WorldWideScience

Sample records for cumulative incidence rate

  1. Comparison of the Postoperative Incidence Rate of Capsular Contracture among Different Breast Implants: A Cumulative Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xing; Zhou, Liang; Pan, Fuqiang; Gao, Yang; Yuan, Xi; Fan, Dongli

    2015-01-01

    Background A large number of clinical studies have reported that the different materials used in breast implants were a possible cause of the different incidence rates of capsular contracture observed in patients after implantation. However, this theory lacks comprehensive support from evidence-based medicine, and considerable controversy remains. Objectives In this study, a cumulative systematic review examined breast augmentation that used implants with textured or smooth surfaces to analyze the effects of these two types of implants on the occurrence of postoperative capsular contracture. Methods We conducted a comprehensive search of literature databases, including PubMed and EMBASE, for clinical reports on the incidence of capsular contracture after the implantation of breast prostheses. We performed a cumulative meta-analysis on the incidence of capsular contracture in order from small to large sample sizes and conducted subgroup analyses according to the prosthetic material used, the implant pocket placement, the incision type and the duration of follow-up. Relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used as the final pooled statistics. Results This meta-analysis included 16 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and two retrospective studies. The cumulative comparison of textured and smooth breast implants showed statistical significance at 2.13 (95% CI, 1.18-3.86) when the fourth study was entered into the analysis. With the inclusion of more reports, the final results indicated that smooth breast implants were more likely to be associated with capsular contracture, with statistical significance at 3.10 (95% CI, 2.23-4.33). In the subgroup analyses, the subgroups based on implant materials included the silicone implant group and the saline implant group, with significant pooled statistical levels of 4.05 (95% CI, 1.97-8.31) and 3.12 (95% CI, 2.19-4.42), respectively. According to implant pocket placement, a subglandular group and a submuscular

  2. Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability by Direct Binomial Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard......Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard...

  3. County-level cumulative environmental quality associated with cancer incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagai, Jyotsna S; Messer, Lynne C; Rappazzo, Kristen M; Gray, Christine L; Grabich, Shannon C; Lobdell, Danelle T

    2017-08-01

    Individual environmental exposures are associated with cancer development; however, environmental exposures occur simultaneously. The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) is a county-level measure of cumulative environmental exposures that occur in 5 domains. The EQI was linked to county-level annual age-adjusted cancer incidence rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program state cancer profiles. All-site cancer and the top 3 site-specific cancers for male and female subjects were considered. Incident rate differences (IRDs; annual rate difference per 100,000 persons) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using fixed-slope, random intercept multilevel linear regression models. Associations were assessed with domain-specific indices and analyses were stratified by rural/urban status. Comparing the highest quintile/poorest environmental quality with the lowest quintile/best environmental quality for overall EQI, all-site county-level cancer incidence rate was positively associated with poor environmental quality overall (IRD, 38.55; 95% CI, 29.57-47.53) and for male (IRD, 32.60; 95% CI, 16.28-48.91) and female (IRD, 30.34; 95% CI, 20.47-40.21) subjects, indicating a potential increase in cancer incidence with decreasing environmental quality. Rural/urban stratified models demonstrated positive associations comparing the highest with the lowest quintiles for all strata, except the thinly populated/rural stratum and in the metropolitan/urbanized stratum. Prostate and breast cancer demonstrated the strongest positive associations with poor environmental quality. We observed strong positive associations between the EQI and all-site cancer incidence rates, and associations differed by rural/urban status and environmental domain. Research focusing on single environmental exposures in cancer development may not address the broader environmental context in which cancers develop, and future research should address cumulative environmental

  4. Pavlovian conditioning and cumulative reinforcement rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Justin A; Patterson, Angela E; Gharaei, Saba

    2015-04-01

    In 5 experiments using delay conditioning of magazine approach with rats, reinforcement rate was varied either by manipulating the mean interval between onset of the conditioned stimulus (CS) and unconditioned stimulus (US) or by manipulating the proportion of CS presentations that ended with the US (trial-based reinforcement rate). Both manipulations influenced the acquisition of responding. In each experiment, a specific comparison was made between 2 CSs that differed in their mean CS-US interval and in their trial-based reinforcement rate, such that the cumulative reinforcement rate-the cumulative duration of the CS between reinforcements-was the same for the 2 CSs. For example, a CS reinforced on 100% of trials with a mean CS-US interval of 60 s was compared with a CS reinforced on 33% of trials and a mean duration of 20 s. Across the 5 experiments, conditioning was virtually identical for the 2 CSs with matched cumulative reinforcement rate. This was true as long as the timing of the US was unpredictable and, thus, response rates were uniform across the length of the CS. We conclude that the effects of CS-US interval and of trial-based reinforcement rate are reducible entirely to their common effect on cumulative reinforcement rate. We discuss the implications of this for rate-based, trial-based, and real-time associative models of conditioning.

  5. Cumulative Incidence of Cancer After Solid Organ Transplantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Erin C.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Segev, Dorry L.; Engels, Eric A.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND Solid organ transplantation recipients have elevated cancer incidence. Estimates of absolute cancer risk after transplantation can inform prevention and screening. METHODS The Transplant Cancer Match Study links the US transplantation registry with 14 state/regional cancer registries. The authors used nonparametric competing risk methods to estimate the cumulative incidence of cancer after transplantation for 2 periods (1987–1999 and 2000–2008). For recipients from 2000 to 2008, the 5-year cumulative incidence, stratified by organ, sex, and age at transplantation, was estimated for 6 preventable or screen-detectable cancers. For comparison, the 5-year cumulative incidence was calculated for the same cancers in the general population at representative ages using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. RESULTS Among 164,156 recipients, 8520 incident cancers were identified. The absolute cancer risk was slightly higher for recipients during the period from 2000 to 2008 than during the period from 1987 to 1999 (5-year cumulative incidence: 4.4% vs 4.2%; P =.006); this difference arose from the decreasing risk of competing events (5-year cumulative incidence of death, graft failure, or retransplantation: 26.6% vs 31.9%; P 50 years; range, 0.36%–2.22%). For recipients aged >50 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence was higher for colorectal cancer (range, 0.33%–1.94%) than for the general population at the recommended screening age (aged 50 years: range, 0.25%–0.33%). For recipients aged >50 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence was high for lung cancer among thoracic organ recipients (range, 1.16%–3.87%) and for kidney cancer among kidney recipients (range, 0.53%–0.84%). The 5-year cumulative incidence for prostate cancer and breast cancer was similar or lower in transplantation recipients than at the recommended ages of screening in the general population. CONCLUSIONS Subgroups of transplantation recipients have a high absolute risk

  6. The proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Frank; Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    We suggest an estimator for the proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks data. The key advantage of this model is that the regression parameters have the simple and useful odds ratio interpretation. The model has been considered by many authors, but it is rarely used in pr...

  7. Cumulative Incidence Association Models for Bivariate Competing Risks Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Yu; Fine, Jason P

    2012-03-01

    Association models, like frailty and copula models, are frequently used to analyze clustered survival data and evaluate within-cluster associations. The assumption of noninformative censoring is commonly applied to these models, though it may not be true in many situations. In this paper, we consider bivariate competing risk data and focus on association models specified for the bivariate cumulative incidence function (CIF), a nonparametrically identifiable quantity. Copula models are proposed which relate the bivariate CIF to its corresponding univariate CIFs, similarly to independently right censored data, and accommodate frailty models for the bivariate CIF. Two estimating equations are developed to estimate the association parameter, permitting the univariate CIFs to be estimated either parametrically or nonparametrically. Goodness-of-fit tests are presented for formally evaluating the parametric models. Both estimators perform well with moderate sample sizes in simulation studies. The practical use of the methodology is illustrated in an analysis of dementia associations.

  8. A SAS-macro for estimation of the cumulative incidence using Poisson regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waltoft, Berit Lindum

    2009-01-01

    the hazard rates, and the hazard rates are often estimated by the Cox regression. This procedure may not be suitable for large studies due to limited computer resources. Instead one uses Poisson regression, which approximates the Cox regression. Rosthøj et al. presented a SAS-macro for the estimation...... of the cumulative incidences based on the Cox regression. I present the functional form of the probabilities and variances when using piecewise constant hazard rates and a SAS-macro for the estimation using Poisson regression. The use of the macro is demonstrated through examples and compared to the macro presented...

  9. Flexible parametric modelling of cause-specific hazards to estimate cumulative incidence functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Competing risks are a common occurrence in survival analysis. They arise when a patient is at risk of more than one mutually exclusive event, such as death from different causes, and the occurrence of one of these may prevent any other event from ever happening. Methods There are two main approaches to modelling competing risks: the first is to model the cause-specific hazards and transform these to the cumulative incidence function; the second is to model directly on a transformation of the cumulative incidence function. We focus on the first approach in this paper. This paper advocates the use of the flexible parametric survival model in this competing risk framework. Results An illustrative example on the survival of breast cancer patients has shown that the flexible parametric proportional hazards model has almost perfect agreement with the Cox proportional hazards model. However, the large epidemiological data set used here shows clear evidence of non-proportional hazards. The flexible parametric model is able to adequately account for these through the incorporation of time-dependent effects. Conclusion A key advantage of using this approach is that smooth estimates of both the cause-specific hazard rates and the cumulative incidence functions can be obtained. It is also relatively easy to incorporate time-dependent effects which are commonly seen in epidemiological studies. PMID:23384310

  10. Cumulative incidence and registry validation of groin hernia repair in a 34-year nationwide cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Jakob; Liljekvist, Mads Svane; Pommergaard, Hans-Christian

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to present a nationwide cumulative incidence and an age-specific incidence rate of groin hernia repair as well as to evaluate the validity of inguinal and femoral hernia operation codes in the Danish National Patient Registry (DNPR). METHODS: All persons...... registered with inguinal hernia operations in the DNPR who had been operated for an inguinal hernia was 100% (95% CI: 96-100%) and 91.3% (95% CI: 83-96%) for femoral hernia operations. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence rate of groin hernia operations peaked at the 0-1 year age group in males and at the 3-4-year age...... group in females. Furthermore, the validation of the DNPR showed very high positive predictive values for both inguinal hernia operations and femoral hernia operations. FUNDING: none. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant....

  11. Cumulative incidence and registry validation of groin hernia repair in a 34-year nationwide cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Jakob; Liljekvist, Mads Svane; Pommergaard, Hans-Christian;

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to present a nationwide cumulative incidence and an age-specific incidence rate of groin hernia repair as well as to evaluate the validity of inguinal and femoral hernia operation codes in the Danish National Patient Registry (DNPR). METHODS: All persons...... registered with inguinal hernia operations in the DNPR who had been operated for an inguinal hernia was 100% (95% CI: 96-100%) and 91.3% (95% CI: 83-96%) for femoral hernia operations. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence rate of groin hernia operations peaked at the 0-1 year age group in males and at the 3-4-year age...... group in females. Furthermore, the validation of the DNPR showed very high positive predictive values for both inguinal hernia operations and femoral hernia operations. FUNDING: none. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant....

  12. Nonparametric Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Functions for Competing Risks Data with Missing Cause of Failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Effraimidis, Georgios; Dahl, Christian Møller

    In this paper, we develop a fully nonparametric approach for the estimation of the cumulative incidence function with Missing At Random right-censored competing risks data. We obtain results on the pointwise asymptotic normality as well as the uniform convergence rate of the proposed nonparametric...... estimator. A simulation study that serves two purposes is provided. First, it illustrates in details how to implement our proposed nonparametric estimator. Secondly, it facilitates a comparison of the nonparametric estimator to a parametric counterpart based on the estimator of Lu and Liang (2008...

  13. Analysis of sensory ratings data with cumulative link models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen; Brockhoff, Per B.

    2013-01-01

    Examples of categorical rating scales include discrete preference, liking and hedonic rating scales. Data obtained on these scales are often analyzed with normal linear regression methods or with omnibus Pearson chi2 tests. In this paper we propose to use cumulative link models that allow...... for regression methods similar to linear models while respecting the categorical nature of the observations. We describe how cumulative link models are related to the omnibus chi2 tests and how they can lead to more powerful tests in the non-replicated setting. For replicated categorical ratings data we present...... a quasi-likelihood approach and a mixed effects approach both being extensions of cumulative link models. We contrast population-average and subject-specific interpretations based on these models and discuss how different approaches lead to different tests. In replicated settings, naive tests that ignore...

  14. Cumulative Incidence of Cancer among People with AIDS in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simard, Edgar P.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Engels, Eric A.

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND As people with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) live longer due to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART, widely available since 1996), the overall burden of cancer may increase. METHODS A population-based record linkage study identified cancers in 472,378 people with AIDS (1980–2006). Using non-parametric competing risk methods, we estimated cumulative incidence of cancer across 3 calendar periods (AIDS onset in 1980–1989, 1990–1995, and 1996–2006). RESULTS Measured at 5-years after AIDS onset, cumulative incidence of AIDS-defining cancer (ADC) declined sharply across AIDS calendar periods (from 18% in 1980–1989, to 11% in 1990–1995, to 4.2% in 1996–2006 [i.e., HAART era]). Cumulative incidence of Kaposi sarcoma declined from 14.3% during 1980–1989 to 6.7% during 1990–1995 to 1.8% during 1996–2006. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) cumulative incidence declined from 3.8% during 1990–1995 to 2.2% during 1996–2006; during the HAART era, NHL was the commonest (53%) ADC. Cumulative incidence of non-AIDS-defining cancer (NADC) increased from 1.1% to 1.5% with no change thereafter (1.0%, 1996–2006), in part due to declines in competing mortality. However, cumulative incidence increased steadily over time for specific NADCs (anal cancer, Hodgkin lymphoma, and liver cancer). Lung cancer cumulative incidence increased from 0.14% during 1980–1989 to 0.32% during 1990–1995, with no change thereafter. CONCLUSIONS We noted dramatically declining cumulative incidence of 2 major ADCs (Kaposi sarcoma and NHL) and increases in some NADCs (specifically cancers of the anus, liver, and lung, and Hodgkin lymphoma). As HIV/AIDS is increasingly managed as a chronic disease, greater attention should be focused on cancer screening and prevention. PMID:20960504

  15. Idiot Savants: Rate of Incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, A. Lewis

    1977-01-01

    A survey of 300 public residential facilities for the mentally retarded revealed a .06 percent incidence rate for idiot savants, persons of low intelligence who possess an unusually high skill in some special task. (CL)

  16. Decreasing incidence rates of bacteremia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Stig Lønberg; Pedersen, C; Jensen, T G

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have shown that the incidence rate of bacteremia has been increasing over time. However, few studies have distinguished between community-acquired, healthcare-associated and nosocomial bacteremia. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study among adults with first......-time bacteremia in Funen County, Denmark, during 2000-2008 (N = 7786). We reported mean and annual incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years), overall and by place of acquisition. Trends were estimated using a Poisson regression model. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate was 215.7, including 99.0 for community......-acquired, 50.0 for healthcare-associated and 66.7 for nosocomial bacteremia. During 2000-2008, the overall incidence rate decreased by 23.3% from 254.1 to 198.8 (3.3% annually, p bacteremia decreased by 25.6% from 119.0 to 93.8 (3.7% annually, p

  17. Two year cumulative incidence of trunk abnormalities in a schoolpopulation in Rotterdam, the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.A.J.M. Hazebroek-Kampschreur (Alice); A. Hofman (Albert); A. van Dijk (Ad); B. van Linge (Bert)

    1995-01-01

    textabstractWe conducted a study of the 2 year cumulative incidence of trunk abnormalities in a cohort of 3,071 11 year old children (1,621 boys, 1,450 girls). The following data were recorded: height, weight, signs of puberty and menarche. Trunk abnormality was assessed in the erect child

  18. Two year cumulative incidence of trunk abnormalities in a schoolpopulation in Rotterdam, the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.A.J.M. Hazebroek-Kampschreur (Alice); A. Hofman (Albert); A. van Dijk (Ad); B. van Linge (Bert)

    1995-01-01

    textabstractWe conducted a study of the 2 year cumulative incidence of trunk abnormalities in a cohort of 3,071 11 year old children (1,621 boys, 1,450 girls). The following data were recorded: height, weight, signs of puberty and menarche. Trunk abnormality was assessed in the erect child (asymmetr

  19. Cumulative incidence of childhood autism: a total population study of better accuracy and precision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honda, Hideo; Shimizu, Yasuo; Imai, Miho; Nitto, Yukari

    2005-01-01

    Most studies on the frequency of autism have had methodological problems. Most notable of these have been differences in diagnostic criteria between studies, degree of cases overlooked by the initial screening, and type of measurement. This study aimed to replicate the first report on childhood autism to address cumulative incidence as well as prevalence, as defined in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th revision (ICD-10) Diagnostic Criteria for Research. Here, the same methodological accuracy (exactness of a measurement to the true value) as the first study was used, but population size was four times larger to achieve greater precision (reduction of random error). A community-oriented system of early detection and early intervention for developmental disorders was established in the northern part of Yokohama, Japan. The city's routine health checkup for 18-month-old children served as the initial mass screening, and all facilities that provided child care services aimed to detect all cases of childhood autism and refer them to the Yokohama Rehabilitation Center. Cumulative incidence up to age 5 years was calculated for childhood autism among a birth cohort from four successive years (1988 to 1991). Cumulative incidence of childhood autism was 27.2 per 10000. Cumulative incidences by sex were 38.4 per 10000 in males, and 15.5 per 10000 in females. The male:female ratio was 2.5:1. The proportions of children with high-functioning autism who had Binet IQs of 70 and over and those with Binet IQs of 85 and over were 25.3% and 13.7% respectively. Data on cumulative incidence of childhood autism derived from this study are the first to be drawn from an accurate, as well as precise, screening methodology.

  20. The seven-year cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Young-Kyun; Kim, Bum-Su; Yun, Pil-Young; Mun, Sang-Un; Yi, Yang-Jin; Jeong, Kyung-In

    2014-01-01

    Objectives This study was performed to analyze the cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants (Osstem Implant Co., Ltd.) over a seven-year period. Materials and Methods A total of 105 patients who had 467 Osstem implants that were placed at the Section of Dentistry, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital (Seongnam, Korea) from June 2003 through December 2005 were analyzed. The life table method and a cross-tubulation analysis, log rank test were used to evaluate the survival curve and the influence that the prognostic factors. The prognostic factors, i.e., age and gender of patients, diameter and length, type of implants, bone graft history and loading time were determined with a Cox proportional hazard model based on logistic regression analysis. Results The seven-year cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants was 95.37%. The Cox proportional hazard model revealed that the following factors had a significant influence on survival rate; increased diameter, reduced prosthetic loading period and performance of bone grafting. Conclusion The osstem implants showed satisfactory results over the seven-year study period. PMID:24868503

  1. Constrained parametric model for simultaneous inference of two cumulative incidence functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Haiwen; Cheng, Yu; Jeong, Jong-Hyeon

    2013-01-01

    We propose a parametric regression model for the cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) commonly used for competing risks data. The model adopts a modified logistic model as the baseline CIF and a generalized odds-rate model for covariate effects, and it explicitly takes into account the constraint that a subject with any given prognostic factors should eventually fail from one of the causes such that the asymptotes of the CIFs should add up to one. This constraint intrinsically holds in a nonparametric analysis without covariates, but is easily overlooked in a semiparametric or parametric regression setting. We hence model the CIF from the primary cause assuming the generalized odds-rate transformation and the modified logistic function as the baseline CIF. Under the additivity constraint, the covariate effects on the competing cause are modeled by a function of the asymptote of the baseline distribution and the covariate effects on the primary cause. The inference procedure is straightforward by using the standard maximum likelihood theory. We demonstrate desirable finite-sample performance of our model by simulation studies in comparison with existing methods. Its practical utility is illustrated in an analysis of a breast cancer dataset to assess the treatment effect of tamoxifen, adjusting for age and initial pathological tumor size, on breast cancer recurrence that is subject to dependent censoring by second primary cancers and deaths.

  2. Covariate adjustment of cumulative incidence functions for competing risks data using inverse probability of treatment weighting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Anke; Billionnet, Cécile

    2016-06-01

    In observational studies without random assignment of the treatment, the unadjusted comparison between treatment groups may be misleading due to confounding. One method to adjust for measured confounders is inverse probability of treatment weighting. This method can also be used in the analysis of time to event data with competing risks. Competing risks arise if for some individuals the event of interest is precluded by a different type of event occurring before, or if only the earliest of several times to event, corresponding to different event types, is observed or is of interest. In the presence of competing risks, time to event data are often characterized by cumulative incidence functions, one for each event type of interest. We describe the use of inverse probability of treatment weighting to create adjusted cumulative incidence functions. This method is equivalent to direct standardization when the weight model is saturated. No assumptions about the form of the cumulative incidence functions are required. The method allows studying associations between treatment and the different types of event under study, while focusing on the earliest event only. We present a SAS macro implementing this method and we provide a worked example.

  3. Cumulative Incidence of Osteochondritis Dissecans of the Capitellum in Child and Adolescent Baseball Players

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwame, Toshiyuki; Matsuura, Tetsuya; Suzue, Naoto; Sairyo, Koichi

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Prevalence of osteochondritis dissecans (OCD) of the capitellum is high among individuals who have played baseball since childhood. Recently two cross-sectional studies according to prevalence of OCD have been published. In a study of 1040 baseball players aged 10 to 12 years, Matsuura et al found that 2.1% of players had OCD, with no differences in prevalence according to age or player position. Kida et al., in their study of 2433 baseball players aged 12 to 18 years, found OCD in 3.4% of subjects. Furthermore, they found that players with OCD began playing baseball at earlier ages, had played for longer periods, and had experienced more elbow pain. The player’s current baseball position may not be related to the existence of OCD lesions. Together, these findings led us to examine the longitudinal study for examining the risk factors for occurrence of OCD. Our objectives were to determine (1) cumulative incidence rates of OCD in the school child players aged 6-11 years old, (2) the relative risk of OCD by age, beginning age playing baseball, playing period, experimental hours per week, playing position, and elbow pain. Methods: A total of 1,275 players aged 6-11 years (mean, 9.4 years) belonged to youth baseball teams without OCD lesions received examination in the next year and were the subjects of this investigation. Subjects were examined by questionnaire, and ultrasonographic and radiographic examination. Questionnaire items included age, player position, beginning age of playing baseball, playing period of baseball, number of training hours per week and history of elbow pain. Ultrasonography of the lateral aspect of the elbow was performed. An irregularity of the subchondral bone of the capitellum was regarded as an abnormality. Radiographic examination was recommended to players who had an abnormal finding on ultrasonographic examination. We investigated the following risk factors for occurrence of OCD: age, player position, beginning age of

  4. The dependence of cumulative 238U(n,f) fission yield on incident-neutron energy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Na; ZHONG Chunlai; MA Liyong; CHEN Zhongjing; LI Xiangqing; LIU Tingjin; CHEN Jinxiang; FAN Tieshuan

    2009-01-01

    This work is aim at studying the dependence of fission yields on incident neutron energy,so as to produce evaluated yield sets of the energy dependence.Experimental data at different neutron energies for gas fission products 85m,87,88Kr and 138Xe resulting from the 238U(n,f) reaction are processed using codes AVERAGE for weighed average and ZOTT for simultaneous evaluation.Energy dependence of the cumulative fission product yields on the incident neutron is presented.The evaluated curve of product yield is compared with the results calculated by the TALYS-0.64 code.The present evaluation is consistent with other main libraries in error permission.The fit curve of 87,88Kr can be recommended to predict the unmeasured fission yields.Comparisons of the evaluated energy dependence curves with theoretical calculated results show that the predictions using purely theoretical model for the fission process are not sufficiently accurate and reliable for the calculations of the cumulative fission yields for the 238U(n,f).

  5. Cholesteatoma in Danish children - A national study of changes in the incidence rate over 34 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Djurhuus, Bjarki Ditlev; Skytthe, Axel; Christensen, Kaare;

    2015-01-01

    was examined using Poisson regression analysis, while the cumulative incidence proportion was estimated using life-tables. RESULTS: A total of 5850 cases of surgically treated middle ear cholesteatoma distributed among 3874 children aged 0-15 years were identified. From 1977 to 2002 the age...... of 5.4% (95% CI 3.2-7.5%). Age-specific incidence rates were at maximum around the age of 9 years during the whole period. The estimated cumulative incidence proportion at age 16 years based on the 2010 age-specific incidence rates was 0.16% (95% CI 0.09-0.32%) compared with 0.20% (95% CI 0...

  6. [Rate of incidence of divorce in birth cohorts classified by age difference between married couples].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajita, E; Iki, M; Fukui, M; Ogata, A; Takayama, S; Yamazaki, K; Ooida, T; Yajima, T

    1990-08-01

    We examined the situation concerning divorce in Japan from the view-point of age difference between married couples using vital statistics from the year 1952 to 1985. Annual and cumulative divorce rates were introduced as rate of incidence of divorce. We studied these indices by age difference between couples in birth cohorts of husbands. Our conclusions were as follows: 1) The cumulative divorce rate was lower in early birth cohorts than in late birth cohorts. 2) The cumulative divorce rate for young adult couples (aged 20-30) was higher than that for middle-aged couples (aged more than 30) in every cohort. 3) The cumulative divorce rate was lowest when husbands were 1 to 4 years older than wives. This tendency was quite similar in different ages and cohorts. 4) The same conclusions were reached when the annual divorce rate was substituted for the cumulative divorce rate.

  7. Cumulative incidence of youth obesity is associated with low cardiorespiratory fitness levels and with maternal overweight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anelise Reis Gaya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This longitudinal study evaluated the association between the incidence of youth overweight/obesity (Ow/Ob and low levels of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF over 4 years and youths' and their parents' demographic and nutritional characteristics. The randomized sample comprised 398 youth, aged 7-17 years at baseline, from a city in southern Brazil. Subjects were classified as being Ow/Ob according to international body mass index (BMI parameters. Parental weight and height were determined by direct questioning. Youth CRF was measured by a 9-minute walk-and-run test. The cumulative incidences of Ow/Ob and of low CRF levels were 25.1% and 20.5%, respectively. Relative to other youth, youth who were classified as "unhealthy" at baseline (with respect to CRF and by the fourth year were more likely to be classified as Ow/Ob (relative risks: 1.12 and 1.10, respectively. Youth whose mothers were categorized as Ow/Ob were at higher risk of being classified as Ow/Ob than youth whose mothers had normal BMIs (relative risks: 1.19 at baseline and 1.20 in the fourth year. The incidence of Ow/Ob among the former youth was associated with low CRF levels and with maternal Ob.

  8. Women's alcohol consumption and cumulative incidence of live birth following in vitro fertilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodge, L E; Missmer, S A; Thornton, K L; Hacker, M R

    2017-07-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the effect of alcohol consumption on outcomes among women undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF). This study is a retrospective cohort study. This study was performed in a private academically affiliated IVF center. Patients included women presenting for their first IVF cycle from July 2004 through October 2012. Women completed self-administered questionnaires before their first IVF cycle, which included report of usual alcohol consumption. Women were categorized as non-drinkers, social drinkers, or daily drinkers, as well as by the number of drinks consumed per week. Competing risks analysis was used to calculate the cumulative incidence of live birth after 6 cycles stratified by alcohol consumption. Main outcome measures included spontaneous abortion, clinical pregnancy, and live birth following IVF. There were 591 (27.7%) non-drinkers, 1466 (68.7%) social drinkers, and 77 (3.6%) daily drinkers (total n = 2134). In the first cycle, compared to non-drinkers, daily drinkers had a twofold increased risk of spontaneous abortion (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 2.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-4.5) among all cycle starts, and while their risk of live birth was 30% lower (aRR 0.7; 95% CI 0.4-1.3), the sample size was small, and it was not significantly lower. By the end of 6 cycles, social drinkers and daily drinkers did not differ from non-drinkers in their cumulative incidence of live birth (56.1, 50.6, and 52.1%, respectively; both P ≥ 0.28). There was a trend towards lower risk of live birth among daily drinkers. Daily drinkers had an increased risk of spontaneous abortion in the first cycle, but the number of daily drinkers was small.

  9. Ten-year cumulative incidence of diabetic retinopathy. The Beijing Eye Study 2001/2011.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Xu

    Full Text Available To assess the cumulative 10-year incidence of diabetic retinopathy (DR and its associated factors in a population living in Greater Beijing.The population-based longitudinal Beijing Eye Study, which included 4439 subjects (age in 2001: 40+years in 2001, was repeated in 2011 with 2695 subjects participating (66.4% of the survivors. The study participants underwent a detailed ophthalmic examination. Fundus photographs were examined for the new development of DR.After excluding individuals with DR at baseline (n = 87 or no sufficient fundus photographs in 2011 (n = 6, the study included 2602 subjects with a mean age of 64.6±9.7 years (median: 64.0 years; range: 50 to 93 years. In the 10-year period, 109 subjects (39 men developed new DR with an incidence of 4.2% (95% confidence interval (CI: 3.45,5.03. In multiple logistic regression analysis, incident DR was significantly associated with higher HbA1c value (P<0.001; Odds Ratio (OR: 1.73; 95% Confidence Interval (CI: 1.35,2.21, longer duration of diabetes mellitus (P<0.001; OR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.10,1.22, higher serum concentration of creatinine (P = 0.02; OR: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.002,1.022, lower educational level (P = 0.049; OR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.55,0.99, higher estimated cerebrospinal fluid pressure (P = 0.038; OR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.01,1.22, and shorter axial length (P<0.001; OR: 0.48; 95% CI: 0.33,0.71.The cumulative 10-year incidence (mean: 4.2% of DR in a North Chinese population was significantly associated with a higher HbA1c value, longer known duration of diabetes mellitus, higher estimated CSFP and shorter axial length (P<0.001. Shorter axial length (or hyperopia and, potentially, higher CSFP may be additional risk factors to be taken into account when counseling and treating patients with diabetes mellitus.

  10. Comparison of competing risks models based on cumulative incidence function in analyzing time to cardiovascular diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dianatkhah, Minoo; Rahgozar, Mehdi; Talaei, Mohammad; Karimloua, Masoud; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Oveisgharan, Shahram; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal

    2014-01-01

    Competing risks arise when the subject is exposed to more than one cause of failure. Data consists of the time that the subject failed and an indicator of which risk caused the subject to fail. With three approaches consisting of Fine and Gray, binomial, and pseudo-value, all of which are directly based on cumulative incidence function, cardiovascular disease data of the Isfahan Cohort Study were analyzed. Validity of proportionality assumption for these approaches is the basis for selecting appropriate models. Such as for the Fine and Gray model, establishing proportionality assumption is necessary. In the binomial approach, a parametric, non-parametric, or semi-parametric model was offered according to validity of assumption. However, pseudo-value approaches do not need to establish proportionality. Following fitting the models to data, slight differences in parameters and variances estimates were seen among models. This showed that semi-parametric multiplicative model and the two models based on pseudo-value approach could be used for fitting this kind of data. We would recommend considering the use of competing risk models instead of normal survival methods when subjects are exposed to more than one cause of failure.

  11. Flexible parametric modelling of the cause-specific cumulative incidence function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Paul C; Wilkes, Sally R; Crowther, Michael J

    2016-12-22

    Competing risks arise with time-to-event data when individuals are at risk of more than one type of event and the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of all other events. A useful measure with competing risks is the cause-specific cumulative incidence function (CIF), which gives the probability of experiencing a particular event as a function of follow-up time, accounting for the fact that some individuals may have a competing event. When modelling the cause-specific CIF, the most common model is a semi-parametric proportional subhazards model. In this paper, we propose the use of flexible parametric survival models to directly model the cause-specific CIF where the effect of follow-up time is modelled using restricted cubic splines. The models provide smooth estimates of the cause-specific CIF with the important advantage that the approach is easily extended to model time-dependent effects. The models can be fitted using standard survival analysis tools by a combination of data expansion and introducing time-dependent weights. Various link functions are available that allow modelling on different scales and have proportional subhazards, proportional odds and relative absolute risks as particular cases. We conduct a simulation study to evaluate how well the spline functions approximate subhazard functions with complex shapes. The methods are illustrated using data from the European Blood and Marrow Transplantation Registry showing excellent agreement between parametric estimates of the cause-specific CIF and those obtained from a semi-parametric model. We also fit models relaxing the proportional subhazards assumption using alternative link functions and/or including time-dependent effects. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Cumulative clinical pregnancy rates after COH and IUI in subfertile couples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farhi, Jacob; Orvieto, Raoul

    2010-07-01

    To evaluate the influence of female age and cause of infertility on the outcome of controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) and intrauterine insemination (IUI), we studied 2717 COH cycles in 1035 subfertile couples. The cumulative clinical pregnancy rates were 39% and 58% after three and six COH cycles, respectively. The cumulative pregnancy rate significantly decreased with maternal age and differed by cause of infertility. The cumulative pregnancy rate continued to increase with an increase in COH cycle number up to the third, or forth cycle, in patients with mechanical and combined infertility, respectively, and in up to the second cycle in patients aged 40 years or more. These findings provide treatment guidelines for clinicians in determining the likelihood of treatment success and the point at which to proceed to the next treatment strategy.

  13. Cumulative incidence of postoperative severe pain at Hospital Universitario San Jose, Popayan. Preliminar report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid Muñoz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Postoperative pain remains as a problem. National studies report incidences of 31% for moderate and 22% for severe pain. Inadequate analgesia is related to dissatisfaction and adverse outcomes. The aim of this study was to describe the incidence and characteristics of the postoperative pain in the post-anesthesia care unit (PACU at Hospital Universitario San José of Popayán (HUSJ in patients undergoing general anesthesia during the first postoperative hour. Methods: Cohort study. We recruited patients attending PACU and undergoing procedures using general anesthesia, between 18 and 70 years. Using a standardized collection form medical history, demographic data, medical history, anesthetic management, intraoperative analgesia and postoperative pain assessment by verbal and numerical pain scale (1-10 were recorded. Postoperative outcome data were also collected in the PACU. Results: The incidence of severe postoperative pain at 10 minutes was 12.3% 95%CI [7.1-18.2] (19 patients. Within 30 minutes of assessment 4.5% 95%CI [1.3-8.4] (7 patients and 1.9% 60 minutes 95%CI [0-4.5] (3 patients. 48.7% required rescue analgesic at PACU. Incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV was significantly different in patients requiring rescue analgesic. Conclusion: The incidence of severe postoperative pain in the first postoperative hour at HUSJ is close to 12% and it decreases as time goes by. Patients requiring rescue analgesic have a higher incidence of postoperative complications such as PONV.

  14. Prevalence and cumulative incidence of abnormal cervical cytology among HIV-infected Thai women: a 5.5-year retrospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thamkhantho Manopchai

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cervical cancer is one of the most common AIDS-related malignancies in Thailand. To prevent cervical cancer, The US Public Health Service and The Infectious Disease Society of America have recommended that all HIV-infected women should obtain 2 Pap smears 6 months apart after the initial HIV diagnosis and, if results of both are normal, should undergo annual cytological screening. However, there has been no evidence in supporting whether this guideline is appropriate in all settings - especially in areas where HIV-infected women are living in resource-constrained condition. Methods To determine the appropriate interval of Pap smear screenings for HIV-infected Thai women and risk factors for subsequent abnormal cervical cytology, we assessed the prevalence, cumulative incidence and associated factors of cervical cell abnormalities (atypical squamous cell of undetermined significance or higher grades, ASCUS+ among this group of patients. Results The prevalence of ASCUS+ was 15.4% at the first visit, and the cumulative incidence of ASCUS+ gradually increased to 37% in the first 3.5 years of follow-up appointments (first 7 times, and tended to plateau in the last 2 years. For multivariate correlation analysis, women with a CD4 count P = 0.043. There were no associations of subsequent ASCUS+ with age, pregnancy, contraceptive method, highly active anti-retroviral treatment, assumed duration of infection, or the CD4 count nadir level. Conclusion There are high prevalence and cumulative incidence of ASCUS+ in HIV-infected Thai women. With a high lost-to-follow-up rate, an appropriate interval of Pap smear screening cannot be concluded from the present study. Nevertheless, the HIV-infected Thai women may require more than two normal semi-annual Pap smears before shifting to routinely annual cytologic screening.

  15. Cumulative incidence of infertility in a New Zealand birth cohort to age 38 by sex and the relationship with family formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Roode, Thea; Dickson, Nigel Patrick; Righarts, Alida Antoinette; Gillett, Wayne Richard

    2015-04-01

    To estimate the cumulative incidence of infertility for men and women in a population-based sample. Longitudinal study of a birth cohort. Research unit. A population-based birth cohort of 1,037 men and women born in Dunedin, New Zealand, between 1972 and 1973. None. Cumulative incidence of infertility by age 32 and 38, distribution of causes and service use for infertility, live birth subsequent to infertility, and live birth by age 38. The cumulative incidence of infertility by age 38 ranged from 14.4% to 21.8% for men and from 15.2% to 26.0% for women depending on the infertility definition and data used. Infertility, defined as having tried to conceive for 12 months or more or having sought medical help to conceive, was experienced by 21.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.7-26.2) of men and 26.0% (95% CI, 21.8-30.6) of women by age 38. For those who experienced infertility, 59.8% (95% CI, 48.3-70.4) of men and 71.8% (95% CI, 62.1-80.3) of women eventually had a live birth. Successful resolution of infertility and entry into parenthood by age 38 were much lower for those who first experienced infertility in their mid to late thirties compared with at a younger age. Comparison of reports from two assessments in this cohort study suggests infertility estimates from a single cross-sectional study may underestimate lifetime infertility. The lower rate of resolution and entry into parenthood for those first experiencing infertility in their mid to late thirties highlights the consequences of postponing parenthood and could result in involuntary childlessness and fewer children than desired. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Cumulative Incidence of Graft Infection after Primary Prosthetic Aortic Reconstruction in the Endovascular Era

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berger, P.; Vaartjes, I.; Moll, F. L.; De Borst, G. J.; Blankensteijn, J. D.; Bots, M. L.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The introduction of endovascular techniques has had a major impact on the case mix of patients that undergo open aortic reconstruction. Hypothetically, this may also have increased the incidence of aortic graft infection (AGO. The aim of this study was to report on the short and mid-term

  17. Lead-Related Genetic Loci, Cumulative Lead Exposure and Incident Coronary Heart Disease: The Normative Aging Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisskopf, Marc G.; Sparrow, David; Schwartz, Joel; Hu, Howard; Park, Sung Kyun

    2016-01-01

    Background Cumulative exposure to lead is associated with cardiovascular outcomes. Polymorphisms in the δ-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase (ALAD), hemochromatosis (HFE), heme oxygenase-1 (HMOX1), vitamin D receptor (VDR), glutathione S-transferase (GST) supergene family (GSTP1, GSTT1, GSTM1), apolipoprotein E (APOE),angiotensin II receptor-1 (AGTR1) and angiotensinogen (AGT) genes, are believed to alter toxicokinetics and/or toxicodynamics of lead. Objectives We assessed possible effect modification by genetic polymorphisms in ALAD, HFE, HMOX1, VDR, GSTP1, GSTT1, GSTM1, APOE, AGTR1 and AGT individually and as the genetic risk score (GRS) on the association between cumulative lead exposure and incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events. Methods We used K-shell-X-ray fluorescence to measure bone lead levels. GRS was calculated on the basis of 22 lead-related loci. We constructed Cox proportional hazard models to compute adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident CHD. We applied inverse probability weighting to account for potential selection bias due to recruitment into the bone lead sub-study. Results Significant effect modification was found by VDR, HMOX1, GSTP1, APOE, and AGT genetic polymorphisms when evaluated individually. Further, the bone lead-CHD associations became larger as GRS increases. After adjusting for potential confounders, a HR of CHD was 2.27 (95%CI: 1.50–3.42) with 2-fold increase in patella lead levels, among participants in the top tertile of GRS. We also detected an increasing trend in HRs across tertiles of GRS (p-trend = 0.0063). Conclusions Our findings suggest that lead-related loci as a whole may play an important role in susceptibility to lead-related CHD risk. These findings need to be validated in a separate cohort containing bone lead, lead-related genetic loci and incident CHD data. PMID:27584680

  18. Meta-analysis for aggregated survival data with competing risks: a parametric approach using cumulative incidence functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonofiglio, Federico; Beyersmann, Jan; Schumacher, Martin; Koller, Michael; Schwarzer, Guido

    2016-09-01

    Meta-analysis of a survival endpoint is typically based on the pooling of hazard ratios (HRs). If competing risks occur, the HRs may lose translation into changes of survival probability. The cumulative incidence functions (CIFs), the expected proportion of cause-specific events over time, re-connect the cause-specific hazards (CSHs) to the probability of each event type. We use CIF ratios to measure treatment effect on each event type. To retrieve information on aggregated, typically poorly reported, competing risks data, we assume constant CSHs. Next, we develop methods to pool CIF ratios across studies. The procedure computes pooled HRs alongside and checks the influence of follow-up time on the analysis. We apply the method to a medical example, showing that follow-up duration is relevant both for pooled cause-specific HRs and CIF ratios. Moreover, if all-cause hazard and follow-up time are large enough, CIF ratios may reveal additional information about the effect of treatment on the cumulative probability of each event type. Finally, to improve the usefulness of such analysis, better reporting of competing risks data is needed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Gallbladder Cancer Incidence and Death Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... with a poor outcome, often death. The journal Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention published a CDC study looking ... cancer incidence and mortality, United States, 1999–2011. Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention 2015. More Information Gallbladder Cancer ( ...

  20. Higher cumulative revision rate of knee arthroplasties in younger patients with osteoarthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrysson, Ola L A; Robertsson, Otto; Nayfeh, Jamal F

    2004-04-01

    This study was designed to test the hypothesis that younger patients treated for osteoarthritis and similar conditions using total knee arthroplasty and unicompartmental knee arthroplasty have a lower implant survival rate when compared with older patients. Previous studies have been done on a small number of patients and only included the younger patients. In many cases patients treated for rheumatoid arthritis have been included in the studies and exceptional survival rates have been reported. The current study compared the cumulative revision rate of the components in 33,251 patients older than 60 years and 2606 patients younger than 60 years treated with total knee arthroplasty or unicompartmental knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis or similar conditions. Cox regression was used to compare the risk for revision between the two age groups and between gender and the effect of year of operation. The results showed a higher cumulative revision rate for the group of younger patients in all statistical analyses and the risk ratio for revision was significantly lower for the group of older patients. The risk for revision decreased for both groups when considering the year of surgery. This is probably attributable to better implant components and surgical techniques.

  1. Incidence and frequency rates of childhood cancer in Namibia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    calculated incidence and frequency rates from the data obtained ... incidence of childhood cancer recorded in Namibia was lower than the ... Tumours of the central nervous system occurred .... clinical, laboratory and radiological investigation.

  2. Electrochemical Meaning of Cumulative Corrosion Rate for Reinforced Concrete in a Tropical Natural Marine Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Castro-Borges

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to discuss the meaning of cumulative corrosion rate (iCCR of reinforced concrete in a tropical marine microclimate of the Yucatan Peninsula identifying four stages that correspond to passivation, beginning of depassivation, breakdown and formation of subsequent corrosion layers, and nucleation and development of cracks. Sixty Portland cement concrete cylinders were exposed in a tropical marine environment at 50 m from the seashore. One-half of the samples had a reinforcing bar embedded at the center of the sample (corrosion measurements and the other half was made with plain concrete (chloride measurements. Five water/cement (w/c ratios and three times of curing (CT were tested representing the common practices of this region. The corrosion rate was monitored using the linear polarization resistance technique (Rp which enables calculating the apparent and cumulative corrosion rate. Representative results indicated that iCCR was effective not only to detect the beginning and duration of the reported stages but also to find the right influence of CT and w/c ratios on the corrosion performance of reinforced concrete.

  3. Hunter-gatherer inter-band interaction rates: implications for cumulative culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim R Hill

    Full Text Available Our species exhibits spectacular success due to cumulative culture. While cognitive evolution of social learning mechanisms may be partially responsible for adaptive human culture, features of early human social structure may also play a role by increasing the number potential models from which to learn innovations. We present interview data on interactions between same-sex adult dyads of Ache and Hadza hunter-gatherers living in multiple distinct residential bands (20 Ache bands; 42 Hadza bands; 1201 dyads throughout a tribal home range. Results show high probabilities (5%-29% per year of cultural and cooperative interactions between randomly chosen adults. Multiple regression suggests that ritual relationships increase interaction rates more than kinship, and that affinal kin interact more often than dyads with no relationship. These may be important features of human sociality. Finally, yearly interaction rates along with survival data allow us to estimate expected lifetime partners for a variety of social activities, and compare those to chimpanzees. Hadza and Ache men are estimated to observe over 300 men making tools in a lifetime, whereas male chimpanzees interact with only about 20 other males in a lifetime. High intergroup interaction rates in ancestral humans may have promoted the evolution of cumulative culture.

  4. Hunter-gatherer inter-band interaction rates: implications for cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Kim R; Wood, Brian M; Baggio, Jacopo; Hurtado, A Magdalena; Boyd, Robert T

    2014-01-01

    Our species exhibits spectacular success due to cumulative culture. While cognitive evolution of social learning mechanisms may be partially responsible for adaptive human culture, features of early human social structure may also play a role by increasing the number potential models from which to learn innovations. We present interview data on interactions between same-sex adult dyads of Ache and Hadza hunter-gatherers living in multiple distinct residential bands (20 Ache bands; 42 Hadza bands; 1201 dyads) throughout a tribal home range. Results show high probabilities (5%-29% per year) of cultural and cooperative interactions between randomly chosen adults. Multiple regression suggests that ritual relationships increase interaction rates more than kinship, and that affinal kin interact more often than dyads with no relationship. These may be important features of human sociality. Finally, yearly interaction rates along with survival data allow us to estimate expected lifetime partners for a variety of social activities, and compare those to chimpanzees. Hadza and Ache men are estimated to observe over 300 men making tools in a lifetime, whereas male chimpanzees interact with only about 20 other males in a lifetime. High intergroup interaction rates in ancestral humans may have promoted the evolution of cumulative culture.

  5. Methodological choices affect cancer incidence rates: a cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Hannah L Brooke; Talbäck, Mats; Feychting, Maria; Ljung, Rickard

    2017-01-01

    Background Incidence rates are fundamental to epidemiology, but their magnitude and interpretation depend on methodological choices. We aimed to examine the extent to which the definition of the study population affects cancer incidence rates. Methods All primary cancer diagnoses in Sweden between 1958 and 2010 were identified from the national Cancer Register. Age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates of 29 cancer subtypes between 2000 and 2010 were calculated using four definitions ...

  6. Prevalence, Cumulative Incidence, Monotherapy and Combination Therapy, and Treatment Duration of Frequently Prescribed Psychoactive Medications in the Netherlands : Retrospective Database Analysis for the Years 2000 to 2005

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ravera, Silvia; Visser, Sipke T.; de Gier, Johan J.; den Berg, Lolkje T. W. de Jong-van

    2010-01-01

    Background: Psychoactive drugs have been reported to impair daily activities (eg, driving), but data regarding the use of such drugs in the Netherlands are lacking. Objective: The aim of this work was to examine the prevalence, cumulative incidence, use of monotherapy and combination therapy, and tr

  7. Exploring the risk factors for differences in the cumulative incidence of coeliac disease in two neighboring countries : the prospective DIABIMMUNE study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simre, Kärt; Uibo, Oivi; Peet, Aleksandr; Tillmann, Vallo; Kool, Pille; Hämäläinen, Anu-Maaria; Härkönen, Taina; Siljander, Heli; Virtanen, Suvi; Ilonen, Jorma; Knip, Mikael; Uibo, Raivo; Harmsen, Hermie J.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: During the last several decades the prevalence of coeliac disease (CD) has increased worldwide. AIM: To compare the cumulative incidence of CD between Estonian and Finnish children and to identify the risk factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Children were recruited as part of the DIABIMMUNE

  8. A nationwide study of asthma incidence rate and its determinants in Swedish pre-school children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bröms, Kristina; Norbäck, Dan; Sundelin, Claes; Eriksson, Margaretha; Svärdsudd, Kurt

    2012-09-01

    While many studies on asthma prevalence have been published, the number of studies on asthma incidence in pre-school children is limited. In this project, a nationwide sample of pre-school children was followed with the aim of estimating cumulative 5-year asthma incidence and its determinants. Parents of 5,886 children 1-6 years of age, sampled from day-care centres in 62 municipalities all over Sweden, responded in 2002 to a baseline postal questionnaire with questions regarding symptoms indicating possible asthma or atopic conditions, and a number of other variables. In 2007, parents of 4,255 children responded to an almost identical follow-up questionnaire. Of these, the 3,715 children who were free from asthma at baseline constitute the study population for this report. A large number of potential baseline determinants for cumulative 5-year asthma incidence were identified. Of these, food allergy, rhinitis, incomplete asthma diagnosis criteria (wheezing last 12 months, and ever had asthma but no current symptoms), parental rhinitis, parental asthma, age, and eczema, in ranking order of importance, remained significant in multivariate logistic regression analysis. The asthma incidence rate was highly dependent on presence or absence of these variables, the average annual rate ranging from 2/1,000/year in 6-year-olds with no determinants to 154/1,000/year in 1-year-olds with all determinants, corresponding to 11/1,000/year based on the whole study population.

  9. Decreased tuberculosis incidence and declining clustered case rates, Madrid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iñigo, Jesús; Arce, Araceli; Palenque, Elia; García de Viedma, Darío; Chaves, Fernando

    2008-10-01

    To determine effect of recent tuberculosis transmission rates on incidence rates, we conducted 2 prospective population-based molecular epidemiologic studies in Madrid during 1997-1999 (4% immigrants) and 2002-2004 (14.9% immigrants). Case rates decreased in association with declining clustered case rates among Spanish-born persons. New strains were introduced through immigration.

  10. Cumulative live-birth rate in women with polycystic ovary syndrome or isolated polycystic ovaries undergoing in-vitro fertilisation treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hang Wun Raymond; Lee, Vivian Chi Yan; Lau, Estella Yee Lan; Yeung, William Shu Biu; Ho, Pak Chung; Ng, Ernest Hung Yu

    2014-02-01

    This retrospective cohort study evaluated the cumulative live birth rate in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and isolated polycystic ovaries (PCO) undergoing in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatment. We studied 104 women with PCOS, 184 with PCO and 576 age-matched controls undergoing the first IVF treatment cycle between 2002 and 2009. The main outcome measure was cumulative live birth in the fresh plus all the frozen embryo transfers combined after the same stimulation cycle. Women in both the PCOS (n = 104) and isolated PCO groups (n = 184) had higher ovarian response parameters compared to age-matched controls (n = 576), and higher rates of withholding fresh embryo transfer for risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS). The actual incidence of moderate to severe OHSS was significantly higher in the PCOS (11.5 %) but not the isolated PCO group (8.2%) compared to controls (4.9%). The live birth rates in the fresh cycle were comparable among the 3 groups, but the PCOS group had a significantly higher miscarriage rate compared to the other 2 groups. Cumulative live birth rate was significantly higher in the isolated PCO group (60.3%), but not the PCOS group (50.0%), compared to controls (47.5%). Women in the isolated PCO group, but not the PCOS group, had a significantly higher cumulative live birth rate compared to controls. This could be explained by the quantitative effect of the higher number of transferable embryos obtained per stimulation cycle, which is uncompromised by the unfavourable embryo competence otherwise observed in PCOS.

  11. First Principles Modeling of Nonlinear Incidence Rates in Seasonal Epidemics

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we used a general stochastic processes framework to derive from first principles the incidence rate function that characterizes epidemic models. We investigate a particular case, the Liu-Hethcote-van den Driessche's (LHD) incidence rate function, which results from modeling the number of successful transmission encounters as a pure birth process. This derivation also takes into account heterogeneity in the population with regard to the per individual transmission probability. We...

  12. First principles modeling of nonlinear incidence rates in seasonal epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José M Ponciano

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we used a general stochastic processes framework to derive from first principles the incidence rate function that characterizes epidemic models. We investigate a particular case, the Liu-Hethcote-van den Driessche's (LHD incidence rate function, which results from modeling the number of successful transmission encounters as a pure birth process. This derivation also takes into account heterogeneity in the population with regard to the per individual transmission probability. We adjusted a deterministic SIRS model with both the classical and the LHD incidence rate functions to time series of the number of children infected with syncytial respiratory virus in Banjul, Gambia and Turku, Finland. We also adjusted a deterministic SEIR model with both incidence rate functions to the famous measles data sets from the UK cities of London and Birmingham. Two lines of evidence supported our conclusion that the model with the LHD incidence rate may very well be a better description of the seasonal epidemic processes studied here. First, our model was repeatedly selected as best according to two different information criteria and two different likelihood formulations. The second line of evidence is qualitative in nature: contrary to what the SIRS model with classical incidence rate predicts, the solution of the deterministic SIRS model with LHD incidence rate will reach either the disease free equilibrium or the endemic equilibrium depending on the initial conditions. These findings along with computer intensive simulations of the models' Poincaré map with environmental stochasticity contributed to attain a clear separation of the roles of the environmental forcing and the mechanics of the disease transmission in shaping seasonal epidemics dynamics.

  13. First principles modeling of nonlinear incidence rates in seasonal epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponciano, José M; Capistrán, Marcos A

    2011-02-01

    In this paper we used a general stochastic processes framework to derive from first principles the incidence rate function that characterizes epidemic models. We investigate a particular case, the Liu-Hethcote-van den Driessche's (LHD) incidence rate function, which results from modeling the number of successful transmission encounters as a pure birth process. This derivation also takes into account heterogeneity in the population with regard to the per individual transmission probability. We adjusted a deterministic SIRS model with both the classical and the LHD incidence rate functions to time series of the number of children infected with syncytial respiratory virus in Banjul, Gambia and Turku, Finland. We also adjusted a deterministic SEIR model with both incidence rate functions to the famous measles data sets from the UK cities of London and Birmingham. Two lines of evidence supported our conclusion that the model with the LHD incidence rate may very well be a better description of the seasonal epidemic processes studied here. First, our model was repeatedly selected as best according to two different information criteria and two different likelihood formulations. The second line of evidence is qualitative in nature: contrary to what the SIRS model with classical incidence rate predicts, the solution of the deterministic SIRS model with LHD incidence rate will reach either the disease free equilibrium or the endemic equilibrium depending on the initial conditions. These findings along with computer intensive simulations of the models' Poincaré map with environmental stochasticity contributed to attain a clear separation of the roles of the environmental forcing and the mechanics of the disease transmission in shaping seasonal epidemics dynamics.

  14. Trends in lung cancer incidence rates, Oklahoma 2005-2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana S Mowls

    Full Text Available Lung cancer is the second most frequently diagnosed cancer among men and women in the United States. With cigarette smoking causing the majority of cases, patterns in lung cancer are often monitored to understand the impact of anti-tobacco efforts. The purpose of this research was to investigate trends in lung cancer incidence rates for the period 2005-2010 in Oklahoma.Data on Oklahoma's incident cases of lung cancer (2005-2010 were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER system. Annual percent change (APC was calculated by linear regression to characterize trends in lung cancer incidence rates over time for the overall population, by gender, by age group, and by age group within gender. Rates were considered to increase or decrease if the p-value for trend was <0.05.From 2005 through 2010, lung cancer incidence rates declined from 81.96 to 68.19 per 100,000 population, with an APC of -3.58% (p-value: 0.0220. When subgroups were examined, declines were observed among all males (APC: -4.25%; p-value: 0.0270, males <65 years (APC: -5.32%; p-value: 0.0008, females <65 years (APC: -4.85%; p-value: 0.0044, and persons aged 55-64 years (APC: -6.38%; p-value: 0.0017.Declines in lung cancer incidence rates occurred during 2005-2010 among the overall population and within select demographic groups in Oklahoma. Although trends were stable for several demographic groups, rates of lung cancer incidence were lower in 2010 compared to 2005. Continued evidence-based tobacco control efforts are needed to ensure further reductions in lung cancer incidence rates in the state of Oklahoma.

  15. Do gender, disability, and morbidity affect aging rate in the LLFS? Application of indices of cumulative deficits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kulminski, Alexander M; Arbeev, Konstantin G; Christensen, Kaare

    2011-01-01

    We used an approach of cumulative deficits to evaluate the rate of aging in 4954 participants of the Long-Life Family Study (LLFS) recruited in the U.S. (Boston, New York, and Pittsburg) and Denmark. We used an array of 85 health-related deficits covering major health dimensions including...

  16. Infectious diseases and global warming: Tracking disease incidence rates globally

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Low, N.C. [Low and Associates Actuary, Cerritos, CA (United States)

    1995-09-01

    Given the increasing importance of impact of global warming on public health, there is no global database system to monitor infectious disease and disease in general, and to which global data of climate change and environmental factors, such as temperature, greenhouse gases, and human activities, e.g., coastal development, deforestation, can be calibrated, investigated and correlated. The author proposes the diseases incidence rates be adopted as the basic global measure of morbidity of infectious diseases. The importance of a correctly chosen measure of morbidity of disease is presented. The importance of choosing disease incidence rates as the measure of morbidity and the mathematical foundation of which are discussed. The author further proposes the establishment of a global database system to track the incidence rates of infectious diseases. Only such a global system can be used to calibrate and correlate other globally tracked climatic, greenhouse gases and environmental data. The infrastructure and data sources for building such a global database is discussed.

  17. Embryo quality is the main factor affecting cumulative live birth rate after elective single embryo transfer in fresh stimulation cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niinimäki, Maarit; Veleva, Zdravka; Martikainen, Hannu

    2015-11-01

    The study was aimed to evaluate which factors affect the cumulative live birth rate after elective single embryo transfer in women younger than 36 years. Additionally, number of children in women with more than one delivery per ovum pick-up after fresh elective single embryo transfer and subsequent frozen embryo transfers was assessed. Retrospective cohort study analysing data of a university hospital's infertility clinic in 2001-2010. A total of 739 IVF/ICSI cycles with elective single embryo transfer were included. Analyses were made per ovum pick-up including fresh and subsequent frozen embryo transfers. Factors affecting cumulative live birth rates were examined in uni- and multivariate analyses. A secondary endpoint was the number of children born after all treatments. In the fresh cycles, the live birth rate was 29.2% and the cumulative live birth rate was 51.3%, with a twin rate of 3.4%. In the multivariate analysis, having two (odds ratio (OR) 1.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12-2.67) or ≥3 top embryos (OR 2.66; 95% CI 1.79-3.95) was associated with higher odds for live birth after fresh and frozen embryo cycles. Age, body mass index, duration of infertility, diagnosis or total gonadotropin dose were not associated with the cumulative live birth rate. In cycles with one top embryo, the cumulative live birth rate was 40.2%, whereas it was 64.1% in those with at least three top embryos. Of women who had a live birth in the fresh cycle, 20.4% had more than one child after all frozen embryo transfers. Among women with three or more top embryos after ovum pick-up, 16.1% gave birth to more than one child. The cumulative live birth rate in this age group varies from 40% to 64% and is dependent on the quality of embryos. Women with three or more top embryos have good chance of having more than one child per ovum pick-up without elevated risk of multiple pregnancies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Epidemiology of Eating Disorders : Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smink, Frederique R. E.; van Hoeken, Daphne; Hoek, Hans W.

    2012-01-01

    Eating disorders are relatively rare among the general population. This review discusses the literature on the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of eating disorders. We searched online Medline/Pubmed, Embase and PsycINFO databases for articles published in English using several keyterms rela

  19. Epidemiology of Eating Disorders : Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smink, Frederique R. E.; van Hoeken, Daphne; Hoek, Hans W.

    Eating disorders are relatively rare among the general population. This review discusses the literature on the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of eating disorders. We searched online Medline/Pubmed, Embase and PsycINFO databases for articles published in English using several keyterms

  20. Denominator effects on traumatic occupational fatality incidence rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biddle, E A; Kisner, S M

    1998-01-01

    Each year over 6,000 workers are killed while earning a living in the United States. From these deaths, how can researchers determine if employees in the manufacturing industry are at greater risk of a traumatic occupational fatality than those employed in agriculture or any other industry? Similarly, does the risk of traumatic occupational fatality differ among states? To answer such questions, two measurements are normally used: frequency of occurrence and incidence rate. These measures are used to identify worker groups at greatest risk of fatal injury, target research and prevention activities, and evaluate the impact of these activities. Developing the best methods to accurately identify worker groups at greatest risk of losing their life while at work is always important, but even more so in times of limited government resources. The accuracy of a traumatic occupational fatality incidence rate depends on how closely the denominator and numerator represent the same population. Selecting data from different employment programs for the denominator when calculating incidence rates using the National Traumatic Occupational Fatalities surveillance system for the numerator has shown dramatically different results. This analysis points out that researchers must carefully: choose the data they employ; evaluate the meaning of calculated incidence rates; and document the data sources to ensure proper interpretation by others. Additional research and evaluation are necessary to improve data sources, analytical methods and tools to ensure effective resource allocations for the occupational safety and health field.

  1. Epidemiology of Eating Disorders : Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smink, Frederique R. E.; van Hoeken, Daphne; Hoek, Hans W.

    2012-01-01

    Eating disorders are relatively rare among the general population. This review discusses the literature on the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of eating disorders. We searched online Medline/Pubmed, Embase and PsycINFO databases for articles published in English using several keyterms rela

  2. The cumulative incidence of conventional risk factors of cardiovascular disease and their population attributable risk in an Iranian population: The Isfahan Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoumeh Sadeghi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs are the leading cause of death in Iran. The present study evaluated the 7-year incidence of CVD risk factors among the participants of Isfahan cohort study (ICS. Materials and Methods: ICS was a longitudinal study on adults over 35 years of age from the urban and rural areas in three counties in central Iran. Data on clinical examination and blood measurements were collected in 2001. Subjects were followed and similar data were collected in 2007. Cumulative incidence was calculated through dividing new cases of each risk factor by the population free of that risk factor at baseline. Incidence proportion was determined for major CVD risk factors including hypertension (HTN, hypercholesterolemia (HC, hypertriglyceridemia (HTg, obesity, diabetes mellitus (DM, metabolic syndrome (MetS, and smoking. Results: A total number of 6323 adults free of CVDs were recruited. After 7 years of follow-up, 3283 individuals were re-evaluated in 2007. The participants′ age was 49.2 ± 10.3 years in 2001 (mean ± SD. The 7-year cumulative incidence of HTN, HC, HTg, overweight, obesity, DM, MetS, and smoking was 22.8%, 37.4%, 28.0%, 26.3%, 7.4%, 9.5%, 23.9%, and 5.9% in men and 22.2%, 55.4%, 33.5%, 35.0%, 18.8%, 11.3%, 36.1%, and 0.7% in women, respectively. Among those with overweight or obesity, 14.7% of men and 7.9% of women decreased their weight up to the normal level. Conclusions: The present study revealed a high incidence of CVD risk factors especially dyslipidemia, obesity, MetS and HTN. Therefore, the application of life-style modification interventions seems necessary.

  3. Estimation of current cumulative incidence of leukaemia-free patients and current leukaemia-free survival in chronic myeloid leukaemia in the era of modern pharmacotherapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trněný Marek

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The current situation in the treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML presents a new challenge for attempts to measure the therapeutic results, as the CML patients can experience multiple leukaemia-free periods during the course of their treatment. Traditional measures of treatment efficacy such as leukaemia-free survival and cumulative incidence are unable to cope with multiple events in time, e.g. disease remissions or progressions, and as such are inappropriate for the efficacy assessment of the recent CML treatment. Methods Standard nonparametric statistical methods are used for estimating two principal characteristics of the current CML treatment: the probability of being alive and leukaemia-free in time after CML therapy initiation, denoted as the current cumulative incidence of leukaemia-free patients; and the probability that a patient is alive and in any leukaemia-free period in time after achieving the first leukaemia-free period on the CML treatment, denoted as the current leukaemia-free survival. The validity of the proposed methods is further documented in the data of the Czech CML patients consecutively recorded between July 2003 and July 2009 as well as in simulated data. Results The results have shown a difference between the estimates of the current cumulative incidence function and the common cumulative incidence of leukaemia-free patients, as well as between the estimates of the current leukaemia-free survival and the common leukaemia-free survival. Regarding the currently available follow-up period, both differences have reached the maximum (12.8% and 20.8%, respectively at 3 years after the start of follow-up, i.e. after the CML therapy initiation in the former case and after the first achievement of the disease remission in the latter. Conclusions Two quantities for the evaluation of the efficacy of current CML therapy that may be estimated with standard nonparametric methods have been proposed in

  4. Cumulative dosages of antipsychotic drugs are associated with increased mortality rate in patients with Alzheimer's dementia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, R E; Lolk, A; Valentin, J B;

    2016-01-01

    mortality: more than 0 Daily Defined Dosage (DDDs) but less than 90: HR 2.20, 95% CI (2.14-2.27), P DDDs but less than 365: HR 1.81, 95% CI (1.74-1.89), P DDDs but less than 730: HR 1.38, 95% CI (1.428-1.49), P ... or equal to 730 DDDs: HR 1.06, 95% CI (0.95-1.18), P = 0.322, when controlling for proxy markers of severity, somatic and mental comorbid disorders. CONCLUSION: In this nationwide cohort study of 45 894 patients diagnosed with Alzheimer's dementia, we found that cumulative dosages of antipsychotic drugs...

  5. Cumulative teen birth rates among girls in foster care at age 17: an analysis of linked birth and child protection records from California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam-Hornstein, Emily; King, Bryn

    2014-04-01

    This study used linked foster care and birth records to provide a longitudinal, population-level examination of the incidence of first and repeat births among girls who were in foster care at age 17. Girls in a foster care placement in California at the age of 17 between 2003 and 2007 were identified from statewide child protection records. These records were probabilistically matched to vital birth records spanning the period from 2001 to 2010. Linked data were used to estimate the cumulative percentage of girls who had given birth before age 20. Birth rates and unadjusted risk ratios were generated to characterize foster care experiences correlated with heightened teen birth rates. Between 2003 and 2007 in California, there were 20,222 girls in foster care at age 17. Overall, 11.4% had a first birth before age 18. The cumulative percentage who gave birth before age 20 was 28.1%. Among girls who had a first birth before age 18, 41.2% had a repeat teen birth. Significant variations by race/ethnicity and placement-related characteristics emerged. Expanded data and rigorous research are needed to evaluate prevention efforts and ensure parenting teens are provided with the needed services and supports.

  6. Colorectal cancer incidence rates have decreased in central Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocetti, Emanuele; Buzzoni, Carlotta; Zappa, Marco

    2010-11-01

    We analyzed colorectal cancer incidence data from the Tuscany Cancer Registry, central Italy, for the period 1985-2005. We carried out a trend analysis through a Joinpoint regression analysis, and summarized trends as annual percent change (APC) of the standardized (European standard) rates. Colorectal incidence rates increased until 1996 (APC=+1.4, 95% CI: 0.8-1.9), then decreased significantly (APC=-1.1, 95% CI: -0.8 to -0.4). The change was detected as statistically significant in the age group of 54+ years. Among younger individuals, we observed an increasing incidence until 2003. In the same geographical area, a colorectal screening programme has been active from 1982; it was initially based on guaiac faecal occult blood testing (GFOBT) and on immunological testing (IFOBT) since the mid 1990s. The decline in colorectal cancer incidence since 1996, in the whole population and especially among individuals older than 54 years, may suggest the effect of FOBT screening in terms of precancerous polyps removal.

  7. Carcinoma in the Remnant Stomach During Long-Term Follow-up After Distal Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer: Analysis of Cumulative Incidence and Associated Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanyu, Takaaki; Wakai, Atsuhiro; Ishikawa, Takashi; Ichikawa, Hiroshi; Kameyama, Hitoshi; Wakai, Toshifumi

    2017-09-18

    The number of patients with remnant gastric cancer following resection of gastric cancer may increase. The aims of this study were to investigate the development of remnant gastric cancer after distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer and to examine its cumulative incidence, clinicopathological characteristics, and risk factors. We examined 437 patients with relapse-free survival for 5 years or more after distal gastrectomy with Billroth I reconstruction for gastric cancer performed between 1985 and 2005. A total of 17 patients suffered from remnant gastric cancer. The cumulative incidence was 3.7% at 10 years and 5.4% at 20 years. The median time until development of remnant gastric cancer was 79 months (range 30-209 months). The presence of synchronous multiple gastric cancers was a significant independent risk factor for remnant gastric cancer (hazard ratio 4.036; 95% confidence interval 1.478-11.02; P = 0.006). Of the 17 patients, the 13 whose remnant gastric cancer was detected via regular endoscopy showed better prognoses than the patients detected by other means (P gastric cancer was 5.4% at 20 years. In particular, patients who had multiple gastric cancers at initial gastrectomy were at higher risk for remnant gastric cancer. Therefore, long-term endoscopic surveillance is important.

  8. Second primary tumours after a squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity or oropharynx using the cumulative incidence method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Haring, I. S.; Schaapveld, M. S.; Roodenburg, J. L. N.; de Bock, G. H.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to define the incidence of second primary tumours (SPTs) after treatment of a first primary oral or oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and to define patient groups with an increased or decreased risk of developing SPT with adjustment for competing risks. Cancer reg

  9. Incidence trends and mortality rates of gastric cancer in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavy, Ron; Kapiev, Andronik; Poluksht, Natan; Halevy, Ariel; Keinan-Boker, Lital

    2013-04-01

    Gastric cancer is the fourth most common malignancy worldwide. The incidence trends and mortality rates of gastric cancer in Israel have not been studied in depth. The aim of our study was to try and investigate the aforementioned issues in Israel in different ethnic groups. This retrospective study is based on the data of The Israel National Cancer Registry and The Central Bureau of Statistics. Published data from these two institutes were collected, summarized, and analyzed in this study. Around 650 new cases of gastric cancer are diagnosed yearly in Israel. While we noticed a decline during the period 1990-2007 in the incidence in the Jewish population (13.6-8.9 and 6.75-5.42 cases per 100,000 in Jewish men and women, respectively), an increase in the Arab population was noticed (7.7-10.2 and 3.7-4.2 cases per 100,000 in men and women, respectively). Age-adjusted mortality rates per 10,000 cases of gastric cancer decreased significantly, from 7.21 in 1990 to 5.46 in 2007, in the total population. The 5-year relative survival showed a slight increase for both men and women. There is a difference in the incidence and outcome of gastric cancer between the Jewish and Arab populations in Israel. The grim prognosis of gastric cancer patients in Israel is probably due to the advanced stage at which gastric cancer is diagnosed in Israel.

  10. Effect of vitamin B supplementation on cancer incidence, death due to cancer, and total mortality: A PRISMA-compliant cumulative meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Sui-Liang; Chen, Ting-Song; Ma, Chen-Yun; Meng, Yong-Bin; Zhang, Yu-Fei; Chen, Yi-Wei; Zhou, Yu-Hao

    2016-08-01

    Observational studies have suggested that vitamin B supplementation is associated with cancer risk, but this association remains controversial. A pooled data-based meta-analysis was conducted to summarize the evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the effects of vitamin B supplementation on cancer incidence, death due to cancer, and total mortality. PubMed, EmBase, and the Cochrane Library databases were searched to identify trials to fit our analysis through August 2015. Relative risk (RR) was used to measure the effect of vitamin B supplementation on the risk of cancer incidence, death due to cancer, and total mortality using a random-effect model. Cumulative meta-analysis, sensitivity analysis, subgroup analysis, heterogeneity tests, and tests for publication bias were also conducted. Eighteen RCTs reporting the data on 74,498 individuals were included in the meta-analysis. Sixteen of these trials included 4103 cases of cancer; in 6 trials, 731 cancer-related deaths occurred; and in 15 trials, 7046 deaths occurred. Vitamin B supplementation had little or no effect on the incidence of cancer (RR: 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98-1.10; P = 0.216), death due to cancer (RR, 1.05; 95% CI: 0.90-1.22; P = 0.521), and total mortality (RR, 1.00; 95% CI: 0.94-1.06; P = 0.952). Upon performing a cumulative meta-analysis for cancer incidence, death due to cancer, and total mortality, the nonsignificance of the effect of vitamin B persisted. With respect to specific types of cancer, vitamin B supplementation significantly reduced the risk of skin melanoma (RR, 0.47; 95% CI: 0.23-0.94; P = 0.032). Vitamin B supplementation does not have an effect on cancer incidence, death due to cancer, or total mortality. It is associated with a lower risk of skin melanoma, but has no effect on other cancers.

  11. The cumulative incidence of atopic dermatitis in the first 12 months among Chinese, Vietnamese, and Caucasian infants born in Melbourne, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mar, A; Tam, M; Jolley, D; Marks, R

    1999-04-01

    Atopic dermatitis (AD), a disease with both inherited and environmental components determining its clinical expression, has been reported to be more frequent in people of Asian origin. Our purpose was to compare the 12-month cumulative incidence of AD in Caucasian, Chinese, and Vietnamese babies born in Australia. Sixty-two Caucasian, 61 Chinese, and 59 Vietnamese babies born in Melbourne, Australia were examined soon after birth and then followed up for 12 months to assess the frequency of AD. Parental education, employment history, and housing conditions were also recorded. AD developed in 21% of Caucasians, 44% of Chinese, and 17% of Vietnamese infants. Parents of the Chinese and Caucasian infants had similar socioeconomic and housing conditions compared with the parents of the Vietnamese infants, who tended to be of lower socioeconomic status with communal housing and lack of plush-pile carpeting. The high incidence of AD in Chinese compared with Caucasian infants tends to reflect genetic differences between the two populations, whereas the difference in incidence between the Chinese and Vietnamese infants possibly reflects more the environmental contribution to disease expression.

  12. Incidence rates of enterovirus 71 infections in young children during a nationwide epidemic in Taiwan, 2008-09.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Shi Lee

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Enterovirus 71 (EV71 is causing life-threatening outbreaks in tropical Asia. In Taiwan and other tropical Asian countries, although nationwide EV71 epidemics occur cyclically, age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infections that are critical to estimate disease burden and design vaccine trials are not clear. A nationwide EV71 epidemic occurred in 2008-09 in Taiwan, which provided a unique opportunity to estimate age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infections. STUDY DESIGN: We prospectively recruited 749 healthy neonates and conducted follow-ups from June 2006 to December 2009. Sera were obtained from participants at 0, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months of age for measuring EV71 neutralizing antibody titers. If the participants developed suspected enterovirus illnesses, throat swabs were collected for virus isolation. RESULTS: We detected 28 EV71 infections including 20 symptomatic and 8 asymptomatic infections. Age-specific incidence rates of EV71 infection increased from 1.71 per 100 person-years at 0-6 months of age to 4.09, 5.74, and 4.97 per 100 person-years at 7-12, 13-24, and 25-36 months of age, respectively. Cumulative incidence rate was 15.15 per 100 persons by 36 months of age, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of EV71 infections in Taiwan increased after 6 months of age during EV71 epidemics. The cumulative incidence rate was 15% by 36 months of age, and 29% of EV71 infections were asymptomatic in young children.

  13. A prospective study of gynecological cancer risk in relation to adiposity factors: cumulative incidence and association with plasma adipokine levels.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meei-Maan Wu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Associations of obesity and obesity-related metabolic factors (adiposity factors with uterine corpus cancer (UCC and ovarian cancer (OVC risk have been described. Still, a cause-effect relationship and the underlying mediators remain unclear, particularly for low-incidence populations. We aimed to prospectively determine whether adiposity factors could predict the development of UCC and OVC in Taiwanese women. To explore the biological mediators linking adiposity factors to cancer risk, we examined the association of two adipokines, leptin and adiponectin, with the gynecological cancers. METHODS: Totally, 11,258 women, aged 30-65, were recruited into the Community-Based Cancer Screening Program (CBCSP study during 1991-1993, and were followed for UCC and OVC cases until December 31, 2011. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs. Adiposity factors and risk covariates were assessed at recruitment. Newly-developed cancer cases were determined from data in the government's National Cancer Registry and Death Certification System. For adipokienes study, a nested case-control study was conducted within the cohort. Baseline plasma samples of 40 incident gynecological cancer cases and 240 age-menopause-matched controls were assayed for adipokines levels. FINDINGS: There were 38 and 30 incident cases of UCC and OVC, respectively, diagnosed during a median 19.9 years of follow-up. Multivariate analysis showed that alcohol intake (HR = 16.00, 95%  = 4.83-53.00, high triglyceride levels (HR = 2.58, 95% = 1.28-5.17, and years of endogenous estrogen exposure per 5-year increment (HR = 1.91, 95%  = 1.08-3.38 were associated with increased UCC risk. High body mass index (BMI ≥ 27 kg/m(2, HR = 2.90, 95%  = 1.30-6.46 was associated with increased OVC risk. Analysis further showed an independent effect of adipokines on UCC and OVC risk after adjustment of the risk covariates. CONCLUSION: We provided evidence

  14. Cumulative incidence for wait-list death in relation to length of queue for coronary-artery bypass grafting: a cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Levy Adrian R

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In deciding where to undergo coronary-artery bypass grafting, the length of surgical wait lists is often the only information available to cardiologists and their patients. Our objective was to compare the cumulative incidence for death on the wait list according to the length of wait lists at the time of registration for the operation. Methods The study cohort included 8966 patients who registered to undergo isolated coronary-artery bypass grafting (82.4% men; 71.9% semi-urgent; 22.4% non-urgent. The patients were categorized according to wait-list clearance time at registration: either "1 month or less" or "more than 1 month". Cumulative incidence for wait-list death was compared between the groups, and the significance of difference was tested by means of regression models. Results Urgent patients never registered on a wait list with a clearance time of more than 1 month. Semi-urgent patients registered on shorter wait lists more often than non-urgent patients (79.1% vs. 44.7%. In semi-urgent and non-urgent patients, the observed proportion of wait-list deaths by 52 weeks was lower in category "1 month or less" than in category "more than 1 month" (0.8% [49 deaths] vs. 1.6% [39 deaths], P P Conclusion Long wait lists for coronary-artery bypass grafting are associated with increased probability that a patient dies before surgery. Physicians who advise patients where to undergo cardiac revascularization should consider the risk of pre-surgical death that is associated with the length of a surgical wait list.

  15. Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, K C; Fong, H F; Zee, C Y

    2014-05-01

    During the surveillance of influenza pandemics, underreported data are a public health challenge that complicates the understanding of pandemic threats and can undermine mitigation efforts. We propose a method to estimate incidence reporting rates at early stages of new influenza pandemics using 2009 pandemic H1N1 as an example. Routine surveillance data and statistics of travellers arriving from Mexico were used. Our method incorporates changes in reporting rates such as linearly increasing trends due to the enhanced surveillance. From our results, the reporting rate was estimated at 0·46% during early stages of the pandemic in Mexico. We estimated cumulative incidence in the Mexican population to be 0·7% compared to 0·003% reported by officials in Mexico at the end of April. This method could be useful in estimation of actual cases during new influenza pandemics for policy makers to better determine appropriate control measures.

  16. Cyclosporine induces progressive attenuation of baroreceptor heart rate response and cumulative pressor response in conscious unrestrained rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaltout, Hossam A; Abdel-Rahman, Abdel A

    2003-06-01

    Cyclosporine A (CsA) use is associated with hypertension and reduced baroreceptor sensitivity (BRS), but the underlying mechanisms remain unresolved. In this study, we investigated whether CsA attenuation of BRS is 1) dependent on treatment regimen, and 2) causative of the pressor response. Furthermore, we investigated whether a reduction in plasma testosterone contributes to BRS attenuation caused by short-term CsA administration. The effects of the clinically used CsA formulation (15 mg/kg/day i.v. for 5 days) on mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate, BRS, and body weight were investigated in conscious rats. CsA caused reproducible pressor responses (15.1 +/- 3.0 mm Hg) starting after the first dose and continuing through the 5 days of the study. BRS and baseline MAP were inversely related in the CsA group because of a progressive reduction in BRS, which started on day 2 and reached approximately 50% of baseline on day 5 and a cumulative elevation in MAP. The inverse BRS and MAP responses required daily administration of CsA because neither response was evident throughout the 5-day observation period after a single dose of CsA. Plasma testosterone levels were similar in all groups, whereas the body weight decreased approximately 10% in the CsA group on day 5. These findings suggest 1) CsA attenuation of BRS is relatively rapid and cumulative; 2) the attenuation of BRS may contribute to the delayed, but not to the acute, pressor elicited by CsA; and 3) the cumulative reduction in BRS caused by short-term (5-day) CsA treatment is not testosterone-related.

  17. Rate of Dehydration and Cumulative Desiccation Stress Interacted to Modulate Desiccation Tolerance of Recalcitrant Cocoa and Ginkgo Embryonic Tissues1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yongheng; Sun, Wendell Q.

    2002-01-01

    Rate of dehydration greatly affects desiccation tolerance of recalcitrant seeds. This effect is presumably related to two different stress vectors: direct mechanical or physical stress because of the loss of water and physicochemical damage of tissues as a result of metabolic alterations during drying. The present study proposed a new theoretic approach to represent these two types of stresses and investigated how seed tissues responded differently to two stress vectors, using the models of isolated cocoa (Theobroma cacao) and ginkgo (Ginkgo biloba) embryonic tissues dehydrated under various drying conditions. This approach used the differential change in axis water potential (ΔΨ/Δt) to quantify rate of dehydration and the intensity of direct physical stress experienced by embryonic tissues during desiccation. Physicochemical effect of drying was expressed by cumulative desiccation stress [∫\\documentclass[10pt]{article} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\pagestyle{empty} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} \\begin{equation*}{\\mathrm{_{o}^{t}}}\\end{equation*}\\end{document}f(ψ,t)], a function of both the rate and time of dehydration. Rapid dehydration increased the sensitivity of embryonic tissues to desiccation as indicated by high critical water contents, below which desiccation damage occurred. Cumulative desiccation stress increased sharply under slow drying conditions, which was also detrimental to embryonic tissues. This quantitative analysis of the stress-time-response relationship helps to understand the physiological basis for the existence of an optimal dehydration rate, with which maximum desiccation tolerance could be achieved. The established numerical analysis model will prove valuable for the design of experiments that aim to elucidate biochemical and physiological mechanisms of desiccation tolerance. PMID:11950981

  18. Cumulative live birth rate after GnRH agonist trigger and elective cryopreservation of all embryos in high responders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlaisavljević, Veljko; Kovačič, Borut; Knez, Jure

    2017-07-01

    Elective embryo cryopreservation after using gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonist protocols and GnRH agonist triggering is becoming an increasingly important part of medically assisted reproduction. We designed a single-centre retrospective study to assess the cumulative probability of achieving a live birth through consecutive transfers of vitrified-warmed blastocysts after elective embryo cryopreservation in high-responding patients. Hence, 123 women identified to be at high risk for developing ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome were included. They were stimulated using GnRH antagonist protocol, and GnRH agonist was used to trigger final oocyte maturation. All embryos were vitrified at the blastocyst stage and transferred in the subsequent menstrual cycles. Using the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, a total of 65.9% (95% CI 57.5 to 74.3) women achieved a live birth after a maximum of six embryo transfer cycles using the 'conservative' approach. Applying the 'optimistic' approach, presuming that women who still had cryopreserved embryos and did not return for embryo transfer had the same chance of achieving a live birth as those returning for transfer, the cumulative live birth rate estimated in six embryo transfer cycles was 76.6% (95% CI 69.1 to 84.1). No cases of severe ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome were recorded. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  19. Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitzer, Virginia E; Viboud, Cécile; Lopman, Ben A; Patel, Manish M; Parashar, Umesh D; Grenfell, Bryan T

    2011-11-07

    Rotavirus is a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and yet the dynamics of rotavirus in such settings are poorly understood. Rotavirus is typically less seasonal in the tropics, although recent observational studies have challenged the universality of this pattern. While numerous studies have examined the association between environmental factors and rotavirus incidence, here we explore the role of intrinsic factors. By fitting a mathematical model of rotavirus transmission dynamics to published age distributions of cases from 15 countries, we obtain estimates of local transmission rates. Model-predicted patterns of seasonal incidence based solely on differences in birth rates and transmission rates are significantly correlated with those observed (Spearman's ρ = 0.65, p rates and transmission rates and explore how vaccination may impact these patterns. Our results suggest that the relative lack of rotavirus seasonality observed in many tropical countries may be due to the high birth rates and transmission rates typical of developing countries rather than being driven primarily by environmental conditions. While vaccination is expected to decrease the overall burden of disease, it may increase the degree of seasonal variation in the incidence of rotavirus in some settings.

  20. Incidence rate of injuries during sport activity and physical exercise in a rural Swedish municipality: incidence rates in 17 sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Loës, M; Goldie, I

    1988-12-01

    A prospective study of acute injuries from sports and physical exercise was carried out during 1 year in a total population of a municipality with 31,620 inhabitants. Data on exposure were collected: the number of participants in each sport, the hours of participation, and number of weeks in the season per year. The number of injuries was used as numerator and the exposure data as denominator in a formula modified from Chambers for the calculation of population at risk in sports. A total of 571 injuries occurred in 28 different sports: 65% of the injured were males. The majority of the injuries were from soccer: 50% of the males and 27% of the females. Incidence rates in 17 sports are presented. The ranking order differs, when calculating not only the number, but also the exposure. Ice hockey and handball were then found to have the highest risk followed by soccer. Team and contact sports on the whole had the highest rates in both genders. As a group, intercompany players had the highest rate, especially in soccer. The lowest rates were found in individual sports such as downhill skiing, horseback riding, racket sports, and running. Gymnastics, except in school physical education, had no injuries at all. Sprains and strains were diagnosed in nearly half of the cases and the foot and ankle were the most frequent sites. Preventive measures are proposed.

  1. Remobilization Rates and Cumulative Contributions of Floodplains and Legacy Sediments from Piedmont Tributaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, A. J.; Donovan, M.; Baker, M. E.; Gellis, A.

    2014-12-01

    The disparity between watershed erosion rates and downstream sediment delivery has been an important theme in geomorphology for many decades, with the role of floodplains in sediment storage as a frequent focus. In the Piedmont province of the eastern US, post-settlement upland deforestation and agricultural land use led to accumulation of thick packages of overbank sediment ("legacy deposits") in valley bottoms. Previous authors have argued that legacy sediment is a potentially important source of sediment being remobilized by lateral migration of channels. We seek to address 1) How rapidly sediment is remobilized from floodplains by channel migration and bank erosion, 2) the proportion of streambank sediment derived from legacy sediment, and 3) the potential contributions of net stream bank erosion and legacy sediments to downstream sediment yields within the Piedmont of Baltimore County, Maryland. We measured gross erosion and deposition rates over 45 years within the fluvial corridor along 30 valley segments from 18 watersheds with drainage areas between 0.18 and 155 km2 by comparing channel and floodplain morphology from LiDAR-based digital elevation data collected in 2005 with channel positions recorded on 1:2400-scale topographic maps from 1959-1961. Measured deposition within channel and point bars accounted for an average of 46% (28-75%) of gross erosion, with deposition increasingly important in larger drainages. Legacy sediments accounted for 6-90% of bank erosion at individual study segments, represented about 60% of bank height at most exposures, and accounted for 57% of the measured gross erosion. Extrapolating the results indicated that first- and second-order streams account for 62% of total stream bank erosion from northern Baltimore County. After accounting for estimated redeposition, extrapolated net stream bank sediment yields (72 Mg/km2/yr) are equivalent to 70% of average Piedmont watershed yield (104 Mg/km2/yr) cited in studies by previous

  2. Serum progesterone elevation adversely affects cumulative live birth rate in different ovarian responders during in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer: a large retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bu, Zhiqin; Zhao, Feifei; Wang, Keyan; Guo, Yihong; Su, Yingchun; Zhai, Jun; Sun, Yingpu

    2014-01-01

    In order to explore the relationship between serum progesterone (P) level on the day of human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG) administration and cumulative live birth rate in patients with different ovarian response during in vitro fertilization (IVF), we carried out this retrospective cohort study including a total of 4,651 patients undergoing their first IVF cycles from January 2011 to December 2012. All patients with a final live birth outcome (4,332 patients) were divided into three groups according to ovarian response: poor ovarian responder (≤5 oocytes, 785 patients), intermediate ovarian responder (6-19 oocytes, 3065 patients) and high ovarian responder (≥20 oocytes, 482 patients). The thresholds for serum P elevation were 1.60 ng/ml, 2.24 ng/ml, and 2.50 ng/ml for poor, intermediate, and high ovarian responders, respectively. Cumulative live birth rate per oocyte retrieval cycle was calculated in each group. The relationship between serum P level and cumulative live birth rate was evaluated by both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Cumulative live birth rate per oocyte retrieval cycle was inversely associated with serum P level in patients with different ovarian response. For all responders, patients with elevated P level had significantly higher number of oocytes retrieved, but lower high quality embryo rate, and lower cumulative live birth rate compared with patients with normal serum P level. In addition, serum P level adversely affected cumulative live birth rate by both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, independent of ovarian response. Serum P elevation on the day of HCG administration adversely affects cumulative live birth rate per oocyte retrieval cycle in patients with different ovarian response.

  3. Cumulative increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus with increasing triglyceride glucose index in normal-weight people: The Rural Chinese Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ming; Wang, Bingyuan; Liu, Yu; Sun, Xizhuo; Luo, Xinping; Wang, Chongjian; Li, Linlin; Zhang, Lu; Ren, Yongcheng; Zhao, Yang; Zhou, Junmei; Han, Chengyi; Zhao, Jingzhi; Hu, Dongsheng

    2017-03-01

    Risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increased in metabolically obese but normal-weight people. However, we have limited knowledge of how to prevent T2DM in normal-weight people. We aimed to evaluate the association between triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and incident T2DM among normal-weight people in rural China. We included data from 5706 people with normal body mass index (BMI) (18.5-23.9 kg/m(2)) without baseline T2DM in a rural Chinese cohort followed for a median of 6.0 years. A Cox proportional-hazard model was used to assess the risk of incident T2DM by quartiles of TyG index and difference in TyG index between follow-up and baseline (TyG-D), estimating hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A generalized additive plot was used to show the nonparametric smoothed exposure-response association between risk of T2DM and TyG index as a continuous variable. TyG was calculated as ln [fasting triglyceride level (mg/dl) × fasting plasma glucose level (mg/dl)/2]. Risk of incident T2DM was increased with quartiles 2, 3 and 4 versus quartile 1 of TyG index (adjusted HR [aHR] 2.48 [95% CI 1.20-5.11], 3.77 [1.83-7.79], and 5.30 [2.21-12.71], P trend Risk of incident T2DM was increased with quartile 4 versus quartile 1 of TyG-D (aHR 3.91 [2.22-6.87]). The results were consistent when analyses were restricted to participants without baseline metabolic syndrome and impaired fasting glucose level. The generalized additive plot showed cumulative increased risk of T2DM with increasing TyG index. Risk of incident T2DM is increased with increasing TyG index among rural Chinese people, so the index might be an important indicator for identifying people at high risk of T2DM.

  4. Using Marginal Structural Modeling to Estimate the Cumulative Impact of an Unconditional Tax Credit on Self-Rated Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pega, Frank; Blakely, Tony; Glymour, M Maria; Carter, Kristie N; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2016-02-15

    In previous studies, researchers estimated short-term relationships between financial credits and health outcomes using conventional regression analyses, but they did not account for time-varying confounders affected by prior treatment (CAPTs) or the credits' cumulative impacts over time. In this study, we examined the association between total number of years of receiving New Zealand's Family Tax Credit (FTC) and self-rated health (SRH) in 6,900 working-age parents using 7 waves of New Zealand longitudinal data (2002-2009). We conducted conventional linear regression analyses, both unadjusted and adjusted for time-invariant and time-varying confounders measured at baseline, and fitted marginal structural models (MSMs) that more fully adjusted for confounders, including CAPTs. Of all participants, 5.1%-6.8% received the FTC for 1-3 years and 1.8%-3.6% for 4-7 years. In unadjusted and adjusted conventional regression analyses, each additional year of receiving the FTC was associated with 0.033 (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.047, -0.019) and 0.026 (95% CI: -0.041, -0.010) units worse SRH (on a 5-unit scale). In the MSMs, the average causal treatment effect also reflected a small decrease in SRH (unstabilized weights: β = -0.039 unit, 95% CI: -0.058, -0.020; stabilized weights: β = -0.031 unit, 95% CI: -0.050, -0.007). Cumulatively receiving the FTC marginally reduced SRH. Conventional regression analyses and MSMs produced similar estimates, suggesting little bias from CAPTs.

  5. A comparison of surveillance methods for small incidence rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sego, Landon H.; Woodall, William H.; Reynolds, Marion R.

    2008-05-15

    A number of methods have been proposed to detect an increasing shift in the incidence rate of a rare health event, such as a congenital malformation. Among these are the Sets method, two modifcations of the Sets method, and the CUSUM method based on the Poisson distribution. We consider the situation where data are observed as a sequence of Bernoulli trials and propose the Bernoulli CUSUM chart as a desirable method for the surveillance of rare health events. We compare the performance of the Sets method and its modifcations to the Bernoulli CUSUM chart under a wide variety of circumstances. Chart design parameters were chosen to satisfy a minimax criteria.We used the steady- state average run length to measure chart performance instead of the average run length which was used in nearly all previous comparisons involving the Sets method or its modifcations. Except in a very few instances, we found that the Bernoulli CUSUM chart has better steady-state average run length performance than the Sets method and its modifcations for the extensive number of cases considered.

  6. Cumulative live birth rates following lVF in 41-to 43-year-old women presenting with favourable ovarian reserve characteristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Disseldorp, J.; Eijkemans, M. J. C.; Klinkert, E. R.; Velde, E. R. te; Fauser, B. C.; Broekmans, F. J. M.

    For women aged 41-43 years old, success rates in IVF are generally poor. This study aimed to assess cumulative live birth rate related to treatment costs over a maximum of three IVF cycles in selected women who were considered to still have adequate ovarian reserve. Fifty-five patients (38% of the

  7. High fall incidence and fracture rate in elderly dialysis patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polinder-Bos, H. A.; Emmelot-Vonk, M. H.; Gansevoort, R. T.; Diepenbroek, A.; Gaillard, C. A. J. M.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Although it is recognised that the dialysis population is ageing rapidly, geriatric complications such as falls are poorly appreciated, despite the many risk factors for falls in this population. The objective of this study was to determine the incidence, complications and risk factors f

  8. Trends of incidence and mortality rates of stroke from 1983 to 2000 in Hanzhong rural population

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    龙泳; 高保林; 张景霞; 杨军; 黄久仪; 胡继新; 徐德忠; 卢娟

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To explore the trends of incidence and mortality rates of stroke in Hanzhong rural population. Methods: Acting as the WHO MONICA project. Results: The incidence rate of stroke was 152.9/100 000. There was decline trend in male(P<0.05). The mortality rate of stroke was 115.9/100 000. There was no significant decline trend during 18-year period (P<0.05). The incidence and mortality rates of stroke of male were higher than those of female(P<0.05).The incidence and mortality rates were all increased with age(P<0.01). Conclusion: It must stick to the long- term prevention measures to decrease incidence rate, and improve the condition of medical treatment to reduce the mortality rate in rural population.

  9. Incidence rates of asthma, rhinitis and eczema symptoms and influential factors in young children in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, M.; Hagerhed-Engman, L.; Sigsgaard, T.

    2008-01-01

    period of breast-feeding. Allergic symptoms in parents were also a strong risk factor for incident asthma, as well as for rhinitis and eczema. Conclusion: When comparing incident rates of asthma between different studies it is important to realize that different definitions of the healthy baseline......Aim: To estimate the incidence rates for asthma, rhinitis and eczema symptoms and to investigate the importance of different influential factors for the incidence of these symptoms. Methods: The Dampness in Building and Health study commenced in the year 2000 in Varmland, Sweden with a parental...... study. Results: The 5-year incidence of doctor-diagnosed asthma was 4.9% (95% CI 4.3-5.3), rhinitis was 5.7% (5.0-6.4) and eczema was 13.4% (12.3-14.5). However, incidence rates strongly depend on the health status of the baseline population. Risk factors for incident asthma were male gender and short...

  10. Decreasing incidence rate for surgically treated middle ear cholesteatoma in Denmark 1977-2007

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Djurhuus, Bjarki Ditlev; Faber, Christian Emil; Skytthe, Axel

    2010-01-01

    The objective was to estimate the annual incidence rate of surgically treated middle ear cholesteatoma (STMEC) in Denmark from 1977 to 2007, taking age, gender and secular trends into consideration.......The objective was to estimate the annual incidence rate of surgically treated middle ear cholesteatoma (STMEC) in Denmark from 1977 to 2007, taking age, gender and secular trends into consideration....

  11. Cumulative High-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesion Rate and Need for Surgical Intervention of Atypical Squamous Cells of Undetermined Significance Cytology-Diagnosed Patients: A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petousis, Stamatios; Kalogiannidis, Ioannis; Margioula-Siarkou, Chrysoula; Mamopoulos, Apostolos; Mavromatidis, George; Prapas, Nikolaos; Rousso, David

    2017-01-01

    Τhe study aimed to study the rate of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) that progressed to high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HGSIL), as well as the number of patients who finally necessitated a surgical intervention during follow-up. A prospective study was conducted on patients admitted for colposcopy during 2007-2012. We exclusively included those who presented with newly ASCUS diagnosis, while patients with a history of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) were excluded. Primary end points were the cumulative rate of HGSIL during follow-up and the rate of surgical procedures performed because of such lesions. There were 134 ASCUS cases included. Overall, there were 48 (35.8%) surgical excision procedures performed to treat or eliminate HGSIL during the follow-up period. According to the final histopathology of surgical specimens, the cumulative rate of CIN2 or higher cervical lesions was 28.4% (n = 38). The cumulative rate of CIN2+ during follow-up period was almost 30% for patients with ASCUS, with the necessity for interventional treatment being even higher. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  12. Urological complications after radical hysterectomy: Incidence rates and predisposing factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Likić-Lađević Ivana

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Bacground/Aim. Radical hysterectomy is a surgical approach for stage Ib and IIa of cervical cancer. The incidence of intraoperative injuries of the bladder during radical hysterectomy ranges from 0.4-3.7%. The ureter can be crushed, caught in sutures, transsected, obstructed by angulation, or ischemic by the stippling or periureteric fascia. Vesicovaginal and ureterovaginal fistuls are reported to develop in 0.9-2% of patients after radical abdominal hysterectomy. Fistulas usually become manifested or visible at speculum examination within 14 days following the surgery. The aim of this study was to establish the incidence and predisposing factor of urological complications after radical hysterectomy. Methods. The study included a total of 536 patients with invasive stage Ib to IIb cancer of the cervix uteri who had underwent radical hysterectomy. The special elements considered were: the patient’s age; the International Federation of Ginecology and Obstetrics (FIGO stage after pathohistology; duration of operation; the result of preoperative laboratory tests for diabetes, anemia, hypoproteinemia, or disorders of liver or kidney function; ASA status; postoperative surgical infection. Results. The average age of the patients with complications was 48.68 years. All patients with intraoperative ureteric and bladder injuries had statisticaly significant higher stage of disease and operation lasted more than in others without injury. We noticed 1.3% ureteral injuries and 1.49% bladder injuries, more than 50% of the patients with a previously mentioned injuries were operated on more than 3 hours. We found 2.61% vesicovaginal and 2.43% ureterovaginal fistuls. A total of 50% of the patients with bladder injury and vesicovaginal fistuls and 70% of the patients with ureterovaginal fistuls had diabetes mellitus. Postoperative infection of surgical site is a very important factor for the development of fistule. Half of the patients with vesicovaginal

  13. Ciprofloxacin Resistance and Gonorrhea Incidence Rates in 17 Cities, United States, 1991–2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkcaldy, Robert D.; Gift, Thomas L.; Owusu-Edusei, Kwame; Weinstock, Hillard S.

    2014-01-01

    Antimicrobial drug resistance can hinder gonorrhea prevention and control efforts. In this study, we analyzed historical ciprofloxacin resistance data and gonorrhea incidence data to examine the possible effect of antimicrobial drug resistance on gonorrhea incidence at the population level. We analyzed data from the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project and city-level gonorrhea incidence rates from surveillance data for 17 cities during 1991–2006. We found a strong positive association between ciprofloxacin resistance and gonorrhea incidence rates at the city level during this period. Their association was consistent with predictions of mathematical models in which resistance to treatment can increase gonorrhea incidence rates through factors such as increased duration of infection. These findings highlight the possibility of future increases in gonorrhea incidence caused by emerging cephalosporin resistance. PMID:24655615

  14. Soft Tissue Strain Rates in Side-Blast Incidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-02

    for Human Head Impacts. Proceedings ASME Biomechanics of Human Factors Conference. [22] Hannon P, Knapp K. 2006. Forensic Biomechanics. Lawyers...J, Song, B, Pintar, F, Yoganandan N, Chen W, Gennarelli TA. 2008. How to test brain and brain simulant at ballistic and blast strain rates. Rocky

  15. Stomach cancer incidence rates among Americans, Asian Americans and Native Asians from 1988 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yeerae; Park, Jinju; Nam, Byung-Ho; Ki, Moran

    2015-01-01

    Stomach cancer is the second most common cancer in Eastern Asia, accounting for approximately 50% of all new cases of stomach cancer worldwide. Our objective was to compare the stomach cancer incidence rates of Asian Americans in Los Angeles with those of native Asians to assess the etiology of stomach cancer from 1988 to 2011. To examine these differences, Asian Americans (Korean, Japanese, Chinese, and Filipino Americans living in Los Angeles, California, USA) and native Asians (from Korea, Japan, China, and the Philippines) were selected for this study. Using the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database, stomach cancer incidence rates were examined. Data from the National Cancer Registry of Korea were used for native Koreans. Between native countries, the incidence rates in Japan, China, the Philippines, and the US declined over time, but the incidence in Korea has remained constant. The incidences among Asian immigrants were lower than those among native Asians. The incidence rates of males were approximately 2 times higher than those among females in Asian countries were. The effect of immigration on stomach cancer incidence suggests that lifestyle factors are a significant determinant of stomach cancer risk. However, the incidence in Korea remains the highest of these countries.

  16. Live Birth and Cumulative Live Birth Rates in Expected Poor Ovarian Responders Defined by the Bologna Criteria Following IVF/ICSI Treatment

    OpenAIRE

    Joyce Chai; Vivian Chi-Yan Lee; Tracy Wing-Yee Yeung; Hang Wun Raymond Li; Pak-Chung Ho; Ernest Hung-Yu Ng

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To determine the live birth and cumulative live birth rates of expected poor ovarian responders according to the Bologna criteria and to compare their outcomes with those of expected normal responders Design: Retrospective analysis Setting: University infertility clinic Patients: A total of 1,152 subfertile women undergoing their first in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycle Interventions: Women were classified into 4 groups according to the Bologna criteria for comparison Main Outcome ...

  17. Rating and Classification of Incident Reporting in Radiology in a Large Academic Medical Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansouri, Mohammad; Aran, Shima; Shaqdan, Khalid W; Abujudeh, Hani H

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide a rate of safety incident report of adverse events in a large academic radiology department and to share the various types that may occur. This is a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act compliant, institutional review board-approved study. Consent requirement was waived. All incident reports from April 2006-September 2012 were retrieved. Events were further classified as follows: diagnostic test orders, identity document or documentation or consent, safety or security or conduct, service coordination, surgery or procedure, line or tube, fall, medication or intravenous safety, employee general incident, environment or equipment, adverse drug reaction (ADR), skin or tissue, and diagnosis or treatment. Overall rates and subclassification rates were calculated. There were 10,224 incident reports and 4,324,208 radiology examinations (rate = 0.23%). The highest rates of the incident reports were due to diagnostic test orders (34.3%; 3509/10,224), followed by service coordination (12.2%; 1248/10,224) and ADR (10.3%; 1052/4,324,208). The rate of incident reporting was highest in inpatient (0.30%; 2949/970,622), followed by emergency radiology (0.22%; 1500/672,958) and outpatient (0.18%; 4957/2,680,628). Approximately 48.5% (4947/10,202) of incidents had no patient harm and did not affect the patient, followed by no patient harm, but did affect the patient (35.2%, 3589/10,202), temporary or minor patient harm (15.5%, 1584/10,202), permanent or major patient harm (0.6%, 62/10,202), and patient death (0.2%, 20/10,202). Within an academic radiology department, the rate of incident reports was only 0.23%, usually did not harm the patient, and occurred at higher rates in inpatients. The most common incident type was in the category of diagnostic test orders, followed by service coordination, and ADRs.

  18. Incidence rates of the major leukemia subtypes among US Hispanics, Blacks, and non-Hispanic Whites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matasar, Matthew J; Ritchie, Ellen K; Consedine, Nathan; Magai, Carol; Neugut, Alfred I

    2006-11-01

    While leukemia rates are thought to be lower in South and Central America, no study has systematically investigated incidence rates of the leukemia subtypes among Hispanics in the U.S. This was a retrospective cohort study, using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute, 1992 - 2001, to compare leukemia incidence rates as a function of race and ethnicity. It was found that in adults, Hispanics had lower incidence rates for each of the major types of leukemia as compared to non-Hispanic Whites: For AML, elderly Whites had an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.61 in comparison to Hispanics (p < 0.001) and 1.27 in comparison to Blacks (p < 0.001); for CML, the IRR among the elderly was 1.42 that of Hispanics (p < 0.001) and 1.22 that of Blacks (p = 0.003); and for CLL, the IRR was 2.31 times that of Hispanics (p < 0.001) and 1.48 times that of Blacks (p < 0.001). In ALL, however, Hispanics aged 0 - 19 had a significantly higher incidence rate than Whites and Blacks, with an IRR of 1.32 compared to Whites (p < 0.001), and 2.62 compared to Blacks (p < 0.001). In AML, CML, and CLL, among people age 65 or older, white non-Hispanics have higher incidence rates than Blacks, and Blacks have higher incidence rates than Hispanics. Childhood ALL incidence rates are highest among Hispanics, and lowest among Blacks.

  19. Age-adjusted cancer incidence rates by county and year, 1999-2009

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Environmental Health Tracking Program — This dataset contains age-adjusted incidence rates for 26 malignancy/age group/gender combinations for the years 1999-2009. These data are stratified by year and...

  20. Nonlinear Stability of a SIRS Epidemic Model with Convex Incidence Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buonomo, B.; Rionero, S.

    2010-09-01

    We study an epidemic model for infections with non permanent acquired immunity (SIRS). The incidence rate is assumed to be convex respect to the infective class. By using a peculiar Lyapunov function, we obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for the local nonlinear stability of equilibria. Conditions ensuring the global stability of the endemic equilibrium are also obtained. Our procedure allows to enlarge the class of incidence rates ensuring the Lyapunov nonlinear stability of the endemic equilibrium for SIRS models.

  1. Relationship of Remote Sensing Normalized Differential Vegetation Index to Anopheles Density and Malaria Incidence Rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    To study the relationship of remote sensing normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) to Anopheles density and malaria incidence rate. Methods Data of monthly average climate, environment, Anopheles density and malaria incidence rate, and remote sensing NDVI were collected from 27 townships of 10 counties in southeastern Yunnan Province from 1984 to 1993. The relationship of remote sensing ecological proxy index, NDVI, to Anopheles density and malaria incidence rate was studied by principal component analysis, factor analysis and grey correlation analysis. Results The correlation matrix showed that NDVI highly correlated with Anopheles density in 4 townships of Mengla, Jinghong, and Yuanjiang counties, but in other 23 townships the relationship was not clear. Principal component and factor analyses showed that remote sensing NDVI was the representative index of the first principal component and the first common factor of Anopheles density evaluation. Grey correlation analysis showed that in rainy season NDVI had a high grey correlation with Anopheles density and malaria incidence rate. The grey correlation analysis showed that in rainy season the grey degree of NDVI correlated with Anopheles. Minimus density was 0.730, and 0.713 with Anopheles sinensis density, and 0.800 with malarial incidence rate. Conclusion Remote sensing NDVI can serve as a sensitive evaluation index of Anopheles density and malaria incidence rate.

  2. Prostate cancer incidence rates have started to decrease in central Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocetti, Emanuele; Ciatto, Stefano; Buzzoni, Carlotta; Zappa, Marco

    2010-01-01

    The widespread use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing has dramatically changed the epidemiology of prostate cancer. Growing incidence rates have been documented in almost all western countries following the increased usage of PSA screening. In the United States after a period of huge increase in incidence, rates have decreased to values lower than those of the pre-PSA era. Similar changes have been documented also in the area of the Tuscany Cancer Registry, central Italy, where prostate cancer incidence rates doubled from the early 1990s to 2003 and afterwards decreased. This is the first evidence, to our knowledge, of a decline in prostate cancer incidence in Italy following the screening-related increase.

  3. The incidence of eating disorders in a Danish register study: Associations with suicide risk and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zerwas, Stephanie; Tidselbak Larsen, Janne; Petersen, Liselotte

    2015-01-01

    Our aim was to characterize the incidence rates and cumulative incidence of anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), and eating disorder not otherwise specified (EDNOS), and examine associations among eating disorder diagnoses, suicide attempts, and mortality. Individuals born in Denmark...

  4. The incidence rate of cancer in patients with schizophrenia: A meta-analysis of cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hailong; Li, Jiasi; Yu, Xiya; Zheng, Huiwen; Sun, Xu; Lu, Yue; Zhang, Yanbo; Li, Chunbo; Bi, Xiaoying

    2017-09-21

    Numerous studies report that cancer prevalence in patients with schizophrenia might be different from the general population, but findings remain controversial. Our updated meta-analysis of cohort studies aims to analyze the data from cohort studies concerning the incidence risk of overall cancer and some site-specific cancers in patients with schizophrenia. We performed a systemic search through electronic databases. Cohort studies evaluating and describing the cancer incidence among patients with schizophrenia were included. Pooled risk ratios (RRs) were calculated for assessing the incidence risk of cancer. There were 16 cohort studies included in this meta-analysis, which combined a total of 480,356 participants with schizophrenia and 41,999 cases of cancer. Results showed that there was a slight significant decreased overall risk ratio of cancer incidence among patients with schizophrenia (RR=0.90, 95% CI 0.81-0.99). When stratified by cancer site and gender, there were significant decreased incidence risk rates of colorectal cancer (RR=0.82, 95% CI 0.69-0.98) and prostate cancer (RR=0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71) in those patients, moreover, the incidence rate of colorectal cancer decreased significantly in male patients (RR=0.89, 95% CI 0.81-0.98), and the incidence rate of lung cancer increased significantly in female patients (RR=1.12, 95% CI 1.01-1.25). The incidence risk of some cancers was reduced in patients with schizophrenia. Gender and type of cancer were two important confounding factors contributed to the heterogeneity that required adjustment in our cancer incidence meta-analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. ENT problems in Dutch children: Trends in incidence rates, antibiotic prescribing and referrals 2002–2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uijen, Johannes Hjm; Bindels, Patrick Je; Schellevis, François G.; van der Wouden, Johannes C.

    2011-01-01

    Background Ear, nose, and throat (ENT) problems are common in childhood and are important reasons to visit the general practitioner. Objective To examine trends in incidence rates, antibiotic prescribing, and referrals of five common ENT problems in children. Design Netherlands Information Network of General Practice (LINH), a nationally representative general practice database. Setting A total of 50 000 children, aged 0–17 years, registered in Dutch general practice over the period 2002–2008. Methods Incidence rates were calculated and trends were analysed using linear regression analysis, with incidence rates per age group, proportion treated with antibiotics, and referrals as dependent variables and year of observation as independent variable. Results In general, incidence rates of acute otitis media, serous otitis, sinusitis, tonsillitis, and tonsil hypertrophy remained stable over the period 2002–2008. An increasing trend was observed for serous otitis media in children aged 0–4 years (RR = 1.04, p 80% of cases. Conclusions This study showed remarkably stable trends in incidence rates, antibiotic prescribing, and referrals of common ENT problems. The low proportion of antibiotic treatment in ENT problems did not show negative consequences. PMID:21591837

  6. Prevalence and incidence rate of injuries in runners at a local athletic club in Cape Town

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hendricks

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available People across the world are running on a daily basis to improvetheir health status. However, running can predispose an individual to injuryto the back and lower limb. Baseline data on prevalence, incidence rate ofinjury and aetiological factors associated with running injuries are neededby physiotherapists to develop and implement effective prevention programmesto allow optimal performance in runners. Thus, the purpose of this study wasto determine the prevalence and incidence of injuries in runners at a localathletic club.Methods: A prospective, non-experimental cohort study was conductedover a 16 week period. A sample of 50 runners completed a self-administeredquestionnaire and an injury report form recording injuries sustained during the 16 week study period. Injury prevalence andcumulative incidence was calculated as a proportion rate along with 95% confidence interval.Results: The prevalence rate of injuries was 32%. The incidence rate of injuries was 0.67 per 1000km run (95% CI: 0.41- 1.08.The most common anatomical sites for new injuries were the calf (20% and the knee (18%.Conclusions: The study found a moderate prevalence and incidence rate of injury in runners, thus the need for physiotherapyledinjury surveillance and prevention programmes have been highlighted.

  7. Exercise Heart Rate Reserve and Recovery as Predictors of Incident Type 2 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jae, Sae Young; Kurl, Sudhir; Laukkanen, Jari A; Zaccardi, Francesco; Choi, Yoon-Ho; Fernhall, Bo; Carnethon, Mercedes; Franklin, Barry A

    2016-05-01

    We tested the hypothesis that selected exercise heart rate responses, specifically those providing indices of autonomic dysfunction, may be associated with incident type 2 diabetes in 2231 apparently healthy men with normal baseline fasting glucose levels. Heart rate reserve was calculated as the difference between the maximal attained heart rate and the supine resting heart rate, whereas heart rate recovery was defined as the maximal heart rate minus the heart rate measured at 2 minutes of recovery after peak or symptom-limited cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Type 2 diabetes was defined as glycated hemoglobin >6.5% or fasting plasma glucose >126 mg/dL at the follow-up examination. During a median follow-up interval of 5 years, 90 of the 2231 men (4.0%) developed type 2 diabetes. The relative risks of incident type 2 diabetes in men within the lowest quartiles of heart rate reserve and heart rate recovery versus men comprising the highest quartiles of heart rate reserve and heart rate recovery were 2.71 (95% confidence interval, 1.20-6.11) and 2.81 (95% confidence interval, 1.36-5.78) after adjusting for potential confounding variables. Each unit increment (1 beat/min) in heart rate reserve and heart rate recovery was associated with a 2% to 3% decreased incidence of type 2 diabetes. Exercise heart rate reserve and recovery predicted incidence of type 2 diabetes in healthy men, suggesting that autonomic dysfunction may be associated with an increased likelihood for the development of this cardiometabolic risk factor. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Epidemiology of Pelvic Fractures in Germany: Considerably High Incidence Rates among Older People.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrich, Silke; Haastert, Burkhard; Neuhaus, Elke; Neidert, Kathrin; Arend, Werner; Ohmann, Christian; Grebe, Jürgen; Vogt, Andreas; Jungbluth, Pascal; Rösler, Grit; Windolf, Joachim; Icks, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Epidemiological data about pelvic fractures are limited. Until today, most studies only analyzed inpatient data. The purpose of this study was to estimate incidence rates of pelvic fractures in the German population aged 60 years or older, based on outpatient and inpatient data. We conducted a retrospective population-based observational study based on routine data from a large health insurance company in Germany. Age and sex-specific incidence rates of first fractures between 2008 and 2011 were calculated. We also standardized incidence rates with respect to age and sex in the German population. Multiple Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the association between the risk of first pelvic fracture as outcome and sex, age, calendar year and region as independent variables. The total number of patients with a first pelvic fracture corresponded to 8,041 and during the study period 5,978 insured persons needed inpatient treatment. Overall, the standardized incidence rate of all first pelvic fractures was 22.4 [95% CI 22.0-22.9] per 10,000 person-years, and the standardized incidence rate of inpatient treated fractures 16.5 [16.1-16.9]. Our adjusted regression analysis confirmed a significant sex (RR 2.38 [2.23-2.55], p year (higher risk in later years compared to 2008, p = 0.0162) and first fracture risk and a further significant association with region (RR 0.92 [0.87-0.98], p = 0.006, Westfalen-Lippe as reference). The observed incidences are considerably higher than incidences described in the international literature, even if only inpatient treated pelvic fractures are regarded. Besides which, non-inclusion of outpatient data means that a relevant proportion of pelvic fractures are not taken into account. Prevention of low energy trauma among older people remains an important issue.

  9. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE INCIDENCE RATES OF TESTICULAR AND PROSTATIC CANCERS AND FOOD CONSUMPTIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李湘鸣; 刘秀梵; 佐藤·章夫

    2002-01-01

    Objective: To determine the relationships between the incidence rates of testicular and prostatic cancers and food consumptions in order to study the etiologic cause and the mechanism of the development of male genital organ cancer. Methods: The incidence rates of testicular and prostatic cancers in 42 countries (region) were correlated with the dietary practices in these countries. These data came from the cancer rate database (1988-1992) and the food supply database (1961-1990) provided by the Department of Environmental Health, Medical University of Yamanashi, Japan. Results: The incidence rates of testicular and prostatic cancers varied greatly from country to country but in China the rates of the both malignancies were lower than that of USA and Japan. This may be due to the difference in lifestyle, especially in dietary practices. Among the food items weexamined, cheese was most closely correlated with the incidence of testicular cancer at ages 20-39, followed by animal fats and milk. The correlation coefficient (r) was the highest (r= 0.804) when calculated for cheese consumed during the period of 1961-1965 (maternal or prepubertal consumption). Stepwise- multiple-regression analysis revealed that cheese (1961-1965) made a significant contribution to the incidence of testicular cancer. Multiple coefficient ( r) is 0.920. As far as prostatic cancer was concerned, milk was most closely correlated (r=0.711) with its incidence, followed by meat and coffee. Stepwise-multiple-regression analysis identified milk, meat, butter and coffee as significant factors contributing to the incidence of prostatic cancer (R=0.993).The results of our study suggest a role of milk and dairy practices in the development of testicular and prostatic cancers.

  10. Daylight savings time transitions and the incidence rate of unipolar depressive episodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Bertel T; Sønderskov, Kim M; Hageman, Ida

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Daylight savings time transitions affect approximately 1.6 billion people worldwide. Prior studies have documented associations between daylight savings time transitions and adverse health outcomes, but it remains unknown whether they also cause an increase in the incidence rate...... of depressive episodes. This seems likely because daylight savings time transitions affect circadian rhythms, which are implicated in the etiology of depressive disorder. Therefore, we investigated the effects of daylight savings time transitions on the incidence rate of unipolar depressive episodes. METHODS......: Using time series intervention analysis of nationwide data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register from 1995 to 2012 we compared the observed trend in the incidence rate of hospital contacts for unipolar depressive episodes after the transitions to and from summer time to the predicted...

  11. 两种胚胎冻融方法对累积妊娠率的影响%Influence of two embryo freezing methods on cumulative pregnancy rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    秘祖霞; 卢伟英; 徐雯

    2012-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the impact of two embryo freezing methods on cumulative pregnancy rate. Methods Seventy-eight patients received 92 F-ET cycles of slow freezing (group A), and 114 patients received 179 F-ET cycles in vitification warmed (group B). After warming, the survival rate, cumulative clinical pregnancy rates were compared between the two groups. Results The survival rate (94.3% vs 53.9%, P0.05). Conclusion In contrast to slow freezing, Vitrification provides a higher cumulative pregnancy rate, which serves as an efficient method for the cryopreservation of human cleavage stage embryos.%目的 比较玻璃化法和程序法对人第3天卵裂期胚胎冻融移植周期累积妊娠率的影响.方法 选取程序化冻融周期92例、玻璃化法冻融周期179例,比较分析这两种冻融方法在存活率、累积临床妊娠率等方面的效果.结果 玻璃化法在胚胎复苏存活率(94.3% vs 53.9%,P<0.01)、复苏完整胚胎形态(89.4% vs 36.3%,P<0.01)、累积临床妊娠率(28.2% vs 43%,0.01<P <0.05)等方面均明显优于程序化法,但在在胚胎植入率(13.7% vs 13.5%)、流产率(18.2% vs 22.4%)等方面差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05).结论 与程序化法比较,玻璃化法可以提高累积妊娠率,是一种高效胚胎冻融方法.

  12. Declining rates of hepatocellular carcinoma in urban Shanghai: incidence trends in 1976-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Shan; Yang, Wan-Shui; Bray, Freddie; Va, Puthiery; Zhang, Wei; Gao, Jing; Xiang, Yong-Bing

    2012-01-01

    In China, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence rates in several registry catchment populations are amongst the highest worldwide. The incidence rates in urban Shanghai were analyzed between 1976 and 2005 to describe and interpret the time trends. Age-specific and age-standardized rates were calculated and graphically presented. An age-period-cohort model was fitted to assess the effects of age at diagnosis, calendar period, and birth cohort on the changing HCC incidence rates. In total, 35,241 and 13,931 men and women were diagnosed with HCC during 1976-2005 in urban Shanghai. The age-standardized incidence rates in urban Shanghai were 33.9 per 10(5) among men and 11.4 per 10(5) among women in 1976-1980, but decreased in both sexes to 25.8 per 10(5) and 8.5 per 10(5), respectively by 2001-2005. Accelerating rates in birth cohorts born in the early-1930s and decelerating rates circa 1945 were observed in both sexes, with further accelerations noted in the late-1950s (in women) and early-1960s (in men). Given the parameterization, increases in risk of HCC were seen in successive male and female generations between 1900 and 1935, followed by a further increase among successive cohorts born around 1960, with a reduction in risk in the most recent generations. The incidence rates of HCC in urban Shanghai from 1976 to 2005 have declined in both sexes, with the complex but similar patterns observed in successive generations suggestive of a shared changing prevalence in risk factors in men and women, with a role possibly for HBV interventions reducing risk of HCC in cohorts born after 1960.

  13. Prospective longitudinal cohort study on cumulative 5-year delivery and adoption rates among 1338 couples initiating infertility treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinborg, A; Hougaard, C O; Andersen, Anders Nyboe

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND The objective was to assess crude 5-year delivery rates after assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment, intrauterine inseminations (IUI), spontaneous conceptions (SC) and adoptions in a large infertile cohort. METHODS A prospective longitudinal survey comprised 1338 infertile...... couples starting public infertility programmes offering IUIs and three free ART cycles during 2000-2001. The cohort was cross-linked with the National Medical Birth Register to obtain delivery rates for all 1338 couples. More detailed data were available from 817 women responding to a 5-year follow......-up questionnaire (response rate 74.7%). Fifty-seven percent (466/817) of the couples had received treatment prior to inclusion in the study with an average of 4.1+/-2.8 infertility treatments before referral. RESULTS Of the 1338 couples, 69.4% had at least one delivery within 5-years of follow-up. For women

  14. Modelling idiopathic Parkinson disease as a complex illness can inform incidence rate in healthy adults: the PR EDIGT score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlossmacher, Michael G; Tomlinson, Julianna J; Santos, Goncalo; Shutinoski, Bojan; Brown, Earl G; Manuel, Douglas; Mestre, Tiago

    2017-01-01

    Fifty-five years after the concept of dopamine replacement therapy was introduced, Parkinson disease (PD) remains an incurable neurological disorder. To date, no disease-modifying therapeutic has been approved. The inability to predict PD incidence risk in healthy adults is seen as a limitation in drug development, because by the time of clinical diagnosis ≥ 60% of dopamine neurons have been lost. We have designed an incidence prediction model founded on the concept that the pathogenesis of PD is similar to that of many disorders observed in ageing humans, i.e. a complex, multifactorial disease. Our model considers five factors to determine cumulative incidence rates for PD in healthy adults: (i) DNA variants that alter susceptibility (D), e.g. carrying a LRRK2 or GBA risk allele; (ii) Exposure history to select environmental factors including xenobiotics (E); (iii) Gene-environment interactions that initiate pathological tissue responses (I), e.g. a rise in ROS levels, misprocessing of amyloidogenic proteins (foremost, α-synuclein) and dysregulated inflammation; (iv) sex (or gender; G); and importantly, (v) time (T) encompassing ageing-related changes, latency of illness and propagation of disease. We propose that cumulative incidence rates for PD (PR ) can be calculated in healthy adults, using the formula: PR (%) = (E + D + I) × G × T. Here, we demonstrate six case scenarios leading to young-onset parkinsonism (n = 3) and late-onset PD (n = 3). Further development and validation of this prediction model and its scoring system promise to improve subject recruitment in future intervention trials. Such efforts will be aimed at disease prevention through targeted selection of healthy individuals with a higher prediction score for developing PD in the future and at disease modification in subjects that already manifest prodromal signs. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience published by Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and

  15. Cancer incidence rate ratios of Turkish immigrants in Hamburg, Germany: A registry based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spallek, Jacob; Arnold, Melina; Hentschel, Stefan; Razum, Oliver

    2009-12-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate cancer incidence rate ratios for Turkish migrants in Hamburg, Germany. We used a name-based approach and identified 1346 cases with Turkish names (as a proxy of Turkish origin) among 140,249 cases of cancer registered in the cancer registry Hamburg during 1990-2005. To estimate the size of the denominator population, we applied the name-based approach to the population of Hamburg as well. The cancer incidence of specific cancer sites was compared between Turkish and non-Turkish cases using incidence rate ratios (IRR), stratified by gender and birth cohort. Our main findings are that cancer of the respiratory organs is diagnosed less frequent among Turkish men in older birth cohorts but with higher frequency in the younger birth cohorts. Malignant neoplasms of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissues are slightly higher in most male Turkish men birth cohorts, and even considerably higher for the birth cohort 1961 to <1971 (IRR=1.8). Among women, incidence rates for Turkish women are lower than for non-Turkish women for cancer of the respiratory system, skin cancer and cancer of genital organs. Also, breast cancer incidence rates of Turkish women are lower than for non-Turkish women, especially in older birth cohorts. Incidence rate ratios of neoplasms of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissues are low in the 1931 to <1941 cohort (IRR=0.71) but increase in younger birth cohorts. In conclusion, we found differences in cancer risks between cases with and without Turkish names for specific cancer sites. These results are consistent with the findings of studies from other countries.

  16. A comparison of hip fracture incidence rates among elderly in Sweden by latitude and sunlight exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilson, Finn; Moniruzzaman, Syed; Andersson, Ragnar

    2014-03-01

    Research has shown that hip fracture risk increases with latitude; hypothetically due to reduced sunlight exposure and its effect on bone quality. Sweden, with large differences in latitude and UV radiation, is ideal to study in order to analyse the association between latitude and UV radiation on age- and sex-specific hip fracture rates among elderly. Aggregated (2006-2008) age- and sex-specific hip fracture data was obtained for each Swedish municipality as well as the municipality's latitudinal coordinates and aggregated (2006-2008) UV radiation levels. Pearson correlations were calculated between hip fracture incidence rates, latitude and UV radiation. Independent t tests were calculated on tertile-categorized latitudinal data in order to investigate the difference in hip fracture risk between these categories. Statistically significant correlations were seen in all groups between hip fracture incidence rates and latitude as well as UV radiation. The independent t tests showed that this correlation was mainly due to high incidence rates in high latitude municipalities. Statistically significant correlations are seen between hip fracture incidence rates and latitude as well as UV radiation in Sweden and the northern parts of Sweden have an increased risk of hip fractures compared to the middle and southern parts. To our knowledge this is the first study using a national discharge register that shows this relationship and provides a starting point for further research to investigate why populations in northern Sweden have a higher risk of hip fractures compared to other Swedish regions.

  17. Global Stability of an HIV-1 Infection Model with General Incidence Rate and Distributed Delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndongo, Abdoul Samba; Talibi Alaoui, Hamad

    2014-01-01

    In this work an HIV-1 infection model with nonlinear incidence rate and distributed intracellular delays and with humoral immunity is investigated. The disease transmission function is assumed to be governed by general incidence rate f(T, V)V. The intracellular delays describe the time between viral entry into a target cell and the production of new virus particles and the time between infection of a cell and the emission of viral particle. Lyapunov functionals are constructed and LaSalle invariant principle for delay differential equation is used to establish the global asymptotic stability of the infection-free equilibrium, infected equilibrium without B cells response, and infected equilibrium with B cells response. The results obtained show that the global dynamics of the system depend on both the properties of the general incidence function and the value of certain threshold parameters R 0 and R 1 which depends on the delays.

  18. Global Stability of an HIV-1 Infection Model with General Incidence Rate and Distributed Delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    In this work an HIV-1 infection model with nonlinear incidence rate and distributed intracellular delays and with humoral immunity is investigated. The disease transmission function is assumed to be governed by general incidence rate f(T, V)V. The intracellular delays describe the time between viral entry into a target cell and the production of new virus particles and the time between infection of a cell and the emission of viral particle. Lyapunov functionals are constructed and LaSalle invariant principle for delay differential equation is used to establish the global asymptotic stability of the infection-free equilibrium, infected equilibrium without B cells response, and infected equilibrium with B cells response. The results obtained show that the global dynamics of the system depend on both the properties of the general incidence function and the value of certain threshold parameters R 0 and R 1 which depends on the delays. PMID:27355007

  19. Oral cancer incidence and survival rates in the Republic of Ireland, 1994-2009.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ali, Hala

    2016-12-20

    Oral cancer is a significant public health problem world-wide and exerts high economic, social, psychological, and physical burdens on patients, their families, and on their primary care providers. We set out to describe the changing trends in incidence and survival rates of oral cancer in Ireland between 1994 and 2009.

  20. ENT problems in Dutch Children: Trends in incidence rates, antibiotic prescribing and referrals 2002-2008

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.H.J.M. Uijen (Hans); P.J.E. Bindels (Patrick); F.G. Schellevis (François); J.C. van der Wouden (Hans)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractBackground. Ear, nose, and throat (ENT) problems are common in childhood and are important reasons to visit the general practitioner. Objective. To examine trends in incidence rates, antibiotic prescribing, and referrals of five common ENT problems in children. Design. Netherlands Inform

  1. ENT problems in Dutch children: trends in incidence rates, antibiotic prescribing and referrals 2002-2008.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uijen, J.H.J.M.; Bindels, P.J.E.; Schellevis, F.G.; Wouden, J.C. van der

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND. Ear, nose, and throat (ENT) problems are common in childhood and are important reasons to visit the general practitioner. OBJECTIVE. To examine trends in incidence rates, antibiotic prescribing, and referrals of five common ENT problems in children. DESIGN. Netherlands Information Networ

  2. Incidence rates of atopic dermatitis, asthma, and allergic rhinoconjunctivitis in Danish and Swedish children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stokholm, Lonny Merete; Simonsen, Jacob; Haerskjold, Ann;

    2015-01-01

    national registers, we sought to establish up-to-date incidence rates of atopic dermatitis, asthma, and allergic rhinoconjunctivitis in the Danish and Swedish child populations. METHODS: Children born in Denmark from 1997 to 2011 or born in Sweden from 2006 to 2010 participated in this cross...

  3. Use of a claims database to characterize and estimate the incidence rate for Castleman disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munshi, Nikhil; Mehra, Maneesha; van de Velde, Helgi; Desai, Avinash; Potluri, Ravi; Vermeulen, Jessica

    2015-05-01

    Castleman disease (CD) is a rare lymphoproliferative disorder affecting single (unicentric; UCD) or multiple (multicentric; MCD) lymph nodes. The incidence of this difficult to diagnose disease is poorly understood, as no International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) code is available. This study utilized a unique strategy to estimate its incidence using two commercial claims databases, IMS LifeLink™ and Truven Health Analytics MarketScan(®). Patients with an index diagnosis of lymphadenopathy (ICD-9 code 785.6) were followed longitudinally for 1 year prior to and 2 years post-index diagnosis date. An algorithm that identifies potential patients with CD was developed to determine the incidence rate in person-years. The incidence rate for CD was calculated as 21 (IMS LifeLink™) and 25 (MarketScan(®)) per million person-years. Additionally, 23% of patients with CD were identified as potentially suffering from MCD. These results are consistent with the definition of an orphan disease, and the low incidence of the disease estimated in the literature.

  4. Association of arsenic exposure with lung cancer incidence rates in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph J Putila

    Full Text Available Although strong exposure to arsenic has been shown to be carcinogenic, its contribution to lung cancer incidence in the United States is not well characterized. We sought to determine if the low-level exposures to arsenic seen in the U.S. are associated with lung cancer incidence after controlling for possible confounders, and to assess the interaction with smoking behavior.Measurements of arsenic stream sediment and soil concentration obtained from the USGS National Geochemical Survey were combined, respectively, with 2008 BRFSS estimates on smoking prevalence and 2000 U.S. Census county level income to determine the effects of these factors on lung cancer incidence, as estimated from respective state-wide cancer registries and the SEER database. Poisson regression was used to determine the association between each variable and age-adjusted county-level lung cancer incidence. ANOVA was used to assess interaction effects between covariates.Sediment levels of arsenic were significantly associated with an increase in incident cases of lung cancer (P<0.0001. These effects persisted after controlling for smoking and income (P<0.0001. Across the U.S., exposure to arsenic may contribute to up to 5,297 lung cancer cases per year. There was also a significant interaction between arsenic exposure levels and smoking prevalence (P<0.05.Arsenic was significantly associated with lung cancer incidence rates in the U.S. after controlling for smoking and income, indicating that low-level exposure to arsenic is responsible for excess cancer cases in many parts of the U.S. Elevated county smoking prevalence strengthened the association between arsenic exposure and lung cancer incidence rate, an effect previously unseen on a population level.

  5. Thoracic kyphosis and rate of incident vertebral fractures: the Fracture Intervention Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vittinghoff, E.; Kado, D. M.; Lane, N. E.; Ensrud, K. E.; Shipp, K.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Biomechanical analyses support the theory that thoracic spine hyperkyphosis may increase risk of new vertebral fractures. While greater kyphosis was associated with an increased rate of incident vertebral fractures, our analysis does not show an independent association of kyphosis on incident fracture, after adjustment for prevalent vertebral fracture. Excessive kyphosis may still be a clinical marker for prevalent vertebral fracture. Introduction Biomechanical analyses suggest hyperkyphosis may increase risk of incident vertebral fracture by increasing the load on vertebral bodies during daily activities. We propose to assess the association of kyphosis with incident radiographic vertebral fracture. Methods We used data from the Fracture Intervention Trial among 3038 women 55–81 years of age with low bone mineral density (BMD). Baseline kyphosis angle was measured using a Debrunner kyphometer. Vertebral fractures were assessed at baseline and follow-up from lateral radiographs of the thoracic and lumbar spine. We used Poisson models to estimate the independent association of kyphosis with incident fracture, controlling for age and femoral neck BMD. Results Mean baseline kyphosis was 48° (SD = 12) (range 7–83). At baseline, 962 (32 %) participants had a prevalent fracture. There were 221 incident fractures over a median of 4 years. At baseline, prevalent fracture was associated with 3.7° greater average kyphosis (95 % CI 2.8–4.6, p < 0.0005), adjusting for age and femoral neck BMD. Before adjusting for prevalent fracture, each 10° greater kyphosis was associated with 22 % increase (95 % CI 8–38 %, p = 0.001) in annualized rate of new radiographic vertebral fracture, adjusting for age and femoral neck BMD. After additional adjustment for prevalent fracture, estimated increased annualized rate was attenuated and no longer significant, 8 % per 10° kyphosis (95 % CI −4 to 22 %, p = 0.18). Conclusions While greater kyphosis increased the rate of

  6. Global dynamics of a vector-borne disease model with latency and saturating incidence rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashrafur Rahman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with a vector-borne disease model containing latency and nonlinear incidence rates. Global analysis is completely determined by suitable Lyapunov functionals. We explicitely determine the basic reproduction number and find that if this number is less than one then disease dies out, but if the number is larger than one, the disease causing strain become endemic. The study shows that the latency delay explicitely in°uence the disease persistence. Keywords: Latency, saturating incidence, basic reproduction number, global attractivity, Lyapunov functionals.

  7. Toward a better understanding of the comparatively high prostate cancer incidence rates in Utah

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wiggins Charles L

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study assesses whether comparatively high prostate cancer incidence rates among white men in Utah represent higher rates among members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS or Mormons, who comprise about 70% of the state's male population, and considers the potential influence screening has on these rates. Methods Analyses are based on 14,693 histologically confirmed invasive prostate cancer cases among men aged 50 years and older identified through the Utah Cancer Registry between 1985 and 1999. Cancer records were linked to LDS Church membership records to determine LDS status. Poisson regression was used to derive rate ratios of LDS to nonLDS prostate cancer incidence, adjusted for age, disease stage, calendar time, and incidental detection. Results LDS men had a 31% (95% confidence interval, 26% – 36% higher incidence rate of prostate cancer than nonLDS men during the study period. Rates were consistently higher among LDS men over time (118% in 1985–88, 20% in 1989–92, 15% in 1993–1996, and 13% in 1997–99; age (13% in ages 50–59, 48% in ages 60–69, 28% in ages 70–79, and 16% in ages 80 and older; and stage (36% in local/regional and 17% in unstaged. An age- and stage-shift was observed for both LDS and nonLDS men, although more pronounced among LDS men. Conclusions Comparatively high prostate cancer incidence rates among LDS men in Utah are explained, at least in part, by more aggressive screening among these men.

  8. Using simulation models to investigate the cumulative effects of sowing rate, sowing date and cultivar choice on weed competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Izzadora K S; Storkey, Jonathan

    2017-05-01

    With the increasing pressure on crop production from the evolution of herbicide resistance, farmers are increasingly adopting Integrated Weed Management (IWM) strategies to augment their weed control. These include measures to increase the competitiveness of the crop canopy such as increased sowing rate and the use of more competitive cultivars. While there are data on the relative impact of these non-chemical weed control methods assessed in isolation, there is uncertainty about their combined contribution, which may be hindering their adoption. In this article, the INTERCOM simulation model of crop/weed competition was used to examine the combined impact of crop density, sowing date and cultivar choice on the outcomes of competition between wheat (Triticum aestivum) and Alopecurus myosuroides. Alopecurus myosuroides is a problematic weed of cereal crops in North-Western Europe and the primary target for IWM in the UK because it has evolved resistance to a range of herbicides. The model was parameterised for two cultivars with contrasting competitive ability, and simulations run across 10 years at different crop densities and two sowing dates. The results suggest that sowing date, sowing density and cultivar choice largely work in a complementary fashion, allowing enhanced competitive ability against weeds when used in combination. However, the relative benefit of choosing a more competitive cultivar decreases at later sowing dates and higher crop densities. Modeling approaches could be further employed to examine the effectiveness of IWM, reducing the need for more expensive and cumbersome long-term in situ experimentation.

  9. Incidence Rate and Patterns of Physical Restraint Use Among Adult Patients in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eskandari, Fatemeh; Abdullah, Khatijah Lim; Zainal, Nor Zuraida; Wong, Li Ping

    2016-11-16

    Incidence rate and patterns of physical restraint use were examined based on a cross-sectional study in 22 wards of a large teaching hospital in Malaysia. Results indicated that the highest rate of physical restraint (19.7%) was reported from neurology-neurosurgery wards. "Un-cooperative for electroconvulsive therapy" and "trying to pull out catheters" were the most commonly reported reasons to use restraint in psychiatric and non-psychiatric wards, respectively. There were some relationships between patterns of physical restraint in this study. Exploring the incidence rate and patterns of physical restraint is important so that effective strategies can be formulated to minimize using restraint in hospitals. © The Author(s) 2016.

  10. A review of fatal accident incidence rate trends in fishing international

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Olaf; Pétursdóttir, G; Abrahamsen, Annbjørg;

    2014-01-01

    on journal articles and reports from the maritime authorities in Poland, UK, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, US and Alaska and Canada. The original incidence rates were recalculated as per 1000 person-years for international comparison of the trends. Results. The risk of fatal accidents in fishing in the northern...... countries has been reduced by around 50% to an average of about 1 per 1000 person-years. Norway and Canada keep the lowest rates with around 0.5 and 0.25 per 1000 person-years. About half of the fatal injuries are related to vessel disasters and drowning. The safety programs seem to have good effects still......Background. Injury prevention in fishing is one of the most important occupational health challenges. The aim was to describe and compare internationally the trends of the fatal injury incidence rates and to discuss the impact of the implemented safety programs. Methods. The review is based...

  11. Relationship between coronary artery remodeling and cumulative incidence of coronary angiographic lesions with vulnerable characteristics in patients with stable angina pectoris

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Ling; L(U) Shu-zheng; JIN Ze-ning; SONG Xian-tao

    2010-01-01

    ackground Development of vulnerable lesions is not limited to the target lesions, but a pan-coronary process. Such lesions are identified by positive remodeling (intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) and complex lesions (angiography)). The prevalence of lesions with vulnerable characteristics in patients with stable angina was not well known. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the relationship between coronary artery remodeling and incidence of angiographic complex lesions and its calcification in stable angina patients.Methods One hundred and sixty-one stable angina patients (95 males, aged (68±11) years) with 161 de novo target lesions were studied using pre-interventional IVUS. Remodeling index was defined as the lesion divided by reference vessel area; positive remodeling was defined as remodeling index >1.05. Besides the 161 target lesions, there were 613 angiographic lesions with >30% diameter stenoses, classified as complex or smooth. Multiple complexes were defined as more than one complex lesion in one patient. Stenoses of at least 70% were described as tight. Calcium arc area was used as a new method to quantify coronary calcification.Results Fifty-six patients had positive remodeling target lesion, while 105 did not. The overall number of lesions with a diameter stenoses >30% was similar in patients with or without positive remodeling, and the frequency of angiographically complex lesions was higher in positive remodeling patients, especially at non-target site. Calcium arc area was smaller in patients with positive remodeling.Conclusions Positive remodeling on intravascular ultrasound was associated with more complex lesions angiographic findings, especially at non target site. Positive remodeling was found less calcified in patients with stable angina.

  12. The Impact of Changes to the Unemployment Rate on Australian Disability Income Insurance Claim Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaurav Khemka

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We explore the extent to which claim incidence in Disability Income Insurance (DII is affected by changes in the unemployment rate in Australia. Using data from 1986 to 2001, we fit a hurdle model to explore the presence and magnitude of the effect of changes in unemployment rate on the incidence of DII claims, controlling for policy holder characteristics and seasonality. We find a clear positive association between unemployment and claim incidence, and we explore this further by gender, age, deferment period, and occupation. A multinomial logistic regression model is fitted to cause of claim data in order to explore the relationship further, and it is shown that the proportion of claims due to accident increases markedly with rising unemployment. The results suggest that during periods of rising unemployment, insurers may face increased claims from policy holders with shorter deferment periods for white-collar workers and for medium and heavy manual workers. Our findings indicate that moral hazard may have a material impact on DII claim incidence and insurer business in periods of declining economic conditions.

  13. Apparent Dependence of Rate- and State-Dependent Friction Parameters on Loading Velocity and Cumulative Displacement Inferred from Large-Scale Biaxial Friction Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urata, Yumi; Yamashita, Futoshi; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Noda, Hiroyuki; Mizoguchi, Kazuo

    2017-06-01

    We investigated the constitutive parameters in the rate- and state-dependent friction (RSF) law by conducting numerical simulations, using the friction data from large-scale biaxial rock friction experiments for Indian metagabbro. The sliding surface area was 1.5 m long and 0.5 m wide, slid for 400 s under a normal stress of 1.33 MPa at a loading velocity of either 0.1 or 1.0 mm/s. During the experiments, many stick-slips were observed and those features were as follows. (1) The friction drop and recurrence time of the stick-slip events increased with cumulative slip displacement in an experiment before which the gouges on the surface were removed, but they became almost constant throughout an experiment conducted after several experiments without gouge removal. (2) The friction drop was larger and the recurrence time was shorter in the experiments with faster loading velocity. We applied a one-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model with mass to estimate the RSF parameters by fitting the stick-slip intervals and slip-weakening curves measured based on spring force and acceleration of the specimens. We developed an efficient algorithm for the numerical time integration, and we conducted forward modeling for evolution parameters ( b) and the state-evolution distances (L_{{c}}), keeping the direct effect parameter ( a) constant. We then identified the confident range of b and L_{{c}} values. Comparison between the results of the experiments and our simulations suggests that both b and L_{{c}} increase as the cumulative slip displacement increases, and b increases and L_{{c}} decreases as the loading velocity increases. Conventional RSF laws could not explain the large-scale friction data, and more complex state evolution laws are needed.

  14. Apparent Dependence of Rate- and State-Dependent Friction Parameters on Loading Velocity and Cumulative Displacement Inferred from Large-Scale Biaxial Friction Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urata, Yumi; Yamashita, Futoshi; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Noda, Hiroyuki; Mizoguchi, Kazuo

    2016-11-01

    We investigated the constitutive parameters in the rate- and state-dependent friction (RSF) law by conducting numerical simulations, using the friction data from large-scale biaxial rock friction experiments for Indian metagabbro. The sliding surface area was 1.5 m long and 0.5 m wide, slid for 400 s under a normal stress of 1.33 MPa at a loading velocity of either 0.1 or 1.0 mm/s. During the experiments, many stick-slips were observed and those features were as follows. (1) The friction drop and recurrence time of the stick-slip events increased with cumulative slip displacement in an experiment before which the gouges on the surface were removed, but they became almost constant throughout an experiment conducted after several experiments without gouge removal. (2) The friction drop was larger and the recurrence time was shorter in the experiments with faster loading velocity. We applied a one-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model with mass to estimate the RSF parameters by fitting the stick-slip intervals and slip-weakening curves measured based on spring force and acceleration of the specimens. We developed an efficient algorithm for the numerical time integration, and we conducted forward modeling for evolution parameters (b) and the state-evolution distances (L_{c} ), keeping the direct effect parameter (a) constant. We then identified the confident range of b and L_{c} values. Comparison between the results of the experiments and our simulations suggests that both b and L_{c} increase as the cumulative slip displacement increases, and b increases and L_{c} decreases as the loading velocity increases. Conventional RSF laws could not explain the large-scale friction data, and more complex state evolution laws are needed.

  15. Nuclear medicine incident reporting in Australia: control charts and notification rates inform quality improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larcos, G; Collins, L T; Georgiou, A; Westbrook, J I

    2015-06-01

    Australia has a statutory incident reporting system for radiopharmaceutical maladministrations, but additional research into registry data is required for the purpose of quality improvement in nuclear medicine. We (i) used control charts to identify factors contributing to special cause variation (indicating higher than expected rates) in maladministrations and (ii) evaluated the impact of heterogeneous notification criteria and extent of underreporting among jurisdictions and individual facilities, respectively. Anonymised summaries of Australian Radiation Incident Register reports permitted calculation of national monthly maladministration notification rates for 2007-2012 and preparation of control charts. Multivariate logistic regression assessed the association of population, insurance and regulatory characteristics with maladministration notifications in each Australian State and Territory. Maladministration notification rates from two facilities with familiarity of notification processes and commitment to radiation protection were compared with those elsewhere. Special cause variation occurred in only 3 months, but contributed to 21% of all incidents (42 of 197 patients), mainly because of 'clusters' of maladministrations (n = 24) arising from errors in bulk radiopharmaceutical dispensing. Maladministration notification rates varied significantly between jurisdictions (0 to 12.2 maladministrations per 100 000 procedures (P < 0.05)) and individual facilities (31.7 vs 5.8 per 100 000; χ(2) = 40; 1 degree of freedom, P < 0.001). Unexpected increases in maladministration notifications predominantly relate to incident 'clusters' affecting multiple patients. The bulk preparation of radiopharmaceuticals is a vulnerable process and merits additional safeguards. Maladministration notification rates in Australia are heterogeneous. Adopting uniform maladministration notification criteria among States and Territories and methods to overcome underreporting are

  16. Cancer incidence and incidence rates in Japan in 2008: a study of 25 population-based cancer registries for the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan (MCIJ) project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuda, Ayako; Matsuda, Tomohiro; Shibata, Akiko; Katanoda, Kota; Sobue, Tomotaka; Nishimoto, Hiroshi

    2014-04-01

    The Japan Cancer Surveillance Research Group aimed to estimate the cancer incidence in Japan in 2008 based on data collected from 25 of 34 population-based cancer registries, as part of the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan project. The incidence in Japan for 2008 was estimated to be 749 767 (C00-C96). Stomach cancer and breast cancer were the leading types of cancer in males and females, respectively.

  17. Incidence and prevalence rates of diabetes mellitus in Taiwan: Analysis of the 2000–2009 Nationwide Health Insurance database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Der Jiang

    2012-11-01

    Conclusion: The incidence of diabetes, including type 1, remained stable over this 10-year period in Taiwan. However, the incidence rate in men aged 20–59 years was higher than that in age-matched women. With our nationwide database, subgroup analysis of DM incidence can be performed to refine our health policies for the prevention, screening, and treatment of diabetes mellitus.

  18. A class of stochastic delayed SIR epidemic models with generalized nonlinear incidence rate and temporary immunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Kuangang; Zhang, Yan; Gao, Shujing; Wei, Xiang

    2017-09-01

    A class of SIR epidemic model with generalized nonlinear incidence rate is presented in this paper. Temporary immunity and stochastic perturbation are also considered. The existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution is achieved. Sufficient conditions guaranteeing the extinction and persistence of the epidemic disease are established. Moreover, the threshold behavior is discussed, and the threshold value R0 is obtained. We show that if R0 1, then the system remains permanent in the mean.

  19. Measurement of a drowning incidence rate combining direct observation of an exposed population with mortality statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Damian; Ozanne-Smith, Joan

    2015-01-01

    Drowning risk factors may be identified by comparing drowning incidence rates for comparable at-risk populations but precise methods are lacking. To address this knowledge gap, an ecological study extrapolated crude time-duration exposure to water for a specified at-risk sample of surf bathers to estimate the bather population for all wave-dominated beaches in Victoria, Australia, over a four-year summer season period. An incidence rate was calculated using surf bather drowning deaths frequencies matched for time and location. For the sample, 47,341 hours of surf bathing were estimated from 177,528 bathing episodes. Generalising these results to Victoria, the crude drowning deaths incidence rate in the summer season was 0.41 per 1,000,000 person-hours of surf bathing (95% CI 0.37-0.45). Further application of the method, particularly in open water settings, may be used to identify candidate drowning risk factors to advance drowning prevention strategies.

  20. [Cesarean section incidence and vaginal birth success rate at term pregnancy after myomectomy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mekiňová, L; Janků, P; Filipinská, E; Kadlecová, J; Ventruba, P

    To compare the incidence of primary and acute cesarean section (CS) and to compare success rate of vaginal delivery. To determine the frequency of maternal complications and evaluation of post-partum condition of the newborn. Prospective, pilot, cohort study. Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics Masaryk University and University Hospital Brno. Analysis of patients with physiologically ongoing singleton pregnancy and term delivery, vertex presentation. Women from the study group (n = 67) underwent myomectomy because of symptomatic, solitary uterine fibroid. Women from the control group (n = 4079) had no history of myomectomy. Analysis was aimed at comparing the incidence of primary and acute CS and comparing success rate of vaginal delivery in both groups and determing the frequency of maternal complications and evaluation of post-partum condition of the newborn. A significantly higher incidence of primary cesarean section was observed in the study group with a history of myomectomy compared to the control group (n = 20, 29.9%; versus n = 396, 9.7 %, p cesarean section in both groups was recorded (n = 7, 10.4%; versus n = 570, 14.0%, p = 0.079). No statistically significant difference in the success of vaginal delivery in both groups was recorded (n = 40, 85.1%; versus n = 3113, 84.5%, p = 0.079). The excessive blood loss was the most frequent complication in both group (n = 9, 13.4%; versus n = 214, 5.2%, p = 0.057). No statistically significant difference in the incidence of uterine rupture and postpartum hysterectomy was recorded. No maternal or fetal death related to childbirth was observed. The history of myomectomy does not increase the incidence of acute cesarean section in the group of strictly selected patients suitable for vaginal birth and has no impact on the success of vaginal delivery. Careful management of labor is a prerequisite for a low risk of maternal complications and good perinatal outcomes.

  1. Treatment of occult reflux lowers the incidence rate of pediatric febrile urinary tract infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagerty, Jennifer; Maizels, Max; Kirsch, Andrew; Liu, Dennis; Afshar, Kourosh; Bukowski, Timothy; Caione, Paolo; Homsy, Yves; Meyer, Theresa; Kaplan, William

    2008-07-01

    To examine whether vesicourethral reflux diagnosed by positioned instillation of contrast (PIC-VUR) shows clinical importance by comparing the incidence rates of febrile urinary tract infection (FUTI) before and after treatment of PIC-VUR. Beginning in 2001 we used a multi-institutional registry to prospectively enroll consecutive pediatric patients with a history of FUTI without VUR according to voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG) and yet who show PIC-VUR. Treatment of PIC-VUR was with prophylactic antimicrobials or antireflux surgery. The post-treatment occurrence of FUTI was tracked. A total of 14 centers enrolled 118 patients (mean age, 7.2 years; range, 0.5 to 20 years). Parents self-selected the treatment of PIC-VUR as endoscopic injection (104), ureteral reimplantation (3), or antimicrobial prophylaxis (11). Study intervals surveying for FUTI before PIC (mean, 12 months; range, 1 to 17 years) and after PIC treatment (mean, 11 months; range, 0 to 3 years) were not significantly different. Overall the incidence rate for FUTI decreased significantly from 0.16 per patient per month before PIC-VUR treatment to 0.008 per patient per month after treatment (rate ratio 20; 95% confidence interval 11 to 36). The post-treatment rate of FUTI in patients treated with antibiotics versus surgery was not significantly different (rate ratio 2.5; 95% confidence interval 0.33 to 27). The diagnosis of PIC-VUR is clinically important because children treated for PIC-VUR with either antimicrobial prophylaxis or surgery show a significant reduction in the incidence rate of FUTI. This is the basis for a current prospective study randomizing patients with PIC-VUR to treatment or observation.

  2. An SIR Epidemic Model with Time Delay and General Nonlinear Incidence Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingming Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An SIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate and time delay is investigated. The disease transmission function and the rate that infected individuals recovered from the infected compartment are assumed to be governed by general functions F(S,I and G(I, respectively. By constructing Lyapunov functionals and using the Lyapunov-LaSalle invariance principle, the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium is obtained. It is shown that the global properties of the system depend on both the properties of these general functions and the basic reproductive number R0.

  3. Global stability and attractivity of a network-based SIS epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xiaodan; Liu, Lijun; Zhou, Wenshu

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, we study the global stability and attractivity of the endemic equilibrium for a network-based SIS epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate. The model was introduced in Li (2015). We prove that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if α (a parameter of this model) is sufficiently large, and is globally attractive if the transmission rate λ satisfies λ/λc ∈(1 , 2 ] , where λc is the epidemic threshold. Some numerical experiments are also presented to illustrate the theoretical results.

  4. Heart rate recovery after exercise and incidence of type 2 diabetes in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jae, Sae Young; Carnethon, Mercedes R; Heffernan, Kevin S; Fernhall, Bo; Lee, Moon-Kyu; Park, Won Hah

    2009-06-01

    We tested that slow heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise testing, indicative of decreased parasympathetic nervous system activity, is associated with the development of type 2 diabetes in 1,813 healthy men. Heart rate recovery was calculated as the difference between maximum heart rate during the exercise test and heart rate 1 min after cessation of the exercise test. During an average of 6.4 years of follow-up, 64 (3.5%) subjects developed type 2 diabetes. The unadjusted relative risk (RR) of developing incident diabetes in the slowest versus the fastest HRR quartile was 3.13 (95% CI, 1.28-7.65). However, the association was no longer significant after adjustment for diabetes risk factors and baseline glucose (RR = 2.28, 95% CI, 0.87-5.95). Slow HRR is associated with the development of type 2 diabetes, but these relationships were largely explained by baseline fasting glucose in healthy men.

  5. Estimation of incidence and recovery rates of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia from longitudinal data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekessy, A.; Molineaux, L.; Storey, J.

    1976-01-01

    A method is described of estimating the malaria incidence rate ĥ and the recovery rate r from longitudinal data. The method is based on the assumption that the phenomenon of patent parasitaemia can be represented by a reversible two-state catalytic model; it is applicable to all problems that can be represented by such a model. The method was applied to data on falciparum malaria from the West African savanna and the findings suggested that immunity increases the rate of recovery from patent parasitaemia by a factor of up to 10, and also reduces the number of episodes of patent parasitaemia resulting from one inoculation. Under the effect of propoxur, ĥ varies with the estimated man-biting rate of the vector while r̂ increases, possibly owing to reduced super-infection. PMID:800968

  6. Cancer incidence rates in the Kurdistan region/Iraq from 2007-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, Ramadhan T; Abdulljabar, Rezvan; Saeed, Abdullah; Kittani, Sarwar Sadiq; Sulaiman, Hushyar M; Mohammed, Sami A; Rashid, Rekawt M; Hussein, Nawfal R

    2011-01-01

    Cancer is a disease of gradual increase in incidence overall the world. Kurdistan Region in Iraq has been exposed to several carcinogenic hazards. There are few reports about the increased risk of cancer in different cities in Iraq. These reports did not cover Kurdistan region. The aim of this paper was to study cancer incidence and to identify possible risks of cancer in this region. Cancer registries from 9 hospitals in three cities of Kurdistan were used as a source of data. Information on these cases was subjected to careful verification regarding repetition, place of residence and other possible errors. Overall registered cases in 2007, 2008 and 2009 were 1444, 2081, 2356 respectively. 49% of registered cases were males and 51% were female. The Age Standardized Rate of cancer was 89.83/100 000 among male and 83.93/100 000 among female. The results showed major variation in incidence rates of different types of cancer in the three governorates of Kurdistan. Furthermore, there was evidence of increased risks of cancer in Kurdistan Region in Iraq. Hematological malignancies were the most common cancer among male (21.13% of all cancer in males) and second most common in female (18.8% of all cancer in female), only exceeded by breast cancer. To reach sound conclusions about extent and determinants of cancer in Kurdistan, enormous multi-spectrum efforts are now needed.

  7. Association Between Heart Rate at Rest and Incident Atrial Fibrillation (from the Copenhagen Electrocardiographic Study)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skov, Morten W.; Bachmann, Troels N.; Rasmussen, Peter V.

    2016-01-01

    Heart rate (HR) at rest is a well-known marker of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Results on the association between HR and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) have, however, been conflicting. Using digital electrocardiograms from 281,451 primary care patients, we aimed to describe the asso......Heart rate (HR) at rest is a well-known marker of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Results on the association between HR and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) have, however, been conflicting. Using digital electrocardiograms from 281,451 primary care patients, we aimed to describe...... the association between HR at rest and the hazards of incident AF. Secondary end points were death from all causes and pacemaker implantation. Data on drug use, co-morbidity, and outcomes were collected from nationwide administrative health care registries. During a median follow-up time of 8.4 years, 15......,666 subjects were observed to develop AF, of which 1,631 were lone AF. A HR at rest from 30 to 51 beats/min was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.16 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.27) for AF compared with the reference group (66 to 72 beats/min). From 72 beats/min and upward, the hazard ratio of AF increased...

  8. Variations in incidence rates and age of onset of acute and transient psychotic disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castagnini, Augusto; Foldager, Leslie

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To determine incidence and age of onset of the ICD-10 category of ‘acute and transient psychotic disorders’ (ATPDs) characterised by subtypes with polymorphic, schizophrenic and predominantly delusional symptoms, pointing out differences from schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar affective...... to occur in younger males (IRR 1.4; 1.2–1.7). No significant gender difference was found for acute predominantly delusional disorder (IRR 1.0; 0.9–1.2), which had a later onset than any ATPD subtypes. SZ had an incidence twice as high in males (IRR 2.0; 1.9–2.2), and an earlier age of onset than ATPDs...... disorder (BD). Methods: We identified all subjects aged 15–64 years who were listed for the first time in the Danish Psychiatric Register with a diagnosis of ATPDs (n = 3,350), SZ (n = 4,576) and BD (n = 3,200) in 1995–2008. Incidence rates and rate ratios (IRR; 95 % confidence interval) by gender and age...

  9. Variations in incidence rates and age of onset of acute and transient psychotic disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Castagnini, Augusto; Foldager, Leslie

    2013-01-01

    disorder (BD). Methods: We identified all subjects aged 15–64 years who were listed for the first time in the Danish Psychiatric Register with a diagnosis of ATPDs (n = 3,350), SZ (n = 4,576) and BD (n = 3,200) in 1995–2008. Incidence rates and rate ratios (IRR; 95 % confidence interval) by gender and age...... were calculated. Results: The incidence of ATPDs was 6.7 per 100,000 person-years, similarly high for both genders (IRR 1.0; 0.9–1.1). Among the ATPD subtypes, polymorphic psychotic disorder was more common in females (IRR 1.4; 1.2–1.6) as opposed to those featuring schizophrenic symptoms, which tended......Purpose: To determine incidence and age of onset of the ICD-10 category of ‘acute and transient psychotic disorders’ (ATPDs) characterised by subtypes with polymorphic, schizophrenic and predominantly delusional symptoms, pointing out differences from schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar affective...

  10. 累计妊娠率相关因素的探讨与分析%The discussion on the cumulative pregnancy rate related factors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡艳秋; 佘宏; 董乃俊

    2013-01-01

    目的:探讨累计妊娠率的相关因素。方法选取本生殖中心2010年11月至2013年6月完成一次取卵周期的患者为研究对象,比较年龄、获 MⅡ卵比率、受精率、正常受精率、囊胚形成率和可移植胚胎率与累计临床妊娠率的相关性,并对相关因素进行深入探讨。结果年龄、囊胚生成率和可移植胚胎率与累计临床妊娠率相关。其中,30岁以下组累计妊娠率明显高于30岁以上组(卡方检验P<0.05)。有囊胚生成组累计妊娠率显著高于无囊胚生成组(卡方检验P<0.05)。可移植胚胎率(ETR)>75%组累计妊娠率高于50%<ETR≤75%组,更高于ETR≤50%组,各组间妊娠结局均有差异(卡方检验P<0.05)。结论年龄、囊胚生成率和可移植胚胎率与累计妊娠率相关。30岁以下具有较高的临床妊娠率;非优质胚胎囊胚培养在预测累计妊娠率上有一定价值;可移植胚胎率在一次取卵周期累计妊娠率中有强提示作用。%Objective To explore IVF productivity rate(or cumulative pregnancy rate per collection cycle) correlated factors. Methods Patients completed an oocyte retrieval cycle in our reproductive medicine center from November, 2010 to June, 2013 were chose as the study objects. The correlation between age, MII oocyte ratio, fertilization rate, normal fertilization rate, blastocyst formation rate(BFR), embryo transfer rate(ETR) and productivity rate were analyzed. And the relevant factors were explored further. Results Age, BFR and ETR were related with productivity rate. Productivity rate of less than 30 years old group was higher than more than 30 years old group(chi-square test, P75%group, 50%rate and embryo transfer rate were correlated with productivity rate. Less than 30 years had higher clinical pregnancy rate. Blastocyst culture of poor

  11. Population-Based Incidence Rates of Diarrheal Disease Associated with Norovirus, Sapovirus, and Astrovirus in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shioda, Kayoko; Cosmas, Leonard; Audi, Allan; Gregoricus, Nicole; Vinjé, Jan; Parashar, Umesh D; Montgomery, Joel M; Feikin, Daniel R; Breiman, Robert F; Hall, Aron J

    2016-01-01

    Diarrheal diseases remain a major cause of mortality in Africa and worldwide. While the burden of rotavirus is well described, population-based rates of disease caused by norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus are lacking, particularly in developing countries. Data on diarrhea cases were collected through a population-based surveillance platform including healthcare encounters and household visits in Kenya. We analyzed data from June 2007 to October 2008 in Lwak, a rural site in western Kenya, and from October 2006 to February 2009 in Kibera, an urban slum. Stool specimens from diarrhea cases of all ages who visited study clinics were tested for norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus by RT-PCR. Of 334 stool specimens from Lwak and 524 from Kibera, 85 (25%) and 159 (30%) were positive for norovirus, 13 (4%) and 31 (6%) for sapovirus, and 28 (8%) and 18 (3%) for astrovirus, respectively. Among norovirus-positive specimens, genogroup II predominated in both sites, detected in 74 (87%) in Lwak and 140 (88%) in Kibera. The adjusted community incidence per 100,000 person-years was the highest for norovirus (Lwak: 9,635; Kibera: 4,116), followed by astrovirus (Lwak: 3,051; Kibera: 440) and sapovirus (Lwak: 1,445; Kibera: 879). For all viruses, the adjusted incidence was higher among children aged sapovirus: 5,556 in Lwak and 4,378 in Kibera; astrovirus: 11,113 in Lwak and 2,814 in Kibera) compared to cases aged ≥5 years. Although limited by a lack of controls, this is the first study to estimate the outpatient and community incidence rates of norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus across the age spectrum in Kenya, suggesting a substantial disease burden imposed by these viruses. By applying adjusted rates, we estimate approximately 2.8-3.3 million, 0.45-0.54 million, and 0.77-0.95 million people become ill with norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus, respectively, every year in Kenya.

  12. Prevalence of human endogenous retroviral element associates with Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wee Hong Woo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Human endogenous retrovirus-H (HERV-H is implicated in leukaemias and lymphomas, but the precise molecular mechanism underlying HERV-mediated carcinogenesis remains unknown. We determined the prevalence of HERV-H in a cross-section of the Singapore population and explored the relationship between HERV-H positivity and incidence rates for Hodgkin's lymphoma in three major ethnic groups of Singapore. We observed that Malays were 1.11 times likely (95% CI=1.05–1.17; P<0.01, and Indians 1.12 times likely (95% CI=1.07–1.18; P<0.01 to be HERV-H positive when compared to Chinese. Interestingly, the incidence rates of Hodgkin's lymphoma for the three races positively correlated to the respective prevalence rate for HERV-H positivity (r=0.9921 for male; r=0.9801 for female, suggesting that viral inheritance in human may predispose certain racial origin unfavourably to malignancy.

  13. The Soft Cumulative Constraint

    CERN Document Server

    Petit, Thierry

    2009-01-01

    This research report presents an extension of Cumulative of Choco constraint solver, which is useful to encode over-constrained cumulative problems. This new global constraint uses sweep and task interval violation-based algorithms.

  14. Global Analysis of a Virus Dynamics Model with General Incidence Function and Cure Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A virus dynamics model with logistic function, general incidence function, and cure rate is considered. By carrying out mathematical analysis, we show that the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number ℛ0≤1. If ℛ0>1, then the infection equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable under some assumptions. Furthermore, we also obtain the conditions for which the model exists an orbitally asymptotically stable periodic solution. Examples are provided to support our analytical conclusions.

  15. The Dynamics of an Eco-Epidemiological Model with Nonlinear Incidence Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raid Kamel Naji

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper treats the dynamical behavior of eco-epidemiological model with nonlinear incidence rate. A Holling type II prey-predator model with SI-type of disease in prey has been proposed and analyzed. The existence, uniqueness, and boundedness of the solution of the system are studied. The local and global dynamical behaviors are investigated. The conditions, which guarantee the occurring of Hopf bifurcation of the system, are established. Finally, further investigations for the global dynamics of the proposed system are carried out with the help of numerical simulations.

  16. QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF AN SEIS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH NONLINEAR INCIDENCE RATE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG La-di; LI Jian-quan

    2006-01-01

    By means of limit theory and Fonda's theorem, an SEIS epidemic model with constant recruitment and the disease-related rate is considered. The incidence term is of the nonlinear form, and the basic reproduction number is found. If the basic reproduction number is less than one, there exists only the disease-free equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease dies out eventually. If the basic reproduction number is greater than one, besides the unstable disease-free equilibrium, there exists also a unique endemic equilibrium, which is locally asymptotically stable, and the disease is uniformly persistent.

  17. Analysis of a novel stochastic SIRS epidemic model with two different saturated incidence rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Zhengbo; Meng, Xinzhu; Lu, Xiao

    2017-04-01

    This paper presents a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with two different nonlinear incidence rates and double epidemic asymmetrical hypothesis, and we devote to develop a mathematical method to obtain the threshold of the stochastic epidemic model. We firstly investigate the boundness and extinction of the stochastic system. Furthermore, we use Ito's formula, the comparison theorem and some new inequalities techniques of stochastic differential systems to discuss persistence in mean of two diseases on three cases. The results indicate that stochastic fluctuations can suppress the disease outbreak. Finally, numerical simulations about different noise disturbance coefficients are carried out to illustrate the obtained theoretical results.

  18. Existence of Traveling Waves for a Delayed SIRS Epidemic Diffusion Model with Saturation Incidence Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Kai Zhou; Qi-Ru Wang

    2014-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the existence of traveling waves for a delayed SIRS epidemic diffusion model with saturation incidence rate. By using the cross-iteration method and Schauder’s fixed point theorem, we reduce the existence of traveling waves to the existence of a pair of upper-lower solutions. By careful analyzsis, we derive the existence of traveling waves connecting the disease-free steady state and the endemic steady state through the establishment of the suitable upper-lower...

  19. Measurement of radiocesium concentration in trees using cumulative gamma radiation dose rate detection systems - A simple presumption for radiocesium concentration in living woods using glass-badge based gamma radiation dose rate detection system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshihara, T.; Hashida, S.N. [Plant Molecular Biology, Laboratory of Environmental Science, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), 1646 Abiko, Chiba 270-1194 (Japan); Kawachi, N.; Suzui, N.; Yin, Y.G.; Fujimaki, S. [Radiotracer Imaging Gr., Quantum Beam Science Center, Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), 1233 Watanuki, Takasaki, Gunma 370-1292 (Japan); Nagao, Y.; Yamaguchi, M. [Takasaki Advanced Radiation Research Institute, Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), 1233 Watanuki, Takasaki, Gunma 370-1292 (Japan)

    2014-07-01

    Radiocesium from the severe accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant on 11 March 2011 contaminates large areas. After this, a doubt for forest products, especially of mushroom, is indelible at the areas. Pruned woody parts and litters are containing a considerable amount of radiocesium, and generates a problem at incineration and composting. These mean that more attentive survey for each subject is expected; however, the present survey system is highly laborious/expensive and/or non-effective for this purpose. On the other hand, we can see a glass-badge based gamma radiation dose rate detection system. This system always utilized to detect a personal cumulative radiation dose, and thus, it is not suitable to separate a radiation from a specific object. However, if we can separate a radiation from a specific object and relate it with the own radiocesium concentration, it would enable us to presume the specific concentration with just an easy monitoring but without a destruction of the target nature and a complicated process including sampling, pre-treatment, and detection. Here, we present the concept of the measurement and results of the trials. First, we set glass-badges (type FS, Chiyoda Technol Corp., Japan) on a part of bough (approximately 10 cm in diameter) of Japanese flowering cherry trees (Prunus x yedoensis cv. Somei-Yoshino) with four different settings: A, a direct setting without any shield; B, a setting with an aluminum shield between bough and the glass-badge; C, a setting with a lead shield between bough and the glass-badge; D, a setting with a lead shield covering the glass-badge to shut the radiation from the surrounding but from bough. The deduction between the amount of each setting should separate a specific radiation of the bough from unlimited radiation from the surrounding. Even if the hourly dose rate is not enough to count the difference, a moderate cumulative dose would clear the difference. In fact, results demonstrated a

  20. Stroke in young adults: Incidence rate, risk factors, treatment and prognosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Gómez, F J; Pérez-Torre, P; DeFelipe, A; Vera, R; Matute, C; Cruz-Culebras, A; Álvarez-Velasco, R; Masjuan, J

    2016-10-01

    To analyse the incidence, risk factors, aetiology, treatment and clinical evolution of young patients with stroke. Retrospective registry of patients aged 55 years or younger hospitalised in a stroke unit during 2014. We recorded the incidence rate for all strokes and analysed demographic data, risk factors, degree of stress, stroke type and aetiology, reperfusion treatments and clinical evolution. The study included 110 patients, the majority of whom were men (60.9%, 1.6:1 ratio). The incidence rate was 13.3% (110 of 830 strokes). Most of the patients had cardiovascular risk factors. Smoking was the most common risk factor (56.4%), followed by arterial hypertension (50%), dyslipidaemia (42.7%), obesity (33%), diabetes (18.2%) and emboligenic heart disease (12.7%). Some 64.3% of the heart disease cases and 51.1% of the dyslipidaemia cases were discovered during hospitalisation. Some 57.2% of the patients experienced psychosocial stress in the stage prior to the stroke. Some 83.6% of the stroke cases were ischaemic, 12.7% were haemorrhagic and 3.6% were venous sinus thrombosis. Of the ischaemic stroke cases, 30.4% were cryptogenic, 23.9% were lacunar, 16.3% were from uncommon causes, 15.2% were atherothrombotic and 14.1% were cardioembolic. Some 78.6% of the cerebral haemorrhage cases were hypertensive. Some 23.3% of the ischaemic stroke cases underwent reperfusion treatments in the acute phase, achieving levels of functional independence at 3 months of 62.5%. The majority of stroke events in patients 55 years of age or younger appear to be related to a high prevalence of classical cardiovascular risk factors and possibly to psychosocial stress. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

  1. Correlation Analysis of Cocoa Consumption Data with Worldwide Incidence Rates of Testicular Cancer and Hypospadias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrizio Giannandrea

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The underlying reasons for the increasing occurrence of male reproductive diseases (MRD such as hypospadias, cryptorchidism, and testicular cancer (TC over the last decades are still unknown. It has been hypothesized that the risk of MRD is determined in utero and that pregnancy dietary intake could also affect MRD risk in the offspring. Various studies in animals reported that cocoa and theobromine, the main stimulant of cocoa, exert toxic effects on the testis, inducing testicular atrophy and impaired sperm quality. A correlation analysis was conducted to examine the possible role of cocoa consumption on the occurrence of selected MRD during the prenatal and early life period of cases. The incidence rates between 1998-2002 of TC in 18 countries obtained from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents were correlated with the average per-capita consumption of cocoa (kg/capita/year (FAOSTAT-Database in these countries from 1965 to 1980, i.e. the period corresponding to the early life of TC cases. In order to test the above correlation in the case of hypospadias, the mean prevalence at birth in 20 countries (1999-2003 with average per-capita consumption of cocoa in these countries in the same period corresponding to pregnancy were used. The consumption of cocoa in the period 1965–80, was most closely correlated with the incidence of TC in young adults (r=0.859; p<0.001. An analogous significant correlation was also observed between early cocoa consumption and the prevalence rates of hypospadias in the period 1999-2003 (r=0.760; p<0.001. Although the ecological approach used in this study cannot provide an answer on the causal relationship between consumption of cocoa in early life and TC and hypospadias, the results are suggestive and indicate the need of further analytic studies to investigate the role of individual exposure to cocoa, particularly during the prenatal and in early life of the patients.

  2. Differences in tuberculosis incidence rates in township and in rural populations in Ntcheu District, Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, A; Harries, A D; Salaniponi, F M

    1999-01-01

    There has been a large upsurge of tuberculosis (TB) in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, mainly as a result of the co-existing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic. Malawi has had a well-run National TB Control Programme (NTP) with good registration and recording of cases. For some years the NTP has had the impression that TB in the country is concentrated around townships and is less prevalent in the rural areas. This impression was investigated in a rural district (Ntcheu District) in Malawi. Data on new TB cases were collected from the district TB register for the years 1992-96 and average annual TB incidence rates per 100,000 for semi-urban and rural populations were calculated for this period. There was a significantly higher incidence of TB, particularly amongst cases with smear-negative pulmonary TB and extrapulmonary TB, in the semi-urban population compared with the rural population. Possible explanations could be higher HIV seroprevalence rates in semi-urban areas compared with rural areas, under-diagnosis at health centres or poor access to medical facilities for rural people.

  3. Evaluation of cardiovascular ischemic event rates in dasatinib-treated patients using standardized incidence ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saglio, Giuseppe; le Coutre, Philipp; Cortes, Jorge; Mayer, Jiří; Rowlings, Philip; Mahon, François-Xavier; Kroog, Glenn; Gooden, Kyna; Subar, Milayna; Shah, Neil P

    2017-08-01

    With high survival rates for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients treated with BCR-ABL1 tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs), emerging consequences, such as arterial ischemic events, require consideration when evaluating treatment options. Cardiovascular ischemic event incidence in clinical trials was evaluated in 2712 dasatinib-treated patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive (Ph+) leukemias from 11 first- and second-line trials (pooled), newly diagnosed CML patients treated with dasatinib or imatinib (DASISION), and prostate cancer patients treated with dasatinib or placebo plus docetaxel/prednisone (READY). Overall, 2-4% of dasatinib-treated patients had cardiovascular ischemic events. Most dasatinib-treated patients with an event had a history of and/or risk factor for atherosclerosis (pooled 77 with history/risk and event/96 with events; DASISION 8/10; READY 15/18). Most cardiovascular ischemic events occurred within 1 year of initiating dasatinib (pooled 69/96; DASISION 7/10; READY 16/18). Comparison of observed and expected event rates through standardized incidence ratios indicates that dasatinib does not increase risk for cardiovascular ischemic events compared with external reference populations.

  4. Ovarian response and cumulative live birth rate of women undergoing in-vitro fertilisation who had discordant anti-Mullerian hormone and antral follicle count measurements: a retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hang Wun Raymond; Lee, Vivian Chi Yan; Lau, Estella Yee Lan; Yeung, William Shu Biu; Ho, Pak Chung; Ng, Ernest Hung Yu

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate ovarian response and cumulative live birth rate of women undergoing in-vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment who had discordant baseline serum anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level and antral follicle count (AFC). This is a retrospective cohort study on 1,046 women undergoing the first IVF cycle in Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong. Subjects receiving standard IVF treatment with the GnRH agonist long protocol were classified according to their quartiles of baseline AMH and AFC measurements after GnRH agonist down-regulation and before commencing ovarian stimulation. The number of retrieved oocytes, ovarian sensitivity index (OSI) and cumulative live-birth rate for each classification category were compared. Among our studied subjects, 32.2% were discordant in their AMH and AFC quartiles. Among them, those having higher AMH within the same AFC quartile had higher number of retrieved oocytes and cumulative live-birth rate. Subjects discordant in AMH and AFC had intermediate OSI which differed significantly compared to those concordant in AMH and AFC on either end. OSI of those discordant in AMH and AFC did not differ significantly whether either AMH or AFC quartile was higher than the other. When AMH and AFC are discordant, the ovarian responsiveness is intermediate between that when both are concordant on either end. Women having higher AMH within the same AFC quartile had higher number of retrieved oocytes and cumulative live-birth rate.

  5. Cyclic patterns of incidence rate for skin malignant melanoma:association with heliogeophysical activity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Borislav D. DIMITROV; Mariana I. RACHKOVA; Penka A. ATANASSOVA

    2008-01-01

    Background: Our previous studies revealed cyclicity in the incidence rate of skin malignant melanoma (SMM; ICD9, Dx: 172) in the Czech Republic (period T=7.50~7.63 years), UK (T=11.00 years) and Bulgaria (T=12.20 years). Incidences com-pared with the sunspot index Rz (lag-period dT=+2, +4, +6, +10 or +12 years) have indicated that maximal rates are most likely to appear on descending slopes of the 11-year solar cycle, i.e., out of phase. We summarized and explored more deeply these cyclic variations and discussed their possible associations with heliogeophysical activity (HGA) components exhibiting similar cyclicity. Methods: Annual incidences of SMM from 5 countries (Czech Republic, UK, Bulgaria, USA and Canada) over various time spans during the years 1964~1992 were analyzed and their correlations with cyclic Rz (sunspot number) and aa (planetary geomagnetic activity) indices were summarized. Periodogram regression analysis with trigonometric approximation and phase-correlation analysis were applied. Results: Previous findings on SMM for the Czech Republic, UK and Bulgaria have been validated, and cyclic patterns have been revealed for USA (T=8.63 years, P<0.05) and Canada (Ontario, T=9.91 years, P<0.10). Also, various 'hypercycles' were established (T=45.5, 42.0, 48.25, 34.5 and 26.5 years, respectively) describing long-term cyclic incidence patterns. The association of SMM for USA and Canada with Rz (dT=+6 and +7 years, respectively) and aa (dT=-10 and +9 years, respectively) was described. Possible interactions of cyclic non-photic influences (UV irradiation, Schumann resonance signal, low-frequency geomagnetic fluctuations) with brain waves absorbance, neuronal calcium dynamics, neuro-endocrine axis modulation, melatonin/serotonin disbalance and skin neuro-immunity impairment as likely causal pathways in melanoma appearance, were also discussed. Conclusion: The above findings on cyclicity and temporal association of SMM with cyclic environmental factors

  6. Falling Plasmodium knowlesi Malaria Death Rate among Adults despite Rising Incidence, Sabah, Malaysia, 2010-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajahram, Giri S; Barber, Bridget E; William, Timothy; Grigg, Matthew J; Menon, Jayaram; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M

    2016-01-01

    Deaths from Plasmodium knowlesi malaria have been linked to delayed parenteral treatment. In Malaysia, early intravenous artesunate is now recommended for all severe malaria cases. We describe P. knowlesi fatalities in Sabah, Malaysia, during 2012-2014 and report species-specific fatality rates based on 2010-2014 case notifications. Sixteen malaria-associated deaths (caused by PCR-confirmed P. knowlesi [7], P. falciparum [7], and P. vivax [1] and microscopy-diagnosed "P. malariae" [1]) were reported during 2012-2014. Six patients with severe P. knowlesi malaria received intravenous artesunate at hospital admission. For persons ≥15 years of age, overall fatality rates during 2010-2014 were 3.4, 4.2, and 1.0 deaths/1,000 P. knowlesi, P. falciparum, and P. vivax notifications, respectively; P. knowlesi-associated fatality rates fell from 9.2 to 1.6 deaths/1,000 notifications. No P. knowlesi-associated deaths occurred among children, despite 373 notified cases. Although P. knowlesi malaria incidence is rising, the notification-fatality rate has decreased, likely due to improved use of intravenous artesunate.

  7. High Mortality Rate of Stomach Cancer Caused Not by High Incidence but Delays in Diagnosis in Aomori Prefecture, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuzaka, Masashi; Tanaka, Rina; Sasaki, Yoshihiro

    2016-10-01

    Background: There are substantial differences in the mortality rates of stomach cancer among the 47 prefectures in Japan, and Aomori prefecture is one of the most severely impacted. The aims of this study were to determine the incidence and mortality rates of stomach cancer in Aomori prefecture in comparison with Japan as a whole and cast light on reasons underlying variation. Methods: Data on stomach cancer cases were extracted from the Aomori Cancer Registry Database. Incidence rates for specific stages at the time of diagnosis were cited from Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan, and mortality rates for stomach cancer in Aomori prefecture and the whole of Japan were obtained from Vital Statistics. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated using the direct method. Results: The age-standardised incidence rate of stomach cancer in Aomori prefecture was higher than in the whole of Japan for males but lower for females. However, the age-standardised mortality rates were higher in Aomori prefecture in both sexes. The proportion of localised cancers was lower in Aomori prefecture than in the whole of Japan for most age groups. Conclusions: The lower rate for localised cancer suggests that higher age-standardised mortality rates are due to delays in diagnosis, despite an attendance rate for stomach cancer screening was higher in Aomori prefecture than in the whole of Japan. One plausible explanation for the failure of successful early detection might be poor quality control during screening implementation that impedes early detection.

  8. Population-Based Incidence Rates of Diarrheal Disease Associated with Norovirus, Sapovirus, and Astrovirus in Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kayoko Shioda

    Full Text Available Diarrheal diseases remain a major cause of mortality in Africa and worldwide. While the burden of rotavirus is well described, population-based rates of disease caused by norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus are lacking, particularly in developing countries.Data on diarrhea cases were collected through a population-based surveillance platform including healthcare encounters and household visits in Kenya. We analyzed data from June 2007 to October 2008 in Lwak, a rural site in western Kenya, and from October 2006 to February 2009 in Kibera, an urban slum. Stool specimens from diarrhea cases of all ages who visited study clinics were tested for norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus by RT-PCR.Of 334 stool specimens from Lwak and 524 from Kibera, 85 (25% and 159 (30% were positive for norovirus, 13 (4% and 31 (6% for sapovirus, and 28 (8% and 18 (3% for astrovirus, respectively. Among norovirus-positive specimens, genogroup II predominated in both sites, detected in 74 (87% in Lwak and 140 (88% in Kibera. The adjusted community incidence per 100,000 person-years was the highest for norovirus (Lwak: 9,635; Kibera: 4,116, followed by astrovirus (Lwak: 3,051; Kibera: 440 and sapovirus (Lwak: 1,445; Kibera: 879. For all viruses, the adjusted incidence was higher among children aged <5 years (norovirus: 22,225 in Lwak and 17,511 in Kibera; sapovirus: 5,556 in Lwak and 4,378 in Kibera; astrovirus: 11,113 in Lwak and 2,814 in Kibera compared to cases aged ≥5 years.Although limited by a lack of controls, this is the first study to estimate the outpatient and community incidence rates of norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus across the age spectrum in Kenya, suggesting a substantial disease burden imposed by these viruses. By applying adjusted rates, we estimate approximately 2.8-3.3 million, 0.45-0.54 million, and 0.77-0.95 million people become ill with norovirus, sapovirus, and astrovirus, respectively, every year in Kenya.

  9. Tuberculosis Incidence and Case Notification Rates in Kosovo and the Balkans in 2012: Cross-country Comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurhasani, Xhevat; Hafizi, Hasan; Toci, Ervin; Burazeri, Genc

    2014-02-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be a considerable burden especially for millions of young adults and disadvantaged people worldwide. The TB incidence and notification rates are good indicators of TB situation in a country. Our aim was to compare TB incidence and notification rates in Kosovo and in seven other Balkan countries. Retrospective epidemiologic analysis of published data on TB incidence and notification rates in eight Balkan countries in 2012. Notification rates were expressed per 100,000 inhabitants and were calculated based on the number of TB cases reported divided by the population of each country under analysis. The TB incidence in Kosovo (47/100,000) was considerably higher compared to its four neighboring countries: Albania (16/100,000), Macedonia, Montenegro (18/100,000) and Serbia (23/100,000). The TB notification rates in Kosovo and other countries closely mimicked the incidence rates in these countries. The exceptionally high TB incidence rate in Kosovo could be due to many factors including low health and medical-seeking behaviors of the local population, poverty and low education levels. Effective interventions should be adapted to the local context in order to increase the chances of success.

  10. Incidence and mutation rates of Huntington's disease in Spain: experience of 9 years of direct genetic testing

    OpenAIRE

    Ramos-Arroyo, M; Moreno, S.; Valiente, A.

    2005-01-01

    Background: Prior to the discovery of the Huntington's disease (HD) mutation, the prevalence, incidence, and new mutation rates for this disease were based on the presence of progressive choreic movements and a positive family history.

  11. Monthly Incidence Rates of Abusive Encounters for Canadian Family Physicians by Patients and Their Families

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baukje (Bo Miedema

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The goal of this study was to examine the monthly incidence rates of abusive encounters for family physicians in Canada. Methods. A 7-page cross-sectional survey. Results. Of the entire study sample (N=720, 29% of the physicians reported having experienced an abusive event in the last month by a patient or patient family member. Abusive incidents were classified as minor, major, or severe. Of the physician participants who reported having been abused, all reported having experienced a minor event, 26% a major, and 8% a severe event. Of the physicians who experienced an abusive event, 55% were not aware of any policies to protect them, 76% did not seek help, and 64% did not report the abusive event. Conclusion. Family physicians are subjected to significant amounts of abuse in their day-to-day practices. Few physicians are aware of workplace policies that could protect them, and fewer report abusive encounters. Physicians would benefit from increased awareness of institutional policies that can protect them against abusive patients and their families and from the development of a national policy.

  12. Computational Modelling and Optimal Control of Ebola Virus Disease with non-Linear Incidence Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaidza, I.; Makinde, O. D.; Okosun, O. K.

    2017-03-01

    The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa has exposed the need to connect modellers and those with relevant data as pivotal to better understanding of how the disease spreads and quantifying the effects of possible interventions. In this paper, we model and analyse the Ebola virus disease with non-linear incidence rate. The epidemic model created is used to describe how the Ebola virus could potentially evolve in a population. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number R 0 to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyse the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time control interventions (education, vaccination, quarantine and safe handling) and provide the cost effective combination of the interventions.

  13. Global stability for delay SIR and SEIR epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Gang; Takeuchi, Yasuhiro; Ma, Wanbiao; Wei, Daijun

    2010-07-01

    In this paper, based on SIR and SEIR epidemic models with a general nonlinear incidence rate, we incorporate time delays into the ordinary differential equation models. In particular, we consider two delay differential equation models in which delays are caused (i) by the latency of the infection in a vector, and (ii) by the latent period in an infected host. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals and using the Lyapunov-LaSalle invariance principle, we prove the global stability of the endemic equilibrium and the disease-free equilibrium for time delays of any length in each model. Our results show that the global properties of equilibria also only depend on the basic reproductive number and that the latent period in a vector does not affect the stability, but the latent period in an infected host plays a positive role to control disease development.

  14. Incidence rates and trends of hip/femur fractures in five European countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Requena, G; Abbing-Karahagopian, V; Huerta, C

    2014-01-01

    Hip fractures represent a major public health challenge worldwide. Multinational studies using a common methodology are scarce. We aimed to estimate the incidence rates (IRs) and trends of hip/femur fractures over the period 2003-2009 in five European countries. The study was performed using seven...... electronic health-care records databases (DBs) from Denmark, The Netherlands, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom, based on the same protocol. Yearly IRs of hip/femur fractures were calculated for the general population and for those aged ≥50 years. Trends over time were evaluated using linear regression......, P femur fractures varied greatly across European countries. With the exception of Denmark, no decreasing trend was observed over the study period....

  15. An SIRS Epidemic Model with Vital Dynamics and a Ratio-Dependent Saturation Incidence Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinli Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an investigation on the dynamics of an epidemic model with vital dynamics and a nonlinear incidence rate of saturated mass action as a function of the ratio of the number of the infectives to that of the susceptibles. The stabilities of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are first studied. Under the assumption of nonexistence of periodic solution, the global dynamics of the model is established: either the number of infective individuals tends to zero as time evolves or it produces bistability in which there is a region such that the disease will persist if the initial position lies in the region and disappears if the initial position lies outside this region. Computer simulation shows such results.

  16. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Vicini, Frank A., E-mail: fvicini@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

    2011-11-15

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2-65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  17. Community-based incidence rate of cardiovascular disease and mortality in 50-75 year old adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Suárez, A; Bascuñana-Quirell, A; Elvira-González, J; Beltrán-Robles, M; Aboza-Lobatón, A; Solís-Díaz, R

    2013-01-01

    Updated information on the incidence of the principal cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cardiovascular mortality is not available in Spain. We have studied the incidence rate of new cases of myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke and cardiovascular mortality in the adult population in Sanlúcar de Barrameda (Spain). A community-based prospective follow-up study was conducted. The study enrolled 858 participants aged 50-75 years who were randomly selected from the population and followed-up for 5 years. Age and gender-adjusted incidence rates of cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular mortality were calculated, obtaining complete information for 855 participants. Prognostic risk factors of new cases of cardiovascular disease were obtained using Cox proportional hazard modeling. The community-based incidence rate of heart failure was 455/100.000 persons-year. The incidence of myocardial infarction, stroke and cardiovascular mortality (506, 216 and 225/100.000 persons-year, respectively) was also very elevated. Male gender, family history of early cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension and sedentary life style were independent risk factors of cardiovascular disease. The community-based incidence rate of heart failure in Sanlúcar de Barrameda (Spain) is very high, and it is the first to be reported in Spain. The incidence of myocardial infarction is among the highest in Spain. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  18. Low incidence rate of overt hypothyroidism compared with hyperthyroidism in an area with moderately low iodine intake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laurberg, P; Bülow Pedersen, I; Pedersen, K M

    1999-01-01

    In areas with relatively high iodine intake, the incidence rate of hypothyroidism is several-fold higher than that of hyperthyroidism. Recently, we found a similarly high prevalence rate of subclinical hypothyroidism compared with hyperthyroidism in a high iodine intake area, while a relatively low...... prevalence of subclinical hypothyroidism was observed in a low iodine intake area. In the present study we compared the incidence rate (newly diagnosed in primary care and at hospital) of overt hypothyroidism with that of hyperthyroidism in a well-defined geographical area in Jutland, Denmark, with an iodine...... intake around 60 microg/day. The number of personsxyears studied was 569,108. Data on hyperthyroidism have been published previously. The overall incidence of hypothyroidism was 13.5/100,000 per year (F/M 22.9/3.6), hyperthyroidism 38.7/100.000 per year (F/M 63.0/13.0). The incidence of hypothyroidism...

  19. Incidence rate and spatio-temporal clustering of type 1 diabetes in Santiago, Chile, from 1997 to 1998

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santos JL

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in the urban area of Santiago, Chile, from March 21, 1997 to March 20, 1998, and to assess the spatio-temporal clustering of cases during that period. METHODS: All sixty-one incident cases were located temporally (day of diagnosis and spatially (place of residence in the area of study. Knox's method was used to assess spatio-temporal clustering of incident cases. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate of type 1 diabetes was 4.11 cases per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years per year (95% confidence interval: 3.06--5.14. The incidence rate seems to have increased since the last estimate of the incidence calculated for the years 1986--1992 in the metropolitan region of Santiago. Different combinations of space-time intervals have been evaluated to assess spatio-temporal clustering. The smallest p-value was found for the combination of critical distances of 750 meters and 60 days (uncorrected p-value = 0.048. CONCLUSIONS: Although these are preliminary results regarding space-time clustering in Santiago, exploratory analysis of the data method would suggest a possible aggregation of incident cases in space-time coordinates.

  20. Incidence rate and spatio-temporal clustering of type 1 diabetes in Santiago, Chile, from 1997 to 1998

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JL Santos

    2001-02-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in the urban area of Santiago, Chile, from March 21, 1997 to March 20, 1998, and to assess the spatio-temporal clustering of cases during that period. METHODS: All sixty-one incident cases were located temporally (day of diagnosis and spatially (place of residence in the area of study. Knox's method was used to assess spatio-temporal clustering of incident cases. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate of type 1 diabetes was 4.11 cases per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years per year (95% confidence interval: 3.06--5.14. The incidence rate seems to have increased since the last estimate of the incidence calculated for the years 1986--1992 in the metropolitan region of Santiago. Different combinations of space-time intervals have been evaluated to assess spatio-temporal clustering. The smallest p-value was found for the combination of critical distances of 750 meters and 60 days (uncorrected p-value = 0.048. CONCLUSIONS: Although these are preliminary results regarding space-time clustering in Santiago, exploratory analysis of the data method would suggest a possible aggregation of incident cases in space-time coordinates.

  1. Association of neighbourhood unemployment rate with incident Type 2 diabetes mellitus in five German regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, G; Wellmann, J; Hartwig, S; Greiser, K H; Moebus, S; Jöckel, K-H; Schipf, S; Völzke, H; Maier, W; Meisinger, C; Tamayo, T; Rathmann, W; Berger, K

    2015-08-01

    To analyse the association of neighbourhood unemployment with incident self-reported physician-diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in a population aged 45-74 years from five German regions. Study participants were linked via their addresses at baseline to particular neighbourhoods. Individual-level data from five population-based studies were pooled and combined with contextual data on neighbourhood unemployment. Type 2 diabetes was assessed according to a self-reported physician diagnosis of diabetes. We estimated proportional hazard models (Weibull distribution) in order to obtain hazard ratios and 95% CIs of Type 2 diabetes mellitus, taking into account interval-censoring and clustering. We included 7250 participants residing in 228 inner city neighbourhoods in five German regions in our analysis. The incidence rate was 12.6 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 11.4-13.8). The risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus was higher in men [hazard ratio 1.79 (95% CI 1.47-2.18)] than in women and higher in people with a low education level [hazard ratio 1.55 (95% CI 1.18-2.02)] than in those with a high education level. Independently of individual-level characteristics, we found a higher risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus in neighbourhoods with high levels of unemployment [quintile 5; hazard ratio 1.72 (95% CI 1.23-2.42)] than in neighbourhoods with low unemployment (quintile 1). Low education level and high neighbourhood unemployment were independently associated with an elevated risk of Type 2 diabetes mellitus. Studies examining the impact of the residential environment on Type 2 diabetes mellitus will provide knowledge that is essential for the identification of high-risk populations. © 2014 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2014 Diabetes UK.

  2. Low incidence of flexion-type supracondylar humerus fractures but high rate of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuoppala, Eira; Parviainen, Roope; Pokka, Tytti; Sirviö, Minna; Serlo, Willy; Sinikumpu, Juha-Jaakko

    2016-08-01

    Background and purpose - Supracondylar humerus fractures are the most common type of elbow fracture in children. A small proportion of them are flexion-type fractures. We analyzed their current incidence, injury history, clinical and radiographic findings, treatment, and outcomes. Patients and methods - We performed a population-based study, including all children <16 years of age. Radiographs were re-analyzed to include only flexion-type supracondylar fractures. Medical records were reviewed and outcomes were evaluated at a mean of 9 years after the injury. In addition, we performed a systematic literature review of all papers published on the topic since 1990 and compared the results with the findings of the current study. Results - During the study period, the rate of flexion-type fractures was 1.2% (7 out of 606 supracondylar humeral fractures). The mean annual incidence was 0.8 per 105. 4 fractures were multidirectionally unstable, according to the Gartland-Wilkins classification. All but 1 were operatively treated. Reduced range of motion, changed carrying angle, and ulnar nerve irritation were the most frequent short-term complications. Finally, in the long-term follow-up, mean carrying angle was 50% more in injured elbows (21°) than in uninjured elbows (14°). 4 patients of the 7 achieved a satisfactory long-term outcome according to Flynn's criteria. Interpretation - Supracondylar humeral flexion-type fractures are rare. They are usually severe injuries, often resulting in short-term and long-term complications regardless of the original surgical fixation used.

  3. Incidence Rates of Clinical Mastitis among Canadian Holsteins Classified as High, Average, or Low Immune Responders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miglior, Filippo; Mallard, Bonnie A.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to compare the incidence rate of clinical mastitis (IRCM) between cows classified as high, average, or low for antibody-mediated immune responses (AMIR) and cell-mediated immune responses (CMIR). In collaboration with the Canadian Bovine Mastitis Research Network, 458 lactating Holsteins from 41 herds were immunized with a type 1 and a type 2 test antigen to stimulate adaptive immune responses. A delayed-type hypersensitivity test to the type 1 test antigen was used as an indicator of CMIR, and serum antibody of the IgG1 isotype to the type 2 test antigen was used for AMIR determination. By using estimated breeding values for these traits, cows were classified as high, average, or low responders. The IRCM was calculated as the number of cases of mastitis experienced over the total time at risk throughout the 2-year study period. High-AMIR cows had an IRCM of 17.1 cases per 100 cow-years, which was significantly lower than average and low responders, with 27.9 and 30.7 cases per 100 cow-years, respectively. Low-AMIR cows tended to have the most severe mastitis. No differences in the IRCM were noted when cows were classified based on CMIR, likely due to the extracellular nature of mastitis-causing pathogens. The results of this study demonstrate the desirability of breeding dairy cattle for enhanced immune responses to decrease the incidence and severity of mastitis in the Canadian dairy industry. PMID:23175290

  4. Incidence rates of specific histological types of lung cancer in Singapore Chinese dialect groups, and their aetiological significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, C H; Day, N E; Shanmugaratnam, K

    1976-03-15

    Significant differences in the incidence levels of lung cancer have been observed among major Chinese dialect groups or communities (Kokkien, Teochew and Cantonese) in Singapore. Among males, the incidence rate is highest in the Hokkiens (age-standardized incidence rate per 100,000 persons per year in Hokkien 67.8, Teochew 55.3, Cantonese 54.0) and among females, it is highest in the Cantonese (Hokkien 12.4, Teochew 12.8, Cantonese 27.2). The present investigation was undertaken to determine the incidence rates of each of the main histological types of lung cancer in the Chinese population and to determine whether there are any correlations between histological patterns and the dialect group differentials that may be of aetiological significance. During the period 1968-1972, a total of 1,747 cases of lung cancer (1,285 males and 462 females) were reported to the Singapore Cancer Registry. It proved possible to type the neoplasms histologically in 476 males (37.0%) and 154 females (33.3%). Age-standardized rates by histological type were computed on the assumption that those histologically typed were a representative sample of all lung cancers. This study shows that Hokkien males have a significantly higher incidence rate of epidermoid carcinoma than the other dialect groups (Hokkien 36.1, Teochew 21.1, Cantonese 17.3). The Cantonese females have significantly higher incidence rates of both epidermoid carcinoma (Hokkien 3.7, Teochew 2.3, Cantonese 5.9) and adenocarcinoma (Hokkien 4.6, Teochew 3.6, Cantonese 11.9). Various sources of bias in studied of this type were examined; it is concluded that the differences in the histologic-specific incidence rates of lung cancer among the various Chinese dialect groups in Singapore are real and not artefactual. The significance of these findings in relation to possible aetiological factors is discussed.

  5. Spatio-seasonal modeling of the incidence rate of malaria in Mozambique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nhalungo Delino

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The objective was to study the seasonal effect on the spatial distribution of the incidence of malaria in children under 10 years old living in the Manhiça district, Mozambique. Methods The data of the clinical malaria incidence were obtained from a study of two cohorts of children followed from December 1996 to July 1999. The cases were obtained by the active detection method. Hierarchical Bayesian models were used to model the incidence of malaria, including spatial correlation nested to climatic season. The models were compared with the deviance information criterion. The age and gender of the children were also taken into account. Results The incidence of malaria is associated with age, period and climate season. The incidence presents a clear spatial pattern, with a higher incidence in the neighbourhoods situated in the north and northeast of the Manhiça area. The transmission of malaria is highest during the wet season but the spatial pattern of malaria does not differ from that during the dry season. Conclusion The incidence of malaria in Manhiça presents a spatial pattern which is independent of the seasonal climatic conditions. The climate modifies the incidence of malaria in the entire region but does not change the spatial pattern of the incidence of this disease. These findings may be useful for the planning of malaria control activities. These activities can be performed taking account that the neighbourhoods with more incidence of malaria do not change over the annual climate seasons.

  6. Spatio-seasonal modeling of the incidence rate of malaria in Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abellana, Rosa; Ascaso, Carlos; Aponte, John; Saute, Francisco; Nhalungo, Delino; Nhacolo, Ariel; Alonso, Pedro

    2008-10-31

    The objective was to study the seasonal effect on the spatial distribution of the incidence of malaria in children under 10 years old living in the Manhiça district, Mozambique. The data of the clinical malaria incidence were obtained from a study of two cohorts of children followed from December 1996 to July 1999. The cases were obtained by the active detection method. Hierarchical Bayesian models were used to model the incidence of malaria, including spatial correlation nested to climatic season. The models were compared with the deviance information criterion. The age and gender of the children were also taken into account. The incidence of malaria is associated with age, period and climate season. The incidence presents a clear spatial pattern, with a higher incidence in the neighbourhoods situated in the north and northeast of the Manhiça area. The transmission of malaria is highest during the wet season but the spatial pattern of malaria does not differ from that during the dry season. The incidence of malaria in Manhiça presents a spatial pattern which is independent of the seasonal climatic conditions. The climate modifies the incidence of malaria in the entire region but does not change the spatial pattern of the incidence of this disease. These findings may be useful for the planning of malaria control activities. These activities can be performed taking account that the neighbourhoods with more incidence of malaria do not change over the annual climate seasons.

  7. Regions of High Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Incidence and Low Bystander CPR Rates in Victoria, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straney, Lahn D.; Bray, Janet E.; Beck, Ben; Finn, Judith; Bernard, Stephen; Dyson, Kylie; Lijovic, Marijana; Smith, Karen

    2015-01-01

    Background Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) remains a major public health issue and research has shown that large regional variation in outcomes exists. Of the interventions associated with survival, the provision of bystander CPR is one of the most important modifiable factors. The aim of this study is to identify census areas with high incidence of OHCA and low rates of bystander CPR in Victoria, Australia Methods We conducted an observational study using prospectively collected population-based OHCA data from the state of Victoria in Australia. Using ArcGIS (ArcMap 10.0), we linked the location of the arrest using the dispatch coordinates (longitude and latitude) to Victorian Local Government Areas (LGAs). We used Bayesian hierarchical models with random effects on each LGA to provide shrunken estimates of the rates of bystander CPR and the incidence rates. Results Over the study period there were 31,019 adult OHCA attended, of which 21,436 (69.1%) cases were of presumed cardiac etiology. Significant variation in the incidence of OHCA among LGAs was observed. There was a 3 fold difference in the incidence rate between the lowest and highest LGAs, ranging from 38.5 to 115.1 cases per 100,000 person-years. The overall rate of bystander CPR for bystander witnessed OHCAs was 62.4%, with the rate increasing from 56.4% in 2008–2010 to 68.6% in 2010–2013. There was a 25.1% absolute difference in bystander CPR rates between the highest and lowest LGAs. Conclusion Significant regional variation in OHCA incidence and bystander CPR rates exists throughout Victoria. Regions with high incidence and low bystander CPR participation can be identified and would make suitable targets for interventions to improve CPR participation rates. PMID:26447844

  8. Regions of High Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Incidence and Low Bystander CPR Rates in Victoria, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lahn D Straney

    Full Text Available Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA remains a major public health issue and research has shown that large regional variation in outcomes exists. Of the interventions associated with survival, the provision of bystander CPR is one of the most important modifiable factors. The aim of this study is to identify census areas with high incidence of OHCA and low rates of bystander CPR in Victoria, Australia.We conducted an observational study using prospectively collected population-based OHCA data from the state of Victoria in Australia. Using ArcGIS (ArcMap 10.0, we linked the location of the arrest using the dispatch coordinates (longitude and latitude to Victorian Local Government Areas (LGAs. We used Bayesian hierarchical models with random effects on each LGA to provide shrunken estimates of the rates of bystander CPR and the incidence rates.Over the study period there were 31,019 adult OHCA attended, of which 21,436 (69.1% cases were of presumed cardiac etiology. Significant variation in the incidence of OHCA among LGAs was observed. There was a 3 fold difference in the incidence rate between the lowest and highest LGAs, ranging from 38.5 to 115.1 cases per 100,000 person-years. The overall rate of bystander CPR for bystander witnessed OHCAs was 62.4%, with the rate increasing from 56.4% in 2008-2010 to 68.6% in 2010-2013. There was a 25.1% absolute difference in bystander CPR rates between the highest and lowest LGAs.Significant regional variation in OHCA incidence and bystander CPR rates exists throughout Victoria. Regions with high incidence and low bystander CPR participation can be identified and would make suitable targets for interventions to improve CPR participation rates.

  9. Regions of High Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Incidence and Low Bystander CPR Rates in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straney, Lahn D; Bray, Janet E; Beck, Ben; Finn, Judith; Bernard, Stephen; Dyson, Kylie; Lijovic, Marijana; Smith, Karen

    2015-01-01

    Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) remains a major public health issue and research has shown that large regional variation in outcomes exists. Of the interventions associated with survival, the provision of bystander CPR is one of the most important modifiable factors. The aim of this study is to identify census areas with high incidence of OHCA and low rates of bystander CPR in Victoria, Australia. We conducted an observational study using prospectively collected population-based OHCA data from the state of Victoria in Australia. Using ArcGIS (ArcMap 10.0), we linked the location of the arrest using the dispatch coordinates (longitude and latitude) to Victorian Local Government Areas (LGAs). We used Bayesian hierarchical models with random effects on each LGA to provide shrunken estimates of the rates of bystander CPR and the incidence rates. Over the study period there were 31,019 adult OHCA attended, of which 21,436 (69.1%) cases were of presumed cardiac etiology. Significant variation in the incidence of OHCA among LGAs was observed. There was a 3 fold difference in the incidence rate between the lowest and highest LGAs, ranging from 38.5 to 115.1 cases per 100,000 person-years. The overall rate of bystander CPR for bystander witnessed OHCAs was 62.4%, with the rate increasing from 56.4% in 2008-2010 to 68.6% in 2010-2013. There was a 25.1% absolute difference in bystander CPR rates between the highest and lowest LGAs. Significant regional variation in OHCA incidence and bystander CPR rates exists throughout Victoria. Regions with high incidence and low bystander CPR participation can be identified and would make suitable targets for interventions to improve CPR participation rates.

  10. Dynamics of a Delayed HIV-1 Infection Model with Saturation Incidence Rate and CTL Immune Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Ting; Liu, Haihong; Xu, Chenglin; Yan, Fang

    2016-12-01

    In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a five-dimensional virus model incorporating saturation incidence rate, CTL immune response and three time delays which represent the latent period, virus production period and immune response delay, respectively. We begin this model by proving the positivity and boundedness of the solutions. Our model admits three possible equilibrium solutions, namely the infection-free equilibrium E0, the infectious equilibrium without immune response E1 and the infectious equilibrium with immune response E2. Moreover, by analyzing corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of each of the feasible equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation at the equilibrium point E2 are established, respectively. Further, by using fluctuation lemma and suitable Lyapunov functionals, it is shown that E0 is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproductive numbers for viral infection R0 is less than unity. When the basic reproductive numbers for immune response R1 is less than unity and R0 is greater than unity, the equilibrium point E1 is globally asymptotically stable. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out for illustrating the theoretical results.

  11. Comparing shingles incidence and complication rates from medical record review and administrative database estimates: how close are they?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yawn, Barbara P; Wollan, Peter; St Sauver, Jennifer

    2011-11-01

    Accurate rates of herpes zoster incidence and complication have become of greater interest as studies have suggested an increasing temporal trend in incidence rates across all age groups and long-term follow-up studies of vaccine effectiveness are required by the Food and Drug Administration. This study compares the results obtained from the most commonly used method to obtain herpes zoster data (rates obtained from administrative data) with results obtained when administrative data are supplemented by medical record review. Administrative billing code data identified 1,959 cases of herpes zoster in Olmsted County, Minnesota, adults between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2001. Of those 1,959 cases, 1,669 (85.2%) could be confirmed by medical record review, a decrease in incidence rate of 14.8%, resulting in a decrease of 0.61/1,000 person-years when adjusted to the US adult population. Complication rates were also significantly different between the 2 methods. It is not clear if the 15% decrease in incidence rates would be seen in every administrative data set or if the lack of confirmation of cases may be variable in both validity and reproducibility between data sets, making estimations in temporal trends and pre/post-vaccine rates difficult to compare across data resources.

  12. Cancer incidence and patient survival rates among the residents in the Pudong New Area of Shanghai between 2002 and 2006

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-Pan Li; Guang-Wen Cao; Qiao Sun; Chen Yang; Bei Yan; Mei-Yu Zhang; Yi-Fei Fu; Li-Ming Yang

    2013-01-01

    With the growing threat of malignancy to health, it is necessary to analyze cancer incidence and patient survival rates among the residents in Pudong New Area of Shanghai to formulate better cancer prevention strategies. A total of 43,613 cancer patients diagnosed between 2002 and 2006 were recruited from the Pudong New Area Cancer Registry. The incidence, observed survival rate, and relative survival rate of patients grouped by sex, age, geographic area, and TNM stage were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier, life table, and Ederer II methods, respectively. Between 2002 and 2006, cancer incidence in Pudong New Area was 349.99 per 100,000 person-years, and the 10 most frequently diseased sites were the lung, stomach, colon and rectum, liver, breast, esophagus, pancreas, brain and central nervous system, thyroid, and bladder. For patients with cancers of the colon and rectum, breast, thyroid, brain and central nervous system, and bladder, the 5-year relative survival rate was greater than 40%, whereas patients with cancers of the liver and pancreas had a 5-year relative survival rate of less than 10%. The 1-year to 5-year survival rates for patients grouped by sex, age, geographic area, and TNM stage differed significantly (al P<0.001). Our results indicate that cancer incidence and patient survival in Pudong New Area vary by tumor type, sex, age, geographic area, and TNM stage.

  13. Functional Time Series Models to Estimate Future Age-Specific Breast Cancer Incidence Rates for Women in Karachi, Pakistan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Farah Yasmeen[1; Sidra Zaheer[2

    2014-01-01

    Background: Breast cancer is the most common female cancer in Pakistan. The incidence of breast cancer in Pakistan is about 2.5 times higher than that in the neighboring countries India and Iran. In Karachi, the most populated city of Pakistan, the age-standardized rate of breast cancer was 69.1 per 100,000 women during 1998-2002, which is the highest recorded rate in Asia. The carcinoma of breast in Pakistan is an enormous public health concern. In this study, we examined the recent trends of breast cancer incidence rates among the women in Karachi. Methods: We obtained the secondary data of breast cancer incidence from various hospitals. They included Jinnah Hospital, KIRAN (Karachi Institute of Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine), and Civil hospital, where the data were available for the years 2004-2011. A total of 5331 new cases of female breast cancer were registered during this period. We analyzed the data in 5-year age groups 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75+. Nonparametric smoothing were used to obtained age-specific incidence curves, and then the curves are decomposed using principal components analysis to fit FTS (functional time series) model. We then used exponential smoothing statspace models to estimate the forecasts of incidence curve and construct prediction intervals. Results: The breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi increased with age for all available years. The rates increased monotonically and are relatively sharp with the age from 15 years to 50 years and then they show variability after the age of 50 years. 10-year forecasts for the female breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi show that the future rates are expected to remain stable for the age-groups 15-50 years, but they will increase for the females of 50-years and over. Hence in future, the newly diagnosed breast cancer cases in the older women in Karachi are expected to increase. Conclusion: Prediction of age

  14. Survey on th incidence of homeless pulmonary tuberculosis infection rate through chest x-ray examination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Mi Young; Shin, Sung Rae [Dept. of Nursing, Sahmyook University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Young Hwan [Dept. of Radiology, Seoul Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lim, Hwan Yeal [Dept. of Medical Business Administration, U1 University, Yeongdong (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-02-15

    This study, Seoul City shelter, you are trying to seek medical cooperation and cure rate increase proposal Yu fndings’s current situation and tuberculosis of homeless tuberculosis. Inspector, and has a total 591 people is targeted to implement an interview after acquiring utilization agreement in studies conducted chest X-ray photography. Of the interview questions, three or more protons, it is determined that the TB symptomatic conducted sputum examination, chest X-ray examination confrms the physician radiology, when sputum examination primarily chromatic fndings the double implemented and conducted by requesting the ship inspection also said inspection sputum acid-fast bacteria if it is true one, respectively. confrmed case result of checking whether there is a difference due to risk factors (Jb) at the chi square black, it was found that there is no statistically significant difference at 95% confidence level. (χ{sup 2}=0.276, p>0.05), suspected case (Ac, Ae) results of examining whether there is a difference due to risk factors in chi square black, that there is a statistically significant difference at 99% confidence level is I found (χ{sup 2}=9.414, p<0.01). The nature of the homeless tuberculosis screening and directed to the distance homeless specifc location are likely to evaluate the actual incidence low and aggressive or management needs, the rationale is allowed insufficient reality is. Through this research, future, for tuberculosis high risk tuberculosis patient, such as homeless to expand the tuberculosis screening of infectious tuberculosis patients in private medical institutions, and one-stop service that chest X-ray examination and sputum examination is carried out at the same time introduced immediately to prevent the inspection and examination, cure, and should establish a foundation that can be up to post administration.

  15. Geographic Variation of the Incidence Rate of Lower Limb Amputation in Australia from 2007-12

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortington, Lauren V.; Akram, Muhammad; Erbas, Bircan; Kohler, Friedbert

    2017-01-01

    In Australia, little is known about how the incidence rate (IR) of lower limb amputation (LLA) varies across the country. While studies in other economically developed countries have shown considerable geographic variation in the IR-LLA, mostly these have not considered whether the effect of common risk factors are the same across regions. Mapping variation of the IR-LLA, and the effect of common risk factors, is an important first step to focus research into areas of greatest need and support the development of regional specific hypotheses for in-depth examination. The aim of this study was to describe the geographic variation in the IR-LLA across Australia and understand whether the effect of common risk factors was the same across regions. Using hospital episode data from the Australian National Hospital Morbidity database and Australian Bureau of Statistics, the all-cause crude and age-standardised IR-LLA in males and females were calculated for the nation and each state and territory. Generalised Linear Models were developed to understand which factors influenced geographic variation in the crude IR-LLA. While the crude and age-standardised IR-LLA in males and females were similar in most states and territories, they were higher in the Northern Territory. The effect of older age, being male and the presence of type 2 diabetes was associated with an increase of IR-LLA in most states and territories. In the Northern Territory, the younger age at amputation confounded the effect of sex and type 2 diabetes. There are likely to be many factors not included in this investigation, such as Indigenous status, that may explain part of the variation in the IR-LLA not captured in our models. Further research is needed to identify regional- and population- specific factors that could be modified to reduce the IR-LLA in all states and territories of Australia. PMID:28118408

  16. Incidence Rate of Acute Encephalitis Syndrome without Specific Treatment in India and Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nagabhushana Rao Potharaju

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: A performance target (PT for the incidence rate (IR of acute encephalitis syndrome (AES was not defined by the World Health Organization (WHO due to lack of data. There is no specific treatment for ~90% of the AES cases. Objectives: (1 To determine the IR of AES not having specific treatment (AESn in two countries, India and Nepal. (2 To suggest the PT. Subjects and Methods: This was a record-based study of the entire population of India and Nepal from 1978 to 2011. The WHO definition was used for inclusion of cases. Cases that had specific treatment were excluded. IR was calculated per 100,000 population per annum. Forecast IR was generated from 2010 to 2013 using time-series analysis. Results: There were 165,461 cases from 1978 to 2011, of which 125,030 cases were from India and 40,431 were from Nepal. The mean IR of India was 0.42 (s 0.24 and that of Nepal was 5.23 (s 3.03. IRs of 2010 and 2011 of India and that of 2011 of Nepal were closer to the mean IR rather than the forecast IR. IR of 2010 of Nepal was closer to the forecast IR. The forecast IR for India for 2012 was 0.49 (0.19-1.06, for 2013 was 0.42 (0.15-0.97 and for Nepal for both 2012 and 2013 was 5.62 (1.53-15.05. Conclusions: IRs were considerably different for India and Nepal. Using the current mean IR as PT for the next year was simple and practical. Using forecasting was complex and, less frequently, useful.

  17. Age – specific incidence rate change at breast Cancer and its different histopathologic subtypes in Iran and Western countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Maryam Sadat; Arab, Maliheh; Nemati Honar, Behzad; Noghabaei, Giti; Safaei, Nazanin; Ghasemi, Tahereh; Farzaneh, Farah; Ashraf Ganjoie, Tahereh

    2013-01-01

    Objective: The aim of the present study was to determine the frequency and age-specific incidence rate of different histopathologic subtypes of breast cancer in Iran, and compare it to neighboring and Western countries and to discuss the probable effective main factors. Methods: National data from cancer registry for 6265 female breast cancer patients were studied in 10 histopathologic groups. Results: The most common tumor was ductal carcinoma (89%). The peak age – specific incidence rate of breast cancer in total, and for epithelial, non-epithelial and ductal carcinomas were all 50-59 years, and it decreased in older age. It is in contrast to US SEER report which shows the incidence increases in higher age. Conclusion: Three main factors including younger age of Iranian patients, probable more ERN tumors and different histopathological profile of breast cancer in Iran might be considered and studied to explain different slope of breast cancer after menopause compared to other countries. PMID:24550952

  18. Determination and comparison of incidence rate and trend ofmorbidity of leukemia and lymphoma in Mazandaran province (1376-1382

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Tahmasebi

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and purpose: Malignancies are the second most important cause of mortality in many countries. Leukemia and lymphoma happen with significantly high incidence rates throughout the world particularly in Iran where it causes remarkable mortality as well as high diagnosis and treatment expenditures for both families and health system. Leukemia and lymphoma totally include about 11 percent of cancers in Mazandaran province. The purpose of this study was a general and specific description of leukemia and lymphoma in Mazandaran province.Materials and Methods: In this study, the medical records of all patients with certain diagnosis of leukemia and lymphoma along with valid laboratory or pathology reports were reviewed from 1376-1382. Data collection was undertaken by Babol health research center affiliated to Tehran University Medical Sciences. This research consists of cross-sectional, descriptive and analytic studies and examines variables including: age, sex, city of inhabitation, year of incidence and type of malignancy. The incidence rates in 100,000 persons of related population have been calculated and analyzed.Results: In Mazandaran province, 1146 cases of leukemia (lymphoidic and myeloidic and lymphoma (Hodgkin's and non Hodgkin's were diagnosed from 1376-1382. an average of 5.9 leukemia and lymphoma cases per 100,000 occure annually. The highest incidence rates were obtained at age of 70 or above (26.4 and the least at age of 0-9 (2.26.The incidence rates in males and females were 7.05 and 4.76 respectively and the male to female incidence rate was 1.48. The highest incidence rate was observed in Babol (7.29 and the least was equally calculated in Neka and Tonekabon (1.47. The highest and lowest incidence were obtained in 1380 (7.75 and 1377 (3.15 respectively. Regarding the type of malignancy, non Hodgkin lymphoma, 2.53 in 100000 persons, was the most prevalent and myeloidic leukemia, 1.07 in 100000 persons, the least prevalent

  19. Incidence rates of in-hospital carpal tunnel syndrome in the general population and possible associations with marital status

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melani Carla

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS is a socially relevant condition associated with biomechanical risk factors. We evaluated age-sex-specific incidence rates of in-hospital cases of CTS in central/northern Italy and explored relations with marital status. Methods Seven regions were considered (overall population, 14.9 million over 3–6-year periods between 1997 and 2002 (when out-of-hospital CTS surgery was extremely rare. Incidence rates of in-hospital cases of CTS were estimated based on 1 codified demographic, diagnostic and intervention data in obligatory discharge records from all Italian public/private hospitals, archived (according to residence on regional databases; 2 demographic general population data for each region. We compared (using the χscore test age-sex-specific rates between married, unmarried, divorced and widowed subsets of the general population. We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs for married/unmarried men and women. Results Age-standardized incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years of in-hospital cases of CTS were 166 in women and 44 in men (106 overall. Married subjects of both sexes showed higher age-specific rates with respect to unmarried men/women. SIRs were calculated comparing married vs unmarried rates of both sexes: 1.59 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.57–1.60 in women, and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.40–1.45 in men. As compared with married women/men, widows/widowers both showed 2–3-fold higher incidence peaks during the fourth decade of life (beyond 50 years of age, widowed subjects showed similar trends to unmarried counterparts. Conclusion This large population-based study illustrates distinct age-related trends in men and women, and also raises the question whether marital status could be associated with CTS in the general population.

  20. The incidence rates of endometrial hyperplasia and endometrial cancer: a four-year population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-Sung Yuk

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction The aim of this study was to determine the incidence rates of endometrial hyperplasia (EH and endometrial cancer (EC in the Republic of Korea using national insurance claim data generated from 2009 to 2012. Materials and Methods Data that were generated from 2009 to 2012 were sourced from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service-National Inpatients Sample database. The data from women who were assigned diagnosis codes representing EH or EC within 1 month of being assigned codes that corresponded to procedures that included endometrial biopsies and several types of gynecologic surgeries to obtain endometrial pathology samples, were selected for analysis. Results Data from 2,477,424 women were entered into the database between 2009 and 2012, and the data from 1,868 women with EH and 868 women with EC were extracted for analysis. The mean ages of the patients were 44.1 ± 0.4 years for those with EH and 52.7 ± 0.6 years for those with EC. The EH and EC incidence rates were 37 per 100,000 woman-years and 8 per 100,000 woman-years, respectively. The EH and EC incidence rates peaked when the women were in their late forties and fifties, respectively. Conclusions The EH and EC incidence rates determined in this study were somewhat lower than those determined from previous studies. Further studies are required that adjust the data for race, menopausal hormone therapy, and obesity.

  1. Incidência de tuberculose e taxa de cura, Brasil, 2000 a 2004 Tuberculosis incidence and cure rates, Brazil, 2000-2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Luiza Bierrenbach

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Descrever a distribuição geográfica da incidência de tuberculose, a partir de um conjunto de indicadores epidemiológicos e operacionais de dados de notificação oficial. MÉTODOS: Dados sobre incidência de tuberculose foram coletados no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação, após processo de pareamento e depuração de registros repetidos. As taxas de incidência de tuberculose foram calculadas segundo unidade geográfica, grupo etário, sexo, forma clínica e regime de tratamento, e padronizadas para a distribuição etária da população com base no Censo de 2000. RESULTADOS: Em 2004, o Brasil apresentou taxa de incidência de 41/100.000 habitantes, com 74.540 casos novos notificados. Desses, 52,8% eram casos pulmonares com baciloscopia positiva, 24,1% estavam em tratamento supervisionado, 63,5% eram provenientes de capitais ou das regiões metropolitanas e 54,9% eram casos curados. Excluindo-se os registros sem preenchimento da variável de desfecho, a proporção de cura alcançou 72,4% para casos novos, 47% para casos novos HIV positivos, 64,9% para recidivas, 64,5% transferências e 40% para reingressos após abandono. A taxa de cura para os casos novos em tratamento supervisionado foi de 77,1%. A proporção de registros sem informação sobre desfecho foi maior em anos mais recentes. CONCLUSÕES: Houve extensas diferenças estaduais em relação à incidência e às categorias de desfecho. Para alcançar a meta de 85% de cura para casos novos e aumentar a cura dos casos HIV positivos e reingressos são necessários esforços adicionais por parte do Programa Nacional de Controle da Tuberculose, incluindo a expansão da estratégia de tratamento diretamente supervisionado.OBJECTIVE: To describe the geographical distribution of tuberculosis incidence rates based on a set of epidemiological and operational indicators from information system database. METHODS: Data from the Sistema de Informação de Agravos

  2. [Seasonality of rotavirus infection in Venezuela: relationship between monthly rotavirus incidence and rainfall rates].

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Chávez, Rosabel

    2015-09-01

    In general, it has been reported that rotavirus infection was detected year round in tropical countries. However, studies in Venezuela and Brazil suggest a seasonal behavior of the infection. On the other hand, some studies link infection with climatic variables such as rainfall. This study analyzes the pattern of behavior of the rotavirus infection in Carabobo-Venezuela (2001-2005), associates the seasonality of the infection with rainfall, and according to the seasonal pattern, estimates the age of greatest risk for infection. The analysis of the rotavirus temporal series and accumulated precipitation was performed with the software SPSS. The infection showed two periods: high incidence (November-April) and low incidence (May-October). Accumulated precipitation presents an opposite behavior. The highest frequency of events (73.8% 573/779) for those born in the period with a low incidence of the virus was recorded at an earlier age (mean age 6.5 +/- 2.0 months) when compared with those born in the station of high incidence (63.5% 568/870, mean age 11.7 +/- 2.2 months). Seasonality of the infection and the inverse relationship between virus incidence and rainfall was demonstrated. In addition, it was found that the period of birth determines the age and risk of infection. This information generated during the preaccine period will be helpful to measure the impact of the vaccine against the rotavirus.

  3. Trends in Hospitalization and Incidence Rate for Syphilitic Uveitis in the United States From 1998 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albini, Thomas; Callaway, Natalia F; Pershing, Suzann; Wang, Sean K; Moshfeghi, Andrew A; Moshfeghi, Darius M

    2017-08-01

    This study evaluates the annual incidence of syphilitic uveitis in the US and trends in hospital admissions over time. Retrospective, longitudinal incidence rate analysis of the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) data from 1998 to 2009. The NIS is a de-identified, random sample dataset of inpatient hospitalizations from 46 states. The number of cases of syphilitic uveitis was defined by (1) International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision (ICD-9) code for syphilis and uveitis or (2) ICD-9 code for syphilitic uveitis. Annual case count, incidence rate, and trend over time were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate associated factors for a syphilitic uveitis diagnosis. The study included 455 310 286 hospitalizations during a 12-year study period with a mean of 37 942 524 patients annually. Syphilis and uveitis was recorded for 1861 patients (155 annually) and syphilitic uveitis was diagnosed in 204 subjects (average of 17 cases annually). There was no change in the incidence of syphilitic uveitis, using either definition, over the study period (P for trend = .46). The mean annual incidence of syphilis and uveitis was 0.0004%, or 4 per million. Syphilitic uveitis had an annual incidence of 0.000045%, or 0.45 per million. The odds of syphilitic uveitis were lower among women (odds ratio [OR] 0.40, CI 0.28-0.57) and increased with comorbid acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (OR 4.52, CI 3.01-6.79). We report the first incidence of syphilitic uveitis in the United States. Fortunately, this remains a rare condition. The results demonstrate no change in the number of inpatient admissions for syphilitic uveitis during the study period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country

    OpenAIRE

    CHONG, K. C.; Fong, H. F.; ZEE, C. Y.

    2013-01-01

    SUMMARY During the surveillance of influenza pandemics, underreported data are a public health challenge that complicates the understanding of pandemic threats and can undermine mitigation efforts. We propose a method to estimate incidence reporting rates at early stages of new influenza pandemics using 2009 pandemic H1N1 as an example. Routine surveillance data and statistics of travellers arriving from Mexico were used. Our method incorporates changes in reporting rates such as linearly inc...

  5. Incidence and mortality rates of selected infection-related cancers in Puerto Rico and in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romero Carlos J

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 2002, 17.8% of the global cancer burden was attributable to infections. This study assessed the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of stomach, liver, and cervical cancer in Puerto Rico (PR for the period 1992-2003 and compared them to those of Hispanics (USH, non-Hispanic Whites (NHW, and non-Hispanic Blacks (NHB in the United States (US. Methods Age-standardized rates [ASR(World] were calculated based on cancer incidence and mortality data from the PR Cancer Central Registry and SEER, using the direct method and the world population as the standard. Annual percent changes (APC were calculated using the Poisson regression model from 1992-2003. Results The incidence and mortality rates from stomach, liver and cervical cancer were lower in NHW than PR; with the exception of mortality from cervical cancer which was similar in both populations. Meanwhile, the incidence rates of stomach, liver and cervical cancers were similar between NHB and PR; except for NHB women who had a lower incidence rate of liver cancer than women in PR. NHB had a lower mortality from liver cancer than persons in PR, and similar mortality from stomach cancer. Conclusions The burden of liver, stomach, and cervical cancer in PR compares to that of USH and NHB and continues to be a public health priority. Public health efforts are necessary to further decrease the burden of cancers associated to infections in these groups, the largest minority population groups in the US. Future studies need to identify factors that may prevent infections with cancer-related agents in these populations. Strategies to increase the use of preventive strategies, such as vaccination and screening, among minority populations should also be developed.

  6. A Resource Cost Aware Cumulative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonis, Helmut; Hadzic, Tarik

    We motivate and introduce an extension of the well-known cumulative constraint which deals with time and volume dependent cost of resources. Our research is primarily interested in scheduling problems under time and volume variable electricity costs, but the constraint equally applies to manpower scheduling when hourly rates differ over time and/or extra personnel incur higher hourly rates. We present a number of possible lower bounds on the cost, including a min-cost flow, different LP and MIP models, as well as greedy algorithms, and provide a theoretical and experimental comparison of the different methods.

  7. Tuberculosis incidence rates during 8 years of follow-up of an antiretroviral treatment cohort in South Africa: comparison with rates in the community.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankur Gupta

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although antiretroviral therapy (ART is known to be associated with time-dependent reductions in tuberculosis (TB incidence, the long-term impact of ART on incidence remains imprecisely defined due to limited duration of follow-up and incomplete CD4 cell count recovery in existing studies. We determined TB incidence in a South African ART cohort with up to 8 years of follow-up and stratified rates according to CD4 cell count recovery. We compared these rates with those of HIV-uninfected individuals living in the same community. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Prospectively collected clinical data on patients receiving ART in a community-based cohort in Cape Town were analysed. 1544 patients with a median follow-up of 5.0 years (IQR 2.4-5.8 were included in the analysis. 484 episodes of incident TB (73.6% culture-confirmed were diagnosed in 424 patients during 6506 person-years (PYs of follow-up. The TB incidence rate during the first year of ART was 12.4 (95% CI 10.8-14.4 cases/100PYs and decreased to 4.92 (95% CI 3.64-8.62 cases/100PYs between 5 and 8 years of ART. During person-time accrued within CD4 cell strata 0-100, 101-200, 201-300, 301-400, 401-500, 501-700 and ≥700 cells/µL, TB incidence rates (95% CI were 25.5 (21.6-30.3, 11.2 (9.4-13.5, 7.9 (6.4-9.7, 5.0 (3.9-6.6, 5.1 (3.8-6.8, 4.1 (3.1-5.4 and 2.7 (1.7-4.5 cases/100PYs, respectively. Overall, 75% (95% CI 70.9-78.8 of TB episodes were recurrent cases. Updated CD4 cell count and viral load measurements were independently associated with long-term TB risk. TB rates during person-time accrued in the highest CD4 cell count stratum (>700 cells/µL were 4.4-fold higher that the rate in HIV uninfected individuals living in the same community (2.7 versus 0.62 cases/100PYs; 95%CI 0.58-0.65. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: TB rates during long-term ART remained substantially greater than rates in the local HIV uninfected populations regardless of duration of ART or attainment of CD4

  8. Incidence Rate of Community-Acquired Sepsis Among Hospitalized Acute Medical Patients-A Population-Based Survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Daniel Pilsgaard; Laursen, Christian B; Jensen, Thøger Gorm

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE:: Sepsis is a frequent cause of admission, but incidence rates based on administrative data have previously produced large differences in estimates. The aim of the study was to estimate the incidence of community-acquired sepsis based on patients' symptoms and clinical findings at arrival...... to the hospital. DESIGN:: Population-based survey. SETTING:: Medical emergency department from September 1, 2010, to August 31, 2011. PATIENTS:: All patients were manually reviewed using a structured protocol in order to identify the presence of infection. Vital signs and laboratory values were collected...

  9. A population-based study of the incidence and complication rates of herpes zoster before zoster vaccine introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yawn, Barbara P; Saddier, Patricia; Wollan, Peter C; St Sauver, Jennifer L; Kurland, Marge J; Sy, Lina S

    2007-11-01

    To establish accurate, up-to-date, baseline epidemiological data for herpes zoster (HZ) before the introduction of the recently licensed HZ vaccine. Using data from January 1, 1996, to October 15, 2005, we conducted a population-based study of adult residents (Greater than or equal to 22 years) of Olmsted County, MN, to determine (by medical record review) the incidence of HZ and the rate of HZ-related complications. Incidence rates were determined by age and sex and adjusted to the US population. A total of 1669 adult residents with a confirmed diagnosis of HZ were identified between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2001. Most (92%) of these patients were immunocompetent and 60% were women. When adjusted to the US adult population, the incidence of HZ was 3.6 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 3.4-3.7), with a temporal increase from 3.2 to 4.1 per 1000 person-years from 1996 to 2001. The incidence of HZ and the rate of HZ-associated complications increased with age, with 68% of cases occurring in those aged 50 years and older. Postherpetic neuralgia occurred in 18% of adult patients with HZ and in 33% of those aged 79 years and older. Overall, 10% of all patients with HZ experienced 1 or more nonpain complications. Our population-based data suggest that HZ primarily affects immunocompetent adults older than 50 years; 1 in 4 experiences some type of HZ-related complication.

  10. Incidence and case fatality rates for acute appendicitis in California. A population-based study of the effects of age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luckmann, R

    1989-05-01

    In 1984, 24,794 appendectomies and abscess drainage procedures were performed for acute appendicitis in California hospitals. Analysis of hospital discharge abstracts revealed age- and sex-specific incidence rates and in-hospital case fatality rates for acute appendicitis lower than previously reported. In persons aged 60 years and older, the case fatality rate for nonperforating appendicitis with appendectomy was 0.7% and for perforating appendicitis and abscess 2.4%. Surgery was delayed beyond the day of admission in 21% of persons aged 40-59 years, 29% of persons aged 60-79 years, and 47% of persons aged 80 years and over. The proportion of cases with perforation increased from 22% to 75% between ages 20 and 80 years. The population incidence of perforating appendicitis changed little after age 20 years, while the incidence of nonperforating cases declined sharply. The high proportion of appendicitis cases with perforation among the elderly may be due to the decreased incidence of nonperforating appendicitis in the elderly and not to a greater propensity for perforation, as previously proposed. Most elderly in California receive timely surgery for appendicitis and tolerate it better than previously reported. Diminished tolerance for intra-abdominal infection may be the primary determinant of the increase in case fatality with age.

  11. Increased Incidence of Campylobacter spp. Infection and High Rates among Children, Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Larisa; Valinsky, Lea; Moran-Gilad, Jacob; Nissan, Israel; Agmon, Vered; Peretz, Chava

    2013-01-01

    During 1999–2010, the annual incidence of Campylobacter spp. infection in Israel increased from 31.04 to 90.99 cases/100,000 population, a yearly increase of 10.24%. Children 26-fold higher than for the 30–<50 age group. PMID:24188185

  12. Age-Specific Incidence Rates for Dementia and Alzheimer Disease in NIA-LOAD/NCRAD and EFIGA Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vardarajan, Badri N.; Faber, Kelley M.; Bird, Thomas D.; Bennett, David A.; Rosenberg, Roger; Boeve, Bradley F.; Graff-Radford, Neill R.; Goate, Alison M.; Farlow, Martin; Sweet, Robert A.; Lantigua, Rafael; Medrano, Martin Z.; Ottman, Ruth; Schaid, Daniel J.; Foroud, Tatiana M.; Mayeux, Richard

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD), defined as onset of symptoms after age 65 years, is the most common form of dementia. Few reports investigate incidence rates in large family-based studies in which the participants were selected for family history of LOAD. OBJECTIVE To determine the incidence rates of dementia and LOAD in unaffected members in the National Institute on Aging Genetics Initiative for Late-Onset Alzheimer Disease/National Cell Repository for Alzheimer Disease (NIA-LOAD/NCRAD) and Estudio Familiar de Influencia Genetica en Alzheimer (EFIGA) family studies. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Families with 2 or more affected siblings who had a clinical or pathological diagnosis of LOAD were recruited as a part of the NIA-LOAD/NCRAD Family Study. A cohort of Caribbean Hispanics with familial LOAD was recruited in a different study at the Taub Institute for Research on Alzheimer’s Disease and the Aging Brain in New York and from clinics in the Dominican Republic as part of the EFIGA study. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Age-specific incidence rates of LOAD were estimated in the unaffected family members in the NIA-LOAD/NCRAD and EFIGA data sets. We restricted analyses to families with follow-up and complete phenotype information, including 396 NIA-LOAD/NCRAD and 242 EFIGA families. Among the 943 at-risk family members in the NIA-LOAD/NCRAD families, 126 (13.4%) developed dementia, of whom 109 (86.5%) met criteria for LOAD. Among 683 at-risk family members in the EFIGA families, 174 (25.5%) developed dementia during the study period, of whom 145 (83.3%) had LOAD. RESULTS The annual incidence rates of dementia and LOAD in the NIA-LOAD/NCRAD families per person-year were 0.03 and 0.03, respectively, in participants aged 65 to 74 years; 0.07 and 0.06, respectively, in those aged 75 to 84 years; and 0.08 and 0.07, respectively, in those 85 years or older. Incidence rates in the EFIGA families were slightly higher, at 0.03 and 0.02, 0.06 and 0.05, 0

  13. Cumulative fatigue damage models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgaw, Michael A.

    1988-01-01

    The problem of calculating expected component life under fatigue loading conditions is complicated by the fact that component loading histories contain, in many cases, cyclic loads of widely varying amplitudes. In such a case a cumulative damage model is required, in addition to a fatigue damage criterion, or life relationship, in order to compute the expected fatigue life. The traditional cumulative damage model used in design is the linear damage rule. This model, while being simple to use, can yield grossly unconservative results under certain loading conditions. Research at the NASA Lewis Research Center has led to the development of a nonlinear cumulative damage model, named the double damage curve approach (DDCA), that has greatly improved predictive capability. This model, which considers the life (or loading) level dependence of damage evolution, was applied successfully to two polycrystalline materials, 316 stainless steel and Haynes 188. The cumulative fatigue behavior of the PWA 1480 single-crystal material is currently being measured to determine the applicability of the DDCA for this material.

  14. Surveillance length and validity of benchmarks for central line-associated bloodstream infection incidence rates in intensive care units.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia S Fontela

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Several national and regional central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSI surveillance programs do not require continuous hospital participation. We evaluated the effect of different hospital participation requirements on the validity of annual CLABSI incidence rate benchmarks for intensive care units (ICUs. METHODS: We estimated the annual pooled CLABSI incidence rates for both a real regional (<100 ICUs and a simulated national (600 ICUs surveillance program, which were used as a reference for the simulations. We simulated scenarios where the annual surveillance participation was randomly or non-randomly reduced. Each scenario's annual pooled CLABSI incidence rate was estimated and compared to the reference rates in terms of validity, bias, and proportion of simulation iterations that presented valid estimates (ideal if ≥ 90%. RESULTS: All random scenarios generated valid CLABSI incidence rates estimates (bias -0.37 to 0.07 CLABSI/1000 CVC-days, while non-random scenarios presented a wide range of valid estimates (0 to 100% and higher bias (-2.18 to 1.27 CLABSI/1000 CVC-days. In random scenarios, the higher the number of participating ICUs, the shorter the participation required to generate ≥ 90% valid replicates. While participation requirements in a countrywide program ranged from 3 to 13 surveillance blocks (1 block = 28 days, requirements for a regional program ranged from 9 to 13 blocks. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the results of our model of national CLABSI reporting, the shortening of participation requirements may be suitable for nationwide ICU CLABSI surveillance programs if participation months are randomly chosen. However, our regional models showed that regional programs should opt for continuous participation to avoid biased benchmarks.

  15. Incidence rate of external genital lesions (EGL) caused by human papillomavirus infection in Czech population

    OpenAIRE

    Petráš, Marek

    2016-01-01

    Incidence of external genital lesions (EGL) caused by human papillomaviruses in the Czech population Marek Petráš Abstract Genital warts (condyloma acuminate) caused up to 90% cases by two human papillomaviruses of type 6 and 11 are not life-threatening diseases but can cause not only clinical symptoms (burning, itching, bleeding, and pain) but also psychosocial stress, embarrassment, and anxiety making for impaired quality of life. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine the p...

  16. Increasing rate of middle ear ventilation tube insertion in children in denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Djurhuus, Bjarki Ditlev; Skytthe, Axel; Christensen, Kaare;

    2014-01-01

    ear ventilation tube insertion performed in Denmark in the period were identified. A possible change in incidence rate over time was examined using Poisson regression analysis, while the cumulative incidence proportion was estimated using life-tables. RESULTS: A total of 502,569 uni- or bilateral...... in incidence rate was found in 1-year-olds with an annual increase of 4.5% (95% confidence interval 4.4-4.6%). Age-specific incidence rates remained at maximum around the age of 14 months throughout the period. The cumulative incidence proportion for the 2010 birth cohort by the time they reach the age of 5...

  17. Impact on mortality and cancer incidence rates of using random invitation from population registers for recruitment to trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woolas Robert

    2011-03-01

    to use the various mortality and incidence rates presented as guides for calculating event rates and power in RCTs involving women. Trial Registration This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978. Medical Research Council (grant no. G990102, Cancer Research UK (grant no. C1479/A2884 and Department of Health

  18. Incidência cumulativa anual de doenças musculoesqueléticas incapacitantes relacionadas ao trabalho em uma área urbana do Brasil Cumulative annual incidence of disabling work-related musculoskeletal disorders in an urban area of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norma Suely Souto Souza

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Estimou-se a incidência cumulativa anual (ICA das doenças musculoesqueléticas incapacitantes que acometem a região cervical e/ou membros superiores (DMEMS relacionadas ao trabalho, entre trabalhadores do Regime Geral da Previdência Social (RGPS de Salvador, Bahia, Brasil. Trabalhadores que receberam benefícios por incapacidade temporária por DMEMS relacionadas ao trabalho foram considerados casos, em 2008. Os dados provêm dos sistemas administrativos do Instituto Nacional do Seguro Social (INSS e do Ministério do Trabalho e Emprego (MTE. A ICA foi de 15 por dez mil trabalhadores. Mulheres, os de menor renda e aqueles que trabalhavam no ramo de atividades financeiras e indústria de transformação tinham maior ICA-DMEMS do que os seus referentes. Mulheres com o menor rendimento (um salário mínimo: R$ 415,00 tiveram a maior ICA-DMEMS, de 123 casos por dez mil. Isso sugere desigualdade na ocorrência dessas enfermidades, indicando a necessidade de priorizar não só ações de prevenção, com foco na ergonomia e organização do trabalho, como também o diagnóstico precoce, tratamento e reabilitação profissional.This study focused on the annual cumulative incidence (ACI of disabling work-related musculoskeletal disorders affecting the neck and/or upper limbs (ULMSD among workers covered by the National Social Insurance System in the city of Salvador, Bahia State, Brazil. Cases were workers who received disability compensation benefits when unable to work due to ULMSD, during the year 2008. The data were obtained from the administrative systems of the National Social Insurance Institute and Ministry of Labor and Employment. ACI was 15 per 10,000 workers. Increased ACI of ULMSD was associated with female gender, lower income, and work in financial activities or manufacturing. Women earning the minimum wage (US$ 64.00 per month or less had the highest ACI of ULMSD (123 per 10,000, suggesting inequalities in the occurrence of these

  19. Incidence of atrial fibrillation in relation to changing heart rate over time in hypertensive patients: the LIFE study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Okin, Peter M; Wachtell, Kristian; Kjeldsen, Sverre E;

    2008-01-01

    Onset of atrial fibrillation (AF) has been linked to changes in autonomic tone, with increasing heart rate (HR) immediately before AF onset in some patients suggesting a possible role of acute increases in sympathetic activity in AF onset. Although losartan therapy and decreasing ECG left...... ventricular hypertrophy are associated with decreased AF incidence, the relationship of HR changes over time to development of AF has not been examined....

  20. Incidence rates of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae clinical isolates in France: a prospective nationwide study in 2011-12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert, Jérôme; Pantel, Alix; Mérens, Audrey; Lavigne, Jean-Philippe; Nicolas-Chanoine, Marie-Hélène

    2014-10-01

    To determine proportions and incidence rates of Enterobacteriaceae producing carbapenemase among those non-susceptible (NS) to carbapenems in France. From November 2011 to April 2012, 71 laboratories recorded non-duplicate Enterobacteriaceae clinical isolates NS to at least one carbapenem and the total number of isolates of the different species. Carbapenem MICs were determined by broth microdilution and the β-lactamase content by DNA microarray. During the study period, the 71 laboratories identified 133 244 Enterobacteriaceae isolates, of which 846 (0.63%) were NS to at least one carbapenem. Carbapenem-NS isolates accounted for 0.07% (61/90 148) among Escherichia coli isolates, 1.1% (111/10 436) among Klebsiella pneumoniae, 8.2% (492/5971) among Enterobacter cloacae and 4.0% (84/2104) among Enterobacter aerogenes. Among the 541 available carbapenem-NS isolates, 222 (including 63 randomly selected E. cloacae) were further analysed after confirmation of carbapenem non-susceptibility. None of the Enterobacter spp. isolates produced carbapenemase. Among the other species, 28 isolates produced carbapenemases (22 OXA-48, 4 KPC and 2 NDM), accounting for an estimated proportion of carbapenemase-producing isolates of 0.08% for all species, 0.01% for E. coli and 0.27% for K. pneumoniae. The incidence-density rate in the participating hospitals was 0.0041 per 1000 hospital-days and the incidence rate was 0.0027 per 100 admissions. The incidence-density rate of carbapenemase-producing isolates per 1000 hospital-days was low and 30-fold lower than that of carbapenem-NS isolates (0.125) and almost 300-fold lower than that of ESBL-producing isolates (1.104) in these French hospitals. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Incidence rates of surgically treated rhegmatogenous retinal detachment among manual workers, non-manual workers and housewives in Tuscany, Italy

    OpenAIRE

    Curti, Stefania; Coggon, David; Baldasseroni, Alberto; Cooke, Robin M. T.; Fresina, Michela; Campos, Emilio C; Semeraro, Francesco; Zanardi, Francesca; Farioli, Andrea; Violante, Francesco S.; Mattioli, Stefano

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Candidate risk factors for idiopathic rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD) include heavy manual handling (requiring Valsalva’s maneuver). We assessed incidence rates of surgically treated idiopathic RRD among manual workers, non-manual workers and housewives resident in Tuscany, Italy. Methods We retrieved all hospital discharge records bearing a principal diagnosis corresponding to RRD coupled with retinal surgery for any resident of Tuscany during 1997–2009. After elimination of ...

  2. Studies on Lyme disease incidence rates in selected groups of forestry workers in West Pomerania, 2005–2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Stawicki

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: The data collected by sanitary-epidemiological stations in 2005–2014 were analyzed to determine the incidence rates of borreliosis Lyme disease in the West Pomerania group of workers exposed to tick bites. Material and Methods: It was assumed that an adequate comparison of official epidemiological data with the data concerning the number of exposed people, is an indispensable condition for assessing properly the trend in Lyme disease incidence rates, concerning at the same time a real scale of occupational exposure. The study covered a selected group of forestry workers, i.e., white-collar staff employed in different units of the State Forests National Forest Holding with their seats in West Pomerania. The aim of the research was to process and analyze the data on workers employed in the forest sector and their positions, requested from district sanitary-epidemiological stations. Results: In the years concerned 282 cases of the occupational disease were recorded mainly in the groups of forest rangers, junior foresters and forest service inspectors. The values of the incidence factor exhibit high variability with the major share of cases recorded in the years 2008–2010 that accounted for 61.8% of the total occurrences concerned. The incidence in the years 2008, 2009 and 2010 amounted to 2418, 2828 and 2646 cases per 100 000 employees, respectively. Conclusions: The results show that previously published information about the incidence of Lyme disease in the agriculture, forestry and hunting sector, did not fully illustrate a real scale of occupational risk. Med Pr 2017;68(2:211–220

  3. Incidence Rate of Concomitant Systemic Diseases in the Aging Population with Postmenopausal Osteoporosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selçuk Sayılır

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the concomitant systemic diseases with postmenopausal osteoporosis and to investigate the points to be considered in treatment approach of patients with osteoporosis. Materials and Methods: The study included 110 female patients admitted to our clinic and followed up after postmenopausal osteoporosis diagnosis. Besides the demographic data; the concomitant diseases of the patients such as hypertension, hypo-hyperthyroidism, diabetes mellitus, Alzheimer’s disease, malignancy, osteoarthritis, gastrointestinal system diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD- asthma and depression were also recorded. Results: The mean age of the patients included in our study was 65.9±9.8 years. When the concomitant systemic diseases were examined; 40 patients had hypertension, 32 patients had osteoarthritis, 24 patients had gastrointestinal tract problems, 22 patients had thyroid disease, 21 patients had depression, 15 patients had hyperlipidemia, 12 patients had diabetes mellitus, 10 patients had COPD - asthma, 7 patients had cardiac diseases, 5 patients had malignancy and 2 patients had Alzheimer disease. Conclusion: Osteoporosis is a common disease in the geriatric population. As a chronic disease with an increasing incidence with aging; it can cause many health problems, prevalently pathological bone fractures, in our country and all over the world. Constitutively, prophylaxis of osteoporosis should be the first step. Because systemic diseases with increasing incidence with aging may affect the severity of osteoporosis and impair the treatment; it is important for both clinicians and the society to have sufficient information about osteoporosis.

  4. Stability and Hopf Bifurcation in a Delayed HIV Infection Model with General Incidence Rate and Immune Impairment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fuxiang; Jiang, Zhichao

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the dynamical behavior of a delayed HIV infection model with general incidence rate and immune impairment. We derive two threshold parameters, the basic reproduction number R 0 and the immune response reproduction number R 1. By using Lyapunov functional and LaSalle invariance principle, we prove the global stability of the infection-free equilibrium and the infected equilibrium without immunity. Furthermore, the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the infected equilibrium with CTL response is also studied. By theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, the effect of the immune impairment rate on the stability of the infected equilibrium with CTL response has been studied. PMID:26413141

  5. Stability and Hopf Bifurcation in a Delayed HIV Infection Model with General Incidence Rate and Immune Impairment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuxiang Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the dynamical behavior of a delayed HIV infection model with general incidence rate and immune impairment. We derive two threshold parameters, the basic reproduction number R0 and the immune response reproduction number R1. By using Lyapunov functional and LaSalle invariance principle, we prove the global stability of the infection-free equilibrium and the infected equilibrium without immunity. Furthermore, the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the infected equilibrium with CTL response is also studied. By theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, the effect of the immune impairment rate on the stability of the infected equilibrium with CTL response has been studied.

  6. Stability and Hopf Bifurcation in a Delayed HIV Infection Model with General Incidence Rate and Immune Impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fuxiang; Ma, Wanbiao; Jiang, Zhichao; Li, Dan

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the dynamical behavior of a delayed HIV infection model with general incidence rate and immune impairment. We derive two threshold parameters, the basic reproduction number R 0 and the immune response reproduction number R 1. By using Lyapunov functional and LaSalle invariance principle, we prove the global stability of the infection-free equilibrium and the infected equilibrium without immunity. Furthermore, the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the infected equilibrium with CTL response is also studied. By theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, the effect of the immune impairment rate on the stability of the infected equilibrium with CTL response has been studied.

  7. Lyapunov Functions for a Class of Discrete SIRS Epidemic Models with Nonlinear Incidence Rate and Varying Population Sizes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the dynamical behaviors of a class of discrete SIRS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate and varying population sizes. The model is required to possess different death rates for the susceptible, infectious, recovered, and constant recruitment into the susceptible class, infectious class, and recovered class, respectively. By using the inductive method, the positivity and boundedness of all solutions are obtained. Furthermore, by constructing new discrete type Lyapunov functions, the sufficient and necessary conditions on the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are established.

  8. Cumulative and current exposure to potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals and development of chronic kidney disease in HIV-positive individuals with a normal baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens D; Ross, Michael

    2016-01-01

    of exposure to antiretrovirals and the development of chronic kidney disease in people with initially normal renal function, as measured by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). METHODS: In this prospective international cohort study, HIV-positive adult participants (aged ≥16 years) from the D...

  9. Combined effects of family history of CVD and heart rate on ischemic stroke incidence among Inner Mongolians in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yipeng; Tian, Yunfan; Zhong, Chongke; Batu, Buren; Xu, Tian; Li, Hongmei; Zhang, Mingzhi; Wang, Aili; Zhang, Yonghong

    2016-05-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the combined effects of family history of cardiovascular diseases (FHCVD) and heart rate on ischemic stroke incidence among Inner Mongolians in China. A prospective cohort study was conducted among 2589 participants aged 20 years and older from Inner Mongolia, China. The participants were divided into four groups according to status of FHCVD and heart rate and followed up from June 2002 to July 2012. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the combined effects of FHCVD and heart rate on the incidence of ischemic stroke. A total of 76 ischemic stroke occurred during the follow-up period. The observed ischemic stroke cases tended to be older and male, and had higher prevalence of smoking, drinking, hypertension and FHCVD as well as higher systolic and diastolic blood pressures at baseline compared with those who did not experience ischemic stroke. Age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of ischemic stroke in the participants with both FHCVD and heart rate ≥ 80 were 2.89 (1.51-5.53), compared with those without FHCVD and heart rate < 80. After multiple adjustment, the association between ischemic stroke risk and both FHCVD and heart rate ≥ 80 remained statistically significant (hazard ratio, 2.47; 95% confidence interval: 1.22-5.01). Our main finding that participants with both FHCVD and faster heart rate have the highest risk of ischemic stroke suggests that faster heart rate may increase the risk of ischemic stroke among people with FHCVD.

  10. Reduced rate of human papillomavirus infection and genetic overtransmission of TP53 72C polymorphic variant lower cervical cancer incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsbeih, Ghazi A; Al-Harbi, Najla M; Bin Judia, Sara S; Khoja, Hatim A; Shoukri, Mohamed M; Tulbah, Asma M

    2017-07-01

    Cervical cancer is a predominantly human papillomavirus (HPV)-driven disease worldwide. However, its incidence is unexplainably low in western Asia, including Saudi Arabia. Using this paradigm, we investigated the role of HPV infection rate and host genetic predisposition in TP53 G72C single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) presumed to affect cancer incidence. Patients treated between 1990 and 2012 were reviewed, and a series of 232 invasive cervical cancer cases were studied and compared with 313 matched controls without cancer. SNP was genotyped by way of direct sequencing. HPV linear array analysis was used to detect and genotype HPV in tumor samples. The incidence of cervical cancer revealed bimodal peaks at 42.5 years, with a slighter rebound at 60.8 years. Among all cases, 77% were HPV-positive and 16 HPV genotypes were detected-mostly genotypes 16 (75%) and 18 (9%)-with no difference by age, histology, or geographical region. Although the TP53 G72C genotype was not associated with overall cervical cancer risk, it was significantly associated with HPV positivity (odds ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.90; P = .016). Furthermore, the variant C allele was significantly overtransmitted in the population (P Cervical cancer incidence displays bimodal curve peaking at a young age with secondary rebound at older age. The combination of relative low HPV infection and variant TP53 72C allele overtransmission provide a plausible explanation for the low incidence of cervical cancer in our population. Therefore, HPV screening and host SNP genotyping may provide more relevant biomarkers to gauge the risk of developing cervical cancer. Cancer 2017;123:2459-66. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

  11. Sports members' participation in assessment of incidence rate of injuries in five sports from records of hospital-based clinical treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, J; ten Duis, HJ

    This study is about the incidence rate of sports injuries in five different types of sports, gymnastics, soccer, volleyball, hockey, and basketball, for which 5,154 patients were admitted to the Emergency Unit of the Groningen University Hospital during the period 1990 through 1994. Incidence rate

  12. Sports members' participation in assessment of incidence rate of injuries in five sports from records of hospital-based clinical treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, J; ten Duis, HJ

    1998-01-01

    This study is about the incidence rate of sports injuries in five different types of sports, gymnastics, soccer, volleyball, hockey, and basketball, for which 5,154 patients were admitted to the Emergency Unit of the Groningen University Hospital during the period 1990 through 1994. Incidence rate h

  13. Sports members' participation in assessment of incidence rate of injuries in five sports from records of hospital-based clinical treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, J; ten Duis, HJ

    1998-01-01

    This study is about the incidence rate of sports injuries in five different types of sports, gymnastics, soccer, volleyball, hockey, and basketball, for which 5,154 patients were admitted to the Emergency Unit of the Groningen University Hospital during the period 1990 through 1994. Incidence rate h

  14. A prospective study of physician-observed concussions during junior ice hockey: implications for incidence rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Echlin, Paul Sean; Tator, Charles H; Cusimano, Michael D; Cantu, Robert C; Taunton, Jack E; Upshur, Ross E G; Hall, Craig R; Johnson, Andrew M; Forwell, Lorie A; Skopelja, Elaine N

    2010-11-01

    The objective of this study was to measure the incidence of concussion (scaled relative to number of athlete exposures) and recurrent concussion within 2 teams of fourth-tier junior ice hockey players (16-21 years old) during 1 regular season. A prospective cohort study called the Hockey Concussion Education Project was conducted during 1 junior ice hockey regular season (2009-2010) involving 67 male fourth-tier ice hockey players (mean age 18.2 ± 1.2 years, range 16-21 years) from 2 teams. Prior to the start of the season, every player underwent baseline assessments using the Sideline Concussion Assessment Tool 2 (SCAT2) and the Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Test (ImPACT). The study protocol also required players who entered the study during the season to complete baseline SCAT2 and ImPACT testing. If the protocol was not followed, the postinjury test results of a player without true baseline test results would be compared against previously established age and gender group normative levels. Each regular season game was observed by a qualified physician and at least 1 other neutral nonphysician observer. Players who suffered a suspected concussion were evaluated at the game. If a concussion diagnosis was made, the player was subsequently examined in the physician's office for a full clinical evaluation and the SCAT2 and ImPACT were repeated. Based on these evaluations, players were counseled on the decision of when to return to play. Athlete exposure was defined as 1 game played by 1 athlete. Twenty-one concussions occurred during the 52 physician-observed games (incidence 21.5 concussions per 1000 athlete exposures). Five players experienced repeat concussions. No concussions were reported during practice sessions. A concussion was diagnosed by the physician in 19 (36.5%) of the 52 observed games. One of the 5 individuals who suffered a repeat concussion sustained his initial concussion in a regular season game that was not observed by a

  15. A comparative population-based study of prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva, Switzerland from 1973 to 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Cynthia

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed malignancy in men in Sweden and Geneva, and the third most common in men in Singapore. This population-based study describes trends in the incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva (Switzerland from 1973 to 2006 and explores possible explanations for these different trends. Methods Data from patients diagnosed with prostate cancer were extracted from national cancer registries in Singapore (n = 5,172, Sweden (n = 188,783 and Geneva (n = 5,755 from 1973 to 2006. Trends of incidence and mortality were reported using the Poisson and negative binomial regression models. The age, period and birth-cohort were tested as predictors of incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer. Results Incidence rates of prostate cancer increased over all time periods for all three populations. Based on the age-period-cohort analysis, older age and later period of diagnosis were associated with a higher incidence of prostate cancer, whereas older age and earlier period were associated with higher mortality rates for prostate cancer in all three countries. Conclusions This study demonstrated an overall increase in incidence rates and decrease in mortality rates in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva. Both incidence and mortality rates were much lower in Singapore. The period effect is a stronger predictor of incidence and mortality of prostate cancer than the birth-cohort effect.

  16. Cumulative Timers for Microprocessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battle, John O.

    2007-01-01

    It has been proposed to equip future microprocessors with electronic cumulative timers, for essentially the same reasons for which land vehicles are equipped with odometers (total-distance-traveled meters) and aircraft are equipped with Hobbs meters (total-engine-operating time meters). Heretofore, there has been no way to determine the amount of use to which a microprocessor (or a product containing a microprocessor) has been subjected. The proposed timers would count all microprocessor clock cycles and could only be read by means of microprocessor instructions but, like odometers and Hobbs meters, could never be reset to zero without physically damaging the chip.

  17. Cumulative Vehicle Routing Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Kara, &#;mdat; Kara, Bahar Yeti&#;; Yeti&#;, M. Kadri

    2008-01-01

    This paper proposes a new objective function and corresponding formulations for the vehicle routing problem. The new cost function defined as the product of the distance of the arc and the flow on that arc. We call a vehicle routing problem with this new objective function as the Cumulative Vehicle Routing Problem (CumVRP). Integer programming formulations with O(n2) binary variables and O(n2) constraints are developed for both collection and delivery cases. We show that the CumVRP is a gener...

  18. Cumulative Doses of T-Cell Depleting Antibody and Cancer Risk after Kidney Transplantation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny H C Chen

    Full Text Available T-cell depleting antibody is associated with an increased risk of cancer after kidney transplantation, but a dose-dependent relationship has not been established. This study aimed to determine the association between cumulative doses of T-cell depleting antibody and the risk of cancer after kidney transplantation. Using data from the Australian and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry between 1997-2012, we assessed the risk of incident cancer and cumulative doses of T-cell depleting antibody using adjusted Cox regression models. Of the 503 kidney transplant recipients with 2835 person-years of follow-up, 276 (55%, 209 (41% and 18 (4% patients received T-cell depleting antibody for induction, rejection or induction and rejection respectively. The overall cancer incidence rate was 1,118 cancers per 100,000 patient-years, with 975, 1093 and 1377 cancers per 100,000 patient-years among those who had received 1-5 doses, 6-10 doses and >10 doses, respectively. There was no association between cumulative doses of T cell depleting antibody and risk of incident cancer (1-5: referent, 6-10: adjusted hazard ratio (HR 1.19, 95%CI 0.48-2.95, >10: HR 1.42, 95%CI 0.50-4.02, p = 0.801. This lack of association is contradictory to our hypothesis and is likely attributed to the low event rates resulting in insufficient power to detect significant differences.

  19. 鲜胚移植后累计妊娠率及其影响因素%Cumulative pregnancy rates after fresh embryo transfer and its influencing factors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    宋天然; 孙海翔; 王玢

    2015-01-01

    Objective To investigate the pregnancy outcomes and factors influencing on fertilization in vitro and embryo transfer (IVF‐ET ) .Methods The pregnancy outcomes of 1660 women after fresh embryo IVF were analyzed ,who were divided into groups of A (got pregnant) and B (failed to get pregnant) .The women failed to get pregnant after fresh embryo transfer and had frozen embryo transfer were divided into groups of C (got pregnant) and D(failed to get pregnant) .The factors influencing on pregnancy outcomes were analyzed .Results The pregnancy rate was higher in women with fresh embryo IVF than that in those with frozen embryo transfer (60.12% vs .53.15% ) (P<0 .05) .The numbers of egg and effective embryos ,effective embryo ratio ,endometrial thickness and embryo score in group A were higher than those in group B (P<0 .05) .The number of effective embryos ,effective embryo ratio and the number of transferred embryos in group C were higher than those in group D(P<0 .05) .The clinical pregnancy rate of group A was higher than that in group C (P<0 .05) .The clinical pregnancy rate for the third time of frozen embryo transfer was significantly decreased(P<0 .05) .Conclusion Fresh embryo transfer should be taken as the first choice .Frozen embryo transfer still has a higher success rate for fertilization .Some special causes of infertility should be considered in the cases failed to get pregnant after second frozen embryo transfer and the eggs should be taken again if necessary .%目的:探讨体外受精‐胚胎移植妊娠结局及其影响因素。方法回顾性分析1660例鲜胚移植患者临床结局。根据是否临床妊娠分为妊娠组(A组)和非妊娠组(B组);根据冻胚移植结果,新鲜周期未获得活胎分娩的妇女分为妊娠组(C组)和未妊娠组(D组)。分析影响妊娠结局的相关因素。结果鲜胚移植临床妊娠率60.12%(998/1660),高于冻胚移植临床妊娠率53.15%(253/476)( P<0

  20. Gender-age interaction in incidence rates of childhood emotional disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wesselhoeft, R; Pedersen, C B; Mortensen, P B

    2014-01-01

    rates of emotional disorders throughout childhood. METHOD: This is a population-based cohort study of 907 806 Danish 3- to 18-year-olds. The outcome was assignment of an emotional disorder diagnosis based on in-patient and out-patient data from The Danish Psychiatric Central Register. Outcome measures...

  1. Incidence Rates of Deliberate Self-Harm in Denmark 1994-2011

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reuter Morthorst, Britt; Soegaard, Bodil; Nordentoft, Merete

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The validity and reliability of suicide statistics have been questioned and few nationwide studies of deliberate self-harm have been presented. AIM: To calculate rates of deliberate self-harm in Denmark in order to investigate trends and assess the reliability of hospital records. MET...

  2. Data study of death rate and cancer incidence among Thule workers, 2005; Registerundersoegelse af doedelighed og kraeftforekomst blandt Thulearbejdere, 2005

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juel, K. [Statens Insti. for Folkesundhed, Copenhagen (Denmark); Engholm, G.; Storm, H. [Kraeftens Bekaempelse, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2005-12-01

    January 21st, 1968, an American B52 bomber with nuclear weapons aboard crashed close to the Thule air-base in Greenland. In 1986 suspicions arose that there might be increased disease incidences and death rate among the employees at the base that were involved in the clearing operations. During 1986 - 1995, several health studies were made of the Thule workers. These studies of death rate, cancer, hospitalization, and fertility did not show any differences between the Thule workers from the clearing operations and those not involved in the clearing. The present study shows no difference in total death rate among the clearing workers compared to other workers. The same results were found for cancer mortality, circulatory diseases, pulmonary diseases, natural causes, and accidents. As the previous studies showed, the present study shows that there were a slightly less number of suicides among the clearing workers. The data analyses show with great certainty that the Thule workers as a group do not have a great excessive mortality or an increased cancer incidence caused by the aircraft crash. Thus, the present results fall in line with the previous investigations. (ln)

  3. Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence Rates by Histological Type in 1975–2008: A Population-Based Study in Osaka, Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fukuaki Lee Kinoshita

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Monitoring trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality is important for the evaluation of cancer control activities. We investigated recent trends in age-standardized incidence rates by histological type of lung cancer in Osaka, Japan. Methods: Cancer incidence data for 1975–2008 were obtained from the Osaka Cancer Registry. Lung cancer mortality data with population data in Osaka during 1975–2012 were obtained from vital statistics. We examined trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for all histological types and age-standardized incidence rates by histological type and age group using a joinpoint regression model. Results: The age-standardized incidence rate of lung cancer levelled off or slightly increased from 1975–2008, with an annual percentage change of 0.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1%–0.4% for males and 1.1% (95% CI, 0.9%–1.3% for females, and the mortality rate decreased by 0.9% (95% CI, 1.2%–0.7% for males and 0.5% (95% CI, 0.8%–0.3% for females. The incidence rates of squamous cell carcinoma (SQC and small cell carcinoma (SMC significantly decreased for both genders, whereas that of adenocarcinoma (ADC significantly increased among almost all age groups in both genders. Conclusions: The incidence rates of SQC and SMC decreased with the decline in smoking prevalence, which probably explains the change in trends in the incidence rates of lung cancer from the mid-1980s. However, the reason for the increase in ADC remains unclear. Therefore, trends in incidence rates of lung cancer should be carefully monitored, especially for ADC, and the associations between ADC and its possible risk factors should be studied.

  4. Global stability of a multiple delayed viral infection model with general incidence rate and an application to HIV infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Yu

    2015-06-01

    In this paper, the dynamical behavior of a viral infection model with general incidence rate and two time delays is studied. By using the Lyapunov functional and LaSalle invariance principle, the global stabilities of the infection-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are obtained. We obtain a threshold of the global stability for the uninfected equilibrium, which means the disease will be under control eventually. These results can be applied to a variety of viral infections of disease that would make it possible to devise optimal treatment strategies. Numerical simulations with application to HIV infection are given to verify the analytical results.

  5. Aflatoxin Contamination of Red Chili Pepper From Bolivia and Peru, Countries with High Gallbladder Cancer Incidence Rates

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Chilean red chili peppers contaminated with aflatoxins were reported in a previous study. If the development of gallbladder cancer (GBC) in Chile is associated with a high level of consumption of aflatoxin-contaminated red chili peppers, such peppers from other countries having a high GBC incidence rate may also be contaminated with aflatoxins. We aimed to determine whether this might be the case for red chili peppers from Bolivia and Peru. A total of 7 samples (3 from Bolivia, 4 from Peru) a...

  6. Cumulative mortality rates in Aedes polynesiensis after feeding on polynesian Wuchereria bancrofti carriers treated with single doses of ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine and placebo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartel, J L; Sechan, Y; Spiegel, A; Nguyen, L; Barbazan, P; Martin, P M; Roux, J F

    1991-12-01

    During a therapeutic trial, batches of 672 to 1979 laboratory-bred Aedes polynesiensis, the mosquito vector of lymphatic filariasis in French Polynesia, were fed on Wuchereria bancrofti carriers one, three and six months after they had been treated with either single doses of ivermectin at 100 mcg/kg, diethylcarbamazine (DEC) at 3 and 6 mg/kg or placebo. High mortality rates were observed during the 15-day period following the blood-meal in mosquitoes fed on carriers treated with microfilaricidal drugs and were significantly higher in mosquitoes fed on carriers treated with ivermectin than in those fed on carriers treated with DEC. Though its intensity decreased with the passage of time, the phenomenon was observed in mosquitoes fed on carriers up to six months after treatment, especially in those fed on carriers treated with ivermectin. By decreasing the number of mosquitoes able to transmit the infection, this lethal effect on Ae. polynesiensis might represent an additional advantage of ivermectin in lymphatic filariasis control programs.

  7. Enhanced surveillance for measles in low-incidence territories of the Russian Federation: defining a rate for suspected case investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tikhonova, N T; Bichurina, M A; Gerasimova, A G; Zvirkun, O V; Vladimerova, N P; Mamaeva, T; Lipskaya, G; Elsaadany, S; Spika, J S

    2011-02-01

    The rate of case investigation for measles-like illness (MLI) is an important indicator for the quality of measles surveillance in countries targeting measles elimination. However, a benchmark rate is still being discussed. We assessed different rates of investigation in 11 territories of the Russian Federation with low reported measles incidence during the previous 4-7 years. Each territory maintained their existing surveillance activities and also undertook additional surveillance activities for MLI over a 3-year period. The annual routine rate of investigation varied from 0·06 to 1·8/100,000 population; the overall rate of investigation, including enhanced surveillance, varied from 1·4 to 7·2/100,000. Forty-nine (30·8%) of 159 measles cases detected were identified through enhanced surveillance. Based on the results of this study, the Russian Federation concluded that a rate of routine investigation of 2/100,000 provided the best balance between available resources and sensitivity for detection of measles cases.

  8. The incidence, hospital expenditure, and, 30 day and 1 year mortality rates of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Chien-Lung; Ting, Hsien-Wei; Huang, Hsin-Tsung

    2014-01-01

    The risks of morbidity and mortality are high in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH). The medical care resources associated with sICH are also substantial. This study aimed to evaluate the medical expenditure for sICH patients in Taiwan. We analyzed the National Health Insurance Research Database from 2005 to 2010. The inclusion criterion was first-event sICH; traumatic ICH patients were excluded. Student's t-test, multiple linear regression and the chi-squared test were employed as the statistical methods. Our results showed that the incidence of sICH was 40.77 patients per 100,000 of population per year in Taiwan. The incidence increased with age and was greater in men than women. The mean hospital length of stay (LOS) of first-event sICH patients was 31.8 days; the mean LOS in the intensive care unit was 7.9 days; and the mean survival time was 60.4 months. The mortality rate within 30 days and within 1 year was 19.8 and 29.6%, respectively. The mean hospital expenditure of first-event sICH patients was USD $7572, and was highly correlated with LOS. In conclusion, the incidence of sICH in Taiwan is higher than that in white and black populations of northern America and some European countries and lower than that in the Asian populations of Japan and China. The features of male and female sICH patients differ. Our findings suggest that the hospital expenditure and mortality rate of sICH patients in Taiwan are comparable with those of other countries.

  9. Exposure-adjusted incidence rates and severity of competition injuries in Australian amateur taekwondo athletes: a 2-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lystad, Reidar P; Graham, Petra L; Poulos, Roslyn G

    2013-05-01

    The main purposes of this study were to determine the injury incidence and severity in Australian amateur taekwondo athletes, and to investigate potential risk factors for injury in competition taekwondo. Data were collected at New South Wales State Championships in 2010 and 2011. Injuries were diagnosed by onsite sports medicine personnel and the actual number of days lost from full participation was used to determine injury severity. Injury incidence rates were calculated per 1000 athlete-exposures (injury incidence rate (IIRAE)) and per 1000 min of exposure (IIRME) and presented with 95% CI. The overall IIRAE and IIRME were 59.93 (95% CI 51.16 to 69.77) and 16.32 (95% CI 13.93 to 19.00), respectively. Children under 10 years had significantly lower IIRAE compared with older age groups and black belts had significantly higher IIRAE compared with yellow belts, however, after accounting for the exposure time it was revealed that 10-year-olds to 14-year-olds and red belts incurred higher IIRME. This study highlights the importance of including IIRs that account for exposure-time. In contrast with previous estimates, the current data indicated that one-third of injuries were moderate to severe. Relative to other body regions the upper limb had a higher proportion of moderate-to-severe injuries, and compared with the lower limb there was a disproportionate number of upper limb injuries resulting in fractures. The findings suggest that the impact of injury on taekwondo athletes is significant, and should serve as an impetus to stakeholders to develop and implement injury prevention activities within the sport.

  10. Detection of ship shaft-rate electric field signal based on EMD and fourth-order mixed cumulant%基于EMD和四阶混合累积量的船舶轴频电场检测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程锐; 姜润翔; 龚沈光

    2015-01-01

    为实现低信噪比情况下微弱的船舶轴频电场信号的有效检测 ,提出了一种结合经验模态分解(empiri-cal mode decomposition ,EMD)和四阶混合累积量对角切片滑动功率谱的方法.首先 ,利用EMD将信号自适应地进行子带分解 ,对得到的本征模态函数(intrinsic mode functions ,IM F)采用相关系数准则进行筛选 ;然后 ,利用高阶累积量可抑制高斯色噪声的特性 ,计算各有效IM F分量的四阶混合累积量对角切片的功率谱 ,并进行了多子带中的滑动检测.实测数据处理结果表明 :该方法具有较好的应用价值.%In order to implement effective detection of weak ship shaft-rate electric field signal under low signal to noise ratio (SNR) ,a method combining empirical mode decomposition (EMD) with sli-ding power spectrum of fourth-order mixed cumulant diagonal slice is proposed .Firstly ,EMD method is employed to adaptively decompose the signal into a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) ,from which the valid ones are selected according to correlation coefficient criterion .Then ,by exploiting the property of higher order cumulant which can suppress Gaussian colored noise ,power spectrum of fourth-order mixed cumulant diagonal slice of selected IM Fs is calculated ,w hich is then used for slid-ing detection in multiple sub-bands .The result of processing practical data illustrates that this method is of great value in application .

  11. Global stability analysis of two-strain epidemic model with bilinear and non-monotone incidence rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Isa Abdullahi; Hincal, Evren

    2017-05-01

    In this article we studied an epidemic model consisting of two strains with different types of incidence rates; bilinear and non-monotone. The model consists of four equilibrium points: disease-free equilibrium, endemic with respect to strain 1, endemic with respect to strain 2, and endemic with respect to both strains. The global stability analysis of the equilibrium points was carried out through the use of Lyapunov functions. Two basic reproduction ratios R 1 0 and R 2 0 are found, and we have shown that if both are less than one, the disease dies out, and if both are greater than one epidemic occurs. Furthermore, epidemics occur with respect to any strain with a basic reproduction ratio greater than one and disease dies out with respect to any strain with a basic reproduction ratio less than one. It was also shown that any strain with highest basic reproduction ratio will automatically outperform the other strain, thereby eliminating it. Numerical simulations were carried out to support the analytic result and to show the effect of the parameter k in the non-monotone incidence rate, which describes the psychological effect of general public towards infection.

  12. Modeling the influence of incident angle and deposition rate on a nanostructure grown by oblique angle deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kun-Dar; Dong, Yu-Wei

    2017-02-01

    In this study, numerical approaches were applied to theoretically investigate the influence of process parameters, such as the incident angle and the deposition rate, on the nanostructural formation of thin films by oblique angle deposition (OAD). A continuum model was first developed, and the atomic diffusion, shadowing effect and steering effect were incorporated in the formation mechanisms of the surface morphology and nanostructure of the deposited films. A characteristic morphology of columnar nanorods corresponding to an OAD was well reproduced through this kinetic model. With the increase of the incident angle, the shadowing effect played a significant role in the columnar structures and the ratio of the surface area to volume was raised, implying a high level of voids in the nanostructures. When the deposition rate decreased, the porosity was notably suppressed due to the atomic diffusion in the growth process. These simulation results coincide well with many experimental observations. With the manipulation of the numerical simulations, the underlying mechanisms of the morphological formation during OAD were revealed, which also provided plentiful information to stimulate the process designs for manufacturing advanced materials.

  13. High rates of incident and prevalent anal human papillomavirus infection among young men who have sex with men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Sara Nelson; Feng, Qinghua; Popov, Viorica; Koutsky, Laura A; Golden, Matthew R

    2014-02-01

    There are few published estimates of anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infection rates among young men who have sex with men (YMSM). We estimated incidence and prevalence of type-specific anal HPV infection using clinician-collected anal swabs for HPV DNA testing obtained during a 1-year prospective study of 94 YMSM (mean age, 21 years) in Seattle. Seventy percent of YMSM had any HPV infection detected during the study, and HPV-16 and/or -18 were detected in 37%. The incidence rate for any new HPV infection was 38.5 per 1000 person-months and 15.3 per 1000 person-months for HPV-16/18; 19% had persistent HPV-16/18 infection. No participant tested positive for all 4 HPV types in the quadrivalent vaccine. The number of lifetime male receptive anal sex partners was significantly associated with HPV infection. The prevalence of HPV-16/18 was 6% among YMSM with a history of 1 receptive anal sex partner and 31% among YMSM with ≥ 2 partners. Although the high prevalence of HPV among YMSM highlights the desirability of vaccinating all boys as a strategy to avert the morbidity of HPV infection, most YMSM appear to remain naive to either HPV-16 or -18 well into their sexual lives and would benefit from HPV immunization.

  14. Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

  15. Centenarian Rates and Life Expectancy Related to the Death Rates of Multiple Sclerosis, Asthma, and Rheumatoid Arthritis and the Incidence of Type 1 Diabetes in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lens-Pechakova, Lilia S

    2016-02-01

    The autoimmune diseases are among the 10 leading causes of death for women and the number two cause of chronic illness in America as well as a predisposing factor for cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Patients of some autoimmune diseases have shown a shorter life span and are a model of accelerated immunosenescence. Conversely, centenarians are used as a model of successful aging and have shown several immune parameters that are better preserved and lower levels of autoantibodies. The study reported here focused on clarifying the connection between longevity and some autoimmune and allergic diseases in 29 developed Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, because multidisciplinary analyses of the accelerated or delayed aging data could show a distinct relationship pattern, help to identify common factors, and determine new important factors that contribute to longevity and healthy aging. The relationships between the mortality rates data of multiple sclerosis (MS), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), asthma, the incidence of type 1 diabetes (T1D) from one side and centenarian rates (two sets) as well as life expectancy data from the other side were assessed using regression models and Pearson correlation coefficients. The data obtained correspond to an inverse linear correlation with different degrees of linearity. This is the first observation of a clear tendency of diminishing centenarian rates or life expectancy in countries having higher death rates of asthma, MS, and RA and a higher incidence of T1D in children. The conclusion is that most probably there are common mechanistic pathways and factors affecting the above diseases and at the same time but in the opposite direction the processes of longevity. Further study, comparing genetic data, mechanistic pathways, and other factors connected to autoimmune diseases with those of longevity could clarify the processes involved, so as to promote longevity and limit the expansion of those

  16. Cumulative live-birth rates per total number of embryos needed to reach newborn in consecutive in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles: a new approach to measuring the likelihood of IVF success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrido, Nicolás; Bellver, José; Remohí, José; Simón, Carlos; Pellicer, Antonio

    2011-07-01

    To report the use of cumulative live-birth rates (CLBRs) per ovarian stimulation cycle to measure the success of IVF is proving to be the most accurate method for advising couples who failed to conceive, although the accuracy yielded is relatively low, and cycle outcome is highly dependent on the number of embryos replaced. Our aim with this work is to report the CLBRs of IVF as a function of the number of embryos required to reach a live birth (EmbR), considering age, day of ET, and infertility etiology. Survival curves and Kaplan-Meier methods to analyze CLBR in a retrospective cohort with respect to the number of EmbR. University-affiliated infertility center. Infertile couples undergoing IVF using own oocytes. None. CLBR per embryo transferred. CLBRs increase rapidly between 1 and 5 EmbR, moderately between 5 and 15, and slowly thereafter. Live-birth rates rise more slowly when embryos are transferred on days 2-3 rather than on days 5-6, with comparable long-term results. Women's age is a negative factor from 35 to 37 years old, with a dramatic decrease in live-birth rates beyond age 40 years. In addition, there are significant worse results in endometriosis patients. The relationship between CLBR and number of EmbR provides realistic and precise information regarding IVF success and can be used to guide couples and practitioners. Copyright © 2011 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Learning from an early start but late end epidemics via an incidence rate restricted bivariate distribution and data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramalingam Shanmugam

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: An ideal expectation of public health administrators or field medical workers is to have a late start and quick ending of any epidemic. Instead, when an epidemic starts early but ends late, it is where much can be learned from the incidences. A case in point for discussion in this article is the pattern of 2009 H1N1 epidemic. Methods: With a parameter to portray an existing health environment as a deterrent for an epidemic like H1N1 to outbreak in any location at a week, a bivariate distribution is created and is used to analyze the data for a learning so that it helps to prevent a too long prevailing future epidemic. This new distribution is named Incidence Rate Restricted Bivariate Distribution (IRRBGD. Statistical properties of IRRBGD are derived and illustrated using 2009 H1N1 incidences in all five continental regions (Africa, Asia, Europe, Americas, and Oceanic across on earth. Results: The Asian continent, compared to other four continental regions, had most vulnerability for H1N1 incidences. The odds for no H1N1 to occur is lowest only in Oceanic among the four continental regions, namely Africa, Europe, Americas, and Oceanic. Since the beginning of the year 2009 with 52 weeks, the week number, Y in which the H1N1 appeared first and the number, X of weeks the H1N1 continued on in a region are consistently highly correlated in all five continental regions. Conclusions: From the data analyses of 2009 H1N1 incidences, no continental region is risk free with respect another round of H1N1 epidemic in future. The medical community and public healthcare administrators ought to identify the common and region specific unique deterrents of the epidemic like H1N1. The impact of such deterrents to H1N1 is captured in our model and analysis. By increasing the deterrent level, the outbreak of an epidemic like H1N1 could be delayed, according to our model and data information. [Int J Res Med Sci 2015; 3(9.000: 2181-2189

  18. Decreasing incidence of severe diabetic microangiopathy in type 1 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovind, Peter; Tarnow, Lise; Rossing, Kasper

    2003-01-01

    ); group B, 1970-1974 (n = 130); group C, 1975-1979 (n = 113); and group D, 1979-1984 (n = 244). Group A, B, and C are prevalence cohorts identified in 1984; group D is an inception cohort. RESULTS: In patients followed for >/=20 years, the cumulative incidence (95% CI) of diabetic nephropathy after 20...... incidence of diabetic microangiopathy in type 1 diabetes over the past 35 years. Improved glycemic control, lower blood pressure (in part due to early aggressive antihypertensive treatment), and reduced prevalence of smoking rates were associated with the improved prognosis.......OBJECTIVE: Conflicting evidence of a decline in incidence of microvascular complications in type 1 diabetes during the last decades has been reported. To assess recent trends in the cumulative incidence of diabetic microangiopathy in type 1 diabetes, we analyzed data from long-term prospective...

  19. Trends in stage-specific incidence rates for urothelial carcinoma of the bladder in the United States: 1988 to 2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Matthew E; Smith, Angela B; Meyer, Anne-Marie; Kuo, Tzy-Mey; Tyree, Seth; Kim, William Y; Milowsky, Matthew I; Pruthi, Raj S; Millikan, Robert C

    2014-01-01

    Bladder cancer is notable for a striking heterogeneity of disease-specific risks. Among the approximately 75% of incident cases found to be superficial to the muscularis propria at the time of presentation (non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer), the risk of progression to the lethal phenotype of muscle-invasive disease is strongly associated with stage and grade of disease. Given the suggestion of an increasing percentage of low-risk cases in hospital-based registry data in recent years, the authors hypothesized that population-based data may reveal changes in the stage distribution of early-stage cases. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data were used to examine trends for the stage-specific incidence of bladder cancer between 1988 and 2006, adjusted for age, race, and sex, using Joinpoint and nonparametric tests. The adjusted incidence rate of papillary noninvasive (Ta) predominantly low grade (77%) disease was found to increase from 5.52 to 9.09 per 100,000 population (P < .0001), with an average annual percentage change of +3.3. Over the same period, concomitant, albeit smaller, decreases were observed for flat in situ (Tis) and lamina propria-invasive (T1) disease (2.57 to 1.19 and 6.65 to 4.61 per 100,000 population [both P < .0001]; average annual percent change of -5.0 and -1.6, respectively). The trend was most dramatic among patients in the oldest age strata, suggesting a previously unappreciated cohort phenomenon. The findings of the current study should motivate further epidemiological investigations of differential associations of genetic and environmental factors with different bladder cancer phenotypes as well as further scrutiny of clinical practice guideline recommendations for the growing subgroup of predominantly older patients with lower-risk disease. © 2013 American Cancer Society.

  20. Evaluation of the false recent classification rates of multiassay algorithms in estimating HIV type 1 subtype C incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyo, Sikhulile; LeCuyer, Tessa; Wang, Rui; Gaseitsiwe, Simani; Weng, Jia; Musonda, Rosemary; Bussmann, Hermann; Mine, Madisa; Engelbrecht, Susan; Makhema, Joseph; Marlink, Richard; Baum, Marianna K; Novitsky, Vladimir; Essex, M

    2014-01-01

    Laboratory cross-sectional assays are useful for the estimation of HIV incidence, but are known to misclassify individuals with long-standing infection as recently infected. The false recent rate (FRR) varies widely across geographic areas; therefore, accurate estimates of HIV incidence require a locally defined FRR. We determined FRR for Botswana, where HIV-1 subtype C infection is predominant, using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay (BED), a Bio-Rad Avidity Index (BAI) assay (a modification of the Bio-Rad HIV1/2+O EIA), and two multiassay algorithms (MAA) that included clinical data. To estimate FRR, stored blood samples from 512 antiretroviral (ARV)-naive HIV-1 subtype C-infected individuals from a prospective cohort in Botswana were tested at 18-24 months postenrollment. The following FRR mean (95% CI) values were obtained: BED 6.05% (4.15-8.48), BAI 5.57% (3.70-8.0), BED-BAI 2.25% (1.13-4.0), and a combination of BED-BAI with CD4 (>200) and viral load (>400) threshold 1.43% (0.58-2.93). The interassay agreement between BED and BAI was 92.8% (95% CI, 90.1-94.5) for recent/long-term classification. Misclassification was associated with viral suppression for BED [adjusted OR (aOR) 10.31; p=0.008], BAI [aOR 9.72; p=0.019], and MAA1 [aOR 16.6; p=0.006]. Employing MAA can reduce FRR to <2%. A local FRR can improve cross-sectional HIV incidence estimates.

  1. Genetic selection for health traits using producer-recorded data. I. Incidence rates, heritability estimates, and sire breeding values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwald, N R; Weigel, K A; Chang, Y M; Welper, R D; Clay, J S

    2004-12-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the feasibility of genetic selection for health traits in dairy cattle using data recorded in on-farm herd management software programs. Data regarding displaced abomasum (DA), ketosis (KET), mastitis (MAST), lameness (LAME), cystic ovaries (CYST), and metritis (MET) were collected between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2003 in herds using Dairy Comp 305, DHI-Plus, or PCDART herd management software programs. All herds in this study were either participants in the Alta Genetics (Watertown, WI) Advantage progeny testing program or customers of the Dairy Records Management Systems (Raleigh, NC) processing center. Minimum lactation incidence rates were applied to ensure adequate reporting of these disorders within individual herds. After editing, DA, KET, MAST, LAME, CYST, and MET data from 75,252 (313), 52,898 (250), 105,029 (429), 50,611 (212), 65,080 (340), and 97,318 (418) cows (herds) remained for analysis. Average lactation incidence rates were 0.03, 0.10, 0.20, 0.10, 0.08, and 0.21 for DA, KET, MAST, LAME, CYST, and MET (including retained placenta), respectively. Data for each disorder were analyzed separately using a threshold sire model that included a fixed parity effect and random sire and herd-year-season of calving effects; both first lactation and all lactation analyses were carried out. Heritability estimates from first lactation (all lactation) analyses were 0.18 (0.15) for DA, 0.11 (0.06) for KET, 0.10 (0.09) for MAST, 0.07 (0.06) for LAME, 0.08 (0.05) for CYST, and 0.08 (0.07) for MET. Corresponding heritability estimates for the pooled incidence rate of all diseases between calving and 50 d postpartum were 0.12 and 0.10 for the first and all lactation analyses, respectively. Mean differences in PTA for probability of disease between the 10 best and 10 worst sires were 0.034 for DA, 0.069 for KET, 0.130 for MAST, 0.054 for LAME, 0.039 for CYST, and 0.120 for MET. Based on the results of this study, it

  2. UBIQUITOUS POLLUTANTS FROM CUMULATIVE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The occurrence of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPS) as environmental pollutants is a multifaceted issue whose scope continues to become better delineated since the escalation of concerted attention beginning in the 1980s. PPCPs typically occur as trace environmental pollutants (primarily in surface but also in ground waters) as a result of their widespread, continuous, combined usage in a broad range of human and veterinary therapeutic activities and practices. With respect to the risk-assessment paradigm, the growing body of published work has focused primarily on the origin and occurrence of these substances. Comparatively less is known about human and ecological exposure, and even less about the known or even potential hazards associated with exposure to these anthropogenic substances, many of which are highly bioactive. The continually growing, worldwide importance of freshwater resources underscores the need for ensuring that any aggregate or cumulative impacts on water supplies and resultant potential for human or ecological exposure be minimized. This has prompted the more recent investigations on waste treatment processes for one of the major sources of environmental disposition, namely sewage. Despite the paucity of health effects data for long-term, simultaneous exposure to multiple xenobiotics (particularly PPCPS) at low doses (a major toxicological issue that can be described by the

  3. Potential impact on HIV incidence of higher HIV testing rates and earlier antiretroviral therapy initiation in MSM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phillips, Andrew N; Cambiano, Valentina; Miners, Alec

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Increased rates of testing, with early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, represent a key potential HIV-prevention approach. Currently, in MSM in the United Kingdom, it is estimated that 36% are diagnosed by 1 year from infection, and the ART initiation threshold is at CD4 cell...... on HIV in MSM in the United Kingdom. Outcomes were projected according to future alternative HIV testing and ART initiation scenarios to 2030, considering also potential changes in levels of condomless sex. RESULTS: For ART use to result in an incidence of close to 1/1000 person-years requires...... the proportion of all HIV-positive MSM with viral suppression to increase from below 60% currently to 90%, assuming no rise in levels of condomless sex. Substantial increases in HIV testing, such that over 90% of men are diagnosed within a year of infection, would increase the proportion of HIV-positive men...

  4. Aflatoxin contamination of red chili pepper from Bolivia and Peru, countries with high gallbladder cancer incidence rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asai, Takao; Tsuchiya, Yasuo; Okano, Kiyoshi; Piscoya, Alejandro; Nishi, Carlos Yoshito; Ikoma, Toshikazu; Oyama, Tomizo; Ikegami, Kikuo; Yamamoto, Masaharu

    2012-01-01

    Chilean red chili peppers contaminated with aflatoxins were reported in a previous study. If the development of gallbladder cancer (GBC) in Chile is associated with a high level of consumption of aflatoxin-contaminated red chili peppers, such peppers from other countries having a high GBC incidence rate may also be contaminated with aflatoxins. We aimed to determine whether this might be the case for red chili peppers from Bolivia and Peru. A total of 7 samples (3 from Bolivia, 4 from Peru) and 3 controls (2 from China, 1 from Japan) were evaluated. Aflatoxins were extracted with acetonitrile:water (9:1, v/v) and eluted through an immuno-affinity column. The concentrations of aflatoxins B1, B2, G1, and G2 were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and then the detected aflatoxins were identified using HPLC-mass spectrometry. In some but not all of the samples from Bolivia and Peru, aflatoxin B1 or aflatoxins B1 and B2 were detected. In particular, aflatoxin B1 or total aflatoxin concentrations in a Bolivian samples were above the maximum levels for aflatoxins in spices proposed by the European Commission. Red chili peppers from Bolivia and Peru consumed by populations having high GBC incidence rates would appear to be contaminated with aflatoxins. These data suggest the possibility that a high level of consumption of aflatoxin-contaminated red chili peppers is related to the development of GBC, and the association between the two should be confirmed by a case-control study.

  5. Incidence rates and management of urinary tract infections among children in Dutch general practice: results from a nation-wide registration study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Wing-Yee; de Kwaadsteniet, Marjolein CE; Harmsen, Mirjam; van Suijlekom-Smit, Lisette WA; Schellevis, François G; van der Wouden, Johannes C

    2006-01-01

    Background We aimed to investigate incidence rates of urinary tract infections in Dutch general practice and their association with gender, season and urbanisation level, and to analyse prescription and referral in case of urinary tract infections. Method During one calendar year, 195 general practitioners in 104 practices in the Netherlands registered all their patient contacts. This study was performed by the Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL) in 2001. Of 82,053 children aged 0 to 18 years, the following variables were collected: number of episodes per patient, number of contacts per episode, month of the year in which the diagnosis of urinary tract infection was made, age, gender, urbanisation level, drug prescription and referral. Results The overall incidence rate was 19 episodes per 1000 person years. The incidence rate in girls was 8 times as high as in boys. The incidence rate in smaller cities and rural areas was 2 times as high as in the three largest cities. Throughout the year, incidence rates varied with a decrease in summertime for children at the age of 0 to 12 years. Of the prescriptions, 66% were in accordance with current guidelines, but only 18% of the children who had an indication were actually referred. Conclusion This study shows that incidence rates of urinary tract infections are not only related to gender and season, but also to urbanisation. General practitioners in the Netherlands frequently do not follow the clinical guidelines for urinary tract infections, especially with respect to referral. PMID:16584577

  6. Incidence rates and management of urinary tract infections among children in Dutch general practice: results from a nation-wide registration study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schellevis François G

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We aimed to investigate incidence rates of urinary tract infections in Dutch general practice and their association with gender, season and urbanisation level, and to analyse prescription and referral in case of urinary tract infections. Method During one calendar year, 195 general practitioners in 104 practices in the Netherlands registered all their patient contacts. This study was performed by the Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL in 2001. Of 82,053 children aged 0 to 18 years, the following variables were collected: number of episodes per patient, number of contacts per episode, month of the year in which the diagnosis of urinary tract infection was made, age, gender, urbanisation level, drug prescription and referral. Results The overall incidence rate was 19 episodes per 1000 person years. The incidence rate in girls was 8 times as high as in boys. The incidence rate in smaller cities and rural areas was 2 times as high as in the three largest cities. Throughout the year, incidence rates varied with a decrease in summertime for children at the age of 0 to 12 years. Of the prescriptions, 66% were in accordance with current guidelines, but only 18% of the children who had an indication were actually referred. Conclusion This study shows that incidence rates of urinary tract infections are not only related to gender and season, but also to urbanisation. General practitioners in the Netherlands frequently do not follow the clinical guidelines for urinary tract infections, especially with respect to referral.

  7. First-Ever Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack Incidence and 30-Day Case-Fatality Rates in a Population-Based Study in Argentina

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bahit, M Cecilia; Coppola, Mariano L; Riccio, Patricia M

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Epidemiological data about stroke are scarce in low- and middle-income Latin-American countries. We investigated annual incidence of first-ever stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) and 30-day case-fatality rates in a population-based setting in Tandil, Argentina....... METHODS: We prospectively identified all first-ever stroke and TIA cases from overlapping sources between January 5, 2013, and April 30, 2015, in Tandil, Argentina. We calculated crude and standardized incidence rates. We estimated 30-day case-fatality rates. RESULTS: We identified 334 first-ever strokes.......1% (95% CI, 14.2-36.6) for intracerebral hemorrhage, and 1.9% (95% CI, 0.4-5.8) for TIA. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first prospective population-based stroke and TIA incidence and case-fatality estimate in Argentina. First-ever stroke incidence was lower than that reported in previous Latin...

  8. Application of a novel grey self-memory coupling model to forecast the incidence rates of two notifiable diseases in China: dysentery and gonorrhea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojun Guo

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: In this study, a novel grey self-memory coupling model was developed to forecast the incidence rates of two notifiable infectious diseases (dysentery and gonorrhea; the effectiveness and applicability of this model was assessed based on its ability to predict the epidemiological trend of infectious diseases in China. METHODS: The linear model, the conventional GM(1,1 model and the GM(1,1 model with self-memory principle (SMGM(1,1 model were used to predict the incidence rates of the two notifiable infectious diseases based on statistical incidence data. Both simulation accuracy and prediction accuracy were assessed to compare the predictive performances of the three models. The best-fit model was applied to predict future incidence rates. RESULTS: Simulation results show that the SMGM(1,1 model can take full advantage of the systematic multi-time historical data and possesses superior predictive performance compared with the linear model and the conventional GM(1,1 model. By applying the novel SMGM(1,1 model, we obtained the possible incidence rates of the two representative notifiable infectious diseases in China. CONCLUSION: The disadvantages of the conventional grey prediction model, such as sensitivity to initial value, can be overcome by the self-memory principle. The novel grey self-memory coupling model can predict the incidence rates of infectious diseases more accurately than the conventional model, and may provide useful references for making decisions involving infectious disease prevention and control.

  9. Time trends in lifetime incidence rates of first-time diagnosed anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa across 16 years in a Danish nationwide psychiatric registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Jensen, Christina Mohr

    2015-11-01

    To study recent time trends in the incidence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) based on nationwide psychiatric register data. The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry was used to identify the incidence of diagnosed cases with AN and BN at the ages of 4-65 years from 1995 to 2010. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated and were adjusted for time trends in the total number of people diagnosed in psychiatry. Time trends were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analysis. A total of N = 5,902 persons had a first-time incidence of AN, and a total of N = 5,113 had first-time incidence of BN. Incidence rates increased for AN from 6.4 to 12.6 per 100,000 person-years, and for BN from 6.3 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years. In 2010, the male-to-female ratio was 1:8 for AN, and 1:20 for BN. There was an earlier onset for AN than for BN, and age at incidence decreased during the observation period for AN but not for BN. A sizeable part of the increasing incidence rates for AN and in particular, the younger AN age groups, could be attributed to an increase in the total number of N = 249,607 persons with first-time diagnoses in psychiatry. Incidence rates had increased slightly for AN, but were stable for BN across 16 years in this nationwide study and to a large extent were reflective of a general increase in diagnosed mental disorders. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Pediatric inflammatory bowel disease: Increasing incidence, decreasing surgery rate, and compromised nutritional status: A prospective population-based cohort study 2007-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Christian; Paerregaard, Anders; Munkholm, Pia

    2011-01-01

    Background: The aim was to evaluate the incidence, treatment, surgery rate, and anthropometry at diagnosis of children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Methods: Patients diagnosed between January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009 in Eastern Denmark, Funen, and Aarhus were included from a backgro...... pediatric population. Conclusions: Over the past 12 years we found an increase in the incidence of IBD in children, an increasing use of IM, and decreasing 1-year surgery rates. CD patients had poor nutritional status.......Background: The aim was to evaluate the incidence, treatment, surgery rate, and anthropometry at diagnosis of children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Methods: Patients diagnosed between January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009 in Eastern Denmark, Funen, and Aarhus were included from...... a background population of 668,056 children surgery rate, a subcohort from Eastern Denmark was extracted for comparison with a previously published population-based cohort from the same geographical area (1998–2006). Results: In all, 130 children...

  11. Expansive Soil Crack Depth under Cumulative Damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bei-xiao Shi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The crack developing depth is a key problem to slope stability of the expansive soil and its project governance and the crack appears under the roles of dry-wet cycle and gradually develops. It is believed from the analysis that, because of its own cohesion, the expansive soil will have a certain amount of deformation under pulling stress but without cracks. The soil body will crack only when the deformation exceeds the ultimate tensile strain that causes cracks. And it is also believed that, due to the combined effect of various environmental factors, particularly changes of the internal water content, the inherent basic physical properties of expansive soil are weakened, and irreversible cumulative damages are eventually formed, resulting in the development of expansive soil cracks in depth. Starting from the perspective of volumetric strain that is caused by water loss, considering the influences of water loss rate and dry-wet cycle on crack developing depth, the crack developing depth calculation model which considers the water loss rate and the cumulative damages is established. Both the proposal of water loss rate and the application of cumulative damage theory to the expansive soil crack development problems try to avoid difficulties in matrix suction measurement, which will surely play a good role in promoting and improving the research of unsaturated expansive soil.

  12. Time-series analysis of the impact of bed occupancy rates on the incidence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection in overcrowded general wards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borg, Michael A; Suda, David; Scicluna, Elizabeth

    2008-06-01

    We investigated the impact of bed occupancy, particularly overcrowding, on the incidence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection in general ward settings. We performed a time-series and mixed-model analysis of variance of monthly incidence of MRSA infection and corresponding bed occupancy rates, over 65 months, in the medicine and surgical wards within St. Luke's Hospital, a 900-bed tertiary care facility in Malta. In the medicine wards, significant periodic fluctuations in bed demand were evident during the study period, with peaks of occupancy greater than 120% during the winter months. Cross-correlation analysis between the rate of bed occupancy and the rate of MRSA infection displayed an oscillatory configuration, with a periodicity of 12, similar to the periodicity evident in the autocorrelation bed-occupancy pattern. Further statistical analysis by means of analysis of variance confirmed that the months with excessive overcrowding tended to coincide with a significant increase in the rate of MRSA infection, occurring after a lag of approximately 2 months. Identical analysis of equivalent data from the surgical wards also revealed significant fluctuation in the rate of bed occupancy; however, occupancy never exceeded 100%. No cross-correlational relationship with MRSA infection incidence was present. The study data suggest that, in our setting, simple fluctuations in the rate of bed occupancy did not have a direct impact on the incidence of MRSA infection as long as the rate of bed occupancy was within designated levels. Rather, it was episodes of significant overcrowding, with occupancy levels in excess of designated numbers, that triggered increases in infection incidence rates.

  13. Pathogen-specific incidence rate of clinical mastitis in Flemish dairy herds, severity, and association with herd hygiene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeke, Joren; Piepers, Sofie; Supré, Karlien; De Vliegher, Sarne

    2014-11-01

    A one-year survey on clinical mastitis was conducted on 50 randomly selected commercial Flemish dairy herds to estimate the pathogen-specific incidence rate of clinical mastitis (IRCM). The severity of the cases and the potential associations with herd hygiene were studied. Participating producers sampled 845 cases and 692 dairy cows. The mean and median IRCM was estimated at 7.4 and 5.3 quarter cases per 10,000 cow-days at risk, respectively. A large between-herd variation was observed (range of 0-21.3). In general, the IRCM was lower in heifers compared with multiparous cows (2.9 vs. 11.0 quarter cases per 10,000 cow-days at risk). However, the overall IRCM in the first week after calving was higher in heifers compared with cows (43.4 vs. 31.6 quarter cases per 10,000 cow-days at risk). Streptococcus uberis (18.2% of the cases) and Escherichia coli (15.5%) were the most frequently isolated pathogens and no growth was observed in 19.9% of the cases. The majority of the cases (63.1%) were mild (only clots in milk). Moderate (hard quarter without general signs) and severe symptoms (systemic illness) were observed in 29.9 and 7.0% of the cases, respectively. Isolation of E. coli (vs. any other culture result) was more likely in moderate and severe cases compared with mild cases. Overall IRCM and E. coli IRCM were higher in dirty compared with clean herds based on udder hygiene scores (9.0 and 1.7 vs. 6.0 and 0.6 quarter cases per 10,000 cow-days at risk, respectively). This study broadens the knowledge on clinical mastitis in Flemish dairy herds and underlines the high risk of CM in early-lactation heifers, the role of the so-called environmental pathogens, and herd hygiene.

  14. AGE-DEPENDENT ASPECTS OF ACUTE CORONARY HEART DISEASE INCIDENCE RATE AND MORTALITY IN MEN AND WOMEN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Boytsov

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To study gender and age characteristics of incidence rate, mortality and lethality in acute coronary heart disease (ACHD.Material and Methods. Analysis of the ACHD (ICD-10 codes: I21.0-I22.9, I20.0, I24 morbidity, mortality and lethality, depending on sex and age was performed in the population (n=285 736; 46% men of several city administrative districts of Voronezh, Ryazan and Khanty-Mansiysk. Morbidity, mortality and lethality were calculated on the basis of medical documentation as well as cases identified by the study protocol.Results. The ACHD morbidity and mortality in men were 1.99 and 1.79 times higher (p<0,001, respectively, than these in women. The studied parameters increase with age, reaching a maximum in 50-59 y.o., have a plateau in 60-79 y.o. and then they decrease. Morbidity and mortality in women increase with age, but reach a maximum in 70-79 y.o., being comparable with the male level, and then exceed it in ≥80 y.o. Age curve of lethality in men has J-alike shape with minimum in patients of 50-79 y.o. Women have a line age curve with minimum in patients of <50 y.o.Conclusion. The population of ACHD patients should be considered according to both the sex and age: <50, 50-79 and ≥80 y.o. Every of these population group has special epidemiological characteristics.

  15. Incidence rate of prostate cancer in men treated for erectile dysfunction with phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors: retrospective analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Anthony H Chavez; K Scott Coffield; M Hasan Rajab; Chanhee Jo

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence rate of prostate cancer among men with erectile dysfunction (ED) treated with phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors (PDE-5i) over a 7-year period vs.men with ED of the same age and with similar risk factors who were not treated with PDE-5i.In a retrospective review of electronic medical records and billing databases between the years 2000 and 2006,men with ED between the ages of 50 and 69 years and no history of prostate cancer prior to 2000 were identified.These individuals were divided into two groups:2362 men who had treatment with PDE-5i,and 2612 men who did not have treatment.Demographic data in each group were compared.During the study period,97 (4.1%) men with ED treated with PDE-5i were diagnosed with prostate cancer compared with 258 (9.9%) men with ED in the non-treated group (P<00001).A higher percentage of African Americans were treated with PDE-5i vs.those who were not (10.5% vs.7.1%; P<0.0001).The PDE-5i group had lower documented diagnosis of elevated prostate-specific antigen (10.0% vs.13.1%; P=0.0008) and higher percentage of benign prostatic hyperplasia (38.4% vs.35.1%; P=0.0149).Men with ED treated with PDE-5i tended to have less chance (adjusted odds ratio:0.4; 95% confidence intervals:0.3-0.5; P<0.0001) of having prostate cancer.Our data suggest that men with ED treated with PDE-5i tended to have less of a chance of being diagnosed with prostate cancer.Further research is warranted.

  16. EARSS: European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System; data from the Netherlands .Incidence and resistance rates for Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goettsch WG; Neeling AJ de; CIE; LIO

    2001-01-01

    In a porspective prevalence and incidence survey in The Netherlands in 1999 antimicrobial susceptibility data on invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus infections were collected sithin the framework of European Antomicrobial Resistance Surveillance System (EARSS). The EARSS proj

  17. Stability in the cumulative incidence, severity and mortality of 101 cases of invasive mucormycosis in high-risk patients from 1995 to 2011: a comparison of eras immediately before and after the availability of voriconazole and echinocandin-amphotericin combination therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abidi, Maheen Z; Sohail, Muhammad R; Cummins, Nathan; Wilhelm, Mark; Wengenack, Nancy; Brumble, Lisa; Shah, Harshal; Jane Hata, Donna; McCullough, Ann; Wendel, Amy; Vikram, Holenarasipur R; Kusne, Shimon; Litzow, Mark; Letendre, Louis; Lahr, Brian D; Poeschla, Eric; Walker, Randall C

    2014-11-01

    As invasive mucormycosis (IM) numbers rise, clinicians suspect prior voriconazole worsens IM incidence and severity, and believe combination anti-fungal therapy improves IM survival. To compare the cumulative incidence (CI), severity and mortality of IM in eras immediately before and after the commercial availability of voriconazole all IM cases from 1995 to 2011 were analysed across four risk-groups (hematologic/oncologic malignancy (H/O), stem cell transplantation (SCT), solid organ transplantation (SOT) and other), and two eras, E1 (1995-2003) and E2, (2004-2011). Of 101 IM cases, (79 proven, 22 probable): 30 were in E1 (3.3/year) and 71 in E2 (8.9/year). Between eras, the proportion with H/O or SCT rose from 47% to 73%, while 'other' dropped from 33% to 11% (P = 0.036). Between eras, the CI of IM did not significantly increase in SCT (P = 0.27) or SOT (P = 0.30), and patterns of anatomic location (P = 0.122) and surgical debridement (P = 0.200) were similar. Significantly more patients received amphotericin-echinocandin combination therapy in E2 (31% vs. 5%, P = 0.01); however, 90-day survival did not improve (54% vs. 59%, P = 0.67). Since 2003, the rise of IM reflects increasing numbers at risk, not prior use of voriconazole. Frequent combination of anti-fungal therapy has not improved survival.

  18. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jotzo, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Le Quéré, Corinne

    2014-10-01

    Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 °C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions.

  19. Delayed heart rate recovery after exercise as a risk factor of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus after adjusting for glycometabolic parameters in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tae Yang; Jee, Jae Hwan; Bae, Ji Cheol; Hong, Won-Jung; Jin, Sang-Man; Kim, Jae Hyeon; Lee, Moon-Kyu

    2016-10-15

    Some studies have reported that delayed heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise is associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal association of delayed HRR following a graded exercise treadmill test (GTX) with the development of T2DM including glucose-associated parameters as an adjusting factor in healthy Korean men. Analyses including fasting plasma glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c as confounding factors and known confounders were performed. HRR was calculated as peak heart rate minus heart rate after a 1-min rest (HRR 1). Cox proportional hazards model was used to quantify the independent association between HRR and incident T2DM. During 9082 person-years of follow-up between 2006 and 2012, there were 180 (10.1%) incident cases of T2DM. After adjustment for age, BMI, systolic BP, diastolic BP, smoking status, peak heart rate, peak oxygen uptake, TG, LDL-C, HDL-C, fasting plasma glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c, the hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence interval (CI)] of incident T2DM comparing the second and third tertiles to the first tertile of HRR 1 were 0.867 (0.609-1.235) and 0.624 (0.426-0.915), respectively (p for trend=0.017). As a continuous variable, in the fully-adjusted model, the HR (95% CI) of incident T2DM associated with each 1 beat increase in HRR 1 was 0.980 (0.960-1.000) (p=0.048). This study demonstrated that delayed HRR after exercise predicts incident T2DM in men, even after adjusting for fasting glucose, HOMA-IR, HOMA-β, and HbA1c. However, only HRR 1 had clinical significance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Trends in incidence rate, health care consumption, and costs for patients admitted with a humeral fracture in The Netherlands between 1986 and 2012

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.C. Mahabier (Kiran); D. den Hartog (Dennis); M.J.M. Panneman (Martien); J.R. van Veldhuizen (Joyce); S. Polinder (Suzanne); M.H.J. Verhofstad (Michiel); E.M.M. van Lieshout (Esther)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractIntroduction: This study aimed to examine long-term population-based trends in the incidence rate of patients with a humeral fracture admitted to a hospital in the Netherlands from 1986 to 2012 and to give a detailed overview of the health care consumption and productivity loss with asso

  1. Incidence rates and management of urinary tract infections among children in Dutch general practice: results from a nation-wide registration study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwok, W.Y.; Kwaadsteniet, M.C. de; Harmsen, M.; Suijlekom-Smit, L.W. van; Schellevis, F.G.; Wouden, J.C. van der

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate incidence rates of urinary tract infections in Dutch general practice and their association with gender, season and urbanisation level, and to analyse prescription and referral in case of urinary tract infections. METHOD: During one calendar year, 195 general prac

  2. Incidence rates and management of urinary tract infections among children in Dutch general practice: results from a nation-wide registration study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwok, W.Y.; Kwaadsteniet, M.C.E. de; Harmsen, M.; Suijlekom-Smit, L.W.A. van; Schellevis, F.G.; Wouden, J.C. van der

    2006-01-01

    Background: We aimed to investigate incidence rates of urinary tract infections in Dutch general practice and their association with gender, season and urbanisation level, and to analyse prescription and referral in case of urinary tract infections. Method: During one calendar year, 195 general prac

  3. Incidence rates and management of urinary tract infections among children in Dutch general practice: results from a nation-wide registration study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.Y. Kwok (Wing-Yee); M.C. Kwaadsteniet (Marjolein); M. Harmsen (Mirjam); L.W.A. van Suijlekom-Smit (Lisette); F.G. Schellevis (François); J.C. van der Wouden (Hans)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractBACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate incidence rates of urinary tract infections in Dutch general practice and their association with gender, season and urbanisation level, and to analyse prescription and referral in case of urinary tract infections. METHOD: During one calendar year, 195

  4. Time Trends over 16 Years in Incidence-Rates of Autism Spectrum Disorders across the Lifespan Based on Nationwide Danish Register Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Christina Mohr; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Lauritsen, Marlene Briciet

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated time trends and associated factors of incidence rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders (ASD) across the lifespan from 1995 to 2010, using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry. First time diagnosis of childhood autism, atypical autism, Asperger's syndrome, or pervasive developmental…

  5. Prevalence, incidence rates and persistence of contact allergy and allergic contact dermatitis in The Odense Adolescence Cohort Study: a 15-year follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortz, C. G.; Bindslev-Jensen, C.; Andersen, Klaus Ejner

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A cohort of 1501 unselected 8th grade schoolchildren was established 15 years ago with the aim to follow the course of contact allergy and allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) from school age into adult life. To date no studies have evaluated incidence rates and persistence of contact...

  6. Sex Differences in the Incidence of Skin and Skin-Related Diseases in Olmsted County, Minnesota, United States, and a Comparison With Other Rates Published Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Louise K.; Davis, Mark D. P.

    2016-01-01

    Many skin and skin-related diseases affect the sexes unequally, with attendant implications for public health and resource allocation. To better evaluate the incidence of skin and skin-related diseases affecting males versus females, we reviewed published population-based epidemiology studies of skin disorders performed utilizing Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) data. Females had a higher incidence of the following diseases: connective tissue diseases (scleroderma, morphea, dermatomyositis, primary Sjögren syndrome, systemic lupus erythematosus [not in all studies]), pityriasis rosea, herpes progenitalis, condyloma acuminatum, hidradenitis suppurativa, herpes zoster (except in children), erythromelalgia, venous stasis syndrome, and venous ulcers. Males had a higher incidence of psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis, basal cell carcinoma (exception, females aged ≤40 years), squamous cell carcinoma, and lentigo maligna. Incidence rates were equal in males and females for cutaneous malignant melanoma (exception, higher in females aged 18–39 years), lower-extremity cellulitis, cutaneous nontuberculous mycobacterial infection, Behçet disease, delusional infestation, alopecia areata, and bullous pemphigoid. Many of the population-based sex-specific incidence rates of skin and skin-related diseases derived from the Rochester Epidemiology Project are strikingly different from those estimated elsewhere. In general, females are more commonly affected by skin and skin-related diseases. The reasons for this imbalance remain to be determined and are likely multifactorial. PMID:27009931

  7. Are sociodemographic characteristics associated with spatial variation in the incidence of OHCA and bystander CPR rates? A population-based observational study in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straney, Lahn D; Bray, Janet E; Beck, Ben; Bernard, Stephen; Lijovic, Marijana; Smith, Karen

    2016-11-07

    Rates of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) have been shown to vary considerably in Victoria. We examined the extent to which this variation could be explained by the sociodemographic and population health characteristics of the region. Using the Victorian Ambulance Cardiac Arrest Registry, we extracted OHCA cases occurring between 2011 and 2013. We restricted the calculation of bystander CPR rates to those arrests that were witnessed by a bystander. To estimate the level of variation between Victorian local government areas (LGAs), we used a two-stage modelling approach using random-effects modelling. Between 2011 and 2013, there were 15 830 adult OHCA in Victoria. Incidence rates varied across the state between 41.9 to 104.0 cases/100 000 population. The proportion of the population over 65, socioeconomic status, smoking prevalence and education level were significant predictors of incidence in the multivariable model, explaining 93.9% of the variation in incidence among LGAs. Estimates of bystander CPR rates for bystander witnessed arrests varied from 62.7% to 73.2%. Only population density was a significant predictor of rates in a multivariable model, explaining 73% of the variation in the odds of receiving bystander CPR among LGAs. Our results show that the regional characteristics which underlie the variation seen in rates of bystander CPR may be region specific and may require study in smaller areas. However, characteristics associated with high incidence and low bystander CPR rates can be identified and will help to target regions and inform local interventions to increase bystander CPR rates. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  8. Impact of depression mood disorder on the adverse drug reaction incidence rate of anticancer drugs in cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, T; Duan, J J; Zhou, G P; Cai, J Y; Huang, Z H; Zeng, Y T; Xu, F

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to explore the impact of depression mood disorder on the incidence of adverse drug reactions of anticancer drugs in cancer patients. The Hamilton Depression Scale 17 was used to evaluate the depression mood disorder level in 73 cancer patients before chemotherapy. Pharmacists monitored adverse drug reactions during the chemotherapy period. The relationship between depression mood disorder level and the incidence of adverse drug reactions was analysed. The frequency and extent of total adverse drug reactions were not related to depression mood disorder level. The frequency and extent of subjectively experienced adverse drug reactions such as anorexia, nausea and fatigue were related to depression mood disorder level. In conclusion, psychological support and intervention should be provided to cancer patients in order to improve patient adherence and cancer chemotherapy effectiveness, and to decrease the incidence of adverse drug reactions.

  9. HIV and Hepatitis B and C incidence rates in US correctional populations and high risk groups: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hook Edward W

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background High Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV prevalence and high risk behaviors have been well documented within United States (US correctional systems. However, uncertainty remains regarding the extent to which placing people in prison or jail increases their risk of HIV infection, and regarding which inmate populations experience an increased incidence of HIV. Describing these dynamics more clearly is essential to understanding how inmates and former detainees may be a source for further spread of HIV to the general US population. Methods The authors conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies describing HIV incidence in US correctional facility residents and, for comparison, in high risk groups for HIV infection, such as non-incarcerated intravenous drug users (IVDU and men who have sex with men (MSM in the US. HIV incidence rates were further compared with Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C Virus rates in these same populations. Results Thirty-six predominantly prospective cohort studies were included. Across all infection outcomes, continuously incarcerated inmates and treatment recruited IVDU showed the lowest incidence, while MSM and street recruited IVDU showed the highest. HIV incidence was highest among inmates released and re-incarcerated. Possible sources of heterogeneity identified among HIV studies were risk population and race. Conclusions Although important literature gaps were found, current evidence suggests that policies and interventions for HIV prevention in correctional populations should prioritize curtailing risk of infection during the post-release period. Future research should evaluate HIV incidence rates in inmate populations, accounting for proportion of high risk sub-groups.

  10. Comparative trends in incident fracture rates for all long-term care and community-dwelling seniors in Ontario, Canada, 2002–2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, C. C.; Ioannidis, G.; Cameron, C.; Croxford, R.; Adachi, J. D.; Mursleen, S.; Jaglal, S.

    2016-01-01

    Summary In this population-based study, we compared incident fracture rates in long-term care (LTC) versus community seniors between 2002 and 2012. Hip fracture rates declined more rapidly in LTC than in the community. An excess burden of fractures occurred in LTC for hip, pelvis, and humerus fractures in men and hip fractures only in women. Introduction This study compares trends in incident fracture rates between long-term care (LTC) and community-dwelling seniors ≥65 years, 2002–2012. Methods This is a population-based cohort study using administrative data. Measurements were age/sex-adjusted incident fracture rates and rate ratios (RR) and annual percent change (APC). Results Over 11 years, hip fracture rates had a marked decline occurring more rapidly in LTC (APC, −3.49 (95% confidence interval (CI), −3.97, −3.01)) compared with the community (APC, −2.93 (95 % CI, −3.28, −2.57); p< 0.05 for difference in slopes). Humerus and wrist fracture rates decreased; however, an opposite trend occurred for pelvis and spine fractures with rates increasing over time in both cohorts (all APCs, p <0.05). In 2012, incident hip fracture rates were higher in LTC than the community (RRs: women, 1.55 (95 % CI, 1.45, 1.67); men, 2.18 (95 % CI, 1.93, 2.47)). Higher rates of pelvis (RR, 1.48 (95 % CI, 1.22, 1.80)) and humerus (RR, 1.40 (95 % CI, 1.07, 1.84)) fractures were observed in LTC men, not women. In women, wrist (RR, 0.76 (95 % CI, 0.71, 0.81)) and spine (RR, 0.52 (95 % CI, 0.45, 0.61)) fracture rates were lower in LTC than the community; in men, spine (RR, 0.75 (95 % CI, 0.57, 0.98) but not wrist fracture (RR, 0.91 (95 % CI, 0.67, 1.23)) rates were significantly lower in LTC than the community. Conclusion Previous studies in the community have shown declining hip fracture rates over time, also demonstrated in our study but at a more rapid rate in LTC. Rates of humerus and wrist fractures also declined. An excess burden of fractures in LTC occurred for hip

  11. Typology and description of the endemic areas with a long-time biggest and smallest colorectal incidence rates in the Silesia voivodeship populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunon Zemła

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The colorectal cancers (C18–C21, by ICD – X revision = RJG, it a big social-clinical problem. The high level differentiation (dependent of particular countries and regions within them; for example: Silesia voivodeship common for frequency of incidence. Therefore an attempt looking for an endemic area with a longtime biggest and smallest incidence rates in the smaller population scale, what a make easy fight against cancers. Materials and methods: In the years 1999–2009 20682 persons were diagnosed for RJG. Basing on the data (as above and demographic data, the different type of rates were calculated. All statistic procedures were in detail described anywhere [4–6]. Results: In the years 1999– 2009, in Silesia voivodeship, 20 682 cases of RJG were diagnosed, i.e. 53.5% among males and 46.5% among females. Age-adjusted rate for the whole Silesia voivodeship is 31.4 per 100 thousands to men and 19.5/100 thousands to women. In comparison between two extremely periods (1999–2009 : 2006–2009, age – adjusted incidence rates among men increased about 2.9%, and among women decreased about 6.5%. The distribution of age-standardized colorectal cancer rates within Silesia voivodeship, in the years 1999–2009, taking into account 36 counties – was very unequal so among males and at the same among females. But the most important epidemiological problem was the endemic areas with significantly biggest incidence rates among males: towns on the law of county: Częstochowa, Katowice, Bielsko-Biała and counties: mikołowski and wodzisławski; among females the endemic areas of this type were Bielsko-Biała town and his county. Conclusions: 1 Within Silesia voivodeship were revealed the endemic areas at statistically significantly high or low (in a long-time then the overall incidence rate for the colorectal cancer among men and women. 2 The endemic areas with the biggest incidence colorectal rates (fig. 1D and 2D, it indications to

  12. Epidemiological study of paediatric germ cell tumours revealed the incidence and distribution that was expected, but a low mortality rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Evers, Madeline; Rechnitzer, Catherine; Graem, Niels

    2017-01-01

    AIM: Germ cell tumours (GCTs) are a rare heterogeneous tumour group derived from primordial germ cells, which can be benign or malignant and occur in the gonads or extragonadally. This study mapped the paediatric GCTs in Denmark from 1984-2013 to study the incidence and outcome. METHODS: We ident...

  13. Global incidences of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and survival rates: Systematic review of 67 prospective studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Berdowski; R.A. Berg; J.G.P. Tijssen; R.W. Koster

    2010-01-01

    Aim: The aim of this investigation was to estimate and contrast the global incidence and outcome of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) to provide a better understanding of the variability in risk and survival of OHCA. Methods: We conducted a review of published English-language articles about inc

  14. Associations of Census-Tract Poverty with Subsite-Specific Colorectal Cancer Incidence Rates and Stage of Disease at Diagnosis in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin A. Henry

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. It remains unclear whether neighborhood poverty contributes to differences in subsite-specific colorectal cancer (CRC incidence. We examined associations between census-tract poverty and CRC incidence and stage by anatomic subsite and race/ethnicity. Methods. CRC cases diagnosed between 2005 and 2009 from 15 states and Los Angeles County (N=278,097 were assigned to 1 of 4 groups based on census-tract poverty. Age-adjusted and stage-specific CRC incidence rates (IRs and incidence rate ratios (IRRs were calculated. Analyses were stratified by subsite (proximal, distal, and rectum, sex, race/ethnicity, and poverty. Results. Compared to the lowest poverty areas, CRC IRs were significantly higher in the most impoverished areas for men (IRR = 1.14 95% CI 1.12–1.17 and women (IRR = 1.06 95% CI 1.05–1.08. Rate differences between high and low poverty were strongest for distal colon (male IRR = 1.24 95% CI 1.20–1.28; female IRR = 1.14 95% CI 1.10–1.18 and weakest for proximal colon. These rate differences were significant for non-Hispanic whites and blacks and for Asian/Pacific Islander men. Inverse associations between poverty and IRs of all CRC and proximal colon were found for Hispanics. Late-to-early stage CRC IRRs increased monotonically with increasing poverty for all race/ethnicity groups. Conclusion. There are differences in subsite-specific CRC incidence by poverty, but associations were moderated by race/ethnicity.

  15. Incidence rates and deaths of tuberculosis in HIV-negative patients in the United States and Germany as analyzed by new predictive model for infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Yudong; Ding, Fan; Suo, Siqingaowa; Bu, Ri-e; Zarlenga, Dante S; Ren, Xiaofeng

    2012-01-01

    Incidence and mortality due to tuberculosis (TB) have been decreasing worldwide. Given that TB is a cosmopolitan disease, proper surveillance and evaluation are critical for controlling dissemination. Herein, mathematical modeling was performed in order to: 1) demonstrate a correlation between the incidence of TB in HIV-free patients in the US and Germany, and their corresponding mortality rates; 2) show the utility of the newly developed D-R algorithm for analyzing and predicting the incidence of TB in both countries; and 3) inform us on population death rates due to TB in HIV-negative patients. Using data published by the World Health Organization between 1990 and 2009, the relationship between incidence and mortality that could not be ascribed to HIV infection was evaluated. Using linear, quadratic and cubic curves, we found that a cubic function provided the best fit with the data in both the US (Y = 2.3588+2.2459X+61.1639X(2)-60.104X(3)) and Germany (Y = 1.9271+9.4967X+18.3824X(2)-10.350X(3)) where the correlation coefficient (R) between incidence and mortality was 0.995 and 0.993, respectively. Second, we demonstrated that fitted curves using the D-R model were equal to or better than those generated using the GM(1,1) algorithm as exemplified in the relative values for Sum of Squares of Error, Relative Standard Error, Mean Absolute Deviation, Average Relative Error, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Finally, future trends using both the D-R and the classic GM(1,1) models predicted a continued decline in infection and mortality rates of TB in HIV-negative patients rates extending to 2015 assuming no changes to diagnosis or treatment regimens are enacted.

  16. The incidence rate of corpus uteri cancer among females in Saudi Arabia: an observational descriptive epidemiological analysis of data from Saudi Cancer Registry 2001–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alghamdi IG

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Ibrahim G Alghamdi,1 Issam I Hussain,1 Mohamed S Alghamdi,2 Mohamed A El-Sheemy1,3 1University of Lincoln, Brayford Pool, Lincoln, UK; 2Ministry of Health, General Directorate of Health Affairs, Al-Baha, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 3Research and Development, Lincoln Hospital, Lincolnshire Hospitals NHS Trust, Lincoln, UK Background: The present study reviews the epidemiological data on corpus uteri cancer among Saudi women, including its frequency, crude incidence rate, and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR, adjusted by region and year of diagnosis. Methods: A retrospective, descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted of all the corpus uteri cancer cases recorded in the Saudi Cancer Registry between January 2001 and December 2008. The statistical analyses were performed using descriptive statistics, analysis of variance, Poisson regression, and a simple linear model. Results: A total of 1,060 corpus uteri cancer cases were included. Women aged 60–74 years of age were most affected by the disease. The region of Riyadh in Saudi Arabia had the highest overall ASIR, at 4.4 cases per 100,000 female patients, followed by the eastern region, at 4.2, and Makkah, at 3.7. Jazan, Najran, and Qassim had the lowest average ASIRs, ranging from 0.8 to 1.4. A Poisson regression model using Jazan as the reference revealed that the corpus uteri cancer incidence rate ratio was significantly higher for the regions of Makkah, at 16.5 times (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.0–23.0, followed by Riyadh, at 16.0 times (95% CI: 9.0–22.0, and the eastern region, at 9.9 times (95% CI: 5.6–17.6. The northern region experienced the highest changes in ASIRs of corpus uteri cancer among female Saudi patients between 2001 and 2008. Conclusion: There was a slight increase in the crude incidence rates and ASIRs for corpus uteri cancer in Saudi Arabia between 2001 and 2008. Older Saudi women were most affected by the disease. Riyadh, the eastern region, and Makkah

  17. Steps and pips in the history of the cumulative recorder.

    OpenAIRE

    Lattal, Kennon A.

    2004-01-01

    From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This review traces the evolution of the cumulative recorder from Skinner's early modified kymographs through various models developed by Skinner and his co...

  18. Incidence of cervical cancer after several negative smear results by age 50: prospective observational study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rebolj, Matejka; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Lynge, Elsebeth

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of cervical cancer after several negative cervical smear tests at different ages. DESIGN: Prospective observational study of incidence of cervical cancer after the third consecutive negative result based on individual level data in a national registry...... of histopathology and cytopathology (PALGA). SETTING: Netherlands, national data. Population 218,847 women aged 45-54 and 445,382 aged 30-44 at the time of the third negative smear test. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 10 year cumulative incidence of interval cervical cancer. RESULTS: 105 women developed cervical cancer...... within 2 595,964 woman years at risk after the third negative result at age 30-44 and 42 within 1,278,532 woman years at risk after age 45-54. During follow-up, both age groups had similar levels of screening. After 10 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidence rate of cervical cancer was similar: 41...

  19. Cumulative stress and autonomic dysregulation in a community sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampert, Rachel; Tuit, Keri; Hong, Kwang-Ik; Donovan, Theresa; Lee, Forrester; Sinha, Rajita

    2016-05-01

    Whether cumulative stress, including both chronic stress and adverse life events, is associated with decreased heart rate variability (HRV), a non-invasive measure of autonomic status which predicts poor cardiovascular outcomes, is unknown. Healthy community dwelling volunteers (N = 157, mean age 29 years) participated in the Cumulative Stress/Adversity Interview (CAI), a 140-item event interview measuring cumulative adversity including major life events, life trauma, recent life events and chronic stressors, and underwent 24-h ambulatory ECG monitoring. HRV was analyzed in the frequency domain and standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN) calculated. Initial simple regression analyses revealed that total cumulative stress score, chronic stressors and cumulative adverse life events (CALE) were all inversely associated with ultra low-frequency (ULF), very low-frequency (VLF) and low-frequency (LF) power and SDNN (all p stress and chronic stress each was significantly associated with SDNN and ULF even after the highly significant contributions of age and sex, with no other covariates accounting for additional appreciable variance. For VLF and LF, both total cumulative stress and chronic stress significantly contributed to the variance alone but were not longer significant after adjusting for race and health behaviors. In summary, total cumulative stress, and its components of adverse life events and chronic stress were associated with decreased cardiac autonomic function as measured by HRV. Findings suggest one potential mechanism by which stress may exert adverse effects on mortality in healthy individuals. Primary preventive strategies including stress management may prove beneficial.

  20. Anal human papillomavirus in HIV-uninfected men who have sex with men: incidence and clearance rates, duration of infection, and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donà, M G; Vescio, M F; Latini, A; Giglio, A; Moretto, D; Frasca, M; Benevolo, M; Rollo, F; Colafigli, M; Cristaudo, A; Giuliani, M

    2016-12-01

    Little is known regarding the natural history of anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. We aimed to evaluate incidence and clearance rates, their risk factors, and duration of anal HPV infection in HIV-uninfected men who have sex with men (MSM). A longitudinal study was conducted. Anal samples were analysed using the Linear Array HPV Genotyping test. Incidence and clearance rates, and corresponding risk factors, were estimated using a two-state Markov model. Overall, 155 MSM (median age 33.4 years) attending the largest sexually transmitted infection (STI) centre in Rome, Italy, were followed for a median of 12.2 months (Q1-Q3: 7.0-18.1). Incidence and clearance rates for any HPV were 85.6 (95% CI: 58.4-125.4) and 35.6 (95% CI: 24.7-51.5) × 1000 person-months, respectively; the median duration of infection was 9.4 months (Q1-Q3: 7.5-12.1). Receptive anal sex emerged as the only risk factor for the acquisition of any HPV (Hazard Ratio, HR = 2.65, 95% CI: 1.16-6.06). The incidence rates for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic types were 42.3 (95% CI: 29.2-61.4) and 29.2 (95% CI: 19.5-43.7) × 1000 person-months, respectively (p = 0.13); their clearance rates were 62.9 (95% CI: 45.1-87.7) and 65.7 (95% CI: 47.4-91.0) × 1000 person-months, respectively (p = 0.83). HPV16 showed the lowest clearance rate among carcinogenic types (59.7 × 1000 person-months), and a duration of infection of 16.8 months. In conclusion, a higher incidence rate was observed for carcinogenic compared to non-carcinogenic HPV types, although the difference was not significant. HPV16 emerged as the type with the longest duration of infection and the lowest clearance rate among carcinogenic types.

  1. Increased incidence rate of trauma- and stressor-related disorders in Denmark following the Breivik attacks in Norway

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Bertel Teilfeldt; Dinesen, Peter T; Østergaard, Søren D

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: On July 22, 2011, Anders Breivik killed 77 adults and children in Norway. Having recently documented increases in the incidence of trauma- and stressor-related disorders in Denmark after the 9/11 attacks, we hypothesized that the Breivik attacks-due to their geographical proximity-wou...... previous findings on extra-national consequences of terrorism and indicates that geographical proximity and media coverage may exacerbate effects....

  2. Magnetic resonance angiography and CT angiography of persistent primitive olfactory artery: Incidence and association rate with aneurysm in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Bo Ra; Yeo, Soo Hyun; Chang, Hyuk Won; Kim, Mi Jeong; Lee, Sung Moon; Kim, Ealmaan; Kim, Mi Kyung; Cho, Ho Chan; Kim, Hye Soon [Keimyung University College of Medicine, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-06-15

    Japanese data indicates an incidence of persistent primitive olfactory artery (PPOA) of 0.14%. We studied the incidence of PPOA and associated cerebral vascular variation or anomalies in Korea. We retrospectively reviewed cranial magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) and computed tomography angiography (CTA) images of a total of 9841 patients of our institution. The diagnostic criterion of PPOA is extreme anterioinferior course of the proximal anterior cerebral artery, with a hairpin turn of the lateral projection. We found 29 cases (0.29%) with PPOA. The PPOA location was on the left in 19 cases, bilateral in 3 cases, and on the right in 7 cases. An aneurysm was found at the hairpin turn in 2 patients. There were aneurysms in other sites in 3 cases. There were hypoplasia of anterior cerebral artery in 3 cases, and fenestration of intracranial artery in 1 case. In Korean populations, the incidence of PPOA found in MRA and CTA was twice as high as that shown in the previous Japanese data. Within Korea, left side laterality is more common than right side or bilalterality. Aneurysmal dilatations at the hairpin turning point and aneurysms at other sites were found, and other vascular variations were observed in several cases.

  3. Braden Scale cumulative score versus subscale scores: are we missing opportunities for pressure ulcer prevention?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadd, Molly M

    2014-01-01

    Hospital-acquired pressure ulcer incidence rates continue to rise in the United States in the acute care setting despite efforts to extinguish them, and pressure ulcers are a nursing-sensitive quality indicator. The Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk instrument has been shown to be a valid and reliable instrument for assessing pressure ulcer risk. This case study represented 1 patient out of a chart audit that reviewed 20 patients with confirmed hospital-acquired pressure ulcers. The goal of the audit was to determine whether these ulcers might be avoided if preventive interventions based on Braden subscale scores versus the cumulative score were implemented. This case study describes a patient who, deemed at low risk for pressure ulcer development based on cumulative Braden Scale, may have benefited from interventions based on the subscale scores of sensory perception, activity, and mobility. Further research is needed to determine whether interventions based on subscales may be effective for preventing pressure ulcers when compared to a protocol based exclusively on the cumulative score.

  4. Cumulant expansions for atmospheric flows

    CERN Document Server

    Ait-Chaalal, Farid; Meyer, Bettina; Marston, J B

    2015-01-01

    The equations governing atmospheric flows are nonlinear, and consequently the hierarchy of cumulant equations is not closed. But because atmospheric flows are inhomogeneous and anisotropic, the nonlinearity may manifests itself only weakly through interactions of mean fields with disturbances such as thermals or eddies. In such situations, truncations of the hierarchy of cumulant equations hold promise as a closure strategy. We review how truncations at second order can be used to model and elucidate the dynamics of turbulent atmospheric flows. Two examples are considered. First, we study the growth of a dry convective boundary layer, which is heated from below, leading to turbulent upward energy transport and growth of the boundary layer. We demonstrate that a quasilinear truncation of the equations of motion, in which interactions of disturbances among each other are neglected but interactions with mean fields are taken into account, can successfully capture the growth of the convective boundary layer. Seco...

  5. Electro-cumulation CNF project

    CERN Document Server

    Grishin, V G

    2000-01-01

    bound or free ion current within solid substances; non-plain symmetry; cumulation of the ion interaction. Experimental result: an Ice SuperPolarization. Cold nuclear fusion ? At http://www.shortway.to/to2084 . Keywords: ion, current, solid, symmetry, cumulation, cold nuclear fusion, polarization, depolarization, ionic conductor, superionic conductor, ice, crystal, strain, V-center, V-centre, doped crystal, interstitial impurity, intrinsic color center, high pressure technology, Bridgman, experiment, crowdion, dielectric, proton, layer, defect, lattice, dynamics, electromigration, mobility, muon catalysis, concentration, doping, dopant, conductivity, pycnonuclear reaction, permittivity, dielectric constant, point defects, interstitials, polarizability, imperfection, defect centers, glass, epitaxy, sodium hydroxide, metallic substrate, crystallization, point, tip, susceptibility, ferroelectric, ordering, force, correlation, collective, shift, distortion, coalescence, crowdions, electrolysis.

  6. Cholestasis sepsis at neonatology ward and neonatal Intensive Care Unit Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital 2007 : incidence, mortality rate and associated risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kadim S. Bachtiar

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Cholestatic jaundice represents serious pathological condition. Septic-cholestasis is a kind of hepato-cellular cholestasis that occured during or after sepsis caused by biliary flow obstruction. This is a cohort study from February to June 2007 on neonatal sepsis patients at Neonatology ward Department of Child Health Faculty of Medicine University of Indonesia-Cipto Mangunkusumo General National Hospital. Aim of this study is to find out the incidence of intrahepatic cholestasis in neonatal sepsis, associated risk factors, and mortality rate in neonatal cholestasis-sepsis. From 138 neonatal sepsis patients, the incidence of intrahepatic cholestasis is 65.9%. None of the risk factors tested in this study showed statistically significant result. Mortality rate of neonatal cholestasis-sepsis is 52.8%. (Med J Indones 2008; 17: 107-13Keywords: cholestasis intrahepatic, neonatal sepsis, cholestasis sepsis, conjugated hyperbilirubinemia

  7. Tingkat Insidensi Malaria di Wilayah Pemanasan Kelambu Berinsektisida Tahan Lama dan Wilayah Kontrol (MALARIA INCIDENCE RATE OF HEAT ASSISTED REGENERATION LONG LASTING INSECTICIDAL NETS AREA AND CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etih Sudarnika

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Long lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN is one effective way to prevent malaria. Permethrin treatedLLIN is one type of LLIN which is recommended by WHO. Several studies have shown that these types ofLLIN requiring heat assisted regeneration after washing to enhance the biological activity of insecticidethat contained in the LLIN fibers. This study aimed to compare the incidence rates of malaria in childrenunder five years old who live in the intervention area (where the heat assisted regeneration on LLIN afterwashing was applied and control area (where the heat assisted regeneration on LLIN after washing wasnot applied. Data of malaria cases was collected from laboratory log book at all health centers in BangkaDistrict, in the period of June June 2007 until July 2008. Data were analyzed with Poisson regressionmodels. The results showed that the incidence rate of malaria in children under five years old was notsignificantly different between the treatment and control areas.

  8. Cancer incidence in pulmonary vasculitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zycinska, Katarzyna; Kostrzewa-Janicka, Jolanta; Nitsch-Osuch, Aneta; Wardyn, Kazimierz

    2013-01-01

    Pulmonary vasculitis is a potentially lethal autoimmune disease characterized by granulomatous inflammation of respiratory tract, necrotizing vasculitis affecting small-to medium-size vessels and antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies elevation. Typical therapy involves high-dose glucocorticosteroids combined with cyclophosphamide in a dose 1-2 mg/kg/per day. A high relapse rate in pulmonary vasculitis means prolonged courses of cyclophosphamide in some patients. Carcinogenic effects of cyclophosphamide, especially its toxic metabolite acrolein that is excreted into the urine, are responsible for the development of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and bladder cancer. These and other malignancies are cyclophosphamide dose-depended. The aim of the present study was to assess the incidence of cancer in patients with pulmonary vasculitis in comparison with the incidence of cancer in the general population. Analyses were done according to the cumulative dose of cyclophosphamide, subdivided into low (≤35 g) and high (>35 g). During the observation period 15 cancers occurred. A significantly increased standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was observed for non-melanoma skin cancers (SIR 5.2; 95 % Cl 2.3-8.7), AML (SIR 4.3; 95 % Cl 2.1-11.2), and bladder cancer (SIR 3.4; 95 % Cl 1.6-5.2). Induction remission treatment and relapse treatment with cyclophosphamide involves a substantial risk of late appearing malignances in patients with pulmonary vasculitis. Monitoring and prophylactic management in pulmonary vasculitis after cessation of cyclophosphamide therapy is crucial.

  9. Prospective study on incidence, risk factors, and long-term outcome of osteonecrosis in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winkel, M.L. te; Pieters, R.; Hop, W.C.J.; Groot-Kruseman, H.A. de; Lequin, M.H.; Sluis, I.M. van der; Bokkerink, J.P.M.; Leeuw, J.A. de; Bruin, M.C.; Egeler, R.M.; Veerman, A.J.P.; Heuvel-Eibrink, M.M. van den

    2011-01-01

    PURPOSE: We studied cumulative incidence, risk factors, therapeutic strategies, and outcome of symptomatic osteonecrosis in pediatric patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Cumulative incidence of osteonecrosis was assessed prospectively in 694 patients treated with

  10. Prospective Study on Incidence, Risk Factors, and Long-Term Outcome of Osteonecrosis in Pediatric Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winkel, Mariel L. Te; Pieters, Rob; Hop, Wim C. J.; de Groot-Kruseman, Hester A.; Lequin, Maarten H.; van der Sluis, Inge M.; Bokkerink, Jos P. M.; Leeuw, Jan A.; Bruin, Marrie C. A.; Egeler, R. Maarten; Veerman, Anjo J. P.; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose We studied cumulative incidence, risk factors, therapeutic strategies, and outcome of symptomatic osteonecrosis in pediatric patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Patients and Methods Cumulative incidence of osteonecrosis was assessed prospectively in 694 patients treated with th

  11. Incidence of Second Malignancies in Prostate Cancer Patients Treated With Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy and Radical Prostatectomy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, Sarah Nicole; Tyldesley, Scott [Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Hamm, Jeremy [Department of Population Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Jiang, Wei Ning [Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Keyes, Mira; Pickles, Tom [Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Lapointe, Vince [Department of Medical Physics, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Kahnamelli, Adam [Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); McKenzie, Michael [Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Miller, Stacy [Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Centre for the North, Prince George, British Columbia (Canada); Morris, W. James, E-mail: jmorris@bccancer.bc.ca [Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency–Vancouver Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada)

    2014-11-15

    Purpose: To compare the second malignancy incidence in prostate cancer patients treated with brachytherapy (BT) relative to radical prostatectomy (RP) and to compare both groups with the cancer incidence in the general population. Methods and Materials: From 1998 to 2010, 2418 patients were treated with Iodine 125 prostate BT monotherapy at the British Columbia Cancer Agency, and 4015 referred patients were treated with RP. Cancer incidence was compared with the age-matched general population using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). Pelvic malignancies included invasive and noninvasive bladder cancer and rectal cancer. Cox multivariable analysis was performed with adjustment for covariates to determine whether treatment (RP vs BT) was associated with second malignancy risk. Results: The median age at BT was 66 years and at RP 62 years. The SIR comparing BT patients with the general population was 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91-1.22) for second malignancy and was 1.53 (95% CI 1.12-2.04) for pelvic malignancy. The SIR comparing RP patients with the general population was 1.11 (95% CI 0.98-1.25) for second malignancy and was 1.11 (95% CI 0.82-1.48) for pelvic malignancy. On multivariable analysis, older age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.05) and smoking (HR 1.65) were associated with increased second malignancy risk (P<.0001). Radical prostatectomy was not associated with a decreased second malignancy risk relative to BT (HR 0.90, P=.43), even when excluding patients who received postprostatectomy external beam radiation therapy (HR 1.13, P=.25). Older age (HR 1.09, P<.0001) and smoking (HR 2.17, P=.0009) were associated with increased pelvic malignancy risk. Radical prostatectomy was not associated with a decreased pelvic malignancy risk compared with BT (HR 0.57, P=.082), even when excluding postprostatectomy external beam radiation therapy patients (HR 0.87, P=.56). Conclusions: After adjustment for covariates, BT patients did not have an increased second

  12. Exploring disparities in incidence and mortality rates of breast and gynecologic cancers according to the Human Development Index in the Pan-American region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Mesa, J; Werutsky, G; Michiels, S; Pereira Filho, C A S; Dueñas-González, A; Zarba, J J; Mano, M; Villarreal-Garza, C; Gómez, H; Barrios, C H

    2017-08-01

    To evaluate whether a country's Human Development Index (HDI) can help explain the differences in the country's breast cancer and gynecological cancer incidence and mortality rates in the Pan-American region. Ecological analysis. Pan-American region countries with publicly available data both in GLOBOCAN 2012 and the United Nations Development Report 2012 were included (n = 28). Incidence and mortality rates age-standardized per 100,000 were natural log-transformed for breast cancer, ovarian cancer, corpus uteri cancer, and cervical cancer. The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was calculated for each site. Pearson's correlation test and a simple linear regression were performed. The HDI showed a positive correlation with breast cancer and ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates, respectively, and a negative correlation with cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates. The HDI and corpus uteri cancer showed no association. MIR and the HDI showed a negative correlation for all tumor types except ovarian cancer. An increment in 1 HDI unit leads to changes in cancer rates: in breast cancer incidence β = 4.03 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.61; 5.45) P < 0.001, breast cancer mortality β = 1.76 (95% CI 0.32; 3.21) P = 0.019, and breast cancer-MIR β = -0.705 (95% CI 0.704; 0.706) P < 0.001; in cervical cancer incidence β = -3.28 (95% CI -4.78; -1.78) P < 0.001, cervical cancer mortality β = -4.63 (95% CI -6.10; -3.17) P < 0.001, and cervical cancer-MIR β = -1.35 (95% CI -1.83; -0.87) P < 0.001; in ovarian cancer incidence β = 3.26 (95% CI 1.78; 4.75) P < 0.001, ovarian cancer mortality β = 1.82 (95% CI 0.44; 3.20) P = 0.012, and ovarian cancer-MIR β = 5.10 (95% CI 3.22; 6.97) P < 0.001; in corpus uteri cancer incidence β = 2.37 (95% CI -0.33; 5.06) P = 0.83, corpus uteri cancer mortality β = 0.68 (95% CI -2.68; 2.82) P = 0.96, and corpus uteri cancer-MIR β = -2.30 (95% CI -3.19; -1.40) P < 0.001. A

  13. Cumulative Paired φ-Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingo Klein

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A new kind of entropy will be introduced which generalizes both the differential entropy and the cumulative (residual entropy. The generalization is twofold. First, we simultaneously define the entropy for cumulative distribution functions (cdfs and survivor functions (sfs, instead of defining it separately for densities, cdfs, or sfs. Secondly, we consider a general “entropy generating function” φ, the same way Burbea et al. (IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 1982, 28, 489–495 and Liese et al. (Convex Statistical Distances; Teubner-Verlag, 1987 did in the context of φ-divergences. Combining the ideas of φ-entropy and cumulative entropy leads to the new “cumulative paired φ-entropy” ( C P E φ . This new entropy has already been discussed in at least four scientific disciplines, be it with certain modifications or simplifications. In the fuzzy set theory, for example, cumulative paired φ-entropies were defined for membership functions, whereas in uncertainty and reliability theories some variations of C P E φ were recently considered as measures of information. With a single exception, the discussions in the scientific disciplines appear to be held independently of each other. We consider C P E φ for continuous cdfs and show that C P E φ is rather a measure of dispersion than a measure of information. In the first place, this will be demonstrated by deriving an upper bound which is determined by the standard deviation and by solving the maximum entropy problem under the restriction of a fixed variance. Next, this paper specifically shows that C P E φ satisfies the axioms of a dispersion measure. The corresponding dispersion functional can easily be estimated by an L-estimator, containing all its known asymptotic properties. C P E φ is the basis for several related concepts like mutual φ-information, φ-correlation, and φ-regression, which generalize Gini correlation and Gini regression. In addition, linear rank tests for scale that

  14. Are there national risk factors for epidemic cholera? The correlation between socioeconomic and demographic indices and cholera incidence in Latin America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackers, M L; Quick, R E; Drasbek, C J; Hutwagner, L; Tauxe, R V

    1998-04-01

    From 1991 through 1995, all Latin American countries maintained cholera surveillance systems to track the epidemic that entered the region through Peru in January 1991. These data were used to assess correlations between socioeconomic and demographic indices that might serve as national risk predictors for epidemic cholera in Latin America. Correlations between country-specific cumulative cholera incidence rates from 1991 through 1995 and infant mortality, the Human Development Index [HDI] a numerical value based on life expectancy, education, and income), gross national product (GNP) per capita, and female literacy were tested using the Pearson correlation coefficient. A total of 1,339,834 cholera cases with a cumulative incidence rate of 183 per 100,000 population were reported from affected Western Hemisphere countries from 1991 through 1995. Infant mortality rates were the most strongly correlated with cumulative cholera incidence based on the Pearson correlation coefficient. The HDI had a less strong negative correlation with cumulative cholera incidence. The GNP per capita and female literacy rates were weakly and negatively correlated with cholera cumulative incidence rates. Infant mortality and possibly the HDI may be useful indirect indices of the risk of sustained transmission of cholera within a Latin American country. Cumulative cholera incidence is decreased particularly in countries with infant mortality below 40 per 1000 live births. The lack of reported cholera cases in Uruguay and the Caribbean may reflect a low risk for ongoing transmission, consistent with socioeconomic and demographic indices. Cholera surveillance remains an important instrument for determining cholera trends within individual countries and regions.

  15. [Incidence and trend analysis of esophageal cancer in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuo, T T; Zheng, R S; Zeng, H M; Zhang, S W; Chen, W Q; He, J

    2016-09-23

    Incidence data retrieved from population-based cancer registration were used to analyze the esophageal cancer incidence and trend in China. The results can provide basic information for prevention and control of esophageal cancer. Esophageal cancer incidence data in 2012 were retrieved from the National Central Cancer Registry, nationwide new esophageal cancer cases were estimated using age-specific rate by urban or rural and gender and national population in 2012. Esophageal cancer incidence data from 22 cancer registries were used to analyze the trend during 2000-2011. The estimates of new cases of esophageal cancer were about 286.7 thousand in 2012 in China. The incidence rate was 21.17/10(5,) the age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and by world population were 14.73/10(5) and 14.93/10(5,) respectively, and the cumulative incidence rate was 1.91%.There was a decreasing trend of incidence rate of esophageal cancer in registration areas of China during 2000-2011 with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.9% (95%CI: -1.6% to -0.1%), no significant differences were observed in urban area and an increasing trend with AAPC of 1.3% (95%CI: 0.2% to 2.5%) in rural area. After age standardization, the incidence rate was significantly decreased, with AAPC of -4.0% (95%CI: -5.5% to -2.6%) overall, -3.8% (95%CI: -4.9% to -2.7%) in urban and -1.7% (95%CI: -3.0% to -0.4%) in rural areas. Esophageal cancer is one of the most common cancers in China and is an emphasis for cancer control. After effective control of risk factors and development of esophageal cancer screening techniques in high-risk areas for years, esophageal cancer incidence appears to have a significant decreasing trend.

  16. Role of solar UVB irradiance and smoking in cancer as inferred from cancer incidence rates by occupation in Nordic countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, William B

    2012-04-01

    A large body of evidence indicates that solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) irradiance and vitamin D reduce the risk of incidence and death for many types of cancer. However, most of that evidence comes from midlatitude regions, where solar UVB doses are generally high in summer. Data on cancer standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) by sex and 54 occupation categories based on 1.4 million male and 1.36 million female cancer cases for 1961-2005 in the five Nordic countries provide the basis for an ecological study of the role of solar UVB in the risk of many types of cancer at high latitudes. Lip cancer SIRs less lung cancer SIRs for men was the best index of solar UVB dose, which was weakly inversely correlated with both melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) SIRs. Lung cancer SIRs were used as the index of the effects of smoking. For men, the UVB index was significantly inversely correlated with 14 types of internal cancer-bladder, breast, colon, gallbladder, kidney, laryngeal, liver, lung, oral, pancreatic, pharyngeal, prostate, rectal and small intestine cancer. For women, the same UVB index was inversely correlated with bladder, breast and colon cancer. These results generally agree with findings from other studies. These results provide more support for the UVB-vitamin D-cancer hypothesis and suggest that widespread fear of chronic solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance may be misplaced.

  17. Innovativeness, population size and cumulative cultural evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Aoki, Kenichi

    2012-08-01

    Henrich [Henrich, J., 2004. Demography and cultural evolution: how adaptive cultural processes can produce maladaptive losses-the Tasmanian case. Am. Antiquity 69, 197-214] proposed a model designed to show that larger population size facilitates cumulative cultural evolution toward higher skill levels. In this model, each newborn attempts to imitate the most highly skilled individual of the parental generation by directly-biased social learning, but the skill level he/she acquires deviates probabilistically from that of the exemplar (cultural parent). The probability that the skill level of the imitator exceeds that of the exemplar can be regarded as the innovation rate. After reformulating Henrich's model rigorously, we introduce an overlapping-generations analog based on the Moran model and derive an approximate formula for the expected change per generation of the highest skill level in the population. For large population size, our overlapping-generations model predicts a much larger effect of population size than Henrich's discrete-generations model. We then investigate by way of Monte Carlo simulations the case where each newborn chooses as his/her exemplar the most highly skilled individual from among a limited number of acquaintances. When the number of acquaintances is small relative to the population size, we find that a change in the innovation rate contributes more than a proportional change in population size to the cumulative cultural evolution of skill level.

  18. Heart rate' based training intensity and its impact on injury incidence amongst elite level professional soccer players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Adam L; Forsyth, Jacky J; Wong, Del P; Dellal, Alexandre; Connelly, Sean; Chamari, Karim

    2014-12-24

    Elite level professional soccer players are suggested to have increased physical, technical, tactical and psychological capabilities when compared to their sub-elite counterparts. Ensuring these players remain at the elite level generally involves training many different bodily systems to a high intensity or level within a short duration. This study aimed to examine whether an increase in training volume at high intensity levels were related to injury incidence, or increased the odds of sustaining an injury. Training intensity was monitored through time spent in high- (T-HI) and very high- (T-VHI) intensity zones of 85-level players may be possible if greater focus is placed on the training intensity and volume over a period of time ensuring the potential reduction of fatigue or overuse injuries. In addition, it is important to understand the optimal training load at which adaptation occurs without raising the risk of injury.

  19. Heart rate-based training intensity and its impact on injury incidence among elite-level professional soccer players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Adam L; Forsyth, Jacky J; Wong, Del P; Dellal, Alexandre; Connelly, Sean P; Chamari, Karim

    2015-06-01

    Elite-level professional soccer players are suggested to have increased physical, technical, tactical, and psychological capabilities when compared with their subelite counterparts. Ensuring these players remain at the elite level generally involves training many different bodily systems to a high intensity or level within a short duration. This study aimed to examine whether an increase in training volume at high-intensity levels was related to injury incidence, or increased the odds of sustaining an injury. Training intensity was monitored through time spent in high-intensity (T-HI) and very high-intensity (T-VHI) zones of 85-level professional players may be possible if greater focus is placed on the training intensity and volume over a period of time ensuring the potential reduction of fatigue or overuse injuries. In addition, it is important to understand the optimal training load at which adaptation occurs without raising the risk of injury.

  20. The Algebra of the Cumulative Percent Operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Andrew J.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses how to help students avoid some pervasive reasoning errors in solving cumulative percent problems. Discusses the meaning of ."%+b%." the additive inverse of ."%." and other useful applications. Emphasizes the operational aspect of the cumulative percent concept. (KHR)

  1. Adaptive strategies for cumulative cultural learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehn, Micael; Laland, Kevin

    2012-05-21

    The demographic and ecological success of our species is frequently attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture. However, it is not yet known how humans combine social and asocial learning to generate effective strategies for learning in a cumulative cultural context. Here we explore how cumulative culture influences the relative merits of various pure and conditional learning strategies, including pure asocial and social learning, critical social learning, conditional social learning and individual refiner strategies. We replicate the Rogers' paradox in the cumulative setting. However, our analysis suggests that strategies that resolved Rogers' paradox in a non-cumulative setting may not necessarily evolve in a cumulative setting, thus different strategies will optimize cumulative and non-cumulative cultural learning.

  2. Incidence Rate and Epidemiological and Clinical Aspects of Kawasaki Disease in Children of Maghrebi Origin in the Province of Quebec, Canada, Compared to the Country of Origin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arbia Abir Gorrab MD

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The incidence of Kawasaki disease in Maghreb countries is apparently low, unlike those living in the province of Quebec, Canada. This retrospective study compared Maghrebi children living in Quebec to the countries of origin, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. The annualized incidence rate in Quebec (18.49/year/100 000 children under 5 years of age was 4 to 12 times higher than in Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria (0.95, 4.52, and 3.15, respectively. The prevalence of incomplete diagnostic criteria was higher in Quebec at 39%, Morocco 43%, and Tunisia 39% compared to Algeria at 8%, with minimal delayed diagnosis (7% only in Quebec compared to 30%, 35%, and 62%, respectively (P < .001. The rate of coronary aneurysms was comparable however (11% in Quebec vs 4%, 10%, and 25%, in Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria, respectively; P = .31. The higher incidence of Kawasaki disease in the Maghreb community in Quebec versus the countries of origin seems due to underdiagnosis, which represents a public health concern in those countries.

  3. Trends in Breast Cancer Incidence Rates by Age and Stage at Diagnosis in Gharbiah, Egypt, over 10 Years (1999–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly A. Hirko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. This study was undertaken to evaluate trends in breast cancer incidence in Egypt from 1999 to 2008 and to make projections for breast cancer occurrence for the years 2009–2015. Patients and Methods. We utilized joinpoint regression and average annual percent change (AAPC measures with 95% confidence intervals (CI to describe the trends in breast cancer incidence rates from the Gharbiah Cancer Registry by age and stage at diagnosis and to estimate expected breast cancer caseloads for 2009–2015. Results. From 1999 to 2008, the AAPC in breast cancer incidence rates in Gharbiah significantly increased among women 50 years and older and among localized tumors (AAPC %, 95% CI, 3.1% to 8.0%. Our results predict a significant increase in breast cancer caseloads from 2009 to 2015 among women aged 30–39 (AAPC %, 95% CI, 0.9% to 1.1% and among women aged 40–49 years (AAPC %, 95% CI, 1.0% to 2.6%. Conclusion. These results have important implications for allocating limited resources, managing treatment needs, and exploring the consequences of prior interventions and/or changing risk factors in Egypt and other developing countries at the same stages of demographic and health transitions.

  4. Incidence and recurrence of acute otitis media in Taiwan's pediatric population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pa-Chun Wang

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To report the incidence and recurrence of acute otitis media (AOM in Taiwan's pediatric population. METHODS: Information from children (aged <= 12 years with a diagnosis of AOM was retrieved from the 2006 National Healthcare Insurance claims database. We calculated the cumulative incidence rate and the incidence density rate of recurrent AOM within one year after the initial diagnosis in 2006. We used a multivariate logistic regression model to assess the predictors for recurrence of AOM. RESULTS: The annual incidence rate of AOM was estimated to be 64.5 cases per 1,000 children. The overall one-year cumulative incidence rate of recurrence was 33.1%, and the incidence density rate was 33.5 cases per 100 personyears, with the highest figure (41.2 cases per 100 person-years noted for children aged 0-2 years. Recurrence was significantly associated with age, gender, place of treatment, and physician specialty. CONCLUSION: AOM remains a major threat to children's health in Taiwan. Male children and very young children require more aggressive preventive strategies to reduce the risk of recurrence.

  5. "Buddha's Light" of Cumulative Particles

    CERN Document Server

    Kopeliovich, Vladimir B; Potashnikova, Irina K

    2014-01-01

    We show analytically that in the cumulative particles production off nuclei multiple interactions lead to a glory-like backward focusing effect. Employing the small phase space method we arrived at a characteristic angular dependence of the production cross section $d\\sigma \\sim 1/ \\sqrt {\\pi - \\theta}$ near the strictly backward direction. This effect takes place for any number $n\\geq 3 $ of interactions of rescattered particle, either elastic or inelastic (with resonance excitations in intermediate states), when the final particle is produced near corresponding kinematical boundary. Such a behaviour of the cross section near the backward direction is in qualitative agreement with some of available data.

  6. Incidence Rate and Epidemiological and Clinical Aspects of Kawasaki Disease in Children of Maghrebi Origin in the Province of Quebec, Canada, Compared to the Country of Origin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorrab, Arbia Abir; Fournier, Anne; Bouaziz, Asma Abed; Spigelblatt, Linda; Scuccimarri, Rosie; Mrabet, Ali; Dahdah, Nagib

    2016-01-01

    The incidence of Kawasaki disease in Maghreb countries is apparently low, unlike those living in the province of Quebec, Canada. This retrospective study compared Maghrebi children living in Quebec to the countries of origin, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. The annualized incidence rate in Quebec (18.49/year/100 000 children under 5 years of age) was 4 to 12 times higher than in Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria (0.95, 4.52, and 3.15, respectively). The prevalence of incomplete diagnostic criteria was higher in Quebec at 39%, Morocco 43%, and Tunisia 39% compared to Algeria at 8%, with minimal delayed diagnosis (7%) only in Quebec compared to 30%, 35%, and 62%, respectively (P disease in the Maghreb community in Quebec versus the countries of origin seems due to underdiagnosis, which represents a public health concern in those countries.

  7. Simple Estimation of Incident HIV Infection Rates in Notification Cohorts Based on Window Periods of Algorithms for Evaluation of Line-Immunoassay Result Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüpbach, Jörg; Gebhardt, Martin D.; Scherrer, Alexandra U.; Bisset, Leslie R.; Niederhauser, Christoph; Regenass, Stephan; Yerly, Sabine; Aubert, Vincent; Suter, Franziska; Pfister, Stefan; Martinetti, Gladys; Andreutti, Corinne; Klimkait, Thomas; Brandenberger, Marcel; Günthard, Huldrych F.

    2013-01-01

    Background Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. Methods We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship ‘Prevalence  =  Incidence x Duration’ in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship ‘incident  =  true incident + false incident’ and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. Results Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R2 = 0.962; Palgorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. Conclusions IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts. PMID:23990968

  8. Trends in overall opportunistic illnesses, Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, cerebral toxoplasmosis andMycobacterium avium complex incidence rates over the 30 years of the HIV epidemic: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lara Coelho

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The natural history of HIV infection has changed dramatically after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. Currently, opportunistic illnesses still represent a major cause of death and hospitalization in this population. In this study, we review the trends in opportunistic illnesses incidence rates and compare the results observed in high-income settings with that for low/middle-income settings, with special attention given to studies from Brazil. METHODS: We systematically searched Pubmed, Web of Science, Lilacs and Google scholar for publications on HIV associated opportunistic illness. Studies reporting rates based on person-time for all opportunistic illnesses and/or the three opportunistic infections of interest, namely,Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, cerebral toxoplasmosis, and Mycobacterium avium complex were included. RESULTS: Significant reductions in the incidence rates were demonstrated for opportunistic illnesses overall and also for the specific opportunistic infections included in the present study, both in high and low/middle-income settings. Out of the 37 studies included in the present review, almost 70% were from high-income settings. All the studies conducted in low/middle-income settings were single center studies and four were from Brazil. We found no study from Brazil reporting annual incidence rates of opportunistic illnesses. CONCLUSIONS: Opportunistic illnesses remain an important public health problem. To better guide health policies in low/middle-income settings, multicenter cohort studies should be encouraged. Studies from Brazil are urgently needed to assess the current burden of opportunistic illnesses in our population and to support the planning of HIV/AIDS health care services organization.

  9. Improvement in in vitro fertilization rate, decrease in reactive oxygen species and spermatozoa death incidence in rams by dietary fish oil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matini Behzad, A; Ebrahimi, B; Alizadeh, A R; Esmaeili, V; Dalman, A; Rashki, L; Shahverdi, A H

    2014-08-01

    Our aim was to evaluate the effects of fish oil feeding on sperm classical parameters, level of reactive oxygen spices (ROS), spermatozoa death incidence and in vitro fertilization (IVF) rate in rams. We randomly assigned nine rams, into two experimental groups (isoenergetic and isonitrogenous rations with constant level of vitamin E supplement): control (CTR; n = 5) and fish oil (FO; n = 4, 35 g/day/ram). Diets were fed for 70 days during the physiological breeding season. After a 21-day dietary adaptation period, semen was collected weekly from each ram by an artificial vagina. Sperm classical parameters were determined by the computer-assisted sperm analyzer system (CASA), and it was prepared for IVF process by swim-up technique. These evaluations were performed during the first and last weeks of sampling. Intracellular ROS level and spermatozoa death incidence were detected by flow cytometry on a weekly basis after adaptation. Data were analysed with SPSS 15. The volume, concentration (3.6 and 2.7 × 10(9) /ml) and sperm progressive motility (60 and 48%) were significantly improved in the FO group compared with the CTR (p < 0.05). A comparison of two-cell stage embryos following IVF in the two groups showed a significantly higher fertilization rate in the FO group (56%) compared with the CTR (49%). Superoxide anion (O2 (-) ) rate was significantly lower (p < 0.05) at the third week of sampling in the FO. Although the H2 O2 rate was numerically lower in the FO group compared with the CTR, this difference was not significant. In addition, apoptosis showed a significant difference in the third week of sampling (15 and 30% for FO and CTR, respectively; p < 0.05). Overall, adding fish oil to the ram diet not only improved sperm quality and IVF results, it also could reduce oxygen-free radicals and the incidence of spermatozoa death.

  10. 早产儿视网膜病变的发病率及防治%Incidence Rate and Prevention and Cure of Retinopathy of Prematurity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    田丽敏; 闫安; 吴素英

    2016-01-01

    早产儿视网膜病变(ROP)是儿童致盲的主要原因之一,无论在发达国家或发展中国家,都普遍存在视网膜致盲问题。随着新生儿重症监护技术的改善和新生儿护理技术的提高,早产儿及低出生体重儿的生存率逐步提高,早产儿视网膜病变的发病率呈逐年上升趋势。为提早预防、降低ROP发病率、改善预后提供科学的依据,现对各国ROP的发病率及防治进行综述。%The retinopathy of prematurity is one of the major causes of occoecatio in children, no matter in the developed country or in the developing country, and the retinopathy of prematurity issue is common, with the improvement of neonatal intensive care technologies and neonatal nursing technologies, the survival rate of premature and low birth weight infants gradually increases, and the incidence rate of retinopathy of prematurity shows an increasing trend annually, the paper pro-vides a scientific basis for early prevention, reducing the incidence rate of ROP and improving the prognosis and summa-rizes the incidence rate of ROP and prevention and cure.

  11. FEEDING INCIDENCE, GROWTH AND SURVIVAL RATE IN THE EARLY STAGE OF THE RED-SPOTTED GROUPER, Epinephelus akaara, IN RELATION TO TANK COLOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eri Setiadi

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The red-spotted grouper, Epinephelus akaara, is one of marine fish species targeted for mariculture in Japan. The artificial mass seedling production of these species has been largely successful. However, the survival is still unstable. The effect of tank colors on the feeding incidence, feeding proportion, growth and survival rates in the early stage of the red-spotted grouper were examined. The results showed the feeding incidence, feeding proportion, growth, and survival rates at different tank colors were highly significantly different (P<0.001. Post hoc multiple comparisons based on Tukey’s test showed significant differences (P<0.05 regarding feeding incidence between yellow (70.45% compared to white (55.83%, black (48.42%, green (41.67%, blue (35.17%, and red (32.50%. The highest feeding proportion (number of rotifer in the stomach/larvae was found at yellow (5.62, followed by white (2.47, black (1.97, green (1.92, blue (1.71, and red (1.28. The specific growth rate showed significant differences (P<0.05 were found at yellow (2.14% and white (1.84% compared to black (1.46%, green (1.20%, blue (1.15%, and red (1.13%. The survival rate at yellow color (1.22% was the highest, followed by white (1.09%, black (0.79%, green (0.57%, blue (0.38%, and red (0.37%. Yellow was suitable as tank wall color for rearing of red-spotted grouper larvae.

  12. A paradox of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

    2015-08-21

    Culture can grow cumulatively if socially learnt behaviors are improved by individual learning before being passed on to the next generation. Previous authors showed that this kind of learning strategy is unlikely to be evolutionarily stable in the presence of a trade-off between learning and reproduction. This is because culture is a public good that is freely exploited by any member of the population in their model (cultural social dilemma). In this paper, we investigate the effect of vertical transmission (transmission from parents to offspring), which decreases the publicness of culture, on the evolution of cumulative culture in both infinite and finite population models. In the infinite population model, we confirm that culture accumulates largely as long as transmission is purely vertical. It turns out, however, that introduction of even slight oblique transmission drastically reduces the equilibrium level of culture. Even more surprisingly, if the population size is finite, culture hardly accumulates even under purely vertical transmission. This occurs because stochastic extinction due to random genetic drift prevents a learning strategy from accumulating enough culture. Overall, our theoretical results suggest that introducing vertical transmission alone does not really help solve the cultural social dilemma problem. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Retrospective observation on contribution and limitations of screening for breast cancer with mammography in Korea: detection rate of breast cancer and incidence rate of interval cancer of the breast

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Background The purpose of this study was to determine the benefits and limitations of screening for breast cancer using mammography. Methods Descriptive design with follow-up was used in the study. Data from breast cancer screening and health insurance claim data were used. The study population consisted of all participants in breast cancer screening from 2009 to 2014. Crude detection rate, positive predictive value and sensitivity and specificity of breast cancer screening and, incidence rat...

  14. Incidence rate of symptomatic painless thyroiditis presenting with thyrotoxicosis in Denmark as evaluated by consecutive thyroid scintigraphies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwartz, Frederik; Bergmann, Natasha; Zerahn, Bo;

    2013-01-01

    Painless thyroiditis (PT) is a transient kind of thyrotoxicosis, with lack of uptake on a thyroid scintigraphy in a non-tender thyroid gland, elevated anti-TPO antibodies, no fever, no history of increased iodine intake, and a normal sedimentation rate. The prevalence of PT varies hugely in the l......Painless thyroiditis (PT) is a transient kind of thyrotoxicosis, with lack of uptake on a thyroid scintigraphy in a non-tender thyroid gland, elevated anti-TPO antibodies, no fever, no history of increased iodine intake, and a normal sedimentation rate. The prevalence of PT varies hugely...

  15. Incidence of atrial fibrillation in relation to changing heart rate over time in hypertensive patients: the LIFE study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Okin, Peter M; Wachtell, Kristian; Kjeldsen, Sverre E;

    2008-01-01

    Onset of atrial fibrillation (AF) has been linked to changes in autonomic tone, with increasing heart rate (HR) immediately before AF onset in some patients suggesting a possible role of acute increases in sympathetic activity in AF onset. Although losartan therapy and decreasing ECG left...

  16. Cost-Effectiveness of Different Cervical Screening Strategies in Islamic Republic of Iran: A Middle-Income Country with a Low Incidence Rate of Cervical Cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azin Nahvijou

    Full Text Available Invasive cervical cancer (ICC is the fourth most common cancer among women worldwide. Cervical screening programs have reduced the incidence and mortality rates of ICC. We studied the cost-effectiveness of different cervical screening strategies in the Islamic Republic of Iran, a Muslim country with a low incidence rate of ICC.We constructed an 11-state Markov model, in which the parameters included regression and progression probabilities, test characteristics, costs, and utilities; these were extracted from primary data and the literature. Our strategies included Pap smear screening and human papillomavirus (HPV DNA testing plus Pap smear triaging with different starting ages and screening intervals. Model outcomes included lifetime costs, life years gained, quality-adjusted life years (QALY, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the stability of the results.We found that the prevented mortalities for the 11 strategies compared with no screening varied from 26% to 64%. The most cost-effective strategy was HPV screening, starting at age 35 years and repeated every 10 years. The ICER of this strategy was $8,875 per QALY compared with no screening. We found that screening at 5-year intervals was also cost-effective based on GDP per capita in Iran.We recommend organized cervical screening with HPV DNA testing for women in Iran, beginning at age 35 and repeated every 10 or 5 years. The results of this study could be generalized to other countries with low incidence rates of cervical cancer.

  17. A validation of the Danish microbiology database (MiBa) and incidence rate of Actinotignum schaalii (Actinobaculum schaalii) bacteraemia in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bank, S; Søby, K M; Kristensen, L H; Voldstedlund, M; Prag, J

    2015-12-01

    Actinotignum schaalii (former named Actinobaculum schaalii) can cause urinary tract infections (UTIs) and bacteraemia, mainly in the elderly. A. schaalii is difficult to identify with conventional biochemical tests, and it is often overlooked if the urine is only cultured in ambient air. The aim of this study was to validate data from the nationwide Danish microbiology database (MiBa) with data from the laboratory information system (LIS) at the local department of microbiology in Viborg-Herning, and to evaluate the incidence rate of bacteraemia caused by A. schaalii in Denmark by using data from the MiBa. All departments of microbiology in Denmark report data to the MiBa. All microbiological samples with A. schaalii in Denmark were extracted for a period of 5 years from the MiBa and from the local LISs. All data obtained from our local LIS were also found in the MiBa, except for data on real-time PCR, which were not registered, owing to missing ID codes in the MiBa. From 2010 to 2014, there was a significant increase in the incidence rate of blood cultures with A. schaalii, from 1.8 to 6.8 cases per million, which was probably due to coincident implementation of matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) in routine diagnostics. We found that A. schaalii caused bacteraemia and UTIs mainly in the elderly. In conclusion, the MiBa can be a useful source of nationwide microbiological data in Denmark. Our results suggest that the incidence rate of A. schaalii as a cause of bacteraemia has been underestimated, and that culture of urine in CO2 can improve the detection of A. schaalii.

  18. Intravitreal injection analysis at the Bascom Palmer Eye Institute: evaluation of clinical indications for the treatment and incidence rates of endophthalmitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludimila L Cavalcante

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Ludimila L Cavalcante, Milena L Cavalcante, Timothy G Murray, Michael M Vigoda, Yolanda Piña, Christina L Decatur, R Prince Davis, Lisa C Olmos, Amy C Schefler, Michael B Parrott, Kyle J Alliman, Harry W Flynn, Andrew A MoshfeghiBascom Palmer Eye Institute, Department of Ophthalmology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL, USAObjective: To report the incidence of endophthalmitis, in addition to its clinical and microbiological aspects, after intravitreal injection of vascular-targeting agents.Methods: A retrospective review of a consecutive series of 10,142 intravitreal injections of vascular targeting agents (bevacizumab, ranibizumab, triamcinolone acetonide, and preservative-free triamcinolone acetonide between June 1, 2007 and January 31, 2010, performed by a single service (TGM at the Bascom Palmer Eye Institute.Results: One case of clinically-suspected endophthalmitis was identified out of a total of 10,142 injections (0.009%, presenting within three days of injection of bevacizumab. The case was culture-positive for Staphylococcus epidermidis. Final visual acuity was 20/40 after pars plana vitrectomy surgery.Conclusions: In this series, the incidence of culture-positive endophthalmitis after intravitreal injection of vascular agents in an outpatient setting was very low. We believe that following a standardized injection protocol, adherence to sterile techniques and proper patient follow-up are determining factors for low incidence rates.Keywords: endophthalmitis, intravitreal injections, vascular targeting agents 

  19. Power law incidence rate in epidemic models. Comment on: "Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review" by Gerardo Chowell et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Linda J. S.

    2016-09-01

    Dr. Chowell and colleagues emphasize the importance of considering a variety of modeling approaches to characterize the growth of an epidemic during the early stages [1]. A fit of data from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic and the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak to models indicates sub-exponential growth, in contrast to the classic, homogeneous-mixing SIR model with exponential growth. With incidence rate βSI / N and S approximately equal to the total population size N, the number of new infections in an SIR epidemic model grows exponentially as in the differential equation,

  20. Association of Increased Urinary Albumin With Risk of Incident Clinical Fracture and Rate of Hip Bone Loss: the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Howard A; Vo, Tien N; Langsetmo, Lisa; Barzilay, Joshua I; Cauley, Jane A; Schousboe, John T; Orwoll, Eric S; Canales, Muna T; Ishani, Areef; Lane, Nancy E; Ensrud, Kristine E

    2017-05-01

    Prior studies suggest that increased urine albumin is associated with a heightened fracture risk in women, but results in men are unclear. We used data from Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS), a prospective cohort study of community-dwelling men aged ≥65 years, to evaluate the association of increased urine albumin with subsequent fractures and annualized rate of hip bone loss. We calculated albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) from urine collected at the 2003-2005 visit. Subsequent clinical fractures were ascertained from triannual questionnaires and centrally adjudicated by review of radiographic reports. Total hip BMD was measured by DXA at the 2003-2005 visit and again an average of 3.5 years later. We estimated risk of incident clinical fracture using Cox proportional hazards models, and annualized BMD change using ANCOVA. Of 2982 men with calculable ACR, 9.4% had ACR ≥30 mg/g (albuminuria) and 1.0% had ACR ≥300 mg/g (macroalbuminuria). During a mean of 8.7 years of follow-up, 20.0% of men had an incident clinical fracture. In multivariate-adjusted models, neither higher ACR quintile (p for trend 0.75) nor albuminuria (HR versus no albuminuria, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.65 to 1.20) was associated with increased risk of incident clinical fracture. Increased urine albumin had a borderline significant, multivariate-adjusted, positive association with rate of total hip bone loss when modeled in ACR quintiles (p = 0.06), but not when modeled as albuminuria versus no albuminuria. Macroalbuminuria was associated with a higher rate of annualized hip bone loss compared to no albuminuria (-1.8% more annualized loss than in men with ACR fracture associations. In these community-dwelling older men, we found no association between urine albumin levels and risk of incident clinical fracture, but found a borderline significant, positive association with rate of hip bone loss. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2016 American Society for Bone and

  1. 农村社区成人糖尿病发病及空腹血糖水平异常情况研究%Incidence Rate of Diabetes and Impaired Fast Glucose in Chinese Rural Adults: A Cohort Study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王法弟; 付朝伟; 陈跃; 王学才; 宋建根; 董晓莲; 朱建福; 卫国荣; 姜庆五

    2011-01-01

    目的 了解当前农村社区成人居民糖尿病发病与空腹血糖水平异常情况及其关系.方法 采用流行病学队列研究设计,随访1908名参加基线调查的18~64周岁的农村社区居民.结果 德清县农村社区居民糖尿病2年累积发病率为2.20%,使用2000年全国人口进行年龄和性别标化后的标化率为1.10%,在不同年龄组中发病率不同,且随着年龄明显上升;空腹血糖受损的2年累积发病率为4.67%(标化率为3.60%).本次共随访3374.5人年,德清县农村社区18~64周岁成人糖尿病发病率为9.8/千人年.进一步分析表明,在调整了基线年龄、性别、文化程度、职业、BMI、吸烟、饮酒、规律体育锻炼和高血压之后,与基线空腹血糖<5.6mmol/L的队列成员相比,IFG明显增加了糖尿病发病风险;空腹血糖5.6~6.0mmol/L的人发生糖尿病风险增加了近7倍;基线空腹血糖每增加1 mmol/L,糖尿病发病风险增加近8倍.结论 农村社区成人糖尿病和空腹血糖受损(IFG)发病处于较高水平,空腹血糖高,特别是IFG明显增加了糖尿病发病风险,而采用5.6mmol/L的诊断标准来判断是否空腹高血糖可能更有利于农村社区糖尿病防治,应加强对高空腹血糖人群的社区干预.%Objective To determine the incidence rate of both diabetes and impaired fast glucose ( IFG), and to further explore their associations among Chinese rural adults. Method A cohort study was carried out in Deqing County, Zhejiang Province, China. A total number of 1908 subjects aged between 18 to 64 years participated in the baseline survey and were subsequently followed up for approximately two years. Result The two - year cumulative incidence (CI) of diabetes was 2. 20% ( 1.10% when sex and age were standardized); the two - year CI of IFG among the subjects with fast glucose less than 5.6mmol/L at baseline was 4.67% ( the standardized incidence was 3.60% ), and the incidence rate (IR) of

  2. Trends in primary total hip arthroplasty in Spain from 2001 to 2008: Evaluating changes in demographics, comorbidity, incidence rates, length of stay, costs and mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jimenez-Trujillo Isabel

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hip arthroplasties is one of the most frequent surgical procedures in Spain and are conducted mainly in elderly subjects. We aim to analyze changes in incidence, co-morbidity profile, length of hospital stay (LOHS, costs and in-hospital mortality (IHM of patients undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA over an 8-year study period in Spain. Methods We selected all surgical admissions in individuals aged ≥40 years who had received a primary THA (ICD-9-CM procedure code 81.51 between 2001 and 2008 from the National Hospital Discharge Database. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates, LOHS, costs and IHM were estimated for each year. Co-morbidity was assessed using the Charlson comorbidity index. Multivariate analysis of time trends was conducted using Poisson regression. Logistic regression models were conducted to analyze IHM. Results We identified a total of 161,791 discharges of patients having undergone THA from 2001 to 2008. Overall crude incidence had increased from 99 to 105 THA per 100.000 inhabitants from 2001 to 2008 (p 2 and in 2008, the prevalence of 1-2 or >2 had increased to 20.4% and 1.1% respectively (p Conclusions The current study provides clear and valid data indicating increased incidence of primary THA in Spain from 2001 to 2008 with concomitant reductions in LOHS, slight reduction IHM, but a significant increase in cost per patient. The health profile of the patient undergoing a THA seems to be worsening in Spain.

  3. Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Olazarán

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD, with control of vascular factors (VFs. Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (nD, past depression (pD, present depression (prD, and present and past depression (prpD. Logistic regression was used. Results. Data of 1,807 subjects were investigated at baseline (mean age 74.3, 59.3% women, and 1,376 (81.6% subjects were evaluated after three years. The prevalence of dementia at baseline was 6.7%, and dementia incidence was 6.3%. An effect of depression was observed on dementia prevalence (OR [CI 95%] 1.84 [1.01–3.35] for prD and 2.73 [1.08–6.87] for prpD, and on dementia due to AD (OR 1.98 [0.98–3.99] for prD and OR 3.98 [1.48–10.71] for prpD (fully adjusted models, nD as reference. Depression did not influence dementia incidence. Conclusions. Present depression and, particularly, present and past depression are associated with dementia at old age. Multiple mechanisms, including toxic effect of depression on hippocampal neurons, plausibly explain these associations.

  4. Report of Incidence and Mortality in China Cancer Registries, 2008

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wan-qing Chen; Rong-shou Zheng; Si-wei Zhang; Ni Li; Ping Zhao; Guang-lin Li; Liang-you Wu; Jie He

    2012-01-01

    Objective:Annual cancer incidence and mortality in 2008 were provided by National Central Cancer Registry in China,which data were collected from population-based cancer registries in 2011.Methods:There were 56 registries submitted their data in 2008.After checking and evaluating the data quality,total 41 registries' data were accepted and pooled for analysis.Incidence and mortality rates by area (urban or rural areas) were assessed,as well as the age-and sex-specific rates,age-standardized rates,proportions and cumulative rate.Results:The coverage population of the 41 registries was 66,138,784 with 52,158,495 in urban areas and 13,980,289 in rural areas.There were 197,833 new cancer cases and 122,136 deaths in cancer with mortality to incidence ratio of 0.62.The morphological verified rate was 69.33%,and 2.23% of cases were identified by death certificate only.The crude cancer incidence rate in all areas was 299.12/100,000 (330.16/100,000 in male and 267.56/100,000 in female) and the age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population (ASIRC) and world standard population (ASIRW) were 148.75/100,000 and 194.99/100,000,respectively.The cumulative incidence rate (0-74 years old) was of 22.27%.The crude incidence rate in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas.However,after adjusted by age,the incidence rate in urban was lower than that in rural.The crude cancer mortality was 184.67/100,000 (228.14/100,000 in male and 140.48/100,000 in female),and the age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population (ASMRC) and by world population were 84.36/100,000 and 114.32/100,000,respectively.The cumulative mortality rate (0-74 years old) was of 12.89%.Age-adjusted mortality rates in urban areas were lower than that in rural areas.The most common cancer sites were lung,stomach,colon-rectum,liver,esophagus,pancreas,brain,lymphoma,breast and cervix which accounted for 75% of all cancer incidence.Lung cancer was the leading cause of

  5. Incidence densities in a competing events analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grambauer, Nadine; Schumacher, Martin; Dettenkofer, Markus; Beyersmann, Jan

    2010-11-01

    Epidemiologists often study the incidence density (ID; also known as incidence rate), which is the number of observed events divided by population-time at risk. Its computational simplicity makes it attractive in applications, but a common concern is that the ID is misleading if the underlying hazard is not constant in time. Another difficulty arises if competing events are present, which seems to have attracted less attention in the literature. However, there are situations in which the presence of competing events obscures the analysis more than nonconstant hazards do. The authors illustrate such a situation using data on infectious complications in patients receiving stem cell transplants, showing that a certain transplant type reduces the infection ID but eventually increases the cumulative infection probability because of its effect on the competing event. The authors investigate the extent to which IDs allow for a reasonable analysis of competing events. They suggest a simple multistate-type graphic based on IDs, which immediately displays the competing event situation. The authors also suggest a more formal summary analysis in terms of a best approximating effect on the cumulative event probability, considering another data example of US women infected with human immunodeficiency virus. Competing events and even more complex event patterns may be adequately addressed with the suggested methodology.

  6. Incidence rate and pattern of clinically relevant potential drug-drug interactions in a large outpatient population of a developing country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ehsan Nabovati

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine incidence rate, type, and pattern of clinically relevant potential drug-drug interactions (pDDIs in a large outpatient population of a developing country. A retrospective, descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on outpatients’ prescriptions in Khorasan Razavi province, Iran, over 12 months. A list of 25 clinically relevant DDIs, which are likely to occur in the outpatient setting, was used as the reference. Most frequent clinically relevant pDDIs, most common drugs contributing to the pDDIs, and the pattern of pDDIs for each medical specialty were determined. Descriptive statistics were used to report the results. In total, out of 8,169,142 prescriptions, 6,096 clinically relevant pDDIs were identified. The most common identified pDDIs were theophyllines-quinolones, warfarin-nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, benzodiazepines-azole antifungal agents, and anticoagulants-thyroid hormones. The most common drugs contributing to the identified pDDIs were ciprofloxacin, theophylline, warfarin, aminophylline, alprazolam, levothyroxine, and selegiline. While the incidence rate of clinically relevant pDDIs in prescriptions of general practitioners, internists, and cardiologists was the highest, the average pDDI incidence per 10,000 prescriptions of pulmonologists, infectious disease specialists, and cardiologists was highest. Although a small proportion of the analyzed prescriptions contained drug pairs with potential for clinically relevant DDIs, a significant number of outpatients have been exposed to the adverse effects associated with these interactions. It is recommended that in addition to training physicians and pharmacists, other effective interventions such as computerized alerting systems and electronic prescribing systems be designed and implemented.

  7. Abundance, biting behaviour and parous rate of anopheline mosquito species in relation to malaria incidence in gold-mining areas of southern Venezuela.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, J E; Rubio-Palis, Y; Páez, E; Pérez, E; Sánchez, V

    2007-12-01

    A longitudinal entomological and epidemiological study was conducted in five localities of southern Venezuela between January 1999 and April 2000 to determine the abundance, biting behaviour and parity of anopheline mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in relation to climate variables and malaria incidence. A total of 3685 female anopheline mosquitoes, representing six species, were collected. The most abundant species were Anopheles marajoara Galvão & Damasceno (60.7%) and Anopheles darlingi Root (35.1%), which together represented 95.8% of the total anophelines collected. Abundance and species distribution varied by locality. Malaria prevalence varied from 12.5 to 21.4 cases per 1000 population. Transmission occurred throughout the year; the annual parasite index (API) for the study period was 813.0 cases per 1000 population, with a range of 71.6-2492 per 1000 population, depending on locality. Plasmodium vivax (Grassi & Feletti) (Coccidia: Plasmodiidae) accounted for 78.6% of cases, Plasmodium falciparum (Welch) for 21.4% and mixed infections (Pv+Pf) for 0.05) between mosquito abundance and rainfall. Correlations between malaria incidence by parasite species and mosquito abundance were not significant (P > 0.05). Monthly parous rates were similar for An. marajoara and An. darlingi throughout the year, with two peaks that coincided with the dry-rainy transition period and the period of less rain. Peaks in the incidence of malaria cases were observed 1 month after major peaks in biting rates of parous anophelines. Anopheles darlingi engages in biting activity throughout the night, with two minor peaks at 23.00-00.00 hours and 03.00-04.00 hours. Anopheles marajoara has a different pattern, with a biting peak at 19.00-21.00 hours and 76.6% of biting occurring before midnight. Although both vectors bite indoors and outdoors, they showed a highly significant (P Venezuela and to provide relevant information to be considered when planning and implementing vector control

  8. Impact of anatomical variations of the circle of Willis on the incidence of aneurysms and their recurrence rate following endovascular treatment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Songsaeng, D. [Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada); Department of Radiology, Siriraj Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok (Thailand); Geibprasert, S.; Willinsky, R. [Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada); Tymianski, M. [Department of Neurosurgery, Toronto Western Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada); TerBrugge, K.G. [Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada); Krings, T., E-mail: timo.krings@uhn.on.c [Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Medical Imaging, University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada)

    2010-11-15

    Aim: To analyse the impact of anatomical variations of the parent arteries on the incidence and recurrence rate following coil embolization of aneurysms of the anterior (AcoA), posterior communicating artery (PcoA) and basilar artery (BA) tip. Methods: Two hundred and two (96 AcoA, 67 PcoA, and 29 BA) aneurysms in 200 patients were treated with coil embolization between January 2000 and April 2008. Parent artery variations at each location were classified as: AcoA: A1 aplasia versus hypoplasia versus symmetrical size; PcoA: foetal origin versus medium versus small size, BA: cranial versus caudal versus asymmetrical fusion. The incidence of aneurysms and difference between recurrence rates for each group were recorded on follow-up. Results: AcoA, PcoA, and BA aneurysms were more often associated with embryonically earlier vessel wall dispositions (A1 aplasia, foetal PcoA, asymmetrical fusion). Two of these variations were also associated with aneurysm recurrence following coil embolization: asymmetrical A1 segment (p = 0.01), and asymmetrical BA tip (p = 0.02). Conclusions: AcoA, PcoA, and BA tip aneurysms tend to occur more often in anatomically variant parent artery dispositions, some of which are related to aneurysm recurrence following coil embolization. This may relate to a more fragile vessel disposition as it is not fully matured or to altered haemodynamics secondary to the anatomical variations.

  9. Increased Incidence Rate of Trauma- and Stressor-Related Disorders in Denmark After the September 11, 2001, Terrorist Attacks in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Bertel T; Østergaard, Søren D; Sønderskov, Kim M; Dinesen, Peter T

    2016-10-01

    The terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001 (hereafter referred to as 9/11) in the United States had a profound impact on the physical and mental health of Americans, but the effects beyond the United States are largely unknown. To understand the wider aftermath, we examined the consequences of the 9/11 attacks on mental disorders in the Kingdom of Denmark. Utilizing population data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register from 1995 to 2012, we used a time-series intervention approach to estimate the change in the incidence rate of mental disorders after the 9/11 attacks. Based on analyses of 1,448,250 contacts with psychiatric services, we found that the attacks were followed by an immediate 16% increase in the incidence rate of trauma- and stressor-related disorders. This surge dissipated approximately a year after 9/11. In contrast, no similar increases were found for other disorders. This is consistent with the prominent role of external stressors in the etiology of trauma- and stressor-related disorders. The results indicate that the effects of 9/11 on mental disorders extended across the Atlantic Ocean to Denmark. Thus, the impact of terrorist attacks on mental health is likely not limited to inhabitants of the country under attack; it also extends to people far away and without immediate relation to it.

  10. Influence of anatomical subsite on the incidence of microsatellite instability, and KRAS and BRAF mutation rates in patients with colon carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedix, Frank; Meyer, Frank; Kube, Rainer; Kropf, Siegfried; Kuester, Doerthe; Lippert, Hans; Roessner, Albert; Krüger, Sabine

    2012-10-15

    There is a growing amount of data supporting the concept that cancers originating from the proximal and distal colon are distinct clinicopathological entities. The incidence of MSI and BRAF mutation is strongly associated with right sided tumor location, whereas there are conflicting results for KRAS mutation rates. However, to date, no data exist whether and to what extent defined colonic subsites influence MSI status, KRAS and BRAF mutation rates. We selected primary colon cancer from 171 patients operated on at our institution between 2007 and 2010. BRAF, KRAS mutation rates and microsatellite instability were determined and correlated with clinicopathological features and tumor location. MSI-h cancers were significantly associated with poor histological grade but a lower rate of distant metastases. KRAS-mutated tumors were linked to lower T-stage and better differentiation. Colon carcinomas with BRAF mutation were significantly associated with distant metastatic spread and poor histological grade. Furthermore, we found that MSI-h status, KRAS and BRAF mutation rates varied remarkably among the colonic subsites irrespective of right- and left-sided origin, respectively. The results of the current study provide further evidence that a simple classification into right- and left-sided colon carcinoma does not represent the complexity of this tumor entity.

  11. Association between diastolic blood pressure and cumulative work time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Cordeiro

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Diastolic blood pressure was viewed as a generic indicator of aging, and its association with cumulative work time was studied after controlling for age as a potential confounding factor. The study was conducted among production line workers at a Brazilian tannery in July 1993. The association between diastolic blood pressure and cumulative work time was verified by fitting a second-order linear regression model, where diastolic blood pressure was a function of worker's age and cumulative work time. By fitting the model, one can predict that, in the beginning of working life at the tannery, on average each 1-year period is associated with an increase of about 1.5 mmHg in diastolic blood pressure. The fit obtained highlights one component directly associated with work as part of the rate of pressure increase in the study group. This component is twice as high as that directly associated with age.

  12. Cumulant dynamics in a finite population linkage equilibrium theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rattray, M; Rattray, Magnus; Shapiro, Jonathan L.

    1999-01-01

    The evolution of a finite population at linkage equilibrium is described in terms of the dynamics of phenotype distribution cumulants. This provides a powerful method for describing evolutionary transients and we elucidate the relationship between the cumulant dynamics and the diffusion approximation. A separation of time-scales between the first and higher cumulants for low mutation rates is demonstrated in the diffusion limit and provides a significant simplification of the dynamical system. However, the diffusion limit may not be appropriate for strong selection as the standard Fisher-Wright model of genetic drift can break down in this case. Two novel examples of this effect are considered: we shown that the dynamics may depend on the number of loci under strong directional selection and that environmental variance results in a reduced effective population size. We also consider a simple model of a changing environment which cannot be described by a diffusion equation and we derive the optimal mutation ra...

  13. Cost-Effectiveness of Coal Workers' Pneumoconiosis Prevention Based on Its Predicted Incidence within the Datong Coal Mine Group in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Fuhai; Liu, Hongbo; Yuan, Juxiang; Han, Bing; Cui, Kai; Ding, Yu; Fan, Xueyun; Cao, Hong; Yao, Sanqiao; Suo, Xia; Sun, Zhiqian; Yun, Xiang; Hua, Zhengbing; Chen, Jie

    2015-01-01

    We aimed to estimate the economic losses currently caused by coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP) and, on the basis of these measurements, confirm the economic benefit of preventive measures. Our cohort study included 1,847 patients with CWP and 43,742 coal workers without CWP who were registered in the employment records of the Datong Coal Mine Group. We calculated the cumulative incidence rate of pneumoconiosis using the life-table method. We used the dose-response relationship between cumulative incidence density and cumulative dust exposure to predict the future trend in the incidence of CWP. We calculate the economic loss caused by CWP and economic effectiveness of CWP prevention by a step-wise model. The cumulative incidence rates of CWP in the tunneling, mining, combining, and helping cohorts were 58.7%, 28.1%, 21.7%, and 4.0%, respectively. The cumulative incidence rates increased gradually with increasing cumulative dust exposure (CDE). We predicted 4,300 new CWP cases, assuming the dust concentrations remained at the levels of 2011. If advanced dustproof equipment was adopted, 537 fewer people would be diagnosed with CWP. In all, losses of 1.207 billion Renminbi (RMB, official currency of China) would be prevented and 4,698.8 healthy life years would be gained. Investments in advanced dustproof equipment would be total 843 million RMB, according to our study; the ratio of investment to restored economic losses was 1:1.43. Controlling workplace dust concentrations is critical to reduce the onset of pneumoconiosis and to achieve economic benefits.

  14. Age-specific bone tumour incidence rates are governed by stem cell exhaustion influencing the supply and demand of progenitor cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Richard B

    2014-07-01

    Knudson's carcinogenic model, which simulates incidence rates for retinoblastoma, provides compelling evidence for a two-stage mutational process. However, for more complex cancers, existing multistage models are less convincing. To fill this gap, I hypothesize that neoplasms preferentially arise when stem cell exhaustion creates a short supply of progenitor cells at ages of high proliferative demand. To test this hypothesis, published datasets were employed to model the age distribution of osteochondroma, a benign lesion, and osteosarcoma, a malignant one. The supply of chondrogenic stem-like cells in femur growth plates of children and adolescents was evaluated and compared with the progenitor cell demand of longitudinal bone growth. Similarly, the supply of osteoprogenitor cells from birth to old age was compared with the demands of bone formation. Results show that progenitor cell demand-to-supply ratios are a good risk indicator, exhibiting similar trends to the unimodal and bimodal age distributions of osteochondroma and osteosarcoma, respectively. The hypothesis also helps explain Peto's paradox and the finding that taller individuals are more prone to cancers and have shorter lifespans. The hypothesis was tested, in the manner of Knudson, by its ability to convincingly explain and demonstrate, for the first time, a bone tumour's bimodal age-incidence curve. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Measles incidence rate and a phylogenetic study of contemporary genotype H1 measles strains in China: is an improved measles vaccine needed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Jingwei; Zheng, Jingtong; Huang, Honglan; Hu, Yu; Bian, Jiang; Xu, Deqi; Li, Fan

    2011-12-01

    The incidence of measles in China has increased over the last decade. To evaluate the genetic variation of measles strains, 16 measles wild-type virus strains were isolated from 14 vaccinated cases and 2 nonvaccinated cases in Jilin Province during 2005-2006, and their nucleoprotein (N) and hemagglutinin (H) genes were amplified by RT-PCR. The amplified products were sequenced and compared with the Edmonston virus and the existing vaccine strains (Changchun-47 and Shanghai-191). The results showed that the variation rate between the vaccine and wild-type strains was 9.8-12.0% in the N gene and 5.9-6.9% in the H gene, respectively. In addition, cross-neutralization assays revealed that although sera obtained from infants following primary vaccination effectively neutralized vaccine strains, the capacity in neutralizing H1 wild-type measles virus isolates was decreased fourfold. Antigenic ratios testing revealed that the antigenic relatedness between wild-type measles viruses and existing vaccine strains was notably low. These data suggest that the increased incidence of measles in Jilin Province may be attributed to the antigenic drift between wild-type and vaccine strains. Our findings strengthen the recommendation of supplemental immunization with existing vaccines and also strongly suggest a need for developing new vaccines to better control measles virus outbreaks.

  16. The incidence rate of HIV type-1 drug resistance in patients on antiretroviral therapy: a nationwide population-based Danish cohort study 1999-2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Audelin, A.M.; Lohse, N.; Obel, N.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Newer antiretroviral treatment regimens for HIV carry a lower risk of inducing drug resistance mutations. We estimated changes in incidence rates (IRs) of new mutations in HIV-infected individuals receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). METHODS: Population-based data...... were obtained from the Danish HIV Cohort Study and the Danish HIV Sequence Database. We included treatment-naive patients initiating HAART after December 1997 and computed time to first drug resistance mutation, identified as new mutations detected within 1 year after a 60-day period of treatment.......077). The IR of PI resistance decreased from 7.5 (1.4-21.8) in 1999 to 2.9 (0.7-11.4) in 2002-2003 (P=0.148). The IRs were low for specific resistance mutations, except for M184V (IR 5.6 [4.0-7.9]) and K103N (IR 8.2 [5.6-12.0]). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of acquired drug resistance has decreased among HIV...

  17. Cumulate Fragments in Silicic Ignimbrites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, O.; Ellis, B. S.; Wolff, J.

    2014-12-01

    Increasingly, studies are concluding that silicic ignimbrites are the result of the amalgamation of multiple discrete magma batches. Yet the existence of discrete batches presents a conundrum for magma generation and storage; if silicic magma batches are not generated nearly in situ in the upper crust, they must traverse, and reside within, a thermally hostile environment with large temperature gradients, resulting in low survivability in their shallow magmatic hearths. The Snake River Plain (Idaho, USA) is a type example of this 'multi-batch' assembly with ignimbrites containing multiple populations of pyroxene crystals, glass shards, and crystal aggregates. The ubiquitous crystal aggregates hint at a mechanism to facilitate the existence of multiple, relatively small batches of rhyolite in the upper crust. These aggregates contain the same plagioclase, pyroxene, and oxide mineral compositions as single phenocrysts of the same minerals in their host rocks, but they have significantly less silicic bulk compositions and lack quartz and sanidine, which occur as single phenocrysts in the deposits. This implies significant crystallization followed by melt extraction from mushy reservoir margins. The extracted melt then continues to evolve (crystallizing sanidine and quartz) while the melt-depleted margins provide an increasingly rigid and refractory network segregating the crystal-poor batches of magma. The hot, refractory, margins insulate the crystal-poor lenses, allowing (1) extended residence in the upper crust, and (2) preservation of chemical heterogeneities among batches. In contrast, systems that produce cumulates richer in low-temperature phases (quartz, K-feldspars, and/or biotite) favour remelting upon recharge, leading to less segregation of eruptible melt pockets and the formation of gradationally zoned ignimbrites. The occurrence of similar crystal aggregates from a variety of magmatic lineages suggests the generality of this process.

  18. Meta-analysis on the incidence rates of child sexual abuse in China%中国儿童期性虐待发生率的Meta分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    彭淋; 张思恒; 杨剑; 李洋; 叶云凤; 董晓梅; 王声湧

    2013-01-01

    Objective To offer basic data related to the prevention of child sexual abuse,we conducted a Meta-analysis on the national incidence rate on child sexual abuse in the country.Methods Publications between 2000 and 2013 were extracted from PubMed,Springer Link,Elsevier-SDOL,Chinese Biomedical Database (CBM),China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI),Chinese Science & Technology journal database (VIP),Wanfang Databases,China master's Theses Full-text Database and China Conference Papers Full-text Database.Observational studies which containing the incidence rate of child sexual abuse were included.We used the Loney criteria to evaluate the quality of searched publications.The Meta incidence rate was estimated using the Stata software.Subgroup analysis were undertaken on gender issues.Sensitivity analysis were performed to evaluate the impact of types or qualities to the research objects.Results Fifteen papers were included in this Meta-analysis,with a sample size of 16 682.The combined incidence rate of child sexual abuse was 18.20% (95%CI:13.74%-22.66%).For injured persons,girls had a higher incidence rate on child sexual abuse (11.22%) than boys (8.25%) in terms of contact sexual abuse,but no significant difference on gender was found in the prevalence rates of global and un-contact sexual abuse.Data from sensitivity analysis revealed that the quality or types of the objects slightly affected the incidence rate of traffic injuries.Conclusion Results of this study indicated that child sexual abuse was common and serious in China,suggesting that prevention and control programs on childhood abuse should be emphasized and promoted.%目的 采用Meta分析方法综合评价近10年来中国儿童期性虐待的发生情况,为预防提供基础资料.方法 系统检索PubMed、Springer Link、Elsevier-SDOL、中国生物医学文献数据库(CBM)、中国期刊全文数据库(CNKI)、维普中文科技期刊全文数据库、万方数据资源系统、

  19. Comparative effect of partial root-zone drying and deficit irrigation on incidence of blossom-end rot in tomato under varied calcium rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, Yanqi; Feng, Hao; Liu, Fulai

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the comparative effects of reduced irrigation regimes—partial root-zone drying (PRD) and conventional deficit irrigation (DI)—on the incidence of blossom-end rot (BER) in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) under three Ca-fertilization rates: 0, 100, and 200mg Ca kg–1 soil...... xylem sap abscisic acid concentration, lower stomatal conductance, and higher plant water status in the PRD in relation to the DI plants might have contributed to the increased fruit Ca uptake, and could have reduced BER development in tomato fruits. Therefore, under conditions with limited freshwater...... resources, application of PRD irrigation could be a promising approach for saving water and for preventing BER development in tomatoes....

  20. Monitoring of nosocomial invasive aspergillosis and early evidence of an outbreak using cumulative sum tests (CUSUM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menotti, J; Porcher, R; Ribaud, P; Lacroix, C; Jolivet, V; Hamane, S; Derouin, F

    2010-09-01

    In order to provide a statistically based evaluation of the incidence of invasive aspergillosis (IA) over time, we applied the cumulative sums (CUSUM) methodology, which was developed for quality control and has already been applied for the surveillance of hospital-acquired infections. Cases of IA were recorded during a 5-year period. Incidence rates of cases assumed to be hospital-acquired, i.e. nosocomial IA (NIA), were analysed using CUSUM tests. Relationships between NIA, fungal contamination and construction or renovation work were tested using time-series methods. Between January 2002 and December 2006, 81 cases of NIA were recorded. CUSUM analysis of NIA incidence showed no significant deviation from the expected monthly number of cases until August 2005, and then the CUSUM crossed the decision limit, i.e. identified a significant increase in NIA as compared with the reference period (January 2002 to December 2004). Up to April 2006, the learning-curve CUSUM stayed over its limit, supporting an ongoing outbreak involving 24 patients, and then it significantly decreased in May 2006. Follow-up after May 2006 indicated no out-of-control situation, supporting a return to the baseline situation. In haematology wards, significant links were found between NIA incidence and fungal contamination of several sites at each ward (mainly unprotected common sites). An environmental source of contamination could be suspected, but no significant relationship was found between NIA incidence and ongoing construction or renovation. In conclusion, the CUSUM test proved to be well suited for real-time monitoring of NIA and for early identification and follow-up of an outbreak.

  1. SOME POSSIBLE ULTRAVIOLET EFFECTS ON THE INCIDENCE OF SKIN CANCER AMONG JAPANESE DUE TO MODIFICATION OF THE OZONE LAYER

    OpenAIRE

    タキザワ, ユキオ; YUKIO, TAKIZAWA

    1987-01-01

    An epidemiological analysis was conducted in order to examine possible ultraviolet effects on the incidence of skin cancer among Japanese. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AMRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) from 1971 to 1977,ratios of cumulative mortality rates (CMRs) from 1950 to 1960 and from 1960 to 1970,and the number of patients from 1975 to 1980 were obtained for skin cancer and malignant melanoma from vital statistics of Japan. The results indicated that the AMRs of skin cance...

  2. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact...

  3. Incidence of register-based diabetes 10 years after a stepwise diabetes screening programme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, S. S.; Johansen, Nanna; Witte, D. R.

    2016-01-01

    criteria. Seven incremental levels of diabetes risk were defined and followed for incident diabetes recorded in the Danish National Diabetes Register until December 2012. For each group, cumulative diabetes incidence was calculated. Incidence rates and rate ratios were estimated by Poisson regression...... glucose value, respectively. For each step in the screening algorithm, the risk of developing diabetes was higher than in the previous step. Conclusions/interpretation: The risk of developing clinical diabetes in people who screen negative for diabetes depends on the level of risk stratification......Aims/hypothesis: Screening programmes for type 2 diabetes inevitably find more people at high risk of developing diabetes than people with undiagnosed prevalent diabetes. We describe the incidence of diabetes for risk groups according to advancement in a screening process. Methods: In 2001...

  4. Subcutaneous bortezomib in multiple myeloma patients induces similar therapeutic response rates as intravenous application but it does not reduce the incidence of peripheral neuropathy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiri Minarik

    Full Text Available Subcutaneous (SC application of bortezomib has been recently introduced as a new application route in multiple myeloma (MM patients. We performed an analysis to compare the outcomes of bortezomib-based therapy in multiple myeloma (MM patients treated using either intravenous (IV or subcutaneous (SC route of administration.During January 2012 through December 2013, we performed a retrospective analysis of 446 patients with MM treated with bortezomib-based regimens (either once weekly - 63% or twice weekly - 27% in both, the first line setting, and in relapse, with separate analysis of patients undergoing autologous stem cell transplantation. We assessed the response rates and toxicity profiles in both, IV and SC route of bortezomib administration.The response rates in both IV and SC arm were similar with overall response rate 71.7% vs 70.7%, complete remissions in 13.9% vs 8.6%, very good partial remissions in 30.8% vs 34.5% and partial remissions in 27% vs 27.6%. The most frequent grade ≥ 3 toxicities were anemia, thrombocytopenia and neutropenia, with no significant differences between IV and SC group. There were no significant differences in the rate of peripheral neuropathy (PN. PN of any grade was present in 48% in the IV arm and in 41% in the SC arm. PN grade ≥ 2 was present in 20% vs 18% and PN grade ≥ 3 was present in 6% vs 4%.We conclude that subcutaneous application of bortezomib has similar therapeutic outcomes and toxicity profile as intravenous route of application. In our cohort there was no difference in the incidence of PN, suggesting that PN is dose dependent and might be reduced by lower intensity schemes rather than by the route of administration.

  5. The incidence rate of female breast cancer in Saudi Arabia: an observational descriptive epidemiological analysis of data from Saudi Cancer Registry 2001–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alghamdi IG

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Ibrahim G Alghamdi,1 Issam I Hussain,1 Mohamed S Alghamdi,2 Mohamed A El-Sheemy1,3 1University of Lincoln, Brayford Pool, Lincoln, United Kingdom; 2Ministry of Health, General Directorate of Health Affairs Al-Baha, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 3Lincoln Hospital, Research and Development, United Lincolnshire Hospitals, National Health Service Trust, Lincoln, United Kingdom Background: This study presents descriptive epidemiological data related to breast cancer cases diagnosed from 2001 to 2008 among Saudi women, including the frequency and percentage of cases, the crude incidence rate (CIR, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR, adjusted by the region and year of diagnosis. Methods: This is a retrospective descriptive epidemiological study of all Saudi female breast cancer cases from 2001 to 2008. The statistical analyses were conducted using descriptive statistics, a linear regression model, and analysis of variance with the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 20 (IBM Corporation, Armonk, NY, USA. Results: A total of 6,922 female breast cancer cases were recorded in the Saudi Cancer Registry from 2001 to 2008. The highest overall percentages (38.6% and 31.2% of female breast cancer cases were documented in women who were 30–44 and 45–59 years of age, respectively. The eastern region of Saudi Arabia had the highest overall ASIR, at 26.6 per 100,000 women, followed by Riyadh at 20.5 and Makkah at 19.4. Jazan, Baha, and Asir had the lowest average ASIRs, at 4.8, 6.1, and 7.3 per 100,000 women, respectively. The region of Jouf (24.2%; CIR 11.2, ASIR 17.2 had the highest changes in CIR and ASIR from 2001 to 2008. While Qassim, Jazan and Tabuk recorded down-trending rates with negative values. Conclusion: There was a significant increase in the CIRs and ASIRs for female breast cancer between 2001 and 2008. The majority of breast cancer cases occurred among younger women. The region of Jouf had the greatest significant

  6. A Systematic Review of the Incidence, Risk Factors and Case Fatality Rates of Invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) Disease in Africa (1966 to 2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uche, Ifeanyi Valentine; MacLennan, Calman A.

    2017-01-01

    This study systematically reviews the literature on the occurrence, incidence and case fatality rate (CFR) of invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease in Africa from 1966 to 2014. Data on the burden of iNTS disease in Africa are sparse and generally have not been aggregated, making it difficult to describe the epidemiology that is needed to inform the development and implementation of effective prevention and control policies. This study involved a comprehensive search of PubMed and Embase databases. It documents the geographical spread of iNTS disease over time in Africa, and describes its reported incidence, risk factors and CFR. We found that Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) have been reported as a cause of bacteraemia in 33 out of 54 African countries, spanning the five geographical regions of Africa, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa since 1966. Our review indicates that NTS have been responsible for up to 39% of community acquired blood stream infections in sub-Saharan Africa with an average CFR of 19%. Salmonella Typhimurium and Enteritidis are the major serovars implicated and together have been responsible for 91%% of the cases of iNTS disease, (where serotype was determined), reported in Africa. The study confirms that iNTS disease is more prevalent amongst Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-infected individuals, infants, and young children with malaria, anaemia and malnutrition. In conclusion, iNTS disease is a substantial cause of community-acquired bacteraemia in Africa. Given the high morbidity and mortality of iNTS disease in Africa, it is important to develop effective prevention and control strategies including vaccination. PMID:28056035

  7. Nonlinear cumulative damage model for multiaxial fatigue

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHANG De-guang; SUN Guo-qin; DENG Jing; YAN Chu-liang

    2006-01-01

    On the basis of the continuum fatigue damage theory,a nonlinear uniaxial fatigue cumulative damage model is first proposed.In order to describe multiaxial fatigue damage characteristics,a nonlinear multiaxial fatigue cumulative damage model is developed based on the critical plane approach,The proposed model can consider the multiaxial fatigue limit,mean hydrostatic pressure and the unseparated characteristic for the damage variables and loading parameters.The recurrence formula of fatigue damage model was derived under multilevel loading,which is used to predict multiaxial fatigue life.The results showed that the proposed nonlinear multiaxial fatigue cumulative damage model is better than Miner's rule.

  8. Incidence of high blood pressure in a group of tannery workers in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Cordeiro

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to measure the incidence of high blood pressure (HBP in a medium-size tannery in Botucatu, São Paulo State, southeast Brazil. A previous study at this tannery showed a high prevalence of arterial hypertension. A positive correlation was found between cumulated work time and arterial pressure. We followed a cohort of workers for seven years. At the end of this period, HBP incidence rate was calculated as 0.0964.year-1. This was considered high compared to other occupational groups.

  9. Baseline incidence and severity of renal insufficiency evaluated by estimated glomerular filtration rates in patients scheduled for contrast-enhanced CT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Utsunomiya, Daisuke; Yanaga, Yumi; Oda, Seitaro; Namimoto, Tomohiro; Yamashita, Yasuyuki (Dept. of Diagnostic Radiology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Kumamoto Univ., Kumamoto (Japan)), email: utsunomi@kumamoto-u.ac.jp; Awai, Kazuo (Dept. of Diagnostic Radiology, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima Univ., Hiroshima (Japan)); Funama, Yoshinori (Dept. of Medical Physics, Faculty of Life Sciences, Kumamoto Univ., Kumamoto (Japan))

    2011-06-15

    Background Although pre-existing renal insufficiency (RI) is the most important risk factor for contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN), the background distribution of baseline renal function has not been investigated thoroughly in patients scheduled for contrast-enhanced CT. Purpose To investigate the incidence and severity of baseline RI evaluated by estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) in patients who underwent contrast-enhanced CT at an academic center. Material and Methods A total of 6586 patients (3630 men and 2956 women; mean age 57.0 +- 11.9 years) who underwent contrast-enhanced CT between January and December 2008 were retrospectively studied. Of these, 829 had cardiovascular diseases (CVD), 5116 had oncologic diseases, 178 had diabetes mellitus (DM), and 1572 had chronic liver disease (CLD). The eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2) was calculated from their serum creatinine level. Mild, moderate-a, moderate-b, and severe RI were recorded at 60 < =eGFR < 90, 45 < =eGFR < 60, 30 < =eGFR < 45 and eGFR < 30, respectively. Results Of the 6586 patients, 1.6%, 3.7%, 13.7%, and 54.2% were judged to present with severe, moderate-b, moderate-a, and mild RI, respectively. While moderate-b-to-severe RI was recorded in 133 (3.2%) of 4161 patients aged 70 years or less, it was observed in 218 (9.0%) of the 2425 patients who were 71 years or older. Among the 829 CVD patients, 9.9% manifested moderate-b-to-severe- and 73.0% mild-to-moderate-a RI. The corresponding rates were 4.4% and 68.9% for oncologic disease, 16.9% and 61.2% for DM, and 4.8% and 71.5% for CLD patients. By univariate analysis, there was a significant association between moderate-b-to-severe RI and the advanced age, CVD, DM, and non-oncologic disease. Multivariate analysis showed that the advanced age, DM, and non-oncologic disease were statistically associated with moderate-b-to-severe RI. Conclusion The incidence of RI of eGFR < 45mL/min/1.73 m2 at baseline was high in patients with advanced age, CVD and DM and

  10. The three-year incidence of fracture in chronic kidney disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, Kyla L; McArthur, Eric; Leslie, William D; Fraser, Lisa-Ann; Jamal, Sophie A; Cadarette, Suzanne M; Pouget, Jennie G; Lok, Charmaine E; Hodsman, Anthony B; Adachi, Jonathan D; Garg, Amit X

    2014-10-01

    Knowing a person's fracture risk according to their kidney function, gender, and age may influence clinical management and decision-making. Using healthcare databases from Ontario, Canada, we conducted a cohort study of 679,114 adults of 40 years and over (mean age 62 years) stratified at cohort entry by estimated glomerular filtration rate ((eGFR) 60 and over, 45-59, 30-44, 15-29, and under 15 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)), gender, and age (40-65 and over 65 years). The primary outcome was the 3-year cumulative incidence of fracture (proportion of adults who fractured (hip, forearm, pelvis, or proximal humerus) at least once within 3-years of follow-up). Additional analyses examined the fracture incidence per 1000 person-years, hip fracture alone, stratification by prior fracture, stratification by eGFR and proteinuria, and 3-year cumulative incidence of falls with hospitalization. The 3-year cumulative incidence of fracture significantly increased in a graded manner in adults with a lower eGFR for both genders and both age groups. The 3-year cumulative incidence of fracture in women over 65 years of age across the 5 eGFR groups were 4.3%, 5.8%, 6.5%, 7.8%, and 9.6%, respectively. Corresponding estimates for men over 65 years were 1.6%, 2.0%, 2.7%, 3.8%, and 5.0%, respectively. Similar graded relationships were found for falls with hospitalization and additional analyses. Thus, many adults with chronic kidney disease will fall and fracture. Results can be used for prognostication and guidance of sample size requirements for fracture prevention trials.

  11. Social disorganization of neighborhoods and incidence of psychotic disorders: a 7-year first-contact incidence study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veling, W; Susser, E; Selten, J-P; Hoek, H W

    2015-07-01

    Environmental factors such as urban birth and ethnic minority position have been related to risk for psychotic disorders. There is some evidence that not only individual, but also neighborhood characteristics influence this risk. The aim of this study was to investigate social disorganization of neighborhoods and incidence of psychotic disorders. The research was a 7-year first-contact incidence study of psychotic disorders in The Hague. Neighborhood characteristics included continuous, dichotomous and cumulative measures of socio-economic level, residential mobility, ethnic diversity, proportion of single person households, voter turnout, population density and crime level. Using multilevel Poisson regression analysis, incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of psychotic disorders were calculated for the indicators of neighborhood social disorganization. A total of 618 incident cases were identified. Neighborhood socio-economic level and residential mobility had the strongest association with incidence of psychotic disorders [individual-level adjusted Wald χ2 1 = 13.03 (p = 0.0003) and 5.51 (p = 0.02), respectively]. All but one (proportion of single person households) of the dichotomous neighborhood indicators were significantly associated with a higher IRR. The cumulative degree of neighborhood social disorganization was strongly and linearly associated with the incidence of psychotic disorders (trend test, Wald χ2 5 = 25.76, p = 0.0001). The IRR in neighborhoods with the highest degree of social disorganization was 1.95 (95% CI 1.38-2.75) compared with the lowest disorganization category. The findings suggest that the risk for developing a psychotic disorder is higher for people living in socially disorganized environments. Longitudinal studies are needed to investigate causality.

  12. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legare, Cristine H

    2017-07-24

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children's learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission-the cornerstone of human cultural diversity.

  13. Incidence and mortality rates in breast, corpus uteri, and ovarian cancers in Poland (1980–2013: an analysis of population-based data in relation to socio-economic changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banas T

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Tomasz Banas,1 Grzegorz Juszczyk,2 Kazimierz Pitynski,1 Dorota Nieweglowska,1 Artur Ludwin,1 Aleksandra Czerw2 1Department of Gynecology and Oncology, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, 2Faculty of Health Science, Medical University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland Objectives: This study aimed to analyze incidence and mortality trends in breast cancer (BC, corpus uteri cancer (CUC, and ovarian cancer (OC in Poland in the context of sociodemographic changes.Materials and methods: Incidence and mortality data (1980–2013 were retrieved from the Polish National Cancer Registry, while socioeconomic data (1960–2013 were obtained from the World Bank. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization, and join-point regression was performed to describe trends using the average annual percentage change (AAPC.Results: A significant decrease in birth and fertility rates and a large increase in gross domestic product were observed together with a decrease in the total mortality rate among women, as well as an increase in life expectancy for women. A large, significant increase in BC incidence was observed (AAPC1980–1990 2.14, AAPC1990–1996 4.71, AAPC1996–2013 2.21, with a small but significant decrease in mortality after a slight increase (AAPC1980–1994 0.52, AAPC1994–2013 −0.66. During the period 1980–2013, a significant increase in CUC incidence (AAPC1980–1994 3.7, AAPC1994–2013 1.93 was observed, with an initial mortality-rate reduction followed by a significant increase (AAPC1980–2006 −1.12, AAPC2006–2013 3.74. After the initial increase of both OC incidence and mortality from 1994, the incidence rate decreased significantly (AAPC1980–1994 2.98, AAPC1994–2013 −0.49, as did the mortality rate (AAPC1980–1994 0.52, AAPC1994–2013 −0.66.Conclusion: After 1994, a decrease in OC incidence was found, while the incidence of BC and CUC continued to increase. A reduction in

  14. Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

  15. Dutch perfusion incident survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenenberg, Ingrid; Weerwind, Patrick W; Everts, Peter A M; Maessen, Jos G

    2010-09-01

    Cardiopulmonary bypass procedures remain complex, involving many potential risks. Therefore, a nationwide retrospective study was conducted to gain insight into the number of incidents and accidents in Dutch adult perfusion practice. An anonymous postal survey (85 questions about hardware, disposables, fluids and medication, air emboli, anticoagulation, practice, and safety measures) was sent to all Dutch perfusionists involved in adult cardiovascular perfusion during 2006 and 2007. To guarantee complete anonymity, respondents were asked to return the survey to a notary who discarded personal information. The net response rate was 72% and covered 23,500 perfusions. Individual respondents performed 240 ± 103 perfusions during the 2-year study period and had 13.8 ± 8.7 years of practical experience. The incident rate was 1 per 15.6 perfusions and the adverse event rate was 1 per 1,236 perfusions. The three most reported incidents were: (1) persistent inability to raise the activated coagulation time above 400s during perfusion (184 incidents); (2) an allergic or anaphylactic reaction to drugs, fluids, or blood products (114 incidents); and (3) clotting formation in the extracorporeal circuit (74 incidents). Furthermore, pre-bypass safety measures showed no statistically significant association with the reported incidents. In comparison with data from the recent literature, the reported number of incidents is high. Nevertheless, the adverse outcome rate is well matched to other published surveys. The relatively high response rate conveys the impression that the Dutch perfusionist is vigilant and willing to report incidents. Hence, a web-based Dutch perfusion incident registration system is recommended.

  16. Report of incidence and mortality in China cancer registries, 2009

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wanqing Chen; Rongshou Zheng; Siwei Zhang; Ping Zhao; Guanglin Li; Lingyou Wu; Jie He

    2013-01-01

    The National Central Cancer Registry (NCCR) collected cancer registration data in 2009 from local cancer registries in 2012,and analyzed to describe cancer incidence and mortality in China.Methods.:On basis of the criteria of data quality from NCCR,data subrnitted from 104 registries were checked and evaluated.There were 72 registries' data qualified and accepted for cancer registry annual report in 2012.Descriptive analysis included incidence and mortality stratified by area (urban/rural),sex,age group and cancer site.The top 10 common cancers in different groups,proportion and cumulative rates were also calculated.Chinese population census in 1982 and Segi's population were used for age-standardized incidence/mortality rates.Results:All 72 cancer registries covered a total of 85,470,522 population (57,489,009 in urban and 27,981,513 in rural areas).The total new cancer incident cases and cancer deaths were 244,366 and 154,310,respectively.The morphology verified cases accounted for 67.23%,and 3.14% of incident cases only had information from death certifications.The crude incidence rate in Chinese cancer registration areas was 285.91/100,000(males 317.97/100,000,females 253.09/100,000),age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population (ASIRC) and by world standard population (ASIRW) were 146.87/100,000 and 191.72/100,000 with the cumulative incidence rate (0-74 age years old) of 22.08%.The cancer incidence and ASIRC were 303.39/100,000 and 150.31/100,000 in urban areas whereas in rural areas,they were 249.98/100,000 and 139.68/100,000,respectively.The cancer mortality in Chinese cancer regist-ation areas was 180.54/100,000 (224.20/100,000 in males and 135.85/100,000 in females),age-standardized umortality rates by Chinese standard population (ASMRC) and by world standard population (ASMRW) were 85.06/100,000 and 115.65/100,000,and the cumulative incidence rate (0-74 age years old) was 12.94%.The cancer mortality and ASMRC were 181

  17. Cumulative cultural evolution: the role of teaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Laureano; Toro, Miguel A

    2014-04-21

    In humans, cultural transmission occurs usually by cumulative inheritance, generating complex adaptive behavioral features. Cumulative culture requires key psychological processes (fundamentally imitation and teaching) that are absent or impoverished in non-human primates. In this paper we analyze the role that teaching has played in human cumulative cultural evolution. We assume that a system of cumulative culture generates increasingly adaptive behaviors, that are also more complex and difficult to imitate. Our thesis is that, as cultural traits become more complex, cumulative cultural transmission requires teaching to ensure accurate transmission from one generation to the next. In an increasingly complex cultural environment, we consider that individuals commit errors in imitation. We develop a model of cumulative cultural evolution in a changing environment and show that these errors hamper the process of cultural accumulation. We also show that a system of teaching between parents and offspring that increases the fidelity of imitation unblocks the accumulation and becomes adaptive whenever the gain in fitness compensates the cost of teaching.

  18. Human cumulative culture: a comparative perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Lewis G; Vale, Gill L; Laland, Kevin N; Flynn, Emma; Kendal, Rachel L

    2014-05-01

    Many animals exhibit social learning and behavioural traditions, but human culture exhibits unparalleled complexity and diversity, and is unambiguously cumulative in character. These similarities and differences have spawned a debate over whether animal traditions and human culture are reliant on homologous or analogous psychological processes. Human cumulative culture combines high-fidelity transmission of cultural knowledge with beneficial modifications to generate a 'ratcheting' in technological complexity, leading to the development of traits far more complex than one individual could invent alone. Claims have been made for cumulative culture in several species of animals, including chimpanzees, orangutans and New Caledonian crows, but these remain contentious. Whilst initial work on the topic of cumulative culture was largely theoretical, employing mathematical methods developed by population biologists, in recent years researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including psychology, biology, economics, biological anthropology, linguistics and archaeology, have turned their attention to the experimental investigation of cumulative culture. We review this literature, highlighting advances made in understanding the underlying processes of cumulative culture and emphasising areas of agreement and disagreement amongst investigators in separate fields.

  19. Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2017-02-01

    Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

  20. Incidence and potential risk factors of obesity among Tehranian adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseinpanah, Farhad; Mirbolouk, Mohammadhassan; Mossadeghkhah, Ali; Barzin, Maryam; Serahati, Sara; Delshad, Hossein; Azizi, Fereidoun

    2016-01-01

    Evaluating the incidence of obesity and its risk factors among Tehranian adults. In this population-based cohort, non-obese participants, aged ≥20years, were followed for development of obesity (Body Mass Index (BMI) ≥30). Incidence density and cumulative incidence rates of obesity were calculated for each sex. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine the association of potential obesity risk factors including: age, BMI, metabolic syndrome, waist circumference (WC), smoking, marital status, education, and physical activity. A total of 7257 participants (3536 men) were followed for a median of 8years. At baseline, mean age, BMI and WC were 41.3±14.6years, 25.1±2.9kg/m(2) (24.9±3kg/m(2) men and 25.2±3kg/m(2) women), and 84.8±9.8cm (87.06±9.2cm men and 82.6±9.9cm women) respectively. During the follow-up, 1345 participants (876 women) developed obesity contributing to cumulative incidences of 31.3% (CI: 29.9%-32.7%), 38.1% (CI: 36.2%-40.1%), and 23.4% (CI: 21.6%-25.3%) for the whole population, women, and men, respectively. Corresponding incidence density rates per 1000 person-year were 25.9 (CI: 24.5-27.3), 33.67 (CI: 31.5-36.0), and 18.0 (CI: 16.5-19.7), respectively. Highest incidence rates were observed during their 40s and 20s for women and men, respectively. Participants with metabolic syndrome, lower educational level, higher BMI and WC, were at higher risk of obesity development in both sexes. High incidence of obesity was observed among Tehranian adults with higher incidence of obesity in women. Different modifiable variables may act as risk factors for obesity development which should be targeted to control the epidemic of obesity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. The Clinical Effect of the Incidence Rate of Macrosomia on the Increase of Cesarean Section Rate%巨大儿发生率对剖宫产率增加的临床影响研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    严伟

    2015-01-01

    目的:探讨巨大儿发生率对剖宫产率增加的临床影响。方法回顾性分析我院妇产科2010年1月1日~2014年12月31日分娩的巨大儿295例和同期3263例正常体重儿的临床资料,比较产妇剖宫产率,分析其原因,并提出预防巨大儿发生的方法。结果2010年~2014年新生儿分娩数量分别为697例、798例、597例、835例和631例,各年巨大儿例数分别为54(7.7%)例、65(8.1%)例、50(8.4%)例、71(8.5%)例和55(8.7%)例,巨大儿发生率呈现逐年升高的趋势;巨大儿组中295例有229例为剖宫产,占比77.6%,正常体重组3263例中有1182例为剖宫产,占比36.2%,巨大儿组剖宫产率高于正常体重组,差异具有统计学意义(χ2=8.672,P <0.01);巨大儿组分娩并发症肩难产、新生儿产伤、新生儿窒息以及产后出血的例数和发生率分别为5(1.7%)、18(6.1%)、8(2.7%)和50(16.9%),而同期正常体重新生儿分娩并发症的例数和发生率分别为4(0.1%)、42(1.3%)、17(0.5%)和7(0.2%),巨大儿组分娩并发症发生率要高于正常体重组,差异具有统计学意义。结论孕期应该合理膳食,适当运动,对于糖尿病孕妇在孕期还应当控制血糖处于正常水平,尽可能降低巨大儿的发生率。对于产前确诊为巨大儿的,应适当放宽剖宫产的指征,尽可能减轻巨大儿对母婴造成的影响。%Objective To explore the clinical effect of the incidence rate of Macrosomia on the increase of cesarean section rate. Methods Retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of the 295 cases of Macrosomia and 3263 cases of normal weight children at the same period in our hospital from January 1,2010 to December 31,2014. Compared the rate of cesarean section,analyzed the reasons,and put forward methods to prevention it. Results From 2010 to 2014,the number of newborn respectively were 697/798/597/835/631 cases

  2. The incidences and mortalities of major cancers in China, 2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wan-Qing Chen; Rong-Shou Zheng; Si-Wei Zhang; Hong-Mei Zeng; Xiao-Nong Zou

    2014-01-01

    To estimate the cancer incidences and mortalities in China in 2010, the National Central Cancer Registry (NCCR) of China evaluated data for the year of 2010 from 145 qualified cancer registries covering 158,403,248 people (92,433,739 in urban areas and 65,969,509 in rural areas). The estimates of new cancer cases and cancer deaths were 3,093,039 and 1,956,622 in 2010, respectively. The percentage of morphologically verified cases were 67.11%; 2.99% of incident cases were identified through death certification only, with the mortality to incidence ratio of 0.61. The crude incidence was 235.23/100,000 (268.65/100,000 in males and 200.21/100,000 in females). The age-standardized rates by Chinese standard population (ASR China) and by world standard population (ASR world) were 184.58/100,000 and 181.49/100,000, respectively, with a cumulative incidence (0-74 years old) of 21.11%. The crude cancer mortality was 148.81/100,000 (186.37/100,000 in males and 109.42/100,000 in females). The ASR China and ASR world were 113.92/100,000 and 112.86/100,000, respectively, with a cumulative mortality of 12.78%. Lung, breast, gastric, liver, esophageal, colorectal, and cervical cancers were the most common cancers. Lung, liver, gastric, esophageal, colorectal, breast, and pancreatic cancers were the leading causes of cancer deaths. The coverage of cancer registration has rapidly increased in China in recent years and may reflect more accurate cancer burdens among populations living in different areas. Given the increasing cancer burden in the past decades, China should strengthen its cancer prevention and control.

  3. ABDOMINAL CLOSURE WITH ANTI BACTERIAL COATED SUTURE MATERIALS AND ITS RELATION TO THE INCIDENCE OF POST OPERATIVE SUPERFICIAL SURGICAL SITE INFECTION RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josephine Pudumai Selvi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Surgical site infection (SSI is an immense burden on healthcare resources even in the modern era of immaculate sterilization approaches and highly effective antibiotics. An estimated 234 million various surgical procedures, involving skin incisions requiring various types of wound closure techniques, are performed in the world, with the majority resulting in a wound healing by primary intention. Triclosan (5-chloro-2-(2, 4-dichlorophenoxy phenol is a broad-spectrum bactericidal agent that has been used for more than 40 years in various products, such as toothpaste and soaps. Higher concentrations of Triclosan work as a bactericide by attacking different structures in the bacterial cytoplasm and cell membrane. Use of Triclosan-coated sutures should theoretically result in the reduction of SSI. The aim of the study is to assess the abdominal closure with antibacterial coated suture materials and its relation to the incidence of post-operative superficial surgical site infection rates. MATERIALS AND METHODS The data will be collected from hospital records of surgery performed, post-operative daily progress notes and outpatient folders and telephonic conversations with patients after discharge. All patients undergoing laparotomy procedure for any cause. 100 patients divided as 50 in each group. RESULTS The positive outcome of infection (21.5% in patients using ordinary sutures was significantly differed with the positive outcome of infection (11.4% of Triclosan coated sutures. CONCLUSION In conclusion since there was a definite advantage inferred to the patients by using Triclosan coated polyglactin 910, it is the opinion of the researcher that Triclosan coated sutures has a role to play in reducing SSI in clean wounds and its use should be confined to areas where its application has proven benefits. However more studies should be done to clearly define its role and indications in surgery.

  4. Oral Administration of Faecalibacterium prausnitzii Decreased the Incidence of Severe Diarrhea and Related Mortality Rate and Increased Weight Gain in Preweaned Dairy Heifers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Foditsch

    Full Text Available Probiotics are a promising alternative to improve food animal productivity and health. However, scientific evidence that specific microbes can be used to benefit animal health and performance is limited. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of administering a live culture of Faecalibacterium prausnitzii to newborn dairy calves on subsequent growth, health, and fecal microbiome. Initially, a safety trial was conducted using 30 newborn bull calves to assess potential adverse effects of the oral and rectal administration of F. prausnitzii to neonatal calves. No adverse reactions, such as increased body temperature or heart and respiratory rates, were observed after the administration of the treatments. All calves survived the experimental period, and there was no difference in fecal consistency score, attitude, appetite or dehydration between the treatment groups. The rectal route was not an efficient practice while the oral route ensures that the full dose is administered to the treated calves. Subsequently, a randomized field trial was completed in a commercial farm with preweaned calves. A total of 554 Holstein heifers were assigned to one of two treatment groups: treated calves (FPTRT and non-treated calves (control. Treated calves received two oral doses of F. prausnitzii, one at treatment assignment (1st week and another one week later. The FPTRT group presented significantly lower incidence of severe diarrhea (3.1% compared with the control group (6.8%. Treated calves also had lower mortality rate associated with severe diarrhea (1.5% compared to control calves (4.4%. Furthermore, FPTRT calves gained significantly more weight, 4.4 kg over the preweaning period, than controls calves. The relative abundance of F. prausnitzii in the fecal microbiota was significantly higher in the 3rd and 5th weeks of life of FPTRT calves than of the control calves, as revealed by sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. Our findings showed that oral

  5. Cumulative Culture and Future Thinking: Is Mental Time Travel a Prerequisite to Cumulative Cultural Evolution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vale, G. L.; Flynn, E. G.; Kendal, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    Cumulative culture denotes the, arguably, human capacity to build on the cultural behaviors of one's predecessors, allowing increases in cultural complexity to occur such that many of our cultural artifacts, products and technologies have progressed beyond what a single individual could invent alone. This process of cumulative cultural evolution…

  6. Meteorological factors on the incidence of MP and RSV pneumonia in children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Dan-dan; Jiang, Rong; Chen, Xue-jun; Ye, Qing

    2017-01-01

    Background Pneumonia is common in children and mostly caused by many pathogens. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the incidence of pediatric mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) pneumonia and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) pneumonia was associated with meteorological factors in Hangzhou, China. Methods A total of 36500 pneumonia patients were recruited to participate in the study. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected for the detection of MP and RSV using real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and direct immunofluorescence (DIF) assays, respectively. We used a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to evaluate the correlations between the MP/RSV incidence and meteorological factors. Results The detection rates of MP and RSV were 18.4% and 10.4%, respectively. There was a positive correlation between temperature and the MP infection rate, but RSV infection rate was negatively associated with temperature. Moreover, the impact of temperature on infection with RSV presented evident lag and cumulative effects. There was also an evident lag effect of temperature on the infection rate of MP; however, there was no evident cumulative effect. Conclusions In this study, the results showed meteorological factors play an important role in the incidence of these two pathogens. All these results can provide the laboratory basis for the early diagnosis and treatment of pneumonia in children. PMID:28282391

  7. Use of medical insurance claims for surveillance of occupational disease. An analysis of cumulative trauma in the auto industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, R M; Nelson, N A; Silverstein, M A; Mirer, F E

    1992-07-01

    Medical insurance claims, linked with work histories for a large automotive manufacturer over a 3-year period, identified large numbers of cases of potentially work-related diseases, including 30,600 episodes of probable cumulative trauma disorders (CTD). CTD incidence rates were calculated within five plants, and high-risk areas identified, however, unknown differences in medical insurance coverage by exposure group limited interpretation. Case-control analyses, with controls also identified by insurance claims, addressed coverage and produced age-adjusted and sex-adjusted estimates of risks. All five plants had departments with statistically significant, elevated risks for one or more of the diagnoses carpal tunnel syndrome, CTD of other upper extremities, rotator cuff syndrome, CTD of the neck and of the lower back. Medical insurance claim data linked with work history provide the basis for practical and comprehensive surveillance for CTD and potentially a variety of other occupational diseases.

  8. Structure functions and particle production in the cumulative region two different exponentials

    CERN Document Server

    Braun, M

    1996-01-01

    In the framework of the recently proposed QCD based parton model for the cumulative phenomena in the interactions with nuclei two mechanisms for particle production, direct and spectator ones, are analysed. It is shown that due to final state interactions the leading terms of the direct mechanism contribution are cancelled and the spectator mechanism is the dominant one. It leads to a smaller slope of the cumulative particle production rates compared to the slope of the nuclear structure function in the cumulative region x>1, in agreement with the recent experimental data.

  9. Incidence Angle Effect of Energetic Carbon Ions on Deposition Rate, Topography, and Structure of Ultrathin Amorphous Carbon Films Deposited by Filtered Cathodic Vacuum Arc

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, N.

    2012-07-01

    The effect of the incidence angle of energetic carbon ions on the thickness, topography, and structure of ultrathin amorphous carbon (a-C) films synthesized by filtered cathodic vacuum arc (FCVA) was examined in the context of numerical and experimental results. The thickness of a-C films deposited at different incidence angles was investigated in the light of Monte Carlo simulations, and the calculated depth profiles were compared with those obtained from high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The topography and structure of the a-C films were studied by atomic force microscopy (AFM) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), respectively. The film thickness decreased with the increase of the incidence angle, while the surface roughness increased and the content of tetrahedral carbon hybridization (sp 3) decreased significantly with the increase of the incidence angle above 45° , measured from the surface normal. TEM, AFM, and XPS results indicate that the smoothest and thinnest a-C films with the highest content of sp 3 carbon bonding were produced for an incidence angle of 45°. The findings of this study have direct implications in ultrahigh-density magnetic recording, where ultrathin and smooth a-C films with high sp 3 contents are of critical importance. © 2012 IEEE.

  10. Is cumulated pyrethroid exposure associated with prediabetes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Martin Rune; Jørs, Erik; Lander, Flemming;

    2014-01-01

    , cumulative exposure) was assessed from questionnaire data. Participants were asked about symptoms of diabetes. Blood samples were analyzed for glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), a measure of glucose regulation. No association was found between pyrethroid exposure and diabetes symptoms. The prevalence...

  11. Cumulative Disadvantage among the Highly Ambitious.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, Katherine

    1990-01-01

    Using a social reproduction theory framework, analyzes the process by which high school seniors aspiring to high-level positions are sorted out after graduation. Analyzes early educational attainments and changes in occupational expectations. Shows a process of cumulative disadvantage in which White males are more likely to achieve their goals.…

  12. An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Tversky, A.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a method for axiomatizing a variety of models for decision making under uncertainty, including Expected Utility and Cumulative Prospect Theory. This method identifies, for each model, the situations that permit consistent inferences about the ordering of value differences. Exampl

  13. Cumulative Disadvantage among the Highly Ambitious.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, Katherine

    1990-01-01

    Using a social reproduction theory framework, analyzes the process by which high school seniors aspiring to high-level positions are sorted out after graduation. Analyzes early educational attainments and changes in occupational expectations. Shows a process of cumulative disadvantage in which White males are more likely to achieve their goals.…

  14. Conventional epidemiology underestimates the incidence of asthma and wheeze-a longitudinal population-based study among teenagers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedman Linnéa

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Because of shifts in the gender ratio and incidence and remission rates of asthma during the teen ages, the methodology of incidence studies among teenagers is important, i.e. if the time intervals between surveys are too long, the incident cases might not be properly identified. The aim was to study the impact of study design on the incidence rates of asthma and wheeze during the teen ages. Methods In a study about asthma and allergic diseases within the OLIN studies (Obstructive Lung Disease in northern Sweden, a cohort of school children (n = 3,430 was followed annually by questionnaire from age 8 yrs. In the endpoint survey (age 18 yrs 2,582 (75% of original responders participated. Incident cases from age 12-18 yrs were identified by two methods: annual questionnaire reports (AR and baseline-endpoint surveys only (BE. Results The cumulative incidence of asthma and wheeze was significantly higher based on AR compared to BE. Compared to the incidence rates based on all the annual surveys, the calculated average annual rates based on BE were in general lower both among the boys and among the girls. There were no differences between boys and girls in incidence rates of asthma or wheeze during the early teen years. However, from the age of 15 years, the annual incidence rates were significantly or borderline significantly higher among girls than boys. At onset, the additional cases of current asthma identified by AR had significantly less severe asthma than those identified in BE (p Conclusion the size of the incidence of asthma and wheeze during the teen ages was influenced by study design. By using the conventional prospective study design with longer follow-up time, the incidence was underestimated.

  15. Practical management of cumulative anthropogenic impacts with working marine examples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyhn, Line Anker; Wright, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    for petroleum. Human disturbances, including the noise almost ubiquitously associated with human activity, are likely to increase the incidence, magnitude, and duration of adverse effects on marine life, including stress responses. Stress responses have the potential to induce fitness consequences...... for individuals, which add to more obvious directed takes (e.g., hunting or fishing) to increase the overall population-level impact. To meet the requirements of marine spatial planning and ecosystem-based management, many efforts are ongoing to quantify the cumulative impacts of all human actions on marine...... species or populations. Meanwhile, regulators face the challenge of managing these accumulating and interacting impacts with limited scientific guidance. We believe there is scientific support for capping the level of impact for (at a minimum) populations in decline or with unknown statuses. This cap...

  16. Head impact exposure in youth football: high school ages 14 to 18 years and cumulative impact analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Jillian E; Davenport, Elizabeth M; Golman, Adam J; Maldjian, Joseph A; Whitlow, Christopher T; Powers, Alexander K; Stitzel, Joel D

    2013-12-01

    Sports-related concussion is the most common athletic head injury with football having the highest rate among high school athletes. Traditionally, research on the biomechanics of football-related head impact has been focused at the collegiate level. Less research has been performed at the high school level, despite the incidence of concussion among high school football players. The objective of this study is to twofold: to quantify the head impact exposure in high school football, and to develop a cumulative impact analysis method. Head impact exposure was measured by instrumenting the helmets of 40 high school football players with helmet mounted accelerometer arrays to measure linear and rotational acceleration. A total of 16,502 head impacts were collected over the course of the season. Biomechanical data were analyzed by team and by player. The median impact for each player ranged from 15.2 to 27.0 g with an average value of 21.7 (±2.4) g. The 95th percentile impact for each player ranged from 38.8 to 72.9 g with an average value of 56.4 (±10.5) g. Next, an impact exposure metric utilizing concussion injury risk curves was created to quantify cumulative exposure for each participating player over the course of the season. Impacts were weighted according to the associated risk due to linear acceleration and rotational acceleration alone, as well as the combined probability (CP) of injury associated with both. These risks were summed over the course of a season to generate risk weighted cumulative exposure. The impact frequency was found to be greater during games compared to practices with an average number of impacts per session of 15.5 and 9.4, respectively. However, the median cumulative risk weighted exposure based on combined probability was found to be greater for practices vs. games. These data will provide a metric that may be used to better understand the cumulative effects of repetitive head impacts, injury mechanisms, and head impact exposure of

  17. Different morphological types of sella turcica and incidence rate of sella turcica bridge%蝶鞍的类型和鞍桥的发生率

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑博文; 边慧慧; 刘奕; 张扬

    2016-01-01

    蝶鞍位于颅窝中部,蝶骨体内表面,中部是垂体窝。蝶鞍是脑颅和颅面复合体的X线分析的重要结构,在正畸中,蝶鞍中心点是头影测量片上最常使用的标志点之一,被用来测量上下颌相对于颅骨的位置,以及上下颌之间的相对位置,研究这些结构有助于正畸医生诊断,并且可以通过纵向的结构叠加来研究个体的生长,也用来评估正畸治疗结果。临床医生应熟悉该领域的正常解剖影像学和形态学的变化,以便识别和研究可能反映的病理情况。该文就蝶鞍的类型和鞍桥发生率作一综述。%Sella turcica is located in the middle cranial fossa, on the surface of sphenoid body, and its center is the pituitary fossa. Sella turcica is an important structure in the neurocranial and craniofacial complex, which is often used in radiographic analysis. In or⁃thodontics, sella point which is located at the center of sella turcica, is regarded as one of the most commonly used landmarks in cepha⁃lometrics. These landmarks, located within the craniofacial region, are used to measure the positions of maxilla and mandible in relation to the cranium. Orthodontists can benefit from studying these structures in diagnosis, studying growth in individuals through superimpo⁃sition of structures on a longitudinal basis, and evaluating orthodontic treatment results. Sella area is an important region, and may have variation between individuals. Therefore, understanding normal iconography and morphology of sella turcica will help orthodontists rec⁃ognize the pathological problems in sella turcica. This article reviewed the types of sella turcica and incidence rate of sella turcica bridge.

  18. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

    2017-07-01

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

  19. Cataract incidence in the cohort of occupationally exposed workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Bragin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To assess cataract incidence in the cohort of workers occupationally exposed to prolonged radiation. Material and Methods: Cataract incidence was studied in the cohort of workers of the first Russian nuclear enterprise — the Mayak, who were firstly employed at one of the main facilities (reactors, radiochemical and plutonium production plants in 1948‑1958 and followed up to the end of 2008 (12210 persons. Total of 3100 cataract cases were registered in the study cohort. All cataract cases were reviewed and verified by experts; the study included only confirmed senile cataracts. All workers of the study cohort were exposed to external gamma-rays; mean cumulative dose from external gamma-rays was 0.91±0.01 Gy in males and 0.65±0.01 Gy in females. Statistical analysis provided non-standardized and standardized incidence rates per 100 000 workers. Standardization by sex and age was performed by indirect method using internal reference.Results: 2523 cases of senile cataract were included in the study. Mean age of cataract diagnosis was 62.88±0.26 years in males and 64.88±0.28 years in females. Standardized incidence rates of cataract in females were significantly higher as compared to males and increased with workers age. Comparison between the subcohorts of workers with / without diagnosed cataracts demonstrated that among workers with cataracts the proportions of the following groups of workers were significantly higher: workers employed before 1954; workers employed at reactors; smoking workers; workers with the smoking index exceeding 20 pack*years; workers who consumed alcohol; workers with excessive body weight; workers with glaucoma and arterial hypertension. Moreover the mean cumulative dose from external gamma-rays and / or neutron exposure was significantly higher in the subcohort of workers diagnosed with cataracts than that in the subcohort of workers free of the disease. The highest cataract incidence

  20. Shelter crowding and increased incidence of acute respiratory infection in evacuees following the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake and tsunami.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawano, T; Tsugawa, Y; Nishiyama, K; Morita, H; Yamamura, O; Hasegawa, K

    2016-03-01

    Although outbreaks of acute respiratory infection (ARI) at shelters are hypothesized to be associated with shelter crowding, no studies have examined this relationship. We conducted a retrospective study by reviewing medical records of evacuees presenting to one of the 37 clinics at the shelters in Ishinomaki city, Japan, during the 3-week period after the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake and tsunami in 2011. On the basis of a locally weighted scatter-plot smoothing technique, we categorized 37 shelters into crowded (mean space crowded (⩾5·5 m2) shelters. Outcomes of interest were the cumulative and daily incidence rate of ARI/10 000 evacuees at each shelter. We found that the crowded shelters had a higher median cumulative incidence rate of ARI [5·4/10 000 person-days, interquartile range (IQR) 0-24·6, P = 0·04] compared to the non-crowded shelters (3·5/10 000 person-days, IQR 0-8·7) using Mann-Whitney U test. Similarly, the crowded shelters had an increased daily incidence rate of ARI of 19·1/10 000 person-days (95% confidence interval 5·9-32·4, P crowded shelters using quasi-least squares method. In sum, shelter crowding was associated with an increased incidence rate of ARI after the natural disaster.

  1. Convergence of decreasing male and increasing female incidence rates in major tobacco-related cancers in Europe in 1988-2010

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Lortet-Tieulent (J.); E. Renteria (Elisenda); L. Sharp; E. Weiderpass (Elisabete); H. Comber; P. Baas (Paul); F. Bray (Freddie); J.W.W. Coebergh (Jan Willem); I. Soerjomataram (Isabelle)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIntroduction: Smoking prevalence has been declining in men all over Europe, while the trend varies in European regions among women. To study the impact of past smoking prevalence, we present a comprehensive overview of the most recent trends in incidence, during 1988-2010, in 26 countrie

  2. Increasing Incidence in Relapsing-Remitting MS and High Rates among Young Women in Finland: A Thirty-Year Follow-Up

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marja-Liisa Sumelahti

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Object. Gender and disease course specific incidences were studied in high- and medium-risk regions of MS in Finland. Methods. Age- and gender-specific incidences with 95% CIs were calculated in 10-year periods from 1981 to 2010. Poser diagnostic criteria were used and compared with the McDonald criteria from 2001 to 2010. Association between age and diagnostic delay over time was assessed by using the Kruskal-Wallis test. Results. 1419 (89% RRMS and 198 (11% PPMS cases were included. RRMS incidence increased with the female to male ratio (F/M from 4,2/105 (F/M 1.9 to 9,7 (2.3, while that of PPMS decreased from 1,2 (1.6 to 0,7 (1.2. The use of McDonald criteria did not change the conclusion. The decreasing diagnostic delay and age at diagnosis in RRMS were associated within the 10-year periods and contrasted those in PPMS. Increasing female risk in RRMS was observed in the high-risk region. Conclusion. Increasing RRMS incidence and high female ratios shown in each age group indicate gender-specific influences acting already from childhood. A more precise definition of the risk factors and their action in MS is needed to provide a better understanding of underlying pathological processes and a rationale for the development of new preventive and treatment strategies.

  3. Cancer incidence and mortality in Swedish sterilant workers exposed to ethylene oxide: updated cohort study findings 1972-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikoczy, Zoli; Tinnerberg, Håkan; Björk, Jonas; Albin, Maria

    2011-06-01

    To assess whether cancer incidence, mainly from lymphohaematopoietic tumours and breast cancer, and mortality were increased in a cohort of Swedish sterilant workers exposed to low levels of ethylene oxide (EtO), updated with 16 more years of follow up. The mortality and cancer incidence 1972-2006 experienced by a cohort of 2,171 male and female workers employed for at least one year in two plants producing medical equipment sterilised with EtO were investigated. Individual cumulative exposure to EtO was assessed by occupational hygienists. Cause-specific standardized rate ratios were calculated using the regional general population as a comparison for mortality (SMR) and cancer incidence (SIR). Internal Poisson-regression analyses were performed for selected causes. The median cumulative exposure to EtO was 0.13 ppm-years. The overall cancer incidence was close to unity (SIR 0.94, 95% CI 0.82-1.08). Eighteen cases of lymphohaematopoietic cancer were observed (SIR 1.25, 95% CI 0.74-1.98). A healthy worker effect was indicated from a significantly decreased overall mortality and mortality from cardiovascular diseases. Internal analyses found significantly increased rate ratios for breast cancer for the two upper quartiles of cumulative exposure as compared to the lowest 50% of the cohort (IRR 2.76, 95% CI 1.20-6.33 and IRR 3.55, 95% CI 1.58-7.93). The findings from this updated study indicate limited or low risks for human cancer due to occupational exposure from ethylene oxide at the low cumulative exposure levels in this cohort. However a positive exposure-response relation with breast cancer was observed though.

  4. Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Swedish Sterilant Workers Exposed to Ethylene Oxide: Updated Cohort Study Findings 1972–2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikoczy, Zoli; Tinnerberg, Håkan; Björk, Jonas; Albin, Maria

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To assess whether cancer incidence, mainly from lymphohaematopoietic tumours and breast cancer, and mortality were increased in a cohort of Swedish sterilant workers exposed to low levels of ethylene oxide (EtO), updated with 16 more years of follow up. Methods: The mortality and cancer incidence 1972–2006 experienced by a cohort of 2,171 male and female workers employed for at least one year in two plants producing medical equipment sterilised with EtO were investigated. Individual cumulative exposure to EtO was assessed by occupational hygienists. Cause-specific standardized rate ratios were calculated using the regional general population as a comparison for mortality (SMR) and cancer incidence (SIR). Internal Poisson-regression analyses were performed for selected causes. Results: The median cumulative exposure to EtO was 0.13 ppm-years. The overall cancer incidence was close to unity (SIR 0.94, 95% CI 0.82–1.08). Eighteen cases of lymphohaematopoietic cancer were observed (SIR 1.25, 95% CI 0.74–1.98). A healthy worker effect was indicated from a significantly decreased overall mortality and mortality from cardiovascular diseases. Internal analyses found significantly increased rate ratios for breast cancer for the two upper quartiles of cumulative exposure as compared to the lowest 50% of the cohort (IRR 2.76, 95% CI 1.20–6.33 and IRR 3.55, 95% CI 1.58–7.93). Conclusions: The findings from this updated study indicate limited or low risks for human cancer due to occupational exposure from ethylene oxide at the low cumulative exposure levels in this cohort. However a positive exposure-response relation with breast cancer was observed though. PMID:21776215

  5. Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Swedish Sterilant Workers Exposed to Ethylene Oxide: Updated Cohort Study Findings 1972–2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Albin

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To assess whether cancer incidence, mainly from lymphohaematopoietic tumours and breast cancer, and mortality were increased in a cohort of Swedish sterilant workers exposed to low levels of ethylene oxide (EtO, updated with 16 more years of follow up. Methods: The mortality and cancer incidence 1972–2006 experienced by a cohort of 2,171 male and female workers employed for at least one year in two plants producing medical equipment sterilised with EtO were investigated. Individual cumulative exposure to EtO was assessed by occupational hygienists. Cause-specific standardized rate ratios were calculated using the regional general population as a comparison for mortality (SMR and cancer incidence (SIR. Internal Poisson-regression analyses were performed for selected causes. Results: The median cumulative exposure to EtO was 0.13 ppm-years. The overall cancer incidence was close to unity (SIR 0.94, 95% CI 0.82–1.08. Eighteen cases of lymphohaematopoietic cancer were observed (SIR 1.25, 95% CI 0.74–1.98. A healthy worker effect was indicated from a significantly decreased overall mortality and mortality from cardiovascular diseases. Internal analyses found significantly increased rate ratios for breast cancer for the two upper quartiles of cumulative exposure as compared to the lowest 50% of the cohort (IRR 2.76, 95% CI 1.20–6.33 and IRR 3.55, 95% CI 1.58–7.93. Conclusions: The findings from this updated study indicate limited or low risks for human cancer due to occupational exposure from ethylene oxide at the low cumulative exposure levels in this cohort. However a positive exposure-response relation with breast cancer was observed though.

  6. A situação do câncer de mama em Goiás, no Brasil e no mundo: tendências atuais para a incidência e a mortalidade Breast cancer in Goiás, in Brazil and in the World: current incidence and mortality rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Régis Resende Paulinelli

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available O câncer de mama apresenta elevada incidência e mortalidade em todo o mundo, representando um grave problema de saúde pública. A incidência dessa neoplasia vem aumentando nas últimas décadas, mesmo em áreas de tradicional baixa incidência, em grande parte devido às mudanças nos hábitos de vida e no perfil epidemiológico da população. Vários países desenvolvidos têm conseguido, apesar desse aumento na incidência, reduzir a sua mortalidade, através de um diagnóstico mais precoce e de um tratamento mais eficaz. Nesse artigo comentamos as tendências atuais para o câncer de mama em vários locais do mundo, de forma comparativa, bem como os possíveis fatores envolvidos nessas mudanças. Dispensamos particular atenção à situação do Brasil, e da cidade de Goiânia.Breast cancer has the highest incidence and mortality rates in the whole World, and is a severe public health issue. This type of neoplasia has been increasing in the last decades, even in areas of traditional low incidence in part due to changes in the lifestyle and epidemiological profile of the population. Various developed countries, notwithstanding this incidence increase, have succeeded to reduce mortality through early diagnosis and more efficacious treatment. This paper compares current breast cancer trend in various parts of World, as well as the possible factors involved in this change of pattern. Especial emphasis is placed on the problem in our country Brazil, and in our city, Goiânia.

  7. Medication incidents reported to an online incident reporting system.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Alrwisan, Adel

    2011-01-15

    AIMS: Approximately 20% of deaths from adverse events are related to medication incidents, costing the NHS an additional £500 million annually. Less than 5% of adverse events are reported. This study aims to assess the reporting rate of medication incidents in NHS facilities in the north east of Scotland, and to describe the types and outcomes of reported incidents among different services. Furthermore, we wished to quantify the proportion of reported incidents according to the reporters\\' profession. METHODS: A retrospective description was made of medication incidents reported to an online reporting system (DATIX) over a 46-month-period (July 2005 to April 2009). Reports originated from acute and community hospitals, mental health, and primary care facilities. RESULTS: Over the study period there were 2,666 incidents reported with a mean monthly reporting rate of 78.2\\/month (SD±16.9). 6.1% of all incidents resulted in harm, with insulin being the most commonly implicated medication. Nearly three-quarters (74.2%, n=1,978) of total incidents originated from acute hospitals. Administration incidents were implicated in the majority of the reported medication incidents (59%), followed by prescribing (10.8%) and dispensing (9.9%), while the nondescript "other medication incidents" accounted for 20.3% of total incidents. The majority of reports were made by nursing and midwifery staff (80%), with medical and dental professionals reporting the lowest number of incidents (n=56, 2%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of medication incidents in this study were reported by nursing and midwifery staff, and were due to administration incidents. There is a clear need to elucidate the reasons for the limited contribution of the medical and dental professionals to reporting medication incidents.

  8. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien Querbes

    Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  9. Avoiding Program-Induced Cumulative Overload (PICO).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, Robin; Knapik, Joseph J; Pope, Rodney

    2016-01-01

    This article defines the concept of program-induced cumulative overload (PICO), provides examples, and advises ways to mitigate the adverse effects. PICO is the excessive cumulative physical workload that can be imparted to military personnel by a military training program with an embedded physical training component. PICO can be acute (accumulating within a single day) or chronic (accumulating across the entirety of the program) and results in adverse outcomes for affected personnel, including detrimental fatigue, performance degradation, injuries, or illness. Strategies to mitigate PICO include focusing administration and logistic practices during the development and ongoing management of a trainee program and implementing known musculoskeletal injury prevention strategies. More training is not always better, and trainers need to consider the total amount of physical activity that military personnel experience across both operational training and physical training if PICO is to be mitigated.

  10. Structural Vibration Monitoring Using Cumulative Spectral Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoru Goto

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a resonance decay estimation for structural health monitoring in the presence of nonstationary vibrations. In structural health monitoring, the structure's frequency response and resonant decay characteristics are very important for understanding how the structure changes. Cumulative spectral analysis (CSA estimates the frequency decay by using the impulse response. However, measuring the impulse response of buildings is impractical due to the need to shake the building itself. In a previous study, we reported on system damping monitoring using cumulative harmonic analysis (CHA, which is based on CSA. The current study describes scale model experiments on estimating the hidden resonance decay under non-stationary noise conditions by using CSA for structural condition monitoring.

  11. Cumulative carbon emissions and the Green Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Ploeg, Frederick Van der

    2013-01-01

    The green paradox states that a gradually more ambitious climate policy such as a renewables subsidy or an anticipated carbon tax induces fossil fuel owners to extract more rapidly and accelerate global warming. However, if extraction becomes more costly as reserves are depleted, such policies also shorten the fossil fuel era, induce more fossil fuel to be left in the earth, and thus curb cumulative carbon emissions. These consequences are relevant, as global warming depends primarily on cumu...

  12. EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

  13. Revisiting the concept of ‘chronic disease’ from the perspective of the episode of care model. Does the ratio of incidence to prevalence rate help us to define a problem as chronic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean K Soler

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Background This is a study of the epidemiology of acute and chronic episodes of care (EoCs in the Transition Project in three countries. We studied the duration of EoCs for acute and chronic health problems and the relationship of incidence to prevalence rates for these EoCs.Method The Transition Project databases collect data on all elements of the doctor–patient encounter in family medicine. Family doctors code these elements using the International Classification of Primary Care.We used the data from three practice populations to study the duration of EoCs and the ratio of incidence to prevalence for common health problems.Results We found that chronic health problems tended to have proportionately longer duration EoCs, as expected, but also a lower incidence to prevalence rate ratio than acute health problems. Thus, the incidence to prevalence index could be used to define a chronic condition as one with a low ratio, below a defined threshold.Conclusions Chronic health problems tend to have longer duration EoCs, proportionately, across populations. This result is expected, but we found important similarities and differences which make defining a problem as chronic on the basis of time rather difficult. The ratio of incidence to prevalence rates has potential to categorise health problems into acute or chronic categories, at different ratio thresholds (such as 20, 30 or 50%. It seems to perform well in this study of three family practice populations, and is proposed to the scientific community for further evaluation.

  14. Longhi Games, Internal Reservoirs, and Cumulate Porosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, S. A.

    2009-05-01

    values less than 6 %. Hence all the many rocks below that value are perfect adcumulates with zero residual porosity. Two great surprises emerge from the data. First, there is an abrupt spike from a residual porosity of about 2 to 8 % at 90 PCS, attributed to the great over-production and recovery of Augite and Fe-Ti oxides arising from varied interaction with the internal reservoir of the large magma chamber (Morse, 1979 and 2008 JPet). Second, the Fo range of olivine dramatically shows the same pattern, with Fo range up to 6%; the disparately located grains of olivine have not equilibrated with each other at above 1,000 degrees C and for many thousands of years. This demonstrates the lack of interconnected trapped liquid, hence no mushy zone. Application to meager An-range data in the Skaergaard intrusion shows a similar V-shaped decline to zero porosity (at about 70 PCS) followed by a rise to high values at the Sandwich Horizon. In both intrusions, the late rise signifies increasing cooling by conduction and increasing dominance of feldspar networks that retain increasingly large volumes of trapped liquid. The hard ground of maximum adcumulus growth occurs near the top of the Skaergaard Middle Zone, probably explaining why the sulfide-related Au-PGE ores accumulated there. Quantification of INITIAL porosity in natural rocks is seldom if ever achieved, but can plausibly be mapped from the upper limit of the An range for the Kiglapait intrusion. This parameter must apparently also reach zero at 99 PCS, implying a packing fraction of 1.0 at a minimum rate of accumulation. Hence we may now learn the whole route from initial to final porosity for a large array of cumulate rocks. The results will constrain our hypotheses about accumulation, solidification, and mushy zones for a long time to come.

  15. Relationship between cumulative BMI and symptomatic, psychosocial, and medical outcomes in patients with borderline personality disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankenburg, Frances R; Zanarini, Mary C

    2011-08-01

    We examined the relationship between cumulative body mass index (BMI) and symptomatic, psychosocial, and medical outcomes in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Two hundred female borderline patients were weighed and measured during their index admission. They were subsequently interviewed at six-, eight-, and 10-year intervals. Over 10 years of prospective follow-up, increases in cumulative BMI were significantly associated with self-mutilation and dissociation (but not suicide attempts). Increases in cumulative BMI were also significantly associated with having no life partner, a poor work or school history, being on disability, being rated with a GAF score in the fair or poor range, and having a low income. In addition, increases in BMI were related to having two or more other medical conditions and using costly forms of health care. Increases in cumulative BMI may be a marker for adverse symptomatic, functional, and medical outcomes in patients with BPD.

  16. Cumulative Phenomena through the Quark-Parton Diagram Summation at Thresholds

    CERN Document Server

    Braun, M A

    1998-01-01

    A microscopic treatment of cumulative phenomena based on perturbative QCD calculations of the corresponding quark diagrams near the threshold is presented. To sum all diagrams like these the special technique based on the recurrence relations was developed. The x-behaviour of the nuclear structure function $F_{2}(x)$ in the cumulative region x>1 was found to be roughly exponential, governed by an effective coupling constant, which depends on the QCD coupling constant and quark mass. Two mechanisms for cumulative particle production, direct and spectator ones, were analysed. It was shown that due to final state interactions the leading terms of the direct mechanism contribution are cancelled and the spectator mechanism is the dominant one. It leads to a smaller slope of the particle production rates compared to the slope of the nuclear structure function in the cumulative region, in agreement with the recent experimental data. The slope difference is due to additional multiple interactions between nuclear and ...

  17. The incidences and mortalities of major cancers in China, 2009

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wanqing Chen; Rongshou Zheng; Siwei Zhang; Ping Zhao; Guanglin Li; Lingyou Wu; Jie He

    2013-01-01

    In 2012,the National Central Cancer Registry (NCCR) of China collected cancer registration information for the year 2009 from local cancer registries and analyzed it to describe the incidences and mortalities of cancers in China.Based on the data quality criteria from NCCR,data from 104 registries covering 85,470,522 people (57,489,009 in urban areas and 27,981,513 in rural areas) were checked and evaluated.The data from 72 registries were qualified and accepted for the cancer registry annual report in 2012.The total cancer incident cases and cancer deaths were 244,366 and 154,310,respectively.The morphologically verified cases accounted for 67.23% and 3.14% of the incident cases only had information from death certifications.The crude incidence in the Chinese cancer registration areas was 285.91/100,000 (317.97/100,000 in males and 253.09/100,000 in females).The age-standardized rates for incidences based on the Chinese standard population (ASRIC) and the world standard population (ASRIW) were 146.87/100,000 and 191.72/100,000,respectively,with a cumulative incidence of 22.08%.The cancer mortality in the Chinese cancer registration areas was 180.54/100,000 (224.20/100,000 in males and 135.85/100,000 in females).The age-standardized rates for mortalities based on the Chinese standard population (ASRMC) and the world standard population (ASRMW) were 85.06/100,000 and 115.65/100,000,respectively,and the cumulative mortality was 12.94%.Lung cancer,gastric cancer,colorectal cancer,liver cancer,esophageal cancer,pancreatic cancer,encephaloma,lymphoma,female breast cancer,and cervical cancer were the most common cancers,accounting for 75% of all cancer cases.Lung cancer,gastric cancer,liver cancer,esophageal cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer,breast cancer,encephaloma,leukemia,and lymphoma accounted for 80% of all cancer deaths.The cancer registration's population coverage has been increasing,and its data quality is improving.As the basis of the

  18. Is nelfinavir exposure associated with cancer incidence in HIV-positive individuals?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boettiger, David C; Sabin, Caroline A; Grulich, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Nelfinavir exhibits potent anticancer properties against a range of tumours. However, in 2006/2007, nelfinavir supplies were accidently contaminated with a carcinogen. This analysis investigated the association between nelfinavir use and cancer risk in HIV-positive persons. DESIGN......: Observational cohort study. METHODS: D:A:D study data was analysed using Poisson regression models to examine associations between cancer incidence and cumulative nelfinavir exposure, current nelfinavir exposure, and exposure to nelfinavir between 1 July 2006-30 June 2007. RESULTS: A total of 42 006 individuals......-up, nelfinavir was used by 2476 individuals for a median of 1.7 (IQR 0.7-3.8) years; 1063 were exposed to nelfinavir between 1 July 2006 and 30 June 2007. Overall, 2279 cancers were diagnosed at a rate of 0.75 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.72-0.78] per 100 person-years. Neither greater cumulative exposure...

  19. Assessment of the Effect of Fungicide and Seed Rate on the Incidence of Leaf Blast (Magnaphorthe Grisea, On the Growth of Foxtail Millet (Setaria Italica (L. P. BEAUV in North-eastern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. G. S. Turaki

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In 2007 a multilocational trial was conducted in a split-plot using randomized complete block University of Maiduguri and Gashua Farm station to assess the effects of fungicide and seed rate on the incidence of leaf blast (Magnaphorte grisea, on the growth and yield of foxtail millet in the Northeastern Nigeria. The results showed that the lowest disease incidence of 20.8% and 0.4% were recorded from 100% recorded significantly (P < 0.05 the highest disease incidence of 80.0% and 64.3% at Maiduguri and Gashua respectively. The highest plant height and panicle length were recorded from plants grown at fungicide seed treatment ranging from 80-100% at seed rate of 5.0kg/ha. The lowest plant height and panicle length were obtained from plants grown from the untreated seed tate of 12.5kg/ha and while the lowest grain yields were recorded from untreated seed rate of 5.0kg/h at Maiduguri and Gashua respectively.

  20. Spatio-temporal distribution of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae mitochondrial lineages in cities with distinct dengue incidence rates suggests complex population dynamics of the dengue vector in Colombia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeiczon Jaimes-Dueñez

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of the four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV1-4, Chikungunya and yellow fever virus to humans. Previous population genetic studies have revealed a particular genetic structure among the vector populations in the Americas that suggests differences in the ability to transmit DENV. In Colombia, despite its high epidemiologic importance, the genetic population structure and the phylogeographic depiction of Ae. aegypti, as well as its relationship with the epidemiologic landscapes in cities with heterogeneous incidence levels, remains unknown. We conducted a spatiotemporal analysis with the aim of determining the genetic structure and phylogeography of Colombian populations of Ae. aegypti among cities with different eco-epidemiologic characteristics with regard to DENV.Mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase C subunit 1 (COI--NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 (ND4 genes were sequenced and analyzed from 341 adult mosquitoes collected during 2012 and 2013 in the Colombian cities of Bello, Riohacha and Villavicencio, which exhibit low, medium and high levels of incidence of DENV, respectively. The results demonstrated a low genetic differentiation over time and a high genetic structure between the cities due to changes in the frequency of two highly supported genetic groups. The phylogeographic analyses indicated that one group (associated with West African populations was found in all the cities throughout the sampling while the second group (associated with East African populations was found in all the samples from Bello and in only one sampling from Riohacha. Environmental factors such as the use of chemical insecticides showed a significant correlation with decreasing genetic diversity, indicating that environmental factors affect the population structure of Ae. aegypti across time and space in these cities.Our results suggest that two Ae. aegypti lineages are present in Colombia; one that is widespread and related to a West

  1. Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Mitochondrial Lineages in Cities with Distinct Dengue Incidence Rates Suggests Complex Population Dynamics of the Dengue Vector in Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaimes-Dueñez, Jeiczon; Arboleda, Sair; Triana-Chávez, Omar; Gómez-Palacio, Andrés

    2015-01-01

    Background Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of the four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV1-4), Chikungunya and yellow fever virus to humans. Previous population genetic studies have revealed a particular genetic structure among the vector populations in the Americas that suggests differences in the ability to transmit DENV. In Colombia, despite its high epidemiologic importance, the genetic population structure and the phylogeographic depiction of Ae. aegypti, as well as its relationship with the epidemiologic landscapes in cities with heterogeneous incidence levels, remains unknown. We conducted a spatiotemporal analysis with the aim of determining the genetic structure and phylogeography of Colombian populations of Ae. aegypti among cities with different eco-epidemiologic characteristics with regard to DENV. Methods/Findings Mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase C subunit 1 (COI) - NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 (ND4) genes were sequenced and analyzed from 341 adult mosquitoes collected during 2012 and 2013 in the Colombian cities of Bello, Riohacha and Villavicencio, which exhibit low, medium and high levels of incidence of DENV, respectively. The results demonstrated a low genetic differentiation over time and a high genetic structure between the cities due to changes in the frequency of two highly supported genetic groups. The phylogeographic analyses indicated that one group (associated with West African populations) was found in all the cities throughout the sampling while the second group (associated with East African populations) was found in all the samples from Bello and in only one sampling from Riohacha. Environmental factors such as the use of chemical insecticides showed a significant correlation with decreasing genetic diversity, indicating that environmental factors affect the population structure of Ae. aegypti across time and space in these cities. Conclusions Our results suggest that two Ae. aegypti lineages are present in Colombia; one that is

  2. A meta-analysis for the effect of prophylactic GTN on the incidence of post-ERCP pancreatitis and on the successful rate of cannulation of bile ducts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Chun-hui

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Glyceryl trinitrate (GTN has been shown to be able to relax the sphincter of Oddi (SO both in animals and humans. Theoretically, the use of these compounds during and after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatgraphy (ERCP could relax the biliary and pancreatic sphincters, facilitating cannulation of common bile duct (CBD during the procedure, or minimizing potential pancreatic outflow obstruction after the procedure. However, clinical trials evaluating the protective effect of GTN on the post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatgraphy pancreatitis (PEP have yielded inconclusive results. This meta-analysis is to systematically assess the effect of prophylactic administration of glyceryl trinitrate (GTN on the prevention of PEP and the effect on the cannulation of bile ducts. Methods By searching PubMed (1966 to September 2009, CENTRAL (Cochrane Controlled trials Register; issue 3, 2009 and EMBASE.com (1984 to September 2009, two independent reviewers systematically identified prospective randomized controlled trials (RCTs detecting the effect of prophylactic GTN on the incidence of PEP and on the cannulation of bile ducts. A meta-analysis of these clinical trials was then performed. Results There are 55/899(6.1% patients suffering PEP in the treatment group versus 95/915(10.4% patients in the placebo group. The overall pooled risk of PEP was significantly lower in the GTN group than in the placebo group (OR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.40 to 0.79, p = 0.001. Subgroup analyses suggested that GTN administered by the sublingual form (OR 0.34,95% CI:0.16 to 0.75, p = 0.007 is more effective than transdermal route(OR 0.64,95% CI:0.40 to 1.01, p = 0.05, and the protective effect of GTN was far more obvious in the centers with high incidence of PEP (OR 0.40, 95% CI:0.24 to 0.67, p = 0.0006 than those centers with a low incidence of PEP (OR 0.75, 95% CI: 0.47 to 1.20, p = 0.22. Additionally, the meta-analysis suggests that GTN was not

  3. Cumulative risks of foster care placement for Danish children

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Although recent research suggests that the cumulative risk of foster care placement is far higher for American children than originally suspected, little is known about the cumulative risk of foster...

  4. Recursive Numerical Evaluation of the Cumulative Bivariate Normal Distribution

    CERN Document Server

    Meyer, Christian

    2010-01-01

    We propose an algorithm for evaluation of the cumulative bivariate normal distribution, building upon Marsaglia's ideas for evaluation of the cumulative univariate normal distribution. The algorithm is mathematically transparent, delivers competitive performance and can easily be extended to arbitrary precision.

  5. Estimación de la Incidencia de Cáncer de Tiroides en Capital Federal y el Gran Buenos Aires (período 2003-2011 Incidences Rates of Thyroid Cancer in Buenos Aires (2003-2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo N Faure

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available La incidencia del cáncer de tiroides ha aumentado significativamente en las últimas décadas en el resto del mundo. En Argentina no existe un registro nacional de cáncer por lo que la incidencia del mismo no puede establecerse. Por lo tanto, nuestro objetivo fue estimar la incidencia de cáncer de tiroides en la población de la Ciudad Autánoma de Buenos aires y Gran Buenos Aires así como la relación por género y la histología en el período de 2003 hasta 2011. Asumiendo que la población de afiliados a la Obra Social de la Policía Federal Argentina es representativa de los habitantes de Buenos Aires y el conurbano calculamos que la incidencia es de 6,51 casos/100.000 habitantes/año, con un incremento en 25 años mayor al doble, con predominio del carcinoma papilar frente al folicular.Thyroid cancer incidence has significantly risen worldwide in the last decades. In Argentina, there is no national cancer registry; therefore its incidence can not be established. The objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of thyroid cancer in the population of Buenos Aires City and suburbs, and the relationship between gender and histology over the period 2003-2011. Assuming that the population affiliated to the Social Security of the Argentine Federal Police is representative of the inhabitants of Buenos Aires City and suburbs, we estimate an incidence of 6.51 cases/100,000 population/year, with an increasing incidence of almost double from 1981-1986 to 2003-2011. An increase in papillary thyroid cancer was mainly responsible for this rising trend. Incidence rates were higher for females (11.76/100,000 women compared to those for males (2.65/100,000 men. Among men and women of all ages, the highest rate of incidence was for tumor size < 1 cm.

  6. Climate mitigation: sustainable preferences and cumulative carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckle, Simon

    2010-05-01

    We develop a stylized AK growth model with both climate damages to ecosystem goods and services and sustainable preferences that allow trade-offs between present discounted utility and long-run climate damages. The simplicity of the model permits analytical solutions. Concern for the long-term provides a strong driver for mitigation action. One plausible specification of sustainable preferences leads to the result that, for a range of initial parameter values, an optimizing agent would choose a level of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions independent of initial production capital endowment and CO2 levels. There is no technological change so, for economies with sufficiently high initial capital and CO2 endowments, optimal mitigation will lead to disinvestment. For lower values of initial capital and/or CO2 levels, positive investment can be optimal, but still within the same overall level of cumulative emissions. One striking aspect of the model is the complexity of possible outcomes, in addition to these optimal solutions. We also identify a resource constrained region and several regions where climate damages exceed resources available for consumption. Other specifications of sustainable preferences are discussed, as is the case of a hard constraint on long-run damages. Scientists are currently highlighting the potential importance of the cumulative carbon emissions concept as a robust yet flexible target for climate policymakers. This paper shows that it also has an ethical interpretation: it embodies an implicit trade off in global welfare between present discounted welfare and long-term climate damages. We hope that further development of the ideas presented here might contribute to the research and policy debate on the critical areas of intra- and intergenerational welfare.

  7. [Critical incidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheidegger, D

    2005-03-01

    In medicine real severe mishaps are rare. On the other hand critical incidents are frequent. Anonymous critical incident reporting systems allow us to learn from these mishaps. This learning process will make our daily clinical work safer Unfortunately, before these systems can be used efficiently our professional culture has to be changed. Everyone in medicine has to admit that errors do occur to see the need for an open discussion. If we really want to learn from errors, we cannot punish the individual, who reported his or her mistake. The interest is primarily in what has happened and why it has happened and not who has committed this mistake. The cause for critical incidents in medicine is in over 80% the human factor Poor communication, work under enormous stress, conflicts and hierarchies are the main cause. This has been known for many years, therefore have already 15 years ago high-tech industries, like e.g. aviation, started to invest in special courses on team training. Medicine is a typical profession were until now only the individual performance decided about the professional career Communication, conflict management, stress management, decision making, risk management, team and team resource management were subjects that have never been taught during our preor postgraduate education. These points are the most important ones for an optimal teamwork. A multimodular course designed together with Swissair (Human Aspect Development medical, HADmedical) helps to cover, as in aviation, the soft factor and behavioural education in medicine and to prepare professionals in health care to work as a real team.

  8. Reasons for discrepancy between incidence and prevalence of epilepsy in lower income countries: Epilepsia's survey results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathern, Gary W; Beninsig, Laurie; Nehlig, Astrid

    2015-02-01

    From July to August 2014, Epilepsia conducted an online survey seeking opinions that explained the discrepancy between the incidence and prevalence of epilepsy in lower income countries. Data on cumulative incidence suggest a higher rate of active epilepsy than reported in lifetime prevalence surveys. This study reports the findings of that poll addressing the proposal in our Controversy in Epilepsy series that it could be from increased death rates. The survey consisted of a question addressing possible reasons to explain the discrepancy between the incidence and prevalence of epilepsy. Another four questions addressed demographic information. There were 34 responders who completed the survey. Half (50%) of the responders felt that the discrepancy between cumulative incidence and lifetime prevalence was due to lack of uniform definitions and misclassification of patients in study design, 23.5% said the discrepancy was due to a higher mortality from diseases and conditions such as trauma and infections associated with epilepsy, 23.5% indicated that the stigma of epilepsy prevented people from acknowledging their disease in prevalence surveys, and 2.9% felt it was from poor access to qualified medical personal and utilization of medical treatments that increased death rates directly related to epilepsy. Within the limitations of sample size, the results of this survey support that the discrepancy between the incidence and prevalence of epilepsy in lower income regions of the world is due to problems in acquiring the data and stigma rather than higher mortality from diseases associated with epilepsy and repeated seizures. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2014 International League Against Epilepsy.

  9. Long and Short Term Cumulative Structural Priming Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Kaschak, Michael P.; Kutta, Timothy J.; Coyle, Jacqueline M.

    2012-01-01

    We present six experiments that examine cumulative structural priming effects (i.e., structural priming effects that accumulate across many utterances). Of particular interest is whether (1) cumulative priming effects transfer across language production tasks and (2) the transfer of cumulative priming effects across tasks persists over the course of a week. Our data suggest that cumulative structural priming effects do transfer across language production tasks (e.g., from written stem complet...

  10. Cancer incidence rate after diagnostic X-ray exposure in 1976-2003 among patients of a university children's hospital; Inzidenz von Kinderkrebs nach Roentgendiagnostik im Patientenkollektiv der Jahre 1976-2003 einer Universitaets-Kinderklinik

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hammer, G.P.; Zeeb, H.; Blettner, M. [Mainz Univ. (DE). Inst. fuer Medizinische Biometrie, Epidemiologie und Informatik (IMBEI); Seidenbusch, M.C.; Schneider, K. [Klinikum der Univ. Muenchen, Dr. von Haunersches Kinderspital (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Regulla, D. [Helmholtz Zentrum Muenchen - Deutsches Forschungszentrum fuer Gesundheit und Umwelt, Neuherberg (Germany). Inst. fuer Strahlenschutz; Spix, C. [Mainz Univ. (Germany). Deutsches Kinderkrebsregister

    2010-05-15

    Purpose: Although the carcinogenic effect of ionizing radiation is well known, knowledge gaps persist on the health effects of low-dose radiation, especially in children. The cancer incidence rate in a cohort of 92,957 children diagnosed using X-rays in the years 1976-2003 in the radiology department of a large university clinic was studied. Materials and Methods: Individual radiation doses per examination were reconstructed using an algorithm taking into account the dose area product and other exposure parameters together with conversion factors computed specifically for the equipment and protocols used in the radiology department. Incident cancer cases in the period 1980-2006 were identified via record linkage to the German Childhood Cancer Registry using pseudonymized data. Results: A total of 87 cancers occurred in the cohort between 1980 and 2006: 33 leukemia, 13 lymphoma, 10 brain tumors, and 31 other tumors. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for all cancers was 0.99 (95 % CI: 0.79 1.22). A dose-response relationship was not observed for all cancers, leukemia and lymphoma or solid tumors. The cancer risks for boys and girls did not differ. Conclusion: No increase in the cancer incidence risk in relation to very low doses of diagnostic ionizing radiation was observed in this study. However, the results are compatible with a broad range of risk estimates. (orig.)

  11. Preserved cumulative semantic interference despite amnesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Michael Oppenheim

    2015-05-01

    As predicted by Oppenheim et al’s (2010 implicit incremental learning account, WRP’s BCN RTs demonstrated strong (and significant repetition priming and semantic blocking effects (Figure 1. Similar to typical results from neurally intact undergraduates, WRP took longer to name pictures presented in semantically homogeneous blocks than in heterogeneous blocks, an effect that increased with each cycle. This result challenges accounts that ascribe cumulative semantic interference in this task to explicit memory mechanisms, instead suggesting that the effect has the sort of implicit learning bases that are typically spared in hippocampal amnesia.

  12. Cumulant matching for independent source extraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phlypo, Ronald; Zarzoso, Vicente; Comon, Pierre; Lemahieu, Ignace

    2008-01-01

    In this work we show how one can make use of priors on signal statistics under the form of cumulant guesses to extract an independent source from an observed mixture. The advantage of using statistical priors on the signal lies in the fact that no specific knowledge is needed about its temporal behavior, neither about its spatial distribution. We show that these statistics can be obtained either by reasoning on the theoretical values of a supposed waveform, either by using a subset of the observations from which we know that their statistics are merely hindered by interferences. Results on an electro-cardiographic recording confirm the above assumptions.

  13. A Missing Link in the Evolution of the Cumulative Recorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Toshio; Lattal, Kennon A.

    2012-01-01

    A recently recovered cumulative recorder provides a missing link in the evolution of the cumulative recorder from a modified kymograph to a reliably operating, scientifically and commercially successful instrument. The recorder, the only physical evidence of such an early precommercial cumulative recorder yet found, was sent to Keio University in…

  14. Original and cumulative prospect theory: a discussion of empirical differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.P. Wakker; H. Fennema

    1997-01-01

    This note discusses differences between prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory. It shows that cumulative prospect theory is not merely a formal correction of some theoretical problems in prospect theory, but it also gives different predictions. Experiments are described that favor cumulative

  15. The Challenge of Developing Social Indicators for Cumulative Effects Assessment and Land Use Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Parkins

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a synopsis on social indicators as relevant to cumulative effects assessment and land use planning. Although much has been done to better understand the social dimensions of environmental assessment, empirical work has been lacking on social indicators that could be used either as measurable inputs or outputs for cumulative effects assessment and land use planning in different kinds of communities and regions. Cumulative effects models currently in practice often fail to address deeper issues of community and regional well-being. Against this gap, social scientists are being asked to make reliable generalizations about functional, measurable relationships between certain social indicators and land use change or scenarios. To address this challenge, the Alberta Research Council held a two-day workshop in 2005 with social scientists. The workshop resulted in a list of prioritized social indicators that could be included in cumulative effects modeling/assessments and land use planning. The top five social indicators included population growth rate, education attainment, self-assessed quality of life, equity, i.e., distribution of benefits, and locus of control. Although consensus on social indicators and social thresholds for cumulative effects models was not reached, the insight gained from the workshop will help inform future cumulative effects assessment and land use planning.

  16. Spatial analysis of incidence of cutaneous melanoma in the Friuli Venezia Giulia region in the period 1995-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecconi, Lorenzo; Busolin, Anna; Barbone, Fabio; Serraino, Diego; Chiarugi, Alessandra; Biggeri, Annibale; Catelan, Dolores

    2016-04-18

    Incidence distribution of cutaneous melanoma depends on phenotypic characteristics of population and geographic location. In Italy, in the period 1999-2003 Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) region had the second highest incidence rates for males and the third for females. We analysed melanoma and lip cancer incidence data of the FVG cancer registry for the period 1995-2005. We used Bayesian hierarchical spatial models to describe the spatial pattern by gender. We decomposed the geographical distribution of the risk in two parts: a component linked to chronic exposure and a component related to intermittent exposure. In order to model the chronic component we considered the geographical distribution of incidence cases of lip cancer, for which chronic occupational solar radiation exposure is a documented risk factor. We also analysed the distribution by site and we calculated standardised rates for body surface area. This study documents a significant gradient in the incidence of cutaneous melanoma in FVG. High-standardized incidence rates are present in the area of Trieste and in the coastal area. The descriptive analysis by age group and by site, showed risks associated with intermittent exposures in both genders. For the coastal area the risk is especially high for sites traditionally linked to high cumulative exposures (face and neck), especially among men. The results suggest diagnostic preventive interventions in the populations living in the area of Trieste, given the high rates observed in the young age groups.

  17. Suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in children and adolescents with bipolar disorder: a systematic review of prevalence and incidence rates, risk factors, and targeted interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Marta; Galling, Britta; Correll, Christoph U

    2013-01-01

    Objective Pediatric bipolar disorder (PBD) is associated with poor outcomes, including suicidal ideation (SI) and suicide attempt (SA). However, frequencies and risk factors of SI/SA and targeted intervention trials for SI/SA in PBD have not been reviewed systematically. Methods We conducted a systematic PubMed review, searching for articles reporting on prevalences/incidences, correlates and intervention studies targeting SI/SA in PBD. Weighted means were calculated, followed by an exploratory meta-regression of SI and SA correlates. Results Fourteen studies (n = 1,595) with 52.1% males aged 14.4 years reported data on SI/SA prevalence (N = 13, n = 1,508) and/or correlates (N = 10, n = 1,348) in PBD. Weighted mean prevalences were: past SI = 57.4%, past SA = 21.3%, current SI = 50.4%, and current SA = 25.5%; incidences (mean: 42 months follow-up were: SI = 14.6% and SA = 14.7%. Regarding significant correlates, SI (N = 3) was associated with a higher percentage of Caucasian race, narrow (as opposed to broad) PBD phenotype, younger age, and higher quality of life than SA. Significant correlates of SA (N = 10) included female gender, older age, earlier illness onset, more severe/episodic PBD, mixed episodes, comorbid disorders, past self-injurious behavior/SI/SA, physical/sexual abuse, parental depression, family history of suicidality, and poor family functioning. Race, socioeconomic status, living situation, and life events were not clearly associated with SA. In a meta-regression analysis, bipolar I disorder and comorbid attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder were significantly associated with SA. Only one open label study targeting the reduction of SI/SA in PBD was identified. Conclusions SI and SA are highly common but under-investigated in PBD. Exploration of predictors and protective factors is imperative for the establishment of effective preventive and intervention strategies, which are urgently needed. PMID:23829436

  18. Cumulative Environmental Management Association : Wood Buffalo Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friesen, B. [Syncrude Canada Ltd., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    The recently announced oil sands development of the Wood Buffalo Region in Alberta was the focus of this power point presentation. Both mining and in situ development is expected to total $26 billion and 2.6 million barrels per day of bitumen production. This paper described the economic, social and environmental challenges facing the resource development of this region. In addition to the proposed oil sands projects, this region will accommodate the needs of conventional oil and gas production, forestry, building of pipelines and power lines, municipal development, recreation, tourism, mining exploration and open cast mining. The Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) was inaugurated as a non-profit association in April 2000, and includes 41 members from all sectors. Its major role is to ensure a sustainable ecosystem and to avoid any cumulative impacts on wildlife. Other work underway includes the study of soil and plant species diversity, and the effects of air emissions on human health, wildlife and vegetation. The bioaccumulation of heavy metals and their impacts on surface water and fish is also under consideration to ensure the quality and quantity of surface water and ground water. 3 figs.

  19. Cumulative environmental management and the oil sands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    In response to concerns regarding the cumulative environmental impacts of oil sands development within the Athabasca oil sands deposit, the government of Alberta established a Regional Sustainable Development Strategy (RSDS) to balance development with environmental protection. The environmental issues identified through the RSDS were addressed by the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA). CEMA's boundary is the Wood Buffalo region of northeastern Alberta. It identifies existing and future environmental effects in the region and proposes recommendations to regulatory bodies for reducing environmental impacts associated with oil sands development. This presentation outlined some of the 55 stakeholder representatives of CEMA, including Alberta government departments associated with resource development, oil sand developers within the region, and Aboriginal communities and First Nations. These stakeholders provide input on sector priorities and agree on environmental thresholds. Established working groups also address technical and scientific research issues identified in the RSDS such as sustainable ecosystems; surface waters; trace metals and air contaminants; nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxides; and land reclamation. To date, CEMA has submitted more than 50 reports and has made 4 major environmental recommendations for trace metal management, ecosystem management tools, a framework for acid deposition management, and a landscape design checklist. tabs., figs.

  20. Higher Order Cumulants in Colorless Partonic Plasma

    CERN Document Server

    Cherif, S; Ladrem, M

    2016-01-01

    Any physical system considered to study the QCD deconfinement phase transition certainly has a finite volume, so the finite size effects are inevitably present. This renders the location of the phase transition and the determination of its order as an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the colorless QCD deconfinement transition point in finite volume $T_{0}(V)$, a new approach based on the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the $\\mathscr{L}_{m,n}$-Method is used.We have shown that both cumulants of higher order and their ratios, associated to the thermodynamical fluctuations of the order parameter, in QCD deconfinement phase transition behave in a particular enough way revealing pronounced oscillations in the transition region. The sign structure and the oscillatory behavior of these in the vicinity of the deconfinement phase transition point might be a sensitive probe and may allow one to elucidate their relation to the QCD phase...

  1. Relating annual migration from high tuberculosis burden country of origin to changes in foreign-born tuberculosis notification rates in low-medium incidence European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanway, Aidan; Comiskey, Catherine M; Tobin, Katy; O'Toole, Ronan F

    2016-12-01

    The level of immigration from high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries (HBCs) which impacts on the foreign-born TB notification rate is largely unknown. In this work, we performed a cross-sectional analysis of epidemiological data from 2000 to 2013 from nine European countries: Austria, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Crude notification rates were calculated for foreign- and native-born populations and a multiple-linear regression model predicting notification rates with HBC population data was generated. From 2000 to 2013, the population percentage with a foreign birthplace increased on average each year in all nine countries, ranging from +0.11%/year in the Netherlands to +0.66%/year in Spain. An annual increase in HBC migrants above +0.43% per year (95% Confidence Interval: 0.24%-0.63%) corresponded with higher TB notification rates in the foreign-born population of the countries analyzed. This indicates that migration from HBCs can exert a measurable effect on the foreign-born TB notification rate. However, an increase in the foreign-born TB notification rate coincided with an average annual rise in national TB notification rates only in countries, Norway (+3.85%/year) and Sweden (+2.64%/year), which have a high proportion (>80%) of TB cases that are foreign-born.

  2. A Cumulant-based Analysis of Nonlinear Magnetospheric Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jay R. Johnson; Simon Wing

    2004-01-28

    Understanding magnetospheric dynamics and predicting future behavior of the magnetosphere is of great practical interest because it could potentially help to avert catastrophic loss of power and communications. In order to build good predictive models it is necessary to understand the most critical nonlinear dependencies among observed plasma and electromagnetic field variables in the coupled solar wind/magnetosphere system. In this work, we apply a cumulant-based information dynamical measure to characterize the nonlinear dynamics underlying the time evolution of the Dst and Kp geomagnetic indices, given solar wind magnetic field and plasma input. We examine the underlying dynamics of the system, the temporal statistical dependencies, the degree of nonlinearity, and the rate of information loss. We find a significant solar cycle dependence in the underlying dynamics of the system with greater nonlinearity for solar minimum. The cumulant-based approach also has the advantage that it is reliable even in the case of small data sets and therefore it is possible to avoid the assumption of stationarity, which allows for a measure of predictability even when the underlying system dynamics may change character. Evaluations of several leading Kp prediction models indicate that their performances are sub-optimal during active times. We discuss possible improvements of these models based on this nonparametric approach.

  3. Incidence rate and spatio-temporal clustering of type 1 diabetes in Santiago, Chile, from 1997 to 1998 Taxa de incidência e agrupamento espaço-temporal de diabetes tipo 1 em Santiago, Chile, de 1997 a 1998

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JL Santos

    2001-02-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in the urban area of Santiago, Chile, from March 21, 1997 to March 20, 1998, and to assess the spatio-temporal clustering of cases during that period. METHODS: All sixty-one incident cases were located temporally (day of diagnosis and spatially (place of residence in the area of study. Knox's method was used to assess spatio-temporal clustering of incident cases. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate of type 1 diabetes was 4.11 cases per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years per year (95% confidence interval: 3.06--5.14. The incidence rate seems to have increased since the last estimate of the incidence calculated for the years 1986--1992 in the metropolitan region of Santiago. Different combinations of space-time intervals have been evaluated to assess spatio-temporal clustering. The smallest p-value was found for the combination of critical distances of 750 meters and 60 days (uncorrected p-value = 0.048. CONCLUSIONS: Although these are preliminary results regarding space-time clustering in Santiago, exploratory analysis of the data method would suggest a possible aggregation of incident cases in space-time coordinates.OBJETIVO: Estimar a taxa de incidência de diabetes tipo 1 na área urbana de Santiago, Chile, entre os dias 21 de março de 1997 e 20 de março 1998, assim como a avaliação do agrupamento espaço-temporal dos casos incidentes no período. MÉTODOS: Foram localizados 61 casos incidentes no tempo (dia do diagnóstico e no espaço (lugar de residência na área do estudo. O método de Knox foi usado para avaliar o agrupamento dos casos no espaço e no tempo. RESULTADOS: A taxa de diabetes tipo 1 foi estimada em 4,11 casos por 100.000 menores de 15 anos por ano (Intervalo de confiança 95%: 3,06 -- 5,14. Essa taxa de incidência parece ter aumentado desde a última estimativa realizada na região metropolitana de Santiago, nos anos 1986-1992. Foram constru

  4. Suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in children and adolescents with bipolar disorder: a systematic review of prevalence and incidence rates, correlates, and targeted interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Marta; Galling, Britta; Correll, Christoph U

    2013-08-01

    Pediatric bipolar disorder (PBD) is associated with poor outcomes, including suicidal ideation (SI) and suicide attempt (SA). However, frequencies and risk factors of SI/SA and targeted intervention trials for SI/SA in PBD have not been reviewed systematically. We conducted a systematic PubMed review, searching for articles reporting on prevalences/incidences, correlates and intervention studies targeting SI/SA in PBD. Weighted means were calculated, followed by an exploratory meta-regression of SI and SA correlates. Fourteen studies (n = 1595), in which 52.1% of patients were male and the mean age was 14.4 years, reported data on SI/SA prevalence (N = 13, n = 1508) and/or correlates (N = 10, n = 1348) in PBD. Weighted mean prevalences were: past SI = 57.4%, past SA = 21.3%, current SI = 50.4%, and current SA = 25.5%; incidences (mean 42 months of follow-up) were: SI = 14.6% and SA = 14.7%. Regarding significant correlates, SI (N = 3) was associated with a higher percentage of Caucasian race, narrow (as opposed to broad) PBD phenotype, younger age, and higher quality of life than SA. Significant correlates of SA (N = 10) included female sex, older age, earlier illness onset, more severe/episodic PBD, mixed episodes, comorbid disorders, past self-injurious behavior/SI/SA, physical/sexual abuse, parental depression, family history of suicidality, and poor family functioning. Race, socioeconomic status, living situation, and life events were not clearly associated with SA. In a meta-regression analysis, bipolar I disorder and comorbid attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder were significantly associated with SA. Only one open label study targeting the reduction of SI/SA in PBD was identified. SI and SA are very common but under-investigated in PBD. Exploration of predictors and protective factors is imperative for the establishment of effective preventive and intervention strategies, which are urgently needed. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley

  5. Interrater reliability of the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale: rating by neurologists and nurses in a community-based stroke incidence study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewey, H M; Donnan, G A; Freeman, E J; Sharples, C M; Macdonell, R A; McNeil, J J; Thrift, A G

    1999-01-01

    The reliability of the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) for use by trained neurologists in clinical trials of acute stroke has been established in several hospital-based studies. However, it also has the potential for application in community-based settings and to be used by nonneurologists: issues which have not been explored before. Hence, we aimed to determine the reliability of the NIHSS when administered by research nurses within the existing North Eastern Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study. Using the NIHSS, thirty-one consecutively registered stroke patients were assessed by 2 neurologists and 1 of 2 trained research nurses. The interrater reliability of observations was compared using weighted and unweighted kappa statistics and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). There was a high level of agreement for total scores between the 2 neurologists (ICC = 0.95) and between each neurologist and research nurse (ICC = 0.92 and 0.96). While there was moderate to excellent agreement among neurologists and research nurse (weighted kappa > 0.4) for the majority of the NIHSS items, there was poor agreement for the component 'limb ataxia'. Overall, agreement between nurse and neurologist for individual items was not significantly different from agreement between neurologists. It appears that in both hospital and community settings, trained research nurses can administer the NIHSS with a reliability similar to stroke-trained neurologists. This ability could be used to advantage in large community-based trials and epidemiological studies.

  6. 妊娠期营养干预对降低巨大儿发生率和剖宫产率的影响%Effect of nutritional intervention during pregnancy on reducing the incidence rate of macrosomia and cesarean section rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕雁; 苏莉; 邓笑容

    2017-01-01

    Objective To explore the effect of nutritional intervention during pregnancy on reducing the incidence rate of macrosomia and cesarean section rate.Methods A total of 6 150 pregnant women who received maternal health care services in the hospital from January 2013 to October 2016 were randomly selected as observation group.A total of 3 270 pregnant women who did not receive any professional nutritional intervention in the hospital during the same period were selected as control group.Cesarean section rates,the incidence rates of macrosomia,cesarean section rates of macrosomia,and the incidence rates of pregnancy complications in the two groups were compared.Resuits There were statistically significant differences in cesarean section rate,the incidence rate of macrosomia,and cesarean section rate of macrosomia between the two groups (P<0.05).There were statistically significant differences in the incidence rates of premature rupture of membranes,cephalopelvic disproportion,fetal distress,neonatal asphyxia,and postpartum hemorrhage between the two groups (P<0.05).There were statistically significant differences in the incidence rates of hypertensive disorder complicating pregnancy (HDCP) and gestational diabetes mellitus between the two groups.Conclusion Nutritional intervention during pregnancy can significantly reduce the incidence rate of macrosomia,cesarean section rate of macrosomia,incidence rates of pregnancy and delivery complications,so it can significantly improve pregnancy outcomes.%目的 探讨妊娠期营养干预对降低巨大儿发生率和剖宫产率的影响.方法 随机选取2013年1月-2016年10月该院接受孕产妇保健服务的6 150例孕妇作为观察组.另选取同期在该院住院待产的未接受任何专业妊娠期营养干预的3 270例孕妇作为对照组.比较两组孕妇总体剖宫产率、巨大儿发生率、巨大儿剖宫产率及妊娠期合并症发生率等.结果 两组总体剖宫产率、巨大儿发生率

  7. Ion cumulation by conical cathode electrolysis.

    CERN Document Server

    Grishin, V G

    2002-01-01

    Results of solid-state sodium stearate electrolysis with conical and cylindrical cathodes is presented here. Both electric measurement and conical samples destruction can be explained if a stress developing inside the conical sample is much bigger than in the cylindrical case and there is its unlimited amplification along cone slopes. OTHER KEYWORDS: ion, current, solid, symmetry, cumulation, polarization, depolarization, ionic conductor,superionic conductor, ice, crystal, strain, V-center, V-centre, doped crystal, interstitial impurity, intrinsic color center, high pressure technology, Bridgman, anvil, experiment, crowdion, dielectric, proton, layer, defect, lattice, dynamics, electromigration, mobility, muon catalysis, concentration, doping, dopant, conductivity, pycnonuclear reaction, permittivity, dielectric constant, point defects, interstitials, polarizability, imperfection, defect centers, glass, epitaxy, sodium hydroxide, metallic substrate, crystallization, point, tip, susceptibility, ferroelectric, ...

  8. [Cumulative trauma disorders: work or professional disease?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Carvalho, Marcus Vitor Diniz; Cavalcanti, Francisco Ivo Dantas; Soriano, Evelyne Pessoa; de Miranda, Hênio Ferreira

    2009-06-01

    This study aimed at reviewing the Brazilian legislation applied to occupational health. It refers to the diseases embodied in the Repetition Strain Injury (RSI) and Cumulative Trauma Disorders (CTD) regarded as work or professional diseases. This analysis allowed to perform the historical evolution of legislation concerning the issue, noting that the state of the art of regulation on RSI-CTD is anchored in specific regulation present in the Normative Instruction 98/2003, that establishes the diagnostic criteria and classification of RSI-CTD. It was concluded that according to the existing legislation in Brazil, the pathologies related to RSI-CTD are considered as work diseases and their legal effects are similar to the work-related accidents.

  9. Lightning incidents in Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myagmar Doljinsuren

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This is one of the first studies that has been conducted in Mongolia on the distribution of lightning incidents. The study covers a 10-year period from 2004 to 2013. The country records a human death rate of 15.4 deaths per 10 million people per year, which is much higher than that of many countries with similar isokeraunic level. The reason may be the low-grown vegetation observed in most rural areas of Mongolia, a surface topography, typical to steppe climate. We suggest modifications to Gomes–Kadir equation for such countries, as it predicts a much lower annual death rate for Mongolia. The lightning incidents spread over the period from May to August with the peak of the number of incidents occurring in July. The worst lightning affected region in the country is the central part. Compared with impacts of other convective disasters such as squalls, thunderstorms and hail, lightning stands as the second highest in the number of incidents, human deaths and animal deaths. Economic losses due to lightning is only about 1% of the total losses due to the four extreme weather phenomena. However, unless precautionary measures are not promoted among the public, this figure of losses may significantly increase with time as the country is undergoing rapid industrialization at present.

  10. Suicide in Recent Onset Psychosis Revisited: Significant Reduction of Suicide Rate over the Last Two Decades - A Replication Study of a Dutch Incidence Cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stynke Castelein

    Full Text Available This study aims to compare the suicide risk over the past decade following recent onset psychosis to findings from the eighties and nineties in the same catchment area and to identify predictors of suicide in the context of the Psychosis Recent Onset Groningen-Survey (PROGR-S. A medical file search was carried out to determine the current status of all patients admitted between 2000 and 2009. The suicide rate was compared with a study executed in 1973-1988 in the same catchment area. Predictors of suicide were investigated using Cox regression. The status of 424 of the 614 patients was known in July 2014. Suicide occurred in 2.4% of patients with psychosis disorders (n = 10; mean follow-up 5.6 years; 6 out of 10 suicides took place within two years. Within two decades, the suicide rate dropped from 11% (follow-up 15 years, 8.5% after 5 years to 2.4%. The Standardized Mortality Rate (SMR of suicides compared with the general population was 41.6. A higher age was the only significant predictor for suicide. Neuroticism, living situation, disorganized and negative symptoms, and passive coping style all showed a trend for significance. A significant reduction in the suicide rate was found for people with psychosis over the past decades. Given the high SMR, suicide research should be given the highest priority. Identifying predictors may contribute to further reduction of suicide among patients with psychosis.

  11. Clinical effect of intermittent nasal feeding on reducing incidence rates of aspiration pneumonia%间歇鼻饲法降低机械通气患者吸入性肺炎发病的临床研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙丰静

    2012-01-01

    Objective To analyze the effect of treatment of intermittent nasal feeding on reducing incidence rates of aspiration pneumonia.Methods A total of 70 patients with mechanical ventilation were divided randomly into observation group and control group,35 cases were in each group.Patients in observation group were given nutrition of intermittent nasal feeding with treatment of massage in a clockwise direction.Absolutely nutrition by nose feeding was given in control group.Results Incidence rates ofvomiting,gastroesophageal reflux,cough,suffocation,diarrhea,aspiration pneumonia in observation were lower than those in control group. Conclusions Treatment of intermittent nasal feeding with treatment of massage may reduce incidence rate of aspiration pneumonia.%目的 探讨机械通气患者间歇鼻饲和持续鼻饲与吸入性肺炎的关系.方法 将70例机械通气患者随机分为观察组和对照组各35例,观察组输入营养液采用间歇鼻饲,每次鼻饲1h后由护士于腹部顺结肠方向间歇性环形按摩,对照组采用持续鼻饲.结果 观察组的呕吐、返流、呛咳、憋闷、腹泻、吸入性肺炎的发生率低于对照组.结论 对接受机械通气的患者进行肠内营养支持时,采用间歇鼻饲对减少吸入性肺炎发生明显优于持续鼻饲.

  12. 心房颤动导管消融相关无症状脑梗塞发生率Meta分析%Meta-analysis for the Incidence Rate of Asymptomatic Cerebral Embolism in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation After Catheter Ablation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    韩全乐; 王桂苹; 刘书旺; 刘晓堃; 张琦; 张华; 王晓晓

    2015-01-01

      结论:房颤导管消融相关无症状脑梗塞发生率处在一个较高水平,是房颤导管消融以降低栓塞事件过程中必须面对的一个严峻问题,应得到更多关注,并采取相应的干预措施。%Objective: To generally assess the incidence rate of asymptomatic cerebral embolism in patients with atrial ifbrillation (AF) after catheter ablation by Meta-analysis in order to provide the basic information for cerebral embolism prevention. Methods: We systemically searched the publications of PubMed, Springer, Elsevier-SDOL, EMbase, SSCI, VIP, Chinese biomedical literature database (CBM), Chinese journal full-text database (CNKI), Wanfang data resource, Chinese outstanding master’s degree thesis database and Chinese important articles published in full-text database from 2006 to 2014 for the literatures regarding the asymptomatic cerebral embolism in AF patients after catheter ablation. The literature quality was evaluated by Loney criteria, Meta-analysis was conducted by R software to assess the incidence rate of asymptomatic cerebral embolism after ablation, the impact of type and quality for research were estimated by sensitivity analysis. Results: A total of 16 qualiifed literatures were enrolled in our research with 1258 patients. The incidence rate of asymptomatic cerebral embolism in AF patients after ablation was 17.46% (95% CI 13.13% - 22.84%). The sensitivity analysis indicated that excluding the literature at the lowest quality and the literature only with the part of age group, the Meta-analysis result had no obvious changes. Conclusion: The asymptomatic cerebral embolism in AF patients after ablation is at a relatively high prevalence condition, it should be seriously emphasized and with the active intervention in clinical practice.

  13. 狂犬病发病率增高原因剖析及护理对策%Cause analysis of and nursing strategies for the increased incidence rate of Rabies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    冉海燕

    2012-01-01

    目的 分析狂犬病发病率上升因素,探讨有效预防途径.方法 回顾性分析护理34例狂犬病患者的临床资料,总结加强狂犬病预防工作的相关对策.结果 95.26%的病例被犬致伤感染,潜伏期3周~2月,未接种疫苗病例死亡率100%.结论 狂犬病发病率近年来又呈增高趋势,加强以健康教育为主的综合性护理是控制狂犬病发病率上升的主要预防措施.%Objective To analyze the causes of increased incidence rate of rabies and explore effective preventive measures. Methods The clinical data of 34 rabies patients were retrospectively analyzed and related countermeasures for rabies prevention were also summarized. Results 95. 26% of rabies patients led to infection with an incubation period of 3 weeks to 2 months,and a 100% mortality rate was found when no vaccination was conducted. Conclusion The incidence rate of rabies tend to increase in recent years. Thus comprehensive nursing based on health education is the main preventive measure to control it.

  14. Presence of animal feeding operations and community socioeconomic factors impact salmonellosis incidence rates: An ecological analysis using data from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), 2004-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Kristi S; Cruz-Cano, Raul; Jiang, Chengsheng; Malayil, Leena; Blythe, David; Ryan, Patricia; Sapkota, Amy R

    2016-10-01

    Nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. are a leading cause of foodborne illness. Risk factors for salmonellosis include the consumption of contaminated chicken, eggs, pork and beef. Agricultural, environmental and socioeconomic factors also have been associated with rates of Salmonella infection. However, to our knowledge, these factors have not been modeled together at the community-level to improve our understanding of whether rates of salmonellosis are variable across communities defined by differing factors. To address this knowledge gap, we obtained data on culture-confirmed Salmonella Typhimurium, S. Enteritidis, S. Newport and S. Javiana cases (2004-2010; n=14,297) from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), and socioeconomic, environmental and agricultural data from the 2010 Census of Population and Housing, the 2011 American Community Survey, and the 2007 U.S. Census of Agriculture. We linked data by zip code and derived incidence rate ratios using negative binomial regressions. Multiple community-level factors were associated with salmonellosis rates; however, our findings varied by state. For example, in Georgia (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR)=1.01; 95% Confidence Interval (CI)=1.005-1.015) Maryland (IRR=1.01; 95% CI=1.003-1.015) and Tennessee (IRR=1.01; 95% CI=1.002-1.012), zip codes characterized by greater rurality had higher rates of S. Newport infections. The presence of broiler chicken operations, dairy operations and cattle operations in a zip code also was associated with significantly higher rates of infection with at least one serotype in states that are leading producers of these animal products. For instance, in Georgia and Tennessee, rates of S. Enteritidis infection were 48% (IRR=1.48; 95% CI=1.12-1.95) and 46% (IRR=1.46; 95% CI=1.17-1.81) higher in zip codes with broiler chicken operations compared to those without these operations. In Maryland, New Mexico and Tennessee, higher poverty levels in zip codes were associated with

  15. 高龄老人代谢综合征的发病率及危险因素分析%Analysis of incidence rate and risk factors of metabolic syndrome in the oldest old

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林娟; 黄绍宽; 陈智超; 黄利红

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To study incidence rate and risk factors of metabolic syndrome (MS) in the oldest old. Methods: A total of 229 patients admitted in our home for the aged in May 2010 were divided into oldest old group (n = 126, ≥80 years old) and non-oldest old group (n= 103, 60~79 years old). Measurements were performed on blood glucose, blood lipids, blood uric acid, height, weight, waist circumference and hip circumference, and general clinical data were recorded in all patients. Results: Compared with non-oldest old group, there were significant increase in incidence rates of diabetes mellitus (18.4% vs. 36.5%), hypertension (28.2% vs. 54.0%), hyperlipidemia (33. 0% vs. 57.1%) and obesity (27.2% vs. 46.8%) in oldest old group, P<0. 01 alls incidence rate of MS in oldest old group was significantly higher than that of non-oldest old group (34.9% vs. 17. 5%, P = 0. 0031). Conclusion: Incidence rate of metabolic syndrome in oldest old is higher than that of non-oldest old.%目的:探讨高龄老人代谢综合征(MS)患者的发病率及危险因素分析.方法:于2010年5月对在我院养老的229例患者,分为高龄组(≥80岁,126例)和非高龄组(60~79岁,103例),测定其血糖、血脂、血压、血尿酸、身高、体重、腰围和臀围,记录其一般临床资料.结果:与非高龄组比较,高龄组糖尿病(18.4%比36.5%)、高血压(28.2%比54.0%)、高血脂症(33.0%比57.1%)、肥胖(27.2%比46.8%)发生率均明显升高(P均<0.01);高龄组MS发生率明显高于非高龄组(34.9%比17.5%,P=0.0031).结论:高龄老人代谢综合征发生率较非高龄老人高.

  16. 江苏省海安县2010年居民恶性肿瘤发病率及死亡率分析%Analysis of cancer incidence and mortality in 2010 to the residents of Hai'an county, Jiangsu Province,China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaojian Wang; Haifeng Liu; Jinlian Wei; Lin Li; Xiaobin Cao

    2013-01-01

    Objective: The aim of the study was to analyze the incidence, mortality and their impact factors and changing trends of malignant tumors in 2010 in the residents of Hai'an county, Jiangsu Province, China. Methods: Using the information of incidence, death registration information database and population data of malignant tumors in 2010 in the residents of Hai'an county, the incidence, mortality, accumulation incidence rates, and truncated incidence rate of malignant tumors were statistically analyzed. Results: The crude incidence, China standardized and world standardized incidence rates of malignant tumors in 2010 in Hai'an county were 281.53 per 100 000 persons, 174.96 per 100 000 persons, and 175.14 per 100 000 persons, respectively. The cumulative incidence rate from aged 0 to 64 years, the cumulative incidence rate from aged 0 to 74 years and the truncated incidence rate from aged 35 to 64 years were 6.85%, 15.39%, and 193.26 per 100 000 persons, respectively. The rough mortality rate, China standardized and world standardized incidence rates were 234.11 per 100 000 persons, 145.30 per 100 000 persons, and 144.77 per 100 000 persons, respectively. The top five cancers in the spectrum of cancer incidence were respectively esophageal cancer, lung cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, and colorectal cancer. The top four cancers in the spectrum of cancer death were consistent with the spectrum of cancer incidence. The 5th cancer in the spectrum of cancer death was pancreatic cancer. The incidence and mortality of various age groups were at a low level before 35-year-old age group. The incidence of female was slightly higher than that of male. But the incidence and mortality from the age group of 50 showed "uddenly"upward trend with age. The incidence and mortality of male were significantly higher than those of female. The ratios of male to female of incidence and mortality were 1.52:1 and 1.67:1, respectively. Conclusion: Residents over the age of 50, especially

  17. Exploring the recent trend in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence and mortality using comparative simulation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Chung Yin; Kroep, Sonja; Curtius, Kit; Hazelton, William D; Jeon, Jihyoun; Meza, Rafael; Heberle, Curtis R; Miller, Melecia C; Choi, Sung Eun; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Feuer, Eric J; Inadomi, John M; Hur, Chin; Luebeck, E Georg

    2014-06-01

    The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has increased five-fold in the United States since 1975. The aim of our study was to estimate future U.S. EAC incidence and mortality and to shed light on the potential drivers in the disease process that are conduits for the dramatic increase in EAC incidence. A consortium of three research groups calibrated independent mathematical models to clinical and epidemiologic data including EAC incidence from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER 9) registry from 1975 to 2010. We then used a comparative modeling approach to project EAC incidence and mortality to year 2030. Importantly, all three models identified birth cohort trends affecting cancer progression as a major driver of the observed increases in EAC incidence and mortality. All models predict that incidence and mortality rates will continue to increase until 2030 but with a plateauing trend for recent male cohorts. The predicted ranges of incidence and mortality rates (cases per 100,000 person years) in 2030 are 8.4 to 10.1 and 5.4 to 7.4, respectively, for males, and 1.3 to 1.8 and 0.9 to 1.2 for females. Estimates of cumulative cause-specific EAC deaths between both sexes for years 2011 to 2030 range between 142,300 and 186,298, almost double the number of deaths in the past 20 years. Through comparative modeling, the projected increases in EAC cases and deaths represent a critical public health concern that warrants attention from cancer control planners to prepare potential interventions. Quantifying this burden of disease will aid health policy makers to plan appropriate cancer control measures. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 23(6); 997-1006. ©2014 AACR. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

  18. Rate of ectasia and incidence of irregular topography in patients with unidentified preoperative risk factors undergoing femtosecond laser-assisted LASIK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moshirfar M

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Majid Moshirfar,1 Jared G Smedley,2 Valliammai Muthappan,1 Allison Jarsted,3 Erik M Ostler1 1John A Moran Eye Center, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; 2College of Human Medicine, Michigan State University, Lansing, MI, USA; 3Department of Ophthalmology, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY, USA Purpose: To report the rate of postoperative ectasia after laser-assisted in situ keratomileusis (LASIK with femtosecond laser-assisted flap creation, in a population of patients with no identified preoperative risk factors. Methods: A retrospective case review of 1,992 eyes (1,364 patients treated between March 2007 and January 2009 was conducted, with a follow up of over 4 years. After identifying cases of ectasia, all the patient charts were examined retrospectively for preoperative findings suggestive of forme fruste keratoconus (FFKC. Results: Five eyes of four patients with post-LASIK ectasia were identified. All eyes passed preoperative screening and received bilateral LASIK. One of the five patients developed ectasia in both eyes. Three patients retrospectively revealed preoperative topography suggestive of FFKC, while one patient had no identifiable preoperative risk factors. Upon review of all the charts, a total 69 eyes, including four of the five eyes with ectasia, were retrospectively found to have topographies suggestive of FFKC. Conclusion: We identified four cases of post-LASIK ectasia that had risk factors for FFKC on reexamination of the chart and one case of post-LASIK ectasia with no identifiable preoperative risk factors. The most conservative screening recommendations would not have precluded this patient from LASIK. The rate of purely iatrogenic post-LASIK ectasia at our center was 0.05% (1/1,992, and the total rate of post-LASIK ectasia for our entire study was 0.25% (1/398. The rate of eyes with unrecognized preoperative FFKC that developed post-LASIK ectasia was 5.8% (1/17. Keywords

  19. 东台市8560名学龄前儿童肥胖发病率及原因分析%Incidence Rate and Cause Analysis of Dongtai 8560 Preschool Children Obesity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    仲爱梅

    2015-01-01

    目的:了解东台市学龄前儿童单纯性肥胖的发病率及主要的影响因素进行分析。方法对东台市22所幼儿园8560名3~6岁学龄前儿童应用身高别体重法筛选出肥胖儿童,计算肥胖发病率,并对肥胖影响因素进行分析。结果东台市学龄前儿童肥胖患病率为8.98%,其中男童9.72%,女童7.98%;3~6岁儿童肥胖发生率随年龄的升高而上升。儿童肥胖的发生与高出生体重、人工喂养、静坐时间长、父母肥胖、不良饮食习惯、家庭高收入等有关。结论儿童肥胖患病率较高,要加强对孕妇、儿童家长和儿童的健康教育,降低肥胖发生率,提高人口素质。%Objective To analyze incidence rates and the main influence factors of dongtai preschool children simple obesity. Methods 22 kindergartens in dongtai 8560 preschool children with obesity aged 3~ 6 years were screened and analyzing incidence rates and the main influence factors of dongtai preschool children simple obesity. Results Dongtai preschool children obesity prevalence was 8.98%, the boy was 9.72%, and the girls was 7.98%; With the increase of age 3 ~ 6 years old child obesity rates rise, The occur ence of obesity in children with high birth weight, artificial feeding, over a long period of time, parents obesity, poor diet, high household income and so on. Conclusion The incidence of childhood obesity is higher, must strengthen the education to the health of pregnant women, children, parents and children, reduce the incidence of obesity, improving population quality.

  20. Long and Short Term Cumulative Structural Priming Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaschak, Michael P; Kutta, Timothy J; Coyle, Jacqueline M

    We present six experiments that examine cumulative structural priming effects (i.e., structural priming effects that accumulate across many utterances). Of particular interest is whether (1) cumulative priming effects transfer across language production tasks and (2) the transfer of cumulative priming effects across tasks persists over the course of a week. Our data suggest that cumulative structural priming effects do transfer across language production tasks (e.g., from written stem completion to picture description, and from picture description to written stem completion), but only when both tasks are presented in the same experimental session. When cumulative priming effects are established in one task, and the second (changed) task is not presented until a week later, the cumulative priming effects are not observed.

  1. Why Veterinary Medical Educators Should Embrace Cumulative Final Exams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royal, Kenneth D

    2017-01-03

    The topic of cumulative final examinations often elicits polarizing opinions from veterinary medical educators. While some faculty prefer cumulative finals, there are many who perceive these types of examinations as problematic. Specifically, faculty often cite cumulative examinations are more likely to cause students' greater stress, which may in turn result in negative student evaluations of teaching. Cumulative finals also restrict the number of items one may present to students on most recent material. While these cited disadvantages may have some merit, the advantages of cumulative examinations far exceed the disadvantages. The purpose of this article is to discuss the advantages of cumulative examinations with respect to learning evidence, grade/score validity, fairness issues, and implications for academic policy.

  2. Foodborne Illness Incidence Rates and Food Safety Risks for Populations of Low Socioeconomic Status and Minority Race/Ethnicity: A Review of the Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer J. Quinlan

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available While foodborne illness is not traditionally tracked by race, ethnicity or income, analyses of reported cases have found increased rates of some foodborne illnesses among minority racial/ethnic populations. In some cases (Listeria, Yersinia increased rates are due to unique food consumption patterns, in other cases (Salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter it is unclear why this health disparity exists. Research on safe food handling knowledge and behaviors among low income and minority consumers suggest that there may be a need to target safe food handling messages to these vulnerable populations. Another possibility is that these populations are receiving food that is less safe at the level of the retail outlet or foodservice facility. Research examining the quality and safety of food available at small markets in the food desert environment indicates that small corner markets face unique challenges which may affect the quality and potential safety of perishable food. Finally, a growing body of research has found that independent ethnic foodservice facilities may present increased risks for foodborne illness. This review of the literature will examine the current state of what is known about foodborne illness among, and food safety risks for, minority and low socioeconomic populations, with an emphasis on the United States and Europe.

  3. Treatment of Stages I and II cancer of the cervix: analysis of 5 year survival and recurrence rates. [Effects of surgery an incidence of complications following radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tavares, M.A.; da Conceicao Belo, M.; Santos, M.

    1979-03-01

    Eight hundred and thirty five patients with a diagnosis of Stages I or II carcinoma of the cervix were treated from 2 January 1965 to 30 June 1971. The purpose of this study was to calculate the 5 year survival rates and to analyze the treatment failures according to the modality of treatment applied. Two series of Stages Ib and IIa patients were available; one group was treated with radiotherapy, and the other with radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy after previous intracavitary radiumtherapy. No statistically significant difference was found in the 5 year survival of both groups. Most Stage IIb patients were treated with radiotherapy. When residual tumor was found in the uterus of a patients who underwent radical surgery after intracavitary radiumtherapy it did not influence survival. On the other hand, the presence of metastatic pelvic lymph nodes after intracavitary radium treatment was related to a lowered survival rate. The number of severe injuries was higher in patients who were treated surgically. Recurrences developed within 5 years after completion of treatment in 10.8% of Stage Ib patients, 21.5% of Stage IIa patients, and 34.5% of Stage IIb patients. Ninety per cent of these recurrences appeared within 3 years after therapy.

  4. Spatial analysis of incidence of cutaneous melanoma in the Friuli Venezia Giulia region in the period 1995-2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Cecconi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Incidence distribution of cutaneous melanoma depends on phenotypic characteristics of population and geographic location. In Italy, in the period 1999-2003 Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG region had the second highest incidence rates for males and the third for females. We analysed melanoma and lip cancer incidence data of the FVG cancer registry for the period 1995-2005. We used Bayesian hierarchical spatial models to describe the spatial pattern by gender. We decomposed the geographical distribution of the risk in two parts: a component linked to chronic exposure and a component related to intermittent exposure. In order to model the chronic component we considered the geographical distribution of incidence cases of lip cancer, for which chronic occupational solar radiation exposure is a documented risk factor. We also analysed the distribution by site and we calculated standardised rates for body surface area. This study documents a significant gradient in the incidence of cutaneous melanoma in FVG. Highstandardisedincidence rates are present in the area of Trieste and in the coastal area. The descriptive analysis by age group and by site, showed risks associated with intermittent exposures in both genders. For the coastal area the risk is especially high for sites traditionally linked to high cumulative exposures (face and neck, especially among men. The results suggest diagnostic preventive interventions in the populations living in the area of Trieste, given the high rates observed in the young age groups.

  5. Cumulative Incidence of Osteochondritis Dissecans of the Capitellum in Child and Adolescent Baseball Players

    OpenAIRE

    Iwame, Toshiyuki; Matsuura, Tetsuya; Suzue, Naoto; Sairyo, Koichi

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Prevalence of osteochondritis dissecans (OCD) of the capitellum is high among individuals who have played baseball since childhood. Recently two cross-sectional studies according to prevalence of OCD have been published. In a study of 1040 baseball players aged 10 to 12 years, Matsuura et al found that 2.1% of players had OCD, with no differences in prevalence according to age or player position. Kida et al., in their study of 2433 baseball players aged 12 to 18 years, found OCD i...

  6. Stagewise pseudo-value regression for time-varying effects on the cumulative incidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zöller, Daniela; Schmidtmann, Irene; Weinmann, Arndt

    2016-01-01

    using a pseudo-value approach. For a grid of time points, the possibly unobserved binary event status is replaced by a jackknife pseudo-value based on the Aalen-Johansen method. We combine a stagewise regression technique with the pseudo-value approach to provide variable selection while allowing...

  7. Regression Modeling of Competing Risks Data Based on Pseudovalues of the Cumulative Incidence Function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klein, John P.; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2005-01-01

    Bone marrow transplantation; Generalized estimating equations; Jackknife statistics; Regression models......Bone marrow transplantation; Generalized estimating equations; Jackknife statistics; Regression models...

  8. Analysis of experimental data on correlations between cumulative particles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vlasov, A.V.; Doroshkevich, E.A.; Leksin, G.A. [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Physics, Moscow (Russian Federation)] [and others

    1995-04-01

    Experimental data on correlations between cumulative particles are analyzed. A space-time and energy-transfer pattern of hadron-nucleus interaction based on both correlation data and data on the inclusive spectra of cumulative particles is considered. A new variable that is convenient for describing the production of cumulative particles is proposed using the concept of symmetry between the one-particle and multiparticle distributions. 32 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  9. Estrogen and colorectal cancer incidence and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavasani, Sayeh; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Prentice, Ross L; Kato, Ikuko; Wactawski-Wende, Jean; Johnson, Karen C; Young, Alicia; Rodabough, Rebecca; Hubbell, F Allan; Mahinbakht, Ali; Simon, Michael S

    2015-09-15

    The preponderance of observational studies describe an association between the use of estrogen alone and a lower incidence of colorectal cancer. In contrast, no difference in the incidence of colorectal cancer was seen in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) randomized, placebo-controlled trial with estrogen alone after a mean intervention of 7.1 years and cumulative follow-up of 13.2 years. This study extends these findings by providing detailed analyses of the effects of estrogen alone on the histology, grade, and stage of colorectal cancer, relevant subgroups, and deaths from and after colorectal cancer. The WHI study was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving 10,739 postmenopausal women with prior hysterectomy. Participants were assigned to conjugated equine estrogen at 0.625 mg/d (n = 5279) or a matching placebo (n = 5409). Rates of colorectal cancer diagnoses and deaths from and after colorectal cancer were assessed throughout the study. Colorectal cancer rates in the estrogen-alone and placebo groups were comparable: 0.14% and 0.12% per year, respectively (hazard ratio [HR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83-1.58; P = .43). Bowel screening examinations were comparable between the 2 groups throughout the study. The grade, stage, and location of colorectal cancer did not differ between the randomization groups. There were more colorectal cancer deaths in the estrogen-alone group (34 [0.05%] vs 24 [0.03%]; HR, 1.46, 95% CI, 0.86-2.46; P = .16), but the difference was not statistically significant. The colorectal cancer incidence was higher for participants with a history of colon polyp removal in the estrogen-alone group (0.23% vs 0.02%; HR, 13.47; nominal 95% CI, 1.76-103.0; P colorectal cancer or deaths from or after colorectal cancer. A possibly higher risk of colorectal cancer in women with prior colon polyp removal who use estrogen alone requires confirmation. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

  10. Analysis of Memory Codes and Cumulative Rehearsal in Observational Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandura, Albert; And Others

    1974-01-01

    The present study examined the influence of memory codes varying in meaningfulness and retrievability and cumulative rehearsal on retention of observationally learned responses over increasing temporal intervals. (Editor)

  11. Continuously Cumulating Meta-Analysis and Replicability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braver, Sanford L; Thoemmes, Felix J; Rosenthal, Robert

    2014-05-01

    The current crisis in scientific psychology about whether our findings are irreproducible was presaged years ago by Tversky and Kahneman (1971), who noted that even sophisticated researchers believe in the fallacious Law of Small Numbers-erroneous intuitions about how imprecisely sample data reflect population phenomena. Combined with the low power of most current work, this often leads to the use of misleading criteria about whether an effect has replicated. Rosenthal (1990) suggested more appropriate criteria, here labeled the continuously cumulating meta-analytic (CCMA) approach. For example, a CCMA analysis on a replication attempt that does not reach significance might nonetheless provide more, not less, evidence that the effect is real. Alternatively, measures of heterogeneity might show that two studies that differ in whether they are significant might have only trivially different effect sizes. We present a nontechnical introduction to the CCMA framework (referencing relevant software), and then explain how it can be used to address aspects of replicability or more generally to assess quantitative evidence from numerous studies. We then present some examples and simulation results using the CCMA approach that show how the combination of evidence can yield improved results over the consideration of single studies.

  12. Impacto del nivel de producción, estación de parto y el tipo de servicio sobre la tasa de preñez acumulada a 100 días en vacas lecheras en la Argentina Impact of the production level, calving season and type of service on the 100-day cumulative pregnancy rate of dairy cows in Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Piccardi

    2011-12-01

    -management. This software has a production estimator called 305 mature equivalent to standardize records from different lactation numbers. The analyzed variables in the model were statistically significant. Cows of lower milk production have more chances to get pregnant than those with higher milk production. Cows that calves in colder seasons have more probabilities to get pregnant than those calves in hottest seasons. The relation was quadratic between the probability of getting pregnant at 100 days in milk and the number of lactation. The cumulative pregnancy rate at 100 days was greater with natural service, compared to AI but, the AI was related with greater levels of milk production. Therefore, the results suggest that new reproductive management designs specifically developed for given productive levels could increase the overall reproductive efficiency.

  13. Economic and policy implications of the cumulative carbon budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E. L.; Otto, A.; Hepburn, C.

    2014-12-01

    The importance of cumulative carbon emissions in determining long-term risks of climate change presents considerable challenges to policy makers. The traditional notion of "total CO2-equivalent emissions", which forms the backbone of agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the European Emissions Trading System, is fundamentally flawed. Measures to reduce short-lived climate pollutants benefit the current generation, while measures to reduce long-lived climate pollutants benefit future generations, so there is no sense in which they can ever be considered equivalent. Debates over the correct metric used to compute CO2-equivalence are thus entirely moot: both long-lived and short-lived emissions will need to be addressed if all generations are to be protected from dangerous climate change. As far as long-lived climate pollutants are concerned, the latest IPCC report highlights the overwhelming importance of carbon capture and storage in determining the cost of meeting the goal of limiting anthropogenic warming to two degrees. We will show that this importance arises directly from the cumulative carbon budget and the role of CCS as the technology of last resort before economic activity needs to be restricted to meet ambitious climate targets. It highlights the need to increase the rate of CCS deployment by orders of magnitude if the option of avoiding two degrees is to be retained. The difficulty of achieving this speed of deployment through conventional incentives and carbon-pricing mechanisms suggests a need for a much more direct mandatory approach. Despite their theoretical economic inefficiency, the success of recent regulatory measures in achieving greenhouse gas emissions reductions in jurisdictions such as the United States suggests an extension of the regulatory approach could be a more effective and politically acceptable means of achieving adequately rapid CCS deployment than conventional carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems.

  14. 乙型肝炎发病趋势的GM(1,1)模型预测%Analyzing the Trend of Hepatitis B Incidence Rate with Grey Dynamic Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴昊澄; 徐旭卿; 王臻; 曾蓓蓓; 鲁琴宝; 何凡; 刘碧瑶; 赵艳荣

    2011-01-01

    Objective