WorldWideScience

Sample records for cumulative heat vulnerability

  1. Development of a heat vulnerability index for New York State.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, S G; Shrestha, S; Kinney, P L; Ross, Z; Sheridan, S C; Pantea, C I; Hsu, W H; Muscatiello, N; Hwang, S A

    2017-12-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme heat events are increasing in New York State (NYS) and have been linked with increased heat-related morbidity and mortality. But these effects are not uniform across the state and can vary across large regions due to regional sociodemographic and environmental factors which impact an individual's response or adaptive capacity to heat and in turn contribute to vulnerability among certain populations. We developed a heat vulnerability index (HVI) to identify heat-vulnerable populations and regions in NYS. Census tract level environmental and sociodemographic heat-vulnerability variables were used to develop the HVI to identify heat-vulnerable populations and areas. Variables were identified from a comprehensive literature review and climate-health research in NYS. We obtained data from 2010 US Census Bureau and 2011 National Land Cover Database. We used principal component analysis to reduce correlated variables to fewer uncorrelated components, and then calculated the cumulative HVI for each census tract by summing up the scores across the components. The HVI was then mapped across NYS (excluding New York City) to display spatial vulnerability. The prevalence rates of heat stress were compared across HVI score categories. Thirteen variables were reduced to four meaningful components representing 1) social/language vulnerability; 2) socioeconomic vulnerability; 3) environmental/urban vulnerability; and 4) elderly/ social isolation. Vulnerability to heat varied spatially in NYS with the HVI showing that metropolitan areas were most vulnerable, with language barriers and socioeconomic disadvantage contributing to the most vulnerability. Reliability of the HVI was supported by preliminary results where higher rates of heat stress were collocated in the regions with the highest HVI. The NYS HVI showed spatial variability in heat vulnerability across the state. Mapping the HVI allows quick identification of regions in NYS that could

  2. A method proposal for cumulative environmental impact assessment based on the landscape vulnerability evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pavlickova, Katarina; Vyskupova, Monika

    2015-01-01

    Cumulative environmental impact assessment deals with the occasional use in practical application of environmental impact assessment process. The main reasons are the difficulty of cumulative impact identification caused by lack of data, inability to measure the intensity and spatial effect of all types of impacts and the uncertainty of their future evolution. This work presents a method proposal to predict cumulative impacts on the basis of landscape vulnerability evaluation. For this purpose, qualitative assessment of landscape ecological stability is conducted and major vulnerability indicators of environmental and socio-economic receptors are specified and valuated. Potential cumulative impacts and the overall impact significance are predicted quantitatively in modified Argonne multiple matrixes while considering the vulnerability of affected landscape receptors and the significance of impacts identified individually. The method was employed in the concrete environmental impact assessment process conducted in Slovakia. The results obtained in this case study reflect that this methodology is simple to apply, valid for all types of impacts and projects, inexpensive and not time-consuming. The objectivity of the partial methods used in this procedure is improved by quantitative landscape ecological stability evaluation, assignment of weights to vulnerability indicators based on the detailed characteristics of affected factors, and grading impact significance. - Highlights: • This paper suggests a method proposal for cumulative impact prediction. • The method includes landscape vulnerability evaluation. • The vulnerability of affected receptors is determined by their sensitivity. • This method can increase the objectivity of impact prediction in the EIA process

  3. County-level heat vulnerability of urban and rural residents in Tibet, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Li; Woodward, Alistair; Cirendunzhu; Liu, Qiyong

    2016-01-12

    Tibet is especially vulnerable to climate change due to the relatively rapid rise of temperature over past decades. The effects on mortality and morbidity of extreme heat in Tibet have been examined in previous studies; no heat adaptation initiatives have yet been implemented. We estimated heat vulnerability of urban and rural populations in 73 Tibetan counties and identified potential areas for public health intervention and further research. According to data availability and vulnerability factors identified previously in Tibet and elsewhere, we selected 10 variables related to advanced age, low income, illiteracy, physical and mental disability, small living spaces and living alone. We separately created and mapped county-level cumulative heat vulnerability indices for urban and rural residents by summing up factor scores produced by a principal components analysis (PCA). For both study populations, PCA yielded four factors with similar structure. The components for rural and urban residents explained 76.5 % and 77.7 % respectively of the variability in the original vulnerability variables. We found spatial variability of heat vulnerability across counties, with generally higher vulnerability in high-altitude counties. Although we observed similar median values and ranges of the cumulative heat vulnerability index values among urban and rural residents overall, the pattern varied strongly from one county to another. We have developed a measure of population vulnerability to high temperatures in Tibet. These are preliminary findings, but they may assist targeted adaptation plans in response to future rapid warming in Tibet.

  4. Do Holocaust survivors show increased vulnerability or resilience to post-Holocaust cumulative adversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrira, Amit; Palgi, Yuval; Ben-Ezra, Menachem; Shmotkin, Dov

    2010-06-01

    Prior trauma can hinder coping with additional adversity or inoculate against the effect of recurrent adversity. The present study further addressed this issue by examining whether a subsample of Holocaust survivors and comparison groups, drawn from the Israeli component of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe, were differentially affected by post-Holocaust cumulative adversity. Post-Holocaust cumulative adversity had a stronger effect on the lifetime depression of Holocaust survivors than on that of comparisons. However, comparisons were more negatively affected by post-Holocaust cumulative adversity when examining markers of physical and cognitive functioning. Our findings suggest that previous trauma can both sensitize and immunize, as Holocaust survivors show general resilience intertwined with specific vulnerability when confronted with additional cumulative adversity.

  5. Cumulants of heat transfer across nonlinear quantum systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huanan; Agarwalla, Bijay Kumar; Li, Baowen; Wang, Jian-Sheng

    2013-12-01

    We consider thermal conduction across a general nonlinear phononic junction. Based on two-time observation protocol and the nonequilibrium Green's function method, heat transfer in steady-state regimes is studied, and practical formulas for the calculation of the cumulant generating function are obtained. As an application, the general formalism is used to study anharmonic effects on fluctuation of steady-state heat transfer across a single-site junction with a quartic nonlinear on-site pinning potential. An explicit nonlinear modification to the cumulant generating function exact up to the first order is given, in which the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation symmetry is found still valid. Numerically a self-consistent procedure is introduced, which works well for strong nonlinearity.

  6. Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen) advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California. PMID:29659481

  7. Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoul S. Liévanos

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California.

  8. Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liévanos, Raoul S

    2018-04-16

    The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen) advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California.

  9. Heat wave vulnerability classification of residential buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijden, van der M.G.M.; Blocken, B.J.E.; Hensen, J.L.M.

    2012-01-01

    General circulation models of climate change predict that the intensity and frequency of heat waves will increase, which are a significant threat to public health (Luber and McGeehin 2008). The effect of heat waves on the public health became apparent during the 2003 heat wave in France, where

  10. Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, Scott C.; Allen, Michael J.

    2018-04-01

    Over recent decades, studies have examined various morbidity and mortality outcomes associated with heat exposure. This review explores the collective knowledge of the temporal trends of heat on human health, with regard to the hypothesis that humans are less vulnerable to heat events presently than in the past. Using Web of Science and Scopus, the authors identified all peer-reviewed articles that contained keywords on human impact (e.g. mortality, morbidity) and meteorological component (e.g. heat, heatwave). After sorting, a total of 71 articles, both case studies and epidemiological studies, contained explicit assessments of temporal trends in human vulnerability, and thus were used in this review. Most of the studies utilized mortality data, focused on the developed world, and showed a general decrease in heat sensitivity. Factors such as the implementation of a heat warning system, increased awareness, and improved quality of life were cited as contributing factors that led to the decreased impact of heat. Despite the overall recent decreases in heat vulnerability, spatial variability was shown, and differences with respect to health outcomes were also discussed. Several papers noted increases in heat’s impact on human health, particularly when unprecedented conditions occurred. Further, many populations, from outdoor workers to rural residents, in addition to the populations in much of the developing world, have been significantly underrepresented in research to date, and temporal changes in their vulnerability should be assessed in future studies. Moreover, continued monitoring and improvement of heat intervention is needed; with projected changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat events combined with shifts in demographics, heat will remain a major public health issue moving forward.

  11. Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

    2013-04-01

    Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

  12. A Heat Vulnerability Index and Adaptation Solutions for Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradford, Kathryn; Abrahams, Leslie; Hegglin, Miriam; Klima, Kelly

    2015-10-06

    With increasing evidence of global warming, many cities have focused attention on response plans to address their populations' vulnerabilities. Despite expected increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, the health impacts of such events in urban areas can be minimized with careful policy and economic investments. We focus on Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and ask two questions. First, what are the top factors contributing to heat vulnerability and how do these characteristics manifest geospatially throughout Pittsburgh? Second, assuming the City wishes to deploy additional cooling centers, what placement will optimally address the vulnerability of the at risk populations? We use national census data, ArcGIS geospatial modeling, and statistical analysis to determine a range of heat vulnerability indices and optimal cooling center placement. We find that while different studies use different data and statistical calculations, all methods tested locate additional cooling centers at the confluence of the three rivers (Downtown), the northeast side of Pittsburgh (Shadyside/Highland Park), and the southeast side of Pittsburgh (Squirrel Hill). This suggests that for Pittsburgh, a researcher could apply the same factor analysis procedure to compare data sets for different locations and times; factor analyses for heat vulnerability are more robust than previously thought.

  13. Cumulative stress and substantiated maltreatment: the importance of caregiver vulnerability and adult partner violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wekerle, Christine; Wall, Anne-Marie; Leung, Eman; Trocmé, Nico

    2007-04-01

    Our goal is to assess the effect of caregiver vulnerabilities, singly and in combination, on the substantiation of child abuse (physical, sexual) and neglect, while controlling for relevant background variables. We test the moderator role of adult partner violence in qualifying the relationship between caregiver vulnerabilities and maltreatment substantiation. Secondary analyses of the 1998 Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Maltreatment (CIS) are used to predict child protective service investigation substantiation versus non-substantiation from a range of caregiver vulnerability factors. Involvement in partner violence was examined as a moderator in the relation between caregiver vulnerabilities and maltreatment substantiation. The CIS is an epidemiological survey of first-reported cases to child protective services, using a random sample of child welfare agencies across Canada. Child welfare workers completed a research form on the child, primary caregiver, family, perpetrator, severity and type of maltreatment, as well as services and court outcomes. All maltreatment classifications were assigned according to the Canadian legal definition of child abuse and neglect. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses were used, with stepped entry of: (1) demographic factors, socioeconomic disadvantage, and caregiver's own history of maltreatment; (2) caregiver vulnerability factors; (3) involvement in partner violence; (4) the interaction between caregiver vulnerability and partner violence. Caregiver substance abuse was found to be the single most potent kind of caregiver vulnerability in predicting maltreatment substantiation. When the total number of vulnerabilities was used as the predictor, prediction across all types of maltreatment increased, especially for substantiated neglect. Analyses also showed that the presence of partner violence in the home exacerbated the effect of caregiver vulnerability on substantiation. The total number of caregiver

  14. Cumulative Vulnerability: A Case Study on intrafamilial violence, Drug Addiction and Adolescent Pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miura, Paula Orchiucci; Passarini, Gislaine Martins Ricardo; Ferreira, Loraine Seixas; Paixão, Rui Alexandre Paquete; Tardivo, Leila Salomão de La Plata Cury; Barrientos, Dora Mariela Salcedo

    2014-12-01

    A pregnant adolescent's vulnerability increases when she is a victim of intrafamilial violence and drug addiction, which cause physical and biopsychosocial damage to the mother and her baby. Objective Present and analyze the case of an adolescent who is addicted to drugs, pregnant and the victim of lifelong intrafamilial violence. Method A case study based on a semi-structured interview conducted in the Obstetrics Emergency Unit at the Teaching Hospital of the University of São Paulo. The data were interpreted and analyzed using Content Analysis. Results intrafamilial violence experienced at the beginning of the adolescent's early relationships seriously affected her emotional maturity, triggering the development of psychopathologies and leaving her more susceptible to the use and abuse of alcohol and other drugs. The adolescent is repeating her history with her daughter, reproducing the cycle of violence. Conclusion Adolescent pregnancy combined with intrafamilial violence and drug addiction and multiplies the adolescent's psychosocial vulnerability increased the adolescent's vulnerability.

  15. Cumulative Vulnerability: A Case Study on intrafamilial violence, Drug Addiction and Adolescent Pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Orchiucci Miura

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available A pregnant adolescent’s vulnerability increases when she is a victim of intrafamilial violence and drug addiction, which cause physical and biopsychosocial damage to the mother and her baby. Objective Present and analyze the case of an adolescent who is addicted to drugs, pregnant and the victim of lifelong intrafamilial violence. Method A case study based on a semi-structured interview conducted in the Obstetrics Emergency Unit at the Teaching Hospital of the University of São Paulo. The data were interpreted and analyzed using Content Analysis. Results intrafamilial violence experienced at the beginning of the adolescent’s early relationships seriously affected her emotional maturity, triggering the development of psychopathologies and leaving her more susceptible to the use and abuse of alcohol and other drugs. The adolescent is repeating her history with her daughter, reproducing the cycle of violence. Conclusion Adolescent pregnancy combined with intrafamilial violence and drug addiction and multiplies the adolescent’s psychosocial vulnerability increased the adolescent’s vulnerability.

  16. Climate change and health: Indoor heat exposure in vulnerable populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; Sánchez, Brisa N.; Jolliet, Olivier; Zhang, Zhenzhen; Parker, Edith A.; Timothy Dvonch, J.; O'Neill, Marie S.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves and hot weather in many urban environments. Older people are more vulnerable to heat exposure but spend most of their time indoors. Few published studies have addressed indoor heat exposure in residences occupied by an elderly population. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between outdoor and indoor temperatures in homes occupied by the elderly and determine other predictors of indoor temperature. Materials and methods: We collected hourly indoor temperature measurements of 30 different homes; outdoor temperature, dewpoint temperature, and solar radiation data during summer 2009 in Detroit, MI. We used mixed linear regression to model indoor temperatures' responsiveness to weather, housing and environmental characteristics, and evaluated our ability to predict indoor heat exposures based on outdoor conditions. Results: Average maximum indoor temperature for all locations was 34.85 °C, 13.8 °C higher than average maximum outdoor temperature. Indoor temperatures of single family homes constructed of vinyl paneling or wood siding were more sensitive than brick homes to outdoor temperature changes and internal heat gains. Outdoor temperature, solar radiation, and dewpoint temperature predicted 38% of the variability of indoor temperatures. Conclusions: Indoor exposures to heat in Detroit exceed the comfort range among elderly occupants, and can be predicted using outdoor temperatures, characteristics of the housing stock and surroundings to improve heat exposure assessment for epidemiological investigations. Weatherizing homes and modifying home surroundings could mitigate indoor heat exposure among the elderly.

  17. Heat exposure and socio-economic vulnerability as synergistic factors in heat-wave-related mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rey, Gregoire; Fouillet, Anne; Bessemoulin, Pierre; Frayssinet, Philippe; Dufour, Anne; Jougla, Eric; Hemon, Denis

    2009-01-01

    Heat waves may become a serious threat to the health and safety of people who currently live in temperate climates. It was therefore of interest to investigate whether more deprived populations are more vulnerable to heat waves. In order to address the question on a fine geographical scale, the spatial heterogeneity of the excess mortality in France associated with the European heat wave of August 2003 was analysed. A deprivation index and a heat exposure index were used jointly to describe the heterogeneity on the Canton scale (3,706 spatial units). During the heat wave period, the heat exposure index explained 68% of the extra-Poisson spatial variability of the heat wave mortality ratios. The heat exposure index was greater in the most urbanized areas. For the three upper quintiles of heat exposure in the densely populated Paris area, excess mortality rates were twofold higher in the most deprived Cantons (about 20 excess deaths/100,000 people/day) than in the least deprived Cantons (about 10 excess deaths/100,000 people/day). No such interaction was observed for the rest of France, which was less exposed to heat and less heterogeneous in terms of deprivation. Although a marked increase in mortality was associated with heat wave exposure for all degrees of deprivation, deprivation appears to be a vulnerability factor with respect to heat-wave-associated mortality.

  18. Urban Heat Wave Vulnerability Analysis Considering Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    JE, M.; KIM, H.; Jung, S.

    2017-12-01

    Much attention has been paid to thermal environments in Seoul City in South Korea since 2016 when the worst heatwave in 22 years. It is necessary to provide a selective measure by singling out vulnerable regions in advance to cope with the heat wave-related damage. This study aims to analyze and categorize vulnerable regions of thermal environments in the Seoul and analyzes and discusses the factors and risk factors for each type. To do this, this study conducted the following processes: first, based on the analyzed various literature reviews, indices that can evaluate vulnerable regions of thermal environment are collated. The indices were divided into climate exposure index related to temperature, sensitivity index including demographic, social, and economic indices, and adaptation index related to urban environment and climate adaptation policy status. Second, significant variables were derived to evaluate a vulnerable region of thermal environment based on the summarized indices in the above. this study analyzed a relationship between the number of heat-related patients in Seoul and variables that affected the number using multi-variate statistical analysis to derive significant variables. Third, the importance of each variable was calculated quantitatively by integrating the statistical analysis results and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Fourth, a distribution of data for each index was identified based on the selected variables and indices were normalized and overlapped. Fifth, For the climate exposure index, evaluations were conducted as same as the current vulnerability evaluation method by selecting future temperature of Seoul predicted through the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) climate change scenarios as an evaluation variable. The results of this study can be utilized as foundational data to establish a countermeasure against heatwave in Seoul. Although it is limited to control heatwave occurrences itself completely, improvements

  19. Modelling the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards for river basin management using a GIS-based multicriteria decision approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hung-Chih; Wu, Ju-Yu; Hung, Chih-Hsuan

    2017-04-01

    1. Background Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable areas of the world to climate-related hazards and extremes due to rapid urbanization and over-development in hazard-prone areas. It is thus increasingly recognized that the management of land use and reduction of hazard risk are inextricably linked. This is especially critical from the perspective of integrated river basin management. A range of studies has targeted existing vulnerability assessments. However, limited attention has been paid to the cumulative effects of multiple vulnerable factors and their dynamics faced by local communities. This study proposes a novel methodology to access the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and to examine the relationship between the attraction factors relevant to the general process of urbanization and vulnerability variability with a focus on a river basin management unit. 2. Methods and data The methods applied in this study include three steps. First, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) approach, a Cumulative Vulnerability Assessment Framework (CVAF) is built with a goal to characterize and compare the vulnerability to climate-related hazards within river basin regions based on a composition of multiple indicators. We organize these indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard exposure; (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptive capacity. Second, the CVAF is applied by combining a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique with a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess and map the changing cumulative vulnerability, comparing conditions in 1996 and 2006 in Danshui River Basin, Taiwan. Third, to examine the affecting factors of vulnerability changing, we develop a Vulnerability Changing Model (VCM) using four attraction factors to reflect how the process of urban developments leads to vulnerability changing. The factors are transport networks, land uses

  20. Using Remotely Sensed Data to Map Urban Vulnerability to Heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanov, William L.

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation defines remote sensing, and presents examples of remote sensing and astronaut photography, which has been a part of many space missions. The presentation then reviews the project aimed at analyzing urban vulnerability to climate change, which is to test the hypotheses that Exposure to excessively warm weather threatens human health in all types of climate regimes; Heat kills and sickens multitudes of people around the globe every year -- directly and indirectly, and Climate change, coupled with urban development, will impact human health. Using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixing Analysis (MESMA), and the Phoenix urban area as the example, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is calculated, a change detection analysis is shown, and surface temperature is shown.

  1. Cumulant generating function formula of heat transfer in ballistic systems with lead-lead coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huanan; Agarwalla, Bijay Kumar; Wang, Jian-Sheng

    2012-10-01

    Based on a two-time observation protocol, we consider heat transfer in a given time interval tM in a lead-junction-lead system taking coupling between the leads into account. In view of the two-time observation, consistency conditions are carefully verified in our specific family of quantum histories. Furthermore, its implication is briefly explored. Then using the nonequilibrium Green's function method, we obtain an exact formula for the cumulant generating function for heat transfer between the two leads, valid in both transient and steady-state regimes. Also, a compact formula for the cumulant generating function in the long-time limit is derived, for which the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation symmetry is explicitly verified. In addition, we briefly discuss Di Ventra's repartitioning trick regarding whether the repartitioning procedure of the total Hamiltonian affects the nonequilibrium steady-state current fluctuation. All kinds of properties of nonequilibrium current fluctuations, such as the fluctuation theorem in different time regimes, could be readily given according to these exact formulas.

  2. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Wolf

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

  3. On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

    2015-10-23

    Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

  4. Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taback, I.

    1979-01-01

    The discussion of vulnerability begins with a description of some of the electrical characteristics of fibers before definiting how vulnerability calculations are done. The vulnerability results secured to date are presented. The discussion touches on post exposure vulnerability. After a description of some shock hazard work now underway, the discussion leads into a description of the planned effort and some preliminary conclusions are presented.

  5. Identifying Population Vulnerable to Extreme Heat Events in San Jose, California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, A. L.

    2016-12-01

    The extreme heat days not only make cities less comfortable for living but also they are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Mapping studies have demonstrated spatial variability in heat vulnerability. A study conducted between 2000 and 2011 in New York City shows that deaths during heat waves was more likely to occur in black individuals, at home in census tracts which received greater public assistance. This map project intends to portray areas in San Jose California that are vulnerable to extreme heat events. The variables considered to build a vulnerability index are: land surface temperature, vegetated areas (NDVI), and people exposed to these area (population density).

  6. Social vulnerability to heat in Greater Atlanta, USA: spatial pattern of heat, NDVI, socioeconomics and household composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sim, Sunhui

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of the article is evaluating spatial patterns of social vulnerability to heat in Greater Atlanta in 2015. The social vulnerability to heat is an index of socioeconomic status, household composition, land surface temperature and normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI). Land surface temperature and NDVI were derived from the red, NIR and thermal infrared (TIR) of a Landsat OLI/TIRS images collected on September 14, 2015. The research focus is on the variation of heat vulnerability in Greater Atlanta. The study found that heat vulnerability is highly clustered spatially, resulting in "hot spots" and "cool spots". The results show significant health disparities. The hotspots of social vulnerability to heat occurred in neighborhoods with lower socioeconomic status as measured by low education, low income and more poverty, greater proportion of elderly people and young children. The findings of this study are important for identifying clusters of heat vulnerability and the relationships with social factors. These significant results provide a basis for heat intervention services.

  7. Playing It Safe: Assessing Cumulative Impact and Social Vulnerability through an Environmental Justice Screening Method in the South Coast Air Basin, California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Scoggins

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Regulatory agencies, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA and state authorities like the California Air Resources Board (CARB, have sought to address the concerns of environmental justice (EJ advocates who argue that chemical-by-chemical and source-specific assessments of potential health risks of environmental hazards do not reflect the multiple environmental and social stressors faced by vulnerable communities. We propose an Environmental Justice Screening Method (EJSM as a relatively simple, flexible and transparent way to examine the relative rank of cumulative impacts and social vulnerability within metropolitan regions and determine environmental justice areas based on more than simply the demographics of income and race. We specifically organize 23 indicator metrics into three categories: (1 hazard proximity and land use; (2 air pollution exposure and estimated health risk; and (3 social and health vulnerability. For hazard proximity, the EJSM uses GIS analysis to create a base map by intersecting land use data with census block polygons, and calculates hazard proximity measures based on locations within various buffer distances. These proximity metrics are then summarized to the census tract level where they are combined with tract centroid-based estimates of pollution exposure and health risk and socio-economic status (SES measures. The result is a cumulative impacts (CI score for ranking neighborhoods within regions that can inform diverse stakeholders seeking to identify local areas that might need targeted regulatory strategies to address environmental justice concerns.

  8. Vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Issa, Sahar; van der Molen, Irna; Stel, Nora

    2015-01-01

    This chapter reviews the literature on vulnerability. Together with Chapter 3, that offers a literature review specifically focused on resilience, it lays the conceptual foundations for the empirical chapters in this edited volume. Vulnerability symbolizes the susceptibility of a certain system to

  9. The relationship between peak warming and cumulative CO2 emissions, and its use to quantify vulnerabilities in the carbon-climate-human system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raupach, Michael; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Rayner, Peter J.; Trudinger, Catherine M.

    2011-01-01

    Interactions between the carbon cycle, climate and human societies are subject to several major vulnerabilities, broadly defined as factors contributing to the risk of harm from human-induced climate change. We assess five vulnerabilities: (1) effects of increasing CO 2 on the partition of anthropogenic carbon between atmospheric, land and ocean reservoirs; (2) effects of climate change (quantified by temperature) on CO 2 fluxes; (3) uncertainty in climate sensitivity; (4) non-CO 2 radiative forcing and (5) anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Our analysis uses a physically based expression for Tp(Qp), the peak warming Tp associated with a cumulative anthropogenic CO 2 emission Qp to the time of peak warming. The approximations in this expression are evaluated using a non-linear box model of the carbon-climate system, forced with capped emissions trajectories described by an analytic form satisfying integral and smoothness constraints. The first four vulnerabilities appear as parameters that influence Tp(Qp), whereas the last appears through the independent variable. In terms of likely implications for Tp(Qp), the decreasing order of the first four vulnerabilities is: uncertainties in climate sensitivity, effects of non-CO 2 radiative forcing, effects of climate change on CO 2 fluxes and effects of increasing CO 2 on the partition of anthropogenic carbon. (authors)

  10. Assessing Vulnerability to Heat: A Geospatial Analysis for the City of Philadelphia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Barron

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Urban heat island (UHI effect is an increasingly prominent health and environmental hazard that is linked to urbanization and climate change. Greening reduces the negative impacts of UHI; trees specifically are the most effective in ambient temperature reduction. This paper investigates vulnerability to heat in the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and identifies where street trees can be planted as a public intervention. We used geospatial information systems (GIS software to map a validated Heat Vulnerability Index to identify vulnerability at the block level. Using a high-low geospatial cluster analysis, we assessed where the City of Philadelphia can most effectively plant street trees to address UHI. This information was then aggregated to the neighborhood level for more effective citizen communication and policymaking. We identified that 26 of 48 (54% neighborhoods that were vulnerable to heat also lacked street trees. Of 158 Philadelphia neighborhoods, 63 (40% contained block groups of high vulnerability to either heat or street tree infrastructure. Neighborhoods that were ranked highest in both classifications were identified in two adjacent West Philadelphia neighborhoods. Planting street trees is a public service a city can potentially reduce the negative health impacts of UHI. GIS can be used to identify and recommend street tree plantings to reduce urban heat.

  11. Connecting people and place: a new framework for reducing urban vulnerability to extreme heat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilhelmi, Olga V; Hayden, Mary H

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to increase the intensity and negative impacts of urban heat events, prompting the need to develop preparedness and adaptation strategies that reduce societal vulnerability to extreme heat. Analysis of societal vulnerability to extreme heat events requires an interdisciplinary approach that includes information about weather and climate, the natural and built environment, social processes and characteristics, interactions with stakeholders, and an assessment of community vulnerability at a local level. In this letter, we explore the relationships between people and places, in the context of urban heat stress, and present a new research framework for a multi-faceted, top-down and bottom-up analysis of local-level vulnerability to extreme heat. This framework aims to better represent societal vulnerability through the integration of quantitative and qualitative data that go beyond aggregate demographic information. We discuss how different elements of the framework help to focus attention and resources on more targeted health interventions, heat hazard mitigation and climate adaptation strategies.

  12. Cumulant generating function formula of heat transfer in ballistic systems with lead-lead coupling and general nonlinear systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huanan

    2013-03-01

    Based on a two-time observation protocol, we consider heat transfer in a given time interval tM in a lead-junction-lead system taking coupling between the leads into account. In view of the two-time observation, consistency conditions are carefully verified in our specific family of quantum histories. Furthermore, its implication is briefly explored. Then using the nonequilibrium Green's function method, we obtain an exact formula for the cumulant generating function for heat transfer between the two leads, valid in both transient and steady-state regimes. Also, a compact formula for the cumulant generating function in the long-time limit is derived, for which the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation symmetry is explicitly verified. In addition, we briefly discuss Di Ventra's repartitioning trick regarding whether the repartitioning procedure of the total Hamiltonian affects the nonequilibrium steady-state current fluctuation. All kinds of properties of nonequilibrium current fluctuations, such as the fluctuation theorem in different time regimes, could be readily given according to these exact formulas. Finally a practical formalism dealing with cumulants of heat transfer across general nonlinear quantum systems is established based on field theoretical/algebraic method.

  13. A heat vulnerability index to improve urban public health management in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Muller-Karger, Frank E; Otis, Daniel; McCarthy, Matthew J; Rodríguez, Ernesto

    2018-05-01

    Increased frequency and length of high heat episodes are leading to more cardiovascular issues and asthmatic responses among the population of San Juan, the capital of the island of Puerto Rico, USA. An urban heat island effect, which leads to foci of higher temperatures in some urban areas, can raise heat-related mortality. The objective of this research is to map the risk of high temperature in particular locations by creating heat maps of the city of San Juan. The heat vulnerability index (HVI) maps were developed using images collected by satellite-based remote sensing combined with census data. Land surface temperature was assessed using images from the Thermal Infrared Sensor flown on Landsat 8. Social determinants (e.g., age, unemployment, education and social isolation, and health insurance coverage) were analyzed by census tract. The data were examined in the context of land cover maps generated using products from the Puerto Rico Terrestrial Gap Analysis Project (USDA Forest Service). All variables were set in order to transform the indicators expressed in different units into indices between 0 and 1, and the HVI was calculated as sum of score. The tract with highest index was considered to be the most vulnerable and the lowest to be the least vulnerable. Five vulnerability classes were mapped (very high, high, moderate, low, and very low). The hottest and the most vulnerable tracts corresponded to highly built areas, including the Luis Munoz International Airport, seaports, parking lots, and high-density residential areas. Several variables contributed to increased vulnerability, including higher rates of the population living alone, disabilities, advanced age, and lack of health insurance coverage. Coolest areas corresponded to vegetated landscapes and urban water bodies. The urban HVI map will be useful to health officers, emergency preparedness personnel, the National Weather Service, and San Juan residents, as it helps to prepare for and to mitigate

  14. A heat vulnerability index to improve urban public health management in San Juan, Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez-Lázaro, Pablo; Muller-Karger, Frank E.; Otis, Daniel; McCarthy, Matthew J.; Rodríguez, Ernesto

    2018-05-01

    Increased frequency and length of high heat episodes are leading to more cardiovascular issues and asthmatic responses among the population of San Juan, the capital of the island of Puerto Rico, USA. An urban heat island effect, which leads to foci of higher temperatures in some urban areas, can raise heat-related mortality. The objective of this research is to map the risk of high temperature in particular locations by creating heat maps of the city of San Juan. The heat vulnerability index (HVI) maps were developed using images collected by satellite-based remote sensing combined with census data. Land surface temperature was assessed using images from the Thermal Infrared Sensor flown on Landsat 8. Social determinants (e.g., age, unemployment, education and social isolation, and health insurance coverage) were analyzed by census tract. The data were examined in the context of land cover maps generated using products from the Puerto Rico Terrestrial Gap Analysis Project (USDA Forest Service). All variables were set in order to transform the indicators expressed in different units into indices between 0 and 1, and the HVI was calculated as sum of score. The tract with highest index was considered to be the most vulnerable and the lowest to be the least vulnerable. Five vulnerability classes were mapped (very high, high, moderate, low, and very low). The hottest and the most vulnerable tracts corresponded to highly built areas, including the Luis Munoz International Airport, seaports, parking lots, and high-density residential areas. Several variables contributed to increased vulnerability, including higher rates of the population living alone, disabilities, advanced age, and lack of health insurance coverage. Coolest areas corresponded to vegetated landscapes and urban water bodies. The urban HVI map will be useful to health officers, emergency preparedness personnel, the National Weather Service, and San Juan residents, as it helps to prepare for and to mitigate

  15. Case-crossover analysis of heat-coded deaths and vulnerable subpopulations: Oklahoma, 1990-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Brianna F.; Brooke Anderson, G.; Johnson, Matthew G.; Brown, Sheryll; Bradley, Kristy K.; Magzamen, Sheryl

    2017-11-01

    The extent of the association between temperature and heat-coded deaths, for which heat is the primary cause of death, remains largely unknown. We explored the association between temperature and heat-coded deaths and potential interactions with various demographic and environmental factors. A total of 335 heat-coded deaths that occurred in Oklahoma from 1990 through 2011 were identified using heat-related International Classification of Diseases codes, cause-of-death nomenclature, and narrative descriptions. Conditional logistic regression models examined the association between temperature and heat index on heat-coded deaths. Interaction by demographic factors (age, sex, marital status, living alone, outdoor/heavy labor occupations) and environmental factors (ozone, PM10, PM2.5) was also explored. Temperatures ≥99 °F (the median value) were associated with approximately five times higher odds of a heat-coded death as compared to temperatures effect estimates were attenuated when exposure to heat was characterized by heat index. The interaction results suggest that effect of temperature on heat-coded deaths may depend on sex and occupation. For example, the odds of a heat-coded death among outdoor/heavy labor workers exposed to temperatures ≥99 °F was greater than expected based on the sum of the individual effects (observed OR = 14.0, 95% CI 2.7, 72.0; expected OR = 4.1 [2.8 + 2.3-1.0]). Our results highlight the extent of the association between temperature and heat-coded deaths and emphasize the need for a comprehensive, multisource definition of heat-coded deaths. Furthermore, based on the interaction results, we recommend that states implement or expand heat safety programs to protect vulnerable subpopulations, such as outdoor workers.

  16. A cross-sectional, randomized cluster sample survey of household vulnerability to extreme heat among slum dwellers in ahmedabad, india.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Kathy V; Azhar, Gulrez S; Nair, Rajesh; Knowlton, Kim; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Mavalankar, Dileep; Hess, Jeremy

    2013-06-18

    Extreme heat is a significant public health concern in India; extreme heat hazards are projected to increase in frequency and severity with climate change. Few of the factors driving population heat vulnerability are documented, though poverty is a presumed risk factor. To facilitate public health preparedness, an assessment of factors affecting vulnerability among slum dwellers was conducted in summer 2011 in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. Indicators of heat exposure, susceptibility to heat illness, and adaptive capacity, all of which feed into heat vulnerability, was assessed through a cross-sectional household survey using randomized multistage cluster sampling. Associations between heat-related morbidity and vulnerability factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to account for clustering effects. Age, preexisting medical conditions, work location, and access to health information and resources were associated with self-reported heat illness. Several of these variables were unique to this study. As sociodemographics, occupational heat exposure, and access to resources were shown to increase vulnerability, future interventions (e.g., health education) might target specific populations among Ahmedabad urban slum dwellers to reduce vulnerability to extreme heat. Surveillance and evaluations of future interventions may also be worthwhile.

  17. Urbanization Level and Vulnerability to Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kai; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Ma, Zongwei; Liu, Yang; Huang, Lei; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L

    2016-12-01

    Although adverse effects of high temperature on mortality have been studied extensively in urban areas, little is known of the heat-mortality associations outside of cities. We investigated whether heat-mortality associations differed between urban and nonurban areas and how urbanicity affected the vulnerability to heat-related mortality. We first analyzed heat-related mortality risk in each of 102 counties in Jiangsu Province, China, during 2009-2013 using a distributed-lag nonlinear model. The county-specific estimates were then pooled for more urban (percentage of urban population ≥ 57.11%) and less urban (percentage of urban population risk comparing the 99th vs. 75th percentiles of temperature was 1.43 [95% posterior intervals (PI): 1.36, 1.50] in less urban counties and 1.26 (95% PI: 1.23, 1.30) in more urban counties. The heat effects on cardiorespiratory mortality followed a similar pattern. Higher education level and prevalence of air conditioning were significantly associated with counties having lower risks, whereas percentage of elderly people was significantly associated with increased risks. Our findings reveal that nonurban areas have significant heat-related mortality risks in Jiangsu, China. These results suggest the need for enhanced adaptation planning in Chinese nonurban areas under a changing climate. Citation: Chen K, Zhou L, Chen X, Ma Z, Liu Y, Huang L, Bi J, Kinney PL. 2016. Urbanization level and vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China. Environ Health Perspect 124:1863-1869; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP204.

  18. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

    2013-07-29

    With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  19. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alana Hansen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective: The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Design: Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results: Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion: More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  20. [Heat vulnerability assessment in Jinan city: a comparison between residents living in urban centers and urban-fringe areas].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Fangjun; Xin, Zheng; Zhou, Lin; Bai, Li; Wang, Yongming; Gu, Shaohua; Liu, Shouqin; Li, Mengmeng; Sang, Shaowei; Zhang, Ji; Liu, Qiyong

    2014-06-01

    To find out the differences in regional characteristics of heat vulnerability between people living in urban centers and urban-fringe areas of Jinan city so as to provide basis for the development of adaptation measures to heat. A cross-sectional survey on heat vulnerability was conducted in urban center and urban-fringe areas of Jinan city, using a self-designed questionnaire among 801 residents at the age of 16 years or older in August 2013. Data of 23 indicators related to heat vulnerability were collected and aggregated to 7 dimensions:health and medical insurance, social networks, heat perception and adaptive behavior, economic status, resources, living environment and working environment. An index score was calculated using a balanced weighted average approach for each dimension, ranging from 0 to 1, with the closer to 1 as greater vulnerability. The scores on heat perception and adaptive behavior, economic status, resources and working environment dimensions for urban-fringe areas were 0.42,0.63,0.55 and 0.62, statistically significantly higher than the urban center area of 0.41,0.51,0.26 and 0.41. Scores of living environment, social networks and health/medical insurance dimensions for urban center area were 0.57,0.49 and 0.31, which were all higher than the urban-fringe areas of 0.50,0.46 and 0.25, with differences statistically significant. Residents living in the urban center might be more vulnerable to heat in terms of living environment, health/medical insurance and social networks while residents living in the urban-fringe areas might more be vulnerable in terms of heat perception and adaptive behavior, economic status, life resources and working environment. These facts indicated that heat vulnerability among residents could be quite different, even at a fine geographic sale. We would thus suggest that intervention strategies on protecting people from heat, should be more targeted.

  1. Cumulative effects of using pin fin heat sink and porous metal foam on thermal management of lithium-ion batteries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadian, Shahabeddin K.; Zhang, Yuwen

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • 3D transient thermal analysis of a pouch Li-ion cell has been carried out. • Using pin fin heat sink improves the temperature reduction at low pumping powers. • Using pin fin heat sink enhances the temperature uniformity at low air flow rates. • Porous aluminum foam insertion with pin fins improves temperature reduction. • Porous aluminum foam insertion with pin fins enhances temperature uniformity. - Abstract: Three-dimensional transient thermal analysis of an air-cooled module was carried out to investigate cumulative effects of using pin fin heat sink and porous metal foam on thermal management of a Li-ion (lithium-ion) battery pack. Five different cases were designed as Case 1: flow channel without any pin fin or porous metal foam insertion, Case 2: flow channel with aluminum pin fins, Case 3: flow channel with porous aluminum foam pin fins, Case 4: fully inserted flow channel with porous aluminum foam, and Case 5: fully inserted flow channel with porous aluminum foam and aluminum pin fins. The effects of porous aluminum insertions, pin fin types, air flow inlet temperature, and air flow inlet velocity on the temperature uniformity and maximum temperature inside the battery pack were systematically investigated. The results showed that using pin fin heat sink (Case 2) is appropriate only for low air flow velocities. In addition, the use of porous aluminum pin fins or embedding porous aluminum foam inside the air flow channel (Cases 3 and 4) are not beneficial for thermal management improvement. The combination of aluminum pin fins and porous aluminum foam insertion inside the air flow channel (Case 5) is a proper option that improves both temperature reduction and temperature uniformity inside the battery cell.

  2. Heat waves and cold spells: an analysis of policy response and perceptions of vulnerable populations in the UK

    OpenAIRE

    Johanna Wolf; W Neil Adger; Irene Lorenzoni

    2010-01-01

    Heat waves and cold spells pose ongoing seasonal risks to the health and well-being of vulnerable individuals. Current attempts to address these risks in the UK are implemented through fuel-poverty strategies and heat-wave planning. This paper examines evidence from the UK on whether heat waves and cold spells are addressed differently by public policy in the UK given that risks are mediated by similar perceptions that shape behavioural responses by vulnerable individuals. It is based on a re...

  3. Vulnerability to extreme-heat-associated hospitalization in three counties in Michigan, USA, 2000-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogbomo, Adesuwa S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; O'Neill, Marie S.; Konen, Tess; Cameron, Lorraine; Wahl, Robert

    2017-05-01

    With climate change, extreme heat (EH) events are increasing, so it is important to understand who is vulnerable to heat-associated morbidity. We determined the association between EH and hospitalizations for all natural causes; cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal diseases; diabetes mellitus; and acute myocardial infarction in Michigan, USA, at different intensities and durations. We assessed confounding by ozone and how individual characteristics and health insurance payer (a proxy for income) modified these associations. We obtained Michigan Inpatient Database, National Climatic Data Center, and US Environmental Protection Agency ozone data for May-September, 2000-2009 for three Michigan counties. We employed a case-crossover design and modeled EH as an indicator for temperature above the 95th, 97th, or 99th percentile thresholds for 1, 2, 3, or 4 days. We examined effect modification by patient age, race, sex, and health insurance payer and pooled the county results. Among non-whites, the pooled odds ratio for hospitalization on EH (97th percentile threshold) vs. non-EH days for renal diseases was 1.37 (95 % CI = 1.13-1.66), which increased with increasing EH intensity, but was null among whites (OR = 1.00, 95 % CI = 0.81, 1.25). We observed a null association between EH and cardiovascular hospitalization. EH (99th percentile threshold) was associated with myocardial infarction hospitalizations. Confounding by ozone was minimal. EH was associated with hospitalizations for renal disease among non-whites. This information on vulnerability to heat-associated morbidity helps characterize the public health burden of EH and target interventions including patient education.

  4. Ambient high temperature and mortality in Jinan, China: A study of heat thresholds and vulnerable populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Xu, Xin; Yang, Jun; Liu, Zhidong; Xu, Lei; Gao, Jinghong; Liu, Xiaobo; Wu, Haixia; Wang, Jun; Yu, Jieqiong; Jiang, Baofa; Liu, Qiyong

    2017-07-01

    Understanding the health consequences of continuously rising temperatures-as is projected for China-is important in terms of developing heat-health adaptation and intervention programs. This study aimed to examine the association between mortality and daily maximum (T max ), mean (T mean ), and minimum (T min ) temperatures in warmer months; to explore threshold temperatures; and to identify optimal heat indicators and vulnerable populations. Daily data on temperature and mortality were obtained for the period 2007-2013. Heat thresholds for condition-specific mortality were estimated using an observed/expected analysis. We used a generalised additive model with a quasi-Poisson distribution to examine the association between mortality and T max /T min /T mean values higher than the threshold values, after adjustment for covariates. T max /T mean /T min thresholds were 32/28/24°C for non-accidental deaths; 32/28/24°C for cardiovascular deaths; 35/31/26°C for respiratory deaths; and 34/31/28°C for diabetes-related deaths. For each 1°C increase in T max /T mean /T min above the threshold, the mortality risk of non-accidental-, cardiovascular-, respiratory, and diabetes-related death increased by 2.8/5.3/4.8%, 4.1/7.2/6.6%, 6.6/25.3/14.7%, and 13.3/30.5/47.6%, respectively. Thresholds for mortality differed according to health condition when stratified by sex, age, and education level. For non-accidental deaths, effects were significant in individuals aged ≥65 years (relative risk=1.038, 95% confidence interval: 1.026-1.050), but not for those ≤64 years. For most outcomes, women and people ≥65 years were more vulnerable. High temperature significantly increases the risk of mortality in the population of Jinan, China. Climate change with rising temperatures may bring about the situation worse. Public health programs should be improved and implemented to prevent and reduce health risks during hot days, especially for the identified vulnerable groups. Copyright

  5. Analysing the vulnerability of buildings to climate change: Summer heat and flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Nikolowski

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The REGKLAM project (Development and Testing of an Integrated Regional Climate Change Adaption Programme for the Model Region Dresden forms part of the KLIMZUG programme (Managing Climate Change in the Regions for the Future funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. It is concerned with the adaptation of important sectors of the Dresden region to climate change. One aim is to investigate and where necessary reduce the vulnerability of buildings and settlement structures to changing climatic conditions. This paper looks at flood damage as an example for the potential of climate change impacts on buildings. In ex-post analyses and projections, the article presents the results of regional climatological studies. Interfaces between meteorology and civil engineering are discussed. On the basis of a typology of building stock in the region, the vulnerability of given building types to given impacts was analysed in the form of impact models. The examples of environmental causes chosen were summer heat and flooding. The paper concludes with a discussion of how buildings can be adapted to cope with the impacts described.

  6. Analysing the vulnerability of buildings to climate change. Summer heat and flooding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikolowski, Johannes; Zimm, Jakob; Naumann, Thomas [Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development, Dresden (Germany); Goldberg, Valeri [Technische Univ. Dresden (Germany). Chair of Meteorology

    2013-04-15

    The REGKLAM project (Development and Testing of an Integrated Regional Climate Change Adaption Programme for the Model Region Dresden) forms part of the KLIMZUG programme (Managing Climate Change in the Regions for the Future) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. It is concerned with the adaptation of important sectors of the Dresden region to climate change. One aim is to investigate and where necessary reduce the vulnerability of buildings and settlement structures to changing climatic conditions. This paper looks at flood damage as an example for the potential of climate change impacts on buildings. In ex-post analyses and projections, the article presents the results of regional climatological studies. Interfaces between meteorology and civil engineering are discussed. On the basis of a typology of building stock in the region, the vulnerability of given building types to given impacts was analysed in the form of impact models. The examples of environmental causes chosen were summer heat and flooding. The paper concludes with a discussion of how buildings can be adapted to cope with the impacts described. (orig.)

  7. Energy vulnerability. Far from urban centres, space heating and fuel costs weigh heavily on the household budget

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cochez, Nicolas; Durieux, Eric; Levy, David; Moreau, Sylvain; Baudu-Baret, Claude

    2015-01-01

    For 15% of resident households in metropolitan France, the proportion of income going on home and water heating is high, in the sense that it is twice the median housing-expense to income ratio. With this same criterion, the cost of the most mandatory car journeys is high for 10% of households, in relation to their budgets. In all, 22% of households (i.e. 5.9 million) are experiencing energy vulnerability for one or other of the items of consumption, and 3% of households (i.e. 700 000) are vulnerable for both items. The risk of vulnerability varies over national territory, with differences depending on the items of expenditure considered: climate is the primary factor where disparity in housing-related vulnerability is concerned, whereas the predominant factor for travel is distance from urban centres

  8. Can green roofs reduce urban heat stress in vulnerable urban communities: A coupled atmospheric and social modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, A.; Woodruff, S.; Budhathoki, M.; Hamlet, A. F.; Fernando, H. J. S.; Chen, F.

    2017-12-01

    Urban areas provide organized, engineered, sociological and economical infrastructure designed to provide a high quality of life, but the implementation and management of urban infrastructure has been a continued challenge. Increasing urbanization, warming climate, as well as anthropogenic heat emissions that accompany urban development generates "stress". This rapidly increasing `urban stress' affects the sustainability of cities, making populations more vulnerable to extreme hazards, such as heat. Cities are beginning to extensively use green roofs as a potential urban heat mitigation strategy. This study explores the potential of green roofs to reduce summertime temperatures in the most vulnerable neighborhoods of the Chicago metropolitan area by combining social vulnerability indices (a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity), and temperatures from mesoscale model. Numerical simulations using urbanized version the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were performed to measure rooftop temperatures, a representative variable for exposure in this study. The WRF simulations were dynamically coupled with a green roof algorithm as a part of urban parameterization within WRF. Specifically, the study examines roof surface temperature with changing green roof fractions and how would they help reduce exposure to heat stress for vulnerable urban communities. This study shows an example of applied research that can directly benefit urban communities and be used by urban planners to evaluate mitigation strategies.

  9. Application of approximations for joint cumulative k-distributions for mixtures to FSK radiation heat transfer in multi-component high temperature non-LTE plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maurente, André; França, Francis H.R.; Miki, Kenji; Howell, John R.

    2012-01-01

    Approximations for joint cumulative k-distribution for mixtures are efficient for full spectrum k-distribution (FSK) computations. These approximations provide reduction of the database that is necessary to perform FSK computation when compared to the direct approach, which uses cumulative k-distributions computed from the spectrum of the mixture, and also less computational expensive when compared to techniques in which RTE's are required to be solved for each component of the mixture. The aim of the present paper is to extend the approximations for joint cumulative k-distributions for non-LTE media. For doing that, a FSK to non-LTE media formulation well-suited to be applied along with approximations for joint cumulative k-distributions is presented. The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by solving the radiation heat transfer in non-LTE high temperature plasmas composed of N, O, N 2 , NO, N 2 + and mixtures of these species. The two more efficient approximations, that is, the superposition and multiplication are employed and analyzed.

  10. Assessing Vulnerability to Urban Heat: A Study of Disproportionate Heat Exposure and Access to Refuge by Socio-Demographic Status in Portland, Oregon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jackson Voelkel

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Extreme urban heat is a powerful environmental stressor which poses a significant threat to human health and well-being. Exacerbated by the urban heat island phenomenon, heat events are expected to become more intense and frequent as climate change progresses, though we have limited understanding of the impact of such events on vulnerable populations at a neighborhood or census block group level. Focusing on the City of Portland, Oregon, this study aimed to determine which socio-demographic populations experience disproportionate exposure to extreme heat, as well as the level of access to refuge in the form of public cooling centers or residential central air conditioning. During a 2014 heat wave, temperature data were recorded using a vehicle-traverse collection method, then extrapolated to determine average temperature at the census block group level. Socio-demographic factors including income, race, education, age, and English speaking ability were tested using statistical assessments to identify significant relationships with heat exposure and access to refuge from extreme heat. Results indicate that groups with limited adaptive capacity, including those in poverty and non-white populations, are at higher risk for heat exposure, suggesting an emerging concern of environmental justice as it relates to climate change. The paper concludes by emphasizing the importance of cultural sensitivity and inclusion, in combination with effectively distributing cooling centers in areas where the greatest burden befalls vulnerable populations.

  11. Assessing Vulnerability to Urban Heat: A Study of Disproportionate Heat Exposure and Access to Refuge by Socio-Demographic Status in Portland, Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voelkel, Jackson; Hellman, Dana; Sakuma, Ryu; Shandas, Vivek

    2018-03-30

    Extreme urban heat is a powerful environmental stressor which poses a significant threat to human health and well-being. Exacerbated by the urban heat island phenomenon, heat events are expected to become more intense and frequent as climate change progresses, though we have limited understanding of the impact of such events on vulnerable populations at a neighborhood or census block group level. Focusing on the City of Portland, Oregon, this study aimed to determine which socio-demographic populations experience disproportionate exposure to extreme heat, as well as the level of access to refuge in the form of public cooling centers or residential central air conditioning. During a 2014 heat wave, temperature data were recorded using a vehicle-traverse collection method, then extrapolated to determine average temperature at the census block group level. Socio-demographic factors including income, race, education, age, and English speaking ability were tested using statistical assessments to identify significant relationships with heat exposure and access to refuge from extreme heat. Results indicate that groups with limited adaptive capacity, including those in poverty and non-white populations, are at higher risk for heat exposure, suggesting an emerging concern of environmental justice as it relates to climate change. The paper concludes by emphasizing the importance of cultural sensitivity and inclusion, in combination with effectively distributing cooling centers in areas where the greatest burden befalls vulnerable populations.

  12. A Case-Only Study of Vulnerability to Heat Wave-Related Mortality in New York City (2000-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madrigano, Jaime; Ito, Kazuhiko; Johnson, Sarah; Kinney, Patrick L; Matte, Thomas

    2015-07-01

    As a result of climate change, the frequency of extreme temperature events is expected to increase, and such events are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Vulnerability patterns, and corresponding adaptation strategies, are most usefully conceptualized at a local level. We used a case-only analysis to examine subject and neighborhood characteristics that modified the association between heat waves and mortality. All deaths of New York City residents from 2000 through 2011 were included in this analysis. Meteorological data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Modifying characteristics were obtained from the death record and geographic data sets. A total of 234,042 adult deaths occurred during the warm season of our study period. Compared with other warm-season days, deaths during heat waves were more likely to occur in black (non-Hispanic) individuals than other race/ethnicities [odds ratio (OR) = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.12], more likely to occur at home than in institutions and hospital settings (OR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.16), and more likely among those living in census tracts that received greater public assistance (OR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.09). Finally, deaths during heat waves were more likely among residents in areas of the city with higher relative daytime summer surface temperature and less likely among residents living in areas with more green space. Mortality during heat waves varies widely within a city. Understanding which individuals and neighborhoods are most vulnerable can help guide local preparedness efforts.

  13. The prevalence of heat-related cardiorespiratory symptoms: the vulnerable groups identified from the National FINRISK 2007 Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Näyhä, Simo; Rintamäki, Hannu; Donaldson, Gavin; Hassi, Juhani; Jousilahti, Pekka; Laatikainen, Tiina; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Ikäheimo, Tiina M.

    2017-04-01

    The prevalence of heat-related cardiorespiratory symptoms among vulnerable groups is not well known. We therefore estimated the prevalence of heat-related cardiorespiratory symptoms among the Finnish population and their associations with social and individual vulnerability factors. The data came from the National FINRISK 2007 Study, in which 4007 men and women aged 25-74 answered questions on heat-related cardiorespiratory symptoms in the Oulu Cold and Heat Questionnaire 2007. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs), their 95 % confidence intervals (CIs), and model-predicted prevalence figures. The prevalence of heat-related cardiorespiratory symptoms was 12 %. It increased with age, from 3 % at the age of 25 years to 28 % at the age of 75 years. The symptoms were associated with pre-existing lung (OR 3.93; CI 3.01-5.13) and cardiovascular diseases (OR 2.27; 1.78-2.89); being a pensioner (OR 2.91; 1.65-5.28), unemployed (OR 2.82; 1.47-5.48), or working in agriculture (OR 2.27; 1.14-4.46) compared with working in industry; having only basic vs academic education (OR 1.98; 1.31-3.05); being female (OR 1.94; 1.51-2.50); being heavy vs light alcohol consumer (OR 1.89; 1.02-3.32); undertaking hard vs light physical work (OR 1.48;1.06-2.07); and being inactive vs active in leisure time (OR 1.97; 1.39-2.81). The adjusted prevalence of symptoms showed a wide range of variation, from 3 to 61 % depending on sex, age, professional field, education, and pre-existing lung and cardiovascular diseases. In conclusion, heat-related cardiorespiratory symptoms are commonly perceived among people with pre-existing lung or cardiovascular disease, agricultural workers, unemployed, pensioners, and people having only basic education. This information is needed for any planning and targeting measures to reduce the burden of summer heat.

  14. Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benmarhnia, Tarik; Grenier, Patrick; Brand, Allan; Fournier, Michel; Deguen, Séverine; Smargiassi, Audrey

    2015-09-22

    We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021-2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future.

  15. Cumulative effects of heat exposure and storage conditions of Oxytocin-in-Uniject in rural Ghana: implications for scale up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullany, Luke C; Newton, Sam; Afari-Asiedu, Samuel; Adiibokah, Edward; Agyemang, Charlotte T; Cofie, Patience; Brooke, Steve; Owusu-Agyei, Seth; Stanton, Cynthia K

    2014-08-01

    Postpartum hemorrhage can be reduced substantially in home deliveries attended by community-based workers by using Oxytocin-in-Uniject (OIU) devices affixed with temperature-time indicators. We characterized the distribution of time to discard of these devices when stored under normal field conditions in Ghana. Two drug storage simulation studies were conducted in rural Ghana in 2011 and 2012. Devices were transported under refrigeration from manufacture (Argentina) to storage at the study site. Twenty-three field workers each stored at home (unrefrigerated) 25 OIU devices and monitored them daily to record: (1) time to transition from usable to unusable, and (2) continuous digital ambient temperature to determine heat exposure over the simulation period. Time to discard was estimated and compared with mean kinetic temperature exposure of the devices during the shipment and storage phases and with characteristics of the storage locations using Weibull regression models. We used the time to discard distributions in a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate wastage rates in a hypothetical program setting. Time for shipment and transfer to long-term refrigerated storage and mean kinetic temperature during the shipment phase was 8.6 days/10.3°C and 13.4 days/12.1°C, for the first and second simulation studies, respectively. Median (range) time to discard when stored under field conditions (unrefrigerated) was 43 (6 to 59) days and 33 (14 to 50) days, respectively. Mean time to discard was 10.0 days shorter in the second simulation, during which mean kinetic temperature exposure was 3.9°C higher. Simulating a monthly distribution system and assuming typical usage, predicted wastage of product was less than 10%. The time to discard of devices was highly sensitive to small changes in temperature exposure. Under field conditions typical in rural Ghana, OIU packages will have a half-life of approximately 30 to 40 days based on the temperature monitor used during the study

  16. Reef calcifiers are adapted to episodic heat stress but vulnerable to sustained warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuhr, Marleen; Reymond, Claire E; Rieder, Vera; Hallock, Pamela; Rahnenführer, Jörg; Westphal, Hildegard; Kucera, Michal

    2017-01-01

    Shallow marine ecosystems naturally experience fluctuating physicochemical conditions across spatial and temporal scales. Widespread coral-bleaching events, induced by prolonged heat stress, highlight the importance of how the duration and frequency of thermal stress influence the adaptive physiology of photosymbiotic calcifiers. Large benthic foraminifera harboring algal endosymbionts are major tropical carbonate producers and bioindicators of ecosystem health. Like corals, they are sensitive to thermal stress and bleach at temperatures temporarily occurring in their natural habitat and projected to happen more frequently. However, their thermal tolerance has been studied so far only by chronic exposure, so how they respond under more realistic episodic heat-event scenarios remains unknown. Here, we determined the physiological responses of Amphistegina gibbosa, an abundant western Atlantic foraminifera, to four different treatments--control, single, episodic, and chronic exposure to the same thermal stress (32°C)--in controlled laboratory cultures. Exposure to chronic thermal stress reduced motility and growth, while antioxidant capacity was elevated, and photosymbiont variables (coloration, oxygen-production rates, chlorophyll a concentration) indicated extensive bleaching. In contrast, single- and episodic-stress treatments were associated with higher motility and growth, while photosymbiont variables remained stable. The effects of single and episodic heat events were similar, except for the presumable occurrence of reproduction, which seemed to be suppressed by both episodic and chronic stress. The otherwise different responses between treatments with thermal fluctuations and chronic stress indicate adaptation to thermal peaks, but not to chronic exposure expected to ensue when baseline temperatures are elevated by climate change. This firstly implies that marine habitats with a history of fluctuating thermal stress potentially support resilient

  17. Energy vulnerability. Away from urban centers, space heating and fuels weight heavily in the budget. Insee Premiere no. 1530 - January 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cochez, Nicolas; Durieux, Eric; Levy, David

    2015-01-01

    For 15% of resident households in metropolitan France, the proportion of income going on home and water heating is high, in the sense that it is twice the median housing-expense to income ratio. With this same criterion, the cost of the most mandatory car journeys is high for 10% of households, in relation to their budgets. In all, 22% of households (i.e. 5.9 million) are experiencing energy vulnerability for one or other of the items of consumption, and 3% of households (i.e. 700 000) are vulnerable for both items. The risk of vulnerability varies over national territory, with differences depending on the items of expenditure considered: climate is the primary factor where disparity in housing-related vulnerability is concerned, whereas the predominant factor for travel is distance from urban centres

  18. Vulnerable Genders, Vulnerable Loves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schleicher, Marianne

    2015-01-01

    This chapter analyses religious reflections on vulnerable genders and vulnerable loves from the Hebrew Bible to early Rabbinic literature. It is based on theories by inter alia Donna Haraway on complex identities, Turner and Maryanski on love as a prerequisite for survival, Michel Foucault...... on gathering knowledge and its often unpremeditated effect of recognition and inclusion, and Judith Butler on cultural intelligibility and subversion from within. With these theories as a departing point for the analysis, the chapter links the vulnerability of complex identities with the vulnerability...... of cultures which leads to the overall understanding that culture can accommodate complex identities associated with individual and cultural vulnerability as long as the overall survival of the culture is not threatened. This understanding questions the feasibility of the ethical position of thinkers...

  19. A Longitudinal Study of Social Relationships and Networks in the Transition to and within Adulthood for Vulnerable Young Adults at Ages 24, 29 and 34 Years: Compensation, Reinforcement or Cumulative Disadvantages?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bele, Irene Velsvik; Kvalsund, Rune

    2016-01-01

    This longitudinal study, spanning from 1995 through 2012, followed vulnerable youth from upper secondary school (T1) as they made the transition to their early twenties (T2), late twenties (T3) and mid-thirties (T4). We investigated their social network relationships in different phases of adult life, focusing mainly on factors that explain…

  20. Vulnerability to Urban Heat Island in São Paulo Municipality: An Approach to Support the Mitigation Measures Implementation in Urban Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Siqueira-Gay

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In the practice of urban and environmental planning, especially in the context of adaptation to environmental changes, there is a demand for studies that integrate social, economic and environmental information of the population and related risk. Particularly in large urban centers, waterproofing and verticalization have the potential to increase local air temperature, triggering the phenomenon of heat islands. Therefore, this phenomenon has side effects such as public health problems, pollution and changes in the air circulation. In view of the risks and consequences of the urban heat islands, this paper aims to analyze the priority areas for implementing measures to mitigate the effects of the urban heat islands phenomenon in São Paulo City (Brazil. A vulnerability index was proposed considering the social and environmental dimensions, relating the capacity of adaptation, sensitivity and exposure to the occurrence of the phenomenon of urban heat islands. Besides that, measures to mitigate the effects associated with heat islands in urban planning were identified. The central regions are critical for exposure and the outskirts, for adaptive capacity and sensitivity, both considered priorities for the implementation of mitigation measures. In addition, strategies such as implementation and conservation of green spaces, preservation of water bodies, urban design change, as well as use of materials with high reflectance are also listed and partially foreseen in the Municipal Strategic Master Plan to mitigate the effects of urban heat island.

  1. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, Paul N.; Scheuer, Ernest M.; Nolty, Robert

    1990-01-01

    Overflow and underflow in sums prevented. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program, CUMPOIS, one of two computer programs that make calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines cumulative Poisson distribution, used to evaluate cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and cdf for X (sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Written in C.

  2. Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to global warming. Part I: model description and role of heat generated by organic matter decomposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khvorostyanov, D.V.; Ciais, G. (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l' Environnement, Saclay (France)); Krinner, G. (Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, St Martin d' Heres (France)). e-mail: Dimitry.Khvorostiyanov@lsce.ipsl.fr; Heimann, M. (Max-Planck Inst. of Biogeochemistry, Jena (DE)); Zimov, S.A. (Northeast Science Station, Cherskii (RU))

    2008-07-01

    We constructed a new model to study the sensitivity of permafrost carbon stocks to future climate warming. The one-dimensional model solves an equation for diffusion of heat penetrating from the overlying atmosphere and takes into account additional in situ heat production by active soil microorganisms. Decomposition of frozen soil organic matter and produced CO{sub 2} and methane fluxes result from an interplay of soil heat conduction and phase transitions, respiration, methanogenesis and methanotrophy processes. Respiration and methanotrophy consume soil oxygen and thus can only develop in an aerated top-soil column. In contrast, methanogenesis is not limited by oxygen and can be sustained within the deep soil, releasing sufficient heat to further thaw in depth the frozen carbon-rich soil organic matter. Heat production that accompanies decomposition and methanotrophy can be an essential process providing positive feedback to atmospheric warming through self-sustaining transformation of initially frozen soil carbon into CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4}. This supplementary heat becomes crucial, however, only under certain climate conditions. Oxygen limitation to soil respiration slows down the process, so that the mean flux of carbon released during the phase of intense decomposition is more than two times less than without oxygen limitation. Taking into account methanogenesis increases the mean carbon flux by 20%. Part II of this study deals with mobilization of frozen carbon stock in transient climate change scenarios with more elaborated methane module, which makes it possible to consider more general cases with various site configurations. Part I (this manuscript) studies mobilization of 400 GtC carbon stock of the Yedoma in response to a stepwise rapid warming focusing on the role of supplementary heat that is released to the soil during decomposition of organic matter

  3. Divergent Cumulative Cultural Evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Marriott, Chris; Chebib, Jobran

    2016-01-01

    Divergent cumulative cultural evolution occurs when the cultural evolutionary trajectory diverges from the biological evolutionary trajectory. We consider the conditions under which divergent cumulative cultural evolution can occur. We hypothesize that two conditions are necessary. First that genetic and cultural information are stored separately in the agent. Second cultural information must be transferred horizontally between agents of different generations. We implement a model with these ...

  4. Heat Shock Protein Beta-1 Modifies Anterior to Posterior Purkinje Cell Vulnerability in a Mouse Model of Niemann-Pick Type C Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chan Chung

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Selective neuronal vulnerability is characteristic of most degenerative disorders of the CNS, yet mechanisms underlying this phenomenon remain poorly characterized. Many forms of cerebellar degeneration exhibit an anterior-to-posterior gradient of Purkinje cell loss including Niemann-Pick type C1 (NPC disease, a lysosomal storage disorder characterized by progressive neurological deficits that often begin in childhood. Here, we sought to identify candidate genes underlying vulnerability of Purkinje cells in anterior cerebellar lobules using data freely available in the Allen Brain Atlas. This approach led to the identification of 16 candidate neuroprotective or susceptibility genes. We demonstrate that one candidate gene, heat shock protein beta-1 (HSPB1, promoted neuronal survival in cellular models of NPC disease through a mechanism that involved inhibition of apoptosis. Additionally, we show that over-expression of wild type HSPB1 or a phosphomimetic mutant in NPC mice slowed the progression of motor impairment and diminished cerebellar Purkinje cell loss. We confirmed the modulatory effect of Hspb1 on Purkinje cell degeneration in vivo, as knockdown by Hspb1 shRNA significantly enhanced neuron loss. These results suggest that strategies to promote HSPB1 activity may slow the rate of cerebellar degeneration in NPC disease and highlight the use of bioinformatics tools to uncover pathways leading to neuronal protection in neurodegenerative disorders.

  5. Urban Form and Extreme Heat Events: Are Sprawling Cities More Vulnerable to Climate Change Than Compact Cities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Brian; Hess, Jeremy J.; Frumkin, Howard

    2010-01-01

    Background Extreme heat events (EHEs) are increasing in frequency in large U.S. cities and are responsible for a greater annual number of climate-related fatalities, on average, than any other form of extreme weather. In addition, low-density, sprawling patterns of urban development have been associated with enhanced surface temperatures in urbanized areas. Objectives In this study. we examined the association between urban form at the level of the metropolitan region and the frequency of EHEs over a five-decade period. Methods We employed a widely published sprawl index to measure the association between urban form in 2000 and the mean annual rate of change in EHEs between 1956 and 2005. Results We found that the rate of increase in the annual number of EHEs between 1956 and 2005 in the most sprawling metropolitan regions was more than double the rate of increase observed in the most compact metropolitan regions. Conclusions The design and management of land use in metropolitan regions may offer an important tool for adapting to the heat-related health effects associated with ongoing climate change. PMID:21114000

  6. CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

  7. Cumulation of light nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldin, A.M.; Bondarev, V.K.; Golovanov, L.B.

    1977-01-01

    Limit fragmentation of light nuclei (deuterium, helium) bombarded with 8,6 GeV/c protons was investigated. Fragments (pions, protons and deuterons) were detected within the emission angle 50-150 deg with regard to primary protons and within the pulse range 150-180 MeV/c. By the kinematics of collision of a primary proton with a target at rest the fragments observed correspond to a target mass upto 3 GeV. Thus, the data obtained correspond to teh cumulation upto the third order

  8. CROSSER - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CROSSER, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), can be used independently of one another. CROSSER can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CROSSER calculates the point at which the reliability of a k-out-of-n system equals the common reliability of the n components. It is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The CROSSER program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CROSSER was developed in 1988.

  9. Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

  10. Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

  11. NEWTONP - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, NEWTONP, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. NEWTONP can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. NEWTONP calculates the probably p required to yield a given system reliability V for a k-out-of-n system. It can also be used to determine the Clopper-Pearson confidence limits (either one-sided or two-sided) for the parameter p of a Bernoulli distribution. NEWTONP can determine Bayesian probability limits for a proportion (if the beta prior has positive integer parameters). It can determine the percentiles of incomplete beta distributions with positive integer parameters. It can also determine the percentiles of F distributions and the midian plotting positions in probability plotting. NEWTONP is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. NEWTONP is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The NEWTONP program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. NEWTONP was developed in 1988.

  12. Redistributing vulnerabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Padmawati, Retna Siwi

    2015-01-01

    It is widely accepted that the social distribution of vulnerability in a given society may turn hazardous events into disasters. This distributional approach draws attention to continuities that explain catastrophes by virtue of the workings of society prior to the event. In this paper, we draw...... attention to the social processes whereby vulnerability is modified and renegotiated during the post-disaster period where resources for disaster alleviation and reconstruction enter local communities. Specifically, we explore the social dynamics of house damage classification in the wake of the 2006...... Central Java earthquake, and we explore relations between citizens and the state during post-disaster house reconstruction. We argue that disastrous outcomes of catastrophic events do not follow pre-existing fault lines of vulnerability in a simple or predictable manner, and that the social process...

  13. Cumulative radiation effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, J.; Gray, W.M.; Watson, E.R.

    1977-01-01

    In five previous papers, the concept of Cumulative Radiation Effect (CRE) has been presented as a scale of accumulative sub-tolerance radiation damage, with a unique value of the CRE describing a specific level of radiation effect. Simple nomographic and tabular methods for the solution of practical problems in radiotherapy are now described. An essential feature of solving a CRE problem is firstly to present it in a concise and readily appreciated form, and, to do this, nomenclature has been introduced to describe schedules and regimes as compactly as possible. Simple algebraic equations have been derived to describe the CRE achieved by multi-schedule regimes. In these equations, the equivalence conditions existing at the junctions between schedules are not explicit and the equations are based on the CREs of the constituent schedules assessed individually without reference to their context in the regime as a whole. This independent evaluation of CREs for each schedule has resulted in a considerable simplification in the calculation of complex problems. The calculations are further simplified by the use of suitable tables and nomograms, so that the mathematics involved is reduced to simple arithmetical operations which require at the most the use of a slide rule but can be done by hand. The order of procedure in the presentation and calculation of CRE problems can be summarised in an evaluation procedure sheet. The resulting simple methods for solving practical problems of any complexity on the CRE-system are demonstrated by a number of examples. (author)

  14. Assessing vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellmuth, M.; Kabat, P.

    2003-01-01

    It is in the shantytowns and rural villages of the Third World that floods and droughts strike hardest and deepest. Vulnerability to the vagaries of climate depends not only on location, but, crucially, on the capacity of the victims to cope with the impacts of extreme weather. So, where are the

  15. Cumulative radiation effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, J.; Cain, O.; Gray, W.M.

    1977-01-01

    Cumulative Radiation Effect (CRE) represents a scale of accumulative sub-tolerance radiation damage, with a unique value of the CRE describing a specific level of radiation effect. Computer calculations have been used to simplify the evaluation of problems associated with the applications of the CRE-system in radiotherapy. In a general appraisal of the applications of computers to the CRE-system, the various problems encountered in clinical radiotherapy have been categorised into those involving the evaluation of a CRE at a point in tissue and those involving the calculation of CRE distributions. As a general guide, the computer techniques adopted at the Glasgow Institute of Radiotherapeutics for the solution of CRE problems are presented, and consist basically of a package of three interactive programs for point CRE calculations and a Fortran program which calculates CRE distributions for iso-effect treatment planning. Many examples are given to demonstrate the applications of these programs, and special emphasis has been laid on the problem of treating a point in tissue with different doses per fraction on alternate treatment days. The wide range of possible clinical applications of the CRE-system has been outlined and described under the categories of routine clinical applications, retrospective and prospective surveys of patient treatment, and experimental and theoretical research. Some of these applications such as the results of surveys and studies of time optimisation of treatment schedules could have far-reaching consequences and lead to significant improvements in treatment and cure rates with the minimum damage to normal tissue. (author)

  16. Secant cumulants and toric geometry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michalek, M.; Oeding, L.; Zwiernik, P.W.

    2012-01-01

    We study the secant line variety of the Segre product of projective spaces using special cumulant coordinates adapted for secant varieties. We show that the secant variety is covered by open normal toric varieties. We prove that in cumulant coordinates its ideal is generated by binomial quadrics. We

  17. Vulnerable Hunter

    OpenAIRE

    Md.Asha Begum; Y.VishnuPriya; V.ManoranjanBabu; ,O.Srinivasu

    2016-01-01

    This project "VULNERABLE HUNTER" application main aim is to detect risk in our mobile applications. This application contains modules like Fetch Application, Generate Score, Uninstall and Display Graph. Through this application it detects risk so that this application is very useful to smart phone users Now-a-days so many people are using smart phones and people are crazy about new apps. But by installing all the applications into our mobile may reduce its performance. Some apps c...

  18. The challenge of cumulative impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masden, Elisabeth

    2011-07-01

    Full text: As governments pledge to combat climate change, wind turbines are becoming a common feature of terrestrial and marine environments. Although wind power is a renewable energy source and a means of reducing carbon emissions, there is a need to ensure that the wind farms themselves do not damage the environment. There is particular concern over the impacts of wind farms on bird populations, and with increasing numbers of wind farm proposals, the concern focuses on cumulative impacts. Individually, a wind farm, or indeed any activity/action, may have minor effects on the environment, but collectively these may be significant, potentially greater than the sum of the individual parts acting alone. Cumulative impact assessment is a legislative requirement of environmental impact assessment but such assessments are rarely adequate restricting the acquisition of basic knowledge about the cumulative impacts of wind farms on bird populations. Reasons for this are numerous but a recurring theme is the lack of clear definitions and guidance on how to perform cumulative assessments. Here we present a conceptual framework and include illustrative examples to demonstrate how the framework can be used to improve the planning and execution of cumulative impact assessments. The core concept is that explicit definitions of impacts, actions and scales of assessment are required to reduce uncertainty in the process of assessment and improve communication between stake holders. Only when it is clear what has been included within a cumulative assessment, is it possible to make comparisons between developments. Our framework requires improved legislative guidance on the actions to include in assessments, and advice on the appropriate baselines against which to assess impacts. Cumulative impacts are currently considered on restricted scales (spatial and temporal) relating to individual development assessments. We propose that benefits would be gained from elevating cumulative

  19. Transforming vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Patricia S; Zhang, Xinwei Esther; Meleis, Afaf I

    2003-11-01

    Asian American immigrant women engaged in filial caregiving are at special risk for health problems due to complex contextual factors related to immigration, cultural traditions, and role transition. This study examines the experience of two groups of immigrant Asian American women who are caring for older parents. A total of 41 women (22 Chinese American and 19 Filipino American) were interviewed in a study based on Strauss and Corbin's grounded theory methodology. The women were determined to be loyal to their traditional culture, which included strong filial values, while adapting to a new culture. Through the struggle of meeting role expectations and coping with paradox, the women mobilized personal and family resources to transform vulnerability into strength and well-being.

  20. Applicability of vulnerability maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersen, L.J.; Gosk, E.

    1989-01-01

    A number of aspects to vulnerability maps are discussed: the vulnerability concept, mapping purposes, possible users, and applicability of vulnerability maps. Problems associated with general-type vulnerability mapping, including large-scale maps, universal pollutant, and universal pollution scenario are also discussed. An alternative approach to vulnerability assessment - specific vulnerability mapping for limited areas, specific pollutant, and predefined pollution scenario - is suggested. A simplification of the vulnerability concept is proposed in order to make vulnerability mapping more objective and by this means more comparable. An extension of the vulnerability concept to the rest of the hydrogeological cycle (lakes, rivers, and the sea) is proposed. Some recommendations regarding future activities are given

  1. Cumulative risk, cumulative outcome: a 20-year longitudinal study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leslie Atkinson

    Full Text Available Cumulative risk (CR models provide some of the most robust findings in the developmental literature, predicting numerous and varied outcomes. Typically, however, these outcomes are predicted one at a time, across different samples, using concurrent designs, longitudinal designs of short duration, or retrospective designs. We predicted that a single CR index, applied within a single sample, would prospectively predict diverse outcomes, i.e., depression, intelligence, school dropout, arrest, smoking, and physical disease from childhood to adulthood. Further, we predicted that number of risk factors would predict number of adverse outcomes (cumulative outcome; CO. We also predicted that early CR (assessed at age 5/6 explains variance in CO above and beyond that explained by subsequent risk (assessed at ages 12/13 and 19/20. The sample consisted of 284 individuals, 48% of whom were diagnosed with a speech/language disorder. Cumulative risk, assessed at 5/6-, 12/13-, and 19/20-years-old, predicted aforementioned outcomes at age 25/26 in every instance. Furthermore, number of risk factors was positively associated with number of negative outcomes. Finally, early risk accounted for variance beyond that explained by later risk in the prediction of CO. We discuss these findings in terms of five criteria posed by these data, positing a "mediated net of adversity" model, suggesting that CR may increase some central integrative factor, simultaneously augmenting risk across cognitive, quality of life, psychiatric and physical health outcomes.

  2. The Algebra of the Cumulative Percent Operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Andrew J.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses how to help students avoid some pervasive reasoning errors in solving cumulative percent problems. Discusses the meaning of ."%+b%." the additive inverse of ."%." and other useful applications. Emphasizes the operational aspect of the cumulative percent concept. (KHR)

  3. Adaptive strategies for cumulative cultural learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehn, Micael; Laland, Kevin

    2012-05-21

    The demographic and ecological success of our species is frequently attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture. However, it is not yet known how humans combine social and asocial learning to generate effective strategies for learning in a cumulative cultural context. Here we explore how cumulative culture influences the relative merits of various pure and conditional learning strategies, including pure asocial and social learning, critical social learning, conditional social learning and individual refiner strategies. We replicate the Rogers' paradox in the cumulative setting. However, our analysis suggests that strategies that resolved Rogers' paradox in a non-cumulative setting may not necessarily evolve in a cumulative setting, thus different strategies will optimize cumulative and non-cumulative cultural learning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16... § 651.16 Cumulative impacts. (a) NEPA analyses must assess cumulative effects, which are the impact on the environment resulting from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present...

  5. A paradox of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

    2015-08-21

    Culture can grow cumulatively if socially learnt behaviors are improved by individual learning before being passed on to the next generation. Previous authors showed that this kind of learning strategy is unlikely to be evolutionarily stable in the presence of a trade-off between learning and reproduction. This is because culture is a public good that is freely exploited by any member of the population in their model (cultural social dilemma). In this paper, we investigate the effect of vertical transmission (transmission from parents to offspring), which decreases the publicness of culture, on the evolution of cumulative culture in both infinite and finite population models. In the infinite population model, we confirm that culture accumulates largely as long as transmission is purely vertical. It turns out, however, that introduction of even slight oblique transmission drastically reduces the equilibrium level of culture. Even more surprisingly, if the population size is finite, culture hardly accumulates even under purely vertical transmission. This occurs because stochastic extinction due to random genetic drift prevents a learning strategy from accumulating enough culture. Overall, our theoretical results suggest that introducing vertical transmission alone does not really help solve the cultural social dilemma problem. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Cumulative effects of planned industrial development and climate change on marine ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available With increasing human population, large scale climate changes, and the interaction of multiple stressors, understanding cumulative effects on marine ecosystems is increasingly important. Two major drivers of change in coastal and marine ecosystems are industrial developments with acute impacts on local ecosystems, and global climate change stressors with widespread impacts. We conducted a cumulative effects mapping analysis of the marine waters of British Columbia, Canada, under different scenarios: climate change and planned developments. At the coast-wide scale, climate change drove the largest change in cumulative effects with both widespread impacts and high vulnerability scores. Where the impacts of planned developments occur, planned industrial and pipeline activities had high cumulative effects, but the footprint of these effects was comparatively localized. Nearshore habitats were at greatest risk from planned industrial and pipeline activities; in particular, the impacts of planned pipelines on rocky intertidal habitats were predicted to cause the highest change in cumulative effects. This method of incorporating planned industrial development in cumulative effects mapping allows explicit comparison of different scenarios with the potential to be used in environmental impact assessments at various scales. Its use allows resource managers to consider cumulative effect hotspots when making decisions regarding industrial developments and avoid unacceptable cumulative effects. Management needs to consider both global and local stressors in managing marine ecosystems for the protection of biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services.

  7. Energy Current Cumulants in One-Dimensional Systems in Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhar, Abhishek; Saito, Keiji; Roy, Anjan

    2018-06-01

    A recent theory based on fluctuating hydrodynamics predicts that one-dimensional interacting systems with particle, momentum, and energy conservation exhibit anomalous transport that falls into two main universality classes. The classification is based on behavior of equilibrium dynamical correlations of the conserved quantities. One class is characterized by sound modes with Kardar-Parisi-Zhang scaling, while the second class has diffusive sound modes. The heat mode follows Lévy statistics, with different exponents for the two classes. Here we consider heat current fluctuations in two specific systems, which are expected to be in the above two universality classes, namely, a hard particle gas with Hamiltonian dynamics and a harmonic chain with momentum conserving stochastic dynamics. Numerical simulations show completely different system-size dependence of current cumulants in these two systems. We explain this numerical observation using a phenomenological model of Lévy walkers with inputs from fluctuating hydrodynamics. This consistently explains the system-size dependence of heat current fluctuations. For the latter system, we derive the cumulant-generating function from a more microscopic theory, which also gives the same system-size dependence of cumulants.

  8. spatially identifying vulnerable areas

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model structure is aimed at understanding the critical vulnerable factors that ... This paper incorporates multiple criteria and rank risk factors. ..... In terms of quantifying vulnerable areas within the country, the analysis is done based on 9 ...

  9. Fuzzing and Vulnerabilities Search

    OpenAIRE

    Stanislav Evgenyevich Kirillov; Nikolai Petrovich Lavrentiev

    2013-01-01

    Fuzzing for vulnerabilities can be very effective if we know the input data format. This work contains description of network message format recovery algorithm and the usage of restored data model in fuzzing and vulnerabilities search.

  10. Fuzzing and Vulnerabilities Search

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav Evgenyevich Kirillov

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Fuzzing for vulnerabilities can be very effective if we know the input data format. This work contains description of network message format recovery algorithm and the usage of restored data model in fuzzing and vulnerabilities search.

  11. What Does Vulnerability Mean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parley, Fiona F

    2011-01-01

    Protection of those deemed vulnerable has received increasing attention since 2000. This article reports on care staff views of vulnerability using original data from a research study (Parley. "Vulnerability and abuse: an exploration of views of care staff working with people who have learning disabilities," PhD Thesis, 2007) in which care staff…

  12. Cumulative trauma disorders: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Zaheen A; Alghadir, Ahmad H

    2017-08-03

    Cumulative trauma disorder (CTD) is a term for various injuries of the musculoskeletal and nervous systems that are caused by repetitive tasks, forceful exertions, vibrations, mechanical compression or sustained postures. Although there are many studies citing incidence of CTDs, there are fewer articles about its etiology, pathology and management. The aim of our study was to discuss the etiology, pathogenesis, prevention and management of CTDs. A literature search was performed using various electronic databases. The search was limited to articles in English language pertaining to randomized clinical trials, cohort studies and systematic reviews of CTDs. A total of 180 papers were identified to be relevant published since 1959. Out of these, 125 papers reported about its incidence and 50 about its conservative treatment. Workplace environment, same task repeatability and little variability, decreased time for rest, increase in expectations are major factors for developing CTDs. Prevention of its etiology and early diagnosis can be the best to decrease its incidence and severity. For effective management of CTDs, its treatment should be divided into Primordial, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary prevention.

  13. Complete cumulative index (1963-1983)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    This complete cumulative index covers all regular and special issues and supplements published by Atomic Energy Review (AER) during its lifetime (1963-1983). The complete cumulative index consists of six Indexes: the Index of Abstracts, the Subject Index, the Title Index, the Author Index, the Country Index and the Table of Elements Index. The complete cumulative index supersedes the Cumulative Indexes for Volumes 1-7: 1963-1969 (1970), and for Volumes 1-10: 1963-1972 (1972); this Index also finalizes Atomic Energy Review, the publication of which has recently been terminated by the IAEA

  14. VULNERABILITY OF COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ARMEAN ANDREEA

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In present, the study of vulnerability of companies is increasing in every field due to the unstable economic environment influences. The object of this research is to define and identify vulnerabilities of companies and the establishment of evaluation methods at their level. This article emphasizes the importance and usefulness of one of the best known model in this way, from our point of view, namely Băileşteanu, Negrila Pattern. This pattern covers both external factors and internal ones, that increase vulnerabilities of companies, and fit the companies in which the state of vulnerability are (vitality, viability, vulnerability, high vulnerability, difficulty and high difficulty, with a matrix. The result of the research is that any company belonging to any field, can be analyzed using this model, and assigned to one of the conditions defined within.

  15. System-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, NEWTONP, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Program finds probability required to yield given system reliability. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

  16. Common-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest, M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CROSSER, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), used independently of one another. Point of equality between reliability of system and common reliability of components found. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

  17. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact...

  18. Cumulative Student Loan Debt in Minnesota, 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Wyche, Shaun

    2016-01-01

    To better understand student debt in Minnesota, the Minnesota Office of Higher Education (the Office) gathers information on cumulative student loan debt from Minnesota degree-granting institutions. These data detail the number of students with loans by institution, the cumulative student loan debt incurred at that institution, and the percentage…

  19. Automated Software Vulnerability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sezer, Emre C.; Kil, Chongkyung; Ning, Peng

    Despite decades of research, software continues to have vulnerabilities. Successful exploitations of these vulnerabilities by attackers cost millions of dollars to businesses and individuals. Unfortunately, most effective defensive measures, such as patching and intrusion prevention systems, require an intimate knowledge of the vulnerabilities. Many systems for detecting attacks have been proposed. However, the analysis of the exploited vulnerabilities is left to security experts and programmers. Both the human effortinvolved and the slow analysis process are unfavorable for timely defensive measure to be deployed. The problem is exacerbated by zero-day attacks.

  20. Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2017-11-01

    Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

  1. GIS-Mapping and Statistical Analyses to Identify Climate-Vulnerable Communities and Populations Exposed to Superfund Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change-related cumulative health risks are expected to be disproportionately greater for overburdened communities, due to differential proximity and exposures to chemical sources and flood zones. Communities and populations vulnerable to climate change-associated impacts ...

  2. Vulnerability of complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishkovski, Igor; Biey, Mario; Kocarev, Ljupco

    2011-01-01

    We consider normalized average edge betweenness of a network as a metric of network vulnerability. We suggest that normalized average edge betweenness together with is relative difference when certain number of nodes and/or edges are removed from the network is a measure of network vulnerability, called vulnerability index. Vulnerability index is calculated for four synthetic networks: Erdős-Rényi (ER) random networks, Barabási-Albert (BA) model of scale-free networks, Watts-Strogatz (WS) model of small-world networks, and geometric random networks. Real-world networks for which vulnerability index is calculated include: two human brain networks, three urban networks, one collaboration network, and two power grid networks. We find that WS model of small-world networks and biological networks (human brain networks) are the most robust networks among all networks studied in the paper.

  3. The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and Mental Health of Employees in ... CAs were measured in three forms (family adversities (CAFam), personal adversities ... Age of employees ranged between 18-65 years.

  4. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children’s learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission—the cornerstone of human cultural diversity. PMID:28739945

  5. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querbes, A.; Vaesen, K.; Houkes, W.N.

    2014-01-01

    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological

  6. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J; Halpern, Benjamin S; Breed, Greg A; Nickel, Barry; Teutschel, Nicole M; Crowder, Larry B; Benson, Scott; Dutton, Peter H; Bailey, Helen; Kappes, Michelle A; Kuhn, Carey E; Weise, Michael J; Mate, Bruce; Shaffer, Scott A; Hassrick, Jason L; Henry, Robert W; Irvine, Ladd; McDonald, Birgitte I; Robinson, Patrick W; Block, Barbara A; Costa, Daniel P

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact (CUI) on marine predators by combining electronic tracking data of eight protected predator species (n=685 individuals) in the California Current Ecosystem with data on 24 anthropogenic stressors. We show significant variation in CUI with some of the highest impacts within US National Marine Sanctuaries. High variation in underlying species and cumulative impact distributions means that neither alone is sufficient for effective spatial management. Instead, comprehensive management approaches accounting for both cumulative human impacts and trade-offs among multiple stressors must be applied in planning the use of marine resources.

  7. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legare, Cristine H

    2017-07-24

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children's learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission-the cornerstone of human cultural diversity.

  8. Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

  9. About the cumulants of periodic signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrau, Axel; El Badaoui, Mohammed

    2018-01-01

    This note studies cumulants of time series. These functions originating from the probability theory being commonly used as features of deterministic signals, their classical properties are examined in this modified framework. We show additivity of cumulants, ensured in the case of independent random variables, requires here a different hypothesis. Practical applications are proposed, in particular an analysis of the failure of the JADE algorithm to separate some specific periodic signals.

  10. Cumulative effects assessment: Does scale matter?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Therivel, Riki; Ross, Bill

    2007-01-01

    Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is (or should be) an integral part of environmental assessment at both the project and the more strategic level. CEA helps to link the different scales of environmental assessment in that it focuses on how a given receptor is affected by the totality of plans, projects and activities, rather than on the effects of a particular plan or project. This article reviews how CEAs consider, and could consider, scale issues: spatial extent, level of detail, and temporal issues. It is based on an analysis of Canadian project-level CEAs and UK strategic-level CEAs. Based on a review of literature and, especially, case studies with which the authors are familiar, it concludes that scale issues are poorly considered at both levels, with particular problems being unclear or non-existing cumulative effects scoping methodologies; poor consideration of past or likely future human activities beyond the plan or project in question; attempts to apportion 'blame' for cumulative effects; and, at the plan level, limited management of cumulative effects caused particularly by the absence of consent regimes. Scale issues are important in most of these problems. However both strategic-level and project-level CEA have much potential for managing cumulative effects through better siting and phasing of development, demand reduction and other behavioural changes, and particularly through setting development consent rules for projects. The lack of strategic resource-based thresholds constrains the robust management of strategic-level cumulative effects

  11. County Population Vulnerability

    Data.gov (United States)

    City and County of Durham, North Carolina — This layer summarizes the social vulnerability index for populations within each county in the United States at scales 1:3m and below. It answers the question...

  12. Web Application Vulnerabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Yadav, Bhanu

    2014-01-01

    Web application security has been a major issue in information technology since the evolvement of dynamic web application. The main objective of this project was to carry out a detailed study on the top three web application vulnerabilities such as injection, cross site scripting, broken authentication and session management, present the situation where an application can be vulnerable to these web threats and finally provide preventative measures against them. ...

  13. Selective vulnerability in brain hypoxia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cervos-Navarro, J.; Diemer, Nils Henrik

    1991-01-01

    Neuropathology, selective vulnerability, brain hypoxia, vascular factors, excitotoxicity, ion homeostasis......Neuropathology, selective vulnerability, brain hypoxia, vascular factors, excitotoxicity, ion homeostasis...

  14. Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability: Marginal and Cause-Specific Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2005-01-01

    cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling......cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling...

  15. Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability by Direct Binomial Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard......Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard...

  16. Managing cumulative impacts: A key to sustainability?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunsaker, C.T.

    1994-12-31

    This paper addresses how science can be more effectively used in creating policy to manage cumulative effects on ecosystems. The paper focuses on the scientific techniques that we have to identify and to assess cumulative impacts on ecosystems. The term ``sustainable development`` was brought into common use by the World Commission on Environment and Development (The Brundtland Commission) in 1987. The Brundtland Commission report highlighted the need to simultaneously address developmental and environmental imperatives simultaneously by calling for development that ``meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the needs of future generations.`` We cannot claim to be working toward sustainable development until we can quantitatively assess cumulative impacts on the environment: The two concepts are inextricibally linked in that the elusiveness of cumulative effects likely has the greatest potential of keeping us from achieving sustainability. In this paper, assessment and management frameworks relevant to cumulative impacts are discussed along with recent literature on how to improve such assessments. When possible, examples are given for marine ecosystems.

  17. Perspectives on cumulative risks and impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faust, John B

    2010-01-01

    Cumulative risks and impacts have taken on different meanings in different regulatory and programmatic contexts at federal and state government levels. Traditional risk assessment methodologies, with considerable limitations, can provide a framework for the evaluation of cumulative risks from chemicals. Under an environmental justice program in California, cumulative impacts are defined to include exposures, public health effects, or environmental effects in a geographic area from the emission or discharge of environmental pollution from all sources, through all media. Furthermore, the evaluation of these effects should take into account sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors where possible and to the extent data are available. Key aspects to this potential approach include the consideration of exposures (versus risk), socioeconomic factors, the geographic or community-level assessment scale, and the inclusion of not only health effects but also environmental effects as contributors to impact. Assessments of this type extend the boundaries of the types of information that toxicologists generally provide for risk management decisions.

  18. Cumulative processes and quark distribution in nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondratyuk, L.; Shmatikov, M.

    1984-01-01

    Assuming existence of multiquark (mainly 12q) bags in nuclei the spectra of cumulative nucleons and mesons produced in high-energy particle-nucleus collisions are discussed. The exponential form of quark momentum distribution in 12q-bag (agreeing well with the experimental data on lepton-nucleus interactions at large q 2 ) is shown to result in quasi-exponential distribution of cumulative particles over the light-cone variable αsub(B). The dependence of f(αsub(B); psub(perpendicular)) (where psub(perpendicular) is the transverse momentum of the bag) upon psub(perpendicular) is considered. The yields of cumulative resonances as well as effects related to the u- and d-quark distributions in N > Z nuclei being different are dicscussed

  19. Cumulative Culture and Future Thinking: Is Mental Time Travel a Prerequisite to Cumulative Cultural Evolution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vale, G. L.; Flynn, E. G.; Kendal, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    Cumulative culture denotes the, arguably, human capacity to build on the cultural behaviors of one's predecessors, allowing increases in cultural complexity to occur such that many of our cultural artifacts, products and technologies have progressed beyond what a single individual could invent alone. This process of cumulative cultural evolution…

  20. EXAFS cumulants of CdSe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diop, D.

    1997-04-01

    EXAFS functions had been extracted from measurements on the K edge of Se at different temperatures between 20 and 300 K. The analysis of the EXAFS of the filtered first two shells has been done in the wavevector range laying between 2 and 15.5 A -1 in terms of the cumulants of the effective distribution of distances. The cumulants C 3 and C 4 obtained from the phase difference and the amplitude ratio methods have shown the anharmonicity in the vibrations of atoms around their equilibrium position. (author). 13 refs, 3 figs

  1. Cumulative effects of wind turbines. A guide to assessing the cumulative effects of wind energy development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-07-01

    This guidance provides advice on how to assess the cumulative effects of wind energy developments in an area and is aimed at developers, planners, and stakeholders interested in the development of wind energy in the UK. The principles of cumulative assessment, wind energy development in the UK, cumulative assessment of wind energy development, and best practice conclusions are discussed. The identification and assessment of the cumulative effects is examined in terms of global environmental sustainability, local environmental quality and socio-economic activity. Supplementary guidance for assessing the principle cumulative effects on the landscape, on birds, and on the visual effect is provided. The consensus building approach behind the preparation of this guidance is outlined in the annexes of the report.

  2. Energy vulnerability relationships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaw, B.R.; Boesen, J.L.

    1998-02-01

    The US consumption of crude oil resources has been a steadily growing indicator of the vitality and strength of the US economy. At the same time import diversity has also been a rapidly developing dimension of the import picture. In the early 1970`s, embargoes of crude oil from Organization of Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) created economic and political havoc due to a significant lack of diversity and a unique set of economic, political and domestic regulatory circumstances. The continued rise of imports has again led to concerns over the security of our crude oil resource but threats to this system must be considered in light of the diversity and current setting of imported oil. This report develops several important issues concerning vulnerability to the disruption of oil imports: (1) The Middle East is not the major supplier of oil to the United States, (2) The US is not vulnerable to having its entire import stream disrupted, (3) Even in stable countries, there exist vulnerabilities to disruption of the export stream of oil, (4) Vulnerability reduction requires a focus on international solutions, and (5) DOE program and policy development must reflect the requirements of the diverse supply. Does this increasing proportion of imported oil create a {open_quotes}dependence{close_quotes}? Does this increasing proportion of imported oil present a vulnerability to {open_quotes}price shocks{close_quotes} and the tremendous dislocations experienced during the 1970`s? Finally, what is the vulnerability of supply disruptions from the current sources of imported oil? If oil is considered to be a finite, rapidly depleting resource, then the answers to these questions must be {open_quotes}yes.{close_quotes} However, if the supply of oil is expanding, and not limited, then dependence is relative to regional supply sources.

  3. Plutonium Vulnerability Management Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-03-01

    This Plutonium Vulnerability Management Plan describes the Department of Energy's response to the vulnerabilities identified in the Plutonium Working Group Report which are a result of the cessation of nuclear weapons production. The responses contained in this document are only part of an overall, coordinated approach designed to enable the Department to accelerate conversion of all nuclear materials, including plutonium, to forms suitable for safe, interim storage. The overall actions being taken are discussed in detail in the Department's Implementation Plan in response to the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) Recommendation 94-1. This is included as Attachment B

  4. Detecting C Program Vulnerabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Anton, Ermakov; Natalia, Kushik

    2011-01-01

    C/C++ language is widely used for developing tools in various applications, in particular, software tools for critical systems are often written in C language. Therefore, the security of such software should be thoroughly tested, i.e., the absence of vulnerabilities has to be confirmed. When detecting C program vulnerabilities static source code analysis can be used. In this paper, we present a short survey of existing software tools for such analysis and show that for some kinds of C code vu...

  5. Multiparty correlation measure based on the cumulant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, D. L.; Zeng, B.; Xu, Z.; You, L.

    2006-01-01

    We propose a genuine multiparty correlation measure for a multiparty quantum system as the trace norm of the cumulant of the state. The legitimacy of our multiparty correlation measure is explicitly demonstrated by proving it satisfies the five basic conditions required for a correlation measure. As an application we construct an efficient algorithm for the calculation of our measures for all stabilizer states

  6. Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

    2000-01-01

    Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

  7. Cumulative watershed effects: a research perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie M. Reid; Robert R. Ziemer

    1989-01-01

    A cumulative watershed effect (CWE) is any response to multiple land-use activities that is caused by, or results in, altered watershed function. The CWE issue is politically defined, as is the significance of particular impacts. But the processes generating CWEs are the traditional focus of geomorphology and ecology, and have thus been studied for decades. The CWE...

  8. An evaluation paradigm for cumulative impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

    1988-09-01

    Cumulative impact analysis is examined from a conceptual decision-making perspective, focusing on its implicit and explicit purposes as suggested within the policy and procedures for environmental impact analysis of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and its implementing regulations. In this article it is also linked to different evaluation and decision-making conventions, contrasting a regulatory context with a comprehensive planning framework. The specific problems that make the application of cumulative impact analysis a virtually intractable evaluation requirement are discussed in connection with the federal regulation of wetlands uses. The relatively familiar US Army Corps of Engineers' (the Corps) permit program, in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) responsibilities in managing its share of the Section 404 regulatory program requirements, is used throughout as the realistic context for highlighting certain pragmatic evaluation aspects of cumulative impact assessment. To understand the purposes of cumulative impact analysis (CIA), a key distinction must be made between the implied comprehensive and multiobjective evaluation purposes of CIA, promoted through the principles and policies contained in NEPA, and the more commonly conducted and limited assessment of cumulative effects (ACE), which focuses largely on the ecological effects of human actions. Based on current evaluation practices within the Corps' and EPA's permit programs, it is shown that the commonly used screening approach to regulating wetlands uses is not compatible with the purposes of CIA, nor is the environmental impact statement (EIS) an appropriate vehicle for evaluating the variety of objectives and trade-offs needed as part of CIA. A heuristic model that incorporates the basic elements of CIA is developed, including the idea of trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental protection goals carried out within the context of environmental

  9. Maintaining dignity in vulnerability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høy, Bente

    2016-01-01

    to understand the meaning of the narrated text. Results. The meaning of maintaining dignity was constituted in a sense of vulnerability to the self, and elucidated in three major interrelated themes: Being involved as a human being, being involved as the person one is and strives to become, and being involved...

  10. Anaphylaxis vulnerable groups

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ehab

    Age groups vulnerable to serious attacks of anaphylaxis include infants, teenagers, pregnant women, and the elderly. Concomitant diseases, such as severe or uncontrolled asthma, cardiovascular disease, mastocytosis or clonal mast cell disorders and the concurrent use of some medications such as beta adrenergic ...

  11. Mangrove vulnerability index using GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunus, Mohd Zulkifli Mohd; Ahmad, Fatimah Shafinaz; Ibrahim, Nuremira

    2018-02-01

    Climate change, particularly its associated sea level rise, is major threat to mangrove coastal areas, and it is essential to develop ways to reduce vulnerability through strategic management planning. Environmental vulnerability can be understood as a function of exposure to impacts and the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of ecological systems towards environmental tensors. Mangrove vulnerability ranking using up to 14 parameters found in study area, which is in Pulau Kukup and Sg Pulai, where 1 is low vulnerability and 5 is very high vulnerability. Mangrove Vulnerability Index (MVI) is divided into 3 main categories Physical Mangrove Index (PMI), Biological Mangrove Index (BMI) and Hazard Mangrove Index (HMI).

  12. Overturn of magma ocean ilmenite cumulate layer: Implications for lunar magmatic evolution and formation of a lunar core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, P. C.; Parmentier, E. M.

    1993-01-01

    We explore a model for the chemical evolution of the lunar interior that explains the origin and evolution of lunar magmatism and possibly the existence of a lunar core. A magma ocean formed during accretion differentiates into the anorthositic crust and chemically stratified cumulate mantle. The cumulative mantle is gravitationally unstable with dense ilmenite cumulate layers overlying olivine-orthopyroxene cumulates with Fe/Mg that decreases with depth. The dense ilmenite layer sinks to the center of the moon forming the core. The remainder of the gravitationally unstable cumulate pile also overturns. Any remaining primitive lunar mantle rises to its level of neutral buoyancy in the cumulate pile. Perhaps melting of primitive lunar mantle due to this decompression results in early lunar Mg-rich magmatism. Because of its high concentration of incompatible heat producing elements, the ilmenite core heats the overlying orthopyroxene-bearing cumulates. As a conductively thickening thermal boundary layer becomes unstable, the resulting mantle plumes rise, decompress, and partially melt to generate the mare basalts. This model explains both the timing and chemical characteristics of lunar magmatism.

  13. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO 2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions. (authors)

  14. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Querbes, Adrien; Vaesen, Krist; Houkes, Wybo

    2014-01-01

    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  15. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien Querbes

    Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  16. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

  17. Childhood Cumulative Risk and Later Allostatic Load

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doan, Stacey N; Dich, Nadya; Evans, Gary W

    2014-01-01

    State, followed for 8 years (between the ages 9 and 17). Poverty- related stress was computed using the cumulative risk approach, assessing stressors across 9 domains, including environmental, psychosocial, and demographic factors. Allostatic load captured a range of physiological responses, including......Objective: The present study investigated the long-term impact of exposure to poverty-related stressors during childhood on allostatic load, an index of physiological dysregulation, and the potential mediating role of substance use. Method: Participants (n = 162) were rural children from New York...... cardiovascular, hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis, sympathetic adrenal medullary system, and metabolic activity. Smoking and alcohol/drug use were tested as mediators of the hypothesized childhood risk-adolescent allostatic load relationship. Results: Cumulative risk exposure at age 9 predicted increases...

  18. Social vulnerability assessment: a growing practice in Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.

    2012-04-01

    This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of

  19. Fuzzy set theory for cumulative trauma prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Fonseca, Daniel J.; Merritt, Thomas W.; Moynihan, Gary P.

    2001-01-01

    A widely used fuzzy reasoning algorithm was modified and implemented via an expert system to assess the potential risk of employee repetitive strain injury in the workplace. This fuzzy relational model, known as the Priority First Cover Algorithm (PFC), was adapted to describe the relationship between 12 cumulative trauma disorders (CTDs) of the upper extremity, and 29 identified risk factors. The algorithm, which finds a suboptimal subset from a group of variables based on the criterion of...

  20. Sikap Kerja Duduk Terhadap Cumulative Trauma Disorder

    OpenAIRE

    Rahmawati, Yulita; Sugiharto, -

    2011-01-01

    Permasalahan yang diteliti adalah adakah hubungan antara sikap kerja duduk dengan kejadian Cumulative Trauma Disorder (CTD) pada pekerja bagian pengamplasan di PT. Geromar Jepara. Tujuan yang ingin dicapai adalah untuk mengetahui hubungan antara sikap kerja duduk dengan kejadian CTD pada pekerja bagian pengamplasan. Metode penelitian ini bersifat explanatory dengan menggunakan pendekatan belah lintang. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah pekerja bagian pengamplasan sebanyak 30 orang. Teknik ...

  1. Power Reactor Docket Information. Annual cumulation (citations)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-12-01

    An annual cumulation of the citations to the documentation associated with civilian nuclear power plants is presented. This material is that which is submitted to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of applications for construction and operating licenses. Citations are listed by Docket number in accession number sequence. The Table of Contents is arranged both by Docket number and by nuclear power plant name

  2. Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Olazarán, J.; Trincado, R.; Bermejo-Pareja, F.

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD), with control of vascular factors (VFs). Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES) study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (n...

  3. Cumulative release to the accessible environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanehiro, B.

    1985-01-01

    The Containment and Isolation Working Group considered issues related to the postclosure behavior of repositories in crystalline rock. This working group was further divided into subgroups to consider the progress since the 1978 GAIN Symposium and identify research needs in the individual areas of regional ground-water flow, ground-water travel time, fractional release, and cumulative release. The analysis and findings of the Fractional Release Subgroup are presented

  4. The space of vulnerability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Sgarbi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Archi-tecture has lost the reference to its prop “Archi” to develop mostly its “Tecture”: a deceitful form of nihilism, which has given full credit to a hurricane of instruments for which we know no purpose. Any distinction between city and architecture is purely contingent. Contingency is relevant but only in so far as it makes one lose any sense of scale. Many of our cities do not work because our style of life eradicates the sense of hospitality. The city becomes the place where we un-learn how to live together. Hospitality is vulnerability – the construction of vulnerability is the true beauty, the only deterrent against stupidity. Learn to live with the others, to approximate the alterity and its unpredictability. The basic tools of conviviality are the common goods of inter-disciplinarity. Learn to cultivate and educate yourself to phenomenal incompleteness.

  5. Fuzzy vulnerability matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, Jorge H.; Rivera, S.S.

    2000-01-01

    The so-called vulnerability matrix is used in the evaluation part of the probabilistic safety assessment for a nuclear power plant, during the containment event trees calculations. This matrix is established from what is knows as Numerical Categories for Engineering Judgement. This matrix is usually established with numerical values obtained with traditional arithmetic using the set theory. The representation of this matrix with fuzzy numbers is much more adequate, due to the fact that the Numerical Categories for Engineering Judgement are better represented with linguistic variables, such as 'highly probable', 'probable', 'impossible', etc. In the present paper a methodology to obtain a Fuzzy Vulnerability Matrix is presented, starting from the recommendations on the Numerical Categories for Engineering Judgement. (author)

  6. EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

  7. Higher order cumulants in colorless partonic plasma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cherif, S. [Sciences and Technologies Department, University of Ghardaia, Ghardaia, Algiers (Algeria); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M. A. A. [Department of Physics, College of Science, Taibah University Al-Madinah Al-Mounawwarah KSA (Saudi Arabia); Department of Physics, Taiz University in Turba, Taiz (Yemen); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria); Ladrem, M., E-mail: mladrem@yahoo.fr [Department of Physics, College of Science, Taibah University Al-Madinah Al-Mounawwarah KSA (Saudi Arabia); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria)

    2016-06-10

    Any physical system considered to study the QCD deconfinement phase transition certainly has a finite volume, so the finite size effects are inevitably present. This renders the location of the phase transition and the determination of its order as an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the colorless QCD deconfinement transition point in finite volume T{sub 0}(V), a new approach based on the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the ℒ{sub m,n}-Method is used. We have shown that both cumulants of higher order and their ratios, associated to the thermodynamical fluctuations of the order parameter, in QCD deconfinement phase transition behave in a particular enough way revealing pronounced oscillations in the transition region. The sign structure and the oscillatory behavior of these in the vicinity of the deconfinement phase transition point might be a sensitive probe and may allow one to elucidate their relation to the QCD phase transition point. In the context of our model, we have shown that the finite volume transition point is always associated to the appearance of a particular point in whole higher order cumulants under consideration.

  8. Cumulative irritation potential of topical retinoid formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leyden, James J; Grossman, Rachel; Nighland, Marge

    2008-08-01

    Localized irritation can limit treatment success with topical retinoids such as tretinoin and adapalene. The factors that influence irritant reactions have been shown to include individual skin sensitivity, the particular retinoid and concentration used, and the vehicle formulation. To compare the cutaneous tolerability of tretinoin 0.04% microsphere gel (TMG) with that of adapalene 0.3% gel and a standard tretinoin 0.025% cream. The results of 2 randomized, investigator-blinded studies of 2 to 3 weeks' duration, which utilized a split-face method to compare cumulative irritation scores induced by topical retinoids in subjects with healthy skin, were combined. Study 1 compared TMG 0.04% with adapalene 0.3% gel over 2 weeks, while study 2 compared TMG 0.04% with tretinoin 0.025% cream over 3 weeks. In study 1, TMG 0.04% was associated with significantly lower cumulative scores for erythema, dryness, and burning/stinging than adapalene 0.3% gel. However, in study 2, there were no significant differences in cumulative irritation scores between TMG 0.04% and tretinoin 0.025% cream. Measurements of erythema by a chromameter showed no significant differences between the test formulations in either study. Cutaneous tolerance of TMG 0.04% on the face was superior to that of adapalene 0.3% gel and similar to that of a standard tretinoin cream containing a lower concentration of the drug (0.025%).

  9. VT - Vermont Social Vulnerability Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — Social vulnerability refers to the resilience of communities when responding to or recovering from threats to public health. The Vermont Social Vulnerability Index...

  10. A bivariate optimal replacement policy with cumulative repair cost ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Min-Tsai Lai

    Shock model; cumulative damage model; cumulative repair cost limit; preventive maintenance model. 1. Introduction ... with two types of shocks: one type is failure shock, and the other type is damage ...... Theory, methods and applications.

  11. HEPA Filter Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GUSTAVSON, R.D.

    2000-01-01

    This assessment of High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filter vulnerability was requested by the USDOE Office of River Protection (ORP) to satisfy a DOE-HQ directive to evaluate the effect of filter degradation on the facility authorization basis assumptions. Within the scope of this assessment are ventilation system HEPA filters that are classified as Safety-Class (SC) or Safety-Significant (SS) components that perform an accident mitigation function. The objective of the assessment is to verify whether HEPA filters that perform a safety function during an accident are likely to perform as intended to limit release of hazardous or radioactive materials, considering factors that could degrade the filters. Filter degradation factors considered include aging, wetting of filters, exposure to high temperature, exposure to corrosive or reactive chemicals, and exposure to radiation. Screening and evaluation criteria were developed by a site-wide group of HVAC engineers and HEPA filter experts from published empirical data. For River Protection Project (RPP) filters, the only degradation factor that exceeded the screening threshold was for filter aging. Subsequent evaluation of the effect of filter aging on the filter strength was conducted, and the results were compared with required performance to meet the conditions assumed in the RPP Authorization Basis (AB). It was found that the reduction in filter strength due to aging does not affect the filter performance requirements as specified in the AB. A portion of the HEPA filter vulnerability assessment is being conducted by the ORP and is not part of the scope of this study. The ORP is conducting an assessment of the existing policies and programs relating to maintenance, testing, and change-out of HEPA filters used for SC/SS service. This document presents the results of a HEPA filter vulnerability assessment conducted for the River protection project as requested by the DOE Office of River Protection

  12. [Adolescent vulnerabilities and radicalisation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenjalley, Adrien; Radjack, Rahmeth; Ludot, Maude; Touhami, Fatima; Moro, Marie Rose

    2017-10-01

    Radicalisation resonates with the psychological vulnerabilities of adolescents. The ups and downs encountered as they attempt to construct their identity and their need to dominate favour the destructive nature of young people lacking a sense of filiation and belonging. An adolescent's engagement corresponds to a search for limits, with an adherence to religious values and to a group to establish self-esteem. Subjectification, authorising the adolescent to separate themselves from their parents and their values through a period of crisis must be supported. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  13. Classification of vulnerability information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibson, W.G.

    1984-01-01

    The current upgrading of security measures at sensitive Department of Energy (DOE) facilities reflects the continuing concern over possible terrorist and other criminal acts against these facilities. Security reviews are periodically conducted at DOE facilities, deficiencies are identified, and corrective actions are recommended. While security upgrades are initiated as soon as possible, the process of securing funding and the construction or other activities necessary to complete upgrades can cause delays in correcting security vulnerabilities. Details of security weaknesses at important DOE facilities are classified in order to deny valuable information to terrorists and other malefactors

  14. On interference of cumulative proton production mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, M.A.; Vechernin, V.V.

    1993-01-01

    The dynamical picture of the cumulative proton production in hA-collisions by means of diagram analysis with NN interaction described by a non-relativistic NN potential is considered. The contributions of the various mechanisms (spectator, direct and rescattering) for backward hemisphere proton production within the framework of this common approach is calculated. The emphasis is on the comparison of the relative contributions of these mechanisms for various angles, taking into account the interference of these contributions. Comparison with experimental data is also presented. (author)

  15. Preserved cumulative semantic interference despite amnesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Michael Oppenheim

    2015-05-01

    As predicted by Oppenheim et al’s (2010 implicit incremental learning account, WRP’s BCN RTs demonstrated strong (and significant repetition priming and semantic blocking effects (Figure 1. Similar to typical results from neurally intact undergraduates, WRP took longer to name pictures presented in semantically homogeneous blocks than in heterogeneous blocks, an effect that increased with each cycle. This result challenges accounts that ascribe cumulative semantic interference in this task to explicit memory mechanisms, instead suggesting that the effect has the sort of implicit learning bases that are typically spared in hippocampal amnesia.

  16. Is cumulated pyrethroid exposure associated with prediabetes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Martin Rune; Jørs, Erik; Lander, Flemming

    2014-01-01

    was to investigate an association between exposure to pyrethroids and abnormal glucose regulation (prediabetes or diabetes). A cross-sectional study was performed among 116 pesticide sprayers from public vector control programs in Bolivia and 92 nonexposed controls. Pesticide exposure (duration, intensity...... pyrethroids, a significant positive trend was observed between cumulative pesticide exposure (total number of hours sprayed) and adjusted OR of abnormal glucose regulation, with OR 14.7 [0.9-235] in the third exposure quintile. The study found a severely increased prevalence of prediabetes among Bolivian...

  17. Chapter 19. Cumulative watershed effects and watershed analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie M. Reid

    1998-01-01

    Cumulative watershed effects are environmental changes that are affected by more than.one land-use activity and that are influenced by.processes involving the generation or transport.of water. Almost all environmental changes are.cumulative effects, and almost all land-use.activities contribute to cumulative effects

  18. Original and cumulative prospect theory: a discussion of empirical differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Fennema, H.

    1997-01-01

    This note discusses differences between prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory. It shows that cumulative prospect theory is not merely a formal correction of some theoretical problems in prospect theory, but it also gives different predictions. Experiments are described that favor cumulative

  19. Cumulative Environmental Management Association : Wood Buffalo Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friesen, B.

    2001-01-01

    The recently announced oil sands development of the Wood Buffalo Region in Alberta was the focus of this power point presentation. Both mining and in situ development is expected to total $26 billion and 2.6 million barrels per day of bitumen production. This paper described the economic, social and environmental challenges facing the resource development of this region. In addition to the proposed oil sands projects, this region will accommodate the needs of conventional oil and gas production, forestry, building of pipelines and power lines, municipal development, recreation, tourism, mining exploration and open cast mining. The Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) was inaugurated as a non-profit association in April 2000, and includes 41 members from all sectors. Its major role is to ensure a sustainable ecosystem and to avoid any cumulative impacts on wildlife. Other work underway includes the study of soil and plant species diversity, and the effects of air emissions on human health, wildlife and vegetation. The bioaccumulation of heavy metals and their impacts on surface water and fish is also under consideration to ensure the quality and quantity of surface water and ground water. 3 figs

  20. Assessing flash flood vulnerability using a multi-vulnerability approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karagiorgos Konstantinos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of flood risk assessment, while the understanding of hazard and exposure has significantly improved over the last years, knowledge on vulnerability remains one of the challenges. Current approaches in vulnerability research are characterised by a division between social scientists and natural scientists. In order to close this gap, we present an approach that combines information on physical and social vulnerability in order to merge information on the susceptibility of elements at risk and society. With respect to physical vulnerability, the study is based on local-scale vulnerability models using nonlinear regression approaches. Modified Weibull distributions were fit to the data in order to represent the relationship between process magnitude and degree of loss. With respect to social vulnerability we conducted a door-to-door survey which resulted in particular insights on flood risk awareness and resilience strategies of exposed communities. In general, both physical and social vulnerability were low in comparison with other European studies, which may result from (a specific building regulations in the four Mediterranean test sites as well as general design principles leading to low structural susceptibility of elements at risk, and (b relatively low social vulnerability of citizens exposed. As a result it is shown that a combination of different perspectives of vulnerability will lead to a better understanding of exposure and capacities in flood risk management.

  1. Open Source Vulnerability Database Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jake Kouns

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This article introduces the Open Source Vulnerability Database (OSVDB project which manages a global collection of computer security vulnerabilities, available for free use by the information security community. This collection contains information on known security weaknesses in operating systems, software products, protocols, hardware devices, and other infrastructure elements of information technology. The OSVDB project is intended to be the centralized global open source vulnerability collection on the Internet.

  2. Motherhood, Marketization, and Consumer Vulnerability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davies, Andrea; Prothero, Andrea; Sørensen, Elin

    2010-01-01

    This article explores consumer vulnerability and the role of public policy by focusing on new mothers. Developing the consumer vulnerability model of Baker, Gentry, and Rittenburg, the authors consider how medical contexts, political and legal factors, economic resources, societal prescriptions...... a time of physical and psychological changes in mothers-to-be. This article illustrates that the extended market logic dominating contemporary mothering environments both contributes to and has the potential to exacerbate new mothers’ vulnerability, raising important challenges for public policy, both...

  3. Network Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alward, Randy G; Carley, Kathleen M; Madsen, Fredrik; Taylor, Vincent K; Vandenberghe, Grant

    2006-01-01

    .... The break out group discussed vulnerability presentation needs common across various application domains, particularly in support of network discovery and network analysis tasks in those domains...

  4. Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giakoumi, Sylvaine; Halpern, Benjamin S; Michel, Loïc N; Gobert, Sylvie; Sini, Maria; Boudouresque, Charles-François; Gambi, Maria-Cristina; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Lejeune, Pierre; Montefalcone, Monica; Pergent, Gerard; Pergent-Martini, Christine; Sanchez-Jerez, Pablo; Velimirov, Branko; Vizzini, Salvatrice; Abadie, Arnaud; Coll, Marta; Guidetti, Paolo; Micheli, Fiorenza; Possingham, Hugh P

    2015-08-01

    Effective ecosystem-based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components' vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  5. Evolution model with a cumulative feedback coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zabrocki, Knud; Schulz, Michael

    2002-05-01

    The paper is concerned with a toy model that generalizes the standard Lotka-Volterra equation for a certain population by introducing a competition between instantaneous and accumulative, history-dependent nonlinear feedback the origin of which could be a contribution from any kind of mismanagement in the past. The results depend on the sign of that additional cumulative loss or gain term of strength λ. In case of a positive coupling the system offers a maximum gain achieved after a finite time but the population will die out in the long time limit. In this case the instantaneous loss term of strength u is irrelevant and the model exhibits an exact solution. In the opposite case λ<0 the time evolution of the system is terminated in a crash after ts provided u=0. This singularity after a finite time can be avoided if u≠0. The approach may well be of relevance for the qualitative understanding of more realistic descriptions.

  6. Psychometric properties of the Cumulated Ambulation Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferriero, Giorgio; Kristensen, Morten T; Invernizzi, Marco

    2018-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: In the geriatric population, independent mobility is a key factor in determining readiness for discharge following acute hospitalization. The Cumulated Ambulation Score (CAS) is a potentially valuable score that allows day-to-day measurements of basic mobility. The CAS was developed...... and validated in older patients with hip fracture as an early postoperative predictor of short-term outcome, but it is also used to assess geriatric in-patients with acute medical illness. Despite the fast- accumulating literature on the CAS, to date no systematic review synthesizing its psychometric properties....... Of 49 studies identified, 17 examined the psychometric properties of the CAS. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Most papers dealt with patients after hip fracture surgery, and only 4 studies assessed the CAS psychometric characteristics also in geriatric in-patients with acute medical illness. Two versions of CAS...

  7. Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to extreme events: Climate change implications (Conference paper)

    OpenAIRE

    Patt, A.; Pfenninger, S.; Lilliestam, J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabili...

  8. Environmental Health Related Socio-Spatial Inequalities: Identifying “Hotspots” of Environmental Burdens and Social Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Rehana; Flacke, Johannes; Martinez, Javier; van Maarseveen, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Differential exposure to multiple environmental burdens and benefits and their distribution across a population with varying vulnerability can contribute heavily to health inequalities. Particularly relevant are areas with high cumulative burdens and high social vulnerability termed as “hotspots”. This paper develops an index-based approach to assess these multiple burdens and benefits in combination with vulnerability factors at detailed intra-urban level. The method is applied to the city of Dortmund, Germany. Using non-spatial and spatial methods we assessed inequalities and identified “hotspot” areas in the city. We found modest inequalities burdening higher vulnerable groups in Dortmund (CI = −0.020 at p vulnerability, is essential to inform environmental justice debates and to mobilize local stakeholders. Locating “hotspot” areas at this detailed spatial level can serve as a basis to develop interventions that target vulnerable groups to ensure a health conducive equal environment. PMID:27409625

  9. Cumulative radiation dose of multiple trauma patients during their hospitalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zhikang; Sun Jianzhong; Zhao Zudan

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To study the cumulative radiation dose of multiple trauma patients during their hospitalization and to analyze the dose influence factors. Methods: The DLP for CT and DR were retrospectively collected from the patients during June, 2009 and April, 2011 at a university affiliated hospital. The cumulative radiation doses were calculated by summing typical effective doses of the anatomic regions scanned. Results: The cumulative radiation doses of 113 patients were collected. The maximum,minimum and the mean values of cumulative effective doses were 153.3, 16.48 mSv and (52.3 ± 26.6) mSv. Conclusions: Multiple trauma patients have high cumulative radiation exposure. Therefore, the management of cumulative radiation doses should be enhanced. To establish the individualized radiation exposure archives will be helpful for the clinicians and technicians to make decision whether to image again and how to select the imaging parameters. (authors)

  10. 7 CFR 42.132 - Determining cumulative sum values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Determining cumulative sum values. 42.132 Section 42... Determining cumulative sum values. (a) The parameters for the on-line cumulative sum sampling plans for AQL's... 3 1 2.5 3 1 2 1 (b) At the beginning of the basic inspection period, the CuSum value is set equal to...

  11. Improving cumulative effects assessment in Alberta: Regional strategic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Dallas; Lalonde, Kim; McEachern, Menzie; Kenney, John; Mendoza, Gustavo; Buffin, Andrew; Rich, Kate

    2011-01-01

    The Government of Alberta, Canada is developing a regulatory framework to better manage cumulative environmental effects from development in the province. A key component of this effort is regional planning, which will lay the primary foundation for cumulative effects management into the future. Alberta Environment has considered the information needs of regional planning and has concluded that Regional Strategic Assessment may offer significant advantages if integrated into the planning process, including the overall improvement of cumulative environmental effects assessment in the province.

  12. A numerical study on the influence of vulnerable plaque composition on intravascular thermography measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Have, A G ten; Gijsen, F J H; Wentzel, J J; Slager, C J; Serruys, P W; Steen, A F W van der

    2006-01-01

    Intracoronary thermography is a technique that measures lumen wall temperatures for vulnerable plaque detection. In this paper the influence of vulnerable plaque composition on lumen wall temperatures was studied numerically. Concerning the vulnerable plaque heat generation, the location of the heat source and its heat production were varied. Concerning the heat transfer, the thermal properties of the lipid core and the location of the vasa vasorum were studied. The heat source location was the main determinant of the lumen wall temperature distribution. The strongest effect was noted when the heat producing macrophages were located in the shoulder region leading to focal spots of higher temperature. The maximal lumen wall temperature was mainly determined by the heat production of the macrophages and the cooling effect of blood. The insulating properties of the lipid core increased lumen wall temperatures when the heat source was located in the cap and the presence of vasa vasorum lowered the temperatures. These results show that the lumen wall temperature distribution is influenced by vulnerable plaque composition and that intracoronary thermography techniques require a high spatial resolution. To be able to couple temperature measurements to plaque vulnerability, intracoronary thermography needs to be combined with an imaging modality

  13. Children neglected: Where cumulative risk theory fails.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Mandy; Legano, Lori; Homel, Peter; Walker-Descartes, Ingrid; Rojas, Mary; Laraque, Danielle

    2015-07-01

    Neglected children, by far the majority of children maltreated, experience an environment most deficient in cognitive stimulation and language exchange. When physical abuse co-occurs with neglect, there is more stimulation through negative parent-child interaction, which may lead to better cognitive outcomes, contrary to Cumulative Risk Theory. The purpose of the current study was to assess whether children only neglected perform worse on cognitive tasks than children neglected and physically abused. Utilizing LONGSCAN archived data, 271 children only neglected and 101 children neglected and physically abused in the first four years of life were compared. The two groups were assessed at age 6 on the WPPSI-R vocabulary and block design subtests, correlates of cognitive intelligence. Regression analyses were performed, controlling for additional predictors of poor cognitive outcome, including socioeconomic variables and caregiver depression. Children only neglected scored significantly worse than children neglected and abused on the WPPSI-R vocabulary subtest (p=0.03). The groups did not differ on the block design subtest (p=0.4). This study shows that for neglected children, additional abuse may not additively accumulate risk when considering intelligence outcomes. Children experiencing only neglect may need to be referred for services that address cognitive development, with emphasis on the linguistic environment, in order to best support the developmental challenges of neglected children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Standardization of the cumulative absolute velocity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Hara, T.F.; Jacobson, J.P.

    1991-12-01

    EPRI NP-5930, ''A Criterion for Determining Exceedance of the Operating Basis Earthquake,'' was published in July 1988. As defined in that report, the Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) is exceeded when both a response spectrum parameter and a second damage parameter, referred to as the Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV), are exceeded. In the review process of the above report, it was noted that the calculation of CAV could be confounded by time history records of long duration containing low (nondamaging) acceleration. Therefore, it is necessary to standardize the method of calculating CAV to account for record length. This standardized methodology allows consistent comparisons between future CAV calculations and the adjusted CAV threshold value based upon applying the standardized methodology to the data set presented in EPRI NP-5930. The recommended method to standardize the CAV calculation is to window its calculation on a second-by-second basis for a given time history. If the absolute acceleration exceeds 0.025g at any time during each one second interval, the earthquake records used in EPRI NP-5930 have been reanalyzed and the adjusted threshold of damage for CAV was found to be 0.16g-set

  15. Analysis of Memory Codes and Cumulative Rehearsal in Observational Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandura, Albert; And Others

    1974-01-01

    The present study examined the influence of memory codes varying in meaningfulness and retrievability and cumulative rehearsal on retention of observationally learned responses over increasing temporal intervals. (Editor)

  16. Determining shallow aquifer vulnerability by the DRASTIC model and hydrochemistry in granitic terrain, southern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, N. C.; Adike, S.; Singh, V. S.; Ahmed, S.; Jayakumar, K. V.

    2017-08-01

    Shallow aquifer vulnerability has been assessed using GIS-based DRASTIC model by incorporating the major geological and hydrogeological factors that affect and control the groundwater contamination in a granitic terrain. It provides a relative indication of aquifer vulnerability to the contamination. Further, it has been cross-verified with hydrochemical signatures such as total dissolved solids (TDS), Cl-, HCO3-, SO4^{2-} and Cl-/HCO3- molar ratios. The results show four zones of aquifer vulnerability (i.e., negligible, low, moderate and high) based on the variation of DRASTIC Vulnerability Index (DVI) between 39 and 132. About 57% area in the central part is found moderately and highly contaminated due to the 80 functional tannery disposals and is more prone to groundwater aquifer vulnerability. The high range values of TDS (2304-39,100 mg/l); Na+(239- 6,046 mg/l) and Cl- (532-13,652 mg/l) are well correlated with the observed high vulnerable zones. The values of Cl-/HCO3- (molar ratios: 1.4-106.8) in the high vulnerable zone obviously indicate deterioration of the aquifer due to contamination. Further cumulative probability distributions of these parameters indicate several threshold values which are able to demarcate the diverse vulnerability zones in granitic terrain.

  17. Australian climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennessy, K.; Fitzharris, B.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability made the following conclusions about Australia (Hennessy et al., 2007): Regional climate change has occurred. Since 1950, there has been 0.7 0 C warming, with more heat waves, fewer frosts, more rain in north-west Australia, less rain in southern and eastern Australia, an increase in the intensity of Australian droughts and a rise in sea level of about 70 mm. Australia is already experiencing impacts from recent climate change. These are now evident in increasing stresses on water supply and agriculture, changed natural ecosystems, and reduced seasonal snow cover. Some adaptation has already occurred in response to observed climate change. Examples come from sectors such as water, natural ecosystems, agriculture, horticulture and coasts. However, ongoing vulnerability to extreme events is demonstrated by substantial economic losses caused by droughts, floods, fire, tropical cyclones and hail. The climate of the 21st century is virtually certain to be warmer, with changes in extreme events. Heat waves and fires are virtually certain to increase in intensity and frequency. Floods, landslides, droughts and storm surges are very likely to become more frequent and intense, and snow and frost are very likely to become less frequent. Large areas of mainland Australia are likely to have less soil moisture. Potential impacts of climate change are likely to be substantial without further adaptation; As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia; Ongoing coastal development and population growth, in areas such as Cairns and south-east Queensland, are projected to exacerbate risks from sea level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050. Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich

  18. Safeguard Vulnerability Analysis Program (SVAP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilman, F.M.; Dittmore, M.H.; Orvis, W.J.; Wahler, P.S.

    1980-01-01

    This report gives an overview of the Safeguard Vulnerability Analysis Program (SVAP) developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. SVAP was designed as an automated method of analyzing the safeguard systems at nuclear facilities for vulnerabilities relating to the theft or diversion of nuclear materials. SVAP addresses one class of safeguard threat: theft or diversion of nuclear materials by nonviolent insiders, acting individually or in collusion. SVAP is a user-oriented tool which uses an interactive input medium for preprocessing the large amounts of safeguards data. Its output includes concise summary data as well as detailed vulnerability information

  19. Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

    2006-01-01

    We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

  20. Vulnerability of health to market forces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brezis, Mayer; Wiist, William H

    2011-03-01

    This article reviews adverse influences of for-profit enterprises on health care and public health, and examines significance for public policy. Narrative review. For-profit health-care industries may increase costs and reduce quality, leading to market failure and contributing to the USA's unflattering position in international comparisons of health-care efficiency. Drug and device corporations use strategies such as making biased inferences, influencing scientists and physicians, marketing rather than informing the public, and lobbying to control their own industry regulations to create market advantage. Successful marketing leads to the increased use of costly profit-making drugs and procedures over cheaper, nonpatented therapies. Because resources are limited, the overuse of costly modalities contributes to expensive health care, which presents a challenge to universal coverage. The free market also fosters the proliferation of industries, such as tobacco, food, and chemicals, which externalize costs to maximize profits, seek to unduly influence research by paying experts and universities, and attempt to control the media and regulatory agencies. Most vulnerable to the cumulative harm of these tactics are children, the poor, the sick, and the least educated. The free market can harm health and health care. The corporate obligation to increase profits and ensure a return to shareholders affects public health. Such excesses of capitalism pose formidable challenges to social justice and public health. The recognition of the health risks entailed by corporation-controlled markets has important implications for public policy. Reforms are required to limit the power of corporations.

  1. Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Olazarán

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD, with control of vascular factors (VFs. Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (nD, past depression (pD, present depression (prD, and present and past depression (prpD. Logistic regression was used. Results. Data of 1,807 subjects were investigated at baseline (mean age 74.3, 59.3% women, and 1,376 (81.6% subjects were evaluated after three years. The prevalence of dementia at baseline was 6.7%, and dementia incidence was 6.3%. An effect of depression was observed on dementia prevalence (OR [CI 95%] 1.84 [1.01–3.35] for prD and 2.73 [1.08–6.87] for prpD, and on dementia due to AD (OR 1.98 [0.98–3.99] for prD and OR 3.98 [1.48–10.71] for prpD (fully adjusted models, nD as reference. Depression did not influence dementia incidence. Conclusions. Present depression and, particularly, present and past depression are associated with dementia at old age. Multiple mechanisms, including toxic effect of depression on hippocampal neurons, plausibly explain these associations.

  2. Quantitative cumulative biodistribution of antibodies in mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Victor; Palma, Enzo; Tesar, Devin B; Mundo, Eduardo E; Bumbaca, Daniela; Torres, Elizabeth K; Reyes, Noe A; Shen, Ben Q; Fielder, Paul J; Prabhu, Saileta; Khawli, Leslie A; Boswell, C Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) plays an important and well-known role in antibody recycling in endothelial and hematopoietic cells and thus it influences the systemic pharmacokinetics (PK) of immunoglobulin G (IgG). However, considerably less is known about FcRn’s role in the metabolism of IgG within individual tissues after intravenous administration. To elucidate the organ distribution and gain insight into the metabolism of humanized IgG1 antibodies with different binding affinities FcRn, comparative biodistribution studies in normal CD-1 mice were conducted. Here, we generated variants of herpes simplex virus glycoprotein D-specific antibody (humanized anti-gD) with increased and decreased FcRn binding affinity by genetic engineering without affecting antigen specificity. These antibodies were expressed in Chinese hamster ovary cell lines, purified and paired radiolabeled with iodine-125 and indium-111. Equal amounts of I-125-labeled and In-111-labeled antibodies were mixed and intravenously administered into mice at 5 mg/kg. This approach allowed us to measure both the real-time IgG uptake (I-125) and cumulative uptake of IgG and catabolites (In-111) in individual tissues up to 1 week post-injection. The PK and distribution of the wild-type IgG and the variant with enhanced binding for FcRn were largely similar to each other, but vastly different for the rapidly cleared low-FcRn-binding variant. Uptake in individual tissues varied across time, FcRn binding affinity, and radiolabeling method. The liver and spleen emerged as the most concentrated sites of IgG catabolism in the absence of FcRn protection. These data provide an increased understanding of FcRn’s role in antibody PK and catabolism at the tissue level. PMID:24572100

  3. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  4. Poverty and Vulnerability - An Interdisciplinary Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Makoka, Donald; Kaplan, Marcus

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes the concepts of poverty and vulnerability as well as the interconnections and differences between them using an interdisciplinary approach. While poverty is a static concept, vulnerability has a forward-looking dimension. We, therefore, review the methodologies that different disciplines use to measure poverty and vulnerability. In particular, the differences between vulnerability to natural disasters, vulnerability to climate change, as well as vulnerability to poverty a...

  5. CDC's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Social vulnerability refers to the resilience of communities when confronted by external stresses on human health, stresses such as natural or human-caused...

  6. Southern African Coastal vulnerability assessment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rautenbach, C

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available or business. The CSIR coastal systems group uses specialist skills in coastal engineering, geographic engineering systems and numerical modelling to assess and map vulnerable coastal ecosystems to develop specific adaptation measures and coastal protection...

  7. CALTRANS CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The following report was developed for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to summarize a vulnerability assessment conducted for assets in Caltrans District 4. The assessment was developed to specifically identify the potential eff...

  8. Network Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alward, Randy G; Carley, Kathleen M; Madsen, Fredrik; Taylor, Vincent K; Vandenberghe, Grant

    2006-01-01

    To help understand a network and its ability to continue operating when under attack, the break out group discussed issues that need to be considered when presenting network vulnerability information...

  9. A Framework for Treating Cumulative Trauma with Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naff, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    Cumulative trauma is relatively undocumented in art therapy practice, although there is growing evidence that art therapy provides distinct benefits for resolving various traumas. This qualitative study proposes an art therapy treatment framework for cumulative trauma derived from semi-structured interviews with three art therapists and artistic…

  10. Cumulative effects of forest management activities: how might they occur?

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. M. Rice; R. B. Thomas

    1985-01-01

    Concerns are often voiced about possible environmental damage as the result of the cumulative sedimentation effects of logging and forest road construction. In response to these concerns, National Forests are developing procedures to reduce the possibility that their activities may lead to unacceptable cumulative effects

  11. Cumulative effect in multiple production processes on nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golubyatnikova, E.S.; Shmonin, V.L.; Kalinkin, B.N.

    1989-01-01

    It is shown that the cumulative effect is a natural result of the process of hadron multiple production in nuclear reactions. Interpretation is made of the universality of slopes of inclusive spectra and other characteristics of cumulative hadrons. The character of information from such reactions is discussed, which could be helpful in studying the mechanism of multiparticle production. 27 refs.; 4 figs

  12. Cumulative particle production in the quark recombination model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gavrilov, V.B.; Leksin, G.A.

    1987-01-01

    Production of cumulative particles in hadron-nuclear inteactions at high energies is considered within the framework of recombination quark model. Predictions for inclusive cross sections of production of cumulative particles and different resonances containing quarks in s state are made

  13. Vulnerability Assessments in Ethical Hacking

    OpenAIRE

    Ashiqur Rahman ,; Md. SarwarAlam Rasel; Asaduzzaman Noman; Shakh Md. Alimuzjaman Alim

    2016-01-01

    Ethical hackers use the same methods and techniques to test and bypass a system's defenses as their less-principled counterparts, but rather than taking advantage of any vulnerabilities found, they document them and provide actionable advice on how to fix them so the organization can improve its overall security. The purpose of ethical hacking is to evaluate the security of a network or system's infrastructure. It entails finding and attempting to exploit any vulnerabilities to de...

  14. Software Design Level Security Vulnerabilities

    OpenAIRE

    S. Rehman; K. Mustafa

    2011-01-01

    Several thousand software design vulnerabilities have been reported through established databases. But they need to be structured and classified to be optimally usable in the pursuit of minimal and effective mitigation mechanism. In order we developed a criterion set for a communicative description of the same to serve the purpose as a taxonomic description of security vulnerabilities, arising in the design phase of Software development lifecycle. This description is a part of an effort to id...

  15. High cumulants of conserved charges and their statistical uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li-Zhu, Chen; Ye-Yin, Zhao; Xue, Pan; Zhi-Ming, Li; Yuan-Fang, Wu

    2017-10-01

    We study the influence of measured high cumulants of conserved charges on their associated statistical uncertainties in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. With a given number of events, the measured cumulants randomly fluctuate with an approximately normal distribution, while the estimated statistical uncertainties are found to be correlated with corresponding values of the obtained cumulants. Generally, with a given number of events, the larger the cumulants we measure, the larger the statistical uncertainties that are estimated. The error-weighted averaged cumulants are dependent on statistics. Despite this effect, however, it is found that the three sigma rule of thumb is still applicable when the statistics are above one million. Supported by NSFC (11405088, 11521064, 11647093), Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (2014CB845402) and Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST) (2016YFE0104800)

  16. Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramstein, Gilles; Tan, Ning; Ladant, Jean-baptiste; Dumas, Christophe; Contoux, Camille

    2017-04-01

    During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), the global annual mean temperatures inferred by data and model studies were 2-3° warmer than pre-industrial values. Accordingly, Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to reach at the most, only half of that of present-day [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ˜ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, the Greenland ice sheet has reached its full size [Lunt et al. 2008]. A crucial question concerns the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet from half to full size during the 3 - 2.5 Ma period. Data show a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined with low summer insolation to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maxima. This suggests rather a cumulative process than an abrupt event. In order to diagnose the evolution of the ice sheet build-up, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables us to investigate the waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. We use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014), which allows the evolution of CO2 concentration and of orbital parameters, and the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet size to be taken into account. By interpolating climatic snapshot simulations ran with various possible combinations of CO2, orbits and ice sheet sizes, we can build a continuous climatic forcing that is then used to provide 500 kyrs-long ice sheet simulations. With such a tool, we may offer a physically based answer to different CO2 reconstructions scenarios and analyse which one is the most consistent with Greenland ice sheet buildup.

  17. Sugars from woody tissue photosynthesis reduce xylem vulnerability to cavitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Baerdemaeker, Niels J F; Salomón, Roberto Luis; De Roo, Linus; Steppe, Kathy

    2017-11-01

    Reassimilation of internal CO 2 via woody tissue photosynthesis has a substantial effect on tree carbon income and wood production. However, little is known about its role in xylem vulnerability to cavitation and its implications in drought-driven tree mortality. Young trees of Populus nigra were subjected to light exclusion at the branch and stem levels. After 40 d, measurements of xylem water potential, diameter variation and acoustic emission (AE) were performed in detached branches to obtain acoustic vulnerability curves to cavitation following bench-top dehydration. Acoustic vulnerability curves and derived AE 50 values (i.e. water potential at which 50% of cavitation-related acoustic emissions occur) differed significantly between light-excluded and control branches (AE 50,light-excluded  = -1.00 ± 0.13 MPa; AE 50,control  = -1.45 ± 0.09 MPa; P = 0.007) denoting higher vulnerability to cavitation in light-excluded trees. Woody tissue photosynthesis represents an alternative and immediate source of nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC) that confers lower xylem vulnerability to cavitation via sugar-mediated mechanisms. Embolism repair and xylem structural changes could not explain this observation as the amount of cumulative AE and basic wood density did not differ between treatments. We suggest that woody tissue assimilates might play a role in the synthesis of xylem surfactants for nanobubble stabilization under tension. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  18. An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

  19. An analysis of cumulative risks based on biomonitoring data for six phthalates using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single chemical drives the cumulative risk of an individual exposed to multiple chemicals. Phthalates are a class of chemicals with ubiquitous exposures in the general population that have the potential to cause ...

  20. SOCIAL STABILITY AND HIV RISK BEHAVIOR: EVALUATING THE ROLE OF ACCUMULATED VULNERABILITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A.

    2011-01-01

    This study evaluated a cumulative and syndromic relationship among commonly co-occurring vulnerabilites (homelessness, incarceration, low-income, residential transition) in association with HIV-related risk behaviors among 635 low-income women in Baltimore. Analysis included descriptive statistics, logistic regression, latent class analysis and latent class regression. Both methods of assessing multidimensional instability showed significant associations with risk indicators. Risk of multiple partners, sex exchange, and drug use decreased significantly with each additional domain. Higher stability class membership (77%) was associated with decreased likelihood of multiple partners, exchange partners, recent drug use, and recent STI. Multidimensional social vulnerabilities were cumulatively and synergistically linked to HIV risk behavior. Independent instability measures may miss important contextual determinants of risk. Social stability offers a useful framework to understand the synergy of social vulnerabilities that shape sexual risk behavior. Social policies and programs aiming to enhance housing and overall social stability are likely to be beneficial for HIV prevention. PMID:21259043

  1. Cumulative stress and autonomic dysregulation in a community sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampert, Rachel; Tuit, Keri; Hong, Kwang-Ik; Donovan, Theresa; Lee, Forrester; Sinha, Rajita

    2016-05-01

    Whether cumulative stress, including both chronic stress and adverse life events, is associated with decreased heart rate variability (HRV), a non-invasive measure of autonomic status which predicts poor cardiovascular outcomes, is unknown. Healthy community dwelling volunteers (N = 157, mean age 29 years) participated in the Cumulative Stress/Adversity Interview (CAI), a 140-item event interview measuring cumulative adversity including major life events, life trauma, recent life events and chronic stressors, and underwent 24-h ambulatory ECG monitoring. HRV was analyzed in the frequency domain and standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN) calculated. Initial simple regression analyses revealed that total cumulative stress score, chronic stressors and cumulative adverse life events (CALE) were all inversely associated with ultra low-frequency (ULF), very low-frequency (VLF) and low-frequency (LF) power and SDNN (all p accounting for additional appreciable variance. For VLF and LF, both total cumulative stress and chronic stress significantly contributed to the variance alone but were not longer significant after adjusting for race and health behaviors. In summary, total cumulative stress, and its components of adverse life events and chronic stress were associated with decreased cardiac autonomic function as measured by HRV. Findings suggest one potential mechanism by which stress may exert adverse effects on mortality in healthy individuals. Primary preventive strategies including stress management may prove beneficial.

  2. Future Extreme Event Vulnerability in the Rural Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, J.; Bowen, F. L.; Partridge, T.; Chipman, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Future climate change impacts on humans will be determined by the convergence of evolving physical climate and socioeconomic systems. Of particular concern is the intersection of extreme events and vulnerable populations. Rural areas of the Northeastern United States have experienced increased temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over the past three decades, and face unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resources dependent economies, and high poverty rates. To explore the impacts of future extreme events on vulnerable, rural populations in the Northeast, we project extreme events and vulnerability indicators to identify where changes in extreme events and vulnerable populations coincide. Specifically, we analyze future (2046-2075) maximum annual daily temperature, minimum annual daily temperature, maximum annual daily precipitation, and maximum consecutive dry day length for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using four global climate models (GCM) and a gridded observational dataset. We then overlay those projections with estimates of county-level population and relative income for 2060 to calculate changes in person-events from historical (1976-2005), with a focus on Northeast counties that have less than 250,000 people and are in the bottom income quartile. We find that across the rural Northeast for RCP4.5, heat person-events per year increase tenfold, far exceeding decreases in cold person-events and relatively small changes in precipitation and drought person-events. Counties in the bottom income quartile have historically (1976-2005) experienced a disproportionate number of heat events, and counties in the bottom two income quartiles are projected to experience a greater heat event increase by 2046-2075 than counties in the top two income quartiles. We further explore the relative contributions of event frequency, population, and income changes to the total and geographic distribution of climate change

  3. Can friends protect genetically vulnerable children from depression?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brendgen, Mara; Vitaro, Frank; Bukowski, William M; Dionne, Ginette; Tremblay, Richard E; Boivin, Michel

    2013-05-01

    The study examined whether reciprocal friendship quantity or quality can mitigate genetic vulnerability for depression symptoms in children. The sample comprised 168 monozygotic twin pairs and 126 same-sex dizygotic twin pairs assessed in Grade 4 (mean age = 10.04 years). Friendship participation was measured via reciprocal nominations of close friendships within the classroom. Friendship quality was measured through self-reports. Depression symptoms were measured through teacher and peer reports. Genetic vulnerability for depression symptoms was unrelated to friendship participation or the number of reciprocal friends, but it was negatively related to positive friendship quality. In line with gene-environment interaction, genetic risk effects on depression symptoms were mitigated in girls who had at least one close reciprocal friend. In boys, only moderate main effects of genetic vulnerability and friendship participation were found but no interaction between them. However, among boys with at least one reciprocal friend, a greater number of friends was related to fewer depression symptoms whereas no cumulative effect of friendship was found for girls. Finally, positive friendship quality was related to fewer depression symptoms in girls and boys even when controlling for genetic risk. The findings emphasize the importance of teaching social interactional skills that promote high-quality friendship relations to help prevent the development of depression symptoms in children.

  4. Cumulants in perturbation expansions for non-equilibrium field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fauser, R.

    1995-11-01

    The formulation of perturbation expansions for a quantum field theory of strongly interacting systems in a general non-equilibrium state is discussed. Non-vanishing initial correlations are included in the formulation of the perturbation expansion in terms of cumulants. The cumulants are shown to be the suitable candidate for summing up the perturbation expansion. Also a linked-cluster theorem for the perturbation series with cumulants is presented. Finally a generating functional of the perturbation series with initial correlations is studied. We apply the methods to a simple model of a fermion-boson system. (orig.)

  5. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

  6. The SAVI vulnerability assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winblad, A.E.

    1987-01-01

    The assessment model ''Systematic Analysis of Vulnerability to Intrusion'' (SAVI) presented in this report is a PC-based path analysis model. It can provide estimates of protection system effectiveness (or vulnerability) against a spectrum of outsider threats including collusion with an insider adversary. It calculates one measure of system effectiveness, the probability of interruption P(I), for all potential adversary paths. SAVI can perform both theft and sabotage vulnerability analyses. For theft, the analysis is based on the assumption that adversaries should be interrupted either before they can accomplish removal of the target material from its normal location or removal from the site boundary. For sabotage, the analysis is based on the assumption that adversaries should be interrupted before completion of their sabotage task

  7. New approach to analyzing vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Callaghan, P.B.; Carlson, R.L.; Riedeman, G.W.

    1986-01-01

    The Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) has recently completed construction of the Fuel Cycle Plant (FCP) at Richland, Washington. At start-up the facility will fabricate driver fuel for the Fast Flux Test Facility in the Secure Automated Fabrication line. After construction completion, but before facility certification, the Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Operation Office requested that a vulnerability analysis be performed which assumed multiple insiders as a threat to the security system. A unique method of analyzing facility vulnerabilities was developed at the Security Applications Center (SAC), which is managed by WHC for DOE. The method that was developed verifies a previous vulnerability assessment, as well as introducing a modeling technique which analyzes security alarms in relation to delaying factors and possible insider activities. With this information it is possible to assess the relative strength or weakness of various possible routes to and from a target within a facility

  8. Europe's vulnerability to energy crises

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-01-15

    The growing dependency of Europe as a whole on energy imports and anticipated further increases in energy prices reinforce the concerns about meeting the energy demand in the future. The objective of the Study is to identify the threats leading to potential energy crises and suggest solutions for facing, in an appropriate way, the related key challenges. In addition, the Study intends to develop a number of indicators effective enough to assess the level of different types of vulnerability, as well the overall vulnerability of a country or region, including threats to physical disruption, higher energy prices etc. The use of vulnerability indicators is highly recommended for all WEC-European countries, as well as to policy makers and market players.

  9. Heat pumps: heat recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pielke, R

    1976-01-01

    The author firstly explains in a general manner the functioning of the heat pump. Following a brief look at the future heat demand and the possibilities of covering it, the various methods of obtaining energy (making use of solar energy, ground heat, and others) and the practical applications (office heating, swimming pool heating etc.) are explained. The author still sees considerable difficulties in using the heat pump at present on a large scale. Firstly there is not enough maintenance personnel available, secondly the electricity supply undertakings cannot provide the necessary electricity on a wide basis without considerable investments. Other possibilities to save energy or to use waste energy are at present easier and more economical to realize. Recuperative and regenerative systems are described.

  10. Vulnerability in north- central Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casse, Thorkil; Milhøj, Anders; Nguyen, Thao Phuong

    2015-01-01

    This article examines changes in livelihood strategies in response to flooding. It does so on the basis of a household survey which was undertaken in three provinces in north central Vietnam. All households in the survey were regularly affected by flooding, but only poor households experience a l...... the impact of flooding in the provinces. The article ends by looking at the vulnerability-resilience debate concluding that the poorer households could enter a vulnerability loop, unless new strategies to cope with natural hazards are suggested....

  11. Managing a network vulnerability assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R; Blackley, John A

    2003-01-01

    Managing a Network Vulnerability Assessment provides a formal framework for finding and eliminating network security threats, ensuring that no vulnerabilities are overlooked. This thorough overview focuses on the steps necessary to successfully manage an assessment, including the development of a scope statement, the understanding and proper use of assessment methodology, the creation of an expert assessment team, and the production of a valuable response report. The book also details what commercial, freeware, and shareware tools are available, how they work, and how to use them.

  12. Cumulative Environmental Impacts: Science and Policy to Protect Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Gina M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Zeise, Lauren; Faust, John B

    2016-01-01

    Many communities are located near multiple sources of pollution, including current and former industrial sites, major roadways, and agricultural operations. Populations in such locations are predominantly low-income, with a large percentage of minorities and non-English speakers. These communities face challenges that can affect the health of their residents, including limited access to health care, a shortage of grocery stores, poor housing quality, and a lack of parks and open spaces. Environmental exposures may interact with social stressors, thereby worsening health outcomes. Age, genetic characteristics, and preexisting health conditions increase the risk of adverse health effects from exposure to pollutants. There are existing approaches for characterizing cumulative exposures, cumulative risks, and cumulative health impacts. Although such approaches have merit, they also have significant constraints. New developments in exposure monitoring, mapping, toxicology, and epidemiology, especially when informed by community participation, have the potential to advance the science on cumulative impacts and to improve decision making.

  13. Pesticide Cumulative Risk Assessment: Framework for Screening Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides guidance on how to screen groups of pesticides for cumulative evaluation using a two-step approach: begin with evaluation of available toxicological information and, if necessary, follow up with a risk-based screening approach.

  14. Online Scheduling in Manufacturing A Cumulative Delay Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Suwa, Haruhiko

    2013-01-01

    Online scheduling is recognized as the crucial decision-making process of production control at a phase of “being in production" according to the released shop floor schedule. Online scheduling can be also considered as one of key enablers to realize prompt capable-to-promise as well as available-to-promise to customers along with reducing production lead times under recent globalized competitive markets. Online Scheduling in Manufacturing introduces new approaches to online scheduling based on a concept of cumulative delay. The cumulative delay is regarded as consolidated information of uncertainties under a dynamic environment in manufacturing and can be collected constantly without much effort at any points in time during a schedule execution. In this approach, the cumulative delay of the schedule has the important role of a criterion for making a decision whether or not a schedule revision is carried out. The cumulative delay approach to trigger schedule revisions has the following capabilities for the ...

  15. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  16. Peer tutors as learning and teaching partners: a cumulative ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... paper explores the kinds of development in tutors' thinking and action that are possible when training and development is theoretically informed, coherent, and oriented towards improving practice. Keywords: academic development, academic literacies, cumulative learning, higher education, peer tutoring, writing centres.

  17. CTD Information Guide. Preventing Cumulative Trauma Disorders in the Workplace

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide Army occupational safety and health (OSH) professionals with a primer that explains the basic principles of ergonomic-hazard recognition for common cumulative trauma disorders...

  18. Cumulative radiation exposure in children with cystic fibrosis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Reilly, R

    2010-02-01

    This retrospective study calculated the cumulative radiation dose for children with cystic fibrosis (CF) attending a tertiary CF centre. Information on 77 children with a mean age of 9.5 years, a follow up time of 658 person years and 1757 studies including 1485 chest radiographs, 215 abdominal radiographs and 57 computed tomography (CT) scans, of which 51 were thoracic CT scans, were analysed. The average cumulative radiation dose was 6.2 (0.04-25) mSv per CF patient. Cumulative radiation dose increased with increasing age and number of CT scans and was greater in children who presented with meconium ileus. No correlation was identified between cumulative radiation dose and either lung function or patient microbiology cultures. Radiation carries a risk of malignancy and children are particularly susceptible. Every effort must be made to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure in these patients whose life expectancy is increasing.

  19. Vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in Seoul, Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, Ji-Young; Anderson, G Brooke; Bell, Michelle L; Lee, Jong-Tae

    2011-01-01

    Studies indicate that the mortality effects of temperature may vary by population and region, although little is known about the vulnerability of subgroups to these risks in Korea. This study examined the relationship between temperature and cause-specific mortality for Seoul, Korea, for the period 2000-7, including whether some subgroups are particularly vulnerable with respect to sex, age, education and place of death. The authors applied time-series models allowing nonlinear relationships for heat- and cold-related mortality, and generated exposure-response curves. Both high and low ambient temperatures were associated with increased risk for daily mortality. Mortality risk was 10.2% (95% confidence interval 7.43, 13.0%) higher at the 90th percentile of daily mean temperatures (25 deg. C) compared to the 50th percentile (15 deg. C). Mortality risk was 12.2% (3.69, 21.3%) comparing the 10th (-1 deg. C) and 50th percentiles of temperature. Cardiovascular deaths showed a higher risk to cold, whereas respiratory deaths showed a higher risk to heat effect, although the differences were not statistically significant. Susceptible populations were identified such as females, the elderly, those with no education, and deaths occurring outside of a hospital for heat- and cold-related total mortality. Our findings provide supportive evidence of a temperature-mortality relationship in Korea and indicate that some subpopulations are particularly vulnerable.

  20. Cumulative query method for influenza surveillance using search engine data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Dong-Woo; Jo, Min-Woo; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Shin, Soo-Yong; Lee, JaeHo; Yu, Maengsoo; Kim, Won Young; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Lee, Sang-Il

    2014-12-16

    Internet search queries have become an important data source in syndromic surveillance system. However, there is currently no syndromic surveillance system using Internet search query data in South Korea. The objective of this study was to examine correlations between our cumulative query method and national influenza surveillance data. Our study was based on the local search engine, Daum (approximately 25% market share), and influenza-like illness (ILI) data from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A quota sampling survey was conducted with 200 participants to obtain popular queries. We divided the study period into two sets: Set 1 (the 2009/10 epidemiological year for development set 1 and 2010/11 for validation set 1) and Set 2 (2010/11 for development Set 2 and 2011/12 for validation Set 2). Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated between the Daum data and the ILI data for the development set. We selected the combined queries for which the correlation coefficients were .7 or higher and listed them in descending order. Then, we created a cumulative query method n representing the number of cumulative combined queries in descending order of the correlation coefficient. In validation set 1, 13 cumulative query methods were applied, and 8 had higher correlation coefficients (min=.916, max=.943) than that of the highest single combined query. Further, 11 of 13 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 4 of 13 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. In validation set 2, 8 of 15 cumulative query methods showed higher correlation coefficients (min=.975, max=.987) than that of the highest single combined query. All 15 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 6 of 15 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. Cumulative query method showed relatively higher correlation with national influenza surveillance data than combined queries in the development and validation set.

  1. Steps and pips in the history of the cumulative recorder.

    OpenAIRE

    Lattal, Kennon A

    2004-01-01

    From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This review traces the evolution of the cumulative recorder from Skinner's early modified kymographs through various models developed by Skinner and his co...

  2. Mapping Cumulative Impacts of Human Activities on Marine Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    , Seaplan

    2018-01-01

    Given the diversity of human uses and natural resources that converge in coastal waters, the potential independent and cumulative impacts of those uses on marine ecosystems are important to consider during ocean planning. This study was designed to support the development and implementation of the 2009 Massachusetts Ocean Management Plan. Its goal was to estimate and visualize the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal and marine ecosystems in the state and federal waters off of Ma...

  3. Municipal vulnerability to climate change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mambo, Julia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available South Africa, like the rest of Africa, is considered highly vulnerable to climate change and variability as well as to global change. Climate change is and will continue to be an issue of concern in the development of the country. South Africa faces...

  4. Autonomy, Vulnerability, Recognition, and Justice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anderson, J.H.; Honneth, A.

    2005-01-01

    One of liberalism’s core commitments is to safeguarding individuals’ autonomy. And a central aspect of liberal social justice is the commitment to protecting the vulnerable. Taken together, and combined with an understanding of autonomy as an acquired set of capacities to lead one’s own life,

  5. Decision Vulnerability Analysis (DVA) Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    31 14 Graphical Representation of the Summary Judgments of the Effectiveness, Vulnerability, and Understanding of the Subsystems’ as Judged by...posed several challenges. Numerous organizational typologies have been suggested over the years ( Robbins , 1994), and these typologies are often based...structure and functioning from a typology perspective ( Robbins , 1994), excerpts from a task analysis that described how the analysts currently performed

  6. 1C software vulnerabilities description

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanov Oleg

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the vulnerability of the application solution based on the “1C: Enterprise 8” platform, which can be used by only built-in tools of the platform. Possible threats and attack algorithm are described.

  7. Underground Economics for Vulnerability Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Allodi, L.

    The estimation of vulnerability risk is at the core of any IT security management strategy. Among technical and infrastructural metrics of risk, attacker economics represent an emerging new aspect that several risk assessment methodologies propose to consider (e.g., based on game theory). Yet the

  8. Trust, Endangerment and Divine Vulnerability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Mikkel Gabriel

    2017-01-01

    Faith is trusting God in the midst of endangerment. Yet, human experience of excessive suffering has challenged any spontaneous trust in God. In this article, I reconsider the idea of faith as trust in God, adding an emphasis on the divine vulnerability in the incarnation, and I develop a more...

  9. Heat pipe heat storage performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caruso, A; Pasquetti, R [Univ. de Provence, Marseille (FR). Inst. Universitaire des Systemes; Grakovich, L P; Vasiliev, L L [A.V. Luikov Heat and Mass Transfer Inst. of the BSSR, Academy of Sciences, Minsk (BY)

    1989-01-01

    Heat storage offers essential thermal energy saving for heating. A ground heat store equipped with heat pipes connecting it with a heat source and to the user is considered in this paper. It has been shown that such a heat exchanging system along with a batch energy source meets, to a considerable extent, house heating requirements. (author).

  10. Patterns of prednisone use during pregnancy in women with rheumatoid arthritis: Daily and cumulative dose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmsten, Kristin; Rolland, Matthieu; Hebert, Mary F; Clowse, Megan E B; Schatz, Michael; Xu, Ronghui; Chambers, Christina D

    2018-04-01

    To characterize prednisone use in pregnant women with rheumatoid arthritis using individual-level heat-maps and clustering individual trajectories of prednisone dose, and to evaluate the association between prednisone dose trajectory groups and gestational length. This study included pregnant women with rheumatoid arthritis who enrolled in the MotherToBaby Autoimmune Diseases in Pregnancy Study (2003-2014) before gestational week 20 and reported prednisone use without another oral glucocorticoid during pregnancy (n = 254). Information on medication use and pregnancy outcomes was collected by telephone interview plus by medical record review. Prednisone daily dose and cumulative dose were plotted by gestational day using a heat map for each individual. K-means clustering was used to cluster individual trajectories of prednisone dose into groups. The associations between trajectory group and demographics, disease severity measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire at enrollment, and gestational length were evaluated. Women used prednisone 3 to 292 days during pregnancy, with daily doses ranging from <1 to 60 mg. Total cumulative dose ranged from 8 to 6225 mg. Disease severity, non-biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug use, and gestational length varied significantly by trajectory group. After adjusting for disease severity, non-biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug use, and other covariates, the highest vs lowest daily dose trajectory group was associated with reduced gestational age at delivery (β: -2.3 weeks (95%: -3.4, -1.3)), as was the highest vs lowest cumulative dose trajectory group (β: -2.6 weeks (95%: -3.6, -1.5)). In pregnant women with rheumatoid arthritis, patterns of higher prednisone dose were associated with shorter gestational length compared with lower dose. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Heat transfer

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Heat transfer. Heat conduction in solid slab. Convective heat transfer. Non-linear temperature. variation due to flow. HEAT FLUX AT SURFACE. conduction/diffusion.

  12. Heat Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heat Waves Dangers we face during periods of very high temperatures include: Heat cramps: These are muscular pains and spasms due ... that the body is having trouble with the heat. If a heat wave is predicted or happening… - ...

  13. Heat Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's Heat Island Effect Site provides information on heat islands, their impacts, mitigation strategies, related research, a directory of heat island reduction initiatives in U.S. communities, and EPA's Heat Island Reduction Program.

  14. Vulnerability of damage-accumulating systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lind, Niels C.

    1996-01-01

    Disastrous failures have shown that systems can be highly vulnerable. Quantified vulnerability can help designers and regulators to decide how much vulnerability is tolerable. Vulnerability of a system to a specified disturbance is defined as the ratio of the probability of failure of the disturbed system to the probability of failure of the undisturbed system. This vulnerability can be specialized to particular system types. It is adapted here to systems that are expected to deteriorate while in service due to processes such as fatigue, creep, corrosion, aging, neglect or insufficient maintenance. Application is illustrated by vulnerability to fatigue under constant and variable stress

  15. Frailty and life satisfaction in Shanghai older adults: The roles of age and social vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Fang; Gu, Danan; Mitnitski, Arnold

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to examine the relationship between frailty and life satisfaction and the roles of age and social vulnerability underlying the links in Chinese older adults. Using a cross-sectional sample of 1970 adults aged 65 and older in 2013 in Shanghai, we employed regression analyses to investigate the interaction between frailty and age on life satisfaction in the whole sample and in different social vulnerability groups. Life satisfaction was measured using a sum score of satisfaction with thirteen domains. Using a cumulative deficit approach, frailty was constructed from fifty-two variables and social vulnerability was derived from thirty-five variables. Frailty was negatively associated with life satisfaction. The interaction between frailty and age was significant for life satisfaction, such that the negative association between frailty and life satisfaction was stronger among the young-old aged 65-79 than among the old-old aged 80+. Moreover, frailty's stronger association with life satisfaction in the young-old than in the old-old was only found among those in the 2nd and 3rd tertiles of social vulnerability, but not for those in the 1st tertile of social vulnerability. Relation between frailty and life satisfaction likely weakens with age. A higher level of social vulnerability enlarges the negative impact of frailty on life satisfaction with a greater extent in the young-old. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A review of vulnerability and risks for schizophrenia: Beyond the two hit hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Justin; Eyre, Harris; Jacka, Felice N; Dodd, Seetal; Dean, Olivia; McEwen, Sarah; Debnath, Monojit; McGrath, John; Maes, Michael; Amminger, Paul; McGorry, Patrick D; Pantelis, Christos; Berk, Michael

    2016-06-01

    Schizophrenia risk has often been conceptualized using a model which requires two hits in order to generate the clinical phenotype-the first as an early priming in a genetically predisposed individual and the second a likely environmental insult. The aim of this paper was to review the literature and reformulate this binary risk-vulnerability model. We sourced the data for this narrative review from the electronic database PUBMED. Our search terms were not limited by language or date of publication. The development of schizophrenia may be driven by genetic vulnerability interacting with multiple vulnerability factors including lowered prenatal vitamin D exposure, viral infections, smoking intelligence quotient, social cognition cannabis use, social defeat, nutrition and childhood trauma. It is likely that these genetic risks, environmental risks and vulnerability factors are cumulative and interactive with each other and with critical periods of neurodevelopmental vulnerability. The development of schizophrenia is likely to be more complex and nuanced than the binary two hit model originally proposed nearly thirty years ago. Risk appears influenced by a more complex process involving genetic risk interfacing with multiple potentially interacting hits and vulnerability factors occurring at key periods of neurodevelopmental activity, which culminate in the expression of disease state. These risks are common across a number of neuropsychiatric and medical disorders, which might inform common preventive and intervention strategies across non-communicable disorders. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A review of vulnerability and risks for schizophrenia: Beyond the two hit hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Justin; Eyre, Harris; Jacka, Felice N; Dodd, Seetal; Dean, Olivia; McEwen, Sarah; Debnath, Monojit; McGrath, John; Maes, Michael; Amminger, Paul; McGorry, Patrick D; Pantelis, Christos; Berk, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Schizophrenia risk has often been conceptualized using a model which requires two hits in order to generate the clinical phenotype—the first as an early priming in a genetically predisposed individual and the second a likely environmental insult. The aim of this paper was to review the literature and reformulate this binary risk-vulnerability model. We sourced the data for this narrative review from the electronic database PUBMED. Our search terms were not limited by language or date of publication. The development of schizophrenia may be driven by genetic vulnerability interacting with multiple vulnerability factors including lowered prenatal vitamin D exposure, viral infections, smoking intelligence quotient, social cognition cannabis use, social defeat, nutrition and childhood trauma. It is likely that these genetic risks, environmental risks and vulnerability factors are cumulative and interactive with each other and with critical periods of neurodevelopmental vulnerability. The development of schizophrenia is likely to be more complex and nuanced than the binary two hit model originally proposed nearly thirty years ago. Risk appears influenced by a more complex process involving genetic risk interfacing with multiple potentially interacting hits and vulnerability factors occurring at key periods of neurodevelopmental activity, which culminate in the expression of disease state. These risks are common across a number of neuropsychiatric and medical disorders, which might inform common preventive and intervention strategies across non-communicable disorders. PMID:27073049

  18. Assessment of aquifer intrinsic vulnerability using GIS based Drastic model in Sialkot area, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Saqib Khan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The intrinsic vulnerability of a shallow aquifer of Sialkot is assessed using DRASTIC index method. The information required as input for all seven parameters, i.e. depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, the impact of vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity data were collected from literature surveys and on field surveys. A cumulative vulnerability map was developed using the indices obtained as a result of DRASTIC methodology. The values obtained from DRASTIC model for the study area were between 112 and 151. The area was dominated by medium and moderate vulnerable zones covering an area of 446 km2 and 442 km2 respectively. An area of 79 km2 was covered by the low vulnerable zone while the high vulnerable zone encompassed a total area of 38 km2. Least covered area i-e., 09 km2 was found in the vicinity of the very high vulnerable zone. The validation of the DRASTIC model using the nitrate distribution revealed that very high and high indices have the lower percentage of reliability than of the low to moderate zones as compared with the nitrate distribution in the groundwater.

  19. Assessing European wild fire vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.

    2012-04-01

    Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However

  20. Maintenance hemodialysis patients have high cumulative radiation exposure.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kinsella, Sinead M

    2010-10-01

    Hemodialysis is associated with an increased risk of neoplasms which may result, at least in part, from exposure to ionizing radiation associated with frequent radiographic procedures. In order to estimate the average radiation exposure of those on hemodialysis, we conducted a retrospective study of 100 patients in a university-based dialysis unit followed for a median of 3.4 years. The number and type of radiological procedures were obtained from a central radiology database, and the cumulative effective radiation dose was calculated using standardized, procedure-specific radiation levels. The median annual radiation dose was 6.9 millisieverts (mSv) per patient-year. However, 14 patients had an annual cumulative effective radiation dose over 20 mSv, the upper averaged annual limit for occupational exposure. The median total cumulative effective radiation dose per patient over the study period was 21.7 mSv, in which 13 patients had a total cumulative effective radiation dose over 75 mSv, a value reported to be associated with a 7% increased risk of cancer-related mortality. Two-thirds of the total cumulative effective radiation dose was due to CT scanning. The average radiation exposure was significantly associated with the cause of end-stage renal disease, history of ischemic heart disease, transplant waitlist status, number of in-patient hospital days over follow-up, and death during the study period. These results highlight the substantial exposure to ionizing radiation in hemodialysis patients.

  1. Vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-05-04

    May 1, 2006)”, http://www.mod.go.jp/e/d_policy/dp13.html (accessed 1 April 2009). 6 ibid 7 Hongo , Jun. “Japan, U.S. sign accord on forces,” The...Jacobs, G. Keith. "Guam Becoming US Pacific Linchpin." Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter 29 (2003): 38-39. Jun, Hongo . "Japan, U.S. sign accord on forces

  2. Vulnerable participants in health research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordentoft, Helle Merete; Nanna, Kappel

    2011-01-01

    Ethical guidelines for conducting research are embedded in the Helsinki declaration of 1964. We contend that these abstract and intentionally universal guidelines need to be appropriated for social and health care research in which purpose and methods often deviate from medical research. The guid......Ethical guidelines for conducting research are embedded in the Helsinki declaration of 1964. We contend that these abstract and intentionally universal guidelines need to be appropriated for social and health care research in which purpose and methods often deviate from medical research...... and problems of vulnerable patients and - at the same time - respect their integrity without exposing them unnecessarily? The article illuminates the interactional construction of roles and relationships and how they affect the contextual construction of vulnerability. In this respect we demonstrate...

  3. VULNERABILITY OF PART TIME EMPLOYEES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raluca Dimitriu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The employee who concluded a part-time contract is the employee whose normal working hours, calculated weekly or as monthly average, is lower than the number of normal working hours of a comparable full-time employee. Part-time workers generally have the same legal status as full time workers. In fact, the vulnerability of this category of workers is not necessarily legal but rather economic: income - in proportion to the work performed, may be insufficient to cover the needs of living. However, such vulnerability may also have a certain cultural component: in some societies, professional identity is determined by the length of working hours. Also, part time work may hide many types of indirect discrimination.As a result, the part-time contract requires more than a protective legislation: it requires a strategy. This paper proposes a number of milestones of such a strategy, as well as some concrete de lege ferenda proposals.

  4. Groundwater vulnerability map for South Africa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Chiedza Musekiwa

    Coastal vulnerability is the degree to which a coastal system is susceptible to, ... methods, indicator-based approaches, GIS-based decision support systems and ..... E 2005, 'Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Parameters', European Water, vol.

  5. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  6. Aircraft vulnerability analysis by modelling and simulation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Willers, CJ

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available attributable to misuse of the weapon or to missile performance restrictions. This paper analyses some of the factors affecting aircraft vulnerability and demonstrates a structured analysis of the risk and aircraft vulnerability problem. The aircraft...

  7. Helping air quality managers identify vulnerable communities

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wright, C

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available population exposure and vulnerability risk prioritisation model is proposed for potential use by air quality managers in conjunction with their air quality management plans. The model includes factors such as vulnerability caused by poverty, respiratory...

  8. Spatial differences in drought vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perčec Tadić, M.; Cindić, K.; Gajić-Čapka, M.; Zaninović, K.

    2012-04-01

    Drought causes the highest economic losses among all hydro-meteorological events in Croatia. It is the most frequent hazard, which produces the highest damages in the agricultural sector. The climate assessment in Croatia according to the aridity index (defined as the ratio of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) shows that the susceptibility to desertification is present in the warm part of the year and it is mostly pronounced in the Adriatic region and the eastern Croatia lowland. The evidence of more frequent extreme drought events in the last decade is apparent. These facts were motivation to study the drought risk assessment in Croatia. One step in this issue is the construction of the vulnerability map. This map is a complex combination of the geomorphologic and climatological inputs (maps) that are presumed to be natural factors which modify the amount of moisture in the soil. In this study, the first version of the vulnerability map is followed by the updated one that additionally includes the soil types and the land use classes. The first input considered is the geomorphologic slope angle calculated from the digital elevation model (DEM). The SRTM DEM of 100 m resolution is used. The steeper slopes are more likely to lose water and to become dryer. The second climatological parameter, the solar irradiation map, gives for the territory of Croatia the maximum irradiation on the coast. The next meteorological parameter that influences the drought vulnerability is precipitation which is in this assessment included through the precipitation variability expressed by the coefficient of variation. Larger precipitation variability is related with the higher drought vulnerability. The preliminary results for Croatia, according to the recommended procedure in the framework of Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe (DMCSEE project), show the most sensitive areas to drought in the southern Adriatic coast and eastern continental lowland.

  9. Virtuous aging and existential vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laceulle, Hanne

    2017-12-01

    In its efforts to overcome problematic views that associate aging with inevitable decline, contemporary gerontology shows a tendency to focus predominantly on age-related vulnerabilities that science may try to remedy and control. However, gerontology should also offer languages to address vulnerabilities that cannot be remedied because they intrinsically belong to the human condition. After all, these are increasingly radically encountered in later life and should therefore be reflected upon in the study of aging. Humanistic gerontology seems to be the most promising field to look for languages capable of contemplating such existential vulnerabilities. The potential contribution of philosophy in this field remains underdeveloped so far, however. This article therefore aims to introduce insights from the philosophical tradition to (humanistic) gerontology. More specifically, it focuses on the tradition of virtue ethics, arguing that virtue is a particularly relevant notion to explore in dealing with existential vulnerability in later life. The notion of virtue is clarified by discussing a selection of philosophical perspectives on this topic, by Aristotle, MacIntyre and Swanton. Next a brief overview will be given of some of the ways the notion of virtue has found its way into gerontological discourse so far. The article ends with an analysis of the merits of virtue-ethical discourse for the study of aging and later life, and pleads for more inclusion of philosophical ideas such as virtue in gerontology, as these can enrich our conceptual frameworks and help us relate to deep existential questions regarding the experience of aging. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Acclimatization to extreme heat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, M. E.; Ganguly, A. R.; Bhatia, U.

    2017-12-01

    Heat extremes throughout the globe, as well as in the United States, are expected to increase. These heat extremes have been shown to impact human health, resulting in some of the highest levels of lives lost as compared with similar natural disasters. But in order to inform decision makers and best understand future mortality and morbidity, adaptation and mitigation must be considered. Defined as the ability for individuals or society to change behavior and/or adapt physiologically, acclimatization encompasses the gradual adaptation that occurs over time. Therefore, this research aims to account for acclimatization to extreme heat by using a hybrid methodology that incorporates future air conditioning use and installation patterns with future temperature-related time series data. While previous studies have not accounted for energy usage patterns and market saturation scenarios, we integrate such factors to compare the impact of air conditioning as a tool for acclimatization, with a particular emphasis on mortality within vulnerable communities.

  11. Urban Vulnerability Assessment Using AHP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Rezaei

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Physical expansion of urban areas and cities is of great importance nowadays. Irreparable damages will thus be caused by lack of proper planning against natural disasters. Crisis management will therefore guide through prevention, preparedness, disaster relief, and recovery by planning an appropriate program. Methodology. Principal processes of crisis management against earthquake in Iran were evaluated and discussed. Multicriteria earthquake crisis management was then proposed by means of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Vulnerability of 19 urban areas in Qazvin city was studied and analyzed as a case study. Three main criteria were considered as “physical dimensions and physical vulnerability texture,” “the amount of urban texture responsibility to aid after crisis,” and “possibility of city reversibility after the crisis.” These criteria were divided into 20 subcriteria which were prioritized by a questionnaire survey. Findings. “High population density,” “urban texture of old and repairable buildings,” “lack of relief and medical services,” “a few organic texture areas,” “sidewalks with less than 6 meters width in the region,” and “lack of open spaces in the area” were concluded to be the most important reasons causing high vulnerability of urban texture in Qazvin city.

  12. Enhancing protection for vulnerable waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creed, Irena F.; Lane, Charles R.; Serran, Jacqueline N.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Basu, Nandita B.; Calhoun, Aram J. K.; Christensen, Jay R.; Cohen, Matthew J.; Craft, Christopher; D'Amico, Ellen; Dekeyser, Edward; Fowler, Laurie; Golden, Heather E.; Jawitz, James W.; Kalla, Peter; Kirkman, L. Katherine; Lang, Megan; Leibowitz, Scott G.; Lewis, David B.; Marton, John; McLaughlin, Daniel L.; Raanan-Kiperwas, Hadas; Rains, Mark C.; Rains, Kai C.; Smith, Lora

    2017-11-01

    Governments worldwide do not adequately protect their limited freshwater systems and therefore place freshwater functions and attendant ecosystem services at risk. The best available scientific evidence compels enhanced protections for freshwater systems, especially for impermanent streams and wetlands outside of floodplains that are particularly vulnerable to alteration or destruction. New approaches to freshwater sustainability -- implemented through scientifically informed adaptive management -- are required to protect freshwater systems through periods of changing societal needs. One such approach introduced in the US in 2015 is the Clean Water Rule, which clarified the jurisdictional scope for federally protected waters. However, within hours of its implementation litigants convinced the US Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit to stay the rule, and the subsequently elected administration has now placed it under review for potential revision or rescission. Regardless of its outcome at the federal level, policy and management discussions initiated by the propagation of this rare rulemaking event have potential far-reaching implications at all levels of government across the US and worldwide. At this timely juncture, we provide a scientific rationale and three policy options for all levels of government to meaningfully enhance protection of these vulnerable waters. A fourth option, a 'do-nothing' approach, is wholly inconsistent with the well-established scientific evidence of the importance of these vulnerable waters.

  13. Legislative vulnerability of minority groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paula, Carlos Eduardo Artiaga; Silva, Ana Paula da; Bittar, Cléria Maria Lôbo

    2017-12-01

    Minorities are in an inferior position in society and therefore vulnerable in many aspects. This study analyzes legislative vulnerability and aims to categorize as "weak" or "strong" the protection conferred by law to the following minorities: elderly, disabled, LGBT, Indians, women, children/ adolescents and black people. In order to do so, it was developed a documental research in 30 federal laws in which legal provisions were searched to protect minorities. Next, the articles were organized in the following categories: civil, criminal, administrative, labor and procedural, to be analyzed afterwards. Legal protection was considered "strong" when there were legal provisions that observed the five categories and "weak" when it did not meet this criterion. It was noted that six groups have "strong" legislative protection, which elides the assertion that minorities are outside the law. The exception is the LGBT group, whose legislative protection is weak. In addition, consecrating rights through laws strengthens the institutional channels for minorities to demand their rights. Finally, it was observed that the legislative protection granted tominorities is not homogeneous but rather discriminatory, and there is an interference by the majority group in the rights regulation of vulnerable groups.

  14. PORT SECURITY-Threats and Vulnerabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Kusi, Bernard

    2015-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to identify the threats and the vulnerabilities concerning Takoradi port, and finally recommend measure to overcome the identified threats and vul-nerabilities. Various categories of potential threats and vulnerabilities have been studied throughout the literature review. However, because each port presents a unique sets of threats and vulnerabilities, there was a need to look critically into how Takoradi port operations are being conducted in other to ide...

  15. Cumulative Trauma Among Mayas Living in Southeast Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millender, Eugenia I; Lowe, John

    2017-06-01

    Mayas, having experienced genocide, exile, and severe poverty, are at high risk for the consequences of cumulative trauma that continually resurfaces through current fear of an uncertain future. Little is known about the mental health and alcohol use status of this population. This correlational study explored t/he relationship of cumulative trauma as it relates to social determinants of health (years in the United States, education, health insurance status, marital status, and employment), psychological health (depression symptoms), and health behaviors (alcohol use) of 102 Guatemalan Mayas living in Southeast Florida. The results of this study indicated that, as specific social determinants of health and cumulative trauma increased, depression symptoms (particularly among women) and the risk for harmful alcohol use (particularly among men) increased. Identifying risk factors at an early stage before serious disease or problems are manifest provides room for early screening leading to early identification, early treatment, and better outcomes.

  16. Session: What do we know about cumulative or population impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerlinger, Paul; Manville, Al; Kendall, Bill

    2004-09-01

    This session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of a panel discussion followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The panelists were Paul Kerlinger, Curry and Kerlinger, LLC, Al Manville, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Bill Kendall, US Geological Service. The panel addressed the potential cumulative impacts of wind turbines on bird and bat populations over time. Panel members gave brief presentations that touched on what is currently known, what laws apply, and the usefulness of population modeling. Topics addressed included which sources of modeling should be included in cumulative impacts, comparison of impacts from different modes of energy generation, as well as what research is still needed regarding cumulative impacts of wind energy development on bird and bat populations.

  17. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  18. Evolutionary neural network modeling for software cumulative failure time prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian Liang; Noore, Afzel

    2005-01-01

    An evolutionary neural network modeling approach for software cumulative failure time prediction based on multiple-delayed-input single-output architecture is proposed. Genetic algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the delayed input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network architecture. Modification of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to improve the ability to predict software cumulative failure time. The performance of our proposed approach has been compared using real-time control and flight dynamic application data sets. Numerical results show that both the goodness-of-fit and the next-step-predictability of our proposed approach have greater accuracy in predicting software cumulative failure time compared to existing approaches

  19. Baltic Sea biodiversity status vs. cumulative human pressures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper H.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Korpinen, Samuli

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Many studies have tried to explain spatial and temporal variations in biodiversity status of marine areas from a single-issue perspective, such as fishing pressure or coastal pollution, yet most continental seas experience a wide range of human pressures. Cumulative impact assessments have...... been developed to capture the consequences of multiple stressors for biodiversity, but the ability of these assessments to accurately predict biodiversity status has never been tested or ground-truthed. This relationship has similarly been assumed for the Baltic Sea, especially in areas with impaired...... status, but has also never been documented. Here we provide a first tentative indication that cumulative human impacts relate to ecosystem condition, i.e. biodiversity status, in the Baltic Sea. Thus, cumulative impact assessments offer a promising tool for informed marine spatial planning, designation...

  20. Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

    2012-01-01

    The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO2 relative to other major climate forcing agents. PMID:22869803

  1. Cotton genetic resources and crop vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    A report on the genetic vulnerability of cotton was provided to the National Genetic Resources Advisory Council. The report discussed crop vulnerabilities associated with emerging diseases, emerging pests, and a narrowing genetic base. To address these crop vulnerabilities, the report discussed the ...

  2. Animal models to study plaque vulnerability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schapira, K.; Heeneman, S.; Daemen, M. J. A. P.

    2007-01-01

    The need to identify and characterize vulnerable atherosclerotic lesions in humans has lead to the development of various animal models of plaque vulnerability. In this review, current concepts of the vulnerable plaque as it leads to an acute coronary event are described, such as plaque rupture,

  3. Heat exchangers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidt, E L; Eisenmann, G; Hahne, E [Stuttgart Univ. (TH) (F.R. Germany). Inst. fuer Thermodynamik und Waermetechnik

    1976-04-01

    A survey is presented on publications on design, heat transfer, form factors, free convection, evaporation processes, cooling towers, condensation, annular gap, cross-flowed cylinders, axial flow through a bundle of tubes, roughnesses, convective heat transfer, loss of pressure, radiative heat transfer, finned surfaces, spiral heat exchangers, curved pipes, regeneraters, heat pipes, heat carriers, scaling, heat recovery systems, materials selection, strength calculation, control, instabilities, automation of circuits, operational problems and optimization.

  4. The role of factorial cumulants in reactor neutron noise theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombino, A.; Pacilio, N.; Sena, G.

    1979-01-01

    The physical meaning and the combinatorial implications of the factorial cumulant of a state variable such as the number of neutrons or the number of neutron counts are specified. Features of the presentation are: (1) the fission process is treated in its entirety without the customary binary emission restriction, (b) the introduction of the factorial cumulants helps in reducing the complexity of the mathematical problems, (c) all the solutions can be obtained analytically. Only the ergodic hypothesis for the neutron population evolution is dealt with. (author)

  5. Super-Resolution Algorithm in Cumulative Virtual Blanking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montillet, J. P.; Meng, X.; Roberts, G. W.; Woolfson, M. S.

    2008-11-01

    The proliferation of mobile devices and the emergence of wireless location-based services have generated consumer demand for precise location. In this paper, the MUSIC super-resolution algorithm is applied to time delay estimation for positioning purposes in cellular networks. The goal is to position a Mobile Station with UMTS technology. The problem of Base-Stations herability is solved using Cumulative Virtual Blanking. A simple simulator is presented using DS-SS signal. The results show that MUSIC algorithm improves the time delay estimation in both the cases whether or not Cumulative Virtual Blanking was carried out.

  6. Measuring vulnerability to disaster displacement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brink, Susan A.; Khazai, Bijan; Power, Christopher; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2015-04-01

    Large scale disasters can cause devastating impacts in terms of population displacement. Between 2008 and 2013, on average 27 million people were displaced annually by disasters (Yonetani 2014). After large events such as hurricane Katrina or the Port-au-Prince earthquake, images of inadequate public shelter and concerns about large scale and often inequitable migration have been broadcast around the world. Population displacement can often be one of the most devastating and visible impacts of a natural disaster. Despite the importance of population displacement in disaster events, measures to understand the socio-economic vulnerability of a community often use broad metrics to estimate the total socio-economic risk of an event rather than focusing on the specific impacts that a community faces in a disaster. Population displacement is complex and multi-causal with the physical impact of a disaster interacting with vulnerability arising from the response, environmental issues (e.g., weather), cultural concerns (e.g., expectations of adequate shelter), and many individual factors (e.g., mobility, risk perception). In addition to the complexity of the causes, population displacement is difficult to measure because of the wide variety of different terms and definitions and its multi-dimensional nature. When we speak of severe population displacement, we may refer to a large number of displaced people, an extended length of displacement or associated difficulties such as poor shelter quality, risk of violence and crime in shelter communities, discrimination in aid, a lack of access to employment or other difficulties that can be associated with large scale population displacement. We have completed a thorough review of the literature on disaster population displacement. Research has been conducted on historic events to understand the types of negative impacts associated with population displacement and also the vulnerability of different groups to these impacts. We

  7. Component Cooling Heat Exchanger Heat Transfer Capability Operability Monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihalina, M.; Djetelic, N.

    2010-01-01

    The ultimate heat sink (UHS) is of highest importance for nuclear power plant safe and reliable operation. The most important component in line from safety-related heat sources to the ultimate heat sink water body is a component cooling heat exchanger (CC Heat Exchanger). The Component Cooling Heat Exchanger has a safety-related function to transfer the heat from the Component Cooling (CC) water system to the Service Water (SW) system. SW systems throughout the world have been the root of many plant problems because the water source, usually river, lake, sea or cooling pond, are conductive to corrosion, erosion, biofouling, debris intrusion, silt, sediment deposits, etc. At Krsko NPP, these problems usually cumulate in the summer period from July to August, with higher Sava River (service water system) temperatures. Therefore it was necessary to continuously evaluate the CC Heat Exchanger operation and confirm that the system would perform its intended function in accordance with the plant's design basis, given as a minimum heat transfer rate in the heat exchanger design specification sheet. The Essential Service Water system at Krsko NPP is an open cycle cooling system which transfers heat from safety and non-safety-related systems and components to the ultimate heat sink the Sava River. The system is continuously in operation in all modes of plant operation, including plant shutdown and refueling. However, due to the Sava River impurities and our limited abilities of the water treatment, the system is subject to fouling, sedimentation buildup, corrosion and scale formation, which could negatively impact its performance being unable to satisfy its safety related post accident heat removal function. Low temperature difference and high fluid flows make it difficult to evaluate the CC Heat Exchanger due to its specific design. The important effects noted are measurement uncertainties, nonspecific construction, high heat transfer capacity, and operational specifics (e

  8. Responding to the Effects of Extreme Heat: Baltimore City's Code Red Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    Heat response plans are becoming increasingly more common as US cities prepare for heat waves and other effects of climate change. Standard elements of heat response plans exist, but plans vary depending on geographic location and distribution of vulnerable populations. Because heat events vary over time and affect populations differently based on vulnerability, it is difficult to compare heat response plans and evaluate responses to heat events. This article provides an overview of the Baltimore City heat response plan, the Code Red program, and discusses the city's response to the 2012 Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic Derecho, a complex heat event. Challenges with and strategies for evaluating the program are reviewed and shared.

  9. Cumulative socioeconomic status risk, allostatic load, and adjustment: a prospective latent profile analysis with contextual and genetic protective factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brody, Gene H; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-fu; Kogan, Steven M; Evans, Gary W; Beach, Steven R H; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X; Philibert, Robert A

    2013-05-01

    The health disparities literature has identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative socioeconomic status (SES) risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental precursors to this pattern. Hypotheses were tested with a representative sample of 443 African American youths living in the rural South. Cumulative SES risk and protective processes were assessed at ages 11-13 years; psychological adjustment was assessed at ages 14-18 years; genotyping at the 5-HTTLPR was conducted at age 16 years; and allostatic load (AL) was assessed at age 19 years. A latent profile analysis identified 5 profiles that evinced distinct patterns of SES risk, AL, and psychological adjustment, with 2 relatively large profiles designated as focal profiles: a physical health vulnerability profile characterized by high SES risk/high AL/low adjustment problems, and a resilient profile characterized by high SES risk/low AL/low adjustment problems. The physical health vulnerability profile mirrored the pattern found in the adult health disparities literature. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that carrying an s allele at the 5-HTTLPR and receiving less peer support distinguished the physical health vulnerability profile from the resilient profile. Protective parenting and planful self-regulation distinguished both focal profiles from the other 3 profiles. The results suggest the public health importance of preventive interventions that enhance coping and reduce the effects of stress across childhood and adolescence.

  10. sozialwissenInvestigating public places and impacts of heat stress in the city of Aachen, Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maras, Isabell

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the role of structure and social aspects regarding heat stress of people in urban areas requires an interdisciplinary scientific approach that connects methods from both natural sciences and social sciences. In this study, we combine three approaches to provide an interdisciplinary analysis of the structure and social components of heat stress in the city of Aachen, Germany. First, we assess the overall spatial structure of the urban heat island using spatially distributed measurements from mobile air temperature recordings on public transport units combined with spatially distributed geo-statistical data. The results indicate that the time of day matters: During the afternoon, areas with a relative low building density, like the industrial area northeast of the inner city, are the warmest, while surfaces in high-building-density areas like the inner city heat up faster during the evening. Second, we combine these measurements with place-based survey data collected in 2010 from residents aged 50 to 92 regarding their individual housing conditions, medical history and social integration to examine the match among heat-based stress of older residents, social conditions and elevated temperatures in their residential quarter. We identify disadvantaged areas for specific already-disadvantaged demographic groups in the city, pointing to a cumulation of inequalities, including heat stress among the most vulnerable. Third, we compare data of biometeorological measurements on urban public squares during the afternoon with results of the micrometeorological model ENVI-met to examine the spatial variability of the inner-city heat load. We complement the modelling results with on-site interviews to evaluate people’s heat perception at the same public places. A simulation shows that additional vegetation would increase thermal comfort at these public places, whereby the heat load assessed using the predicted mean vote (PMV value would

  11. Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation : climate information needs for energy managers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirza, M. [Environment Canada, Fredericton, NB (Canada). Adaptation and Impacts Research Division

    2007-07-01

    The future potential of hydropower and the vulnerability of the energy sector in Canada and North America was discussed with particular reference to climate information needs for managers regarding vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. The presentation discussed power line climate design criteria as well as a case study of the 1998 ice storm. Power output at Niagara Falls and on the St. Lawrence River were presented. Fossil fuels, electricity, renewable energy, transmission and transportation, and extreme climate and energy were discussed. Charts were provided to depict the 2001 heat wave and power demand; a summary of climate scenario requirements; the mean electricity demand and mean temperature during 1994 to 2000 in Ontario; runoff sensitivity; and accumulated freezing rain and transmission lines during the January ice storm of 1998. A chart on sources of uncertainty was also provided with reference to measurement error; variability; model structure; and scaling and aggregation. tabs., figs.

  12. Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation : climate information needs for energy managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirza, M.

    2007-01-01

    The future potential of hydropower and the vulnerability of the energy sector in Canada and North America was discussed with particular reference to climate information needs for managers regarding vulnerability, impacts and adaptation. The presentation discussed power line climate design criteria as well as a case study of the 1998 ice storm. Power output at Niagara Falls and on the St. Lawrence River were presented. Fossil fuels, electricity, renewable energy, transmission and transportation, and extreme climate and energy were discussed. Charts were provided to depict the 2001 heat wave and power demand; a summary of climate scenario requirements; the mean electricity demand and mean temperature during 1994 to 2000 in Ontario; runoff sensitivity; and accumulated freezing rain and transmission lines during the January ice storm of 1998. A chart on sources of uncertainty was also provided with reference to measurement error; variability; model structure; and scaling and aggregation. tabs., figs

  13. Cumulative effects of wind turbines. Volume 3: Report on results of consultations on cumulative effects of wind turbines on birds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-07-01

    This report gives details of the consultations held in developing the consensus approach taken in assessing the cumulative effects of wind turbines. Contributions on bird issues, and views of stakeholders, the Countryside Council for Wales, electric utilities, Scottish Natural Heritage, and the National Wind Power Association are reported. The scoping of key species groups, where cumulative effects might be expected, consideration of other developments, the significance of any adverse effects, mitigation, regional capacity assessments, and predictive models are discussed. Topics considered at two stakeholder workshops are outlined in the appendices.

  14. Memory Vulnerability Diagnosis for Binary Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tang Feng-Yi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Vulnerability diagnosis is important for program security analysis. It is a further step to understand the vulnerability after it is detected, as well as a preparatory step for vulnerability repair or exploitation. This paper mainly analyses the inner theories of major memory vulnerabilities and the threats of them. And then suggests some methods to diagnose several types of memory vulnerabilities for the binary programs, which is a difficult task due to the lack of source code. The diagnosis methods target at buffer overflow, use after free (UAF and format string vulnerabilities. We carried out some tests on the Linux platform to validate the effectiveness of the diagnosis methods. It is proved that the methods can judge the type of the vulnerability given a binary program.

  15. Non-Chemical Stressors and Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Current Initiatives and Potential Air Pollutant Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Ari S.; Sax, Sonja N.; Wason, Susan C.; Campleman, Sharan L.

    2011-01-01

    Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit

  16. Cumulative impacts: current research and current opinions at PSW

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. M. Rice

    1987-01-01

    Consideration of cumulative watershed effects (CWEs) has both political and physical aspects. Regardless of the practical usefulness of present methods of dealing with CWEs, the legal requirement to address them remains. Management of federal land is regulated by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and the Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972. The...

  17. Cumulative Risks of Foster Care Placement for Danish Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    children. Our results also show some variations by parental ethnicity and sex, but these differences are small. Indeed, they appear quite muted relative to racial/ethnic differences in these risks in the United States. Last, though cumulative risks are similar between Danish and American children...

  18. Disintegration of a profiled shock wave at the cumulation point

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaliski, S.

    1978-01-01

    The disintegration at the cumulation point is analyzed of a shock wave generated with the aid of a profiled pressure. The quantitative relations are analyzed for the disintegration waves for typical compression parameters in systems of thermonuclear microfusion. The quantitative conclusions are drawn for the application of simplifying approximate calculations in problems of microfusion. (author)

  19. Cumulative Prospect Theory, Option Returns, and the Variance Premium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baele, Lieven; Driessen, Joost; Ebert, Sebastian; Londono Yarce, J.M.; Spalt, Oliver

    The variance premium and the pricing of out-of-the-money (OTM) equity index options are major challenges to standard asset pricing models. We develop a tractable equilibrium model with Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) preferences that can overcome both challenges. The key insight is that the

  20. Steps and Pips in the History of the Cumulative Recorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lattal, Kennon A.

    2004-01-01

    From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This…

  1. The effects of cumulative practice on mathematics problem solving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayfield, Kristin H; Chase, Philip N

    2002-01-01

    This study compared three different methods of teaching five basic algebra rules to college students. All methods used the same procedures to teach the rules and included four 50-question review sessions interspersed among the training of the individual rules. The differences among methods involved the kinds of practice provided during the four review sessions. Participants who received cumulative practice answered 50 questions covering a mix of the rules learned prior to each review session. Participants who received a simple review answered 50 questions on one previously trained rule. Participants who received extra practice answered 50 extra questions on the rule they had just learned. Tests administered after each review included new questions for applying each rule (application items) and problems that required novel combinations of the rules (problem-solving items). On the final test, the cumulative group outscored the other groups on application and problem-solving items. In addition, the cumulative group solved the problem-solving items significantly faster than the other groups. These results suggest that cumulative practice of component skills is an effective method of training problem solving.

  2. Anti-irritants II: Efficacy against cumulative irritation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Flemming; Hedegaard, Kathryn; Petersen, Thomas Kongstad

    2006-01-01

    window of opportunity in which to demonstrate efficacy. Therefore, the effect of AI was studied in a cumulative irritation model by inducing irritant dermatitis with 10 min daily exposures for 5+4 days (no irritation on weekend) to 1% sodium lauryl sulfate on the right and 20% nonanoic acid on the left...

  3. Cumulative Beam Breakup with Time-Dependent Parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Delayen, J R

    2004-01-01

    A general analytical formalism developed recently for cumulative beam breakup (BBU) in linear accelerators with arbitrary beam current profile and misalignments [1] is extended to include time-dependent parameters such as energy chirp or rf focusing in order to reduce BBU-induced instabilities and emittance growth. Analytical results are presented and applied to practical accelerator configurations.

  4. On the mechanism of hadron cumulative production on nucleus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efremov, A.V.

    1976-01-01

    A mechanism of cumulative production of hadrons on nucleus is proposed which is similar to that of high perpendicular hadron production. The cross section obtained describes the main qualitative features of such prosesses, e.g., initial energy dependence atomic number behaviour, dependence on the rest mass of the produced particle and its production angle

  5. Hyperscaling breakdown and Ising spin glasses: The Binder cumulant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundow, P. H.; Campbell, I. A.

    2018-02-01

    Among the Renormalization Group Theory scaling rules relating critical exponents, there are hyperscaling rules involving the dimension of the system. It is well known that in Ising models hyperscaling breaks down above the upper critical dimension. It was shown by Schwartz (1991) that the standard Josephson hyperscaling rule can also break down in Ising systems with quenched random interactions. A related Renormalization Group Theory hyperscaling rule links the critical exponents for the normalized Binder cumulant and the correlation length in the thermodynamic limit. An appropriate scaling approach for analyzing measurements from criticality to infinite temperature is first outlined. Numerical data on the scaling of the normalized correlation length and the normalized Binder cumulant are shown for the canonical Ising ferromagnet model in dimension three where hyperscaling holds, for the Ising ferromagnet in dimension five (so above the upper critical dimension) where hyperscaling breaks down, and then for Ising spin glass models in dimension three where the quenched interactions are random. For the Ising spin glasses there is a breakdown of the normalized Binder cumulant hyperscaling relation in the thermodynamic limit regime, with a return to size independent Binder cumulant values in the finite-size scaling regime around the critical region.

  6. How to manage the cumulative flood safety of catchment dams ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dam safety is a significant issue being taken seriously worldwide. However, in Australia, although much attention is being devoted to the medium- to large-scale dams, minimal attention is being paid to the serious potential problems associated with smaller dams, particularly the potential cumulative safety threats they pose ...

  7. Cumulative Beam Breakup due to Resistive-Wall Wake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, J.-M.

    2004-01-01

    The cumulative beam breakup problem excited by the resistive-wall wake is formulated. An approximate analytic method of finding the asymptotic behavior for the transverse bunch displacement is developed and solved. Comparison between the asymptotic analytical expression and the direct numerical solution is presented. Good agreement is found. The criterion of using the asymptotic analytical expression is discussed

  8. Analysis of sensory ratings data with cumulative link models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen; Brockhoff, Per B.

    2013-01-01

    Examples of categorical rating scales include discrete preference, liking and hedonic rating scales. Data obtained on these scales are often analyzed with normal linear regression methods or with omnibus Pearson chi2 tests. In this paper we propose to use cumulative link models that allow for reg...

  9. Tests of Cumulative Prospect Theory with graphical displays of probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Birnbaum

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research reported evidence that contradicts cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic. The same body of research also violates two editing principles of original prospect theory: cancellation (the principle that people delete any attribute that is the same in both alternatives before deciding between them and combination (the principle that people combine branches leading to the same consequence by adding their probabilities. This study was designed to replicate previous results and to test whether the violations of cumulative prospect theory might be eliminated or reduced by using formats for presentation of risky gambles in which cancellation and combination could be facilitated visually. Contrary to the idea that decision behavior contradicting cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic would be altered by use of these formats, however, data with two new graphical formats as well as fresh replication data continued to show the patterns of evidence that violate cumulative prospect theory, the priority heuristic, and the editing principles of combination and cancellation. Systematic violations of restricted branch independence also contradicted predictions of ``stripped'' prospect theory (subjectively weighted additive utility without the editing rules.

  10. Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

    2018-06-01

    Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nilsson, H.; Rieskamp, J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2011-01-01

    Cumulative prospect theory (CPT Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) has provided one of the most influential accounts of how people make decisions under risk. CPT is a formal model with parameters that quantify psychological processes such as loss aversion, subjective values of gains and losses, and

  12. An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory for Decision under Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Chateauneuf, A.

    1999-01-01

    Cumulative prospect theory was introduced by Tversky and Kahneman so as to combine the empirical realism of their original prospect theory with the theoretical advantages of Quiggin's rank-dependent utility. Preference axiomatizations were provided in several papers. All those axiomatizations,

  13. Cumulative assessment: does it improve students’ knowledge acquisition and retention?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cecilio Fernandes, Dario; Nagtegaal, Manouk; Noordzij, Gera; Tio, Rene

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Assessment for learning means changing students’ behaviour regarding their learning. Cumulative assessment has been shown to increase students’ self-study time and spread their study time throughout a course. However, there was no difference regarding students’ knowledge at the end of

  14. Heat Stress

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Publications and Products Programs Contact NIOSH NIOSH HEAT STRESS Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir OSHA-NIOSH ... hot environments may be at risk of heat stress. Exposure to extreme heat can result in occupational ...

  15. The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foley, Melissa M., E-mail: mfoley@usgs.gov [U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, 400 Natural Bridges, Dr., Santa Cruz, CA 95060 (United States); Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 99 Pacific St., Monterey, CA 93940 (United States); Mease, Lindley A., E-mail: lamease@stanford.edu [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Martone, Rebecca G., E-mail: rmartone@stanford.edu [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 99 Pacific St., Monterey, CA 93940 (United States); Prahler, Erin E. [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Morrison, Tiffany H., E-mail: tiffany.morrison@jcu.edu.au [ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811 (Australia); Murray, Cathryn Clarke, E-mail: cmurray@pices.int [WWF-Canada, 409 Granville Street, Suite 1588, Vancouver, BC V6C 1T2 (Canada); Wojcik, Deborah, E-mail: deb.wojcik@duke.edu [Nicholas School for the Environment, Duke University, 9 Circuit Dr., Durham, NC 27708 (United States)

    2017-01-15

    The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

  16. The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Prahler, Erin E.; Morrison, Tiffany H.; Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Wojcik, Deborah

    2017-01-01

    The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

  17. The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A; Martone, Rebecca G; Prahler, Erin E; Morrison, Tiffany H; Clarke Murray, Cathryn; Wojcik, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

  18. Medical Students' Empathy for Vulnerable Groups: Results From a Survey and Reflective Writing Assignment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellbery, Caroline; Saunders, Pamela A; Kureshi, Sarah; Visconti, Adam

    2017-12-01

    As medical education curricula increasingly acknowledge the contributions of the social determinants of health to individual health, new methods of engaging students in the care of vulnerable groups are needed. Empathy is one way to connect students with patients, but little is known about how to nurture students' empathy on behalf of populations. This study examined the relationship between individual and social empathy as groundwork for cultivating students' empathy for vulnerable groups. In 2014-2015, first-year medical students completed the Social Empathy Index at the start and end of a two-semester population health course, and they completed a reflective writing assignment exploring the challenges of caring for vulnerable patients. Pre- and posttest mean survey scores were compared, and reflective writing assignments were analyzed for themes concerning social empathy. Data from 130 students were analyzed. Scores for the contextual understanding of systemic barriers domain increased significantly. There was a trend toward increased cumulative social empathy scores that did not reach statistical significance. Students' essays revealed three themes relating to individual empathy as the foundation for social empathy; civic and moral obligations; and the role of institutional practices in caring for vulnerable groups. This study extends understanding of empathy beyond care for the individual to include care for vulnerable groups. Thus, social empathy may function as a valuable concept in developing curricula to support students' commitment to care for the underserved. Educators first need to address the many barriers students cited that impede both individual and social empathy.

  19. Dynamics of immune system vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stromberg, Sean P.

    The adaptive immune system can be viewed as a complex system, which adapts, over time, to reflect the history of infections experienced by the organism. Understanding its operation requires viewing it in terms of tradeoffs under constraints and evolutionary history. It typically displays "robust, yet fragile" behavior, meaning common tasks are robust to small changes but novel threats or changes in environment can have dire consequences. In this dissertation we use mechanistic models to study several biological processes: the immune response, the homeostasis of cells in the lymphatic system, and the process that normally prevents autoreactive cells from entering the lymphatic system. Using these models we then study the effects of these processes interacting. We show that the mechanisms that regulate the numbers of cells in the immune system, in conjunction with the immune response, can act to suppress autoreactive cells from proliferating, thus showing quantitatively how pathogenic infections can suppress autoimmune disease. We also show that over long periods of time this same effect can thin the repertoire of cells that defend against novel threats, leading to an age correlated vulnerability. This vulnerability is shown to be a consequence of system dynamics, not due to degradation of immune system components with age. Finally, modeling a specific tolerance mechanism that normally prevents autoimmune disease, in conjunction with models of the immune response and homeostasis we look at the consequences of the immune system mistakenly incorporating pathogenic molecules into its tolerizing mechanisms. The signature of this dynamic matches closely that of the dengue virus system.

  20. Vulnerable to HIV / AIDS. Migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, I

    1998-01-01

    This special report discusses the impact of globalization, patterns of migration in Southeast Asia, gender issues in migration, the links between migration and HIV/AIDS, and spatial mobility and social networks. Migrants are particularly marginalized in countries that blame migrants for transmission of infectious and communicable diseases and other social ills. Effective control of HIV/AIDS among migrant and native populations requires a multisectoral approach. Programs should critically review the privatization of health care services and challenge economic models that polarize the rich and the poor, men and women, North and South, and migrant and native. Programs should recognize the equality between locals and migrants in receipt of health services. Countermeasures should have input from migrants in order to reduce the conditions that increase vulnerability to HIV/AIDS. Gender-oriented research is needed to understand women's role in migration. Rapid assessment has obscured the human dimension of migrants' vulnerability to HIV. Condom promotion is not enough. Migration is a major consequence of globalization, which holds the promise, real or imagined, of prosperity for all. Mass migration can be fueled by explosive regional developments. In Southeast Asia, migration has been part of the process of economic development. The potential to emigrate increases with greater per capita income. "Tiger" economies have been labor importers. Safe sex is not practiced in many Asian countries because risk is not taken seriously. Migrants tend to be used as economic tools, without consideration of social adjustment and sex behavior among singles.

  1. Vulnerability of network of networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havlin, S.; Kenett, D. Y.; Bashan, A.; Gao, J.; Stanley, H. E.

    2014-10-01

    Our dependence on networks - be they infrastructure, economic, social or others - leaves us prone to crises caused by the vulnerabilities of these networks. There is a great need to develop new methods to protect infrastructure networks and prevent cascade of failures (especially in cases of coupled networks). Terrorist attacks on transportation networks have traumatized modern societies. With a single blast, it has become possible to paralyze airline traffic, electric power supply, ground transportation or Internet communication. How, and at which cost can one restructure the network such that it will become more robust against malicious attacks? The gradual increase in attacks on the networks society depends on - Internet, mobile phone, transportation, air travel, banking, etc. - emphasize the need to develop new strategies to protect and defend these crucial networks of communication and infrastructure networks. One example is the threat of liquid explosives a few years ago, which completely shut down air travel for days, and has created extreme changes in regulations. Such threats and dangers warrant the need for new tools and strategies to defend critical infrastructure. In this paper we review recent advances in the theoretical understanding of the vulnerabilities of interdependent networks with and without spatial embedding, attack strategies and their affect on such networks of networks as well as recently developed strategies to optimize and repair failures caused by such attacks.

  2. Measurement of four-particle cumulants and symmetric cumulants with subevent methods in small collision systems with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Derendarz, Dominik; The ATLAS collaboration

    2018-01-01

    Measurements of symmetric cumulants SC(n,m)=⟨v2nv2m⟩−⟨v2n⟩⟨v2m⟩ for (n,m)=(2,3) and (2,4) and asymmetric cumulant AC(n) are presented in pp, p+Pb and peripheral Pb+Pb collisions at various collision energies, aiming to probe the long-range collective nature of multi-particle production in small systems. Results are obtained using the standard cumulant method, as well as the two-subevent and three-subevent cumulant methods. Results from the standard method are found to be strongly biased by non-flow correlations as indicated by strong sensitivity to the chosen event class definition. A systematic reduction of non-flow effects is observed when using the two-subevent method and the results become independent of event class definition when the three-subevent method is used. The measured SC(n,m) shows an anti-correlation between v2 and v3, and a positive correlation between v2 and v4. The magnitude of SC(n,m) is constant with Nch in pp collisions, but increases with Nch in p+Pb and Pb+Pb collisions. ...

  3. Heat stress and public health: a critical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovats, R Sari; Hajat, Shakoor

    2008-01-01

    Heat is an environmental and occupational hazard. The prevention of deaths in the community caused by extreme high temperatures (heat waves) is now an issue of public health concern. The risk of heat-related mortality increases with natural aging, but persons with particular social and/or physical vulnerability are also at risk. Important differences in vulnerability exist between populations, depending on climate, culture, infrastructure (housing), and other factors. Public health measures include health promotion and heat wave warning systems, but the effectiveness of acute measures in response to heat waves has not yet been formally evaluated. Climate change will increase the frequency and the intensity of heat waves, and a range of measures, including improvements to housing, management of chronic diseases, and institutional care of the elderly and the vulnerable, will need to be developed to reduce health impacts.

  4. An holistic view on aquifer vulnerability based on a distinction of different types of vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Luca, Domenico Antonio; Lasagna, Manuela; Franchino, Elisa

    2016-04-01

    AN HOLISTIC VIEW ON AQUIFER VULNERABILITY BASED ON A DISTINCTION OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF VULNERABILITY D.A. De Luca1 , M. Lasagna1, E. Franchino1 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin The concept of vulnerability is certainly useful in the field of groundwater protection. Nevertheless, within the scientific community, the definition of groundwater vulnerability is still debatable and not clear and conclusive. This is probably due to the fact that researchers often have very different experiences and education. A positive effect of it is a constant exchange of ideas, but there are also negative consequences and difficulties in deepening the issue. The different approaches are very important but they are usable only if the concept of vulnerability is standardized: thus, for the sake of clarity, a number of definitions should be laid down, based on the different types of vulnerability. These definitions can then provide the necessary holistic view for the aquifer vulnerability assessment. Nowadays vulnerability methods focus on the degree of vulnerability and the parameters needed for its evaluation, often neglecting to clarify what is the type of vulnerability the proposed methods are referred. The type of vulnerability, indeed, is both logically and hierarchically superior to the degree of vulnerability. More specifically the type of vulnerability represents the evaluation of the hydrogeological conditions considered in the vulnerability assessment and able to influence the way in which the contamination can take place. Currently the only distinction, based on of the type of vulnerability, is referred to intrinsic and specific vulnerability. Intrinsic vulnerability assesses the susceptibility of the receptor based on the natural properties of the land and subsurface; specific vulnerability also includes properties of the analyzed contaminant. This distinction is useful but not exhaustive. In addition to this, e.g., a distinction of vertical vulnerability

  5. Assessing the Security Vulnerabilities of Correctional Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, G.S.; Spencer, D.S.

    1998-10-27

    The National Institute of Justice has tasked their Satellite Facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps to identi~ the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion fi-om outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees, In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these initial assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.

  6. Drug abuse: vulnerability and transition to addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Moal, M

    2009-05-01

    Intrinsic vulnerability is central to the transition of recreational drug use to misuse. Several factors contribute to vulnerability, inherent or acquired, and they account for the huge individual differences observed concerning the propensity to enter in the addiction process. Some of the multifactional causes for a vulnerable phenotype will be examined: genetic factors, age and gender influences, various comorbidities and epidemiological observations. Stress-induced vulnerability will be particularly reviewed because it provides a good model for a pathophysiological research and for relating environmental events to biological consequences of drug vulnerability, namely through the striato-cortical dopamine system. Experimental studies are generally blind concerning these historical factors that contribute vulnerability and a critical evaluation of current animal models is needed. The transition of the last stage of the process, addiction, is conceptualized as a progression from homeostasis to allostasis and then, to pathology.

  7. Vulnerability and resilience: a critical nexus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotz, Mianna

    2016-02-01

    Not all forms of human fragility or vulnerability are unavoidable. Sometimes we knowingly and intentionally impose conditions of vulnerability on others; and sometimes we knowingly and intentionally enter into and assume conditions of vulnerability for ourselves (for example, when we decide to trust or forgive, enter into intimate relationships with others, become a parent, become a subject of medical or psychotherapeutic treatment, and the like). In this article, I propose a presently overlooked basis on which one might evaluate whether the imposition or assumption of vulnerability is acceptable, and on which one might ground a significant class of vulnerability-related obligations. Distinct from existing accounts of the importance of promoting autonomy in conditions of vulnerability, this article offers a preliminary exploration of the nature, role, and importance of resilience promotion, its relationship to autonomy promotion, and its prospects for improving human wellbeing in autonomy inhibiting conditions.

  8. Heat pumps

    CERN Document Server

    Macmichael, DBA

    1988-01-01

    A fully revised and extended account of the design, manufacture and use of heat pumps in both industrial and domestic applications. Topics covered include a detailed description of the various heat pump cycles, the components of a heat pump system - drive, compressor, heat exchangers etc., and the more practical considerations to be taken into account in their selection.

  9. Methods to Secure Databases Against Vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    for several languages such as C, C++, PHP, Java and Python [16]. MySQL will work well with very large databases. The documentation references...using Eclipse and connected to each database management system using Python and Java drivers provided by MySQL , MongoDB, and Datastax (for Cassandra...tiers in Python and Java . Problem MySQL MongoDB Cassandra 1. Injection a. Tautologies Vulnerable Vulnerable Not Vulnerable b. Illegal query

  10. A cumulant functional for static and dynamic correlation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollett, Joshua W.; Hosseini, Hessam; Menzies, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    A functional for the cumulant energy is introduced. The functional is composed of a pair-correction and static and dynamic correlation energy components. The pair-correction and static correlation energies are functionals of the natural orbitals and the occupancy transferred between near-degenerate orbital pairs, rather than the orbital occupancies themselves. The dynamic correlation energy is a functional of the statically correlated on-top two-electron density. The on-top density functional used in this study is the well-known Colle-Salvetti functional. Using the cc-pVTZ basis set, the functional effectively models the bond dissociation of H 2 , LiH, and N 2 with equilibrium bond lengths and dissociation energies comparable to those provided by multireference second-order perturbation theory. The performance of the cumulant functional is less impressive for HF and F 2 , mainly due to an underestimation of the dynamic correlation energy by the Colle-Salvetti functional.

  11. Fragmentation of tensor polarized deuterons into cumulative pions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afanas'ev, S.; Arkhipov, V.; Bondarev, V.

    1998-01-01

    The tensor analyzing power T 20 of the reaction d polarized + A → π - (0 0 ) + X has been measured in the fragmentation of 9 GeV tensor polarized deuterons into pions with momenta from 3.5 to 5.3 GeV/c on hydrogen, beryllium and carbon targets. This kinematic range corresponds to the region of cumulative hadron production with the cumulative variable x c from 1.08 to 1.76. The values of T 20 have been found to be small and consistent with positive values. This contradicts the predictions based on a direct mechanism assuming NN collision between a high momentum nucleon in the deuteron and a target nucleon (NN → NNπ)

  12. Experience of cumulative effects assessment in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piper Jake

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Cumulative effects assessment (CEA is a development of environmental impact assessment which attempts to take into account the wider picture of what impacts may affect the environment as a result of either multiple or linear projects, or development plans. CEA is seen as a further valuable tool in promoting sustainable development. The broader canvas upon which the assessment is made leads to a suite of issues such as complexity in methods and assessment of significance, the desirability of co-operation between developers and other parties, new ways of addressing mitigation and monitoring. After outlining the legislative position and the process of CEA, this paper looks at three cases studies in the UK where cumulative assessment has been carried out - the cases concern wind farms, major infrastructure and off-shore developments.

  13. Ecosystem assessment methods for cumulative effects at the regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunsaker, C.T.

    1989-01-01

    Environmental issues such as nonpoint-source pollution, acid rain, reduced biodiversity, land use change, and climate change have widespread ecological impacts and require an integrated assessment approach. Since 1978, the implementing regulations for the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have required assessment of potential cumulative environmental impacts. Current environmental issues have encouraged ecologists to improve their understanding of ecosystem process and function at several spatial scales. However, management activities usually occur at the local scale, and there is little consideration of the potential impacts to the environmental quality of a region. This paper proposes that regional ecological risk assessment provides a useful approach for assisting scientists in accomplishing the task of assessing cumulative impacts. Critical issues such as spatial heterogeneity, boundary definition, and data aggregation are discussed. Examples from an assessment of acidic deposition effects on fish in Adirondack lakes illustrate the importance of integrated data bases, associated modeling efforts, and boundary definition at the regional scale

  14. Ransomware - Threats Vulnerabilities And Recommendations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadeem Shah

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Attack methodologies transform with the transforming dynamics of technology. Consequently it becomes imperative that individuals and organization implement the highest levels of security within their devices and infrastructure for optimal protection against these rapidly evolving attacks. Ransomware is one such attack that never fails to surprise in terms of its ability to identify vulnerabilities and loopholes in technology. This paper discusses the categories of ransomware its common attack vectors and provides a threat landscape with the aim to highlight the true potential and destructive nature of such malware based attacks. In this paper we also present the most current ransomware attack that is still a potential threat and also provide recommendations and strategies for prevention and protection against these attacks. A novel solution is also discussed that could be further worked upon in the future by other researchers and vendors of security devices.

  15. Proliferation Vulnerability Red Team report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinton, J.P.; Barnard, R.W.; Bennett, D.E. [and others

    1996-10-01

    This report is the product of a four-month independent technical assessment of potential proliferation vulnerabilities associated with the plutonium disposition alternatives currently under review by DOE/MD. The scope of this MD-chartered/Sandia-led study was limited to technical considerations that could reduce proliferation resistance during various stages of the disposition processes below the Stored Weapon/Spent Fuel standards. Both overt and covert threats from host nation and unauthorized parties were considered. The results of this study will be integrated with complementary work by others into an overall Nonproliferation and Arms Control Assessment in support of a Secretarial Record of Decision later this year for disposition of surplus U.S. weapons plutonium.

  16. Polarization in high Psub(trans) and cumulative hadron production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efremov, A.V.

    1978-01-01

    The final hadron polarization in the high Psub(trans) processes is analyzed in the parton hard scattering picture. Scaling assumption allows a correct qualitative description to be given for the Psub(trans)-behaviour of polarization or escape angle behaviour in cumulative production. The energy scaling and weak dependence on the beam and target type is predicted. A method is proposed for measuring the polarization of hadron jets

  17. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

    2017-07-01

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

  18. Firm heterogeneity, Rules of Origin and Rules of Cumulation

    OpenAIRE

    Bombarda , Pamela; Gamberoni , Elisa

    2013-01-01

    We analyse the impact of relaxing rules of origin (ROOs) in a simple setting with heterogeneous firms that buy intermediate inputs from domestic and foreign sources. In particular, we consider the impact of switching from bilateral to diagonal cumulation when using preferences (instead of paying the MFN tariff) involving the respect of rules of origin. We find that relaxing the restrictiveness of the ROOs leads the least productive exporters to stop exporting. The empirical part confirms thes...

  19. Cumulant approach to dynamical correlation functions at finite temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tran Minhtien.

    1993-11-01

    A new theoretical approach, based on the introduction of cumulants, to calculate thermodynamic averages and dynamical correlation functions at finite temperatures is developed. The method is formulated in Liouville instead of Hilbert space and can be applied to operators which do not require to satisfy fermion or boson commutation relations. The application of the partitioning and projection methods for the dynamical correlation functions is discussed. The present method can be applied to weakly as well as to strongly correlated systems. (author). 9 refs

  20. Severe occupational hand eczema, job stress and cumulative sickness absence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böhm, D; Stock Gissendanner, S; Finkeldey, F; John, S M; Werfel, T; Diepgen, T L; Breuer, K

    2014-10-01

    Stress is known to activate or exacerbate dermatoses, but the relationships between chronic stress, job-related stress and sickness absence among occupational hand eczema (OHE) patients are inadequately understood. To see whether chronic stress or burnout symptoms were associated with cumulative sickness absence in patients with OHE and to determine which factors predicted sickness absence in a model including measures of job-related and chronic stress. We investigated correlations of these factors in employed adult inpatients with a history of sickness absence due to OHE in a retrospective cross-sectional explorative study, which assessed chronic stress (Trier Inventory for the Assessment of Chronic Stress), burnout (Shirom Melamed Burnout Measure), clinical symptom severity (Osnabrück Hand Eczema Severity Index), perceived symptom severity, demographic characteristics and cumulative days of sickness absence. The study group consisted of 122 patients. OHE symptoms were not more severe among patients experiencing greater stress and burnout. Women reported higher levels of chronic stress on some measures. Cumulative days of sickness absence correlated with individual dimensions of job-related stress and, in multiple regression analysis, with an overall measure of chronic stress. Chronic stress is an additional factor predicting cumulative sickness absence among severely affected OHE patients. Other relevant factors for this study sample included the 'cognitive weariness' subscale of the Shirom Melamed Burnout Measure and the physical component summary score of the SF-36, a measure of health-related life quality. Prevention and rehabilitation should take job stress into consideration in multidisciplinary treatment strategies for severely affected OHE patients. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Finite-volume cumulant expansion in QCD-colorless plasma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ladrem, M. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Physics Department, Algiers (Algeria); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M.A.A. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Taiz University in Turba, Physics Department, Taiz (Yemen); Alfull, Z.Z. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Cherif, S. [ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ghardaia University, Sciences and Technologies Department, Ghardaia (Algeria)

    2015-09-15

    Due to the finite-size effects, the localization of the phase transition in finite systems and the determination of its order, become an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the finite-volume transition point T{sub 0}(V) of the QCD deconfinement phase transition to a colorless QGP, we have developed a new approach using the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the L{sub mn}-method. The first six cumulants C{sub 1,2,3,4,5,6} with the corresponding under-normalized ratios (skewness Σ, kurtosis κ, pentosis Π{sub ±}, and hexosis H{sub 1,2,3}) and three unnormalized combinations of them, (O = σ{sup 2}κΣ{sup -1},U = σ{sup -2}Σ{sup -1},N = σ{sup 2}κ) are calculated and studied as functions of (T, V). A new approach, unifying in a clear and consistent way the definitions of cumulant ratios, is proposed.Anumerical FSS analysis of the obtained results has allowed us to locate accurately the finite-volume transition point. The extracted transition temperature value T{sub 0}(V) agrees with that expected T{sub 0}{sup N}(V) from the order parameter and the thermal susceptibility χ{sub T} (T, V), according to the standard procedure of localization to within about 2%. In addition to this, a very good correlation factor is obtained proving the validity of our cumulants method. The agreement of our results with those obtained by means of other models is remarkable. (orig.)

  2. Science and Societal Partnerships to Address Cumulative Impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Lundquist, Carolyn J.; Fisher, Karen T.; Le Heron, Richard; Lewis, Nick I.; Ellis, Joanne I.; Hewitt, Judi E.; Greenaway, Alison J.; Cartner, Katie J.; Burgess-Jones, Tracey C.; Schiel, David R.; Thrush, Simon F.

    2016-01-01

    Funding and priorities for ocean research are not separate from the underlying sociological, economic, and political landscapes that determine values attributed to ecological systems. Here we present a variation on science prioritization exercises, focussing on inter-disciplinary research questions with the objective of shifting broad scale management practices to better address cumulative impacts and multiple users. Marine scientists in New Zealand from a broad range of scientific and social...

  3. Cumulative prospect theory and mean variance analysis. A rigorous comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Hens, Thorsten; Mayer, Janos

    2012-01-01

    We compare asset allocations derived for cumulative prospect theory(CPT) based on two different methods: Maximizing CPT along the mean–variance efficient frontier and maximizing it without that restriction. We find that with normally distributed returns the difference is negligible. However, using standard asset allocation data of pension funds the difference is considerable. Moreover, with derivatives like call options the restriction to the mean-variance efficient frontier results in a siza...

  4. Signal anomaly detection using modified CUSUM [cumulative sum] method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenstern, V.; Upadhyaya, B.R.; Benedetti, M.

    1988-01-01

    An important aspect of detection of anomalies in signals is the identification of changes in signal behavior caused by noise, jumps, changes in band-width, sudden pulses and signal bias. A methodology is developed to identify, isolate and characterize these anomalies using a modification of the cumulative sum (CUSUM) approach. The new algorithm performs anomaly detection at three levels and is implemented on a general purpose computer. 7 refs., 4 figs

  5. ICMPv6 RA Flooding Vulnerability Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linas Jočys

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available ICMPv6 is the newest version of internet control message protocol, whose main purpose is to send error message indicating packet processing failure. It is know that ICMPv6 is technologically vulnerable. One of those vulnerabilities is the ICMPv6 RA flooding vulnerability, which can lead to systems in Local Area Network slow down or full stop. This paper will discuss Windows (XP, 7, 8.1 and Linux Ubuntu 14 operating systems resistance to RA flooding attack research and countermeasures to minimize this vulnerability.

  6. Vulnerability maps for Druzba crude oil pipeline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hladik, P.; Hosnedl, P.; Buresova, H.; Corbet, J.

    2012-01-01

    Maps of risk for individual environmental aspects within the protection zone of the Czech part of the Druzba crude oil pipeline (505.7 km) were developed based on a modified 'H and V index' method. Risk data were added into a GIS of the Druzba pipeline so that the system could be used as conceptual material in the field of environmental protection (a base for the new SCADA system). Considered environmental aspects were assessed in terms of their vulnerability. The criteria were defined as the vulnerability of the aquatic environment (surface waters and ground waters), the vulnerability of soil environment and the vulnerability of biotic components of the environment. (authors)

  7. Assessing vulnerability of urban African communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson Nyed, Patrik; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Herslund, Lise Byskov

    2014-01-01

    East African cities are in the process of assessing their vulnerabilities to climate change, but face difficulties in capturing the complexity of the various facets of vulnerability. This holistic approach, captures four different dimensions of vulnerability to flooding - Assets, Institutions......, Attitudes and the Physical environment, with Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, as a case city. The methodology is actively involving the expertise of the stakeholders, and uses GIS to analyze and compile the data. The final output is presented as a comprehensible map, delineating the varying vulnerability...

  8. Commercial Air Carrier Vulnerabilities to Information Operations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shelburn, Bryan H

    2002-01-01

    .... The increasing dependence of government and industry on information technology has created critical vulnerabilities that can be exploited by degrading or destroying the use of information systems...

  9. Mining Bug Databases for Unidentified Software Vulnerabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dumidu Wijayasekara; Milos Manic; Jason Wright; Miles McQueen

    2012-06-01

    Identifying software vulnerabilities is becoming more important as critical and sensitive systems increasingly rely on complex software systems. It has been suggested in previous work that some bugs are only identified as vulnerabilities long after the bug has been made public. These vulnerabilities are known as hidden impact vulnerabilities. This paper discusses the feasibility and necessity to mine common publicly available bug databases for vulnerabilities that are yet to be identified. We present bug database analysis of two well known and frequently used software packages, namely Linux kernel and MySQL. It is shown that for both Linux and MySQL, a significant portion of vulnerabilities that were discovered for the time period from January 2006 to April 2011 were hidden impact vulnerabilities. It is also shown that the percentage of hidden impact vulnerabilities has increased in the last two years, for both software packages. We then propose an improved hidden impact vulnerability identification methodology based on text mining bug databases, and conclude by discussing a few potential problems faced by such a classifier.

  10. Problems of describing the cumulative effect in relativistic nuclear physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldin, A.M.

    1979-01-01

    The problem of describing the cumulative effect i.e., the particle production on nuclei in the range kinematically forbidden for one-nucleon collisions, is studied. Discrimination of events containing cumulative particles fixes configurations in the wave function of a nucleus, when several nucleons are closely spaced and their quark-parton components are collectivized. For the cumulative processes under consideration large distances between quarks are very important. The fundamental facts and theoretical interpretation of the quantum field theory and of the condensed media theory in the relativistic nuclear physics are presented in brief. The collisions of the relativistic nuclei with low momentum transfers is considered in a fast moving coordinate system. The basic parameter determining this type of collisions is the energy of nucleon binding in nuclei. It has been shown that the short-range correlation model provides a good presentation of many characteristics of the multiple particle production and it may be regarded as an approximate universal property of hadron interactions

  11. Dynamic prediction of cumulative incidence functions by direct binomial regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grand, Mia K; de Witte, Theo J M; Putter, Hein

    2018-03-25

    In recent years there have been a series of advances in the field of dynamic prediction. Among those is the development of methods for dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function in a competing risk setting. These models enable the predictions to be updated as time progresses and more information becomes available, for example when a patient comes back for a follow-up visit after completing a year of treatment, the risk of death, and adverse events may have changed since treatment initiation. One approach to model the cumulative incidence function in competing risks is by direct binomial regression, where right censoring of the event times is handled by inverse probability of censoring weights. We extend the approach by combining it with landmarking to enable dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function. The proposed models are very flexible, as they allow the covariates to have complex time-varying effects, and we illustrate how to investigate possible time-varying structures using Wald tests. The models are fitted using generalized estimating equations. The method is applied to bone marrow transplant data and the performance is investigated in a simulation study. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  12. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret M. MacDonell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

  13. Preference, resistance to change, and the cumulative decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Randolph C

    2018-01-01

    According to behavioral momentum theory (Nevin & Grace, 2000a), preference in concurrent chains and resistance to change in multiple schedules are independent measures of a common construct representing reinforcement history. Here I review the original studies on preference and resistance to change in which reinforcement variables were manipulated parametrically, conducted by Nevin, Grace and colleagues between 1997 and 2002, as well as more recent research. The cumulative decision model proposed by Grace and colleagues for concurrent chains is shown to provide a good account of both preference and resistance to change, and is able to predict the increased sensitivity to reinforcer rate and magnitude observed with constant-duration components. Residuals from fits of the cumulative decision model to preference and resistance to change data were positively correlated, supporting the prediction of behavioral momentum theory. Although some questions remain, the learning process assumed by the cumulative decision model, in which outcomes are compared against a criterion that represents the average outcome value in the current context, may provide a plausible model for the acquisition of differential resistance to change. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  14. Stakeholder attitudes towards cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeke, Wim; Van Loo, Ellen J; Vanhonacker, Filiep; Delcour, Ilse; Spanoghe, Pieter; van Klaveren, Jacob D

    2015-05-01

    This study evaluates the attitudes and perspectives of different stakeholder groups (agricultural producers, pesticide manufacturers, trading companies, retailers, regulators, food safety authorities, scientists and NGOs) towards the concepts of cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides by means of qualitative in-depth interviews (n = 15) and a quantitative stakeholder survey (n = 65). The stakeholders involved generally agreed that the use of chemical pesticides is needed, primarily for meeting the need of feeding the growing world population, while clearly acknowledging the problematic nature of human exposure to pesticide residues. Current monitoring was generally perceived to be adequate, but the timeliness and consistency of monitoring practices across countries were questioned. The concept of cumulative exposure assessment was better understood by stakeholders than the concept of aggregate exposure assessment. Identified pitfalls were data availability, data limitations, sources and ways of dealing with uncertainties, as well as information and training needs. Regulators and food safety authorities were perceived as the stakeholder groups for whom cumulative and aggregate pesticide exposure assessment methods and tools would be most useful and acceptable. Insights obtained from this exploratory study have been integrated in the development of targeted and stakeholder-tailored dissemination and training programmes that were implemented within the EU-FP7 project ACROPOLIS. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The vulnerability of organic matter in Swiss forest soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Domínguez, Beatriz; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Studer, Mirjam S.; Hagedorn, Frank; Wacker, Lukas; Haghipour, Negar; Zimmermann, Stephan; Walthert, Lorenz; Abiven, Samuel; McIntyre, Cameron

    2017-04-01

    Soils contain more carbon than atmosphere and terrestrial vegetation combined [1], and thus are key players in the carbon cycle. With climate change, the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool is vulnerable to loss through increased CO2 emissions, which in turn can amplify changes with this carbon feedback [2]. The objective of this study is to investigate the variation of indicators of SOC vulnerability (e.g. SOC mineralisation, turnover time, bulk soil and mineralised 14C signatures) and to evaluate climate, soil and terrain variables as primary drivers. To choose the study locations we used a statistics-based approach to select a balanced combination of 54 forest sites with de-correlated drivers of SOC vulnerability (i.e. proxies for soil temperature and moisture, pH, % clay, slope gradient and orientation). Sites were selected from the forest soil database of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), which in May 2014, contained data from 1,050 soil profiles spread across Switzerland. We re-sampled soils at the 54 locations during summer 2014. With these samples we run a standardized laboratory soil incubation (i.e. 25°C; soils moisture -20kPa; sieved to ≤ 2 mm; 40 g equivalent dry mass; adjusted to 0.8 g cm-3 bulk density) and measured SOC mineralisation on days 4, 13, 30, 63, 121 and 181 by trapping the CO2 evolved from soils in sodium hydroxide traps [3]. Additionally, we measured the 14C signature of the carbon trapped during last stage of the incubation, and compare it to the 14C signature of the bulk soil. Based on the cumulative SOC mineralised, we found that despite the well-studied relationship between climate and SOC dynamics [4], temperature did not emerge as a predictor of SOC vulnerability. In parallel, moisture only had a minor role, with soils from drier sites being the most vulnerable. This indicates a possible limitation of heterotrophic activity due to water shortage. On the other hand, soil pH raised as the driver

  16. Experimental assessment of cumulative temperature and UV-B radiation effects on Mediterranean plankton metabolism

    KAUST Repository

    Garcia-Corral, Lara S.

    2015-07-07

    The Mediterranean Sea is a vulnerable region for climate change, warming at higher rates compare to the global ocean. Warming leads to increased stratification of the water column and enhanced the oligotrophic nature of the Mediterranean Sea. The oligotrophic waters are already highly transparent, however, exposure of Mediterranean plankton to ultraviolet radiation (UV-B and UV-A) may increase further if the waters become more oligotrophic, thereby, allowing a deeper UV radiation penetration and likely enhancing impacts to biota. Here we experimentally elucidate the cumulative effects of warming and natural UV-B radiation on the net community production (NCP) of plankton communities. We conducted five experiments at monthly intervals, from June to October 2013, and evaluated the responses of NCP to ambient UV-B radiation and warming (+3°C), alone and in combination, in a coastal area of the northwest Mediterranean Sea. UV-B radiation and warming lead to reduced NCP and resulted in a heterotrophic (NCP < 0) metabolic balance. Both UV-B radiation and temperature, showed a significant individual effect in NCP across treatments and time. However, their joint effect showed to be synergistic as the interaction between them (UV × Temp) was statistically significant in most of the experiments performed. Our results showed that both drivers, would affect the gas exchange of CO2−O2 from and to the atmosphere and the role of plankton communities in the Mediterranean carbon cycle.

  17. Experimental assessment of cumulative temperature and UV-B radiation effects on Mediterranean plankton metabolism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lara S. eGarcia-Corral

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean Sea is a vulnerable region for climate change, warming at higher rates compare to the global ocean. Warming leads to increased stratification of the water column and enhanced the oligotrophic nature of the Mediterranean Sea. The oligotrophic waters are already highly transparent, however, exposure of Mediterranean plankton to ultraviolet radiation (UV-B and UV-A may increase further if the waters become more oligotrophic, thereby, allowing a deeper UV radiation penetration and likely enhancing impacts to biota.Here we experimentally elucidate the cumulative effects of warming and natural UV-B radiation on the net community production (NCP of plankton communities. We conducted five experiments at monthly intervals, from June to October 2013, and evaluated the responses of NCP to ambient UV-B radiation and warming (+3ºC, alone and in combination, in a coastal area of the northwest Mediterranean Sea. UV-B radiation and warming lead to reduced net community production and resulted in a heterotrophic (NCP<0 metabolic balance. Both UV-B radiation and temperature, showed a significant individual effect in NCP across treatments and time. However, their joint effect showed to be synergistic as the interaction between them (UV x Temp was statistically significant in most of the experiments performed. Our results showed that both drivers, would affect the gas exchange of CO2-O2 from and to the atmosphere and the role of plankton communities in the Mediterranean carbon cycle

  18. Community Engaged Cumulative Risk Assessment of Exposure to Inorganic Well Water Contaminants, Crow Reservation, Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, John T.; Lefthand, Myra J.; Young, Sara L.; Kindness, Larry; Other Medicine, Roberta; Ford, Timothy E.; Dietrich, Eric; Parker, Albert E.; Hoover, Joseph H.; Camper, Anne K.

    2018-01-01

    An estimated 11 million people in the US have home wells with unsafe levels of hazardous metals and nitrate. The national scope of the health risk from consuming this water has not been assessed as home wells are largely unregulated and data on well water treatment and consumption are lacking. Here, we assessed health risks from consumption of contaminated well water on the Crow Reservation by conducting a community-engaged, cumulative risk assessment. Well water testing, surveys and interviews were used to collect data on contaminant concentrations, water treatment methods, well water consumption, and well and septic system protection and maintenance practices. Additive Hazard Index calculations show that the water in more than 39% of wells is unsafe due to uranium, manganese, nitrate, zinc and/or arsenic. Most families’ financial resources are limited, and 95% of participants do not employ water treatment technologies. Despite widespread high total dissolved solids, poor taste and odor, 80% of families consume their well water. Lack of environmental health literacy about well water safety, pre-existing health conditions and limited environmental enforcement also contribute to vulnerability. Ensuring access to safe drinking water and providing accompanying education are urgent public health priorities for Crow and other rural US families with low environmental health literacy and limited financial resources. PMID:29304032

  19. Vulnerability of cattle production to climate change on U.S. rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matt C. Reeves; Karen E. Bagne

    2016-01-01

    We examined multiple climate change effects on cattle production for U.S. rangelands to estimate relative change and identify sources of vulnerability among seven regions. Climate change effects to 2100 were projected from published models for four elements: forage quantity, vegetation type trajectory, heat stress, and forage variability. Departure of projections from...

  20. A vulnerability-centric requirements engineering framework : Analyzing security attacks, countermeasures, and requirements based on vulnerabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elahi, G.; Yu, E.; Zannone, N.

    2010-01-01

    Many security breaches occur because of exploitation of vulnerabilities within the system. Vulnerabilities are weaknesses in the requirements, design, and implementation, which attackers exploit to compromise the system. This paper proposes a methodological framework for security requirements

  1. Evolution of costly explicit memory and cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamaru, Mayuko

    2016-06-21

    Humans can acquire new information and modify it (cumulative culture) based on their learning and memory abilities, especially explicit memory, through the processes of encoding, consolidation, storage, and retrieval. Explicit memory is categorized into semantic and episodic memories. Animals have semantic memory, while episodic memory is unique to humans and essential for innovation and the evolution of culture. As both episodic and semantic memory are needed for innovation, the evolution of explicit memory influences the evolution of culture. However, previous theoretical studies have shown that environmental fluctuations influence the evolution of imitation (social learning) and innovation (individual learning) and assume that memory is not an evolutionary trait. If individuals can store and retrieve acquired information properly, they can modify it and innovate new information. Therefore, being able to store and retrieve information is essential from the perspective of cultural evolution. However, if both storage and retrieval were too costly, forgetting and relearning would have an advantage over storing and retrieving acquired information. In this study, using mathematical analysis and individual-based simulations, we investigate whether cumulative culture can promote the coevolution of costly memory and social and individual learning, assuming that cumulative culture improves the fitness of each individual. The conclusions are: (1) without cumulative culture, a social learning cost is essential for the evolution of storage-retrieval. Costly storage-retrieval can evolve with individual learning but costly social learning does not evolve. When low-cost social learning evolves, the repetition of forgetting and learning is favored more than the evolution of costly storage-retrieval, even though a cultural trait improves the fitness. (2) When cumulative culture exists and improves fitness, storage-retrieval can evolve with social and/or individual learning, which

  2. El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dugand Armando

    1944-03-01

    Full Text Available Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin duda alguna al A. Dugandii StandI. Por otra parte, Santiago Cortés (FI. Colomb. 206. 1898; ed, 2: 239. 1912 cita el Cumulá "de Anapoima y otros lugares del (rio Magdalena" diciendo que pertenece a las Leguminosas, pero la brevísima descripción que este autor hace de la madera "naranjada y notable por densidad, dureza y resistencia a la humedad", me induce a creer que se trata del mismo Cumula coleccionado recientemente en Tocaima, ya que esta población esta situada a pocos kilómetros de Anapoima. Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin

  3. Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopper, Thomas; Meixler, Marcia S

    2016-01-01

    Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time

  4. Drivers and barriers to heat stress resilience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatvani-Kovacs, Gertrud; Belusko, Martin; Skinner, Natalie; Pockett, John; Boland, John

    2016-11-15

    Heatwaves are the most dangerous natural hazard to health in Australia. The frequency and intensity of heatwaves will increase due to climate change and urban heat island effects in cities, aggravating the negative impacts of heatwaves. Two approaches exist to develop population heat stress resilience. Firstly, the most vulnerable social groups can be identified and public health services can prepare for the increased morbidity. Secondly, the population level of adaptation and the heat stress resistance of the built environment can be increased. The evaluation of these measures and their efficiencies has been fragmented across research disciplines. This study explored the relationships between the elements of heat stress resilience and their potential demographic and housing drivers and barriers. The responses of a representative online survey (N=393) about heat stress resilience at home and work from Adelaide, South Australia were analysed. The empirical findings demonstrate that heat stress resistant buildings increased adaptation capacity and decreased the number of health problems. Air-conditioning increased dependence upon it, limited passive adaptation and only people living in homes with whole-house air-conditioning had less health problems during heatwaves. Tenants and respondents with pre-existing health conditions were the most vulnerable, particularly as those with health conditions were not aware of their vulnerability. The introduction of an Energy Performance Certificate is proposed and discussed as an effective incentive to increase the heat stress resistance of and the general knowledge about the built environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Heat pumps

    CERN Document Server

    Brodowicz, Kazimierz; Wyszynski, M L; Wyszynski

    2013-01-01

    Heat pumps and related technology are in widespread use in industrial processes and installations. This book presents a unified, comprehensive and systematic treatment of the design and operation of both compression and sorption heat pumps. Heat pump thermodynamics, the choice of working fluid and the characteristics of low temperature heat sources and their application to heat pumps are covered in detail.Economic aspects are discussed and the extensive use of the exergy concept in evaluating performance of heat pumps is a unique feature of the book. The thermodynamic and chemical properties o

  6. The cumulative burden of surviving childhood cancer: an initial report from the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (SJLIFE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhakta, Nickhill; Liu, Qi; Ness, Kirsten K; Baassiri, Malek; Eissa, Hesham; Yeo, Frederick; Chemaitilly, Wassim; Ehrhardt, Matthew J; Bass, Johnnie; Bishop, Michael W; Shelton, Kyla; Lu, Lu; Huang, Sujuan; Li, Zhenghong; Caron, Eric; Lanctot, Jennifer; Howell, Carrie; Folse, Timothy; Joshi, Vijaya; Green, Daniel M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Armstrong, Gregory T; Krull, Kevin R; Brinkman, Tara M; Khan, Raja B; Srivastava, Deo K; Hudson, Melissa M; Yasui, Yutaka; Robison, Leslie L

    2017-12-09

    ·9-2·7, pgrade 1-5 CHCs at age 50 years was highest in survivors of CNS malignancies (24·2 [95% CI 20·9-27·5]) and lowest in survivors of germ cell tumours (14·0 [11·5-16·6]). Multivariable analyses showed that older age at diagnosis, treatment era, and higher doses of brain and chest radiation are significantly associated with a greater cumulative burden and severity of CHCs. The burden of CHCs in survivors of childhood cancer is substantial and highly variable. Our assessment of total cumulative burden in survivors of paediatric cancer, with detailed characterisation of long-term CHCs, provide data to better inform future clinical guidelines, research investigations, and health services planning for this vulnerable, medically complex population. The US National Cancer Institute, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. IT Security Vulnerability and Incident Response Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hafkamp, W.H.M.; Paulus, S.; Pohlman, N.; Reimer, H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper summarises the results of a Dutch PhD research project on IT security vulnerability and incident response management, which is supervised by the University of Twente in the Netherlands and which is currently in its final stage. Vulnerabilities are ‘failures or weaknesses in computer

  8. Vulnerability, Borderline Personality Disorders. Clinical and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Borderline personality disorder and vulnerability are difficult to assess and are rather elusive to define. A case study material is presented from a cognitive analytical model. An attempt of the dominant features of cognitive analytical therapy and discussion of vulnerability in relation to personality disorder is provided.

  9. Managing Risk, Reducing Vulnerability and Enhancing Productivity ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Managing Risk, Reducing Vulnerability and Enhancing Productivity under a Changing Climate. The countries of the Greater Horn of Africa are particularly vulnerable to drought, exacerbated by widespread poverty and dependence on rainfed agriculture. Even with normal rainfall, the region does not produce enough food to ...

  10. Reducing vulnerability among pastoralists in Northern Kenya

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    CCAA

    vulnerability among pastoralist communities in Mandera and Turkana in Northern Kenya, led by the Kenyan NGO ... to understand how people have experienced droughts and other ... norms and gender roles may make them more or less vulnerable, ... and see direct impacts on the resources they depend on for their.

  11. The politics of vulnerability and resilience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frerks, G.E.; Warner, J.F.; Weijs, B.

    2011-01-01

    Much conceptual confusion exists over the concepts of vulnerability and (social) resilience, reinforced by the different paradigms (the article identifies four) and disciplinary traditions underlying their use. While since the 1980s the social construction of "vulnerability" as a driver for disaster

  12. Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

  13. Predicting Vulnerability Risks Using Software Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roumani, Yaman

    2012-01-01

    Software vulnerabilities have been regarded as one of the key reasons for computer security breaches that have resulted in billions of dollars in losses per year (Telang and Wattal 2005). With the growth of the software industry and the Internet, the number of vulnerability attacks and the ease with which an attack can be made have increased. From…

  14. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: Agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-21

    Apr 21, 2016 ... Much of this biodiversity is highly vulnerable to climate change. ... an astonishing range of life forms found nowhere else on the planet. ... As well as improving information on climate change vulnerabilities, ... They also note negative effects on traditional knowledge, which is seen as losing its sacred power.

  15. Method of Pentest Synthesis and Vulnerability Detection

    OpenAIRE

    Hahanova Irina Vitalyevna

    2012-01-01

    The structural method for penetration test generation and vulnerability simulation for infrastructure of telecommunication hardwaresoftware information cybernetic systems (CS), focused to protect against unauthorized access the services defined in the system specification by means of penetrating through legal interfaces of component interaction, which have vulnerabilities, is proposed. A protection service infrastructure is created with cybersystem and maintains it during the life cycle, serv...

  16. Current diagnostic modalities for vulnerable plaque detection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.A. Schaar (Johannes); F. Mastik (Frits); E.S. Regar (Eveline); C.A. den Uil (Corstiaan); F.J.H. Gijsen (Frank); J.J. Wentzel (Jolanda); P.W.J.C. Serruys (Patrick); A.F.W. van der Steen (Ton)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractRupture of vulnerable plaques is the main cause of acute coronary syndrome and myocardial infarction. Identification of vulnerable plaques is therefore essential to enable the development of treatment modalities to stabilize such plaques. Several diagnostic methods are currently tested

  17. Vulnerabilities Classification for Safe Development on Android

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Luis D. M. Ferreira

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The global sales market is currently led by devices with the Android operating system. In 2015, more than 1 billion smartphones were sold, of which 81.5% were operated by the Android platform. In 2017, it is estimated that 267.78 billion applications will be downloaded from Google Play. According to Qian, 90% of applications are vulnerable, despite the recommendations of rules and standards for the safe software development. This study presents a classification of vulnerabilities, indicating the vulnerability, the safety aspect defined by the Brazilian Association of Technical Standards (Associação Brasileira de Normas Técnicas - ABNT norm NBR ISO/IEC 27002 which will be violated, which lines of code generate the vulnerability and what should be done to avoid it, and the threat agent used by each of them. This classification allows the identification of possible points of vulnerability, allowing the developer to correct the identified gaps.

  18. An electrical betweenness approach for vulnerability assessment of power grids considering the capacity of generators and load

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kai; Zhang, Bu-han; Zhang, Zhe; Yin, Xiang-gen; Wang, Bo

    2011-11-01

    Most existing research on the vulnerability of power grids based on complex networks ignores the electrical characteristics and the capacity of generators and load. In this paper, the electrical betweenness is defined by considering the maximal demand of load and the capacity of generators in power grids. The loss of load, which reflects the ability of power grids to provide sufficient power to customers, is introduced to measure the vulnerability together with the size of the largest cluster. The simulation results of the IEEE-118 bus system and the Central China Power Grid show that the cumulative distributions of node electrical betweenness follow a power-law and that the nodes with high electrical betweenness play critical roles in both topological structure and power transmission of power grids. The results prove that the model proposed in this paper is effective for analyzing the vulnerability of power grids.

  19. Predicting risk in space: Genetic markers for differential vulnerability to sleep restriction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goel, Namni; Dinges, David F.

    2012-08-01

    Several laboratories have found large, highly reliable individual differences in the magnitude of cognitive performance, fatigue and sleepiness, and sleep homeostatic vulnerability to acute total sleep deprivation and to chronic sleep restriction in healthy adults. Such individual differences in neurobehavioral performance are also observed in space flight as a result of sleep loss. The reasons for these stable phenotypic differential vulnerabilities are unknown: such differences are not yet accounted for by demographic factors, IQ or sleep need, and moreover, psychometric scales do not predict those individuals cognitively vulnerable to sleep loss. The stable, trait-like (phenotypic) inter-individual differences observed in response to sleep loss—with intraclass correlation coefficients accounting for 58-92% of the variance in neurobehavioral measures—point to an underlying genetic component. To this end, we utilized multi-day highly controlled laboratory studies to investigate the role of various common candidate gene variants—each independently—in relation to cumulative neurobehavioral and sleep homeostatic responses to sleep restriction. These data suggest that common genetic variations (polymorphisms) involved in sleep-wake, circadian, and cognitive regulation may serve as markers for prediction of inter-individual differences in sleep homeostatic and neurobehavioral vulnerability to sleep restriction in healthy adults. Identification of genetic predictors of differential vulnerability to sleep restriction—as determined from candidate gene studies—will help identify astronauts most in need of fatigue countermeasures in space flight and inform medical standards for obtaining adequate sleep in space. This review summarizes individual differences in neurobehavioral vulnerability to sleep deprivation and ongoing genetic efforts to identify markers of such differences.

  20. Combining demographic and genetic factors to assess population vulnerability in stream species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin L, Landguth; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Jones, Leslie W.; Waples, Robin S.; Whited, Diane; Lowe, Winsor H.; Lucotch, John; Neville, Helen; Luikart, Gordon

    2014-01-01

    Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss

  1. Heat transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saad, M.A.

    1985-01-01

    Heat transfer takes place between material systems as a result of a temperature difference. The transmission process involves energy conversions governed by the first and second laws of thermodynamics. The heat transfer proceeds from a high-temperature region to a low-temperature region, and because of the finite thermal potential, there is an increase in entropy. Thermodynamics, however, is concerned with equilibrium states, which includes thermal equilibrium, irrespective of the time necessary to attain these equilibrium states. But heat transfer is a result of thermal nonequilibrium conditions, therefore, the laws of thermodynamics alone cannot describe completely the heat transfer process. In practice, most engineering problems are concerned with the rate of heat transfer rather than the quantity of heat being transferred. Resort then is directed to the particular laws governing the transfer of heat. There are three distinct modes of heat transfer: conduction, convection, and radiation. Although these modes are discussed separately, all three types may occur simultaneously

  2. Mismatch or cumulative stress : Toward an integrated hypothesis of programming effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nederhof, Esther; Schmidt, Mathias V.

    2012-01-01

    This paper integrates the cumulative stress hypothesis with the mismatch hypothesis, taking into account individual differences in sensitivity to programming. According to the cumulative stress hypothesis, individuals are more likely to suffer from disease as adversity accumulates. According to the

  3. Science and societal partnerships to address cumulative impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolyn J Lundquist

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Funding and priorities for ocean research are not separate from the underlying sociological, economic, and political landscapes that determine values attributed to ecological systems. Here we present a variation on science prioritisation exercises, focussing on inter-disciplinary research questions with the objective of shifting broad scale management practices to better address cumulative impacts and multiple users. Marine scientists in New Zealand from a broad range of scientific and social-scientific backgrounds ranked 48 statements of research priorities. At a follow up workshop, participants discussed five over-arching themes based on survey results. These themes were used to develop mechanisms to increase the relevance and efficiency of scientific research while acknowledging socio-economic and political drivers of research agendas in New Zealand’s ocean ecosystems. Overarching messages included the need to: 1 determine the conditions under which ‘surprises’ (sudden and substantive undesirable changes are likely to occur and the socio-ecological implications of such changes; 2 develop methodologies to reveal the complex and cumulative effects of change in marine systems, and their implications for resource use, stewardship, and restoration; 3 assess potential solutions to management issues that balance long-term and short-term benefits and encompass societal engagement in decision-making; 4 establish effective and appropriately resourced institutional networks to foster collaborative, solution-focused marine science; and 5 establish cross-disciplinary dialogues to translate diverse scientific and social-scientific knowledge into innovative regulatory, social and economic practice. In the face of multiple uses and cumulative stressors, ocean management frameworks must be adapted to build a collaborative framework across science, governance and society that can help stakeholders navigate uncertainties and socio-ecological surprises.

  4. Cumulative risk hypothesis: Predicting and preventing child maltreatment recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, David; Åsberg, Kia; Peer, Samuel; Prince, Gwendolyn

    2016-08-01

    Although Child Protective Services (CPS) and other child welfare agencies aim to prevent further maltreatment in cases of child abuse and neglect, recidivism is common. Having a better understanding of recidivism predictors could aid in preventing additional instances of maltreatment. A previous study identified two CPS interventions that predicted recidivism: psychotherapy for the parent, which was related to a reduced risk of recidivism, and temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody, which was related to an increased recidivism risk. However, counter to expectations, this previous study did not identify any other specific risk factors related to maltreatment recidivism. For the current study, it was hypothesized that (a) cumulative risk (i.e., the total number of risk factors) would significantly predict maltreatment recidivism above and beyond intervention variables in a sample of CPS case files and that (b) therapy for the parent would be related to a reduced likelihood of recidivism. Because it was believed that the relation between temporary removal of a child from the parent's custody and maltreatment recidivism is explained by cumulative risk, the study also hypothesized that that the relation between temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody and recidivism would be mediated by cumulative risk. After performing a hierarchical logistic regression analysis, the first two hypotheses were supported, and an additional predictor, psychotherapy for the child, also was related to reduced chances of recidivism. However, Hypothesis 3 was not supported, as risk did not significantly mediate the relation between temporary removal and recidivism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Cumulative or delayed nephrotoxicity after cisplatin (DDP) treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinnarò, P; Ruggeri, E M; Carlini, P; Giovannelli, M; Cognetti, F

    1986-04-30

    The present retrospective study reports data regarding renal toxicity in 115 patients (63 males, 52 females; median age, 56 years) who received cumulative doses of cisplatin (DDP) greater than or equal to 200 mg/m2. DDP was administered alone or in combination at a dose of 50-70 mg/m2 in 91 patients, and at a dose of 100 mg/m2 in 22 patients. Two patients after progression of ovarian carcinoma treated with conventional doses of DDP received 4 and 2 courses, respectively, of high-dose DDP (40 mg/m2 for 5 days) in hypertonic saline. The median number of DDP courses was 6 (range 2-14), and the median cumulative dose was 350 mg/m2 (range, 200-1200). Serum creatinine and urea nitrogen were determined before initiating the treatment and again 13-16 days after each administration. The incidence of azotemia (creatinina levels that exceeded 1.5 mg/dl) was similar before (7.8%) and after (6.1%) DDP doses of 200 mg/m2. Azotemia appears to be related to the association of DDP with other potentially nephrotoxic antineoplastic drugs (methotrexate) more than to the dose per course of DDP. Of 59 patients followed for 2 months or more after discontinuing the DDP treatment, 3 (5.1%) presented creatinine values higher than 1.5 mg/dl. The data deny that the incidence of nephrotoxicity is higher in patients receiving higher cumulative doses of DDP and confirm that increases in serum creatinine levels may occur some time after discontinuation of the drug.

  6. The proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Frank; Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    We suggest an estimator for the proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks data. The key advantage of this model is that the regression parameters have the simple and useful odds ratio interpretation. The model has been considered by many authors, but it is rarely used...... in practice due to the lack of reliable estimation procedures. We suggest such procedures and show that their performance improve considerably on existing methods. We also suggest a goodness-of-fit test for the proportional odds assumption. We derive the large sample properties and provide estimators...

  7. Cumulative exposure to phthalates from phthalate-containing drug products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ennis, Zandra Nymand; Broe, Anne; Pottegård, Anton

    2018-01-01

    European regulatory limit of exposure ranging between 380-1710 mg/year throughout the study period. Lithium-products constituted the majority of dibutyl phthalate exposure. Diethyl phthalate exposure, mainly caused by erythromycin, theophylline and diclofenac products, did not exceed the EMA regulatory...... to quantify annual cumulated phthalate exposure from drug products among users of phthalate-containing oral medications in Denmark throughout the period of 2004-2016. METHODS: We conducted a Danish nationwide cohort study using The Danish National Prescription Registry and an internal database held...

  8. Lyapunov exponent of the random frequency oscillator: cumulant expansion approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anteneodo, C; Vallejos, R O

    2010-01-01

    We consider a one-dimensional harmonic oscillator with a random frequency, focusing on both the standard and the generalized Lyapunov exponents, λ and λ* respectively. We discuss the numerical difficulties that arise in the numerical calculation of λ* in the case of strong intermittency. When the frequency corresponds to a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, we compute analytically λ* by using a cumulant expansion including up to the fourth order. Connections with the problem of finding an analytical estimate for the largest Lyapunov exponent of a many-body system with smooth interactions are discussed.

  9. Exact probability distribution function for the volatility of cumulative production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadourian, Rubina; Klümper, Andreas

    2018-04-01

    In this paper we study the volatility and its probability distribution function for the cumulative production based on the experience curve hypothesis. This work presents a generalization of the study of volatility in Lafond et al. (2017), which addressed the effects of normally distributed noise in the production process. Due to its wide applicability in industrial and technological activities we present here the mathematical foundation for an arbitrary distribution function of the process, which we expect will pave the future research on forecasting of the production process.

  10. Numerical simulation of explosive magnetic cumulative generator EMG-720

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deryugin, Yu N; Zelenskij, D K; Kazakova, I F; Kargin, V I; Mironychev, P V; Pikar, A S; Popkov, N F; Ryaslov, E A; Ryzhatskova, E G [All-Russian Research Inst. of Experimental Physics, Sarov (Russian Federation)

    1997-12-31

    The paper discusses the methods and results of numerical simulations used in the development of a helical-coaxial explosive magnetic cumulative generator (EMG) with the stator up to 720 mm in diameter. In the process of designing, separate units were numerically modeled, as was the generator operation with a constant inductive-ohmic load. The 2-D processes of the armature acceleration by the explosion products were modeled as well as those of the formation of the sliding high-current contact between the armature and stator`s insulated turns. The problem of the armature integrity in the region of the detonation waves collision was numerically analyzed. 8 figs., 2 refs.

  11. Cumulative exergy losses associated with the production of lead metal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szargut, J [Technical Univ. of Silesia, Gliwice (PL). Inst. of Thermal-Engineering; Morris, D R [New Brunswick Univ., Fredericton, NB (Canada). Dept. of Chemical Engineering

    1990-08-01

    Cumulative exergy losses result from the irreversibility of the links of a technological network leading from raw materials and fuels extracted from nature to the product under consideration. The sum of these losses can be apportioned into partial exergy losses (associated with particular links of the technological network) or into constituent exergy losses (associated with constituent subprocesses of the network). The methods of calculation of the partial and constituent exergy losses are presented, taking into account the useful byproducts substituting the major products of other processes. Analyses of partial and constituent exergy losses are made for the technological network of lead metal production. (author).

  12. Heat exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daman, Ernest L.; McCallister, Robert A.

    1979-01-01

    A heat exchanger is provided having first and second fluid chambers for passing primary and secondary fluids. The chambers are spaced apart and have heat pipes extending from inside one chamber to inside the other chamber. A third chamber is provided for passing a purge fluid, and the heat pipe portion between the first and second chambers lies within the third chamber.

  13. Expansion formulae for characteristics of cumulative cost in finite horizon production models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ayhan, H.; Schlegel, S.

    2001-01-01

    We consider the expected value and the tail probability of cumulative shortage and holding cost (i.e. the probability that cumulative cost is more than a certain value) in finite horizon production models. An exact expression is provided for the expected value of the cumulative cost for general

  14. Stress Tests and Vulnerability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallner, A.; Lorenz, P.

    2012-01-01

    After the accident in Fukushima, nuclear safety as topic in anti-nuclear work has gained importance within the Joint Project countries. Therefore, nuclear safety and in particular the activities of the European stress tests were chosen to be the main focus of the Joint Project 2011/2012 as well as the common theme of the national projects. This brochure describes: A) Vulnerability Assessment A critical review of the EU Nuclear Stress Tests in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Ukraine is presented in chapter 1. The review details the main weaknesses identified within the stress tests. Important shortcomings not mentioned in the stress tests reports are also discussed. These evaluations do not claim to be exhaustive, but the findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of safety and risk of nuclear power plants in Europe. B) Transparency of the stress tests In chapter 2 the experience of the Joint Project NGOs concerning transparency of the stress tests is presented. The information is not meant to be an evaluation of the transparency of the stress tests in general – such an evaluation is not possible within the scope of this brochure. The evaluation aims to show activities concerning stress tests and how they were conceived by the JP NGOs. Some recommendations for improvement are given. C) Safety focus Within the main topic “nuclear safety” of the Joint Project 2011/2012 the NGOs of each JP country selected a special safety relevant topic, which is/was of particular interest in their country: Bulgaria: The short story of Belene NPP – The victory – Key points of the campaign against the nuclear power plant Romania: Risks of the CANDU reactor design Czech Republic: Results of the conference “Power Plant Load Testing: Safety Inspection or Propaganda?“ Slovakia: Safety deficits of the NPP Mochovce These safety relevant issues are discussed in separate sections within the brochure at hand. (author)

  15. Stress Tests and Vulnerability Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallner, A. [Austrian Institute of Ecology, Vienna (Austria); Lorenz, P. [ed.; Becker, O. [eds.; Weber, U. [Austrian Institute of Ecology, Vienna (Austria)

    2012-07-01

    After the accident in Fukushima, nuclear safety as topic in anti-nuclear work has gained importance within the Joint Project countries. Therefore, nuclear safety and in particular the activities of the European stress tests were chosen to be the main focus of the Joint Project 2011/2012 as well as the common theme of the national projects. This brochure describes: A) Vulnerability Assessment A critical review of the EU Nuclear Stress Tests in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Ukraine is presented in chapter 1. The review details the main weaknesses identified within the stress tests. Important shortcomings not mentioned in the stress tests reports are also discussed. These evaluations do not claim to be exhaustive, but the findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of safety and risk of nuclear power plants in Europe. B) Transparency of the stress tests In chapter 2 the experience of the Joint Project NGOs concerning transparency of the stress tests is presented. The information is not meant to be an evaluation of the transparency of the stress tests in general – such an evaluation is not possible within the scope of this brochure. The evaluation aims to show activities concerning stress tests and how they were conceived by the JP NGOs. Some recommendations for improvement are given. C) Safety focus Within the main topic “nuclear safety” of the Joint Project 2011/2012 the NGOs of each JP country selected a special safety relevant topic, which is/was of particular interest in their country: Bulgaria: The short story of Belene NPP – The victory – Key points of the campaign against the nuclear power plant Romania: Risks of the CANDU reactor design Czech Republic: Results of the conference “Power Plant Load Testing: Safety Inspection or Propaganda?“ Slovakia: Safety deficits of the NPP Mochovce These safety relevant issues are discussed in separate sections within the brochure at hand. (author)

  16. Vulnerability of intertropical littoral areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manighetti, Isabelle; De Wit, Rutger; Duvail, Stéphanie; Seyler, Patrick

    2017-10-01

    The coastal zone is of very high importance for human development and human wellbeing. Half of the global urban population lives in the coastal zone, where it has access to both continental and marine ecosystem services and to maritime transport. These urban populations coexist with rural and traditional coastal populations, some of which still possess good traditional ecological knowledge of the coastal ecosystems. Marine biodiversity and favourable environmental conditions sustain fisheries and aquaculture, represent a source of inspiration for humankind and provide numerous opportunities for recreation and tourism. In addition, coastal areas provide nursery functions for juvenile fish and invertebrates, which is important for the fish and crayfish stocks exploited offshore. Located at the interface between marine energy and continental processes, the coastal landscapes are dynamic environments. Nevertheless, the destruction of habitats and the increasing exploitation of the coastal zone represent serious threats to the ecosystems. Moreover, human land use and modifications in the watersheds have strong impacts on the coastal zone primarily by contributing to their pollution and nutrient over-enrichment. Damming and creation of reservoirs upstream also heavily modify the hydrology of the watersheds and often dramatically reduce the delivery of sediments to the coastal zone. In addition to these regional and local anthropogenic impacts, the coastal zone is vulnerable to global change among which sea level rise and climate change are particularly important drivers. Many coastal zones extend along giant faults and subduction zones, which makes them particularly exposed to earthquakes and tsunami hazards. Other forms of natural hazards are caused by hurricanes and cyclones that develop at sea and whose trajectories often hit the coastlines.

  17. Groundwater vulnerability mapping of Qatar aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baalousha, Husam Musa

    2016-12-01

    Qatar is one of the most arid countries in the world with limited water resources. With little rainfall and no surface water, groundwater is the only natural source of fresh water in the country. Whilst the country relies mainly on desalination of seawater to secure water supply, groundwater has extensively been used for irrigation over the last three decades, which caused adverse environmental impact. Vulnerability assessment is a widely used tool for groundwater protection and land-use management. Aquifers in Qatar are carbonate with lots of fractures, depressions and cavities. Karst aquifers are generally more vulnerable to contamination than other aquifers as any anthropogenic-sourced contaminant, especially above a highly fractured zone, can infiltrate quickly into the aquifer and spread over a wide area. The vulnerability assessment method presented in this study is based on two approaches: DRASTIC and EPIK, within the framework of Geographical Information System (GIS). Results of this study show that DRASTIC vulnerability method suits Qatar hydrogeological settings more than EPIK. The produced vulnerability map using DRASTIC shows coastal and karst areas have the highest vulnerability class. The southern part of the country is located in the low vulnerability class due to occurrence of shale formation within aquifer media, which averts downward movement of contaminants.

  18. Vulnerability, Health Agency and Capability to Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straehle, Christine

    2016-01-01

    One of the defining features of the capability approach (CA) to health, as developed in Venkatapuram's book Health Justice, is its aim to enable individual health agency. Furthermore, the CA to health hopes to provide a strong guideline for assessing the health-enabling content of social and political conditions. In this article, I employ the recent literature on the liberal concept of vulnerability to assess the CA. I distinguish two kinds of vulnerability. Considering circumstantial vulnerability, I argue that liberal accounts of vulnerability concerned with individual autonomy, align with the CA to health. Individuals should, as far as possible, be able to make health-enabling decisions about their lives, and their capability to do so should certainly not be hindered by public policy. The CA to health and a vulnerability-based analysis then work alongside to define moral responsibilities and designate those who hold them. Both approaches demand social policy to address circumstances that hinder individuals from taking health-enabling decisions. A background condition of vulnerability, on the other hand, even though it hampers the capability for health, does not warrant the strong moral claim proposed by the CA to health to define health as a meta-capability that should guide social policy. Nothing in our designing social policy could change the challenge to health agency when we deal with background conditions of vulnerability. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. A measure of vulnerability and damage tolerance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lind, Niels C.

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of the paper is to present probabilistic definitions of 'vulnerability' and 'damage tolerance'. A new measure of damage is also proposed. Disastrous failures, such as of the Titanic or the Chernobyl reactor, have revealed that some systems can be highly vulnerable. A seemingly insignificant damage can reduce such a system's resistance severely. Attempts to write design code requirements for damage tolerance or structural integrity have not been successful so far. One reason is that these ideas have not been defined with the necessary precision. The suggested definitions aim to be general, applicable to all engineered systems, and readily specializable to particular system types. Vulnerability is defined as the ratio of the failure probability of the damaged system to the failure probability of the undamaged system. It is argued that 'vulnerability' and 'damage tolerance' are complementary concepts. Damage tolerance is defined as the reciprocal of vulnerability. Vulnerability and damage tolerance both concern hypothetical future damage. A damage factor, applicable for the analysis of an existing structure in an assessed state of damage, is defined analogous to vulnerability. Application is illustrated by examples

  20. Heat pipe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Triggs, G.W.; Lightowlers, R.J.; Robinson, D.; Rice, G.

    1986-01-01

    A heat pipe for use in stabilising a specimen container for irradiation of specimens at substantially constant temperature within a liquid metal cooled fast reactor, comprises an evaporator section, a condenser section, an adiabatic section therebetween, and a gas reservoir, and contains a vapourisable substance such as sodium. The heat pipe further includes a three layer wick structure comprising an outer relatively fine mesh layer, a coarse intermediate layer and a fine mesh inner layer for promoting unimpeded return of condensate to the evaporation section of the heat pipe while enhancing heat transfer with the heat pipe wall and reducing entrainment of the condensate by the upwardly rising vapour. (author)

  1. Determining Vulnerability Importance in Environmental Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toro, Javier; Duarte, Oscar; Requena, Ignacio; Zamorano, Montserrat

    2012-01-01

    The concept of vulnerability has been used to describe the susceptibility of physical, biotic, and social systems to harm or hazard. In this sense, it is a tool that reduces the uncertainties of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) since it does not depend exclusively on the value assessments of the evaluator, but rather is based on the environmental state indicators of the site where the projects or activities are being carried out. The concept of vulnerability thus reduces the possibility that evaluators will subjectively interpret results, and be influenced by outside interests and pressures during projects. However, up until now, EIA has been hindered by a lack of effective methods. This research study analyzes the concept of vulnerability, defines Vulnerability Importance and proposes its inclusion in qualitative EIA methodology. The method used to quantify Vulnerability Importance is based on a set of environmental factors and indicators that provide a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. The results obtained in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method since there is a direct relation between this value and the environmental state of the departments analyzed. - Research Highlights: ► The concept of vulnerability could be considered defining Vulnerability Importance included in qualitative EIA methodology. ► The use of the concept of environmental vulnerability could reduce the subjectivity of qualitative methods of EIA. ► A method to quantify the Vulnerability Importance proposed provides a comprehensive overview of the environmental state. ► Results in Colombia highlight the usefulness and objectivity of this method.

  2. Cumulative hierarchies and computability over universes of sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domenico Cantone

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Various metamathematical investigations, beginning with Fraenkel’s historical proof of the independence of the axiom of choice, called for suitable definitions of hierarchical universes of sets. This led to the discovery of such important cumulative structures as the one singled out by von Neumann (generally taken as the universe of all sets and Godel’s universe of the so-called constructibles. Variants of those are exploited occasionally in studies concerning the foundations of analysis (according to Abraham Robinson’s approach, or concerning non-well-founded sets. We hence offer a systematic presentation of these many structures, partly motivated by their relevance and pervasiveness in mathematics. As we report, numerous properties of hierarchy-related notions such as rank, have been verified with the assistance of the ÆtnaNova proof-checker.Through SETL and Maple implementations of procedures which effectively handle the Ackermann’s hereditarily finite sets, we illustrate a particularly significant case among those in which the entities which form a universe of sets can be algorithmically constructed and manipulated; hereby, the fruitful bearing on pure mathematics of cumulative set hierarchies ramifies into the realms of theoretical computer science and algorithmics.

  3. Cumulative Effects Assessment: Linking Social, Ecological, and Governance Dimensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian Weber

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Setting social, economic, and ecological objectives is ultimately a process of social choice informed by science. In this special feature we provide a multidisciplinary framework for the use of cumulative effects assessment in land use planning. Forest ecosystems are facing considerable challenges driven by population growth and increasing demands for resources. In a suite of case studies that span the boreal forest of Western Canada to the interior Atlantic forest of Paraguay we show how transparent and defensible methods for scenario analysis can be applied in data-limited regions and how social dimensions of land use change can be incorporated in these methods, particularly in aboriginal communities that have lived in these ecosystems for generations. The case studies explore how scenario analysis can be used to evaluate various land use options and highlight specific challenges with identifying social and ecological responses, determining thresholds and targets for land use, and integrating local and traditional knowledge in land use planning. Given that land use planning is ultimately a value-laden and often politically charged process we also provide some perspective on various collective and expert-based processes for identifying cumulative impacts and thresholds. The need for good science to inform and be informed by culturally appropriate democratic processes calls for well-planned and multifaceted approaches both to achieve an informed understanding of both residents and governments of the interactive and additive changes caused by development, and to design action agendas to influence such change at the ecological and social level.

  4. Maternal distress and parenting in the context of cumulative disadvantage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arditti, Joyce; Burton, Linda; Neeves-Botelho, Sara

    2010-06-01

    This article presents an emergent conceptual model of the features and links between cumulative disadvantage, maternal distress, and parenting practices in low-income families in which parental incarceration has occurred. The model emerged from the integration of extant conceptual and empirical research with grounded theory analysis of longitudinal ethnographic data from Welfare, Children, and Families: A Three-City Study. Fourteen exemplar family cases were used in the analysis. Results indicated that mothers in these families experienced life in the context of cumulative disadvantage, reporting a cascade of difficulties characterized by neighborhood worries, provider concerns, bureaucratic difficulties, violent intimate relationships, and the inability to meet children's needs. Mothers, however, also had an intense desire to protect their children, and to make up for past mistakes. Although, in response to high levels of maternal distress and disadvantage, most mothers exhibited harsh discipline of their children, some mothers transformed their distress by advocating for their children under difficult circumstances. Women's use of harsh discipline and advocacy was not necessarily an "either/or" phenomenon as half of the mothers included in our analysis exhibited both harsh discipline and care/advocacy behaviors. Maternal distress characterized by substance use, while connected to harsh disciplinary behavior, did not preclude mothers engaging in positive parenting behaviors.

  5. Cumulative phase delay imaging for contrast-enhanced ultrasound tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demi, Libertario; Van Sloun, Ruud J G; Wijkstra, Hessel; Mischi, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    Standard dynamic-contrast enhanced ultrasound (DCE-US) imaging detects and estimates ultrasound-contrast-agent (UCA) concentration based on the amplitude of the nonlinear (harmonic) components generated during ultrasound (US) propagation through UCAs. However, harmonic components generation is not specific to UCAs, as it also occurs for US propagating through tissue. Moreover, nonlinear artifacts affect standard DCE-US imaging, causing contrast to tissue ratio reduction, and resulting in possible misclassification of tissue and misinterpretation of UCA concentration. Furthermore, no contrast-specific modality exists for DCE-US tomography; in particular speed-of-sound changes due to UCAs are well within those caused by different tissue types. Recently, a new marker for UCAs has been introduced. A cumulative phase delay (CPD) between the second harmonic and fundamental component is in fact observable for US propagating through UCAs, and is absent in tissue. In this paper, tomographic US images based on CPD are for the first time presented and compared to speed-of-sound US tomography. Results show the applicability of this marker for contrast specific US imaging, with cumulative phase delay imaging (CPDI) showing superior capabilities in detecting and localizing UCA, as compared to speed-of-sound US tomography. Cavities (filled with UCA) which were down to 1 mm in diameter were clearly detectable. Moreover, CPDI is free of the above mentioned nonlinear artifacts. These results open important possibilities to DCE-US tomography, with potential applications to breast imaging for cancer localization. (fast track communication)

  6. Cumulant expansions for measuring water exchange using diffusion MRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Lipeng; Nilsson, Markus; Lasič, Samo; Westin, Carl-Fredrik; Rathi, Yogesh

    2018-02-01

    The rate of water exchange across cell membranes is a parameter of biological interest and can be measured by diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI). In this work, we investigate a stochastic model for the diffusion-and-exchange of water molecules. This model provides a general solution for the temporal evolution of dMRI signal using any type of gradient waveform, thereby generalizing the signal expressions for the Kärger model. Moreover, we also derive a general nth order cumulant expansion of the dMRI signal accounting for water exchange, which has not been explored in earlier studies. Based on this analytical expression, we compute the cumulant expansion for dMRI signals for the special case of single diffusion encoding (SDE) and double diffusion encoding (DDE) sequences. Our results provide a theoretical guideline on optimizing experimental parameters for SDE and DDE sequences, respectively. Moreover, we show that DDE signals are more sensitive to water exchange at short-time scale but provide less attenuation at long-time scale than SDE signals. Our theoretical analysis is also validated using Monte Carlo simulations on synthetic structures.

  7. A Cumulant-based Analysis of Nonlinear Magnetospheric Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Jay R.; Wing, Simon

    2004-01-01

    Understanding magnetospheric dynamics and predicting future behavior of the magnetosphere is of great practical interest because it could potentially help to avert catastrophic loss of power and communications. In order to build good predictive models it is necessary to understand the most critical nonlinear dependencies among observed plasma and electromagnetic field variables in the coupled solar wind/magnetosphere system. In this work, we apply a cumulant-based information dynamical measure to characterize the nonlinear dynamics underlying the time evolution of the Dst and Kp geomagnetic indices, given solar wind magnetic field and plasma input. We examine the underlying dynamics of the system, the temporal statistical dependencies, the degree of nonlinearity, and the rate of information loss. We find a significant solar cycle dependence in the underlying dynamics of the system with greater nonlinearity for solar minimum. The cumulant-based approach also has the advantage that it is reliable even in the case of small data sets and therefore it is possible to avoid the assumption of stationarity, which allows for a measure of predictability even when the underlying system dynamics may change character. Evaluations of several leading Kp prediction models indicate that their performances are sub-optimal during active times. We discuss possible improvements of these models based on this nonparametric approach

  8. Strategy for an assessment of cumulative ecological impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, P.; Collins, J.; Nelsen, J.

    1995-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a strategy to conduct an assessment of the cumulative ecological impact of operations at the 300-square-mile Savannah River Site. This facility has over 400 identified waste units and contains several large watersheds. In addition to individual waste units, residual contamination must be evaluated in terms of its contribution to ecological risks at zonal and site-wide levels. DOE must be able to generate sufficient information to facilitate cleanup in the immediate future within the context of a site-wide ecological risk assessment that may not be completed for many years. The strategy superimposes a more global perspective on ecological assessments of individual waste units and provides strategic underpinnings for conducting individual screening-level and baseline risk assessments at the operable unit and zonal or watershed levels. It identifies ecological endpoints and risk assessment tools appropriate for each level of the risk assessment. In addition, it provides a clear mechanism for identifying clean sites through screening-level risk assessments and for elevating sites with residual contamination to the next level of assessment. Whereas screening-level and operable unit-level risk assessments relate directly to cleanup, zonal and site-wide assessments verity or confirm the overall effectiveness of remediation. The latter assessments must show, for example, whether multiple small areas with residual pesticide contamination that have minimal individual impact would pose a cumulative risk from bioaccumulation because they are within the habitat range of an ecological receptor

  9. Defining energy vulnerability in mobility. Measuring energy vulnerability in mobility. Acting against energy vulnerability in mobility. Discussing energy vulnerability in mobility. Task no. 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jouffe, Yves; Massot, Marie-Helene; Noble, Cyprien

    2015-01-01

    Extensive expansion of urban areas generates transportation needs and energy expenses for mobility. Households already impacted by fuel poverty also suffer from energy vulnerability in their mobility. This report was prepared in the framework of the study of fuel poverty in France in the light of several indicators from existing inquiries, databases and modeling tools. The report is organised in 4 parts dealing with: the definition of energy vulnerability in mobility, its measurement, the possible remedial actions, and the discussions about energy vulnerability in mobility through working group meetings, respectively

  10. Vulnerability of networks of interacting Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kocarev, L; Zlatanov, N; Trajanov, D

    2010-05-13

    The concept of vulnerability is introduced for a model of random, dynamical interactions on networks. In this model, known as the influence model, the nodes are arranged in an arbitrary network, while the evolution of the status at a node is according to an internal Markov chain, but with transition probabilities that depend not only on the current status of that node but also on the statuses of the neighbouring nodes. Vulnerability is treated analytically and numerically for several networks with different topological structures, as well as for two real networks--the network of infrastructures and the EU power grid--identifying the most vulnerable nodes of these networks.

  11. DOE contractor vulnerability analysis: DPA or MAIT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Six, D.E.; Nichols, D.H.

    1980-01-01

    Two vulnerability analysis techniques, Diversion Path Analysis (DPA) and Matrix Analysis of the Insider Threat (MAIT), were applied by EG and G Idaho, Inc. Safeguards and Security to the same item accountable SNM storage area at INEL. Technical and cost data for each methodology were collected and compared. A recommendation that MAIT be utilized for future vulnerability analyses of item accountable SNM storage and use areas operated by EG and G Idaho for DOE-ID resulted. Unclassified results of the two techniques and MAIT/DPA technical and cost comparisons will be presented which show that MAIT can be used for vulnerability analyses to comply with Department of Energy (DOE) requirements

  12. Nuclear material production cycle vulnerability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bott, T.F.

    1996-01-01

    This paper discusses a method for rapidly and systematically identifying vulnerable equipment in a nuclear material or similar production process and ranking that equipment according to its attractiveness to a malevolent attacker. A multistep approach was used in the analysis. First, the entire production cycle was modeled as a flow diagram. This flow diagram was analyzed using graph theoretical methods to identify processes in the production cycle and their locations. Models of processes that were judged to be particularly vulnerable based on the cycle analysis then were developed in greater detail to identify equipment in that process that is vulnerable to intentional damage

  13. Negative emotional reactivity as a marker of vulnerability in the development of borderline personality disorder symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepp, Stephanie D; Scott, Lori N; Jones, Neil P; Whalen, Diana J; Hipwell, Alison E

    2016-02-01

    Negative emotionality is a distinguishing feature of borderline personality disorder (BPD). However, this person-level characteristic has not been examined as a marker of vulnerability in the development of this disorder. The current study utilized a multimethod approach to examine the interplay between negative emotional reactivity and cumulative exposure to family adversity on the development of BPD symptoms across 3 years (ages 16-18) in a diverse, at-risk sample of adolescent girls (N = 113). A latent variable of negative emotional reactivity was created from multiple assessments at age 16: self-report, emotion ratings to stressors from ecological assessments across 1 week, and observer-rated negative affectivity during a mother-daughter conflict discussion task. Exposure to family adversity was measured cumulatively between ages 5 and 16 from annual assessments of family poverty, single parent household, and difficult life circumstances. The results from latent growth curve models demonstrated a significant interaction between negative emotional reactivity and family adversity, such that exposure to adversity strengthened the association between negative emotional reactivity and BPD symptoms. In addition, family adversity predicted increasing BPD symptoms during late adolescence. These findings highlight negative emotional reactivity as a marker of vulnerability that ultimately increases risk for the development of BPD symptoms.

  14. Negative emotional reactivity as a marker of vulnerability in the development of borderline personality disorder symptoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepp, Stephanie D.; Scott, Lori N.; Jones, Neil P.; Whalen, Diana J.; Hipwell, Alison E.

    2015-01-01

    Negative emotionality is a distinguishing feature of borderline personality disorder (BPD). However, this person-level characteristic has not been examined as a marker of vulnerability in the development of this disorder. The current study utilized a multi-method approach to examine the interplay between negative emotional reactivity and cumulative exposure to family adversity on the development of BPD symptoms across three years (ages 16–18) in a diverse, at-risk sample of adolescent girls (N=113). A latent variable of negative emotional reactivity was created from multiple assessments at age 16: (1) self-report, (2) emotion ratings to stressors from ecological assessments across one week, and (3) observer-rated negative affectivity during a mother-daughter conflict discussion task. Exposure to family adversity was measured cumulatively between ages 5 and 16 from annual assessments of family poverty, single parent household, and difficult life circumstances. Results from latent growth curve models demonstrated a significant interaction between negative emotional reactivity and family adversity, such that exposure to adversity strengthened the association between negative emotional reactivity and BPD symptoms. Additionally, family adversity predicted increasing BPD symptoms during late adolescence. These findings highlight negative emotional reactivity as a marker of vulnerability that ultimately increases risk for the development of BPD symptoms. PMID:25925083

  15. Transdisciplinary knowledge integration : cases from integrated assessment and vulnerability assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hinkel, J.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: climate change, integrated assessment, knowledge integration, transdisciplinary research, vulnerability, vulnerability assessment.
    This thesis explores how transdisciplinary knowledge integration can be facilitated in the context of integrated assessments and vulnerability

  16. Are older people a vulnerable group? Philosophical and bioethical perspectives on ageing and vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozzaro, Claudia; Boldt, Joachim; Schweda, Mark

    2018-05-01

    The elderly are often considered a vulnerable group in public and academic bioethical debates and regulations. In this paper, we examine and challenge this assumption and its ethical implications. We begin by systematically delineating the different concepts of vulnerability commonly used in bioethics, before then examining whether these concepts can be applied to old age. We argue that old age should not, in and of itself, be used as a marker of vulnerability, since ageing is a process that can develop in a variety of different ways and is not always associated with particular experiences of vulnerability. We, therefore, turn to more fundamental phenomenological considerations in order to reconstruct from a first person perspective the intricate interconnections between the experiences of ageing and vulnerability. According to this account, ageing and old age are phenomena in which the basic anthropological vulnerability of human beings can manifest itself in an increased likelihood of harm and exploitation. Thus, we plead for a combined model of vulnerability that helps to avoid problems related to the current concepts of vulnerability. We conclude first that old age as such is not a sufficient criterion for being categorized as vulnerable in applied ethics, and second that reflections on ageing can help to develop a better understanding of the central role of vulnerability in human existence and in applied ethics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

    2015-04-01

    vulnerability. Based on the projection models for the area, average temperature in Jordan is projected to increase between 1.2 and 1.6°C by 2050. These upward temperature trends are projected to continue beyond 2050. Projections for precipitation trends are projected to decrease by 16% by the year 2050. Evaporation is likely to increase due to higher temperatures. This is likely to increase the incidence of drought potential since precipitation is projected to decrease. It is concluded that the Overall vulnerability of agriculture to climate change in Jordan is high, where impacts such as drought and increased temperatures and decreased precipitation will be more pronounced. Major implications on rain fed agriculture are possible shorter growing season, increasing moisture and heat stress to field and horticultural crops and eventually low income and food insecurity. There were different impacts among studied communities, which is related to the: economic capability, local knowledge, physical infrastructure, institutional capacity, modern technology used, age group of farmers and diversification of their income.

  18. Psychotic-spectrum symptoms, cumulative adversity exposure and substance use among high-risk girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansing, Amy E; Plante, Wendy Y; Fennema-Notestine, Christine; Golshan, Shahrokh; Beck, Audrey N

    2018-02-01

    Psychotic-spectrum symptoms are linked to trauma, substance/alcohol use (SAU), criminality/violence and poor functional outcomes, supporting the need for early detection in vulnerable populations. To better understand high-risk girls' mental health, we assessed: (1) psychotic-spectrum symptoms; (2) cumulative trauma, adversity and loss exposures (C-TALE) and adversity-indicators (symptoms, maladaptive coping, stressor-reactivity); and SAU risk-factors; and (3) relationships among psychotic-spectrum symptoms, adversity-indicators and SAU risk-factors. We administered the Structured Clinical Interviews for Psychotic Spectrum, and Trauma and Loss Spectrum to 158 adolescent delinquent girls. Girls' psychotic-spectrum profiles were similar to previously reported adult psychotic patients and characterized by typical symptoms (hallucinations/delusions, reported largely SAU-independent), interpersonal sensitivity, schizoid traits and paranoia (over-interpretation, anger over-reactivity, hypervigilance). Auditory/visual hallucinations (55.7%), delusions (92.4%), ideas of reference (96.8%) and adversity (90.0% ≥10/24 C-TALE-types) were common. Mean loss (4) and trauma (8) onset-age occurred before SAU-onset (12). Significant positive correlations were found among psychotic-spectrum symptoms, stressor-reactivity, C-TALE, adversity-indicators; and number of SAU-types; and a negative correlation occurred between psychotic-spectrum symptoms and earlier alcohol use onset. After controlling for number of SAU-types, stressor-reactivity and adversity-related numbing individually had the largest associations with total psychotic-spectrum symptoms (b = 2.6-4.3). Girls averaged more than 4 maladaptive coping strategies (e.g., 24.8% attempted suicide) in response to adversity, amplifying potential health-disparities. No racial/ethnic differences emerged on psychotic-spectrum symptoms. This symptom constellation during adolescence likely interferes with social and academic

  19. Consumer financial vulnerability: identifying transmission linkages ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    activates the postulated consumer financial vulnerability index (CFVI) .... words, the relationship between income, consumption, debt and saving as well as .... separation/divorce and bad financial management, as well as exogenous factors.

  20. Focus Cities : Reducing the Vulnerability, Poverty and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Focus Cities : Reducing the Vulnerability, Poverty and Environmental Load in ... 000 lives in closely constructed houses built right up to the edge of the Rimac River. ... and the Lima Metropolitan Urban Plan will be updated in light of the results.

  1. Social protection initiatives for Zimbabwe's vulnerable groups ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Saharan African region. ... especially for vulnerable groups. At independence in 1980, Zimbabwe pledged to promote a viable social protection system that would be predicated on the principles of social justice and equality of opportunity.

  2. evaluation of models for assessing groundwater vulnerability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR. AMINU

    applied models for groundwater vulnerability assessment mapping. The appraoches .... The overall 'pollution potential' or DRASTIC index is established by applying the formula: DRASTIC Index: ... affected by the structure of the soil surface.

  3. The vulnerability of Palestinian refugees from Syria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leah Morrison

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available While Syrian nationals may eventually return to their home country, the future for Palestinians from Syria is increasingly uncertain. Meanwhile they are more vulnerable than, and treated worse than, most other refugees from the Syrian conflict.

  4. A Survey of Satellite Communications System Vulnerabilities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Steinberger, Jessica A

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. military's increasing reliance on commercial and military communications satellites to enable widely-dispersed, mobile forces to communicate makes these space assets increasingly vulnerable to attack by adversaries...

  5. Climate Change, Household Vulnerability and Smart Agriculture

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Marina

    The cost benefits analysis was the main technique used to evaluate alternative adaptation strategies. .... Figure 7 Different vulnerability levels of households from Lambani and Alice . ...... practices and the maintenance of surface residues.

  6. CDC's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) Mapping Dashboard

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The interactive maps are visual representations of the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Data were extracted from the US Census and the American Community Survey.

  7. AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    victoria

    to adapt to climate change automatically implies vulnerability [14]. Thus, a .... this pattern is that rainfall may not be witnessed when desired for agricultural production .... climate change since it will enhance their ability to adopt innovations and ...

  8. Violence and vulnerabilities: Afghans in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanaa Alimia

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Given that the majority of Afghans who live in Pakistan today are unlikely to return to Afghanistan, more needs to be done to address their vulnerabilities and protect them from harassment and violence.

  9. Distributed Generation to Counter Grid Vulnerability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nerad, Anton H

    2007-01-01

    In this paper I examine how the United States can best defend against the interruption of critical electrical energy by hostile acts, identify and examine some of the vulnerabilities to our nation's...

  10. A Critical Analysis of Vulnerability Taxonomies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bishop, Matt; Bailey, David

    1996-01-01

    Computer vulnerabilities seem to be omnipresent. In every system fielded programming errors configuration errors and operation errors have allowed unauthorized users to enter systems or authorized users to take unauthorized actions...

  11. Commercial Air Carrier Vulnerabilities to Information Operations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shelburn, Bryan H

    2002-01-01

    .... Among those elements susceptible to these vulnerabilities are the operations of commercial air carriers that are essential to the military's ability to wage war and project power wherever needed in the world...

  12. 5. Sexual Behaviours and Vulnerabilities to HIV

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Esem

    disability are among the poorest, least educated, and ... services can trap people in a cycle of poverty ... vulnerability, the need for attendant care, life in ... instrument by relying on approaches . ...... Training in learning disability for peers that.

  13. Relative seismic shaking vulnerability microzonation using an ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the relative seismic shaking vulnerability for built structures of different height categories within adjacent ..... monitor for possible changes in the microzonation results over time ..... The vehicle's ... A Garmin GPS 12XL was used to determine the.

  14. [Aged woman's vulnerability related to AIDS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Carla Marins; Lopes, Fernanda Maria do Valle Martins; Vargens, Octavio Muniz da Costa

    2010-09-01

    This article is a systhematic literature review including the period from 1994 to 2009, whose objective was to discuss the aged woman's vulnerability in relation to Acquired Imunodeficiency Syndrome (Aids). The search for scientific texts was accomplished in the following databases: Biblioteca Virtual em Saúde, Scientific Eletronic Library Online (SciELO), Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde (LILACS) and Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE). The descriptors used were vulnerability, woman and Aids. Eighteen texts were analyzed, including articles in scientific journals, thesis and dissertations. As a conclusion, it was noted that aged women and vulnerability to Aids are directly related, through gender characteristics including submission and that were built historical and socially. We consider as fundamental the development of studies which may generate publications accessible to women, in order to help them see themselves as persons vulnerable to Aids contagion just for being women.

  15. Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron Macneil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Ohman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

    2011-04-01

    With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  16. Cumulative effects in Swedish EIA practice - difficulties and obstacles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waernbaeck, Antoienette; Hilding-Rydevik, Tuija

    2009-01-01

    The importance of considering cumulative effects (CE) in the context of environmental assessment is manifested in the EU regulations. The demands on the contents of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) documents explicitly ask for CE to be described. In Swedish environmental assessment documents CE are rarely described or included. The aim of this paper is to look into the reasons behind this fact in the Swedish context. The paper describes and analyse how actors implementing the EIA and SEA legislation in Sweden perceive the current situation in relation to the legislative demands and the inclusion of cumulative effects. Through semi-structured interviews the following questions have been explored: Is the phenomenon of CE discussed and included in the EIA/SEA process? What do the actors include in and what is their knowledge of the term and concept of CE? Which difficulties and obstacles do these actors experience and what possibilities for inclusion of CE do they see in the EIA/SEA process? A large number of obstacles and hindrances emerged from the interviews conducted. It can be concluded from the analysis that the will to act does seem to exist. A lack of knowledge in respect of how to include cumulative effects and a lack of clear regulations concerning how this should be done seem to be perceived as the main obstacles. The knowledge of the term and the phenomenon is furthermore quite narrow and not all encompassing. They experience that there is a lack of procedures in place. They also seem to lack knowledge of methods in relation to how to actually work, in practice, with CE and how to include CE in the EIA/SEA process. It can be stated that the existence of this poor picture in relation to practice concerning CE in the context of impact assessment mirrors the existing and so far rather vague demands in respect of the inclusion and assessment of CE in Swedish EIA and SEA legislation, regulations, guidelines and

  17. Technical Note: SCUDA: A software platform for cumulative dose assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Seyoun; McNutt, Todd; Quon, Harry; Wong, John; Lee, Junghoon, E-mail: rshekhar@childrensnational.org, E-mail: junghoon@jhu.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21231 (United States); Plishker, William [IGI Technologies, Inc., College Park, Maryland 20742 (United States); Shekhar, Raj, E-mail: rshekhar@childrensnational.org, E-mail: junghoon@jhu.edu [IGI Technologies, Inc., College Park, Maryland 20742 and Sheikh Zayed Institute for Pediatric Surgical Innovation, Children’s National Health System, Washington, DC 20010 (United States)

    2016-10-15

    Purpose: Accurate tracking of anatomical changes and computation of actually delivered dose to the patient are critical for successful adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Additionally, efficient data management and fast processing are practically important for the adoption in clinic as ART involves a large amount of image and treatment data. The purpose of this study was to develop an accurate and efficient Software platform for CUmulative Dose Assessment (SCUDA) that can be seamlessly integrated into the clinical workflow. Methods: SCUDA consists of deformable image registration (DIR), segmentation, dose computation modules, and a graphical user interface. It is connected to our image PACS and radiotherapy informatics databases from which it automatically queries/retrieves patient images, radiotherapy plan, beam data, and daily treatment information, thus providing an efficient and unified workflow. For accurate registration of the planning CT and daily CBCTs, the authors iteratively correct CBCT intensities by matching local intensity histograms during the DIR process. Contours of the target tumor and critical structures are then propagated from the planning CT to daily CBCTs using the computed deformations. The actual delivered daily dose is computed using the registered CT and patient setup information by a superposition/convolution algorithm, and accumulated using the computed deformation fields. Both DIR and dose computation modules are accelerated by a graphics processing unit. Results: The cumulative dose computation process has been validated on 30 head and neck (HN) cancer cases, showing 3.5 ± 5.0 Gy (mean±STD) absolute mean dose differences between the planned and the actually delivered doses in the parotid glands. On average, DIR, dose computation, and segmentation take 20 s/fraction and 17 min for a 35-fraction treatment including additional computation for dose accumulation. Conclusions: The authors developed a unified software platform that provides

  18. The CERT Guide to Coordinated Vulnerability Disclosure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-11

    Incident vs. Vulnerability Response 6 1.3 Why Coordinate Vulnerability Disclosures? 6 1.4 Previewing the Remainder of this Document 7 2 Principles of...Accidental Leaks 53 6.5 Independent Discovery 54 6.6 Active Exploitation 55 6.7 Relationships that Go Sideways 55 6.8 Hype, Marketing , and...guide provides an introduction to the key concepts, principles , and roles necessary to establish a successful CVD process. It also provides insights

  19. The Vulnerable Subject of Negligence Law

    OpenAIRE

    Stychin, C.

    2012-01-01

    The approach taken by English courts to the duty of care question in negligence has been subject to harsh criticism in recent years. This article examines this fundamental issue in tort law, drawing upon Canadian and Australian jurisprudence by way of comparison. From this analysis, the concept of vulnerability is developed as a productive means of understanding the duty of care. Vulnerability is of increasing interest in legal and political theory and it is of particular relevance to the law...

  20. Rockfall vulnerability assessment for reinforced concrete buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavrouli, O.; Corominas, J.

    2010-10-01

    The vulnerability of buildings to the impact of rockfalls is a topic that has recently attracted increasing attention in the scientific literature. The quantification of the vulnerability, when based on empirical or heuristic approaches requires data recorded from historical rockfalls, which are not always available. This is the reason why appropriate alternatives are required. The use of analytical and numerical models can be one of them. In this paper, a methodology is proposed for the analytical evaluation of the vulnerability of reinforced concrete buildings. The vulnerability is included in the risk equation by incorporating the uncertainty of the impact location of the rock block and the subsequent damage level. The output is a weighted vulnerability that ranges from 0 to 1 and expresses the potential damage that a rock block causes to a building in function of its velocity and size. The vulnerability is calculated by the sum of the products of the probability of block impact on each element of the building and its associated damage state, the latter expressed in relative recovery cost terms. The probability of exceeding a specific damage state such as non-structural, local, partial, extensive or total collapse is also important for the quantification of risk and to this purpose, several sets of fragility curves for various rock diameters and increasing velocities have been prepared. An example is shown for the case of a simple reinforced concrete building and impact energies from 0 to 4075 kJ.

  1. Cumulative trauma and symptom complexity in children: a path analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodges, Monica; Godbout, Natacha; Briere, John; Lanktree, Cheryl; Gilbert, Alicia; Kletzka, Nicole Taylor

    2013-11-01

    Multiple trauma exposures during childhood are associated with a range of psychological symptoms later in life. In this study, we examined whether the total number of different types of trauma experienced by children (cumulative trauma) is associated with the complexity of their subsequent symptomatology, where complexity is defined as the number of different symptom clusters simultaneously elevated into the clinical range. Children's symptoms in six different trauma-related areas (e.g., depression, anger, posttraumatic stress) were reported both by child clients and their caretakers in a clinical sample of 318 children. Path analysis revealed that accumulated exposure to multiple different trauma types predicts symptom complexity as reported by both children and their caretakers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Near-Field Source Localization Using a Special Cumulant Matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Han; Wei, Gang

    A new near-field source localization algorithm based on a uniform linear array was proposed. The proposed algorithm estimates each parameter separately but does not need pairing parameters. It can be divided into two important steps. The first step is bearing-related electric angle estimation based on the ESPRIT algorithm by constructing a special cumulant matrix. The second step is the other electric angle estimation based on the 1-D MUSIC spectrum. It offers much lower computational complexity than the traditional near-field 2-D MUSIC algorithm and has better performance than the high-order ESPRIT algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate that the performance of the proposed algorithm is close to the Cramer-Rao Bound (CRB).

  3. Cumulative growth of minor hysteresis loops in the Kolmogorov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meilikhov, E. Z.; Farzetdinova, R. M.

    2013-01-01

    The phenomenon of nonrepeatability of successive remagnetization cycles in Co/M (M = Pt, Pd, Au) multilayer film structures is explained in the framework of the Kolmogorov crystallization model. It is shown that this model of phase transitions can be adapted so as to adequately describe the process of magnetic relaxation in the indicated systems with “memory.” For this purpose, it is necessary to introduce some additional elements into the model, in particular, (i) to take into account the fact that every cycle starts from a state “inherited” from the preceding cycle and (ii) to assume that the rate of growth of a new magnetic phase depends on the cycle number. This modified model provides a quite satisfactory qualitative and quantitative description of all features of successive magnetic relaxation cycles in the system under consideration, including the surprising phenomenon of cumulative growth of minor hysteresis loops.

  4. Cumulative protons in 12C fragmentation at intermediate energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abramov, B.M.; Alekseev, P.N.; Borodin, Y.A.; Bulychjov, S.A.; Dukhovskoi, I.A.; Khanov, A.I.; Krutenkova, A.P.; Kulikov, V.V.; Martemianov, M.A.; Matsuk, M.A.; Turdakina, E.N.

    2014-01-01

    In the FRAGM experiment at heavy ion accelerator complex TWAC-ITEP, the proton yields at an angle 3.5 degrees have been measured in fragmentation of carbon ions at T 0 equals 0.3, 0.6, 0.95 and 2.0 GeV/nucleon on beryllium target. The data are presented as invariant proton yields on cumulative variable x in the range 0.9 < x < 2.4. Proton spectra cover six orders of invariant cross section magnitude. They have been analyzed in the framework of quark cluster fragmentation model. Fragmentation functions of quark- gluon string model are used. The probabilities of the existence of multi-quark clusters in carbon nuclei are estimated to be 8 - 12% for six-quark clusters and 0.2 - 0.6% for nine- quark clusters. (authors)

  5. Ratcheting up the ratchet: on the evolution of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tennie, Claudio; Call, Josep; Tomasello, Michael

    2009-08-27

    Some researchers have claimed that chimpanzee and human culture rest on homologous cognitive and learning mechanisms. While clearly there are some homologous mechanisms, we argue here that there are some different mechanisms at work as well. Chimpanzee cultural traditions represent behavioural biases of different populations, all within the species' existing cognitive repertoire (what we call the 'zone of latent solutions') that are generated by founder effects, individual learning and mostly product-oriented (rather than process-oriented) copying. Human culture, in contrast, has the distinctive characteristic that it accumulates modifications over time (what we call the 'ratchet effect'). This difference results from the facts that (i) human social learning is more oriented towards process than product and (ii) unique forms of human cooperation lead to active teaching, social motivations for conformity and normative sanctions against non-conformity. Together, these unique processes of social learning and cooperation lead to humans' unique form of cumulative cultural evolution.

  6. EXPERIMENTAL VALIDATION OF CUMULATIVE SURFACE LOCATION ERROR FOR TURNING PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam K. Kiss

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to create a mechanical model which is suitable to investigate the surface quality in turning processes, based on the Cumulative Surface Location Error (CSLE, which describes the series of the consecutive Surface Location Errors (SLE in roughing operations. In the established model, the investigated CSLE depends on the currently and the previously resulted SLE by means of the variation of the width of cut. The phenomenon of the system can be described as an implicit discrete map. The stationary Surface Location Error and its bifurcations were analysed and flip-type bifurcation was observed for CSLE. Experimental verification of the theoretical results was carried out.

  7. Ratcheting up the ratchet: on the evolution of cumulative culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tennie, Claudio; Call, Josep; Tomasello, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Some researchers have claimed that chimpanzee and human culture rest on homologous cognitive and learning mechanisms. While clearly there are some homologous mechanisms, we argue here that there are some different mechanisms at work as well. Chimpanzee cultural traditions represent behavioural biases of different populations, all within the species’ existing cognitive repertoire (what we call the ‘zone of latent solutions’) that are generated by founder effects, individual learning and mostly product-oriented (rather than process-oriented) copying. Human culture, in contrast, has the distinctive characteristic that it accumulates modifications over time (what we call the ‘ratchet effect’). This difference results from the facts that (i) human social learning is more oriented towards process than product and (ii) unique forms of human cooperation lead to active teaching, social motivations for conformity and normative sanctions against non-conformity. Together, these unique processes of social learning and cooperation lead to humans’ unique form of cumulative cultural evolution. PMID:19620111

  8. Cumulative neutrino background from quasar-driven outflows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xiawei; Loeb, Abraham, E-mail: xiawei.wang@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: aloeb@cfa.harvard.edu [Department of Astronomy, Harvard University, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Quasar-driven outflows naturally account for the missing component of the extragalactic γ-ray background through neutral pion production in interactions between protons accelerated by the forward outflow shock and interstellar protons. We study the simultaneous neutrino emission by the same protons. We adopt outflow parameters that best fit the extragalactic γ-ray background data and derive a cumulative neutrino background of ∼ 10{sup −7} GeV cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} sr{sup −1} at neutrino energies E {sub ν} ∼> 10 TeV, which naturally explains the most recent IceCube data without tuning any free parameters. The link between the γ-ray and neutrino emission from quasar outflows can be used to constrain the high-energy physics of strong shocks at cosmological distances.

  9. Using Fuzzy Probability Weights in Cumulative Prospect Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Užga-Rebrovs Oļegs

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available During the past years, a rapid growth has been seen in the descriptive approaches to decision choice. As opposed to normative expected utility theory, these approaches are based on the subjective perception of probabilities by the individuals, which takes place in real situations of risky choice. The modelling of this kind of perceptions is made on the basis of probability weighting functions. In cumulative prospect theory, which is the focus of this paper, decision prospect outcome weights are calculated using the obtained probability weights. If the value functions are constructed in the sets of positive and negative outcomes, then, based on the outcome value evaluations and outcome decision weights, generalised evaluations of prospect value are calculated, which are the basis for choosing an optimal prospect.

  10. Modelling the evolution and diversity of cumulative culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enquist, Magnus; Ghirlanda, Stefano; Eriksson, Kimmo

    2011-01-01

    Previous work on mathematical models of cultural evolution has mainly focused on the diffusion of simple cultural elements. However, a characteristic feature of human cultural evolution is the seemingly limitless appearance of new and increasingly complex cultural elements. Here, we develop a general modelling framework to study such cumulative processes, in which we assume that the appearance and disappearance of cultural elements are stochastic events that depend on the current state of culture. Five scenarios are explored: evolution of independent cultural elements, stepwise modification of elements, differentiation or combination of elements and systems of cultural elements. As one application of our framework, we study the evolution of cultural diversity (in time as well as between groups). PMID:21199845

  11. Optimal execution with price impact under Cumulative Prospect Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jingdong; Zhu, Hongliang; Li, Xindan

    2018-01-01

    Optimal execution of a stock (or portfolio) has been widely studied in academia and in practice over the past decade, and minimizing transaction costs is a critical point. However, few researchers consider the psychological factors for the traders. What are traders truly concerned with - buying low in the paper accounts or buying lower compared to others? We consider the optimal trading strategies in terms of the price impact and Cumulative Prospect Theory and identify some specific properties. Our analyses indicate that a large proportion of the execution volume is distributed at both ends of the transaction time. But the trader's optimal strategies may not be implemented at the same transaction size and speed in different market environments.

  12. Practical management of cumulative anthropogenic impacts with working marine examples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyhn, Line Anker; Wright, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    for petroleum. Human disturbances, including the noise almost ubiquitously associated with human activity, are likely to increase the incidence, magnitude, and duration of adverse effects on marine life, including stress responses. Stress responses have the potential to induce fitness consequences...... on impact can be facilitated through implementation of regular application cycles for project authorization or improved programmatic and aggregated impact assessments that simultaneously consider multiple projects. Cross-company collaborations and a better incorporation of uncertainty into decision making...... could also help limit, if not reduce, cumulative impacts of multiple human activities. These simple management steps may also form the basis of a rudimentary form of marine spatial planning and could be used in support of future ecosystem-based management efforts....

  13. Countermeasures to Neurobehavioral Deficits from Cumulative Partial Sleep Deprivation During Space Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinges, David F.

    1999-01-01

    This project is concerned with identifying ways to prevent neurobehavioral and physical deterioration due to inadequate sleep in astronauts during long-duration manned space flight. The performance capability of astronauts during extended-duration space flight depends heavily on achieving recovery through adequate sleep. Even with appropriate circadian alignment, sleep loss can erode fundamental elements of human performance capability including vigilance, cognitive speed and accuracy, working memory, reaction time, and physiological alertness. Adequate sleep is essential during manned space flight not only to ensure high levels of safe and effective human performance, but also as a basic regulatory biology critical to healthy human functioning. There is now extensive objective evidence that astronaut sleep is frequently restricted in space flight to averages between 4 hr and 6.5 hr/day. Chronic sleep restriction during manned space flight can occur in response to endogenous disturbances of sleep (motion sickness, stress, circadian rhythms), environmental disruptions of sleep (noise, temperature, light), and curtailment of sleep due to the work demands and other activities that accompany extended space flight operations. The mechanism through which this risk emerges is the development of cumulative homeostatic pressure for sleep across consecutive days of inadequate sleep. Research has shown that the physiological sleepiness and performance deficits engendered by sleep debt can progressively worsen (i.e., accumulate) over consecutive days of sleep restriction, and that sleep limited to levels commonly experienced by astronauts (i.e., 4 - 6 hr per night) for as little as 1 week, can result in increased lapses of attention, degradation of response times, deficits in complex problem solving, reduced learning, mood disturbance, disruption of essential neuroendocrine, metabolic, and neuroimmune responses, and in some vulnerable persons, the emergence of uncontrolled

  14. Practical management of cumulative anthropogenic impacts with working marine examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Andrew J; Kyhn, Line A

    2015-04-01

    Human pressure on the environment is expanding and intensifying, especially in coastal and offshore areas. Major contributors to this are the current push for offshore renewable energy sources, which are thought of as environmentally friendly sources of power, as well as the continued demand for petroleum. Human disturbances, including the noise almost ubiquitously associated with human activity, are likely to increase the incidence, magnitude, and duration of adverse effects on marine life, including stress responses. Stress responses have the potential to induce fitness consequences for individuals, which add to more obvious directed takes (e.g., hunting or fishing) to increase the overall population-level impact. To meet the requirements of marine spatial planning and ecosystem-based management, many efforts are ongoing to quantify the cumulative impacts of all human actions on marine species or populations. Meanwhile, regulators face the challenge of managing these accumulating and interacting impacts with limited scientific guidance. We believe there is scientific support for capping the level of impact for (at a minimum) populations in decline or with unknown statuses. This cap on impact can be facilitated through implementation of regular application cycles for project authorization or improved programmatic and aggregated impact assessments that simultaneously consider multiple projects. Cross-company collaborations and a better incorporation of uncertainty into decision making could also help limit, if not reduce, cumulative impacts of multiple human activities. These simple management steps may also form the basis of a rudimentary form of marine spatial planning and could be used in support of future ecosystem-based management efforts. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  15. County-level cumulative environmental quality associated with cancer incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagai, Jyotsna S; Messer, Lynne C; Rappazzo, Kristen M; Gray, Christine L; Grabich, Shannon C; Lobdell, Danelle T

    2017-08-01

    Individual environmental exposures are associated with cancer development; however, environmental exposures occur simultaneously. The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) is a county-level measure of cumulative environmental exposures that occur in 5 domains. The EQI was linked to county-level annual age-adjusted cancer incidence rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program state cancer profiles. All-site cancer and the top 3 site-specific cancers for male and female subjects were considered. Incident rate differences (IRDs; annual rate difference per 100,000 persons) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using fixed-slope, random intercept multilevel linear regression models. Associations were assessed with domain-specific indices and analyses were stratified by rural/urban status. Comparing the highest quintile/poorest environmental quality with the lowest quintile/best environmental quality for overall EQI, all-site county-level cancer incidence rate was positively associated with poor environmental quality overall (IRD, 38.55; 95% CI, 29.57-47.53) and for male (IRD, 32.60; 95% CI, 16.28-48.91) and female (IRD, 30.34; 95% CI, 20.47-40.21) subjects, indicating a potential increase in cancer incidence with decreasing environmental quality. Rural/urban stratified models demonstrated positive associations comparing the highest with the lowest quintiles for all strata, except the thinly populated/rural stratum and in the metropolitan/urbanized stratum. Prostate and breast cancer demonstrated the strongest positive associations with poor environmental quality. We observed strong positive associations between the EQI and all-site cancer incidence rates, and associations differed by rural/urban status and environmental domain. Research focusing on single environmental exposures in cancer development may not address the broader environmental context in which cancers develop, and future research should address cumulative environmental

  16. Economic and policy implications of the cumulative carbon budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E. L.; Otto, A.; Hepburn, C.

    2014-12-01

    The importance of cumulative carbon emissions in determining long-term risks of climate change presents considerable challenges to policy makers. The traditional notion of "total CO2-equivalent emissions", which forms the backbone of agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the European Emissions Trading System, is fundamentally flawed. Measures to reduce short-lived climate pollutants benefit the current generation, while measures to reduce long-lived climate pollutants benefit future generations, so there is no sense in which they can ever be considered equivalent. Debates over the correct metric used to compute CO2-equivalence are thus entirely moot: both long-lived and short-lived emissions will need to be addressed if all generations are to be protected from dangerous climate change. As far as long-lived climate pollutants are concerned, the latest IPCC report highlights the overwhelming importance of carbon capture and storage in determining the cost of meeting the goal of limiting anthropogenic warming to two degrees. We will show that this importance arises directly from the cumulative carbon budget and the role of CCS as the technology of last resort before economic activity needs to be restricted to meet ambitious climate targets. It highlights the need to increase the rate of CCS deployment by orders of magnitude if the option of avoiding two degrees is to be retained. The difficulty of achieving this speed of deployment through conventional incentives and carbon-pricing mechanisms suggests a need for a much more direct mandatory approach. Despite their theoretical economic inefficiency, the success of recent regulatory measures in achieving greenhouse gas emissions reductions in jurisdictions such as the United States suggests an extension of the regulatory approach could be a more effective and politically acceptable means of achieving adequately rapid CCS deployment than conventional carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems.

  17. Drought vulnerability assesssment and mapping in Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imani, Yasmina; Lahlou, Ouiam; Bennasser Alaoui, Si; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Juergen

    2014-05-01

    Drought vulnerability assessment and mapping in Morocco Authors: Yasmina Imani 1, Ouiam Lahlou 1, Si Bennasser Alaoui 1 Paulo Barbosa 2, Jurgen Vogt 2, Gustavo Naumann 2 1: Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II (IAV Hassan II), Rabat Morocco. 2: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Ispra, Italy. In Morocco, nearly 50% of the population lives in rural areas. They are mostly small subsistent farmers whose production depends almost entirely on rainfall. They are therefore very sensitive to drought episodes that may dramatically affect their incomes. Although, as a consequence of the increasing frequency, length and severity of drought episodes in the late 90's, the Moroccan government decided, to move on from a crisis to a risk management approach, drought management remains in practice mainly reactive and often ineffective. The lack of effectiveness of public policy is in part a consequence of the poor understanding of drought vulnerability at the rural community level, which prevents the development of efficient mitigation actions and adaptation strategies, tailored to the needs and specificities of each rural community. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess and map drought vulnerability at the rural commune level in the Oum Er-Rbia basin which is a very heterogeneous basin, showing a big variability of climates, landscapes, cropping systems and social habits. Agricultural data collected from the provincial and local administrations of Agriculture and socio-economic data from the National Department of Statistics were used to compute a composite vulnerability index (DVI) integrating four different components: (i) the renewable natural capacity, (ii) the economic capacity, (iii) human and civic resources, and (iv) infrastructure and technology. The drought vulnerability maps that were derived from the computation of the DVI shows that except very specific areas, most of the Oum er Rbia

  18. Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heberger, M. G.; Cooley, H.; Moore, E.; Garzon, C.

    2011-12-01

    The western United States faces a range of impacts from global climate change, including increases in extreme heat, wildfires, and coastal flooding and erosion; changes are also likely to occur in air quality, water availability, and the spread of infectious diseases. To date, a great deal of research has been done to forecast the physical effects of climate change, while less attention has been given to the factors make different populations more or less vulnerable to harm from such changes. For example, mortality rates from Hurricane Audrey, which struck the coast of Louisiana in 1957, were more than eight times higher among blacks than among whites. While disaster events may not discriminate, impacts on human populations are shaped by "intervening conditions" that determine the human impact of the flood and the specific needs for preparedness, response, and recovery. In this study, we analyze the potential impacts of climate change by using recent downscaled climate model outputs, creating a variety of statistics and visualizations to communicate potential impacts to community groups and decision makers, after several meetings with these groups to ask, "What types of information are most useful to you for planning?" We relate climate impacts to social vulnerability - defined as the intersection of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of a person or group of people - with a focus on the U.S. state of California. Understanding vulnerability factors and the populations that exhibit these factors are critical for crafting effective climate change policies and response strategies. It is also important to the emerging study of climate justice, which is the concept that no group of people should disproportionately bear the burden of climate impacts or the costs of mitigation and adaptation.

  19. A knowledge integration approach to flood vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzorana, Bruno; Fuchs, Sven

    2014-05-01

    Understanding, qualifying and quantifying vulnerability is an essential need for implementing effective and efficient flood risk mitigation strategies; in particular if possible synergies between different mitigation alternatives, such as active and passive measures, should be achieved. In order to combine different risk management options it is necessary to take an interdisciplinary approach to vulnerability reduction, and as a result the affected society may be willing to accept a certain degree of self-responsibility. However, due to differing mono-disciplinary approaches and regional foci undertaken until now, different aspects of vulnerability to natural hazards in general and to floods in particular remain uncovered and as a result the developed management options remain sub-optimal. Taking an even more fundamental viewpoint, the empirical vulnerability functions used in risk assessment specifically fail to capture physical principles of the damage-generating mechanisms to the build environment. The aim of this paper is to partially close this gap by discussing a balanced knowledge integration approach which can be used to resolve the multidisciplinary disorder in flood vulnerability research. Modelling techniques such as mathematical-physical modelling of the flood hazard impact to and response from the building envelope affected, and formative scenario analyses of possible consequences in terms of damage and loss are used in synergy to provide an enhanced understanding of vulnerability and to render the derived knowledge into interdisciplinary mitigation strategies. The outlined formal procedure allows for a convincing knowledge alignment of quantified, but partial, information about vulnerability as a result of the application of physical and engineering notions and valuable, but often underspecified, qualitative argumentation strings emerging from the adopted socio-economic viewpoint.

  20. Heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leigh, D.G.

    1976-01-01

    The arrangement described relates particularly to heat exchangers for use in fast reactor power plants, in which heat is extracted from the reactor core by primary liquid metal coolant and is then transferred to secondary liquid metal coolant by means of intermediate heat exchangers. One of the main requirements of such a system, if used in a pool type fast reactor, is that the pressure drop on the primary coolant side must be kept to a minimum consistent with the maintenance of a limited dynamic head in the pool vessel. The intermediate heat exchanger must also be compact enough to be accommodated in the reactor vessel, and the heat exchanger tubes must be available for inspection and the detection and plugging of leaks. If, however, the heat exchanger is located outside the reactor vessel, as in the case of a loop system reactor, a higher pressure drop on the primary coolant side is acceptable, and space restriction is less severe. An object of the arrangement described is to provide a method of heat exchange and a heat exchanger to meet these problems. A further object is to provide a method that ensures that excessive temperature variations are not imposed on welded tube joints by sudden changes in the primary coolant flow path. Full constructional details are given. (U.K.)

  1. Direct Heat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lienau, P J

    1990-01-01

    Potential resources and applications of earth heat in the form of geothermal energy are large. United States direct uses amount to 2,100 MWt thermal and worldwide 8,850 MWt above a reference temperature of 35 degrees Celsius. Space and district heating are the major direct uses of geothermal energy. Equipment employed in direct use projects is of standard manufacture and includes downhole and circulation pumps, transmission and distribution pipelines, heat exchangers and convectors, heat pumps and chillers. Direct uses of earth heat discussed are space and district heating, greenhouse heating and fish farming, process and industrial applications. The economic feasibility of direct use projects is governed by site specific factors such as location of user and resource, resource quality, system load factor and load density, as well as financing. Examples are presented of district heating in Klamath Falls, and Elko. Further developments of direct uses of geothermal energy will depend on matching user needs to the resource, and improving load factors and load density.

  2. Plasma heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilhelm, R.

    1989-01-01

    Successful plasma heating is essential in present fusion experiments, for the demonstration of DpT burn in future devices and finally for the fusion reactor itself. This paper discusses the common heating systems with respect to their present performance and their applicability to future fusion devices. The comparative discussion is oriented to the various function of heating, which are: - plasma heating to fusion-relevant parameters and to ignition in future machines, -non-inductive, steady-pstate current drive, - plasma profile control, -neutral gas breakdown and plasma build-up. In view of these different functions, the potential of neutral beam injection (NBI) and the various schemes of wave heating (ECRH, LH, ICRH and Alven wave heating) is analyzed in more detail. The analysis includes assessments of the present physical and technical state of these heating methods, and makes suggestions for future developments and about outstanding problems. Specific attention is given to the still critical problem of efficient current drive, especially with respect to further extrapolation towards an economically operating tokamak reactor. Remarks on issues such as reliability, maintenance and economy conclude this comparative overview on plasma heating systems. (author). 43 refs.; 13 figs.; 3 tabs

  3. Vulnerability of shortgrass prairie bird assemblages to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skagen, Susan K.; Dreitz, Victoria; Conrey, Reesa Y.; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.; Knuffman, Lekha

    2016-01-01

    The habitats and resources needed to support grassland birds endemic to North American prairie ecosystems are seriously threatened by impending climate change. To assess the vulnerability of grassland birds to climate change, we consider various components of vulnerability, including sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity (Glick et al. 2011). Sensitivity encompasses the innate characteristics of a species and, in this context, is related to a species’ tolerance to changes in weather patterns. Groundnesting birds, including prairie birds, are particularly responsive to heat waves combined with drought conditions, as revealed by abundance and distribution patterns (Albright et al. 2010). To further assess sensitivity, we estimated reproductive parameters of nearly 3000 breeding attempts of a suite of prairie birds relative to prevailing weather. Fluctuations in weather conditions in eastern Colorado, 1997-2014, influenced breeding performance of a suite of avian species endemic to the shortgrass prairie, many of which have experienced recent population declines. High summer temperatures and intense rain events corresponded with lower nest survival for most species. Although dry conditions favored nest survival of Burrowing Owls and Mountain Plovers (Conrey 2010, Dreitz et al. 2012), drought resulted in smaller clutch sizes and lower nest survival for passerines (Skagen and Yackel Adams 2012, Conrey et al. in review). Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that some passerine species can maintain stable breeding populations in this region of the shortgrass prairie.

  4. Localised hydrodynamics influence vulnerability of coral communities to environmental disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shedrawi, George; Falter, James L.; Friedman, Kim J.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Simpson, Christopher J.; Speed, Conrad W.; Wilson, Shaun K.; Zhang, Zhenlin

    2017-09-01

    The movement of water can have a significant influence on the vulnerability of hermatypic corals to environmental disturbances such as cyclone damage, heat stress and anoxia. Here, we explore the relationship between small reef-scale water circulation patterns and measured differences in the abundance, composition and vulnerability of coral assemblages over decades. Changes in coral cover and community structure within Bill's Bay (Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia) over a 22-yr period, during which multiple disturbance events (including mass bleaching, anoxia, and tropical cyclones) have impacted the area, were compared with spatial variation in water residence times (WRT). We found that reef sites associated with longer water residence times (WRT >15 h) experienced higher rates of coral mortality during acute environmental disturbances compared to reef sites with shorter WRT. Shifts in coral community composition from acroporid to faviid-dominated assemblages were also more prominent at sites with long WRT compared to reef sites with shorter WRT, although shifts in community composition were also observed at sites close to shore. Interestingly, these same long-WRT sites also tended to have the fastest recovery rates so that coral cover was returned to original levels of approximately 20% over two decades. This study provides empirical evidence that spatial patterns in water circulation and flushing can influence the resilience of coral communities, thus identifying areas sensitive to emerging threats associated with global climate change.

  5. Heat Stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørch, Sofie Søndergaard; Andersen, Johnny Dohn Holmgren; Bestle, Morten Heiberg

    2017-01-01

    not diagnosed until several days after admittance; hence treatment with cooling was delayed. Both patients were admitted to the intensive care unit, where they were treated with an external cooling device and received treatment for complications. Both cases ended fatally. As global warming continues, more heat......Heat stroke is an acute, life-threatening emergency characterized clinically by elevated body temperature and central nervous system dysfunction. Early recognition and treatment including aggressive cooling and management of life-threatening systemic complications are essential to reduce morbidity...... and mortality. This case report describes two Danish patients diagnosed with heat stroke syndrome during a heat wave in the summer of 2014. Both patients were morbidly obese and had several predisposing illnesses. However since heat stroke is a rare condition in areas with temperate climate, they were...

  6. Fluctuation between grandiose and vulnerable narcissism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gore, Whitney L; Widiger, Thomas A

    2016-10-01

    Current literature on narcissistic personality disorder has emphasized a distinction between grandiose and vulnerable narcissism. Some researchers have further suggested that narcissistic persons fluctuate between grandiose and vulnerable narcissism. However, this perception has been confined largely to clinical experience with no systematic research testing the hypothesis. Clinicians and clinical psychology professors in the current study identified 143 persons who fit a description of either a grandiose or a vulnerable narcissist and indicated the extent to which these persons ever demonstrated traits of the complementary variant. The results supported the fluctuation hypothesis, particularly for episodes of vulnerable narcissism in persons identified as a grandiose narcissist. Correlations of the grandiose and vulnerable narcissism traits with a brief five-factor model measure corroborated past trait descriptions of the 2 respective variants of narcissism. The results of the current study are compared with existing cross-sectional and longitudinal research, and suggestions for future research are provided. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Comparative studies of groundwater vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria, Rizka

    2018-02-01

    Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small-moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.

  8. Vulnerability of multiple-barrier systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lind, N.C.

    1996-01-01

    'Vulnerability' is defined as the ratio of the probability of failure of a damaged system to the probability of failure of the undamaged system. This definition applies to all engineered systems and can be specialized to particular system types. Some disastrous failures (e.g., Chernobyl) have shown that systems can be highly vulnerable. open-quotes Defense in depthclose quotes is a powerful design principle, reducing vulnerability when the consequences of failure can be catastrophic. In the nuclear industry, defense in depth is widely used in radiation protection, reactor control, and shutdown systems. A multiple-barrier system is a simple example of a system that has defense in depth. The idea is that the system is not vulnerable. It cannot fail if one barrier fails because there is another to take its place. This idea is untenable in waste management, but a quantified vulnerability of a system can help owners, designers, and regulators decide how much defense in depth is desirable or enough. Many multiple-barrier systems can be modeled as systems of components physically in a series, each individually able to prevent failure. Components typically have bimodal distributions of the service time to failure, as illustrated by an example of application to a hypothetical nuclear fuel waste repository

  9. Windows Server 2012 vulnerabilities and security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel R. López

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This investigation analyses the history of the vulnerabilities of the base system Windows Server 2012 highlighting the most critic vulnerabilities given every 4 months since its creation until the current date of the research. It was organized by the type of vulnerabilities based on the classification of the NIST. Next, given the official vulnerabilities of the system, the authors show how a critical vulnerability is treated by Microsoft in order to countermeasure the security flaw. Then, the authors present the recommended security approaches for Windows Server 2012, which focus on the baseline software given by Microsoft, update, patch and change management, hardening practices and the application of Active Directory Rights Management Services (AD RMS. AD RMS is considered as an important feature since it is able to protect the system even though it is compromised using access lists at a document level. Finally, the investigation of the state of the art related to the security of Windows Server 2012 shows an analysis of solutions given by third parties vendors, which offer security products to secure the base system objective of this study. The recommended solution given by the authors present the security vendor Symantec with its successful features and also characteristics that the authors considered that may have to be improved in future versions of the security solution.

  10. Vulnerabilities in snakebites in Sao Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Rita Bertolozzi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTOBJECTIVE To describe elements of vulnerability of victims of snakebite.METHODS This qualitative, descriptive, cross-sectional study had, as theoretical framework, the concept of vulnerability in individual, social, and programmatic dimensions. We interviewed 21 patients admitted into a hospital specialized in the care of accidents caused by venomous animals. The interviews were analyzed according to a discourse analysis technique.RESULTS Patients were mainly young men, living in remote countryside areas, where health services frequently have limited resources. We found social and individual conditions of vulnerability, such as precarious schooling, low professional qualification, housing without access to piped water, no sewage treated, and no regular garbage collection, and lack of knowledge on this health problem. Regarding the programmatic dimension, we found limited accessibility to the health services that could affect the prognosis and the frequency of sequelae and deaths.CONCLUSIONS Considering such vulnerabilities evoke the need to improve the program for control the Accidents by Venomous Animals and the training of health workers, we highlight the potential use of the concept of vulnerability, which may amplify the understanding and the recommendations for the practice and education related to snakebites.

  11. Confined aquifer vulnerability induced by a pumping well in a leakage area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Meng

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Due to the pollution of shallow groundwater and the rapid development of society and economy which consume more freshwater, the exploitation of confined groundwater is steadily increasing in north China. Therefore, the rapid decline of the confined groundwater head increases the risk of confined aquifer pollution by leaky recharge from shallow aquifers. In this paper, a quantitative method for assessing confined aquifer vulnerability to contamination due to pumping has been developed. This method is based on the shallow and confined groundwater flow model and the advection and dispersion in the aquitard, including sorption. The cumulative time for the pollutant concentration at the top boundary of confined aquifer exceeding the maximum allowable level is defined as the confined aquifer vulnerability index, which can be obtained by numerically solving the solute transport equation. A hypothetical example is chosen as a case study to illustrate the whole process. The results indicate that the proposed method is a practical and reasonable assessment method of confined aquifer vulnerability.

  12. Cumulative beam break-up study of the spallation neutron source superconducting linac

    CERN Document Server

    Jeon, D; Krafft, G A; Yunn, B; Sundelin, R; Delayen, J; Kim, S; Doleans, M

    2002-01-01

    Beam instabilities due to High Order Modes (HOMs) are a concern to superconducting (SC) linacs such as the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) linac. The effects of pulsed mode operation on transverse and longitudinal beam breakup instability are studied for H sup - beam in a consistent manner for the first time. Numerical simulation indicates that cumulative transverse beam breakup instabilities are not a concern in the SNS SC linac, primarily due to the heavy mass of H sup - beam and the HOM frequency spread resulting from manufacturing tolerances. As little as +-0.1 MHz HOM frequency spread stabilizes all the instabilities from both transverse HOMs, and also acts to stabilize the longitudinal HOMs. Such an assumed frequency spread of +-0.1 MHz HOM is small, and hence conservative compared with measured values of sigma=0.00109(f sub H sub O sub M -f sub 0)/f sub 0 obtained from Cornell and the Jefferson Lab Free Electron Laser cavities. However, a few cavities may hit resonance lines and generate a high heat lo...

  13. An Assessment of Vulnerability and Trade-offs of Dairy Farmers of India to Climate Variability and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, Aparna; Gupta, Jancy; Ravindran, Dileepkumar

    2017-04-01

    The study aims at assessing the vulnerability and tradeoffs of dairy based livelihoods to Climate Variability and Change (CVC) in the Western Ghats ecosystem, India. For this purpose; data were aggregated to an overall Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) to CVC underlying the principles of IPCC, using 40 indicators under 7 LVI components. Fussel framework was used for the nomenclature of vulnerable situation and trade-off between vulnerability components and milk production was calculated. Data were collected through participatory rural appraisal and personal interviews from 360 randomly selected dairy farmers of nine blocks from three states of Western Ghat region, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data and livestock data. The LVI score of dairy based livelihoods of six taluks were negative. The data were normalized and then combined into three indices of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given using principal component analysis, to obtain the overall vulnerability index. Mann Whitney U test was used to find the significant difference between the taluks in terms of LVI and cumulative square root frequency method was used to categorise the farmers. Even though the taluks are geographically closer, there is significant difference in the LVI values of the regions. Results indicated that the Lanja taluks of Maharashtra is the most vulnerable having an overall LVI value -4.17 with 48% farmers falling in highly vulnerable category. Panel regression analysis reveals that there is significant synergy between average milk production and livestock, social network component and trade-off between natural disasters climate variability component of LVI. Policies for incentivizing the 'climate risk adaptation' costs for small and marginal farmers and livelihood infrastructure for mitigating risks and promoting grass root level innovations are necessary to sustain dairy farming of the region. Thus the research will

  14. Analysis of LDPE-ZnO-clay nanocomposites using novel cumulative rheological parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kracalik, Milan

    2017-05-01

    Polymer nanocomposites exhibit complex rheological behaviour due to physical and also possibly chemical interactions between individual phases. Up to now, rheology of dispersive polymer systems has been usually described by evaluation of viscosity curve (shear thinning phenomenon), storage modulus curve (formation of secondary plateau) or plotting information about dumping behaviour (e.g. Van Gurp-Palmen-plot, comparison of loss factor tan δ). On the contrary to evaluation of damping behaviour, values of cot δ were calculated and called as "storage factor", analogically to loss factor. Then values of storage factor were integrated over specific frequency range and called as "cumulative storage factor". In this contribution, LDPE-ZnO-clay nanocomposites with different dispersion grades (physical networks) have been prepared and characterized by both conventional as well as novel analysis approach. Next to cumulative storage factor, further cumulative rheological parameters like cumulative complex viscosity, cumulative complex modulus or cumulative storage modulus have been introduced.

  15. Vulnerability of schools to floods in Nyando River catchment, Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochola, Samuel O; Eitel, Bernhard; Olago, Daniel O

    2010-07-01

    This paper assesses the vulnerability of schools to floods in the Nyando River catchment (3,600 km(2)) in western Kenya and identifies measures needed to reduce this vulnerability. It surveys 130 schools in the lower reaches, where flooding is a recurrent phenomenon. Of the primary schools assessed, 40% were vulnerable, 48% were marginally vulnerable and 12% were not vulnerable. Of the secondary schools, 8% were vulnerable, 73% were marginally vulnerable and 19% were not vulnerable. Vulnerability to floods is due to a lack of funds, poor building standards, local topography, soil types and inadequate drainage. The Constituencies Development Fund (CDF), established in 2003, provides financial support to cover school construction and reconstruction costs; CDF Committees are expected to adopt school building standards. In an effort to promote safe and resilient construction and retrofitting to withstand floods, this paper presents vulnerability reduction strategies and recommendations for incorporating minimum standards in the on-going Primary School Infrastructure Programme Design.

  16. Cumulative Author Index for Soviet Laser Bibliographies Nos. 67-93, September 1983-February 1989

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-02-01

    C) 0 00 I: Cumulative Author Index for Soviet Laser Bibliographies September 1983 - February 1989 A Defense S&T Intelligence Special Purpose Document...90 CUMULATIVE AUTHOR INDEX FOR SOVIET LASER BIBLIOGRAPHIES Nos. 67-93 SEPTEMBER 1983 - FEBRUARY 1989 Date of Report March 31, 19 Vice Director for...RECIPIENT’S CATALOG NUMBER DST-2700Z-001-90 4. TITLE (and Subtitle) S. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED CUMULATIVE AUTHOR INDEX FOR SOVIET LASER

  17. Heat pipes

    CERN Document Server

    Dunn, Peter D

    1994-01-01

    It is approximately 10 years since the Third Edition of Heat Pipes was published and the text is now established as the standard work on the subject. This new edition has been extensively updated, with revisions to most chapters. The introduction of new working fluids and extended life test data have been taken into account in chapter 3. A number of new types of heat pipes have become popular, and others have proved less effective. This is reflected in the contents of chapter 5. Heat pipes are employed in a wide range of applications, including electronics cooling, diecasting and injection mo

  18. Heat conduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grigull, U.; Sandner, H.

    1984-01-01

    Included are discussions of rates of heat transfer by conduction, the effects of varying and changing properties, thermal explosions, distributed heat sources, moving heat sources, and non-steady three-dimensional conduction processes. Throughout, the importance of thinking both numerically and symbolically is stressed, as this is essential to the development of the intuitive understanding of numerical values needed for successful designing. Extensive tables of thermophysical properties, including thermal conductivity and diffusivity, are presented. Also included are exact and approximate solutions to many of the problems that arise in practical situations

  19. Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

    2015-03-01

    The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

  20. The Mental Vulnerability Questionnaire: a psychometric evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eplov, Lene Falgaard; Petersen, Janne; Jørgensen, Torben

    2010-01-01

    The Mental Vulnerability Questionnaire was originally a 22 item scale, later reduced to a 12 item scale. In population studies the 12 item scale has been a significant predictor of health and illness. The scale has not been psychometrically evaluated for more than 30 years, and the aim of the pre......The Mental Vulnerability Questionnaire was originally a 22 item scale, later reduced to a 12 item scale. In population studies the 12 item scale has been a significant predictor of health and illness. The scale has not been psychometrically evaluated for more than 30 years, and the aim...... 0.30 for the 12 and the 22 item scales. All five Mental Vulnerability scales had positively skewed score distributions which were associated significantly with both SCL-90-R symptom scores and NEO-PI-R personality scales (primarily Neuroticism and Extraversion). Coefficient alpha was highest...

  1. Mental vulnerability and survival after cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nakaya, Naoki; Bidstrup, Pernille E; Eplov, Lene F

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It has been hypothesized that personality traits affect survival after cancer, but studies have produced inconsistent results. This study examined the association between mental vulnerability and survival after cancer in Denmark in a prospective cohort study. METHODS: Between 1976...... and 2001, 12733 residents of Copenhagen completed a questionnaire eliciting information on a 12-item mental vulnerability scale, as well as various personal data. Follow-up in the Danish Cancer Registry until 2003 identified 884 incident cases of primary cancer, and follow-up for death from the date...... of cancer diagnosis until 2003 identified 382 deaths. Mental vulnerability scores were divided into 4 approximately equal-sized groups. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Multivariate HR for all-cause mortality for persons...

  2. Reflexivity and vulnerability in collaborative knowledge production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Helle Nordentoft; Olesen, Birgitte Ravn

    -reports of positive learning outcomes and fails to illuminate how power is always at play leaving certain participants exposed and potentially vulnerable (Fenwick, 2008). As such, it remains unclear how power relations unfold in moment-by-moment interactions including how the researcher’s position matters...... because their voices are subjugated and they appear to be vulnerable. The extent of this development in the peer interactions and the reproductive nature of the knowledge produced were unexpected. In other words we – the researchers – became struck in the analytical process. In the final part of the paper......, we discuss how the reproduction of power relations invokes ethical concerns and raises critical perspectives on the undeniable common good of collaborative research in which participants’ vulnerability may be overlooked in potentially reflexive moments (Nordentoft and Kappel, 2011). Still, we find...

  3. A new approach to analyzing vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Callaghan, P.B.; Carlson, R.L.; Riedeman, G.W.

    1986-01-01

    The Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) has recently completed construction of the Fuel Cycle Plant (FCP) at Richland, Washington. At start-up the facility will fabricate driver fuel for the Fast Flux Test Facility in the Secure Automated Fabrication line. After construction completion, but before facility certification, the Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Operation Office requested that a vulnerability analysis be performed which assumed multiple insiders as a threat to the security system. A unique method of analyzing facility vulnerabilities was developed at the Security Applications Center (SAC), which is managed by WHC for DOE. The method that was developed verifies a previous vulnerability assessment, as well as introducing a modeling technique which analyzes security alarms in relation to delaying factors and possible insider activities. With this information it is possible to assess the relative strength or weakness of various possible routes to and from a target within a facility,

  4. Narcissistic grandiosity and narcissistic vulnerability in psychotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincus, Aaron L; Cain, Nicole M; Wright, Aidan G C

    2014-10-01

    This article briefly summarizes the empirical and clinical literature underlying a contemporary clinical model of pathological narcissism. Unlike the DSM Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD), this clinical model identifies and differentiates between two phenotypic themes of dysfunction-narcissistic grandiosity and narcissistic vulnerability-that can be expressed both overtly and covertly in patients' ways of thinking, feeling, behaving, and participating in treatment. Clinical recognition that narcissistic patients can and often do present for psychotherapy in vulnerable states of depression, anxiety, shame, and even suicidality increases the likelihood of accurate diagnosis and effective treatment planning. This article provides case examples derived from psychotherapies with narcissistic patients to demonstrate how narcissistic grandiosity and narcissistic vulnerability concurrently present in patients who seek treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Vulnerability and controllability of networks of networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Xueming; Peng, Hao; Gao, Jianxi

    2015-01-01

    Network science is a highly interdisciplinary field ranging from natural science to engineering technology and it has been applied to model complex systems and used to explain their behaviors. Most previous studies have been focus on isolated networks, but many real-world networks do in fact interact with and depend on other networks via dependency connectivities, forming “networks of networks” (NON). The interdependence between networks has been found to largely increase the vulnerability of interacting systems, when a node in one network fails, it usually causes dependent nodes in other networks to fail, which, in turn, may cause further damage on the first network and result in a cascade of failures with sometimes catastrophic consequences, e.g., electrical blackouts caused by the interdependence of power grids and communication networks. The vulnerability of a NON can be analyzed by percolation theory that can be used to predict the critical threshold where a NON collapses. We review here the analytic framework for analyzing the vulnerability of NON, which yields novel percolation laws for n-interdependent networks and also shows that percolation theory of a single network studied extensively in physics and mathematics in the last 50 years is a specific limited case of the more general case of n interacting networks. Understanding the mechanism behind the cascading failure in NON enables us finding methods to decrease the vulnerability of the natural systems and design of more robust infrastructure systems. By examining the vulnerability of NON under targeted attack and studying the real interdependent systems, we find two methods to decrease the systems vulnerability: (1) protect the high-degree nodes, and (2) increase the degree correlation between networks. Furthermore, the ultimate proof of our understanding of natural and technological systems is reflected in our ability to control them. We also review the recent studies and challenges on the

  6. High selection pressure promotes increase in cumulative adaptive culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolin Vegvari

    Full Text Available The evolution of cumulative adaptive culture has received widespread interest in recent years, especially the factors promoting its occurrence. Current evolutionary models suggest that an increase in population size may lead to an increase in cultural complexity via a higher rate of cultural transmission and innovation. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the role of natural selection in the evolution of cultural complexity. Here we use an agent-based simulation model to demonstrate that high selection pressure in the form of resource pressure promotes the accumulation of adaptive culture in spite of small population sizes and high innovation costs. We argue that the interaction of demography and selection is important, and that neither can be considered in isolation. We predict that an increase in cultural complexity is most likely to occur under conditions of population pressure relative to resource availability. Our model may help to explain why culture change can occur without major environmental change. We suggest that understanding the interaction between shifting selective pressures and demography is essential for explaining the evolution of cultural complexity.

  7. Cumulative sum quality control for calibrated breast density measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heine, John J.; Cao Ke; Beam, Craig

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Breast density is a significant breast cancer risk factor. Although various methods are used to estimate breast density, there is no standard measurement for this important factor. The authors are developing a breast density standardization method for use in full field digital mammography (FFDM). The approach calibrates for interpatient acquisition technique differences. The calibration produces a normalized breast density pixel value scale. The method relies on first generating a baseline (BL) calibration dataset, which required extensive phantom imaging. Standardizing prospective mammograms with calibration data generated in the past could introduce unanticipated error in the standardized output if the calibration dataset is no longer valid. Methods: Sample points from the BL calibration dataset were imaged approximately biweekly over an extended timeframe. These serial samples were used to evaluate the BL dataset reproducibility and quantify the serial calibration accuracy. The cumulative sum (Cusum) quality control method was used to evaluate the serial sampling. Results: There is considerable drift in the serial sample points from the BL calibration dataset that is x-ray beam dependent. Systematic deviation from the BL dataset caused significant calibration errors. This system drift was not captured with routine system quality control measures. Cusum analysis indicated that the drift is a sign of system wear and eventual x-ray tube failure. Conclusions: The BL calibration dataset must be monitored and periodically updated, when necessary, to account for sustained system variations to maintain the calibration accuracy.

  8. Cumulative sum quality control for calibrated breast density measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heine, John J.; Cao Ke; Beam, Craig [Cancer Prevention and Control Division, Moffitt Cancer Center, 12902 Magnolia Drive, Tampa, Florida 33612 (United States); Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, 1603 W. Taylor St., Chicago, Illinois 60612 (United States)

    2009-12-15

    Purpose: Breast density is a significant breast cancer risk factor. Although various methods are used to estimate breast density, there is no standard measurement for this important factor. The authors are developing a breast density standardization method for use in full field digital mammography (FFDM). The approach calibrates for interpatient acquisition technique differences. The calibration produces a normalized breast density pixel value scale. The method relies on first generating a baseline (BL) calibration dataset, which required extensive phantom imaging. Standardizing prospective mammograms with calibration data generated in the past could introduce unanticipated error in the standardized output if the calibration dataset is no longer valid. Methods: Sample points from the BL calibration dataset were imaged approximately biweekly over an extended timeframe. These serial samples were used to evaluate the BL dataset reproducibility and quantify the serial calibration accuracy. The cumulative sum (Cusum) quality control method was used to evaluate the serial sampling. Results: There is considerable drift in the serial sample points from the BL calibration dataset that is x-ray beam dependent. Systematic deviation from the BL dataset caused significant calibration errors. This system drift was not captured with routine system quality control measures. Cusum analysis indicated that the drift is a sign of system wear and eventual x-ray tube failure. Conclusions: The BL calibration dataset must be monitored and periodically updated, when necessary, to account for sustained system variations to maintain the calibration accuracy.

  9. Nonimmunogenic hyperthyroidism: Cumulative hypothyroidism incidence after radioiodine and surgical treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinser, J.A.; Roesler, H.; Furrer, T.; Gruetter, D.Z.; Zimmermann, H.

    1989-01-01

    During 1977, 246 hyperthyroid patients were seen in our departments, 140 (57%) with nonimmunogenic hyperthyroidism (NIH)--101 with a toxic adenoma (TA) and 39 with multifocal functional autonomy (MFA). All patients but one could be followed over 9 yr, 101 after 131I treatment (RIT), another 29 after surgery (S). Ten patients were left untreated. Thirty-four treated (24%) patients died, none as a result of thyroid or post-treatment complications. There was no hyperthyroidism later than 9 mo after therapy. Only 1% (RIT) and 24% (S) were hypothyroid 1 yr after treatment. But 19% of all treated NIH patients were hypothyroid after 9 yr or at the time of their death, 12% after RIT and 41% after S. The cumulative hypothyroidism incidences 1.4%/yr for RIT and 2.2%/yr for S, were not significantly different. Out of the five survivers without RIT or S, two TA patients were hypothyroid. The effect of RIT on goiter related loco-regional complications was not worse than after S. We conclude that RIT is the treatment for NIH, leaving surgery for exceptional cases

  10. Cumulative biological impacts of The Geysers geothermal development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brownell, J.A.

    1981-10-01

    The cumulative nature of current and potential future biological impacts from full geothermal development in the steam-dominated portion of The Geysers-Calistoga KGRA are identified by the California Energy Commission staff. Vegetation, wildlife, and aquatic resources information have been reviewed and evaluated. Impacts and their significance are discussed and staff recommendations presented. Development of 3000 MW of electrical energy will result in direct vegetation losses of 2790 acres, based on an estimate of 11.5% loss per lease-hold of 0.93 acres/MW. If unmitigated, losses will be greater. Indirect vegetation losses and damage occur from steam emissions which contain elements (particularly boron) toxic to vegetation. Other potential impacts include chronic low-level boron exposure, acid rain, local climate modification, and mechanical damage. A potential exists for significant reduction and changes in wildlife from direct habitat loss and development influences. Highly erosive soils create the potential for significant reduction of aquatic resources, particularly game fish. Toxic spills have caused some temporary losses of aquatic species. Staff recommends monitoring and implementation of mitigation measures at all geothermal development stages.

  11. Estimation of Cumulative Absolute Velocity using Empirical Green's Function Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Dong Hee; Yun, Kwan Hee; Chang, Chun Joong; Park, Se Moon

    2009-01-01

    In recognition of the needs to develop a new criterion for determining when the OBE (Operating Basis Earthquake) has been exceeded at nuclear power plants, Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV) was introduced by EPRI. The concept of CAV is the area accumulation with the values more than 0.025g occurred during every one second. The equation of the CAV is as follows. CAV = ∫ 0 max |a(t)|dt (1) t max = duration of record, a(t) = acceleration (>0.025g) Currently, the OBE exceedance criteria in Korea is Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA, PGA>0.1g). When Odesan earthquake (M L =4.8, January 20th, 2007) and Gyeongju earthquake (M L =3.4, June 2nd, 1999) were occurred, we have had already experiences of PGA greater than 0.1g that did not even cause any damage to the poorly-designed structures nearby. This moderate earthquake has motivated Korea to begin the use of the CAV for OBE exceedance criteria for NPPs. Because the present OBE level has proved itself to be a poor indicator for small-to-moderate earthquakes, for which the low OBE level can cause an inappropriate shut down the plant. A more serious possibility is that this scenario will become a reality at a very high level. Empirical Green's Function method was a simulation technique which can estimate the CAV value and it is hereby introduced

  12. Cumulative causation, market transition, and emigration from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Zai; Chunyu, Miao David; Zhuang, Guotu; Ye, Wenzhen

    2008-11-01

    This article reports findings from a recent survey of international migration from China's Fujian Province to the United States. Using the ethnosurvey approach developed in the Mexican Migration Project, the authors conducted surveys in migrant-sending communities in China as well as in destination communities in New York City. Hypotheses are derived from the international migration literature and the market transition debate. The results are generally consistent with hypotheses derived from cumulative causation of migration; however, geographical location creates some differences in migration patterns to the United States. In China as in Mexico, the existence of migration networks increases the propensity of migration for others in the community. In contrast to the Mexican case, among Chinese immigrants, having a previously migrated household member increases the propensity of other household members to migrate only after the debt for previous migration is paid off. In step with market transition theory, the authors also find that political power influences the migration experience from the coastal Fujian Province.

  13. Correlated stopping, proton clusters and higher order proton cumulants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bzdak, Adam [AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Physics and Applied Computer Science, Krakow (Poland); Koch, Volker [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Nuclear Science Division, Berkeley, CA (United States); Skokov, Vladimir [RIKEN/BNL, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY (United States)

    2017-05-15

    We investigate possible effects of correlations between stopped nucleons on higher order proton cumulants at low energy heavy-ion collisions. We find that fluctuations of the number of wounded nucleons N{sub part} lead to rather nontrivial dependence of the correlations on the centrality; however, this effect is too small to explain the large and positive four-proton correlations found in the preliminary data collected by the STAR collaboration at √(s) = 7.7 GeV. We further demonstrate that, by taking into account additional proton clustering, we are able to qualitatively reproduce the preliminary experimental data. We speculate that this clustering may originate either from collective/multi-collision stopping which is expected to be effective at lower energies or from a possible first-order phase transition, or from (attractive) final state interactions. To test these ideas we propose to measure a mixed multi-particle correlation between stopped protons and a produced particle (e.g. pion, antiproton). (orig.)

  14. Decision making generalized by a cumulative probability weighting function

    Science.gov (United States)

    dos Santos, Lindomar Soares; Destefano, Natália; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2018-01-01

    Typical examples of intertemporal decision making involve situations in which individuals must choose between a smaller reward, but more immediate, and a larger one, delivered later. Analogously, probabilistic decision making involves choices between options whose consequences differ in relation to their probability of receiving. In Economics, the expected utility theory (EUT) and the discounted utility theory (DUT) are traditionally accepted normative models for describing, respectively, probabilistic and intertemporal decision making. A large number of experiments confirmed that the linearity assumed by the EUT does not explain some observed behaviors, as nonlinear preference, risk-seeking and loss aversion. That observation led to the development of new theoretical models, called non-expected utility theories (NEUT), which include a nonlinear transformation of the probability scale. An essential feature of the so-called preference function of these theories is that the probabilities are transformed by decision weights by means of a (cumulative) probability weighting function, w(p) . We obtain in this article a generalized function for the probabilistic discount process. This function has as particular cases mathematical forms already consecrated in the literature, including discount models that consider effects of psychophysical perception. We also propose a new generalized function for the functional form of w. The limiting cases of this function encompass some parametric forms already proposed in the literature. Far beyond a mere generalization, our function allows the interpretation of probabilistic decision making theories based on the assumption that individuals behave similarly in the face of probabilities and delays and is supported by phenomenological models.

  15. New tests of cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Birnbaum

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Previous tests of cumulative prospect theory (CPT and of the priority heuristic (PH found evidence contradicting these two models of risky decision making. However, those tests were criticized because they had characteristics that might ``trigger'' use of other heuristics. This paper presents new tests that avoid those characteristics. Expected values of the gambles are nearly equal in each choice. In addition, if a person followed expected value (EV, expected utility (EU, CPT, or PH in these tests, she would shift her preferences in the same direction as shifts in EV or EU. In contrast, the transfer of attention exchange model (TAX and a similarity model predict that people will reverse preferences in the opposite direction. Results contradict the PH, even when PH is modified to include a preliminary similarity evaluation using the PH parameters. New tests of probability-consequence interaction were also conducted. Strong interactions were observed, contrary to PH. These results add to the growing bodies of evidence showing that neither CPT nor PH is an accurate description of risky decision making.

  16. INTERACTIVE VISUALIZATION OF PROBABILITY AND CUMULATIVE DENSITY FUNCTIONS

    KAUST Repository

    Potter, Kristin; Kirby, Robert Michael; Xiu, Dongbin; Johnson, Chris R.

    2012-01-01

    The probability density function (PDF), and its corresponding cumulative density function (CDF), provide direct statistical insight into the characterization of a random process or field. Typically displayed as a histogram, one can infer probabilities of the occurrence of particular events. When examining a field over some two-dimensional domain in which at each point a PDF of the function values is available, it is challenging to assess the global (stochastic) features present within the field. In this paper, we present a visualization system that allows the user to examine two-dimensional data sets in which PDF (or CDF) information is available at any position within the domain. The tool provides a contour display showing the normed difference between the PDFs and an ansatz PDF selected by the user and, furthermore, allows the user to interactively examine the PDF at any particular position. Canonical examples of the tool are provided to help guide the reader into the mapping of stochastic information to visual cues along with a description of the use of the tool for examining data generated from an uncertainty quantification exercise accomplished within the field of electrophysiology.

  17. Model-checking techniques based on cumulative residuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, D Y; Wei, L J; Ying, Z

    2002-03-01

    Residuals have long been used for graphical and numerical examinations of the adequacy of regression models. Conventional residual analysis based on the plots of raw residuals or their smoothed curves is highly subjective, whereas most numerical goodness-of-fit tests provide little information about the nature of model misspecification. In this paper, we develop objective and informative model-checking techniques by taking the cumulative sums of residuals over certain coordinates (e.g., covariates or fitted values) or by considering some related aggregates of residuals, such as moving sums and moving averages. For a variety of statistical models and data structures, including generalized linear models with independent or dependent observations, the distributions of these stochastic processes tinder the assumed model can be approximated by the distributions of certain zero-mean Gaussian processes whose realizations can be easily generated by computer simulation. Each observed process can then be compared, both graphically and numerically, with a number of realizations from the Gaussian process. Such comparisons enable one to assess objectively whether a trend seen in a residual plot reflects model misspecification or natural variation. The proposed techniques are particularly useful in checking the functional form of a covariate and the link function. Illustrations with several medical studies are provided.

  18. Cumulative damage fraction design approach for LMFBR metallic fuel elements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, D.L.; Einziger, R.E.; Huchman, G.D.

    1979-01-01

    The cumulative damage fraction (CDF) analytical technique is currently being used to analyze the performance of metallic fuel elements for proliferation-resistant LMFBRs. In this technique, the fraction of the total time to rupture of the cladding is calculated as a function of the thermal, stress, and neutronic history. Cladding breach or rupture is implied by CDF = 1. Cladding wastage, caused by interactions with both the fuel and sodium coolant, is assumed to uniformly thin the cladding wall. The irradiation experience of the EBR-II Mark-II driver fuel with solution-annealed Type 316 stainless steel cladding provides an excellent data base for testing the applicability of the CDF technique to metallic fuel. The advanced metal fuels being considered for use in LMFBRs are U-15-Pu-10Zr, Th-20Pu and Th-2OU (compositions are given in weight percent). The two cladding alloys being considered are Type 316 stainless steel and a titanium-stabilized Type 316 stainless steel. Both are in the cold-worked condition. The CDF technique was applied to these fuels and claddings under the assumed steady-state operating conditions

  19. Cumulative exposure to carbon monoxide during the day

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joumard, R. (INRETS, 69 - Bron (FR))

    The carbon monoxide, CO, has the advantage of being very easily and accurately measured under various conditions. In addition, it allows the translation of CO concentrations into their biological effects. The cumulative CO exposure should be considered according to current environment conditions during a given period of life, e.g. the day. In addition, the translation of concentrations and exposure times of CO fixed on blood haemoglobine (carboxyhaemoglobine) depends on physiological factors such as age, size, sex, or physical activity. This paper gives some examples of CO exposure translated into curves of carboxyhaemoglobine: case of 92 persons whose schedule was studied in details, of customs officers whose exposure was measured during one week, or other theoretical cases. In all the cases studied, smoking is by far the first factor of pollution by carbon monoxide. If not considering this case, the CO contents observed are preoccupying for sensitive subjects (in particular children) only in very rare cases. Furthermore, this approach allows the assessment of maximal allowable concentrations during specific exposures (work, e.g. in a tunnel) by integrating them into normal life conditions and population current exposure.

  20. Assessment of Chemical and Radiological Vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SETH, S.S.

    2000-01-01

    Following the May 14, 1997 chemical explosion at Hanford's Plutonium Reclamation Facility, the Department of Energy Richland Operations Office and its prime contractor, Fluor Hanford, Inc., completed an extensive assessment to identify and address chemical and radiological safety vulnerabilities at all facilities under the Project Hanford Management Contract. This was a challenging undertaking because of the immense size of the problem, unique technical issues, and competing priorities. This paper focuses on the assessment process, including the criteria and methodology for data collection, evaluation, and risk-based scoring. It does not provide details on the facility-specific results and corrective actions, but discusses the approach taken to address the identified vulnerabilities

  1. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

  2. Urban Vulnerability and Climate Change in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urbanisation and climate change are among the major challenges for sustainable development in Africa. The overall aim of this book is to present innovative approaches to vulnerability analysis and for enhancing the resilience of African cities against climate change-induced risks. Locally adapted...... explores the role of governance in successfully coping with climate-induced risks in urban areas. The book is unique in that it combines: a top-down perspective of climate change modeling with a bottom-up perspective of vulnerability assessment; quantitative approaches from engineering sciences...

  3. The right to health care and vulnerability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Carlos Loureiro

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The article seeks to clarify the concept of vulnerability, by taking structural and epochal frailty into account. To understand the right to health care, the author reflects about the fundamental goods, and he then examines how that same right is present in the Portuguese and the Spanish constitutions. The association between vulnerability and the law is also tackled, with a special reference –in dialogue with Herbert Hart– to its fundamental level and to other links between both terms in the field of health. The article closes with a few remarks on posthumanist attempts at saying goodbye to human frailty.

  4. Analyzing driving forces behind changes in energy vulnerability of Spanish electricity generation through a Divisia index-based method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernández González, P.; Moreno, B.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose and develop the LMDI approach to factorize changes in electricity bill vulnerability. • Spanish vulnerability (1995–2011) markedly grew mainly by increasing gas dependence. • Fuel price increase and growing importance of electricity damage energy security. • Energy intensity advances & fuel diversification: insufficient to drive vulnerability. • Main recommendation: enhance internal energy market and common external EU strategy. - Abstract: High energy dependence on fossil raises vulnerability concerns about security of supply and energy cost. This research examines the impact of high dependence of imported fuels for power generation in Spain through the quantification and analysis of the driving forces behind the change in its electricity bill. Following logarithmic mean Divisia indexes approach, we present and perform a new method that enables a complete decomposition of changes in electricity vulnerability into contributions from several drivers. In fact, we identify five predefined factors behind the variations in vulnerability in Spain during the 1998–2011 period: fuel price, average heat rate, fuel dependence, degree of electricity importance and energy intensity. The application of this approach reveals a significant increase in Spanish vulnerability in the last two decades, promoted by increments in fuel price and importance of electricity over the primary energy consumption, but especially by increasing fuel dependence (particularly gas dependence). Therefore, findings mainly advocate for those strategies aimed at reducing Spanish energy dependence. Also those improving thermal efficiency and energy intensity are indicated

  5. Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

    2017-11-01

    Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

  6. District heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, L.

    1993-01-01

    The environmental risks and uncertainties of a high-energy future are disturbing and give rise to several reservations concerning the use of fossil fuels. A number of technologies will help to reduce atmospheric pollution. In Denmark special importance is attached to the following: Energy conservation. Efficient energy conversion. Renewable energy sources. District heating, combined production of heat and power. Many agree that district heating (DH), produced by the traditional heat-only plant, and combined heat and power (CHP) have enormous potential when considering thermal efficiency and lowered environmental impacts: The basic technology of each is proven, it would be relatively simple to satisfy a substantial part of the energy demand, and their high efficiencies mean reduced pollution including greenhouse gas emissions. This is especially important in high population density areas - the obviously preferred sites for such energy generation. Compared with individual heating DH can provide a community with an operationally efficient and most often also an economically competitive heat supply. This is particularly true under the circumstances where the DH system is supplied from CHP plants. Their use results in very substantial improvements in overall efficiency. Further environmental improvements arise from the reduced air pollution obtainable in reasonably large CHP plants equipped with flue gas cleaning to remove particles, sulphur dioxide, and nitrogen acids. As a consequence of these considerations, DH plays an important role in fulfilling the space and water heating demand in many countries. This is especially the case in Denmark where this technology is utilised to a very great extent. Indeed, DH is one of the reasons why Denmark has relatively good air quality in the cities. (au)

  7. Cumulative incidence, distribution, and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure in Nepal: results from the living standards survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, Mamata; Ayer, Rakesh; Kondo, Masahide

    2018-02-14

    Nepal has committed to the global community to achieve universal health coverage by 2030. Nevertheless, Nepal still has a high proportion of out-of-pocket health payment and a limited risk-pooling mechanism. Out-of-pocket payment for the healthcare services could result in catastrophic health expenditure (CHE). Evidence is required to effectively channel the efforts to lower those expenses in order to achieve universal health coverage. However, little is known about CHE and its determinants in a broad national context in Nepal. Therefore, this study was conducted to explore the cumulative incidence, distribution, and determinants of CHE in Nepal. Data were obtained from the nationally representative survey, the Nepal Living Standards Survey-third undertaken in 2010/11. Information from 5988 households was used for the analyses. Households were classified as having CHE when their out-of-pocket health payment was greater than or equal to 40% of their capacity to pay. Remaining households were classified as not having CHE. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify determinants of CHE. Based on household-weighted sample, the cumulative incidence of CHE was 10.3% per month in Nepal. This incidence was concentrated in the far-western region and households in the poorer expenditure quartiles. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that households were more likely to face CHE if they; consisted of chronically ill member(s), have a higher burden of acute illness and injuries, have elderly (≥60 years) member(s), belonged to the poor expenditure quartile, and were located in the far-western region. In contrast, households were less likely to incur CHE when their household head was educated. Having children (≤5 years) in households did not significantly affect catastrophic health expenditure. This study identified a high cumulative incidence of CHE. CHE was disproportionately concentrated in the poor households and households located in the far

  8. Self-similarity of high-pT hadron production in cumulative processes and violation of discrete symmetries at small scales (suggestion for experiment)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokarev, M.V.; Zborovsky, I.

    2009-01-01

    The hypothesis of self-similarity of hadron production in relativistic heavy ion collisions for search for phase transition in a nuclear matter is discussed. It is offered to use the established features of z-scaling for revealing signatures of new physics in cumulative region. It is noted that selection of events on centrality in cumulative region could help to localize a position of a critical point. Change of parameters of the theory (a specific heat and fractal dimensions) near to a critical point is considered as a signature of new physics. The relation of the power asymptotic of ψ(z) at high z, anisotropy of momentum space due to spontaneous symmetry breaking, and discrete (C, P, T) symmetries is emphasized

  9. Chemical Safety Vulnerability Working Group Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-09-01

    This report marks the culmination of a 4-month review conducted to identify chemical safety vulnerabilities existing at DOE facilities. This review is an integral part of DOE's efforts to raise its commitment to chemical safety to the same level as that for nuclear safety.

  10. Oil Vulnerabilities and United States Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-02-08

    Mazda, Mercedes - Benz , Ford, Mercury, and Nissan offer flexible fuel vehicles in the United States. Ethanol is currently produced in the United States...USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT OIL VULNERABILITIES AND UNITED STATES STRATEGY by Colonel Shawn P. Walsh...Colleges and Schools, 3624 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104, (215) 662-5606. The Commission on Higher Education is an institutional accrediting

  11. Retrieval from Memory: Vulnerable or Inviolable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Dylan M.; Marsh, John E.; Hughes, Robert W.

    2012-01-01

    We show that retrieval from semantic memory is vulnerable even to the mere presence of speech. Irrelevant speech impairs semantic fluency--namely, lexical retrieval cued by a semantic category name--but only if it is meaningful (forward speech compared to reversed speech or words compared to nonwords). Moreover, speech related semantically to the…

  12. Food fraud vulnerability and its key factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruth, van Saskia M.; Huisman, Wim; Luning, Pieternel A.

    2017-01-01

    Background Food fraud prevention and fraud vulnerability reduction are the first steps to combat food fraud and require a recurrent effort throughout the food supply chain. Due to the intentional nature of fraud, it requires different tactics than the common food safety approaches. However,

  13. Web vulnerability study of online pharmacy sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, Joanne

    2011-01-01

    Consumers are increasingly using online pharmacies, but these sites may not provide an adequate level of security with the consumers' personal data. There is a gap in this research addressing the problems of security vulnerabilities in this industry. The objective is to identify the level of web application security vulnerabilities in online pharmacies and the common types of flaws, thus expanding on prior studies. Technical, managerial and legal recommendations on how to mitigate security issues are presented. The proposed four-step method first consists of choosing an online testing tool. The next steps involve choosing a list of 60 online pharmacy sites to test, and then running the software analysis to compile a list of flaws. Finally, an in-depth analysis is performed on the types of web application vulnerabilities. The majority of sites had serious vulnerabilities, with the majority of flaws being cross-site scripting or old versions of software that have not been updated. A method is proposed for the securing of web pharmacy sites, using a multi-phased approach of technical and managerial techniques together with a thorough understanding of national legal requirements for securing systems.

  14. Vulnerability and Knowledge of Sexually Transmitted Infections ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Vulnerability and Knowledge of Sexually Transmitted Infections Among Female Traders of Reproductive Age in Enugu, Nigeria. ... Conclusion: The inclusion of health education in schools' curricula to ensure that adolescents are adequately aware of STIs, their modes of transmission, prevention and treatment before ...

  15. Development on Vulnerability Assessment Methods of PPS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MIAO; Qiang; ZHANG; Wen-liang; BU; Li-xin; YIN; Hong-he; LI; Xin-jun; FANG; Xin

    2013-01-01

    Through investigating information from domestic and abroad,joint the domestic assessment experience,we present a set of physical protection system(PPS)vulnerability assessment methods for on-operating nuclear power plants and for on-designing nuclear facilities.The methods will help to strengthen and upgrade the security measures of the nuclear facilities,improve the effectiveness and

  16. Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, T. R.; Townshend, I.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S. A.

    2013-12-01

    While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change may have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. This research operationalizes the IPCC's definition of vulnerability in a sub-national assessment to understand how different factors that shape vulnerability to climate change vary spatially across rural Nicaragua. The research utilizes the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO UN) CropWat model to evaluate how the annual yield of two of Nicaragua's staple crops may change under projected changes in temperature and precipitation. This analysis of agricultural sensitivity under exposure to climate change is then overlain with an indicator-based assessment of adaptive capacity in rural Nicaraguan farming households. Adaptive capacity was evaluated using household survey data from the 2001 National Household Survey on Living Standards Measurement, which was provided to us by the FAO UN. The result is a map representing current vulnerability to future climate change, and can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua.

  17. AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    victoria

    climate change in eight selected rural settlements in Sokoto State, Nigeria adopting the ... on the environmental and socio-economic determinants of agricultural vulnerability to .... global warming show increasing trends in Sokoto. .... One of the consequences of desertification is southward migration of nomads to the more.

  18. Care and housing for vulnerable elderly

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.M.Y. de Klerk

    2004-01-01

    Original title: Zorg en wonen voor kwetsbare ouderen. There is a general belief that old age automatically brings infirmities, though this is by no means always the case. This edition of the Report on the Elderly investigates which elderly people are vulnerable. They include older persons

  19. Using Fuzz Testing for Searching Software Vulnerabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Leonidovich Kozirsky

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with fuzz testing (fuzzing, a software testing and vulnerability searching technique based on providing inputs of programs with random data and further analysis of their behavior. The basics of implementing cmdline argument fuzzer, environment variable fuzzer and syscall fuzzer in any UNIX-like OS have been closely investigated.

  20. Configuration Fuzzing for Software Vulnerability Detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Huning; Murphy, Christian; Kaiser, Gail

    2010-02-15

    Many software security vulnerabilities only reveal themselves under certain conditions, i.e., particular configurations of the software together with its particular runtime environment. One approach to detecting these vulnerabilities is fuzz testing, which feeds a range of randomly modified inputs to a software application while monitoring it for failures. However, typical fuzz testing makes no guarantees regarding the syntactic and semantic validity of the input, or of how much of the input space will be explored. To address these problems, in this paper we present a new testing methodology called configuration fuzzing. Configuration fuzzing is a technique whereby the configuration of the running application is randomly modified at certain execution points, in order to check for vulnerabilities that only arise in certain conditions. As the application runs in the deployment environment, this testing technique continuously fuzzes the configuration and checks "security invariants" that, if violated, indicate a vulnerability; however, the fuzzing is performed in a duplicated copy of the original process, so that it does not affect the state of the running application. In addition to discussing the approach and describing a prototype framework for implementation, we also present the results of a case study to demonstrate the approach's efficiency.