A cross-sectional, randomized cluster sample survey of household vulnerability to extreme heat among slum dwellers in ahmedabad, india.

Science.gov (United States)

Tran, Kathy V; Azhar, Gulrez S; Nair, Rajesh; Knowlton, Kim; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Mavalankar, Dileep; Hess, Jeremy

2013-06-18

Extreme heat is a significant public health concern in India; extreme heat hazards are projected to increase in frequency and severity with climate change. Few of the factors driving population heat vulnerability are documented, though poverty is a presumed risk factor. To facilitate public health preparedness, an assessment of factors affecting vulnerability among slum dwellers was conducted in summer 2011 in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. Indicators of heat exposure, susceptibility to heat illness, and adaptive capacity, all of which feed into heat vulnerability, was assessed through a cross-sectional household survey using randomized multistage cluster sampling. Associations between heat-related morbidity and vulnerability factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to account for clustering effects. Age, preexisting medical conditions, work location, and access to health information and resources were associated with self-reported heat illness. Several of these variables were unique to this study. As sociodemographics, occupational heat exposure, and access to resources were shown to increase vulnerability, future interventions (e.g., health education) might target specific populations among Ahmedabad urban slum dwellers to reduce vulnerability to extreme heat. Surveillance and evaluations of future interventions may also be worthwhile.

[Heat vulnerability assessment in Jinan city: a comparison between residents living in urban centers and urban-fringe areas].

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Fangjun; Xin, Zheng; Zhou, Lin; Bai, Li; Wang, Yongming; Gu, Shaohua; Liu, Shouqin; Li, Mengmeng; Sang, Shaowei; Zhang, Ji; Liu, Qiyong

2014-06-01

To find out the differences in regional characteristics of heat vulnerability between people living in urban centers and urban-fringe areas of Jinan city so as to provide basis for the development of adaptation measures to heat. A cross-sectional survey on heat vulnerability was conducted in urban center and urban-fringe areas of Jinan city, using a self-designed questionnaire among 801 residents at the age of 16 years or older in August 2013. Data of 23 indicators related to heat vulnerability were collected and aggregated to 7 dimensions:health and medical insurance, social networks, heat perception and adaptive behavior, economic status, resources, living environment and working environment. An index score was calculated using a balanced weighted average approach for each dimension, ranging from 0 to 1, with the closer to 1 as greater vulnerability. The scores on heat perception and adaptive behavior, economic status, resources and working environment dimensions for urban-fringe areas were 0.42,0.63,0.55 and 0.62, statistically significantly higher than the urban center area of 0.41,0.51,0.26 and 0.41. Scores of living environment, social networks and health/medical insurance dimensions for urban center area were 0.57,0.49 and 0.31, which were all higher than the urban-fringe areas of 0.50,0.46 and 0.25, with differences statistically significant. Residents living in the urban center might be more vulnerable to heat in terms of living environment, health/medical insurance and social networks while residents living in the urban-fringe areas might more be vulnerable in terms of heat perception and adaptive behavior, economic status, life resources and working environment. These facts indicated that heat vulnerability among residents could be quite different, even at a fine geographic sale. We would thus suggest that intervention strategies on protecting people from heat, should be more targeted.

Cumulant generating function formula of heat transfer in ballistic systems with lead-lead coupling

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Huanan; Agarwalla, Bijay Kumar; Wang, Jian-Sheng

2012-10-01

Based on a two-time observation protocol, we consider heat transfer in a given time interval tM in a lead-junction-lead system taking coupling between the leads into account. In view of the two-time observation, consistency conditions are carefully verified in our specific family of quantum histories. Furthermore, its implication is briefly explored. Then using the nonequilibrium Green's function method, we obtain an exact formula for the cumulant generating function for heat transfer between the two leads, valid in both transient and steady-state regimes. Also, a compact formula for the cumulant generating function in the long-time limit is derived, for which the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation symmetry is explicitly verified. In addition, we briefly discuss Di Ventra's repartitioning trick regarding whether the repartitioning procedure of the total Hamiltonian affects the nonequilibrium steady-state current fluctuation. All kinds of properties of nonequilibrium current fluctuations, such as the fluctuation theorem in different time regimes, could be readily given according to these exact formulas.

A heat vulnerability index to improve urban public health management in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Science.gov (United States)

Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Muller-Karger, Frank E; Otis, Daniel; McCarthy, Matthew J; Rodríguez, Ernesto

2018-05-01

Increased frequency and length of high heat episodes are leading to more cardiovascular issues and asthmatic responses among the population of San Juan, the capital of the island of Puerto Rico, USA. An urban heat island effect, which leads to foci of higher temperatures in some urban areas, can raise heat-related mortality. The objective of this research is to map the risk of high temperature in particular locations by creating heat maps of the city of San Juan. The heat vulnerability index (HVI) maps were developed using images collected by satellite-based remote sensing combined with census data. Land surface temperature was assessed using images from the Thermal Infrared Sensor flown on Landsat 8. Social determinants (e.g., age, unemployment, education and social isolation, and health insurance coverage) were analyzed by census tract. The data were examined in the context of land cover maps generated using products from the Puerto Rico Terrestrial Gap Analysis Project (USDA Forest Service). All variables were set in order to transform the indicators expressed in different units into indices between 0 and 1, and the HVI was calculated as sum of score. The tract with highest index was considered to be the most vulnerable and the lowest to be the least vulnerable. Five vulnerability classes were mapped (very high, high, moderate, low, and very low). The hottest and the most vulnerable tracts corresponded to highly built areas, including the Luis Munoz International Airport, seaports, parking lots, and high-density residential areas. Several variables contributed to increased vulnerability, including higher rates of the population living alone, disabilities, advanced age, and lack of health insurance coverage. Coolest areas corresponded to vegetated landscapes and urban water bodies. The urban HVI map will be useful to health officers, emergency preparedness personnel, the National Weather Service, and San Juan residents, as it helps to prepare for and to mitigate

A heat vulnerability index to improve urban public health management in San Juan, Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Muller-Karger, Frank E.; Otis, Daniel; McCarthy, Matthew J.; Rodríguez, Ernesto

2018-05-01

Increased frequency and length of high heat episodes are leading to more cardiovascular issues and asthmatic responses among the population of San Juan, the capital of the island of Puerto Rico, USA. An urban heat island effect, which leads to foci of higher temperatures in some urban areas, can raise heat-related mortality. The objective of this research is to map the risk of high temperature in particular locations by creating heat maps of the city of San Juan. The heat vulnerability index (HVI) maps were developed using images collected by satellite-based remote sensing combined with census data. Land surface temperature was assessed using images from the Thermal Infrared Sensor flown on Landsat 8. Social determinants (e.g., age, unemployment, education and social isolation, and health insurance coverage) were analyzed by census tract. The data were examined in the context of land cover maps generated using products from the Puerto Rico Terrestrial Gap Analysis Project (USDA Forest Service). All variables were set in order to transform the indicators expressed in different units into indices between 0 and 1, and the HVI was calculated as sum of score. The tract with highest index was considered to be the most vulnerable and the lowest to be the least vulnerable. Five vulnerability classes were mapped (very high, high, moderate, low, and very low). The hottest and the most vulnerable tracts corresponded to highly built areas, including the Luis Munoz International Airport, seaports, parking lots, and high-density residential areas. Several variables contributed to increased vulnerability, including higher rates of the population living alone, disabilities, advanced age, and lack of health insurance coverage. Coolest areas corresponded to vegetated landscapes and urban water bodies. The urban HVI map will be useful to health officers, emergency preparedness personnel, the National Weather Service, and San Juan residents, as it helps to prepare for and to mitigate

Playing It Safe: Assessing Cumulative Impact and Social Vulnerability through an Environmental Justice Screening Method in the South Coast Air Basin, California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Justin Scoggins

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Regulatory agencies, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA and state authorities like the California Air Resources Board (CARB, have sought to address the concerns of environmental justice (EJ advocates who argue that chemical-by-chemical and source-specific assessments of potential health risks of environmental hazards do not reflect the multiple environmental and social stressors faced by vulnerable communities. We propose an Environmental Justice Screening Method (EJSM as a relatively simple, flexible and transparent way to examine the relative rank of cumulative impacts and social vulnerability within metropolitan regions and determine environmental justice areas based on more than simply the demographics of income and race. We specifically organize 23 indicator metrics into three categories: (1 hazard proximity and land use; (2 air pollution exposure and estimated health risk; and (3 social and health vulnerability. For hazard proximity, the EJSM uses GIS analysis to create a base map by intersecting land use data with census block polygons, and calculates hazard proximity measures based on locations within various buffer distances. These proximity metrics are then summarized to the census tract level where they are combined with tract centroid-based estimates of pollution exposure and health risk and socio-economic status (SES measures. The result is a cumulative impacts (CI score for ranking neighborhoods within regions that can inform diverse stakeholders seeking to identify local areas that might need targeted regulatory strategies to address environmental justice concerns.

Cumulant generating function formula of heat transfer in ballistic systems with lead-lead coupling and general nonlinear systems

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Huanan

2013-03-01

Based on a two-time observation protocol, we consider heat transfer in a given time interval tM in a lead-junction-lead system taking coupling between the leads into account. In view of the two-time observation, consistency conditions are carefully verified in our specific family of quantum histories. Furthermore, its implication is briefly explored. Then using the nonequilibrium Green's function method, we obtain an exact formula for the cumulant generating function for heat transfer between the two leads, valid in both transient and steady-state regimes. Also, a compact formula for the cumulant generating function in the long-time limit is derived, for which the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation symmetry is explicitly verified. In addition, we briefly discuss Di Ventra's repartitioning trick regarding whether the repartitioning procedure of the total Hamiltonian affects the nonequilibrium steady-state current fluctuation. All kinds of properties of nonequilibrium current fluctuations, such as the fluctuation theorem in different time regimes, could be readily given according to these exact formulas. Finally a practical formalism dealing with cumulants of heat transfer across general nonlinear quantum systems is established based on field theoretical/algebraic method.

Urbanization Level and Vulnerability to Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Kai; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Ma, Zongwei; Liu, Yang; Huang, Lei; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L

2016-12-01

Although adverse effects of high temperature on mortality have been studied extensively in urban areas, little is known of the heat-mortality associations outside of cities. We investigated whether heat-mortality associations differed between urban and nonurban areas and how urbanicity affected the vulnerability to heat-related mortality. We first analyzed heat-related mortality risk in each of 102 counties in Jiangsu Province, China, during 2009-2013 using a distributed-lag nonlinear model. The county-specific estimates were then pooled for more urban (percentage of urban population ≥ 57.11%) and less urban (percentage of urban population risk comparing the 99th vs. 75th percentiles of temperature was 1.43 [95% posterior intervals (PI): 1.36, 1.50] in less urban counties and 1.26 (95% PI: 1.23, 1.30) in more urban counties. The heat effects on cardiorespiratory mortality followed a similar pattern. Higher education level and prevalence of air conditioning were significantly associated with counties having lower risks, whereas percentage of elderly people was significantly associated with increased risks. Our findings reveal that nonurban areas have significant heat-related mortality risks in Jiangsu, China. These results suggest the need for enhanced adaptation planning in Chinese nonurban areas under a changing climate. Citation: Chen K, Zhou L, Chen X, Ma Z, Liu Y, Huang L, Bi J, Kinney PL. 2016. Urbanization level and vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China. Environ Health Perspect 124:1863-1869; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP204.

Heat waves and cold spells: an analysis of policy response and perceptions of vulnerable populations in the UK

OpenAIRE

Johanna Wolf; W Neil Adger; Irene Lorenzoni

2010-01-01

Heat waves and cold spells pose ongoing seasonal risks to the health and well-being of vulnerable individuals. Current attempts to address these risks in the UK are implemented through fuel-poverty strategies and heat-wave planning. This paper examines evidence from the UK on whether heat waves and cold spells are addressed differently by public policy in the UK given that risks are mediated by similar perceptions that shape behavioural responses by vulnerable individuals. It is based on a re...

The relationship between peak warming and cumulative CO2 emissions, and its use to quantify vulnerabilities in the carbon-climate-human system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raupach, Michael; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Rayner, Peter J.; Trudinger, Catherine M.

2011-01-01

Interactions between the carbon cycle, climate and human societies are subject to several major vulnerabilities, broadly defined as factors contributing to the risk of harm from human-induced climate change. We assess five vulnerabilities: (1) effects of increasing CO 2 on the partition of anthropogenic carbon between atmospheric, land and ocean reservoirs; (2) effects of climate change (quantified by temperature) on CO 2 fluxes; (3) uncertainty in climate sensitivity; (4) non-CO 2 radiative forcing and (5) anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Our analysis uses a physically based expression for Tp(Qp), the peak warming Tp associated with a cumulative anthropogenic CO 2 emission Qp to the time of peak warming. The approximations in this expression are evaluated using a non-linear box model of the carbon-climate system, forced with capped emissions trajectories described by an analytic form satisfying integral and smoothness constraints. The first four vulnerabilities appear as parameters that influence Tp(Qp), whereas the last appears through the independent variable. In terms of likely implications for Tp(Qp), the decreasing order of the first four vulnerabilities is: uncertainties in climate sensitivity, effects of non-CO 2 radiative forcing, effects of climate change on CO 2 fluxes and effects of increasing CO 2 on the partition of anthropogenic carbon. (authors)

Assessing Vulnerability to Urban Heat: A Study of Disproportionate Heat Exposure and Access to Refuge by Socio-Demographic Status in Portland, Oregon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jackson Voelkel

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Extreme urban heat is a powerful environmental stressor which poses a significant threat to human health and well-being. Exacerbated by the urban heat island phenomenon, heat events are expected to become more intense and frequent as climate change progresses, though we have limited understanding of the impact of such events on vulnerable populations at a neighborhood or census block group level. Focusing on the City of Portland, Oregon, this study aimed to determine which socio-demographic populations experience disproportionate exposure to extreme heat, as well as the level of access to refuge in the form of public cooling centers or residential central air conditioning. During a 2014 heat wave, temperature data were recorded using a vehicle-traverse collection method, then extrapolated to determine average temperature at the census block group level. Socio-demographic factors including income, race, education, age, and English speaking ability were tested using statistical assessments to identify significant relationships with heat exposure and access to refuge from extreme heat. Results indicate that groups with limited adaptive capacity, including those in poverty and non-white populations, are at higher risk for heat exposure, suggesting an emerging concern of environmental justice as it relates to climate change. The paper concludes by emphasizing the importance of cultural sensitivity and inclusion, in combination with effectively distributing cooling centers in areas where the greatest burden befalls vulnerable populations.

Assessing Vulnerability to Urban Heat: A Study of Disproportionate Heat Exposure and Access to Refuge by Socio-Demographic Status in Portland, Oregon.

Science.gov (United States)

Voelkel, Jackson; Hellman, Dana; Sakuma, Ryu; Shandas, Vivek

2018-03-30

Extreme urban heat is a powerful environmental stressor which poses a significant threat to human health and well-being. Exacerbated by the urban heat island phenomenon, heat events are expected to become more intense and frequent as climate change progresses, though we have limited understanding of the impact of such events on vulnerable populations at a neighborhood or census block group level. Focusing on the City of Portland, Oregon, this study aimed to determine which socio-demographic populations experience disproportionate exposure to extreme heat, as well as the level of access to refuge in the form of public cooling centers or residential central air conditioning. During a 2014 heat wave, temperature data were recorded using a vehicle-traverse collection method, then extrapolated to determine average temperature at the census block group level. Socio-demographic factors including income, race, education, age, and English speaking ability were tested using statistical assessments to identify significant relationships with heat exposure and access to refuge from extreme heat. Results indicate that groups with limited adaptive capacity, including those in poverty and non-white populations, are at higher risk for heat exposure, suggesting an emerging concern of environmental justice as it relates to climate change. The paper concludes by emphasizing the importance of cultural sensitivity and inclusion, in combination with effectively distributing cooling centers in areas where the greatest burden befalls vulnerable populations.

Climate change and health: Indoor heat exposure in vulnerable populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; Sánchez, Brisa N.; Jolliet, Olivier; Zhang, Zhenzhen; Parker, Edith A.; Timothy Dvonch, J.; O'Neill, Marie S.

2012-01-01

Introduction: Climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves and hot weather in many urban environments. Older people are more vulnerable to heat exposure but spend most of their time indoors. Few published studies have addressed indoor heat exposure in residences occupied by an elderly population. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between outdoor and indoor temperatures in homes occupied by the elderly and determine other predictors of indoor temperature. Materials and methods: We collected hourly indoor temperature measurements of 30 different homes; outdoor temperature, dewpoint temperature, and solar radiation data during summer 2009 in Detroit, MI. We used mixed linear regression to model indoor temperatures' responsiveness to weather, housing and environmental characteristics, and evaluated our ability to predict indoor heat exposures based on outdoor conditions. Results: Average maximum indoor temperature for all locations was 34.85 °C, 13.8 °C higher than average maximum outdoor temperature. Indoor temperatures of single family homes constructed of vinyl paneling or wood siding were more sensitive than brick homes to outdoor temperature changes and internal heat gains. Outdoor temperature, solar radiation, and dewpoint temperature predicted 38% of the variability of indoor temperatures. Conclusions: Indoor exposures to heat in Detroit exceed the comfort range among elderly occupants, and can be predicted using outdoor temperatures, characteristics of the housing stock and surroundings to improve heat exposure assessment for epidemiological investigations. Weatherizing homes and modifying home surroundings could mitigate indoor heat exposure among the elderly.

Can green roofs reduce urban heat stress in vulnerable urban communities: A coupled atmospheric and social modeling approach

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Sharma, A.; Woodruff, S.; Budhathoki, M.; Hamlet, A. F.; Fernando, H. J. S.; Chen, F.

2017-12-01

Urban areas provide organized, engineered, sociological and economical infrastructure designed to provide a high quality of life, but the implementation and management of urban infrastructure has been a continued challenge. Increasing urbanization, warming climate, as well as anthropogenic heat emissions that accompany urban development generates "stress". This rapidly increasing `urban stress' affects the sustainability of cities, making populations more vulnerable to extreme hazards, such as heat. Cities are beginning to extensively use green roofs as a potential urban heat mitigation strategy. This study explores the potential of green roofs to reduce summertime temperatures in the most vulnerable neighborhoods of the Chicago metropolitan area by combining social vulnerability indices (a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity), and temperatures from mesoscale model. Numerical simulations using urbanized version the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were performed to measure rooftop temperatures, a representative variable for exposure in this study. The WRF simulations were dynamically coupled with a green roof algorithm as a part of urban parameterization within WRF. Specifically, the study examines roof surface temperature with changing green roof fractions and how would they help reduce exposure to heat stress for vulnerable urban communities. This study shows an example of applied research that can directly benefit urban communities and be used by urban planners to evaluate mitigation strategies.

Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

2013-07-29

With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alana Hansen

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Background: With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Design: Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results: Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion: More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

Cumulative stress and substantiated maltreatment: the importance of caregiver vulnerability and adult partner violence.

Science.gov (United States)

Wekerle, Christine; Wall, Anne-Marie; Leung, Eman; Trocmé, Nico

2007-04-01

Our goal is to assess the effect of caregiver vulnerabilities, singly and in combination, on the substantiation of child abuse (physical, sexual) and neglect, while controlling for relevant background variables. We test the moderator role of adult partner violence in qualifying the relationship between caregiver vulnerabilities and maltreatment substantiation. Secondary analyses of the 1998 Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Maltreatment (CIS) are used to predict child protective service investigation substantiation versus non-substantiation from a range of caregiver vulnerability factors. Involvement in partner violence was examined as a moderator in the relation between caregiver vulnerabilities and maltreatment substantiation. The CIS is an epidemiological survey of first-reported cases to child protective services, using a random sample of child welfare agencies across Canada. Child welfare workers completed a research form on the child, primary caregiver, family, perpetrator, severity and type of maltreatment, as well as services and court outcomes. All maltreatment classifications were assigned according to the Canadian legal definition of child abuse and neglect. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses were used, with stepped entry of: (1) demographic factors, socioeconomic disadvantage, and caregiver's own history of maltreatment; (2) caregiver vulnerability factors; (3) involvement in partner violence; (4) the interaction between caregiver vulnerability and partner violence. Caregiver substance abuse was found to be the single most potent kind of caregiver vulnerability in predicting maltreatment substantiation. When the total number of vulnerabilities was used as the predictor, prediction across all types of maltreatment increased, especially for substantiated neglect. Analyses also showed that the presence of partner violence in the home exacerbated the effect of caregiver vulnerability on substantiation. The total number of caregiver

Energy vulnerability. Far from urban centres, space heating and fuel costs weigh heavily on the household budget

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cochez, Nicolas; Durieux, Eric; Levy, David; Moreau, Sylvain; Baudu-Baret, Claude

2015-01-01

For 15% of resident households in metropolitan France, the proportion of income going on home and water heating is high, in the sense that it is twice the median housing-expense to income ratio. With this same criterion, the cost of the most mandatory car journeys is high for 10% of households, in relation to their budgets. In all, 22% of households (i.e. 5.9 million) are experiencing energy vulnerability for one or other of the items of consumption, and 3% of households (i.e. 700 000) are vulnerable for both items. The risk of vulnerability varies over national territory, with differences depending on the items of expenditure considered: climate is the primary factor where disparity in housing-related vulnerability is concerned, whereas the predominant factor for travel is distance from urban centres

Case-crossover analysis of heat-coded deaths and vulnerable subpopulations: Oklahoma, 1990-2011

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Brianna F.; Brooke Anderson, G.; Johnson, Matthew G.; Brown, Sheryll; Bradley, Kristy K.; Magzamen, Sheryl

2017-11-01

The extent of the association between temperature and heat-coded deaths, for which heat is the primary cause of death, remains largely unknown. We explored the association between temperature and heat-coded deaths and potential interactions with various demographic and environmental factors. A total of 335 heat-coded deaths that occurred in Oklahoma from 1990 through 2011 were identified using heat-related International Classification of Diseases codes, cause-of-death nomenclature, and narrative descriptions. Conditional logistic regression models examined the association between temperature and heat index on heat-coded deaths. Interaction by demographic factors (age, sex, marital status, living alone, outdoor/heavy labor occupations) and environmental factors (ozone, PM10, PM2.5) was also explored. Temperatures ≥99 °F (the median value) were associated with approximately five times higher odds of a heat-coded death as compared to temperatures effect estimates were attenuated when exposure to heat was characterized by heat index. The interaction results suggest that effect of temperature on heat-coded deaths may depend on sex and occupation. For example, the odds of a heat-coded death among outdoor/heavy labor workers exposed to temperatures ≥99 °F was greater than expected based on the sum of the individual effects (observed OR = 14.0, 95% CI 2.7, 72.0; expected OR = 4.1 [2.8 + 2.3-1.0]). Our results highlight the extent of the association between temperature and heat-coded deaths and emphasize the need for a comprehensive, multisource definition of heat-coded deaths. Furthermore, based on the interaction results, we recommend that states implement or expand heat safety programs to protect vulnerable subpopulations, such as outdoor workers.

Using Remotely Sensed Data to Map Urban Vulnerability to Heat

Science.gov (United States)

Stefanov, William L.

2010-01-01

This slide presentation defines remote sensing, and presents examples of remote sensing and astronaut photography, which has been a part of many space missions. The presentation then reviews the project aimed at analyzing urban vulnerability to climate change, which is to test the hypotheses that Exposure to excessively warm weather threatens human health in all types of climate regimes; Heat kills and sickens multitudes of people around the globe every year -- directly and indirectly, and Climate change, coupled with urban development, will impact human health. Using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixing Analysis (MESMA), and the Phoenix urban area as the example, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is calculated, a change detection analysis is shown, and surface temperature is shown.

Application of approximations for joint cumulative k-distributions for mixtures to FSK radiation heat transfer in multi-component high temperature non-LTE plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maurente, André; França, Francis H.R.; Miki, Kenji; Howell, John R.

2012-01-01

Approximations for joint cumulative k-distribution for mixtures are efficient for full spectrum k-distribution (FSK) computations. These approximations provide reduction of the database that is necessary to perform FSK computation when compared to the direct approach, which uses cumulative k-distributions computed from the spectrum of the mixture, and also less computational expensive when compared to techniques in which RTE's are required to be solved for each component of the mixture. The aim of the present paper is to extend the approximations for joint cumulative k-distributions for non-LTE media. For doing that, a FSK to non-LTE media formulation well-suited to be applied along with approximations for joint cumulative k-distributions is presented. The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by solving the radiation heat transfer in non-LTE high temperature plasmas composed of N, O, N 2 , NO, N 2 + and mixtures of these species. The two more efficient approximations, that is, the superposition and multiplication are employed and analyzed.

Vulnerability to extreme-heat-associated hospitalization in three counties in Michigan, USA, 2000-2009

Science.gov (United States)

Ogbomo, Adesuwa S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; O'Neill, Marie S.; Konen, Tess; Cameron, Lorraine; Wahl, Robert

2017-05-01

With climate change, extreme heat (EH) events are increasing, so it is important to understand who is vulnerable to heat-associated morbidity. We determined the association between EH and hospitalizations for all natural causes; cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal diseases; diabetes mellitus; and acute myocardial infarction in Michigan, USA, at different intensities and durations. We assessed confounding by ozone and how individual characteristics and health insurance payer (a proxy for income) modified these associations. We obtained Michigan Inpatient Database, National Climatic Data Center, and US Environmental Protection Agency ozone data for May-September, 2000-2009 for three Michigan counties. We employed a case-crossover design and modeled EH as an indicator for temperature above the 95th, 97th, or 99th percentile thresholds for 1, 2, 3, or 4 days. We examined effect modification by patient age, race, sex, and health insurance payer and pooled the county results. Among non-whites, the pooled odds ratio for hospitalization on EH (97th percentile threshold) vs. non-EH days for renal diseases was 1.37 (95 % CI = 1.13-1.66), which increased with increasing EH intensity, but was null among whites (OR = 1.00, 95 % CI = 0.81, 1.25). We observed a null association between EH and cardiovascular hospitalization. EH (99th percentile threshold) was associated with myocardial infarction hospitalizations. Confounding by ozone was minimal. EH was associated with hospitalizations for renal disease among non-whites. This information on vulnerability to heat-associated morbidity helps characterize the public health burden of EH and target interventions including patient education.

Analysing the vulnerability of buildings to climate change: Summer heat and flooding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johannes Nikolowski

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The REGKLAM project (Development and Testing of an Integrated Regional Climate Change Adaption Programme for the Model Region Dresden forms part of the KLIMZUG programme (Managing Climate Change in the Regions for the Future funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. It is concerned with the adaptation of important sectors of the Dresden region to climate change. One aim is to investigate and where necessary reduce the vulnerability of buildings and settlement structures to changing climatic conditions. This paper looks at flood damage as an example for the potential of climate change impacts on buildings. In ex-post analyses and projections, the article presents the results of regional climatological studies. Interfaces between meteorology and civil engineering are discussed. On the basis of a typology of building stock in the region, the vulnerability of given building types to given impacts was analysed in the form of impact models. The examples of environmental causes chosen were summer heat and flooding. The paper concludes with a discussion of how buildings can be adapted to cope with the impacts described.

Analysing the vulnerability of buildings to climate change. Summer heat and flooding

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nikolowski, Johannes; Zimm, Jakob; Naumann, Thomas [Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development, Dresden (Germany); Goldberg, Valeri [Technische Univ. Dresden (Germany). Chair of Meteorology

2013-04-15

The REGKLAM project (Development and Testing of an Integrated Regional Climate Change Adaption Programme for the Model Region Dresden) forms part of the KLIMZUG programme (Managing Climate Change in the Regions for the Future) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. It is concerned with the adaptation of important sectors of the Dresden region to climate change. One aim is to investigate and where necessary reduce the vulnerability of buildings and settlement structures to changing climatic conditions. This paper looks at flood damage as an example for the potential of climate change impacts on buildings. In ex-post analyses and projections, the article presents the results of regional climatological studies. Interfaces between meteorology and civil engineering are discussed. On the basis of a typology of building stock in the region, the vulnerability of given building types to given impacts was analysed in the form of impact models. The examples of environmental causes chosen were summer heat and flooding. The paper concludes with a discussion of how buildings can be adapted to cope with the impacts described. (orig.)

Energy Current Cumulants in One-Dimensional Systems in Equilibrium

Science.gov (United States)

Dhar, Abhishek; Saito, Keiji; Roy, Anjan

2018-06-01

A recent theory based on fluctuating hydrodynamics predicts that one-dimensional interacting systems with particle, momentum, and energy conservation exhibit anomalous transport that falls into two main universality classes. The classification is based on behavior of equilibrium dynamical correlations of the conserved quantities. One class is characterized by sound modes with Kardar-Parisi-Zhang scaling, while the second class has diffusive sound modes. The heat mode follows Lévy statistics, with different exponents for the two classes. Here we consider heat current fluctuations in two specific systems, which are expected to be in the above two universality classes, namely, a hard particle gas with Hamiltonian dynamics and a harmonic chain with momentum conserving stochastic dynamics. Numerical simulations show completely different system-size dependence of current cumulants in these two systems. We explain this numerical observation using a phenomenological model of Lévy walkers with inputs from fluctuating hydrodynamics. This consistently explains the system-size dependence of heat current fluctuations. For the latter system, we derive the cumulant-generating function from a more microscopic theory, which also gives the same system-size dependence of cumulants.

Cumulative Vulnerability: A Case Study on intrafamilial violence, Drug Addiction and Adolescent Pregnancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Miura, Paula Orchiucci; Passarini, Gislaine Martins Ricardo; Ferreira, Loraine Seixas; Paixão, Rui Alexandre Paquete; Tardivo, Leila Salomão de La Plata Cury; Barrientos, Dora Mariela Salcedo

2014-12-01

A pregnant adolescent's vulnerability increases when she is a victim of intrafamilial violence and drug addiction, which cause physical and biopsychosocial damage to the mother and her baby. Objective Present and analyze the case of an adolescent who is addicted to drugs, pregnant and the victim of lifelong intrafamilial violence. Method A case study based on a semi-structured interview conducted in the Obstetrics Emergency Unit at the Teaching Hospital of the University of São Paulo. The data were interpreted and analyzed using Content Analysis. Results intrafamilial violence experienced at the beginning of the adolescent's early relationships seriously affected her emotional maturity, triggering the development of psychopathologies and leaving her more susceptible to the use and abuse of alcohol and other drugs. The adolescent is repeating her history with her daughter, reproducing the cycle of violence. Conclusion Adolescent pregnancy combined with intrafamilial violence and drug addiction and multiplies the adolescent's psychosocial vulnerability increased the adolescent's vulnerability.

Cumulative Vulnerability: A Case Study on intrafamilial violence, Drug Addiction and Adolescent Pregnancy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paula Orchiucci Miura

2014-12-01

Full Text Available A pregnant adolescent’s vulnerability increases when she is a victim of intrafamilial violence and drug addiction, which cause physical and biopsychosocial damage to the mother and her baby. Objective Present and analyze the case of an adolescent who is addicted to drugs, pregnant and the victim of lifelong intrafamilial violence. Method A case study based on a semi-structured interview conducted in the Obstetrics Emergency Unit at the Teaching Hospital of the University of São Paulo. The data were interpreted and analyzed using Content Analysis. Results intrafamilial violence experienced at the beginning of the adolescent’s early relationships seriously affected her emotional maturity, triggering the development of psychopathologies and leaving her more susceptible to the use and abuse of alcohol and other drugs. The adolescent is repeating her history with her daughter, reproducing the cycle of violence. Conclusion Adolescent pregnancy combined with intrafamilial violence and drug addiction and multiplies the adolescent’s psychosocial vulnerability increased the adolescent’s vulnerability.

The prevalence of heat-related cardiorespiratory symptoms: the vulnerable groups identified from the National FINRISK 2007 Study

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Näyhä, Simo; Rintamäki, Hannu; Donaldson, Gavin; Hassi, Juhani; Jousilahti, Pekka; Laatikainen, Tiina; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Ikäheimo, Tiina M.

2017-04-01

The prevalence of heat-related cardiorespiratory symptoms among vulnerable groups is not well known. We therefore estimated the prevalence of heat-related cardiorespiratory symptoms among the Finnish population and their associations with social and individual vulnerability factors. The data came from the National FINRISK 2007 Study, in which 4007 men and women aged 25-74 answered questions on heat-related cardiorespiratory symptoms in the Oulu Cold and Heat Questionnaire 2007. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs), their 95 % confidence intervals (CIs), and model-predicted prevalence figures. The prevalence of heat-related cardiorespiratory symptoms was 12 %. It increased with age, from 3 % at the age of 25 years to 28 % at the age of 75 years. The symptoms were associated with pre-existing lung (OR 3.93; CI 3.01-5.13) and cardiovascular diseases (OR 2.27; 1.78-2.89); being a pensioner (OR 2.91; 1.65-5.28), unemployed (OR 2.82; 1.47-5.48), or working in agriculture (OR 2.27; 1.14-4.46) compared with working in industry; having only basic vs academic education (OR 1.98; 1.31-3.05); being female (OR 1.94; 1.51-2.50); being heavy vs light alcohol consumer (OR 1.89; 1.02-3.32); undertaking hard vs light physical work (OR 1.48;1.06-2.07); and being inactive vs active in leisure time (OR 1.97; 1.39-2.81). The adjusted prevalence of symptoms showed a wide range of variation, from 3 to 61 % depending on sex, age, professional field, education, and pre-existing lung and cardiovascular diseases. In conclusion, heat-related cardiorespiratory symptoms are commonly perceived among people with pre-existing lung or cardiovascular disease, agricultural workers, unemployed, pensioners, and people having only basic education. This information is needed for any planning and targeting measures to reduce the burden of summer heat.

Ambient high temperature and mortality in Jinan, China: A study of heat thresholds and vulnerable populations.

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Li, Jing; Xu, Xin; Yang, Jun; Liu, Zhidong; Xu, Lei; Gao, Jinghong; Liu, Xiaobo; Wu, Haixia; Wang, Jun; Yu, Jieqiong; Jiang, Baofa; Liu, Qiyong

2017-07-01

Understanding the health consequences of continuously rising temperatures-as is projected for China-is important in terms of developing heat-health adaptation and intervention programs. This study aimed to examine the association between mortality and daily maximum (T max ), mean (T mean ), and minimum (T min ) temperatures in warmer months; to explore threshold temperatures; and to identify optimal heat indicators and vulnerable populations. Daily data on temperature and mortality were obtained for the period 2007-2013. Heat thresholds for condition-specific mortality were estimated using an observed/expected analysis. We used a generalised additive model with a quasi-Poisson distribution to examine the association between mortality and T max /T min /T mean values higher than the threshold values, after adjustment for covariates. T max /T mean /T min thresholds were 32/28/24°C for non-accidental deaths; 32/28/24°C for cardiovascular deaths; 35/31/26°C for respiratory deaths; and 34/31/28°C for diabetes-related deaths. For each 1°C increase in T max /T mean /T min above the threshold, the mortality risk of non-accidental-, cardiovascular-, respiratory, and diabetes-related death increased by 2.8/5.3/4.8%, 4.1/7.2/6.6%, 6.6/25.3/14.7%, and 13.3/30.5/47.6%, respectively. Thresholds for mortality differed according to health condition when stratified by sex, age, and education level. For non-accidental deaths, effects were significant in individuals aged ≥65 years (relative risk=1.038, 95% confidence interval: 1.026-1.050), but not for those ≤64 years. For most outcomes, women and people ≥65 years were more vulnerable. High temperature significantly increases the risk of mortality in the population of Jinan, China. Climate change with rising temperatures may bring about the situation worse. Public health programs should be improved and implemented to prevent and reduce health risks during hot days, especially for the identified vulnerable groups. Copyright

A Case-Only Study of Vulnerability to Heat Wave-Related Mortality in New York City (2000-2011).

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Madrigano, Jaime; Ito, Kazuhiko; Johnson, Sarah; Kinney, Patrick L; Matte, Thomas

2015-07-01

As a result of climate change, the frequency of extreme temperature events is expected to increase, and such events are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Vulnerability patterns, and corresponding adaptation strategies, are most usefully conceptualized at a local level. We used a case-only analysis to examine subject and neighborhood characteristics that modified the association between heat waves and mortality. All deaths of New York City residents from 2000 through 2011 were included in this analysis. Meteorological data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Modifying characteristics were obtained from the death record and geographic data sets. A total of 234,042 adult deaths occurred during the warm season of our study period. Compared with other warm-season days, deaths during heat waves were more likely to occur in black (non-Hispanic) individuals than other race/ethnicities [odds ratio (OR) = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.12], more likely to occur at home than in institutions and hospital settings (OR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.16), and more likely among those living in census tracts that received greater public assistance (OR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.09). Finally, deaths during heat waves were more likely among residents in areas of the city with higher relative daytime summer surface temperature and less likely among residents living in areas with more green space. Mortality during heat waves varies widely within a city. Understanding which individuals and neighborhoods are most vulnerable can help guide local preparedness efforts.

Cumulative effects of planned industrial development and climate change on marine ecosystems

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Cathryn Clarke Murray

2015-07-01

Full Text Available With increasing human population, large scale climate changes, and the interaction of multiple stressors, understanding cumulative effects on marine ecosystems is increasingly important. Two major drivers of change in coastal and marine ecosystems are industrial developments with acute impacts on local ecosystems, and global climate change stressors with widespread impacts. We conducted a cumulative effects mapping analysis of the marine waters of British Columbia, Canada, under different scenarios: climate change and planned developments. At the coast-wide scale, climate change drove the largest change in cumulative effects with both widespread impacts and high vulnerability scores. Where the impacts of planned developments occur, planned industrial and pipeline activities had high cumulative effects, but the footprint of these effects was comparatively localized. Nearshore habitats were at greatest risk from planned industrial and pipeline activities; in particular, the impacts of planned pipelines on rocky intertidal habitats were predicted to cause the highest change in cumulative effects. This method of incorporating planned industrial development in cumulative effects mapping allows explicit comparison of different scenarios with the potential to be used in environmental impact assessments at various scales. Its use allows resource managers to consider cumulative effect hotspots when making decisions regarding industrial developments and avoid unacceptable cumulative effects. Management needs to consider both global and local stressors in managing marine ecosystems for the protection of biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services.

Energy vulnerability. Away from urban centers, space heating and fuels weight heavily in the budget. Insee Premiere no. 1530 - January 2015

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cochez, Nicolas; Durieux, Eric; Levy, David

2015-01-01

For 15% of resident households in metropolitan France, the proportion of income going on home and water heating is high, in the sense that it is twice the median housing-expense to income ratio. With this same criterion, the cost of the most mandatory car journeys is high for 10% of households, in relation to their budgets. In all, 22% of households (i.e. 5.9 million) are experiencing energy vulnerability for one or other of the items of consumption, and 3% of households (i.e. 700 000) are vulnerable for both items. The risk of vulnerability varies over national territory, with differences depending on the items of expenditure considered: climate is the primary factor where disparity in housing-related vulnerability is concerned, whereas the predominant factor for travel is distance from urban centres

Overturn of magma ocean ilmenite cumulate layer: Implications for lunar magmatic evolution and formation of a lunar core

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Hess, P. C.; Parmentier, E. M.

1993-01-01

We explore a model for the chemical evolution of the lunar interior that explains the origin and evolution of lunar magmatism and possibly the existence of a lunar core. A magma ocean formed during accretion differentiates into the anorthositic crust and chemically stratified cumulate mantle. The cumulative mantle is gravitationally unstable with dense ilmenite cumulate layers overlying olivine-orthopyroxene cumulates with Fe/Mg that decreases with depth. The dense ilmenite layer sinks to the center of the moon forming the core. The remainder of the gravitationally unstable cumulate pile also overturns. Any remaining primitive lunar mantle rises to its level of neutral buoyancy in the cumulate pile. Perhaps melting of primitive lunar mantle due to this decompression results in early lunar Mg-rich magmatism. Because of its high concentration of incompatible heat producing elements, the ilmenite core heats the overlying orthopyroxene-bearing cumulates. As a conductively thickening thermal boundary layer becomes unstable, the resulting mantle plumes rise, decompress, and partially melt to generate the mare basalts. This model explains both the timing and chemical characteristics of lunar magmatism.

A numerical study on the influence of vulnerable plaque composition on intravascular thermography measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Have, A G ten; Gijsen, F J H; Wentzel, J J; Slager, C J; Serruys, P W; Steen, A F W van der

2006-01-01

Intracoronary thermography is a technique that measures lumen wall temperatures for vulnerable plaque detection. In this paper the influence of vulnerable plaque composition on lumen wall temperatures was studied numerically. Concerning the vulnerable plaque heat generation, the location of the heat source and its heat production were varied. Concerning the heat transfer, the thermal properties of the lipid core and the location of the vasa vasorum were studied. The heat source location was the main determinant of the lumen wall temperature distribution. The strongest effect was noted when the heat producing macrophages were located in the shoulder region leading to focal spots of higher temperature. The maximal lumen wall temperature was mainly determined by the heat production of the macrophages and the cooling effect of blood. The insulating properties of the lipid core increased lumen wall temperatures when the heat source was located in the cap and the presence of vasa vasorum lowered the temperatures. These results show that the lumen wall temperature distribution is influenced by vulnerable plaque composition and that intracoronary thermography techniques require a high spatial resolution. To be able to couple temperature measurements to plaque vulnerability, intracoronary thermography needs to be combined with an imaging modality

Heat wave vulnerability classification of residential buildings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heijden, van der M.G.M.; Blocken, B.J.E.; Hensen, J.L.M.

2012-01-01

General circulation models of climate change predict that the intensity and frequency of heat waves will increase, which are a significant threat to public health (Luber and McGeehin 2008). The effect of heat waves on the public health became apparent during the 2003 heat wave in France, where

SOCIAL STABILITY AND HIV RISK BEHAVIOR: EVALUATING THE ROLE OF ACCUMULATED VULNERABILITY

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German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A.

2011-01-01

This study evaluated a cumulative and syndromic relationship among commonly co-occurring vulnerabilites (homelessness, incarceration, low-income, residential transition) in association with HIV-related risk behaviors among 635 low-income women in Baltimore. Analysis included descriptive statistics, logistic regression, latent class analysis and latent class regression. Both methods of assessing multidimensional instability showed significant associations with risk indicators. Risk of multiple partners, sex exchange, and drug use decreased significantly with each additional domain. Higher stability class membership (77%) was associated with decreased likelihood of multiple partners, exchange partners, recent drug use, and recent STI. Multidimensional social vulnerabilities were cumulatively and synergistically linked to HIV risk behavior. Independent instability measures may miss important contextual determinants of risk. Social stability offers a useful framework to understand the synergy of social vulnerabilities that shape sexual risk behavior. Social policies and programs aiming to enhance housing and overall social stability are likely to be beneficial for HIV prevention. PMID:21259043

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2006-01-01

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

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Seshadri, Ashwin K.

2017-11-01

Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change.

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Benmarhnia, Tarik; Grenier, Patrick; Brand, Allan; Fournier, Michel; Deguen, Séverine; Smargiassi, Audrey

2015-09-22

We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021-2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future.

GIS-Mapping and Statistical Analyses to Identify Climate-Vulnerable Communities and Populations Exposed to Superfund Sites

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Climate change-related cumulative health risks are expected to be disproportionately greater for overburdened communities, due to differential proximity and exposures to chemical sources and flood zones. Communities and populations vulnerable to climate change-associated impacts ...

Environmental Health Related Socio-Spatial Inequalities: Identifying “Hotspots” of Environmental Burdens and Social Vulnerability

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Rehana; Flacke, Johannes; Martinez, Javier; van Maarseveen, Martin

2016-01-01

Differential exposure to multiple environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across a population with varying vulnerability can contribute heavily to health inequalities. Particularly relevant are areas with high cumulative burdens and high social vulnerability termed as “hotspots”. This paper develops an index-based approach to assess these multiple burdens and benefits in combination with vulnerability factors at detailed intra-urban level. The method is applied to the city of Dortmund, Germany. Using non-spatial and spatial methods we assessed inequalities and identified “hotspot” areas in the city. We found modest inequalities burdening higher vulnerable groups in Dortmund (CI = −0.020 at p vulnerability, is essential to inform environmental justice debates and to mobilize local stakeholders. Locating “hotspot” areas at this detailed spatial level can serve as a basis to develop interventions that target vulnerable groups to ensure a health conducive equal environment. PMID:27409625

Cumulative effects of using pin fin heat sink and porous metal foam on thermal management of lithium-ion batteries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohammadian, Shahabeddin K.; Zhang, Yuwen

2017-01-01

Highlights: • 3D transient thermal analysis of a pouch Li-ion cell has been carried out. • Using pin fin heat sink improves the temperature reduction at low pumping powers. • Using pin fin heat sink enhances the temperature uniformity at low air flow rates. • Porous aluminum foam insertion with pin fins improves temperature reduction. • Porous aluminum foam insertion with pin fins enhances temperature uniformity. - Abstract: Three-dimensional transient thermal analysis of an air-cooled module was carried out to investigate cumulative effects of using pin fin heat sink and porous metal foam on thermal management of a Li-ion (lithium-ion) battery pack. Five different cases were designed as Case 1: flow channel without any pin fin or porous metal foam insertion, Case 2: flow channel with aluminum pin fins, Case 3: flow channel with porous aluminum foam pin fins, Case 4: fully inserted flow channel with porous aluminum foam, and Case 5: fully inserted flow channel with porous aluminum foam and aluminum pin fins. The effects of porous aluminum insertions, pin fin types, air flow inlet temperature, and air flow inlet velocity on the temperature uniformity and maximum temperature inside the battery pack were systematically investigated. The results showed that using pin fin heat sink (Case 2) is appropriate only for low air flow velocities. In addition, the use of porous aluminum pin fins or embedding porous aluminum foam inside the air flow channel (Cases 3 and 4) are not beneficial for thermal management improvement. The combination of aluminum pin fins and porous aluminum foam insertion inside the air flow channel (Case 5) is a proper option that improves both temperature reduction and temperature uniformity inside the battery cell.

Heat stress and public health: a critical review.

Science.gov (United States)

Kovats, R Sari; Hajat, Shakoor

2008-01-01

Heat is an environmental and occupational hazard. The prevention of deaths in the community caused by extreme high temperatures (heat waves) is now an issue of public health concern. The risk of heat-related mortality increases with natural aging, but persons with particular social and/or physical vulnerability are also at risk. Important differences in vulnerability exist between populations, depending on climate, culture, infrastructure (housing), and other factors. Public health measures include health promotion and heat wave warning systems, but the effectiveness of acute measures in response to heat waves has not yet been formally evaluated. Climate change will increase the frequency and the intensity of heat waves, and a range of measures, including improvements to housing, management of chronic diseases, and institutional care of the elderly and the vulnerable, will need to be developed to reduce health impacts.

Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program

Science.gov (United States)

Bowerman, Paul N.; Scheuer, Ernest M.; Nolty, Robert

1990-01-01

Overflow and underflow in sums prevented. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program, CUMPOIS, one of two computer programs that make calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines cumulative Poisson distribution, used to evaluate cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and cdf for X (sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Written in C.

Vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in Seoul, Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Son, Ji-Young; Anderson, G Brooke; Bell, Michelle L; Lee, Jong-Tae

2011-01-01

Studies indicate that the mortality effects of temperature may vary by population and region, although little is known about the vulnerability of subgroups to these risks in Korea. This study examined the relationship between temperature and cause-specific mortality for Seoul, Korea, for the period 2000-7, including whether some subgroups are particularly vulnerable with respect to sex, age, education and place of death. The authors applied time-series models allowing nonlinear relationships for heat- and cold-related mortality, and generated exposure-response curves. Both high and low ambient temperatures were associated with increased risk for daily mortality. Mortality risk was 10.2% (95% confidence interval 7.43, 13.0%) higher at the 90th percentile of daily mean temperatures (25 deg. C) compared to the 50th percentile (15 deg. C). Mortality risk was 12.2% (3.69, 21.3%) comparing the 10th (-1 deg. C) and 50th percentiles of temperature. Cardiovascular deaths showed a higher risk to cold, whereas respiratory deaths showed a higher risk to heat effect, although the differences were not statistically significant. Susceptible populations were identified such as females, the elderly, those with no education, and deaths occurring outside of a hospital for heat- and cold-related total mortality. Our findings provide supportive evidence of a temperature-mortality relationship in Korea and indicate that some subpopulations are particularly vulnerable.

Assessment of aquifer intrinsic vulnerability using GIS based Drastic model in Sialkot area, Pakistan

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Muhammad Saqib Khan

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The intrinsic vulnerability of a shallow aquifer of Sialkot is assessed using DRASTIC index method. The information required as input for all seven parameters, i.e. depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, the impact of vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity data were collected from literature surveys and on field surveys. A cumulative vulnerability map was developed using the indices obtained as a result of DRASTIC methodology. The values obtained from DRASTIC model for the study area were between 112 and 151. The area was dominated by medium and moderate vulnerable zones covering an area of 446 km2 and 442 km2 respectively. An area of 79 km2 was covered by the low vulnerable zone while the high vulnerable zone encompassed a total area of 38 km2. Least covered area i-e., 09 km2 was found in the vicinity of the very high vulnerable zone. The validation of the DRASTIC model using the nitrate distribution revealed that very high and high indices have the lower percentage of reliability than of the low to moderate zones as compared with the nitrate distribution in the groundwater.

Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs.

Science.gov (United States)

Giakoumi, Sylvaine; Halpern, Benjamin S; Michel, Loïc N; Gobert, Sylvie; Sini, Maria; Boudouresque, Charles-François; Gambi, Maria-Cristina; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Lejeune, Pierre; Montefalcone, Monica; Pergent, Gerard; Pergent-Martini, Christine; Sanchez-Jerez, Pablo; Velimirov, Branko; Vizzini, Salvatrice; Abadie, Arnaud; Coll, Marta; Guidetti, Paolo; Micheli, Fiorenza; Possingham, Hugh P

2015-08-01

Effective ecosystem-based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components' vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Determining shallow aquifer vulnerability by the DRASTIC model and hydrochemistry in granitic terrain, southern India

Science.gov (United States)

Mondal, N. C.; Adike, S.; Singh, V. S.; Ahmed, S.; Jayakumar, K. V.

2017-08-01

Shallow aquifer vulnerability has been assessed using GIS-based DRASTIC model by incorporating the major geological and hydrogeological factors that affect and control the groundwater contamination in a granitic terrain. It provides a relative indication of aquifer vulnerability to the contamination. Further, it has been cross-verified with hydrochemical signatures such as total dissolved solids (TDS), Cl-, HCO3-, SO4^{2-} and Cl-/HCO3- molar ratios. The results show four zones of aquifer vulnerability (i.e., negligible, low, moderate and high) based on the variation of DRASTIC Vulnerability Index (DVI) between 39 and 132. About 57% area in the central part is found moderately and highly contaminated due to the 80 functional tannery disposals and is more prone to groundwater aquifer vulnerability. The high range values of TDS (2304-39,100 mg/l); Na+(239- 6,046 mg/l) and Cl- (532-13,652 mg/l) are well correlated with the observed high vulnerable zones. The values of Cl-/HCO3- (molar ratios: 1.4-106.8) in the high vulnerable zone obviously indicate deterioration of the aquifer due to contamination. Further cumulative probability distributions of these parameters indicate several threshold values which are able to demarcate the diverse vulnerability zones in granitic terrain.

Adaptive strategies for cumulative cultural learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Ehn, Micael; Laland, Kevin

2012-05-21

The demographic and ecological success of our species is frequently attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture. However, it is not yet known how humans combine social and asocial learning to generate effective strategies for learning in a cumulative cultural context. Here we explore how cumulative culture influences the relative merits of various pure and conditional learning strategies, including pure asocial and social learning, critical social learning, conditional social learning and individual refiner strategies. We replicate the Rogers' paradox in the cumulative setting. However, our analysis suggests that strategies that resolved Rogers' paradox in a non-cumulative setting may not necessarily evolve in a cumulative setting, thus different strategies will optimize cumulative and non-cumulative cultural learning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future Extreme Event Vulnerability in the Rural Northeastern United States

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Winter, J.; Bowen, F. L.; Partridge, T.; Chipman, J. W.

2017-12-01

Future climate change impacts on humans will be determined by the convergence of evolving physical climate and socioeconomic systems. Of particular concern is the intersection of extreme events and vulnerable populations. Rural areas of the Northeastern United States have experienced increased temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over the past three decades, and face unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resources dependent economies, and high poverty rates. To explore the impacts of future extreme events on vulnerable, rural populations in the Northeast, we project extreme events and vulnerability indicators to identify where changes in extreme events and vulnerable populations coincide. Specifically, we analyze future (2046-2075) maximum annual daily temperature, minimum annual daily temperature, maximum annual daily precipitation, and maximum consecutive dry day length for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using four global climate models (GCM) and a gridded observational dataset. We then overlay those projections with estimates of county-level population and relative income for 2060 to calculate changes in person-events from historical (1976-2005), with a focus on Northeast counties that have less than 250,000 people and are in the bottom income quartile. We find that across the rural Northeast for RCP4.5, heat person-events per year increase tenfold, far exceeding decreases in cold person-events and relatively small changes in precipitation and drought person-events. Counties in the bottom income quartile have historically (1976-2005) experienced a disproportionate number of heat events, and counties in the bottom two income quartiles are projected to experience a greater heat event increase by 2046-2075 than counties in the top two income quartiles. We further explore the relative contributions of event frequency, population, and income changes to the total and geographic distribution of climate change

Vulnerability to Urban Heat Island in São Paulo Municipality: An Approach to Support the Mitigation Measures Implementation in Urban Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juliana Siqueira-Gay

2017-10-01

Full Text Available In the practice of urban and environmental planning, especially in the context of adaptation to environmental changes, there is a demand for studies that integrate social, economic and environmental information of the population and related risk. Particularly in large urban centers, waterproofing and verticalization have the potential to increase local air temperature, triggering the phenomenon of heat islands. Therefore, this phenomenon has side effects such as public health problems, pollution and changes in the air circulation. In view of the risks and consequences of the urban heat islands, this paper aims to analyze the priority areas for implementing measures to mitigate the effects of the urban heat islands phenomenon in São Paulo City (Brazil. A vulnerability index was proposed considering the social and environmental dimensions, relating the capacity of adaptation, sensitivity and exposure to the occurrence of the phenomenon of urban heat islands. Besides that, measures to mitigate the effects associated with heat islands in urban planning were identified. The central regions are critical for exposure and the outskirts, for adaptive capacity and sensitivity, both considered priorities for the implementation of mitigation measures. In addition, strategies such as implementation and conservation of green spaces, preservation of water bodies, urban design change, as well as use of materials with high reflectance are also listed and partially foreseen in the Municipal Strategic Master Plan to mitigate the effects of urban heat island.

Confined aquifer vulnerability induced by a pumping well in a leakage area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Meng

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Due to the pollution of shallow groundwater and the rapid development of society and economy which consume more freshwater, the exploitation of confined groundwater is steadily increasing in north China. Therefore, the rapid decline of the confined groundwater head increases the risk of confined aquifer pollution by leaky recharge from shallow aquifers. In this paper, a quantitative method for assessing confined aquifer vulnerability to contamination due to pumping has been developed. This method is based on the shallow and confined groundwater flow model and the advection and dispersion in the aquitard, including sorption. The cumulative time for the pollutant concentration at the top boundary of confined aquifer exceeding the maximum allowable level is defined as the confined aquifer vulnerability index, which can be obtained by numerically solving the solute transport equation. A hypothetical example is chosen as a case study to illustrate the whole process. The results indicate that the proposed method is a practical and reasonable assessment method of confined aquifer vulnerability.

Can friends protect genetically vulnerable children from depression?

Science.gov (United States)

Brendgen, Mara; Vitaro, Frank; Bukowski, William M; Dionne, Ginette; Tremblay, Richard E; Boivin, Michel

2013-05-01

The study examined whether reciprocal friendship quantity or quality can mitigate genetic vulnerability for depression symptoms in children. The sample comprised 168 monozygotic twin pairs and 126 same-sex dizygotic twin pairs assessed in Grade 4 (mean age = 10.04 years). Friendship participation was measured via reciprocal nominations of close friendships within the classroom. Friendship quality was measured through self-reports. Depression symptoms were measured through teacher and peer reports. Genetic vulnerability for depression symptoms was unrelated to friendship participation or the number of reciprocal friends, but it was negatively related to positive friendship quality. In line with gene-environment interaction, genetic risk effects on depression symptoms were mitigated in girls who had at least one close reciprocal friend. In boys, only moderate main effects of genetic vulnerability and friendship participation were found but no interaction between them. However, among boys with at least one reciprocal friend, a greater number of friends was related to fewer depression symptoms whereas no cumulative effect of friendship was found for girls. Finally, positive friendship quality was related to fewer depression symptoms in girls and boys even when controlling for genetic risk. The findings emphasize the importance of teaching social interactional skills that promote high-quality friendship relations to help prevent the development of depression symptoms in children.

Sugars from woody tissue photosynthesis reduce xylem vulnerability to cavitation.

Science.gov (United States)

De Baerdemaeker, Niels J F; Salomón, Roberto Luis; De Roo, Linus; Steppe, Kathy

2017-11-01

Reassimilation of internal CO 2 via woody tissue photosynthesis has a substantial effect on tree carbon income and wood production. However, little is known about its role in xylem vulnerability to cavitation and its implications in drought-driven tree mortality. Young trees of Populus nigra were subjected to light exclusion at the branch and stem levels. After 40 d, measurements of xylem water potential, diameter variation and acoustic emission (AE) were performed in detached branches to obtain acoustic vulnerability curves to cavitation following bench-top dehydration. Acoustic vulnerability curves and derived AE 50 values (i.e. water potential at which 50% of cavitation-related acoustic emissions occur) differed significantly between light-excluded and control branches (AE 50,light-excluded  = -1.00 ± 0.13 MPa; AE 50,control  = -1.45 ± 0.09 MPa; P = 0.007) denoting higher vulnerability to cavitation in light-excluded trees. Woody tissue photosynthesis represents an alternative and immediate source of nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC) that confers lower xylem vulnerability to cavitation via sugar-mediated mechanisms. Embolism repair and xylem structural changes could not explain this observation as the amount of cumulative AE and basic wood density did not differ between treatments. We suggest that woody tissue assimilates might play a role in the synthesis of xylem surfactants for nanobubble stabilization under tension. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Vulnerable Genders, Vulnerable Loves

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schleicher, Marianne

2015-01-01

This chapter analyses religious reflections on vulnerable genders and vulnerable loves from the Hebrew Bible to early Rabbinic literature. It is based on theories by inter alia Donna Haraway on complex identities, Turner and Maryanski on love as a prerequisite for survival, Michel Foucault...... on gathering knowledge and its often unpremeditated effect of recognition and inclusion, and Judith Butler on cultural intelligibility and subversion from within. With these theories as a departing point for the analysis, the chapter links the vulnerability of complex identities with the vulnerability...... of cultures which leads to the overall understanding that culture can accommodate complex identities associated with individual and cultural vulnerability as long as the overall survival of the culture is not threatened. This understanding questions the feasibility of the ethical position of thinkers...

Feasibility of ground coupled heat pumps in office buildings: A China study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Zhihua; Zhang, Zhiming; Chen, Guanyi; Zuo, Jian; Xu, Pan; Meng, Chong; Yu, Zhun

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Feasibility of GCHPs in office buildings was assessed in various climatic regions. • Performance of GCHPs was compared with traditional heating and cooling techniques. • Ratio of the heating to cooling load has significant impacts on operation of GCHPs. - Abstract: Ground coupled heat pumps (GCHPs) have been widely applied in China due to its environmental friendliness and energy efficiency. However, it may not be appropriate in all geographical areas because a variety of factors (e.g. original soil temperature, peak cooling and heating load, and running time) vary significantly. Typical office buildings were selected from five cities that are located in different climatic regions. The QUick Energy Simulation Tool (e-QUEST) was utilized to simulate the cooling and heating load. Similarly, the Transient System Simulation Program (TRNSYS) was employed to simulate the 20-year variation of the average soil temperature and the Coefficient of Performance (COP) of GCHP units. Consequently, the feasibility of the GCHPs in different regions was analyzed. The results show that GCHP system is feasible in severe cold B regions such as Shenyang and cold regions such as Beijing as both cold and heat sources because of its energy efficiency. From the economy and operation performance’s perspective, GCHP system is not feasible in severe cold A regions such as Harbin; hot-summer and cold-winter regions such as Nanjing; and hot-summer and warm-winter region such as Guangzhou. This is due to the poor energy efficiency of the system, mainly attributed to a large gap between cumulative energy consumption for cooling and for heating. Comprehensive analysis of experiment results showed that the GCHP system of case building in cold region can operate stably in long term with a high efficiency when the ratio of annual cumulative cooling energy consumption to annual cumulative heating energy consumption ranges from 0.2:1 to 5:1. In severe cold B regions, GCHP system

Complete cumulative index (1963-1983)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

This complete cumulative index covers all regular and special issues and supplements published by Atomic Energy Review (AER) during its lifetime (1963-1983). The complete cumulative index consists of six Indexes: the Index of Abstracts, the Subject Index, the Title Index, the Author Index, the Country Index and the Table of Elements Index. The complete cumulative index supersedes the Cumulative Indexes for Volumes 1-7: 1963-1969 (1970), and for Volumes 1-10: 1963-1972 (1972); this Index also finalizes Atomic Energy Review, the publication of which has recently been terminated by the IAEA

A review of vulnerability and risks for schizophrenia: Beyond the two hit hypothesis

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Justin; Eyre, Harris; Jacka, Felice N; Dodd, Seetal; Dean, Olivia; McEwen, Sarah; Debnath, Monojit; McGrath, John; Maes, Michael; Amminger, Paul; McGorry, Patrick D; Pantelis, Christos; Berk, Michael

2016-01-01

Schizophrenia risk has often been conceptualized using a model which requires two hits in order to generate the clinical phenotype—the first as an early priming in a genetically predisposed individual and the second a likely environmental insult. The aim of this paper was to review the literature and reformulate this binary risk-vulnerability model. We sourced the data for this narrative review from the electronic database PUBMED. Our search terms were not limited by language or date of publication. The development of schizophrenia may be driven by genetic vulnerability interacting with multiple vulnerability factors including lowered prenatal vitamin D exposure, viral infections, smoking intelligence quotient, social cognition cannabis use, social defeat, nutrition and childhood trauma. It is likely that these genetic risks, environmental risks and vulnerability factors are cumulative and interactive with each other and with critical periods of neurodevelopmental vulnerability. The development of schizophrenia is likely to be more complex and nuanced than the binary two hit model originally proposed nearly thirty years ago. Risk appears influenced by a more complex process involving genetic risk interfacing with multiple potentially interacting hits and vulnerability factors occurring at key periods of neurodevelopmental activity, which culminate in the expression of disease state. These risks are common across a number of neuropsychiatric and medical disorders, which might inform common preventive and intervention strategies across non-communicable disorders. PMID:27073049

Cumulative socioeconomic status risk, allostatic load, and adjustment: a prospective latent profile analysis with contextual and genetic protective factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Brody, Gene H; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-fu; Kogan, Steven M; Evans, Gary W; Beach, Steven R H; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X; Philibert, Robert A

2013-05-01

The health disparities literature has identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative socioeconomic status (SES) risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental precursors to this pattern. Hypotheses were tested with a representative sample of 443 African American youths living in the rural South. Cumulative SES risk and protective processes were assessed at ages 11-13 years; psychological adjustment was assessed at ages 14-18 years; genotyping at the 5-HTTLPR was conducted at age 16 years; and allostatic load (AL) was assessed at age 19 years. A latent profile analysis identified 5 profiles that evinced distinct patterns of SES risk, AL, and psychological adjustment, with 2 relatively large profiles designated as focal profiles: a physical health vulnerability profile characterized by high SES risk/high AL/low adjustment problems, and a resilient profile characterized by high SES risk/low AL/low adjustment problems. The physical health vulnerability profile mirrored the pattern found in the adult health disparities literature. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that carrying an s allele at the 5-HTTLPR and receiving less peer support distinguished the physical health vulnerability profile from the resilient profile. Protective parenting and planful self-regulation distinguished both focal profiles from the other 3 profiles. The results suggest the public health importance of preventive interventions that enhance coping and reduce the effects of stress across childhood and adolescence.

Social vulnerability assessment: a growing practice in Europe?

Science.gov (United States)

Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.

2012-04-01

This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of

Cumulative effects of wind turbines. A guide to assessing the cumulative effects of wind energy development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-07-01

This guidance provides advice on how to assess the cumulative effects of wind energy developments in an area and is aimed at developers, planners, and stakeholders interested in the development of wind energy in the UK. The principles of cumulative assessment, wind energy development in the UK, cumulative assessment of wind energy development, and best practice conclusions are discussed. The identification and assessment of the cumulative effects is examined in terms of global environmental sustainability, local environmental quality and socio-economic activity. Supplementary guidance for assessing the principle cumulative effects on the landscape, on birds, and on the visual effect is provided. The consensus building approach behind the preparation of this guidance is outlined in the annexes of the report.

Mapping the Decadal Spatio-temporal Variation of Social Vulnerability to Hydro-climatic Extremes over India

Science.gov (United States)

H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

2015-12-01

Human induced global warming is unequivocal and observational studies shows that, this has led to increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-climatic extremes, most importantly precipitation extreme, heat waves and drought; and also is expected to be increased in the future. The occurrence of these extremes have a devastating effects on nation's economy and on societal well-being. Previous studies on India provided the evidences of significant changes in the precipitation extreme from pre- to post-1950, with huge spatial heterogeneity; and projections of heat waves indicated that significant part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. Under these circumstance, it is necessary to develop a nation-wide social vulnerability map to scrutinize the adequacy of existing emergency management. Yet there has been no systematic past efforts on mapping social vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes at nation-wide for India. Therefore, immediate efforts are required to quantify the social vulnerability, particularly developing country like India, where major transformations in demographic characteristics and development patterns are evident during past decades. In the present study, we perform a comprehensive spatio-temporal social vulnerability analysis by considering multiple sensitive indicators for three decades (1990-2010) which identifies the hot-spots, with higher vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes. The population datasets are procured from Census of India and the meteorological datasets are obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The study derives interesting results on decadal changes of spatial distribution of risk, considering social vulnerability and hazard to extremes.

The challenge of cumulative impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Masden, Elisabeth

2011-07-01

Full text: As governments pledge to combat climate change, wind turbines are becoming a common feature of terrestrial and marine environments. Although wind power is a renewable energy source and a means of reducing carbon emissions, there is a need to ensure that the wind farms themselves do not damage the environment. There is particular concern over the impacts of wind farms on bird populations, and with increasing numbers of wind farm proposals, the concern focuses on cumulative impacts. Individually, a wind farm, or indeed any activity/action, may have minor effects on the environment, but collectively these may be significant, potentially greater than the sum of the individual parts acting alone. Cumulative impact assessment is a legislative requirement of environmental impact assessment but such assessments are rarely adequate restricting the acquisition of basic knowledge about the cumulative impacts of wind farms on bird populations. Reasons for this are numerous but a recurring theme is the lack of clear definitions and guidance on how to perform cumulative assessments. Here we present a conceptual framework and include illustrative examples to demonstrate how the framework can be used to improve the planning and execution of cumulative impact assessments. The core concept is that explicit definitions of impacts, actions and scales of assessment are required to reduce uncertainty in the process of assessment and improve communication between stake holders. Only when it is clear what has been included within a cumulative assessment, is it possible to make comparisons between developments. Our framework requires improved legislative guidance on the actions to include in assessments, and advice on the appropriate baselines against which to assess impacts. Cumulative impacts are currently considered on restricted scales (spatial and temporal) relating to individual development assessments. We propose that benefits would be gained from elevating cumulative

A review of vulnerability and risks for schizophrenia: Beyond the two hit hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Justin; Eyre, Harris; Jacka, Felice N; Dodd, Seetal; Dean, Olivia; McEwen, Sarah; Debnath, Monojit; McGrath, John; Maes, Michael; Amminger, Paul; McGorry, Patrick D; Pantelis, Christos; Berk, Michael

2016-06-01

Schizophrenia risk has often been conceptualized using a model which requires two hits in order to generate the clinical phenotype-the first as an early priming in a genetically predisposed individual and the second a likely environmental insult. The aim of this paper was to review the literature and reformulate this binary risk-vulnerability model. We sourced the data for this narrative review from the electronic database PUBMED. Our search terms were not limited by language or date of publication. The development of schizophrenia may be driven by genetic vulnerability interacting with multiple vulnerability factors including lowered prenatal vitamin D exposure, viral infections, smoking intelligence quotient, social cognition cannabis use, social defeat, nutrition and childhood trauma. It is likely that these genetic risks, environmental risks and vulnerability factors are cumulative and interactive with each other and with critical periods of neurodevelopmental vulnerability. The development of schizophrenia is likely to be more complex and nuanced than the binary two hit model originally proposed nearly thirty years ago. Risk appears influenced by a more complex process involving genetic risk interfacing with multiple potentially interacting hits and vulnerability factors occurring at key periods of neurodevelopmental activity, which culminate in the expression of disease state. These risks are common across a number of neuropsychiatric and medical disorders, which might inform common preventive and intervention strategies across non-communicable disorders. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting risk in space: Genetic markers for differential vulnerability to sleep restriction

Science.gov (United States)

Goel, Namni; Dinges, David F.

2012-08-01

Several laboratories have found large, highly reliable individual differences in the magnitude of cognitive performance, fatigue and sleepiness, and sleep homeostatic vulnerability to acute total sleep deprivation and to chronic sleep restriction in healthy adults. Such individual differences in neurobehavioral performance are also observed in space flight as a result of sleep loss. The reasons for these stable phenotypic differential vulnerabilities are unknown: such differences are not yet accounted for by demographic factors, IQ or sleep need, and moreover, psychometric scales do not predict those individuals cognitively vulnerable to sleep loss. The stable, trait-like (phenotypic) inter-individual differences observed in response to sleep loss—with intraclass correlation coefficients accounting for 58-92% of the variance in neurobehavioral measures—point to an underlying genetic component. To this end, we utilized multi-day highly controlled laboratory studies to investigate the role of various common candidate gene variants—each independently—in relation to cumulative neurobehavioral and sleep homeostatic responses to sleep restriction. These data suggest that common genetic variations (polymorphisms) involved in sleep-wake, circadian, and cognitive regulation may serve as markers for prediction of inter-individual differences in sleep homeostatic and neurobehavioral vulnerability to sleep restriction in healthy adults. Identification of genetic predictors of differential vulnerability to sleep restriction—as determined from candidate gene studies—will help identify astronauts most in need of fatigue countermeasures in space flight and inform medical standards for obtaining adequate sleep in space. This review summarizes individual differences in neurobehavioral vulnerability to sleep deprivation and ongoing genetic efforts to identify markers of such differences.

32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16... § 651.16 Cumulative impacts. (a) NEPA analyses must assess cumulative effects, which are the impact on the environment resulting from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present...

Responding to the Effects of Extreme Heat: Baltimore City's Code Red Program.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Jennifer L

2016-01-01

Heat response plans are becoming increasingly more common as US cities prepare for heat waves and other effects of climate change. Standard elements of heat response plans exist, but plans vary depending on geographic location and distribution of vulnerable populations. Because heat events vary over time and affect populations differently based on vulnerability, it is difficult to compare heat response plans and evaluate responses to heat events. This article provides an overview of the Baltimore City heat response plan, the Code Red program, and discusses the city's response to the 2012 Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic Derecho, a complex heat event. Challenges with and strategies for evaluating the program are reviewed and shared.

Vulnerability

Science.gov (United States)

Taback, I.

1979-01-01

The discussion of vulnerability begins with a description of some of the electrical characteristics of fibers before definiting how vulnerability calculations are done. The vulnerability results secured to date are presented. The discussion touches on post exposure vulnerability. After a description of some shock hazard work now underway, the discussion leads into a description of the planned effort and some preliminary conclusions are presented.

Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to extreme events: Climate change implications (Conference paper)

OpenAIRE

Patt, A.; Pfenninger, S.; Lilliestam, J.

2010-01-01

This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabili...

Drivers and barriers to heat stress resilience.

Science.gov (United States)

Hatvani-Kovacs, Gertrud; Belusko, Martin; Skinner, Natalie; Pockett, John; Boland, John

2016-11-15

Heatwaves are the most dangerous natural hazard to health in Australia. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves will increase due to climate change and urban heat island effects in cities, aggravating the negative impacts of heatwaves. Two approaches exist to develop population heat stress resilience. Firstly, the most vulnerable social groups can be identified and public health services can prepare for the increased morbidity. Secondly, the population level of adaptation and the heat stress resistance of the built environment can be increased. The evaluation of these measures and their efficiencies has been fragmented across research disciplines. This study explored the relationships between the elements of heat stress resilience and their potential demographic and housing drivers and barriers. The responses of a representative online survey (N=393) about heat stress resilience at home and work from Adelaide, South Australia were analysed. The empirical findings demonstrate that heat stress resistant buildings increased adaptation capacity and decreased the number of health problems. Air-conditioning increased dependence upon it, limited passive adaptation and only people living in homes with whole-house air-conditioning had less health problems during heatwaves. Tenants and respondents with pre-existing health conditions were the most vulnerable, particularly as those with health conditions were not aware of their vulnerability. The introduction of an Energy Performance Certificate is proposed and discussed as an effective incentive to increase the heat stress resistance of and the general knowledge about the built environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Divergent Cumulative Cultural Evolution

OpenAIRE

Marriott, Chris; Chebib, Jobran

2016-01-01

Divergent cumulative cultural evolution occurs when the cultural evolutionary trajectory diverges from the biological evolutionary trajectory. We consider the conditions under which divergent cumulative cultural evolution can occur. We hypothesize that two conditions are necessary. First that genetic and cultural information are stored separately in the agent. Second cultural information must be transferred horizontally between agents of different generations. We implement a model with these ...

An electrical betweenness approach for vulnerability assessment of power grids considering the capacity of generators and load

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Kai; Zhang, Bu-han; Zhang, Zhe; Yin, Xiang-gen; Wang, Bo

2011-11-01

Most existing research on the vulnerability of power grids based on complex networks ignores the electrical characteristics and the capacity of generators and load. In this paper, the electrical betweenness is defined by considering the maximal demand of load and the capacity of generators in power grids. The loss of load, which reflects the ability of power grids to provide sufficient power to customers, is introduced to measure the vulnerability together with the size of the largest cluster. The simulation results of the IEEE-118 bus system and the Central China Power Grid show that the cumulative distributions of node electrical betweenness follow a power-law and that the nodes with high electrical betweenness play critical roles in both topological structure and power transmission of power grids. The results prove that the model proposed in this paper is effective for analyzing the vulnerability of power grids.

Cumulative risk, cumulative outcome: a 20-year longitudinal study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leslie Atkinson

Full Text Available Cumulative risk (CR models provide some of the most robust findings in the developmental literature, predicting numerous and varied outcomes. Typically, however, these outcomes are predicted one at a time, across different samples, using concurrent designs, longitudinal designs of short duration, or retrospective designs. We predicted that a single CR index, applied within a single sample, would prospectively predict diverse outcomes, i.e., depression, intelligence, school dropout, arrest, smoking, and physical disease from childhood to adulthood. Further, we predicted that number of risk factors would predict number of adverse outcomes (cumulative outcome; CO. We also predicted that early CR (assessed at age 5/6 explains variance in CO above and beyond that explained by subsequent risk (assessed at ages 12/13 and 19/20. The sample consisted of 284 individuals, 48% of whom were diagnosed with a speech/language disorder. Cumulative risk, assessed at 5/6-, 12/13-, and 19/20-years-old, predicted aforementioned outcomes at age 25/26 in every instance. Furthermore, number of risk factors was positively associated with number of negative outcomes. Finally, early risk accounted for variance beyond that explained by later risk in the prediction of CO. We discuss these findings in terms of five criteria posed by these data, positing a "mediated net of adversity" model, suggesting that CR may increase some central integrative factor, simultaneously augmenting risk across cognitive, quality of life, psychiatric and physical health outcomes.

Secant cumulants and toric geometry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Michalek, M.; Oeding, L.; Zwiernik, P.W.

2012-01-01

We study the secant line variety of the Segre product of projective spaces using special cumulant coordinates adapted for secant varieties. We show that the secant variety is covered by open normal toric varieties. We prove that in cumulant coordinates its ideal is generated by binomial quadrics. We

Negative emotional reactivity as a marker of vulnerability in the development of borderline personality disorder symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Stepp, Stephanie D; Scott, Lori N; Jones, Neil P; Whalen, Diana J; Hipwell, Alison E

2016-02-01

Negative emotionality is a distinguishing feature of borderline personality disorder (BPD). However, this person-level characteristic has not been examined as a marker of vulnerability in the development of this disorder. The current study utilized a multimethod approach to examine the interplay between negative emotional reactivity and cumulative exposure to family adversity on the development of BPD symptoms across 3 years (ages 16-18) in a diverse, at-risk sample of adolescent girls (N = 113). A latent variable of negative emotional reactivity was created from multiple assessments at age 16: self-report, emotion ratings to stressors from ecological assessments across 1 week, and observer-rated negative affectivity during a mother-daughter conflict discussion task. Exposure to family adversity was measured cumulatively between ages 5 and 16 from annual assessments of family poverty, single parent household, and difficult life circumstances. The results from latent growth curve models demonstrated a significant interaction between negative emotional reactivity and family adversity, such that exposure to adversity strengthened the association between negative emotional reactivity and BPD symptoms. In addition, family adversity predicted increasing BPD symptoms during late adolescence. These findings highlight negative emotional reactivity as a marker of vulnerability that ultimately increases risk for the development of BPD symptoms.

Negative emotional reactivity as a marker of vulnerability in the development of borderline personality disorder symptoms

Science.gov (United States)

Stepp, Stephanie D.; Scott, Lori N.; Jones, Neil P.; Whalen, Diana J.; Hipwell, Alison E.

2015-01-01

Negative emotionality is a distinguishing feature of borderline personality disorder (BPD). However, this person-level characteristic has not been examined as a marker of vulnerability in the development of this disorder. The current study utilized a multi-method approach to examine the interplay between negative emotional reactivity and cumulative exposure to family adversity on the development of BPD symptoms across three years (ages 16–18) in a diverse, at-risk sample of adolescent girls (N=113). A latent variable of negative emotional reactivity was created from multiple assessments at age 16: (1) self-report, (2) emotion ratings to stressors from ecological assessments across one week, and (3) observer-rated negative affectivity during a mother-daughter conflict discussion task. Exposure to family adversity was measured cumulatively between ages 5 and 16 from annual assessments of family poverty, single parent household, and difficult life circumstances. Results from latent growth curve models demonstrated a significant interaction between negative emotional reactivity and family adversity, such that exposure to adversity strengthened the association between negative emotional reactivity and BPD symptoms. Additionally, family adversity predicted increasing BPD symptoms during late adolescence. These findings highlight negative emotional reactivity as a marker of vulnerability that ultimately increases risk for the development of BPD symptoms. PMID:25925083

Frailty and life satisfaction in Shanghai older adults: The roles of age and social vulnerability.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Fang; Gu, Danan; Mitnitski, Arnold

2016-01-01

This study aims to examine the relationship between frailty and life satisfaction and the roles of age and social vulnerability underlying the links in Chinese older adults. Using a cross-sectional sample of 1970 adults aged 65 and older in 2013 in Shanghai, we employed regression analyses to investigate the interaction between frailty and age on life satisfaction in the whole sample and in different social vulnerability groups. Life satisfaction was measured using a sum score of satisfaction with thirteen domains. Using a cumulative deficit approach, frailty was constructed from fifty-two variables and social vulnerability was derived from thirty-five variables. Frailty was negatively associated with life satisfaction. The interaction between frailty and age was significant for life satisfaction, such that the negative association between frailty and life satisfaction was stronger among the young-old aged 65-79 than among the old-old aged 80+. Moreover, frailty's stronger association with life satisfaction in the young-old than in the old-old was only found among those in the 2nd and 3rd tertiles of social vulnerability, but not for those in the 1st tertile of social vulnerability. Relation between frailty and life satisfaction likely weakens with age. A higher level of social vulnerability enlarges the negative impact of frailty on life satisfaction with a greater extent in the young-old. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulative Culture and Future Thinking: Is Mental Time Travel a Prerequisite to Cumulative Cultural Evolution?

Science.gov (United States)

Vale, G. L.; Flynn, E. G.; Kendal, R. L.

2012-01-01

Cumulative culture denotes the, arguably, human capacity to build on the cultural behaviors of one's predecessors, allowing increases in cultural complexity to occur such that many of our cultural artifacts, products and technologies have progressed beyond what a single individual could invent alone. This process of cumulative cultural evolution…

A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

2015-12-18

In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

System-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

Science.gov (United States)

Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

1989-01-01

Cumulative-binomial computer program, NEWTONP, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Program finds probability required to yield given system reliability. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

Cumulative human impacts on marine predators.

Science.gov (United States)

Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J; Halpern, Benjamin S; Breed, Greg A; Nickel, Barry; Teutschel, Nicole M; Crowder, Larry B; Benson, Scott; Dutton, Peter H; Bailey, Helen; Kappes, Michelle A; Kuhn, Carey E; Weise, Michael J; Mate, Bruce; Shaffer, Scott A; Hassrick, Jason L; Henry, Robert W; Irvine, Ladd; McDonald, Birgitte I; Robinson, Patrick W; Block, Barbara A; Costa, Daniel P

2013-01-01

Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact (CUI) on marine predators by combining electronic tracking data of eight protected predator species (n=685 individuals) in the California Current Ecosystem with data on 24 anthropogenic stressors. We show significant variation in CUI with some of the highest impacts within US National Marine Sanctuaries. High variation in underlying species and cumulative impact distributions means that neither alone is sufficient for effective spatial management. Instead, comprehensive management approaches accounting for both cumulative human impacts and trade-offs among multiple stressors must be applied in planning the use of marine resources.

Common-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

Science.gov (United States)

Scheuer, Ernest, M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

1989-01-01

Cumulative-binomial computer program, CROSSER, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), used independently of one another. Point of equality between reliability of system and common reliability of components found. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

Cumulative effects assessment: Does scale matter?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Therivel, Riki; Ross, Bill

2007-01-01

Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is (or should be) an integral part of environmental assessment at both the project and the more strategic level. CEA helps to link the different scales of environmental assessment in that it focuses on how a given receptor is affected by the totality of plans, projects and activities, rather than on the effects of a particular plan or project. This article reviews how CEAs consider, and could consider, scale issues: spatial extent, level of detail, and temporal issues. It is based on an analysis of Canadian project-level CEAs and UK strategic-level CEAs. Based on a review of literature and, especially, case studies with which the authors are familiar, it concludes that scale issues are poorly considered at both levels, with particular problems being unclear or non-existing cumulative effects scoping methodologies; poor consideration of past or likely future human activities beyond the plan or project in question; attempts to apportion 'blame' for cumulative effects; and, at the plan level, limited management of cumulative effects caused particularly by the absence of consent regimes. Scale issues are important in most of these problems. However both strategic-level and project-level CEA have much potential for managing cumulative effects through better siting and phasing of development, demand reduction and other behavioural changes, and particularly through setting development consent rules for projects. The lack of strategic resource-based thresholds constrains the robust management of strategic-level cumulative effects

Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children’s learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission—the cornerstone of human cultural diversity. PMID:28739945

Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Legare, Cristine H

2017-07-24

The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children's learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission-the cornerstone of human cultural diversity.

Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

1989-01-01

Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

Australian climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hennessy, K.; Fitzharris, B.

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability made the following conclusions about Australia (Hennessy et al., 2007): Regional climate change has occurred. Since 1950, there has been 0.7 0 C warming, with more heat waves, fewer frosts, more rain in north-west Australia, less rain in southern and eastern Australia, an increase in the intensity of Australian droughts and a rise in sea level of about 70 mm. Australia is already experiencing impacts from recent climate change. These are now evident in increasing stresses on water supply and agriculture, changed natural ecosystems, and reduced seasonal snow cover. Some adaptation has already occurred in response to observed climate change. Examples come from sectors such as water, natural ecosystems, agriculture, horticulture and coasts. However, ongoing vulnerability to extreme events is demonstrated by substantial economic losses caused by droughts, floods, fire, tropical cyclones and hail. The climate of the 21st century is virtually certain to be warmer, with changes in extreme events. Heat waves and fires are virtually certain to increase in intensity and frequency. Floods, landslides, droughts and storm surges are very likely to become more frequent and intense, and snow and frost are very likely to become less frequent. Large areas of mainland Australia are likely to have less soil moisture. Potential impacts of climate change are likely to be substantial without further adaptation; As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia; Ongoing coastal development and population growth, in areas such as Cairns and south-east Queensland, are projected to exacerbate risks from sea level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050. Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich

Cumulative human impacts on marine predators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J

2013-01-01

Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact...

Assessing flash flood vulnerability using a multi-vulnerability approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karagiorgos Konstantinos

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In the framework of flood risk assessment, while the understanding of hazard and exposure has significantly improved over the last years, knowledge on vulnerability remains one of the challenges. Current approaches in vulnerability research are characterised by a division between social scientists and natural scientists. In order to close this gap, we present an approach that combines information on physical and social vulnerability in order to merge information on the susceptibility of elements at risk and society. With respect to physical vulnerability, the study is based on local-scale vulnerability models using nonlinear regression approaches. Modified Weibull distributions were fit to the data in order to represent the relationship between process magnitude and degree of loss. With respect to social vulnerability we conducted a door-to-door survey which resulted in particular insights on flood risk awareness and resilience strategies of exposed communities. In general, both physical and social vulnerability were low in comparison with other European studies, which may result from (a specific building regulations in the four Mediterranean test sites as well as general design principles leading to low structural susceptibility of elements at risk, and (b relatively low social vulnerability of citizens exposed. As a result it is shown that a combination of different perspectives of vulnerability will lead to a better understanding of exposure and capacities in flood risk management.

An analysis of cumulative risks based on biomonitoring data for six phthalates using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

Science.gov (United States)

The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single chemical drives the cumulative risk of an individual exposed to multiple chemicals. Phthalates are a class of chemicals with ubiquitous exposures in the general population that have the potential to cause ...

Chapter 19. Cumulative watershed effects and watershed analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie M. Reid

1998-01-01

Cumulative watershed effects are environmental changes that are affected by more than.one land-use activity and that are influenced by.processes involving the generation or transport.of water. Almost all environmental changes are.cumulative effects, and almost all land-use.activities contribute to cumulative effects

Medical Students' Empathy for Vulnerable Groups: Results From a Survey and Reflective Writing Assignment.

Science.gov (United States)

Wellbery, Caroline; Saunders, Pamela A; Kureshi, Sarah; Visconti, Adam

2017-12-01

As medical education curricula increasingly acknowledge the contributions of the social determinants of health to individual health, new methods of engaging students in the care of vulnerable groups are needed. Empathy is one way to connect students with patients, but little is known about how to nurture students' empathy on behalf of populations. This study examined the relationship between individual and social empathy as groundwork for cultivating students' empathy for vulnerable groups. In 2014-2015, first-year medical students completed the Social Empathy Index at the start and end of a two-semester population health course, and they completed a reflective writing assignment exploring the challenges of caring for vulnerable patients. Pre- and posttest mean survey scores were compared, and reflective writing assignments were analyzed for themes concerning social empathy. Data from 130 students were analyzed. Scores for the contextual understanding of systemic barriers domain increased significantly. There was a trend toward increased cumulative social empathy scores that did not reach statistical significance. Students' essays revealed three themes relating to individual empathy as the foundation for social empathy; civic and moral obligations; and the role of institutional practices in caring for vulnerable groups. This study extends understanding of empathy beyond care for the individual to include care for vulnerable groups. Thus, social empathy may function as a valuable concept in developing curricula to support students' commitment to care for the underserved. Educators first need to address the many barriers students cited that impede both individual and social empathy.

An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

Science.gov (United States)

The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

Managing cumulative impacts: A key to sustainability?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunsaker, C.T.

1994-12-31

This paper addresses how science can be more effectively used in creating policy to manage cumulative effects on ecosystems. The paper focuses on the scientific techniques that we have to identify and to assess cumulative impacts on ecosystems. The term ``sustainable development`` was brought into common use by the World Commission on Environment and Development (The Brundtland Commission) in 1987. The Brundtland Commission report highlighted the need to simultaneously address developmental and environmental imperatives simultaneously by calling for development that ``meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the needs of future generations.`` We cannot claim to be working toward sustainable development until we can quantitatively assess cumulative impacts on the environment: The two concepts are inextricibally linked in that the elusiveness of cumulative effects likely has the greatest potential of keeping us from achieving sustainability. In this paper, assessment and management frameworks relevant to cumulative impacts are discussed along with recent literature on how to improve such assessments. When possible, examples are given for marine ecosystems.

Patterns of prednisone use during pregnancy in women with rheumatoid arthritis: Daily and cumulative dose.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmsten, Kristin; Rolland, Matthieu; Hebert, Mary F; Clowse, Megan E B; Schatz, Michael; Xu, Ronghui; Chambers, Christina D

2018-04-01

To characterize prednisone use in pregnant women with rheumatoid arthritis using individual-level heat-maps and clustering individual trajectories of prednisone dose, and to evaluate the association between prednisone dose trajectory groups and gestational length. This study included pregnant women with rheumatoid arthritis who enrolled in the MotherToBaby Autoimmune Diseases in Pregnancy Study (2003-2014) before gestational week 20 and reported prednisone use without another oral glucocorticoid during pregnancy (n = 254). Information on medication use and pregnancy outcomes was collected by telephone interview plus by medical record review. Prednisone daily dose and cumulative dose were plotted by gestational day using a heat map for each individual. K-means clustering was used to cluster individual trajectories of prednisone dose into groups. The associations between trajectory group and demographics, disease severity measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire at enrollment, and gestational length were evaluated. Women used prednisone 3 to 292 days during pregnancy, with daily doses ranging from <1 to 60 mg. Total cumulative dose ranged from 8 to 6225 mg. Disease severity, non-biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug use, and gestational length varied significantly by trajectory group. After adjusting for disease severity, non-biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug use, and other covariates, the highest vs lowest daily dose trajectory group was associated with reduced gestational age at delivery (β: -2.3 weeks (95%: -3.4, -1.3)), as was the highest vs lowest cumulative dose trajectory group (β: -2.6 weeks (95%: -3.6, -1.5)). In pregnant women with rheumatoid arthritis, patterns of higher prednisone dose were associated with shorter gestational length compared with lower dose. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Vulnerability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Issa, Sahar; van der Molen, Irna; Stel, Nora

2015-01-01

This chapter reviews the literature on vulnerability. Together with Chapter 3, that offers a literature review specifically focused on resilience, it lays the conceptual foundations for the empirical chapters in this edited volume. Vulnerability symbolizes the susceptibility of a certain system to

Vulnerability of cattle production to climate change on U.S. rangelands

Science.gov (United States)

Matt C. Reeves; Karen E. Bagne

2016-01-01

We examined multiple climate change effects on cattle production for U.S. rangelands to estimate relative change and identify sources of vulnerability among seven regions. Climate change effects to 2100 were projected from published models for four elements: forage quantity, vegetation type trajectory, heat stress, and forage variability. Departure of projections from...

Combining demographic and genetic factors to assess population vulnerability in stream species

Science.gov (United States)

Erin L, Landguth; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Jones, Leslie W.; Waples, Robin S.; Whited, Diane; Lowe, Winsor H.; Lucotch, John; Neville, Helen; Luikart, Gordon

2014-01-01

Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss

Non-Chemical Stressors and Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Current Initiatives and Potential Air Pollutant Interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Ari S.; Sax, Sonja N.; Wason, Susan C.; Campleman, Sharan L.

2011-01-01

Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit

Heat Shock Protein Beta-1 Modifies Anterior to Posterior Purkinje Cell Vulnerability in a Mouse Model of Niemann-Pick Type C Disease.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chan Chung

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Selective neuronal vulnerability is characteristic of most degenerative disorders of the CNS, yet mechanisms underlying this phenomenon remain poorly characterized. Many forms of cerebellar degeneration exhibit an anterior-to-posterior gradient of Purkinje cell loss including Niemann-Pick type C1 (NPC disease, a lysosomal storage disorder characterized by progressive neurological deficits that often begin in childhood. Here, we sought to identify candidate genes underlying vulnerability of Purkinje cells in anterior cerebellar lobules using data freely available in the Allen Brain Atlas. This approach led to the identification of 16 candidate neuroprotective or susceptibility genes. We demonstrate that one candidate gene, heat shock protein beta-1 (HSPB1, promoted neuronal survival in cellular models of NPC disease through a mechanism that involved inhibition of apoptosis. Additionally, we show that over-expression of wild type HSPB1 or a phosphomimetic mutant in NPC mice slowed the progression of motor impairment and diminished cerebellar Purkinje cell loss. We confirmed the modulatory effect of Hspb1 on Purkinje cell degeneration in vivo, as knockdown by Hspb1 shRNA significantly enhanced neuron loss. These results suggest that strategies to promote HSPB1 activity may slow the rate of cerebellar degeneration in NPC disease and highlight the use of bioinformatics tools to uncover pathways leading to neuronal protection in neurodegenerative disorders.

Evaluating work/recovery schedules in terms of whole body heat storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hardcastle, S.G. [Natural Resources Canada, Sudbury, ON (Canada). CANMET Mining and Mineral Sciences Laboratories; Stapleton, J.M.; Kenny, G.P. [Ottawa Univ., Ottawa, ON (Canada). School of Human Kinetics, Human and Environmental Physiology Research Unit; Allen, C. [Vale Inco, Copper Cliff, ON (Canada)

2010-07-01

This paper reported on heat stress related research aimed at better managing the heat exposure of underground miners. The potential for underground miners to experience heat stress or strain is increasing due to greater mining depth; mechanization, and a trend towards larger diesel equipment; an aging workforce; an increasing amount of personal protective equipment worn to prevent injuries (that has led to most of the miner's body being covered) and increases in the surface climate that are superimposed through the underground workplace. This paper focused on research involving metabolic heat storage and the possibility of heat strain from elevated core temperatures. It targeted work/recovery cycles and the recovery strategies between work bouts. The first study examined the cumulative change in body heat content for a moderate metabolic rate and increasing the recovery allocation as per the TLV screening criteria to offset an increase in the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT). The second study examined strategies that could be used between work bouts and how they affect the thermoregulatory system, heat generation or losses and net cumulative heat storage. The calorimeter based work suggested that a miner's clothing may be improved to promote evaporative cooling, and that work recovery regimes could be modified to maximize recovery. 10 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

Applicability of vulnerability maps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersen, L.J.; Gosk, E.

1989-01-01

A number of aspects to vulnerability maps are discussed: the vulnerability concept, mapping purposes, possible users, and applicability of vulnerability maps. Problems associated with general-type vulnerability mapping, including large-scale maps, universal pollutant, and universal pollution scenario are also discussed. An alternative approach to vulnerability assessment - specific vulnerability mapping for limited areas, specific pollutant, and predefined pollution scenario - is suggested. A simplification of the vulnerability concept is proposed in order to make vulnerability mapping more objective and by this means more comparable. An extension of the vulnerability concept to the rest of the hydrogeological cycle (lakes, rivers, and the sea) is proposed. Some recommendations regarding future activities are given

El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dugand Armando

1944-03-01

Full Text Available Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin duda alguna al A. Dugandii StandI. Por otra parte, Santiago Cortés (FI. Colomb. 206. 1898; ed, 2: 239. 1912 cita el Cumulá "de Anapoima y otros lugares del (rio Magdalena" diciendo que pertenece a las Leguminosas, pero la brevísima descripción que este autor hace de la madera "naranjada y notable por densidad, dureza y resistencia a la humedad", me induce a creer que se trata del mismo Cumula coleccionado recientemente en Tocaima, ya que esta población esta situada a pocos kilómetros de Anapoima. Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin

Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability by Direct Binomial Regression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard......Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard...

7 CFR 42.132 - Determining cumulative sum values.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Determining cumulative sum values. 42.132 Section 42... Determining cumulative sum values. (a) The parameters for the on-line cumulative sum sampling plans for AQL's... 3 1 2.5 3 1 2 1 (b) At the beginning of the basic inspection period, the CuSum value is set equal to...

The Algebra of the Cumulative Percent Operation.

Science.gov (United States)

Berry, Andrew J.

2002-01-01

Discusses how to help students avoid some pervasive reasoning errors in solving cumulative percent problems. Discusses the meaning of ."%+b%." the additive inverse of ."%." and other useful applications. Emphasizes the operational aspect of the cumulative percent concept. (KHR)

Putting the puzzle together: Reducing vulnerability through people-focused planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hutton, D.

2009-01-01

Supporting and integrating vulnerable persons into emergency management has emerged as an increasing priority in emergency management in Canada. Events such as the 2003 European heat wave and Hurricane Katrina have shown that disasters almost always have the harshest affects on the frail elderly, people with disabilities, the disadvantaged and the least able. While it is neither possible-nor the role of emergency management-to eliminate or reduce many factors that make people vulnerable to hazards, it is important that emergency managers work closely with communities to not only identify risks and vulnerabilities, but also to build on the resources and capacities that enable people to effectively prepare for, respond to and recover from threats of all types. To this end, emergency management must take into account the level of capacities and resources that a community has to prepare for emergencies and disasters, in addition to people's vulnerabilities to extreme events. To be successful, people must be viewed not as a part of the problem to be solved or managed during an emergency, but rather a part of the solution to building more resilient and disaster-resistant societies. This requires 'people-focused' planning methodologies that move beyond planning for to planning with all segments of society, including the most vulnerable and marginalised groups that are more readily overlooked. This not only begins to ensure that emergency planning and response capacities can effectively address the diverse needs of all people, but is also an important step to empowering the most vulnerable to prepare themselves for emergencies and other critical events. (authors)

Heat-related illness in China, summer of 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Shaohua; Huang, Cunrui; Bai, Li; Chu, Cordia; Liu, Qiyong

2016-01-01

Extreme heat events have occurred more frequently in China in recent years, leading to serious impacts on human life and the health care system. To identify the characteristics of individuals with heat-related illnesses in China during the summer of 2013, we collected the data from the Heat-related Illness Surveillance System in Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). A total of 5758 cases were reported in the summer of 2013, mostly concentrated in urban areas around the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. We found a difference in age distribution of percentage of deaths from heat-related illness between males and females. Severe cases in males mostly occurred in the age group 45-74 years but in females mostly in the age group over 75. A distributed lag non-linear model had been used to identify population vulnerabilities in Ningbo and Chongqing. The results show that there was a clear positive relationship between maximum temperature and heat-related illness, and the heat effect was nonlinear and could last for 3 days. The elderly and males in the range of 45-64 years old might be the most vulnerable people of heat-related illness in China. We also highlighted some deficiencies of the surveillance system, such that the reported data were not accurate, comprehensive, or timely enough at this stage.

EXAFS cumulants of CdSe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diop, D.

1997-04-01

EXAFS functions had been extracted from measurements on the K edge of Se at different temperatures between 20 and 300 K. The analysis of the EXAFS of the filtered first two shells has been done in the wavevector range laying between 2 and 15.5 A -1 in terms of the cumulants of the effective distribution of distances. The cumulants C 3 and C 4 obtained from the phase difference and the amplitude ratio methods have shown the anharmonicity in the vibrations of atoms around their equilibrium position. (author). 13 refs, 3 figs

[Relationship between weather factors and heat stroke in Ningbo city].

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, S H; Wang, A H; Bian, G L; He, T F; Yi, B; Lu, B B; Li, X H; Xu, G Z

2016-08-10

To explore the main effects of weather factors on heat stroke. Data from case report on heat stroke was collected in Ningbo city during 2011 to 2014. Temperature threshold, lag effects and interaction of weather factors on heat stroke had been analyzed, using the piecewise regression model, distributed lag non-linear model, response surface model and other methods. RESULTS showed that temperature and humidity were more correlated with heat stroke than other weather-related factors. Through different models, daily average temperature always presented a better role in predicting the heat stroke, rather than maximum or minimum temperature. Positive association between daily average temperature and heat stroke was obvious, especially at lag 0-1 days, with its threshold as 29.1 (95% CI: 28.7-29.5) ℃ . The cumulative RR of heat stroke at 90(th) percentile of daily average temperature versus 10(th) percentile was 14.05 (95% CI: 7.23-27.31) in lag 0-1 days. The effects of daily relative humidity on heat stroke appeared nonlinear, with low humidity showing a negative effect on heat stroke and could lag for 1-4 days. However, the effect of high humidity was not significant, with the cumulative RR of low humidity and high humidity as 2.35 (95%CI: 1.27-4.33) and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.40-1.85) in lag of 0-4 days, respectively. We also noticed that there was an interactive effect of both temperature and humidity on heat stroke. Under high temperature and low humidity, the risk of heat stroke showed the highest. Temperature and humidity showed obvious relationship with heat stroke in Ningbo city, with the threshold temperature as 29.1 ℃. Under high temperature and low humidity, the risk of heat stroke became the highest.

Raising Awareness on Heat Related Mortality in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Arrighi, J.; Burkart, K.; Nissan, H.

2017-12-01

Extreme heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States and Europe, and was responsible for four of the ten deadliest natural disasters worldwide in 2015. Near the tropics, where hot weather is considered the norm, perceived heat risk is often low, but recent heat waves in South Asia have caught the attention of the health community, policy-makers and the public. In a recent collaboration between the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Columbia University and BBC Media Action the effects of extreme heat in Bangladesh were analyzed and the findings were subsequently used as a basis to raise awareness about the impacts of extreme heat on the most vulnerable, to the general public. Analysis of excess heat in Bangladesh between 2003 and 2007 showed that heatwaves occur between April and June with most extreme heat events occurring in May. Between 2003 and 2007 it is estimated that an average of 1500 people died per year due to heatwaves lasting three days or longer, with an eight-day heatwave in 2005 resulting in a minimum of 3,800 excess deaths. Utilizing these findings BBC Media Action launched an online communications campaign in May 2017 ultimately reaching approximately 3.9 million people with information on reducing the impacts of extreme heat. This presentation will highlight key findings from the study of heat related mortality in Bangladesh as well as highlight the benefit of collaboration between scientists and communicators for increasing awareness about the effects of extreme heat on the most vulnerable.

About the cumulants of periodic signals

Science.gov (United States)

Barrau, Axel; El Badaoui, Mohammed

2018-01-01

This note studies cumulants of time series. These functions originating from the probability theory being commonly used as features of deterministic signals, their classical properties are examined in this modified framework. We show additivity of cumulants, ensured in the case of independent random variables, requires here a different hypothesis. Practical applications are proposed, in particular an analysis of the failure of the JADE algorithm to separate some specific periodic signals.

VULNERABILITY OF COMPANIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ARMEAN ANDREEA

2013-06-01

Full Text Available In present, the study of vulnerability of companies is increasing in every field due to the unstable economic environment influences. The object of this research is to define and identify vulnerabilities of companies and the establishment of evaluation methods at their level. This article emphasizes the importance and usefulness of one of the best known model in this way, from our point of view, namely Băileşteanu, Negrila Pattern. This pattern covers both external factors and internal ones, that increase vulnerabilities of companies, and fit the companies in which the state of vulnerability are (vitality, viability, vulnerability, high vulnerability, difficulty and high difficulty, with a matrix. The result of the research is that any company belonging to any field, can be analyzed using this model, and assigned to one of the conditions defined within.

sozialwissenInvestigating public places and impacts of heat stress in the city of Aachen, Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maras, Isabell

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Understanding the role of structure and social aspects regarding heat stress of people in urban areas requires an interdisciplinary scientific approach that connects methods from both natural sciences and social sciences. In this study, we combine three approaches to provide an interdisciplinary analysis of the structure and social components of heat stress in the city of Aachen, Germany. First, we assess the overall spatial structure of the urban heat island using spatially distributed measurements from mobile air temperature recordings on public transport units combined with spatially distributed geo-statistical data. The results indicate that the time of day matters: During the afternoon, areas with a relative low building density, like the industrial area northeast of the inner city, are the warmest, while surfaces in high-building-density areas like the inner city heat up faster during the evening. Second, we combine these measurements with place-based survey data collected in 2010 from residents aged 50 to 92 regarding their individual housing conditions, medical history and social integration to examine the match among heat-based stress of older residents, social conditions and elevated temperatures in their residential quarter. We identify disadvantaged areas for specific already-disadvantaged demographic groups in the city, pointing to a cumulation of inequalities, including heat stress among the most vulnerable. Third, we compare data of biometeorological measurements on urban public squares during the afternoon with results of the micrometeorological model ENVI-met to examine the spatial variability of the inner-city heat load. We complement the modelling results with on-site interviews to evaluate people’s heat perception at the same public places. A simulation shows that additional vegetation would increase thermal comfort at these public places, whereby the heat load assessed using the predicted mean vote (PMV value would

Cumulative Student Loan Debt in Minnesota, 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Williams-Wyche, Shaun

2016-01-01

To better understand student debt in Minnesota, the Minnesota Office of Higher Education (the Office) gathers information on cumulative student loan debt from Minnesota degree-granting institutions. These data detail the number of students with loans by institution, the cumulative student loan debt incurred at that institution, and the percentage…

High cumulants of conserved charges and their statistical uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Li-Zhu, Chen; Ye-Yin, Zhao; Xue, Pan; Zhi-Ming, Li; Yuan-Fang, Wu

2017-10-01

We study the influence of measured high cumulants of conserved charges on their associated statistical uncertainties in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. With a given number of events, the measured cumulants randomly fluctuate with an approximately normal distribution, while the estimated statistical uncertainties are found to be correlated with corresponding values of the obtained cumulants. Generally, with a given number of events, the larger the cumulants we measure, the larger the statistical uncertainties that are estimated. The error-weighted averaged cumulants are dependent on statistics. Despite this effect, however, it is found that the three sigma rule of thumb is still applicable when the statistics are above one million. Supported by NSFC (11405088, 11521064, 11647093), Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (2014CB845402) and Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST) (2016YFE0104800)

Cumulative stress and autonomic dysregulation in a community sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Lampert, Rachel; Tuit, Keri; Hong, Kwang-Ik; Donovan, Theresa; Lee, Forrester; Sinha, Rajita

2016-05-01

Whether cumulative stress, including both chronic stress and adverse life events, is associated with decreased heart rate variability (HRV), a non-invasive measure of autonomic status which predicts poor cardiovascular outcomes, is unknown. Healthy community dwelling volunteers (N = 157, mean age 29 years) participated in the Cumulative Stress/Adversity Interview (CAI), a 140-item event interview measuring cumulative adversity including major life events, life trauma, recent life events and chronic stressors, and underwent 24-h ambulatory ECG monitoring. HRV was analyzed in the frequency domain and standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN) calculated. Initial simple regression analyses revealed that total cumulative stress score, chronic stressors and cumulative adverse life events (CALE) were all inversely associated with ultra low-frequency (ULF), very low-frequency (VLF) and low-frequency (LF) power and SDNN (all p accounting for additional appreciable variance. For VLF and LF, both total cumulative stress and chronic stress significantly contributed to the variance alone but were not longer significant after adjusting for race and health behaviors. In summary, total cumulative stress, and its components of adverse life events and chronic stress were associated with decreased cardiac autonomic function as measured by HRV. Findings suggest one potential mechanism by which stress may exert adverse effects on mortality in healthy individuals. Primary preventive strategies including stress management may prove beneficial.

Cumulative processes and quark distribution in nuclei

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kondratyuk, L.; Shmatikov, M.

1984-01-01

Assuming existence of multiquark (mainly 12q) bags in nuclei the spectra of cumulative nucleons and mesons produced in high-energy particle-nucleus collisions are discussed. The exponential form of quark momentum distribution in 12q-bag (agreeing well with the experimental data on lepton-nucleus interactions at large q 2 ) is shown to result in quasi-exponential distribution of cumulative particles over the light-cone variable αsub(B). The dependence of f(αsub(B); psub(perpendicular)) (where psub(perpendicular) is the transverse momentum of the bag) upon psub(perpendicular) is considered. The yields of cumulative resonances as well as effects related to the u- and d-quark distributions in N > Z nuclei being different are dicscussed

Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability: Marginal and Cause-Specific Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

2005-01-01

cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling......cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling...

Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

2000-01-01

Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

Original and cumulative prospect theory: a discussion of empirical differences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wakker, P.P.; Fennema, H.

1997-01-01

This note discusses differences between prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory. It shows that cumulative prospect theory is not merely a formal correction of some theoretical problems in prospect theory, but it also gives different predictions. Experiments are described that favor cumulative

Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Akerlof, Karen L; Delamater, Paul L; Boules, Caroline R; Upperman, Crystal R; Mitchell, Clifford S

2015-12-04

Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change's health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change-due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards-already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents' climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen L. Akerlof

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change’s health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change—due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards—already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents’ climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126. We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Akerlof, Karen L.; Delamater, Paul L.; Boules, Caroline R.; Upperman, Crystal R.; Mitchell, Clifford S.

2015-01-01

Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change’s health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change—due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards—already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents’ climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages. PMID:26690184

Cumulative radiation dose of multiple trauma patients during their hospitalization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Zhikang; Sun Jianzhong; Zhao Zudan

2012-01-01

Objective: To study the cumulative radiation dose of multiple trauma patients during their hospitalization and to analyze the dose influence factors. Methods: The DLP for CT and DR were retrospectively collected from the patients during June, 2009 and April, 2011 at a university affiliated hospital. The cumulative radiation doses were calculated by summing typical effective doses of the anatomic regions scanned. Results: The cumulative radiation doses of 113 patients were collected. The maximum,minimum and the mean values of cumulative effective doses were 153.3, 16.48 mSv and (52.3 ± 26.6) mSv. Conclusions: Multiple trauma patients have high cumulative radiation exposure. Therefore, the management of cumulative radiation doses should be enhanced. To establish the individualized radiation exposure archives will be helpful for the clinicians and technicians to make decision whether to image again and how to select the imaging parameters. (authors)

Perspectives on cumulative risks and impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Faust, John B

2010-01-01

Cumulative risks and impacts have taken on different meanings in different regulatory and programmatic contexts at federal and state government levels. Traditional risk assessment methodologies, with considerable limitations, can provide a framework for the evaluation of cumulative risks from chemicals. Under an environmental justice program in California, cumulative impacts are defined to include exposures, public health effects, or environmental effects in a geographic area from the emission or discharge of environmental pollution from all sources, through all media. Furthermore, the evaluation of these effects should take into account sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors where possible and to the extent data are available. Key aspects to this potential approach include the consideration of exposures (versus risk), socioeconomic factors, the geographic or community-level assessment scale, and the inclusion of not only health effects but also environmental effects as contributors to impact. Assessments of this type extend the boundaries of the types of information that toxicologists generally provide for risk management decisions.

Cumulative particle production in the quark recombination model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gavrilov, V.B.; Leksin, G.A.

1987-01-01

Production of cumulative particles in hadron-nuclear inteactions at high energies is considered within the framework of recombination quark model. Predictions for inclusive cross sections of production of cumulative particles and different resonances containing quarks in s state are made

Differences on the effect of heat waves on mortality by sociodemographic and urban landscape characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yihan; Dadvand, Payam; Barrera-Gómez, Jose; Sartini, Claudio; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Borrell, Carme; Medina-Ramón, Mercè; Sunyer, Jordi; Basagaña, Xavier

2013-06-01

Mortality increases during heat waves have been reported worldwide. The magnitude of these increases can vary within regions according to sociodemographic and urban landscape characteristics. The objectives of this study were to explore this variation and its determinants, and to identify the most heat-vulnerable areas by mapping heat vulnerability. We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover analysis using daily mortality in the Barcelona metropolitan area during the warm seasons of 1999-2006. Temperature data on the date of death were assigned to each individual, which were assigned to their census tract of residence. Eight census tract-level variables on socioeconomic or built environment characteristics were obtained from the census. Residence surrounding greenness was obtained from satellite data. The relative risk (RR) of mortality after three consecutive hot days (defined as those exceeding the 95th percentile of maximum temperature) was calculated via conditional logistic regression. Effect modification was examined by including interaction terms. Analyses were based on 52 806 deaths. The effect of three consecutive hot days was a 30% increase in all-cause mortality (RR=1.30, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.38). Heterogeneity of this effect was observed across census tracts. The effect of heat on mortality was higher in the census tracts with a large percentage of old buildings (RR=1.21, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.46), manual workers (RR=1.25, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.64) and residents perceiving little surrounding greenness (RR=1.29, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.65). After three consecutive hot days, mortality doubled in the most heat-vulnerable census tracts. Sociodemographic and urban landscape characteristics are associated to mortality risk during heat waves and are useful to build heat vulnerability maps.

A comparative analysis of heat waves and associated mortality in St. Louis, Missouri--1980 and 1995.

Science.gov (United States)

Smoyer, K E

1998-08-01

This research investigates heat-related mortality during the 1980 and 1995 heat waves in St. Louis, Missouri. St. Louis has a long history of extreme summer weather, and heat-related mortality is a public health concern. Heat waves are defined as days with apparent temperatures exceeding 40.6 degrees C (105 degrees F). The study uses a multivariate analysis to investigate the relationship between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season. The heat wave of 1980 was more severe and had higher associated mortality than that of 1995. To learn if changing population characteristics, in addition to weather conditions, contributed to this difference, changes in population vulnerability between 1980 and 1995 are evaluated under simulated heat wave conditions. The findings show that St. Louis remains at risk of heat wave mortality. In addition, there is evidence that vulnerability has increased despite increased air-conditioning penetration and public health interventions.

Cumulative radiation exposure in children with cystic fibrosis.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

O'Reilly, R

2010-02-01

This retrospective study calculated the cumulative radiation dose for children with cystic fibrosis (CF) attending a tertiary CF centre. Information on 77 children with a mean age of 9.5 years, a follow up time of 658 person years and 1757 studies including 1485 chest radiographs, 215 abdominal radiographs and 57 computed tomography (CT) scans, of which 51 were thoracic CT scans, were analysed. The average cumulative radiation dose was 6.2 (0.04-25) mSv per CF patient. Cumulative radiation dose increased with increasing age and number of CT scans and was greater in children who presented with meconium ileus. No correlation was identified between cumulative radiation dose and either lung function or patient microbiology cultures. Radiation carries a risk of malignancy and children are particularly susceptible. Every effort must be made to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure in these patients whose life expectancy is increasing.

An holistic view on aquifer vulnerability based on a distinction of different types of vulnerability

Science.gov (United States)

De Luca, Domenico Antonio; Lasagna, Manuela; Franchino, Elisa

2016-04-01

AN HOLISTIC VIEW ON AQUIFER VULNERABILITY BASED ON A DISTINCTION OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF VULNERABILITY D.A. De Luca1 , M. Lasagna1, E. Franchino1 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin The concept of vulnerability is certainly useful in the field of groundwater protection. Nevertheless, within the scientific community, the definition of groundwater vulnerability is still debatable and not clear and conclusive. This is probably due to the fact that researchers often have very different experiences and education. A positive effect of it is a constant exchange of ideas, but there are also negative consequences and difficulties in deepening the issue. The different approaches are very important but they are usable only if the concept of vulnerability is standardized: thus, for the sake of clarity, a number of definitions should be laid down, based on the different types of vulnerability. These definitions can then provide the necessary holistic view for the aquifer vulnerability assessment. Nowadays vulnerability methods focus on the degree of vulnerability and the parameters needed for its evaluation, often neglecting to clarify what is the type of vulnerability the proposed methods are referred. The type of vulnerability, indeed, is both logically and hierarchically superior to the degree of vulnerability. More specifically the type of vulnerability represents the evaluation of the hydrogeological conditions considered in the vulnerability assessment and able to influence the way in which the contamination can take place. Currently the only distinction, based on of the type of vulnerability, is referred to intrinsic and specific vulnerability. Intrinsic vulnerability assesses the susceptibility of the receptor based on the natural properties of the land and subsurface; specific vulnerability also includes properties of the analyzed contaminant. This distinction is useful but not exhaustive. In addition to this, e.g., a distinction of vertical vulnerability

Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of the physical vulnerability of elements at risk as part of the risk analysis is an essential aspect for the development of strategies and structural measures for risk reduction. Understanding, analysing and, if possible, quantifying physical vulnerability is a prerequisite for designing strategies and adopting tools for its reduction. The most common methods for assessing physical vulnerability are vulnerability matrices, vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators; however, in most of the cases, these methods are used in a conflicting way rather than in combination. The article focuses on two of these methods: vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability curves express physical vulnerability as a function of the intensity of the process and the degree of loss, considering, in individual cases only, some structural characteristics of the affected buildings. However, a considerable amount of studies argue that vulnerability assessment should focus on the identification of these variables that influence the vulnerability of an element at risk (vulnerability indicators). In this study, an indicator-based methodology (IBM) for mountain hazards including debris flow (Kappes et al., 2012) is applied to a case study for debris flows in South Tyrol, where in the past a vulnerability curve has been developed. The relatively "new" indicator-based method is being scrutinised and recommendations for its improvement are outlined. The comparison of the two methodological approaches and their results is challenging since both methodological approaches deal with vulnerability in a different way. However, it is still possible to highlight their weaknesses and strengths, show clearly that both methodologies are necessary for the assessment of physical vulnerability and provide a preliminary "holistic methodological framework" for physical vulnerability assessment showing how the two approaches may be used in combination in the future.

Measurement of four-particle cumulants and symmetric cumulants with subevent methods in small collision systems with the ATLAS detector

CERN Document Server

Derendarz, Dominik; The ATLAS collaboration

2018-01-01

Measurements of symmetric cumulants SC(n,m)=⟨v2nv2m⟩−⟨v2n⟩⟨v2m⟩ for (n,m)=(2,3) and (2,4) and asymmetric cumulant AC(n) are presented in pp, p+Pb and peripheral Pb+Pb collisions at various collision energies, aiming to probe the long-range collective nature of multi-particle production in small systems. Results are obtained using the standard cumulant method, as well as the two-subevent and three-subevent cumulant methods. Results from the standard method are found to be strongly biased by non-flow correlations as indicated by strong sensitivity to the chosen event class definition. A systematic reduction of non-flow effects is observed when using the two-subevent method and the results become independent of event class definition when the three-subevent method is used. The measured SC(n,m) shows an anti-correlation between v2 and v3, and a positive correlation between v2 and v4. The magnitude of SC(n,m) is constant with Nch in pp collisions, but increases with Nch in p+Pb and Pb+Pb collisions. ...

Online Scheduling in Manufacturing A Cumulative Delay Approach

CERN Document Server

Suwa, Haruhiko

2013-01-01

Online scheduling is recognized as the crucial decision-making process of production control at a phase of “being in production" according to the released shop floor schedule. Online scheduling can be also considered as one of key enablers to realize prompt capable-to-promise as well as available-to-promise to customers along with reducing production lead times under recent globalized competitive markets. Online Scheduling in Manufacturing introduces new approaches to online scheduling based on a concept of cumulative delay. The cumulative delay is regarded as consolidated information of uncertainties under a dynamic environment in manufacturing and can be collected constantly without much effort at any points in time during a schedule execution. In this approach, the cumulative delay of the schedule has the important role of a criterion for making a decision whether or not a schedule revision is carried out. The cumulative delay approach to trigger schedule revisions has the following capabilities for the ...

Defining energy vulnerability in mobility. Measuring energy vulnerability in mobility. Acting against energy vulnerability in mobility. Discussing energy vulnerability in mobility. Task no. 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jouffe, Yves; Massot, Marie-Helene; Noble, Cyprien

2015-01-01

Extensive expansion of urban areas generates transportation needs and energy expenses for mobility. Households already impacted by fuel poverty also suffer from energy vulnerability in their mobility. This report was prepared in the framework of the study of fuel poverty in France in the light of several indicators from existing inquiries, databases and modeling tools. The report is organised in 4 parts dealing with: the definition of energy vulnerability in mobility, its measurement, the possible remedial actions, and the discussions about energy vulnerability in mobility through working group meetings, respectively

Improving cumulative effects assessment in Alberta: Regional strategic assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, Dallas; Lalonde, Kim; McEachern, Menzie; Kenney, John; Mendoza, Gustavo; Buffin, Andrew; Rich, Kate

2011-01-01

The Government of Alberta, Canada is developing a regulatory framework to better manage cumulative environmental effects from development in the province. A key component of this effort is regional planning, which will lay the primary foundation for cumulative effects management into the future. Alberta Environment has considered the information needs of regional planning and has concluded that Regional Strategic Assessment may offer significant advantages if integrated into the planning process, including the overall improvement of cumulative environmental effects assessment in the province.

A bivariate optimal replacement policy with cumulative repair cost ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Min-Tsai Lai

Shock model; cumulative damage model; cumulative repair cost limit; preventive maintenance model. 1. Introduction ... with two types of shocks: one type is failure shock, and the other type is damage ...... Theory, methods and applications.

Added effect of heat wave on mortality in Seoul, Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Won Kyung; Lee, Hye Ah; Lim, Youn Hee; Park, Hyesook

2016-05-01

A heat wave could increase mortality owing to high temperature. However, little is known about the added (duration) effect of heat wave from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and different effect sizes depending on the definition of heat waves and models. A distributed lag non-linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the added effect of heat wave on mortality after adjusting for long-term and intra-seasonal trends and apparent temperature. We evaluated the cumulative relative risk of the added wave effect on mortality on lag days 0-30. The models were constructed using nine definitions of heat wave and two relationships (cubic spline and linear threshold model) between temperature and mortality to leave out the high temperature effect. Further, we performed sensitivity analysis to evaluate the changes in the effect of heat wave on mortality according to the different degrees of freedom for time trend and cubic spline of temperature. We found that heat wave had the added effect from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and it was considerable in the aspect of cumulative risk because of the lagged influence. When heat wave was defined with a threshold of 98th percentile temperature and ≥2, 3, and 4 consecutive days, mortality increased by 14.8 % (7.5-22.6, 95 % confidence interval (CI)), 18.1 % (10.8-26.0, 95 % CI), 18.1 % (10.7-25.9, 95 % CI), respectively, in cubic spline model. When it came to the definitions of 90th and 95th percentile, the risk increase in mortality declined to 3.7-5.8 % and 8.6-11.3 %, respectively. This effect was robust to the flexibility of the model for temperature and time trend, while the definitions of a heat wave were critical in estimating its relationship with mortality. This finding could help deepen our understanding and quantifying of the relationship between heat wave and mortality and select an appropriate definition of heat wave and temperature model in the future

Ranking of European Capitals According to the Impact of Future Heat Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Smid, M.; Costa, A. C.; Russo, S.; Pebesma, E. J.; Canut, C. G.

2017-12-01

In warming Europe, we are witnessing a growth in urban population with aging trend, which will make the society more vulnerable to extreme heat waves. In the period 1950-2015 the occurrence of extreme heat waves increased across European capitals. As an example, Moscow was hit by the strongest heat wave of the present era, killing more than ten thousand people. Here we focus on larger metropolitan areas of European capitals. By using observations and an ensemble of eight EURO-CORDEX models under the RCP8.5 scenario, we calculate a suite of temperature based climate indices. We introduce a simple ranking procedure based on ensemble predictions using the mean of metropolitan grid cells for each capital, and population density as a proxy to quantify the future impact. Results show that the selected ensemble provides solid simulation of climate characteristics over most of the targeted metropolitan areas. All the investigated European metropolitan areas will be more vulnerable to extreme heat in the coming decades. Based on the impact ranking, the results reveal that in near, but mainly in distant future, the extreme heat events in European capitals will be not exclusive to traditionally exposed areas such as the Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of European capitals based on their vulnerability to the extreme heat could be of paramount importance to the decision makers in order to mitigate the heat related mortality, especially with the foreseen increase of global mean temperature. Acknowledgments: The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of Geoinformatics: Enabling Open Cities (GEO-C), the project funded by the European Commission within the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, International Training Networks (ITN), European Joint Doctorates (EJD). Grant Agreement number 642332 — GEO-C — H2020-MSCA-ITN-2014.

An Assessment of Vulnerability and Trade-offs of Dairy Farmers of India to Climate Variability and Change

Science.gov (United States)

Radhakrishnan, Aparna; Gupta, Jancy; Ravindran, Dileepkumar

2017-04-01

The study aims at assessing the vulnerability and tradeoffs of dairy based livelihoods to Climate Variability and Change (CVC) in the Western Ghats ecosystem, India. For this purpose; data were aggregated to an overall Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to CVC underlying the principles of IPCC, using 40 indicators under 7 LVI components. Fussel framework was used for the nomenclature of vulnerable situation and trade-off between vulnerability components and milk production was calculated. Data were collected through participatory rural appraisal and personal interviews from 360 randomly selected dairy farmers of nine blocks from three states of Western Ghat region, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and livestock data. The LVI score of dairy based livelihoods of six taluks were negative. The data were normalized and then combined into three indices of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given using principal component analysis, to obtain the overall vulnerability index. Mann Whitney U test was used to find the significant difference between the taluks in terms of LVI and cumulative square root frequency method was used to categorise the farmers. Even though the taluks are geographically closer, there is significant difference in the LVI values of the regions. Results indicated that the Lanja taluks of Maharashtra is the most vulnerable having an overall LVI value -4.17 with 48% farmers falling in highly vulnerable category. Panel regression analysis reveals that there is significant synergy between average milk production and livestock, social network component and trade-off between natural disasters climate variability component of LVI. Policies for incentivizing the 'climate risk adaptation' costs for small and marginal farmers and livelihood infrastructure for mitigating risks and promoting grass root level innovations are necessary to sustain dairy farming of the region. Thus the research will

Are older people a vulnerable group? Philosophical and bioethical perspectives on ageing and vulnerability.

Science.gov (United States)

Bozzaro, Claudia; Boldt, Joachim; Schweda, Mark

2018-05-01

The elderly are often considered a vulnerable group in public and academic bioethical debates and regulations. In this paper, we examine and challenge this assumption and its ethical implications. We begin by systematically delineating the different concepts of vulnerability commonly used in bioethics, before then examining whether these concepts can be applied to old age. We argue that old age should not, in and of itself, be used as a marker of vulnerability, since ageing is a process that can develop in a variety of different ways and is not always associated with particular experiences of vulnerability. We, therefore, turn to more fundamental phenomenological considerations in order to reconstruct from a first person perspective the intricate interconnections between the experiences of ageing and vulnerability. According to this account, ageing and old age are phenomena in which the basic anthropological vulnerability of human beings can manifest itself in an increased likelihood of harm and exploitation. Thus, we plead for a combined model of vulnerability that helps to avoid problems related to the current concepts of vulnerability. We conclude first that old age as such is not a sufficient criterion for being categorized as vulnerable in applied ethics, and second that reflections on ageing can help to develop a better understanding of the central role of vulnerability in human existence and in applied ethics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing Heat Health Risk for Sustainability in Beijing’s Urban Heat Island

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weihua Dong

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This research is motivated by the increasing threat of urban heat waves that are likely worsened by pervasive global warming and urbanization. Different regions of the city including urban, borderland and rural area will experience different levels of heat health risk. In this paper, we propose an improved approach to quantitatively assess Beijing’s heat health risk based on three factors from hazard, vulnerability and especially environment which is considered as an independent factor because different land use/cover types have different influence on ambient air temperatures under the Urban Heat Island effect. The results show that the heat health risk of Beijing demonstrates a spatial-temporal pattern with higher risk in the urban area, lower risk in the borderland between urban and rural area, and lowest risk in the rural area, and the total risk fluctuated dramatically during 2008–2011. To be more specific, the heat health risk was clearly higher in 2009 and 2010 than in 2008 and 2011. Further analysis with the urban area at sub-district level signifies that the impervious surface (urban area such as buildings, roads, et al. ratio is of high correlation with the heat health risk. The validation results show that the proposed method improved the accuracy of heat health risk assessment. We recommend that policy makers should develop efficient urban planning to accomplish Beijing’s sustainable development.

Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation : climate information needs for energy managers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mirza, M. [Environment Canada, Fredericton, NB (Canada). Adaptation and Impacts Research Division

2007-07-01

The future potential of hydropower and the vulnerability of the energy sector in Canada and North America was discussed with particular reference to climate information needs for managers regarding vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. The presentation discussed power line climate design criteria as well as a case study of the 1998 ice storm. Power output at Niagara Falls and on the St. Lawrence River were presented. Fossil fuels, electricity, renewable energy, transmission and transportation, and extreme climate and energy were discussed. Charts were provided to depict the 2001 heat wave and power demand; a summary of climate scenario requirements; the mean electricity demand and mean temperature during 1994 to 2000 in Ontario; runoff sensitivity; and accumulated freezing rain and transmission lines during the January ice storm of 1998. A chart on sources of uncertainty was also provided with reference to measurement error; variability; model structure; and scaling and aggregation. tabs., figs.

Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation : climate information needs for energy managers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirza, M.

2007-01-01

The future potential of hydropower and the vulnerability of the energy sector in Canada and North America was discussed with particular reference to climate information needs for managers regarding vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. The presentation discussed power line climate design criteria as well as a case study of the 1998 ice storm. Power output at Niagara Falls and on the St. Lawrence River were presented. Fossil fuels, electricity, renewable energy, transmission and transportation, and extreme climate and energy were discussed. Charts were provided to depict the 2001 heat wave and power demand; a summary of climate scenario requirements; the mean electricity demand and mean temperature during 1994 to 2000 in Ontario; runoff sensitivity; and accumulated freezing rain and transmission lines during the January ice storm of 1998. A chart on sources of uncertainty was also provided with reference to measurement error; variability; model structure; and scaling and aggregation. tabs., figs

Environmental flows and life cycle assessment of associated petroleum gas utilization via combined heat and power plants and heat boilers at oil fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajović, Vuk; Kiss, Ferenc; Maravić, Nikola; Bera, Oskar

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Environmental impact of associated petroleum gas flaring is discussed. • A modern trend of introducing cogeneration systems to the oil fields is presented. • Three alternative utilization options evaluated with life cycle assessment method. • Producing electricity and/or heat instead of flaring would reduce impacts. - Abstract: Flaring of associated petroleum gas is a major resource waste and causes considerable emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. New environmental regulations are forcing oil industry to implement innovative and sustainable technologies in order to compete in growing energy market. A modern trend of introducing energy-effective cogeneration systems to the oil fields by replacing flaring and existing heat generation technologies powered by associated petroleum gas is discussed through material flow analysis and environmental impact assessment. The environmental assessment is based on the consequential life cycle assessment method and mainly primary data compiled directly from measurements on Serbian oil-fields or company-supplied information. The obtained results confirm that the utilization of associated petroleum gas via combined heat and power plants and heat boilers can provide a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and resource depletion by displacing marginal production of heat and electricity. At the base case scenario, which assumes a 100% heat realization rate, the global warming potential of the combined heat and power plant and heat boiler scenarios were estimated at −4.94 and −0.54 kg CO_2_e_q Sm"−"3, whereas the cumulative fossil energy requirements of these scenarios were −48.7 and −2.1 MJ Sm"−"3, respectively. This is a significant reduction compared to the global warming potential (2.25 kg CO_2_e_q Sm"−"3) and cumulative fossil energy requirements (35.36 MJ Sm"−"3) of flaring. Nevertheless, sensitivity analyses have shown that life cycle assessment results are sensitive

Spatially explicit assessment of heat health risk by using multi-sensor remote sensing images and socioeconomic data in Yangtze River Delta, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qian; Ding, Mingjun; Yang, Xuchao; Hu, Kejia; Qi, Jiaguo

2018-05-25

The increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, which are potentially associated with climate change in the near future, highlights the importance of heat health risk assessment, a significant reference for heat-related death reduction and intervention. However, a spatiotemporal mismatch exists between gridded heat hazard and human exposure in risk assessment, which hinders the identification of high-risk areas at finer scales. A human settlement index integrated by nighttime light images, enhanced vegetation index, and digital elevation model data was utilized to assess the human exposure at high spatial resolution. Heat hazard and vulnerability index were generated by land surface temperature and demographic and socioeconomic census data, respectively. Spatially explicit assessment of heat health risk and its driving factors was conducted in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), east China at 250 m pixel level. High-risk areas were mainly distributed in the urbanized areas of YRD, which were mostly driven by high human exposure and heat hazard index. In some less-urbanized cities and suburban and rural areas of mega-cities, the heat health risks are in second priority. The risks in some less-developed areas were high despite the low human exposure index because of high heat hazard and vulnerability index. This study illustrated a methodology for identifying high-risk areas by combining freely available multi-source data. Highly urbanized areas were considered hotspots of high heat health risks, which were largely driven by the increasing urban heat island effects and population density in urban areas. Repercussions of overheating were weakened due to the low social vulnerability in some central areas benefitting from the low proportion of sensitive population or the high level of socioeconomic development. By contrast, high social vulnerability intensifies heat health risks in some less-urbanized cities and suburban areas of mega-cities.

Self-similarity of high-pT hadron production in cumulative processes and violation of discrete symmetries at small scales (suggestion for experiment)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokarev, M.V.; Zborovsky, I.

2009-01-01

The hypothesis of self-similarity of hadron production in relativistic heavy ion collisions for search for phase transition in a nuclear matter is discussed. It is offered to use the established features of z-scaling for revealing signatures of new physics in cumulative region. It is noted that selection of events on centrality in cumulative region could help to localize a position of a critical point. Change of parameters of the theory (a specific heat and fractal dimensions) near to a critical point is considered as a signature of new physics. The relation of the power asymptotic of ψ(z) at high z, anisotropy of momentum space due to spontaneous symmetry breaking, and discrete (C, P, T) symmetries is emphasized

An evaluation paradigm for cumulative impact analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

1988-09-01

Cumulative impact analysis is examined from a conceptual decision-making perspective, focusing on its implicit and explicit purposes as suggested within the policy and procedures for environmental impact analysis of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and its implementing regulations. In this article it is also linked to different evaluation and decision-making conventions, contrasting a regulatory context with a comprehensive planning framework. The specific problems that make the application of cumulative impact analysis a virtually intractable evaluation requirement are discussed in connection with the federal regulation of wetlands uses. The relatively familiar US Army Corps of Engineers' (the Corps) permit program, in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) responsibilities in managing its share of the Section 404 regulatory program requirements, is used throughout as the realistic context for highlighting certain pragmatic evaluation aspects of cumulative impact assessment. To understand the purposes of cumulative impact analysis (CIA), a key distinction must be made between the implied comprehensive and multiobjective evaluation purposes of CIA, promoted through the principles and policies contained in NEPA, and the more commonly conducted and limited assessment of cumulative effects (ACE), which focuses largely on the ecological effects of human actions. Based on current evaluation practices within the Corps' and EPA's permit programs, it is shown that the commonly used screening approach to regulating wetlands uses is not compatible with the purposes of CIA, nor is the environmental impact statement (EIS) an appropriate vehicle for evaluating the variety of objectives and trade-offs needed as part of CIA. A heuristic model that incorporates the basic elements of CIA is developed, including the idea of trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental protection goals carried out within the context of environmental

Vulnerability of damage-accumulating systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lind, Niels C.

1996-01-01

Disastrous failures have shown that systems can be highly vulnerable. Quantified vulnerability can help designers and regulators to decide how much vulnerability is tolerable. Vulnerability of a system to a specified disturbance is defined as the ratio of the probability of failure of the disturbed system to the probability of failure of the undisturbed system. This vulnerability can be specialized to particular system types. It is adapted here to systems that are expected to deteriorate while in service due to processes such as fatigue, creep, corrosion, aging, neglect or insufficient maintenance. Application is illustrated by vulnerability to fatigue under constant and variable stress

Cumulants in perturbation expansions for non-equilibrium field theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fauser, R.

1995-11-01

The formulation of perturbation expansions for a quantum field theory of strongly interacting systems in a general non-equilibrium state is discussed. Non-vanishing initial correlations are included in the formulation of the perturbation expansion in terms of cumulants. The cumulants are shown to be the suitable candidate for summing up the perturbation expansion. Also a linked-cluster theorem for the perturbation series with cumulants is presented. Finally a generating functional of the perturbation series with initial correlations is studied. We apply the methods to a simple model of a fermion-boson system. (orig.)

Maintenance hemodialysis patients have high cumulative radiation exposure.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Kinsella, Sinead M

2010-10-01

Hemodialysis is associated with an increased risk of neoplasms which may result, at least in part, from exposure to ionizing radiation associated with frequent radiographic procedures. In order to estimate the average radiation exposure of those on hemodialysis, we conducted a retrospective study of 100 patients in a university-based dialysis unit followed for a median of 3.4 years. The number and type of radiological procedures were obtained from a central radiology database, and the cumulative effective radiation dose was calculated using standardized, procedure-specific radiation levels. The median annual radiation dose was 6.9 millisieverts (mSv) per patient-year. However, 14 patients had an annual cumulative effective radiation dose over 20 mSv, the upper averaged annual limit for occupational exposure. The median total cumulative effective radiation dose per patient over the study period was 21.7 mSv, in which 13 patients had a total cumulative effective radiation dose over 75 mSv, a value reported to be associated with a 7% increased risk of cancer-related mortality. Two-thirds of the total cumulative effective radiation dose was due to CT scanning. The average radiation exposure was significantly associated with the cause of end-stage renal disease, history of ischemic heart disease, transplant waitlist status, number of in-patient hospital days over follow-up, and death during the study period. These results highlight the substantial exposure to ionizing radiation in hemodialysis patients.

Component Cooling Heat Exchanger Heat Transfer Capability Operability Monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mihalina, M.; Djetelic, N.

2010-01-01

The ultimate heat sink (UHS) is of highest importance for nuclear power plant safe and reliable operation. The most important component in line from safety-related heat sources to the ultimate heat sink water body is a component cooling heat exchanger (CC Heat Exchanger). The Component Cooling Heat Exchanger has a safety-related function to transfer the heat from the Component Cooling (CC) water system to the Service Water (SW) system. SW systems throughout the world have been the root of many plant problems because the water source, usually river, lake, sea or cooling pond, are conductive to corrosion, erosion, biofouling, debris intrusion, silt, sediment deposits, etc. At Krsko NPP, these problems usually cumulate in the summer period from July to August, with higher Sava River (service water system) temperatures. Therefore it was necessary to continuously evaluate the CC Heat Exchanger operation and confirm that the system would perform its intended function in accordance with the plant's design basis, given as a minimum heat transfer rate in the heat exchanger design specification sheet. The Essential Service Water system at Krsko NPP is an open cycle cooling system which transfers heat from safety and non-safety-related systems and components to the ultimate heat sink the Sava River. The system is continuously in operation in all modes of plant operation, including plant shutdown and refueling. However, due to the Sava River impurities and our limited abilities of the water treatment, the system is subject to fouling, sedimentation buildup, corrosion and scale formation, which could negatively impact its performance being unable to satisfy its safety related post accident heat removal function. Low temperature difference and high fluid flows make it difficult to evaluate the CC Heat Exchanger due to its specific design. The important effects noted are measurement uncertainties, nonspecific construction, high heat transfer capacity, and operational specifics (e

CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

Science.gov (United States)

Bowerman, P. N.

1994-01-01

The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

The emerging threats of climate change on tropical coastal ecosystem services, public health, local economies and livelihood sustainability of small islands: Cumulative impacts and synergies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández-Delgado, E A

2015-12-15

Climate change has significantly impacted tropical ecosystems critical for sustaining local economies and community livelihoods at global scales. Coastal ecosystems have largely declined, threatening the principal source of protein, building materials, tourism-based revenue, and the first line of defense against storm swells and sea level rise (SLR) for small tropical islands. Climate change has also impacted public health (i.e., altered distribution and increased prevalence of allergies, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases). Rapid human population growth has exacerbated pressure over coupled social-ecological systems, with concomitant non-sustainable impacts on natural resources, water availability, food security and sovereignty, public health, and quality of life, which should increase vulnerability and erode adaptation and mitigation capacity. This paper examines cumulative and synergistic impacts of climate change in the challenging context of highly vulnerable small tropical islands. Multiple adaptive strategies of coupled social-ecological ecosystems are discussed. Multi-level, multi-sectorial responses are necessary for adaptation to be successful. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mangrove vulnerability index using GIS

Science.gov (United States)

Yunus, Mohd Zulkifli Mohd; Ahmad, Fatimah Shafinaz; Ibrahim, Nuremira

2018-02-01

Climate change, particularly its associated sea level rise, is major threat to mangrove coastal areas, and it is essential to develop ways to reduce vulnerability through strategic management planning. Environmental vulnerability can be understood as a function of exposure to impacts and the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of ecological systems towards environmental tensors. Mangrove vulnerability ranking using up to 14 parameters found in study area, which is in Pulau Kukup and Sg Pulai, where 1 is low vulnerability and 5 is very high vulnerability. Mangrove Vulnerability Index (MVI) is divided into 3 main categories Physical Mangrove Index (PMI), Biological Mangrove Index (BMI) and Hazard Mangrove Index (HMI).

Automated Software Vulnerability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Sezer, Emre C.; Kil, Chongkyung; Ning, Peng

Despite decades of research, software continues to have vulnerabilities. Successful exploitations of these vulnerabilities by attackers cost millions of dollars to businesses and individuals. Unfortunately, most effective defensive measures, such as patching and intrusion prevention systems, require an intimate knowledge of the vulnerabilities. Many systems for detecting attacks have been proposed. However, the analysis of the exploited vulnerabilities is left to security experts and programmers. Both the human effortinvolved and the slow analysis process are unfavorable for timely defensive measure to be deployed. The problem is exacerbated by zero-day attacks.

Cumulative effect in multiple production processes on nuclei

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Golubyatnikova, E.S.; Shmonin, V.L.; Kalinkin, B.N.

1989-01-01

It is shown that the cumulative effect is a natural result of the process of hadron multiple production in nuclear reactions. Interpretation is made of the universality of slopes of inclusive spectra and other characteristics of cumulative hadrons. The character of information from such reactions is discussed, which could be helpful in studying the mechanism of multiparticle production. 27 refs.; 4 figs

What Does Vulnerability Mean?

Science.gov (United States)

Parley, Fiona F

2011-01-01

Protection of those deemed vulnerable has received increasing attention since 2000. This article reports on care staff views of vulnerability using original data from a research study (Parley. "Vulnerability and abuse: an exploration of views of care staff working with people who have learning disabilities," PhD Thesis, 2007) in which care staff…

Redistributing vulnerabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seeberg, Jens; Padmawati, Retna Siwi

2015-01-01

It is widely accepted that the social distribution of vulnerability in a given society may turn hazardous events into disasters. This distributional approach draws attention to continuities that explain catastrophes by virtue of the workings of society prior to the event. In this paper, we draw...... attention to the social processes whereby vulnerability is modified and renegotiated during the post-disaster period where resources for disaster alleviation and reconstruction enter local communities. Specifically, we explore the social dynamics of house damage classification in the wake of the 2006...... Central Java earthquake, and we explore relations between citizens and the state during post-disaster house reconstruction. We argue that disastrous outcomes of catastrophic events do not follow pre-existing fault lines of vulnerability in a simple or predictable manner, and that the social process...

Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

Modelling farm vulnerability to flooding: A step toward vulnerability mitigation policies appraisal

Science.gov (United States)

Brémond, P.; Abrami, G.; Blanc, C.; Grelot, F.

2009-04-01

Recent catastrophic flood events such as Elbe in 2002 or Rhône in 2003 have shown limits of flood management policies relying on dykes protection: worsening of flood impacts downstream, increased damage by dykes rupture. Those events, among others, contributes to radical changes on the philosophy of flood prevention, with the promotion of new orientations for mitigating flood exposition. Two new trends may have a significant impact on rural areas: floodplain restoration and vulnerability mitigation. The Rhône River program, which is an contract of objectives signed between French Government and local collectivites, is highly illustrative of these new trends and their impact on agricultural sector. In this program, it appears that areas to be concerned by floodplain restoration are agricultural ones, because their supposed vulnerability to flood is expected to be less important to urban areas. As a consequence, agricultural sector is particularly concerned by planned actions on mitigation of assets vulnerability, an important part of the program (financial support of European Union of 7.5 Million euros). Mitigation of agricultural assets vulnerability reveals particularly interesting for two following reasons. Firstly, it is a way to maintain agricultural activities in floodplains yet existing, without promoting flood protection. Secondly, in case of floodplain restoration, vulnerability mitigation is a way for local authorities to compensate over-flooding impacts. In practice, local authorities may financially support farmers for implementing measures to mitigate their farm vulnerability. On the Rhône River, an important work has already been done to identify farm vulnerability to flooding, and propose measures to mitigate it. More than 3 000 farms exposed to flood risk have been identified representing 88 690 ha of agricultural areas which is estimated to generate damage between 400 and 800 Million euros depending on the season of occurrence for a catastrophic

Developing effective communication materials on the health effects of climate change for vulnerable groups: a mixed methods study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer M. Kreslake

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Individuals with chronic health conditions or low socioeconomic status (SES are more vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. Health communication can provide information on the management of these impacts. This study tested, among vulnerable audiences, whether viewing targeted materials increases knowledge about the health impacts of climate change and strength of climate change beliefs, and whether each are associated with stronger intentions to practice recommended behaviors. Methods Low-SES respondents with chronic conditions were recruited for an online survey in six cities. Respondents were shown targeted materials illustrating the relationship between climate change and chronic conditions. Changes in knowledge and climate change beliefs (pre- and post-test and behavioral intentions (post-test only were tested using McNemar tests of marginal frequencies of two binary outcomes or paired t-tests, and multivariable linear regression. Qualitative interviews were conducted among target audiences to triangulate survey findings and make recommendations on the design of messages. Results Respondents (N = 122 reflected the target population regarding income, educational level and prevalence of household health conditions. (1 Knowledge. Significant increases in knowledge were found regarding: groups that are most vulnerable to heat (children [p < 0.001], individuals with heart disease [p < 0.001], or lung disease [p = 0.019]; and environmental conditions that increase allergy-producing pollen (increased heat [p = 0.003], increased carbon dioxide [p < 0.001]. (2 Strength of certainty that climate change is happening increased significantly between pre- and post-test (p < 0.001, as did belief that climate change affected respondents’ health (p < 0.001. (3 Behavioral intention. At post-test, higher knowledge of heat vulnerabilities and environmental conditions that trigger pollen

A Framework for Treating Cumulative Trauma with Art Therapy

Science.gov (United States)

Naff, Kristina

2014-01-01

Cumulative trauma is relatively undocumented in art therapy practice, although there is growing evidence that art therapy provides distinct benefits for resolving various traumas. This qualitative study proposes an art therapy treatment framework for cumulative trauma derived from semi-structured interviews with three art therapists and artistic…

Vulnerability studies and integrated assessments for hazard risk reduction in Pittsburgh, PA (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Klima, K.

2013-12-01

Today's environmental problems stretch beyond the bounds of most academic disciplines, and thus solutions require an interdisciplinary approach. For instance, the scientific consensus is changes in the frequency and severity of many types of extreme weather events are increasing (IPCC 2012). Yet despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, we continue to experience severe weather events such as Superstorm Sandy, record heat and blizzards, and droughts. These natural hazards, combined with increased vulnerability and exposure, result in longer-lasting disruptions to critical infrastructure and business continuity throughout the world. In order to protect both our lives and the economy, we must think beyond the bounds of any one discipline to include an integrated assessment of relevant work. In the wake of recent events, New York City, Washington, DC, Chicago, and a myriad of other cities have turned to their academic powerhouses for assistance in better understanding their vulnerabilities. This talk will share a case study of the state of integrated assessments and vulnerability studies of energy, transportation, water, real estate, and other main sectors in Pittsburgh, PA. Then the talk will use integrated assessment models and other vulnerability studies to create coordinated sets of climate projections for use by the many public agencies and private-sector organizations in the region.

Poverty and Vulnerability - An Interdisciplinary Approach

OpenAIRE

Makoka, Donald; Kaplan, Marcus

2005-01-01

This paper describes the concepts of poverty and vulnerability as well as the interconnections and differences between them using an interdisciplinary approach. While poverty is a static concept, vulnerability has a forward-looking dimension. We, therefore, review the methodologies that different disciplines use to measure poverty and vulnerability. In particular, the differences between vulnerability to natural disasters, vulnerability to climate change, as well as vulnerability to poverty a...

Vulnerability of complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Mishkovski, Igor; Biey, Mario; Kocarev, Ljupco

2011-01-01

We consider normalized average edge betweenness of a network as a metric of network vulnerability. We suggest that normalized average edge betweenness together with is relative difference when certain number of nodes and/or edges are removed from the network is a measure of network vulnerability, called vulnerability index. Vulnerability index is calculated for four synthetic networks: Erdős-Rényi (ER) random networks, Barabási-Albert (BA) model of scale-free networks, Watts-Strogatz (WS) model of small-world networks, and geometric random networks. Real-world networks for which vulnerability index is calculated include: two human brain networks, three urban networks, one collaboration network, and two power grid networks. We find that WS model of small-world networks and biological networks (human brain networks) are the most robust networks among all networks studied in the paper.

Cumulative Environmental Impacts: Science and Policy to Protect Communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Solomon, Gina M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Zeise, Lauren; Faust, John B

2016-01-01

Many communities are located near multiple sources of pollution, including current and former industrial sites, major roadways, and agricultural operations. Populations in such locations are predominantly low-income, with a large percentage of minorities and non-English speakers. These communities face challenges that can affect the health of their residents, including limited access to health care, a shortage of grocery stores, poor housing quality, and a lack of parks and open spaces. Environmental exposures may interact with social stressors, thereby worsening health outcomes. Age, genetic characteristics, and preexisting health conditions increase the risk of adverse health effects from exposure to pollutants. There are existing approaches for characterizing cumulative exposures, cumulative risks, and cumulative health impacts. Although such approaches have merit, they also have significant constraints. New developments in exposure monitoring, mapping, toxicology, and epidemiology, especially when informed by community participation, have the potential to advance the science on cumulative impacts and to improve decision making.

The cumulative burden of surviving childhood cancer: an initial report from the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (SJLIFE).

Science.gov (United States)

Bhakta, Nickhill; Liu, Qi; Ness, Kirsten K; Baassiri, Malek; Eissa, Hesham; Yeo, Frederick; Chemaitilly, Wassim; Ehrhardt, Matthew J; Bass, Johnnie; Bishop, Michael W; Shelton, Kyla; Lu, Lu; Huang, Sujuan; Li, Zhenghong; Caron, Eric; Lanctot, Jennifer; Howell, Carrie; Folse, Timothy; Joshi, Vijaya; Green, Daniel M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Armstrong, Gregory T; Krull, Kevin R; Brinkman, Tara M; Khan, Raja B; Srivastava, Deo K; Hudson, Melissa M; Yasui, Yutaka; Robison, Leslie L

2017-12-09

·9-2·7, pgrade 1-5 CHCs at age 50 years was highest in survivors of CNS malignancies (24·2 [95% CI 20·9-27·5]) and lowest in survivors of germ cell tumours (14·0 [11·5-16·6]). Multivariable analyses showed that older age at diagnosis, treatment era, and higher doses of brain and chest radiation are significantly associated with a greater cumulative burden and severity of CHCs. The burden of CHCs in survivors of childhood cancer is substantial and highly variable. Our assessment of total cumulative burden in survivors of paediatric cancer, with detailed characterisation of long-term CHCs, provide data to better inform future clinical guidelines, research investigations, and health services planning for this vulnerable, medically complex population. The US National Cancer Institute, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Baltic Sea biodiversity status vs. cumulative human pressures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jesper H.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Korpinen, Samuli

2015-01-01

Abstract Many studies have tried to explain spatial and temporal variations in biodiversity status of marine areas from a single-issue perspective, such as fishing pressure or coastal pollution, yet most continental seas experience a wide range of human pressures. Cumulative impact assessments have...... been developed to capture the consequences of multiple stressors for biodiversity, but the ability of these assessments to accurately predict biodiversity status has never been tested or ground-truthed. This relationship has similarly been assumed for the Baltic Sea, especially in areas with impaired...... status, but has also never been documented. Here we provide a first tentative indication that cumulative human impacts relate to ecosystem condition, i.e. biodiversity status, in the Baltic Sea. Thus, cumulative impact assessments offer a promising tool for informed marine spatial planning, designation...

Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

2011-12-01

In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

Cumulative query method for influenza surveillance using search engine data.

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Dong-Woo; Jo, Min-Woo; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Shin, Soo-Yong; Lee, JaeHo; Yu, Maengsoo; Kim, Won Young; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Lee, Sang-Il

2014-12-16

Internet search queries have become an important data source in syndromic surveillance system. However, there is currently no syndromic surveillance system using Internet search query data in South Korea. The objective of this study was to examine correlations between our cumulative query method and national influenza surveillance data. Our study was based on the local search engine, Daum (approximately 25% market share), and influenza-like illness (ILI) data from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A quota sampling survey was conducted with 200 participants to obtain popular queries. We divided the study period into two sets: Set 1 (the 2009/10 epidemiological year for development set 1 and 2010/11 for validation set 1) and Set 2 (2010/11 for development Set 2 and 2011/12 for validation Set 2). Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated between the Daum data and the ILI data for the development set. We selected the combined queries for which the correlation coefficients were .7 or higher and listed them in descending order. Then, we created a cumulative query method n representing the number of cumulative combined queries in descending order of the correlation coefficient. In validation set 1, 13 cumulative query methods were applied, and 8 had higher correlation coefficients (min=.916, max=.943) than that of the highest single combined query. Further, 11 of 13 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 4 of 13 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. In validation set 2, 8 of 15 cumulative query methods showed higher correlation coefficients (min=.975, max=.987) than that of the highest single combined query. All 15 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 6 of 15 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. Cumulative query method showed relatively higher correlation with national influenza surveillance data than combined queries in the development and validation set.

Young-Adult Male Rats’ Vulnerability to Chronic Mild Stress Is Reflected by Anxious-Like instead of Depressive-Like Behaviors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Herrera-Pérez José Jaime

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In a previous study, we found that chronic mild stress (CMS paradigm did not induce anhedonia in young-adult male rats but it reduced their body weight gain. These contrasting results encouraged us to explore other indicators of animal’s vulnerability to stress such as anxious-like behaviors, since stress is an etiologic factor also for anxiety. Thus, in this study, we evaluated the vulnerability of these animals to CMS using behavioral tests of depression or anxiety and measuring serum corticosterone. Male Wistar rats were exposed to four weeks of CMS; the animals’ body weight and sucrose preference (indicator of anhedonia were assessed after three weeks, and, after the fourth week, some animals were evaluated in a behavioral battery (elevated plus maze, defensive burying behavior, and forced swimming tests; meanwhile, others were used to measure serum corticosterone. We found that CMS (1 did not affect sucrose preference, immobility behavior in the forced swimming test, or serum corticosterone; (2 decreased body weight gain; and (3 increased the rat’s entries into closed arms of the plus maze and the cumulative burying behavior. These data indicate that young male rats’ vulnerability to CMS is reflected as poor body weight gain and anxious-like instead of depressive-like behaviors.

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Foley, Melissa M., E-mail: mfoley@usgs.gov [U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, 400 Natural Bridges, Dr., Santa Cruz, CA 95060 (United States); Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 99 Pacific St., Monterey, CA 93940 (United States); Mease, Lindley A., E-mail: lamease@stanford.edu [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Martone, Rebecca G., E-mail: rmartone@stanford.edu [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 99 Pacific St., Monterey, CA 93940 (United States); Prahler, Erin E. [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Morrison, Tiffany H., E-mail: tiffany.morrison@jcu.edu.au [ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811 (Australia); Murray, Cathryn Clarke, E-mail: cmurray@pices.int [WWF-Canada, 409 Granville Street, Suite 1588, Vancouver, BC V6C 1T2 (Canada); Wojcik, Deborah, E-mail: deb.wojcik@duke.edu [Nicholas School for the Environment, Duke University, 9 Circuit Dr., Durham, NC 27708 (United States)

2017-01-15

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Prahler, Erin E.; Morrison, Tiffany H.; Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Wojcik, Deborah

2017-01-01

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A; Martone, Rebecca G; Prahler, Erin E; Morrison, Tiffany H; Clarke Murray, Cathryn; Wojcik, Deborah

2016-01-01

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

Managing regional cumulative effects of oil sands development in Alberta, Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spaling, H.; Zwier, J.

2000-01-01

This paper demonstrates an approach to regional cumulative effects management using the case of oil sands development in Alberta, Canada. The 17 existing, approved, or planned projects, all concentrated in a relatively small region, pose significant challenges for conducting and reviewing cumulative effects assessment (CEA) on a project-by-project basis. In response, stakeholders have initiated a regional cumulative effects management system that is among the first such initiatives anywhere. Advantages of this system include (1) more efficient gathering and sharing of information, including a common regional database, (2) setting acceptable regional environmental thresholds for all projects, (3) collaborative assessment of similar cumulative effects from related projects, (4) co-ordinated regulatory review and approval process for overlapping CEAs, and (5) institutional empowerment from a Regional Sustainable Development Strategy administered by a public authority. This case provides a model for integrating project-based CEA with regional management of cumulative effects. (author)

Variation in adult stress resistance does not explain vulnerability to climate change in copper butterflies.

Science.gov (United States)

Klockmann, Michael; Wallmeyer, Leonard; Fischer, Klaus

2017-03-15

Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. However, although many species clearly suffer from ongoing climate change, others benefit from it, for example, by showing range expansions. However, which specific features determine a species' vulnerability to climate change? Phenotypic plasticity, which has been described as the first line of defence against environmental change, may be of utmost importance here. Against this background, we here compare plasticity in stress tolerance in 3 copper butterfly species, which differ arguably in their vulnerability to climate change. Specifically, we investigated heat, cold and desiccation resistance after acclimatization to different temperatures in the adult stage. We demonstrate that acclimation at a higher temperature increased heat but decreased cold tolerance and desiccation resistance. Contrary to our predictions, species did not show pronounced variation in stress resistance, though plastic capacities in temperature stress resistance did vary across species. Overall, our results seemed to reflect population-rather than species-specific patterns. We conclude that the geographical origin of the populations used should be considered even in comparative studies. However, our results suggest that, in the 3 species studied here, vulnerability to climate change is not in the first place determined by stress resistance in the adult stage. As entomological studies focus all too often on adults only, we argue that more research effort should be dedicated to other developmental stages when trying to understand insect responses to environmental change. © 2017 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Acclimatization to extreme heat

Science.gov (United States)

Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

2017-12-01

Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

PORT SECURITY-Threats and Vulnerabilities

OpenAIRE

Kusi, Bernard

2015-01-01

The main objective of this thesis is to identify the threats and the vulnerabilities concerning Takoradi port, and finally recommend measure to overcome the identified threats and vul-nerabilities. Various categories of potential threats and vulnerabilities have been studied throughout the literature review. However, because each port presents a unique sets of threats and vulnerabilities, there was a need to look critically into how Takoradi port operations are being conducted in other to ide...

The effects of cumulative practice on mathematics problem solving.

Science.gov (United States)

Mayfield, Kristin H; Chase, Philip N

2002-01-01

This study compared three different methods of teaching five basic algebra rules to college students. All methods used the same procedures to teach the rules and included four 50-question review sessions interspersed among the training of the individual rules. The differences among methods involved the kinds of practice provided during the four review sessions. Participants who received cumulative practice answered 50 questions covering a mix of the rules learned prior to each review session. Participants who received a simple review answered 50 questions on one previously trained rule. Participants who received extra practice answered 50 extra questions on the rule they had just learned. Tests administered after each review included new questions for applying each rule (application items) and problems that required novel combinations of the rules (problem-solving items). On the final test, the cumulative group outscored the other groups on application and problem-solving items. In addition, the cumulative group solved the problem-solving items significantly faster than the other groups. These results suggest that cumulative practice of component skills is an effective method of training problem solving.

Determination of susceptibility to heat-related disorders and prevention methods among agriculture workers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2012-01-01

Conclusion: According to the results, agriculture workers based on their age distribution, education, body mass index, health knowledge, drug use and incidence of chronic diseases, are very vulnerable to heat-related disorders. Therefore, training on recognizing the early signs and doing control measures as essential element in heat stress prevention should be seriously considered.

Social vulnerability from a social ecology perspective: a cohort study of older adults from the National Population Health Survey of Canada

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Numerous social factors, generally studied in isolation, have been associated with older adults’ health. Even so, older people’s social circumstances are complex and an approach which embraces this complexity is desirable. Here we investigate many social factors in relation to one another and to survival among older adults using a social ecology perspective to measure social vulnerability among older adults. Methods 2740 adults aged 65 and older were followed for ten years in the Canadian National Population Health Survey (NPHS). Twenty-three individual-level social variables were drawn from the 1994 NPHS and five Enumeration Area (EA)-level variables were abstracted from the 1996 Canadian Census using postal code linkage. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to identify dimensions of social vulnerability. All social variables were summed to create a social vulnerability index which was studied in relation to ten-year mortality. Results The PCA was limited by low variance (47%) explained by emergent factors. Seven dimensions of social vulnerability emerged in the most robust, yet limited, model: social support, engagement, living situation, self-esteem, sense of control, relations with others and contextual socio-economic status. These dimensions showed complex inter-relationships and were situated within a social ecology framework, considering spheres of influence from the individual through to group, neighbourhood and broader societal levels. Adjusting for age, sex, and frailty, increasing social vulnerability measured using the cumulative social vulnerability index was associated with increased risk of mortality over ten years in a Cox regression model (HR 1.04, 95% CI:1.01-1.07, p = 0.01). Conclusions Social vulnerability has important independent influence on older adults’ health though relationships between contributing variables are complex and do not lend themselves well to fragmentation into a small number of discrete factors. A

Super-Resolution Algorithm in Cumulative Virtual Blanking

Science.gov (United States)

Montillet, J. P.; Meng, X.; Roberts, G. W.; Woolfson, M. S.

2008-11-01

The proliferation of mobile devices and the emergence of wireless location-based services have generated consumer demand for precise location. In this paper, the MUSIC super-resolution algorithm is applied to time delay estimation for positioning purposes in cellular networks. The goal is to position a Mobile Station with UMTS technology. The problem of Base-Stations herability is solved using Cumulative Virtual Blanking. A simple simulator is presented using DS-SS signal. The results show that MUSIC algorithm improves the time delay estimation in both the cases whether or not Cumulative Virtual Blanking was carried out.

Analysis of LDPE-ZnO-clay nanocomposites using novel cumulative rheological parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Kracalik, Milan

2017-05-01

Polymer nanocomposites exhibit complex rheological behaviour due to physical and also possibly chemical interactions between individual phases. Up to now, rheology of dispersive polymer systems has been usually described by evaluation of viscosity curve (shear thinning phenomenon), storage modulus curve (formation of secondary plateau) or plotting information about dumping behaviour (e.g. Van Gurp-Palmen-plot, comparison of loss factor tan δ). On the contrary to evaluation of damping behaviour, values of cot δ were calculated and called as "storage factor", analogically to loss factor. Then values of storage factor were integrated over specific frequency range and called as "cumulative storage factor". In this contribution, LDPE-ZnO-clay nanocomposites with different dispersion grades (physical networks) have been prepared and characterized by both conventional as well as novel analysis approach. Next to cumulative storage factor, further cumulative rheological parameters like cumulative complex viscosity, cumulative complex modulus or cumulative storage modulus have been introduced.

Expansion formulae for characteristics of cumulative cost in finite horizon production models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ayhan, H.; Schlegel, S.

2001-01-01

We consider the expected value and the tail probability of cumulative shortage and holding cost (i.e. the probability that cumulative cost is more than a certain value) in finite horizon production models. An exact expression is provided for the expected value of the cumulative cost for general

Cumulative Trauma Among Mayas Living in Southeast Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

Millender, Eugenia I; Lowe, John

2017-06-01

Mayas, having experienced genocide, exile, and severe poverty, are at high risk for the consequences of cumulative trauma that continually resurfaces through current fear of an uncertain future. Little is known about the mental health and alcohol use status of this population. This correlational study explored t/he relationship of cumulative trauma as it relates to social determinants of health (years in the United States, education, health insurance status, marital status, and employment), psychological health (depression symptoms), and health behaviors (alcohol use) of 102 Guatemalan Mayas living in Southeast Florida. The results of this study indicated that, as specific social determinants of health and cumulative trauma increased, depression symptoms (particularly among women) and the risk for harmful alcohol use (particularly among men) increased. Identifying risk factors at an early stage before serious disease or problems are manifest provides room for early screening leading to early identification, early treatment, and better outcomes.

Energy vulnerability relationships

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shaw, B.R.; Boesen, J.L.

1998-02-01

The US consumption of crude oil resources has been a steadily growing indicator of the vitality and strength of the US economy. At the same time import diversity has also been a rapidly developing dimension of the import picture. In the early 1970`s, embargoes of crude oil from Organization of Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) created economic and political havoc due to a significant lack of diversity and a unique set of economic, political and domestic regulatory circumstances. The continued rise of imports has again led to concerns over the security of our crude oil resource but threats to this system must be considered in light of the diversity and current setting of imported oil. This report develops several important issues concerning vulnerability to the disruption of oil imports: (1) The Middle East is not the major supplier of oil to the United States, (2) The US is not vulnerable to having its entire import stream disrupted, (3) Even in stable countries, there exist vulnerabilities to disruption of the export stream of oil, (4) Vulnerability reduction requires a focus on international solutions, and (5) DOE program and policy development must reflect the requirements of the diverse supply. Does this increasing proportion of imported oil create a {open_quotes}dependence{close_quotes}? Does this increasing proportion of imported oil present a vulnerability to {open_quotes}price shocks{close_quotes} and the tremendous dislocations experienced during the 1970`s? Finally, what is the vulnerability of supply disruptions from the current sources of imported oil? If oil is considered to be a finite, rapidly depleting resource, then the answers to these questions must be {open_quotes}yes.{close_quotes} However, if the supply of oil is expanding, and not limited, then dependence is relative to regional supply sources.

Distributed lag effects and vulnerable groups of floods on bacillary dysentery in Huaihua, China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhi-Dong; Li, Jing; Zhang, Ying; Ding, Guo-Yong; Xu, Xin; Gao, Lu; Liu, Xue-Na; Liu, Qi-Yong; Jiang, Bao-Fa

2016-01-01

Understanding the potential links between floods and bacillary dysentery in China is important to develop appropriate intervention programs after floods. This study aimed to explore the distributed lag effects of floods on bacillary dysentery and to identify the vulnerable groups in Huaihua, China. Weekly number of bacillary dysentery cases from 2005–2011 were obtained during flood season. Flood data and meteorological data over the same period were obtained from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. To examine the distributed lag effects, a generalized linear mixed model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model were developed to assess the relationship between floods and bacillary dysentery. A total of 3,709 cases of bacillary dysentery were notified over the study period. The effects of floods on bacillary dysentery continued for approximately 3 weeks with a cumulative risk ratio equal to 1.52 (95% CI: 1.08–2.12). The risks of bacillary dysentery were higher in females, farmers and people aged 15–64 years old. This study suggests floods have increased the risk of bacillary dysentery with 3 weeks’ effects, especially for the vulnerable groups identified. Public health programs should be taken to prevent and control a potential risk of bacillary dysentery after floods. PMID:27427387

Study on the simulation time increments for solar DHW heating systems; Taiyonetsu kyuto simulation ni okeru keisan jikan kankaku no kento

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sato, M; Udagawa, M [Kogakuin University, Tokyo (Japan)

1997-11-25

Calculation time intervals effective in simulating solar DHW systems were discussed, taking into account water temperature in a heat storage tank and calorific power in supplied hot water. The discussion was given on a direct heat collecting system in which heat passes through a heat collector from the bottom of the heat storage tank and returns to the center of the tank, and an indirect heat collecting system which has a heat exchanger built inside the heat storage tank at its bottom. The calculation was performed with time intervals of one to sixty minutes and five to forty-five layer divisions. The following results were obtained: because the calorific power of the hot water supplied is underestimated in the calculation if the calorific power of one hot water supply is extremely large, the calculation time intervals must be reduced to 1 to 15 minutes; cumulative calorific power of the hot water supply was found to show little variation if the number of division is greater than fifteen; and the daily cumulative effective heat collection amount shows very little variation due to the calculation time intervals, but errors from the measured value have decreased as the smaller the number of layer division in the direct heat collecting system, and as the greater the number of division in the indirect heat collecting system. 4 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs.

Memory Vulnerability Diagnosis for Binary Program

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tang Feng-Yi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Vulnerability diagnosis is important for program security analysis. It is a further step to understand the vulnerability after it is detected, as well as a preparatory step for vulnerability repair or exploitation. This paper mainly analyses the inner theories of major memory vulnerabilities and the threats of them. And then suggests some methods to diagnose several types of memory vulnerabilities for the binary programs, which is a difficult task due to the lack of source code. The diagnosis methods target at buffer overflow, use after free (UAF and format string vulnerabilities. We carried out some tests on the Linux platform to validate the effectiveness of the diagnosis methods. It is proved that the methods can judge the type of the vulnerability given a binary program.

Structural integrity assessment of intermediate heat exchanger in the HTTR. Based on results of rise-to-power test

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Takeda, Takeshi; Tachibana, Yukio; Nakagawa, Shigeaki [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Oarai, Ibaraki (Japan). Oarai Research Establishment

2002-12-01

A helium/helium intermediate heat exchanger (IHX) in the high temperature engineering test reactor (HTTR) is an essential component for demonstration of future nuclear process heat utilization of high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). The IHX with a heat capacity of 10 MW has 96 helically-coiled heat transfer tubes. Structural design for the IHX had been conducted through elastic-creep analysis of superalloy Hastelloy XR components such as heat transfer tubes and center pipe. In the HTTR rise-to-power test, it was clarified that temperature of the coolant in the IHX at the reactor scrams changes more rapidly than expected in the design. Effects of the IHX coolant temperature change, at anticipated reactor scram from the full power of 30 MW at high temperature test operation, on structural integrity of the heat transfer tubes and the lower reducer of the center pipe were investigated analytically based on the coolant temperature data obtained from the rise-to-power test. As results of the assessment, it was confirmed that cumulative principal creep strain, cumulative creep and fatigue damage factor of the IHX components during 10{sup 5} h of the HTTR lifetime should be below the allowable limits, which are established in the high-temperature structural design code for the HTGR Class 1 components. (author)

Developing an In-depth Understanding of Elderly Adult's Vulnerability to Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Rhoades, Jason L; Gruber, James S; Horton, Bill

2018-05-08

Recent reports highlight the vulnerability of elderly adults to climate change, yet limited research has focused on this topic. To address this, the purpose of this study was to develop an in-depth understanding of elderly adult's vulnerability to climate change within the context of a specific community. A case study methodology utilizing a community-based action research approach was employed to engage elderly participants living in Bridgeport, CT, in exploring their vulnerability to current and predicted climate stressors with a focus on extreme heat, flooding and storms, and air pollution. This research identifies personal characteristics that interact with contextual factors to influence elderly adult's vulnerability to climate change. Personal characteristics include health, economic, and social considerations. Contextual factors include the adequacy of emergency preparedness measures, transportation resources, and coping and recovery resources. As a result of the interplay of these characteristics and factors, predicted climate changes could have serious consequences for Bridgeport's elderly adults. This research provides a contextualized and detailed illustration of how climate change could overwhelm elderly adult's adaptive capacity and highlights the need for support services to provide safeguards. The issues and concerns raised may bear similarities to other locations, especially urban settings facing similar climate stressors with similar socioeconomic conditions. The findings suggest a need for further research to improve our understanding and serve as the basis for collaborative adaptation planning that engages elderly communities with local governments and a broad coalition of partners to keep elders safe.

On the use of wearable physiological monitors to assess heat strain during occupational heat stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Notley, Sean R; Flouris, Andreas D; Kenny, Glen P

2018-05-04

Workers in many industries are required to perform arduous work in high heat stress conditions, which can lead to rapid increases in body temperature that elevate the risk of heat-related illness or even death. Traditionally, effort to mitigate work-related heat injury has been directed to the assessment of environmental heat stress (e.g., wet-bulb globe temperature), rather than the associated physiological strain responses (e.g., heart rate, skin and core temperatures). However, since a workers physiological response to a given heat stress is modified independently by inter-individual factors (e.g., age, sex, chronic disease, others) and intra-individual factors both within (e.g., medication use, fitness, acclimation and hydration state, others) and beyond a workers control (e.g., shift duration, illness, others), it becomes challenging to protect workers on an individual basis from heat-related injury without assessing those physiological responses. Recent advancements in wearable technology have made it possible to monitor one or more physiological indices of heat strain. Nonetheless, information on the utility of the wearable systems available for assessing occupational heat strain is unavailable. This communication is therefore directed at identifying the physiological indices of heat strain that may be quantified in the workplace and evaluating the wearable monitoring systems available for assessing those responses. Finally, emphasis is directed to the barriers associated with implementing these devices to assist in mitigating work-related heat injury. This information is fundamental for protecting worker health and could also be utilized to prevent heat illnesses in vulnerable people during leisure or athletic activities in the heat.

Cumulative effects of wind turbines. Volume 3: Report on results of consultations on cumulative effects of wind turbines on birds

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-07-01

This report gives details of the consultations held in developing the consensus approach taken in assessing the cumulative effects of wind turbines. Contributions on bird issues, and views of stakeholders, the Countryside Council for Wales, electric utilities, Scottish Natural Heritage, and the National Wind Power Association are reported. The scoping of key species groups, where cumulative effects might be expected, consideration of other developments, the significance of any adverse effects, mitigation, regional capacity assessments, and predictive models are discussed. Topics considered at two stakeholder workshops are outlined in the appendices.

Higher order cumulants in colorless partonic plasma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cherif, S. [Sciences and Technologies Department, University of Ghardaia, Ghardaia, Algiers (Algeria); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M. A. A. [Department of Physics, College of Science, Taibah University Al-Madinah Al-Mounawwarah KSA (Saudi Arabia); Department of Physics, Taiz University in Turba, Taiz (Yemen); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria); Ladrem, M., E-mail: mladrem@yahoo.fr [Department of Physics, College of Science, Taibah University Al-Madinah Al-Mounawwarah KSA (Saudi Arabia); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria)

2016-06-10

Any physical system considered to study the QCD deconfinement phase transition certainly has a finite volume, so the finite size effects are inevitably present. This renders the location of the phase transition and the determination of its order as an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the colorless QCD deconfinement transition point in finite volume T{sub 0}(V), a new approach based on the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the ℒ{sub m,n}-Method is used. We have shown that both cumulants of higher order and their ratios, associated to the thermodynamical fluctuations of the order parameter, in QCD deconfinement phase transition behave in a particular enough way revealing pronounced oscillations in the transition region. The sign structure and the oscillatory behavior of these in the vicinity of the deconfinement phase transition point might be a sensitive probe and may allow one to elucidate their relation to the QCD phase transition point. In the context of our model, we have shown that the finite volume transition point is always associated to the appearance of a particular point in whole higher order cumulants under consideration.

Cumulative effects of forest management activities: how might they occur?

Science.gov (United States)

R. M. Rice; R. B. Thomas

1985-01-01

Concerns are often voiced about possible environmental damage as the result of the cumulative sedimentation effects of logging and forest road construction. In response to these concerns, National Forests are developing procedures to reduce the possibility that their activities may lead to unacceptable cumulative effects

Framework for mapping the drivers of coastal vulnerability and spatial decision making for climate-change adaptation: A case study from Maharashtra, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnan, Pandian; Ananthan, Pachampalayam Shanmugam; Purvaja, Ramachandran; Joyson Joe Jeevamani, Jeyapaul; Amali Infantina, John; Srinivasa Rao, Cherukumalli; Anand, Arur; Mahendra, Ranganalli Somashekharappa; Sekar, Iyyapa; Kareemulla, Kalakada; Biswas, Amit; Kalpana Sastry, Regulagedda; Ramesh, Ramachandran

2018-05-31

The impacts of climate change are of particular concern to the coastal region of tropical countries like India, which are exposed to cyclones, floods, tsunami, seawater intrusion, etc. Climate-change adaptation presupposes comprehensive assessment of vulnerability status. Studies so far relied either on remote sensing-based spatial mapping of physical vulnerability or on certain socio-economic aspects with limited scope for upscaling or replication. The current study is an attempt to develop a holistic and robust framework to assess the vulnerability of coastal India at different levels. We propose and estimate cumulative vulnerability index (CVI) as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, at the village level, using nationally comparable and credible datasets. The exposure index (EI) was determined at the village level by decomposing the spatial multi-hazard maps, while sensitivity (SI) and adaptive capacity indices (ACI) were estimated using 23 indicators, covering social and economic aspects. The indicators were identified through the literature review, expert consultations, opinion survey, and were further validated through statistical tests. The socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI) was constructed as a function of sensitivity and adaptive capacity for planning grassroot-level interventions and adaptation strategies. The framework was piloted in Sindhudurg, a coastal district in Maharashtra, India. It comprises 317 villages, spread across three taluks viz., Devgad, Malvan and Vengurla. The villages in Sindhudurg were ranked based on this multi-criteria approach. Based on CVI values, 92 villages (30%) in Sindhudurg were identified as highly vulnerable. We propose a decision tool for identifying villages vulnerable to changing climate, based on their level of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in a two-dimensional matrix, thus aiding in planning location-specific interventions. Here, vulnerability indicators are classified and designated as

Application of Higher-Order Cumulant in Fault Diagnosis of Rolling Bearing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen, Yongjun; Yang, Shaopu; Wang, Junfeng

2013-01-01

In this paper a new method of pattern recognition based on higher-order cumulant and envelope analysis is presented. The core of this new method is to construct analytical signals from the given signals and obtain the envelope signals firstly, then compute and compare the higher-order cumulants of the envelope signals. The higher-order cumulants could be used as a characteristic quantity to distinguish these given signals. As an example, this method is applied in fault diagnosis for 197726 rolling bearing of freight locomotive. The comparisons of the second-order, third-order and fourth-order cumulants of the envelope signals from different vibration signals of rolling bearing show this new method could discriminate the normal and two fault signals distinctly

Psychotic-spectrum symptoms, cumulative adversity exposure and substance use among high-risk girls.

Science.gov (United States)

Lansing, Amy E; Plante, Wendy Y; Fennema-Notestine, Christine; Golshan, Shahrokh; Beck, Audrey N

2018-02-01

Psychotic-spectrum symptoms are linked to trauma, substance/alcohol use (SAU), criminality/violence and poor functional outcomes, supporting the need for early detection in vulnerable populations. To better understand high-risk girls' mental health, we assessed: (1) psychotic-spectrum symptoms; (2) cumulative trauma, adversity and loss exposures (C-TALE) and adversity-indicators (symptoms, maladaptive coping, stressor-reactivity); and SAU risk-factors; and (3) relationships among psychotic-spectrum symptoms, adversity-indicators and SAU risk-factors. We administered the Structured Clinical Interviews for Psychotic Spectrum, and Trauma and Loss Spectrum to 158 adolescent delinquent girls. Girls' psychotic-spectrum profiles were similar to previously reported adult psychotic patients and characterized by typical symptoms (hallucinations/delusions, reported largely SAU-independent), interpersonal sensitivity, schizoid traits and paranoia (over-interpretation, anger over-reactivity, hypervigilance). Auditory/visual hallucinations (55.7%), delusions (92.4%), ideas of reference (96.8%) and adversity (90.0% ≥10/24 C-TALE-types) were common. Mean loss (4) and trauma (8) onset-age occurred before SAU-onset (12). Significant positive correlations were found among psychotic-spectrum symptoms, stressor-reactivity, C-TALE, adversity-indicators; and number of SAU-types; and a negative correlation occurred between psychotic-spectrum symptoms and earlier alcohol use onset. After controlling for number of SAU-types, stressor-reactivity and adversity-related numbing individually had the largest associations with total psychotic-spectrum symptoms (b = 2.6-4.3). Girls averaged more than 4 maladaptive coping strategies (e.g., 24.8% attempted suicide) in response to adversity, amplifying potential health-disparities. No racial/ethnic differences emerged on psychotic-spectrum symptoms. This symptom constellation during adolescence likely interferes with social and academic

Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

OpenAIRE

Taubenberger, Stefan

2014-01-01

At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

Fuzzing and Vulnerabilities Search

OpenAIRE

Stanislav Evgenyevich Kirillov; Nikolai Petrovich Lavrentiev

2013-01-01

Fuzzing for vulnerabilities can be very effective if we know the input data format. This work contains description of network message format recovery algorithm and the usage of restored data model in fuzzing and vulnerabilities search.

Aren't we all vulnerable: why do vulnerability analysis?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moench, Marcus

2011-11-15

The idea of 'vulnerability' is widely-used shorthand for the disproportionate impacts that climate change will have on high-risk groups and fragile ecosystems. Decision makers increasingly want to target adaptation funding to those people and environments most affected by climate change. They must also be able to monitor the effectiveness of their investments. Vulnerability analysis is sometimes presented as the solution to these wants and needs — but existing approaches are often of little use: at best, they reiterate what we already know; at worst, they are used to justify entrenched agendas. To be truly useful as a basis for dialogue, action and accountability, the meaning of 'vulnerability' must be clarified and the methods for analysing it greatly strengthened. This means establishing standard, replicable approaches that differentiate between the roles and exposure of stakeholders, systems and institutions.

Heat flow in chains driven by thermal noise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fogedby, Hans C; Imparato, Alberto

2012-01-01

We consider the large deviation function for a classical harmonic chain composed of N particles driven at the end points by heat reservoirs, first derived in the quantum regime by Saito and Dhar (2007 Phys. Rev. Lett. 99 180601) and in the classical regime by Saito and Dhar (2011 Phys. Rev. E 83 041121) and Kundu et al (2011 J. Stat. Mech. P03007). Within a Langevin description we perform this calculation on the basis of a standard path integral calculation in Fourier space. The cumulant generating function yielding the large deviation function is given in terms of a transmission Green's function and is consistent with the fluctuation theorem. We find a simple expression for the tails of the heat distribution, which turns out to decay exponentially. We, moreover, consider an extension of a single-particle model suggested by Derrida and Brunet (2005 Einstein Aujourd'hui (Les Ulis: EDP Sciences)) and discuss the two-particle case. We also discuss the limit for large N and present a closed expression for the cumulant generating function. Finally, we present a derivation of the fluctuation theorem on the basis of a Fokker–Planck description. This result is not restricted to the harmonic case but is valid for a general interaction potential between the particles

Elaboration of a concept for the cumulative environmental exposure assessment of biocides

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gross, Rita; Bunke, Dirk; Moch, Katja [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie e.V., Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Gartiser, Stefan [Hydrotox GmbH, Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

2011-12-15

Article 10(1) of the EU Biocidal Products Directive 98/8/EC (BPD) requires that for the inclusion of an active substance in Annex I, Annex IA or IB, cumulation effects from the use of biocidal products containing the same active substance shall be taken into account, where relevant. The study proves the feasibility of a technical realisation of Article 10(1) of the BPD and elaborates a first concept for the cumulative environmental exposure assessment of biocides. Existing requirements concerning cumulative assessments in other regulatory frameworks have been evaluated and their applicability for biocides has been examined. Technical terms and definitions used in this context were documented with the aim to harmonise terminology with other frameworks and to set up a precise definition within the BPD. Furthermore, application conditions of biocidal products have been analysed to find out for which cumulative exposure assessments may be relevant. Different parameters were identified which might serve as indicators for the relevance of cumulative exposure assessments. These indicators were then integrated in a flow chart by means of which the relevance of cumulative exposure assessments can be checked. Finally, proposals for the technical performance of cumulative exposure assessments within the Review Programme have been elaborated with the aim to bring the results of the project into the upcoming development and harmonization processes on EU level. (orig.)

Effects of Heat Stress on Construction Labor Productivity in Hong Kong: A Case Study of Rebar Workers

OpenAIRE

Yi, Wen; Chan, Albert P. C.

2017-01-01

Global warming is bringing more frequent and severe heat waves, and the result will be serious for vulnerable populations such as construction workers. Excessive heat stress has profound effects on physiological responses, which cause occupational injuries, fatalities and low productivity. Construction workers are particularly affected by heat stress, because of the body heat production caused by physically demanding tasks, and hot and humid working conditions. Field studies were conducted be...

spatially identifying vulnerable areas

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The model structure is aimed at understanding the critical vulnerable factors that ... This paper incorporates multiple criteria and rank risk factors. ..... In terms of quantifying vulnerable areas within the country, the analysis is done based on 9 ...

Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

2012-01-01

The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO2 relative to other major climate forcing agents. PMID:22869803

Cumulative keyboard strokes: a possible risk factor for carpal tunnel syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eleftheriou Andreas

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Contradictory reports have been published regarding the association of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome (CTS and the use of computer keyboard. Previous studies did not take into account the cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes among computer workers. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between cumulative keyboard use (keyboard strokes and CTS. Methods Employees (461 from a Governmental data entry & processing unit agreed to participate (response rate: 84.1 % in a cross-sectional study. Α questionnaire was distributed to the participants to obtain information on socio-demographics and risk factors for CTS. The participants were examined for signs and symptoms related to CTS and were asked if they had previous history or surgery for CTS. The cumulative amount of the keyboard strokes per worker per year was calculated by the use of payroll’s registry. Two case definitions for CTS were used. The first included subjects with personal history/surgery for CTS while the second included subjects that belonged to the first case definition plus those participants were identified through clinical examination. Results Multivariate analysis used for both case definitions, indicated that those employees with high cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes were at increased risk of CTS (case definition A: OR = 2.23;95 % CI = 1.09-4.52 and case definition B: OR = 2.41; 95%CI = 1.36-4.25. A dose response pattern between cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes and CTS has been revealed (p  Conclusions The present study indicated a possible association between cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes and development of CTS. Cumulative exposure to key-board strokes would be taken into account as an exposure indicator regarding exposure assessment of computer workers. Further research is needed in order to test the results of the current study and assess causality between cumulative keyboard strokes and

The Impacts of Heating Strategy on Soil Moisture Estimation Using Actively Heated Fiber Optics.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Jianzhi; Agliata, Rosa; Steele-Dunne, Susan; Hoes, Olivier; Bogaard, Thom; Greco, Roberto; van de Giesen, Nick

2017-09-13

Several recent studies have highlighted the potential of Actively Heated Fiber Optics (AHFO) for high resolution soil moisture mapping. In AHFO, the soil moisture can be calculated from the cumulative temperature ( T cum ), the maximum temperature ( T max ), or the soil thermal conductivity determined from the cooling phase after heating ( λ ). This study investigates the performance of the T cum , T max and λ methods for different heating strategies, i.e., differences in the duration and input power of the applied heat pulse. The aim is to compare the three approaches and to determine which is best suited to field applications where the power supply is limited. Results show that increasing the input power of the heat pulses makes it easier to differentiate between dry and wet soil conditions, which leads to an improved accuracy. Results suggest that if the power supply is limited, the heating strength is insufficient for the λ method to yield accurate estimates. Generally, the T cum and T max methods have similar accuracy. If the input power is limited, increasing the heat pulse duration can improve the accuracy of the AHFO method for both of these techniques. In particular, extending the heating duration can significantly increase the sensitivity of T cum to soil moisture. Hence, the T cum method is recommended when the input power is limited. Finally, results also show that up to 50% of the cable temperature change during the heat pulse can be attributed to soil background temperature, i.e., soil temperature changed by the net solar radiation. A method is proposed to correct this background temperature change. Without correction, soil moisture information can be completely masked by the background temperature error.

Analyzing driving forces behind changes in energy vulnerability of Spanish electricity generation through a Divisia index-based method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernández González, P.; Moreno, B.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We propose and develop the LMDI approach to factorize changes in electricity bill vulnerability. • Spanish vulnerability (1995–2011) markedly grew mainly by increasing gas dependence. • Fuel price increase and growing importance of electricity damage energy security. • Energy intensity advances & fuel diversification: insufficient to drive vulnerability. • Main recommendation: enhance internal energy market and common external EU strategy. - Abstract: High energy dependence on fossil raises vulnerability concerns about security of supply and energy cost. This research examines the impact of high dependence of imported fuels for power generation in Spain through the quantification and analysis of the driving forces behind the change in its electricity bill. Following logarithmic mean Divisia indexes approach, we present and perform a new method that enables a complete decomposition of changes in electricity vulnerability into contributions from several drivers. In fact, we identify five predefined factors behind the variations in vulnerability in Spain during the 1998–2011 period: fuel price, average heat rate, fuel dependence, degree of electricity importance and energy intensity. The application of this approach reveals a significant increase in Spanish vulnerability in the last two decades, promoted by increments in fuel price and importance of electricity over the primary energy consumption, but especially by increasing fuel dependence (particularly gas dependence). Therefore, findings mainly advocate for those strategies aimed at reducing Spanish energy dependence. Also those improving thermal efficiency and energy intensity are indicated

Fuzzing and Vulnerabilities Search

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanislav Evgenyevich Kirillov

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Fuzzing for vulnerabilities can be very effective if we know the input data format. This work contains description of network message format recovery algorithm and the usage of restored data model in fuzzing and vulnerabilities search.

Vulnerability and behavioral response to ultraviolet radiation in the components of a foliar mite prey-predator system

Science.gov (United States)

Tachi, Fuyuki; Osakabe, Masahiro

2012-12-01

Ambient ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation impacts plant-dwelling arthropods including herbivorous and predatory mites. However, the effects of UVB on prey-predator systems, such as that between the herbivorous spider mite and predatory phytoseiid mite, are poorly understood. A comparative study was conducted to determine the vulnerability and behavioral responses of these mites to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. First, we analyzed dose-response (cumulative irradiance-mortality) curves for the eggs of phytoseiid mites ( Neoseiulus californicus, Neoseiulus womersleyi, and Phytoseiulus persimilis) and the spider mite ( Tetranychus urticae) to UVB radiation from a UV lamp. This indicated that the phytoseiid mites were more vulnerable than the spider mite, although P. persimilis was slightly more tolerant than the other two phytoseiid mites. Second, we compared the avoidance behavior of adult female N. californicus and two spider mite species ( T. urticae, a lower leaf surface user; Panonychus citri, an upper leaf surface user) in response to solar UV and visible light. N. californicus actively avoided both types of radiation, whereas P. citri showed only minimal avoidance behavior. T. urticae actively avoided UV as well as N. californicus but exhibited a slow response to visible light as well as P. citri. Such variation in vulnerability and avoidance behavior accounts for differences in the species adaptations to solar UVB radiation. This may be the primary factor determining habitat use among these mites on host plant leaves, subsequently affecting accessibility by predators and also intraguild competition.

Cumulative effective dose associated with radiography and CT of adolescents with spinal injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemburg, Stefan P; Peters, Soeren A; Roggenland, Daniela; Nicolas, Volkmar; Heyer, Christoph M

2010-12-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze the quantity and distribution of cumulative effective doses in diagnostic imaging of adolescents with spinal injuries. At a level 1 trauma center from July 2003 through June 2009, imaging procedures during initial evaluation and hospitalization and after discharge of all patients 10-20 years old with spinal fractures were retrospectively analyzed. The cumulative effective doses for all imaging studies were calculated, and the doses to patients with spinal injuries who had multiple traumatic injuries were compared with the doses to patients with spinal injuries but without multiple injuries. The significance level was set at 5%. Imaging studies of 72 patients (32 with multiple injuries; average age, 17.5 years) entailed a median cumulative effective dose of 18.89 mSv. Patients with multiple injuries had a significantly higher total cumulative effective dose (29.70 versus 10.86 mSv, p cumulative effective dose to multiple injury patients during the initial evaluation (18.39 versus 2.83 mSv, p cumulative effective dose. Adolescents with spinal injuries receive a cumulative effective dose equal to that of adult trauma patients and nearly three times that of pediatric trauma patients. Areas of focus in lowering cumulative effective dose should be appropriate initial estimation of trauma severity and careful selection of CT scan parameters.

Rapid shift in thermal resistance between generations through maternal heat exposure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zizzari, Z.V.; Ellers, J.

2014-01-01

Given the current rapid climate change, understanding the mechanisms underlying heat tolerance and its plasticity is an important goal of global change biology. Soil fauna communities are especially vulnerable because of their limited dispersal ability. It is generally recognized that

Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

Science.gov (United States)

Byers, Edward; Gidden, Matthew; Leclère, David; Balkovic, Juraj; Burek, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Greve, Peter; Grey, David; Havlik, Petr; Hillers, Astrid; Johnson, Nils; Kahil, Taher; Krey, Volker; Langan, Simon; Nakicenovic, Nebjosa; Novak, Robert; Obersteiner, Michael; Pachauri, Shonali; Palazzo, Amanda; Parkinson, Simon; Rao, Narasimha D.; Rogelj, Joeri; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, Yoshihide; Willaarts, Barbara; Riahi, Keywan

2018-05-01

Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact models. The analysis includes changes in drought intensity and water stress index, cooling demand change and heat event exposure, habitat degradation and crop yield, amongst others. To investigate exposure to multi-sector climate impacts, these are combined with gridded socioeconomic projections of population and those ‘vulnerable to poverty’ from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (income populations vulnerable to poverty, the exposure is an order of magnitude greater (8–32x) in the high poverty and inequality scenarios (SSP3) compared to sustainable socioeconomic development (SSP1). Whilst 85%–95% of global exposure falls to Asian and African regions, they have 91%–98% of the exposed and vulnerable population (depending on SSP/GMT combination), approximately half of which in South Asia. In higher warming scenarios, African regions have growing proportion of the global exposed and vulnerable population, ranging from 7%–17% at 1.5 °C, doubling to 14%–30% at 2 °C and again to 27%–51% at 3 °C. Finally, beyond 2 °C and at higher risk thresholds, the world’s poorest are disproportionately impacted, particularly in cases (SSP3) of high inequality in Africa and southern Asia. Sustainable development that reduces poverty, mitigates emissions and meets targets in the water, energy and land sectors has the potential for order-of-magnitude scale reductions in multi-sector climate risk for the most vulnerable.

Selective vulnerability in brain hypoxia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cervos-Navarro, J.; Diemer, Nils Henrik

1991-01-01

Neuropathology, selective vulnerability, brain hypoxia, vascular factors, excitotoxicity, ion homeostasis......Neuropathology, selective vulnerability, brain hypoxia, vascular factors, excitotoxicity, ion homeostasis...

Evolution of costly explicit memory and cumulative culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakamaru, Mayuko

2016-06-21

Humans can acquire new information and modify it (cumulative culture) based on their learning and memory abilities, especially explicit memory, through the processes of encoding, consolidation, storage, and retrieval. Explicit memory is categorized into semantic and episodic memories. Animals have semantic memory, while episodic memory is unique to humans and essential for innovation and the evolution of culture. As both episodic and semantic memory are needed for innovation, the evolution of explicit memory influences the evolution of culture. However, previous theoretical studies have shown that environmental fluctuations influence the evolution of imitation (social learning) and innovation (individual learning) and assume that memory is not an evolutionary trait. If individuals can store and retrieve acquired information properly, they can modify it and innovate new information. Therefore, being able to store and retrieve information is essential from the perspective of cultural evolution. However, if both storage and retrieval were too costly, forgetting and relearning would have an advantage over storing and retrieving acquired information. In this study, using mathematical analysis and individual-based simulations, we investigate whether cumulative culture can promote the coevolution of costly memory and social and individual learning, assuming that cumulative culture improves the fitness of each individual. The conclusions are: (1) without cumulative culture, a social learning cost is essential for the evolution of storage-retrieval. Costly storage-retrieval can evolve with individual learning but costly social learning does not evolve. When low-cost social learning evolves, the repetition of forgetting and learning is favored more than the evolution of costly storage-retrieval, even though a cultural trait improves the fitness. (2) When cumulative culture exists and improves fitness, storage-retrieval can evolve with social and/or individual learning, which

Heat accumulation during high repetition rate ultrafast laser interaction: Waveguide writing in borosilicate glass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Haibin; Eaton, Shane M; Li, Jianzhao; Herman, Peter R

2007-01-01

During high repetition rate (>200 kHz) ultrafast laser waveguide writing, visible heat modified zones surrounding the formed waveguide occur as a result of heat accumulation. The radii of the heat-modified zones increase with the laser net fluence, and were found to correlate with the formation of low-loss and cylindrically symmetric optical waveguides. A numerical thermal model based on the finite difference method is applied here to account for cumulative heating and diffusion effects. The model successfully shows that heat propagation and accumulation accurately predict the radius of the 'heat modified' zones observed in borosilicate glass waveguides formed across a wide range of laser exposure conditions. Such modelling promises better control of thermal effects for optimizing the fabrication and performance of three-dimensional optical devices in transparent materials

Heat leak testing of a superconducting RHIC dipole magnet at Brookhaven National Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeLalio, J.T.; Brown, D.P.; Sondericker, J.H.

1993-01-01

Brookhaven National Laboratory is currently performing heat load tests on a superconducting dipole magnet. The magnet is a prototype of the 360, 8 cm bore, arc dipole magnets that will be used in the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RMC). An accurate measurement of the heat load is needed to eliminate cumulative errors when determining the REUC cryogenic system load requirements. The test setup consists of a dipole positioned between two quadrupoles in a common vacuum tank and heat shield. Piping and instrumentation are arranged to facilitate measurement of the heat load on the primary 4.6 K magnet load and the secondary 55 K heat shield load. Initial results suggest that the primary heat load is well below design allowances. The secondary load was found to be higher than estimated, but remained close to the budgeted amount. Overall, the dipole performed to specifications

CUMULATE ROCKS ASSOCIATED WITH CARBONATE ASSIMILATION, HORTAVÆR COMPLEX, NORTH-CENTRAL NORWAY

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, C. G.; Prestvik, T.; Li, Y.

2009-12-01

The Hortavær igneous complex intruded high-grade metamorphic rocks of the Caledonian Helgeland Nappe Complex at ca. 466 Ma. The complex is an unusual mafic-silicic layered intrusion (MASLI) because the principal felsic rock type is syenite and because the syenite formed in situ rather than by deep-seated partial melting of crustal rocks. Magma differentiation in the complex was by assimilation, primarily of calc-silicate rocks and melts with contributions from marble and semi-pelites, plus fractional crystallization. The effect of assimilation of calcite-rich rocks was to enhance stability of fassaitic clinopyroxene at the expense of olivine, which resulted in alkali-rich residual melts and lowering of silica activity. This combination of MASLI-style emplacement and carbonate assimilation produced three types of cumulate rocks: (1) Syenitic cumulates formed by liquid-crystal separation. As sheets of mafic magma were loaded on crystal-rich syenitic magma, residual liquid was expelled, penetrating the overlying mafic sheets in flame structures, and leaving a cumulate syenite. (2) Reaction cumulates. Carbonate assimilation, illustrated by a simple assimilation reaction: olivine + calcite + melt = clinopyroxene + CO2 resulted in cpx-rich cumulates such as clinopyroxenite, gabbro, and mela-monzodiorite, many of which contain igneous calcite. (3) Magmatic skarns. Calc-silicate host rocks underwent partial melting during assimilation, yielding a Ca-rich melt as the principal assimilated material and permitting extensive reaction with surrounding magma to form Kspar + cpx + garnet-rich ‘cumulate’ rocks. Cumulate types (2) and (3) do not reflect traditional views of cumulate rocks but instead result from a series of melt-present discontinuous (peritectic) reactions and partial melting of calc-silicate xenoliths. In the Hortavær complex, such cumulates are evident because of the distinctive peritectic cumulate assemblages. It is unclear whether assimilation of �

EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

Science.gov (United States)

Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

Hyperscaling breakdown and Ising spin glasses: The Binder cumulant

Science.gov (United States)

Lundow, P. H.; Campbell, I. A.

2018-02-01

Among the Renormalization Group Theory scaling rules relating critical exponents, there are hyperscaling rules involving the dimension of the system. It is well known that in Ising models hyperscaling breaks down above the upper critical dimension. It was shown by Schwartz (1991) that the standard Josephson hyperscaling rule can also break down in Ising systems with quenched random interactions. A related Renormalization Group Theory hyperscaling rule links the critical exponents for the normalized Binder cumulant and the correlation length in the thermodynamic limit. An appropriate scaling approach for analyzing measurements from criticality to infinite temperature is first outlined. Numerical data on the scaling of the normalized correlation length and the normalized Binder cumulant are shown for the canonical Ising ferromagnet model in dimension three where hyperscaling holds, for the Ising ferromagnet in dimension five (so above the upper critical dimension) where hyperscaling breaks down, and then for Ising spin glass models in dimension three where the quenched interactions are random. For the Ising spin glasses there is a breakdown of the normalized Binder cumulant hyperscaling relation in the thermodynamic limit regime, with a return to size independent Binder cumulant values in the finite-size scaling regime around the critical region.

Web Application Vulnerabilities

OpenAIRE

Yadav, Bhanu

2014-01-01

Web application security has been a major issue in information technology since the evolvement of dynamic web application. The main objective of this project was to carry out a detailed study on the top three web application vulnerabilities such as injection, cross site scripting, broken authentication and session management, present the situation where an application can be vulnerable to these web threats and finally provide preventative measures against them. ...

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

Science.gov (United States)

Menezes, Júlia Alves; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; Santos, Rhavena Barbosa Dos; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Júlia Alves Menezes

Full Text Available Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

Summary report of a workshop on establishing cumulative effects thresholds : a suggested approach for establishing cumulative effects thresholds in a Yukon context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

Increasingly, thresholds are being used as a land and cumulative effects assessment and management tool. To assist in the management of wildlife species such as woodland caribou, the Department of Indian and Northern Affairs (DIAND) Environment Directorate, Yukon sponsored a workshop to develop and use cumulative thresholds in the Yukon. The approximately 30 participants reviewed recent initiatives in the Yukon and other jurisdictions. The workshop is expected to help formulate a strategic vision for implementing cumulative effects thresholds in the Yukon. The key to success resides in building relationships with Umbrella Final Agreement (UFA) Boards, the Development Assessment Process (DAP), and the Yukon Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Act (YESAA). Broad support is required within an integrated resource management framework. The workshop featured discussions on current science and theory of cumulative effects thresholds. Potential data and implementation issues were also discussed. It was concluded that thresholds are useful and scientifically defensible. The threshold research results obtained in Alberta, British Columbia and the Northwest Territories are applicable to the Yukon. One of the best tools for establishing and tracking thresholds is habitat effectiveness. Effects must be monitored and tracked. Biologists must share their information with decision makers. Interagency coordination and assistance should be facilitated through the establishment of working groups. Regional land use plans should include thresholds. 7 refs.

More Intense Mega Heat Waves in the Warmer World

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, G.; Robinson, D. A.

2017-12-01

In this study, changes in the occurrences of heat waves on the globe since the mid- 20th century and the synoptic characteristics of mega heat waves at regional scales in the warmer climate are examined. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface data show that there have been no obvious linear changes in the heat wave frequencies at the continental scales since the mid-20th century, but amplified interdecadal variations led to unprecedented intense heat waves in the recent decades at the regional scales. Such mega heat waves have been more frequently observed in the poleward subtropical climate belts as well as in the interior region of continents. According to the analyses of upper tropospheric data, the occurrences of more intense mega heat waves since the late 20th century may be associated with the expansion of subtropical high pressures. These results suggest that populous cities near the subtropical climate zones should provide proactive mega heat wave warning systems for residents due to their vulnerability to the sudden attack of human lives harvest by mega heat waves in the warmer 21st century.

Mismatch or cumulative stress : Toward an integrated hypothesis of programming effects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nederhof, Esther; Schmidt, Mathias V.

2012-01-01

This paper integrates the cumulative stress hypothesis with the mismatch hypothesis, taking into account individual differences in sensitivity to programming. According to the cumulative stress hypothesis, individuals are more likely to suffer from disease as adversity accumulates. According to the

The three-hit concept of vulnerability and resilience: toward understanding adaptation to early-life adversity outcome.

Science.gov (United States)

Daskalakis, Nikolaos P; Bagot, Rosemary C; Parker, Karen J; Vinkers, Christiaan H; de Kloet, E R

2013-09-01

Stressful experiences during early-life can modulate the genetic programming of specific brain circuits underlying emotional and cognitive aspects of behavioral adaptation to stressful experiences later in life. Although this programming effect exerted by experience-related factors is an important determinant of mental health, its outcome depends on cognitive inputs and hence the valence an individual assigns to a given environmental context. From this perspective we will highlight, with studies in rodents, non-human primates and humans, the three-hit concept of vulnerability and resilience to stress-related mental disorders, which is based on gene-environment interactions during critical phases of perinatal and juvenile brain development. The three-hit (i.e., hit-1: genetic predisposition, hit-2: early-life environment, and hit-3: later-life environment) concept accommodates the cumulative stress hypothesis stating that in a given context vulnerability is enhanced when failure to cope with adversity accumulates. Alternatively, the concept also points to the individual's predictive adaptive capacity, which underlies the stress inoculation and match/mismatch hypotheses. The latter hypotheses propose that the experience of relatively mild early-life adversity prepares for the future and promotes resilience to similar challenges in later-life; when a mismatch occurs between early and later-life experience, coping is compromised and vulnerability is enhanced. The three-hit concept is fundamental for understanding how individuals can either be prepared for coping with life to come and remain resilient or are unable to do so and succumb to a stress-related mental disorder, under seemingly identical circumstances. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finite-volume cumulant expansion in QCD-colorless plasma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ladrem, M. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Physics Department, Algiers (Algeria); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M.A.A. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Taiz University in Turba, Physics Department, Taiz (Yemen); Alfull, Z.Z. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Cherif, S. [ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ghardaia University, Sciences and Technologies Department, Ghardaia (Algeria)

2015-09-15

Due to the finite-size effects, the localization of the phase transition in finite systems and the determination of its order, become an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the finite-volume transition point T{sub 0}(V) of the QCD deconfinement phase transition to a colorless QGP, we have developed a new approach using the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the L{sub mn}-method. The first six cumulants C{sub 1,2,3,4,5,6} with the corresponding under-normalized ratios (skewness Σ, kurtosis κ, pentosis Π{sub ±}, and hexosis H{sub 1,2,3}) and three unnormalized combinations of them, (O = σ{sup 2}κΣ{sup -1},U = σ{sup -2}Σ{sup -1},N = σ{sup 2}κ) are calculated and studied as functions of (T, V). A new approach, unifying in a clear and consistent way the definitions of cumulant ratios, is proposed.Anumerical FSS analysis of the obtained results has allowed us to locate accurately the finite-volume transition point. The extracted transition temperature value T{sub 0}(V) agrees with that expected T{sub 0}{sup N}(V) from the order parameter and the thermal susceptibility χ{sub T} (T, V), according to the standard procedure of localization to within about 2%. In addition to this, a very good correlation factor is obtained proving the validity of our cumulants method. The agreement of our results with those obtained by means of other models is remarkable. (orig.)

Mining Bug Databases for Unidentified Software Vulnerabilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dumidu Wijayasekara; Milos Manic; Jason Wright; Miles McQueen

2012-06-01

Identifying software vulnerabilities is becoming more important as critical and sensitive systems increasingly rely on complex software systems. It has been suggested in previous work that some bugs are only identified as vulnerabilities long after the bug has been made public. These vulnerabilities are known as hidden impact vulnerabilities. This paper discusses the feasibility and necessity to mine common publicly available bug databases for vulnerabilities that are yet to be identified. We present bug database analysis of two well known and frequently used software packages, namely Linux kernel and MySQL. It is shown that for both Linux and MySQL, a significant portion of vulnerabilities that were discovered for the time period from January 2006 to April 2011 were hidden impact vulnerabilities. It is also shown that the percentage of hidden impact vulnerabilities has increased in the last two years, for both software packages. We then propose an improved hidden impact vulnerability identification methodology based on text mining bug databases, and conclude by discussing a few potential problems faced by such a classifier.

Heat Retreat Locations in Cities - The Survey-Based Location Analysis of Heat Relief

Science.gov (United States)

Neht, Alice; Maximini, Claudia; Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin

2017-12-01

The adaptation of cities to climate change effects is one of the major strategies in urban planning to encounter the challenges of climate change (IPCC 2014). One of the fields of climate change adaption is dealing with heat events that occur more frequently and with greater intensity. Cities in particular are vulnerable to these events due to high population and infrastructure density. Proceeding urbanization calls for the existence of sufficient heat retreat locations (HRL) to enable relief for the population from heat in summer. This is why an extensive analysis of HRL is needed. This paper aims at the development of a survey-based location analysis of heat relief by identifying user groups, locations and characteristics of HRL based on a home survey that was conducted in three German cities. Key results of the study show that the majority of the participants of the survey are users of existing HRL, are affected by heat, and perceive heat as a burden in summer. Moreover, HRL that are located in close proximity are preferred by most users while their effect depends on the regional context that has to be considered in the analysis. Hence, this research presents an approach to heat relief that underlines the importance of HRL in cities by referring to selected examples of HRL types in densely populated areas of cities. HRL should especially be established and secured in densely built-up areas of cities. According to results of the survey, most HRL are located in public spaces, and the overall accessibility of HRL turned out to be an issue.

Open Source Vulnerability Database Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jake Kouns

2008-06-01

Full Text Available This article introduces the Open Source Vulnerability Database (OSVDB project which manages a global collection of computer security vulnerabilities, available for free use by the information security community. This collection contains information on known security weaknesses in operating systems, software products, protocols, hardware devices, and other infrastructure elements of information technology. The OSVDB project is intended to be the centralized global open source vulnerability collection on the Internet.

Assessment of vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change and adaptation planning in Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Matin, M. A.; Chitale, V. S.

2016-12-01

Understanding ecosystem level vulnerability of forests and dependence of local communities on these ecosystems is a first step towards developing effective adaptation strategies. As forests are important components of livelihoods system for a large percentage of the population in the Himalayan region, they offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities. Increased frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress, changes in winter ecology, and pest and fire outbreaksunder climate change scenarios could fundamentally alter the composition, productivity and biogeography of forests affecting the potential ecosystem services offered and forest-based livelihoods. Hence, forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and the development of a knowledgebase to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is identified as an urgent need. Climate change vulnerability is measured as a function of exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the system towards climate variability and extreme events. Effective adaptation to climate change depends on the availability of two important prerequisites: a) information on what, where, and how to adapt, and b) availability of resources to implement the adaptation measures. In the present study, we introduce the concept of two way multitier approach, which can support effective identification and implementation of adaptation measures in Nepal and the framework can be replicated in other countries in the HKH region. The assessment of overall vulnerability of forests comprises of two components: 1) understanding the relationship between exposure and sensitivity and positive feedback from adaptive capacity of forests; 2) quantifying the dependence of local communities on these ecosystems. We use climate datasets from Bioclim and biophysical products from MODIS, alongwith field datasets. We report that most of the forests along the high altitude areas and few

Cumulative emission budgets and their implications: the case for SAFE carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Myles; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David; Mason, Charles

2010-05-01

The risk of dangerous long-term climate change due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions is predominantly determined by cumulative emissions over all time, not the rate of emission in any given year or commitment period. This has profound implications for climate mitigation policy: emission targets for specific years such as 2020 or 2050 provide no guarantee of meeting any overall cumulative emission budget. By focusing attention on short-term measures to reduce the flow of emissions, they may even exacerbate the overall long-term stock. Here we consider how climate policies might be designed explicitly to limit cumulative emissions to, for example, one trillion tonnes of carbon, a figure that has been estimated to give a most likely warming of two degrees above pre-industrial, with a likely range of 1.6-2.6 degrees. Three approaches are considered: tradable emission permits with the possibility of indefinite emission banking, carbon taxes explicitly linked to cumulative emissions and mandatory carbon sequestration. Framing mitigation policy around cumulative targets alleviates the apparent tension between climate protection and short-term consumption that bedevils any attempt to forge global agreement. We argue that the simplest and hence potentially the most effective approach might be a mandatory requirement on the fossil fuel industry to ensure that a steadily increasing fraction of fossil carbon extracted from the ground is artificially removed from the active carbon cycle through some form of sequestration. We define Sequestered Adequate Fraction of Extracted (SAFE) carbon as a source in which this sequestered fraction is anchored to cumulative emissions, increasing smoothly to reach 100% before we release the trillionth tonne. While adopting the use of SAFE carbon would increase the cost of fossil energy much as a system of emission permits or carbon taxes would, it could do so with much less explicit government intervention. We contrast this proposal

Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Querbes, Adrien; Vaesen, Krist; Houkes, Wybo

2014-01-01

Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe

2014-01-01

Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO 2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions. (authors)

Childhood Cumulative Risk and Later Allostatic Load

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Doan, Stacey N; Dich, Nadya; Evans, Gary W

2014-01-01

State, followed for 8 years (between the ages 9 and 17). Poverty- related stress was computed using the cumulative risk approach, assessing stressors across 9 domains, including environmental, psychosocial, and demographic factors. Allostatic load captured a range of physiological responses, including......Objective: The present study investigated the long-term impact of exposure to poverty-related stressors during childhood on allostatic load, an index of physiological dysregulation, and the potential mediating role of substance use. Method: Participants (n = 162) were rural children from New York...... cardiovascular, hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis, sympathetic adrenal medullary system, and metabolic activity. Smoking and alcohol/drug use were tested as mediators of the hypothesized childhood risk-adolescent allostatic load relationship. Results: Cumulative risk exposure at age 9 predicted increases...

Tsunami survivors' perspectives on vulnerability and vulnerability reduction: evidence from Koh Phi Phi Don and Khao Lak, Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Steckley, Marylynn; Doberstein, Brent

2011-07-01

This paper presents the results of primary research with 40 survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in two communities: Khao Lak (n=20) and Koh Phi Phi Don (n=20), Thailand. It traces tsunami survivors' perceptions of vulnerability, determines whether residents felt that the tsunami affected different communities differently, identifies the populations and sub-community groups that survivors distinguished as being more vulnerable than others, highlights community-generated ideas about vulnerability reduction, and pinpoints a range of additional vulnerability reduction actions. Tsunami survivors most consistently identified the 'most vulnerable' community sub-populations as women, children, the elderly, foreigners, and the poor. In Khao Lak, however, respondents added 'Burmese migrants' to this list, whereas in Koh Phi Phi Don, they added 'Thai Muslims'. Results suggest that the two case study communities, both small, coastal, tourism-dominated communities no more than 100 kilometres apart, have differing vulnerable sub-groups and environmental vulnerabilities, requiring different post-disaster vulnerability reduction efforts. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

Mapping cumulative environmental risks: examples from the EU NoMiracle project

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pistocchi, A.; Groenwold, J.; Lahr, J.; Loos, M.; Mujica, M.; Ragas, A.M.J.; Rallo, R.; Sala, S.; Schlink, U.; Strebel, K.; Vighi, M.; Vizcaino, P.

2011-01-01

We present examples of cumulative chemical risk mapping methods developed within the NoMiracle project. The different examples illustrate the application of the concentration addition (CA) approach to pesticides at different scale, the integration in space of cumulative risks to individual organisms

Reef calcifiers are adapted to episodic heat stress but vulnerable to sustained warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Stuhr, Marleen; Reymond, Claire E; Rieder, Vera; Hallock, Pamela; Rahnenführer, Jörg; Westphal, Hildegard; Kucera, Michal

2017-01-01

Shallow marine ecosystems naturally experience fluctuating physicochemical conditions across spatial and temporal scales. Widespread coral-bleaching events, induced by prolonged heat stress, highlight the importance of how the duration and frequency of thermal stress influence the adaptive physiology of photosymbiotic calcifiers. Large benthic foraminifera harboring algal endosymbionts are major tropical carbonate producers and bioindicators of ecosystem health. Like corals, they are sensitive to thermal stress and bleach at temperatures temporarily occurring in their natural habitat and projected to happen more frequently. However, their thermal tolerance has been studied so far only by chronic exposure, so how they respond under more realistic episodic heat-event scenarios remains unknown. Here, we determined the physiological responses of Amphistegina gibbosa, an abundant western Atlantic foraminifera, to four different treatments--control, single, episodic, and chronic exposure to the same thermal stress (32°C)--in controlled laboratory cultures. Exposure to chronic thermal stress reduced motility and growth, while antioxidant capacity was elevated, and photosymbiont variables (coloration, oxygen-production rates, chlorophyll a concentration) indicated extensive bleaching. In contrast, single- and episodic-stress treatments were associated with higher motility and growth, while photosymbiont variables remained stable. The effects of single and episodic heat events were similar, except for the presumable occurrence of reproduction, which seemed to be suppressed by both episodic and chronic stress. The otherwise different responses between treatments with thermal fluctuations and chronic stress indicate adaptation to thermal peaks, but not to chronic exposure expected to ensue when baseline temperatures are elevated by climate change. This firstly implies that marine habitats with a history of fluctuating thermal stress potentially support resilient

Mapping Cumulative Impacts of Human Activities on Marine Ecosystems

OpenAIRE

, Seaplan

2018-01-01

Given the diversity of human uses and natural resources that converge in coastal waters, the potential independent and cumulative impacts of those uses on marine ecosystems are important to consider during ocean planning. This study was designed to support the development and implementation of the 2009 Massachusetts Ocean Management Plan. Its goal was to estimate and visualize the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal and marine ecosystems in the state and federal waters off of Ma...

Cotton genetic resources and crop vulnerability

Science.gov (United States)

A report on the genetic vulnerability of cotton was provided to the National Genetic Resources Advisory Council. The report discussed crop vulnerabilities associated with emerging diseases, emerging pests, and a narrowing genetic base. To address these crop vulnerabilities, the report discussed the ...

Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and Mental Health of Employees in ... CAs were measured in three forms (family adversities (CAFam), personal adversities ... Age of employees ranged between 18-65 years.

Vulnerability and resilience: a critical nexus.

Science.gov (United States)

Lotz, Mianna

2016-02-01

Not all forms of human fragility or vulnerability are unavoidable. Sometimes we knowingly and intentionally impose conditions of vulnerability on others; and sometimes we knowingly and intentionally enter into and assume conditions of vulnerability for ourselves (for example, when we decide to trust or forgive, enter into intimate relationships with others, become a parent, become a subject of medical or psychotherapeutic treatment, and the like). In this article, I propose a presently overlooked basis on which one might evaluate whether the imposition or assumption of vulnerability is acceptable, and on which one might ground a significant class of vulnerability-related obligations. Distinct from existing accounts of the importance of promoting autonomy in conditions of vulnerability, this article offers a preliminary exploration of the nature, role, and importance of resilience promotion, its relationship to autonomy promotion, and its prospects for improving human wellbeing in autonomy inhibiting conditions.

Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change in California

Science.gov (United States)

Heberger, M. G.; Cooley, H.; Moore, E.; Garzon, C.

2011-12-01

The western United States faces a range of impacts from global climate change, including increases in extreme heat, wildfires, and coastal flooding and erosion; changes are also likely to occur in air quality, water availability, and the spread of infectious diseases. To date, a great deal of research has been done to forecast the physical effects of climate change, while less attention has been given to the factors make different populations more or less vulnerable to harm from such changes. For example, mortality rates from Hurricane Audrey, which struck the coast of Louisiana in 1957, were more than eight times higher among blacks than among whites. While disaster events may not discriminate, impacts on human populations are shaped by "intervening conditions" that determine the human impact of the flood and the specific needs for preparedness, response, and recovery. In this study, we analyze the potential impacts of climate change by using recent downscaled climate model outputs, creating a variety of statistics and visualizations to communicate potential impacts to community groups and decision makers, after several meetings with these groups to ask, "What types of information are most useful to you for planning?" We relate climate impacts to social vulnerability - defined as the intersection of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of a person or group of people - with a focus on the U.S. state of California. Understanding vulnerability factors and the populations that exhibit these factors are critical for crafting effective climate change policies and response strategies. It is also important to the emerging study of climate justice, which is the concept that no group of people should disproportionately bear the burden of climate impacts or the costs of mitigation and adaptation.

An introduction to one-phase heat transfer: deterministic and probabilistic formulae

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colombino, A.; Pacilio, N.; Fiore, D.

1979-01-01

This work aims to formulating heat transfer processes via stochastic models. The bartlett formalism is introduced for treating the processes under analysis. The basic mathematical algorithms connected with the numerical description of stochastic variables are defined: factorial moments and cumulants, auto- and cross-correlation functions, auto- and cross-spectral density functions. Every thermal process is analyzed through the stochastic formalism previously introduced and the physical meaning of the analytical solutions found for each process is examined. The relevant features of the solution are collected in a synoptical box and theoretical formulae are given for the interpretation of heat transfer measurements in nuclear reactors

Cumulation of light nuclei

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldin, A.M.; Bondarev, V.K.; Golovanov, L.B.

1977-01-01

Limit fragmentation of light nuclei (deuterium, helium) bombarded with 8,6 GeV/c protons was investigated. Fragments (pions, protons and deuterons) were detected within the emission angle 50-150 deg with regard to primary protons and within the pulse range 150-180 MeV/c. By the kinematics of collision of a primary proton with a target at rest the fragments observed correspond to a target mass upto 3 GeV. Thus, the data obtained correspond to teh cumulation upto the third order

Cumulative Mass and NIOSH Variable Lifting Index Method for Risk Assessment: Possible Relations.

Science.gov (United States)

Stucchi, Giulia; Battevi, Natale; Pandolfi, Monica; Galinotti, Luca; Iodice, Simona; Favero, Chiara

2018-02-01

Objective The aim of this study was to explore whether the Variable Lifting Index (VLI) can be corrected for cumulative mass and thus test its efficacy in predicting the risk of low-back pain (LBP). Background A validation study of the VLI method was published in this journal reporting promising results. Although several studies highlighted a positive correlation between cumulative load and LBP, cumulative mass has never been considered in any of the studies investigating the relationship between manual material handling and LBP. Method Both VLI and cumulative mass were calculated for 2,374 exposed subjects using a systematic approach. Due to high variability of cumulative mass values, a stratification within VLI categories was employed. Dummy variables (1-4) were assigned to each class and used as a multiplier factor for the VLI, resulting in a new index (VLI_CMM). Data on LBP were collected by occupational physicians at the study sites. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of acute LBP within levels of risk exposure when compared with a control group formed by 1,028 unexposed subjects. Results Data showed greatly variable values of cumulative mass across all VLI classes. The potential effect of cumulative mass on damage emerged as not significant ( p value = .6526). Conclusion When comparing VLI_CMM with raw VLI, the former failed to prove itself as a better predictor of LBP risk. Application To recognize cumulative mass as a modifier, especially for lumbar degenerative spine diseases, authors of future studies should investigate potential association between the VLI and other damage variables.

Session: What do we know about cumulative or population impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kerlinger, Paul; Manville, Al; Kendall, Bill

2004-09-01

This session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of a panel discussion followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The panelists were Paul Kerlinger, Curry and Kerlinger, LLC, Al Manville, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Bill Kendall, US Geological Service. The panel addressed the potential cumulative impacts of wind turbines on bird and bat populations over time. Panel members gave brief presentations that touched on what is currently known, what laws apply, and the usefulness of population modeling. Topics addressed included which sources of modeling should be included in cumulative impacts, comparison of impacts from different modes of energy generation, as well as what research is still needed regarding cumulative impacts of wind energy development on bird and bat populations.

Evolutionary neural network modeling for software cumulative failure time prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tian Liang; Noore, Afzel

2005-01-01

An evolutionary neural network modeling approach for software cumulative failure time prediction based on multiple-delayed-input single-output architecture is proposed. Genetic algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the delayed input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network architecture. Modification of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to improve the ability to predict software cumulative failure time. The performance of our proposed approach has been compared using real-time control and flight dynamic application data sets. Numerical results show that both the goodness-of-fit and the next-step-predictability of our proposed approach have greater accuracy in predicting software cumulative failure time compared to existing approaches

VT - Vermont Social Vulnerability Index

Data.gov (United States)

Vermont Center for Geographic Information — Social vulnerability refers to the resilience of communities when responding to or recovering from threats to public health. The Vermont Social Vulnerability Index...

Cumulative irritation potential of topical retinoid formulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Leyden, James J; Grossman, Rachel; Nighland, Marge

2008-08-01

Localized irritation can limit treatment success with topical retinoids such as tretinoin and adapalene. The factors that influence irritant reactions have been shown to include individual skin sensitivity, the particular retinoid and concentration used, and the vehicle formulation. To compare the cutaneous tolerability of tretinoin 0.04% microsphere gel (TMG) with that of adapalene 0.3% gel and a standard tretinoin 0.025% cream. The results of 2 randomized, investigator-blinded studies of 2 to 3 weeks' duration, which utilized a split-face method to compare cumulative irritation scores induced by topical retinoids in subjects with healthy skin, were combined. Study 1 compared TMG 0.04% with adapalene 0.3% gel over 2 weeks, while study 2 compared TMG 0.04% with tretinoin 0.025% cream over 3 weeks. In study 1, TMG 0.04% was associated with significantly lower cumulative scores for erythema, dryness, and burning/stinging than adapalene 0.3% gel. However, in study 2, there were no significant differences in cumulative irritation scores between TMG 0.04% and tretinoin 0.025% cream. Measurements of erythema by a chromameter showed no significant differences between the test formulations in either study. Cutaneous tolerance of TMG 0.04% on the face was superior to that of adapalene 0.3% gel and similar to that of a standard tretinoin cream containing a lower concentration of the drug (0.025%).

Animal models to study plaque vulnerability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schapira, K.; Heeneman, S.; Daemen, M. J. A. P.

2007-01-01

The need to identify and characterize vulnerable atherosclerotic lesions in humans has lead to the development of various animal models of plaque vulnerability. In this review, current concepts of the vulnerable plaque as it leads to an acute coronary event are described, such as plaque rupture,

Novel Method of Weighting Cumulative Helmet Impacts Improves Correlation with Brain White Matter Changes After One Football Season of Sub-concussive Head Blows.

Science.gov (United States)

Merchant-Borna, Kian; Asselin, Patrick; Narayan, Darren; Abar, Beau; Jones, Courtney M C; Bazarian, Jeffrey J

2016-12-01

One football season of sub-concussive head blows has been shown to be associated with subclinical white matter (WM) changes on diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Prior research analyses of helmet-based impact metrics using mean and peak linear and rotational acceleration showed relatively weak correlations to these WM changes; however, these analyses failed to account for the emerging concept that neuronal vulnerability to successive hits is inversely related to the time between hits (TBH). To develop a novel method for quantifying the cumulative effects of sub-concussive head blows during a single season of collegiate football by weighting helmet-based impact measures for time between helmet impacts. We further aim to compare correlations to changes in DTI after one season of collegiate football using weighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures to correlations using non-weighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures and non-cumulative measures. We performed a secondary analysis of DTI and helmet impact data collected on ten Division III collegiate football players during the 2011 season. All subjects underwent diffusion MR imaging before the start of the football season and within 1 week of the end of the football season. Helmet impacts were recorded at each practice and game using helmet-mounted accelerometers, which computed five helmet-based impact measures for each hit: linear acceleration (LA), rotational acceleration (RA), Gadd Severity Index (GSI), Head Injury Criterion (HIC 15 ), and Head Impact Technology severity profile (HITsp). All helmet-based impact measures were analyzed using five methods of summary: peak and mean (non-cumulative measures), season sum-totals (cumulative unweighted measures), and season sum-totals weighted for time between hits (TBH), the interval of time from hit to post-season DTI assessment (TUA), and both TBH and TUA combined. Summarized helmet-based impact measures were correlated to statistically significant changes in

Tests of Cumulative Prospect Theory with graphical displays of probability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael H. Birnbaum

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Recent research reported evidence that contradicts cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic. The same body of research also violates two editing principles of original prospect theory: cancellation (the principle that people delete any attribute that is the same in both alternatives before deciding between them and combination (the principle that people combine branches leading to the same consequence by adding their probabilities. This study was designed to replicate previous results and to test whether the violations of cumulative prospect theory might be eliminated or reduced by using formats for presentation of risky gambles in which cancellation and combination could be facilitated visually. Contrary to the idea that decision behavior contradicting cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic would be altered by use of these formats, however, data with two new graphical formats as well as fresh replication data continued to show the patterns of evidence that violate cumulative prospect theory, the priority heuristic, and the editing principles of combination and cancellation. Systematic violations of restricted branch independence also contradicted predictions of ``stripped'' prospect theory (subjectively weighted additive utility without the editing rules.

CROSSER - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

Science.gov (United States)

Bowerman, P. N.

1994-01-01

The cumulative binomial program, CROSSER, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), can be used independently of one another. CROSSER can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CROSSER calculates the point at which the reliability of a k-out-of-n system equals the common reliability of the n components. It is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The CROSSER program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CROSSER was developed in 1988.

Modelling temperature-dependent heat production over decades in High Arctic coal waste rock piles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hollesen, Jørgen; Elberling, Bo; Jansson, P.E.

2011-01-01

Subsurface heat production from oxidation of pyrite is an important process that may increase subsurface temperatures within coal waste rock piles and increase the release of acid mine drainage, AMD. Waste rock piles in the Arctic are especially vulnerable to changes in subsurface temperatures...... such as heat production from coal oxidation may be equally important....... as the release of AMD normally is limited by permafrost. Here we show that temperatures within a 20 year old heat-producing waste rock pile in Svalbard (78°N) can be modelled by the one-dimensional heat and water flow model (CoupModel) with a new temperature-dependent heat-production module that includes both...

ICMPv6 RA Flooding Vulnerability Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linas Jočys

2016-06-01

Full Text Available ICMPv6 is the newest version of internet control message protocol, whose main purpose is to send error message indicating packet processing failure. It is know that ICMPv6 is technologically vulnerable. One of those vulnerabilities is the ICMPv6 RA flooding vulnerability, which can lead to systems in Local Area Network slow down or full stop. This paper will discuss Windows (XP, 7, 8.1 and Linux Ubuntu 14 operating systems resistance to RA flooding attack research and countermeasures to minimize this vulnerability.

Assessing vulnerability of urban African communities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karlsson Nyed, Patrik; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Herslund, Lise Byskov

2014-01-01

East African cities are in the process of assessing their vulnerabilities to climate change, but face difficulties in capturing the complexity of the various facets of vulnerability. This holistic approach, captures four different dimensions of vulnerability to flooding - Assets, Institutions......, Attitudes and the Physical environment, with Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, as a case city. The methodology is actively involving the expertise of the stakeholders, and uses GIS to analyze and compile the data. The final output is presented as a comprehensible map, delineating the varying vulnerability...

Vulnerability of health to market forces.

Science.gov (United States)

Brezis, Mayer; Wiist, William H

2011-03-01

This article reviews adverse influences of for-profit enterprises on health care and public health, and examines significance for public policy. Narrative review. For-profit health-care industries may increase costs and reduce quality, leading to market failure and contributing to the USA's unflattering position in international comparisons of health-care efficiency. Drug and device corporations use strategies such as making biased inferences, influencing scientists and physicians, marketing rather than informing the public, and lobbying to control their own industry regulations to create market advantage. Successful marketing leads to the increased use of costly profit-making drugs and procedures over cheaper, nonpatented therapies. Because resources are limited, the overuse of costly modalities contributes to expensive health care, which presents a challenge to universal coverage. The free market also fosters the proliferation of industries, such as tobacco, food, and chemicals, which externalize costs to maximize profits, seek to unduly influence research by paying experts and universities, and attempt to control the media and regulatory agencies. Most vulnerable to the cumulative harm of these tactics are children, the poor, the sick, and the least educated. The free market can harm health and health care. The corporate obligation to increase profits and ensure a return to shareholders affects public health. Such excesses of capitalism pose formidable challenges to social justice and public health. The recognition of the health risks entailed by corporation-controlled markets has important implications for public policy. Reforms are required to limit the power of corporations.

Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrien Querbes

Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

The vulnerability of organic matter in Swiss forest soils

Science.gov (United States)

González Domínguez, Beatriz; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Studer, Mirjam S.; Hagedorn, Frank; Wacker, Lukas; Haghipour, Negar; Zimmermann, Stephan; Walthert, Lorenz; Abiven, Samuel; McIntyre, Cameron

2017-04-01

Soils contain more carbon than atmosphere and terrestrial vegetation combined [1], and thus are key players in the carbon cycle. With climate change, the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool is vulnerable to loss through increased CO2 emissions, which in turn can amplify changes with this carbon feedback [2]. The objective of this study is to investigate the variation of indicators of SOC vulnerability (e.g. SOC mineralisation, turnover time, bulk soil and mineralised 14C signatures) and to evaluate climate, soil and terrain variables as primary drivers. To choose the study locations we used a statistics-based approach to select a balanced combination of 54 forest sites with de-correlated drivers of SOC vulnerability (i.e. proxies for soil temperature and moisture, pH, % clay, slope gradient and orientation). Sites were selected from the forest soil database of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), which in May 2014, contained data from 1,050 soil profiles spread across Switzerland. We re-sampled soils at the 54 locations during summer 2014. With these samples we run a standardized laboratory soil incubation (i.e. 25°C; soils moisture -20kPa; sieved to ≤ 2 mm; 40 g equivalent dry mass; adjusted to 0.8 g cm-3 bulk density) and measured SOC mineralisation on days 4, 13, 30, 63, 121 and 181 by trapping the CO2 evolved from soils in sodium hydroxide traps [3]. Additionally, we measured the 14C signature of the carbon trapped during last stage of the incubation, and compare it to the 14C signature of the bulk soil. Based on the cumulative SOC mineralised, we found that despite the well-studied relationship between climate and SOC dynamics [4], temperature did not emerge as a predictor of SOC vulnerability. In parallel, moisture only had a minor role, with soils from drier sites being the most vulnerable. This indicates a possible limitation of heterotrophic activity due to water shortage. On the other hand, soil pH raised as the driver

Impact of heat stress during seed development on soybean seed metabolome

Science.gov (United States)

Seed development is a temperature-sensitive process that is much more vulnerable than vegetative tissues to abiotic stresses. Climate change is expected to increase the incidence and severity of summer heatwaves, and the impact of heat stress on seed development is expected to become more widespread...

Extreme heat and cultural and linguistic minorities in Australia: perceptions of stakeholders.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Alana; Nitschke, Monika; Saniotis, Arthur; Benson, Jill; Tan, Yan; Smyth, Val; Wilson, Leigh; Han, Gil-Soo; Mwanri, Lillian; Bi, Peng

2014-06-03

Despite acclimatisation to hot weather, many individuals in Australia are adversely affected by extreme heat each summer, placing added pressure on the health sector. In terms of public health, it is therefore important to identify vulnerable groups, particularly in the face of a warming climate. International evidence points to a disparity in heat-susceptibility in certain minority groups, although it is unknown if this occurs in Australia. With cultural diversity increasing, the aim of this study was to explore how migrants from different cultural backgrounds and climate experiences manage periods of extreme heat in Australia. A qualitative study was undertaken across three Australian cities, involving interviews and focus groups with key informants including stakeholders involved in multicultural service provision and community members. Thematic analysis and a framework approach were used to analyse the data. Whilst migrants and refugees generally adapt well upon resettlement, there are sociocultural barriers encountered by some that hinder environmental adaptation to periods of extreme heat in Australia. These barriers include socioeconomic disadvantage and poor housing, language barriers to the access of information, isolation, health issues, cultural factors and lack of acclimatisation. Most often mentioned as being at risk were new arrivals, people in new and emerging communities, and older migrants. With increasing diversity within populations, it is important that the health sector is aware that during periods of extreme heat there may be disparities in the adaptive capacity of minority groups, underpinned by sociocultural and language-based vulnerabilities in migrants and refugees. These factors need to be considered by policymakers when formulating and disseminating heat health strategies.

Family Resources and Effects on Child Behavior Problem Interventions: A Cumulative Risk Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Tømmerås, Truls; Kjøbli, John

2017-01-01

Family resources have been associated with health care inequality in general and with social gradients in treatment outcomes for children with behavior problems. However, there is limited evidence concerning cumulative risk-the accumulation of social and economic disadvantages in a family-and whether cumulative risk moderates the outcomes of evidence-based parent training interventions. We used data from two randomized controlled trials evaluating high-intensity ( n  = 137) and low-intensity ( n  = 216) versions of Parent Management Training-Oregon (PMTO) with a 50:50 allocation between participants receiving PMTO interventions or regular care. A nine-item family cumulative risk index tapping socioeconomic resources and parental health was constructed to assess the family's exposure to risk. Autoregressive structured equation models (SEM) were run to investigate whether cumulative risk moderated child behaviors at post-treatment and follow-up (6 months). Our results showed opposite social gradients for the treatment conditions: the children exposed to cumulative risk in a pooled sample of both PMTO groups displayed lower levels of behavior problems, whereas children with identical risk exposures who received regular care experienced more problems. Furthermore, our results indicated that the social gradients differed between PMTO interventions: children exposed to cumulative risk in the low-intensity (five sessions) Brief Parent Training fared equally well as their high-resource counterparts, whereas children exposed to cumulative risk in the high-intensity PMTO (12 sessions) experienced vastly better treatment effects. Providing evidence-based parent training seem to be an effective way to counteract health care inequality, and the more intensive PMTO treatment seemed to be a particularly effective way to help families with cumulative risk.

The impact of heat waves on surface urban heat island and local economy in Cluj-Napoca city, Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Herbel, Ioana; Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Rus, Adina Viorica; Roşca, Cristina Florina; Harpa, Gabriela Victoria; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Rus, Ionuţ

2017-07-01

The association between heat waves and the urban heat island effect can increase the impact on environment and society inducing biophysical hazards. Heat stress and their associated public health problems are among the most frequent. This paper explores the heat waves impact on surface urban heat island and on the local economy loss during three heat periods in Cluj-Napoca city in the summer of 2015. The heat wave events were identified based on daily maximum temperature, and they were divided into three classes considering the intensity threshold: moderate heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile), severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature over the 95th percentile), and extremely severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 98th percentile). The minimum length of an event was of minimum three consecutive days. The surface urban heat island was detected based on land surface temperature derived from Landsat 8 thermal infrared data, while the economic impact was estimated based on data on work force structure and work productivity in Cluj-Napoca derived from the data released by Eurostat, National Bank of Romania, and National Institute of Statistics. The results indicate that the intensity and spatial extension of surface urban heat island could be governed by the magnitude of the heat wave event, but due to the low number of satellite images available, we should consider this information only as preliminary results. Thermal infrared remote sensing has proven to be a very efficient method to study surface urban heat island, due to the fact that the synoptic conditions associated with heat wave events usually favor cloud free image. The resolution of the OLI_TIRS sensor provided good results for a mid-extension city, but the low revisiting time is still a drawback. The potential economic loss was calculated for the working days during heat waves and the estimated loss reached more than 2.5 mil. EUR for each heat wave day

Motherhood, Marketization, and Consumer Vulnerability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davies, Andrea; Prothero, Andrea; Sørensen, Elin

2010-01-01

This article explores consumer vulnerability and the role of public policy by focusing on new mothers. Developing the consumer vulnerability model of Baker, Gentry, and Rittenburg, the authors consider how medical contexts, political and legal factors, economic resources, societal prescriptions...... a time of physical and psychological changes in mothers-to-be. This article illustrates that the extended market logic dominating contemporary mothering environments both contributes to and has the potential to exacerbate new mothers’ vulnerability, raising important challenges for public policy, both...

Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

Science.gov (United States)

Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

2015-04-01

vulnerability. Based on the projection models for the area, average temperature in Jordan is projected to increase between 1.2 and 1.6°C by 2050. These upward temperature trends are projected to continue beyond 2050. Projections for precipitation trends are projected to decrease by 16% by the year 2050. Evaporation is likely to increase due to higher temperatures. This is likely to increase the incidence of drought potential since precipitation is projected to decrease. It is concluded that the Overall vulnerability of agriculture to climate change in Jordan is high, where impacts such as drought and increased temperatures and decreased precipitation will be more pronounced. Major implications on rain fed agriculture are possible shorter growing season, increasing moisture and heat stress to field and horticultural crops and eventually low income and food insecurity. There were different impacts among studied communities, which is related to the: economic capability, local knowledge, physical infrastructure, institutional capacity, modern technology used, age group of farmers and diversification of their income.

Legal physician-assisted dying in Oregon and the Netherlands: evidence concerning the impact on patients in "vulnerable" groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Battin, Margaret P; van der Heide, Agnes; Ganzini, Linda; van der Wal, Gerrit; Onwuteaka-Philipsen, Bregje D

2007-10-01

Debates over legalisation of physician-assisted suicide (PAS) or euthanasia often warn of a "slippery slope", predicting abuse of people in vulnerable groups. To assess this concern, the authors examined data from Oregon and the Netherlands, the two principal jurisdictions in which physician-assisted dying is legal and data have been collected over a substantial period. The data from Oregon (where PAS, now called death under the Oregon Death with Dignity Act, is legal) comprised all annual and cumulative Department of Human Services reports 1998-2006 and three independent studies; the data from the Netherlands (where both PAS and euthanasia are now legal) comprised all four government-commissioned nationwide studies of end-of-life decision making (1990, 1995, 2001 and 2005) and specialised studies. Evidence of any disproportionate impact on 10 groups of potentially vulnerable patients was sought. Rates of assisted dying in Oregon and in the Netherlands showed no evidence of heightened risk for the elderly, women, the uninsured (inapplicable in the Netherlands, where all are insured), people with low educational status, the poor, the physically disabled or chronically ill, minors, people with psychiatric illnesses including depression, or racial or ethnic minorities, compared with background populations. The only group with a heightened risk was people with AIDS. While extralegal cases were not the focus of this study, none have been uncovered in Oregon; among extralegal cases in the Netherlands, there was no evidence of higher rates in vulnerable groups. Where assisted dying is already legal, there is no current evidence for the claim that legalised PAS or euthanasia will have disproportionate impact on patients in vulnerable groups. Those who received physician-assisted dying in the jurisdictions studied appeared to enjoy comparative social, economic, educational, professional and other privileges.

Groundwater vulnerability mapping of Qatar aquifers

Science.gov (United States)

Baalousha, Husam Musa

2016-12-01

Qatar is one of the most arid countries in the world with limited water resources. With little rainfall and no surface water, groundwater is the only natural source of fresh water in the country. Whilst the country relies mainly on desalination of seawater to secure water supply, groundwater has extensively been used for irrigation over the last three decades, which caused adverse environmental impact. Vulnerability assessment is a widely used tool for groundwater protection and land-use management. Aquifers in Qatar are carbonate with lots of fractures, depressions and cavities. Karst aquifers are generally more vulnerable to contamination than other aquifers as any anthropogenic-sourced contaminant, especially above a highly fractured zone, can infiltrate quickly into the aquifer and spread over a wide area. The vulnerability assessment method presented in this study is based on two approaches: DRASTIC and EPIK, within the framework of Geographical Information System (GIS). Results of this study show that DRASTIC vulnerability method suits Qatar hydrogeological settings more than EPIK. The produced vulnerability map using DRASTIC shows coastal and karst areas have the highest vulnerability class. The southern part of the country is located in the low vulnerability class due to occurrence of shale formation within aquifer media, which averts downward movement of contaminants.

A pragmatic analysis of vulnerability in clinical research.

Science.gov (United States)

Wendler, David

2017-09-01

Identifying which subjects are vulnerable, and implementing safeguards to protect them, is widely regarded as essential to clinical research. Commentators have endorsed a number of responses to these challenges and have thereby made significant progress in understanding vulnerability in clinical research. At the same time, this literature points to a central contradiction which calls into question its potential to protect vulnerable subjects in practice. Specifically, analysis suggests that all human subjects are vulnerable and vulnerability in clinical research is comparative and context dependent, in the sense that individuals are vulnerable relative to others and in some contexts only. Yet, if everyone is vulnerable, there seems to be no point in citing the vulnerability of some individuals. Moreover, the conclusion that everyone is vulnerable seems inconsistent with the claims that vulnerability is comparative and context dependent, raising concern over whether it will be possible to develop a comprehensive account of vulnerability that is internally consistent. The solution to this dilemma lies in recognition of the fact that the practical significance of claims regarding vulnerability depends on the context in which they are used. The claims that appear to lead to the central contradiction are in fact accurate conclusions that follow from different uses of the term 'vulnerability'. The present manuscript describes this 'pragmatic' approach to vulnerability in clinical research and considers its implications for ensuring that subjects receive appropriate protection. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Not the usual suspects: addressing layers of vulnerability.

Science.gov (United States)

Luna, Florencia; Vanderpoel, Sheryl

2013-07-01

This paper challenges the traditional account of vulnerability in healthcare which conceptualizes vulnerability as a list of identifiable subpopulations. This list of 'usual suspects', focusing on groups from lower resource settings, is a narrow account of vulnerability. In this article we argue that in certain circumstances middle-class individuals can be also rendered vulnerable. We propose a relational and layered account of vulnerability and explore this concept using the case study of cord blood (CB) banking. In the first section, two different approaches to 'vulnerability' are contrasted: categorical versus layered. In the second section, we describe CB banking and present a case study of CB banking in Argentina. We examine the types of pressure that middle-class pregnant women feel when considering CB collection and storage. In section three, we use the CB banking case study to critique the categorical approach to vulnerability: this model is unable to account for the ways in which these women are vulnerable. A layered account of vulnerability identifies several ways in which middle-class women are vulnerable. Finally, by utilizing the layered approach, this paper suggests how public health policies could be designed to overcome vulnerabilities. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Interactions between bubble formation and heating surface in nucleate boiling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luke, Andrea

2009-01-01

The heat transfer and bubble formation is investigated in pool boiling of propane. Size distributions of active nucleation sites on single horizontal copper and steel tubes with different diameter and surface finishes have been calculated from heat transfer measurements over wide ranges of heat flux and selected pressure. The model assumptions of Luke and Gorenflo for the heat transfer near growing and departing bubbles, which were applied in the calculations, have been slightly modified and the calculated results have been compared to experimental investigations by high speed video techniques. The calculated number of active sites shows a good coincidence for the tube with smaller diameter, while the results for the tube with larger diameter describe the same relative increase of the active sites. The comparison of the cumulative size distribution of the active and potential nucleation sites demonstrates the same slope of the curve and that the critical radius of a stable bubble nuclei is smaller than the average cavity size. (author)

Interactions between bubble formation and heating surface in nucleate boiling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luke, Andrea [Leibniz University, Hannover (Denmark). Inst. of Thermodynamics], e-mail: ift@ift.uni-hannover.de

2009-07-01

The heat transfer and bubble formation is investigated in pool boiling of propane. Size distributions of active nucleation sites on single horizontal copper and steel tubes with different diameter and surface finishes have been calculated from heat transfer measurements over wide ranges of heat flux and selected pressure. The model assumptions of Luke and Gorenflo for the heat transfer near growing and departing bubbles, which were applied in the calculations, have been slightly modified and the calculated results have been compared to experimental investigations by high speed video techniques. The calculated number of active sites shows a good coincidence for the tube with smaller diameter, while the results for the tube with larger diameter describe the same relative increase of the active sites. The comparison of the cumulative size distribution of the active and potential nucleation sites demonstrates the same slope of the curve and that the critical radius of a stable bubble nuclei is smaller than the average cavity size. (author)

Managing energy vulnerability and resilience for rural communities in Northern Denmark by means of energy atlases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Möller, Bernd

Denmark has targets of developing a 100% renewable energy supply within the next 4 decades, while the country is facing polarization between urban areas and the rural countryside. Energy vulnerability develops as low income groups move to areas with poor building stock and no access to collective...... heat supply. With little room for extending mortgage, investments in added insulation or efficient heating technology become less affordable. About a quarter of the Danish population lives in rural areas where energy efficient heat supply and low-energy buildings are outside reach. Typical current...... problems are high energy costs, which contribute to the unattractiveness of rural areas, driven by centralization and the dismantling of public infrastructure. On the other hand, most renewable energy sources like wind and biomass are located in rural areas, where they could create resilience: income, jobs...

Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

2018-06-01

Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implementation evaluation of the Dutch national heat plan among long-term care institutions in Amsterdam: a cross-sectional study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kunst, Anton E.; Britstra, Rieneke

2013-01-01

In 2007, a national heat plan was introduced in the Netherlands to effectively protect vulnerable populations (such as institutionalised elderly people) against heatwaves. The aim of this study was to assess the extent to which the measures recommended in this heat plan had been implemented, and

Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Kaplan, Isaac C

2016-01-01

Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill-Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod-Limacina helicina, pink shrimp-Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab-Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake-Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species' vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.

Transmission fidelity is the key to the build-up of cumulative culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Hannah M; Laland, Kevin N

2012-08-05

Many animals have socially transmitted behavioural traditions, but human culture appears unique in that it is cumulative, i.e. human cultural traits increase in diversity and complexity over time. It is often suggested that high-fidelity cultural transmission is necessary for cumulative culture to occur through refinement, a process known as 'ratcheting', but this hypothesis has never been formally evaluated. We discuss processes of information transmission and loss of traits from a cognitive viewpoint alongside other cultural processes of novel invention (generation of entirely new traits), modification (refinement of existing traits) and combination (bringing together two established traits to generate a new trait). We develop a simple cultural transmission model that does not assume major evolutionary changes (e.g. in brain architecture) and show that small changes in the fidelity with which information is passed between individuals can lead to cumulative culture. In comparison, modification and combination have a lesser influence on, and novel invention appears unimportant to, the ratcheting process. Our findings support the idea that high-fidelity transmission is the key driver of human cumulative culture, and that progress in cumulative culture depends more on trait combination than novel invention or trait modification.

A paradox of cumulative culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Yutaka; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

2015-08-21

Culture can grow cumulatively if socially learnt behaviors are improved by individual learning before being passed on to the next generation. Previous authors showed that this kind of learning strategy is unlikely to be evolutionarily stable in the presence of a trade-off between learning and reproduction. This is because culture is a public good that is freely exploited by any member of the population in their model (cultural social dilemma). In this paper, we investigate the effect of vertical transmission (transmission from parents to offspring), which decreases the publicness of culture, on the evolution of cumulative culture in both infinite and finite population models. In the infinite population model, we confirm that culture accumulates largely as long as transmission is purely vertical. It turns out, however, that introduction of even slight oblique transmission drastically reduces the equilibrium level of culture. Even more surprisingly, if the population size is finite, culture hardly accumulates even under purely vertical transmission. This occurs because stochastic extinction due to random genetic drift prevents a learning strategy from accumulating enough culture. Overall, our theoretical results suggest that introducing vertical transmission alone does not really help solve the cultural social dilemma problem. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Countermeasures to Neurobehavioral Deficits from Cumulative Partial Sleep Deprivation During Space Flight

Science.gov (United States)

Dinges, David F.

1999-01-01

This project is concerned with identifying ways to prevent neurobehavioral and physical deterioration due to inadequate sleep in astronauts during long-duration manned space flight. The performance capability of astronauts during extended-duration space flight depends heavily on achieving recovery through adequate sleep. Even with appropriate circadian alignment, sleep loss can erode fundamental elements of human performance capability including vigilance, cognitive speed and accuracy, working memory, reaction time, and physiological alertness. Adequate sleep is essential during manned space flight not only to ensure high levels of safe and effective human performance, but also as a basic regulatory biology critical to healthy human functioning. There is now extensive objective evidence that astronaut sleep is frequently restricted in space flight to averages between 4 hr and 6.5 hr/day. Chronic sleep restriction during manned space flight can occur in response to endogenous disturbances of sleep (motion sickness, stress, circadian rhythms), environmental disruptions of sleep (noise, temperature, light), and curtailment of sleep due to the work demands and other activities that accompany extended space flight operations. The mechanism through which this risk emerges is the development of cumulative homeostatic pressure for sleep across consecutive days of inadequate sleep. Research has shown that the physiological sleepiness and performance deficits engendered by sleep debt can progressively worsen (i.e., accumulate) over consecutive days of sleep restriction, and that sleep limited to levels commonly experienced by astronauts (i.e., 4 - 6 hr per night) for as little as 1 week, can result in increased lapses of attention, degradation of response times, deficits in complex problem solving, reduced learning, mood disturbance, disruption of essential neuroendocrine, metabolic, and neuroimmune responses, and in some vulnerable persons, the emergence of uncontrolled

Structure functions and particle production in the cumulative region: two different exponentials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braun, M.; Vechernin, V.

1997-01-01

In the framework of the recently proposed (QCD-based parton model for the cumulative phenomena in the interactions with nuclei two mechanisms for particle production, direct and spectator ones, are analyzed. It is shown that due to final-state interactions the leading terms of the direct mechanism contribution are cancelled and the spectator mechanism is the dominant one. It leads to a smaller slope of the cumulative particle production rates compared to the slope of the nuclear structure function in the cumulative region x ≥ 1, in agreement with the recent experimental data

Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

2017-11-01

Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time.

Science.gov (United States)

Hopper, Thomas; Meixler, Marcia S

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time

Methyl CpG level at distal part of heat-shock protein promoter HSP70 exhibits epigenetic memory for heat stress by modulating recruitment of POU2F1-associated nucleosome-remodeling deacetylase (NuRD) complex.

Science.gov (United States)

Kisliouk, Tatiana; Cramer, Tomer; Meiri, Noam

2017-05-01

Depending on its stringency, exposure to heat in early life leads to either resilience or vulnerability to heat stress later in life. We hypothesized that epigenetic alterations in genes belonging to the cell proteostasis pathways are attributed to long-term responses to heat stress. Epigenetic regulation of the mRNA expression of the molecular chaperone heat-shock protein (HSP) 70 (HSPA2) was evaluated in the chick hypothalamus during the critical period of thermal-control establishment on day 3 post-hatch and during heat challenge on day 10. Both the level and duration of HSP70 expression during heat challenge a week after heat conditioning were more pronounced in chicks conditioned under harsh versus mild temperature. Analyzing different segments of the promoter in vitro indicated that methylation of a distal part altered its transcriptional activity. In parallel, DNA-methylation level of this segment in vivo was higher in harsh- compared to mild-heat-conditioned chicks. Hypermethylation of the HSP70 promoter in high-temperature-conditioned chicks was accompanied by a reduction in both POU Class 2 Homeobox 1 (POU2F1) binding and recruitment of the nucleosome remodeling deacetylase (NuRD) chromatin-remodeling complex. As a result, histone H3 acetylation levels at the HSP70 promoter were higher in harsh-temperature-conditioned chicks than in their mild-heat-conditioned counterparts. These results suggest that methylation level of a distal part of the HSP70 promoter and POU2F1 recruitment may reflect heat-stress-related epigenetic memory and may be useful in differentiating between individuals that are resilient or vulnerable to stress. © 2017 International Society for Neurochemistry.

Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Querbes, A.; Vaesen, K.; Houkes, W.N.

2014-01-01

Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological

Fragmentation of tensor polarized deuterons into cumulative pions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afanas'ev, S.; Arkhipov, V.; Bondarev, V.

1998-01-01

The tensor analyzing power T 20 of the reaction d polarized + A → π - (0 0 ) + X has been measured in the fragmentation of 9 GeV tensor polarized deuterons into pions with momenta from 3.5 to 5.3 GeV/c on hydrogen, beryllium and carbon targets. This kinematic range corresponds to the region of cumulative hadron production with the cumulative variable x c from 1.08 to 1.76. The values of T 20 have been found to be small and consistent with positive values. This contradicts the predictions based on a direct mechanism assuming NN collision between a high momentum nucleon in the deuteron and a target nucleon (NN → NNπ)

Cumulative incidence, distribution, and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure in Nepal: results from the living standards survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghimire, Mamata; Ayer, Rakesh; Kondo, Masahide

2018-02-14

Nepal has committed to the global community to achieve universal health coverage by 2030. Nevertheless, Nepal still has a high proportion of out-of-pocket health payment and a limited risk-pooling mechanism. Out-of-pocket payment for the healthcare services could result in catastrophic health expenditure (CHE). Evidence is required to effectively channel the efforts to lower those expenses in order to achieve universal health coverage. However, little is known about CHE and its determinants in a broad national context in Nepal. Therefore, this study was conducted to explore the cumulative incidence, distribution, and determinants of CHE in Nepal. Data were obtained from the nationally representative survey, the Nepal Living Standards Survey-third undertaken in 2010/11. Information from 5988 households was used for the analyses. Households were classified as having CHE when their out-of-pocket health payment was greater than or equal to 40% of their capacity to pay. Remaining households were classified as not having CHE. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify determinants of CHE. Based on household-weighted sample, the cumulative incidence of CHE was 10.3% per month in Nepal. This incidence was concentrated in the far-western region and households in the poorer expenditure quartiles. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that households were more likely to face CHE if they; consisted of chronically ill member(s), have a higher burden of acute illness and injuries, have elderly (≥60 years) member(s), belonged to the poor expenditure quartile, and were located in the far-western region. In contrast, households were less likely to incur CHE when their household head was educated. Having children (≤5 years) in households did not significantly affect catastrophic health expenditure. This study identified a high cumulative incidence of CHE. CHE was disproportionately concentrated in the poor households and households located in the far

A vulnerability-centric requirements engineering framework : Analyzing security attacks, countermeasures, and requirements based on vulnerabilities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elahi, G.; Yu, E.; Zannone, N.

2010-01-01

Many security breaches occur because of exploitation of vulnerabilities within the system. Vulnerabilities are weaknesses in the requirements, design, and implementation, which attackers exploit to compromise the system. This paper proposes a methodological framework for security requirements

Thermotolerance and responses to short duration heat stress in tropical and temperate species

Science.gov (United States)

Marias, D.; Meinzer, F. C.; Still, C. J.

2017-12-01

Temperature and heat waves are predicted to increase throughout the 21st century in both tropical and temperate regions. Tropical species are vulnerable to heat stress because of the higher radiation load and the narrower distribution of temperatures typically experienced compared to extratropical species. Germinant seedlings are also vulnerable to heat stress because they inhabit the boundary layer close to the soil surface where intense heating occurs. We quantified the effect of leaf age and heat stress duration (45 min, 90 min) on leaf thermotolerance and whole plant physiological responses to heat stress in Coffea arabica (COAR) saplings. We also evaluated leaf thermotolerance and whole plant responses to heat stress of seedlings in two populations each of Pinus ponderosa (PIPO) and Pseudotsuga menziesii (PSME) from contrasting climates. Thermotolerance of detached leaves/needles was evaluated using chlorophyll fluorescence (FV/FM, FO) and electrolyte leakage. After exposure of whole plants to a simulated heat wave in a growth chamber, we monitored FV/FM, photosynthesis (A), stomatal conductance (gs), non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs), and carbon isotope ratios (δ13C). In COAR, thermotolerance and rate of recovery increased with leaf age. Following heat treatment, reductions in A and gs led to reduced intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) and increased leaf temperatures. NSC results suggested that starch was converted to sugars for recovery from heat stress and phloem transport was inhibited. Plants failed to flower in both heat stress duration treatments. In PIPO and PSME, heat treatment induced significant reductions in FV/FM and A. NSC results suggested that starch was converted to glucose + fructose to aid recovery from heat-induced damage. Populations from drier sites had greater δ13C values than those from wetter sites, consistent with higher iWUE of populations from drier climates. Thermotolerance and heat stress responses appeared to be

The impact of vessel size on vulnerability curves: data and models for within-species variability in saplings of aspen, Populus tremuloides Michx.

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Jing; Tyree, Melvin T

2010-07-01

The objective of this study was to quantify the relationship between vulnerability to cavitation and vessel diameter within a species. We measured vulnerability curves (VCs: percentage loss hydraulic conductivity versus tension) in aspen stems and measured vessel-size distributions. Measurements were done on seed-grown, 4-month-old aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) grown in a greenhouse. VCs of stem segments were measured using a centrifuge technique and by a staining technique that allowed a VC to be constructed based on vessel diameter size-classes (D). Vessel-based VCs were also fitted to Weibull cumulative distribution functions (CDF), which provided best-fit values of Weibull CDF constants (c and b) and P(50) = the tension causing 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity. We show that P(50) = 6.166D(-0.3134) (R(2) = 0.995) and that b and 1/c are both linear functions of D with R(2) > 0.95. The results are discussed in terms of models of VCs based on vessel D size-classes and in terms of concepts such as the 'pit area hypothesis' and vessel pathway redundancy.

Cumulative watershed effects: a research perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie M. Reid; Robert R. Ziemer

1989-01-01

A cumulative watershed effect (CWE) is any response to multiple land-use activities that is caused by, or results in, altered watershed function. The CWE issue is politically defined, as is the significance of particular impacts. But the processes generating CWEs are the traditional focus of geomorphology and ecology, and have thus been studied for decades. The CWE...

A measure of vulnerability and damage tolerance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lind, Niels C.

1995-01-01

The purpose of the paper is to present probabilistic definitions of 'vulnerability' and 'damage tolerance'. A new measure of damage is also proposed. Disastrous failures, such as of the Titanic or the Chernobyl reactor, have revealed that some systems can be highly vulnerable. A seemingly insignificant damage can reduce such a system's resistance severely. Attempts to write design code requirements for damage tolerance or structural integrity have not been successful so far. One reason is that these ideas have not been defined with the necessary precision. The suggested definitions aim to be general, applicable to all engineered systems, and readily specializable to particular system types. Vulnerability is defined as the ratio of the failure probability of the damaged system to the failure probability of the undamaged system. It is argued that 'vulnerability' and 'damage tolerance' are complementary concepts. Damage tolerance is defined as the reciprocal of vulnerability. Vulnerability and damage tolerance both concern hypothetical future damage. A damage factor, applicable for the analysis of an existing structure in an assessed state of damage, is defined analogous to vulnerability. Application is illustrated by examples

Design of Low-Energy District Heating System for a Settlement with Low-Energy Buildings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tol, Hakan; Svendsen, Svend

2011-01-01

of 55 °C and 25 °C in supply and return line of DH network, respectively with a convenient control of in-house installations (substations). Traditional DH pipe dimensioning methods were based on size searching algorithm in which lowest possible pipe diameter was defined according to the limit of max...... simultaneity of heat load, according to the cumulative consumer load, on each pipe segment separately. According to the traditional dimensioning method, 14% reduction in the heat loss was achieved with the developed optimization method. The resultant pipe dimensions were evaluated via hydraulic and thermal...

Assessing the Security Vulnerabilities of Correctional Facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morrison, G.S.; Spencer, D.S.

1998-10-27

The National Institute of Justice has tasked their Satellite Facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps to identi~ the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion fi-om outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees, In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these initial assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.

Drug abuse: vulnerability and transition to addiction.

Science.gov (United States)

Le Moal, M

2009-05-01

Intrinsic vulnerability is central to the transition of recreational drug use to misuse. Several factors contribute to vulnerability, inherent or acquired, and they account for the huge individual differences observed concerning the propensity to enter in the addiction process. Some of the multifactional causes for a vulnerable phenotype will be examined: genetic factors, age and gender influences, various comorbidities and epidemiological observations. Stress-induced vulnerability will be particularly reviewed because it provides a good model for a pathophysiological research and for relating environmental events to biological consequences of drug vulnerability, namely through the striato-cortical dopamine system. Experimental studies are generally blind concerning these historical factors that contribute vulnerability and a critical evaluation of current animal models is needed. The transition of the last stage of the process, addiction, is conceptualized as a progression from homeostasis to allostasis and then, to pathology.

Energy saving and emission reduction of China's urban district heating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Xia; Wang, Li; Tong, Lige; Sun, Shufeng; Yue, Xianfang; Yin, Shaowu; Zheng, Lifang

2013-01-01

China's carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission ranks highest in the world. China is committed to reduce its CO 2 emission by 40% to 45% from the 2005 levels by 2020. To fulfill the target, China's CO 2 emission reduction must exceed 6995 million tons. Energy consumption and CO 2 emission of China's urban district heating (UDH) are increasing. The current policy implemented to improve UDH focuses on replacing coal with natural gas to reduce energy consumption and CO 2 emission to some extent. This paper proposes that heat pump heating (HPH) could serve as a replacement for UDH to help realize energy-saving and emission-reduction goals to a greater extent. The paper also analyzes the impact of this replacement on the heating and power generation sectors. The results show that replacing coal-based UDH with HPH decreases energy consumption and CO 2 emission by 43% in the heating sector. In the power generation sector, the efficiency of power generation at the valley electricity time increases by 0.512%, and the ratio of peak–valley difference decreases by 16.5%. The decreases in CO 2 emission from the heating and power generation sectors cumulatively account for 5.55% of China's total CO 2 emission reduction target in 2020. - Highlights: ► Replacing urban district heating with heat pump heating. ► Impact of heat pump heating on heating and power generation sectors. ► Potential of energy saving and emission reduction for heat pump heating. ► China should adjust current urban heating strategy

Cumulative second-harmonic generation of Lamb waves propagating in a two-layered solid plate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiang Yanxun; Deng Mingxi

2008-01-01

The physical process of cumulative second-harmonic generation of Lamb waves propagating in a two-layered solid plate is presented by using the second-order perturbation and the technique of nonlinear reflection of acoustic waves at an interface. In general, the cumulative second-harmonic generation of a dispersive guided wave propagation does not occur. However, the present paper shows that the second-harmonic of Lamb wave propagation arising from the nonlinear interaction of the partial bulk acoustic waves and the restriction of the three boundaries of the solid plates does have a cumulative growth effect if some conditions are satisfied. Through boundary condition and initial condition of excitation, the analytical expression of cumulative second-harmonic of Lamb waves propagation is determined. Numerical results show the cumulative effect of Lamb waves on second-harmonic field patterns. (classical areas of phenomenology)

Steps and pips in the history of the cumulative recorder.

OpenAIRE

Lattal, Kennon A

2004-01-01

From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This review traces the evolution of the cumulative recorder from Skinner's early modified kymographs through various models developed by Skinner and his co...

Mapping heat wave risk in the UK: Proactive planning for the 2050s

Science.gov (United States)

Oven, Katie; Reaney, Sim; Ohlemüller, Ralf; Nodwell, Sarah; Curtis, Sarah; Riva, Mylène; Dunn, Christine; Val, Dimitri; Burkhard, Roland

2010-05-01

Climate change projections suggest an increased frequency of heat waves in the UK over the coming decades. Such extreme events pose a serious threat to human health and are likely to impact upon health and social care systems and the infrastructures supporting them. This stress will result from both increased demands upon healthcare services and the ability of the infrastructure to cope, such as sufficient climate control in hospitals. Certain sectors of the population, such as older people, have an increased susceptibility to heat waves and hence are the focus of this research. There is no universal definition of a heat wave, reflecting the acclimatisation of a population. Based on a review of the literature, this research therefore sets out a series of working definitions of a heat wave in the UK context from a human health perspective. Drawing on these definitions, the UK heat wave hazard was mapped for the 2050s (2040-2069) using daily minimum and maximum temperature data derived from the UKCP09 Weather Generator at 50 km resolution. The analysis was undertaken for the three different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios within UKCP09 (low, medium and high). Hot spots of increased heat wave risk were identified and comparisons made between the various model outputs. These data were then combined with demographic forecasts for the 2050s enabling the identification of areas with an ageing population. Results are presented showing the scale of the projected change in heat wave risk across the UK and the location of older people. These results will be used in proactive planning to help policymakers and practitioners respond more appropriately to the needs of vulnerable populations in the coming decades. Key words: climate change; heat wave; risk mapping; vulnerability; risk reduction.

Safeguard Vulnerability Analysis Program (SVAP)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilman, F.M.; Dittmore, M.H.; Orvis, W.J.; Wahler, P.S.

1980-01-01

This report gives an overview of the Safeguard Vulnerability Analysis Program (SVAP) developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. SVAP was designed as an automated method of analyzing the safeguard systems at nuclear facilities for vulnerabilities relating to the theft or diversion of nuclear materials. SVAP addresses one class of safeguard threat: theft or diversion of nuclear materials by nonviolent insiders, acting individually or in collusion. SVAP is a user-oriented tool which uses an interactive input medium for preprocessing the large amounts of safeguards data. Its output includes concise summary data as well as detailed vulnerability information

Extreme heat and cultural and linguistic minorities in Australia: perceptions of stakeholders

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Despite acclimatisation to hot weather, many individuals in Australia are adversely affected by extreme heat each summer, placing added pressure on the health sector. In terms of public health, it is therefore important to identify vulnerable groups, particularly in the face of a warming climate. International evidence points to a disparity in heat-susceptibility in certain minority groups, although it is unknown if this occurs in Australia. With cultural diversity increasing, the aim of this study was to explore how migrants from different cultural backgrounds and climate experiences manage periods of extreme heat in Australia. Methods A qualitative study was undertaken across three Australian cities, involving interviews and focus groups with key informants including stakeholders involved in multicultural service provision and community members. Thematic analysis and a framework approach were used to analyse the data. Results Whilst migrants and refugees generally adapt well upon resettlement, there are sociocultural barriers encountered by some that hinder environmental adaptation to periods of extreme heat in Australia. These barriers include socioeconomic disadvantage and poor housing, language barriers to the access of information, isolation, health issues, cultural factors and lack of acclimatisation. Most often mentioned as being at risk were new arrivals, people in new and emerging communities, and older migrants. Conclusions With increasing diversity within populations, it is important that the health sector is aware that during periods of extreme heat there may be disparities in the adaptive capacity of minority groups, underpinned by sociocultural and language-based vulnerabilities in migrants and refugees. These factors need to be considered by policymakers when formulating and disseminating heat health strategies. PMID:24889099

Vulnerability of multiple-barrier systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lind, N.C.

1996-01-01

'Vulnerability' is defined as the ratio of the probability of failure of a damaged system to the probability of failure of the undamaged system. This definition applies to all engineered systems and can be specialized to particular system types. Some disastrous failures (e.g., Chernobyl) have shown that systems can be highly vulnerable. open-quotes Defense in depthclose quotes is a powerful design principle, reducing vulnerability when the consequences of failure can be catastrophic. In the nuclear industry, defense in depth is widely used in radiation protection, reactor control, and shutdown systems. A multiple-barrier system is a simple example of a system that has defense in depth. The idea is that the system is not vulnerable. It cannot fail if one barrier fails because there is another to take its place. This idea is untenable in waste management, but a quantified vulnerability of a system can help owners, designers, and regulators decide how much defense in depth is desirable or enough. Many multiple-barrier systems can be modeled as systems of components physically in a series, each individually able to prevent failure. Components typically have bimodal distributions of the service time to failure, as illustrated by an example of application to a hypothetical nuclear fuel waste repository

Fluctuation between grandiose and vulnerable narcissism.

Science.gov (United States)

Gore, Whitney L; Widiger, Thomas A

2016-10-01

Current literature on narcissistic personality disorder has emphasized a distinction between grandiose and vulnerable narcissism. Some researchers have further suggested that narcissistic persons fluctuate between grandiose and vulnerable narcissism. However, this perception has been confined largely to clinical experience with no systematic research testing the hypothesis. Clinicians and clinical psychology professors in the current study identified 143 persons who fit a description of either a grandiose or a vulnerable narcissist and indicated the extent to which these persons ever demonstrated traits of the complementary variant. The results supported the fluctuation hypothesis, particularly for episodes of vulnerable narcissism in persons identified as a grandiose narcissist. Correlations of the grandiose and vulnerable narcissism traits with a brief five-factor model measure corroborated past trait descriptions of the 2 respective variants of narcissism. The results of the current study are compared with existing cross-sectional and longitudinal research, and suggestions for future research are provided. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Abel, Guy J.

2018-01-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability. PMID:29707262

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J; Abel, Guy J

2017-05-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate-migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

Methods to Secure Databases Against Vulnerabilities

Science.gov (United States)

2015-12-01

for several languages such as C, C++, PHP, Java and Python [16]. MySQL will work well with very large databases. The documentation references...using Eclipse and connected to each database management system using Python and Java drivers provided by MySQL , MongoDB, and Datastax (for Cassandra...tiers in Python and Java . Problem MySQL MongoDB Cassandra 1. Injection a. Tautologies Vulnerable Vulnerable Not Vulnerable b. Illegal query

Determining Vulnerability Importance in Environmental Impact Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toro, Javier; Duarte, Oscar; Requena, Ignacio; Zamorano, Montserrat

2012-01-01

The concept of vulnerability has been used to describe the susceptibility of physical, biotic, and social systems to harm or hazard. In this sense, it is a tool that reduces the uncertainties of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) since it does not depend exclusively on the value assessments of the evaluator, but rather is based on the environmental state indicators of the site where the projects or activities are being carried out. The concept of vulnerability thus reduces the possibility that evaluators will subjectively interpret results, and be influenced by outside interests and pressures during projects. However, up until now, EIA has been hindered by a lack of effective methods. This research study analyzes the concept of vulnerability, defines Vulnerability Importance and proposes its inclusion in qualitative EIA methodology. The method used to quantify Vulnerability Importance is based on a set of environmental factors and indicators that provide a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. The results obtained in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method since there is a direct relation between this value and the environmental state of the departments analyzed. - Research Highlights: ► The concept of vulnerability could be considered defining Vulnerability Importance included in qualitative EIA methodology. ► The use of the concept of environmental vulnerability could reduce the subjectivity of qualitative methods of EIA. ► A method to quantify the Vulnerability Importance proposed provides a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. ► Results in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method.

An Integrated Cumulative Transformation and Feature Fusion Approach for Bearing Degradation Prognostics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lixiang Duan

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Aimed at degradation prognostics of a rolling bearing, this paper proposed a novel cumulative transformation algorithm for data processing and a feature fusion technique for bearing degradation assessment. First, a cumulative transformation is presented to map the original features extracted from a vibration signal to their respective cumulative forms. The technique not only makes the extracted features show a monotonic trend but also reduces the fluctuation; such properties are more propitious to reflect the bearing degradation trend. Then, a new degradation index system is constructed, which fuses multidimensional cumulative features by kernel principal component analysis (KPCA. Finally, an extreme learning machine model based on phase space reconstruction is proposed to predict the degradation trend. The model performance is experimentally validated with a whole-life experiment of a rolling bearing. The results prove that the proposed method reflects the bearing degradation process clearly and achieves a good balance between model accuracy and complexity.

Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frölicher, Thomas L; Paynter, David J

2015-01-01

The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and nearly independent of the emissions scenario. Here, we use simulations of the Earth System Model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to show that global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.5 °C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2 °C global warming, implying an increase in the coefficient relating global warming to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-centennial timescales. The simulations also suggest a 20% lower quota on cumulative carbon emissions allowed to achieve a policy-driven limit on global warming. ESM estimates from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5–ESMs) qualitatively agree on this result, whereas Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) simulations, used in the IPCC 5th assessment report to assess the robustness of TCRE on multi-centennial timescales, suggest a post-emissions decrease in temperature. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the smaller simulated realized warming fraction in CMIP5–ESMs, including GFDL ESM2M, than in EMICs when carbon emissions increase. The temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different phases and the linear TCRE framework is only valid during the first phase when carbon emissions increase. For longer timescales, when emissions tape off, two new metrics are introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions: the equilibrium climate response to cumulative carbon emissions and the multi-millennial climate response to cumulative carbon emissions. (letter)

Properties of Fission-Product decay heat from Minor-Actinide fissioning systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oyamatsu, Kazuhiro; Mori, Hideki

2000-01-01

The aggregate Fission-Product (FP) decay heat after a pulse fission is examined for Minor Actinide (MA) fissiles 237 Np, 241 Am, 243 Am, 242 Cm and 244 Cm. We find that the MA decay heat is comparable but smaller than that of 235 U except for cooling times at about 10 8 s (approx. = 3 y). At these cooling times, either the β or γ component of the FP decay heat for these MA's is substantially larger than the one for 235 U. This difference is found to originate from the cumulative fission yield of 106 Ru (T 1/2 = 3.2x10 7 s). This nuclide is the parent of 106 Rh (T 1/2 = 29.8 s) which is the dominant source of the decay heat at 10 8 s (approx. = 3 y). The fission yield is nearly an increasing function of the fissile mass number so that the FP decay heat is the largest for 244 Cm among the MA's at the cooling time. (author)

Analysis of Zero-Day Vulnerabilities in Java

OpenAIRE

Marius Popa

2013-01-01

The zero-day vulnerability is a security lack of the computer system that is unknown to software vendor. This kind of vulnerability permits building attack strategies for gaining the access to the resources and data of a computer system. The main issue of the topic is how a computer system can be protected by zero-day vulnerabilities using the actual security procedures and tools for identifying the potential attacks that exploit the vulnerabilities unknown to computer users and software prov...

Assessing environmental vulnerability in EIA-The content and context of the vulnerability concept in an alternative approach to standard EIA procedure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kvaerner, Jens; Swensen, Grete; Erikstad, Lars

2006-01-01

In the traditional EIA procedure environmental vulnerability is only considered to a minor extent in the early stages when project alternatives are worked out. In Norway, an alternative approach to EIA, an integrated vulnerability model (IVM), emphasising environmental vulnerability and alternatives development in the early stages of EIA, has been tried out in a few pilot cases. This paper examines the content and use of the vulnerability concept in the IVM approach, and discusses the concept in an EIA context. The vulnerability concept is best suited to overview analyses and large scale spatial considerations. The concept is particularly useful in the early stages of EIA when alternatives are designed and screened. By introducing analyses of environmental vulnerability at the start of the EIA process, the environment can be a more decisive issue for the creation of project alternatives as well as improving the basis for scoping. Vulnerability and value aspects should be considered as separate dimensions. There is a need to operate with a specification between general and specific vulnerability. The concept of environmental vulnerability has proven useful in a wide range of disciplines. Different disciplines have different lengths of experience regarding vulnerability. In disciplines such as landscape planning and hydrogeology we find elements suitable as cornerstones in the further development of an interdisciplinary methodology. Further development of vulnerability criteria in different disciplines and increased public involvement in the early stages of EIA are recommended

Social vulnerability indicators as a sustainable planning tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yung-Jaan

2014-01-01

In the face of global warming and environmental change, the conventional strategy of resource centralization will not be able to cope with a future of increasingly extreme climate events and related disasters. It may even contribute to inter-regional disparities as a result of these events. To promote sustainable development, this study offers a case study of developmental planning in Chiayi, Taiwan and a review of the relevant literature to propose a framework of social vulnerability indicators at the township level. The proposed framework can not only be used to measure the social vulnerability of individual townships in Chiayi, but also be used to capture the spatial developmental of Chiayi. Seventeen social vulnerability indicators provide information in five dimensions. Owing to limited access to relevant data, the values of only 13 indicators were calculated. By simply summarizing indicators without using weightings and by using zero-mean normalization to standardize the indicators, this study calculates social vulnerability scores for each township. To make social vulnerability indicators more useful, this study performs an overlay analysis of social vulnerability and patterns of risk associated with national disasters. The social vulnerability analysis draws on secondary data for 2012 from Taiwan's National Geographic Information System. The second layer of analysis consists of the flood potential ratings of the Taiwan Water Resources Agency as an index of biophysical vulnerability. The third layer consists of township-level administrative boundaries. Analytical results reveal that four out of the 18 townships in Chiayi not only are vulnerable to large-scale flooding during serious flood events, but also have the highest degree of social vulnerability. Administrative boundaries, on which social vulnerability is based, do not correspond precisely to “cross-administrative boundaries,” which are characteristics of the natural environment. This study adopts

Social vulnerability indicators as a sustainable planning tool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Yung-Jaan, E-mail: yungjaanlee@gmail.com

2014-01-15

In the face of global warming and environmental change, the conventional strategy of resource centralization will not be able to cope with a future of increasingly extreme climate events and related disasters. It may even contribute to inter-regional disparities as a result of these events. To promote sustainable development, this study offers a case study of developmental planning in Chiayi, Taiwan and a review of the relevant literature to propose a framework of social vulnerability indicators at the township level. The proposed framework can not only be used to measure the social vulnerability of individual townships in Chiayi, but also be used to capture the spatial developmental of Chiayi. Seventeen social vulnerability indicators provide information in five dimensions. Owing to limited access to relevant data, the values of only 13 indicators were calculated. By simply summarizing indicators without using weightings and by using zero-mean normalization to standardize the indicators, this study calculates social vulnerability scores for each township. To make social vulnerability indicators more useful, this study performs an overlay analysis of social vulnerability and patterns of risk associated with national disasters. The social vulnerability analysis draws on secondary data for 2012 from Taiwan's National Geographic Information System. The second layer of analysis consists of the flood potential ratings of the Taiwan Water Resources Agency as an index of biophysical vulnerability. The third layer consists of township-level administrative boundaries. Analytical results reveal that four out of the 18 townships in Chiayi not only are vulnerable to large-scale flooding during serious flood events, but also have the highest degree of social vulnerability. Administrative boundaries, on which social vulnerability is based, do not correspond precisely to “cross-administrative boundaries,” which are characteristics of the natural environment. This study

The Scarring Effects of Bankruptcy: Cumulative Disadvantage across Credit and Labor Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Maroto, Michelle

2012-01-01

As the recent economic crisis has demonstrated, inequality often spans credit and labor markets, supporting a system of cumulative disadvantage. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this research draws on stigma, cumulative disadvantage and status characteristics theories to examine whether credit and labor markets intersect…

Vulnerability of shortgrass prairie bird assemblages to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Skagen, Susan K.; Dreitz, Victoria; Conrey, Reesa Y.; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.; Knuffman, Lekha

2016-01-01

The habitats and resources needed to support grassland birds endemic to North American prairie ecosystems are seriously threatened by impending climate change. To assess the vulnerability of grassland birds to climate change, we consider various components of vulnerability, including sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity (Glick et al. 2011). Sensitivity encompasses the innate characteristics of a species and, in this context, is related to a species’ tolerance to changes in weather patterns. Groundnesting birds, including prairie birds, are particularly responsive to heat waves combined with drought conditions, as revealed by abundance and distribution patterns (Albright et al. 2010). To further assess sensitivity, we estimated reproductive parameters of nearly 3000 breeding attempts of a suite of prairie birds relative to prevailing weather. Fluctuations in weather conditions in eastern Colorado, 1997-2014, influenced breeding performance of a suite of avian species endemic to the shortgrass prairie, many of which have experienced recent population declines. High summer temperatures and intense rain events corresponded with lower nest survival for most species. Although dry conditions favored nest survival of Burrowing Owls and Mountain Plovers (Conrey 2010, Dreitz et al. 2012), drought resulted in smaller clutch sizes and lower nest survival for passerines (Skagen and Yackel Adams 2012, Conrey et al. in review). Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that some passerine species can maintain stable breeding populations in this region of the shortgrass prairie.

Problems of describing the cumulative effect in relativistic nuclear physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldin, A.M.

1979-01-01

The problem of describing the cumulative effect i.e., the particle production on nuclei in the range kinematically forbidden for one-nucleon collisions, is studied. Discrimination of events containing cumulative particles fixes configurations in the wave function of a nucleus, when several nucleons are closely spaced and their quark-parton components are collectivized. For the cumulative processes under consideration large distances between quarks are very important. The fundamental facts and theoretical interpretation of the quantum field theory and of the condensed media theory in the relativistic nuclear physics are presented in brief. The collisions of the relativistic nuclei with low momentum transfers is considered in a fast moving coordinate system. The basic parameter determining this type of collisions is the energy of nucleon binding in nuclei. It has been shown that the short-range correlation model provides a good presentation of many characteristics of the multiple particle production and it may be regarded as an approximate universal property of hadron interactions

Cumulative beam break-up study of the spallation neutron source superconducting linac

CERN Document Server

Jeon, D; Krafft, G A; Yunn, B; Sundelin, R; Delayen, J; Kim, S; Doleans, M

2002-01-01

Beam instabilities due to High Order Modes (HOMs) are a concern to superconducting (SC) linacs such as the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) linac. The effects of pulsed mode operation on transverse and longitudinal beam breakup instability are studied for H sup - beam in a consistent manner for the first time. Numerical simulation indicates that cumulative transverse beam breakup instabilities are not a concern in the SNS SC linac, primarily due to the heavy mass of H sup - beam and the HOM frequency spread resulting from manufacturing tolerances. As little as +-0.1 MHz HOM frequency spread stabilizes all the instabilities from both transverse HOMs, and also acts to stabilize the longitudinal HOMs. Such an assumed frequency spread of +-0.1 MHz HOM is small, and hence conservative compared with measured values of sigma=0.00109(f sub H sub O sub M -f sub 0)/f sub 0 obtained from Cornell and the Jefferson Lab Free Electron Laser cavities. However, a few cavities may hit resonance lines and generate a high heat lo...

Re-evaluating occupational heat stress in a changing climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Spector, June T; Sheffield, Perry E

2014-10-01

The potential consequences of occupational heat stress in a changing climate on workers, workplaces, and global economies are substantial. Occupational heat stress risk is projected to become particularly high in middle- and low-income tropical and subtropical regions, where optimal controls may not be readily available. This commentary presents occupational heat stress in the context of climate change, reviews its impacts, and reflects on implications for heat stress assessment and control. Future efforts should address limitations of existing heat stress assessment methods and generate economical, practical, and universal approaches that can incorporate data of varying levels of detail, depending on resources. Validation of these methods should be performed in a wider variety of environments, and data should be collected and analyzed centrally for both local and large-scale hazard assessments and to guide heat stress adaptation planning. Heat stress standards should take into account variability in worker acclimatization, other vulnerabilities, and workplace resources. The effectiveness of controls that are feasible and acceptable should be evaluated. Exposure scientists are needed, in collaboration with experts in other areas, to effectively prevent and control occupational heat stress in a changing climate. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Preference, resistance to change, and the cumulative decision model.

Science.gov (United States)

Grace, Randolph C

2018-01-01

According to behavioral momentum theory (Nevin & Grace, 2000a), preference in concurrent chains and resistance to change in multiple schedules are independent measures of a common construct representing reinforcement history. Here I review the original studies on preference and resistance to change in which reinforcement variables were manipulated parametrically, conducted by Nevin, Grace and colleagues between 1997 and 2002, as well as more recent research. The cumulative decision model proposed by Grace and colleagues for concurrent chains is shown to provide a good account of both preference and resistance to change, and is able to predict the increased sensitivity to reinforcer rate and magnitude observed with constant-duration components. Residuals from fits of the cumulative decision model to preference and resistance to change data were positively correlated, supporting the prediction of behavioral momentum theory. Although some questions remain, the learning process assumed by the cumulative decision model, in which outcomes are compared against a criterion that represents the average outcome value in the current context, may provide a plausible model for the acquisition of differential resistance to change. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Global analysis of urban surface water supply vulnerability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Padowski, Julie C; Gorelick, Steven M

2014-01-01

This study presents a global analysis of urban water supply vulnerability in 71 surface-water supplied cities, with populations exceeding 750 000 and lacking source water diversity. Vulnerability represents the failure of an urban supply-basin to simultaneously meet demands from human, environmental and agricultural users. We assess a baseline (2010) condition and a future scenario (2040) that considers increased demand from urban population growth and projected agricultural demand. We do not account for climate change, which can potentially exacerbate or reduce urban supply vulnerability. In 2010, 35% of large cities are vulnerable as they compete with agricultural users. By 2040, without additional measures 45% of cities are vulnerable due to increased agricultural and urban demands. Of the vulnerable cities in 2040, the majority are river-supplied with mean flows so low (1200 liters per person per day, l/p/d) that the cities experience ‘chronic water scarcity’ (1370 l/p/d). Reservoirs supply the majority of cities facing individual future threats, revealing that constructed storage potentially provides tenuous water security. In 2040, of the 32 vulnerable cities, 14 would reduce their vulnerability via reallocating water by reducing environmental flows, and 16 would similarly benefit by transferring water from irrigated agriculture. Approximately half remain vulnerable under either potential remedy. (letter)

Assessing environmental impacts on stream water quality: the use of cumulative flux and cumulative flux difference approaches to deforestation of the Hafren Forest, mid-Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Neal

2002-01-01

Full Text Available A method for examining the impacts of disturbance on stream water quality based on paired catchment “controlâ€? and “responseâ€? water quality time series is described in relation to diagrams of cumulative flux and cumulative flux difference. The paper describes the equations used and illustrates the patterns expected for idealised flux changes followed by an application to stream water quality data for a spruce forested catchment, the Hore, subjected to clear fell. The water quality determinands examined are sodium, chloride, nitrate, calcium and acid neutralisation capacity. The anticipated effects of felling are shown in relation to reduction in mist capture and nitrate release with felling as well as to the influence of weathering and cation exchange mechanisms, but in a much clearer way than observed previously using other approaches. Keywords: Plynlimon, stream, Hore, acid neutralisation capacity, calcium, chloride, nitrate, sodium, cumulative flux, flux

The role of factorial cumulants in reactor neutron noise theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colombino, A.; Pacilio, N.; Sena, G.

1979-01-01

The physical meaning and the combinatorial implications of the factorial cumulant of a state variable such as the number of neutrons or the number of neutron counts are specified. Features of the presentation are: (1) the fission process is treated in its entirety without the customary binary emission restriction, (b) the introduction of the factorial cumulants helps in reducing the complexity of the mathematical problems, (c) all the solutions can be obtained analytically. Only the ergodic hypothesis for the neutron population evolution is dealt with. (author)

Acute and Cumulative Effects of Unmodified 50-nm Nano-ZnO on Mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Tao; Zhang, Shu-Hui; Zhang, Ji-Liang; Hao, Xue-Qin; Yang, Fan; Zhang, Cai; Yang, Zi-Jun; Zhang, Meng-Yu; Wang, Jie

2018-01-02

Nanometer zinc oxide (nano-ZnO) is widely used in diverse industrial and agricultural fields. Due to the extensive contact humans have with these particles, it is crucial to understand the potential effects that nano-ZnO have on human health. Currently, information related to the toxicity and mechanisms of nano-ZnO is limited. The aim of the present study was to investigate acute and cumulative toxic effects of 50-nm unmodified ZnO in mice. This investigation will seek to establish median lethal dose (LD50), a cumulative coefficient, and target organs. The acute and cumulative toxicity was investigated by Karber's method and via a dose-increasing method, respectively. During the experiment, clinical signs, mortality, body weights, hematology, serum biochemistry, gross pathology, organ weight, and histopathology were examined. The LD50 was 5177-mg/kg·bw; the 95% confidence limits for the LD50 were 5116-5238-mg/kg·bw. It could be concluded that the liver, kidney, lung, and gastrointestinal tract were target organs for the 50-nm nano-ZnO acute oral treatment. The cumulative coefficient (K) was 1.9 which indicated that the cumulative toxicity was apparent. The results also indicated that the liver, kidney, lung, and pancrea were target organs for 50-nm nano-ZnO cumulative oral exposure and might be target organs for subchronic and chronic toxicity of oral administered 50-nm ZnO.

Turning stumbling blocks into stepping stones in the analysis of cumulative impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie M. Reid

2004-01-01

Federal and state legislation, such as the National Environmental Policy Act and the California Environmental Quality Act, require that responsible agency staff consider the cumulative impacts of proposed activities before permits are issued for certain kinds of public or private projects. The Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ 1997) defined a cumulative impact as...

Experience of cumulative effects assessment in the UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piper Jake

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Cumulative effects assessment (CEA is a development of environmental impact assessment which attempts to take into account the wider picture of what impacts may affect the environment as a result of either multiple or linear projects, or development plans. CEA is seen as a further valuable tool in promoting sustainable development. The broader canvas upon which the assessment is made leads to a suite of issues such as complexity in methods and assessment of significance, the desirability of co-operation between developers and other parties, new ways of addressing mitigation and monitoring. After outlining the legislative position and the process of CEA, this paper looks at three cases studies in the UK where cumulative assessment has been carried out - the cases concern wind farms, major infrastructure and off-shore developments.

A Review of Non-Chemical Stressors and Their Importance in Cumulative Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Cumulative exposure/risk assessments need to include non-chemical stressors as well as human activities and chemical data. Multiple stressor research can offer information on the interactions between chemical and non-chemical stressors needed for cumulative risk assessment resea...

Sex Differences in Sources of Resilience and Vulnerability to Risk for Delinquency.

Science.gov (United States)

Newsome, Jamie; Vaske, Jamie C; Gehring, Krista S; Boisvert, Danielle L

2016-04-01

Research on adolescent risk factors for delinquency has suggested that, due to genetic differences, youth may respond differently to risk factors, with some youth displaying resilience and others a heightened vulnerability. Using a behavioral genetic design and data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, this study examines whether there are sex differences in the genetic and environmental factors that influence the ways in which adolescents respond to cumulative risk for violent, nonviolent, and overall delinquency in a sample of twins (152 MZ male, 155 MZ female, 140 DZ male, 130 DZ female, and 204 DZ opposite-sex twin pairs). The results revealed that males tended to show greater vulnerability to risk for all types of delinquency, and females exhibited greater resilience. Among males, additive genetic factors accounted for 41, 29, and 43 % of the variance in responses to risk for violent, nonviolent, and overall delinquency, respectively. The remaining proportion of variance in each model was attributed to unique environmental influences, with the exception of 11 % of the variance in nonviolent responses to risk being attributed to common environmental factors. Among females, no significant genetic influences were observed; however, common environmental contributions to differences in the ways females respond to risk for violent, nonviolent, and overall delinquency were 44, 42, and 45 %, respectively. The remaining variance was attributed to unique environmental influences. Overall, genetic factors moderately influenced males' responses to risk while environmental factors fully explain variation in females' responses to risk. The implications of these findings are discussed in the context of improving the understanding of relationships between risks and outcomes, as well as informing policy and practice with adolescent offenders.

Groundwater vulnerability map for South Africa

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Chiedza Musekiwa

Coastal vulnerability is the degree to which a coastal system is susceptible to, ... methods, indicator-based approaches, GIS-based decision support systems and ..... E 2005, 'Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Parameters', European Water, vol.

Comparing factors of vulnerability and resilience of mountain communities affected by landslides in Eastern Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Dubois, Jerome; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2010-05-01

This paper describes a methodology for assessing and quantifying vulnerability and resilience of mountain communities in Eastern Nepal increasingly affected by landslides and flooding. We are interested in improving our understanding of the complex interactions between land use, landslides and multiple dimensions of risk, vulnerability and resilience to better target risk management strategies. Our approach is based on assessing underlying social, ecological and physical factors that cause vulnerability and on the other hand, those resources and capacities that increase resilience. Increasing resilience to disasters is frequently used by NGOs, governments and donors as the main goal of disaster risk reduction policies and practices. If we are to increase resilience to disasters, we need better guidance and tools for defining, assessing and monitoring its parameters. To do so, we are establishing a methodology for quantifying and mapping an index of resilience to compare resilience factors between households and communities based on interdisciplinary research methods: remote sensing, GIS, qualitative and quantitative risk assessments, participatory risk mapping, household questionnaires and focus groups discussions. Our study applied this methodology to several communities in Eastern Nepal where small, frequent landslides are greatly affecting rural lives and livelihoods. These landslides are not captured by headlines or official statistics but are examples of cumulative, hidden disasters, which are impacting everyday life and rural poverty in the Himalayas. Based on experience, marginalized populations are often aware of the physical risks and the limitations of their land. However, they continue to live in dangerous places out of necessity and for the economic or infrastructure opportunities offered. We compare two communities in Nepal, both affected by landslides but with different land use, migration patterns, education levels, social networks, risk reduction

An experimental investigation of shell and tube latent heat storage for solar dryer using paraffin wax as heat storage material

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashish Agarwal

2016-03-01

Full Text Available In the presented study the shell and tube type latent heat storage (LHS has been designed for solar dryer and paraffin wax is used as heat storage material. In the first part of the study, the thermal and heat transfer characteristics of the latent heat storage system have been evaluated during charging and discharging process using air as heat transfer fluid (HTF. In the last section of the study the effectiveness of the use of an LHS for drying of food product and also on the drying kinetics of a food product has been determined. A series of experiments were conducted to study the effects of flow rate and temperature of HTF on the charging and discharging process of LHS. The temperature distribution along the radial and longitudinal directions was obtained at different time during charging process to analyze the heat transfer phenomenon in the LHS. Thermal performance of the system is evaluated in terms of cumulative energy charged and discharged, during the charging and discharging process of LHS, respectively. Experimental results show that the LHS is suitable to supply the hot air for drying of food product during non-sunshine hours or when the intensity of solar energy is very low. Temperature gain of air in the range of 17 °C to 5 °C for approximately 10 hrs duration was achieved during discharging of LHS.

The EPA's human exposure research program for assessing cumulative risk in communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D

2010-06-01

Communities are faced with challenges in identifying and prioritizing environmental issues, taking actions to reduce their exposures, and determining their effectiveness for reducing human health risks. Additional challenges include determining what scientific tools are available and most relevant, and understanding how to use those tools; given these barriers, community groups tend to rely more on risk perception than science. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and collaborators are developing and applying tools (models, data, methods) for enhancing cumulative risk assessments. The NERL's "Cumulative Communities Research Program" focuses on key science questions: (1) How to systematically identify and prioritize key chemical stressors within a given community?; (2) How to develop estimates of exposure to multiple stressors for individuals in epidemiologic studies?; and (3) What tools can be used to assess community-level distributions of exposures for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of risk reduction strategies? This paper provides community partners and scientific researchers with an understanding of the NERL research program and other efforts to address cumulative community risks; and key research needs and opportunities. Some initial findings include the following: (1) Many useful tools exist for components of risk assessment, but need to be developed collaboratively with end users and made more comprehensive and user-friendly for practical application; (2) Tools for quantifying cumulative risks and impact of community risk reduction activities are also needed; (3) More data are needed to assess community- and individual-level exposures, and to link exposure-related information with health effects; and (4) Additional research is needed to incorporate risk-modifying factors ("non-chemical stressors") into cumulative risk assessments. The products of this

Cumulative Author Index for Soviet Laser Bibliographies Nos. 67-93, September 1983-February 1989

Science.gov (United States)

1990-02-01

C) 0 00 I: Cumulative Author Index for Soviet Laser Bibliographies September 1983 - February 1989 A Defense S&T Intelligence Special Purpose Document...90 CUMULATIVE AUTHOR INDEX FOR SOVIET LASER BIBLIOGRAPHIES Nos. 67-93 SEPTEMBER 1983 - FEBRUARY 1989 Date of Report March 31, 19 Vice Director for...RECIPIENT’S CATALOG NUMBER DST-2700Z-001-90 4. TITLE (and Subtitle) S. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED CUMULATIVE AUTHOR INDEX FOR SOVIET LASER

The Role of Cumulative Trauma, Betrayal, and Appraisals in Understanding Trauma Symptomatology.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Christina Gamache; Cromer, Lisa Demarni; Deprince, Anne P; Freyd, Jennifer J

2013-03-01

Poor psychological outcomes are common among trauma survivors, yet not all survivors experience adverse sequelae. The current study examined links between cumulative trauma exposure as a function of the level of betrayal (measured by the relational closeness of the survivor and the perpetrator), trauma appraisals, gender, and trauma symptoms. Participants were 273 college students who reported experiencing at least one traumatic event on a trauma checklist. Three cumulative indices were constructed to assess the number of different types of traumas experienced that were low (LBTs), moderate (MBTs), or high in betrayal (HBTs). Greater trauma exposure was related to more symptoms of depression, dissociation, and PTSD, with exposure to HBTs contributing the most. Women were more likely to experience HBTs than men, but there were no gender differences in trauma-related symptoms. Appraisals of trauma were predictive of trauma-related symptoms over and above the effects explained by cumulative trauma at each level of betrayal. The survivor's relationship with the perpetrator, the effect of cumulative trauma, and their combined impact on trauma symptomatology are discussed.

Heat Fluxes and Evaporation Measurements by Multi-Function Heat Pulse Probe: a Laboratory Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, V.; Ciocca, F.; Hopmans, J. W.; Kamai, T.; Lunati, I.; Parlange, M. B.

2012-04-01

Multi Functional Heat Pulse Probes (MFHPP) are multi-needles probes developed in the last years able to measure temperature, thermal properties such as thermal diffusivity and volumetric heat capacity, from which soil moisture is directly retrieved, and electric conductivity (through a Wenner array). They allow the simultaneous measurement of coupled heat, water and solute transport in porous media, then. The use of only one instrument to estimate different quantities in the same volume and almost at the same time significantly reduces the need to interpolate different measurement types in space and time, increasing the ability to study the interdependencies characterizing the coupled transports, especially of water and heat, and water and solute. A three steps laboratory experiment is realized at EPFL to investigate the effectiveness and reliability of the MFHPP responses in a loamy soil from Conthey, Switzerland. In the first step specific calibration curves of volumetric heat capacity and thermal conductivity as function of known volumetric water content are obtained placing the MFHPP in small samplers filled with the soil homogeneously packed at different saturation degrees. The results are compared with literature values. In the second stage the ability of the MFHPP to measure heat fluxes is tested within a homemade thermally insulated calibration box and results are matched with those by two self-calibrating Heatflux plates (from Huxseflux), placed in the same box. In the last step the MFHPP are used to estimate the cumulative subsurface evaporation inside a small column (30 centimeters height per 8 centimeters inner diameter), placed on a scale, filled with the same loamy soil (homogeneously packed and then saturated) and equipped with a vertical array of four MFHPP inserted close to the surface. The subsurface evaporation is calculated from the difference between the net sensible heat and the net heat storage in the volume scanned by the probes, and the

Detecting C Program Vulnerabilities

OpenAIRE

Anton, Ermakov; Natalia, Kushik

2011-01-01

C/C++ language is widely used for developing tools in various applications, in particular, software tools for critical systems are often written in C language. Therefore, the security of such software should be thoroughly tested, i.e., the absence of vulnerabilities has to be confirmed. When detecting C program vulnerabilities static source code analysis can be used. In this paper, we present a short survey of existing software tools for such analysis and show that for some kinds of C code vu...

Mental vulnerability as a risk factor for depression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østergaard, Ditte; Dalton, Susanne Oksbjerg; Bidstrup, Pernille Envold

2012-01-01

Mental vulnerability (i.e. a tendency to experience psychosomatic symptoms, mental symptoms or interpersonal problems) is associated with various diseases. This study investigated whether mental vulnerability is associated with hospitalization for depression.......Mental vulnerability (i.e. a tendency to experience psychosomatic symptoms, mental symptoms or interpersonal problems) is associated with various diseases. This study investigated whether mental vulnerability is associated with hospitalization for depression....

Relationship between heat index and mortality of 6 major cities in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Sung, Tzu-I; Wu, Pei-Chih; Lung, Shih-Chun; Lin, Chuan-Yao; Chen, Mu-Jean; Su, Huey-Jen

2013-01-01

Increased mortality, linked to events of extreme high temperatures, is recognized as one critical challenge to the public health sector. Therefore, this ecological study was conducted to assess whether this association is also significant in Taiwan and the characteristics of the relationship. Daily mean heat indices, from 1994 through 2008, were used as the predictor for the risk of increased mortality in populations from 6 major Taiwanese cities. Daily mortality data from 1994 through 2008 were retrieved from the Taiwan Death Registry, Department of Health, Taiwan, and meteorological data were acquired from the Central Weather Bureau. Poisson regression analyses using generalized linear models were applied to estimate the temperature-mortality relationship. Daily mean heat indices were calculated and used as the temperature metric. Overall, increased risk ratios in mortality were associated with increased daily mean heat indices. Significantly increased risk ratios of daily mortality were evident when daily mean heat indices were at and above the 95th percentile, when compared to the lowest percentile, in all cities. These risks tended to increase similarly among those aged 65 years and older; a phenomenon seen in the cities of Keelung, Taipei, Taichung, Tainan, and Kaohsiung, but not Chiayi. Being more vulnerable to heat stress is likely restricted to a short-term effect, as suggested by lag models which showed that there was dominantly an association during the period of 0 to 3 days. In Taiwan, predicting city-specific daily mean heat indices may provide a useful early warning system for increased mortality risk, especially for the elderly. Regional differences in health vulnerabilities should be further examined in relation to the differential social-ecological systems that affect them. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of Geomorphologic Factors for Identifying Soil Loss in Vulnerable Regions of the Cameron Highlands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kahhoong Kok

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to propose a methodology for identifying vulnerable regions in the Cameron Highlands that are susceptible to soil loss, based on runoff aggregation structure and the energy expenditure pattern of the natural river basin, within the framework of power law distribution. To this end, three geomorphologic factors, namely shear stress and stream power, as well as the drainage area of every point in the basin of interest, have been extracted using GIS, and then their complementary cumulative distributions are graphically analyzed by fitting them to power law distribution, with the purpose of identifying the sensitive points within the basin that are susceptible to soil loss with respect to scaling regimes of shear stress and stream power. It is observed that the range of vulnerable regions by the scaling regime of shear stress is much narrower than by the scaling regime of stream power. This result seems to suggest that shear stress is a scale-dependent factor, which does not follow power law distribution and does not adequately reflect the energy expenditure pattern of a river basin. Therefore, stream power is preferred as a more reasonable factor for the evaluation of soil loss. The methodology proposed in this study can be validated by visualizing the path of soil loss, which is generated from the hillslope process (characterized by the local slope to the valley through a fluvial process (characterized by the drainage area as well as the local slope.

Understanding factors influencing vulnerable older people keeping warm and well in winter: a qualitative study using social marketing techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Tod, Angela Mary; Lusambili, Adelaide; Homer, Catherine; Abbott, Joanne; Cooke, Joanne Mary; Stocks, Amanda Jayne; McDaid, Kathleen Anne

2012-01-01

To understand the influences and decisions of vulnerable older people in relation to keeping warm in winter. A qualitative study incorporating in-depth, semi-structured individual and group interviews, framework analysis and social marketing segmentation techniques. Rotherham, South Yorkshire, UK. 50 older people (>55) and 25 health and social care staff underwent individual interview. The older people also had household temperature measurements. 24 older people and 19 health and social care staff participated in one of the six group interviews. Multiple complex factors emerged to explain whether vulnerable older people were able to keep warm. These influences combined in various ways that meant older people were not able to or preferred not to access help or change home heating behaviour. Factors influencing behaviours and decisions relating to use of heating, spending money, accessing cheaper tariffs, accessing benefits or asking for help fell into three main categories. These were situational and contextual factors, attitudes and values, and barriers. Barriers included poor knowledge and awareness, technology, disjointed systems and the invisibility of fuel and fuel payment. Findings formed the basis of a social marketing segmentation model used to develop six pen portraits that illustrated how factors that conspire against older people being able to keep warm. The findings illustrate how and why vulnerable older people may be at risk of a cold home. The pen portraits provide an accessible vehicle and reflective tool to raise the capacity of the NHS in responding to their needs in line with the Cold Weather Plan.

14 CFR Section 18 - Objective Classification-Cumulative Effect of Changes in Accounting Principles

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... of Changes in Accounting Principles Section 18 Section 18 Aeronautics and Space OFFICE OF THE... Objective Classification—Cumulative Effect of Changes in Accounting Principles 98Cumulative Effect of Changes in Accounting Principles. Record here the difference between the amount of retained earnings at...

Climate change: assessment of the vulnerability of nuclear power and cost of adaptation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paillere, H.; Cameron, R. [OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, Issy-les-Moulineaux, Paris (France); Caneill, J.-Y. [EDF Group, Paris, (France); Syri, S. [Aalto Univ., Dept. of Energy Technology, Aalto (Finland)

2014-07-01

This paper reports on the preliminary outcome of an OECD study (2013-14) aimed at assessing the vulnerability of nuclear power generation in the event of extreme weather events that could be induced by climate change. Nuclear power plants (NPPs), just as other energy infrastructures, can be affected by phenomena such as floods, storms, heat waves, droughts, etc. This paper reports on examples of extreme weather events that have affected the operation of NPPs, and describes the adaptation strategy that can be implemented to improve the resilience of existing generating assets as well as new infrastructures. (author)

Pesticide Cumulative Risk Assessment: Framework for Screening Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

This document provides guidance on how to screen groups of pesticides for cumulative evaluation using a two-step approach: begin with evaluation of available toxicological information and, if necessary, follow up with a risk-based screening approach.

Thermal modeling of multi-shape heating sources on n-layer electronic board

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Monier-Vinard Eric

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The present work completes the toolbox of analytical solutions that deal with resolving steady-state temperatures of a multi-layered structure heated by one or many heat sources. The problematic of heating sources having non-rectangular shapes is addressed to enlarge the capability of analytical approaches. Moreover, various heating sources could be located on the external surfaces of the sandwiched layers as well as embedded at interface of its constitutive layers. To demonstrate its relevance, the updated analytical solution has been compared with numerical simulations on the case of a multi-layered electronic board submitted to a set of heating source configurations. The comparison shows a high agreement between analytical and numerical calculations to predict the centroid and average temperatures. The promoted analytical approach establishes a kit of practical expressions, easy to implement, which would be cumulated, using superposition principle, to help electronic designers to early detect component or board temperatures beyond manufacturer limit. The ability to eliminate bad concept candidates with a minimum of set-up, relevant assumptions and low computation time can be easily achieved.

Fuzzy vulnerability matrix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baron, Jorge H.; Rivera, S.S.

2000-01-01

The so-called vulnerability matrix is used in the evaluation part of the probabilistic safety assessment for a nuclear power plant, during the containment event trees calculations. This matrix is established from what is knows as Numerical Categories for Engineering Judgement. This matrix is usually established with numerical values obtained with traditional arithmetic using the set theory. The representation of this matrix with fuzzy numbers is much more adequate, due to the fact that the Numerical Categories for Engineering Judgement are better represented with linguistic variables, such as 'highly probable', 'probable', 'impossible', etc. In the present paper a methodology to obtain a Fuzzy Vulnerability Matrix is presented, starting from the recommendations on the Numerical Categories for Engineering Judgement. (author)

Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and the question of cumulative culture: an experimental approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall-Pescini, Sarah; Whiten, Andrew

2008-07-01

There is increasing evidence for cultural variations in behaviour among non-human species, but human societies additionally display elaborate cumulative cultural evolution, with successive generations building on earlier achievements. Evidence for cumulative culture in non-human species remains minimal and controversial. Relevant experiments are also lacking. Here we present a first experiment designed to examine chimpanzees' capacity for cumulative social learning. Eleven young chimpanzees were presented with a foraging device, which afforded both a relatively simple and a more complex tool-use technique for extracting honey. The more complex 'probing' technique incorporated the core actions of the simpler 'dipping' one and was also much more productive. In a baseline, exploration condition only two subjects discovered the dipping technique and a solitary instance of probing occurred. Demonstrations of dipping by a familiar human were followed by acquisition of this technique by the five subjects aged three years or above, whilst younger subjects showed a significant increase only in the elements of the dipping technique. By contrast, subsequent demonstrations of the probing task were not followed by acquisition of this more productive technique. Subjects stuck to their habitual dipping method despite an escalating series of demonstrations eventually exceeding 200. Supplementary tests showed this technique is within the capability of chimpanzees of this age. We therefore tentatively conclude that young chimpanzees exhibit a tendency to become 'stuck' on a technique they initially learn, inhibiting cumulative social learning and possibly constraining the species' capacity for cumulative cultural evolution.

Vulnerability, Health Agency and Capability to Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Straehle, Christine

2016-01-01

One of the defining features of the capability approach (CA) to health, as developed in Venkatapuram's book Health Justice, is its aim to enable individual health agency. Furthermore, the CA to health hopes to provide a strong guideline for assessing the health-enabling content of social and political conditions. In this article, I employ the recent literature on the liberal concept of vulnerability to assess the CA. I distinguish two kinds of vulnerability. Considering circumstantial vulnerability, I argue that liberal accounts of vulnerability concerned with individual autonomy, align with the CA to health. Individuals should, as far as possible, be able to make health-enabling decisions about their lives, and their capability to do so should certainly not be hindered by public policy. The CA to health and a vulnerability-based analysis then work alongside to define moral responsibilities and designate those who hold them. Both approaches demand social policy to address circumstances that hinder individuals from taking health-enabling decisions. A background condition of vulnerability, on the other hand, even though it hampers the capability for health, does not warrant the strong moral claim proposed by the CA to health to define health as a meta-capability that should guide social policy. Nothing in our designing social policy could change the challenge to health agency when we deal with background conditions of vulnerability. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cumulative release to the accessible environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanehiro, B.

1985-01-01

The Containment and Isolation Working Group considered issues related to the postclosure behavior of repositories in crystalline rock. This working group was further divided into subgroups to consider the progress since the 1978 GAIN Symposium and identify research needs in the individual areas of regional ground-water flow, ground-water travel time, fractional release, and cumulative release. The analysis and findings of the Fractional Release Subgroup are presented

Heat accumulation during sequential cortical bone drilling.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmisano, Andrew C; Tai, Bruce L; Belmont, Barry; Irwin, Todd A; Shih, Albert; Holmes, James R

2016-03-01

Significant research exists regarding heat production during single-hole bone drilling. No published data exist regarding repetitive sequential drilling. This study elucidates the phenomenon of heat accumulation for sequential drilling with both Kirschner wires (K wires) and standard two-flute twist drills. It was hypothesized that cumulative heat would result in a higher temperature with each subsequent drill pass. Nine holes in a 3 × 3 array were drilled sequentially on moistened cadaveric tibia bone kept at body temperature (about 37 °C). Four thermocouples were placed at the center of four adjacent holes and 2 mm below the surface. A battery-driven hand drill guided by a servo-controlled motion system was used. Six samples were drilled with each tool (2.0 mm K wire and 2.0 and 2.5 mm standard drills). K wire drilling increased temperature from 5 °C at the first hole to 20 °C at holes 6 through 9. A similar trend was found in standard drills with less significant increments. The maximum temperatures of both tools increased from drill sizes was found to be insignificant (P > 0.05). In conclusion, heat accumulated during sequential drilling, with size difference being insignificant. K wire produced more heat than its twist-drill counterparts. This study has demonstrated the heat accumulation phenomenon and its significant effect on temperature. Maximizing the drilling field and reducing the number of drill passes may decrease bone injury. © 2015 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Anti-irritants II: Efficacy against cumulative irritation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Flemming; Hedegaard, Kathryn; Petersen, Thomas Kongstad

2006-01-01

window of opportunity in which to demonstrate efficacy. Therefore, the effect of AI was studied in a cumulative irritation model by inducing irritant dermatitis with 10 min daily exposures for 5+4 days (no irritation on weekend) to 1% sodium lauryl sulfate on the right and 20% nonanoic acid on the left...

Analysis of thermal-dose response to heat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Storm, F.; Roe, D.; Drury, B.

1987-01-01

The authors reasoned that if hyperthermia alone has a clinical anti-tumor effect, response should have a thermal dose relationship. The authors analyzed 100 patients with advanced cancer treated with magnetic-induction. Three methods of determining thermal dose were used: (A) t1x10, the lowest temperature sustained throughout the tumor for 30-60min during the first of ten daily treatments, which represents one usual course of ten hourly sessions; (B) t43 (equivalent minutes at 43C) which accounts for non-linear tumor heating by combining serially measured temperatures during the first treatment with a mathematical description of the time-temperature relationship for thermal inactivation or damage; (C) Ct43 (cumulative t43), which represents the t43 value multiplied by the actual number of subsequent daily treatments received. Response was defined as CR+PR+MR. The results show a statistically significant effect of heat alone for t1x10, t43, and Ct43. These analyses demonstrate a thermal-dose relationship between hyperthermia therapy and tumor response as a sole independent variable, which indicates that heat therapy has clinical anti-cancer activity

Genetic algorithm-based improved DOA estimation using fourth-order cumulants

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, Ammar; Tufail, Muhammad

2017-05-01

Genetic algorithm (GA)-based direction of arrival (DOA) estimation is proposed using fourth-order cumulants (FOC) and ESPRIT principle which results in Multiple Invariance Cumulant ESPRIT algorithm. In the existing FOC ESPRIT formulations, only one invariance is utilised to estimate DOAs. The unused multiple invariances (MIs) must be exploited simultaneously in order to improve the estimation accuracy. In this paper, a fitness function based on a carefully designed cumulant matrix is developed which incorporates MIs present in the sensor array. Better DOA estimation can be achieved by minimising this fitness function. Moreover, the effectiveness of Newton's method as well as GA for this optimisation problem has been illustrated. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm provides improved estimation accuracy compared to existing algorithms, especially in the case of low SNR, less number of snapshots, closely spaced sources and high signal and noise correlation. Moreover, it is observed that the optimisation using Newton's method is more likely to converge to false local optima resulting in erroneous results. However, GA-based optimisation has been found attractive due to its global optimisation capability.

Targeting energy justice: Exploring spatial, racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in urban residential heating energy efficiency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reames, Tony Gerard

2016-01-01

Fuel poverty, the inability of households to afford adequate energy services, such as heating, is a major energy justice concern. Increasing residential energy efficiency is a strategic fuel poverty intervention. However, the absence of easily accessible household energy data impedes effective targeting of energy efficiency programs. This paper uses publicly available data, bottom-up modeling and small-area estimation techniques to predict the mean census block group residential heating energy use intensity (EUI), an energy efficiency proxy, in Kansas City, Missouri. Results mapped using geographic information systems (GIS) and statistical analysis, show disparities in the relationship between heating EUI and spatial, racial/ethnic, and socioeconomic block group characteristics. Block groups with lower median incomes, a greater percentage of households below poverty, a greater percentage of racial/ethnic minority headed-households, and a larger percentage of adults with less than a high school education were, on average, less energy efficient (higher EUIs). Results also imply that racial segregation, which continues to influence urban housing choices, exposes Black and Hispanic households to increased fuel poverty vulnerability. Lastly, the spatial concentration and demographics of vulnerable block groups suggest proactive, area- and community-based targeting of energy efficiency assistance programs may be more effective than existing self-referral approaches. - Highlights: • Develops statistical model to predict block group (BG) residential heating energy use intensity (EUI), an energy efficiency proxy. • Bivariate and multivariate analyses explore racial/ethnic and socioeconomic relationships with heating EUI. • BGs with more racial/ethnic minority households had higher heating EUI. • BGs with lower socioeconomics had higher heating EUI. • Mapping heating EUI can facilitate effective energy efficiency intervention targeting.

Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis of Baluran National Park

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beny Harjadi

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Every ecosystem has a different level of susceptibility to environmental disturbances it receives, both from natural factors or anthropogenic disturbance. National Park (NP Baluran is one national park that has a representation of a complete ecosystem that includes upland forest ecosystems, lowland forests, coastal forests, mangroves, savanna and evergreen forest. The objective of this study is to get a formula calculation of vulnerability analysis of constant and dynamic factors. Baluran NP vulnerability assessment to climate change done by looking at the dynamic and fixed factors. Vulnerability remains a vulnerability factor to the condition of the original (control, whereas vulnerability is the vulnerability of the dynamic change factors which affected the condition from the outside. Constant Vulnerability (CV in  Baluran NP dominated resistant conditions (61%, meaning that the geomorphology and other fixed factors (slope and slope direction/aspect, then the condition in Baluran NP sufficiently resilient to climate change. Dynamic Vulnerability (DV is the vulnerability of an area or areas that change because of pressure from external factors. DV is influenced by climatic factors (WI = Wetness Index, soil (SBI = Soil Brightness Index, and vegetation (GI = Greenness Index. DV in  Baluran NP from 1999 to 2010 shifted from the original category of being (84.76% and shifted to the susceptible (59.88%.  The role of remote sensing for the analysis of raster digital system, while the geographic information system to display the results of cartographic maps.

The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat, and heat waves in São Paulo, Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Son, Ji-Young; Gouveia, Nelson; Bravo, Mercedes A.; de Freitas, Clarice Umbelino; Bell, Michelle L.

2016-01-01

Understanding how weather impacts health is critical, especially under a changing climate; however, relatively few studies have investigated subtropical regions. We examined how mortality in São Paulo, Brazil, is affected by cold, heat, and heat waves over 14.5 years (1996-2010). We used over-dispersed generalized linear modeling to estimate heat- and cold-related mortality, and Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate overall effects and modification by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). Stratified analyses were performed by cause of death and individual characteristics (sex, age, education, marital status, and place of death). Cold effects on mortality appeared higher than heat effects in this subtropical city with moderate climatic conditions. Heat was associated with respiratory mortality and cold with cardiovascular mortality. Risk of total mortality was 6.1 % (95 % confidence interval 4.7, 7.6 %) higher at the 99th percentile of temperature than the 90th percentile (heat effect) and 8.6 % (6.2, 11.1 %) higher at the 1st compared to the 10th percentile (cold effect). Risks were higher for females and those with no education for heat effect, and males for cold effect. Older persons, widows, and non-hospital deaths had higher mortality risks for heat and cold. Mortality during heat waves was higher than on non-heat wave days for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Our findings indicate that mortality in São Paulo is associated with both cold and heat and that some subpopulations are more vulnerable.

The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat, and heat waves in São Paulo, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Son, Ji-Young; Gouveia, Nelson; Bravo, Mercedes A; de Freitas, Clarice Umbelino; Bell, Michelle L

2016-01-01

Understanding how weather impacts health is critical, especially under a changing climate; however, relatively few studies have investigated subtropical regions. We examined how mortality in São Paulo, Brazil, is affected by cold, heat, and heat waves over 14.5 years (1996-2010). We used over-dispersed generalized linear modeling to estimate heat- and cold-related mortality, and Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate overall effects and modification by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). Stratified analyses were performed by cause of death and individual characteristics (sex, age, education, marital status, and place of death). Cold effects on mortality appeared higher than heat effects in this subtropical city with moderate climatic conditions. Heat was associated with respiratory mortality and cold with cardiovascular mortality. Risk of total mortality was 6.1% (95% confidence interval 4.7, 7.6%) higher at the 99th percentile of temperature than the 90th percentile (heat effect) and 8.6% (6.2, 11.1%) higher at the 1st compared to the 10th percentile (cold effect). Risks were higher for females and those with no education for heat effect, and males for cold effect. Older persons, widows, and non-hospital deaths had higher mortality risks for heat and cold. Mortality during heat waves was higher than on non-heat wave days for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Our findings indicate that mortality in São Paulo is associated with both cold and heat and that some subpopulations are more vulnerable.

The SAVI vulnerability assessment model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winblad, A.E.

1987-01-01

The assessment model ''Systematic Analysis of Vulnerability to Intrusion'' (SAVI) presented in this report is a PC-based path analysis model. It can provide estimates of protection system effectiveness (or vulnerability) against a spectrum of outsider threats including collusion with an insider adversary. It calculates one measure of system effectiveness, the probability of interruption P(I), for all potential adversary paths. SAVI can perform both theft and sabotage vulnerability analyses. For theft, the analysis is based on the assumption that adversaries should be interrupted either before they can accomplish removal of the target material from its normal location or removal from the site boundary. For sabotage, the analysis is based on the assumption that adversaries should be interrupted before completion of their sabotage task

Europe's vulnerability to energy crises

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-01-15

The growing dependency of Europe as a whole on energy imports and anticipated further increases in energy prices reinforce the concerns about meeting the energy demand in the future. The objective of the Study is to identify the threats leading to potential energy crises and suggest solutions for facing, in an appropriate way, the related key challenges. In addition, the Study intends to develop a number of indicators effective enough to assess the level of different types of vulnerability, as well the overall vulnerability of a country or region, including threats to physical disruption, higher energy prices etc. The use of vulnerability indicators is highly recommended for all WEC-European countries, as well as to policy makers and market players.

The Unfair Commercial Practices Directive and Vulnerable Consumers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trzaskowski, Jan

the economic behaviour of consumers ‘below 1 average’ even though the practice does not meet the requirements of professional diligence. The Directive’s adoption of the European Court of Justice’s ‘average consumer’ entails that protection is generally provided only for those who are far from vulnerable......Consumer protection is deeply anchored in EU law, including the Treaty and the Charter of Fundamental Rights. This article discusses the concept of consumer vulnerability and how vulnerable consumers are protected in the context of commercial practices which is fully harmonised by the Unfair....... The Directive’s Article 5(3) concerning vulnerable consumers protects only—and to a limited extent—groups who are vulnerable due to mental or physical infirmity, age or credulity. Even though consumers make many good choices, all consumers are vulnerable in certain situations—often due to time constraints...

Future Heat Waves In Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Eltahir, E. A. B.

2017-12-01

I will review recent work from my group on the impact of climate change on the intensity and frequency of heat waves in Asia. Our studies covered Southwest Asia, South Asia, East China, and the Maritime continent. In any of these regions, the risk associated with climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that the wet-bulb temperature is a useful variable to consider in describing the natural hazard from heat waves since it can be easily compared to the natural threshold that defines the upper limit on human survivability. Based on an ensemble of high resolution climate change simulations, we project extremes of wet-bulb temperature conditions in each of these four regions of Asia. We consider the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a moderate mitigation scenario. The results from these regions will be compared and lessons learned summarized.

Energy Vulnerability and EU-Russia Energy Relations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edward Hunter Christie

2009-08-01

Full Text Available The concept of energy vulnerability is reviewed and discussed with a focus on Russia’s foreign energy relations, in particular those with European countries. A definition and a conceptual framework for quantifying energy vulnerability are proposed in the context of a review of recent research on energy vulnerability indices. In particular it is suggested that source country diversification should be reflected using the expected shortfall measure used in financial economics, rather than the Herfindahl-Hirschman or Shannon-Wiener indices, and that the former should then enter a calibrated function in order to yield expected economic loss. The issues of asymmetric failure probabilities and accidental versus intentional supply disruptions are then discussed with examples of recent Russian actions. Energy vulnerability measurement and modelling should ultimately inform policy. In particular, member states should legislate that no energy infrastructure project by one or more member states may increase the energy vulnerability of another member state. Additionally, European environmental policies, notably the EU ETS, should be amended so as to account for induced changes in energy vulnerability. Finally, member states should increase the level of transparency and disclosure with respect to gas import statistics and gas supply contracts.

Vulnerability of the boreal forest to climate change: are managed forests more susceptible?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leduc, A.; Gauthier, S.

2004-01-01

This paper postulates that forests dominated by younger seral stages are less vulnerable to climate change that those composed of mature and overmature stands. To support this analysis, an overview of expected changes in climate conditions was provided. Expected changes include higher maximum temperatures, higher minimum temperatures and a decrease in periods of intense cold and fewer frost days; reduction in the diurnal temperature range; an increase in the apparent heat index; greater numbers of intense precipitation; and, increased risk of drought associated with air mass movements. A comparison between conditions in a managed forest mosaic and natural forests was made, with managed forests differing due to efforts to regulate the age structure. The inversion in the age structure of forest mosaics creates significant changes in structural characteristics and composition, including greater hardwood components and more even-aged stands. It was concluded that in Canada, managed boreal forests are younger and have less black spruce and more hardwoods and fir, making younger forests less vulnerable to fire and more amenable to fire control due to increased accessibility. It was also noted that because of their relative youth, managed forests are more vulnerable to regeneration failure and that managed forests with more balsam fir and trembling aspen are at greater risk for insect outbreaks. In addition, wind throw, a threat to older forests, is not significant in managed forests. 15 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

Vulnerability maps for Druzba crude oil pipeline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hladik, P.; Hosnedl, P.; Buresova, H.; Corbet, J.

2012-01-01

Maps of risk for individual environmental aspects within the protection zone of the Czech part of the Druzba crude oil pipeline (505.7 km) were developed based on a modified 'H and V index' method. Risk data were added into a GIS of the Druzba pipeline so that the system could be used as conceptual material in the field of environmental protection (a base for the new SCADA system). Considered environmental aspects were assessed in terms of their vulnerability. The criteria were defined as the vulnerability of the aquatic environment (surface waters and ground waters), the vulnerability of soil environment and the vulnerability of biotic components of the environment. (authors)

Community Engaged Cumulative Risk Assessment of Exposure to Inorganic Well Water Contaminants, Crow Reservation, Montana

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, John T.; Lefthand, Myra J.; Young, Sara L.; Kindness, Larry; Other Medicine, Roberta; Ford, Timothy E.; Dietrich, Eric; Parker, Albert E.; Hoover, Joseph H.; Camper, Anne K.

2018-01-01

An estimated 11 million people in the US have home wells with unsafe levels of hazardous metals and nitrate. The national scope of the health risk from consuming this water has not been assessed as home wells are largely unregulated and data on well water treatment and consumption are lacking. Here, we assessed health risks from consumption of contaminated well water on the Crow Reservation by conducting a community-engaged, cumulative risk assessment. Well water testing, surveys and interviews were used to collect data on contaminant concentrations, water treatment methods, well water consumption, and well and septic system protection and maintenance practices. Additive Hazard Index calculations show that the water in more than 39% of wells is unsafe due to uranium, manganese, nitrate, zinc and/or arsenic. Most families’ financial resources are limited, and 95% of participants do not employ water treatment technologies. Despite widespread high total dissolved solids, poor taste and odor, 80% of families consume their well water. Lack of environmental health literacy about well water safety, pre-existing health conditions and limited environmental enforcement also contribute to vulnerability. Ensuring access to safe drinking water and providing accompanying education are urgent public health priorities for Crow and other rural US families with low environmental health literacy and limited financial resources. PMID:29304032

The politics of vulnerability and resilience

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Frerks, G.E.; Warner, J.F.; Weijs, B.

2011-01-01

Much conceptual confusion exists over the concepts of vulnerability and (social) resilience, reinforced by the different paradigms (the article identifies four) and disciplinary traditions underlying their use. While since the 1980s the social construction of "vulnerability" as a driver for disaster

Cumulative effects assessment in Canada: an agenda for action and research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peterson, E.B.; Chan, Y.-H.; Peterson, N.M.; Constable, G.A.; Caton, R.B.; Davis, C.S.; Wallace, R.R.; Yarranton, G.A.

1987-01-01

This review of cumulative environmental effects assessment in Canada identified 13 sets of issues that are considered to be of particular significance to Canadians over the next decade or two. They are: long-range transport of air pollutants; urban air quality and airshed saturation, mobilization of persistent or bioaccumulated substances, climatic modification, land occupation by man-made features, habitat alienation and fragmentation, soil losses, effects of agricultural chemicals, groundwater supply reduction and contamination, increased sediment, chemical and thermal loading of freshwater and marine habitats, accelerating rates of renewable resource harvesting, and long-term containment and disposal of toxic wastes. There is a diverse set of examples in which cumulative effects have been recognized and brought under control and management, and the scientific and institutional factors that promoted a successful approach are summarized. It was confirmed that there are well-defined limitations in the degree to which project referrals and project-specific environmental impact assessments can be adapted to manage cumulative effects successfully. In general, this review confirmed the hypothesis that current approaches for both scientific analyses and institutional arrangements to manage cumulative effects remain inadequately developed in Canada. To address this weakness, action is required on improving links between ecosystems, research, and management. Recommendations are made and a research agenda is presented. 171 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.

Vulnerability of schools to floods in Nyando River catchment, Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Ochola, Samuel O; Eitel, Bernhard; Olago, Daniel O

2010-07-01

This paper assesses the vulnerability of schools to floods in the Nyando River catchment (3,600 km(2)) in western Kenya and identifies measures needed to reduce this vulnerability. It surveys 130 schools in the lower reaches, where flooding is a recurrent phenomenon. Of the primary schools assessed, 40% were vulnerable, 48% were marginally vulnerable and 12% were not vulnerable. Of the secondary schools, 8% were vulnerable, 73% were marginally vulnerable and 19% were not vulnerable. Vulnerability to floods is due to a lack of funds, poor building standards, local topography, soil types and inadequate drainage. The Constituencies Development Fund (CDF), established in 2003, provides financial support to cover school construction and reconstruction costs; CDF Committees are expected to adopt school building standards. In an effort to promote safe and resilient construction and retrofitting to withstand floods, this paper presents vulnerability reduction strategies and recommendations for incorporating minimum standards in the on-going Primary School Infrastructure Programme Design.

Cumulative Beam Breakup with Time-Dependent Parameters

CERN Document Server

Delayen, J R

2004-01-01

A general analytical formalism developed recently for cumulative beam breakup (BBU) in linear accelerators with arbitrary beam current profile and misalignments [1] is extended to include time-dependent parameters such as energy chirp or rf focusing in order to reduce BBU-induced instabilities and emittance growth. Analytical results are presented and applied to practical accelerator configurations.

Vulnerabilities Classification for Safe Development on Android

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ricardo Luis D. M. Ferreira

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The global sales market is currently led by devices with the Android operating system. In 2015, more than 1 billion smartphones were sold, of which 81.5% were operated by the Android platform. In 2017, it is estimated that 267.78 billion applications will be downloaded from Google Play. According to Qian, 90% of applications are vulnerable, despite the recommendations of rules and standards for the safe software development. This study presents a classification of vulnerabilities, indicating the vulnerability, the safety aspect defined by the Brazilian Association of Technical Standards (Associação Brasileira de Normas Técnicas - ABNT norm NBR ISO/IEC 27002 which will be violated, which lines of code generate the vulnerability and what should be done to avoid it, and the threat agent used by each of them. This classification allows the identification of possible points of vulnerability, allowing the developer to correct the identified gaps.

Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Eshita

2008-01-01

This paper assesses the relative oil vulnerability of 26 net oil-importing countries for the year 2004 on the basis of various indicators - the ratio of value of oil imports to gross domestic product (GDP), oil consumption per unit of GDP, GDP per capita and oil share in total energy supply, ratio of domestic reserves to oil consumption, exposure to geopolitical oil market concentration risks as measured by net oil import dependence, diversification of supply sources, political risk in oil-supplying countries, and market liquidity. The approach using the principal component technique has been adopted to combine these individual indicators into a composite index of oil vulnerability. Such an index captures the relative sensitivity of various economies towards developments of the international oil market, with a higher index indicating higher vulnerability. The results show that there are considerable differences in the values of individual indicators of oil vulnerability and overall oil vulnerability index among the countries (both inter and intraregional). (author)

Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gupta, Eshita [The Energy and Resources Institute, Darbari Seth Block, Habitat Place, New Delhi 110 003 (India)

2008-03-15

This paper assesses the relative oil vulnerability of 26 net oil-importing countries for the year 2004 on the basis of various indicators - the ratio of value of oil imports to gross domestic product (GDP), oil consumption per unit of GDP, GDP per capita and oil share in total energy supply, ratio of domestic reserves to oil consumption, exposure to geopolitical oil market concentration risks as measured by net oil import dependence, diversification of supply sources, political risk in oil-supplying countries, and market liquidity. The approach using the principal component technique has been adopted to combine these individual indicators into a composite index of oil vulnerability. Such an index captures the relative sensitivity of various economies towards developments of the international oil market, with a higher index indicating higher vulnerability. The results show that there are considerable differences in the values of individual indicators of oil vulnerability and overall oil vulnerability index among the countries (both inter and intraregional). (author)

Localised hydrodynamics influence vulnerability of coral communities to environmental disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Shedrawi, George; Falter, James L.; Friedman, Kim J.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Simpson, Christopher J.; Speed, Conrad W.; Wilson, Shaun K.; Zhang, Zhenlin

2017-09-01

The movement of water can have a significant influence on the vulnerability of hermatypic corals to environmental disturbances such as cyclone damage, heat stress and anoxia. Here, we explore the relationship between small reef-scale water circulation patterns and measured differences in the abundance, composition and vulnerability of coral assemblages over decades. Changes in coral cover and community structure within Bill's Bay (Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia) over a 22-yr period, during which multiple disturbance events (including mass bleaching, anoxia, and tropical cyclones) have impacted the area, were compared with spatial variation in water residence times (WRT). We found that reef sites associated with longer water residence times (WRT >15 h) experienced higher rates of coral mortality during acute environmental disturbances compared to reef sites with shorter WRT. Shifts in coral community composition from acroporid to faviid-dominated assemblages were also more prominent at sites with long WRT compared to reef sites with shorter WRT, although shifts in community composition were also observed at sites close to shore. Interestingly, these same long-WRT sites also tended to have the fastest recovery rates so that coral cover was returned to original levels of approximately 20% over two decades. This study provides empirical evidence that spatial patterns in water circulation and flushing can influence the resilience of coral communities, thus identifying areas sensitive to emerging threats associated with global climate change.

Groundwater Vulnerability Map for South Africa | Musekiwa | South ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Vulnerability of groundwater is a relative, non-measurable and dimensionless property which is based on the concept that some land areas are more vulnerable to groundwater contamination than others. Maps showing groundwater vulnerability assist with the identification of areas more susceptible to contamination than ...

6 CFR 27.400 - Chemical-terrorism vulnerability information.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Chemical-terrorism vulnerability information. 27... FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Other § 27.400 Chemical-terrorism vulnerability information. (a... that constitute Chemical-terrorism Vulnerability Information (CVI), as defined in § 27.400(b). The...

Error Analysis on the Estimation of Cumulative Infiltration in Soil Using Green and AMPT Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhamad Askari

2006-08-01

Full Text Available Green and Ampt infiltration model is still useful for the infiltration process because of a clear physical basis of the model and of the existence of the model parameter values for a wide range of soil. The objective of thise study was to analyze error on the esimation of cumulative infiltration in sooil using Green and Ampt model and to design laboratory experiment in measuring cumulative infiltration. Parameter of the model was determined based on soil physical properties from laboratory experiment. Newton –Raphson method was esed to estimate wetting front during calculation using visual Basic for Application (VBA in MS Word. The result showed that  contributed the highest error in estimation of cumulative infiltration and was followed by K, H0, H1, and t respectively. It also showed that the calculated cumulative infiltration is always lower than both measured cumulative infiltration and volumetric soil water content.

Incorporating cumulative effects into environmental assessments of mariculture: Limitations and failures of current siting methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, Sarah C.; Pushchak, Ronald

2008-01-01

Assessing and evaluating the cumulative impacts of multiple marine aquaculture facilities has proved difficult in environmental assessment. A retrospective review of 23 existing mariculture farms in southwestern New Brunswick was conducted to determine whether cumulative interactions would have justified site approvals. Based on current scientific evidence of cumulative effects, six new criteria were added to a set of far-field impacts and other existing criteria were expanded to include regional and cumulative environmental impacts in Hargrave's [Hargrave BT. A traffic light decision system for marine finfish aquaculture siting. Ocean Coast Manag 2002; 45:215-35.] Traffic Light Decision Support System (DSS) presently used in Canadian aquaculture environmental assessments. Before mitigation, 19 of the 23 sites failed the amended set of criteria and after considering mitigation, 8 sites failed. Site and ecosystem indices yielded varying site acceptability scores; however, many sites would not have been approved if siting decisions had been made within a regional management framework and cumulative impact criteria were considered in the site evaluation process

The Implementation of Cumulative Learning Theory in Calculating Triangular Prism and Tube Volumes

Science.gov (United States)

Muklis, M.; Abidin, C.; Pamungkas, M. D.; Masriyah

2018-01-01

This study aims at describing the application of cumulative learning theory in calculating the volume of a triangular prism and a tube as well as revealing the students’ responses toward the learning. The research method used was descriptive qualitative with elementary school students as the subjects of the research. Data obtained through observation, field notes, questionnaire, tests, and interviews. The results from the application of cumulative learning theory obtained positive students’ responses in following the learning and students’ learning outcomes was dominantly above the average. This showed that cumulative learning could be used as a reference to be implemented in learning, so as to improve the students’ achievement.

Acute volume expansion preserves orthostatic tolerance during whole-body heat stress in humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, David M; Low, David A; Wingo, Jonathan E; Brothers, R Matthew; Hastings, Jeff; Davis, Scott L; Crandall, Craig G

2009-03-01

Whole-body heat stress reduces orthostatic tolerance via a yet to be identified mechanism(s). The reduction in central blood volume that accompanies heat stress may contribute to this phenomenon. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that acute volume expansion prior to the application of an orthostatic challenge attenuates heat stress-induced reductions in orthostatic tolerance. In seven normotensive subjects (age, 40 +/- 10 years: mean +/- S.D.), orthostatic tolerance was assessed using graded lower-body negative pressure (LBNP) until the onset of symptoms associated with ensuing syncope. Orthostatic tolerance (expressed in cumulative stress index units, CSI) was determined on each of 3 days, with each day having a unique experimental condition: normothermia, whole-body heating, and whole-body heating + acute volume expansion. For the whole-body heating + acute volume expansion experimental day, dextran 40 was rapidly infused prior to LBNP sufficient to return central venous pressure to pre-heat stress values. Whole-body heat stress alone reduced orthostatic tolerance by approximately 80% compared to normothermia (938 +/- 152 versus 182 +/- 57 CSI; mean +/- S.E.M., P body heating completely ameliorated the heat stress-induced reduction in orthostatic tolerance (1110 +/- 69 CSI, P stress results in many cardiovascular and neural responses that directionally challenge blood pressure regulation, reduced central blood volume appears to be an underlying mechanism responsible for impaired orthostatic tolerance in the heat-stressed human.

Cumulative trauma and partner conflict predict post-traumatic stress disorder in postpartum African-American women.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauff, Nancy J; Fry-McComish, Judith; Chiodo, Lisa M

2017-08-01

To describe relationships between cumulative trauma, partner conflict and post-traumatic stress in African-American postpartum women. Cumulative trauma exposure estimates for women in the USA range from 51-69%. During pregnancy, most trauma research has focused on physical injury to the mother. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with trauma and more prevalent in African-American women than women of other groups. Knowledge about both the rate and impact of cumulative trauma on pregnancy may contribute to our understanding of women seeking prenatal care, and disparities in infant morbidity and mortality. This retrospective, correlational, cross-sectional study took place on postpartum units of two Detroit hospitals. Participants were 150 African-American women aged between 18-45 who had given birth. Mothers completed the Cumulative Trauma Scale, Conflict Tactics Scale, Clinician Administered Post-traumatic Stress Scale, Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and a Demographic Data form. Descriptive statistics, correlations and multiple regressions were used for data analysis. All participants reported at least one traumatic event in their lifetime. Cumulative trauma and partner conflict predicted PTSD, with the trauma of a life-threatening event for a loved one reported by 60% of the sample. Nearly, one-fourth of the women screened were at risk for PTSD. Increased cumulative trauma, increased partner conflict and lower level of education were related to higher rates of PTSD symptoms. Both cumulative trauma and partner conflict in the past year predict PTSD. Reasoning was used most often for partner conflict resolution. The results of this study offer additional knowledge regarding relationships between cumulative trauma, partner conflict and PTSD in African-American women. Healthcare providers need to be sensitive to patient life-threatening events, personal failures, abuse and other types of trauma. Current evidence supports the need to assess for

Nuclear material production cycle vulnerability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bott, T.F.

1996-01-01

This paper discusses a method for rapidly and systematically identifying vulnerable equipment in a nuclear material or similar production process and ranking that equipment according to its attractiveness to a malevolent attacker. A multistep approach was used in the analysis. First, the entire production cycle was modeled as a flow diagram. This flow diagram was analyzed using graph theoretical methods to identify processes in the production cycle and their locations. Models of processes that were judged to be particularly vulnerable based on the cycle analysis then were developed in greater detail to identify equipment in that process that is vulnerable to intentional damage

A cumulant functional for static and dynamic correlation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollett, Joshua W.; Hosseini, Hessam; Menzies, Cameron

2016-01-01

A functional for the cumulant energy is introduced. The functional is composed of a pair-correction and static and dynamic correlation energy components. The pair-correction and static correlation energies are functionals of the natural orbitals and the occupancy transferred between near-degenerate orbital pairs, rather than the orbital occupancies themselves. The dynamic correlation energy is a functional of the statically correlated on-top two-electron density. The on-top density functional used in this study is the well-known Colle-Salvetti functional. Using the cc-pVTZ basis set, the functional effectively models the bond dissociation of H 2 , LiH, and N 2 with equilibrium bond lengths and dissociation energies comparable to those provided by multireference second-order perturbation theory. The performance of the cumulant functional is less impressive for HF and F 2 , mainly due to an underestimation of the dynamic correlation energy by the Colle-Salvetti functional.

Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2015-12-01

Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

Comparative studies of groundwater vulnerability assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Maria, Rizka

2018-02-01

Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small-moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.

An Extreme-Value Approach to Anomaly Vulnerability Identification

Science.gov (United States)

Everett, Chris; Maggio, Gaspare; Groen, Frank

2010-01-01

The objective of this paper is to present a method for importance analysis in parametric probabilistic modeling where the result of interest is the identification of potential engineering vulnerabilities associated with postulated anomalies in system behavior. In the context of Accident Precursor Analysis (APA), under which this method has been developed, these vulnerabilities, designated as anomaly vulnerabilities, are conditions that produce high risk in the presence of anomalous system behavior. The method defines a parameter-specific Parameter Vulnerability Importance measure (PVI), which identifies anomaly risk-model parameter values that indicate the potential presence of anomaly vulnerabilities, and allows them to be prioritized for further investigation. This entails analyzing each uncertain risk-model parameter over its credible range of values to determine where it produces the maximum risk. A parameter that produces high system risk for a particular range of values suggests that the system is vulnerable to the modeled anomalous conditions, if indeed the true parameter value lies in that range. Thus, PVI analysis provides a means of identifying and prioritizing anomaly-related engineering issues that at the very least warrant improved understanding to reduce uncertainty, such that true vulnerabilities may be identified and proper corrective actions taken.

Assessing vulnerability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hellmuth, M.; Kabat, P.

2003-01-01

It is in the shantytowns and rural villages of the Third World that floods and droughts strike hardest and deepest. Vulnerability to the vagaries of climate depends not only on location, but, crucially, on the capacity of the victims to cope with the impacts of extreme weather. So, where are the

Arthroscopic knee surgery does not modify hyperalgesic responses to heat injury

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Werner, Mads U; Duun, Preben; Kraemer, Otto

2003-01-01

contralateral to the surgical side. Ibuprofen and acetaminophen were given for 2 days before the first burn injury and again from the time of surgery. In the controls, the two burn injuries were separated by 7 days. Sensory variables included cumulated pain score during induction of the burn (visual analog...... scale), secondary hyperalgesia area, and mechanical and thermal pain perception and pain thresholds assessed before and 1 h after the burn injury. RESULTS: The heat injuries induced significant increases in pain perception (P pain thresholds (P pain...... thresholds were higher during the second burn injury in patients (P pain to heat injury (P > 0.8), secondary hyperalgesia areas (P > 0.1), mechanical and thermal pain perception (P > 0.1), or mechanical and thermal pain...

Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

Reconceptualizing Vulnerability in Personal Narrative Writing with Youths

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Elisabeth

2014-01-01

Through a student/teacher classroom conflict, the author explores ways adults produce student writers as vulnerable. Drawing on post-structural concepts of adolescence, identity production, interrogation, and vulnerability, the author details how an English teacher invited students to perform vulnerability in personal narratives about issues like…

Working up a Debt: Students as Vulnerable Consumers

Science.gov (United States)

Robson, Julie; Farquhar, Jillian Dawes; Hindle, Christopher

2017-01-01

Students are recognized as vulnerable consumers where financial matters are concerned, particularly with reference to indebtedness. This study examines student indebtedness in order to initiate wider debate about student vulnerability. We consider vulnerability as dynamic and temporal, linked to an event that renders the consumer susceptible to…

Cumulative trauma, gender discrimination and mental health in women: mediating role of self-esteem.

Science.gov (United States)

Kucharska, Justyna

2017-12-20

Evidence suggests that women show symptoms of trauma-related symptoms more often than men. Gender discrimination is also associated with the severity of symptoms in women. This study explored the relations among cumulative trauma, gender discrimination and mental health in women with a mediating role of self-esteem and emotion regulation. Two types of gender discrimination were taken into account: discrimination by parents and in the social context. Cumulative trauma over the lifetime was assessed, as well as three types of symptoms: internalising, externalising, psychoticism. A total of 277 females from Poland participated in the study. It was hypothesised that gender discrimination and cumulative trauma would be positively related to symptoms and that lowered self-esteem mediates these relations. Hypotheses received partial confirmation, as both gender discrimination and cumulative trauma have been shown to be related to three types of symptoms. Self-esteem was a partial mediator between gender discrimination in the social context and symptoms. It was also demonstrated that emotion suppression is a partial mediator between cumulative trauma and symptoms. It has been demonstrated that socio-cultural factors, such as gender discrimination, play an important role in psychiatric symptoms development.

Cumulative (DisAdvantage and the Matthew Effect in Life-Course Analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miia Bask

Full Text Available To foster a deeper understanding of the mechanisms behind inequality in society, it is crucial to work with well-defined concepts associated with such mechanisms. The aim of this paper is to define cumulative (disadvantage and the Matthew effect. We argue that cumulative (disadvantage is an intra-individual micro-level phenomenon, that the Matthew effect is an inter-individual macro-level phenomenon and that an appropriate measure of the Matthew effect focuses on the mechanism or dynamic process that generates inequality. The Matthew mechanism is, therefore, a better name for the phenomenon, where we provide a novel measure of the mechanism, including a proof-of-principle analysis using disposable personal income data. Finally, because socio-economic theory should be able to explain cumulative (disadvantage and the Matthew mechanism when they are detected in data, we discuss the types of models that may explain the phenomena. We argue that interactions-based models in the literature traditions of analytical sociology and statistical mechanics serve this purpose.

Cumulative or delayed nephrotoxicity after cisplatin (DDP) treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Pinnarò, P; Ruggeri, E M; Carlini, P; Giovannelli, M; Cognetti, F

1986-04-30

The present retrospective study reports data regarding renal toxicity in 115 patients (63 males, 52 females; median age, 56 years) who received cumulative doses of cisplatin (DDP) greater than or equal to 200 mg/m2. DDP was administered alone or in combination at a dose of 50-70 mg/m2 in 91 patients, and at a dose of 100 mg/m2 in 22 patients. Two patients after progression of ovarian carcinoma treated with conventional doses of DDP received 4 and 2 courses, respectively, of high-dose DDP (40 mg/m2 for 5 days) in hypertonic saline. The median number of DDP courses was 6 (range 2-14), and the median cumulative dose was 350 mg/m2 (range, 200-1200). Serum creatinine and urea nitrogen were determined before initiating the treatment and again 13-16 days after each administration. The incidence of azotemia (creatinina levels that exceeded 1.5 mg/dl) was similar before (7.8%) and after (6.1%) DDP doses of 200 mg/m2. Azotemia appears to be related to the association of DDP with other potentially nephrotoxic antineoplastic drugs (methotrexate) more than to the dose per course of DDP. Of 59 patients followed for 2 months or more after discontinuing the DDP treatment, 3 (5.1%) presented creatinine values higher than 1.5 mg/dl. The data deny that the incidence of nephrotoxicity is higher in patients receiving higher cumulative doses of DDP and confirm that increases in serum creatinine levels may occur some time after discontinuation of the drug.

Heat-induced alterations in cashew allergen solubility and IgE binding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher P. Mattison

Full Text Available Cashew nuts are an increasingly common cause of food allergy. We compare the soluble protein profile of cashew nuts following heating. SDS-PAGE indicate that heating can alter the solubility of cashew nut proteins. The 11S legumin, Ana o 2, dominates the soluble protein content in ready to eat and mildly heated cashew nuts. However, we found that in dark-roasted cashew nuts, the soluble protein profile shifts and the 2S albumin Ana o 3 composes up to 40% of the soluble protein. Analysis of trypsin-treated extracts by LC/MS/MS indicate changes in the relative number and intensity of peptides. The relative cumulative intensity of the 5 most commonly observed Ana o 1 and 2 peptides are altered by heating, while those of the 5 most commonly observed Ana o 3 peptides remaine relatively constant. ELISA experiments indicate that there is a decrease in rabbit IgG and human serum IgE binding to soluble cashew proteins following heating. Our findings indicate that heating can alter the solubility of cashew allergens, resulting in altered IgE binding. Our results support the use of both Ana o 2 and Ana o 3 as potential cashew allergen diagnostic targets. Keywords: Cashew nut, Food allergy, Immunoglobulin E, Mass-spectrometry, Peptide, Solubility

Áreas vulnerables en el centro de Madrid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agustín Hernández Aja

2007-07-01

This document shows an vulnerability analysis of the central area of Madrid taken it as the field of APE-00.01. Its objective is to delimit “vulnerable areas” so there can be evaluated the opportunities for interve trough them and then define the best tools in detriment of their vulnerability reasons. To determinate those areas we have developed a sociodemographic analysis where we have found those units of population with vulnerable values. Once determinated, we have synthetize them to define them as easy drafts that makes understandable the work area for later on establish a vulnerable areas catalogue with spatial homogeneity and significant size. The basic nucleus of the análisis has been the sociodemographic fact, based on homogeneus data sources for all the area so they could be referenced to specific spacial areas. In each case has been advised other possible indicators of vulnerability including a signifier selection of thrm on the fifth chapter.

The Relationship between Grandiose and Vulnerable (Hypersensitive Narcissism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emanuel Jauk

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Narcissistic grandiosity is characterized by overt expressions of feelings of superiority and entitlement, while narcissistic vulnerability reflects hypersensitivity and introversive self-absorbedness. Clinical evidence suggests that grandiosity is accompanied by vulnerable aspects, pointing to a common foundation. Subclinical personality research, however, views grandiose and vulnerable narcissism as independent traits. Grandiose narcissism displays substantial correlation with extraversion, while vulnerable narcissism correlates highly with introversion. We investigated if (1 controlling for intro-/extraversion might reveal a “common core” of grandiose and vulnerable narcissism, and if (2 the correlation between both aspects might be higher at higher levels of narcissism. Latent variable structural equation modeling and segmented regression analysis confirmed these hypotheses in a large non-clinical sample (N = 1,006. Interindividual differences in intro-/extraversion mask the common core of grandiose and vulnerable narcissism. The association between both aspects increases at high levels (upper 10% of grandiose narcissism, which suggests a possible transition to clinically relevant (pathological narcissism.

The Relationship between Grandiose and Vulnerable (Hypersensitive) Narcissism

Science.gov (United States)

Jauk, Emanuel; Weigle, Elena; Lehmann, Konrad; Benedek, Mathias; Neubauer, Aljoscha C.

2017-01-01

Narcissistic grandiosity is characterized by overt expressions of feelings of superiority and entitlement, while narcissistic vulnerability reflects hypersensitivity and introversive self-absorbedness. Clinical evidence suggests that grandiosity is accompanied by vulnerable aspects, pointing to a common foundation. Subclinical personality research, however, views grandiose and vulnerable narcissism as independent traits. Grandiose narcissism displays substantial correlation with extraversion, while vulnerable narcissism correlates highly with introversion. We investigated if (1) controlling for intro-/extraversion might reveal a “common core” of grandiose and vulnerable narcissism, and if (2) the correlation between both aspects might be higher at higher levels of narcissism. Latent variable structural equation modeling and segmented regression analysis confirmed these hypotheses in a large non-clinical sample (N = 1,006). Interindividual differences in intro-/extraversion mask the common core of grandiose and vulnerable narcissism. The association between both aspects increases at high levels (upper 10%) of grandiose narcissism, which suggests a possible transition to clinically relevant (pathological) narcissism. PMID:28955288

Statistics of software vulnerability detection in certification testing

Science.gov (United States)

Barabanov, A. V.; Markov, A. S.; Tsirlov, V. L.

2018-05-01

The paper discusses practical aspects of introduction of the methods to detect software vulnerability in the day-to-day activities of the accredited testing laboratory. It presents the approval results of the vulnerability detection methods as part of the study of the open source software and the software that is a test object of the certification tests under information security requirements, including software for communication networks. Results of the study showing the allocation of identified vulnerabilities by types of attacks, country of origin, programming languages used in the development, methods for detecting vulnerability, etc. are given. The experience of foreign information security certification systems related to the detection of certified software vulnerabilities is analyzed. The main conclusion based on the study is the need to implement practices for developing secure software in the development life cycle processes. The conclusions and recommendations for the testing laboratories on the implementation of the vulnerability analysis methods are laid down.

Hydrodynamic Expansion of Pellicles Caused by e-Beam Heating

CERN Document Server

Ho, D

2000-01-01

Placing a pellicle in front of a x-ray converter target for radiographic applications can confine the backstreaming ions and target plasma to a shorter channel so that the cumulative effect on e-beam focusing is reduced. The pellicle is subject to heating by e-beam since the pellicle is placed upstream of the target. The calculation of the hydrodynamic expansion, caused by the heating, using the radiation hydrodynamics code LASNEX is presented in this report. Calculations show that mylar pellicles disintegrate at the end of a multi-pulse intense e-beam while beryllium and carbon pellicles remain intact. The expansions for the kapton-carbon multi-layered targets are also examined. Hydrodynamic expansions for pellicles with various e-beam spot radii are calculated for DARHT-II beam parameters. All the simulation results indicate that the backstreaming ions can be stopped.

Assessment of cooling tower (ultimate heat sink) performance in the Byron individual plant examination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, H.D.; Hawley, J.T.; Klopp, G.T.; Thelen, W.A.

2004-01-01

A time-dependent model of the Byron Nuclear Generation Station safety-related cooling towers has been developed for use with the Byron PRA (IPE). The model can either be run in a stand-alone program with externally supplied heat loads, or can be directly coupled into MAAP (Modular Accident Analysis Program). The primary feature of the model is a careful tracking of the basin temperature through the progression of different severe accidents. Heat removal rates from containment, both from containment fan-coolers and the residual heat removal system, are determined by the feed-back of this time-varying return temperature. Also, the inventory of the basin is tracked in time, and this is controlled by make-up, evaporative losses due to the heat load supplied to the towers, and the possibility of unsecured blowdown. The model has been used to determine the overall capabilities and vulnerabilities of the Byron Ultimate Heat Sink (UHS). It was determined that the UHS is very reliable with respect to maintaining acceptably low basin temperatures, requiring only at most two of eight operating cooling tower fans. Further, when the two units have their Essential Service Water (ESW) systems cross-tied, one of four ESW operating pumps is sufficient to handle the loads from the accident unit with the other unit proceeding to an orderly shutdown. The major vulnerability of the Byron UHS is shown to be the ability to maintain inventory, although the time-scales for basin dry-out are relatively long, being eight to twenty-one hours, depending upon when blowdown is secured. (author)

Vulnerability, Borderline Personality Disorders. Clinical and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Borderline personality disorder and vulnerability are difficult to assess and are rather elusive to define. A case study material is presented from a cognitive analytical model. An attempt of the dominant features of cognitive analytical therapy and discussion of vulnerability in relation to personality disorder is provided.

[Aged woman's vulnerability related to AIDS].

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Carla Marins; Lopes, Fernanda Maria do Valle Martins; Vargens, Octavio Muniz da Costa

2010-09-01

This article is a systhematic literature review including the period from 1994 to 2009, whose objective was to discuss the aged woman's vulnerability in relation to Acquired Imunodeficiency Syndrome (Aids). The search for scientific texts was accomplished in the following databases: Biblioteca Virtual em Saúde, Scientific Eletronic Library Online (SciELO), Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde (LILACS) and Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE). The descriptors used were vulnerability, woman and Aids. Eighteen texts were analyzed, including articles in scientific journals, thesis and dissertations. As a conclusion, it was noted that aged women and vulnerability to Aids are directly related, through gender characteristics including submission and that were built historical and socially. We consider as fundamental the development of studies which may generate publications accessible to women, in order to help them see themselves as persons vulnerable to Aids contagion just for being women.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes.

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron Macneil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Ohman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-04-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

30 CFR 250.921 - How do I analyze my platform for cumulative fatigue?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false How do I analyze my platform for cumulative fatigue? 250.921 Section 250.921 Mineral Resources MINERALS MANAGEMENT SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR... fatigue? (a) If you are required to analyze cumulative fatigue on your platform because of the results of...

The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part I—Conceptualising and measuring vulnerability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nelson, R.; Kokic, P.; Crimp, S.; Meinke, H.B.; Howden, S.M.

2010-01-01

Vulnerability is a term frequently used to describe the potential threat to rural communities posed by climate variability and change. Despite growing use of the term, analytical measures of vulnerability that are useful for prioritising and evaluating policy responses are yet to evolve. Demand for

Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nilsson, H.; Rieskamp, J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

2011-01-01

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) has provided one of the most influential accounts of how people make decisions under risk. CPT is a formal model with parameters that quantify psychological processes such as loss aversion, subjective values of gains and losses, and

A synthesized biophysical and social vulnerability assessment for Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Yung-Jaan

2017-11-01

Taiwan, located in the Western Pacific, is a country that is one of the most vulnerable to disasters that are associated with the changing climate; it is located within the Ring of Fire, which is the most geologically active region in the world. The environmental and geological conditions in Taiwan are sensitive and vulnerable to such disasters. Owing to increasing urbanization in Taiwan, floods and climate-related disasters have taken an increasing toll on human lives. As global warming accelerates the rising of sea levels and increasing of the frequency of extreme weather events, disasters will continue to affect socioeconomic development and human conditions. Under such circumstances, researchers and policymakers alike must recognize the importance of providing useful knowledge concerning vulnerability, disaster recovery and resilience. Strategies for reducing vulnerability and climate-related disaster risks and for increasing resilience involve preparedness, mitigation and adaptation. In the last two decades, extreme climate events have caused severe flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and other disasters and have had negative effects of many sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and health. Since climate change is expected to have a continued impact on socio-economic development, this work develops a vulnerability assessment framework that integrates both biophysical and social vulnerability and supports synthesized vulnerability analyses to identify vulnerable areas in Taiwan. Owing to its geographical, geological and climatic features, Taiwan is susceptible to earthquakes, typhoons, droughts and various induced disasters. Therefore, Taiwan has the urgent task of establishing a framework for assessing vulnerability as a planning and policy tool that can be used to identify not only the regions that require special attention but also hotspots in which efforts should be made to reduce vulnerability and the risk of climate-related disaster. To

Knowledge and awareness of heat-related morbidity among adult recreational endurance athletes

Science.gov (United States)

Shendell, Derek G.; Alexander, Melannie S.; Lorentzson, Lauren; McCarty, Frances A.

2010-07-01

Adults have been increasingly motivated to compete in recreational endurance sports events. Amateurs may lack a complete understanding of recommended strategies for handling heat and humidity, making heat-related illnesses increasingly possible. This is compounded by global climate change and increasing average surface and air temperatures, especially in urban areas of industrialized nations in Europe and North America that have hosted most events to date. We conducted an on-line, secure survey at the 2nd Annual ING Georgia Marathon and Half-Marathon in Atlanta, Georgia, in 2008. We included previously validated questions on participant socio-demographics, training locations, and knowledge and awareness of heat-related illnesses. Participants were aware of heat illnesses, and of heat stroke as a serious form of heat stress. However, the majority, across age and gender, did not understand the potential severity of heat stroke. Furthermore, 1-in-5 participants did not understand the concept of heat stress as a form of heat-related illness, and how heat stress may result from buildup of muscle-generated heat in the body. Adult recreational endurance athletes are another susceptible, vulnerable population sub-group for applied research and public health educational interventions, especially in urban areas of industrialized nations in Europe and North America.

Mental Vulnerability as a Predictor of Early Mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eplov, Lene F.; Jørgensen, Torben; Segel, S.

2005-01-01

BACKGROUND: Studies have demonstrated that mental vulnerability (ie, a tendency to experience psychosomatic symptoms or inadequate interpersonal interactions) is associated with various diseases. The objective of our study is to evaluate whether mental vulnerability is a risk factor for early...... mortality. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 3 random samples of the population in Copenhagen County, Denmark selected in 1976, 1982-1984, and 1991 (n = 6435). Baseline data collection included measures of mental vulnerability, social factors, comorbidity, biologic risk markers (eg, blood...... of mortality as the result of natural causes. The association between mental vulnerability and survival was examined using Kaplan-Meir plots and Cox proportional-hazard models adjusting for possible confounding factors. RESULTS: With respect to mental vulnerability, 79% of the sample was classified...

Heatwaves and urban heat islands: A comparative analysis of multiple cities

Science.gov (United States)

Ramamurthy, P.; Bou-Zeid, E.

2017-01-01

The recent International Panel on Climate Change report predicts the highly urbanized Northeastern U.S. to be at high risk to heat waves. Since urban residents and infrastructure are known to be highly vulnerable to extreme heat, the goal of this paper is to understand the interaction between the synoptic-scale heat wave and the city-scale urban heat island (UHI) effects. The study also qualitatively analyzes the primary factors that contribute to UHIs by comparing their intensities in different cities with distinct geo-physical characteristics. Our results, generated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting model augmented with advanced urban surface parameterizations, confirm that the amplitude of UHI is related to the physical size of the city. However, the results suggest that cities of comparabale sizes might interact differently with heat waves: in New York City; Washington, DC; and Baltimore (but not in Philadelphia) the regular UHI was amplified more strongly during heat waves compared to smaller cities. The results also establish that the pattern of UHI in different cities, its variability, and its interaction with heat waves are inherently linked to dynamic factors.

Assessing intrinsic and specific vulnerability models ability to indicate groundwater vulnerability to groups of similar pesticides: A comparative study

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas, Steven; Dixon, Barnali; Griffin, Dale W.

2018-01-01

With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.

Dynamic prediction of cumulative incidence functions by direct binomial regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Grand, Mia K; de Witte, Theo J M; Putter, Hein

2018-03-25

In recent years there have been a series of advances in the field of dynamic prediction. Among those is the development of methods for dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function in a competing risk setting. These models enable the predictions to be updated as time progresses and more information becomes available, for example when a patient comes back for a follow-up visit after completing a year of treatment, the risk of death, and adverse events may have changed since treatment initiation. One approach to model the cumulative incidence function in competing risks is by direct binomial regression, where right censoring of the event times is handled by inverse probability of censoring weights. We extend the approach by combining it with landmarking to enable dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function. The proposed models are very flexible, as they allow the covariates to have complex time-varying effects, and we illustrate how to investigate possible time-varying structures using Wald tests. The models are fitted using generalized estimating equations. The method is applied to bone marrow transplant data and the performance is investigated in a simulation study. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The Role of Cumulative Trauma, Betrayal, and Appraisals in Understanding Trauma Symptomatology

OpenAIRE

Martin, Christina Gamache; Cromer, Lisa DeMarni; DePrince, Anne P.; Freyd, Jennifer J.

2011-01-01

Poor psychological outcomes are common among trauma survivors, yet not all survivors experience adverse sequelae. The current study examined links between cumulative trauma exposure as a function of the level of betrayal (measured by the relational closeness of the survivor and the perpetrator), trauma appraisals, gender, and trauma symptoms. Participants were 273 college students who reported experiencing at least one traumatic event on a trauma checklist. Three cumulative indices were const...

Assessing local vulnerability to climate change in Ecuador.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago J; Renteria, Willington

2015-01-01

Vulnerability assessments have become necessary to increase the understanding of climate-sensitive systems and inform resource allocation in developing countries. Challenges arise when poor economic and social development combines with heterogeneous climatic conditions. Thus, finding and harmonizing good-quality data at local scale may be a significant hurdle for vulnerability research. In this paper we assess vulnerability to climate change at a local level in Ecuador. We take Ecuador as a case study as socioeconomic data are readily available. To incorporate the spatial and temporal pattern of the climatic variables we use reanalysis datasets and empirical orthogonal functions. Our assessment strategy relies on the statistical behavior of climatic and socioeconomic indicators for the weighting and aggregation mechanism into a composite vulnerability indicator. Rather than assuming equal contribution to the formation of the composite indicator, we assume that the weights of the indicators vary inversely as the variance over the cantons (administrative division of Ecuador). This approach captures the multi-dimensionality of vulnerability in a comprehensive form. We find that the least vulnerable cantons concentrate around Ecuador's largest cities (e.g. Quito and Guayaquil); however, approximately 20 % of the national population lives in other cantons that are categorized as highly and very highly vulnerable to climate change. Results also show that the main determinants of high vulnerability are the lack of land tenure in agricultural areas and the nonexistence of government-funded programs directed to environmental and climate change management.

Plutonium Vulnerability Management Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-03-01

This Plutonium Vulnerability Management Plan describes the Department of Energy's response to the vulnerabilities identified in the Plutonium Working Group Report which are a result of the cessation of nuclear weapons production. The responses contained in this document are only part of an overall, coordinated approach designed to enable the Department to accelerate conversion of all nuclear materials, including plutonium, to forms suitable for safe, interim storage. The overall actions being taken are discussed in detail in the Department's Implementation Plan in response to the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) Recommendation 94-1. This is included as Attachment B

VuWiki: An Ontology-Based Semantic Wiki for Vulnerability Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Khazai, Bijan; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Büscher, Christian; Wegner, Antje

2014-05-01

The concept of vulnerability, as well as its implementation in vulnerability assessments, is used in various disciplines and contexts ranging from disaster management and reduction to ecology, public health or climate change and adaptation, and a corresponding multitude of ideas about how to conceptualize and measure vulnerability exists. Three decades of research in vulnerability have generated a complex and growing body of knowledge that challenges newcomers, practitioners and even experienced researchers. To provide a structured representation of the knowledge field "vulnerability assessment", we have set up an ontology-based semantic wiki for reviewing and representing vulnerability assessments: VuWiki, www.vuwiki.org. Based on a survey of 55 vulnerability assessment studies, we first developed an ontology as an explicit reference system for describing vulnerability assessments. We developed the ontology in a theoretically controlled manner based on general systems theory and guided by principles for ontology development in the field of earth and environment (Raskin and Pan 2005). Four key questions form the first level "branches" or categories of the developed ontology: (1) Vulnerability of what? (2) Vulnerability to what? (3) What reference framework was used in the vulnerability assessment?, and (4) What methodological approach was used in the vulnerability assessment? These questions correspond to the basic, abstract structure of the knowledge domain of vulnerability assessments and have been deduced from theories and concepts of various disciplines. The ontology was then implemented in a semantic wiki which allows for the classification and annotation of vulnerability assessments. As a semantic wiki, VuWiki does not aim at "synthesizing" a holistic and overarching model of vulnerability. Instead, it provides both scientists and practitioners with a uniform ontology as a reference system and offers easy and structured access to the knowledge field of

Heat and Humidity in the City: Neighborhood Heat Index Variability in a Mid-Sized City in the Southeastern United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Hass, Alisa L; Ellis, Kelsey N; Reyes Mason, Lisa; Hathaway, Jon M; Howe, David A

2016-01-11

Daily weather conditions for an entire city are usually represented by a single weather station, often located at a nearby airport. This resolution of atmospheric data fails to recognize the microscale climatic variability associated with land use decisions across and within urban neighborhoods. This study uses heat index, a measure of the combined effects of temperature and humidity, to assess the variability of heat exposure from ten weather stations across four urban neighborhoods and two control locations (downtown and in a nearby nature center) in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. Results suggest that trees may negate a portion of excess urban heat, but are also associated with greater humidity. As a result, the heat index of locations with more trees is significantly higher than downtown and areas with fewer trees. Trees may also reduce heat stress by shading individuals from incoming radiation, though this is not considered in this study. Greater amounts of impervious surfaces correspond with reduced evapotranspiration and greater runoff, in terms of overall mass balance, leading to a higher temperature, but lower relative humidity. Heat index and relative humidity were found to significantly vary between locations with different tree cover and neighborhood characteristics for the full study time period as well as for the top 10% of heat index days. This work demonstrates the need for high-resolution climate data and the use of additional measures beyond temperature to understand urban neighborhood exposure to extreme heat, and expresses the importance of considering vulnerability differences among residents when analyzing neighborhood-scale impacts.

Heat and Humidity in the City: Neighborhood Heat Index Variability in a Mid-Sized City in the Southeastern United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alisa L. Hass

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Daily weather conditions for an entire city are usually represented by a single weather station, often located at a nearby airport. This resolution of atmospheric data fails to recognize the microscale climatic variability associated with land use decisions across and within urban neighborhoods. This study uses heat index, a measure of the combined effects of temperature and humidity, to assess the variability of heat exposure from ten weather stations across four urban neighborhoods and two control locations (downtown and in a nearby nature center in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. Results suggest that trees may negate a portion of excess urban heat, but are also associated with greater humidity. As a result, the heat index of locations with more trees is significantly higher than downtown and areas with fewer trees. Trees may also reduce heat stress by shading individuals from incoming radiation, though this is not considered in this study. Greater amounts of impervious surfaces correspond with reduced evapotranspiration and greater runoff, in terms of overall mass balance, leading to a higher temperature, but lower relative humidity. Heat index and relative humidity were found to significantly vary between locations with different tree cover and neighborhood characteristics for the full study time period as well as for the top 10% of heat index days. This work demonstrates the need for high-resolution climate data and the use of additional measures beyond temperature to understand urban neighborhood exposure to extreme heat, and expresses the importance of considering vulnerability differences among residents when analyzing neighborhood-scale impacts.

Cumulative effective and individual organ dose levels in paediatric patients undergoing multiple catheterizations for congenital heart disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, T.P.; Brennan, P.C.; Ryan, E.

2017-01-01

This study examines the cumulative radiation dose levels received by a group of children who underwent multiple cardiac catheterisation procedures during the investigation and management of congenital heart disease (CHD). The purpose is to calculate cumulative doses, identify higher dose individuals, outline the inconsistencies with risk assessment and encourage the establishment of dose databases in order to facilitate the longitudinal research necessary to better understand health risks. A retrospective review of patient records for 117 paediatric patients who have undergone two or more cardiac catheterizations for the investigation of CHD was undertaken. This cohort consisted of patients who were catheterised over a period from September 2002 to August 2014. The age distribution was from newborn to 17 y. Archived kerma-area product (P KA ) and fluoroscopy time (T) readings were retrieved and analysed. Cumulative effective and individual organ doses were determined. The cumulative P KA levels ranged from 1.8 to 651.2 Gycm 2 , whilst cumulative effective dose levels varied from 2 to 259 mSv. The cumulative fluoroscopy time was shown to vary from 8.1 to 193.5 min. Median cumulative organ doses ranged from 3 to 94 mGy. Cumulative effective dose levels are highly variable but may exceed 250 mSv. Individual organ and effective dose measurements remain useful for comparison purposes between institutions although current methodologies used for determining lifetime risks are inadequate. (authors)

Multiparty correlation measure based on the cumulant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, D. L.; Zeng, B.; Xu, Z.; You, L.

2006-01-01

We propose a genuine multiparty correlation measure for a multiparty quantum system as the trace norm of the cumulant of the state. The legitimacy of our multiparty correlation measure is explicitly demonstrated by proving it satisfies the five basic conditions required for a correlation measure. As an application we construct an efficient algorithm for the calculation of our measures for all stabilizer states

78 FR 25440 - Request for Information and Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-01

... Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment AGENCY: Office of the Science Advisor, Environmental... influence exposures, dose-response or risk/hazard posed by environmental contaminant exposures, and methods... who wish to receive further information about submitting information on methods for cumulative risk...