WorldWideScience

Sample records for cumulative incidence functions

  1. Dynamic prediction of cumulative incidence functions by direct binomial regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grand, Mia K; de Witte, Theo J M; Putter, Hein

    2018-03-25

    In recent years there have been a series of advances in the field of dynamic prediction. Among those is the development of methods for dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function in a competing risk setting. These models enable the predictions to be updated as time progresses and more information becomes available, for example when a patient comes back for a follow-up visit after completing a year of treatment, the risk of death, and adverse events may have changed since treatment initiation. One approach to model the cumulative incidence function in competing risks is by direct binomial regression, where right censoring of the event times is handled by inverse probability of censoring weights. We extend the approach by combining it with landmarking to enable dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function. The proposed models are very flexible, as they allow the covariates to have complex time-varying effects, and we illustrate how to investigate possible time-varying structures using Wald tests. The models are fitted using generalized estimating equations. The method is applied to bone marrow transplant data and the performance is investigated in a simulation study. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  2. Nonparametric Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Functions for Competing Risks Data with Missing Cause of Failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Effraimidis, Georgios; Dahl, Christian Møller

    In this paper, we develop a fully nonparametric approach for the estimation of the cumulative incidence function with Missing At Random right-censored competing risks data. We obtain results on the pointwise asymptotic normality as well as the uniform convergence rate of the proposed nonparametric...

  3. Improved visual function in IDDM patients with unchanged cumulative incidence of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rossing, K; Jacobsen, P; Rossing, P

    1998-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate trends in visual acuity and the cumulative incidence of diabetic retinopathy in a clinic-based observational follow-up study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: All patients visiting Hvidore Hospital in 1984 whose diagnosis of IDDM had been made before 41 years of age and between...

  4. Cumulative Incidence Function in Studies on the Duration of the Unemployment Exit Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bieszk-Stolorz Beata

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available When we analyse the employment seeking process, an event that ends the observation of a given individual is their employment. The remaining observations are considered to be censored: the observations concluded before the end of the study or the cases of deregistering for other causes (e.g. old-age pension, taking up residence in a foreign country, starting further education. The act of taking up income-generating work can take various forms: taking up a job, setting up a business or taking advantage of subsidised job programmes. Jobseekers are often deregistered from poviat labour offices because they refuse to take up an offered job or fail to report to the office in due time. All the above events are forms of competing risk. The purpose of this paper is to use the cumulative incidence function to assess the probability of the unemployment exit with regard to different types of the competing risk. When competing-risk events occur, a solution sometimes is used where the remaining endpoint events are considered censored observations. Such a solution leads to an overestimation of probability. The results implicate that the beneficiaries’ will to find employment was not a principal reason for a registering decision. The study is based on the individual data of jobseekers registered in the Poviat Labour Office in Szczecin.

  5. Smooth semi-nonparametric (SNP) estimation of the cumulative incidence function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duc, Anh Nguyen; Wolbers, Marcel

    2017-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to estimation of the cumulative incidence function in the presence of competing risks. The underlying statistical model is specified via a mixture factorization of the joint distribution of the event type and the time to the event. The time to event distributions conditional on the event type are modeled using smooth semi-nonparametric densities. One strength of this approach is that it can handle arbitrary censoring and truncation while relying on mild parametric assumptions. A stepwise forward algorithm for model estimation and adaptive selection of smooth semi-nonparametric polynomial degrees is presented, implemented in the statistical software R, evaluated in a sequence of simulation studies, and applied to data from a clinical trial in cryptococcal meningitis. The simulations demonstrate that the proposed method frequently outperforms both parametric and nonparametric alternatives. They also support the use of 'ad hoc' asymptotic inference to derive confidence intervals. An extension to regression modeling is also presented, and its potential and challenges are discussed. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability: Marginal and Cause-Specific Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2005-01-01

    cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling......cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling...

  7. Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability by Direct Binomial Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard......Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard...

  8. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

  9. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  10. Nonimmunogenic hyperthyroidism: Cumulative hypothyroidism incidence after radioiodine and surgical treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinser, J.A.; Roesler, H.; Furrer, T.; Gruetter, D.Z.; Zimmermann, H.

    1989-01-01

    During 1977, 246 hyperthyroid patients were seen in our departments, 140 (57%) with nonimmunogenic hyperthyroidism (NIH)--101 with a toxic adenoma (TA) and 39 with multifocal functional autonomy (MFA). All patients but one could be followed over 9 yr, 101 after 131I treatment (RIT), another 29 after surgery (S). Ten patients were left untreated. Thirty-four treated (24%) patients died, none as a result of thyroid or post-treatment complications. There was no hyperthyroidism later than 9 mo after therapy. Only 1% (RIT) and 24% (S) were hypothyroid 1 yr after treatment. But 19% of all treated NIH patients were hypothyroid after 9 yr or at the time of their death, 12% after RIT and 41% after S. The cumulative hypothyroidism incidences 1.4%/yr for RIT and 2.2%/yr for S, were not significantly different. Out of the five survivers without RIT or S, two TA patients were hypothyroid. The effect of RIT on goiter related loco-regional complications was not worse than after S. We conclude that RIT is the treatment for NIH, leaving surgery for exceptional cases

  11. County-level cumulative environmental quality associated with cancer incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagai, Jyotsna S; Messer, Lynne C; Rappazzo, Kristen M; Gray, Christine L; Grabich, Shannon C; Lobdell, Danelle T

    2017-08-01

    Individual environmental exposures are associated with cancer development; however, environmental exposures occur simultaneously. The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) is a county-level measure of cumulative environmental exposures that occur in 5 domains. The EQI was linked to county-level annual age-adjusted cancer incidence rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program state cancer profiles. All-site cancer and the top 3 site-specific cancers for male and female subjects were considered. Incident rate differences (IRDs; annual rate difference per 100,000 persons) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using fixed-slope, random intercept multilevel linear regression models. Associations were assessed with domain-specific indices and analyses were stratified by rural/urban status. Comparing the highest quintile/poorest environmental quality with the lowest quintile/best environmental quality for overall EQI, all-site county-level cancer incidence rate was positively associated with poor environmental quality overall (IRD, 38.55; 95% CI, 29.57-47.53) and for male (IRD, 32.60; 95% CI, 16.28-48.91) and female (IRD, 30.34; 95% CI, 20.47-40.21) subjects, indicating a potential increase in cancer incidence with decreasing environmental quality. Rural/urban stratified models demonstrated positive associations comparing the highest with the lowest quintiles for all strata, except the thinly populated/rural stratum and in the metropolitan/urbanized stratum. Prostate and breast cancer demonstrated the strongest positive associations with poor environmental quality. We observed strong positive associations between the EQI and all-site cancer incidence rates, and associations differed by rural/urban status and environmental domain. Research focusing on single environmental exposures in cancer development may not address the broader environmental context in which cancers develop, and future research should address cumulative environmental

  12. The proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Frank; Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    We suggest an estimator for the proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks data. The key advantage of this model is that the regression parameters have the simple and useful odds ratio interpretation. The model has been considered by many authors, but it is rarely used...... in practice due to the lack of reliable estimation procedures. We suggest such procedures and show that their performance improve considerably on existing methods. We also suggest a goodness-of-fit test for the proportional odds assumption. We derive the large sample properties and provide estimators...

  13. Cumulative percent energy deposition of photon beam incident on different targets, simulated by Monte Carlo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandic, A.; Jevremovic, T.; Boreli, F.

    1989-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulation (without secondary radiation) of the standard photon interactions (Compton scattering, photoelectric absorption and pair protection) for the complex slab's geometry is used in numerical code ACCA. A typical ACCA run will yield: (a) transmission of primary photon radiation differential in energy, (b) the spectrum of energy deposited in the target as a function of position and (c) the cumulative percent energy deposition as a function of position. A cumulative percent energy deposition of photon monoenergetic beam incident on simplest and complexity tissue slab and Fe slab are presented in this paper. (author). 5 refs.; 2 figs

  14. Cumulative incidence and prevalence of childhood autism in children in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honda, H; Shimizu, Y; Misumi, K; Niimi, M; Ohashi, Y

    1996-08-01

    An epidemiological survey of childhood autism as defined in ICD-10 Research Criteria was conducted in the northern part of Yokohama, Japan. The routine health checkup for 18-month-old children served as the initial mass-screening, and all facilities which provide child care services function to detect all cases with childhood autism and refer them to the Yokohama Rehabilitation Centre. Cumulative incidence of childhood autism up to 5 years of age among the birth cohort of 1988, and prevalence on 1 January 1994, among residents born in 1988 were estimated Cumulative incidence and prevalence were 16.2 per 10,000 and 21.1 per 10,000, respectively. Children with high-functioning autism who had IQs of 70 and over constituted approximately half of all the children with childhood autism. CONCLUSION. It was confirmed through better detection of high-functioning cases that childhood autism in Japan is more common than formerly estimated.

  15. Stagewise pseudo-value regression for time-varying effects on the cumulative incidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zöller, Daniela; Schmidtmann, Irene; Weinmann, Arndt

    2016-01-01

    In a competing risks setting, the cumulative incidence of an event of interest describes the absolute risk for this event as a function of time. For regression analysis, one can either choose to model all competing events by separate cause-specific hazard models or directly model the association...... for time-varying effects. This is implemented by coupling variable selection between the grid times, but determining estimates separately. The effect estimates are regularized to also allow for model fitting with a low to moderate number of observations. This technique is illustrated in an application...

  16. A SAS-macro for estimation of the cumulative incidence using Poisson regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waltoft, Berit Lindum

    2009-01-01

    the hazard rates, and the hazard rates are often estimated by the Cox regression. This procedure may not be suitable for large studies due to limited computer resources. Instead one uses Poisson regression, which approximates the Cox regression. Rosthøj et al. presented a SAS-macro for the estimation...... of the cumulative incidences based on the Cox regression. I present the functional form of the probabilities and variances when using piecewise constant hazard rates and a SAS-macro for the estimation using Poisson regression. The use of the macro is demonstrated through examples and compared to the macro presented...

  17. A cumulant functional for static and dynamic correlation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollett, Joshua W.; Hosseini, Hessam; Menzies, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    A functional for the cumulant energy is introduced. The functional is composed of a pair-correction and static and dynamic correlation energy components. The pair-correction and static correlation energies are functionals of the natural orbitals and the occupancy transferred between near-degenerate orbital pairs, rather than the orbital occupancies themselves. The dynamic correlation energy is a functional of the statically correlated on-top two-electron density. The on-top density functional used in this study is the well-known Colle-Salvetti functional. Using the cc-pVTZ basis set, the functional effectively models the bond dissociation of H 2 , LiH, and N 2 with equilibrium bond lengths and dissociation energies comparable to those provided by multireference second-order perturbation theory. The performance of the cumulant functional is less impressive for HF and F 2 , mainly due to an underestimation of the dynamic correlation energy by the Colle-Salvetti functional.

  18. Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniyama, Yukari; Katanoda, Kota; Charvat, Hadrien; Hori, Megumi; Ohno, Yuko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2017-11-01

    To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category. Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method. The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively. Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  19. High cumulative incidence of urinary tract transitional cell carcinoma after kidney transplantation in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ming-Ju; Lian, Jong-Da; Yang, Chi-Rei; Cheng, Chi-Hung; Chen, Cheng-Hsu; Lee, Wen-Chin; Shu, Kuo-Hsiung; Tang, Ming-Jer

    2004-06-01

    Cancer is a well-documented complication after kidney transplantation. Increased incidence of bladder cancer had been reported in long-term hemodialysis patients in Taiwan. Herein, the authors report a very high cumulative incidence of transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the urinary tract after kidney transplantation in Taiwan. The authors retrospectively reviewed the clinical data, medical records, and outcome of 730 kidney transplant (KT) recipients. The cumulative incidence of TCC was computed. The Cox regression method was used to analysis the role of potential risk factors. After a mean follow-up duration of 72.2 +/- 54.4 months, 69 cancers were diagnosed in 63 (8.6%) KT recipients. Of them, 30 cases (4.1%) were TCC. The cumulative incidence for TCC was 3.0% after 3 years of graft survival, increasing to 7.2% at 6 years and 17.5% at 10 years. Compared with the general population in Taiwan, the standardized mortality ratio was 398.4 (male, 192.6; female, 875.6). Painless gross hematuria was the cardinal initial symptom in 22 (73.3%) of the 30 KT recipients with TCC. Another 4 (13.3%) KT recipients with TCC presented with chronic urinary tract infection (UTI). Bilateral nephroureterectomy with removal of bladder cuffs was performed in 18 (60%) patients. Synchronous TCC in bilateral upper urinary tracts was confirmed in 11 (36.7%) of KT recipients with TCC. The age at the time of KT, female sex, compound analgesics usage, Chinese herb usage, and underground water intake had statistical significance as risk factors (P Taiwan, with an incidence of 4.1%. This study indicates that hematuria and chronic UTI are the initial presentation of TCC in KT recipients. Carefully urologic screening is indicated for patients with high risk for TCC, including those with older age, compound analgesics usage, Chinese herbs usage, and underground water intake as well as women.

  20. Cumulant approach to dynamical correlation functions at finite temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tran Minhtien.

    1993-11-01

    A new theoretical approach, based on the introduction of cumulants, to calculate thermodynamic averages and dynamical correlation functions at finite temperatures is developed. The method is formulated in Liouville instead of Hilbert space and can be applied to operators which do not require to satisfy fermion or boson commutation relations. The application of the partitioning and projection methods for the dynamical correlation functions is discussed. The present method can be applied to weakly as well as to strongly correlated systems. (author). 9 refs

  1. Exact probability distribution function for the volatility of cumulative production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadourian, Rubina; Klümper, Andreas

    2018-04-01

    In this paper we study the volatility and its probability distribution function for the cumulative production based on the experience curve hypothesis. This work presents a generalization of the study of volatility in Lafond et al. (2017), which addressed the effects of normally distributed noise in the production process. Due to its wide applicability in industrial and technological activities we present here the mathematical foundation for an arbitrary distribution function of the process, which we expect will pave the future research on forecasting of the production process.

  2. Cumulative incidence of youth obesity is associated with low cardiorespiratory fitness levels and with maternal overweight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anelise Reis Gaya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This longitudinal study evaluated the association between the incidence of youth overweight/obesity (Ow/Ob and low levels of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF over 4 years and youths' and their parents' demographic and nutritional characteristics. The randomized sample comprised 398 youth, aged 7-17 years at baseline, from a city in southern Brazil. Subjects were classified as being Ow/Ob according to international body mass index (BMI parameters. Parental weight and height were determined by direct questioning. Youth CRF was measured by a 9-minute walk-and-run test. The cumulative incidences of Ow/Ob and of low CRF levels were 25.1% and 20.5%, respectively. Relative to other youth, youth who were classified as "unhealthy" at baseline (with respect to CRF and by the fourth year were more likely to be classified as Ow/Ob (relative risks: 1.12 and 1.10, respectively. Youth whose mothers were categorized as Ow/Ob were at higher risk of being classified as Ow/Ob than youth whose mothers had normal BMIs (relative risks: 1.19 at baseline and 1.20 in the fourth year. The incidence of Ow/Ob among the former youth was associated with low CRF levels and with maternal Ob.

  3. Decision making generalized by a cumulative probability weighting function

    Science.gov (United States)

    dos Santos, Lindomar Soares; Destefano, Natália; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2018-01-01

    Typical examples of intertemporal decision making involve situations in which individuals must choose between a smaller reward, but more immediate, and a larger one, delivered later. Analogously, probabilistic decision making involves choices between options whose consequences differ in relation to their probability of receiving. In Economics, the expected utility theory (EUT) and the discounted utility theory (DUT) are traditionally accepted normative models for describing, respectively, probabilistic and intertemporal decision making. A large number of experiments confirmed that the linearity assumed by the EUT does not explain some observed behaviors, as nonlinear preference, risk-seeking and loss aversion. That observation led to the development of new theoretical models, called non-expected utility theories (NEUT), which include a nonlinear transformation of the probability scale. An essential feature of the so-called preference function of these theories is that the probabilities are transformed by decision weights by means of a (cumulative) probability weighting function, w(p) . We obtain in this article a generalized function for the probabilistic discount process. This function has as particular cases mathematical forms already consecrated in the literature, including discount models that consider effects of psychophysical perception. We also propose a new generalized function for the functional form of w. The limiting cases of this function encompass some parametric forms already proposed in the literature. Far beyond a mere generalization, our function allows the interpretation of probabilistic decision making theories based on the assumption that individuals behave similarly in the face of probabilities and delays and is supported by phenomenological models.

  4. INTERACTIVE VISUALIZATION OF PROBABILITY AND CUMULATIVE DENSITY FUNCTIONS

    KAUST Repository

    Potter, Kristin; Kirby, Robert Michael; Xiu, Dongbin; Johnson, Chris R.

    2012-01-01

    The probability density function (PDF), and its corresponding cumulative density function (CDF), provide direct statistical insight into the characterization of a random process or field. Typically displayed as a histogram, one can infer probabilities of the occurrence of particular events. When examining a field over some two-dimensional domain in which at each point a PDF of the function values is available, it is challenging to assess the global (stochastic) features present within the field. In this paper, we present a visualization system that allows the user to examine two-dimensional data sets in which PDF (or CDF) information is available at any position within the domain. The tool provides a contour display showing the normed difference between the PDFs and an ansatz PDF selected by the user and, furthermore, allows the user to interactively examine the PDF at any particular position. Canonical examples of the tool are provided to help guide the reader into the mapping of stochastic information to visual cues along with a description of the use of the tool for examining data generated from an uncertainty quantification exercise accomplished within the field of electrophysiology.

  5. Estimation of Cumulative Absolute Velocity using Empirical Green's Function Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Dong Hee; Yun, Kwan Hee; Chang, Chun Joong; Park, Se Moon

    2009-01-01

    In recognition of the needs to develop a new criterion for determining when the OBE (Operating Basis Earthquake) has been exceeded at nuclear power plants, Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV) was introduced by EPRI. The concept of CAV is the area accumulation with the values more than 0.025g occurred during every one second. The equation of the CAV is as follows. CAV = ∫ 0 max |a(t)|dt (1) t max = duration of record, a(t) = acceleration (>0.025g) Currently, the OBE exceedance criteria in Korea is Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA, PGA>0.1g). When Odesan earthquake (M L =4.8, January 20th, 2007) and Gyeongju earthquake (M L =3.4, June 2nd, 1999) were occurred, we have had already experiences of PGA greater than 0.1g that did not even cause any damage to the poorly-designed structures nearby. This moderate earthquake has motivated Korea to begin the use of the CAV for OBE exceedance criteria for NPPs. Because the present OBE level has proved itself to be a poor indicator for small-to-moderate earthquakes, for which the low OBE level can cause an inappropriate shut down the plant. A more serious possibility is that this scenario will become a reality at a very high level. Empirical Green's Function method was a simulation technique which can estimate the CAV value and it is hereby introduced

  6. Trends in one-year cumulative incidence of death between 2005 and 2013 among patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebell, Lisa M; Siedner, Mark J; Musinguzi, Nicholas; Boum, Yap; Bwana, Bosco M; Muyindike, Winnie; Hunt, Peter W; Martin, Jeffrey N; Bangsberg, David R

    2017-07-01

    Recent ecological data demonstrate improving outcomes for HIV-infected people in sub-Saharan Africa. Recently, Uganda has experienced a resurgence in HIV incidence and prevalence, but trends in HIV-related deaths have not been well described. Data were collected through the Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes (UARTO) Study, an observational longitudinal cohort of Ugandan adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2005 and 2013. We calculated cumulative incidence of death within one year of ART initiation, and fit Poisson models with robust variance estimators to estimate the effect enrollment period on one-year risk of death and loss to follow-up. Of 760 persons in UARTO who started ART, 30 deaths occurred within one year of ART initiation (cumulative incidence 3.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.7-5.6%). Risk of death was highest for those starting ART in 2005 (13.0%, 95% CI 6.0-24.0%), decreased in 2006-2007 to 4% (95% CI 2.0-6.0%), and did not change thereafter ( P = 0.61). These results were robust to adjustment for age, sex, CD4 cell count, viral load, asset wealth, baseline depression, and body mass index. Here, we demonstrate that one-year cumulative incidence of death was high just after free ART rollout, decreased the following year, and remained low thereafter. Once established, ART programs in President's Emergency Fund for AIDS Relief-supported countries can maintain high quality care.

  7. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimates cumulative incidence of health-related events in competing risk settings: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A

    2018-01-01

    Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimates cumulative incidence in competing risks (CRs) settings. The extent of overestimation (or its clinical significance) has been questioned, and CRs methods are infrequently used. This meta-analysis compares the Kaplan-Meier method to the cumulative incidence function (CIF), a CRs method. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, Web of Science (1992-2016), and article bibliographies for studies estimating cumulative incidence using the Kaplan-Meier method and CIF. For studies with sufficient data, we calculated pooled risk ratios (RRs) comparing Kaplan-Meier and CIF estimates using DerSimonian and Laird random effects models. We performed stratified meta-analyses by clinical area, rate of CRs (CRs/events of interest), and follow-up time. Of 2,192 identified abstracts, we included 77 studies in the systematic review and meta-analyzed 55. The pooled RR demonstrated the Kaplan-Meier estimate was 1.41 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36, 1.47] times higher than the CIF. Overestimation was highest among studies with high rates of CRs [RR = 2.36 (95% CI: 1.79, 3.12)], studies related to hepatology [RR = 2.60 (95% CI: 2.12, 3.19)], and obstetrics and gynecology [RR = 1.84 (95% CI: 1.52, 2.23)]. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the cumulative incidence across 10 clinical areas. Using CRs methods will ensure accurate results inform clinical and policy decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Functional analysis of controbloc incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gouffon, A.; Jorel, M.

    1992-11-01

    The subject of the present paper is the survey jointly carried out in 1989 by the IPSN Safety Analysis Department and the Firm BERTIN and Co. on significant incidents related to the Controbloc system equipping the EDF 1300 MWe PWR power plants in France. This survey consisted in a general review of Controbloc operating problems, together with analysis of the safety consequences of the incidents discussed. The survey enabled improvements to be recommended in this respect and provided a basis for safety analysis

  9. Low Birth Weight, Cumulative Obesity Dose, and the Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes

    OpenAIRE

    Feng, Cindy; Osgood, Nathaniel D.; Dyck, Roland F.

    2018-01-01

    Background. Obesity history may provide a better understanding of the contribution of obesity to T2DM risk. Methods. 17,634 participants from the 1958 National Child Development Study were followed from birth to 50 years. Cumulative obesity dose, a measure of obesity history, was calculated by subtracting the upper cut-off of the normal BMI from the actual BMI at each follow-up and summing the areas under the obesity dose curve. Hazard ratios (HRs) for diabetes were calculated using Cox regre...

  10. Cumulative incidence of postoperative severe pain at Hospital Universitario San Jose, Popayan. Preliminar report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid Muñoz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Postoperative pain remains as a problem. National studies report incidences of 31% for moderate and 22% for severe pain. Inadequate analgesia is related to dissatisfaction and adverse outcomes. The aim of this study was to describe the incidence and characteristics of the postoperative pain in the post-anesthesia care unit (PACU at Hospital Universitario San José of Popayán (HUSJ in patients undergoing general anesthesia during the first postoperative hour. Methods: Cohort study. We recruited patients attending PACU and undergoing procedures using general anesthesia, between 18 and 70 years. Using a standardized collection form medical history, demographic data, medical history, anesthetic management, intraoperative analgesia and postoperative pain assessment by verbal and numerical pain scale (1-10 were recorded. Postoperative outcome data were also collected in the PACU. Results: The incidence of severe postoperative pain at 10 minutes was 12.3% 95%CI [7.1-18.2] (19 patients. Within 30 minutes of assessment 4.5% 95%CI [1.3-8.4] (7 patients and 1.9% 60 minutes 95%CI [0-4.5] (3 patients. 48.7% required rescue analgesic at PACU. Incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV was significantly different in patients requiring rescue analgesic. Conclusion: The incidence of severe postoperative pain in the first postoperative hour at HUSJ is close to 12% and it decreases as time goes by. Patients requiring rescue analgesic have a higher incidence of postoperative complications such as PONV.

  11. Cumulative incidence, distribution, and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure in Nepal: results from the living standards survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, Mamata; Ayer, Rakesh; Kondo, Masahide

    2018-02-14

    Nepal has committed to the global community to achieve universal health coverage by 2030. Nevertheless, Nepal still has a high proportion of out-of-pocket health payment and a limited risk-pooling mechanism. Out-of-pocket payment for the healthcare services could result in catastrophic health expenditure (CHE). Evidence is required to effectively channel the efforts to lower those expenses in order to achieve universal health coverage. However, little is known about CHE and its determinants in a broad national context in Nepal. Therefore, this study was conducted to explore the cumulative incidence, distribution, and determinants of CHE in Nepal. Data were obtained from the nationally representative survey, the Nepal Living Standards Survey-third undertaken in 2010/11. Information from 5988 households was used for the analyses. Households were classified as having CHE when their out-of-pocket health payment was greater than or equal to 40% of their capacity to pay. Remaining households were classified as not having CHE. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify determinants of CHE. Based on household-weighted sample, the cumulative incidence of CHE was 10.3% per month in Nepal. This incidence was concentrated in the far-western region and households in the poorer expenditure quartiles. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that households were more likely to face CHE if they; consisted of chronically ill member(s), have a higher burden of acute illness and injuries, have elderly (≥60 years) member(s), belonged to the poor expenditure quartile, and were located in the far-western region. In contrast, households were less likely to incur CHE when their household head was educated. Having children (≤5 years) in households did not significantly affect catastrophic health expenditure. This study identified a high cumulative incidence of CHE. CHE was disproportionately concentrated in the poor households and households located in the far

  12. Surveillance of Otitis Media With Effusion in Thai Children With Cleft Palate: Cumulative Incidence and Outcome of the Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ungkanont, Kitirat; Boonyabut, Panrasee; Komoltri, Chulaluk; Tanphaichitr, Archwin; Vathanophas, Vannipa

    2018-04-01

    To study the incidence and outcome of management of otitis media with effusion in Thai children with cleft palate. Retrospective cohort study in the tertiary care center. Ninety-five children with cleft palate were referred for ear evaluation, from June 1997 to January 2015. Fifteen children (15.8%) had associated craniofacial syndromic anomalies. Cumulative incidence of otitis media with effusion, rate of ventilation tube insertion, duration of indwelling tubes, hearing outcome, and complications of ventilation tubes. Ear examinations were done every 8 to 12 weeks throughout the study. Cumulative incidence of otitis media with effusion was 53.7% in children within 12 months of age and 81.1% within 24 months of age. At the end of the study, all of the patients had at least 1 episode of otitis media with effusion. Eighty-eight children (92.6%) had palatoplasty, and there was no significant difference in the incidence of otitis media before and after palatoplasty. The mean hearing level at recruitment was 40.8 ±18.4 dB. Ventilation tube insertion was done in 76 patients (80%). The median time for indwelling tubes was 11.7 months. Rate of ventilation tube insertion was 0.5/year. The mean hearing level at last follow-up was 23.5 ± 14 dB. Otorrhea through tube was found in 24 cases (31.6%). Otitis media with effusion was common in Thai children with cleft palate. Surveillance of middle ear effusion and ventilation tube insertion contributed to a favorable hearing outcome.

  13. Structure functions and particle production in the cumulative region: two different exponentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, M.; Vechernin, V.

    1997-01-01

    In the framework of the recently proposed (QCD-based parton model for the cumulative phenomena in the interactions with nuclei two mechanisms for particle production, direct and spectator ones, are analyzed. It is shown that due to final-state interactions the leading terms of the direct mechanism contribution are cancelled and the spectator mechanism is the dominant one. It leads to a smaller slope of the cumulative particle production rates compared to the slope of the nuclear structure function in the cumulative region x ≥ 1, in agreement with the recent experimental data

  14. Lead-Related Genetic Loci, Cumulative Lead Exposure and Incident Coronary Heart Disease: The Normative Aging Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisskopf, Marc G.; Sparrow, David; Schwartz, Joel; Hu, Howard; Park, Sung Kyun

    2016-01-01

    Background Cumulative exposure to lead is associated with cardiovascular outcomes. Polymorphisms in the δ-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase (ALAD), hemochromatosis (HFE), heme oxygenase-1 (HMOX1), vitamin D receptor (VDR), glutathione S-transferase (GST) supergene family (GSTP1, GSTT1, GSTM1), apolipoprotein E (APOE),angiotensin II receptor-1 (AGTR1) and angiotensinogen (AGT) genes, are believed to alter toxicokinetics and/or toxicodynamics of lead. Objectives We assessed possible effect modification by genetic polymorphisms in ALAD, HFE, HMOX1, VDR, GSTP1, GSTT1, GSTM1, APOE, AGTR1 and AGT individually and as the genetic risk score (GRS) on the association between cumulative lead exposure and incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events. Methods We used K-shell-X-ray fluorescence to measure bone lead levels. GRS was calculated on the basis of 22 lead-related loci. We constructed Cox proportional hazard models to compute adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident CHD. We applied inverse probability weighting to account for potential selection bias due to recruitment into the bone lead sub-study. Results Significant effect modification was found by VDR, HMOX1, GSTP1, APOE, and AGT genetic polymorphisms when evaluated individually. Further, the bone lead-CHD associations became larger as GRS increases. After adjusting for potential confounders, a HR of CHD was 2.27 (95%CI: 1.50–3.42) with 2-fold increase in patella lead levels, among participants in the top tertile of GRS. We also detected an increasing trend in HRs across tertiles of GRS (p-trend = 0.0063). Conclusions Our findings suggest that lead-related loci as a whole may play an important role in susceptibility to lead-related CHD risk. These findings need to be validated in a separate cohort containing bone lead, lead-related genetic loci and incident CHD data. PMID:27584680

  15. Widowhood Fantasies: Incidence, Characteristics, and Potential Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bear, Roberta Meyer; Flowers, Barbara P.

    Although some people fantasize about their spouse's possible death, the literature contains no reports of research on widowhood fantasies. The incidence, characteristics, and possible function of these fantasies were examined in individual interviews with 28 divorced and married men and women. Interview data were analyzed by calculating chi-square…

  16. Cumulative Risk Disparities in Children's Neurocognitive Functioning: A Developmental Cascade Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Mark; Browne, Dillon T.; Plamondon, Andre; Daniel, Ella; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    The current longitudinal study examined the role of cumulative social risk on children's theory of mind (ToM) and executive functioning (EF) across early development. Further, we also tested a cascade model of development in which children's social cognition at 18 months was hypothesized to predict ToM and EF at age 4.5 through intermediary…

  17. Associations between parenting, media use, cumulative risk, and children’s executive functioning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linebarger, D.L.; Barr, R.; Lapierre, M.A.; Piotrowski, J.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: This study was designed to examine how parenting style, media exposure, and cumulative risk were associated with executive functioning (EF) during early childhood. Methods: A nationally representative group of US parents/caregivers (N = 1156) with 1 child between 2 and 8 years

  18. Phenomenological pictures on the cumulative effect in nucleus-nucleus collisions at the incident kinetic energy of 3.65 A GeV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besliu, Calin; Jipa, Alexandru; Zaharia, Radu; Tugulea, Mircea; Iosif, Maria; Argintaru, Dan; Argintaru, Cristina

    1996-01-01

    In this work new experimental results on the cumulative production of the negative pions are reported. Eight central and peripheral (inelastic) collisions at 4.5 A GeV/c incident momentum are taken into account comparisons with experimental results on the cumulative effects obtained in n-p collisions at 4.53 GeV/c and O-Ne, O-Pb collisions at 4.5 A GeV/c are included in this work. A significant cumulative production of negative pions is observed. The non-equilibrium mechanisms can be considered for cumulative effect. The experiments have been performed at the Synchrophasotron from JINR Dubna in the frame of the SKM 200 Collaboration. (authors)

  19. Materials properties utilization in a cumulative mechanical damage function for LMFBR fuel pin failure analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, D.C.

    1977-01-01

    An overview is presented of one of the fuel-pin analysis techniques used in the CRBRP program, the cumulative mechanical damage function. This technique, as applied to LMFBR's, was developed along with the majority of models used to describe the mechanical properties and environmental behavior of the cladding (i.e., 20 percent cold-worked, 316 stainless steel). As it relates to fuel-pin analyses the Cumulative Mechanical Damage Function (CDF) continually monitors cladding integrity through steady state and transient operation; it is a time dependent function of temperature and stress which reflects the effects of both the prior mechanical history and the variations in mechanical properties caused by exposure to the reactor environment

  20. Cumulative childhood risk and adult functioning in abused and neglected children grown up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horan, Jacqueline M; Widom, Cathy Spatz

    2015-08-01

    This paper examines the relationship between childhood exposure to cumulative risk and three indicators of psychosocial adjustment in adulthood (educational attainment, mental health, and criminal behavior) and tests three different models (linear, quadratic, and interaction). Data were collected over several time points from individuals who were part of a prospective cohort design study that matched children with documented cases of abuse and/or neglect with children without such histories and followed them into adulthood. Hierarchical multiple regressions compared linear and quadratic models and then examined potential moderating effects of child abuse/neglect and gender. Exposure to a greater number of childhood risk factors was significantly related to fewer years of education, more anxiety and depression symptomatology, and more criminal arrests in adulthood. The relationship between cumulative risk and years of education demonstrated a curvilinear pattern, whereas the relationship between cumulative risk and both mental health and criminal arrests was linear. Child abuse/neglect did not moderate these relationships, although there were direct effects for both child abuse/neglect and gender on criminal arrests, with more arrests for abused/neglected individuals than controls and more for males than females. Gender interacted with cumulative risk to impact educational attainment and criminal behavior, suggesting that interventions may be more effective if tailored differently for males and females. Interventions may need to be multifaceted and designed to address these different domains of functioning.

  1. Detecting spatial patterns with the cumulant function – Part 1: The theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Naveau

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available In climate studies, detecting spatial patterns that largely deviate from the sample mean still remains a statistical challenge. Although a Principal Component Analysis (PCA, or equivalently a Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF decomposition, is often applied for this purpose, it provides meaningful results only if the underlying multivariate distribution is Gaussian. Indeed, PCA is based on optimizing second order moments, and the covariance matrix captures the full dependence structure of multivariate Gaussian vectors. Whenever the application at hand can not satisfy this normality hypothesis (e.g. precipitation data, alternatives and/or improvements to PCA have to be developed and studied. To go beyond this second order statistics constraint, that limits the applicability of the PCA, we take advantage of the cumulant function that can produce higher order moments information. The cumulant function, well-known in the statistical literature, allows us to propose a new, simple and fast procedure to identify spatial patterns for non-Gaussian data. Our algorithm consists in maximizing the cumulant function. Three families of multivariate random vectors, for which explicit computations are obtained, are implemented to illustrate our approach. In addition, we show that our algorithm corresponds to selecting the directions along which projected data display the largest spread over the marginal probability density tails.

  2. CDFTBL: A statistical program for generating cumulative distribution functions from data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eslinger, P.W.

    1991-06-01

    This document describes the theory underlying the CDFTBL code and gives details for using the code. The CDFTBL code provides an automated tool for generating a statistical cumulative distribution function that describes a set of field data. The cumulative distribution function is written in the form of a table of probabilities, which can be used in a Monte Carlo computer code. A a specific application, CDFTBL can be used to analyze field data collected for parameters required by the PORMC computer code. Section 2.0 discusses the mathematical basis of the code. Section 3.0 discusses the code structure. Section 4.0 describes the free-format input command language, while Section 5.0 describes in detail the commands to run the program. Section 6.0 provides example program runs, and Section 7.0 provides references. The Appendix provides a program source listing. 11 refs., 2 figs., 19 tabs

  3. Cumulative exposure to dust and gases as determinants of lung function decline in tunnel construction workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakke, B; Ulvestad, B; Stewart, P; Eduard, W

    2004-03-01

    To study the relation between lung function decrease and cumulative exposure to dust and gases in tunnel construction workers. A total of 651 male construction workers (drill and blast workers, tunnel concrete workers, shotcreting operators, and tunnel boring machine workers) were followed up by spirometric measurements in 1989-2002 for an average of six years. Outdoor concrete workers, foremen, and engineers served as a low exposed referent population. The between worker component of variability was considerably reduced within the job groups compared to the whole population, suggesting that the workers within job groups had similar exposure levels. The annual decrease in FEV1 in low-exposed non-smoking workers was 21 ml and 24 ml in low-exposed ever smokers. The annual decrease in FEV1 in tunnel construction workers was 20-31 ml higher than the low exposed workers depending on job group for both non-smokers and ever smokers. After adjustment for age and observation time, cumulative exposure to nitrogen dioxide showed the strongest association with a decrease in FEV1 in both non-smokers, and ever smokers. Cumulative exposure to nitrogen dioxide appeared to be a major risk factor for lung function decreases in these tunnel construction workers, although other agents may have contributed to the observed effect. Contact with blasting fumes should be avoided, diesel exhaust emissions should be reduced, and respiratory devices should be used to protect workers against dust and nitrogen dioxide exposure.

  4. Cumulative contextual and individual disadvantages over the life course and adult functional somatic symptoms in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafsson, Per E; Hammarström, Anne; San Sebastian, Miguel

    2015-08-01

    Disadvantage, originating in one's residential context or in one's past life course, has been shown to impact on health in adulthood. There is however little research on the accumulated health impact of both neighbourhood and individual conditions over the life course. This study aims to examine whether the accumulation of contextual and individual disadvantages from adolescence to middle-age predicts functional somatic symptoms (FSS) in middle-age, taking baseline health into account. The sample is the age 16, 21, 30 and 42 surveys of the prospective Northern Swedish Cohort, with analytical sample size n = 910 (85% of the original cohort). FSS at age 16 and 42, and cumulative socioeconomic disadvantage, social adversity and material adversity between 16 and 42 years were operationalized from questionnaires, and cumulative neighbourhood disadvantage between 16 and 42 years from register data. Results showed accumulation of disadvantages jointly explained 9-12% of FSS variance. In the total sample, cumulative neighbourhood and socioeconomic disadvantage significantly predicted FSS at age 42 in the total sample. In women, neighbourhood disadvantage but not socioeconomic disadvantage contributed significantly, whereas in men, socioeconomic but not neighbourhood disadvantage contributed significantly. In all analyses, associations were largely explained by the parallel accumulation of social and material adversities, but not by symptoms at baseline. In conclusion, the accumulation of diverse forms of disadvantages together plays an important role for somatic complaints in adulthood, independently of baseline health. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  5. Cumulant generating function formula of heat transfer in ballistic systems with lead-lead coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huanan; Agarwalla, Bijay Kumar; Wang, Jian-Sheng

    2012-10-01

    Based on a two-time observation protocol, we consider heat transfer in a given time interval tM in a lead-junction-lead system taking coupling between the leads into account. In view of the two-time observation, consistency conditions are carefully verified in our specific family of quantum histories. Furthermore, its implication is briefly explored. Then using the nonequilibrium Green's function method, we obtain an exact formula for the cumulant generating function for heat transfer between the two leads, valid in both transient and steady-state regimes. Also, a compact formula for the cumulant generating function in the long-time limit is derived, for which the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation symmetry is explicitly verified. In addition, we briefly discuss Di Ventra's repartitioning trick regarding whether the repartitioning procedure of the total Hamiltonian affects the nonequilibrium steady-state current fluctuation. All kinds of properties of nonequilibrium current fluctuations, such as the fluctuation theorem in different time regimes, could be readily given according to these exact formulas.

  6. Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.

    1996-03-01

    A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , S st , p st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , S su , p su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , S st , p st ) and (S su , S su , p su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

  7. Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.

    1996-01-01

    A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , L st , P st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , L su , P su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , L st , P st ) and (S su , L su , P su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

  8. A prospective study of the cumulative incidence and course of restless legs syndrome in de novo patients with Parkinson's disease during chronic dopaminergic therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchesi, Elena; Negrotti, Anna; Angelini, Monica; Goldoni, Matteo; Abrignani, Giorgia; Calzetti, Stefano

    2016-03-01

    The authors report the cumulative incidence of Restless Legs Syndrome (RLS) over a 3 years follow-up period in 92 de novo Parkinson's disease patients under chronic dopaminergic therapy and the clinical course of the sensory-motor disorder over 12 months as from its onset. The overall cumulative incidence of RLS was found by 15.3%, i.e. 14 incident cases, and by 11.9%, i.e. 11 incident cases, after the exclusion of possible "secondary" forms of the disorder. These figures are higher than those reported in general population in Germany (Study of Health in Pomerania), confirming our previous findings of incidence rate of the disorder. At the end of the 3 years follow-up period the prevalence of "current" RLS was significantly higher than that previously found in drug naïve Parkinson's disease patients and in controls, supporting the view that RLS emerging in the course of chronic dopaminergic therapy is the main determinant of the co-morbid association with Parkinson's disease. During the 12 months period of observation the RLS showed a frequency of occurrence of 6.08 episodes per month on average and a remittent clinical course was prevailing in the 11 incident cases, with a significant frequency decrease in the second as compared to the first 6 months, i.e. 3.26 versus 8.9 episodes per month, and none of the patients developed augmentation in the same period. It is hypothesized that the remittent course could be due to long-term adaptation (downregulation) of the hypersensitive post-synaptic dopamine receptors in the spinal cord to a continuous dopaminergic stimulation, possibly coupled with compensatory up-regulation of pre-synaptic dopamine re-uptake mechanism, in the patients in which the hypothalamic A11 area, site of origin of the dopamine-mediated diencephalo-spinal pathway, is involved in the neurodegenerative process.

  9. Probability and Cumulative Density Function Methods for the Stochastic Advection-Reaction Equation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barajas-Solano, David A.; Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.

    2018-01-01

    We present a cumulative density function (CDF) method for the probabilistic analysis of $d$-dimensional advection-dominated reactive transport in heterogeneous media. We employ a probabilistic approach in which epistemic uncertainty on the spatial heterogeneity of Darcy-scale transport coefficients is modeled in terms of random fields with given correlation structures. Our proposed CDF method employs a modified Large-Eddy-Diffusivity (LED) approach to close and localize the nonlocal equations governing the one-point PDF and CDF of the concentration field, resulting in a $(d + 1)$ dimensional PDE. Compared to the classsical LED localization, the proposed modified LED localization explicitly accounts for the mean-field advective dynamics over the phase space of the PDF and CDF. To illustrate the accuracy of the proposed closure, we apply our CDF method to one-dimensional single-species reactive transport with uncertain, heterogeneous advection velocities and reaction rates modeled as random fields.

  10. Cumulative distribution functions associated with bubble-nucleation processes in cavitation

    KAUST Repository

    Watanabe, Hiroshi

    2010-11-15

    Bubble-nucleation processes of a Lennard-Jones liquid are studied by molecular dynamics simulations. Waiting time, which is the lifetime of a superheated liquid, is determined for several system sizes, and the apparent finite-size effect of the nucleation rate is observed. From the cumulative distribution function of the nucleation events, the bubble-nucleation process is found to be not a simple Poisson process but a Poisson process with an additional relaxation time. The parameters of the exponential distribution associated with the process are determined by taking the relaxation time into account, and the apparent finite-size effect is removed. These results imply that the use of the arithmetic mean of the waiting time until a bubble grows to the critical size leads to an incorrect estimation of the nucleation rate. © 2010 The American Physical Society.

  11. Simulation by the method of inverse cumulative distribution function applied in optimising of foundry plant production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Szymszal

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The study discusses application of computer simulation based on the method of inverse cumulative distribution function. The simulationrefers to an elementary static case, which can also be solved by physical experiment, consisting mainly in observations of foundryproduction in a selected foundry plant. For the simulation and forecasting of foundry production quality in selected cast iron grade, arandom number generator of Excel calculation sheet was chosen. Very wide potentials of this type of simulation when applied to theevaluation of foundry production quality were demonstrated, using a number generator of even distribution for generation of a variable ofan arbitrary distribution, especially of a preset empirical distribution, without any need of adjusting to this variable the smooth theoreticaldistributions.

  12. Prevalence and cumulative incidence of abnormal cervical cytology among HIV-infected Thai women: a 5.5-year retrospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Cervical cancer is one of the most common AIDS-related malignancies in Thailand. To prevent cervical cancer, The US Public Health Service and The Infectious Disease Society of America have recommended that all HIV-infected women should obtain 2 Pap smears 6 months apart after the initial HIV diagnosis and, if results of both are normal, should undergo annual cytological screening. However, there has been no evidence in supporting whether this guideline is appropriate in all settings - especially in areas where HIV-infected women are living in resource-constrained condition. Methods To determine the appropriate interval of Pap smear screenings for HIV-infected Thai women and risk factors for subsequent abnormal cervical cytology, we assessed the prevalence, cumulative incidence and associated factors of cervical cell abnormalities (atypical squamous cell of undetermined significance or higher grades, ASCUS+) among this group of patients. Results The prevalence of ASCUS+ was 15.4% at the first visit, and the cumulative incidence of ASCUS+ gradually increased to 37% in the first 3.5 years of follow-up appointments (first 7 times), and tended to plateau in the last 2 years. For multivariate correlation analysis, women with a CD4 count ASCUS+ (P = 0.043). There were no associations of subsequent ASCUS+ with age, pregnancy, contraceptive method, highly active anti-retroviral treatment, assumed duration of infection, or the CD4 count nadir level. Conclusion There are high prevalence and cumulative incidence of ASCUS+ in HIV-infected Thai women. With a high lost-to-follow-up rate, an appropriate interval of Pap smear screening cannot be concluded from the present study. Nevertheless, the HIV-infected Thai women may require more than two normal semi-annual Pap smears before shifting to routinely annual cytologic screening. PMID:21211065

  13. Prevalence and cumulative incidence of abnormal cervical cytology among HIV-infected Thai women: a 5.5-year retrospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thamkhantho Manopchai

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cervical cancer is one of the most common AIDS-related malignancies in Thailand. To prevent cervical cancer, The US Public Health Service and The Infectious Disease Society of America have recommended that all HIV-infected women should obtain 2 Pap smears 6 months apart after the initial HIV diagnosis and, if results of both are normal, should undergo annual cytological screening. However, there has been no evidence in supporting whether this guideline is appropriate in all settings - especially in areas where HIV-infected women are living in resource-constrained condition. Methods To determine the appropriate interval of Pap smear screenings for HIV-infected Thai women and risk factors for subsequent abnormal cervical cytology, we assessed the prevalence, cumulative incidence and associated factors of cervical cell abnormalities (atypical squamous cell of undetermined significance or higher grades, ASCUS+ among this group of patients. Results The prevalence of ASCUS+ was 15.4% at the first visit, and the cumulative incidence of ASCUS+ gradually increased to 37% in the first 3.5 years of follow-up appointments (first 7 times, and tended to plateau in the last 2 years. For multivariate correlation analysis, women with a CD4 count P = 0.043. There were no associations of subsequent ASCUS+ with age, pregnancy, contraceptive method, highly active anti-retroviral treatment, assumed duration of infection, or the CD4 count nadir level. Conclusion There are high prevalence and cumulative incidence of ASCUS+ in HIV-infected Thai women. With a high lost-to-follow-up rate, an appropriate interval of Pap smear screening cannot be concluded from the present study. Nevertheless, the HIV-infected Thai women may require more than two normal semi-annual Pap smears before shifting to routinely annual cytologic screening.

  14. Cumulative incidence of infertility in a New Zealand birth cohort to age 38 by sex and the relationship with family formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Roode, Thea; Dickson, Nigel Patrick; Righarts, Alida Antoinette; Gillett, Wayne Richard

    2015-04-01

    To estimate the cumulative incidence of infertility for men and women in a population-based sample. Longitudinal study of a birth cohort. Research unit. A population-based birth cohort of 1,037 men and women born in Dunedin, New Zealand, between 1972 and 1973. None. Cumulative incidence of infertility by age 32 and 38, distribution of causes and service use for infertility, live birth subsequent to infertility, and live birth by age 38. The cumulative incidence of infertility by age 38 ranged from 14.4% to 21.8% for men and from 15.2% to 26.0% for women depending on the infertility definition and data used. Infertility, defined as having tried to conceive for 12 months or more or having sought medical help to conceive, was experienced by 21.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.7-26.2) of men and 26.0% (95% CI, 21.8-30.6) of women by age 38. For those who experienced infertility, 59.8% (95% CI, 48.3-70.4) of men and 71.8% (95% CI, 62.1-80.3) of women eventually had a live birth. Successful resolution of infertility and entry into parenthood by age 38 were much lower for those who first experienced infertility in their mid to late thirties compared with at a younger age. Comparison of reports from two assessments in this cohort study suggests infertility estimates from a single cross-sectional study may underestimate lifetime infertility. The lower rate of resolution and entry into parenthood for those first experiencing infertility in their mid to late thirties highlights the consequences of postponing parenthood and could result in involuntary childlessness and fewer children than desired. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Study of cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts with nonlinear output frequency response functions based on NARMAX modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Honglan; Mao, Hanying; Mao, Hanling; Zheng, Weixue; Huang, Zhenfeng; Li, Xinxin; Wang, Xianghong

    2017-12-01

    Cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts plays a key role in the process of remanufacturing engineering and is related to the service safety of the remanufactured parts. In light of the nonlinear properties of used parts caused by cumulative fatigue damage, the based nonlinear output frequency response functions detection approach offers a breakthrough to solve this key problem. First, a modified PSO-adaptive lasso algorithm is introduced to improve the accuracy of the NARMAX model under impulse hammer excitation, and then, an effective new algorithm is derived to estimate the nonlinear output frequency response functions under rectangular pulse excitation, and a based nonlinear output frequency response functions index is introduced to detect the cumulative fatigue damage in used parts. Then, a novel damage detection approach that integrates the NARMAX model and the rectangular pulse is proposed for nonlinear output frequency response functions identification and cumulative fatigue damage detection of used parts. Finally, experimental studies of fatigued plate specimens and used connecting rod parts are conducted to verify the validity of the novel approach. The obtained results reveal that the new approach can detect cumulative fatigue damages of used parts effectively and efficiently and that the various values of the based nonlinear output frequency response functions index can be used to detect the different fatigue damages or working time. Since the proposed new approach can extract nonlinear properties of systems by only a single excitation of the inspected system, it shows great promise for use in remanufacturing engineering applications.

  16. CDF-XL: computing cumulative distribution functions of reaction time data in Excel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, George; Grange, James A

    2011-12-01

    In experimental psychology, central tendencies of reaction time (RT) distributions are used to compare different experimental conditions. This emphasis on the central tendency ignores additional information that may be derived from the RT distribution itself. One method for analysing RT distributions is to construct cumulative distribution frequency plots (CDFs; Ratcliff, Psychological Bulletin 86:446-461, 1979). However, this method is difficult to implement in widely available software, severely restricting its use. In this report, we present an Excel-based program, CDF-XL, for constructing and analysing CDFs, with the aim of making such techniques more readily accessible to researchers, including students (CDF-XL can be downloaded free of charge from the Psychonomic Society's online archive). CDF-XL functions as an Excel workbook and starts from the raw experimental data, organised into three columns (Subject, Condition, and RT) on an Input Data worksheet (a point-and-click utility is provided for achieving this format from a broader data set). No further preprocessing or sorting of the data is required. With one click of a button, CDF-XL will generate two forms of cumulative analysis: (1) "standard" CDFs, based on percentiles of participant RT distributions (by condition), and (2) a related analysis employing the participant means of rank-ordered RT bins. Both analyses involve partitioning the data in similar ways, but the first uses a "median"-type measure at the participant level, while the latter uses the mean. The results are presented in three formats: (i) by participants, suitable for entry into further statistical analysis; (ii) grand means by condition; and (iii) completed CDF plots in Excel charts.

  17. Cumulative complexity: a functional, patient-centered model of patient complexity can improve research and practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shippee, Nathan D; Shah, Nilay D; May, Carl R; Mair, Frances S; Montori, Victor M

    2012-10-01

    To design a functional, patient-centered model of patient complexity with practical applicability to analytic design and clinical practice. Existing literature on patient complexity has mainly identified its components descriptively and in isolation, lacking clarity as to their combined functions in disrupting care or to how complexity changes over time. The authors developed a cumulative complexity model, which integrates existing literature and emphasizes how clinical and social factors accumulate and interact to complicate patient care. A narrative literature review is used to explicate the model. The model emphasizes a core, patient-level mechanism whereby complicating factors impact care and outcomes: the balance between patient workload of demands and patient capacity to address demands. Workload encompasses the demands on the patient's time and energy, including demands of treatment, self-care, and life in general. Capacity concerns ability to handle work (e.g., functional morbidity, financial/social resources, literacy). Workload-capacity imbalances comprise the mechanism driving patient complexity. Treatment and illness burdens serve as feedback loops, linking negative outcomes to further imbalances, such that complexity may accumulate over time. With its components largely supported by existing literature, the model has implications for analytic design, clinical epidemiology, and clinical practice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Second primary pancreatic ductal carcinoma in the remnant pancreas after pancreatectomy for pancreatic ductal carcinoma: High cumulative incidence rates at 5 years after pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishida, Jun; Toyama, Hirochika; Matsumoto, Ippei; Asari, Sadaki; Goto, Tadahiro; Terai, Sachio; Nanno, Yoshihide; Yamashita, Azusa; Mizumoto, Takuya; Ueda, Yuki; Kido, Masahiro; Ajiki, Tetsuo; Fukumoto, Takumi; Ku, Yonson

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the incidence rate and clinical features of second primary pancreatic ductal carcinoma (SPPDC) in the remnant pancreas after pancreatectomy for pancreatic ductal carcinoma (PDC). Data of patients undergoing R0 resection for PDC at a single high-volume center were reviewed. SPPDC was defined as a tumor in the remnant pancreas after R0 resection for PDC, and SPPDC met at least one of the following conditions: 1) the time interval between initial pancreatectomy and development of a new tumor was 3 years or more; 2) the new tumor was not located in contact with the pancreatic stump. We investigated the clinical features and treatment outcomes of patients with SPPDC. This study included 130 patients who underwent surgical resection for PDC between 2005 and 2014. Six (4.6%) patients developed SPPDC. The cumulative 3- and 5-year incidence rates were 3.1% and 17.7%, respectively. Four patients underwent remnant pancreatectomy for SPPDC. They were diagnosed with the disease in stage IIA or higher and developed recurrence within 6 months after remnant pancreatectomy. One patient received carbon ion radiotherapy and survived 45 months. One patient refused treatment and died 19 months after the diagnosis of SPPDC. The incidence rate of SPPDC is not negligible, and the cumulative 5-year incidence rate of SPPDC is markedly high. Post-operative surveillance of the remnant pancreas is critical for the early detection of SPPDC, even in long-term survivors after PDC resection. Copyright © 2016 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Cumulative Incidence of Seizures and Epilepsy in Ten-Year-Old Children Born Before 28 Weeks' Gestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, Laurie M; Heeren, Timothy C; Stafstrom, Carl E; DeBassio, William; Allred, Elizabeth N; Leviton, Alan; O'Shea, T Michael; Hirtz, Deborah; Rollins, Julie; Kuban, Karl

    2017-08-01

    We evaluated the incidence of seizures and epilepsy in the first decade of life among children born extremely premature (less than 28 weeks' gestation). In a prospective, multicenter, observational study, 889 of 966 eligible children born in 2002 to 2004 were evaluated at two and ten years for neurological morbidity. Complementing questionnaire data to determine a history of seizures, all caregivers were interviewed retrospectively for postneonatal seizures using a validated seizure screen followed by a structured clinical interview by a pediatric epileptologist. A second pediatric epileptologist established an independent diagnosis based on recorded responses of the interview. A third epileptologist determined the final diagnosis when evaluators disagreed (3%). Life table survival methods were used to estimate seizure incidence through ten years. By age ten years, 12.2% (95% confidence interval: 9.8, 14.5) of children had experienced one or more seizures, 7.6% (95% confidence interval: 5.7, 9.5) had epilepsy, 3.2% had seizure with fever, and 1.3% had a single, unprovoked seizure. The seizure incidence increased with decreasing gestational age. In more than 75% of children with seizures, onset was after one year of age. Seizure incidence was comparable in both sexes. Two-thirds of those with epilepsy had other neurological disorders. One third of children with epilepsy were not recorded on the medical history questionnaire. The incidence of epilepsy through age ten years among children born extremely premature is approximately 7- to 14-fold higher than the 0.5% to 1% lifetime incidence reported in the general pediatric population. Seizures in this population are under-recognized, and possibly underdiagnosed, by parents and providers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)

    1996-03-01

    A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) and (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems.

  1. The cumulative load of depressive illness is associated with cognitive function in the remitted state of unipolar depressive disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasselbalch, BJ; Knorr, U; Hasselbalch, S G

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the cumulative number, duration and subtypes (severity and presence of psychotic features) of previous episodes of depression in patients with unipolar depressive disorder in a remitted state are associated with decreased global cognitive function. METHODS: Via...... with the Cambridge Cognitive Examination (CAMCOG), which provides a composite measure of global cognitive function. RESULTS: A total of 88 patients and 50 controls accepted our invitation to participate, fulfilled the selection criteria and were included in the study. The cumulative duration of depressive episodes...... episodes with psychotic features, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that cognitive dysfunction is associated with the cumulative duration of depressive episodes, and that, in particular, depressive episodes with psychotic features in the course of illness may be a significant predictor...

  2. Probabilistic performance estimators for computational chemistry methods: The empirical cumulative distribution function of absolute errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pernot, Pascal; Savin, Andreas

    2018-06-01

    Benchmarking studies in computational chemistry use reference datasets to assess the accuracy of a method through error statistics. The commonly used error statistics, such as the mean signed and mean unsigned errors, do not inform end-users on the expected amplitude of prediction errors attached to these methods. We show that, the distributions of model errors being neither normal nor zero-centered, these error statistics cannot be used to infer prediction error probabilities. To overcome this limitation, we advocate for the use of more informative statistics, based on the empirical cumulative distribution function of unsigned errors, namely, (1) the probability for a new calculation to have an absolute error below a chosen threshold and (2) the maximal amplitude of errors one can expect with a chosen high confidence level. Those statistics are also shown to be well suited for benchmarking and ranking studies. Moreover, the standard error on all benchmarking statistics depends on the size of the reference dataset. Systematic publication of these standard errors would be very helpful to assess the statistical reliability of benchmarking conclusions.

  3. An uncertainty importance measure using a distance metric for the change in a cumulative distribution function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chun, Moon-Hyun; Han, Seok-Jung; Tak, Nam-IL

    2000-01-01

    A simple measure of uncertainty importance using the entire change of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) has been developed for use in probability safety assessments (PSAs). The entire change of CDFs is quantified in terms of the metric distance between two CDFs. The metric distance measure developed in this study reflects the relative impact of distributional changes of inputs on the change of an output distribution, while most of the existing uncertainty importance measures reflect the magnitude of relative contribution of input uncertainties to the output uncertainty. The present measure has been evaluated analytically for various analytical distributions to examine its characteristics. To illustrate the applicability and strength of the present measure, two examples are provided. The first example is an application of the present measure to a typical problem of a system fault tree analysis and the second one is for a hypothetical non-linear model. Comparisons of the present result with those obtained by existing uncertainty importance measures show that the metric distance measure is a useful tool to express the measure of uncertainty importance in terms of the relative impact of distributional changes of inputs on the change of an output distribution

  4. On the method of logarithmic cumulants for parametric probability density function estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krylov, Vladimir A; Moser, Gabriele; Serpico, Sebastiano B; Zerubia, Josiane

    2013-10-01

    Parameter estimation of probability density functions is one of the major steps in the area of statistical image and signal processing. In this paper we explore several properties and limitations of the recently proposed method of logarithmic cumulants (MoLC) parameter estimation approach which is an alternative to the classical maximum likelihood (ML) and method of moments (MoM) approaches. We derive the general sufficient condition for a strong consistency of the MoLC estimates which represents an important asymptotic property of any statistical estimator. This result enables the demonstration of the strong consistency of MoLC estimates for a selection of widely used distribution families originating from (but not restricted to) synthetic aperture radar image processing. We then derive the analytical conditions of applicability of MoLC to samples for the distribution families in our selection. Finally, we conduct various synthetic and real data experiments to assess the comparative properties, applicability and small sample performance of MoLC notably for the generalized gamma and K families of distributions. Supervised image classification experiments are considered for medical ultrasound and remote-sensing SAR imagery. The obtained results suggest that MoLC is a feasible and computationally fast yet not universally applicable alternative to MoM. MoLC becomes especially useful when the direct ML approach turns out to be unfeasible.

  5. The cumulative load of depressive illness is associated with cognitive function in the remitted state of unipolar depressive disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasselbalch, Jacob; Knorr, U; Hasselbalch, S G

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the cumulative number, duration and subtypes (severity and presence of psychotic features) of previous episodes of depression in patients with unipolar depressive disorder in a remitted state are associated with decreased global cognitive function. METHODS: Via t...

  6. Cumulative incidence for wait-list death in relation to length of queue for coronary-artery bypass grafting: a cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Levy Adrian R

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In deciding where to undergo coronary-artery bypass grafting, the length of surgical wait lists is often the only information available to cardiologists and their patients. Our objective was to compare the cumulative incidence for death on the wait list according to the length of wait lists at the time of registration for the operation. Methods The study cohort included 8966 patients who registered to undergo isolated coronary-artery bypass grafting (82.4% men; 71.9% semi-urgent; 22.4% non-urgent. The patients were categorized according to wait-list clearance time at registration: either "1 month or less" or "more than 1 month". Cumulative incidence for wait-list death was compared between the groups, and the significance of difference was tested by means of regression models. Results Urgent patients never registered on a wait list with a clearance time of more than 1 month. Semi-urgent patients registered on shorter wait lists more often than non-urgent patients (79.1% vs. 44.7%. In semi-urgent and non-urgent patients, the observed proportion of wait-list deaths by 52 weeks was lower in category "1 month or less" than in category "more than 1 month" (0.8% [49 deaths] vs. 1.6% [39 deaths], P P Conclusion Long wait lists for coronary-artery bypass grafting are associated with increased probability that a patient dies before surgery. Physicians who advise patients where to undergo cardiac revascularization should consider the risk of pre-surgical death that is associated with the length of a surgical wait list.

  7. Interactive Contributions of Cumulative Peer Stress and Executive Function Deficits to Depression in Early Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agoston, Anna M.; Rudolph, Karen D.

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to peer stress contributes to adolescent depression, yet not all youth experience these effects. Thus, it is important to identify individual differences that shape the consequences of peer stress. This research investigated the interactive contribution of cumulative peer stress during childhood (second-fifth grades) and executive…

  8. The cumulative effect of smoking at age 50, 60, and 70 on functional ability at age 75

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Støvring, Nina; Avlund, Kirsten; Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten

    2004-01-01

    of accumulating the smoking habits over the examinations. Cumulated former smokers have a larger risk of having reduced functional ability at age 75 (OR: 1.35 (1.13-1.61)) compared with never smokers. The odds ratios of reduced functional ability were 2.46 (1.44-4.17) among cumulated smokers of 1-14 grams......AIMS: As elderly people form a steadily growing part of the population in most parts of the world we are in need of knowledge of the influence of modifiable lifestyle factors on functional ability late in life. This study aims to examine the cumulative impact of smoking from age 50 to 70...... on functional ability at age 75. METHODS: 387 men and women born in 1914 and living in seven municipalities in the western part of the County of Copenhagen were followed for 25 years with examinations in 1964, 1974, 1984, and 1989. Associations between smoking and functional ability were examined using multiple...

  9. Pelvic incidence variation among individuals: functional influence versus genetic determinism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hong-Fang; Zhao, Chang-Qing

    2018-03-20

    Pelvic incidence has become one of the most important sagittal parameters in spinal surgery. Despite its great importance, pelvic incidence can vary from 33° to 85° in the normal population. The reasons for this great variability in pelvic incidence remain unexplored. The objective of this article is to present some possible interpretations for the great variability in pelvic incidence under both normal and pathological conditions and to further understand the determinants of pelvic incidence from the perspective of the functional requirements for bipedalism and genetic backgrounds via a literature review. We postulate that both pelvic incidence and pelvic morphology may be genetically predetermined, and a great variability in pelvic incidence may already exist even before birth. This great variability may also serve as a further reminder that the sagittal profile, bipedal locomotion mode, and genetic background of every individual are unique and specific, and clinicians should avoid making universally applying broad generalizations of pelvic incidence. Although PI is an important parameter and there are many theories behind its variability, we still do not have clear mechanistic answers.

  10. Cumulative increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus with increasing triglyceride glucose index in normal-weight people: The Rural Chinese Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ming; Wang, Bingyuan; Liu, Yu; Sun, Xizhuo; Luo, Xinping; Wang, Chongjian; Li, Linlin; Zhang, Lu; Ren, Yongcheng; Zhao, Yang; Zhou, Junmei; Han, Chengyi; Zhao, Jingzhi; Hu, Dongsheng

    2017-03-01

    Risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increased in metabolically obese but normal-weight people. However, we have limited knowledge of how to prevent T2DM in normal-weight people. We aimed to evaluate the association between triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and incident T2DM among normal-weight people in rural China. We included data from 5706 people with normal body mass index (BMI) (18.5-23.9 kg/m 2 ) without baseline T2DM in a rural Chinese cohort followed for a median of 6.0 years. A Cox proportional-hazard model was used to assess the risk of incident T2DM by quartiles of TyG index and difference in TyG index between follow-up and baseline (TyG-D), estimating hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A generalized additive plot was used to show the nonparametric smoothed exposure-response association between risk of T2DM and TyG index as a continuous variable. TyG was calculated as ln [fasting triglyceride level (mg/dl) × fasting plasma glucose level (mg/dl)/2]. Risk of incident T2DM was increased with quartiles 2, 3 and 4 versus quartile 1 of TyG index (adjusted HR [aHR] 2.48 [95% CI 1.20-5.11], 3.77 [1.83-7.79], and 5.30 [2.21-12.71], P trend  index). Risk of incident T2DM was increased with quartile 4 versus quartile 1 of TyG-D (aHR 3.91 [2.22-6.87]). The results were consistent when analyses were restricted to participants without baseline metabolic syndrome and impaired fasting glucose level. The generalized additive plot showed cumulative increased risk of T2DM with increasing TyG index. Risk of incident T2DM is increased with increasing TyG index among rural Chinese people, so the index might be an important indicator for identifying people at high risk of T2DM.

  11. Cumulant generating function formula of heat transfer in ballistic systems with lead-lead coupling and general nonlinear systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huanan

    2013-03-01

    Based on a two-time observation protocol, we consider heat transfer in a given time interval tM in a lead-junction-lead system taking coupling between the leads into account. In view of the two-time observation, consistency conditions are carefully verified in our specific family of quantum histories. Furthermore, its implication is briefly explored. Then using the nonequilibrium Green's function method, we obtain an exact formula for the cumulant generating function for heat transfer between the two leads, valid in both transient and steady-state regimes. Also, a compact formula for the cumulant generating function in the long-time limit is derived, for which the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation symmetry is explicitly verified. In addition, we briefly discuss Di Ventra's repartitioning trick regarding whether the repartitioning procedure of the total Hamiltonian affects the nonequilibrium steady-state current fluctuation. All kinds of properties of nonequilibrium current fluctuations, such as the fluctuation theorem in different time regimes, could be readily given according to these exact formulas. Finally a practical formalism dealing with cumulants of heat transfer across general nonlinear quantum systems is established based on field theoretical/algebraic method.

  12. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, Paul N.; Scheuer, Ernest M.; Nolty, Robert

    1990-01-01

    Overflow and underflow in sums prevented. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program, CUMPOIS, one of two computer programs that make calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines cumulative Poisson distribution, used to evaluate cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and cdf for X (sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Written in C.

  13. GammaCHI: a package for the inversion and computation of the gamma and chi-square cumulative distribution functions (central and noncentral)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Gil (Amparo); J. Segura (Javier); N.M. Temme (Nico)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractA Fortran 90 module GammaCHI for computing and inverting the gamma and chi-square cumulative distribution functions (central and noncentral) is presented. The main novelty of this package is the reliable and accurate inversion routines for the noncentral cumulative distribution

  14. Sensory and Motor Peripheral Nerve Function and Incident Mobility Disability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ward, R. E.; Boudreau, R. M.; Caserotti, P.

    2014-01-01

    ObjectivesTo assess the relationship between sensorimotor nerve function and incident mobility disability over 10years. DesignProspective cohort study with longitudinal analysis. SettingTwo U.S. clinical sites. ParticipantsPopulation-based sample of community-dwelling older adults with no mobility...

  15. Cumulative role of rare and common putative functional genetic variants at NPAS3 in schizophrenia susceptibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Peñas, Javier; Arrojo, Manuel; Paz, Eduardo; Brenlla, Julio; Páramo, Mario; Costas, Javier

    2015-10-01

    Schizophrenia may be considered a human-specific disorder arisen as a maladaptive by-product of human-specific brain evolution. Therefore, genetic variants involved in susceptibility to schizophrenia may be identified among those genes related to acquisition of human-specific traits. NPAS3, a transcription factor involved in central nervous system development and neurogenesis, seems to be implicated in the evolution of human brain, as it is the human gene with most human-specific accelerated elements (HAEs), i.e., .mammalian conserved regulatory sequences with accelerated evolution in the lineage leading to humans after human-chimpanzee split. We hypothesize that any nucleotide variant at the NPAS3 HAEs may lead to altered susceptibility to schizophrenia. Twenty-one variants at these HAEs detected by the 1000 genomes Project, as well as five additional variants taken from psychiatric genome-wide association studies, were genotyped in 538 schizophrenic patients and 539 controls from Galicia. Analyses at the haplotype level or based on the cumulative role of the variants assuming different susceptibility models did not find any significant association in spite of enough power under several plausible scenarios regarding direction of effect and the specific role of rare and common variants. These results suggest that, contrary to our hypothesis, the special evolution of the NPAS3 HAEs in Homo relaxed the strong constraint on sequence that characterized these regions during mammalian evolution, allowing some sequence changes without any effect on schizophrenia risk. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Cumulative Lung Dose for Several Motion Management Strategies as a Function of Pretreatment Patient Parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hugo, Geoffrey D.; Campbell, Jonathon; Zhang Tiezhi; Yan Di

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate patient parameters that may predict for relative differences in cumulative four-dimensional (4D) lung dose among several motion management strategies. Methods and Materials: Deformable image registration and dose accumulation were used to generate 4D treatment plans for 18 patients with 4D computed tomography scans. Three plans were generated to simulate breath hold at normal inspiration, target tracking with the beam aperture, and mid-ventilation aperture (control of the target at the mean daily position and application of an iteratively computed margin to compensate for respiration). The relative reduction in mean lung dose (MLD) between breath hold and mid-ventilation aperture (ΔMLD BH ) and between target tracking and mid-ventilation aperture (ΔMLD TT ) was calculated. Associations between these two variables and parameters of the lesion (excursion, size, location, and deformation) and dose distribution (local dose gradient near the target) were also calculated. Results: The largest absolute and percentage differences in MLD were 1.0 Gy and 21.5% between breath hold and mid-ventilation aperture. ΔMLD BH was significantly associated (p TT was significantly associated with excursion, deformation, and local dose gradient. A linear model was constructed to represent ΔMLD vs. excursion. For each 5 mm of excursion, target tracking reduced the MLD by 4% compared with the results of a mid-ventilation aperture plan. For breath hold, the reduction was 5% per 5 mm of excursion. Conclusions: The relative difference in MLD among different motion management strategies varied with patient and tumor characteristics for a given dosimetric target coverage. Tumor excursion is useful to aid in stratifying patients according to appropriate motion management strategies.

  17. Rising tides, cumulative impacts and cascading changes to estuarine ecosystem functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Meara, Theresa A; Hillman, Jenny R; Thrush, Simon F

    2017-08-31

    In coastal ecosystems, climate change affects multiple environmental factors, yet most predictive models are based on simple cause-and-effect relationships. Multiple stressor scenarios are difficult to predict because they can create a ripple effect through networked ecosystem functions. Estuarine ecosystem function relies on an interconnected network of physical and biological processes. Estuarine habitats play critical roles in service provision and represent global hotspots for organic matter processing, nutrient cycling and primary production. Within these systems, we predicted functional changes in the impacts of land-based stressors, mediated by changing light climate and sediment permeability. Our in-situ field experiment manipulated sea level, nutrient supply, and mud content. We used these stressors to determine how interacting environmental stressors influence ecosystem function and compared results with data collected along elevation gradients to substitute space for time. We show non-linear, multi-stressor effects deconstruct networks governing ecosystem function. Sea level rise altered nutrient processing and impacted broader estuarine services ameliorating nutrient and sediment pollution. Our experiment demonstrates how the relationships between nutrient processing and biological/physical controls degrade with environmental stress. Our results emphasise the importance of moving beyond simple physically-forced relationships to assess consequences of climate change in the context of ecosystem interactions and multiple stressors.

  18. A Cumulative Rainfall Function for Subhourly Design Storm in Mediterranean Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Carbone

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Design storms are very useful in many hydrological and hydraulic practices and are obtained from statistical analysis of precipitation records. However considering design storms, which are often quite unlike the natural rainstorms, may result in designing oversized or undersized drainage facilities. For these reasons, in this study, a two-parameter double exponential function is proposed to parameterize historical storm events. The proposed function has been assessed against the storms selected from 5-year rainfall time series with a 1-minute resolution, measured by three meteorological stations located in Calabria, Italy. In particular, a nonlinear least square optimization has been used to identify parameters. In previous studies, several evaluation methods to measure the goodness of fit have been used with excellent performances. One parameter is related to the centroid of the rain distribution; the second one is related to high values of the standard deviation of the kurtosis for the selected events. Finally, considering the similarity between the proposed function and the Gumbel function, the two parameters have been computed with the method of moments; in this case, the correlation values were lower than those computed with nonlinear least squares optimization but sufficiently accurate for designing purposes.

  19. On the Use of a Cumulative Distribution as a Utility Function in Educational or Employment Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-02-01

    economic applications. LI In the previous section, we discussed some properties of the TNU function. A GBU with a> 1 and b> 1 has similar characteristics...76/443 1 Dir :ctor, Office of Manpower Utilization Maxwell AFB, AL 36112 HQ, Marine Corps ( MPU ) BCB, Bldg. 2009 1 Dr. Earl A. Alluisi Quantico, VA

  20. The Cumulative Effect of Neglect and Failure to Thrive on Cognitive Functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackner, Laura M.; And Others

    1997-01-01

    A study of 177 low-income children (ages 3-30 months) investigated the relationship among neglect, failure to thrive (FTT), and cognitive functioning. The cognitive performance of children who had been neglected and were FTT was significantly below that of children who had only one of the variables and typical children. (Author/CR)

  1. A comparison of alternative methods of calculating complementary cumulative distribution functions of health effects following an atmospheric radioactive release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ponting, A.C.; Nair, S.

    1984-04-01

    A concept extensively used in studying the consequences of accidental atmospheric radioactive releases is that of the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function, CCDF. Various methods of calculating CCDFs have been developed with particular applications in putting degraded core accidents in perspective and in identifying release sequences leading to high risks. This note compares three methods with specific reference to their accuracy and computational efficiency. For two of the methods (that used in the US Reactor Safety Study code CRAC2 and extended version of that method), the effects of varying the sector width and considering site-specific population distributions have been determined. For the third method it is only necessary to consider the effects of site-specific population distributions. (author)

  2. Predictors of psychological functioning in children with cancer: disposition and cumulative life stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard Sharp, Katianne M; Rowe, Anjoli E; Russell, Kathryn; Long, Alanna; Phipps, Sean

    2015-07-01

    This study examined psychological functioning in children with a history of cancer and a matched sample of healthy peers, while exploring the roles of disposition and stressful life events. Participants were 255 children with a history of cancer and 101 demographically matched children (8-17 years). Children completed measures of depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS); history of stressful life events; and dispositional factors, including optimism and a five-factor personality measure. Children with cancer did not differ from peers with regard to depression and PTSS, but reported significantly lower anxiety. In hierarchical regressions, children's depression, anxiety, and PTSS scores were largely predicted by dispositional variables and, to a lesser extent, stressful life events, after controlling for demographics and health status. Children's psychological functioning is predicted primarily by disposition, and secondarily by history of stressful life events, with health status (i.e., cancer versus control) accounting for minimal, and often non-significant variance in children's functioning. These findings further support that children with cancer are generally resilient, with factors predictive of their adjustment difficulties mirroring those of children without history of serious illness. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Rational Arithmetic Mathematica Functions to Evaluate the Two-Sided One Sample K-S Cumulative Sampling Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Randall Brown

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the most widely used goodness-of-fit tests is the two-sided one sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S test which has been implemented by many computer statistical software packages. To calculate a two-sided p value (evaluate the cumulative sampling distribution, these packages use various methods including recursion formulae, limiting distributions, and approximations of unknown accuracy developed over thirty years ago. Based on an extensive literature search for the two-sided one sample K-S test, this paper identifies an exact formula for sample sizes up to 31, six recursion formulae, and one matrix formula that can be used to calculate a p value. To ensure accurate calculation by avoiding catastrophic cancelation and eliminating rounding error, each of these formulae is implemented in rational arithmetic. For the six recursion formulae and the matrix formula, computational experience for sample sizes up to 500 shows that computational times are increasing functions of both the sample size and the number of digits in the numerator and denominator integers of the rational number test statistic. The computational times of the seven formulae vary immensely but the Durbin recursion formula is almost always the fastest. Linear search is used to calculate the inverse of the cumulative sampling distribution (find the confidence interval half-width and tables of calculated half-widths are presented for sample sizes up to 500. Using calculated half-widths as input, computational times for the fastest formula, the Durbin recursion formula, are given for sample sizes up to two thousand.

  4. The functional origin of dinosaur bipedalism: Cumulative evidence from bipedally inclined reptiles and disinclined mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persons, W Scott; Currie, Philip J

    2017-05-07

    Bipedalism is a trait basal to, and widespread among, dinosaurs. It has been previously argued that bipedalism arose in the ancestors of dinosaurs for the function of freeing the forelimbs to serve as predatory weapons. However, this argument does not explain why bipedalism was retained among numerous herbivorous groups of dinosaurs. We argue that bipedalism arose in the dinosaur line for the purpose of enhanced cursoriality. Modern facultatively bipedal lizards offer an analog for the first stages in the evolution of dinosaurian bipedalism. Many extant lizards assume a bipedal stance while attempting to flee predators at maximum speed. Bipedalism, when combined with a caudofemoralis musculature, has cursorial advantages because the caudofemoralis provides a greater source of propulsion to the hindlimbs than is generally available to the forelimbs. That cursorial advantage explains the relative abundance of cursorial facultative bipeds and obligate bipeds among fossil diapsids and the relative scarcity of either among mammals. Having lost their caudofemoralis in the Permian, perhaps in the context of adapting to a fossorial lifestyle, the mammalian line has been disinclined towards bipedalism, but, having never lost the caudofemoralis of their ancestors, cursorial avemetatarsalians (bird-line archosaurs) were naturally inclined towards bipedalism. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Structure, functioning, and cumulative stressors of Mediterranean deep-sea ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tecchio, Samuele; Coll, Marta; Sardà, Francisco

    2015-06-01

    Environmental stressors, such as climate fluctuations, and anthropogenic stressors, such as fishing, are of major concern for the management of deep-sea ecosystems. Deep-water habitats are limited by primary productivity and are mainly dependent on the vertical input of organic matter from the surface. Global change over the latest decades is imparting variations in primary productivity levels across oceans, and thus it has an impact on the amount of organic matter landing on the deep seafloor. In addition, anthropogenic impacts are now reaching the deep ocean. The Mediterranean Sea, the largest enclosed basin on the planet, is not an exception. However, ecosystem-level studies of response to varying food input and anthropogenic stressors on deep-sea ecosystems are still scant. We present here a comparative ecological network analysis of three food webs of the deep Mediterranean Sea, with contrasting trophic structure. After modelling the flows of these food webs with the Ecopath with Ecosim approach, we compared indicators of network structure and functioning. We then developed temporal dynamic simulations varying the organic matter input to evaluate its potential effect. Results show that, following the west-to-east gradient in the Mediterranean Sea of marine snow input, organic matter recycling increases, net production decreases to negative values and trophic organisation is overall reduced. The levels of food-web activity followed the gradient of organic matter availability at the seafloor, confirming that deep-water ecosystems directly depend on marine snow and are therefore influenced by variations of energy input, such as climate-driven changes. In addition, simulations of varying marine snow arrival at the seafloor, combined with the hypothesis of a possible fishery expansion on the lower continental slope in the western basin, evidence that the trawling fishery may pose an impact which could be an order of magnitude stronger than a climate

  6. Assessing stress-related treatment needs among girls at risk for poor functional outcomes: The impact of cumulative adversity, criterion traumas, and non-criterion events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansing, Amy E; Plante, Wendy Y; Beck, Audrey N

    2017-05-01

    Despite growing recognition that cumulative adversity (total stressor exposure, including complex trauma), increases the risk for psychopathology and impacts development, assessment strategies lag behind: Adversity-related mental health needs (symptoms, functional impairment, maladaptive coping) are typically assessed in response to only one qualifying Criterion-A traumatic event. This is especially problematic for youth at-risk for health and academic disparities who experience cumulative adversity, including non-qualifying events (separation from caregivers) which may produce more impairing symptomatology. Data from 118 delinquent girls demonstrate: (1) an average of 14 adverse Criterion-A and non-Criterion event exposures; (2) serious maladaptive coping strategies (self-injury) directly in response to cumulative adversity; (3) more cumulative adversity-related than worst-event related symptomatology and functional impairment; and (4) comparable symptomatology, but greater functional impairment, in response to non-Criterion events. These data support the evaluation of mental health needs in response to cumulative adversity for optimal identification and tailoring of services in high-risk populations to reduce disparities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Reduction of CMIP5 models bias using Cumulative Distribution Function transform and impact on crops yields simulations across West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moise Famien, Adjoua; Defrance, Dimitri; Sultan, Benjamin; Janicot, Serge; Vrac, Mathieu

    2017-04-01

    Different CMIP exercises show that the simulations of the future/current temperature and precipitation are complex with a high uncertainty degree. For example, the African monsoon system is not correctly simulated and most of the CMIP5 models underestimate the precipitation. Therefore, Global Climate Models (GCMs) show significant systematic biases that require bias correction before it can be used in impacts studies. Several methods of bias corrections have been developed for several years and are increasingly using more complex statistical methods. The aims of this work is to show the interest of the CDFt (Cumulative Distribution Function transfom (Michelangeli et al.,2009)) method to reduce the data bias from 29 CMIP5 GCMs over Africa and to assess the impact of bias corrected data on crop yields prediction by the end of the 21st century. In this work, we apply the CDFt to daily data covering the period from 1950 to 2099 (Historical and RCP8.5) and we correct the climate variables (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind) by the use of the new daily database from the EU project WATer and global CHange (WATCH) available from 1979 to 2013 as reference data. The performance of the method is assessed in several cases. First, data are corrected based on different calibrations periods and are compared, on one hand, with observations to estimate the sensitivity of the method to the calibration period and, on other hand, with another bias-correction method used in the ISIMIP project. We find that, whatever the calibration period used, CDFt corrects well the mean state of variables and preserves their trend, as well as daily rainfall occurrence and intensity distributions. However, some differences appear when compared to the outputs obtained with the method used in ISIMIP and show that the quality of the correction is strongly related to the reference data. Secondly, we validate the bias correction method with the agronomic simulations (SARRA-H model (Kouressy

  8. Characteristics of protons as a function of the cumulative variable in CTa collisions at 4.2 GeV/c per nucleon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gasparyan, A.P.; Ivanovskaya, I.A.; Mekhtiev, R.R.

    1985-01-01

    In CTa collisions at 4.2 GeV/c per nucleon we analyze the characteristics of protons with momentum p> or =0.7 GeV/c and certain properties of π - mesons as functions of the cumulative variable β 0 . We observe emission of protons with values of the variable β 0 >1, and in the region β 0 approx.1 the dependence of the proton characteristics and also the π - -meson accompaniment as a function of β 0 changes qualitatively. The experimental results are compared with the predictions of the cascade model. The model satisfactorily describes the average characteristics of particles accompanying the emission of the cumulative proton, but in the cumulative region ( β 0 > or approx. =1) it does not agree with the experimental average characteristics of the protons having the largest value of β 0 in an event

  9. Adaptive sampling based on the cumulative distribution function of order statistics to delineate heavy-metal contaminated soils using kriging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juang, K.-W.; Lee, D.-Y.; Teng, Y.-L.

    2005-01-01

    Correctly classifying 'contaminated' areas in soils, based on the threshold for a contaminated site, is important for determining effective clean-up actions. Pollutant mapping by means of kriging is increasingly being used for the delineation of contaminated soils. However, those areas where the kriged pollutant concentrations are close to the threshold have a high possibility for being misclassified. In order to reduce the misclassification due to the over- or under-estimation from kriging, an adaptive sampling using the cumulative distribution function of order statistics (CDFOS) was developed to draw additional samples for delineating contaminated soils, while kriging. A heavy-metal contaminated site in Hsinchu, Taiwan was used to illustrate this approach. The results showed that compared with random sampling, adaptive sampling using CDFOS reduced the kriging estimation errors and misclassification rates, and thus would appear to be a better choice than random sampling, as additional sampling is required for delineating the 'contaminated' areas. - A sampling approach was derived for drawing additional samples while kriging

  10. The stochastic resonance for the incidence function model of metapopulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Zhou, Ruo-Wei; Li, Yun-Xian; Qian, Zhen-Wei

    2017-06-01

    A stochastic model with endogenous and exogenous periodicities is proposed in this paper on the basis of metapopulation dynamics to model the crop yield losses due to pests and diseases. The rationale is that crop yield losses occur because the physiology of the growing crop is negatively affected by pests and diseases in a dynamic way over time as crop both grows and develops. Metapopulation dynamics can thus be used to model the resultant crop yield losses. The stochastic metapopulation process is described by using the Simplified Incidence Function model (IFM). Compared to the original IFMs, endogenous and exogenous periodicities are considered in the proposed model to handle the cyclical patterns observed in pest infestations, diseases epidemics, and exogenous affecting factors such as temperature and rainfalls. Agricultural loss data in China are used to fit the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that: (1) Model with endogenous and exogenous periodicities is a better fit; (2) When the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are negatively correlated, EIL or the cost of loss is monotonically increasing; when the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are positively correlated, an outbreak of pests and diseases might occur; (3) If the internal system fluctuations and external environmental fluctuations are positively correlated, an optimal patch size can be identified which will greatly weaken the effects of external environmental influence and hence inhibit pest infestations and disease epidemics.

  11. Detecting spatial patterns with the cumulant function – Part 2: An application to El Niño

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Yiou

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The spatial coherence of a measured variable (e.g. temperature or pressure is often studied to determine the regions of high variability or to find teleconnections, i.e. correlations between specific regions. While usual methods to find spatial patterns, such as Principal Components Analysis (PCA, are constrained by linear symmetries, the dependence of variables such as temperature or pressure at different locations is generally nonlinear. In particular, large deviations from the sample mean are expected to be strongly affected by such nonlinearities. Here we apply a newly developed nonlinear technique (Maxima of Cumulant Function, MCF for detection of typical spatial patterns that largely deviate from the mean. In order to test the technique and to introduce the methodology, we focus on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and its spatial patterns. We find nonsymmetric temperature patterns corresponding to El Niño and La Niña, and we compare the results of MCF with other techniques, such as the symmetric solutions of PCA, and the nonsymmetric solutions of Nonlinear PCA (NLPCA. We found that MCF solutions are more reliable than the NLPCA fits, and can capture mixtures of principal components. Finally, we apply Extreme Value Theory on the temporal variations extracted from our methodology. We find that the tails of the distribution of extreme temperatures during La Niña episodes is bounded, while the tail during El Niños is less likely to be bounded. This implies that the mean spatial patterns of the two phases are asymmetric, as well as the behaviour of their extremes.

  12. Fractures and dislocations of the hand in polytrauma patients : Incidence, injury pattern and functional outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ferree, Steven; van der Vliet, Quirine M J; van Heijl, Mark; Houwert, Roderick M; Leenen, Luke P H; Hietbrink, Falco

    INTRODUCTION: Injuries of the hand can cause significant functional impairment, diminished quality of life and delayed return to work. However, the incidence and functional outcome of hand injuries in polytrauma patients is currently unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence,

  13. Monte Carlo calculations of ligth-ion sputtering as a function of the incident angle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haggmark, L.G.; Biersack, J.P.

    1980-01-01

    The sputtering of metal surfaces by light ions has been studied as a function of the incident angle using an extension of the TRIM Monte Carlo computer program. Sputtering yields were calculated at both normal and oblique angles of incidence for H, D, T, and 4 He impinging on Ni, Mo, and Au targets with energies <= 10 keV. Direct comparisons are made with the most recent experimental and theoretical results. There is generally good agreement with the experimental data although our calculated maximum in the yield usually occurs at a smaller incident angle, measured from the surface normal. The enhancement of the yield at large incident angles over that at normal incidence is observed to be a complex function of the incident ion's energy and mass and the target's atomic weight and surface binding energy. (orig.)

  14. Effectiveness of a community-based educational programme in reducing the cumulative incidence and prevalence of human Taenia solium cysticercosis in Burkina Faso in 2011–14 (EFECAB: a cluster-randomised controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hélène Carabin, PhD

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Summary: Background: The effectiveness of drug-free interventions in controlling human cysticercosis is not well known. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of a community-based educational intervention in reducing the frequency of human cysticercosis in Burkina Faso. Methods: We did a cluster-randomised controlled trial between 2011 and 2014. 60 eligible villages from three provinces (Boulkiemdé, Sanguié, and Nayala were randomly allocated to the intervention or control group. Villages raising pigs, that were not a regional capital or located on a main road, that were more than 20 km from Ouagadougou or 5 km from one another, were eligible. In each village, 60 participants were asked for blood samples at baseline, 18 months later (before randomisation, and 18 months after randomisation. Villages were block randomised (1:1 by pig-raising department immediately after the pre-randomisation visit. The intervention aimed to improve knowledge of Taenia solium transmission and control through screening and structured discussion of a 52-min movie, and to increase community self-efficacy through a Self-esteem, Associative strengths, Resourcefulness, Action planning, Responsibility (SARAR approach via the Participatory Hygiene and Sanitation Transformation (PHAST model. The primary outcome was active cysticercosis, defined as the presence of circulating antigens detected by use of B158/B60 ELISA. Effectiveness measured at the village level was estimated by use of three Bayesian hierarchical models. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT0309339. Findings: Two villages in the same randomisation block were excluded, resulting in a final sample size of 58 villages. Overall, the intervention tended towards a decrease in the cumulative incidence of active cysticercosis from baseline to after randomisation (adjusted cumulative incidence ratio 0·65, 95% Bayesian credible interval [95% CrI] 0·39–1·05 and a decrease in active

  15. A Monte Carlo procedure for the construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions for comparison with the EPA release limits for radioactive waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helton, J.C.; Shiver, A.W.

    1994-10-01

    A Monte Carlo procedure for the construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for comparison with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) release limits for radioactive waste disposal (40 CFR 191, Subpart B) is described and illustrated with results from a recent performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The Monte Carlo procedure produces CCDF estimates similar to those obtained with stratified sampling in several recent PAs for the WIPP. The advantages of the Monte Carlo procedure over stratified sampling include increased resolution in the calculation of probabilities for complex scenarios involving drilling intrusions and better use of the necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that underlie CCDF construction.

  16. A Monte Carlo procedure for the construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions for comparison with the EPA release limits for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Shiver, A.W.

    1994-10-01

    A Monte Carlo procedure for the construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for comparison with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) release limits for radioactive waste disposal (40 CFR 191, Subpart B) is described and illustrated with results from a recent performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The Monte Carlo procedure produces CCDF estimates similar to those obtained with stratified sampling in several recent PAs for the WIPP. The advantages of the Monte Carlo procedure over stratified sampling include increased resolution in the calculation of probabilities for complex scenarios involving drilling intrusions and better use of the necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that underlie CCDF construction

  17. Sense of life worth living (ikigai) and incident functional disability in elderly Japanese: The Tsurugaya Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Kentaro; Kaiho, Yu; Tomata, Yasutake; Narita, Mamoru; Tanji, Fumiya; Sugiyama, Kemmyo; Sugawara, Yumi; Tsuji, Ichiro

    2017-04-01

    To test the hypothesis that elderly persons who feel ikigai (a sense of life worth living) have a lower risk of incident functional disability than those who do not. Recent studies have suggested that ikigai impacts on mortality. However, its impact upon disability is unknown. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between ikigai and incident functional disability among elderly persons. We conducted a prospective cohort study of 830 Japanese elderly persons aged ≥70 years as a comprehensive geriatric assessment in 2003. Information on ikigai was collected by self-reported questionnaire. Data on functional disability were retrieved from the public Long-term Care Insurance database in which participants were followed up for 11 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incidence of functional disability were calculated for three groups delineated according to the presence of ikigai (“no”, “uncertain” or “yes”) using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The 11-year incidence of functional disability was 53.3% (442 cases). As compared with the “no” group, the multiple-adjusted HR (95% CI) of incident functional disability was 0.61 (0.36–1.02) for the “uncertain” group and 0.50 (0.30–0.84) for the “yes” group. A stronger degree of ikigai is significantly associated with a lower risk of incident functional disability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Filaggrin loss-of-function mutations and incident cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skaaby, T; Husemoen, L L N; Thyssen, J P

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Loss-of-function mutations in the filaggrin gene (FLG) could have opposing effects on cancer risk, as mutations are associated with both 10% higher serum vitamin D levels, which may protect against cancer, and with impaired skin barrier function, which may lead to higher cancer...... (HR 1·09, 95% CI 0·61-1·94), urinary cancer (HR 1·30, 95% CI 0·51-3·29), malignant melanoma (HR 1·03, 95% CI 0·41-2·58) and NMSC (HR 0·70, 95% CI 0·47-1·05). Among participants aged over 60 years at baseline, we found statistically significant lower risks of all cancers and NMSC among FLG mutation...

  19. Multireference configuration interaction theory using cumulant reconstruction with internal contraction of density matrix renormalization group wave function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saitow, Masaaki; Kurashige, Yuki; Yanai, Takeshi

    2013-07-28

    We report development of the multireference configuration interaction (MRCI) method that can use active space scalable to much larger size references than has previously been possible. The recent development of the density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) method in multireference quantum chemistry offers the ability to describe static correlation in a large active space. The present MRCI method provides a critical correction to the DMRG reference by including high-level dynamic correlation through the CI treatment. When the DMRG and MRCI theories are combined (DMRG-MRCI), the full internal contraction of the reference in the MRCI ansatz, including contraction of semi-internal states, plays a central role. However, it is thought to involve formidable complexity because of the presence of the five-particle rank reduced-density matrix (RDM) in the Hamiltonian matrix elements. To address this complexity, we express the Hamiltonian matrix using commutators, which allows the five-particle rank RDM to be canceled out without any approximation. Then we introduce an approximation to the four-particle rank RDM by using a cumulant reconstruction from lower-particle rank RDMs. A computer-aided approach is employed to derive the exceedingly complex equations of the MRCI in tensor-contracted form and to implement them into an efficient parallel computer code. This approach extends to the size-consistency-corrected variants of MRCI, such as the MRCI+Q, MR-ACPF, and MR-AQCC methods. We demonstrate the capability of the DMRG-MRCI method in several benchmark applications, including the evaluation of single-triplet gap of free-base porphyrin using 24 active orbitals.

  20. CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

  1. The effects of balneotherapy on acute, process-related, and cumulative peripheral cardiac responses and pulmonary functions in patients with musculoskeletal disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Şaş, Senem; Toprak Çelenay, Şeyda; Özer Kaya, Derya

    2016-12-20

    This study aimed to evaluate the effects of balneotherapy on acute, process-related, and cumulative peripheral cardiac responses and pulmonary functions in patients with musculoskeletal disorders. Ninety-eight patients with musculoskeletal disorders referred to physiotherapy with balneotherapy were recruited. The patients received balneotherapy for 20 min 5 times per week for 2 weeks. Blood pressure and pulse were measured at the 0th, 5th, 10th, 20th, and 30th minutes during the 1st and 10th sessions. All patients were subjected to pulmonary function testing before balneotherapy and after the 10th session. It was found that systolic blood pressure decreased between the 10th and 20th minutes of the 1st session and between the 10th and 20th minutes and the 20th and 30th minutes of the 10th session (P balneotherapy (P balneotherapy (P Balneotherapy may be effective for improving peripheral cardiopulmonary responses in patients with musculoskeletal disorders.

  2. A Robust Function to Return the Cumulative Density of Non-Central F Distributions in Microsoft Office Excel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, James Byron

    2016-01-01

    The manuscript presents a Visual Basic[superscript R] for Applications function that operates within Microsoft Office Excel[superscript R] to return the area below the curve for a given F within a specified non-central F distribution. The function will be of use to Excel users without programming experience wherever a non-central F distribution is…

  3. CROSSER - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CROSSER, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), can be used independently of one another. CROSSER can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CROSSER calculates the point at which the reliability of a k-out-of-n system equals the common reliability of the n components. It is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The CROSSER program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CROSSER was developed in 1988.

  4. Variation in Cancer Incidence among Patients with ESRD during Kidney Function and Nonfunction Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanik, Elizabeth L; Clarke, Christina A; Snyder, Jon J; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Engels, Eric A

    2016-05-01

    Among patients with ESRD, cancer risk is affected by kidney dysfunction and by immunosuppression after transplant. Assessing patterns across periods of dialysis and kidney transplantation may inform cancer etiology. We evaluated 202,195 kidney transplant candidates and recipients from a linkage between the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients and cancer registries, and compared incidence in kidney function intervals (time with a transplant) with incidence in nonfunction intervals (waitlist or time after transplant failure), adjusting for demographic factors. Incidence of infection-related and immune-related cancer was higher during kidney function intervals than during nonfunction intervals. Incidence was most elevated for Kaposi sarcoma (hazard ratio [HR], 9.1; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 4.7 to 18), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.8 to 3.7), Hodgkin's lymphoma (HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.7 to 5.3), lip cancer (HR, 3.4; 95% CI, 2.0 to 6.0), and nonepithelial skin cancers (HR, 3.8; 95% CI, 2.5 to 5.8). Conversely, ESRD-related cancer incidence was lower during kidney function intervals (kidney cancer: HR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.7 to 0.8 and thyroid cancer: HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6 to 0.8). With each successive interval, incidence changed in alternating directions for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, melanoma, and lung, pancreatic, and nonepithelial skin cancers (higher during function intervals), and kidney and thyroid cancers (higher during nonfunction intervals). For many cancers, incidence remained higher than in the general population across all intervals. These data indicate strong short-term effects of kidney dysfunction and immunosuppression on cancer incidence in patients with ESRD, suggesting a need for persistent cancer screening and prevention. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  5. Direct releases to the surface and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: direct brine release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoelzel, D.M.; O'Brien, D.G.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Smith, L.N.

    2000-01-01

    The following topics related to the treatment of direct brine releases to the surface environment in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented: (i) mathematical description of models; (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e. epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases; (iii) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e. aleatory) uncertainty; and (iv) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for CCDFs. The presented analyses indicate that direct brine releases do not constitute a serious threat to the effectiveness of the WIPP as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, the CCDFs for direct brine releases fall substantially to the left of the boundary line specified in the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194)

  6. Direct releases to the surface and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: cuttings, cavings and spallings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berglund, J.W.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Smith, L.N.

    2000-01-01

    The following topics related to the treatment of cuttings, cavings and spallings releases to the surface environment in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented: (i) mathematical description of models; (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e. epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases; (iii) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e. aleatory) uncertainty; and (iv) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for CCDFs. The presented results indicate that direct releases due to cuttings, cavings and spallings do not constitute a serious threat to the effectiveness of the WIPP as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, the CCDFs for cuttings, cavings and spallings releases fall substantially to the left of the boundary line specified in the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194)

  7. Direct releases to the surface and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Cuttings, cavings and spallings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berglund, J.W.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, Jon Craig; Johnson, J.D.; Smith, L.N.; Anderson, R.P.

    2000-01-01

    The following topics related to the treatment of cuttings, cavings and spallings releases to the surface environment in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented: (1) mathematical description of models. (2) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases, (3) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e., aleatory) uncertainty, and (4) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for CCDFs. The presented results indicate that direct releases due to cuttings, cavings and spallings do not constitute a serious threat to the effectiveness of the WIPP as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, the CCDFs for cuttings, cavings and spallings releases fall substantially to the left of the boundary line specified in the US Environmental Protection Agency standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194)

  8. [Evaluation and cumulative characteristics of heavy metals in soil-Uncaria rhynchophylla system of different functional areas].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jia-Chun; Zeng, Xian-Ping; Zhang, Zhen-Ming; Lin, Shao-Xia; Zhang, Qing-Hai; Lin, Chang-Hu

    2016-10-01

    Soil and Uncaria rhynchophylla in different functional areas were selected for the study,the content of heavy metals such as As, Cd, Cu, Cr, Pb, and Hg in soil and U. rhynchophylla was discussed, the characteristics of their accumulation in the U.rhynchophylla was analyzed, the contamination levels of heavy metals in soil in different functional areas was evaluated. The results showed that content of Cu, As, Pb and Cr in soil was being cropland>woodland>wasteland, content of Cd was being woodland>cropland>wasteland, content of Hg was being cropland>woodland>wasteland. According to quality standard of soil environment, soil Cd in woodland, cropland and wasteland all exceeded the state-level standards, soil Cd in woodland exceeded the secondary standard, soil Hg in cropland and wasteland all exceeded the state-level standards. According to technical conditions of green food producing area, soil Cd in woodland exceeded the limit value of standard. According to Green Trade Standards of Importing Exporting Medicinal Plants Preparations,the content of heavy metals of U.rhynchophylla in cropland,woodland and wasteland were correspond to the specification. From the single factor pollution index, the soil in woodland was polluted by Cd. From the comprehensive pollution index, the soils in different functional areas were not contaminated by heavy metals. The enrichment coefficient of heavy metals such as As, Cu, Cr, and Pb in hook of U.rhynchophylla was being wasteland>woodland>cropland, the enrichment coefficient of Cu in hook of U. rhynchophylla in wasteland was more than 1. Except Cu, the enrichment coefficient of other heavy metals was low. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

  9. Motor function and incident dementia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kueper, Jacqueline Kathleen; Speechley, Mark; Lingum, Navena Rebecca; Montero-Odasso, Manuel

    2017-09-01

    cognitive and mobility decline are interrelated processes, whereby mobility decline coincides or precedes the onset of cognitive decline. to assess whether there is an association between performance on motor function tests and incident dementia. electronic database, grey literature and hand searching identified studies testing for associations between baseline motor function and incident dementia in older adults. of 2,540 potentially relevant documents, 37 met the final inclusion criteria and were reviewed qualitatively. Three meta-analyses were conducted using data from 10 studies. Three main motor domains-upper limb motor function, parkinsonism and lower limb motor function-emerged as associated with increased risk of incident dementia. Studies including older adults without neurological overt disease found a higher risk of incident dementia associated with poorer performance on composite motor function scores, balance and gait velocity (meta-analysis pooled HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.41, 2.65). Mixed results were found across different study samples for upper limb motor function, overall parkinsonism (meta-analysis pooled OR = 3.05, 95% CI: 1.31, 7.08), bradykinesia and rigidity. Studies restricted to older adults with Parkinson's Disease found weak or no association with incident dementia even for motor domains highly associated in less restrictive samples. Tremor was not associated with an increased risk of dementia in any population (meta-analysis pooled HR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.31, 2.03). lower limb motor function was associated with increased risk of developing dementia, while tremor and hand grip strength were not. Our results support future research investigating the inclusion of quantitative motor assessment, specifically gait velocity tests, for clinical dementia risk evaluation. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society.All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  10. NEWTONP - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, NEWTONP, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. NEWTONP can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. NEWTONP calculates the probably p required to yield a given system reliability V for a k-out-of-n system. It can also be used to determine the Clopper-Pearson confidence limits (either one-sided or two-sided) for the parameter p of a Bernoulli distribution. NEWTONP can determine Bayesian probability limits for a proportion (if the beta prior has positive integer parameters). It can determine the percentiles of incomplete beta distributions with positive integer parameters. It can also determine the percentiles of F distributions and the midian plotting positions in probability plotting. NEWTONP is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. NEWTONP is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The NEWTONP program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. NEWTONP was developed in 1988.

  11. Cumulative impact of GM herbicide-tolerant cropping on arable plants assessed through species-based and functional taxonomies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Squire, Geoffrey R; Hawes, Cathy; Begg, Graham S; Young, Mark W

    2009-01-01

    In a gradualist approach to the introduction of crop biotechnology, the findings of experimentation at one scale are used to predict the outcome of moving to a higher scale of deployment. Movement through scales had occurred for certain genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops in the UK as far as large-scale field trials. However, the land area occupied by these trials was still field experiments. Data were used from experiments on the effect of (GMHT) crops and non-GM, or conventional, comparators in fields sown with four crop types (beet, maize, spring and winter oilseed rape) at a total of 250 sites in the UK between 2000 and 2003. Indices of biodiversity were measured in a split-field design comparing GMHT with the farmers' usual weed management. In the original analyses based on the means at site level, effects were detected on the mass of weeds in the three spring crops and the proportion of broadleaf and grass weeds in winter oilseed rape, but not on indices of plant species diversity. To explore the links between site means and total taxa, accumulation curves were constructed based on the number of plant species (a pool of around 250 species in total) and the number of plant functional types (24), inferred from the general life-history characteristics of a species. Species accumulation differed between GMHT and conventional treatments in direction and size, depending on the type of crop and its conventional management. Differences were mostly in the asymptote of the curve, indicative of the maximum number of species found in a treatment, rather than the steepness of the curve. In winter oilseed rape, 8% more species were accumulated in the GMHT treatment, mainly as a result of the encouragement of grass species by the herbicide when applied in the autumn. (Overall, GMHT winter oilseed rape had strong negative effects on both the food web and the potential weed burden by increasing the biomass of grasses and decreasing that of broadleaf weeds

  12. Brain function and structure and risk for incident diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bancks, Michael P; Alonso, Alvaro; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Mosley, Thomas H; Selvin, Elizabeth; Pankow, James S

    2017-12-01

    Diabetes is prospectively associated with cognitive decline. Whether lower cognitive function and worse brain structure are prospectively associated with incident diabetes is unclear. We analyzed data for 10,133 individuals with cognitive function testing (1990-1992) and 1212 individuals with brain magnetic resonance imaging (1993-1994) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort. We estimated hazard ratios for incident diabetes through 2014 after adjustment for traditional diabetes risk factors and cohort attrition. Higher level of baseline cognitive function was associated with lower risk for diabetes (per 1 standard deviation, hazard ratio = 0.94; 95% confidence interval = 0.90, 0.98). This association did not persist after accounting for baseline glucose level, case ascertainment methods, and cohort attrition. No association was observed between any brain magnetic resonance imaging measure and incident diabetes. This is one of the first studies to prospectively evaluate the association between both cognitive function and brain structure and the incidence of diabetes. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Quasiparticles and phonon satellites in spectral functions of semiconductors and insulators: Cumulants applied to the full first-principles theory and the Fröhlich polaron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nery, Jean Paul; Allen, Philip B.; Antonius, Gabriel; Reining, Lucia; Miglio, Anna; Gonze, Xavier

    2018-03-01

    The electron-phonon interaction causes thermal and zero-point motion shifts of electron quasiparticle (QP) energies ɛk(T ) . Other consequences of interactions, visible in angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) experiments, are broadening of QP peaks and appearance of sidebands, contained in the electron spectral function A (k ,ω ) =-ℑ m GR(k ,ω ) /π , where GR is the retarded Green's function. Electronic structure codes (e.g., using density-functional theory) are now available that compute the shifts and start to address broadening and sidebands. Here we consider MgO and LiF, and determine their nonadiabatic Migdal self-energy. The spectral function obtained from the Dyson equation makes errors in the weight and energy of the QP peak and the position and weight of the phonon-induced sidebands. Only one phonon satellite appears, with an unphysically large energy difference (larger than the highest phonon energy) with respect to the QP peak. By contrast, the spectral function from a cumulant treatment of the same self-energy is physically better, giving a quite accurate QP energy and several satellites approximately spaced by the LO phonon energy. In particular, the positions of the QP peak and first satellite agree closely with those found for the Fröhlich Hamiltonian by Mishchenko et al. [Phys. Rev. B 62, 6317 (2000), 10.1103/PhysRevB.62.6317] using diagrammatic Monte Carlo. We provide a detailed comparison between the first-principles MgO and LiF results and those of the Fröhlich Hamiltonian. Such an analysis applies widely to materials with infrared(IR)-active phonons.

  14. The cumulative cost of additional wakefulness: dose-response effects on neurobehavioral functions and sleep physiology from chronic sleep restriction and total sleep deprivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dongen, Hans P A.; Maislin, Greg; Mullington, Janet M.; Dinges, David F.

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To inform the debate over whether human sleep can be chronically reduced without consequences, we conducted a dose-response chronic sleep restriction experiment in which waking neurobehavioral and sleep physiological functions were monitored and compared to those for total sleep deprivation. DESIGN: The chronic sleep restriction experiment involved randomization to one of three sleep doses (4 h, 6 h, or 8 h time in bed per night), which were maintained for 14 consecutive days. The total sleep deprivation experiment involved 3 nights without sleep (0 h time in bed). Each study also involved 3 baseline (pre-deprivation) days and 3 recovery days. SETTING: Both experiments were conducted under standardized laboratory conditions with continuous behavioral, physiological and medical monitoring. PARTICIPANTS: A total of n = 48 healthy adults (ages 21-38) participated in the experiments. INTERVENTIONS: Noctumal sleep periods were restricted to 8 h, 6 h or 4 h per day for 14 days, or to 0 h for 3 days. All other sleep was prohibited. RESULTS: Chronic restriction of sleep periods to 4 h or 6 h per night over 14 consecutive days resulted in significant cumulative, dose-dependent deficits in cognitive performance on all tasks. Subjective sleepiness ratings showed an acute response to sleep restriction but only small further increases on subsequent days, and did not significantly differentiate the 6 h and 4 h conditions. Polysomnographic variables and delta power in the non-REM sleep EEG-a putative marker of sleep homeostasis--displayed an acute response to sleep restriction with negligible further changes across the 14 restricted nights. Comparison of chronic sleep restriction to total sleep deprivation showed that the latter resulted in disproportionately large waking neurobehavioral and sleep delta power responses relative to how much sleep was lost. A statistical model revealed that, regardless of the mode of sleep deprivation, lapses in behavioral alertness

  15. Incidence of Pneumothorax in Patients With Lymphangioleiomyomatosis Undergoing Pulmonary Function and Exercise Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taveira-DaSilva, Angelo M; Julien-Williams, Patricia; Jones, Amanda M; Moss, Joel

    2016-07-01

    Because pneumothorax is frequent in lymphangioleiomyomatosis, patients have expressed concerns regarding the risk of pneumothorax associated with pulmonary function or exercise testing. Indeed, pneumothorax has been reported in patients with lung disease after both of these tests. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of pneumothorax in patients with lymphangioleiomyomatosis during admissions to the National Institutes of Health Clinical Research Center between 1995 and 2015. Medical records were reviewed to identify patients who had a pneumothorax during their stay at the National Institutes of Health. A total of 691 patients underwent 4,523 pulmonary function tests and 1,900 exercise tests. Three patients developed pneumothorax after pulmonary function tests and/or exercise tests. The incidence of pneumothorax associated with lung function testing was 0.14 to 0.29 of 100 patients or 0.02 to 0.04 of 100 tests. The incidence of pneumothorax in patients undergoing exercise testing was 0.14 to 0.28 of 100 patients or 0.05 to 0.10 of 100 tests. The risk of pneumothorax associated with pulmonary function or exercise testing in patients with lymphangioleiomyomatosis is low. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Radionuclide transport in the vicinity of the repository and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stockman, C.T.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Shinta, A.; Smith, L.N.

    2000-01-01

    The following topics related to radionuclide transport in the vicinity of the repository in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant are presented: (i) mathematical description of models; (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e. epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases; (iii) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e. aleatory) uncertainty; and (iv) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for CCDFs. The presented results indicate that no releases to the accessible environment take place due to radionuclide movement through the anhydrite marker beds, through the Dewey Lake Red Beds or directly to the surface, and also that the releases to the Culebra Dolomite are small. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, the CCDFs for release to the Culebra Dolomite fall to the left of the boundary line specified in the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194)

  17. Radionuclide and colloid transport in the Culebra Dolomite and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    RAMSEY, JAMES L.; BLAINE,R.; GARNER,J.W.; HELTON,JON CRAIG; JOHNSON,J.D.; SMITH,L.N.; WALLACE,M.

    2000-05-22

    The following topics related to radionuclide and colloid transport in the Culebra Dolomite in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented: (1) mathematical description of models, (2) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases, and (3) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e., aleatory) uncertainty. The presented results indicate that radionuclide and colloid transport in the Culebra Dolomite does not constitute a serious threat to the effectiveness of the WIPP as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, no radionuclide transport to the boundary with the accessible environment was observed; thus the associated CCDFs for comparison with the boundary line specified in the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) are degenerate in the sense of having a probability of zero of exceeding a release of zero.

  18. Divergent Cumulative Cultural Evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Marriott, Chris; Chebib, Jobran

    2016-01-01

    Divergent cumulative cultural evolution occurs when the cultural evolutionary trajectory diverges from the biological evolutionary trajectory. We consider the conditions under which divergent cumulative cultural evolution can occur. We hypothesize that two conditions are necessary. First that genetic and cultural information are stored separately in the agent. Second cultural information must be transferred horizontally between agents of different generations. We implement a model with these ...

  19. Fractures and dislocations of the hand in polytrauma patients: Incidence, injury pattern and functional outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferree, Steven; van der Vliet, Quirine M J; van Heijl, Mark; Houwert, Roderick M; Leenen, Luke P H; Hietbrink, Falco

    2017-04-01

    Injuries of the hand can cause significant functional impairment, diminished quality of life and delayed return to work. However, the incidence and functional outcome of hand injuries in polytrauma patients is currently unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence, distribution and functional outcome of fractures and dislocation of the hand in polytrauma patients. A single centre retrospective cohort study was performed at a level 1 trauma centre. Polytrauma was defined as patients with an Injury Severity Score of 16 or higher. Fractures and dislocations to the hand were determined. All eligible polytrauma patients with hand injuries were included and a Quick Disability of Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire (QDASH) and Patient-Rated Wrist/Hand Evaluation (PRWHE) were administered. Patients were contacted 1-6 years after trauma. In a cohort of 2046 polytrauma patients 72 patients (3.5%) suffered a hand injury. The functional outcome scores of 52 patients (72%) were obtained. The Metacarpal (48%) and carpal (33%) bones were the most frequently affected. The median QDASH score for all patients with hand injury was 17 (IQR 0-31) and the PRWHE 14 (IQR 0-41). Patients with a concomitant upper extremity injury (p=0.002 for PRWHE, p0.006 for QDASH) and those with higher ISS scores (p=0.034 for PRWHE, QDASH not significant) had worse functional outcome scores. As an example, of the 5 patients with the worst outcome scores 3 suffered an isolated phalangeal injury, all had concomitant upper extremity injury or neurological injuries (3 plexus injuries, 1 severe brain injury). The incidence of hand injuries in polytrauma patients is 3.5%, which is relatively low compared to a general trauma population. Metacarpal and carpal bones were most frequently affected. The functional extremity specific outcome scores are highly influenced by concomitant injuries (upper extremity injuries, neurological injuries and higher ISS). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All

  20. Association of Proteinuria and Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Intact and Reduced Kidney Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnar, Amber O; Eddeen, Anan Bader; Ducharme, Robin; Garg, Amit X; Harel, Ziv; McCallum, Megan K; Perl, Jeffrey; Wald, Ron; Zimmerman, Deborah; Sood, Manish M

    2017-07-06

    Early evidence suggests proteinuria is independently associated with incident atrial fibrillation (AF). We sought to investigate whether the association of proteinuria with incident AF is altered by kidney function. Retrospective cohort study using administrative healthcare databases in Ontario, Canada (2002-2015). A total of 736 666 patients aged ≥40 years not receiving dialysis and with no previous history of AF were included. Proteinuria was defined using the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) and kidney function by the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The primary outcome was time to AF. Cox proportional models were used to determine the hazard ratio for AF censored for death, dialysis, kidney transplant, or end of follow-up. Fine and Grey models were used to determine the subdistribution hazard ratio for AF, with death as a competing event. Median follow-up was 6 years and 44 809 patients developed AF. In adjusted models, ACR and eGFR were associated with AF ( P kidney function (ACR × eGFR interaction, P kidney function (adjusted hazard ratios, 4.5 [95% CI, 4.0-5.1] and 2.6 [95% CI, 2.4-2.8], respectively; referent ACR 0 and eGFR 120). Results were similar in competing risk analyses. Proteinuria increases the risk of incident AF markedly in patients with intact kidney function compared with those with decreased kidney function. Screening and preventative strategies should consider proteinuria as an independent risk factor for AF. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  1. Cumulative trauma disorders: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Zaheen A; Alghadir, Ahmad H

    2017-08-03

    Cumulative trauma disorder (CTD) is a term for various injuries of the musculoskeletal and nervous systems that are caused by repetitive tasks, forceful exertions, vibrations, mechanical compression or sustained postures. Although there are many studies citing incidence of CTDs, there are fewer articles about its etiology, pathology and management. The aim of our study was to discuss the etiology, pathogenesis, prevention and management of CTDs. A literature search was performed using various electronic databases. The search was limited to articles in English language pertaining to randomized clinical trials, cohort studies and systematic reviews of CTDs. A total of 180 papers were identified to be relevant published since 1959. Out of these, 125 papers reported about its incidence and 50 about its conservative treatment. Workplace environment, same task repeatability and little variability, decreased time for rest, increase in expectations are major factors for developing CTDs. Prevention of its etiology and early diagnosis can be the best to decrease its incidence and severity. For effective management of CTDs, its treatment should be divided into Primordial, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary prevention.

  2. Executive function, but not memory, associates with incident coronary heart disease and stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rostamian, Somayeh; van Buchem, Mark A; Westendorp, Rudi G J

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of performance in cognitive domains executive function and memory with incident coronary heart disease and stroke in older participants without dementia. METHODS: We included 3,926 participants (mean age 75 years, 44% male) at risk for cardiovascular diseases...... from the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) with Mini-Mental State Examination score ≥24 points. Scores on the Stroop Color-Word Test (selective attention) and the Letter Digit Substitution Test (processing speed) were converted to Z scores and averaged into a composite...... executive function score. Likewise, scores of the Picture Learning Test (immediate and delayed memory) were transformed into a composite memory score. Associations of executive function and memory were longitudinally assessed with risk of coronary heart disease and stroke using multivariable Cox regression...

  3. The Incidence and gastrointestinal infectious risk of functional gastrointestinal disorders in a healthy US adult population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Chad K; Gormley, Robert; Tribble, David R; Cash, Brooks D; Riddle, Mark S

    2011-01-01

    Functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGDs) are recognized sequelae of infectious gastroenteritis (IGE). Within the active duty military population, a group with known high IGE rates, the population-based incidence, risk factors, and attributable burden of care referable to FGD after IGE are poorly defined. Using electronic medical encounter data (1999-2007) on active duty US military, a matched, case-control study describing the epidemiology and risk determinants of FGD (irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), functional constipation (FC), functional diarrhea (FD), dyspepsia (D)) was conducted. Incidence rates and duration of FGD-related medical care were estimated, and conditional logistic regression was utilized to evaluate FGD risk after IGE. A total of 31,866 cases of FGD identified were distributed as follows: FC 55% (n=17,538), D 21.2% (n=6,750), FD 2.1% (n=674), IBS 28.5% (n=9,091). Previous IGE episodes were distributed as follows: specific bacterial pathogen (n=65, 1.2%), bacterial, with no pathogen specified (n=2155, 38.9%), protozoal (n=38, 0.7%), viral (n=3431, 61.9%). A significant association between IGE and all FGD (odds ratio (OR) 2.64; Phigh risk for IGE. When considering effective countermeasures and mitigation strategies, attention directed toward prevention as well as the acute and chronic sequelae of these infections is needed.

  4. Urinary tract infection in renal transplant recipients: incidence, risk factors, and impact on graft function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camargo, L F; Esteves, A B A; Ulisses, L R S; Rivelli, G G; Mazzali, M

    2014-01-01

    Urinary tract infection (UTI) is the most common infection posttransplant. However, the risk factors for and the impact of UTIs remain controversial. The aim of this study was to identify the incidence of posttransplant UTIs in a series of renal transplant recipients from deceased donors. Secondary objectives were to identify: (1) the most frequent infectious agents; (2) risk factors related to donor; (3) risk factors related to recipients; and (4) impact of UTI on graft function. This was a retrospective analysis of medical records from renal transplant patients from January to December 2010. Local ethics committee approved the protocol. The incidence of UTI in this series was 34.2%. Risk factors for UTI were older age, (independent of gender), biopsy-proven acute rejection episodes, and kidneys from deceased donors (United Network for Organ Sharing criteria). For female patients, the number of pretransplant pregnancies was an additional risk factor. Recurrent UTI was observed in 44% of patients from the UTI group. The most common infectious agents were Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, for both isolated and recurrent UTI. No difference in renal graft function or immunosuppressive therapy was observed between groups after the 1-year follow-up. In this series, older age, previous pregnancy, kidneys from expanded criteria donors, and biopsy-proven acute rejection episodes were risk factors for posttransplant UTI. Recurrence of UTI was observed in 44%, with no negative impact on graft function or survival. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Understanding the Relation of Low Income to HPA-Axis Functioning in Preschool Children: Cumulative Family Risk and Parenting as Pathways to Disruptions in Cortisol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalewski, Maureen; Lengua, Liliana J.; Kiff, Cara J.; Fisher, Philip A.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the relation of low income and poverty to cortisol levels, and tested potential pathways from low income to disruptions in cortisol through cumulative family risk and parenting. The sample of 306 mothers and their preschool children included 29 % families at or near poverty, 27 % families below the median income, and the…

  6. Accident Analysis and Barrier Function (AEB) Method. Manual for Incident Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svenson, Ola [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Psychology

    2000-02-01

    The Accident Analysis and Barrier Function (AEB) Method models an accident or incident as a series of interactions between human and technical systems. In the sequence of human and technical errors leading to an accident there is, in principle, a possibility to arrest the development between each two successive errors. This can be done by a barrier function which, for example, can stop an operator from making an error. A barrier function can be performed by one or several barrier function systems. To illustrate, a mechanical system, a computer system or another operator can all perform a given barrier function to stop an operator from making an error. The barrier function analysis consists of analysis of suggested improvements, the effectiveness of the improvements, the costs of implementation, probability of implementation, the cost of maintaining the barrier function, the probability that maintenance will be kept up to standards and the generalizability of the suggested improvement. The AEB method is similar to the US method called HPES, but differs from that method in different ways. To exemplify, the AEB method has more emphasis on technical errors than HPES. In contrast to HPES that describes a series of events, the AEB method models only errors. This gives a more focused analysis making it well suited for checking other HPES-type accident analyses. However, the AEB method is a generic and stand-alone method that has been applied in other fields than nuclear power, such as, in traffic accident analyses.

  7. Accident Analysis and Barrier Function (AEB) Method. Manual for Incident Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svenson, Ola

    2000-02-01

    The Accident Analysis and Barrier Function (AEB) Method models an accident or incident as a series of interactions between human and technical systems. In the sequence of human and technical errors leading to an accident there is, in principle, a possibility to arrest the development between each two successive errors. This can be done by a barrier function which, for example, can stop an operator from making an error. A barrier function can be performed by one or several barrier function systems. To illustrate, a mechanical system, a computer system or another operator can all perform a given barrier function to stop an operator from making an error. The barrier function analysis consists of analysis of suggested improvements, the effectiveness of the improvements, the costs of implementation, probability of implementation, the cost of maintaining the barrier function, the probability that maintenance will be kept up to standards and the generalizability of the suggested improvement. The AEB method is similar to the US method called HPES, but differs from that method in different ways. To exemplify, the AEB method has more emphasis on technical errors than HPES. In contrast to HPES that describes a series of events, the AEB method models only errors. This gives a more focused analysis making it well suited for checking other HPES-type accident analyses. However, the AEB method is a generic and stand-alone method that has been applied in other fields than nuclear power, such as, in traffic accident analyses

  8. Incidência cumulativa anual de doenças musculoesqueléticas incapacitantes relacionadas ao trabalho em uma área urbana do Brasil Cumulative annual incidence of disabling work-related musculoskeletal disorders in an urban area of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norma Suely Souto Souza

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Estimou-se a incidência cumulativa anual (ICA das doenças musculoesqueléticas incapacitantes que acometem a região cervical e/ou membros superiores (DMEMS relacionadas ao trabalho, entre trabalhadores do Regime Geral da Previdência Social (RGPS de Salvador, Bahia, Brasil. Trabalhadores que receberam benefícios por incapacidade temporária por DMEMS relacionadas ao trabalho foram considerados casos, em 2008. Os dados provêm dos sistemas administrativos do Instituto Nacional do Seguro Social (INSS e do Ministério do Trabalho e Emprego (MTE. A ICA foi de 15 por dez mil trabalhadores. Mulheres, os de menor renda e aqueles que trabalhavam no ramo de atividades financeiras e indústria de transformação tinham maior ICA-DMEMS do que os seus referentes. Mulheres com o menor rendimento (um salário mínimo: R$ 415,00 tiveram a maior ICA-DMEMS, de 123 casos por dez mil. Isso sugere desigualdade na ocorrência dessas enfermidades, indicando a necessidade de priorizar não só ações de prevenção, com foco na ergonomia e organização do trabalho, como também o diagnóstico precoce, tratamento e reabilitação profissional.This study focused on the annual cumulative incidence (ACI of disabling work-related musculoskeletal disorders affecting the neck and/or upper limbs (ULMSD among workers covered by the National Social Insurance System in the city of Salvador, Bahia State, Brazil. Cases were workers who received disability compensation benefits when unable to work due to ULMSD, during the year 2008. The data were obtained from the administrative systems of the National Social Insurance Institute and Ministry of Labor and Employment. ACI was 15 per 10,000 workers. Increased ACI of ULMSD was associated with female gender, lower income, and work in financial activities or manufacturing. Women earning the minimum wage (US$ 64.00 per month or less had the highest ACI of ULMSD (123 per 10,000, suggesting inequalities in the occurrence of these

  9. About the cumulants of periodic signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrau, Axel; El Badaoui, Mohammed

    2018-01-01

    This note studies cumulants of time series. These functions originating from the probability theory being commonly used as features of deterministic signals, their classical properties are examined in this modified framework. We show additivity of cumulants, ensured in the case of independent random variables, requires here a different hypothesis. Practical applications are proposed, in particular an analysis of the failure of the JADE algorithm to separate some specific periodic signals.

  10. Study on the incidence and etiology of subclinical thyroid function disorders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gu Jingxin; Xie Xiuhai; Huang Chenyang; Fu Junyan; Lu Weiguo; Chen Kejing

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To study the incidence and etiology of subclinical thyroid function disorders in 12592 subjects tested. Methods: The etiology of 874 patients with abnormal serum TSH (with IRMA) found in the tested 12592 patients, whose serum T 3 , T 4 , FT 3 , FT 4 , TSH, TGA and TMA were also detected with RIA was analyzed. Results: 874 of 12592 patients had abnormal TSH levels (6.94%). Among them, TSH was elevated in 397 patients (3.15%) and decreased in 477 patients (3.79%). Most of them were associated with obvious related thyroid or other thronic diseases such as hyperthyroidism after therapy, thyroxine replacement treatment of hypothyroidism and other thyroid diseases (thyroiditis, diffuse nontoxic goiter). In the remaining apparently disease-free 143 subjects, there were with subclinical hypothyroidism and 34 (3.89% of 874) with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Also among the 874 patients, 30.78% (n=269) patients had elevated TGA and TMA[16.82% (n=147) had elevated TSH and TGA, TMA simultaneously, 13.96% (n=122) had decreased TSH and elevated TGA and TMA simultaneously]. In the 874 patients, 256 (29.29%) were older than 60. Conclusion: Elderly people has higher incidence of subclinical thyroid function disorders. We should pay more attention to the detection of this condition, especially in elderly patients. (authors)

  11. Incidence of loss of ability to walk 400 meters in a functionally limited older population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Milan; Cohen-Mansfield, Jiska; Ferrucci, Luigi; Leveille, Suzanne; Volpato, Stefano; de Rekeneire, Nathalie; Guralnik, Jack M

    2004-12-01

    To assess the incidence of and factors related to nondisabled but functionally limited older adults aged 75 to 85 years losing the ability to walk 400 m. Observational study with average follow-up of 21 months. Community. At baseline, 101 persons with objective signs of functional limitations and intact cognitive function agreed to participate in the study. Of these, 81 were able to walk 400 m at baseline, and 62 participated in the follow-up examination. Mobility disability was defined as an inability to complete a 400-m walk test. At baseline, eligible participants (n=81) had the ability to walk 400 m, scored between 4 and 9 on the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB; range 0-12), and scored 18 or more on the Mini-Mental State Examination. Demographics, difficulty in daily activities, disease status, behavioral risk factors, and muscle strength were assessed at baseline and follow-up. Of 62 persons at follow-up, 21 (33.9%) developed incident mobility disability. The strongest predictors of loss of mobility were the time to complete the 400-m walk at baseline (odds ratio (OR)=1.6 per 1-minute difference, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.04-2.45), and decline in SPPB score over the follow-up (OR=1.4 per 1-point difference, 95% CI=1.01-1.92). Older persons with functional limitations have a high rate of loss of ability to walk 400 m. The 400-m walk test is a highly relevant, discrete outcome that is an ideal target for testing preventive interventions in vulnerable older populations.

  12. Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model with Saturated Incidence and Saturated Treatment Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinhong Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of SEIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and saturated treatment function are explored in this paper. The basic reproduction number that determines disease extinction and disease survival is given. The existing threshold conditions of all kinds of the equilibrium points are obtained. Sufficient conditions are established for the existence of backward bifurcation. The local asymptotical stability of equilibrium is verified by analyzing the eigenvalues and using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion. We also discuss the global asymptotical stability of the endemic equilibrium by autonomous convergence theorem. The study indicates that we should improve the efficiency and enlarge the capacity of the treatment to control the spread of disease. Numerical simulations are presented to support and complement the theoretical findings.

  13. Cumulation of light nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldin, A.M.; Bondarev, V.K.; Golovanov, L.B.

    1977-01-01

    Limit fragmentation of light nuclei (deuterium, helium) bombarded with 8,6 GeV/c protons was investigated. Fragments (pions, protons and deuterons) were detected within the emission angle 50-150 deg with regard to primary protons and within the pulse range 150-180 MeV/c. By the kinematics of collision of a primary proton with a target at rest the fragments observed correspond to a target mass upto 3 GeV. Thus, the data obtained correspond to teh cumulation upto the third order

  14. Effects of a multifactorial fall prevention program on fall incidence and physical function in community-dwelling older adults with risk of falls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hsuei-Chen; Chang, Ku-Chou; Tsauo, Jau-Yih; Hung, Jen-Wen; Huang, Yu-Ching; Lin, Sang-I

    2013-04-01

    To evaluate effects of a multifactorial fall prevention program on fall incidence and physical function in community-dwelling older adults. Multicenter randomized controlled trial. Three medical centers and adjacent community health centers. Community-dwelling older adults (N=616) who have fallen in the previous year or are at risk of falling. After baseline assessment, eligible subjects were randomly allocated into the intervention group (IG) or the control group (CG), stratified by the Physiological Profile Assessment (PPA) fall risk level. The IG received a 3-month multifactorial intervention program including 8 weeks of exercise training, health education, home hazards evaluation/modification, along with medication review and ophthalmology/other specialty consults. The CG received health education brochures, referrals, and recommendations without direct exercise intervention. Primary outcome was fall incidence within 1 year. Secondary outcomes were PPA battery (overall fall risk index, vision, muscular strength, reaction time, balance, and proprioception), Timed Up & Go (TUG) test, Taiwan version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire, EuroQol-5D, Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), and the Falls Efficacy Scale-International at 3 months after randomization. Participants were 76±7 years old and included low risk 25.6%, moderate risk 25.6%, and marked risk 48.7%. The cumulative 1-year fall incidence was 25.2% in the IG and 27.6% in the CG (hazard ratio=.90; 95% confidence interval, .66-1.23). The IG improved more favorably than the CG on overall PPA fall risk index, reaction time, postural sway with eyes open, TUG test, and GDS, especially for those with marked fall risk. The multifactorial fall prevention program with exercise intervention improved functional performance at 3 months for community-dwelling older adults with risk of falls, but did not reduce falls at 1-year follow-up. Fall incidence might have been decreased simultaneously in both

  15. Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

  16. Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

  17. The incidence and functional consequences of RT-associated cardiac perfusion defects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, Lawrence B.; Yu Xiaoli; Prosnitz, Robert G.; Zhou Sumin; Hardenbergh, Patricia H.; Blazing, Michael; Hollis, Donna; Lind, Pehr; Tisch, Andrea; Wong, Terence Z.; Borges-Neto, Salvador

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: Radiation therapy (RT) for left-sided breast cancer has been associated with cardiac dysfunction. We herein assess the temporal nature and volume dependence of RT-induced left ventricular perfusion defects and whether these perfusion defects are related to changes in cardiac wall motion or alterations in ejection fraction. Methods: From 1998 to 2001, 114 patients were enrolled onto an IRB-approved prospective clinical study to assess changes in regional and global cardiac function after RT for left-sided breast cancer. Patients were imaged 30 to 60 minutes after injection of technetium 99m sestamibi or tetrofosmin. Post-RT perfusion scans were compared with the pre-RT studies to assess for RT-induced perfusion defects as well as functional changes in wall motion and ejection fraction. Two-tailed Fisher's exact test and the Cochran-Armitage test for linear trends were used for statistical analysis. Results: The incidence of new perfusion defects 6, 12, 18, and 24 months after RT was 27%, 29%, 38%, and 42%, respectively. New defects occurred in approximately 10% to 20% and 50% to 60% of patients with less than 5%, and greater than 5%, of their left ventricle included within the RT fields, respectively (p = 0.33 to 0.00008). The rates of wall motion abnormalities in patients with and without perfusion defects were 12% to 40% versus 0% to 9%, respectively; p values were 0.007 to 0.16, depending on the post-RT interval. Conclusions: Radiation therapy causes volume-dependent perfusion defects in approximately 40% of patients within 2 years of RT. These perfusion defects are associated with corresponding wall-motion abnormalities. Additional study is necessary to better define the long-term functional consequences of RT-induced perfusion defects

  18. Cumulative watershed effects: a research perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie M. Reid; Robert R. Ziemer

    1989-01-01

    A cumulative watershed effect (CWE) is any response to multiple land-use activities that is caused by, or results in, altered watershed function. The CWE issue is politically defined, as is the significance of particular impacts. But the processes generating CWEs are the traditional focus of geomorphology and ecology, and have thus been studied for decades. The CWE...

  19. EXAFS cumulants of CdSe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diop, D.

    1997-04-01

    EXAFS functions had been extracted from measurements on the K edge of Se at different temperatures between 20 and 300 K. The analysis of the EXAFS of the filtered first two shells has been done in the wavevector range laying between 2 and 15.5 A -1 in terms of the cumulants of the effective distribution of distances. The cumulants C 3 and C 4 obtained from the phase difference and the amplitude ratio methods have shown the anharmonicity in the vibrations of atoms around their equilibrium position. (author). 13 refs, 3 figs

  20. Occupation and three-year incidence of respiratory symptoms and lung function decline: the ARIC Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirabelli Maria C

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Specific occupations are associated with adverse respiratory health. Inhalation exposures encountered in these jobs may place workers at risk of new-onset respiratory disease. Methods We analyzed data from 8,967 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC study, a longitudinal cohort study. Participants included in this analysis were free of chronic cough and phlegm, wheezing, asthma, chronic bronchitis, emphysema, and other chronic lung conditions at the baseline examination, when they were aged 45-64 years. Using data collected in the baseline and first follow-up examination, we evaluated associations between occupation and the three-year incidence of cough, phlegm, wheezing, and airway obstruction and changes in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1 and forced vital capacity (FVC measured by spirometry. All associations were adjusted for age, cigarettes per day, race, smoking status, and study center. Results During the approximately three-year follow-up, the percentage of participants developing chronic cough was 3%; chronic phlegm, 3%; wheezing, 3%; and airway obstruction, defined as FEV1 1/FVC 1 and FVC were 56 mL and 66 mL, respectively, among men and 40 mL and 52 mL, respectively, among women. Relative to a referent category of managerial and administrative support occupations, elevated risks of new-onset chronic cough and chronic phlegm were observed for mechanics and repairers (chronic cough: RR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.02, 3.21; chronic phlegm: RR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.23, 3.57 and cleaning and building service workers (chronic cough: RR: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.01, 3.37; chronic phlegm: RR: 2.28, 95% CI: 1.27, 4.08. Despite the elevated risk of new-onset symptoms, employment in cleaning and building services was associated with attenuated lung function decline, particularly among men, who averaged annual declines in FEV1 and FVC of 14 mL and 23 mL, respectively, less than the declines observed in the

  1. Cumulative radiation effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, J.; Gray, W.M.; Watson, E.R.

    1977-01-01

    In five previous papers, the concept of Cumulative Radiation Effect (CRE) has been presented as a scale of accumulative sub-tolerance radiation damage, with a unique value of the CRE describing a specific level of radiation effect. Simple nomographic and tabular methods for the solution of practical problems in radiotherapy are now described. An essential feature of solving a CRE problem is firstly to present it in a concise and readily appreciated form, and, to do this, nomenclature has been introduced to describe schedules and regimes as compactly as possible. Simple algebraic equations have been derived to describe the CRE achieved by multi-schedule regimes. In these equations, the equivalence conditions existing at the junctions between schedules are not explicit and the equations are based on the CREs of the constituent schedules assessed individually without reference to their context in the regime as a whole. This independent evaluation of CREs for each schedule has resulted in a considerable simplification in the calculation of complex problems. The calculations are further simplified by the use of suitable tables and nomograms, so that the mathematics involved is reduced to simple arithmetical operations which require at the most the use of a slide rule but can be done by hand. The order of procedure in the presentation and calculation of CRE problems can be summarised in an evaluation procedure sheet. The resulting simple methods for solving practical problems of any complexity on the CRE-system are demonstrated by a number of examples. (author)

  2. Fasting triglycerides as a predictor of incident diabetes, insulin resistance and β-cell function in a Canadian First Nation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riediger, Natalie D; Clark, Kirsten; Lukianchuk, Virginia; Roulette, Joanne; Bruce, Sharon

    2017-01-01

    Diabetes prevalence is substantially higher among Canadian First Nations populations than the non-First Nation population. Fasting serum triglycerides have been found to be an important predictor of incident diabetes among non-indigenous populations. However, there is a great need to understand diabetes progression within specific ethnic groups, particularly First Nations populations. The purpose of this study was to test for an association between fasting serum triglycerides and incident diabetes, changes in insulin resistance and changes in β-cell function in a Manitoba First Nation cohort. Study data were from two diabetes screening studies in Sandy Bay First Nation in Manitoba, Canada, collected in 2002/2003 and 2011/2012. The cohort was composed of respondents to both screening studies (n=171). Fasting blood samples and anthropometric, health and demographic data were collected. A generalised linear model with Poisson distribution was used to test for an association between fasting triglycerides and incident diabetes. There were 35 incident cases of diabetes among 128 persons without diabetes at baseline. Participants who developed incident type 2 diabetes were significantly older and had significantly higher body mass index (BMI; p=0.012), total cholesterol (p=0.007), fasting triglycerides (ptriglyceride level was found to be a statistically significant positive predictor of incident diabetes independent of age, sex and waist circumference at baseline. Participants with triglycerides in the highest tertile (≥2.11 mmol/l) had a 4.0-times higher risk of developing incident diabetes compared to those in the lowest tertile (p=0.03). Notably, neither waist circumference nor BMI were significant predictors of incident diabetes independent of age, sex and triglycerides. Fasting triglycerides may be useful as a clinical predictor of insulin resistance and diabetes development among First Nations populations. Unlike other ethnic groups, BMI and waist circumference

  3. Cumulative radiation effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, J.; Cain, O.; Gray, W.M.

    1977-01-01

    Cumulative Radiation Effect (CRE) represents a scale of accumulative sub-tolerance radiation damage, with a unique value of the CRE describing a specific level of radiation effect. Computer calculations have been used to simplify the evaluation of problems associated with the applications of the CRE-system in radiotherapy. In a general appraisal of the applications of computers to the CRE-system, the various problems encountered in clinical radiotherapy have been categorised into those involving the evaluation of a CRE at a point in tissue and those involving the calculation of CRE distributions. As a general guide, the computer techniques adopted at the Glasgow Institute of Radiotherapeutics for the solution of CRE problems are presented, and consist basically of a package of three interactive programs for point CRE calculations and a Fortran program which calculates CRE distributions for iso-effect treatment planning. Many examples are given to demonstrate the applications of these programs, and special emphasis has been laid on the problem of treating a point in tissue with different doses per fraction on alternate treatment days. The wide range of possible clinical applications of the CRE-system has been outlined and described under the categories of routine clinical applications, retrospective and prospective surveys of patient treatment, and experimental and theoretical research. Some of these applications such as the results of surveys and studies of time optimisation of treatment schedules could have far-reaching consequences and lead to significant improvements in treatment and cure rates with the minimum damage to normal tissue. (author)

  4. Functional Stroke Mimics: Incidence and Characteristics at a Primary Stroke Center in the Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkins, Stacy Schantz; Bourke, Paula; Salam, Abdul; Akhtar, Naveed; D'Souza, Atlantic; Kamran, Saadat; Bhutta, Zain; Shuaib, Ashfaq

    2018-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective Approximately 30% of individuals who initially present with stroke are found to be stroke mimics (SM), with functional/psychological SM (FSM) accounting for up to 6.4% of all stroke presentations. Middle Eastern countries may have higher rates of somatization of emotional distress. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence and characteristics of FSM at a large general hospital in the Middle East. Methods All patients presenting with an initial diagnosis of stroke from June 2015 to September 2016 were eligible for this study. Clinical and sociodemographic data were obtained from the hospital's stroke database. All SM and strokes were diagnosed by Joint Commission International–certified stroke program neurologists. SM was defined as any discharge diagnosis (other than acute stroke) for symptoms that prompted initial admission for suspected stroke. FSM were compared with medical stroke mimics (MSM) and strokes (ischemic, hemorrhagic, and transient ischemic attacks). Results A total of 1961 patients were identified; 161 FSM (8.2%), 390 MSM (19.9%), and 1410 strokes (71.9%) (985 ischemic strokes, 196 transient ischemic attacks, 229 intracerebral hemorrhages). Admission with FSM was related to patients' nationality, with the highest frequency in Arabic (15.6%) and African (16.8%) patients. FSM patients were younger, more often female, and had fewer cardiovascular risk factors except for smoking compared with the strokes. FSM patients presented with more left-sided weakness and had more magnetic resonance imagings than the stroke and MSM groups. A total of 9.9% of FSM patients received thrombolysis versus only 0.5% of the MSM and 16.4% of ischemic strokes. Conclusions FSM frequencies varied by nationality, with Arab and African nationals being twice as prevalent. Stress, vulnerable status as expats, sociopolitical instability, and exposure to trauma are proposed as potential factors contributing to FSM. PMID:29394187

  5. Report: Improvements Needed in CSB’s Identity and Access Management and Incident Response Security Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Report #18-P-0030, October 30, 2017. Weaknesses in the Identity and Access Management and Incident Response metric domains leave the CSB vulnerable to attacks occurring and not being detected in a timely manner.

  6. Secant cumulants and toric geometry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michalek, M.; Oeding, L.; Zwiernik, P.W.

    2012-01-01

    We study the secant line variety of the Segre product of projective spaces using special cumulant coordinates adapted for secant varieties. We show that the secant variety is covered by open normal toric varieties. We prove that in cumulant coordinates its ideal is generated by binomial quadrics. We

  7. Thyroid function, reduced kidney function and incident chronic kidney disease in a community-based population: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultheiss, Ulla T; Daya, Natalie; Grams, Morgan E; Seufert, Jochen; Steffes, Michael; Coresh, Josef; Selvin, Elizabeth; Köttgen, Anna

    2017-11-01

    Reduced kidney function is a common public health problem that increases risk for a wide variety of adverse outcomes, making the identification of potentially modifiable factors associated with the development of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) important. Alterations in the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis have been linked to reduced kidney function, but the association of thyroid function with the development of incident CKD is largely uncharacterized. Concentrations of thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (FT4), triiodothyronine (T3) and thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb) were quantified in 12 785 black and white participants of the ongoing community-based prospective Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. Thyroid markers and clinical categories of thyroid dysfunction (euthyroidism, combined subclinical and overt hypothyroidism, combined subclinical and overt hyperthyroidism) were also evaluated for their association with reduced kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate kidney function at study baseline. The clinical entities hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism were also associated with higher odds of baseline reduced kidney function, but this was not significant. However, none of the markers of thyroid function nor different clinical categories of thyroid dysfunction (hypothyroidism, hyperthyroidism or TPOAb positivity) were associated with incident CKD in adjusted analyses. Elevated TSH, FT4 and reduced T3 concentrations were associated with reduced kidney function cross-sectionally. The lack of association with the development of incident CKD suggests that altered thyroid function in the general population is not causally related to CKD development, but screening for thyroidal status may be especially relevant in persons with reduced kidney function. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  8. Feasibility of Incremental 2-Times Weekly Hemodialysis in Incident Patients With Residual Kidney Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew I. Chin

    2017-09-01

    Discussion: More than 50% of incident HD patients with RKF have adequate kidney urea clearance to be considered for 2-times weekly HD. When additionally ultrafiltration volume and blood pressure stability are taken into account, more than one-fourth of the total cohort could optimally start HD in an incremental fashion.

  9. How does the brain deal with cumulative stress? A review with focus on developmental stress, HPA axis function and hippocampal structure in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frodl, Thomas; O'Keane, Veronica

    2013-04-01

    There is evidence that excessive stress exposure of the brain, mediated through the neurotoxic effects of cortisol and possibly neuroinflammation, causes damage to brain structure and function: the glucocorticoid cascade hypothesis. Functional changes of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis as well as alterations in brain structures like the hippocampus have been consistently reported in major depression. However, there has not been a lot of emphasis on bringing findings from studies on early childhood stress, HPA axis functioning and hippocampal imaging together. This is the subject for this systematic review of the literature on how developmental stress, specifically childhood maltreatment, may impact on HPA axis function and hippocampal structure. We will also review the literature on the relationship between HPA axis function and hippocampal volume in healthy, depressed and other disease states. There is evidence that prenatal stress and childhood maltreatment is associated with an abnormally developing HPA system, as well as hippocampal volume reduction. Smaller hippocampal volumes are associated with increased cortisol secretion during the day. We conclude that a model integrating childhood maltreatment, cortisol abnormalities and hippocampal volume may need to take other factors into account, such as temperament, genetics or the presence of depression; to provide a cohesive explanation of all the findings. Finally, we have to conclude that the cascade hypothesis, mainly based on preclinical studies, has not been translated enough into humans. While there is evidence that early life maltreatment results in structural hippocampal changes and these are in turn more prominent in subjects with higher continuous cortisol secretion it is less clear which role early life maltreatment plays in HPA axis alteration. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. The challenge of cumulative impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masden, Elisabeth

    2011-07-01

    Full text: As governments pledge to combat climate change, wind turbines are becoming a common feature of terrestrial and marine environments. Although wind power is a renewable energy source and a means of reducing carbon emissions, there is a need to ensure that the wind farms themselves do not damage the environment. There is particular concern over the impacts of wind farms on bird populations, and with increasing numbers of wind farm proposals, the concern focuses on cumulative impacts. Individually, a wind farm, or indeed any activity/action, may have minor effects on the environment, but collectively these may be significant, potentially greater than the sum of the individual parts acting alone. Cumulative impact assessment is a legislative requirement of environmental impact assessment but such assessments are rarely adequate restricting the acquisition of basic knowledge about the cumulative impacts of wind farms on bird populations. Reasons for this are numerous but a recurring theme is the lack of clear definitions and guidance on how to perform cumulative assessments. Here we present a conceptual framework and include illustrative examples to demonstrate how the framework can be used to improve the planning and execution of cumulative impact assessments. The core concept is that explicit definitions of impacts, actions and scales of assessment are required to reduce uncertainty in the process of assessment and improve communication between stake holders. Only when it is clear what has been included within a cumulative assessment, is it possible to make comparisons between developments. Our framework requires improved legislative guidance on the actions to include in assessments, and advice on the appropriate baselines against which to assess impacts. Cumulative impacts are currently considered on restricted scales (spatial and temporal) relating to individual development assessments. We propose that benefits would be gained from elevating cumulative

  11. Fear of falling predicts incidence of functional disability two years later: A perspective from an international cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auais, Mohammad; French, Simon; Alvarado, Beatriz; Pirkle, Catherine; Belanger, Emmanuelle; Guralnik, Jack

    2017-12-06

    To study the extent to which fear of falling (FOF) is associated with the onset of functional disability over a 2-year period in older adults using self-reported and performance-based measures. In 2012, 1,601 participants (aged 65-74) were recruited from four sites: Kingston and Saint-Hyacinthe, Canada; Manizales, Colombia; and Natal, Brazil. They were re-assessed in 2014. We quantified FOF using the Fall Efficacy Scale-International (FES-I; range: 16-64). Functional disability measures were 1) self-reported incident mobility disability, defined as difficulty climbing a flight of stairs or walking 400 meters and 2) incident poor physical performance, defined as a score <9 on the Short Physical Performance Battery. In the Poisson regression analysis, we included only those participants without functional disability at baseline to calculate incident risk ratios in 2014. 1,355 participants completed the 2014 assessment, of which 917 and 1,078 had no mobility disability and poor physical performance at baseline, respectively. In 2014, 131 (14.3%), and 166 (15.4%) participants reported incident mobility disability and poor physical performance, respectively. After adjusting for age, sex, socioeconomic, and health covariates, a one-point increase in FES-I at baseline was associated with a 4% increase in the risk of reporting incident mobility disability (95% CI: 1.02-1.05) and a 3% increase in the risk of developing poor physical performance at follow up in the overall sample (95%CI: 1.01-1.05). FOF is associated with a higher risk of incident mobility disability and poor physical performance in a cohort of older adults. It is increasingly important to study FOF's effect on functional disability and to take necessary measures to prevent the transition to end-stage disability. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Functional Time Series Models to Estimate Future Age-Specific Breast Cancer Incidence Rates for Women in Karachi, Pakistan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Farah Yasmeen[1; Sidra Zaheer[2

    2014-01-01

    Background: Breast cancer is the most common female cancer in Pakistan. The incidence of breast cancer in Pakistan is about 2.5 times higher than that in the neighboring countries India and Iran. In Karachi, the most populated city of Pakistan, the age-standardized rate of breast cancer was 69.1 per 100,000 women during 1998-2002, which is the highest recorded rate in Asia. The carcinoma of breast in Pakistan is an enormous public health concern. In this study, we examined the recent trends of breast cancer incidence rates among the women in Karachi. Methods: We obtained the secondary data of breast cancer incidence from various hospitals. They included Jinnah Hospital, KIRAN (Karachi Institute of Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine), and Civil hospital, where the data were available for the years 2004-2011. A total of 5331 new cases of female breast cancer were registered during this period. We analyzed the data in 5-year age groups 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75+. Nonparametric smoothing were used to obtained age-specific incidence curves, and then the curves are decomposed using principal components analysis to fit FTS (functional time series) model. We then used exponential smoothing statspace models to estimate the forecasts of incidence curve and construct prediction intervals. Results: The breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi increased with age for all available years. The rates increased monotonically and are relatively sharp with the age from 15 years to 50 years and then they show variability after the age of 50 years. 10-year forecasts for the female breast cancer incidence rates in Karachi show that the future rates are expected to remain stable for the age-groups 15-50 years, but they will increase for the females of 50-years and over. Hence in future, the newly diagnosed breast cancer cases in the older women in Karachi are expected to increase. Conclusion: Prediction of age

  13. County‐level cumulative environmental quality associated with cancer incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: Cancer risk is affected by a combination of behavioral, genetic, and environmental factors. Individual environmental exposures have been associated with cancer development; however, a variety of environmental exposures may occur simultaneously. The Environmental Quali...

  14. Kidney Function, Proteinuria, and Cancer Incidence: The Korean Heart Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mok, Yejin; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Ballew, Shoshana H; Sang, Yingying; Jung, Keum Ji; Lee, Sunmi; Jee, Sun Ha; Coresh, Josef

    2017-10-01

    Reported associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with cancer risk are inconsistent, and data for the proteinuria-cancer relationship are sparse. We sought to quantify the associations of cancer incidence with eGFR and with proteinuria in a large population-based cohort. A prospective cohort study. 242,583 adults (30-74 years old) without a diagnosis of cancer at baseline in the Korean Heart Study, based on health checkups in 1996 to 2004 with follow-up until 2012. Creatinine-based eGFR (≥90, 60-89, 45-59, and cancer incidence based on ICD-10 codes. 15,165 cases of cancer were detected. The relationship between eGFR and incidence of any cancer was J shaped, with the lowest risk at 45 to 59mL/min/1.73m 2 . There was 44% higher risk for any cancer among those with eGFRscancer risk, showing a dose-response relationship (HRs of 1.24 [95% CI, 1.13-1.35], 1.38 [95% CI, 1.17-1.63], and 1.66 [95% CI, 1.30-2.12] for 1+, 2+, and ≥3+ vs undetectable/trace). Examining site-specific cancer, eGFRkidney and ureteral cancer, multiple myeloma, and leukemia, whereas proteinuria ≥ 1+ (vs undetectable/trace) was related to a broader set of cancers (ie, stomach, rectal, liver, lung, ovarian, kidney, bladder, and multiple myeloma). After excluding study participants with follow-up less than 3 years, the associations remained consistent for kidney cancer and myeloma with eGFR and for rectal, liver, lung, and ovarian cancer with proteinuria. Relatively small number of participants with severely reduced eGFR or 70 years or older. Kidney measures, particularly proteinuria, were associated with increased incidence of cancer. Future studies are needed to better understand the pathophysiologic mechanisms underlying these associations. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. After-discharges and seizures during pediatric extra-operative electrical cortical stimulation functional brain mapping: Incidence, thresholds, and determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aungaroon, Gewalin; Zea Vera, Alonso; Horn, Paul S; Byars, Anna W; Greiner, Hansel M; Tenney, Jeffrey R; Arthur, Todd M; Crone, Nathan E; Holland, Katherine D; Mangano, Francesco T; Arya, Ravindra

    2017-10-01

    This study examined the incidence, thresholds, and determinants of electrical cortical stimulation (ECS)-induced after-discharges (ADs) and seizures. Electrocorticograph recordings were reviewed to determine incidence of ECS-induced ADs and seizures. Multivariable analyses for predictors of AD/seizure occurrence and their thresholds were performed. In 122 patients, the incidence of ADs and seizures was 77% (94/122) and 35% (43/122) respectively. Males (odds ratio [OR] 2.92, 95% CI 1.21-7.38, p=0.02) and MRI-negative patients (OR 3.69, 95% CI 1.24-13.7, p=0.03) were found to have higher odds of ECS-induced ADs. A significant trend for decreasing AD thresholds with age was seen (regression co-efficient -0.151, 95% CI -0.267 to -0.035, p=0.011). ECS-induced seizures were more likely in patients with lateralized functional imaging (OR 6.62, 95% CI 1.36-55.56, p=0.036, for positron emission tomography) and presence of ADs (OR 3.50, 95% CI 1.12-13.36, p=0.043). ECS is associated with a high incidence of ADs and seizures. With age, current thresholds decrease and the probability for AD/seizure occurrence increases. ADs and seizures during ECS brain mapping are potentially hazardous and affect its functional validity. Thus, safer method(s) for brain mapping with improved neurophysiologic validity are desirable. Copyright © 2017 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Home blood pressure predicts stroke incidence among older adults with impaired physical function: the Ohasama study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Keiko; Asayama, Kei; Satoh, Michihiro; Hosaka, Miki; Matsuda, Ayako; Inoue, Ryusuke; Tsubota-Utsugi, Megumi; Murakami, Takahisa; Nomura, Kyoko; Kikuya, Masahiro; Metoki, Hirohito; Imai, Yutaka; Ohkubo, Takayoshi

    2017-12-01

    Several observational studies have found modifying effects of functional status on the association between conventional office blood pressure (BP) and adverse outcomes. We aimed to examine whether the association between higher BP and stroke was attenuated or inverted among older adults with impaired function using self-measured home BP measurements. We followed 501 Japanese community-dwelling adults aged at least 60 years (mean age, 68.6 years) with no history of stroke. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios for 1-SD increase in home BP and office BP measurements were calculated by the Cox proportional hazards model. Functional status was assessed by self-reported physical function. During a median follow-up of 11.5 years, first strokes were observed in 47 participants. Higher home SBP, but not office SBP, was significantly associated with increased risk of stroke among both 349 participants with normal physical function and 152 participants with impaired physical function [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) per 14.4-mmHg increase: 1.74 (1.12-2.69) and 1.77 (1.06-2.94), respectively], with no significant interaction for physical function (P = 0.56). Higher home DBP, but not office DBP, was also significantly associated with increased risk of stroke (P ≤ 0.029) irrespective of physical function (all P > 0.05 for interaction). Neither home BP nor office BP was significantly associated with all-cause mortality irrespective of physical function. Higher home BP was associated with increased risk of stroke even among those with impaired physical function. Measurements of home BP would be useful for stroke prevention, even after physical function decline.

  17. Cumulants in perturbation expansions for non-equilibrium field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fauser, R.

    1995-11-01

    The formulation of perturbation expansions for a quantum field theory of strongly interacting systems in a general non-equilibrium state is discussed. Non-vanishing initial correlations are included in the formulation of the perturbation expansion in terms of cumulants. The cumulants are shown to be the suitable candidate for summing up the perturbation expansion. Also a linked-cluster theorem for the perturbation series with cumulants is presented. Finally a generating functional of the perturbation series with initial correlations is studied. We apply the methods to a simple model of a fermion-boson system. (orig.)

  18. The functional dependence of the total hazard from an air pollution incidence on the environmental parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skibin, D.

    1980-01-01

    A general case of release to the atmosphere of a pollutant is considered. In hazards evaluation the processes involved are usually estimated conservatively so as to maximize the computed doses. The present work helps to identify the worst cases. In addition, a model of the total dose is presented and its variations are studied as a function of wind speed, deposition velocity and source height. The value of each parameter giving the highest total dose as a function of the model's parameters is determined. (H.K.)

  19. Cumulative risk, cumulative outcome: a 20-year longitudinal study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leslie Atkinson

    Full Text Available Cumulative risk (CR models provide some of the most robust findings in the developmental literature, predicting numerous and varied outcomes. Typically, however, these outcomes are predicted one at a time, across different samples, using concurrent designs, longitudinal designs of short duration, or retrospective designs. We predicted that a single CR index, applied within a single sample, would prospectively predict diverse outcomes, i.e., depression, intelligence, school dropout, arrest, smoking, and physical disease from childhood to adulthood. Further, we predicted that number of risk factors would predict number of adverse outcomes (cumulative outcome; CO. We also predicted that early CR (assessed at age 5/6 explains variance in CO above and beyond that explained by subsequent risk (assessed at ages 12/13 and 19/20. The sample consisted of 284 individuals, 48% of whom were diagnosed with a speech/language disorder. Cumulative risk, assessed at 5/6-, 12/13-, and 19/20-years-old, predicted aforementioned outcomes at age 25/26 in every instance. Furthermore, number of risk factors was positively associated with number of negative outcomes. Finally, early risk accounted for variance beyond that explained by later risk in the prediction of CO. We discuss these findings in terms of five criteria posed by these data, positing a "mediated net of adversity" model, suggesting that CR may increase some central integrative factor, simultaneously augmenting risk across cognitive, quality of life, psychiatric and physical health outcomes.

  20. Liver function tests and risk prediction of incident type 2 diabetes : evaluation in two independent cohorts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbasi, Ali; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Corpeleijn, Eva; van der A, Daphne L.; Gansevoort, Ron T.; Gans, Rijk O. B.; Peelen, Linda M.; van der Schouw, Yvonne T.; Stolk, Ronald P.; Navis, Gerjan; Spijkerman, Annemieke M. W.; Beulens, Joline W. J.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Liver function tests might predict the risk of type 2 diabetes. An independent study evaluating utility of these markers compared with an existing prediction model is yet lacking. Methods and Findings: We performed a case-cohort study, including random subcohort (6.5%) from 38,379

  1. Cumulative stress and autonomic dysregulation in a community sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampert, Rachel; Tuit, Keri; Hong, Kwang-Ik; Donovan, Theresa; Lee, Forrester; Sinha, Rajita

    2016-05-01

    Whether cumulative stress, including both chronic stress and adverse life events, is associated with decreased heart rate variability (HRV), a non-invasive measure of autonomic status which predicts poor cardiovascular outcomes, is unknown. Healthy community dwelling volunteers (N = 157, mean age 29 years) participated in the Cumulative Stress/Adversity Interview (CAI), a 140-item event interview measuring cumulative adversity including major life events, life trauma, recent life events and chronic stressors, and underwent 24-h ambulatory ECG monitoring. HRV was analyzed in the frequency domain and standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN) calculated. Initial simple regression analyses revealed that total cumulative stress score, chronic stressors and cumulative adverse life events (CALE) were all inversely associated with ultra low-frequency (ULF), very low-frequency (VLF) and low-frequency (LF) power and SDNN (all p accounting for additional appreciable variance. For VLF and LF, both total cumulative stress and chronic stress significantly contributed to the variance alone but were not longer significant after adjusting for race and health behaviors. In summary, total cumulative stress, and its components of adverse life events and chronic stress were associated with decreased cardiac autonomic function as measured by HRV. Findings suggest one potential mechanism by which stress may exert adverse effects on mortality in healthy individuals. Primary preventive strategies including stress management may prove beneficial.

  2. Marine Bioactives as Functional Food Ingredients: Potential to Reduce the Incidence of Chronic Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lordan, Sinéad; Ross, R. Paul; Stanton, Catherine

    2011-01-01

    The marine environment represents a relatively untapped source of functional ingredients that can be applied to various aspects of food processing, storage, and fortification. Moreover, numerous marine-based compounds have been identified as having diverse biological activities, with some reported to interfere with the pathogenesis of diseases. Bioactive peptides isolated from fish protein hydrolysates as well as algal fucans, galactans and alginates have been shown to possess anticoagulant, anticancer and hypocholesterolemic activities. Additionally, fish oils and marine bacteria are excellent sources of omega-3 fatty acids, while crustaceans and seaweeds contain powerful antioxidants such as carotenoids and phenolic compounds. On the basis of their bioactive properties, this review focuses on the potential use of marine-derived compounds as functional food ingredients for health maintenance and the prevention of chronic diseases. PMID:21747748

  3. Marine Bioactives as Functional Food Ingredients: Potential to Reduce the Incidence of Chronic Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Stanton

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The marine environment represents a relatively untapped source of functional ingredients that can be applied to various aspects of food processing, storage, and fortification. Moreover, numerous marine-based compounds have been identified as having diverse biological activities, with some reported to interfere with the pathogenesis of diseases. Bioactive peptides isolated from fish protein hydrolysates as well as algal fucans, galactans and alginates have been shown to possess anticoagulant, anticancer and hypocholesterolemic activities. Additionally, fish oils and marine bacteria are excellent sources of omega-3 fatty acids, while crustaceans and seaweeds contain powerful antioxidants such as carotenoids and phenolic compounds. On the basis of their bioactive properties, this review focuses on the potential use of marine-derived compounds as functional food ingredients for health maintenance and the prevention of chronic diseases.

  4. Association of Rare Loss-Of-Function Alleles in HAL, Serum Histidine: Levels and Incident Coronary Heart Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bing; Li, Alexander H; Muzny, Donna; Veeraraghavan, Narayanan; de Vries, Paul S; Bis, Joshua C; Musani, Solomon K; Alexander, Danny; Morrison, Alanna C; Franco, Oscar H; Uitterlinden, André; Hofman, Albert; Dehghan, Abbas; Wilson, James G; Psaty, Bruce M; Gibbs, Richard; Wei, Peng; Boerwinkle, Eric

    2015-04-01

    Histidine is a semiessential amino acid with antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. Few data are available on the associations between genetic variants, histidine levels, and incident coronary heart disease (CHD) in a population-based sample. By conducting whole exome sequencing on 1152 African Americans in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and focusing on loss-of-function (LoF) variants, we identified 3 novel rare LoF variants in HAL, a gene that encodes histidine ammonia-lyase in the first step of histidine catabolism. These LoF variants had large effects on blood histidine levels (β=0.26; P=1.2×10(-13)). The positive association with histidine levels was replicated by genotyping an independent sample of 718 ARIC African Americans (minor allele frequency=1%; P=1.2×10(-4)). In addition, high blood histidine levels were associated with reduced risk of developing incident CHD with an average of 21.5 years of follow-up among African Americans (hazard ratio=0.18; P=1.9×10(-4)). This finding was validated in an independent sample of European Americans from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) Offspring Cohort. However, LoF variants in HAL were not directly significantly associated with incident CHD after meta-analyzing results from the CHARGE Consortium. Three LoF mutations in HAL were associated with increased histidine levels, which in turn were shown to be inversely related to the risk of CHD among both African Americans and European Americans. Future investigations on the association between HAL gene variation and CHD are warranted. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  5. The trapping of potassium atoms by a polycrystalline tungsten surface as a function of energy and angle of incidence. ch. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurkmans, A.; Overbosch, E.G.; Olander, D.R.; Los, J.

    1976-01-01

    The trapping probability of potassium atoms on a polycrystalline tungsten surface has been measured as a function of the angle of incidence and as a function of the energy of the incoming atoms. Below an energy of 1 eV the trapping was complete; above 20 eV only reflection occurred. The trapping probability increased with increasing angle of incidence. The measurements are compared with a simple model of the fraction of atoms initially trapped. The model, a one-dimensional cube model including a Boltzmann distribution of the velocities of oscillating surface atoms, partially explains the data. The trapping probability as a function of incoming energy is well described for normal incidence, justifying the inclusion of thermal motion of the surface atoms in the model. The angular dependence can be explained in a qualitative way, although there is a substantial discrepancy for large angles of incidence, showing the presence of surface structure. (Auth.)

  6. Cumulative radiation exposure in children with cystic fibrosis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Reilly, R

    2010-02-01

    This retrospective study calculated the cumulative radiation dose for children with cystic fibrosis (CF) attending a tertiary CF centre. Information on 77 children with a mean age of 9.5 years, a follow up time of 658 person years and 1757 studies including 1485 chest radiographs, 215 abdominal radiographs and 57 computed tomography (CT) scans, of which 51 were thoracic CT scans, were analysed. The average cumulative radiation dose was 6.2 (0.04-25) mSv per CF patient. Cumulative radiation dose increased with increasing age and number of CT scans and was greater in children who presented with meconium ileus. No correlation was identified between cumulative radiation dose and either lung function or patient microbiology cultures. Radiation carries a risk of malignancy and children are particularly susceptible. Every effort must be made to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure in these patients whose life expectancy is increasing.

  7. The Incidence of Functional Disorders and Clinical Symptoms that May be Associated with Lactase Deficiency in Infants of Lviv

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.V. Tkach

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Today, the violations of the digestive system in children of the first years of life remain the actual problem of practical pediatrics and are the common cause for parents to visit a doctor. The importance in the genesis of functional disorders of the digestive system in children of this age may belongs to lactase deficiency. 327 children from Lviv were included in the questionnaire survey. The aim of the study was to evaluate the incidence of clinical symptoms that may be associated with lactase deficiency in infants. Among the clinical symptoms in young children, according to the survey, regurgitation and colic, stool disorders dominated. The diagnosis of lactase deficiency was established in 3.4 % (11 of children, 2.8 % (9 children received enzyme of lactase.

  8. Diuretics, Limited Ultrafiltration, and Residual Renal Function in Incident Hemodialysis Patients: A Case Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjolund, Jessica; Garcia Anton, Desiree; Bayes, Liz Y; Hoekstra, Tiny; Dekker, Friedo W; Munoz Mendoza, Jair

    2016-09-01

    The effect of diuretics on residual renal function expressed as residual GFR (rGFR) and urine volume (rUV) using 24-hour urine collections has not been well examined in hemodialysis (HD) patients. We present a small (seven patient) but provocative case series describing a strikingly low rate of decline in rUV and rGFR (average of creatinine and urea clearances, 24-hour urine collections) in patients treated with increasing doses of furosemide (up to 360 mg/day) during the first 2 years after initiation of HD. Between 6 and 12 months, the mean rUV fell by 1 ml/month, whereas rGFR declined by 0.03 ml/min/1.73 m(2) /month. The mean rate of decline from 12 to 24 months for rUV (33 ml/month) and rGFR (0.02 ml/min/1.73 m(2) /month) were also low. While data are clearly limited and the observation retrospective, they are consistent with the better documented benefit of diuretics observed in end-stage renal disease patients treated with peritoneal dialysis. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Pulmonary Function and Incidence of Selected Respiratory Diseases Depending on the Exposure to Ambient PM10

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artur Badyda

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available It is essential in pulmonary disease research to take into account traffic-related air pollutant exposure among urban inhabitants. In our study, 4985 people were examined for spirometric parameters in the presented research which was conducted in the years 2008–2012. The research group was divided into urban and rural residents. Traffic density, traffic structure and velocity, as well as concentrations of selected air pollutants (CO, NO2 and PM10 were measured at selected areas. Among people who live in the city, lower percentages of predicted values of spirometric parameters were noticed in comparison to residents of rural areas. Taking into account that the difference in the five-year mean concentration of PM10 in the considered city and rural areas was over 17 μg/m3, each increase of PM10 by 10 μg/m3 is associated with the decline in FEV1 (forced expiratory volume during the first second of expiration by 1.68%. These findings demonstrate that traffic-related air pollutants may have a significant influence on the decline of pulmonary function and the growing rate of respiratory diseases.

  10. Diet-Induced Obesity Is Associated with an Impaired NK Cell Function and an Increased Colon Cancer Incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ina Bähr

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Obesity is associated with an increased colon cancer incidence, but underlying mechanisms remained unclear. Previous studies showed altered Natural killer (NK cell functions in obese individuals. Therefore, we studied the impact of an impaired NK cell functionality on the increased colon cancer risk in obesity. In vitro investigations demonstrated a decreased IFN-γ secretion and cytotoxicity of human NK cells against colon tumor cells after NK cell preincubation with the adipokine leptin. In addition, leptin incubation decreased the expression of activating NK cell receptors. In animal studies, colon cancer growth was induced by injection of azoxymethane (AOM in normal weight and diet-induced obese rats. Body weight and visceral fat mass were increased in obese animals compared to normal weight rats. AOM-treated obese rats showed an increased quantity, size, and weight of colon tumors compared to the normal weight tumor group. Immunohistochemical analyses demonstrated a decreased number of NK cells in spleen and liver in obesity. Additionally, the expression levels of activating NK cell receptors were lower in spleen and liver of obese rats. The results show for the first time that the decreased number and impaired NK cell function may be one cause for the higher colon cancer risk in obesity.

  11. The Algebra of the Cumulative Percent Operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Andrew J.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses how to help students avoid some pervasive reasoning errors in solving cumulative percent problems. Discusses the meaning of ."%+b%." the additive inverse of ."%." and other useful applications. Emphasizes the operational aspect of the cumulative percent concept. (KHR)

  12. Adaptive strategies for cumulative cultural learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehn, Micael; Laland, Kevin

    2012-05-21

    The demographic and ecological success of our species is frequently attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture. However, it is not yet known how humans combine social and asocial learning to generate effective strategies for learning in a cumulative cultural context. Here we explore how cumulative culture influences the relative merits of various pure and conditional learning strategies, including pure asocial and social learning, critical social learning, conditional social learning and individual refiner strategies. We replicate the Rogers' paradox in the cumulative setting. However, our analysis suggests that strategies that resolved Rogers' paradox in a non-cumulative setting may not necessarily evolve in a cumulative setting, thus different strategies will optimize cumulative and non-cumulative cultural learning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16... § 651.16 Cumulative impacts. (a) NEPA analyses must assess cumulative effects, which are the impact on the environment resulting from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present...

  14. A paradox of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

    2015-08-21

    Culture can grow cumulatively if socially learnt behaviors are improved by individual learning before being passed on to the next generation. Previous authors showed that this kind of learning strategy is unlikely to be evolutionarily stable in the presence of a trade-off between learning and reproduction. This is because culture is a public good that is freely exploited by any member of the population in their model (cultural social dilemma). In this paper, we investigate the effect of vertical transmission (transmission from parents to offspring), which decreases the publicness of culture, on the evolution of cumulative culture in both infinite and finite population models. In the infinite population model, we confirm that culture accumulates largely as long as transmission is purely vertical. It turns out, however, that introduction of even slight oblique transmission drastically reduces the equilibrium level of culture. Even more surprisingly, if the population size is finite, culture hardly accumulates even under purely vertical transmission. This occurs because stochastic extinction due to random genetic drift prevents a learning strategy from accumulating enough culture. Overall, our theoretical results suggest that introducing vertical transmission alone does not really help solve the cultural social dilemma problem. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Nodal structure and phase shifts of zero-incident-energy wave functions: Multiparticle single-channel scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwinski, Z.R.; Rosenberg, L.; Spruch, L.

    1986-01-01

    For potential scattering, with delta/sub L/(k) the phase shift modulo π for an incident wave number k, Levinson's theorem gives delta/sub L/(0)-delta/sub L/(infinity) in terms of N/sub L/, the number of bound states of angular momentum L, for delta/sub L/(k) assumed to be a continuous function of k. N/sub L/ also determines the number of nodes of the zero-energy wave function u/sub L/(r). A knowledge of the nodal structure and of the absolute value of delta/sub L/(0) is very useful in theoretical studies of low-energy potential scattering. Two preliminary attempts, one formal and one ''physical,'' are made to extend the above results to single-channel scattering by a compound system initially in its ground state. The nodal structure will be of greater interest to us here than an extension of Levinson's theorem

  16. Cumulative effects of repeated exposure to pO2 = 200 kPa (2 atm).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shykoff, Barbara E

    2014-01-01

    Even asymptomatic exposures to elevated oxygen partial pressure (pO2) can influence subsequent exposures. Dry chamber dives of three hours' duration at pO2 of 200 kPa were conducted to examine cumulative effects. Experiments were single (n = 27), or paired exposures with surface intervals (SIs) 15 to 17 hours (n = 30), six hours (n = 33), or three hours (n = 36). Flow-volume loops, diffusing capacity, and symptoms were recorded before and after exposures. Immediately after surfacing from second exposures, some significant (p < 0.05) mean changes from baseline in pulmonary function indices occurred for all SIs and persisted for two days for three-hour SIs and for one day for 15-hour SIs. Incidences of symptoms were 15% immediately after one exposure and 28%, 38% and 31% immediately after a second exposure following 15-, six- , or three-hour SIs, respectively. Incidences of changes in pulmonary function indices (deltaPF) were 5%, 11%, 12% and 14% for single exposures or two with 15-, six-, or three-hour SIs, respectively. Two days following the second exposure, resolution of symptoms was incomplete after six- or 15-hour SIs, as was resolution of deltaPF after 15-hour SIs. The incidences indicate non-linear superposition of effects of a first and second exposure, and are not readily explained by delayed-onset injury.

  17. Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Olazarán

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD, with control of vascular factors (VFs. Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (nD, past depression (pD, present depression (prD, and present and past depression (prpD. Logistic regression was used. Results. Data of 1,807 subjects were investigated at baseline (mean age 74.3, 59.3% women, and 1,376 (81.6% subjects were evaluated after three years. The prevalence of dementia at baseline was 6.7%, and dementia incidence was 6.3%. An effect of depression was observed on dementia prevalence (OR [CI 95%] 1.84 [1.01–3.35] for prD and 2.73 [1.08–6.87] for prpD, and on dementia due to AD (OR 1.98 [0.98–3.99] for prD and OR 3.98 [1.48–10.71] for prpD (fully adjusted models, nD as reference. Depression did not influence dementia incidence. Conclusions. Present depression and, particularly, present and past depression are associated with dementia at old age. Multiple mechanisms, including toxic effect of depression on hippocampal neurons, plausibly explain these associations.

  18. Longitudinal study on thyroid function in patients with thalassemia major: High incidence of central hypothyroidism by 18 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf T Soliman

    2013-01-01

    was found between ferritin and TSH. Conclusions: Worsening of thyroid function was observed in 35% of the studied thalassemic patients by the age of 18 years. The lack of proper increase of TSH in response to the low circulating levels of FT4 in 13/17 (76% of these patients indicates a relatively high incidence of defective pituitary thyrotrophic function in these patients.

  19. Complete cumulative index (1963-1983)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    This complete cumulative index covers all regular and special issues and supplements published by Atomic Energy Review (AER) during its lifetime (1963-1983). The complete cumulative index consists of six Indexes: the Index of Abstracts, the Subject Index, the Title Index, the Author Index, the Country Index and the Table of Elements Index. The complete cumulative index supersedes the Cumulative Indexes for Volumes 1-7: 1963-1969 (1970), and for Volumes 1-10: 1963-1972 (1972); this Index also finalizes Atomic Energy Review, the publication of which has recently been terminated by the IAEA

  20. Update of neutron dose yields as a function of energy for protons and deuterons incident on beryllium targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ten Haken, R.K.; Awschalom, M.; Rosenberg, I.

    1982-11-01

    Neutron absorbed dose yields (absorbed dose rates per unit incident current on targets at a given SAD or SSD) increase with incident charged particle energy for both protons and deuterons. Analyses of neutron dose yield versus incident particle energy have been performed for both deuterons and protons. It is the purpose of this report to update those analyses by pooling all of the more recent published results and to reanalyze the trend of yield, Y, versus incident energy, E, which in the past has been described by an expression of the form Y = aE/sup b/, where a and b are empirical constants. From the reanalyzed trend it is concluded that for a given size cyclotron (E/sub p/ = 2E/sub d/), the dose yields using protons are higher than those using deuterons up to a proton energy E/sub p/ of 64 MeV

  1. System-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, NEWTONP, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Program finds probability required to yield given system reliability. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

  2. Common-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest, M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CROSSER, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), used independently of one another. Point of equality between reliability of system and common reliability of components found. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

  3. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact...

  4. Cumulative Student Loan Debt in Minnesota, 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Wyche, Shaun

    2016-01-01

    To better understand student debt in Minnesota, the Minnesota Office of Higher Education (the Office) gathers information on cumulative student loan debt from Minnesota degree-granting institutions. These data detail the number of students with loans by institution, the cumulative student loan debt incurred at that institution, and the percentage…

  5. Serum uric acid to creatinine ratio: A predictor of incident chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with preserved kidney function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Liubao; Huang, Liji; Wu, Haidi; Lou, Qinglin; Bian, Rongwen

    2017-05-01

    Serum uric acid has shown to be a predictor of renal disease progression in most but not all studies. This study aims to test whether renal function-normalized serum uric acid is superior to serum uric acid as the predictor of incident chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients. In this study, 1339 type 2 diabetes mellitus patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate ⩾60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 and normouricemia were included. Renal function-normalized serum uric acid was calculated using serum uric acid/creatinine. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the association between serum uric acid, renal function-normalized serum uric acid and incident chronic kidney disease. In total, 74 (5.53%) patients developed to chronic kidney disease 3 or greater during a median follow-up of 4 years, with older ages, longer diabetes duration and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate at baseline. The decline rate of estimated glomerular filtration rate was positively correlated with serum uric acid/creatinine ( r = 0.219, p uric acid ( r = 0.005, p = 0.858). Moreover, multivariate analysis revealed that serum uric acid was not an independent risk factor for incident chronic kidney disease ( p = 0.055), whereas serum uric acid to creatinine ratio was significantly associated with incident chronic kidney disease independently of potential confounders including baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate. serum uric acid to creatinine ratio might be a better predictor of incident chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

  6. Cumulants of heat transfer across nonlinear quantum systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huanan; Agarwalla, Bijay Kumar; Li, Baowen; Wang, Jian-Sheng

    2013-12-01

    We consider thermal conduction across a general nonlinear phononic junction. Based on two-time observation protocol and the nonequilibrium Green's function method, heat transfer in steady-state regimes is studied, and practical formulas for the calculation of the cumulant generating function are obtained. As an application, the general formalism is used to study anharmonic effects on fluctuation of steady-state heat transfer across a single-site junction with a quartic nonlinear on-site pinning potential. An explicit nonlinear modification to the cumulant generating function exact up to the first order is given, in which the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation symmetry is found still valid. Numerically a self-consistent procedure is introduced, which works well for strong nonlinearity.

  7. A cross-sectional study of the relationship between serum liver enzymes level and the incidence of impaired fasting glucose in males and females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Guangming; Lu, Lihong; Xiao, Yufei; Zhu, Yimiao; Pan, Wensheng; Xu, Xiang; Shen, Shengrong; Das, Undurti N

    2014-07-28

    The aim of this study was to investigate the possible correlation between levels of serum liver enzymes and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in Chinese adults and to provide a new perspective for the prevention of pre-diabetes. Serum liver enzymes of the samples including alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and g-glutamyl transferase (GGT), as well as plasma glucose, blood lipids, and insulin, were measured. The cumulative incidences of IFG between different quartiles of liver enzymes were compared by the chi-square test. A logistic regression model (binary regression) was used to calculate the odds ratio (OR) of IFG with 95% confidence interval (95% CI). The total incidence of IFG was 20.3% and the cumulative incidence of IFG was higher in men compared to women. In both sexes, IFG is more prevalent in higher quartiles of liver enzymes. After adjusting for age, BMI, blood pressure, triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and total cholesterol (TC), the cumulative incidences of IFG were significantly higher in the highest quartiles of liver enzymes than in the lowest quartiles. A significantly higher cumulative incidence of IFG was found in the highest GGT quartile than in the lowest quartile for woman. The results of this study suggest that serum liver enzymes are related to the risk of IFG in Chinese adults. We infer that preserving the hepatic function may be an efficient way to prevent the development of IFG, especially in males.

  8. Fractal dimension and geostatistical parameters for soil microrelief as a function of cumulative precipitation Parâmetros fractais e geoestatística do microrrelevo do solo em função de chuva acumulada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Vidal Vázquez

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Surface roughness isinfluenced by type and intensity of soil tillage among other factors, and it changes considerably with rain. In microrelief studies the advantages of using indices such as the fractal dimension, D, and the crossover length, l, is that they allow the partition of the roughness characteristics into properties that depend purely on the scale and on a scale free component, respectively. On the other hand, some geostatistical parameters may provide different ways to understand soil surface variability not addressed with fractal parameters. Changes in fractal dimension and semivariogram parameters for surface roughness evolution were evaluated as a function of cumulative rainfall on Oxisol samples over six tillage treatments, namely, disc harrow, disc plow, chisel plow, disc harrow+disc level, disc plow+disc level and chisel plow+disc level. Measurements were taken in each tillage treatment after rainfall events yielding a total of 48 experimental surfaces measured with a pin microrelief meter. The plot had 135 cm by 135 cm and the sample spacing was 25 mm. Trends due to plot slope component with its concavities and convexities and to agricultural practices were removed from field data sets. A semivariogram model was fitted to each of the surfaces and the model parameters were analyzed and related to the fractal dimension, D, and crossover length, l. A relationship was found between the fractal dimension, D, and semivariogram model parameters. The cross over length, l,did not show as strong relationships with the semivariogram model parameters, even though there was a power relation between D and l.A rugosidade da superfície pode ser influenciada pelo tipo e pela intensidade do preparo do solo entre outros fatores. A vantagem de se usar índices fractais em estudos de microrrelevo é que eles permitem a partição das características da rugosidade em propriedades ou que dependem exclusivamente da escala ou que independem

  9. Cumulative or delayed nephrotoxicity after cisplatin (DDP) treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinnarò, P; Ruggeri, E M; Carlini, P; Giovannelli, M; Cognetti, F

    1986-04-30

    The present retrospective study reports data regarding renal toxicity in 115 patients (63 males, 52 females; median age, 56 years) who received cumulative doses of cisplatin (DDP) greater than or equal to 200 mg/m2. DDP was administered alone or in combination at a dose of 50-70 mg/m2 in 91 patients, and at a dose of 100 mg/m2 in 22 patients. Two patients after progression of ovarian carcinoma treated with conventional doses of DDP received 4 and 2 courses, respectively, of high-dose DDP (40 mg/m2 for 5 days) in hypertonic saline. The median number of DDP courses was 6 (range 2-14), and the median cumulative dose was 350 mg/m2 (range, 200-1200). Serum creatinine and urea nitrogen were determined before initiating the treatment and again 13-16 days after each administration. The incidence of azotemia (creatinina levels that exceeded 1.5 mg/dl) was similar before (7.8%) and after (6.1%) DDP doses of 200 mg/m2. Azotemia appears to be related to the association of DDP with other potentially nephrotoxic antineoplastic drugs (methotrexate) more than to the dose per course of DDP. Of 59 patients followed for 2 months or more after discontinuing the DDP treatment, 3 (5.1%) presented creatinine values higher than 1.5 mg/dl. The data deny that the incidence of nephrotoxicity is higher in patients receiving higher cumulative doses of DDP and confirm that increases in serum creatinine levels may occur some time after discontinuation of the drug.

  10. The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and Mental Health of Employees in ... CAs were measured in three forms (family adversities (CAFam), personal adversities ... Age of employees ranged between 18-65 years.

  11. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children’s learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission—the cornerstone of human cultural diversity. PMID:28739945

  12. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querbes, A.; Vaesen, K.; Houkes, W.N.

    2014-01-01

    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological

  13. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J; Halpern, Benjamin S; Breed, Greg A; Nickel, Barry; Teutschel, Nicole M; Crowder, Larry B; Benson, Scott; Dutton, Peter H; Bailey, Helen; Kappes, Michelle A; Kuhn, Carey E; Weise, Michael J; Mate, Bruce; Shaffer, Scott A; Hassrick, Jason L; Henry, Robert W; Irvine, Ladd; McDonald, Birgitte I; Robinson, Patrick W; Block, Barbara A; Costa, Daniel P

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact (CUI) on marine predators by combining electronic tracking data of eight protected predator species (n=685 individuals) in the California Current Ecosystem with data on 24 anthropogenic stressors. We show significant variation in CUI with some of the highest impacts within US National Marine Sanctuaries. High variation in underlying species and cumulative impact distributions means that neither alone is sufficient for effective spatial management. Instead, comprehensive management approaches accounting for both cumulative human impacts and trade-offs among multiple stressors must be applied in planning the use of marine resources.

  14. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legare, Cristine H

    2017-07-24

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children's learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission-the cornerstone of human cultural diversity.

  15. The incidence of burnout or compassion fatigue in medical dosimetrists as a function of various stress and psychologic factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, Michelle

    2013-01-01

    ABSTRACT: Burnout and compassion fatigue (CF) adversely affect medical professionals, including those employed in radiation oncology. Previously conducted research acknowledged the presence of burnout in populations of radiation therapists, radiation oncologists, and oncology nursing staff. The aim of the following research was to measure the incidence of burnout or CF in the specific population of medical dosimetrists surveyed. As professional members of the radiation oncology team, this group had not been included in published research data to date. The hypothesis of the subsequent study stated that a comparable incidence of burnout would be observed among medical dosimetrists as had been reported by earlier researchers for a population of radiation therapists. A survey tool based on the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) and distributed to full members of the American Association of Medical Dosimetrists (AAMD) was utilized as the research measurement method. Results obtained indicated an incidence rates of burnout or CF for medical dosimetrists were less than the rates previously measured for radiation therapists (53% vs 11% for emotional exhaustion [EE] and 45% vs 27% for depersonalization [DP]). The incidence of burnout was based on the Burnout Inventory (BI) developed for the research project. Each of the subscales, EE, DP, and decreased personal accomplishment (PA), was considered and analyzed independently. Although not as prevalent among medical dosimetrists as a variety of additional radiation oncology professionals, a significant portion of the population demonstrated signs of burnout or CF. Future concerns abound for the population of medical dosimetrists as a large number of members scored positive for intermediate risk of burnout and CF. Additionally, a large portion of the population was found to be rapidly approaching retirement

  16. The incidence of burnout or compassion fatigue in medical dosimetrists as a function of various stress and psychologic factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howard, Michelle, E-mail: Mhoward24601@yahoo.com [University of Wisconsin—La Crosse, WI 54601 (United States)

    2013-04-01

    ABSTRACT: Burnout and compassion fatigue (CF) adversely affect medical professionals, including those employed in radiation oncology. Previously conducted research acknowledged the presence of burnout in populations of radiation therapists, radiation oncologists, and oncology nursing staff. The aim of the following research was to measure the incidence of burnout or CF in the specific population of medical dosimetrists surveyed. As professional members of the radiation oncology team, this group had not been included in published research data to date. The hypothesis of the subsequent study stated that a comparable incidence of burnout would be observed among medical dosimetrists as had been reported by earlier researchers for a population of radiation therapists. A survey tool based on the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) and distributed to full members of the American Association of Medical Dosimetrists (AAMD) was utilized as the research measurement method. Results obtained indicated an incidence rates of burnout or CF for medical dosimetrists were less than the rates previously measured for radiation therapists (53% vs 11% for emotional exhaustion [EE] and 45% vs 27% for depersonalization [DP]). The incidence of burnout was based on the Burnout Inventory (BI) developed for the research project. Each of the subscales, EE, DP, and decreased personal accomplishment (PA), was considered and analyzed independently. Although not as prevalent among medical dosimetrists as a variety of additional radiation oncology professionals, a significant portion of the population demonstrated signs of burnout or CF. Future concerns abound for the population of medical dosimetrists as a large number of members scored positive for intermediate risk of burnout and CF. Additionally, a large portion of the population was found to be rapidly approaching retirement.

  17. Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

  18. Spinal Cord Injury due to Tumour or Metastasis in Aragón, Northeastern Spain (1991–2008: Incidence, Time Trends, and Neurological Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maayken Elizabeth Louise van den Berg

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Understanding the presentation of spinal cord injury (SCI due to tumours considering population distribution and temporal trends is key to managing SCI health services. This study quantified incidence rates, function scores, and trends of SCI due to tumour or metastasis over an 18-year time period in a defined region in Spain. Methods. A retrospective cohort study included in-and outpatients with nontraumatic SCI due to tumour or metastasis admitted to a metropolitan hospital in Spain between 1991 and 2008. Main outcome measures were crude and age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates, tumour location and type, distribution by spinal level, neurological level of injury, and impairment ASIA scores. Results. Primary tumour or metastasis accounted for 32.5% of nontraumatic SCI with an incidence rate of 4.1 per million population. Increasing rates with age and over time were observed. Major pathology groups were intradural-extramedullary masses from which meningiomas and neurinomas accounted for 40%. Lesions were mostly incomplete with predominant ASIA Grade D. Conclusions. Increasing incidence rates of tumour-related SCI over time in the middle-aged and the elderly suggest a growing need for neurooncology health resources in the future.

  19. Investigation of photon detection probability dependence of SPADnet-I digital photon counter as a function of angle of incidence, wavelength and polarization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Játékos, Balázs, E-mail: jatekosb@eik.bme.hu; Ujhelyi, Ferenc; Lőrincz, Emőke; Erdei, Gábor

    2015-01-01

    SPADnet-I is a prototype, fully digital, high spatial and temporal resolution silicon photon counter, based on standard CMOS imaging technology, developed by the SPADnet consortium. Being a novel device, the exact dependence of photon detection probability (PDP) of SPADnet-I was not known as a function of angle of incidence, wavelength and polarization of the incident light. Our targeted application area of this sensor is next generation PET detector modules, where they will be used along with LYSO:Ce scintillators. Hence, we performed an extended investigation of PDP in a wide range of angle of incidence (0° to 80°), concentrating onto a 60 nm broad wavelength interval around the characteristic emission peak (λ=420 nm) of the scintillator. In the case where the sensor was optically coupled to a scintillator, our experiments showed a notable dependence of PDP on angle, polarization and wavelength. The sensor has an average PDP of approximately 30% from 0° to 60° angle of incidence, where it starts to drop rapidly. The PDP turned out not to be polarization dependent below 30°. If the sensor is used without a scintillator (i.e. the light source is in air), the polarization dependence is much less expressed, it begins only from 50°.

  20. Cumulative effects assessment: Does scale matter?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Therivel, Riki; Ross, Bill

    2007-01-01

    Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is (or should be) an integral part of environmental assessment at both the project and the more strategic level. CEA helps to link the different scales of environmental assessment in that it focuses on how a given receptor is affected by the totality of plans, projects and activities, rather than on the effects of a particular plan or project. This article reviews how CEAs consider, and could consider, scale issues: spatial extent, level of detail, and temporal issues. It is based on an analysis of Canadian project-level CEAs and UK strategic-level CEAs. Based on a review of literature and, especially, case studies with which the authors are familiar, it concludes that scale issues are poorly considered at both levels, with particular problems being unclear or non-existing cumulative effects scoping methodologies; poor consideration of past or likely future human activities beyond the plan or project in question; attempts to apportion 'blame' for cumulative effects; and, at the plan level, limited management of cumulative effects caused particularly by the absence of consent regimes. Scale issues are important in most of these problems. However both strategic-level and project-level CEA have much potential for managing cumulative effects through better siting and phasing of development, demand reduction and other behavioural changes, and particularly through setting development consent rules for projects. The lack of strategic resource-based thresholds constrains the robust management of strategic-level cumulative effects

  1. The incidence of eating disorders in a Danish register study: Associations with suicide risk and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zerwas, Stephanie; Tidselbak Larsen, Janne; Petersen, Liselotte

    2015-01-01

    Our aim was to characterize the incidence rates and cumulative incidence of anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), and eating disorder not otherwise specified (EDNOS), and examine associations among eating disorder diagnoses, suicide attempts, and mortality. Individuals born in Denmark...

  2. Does the acute pulmonary response to ozone depend on the cumulative exposure?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2008-01-01

    In experimental conditions, repeated ozone exposure induces adaptive phenomena that attenuate lung function and inflammatory responses. But this study did not find that lifetime cumulative exposure had a protective effect; indeed, it found the contrary. (author)

  3. Integral particle reflection coefficient for oblique incidence of photons as universal function in the domain of initial energies up to 300 keV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ljubenov Vladan L.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present the results of calculations and analyses of the integral particle reflection coefficient of photons for oblique photon incidence on planar targets, in the domain of initial photon energies from 100 keV to 300 keV. The results are based on the Monte Carlo simulations of the photon reflection from water, concrete, aluminum, iron, and copper materials, performed by the MCNP code. It has been observed that the integral particle reflection coefficient as a function of the ratio of total cross-section of photons and effective atomic number of target material shows universal behavior for all the analyzed shielding materials in the selected energy domain. Analytical formulas for different angles of photon incidence have been proposed, which describe the reflection of photons for all the materials and energies analyzed.

  4. Barrier function and natural moisturizing factor levels after cumulative exposure to a fruit-derived organic acid and a detergent: different outcomes in atopic and healthy skin and relevance for occupational contact dermatitis in the food industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelova-Fischer, Irena; Hoek, Anne-Karin; Dapic, Irena; Jakasa, Ivone; Kezic, Sanja; Fischer, Tobias W; Zillikens, Detlef

    2015-12-01

    Fruit-derived organic compounds and detergents are relevant exposure factors for occupational contact dermatitis in the food industry. Although individuals with atopic dermatitis (AD) are at risk for development of occupational contact dermatitis, there have been no controlled studies on the effects of repeated exposure to multiple irritants, relevant for the food industry, in atopic skin. The aim of the study was to investigate the outcomes of repeated exposure to a fruit-derived organic acid and a detergent in AD compared to healthy volunteers. The volunteers were exposed to 2.0% acetic acid (AcA) and/or 0.5% sodium lauryl sulfate (SLS) in controlled tandem repeated irritation test. The outcomes were assessed by measurements of erythema, transepidermal water loss (TEWL) and natural moisturizing factor (NMF) levels. In the AD volunteers, repeated AcA exposure led to barrier disruption and significant TEWL increase; no significant differences after the same exposure in the healthy controls were found. Repeated exposure to SLS and the irritant tandems enhanced the reactions and resulted in a significantly higher increase in TEWL in the AD compared to the control group. Cumulative irritant exposure reduced the NMF levels in both groups. Differences in the severity of irritant-induced barrier impairment in atopic individuals contribute to the risk for occupational contact dermatitis in result of multiple exposures to food-derived irritants and detergents. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Renal function, cardiovascular disease risk factors' prevalence and 5-year disease incidence; the role of diet, exercise, lipids and inflammation markers: the ATTICA study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrysohoou, C; Panagiotakos, D B; Pitsavos, C; Skoumas, J; Toutouza, M; Papaioannou, I; Stefanadis, C

    2010-06-01

    We aimed to evaluate the association between renal function and various cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, as well as 5-year incidence of CVD, in a sample of CVD free adults. (i) Cross-sectional information from n = 1975. Greek men and women (>18 years) without CVD and hypertension at baseline examination and (ii) 5-year (2001-06) survival data from n = 2101 individuals without CVD at baseline, all participants in the ATTICA study, were analysed in this work. Kidney function was quantified by the baseline estimated creatinine clearance rate (C(cr)), using the Cockcroft-Gault formula and the National Kidney Foundation recommendations. Outcome of interest was the development of CVD that was defined according to WHO-ICD-10 criteria. At baseline, the prevalence of moderate-to-severe renal dysfunction (i.e. C(cr) smoking, hypercholesterolemia and homocysteine levels and greater adherence to the Mediterranean diet were inversely associated with C(cr) rate (P smoking habits (0.89, 0.60-1.32) and physical activity status (0.86, 0.56-1.21). Renal function seems to be associated with the levels of lifestyle and bio-clinical CVD risk factors and contribute to the long-term incidence of cardiac events. Public health care practitioners should take into account renal function in better preventing the burden of CVD at individual, and population level, as well.

  6. Wheelchair incidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drongelen AW van; Roszek B; Hilbers-Modderman ESM; Kallewaard M; Wassenaar C; LGM

    2002-01-01

    This RIVM study was performed to gain insight into wheelchair-related incidents with powered and manual wheelchairs reported to the USA FDA, the British MDA and the Dutch Center for Quality and Usability Research of Technical Aids (KBOH). The data in the databases do not indicate that incidents with

  7. Activation energy of etching for CR-39 as a function of linear energy transfer of the incident particles

    CERN Document Server

    Awad, E M

    1999-01-01

    In this work, we have studied the effect of the radiation damage caused by the incident particles on the activation energy of etching for CR-39 samples. The damage produced by the incident particle is expressed in terms of the linear energy transfer (LET). CR-39 samples from American Acrylic were irradiated to three different LET particles. These are N (LET sub 2 sub 0 sub 0 = 20 KeV/mu m) as a light particle, Fe (LET sub 2 sub 0 sub 0 = 110 KeV/mu m) as a medium particle and fission fragments (ff) from a sup 2 sup 5 sup 2 Cf source as heavy particles. In general the bulk etch rate was calculated using the weight difference method and the track etch rate was determined using the track geometry at various temperatures (50-90 deg. C) and concentrations (4-9 N) of the NaOH etchant. The average activation energy E sub b related to the bulk etch rate v sub b was calculated from 1n v sub b vs. 1/T. The average activation energy E sub t related to the track etch rate v sub t was estimated from 1n v sub t vs. 1/T. It...

  8. Modes of interaction between nanostructured metal and a conducting mirror as a function of separation and incident polarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnie, F.; Arnold, M. D.; Smith, G. B.; Gentle, A. R.

    2013-09-01

    The optical resonances that occur in nanostructured metal layers are modulated in thin film stacks if the nanostructured layer is separated from a reflecting conducting layer by various thicknesses of thin dielectric. We have measured and modeled the optical response of interacting silver layers, with alumina spacer thickness ranging from a few nm to 50 nm, for s- and p-polarized incident light, and a range of incident angles. Standard thin film models, including standard effective medium models for the nanostructured layer, will break down for spacer thickness below a critical threshold. For example, with polarisation in the film plane and some nano-islands, it may occur at around 10 nm depending on spacer refractive index. Of particular interest here are novel effects observed with the onset of percolation in the nanolayer. Hot spot effects can be modified by nearby mirrors. Other modes to consider include (a) a two-particle mode involving a particle and its mirror image (b) A Fano resonance from hybridisation of localized and de-localised plasmon modes (c) a Babinet's core-(partial) shell particle with metal core-dielectric shell in metal (d) spacing dependent phase modulation (e) the impact of field gradients induced by the mirror at the nano-layer.

  9. Venovenous Bypass Is Associated With a Lower Incidence of Acute Kidney Injury After Liver Transplantation in Patients With Compromised Pretransplant Renal Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Kai; Hong, Fu; Wang, Yun; Agopian, Vatche G; Yan, Min; Busuttil, Ronald W; Steadman, Randolph H; Xia, Victor W

    2017-11-01

    Although the hemodynamic benefits of venovenous bypass (VVB) during liver transplantation (LT) are well appreciated, the impact of VVB on posttransplant renal function is uncertain. The aim of this study was to determine if VVB was associated with a lower incidence of posttransplant acute kidney injury (AKI). Medical records of adult (≥18 years) patients who underwent primary LT between 2004 and 2014 at a tertiary hospital were reviewed. Patients who required pretransplant renal replacement therapy and intraoperative piggyback technique were excluded. Patients were divided into 2 groups, VVB and non-VVB. AKI, determined by the Acute Kidney Injury Network criteria, was compared between the 2 groups. Propensity match was used to control selection bias that occurred before VVB and multivariable logistic regression was used to control confounding factors during and after VVB. Of 1037 adult patients who met the study inclusion criteria, 247 (23.8%) received VVB. A total of 442 patients (221 patients in each group) were matched. Aftermatch patients were further divided according to a predicted probability AKI model using preoperative creatinine (Cr), VVB, and intraoperative variables into 2 subgroups: normal and compromised pretransplant renal functions. In patients with compromised pretransplant renal function (Cr ≥1.2 mg/dL), the incidence of AKI was significantly lower in the VVB group compared with the non-VVB group (37.2% vs 50.8%; P = .033). VVB was an independent risk factor negatively associated with AKI (odds ratio, 0.1; 95% confidence interval, 0.1-0.4; P = .001). Renal replacement in 30 days and 1-year recipient mortality were not significantly different between the 2 groups. The incidence of posttransplant AKI was not significantly different between the 2 groups in patients with normal pretransplant renal function (Cr the role of intraoperative VVB in posttransplant AKI are warranted.

  10. Managing cumulative impacts: A key to sustainability?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunsaker, C.T.

    1994-12-31

    This paper addresses how science can be more effectively used in creating policy to manage cumulative effects on ecosystems. The paper focuses on the scientific techniques that we have to identify and to assess cumulative impacts on ecosystems. The term ``sustainable development`` was brought into common use by the World Commission on Environment and Development (The Brundtland Commission) in 1987. The Brundtland Commission report highlighted the need to simultaneously address developmental and environmental imperatives simultaneously by calling for development that ``meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the needs of future generations.`` We cannot claim to be working toward sustainable development until we can quantitatively assess cumulative impacts on the environment: The two concepts are inextricibally linked in that the elusiveness of cumulative effects likely has the greatest potential of keeping us from achieving sustainability. In this paper, assessment and management frameworks relevant to cumulative impacts are discussed along with recent literature on how to improve such assessments. When possible, examples are given for marine ecosystems.

  11. Effects of weather factors on dengue fever incidence and implications for interventions in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngjo Choi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dengue viruses and their mosquito vectors are sensitive to their environment. Temperature, rainfall and humidity have well-defined roles in the transmission cycle. Therefore changes in these conditions may contribute to increasing incidence. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between weather factors and dengue incidence in three provinces in Cambodia, in order to strengthen the evidence basis of dengue control strategies in this high-burden country. Methods We developed negative binomial models using monthly average maximum, minimum, mean temperatures and monthly cumulative rainfall over the period from January 1998 to December 2012. We adopted piecewise linear functions to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR between dengue incidence and weather factors for simplicity in interpreting the coefficients. We estimated the values of parameters below cut-points defined in terms of the results of sensitivity tests over a 0-3 month lagged period. Results Mean temperature was significantly associated with dengue incidence in all three provinces, but incidence did not correlate well with maximum temperature in Banteay Meanchey, nor with minimum temperature in Kampong Thom at a lag of three months in the negative binomial model. The monthly cumulative rainfall influence on the dengue incidence was significant in all three provinces, but not consistently over a 0-3 month lagged period. Rainfall significantly affected the dengue incidence at a lag of 0 to 3 months in Siem Reap, but it did not have an impact at a lag of 2 to 3 months in Banteay Meanchey, nor at a lag of 2 months in Kampong Thom. Conclusions The association between dengue incidence and weather factors also apparently varies by locality, suggesting that a prospective dengue early warning system would likely be best implemented at a local or regional scale, rather than nation-wide in Cambodia. Such spatial down-scaling would also enable dengue control

  12. Ecosystem assessment methods for cumulative effects at the regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunsaker, C.T.

    1989-01-01

    Environmental issues such as nonpoint-source pollution, acid rain, reduced biodiversity, land use change, and climate change have widespread ecological impacts and require an integrated assessment approach. Since 1978, the implementing regulations for the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have required assessment of potential cumulative environmental impacts. Current environmental issues have encouraged ecologists to improve their understanding of ecosystem process and function at several spatial scales. However, management activities usually occur at the local scale, and there is little consideration of the potential impacts to the environmental quality of a region. This paper proposes that regional ecological risk assessment provides a useful approach for assisting scientists in accomplishing the task of assessing cumulative impacts. Critical issues such as spatial heterogeneity, boundary definition, and data aggregation are discussed. Examples from an assessment of acidic deposition effects on fish in Adirondack lakes illustrate the importance of integrated data bases, associated modeling efforts, and boundary definition at the regional scale

  13. Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2017-11-01

    Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

  14. The incidence of breast cancer following mantle field radiation therapy as a function of dose and technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tinger, Alfred; Wasserman, Todd H.; Klein, Eric E.; Miller, Elizabeth A.; Roberts, Tracy; Piephoff, James V.; Kucik, Nancy A.

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: There is an increased incidence of breast cancer following mantle field radiation therapy for Hodgkin's disease (HD). We reviewed the experience at the Mallinckrodt Institute of Radiology (MIR) for radiation factors related to the development of breast cancer after mantle field radiation therapy for HD. Methods: The radiation therapy records of 152 women treated with mantle field irradiation for HD at MIR between 1966-1985 were reviewed for the development of breast cancer and treatment-related factors. All patients had a minimum of 5 years of follow-up. The treatment era (1966-1974 vs. 1975-1985), stage of HD, mediastinal dose, axillary dose, maximum dose from the anterior field (anterior d max dose), the anterior-posterior:posterior-anterior (AP:PA) ratio, age at the time of treatment, length of follow-up, and history of splenectomy were analyzed as possible contributing factors for the development of breast cancer. The observed number of breast cancers was compared to the expected number based on age-adjusted incidences from the Connecticut Tumor Registry. Results: Ten breast cancers occurred in the population. Eight involved an upper outer quadrant. In a multivariate analysis, the development of breast cancer was significantly associated with axillary dose. Patients in the early treatment era were at an increased risk for the development of breast cancer due to high anterior d max and breast doses from weighting the fields anteriorly on a low energy linear accelerator. The use of current radiation therapy techniques was not related to an increased risk of breast cancer with a median follow-up of 13 years. Conclusions: A high dose to the axilla and the anterior d max point is significantly associated with the development of breast cancer after mantle field irradiation for HD. Efforts to protect the breast from high doses will likely lessen the increased risk of breast cancer in women treated with radiation therapy for HD

  15. Perspectives on cumulative risks and impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faust, John B

    2010-01-01

    Cumulative risks and impacts have taken on different meanings in different regulatory and programmatic contexts at federal and state government levels. Traditional risk assessment methodologies, with considerable limitations, can provide a framework for the evaluation of cumulative risks from chemicals. Under an environmental justice program in California, cumulative impacts are defined to include exposures, public health effects, or environmental effects in a geographic area from the emission or discharge of environmental pollution from all sources, through all media. Furthermore, the evaluation of these effects should take into account sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors where possible and to the extent data are available. Key aspects to this potential approach include the consideration of exposures (versus risk), socioeconomic factors, the geographic or community-level assessment scale, and the inclusion of not only health effects but also environmental effects as contributors to impact. Assessments of this type extend the boundaries of the types of information that toxicologists generally provide for risk management decisions.

  16. Cumulative processes and quark distribution in nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondratyuk, L.; Shmatikov, M.

    1984-01-01

    Assuming existence of multiquark (mainly 12q) bags in nuclei the spectra of cumulative nucleons and mesons produced in high-energy particle-nucleus collisions are discussed. The exponential form of quark momentum distribution in 12q-bag (agreeing well with the experimental data on lepton-nucleus interactions at large q 2 ) is shown to result in quasi-exponential distribution of cumulative particles over the light-cone variable αsub(B). The dependence of f(αsub(B); psub(perpendicular)) (where psub(perpendicular) is the transverse momentum of the bag) upon psub(perpendicular) is considered. The yields of cumulative resonances as well as effects related to the u- and d-quark distributions in N > Z nuclei being different are dicscussed

  17. Cumulative Culture and Future Thinking: Is Mental Time Travel a Prerequisite to Cumulative Cultural Evolution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vale, G. L.; Flynn, E. G.; Kendal, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    Cumulative culture denotes the, arguably, human capacity to build on the cultural behaviors of one's predecessors, allowing increases in cultural complexity to occur such that many of our cultural artifacts, products and technologies have progressed beyond what a single individual could invent alone. This process of cumulative cultural evolution…

  18. Cumulative effects of wind turbines. A guide to assessing the cumulative effects of wind energy development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-07-01

    This guidance provides advice on how to assess the cumulative effects of wind energy developments in an area and is aimed at developers, planners, and stakeholders interested in the development of wind energy in the UK. The principles of cumulative assessment, wind energy development in the UK, cumulative assessment of wind energy development, and best practice conclusions are discussed. The identification and assessment of the cumulative effects is examined in terms of global environmental sustainability, local environmental quality and socio-economic activity. Supplementary guidance for assessing the principle cumulative effects on the landscape, on birds, and on the visual effect is provided. The consensus building approach behind the preparation of this guidance is outlined in the annexes of the report.

  19. Association of Arterial Stiffness and Central Pressure With Cognitive Function in Incident Hemodialysis Patients: The PACE Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther D. Kim

    2017-11-01

    Discussion: Higher AIx and cPP, which are indicative of abnormal wave reflections in distal vessels, are associated with, and might contribute to, declining cognitive function in patients starting hemodialysis.

  20. Cumulative Risk of Bovine Mastitis Treatments in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden

    OpenAIRE

    Valde, JP; Lawson, LG; Lindberg, A; Agger, JF; Saloniemi, H; Østerås, O

    2004-01-01

    Data from the national dairy cow recording systems during 1997 were used to calculate lactation-specific cumulative risk of mastitis treatments and cumulative risk of removal from the herds in Denmark, Finland Norway and Sweden. Sweden had the lowest risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation and Norway had the highest risk. The incidence risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden was 0.177, 0.139, 0.215 and...

  1. Practical management of cumulative anthropogenic impacts with working marine examples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyhn, Line Anker; Wright, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    for petroleum. Human disturbances, including the noise almost ubiquitously associated with human activity, are likely to increase the incidence, magnitude, and duration of adverse effects on marine life, including stress responses. Stress responses have the potential to induce fitness consequences...... on impact can be facilitated through implementation of regular application cycles for project authorization or improved programmatic and aggregated impact assessments that simultaneously consider multiple projects. Cross-company collaborations and a better incorporation of uncertainty into decision making...... could also help limit, if not reduce, cumulative impacts of multiple human activities. These simple management steps may also form the basis of a rudimentary form of marine spatial planning and could be used in support of future ecosystem-based management efforts....

  2. Effects of neurosurgical treatment and severity of head injury on cognitive functioning, general health and incidence of mental disorders in patients with traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaei, Sajjad; Asgari, Karim; Yousefzadeh, Shahrokh; Moosavi, Heshmat-Allah; Kazemnejad, Ehsan

    2012-01-01

    Neurosurgical treatment and the severity of head injury (HI) can have remarkable effect on patients' neuropsychiatric outcomes. This research aimed to study the effect of these factors on cognitive functioning, general health and incidence of mental disorders in patients with a traumatic brain injury (TBI). In this descriptive, longitudinal study, 206 TBI patients entered the study by consecutive sampling; they were then compared according to neurosurgery status and severity of their HI. Both groups underwent neurosurgical and psychological examinations. The mini mental state examination (MMSE) and general health questionnaire-28 items (GHQ-28) were administered to the study participants. At follow-up, four months later, the groups underwent a structured clinical interview by a psychiatrist based on the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV) diagnostic criteria regarding the presence of mental disorders. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) were performed and adjusted for the effect of confounding variables (age, gender, Glasgow outcome scale (GOS) , and level of education). The severity of HI had the most significant effect for the following variables; cognitive functioning and physical symptoms (P < 0.05). The effect of the neurosurgical treatment factor was not significant; however, the interaction effect of the two variables on social dysfunction, and total score of the GHQ-28 questionnaire appeared to be significant (P < 0.05). Fisher's exact test indicated that after a four month follow-up period, no significant differences were seen between the two groups (with or without neurosurgery) in the incidence of mental disorders, while χ(2) Test showed that having a more severe HI is significantly correlated with the incidence of mental disorders (P < 0.01). The implications of this study should be discussed with an emphasis on negative, effective factors on the cognitive

  3. Multiparty correlation measure based on the cumulant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, D. L.; Zeng, B.; Xu, Z.; You, L.

    2006-01-01

    We propose a genuine multiparty correlation measure for a multiparty quantum system as the trace norm of the cumulant of the state. The legitimacy of our multiparty correlation measure is explicitly demonstrated by proving it satisfies the five basic conditions required for a correlation measure. As an application we construct an efficient algorithm for the calculation of our measures for all stabilizer states

  4. Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

    2000-01-01

    Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

  5. Problems of describing the cumulative effect in relativistic nuclear physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldin, A.M.

    1979-01-01

    The problem of describing the cumulative effect i.e., the particle production on nuclei in the range kinematically forbidden for one-nucleon collisions, is studied. Discrimination of events containing cumulative particles fixes configurations in the wave function of a nucleus, when several nucleons are closely spaced and their quark-parton components are collectivized. For the cumulative processes under consideration large distances between quarks are very important. The fundamental facts and theoretical interpretation of the quantum field theory and of the condensed media theory in the relativistic nuclear physics are presented in brief. The collisions of the relativistic nuclei with low momentum transfers is considered in a fast moving coordinate system. The basic parameter determining this type of collisions is the energy of nucleon binding in nuclei. It has been shown that the short-range correlation model provides a good presentation of many characteristics of the multiple particle production and it may be regarded as an approximate universal property of hadron interactions

  6. Energy Current Cumulants in One-Dimensional Systems in Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhar, Abhishek; Saito, Keiji; Roy, Anjan

    2018-06-01

    A recent theory based on fluctuating hydrodynamics predicts that one-dimensional interacting systems with particle, momentum, and energy conservation exhibit anomalous transport that falls into two main universality classes. The classification is based on behavior of equilibrium dynamical correlations of the conserved quantities. One class is characterized by sound modes with Kardar-Parisi-Zhang scaling, while the second class has diffusive sound modes. The heat mode follows Lévy statistics, with different exponents for the two classes. Here we consider heat current fluctuations in two specific systems, which are expected to be in the above two universality classes, namely, a hard particle gas with Hamiltonian dynamics and a harmonic chain with momentum conserving stochastic dynamics. Numerical simulations show completely different system-size dependence of current cumulants in these two systems. We explain this numerical observation using a phenomenological model of Lévy walkers with inputs from fluctuating hydrodynamics. This consistently explains the system-size dependence of heat current fluctuations. For the latter system, we derive the cumulant-generating function from a more microscopic theory, which also gives the same system-size dependence of cumulants.

  7. Finite-volume cumulant expansion in QCD-colorless plasma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ladrem, M. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Physics Department, Algiers (Algeria); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M.A.A. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Taiz University in Turba, Physics Department, Taiz (Yemen); Alfull, Z.Z. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Cherif, S. [ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ghardaia University, Sciences and Technologies Department, Ghardaia (Algeria)

    2015-09-15

    Due to the finite-size effects, the localization of the phase transition in finite systems and the determination of its order, become an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the finite-volume transition point T{sub 0}(V) of the QCD deconfinement phase transition to a colorless QGP, we have developed a new approach using the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the L{sub mn}-method. The first six cumulants C{sub 1,2,3,4,5,6} with the corresponding under-normalized ratios (skewness Σ, kurtosis κ, pentosis Π{sub ±}, and hexosis H{sub 1,2,3}) and three unnormalized combinations of them, (O = σ{sup 2}κΣ{sup -1},U = σ{sup -2}Σ{sup -1},N = σ{sup 2}κ) are calculated and studied as functions of (T, V). A new approach, unifying in a clear and consistent way the definitions of cumulant ratios, is proposed.Anumerical FSS analysis of the obtained results has allowed us to locate accurately the finite-volume transition point. The extracted transition temperature value T{sub 0}(V) agrees with that expected T{sub 0}{sup N}(V) from the order parameter and the thermal susceptibility χ{sub T} (T, V), according to the standard procedure of localization to within about 2%. In addition to this, a very good correlation factor is obtained proving the validity of our cumulants method. The agreement of our results with those obtained by means of other models is remarkable. (orig.)

  8. An evaluation paradigm for cumulative impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

    1988-09-01

    Cumulative impact analysis is examined from a conceptual decision-making perspective, focusing on its implicit and explicit purposes as suggested within the policy and procedures for environmental impact analysis of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and its implementing regulations. In this article it is also linked to different evaluation and decision-making conventions, contrasting a regulatory context with a comprehensive planning framework. The specific problems that make the application of cumulative impact analysis a virtually intractable evaluation requirement are discussed in connection with the federal regulation of wetlands uses. The relatively familiar US Army Corps of Engineers' (the Corps) permit program, in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) responsibilities in managing its share of the Section 404 regulatory program requirements, is used throughout as the realistic context for highlighting certain pragmatic evaluation aspects of cumulative impact assessment. To understand the purposes of cumulative impact analysis (CIA), a key distinction must be made between the implied comprehensive and multiobjective evaluation purposes of CIA, promoted through the principles and policies contained in NEPA, and the more commonly conducted and limited assessment of cumulative effects (ACE), which focuses largely on the ecological effects of human actions. Based on current evaluation practices within the Corps' and EPA's permit programs, it is shown that the commonly used screening approach to regulating wetlands uses is not compatible with the purposes of CIA, nor is the environmental impact statement (EIS) an appropriate vehicle for evaluating the variety of objectives and trade-offs needed as part of CIA. A heuristic model that incorporates the basic elements of CIA is developed, including the idea of trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental protection goals carried out within the context of environmental

  9. Incidents analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francois, P.

    1996-01-01

    We undertook a study programme at the end of 1991. To start with, we performed some exploratory studies aimed at learning some preliminary lessons on this type of analysis: Assessment of the interest of probabilistic incident analysis; possibility of using PSA scenarios; skills and resources required. At the same time, EPN created a working group whose assignment was to define a new approach for analysis of incidents on NPPs. This working group gave thought to both aspects of Operating Feedback that EPN wished to improve: Analysis of significant incidents; analysis of potential consequences. We took part in the work of this group, and for the second aspects, we proposed a method based on an adaptation of the event-tree method in order to establish a link between existing PSA models and actual incidents. Since PSA provides an exhaustive database of accident scenarios applicable to the two most common types of units in France, they are obviously of interest for this sort of analysis. With this method we performed some incident analyses, and at the same time explores some methods employed abroad, particularly ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor, a method used by the NRC). Early in 1994 EDF began a systematic analysis programme. The first, transient phase will set up methods and an organizational structure. 7 figs

  10. Incidents analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Francois, P

    1997-12-31

    We undertook a study programme at the end of 1991. To start with, we performed some exploratory studies aimed at learning some preliminary lessons on this type of analysis: Assessment of the interest of probabilistic incident analysis; possibility of using PSA scenarios; skills and resources required. At the same time, EPN created a working group whose assignment was to define a new approach for analysis of incidents on NPPs. This working group gave thought to both aspects of Operating Feedback that EPN wished to improve: Analysis of significant incidents; analysis of potential consequences. We took part in the work of this group, and for the second aspects, we proposed a method based on an adaptation of the event-tree method in order to establish a link between existing PSA models and actual incidents. Since PSA provides an exhaustive database of accident scenarios applicable to the two most common types of units in France, they are obviously of interest for this sort of analysis. With this method we performed some incident analyses, and at the same time explores some methods employed abroad, particularly ASP (Accident Sequence Precursor, a method used by the NRC). Early in 1994 EDF began a systematic analysis programme. The first, transient phase will set up methods and an organizational structure. 7 figs.

  11. Substantiated Reports of Child Maltreatment From the Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect 2008: Examining Child and Household Characteristics and Child Functional Impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afifi, Tracie O; Taillieu, Tamara; Cheung, Kristene; Katz, Laurence Y; Tonmyr, Lil; Sareen, Jitender

    2015-07-01

    Identifying child and household characteristics that are associated with specific child maltreatment types and child functional impairment are important for informing prevention and intervention efforts. Our objectives were to examine the distribution of several child and household characteristics among substantiated child maltreatment types in Canada; to determine if a specific child maltreatment type relative to all other types was associated with increased odds of child functional impairment; and to determine which child and household characteristics were associated with child functional impairment. Data were from the Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect (collection 2008) from 112 child welfare sites across Canada (n = 6163 children). Physical abuse, sexual abuse, and emotional maltreatment were highly prevalent among children aged 10 to 15 years. For single types of child maltreatment, the highest prevalence of single-parent homes (50.6%), social assistance (43.0%), running out of money regularly (30.7%), and unsafe housing (30.9%) were reported for substantiated cases of neglect. Being male, older age, living in a single-parent home, household running out of money, moving 2 or more times in the past year, and household overcrowding were associated with increased odds of child functional impairment. More work is warranted to determine if providing particular resources for single-parent families, financial counselling, and facilitating adequate and stable housing for families with child maltreatment histories or at risk for child maltreatment could be effective for improving child functional outcomes.

  12. Substantiated Reports of Child Maltreatment From the Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect 2008: Examining Child and Household Characteristics and Child Functional Impairment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afifi, Tracie O; Taillieu, Tamara; Cheung, Kristene; Katz, Laurence Y; Tonmyr, Lil; Sareen, Jitender

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Identifying child and household characteristics that are associated with specific child maltreatment types and child functional impairment are important for informing prevention and intervention efforts. Our objectives were to examine the distribution of several child and household characteristics among substantiated child maltreatment types in Canada; to determine if a specific child maltreatment type relative to all other types was associated with increased odds of child functional impairment; and to determine which child and household characteristics were associated with child functional impairment. Method: Data were from the Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect (collection 2008) from 112 child welfare sites across Canada (n = 6163 children). Results: Physical abuse, sexual abuse, and emotional maltreatment were highly prevalent among children aged 10 to 15 years. For single types of child maltreatment, the highest prevalence of single-parent homes (50.6%), social assistance (43.0%), running out of money regularly (30.7%), and unsafe housing (30.9%) were reported for substantiated cases of neglect. Being male, older age, living in a single-parent home, household running out of money, moving 2 or more times in the past year, and household overcrowding were associated with increased odds of child functional impairment. Conclusions: More work is warranted to determine if providing particular resources for single-parent families, financial counselling, and facilitating adequate and stable housing for families with child maltreatment histories or at risk for child maltreatment could be effective for improving child functional outcomes. PMID:26175390

  13. Risk factors associated with incidence and persistence of frequent headaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marklund, Susanna; Häggman-Henrikson, Birgitta; Wänman, Anders

    2014-11-01

    Headaches represent a significant public health problem, but the knowledge of factors specifically related to incidence and persistence of headaches is still limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether gender, self-reported bruxism and variations in the dental occlusion contribute to onset and persistence of frequent headaches. The study population comprised 280 dental students, examined annually in a 2-year prospective study with a questionnaire and a clinical examination of the jaw function. In the analysis subjects were dichotomized into cases with frequent (once a week or more) or without frequent headaches (controls). The 2-year cumulative incidence was based on subjects without frequent headaches at baseline. Cases with 2-year persistent headaches reported such symptoms at all three examinations. Self-reported bruxism and factors in the dental occlusion at baseline were used as independent variables in logistic regression analyses. The 2-year cumulative incidence of frequent headaches was 21%. Female gender (OR = 2.6; CI = 1.3-5.4), self-reported bruxism (OR = 2.3; CI = 1.2-4.4) and mandibular instability in intercuspal position (OR = 3.2; CI = 1.4-7.5) were associated with incidence of frequent headaches. Persistent headaches during the observation period were present in 12 individuals (4%) and significantly related to mandibular instability in intercuspal position (OR = 6.1; CI = 1.6-22.6). The results indicate that female gender, self-reported bruxism and mandibular instability in intercuspal position are of importance in the development of frequent headaches. In management of these patients a multidisciplinary approach including dentists may be important and, thus, advocated.

  14. The Role of Cumulative Trauma, Betrayal, and Appraisals in Understanding Trauma Symptomatology

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Christina Gamache; Cromer, Lisa DeMarni; DePrince, Anne P.; Freyd, Jennifer J.

    2011-01-01

    Poor psychological outcomes are common among trauma survivors, yet not all survivors experience adverse sequelae. The current study examined links between cumulative trauma exposure as a function of the level of betrayal (measured by the relational closeness of the survivor and the perpetrator), trauma appraisals, gender, and trauma symptoms. Participants were 273 college students who reported experiencing at least one traumatic event on a trauma checklist. Three cumulative indices were const...

  15. Early Mortality Was Highly and Strongly Associated with Functional Status in Incident Japanese Hemodialysis Patients: A Cohort Study of the Large National Dialysis Registry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masahiko Yazawa

    Full Text Available Although dialysis is typically started in an effort to prolong survival, mortality is reportedly high in the first few months. However, it remains unclear whether this is true in Japanese patients who tend to have a better prognosis than other ethnicities, and if health conditions such as functional status (FS at initiation of dialysis influence prognosis.We investigated the epidemiology of early death and its association with FS using Japanese national registry data in 2007, which included 35,415 patients on incident dialysis and 7,664 with FS data. The main outcome was early death, defined as death within 3 months after initiation of hemodialysis (HD. The main predictor was FS at initiation of HD. Levels of functional disability were categorized as follows: severe (bedridden, moderate (overt difficulties in exerting basic activities of daily living, or mild/none (none or some functional disabilities.Early death remained relatively common, especially among elderly patients (overall: 7.1%; those aged ≥80 years: 15.8%. Severely and even only a moderately impaired FS were significantly associated with early death after starting dialysis (adjusted risk ratios: 3.93 and 2.38, respectively. The incidence of early death in those with impaired FS increased with age (36.5% in those with severely impaired FS and aged ≥80 years.Early death after starting dialysis was relatively common, especially among the elderly, even in Japanese patients. Further, early death was significantly associated with impaired FS at initiation of HD.

  16. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO 2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions. (authors)

  17. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Querbes, Adrien; Vaesen, Krist; Houkes, Wybo

    2014-01-01

    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  18. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien Querbes

    Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  19. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

  20. Childhood Cumulative Risk and Later Allostatic Load

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doan, Stacey N; Dich, Nadya; Evans, Gary W

    2014-01-01

    State, followed for 8 years (between the ages 9 and 17). Poverty- related stress was computed using the cumulative risk approach, assessing stressors across 9 domains, including environmental, psychosocial, and demographic factors. Allostatic load captured a range of physiological responses, including......Objective: The present study investigated the long-term impact of exposure to poverty-related stressors during childhood on allostatic load, an index of physiological dysregulation, and the potential mediating role of substance use. Method: Participants (n = 162) were rural children from New York...... cardiovascular, hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis, sympathetic adrenal medullary system, and metabolic activity. Smoking and alcohol/drug use were tested as mediators of the hypothesized childhood risk-adolescent allostatic load relationship. Results: Cumulative risk exposure at age 9 predicted increases...

  1. Fuzzy set theory for cumulative trauma prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Fonseca, Daniel J.; Merritt, Thomas W.; Moynihan, Gary P.

    2001-01-01

    A widely used fuzzy reasoning algorithm was modified and implemented via an expert system to assess the potential risk of employee repetitive strain injury in the workplace. This fuzzy relational model, known as the Priority First Cover Algorithm (PFC), was adapted to describe the relationship between 12 cumulative trauma disorders (CTDs) of the upper extremity, and 29 identified risk factors. The algorithm, which finds a suboptimal subset from a group of variables based on the criterion of...

  2. Sikap Kerja Duduk Terhadap Cumulative Trauma Disorder

    OpenAIRE

    Rahmawati, Yulita; Sugiharto, -

    2011-01-01

    Permasalahan yang diteliti adalah adakah hubungan antara sikap kerja duduk dengan kejadian Cumulative Trauma Disorder (CTD) pada pekerja bagian pengamplasan di PT. Geromar Jepara. Tujuan yang ingin dicapai adalah untuk mengetahui hubungan antara sikap kerja duduk dengan kejadian CTD pada pekerja bagian pengamplasan. Metode penelitian ini bersifat explanatory dengan menggunakan pendekatan belah lintang. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah pekerja bagian pengamplasan sebanyak 30 orang. Teknik ...

  3. Power Reactor Docket Information. Annual cumulation (citations)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-12-01

    An annual cumulation of the citations to the documentation associated with civilian nuclear power plants is presented. This material is that which is submitted to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of applications for construction and operating licenses. Citations are listed by Docket number in accession number sequence. The Table of Contents is arranged both by Docket number and by nuclear power plant name

  4. Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Olazarán, J.; Trincado, R.; Bermejo-Pareja, F.

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD), with control of vascular factors (VFs). Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES) study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (n...

  5. Cumulative release to the accessible environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanehiro, B.

    1985-01-01

    The Containment and Isolation Working Group considered issues related to the postclosure behavior of repositories in crystalline rock. This working group was further divided into subgroups to consider the progress since the 1978 GAIN Symposium and identify research needs in the individual areas of regional ground-water flow, ground-water travel time, fractional release, and cumulative release. The analysis and findings of the Fractional Release Subgroup are presented

  6. Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Rebora

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome. Methods We develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard. Results The proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care. Conclusions A valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived.

  7. EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

  8. Higher order cumulants in colorless partonic plasma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cherif, S. [Sciences and Technologies Department, University of Ghardaia, Ghardaia, Algiers (Algeria); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M. A. A. [Department of Physics, College of Science, Taibah University Al-Madinah Al-Mounawwarah KSA (Saudi Arabia); Department of Physics, Taiz University in Turba, Taiz (Yemen); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria); Ladrem, M., E-mail: mladrem@yahoo.fr [Department of Physics, College of Science, Taibah University Al-Madinah Al-Mounawwarah KSA (Saudi Arabia); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria)

    2016-06-10

    Any physical system considered to study the QCD deconfinement phase transition certainly has a finite volume, so the finite size effects are inevitably present. This renders the location of the phase transition and the determination of its order as an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the colorless QCD deconfinement transition point in finite volume T{sub 0}(V), a new approach based on the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the ℒ{sub m,n}-Method is used. We have shown that both cumulants of higher order and their ratios, associated to the thermodynamical fluctuations of the order parameter, in QCD deconfinement phase transition behave in a particular enough way revealing pronounced oscillations in the transition region. The sign structure and the oscillatory behavior of these in the vicinity of the deconfinement phase transition point might be a sensitive probe and may allow one to elucidate their relation to the QCD phase transition point. In the context of our model, we have shown that the finite volume transition point is always associated to the appearance of a particular point in whole higher order cumulants under consideration.

  9. Cumulative irritation potential of topical retinoid formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leyden, James J; Grossman, Rachel; Nighland, Marge

    2008-08-01

    Localized irritation can limit treatment success with topical retinoids such as tretinoin and adapalene. The factors that influence irritant reactions have been shown to include individual skin sensitivity, the particular retinoid and concentration used, and the vehicle formulation. To compare the cutaneous tolerability of tretinoin 0.04% microsphere gel (TMG) with that of adapalene 0.3% gel and a standard tretinoin 0.025% cream. The results of 2 randomized, investigator-blinded studies of 2 to 3 weeks' duration, which utilized a split-face method to compare cumulative irritation scores induced by topical retinoids in subjects with healthy skin, were combined. Study 1 compared TMG 0.04% with adapalene 0.3% gel over 2 weeks, while study 2 compared TMG 0.04% with tretinoin 0.025% cream over 3 weeks. In study 1, TMG 0.04% was associated with significantly lower cumulative scores for erythema, dryness, and burning/stinging than adapalene 0.3% gel. However, in study 2, there were no significant differences in cumulative irritation scores between TMG 0.04% and tretinoin 0.025% cream. Measurements of erythema by a chromameter showed no significant differences between the test formulations in either study. Cutaneous tolerance of TMG 0.04% on the face was superior to that of adapalene 0.3% gel and similar to that of a standard tretinoin cream containing a lower concentration of the drug (0.025%).

  10. Incidence of Incisional Hernia after Cesarean Delivery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabakke, Anna J M; Krebs, Lone; Ladelund, Steen

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence of incisional hernias requiring surgical repair after cesarean delivery over a 10-year period. METHODS: This population- and register-based cohort study identified all women in Denmark with no history of previous abdominal surgery who had a cesarean delivery...... the inclusion period. The cumulated incidence of a hernia repair within 10 years after a cesarean delivery was 0.197% (95% CI 0.164-0.234%). The risk of a hernia repair was higher during the first 3 years after a cesarean delivery, with an incidence after 3 years of 0.157% (95% CI 0.127-0.187%). CONCLUSIONS...

  11. Monte Carlo simulation of electron depth distribution and backscattering for carbon films deposited on aluminium as a function of incidence angle and primary energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dapor, Maurizio

    2005-01-01

    Carbon films are deposited on various substrates (polymers, polyester fabrics, polyester yarns, metal alloys) both for experimental and technological motivations (medical devices, biocompatible coatings, food package and so on). Computational studies of the penetration of electron beams in supported thin film of carbon are very useful in order to compare the simulated results with analytical techniques data (obtained by scanning electron microscopy and/or Auger electron spectroscopy) and investigate the film characteristics. In the present paper, the few keV electron depth distribution and backscattering coefficient for the special case of film of carbon deposited on aluminium are investigated, by a Monte Carlo simulation, as a function of the incidence angle and primary electron energy. The simulated results can be used as a way to evaluate the carbon film thickness by a set of measurements of the backscattering coefficient.

  12. Si Nanoribbons on Ag(110) Studied by Grazing-Incidence X-Ray Diffraction, Scanning Tunneling Microscopy, and Density-Functional Theory: Evidence of a Pentamer Chain Structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prévot, Geoffroy; Hogan, Conor; Leoni, Thomas; Bernard, Romain; Moyen, Eric; Masson, Laurence

    2016-12-30

    We report a combined grazing incidence x-ray diffraction (GIXD), scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), and density-functional theory (DFT) study which clearly elucidates the atomic structure of the Si nanoribbons grown on the missing-row reconstructed Ag(110) surface. Our study allows us to discriminate between the theoretical models published in the literature, including the most stable atomic configurations and those based on a missing-row reconstructed Ag(110) surface. GIXD measurements unambiguously validate the pentamer model grown on the reconstructed surface, obtained from DFT. This pentamer atomistic model accurately matches the high-resolution STM images of the Si nanoribbons adsorbed on Ag(110). Our study closes the long-debated atomic structure of the Si nanoribbons grown on Ag(110) and definitively excludes a honeycomb structure similar to that of freestanding silicene.

  13. Do Holocaust survivors show increased vulnerability or resilience to post-Holocaust cumulative adversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrira, Amit; Palgi, Yuval; Ben-Ezra, Menachem; Shmotkin, Dov

    2010-06-01

    Prior trauma can hinder coping with additional adversity or inoculate against the effect of recurrent adversity. The present study further addressed this issue by examining whether a subsample of Holocaust survivors and comparison groups, drawn from the Israeli component of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe, were differentially affected by post-Holocaust cumulative adversity. Post-Holocaust cumulative adversity had a stronger effect on the lifetime depression of Holocaust survivors than on that of comparisons. However, comparisons were more negatively affected by post-Holocaust cumulative adversity when examining markers of physical and cognitive functioning. Our findings suggest that previous trauma can both sensitize and immunize, as Holocaust survivors show general resilience intertwined with specific vulnerability when confronted with additional cumulative adversity.

  14. Practical management of cumulative anthropogenic impacts with working marine examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Andrew J; Kyhn, Line A

    2015-04-01

    Human pressure on the environment is expanding and intensifying, especially in coastal and offshore areas. Major contributors to this are the current push for offshore renewable energy sources, which are thought of as environmentally friendly sources of power, as well as the continued demand for petroleum. Human disturbances, including the noise almost ubiquitously associated with human activity, are likely to increase the incidence, magnitude, and duration of adverse effects on marine life, including stress responses. Stress responses have the potential to induce fitness consequences for individuals, which add to more obvious directed takes (e.g., hunting or fishing) to increase the overall population-level impact. To meet the requirements of marine spatial planning and ecosystem-based management, many efforts are ongoing to quantify the cumulative impacts of all human actions on marine species or populations. Meanwhile, regulators face the challenge of managing these accumulating and interacting impacts with limited scientific guidance. We believe there is scientific support for capping the level of impact for (at a minimum) populations in decline or with unknown statuses. This cap on impact can be facilitated through implementation of regular application cycles for project authorization or improved programmatic and aggregated impact assessments that simultaneously consider multiple projects. Cross-company collaborations and a better incorporation of uncertainty into decision making could also help limit, if not reduce, cumulative impacts of multiple human activities. These simple management steps may also form the basis of a rudimentary form of marine spatial planning and could be used in support of future ecosystem-based management efforts. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  15. A bivariate optimal replacement policy with cumulative repair cost ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Min-Tsai Lai

    Shock model; cumulative damage model; cumulative repair cost limit; preventive maintenance model. 1. Introduction ... with two types of shocks: one type is failure shock, and the other type is damage ...... Theory, methods and applications.

  16. On interference of cumulative proton production mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, M.A.; Vechernin, V.V.

    1993-01-01

    The dynamical picture of the cumulative proton production in hA-collisions by means of diagram analysis with NN interaction described by a non-relativistic NN potential is considered. The contributions of the various mechanisms (spectator, direct and rescattering) for backward hemisphere proton production within the framework of this common approach is calculated. The emphasis is on the comparison of the relative contributions of these mechanisms for various angles, taking into account the interference of these contributions. Comparison with experimental data is also presented. (author)

  17. Preserved cumulative semantic interference despite amnesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Michael Oppenheim

    2015-05-01

    As predicted by Oppenheim et al’s (2010 implicit incremental learning account, WRP’s BCN RTs demonstrated strong (and significant repetition priming and semantic blocking effects (Figure 1. Similar to typical results from neurally intact undergraduates, WRP took longer to name pictures presented in semantically homogeneous blocks than in heterogeneous blocks, an effect that increased with each cycle. This result challenges accounts that ascribe cumulative semantic interference in this task to explicit memory mechanisms, instead suggesting that the effect has the sort of implicit learning bases that are typically spared in hippocampal amnesia.

  18. Is cumulated pyrethroid exposure associated with prediabetes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Martin Rune; Jørs, Erik; Lander, Flemming

    2014-01-01

    was to investigate an association between exposure to pyrethroids and abnormal glucose regulation (prediabetes or diabetes). A cross-sectional study was performed among 116 pesticide sprayers from public vector control programs in Bolivia and 92 nonexposed controls. Pesticide exposure (duration, intensity...... pyrethroids, a significant positive trend was observed between cumulative pesticide exposure (total number of hours sprayed) and adjusted OR of abnormal glucose regulation, with OR 14.7 [0.9-235] in the third exposure quintile. The study found a severely increased prevalence of prediabetes among Bolivian...

  19. Protocol for evaluating the effects of a therapeutic foot exercise program on injury incidence, foot functionality and biomechanics in long-distance runners: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matias, Alessandra B; Taddei, Ulisses T; Duarte, Marcos; Sacco, Isabel C N

    2016-04-14

    Overall performance, particularly in a very popular sports activity such as running, is typically influenced by the status of the musculoskeletal system and the level of training and conditioning of the biological structures. Any change in the musculoskeletal system's biomechanics, especially in the feet and ankles, will strongly influence the biomechanics of runners, possibly predisposing them to injuries. A thorough understanding of the effects of a therapeutic approach focused on feet biomechanics, on strength and functionality of lower limb muscles will contribute to the adoption of more effective therapeutic and preventive strategies for runners. A randomized, prospective controlled and parallel trial with blind assessment is designed to study the effects of a "ground-up" therapeutic approach focused on the foot-ankle complex as it relates to the incidence of running-related injuries in the lower limbs. One hundred and eleven (111) healthy long-distance runners will be randomly assigned to either a control (CG) or intervention (IG) group. IG runners will participate in a therapeutic exercise protocol for the foot-ankle for 8 weeks, with 1 directly supervised session and 3 remotely supervised sessions per week. After the 8-week period, IG runners will keep exercising for the remaining 10 months of the study, supervised only by web-enabled software three times a week. At baseline, 2 months, 4 months and 12 months, all runners will be assessed for running-related injuries (primary outcome), time for the occurrence of the first injury, foot health and functionality, muscle trophism, intrinsic foot muscle strength, dynamic foot arch strain and lower-limb biomechanics during walking and running (secondary outcomes). This is the first randomized clinical trial protocol to assess the effect of an exercise protocol that was designed specifically for the foot-and-ankle complex on running-related injuries to the lower limbs of long-distance runners. We intend to show

  20. Chapter 19. Cumulative watershed effects and watershed analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie M. Reid

    1998-01-01

    Cumulative watershed effects are environmental changes that are affected by more than.one land-use activity and that are influenced by.processes involving the generation or transport.of water. Almost all environmental changes are.cumulative effects, and almost all land-use.activities contribute to cumulative effects

  1. Original and cumulative prospect theory: a discussion of empirical differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Fennema, H.

    1997-01-01

    This note discusses differences between prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory. It shows that cumulative prospect theory is not merely a formal correction of some theoretical problems in prospect theory, but it also gives different predictions. Experiments are described that favor cumulative

  2. Using Fuzzy Probability Weights in Cumulative Prospect Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Užga-Rebrovs Oļegs

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available During the past years, a rapid growth has been seen in the descriptive approaches to decision choice. As opposed to normative expected utility theory, these approaches are based on the subjective perception of probabilities by the individuals, which takes place in real situations of risky choice. The modelling of this kind of perceptions is made on the basis of probability weighting functions. In cumulative prospect theory, which is the focus of this paper, decision prospect outcome weights are calculated using the obtained probability weights. If the value functions are constructed in the sets of positive and negative outcomes, then, based on the outcome value evaluations and outcome decision weights, generalised evaluations of prospect value are calculated, which are the basis for choosing an optimal prospect.

  3. Cumulative Environmental Management Association : Wood Buffalo Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friesen, B.

    2001-01-01

    The recently announced oil sands development of the Wood Buffalo Region in Alberta was the focus of this power point presentation. Both mining and in situ development is expected to total $26 billion and 2.6 million barrels per day of bitumen production. This paper described the economic, social and environmental challenges facing the resource development of this region. In addition to the proposed oil sands projects, this region will accommodate the needs of conventional oil and gas production, forestry, building of pipelines and power lines, municipal development, recreation, tourism, mining exploration and open cast mining. The Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) was inaugurated as a non-profit association in April 2000, and includes 41 members from all sectors. Its major role is to ensure a sustainable ecosystem and to avoid any cumulative impacts on wildlife. Other work underway includes the study of soil and plant species diversity, and the effects of air emissions on human health, wildlife and vegetation. The bioaccumulation of heavy metals and their impacts on surface water and fish is also under consideration to ensure the quality and quantity of surface water and ground water. 3 figs

  4. Preliminary results on σZ and τint fluctuations as a function of incident energy in dissipative heavy ion collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berceanu, I.; Andronic, A.; Duma, M.

    1998-01-01

    Non-statistical fluctuations in the excitation functions (EF) of dissipative heavy ion collisions (DHIC) was rather unexpected due to the fact that cross sections are always obtained on a 'coarse cell' of TKEL and θ cm . The contribution of a large number of microchannels, N, is expected to attenuate the amplitude of such fluctuations as σ(E) has a χ 2 distribution with 2N degrees of freedom. In the framework of the Partially Overlapping Molecular Levels the observation of the fluctuations of the cross section as a function of the incident energy is explained by the fact that the levels of the dinuclear system formed in the first stage of a dissipative process are excited in a region of low density situated in the vicinity of the yrast line. The time evolution of dinuclear (DNS) system with different mass asymmetries with the total mass of the nuclear system 19 F + 27 Al system configuration and its time evolution, the excitation function for this system has been measured between 111.4 MeV and 136.9 MeV with a 250 keV energy step. Fluctuations with amplitude larger than the statistical errors were observed. Large Z and angular cross correlation coefficients show their nonstatistical nature. An average energy correlation width of 170±65 keV, to which corresponds a DNS lifetime τ int (3.9 ± 1.1)·10 -21 s, was obtained by the energy autocorrelation function (EAF). The experimental EAF secondary structure period agrees with that predicted by Kun model when the deformation of the outgoing fragments is taken into account. To get more insight in the reaction mechanism, the dependence of the charge distribution variance for two total kinetic energy loss windows, W1 = 20 ± 2.5 and W2 = 30 ± 2.5 MeV, was obtained as a function of E lab . The second moments of the experimental charge distributions have been calculated and the obtained values were represented for W1 and W2. Fluctuations with quite large amplitude are present. In a transport approach of deep inelastic

  5. Lung function and incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease after improved cooking fuels and kitchen ventilation: a 9-year prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yumin Zhou

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Biomass smoke is associated with the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, but few studies have elaborated approaches to reduce the risk of COPD from biomass burning. The purpose of this study was to determine whether improved cooking fuels and ventilation have effects on pulmonary function and the incidence of COPD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A 9-y prospective cohort study was conducted among 996 eligible participants aged at least 40 y from November 1, 2002, through November 30, 2011, in 12 villages in southern China. Interventions were implemented starting in 2002 to improve kitchen ventilation (by providing support and instruction for improving biomass stoves or installing exhaust fans and to promote the use of clean fuels (i.e., biogas instead of biomass for cooking (by providing support and instruction for installing household biogas digesters; questionnaire interviews and spirometry tests were performed in 2005, 2008, and 2011. That the interventions improved air quality was confirmed via measurements of indoor air pollutants (i.e., SO₂, CO, CO₂, NO₂, and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm or less in a randomly selected subset of the participants' homes. Annual declines in lung function and COPD incidence were compared between those who took up one, both, or neither of the interventions. Use of clean fuels and improved ventilation were associated with a reduced decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁: decline in FEV₁ was reduced by 12 ml/y (95% CI, 4 to 20 ml/y and 13 ml/y (95% CI, 4 to 23 ml/y in those who used clean fuels and improved ventilation, respectively, compared to those who took up neither intervention, after adjustment for confounders. The combined improvements of use of clean fuels and improved ventilation had the greatest favorable effects on the decline in FEV₁, with a slowing of 16 ml/y (95% CI, 9 to 23 ml/y. The longer the duration of improved fuel use and

  6. Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Baguelin

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-44 years. The highest cumulative incidence was in 5-14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI: 52%, 68% followed by 1-4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%, rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period.

  7. Evolution model with a cumulative feedback coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zabrocki, Knud; Schulz, Michael

    2002-05-01

    The paper is concerned with a toy model that generalizes the standard Lotka-Volterra equation for a certain population by introducing a competition between instantaneous and accumulative, history-dependent nonlinear feedback the origin of which could be a contribution from any kind of mismanagement in the past. The results depend on the sign of that additional cumulative loss or gain term of strength λ. In case of a positive coupling the system offers a maximum gain achieved after a finite time but the population will die out in the long time limit. In this case the instantaneous loss term of strength u is irrelevant and the model exhibits an exact solution. In the opposite case λ<0 the time evolution of the system is terminated in a crash after ts provided u=0. This singularity after a finite time can be avoided if u≠0. The approach may well be of relevance for the qualitative understanding of more realistic descriptions.

  8. Psychometric properties of the Cumulated Ambulation Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferriero, Giorgio; Kristensen, Morten T; Invernizzi, Marco

    2018-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: In the geriatric population, independent mobility is a key factor in determining readiness for discharge following acute hospitalization. The Cumulated Ambulation Score (CAS) is a potentially valuable score that allows day-to-day measurements of basic mobility. The CAS was developed...... and validated in older patients with hip fracture as an early postoperative predictor of short-term outcome, but it is also used to assess geriatric in-patients with acute medical illness. Despite the fast- accumulating literature on the CAS, to date no systematic review synthesizing its psychometric properties....... Of 49 studies identified, 17 examined the psychometric properties of the CAS. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Most papers dealt with patients after hip fracture surgery, and only 4 studies assessed the CAS psychometric characteristics also in geriatric in-patients with acute medical illness. Two versions of CAS...

  9. Cumulative protons in 12C fragmentation at intermediate energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abramov, B.M.; Alekseev, P.N.; Borodin, Y.A.; Bulychjov, S.A.; Dukhovskoi, I.A.; Khanov, A.I.; Krutenkova, A.P.; Kulikov, V.V.; Martemianov, M.A.; Matsuk, M.A.; Turdakina, E.N.

    2014-01-01

    In the FRAGM experiment at heavy ion accelerator complex TWAC-ITEP, the proton yields at an angle 3.5 degrees have been measured in fragmentation of carbon ions at T 0 equals 0.3, 0.6, 0.95 and 2.0 GeV/nucleon on beryllium target. The data are presented as invariant proton yields on cumulative variable x in the range 0.9 < x < 2.4. Proton spectra cover six orders of invariant cross section magnitude. They have been analyzed in the framework of quark cluster fragmentation model. Fragmentation functions of quark- gluon string model are used. The probabilities of the existence of multi-quark clusters in carbon nuclei are estimated to be 8 - 12% for six-quark clusters and 0.2 - 0.6% for nine- quark clusters. (authors)

  10. Cumulative radiation dose of multiple trauma patients during their hospitalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zhikang; Sun Jianzhong; Zhao Zudan

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To study the cumulative radiation dose of multiple trauma patients during their hospitalization and to analyze the dose influence factors. Methods: The DLP for CT and DR were retrospectively collected from the patients during June, 2009 and April, 2011 at a university affiliated hospital. The cumulative radiation doses were calculated by summing typical effective doses of the anatomic regions scanned. Results: The cumulative radiation doses of 113 patients were collected. The maximum,minimum and the mean values of cumulative effective doses were 153.3, 16.48 mSv and (52.3 ± 26.6) mSv. Conclusions: Multiple trauma patients have high cumulative radiation exposure. Therefore, the management of cumulative radiation doses should be enhanced. To establish the individualized radiation exposure archives will be helpful for the clinicians and technicians to make decision whether to image again and how to select the imaging parameters. (authors)

  11. Effect of cumulative strain on texture characteristics during wire drawing of eutectoid steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, F.; Ma, C.; Jiang, J.Q.; Feng, H.P.; Zhai, S.Y.

    2008-01-01

    The texture characteristics associated with plastic deformation of Fe-C steels near-eutectoid composition during a continuous cold drawing process were thoroughly investigated by orientation distribution function analysis based on X-ray diffraction. The effect of cumulative drawing strains on the fiber texture in drawn hypereutectoid and hypoeutectoid steel wires was discussed

  12. 7 CFR 42.132 - Determining cumulative sum values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Determining cumulative sum values. 42.132 Section 42... Determining cumulative sum values. (a) The parameters for the on-line cumulative sum sampling plans for AQL's... 3 1 2.5 3 1 2 1 (b) At the beginning of the basic inspection period, the CuSum value is set equal to...

  13. Improving cumulative effects assessment in Alberta: Regional strategic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Dallas; Lalonde, Kim; McEachern, Menzie; Kenney, John; Mendoza, Gustavo; Buffin, Andrew; Rich, Kate

    2011-01-01

    The Government of Alberta, Canada is developing a regulatory framework to better manage cumulative environmental effects from development in the province. A key component of this effort is regional planning, which will lay the primary foundation for cumulative effects management into the future. Alberta Environment has considered the information needs of regional planning and has concluded that Regional Strategic Assessment may offer significant advantages if integrated into the planning process, including the overall improvement of cumulative environmental effects assessment in the province.

  14. Cumulative consumption of branched-chain amino acids and incidence of type 2 diabetes

    OpenAIRE

    Zheng, Yan; Li, Yanping; Qi, Qibin; Hruby, Adela; Manson, JoAnn E; Willett, Walter C; Wolpin, Brian M; Hu, Frank B; Qi, Lu

    2016-01-01

    Background: Plasma branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs, including leucine, isoleucine and valine) were recently related to risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Dietary intake is the only source of BCAAs; however, little is known about whether habitual dietary intake of BCAAs affects risk of T2D.

  15. Children neglected: Where cumulative risk theory fails.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Mandy; Legano, Lori; Homel, Peter; Walker-Descartes, Ingrid; Rojas, Mary; Laraque, Danielle

    2015-07-01

    Neglected children, by far the majority of children maltreated, experience an environment most deficient in cognitive stimulation and language exchange. When physical abuse co-occurs with neglect, there is more stimulation through negative parent-child interaction, which may lead to better cognitive outcomes, contrary to Cumulative Risk Theory. The purpose of the current study was to assess whether children only neglected perform worse on cognitive tasks than children neglected and physically abused. Utilizing LONGSCAN archived data, 271 children only neglected and 101 children neglected and physically abused in the first four years of life were compared. The two groups were assessed at age 6 on the WPPSI-R vocabulary and block design subtests, correlates of cognitive intelligence. Regression analyses were performed, controlling for additional predictors of poor cognitive outcome, including socioeconomic variables and caregiver depression. Children only neglected scored significantly worse than children neglected and abused on the WPPSI-R vocabulary subtest (p=0.03). The groups did not differ on the block design subtest (p=0.4). This study shows that for neglected children, additional abuse may not additively accumulate risk when considering intelligence outcomes. Children experiencing only neglect may need to be referred for services that address cognitive development, with emphasis on the linguistic environment, in order to best support the developmental challenges of neglected children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Standardization of the cumulative absolute velocity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Hara, T.F.; Jacobson, J.P.

    1991-12-01

    EPRI NP-5930, ''A Criterion for Determining Exceedance of the Operating Basis Earthquake,'' was published in July 1988. As defined in that report, the Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) is exceeded when both a response spectrum parameter and a second damage parameter, referred to as the Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV), are exceeded. In the review process of the above report, it was noted that the calculation of CAV could be confounded by time history records of long duration containing low (nondamaging) acceleration. Therefore, it is necessary to standardize the method of calculating CAV to account for record length. This standardized methodology allows consistent comparisons between future CAV calculations and the adjusted CAV threshold value based upon applying the standardized methodology to the data set presented in EPRI NP-5930. The recommended method to standardize the CAV calculation is to window its calculation on a second-by-second basis for a given time history. If the absolute acceleration exceeds 0.025g at any time during each one second interval, the earthquake records used in EPRI NP-5930 have been reanalyzed and the adjusted threshold of damage for CAV was found to be 0.16g-set

  17. Analysis of Memory Codes and Cumulative Rehearsal in Observational Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandura, Albert; And Others

    1974-01-01

    The present study examined the influence of memory codes varying in meaningfulness and retrievability and cumulative rehearsal on retention of observationally learned responses over increasing temporal intervals. (Editor)

  18. Temporal trends in hospitalisation for stroke recurrence following incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Langhorne Peter

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are few studies that have investigated temporal trends in risk of recurrent stroke. The aim of this study was to examine temporal trends in hospitalisation for stroke recurrence following incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland during 1986 to 2001. Methods Unadjusted survival analysis of time to first event, hospitalisation for recurrent stroke or death, was undertaken using the cumulative incidence method which takes into account competing risks. Regression on cumulative incidence functions was used to model the temporal trends of first recurrent stroke with adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status and comorbidity. Complete five year follow-up was obtained for all patients. Restricted cubic splines were used to determine the best fitting relationship between the survival events and study year. Results There were 128,511 incident hospitalisations for stroke in Scotland between 1986 and 2001, 57,351 (45% in men. A total of 13,835 (10.8% patients had a recurrent hospitalisation for stroke within five years of their incident hospitalisation. Another 74,220 (57.8% patients died within five years of their incident hospitalisation without first having a recurrent hospitalisation for stroke. Comparing incident stroke hospitalisations in 2001 with 1986, the adjusted risk of recurrent stroke hospitalisation decreased by 27%, HR = 0.73 95% CI (0.67 to 0.78, and the adjusted risk of death being the first event decreased by 28%, HR = 0.72 (0.70 to 0.75. Conclusions Over the 15-year period approximately 1 in 10 patients with an incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland went on to have a hospitalisation for recurrent stroke within five years. Approximately 6 in 10 patients died within five years without first having a recurrent stroke hospitalisation. Using hospitalisation and death data from an entire country over a 20-year period we have been able to demonstrate not only an improvement in survival following an

  19. Quantitative cumulative biodistribution of antibodies in mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Victor; Palma, Enzo; Tesar, Devin B; Mundo, Eduardo E; Bumbaca, Daniela; Torres, Elizabeth K; Reyes, Noe A; Shen, Ben Q; Fielder, Paul J; Prabhu, Saileta; Khawli, Leslie A; Boswell, C Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) plays an important and well-known role in antibody recycling in endothelial and hematopoietic cells and thus it influences the systemic pharmacokinetics (PK) of immunoglobulin G (IgG). However, considerably less is known about FcRn’s role in the metabolism of IgG within individual tissues after intravenous administration. To elucidate the organ distribution and gain insight into the metabolism of humanized IgG1 antibodies with different binding affinities FcRn, comparative biodistribution studies in normal CD-1 mice were conducted. Here, we generated variants of herpes simplex virus glycoprotein D-specific antibody (humanized anti-gD) with increased and decreased FcRn binding affinity by genetic engineering without affecting antigen specificity. These antibodies were expressed in Chinese hamster ovary cell lines, purified and paired radiolabeled with iodine-125 and indium-111. Equal amounts of I-125-labeled and In-111-labeled antibodies were mixed and intravenously administered into mice at 5 mg/kg. This approach allowed us to measure both the real-time IgG uptake (I-125) and cumulative uptake of IgG and catabolites (In-111) in individual tissues up to 1 week post-injection. The PK and distribution of the wild-type IgG and the variant with enhanced binding for FcRn were largely similar to each other, but vastly different for the rapidly cleared low-FcRn-binding variant. Uptake in individual tissues varied across time, FcRn binding affinity, and radiolabeling method. The liver and spleen emerged as the most concentrated sites of IgG catabolism in the absence of FcRn protection. These data provide an increased understanding of FcRn’s role in antibody PK and catabolism at the tissue level. PMID:24572100

  20. A Framework for Treating Cumulative Trauma with Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naff, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    Cumulative trauma is relatively undocumented in art therapy practice, although there is growing evidence that art therapy provides distinct benefits for resolving various traumas. This qualitative study proposes an art therapy treatment framework for cumulative trauma derived from semi-structured interviews with three art therapists and artistic…

  1. Cumulative effects of forest management activities: how might they occur?

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. M. Rice; R. B. Thomas

    1985-01-01

    Concerns are often voiced about possible environmental damage as the result of the cumulative sedimentation effects of logging and forest road construction. In response to these concerns, National Forests are developing procedures to reduce the possibility that their activities may lead to unacceptable cumulative effects

  2. Cumulative effect in multiple production processes on nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golubyatnikova, E.S.; Shmonin, V.L.; Kalinkin, B.N.

    1989-01-01

    It is shown that the cumulative effect is a natural result of the process of hadron multiple production in nuclear reactions. Interpretation is made of the universality of slopes of inclusive spectra and other characteristics of cumulative hadrons. The character of information from such reactions is discussed, which could be helpful in studying the mechanism of multiparticle production. 27 refs.; 4 figs

  3. Cumulative particle production in the quark recombination model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gavrilov, V.B.; Leksin, G.A.

    1987-01-01

    Production of cumulative particles in hadron-nuclear inteactions at high energies is considered within the framework of recombination quark model. Predictions for inclusive cross sections of production of cumulative particles and different resonances containing quarks in s state are made

  4. Stress analysis of feeder bends using neutrons: new results and cumulative impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banks, D.; Donaberger, R. [Canadian Neutron Beam Centre, Chalk River, ON (Canada); Leitch, B. [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, Chalk River, ON (Canada); Rogge, R.B. [Canadian Neutron Beam Centre, Chalk River, ON (Canada)

    2014-07-01

    Neutron diffraction has played a vital role in stress analysis of bends in carbon steel pipes, known as feeder pipes, in CANDU reactors. Due to incidents of cracking of feeders, extensive R&D programs to manage feeder cracking have been implemented over about ten years. We review the cumulative impacts of this research from the view point of the stress analysis using neutrons, and present new results by examining a feeder bend with a partial crack both experimentally using neutron diffraction and theoretically using a finite element model. (author)

  5. Production of cumulative protons in the pion-carbon interactions at 5 GeV/c

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdinov, O.B.; Bajramov, A.A.; Budagov, Yu.A.; Valkar, Sh.; Dvornik, A.M.; Lomakin, Yu.F.; Majlov, A.A.; Flyagin, V.B.; Kharzheev, Yu.N.

    1983-01-01

    For the π -12 C interactions at the incident momentum of 5 GeV/c the relation between the divergence angle and the sum of kinetic energies of two protons, one of which is emitted into the backward hemisphere, and the other into the forward hemisphere, in the laboratory system is investigated. The obtained results can be considered as an evidence to that the absorption of slow pions is a possible mechanism responsible for the cumulative production of protons in the momentum range of 0.2-0.6 GeV/c

  6. The influence of psycho-emotional stress in children of primary school age on the incidence of recurrent upper respiratory tract infections and the functional state of the myocardium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.S. Ovcharenko

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background. Scientific and technical progress, intensification of educational process and information overload have a negative effect on unformed central nervous system of primary schoolchildren, causing stress, which affects the increase in the incidence of recurrent upper respiratory tract infections (URTI and the functional state of the myocardium. In view of this, we analyzed a functional state of myocardium in children with recurrent URTI. The critical duration of the work of primary school child with electronic means of communication, which affects the quality of nighttime sleep and the nature of awakening in the morning, was established. We have studied the relationship of the above mentioned with the incidence of URTI, the level of school anxiety and functional reserve of the myocardium. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the functional reserve of the myocardium in children of primary school age, depending on the incidence of URTI and the level of psycho-emotional activity. Materials and me­thods. 239 children aged 6 to 9 years were examined. The analysis of the functional reserve of the myocardium was carried out in pupils with different incidence of the URTI, depending on the age. The influence of electronic communications on the quality of nighttime sleep and morning awakening was stu­died, and the level of school anxiety was evaluated. During the study, children were divided into two groups. Group 1 — children with recurrent acute respiratory diseases (n = 143. Group 2 — children who occasionally have URTI (n = 96. Results. Out of 239 children with recurrent acute respiratory infections, we have identified 173 children with reduced functional reserve of the myocardium (72.4 %. Among children with recurrent URTI, the incidence of reduced functional reserve of the myocardium was 76.2 %, and in occasionally ill children — 66.7 %. Children with recurrent URTI use electronic means of communication more often than

  7. High cumulants of conserved charges and their statistical uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li-Zhu, Chen; Ye-Yin, Zhao; Xue, Pan; Zhi-Ming, Li; Yuan-Fang, Wu

    2017-10-01

    We study the influence of measured high cumulants of conserved charges on their associated statistical uncertainties in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. With a given number of events, the measured cumulants randomly fluctuate with an approximately normal distribution, while the estimated statistical uncertainties are found to be correlated with corresponding values of the obtained cumulants. Generally, with a given number of events, the larger the cumulants we measure, the larger the statistical uncertainties that are estimated. The error-weighted averaged cumulants are dependent on statistics. Despite this effect, however, it is found that the three sigma rule of thumb is still applicable when the statistics are above one million. Supported by NSFC (11405088, 11521064, 11647093), Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (2014CB845402) and Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST) (2016YFE0104800)

  8. Non-Gaussian wave packet dynamics in anharmonic potential: Cumulant expansion treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toutounji, Mohamad

    2015-01-01

    This manuscript utilizes cumulant expansion as an alternative algebraic approach to evaluating integrals and solving a system of nonlinear differential equations for probing anharmonic dynamics in condensed phase systems using Morse oscillator. These integrals and differential equations become harder to solve as the anharmonicity of the system goes beyond that of Morse oscillator description. This algebraic approach becomes critically important in case of Morse oscillator as it tends to exhibit divergent dynamics and numerical uncertainties at low temperatures. The autocorrelation function is calculated algebraically and compared to the exact one for they match perfectly. It is also compared to the approximate autocorrelation function using the differential equations technique reported in Toutounji (2014) for weak and strong electron–phonon coupling cases. It is found that the present cumulant method is more efficient, and easier to use, than the exact expression. Deviation between the approximate autocorrelation function and the exact autocorrelation function starts to arise as the electron–phonon coupling strength increases. The autocorrelation function obtained using cumulants identically matches the exact autocorrelation function, thereby surpassing the approach presented in Toutounji (2014). The advantage of the present methodology is its applicability to various types of electron–phonon coupling cases. Additionally, the herein approach only uses algebraic techniques, thereby avoiding both the divergence integral and solving a set of linear first- and second-order partial differential equations as was done in previous work. Model calculations are presented to demonstrate the accuracy of the herein work

  9. Stable long-term pulmonary function after fludarabine, antithymocyte globulin and i.v. BU for reduced-intensity conditioning allogeneic SCT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirou, S; Malard, F; Chambellan, A; Chevallier, P; Germaud, P; Guillaume, T; Delaunay, J; Moreau, P; Delasalle, B; Lemarchand, P; Mohty, M

    2014-05-01

    Lung function decline is a well-recognized complication following allogeneic SCT (allo-SCT). Reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) and in vivo T-cell depletion by administration of antithymocyte globulin (ATG) may have a protective role in the occurrence of late pulmonary complications. This retrospective study reported the evolution of lung function parameters within the first 2 years after allo-SCT in a population receiving the same RIC regimen that included fludarabine and i.v. BU in combination with low-dose ATG. The median follow-up was 35.2 months. With a median age of 59 years at the time of transplant, at 2 years, the cumulative incidences of non-relapse mortality was as low as 9.7%. The cumulative incidence of relapse was 33%. At 2 years, the cumulative incidences of extensive chronic GVHD (cGVHD) and of pulmonary cGVHD were 23.1% and 1.9%, respectively. The cumulative incidences of airflow obstruction and restrictive pattern were 3.8% and 9.6%, respectively. Moreover, forced expiratory volume (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV1/FVC ratio remained stable from baseline up to 2 years post transplantation (P=0.26, P=0.27 and P=0.07, respectively). These results correspond favorably with the results obtained with other RIC regimens not incorporating ATG, and suggest that ATG may have a protective pulmonary role after allo-SCT.

  10. Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramstein, Gilles; Tan, Ning; Ladant, Jean-baptiste; Dumas, Christophe; Contoux, Camille

    2017-04-01

    During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), the global annual mean temperatures inferred by data and model studies were 2-3° warmer than pre-industrial values. Accordingly, Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to reach at the most, only half of that of present-day [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ˜ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, the Greenland ice sheet has reached its full size [Lunt et al. 2008]. A crucial question concerns the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet from half to full size during the 3 - 2.5 Ma period. Data show a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined with low summer insolation to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maxima. This suggests rather a cumulative process than an abrupt event. In order to diagnose the evolution of the ice sheet build-up, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables us to investigate the waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. We use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014), which allows the evolution of CO2 concentration and of orbital parameters, and the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet size to be taken into account. By interpolating climatic snapshot simulations ran with various possible combinations of CO2, orbits and ice sheet sizes, we can build a continuous climatic forcing that is then used to provide 500 kyrs-long ice sheet simulations. With such a tool, we may offer a physically based answer to different CO2 reconstructions scenarios and analyse which one is the most consistent with Greenland ice sheet buildup.

  11. Model-checking techniques based on cumulative residuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, D Y; Wei, L J; Ying, Z

    2002-03-01

    Residuals have long been used for graphical and numerical examinations of the adequacy of regression models. Conventional residual analysis based on the plots of raw residuals or their smoothed curves is highly subjective, whereas most numerical goodness-of-fit tests provide little information about the nature of model misspecification. In this paper, we develop objective and informative model-checking techniques by taking the cumulative sums of residuals over certain coordinates (e.g., covariates or fitted values) or by considering some related aggregates of residuals, such as moving sums and moving averages. For a variety of statistical models and data structures, including generalized linear models with independent or dependent observations, the distributions of these stochastic processes tinder the assumed model can be approximated by the distributions of certain zero-mean Gaussian processes whose realizations can be easily generated by computer simulation. Each observed process can then be compared, both graphically and numerically, with a number of realizations from the Gaussian process. Such comparisons enable one to assess objectively whether a trend seen in a residual plot reflects model misspecification or natural variation. The proposed techniques are particularly useful in checking the functional form of a covariate and the link function. Illustrations with several medical studies are provided.

  12. An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

  13. An analysis of cumulative risks based on biomonitoring data for six phthalates using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single chemical drives the cumulative risk of an individual exposed to multiple chemicals. Phthalates are a class of chemicals with ubiquitous exposures in the general population that have the potential to cause ...

  14. Cumulative effects of cascade hydropower stations on total dissolved gas supersaturation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Qian; Li, Ran; Feng, Jingjie; Lu, Jingying; Zhou, Qin

    2018-03-01

    Elevated levels of total dissolved gas (TDG) may occur downstream of dams during the spill process. These high levels would increase the incidence of gas bubble disease in fish and cause severe environmental impacts. With increasing numbers of cascade hydropower stations being built or planned, the cumulative effects of TDG supersaturation are becoming increasingly prominent. The TDG saturation distribution in the downstream reaches of the Jinsha River was studied to investigate the cumulative effects of TDG supersaturation resulting from the cascade hydropower stations. A comparison of the effects of the joint operation and the single operation of two hydropower stations (XLD and XJB) was performed to analyze the risk degree to fish posed by TDG supersaturation. The results showed that water with supersaturated TDG generated at the upstream cascade can be transported to the downstream power station, leading to cumulative TDG supersaturation effects. Compared with the single operation of XJB, the joint operation of both stations produced a much higher TDG saturation downstream of XJB, especially during the non-flood discharge period. Moreover, the duration of high TDG saturation and the lengths of the lethal and sub-lethal areas were much higher in the joint operation scenario, posing a greater threat to fish and severely damaging the environment. This work provides a scientific basis for strategies to reduce TDG supersaturation to the permissible level and minimize the potential risk of supersaturated TDG.

  15. Diabetes Incidence and Glucose Tolerance after Termination of Pioglitazone Therapy: Results from ACT NOW.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, Devjit; Schwenke, Dawn C; Banerji, MaryAnn; Bray, George A; Buchanan, Thomas A; Clement, Stephen C; Henry, Robert R; Kitabchi, Abbas E; Mudaliar, Sunder; Ratner, Robert E; Stentz, Frankie B; Musi, Nicolas; Reaven, Peter D; DeFronzo, Ralph A

    2016-05-01

    Thiazolidinediones have proven efficacy in preventing diabetes in high-risk individuals. However, the effect of thiazolidinediones on glucose tolerance after cessation of therapy is unclear. To examine the effect of pioglitazone (PIO) on incidence of diabetes after discontinuing therapy in ACT NOW. Design, Settings and Patients: Two-hundred ninety-three subjects (placebo [PLAC], n = 138; PIO, n = 152) completed a median followup of 11.7 mo after study medication was stopped. Diabetes developed in 138 (12.3%) of PLAC vs 17 of 152 PIO patients (11.2%; P = not significant, PIO vs PLAC). However, the cumulative incidence of diabetes from start of study medication to end of washout period remained significantly lower in PIO vs PLAC (10.7 vs 22.3%; P < .005). After therapy was discontinued, 23.0% (35/152) of PIO-treated patients remained normal-glucose tolerant (NGT) vs 13.8% (19/138) of PLAC-treated patients (P = .04). Insulin secretion/insulin resistance index (I0-120/G0-120 × Matsuda index) was markedly lower in subjects with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) who converted to diabetes during followup vs those who remained IGT or NGT. The decline in-cell function (insulin secretion/insulin resistance index) was similar in subjects with IGT who developed diabetes, irrespective of whether they were treated with PIO or PLAC. 1) The protective effect of PIO on incidence of diabetes attenuates after discontinuation of therapy, 2) cumulative incidence of diabetes in individuals exposed to PIO remained significantly (56%) lower than PLAC and a greater number of PIO-treated individuals maintained NGT after median followup of 11.4 mo, and 3) low insulin secretion/insulin resistance index is a strong predictor of future diabetes following PIO discontinuation.

  16. Cancer incidence among Nordic airline cabin crew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukkala, Eero; Helminen, Mika; Haldorsen, Tor; Hammar, Niklas; Kojo, Katja; Linnersjö, Anette; Rafnsson, Vilhjálmur; Tulinius, Hrafn; Tveten, Ulf; Auvinen, Anssi

    2012-12-15

    Airline cabin crew are occupationally exposed to cosmic radiation and jet lag with potential disruption of circadian rhythms. This study assesses the influence of work-related factors in cancer incidence of cabin crew members. A cohort of 8,507 female and 1,559 male airline cabin attendants from Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden was followed for cancer incidence for a mean follow-up time of 23.6 years through the national cancer registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were defined as ratios of observed and expected numbers of cases. A case-control study nested in the cohort (excluding Norway) was conducted to assess the relation between the estimated cumulative cosmic radiation dose and cumulative number of flights crossing six time zones (indicator of circadian disruption) and cancer risk. Analysis of breast cancer was adjusted for parity and age at first live birth. Among female cabin crew, a significantly increased incidence was observed for breast cancer [SIR 1.50, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.32-1.69], leukemia (1.89, 95% CI 1.03-3.17) and skin melanoma (1.85, 95% CI 1.41-2.38). Among men, significant excesses in skin melanoma (3.00, 95% CI 1.78-4.74), nonmelanoma skin cancer (2.47, 95% CI 1.18-4.53), Kaposi sarcoma (86.0, 95% CI 41.2-158) and alcohol-related cancers (combined SIR 3.12, 95% CI 1.95-4.72) were found. This large study with complete follow-up and comprehensive cancer incidence data shows an increased incidence of several cancers, but according to the case-control analysis, excesses appear not to be related to the cosmic radiation or circadian disruptions from crossing multiple time zones. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

  17. Pseudorapidity distributions of charged particles as a function of centrality in Pb-Pb collisions at 158 and 40 GeV per nucleon incident energy

    CERN Document Server

    Abreu, M C; Alexa, C; Arnaldi, R; Ataian, M R; Baglin, C; Baldit, A; Bedjidian, Marc; Beolè, S; Boldea, V; Bordalo, P; Borges, G; Bussière, A; Capelli, L; Castanier, C; Castor, J I; Chaurand, B; Chevrot, I; Cheynis, B; Chiavassa, E; Cicalò, C; Claudino, T; Comets, M P; Constans, N; Constantinescu, S; Cortese, P; De Falco, A; De Marco, N; Dellacasa, G; Devaux, A; Dita, S; Drapier, O; Ducroux, L; Espagnon, B; Fargeix, J; Force, P; Gallio, M; Gavrilov, Yu K; Gerschel, C; Giubellino, P; Golubeva, M B; Gonin, M; Grigorian, A A; Grigorian, S; Grossiord, J Y; Guber, F F; Guichard, A; Gulkanian, H R; Hakobyan, R S; Haroutunian, R; Idzik, M; Jouan, D; Karavitcheva, T L; Kluberg, L; Kurepin, A B; Le Bornec, Y; Lourenço, C; Macciotta, P; MacCormick, M; Marzari-Chiesa, A; Masera, M; Masoni, A; Monteno, M; Musso, A; Petiau, P; Piccotti, A; Pizzi, J R; Prado da Silva, W L; Prino, F; Puddu, G; Quintans, C; Ramello, L; Ramos, S; Rato-Mendes, P; Riccati, L; Romana, A; Santos, H; Saturnini, P; Scalas, E; Scomparin, E; Serci, S; Shahoyan, R; Sigaudo, F; Silva, S; Sitta, M; Sonderegger, P; Tarrago, X; Topilskaya, N S; Usai, G L; Vercellin, Ermanno; Villatte, L; Willis, N

    2002-01-01

    The charged particle distributions $dN_{ch}/d\\eta$ have been measured by the NA50 experiment in Pb--Pb collisions at the CERN SPS. Measurements have been done at incident energies of 158 and 40 GeV per nucleon over a broad impact parameter range. Results obtained with two independent centrality estimators, namely the neutral transverse energy $E_T$ and the forward energy $E_{ZDC}$, are reported.}

  18. CUMULANT STRUCTURE FOR THE BILINEAR MULTIPLICATIVE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2005-10-06

    Oct 6, 2005 ... SEASONAL ARIMA (O,d,O) x (1 ,D,I), TIME SERIES MODEL ... R(k) = aa-' R(s), k = as, a = 1,2,3, .. . 0, otherwise he autocorrelation functions ( ac.fs ) ... -In der&ing ~ q i a t i o n (2.1) through (2.11), lwueze and Chikezie (2005) ...

  19. Cumulative damage fraction design approach for LMFBR metallic fuel elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, D.L.; Einziger, R.E.; Huchman, G.D.

    1979-01-01

    The cumulative damage fraction (CDF) analytical technique is currently being used to analyze the performance of metallic fuel elements for proliferation-resistant LMFBRs. In this technique, the fraction of the total time to rupture of the cladding is calculated as a function of the thermal, stress, and neutronic history. Cladding breach or rupture is implied by CDF = 1. Cladding wastage, caused by interactions with both the fuel and sodium coolant, is assumed to uniformly thin the cladding wall. The irradiation experience of the EBR-II Mark-II driver fuel with solution-annealed Type 316 stainless steel cladding provides an excellent data base for testing the applicability of the CDF technique to metallic fuel. The advanced metal fuels being considered for use in LMFBRs are U-15-Pu-10Zr, Th-20Pu and Th-2OU (compositions are given in weight percent). The two cladding alloys being considered are Type 316 stainless steel and a titanium-stabilized Type 316 stainless steel. Both are in the cold-worked condition. The CDF technique was applied to these fuels and claddings under the assumed steady-state operating conditions

  20. The Role of Cumulative Trauma, Betrayal, and Appraisals in Understanding Trauma Symptomatology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Christina Gamache; Cromer, Lisa Demarni; Deprince, Anne P; Freyd, Jennifer J

    2013-03-01

    Poor psychological outcomes are common among trauma survivors, yet not all survivors experience adverse sequelae. The current study examined links between cumulative trauma exposure as a function of the level of betrayal (measured by the relational closeness of the survivor and the perpetrator), trauma appraisals, gender, and trauma symptoms. Participants were 273 college students who reported experiencing at least one traumatic event on a trauma checklist. Three cumulative indices were constructed to assess the number of different types of traumas experienced that were low (LBTs), moderate (MBTs), or high in betrayal (HBTs). Greater trauma exposure was related to more symptoms of depression, dissociation, and PTSD, with exposure to HBTs contributing the most. Women were more likely to experience HBTs than men, but there were no gender differences in trauma-related symptoms. Appraisals of trauma were predictive of trauma-related symptoms over and above the effects explained by cumulative trauma at each level of betrayal. The survivor's relationship with the perpetrator, the effect of cumulative trauma, and their combined impact on trauma symptomatology are discussed.

  1. Cumulative environmental impacts and integrated coastal management: the case of Xiamen, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Xiongzhi; Hong, Huasheng; Charles, Anthony T

    2004-07-01

    This paper examines the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts and the implementation of integrated coastal management within the harbour of Xiamen, China, an urban region in which the coastal zone is under increasing pressure as a result of very rapid economic growth. The first stage of analysis incorporates components of a cumulative effects assessment, including (a) identification of sources of environmental impacts, notably industrial expansion, port development, shipping, waste disposal, aquaculture and coastal construction, (b) selection of a set of valued ecosystem components, focusing on circulation and siltation, water quality, sediment, the benthic community, and mangrove forests, and (c) use of a set of key indicators to examine cumulative impacts arising from the aggregate of human activities. In the second stage of analysis, the paper describes and assesses the development of an institutional framework for integrated coastal management in Xiamen, one that combines policy and planning (including legislative and enforcement mechanisms) with scientific and monitoring mechanisms (including an innovative 'marine functional zoning' system). The paper concludes that the integrated coastal management framework in Xiamen has met all relevant requirements for 'integration' as laid out in the literature, and has explicitly incorporated consideration of cumulative impacts within its management and monitoring processes.

  2. Cumulative Environmental Impacts: Science and Policy to Protect Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Gina M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Zeise, Lauren; Faust, John B

    2016-01-01

    Many communities are located near multiple sources of pollution, including current and former industrial sites, major roadways, and agricultural operations. Populations in such locations are predominantly low-income, with a large percentage of minorities and non-English speakers. These communities face challenges that can affect the health of their residents, including limited access to health care, a shortage of grocery stores, poor housing quality, and a lack of parks and open spaces. Environmental exposures may interact with social stressors, thereby worsening health outcomes. Age, genetic characteristics, and preexisting health conditions increase the risk of adverse health effects from exposure to pollutants. There are existing approaches for characterizing cumulative exposures, cumulative risks, and cumulative health impacts. Although such approaches have merit, they also have significant constraints. New developments in exposure monitoring, mapping, toxicology, and epidemiology, especially when informed by community participation, have the potential to advance the science on cumulative impacts and to improve decision making.

  3. Pesticide Cumulative Risk Assessment: Framework for Screening Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides guidance on how to screen groups of pesticides for cumulative evaluation using a two-step approach: begin with evaluation of available toxicological information and, if necessary, follow up with a risk-based screening approach.

  4. Online Scheduling in Manufacturing A Cumulative Delay Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Suwa, Haruhiko

    2013-01-01

    Online scheduling is recognized as the crucial decision-making process of production control at a phase of “being in production" according to the released shop floor schedule. Online scheduling can be also considered as one of key enablers to realize prompt capable-to-promise as well as available-to-promise to customers along with reducing production lead times under recent globalized competitive markets. Online Scheduling in Manufacturing introduces new approaches to online scheduling based on a concept of cumulative delay. The cumulative delay is regarded as consolidated information of uncertainties under a dynamic environment in manufacturing and can be collected constantly without much effort at any points in time during a schedule execution. In this approach, the cumulative delay of the schedule has the important role of a criterion for making a decision whether or not a schedule revision is carried out. The cumulative delay approach to trigger schedule revisions has the following capabilities for the ...

  5. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  6. Peer tutors as learning and teaching partners: a cumulative ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... paper explores the kinds of development in tutors' thinking and action that are possible when training and development is theoretically informed, coherent, and oriented towards improving practice. Keywords: academic development, academic literacies, cumulative learning, higher education, peer tutoring, writing centres.

  7. CTD Information Guide. Preventing Cumulative Trauma Disorders in the Workplace

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide Army occupational safety and health (OSH) professionals with a primer that explains the basic principles of ergonomic-hazard recognition for common cumulative trauma disorders...

  8. Cumulative query method for influenza surveillance using search engine data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Dong-Woo; Jo, Min-Woo; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Shin, Soo-Yong; Lee, JaeHo; Yu, Maengsoo; Kim, Won Young; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Lee, Sang-Il

    2014-12-16

    Internet search queries have become an important data source in syndromic surveillance system. However, there is currently no syndromic surveillance system using Internet search query data in South Korea. The objective of this study was to examine correlations between our cumulative query method and national influenza surveillance data. Our study was based on the local search engine, Daum (approximately 25% market share), and influenza-like illness (ILI) data from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A quota sampling survey was conducted with 200 participants to obtain popular queries. We divided the study period into two sets: Set 1 (the 2009/10 epidemiological year for development set 1 and 2010/11 for validation set 1) and Set 2 (2010/11 for development Set 2 and 2011/12 for validation Set 2). Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated between the Daum data and the ILI data for the development set. We selected the combined queries for which the correlation coefficients were .7 or higher and listed them in descending order. Then, we created a cumulative query method n representing the number of cumulative combined queries in descending order of the correlation coefficient. In validation set 1, 13 cumulative query methods were applied, and 8 had higher correlation coefficients (min=.916, max=.943) than that of the highest single combined query. Further, 11 of 13 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 4 of 13 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. In validation set 2, 8 of 15 cumulative query methods showed higher correlation coefficients (min=.975, max=.987) than that of the highest single combined query. All 15 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 6 of 15 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. Cumulative query method showed relatively higher correlation with national influenza surveillance data than combined queries in the development and validation set.

  9. Steps and pips in the history of the cumulative recorder.

    OpenAIRE

    Lattal, Kennon A

    2004-01-01

    From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This review traces the evolution of the cumulative recorder from Skinner's early modified kymographs through various models developed by Skinner and his co...

  10. Mapping Cumulative Impacts of Human Activities on Marine Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    , Seaplan

    2018-01-01

    Given the diversity of human uses and natural resources that converge in coastal waters, the potential independent and cumulative impacts of those uses on marine ecosystems are important to consider during ocean planning. This study was designed to support the development and implementation of the 2009 Massachusetts Ocean Management Plan. Its goal was to estimate and visualize the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal and marine ecosystems in the state and federal waters off of Ma...

  11. Charge state and incident energy dependence of K X-ray emission as a function of target thickness for 50-165 MeV Cu ions incident on 11-250 μg/cm2 Cu

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Momoi, T.; Shima, K.; Umetani, K.; Moriyama, M.; Ishihara, T.; Mikumo, T.

    1986-01-01

    Thin self-supporting Cu targets in 11-250 μg/cm 2 thickness were bombarded with 50-165 MeV Cu sup(qi + ) ions (7 + )+Cu. From the observed K X-ray yields, K-shell vacancy production cross sections averaged over the target thickness t of projectile sigmasub(KV) and target sigmasup(*)sub(KV) were separately derived taking into account the fluorescence yield that can be estimated from the Ksub(α) X-ray energy shift. When the values of sigmasub(KV) and sigmasup(*)sub(KV) are extrapolated to zero foil thickness, the K shell vacancy formed in the collision has been found to be equally shared between projectile and target in a single collision. With the increase of penetration depth, however, the values of sigmasup(*)sub(KV) are greater than those of sigmasub(KV) presumably due to electron transfer of a target K electron to the projectile K vacancy. The evolution process of projectile excited states as a function of target thickness and the resulting variation of projectile and target K X-ray emissions are discussed. (orig.)

  12. Hadron correlations in nuclear reactions with production of cumulative protons induced by π- mesons with momentum of 6.0 GeV/c

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayukov, Yu.D.; Vlasov, A.V.; Gavrilov, V.B.

    1981-01-01

    Hardonic correlations were investigated in reactions with the proton backward production induced by 6.0-GeV/c π - mesons on nuclei Be, C, Al, Cu, Cd, Pb, U. The studied correlations indicate an essential role of multiple interactions of the incident particle in production of cumulative protons [ru

  13. Validity of the cumulant method for a pulse nonlinear Kerr oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grygiel, K.; Leonski, W.; Szlachetka, P.

    1998-01-01

    We study the dynamics of an anharmonic oscillator driven by a train of pulses. The cumulant expansion and quantum evolution operator approaches are presented and compared. The modifications introduced by quantum mechanics into the dynamics of classical systems which manifest chaos are a problem of great importance. It is known that quantization modifies the dynamics of classical system is usually studied by means of the equation for the Wigner function derived from the quantum Liouville equation. In Wigner's formulation of quantum mechanics we treat a quantum system in a 'classical way' including all their quantum features. And what is more, we can contrast the quantum and classical dynamics within the framework of one formalism. The problem is, that the equations for the Wigner functions are mathematically cumbersome and their analytic solutions for most nonlinear systems are unknown. However, instead of the equation for the Wigner function we can use the set of equations for statistical moments generated by our equation for the Wigner function. It is obvious that in this approach a quantum system is governed by an infinite set of equations. Therefore, for numerical reasons the set of equations for statistical moments has to be truncated at a finite number, which means approximating it. It is known that first cumulant approximation represents the classical dynamics. The second cumulant approximation adds the first quantum corrections to the classical dynamics. In this paper we compare some aspects of the cumulant method and the method used by Leonski and Tanas to study an anharmonic oscillator driven by a train of pulses. The Kerr oscillator model is the same ad that is discussed in an earlier paper albeit without the damping mechanism

  14. The Impact of Learning on Cumulative Innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santiago, Leonardo; Couto, Julia; Joglekar, Nitin

    The ability to continuously innovate is a key asset to maintain a competitive advantage. A sequence of successful innovations can render a company not only a new product or technique but also a platform which could be used in future. This work investigates how knowledge is accumulated over time...... as a function of managerial decisions and the dynamics of firm’s knowledge. Our results show that an organization can actively select pivoting points to appropriately balance exploration and exploitation initiatives and successfully learn. Moreover, we show how companies improve their performance by reacting...

  15. Looking up, down, and sideways: Reconceiving cumulative effects assessment as a mindset

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sinclair, A. John, E-mail: jsincla@umanitoba.ca [Natural Resources Institute, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2 (Canada); Doelle, Meinhard, E-mail: mdoelle@dal.ca [Marine & Environmental Law Institute, Dalhousie University, Schulich School of Law, Dalhousie University, 6061 University Ave., Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2 (Canada); Duinker, Peter N., E-mail: peter.duinker@dal.ca [School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, 6100 University Ave., Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2 (Canada)

    2017-01-15

    Despite all the effort that has gone into defining, researching and establishing best practices for cumulative effects assessment (CEA), understanding remains weak and practice wanting. At one extreme of implementation, CEA can be described as merely an irritant to the completion of a project-specific environmental assessment (EA). At the other extreme, the conceptual view is that all effects in EA should be deemed cumulative unless demonstrated otherwise. Our purpose here is to consider how we might reconceive CEA as a mindset that is at the heart of absolutely every assessment of valued ecosystem component (VEC) to ensure that we understand the relative contributions of various stressors and can decide when cumulative effects may foreclose future activities due to impacts on VECs. Conceptually, we ground the CEA mindset in the context of three lenses that must all be functioning and working together for the mindset to be operative: a technical lens; a law and policy lens; and a participatory lens. Our arguments are based on a review of the CEA, strategic effects assessment (SEA) and regional effects assessment literatures, an examination and consideration of Canadian EA and SEA case practice, and our combined professional experiences. Through using the Bay of Fundy in Canada as a case example, we establish the concept of the CEA mindset and an approach for moving forward with implementation. - Highlights: • Conceptualization of cumulative effects assessment as a mindset. • Elaboration of technical, law and policy and participation lenses critical to CEA • Coordination and integration of cumulative effects for valued ecosystem components • Application in Bay of Fundy ecosystem and terrestrial watershed.

  16. Equations for the stochastic cumulative multiplying chain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewins, J D [Cambridge Univ. (UK). Dept. of Engineering

    1980-01-01

    The forward and backward equations for the conditional probability of the neutron multiplying chain are derived in a new generalization accounting for the chain length and admitting time dependent properties. These Kolmogorov equations form the basis of a variational and hence complete description of the 'lumped' multiplying system. The equations reduce to the marginal distribution, summed over all chain lengths, and to the simpler equations previously derived for that problem. The method of derivation, direct and in the probability space with the minimum of mathematical manipulations, is perhaps the chief attraction: the equations are also displayed in conventional generating function form. As such, they appear to apply to number of problems in areas of social anthropology, polymer chemistry, genetics and cell biology as well as neutron reactor theory and radiation damage.

  17. Equations for the stochastic cumulative multiplying chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewins, J.D.

    1980-01-01

    The forward and backward equations for the conditional probability of the neutron multiplying chain are derived in a new generalization accounting for the chain length and admitting time dependent properties. These Kolmogorov equations form the basis of a variational and hence complete description of the 'lumped' multiplying system. The equations reduce to the marginal distribution, summed over all chain lengths, and to the simpler equations previously derived for that problem. The method of derivation, direct and in the probability space with the minimum of mathematical manipulations, is perhaps the chief attraction: the equations are also displayed in conventional generating function form. As such, they appear to apply to number of problems in areas of social anthropology, polymer chemistry, genetics and cell biology as well as neutron reactor theory and radiation damage. (author)

  18. Impact of Incidents on Traffic Congestion in Dar es Salaam City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Mfinanga

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Poorly managed traffic incidents have largely contributed to congestion and delay in the city of Dar es Salaam. A thorough understanding of travel delays caused by incidents is therefore essential for effective countermeasures against the increasing congestion. The method used to determine delays in this research is based on the deterministic queuing theory. Information on incidents was obtained from traffic surveys, traffic police and road users. Counting of the number of vehicles passing the incident location was done on incident and incident-free days. The cumulative traffic counts on incident and incident-free days were then calculated and used to plot the queuing diagram used to determine incident induced delay. This method turned out to be a useful tool for estimating incident induced delay in areas with less sophisticated equipment i.e. where there are no sensors, CCTV cameras, etc. The method provided good estimates of incident induced delay which may help planners and transportation officials in better understanding incident related congestion and in selecting more effective countermeasures against incident related traffic congestion in the city. It was found out that the effects of incidents were different for the different zones, types of incidents and the periods the incident occurred. In addition to the incident duration and the number of vehicles affected, the impact of incidents also depended on availability of alternative routes, number of lanes on the road, discipline of the driver in manoeuvring at incident location and traffic control at the scene.

  19. Serious hemorrhages after ischemic stroke or TIA - Incidence, mortality, and predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ögren, Joachim; Irewall, Anna-Lotta; Söderström, Lars; Mooe, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    Data are lacking on the risk and impact of a serious hemorrhage on the prognosis after ischemic stroke (IS) or transient ischemic attack (TIA). We aimed to estimate the incidence of serious hemorrhage, analyze the impact on mortality, and identify predictors of hemorrhage after discharge from IS or TIA. All patients admitted to Östersund Hospital for an IS or TIA in 2010-2013 were included (n = 1528, mean age: 75.1 years). Serious hemorrhages were identified until 31st December 2015. Incidence rates were calculated. The impact on mortality (stratified by functional level) was determined with Kaplan-Meier analysis. Non-parametric estimation under the assumption of competing risk was performed to assess the cumulative incidence and predictors of serious hemorrhages. The incidence rates of serious (n = 113) and intracranial hemorrhages (n = 45) after discharge from IS and TIA were 2.48% and 0.96% per year at risk, respectively. Patients with modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores of 3-5 exhibited 58.9% mortality during follow-up and those with mRS scores of 0-2 exhibited 18.4% mortality. A serious hemorrhage did not affect mortality in patients with impaired functional status, but it increased the risk of death in patients with mRS scores of 0-2. Hypertension was associated with increased risk of serious hemorrhage. We found that, after discharge from an IS or TIA, serious hemorrhages were fairly common. Impairments in function were associated with high mortality, but serious hemorrhages only increased the risk of mortality in patients with no or slight disability. Improved hypertension treatment may decrease the risk of serious hemorrhage, but in patients with low functional status, poor survival makes secondary prevention challenging.

  20. Maintenance hemodialysis patients have high cumulative radiation exposure.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kinsella, Sinead M

    2010-10-01

    Hemodialysis is associated with an increased risk of neoplasms which may result, at least in part, from exposure to ionizing radiation associated with frequent radiographic procedures. In order to estimate the average radiation exposure of those on hemodialysis, we conducted a retrospective study of 100 patients in a university-based dialysis unit followed for a median of 3.4 years. The number and type of radiological procedures were obtained from a central radiology database, and the cumulative effective radiation dose was calculated using standardized, procedure-specific radiation levels. The median annual radiation dose was 6.9 millisieverts (mSv) per patient-year. However, 14 patients had an annual cumulative effective radiation dose over 20 mSv, the upper averaged annual limit for occupational exposure. The median total cumulative effective radiation dose per patient over the study period was 21.7 mSv, in which 13 patients had a total cumulative effective radiation dose over 75 mSv, a value reported to be associated with a 7% increased risk of cancer-related mortality. Two-thirds of the total cumulative effective radiation dose was due to CT scanning. The average radiation exposure was significantly associated with the cause of end-stage renal disease, history of ischemic heart disease, transplant waitlist status, number of in-patient hospital days over follow-up, and death during the study period. These results highlight the substantial exposure to ionizing radiation in hemodialysis patients.

  1. Validity of the National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology-Functional Assessment Tool and Mini-Mental State Examination for detecting the incidence of dementia in older Japanese adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimada, Hiroyuki; Makizako, Hyuma; Park, Hyuntae; Doi, Takehiko; Lee, Sangyoon

    2017-12-01

    Numerous neuropsychological tests are implemented in the clinical setting. However, a readily available cognitive test is required to detect the risk of dementia in the community setting. A total of 4151 persons aged ≥65 years participated in the present prospective cohort study. We assessed cognitive performance using the Mini-Mental State Examination and the National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology-Functional Assessment Tool. The National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology-Functional Assessment Tool includes tests of story and word list memory, attention and executive function, processing speed, and visuospatial skill to screen for cognitive impairment. All measurements were transformed to Z-scores to compare among the cognitive tests. The incidence of dementia was determined using data collected by the Japanese Health Insurance System over 36 months. After an average of 43 months, 180 (4.3%) participants were diagnosed with dementia. Survival analyses showed that the probability of dementia was significantly associated with all cognitive tests, except for visuospatial skill. The processing speed test showed the highest hazard ratios for the incidence of dementia (Z-score: hazard ratio 0.61, 95% confidence interval 0.50-0.75, P Mini-Mental State Examination, play an important role in detecting the risk of dementia in the community setting. Further analysis is required to identify the risk of dementia in older people without global cognitive impairment. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 2383-2388. © 2017 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  2. Downstream cumulative effects of land use on freshwater communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuglerová, L.; Kielstra, B. W.; Moore, D.; Richardson, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Many streams and rivers are subject to disturbance from intense land use such as urbanization and agriculture, and this is especially obvious for small headwaters. Streams are spatially organized into networks where headwaters represent the tributaries and provide water, nutrients, and organic material to the main stems. Therefore perturbations within the headwaters might be cumulatively carried on downstream. Although we know that the disturbance of headwaters in urban and agricultural landscapes poses threats to downstream river reaches, the magnitude and severity of these changes for ecological communities is less known. We studied stream networks along a gradient of disturbance connected to land use intensity, from urbanized watersheds to watersheds placed in agricultural settings in the Greater Toronto Area. Further, we compared the patterns and processes found in the modified watershed to a control watershed, situated in a forested, less impacted landscape. Preliminary results suggest that hydrological modifications (flash floods), habitat loss (drainage and sewer systems), and water quality issues of small streams in urbanized and agricultural watersheds represent major disturbances and threats for aquatic and riparian biota on local as well as larger spatial scales. For example, communities of riparian plants are dominated by species typical of the land use on adjacent uplands as well as the dominant land use on the upstream contributing area, instead of riparian obligates commonly found in forested watersheds. Further, riparian communities in disturbed environments are dominated by invasive species. The changes in riparian communities are vital for various functions of riparian vegetation. Bank erosion control is suppressed, leading to severe channel transformations and sediment loadings in urbanized watersheds. Food sources for instream biota and thermal regimes are also changed, which further triggers alterations of in-stream biological communities

  3. Genetic algorithm-based improved DOA estimation using fourth-order cumulants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Ammar; Tufail, Muhammad

    2017-05-01

    Genetic algorithm (GA)-based direction of arrival (DOA) estimation is proposed using fourth-order cumulants (FOC) and ESPRIT principle which results in Multiple Invariance Cumulant ESPRIT algorithm. In the existing FOC ESPRIT formulations, only one invariance is utilised to estimate DOAs. The unused multiple invariances (MIs) must be exploited simultaneously in order to improve the estimation accuracy. In this paper, a fitness function based on a carefully designed cumulant matrix is developed which incorporates MIs present in the sensor array. Better DOA estimation can be achieved by minimising this fitness function. Moreover, the effectiveness of Newton's method as well as GA for this optimisation problem has been illustrated. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm provides improved estimation accuracy compared to existing algorithms, especially in the case of low SNR, less number of snapshots, closely spaced sources and high signal and noise correlation. Moreover, it is observed that the optimisation using Newton's method is more likely to converge to false local optima resulting in erroneous results. However, GA-based optimisation has been found attractive due to its global optimisation capability.

  4. Cyber Incidents Involving Control Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert J. Turk

    2005-10-01

    The Analysis Function of the US-CERT Control Systems Security Center (CSSC) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has prepared this report to document cyber security incidents for use by the CSSC. The description and analysis of incidents reported herein support three CSSC tasks: establishing a business case; increasing security awareness and private and corporate participation related to enhanced cyber security of control systems; and providing informational material to support model development and prioritize activities for CSSC. The stated mission of CSSC is to reduce vulnerability of critical infrastructure to cyber attack on control systems. As stated in the Incident Management Tool Requirements (August 2005) ''Vulnerability reduction is promoted by risk analysis that tracks actual risk, emphasizes high risk, determines risk reduction as a function of countermeasures, tracks increase of risk due to external influence, and measures success of the vulnerability reduction program''. Process control and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems, with their reliance on proprietary networks and hardware, have long been considered immune to the network attacks that have wreaked so much havoc on corporate information systems. New research indicates this confidence is misplaced--the move to open standards such as Ethernet, Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol, and Web technologies is allowing hackers to take advantage of the control industry's unawareness. Much of the available information about cyber incidents represents a characterization as opposed to an analysis of events. The lack of good analyses reflects an overall weakness in reporting requirements as well as the fact that to date there have been very few serious cyber attacks on control systems. Most companies prefer not to share cyber attack incident data because of potential financial repercussions. Uniform reporting requirements will do much to make this

  5. The incidence and prognostic implications of worsening right ventricular function after surgical or transcatheter aortic valve replacement: insights from PARTNER IIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cremer, Paul C; Zhang, Yiran; Alu, Maria; Rodriguez, L Leonardo; Lindman, Brian R; Zajarias, Alan; Hahn, Rebecca T; Lerakis, Stamatios; Malaisrie, S Chris; Douglas, Pamela S; Pibarot, Philippe; Svensson, Lars G; Leon, Martin B; Jaber, Wael A

    2018-05-08

    In patients randomized to transcatheter or surgical aortic valve replacement (TAVR, SAVR), we sought to determine whether SAVR is associated with worsening right ventricular (RV) function and whether RV deterioration is associated with mortality. In 1376 patients from PARTNERIIA with paired baseline and 30-day core lab echocardiograms, worsening RV function was defined as decline by at least one grade from baseline to 30 days. Our primary outcome was all-cause mortality from 30 days to 2 years. Among 744 patients with TAVR, 62 (8.3%) had worsening RV function, compared with 156 of 632 patients with SAVR (24.7%) (P < 0.0001). In a multivariable model, SAVR [odds ratio (OR) 4.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.55-6.44], a dilated RV (OR 2.38, 95% CI 1.37-4.14), and more than mild tricuspid regurgitation (TR) (OR 2.58, 95% CI 1.25-5.33) were associated with worsening RV function. There were 169 deaths, and patients with worsening RV function had higher all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.98, 95% CI 1.40-2.79]. This association remained robust after adjusting for clinical and echocardiographic variables. Among patients with worsening RV function, there was no mortality difference between TAVR and SAVR (HR 1.16, 95% CI 0.61-2.18). The development of moderate or severe RV dysfunction from baseline normal RV function conferred the worst prognosis (HR 2.87, 95% CI 1.40-5.89). After aortic valve replacement, worsening RV function is more common in patients with baseline RV dilation, more than mild TR, and in patients treated with SAVR. Worsening RV function and the magnitude of deterioration have important prognostic implications.

  6. Cumulative Trauma Among Mayas Living in Southeast Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millender, Eugenia I; Lowe, John

    2017-06-01

    Mayas, having experienced genocide, exile, and severe poverty, are at high risk for the consequences of cumulative trauma that continually resurfaces through current fear of an uncertain future. Little is known about the mental health and alcohol use status of this population. This correlational study explored t/he relationship of cumulative trauma as it relates to social determinants of health (years in the United States, education, health insurance status, marital status, and employment), psychological health (depression symptoms), and health behaviors (alcohol use) of 102 Guatemalan Mayas living in Southeast Florida. The results of this study indicated that, as specific social determinants of health and cumulative trauma increased, depression symptoms (particularly among women) and the risk for harmful alcohol use (particularly among men) increased. Identifying risk factors at an early stage before serious disease or problems are manifest provides room for early screening leading to early identification, early treatment, and better outcomes.

  7. Session: What do we know about cumulative or population impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerlinger, Paul; Manville, Al; Kendall, Bill

    2004-09-01

    This session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of a panel discussion followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The panelists were Paul Kerlinger, Curry and Kerlinger, LLC, Al Manville, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Bill Kendall, US Geological Service. The panel addressed the potential cumulative impacts of wind turbines on bird and bat populations over time. Panel members gave brief presentations that touched on what is currently known, what laws apply, and the usefulness of population modeling. Topics addressed included which sources of modeling should be included in cumulative impacts, comparison of impacts from different modes of energy generation, as well as what research is still needed regarding cumulative impacts of wind energy development on bird and bat populations.

  8. Evolutionary neural network modeling for software cumulative failure time prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian Liang; Noore, Afzel

    2005-01-01

    An evolutionary neural network modeling approach for software cumulative failure time prediction based on multiple-delayed-input single-output architecture is proposed. Genetic algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the delayed input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network architecture. Modification of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to improve the ability to predict software cumulative failure time. The performance of our proposed approach has been compared using real-time control and flight dynamic application data sets. Numerical results show that both the goodness-of-fit and the next-step-predictability of our proposed approach have greater accuracy in predicting software cumulative failure time compared to existing approaches

  9. Baltic Sea biodiversity status vs. cumulative human pressures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper H.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Korpinen, Samuli

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Many studies have tried to explain spatial and temporal variations in biodiversity status of marine areas from a single-issue perspective, such as fishing pressure or coastal pollution, yet most continental seas experience a wide range of human pressures. Cumulative impact assessments have...... been developed to capture the consequences of multiple stressors for biodiversity, but the ability of these assessments to accurately predict biodiversity status has never been tested or ground-truthed. This relationship has similarly been assumed for the Baltic Sea, especially in areas with impaired...... status, but has also never been documented. Here we provide a first tentative indication that cumulative human impacts relate to ecosystem condition, i.e. biodiversity status, in the Baltic Sea. Thus, cumulative impact assessments offer a promising tool for informed marine spatial planning, designation...

  10. Incident Information Management Tool

    CERN Document Server

    Pejovic, Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Flaws of\tcurrent incident information management at CMS and CERN\tare discussed. A new data\tmodel for future incident database is\tproposed and briefly described. Recently developed draft version of GIS-­‐based tool for incident tracking is presented.

  11. Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

    2012-01-01

    The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO2 relative to other major climate forcing agents. PMID:22869803

  12. Prediction of postoperative morbidity, mortality and rehabilitation in hip fracture patients: the cumulated ambulation score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, Nicolai Bang; Kristensen, Morten Tange; Kehlet, Henrik

    2006-01-01

    fracture patients with an independent walking function admitted from their own home. Rehabilitation followed a well-defined multimodal rehabilitation regimen and discharge criteria. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Admission tests with a new mobility score to assess prefracture functional mobility and a short mental......OBJECTIVE: To validate the cumulated ambulation score as an early postoperative predictor of short-term outcome in hip fracture patients. DESIGN: Prospective, descriptive study. SETTING: An orthopaedic hip fracture unit in a university hospital. PATIENTS: Four hundred and twenty-six consecutive hip...... of short-term postoperative outcome after hip fracture surgery....

  13. The role of factorial cumulants in reactor neutron noise theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombino, A.; Pacilio, N.; Sena, G.

    1979-01-01

    The physical meaning and the combinatorial implications of the factorial cumulant of a state variable such as the number of neutrons or the number of neutron counts are specified. Features of the presentation are: (1) the fission process is treated in its entirety without the customary binary emission restriction, (b) the introduction of the factorial cumulants helps in reducing the complexity of the mathematical problems, (c) all the solutions can be obtained analytically. Only the ergodic hypothesis for the neutron population evolution is dealt with. (author)

  14. Super-Resolution Algorithm in Cumulative Virtual Blanking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montillet, J. P.; Meng, X.; Roberts, G. W.; Woolfson, M. S.

    2008-11-01

    The proliferation of mobile devices and the emergence of wireless location-based services have generated consumer demand for precise location. In this paper, the MUSIC super-resolution algorithm is applied to time delay estimation for positioning purposes in cellular networks. The goal is to position a Mobile Station with UMTS technology. The problem of Base-Stations herability is solved using Cumulative Virtual Blanking. A simple simulator is presented using DS-SS signal. The results show that MUSIC algorithm improves the time delay estimation in both the cases whether or not Cumulative Virtual Blanking was carried out.

  15. Skin barrier integrity and natural moisturising factor levels after cumulative dermal exposure to alkaline agents in atopic dermatitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Angelova-Fischer, Irena; Dapic, Irena; Hoek, Anne-Karin; Jakasa, Ivone; Fischer, Tobias W.; Zillikens, Detlef; Kezic, Sanja

    2014-01-01

    Dermal exposure to alkaline agents may lead to skin barrier damage and irritant contact dermatitis. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of cumulative exposure to 0.5% sodium lauryl sulphate (SLS) and 0.15% NaOH on the barrier function and natural moisturising factor (NMF)

  16. Benchmarking PARTISN with Analog Monte Carlo: Moments of the Neutron Number and the Cumulative Fission Number Probability Distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Rourke, Patrick Francis [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-10-27

    The purpose of this report is to provide the reader with an understanding of how a Monte Carlo neutron transport code was written, developed, and evolved to calculate the probability distribution functions (PDFs) and their moments for the neutron number at a final time as well as the cumulative fission number, along with introducing several basic Monte Carlo concepts.

  17. Functional decline in nursing home residents: A prognostic study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Jerez-Roig

    Full Text Available To verify the probability of maintaining functional capacity in basic activities of daily living and identify the prognostic factors of functional decline in institutionalized older adults.A longitudinal study is presented herein, with 5 waves every 6 months, throughout 2 years (2013-2015, conducted with individuals ≥60 years old in 10 nursing homes in the city of Natal-RN (Brazil. Functional capacity was assessed by the items 'eating', 'personal hygiene', 'dressing', 'bathing', 'transferring', 'toileting' and 'walking', through a 5-item Likert scale. Sociodemographic, institution-related and health-related variables were considered to establish the baseline. Time dependent variables included continence decline, cognitive decline, increase in the number of medication, and incidences of falls, hospitalizations and fractures. The actuarial method, the log-rank test and Cox's regression were applied as statistical methods.The cumulative probability of functional maintenance was 78.2% (CI 95%: 72.8-82.7%, 65.1% (CI 95%: 58.9-70.5%, 53.5% (CI 95%: 47.2-59.5% and 44.0% (CI 95%: 37.7-50.2% at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months, respectively. Predicting factors for functional decline were: severe cognitive impairment (HR = 1.96; p = 0.001, continence decline (HR = 1.85; p = 0.002 and incidence of hospitalizations (HR = 1.62; p = 0.020, adjusted by the incidence of depression, age, education level, presence of chronic diseases and low weight.The cumulative probability of maintaining functional capacity in institutionalized older adults was only 44% at the 2-year follow-up. Prognostic factors for functional decline included severe cognitive impairment, continence decline and incidence of hospitalizations.

  18. Cumulative risk of bovine mastitis treatments in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valde, J P; Lawson, L G; Lindberg, A; Agger, J F; Saloniemi, H; Osterås, O

    2004-01-01

    Data from the national dairy cow recording systems during 1997 were used to calculate lactation-specific cumulative risk of mastitis treatments and cumulative risk of removal from the herds in Denmark, Finland Norway and Sweden. Sweden had the lowest risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation and Norway had the highest risk. The incidence risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden was 0.177, 0.139, 0.215 and 0.127 for first parity cows and 0.228, 0.215, 0.358 and 0.204 for parities higher than three, respectively. The risk of a first parity cow being treated for mastitis was almost 3 times higher at calving in Norway than in Sweden. The period with the highest risk for mastitis treatments was from 2 days before calving until 14 days after calving and the highest risk for removal was from calving to 10 days after calving in all countries. The study clearly demonstrated differences in bovine mastitis treatment patterns among the Nordic countries. The most important findings were the differences in treatment risks during different lactations within each country, as well as differences in strategies with respect to the time during lactation mastitis was treated.

  19. Cumulative Risk of Bovine Mastitis Treatments in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saloniemi H

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Data from the national dairy cow recording systems during 1997 were used to calculate lactation-specific cumulative risk of mastitis treatments and cumulative risk of removal from the herds in Denmark, Finland Norway and Sweden. Sweden had the lowest risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation and Norway had the highest risk. The incidence risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden was 0.177, 0.139, 0.215 and 0.127 for first parity cows and 0.228, 0.215, 0.358 and 0.204 for parities higher than three, respectively. The risk of a first parity cow being treated for mastitis was almost 3 times higher at calving in Norway than in Sweden. The period with the highest risk for mastitis treatments was from 2 days before calving until 14 days after calving and the highest risk for removal was from calving to 10 days after calving in all countries. The study clearly demonstrated differences in bovine mastitis treatment patterns among the Nordic countries. The most important findings were the differences in treatment risks during different lactations within each country, as well as differences in strategies with respect to the time during lactation mastitis was treated.

  20. Cumulative effects of wind turbines. Volume 3: Report on results of consultations on cumulative effects of wind turbines on birds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-07-01

    This report gives details of the consultations held in developing the consensus approach taken in assessing the cumulative effects of wind turbines. Contributions on bird issues, and views of stakeholders, the Countryside Council for Wales, electric utilities, Scottish Natural Heritage, and the National Wind Power Association are reported. The scoping of key species groups, where cumulative effects might be expected, consideration of other developments, the significance of any adverse effects, mitigation, regional capacity assessments, and predictive models are discussed. Topics considered at two stakeholder workshops are outlined in the appendices.

  1. Cumulative impacts: current research and current opinions at PSW

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. M. Rice

    1987-01-01

    Consideration of cumulative watershed effects (CWEs) has both political and physical aspects. Regardless of the practical usefulness of present methods of dealing with CWEs, the legal requirement to address them remains. Management of federal land is regulated by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and the Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972. The...

  2. Cumulative Risks of Foster Care Placement for Danish Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    children. Our results also show some variations by parental ethnicity and sex, but these differences are small. Indeed, they appear quite muted relative to racial/ethnic differences in these risks in the United States. Last, though cumulative risks are similar between Danish and American children...

  3. Disintegration of a profiled shock wave at the cumulation point

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaliski, S.

    1978-01-01

    The disintegration at the cumulation point is analyzed of a shock wave generated with the aid of a profiled pressure. The quantitative relations are analyzed for the disintegration waves for typical compression parameters in systems of thermonuclear microfusion. The quantitative conclusions are drawn for the application of simplifying approximate calculations in problems of microfusion. (author)

  4. Cumulative Prospect Theory, Option Returns, and the Variance Premium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baele, Lieven; Driessen, Joost; Ebert, Sebastian; Londono Yarce, J.M.; Spalt, Oliver

    The variance premium and the pricing of out-of-the-money (OTM) equity index options are major challenges to standard asset pricing models. We develop a tractable equilibrium model with Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) preferences that can overcome both challenges. The key insight is that the

  5. Steps and Pips in the History of the Cumulative Recorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lattal, Kennon A.

    2004-01-01

    From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This…

  6. The effects of cumulative practice on mathematics problem solving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayfield, Kristin H; Chase, Philip N

    2002-01-01

    This study compared three different methods of teaching five basic algebra rules to college students. All methods used the same procedures to teach the rules and included four 50-question review sessions interspersed among the training of the individual rules. The differences among methods involved the kinds of practice provided during the four review sessions. Participants who received cumulative practice answered 50 questions covering a mix of the rules learned prior to each review session. Participants who received a simple review answered 50 questions on one previously trained rule. Participants who received extra practice answered 50 extra questions on the rule they had just learned. Tests administered after each review included new questions for applying each rule (application items) and problems that required novel combinations of the rules (problem-solving items). On the final test, the cumulative group outscored the other groups on application and problem-solving items. In addition, the cumulative group solved the problem-solving items significantly faster than the other groups. These results suggest that cumulative practice of component skills is an effective method of training problem solving.

  7. Anti-irritants II: Efficacy against cumulative irritation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Flemming; Hedegaard, Kathryn; Petersen, Thomas Kongstad

    2006-01-01

    window of opportunity in which to demonstrate efficacy. Therefore, the effect of AI was studied in a cumulative irritation model by inducing irritant dermatitis with 10 min daily exposures for 5+4 days (no irritation on weekend) to 1% sodium lauryl sulfate on the right and 20% nonanoic acid on the left...

  8. Cumulative Beam Breakup with Time-Dependent Parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Delayen, J R

    2004-01-01

    A general analytical formalism developed recently for cumulative beam breakup (BBU) in linear accelerators with arbitrary beam current profile and misalignments [1] is extended to include time-dependent parameters such as energy chirp or rf focusing in order to reduce BBU-induced instabilities and emittance growth. Analytical results are presented and applied to practical accelerator configurations.

  9. On the mechanism of hadron cumulative production on nucleus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efremov, A.V.

    1976-01-01

    A mechanism of cumulative production of hadrons on nucleus is proposed which is similar to that of high perpendicular hadron production. The cross section obtained describes the main qualitative features of such prosesses, e.g., initial energy dependence atomic number behaviour, dependence on the rest mass of the produced particle and its production angle

  10. Hyperscaling breakdown and Ising spin glasses: The Binder cumulant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundow, P. H.; Campbell, I. A.

    2018-02-01

    Among the Renormalization Group Theory scaling rules relating critical exponents, there are hyperscaling rules involving the dimension of the system. It is well known that in Ising models hyperscaling breaks down above the upper critical dimension. It was shown by Schwartz (1991) that the standard Josephson hyperscaling rule can also break down in Ising systems with quenched random interactions. A related Renormalization Group Theory hyperscaling rule links the critical exponents for the normalized Binder cumulant and the correlation length in the thermodynamic limit. An appropriate scaling approach for analyzing measurements from criticality to infinite temperature is first outlined. Numerical data on the scaling of the normalized correlation length and the normalized Binder cumulant are shown for the canonical Ising ferromagnet model in dimension three where hyperscaling holds, for the Ising ferromagnet in dimension five (so above the upper critical dimension) where hyperscaling breaks down, and then for Ising spin glass models in dimension three where the quenched interactions are random. For the Ising spin glasses there is a breakdown of the normalized Binder cumulant hyperscaling relation in the thermodynamic limit regime, with a return to size independent Binder cumulant values in the finite-size scaling regime around the critical region.

  11. How to manage the cumulative flood safety of catchment dams ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dam safety is a significant issue being taken seriously worldwide. However, in Australia, although much attention is being devoted to the medium- to large-scale dams, minimal attention is being paid to the serious potential problems associated with smaller dams, particularly the potential cumulative safety threats they pose ...

  12. Cumulative Beam Breakup due to Resistive-Wall Wake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, J.-M.

    2004-01-01

    The cumulative beam breakup problem excited by the resistive-wall wake is formulated. An approximate analytic method of finding the asymptotic behavior for the transverse bunch displacement is developed and solved. Comparison between the asymptotic analytical expression and the direct numerical solution is presented. Good agreement is found. The criterion of using the asymptotic analytical expression is discussed

  13. Analysis of sensory ratings data with cumulative link models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen; Brockhoff, Per B.

    2013-01-01

    Examples of categorical rating scales include discrete preference, liking and hedonic rating scales. Data obtained on these scales are often analyzed with normal linear regression methods or with omnibus Pearson chi2 tests. In this paper we propose to use cumulative link models that allow for reg...

  14. Tests of Cumulative Prospect Theory with graphical displays of probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Birnbaum

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research reported evidence that contradicts cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic. The same body of research also violates two editing principles of original prospect theory: cancellation (the principle that people delete any attribute that is the same in both alternatives before deciding between them and combination (the principle that people combine branches leading to the same consequence by adding their probabilities. This study was designed to replicate previous results and to test whether the violations of cumulative prospect theory might be eliminated or reduced by using formats for presentation of risky gambles in which cancellation and combination could be facilitated visually. Contrary to the idea that decision behavior contradicting cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic would be altered by use of these formats, however, data with two new graphical formats as well as fresh replication data continued to show the patterns of evidence that violate cumulative prospect theory, the priority heuristic, and the editing principles of combination and cancellation. Systematic violations of restricted branch independence also contradicted predictions of ``stripped'' prospect theory (subjectively weighted additive utility without the editing rules.

  15. Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

    2018-06-01

    Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nilsson, H.; Rieskamp, J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2011-01-01

    Cumulative prospect theory (CPT Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) has provided one of the most influential accounts of how people make decisions under risk. CPT is a formal model with parameters that quantify psychological processes such as loss aversion, subjective values of gains and losses, and

  17. An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory for Decision under Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Chateauneuf, A.

    1999-01-01

    Cumulative prospect theory was introduced by Tversky and Kahneman so as to combine the empirical realism of their original prospect theory with the theoretical advantages of Quiggin's rank-dependent utility. Preference axiomatizations were provided in several papers. All those axiomatizations,

  18. Cumulative assessment: does it improve students’ knowledge acquisition and retention?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cecilio Fernandes, Dario; Nagtegaal, Manouk; Noordzij, Gera; Tio, Rene

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Assessment for learning means changing students’ behaviour regarding their learning. Cumulative assessment has been shown to increase students’ self-study time and spread their study time throughout a course. However, there was no difference regarding students’ knowledge at the end of

  19. Cumulative organic anion transporter-mediated drug-drug interaction potential of multiple components in salvia miltiorrhiza (danshen) preparations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li; Venitz, Jürgen; Sweet, Douglas H

    2014-12-01

    To evaluate organic anion transporter-mediated drug-drug interaction (DDI) potential for individual active components of Danshen (Salvia miltiorrhiza) vs. combinations using in vitro and in silico approaches. Inhibition profiles for single Danshen components and combinations were generated in stably-expressing human (h)OAT1 and hOAT3 cells. Plasma concentration-time profiles for compounds were estimated from in vivo human data using an i.v. two-compartment model (with first-order elimination). The cumulative DDI index was proposed as an indicator of DDI potential for combination products. This index was used to evaluate the DDI potential for Danshen injectables from 16 different manufacturers and 14 different lots from a single manufacturer. The cumulative DDI index predicted in vivo inhibition potentials, 82% (hOAT1) and 74% (hOAT3), comparable with those observed in vitro, 72 ± 7% (hOAT1) and 81 ± 10% (hOAT3), for Danshen component combinations. Using simulated unbound Cmax values, a wide range in cumulative DDI index between manufacturers, and between lots, was predicted. Many products exhibited a cumulative DDI index > 1 (50% inhibition). Danshen injectables will likely exhibit strong potential to inhibit hOAT1 and hOAT3 function in vivo. The proposed cumulative DDI index might improve prediction of DDI potential of herbal medicines or pharmaceutical preparations containing multiple components.

  20. The incidence of anxiety and depression among employees--the role of psychosocial work characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrea, Helene; Bültmann, Ute; van Amelsvoort, Ludovic G P M; Kant, Ymert

    2009-01-01

    Anxiety and depression are prevalent among employees and are associated with functional disability and work impairment. To date, little is known about the incidence and possible risk factors for developing anxiety and depression in the working population. Study aims were to (a) determine the incidence of subclinical anxiety and depression in a general working population and (b) identify the psychosocial work characteristics associated with the onset of subclinical anxiety and depression. This prospective study is based on 3,707 employees participating in the Maastricht Cohort Study on Fatigue at Work. Psychosocial work characteristics were measured in May 2000; anxiety and depression were measured with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale in April 2002. The cumulative 23-month incidence for subclinical anxiety and depression was 4.6 and 3.3%, respectively. High psychological job demands increased the risk for both subsequent anxiety and depression. Moreover, low social support was predictive for the onset of anxiety, whereas job insecurity increased the risk for the onset of depression. These prospective associations were independent of potential confounding variables and the other psychosocial work characteristics. Adverse psychosocial work characteristics are significant predictors for the onset of subclinical anxiety and depression in the general working population. These findings encourage intervention studies testing whether modifying the psychosocial work environment reduces both anxiety and depressive symptoms among employees.

  1. Cumulative trauma and current posttraumatic stress disorder status in general population and inmate samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briere, John; Agee, Elisha; Dietrich, Anne

    2016-07-01

    This research was undertaken to examine the role between cumulative exposure to different types of traumatic events and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) status in general population and prison samples. Two archival datasets were examined: the standardization sample for the Detailed Assessment of Posttraumatic States (DAPS; Briere, 2001), and data from a study on trauma and posttraumatic sequelae among inmates and others. PTSD was found in 4% of the general population sample and 48% of the prison sample. Trauma exposure was very common among prisoners, including a 70% rate of childhood sexual abuse for women and a 50% rate for men. Lifetime number of different types of trauma was associated with PTSD in both the general population and prison samples, even when controlling for the effects of sexual trauma. Cumulative interpersonal trauma predicted PTSD, whereas cumulative noninterpersonal trauma did not. In the general population sample, participants who had only 1 type of trauma exposure had a 0% likelihood of current PTSD, whereas those with 6 or more other trauma types had a 12% likelihood. In the prison sample, those with only 1 type of trauma exposure had a 17% percent likelihood of current PTSD, whereas those exposed to 6 or more other trauma types had a 64% chance of PTSD. Cumulative trauma predicts current PTSD in both general population and prison samples, even after controlling for sexual trauma. PTSD appears to develop generally as a function of exposure to multiple types of interpersonal trauma, as opposed to a single traumatic event. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Early cumulative risk predicts externalizing behavior at age 10: The mediating role of adverse parenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gach, Emily J; Ip, Ka I; Sameroff, Arnold J; Olson, Sheryl L

    2018-02-01

    Multiple environmental risk factors in early childhood predict a broad range of adverse developmental outcomes. However, most prior longitudinal research has not illuminated explanatory mechanisms. Our main goals were to examine predictive associations between cumulative ecological risk factors in early childhood and children's later externalizing problems and to determine whether these associations were explained by variations in parenting quality. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) at risk for school-age conduct problems and their parents and teachers. Children were approximately 3 years old at Time 1 (T1) and 10 years old at Time 2 (T2). Reports of contextual risk at T1 were used to develop a cumulative risk index consisting of 6 singular risk variables from 3 ecological levels: social resources (low income; social isolation), family resources (marital aggression; poor total family functioning), and maternal resources (single parent status; poor maternal mental health). At T1, parenting variables were measured (corporal punishment, warm responsiveness, maternal efficacy, and negative perceptions of child behavior). At T2, mothers, fathers, and teachers reported child externalizing problems. Johnson's relative weight analysis revealed that the cumulative risk index was a more powerful predictor of age 10 years externalizing behavior than any of the singular contextual risk variables. Adverse parenting mediated the effects of cumulative risk on later child externalizing problems. Our findings have significant implications for understanding long-term effects of multiple contextual risk factors present in early childhood and for the implementation of positive parenting interventions early on. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foley, Melissa M., E-mail: mfoley@usgs.gov [U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, 400 Natural Bridges, Dr., Santa Cruz, CA 95060 (United States); Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 99 Pacific St., Monterey, CA 93940 (United States); Mease, Lindley A., E-mail: lamease@stanford.edu [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Martone, Rebecca G., E-mail: rmartone@stanford.edu [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 99 Pacific St., Monterey, CA 93940 (United States); Prahler, Erin E. [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Morrison, Tiffany H., E-mail: tiffany.morrison@jcu.edu.au [ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811 (Australia); Murray, Cathryn Clarke, E-mail: cmurray@pices.int [WWF-Canada, 409 Granville Street, Suite 1588, Vancouver, BC V6C 1T2 (Canada); Wojcik, Deborah, E-mail: deb.wojcik@duke.edu [Nicholas School for the Environment, Duke University, 9 Circuit Dr., Durham, NC 27708 (United States)

    2017-01-15

    The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

  4. The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Prahler, Erin E.; Morrison, Tiffany H.; Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Wojcik, Deborah

    2017-01-01

    The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

  5. The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A; Martone, Rebecca G; Prahler, Erin E; Morrison, Tiffany H; Clarke Murray, Cathryn; Wojcik, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

  6. Measurement of four-particle cumulants and symmetric cumulants with subevent methods in small collision systems with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Derendarz, Dominik; The ATLAS collaboration

    2018-01-01

    Measurements of symmetric cumulants SC(n,m)=⟨v2nv2m⟩−⟨v2n⟩⟨v2m⟩ for (n,m)=(2,3) and (2,4) and asymmetric cumulant AC(n) are presented in pp, p+Pb and peripheral Pb+Pb collisions at various collision energies, aiming to probe the long-range collective nature of multi-particle production in small systems. Results are obtained using the standard cumulant method, as well as the two-subevent and three-subevent cumulant methods. Results from the standard method are found to be strongly biased by non-flow correlations as indicated by strong sensitivity to the chosen event class definition. A systematic reduction of non-flow effects is observed when using the two-subevent method and the results become independent of event class definition when the three-subevent method is used. The measured SC(n,m) shows an anti-correlation between v2 and v3, and a positive correlation between v2 and v4. The magnitude of SC(n,m) is constant with Nch in pp collisions, but increases with Nch in p+Pb and Pb+Pb collisions. ...

  7. Increased Incidence of Critical Illness in Psoriasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrie, Ruth Ann; Bernstein, Charles N; Peschken, Christine A; Hitchon, Carol A; Chen, Hui; Garland, Allan

    Psoriasis is associated with an increased risk of comorbid disease. Despite the recognition of increased morbidity in psoriasis, the effects on health care utilisation remain incompletely understood. Little is known about the risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission in persons with psoriasis. To compare the incidence of ICU admission and post-ICU mortality rates in a psoriasis population compared with a matched population without psoriasis. Using population-based administrative data from Manitoba, Canada, we identified 40 930 prevalent cases of psoriasis and an age-, sex-, and geographically matched cohort from the general population (n = 150 210). We compared the incidence of ICU admission between populations using incidence rates and Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and comorbidity and compared mortality after ICU admission. Among incident psoriasis cases (n = 30 150), the cumulative 10-year incidence of ICU admission was 5.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.3%-5.8%), 21% higher than in the matched cohort (incidence rate ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.15-1.27). In the prevalent psoriasis cohort, crude mortality in the ICU was 11.5% (95% CI, 9.9%-13.0%), 32% higher than observed in the matched population admitted to the ICU (8.7%; 95% CI, 8.3%-9.1%). Mortality rates after ICU admission remained elevated at all time points in the psoriasis cohort compared with the matched cohort. Psoriasis is associated with an increased risk for ICU admission and with an increased risk of mortality post-ICU admission.

  8. [Assessment on the ecological suitability in Zhuhai City, Guangdong, China, based on minimum cumulative resistance model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jian-fei; Li, Lin; Guo, Luo; Du, Shi-hong

    2016-01-01

    Urban landscape has the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity. Because the expansion process of urban constructive or ecological land has different resistance values, the land unit stimulates and promotes the expansion of ecological land with different intensity. To compare the effect of promoting and hindering functions in the same land unit, we firstly compared the minimum cumulative resistance value of promoting and hindering functions, and then looked for the balance of two landscape processes under the same standard. According to the ecology principle of minimum limit factor, taking the minimum cumulative resistance analysis method under two expansion processes as the evaluation method of urban land ecological suitability, this research took Zhuhai City as the study area to estimate urban ecological suitability by relative evaluation method with remote sensing image, field survey, and statistics data. With the support of ArcGIS, five types of indicators on landscape types, ecological value, soil erosion sensitivity, sensitivity of geological disasters, and ecological function were selected as input parameters in the minimum cumulative resistance model to compute urban ecological suitability. The results showed that the ecological suitability of the whole Zhuhai City was divided into five levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (10.1%), constructive expansion restricted zone (32.9%), key construction zone (36.3%), priority development zone (2.3%), and basic cropland (18.4%). Ecological suitability of the central area of Zhuhai City was divided into four levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (11.6%), constructive expansion restricted zone (25.6%), key construction zone (52.4%), priority development zone (10.4%). Finally, we put forward the sustainable development framework of Zhuhai City according to the research conclusion. On one hand, the government should strictly control the development of the urban center area. On the other hand, the

  9. Checking Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards model with cumulative sums of residuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas; Zhang, Mei Jie

    2015-01-01

    Recently, Fine and Gray (J Am Stat Assoc 94:496–509, 1999) proposed a semi-parametric proportional regression model for the subdistribution hazard function which has been used extensively for analyzing competing risks data. However, failure of model adequacy could lead to severe bias in parameter...... estimation, and only a limited contribution has been made to check the model assumptions. In this paper, we present a class of analytical methods and graphical approaches for checking the assumptions of Fine and Gray’s model. The proposed goodness-of-fit test procedures are based on the cumulative sums...

  10. Fragmentation of 7-9 GeV/c deuterons into cumulative kaons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afanas'ev, S.V.; Zolin, L.S.; Isupov, A.Yu.; Ladygin, V.P.; Litvinenko, A.G.; Reznikov, S.G.; Khrenov, A.N.

    2013-01-01

    Data of kaon production in the reaction d + Be → K ∓ (0°) + X in the x c cumulative variable region from 0.88 to 1.37 are presented. The x c ≥ 1 values correspond to internucleon distances (the deuteron core region), where the nucleon wave functions begin to overlap forming the hadron cluster ('flucton') with density above the average one of nuclear matter. The behaviour of K + and K - yields ratio in this x c region can be interpreted within the framework of hypothesis of the hard quark sea increasing in nuclei due to flucton component presence in the nuclear matter

  11. Fragmentation of tensor polarized deuterons into cumulative pions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afanas'ev, S.; Arkhipov, V.; Bondarev, V.

    1998-01-01

    The tensor analyzing power T 20 of the reaction d polarized + A → π - (0 0 ) + X has been measured in the fragmentation of 9 GeV tensor polarized deuterons into pions with momenta from 3.5 to 5.3 GeV/c on hydrogen, beryllium and carbon targets. This kinematic range corresponds to the region of cumulative hadron production with the cumulative variable x c from 1.08 to 1.76. The values of T 20 have been found to be small and consistent with positive values. This contradicts the predictions based on a direct mechanism assuming NN collision between a high momentum nucleon in the deuteron and a target nucleon (NN → NNπ)

  12. Experience of cumulative effects assessment in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piper Jake

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Cumulative effects assessment (CEA is a development of environmental impact assessment which attempts to take into account the wider picture of what impacts may affect the environment as a result of either multiple or linear projects, or development plans. CEA is seen as a further valuable tool in promoting sustainable development. The broader canvas upon which the assessment is made leads to a suite of issues such as complexity in methods and assessment of significance, the desirability of co-operation between developers and other parties, new ways of addressing mitigation and monitoring. After outlining the legislative position and the process of CEA, this paper looks at three cases studies in the UK where cumulative assessment has been carried out - the cases concern wind farms, major infrastructure and off-shore developments.

  13. Cancer incidence among waiters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reijula, Jere; Kjaerheim, Kristina; Lynge, Elsebeth

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: To study cancer risk patterns among waiters in the Nordic countries. METHODS: We identified a cohort of 16,134 male and 81,838 female waiters from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. During the follow-up period from 1961 to 2005, we found that 19,388 incident cancer cases were...... diagnosed. Standardised incidence ratio (SIR) was defined as the observed number of cancer cases divided by the expected number, based on national age, time period and gender-specific cancer incidence rates in the general population. RESULTS: The SIR of all cancers in waiters, in the five countries combined...... INCIDENCE IN SOME CANCER SITES CAN LIKELY BE EXPLAINED BY HIGHER ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION, THE PREVALENCE OF SMOKING AND OCCUPATIONAL EXPOSURE TO TOBACCO SMOKE HOPEFULLY, THE INCIDENCE OF CANCER AMONG WAITERS WILL DECREASE IN THE FUTURE, DUE TO THE BANNING OF TOBACCO SMOKING IN RESTAURANTS AND BARS IN THE NORDIC...

  14. Polarization in high Psub(trans) and cumulative hadron production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efremov, A.V.

    1978-01-01

    The final hadron polarization in the high Psub(trans) processes is analyzed in the parton hard scattering picture. Scaling assumption allows a correct qualitative description to be given for the Psub(trans)-behaviour of polarization or escape angle behaviour in cumulative production. The energy scaling and weak dependence on the beam and target type is predicted. A method is proposed for measuring the polarization of hadron jets

  15. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

    2017-07-01

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

  16. Firm heterogeneity, Rules of Origin and Rules of Cumulation

    OpenAIRE

    Bombarda , Pamela; Gamberoni , Elisa

    2013-01-01

    We analyse the impact of relaxing rules of origin (ROOs) in a simple setting with heterogeneous firms that buy intermediate inputs from domestic and foreign sources. In particular, we consider the impact of switching from bilateral to diagonal cumulation when using preferences (instead of paying the MFN tariff) involving the respect of rules of origin. We find that relaxing the restrictiveness of the ROOs leads the least productive exporters to stop exporting. The empirical part confirms thes...

  17. Severe occupational hand eczema, job stress and cumulative sickness absence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böhm, D; Stock Gissendanner, S; Finkeldey, F; John, S M; Werfel, T; Diepgen, T L; Breuer, K

    2014-10-01

    Stress is known to activate or exacerbate dermatoses, but the relationships between chronic stress, job-related stress and sickness absence among occupational hand eczema (OHE) patients are inadequately understood. To see whether chronic stress or burnout symptoms were associated with cumulative sickness absence in patients with OHE and to determine which factors predicted sickness absence in a model including measures of job-related and chronic stress. We investigated correlations of these factors in employed adult inpatients with a history of sickness absence due to OHE in a retrospective cross-sectional explorative study, which assessed chronic stress (Trier Inventory for the Assessment of Chronic Stress), burnout (Shirom Melamed Burnout Measure), clinical symptom severity (Osnabrück Hand Eczema Severity Index), perceived symptom severity, demographic characteristics and cumulative days of sickness absence. The study group consisted of 122 patients. OHE symptoms were not more severe among patients experiencing greater stress and burnout. Women reported higher levels of chronic stress on some measures. Cumulative days of sickness absence correlated with individual dimensions of job-related stress and, in multiple regression analysis, with an overall measure of chronic stress. Chronic stress is an additional factor predicting cumulative sickness absence among severely affected OHE patients. Other relevant factors for this study sample included the 'cognitive weariness' subscale of the Shirom Melamed Burnout Measure and the physical component summary score of the SF-36, a measure of health-related life quality. Prevention and rehabilitation should take job stress into consideration in multidisciplinary treatment strategies for severely affected OHE patients. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Science and Societal Partnerships to Address Cumulative Impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Lundquist, Carolyn J.; Fisher, Karen T.; Le Heron, Richard; Lewis, Nick I.; Ellis, Joanne I.; Hewitt, Judi E.; Greenaway, Alison J.; Cartner, Katie J.; Burgess-Jones, Tracey C.; Schiel, David R.; Thrush, Simon F.

    2016-01-01

    Funding and priorities for ocean research are not separate from the underlying sociological, economic, and political landscapes that determine values attributed to ecological systems. Here we present a variation on science prioritization exercises, focussing on inter-disciplinary research questions with the objective of shifting broad scale management practices to better address cumulative impacts and multiple users. Marine scientists in New Zealand from a broad range of scientific and social...

  19. Cumulative prospect theory and mean variance analysis. A rigorous comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Hens, Thorsten; Mayer, Janos

    2012-01-01

    We compare asset allocations derived for cumulative prospect theory(CPT) based on two different methods: Maximizing CPT along the mean–variance efficient frontier and maximizing it without that restriction. We find that with normally distributed returns the difference is negligible. However, using standard asset allocation data of pension funds the difference is considerable. Moreover, with derivatives like call options the restriction to the mean-variance efficient frontier results in a siza...

  20. Signal anomaly detection using modified CUSUM [cumulative sum] method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenstern, V.; Upadhyaya, B.R.; Benedetti, M.

    1988-01-01

    An important aspect of detection of anomalies in signals is the identification of changes in signal behavior caused by noise, jumps, changes in band-width, sudden pulses and signal bias. A methodology is developed to identify, isolate and characterize these anomalies using a modification of the cumulative sum (CUSUM) approach. The new algorithm performs anomaly detection at three levels and is implemented on a general purpose computer. 7 refs., 4 figs

  1. Radiological incidents in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hobzova, L.; Novotny, J.

    2008-01-01

    In many countries a reporting system of radiological incidents to national regulatory body exists and providers of radiotherapy treatment are obliged to report all major and/or in some countries all incidents occurring in institution. State Office for Nuclear Safety (SONS) is providing a systematic guidance for radiotherapy departments from 1997 by requiring inclusion of radiation safety problems into Quality assurance manual, which is the basic document for obtaining a license of SONS for handling with sources of ionizing radiation. For that purpose SONS also issued the recommendation 'Introduction of QA system for important sources in radiotherapy-radiological incidents' in which the radiological incidents are defined and the basic guidance for their classification (category A, B, C, D), investigation and reporting are given. At regular periods the SONS in co-operation with radiotherapy centers is making a survey of all radiological incidents occurring in institutions and it is presenting obtained information in synoptic communication (2003 Motolske dny, 2005 Novy Jicin). This presentation is another summary report of radiological incidents that occurred in our radiotherapy institutions during last 3 years. Emphasis is given not only to survey and statistics, but also to analysis of reasons of the radiological incidents and to their detection and prevention. Analyses of incidents in radiotherapy have led to a much broader understanding of incident causation. Information about the error should be shared as early as possible during or after investigation by all radiotherapy centers. Learning from incidents, errors and near misses should be a part of improvement of the QA system in institutions. Generally, it is recommended that all radiotherapy facilities should participate in the reporting, analyzing and learning system to facilitate the dissemination of knowledge throughout the whole country to prevent errors in radiotherapy.(authors)

  2. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret M. MacDonell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

  3. Preference, resistance to change, and the cumulative decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Randolph C

    2018-01-01

    According to behavioral momentum theory (Nevin & Grace, 2000a), preference in concurrent chains and resistance to change in multiple schedules are independent measures of a common construct representing reinforcement history. Here I review the original studies on preference and resistance to change in which reinforcement variables were manipulated parametrically, conducted by Nevin, Grace and colleagues between 1997 and 2002, as well as more recent research. The cumulative decision model proposed by Grace and colleagues for concurrent chains is shown to provide a good account of both preference and resistance to change, and is able to predict the increased sensitivity to reinforcer rate and magnitude observed with constant-duration components. Residuals from fits of the cumulative decision model to preference and resistance to change data were positively correlated, supporting the prediction of behavioral momentum theory. Although some questions remain, the learning process assumed by the cumulative decision model, in which outcomes are compared against a criterion that represents the average outcome value in the current context, may provide a plausible model for the acquisition of differential resistance to change. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  4. Stakeholder attitudes towards cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeke, Wim; Van Loo, Ellen J; Vanhonacker, Filiep; Delcour, Ilse; Spanoghe, Pieter; van Klaveren, Jacob D

    2015-05-01

    This study evaluates the attitudes and perspectives of different stakeholder groups (agricultural producers, pesticide manufacturers, trading companies, retailers, regulators, food safety authorities, scientists and NGOs) towards the concepts of cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides by means of qualitative in-depth interviews (n = 15) and a quantitative stakeholder survey (n = 65). The stakeholders involved generally agreed that the use of chemical pesticides is needed, primarily for meeting the need of feeding the growing world population, while clearly acknowledging the problematic nature of human exposure to pesticide residues. Current monitoring was generally perceived to be adequate, but the timeliness and consistency of monitoring practices across countries were questioned. The concept of cumulative exposure assessment was better understood by stakeholders than the concept of aggregate exposure assessment. Identified pitfalls were data availability, data limitations, sources and ways of dealing with uncertainties, as well as information and training needs. Regulators and food safety authorities were perceived as the stakeholder groups for whom cumulative and aggregate pesticide exposure assessment methods and tools would be most useful and acceptable. Insights obtained from this exploratory study have been integrated in the development of targeted and stakeholder-tailored dissemination and training programmes that were implemented within the EU-FP7 project ACROPOLIS. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Evolution of costly explicit memory and cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamaru, Mayuko

    2016-06-21

    Humans can acquire new information and modify it (cumulative culture) based on their learning and memory abilities, especially explicit memory, through the processes of encoding, consolidation, storage, and retrieval. Explicit memory is categorized into semantic and episodic memories. Animals have semantic memory, while episodic memory is unique to humans and essential for innovation and the evolution of culture. As both episodic and semantic memory are needed for innovation, the evolution of explicit memory influences the evolution of culture. However, previous theoretical studies have shown that environmental fluctuations influence the evolution of imitation (social learning) and innovation (individual learning) and assume that memory is not an evolutionary trait. If individuals can store and retrieve acquired information properly, they can modify it and innovate new information. Therefore, being able to store and retrieve information is essential from the perspective of cultural evolution. However, if both storage and retrieval were too costly, forgetting and relearning would have an advantage over storing and retrieving acquired information. In this study, using mathematical analysis and individual-based simulations, we investigate whether cumulative culture can promote the coevolution of costly memory and social and individual learning, assuming that cumulative culture improves the fitness of each individual. The conclusions are: (1) without cumulative culture, a social learning cost is essential for the evolution of storage-retrieval. Costly storage-retrieval can evolve with individual learning but costly social learning does not evolve. When low-cost social learning evolves, the repetition of forgetting and learning is favored more than the evolution of costly storage-retrieval, even though a cultural trait improves the fitness. (2) When cumulative culture exists and improves fitness, storage-retrieval can evolve with social and/or individual learning, which

  6. El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dugand Armando

    1944-03-01

    Full Text Available Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin duda alguna al A. Dugandii StandI. Por otra parte, Santiago Cortés (FI. Colomb. 206. 1898; ed, 2: 239. 1912 cita el Cumulá "de Anapoima y otros lugares del (rio Magdalena" diciendo que pertenece a las Leguminosas, pero la brevísima descripción que este autor hace de la madera "naranjada y notable por densidad, dureza y resistencia a la humedad", me induce a creer que se trata del mismo Cumula coleccionado recientemente en Tocaima, ya que esta población esta situada a pocos kilómetros de Anapoima. Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin

  7. Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary, Annual Report 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Roegner, Curtis; Thom, Ronald M.; Dawley, Earl M.; Whiting, Allan H.; Johnson, Gary E.; Sobocinski, Kathryn L.; Anderson, Michael G.; Ebberts, Blaine

    2005-12-15

    The restoration of wetland salmon habitat in the tidal portion of the Columbia River is occurring at an accelerating pace and is anticipated to improve habitat quality and effect hydrological reconnection between existing and restored habitats. Currently multiple groups are applying a variety of restoration strategies in an attempt to emulate historic estuarine processes. However, the region lacks both a standardized means of evaluating the effectiveness of individual projects as well as methods for determining the cumulative effects of all restoration projects on a regional scale. This project is working to establish a framework to evaluate individual and cumulative ecosystem responses to restoration activities in order to validate the effectiveness of habitat restoration activities designed to benefit salmon through improvements to habitat quality and habitat opportunity (i.e. access) in the Columbia River from Bonneville Dam to the ocean. The review and synthesis of approaches to measure the cumulative effects of multiple restoration projects focused on defining methods and metrics of relevance to the CRE, and, in particular, juvenile salmon use of this system. An extensive literature review found no previous study assessing the cumulative effects of multiple restoration projects on the fundamental processes and functions of a large estuarine system, although studies are underway in other large land-margin ecosystems including the Florida Everglades and the Louisiana coastal wetlands. Literature from a variety of scientific disciplines was consulted to identify the ways that effects can accumulate (e.g., delayed effects, cross-boundary effects, compounding effects, indirect effects, triggers and thresholds) as well as standard and innovative tools and methods utilized in cumulative effects analyses: conceptual models, matrices, checklists, modeling, trends analysis, geographic information systems, carrying capacity analysis, and ecosystem analysis. Potential

  8. MORSEC-SP, Step Function Angular Distribution for Cross-Sections Calculation by Program MORSE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: MORSEC-SP allows one to utilize a step distribution to describe the angular dependence of the multi- group function in the MORSEC cross section module of the MORSE Monte Carlo code. The step distribution is always non-negative and may be used in the random walk and for making point detector estimators. 2 - Method of solution: MORSEC-SP utilizes a table look up procedure to provide the probability of scattering when making point detector estimates for a given incident energy group and scattering angle. In the random walk, the step distributions are converted to cumulative distributions and an angle of scatter is selected from the cumulative distributions. Step distributions are obtained from calculation using the converted moments from the given Legendre coefficients of the scattering distributions. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Additional coding to the MORSEC module is variable dimensional and fully incorporated into blank common

  9. Incidence of cervical cancer after several negative smear results by age 50: prospective observational study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rebolj, Matejka; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Lynge, Elsebeth

    2009-01-01

    /100,000 (95% confidence interval 33 to 51) in the younger group and 36/100,000 (24 to 52) in the older group (P=0.48). The cumulative incidence rate of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade I+ was twice as high in the younger than in the older group (Pcervical cancer......OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of cervical cancer after several negative cervical smear tests at different ages. DESIGN: Prospective observational study of incidence of cervical cancer after the third consecutive negative result based on individual level data in a national registry...... of histopathology and cytopathology (PALGA). SETTING: Netherlands, national data. Population 218,847 women aged 45-54 and 445,382 aged 30-44 at the time of the third negative smear test. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 10 year cumulative incidence of interval cervical cancer. RESULTS: 105 women developed cervical cancer...

  10. Cumulative effective dose associated with computed tomography examinations in adolescent trauma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Seung Joon; Kim, Eun Young; Kim, Hyung Sik; Choi, Hye-Young; Cho, Jinseong; Yang, Hyuk Jun; Chung, Yong Eun

    2014-07-01

    The aims of this study were to analyze cumulative effective dose (cED) and to assess lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of cancer due to radiation exposure during computed tomography (CT) examinations in adolescent trauma patients. Between January 2010 and May 2011, the adolescent patients with trauma were enrolled in this study. Numbers of CT examinations and body regions examined were collated, and cEDs were calculated using dose-length product values and conversion factors. Lifetime attributable risk for cancer incidence and cancer-associated mortality were quantified based on the studies of survivors of the atomic bombs on Japan. Data were stratified according to severity of trauma: minor trauma, injury severity score of less than 16; and major trauma, injury severity score of 16 or greater. A total of 698 CT scans were obtained on the following regions of 484 adolescent patients: head CT, n = 647; rest of the body, n = 41; and thorax, n = 10. Mean cED per patient was 3.4 mSv, and mean LARs for cancer incidence and mortality were 0.05% and 0.02%, respectively. The majority of patients (98.4%) experienced minor trauma, and their mean cED and LARs for cancer incidence and mortality (3.0 mSv and 0.04% and 0.02%, respectively) were significantly lower than those of patients with major trauma (24.3 mSv and 0.31% and 0.15%, respectively, all P values trauma was found to be relatively low in adolescent patients. However, adolescent patients with major trauma were exposed to a substantial amount of radiation during multiple CT examinations.

  11. Incidence of urinary bladder tumors in the control Beagle dog population at the Inhalation Toxicology Research Institute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, R.R.; Kusewitt, D.F.; Hahn, F.F.; Muggenburg, B.A.

    1982-01-01

    The report reviews the incidence and types of urinary bladder tumors in 94 dogs that have died in a population of 250 control dogs (median life span 14.0 years). Six bladder tumors, two papillomas and four transitional cell carcinomas, were found. The cumulative incidence for bladder tumors was 10.5 percent at 16 to 19 years of age; this was a 20 percent age-specific incidence

  12. Police Incident Blotter (Archive)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — The Police Blotter Archive contains crime incident data after it has been validated and processed to meet Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) standards, published on a...

  13. 2011 Japanese Nuclear Incident

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s RadNet system monitored the environmental radiation levels in the United States and parts of the Pacific following the Japanese Nuclear Incident. Learn about EPA’s response and view historical laboratory data and news releases.

  14. Prediction of Safety Incidents

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Safety incidents, including injuries, property damage and mission failures, cost NASA and contractors thousands of dollars in direct and indirect costs. This project...

  15. Marine Animal Incident Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Large whale stranding, death, ship strike and entanglement incidents are all recorded to monitor the health of each population and track anthropogenic factors that...

  16. Acute incidents during anaesthesia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    management of acute incidents and the prevention of ... High or total (complete) spinal blocks in obstetric .... Pain and opioid analgesics lead to delayed ... Step up postoperative care and use ... recognise suprasternal and supraclavicular.

  17. Mismatch or cumulative stress : Toward an integrated hypothesis of programming effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nederhof, Esther; Schmidt, Mathias V.

    2012-01-01

    This paper integrates the cumulative stress hypothesis with the mismatch hypothesis, taking into account individual differences in sensitivity to programming. According to the cumulative stress hypothesis, individuals are more likely to suffer from disease as adversity accumulates. According to the

  18. Ecological correlates of multiple sexual partnerships among adolescents and young adults in urban Cape Town: a cumulative risk factor approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muchiri, Evans; Odimegwu, Clifford; Banda, Pamela; Ntoimo, Lorreta; Adedini, Sunday

    2017-07-01

    Studies in South Africa have reported unsafe levels of risky sexual behvaiours among adolescents and young adults, with the country reporting the highest burden of HIV/AIDS globally, as well as a high rate of teenage pregnancy. While determinants of risky sexual behaviours have been investigated for factors occurring at the individual and household levels, not fully explored in the literature is the effect of community level factors. Furthermore, it is unclear whether risk factors occurring within the ecology of adolescents and young adults act cumulatively to influence their sexual practices. This article aims to address this knowledge gap using a case study of the Cape Area Panel Study of adolescents and young adults in urban Cape Town, South Africa. The ecological framework was adopted to guide the selection of risk factors at the individual, household, and community levels. Multivariate linear discriminant function analyses were used to select significant risk factors for multiple sexual partnerships and used to produce risk indices for the respondents. The cumulative risk approach was applied to test whether significant risk factors acted cumulatively. Findings point to the importance of ecological factors in influencing outcomes of multiple sexual partnerships among respondents and further demonstrate that ecological risk factors may act cumulatively. These findings are important for South Africa that is grappling with teenage pregnancy and disproportionate HIV epidemic among the youth.

  19. Cumulative nucleon production in 3Hep- and 3Hp interactions at momenta of colliding nuclei 5 GeV/c

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdullin, S.K.; Blinov, A.V.; Vanyushin, I.A.

    1989-01-01

    Inclusive cross sections of cumulative protons produced in 3 Hep- and 3 Hp-interactions under momenta of colliding 5 GeV/c nuclei are investigated. Experimental material is obtained using liquid-hydrogen ITEP chamber-80cm. Under the cumulative proton kinetic energy, exceeding 50 MeV inclusive cross section ratio σ( 3 Hep→pX)/σ( 3 Hp→pX)=1.6±0.1. Within the same energy interval evaluation of yield ratio of cumulative protons and neutrons, produced in 3 Hep -interactions, leads to ∼ 1.6 value. Asymmetry of mean multiple protons escaping forward and backward both in 3 Hep -and in 3 Hp interactions is observed. Averaged invariant distribution functions for cumulative protons and neutrons in 8 Hep-interactions and protons in 3 Hp-interactions are constructed (the averaging is performed within 90-180 deg and 120-180 deg intervals). To temperatures of such distributions are found. 43 refs.; 1 fig

  20. Science and societal partnerships to address cumulative impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolyn J Lundquist

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Funding and priorities for ocean research are not separate from the underlying sociological, economic, and political landscapes that determine values attributed to ecological systems. Here we present a variation on science prioritisation exercises, focussing on inter-disciplinary research questions with the objective of shifting broad scale management practices to better address cumulative impacts and multiple users. Marine scientists in New Zealand from a broad range of scientific and social-scientific backgrounds ranked 48 statements of research priorities. At a follow up workshop, participants discussed five over-arching themes based on survey results. These themes were used to develop mechanisms to increase the relevance and efficiency of scientific research while acknowledging socio-economic and political drivers of research agendas in New Zealand’s ocean ecosystems. Overarching messages included the need to: 1 determine the conditions under which ‘surprises’ (sudden and substantive undesirable changes are likely to occur and the socio-ecological implications of such changes; 2 develop methodologies to reveal the complex and cumulative effects of change in marine systems, and their implications for resource use, stewardship, and restoration; 3 assess potential solutions to management issues that balance long-term and short-term benefits and encompass societal engagement in decision-making; 4 establish effective and appropriately resourced institutional networks to foster collaborative, solution-focused marine science; and 5 establish cross-disciplinary dialogues to translate diverse scientific and social-scientific knowledge into innovative regulatory, social and economic practice. In the face of multiple uses and cumulative stressors, ocean management frameworks must be adapted to build a collaborative framework across science, governance and society that can help stakeholders navigate uncertainties and socio-ecological surprises.

  1. Cumulative risk hypothesis: Predicting and preventing child maltreatment recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, David; Åsberg, Kia; Peer, Samuel; Prince, Gwendolyn

    2016-08-01

    Although Child Protective Services (CPS) and other child welfare agencies aim to prevent further maltreatment in cases of child abuse and neglect, recidivism is common. Having a better understanding of recidivism predictors could aid in preventing additional instances of maltreatment. A previous study identified two CPS interventions that predicted recidivism: psychotherapy for the parent, which was related to a reduced risk of recidivism, and temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody, which was related to an increased recidivism risk. However, counter to expectations, this previous study did not identify any other specific risk factors related to maltreatment recidivism. For the current study, it was hypothesized that (a) cumulative risk (i.e., the total number of risk factors) would significantly predict maltreatment recidivism above and beyond intervention variables in a sample of CPS case files and that (b) therapy for the parent would be related to a reduced likelihood of recidivism. Because it was believed that the relation between temporary removal of a child from the parent's custody and maltreatment recidivism is explained by cumulative risk, the study also hypothesized that that the relation between temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody and recidivism would be mediated by cumulative risk. After performing a hierarchical logistic regression analysis, the first two hypotheses were supported, and an additional predictor, psychotherapy for the child, also was related to reduced chances of recidivism. However, Hypothesis 3 was not supported, as risk did not significantly mediate the relation between temporary removal and recidivism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Cumulative exposure to phthalates from phthalate-containing drug products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ennis, Zandra Nymand; Broe, Anne; Pottegård, Anton

    2018-01-01

    European regulatory limit of exposure ranging between 380-1710 mg/year throughout the study period. Lithium-products constituted the majority of dibutyl phthalate exposure. Diethyl phthalate exposure, mainly caused by erythromycin, theophylline and diclofenac products, did not exceed the EMA regulatory...... to quantify annual cumulated phthalate exposure from drug products among users of phthalate-containing oral medications in Denmark throughout the period of 2004-2016. METHODS: We conducted a Danish nationwide cohort study using The Danish National Prescription Registry and an internal database held...

  3. Lyapunov exponent of the random frequency oscillator: cumulant expansion approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anteneodo, C; Vallejos, R O

    2010-01-01

    We consider a one-dimensional harmonic oscillator with a random frequency, focusing on both the standard and the generalized Lyapunov exponents, λ and λ* respectively. We discuss the numerical difficulties that arise in the numerical calculation of λ* in the case of strong intermittency. When the frequency corresponds to a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, we compute analytically λ* by using a cumulant expansion including up to the fourth order. Connections with the problem of finding an analytical estimate for the largest Lyapunov exponent of a many-body system with smooth interactions are discussed.

  4. Numerical simulation of explosive magnetic cumulative generator EMG-720

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deryugin, Yu N; Zelenskij, D K; Kazakova, I F; Kargin, V I; Mironychev, P V; Pikar, A S; Popkov, N F; Ryaslov, E A; Ryzhatskova, E G [All-Russian Research Inst. of Experimental Physics, Sarov (Russian Federation)

    1997-12-31

    The paper discusses the methods and results of numerical simulations used in the development of a helical-coaxial explosive magnetic cumulative generator (EMG) with the stator up to 720 mm in diameter. In the process of designing, separate units were numerically modeled, as was the generator operation with a constant inductive-ohmic load. The 2-D processes of the armature acceleration by the explosion products were modeled as well as those of the formation of the sliding high-current contact between the armature and stator`s insulated turns. The problem of the armature integrity in the region of the detonation waves collision was numerically analyzed. 8 figs., 2 refs.

  5. Cumulative exergy losses associated with the production of lead metal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szargut, J [Technical Univ. of Silesia, Gliwice (PL). Inst. of Thermal-Engineering; Morris, D R [New Brunswick Univ., Fredericton, NB (Canada). Dept. of Chemical Engineering

    1990-08-01

    Cumulative exergy losses result from the irreversibility of the links of a technological network leading from raw materials and fuels extracted from nature to the product under consideration. The sum of these losses can be apportioned into partial exergy losses (associated with particular links of the technological network) or into constituent exergy losses (associated with constituent subprocesses of the network). The methods of calculation of the partial and constituent exergy losses are presented, taking into account the useful byproducts substituting the major products of other processes. Analyses of partial and constituent exergy losses are made for the technological network of lead metal production. (author).

  6. Lifetime stress cumulatively programs brain transcriptome and impedes stroke recovery: benefit of sensory stimulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabíola C R Zucchi

    Full Text Available Prenatal stress (PS represents a critical variable affecting lifetime health trajectories, metabolic and vascular functions. Beneficial experiences may attenuate the effects of PS and its programming of health outcomes in later life. Here we investigated in a rat model (1 if PS modulates recovery following cortical ischemia in adulthood; (2 if a second hit by adult stress (AS exaggerates stress responses and ischemic damage; and (3 if tactile stimulation (TS attenuates the cumulative effects of PS and AS. Prenatally stressed and non-stressed adult male rats underwent focal ischemic motor cortex lesion and were tested in skilled reaching and skilled walking tasks. Two groups of rats experienced recurrent restraint stress in adulthood and one of these groups also underwent daily TS therapy. Animals that experienced both PS and AS displayed the most severe motor disabilities after lesion. By contrast, TS promoted recovery from ischemic lesion and reduced hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity. The data also showed that cumulative effects of adverse and beneficial lifespan experiences interact with disease outcomes and brain plasticity through the modulation of gene expression. Microarray analysis of the lesion motor cortex revealed that cumulative PS and AS interact with genes related to growth factors and transcription factors, which were not affected by PS or lesion alone. TS in PS+AS animals reverted these changes, suggesting a critical role for these factors in activity-dependent motor cortical reorganization after ischemic lesion. These findings suggest that beneficial experience later in life can moderate adverse consequences of early programming to improve cerebrovascular health.

  7. Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan Xiu; Song, Lu; Xing, Ai Jun; Gao, Ming; Zhao, Hai Yan; Li, Chun Hui; Zhao, Hua Ling; Chen, Shuo Hua; Lu, Cheng Zhi; Wu, Shou Ling

    2017-02-01

    The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 (11.77) years of which 40,141 (76.6%) were male. The follow-up for all-cause mortality and CCEs was 3.96 (0.48) and 2.98 (0.41) years, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that for every 10 mm Hg·year increase in cumSBP and 5 mm Hg·year increase in cumDBP, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality were 1.013 (1.006, 1.021) and 1.012 (1.006, 1.018); for CCEs, 1.018 (1.010, 1.027) and 1.017 (1.010, 1.024); for stroke, 1.021 (1.011, 1.031) and 1.018 (1.010, 1.026); and for MI, 1.013 (0.996, 1.030) and 1.015 (1.000, 1.029). Using natural spline function analysis, cumSBP and cumDBP showed a J-curve relationship with CCEs; and a U-curve relationship with stroke (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke). Therefore, increases in cumSBP and cumDBP were predictive for all-cause mortality, CCEs, and stroke.

  8. Expansion formulae for characteristics of cumulative cost in finite horizon production models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ayhan, H.; Schlegel, S.

    2001-01-01

    We consider the expected value and the tail probability of cumulative shortage and holding cost (i.e. the probability that cumulative cost is more than a certain value) in finite horizon production models. An exact expression is provided for the expected value of the cumulative cost for general

  9. Keyboarding Instruction at NABTE Institutions: Are We Teaching Techniques to Reduce CTD Incidence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaszczynski, Carol; Joyce, Marguerite Shane

    1996-01-01

    Responses from 157 of 193 business teachers who teach keyboarding indicated that 78.7% were aware of cumulative trauma disorder and 22% had experienced it. Only 13% of classrooms were equipped with wrist rests. About 53% teach techniques to reduce incidence, but 20% did not know whether they taught preventive measures. (SK)

  10. Incidence of and survival after subsequent cancers in carriers of pathogenic MMR variants with previous cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Pål; Seppälä, Toni; Bernstein, Inge

    2017-01-01

    age 40 to age 70 years were 73% for pathogenic MLH1 (path_MLH1), 76% for path_MSH2 carriers and 52% for path_MSH6 carriers, and for colorectal cancer (CRC) the cumulative incidences were 46%, 48% and 23%, respectively. Crude survival after any subsequent cancer was 82% (95% CI 76% to 87%) and 10-year...

  11. The Effect of Total Cumulative Dose, Number of Treatment Cycles, Interval between Injections, and Length of Treatment on the Frequency of Occurrence of Antibodies to Botulinum Toxin Type A in the Treatment of Muscle Spasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakheit, Abdel Magid O.; Liptrot, Anthea; Newton, Rachel; Pickett, Andrew M.

    2012-01-01

    A large cumulative dose of botulinum toxin type A (BoNT-A), frequent injections, a short interval between treatment cycles, and a long duration of treatment have all been suggested, but not confirmed, to be associated with a high incidence of neutralizing antibodies to the neurotoxin. The aim of this study was to investigate whether these…

  12. Cumulative hierarchies and computability over universes of sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domenico Cantone

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Various metamathematical investigations, beginning with Fraenkel’s historical proof of the independence of the axiom of choice, called for suitable definitions of hierarchical universes of sets. This led to the discovery of such important cumulative structures as the one singled out by von Neumann (generally taken as the universe of all sets and Godel’s universe of the so-called constructibles. Variants of those are exploited occasionally in studies concerning the foundations of analysis (according to Abraham Robinson’s approach, or concerning non-well-founded sets. We hence offer a systematic presentation of these many structures, partly motivated by their relevance and pervasiveness in mathematics. As we report, numerous properties of hierarchy-related notions such as rank, have been verified with the assistance of the ÆtnaNova proof-checker.Through SETL and Maple implementations of procedures which effectively handle the Ackermann’s hereditarily finite sets, we illustrate a particularly significant case among those in which the entities which form a universe of sets can be algorithmically constructed and manipulated; hereby, the fruitful bearing on pure mathematics of cumulative set hierarchies ramifies into the realms of theoretical computer science and algorithmics.

  13. Cumulative Effects Assessment: Linking Social, Ecological, and Governance Dimensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian Weber

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Setting social, economic, and ecological objectives is ultimately a process of social choice informed by science. In this special feature we provide a multidisciplinary framework for the use of cumulative effects assessment in land use planning. Forest ecosystems are facing considerable challenges driven by population growth and increasing demands for resources. In a suite of case studies that span the boreal forest of Western Canada to the interior Atlantic forest of Paraguay we show how transparent and defensible methods for scenario analysis can be applied in data-limited regions and how social dimensions of land use change can be incorporated in these methods, particularly in aboriginal communities that have lived in these ecosystems for generations. The case studies explore how scenario analysis can be used to evaluate various land use options and highlight specific challenges with identifying social and ecological responses, determining thresholds and targets for land use, and integrating local and traditional knowledge in land use planning. Given that land use planning is ultimately a value-laden and often politically charged process we also provide some perspective on various collective and expert-based processes for identifying cumulative impacts and thresholds. The need for good science to inform and be informed by culturally appropriate democratic processes calls for well-planned and multifaceted approaches both to achieve an informed understanding of both residents and governments of the interactive and additive changes caused by development, and to design action agendas to influence such change at the ecological and social level.

  14. Maternal distress and parenting in the context of cumulative disadvantage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arditti, Joyce; Burton, Linda; Neeves-Botelho, Sara

    2010-06-01

    This article presents an emergent conceptual model of the features and links between cumulative disadvantage, maternal distress, and parenting practices in low-income families in which parental incarceration has occurred. The model emerged from the integration of extant conceptual and empirical research with grounded theory analysis of longitudinal ethnographic data from Welfare, Children, and Families: A Three-City Study. Fourteen exemplar family cases were used in the analysis. Results indicated that mothers in these families experienced life in the context of cumulative disadvantage, reporting a cascade of difficulties characterized by neighborhood worries, provider concerns, bureaucratic difficulties, violent intimate relationships, and the inability to meet children's needs. Mothers, however, also had an intense desire to protect their children, and to make up for past mistakes. Although, in response to high levels of maternal distress and disadvantage, most mothers exhibited harsh discipline of their children, some mothers transformed their distress by advocating for their children under difficult circumstances. Women's use of harsh discipline and advocacy was not necessarily an "either/or" phenomenon as half of the mothers included in our analysis exhibited both harsh discipline and care/advocacy behaviors. Maternal distress characterized by substance use, while connected to harsh disciplinary behavior, did not preclude mothers engaging in positive parenting behaviors.

  15. Cumulative phase delay imaging for contrast-enhanced ultrasound tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demi, Libertario; Van Sloun, Ruud J G; Wijkstra, Hessel; Mischi, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    Standard dynamic-contrast enhanced ultrasound (DCE-US) imaging detects and estimates ultrasound-contrast-agent (UCA) concentration based on the amplitude of the nonlinear (harmonic) components generated during ultrasound (US) propagation through UCAs. However, harmonic components generation is not specific to UCAs, as it also occurs for US propagating through tissue. Moreover, nonlinear artifacts affect standard DCE-US imaging, causing contrast to tissue ratio reduction, and resulting in possible misclassification of tissue and misinterpretation of UCA concentration. Furthermore, no contrast-specific modality exists for DCE-US tomography; in particular speed-of-sound changes due to UCAs are well within those caused by different tissue types. Recently, a new marker for UCAs has been introduced. A cumulative phase delay (CPD) between the second harmonic and fundamental component is in fact observable for US propagating through UCAs, and is absent in tissue. In this paper, tomographic US images based on CPD are for the first time presented and compared to speed-of-sound US tomography. Results show the applicability of this marker for contrast specific US imaging, with cumulative phase delay imaging (CPDI) showing superior capabilities in detecting and localizing UCA, as compared to speed-of-sound US tomography. Cavities (filled with UCA) which were down to 1 mm in diameter were clearly detectable. Moreover, CPDI is free of the above mentioned nonlinear artifacts. These results open important possibilities to DCE-US tomography, with potential applications to breast imaging for cancer localization. (fast track communication)

  16. Cumulant expansions for measuring water exchange using diffusion MRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Lipeng; Nilsson, Markus; Lasič, Samo; Westin, Carl-Fredrik; Rathi, Yogesh

    2018-02-01

    The rate of water exchange across cell membranes is a parameter of biological interest and can be measured by diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI). In this work, we investigate a stochastic model for the diffusion-and-exchange of water molecules. This model provides a general solution for the temporal evolution of dMRI signal using any type of gradient waveform, thereby generalizing the signal expressions for the Kärger model. Moreover, we also derive a general nth order cumulant expansion of the dMRI signal accounting for water exchange, which has not been explored in earlier studies. Based on this analytical expression, we compute the cumulant expansion for dMRI signals for the special case of single diffusion encoding (SDE) and double diffusion encoding (DDE) sequences. Our results provide a theoretical guideline on optimizing experimental parameters for SDE and DDE sequences, respectively. Moreover, we show that DDE signals are more sensitive to water exchange at short-time scale but provide less attenuation at long-time scale than SDE signals. Our theoretical analysis is also validated using Monte Carlo simulations on synthetic structures.

  17. A Cumulant-based Analysis of Nonlinear Magnetospheric Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Jay R.; Wing, Simon

    2004-01-01

    Understanding magnetospheric dynamics and predicting future behavior of the magnetosphere is of great practical interest because it could potentially help to avert catastrophic loss of power and communications. In order to build good predictive models it is necessary to understand the most critical nonlinear dependencies among observed plasma and electromagnetic field variables in the coupled solar wind/magnetosphere system. In this work, we apply a cumulant-based information dynamical measure to characterize the nonlinear dynamics underlying the time evolution of the Dst and Kp geomagnetic indices, given solar wind magnetic field and plasma input. We examine the underlying dynamics of the system, the temporal statistical dependencies, the degree of nonlinearity, and the rate of information loss. We find a significant solar cycle dependence in the underlying dynamics of the system with greater nonlinearity for solar minimum. The cumulant-based approach also has the advantage that it is reliable even in the case of small data sets and therefore it is possible to avoid the assumption of stationarity, which allows for a measure of predictability even when the underlying system dynamics may change character. Evaluations of several leading Kp prediction models indicate that their performances are sub-optimal during active times. We discuss possible improvements of these models based on this nonparametric approach

  18. Strategy for an assessment of cumulative ecological impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, P.; Collins, J.; Nelsen, J.

    1995-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a strategy to conduct an assessment of the cumulative ecological impact of operations at the 300-square-mile Savannah River Site. This facility has over 400 identified waste units and contains several large watersheds. In addition to individual waste units, residual contamination must be evaluated in terms of its contribution to ecological risks at zonal and site-wide levels. DOE must be able to generate sufficient information to facilitate cleanup in the immediate future within the context of a site-wide ecological risk assessment that may not be completed for many years. The strategy superimposes a more global perspective on ecological assessments of individual waste units and provides strategic underpinnings for conducting individual screening-level and baseline risk assessments at the operable unit and zonal or watershed levels. It identifies ecological endpoints and risk assessment tools appropriate for each level of the risk assessment. In addition, it provides a clear mechanism for identifying clean sites through screening-level risk assessments and for elevating sites with residual contamination to the next level of assessment. Whereas screening-level and operable unit-level risk assessments relate directly to cleanup, zonal and site-wide assessments verity or confirm the overall effectiveness of remediation. The latter assessments must show, for example, whether multiple small areas with residual pesticide contamination that have minimal individual impact would pose a cumulative risk from bioaccumulation because they are within the habitat range of an ecological receptor

  19. Clinical penetrance in hereditary hemochromatosis: estimates of the cumulative incidence of severe liver disease among HFE C282Y homozygotes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosse, Scott D; Gurrin, Lyle C; Bertalli, Nadine A; Allen, Katrina J

    2018-04-01

    Iron overload (hemochromatosis) can cause serious, symptomatic disease that is preventable if detected early and managed appropriately. The leading cause of hemochromatosis in populations of predominantly European ancestry is homozygosity of the C282Y variant in the HFE gene. Screening of adults for iron overload or associated genotypes is controversial, largely because of a belief that severe phenotypes are uncommon, although cascade testing of first-degree relatives of patients is widely endorsed. We contend that severe liver disease (cirrhosis or hepatocellular cancer) is not at all uncommon among older males with hereditary hemochromatosis. Our review of the published data from a variety of empirical sources indicates that roughly 1 in 10 male HFE C282Y homozygotes is likely to develop severe liver disease during his lifetime unless iron overload is detected early and treated. New evidence from a randomized controlled trial of treatment allows for evidence-based management of presymptomatic patients. Although population screening for HFE C282Y homozygosity faces multiple barriers, a potentially effective strategy for increasing the early detection and prevention of clinical iron overload and severe disease is to include HFE C282Y homozygosity in lists of medically actionable gene variants when reporting the results of genome or exome sequencing.

  20. Hazmat Yearly Incident Summary Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — Series of Incident data and summary statistics reports produced which provide statistical information on incidents by type, year, geographical location, and others....

  1. Radiation incidents in dentistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovelock, D.J.

    1996-01-01

    Most dental practitioners act as their own radiographer and radiologist, unlike their medical colleagues. Virtually all dental surgeons have a dental X-ray machine for intraoral radiography available to them and 40% of dental practices have equipment for dental panoramic tomography. Because of the low energy of X-ray equipment used in dentistry, radiation incidents tend to be less serious than those associated with other aspects of patient care. Details of 47 known incidents are given. The advent of the 1985 and 1988 Ionising Radiation Regulations has made dental surgeons more aware of the hazards of radiation. These regulations, and general health and safety legislation, have led to a few dental surgeons facing legal action. Because of the publicity associated with these court cases, it is expected that there will be a decrease in radiation incidents arising from the practice of dentistry. (author)

  2. Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Dianna M.; Labiosa, William; Pearlstine, Leonard; Hallac, David; Strong, David; Hearn, Paul; Bernknopf, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

  3. Cumulative effects, creeping enclosure, and the marine commons of New Jersey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grant Murray

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available In response to declining fish stocks and increased societal concern, the marine ‘commons’ of New Jersey is no longer freely available to commercial and recreational fisheries. We discuss the concept of ‘creeping’ enclosure in relation to New Jersey’s marine fisheries and suggest that reduced access can be a cumulative process and function of multiple events and processes and need not be the result of a single regulatory moment. We begin with a short review of the ‘expected’ effects of enclosure, including loss of flexibility, erosion of community, proletarianization of fishermen, and corporatization of the fishery. We then present some findings of our research and discuss how the signs of enclosure are visible in fisheries that do not feature explicitly privatized property or access rights. We rely on an oral history approach and the rich detail that emerges from attention to the lived experiences of fish harvesters to provide a framework for understanding the range of cumulative effects that have resulted from this process of creeping enclosure. We conclude with a discussion of how the gradual process of enclosure has affected the flows of information between the bio-physical environment and fish harvesters, managers and scientists by reducing both participation in fisheries and the accumulation of knowledge itself.

  4. A damage cumulation method for crack initiation prediction under non proportional loading and overloading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taheri, S.

    1992-04-01

    For a sequence of constant amplitude cyclic loading containing overloads, we propose a method for damage cumulation in non proportional loading. This method uses as data cyclic stabilized states at non proportional loading and initiation or fatigue curve in uniaxial case. For that, we take into account the dependence of Cyclic Strain Stress Curves (C.S.S.C.) and mean cell size on prehardening and we define a stabilized uniaxial state cyclically equivalent to a non proportional stabilized state through a family of C.S.S.C. Although simple assumptions like linear damage function and linear cumulation is used we obtain a sequence effect for difficult cross slip materials as 316 stainless steel, but the Miner rule for easy cross-slip materials. We show then differences between a load-controlled test and a strain controlled test: for a 316 stainless steel in a load controlled test, the non proportional loading at each cycle is less damaging than the uniaxial one for the same equivalent stress, while the result is opposite in a strain controlled test. We show also that an overloading retards initiation in a load controlled test while it accelerates initiation in a strain controlled test. (author). 26 refs., 8 figs

  5. Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giakoumi, Sylvaine; Halpern, Benjamin S; Michel, Loïc N; Gobert, Sylvie; Sini, Maria; Boudouresque, Charles-François; Gambi, Maria-Cristina; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Lejeune, Pierre; Montefalcone, Monica; Pergent, Gerard; Pergent-Martini, Christine; Sanchez-Jerez, Pablo; Velimirov, Branko; Vizzini, Salvatrice; Abadie, Arnaud; Coll, Marta; Guidetti, Paolo; Micheli, Fiorenza; Possingham, Hugh P

    2015-08-01

    Effective ecosystem-based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components' vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  6. Cumulative effects in Swedish EIA practice - difficulties and obstacles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waernbaeck, Antoienette; Hilding-Rydevik, Tuija

    2009-01-01

    The importance of considering cumulative effects (CE) in the context of environmental assessment is manifested in the EU regulations. The demands on the contents of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) documents explicitly ask for CE to be described. In Swedish environmental assessment documents CE are rarely described or included. The aim of this paper is to look into the reasons behind this fact in the Swedish context. The paper describes and analyse how actors implementing the EIA and SEA legislation in Sweden perceive the current situation in relation to the legislative demands and the inclusion of cumulative effects. Through semi-structured interviews the following questions have been explored: Is the phenomenon of CE discussed and included in the EIA/SEA process? What do the actors include in and what is their knowledge of the term and concept of CE? Which difficulties and obstacles do these actors experience and what possibilities for inclusion of CE do they see in the EIA/SEA process? A large number of obstacles and hindrances emerged from the interviews conducted. It can be concluded from the analysis that the will to act does seem to exist. A lack of knowledge in respect of how to include cumulative effects and a lack of clear regulations concerning how this should be done seem to be perceived as the main obstacles. The knowledge of the term and the phenomenon is furthermore quite narrow and not all encompassing. They experience that there is a lack of procedures in place. They also seem to lack knowledge of methods in relation to how to actually work, in practice, with CE and how to include CE in the EIA/SEA process. It can be stated that the existence of this poor picture in relation to practice concerning CE in the context of impact assessment mirrors the existing and so far rather vague demands in respect of the inclusion and assessment of CE in Swedish EIA and SEA legislation, regulations, guidelines and

  7. Technical Note: SCUDA: A software platform for cumulative dose assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Seyoun; McNutt, Todd; Quon, Harry; Wong, John; Lee, Junghoon, E-mail: rshekhar@childrensnational.org, E-mail: junghoon@jhu.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21231 (United States); Plishker, William [IGI Technologies, Inc., College Park, Maryland 20742 (United States); Shekhar, Raj, E-mail: rshekhar@childrensnational.org, E-mail: junghoon@jhu.edu [IGI Technologies, Inc., College Park, Maryland 20742 and Sheikh Zayed Institute for Pediatric Surgical Innovation, Children’s National Health System, Washington, DC 20010 (United States)

    2016-10-15

    Purpose: Accurate tracking of anatomical changes and computation of actually delivered dose to the patient are critical for successful adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Additionally, efficient data management and fast processing are practically important for the adoption in clinic as ART involves a large amount of image and treatment data. The purpose of this study was to develop an accurate and efficient Software platform for CUmulative Dose Assessment (SCUDA) that can be seamlessly integrated into the clinical workflow. Methods: SCUDA consists of deformable image registration (DIR), segmentation, dose computation modules, and a graphical user interface. It is connected to our image PACS and radiotherapy informatics databases from which it automatically queries/retrieves patient images, radiotherapy plan, beam data, and daily treatment information, thus providing an efficient and unified workflow. For accurate registration of the planning CT and daily CBCTs, the authors iteratively correct CBCT intensities by matching local intensity histograms during the DIR process. Contours of the target tumor and critical structures are then propagated from the planning CT to daily CBCTs using the computed deformations. The actual delivered daily dose is computed using the registered CT and patient setup information by a superposition/convolution algorithm, and accumulated using the computed deformation fields. Both DIR and dose computation modules are accelerated by a graphics processing unit. Results: The cumulative dose computation process has been validated on 30 head and neck (HN) cancer cases, showing 3.5 ± 5.0 Gy (mean±STD) absolute mean dose differences between the planned and the actually delivered doses in the parotid glands. On average, DIR, dose computation, and segmentation take 20 s/fraction and 17 min for a 35-fraction treatment including additional computation for dose accumulation. Conclusions: The authors developed a unified software platform that provides

  8. The cumulative burden of surviving childhood cancer: an initial report from the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (SJLIFE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhakta, Nickhill; Liu, Qi; Ness, Kirsten K; Baassiri, Malek; Eissa, Hesham; Yeo, Frederick; Chemaitilly, Wassim; Ehrhardt, Matthew J; Bass, Johnnie; Bishop, Michael W; Shelton, Kyla; Lu, Lu; Huang, Sujuan; Li, Zhenghong; Caron, Eric; Lanctot, Jennifer; Howell, Carrie; Folse, Timothy; Joshi, Vijaya; Green, Daniel M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Armstrong, Gregory T; Krull, Kevin R; Brinkman, Tara M; Khan, Raja B; Srivastava, Deo K; Hudson, Melissa M; Yasui, Yutaka; Robison, Leslie L

    2017-12-09

    Survivors of childhood cancer develop early and severe chronic health conditions (CHCs). A quantitative landscape of morbidity of survivors, however, has not been described. We aimed to describe the cumulative burden of curative cancer therapy in a clinically assessed ageing population of long-term survivors of childhood cancer. The St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (SJLIFE) retrospectively collected data on CHCs in all patients treated for childhood cancer at the St Jude Children's Research Hospital who survived 10 years or longer from initial diagnosis and were 18 years or older as of June 30, 2015. Age-matched and sex-frequency-matched community controls were used for comparison. 21 treatment exposure variables were included in the analysis, with data abstracted from medical records. 168 CHCs for all participants were graded for severity using a modified Common Terminology Criteria of Adverse Events. Multiple imputation with predictive mean matching was used for missing occurrences and grades of CHCs in the survivors who were not clinically evaluable. Mean cumulative count was used for descriptive cumulative burden analysis and marked-point-process regression was used for inferential cumulative burden analysis. Of 5522 patients treated for childhood cancer at St Jude Children's Research Hospital who had complete records, survived 10 years or longer, and were 18 years or older at time of study, 3010 (54·5%) were alive, had enrolled, and had had prospective clinical assessment. 2512 (45·5%) of the 5522 patients were not clinically evaluable. The cumulative incidence of CHCs at age 50 years was 99·9% (95% CI 99·9-99·9) for grade 1-5 CHCs and 96·0% (95% CI 95·3-96·8%) for grade 3-5 CHCs. By age 50 years, a survivor had experienced, on average, 17·1 (95% CI 16·2-18·1) CHCs of any grade, of which 4·7 (4·6-4·9) were CHCs of grade 3-5. The cumulative burden in matched community controls of grade 1-5 CHCs was 9·2 (95% CI 7·9-10·6; pgrade 3-5 CHCs was 2·3 (1

  9. The 5-year incidence of bleb-related infection and its risk factors after filtering surgeries with adjunctive mitomycin C: collaborative bleb-related infection incidence and treatment study 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Tetsuya; Sawada, Akira; Mayama, Chihiro; Araie, Makoto; Ohkubo, Shinji; Sugiyama, Kazuhisa; Kuwayama, Yasuaki

    2014-05-01

    To report the 5-year incidence of bleb-related infection after mitomycin C-augmented glaucoma filtering surgery and to investigate the risk factors for infections. Prospective, observational cohort study. A total of 1098 eyes of 1098 glaucoma patients who had undergone mitomycin C-augmented trabeculectomy or trabeculectomy combined with phacoemulsification and intraocular lens implantation performed at 34 clinical centers. Patients were followed up at 6-month intervals for 5 years, with special attention given to bleb-related infections. The follow-up data were analyzed via Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model. Incidence of bleb-related infection over 5 years and risk factors for infections. Of the 1098 eyes, a bleb-related infection developed in 21 eyes. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the incidence of bleb-related infection was 2.2±0.5% (cumulative incidence ± standard error) at the 5-year follow-up for all cases, whereas it was 7.9±3.1% and 1.7±0.4% for cases with and without a history of bleb leakage, respectively (P = 0.000, log-rank test). When only eyes with a well-functioning bleb were counted, it was 3.9±1.0%. No differences were found between the trabeculectomy cases and the combined surgery cases (P = 0.398, log-rank test) or between cases with a fornix-based flap and those with a limbal-based flap (P = 0.651, log-rank test). The Cox model revealed that a history of bleb leakage and younger age were risk factors for infections. The 5-year cumulative incidence of bleb-related infection was 2.2±0.5% in eyes treated with mitomycin C-augmented trabeculectomy or trabeculectomy combined with phacoemulsification and intraocular lens implantation in our prospective, multicenter study. Bleb leakage and younger age were the main risk factors for infections. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Lightning incidents in Mongolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myagmar Doljinsuren

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This is one of the first studies that has been conducted in Mongolia on the distribution of lightning incidents. The study covers a 10-year period from 2004 to 2013. The country records a human death rate of 15.4 deaths per 10 million people per year, which is much higher than that of many countries with similar isokeraunic level. The reason may be the low-grown vegetation observed in most rural areas of Mongolia, a surface topography, typical to steppe climate. We suggest modifications to Gomes–Kadir equation for such countries, as it predicts a much lower annual death rate for Mongolia. The lightning incidents spread over the period from May to August with the peak of the number of incidents occurring in July. The worst lightning affected region in the country is the central part. Compared with impacts of other convective disasters such as squalls, thunderstorms and hail, lightning stands as the second highest in the number of incidents, human deaths and animal deaths. Economic losses due to lightning is only about 1% of the total losses due to the four extreme weather phenomena. However, unless precautionary measures are not promoted among the public, this figure of losses may significantly increase with time as the country is undergoing rapid industrialization at present.

  11. Incident users of antipsychotics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baandrup, Lone; Kruse, Marie

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: In Denmark, as well as in many other countries, consumption of antipsychotics is on the rise, partly due to increasing off-label use. The aim of this study was to analyze and quantify the extent of off-label use and polypharmacy in incident users of antipsychotic medication, and to examine...

  12. Cumulative trauma and symptom complexity in children: a path analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodges, Monica; Godbout, Natacha; Briere, John; Lanktree, Cheryl; Gilbert, Alicia; Kletzka, Nicole Taylor

    2013-11-01

    Multiple trauma exposures during childhood are associated with a range of psychological symptoms later in life. In this study, we examined whether the total number of different types of trauma experienced by children (cumulative trauma) is associated with the complexity of their subsequent symptomatology, where complexity is defined as the number of different symptom clusters simultaneously elevated into the clinical range. Children's symptoms in six different trauma-related areas (e.g., depression, anger, posttraumatic stress) were reported both by child clients and their caretakers in a clinical sample of 318 children. Path analysis revealed that accumulated exposure to multiple different trauma types predicts symptom complexity as reported by both children and their caretakers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Near-Field Source Localization Using a Special Cumulant Matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Han; Wei, Gang

    A new near-field source localization algorithm based on a uniform linear array was proposed. The proposed algorithm estimates each parameter separately but does not need pairing parameters. It can be divided into two important steps. The first step is bearing-related electric angle estimation based on the ESPRIT algorithm by constructing a special cumulant matrix. The second step is the other electric angle estimation based on the 1-D MUSIC spectrum. It offers much lower computational complexity than the traditional near-field 2-D MUSIC algorithm and has better performance than the high-order ESPRIT algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate that the performance of the proposed algorithm is close to the Cramer-Rao Bound (CRB).

  14. Cumulative growth of minor hysteresis loops in the Kolmogorov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meilikhov, E. Z.; Farzetdinova, R. M.

    2013-01-01

    The phenomenon of nonrepeatability of successive remagnetization cycles in Co/M (M = Pt, Pd, Au) multilayer film structures is explained in the framework of the Kolmogorov crystallization model. It is shown that this model of phase transitions can be adapted so as to adequately describe the process of magnetic relaxation in the indicated systems with “memory.” For this purpose, it is necessary to introduce some additional elements into the model, in particular, (i) to take into account the fact that every cycle starts from a state “inherited” from the preceding cycle and (ii) to assume that the rate of growth of a new magnetic phase depends on the cycle number. This modified model provides a quite satisfactory qualitative and quantitative description of all features of successive magnetic relaxation cycles in the system under consideration, including the surprising phenomenon of cumulative growth of minor hysteresis loops.

  15. Ratcheting up the ratchet: on the evolution of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tennie, Claudio; Call, Josep; Tomasello, Michael

    2009-08-27

    Some researchers have claimed that chimpanzee and human culture rest on homologous cognitive and learning mechanisms. While clearly there are some homologous mechanisms, we argue here that there are some different mechanisms at work as well. Chimpanzee cultural traditions represent behavioural biases of different populations, all within the species' existing cognitive repertoire (what we call the 'zone of latent solutions') that are generated by founder effects, individual learning and mostly product-oriented (rather than process-oriented) copying. Human culture, in contrast, has the distinctive characteristic that it accumulates modifications over time (what we call the 'ratchet effect'). This difference results from the facts that (i) human social learning is more oriented towards process than product and (ii) unique forms of human cooperation lead to active teaching, social motivations for conformity and normative sanctions against non-conformity. Together, these unique processes of social learning and cooperation lead to humans' unique form of cumulative cultural evolution.

  16. EXPERIMENTAL VALIDATION OF CUMULATIVE SURFACE LOCATION ERROR FOR TURNING PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam K. Kiss

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to create a mechanical model which is suitable to investigate the surface quality in turning processes, based on the Cumulative Surface Location Error (CSLE, which describes the series of the consecutive Surface Location Errors (SLE in roughing operations. In the established model, the investigated CSLE depends on the currently and the previously resulted SLE by means of the variation of the width of cut. The phenomenon of the system can be described as an implicit discrete map. The stationary Surface Location Error and its bifurcations were analysed and flip-type bifurcation was observed for CSLE. Experimental verification of the theoretical results was carried out.

  17. Ratcheting up the ratchet: on the evolution of cumulative culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tennie, Claudio; Call, Josep; Tomasello, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Some researchers have claimed that chimpanzee and human culture rest on homologous cognitive and learning mechanisms. While clearly there are some homologous mechanisms, we argue here that there are some different mechanisms at work as well. Chimpanzee cultural traditions represent behavioural biases of different populations, all within the species’ existing cognitive repertoire (what we call the ‘zone of latent solutions’) that are generated by founder effects, individual learning and mostly product-oriented (rather than process-oriented) copying. Human culture, in contrast, has the distinctive characteristic that it accumulates modifications over time (what we call the ‘ratchet effect’). This difference results from the facts that (i) human social learning is more oriented towards process than product and (ii) unique forms of human cooperation lead to active teaching, social motivations for conformity and normative sanctions against non-conformity. Together, these unique processes of social learning and cooperation lead to humans’ unique form of cumulative cultural evolution. PMID:19620111

  18. Cumulative neutrino background from quasar-driven outflows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xiawei; Loeb, Abraham, E-mail: xiawei.wang@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: aloeb@cfa.harvard.edu [Department of Astronomy, Harvard University, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Quasar-driven outflows naturally account for the missing component of the extragalactic γ-ray background through neutral pion production in interactions between protons accelerated by the forward outflow shock and interstellar protons. We study the simultaneous neutrino emission by the same protons. We adopt outflow parameters that best fit the extragalactic γ-ray background data and derive a cumulative neutrino background of ∼ 10{sup −7} GeV cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} sr{sup −1} at neutrino energies E {sub ν} ∼> 10 TeV, which naturally explains the most recent IceCube data without tuning any free parameters. The link between the γ-ray and neutrino emission from quasar outflows can be used to constrain the high-energy physics of strong shocks at cosmological distances.

  19. Modelling the evolution and diversity of cumulative culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enquist, Magnus; Ghirlanda, Stefano; Eriksson, Kimmo

    2011-01-01

    Previous work on mathematical models of cultural evolution has mainly focused on the diffusion of simple cultural elements. However, a characteristic feature of human cultural evolution is the seemingly limitless appearance of new and increasingly complex cultural elements. Here, we develop a general modelling framework to study such cumulative processes, in which we assume that the appearance and disappearance of cultural elements are stochastic events that depend on the current state of culture. Five scenarios are explored: evolution of independent cultural elements, stepwise modification of elements, differentiation or combination of elements and systems of cultural elements. As one application of our framework, we study the evolution of cultural diversity (in time as well as between groups). PMID:21199845

  20. Optimal execution with price impact under Cumulative Prospect Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jingdong; Zhu, Hongliang; Li, Xindan

    2018-01-01

    Optimal execution of a stock (or portfolio) has been widely studied in academia and in practice over the past decade, and minimizing transaction costs is a critical point. However, few researchers consider the psychological factors for the traders. What are traders truly concerned with - buying low in the paper accounts or buying lower compared to others? We consider the optimal trading strategies in terms of the price impact and Cumulative Prospect Theory and identify some specific properties. Our analyses indicate that a large proportion of the execution volume is distributed at both ends of the transaction time. But the trader's optimal strategies may not be implemented at the same transaction size and speed in different market environments.

  1. Incidence, progression and intensity of Bud Rot in Elaeis guineensis Jacq. in San Lorenzo, Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Rivas Figueroa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available BUD rot (BR is the most serious disease of oil palm in Latin America; in Equator has caused more than 150 million USD of losses. The aim of this work was to determine the incidence, progression and disease intensity of BR in E. guineensis. Incidence and disease progression was determined from data of oil palm enterprises: Palesema, PDA, Palpailón, Energy & Palma y Alespalma during 2006-2013. Disease intensity was determined at 2013. Incidence was 66.75 % and disease intensity was 46 %. Based on projections of accumulative incidence a polynomial equation was built that predicted 78.30 % of cumulative incidence for 2014, indicating exponential growth of BR from 2009 to 2013. Magnitude of damages based on incidence, disease progression and infection index indicated the occurrence of a lethal form of BR in San Lorenzo, province of Esmeraldas, Equator.

  2. Incident Command System - Environmental Unit responsibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hillman, S. O.

    1997-01-01

    The Incident Command System (ICS) for crisis management, used for response to oil spills by the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company throughout its facilities, including the Trans Alaska Pipeline and the Valdez Marine Terminal, was described. Special attention was given to the Environmental Unit within the ICS which functions as a primary support unit for the Incident Operations Section. Details of the Unit's function were provided. These include the collection, evaluation and dissemination of information on all environmental issues concerning the crisis, provision of advice and direction on environmental aspects, and up-front agency interaction. A checklist of tasks is included. 7 refs

  3. Economic and policy implications of the cumulative carbon budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E. L.; Otto, A.; Hepburn, C.

    2014-12-01

    The importance of cumulative carbon emissions in determining long-term risks of climate change presents considerable challenges to policy makers. The traditional notion of "total CO2-equivalent emissions", which forms the backbone of agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the European Emissions Trading System, is fundamentally flawed. Measures to reduce short-lived climate pollutants benefit the current generation, while measures to reduce long-lived climate pollutants benefit future generations, so there is no sense in which they can ever be considered equivalent. Debates over the correct metric used to compute CO2-equivalence are thus entirely moot: both long-lived and short-lived emissions will need to be addressed if all generations are to be protected from dangerous climate change. As far as long-lived climate pollutants are concerned, the latest IPCC report highlights the overwhelming importance of carbon capture and storage in determining the cost of meeting the goal of limiting anthropogenic warming to two degrees. We will show that this importance arises directly from the cumulative carbon budget and the role of CCS as the technology of last resort before economic activity needs to be restricted to meet ambitious climate targets. It highlights the need to increase the rate of CCS deployment by orders of magnitude if the option of avoiding two degrees is to be retained. The difficulty of achieving this speed of deployment through conventional incentives and carbon-pricing mechanisms suggests a need for a much more direct mandatory approach. Despite their theoretical economic inefficiency, the success of recent regulatory measures in achieving greenhouse gas emissions reductions in jurisdictions such as the United States suggests an extension of the regulatory approach could be a more effective and politically acceptable means of achieving adequately rapid CCS deployment than conventional carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems.

  4. Incidence & prevalence of stroke in India: A systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sureshkumar Kamalakannan

    2017-01-01

    Methods: All population-based, cross-sectional studies and cohort studies from India which reported the stroke incidence rate or cumulative stroke incidence and/or the prevalence of stroke in participants from any age group were included. Electronic databases (Ovid, PubMed, Medline, Embase and IndMED were searched and studies published during 1960 to 2015 were included. A total of 3079 independent titles were identified for screening, of which 10 population-based cross-sectional studies were considered eligible for inclusion. Given the heterogeneity of the studies, meta-analysis was not carried out. Results: The cumulative incidence of stroke ranged from 105 to 152/100,000 persons per year, and the crude prevalence of stroke ranged from 44.29 to 559/100,000 persons in different parts of the country during the past decade. These values were higher than those of high-income countries. Interpretation & conclusions: A paucity of good-quality epidemiological studies on stroke in India emphasizes the need for a coordinated effort at both the State and national level to study the burden of stroke in India. Future investment in the population-based epidemiological studies on stroke would lead to better preventive measures against stroke and better rehabilitation measures for stroke-related disabilities in the country.

  5. Chinese Herbal Medicine as an Adjunctive Therapy Ameliorated the Incidence of Chronic Hepatitis in Patients with Breast Cancer: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuo-Chin Huang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We conducted a National Health Insurance Research Database-based Taiwanese nationwide population-based cohort study to evaluate whether Chinese herbal medicine (CHM treatment decreased the incidence of chronic hepatitis in breast cancer patients receiving chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy. A total of 81171 patients were diagnosed with breast cancer within the defined study period. After randomly equal matching, data from 13856 patients were analyzed. Hazard ratios of incidence rate of chronic hepatitis were used to determine the influence and therapeutic potential of CHM in patients with breast cancer. The patients with breast cancer receiving CHM treatment exhibited a significantly decreased incidence rate of chronic hepatitis even across the stratification of age, CCI score, and treatments. The cumulative incidence of chronic hepatitis for a period of seven years after initial breast cancer diagnosis was also reduced in the patients receiving CHM treatment. The ten most commonly used single herbs and formulas were effective in protecting liver function in patients with breast cancer, where Hedyotis diffusa and Jia-Wei-Xiao-Yao-San were the most commonly used herbal agents. In conclusion, our study provided information that western medicine therapy combined with CHM as an adjuvant modality may have a significant impact on liver protection in patients with breast cancer.

  6. Incidence of and survival after subsequent cancers in carriers of pathogenic MMR variants with previous cancer : a report from the prospective Lynch syndrome database

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Møller, Pål; Seppälä, Toni; Bernstein, Inge; Holinski-Feder, Elke; Sala, Paola; Evans, D Gareth; Lindblom, Annika; Macrae, Finlay; Blanco, Ignacio; Sijmons, Rolf; Jeffries, Jacqueline; Vasen, Hans; Burn, John; Nakken, Sigve; Hovig, Eivind; Rødland, Einar Andreas; Tharmaratnam, Kukatharmini; de Vos Tot Nederveen Cappel, Wouter H; Hill, James; Wijnen, Juul; Jenkins, Mark; Green, Kate; Lalloo, Fiona; Sunde, Lone; Mints, Miriam; Bertario, Lucio; Pineda, Marta; Navarro, Matilde; Morak, Monika; Renkonen-Sinisalo, Laura; Frayling, Ian M; Plazzer, John-Paul; Pylvanainen, Kirsi; Genuardi, Maurizio; Mecklin, Jukka-Pekka; Möslein, Gabriela; Sampson, Julian R; Capella, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Objective Today most patients with Lynch syndrome (LS) survive their first cancer. There is limited information on the incidences and outcome of subsequent cancers. The present study addresses three questions: (i) what is the cumulative incidence of a subsequent cancer; (ii) in which organs do

  7. Incidents with hazardous radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenhacker, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Incidents with hazardous radiation sources can occur in any country, even those without nuclear facilities. Preparedness for such incidents is supposed to fulfill globally agreed minimum standards. Incidents are categorized in incidents with licensed handling of radiation sources as for material testing, transport accidents of hazardous radiation sources, incidents with radionuclide batteries, incidents with satellites containing radioactive inventory, incidents wit not licensed handling of illegally acquired hazardous radiation sources. The emergency planning in Austria includes a differentiation according to the consequences: incidents with release of radioactive materials resulting in restricted contamination, incidents with release of radioactive materials resulting in local contamination, and incidents with the hazard of e@nhanced exposure due to the radiation source.

  8. Testing of Software Routine to Determine Deviate and Cumulative Probability: ModStandardNormal Version 1.0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A.H. Monib

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this calculation is to document that the software routine ModStandardNomal Version 1.0 which is a Visual Fortran 5.0 module, provides correct results for a normal distribution up to five significant figures (three significant figures at the function tails) for a specified range of input parameters. The software routine may be used for quality affecting work. Two types of output are generated in ModStandardNomal: a deviate, x, given a cumulative probability, p, between 0 and 1; and a cumulative probability, p, given a deviate, x, between -8 and 8. This calculation supports Performance Assessment, under Technical Product Development Plan, TDP-EBS-MD-000006 (Attachment I, DIRS 3) and is written in accordance with the AP-3.12Q Calculations procedure (Attachment I, DIRS 4)

  9. Incidence of hypothyroidism occurring long after iodine-131 therapy for hyperthyroidism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holm, L.E.; Lundell, G.; Israelsson, A.; Dahlgvist, I.

    1982-01-01

    We have studied the long-term incidence of hypothyroidism in 4,473 formerly hyperthyroid patients given I-131 therapy between 1951 and 1975. The mean age at the first I-131 treatment was 56 yr. Six percent developed hypothyroidism within one year of therapy, and 72% within 26 yr. Prior antithyroid medication did not affect the incidence of hypothyroidism. Patients cured with one dose of I-131 had a lower cumulative long-term incidence of hypothyroidism than those requiring more than one dose

  10. Cumulant-Based Coherent Signal Subspace Method for Bearing and Range Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bourennane Salah

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A new method for simultaneous range and bearing estimation for buried objects in the presence of an unknown Gaussian noise is proposed. This method uses the MUSIC algorithm with noise subspace estimated by using the slice fourth-order cumulant matrix of the received data. The higher-order statistics aim at the removal of the additive unknown Gaussian noise. The bilinear focusing operator is used to decorrelate the received signals and to estimate the coherent signal subspace. A new source steering vector is proposed including the acoustic scattering model at each sensor. Range and bearing of the objects at each sensor are expressed as a function of those at the first sensor. This leads to the improvement of object localization anywhere, in the near-field or in the far-field zone of the sensor array. Finally, the performances of the proposed method are validated on data recorded during experiments in a water tank.

  11. Gradual and Cumulative Improvements to the Classical Differential Evolution Scheme through Experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anescu George

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the experimental results of some tests conducted with the purpose to gradually and cumulatively improve the classical DE scheme in both efficiency and success rate. The modifications consisted in the randomization of the scaling factor (a simple jitter scheme, a more efficient Random Greedy Selection scheme, an adaptive scheme for the crossover probability and a resetting mechanism for the agents. After each modification step, experiments have been conducted on a set of 11 scalable, multimodal, continuous optimization functions in order to analyze the improvements and decide the new improvement direction. Finally, only the initial classical scheme and the constructed Fast Self-Adaptive DE (FSA-DE variant were compared with the purpose of testing their performance degradation with the increase of the search space dimension. The experimental results demonstrated the superiority of the proposed FSA-DE variant.

  12. Critical incident monitoring in anaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choy, Y C

    2006-12-01

    Critical incident monitoring in anaesthesia is an important tool for quality improvement and maintenance of high safety standards in anaesthetic services. It is now widely accepted as a useful quality improvement technique for reducing morbidity and mortality in anaesthesia and has become part of the many quality assurance programmes of many general hospitals under the Ministry of Health. Despite wide-spread reservations about its value, critical incident monitoring is a classical qualitative research technique which is particularly useful where problems are complex, contextual and influenced by the interaction of physical, psychological and social factors. Thus, it is well suited to be used in probing the complex factors behind human error and system failure. Human error has significant contributions to morbidities and mortalities in anaesthesia. Understanding the relationships between, errors, incidents and accidents is important for prevention and risk management to reduce harm to patients. Cardiac arrests in the operating theatre (OT) and prolonged stay in recovery, constituted the bulk of reported incidents. Cardiac arrests in OT resulted in significant mortality and involved mostly de-compensated patients and those with unstable cardiovascular functions, presenting for emergency operations. Prolonged-stay in the recovery extended period of observation for ill patients. Prolonged stay in recovery was justifiable in some cases, as these patients needed a longer period of post-operative observation until they were stable enough to return to the ward. The advantages of the relatively low cost, and the ability to provide a comprehensive body of detailed qualitative information, which can be used to develop strategies to prevent and manage existing problems and to plan further initiatives for patient safety makes critical incident monitoring a valuable tool in ensuring patient safety. The contribution of critical incident reporting to the issue of patient safety is

  13. [Incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in China, 2014].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, X Y; Zheng, R S; Sun, K X; Zhang, S W; Zeng, H M; Zou, X N; Chen, W Q; He, J

    2018-04-23

    Objective: To estimate the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in China based on the cancer registry data in 2014, collected by the National Central Cancer Registry (NCCR). Methods: There were 449 cancer registries submitted cervical cancer incidence and deaths in 2014 to NCCR. After evaluating the data quality, 339 registries' data were accepted for analysis and stratified by areas (urban/rural) and age group. Combined with data on national population in 2014, the nationwide incidence and mortality of cervical cancer were estimated. Chinese population census in 2000 and Segi's population were used for age-standardized incidence/mortality rates. Results: Qualified 339 cancer registries covered a total of 288 243 347 populations (144 061 915 in urban and 144 181 432 in rural areas). The percentage of morphologically verified cases and death certificate-only cases were 86.07% and 1.01%, respectively. The mortality to incidence ratio was 0.30. The estimates of new cases were about 102 000 in China in 2014, with a crude incidence rate of 15.30/100 000. The age-standardized incidence rates by China standard population (ASR China) and world standard population (ASR world) of cervical cancer were 11.57/100 000 and 10.61/100 000, respectively. Cumulative incidence rate of cervical cancer in China was 1.11%. The crude and ASR China incidence rates in urban areas were 15.27/100 000 and 11.16/100 000, respectively, whereas those were 15.34/100 000 and 12.14/100 000 in rural areas. The estimates of cervical cancer deaths were about 30 400 in China in 2014, with a crude mortality rate of 4.57/100 000. The ASR China and ASR world mortality rates were 3.12/100 000 and 2.98/100 000, respectively, with a cumulative mortality rate (0-74 years old) of 0.33%. The crude and ASR China mortality rates were 4.44/100 000 and 2.92/100 000 in urban areas, respectively, whereas those were 4.72/100 000 and 3.39/100 000 in rural areas. Conclusions: There is still a heavy burden of

  14. Infectious endophthalmitis in Boston keratoprosthesis: incidence and prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behlau, Irmgard; Martin, Kathryn V; Martin, Jacqueline N; Naumova, Elena N; Cadorette, James J; Sforza, J Tammy; Pineda, Roberto; Dohlman, Claes H

    2014-11-01

    To determine the cumulative worldwide incidence of infectious endophthalmitis and associated vision loss after Boston keratoprosthesis (B-KPro) Type I/II implantation and to propose both safe and inexpensive prophylactic antibiotic regimens. Two retrospective methods were used to determine the incidence, visual outcomes and aetiologies of infectious endophthalmitis associated with the B-KPro divided per decade: (i) systematic review of the literature from 1990 through January 2013 and (ii) a surveillance survey sent to all surgeons who implanted B-KPros through 2010 with 1-year minimum follow-up. In addition, a single-Boston surgeon 20-year experience was examined. From 1990 through 2010, there were 4729 B-KPros implanted worldwide by 209 U.S. surgeons and 159 international surgeons. The endophthalmitis cumulative mean incidence declined from 12% during its first decade of use to about 3% during its second decade in the Unites States and about 5% internationally during the second decade. There remains a large incidence range both in the United States (1-12.5%) and internationally (up to 17%). Poor compliance with daily topical antibiotics is an important risk factor. While Gram-positive organisms remained dominant, fungal infections emerged during the second decade. Daily prophylactic topical antibiotics have dramatically reduced the endophthalmitis incidence. Although Gram-positive organisms are the most common aetiology, antimicrobials must be inclusive of Gram-negative organisms. Selection of prophylactic regimens should be tailored to local antibiotic susceptibility patterns, be cost-effective, and should not promote the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. An example of a broad-spectrum, low-cost prophylactic option for non-autoimmune patients includes trimethoprim/polymyxinB once daily. © 2014 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Maximum Credible Incidents

    CERN Document Server

    Strait, J

    2009-01-01

    Following the incident in sector 34, considerable effort has been made to improve the systems for detecting similar faults and to improve the safety systems to limit the damage if a similar incident should occur. Nevertheless, even after the consolidation and repairs are completed, other faults may still occur in the superconducting magnet systems, which could result in damage to the LHC. Such faults include both direct failures of a particular component or system, or an incorrect response to a “normal” upset condition, for example a quench. I will review a range of faults which could be reasonably expected to occur in the superconducting magnet systems, and which could result in substantial damage and down-time to the LHC. I will evaluate the probability and the consequences of such faults, and suggest what mitigations, if any, are possible to protect against each.

  16. Contaminated Mexican steel incident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    This report documents the circumstances contributing to the inadvertent melting of cobalt 60 (Co-60) contaminated scrap metal in two Mexican steel foundries and the subsequent distribution of contaminated steel products into the United States. The report addresses mainly those actions taken by US Federal and state agencies to protect the US population from radiation risks associated with the incident. Mexico had much more serious radiation exposure and contamination problems to manage. The United States Government maintained a standing offer to provide technical and medical assistance to the Mexican Government. The report covers the tracing of the source to its origin, response actions to recover radioactive steel in the United States, and return of the contaminated materials to Mexico. The incident resulted in significant radiation exposures within Mexico, but no known significant exposure within the United States. Response to the incident required the combined efforts of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Department of Energy, Department of Transportation, Department of State, and US Customs Service (Department of Treasury) personnel at the Federal level and representatives of all 50 State Radiation Control Programs and, in some instances, local and county government personnel. The response also required a diplomatic interface with the Mexican Government and cooperation of numerous commercial establishments and members of the general public. The report describes the factual information associated with the event and may serve as information for subsequent recommendations and actions by the NRC. 8 figures

  17. The MentDis_ICF65+study protocol: prevalence, 1-year incidence and symptom severity of mental disorders in the elderly and their relationship to impairment, functioning (ICF) and service utilisation

    OpenAIRE

    Andreas, Sylke; Haerter, Martin; Volkert, Jana; Hausberg, Maria; Sehner, Susanne; Wegscheider, Karl; Rabung, Sven; Ausin, Berta; Canuto, Alessandra; Da Ronch, Chiara; Grassi, Luigi; Hershkovitz, Yael; Lelliott, Paul; Munoz, Manuel; Quirk, Alan

    2013-01-01

    Background The EU currently lacks reliable data on the prevalence and incidence of mental disorders in older people. Despite the availability of several national and international epidemiological studies, the size and burden of mental disorders in the elderly remain unclear due to various reasons. Therefore, the aims of the MentDis_ICF65+ study are (1) to adapt existing assessment instruments, and (2) to collect data on the prevalence, the incidence, and the natural course and prognosis of me...

  18. Longitudinal lung function decline and wood dust exposure in the furniture industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, G; Schlünssen, V; Schaumburg, I; Taudorf, E; Sigsgaard, T

    2008-02-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between change in lung function and cumulative exposure to wood dust. In total, 1,112 woodworkers (927 males, 185 females) and 235 reference workers (104 males, 185 females) participated in a 6-yr longitudinal study. Forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV(1)), forced vital capacity (FVC), height and weight were measured, and questionnaire data on respiratory symptoms, wood dust exposure and smoking habits were collected. Cumulative inhalable wood dust exposure was assessed using a study-specific job exposure matrix and exposure time. The median (range) for cumulative wood dust exposure was 3.75 (0-7.55) mg x year x m(-3). A dose-response relationship between cumulative wood dust exposure and percent annual decrease in FEV(1) was suggested for female workers. This was confirmed in a linear regression model adjusted for confounders, including smoking, height and age. An additional difference of -14.50 mL x yr(-1) and -27.97 mL x yr(-1) was revealed for females exposed to 3.75-4.71 mg x yr x m(-3) or to >4.71 mg x yr x m(-3), respectively, compared with non-/low-exposed females. For females, a positive trend between wood dust exposure and the cumulative incidence proportion of FEV(1)/FVC <70% was suggested. In conclusion, in the present low-exposed cohort, female woodworkers had an accelerated decline in lung function, which may be clinically relevant.

  19. Extended incident-angle dependence formula of sputter yield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, T.; Shibata, K.; Muramoto, T.; Kenmotsu, T.; Li Z.; Kawamura, T.

    2006-06-01

    We extend a new semi-empirical formula for incident-angle dependence of normalized sputter yield that includes the contribution to sputter yield from the direct knock-out process that was not considered in the previously proposed one. Three parameters included in the new one are estimated for data calculated with ACAT code for D + ions incident obliquely on C, Fe and W materials in incident-energy regions from several tens of eV to 10 keV. Then, the parameters are expressed with functions of incident energy. The formula with the functions derived well reproduces that using the ACAT data in the whole energy range. (author)

  20. Analysis of LDPE-ZnO-clay nanocomposites using novel cumulative rheological parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kracalik, Milan

    2017-05-01

    Polymer nanocomposites exhibit complex rheological behaviour due to physical and also possibly chemical interactions between individual phases. Up to now, rheology of dispersive polymer systems has been usually described by evaluation of viscosity curve (shear thinning phenomenon), storage modulus curve (formation of secondary plateau) or plotting information about dumping behaviour (e.g. Van Gurp-Palmen-plot, comparison of loss factor tan δ). On the contrary to evaluation of damping behaviour, values of cot δ were calculated and called as "storage factor", analogically to loss factor. Then values of storage factor were integrated over specific frequency range and called as "cumulative storage factor". In this contribution, LDPE-ZnO-clay nanocomposites with different dispersion grades (physical networks) have been prepared and characterized by both conventional as well as novel analysis approach. Next to cumulative storage factor, further cumulative rheological parameters like cumulative complex viscosity, cumulative complex modulus or cumulative storage modulus have been introduced.

  1. Failure-To-Thrive, Maltreatment and the Behavior and Development of 6-Year-Old Children from Low-Income, Urban Families: A Cumulative Risk Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Mia A.; Black, Maureen M.; Krishnakumar, Ambika

    2000-01-01

    A cumulative risk model was used to examine the relationship among failure-to-thrive (FIT), maltreatment, and four aspects of children's development (cognitive performance, adaptive functioning at school, classroom behavior, and behavior at home) in 193 6-year-olds. Risk status was negatively associated with the four developmental outcomes.…

  2. Geneflow and Cumulative discounted Revenues of Dairy Cattle Cross-Breeding Schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosgey, I.S.; Bebe, B.O.; Kahi, A.K.; Arendonk, J.A.M.V.

    1999-01-01

    A simulation study Using Matrix formulation was used to asses the flow of genes from the nucleus to the commercial population for three nucleus dairy cattle crossbreeding schemes involving indigenous (Zebu or native ) and exotic (European) animals under Kenyan conditions: Artificial insemination (A.I.) or natural mating F 1 production, continuous crossbred (F 2 inter se) production and multiple ovulation and embryo transfer (MOET) F 1 production. The latter two schemes used MOET in the nucleus. cumulative discounted expressions (CDES) and cumulative discounted Revenues (CDR) were calculated to rank these schemes. The Pathways considered were sires and dams to produce sires and dams. The evaluation Criterion was milk production measured in age class 3 through 10 in F 1 and F 2 cow populations. the schemes were evaluated over a 30-year projected period with assumed interest rates of 0% and 10%. Further, the genetic level between the indigenous nucleus animals, the F 1 males and commercial female population was calculated by defining the incidence vector h as the difference between the three groups. The F 1 A.I. or natural scheme had higher CDES of 0.978 and 0.161 at 0% and 10% interest rates respectively. The corresponding values for F 1 MOET scheme were 0.735 and 0.070 and those of F 2 inter se were 0.676 and 0.079 at 0% and 10% interest rates, respectively. For a nucleus with 64 dams, CDR (US$) were 95.50 and 15.80 at 0% and 10% interest rates, respectively for F 1 A.I. or natural scheme. The F 1 MOET scheme had corresponding values of 62.05 and 6.90 while F 2 inter se had 66.10 and 7.75. Under both interest rates, the F 1 A.I. or natural mating schemes had higher CDES and CDR than the other two schemes and is faster in dissemination of genes to the commercial population. F 2 inter se was intermediate. The genetic level of nucleus animal is higher than of F 1 male and females because indigenous nucleus females contribute 50% of the genes. F 2 cows are expected to

  3. Fluid Overload and Cumulative Thoracostomy Output Are Associated With Surgical Site Infection After Pediatric Cardiothoracic Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sochet, Anthony A; Nyhan, Aoibhinn; Spaeder, Michael C; Cartron, Alexander M; Song, Xiaoyan; Klugman, Darren; Brown, Anna T

    2017-08-01

    To determine the impact of cumulative, postoperative thoracostomy output, amount of bolus IV fluids and peak fluid overload on the incidence and odds of developing a deep surgical site infection following pediatric cardiothoracic surgery. A single-center, nested, retrospective, matched case-control study. A 26-bed cardiac ICU in a 303-bed tertiary care pediatric hospital. Cases with deep surgical site infection following cardiothoracic surgery were identified retrospectively from January 2010 through December 2013 and individually matched to controls at a ratio of 1:2 by age, gender, Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery score, Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardiothoracic Surgery category, primary cardiac diagnosis, and procedure. None. Twelve cases with deep surgical site infection were identified and matched to 24 controls without detectable differences in perioperative clinical characteristics. Deep surgical site infection cases had larger thoracostomy output and bolus IV fluid volumes at 6, 24, and 48 hours postoperatively compared with controls. For every 1 mL/kg of thoracostomy output, the odds of developing a deep surgical site infection increase by 13%. By receiver operative characteristic curve analysis, a cutoff of 49 mL/kg of thoracostomy output at 48 hours best discriminates the development of deep surgical site infection (sensitivity 83%, specificity 83%). Peak fluid overload was greater in cases than matched controls (12.5% vs 6%; p operative characteristic curve analysis, a threshold value of 10% peak fluid overload was observed to identify deep surgical site infection (sensitivity 67%, specificity 79%). Conditional logistic regression of peak fluid overload greater than 10% on the development of deep surgical site infection yielded an odds ratio of 9.4 (95% CI, 2-46.2). Increased postoperative peak fluid overload and cumulative thoracostomy output were associated with deep surgical site infection after pediatric

  4. Cumulative Author Index for Soviet Laser Bibliographies Nos. 67-93, September 1983-February 1989

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-02-01

    C) 0 00 I: Cumulative Author Index for Soviet Laser Bibliographies September 1983 - February 1989 A Defense S&T Intelligence Special Purpose Document...90 CUMULATIVE AUTHOR INDEX FOR SOVIET LASER BIBLIOGRAPHIES Nos. 67-93 SEPTEMBER 1983 - FEBRUARY 1989 Date of Report March 31, 19 Vice Director for...RECIPIENT’S CATALOG NUMBER DST-2700Z-001-90 4. TITLE (and Subtitle) S. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED CUMULATIVE AUTHOR INDEX FOR SOVIET LASER

  5. Medication incidents reported to an online incident reporting system.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Alrwisan, Adel

    2011-01-15

    AIMS: Approximately 20% of deaths from adverse events are related to medication incidents, costing the NHS an additional £500 million annually. Less than 5% of adverse events are reported. This study aims to assess the reporting rate of medication incidents in NHS facilities in the north east of Scotland, and to describe the types and outcomes of reported incidents among different services. Furthermore, we wished to quantify the proportion of reported incidents according to the reporters\\' profession. METHODS: A retrospective description was made of medication incidents reported to an online reporting system (DATIX) over a 46-month-period (July 2005 to April 2009). Reports originated from acute and community hospitals, mental health, and primary care facilities. RESULTS: Over the study period there were 2,666 incidents reported with a mean monthly reporting rate of 78.2\\/month (SD±16.9). 6.1% of all incidents resulted in harm, with insulin being the most commonly implicated medication. Nearly three-quarters (74.2%, n=1,978) of total incidents originated from acute hospitals. Administration incidents were implicated in the majority of the reported medication incidents (59%), followed by prescribing (10.8%) and dispensing (9.9%), while the nondescript "other medication incidents" accounted for 20.3% of total incidents. The majority of reports were made by nursing and midwifery staff (80%), with medical and dental professionals reporting the lowest number of incidents (n=56, 2%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of medication incidents in this study were reported by nursing and midwifery staff, and were due to administration incidents. There is a clear need to elucidate the reasons for the limited contribution of the medical and dental professionals to reporting medication incidents.

  6. Incidence of endocrine disorders in Indian adult male population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. V. S. Hari Kumar

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The comprehensive epidemiology of endocrine disorders is lacking from our country. Most of the available data pertain to the prevalence of diabetes and thyroid disorders only. We studied the incidence of endocrine disorders in a cohort of service personnel followed for a long duration. Materials and Methods: The data for this descriptive epidemiologic study were derived from the electronic medical records of the male service personnel enrolled between 1990 and 2015. They were recruited between the ages of 17 and 20 years in good health, and their morbidity data were derived from the medical records. We calculated the incidence rates as per person-years (py using appropriate statistical methods. Results: Our analysis includes 51,217 participants (median: age 33 years, range: 17–54 with a mean follow-up of 12.5 years. Yearly evaluation of the data gave a cumulative follow-up duration of 613,925 py. The incidence of diabetes, obesity, and dyslipidemia was 0.41, 0.23, and 0.12 per 1000 py, respectively. The incidence of thyroid, parathyroid, pituitary, adrenal, and metabolic bone disorders was 3.9, 8.6, 1.6, 0.81, and 0.97 per 100,000 py, respectively. Conclusion: Our cohort had lower incidence rates of endocrine disorders when compared with the Western population. Long-term epidemiological studies are essential to identify the demographic trends of the endocrine disorders in India.

  7. High selection pressure promotes increase in cumulative adaptive culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolin Vegvari

    Full Text Available The evolution of cumulative adaptive culture has received widespread interest in recent years, especially the factors promoting its occurrence. Current evolutionary models suggest that an increase in population size may lead to an increase in cultural complexity via a higher rate of cultural transmission and innovation. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the role of natural selection in the evolution of cultural complexity. Here we use an agent-based simulation model to demonstrate that high selection pressure in the form of resource pressure promotes the accumulation of adaptive culture in spite of small population sizes and high innovation costs. We argue that the interaction of demography and selection is important, and that neither can be considered in isolation. We predict that an increase in cultural complexity is most likely to occur under conditions of population pressure relative to resource availability. Our model may help to explain why culture change can occur without major environmental change. We suggest that understanding the interaction between shifting selective pressures and demography is essential for explaining the evolution of cultural complexity.

  8. Cumulative sum quality control for calibrated breast density measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heine, John J.; Cao Ke; Beam, Craig

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Breast density is a significant breast cancer risk factor. Although various methods are used to estimate breast density, there is no standard measurement for this important factor. The authors are developing a breast density standardization method for use in full field digital mammography (FFDM). The approach calibrates for interpatient acquisition technique differences. The calibration produces a normalized breast density pixel value scale. The method relies on first generating a baseline (BL) calibration dataset, which required extensive phantom imaging. Standardizing prospective mammograms with calibration data generated in the past could introduce unanticipated error in the standardized output if the calibration dataset is no longer valid. Methods: Sample points from the BL calibration dataset were imaged approximately biweekly over an extended timeframe. These serial samples were used to evaluate the BL dataset reproducibility and quantify the serial calibration accuracy. The cumulative sum (Cusum) quality control method was used to evaluate the serial sampling. Results: There is considerable drift in the serial sample points from the BL calibration dataset that is x-ray beam dependent. Systematic deviation from the BL dataset caused significant calibration errors. This system drift was not captured with routine system quality control measures. Cusum analysis indicated that the drift is a sign of system wear and eventual x-ray tube failure. Conclusions: The BL calibration dataset must be monitored and periodically updated, when necessary, to account for sustained system variations to maintain the calibration accuracy.

  9. Cumulative sum quality control for calibrated breast density measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heine, John J.; Cao Ke; Beam, Craig [Cancer Prevention and Control Division, Moffitt Cancer Center, 12902 Magnolia Drive, Tampa, Florida 33612 (United States); Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, 1603 W. Taylor St., Chicago, Illinois 60612 (United States)

    2009-12-15

    Purpose: Breast density is a significant breast cancer risk factor. Although various methods are used to estimate breast density, there is no standard measurement for this important factor. The authors are developing a breast density standardization method for use in full field digital mammography (FFDM). The approach calibrates for interpatient acquisition technique differences. The calibration produces a normalized breast density pixel value scale. The method relies on first generating a baseline (BL) calibration dataset, which required extensive phantom imaging. Standardizing prospective mammograms with calibration data generated in the past could introduce unanticipated error in the standardized output if the calibration dataset is no longer valid. Methods: Sample points from the BL calibration dataset were imaged approximately biweekly over an extended timeframe. These serial samples were used to evaluate the BL dataset reproducibility and quantify the serial calibration accuracy. The cumulative sum (Cusum) quality control method was used to evaluate the serial sampling. Results: There is considerable drift in the serial sample points from the BL calibration dataset that is x-ray beam dependent. Systematic deviation from the BL dataset caused significant calibration errors. This system drift was not captured with routine system quality control measures. Cusum analysis indicated that the drift is a sign of system wear and eventual x-ray tube failure. Conclusions: The BL calibration dataset must be monitored and periodically updated, when necessary, to account for sustained system variations to maintain the calibration accuracy.

  10. Cumulative biological impacts of The Geysers geothermal development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brownell, J.A.

    1981-10-01

    The cumulative nature of current and potential future biological impacts from full geothermal development in the steam-dominated portion of The Geysers-Calistoga KGRA are identified by the California Energy Commission staff. Vegetation, wildlife, and aquatic resources information have been reviewed and evaluated. Impacts and their significance are discussed and staff recommendations presented. Development of 3000 MW of electrical energy will result in direct vegetation losses of 2790 acres, based on an estimate of 11.5% loss per lease-hold of 0.93 acres/MW. If unmitigated, losses will be greater. Indirect vegetation losses and damage occur from steam emissions which contain elements (particularly boron) toxic to vegetation. Other potential impacts include chronic low-level boron exposure, acid rain, local climate modification, and mechanical damage. A potential exists for significant reduction and changes in wildlife from direct habitat loss and development influences. Highly erosive soils create the potential for significant reduction of aquatic resources, particularly game fish. Toxic spills have caused some temporary losses of aquatic species. Staff recommends monitoring and implementation of mitigation measures at all geothermal development stages.

  11. Cumulative causation, market transition, and emigration from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Zai; Chunyu, Miao David; Zhuang, Guotu; Ye, Wenzhen

    2008-11-01

    This article reports findings from a recent survey of international migration from China's Fujian Province to the United States. Using the ethnosurvey approach developed in the Mexican Migration Project, the authors conducted surveys in migrant-sending communities in China as well as in destination communities in New York City. Hypotheses are derived from the international migration literature and the market transition debate. The results are generally consistent with hypotheses derived from cumulative causation of migration; however, geographical location creates some differences in migration patterns to the United States. In China as in Mexico, the existence of migration networks increases the propensity of migration for others in the community. In contrast to the Mexican case, among Chinese immigrants, having a previously migrated household member increases the propensity of other household members to migrate only after the debt for previous migration is paid off. In step with market transition theory, the authors also find that political power influences the migration experience from the coastal Fujian Province.

  12. Correlated stopping, proton clusters and higher order proton cumulants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bzdak, Adam [AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Physics and Applied Computer Science, Krakow (Poland); Koch, Volker [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Nuclear Science Division, Berkeley, CA (United States); Skokov, Vladimir [RIKEN/BNL, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY (United States)

    2017-05-15

    We investigate possible effects of correlations between stopped nucleons on higher order proton cumulants at low energy heavy-ion collisions. We find that fluctuations of the number of wounded nucleons N{sub part} lead to rather nontrivial dependence of the correlations on the centrality; however, this effect is too small to explain the large and positive four-proton correlations found in the preliminary data collected by the STAR collaboration at √(s) = 7.7 GeV. We further demonstrate that, by taking into account additional proton clustering, we are able to qualitatively reproduce the preliminary experimental data. We speculate that this clustering may originate either from collective/multi-collision stopping which is expected to be effective at lower energies or from a possible first-order phase transition, or from (attractive) final state interactions. To test these ideas we propose to measure a mixed multi-particle correlation between stopped protons and a produced particle (e.g. pion, antiproton). (orig.)

  13. New tests of cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Birnbaum

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Previous tests of cumulative prospect theory (CPT and of the priority heuristic (PH found evidence contradicting these two models of risky decision making. However, those tests were criticized because they had characteristics that might ``trigger'' use of other heuristics. This paper presents new tests that avoid those characteristics. Expected values of the gambles are nearly equal in each choice. In addition, if a person followed expected value (EV, expected utility (EU, CPT, or PH in these tests, she would shift her preferences in the same direction as shifts in EV or EU. In contrast, the transfer of attention exchange model (TAX and a similarity model predict that people will reverse preferences in the opposite direction. Results contradict the PH, even when PH is modified to include a preliminary similarity evaluation using the PH parameters. New tests of probability-consequence interaction were also conducted. Strong interactions were observed, contrary to PH. These results add to the growing bodies of evidence showing that neither CPT nor PH is an accurate description of risky decision making.

  14. Cumulative exposure to carbon monoxide during the day

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joumard, R. (INRETS, 69 - Bron (FR))

    The carbon monoxide, CO, has the advantage of being very easily and accurately measured under various conditions. In addition, it allows the translation of CO concentrations into their biological effects. The cumulative CO exposure should be considered according to current environment conditions during a given period of life, e.g. the day. In addition, the translation of concentrations and exposure times of CO fixed on blood haemoglobine (carboxyhaemoglobine) depends on physiological factors such as age, size, sex, or physical activity. This paper gives some examples of CO exposure translated into curves of carboxyhaemoglobine: case of 92 persons whose schedule was studied in details, of customs officers whose exposure was measured during one week, or other theoretical cases. In all the cases studied, smoking is by far the first factor of pollution by carbon monoxide. If not considering this case, the CO contents observed are preoccupying for sensitive subjects (in particular children) only in very rare cases. Furthermore, this approach allows the assessment of maximal allowable concentrations during specific exposures (work, e.g. in a tunnel) by integrating them into normal life conditions and population current exposure.

  15. Variant at serotonin transporter gene predicts increased imitation in toddlers: relevance to the human capacity for cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Kari Britt; Asherson, Philip; Blake, Peter R; Fenstermacher, Susan K; Saudino, Kimberly J

    2016-04-01

    Cumulative culture ostensibly arises from a set of sociocognitive processes which includes high-fidelity production imitation, prosociality and group identification. The latter processes are facilitated by unconscious imitation or social mimicry. The proximate mechanisms of individual variation in imitation may thus shed light on the evolutionary history of the human capacity for cumulative culture. In humans, a genetic component to variation in the propensity for imitation is likely. A functional length polymorphism in the serotonin transporter gene, the short allele at 5HTTLPR, is associated with heightened responsiveness to the social environment as well as anatomical and activational differences in the brain's imitation circuity. Here, we evaluate whether this polymorphism contributes to variation in production imitation and social mimicry. Toddlers with the short allele at 5HTTLPR exhibit increased social mimicry and increased fidelity of demonstrated novel object manipulations. Thus, the short allele is associated with two forms of imitation that may underlie the human capacity for cumulative culture. The short allele spread relatively recently, possibly due to selection, and its frequency varies dramatically on a global scale. Diverse observations can be unified via conceptualization of 5HTTLPR as influencing the propensity to experience others' emotions, actions and sensations, potentially through the mirror mechanism. © 2016 The Author(s).

  16. Measurements of diamond-turned copper mirrors at glancing incidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, W.D.; Saito, T.T.

    1987-01-01

    The results of glancing incidence absorptance measurements performed on diamond-turned copper mirrors are presented. A photoacoustic calorimetry technique is used in which the output from a low power, chopped cw Nd:YAG laser (1.06 μm) is incident upon the mirror at angles of incidence from 0 to 87 0 , for both s and p-polarizations. Measurements are obtained as a function of the diamond turning groove orientation with respect to the plane of incidence. Minimum absorptance, at high angles of incidence, is achieved with s-polarized light and with the grooves aligned parallel to the plane of incidence. The affects on the absorptance of a large scratch at glancing incidence are also described

  17. Measurements of diamond turned copper mirrors at glancing incidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, W.D.; Saito, T.T.

    1987-01-01

    The results of glancing incidence absorptance measurements performed on diamond turned copper mirrors are presented. A photoacoustic calorimetry technique is used in which the output from a low power, chopped cw Nd:YAG laser (1.06 μm) is incident upon the mirror at angles of incidence from 0 to 87 0 , for both s and p-polarizations. Measurements are obtained as a function of the diamond turning groove orientation with respect to the plane of incidence. Minimum absorptance at high angles of incidence is achieved with s-polarized light and with the grooves aligned parallel to the plane of incidence. The effects on the absorptance of a large scratch at glancing incidence are also described

  18. Prevalence Incidence Mixture Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package and webtool fits Prevalence Incidence Mixture models to left-censored and irregularly interval-censored time to event data that is commonly found in screening cohorts assembled from electronic health records. Absolute and relative risk can be estimated for simple random sampling, and stratified sampling (the two approaches of superpopulation and a finite population are supported for target populations). Non-parametric (absolute risks only), semi-parametric, weakly-parametric (using B-splines), and some fully parametric (such as the logistic-Weibull) models are supported.

  19. Improving freight crash incident management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the most effective way to mitigate the effect of freight : crash incidents on Louisiana freeways. Candidate incident management strategies were reviewed from : practice in other states and from those publi...

  20. Cancer incidence in kidney transplant recipients: a study protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pita-Fernandez, Salvador; Valdes-Cañedo, Francisco; Pertega-Diaz, Sonia; Seoane-Pillado, Maria Teresa; Seijo-Bestilleiro, Rocio

    2009-01-01

    methods will be applied to estimate the cumulative incidence of cancer and to identify variables associated to its occurrence. Information about cancer incidence in kidney transplant patients could be useful to adapt the guidelines on post-kidney transplant follow-up on tumour screening, and evaluate the impact of intervention measures for the prevention of cancer in these patients

  1. Brains striving for coherence: Long-term cumulative plot formation in the default mode network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tylén, K; Christensen, P; Roepstorff, A; Lund, T; Østergaard, S; Donald, M

    2015-11-01

    Many everyday activities, such as engaging in conversation or listening to a story, require us to sustain attention over a prolonged period of time while integrating and synthesizing complex episodic content into a coherent mental model. Humans are remarkably capable of navigating and keeping track of all the parallel social activities of everyday life even when confronted with interruptions or changes in the environment. However, the underlying cognitive and neurocognitive mechanisms of such long-term integration and profiling of information remain a challenge to neuroscience. While brain activity is generally traceable within the short time frame of working memory (milliseconds to seconds), these integrative processes last for minutes, hours or even days. Here we report two experiments on story comprehension. Experiment I establishes a cognitive dissociation between our comprehension of plot and incidental facts in narratives: when episodic material allows for long-term integration in a coherent plot, we recall fewer factual details. However, when plot formation is challenged, we pay more attention to incidental facts. Experiment II investigates the neural underpinnings of plot formation. Results suggest a central role for the brain's default mode network related to comprehension of coherent narratives while incoherent episodes rather activate the frontoparietal control network. Moreover, an analysis of cortical activity as a function of the cumulative integration of narrative material into a coherent story reveals to linear modulations of right hemisphere posterior temporal and parietal regions. Together these findings point to key neural mechanisms involved in the fundamental human capacity for cumulative plot formation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Knowledge-Sharing Networks in Hunter-Gatherers and the Evolution of Cumulative Culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salali, Gul Deniz; Chaudhary, Nikhil; Thompson, James; Grace, Olwen Megan; van der Burgt, Xander M; Dyble, Mark; Page, Abigail E; Smith, Daniel; Lewis, Jerome; Mace, Ruth; Vinicius, Lucio; Migliano, Andrea Bamberg

    2016-09-26

    Humans possess the unique ability for cumulative culture [1, 2]. It has been argued that hunter-gatherer's complex social structure [3-9] has facilitated the evolution of cumulative culture by allowing information exchange among large pools of individuals [10-13]. However, empirical evidence for the interaction between social structure and cultural transmission is scant [14]. Here we examine the reported co-occurrence of plant uses between individuals in dyads (which we define as their "shared knowledge" of plant uses) in BaYaka Pygmies from Congo. We studied reported uses of 33 plants of 219 individuals from four camps. We show that (1) plant uses by BaYaka fall into three main domains: medicinal, foraging, and social norms/beliefs; (2) most medicinal plants have known bioactive properties, and some are positively associated with children's BMI, suggesting that their use is adaptive; (3) knowledge of medicinal plants is mainly shared between spouses and biological and affinal kin; and (4) knowledge of plant uses associated with foraging and social norms is shared more widely among campmates, regardless of relatedness, and is important for camp-wide activities that require cooperation. Our results show the interdependence between social structure and knowledge sharing. We propose that long-term pair bonds, affinal kin recognition, exogamy, and multi-locality create ties between unrelated families, facilitating the transmission of medicinal knowledge and its fitness implications. Additionally, multi-family camps with low inter-relatedness between camp members provide a framework for the exchange of functional information related to cooperative activities beyond the family unit, such as foraging and regulation of social life. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Computing Cumulative Interest and Principal Paid For a Calendar Year

    OpenAIRE

    John O. MASON

    2011-01-01

    This paper demonstrates how easy it is use Microsoft Excel’s CUMPRINC and CUMIPMT functions to compute principal and interest paid for an entire year, even though the payments were made monthly. The CUMPRINC function computes the principal paid by a series of loan payments; the CUMIPMT function computes the interest paid. These two functions provide an alternative to preparing a monthly loan amortization schedule and adding up the amounts of monthly interest paid and principal paid for the ye...

  4. Increasing incidence of pyogenic spondylodiscitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kehrer, Michala; Pedersen, Court; Jensen, Thøger G

    2014-01-01

    Smaller studies indicate that the incidence of pyogenic spondylodiscitis is increasing, possible related to a growing elderly population. Data supporting this is sparse, and we therefore studied patient characteristics and changes in spondylodiscitis incidence 1995-2008.......Smaller studies indicate that the incidence of pyogenic spondylodiscitis is increasing, possible related to a growing elderly population. Data supporting this is sparse, and we therefore studied patient characteristics and changes in spondylodiscitis incidence 1995-2008....

  5. Incidence of invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b disease in Italian children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tozzi, Alberto E.; Salmaso, Stefania; Atti, Marta L. Ciofi degli; Panei, Pietro; Anemona, Alessandra; Scuderi, Gabriella; Wassilak, Steven G.F.

    1997-01-01

    To estimate the incidence of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) invasive disease in Italian infants we performed a prospective study in a cohort of newborns enrolled for a randomized trial on safety and efficacy of three pertussis vaccines and followed for onset of serious disease or pertussis. The overall cumulative incidence observed in 15,601 children was 51.3/100,000 for all invasive Hib infections and 38.4/100,000 for Hib meningitis, over 27 months of observation. The incidence density of all invasive Hib diseases was 28.7/100,000 person-years, while meningitis occurred with an incidence of 21.5/100,000 person-years. Among the eight cases detected, six were meningitis, one sepsis, and one cellulitis. The child with sepsis died. The incidence and epidemiology of invasive Hib disease in Italy are comparable to those reported from other European countries. Cost-benefit analyses are needed for planning Italian vaccination policy

  6. Climate variability and increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue incidence in Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hii, Yien Ling; Rocklöv, Joacim; Ng, Nawi; Tang, Choon Siang; Pang, Fung Yin; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2009-11-11

    Dengue is currently a major public health burden in Asia Pacific Region. This study aims to establish an association between dengue incidence, mean temperature and precipitation, and further discuss how weather predictors influence the increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue in Singapore during the period 2000-2007. Weekly dengue incidence data, daily mean temperature and precipitation and the midyear population data in Singapore during 2000-2007 were retrieved and analysed. We employed a time series Poisson regression model including time factors such as time trends, lagged terms of weather predictors, considered autocorrelation, and accounted for changes in population size by offsetting. The weekly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were statistically significant related to the increases of dengue incidence in Singapore. Our findings showed that dengue incidence increased linearly at time lag of 5-16 and 5-20 weeks succeeding elevated temperature and precipitation, respectively. However, negative association occurred at lag week 17-20 with low weekly mean temperature as well as lag week 1-4 and 17-20 with low cumulative precipitation. As Singapore experienced higher weekly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation in the years 2004-2007, our results signified hazardous impacts of climate factors on the increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue cases. The ongoing global climate change might potentially increase the burden of dengue fever infection in near future.

  7. The Incidence of Eating Disorders in a Danish Nationwide Register Study Associations with Suicide Risk and Mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Zerwas, Stephanie; Larsen, Janne Tidselbak; Petersen, Liselotte; Thornton, Laura M.; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Bulik, Cynthia M.

    2015-01-01

    Our aim was to characterize the incidence rates and cumulative incidence of anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), and eating disorder not otherwise specified (EDNOS), and examine associations among eating disorder diagnoses, suicide attempts, and mortality. Individuals born in Denmark between 1989 and 2006 were included (N=966,141, 51.3% male). Eating disorders diagnoses (AN, Broad AN, BN, EDNOS) were drawn from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register (PCRR) and Danish Nationa...

  8. Incident Management: Process into Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaac, Gayle; Moore, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Tornados, shootings, fires--these are emergencies that require fast action by school district personnel, but they are not the only incidents that require risk management. The authors have introduced the National Incident Management System (NIMS) and the Incident Command System (ICS) and assured that these systems can help educators plan for and…

  9. Toward computational cumulative biology by combining models of biological datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faisal, Ali; Peltonen, Jaakko; Georgii, Elisabeth; Rung, Johan; Kaski, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    A main challenge of data-driven sciences is how to make maximal use of the progressively expanding databases of experimental datasets in order to keep research cumulative. We introduce the idea of a modeling-based dataset retrieval engine designed for relating a researcher's experimental dataset to earlier work in the field. The search is (i) data-driven to enable new findings, going beyond the state of the art of keyword searches in annotations, (ii) modeling-driven, to include both biological knowledge and insights learned from data, and (iii) scalable, as it is accomplished without building one unified grand model of all data. Assuming each dataset has been modeled beforehand, by the researchers or automatically by database managers, we apply a rapidly computable and optimizable combination model to decompose a new dataset into contributions from earlier relevant models. By using the data-driven decomposition, we identify a network of interrelated datasets from a large annotated human gene expression atlas. While tissue type and disease were major driving forces for determining relevant datasets, the found relationships were richer, and the model-based search was more accurate than the keyword search; moreover, it recovered biologically meaningful relationships that are not straightforwardly visible from annotations-for instance, between cells in different developmental stages such as thymocytes and T-cells. Data-driven links and citations matched to a large extent; the data-driven links even uncovered corrections to the publication data, as two of the most linked datasets were not highly cited and turned out to have wrong publication entries in the database.

  10. Cumulative childhood stress and autoimmune diseases in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dube, Shanta R; Fairweather, DeLisa; Pearson, William S; Felitti, Vincent J; Anda, Robert F; Croft, Janet B

    2009-02-01

    To examine whether childhood traumatic stress increased the risk of developing autoimmune diseases as an adult. Retrospective cohort study of 15,357 adult health maintenance organization members enrolled in the Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) Study from 1995 to 1997 in San Diego, California, and eligible for follow-up through 2005. ACEs included childhood physical, emotional, or sexual abuse; witnessing domestic violence; growing up with household substance abuse, mental illness, parental divorce, and/or an incarcerated household member. The total number of ACEs (ACE Score range = 0-8) was used as a measure of cumulative childhood stress. The outcome was hospitalizations for any of 21 selected autoimmune diseases and 4 immunopathology groupings: T- helper 1 (Th1) (e.g., idiopathic myocarditis); T-helper 2 (Th2) (e.g., myasthenia gravis); Th2 rheumatic (e.g., rheumatoid arthritis); and mixed Th1/Th2 (e.g., autoimmune hemolytic anemia). Sixty-four percent reported at least one ACE. The event rate (per 10,000 person-years) for a first hospitalization with any autoimmune disease was 31.4 in women and 34.4 in men. First hospitalizations for any autoimmune disease increased with increasing number of ACEs (p or=2 ACEs were at a 70% increased risk for hospitalizations with Th1, 80% increased risk for Th2, and 100% increased risk for rheumatic diseases (p Childhood traumatic stress increased the likelihood of hospitalization with a diagnosed autoimmune disease decades into adulthood. These findings are consistent with recent biological studies on the impact of early life stress on subsequent inflammatory responses.

  11. Integrating environmental monitoring with cumulative effects management and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronmiller, Joshua G; Noble, Bram F

    2018-05-01

    Cumulative effects (CE) monitoring is foundational to emerging regional and watershed CE management frameworks, yet monitoring is often poorly integrated with CE management and decision-making processes. The challenges are largely institutional and organizational, more so than scientific or technical. Calls for improved integration of monitoring with CE management and decision making are not new, but there has been limited research on how best to integrate environmental monitoring programs to ensure credible CE science and to deliver results that respond to the more immediate questions and needs of regulatory decision makers. This paper examines options for the integration of environmental monitoring with CE frameworks. Based on semistructured interviews with practitioners, regulators, and other experts in the Lower Athabasca, Alberta, Canada, 3 approaches to monitoring system design are presented. First, a distributed monitoring system, reflecting the current approach in the Lower Athabasca, where monitoring is delegated to different external programs and organizations; second, a 1-window system in which monitoring is undertaken by a single, in-house agency for the purpose of informing management and regulatory decision making; third, an independent system driven primarily by CE science and understanding causal relationships, with knowledge adopted for decision support where relevant to specific management questions. The strengths and limitations of each approach are presented. A hybrid approach may be optimal-an independent, nongovernment, 1-window model for CE science, monitoring, and information delivery-capitalizing on the strengths of distributed, 1-window, and independent monitoring systems while mitigating their weaknesses. If governments are committed to solving CE problems, they must invest in the long-term science needed to do so; at the same time, if science-based monitoring programs are to be sustainable over the long term, they must be responsive to

  12. Cumulative Effects of Barriers on the Movements of Forest Birds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Bélisle

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is a consensus of opinion that habitat fragmentation has deleterious effects on animal populations, primarily by inhibiting dispersal among remaining patches, there have been few explicit demonstrations of the ways by which degraded habitats actually constrain individual movement. Two impediments are primarily responsible for this paucity: it is difficult to separate the effects of habitat fragmentation (configuration from habitat loss (composition, and conventional measures of fragmented habitats are assumed to be, but probably are not, isotropic. We addressed these limitations by standardizing differences in forest cover in a clearly anisotropic configuration of habitat fragmentation by conducting a homing experiment with three species of forest birds in the Bow Valley of Banff National Park, Canada. Birds were translocated (1.2-3.5  km either parallel or perpendicular to four/five parallel barriers that are assumed to impede the cross-valley travel of forest-dependent animals. Taken together, individuals exhibited longer return times when they were translocated across these barriers, but differences among species suggest a more complex interpretation. A long-distance migrant (Yellow-rumped Warbler, Dendroica coronata behaved as predicted, but a short-distance migrant (Golden-crowned Kinglet, Regulus satrapa was indifferent to barrier configuration. A resident (Red-breasted Nuthatch, Sitta canadensis exhibited longer return times when it was translocated parallel to the barriers. Our results suggest that an anisotropic arrangement of small, open areas in fragmented landscapes can have a cumulative barrier effect on the movement of forest animals, but that both modelers and managers will have to acknowledge potentially counterintuitive differences among species to predict the effect that these may have on individual movement and, ultimately, dispersal.

  13. On the duration and intensity of cumulative advantage competitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Bo; Sun, Liyuan; Figueiredo, Daniel R.; Ribeiro, Bruno; Towsley, Don

    2015-11-01

    Network growth can be framed as a competition for edges among nodes in the network. As with various other social and physical systems, skill (fitness) and luck (random chance) act as fundamental forces driving competition dynamics. In the context of networks, cumulative advantage (CA)—the rich-get-richer effect—is seen as a driving principle governing the edge accumulation process. However, competitions coupled with CA exhibit non-trivial behavior and little is formally known about duration and intensity of CA competitions. By isolating two nodes in an ideal CA competition, we provide a mathematical understanding of how CA exacerbates the role of luck in detriment of skill. We show, for instance, that when nodes start with few edges, an early stroke of luck can place the less skilled in the lead for an extremely long period of time, a phenomenon we call ‘struggle of the fittest’. We prove that duration of a simple skill and luck competition model exhibit power-law tails when CA is present, regardless of skill difference, which is in sharp contrast to the exponential tails when fitness is distinct but CA is absent. We also prove that competition intensity is always upper bounded by an exponential tail, irrespective of CA and skills. Thus, CA competitions can be extremely long (infinite mean, depending on fitness ratio) but almost never very intense. The theoretical results are corroborated by extensive numerical simulations. Our findings have important implications to competitions not only among nodes in networks but also in contexts that leverage socio-physical models embodying CA competitions.

  14. On the duration and intensity of cumulative advantage competitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Bo; Towsley, Don; Sun, Liyuan; Figueiredo, Daniel R; Ribeiro, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Network growth can be framed as a competition for edges among nodes in the network. As with various other social and physical systems, skill (fitness) and luck (random chance) act as fundamental forces driving competition dynamics. In the context of networks, cumulative advantage (CA)—the rich-get-richer effect—is seen as a driving principle governing the edge accumulation process. However, competitions coupled with CA exhibit non-trivial behavior and little is formally known about duration and intensity of CA competitions. By isolating two nodes in an ideal CA competition, we provide a mathematical understanding of how CA exacerbates the role of luck in detriment of skill. We show, for instance, that when nodes start with few edges, an early stroke of luck can place the less skilled in the lead for an extremely long period of time, a phenomenon we call ‘struggle of the fittest’. We prove that duration of a simple skill and luck competition model exhibit power-law tails when CA is present, regardless of skill difference, which is in sharp contrast to the exponential tails when fitness is distinct but CA is absent. We also prove that competition intensity is always upper bounded by an exponential tail, irrespective of CA and skills. Thus, CA competitions can be extremely long (infinite mean, depending on fitness ratio) but almost never very intense. The theoretical results are corroborated by extensive numerical simulations. Our findings have important implications to competitions not only among nodes in networks but also in contexts that leverage socio-physical models embodying CA competitions. (paper)

  15. Measuring a fair and ambitious climate agreement using cumulative emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, Glen P; Andrew, Robbie M; Solomon, Susan; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Policy makers have called for a ‘fair and ambitious’ global climate agreement. Scientific constraints, such as the allowable carbon emissions to avoid exceeding a 2 °C global warming limit with 66% probability, can help define ambitious approaches to climate targets. However, fairly sharing the mitigation challenge to meet a global target involves human values rather than just scientific facts. We develop a framework based on cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide to compare the consistency of countries’ current emission pledges to the ambition of keeping global temperatures below 2 °C, and, further, compare two alternative methods of sharing the remaining emission allowance. We focus on the recent pledges and other official statements of the EU, USA, and China. The EU and US pledges are close to a 2 °C level of ambition only if the remaining emission allowance is distributed based on current emission shares, which is unlikely to be viewed as ‘fair and ambitious’ by others who presently emit less. China’s stated emissions target also differs from measures of global fairness, owing to emissions that continue to grow into the 2020s. We find that, combined, the EU, US, and Chinese pledges leave little room for other countries to emit CO 2 if a 2 °C limit is the objective, essentially requiring all other countries to move towards per capita emissions 7 to 14 times lower than the EU, USA, or China by 2030. We argue that a fair and ambitious agreement for a 2 °C limit that would be globally inclusive and effective in the long term will require stronger mitigation than the goals currently proposed. Given such necessary and unprecedented mitigation and the current lack of availability of some key technologies, we suggest a new diplomatic effort directed at ensuring that the necessary technologies become available in the near future. (letter)

  16. Increasing incidence of hip fracture in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wongtriratanachai, Prasit; Luevitoonvechkij, Sirichai; Songpatanasilp, Thawee; Sribunditkul, Siripoj; Leerapun, Taninnit; Phadungkiat, Sompant; Rojanasthien, Sattaya

    2013-01-01

    Hip fracture is a major health problem in Thailand. This study attempted to examine the incidence, related factors, and trends of hip fracture in Chiang Mai, Thailand. All hip fracture data among patients aged 50 yr or older were collected from hospitals in Chiang Mai, Thailand from August 1, 2006 to July 3, 2007. Data from the 1997 Chiang Mai hip fracture study were used for comparison. In the study period, 690 hip fractures were reported: 203 males and 487 females (male to female ratio was 1 to 2.4), with a mean age of 76.7 yr. The estimated cumulative incidence was 181.0 per 100,000, and the adjusted incidence was 253.3 (males: 135.9; females: 367.9). A simple fall was the most common mechanism (79%) of fracture, and 80% of the hip fractures occurred in patients aged 70 yr or older. The highest incidence of hip fracture was observed in patients older than 85 yr (1239). At 6 mo postfracture, most patients (61%) used a walking aid. Compared with the 1997 data, hip fracture incidence had increased by an average of 2% per yr, and the incidence of hip fracture had increased significantly from August 1, 2006 to July 31, 2007, especially in patients older than 75 yr. In patients older than 84 yr, the incidence increased by a factor of 2. Urgent strategies for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis, and hence hip fracture, are needed. Copyright © 2013 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The "true" incidence of surgically treated deep prosthetic joint infection after 32,896 primary total hip arthroplasties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gundtoft, Per Hviid; Overgaard, Søren; Schønheyder, Henrik Carl

    2015-01-01

    using an algorithm incorporating data from microbiological, prescription, and clinical biochemistry databases and clinical findings from the medical records. We calculated cumulative incidence with 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: 32,896 primary THAs were identified. Of these, 1,546 had first-time...

  18. Cervical cancer incidence after normal cytological sample in routine screening using SurePath, ThinPrep, and conventional cytology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozemeijer, Kirsten; Naber, Steffie K; Penning, Corine

    2017-01-01

    of histo- and cytopathology in the Netherlands (PALGA), January 2000 to March 2013.Population Women with 5 924 474 normal screening samples (23 833 123 person years).Exposure Use of SurePath or ThinPrep versus conventional cytology as screening test.Main outcome measure 72 month cumulative incidence...

  19. Cumulative effects of planned industrial development and climate change on marine ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available With increasing human population, large scale climate changes, and the interaction of multiple stressors, understanding cumulative effects on marine ecosystems is increasingly important. Two major drivers of change in coastal and marine ecosystems are industrial developments with acute impacts on local ecosystems, and global climate change stressors with widespread impacts. We conducted a cumulative effects mapping analysis of the marine waters of British Columbia, Canada, under different scenarios: climate change and planned developments. At the coast-wide scale, climate change drove the largest change in cumulative effects with both widespread impacts and high vulnerability scores. Where the impacts of planned developments occur, planned industrial and pipeline activities had high cumulative effects, but the footprint of these effects was comparatively localized. Nearshore habitats were at greatest risk from planned industrial and pipeline activities; in particular, the impacts of planned pipelines on rocky intertidal habitats were predicted to cause the highest change in cumulative effects. This method of incorporating planned industrial development in cumulative effects mapping allows explicit comparison of different scenarios with the potential to be used in environmental impact assessments at various scales. Its use allows resource managers to consider cumulative effect hotspots when making decisions regarding industrial developments and avoid unacceptable cumulative effects. Management needs to consider both global and local stressors in managing marine ecosystems for the protection of biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services.

  20. Cumulative effective dose associated with radiography and CT of adolescents with spinal injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemburg, Stefan P; Peters, Soeren A; Roggenland, Daniela; Nicolas, Volkmar; Heyer, Christoph M

    2010-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze the quantity and distribution of cumulative effective doses in diagnostic imaging of adolescents with spinal injuries. At a level 1 trauma center from July 2003 through June 2009, imaging procedures during initial evaluation and hospitalization and after discharge of all patients 10-20 years old with spinal fractures were retrospectively analyzed. The cumulative effective doses for all imaging studies were calculated, and the doses to patients with spinal injuries who had multiple traumatic injuries were compared with the doses to patients with spinal injuries but without multiple injuries. The significance level was set at 5%. Imaging studies of 72 patients (32 with multiple injuries; average age, 17.5 years) entailed a median cumulative effective dose of 18.89 mSv. Patients with multiple injuries had a significantly higher total cumulative effective dose (29.70 versus 10.86 mSv, p cumulative effective dose to multiple injury patients during the initial evaluation (18.39 versus 2.83 mSv, p cumulative effective dose. Adolescents with spinal injuries receive a cumulative effective dose equal to that of adult trauma patients and nearly three times that of pediatric trauma patients. Areas of focus in lowering cumulative effective dose should be appropriate initial estimation of trauma severity and careful selection of CT scan parameters.