonuclear and heteronuclear spin ensembles. On model two-spin systems, the initialization time of one of our sequences is three-fourths (in the heteronuclear case) or one-fourth (in the homonuclear case), of the typical pulsed free precession sequences, attaining the same initialization efficiency. We have implemented the logical SWAP operation in homonuclear AMX spin systems using selective isotropic mixing, reducing the duration taken to a third compared to the standard re-focused INEPT-type sequence. We introduce the 1D version for readout of the rotating frame SWAP operation, in an attempt to reduce readout time. We further demonstrate the Hadamard mode of 1D SWAP, which offers 2N-fold reduction in experiment time for a system with -working bits, attaining the same sensitivity as the standard 1D version.

  18. Ensemble LUT classification for degraded document enhancement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obafemi-Ajayi, Tayo; Agam, Gady; Frieder, Ophir

    2008-01-01

    The fast evolution of scanning and computing technologies have led to the creation of large collections of scanned paper documents. Examples of such collections include historical collections, legal depositories, medical archives, and business archives. Moreover, in many situations such as legal litigation and security investigations scanned collections are being used to facilitate systematic exploration of the data. It is almost always the case that scanned documents suffer from some form of degradation. Large degradations make documents hard to read and substantially deteriorate the performance of automated document processing systems. Enhancement of degraded document images is normally performed assuming global degradation models. When the degradation is large, global degradation models do not perform well. In contrast, we propose to estimate local degradation models and use them in enhancing degraded document images. Using a semi-automated enhancement system we have labeled a subset of the Frieder diaries collection.1 This labeled subset was then used to train an ensemble classifier. The component classifiers are based on lookup tables (LUT) in conjunction with the approximated nearest neighbor algorithm. The resulting algorithm is highly effcient. Experimental evaluation results are provided using the Frieder diaries collection.1

  19. Group Theory for Embedded Random Matrix Ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Kota, V K B

    2014-01-01

    Embedded random matrix ensembles are generic models for describing statistical properties of finite isolated quantum many-particle systems. For the simplest spinless fermion (or boson) systems with say $m$ fermions (or bosons) in $N$ single particle states and interacting with say $k$-body interactions, we have EGUE($k$) [embedded GUE of $k$-body interactions) with GUE embedding and the embedding algebra is $U(N)$. In this paper, using EGUE($k$) representation for a Hamiltonian that is $k$-body and an independent EGUE($t$) representation for a transition operator that is $t$-body and employing the embedding $U(N)$ algebra, finite-$N$ formulas for moments up to order four are derived, for the first time, for the transition strength densities (transition strengths multiplied by the density of states at the initial and final energies). In the asymptotic limit, these formulas reduce to those derived for the EGOE version and establish that in general bivariate transition strength densities take bivariate Gaussian ...

  20. Emergent order in ensembles of active spinners

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Zuiden, Benjamin C.; Paulose, Jayson; Irvine, William T. M.; Bartolo, Denis; Vitelli, Vincenzo

    Interacting self-propelled particles is proxy to model many living systems from cytoskeletal motors to bird flocks, while also providing a framework to investigate fundamental questions in non equilibrium statistical mechanics. A surge of recent studies have shown that self-propulsion significantly modifies the phase behavior of particles interacting via potential interactions. A prototypical example is the so-called Motility Induced Phase Separation occurring in ensembles of self-propelled hard spheres. In stark contrast, our understanding of active spinning, as opposed to self-propulsion, remains very scarce. Here, we study a system of self-spinning dimers, interacting via soft repulsive forces. Upon varying the density and activity, we observe a range of emergent phases characterized by different degrees of spatiotemporal order in the position and orientation of the dimers. Changes in bulk properties, including crystallization, melting, and freezing, are reflected in the collective motion of the particles. We rationalize our numerical findings theoretically and demonstrate some of these concepts in a active granular experiment.

  1. Ensemble Kalman filtering with residual nudging

    CERN Document Server

    Luo, Xiaodong; 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17130

    2012-01-01

    Covariance inflation and localization are two important techniques that are used to improve the performance of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) by (in effect) adjusting the sample covariances of the estimates in the state space. In this work an additional auxiliary technique, called residual nudging, is proposed to monitor and, if necessary, adjust the residual norms of state estimates in the observation space. In an EnKF with residual nudging, if the residual norm of an analysis is larger than a pre-specified value, then the analysis is replaced by a new one whose residual norm is no larger than a pre-specified value. Otherwise the analysis is considered as a reasonable estimate and no change is made. A rule for choosing the pre-specified value is suggested. Based on this rule, the corresponding new state estimates are explicitly derived in case of linear observations. Numerical experiments in the 40-dimensional Lorenz 96 model show that introducing residual nudging to an EnKF may improve its accuracy and/o...

  2. Orchestrating Distributed Resource Ensembles for Petascale Science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldin, Ilya; Mandal, Anirban; Ruth, Paul; Yufeng, Xin

    2014-04-24

    Distributed, data-intensive computational science applications of interest to DOE scientific com- munities move large amounts of data for experiment data management, distributed analysis steps, remote visualization, and accessing scientific instruments. These applications need to orchestrate ensembles of resources from multiple resource pools and interconnect them with high-capacity multi- layered networks across multiple domains. It is highly desirable that mechanisms are designed that provide this type of resource provisioning capability to a broad class of applications. It is also important to have coherent monitoring capabilities for such complex distributed environments. In this project, we addressed these problems by designing an abstract API, enabled by novel semantic resource descriptions, for provisioning complex and heterogeneous resources from multiple providers using their native provisioning mechanisms and control planes: computational, storage, and multi-layered high-speed network domains. We used an extensible resource representation based on semantic web technologies to afford maximum flexibility to applications in specifying their needs. We evaluated the effectiveness of provisioning using representative data-intensive ap- plications. We also developed mechanisms for providing feedback about resource performance to the application, to enable closed-loop feedback control and dynamic adjustments to resource allo- cations (elasticity). This was enabled through development of a novel persistent query framework that consumes disparate sources of monitoring data, including perfSONAR, and provides scalable distribution of asynchronous notifications.

  3. Quantum metrology with cold atomic ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitchell Morgan W.

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Quantum metrology uses quantum features such as entanglement and squeezing to improve the sensitivity of quantum-limited measurements. Long established as a valuable technique in optical measurements such as gravitational-wave detection, quantum metrology is increasingly being applied to atomic instruments such as matter-wave interferometers, atomic clocks, and atomic magnetometers. Several of these new applications involve dual optical/atomic quantum systems, presenting both new challenges and new opportunities. Here we describe an optical magnetometry system that achieves both shot-noise-limited and projection-noise-limited performance, allowing study of optical magnetometry in a fully-quantum regime [1]. By near-resonant Faraday rotation probing, we demonstrate measurement-based spin squeezing in a magnetically-sensitive atomic ensemble [2-4]. The versatility of this system allows us also to design metrologically-relevant optical nonlinearities, and to perform quantum-noise-limited measurements with interacting photons. As a first interaction-based measurement [5], we implement a non-linear metrology scheme proposed by Boixo et al. with the surprising feature of precision scaling better than the 1/N “Heisenberg limit” [6].

  4. Evaluation of seasonal ensemble forecasts in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tore Sinnes, Svein; Engeland, Kolbjørn; Langsholt, Elin; Roar Sælthun, Nils

    2017-04-01

    Throughout the winter and spring season, seasonal forecasts are used by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) in order to assess the probability for sever floods or for low seasonal runoff volumes. The latter is especially important for hydropower production. The seasonal forecasts are generated by a set of 145 lumped, elevation distributed HBV models distributed all over Norway. The observed weather is used to establish the initial snow cover, soil moisture and groundwater levels in the HBV model. Subsequently, scenarios are created by using time series of observed weather the previous 50 years, creating a total of 50 ensembles. The predictability of this seasonal forecasting system depends therefore on the importance of the initial conditions, and in Norway the seasonal snow cover is especially important. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the seasonal forecasts of flood peaks and seasonal runoff volumes and especially to evaluate of the predictability depends on (i) catchment climatology and (ii) issue dates and lead times. For achieving these aims, evaluation criterions assessing reliability and sharpness were used. The results shows that the predictability is the highest for catchments where the spring runoff is dominated by snow melt. The predictability is the highest for the shortest lead times (up to 1 months ahead).The predictive performance is higher for runoff volumes than for the flood peaks.

  5. A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Thirel

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Ensemble streamflow forecast systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at Météo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of Météo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS. Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm

  6. Infinite ensemble of support vector machines for prediction of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    Many researchers have demonstrated the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to ..... Following section discusses the effect of infinite ensemble approach ..... major problem with artificial intelligence-based modeling approaches is their ...

  7. An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. AghaKouchak

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this model, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation are interconnected. The model includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for not only hydrological processes, but also for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity.

  8. Relation between native ensembles and experimental structures of proteins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Best, R. B.; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; DePristo, M. A.

    2006-01-01

    Data Bank ensembles; moreover, we show that the effects of uncertainties in structure determination are insufficient to explain the results. These results highlight the importance of accounting for native-state protein dynamics in making comparisons with ensemble-averaged experimental data and suggest......Different experimental structures of the same protein or of proteins with high sequence similarity contain many small variations. Here we construct ensembles of "high-sequence similarity Protein Data Bank" (HSP) structures and consider the extent to which such ensembles represent the structural...... heterogeneity of the native state in solution. We find that different NMR measurements probing structure and dynamics of given proteins in solution, including order parameters, scalar couplings, and residual dipolar couplings, are remarkably well reproduced by their respective high-sequence similarity Protein...

  9. Spectroscopic properties of inhomogeneously broadened spin ensembles in a cavity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurucz, Zoltan; Wesenberg, Janus; Mølmer, Klaus

    2011-01-01

    The enhanced collective coupling to weak quantum fields may turn atomic or spin ensembles into an important component in quantum information processing architectures. Inhomogeneous broadening can, however, significantly reduce the coupling and the lifetime of the collective excitation...

  10. Trace formula for an ensemble of bumpy billiards

    CERN Document Server

    Pavloff, N

    1995-01-01

    We study the semiclassical quantization of an ensemble of billiards with a small random shape deformation. We derive a trace formula averaged over shape disorder. The results are illustrated by the study of supershells in rough metal clusters.

  11. Time and ensemble averaging in time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Latka, Miroslaw; Jernajczyk, Wojciech; West, Bruce J

    2010-01-01

    In many applications expectation values are calculated by partitioning a single experimental time series into an ensemble of data segments of equal length. Such single trajectory ensemble (STE) is a counterpart to a multiple trajectory ensemble (MTE) used whenever independent measurements or realizations of a stochastic process are available. The equivalence of STE and MTE for stationary systems was postulated by Wang and Uhlenbeck in their classic paper on Brownian motion (Rev. Mod. Phys. 17, 323 (1945)) but surprisingly has not yet been proved. Using the stationary and ergodic paradigm of statistical physics -- the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) Langevin equation, we revisit Wang and Uhlenbeck's postulate. In particular, we find that the variance of the solution of this equation is different for these two ensembles. While the variance calculated using the MTE quantifies the spreading of independent trajectories originating from the same initial point, the variance for STE measures the spreading of two correlated r...

  12. Phase-selective entrainment of nonlinear oscillator ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zlotnik, Anatoly; Nagao, Raphael; Kiss, István Z.; Li-Shin, Jr.

    2016-03-01

    The ability to organize and finely manipulate the hierarchy and timing of dynamic processes is important for understanding and influencing brain functions, sleep and metabolic cycles, and many other natural phenomena. However, establishing spatiotemporal structures in biological oscillator ensembles is a challenging task that requires controlling large collections of complex nonlinear dynamical units. In this report, we present a method to design entrainment signals that create stable phase patterns in ensembles of heterogeneous nonlinear oscillators without using state feedback information. We demonstrate the approach using experiments with electrochemical reactions on multielectrode arrays, in which we selectively assign ensemble subgroups into spatiotemporal patterns with multiple phase clusters. The experimentally confirmed mechanism elucidates the connection between the phases and natural frequencies of a collection of dynamical elements, the spatial and temporal information that is encoded within this ensemble, and how external signals can be used to retrieve this information.

  13. Ensembles on configuration space classical, quantum, and beyond

    CERN Document Server

    Hall, Michael J W

    2016-01-01

    This book describes a promising approach to problems in the foundations of quantum mechanics, including the measurement problem. The dynamics of ensembles on configuration space is shown here to be a valuable tool for unifying the formalisms of classical and quantum mechanics, for deriving and extending the latter in various ways, and for addressing the quantum measurement problem. A description of physical systems by means of ensembles on configuration space can be introduced at a very fundamental level: the basic building blocks are a configuration space, probabilities, and Hamiltonian equations of motion for the probabilities. The formalism can describe both classical and quantum systems, and their thermodynamics, with the main difference being the choice of ensemble Hamiltonian. Furthermore, there is a natural way of introducing ensemble Hamiltonians that describe the evolution of hybrid systems; i.e., interacting systems that have distinct classical and quantum sectors, allowing for consistent descriptio...

  14. Ensemble vs. time averages in financial time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seemann, Lars; Hua, Jia-Chen; McCauley, Joseph L.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

    2012-12-01

    Empirical analysis of financial time series suggests that the underlying stochastic dynamics are not only non-stationary, but also exhibit non-stationary increments. However, financial time series are commonly analyzed using the sliding interval technique that assumes stationary increments. We propose an alternative approach that is based on an ensemble over trading days. To determine the effects of time averaging techniques on analysis outcomes, we create an intraday activity model that exhibits periodic variable diffusion dynamics and we assess the model data using both ensemble and time averaging techniques. We find that ensemble averaging techniques detect the underlying dynamics correctly, whereas sliding intervals approaches fail. As many traded assets exhibit characteristic intraday volatility patterns, our work implies that ensemble averages approaches will yield new insight into the study of financial markets’ dynamics.

  15. Quantum Ensemble Classification: A Sampling-Based Learning Control Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chunlin; Dong, Daoyi; Qi, Bo; Petersen, Ian R; Rabitz, Herschel

    2017-06-01

    Quantum ensemble classification (QEC) has significant applications in discrimination of atoms (or molecules), separation of isotopes, and quantum information extraction. However, quantum mechanics forbids deterministic discrimination among nonorthogonal states. The classification of inhomogeneous quantum ensembles is very challenging, since there exist variations in the parameters characterizing the members within different classes. In this paper, we recast QEC as a supervised quantum learning problem. A systematic classification methodology is presented by using a sampling-based learning control (SLC) approach for quantum discrimination. The classification task is accomplished via simultaneously steering members belonging to different classes to their corresponding target states (e.g., mutually orthogonal states). First, a new discrimination method is proposed for two similar quantum systems. Then, an SLC method is presented for QEC. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for the binary classification of two-level quantum ensembles and the multiclass classification of multilevel quantum ensembles.

  16. An automated approach to network features of protein structure ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharyya, Moitrayee; Bhat, Chanda R; Vishveshwara, Saraswathi

    2013-10-01

    Network theory applied to protein structures provides insights into numerous problems of biological relevance. The explosion in structural data available from PDB and simulations establishes a need to introduce a standalone-efficient program that assembles network concepts/parameters under one hood in an automated manner. Herein, we discuss the development/application of an exhaustive, user-friendly, standalone program package named PSN-Ensemble, which can handle structural ensembles generated through molecular dynamics (MD) simulation/NMR studies or from multiple X-ray structures. The novelty in network construction lies in the explicit consideration of side-chain interactions among amino acids. The program evaluates network parameters dealing with topological organization and long-range allosteric communication. The introduction of a flexible weighing scheme in terms of residue pairwise cross-correlation/interaction energy in PSN-Ensemble brings in dynamical/chemical knowledge into the network representation. Also, the results are mapped on a graphical display of the structure, allowing an easy access of network analysis to a general biological community. The potential of PSN-Ensemble toward examining structural ensemble is exemplified using MD trajectories of an ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme (UbcH5b). Furthermore, insights derived from network parameters evaluated using PSN-Ensemble for single-static structures of active/inactive states of β2-adrenergic receptor and the ternary tRNA complexes of tyrosyl tRNA synthetases (from organisms across kingdoms) are discussed. PSN-Ensemble is freely available from http://vishgraph.mbu.iisc.ernet.in/PSN-Ensemble/psn_index.html.

  17. Clustering Categorical Data:A Cluster Ensemble Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    He Zengyou(何增友); Xu Xiaofei; Deng Shengchun

    2003-01-01

    Clustering categorical data, an integral part of data mining,has attracted much attention recently. In this paper, the authors formally define the categorical data clustering problem as an optimization problem from the viewpoint of cluster ensemble, and apply cluster ensemble approach for clustering categorical data. Experimental results on real datasets show that better clustering accuracy can be obtained by comparing with existing categorical data clustering algorithms.

  18. Ensemble control of linear systems with parameter uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kou, Kit Ian; Liu, Yang; Zhang, Dandan; Tu, Yanshuai

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, we study the optimal control problem for a class of four-dimensional linear systems based on quaternionic and Fourier analysis. When the control is unconstrained, the optimal ensemble controller for this linear ensemble control systems is given in terms of prolate spheroidal wave functions. For the constrained convex optimisation problem of such systems, the quadratic programming is presented to obtain the optimal control laws. Simulations are given to verity the effectiveness of the proposed theory.

  19. Pycobra: A Python Toolbox for Ensemble Learning and Visualisation

    OpenAIRE

    Guedj, Benjamin; Srinivasa Desikan, Bhargav

    2017-01-01

    We introduce \\texttt{pycobra}, a Python library devoted to ensemble learning (regression and classification) and visualisation. Its main assets are the implementation of several ensemble learning algorithms, a flexible and generic interface to compare and blend any existing machine learning algorithm available in Python libraries (as long as a \\texttt{predict} method is given), and visualisation tools such as Voronoi tessellations. \\texttt{pycobra} is fully \\texttt{scikit-learn} compatible an...

  20. Ensembles of probability estimation trees for customer churn prediction

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    Customer churn prediction is one of the most, important elements tents of a company's Customer Relationship Management, (CRM) strategy In tins study, two strategies are investigated to increase the lift. performance of ensemble classification models, i.e (1) using probability estimation trees (PETs) instead of standard decision trees as base classifiers; and (n) implementing alternative fusion rules based on lift weights lot the combination of ensemble member's outputs Experiments ale conduct...

  1. Evolutionary Ensemble for In Silico Prediction of Ames Test Mutagenicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huanhuan; Yao, Xin

    Driven by new regulations and animal welfare, the need to develop in silico models has increased recently as alternative approaches to safety assessment of chemicals without animal testing. This paper describes a novel machine learning ensemble approach to building an in silico model for the prediction of the Ames test mutagenicity, one of a battery of the most commonly used experimental in vitro and in vivo genotoxicity tests for safety evaluation of chemicals. Evolutionary random neural ensemble with negative correlation learning (ERNE) [1] was developed based on neural networks and evolutionary algorithms. ERNE combines the method of bootstrap sampling on training data with the method of random subspace feature selection to ensure diversity in creating individuals within an initial ensemble. Furthermore, while evolving individuals within the ensemble, it makes use of the negative correlation learning, enabling individual NNs to be trained as accurate as possible while still manage to maintain them as diverse as possible. Therefore, the resulting individuals in the final ensemble are capable of cooperating collectively to achieve better generalization of prediction. The empirical experiment suggest that ERNE is an effective ensemble approach for predicting the Ames test mutagenicity of chemicals.

  2. SVM and SVM Ensembles in Breast Cancer Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Min-Wei; Chen, Chih-Wen; Lin, Wei-Chao; Ke, Shih-Wen; Tsai, Chih-Fong

    2017-01-01

    Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM) have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers. PMID:28060807

  3. Monthly Ensembles in Algal Bloom Predictions on the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roiha, Petra; Westerlund, Antti; Stipa, Tapani

    2010-05-01

    In this work we explore the statistical features of monthly ensembles and their capability to predict biogeochemical conditions in the Baltic Sea. Operational marine environmental modelling has been considered hard, and consequently there are very few operational ecological models. Operational modelling of harmful algal blooms is harder still, since it is difficult to separate the algal species in models, and in general, very little is known of HAB properties. We present results of an ensemble approach to HAB forecasting in the Baltic, and discuss the applicability of the forecasting method to biochemical modelling. It turns out that HABs are indeed possible to forecast with useful accuracy. For modelling the algal blooms in Baltic Sea we used FMI operational 3-dimensional biogeochemical model to produce seasonal ensemble forecasts for different physical, chemical and biological variables. The modelled variables were temperature, salinity, velocity, silicate, phosphate, nitrate, diatoms, flagellates and two species of potentially toxic filamentous cyanobacteria nodularia spumigena and aphanizomenon flos-aquae. In this work we concentrate to the latter two. Ensembles were produced by running the biogeochemical model several times and forcing it on every run with different set of seasonal weather parameters from ECMWF's mathematically perturbed ensemble prediction forecasts. The ensembles were then analysed by statistical methods and the median, quartiles, minimum and maximum values were calculated for estimating the probable amounts of algae. Validation for the forecast method was made by comparing the final results against available and valid in-situ HAB data.

  4. SVM and SVM Ensembles in Breast Cancer Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Min-Wei; Chen, Chih-Wen; Lin, Wei-Chao; Ke, Shih-Wen; Tsai, Chih-Fong

    2017-01-01

    Breast cancer is an all too common disease in women, making how to effectively predict it an active research problem. A number of statistical and machine learning techniques have been employed to develop various breast cancer prediction models. Among them, support vector machines (SVM) have been shown to outperform many related techniques. To construct the SVM classifier, it is first necessary to decide the kernel function, and different kernel functions can result in different prediction performance. However, there have been very few studies focused on examining the prediction performances of SVM based on different kernel functions. Moreover, it is unknown whether SVM classifier ensembles which have been proposed to improve the performance of single classifiers can outperform single SVM classifiers in terms of breast cancer prediction. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to fully assess the prediction performance of SVM and SVM ensembles over small and large scale breast cancer datasets. The classification accuracy, ROC, F-measure, and computational times of training SVM and SVM ensembles are compared. The experimental results show that linear kernel based SVM ensembles based on the bagging method and RBF kernel based SVM ensembles with the boosting method can be the better choices for a small scale dataset, where feature selection should be performed in the data pre-processing stage. For a large scale dataset, RBF kernel based SVM ensembles based on boosting perform better than the other classifiers.

  5. Selecting, weeding, and weighting biased climate model ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, C. S.; Picton, J.; Huerta, G.; Nosedal Sanchez, A.

    2012-12-01

    In the Bayesian formulation, the "log-likelihood" is a test statistic for selecting, weeding, or weighting climate model ensembles with observational data. This statistic has the potential to synthesize the physical and data constraints on quantities of interest. One of the thorny issues for formulating the log-likelihood is how one should account for biases. While in the past we have included a generic discrepancy term, not all biases affect predictions of quantities of interest. We make use of a 165-member ensemble CAM3.1/slab ocean climate models with different parameter settings to think through the issues that are involved with predicting each model's sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing given what can be observed from the base state. In particular we use multivariate empirical orthogonal functions to decompose the differences that exist among this ensemble to discover what fields and regions matter to the model's sensitivity. We find that the differences that matter are a small fraction of the total discrepancy. Moreover, weighting members of the ensemble using this knowledge does a relatively poor job of adjusting the ensemble mean toward the known answer. This points out the shortcomings of using weights to correct for biases in climate model ensembles created by a selection process that does not emphasize the priorities of your log-likelihood.

  6. Genetic Programming Based Ensemble System for Microarray Data Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun-Hong Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, more and more machine learning techniques have been applied to microarray data analysis. The aim of this study is to propose a genetic programming (GP based new ensemble system (named GPES, which can be used to effectively classify different types of cancers. Decision trees are deployed as base classifiers in this ensemble framework with three operators: Min, Max, and Average. Each individual of the GP is an ensemble system, and they become more and more accurate in the evolutionary process. The feature selection technique and balanced subsampling technique are applied to increase the diversity in each ensemble system. The final ensemble committee is selected by a forward search algorithm, which is shown to be capable of fitting data automatically. The performance of GPES is evaluated using five binary class and six multiclass microarray datasets, and results show that the algorithm can achieve better results in most cases compared with some other ensemble systems. By using elaborate base classifiers or applying other sampling techniques, the performance of GPES may be further improved.

  7. Knowledge based cluster ensemble for cancer discovery from biomolecular data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhiwen; Wongb, Hau-San; You, Jane; Yang, Qinmin; Liao, Hongying

    2011-06-01

    The adoption of microarray techniques in biological and medical research provides a new way for cancer diagnosis and treatment. In order to perform successful diagnosis and treatment of cancer, discovering and classifying cancer types correctly is essential. Class discovery is one of the most important tasks in cancer classification using biomolecular data. Most of the existing works adopt single clustering algorithms to perform class discovery from biomolecular data. However, single clustering algorithms have limitations, which include a lack of robustness, stability, and accuracy. In this paper, we propose a new cluster ensemble approach called knowledge based cluster ensemble (KCE) which incorporates the prior knowledge of the data sets into the cluster ensemble framework. Specifically, KCE represents the prior knowledge of a data set in the form of pairwise constraints. Then, the spectral clustering algorithm (SC) is adopted to generate a set of clustering solutions. Next, KCE transforms pairwise constraints into confidence factors for these clustering solutions. After that, a consensus matrix is constructed by considering all the clustering solutions and their corresponding confidence factors. The final clustering result is obtained by partitioning the consensus matrix. Comparison with single clustering algorithms and conventional cluster ensemble approaches, knowledge based cluster ensemble approaches are more robust, stable and accurate. The experiments on cancer data sets show that: 1) KCE works well on these data sets; 2) KCE not only outperforms most of the state-of-the-art single clustering algorithms, but also outperforms most of the state-of-the-art cluster ensemble approaches.

  8. Hybrid Intrusion Detection Using Ensemble of Classification Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Govindarajan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the major developments in machine learning in the past decade is the ensemble method, which finds highly accurate classifier by combining many moderately accurate component classifiers. In this research work, new ensemble classification methods are proposed for homogeneous ensemble classifiers using bagging and heterogeneous ensemble classifiers using arcing classifier and their performances are analyzed in terms of accuracy. A Classifier ensemble is designed using Radial Basis Function (RBF and Support Vector Machine (SVM as base classifiers. The feasibility and the benefits of the proposed approaches are demonstrated by the means of real and benchmark data sets of intrusion detection. The main originality of the proposed approach is based on three main parts: preprocessing phase, classification phase and combining phase. A wide range of comparative experiments are conducted for real and benchmark data sets of intrusion detection. The accuracy of base classifiers is compared with homogeneous and heterogeneous models for data mining problem. The proposed ensemble methods provide significant improvement of accuracy compared to individual classifiers and also heterogeneous models exhibit better results than homogeneous models for real and benchmark data sets of intrusion detection.

  9. Long-range interacting systems in the unconstrained ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latella, Ivan; Pérez-Madrid, Agustín; Campa, Alessandro; Casetti, Lapo; Ruffo, Stefano

    2017-01-01

    Completely open systems can exchange heat, work, and matter with the environment. While energy, volume, and number of particles fluctuate under completely open conditions, the equilibrium states of the system, if they exist, can be specified using the temperature, pressure, and chemical potential as control parameters. The unconstrained ensemble is the statistical ensemble describing completely open systems and the replica energy is the appropriate free energy for these control parameters from which the thermodynamics must be derived. It turns out that macroscopic systems with short-range interactions cannot attain equilibrium configurations in the unconstrained ensemble, since temperature, pressure, and chemical potential cannot be taken as a set of independent variables in this case. In contrast, we show that systems with long-range interactions can reach states of thermodynamic equilibrium in the unconstrained ensemble. To illustrate this fact, we consider a modification of the Thirring model and compare the unconstrained ensemble with the canonical and grand-canonical ones: The more the ensemble is constrained by fixing the volume or number of particles, the larger the space of parameters defining the equilibrium configurations.

  10. Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

    2016-03-01

    Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

  11. Ensembles of a small number of conformations with relative populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vammi, Vijay, E-mail: vsvammi@iastate.edu; Song, Guang, E-mail: gsong@iastate.edu [Iowa State University, Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Program, Department of Computer Science (United States)

    2015-12-15

    In our previous work, we proposed a new way to represent protein native states, using ensembles of a small number of conformations with relative Populations, or ESP in short. Using Ubiquitin as an example, we showed that using a small number of conformations could greatly reduce the potential of overfitting and assigning relative populations to protein ensembles could significantly improve their quality. To demonstrate that ESP indeed is an excellent alternative to represent protein native states, in this work we compare the quality of two ESP ensembles of Ubiquitin with several well-known regular ensembles or average structure representations. Extensive amount of significant experimental data are employed to achieve a thorough assessment. Our results demonstrate that ESP ensembles, though much smaller in size comparing to regular ensembles, perform equally or even better sometimes in all four different types of experimental data used in the assessment, namely, the residual dipolar couplings, residual chemical shift anisotropy, hydrogen exchange rates, and solution scattering profiles. This work further underlines the significance of having relative populations in describing the native states.

  12. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  13. Long-range interacting systems in the unconstrained ensemble.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latella, Ivan; Pérez-Madrid, Agustín; Campa, Alessandro; Casetti, Lapo; Ruffo, Stefano

    2017-01-01

    Completely open systems can exchange heat, work, and matter with the environment. While energy, volume, and number of particles fluctuate under completely open conditions, the equilibrium states of the system, if they exist, can be specified using the temperature, pressure, and chemical potential as control parameters. The unconstrained ensemble is the statistical ensemble describing completely open systems and the replica energy is the appropriate free energy for these control parameters from which the thermodynamics must be derived. It turns out that macroscopic systems with short-range interactions cannot attain equilibrium configurations in the unconstrained ensemble, since temperature, pressure, and chemical potential cannot be taken as a set of independent variables in this case. In contrast, we show that systems with long-range interactions can reach states of thermodynamic equilibrium in the unconstrained ensemble. To illustrate this fact, we consider a modification of the Thirring model and compare the unconstrained ensemble with the canonical and grand-canonical ones: The more the ensemble is constrained by fixing the volume or number of particles, the larger the space of parameters defining the equilibrium configurations.

  14. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  15. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J.; Tong, Xin T.

    2015-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature. PMID:26261335

  16. Characterisation of secondary organic aerosol formed during cloud condensation-evaporation cycles from isoprene photooxidation (CUMULUS project)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorio, Chiara; Bregonzio, Lola; Siekmann, Frank; Temime-Roussel, Brice; Ravier, Sylvain; Pangui, Edouard; Tapparo, Andrea; Kalberer, Markus; Monod, Anne; Doussin, Jean-François

    2014-05-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) undergo many reactions in the atmosphere and form a wide range of oxidised and water-soluble compounds. These compounds could partition into atmospheric water droplets, and react within the aqueous phase producing higher molecular weight and less volatile compounds which could remain in the particle phase after water evaporation (Ervens et al., 2011). The aim of this work is the characterisation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed from the photooxidation of isoprene and the effect of cloud water on SOA formation and composition. The experiments were performed during the CUMULUS project (CloUd MULtiphase chemistry of organic compoUndS in the troposphere), at the 4.2 m3 stainless steel CESAM chamber at LISA (Wang et al., 2011). In each experiment, isoprene was injected in the chamber together with HONO under dry conditions before irradiation. Gas phase compounds were analyzed on-line by a Proton Transfer Reaction Time of Flight Mass Spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS), a Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometer (FTIR), NOx and O3 analyzers. SOA formation and composition were analysed on-line with a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) and an Aerodyne High Resolution Time of Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS). Particular attention has been focused on SOA formation and aging during cloud condensation-evaporation cycles simulated in the smog chamber. In all experiments, we observed that during cloud formation water soluble gas-phase oxidation products readily partitioned into cloud droplets and new SOA was promptly produced which partly persisted after cloud evaporation. Chemical composition, elemental ratios and density of SOA, measured with the HR-ToF-AMS, were compared before, during cloud formation and after cloud evaporation. Experiments with other precursors, i.e. methacrolein, and effects of the presence of seeds were also investigated. Ervens, B. et al. (2011) Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 11069 11102. Wang, J. et al

  17. Characterisation of Secondary Organic Aerosol Formed from the Photooxidation of Isoprene during Cloud Condensation-Evaporation Cycles (CUMULUS Project)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doussin, J. F.; Giorio, C.; Bregonzio-Rozier, L.; Siekmann, F.; Temime-Roussel, B.; Gratien, A.; Ravier, S.; Pangui, E.; Tapparo, A.; Kalberer, M.; Vermeylen, R.; Claeys, M.; Monod, A.

    2014-12-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) undergo many oxidation processes in the atmosphere accompanied by formation of water-soluble compounds. These compounds could partition into atmospheric water droplets, and react within the aqueous phase producing higher molecular weight and less volatile compounds which could form new aerosol (Ervens et al., 2011). This work investigates the formation and composition of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from the photooxidation of isoprene and methacrolein (its main first-generation oxidation product) and the effect of cloud water on SOA formation and composition. The experiments were performed within the CUMULUS project (CloUd MULtiphase chemistry of organic compoUndS in the troposphere) at the 4.2 m3 stainless steel CESAM chamber (Wang et al., 2011). In each experiment, isoprene or methacrolein was injected in the chamber together with HONO under dry conditions before irradiation. The experimental protocol was optimised to generate cloud events in the chamber, lasting for ca. 10 minutes in the presence of light. Gas phase compounds were analyzed on-line by a Proton Transfer Reaction Time of Flight Mass Spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS), a Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometer (FTIR), NOx and O3 analyzers. SOA formation and composition were analysed on-line with a Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) and an Aerodyne High Resolution Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS) and off-line through sampling on filters and analysis in GC-MS and LC-MS. We observed that during cloud formation water soluble gas-phase oxidation products readily partitioned into cloud droplets and new SOA was promptly produced. Chemical composition, elemental ratios and density of SOA were compared before, during cloud formation and after cloud evaporation. Ervens, B. et al. (2011) Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 11069-11102. Wang, J. et al. (2011) Atmos. Measur. Tech. 4, 2465-2494.

  18. In Vitro Maturation of Cumulus-Oocyte Complexes for Efficient Isolation of Oocytes from Outbred Deer Mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jung Kyu; He, Xiaoming

    2013-01-01

    Background The outbred (as with humans) deer mice have been a useful animal model of research on human behavior and biology including that of the reproductive system. One of the major challenges in using this species is that the yield of oocyte isolation via superovulation is dismal according to the literature to date less than ∼5 oocytes per animal can be obtained so far. Objective The goal of this study is to improve the yield of oocyte isolation from outbred deer mice close to that of most laboratory mice by in vitro maturation (IVM) of cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs). Methods Oocytes were isolated by both superovulation and IVM. For the latter, COCs were obtained by follicular puncture of antral follicles in both the surface and inner cortical layers of ovaries. Immature oocytes in the COCs were then cultured in vitro under optimized conditions to obtain metaphase II (MII) oocytes. Quality of the oocytes from IVM and superovulation was tested by in vitro fertilization (IVF) and embryo development. Results Less than ∼5 oocytes per animal could be isolated by superovulation only. However, we successfully obtained 20.3±2.9 oocytes per animal by IVM (16.0±2.5) and superovulation (4.3±1.3) in this study. Moreover, IVF and embryo development studies suggest that IVM oocytes have even better quality than that from superovulation The latter never developed to beyond 2-cell stage as usual while 9% of the former developed to 4-cells. Significance We have successfully established the protocol for isolating oocytes from deer mice with high yield by IVM. Moreover, this is the first ever success to develop in vitro fertilized deer mice oocytes beyond the 2-cell stage in vitro. Therefore, this study is of significance to the use of deer mice for reproductive biology research. PMID:23457518

  19. In vitro maturation of cumulus-oocyte complexes for efficient isolation of oocytes from outbred deer mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jung Kyu Choi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The outbred (as with humans deer mice have been a useful animal model of research on human behavior and biology including that of the reproductive system. One of the major challenges in using this species is that the yield of oocyte isolation via superovulation is dismal according to the literature to date less than ∼5 oocytes per animal can be obtained so far. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to improve the yield of oocyte isolation from outbred deer mice close to that of most laboratory mice by in vitro maturation (IVM of cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs. METHODS: Oocytes were isolated by both superovulation and IVM. For the latter, COCs were obtained by follicular puncture of antral follicles in both the surface and inner cortical layers of ovaries. Immature oocytes in the COCs were then cultured in vitro under optimized conditions to obtain metaphase II (MII oocytes. Quality of the oocytes from IVM and superovulation was tested by in vitro fertilization (IVF and embryo development. RESULTS: Less than ∼5 oocytes per animal could be isolated by superovulation only. However, we successfully obtained 20.3±2.9 oocytes per animal by IVM (16.0±2.5 and superovulation (4.3±1.3 in this study. Moreover, IVF and embryo development studies suggest that IVM oocytes have even better quality than that from superovulation The latter never developed to beyond 2-cell stage as usual while 9% of the former developed to 4-cells. SIGNIFICANCE: We have successfully established the protocol for isolating oocytes from deer mice with high yield by IVM. Moreover, this is the first ever success to develop in vitro fertilized deer mice oocytes beyond the 2-cell stage in vitro. Therefore, this study is of significance to the use of deer mice for reproductive biology research.

  20. EnsembleGASVR: A novel ensemble method for classifying missense single nucleotide polymorphisms

    KAUST Repository

    Rapakoulia, Trisevgeni

    2014-04-26

    Motivation: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are considered the most frequently occurring DNA sequence variations. Several computational methods have been proposed for the classification of missense SNPs to neutral and disease associated. However, existing computational approaches fail to select relevant features by choosing them arbitrarily without sufficient documentation. Moreover, they are limited to the problem ofmissing values, imbalance between the learning datasets and most of them do not support their predictions with confidence scores. Results: To overcome these limitations, a novel ensemble computational methodology is proposed. EnsembleGASVR facilitates a twostep algorithm, which in its first step applies a novel evolutionary embedded algorithm to locate close to optimal Support Vector Regression models. In its second step, these models are combined to extract a universal predictor, which is less prone to overfitting issues, systematizes the rebalancing of the learning sets and uses an internal approach for solving the missing values problem without loss of information. Confidence scores support all the predictions and the model becomes tunable by modifying the classification thresholds. An extensive study was performed for collecting the most relevant features for the problem of classifying SNPs, and a superset of 88 features was constructed. Experimental results show that the proposed framework outperforms well-known algorithms in terms of classification performance in the examined datasets. Finally, the proposed algorithmic framework was able to uncover the significant role of certain features such as the solvent accessibility feature, and the top-scored predictions were further validated by linking them with disease phenotypes. © The Author 2014.

  1. Ensemble Kalman filter versus ensemble smoother for assessing hydraulic conductivity via tracer test data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Crestani

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity K in natural aquifers is important for predicting the transport of dissolved compounds. Especially in the nonreactive case, the plume evolution is mainly controlled by the heterogeneity of K. At the local scale, the spatial distribution of K can be inferred by combining the Lagrangian formulation of the transport with a Kalman-filter-based technique and assimilating a sequence of time-lapse concentration C measurements, which, for example, can be evaluated on site through the application of a geophysical method. The objective of this work is to compare the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF and the ensemble smoother (ES capabilities to retrieve the hydraulic conductivity spatial distribution in a groundwater flow and transport modeling framework. The application refers to a two-dimensional synthetic aquifer in which a tracer test is simulated. Moreover, since Kalman-filter-based methods are optimal only if each of the involved variables fit to a Gaussian probability density function (pdf and since this condition may not be met by some of the flow and transport state variables, issues related to the non-Gaussianity of the variables are analyzed and different transformation of the pdfs are considered in order to evaluate their influence on the performance of the methods. The results show that the EnKF reproduces with good accuracy the hydraulic conductivity field, outperforming the ES regardless of the pdf of the concentrations.

  2. On evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts with observation-based ensembles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Jaun

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is uncertain. How important is this uncertainty and how can it be considered in evaluation of high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasts? These questions are discussed by experimental evaluation of the COSMO consortium's limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS. The applied performance measure is the often used Brier skill score (BSS. The observational references in the evaluation are (a analyzed rain gauge data by ordinary Kriging and (b ensembles of interpolated rain gauge data by stochastic simulation. This permits the consideration of either a deterministic reference (the event is observed or not with 100% certainty or a probabilistic reference that makes allowance for uncertainties in spatial averaging. The evaluation experiments show that the evaluation uncertainties are substantial even for the large area (41 300 km2 of Switzerland with a mean rain gauge distance as good as 7 km: the one- to three-day precipitation forecasts have skill decreasing with forecast lead time but the one- and two-day forecast performances differ not significantly.

  3. Comparing climate change impacts on crops in Belgium based on CMIP3 and EU-ENSEMBLES multi-model ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanuytrecht, E.; Raes, D.; Willems, P.; Semenov, M.

    2012-04-01

    Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are sophisticated tools to study the future evolution of the climate. Yet, the coarse scale of GCMs of hundreds of kilometers raises questions about the suitability for agricultural impact assessments. These assessments are often made at field level and require consideration of interactions at sub-GCM grid scale (e.g., elevation-dependent climatic changes). Regional climate models (RCMs) were developed to provide climate projections at a spatial scale of 25-50 km for limited regions, e.g. Europe (Giorgi and Mearns, 1991). Climate projections from GCMs or RCMs are available as multi-model ensembles. These ensembles are based on large data sets of simulations produced by modelling groups worldwide, who performed a set of coordinated climate experiments in which climate models were run for a common set of experiments and various emissions scenarios (Knutti et al., 2010). The use of multi-model ensembles in climate change studies is an important step in quantifying uncertainty in impact predictions, which will underpin more informed decisions for adaptation and mitigation to changing climate (Semenov and Stratonovitch, 2010). The objective of our study was to evaluate the effect of the spatial scale of climate projections on climate change impacts for cereals in Belgium. Climate scenarios were based on two multi-model ensembles, one comprising 15 GCMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3; Meehl et al., 2007) with spatial resolution of 200-300 km, the other comprising 9 RCMs of the EU-ENSEMBLES project (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009) with spatial resolution of 25 km. To be useful for agricultural impact assessments, the projections of GCMs and RCMs were downscaled to the field level. Long series (240 cropping seasons) of local-scale climate scenarios were generated by the LARS-WG weather generator (Semenov et al., 2010) via statistical inference. Crop growth and development were simulated with the Aqua

  4. Extending prematuration with cAMP modulators enhances the cumulus contribution to oocyte antioxidant defence and oocyte quality via gap junctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, H J; Sutton-McDowall, M L; Wang, X; Sugimura, S; Thompson, J G; Gilchrist, R B

    2016-04-01

    Can bovine oocyte antioxidant defence and oocyte quality be improved by extending the duration of pre-in vitro maturation (IVM) with cyclic adenosine mono-phosphate (cAMP) modulators? Lengthening the duration of cAMP-modulated pre-IVM elevates intra-oocyte reduced glutathione (GSH) content and reduces hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) via increased cumulus cell-oocyte gap-junctional communication (GJC), associated with an improvement in subsequent embryo development and quality. Oocytes are susceptible to oxidative stress and the oocyte's most important antioxidant glutathione is supplied, at least in part, by cumulus cells. A temporary inhibition of spontaneous meiotic resumption in oocytes can be achieved by preventing a fall in cAMP, and cyclic AMP-modulated pre-IVM maintains cumulus-oocyte GJC and improves subsequent embryo development. This study consisted of a series of 10 experiments using bovine oocytes in vitro, each with multiple replicates. A range of pre-IVM durations were examined as the key study treatments which were compared with a control. The study was designed to examine if one of the oocyte's major antioxidant defences can be enhanced by pre-IVM with cAMP modulators, and to examine the contribution of cumulus-oocyte GJC on these processes. Immature bovine cumulus-oocyte complexes were treated in vitro without (control) or with the cAMP modulators; 100 µM forskolin (FSK) and 500 µM 3-isobutyl-1-methyxanthine (IBMX), for 0, 2, 4 or 6 h (pre-IVM phase) prior to IVM. Oocyte developmental competence was assessed by embryo development and quality post-IVM/IVF. Cumulus-oocyte GJC, intra-oocyte GSH and H2O2 were quantified at various time points during pre-IVM and IVM, in the presence and the absence of functional inhibitors: carbenoxolone (CBX) to block GJC and buthionine sulfoximide (BSO) to inhibit glutathione synthesis. Pre-IVM with FSK + IBMX increased subsequent blastocyst formation rate and quality compared with standard IVM (P benefits of c

  5. A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Thirel

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Such systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at Météo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of Météo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS. Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm Rate, etc., especially

  6. Primary cumulus platinum minerals in the Monts de Cristal Complex, Gabon: magmatic microenvironments inferred from high-definition X-ray fluorescence microscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Stephen J.; Fisher, Louise A.; Godel, Bélinda; Pearce, Mark A.; Maier, Wolfgang D.; Paterson, David; Howard, Daryl L.; Ryan, Christopher G.; Laird, Jamie S.

    2016-03-01

    An unusual occurrence of Pt-enriched pyroxenites in the Monts de Cristal igneous complex is characterized by unusually high ratios of Pt to other platinum-group elements (PGEs) and very low Cu and sulfide contents. Synchrotron X-ray fluorescence microscopy was used to identify over a hundred discrete grains of platinum minerals and relate their occurrence to textural associations in the host heteradcumulate orthopyroxenites. Element associations, backed up by FIB-SEM and PIXE probe observations, indicate that most of the Pt is associated with either As- or trace Cu-Ni-rich sulfides, or both. Some of the Pt-As grains can be identified as sperrylite, and most are likely to be Pt-Fe alloy. The relative abundances and volumes of Pt minerals to sulfide minerals are very large compared with typical magmatic sulfides. Almost all of the grains observed lie at or within a few tens of μm of cumulus orthopyroxene grain boundaries, and there is no significant difference between the populations of grains located inside or outside plagioclase oikocrysts. These oikocrysts are inferred to have crystallized either at the cumulus stage or very shortly thereafter, on the basis of their relationship to Ti enrichment in the margins of pyroxene grains not enclosed in oikocrysts. This relationship precludes a significant role of trapped intercumulus liquid in Pt deposition or mobilization and also allows a confident inference that Pt-rich and Pt-As-enriched phases precipitated directly from the magma at the cumulus stage. These observations lead to the conclusion that fractionation of Pt from other PGEs in this magmatic system is a consequence of a solubility limit for solid Pt metal and/or Pt arsenide.

  7. Combining 2-m temperature nowcasting and short range ensemble forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kann

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available During recent years, numerical ensemble prediction systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties of dynamical and physical processes as represented in numerical weather models. The latest generation of limited area ensemble prediction systems (LAM-EPSs allows for probabilistic forecasts at high resolution in both space and time. However, these systems still suffer from systematic deficiencies. Especially for nowcasting (0–6 h applications the ensemble spread is smaller than the actual forecast error. This paper tries to generate probabilistic short range 2-m temperature forecasts by combining a state-of-the-art nowcasting method and a limited area ensemble system, and compares the results with statistical methods. The Integrated Nowcasting Through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA system, which has been in operation at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG since 2006 (Haiden et al., 2011, provides short range deterministic forecasts at high temporal (15 min–60 min and spatial (1 km resolution. An INCA Ensemble (INCA-EPS of 2-m temperature forecasts is constructed by applying a dynamical approach, a statistical approach, and a combined dynamic-statistical method. The dynamical method takes uncertainty information (i.e. ensemble variance from the operational limited area ensemble system ALADIN-LAEF (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting which is running operationally at ZAMG (Wang et al., 2011. The purely statistical method assumes a well-calibrated spread-skill relation and applies ensemble spread according to the skill of the INCA forecast of the most recent past. The combined dynamic-statistical approach adapts the ensemble variance gained from ALADIN-LAEF with non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR which yields a statistical mbox{correction} of the first and second moment (mean bias and dispersion for Gaussian distributed continuous

  8. Motor-motor interactions in ensembles of muscle myosin: using theory to connect single molecule to ensemble measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walcott, Sam

    2013-03-01

    Interactions between the proteins actin and myosin drive muscle contraction. Properties of a single myosin interacting with an actin filament are largely known, but a trillion myosins work together in muscle. We are interested in how single-molecule properties relate to ensemble function. Myosin's reaction rates depend on force, so ensemble models keep track of both molecular state and force on each molecule. These models make subtle predictions, e.g. that myosin, when part of an ensemble, moves actin faster than when isolated. This acceleration arises because forces between molecules speed reaction kinetics. Experiments support this prediction and allow parameter estimates. A model based on this analysis describes experiments from single molecule to ensemble. In vivo, actin is regulated by proteins that, when present, cause the binding of one myosin to speed the binding of its neighbors; binding becomes cooperative. Although such interactions preclude the mean field approximation, a set of linear ODEs describes these ensembles under simplified experimental conditions. In these experiments cooperativity is strong, with the binding of one molecule affecting ten neighbors on either side. We progress toward a description of myosin ensembles under physiological conditions.

  9. Skill of ship-following large-eddy simulations in reproducing MAGIC observations across the northeast Pacific stratocumulus to cumulus transition region

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGibbon, J.; Bretherton, C. S.

    2017-06-01

    During the Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds (MAGIC) in October 2011 to September 2012, a container ship making periodic cruises between Los Angeles, CA, and Honolulu, HI, was instrumented with surface meteorological, aerosol and radiation instruments, a cloud radar and ceilometer, and radiosondes. Here large-eddy simulation (LES) is performed in a ship-following frame of reference for 13 four day transects from the MAGIC field campaign. The goal is to assess if LES can skillfully simulate the broad range of observed cloud characteristics and boundary layer structure across the subtropical stratocumulus to cumulus transition region sampled during different seasons and meteorological conditions. Results from Leg 15A, which sampled a particularly well-defined stratocumulus to cumulus transition, demonstrate the approach. The LES reproduces the observed timing of decoupling and transition from stratocumulus to cumulus and matches the observed evolution of boundary layer structure, cloud fraction, liquid water path, and precipitation statistics remarkably well. Considering the simulations of all 13 cruises, the LES skillfully simulates the mean diurnal variation of key measured quantities, including liquid water path (LWP), cloud fraction, measures of decoupling, and cloud radar-derived precipitation. The daily mean quantities are well represented, and daily mean LWP and cloud fraction show the expected correlation with estimated inversion strength. There is a -0.6 K low bias in LES near-surface air temperature that results in a high bias of 5.6 W m-2 in sensible heat flux (SHF). Overall, these results build confidence in the ability of LES to represent the northeast Pacific stratocumulus to trade cumulus transition region.Plain Language SummaryDuring the Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds (MAGIC) field campaign in October 2011 to September 2012, a cargo container ship making regular cruises between Los Angeles, CA, and Honolulu, HI, was fitted with tools to

  10. Flexible modeling frameworks to replace small ensembles of hydrological models and move toward large ensembles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addor, Nans; Clark, Martyn P.; Mizukami, Naoki

    2017-04-01

    Climate change impacts on hydrological processes are typically assessed using small ensembles of hydrological models. That is, a handful of hydrological models are typically driven by a larger number of climate models. Such a setup has several limitations. Because the number of hydrological models is small, only a small proportion of the model space is sampled, likely leading to an underestimation of the uncertainties in the projections. Further, sampling is arbitrary: although hydrological models should be selected to provide a representative sample of existing models (in terms of complexity and governing hypotheses), they are instead usually selected based on legacy reasons. Furthermore, running several hydrological models currently constitutes a practical challenge because each model must be setup and calibrated individually. Finally, and probably most importantly, the differences between the projected impacts cannot be directly related to differences between hydrological models, because the models are different in almost every possible aspect. We are hence in a situation in which different hydrological models deliver different projections, but for reasons that are mostly unclear, and in which the uncertainty in the projections is probably underestimated. To overcome these limitations, we are experimenting with the flexible modeling framework FUSE (Framework for Understanding Model Errors). FUSE enables to construct conceptual models piece by piece (in a "pick and mix" approach), so it can be used to generate a large number of models that mimic existing models and/or models that differ from other models in single targeted respect (e.g. how baseflow is generated). FUSE hence allows for controlled modeling experiments, and for a more systematic and exhaustive sampling of the model space. Here we explore climate change impacts over the contiguous USA on a 12km grid using two groups of three models: the first group involves the commonly used models VIC, PRMS and HEC

  11. Quantifying Monte Carlo uncertainty in ensemble Kalman filter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thulin, Kristian; Naevdal, Geir; Skaug, Hans Julius; Aanonsen, Sigurd Ivar

    2009-01-15

    This report is presenting results obtained during Kristian Thulin PhD study, and is a slightly modified form of a paper submitted to SPE Journal. Kristian Thulin did most of his portion of the work while being a PhD student at CIPR, University of Bergen. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is currently considered one of the most promising methods for conditioning reservoir simulation models to production data. The EnKF is a sequential Monte Carlo method based on a low rank approximation of the system covariance matrix. The posterior probability distribution of model variables may be estimated fram the updated ensemble, but because of the low rank covariance approximation, the updated ensemble members become correlated samples from the posterior distribution. We suggest using multiple EnKF runs, each with smaller ensemble size to obtain truly independent samples from the posterior distribution. This allows a point-wise confidence interval for the posterior cumulative distribution function (CDF) to be constructed. We present a methodology for finding an optimal combination of ensemble batch size (n) and number of EnKF runs (m) while keeping the total number of ensemble members ( m x n) constant. The optimal combination of n and m is found through minimizing the integrated mean square error (MSE) for the CDFs and we choose to define an EnKF run with 10.000 ensemble members as having zero Monte Carlo error. The methodology is tested on a simplistic, synthetic 2D model, but should be applicable also to larger, more realistic models. (author). 12 refs., figs.,tabs

  12. Bayesian Processor of Ensemble for Precipitation Forecasting: A Development Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Z.; Krzysztofowicz, R.

    2006-05-01

    The Bayesian Processor of Ensemble (BPE) is a new, theoretically-based technique for probabilistic forecasting of weather variates. It is a generalization of the Bayesian Processor of Output (BPO) developed by Krzysztofowicz and Maranzano for processing single values of multiple predictors into a posterior distribution function of a predictand. The BPE processes an ensemble of a predictand generated by multiple integrations of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, and optimally fuses the ensemble with climatic data in order to quantify uncertainty about the predictand. As is well known, Bayes theorem provides the optimal theoretical framework for fusing information from different sources and for obtaining the posterior distribution function of a predictand. Using a family of such distribution functions, a given raw ensemble can be mapped into a posterior ensemble, which is well calibrated, has maximum informativeness, and preserves the spatio-temporal and cross-variate dependence structure of the NWP output fields. The challenge is to develop and test the BPE suitable for operational forecasting. This talk will present the basic design components of the BPE, along with a discussion of the climatic and training data to be used in its potential application at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The technique will be tested first on quasi-normally distributed variates and next on precipitation variates. For reasons of economy, the BPE will be applied on the relatively coarse resolution grid corresponding to the ensemble output, and then the posterior ensemble will be downscaled to finer grids such as that of the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD).

  13. A pre-in vitro maturation medium containing cumulus oocyte complex ligand-receptor signaling molecules maintains meiotic arrest, supports the cumulus oocyte complex and improves oocyte developmental competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiquet, Nicolas W; Greene, Alison F; Becker, John; Barfield, Jennifer P; Schoolcraft, William B; Krisher, Rebecca L

    2017-09-01

    Can a pre-in vitro maturation (pre-IVM) medium containing signaling molecules rather than chemical/pharmaceutical agents, sustain meiotic arrest and improve developmental competence of in vitro matured oocytes in CF1 outbred mice? A short 2 h period of pre-IVM prevents spontaneous meiotic resumption, improves mitochondria activity in subsequently matured oocytes, and increases developmental competence, pregnancy rate and implantation of resulting embryos. Spontaneous resumption of meiosis in vitro is detrimental for oocyte developmental competence. Pre-IVM systems that prevent spontaneous meiotic resumption with chemical/pharmaceutical agents are a promising approach to improving IVM oocyte competence; however, the success of these methods has proven to be inconsistent. This study consisted of a series of experiments using cumulus oocyte complexes (COC) derived from outbred mice following ovarian stimulation. The study was designed to examine if a novel, ligand/receptor-based pre-IVM treatment could sustain meiotic arrest in vitro and improve oocyte developmental competence, compared to control IVM. Two pre-IVM durations (2 h and 24 h) were evaluated, and the effect of the mitochondrial stimulator PQQ during 24 h pre-IVM was studied. Murine (outbred CF1) immature COC were cultured in vitro in the presence of C-type natriuretic peptide (CNP) (30 nM), estradiol (100 nM), FSH (1 × 10-4 IU/ml) and bone morphogenic protein 15 (BMP15) (100 ng/ml) for 2 h or 24 h prior to IVM. Meiotic status during pre-IVM and IVM was analyzed using orcein staining, and functionality of gap junction communication was confirmed using the functional gap junction inhibitor carbenoxolone (CBX). Oocytes exposed to pre-IVM treatment were compared to control oocytes collected on the same day from the same females and undergoing standard IVM. Developmental competence and embryo viability was assessed by oocyte mitochondrial activity and ATP concentration, in vitro embryo development following

  14. Ensemble Kalman filter versus ensemble smoother for assessing hydraulic conductivity via tracer test data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Crestani

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The significance of estimating the spatial variability of the hydraulic conductivity K in natural aquifers is relevant to the possibility of defining the space and time evolution of a non-reactive plume, since the transport of a solute is mainly controlled by the heterogeneity of K. At the local scale, the spatial distribution of K can be inferred by combining the Lagrangian formulation of the transport with a Kalman filter-based technique and assimilating a sequence of time-lapse concentration C measurements, which, for example, can be evaluated on-site through the application of a geophysical method. The objective of this work is to compare the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF and the ensemble smoother (ES capabilities to retrieve the hydraulic conductivity spatial distribution in a groundwater flow and transport modeling framework. The application refers to a two-dimensional synthetic aquifer in which a tracer test is simulated. Moreover, since Kalman filter-based methods are optimal only if each of the involved variables fit to a Gaussian probability density function (pdf and since this condition may not be met by some of the flow and transport state variables, issues related to the non-Gaussianity of the variables are analyzed and different transformation of the pdfs are considered in order to evaluate their influence on the performance of the methods. The results show that the EnKF reproduces with good accuracy the hydraulic conductivity field, outperforming the ES regardless of the pdf of the concentrations.

  15. Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schaake

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of precipitation and temperature. This involves dividing the spatial forecast domain and total forecast period into a number of parts that are treated as separate forecast events. The spatial domain is divided into hydrologic sub-basins. The total forecast period is divided into time periods, one for each model time step. For each event archived values of forecasts and corresponding observations are used to model the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. The conditional distribution of observations for a given single-value forecast is used to represent the corresponding probability distribution of events that may occur for that forecast. This conditional forecast distribution subsequently is used to create ensemble members that vary in space and time using the "Schaake Shuffle" (Clark et al, 2004. The resulting ensemble members have the same space-time patterns as historical observations so that space-time joint relationships between events that have a significant effect on hydrological response tend to be preserved.

    Forecast uncertainty is space and time-scale dependent. For a given lead time to the beginning of the valid period of an event, forecast uncertainty depends on the length of the forecast valid time period and the spatial area to which the forecast applies. Although the "Schaake Shuffle" procedure, when applied to construct ensemble members from a time-series of single value forecasts, may preserve some of this scale dependency, it may not be sufficient without additional constraint. To account more fully for the time-dependent structure of forecast uncertainty, events for additional "aggregate" forecast periods are defined as accumulations of different "base" forecast periods.

    The generated ensemble members can be ingested by an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system to produce ensemble forecasts of streamflow and other

  16. Seamless Hourly Rainfall Ensemble Forecasts for 0 - 10 days

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Shaun; Seed, Alan

    2014-05-01

    The Australian Bureau of Meteorology uses a number of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models to generate deterministic rainfall forecasts over a range of lead-times, each with a different resolution in space and time and with different forecast domains. High resolution regional NWP models are used to generate forecasts for the first three days, and are typically more accurate than lower resolution Global NWP models that produce forecasts for longer lead times. Consequently, there is a requirement for a seamless forecast system that is able to blend the various NWP forecasts into a single forecast with a uniform resolution over the entire forecast period. NWP rainfall forecasts contain errors at scales that are significant for even large river basins, and ensemble hydrological prediction systems require ensembles of the order of 100 members, which is well beyond the size that can be generated by NWP ensemble systems. The idea, therefore, is to blend the NWP models in such a way that recognises the skill of the NWP at a particular scale and lead time and to use a stochastic model of forecast errors to perturb the blended deterministic forecast to generate a large ensemble. NWP uncertainties are scale and forecast lead time dependent, especially at long forecast lead times, and are characteristic to each model. By blending the models scale by scale it is possible to recognise the increased skill of the models at larger spatial scales and shorter lead times. The stochastic model is applied at each scale, adding increasingly more variability at smaller spatial scales, while preserving the space-time structure of rain. This process allows an ensemble to be generated by blending deterministic forecasts. Two NWP models from the Bureau, ACCESS-G (Global) (~40 km by ~40 km, 3 hourly out to 10 days) and ACCESS-R (Regional) (~12 km by ~12 km, 1 hourly out to 3 days), are downscaled and blended with the stochastic model to produce an ensemble of hourly forecasts out to 10

  17. Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Kalman Filter for geophysical data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsyrulnikov, Michael; Rakitko, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    In the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), the forecast error covariance matrix B is estimated from a sample (ensemble), which inevitably implies a degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty is especially large in high dimensions, where the affordable ensemble size is orders of magnitude less than the dimensionality of the system. Common remedies include ad-hoc devices like variance inflation and covariance localization. The goal of this study is to optimize the account for the inherent uncertainty of the B matrix in EnKF. Following the idea by Myrseth and Omre (2010), we explicitly admit that the B matrix is unknown and random and estimate it along with the state (x) in an optimal hierarchical Bayes analysis scheme. We separate forecast errors into predictability errors (i.e. forecast errors due to uncertainties in the initial data) and model errors (forecast errors due to imperfections in the forecast model) and include the two respective components P and Q of the B matrix into the extended control vector (x,P,Q). Similarly, we break the traditional forecast ensemble into the predictability-error related ensemble and model-error related ensemble. The reason for the separation of model errors from predictability errors is the fundamental difference between the two sources of error. Model error are external (i.e. do not depend on the filter's performance) whereas predictability errors are internal to a filter (i.e. are determined by the filter's behavior). At the analysis step, we specify Inverse Wishart based priors for the random matrices P and Q and conditionally Gaussian prior for the state x. Then, we update the prior distribution of (x,P,Q) using both observation and ensemble data, so that ensemble members are used as generalized observations and ordinary observations are allowed to influence the covariances. We show that for linear dynamics and linear observation operators, conditional Gaussianity of the state is preserved in the course of filtering. At the forecast

  18. Trends in the predictive performance of raw ensemble weather forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemri, Stephan; Scheuerer, Michael; Pappenberger, Florian; Bogner, Konrad; Haiden, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Over the last two decades the paradigm in weather forecasting has shifted from being deterministic to probabilistic. Accordingly, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been run increasingly as ensemble forecasting systems. The goal of such ensemble forecasts is to approximate the forecast probability distribution by a finite sample of scenarios. Global ensemble forecast systems, like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble, are prone to probabilistic biases, and are therefore not reliable. They particularly tend to be underdispersive for surface weather parameters. Hence, statistical post-processing is required in order to obtain reliable and sharp forecasts. In this study we apply statistical post-processing to ensemble forecasts of near-surface temperature, 24-hour precipitation totals, and near-surface wind speed from the global ECMWF model. Our main objective is to evaluate the evolution of the difference in skill between the raw ensemble and the post-processed forecasts. The ECMWF ensemble is under continuous development, and hence its forecast skill improves over time. Parts of these improvements may be due to a reduction of probabilistic bias. Thus, we first hypothesize that the gain by post-processing decreases over time. Based on ECMWF forecasts from January 2002 to March 2014 and corresponding observations from globally distributed stations we generate post-processed forecasts by ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) for each station and variable. Parameter estimates are obtained by minimizing the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) over rolling training periods that consist of the n days preceding the initialization dates. Given the higher average skill in terms of CRPS of the post-processed forecasts for all three variables, we analyze the evolution of the difference in skill between raw ensemble and EMOS forecasts. The fact that the gap in skill remains almost constant over time, especially for near

  19. Ensemble size impact on the decadal predictive skill assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Sienz

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Retrospective prediction experiments have to be performed to estimate the skill of decadal prediction systems. These are necessarily restricted in the number due to the computational constraints. From weather and seasonal prediction it is known that the ensemble size is crucial to yield reliable predictions. Differences are expected for decadal predictions due to the differing time-scales of the involved processes and the longer prediction horizon. A conceptual model is applied that enables the systematic analysis of ensemble size dependencies in a framework close to that of decadal predictions. Differences are quantified in terms of the confidence intervals coverage and the power of statistical tests for prediction scores. In addition, the concepts are applied to decadal predicitions of the MiKlip Baseline1 system. It is shown that small ensemble, as well as hindcast sample sizes lead to biased test performances in a way that the detection of a present prediction skill is hampered. Experiments with ensemble sizes smaller than 10 are not recommended to evaluate decadal prediction skill or as basis for the prediction system developement. For regions with low signal-to-noise ratios much larger ensembles are required and it is shown that in this case successful decadal predictions are possible for the Central European summer temperatures.

  20. Application of evolutionary computation on ensemble forecast of quantitative precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufek, Amanda S.; Augusto, Douglas A.; Dias, Pedro L. S.; Barbosa, Helio J. C.

    2017-09-01

    An evolutionary computation algorithm known as genetic programming (GP) has been explored as an alternative tool for improving the ensemble forecast of 24-h accumulated precipitation. Three GP versions and six ensembles' languages were applied to several real-world datasets over southern, southeastern and central Brazil during the rainy period from October to February of 2008-2013. According to the results, the GP algorithms performed better than two traditional statistical techniques, with errors 27-57% lower than simple ensemble mean and the MASTER super model ensemble system. In addition, the results revealed that GP algorithms outperformed the best individual forecasts, reaching an improvement of 34-42%. On the other hand, the GP algorithms had a similar performance with respect to each other and to the Bayesian model averaging, but the former are far more versatile techniques. Although the results for the six ensembles' languages are almost indistinguishable, our most complex linear language turned out to be the best overall proposal. Moreover, some meteorological attributes, including the weather patterns over Brazil, seem to play an important role in the prediction of daily rainfall amount.