WorldWideScience

Sample records for cumulative exposure estimates

  1. Variability of exposure and estimation of cumulative exposure in a manually operated coal mine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mamuya, S.H.D.; Bratveit, M.; Mwaiselage, J.; Moen, B.E. [University of Bergen, Bergen (Norway). Center for International Health

    2006-10-15

    This study aims at estimating variability in exposure to respirable dust and assessing whether the a priori grouping by job team is appropriate for an exposure-response study on respiratory effects among workers in a manually operated coal mine in Tanzania. Furthermore, estimated exposure levels were used to calculate cumulative exposure. Full-shift personal respirable dust samples (n = 204) were collected from 141 randomly chosen workers at underground and surface work sites. The geometric mean exposure for respirable dust varied from 0.07 mg m{sup -3} for office workers to 1.96 mg m{sup -3} for the development team. The analogous range of respirable quartz exposure was 0.006-0.073 mg m{sup -3}. Variance components were estimated using random effect models. For most job teams the within-worker variance component was considerably higher than the between-worker variance component. For respirable dust the estimated attenuation of the linear exposure-response relationship was low (5.9%) when grouping by job team. Grouping by job team was considered appropriate for studying the association between current dust exposure and respiratory effects. Based on the estimated worker-specific mean exposure in the job teams, the arithmetic mean cumulative exposure for the 299 workers who participated in the epidemiological part of the study was 38.1 mg. yr m{sup -3} for respirable dust and 2.0 mg. yr m{sup -3} for quartz.

  2. Evaluation of cumulative PCB exposure estimated by a job exposure matrix versus PCB serum concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopf, Nancy B; Ruder, Avima M; Succop, Paul; Waters, Martha A

    2014-05-01

    Although polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been banned in many countries for more than three decades, exposures to PCBs continue to be of concern due to their long half-lives and carcinogenic effects. In National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health studies, we are using semiquantitative plant-specific job exposure matrices (JEMs) to estimate historical PCB exposures for workers (n = 24,865) exposed to PCBs from 1938 to 1978 at three capacitor manufacturing plants. A subcohort of these workers (n = 410) employed in two of these plants had serum PCB concentrations measured at up to four times between 1976 and 1989. Our objectives were to evaluate the strength of association between an individual worker's measured serum PCB levels and the same worker's cumulative exposure estimated through 1977 with the (1) JEM and (2) duration of employment, and to calculate the explained variance the JEM provides for serum PCB levels using (3) simple linear regression. Consistent strong and statistically significant associations were observed between the cumulative exposures estimated with the JEM and serum PCB concentrations for all years. The strength of association between duration of employment and serum PCBs was good for highly chlorinated (Aroclor 1254/HPCB) but not less chlorinated (Aroclor 1242/LPCB) PCBs. In the simple regression models, cumulative occupational exposure estimated using the JEMs explained 14-24% of the variance of the Aroclor 1242/LPCB and 22-39% for Aroclor 1254/HPCB serum concentrations. We regard the cumulative exposure estimated with the JEM as a better estimate of PCB body burdens than serum concentrations quantified as Aroclor 1242/LPCB and Aroclor 1254/HPCB.

  3. Estimation of cumulative exposures to naphtha at an automobile fuel-injector manufacturing plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocskay, A Z; Robins, T G; Echeverria, D; Schork, M A; Seixas, N S; White, R F; Proctor, S P

    1993-09-01

    As part of an epidemiologic study of neuropsychological and renal effects of occupational exposure to organic solvents, estimates of cumulative exposure to naphtha were derived for workers at an automobile fuel-injector manufacturing plant. The approach to exposure estimation was relatively unusual in three respects: (1) a marked association between indoor naphtha air concentration and outdoor temperature was modeled and applied to detailed historical temperature data to calculate cumulative exposure estimates; (2) the large number of investigator-generated air samples allowed the use of analyses of variance to compare alternative job-grouping schemes; and (3) the young age of the plant and few process changes allowed for historical exposure estimates with a high degree of confidence. The derived estimates of cumulative exposure appear to offer a firm basis for epidemiologic analyses of exposure-health outcome relationships.

  4. Estimation of individual cumulative ultraviolet exposure using a geographically-adjusted, openly-accessible tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Gefei A; Raber, Inbar; Sakshuwong, Sukolsak; Li, Shufeng; Li, Angela S; Tan, Caroline; Chang, Anne Lynn S

    2016-01-20

    Estimates of an individual's cumulative ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure can be useful since ultraviolet radiation exposure increases skin cancer risk, but a comprehensive tool that is practical for use in the clinic does not currently exist. The objective of this study is to develop a geographically-adjusted tool to systematically estimate an individual's self-reported cumulative UV radiation exposure, investigate the association of these estimates with skin cancer diagnosis, and assess test reliability. A 12-item online questionnaire from validated survey items for UV exposure and skin cancer was administered to online volunteers across the United States and results cross-referenced with UV radiation indices. Cumulative UV exposure scores (CUES) were calculated and correlated with personal history of skin cancer in a case-control design. Reliability was assessed in a separate convenience sample. 1,118 responses were included in the overall sample; the mean age of respondents was 46 (standard deviation 15, range 18 - 81) and 150 (13 %) reported a history of skin cancer. In bivariate analysis of 1:2 age-matched cases (n = 149) and controls (n = 298), skin cancer cases were associated with (1) greater CUES prior to first skin cancer diagnosis than controls without skin cancer history (242,074 vs. 205,379, p = 0.003) and (2) less engagement in UV protective behaviors (p analysis of age-matched data, individuals with CUES in the lowest quartile were less likely to develop skin cancer compared to those in the highest quartile. In reliability testing among 19 volunteers, the 2-week intra-class correlation coefficient for CUES was 0.94. We have provided the programming code for this tool as well as the tool itself via open access. CUES is a useable and comprehensive tool to better estimate lifetime ultraviolet exposure, so that individuals with higher levels of exposure may be identified for counseling on photo-protective measures.

  5. EPA's SHEDS-multimedia model: children's cumulative pyrethroid exposure estimates and evaluation against NHANES biomarker data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jianping; Zartarian, Valerie; Tornero-Velez, Rogelio; Tulve, Nicolle S

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. EPA's SHEDS-Multimedia model was applied to enhance the understanding of children's exposures and doses to multiple pyrethroid pesticides, including major contributing chemicals and pathways. This paper presents combined dietary and residential exposure estimates and cumulative doses for seven commonly used pyrethroids, and comparisons of model evaluation results with NHANES biomarker data for 3-PBA and DCCA metabolites. Model input distributions were fit to publicly available pesticide usage survey data, NHANES, and other studies, then SHEDS-Multimedia was applied to estimate total pyrethroid exposures and doses for 3-5 year olds for one year variability simulations. For dose estimations we used a pharmacokinetic model and two approaches for simulating dermal absorption. SHEDS-Multimedia predictions compared well to NHANES biomarker data: ratios of 3-PBA observed data to SHEDS-Multimedia modeled results were 0.88, 0.51, 0.54 and 1.02 for mean, median, 95th, and 99th percentiles, respectively; for DCCA, the ratios were 0.82, 0.53, 0.56, and 0.94. Modeled time-averaged cumulative absorbed dose of the seven pyrethroids was 3.1 nmol/day (versus 8.4 nmol/day for adults) in the general population (residential pyrethroid use and non-use homes) and 6.7 nmol/day (versus 10.5 nmol/day for adults) in the simulated residential pyrethroid use population. For the general population, contributions to modeled cumulative dose by chemical were permethrin (60%), cypermethrin (22%), and cyfluthrin (16%); for residential use homes, contributions were cypermethrin (49%), permethrin (29%), and cyfluthrin (17%). The primary exposure route for 3-5 year olds in the simulated residential use population was non-dietary ingestion exposure; whereas for the simulated general population, dietary exposure was the primary exposure route. Below the 95th percentile, the major exposure pathway was dietary for the general population; non-dietary ingestion was the major pathway starting below

  6. EPA's SHEDS-multimedia model: children's cumulative pyrethroid exposure estimates and evaluation against NHANES biomarker data

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA's SHEDS-Multimedia model was applied to enhance the understanding of children's exposures and doses to multiple pyrethroid pesticides, including major contributing chemicals and pathways. This paper presents combined dietary and residential exposure estimates and cum...

  7. Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event response using structural cumulative survival models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, T.; Vansteelandt, S.; Tchetgen, E. J. Tchetgen;

    2016-01-01

    of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this paper, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi......-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies...

  8. Children's phthalate intakes and resultant cumulative exposures estimated from urine compared with estimates from dust ingestion, inhalation and dermal absorption in their homes and daycare centers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Bekö

    Full Text Available Total daily intakes of diethyl phthalate (DEP, di(n-butyl phthalate (DnBP, di(isobutyl phthalate (DiBP, butyl benzyl phthalate (BBzP and di(2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP were calculated from phthalate metabolite levels measured in the urine of 431 Danish children between 3 and 6 years of age. For each child the intake attributable to exposures in the indoor environment via dust ingestion, inhalation and dermal absorption were estimated from the phthalate levels in the dust collected from the child's home and daycare center. Based on the urine samples, DEHP had the highest total daily intake (median: 4.42 µg/d/kg-bw and BBzP the lowest (median: 0.49 µg/d/kg-bw. For DEP, DnBP and DiBP, exposures to air and dust in the indoor environment accounted for approximately 100%, 15% and 50% of the total intake, respectively, with dermal absorption from the gas-phase being the major exposure pathway. More than 90% of the total intake of BBzP and DEHP came from sources other than indoor air and dust. Daily intake of DnBP and DiBP from all exposure pathways, based on levels of metabolites in urine samples, exceeded the Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI for 22 and 23 children, respectively. Indoor exposures resulted in an average daily DiBP intake that exceeded the TDI for 14 children. Using the concept of relative cumulative Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI(cum, which is applicable for phthalates that have established TDIs based on the same health endpoint, we examined the cumulative total exposure to DnBP, DiBP and DEHP from all pathways; it exceeded the tolerable levels for 30% of the children. From the three indoor pathways alone, several children had a cumulative intake that exceeded TDI(cum. Exposures to phthalates present in the air and dust indoors meaningfully contribute to a child's total intake of certain phthalates. Such exposures, by themselves, may lead to intakes exceeding current limit values.

  9. Cumulative Estrogen Exposure and Prospective Memory in Older Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesson, Jacqueline

    2012-01-01

    This study looked at cumulative lifetime estrogen exposure, as estimated with a mathematical index (Index of Cumulative Estrogen Exposure (ICEE)) that included variables (length of time on estrogen therapy, age at menarche and menopause, postmenopausal body mass index, time since menopause, nulliparity and duration of breastfeeding) known to…

  10. Is cumulated pyrethroid exposure associated with prediabetes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Martin Rune; Jørs, Erik; Lander, Flemming;

    2014-01-01

    , cumulative exposure) was assessed from questionnaire data. Participants were asked about symptoms of diabetes. Blood samples were analyzed for glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), a measure of glucose regulation. No association was found between pyrethroid exposure and diabetes symptoms. The prevalence...

  11. Children's Phthalate Intakes and Resultant Cumulative Exposures Estimated from Urine Compared with Estimates from Dust Ingestion, Inhalation and Dermal Absorption in Their Homes and Daycare Centers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bekö, Gabriel; Weschler, Charles J; Langer, Sarka

    2013-01-01

    . For each child the intake attributable to exposures in the indoor environment via dust ingestion, inhalation and dermal absorption were estimated from the phthalate levels in the dust collected from the child's home and daycare center. Based on the urine samples, DEHP had the highest total daily intake...

  12. Maintenance hemodialysis patients have high cumulative radiation exposure.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kinsella, Sinead M

    2010-10-01

    Hemodialysis is associated with an increased risk of neoplasms which may result, at least in part, from exposure to ionizing radiation associated with frequent radiographic procedures. In order to estimate the average radiation exposure of those on hemodialysis, we conducted a retrospective study of 100 patients in a university-based dialysis unit followed for a median of 3.4 years. The number and type of radiological procedures were obtained from a central radiology database, and the cumulative effective radiation dose was calculated using standardized, procedure-specific radiation levels. The median annual radiation dose was 6.9 millisieverts (mSv) per patient-year. However, 14 patients had an annual cumulative effective radiation dose over 20 mSv, the upper averaged annual limit for occupational exposure. The median total cumulative effective radiation dose per patient over the study period was 21.7 mSv, in which 13 patients had a total cumulative effective radiation dose over 75 mSv, a value reported to be associated with a 7% increased risk of cancer-related mortality. Two-thirds of the total cumulative effective radiation dose was due to CT scanning. The average radiation exposure was significantly associated with the cause of end-stage renal disease, history of ischemic heart disease, transplant waitlist status, number of in-patient hospital days over follow-up, and death during the study period. These results highlight the substantial exposure to ionizing radiation in hemodialysis patients.

  13. Cumulative dietary exposure of the population of Denmark to pesticides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bodil Hamborg; Petersen, Annette; Nielsen, Elsa

    2015-01-01

    We used the Hazard Index (HI) method to carry out a cumulative risk assessment after chronic dietary exposure to all monitored pesticides in fruit, vegetables and cereals for various consumer groups in Denmark. Residue data for all the pesticides were obtained from the Danish monitoring programme...... that included processing factors and set non-detects to ½ LOR, but limited the correction (Model 3), gave the most realistic exposure estimate. With Model 3 the HI was calculated to be 0.44 for children and 0.18 for adults, indicating that there is no risk of adverse health effects following chronic cumulative...... exposure to the pesticides found in fruit, vegetables and cereals on the Danish market. The HI was below 1 even for consumers who eat more than 550 g of fruit and vegetables per day, corresponding to 1/3 of the population. Choosing Danish-produced commodities whenever possible could reduce the HI...

  14. Cumulative and current exposure to potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals and development of chronic kidney disease in HIV-positive individuals with a normal baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens D; Ross, Michael

    2016-01-01

    of exposure to antiretrovirals and the development of chronic kidney disease in people with initially normal renal function, as measured by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). METHODS: In this prospective international cohort study, HIV-positive adult participants (aged ≥16 years) from the D...

  15. Cumulative dietary exposure of the population of Denmark to pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Bodil Hamborg; Petersen, Annette; Nielsen, Elsa; Christensen, Tue; Poulsen, Mette Erecius; Andersen, Jens Hinge

    2015-09-01

    We used the Hazard Index (HI) method to carry out a cumulative risk assessment after chronic dietary exposure to all monitored pesticides in fruit, vegetables and cereals for various consumer groups in Denmark. Residue data for all the pesticides were obtained from the Danish monitoring programme during the period 2004-2011. Food consumption data were obtained from DANSDA (the DAnish National Survey of Diet and physical Activity) for the period 2005-2008. The calculations were made using three different models to cope with residues below the limit of reporting (LOR). We concluded that a model that included processing factors and set non-detects to ½ LOR, but limited the correction (Model 3), gave the most realistic exposure estimate. With Model 3 the HI was calculated to be 0.44 for children and 0.18 for adults, indicating that there is no risk of adverse health effects following chronic cumulative exposure to the pesticides found in fruit, vegetables and cereals on the Danish market. The HI was below 1 even for consumers who eat more than 550 g of fruit and vegetables per day, corresponding to 1/3 of the population. Choosing Danish-produced commodities whenever possible could reduce the HI by a factor of 2.

  16. Childhood Cumulative Risk Exposure and Adult Amygdala Volume and Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gary W; Swain, James E; King, Anthony P; Wang, Xin; Javanbakht, Arash; Ho, S Shaun; Angstadt, Michael; Phan, K Luan; Xie, Hong; Liberzon, Israel

    2016-06-01

    Considerable work indicates that early cumulative risk exposure is aversive to human development, but very little research has examined the neurological underpinnings of these robust findings. This study investigates amygdala volume and reactivity to facial stimuli among adults (mean 23.7 years of age, n = 54) as a function of cumulative risk exposure during childhood (9 and 13 years of age). In addition, we test to determine whether expected cumulative risk elevations in amygdala volume would mediate functional reactivity of the amygdala during socioemotional processing. Risks included substandard housing quality, noise, crowding, family turmoil, child separation from family, and violence. Total and left hemisphere adult amygdala volumes were positively related to cumulative risk exposure during childhood. The links between childhood cumulative risk exposure and elevated amygdala responses to emotionally neutral facial stimuli in adulthood were mediated by the corresponding amygdala volumes. Cumulative risk exposure in later adolescence (17 years of age), however, was unrelated to subsequent adult amygdala volume or function. Physical and socioemotional risk exposures early in life appear to alter amygdala development, rendering adults more reactive to ambiguous stimuli such as neutral faces. These stress-related differences in childhood amygdala development might contribute to the well-documented psychological distress as a function of early risk exposure.

  17. Relative Pesticide and Exposure Route Contribution to Aggregate and Cumulative Dose in Young Farmworker Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asa Bradman

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Child-Specific Aggregate Cumulative Human Exposure and Dose (CACHED framework integrates micro-level activity time series with mechanistic exposure equations, environmental concentration distributions, and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic components to estimate exposure for multiple routes and chemicals. CACHED was utilized to quantify cumulative and aggregate exposure and dose estimates for a population of young farmworker children and to evaluate the model for chlorpyrifos and diazinon. Micro-activities of farmworker children collected concurrently with residential measurements of pesticides were used in the CACHED framework to simulate 115,000 exposure scenarios and quantify cumulative and aggregate exposure and dose estimates. Modeled metabolite urine concentrations were not statistically different than concentrations measured in the urine of children, indicating that CACHED can provide realistic biomarker estimates. Analysis of the relative contribution of exposure route and pesticide indicates that in general, chlorpyrifos non-dietary ingestion exposure accounts for the largest dose, confirming the importance of the micro-activity approach. The risk metrics computed from the 115,000 simulations, indicate that greater than 95% of these scenarios might pose a risk to children’s health from aggregate chlorpyrifos exposure. The variability observed in the route and pesticide contributions to urine biomarker levels demonstrate the importance of accounting for aggregate and cumulative exposure in establishing pesticide residue tolerances in food.

  18. Cumulative asbestos exposure for US automobile mechanics involved in brake repair (circa 1950s-2000).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finley, Brent L; Richter, Richard O; Mowat, Fionna S; Mlynarek, Steve; Paustenbach, Dennis J; Warmerdam, John M; Sheehan, Patrick J

    2007-11-01

    We analyzed cumulative lifetime exposure to chrysotile asbestos experienced by brake mechanics in the US during the period 1950-2000. Using Monte Carlo methods, cumulative exposures were calculated using the distribution of 8-h time-weighted average exposure concentrations for brake mechanics and the distribution of job tenure data for automobile mechanics. The median estimated cumulative exposures for these mechanics, as predicted by three probabilistic models, ranged from 0.16 to 0.41 fibers per cubic centimeter (f/cm(3)) year for facilities with no dust-control procedures (1970s), and from 0.010 to 0.012 f/cm(3) year for those employing engineering controls (1980s). Upper-bound (95%) estimates for the 1970s and 1980s were 1.96 to 2.79 and 0.07-0.10 f/cm(3) year, respectively. These estimates for US brake mechanics are consistent with, but generally slightly lower than, those reported for European mechanics. The values are all substantially lower than the cumulative exposure of 4.5 f/cm(3) year associated with occupational exposure to 0.1 f/cm(3) of asbestos for 45 years that is currently permitted under the current occupational exposure limits in the US. Cumulative exposures were usually about 100- to 1,000-fold less than those of other occupational groups with asbestos exposure for similar time periods. The cumulative lifetime exposure estimates presented here, combined with the negative epidemiology data for brake mechanics, could be used to refine the risk assessments for chrysotile-exposed populations.

  19. Cumulative radiation exposure in children with cystic fibrosis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Reilly, R

    2010-02-01

    This retrospective study calculated the cumulative radiation dose for children with cystic fibrosis (CF) attending a tertiary CF centre. Information on 77 children with a mean age of 9.5 years, a follow up time of 658 person years and 1757 studies including 1485 chest radiographs, 215 abdominal radiographs and 57 computed tomography (CT) scans, of which 51 were thoracic CT scans, were analysed. The average cumulative radiation dose was 6.2 (0.04-25) mSv per CF patient. Cumulative radiation dose increased with increasing age and number of CT scans and was greater in children who presented with meconium ileus. No correlation was identified between cumulative radiation dose and either lung function or patient microbiology cultures. Radiation carries a risk of malignancy and children are particularly susceptible. Every effort must be made to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure in these patients whose life expectancy is increasing.

  20. Latino Mothers' Cumulative Food Insecurity Exposure and Child Body Composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Daphne C

    2016-01-01

    To document whether an intergenerational transmission of food insecurity is occurring by assessing low-income foreign-born Latino mothers' experiences with food insecurity as none, once (either childhood or adulthood) or twice (during both childhood and adulthood). Also the association between maternal cumulative food insecurity and children's body composition was examined. Maternal self-reported surveys on retrospective measures of food insecurity during childhood, current measures of food insecurity, and demographics were collected from Houston-area community centers (N = 96). Children's body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) were directly assessed. Covariate-adjusted logistic regression models analyzed the association between cumulative food insecurity experiences and children's body composition. Fifty-eight percent of mothers experienced food insecurity both as a child and as an adult and 31% of the mothers experienced food insecurity either as a child or adult. Maternal cumulative exposure to food insecurity was unrelated to BMI but was negatively related to elevated WC. Although an intergenerational transmission of food insecurity does exist, maternal cumulative exposure to food insecurity does not impact children's body composition negatively in the short term. Studying the long-term effects of cumulative food insecurity exposure can provide information for the development and timing of obesity interventions.

  1. Childhood poverty and health: cumulative risk exposure and stress dysregulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gary W; Kim, Pilyoung

    2007-11-01

    A massive literature documents the inverse association between poverty or low socioeconomic status and health, but little is known about the mechanisms underlying this robust relation. We examined longitudinal relations between duration of poverty exposure since birth, cumulative risk exposure, and physiological stress in two hundred seven 13-year-olds. Chronic stress was assessed by basal blood pressure and overnight cortisol levels; stress regulation was assessed by cardiovascular reactivity to a standard acute stressor and recovery after exposure to this stressor. Cumulative risk exposure was measured by multiple physical (e.g., substandard housing) and social (e.g., family turmoil) risk factors. The greater the number of years spent living in poverty, the more elevated was overnight cortisol and the more dysregulated was the cardiovascular response (i.e., muted reactivity). Cardiovascular recovery was not affected by duration of poverty exposure. Unlike the duration of poverty exposure, concurrent poverty (i.e., during adolescence) did not affect these physiological stress outcomes. The effects of childhood poverty on stress dysregulation are largely explained by cumulative risk exposure accompanying childhood poverty.

  2. Estimation of cumulative cadmium intake causing Itai-itai disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inaba, Takeya; Kobayashi, Etsuko; Suwazono, Yasushi; Uetani, Mirei; Oishi, Mitsuhiro; Nakagawa, Hideaki; Nogawa, Koji

    2005-11-15

    This study was undertaken to estimate the amount of cadmium (Cd) exposure needed for the development of Itai-itai disease. The investigated subjects comprised 82 Itai-itai disease patients and 11 persons requiring observation who were admitted in 1977 and 1978 for medical testing. With the period when the Itai-itai disease patients started to perceive leg/back pain defined as the 'mild disease onset', and the period when they experienced the most severe manifestations such as ambulatory disturbance and bone fractures defined as 'severe disease onset'. Relative cumulative person number distribution according to life time cadmium intake (LCD) at mild disease onset, severe disease onset, and time of death was depicted as an sigmoid curve and the establishment of probit regression lines was demonstrated between them. LCD at the time when mild disease onset and severe disease onset were recognized in half of the Itai-itai disease patients was 3.1 and 3.8 g, respectively. Furthermore, LCD at the time when mild disease onset and severe disease onset were recognized in 5% of the Itai-itai disease patients was calculated to be 2.6 and 3.3 g, respectively. The present results clarify that Itai-itai disease, the most severe stage of chronic Cd poisoning, occurs at levels of Cd consumption amounting to approximately three-fold of those currently seen in Japan.

  3. Testing of a cumulative and aggregate exposure model using biomonitoring studies and dietary records for Italian vineyard spray operators.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kennedy, M.C.; Glass, C.R.; Fustinoni, S.; Moretto, A.; Mandic-Rajcevic, S.; Riso, P.; Turrini, A.; Voet, van der H.; Hetmanski, M.T.; Fussel, R.J.; Klaveren, van J.D.

    2015-01-01

    The need for improved tools to estimate the cumulative and aggregate exposure to compounds such as plant protection products (PPPs) is recognised in the EU Regulation 1107/2009. A new model has been developed to estimate the exposure within a population to single compounds or compounds within a Cumu

  4. Exposure assessment of the cumulative intake of pesticides with dissimilar mode of action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bodil Hamborg; Petersen, Annette; Christiansen, Sofie

    Risk assessment of pesticides is currently based on the no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) for effects of single compounds. However, humans might be exposed to a mixture of pesticides at the same time and the exposure could occur from more pesticides with endocrine disrupting effects....... In this study the effects of combined exposure from four endocrine disrupting pesticides have been investigated (procymidone, mancozeb, tebuconazole, and prochloraz). The four pesticides have dissimilar mode of actions. On the background of the potency for each pesticide to a given effect, a relative potency...... factor and the cumulative acute exposure of the pesticides have been estimated....

  5. Cumulative dietary exposure to a selected group of pesticides of the triazole group in different European countries according to the EFSA guidance on probabilistic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boon, Polly E.; van Donkersgoed, Gerda; Christodoulou, Despo

    2015-01-01

    The practicality was examined of performing a cumulative dietary exposure assessment according to the requirements of the EFSA guidance on probabilistic modelling. For this the acute and chronic cumulative exposure to triazole pesticides was estimated using national food consumption and monitorin...

  6. In vivo measurements of lead-210 for assessing cumulative radon exposure in uranium miners

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guilmette, R.A.; Laurer, G.R. [New York Univ. Inst. of Environmental Medicine, Tuxedo, NY (United States); Lambert, W.E.; Gilliland, F.D. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-01

    It has long been recognized that a major contributor to the uncertainty in risk analysis of lung cancer in uranium and other hard rock miners is the estimation of total radon progeny exposure of individual miners under study. These uncertainties arise from the fact that only a limited number of measurements of airborne {sup 222}Rn progeny concentrations were made in the mines during the times that the miners were being exposed, and that dosimeters capable of integrating the Rn progeny exposures of the miners did not exist. Historically, the cumulative exposures for individual uranium and other hard rock miners have been calculated by combining the employee`s work history, which may or may not have included time spent at different jobs within the mines and at different locations within the mines, with whatever periodic measurements of Rn and Rn progeny were available. The amount and quality of the measurement data varied enormously from mine to mine and from population to population. Because the quality of the exposure data collected during the period of active mining in the United STates cannot now be altered substantially, significant improvement in individual miner exposure estimates is only likely to be achieved if a new cumulative exposure metric is developed and implemented. The decay chain of Rn includes the production of {sup 210}Pb, which can accumulate in the skeleton in amounts proportional to the intake of Rn progeny. We hypothesize that the in vivo measurement of {sup 210}Pb in the skulls of miners will provide such a metric. In summary, the primary purpose of this pilot study to demonstrate the feasibility of measuring {sup 210}Pb in the heads of former uranium miners has been accomplished.

  7. A Conceptual Framework for the Assessment of Cumulative Exposure to Air Pollution at a Fine Spatial Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahida, Kihal-Talantikite; Padilla, Cindy M; Denis, Zmirou-Navier; Olivier, Blanchard; Géraldine, Le Nir; Philippe, Quenel; Séverine, Deguen

    2016-03-15

    Many epidemiological studies examining long-term health effects of exposure to air pollutants have characterized exposure by the outdoor air concentrations at sites that may be distant to subjects' residences at different points in time. The temporal and spatial mobility of subjects and the spatial scale of exposure assessment could thus lead to misclassification in the cumulative exposure estimation. This paper attempts to fill the gap regarding cumulative exposure assessment to air pollution at a fine spatial scale in epidemiological studies investigating long-term health effects. We propose a conceptual framework showing how major difficulties in cumulative long-term exposure assessment could be surmounted. We then illustrate this conceptual model on the case of exposure to NO₂ following two steps: (i) retrospective reconstitution of NO₂ concentrations at a fine spatial scale; and (ii) a novel approach to assigning the time-relevant exposure estimates at the census block level, using all available data on residential mobility throughout a 10- to 20-year period prior to that for which the health events are to be detected. Our conceptual framework is both flexible and convenient for the needs of different epidemiological study designs.

  8. Modeling Joint Exposures and Health Outcomes for Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Case of Radon and Smoking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan I. Levy

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Community-based cumulative risk assessment requires characterization of exposures to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors, with consideration of how the non-chemical stressors may influence risks from chemical stressors. Residential radon provides an interesting case example, given its large attributable risk, effect modification due to smoking, and significant variability in radon concentrations and smoking patterns. In spite of this fact, no study to date has estimated geographic and sociodemographic patterns of both radon and smoking in a manner that would allow for inclusion of radon in community-based cumulative risk assessment. In this study, we apply multi-level regression models to explain variability in radon based on housing characteristics and geological variables, and construct a regression model predicting housing characteristics using U.S. Census data. Multi-level regression models of smoking based on predictors common to the housing model allow us to link the exposures. We estimate county-average lifetime lung cancer risks from radon ranging from 0.15 to 1.8 in 100, with high-risk clusters in areas and for subpopulations with high predicted radon and smoking rates. Our findings demonstrate the viability of screening-level assessment to characterize patterns of lung cancer risk from radon, with an approach that can be generalized to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors.

  9. Elaboration of a concept for the cumulative environmental exposure assessment of biocides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gross, Rita; Bunke, Dirk; Moch, Katja [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie e.V., Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Gartiser, Stefan [Hydrotox GmbH, Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2011-12-15

    Article 10(1) of the EU Biocidal Products Directive 98/8/EC (BPD) requires that for the inclusion of an active substance in Annex I, Annex IA or IB, cumulation effects from the use of biocidal products containing the same active substance shall be taken into account, where relevant. The study proves the feasibility of a technical realisation of Article 10(1) of the BPD and elaborates a first concept for the cumulative environmental exposure assessment of biocides. Existing requirements concerning cumulative assessments in other regulatory frameworks have been evaluated and their applicability for biocides has been examined. Technical terms and definitions used in this context were documented with the aim to harmonise terminology with other frameworks and to set up a precise definition within the BPD. Furthermore, application conditions of biocidal products have been analysed to find out for which cumulative exposure assessments may be relevant. Different parameters were identified which might serve as indicators for the relevance of cumulative exposure assessments. These indicators were then integrated in a flow chart by means of which the relevance of cumulative exposure assessments can be checked. Finally, proposals for the technical performance of cumulative exposure assessments within the Review Programme have been elaborated with the aim to bring the results of the project into the upcoming development and harmonization processes on EU level. (orig.)

  10. Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nilsson, H.; Rieskamp, J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2011-01-01

    Cumulative prospect theory (CPT Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) has provided one of the most influential accounts of how people make decisions under risk. CPT is a formal model with parameters that quantify psychological processes such as loss aversion, subjective values of gains and losses, and

  11. Retrospective study of cumulative diagnostic radiation exposure during childhood in patients with spina bifida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smookler, Gregory; Deavenport-Saman, Alexis

    2015-10-01

    The Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation Committee of the National Academy of Sciences in 2005 and other expert panels have warned that risk of cancer increases with higher doses of radiation. Children with spina bifida and hydrocephalus have far greater exposure to radiation than the average person, starting almost directly after birth and continuing throughout their lifetimes. The purpose of this study was to estimate the amount of ionizing radiation that patients with spina bifida and hydrocephalus are exposed to during childhood from diagnostic imaging. Thirty patients, ages 18 years or older, with spina bifida and hydrocephalus were randomly selected from a spina bifida clinic and their radiology records were reviewed. Descriptive analyses were conducted. The total radiation exposure was then calculated for the study group, and the mean effective dose per patient was determined. In the study group, during their first 18 years, each patient had a mean of 55.1 studies and a median of 45 radiologic studies, a mean of 9.6 brain CT scans, and a mean cumulative effective dose of 81.9 mSv (2.6 mSv/patient/year over 18 years) and a median cumulative effective dose of 77.2 mSV of accumulated radiation exposure (4.5 mSv/patient/year over 18 years). Clinicians should recognize that increased radiation exposure puts patients with spina bifida and hydrocephalus at higher risk for cancer. The population of children and adults with spina bifida and hydrocephalus should be surveyed for incidence of cancer. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Testing a cumulative and aggregate exposure model using biomonitoring studies and dietary records for Italian vineyard spray operators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Marc C; Glass, C Richard; Fustinoni, Silvia; Moretto, Angelo; Mandic-Rajcevic, Stefan; Riso, Patrizia; Turrini, Aida; van der Voet, Hilko; Hetmanski, Michel T; Fussell, Richard J; van Klaveren, Jacob D

    2015-05-01

    The need for improved tools to estimate the cumulative and aggregate exposure to compounds such as plant protection products (PPPs) is recognised in the EU Regulation 1107/2009. A new model has been developed to estimate the exposure within a population to single compounds or compounds within a Cumulative Action Group, considering dietary and non-dietary sources and multiple exposure routes. To test the model a field study was carried out in Italy with operators applying tebuconazole fungicides, with measurements of dermal exposure collected. Whole urine samples were collected and analysed to provide values for the absorbed dose of tebuconazole, with duplicate diet samples collected and analysed as a measure of dietary exposures. The model provided predicted values of exposure for combined dietary and non-dietary routes of exposures which were compared to the measured absorbed dose values based on urinary analysis. The model outputs provided mean daily exposure values of 1.77 (± 1.96) µg a.s./kg BW which are comparable to measured mean values from the biomonitoring field study of 1.73 (± 1.31) µg a.s./kg BW. To supplement the limited measurement data available, comparisons against other models were also made and found to be comparable.

  13. Evaluating Exposure-Response Associations for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma with Varying Methods of Assigning Cumulative Benzene Exposure in the Shanghai Women's Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friesen, Melissa C; Bassig, Bryan A; Vermeulen, Roel; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Purdue, Mark P; Stewart, Patricia A; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Chow, Wong-Ho; Ji, Bu-Tian; Yang, Gong; Linet, Martha S; Hu, Wei; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei; Rothman, Nathaniel; Lan, Qing

    2017-01-01

    To provide insight into the contributions of exposure measurements to job exposure matrices (JEMs), we examined the robustness of an association between occupational benzene exposure and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) to varying exposure assessment methods. NHL risk was examined in a prospective population-based cohort of 73087 women in Shanghai. A mixed-effects model that combined a benzene JEM with >60000 short-term, area benzene inspection measurements was used to derive two sets of measurement-based benzene estimates: 'job/industry-specific' estimates (our presumed best approach) were derived from the model's fixed effects (year, JEM intensity rating) and random effects (occupation, industry); 'calibrated JEM' estimates were derived using only the fixed effects. 'Uncalibrated JEM' (using the ordinal JEM ratings) and exposure duration estimates were also calculated. Cumulative exposure for each subject was calculated for each approach based on varying exposure definitions defined using the JEM's probability ratings. We examined the agreement between the cumulative metrics and evaluated changes in the benzene-NHL associations. For our primary exposure definition, the job/industry-specific estimates were moderately to highly correlated with all other approaches (Pearson correlation 0.61-0.89; Spearman correlation > 0.99). All these metrics resulted in statistically significant exposure-response associations for NHL, with negligible gain in model fit from using measurement-based estimates. Using more sensitive or specific exposure definitions resulted in elevated but non-significant associations. The robust associations observed here with varying benzene assessment methods provide support for a benzene-NHL association. While incorporating exposure measurements did not improve model fit, the measurements allowed us to derive quantitative exposure-response curves.

  14. Framework for Multi-Pathway Cumulative Exposure for Comparative Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKone, Tom; Fantke, Peter

    2016-01-01

    as a framework for comparative assessment of chemicals, products, and services. We first review the development and evolution of the multimedia mass-balance approach to pollutant fate and exposure evaluation and illustrate some of the calculations used in multimedia, multi-pathway exposure assessments...... in comparative risk assessment, life-cycle assessment (LCA), and chemical alternatives assessment (CAA), multimedia fate and exposure models synthesize information about partitioning, reaction, and intermedia-transport properties of chemicals in a representative (local to regional) or generic (continental...... to global) environment with information about larger scale populations rather than specific individuals or vulnerable subgroups. Although there can be large uncertainties in this approach, it provides insight on how chemical properties and use patterns map onto population-scale metrics of exposure...

  15. Dermal echogenicity: a biological indicator of individual cumulative UVR exposure?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandby-Møller, Jane; Thieden, Elisabeth; Philipsen, Peter Alshede; Schmidt, Grethe; Wulf, Hans Christian

    2004-04-01

    Dermal alterations due to chronic UVR exposure may influence dermal ultrasound echogenicity, and a subepidermal low-echogenic band has been proposed as a marker of photoaging. The aim of this study was to determine whether dermal echogenicity could be used as a biological UVR dosimeter. We included 201 subjects (138 healthy volunteers, 31 patients with basal cell carcinoma, and 32 patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma). The number of low-echogenic pixels in the upper dermis relative to the lower dermis (LEP(u/l)) was determined in sun-exposed and sun-protected skin. Individual UVR exposure data were collected retrospectively and prospectively using a questionnaire and electronic personal UVR dosimeters. Age, but not sex, skin type, constitutive pigmentation or smoking, correlated significantly with LEP(u/l) at all body sites. Different measures of individual UVR exposure were significantly positively correlated with LEP(u/l) (together r(2)=0.39, dorsal forearm), but separately the correlations were poor ( r(2)=0.04-0.19). LEP(u/l) was higher in the dorsal forearm in a group with high UVR exposure compared to a low-exposure group ( P=0.007). Skin cancer patients in general had a lower LEP(u/l) than healthy subjects. The results indicate that the age-related increase in LEP(u/l) might be attributed mainly to UVR exposure, and that the methods used to obtain the UVR exposure data might not be sufficiently sensitive or specific. Genetic factors might also influence LEP(u/l). We consider LEP(u/l) to be a sensitive and specific marker for UVR exposure at the dorsal aspect of the forearm in healthy subjects.

  16. Estimating multi-factor cumulative watershed effects on fish populations with an individual-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bret C. Harvey; Steven F. Railsback

    2007-01-01

    While the concept of cumulative effects is prominent in legislation governing environmental management, the ability to estimate cumulative effects remains limited. One reason for this limitation is that important natural resources such as fish populations may exhibit complex responses to changes in environmental conditions, particularly to alteration of multiple...

  17. Statistical Methods for Estimating the Cumulative Risk of Screening Mammography Outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hubbard, R.A.; Ripping, T.M.; Chubak, J.; Broeders, M.J.; Miglioretti, D.L.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: This study illustrates alternative statistical methods for estimating cumulative risk of screening mammography outcomes in longitudinal studies. METHODS: Data from the US Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) and the Nijmegen Breast Cancer Screening Program in the Netherlands were

  18. Childhood poverty and young adults' allostatic load: the mediating role of childhood cumulative risk exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gary W; Kim, Pilyoung

    2012-09-01

    Childhood poverty is linked to a host of physical and psychological disorders during childhood and later in life. In the study reported here, we showed that the proportion of childhood spent in poverty from birth to age 9 was linked to elevated allostatic load, a marker of chronic physiological stress, in 17-year-olds. Furthermore, this prospective longitudinal relationship was mediated by cumulative risk exposure at age 13. The greater the duration of early life spent in poverty, the greater the exposure to cumulative risk. This, in turn, leads to elevated allostatic load. Multiple psychological, biological, and neurological pathways likely account for the social patterning of psychological and physical disease.

  19. Cumulative violence exposure, emotional nonacceptance, and mental health symptoms in a community sample of women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundermann, Jane M; Chu, Ann T; DePrince, Anne P

    2013-01-01

    Women exposed to more types of violence (e.g., emotional, physical, or sexual violence)--referred to here as cumulative violence exposure--are at risk for more severe mental health symptoms compared to women who are exposed to a single type of violence or no violence. Women exposed to violence may also experience greater emotional nonacceptance compared to women with no exposure to violence. Emotional nonacceptance refers to an unwillingness to experience emotional states, including cognitive and behavioral attempts to avoid experiences of emotion. Given the links between cumulative violence exposure, emotional nonacceptance, and mental health symptoms among female victims of violence, the current study tested victims' emotional nonacceptance as a partial mediator between cumulative violence exposure and the severity of 3 types of symptoms central to complex trauma responses: depression, dissociation, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. A non-treatment-seeking community sample of women (N = 89; M age = 30.70 years) completed self-report questionnaires and interviews. Bootstrap procedures were then used to test 3 mediation models for the separate predictions of depression, dissociation, and PTSD symptoms. Results supported our hypotheses that emotional nonacceptance would mediate the relationship between women's cumulative violence exposure and severity for all symptom types. The current findings highlight the role that emotional nonacceptance may play in the development of mental health symptoms for chronically victimized women and point to the need for longitudinal research in such populations.

  20. Studying cumulative ozone exposures in Europe during a 7-year period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastrup-Birk, Annemarie; Brandt, JøRgen; Zlatev, Zahari; Uria, Ignacio

    1997-10-01

    Ozone is one of the most harmful pollutants in the troposphere. High ozone concentrations can damage plants, animals and humans. The damaging effects depend on the magnitude of a critical level of a special parameter, the cumulative ozone exposure. This is why cumulative ozone exposures must be carefully studied. It is important to determine the relationships between relevant emissions (NOx emissions, human-made VOC emissions, and/or a combination of NOx emissions and human-made VOC emissions) and cumulative ozone exposures. All these issues are discussed in this paper. Meteorological data from seven consecutive years, from 1989 to 1995, have been used in the experiments with different scenarios for varying the emissions (the NOx emissions, the human-made VOC emissions, as well as both the NOx emissions and the human-made VOC emissions). The particular air pollution model used in this study is the Danish Eulerian Model. Several hundred runs with different input data (meteorological data and/or emission data) have been performed. Advanced visualization techniques are used to interpret the large amount of digital data collected in these runs and to show clearly different trends and relationships that are normally hidden behind millions and millions of numbers. The model results were compared with measurements taken at more than 80 stations located in different European countries. The experiments indicate that it is sufficient to carry out computations over 5 consecutive years in order to eliminate the influence of extreme meteorological conditions (very warm or very cold summer months) on the cumulative ozone exposures, while this effect is clearly seen if less than 5 years are used in the experiments. It is shown that the relationship between the emissions (NOx and/or human-made VOC emissions) and the cumulative ozone exposures is in general nonlinear. Finally, it is illustrated that the critical values for ozone exposures are exceeded in most of Europe (in many

  1. Estimation of the annual cumulative radiation dose received by the dentist in dental clinics in Chennai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanarpalayam Chinaswamy Selvamuthukumar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim and Objectives: To estimate the annual cumulative radiation dose received by a dentist in a ′less than an ideally sized clinic′ in Chennai. The objective of the study is to estimate the annual cumulative radiation dose received by the dentist at various distances and various angulations from the x-ray tube. Study Design: The head of a mannequin model was mounted on the dental chair to simulate a patient′s head and three thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD chips were kept at various distances and various angulations, at a constant height. The standard conventional intraoral dental radiographic unit was used, which was kept stationary, with a constant voltage of 70 Kv, 8 mA current, and a constant exposure time of 0.3 seconds. Ninety-two TLD chips were exposed 20 times a day with constant horizontal angulations for a period of one year. The reading from the TLD chips was obtained on a computer through a TLD Badge Reader. Statistical Analysis: Post Hoc tests and One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA were used. Results and Conclusion: A decreasing trend was obtained in the average radiation doses, as the distance increased from the x-ray source, and a highly significant difference in doses (P < 0.001% was found between 4 and 5.5 feet (ft. We found a minimum average radiation dose at an angle of 60° to 80° and behind the tube. The purpose of this study was to create awareness among dental professionals, who had ′less than an ideally sized clinic′. We recommend that the dentist follow guidelines suggested by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP, USA. From this study, it is clear that most clinics are of sizes that do not permit this distance (6 ft, and hence, it is recommended that they use suitable barriers.

  2. Estimating Contact Exposure in Football Using the Head Impact Exposure Estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Zachary Y; Littleton, Ashley C; Cox, Leah M; DeFreese, J D; Varangis, Eleanna; Lynall, Robert C; Schmidt, Julianne D; Marshall, Stephen W; Guskiewicz, Kevin M

    2015-07-15

    Over the past decade, there has been significant debate regarding the effect of cumulative subconcussive head impacts on short and long-term neurological impairment. This debate remains unresolved, because valid epidemiological estimates of athletes' total contact exposure are lacking. We present a measure to estimate the total hours of contact exposure in football over the majority of an athlete's lifespan. Through a structured oral interview, former football players provided information related to primary position played and participation in games and practice contacts during the pre-season, regular season, and post-season of each year of their high school, college, and professional football careers. Spring football for college was also included. We calculated contact exposure estimates for 64 former football players (n = 32 college football only, n = 32 professional and college football). The head impact exposure estimate (HIEE) discriminated between individuals who stopped after college football, and individuals who played professional football (p < 0.001). The HIEE measure was independent of concussion history (p = 0.82). Estimating total hours of contact exposure may allow for the detection of differences between individuals with variation in subconcussive impacts, regardless of concussion history. This measure is valuable for the surveillance of subconcussive impacts and their associated potential negative effects.

  3. Cumulative Effects of Exposure to Violence on Posttraumatic Stress in Palestinian and Israeli Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubow, Eric F.; Boxer, Paul; Huesmann, L. Rowell; Landau, Simha; Dvir, Shira; Shikaki, Khalil; Ginges, Jeremy

    2012-01-01

    We examine cumulative and prospective effects of exposure to conflict and violence across four contexts (ethnic-political, community, family, school) on posttraumatic stress (PTS) symptoms in Palestinian and Israeli youth. Interviews were conducted with 600 Palestinian and 901 Israeli (Jewish and Arab) children (ages 8, 11, and 14) and their…

  4. Cumulative radiation exposure and cancer risk of patients with ischemic heart diseases from diagnostic and therapeutic imaging procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brix, Gunnar, E-mail: gbrix@bfs.de [Department of Medical and Occupational Radiation Protection, Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Ingoldstädter Landstraße 1, D-85764 Oberschleissheim (Germany); Berton, Marc, E-mail: marcberton@web.de [Institute of Clinical Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, University Medical Center Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Theodor-Kutzer-Ufer 1-3, D-68167 Mannheim (Germany); Nekolla, Elke, E-mail: enekolla@bfs.de [Department of Medical and Occupational Radiation Protection, Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Ingoldstädter Landstraße 1, D-85764 Oberschleissheim (Germany); Lechel, Ursula, E-mail: ulechel@bfs.de [Department of Medical and Occupational Radiation Protection, Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Ingoldstädter Landstraße 1, D-85764 Oberschleissheim (Germany); Schegerer, Alexander, E-mail: aschegerer@bfs.de [Department of Medical and Occupational Radiation Protection, Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Ingoldstädter Landstraße 1, D-85764 Oberschleissheim (Germany); Süselbeck, Tim, E-mail: Tim.Sueselbeck@umm.de [Department of Cardiology, University Medical Center Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Theodor-Kutzer-Ufer 1-3, D-68167 Mannheim (Germany); Fink, Christian, E-mail: Christian.Fink@umm.de [Institute of Clinical Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, University Medical Center Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Theodor-Kutzer-Ufer 1-3, D-68167 Mannheim (Germany)

    2013-11-01

    Objectives: To present a detailed analysis of the cumulative radiation exposure and cancer risk of patients with ischemic heart diseases (IHD) from diagnostic and therapeutic imaging. Methods: For 1219 IHD patients, personal and examination data were retrieved from the information systems of a university hospital. For each patient, cumulative organ doses and the corresponding effective dose (E{sup ¯}) resulting from all imaging procedures performed within 3 months before and 12 months after the date of the diagnosis were calculated. The cumulative lifetime attributable risk (LAR{sup ¯}) of the patients to be diseased by radiation-related cancer was estimated using sex-, age-, and organ-specific risk models. Results: Among the 3870 procedures performed in the IHD patients, the most frequent were radiographic examinations (52.4%) followed by coronary catheter angiographies and percutaneous cardiac interventions (41.3%), CT scans (3.9%), and perfusion SPECT (2.3%). 87% of patient exposure resulted from heart catheter procedures. E{sup ¯} and LAR{sup ¯} were significantly higher in males than females (average, 13.3 vs. 10.3 mSv and 0.09 vs. 0.07%, respectively). Contrary to the effective dose, the cancer risk decreased markedly for both sexes with increasing age. Conclusions: Although IHD patients were partially exposed to considerable amounts of radiation, estimated LAR{sup ¯}s were small as compared to their baseline risk to develop cancer in the remaining life.

  5. Estimated cumulative sediment trapping in future hydropower reservoirs in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucía, Ana; Berlekamp, Jürgen; Zarfl, Christiane

    2017-04-01

    Despite a rapid economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa, almost 70% of the human population in this area remain disconnected from electricity access (International Energy Agency 2011). Mitigating climate change and a search for renewable, "climate neutral" electricity resources are additional reasons why Africa will be one key centre for future hydropower dam building, with only 8% of the technically feasible hydropower potential actually exploited. About 300 major hydropower dams with a total capacity of 140 GW are currently under construction (11.4%) or planned (88.6%) (Zarfl et al. 2015). Despite the benefits of hydropower dams, fragmentation of the rivers changes the natural flow, temperature and sediment regime. This has consequences for a high number of people that directly depend on the primary sector linked to rivers and floodplains. But sediment trapping in the reservoir also affects dam operation and decreases its life span. Thus, the objective of this work is to quantify the dimension of sediment trapping by future hydropower dams in African river basins. Soil erosion is described with the universal soil loss equation (Wischmeier & Smith 1978) and combined with the connectivity index (Cavalli et al. 2013) to estimate the amount of eroded soil that reaches the fluvial network and finally ends up in the existing (Lehner et al. 2011) and future reservoirs (Zarfl et al. 2015) per year. Different scenarios assuming parameter values from the literature are developed to include model uncertainty. Estimations for existing dams will be compared with literature data to evaluate the applied estimation method and scenario assumptions. Based on estimations for the reservoir volume of the future dams we calculated the potential time-laps of the future reservoirs due to soil erosion and depending on their planned location. This approach could support sustainable decision making for the location of future hydropower dams. References Cavalli, M., Trevisani, S., Comiti

  6. Cumulative Ocean Volume Estimates of the Solar System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, E. A.; Mojzsis, S. J.

    2010-12-01

    Although there has been much consideration for habitability in silicate planets and icy bodies, this information has never been quantitatively gathered into a single approximation encompassing our solar system from star to cometary halo. Here we present an estimate for the total habitable volume of the solar system by constraining our definition of habitable environments to those to which terrestrial microbial extremophiles could theoretically be transplanted and yet survive. The documented terrestrial extremophile inventory stretches environmental constraints for habitable temperature and pH space of T ~ -15oC to 121oC and pH ~ 0 to 13.5, salinities >35% NaCl, and gamma radiation doses of 10,000 to 11,000 grays [1]. Pressure is likely not a limiting factor to life [2]. We applied these criteria in our analysis of the geophysical habitable potential of the icy satellites and small icy bodies. Given the broad spectrum of environmental tolerance, we are optimistic that our pessimistic estimates are conservative. Beyond the reaches of our inner solar system's conventional habitable zone (Earth, Mars and perhaps Venus) is Ceres, a dwarf planet in the habitable zone that could possess a significant liquid water ocean if that water contains anti-freezing species [3]. Yet further out, Europa is a small icy satellite that has generated much excitement for astrobiological potential due to its putative subsurface liquid water ocean. It is widely promulgated that the icy moons Enceladus, Triton, Callisto, Ganymede, and Titan likewise have also sustained liquid water oceans. If oceans in Europa, Enceladus, and Triton have direct contact with a rocky mantle hot enough to melt, hydrothermal vents could provide an energy source for chemotrophic organisms. Although oceans in the remaining icy satellites may be wedged between two layers of ice, their potential for life cannot be precluded. Relative to the Jovian style of icy satellites, trans-neptunian objects (TNOs) - icy bodies

  7. Estimated cumulative radiation dose received by diagnostic imaging during staging and treatment of operable Ewing sarcoma 2005-2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnsen, Boel [Haukeland University Hospital, Centre for Nuclear Medicine and PET, Department of Radiology, P.O. Box 1400, Bergen (Norway); Fasmer, Kristine Eldevik [Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Oncology, Medical Physics Section, Bergen (Norway); Boye, Kjetil [Norwegian Radium Hospital, Oslo University Hospital, Department of Oncology, Oslo (Norway); Rosendahl, Karen; Aukland, Stein Magnus [Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Paediatric Section, Bergen (Norway); University of Bergen, Department of Clinical Medicine, Bergen (Norway); Trovik, Clement [University of Bergen, Department of Clinical Medicine, Bergen (Norway); Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Surgery, Orthopaedic Section, Bergen (Norway); Biermann, Martin [Haukeland University Hospital, Centre for Nuclear Medicine and PET, Department of Radiology, P.O. Box 1400, Bergen (Norway); University of Bergen, Department of Clinical Medicine, Bergen (Norway)

    2017-01-15

    Patients with Ewing sarcoma are subject to various diagnostic procedures that incur exposure to ionising radiation. To estimate the radiation doses received from all radiologic and nuclear imaging episodes during diagnosis and treatment, and to determine whether {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography - computed tomography ({sup 18}F-FDG PET-CT) is a major contributor of radiation. Twenty Ewing sarcoma patients diagnosed in Norway in 2005-2012 met the inclusion criteria (age <30 years, operable disease, uncomplicated chemotherapy and surgery, no metastasis or residual disease within a year of diagnosis). Radiation doses from all imaging during the first year were calculated for each patient. The mean estimated cumulative radiation dose for all patients was 34 mSv (range: 6-70), radiography accounting for 3 mSv (range: 0.2-12), CT for 13 mSv (range: 2-28) and nuclear medicine for 18 mSv (range: 2-47). For the patients examined with PET-CT, the mean estimated cumulative effective dose was 38 mSv, of which PET-CT accounted for 14 mSv (37%). There was large variation in number and type of examinations performed and also in estimated cumulative radiation dose. The mean radiation dose for patients examined with PET-CT was 23% higher than for patients not examined with PET-CT. (orig.)

  8. DOSE-RESPONSE MODELING FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF CUMULATIVE RISK DUE TO EXPOSURE TO N-METHYL CARBAMATE PESTICIDES

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US EPAs N-Methyl Carbamate Cumulative Risk Assessment (NMCRA) assesses the effect on acetylcholine esterase (AChE) activity of exposure to 10 N-methyl carbamate (NMC) pesticides through dietary, drinking water, and residential exposures.

  9. Cumulative risk assessment of phthalate exposure of Danish children and adolescents using the hazard index approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søeborg, T; Frederiksen, H; Andersson, Anna-Maria

    2012-01-01

    and adolescents and resulting estimated daily intakes of four different phthalates. These daily intake estimates are used for a cumulative risk assessment with anti-androgenic effects as the endpoint using Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) values determined by the European Food Safety Authorities (EFSA) or Reference...... endpoint for the phthalates included in this article. Using the EFSA TDI values, 12 children exceeded the hazard quotient for the sum of di-n-butyl phthalate and di-iso-butyl phthalate (∑DBP((i+n)) ) and one child exceeded the hazard quotient for di-(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP). Nineteen children...... exceeded the cumulated hazard index for three phthalates. Using the RfD AA values, one child exceeded the hazard quotient for DEHP and the same child exceeded the cumulated hazard index for four phthalates. The EFSA TDI approach thus is more restrictive and identifies ∑DBP((i+n)) as the compound...

  10. Cumulative ionizing radiation exposure in patients with end stage kidney disease: a 6-year retrospective analysis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Coyle, Joe

    2011-08-13

    OBJECTIVE: To quantify cumulative exposure to ionizing radiation in patients with end stage kidney disease (ESKD). To investigate factors which may be independently associated with risk of high cumulative effective dose (CED). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study had local institutional review board ethical approval. We conducted a retrospective study of 394 period prevalent ESKD patients attending a single tertiary referral centre between 2004 and 2009. Patient demographics were obtained from case records. Details of radiological investigations were obtained from the institutional radiology computerized database. CED was calculated using standard procedure specific radiation levels. High exposure was defined as CED > 50 mSv, an exposure which has been reported to increase cancer mortality by 5%. Data were compared using Pearson χ(2) and Mann-Whitney U test or Kruskal-Wallis tests. RESULTS: 394 patients were followed for a median of 4 years (1518 patient years follow-up). Of these 63% were male. Seventeen percent of patients had a CED of >50 mSv. Computed tomography (CT) accounted for 9% of total radiological studies\\/procedures while contributing 61.4% of total study dose. Median cumulative dose and median dose per patient year were significantly higher in the hemodialysis (HD) group (15.13 and 5.79 mSv, respectively) compared to the post-transplant group (2.9 and 0.52 mSv, respectively) (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: ESKD patients are at risk of cumulative exposure to significant levels of diagnostic radiation. The majority of this exposure is imparted as a result of CT examinations to patients in the HD group.

  11. Probabilistic assessment of the cumulative dietary exposure of the population of Denmark to endocrine disrupting pesticides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bodil Hamborg; Petersen, Annette; Christiansen, Sofie

    2013-01-01

    The four pesticides epoxiconazole, prochloraz, procymidone and tebuconazole, are commonly used pesticides, all suspected of acting as endocrine disrupters. In the present study, we assessed the acute cumulative dietary exposure to the women of child bearing age and the general population of Denmark...... to these pesticides from the intake of fruit and vegetables. The assessment was carried out using the probabilistic approach combined with the relative potency factor (RPF) approach. Residue data for prochloraz, procymidone, and tebuconazole were obtained from the Danish monitoring programme 2006–2009, while residue....... Prochloraz was used as the index compound. All four pesticides increased nipple retention in male offspring, and epoxiconazole, prochloraz, and tebuconazole also increased the gestation period in pregnant rat dams. For women of childbearing age, the high-end cumulative exposure (99.9th percentile...

  12. Determining prenatal, early childhood and cumulative long-term lead exposure using micro-spatial deciduous dentine levels.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manish Arora

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the validity of micro-spatial dentine lead (Pb levels as a biomarker for accurately estimating exposure timing over the prenatal and early childhood periods and long-term cumulative exposure to Pb. In a prospective pregnancy cohort sub-sample of 85 subjects, we compared dentine Pb levels measured using laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry with Pb concentrations in maternal blood collected in the second and third trimesters, maternal bone, umbilical cord blood, and childhood serial blood samples collected from the ages of 3 months to ≥6 years. We found that Pb levels (as 208Pb:43Ca in dentine formed at birth were significantly associated with cord blood Pb (Spearman ρ = 0.69; n = 27; p<0.0001. The association of prenatal dentine Pb with maternal patella Pb (Spearman ρ = 0.48; n = 59; p<0.0001 was stronger than that observed for tibia Pb levels (Spearman ρ = 0.35; n = 41; p<0.03. When assessing postnatal exposure, we found that Pb levels in dentine formed at 3 months were significantly associated with Pb concentrations in children's blood collected concurrently (Spearman ρ = 0.64; n = 55; p<0.0001. We also found that mean Pb concentrations in secondary dentine (that is formed from root completion to tooth shedding correlated positively with cumulative blood lead index (Spearman ρ = 0.38; n = 75; p<0.0007. Overall, our results support that micro-spatial measurements of Pb in dentine can be reliably used to reconstruct Pb exposure timing over the prenatal and early childhood periods, and secondary dentine holds the potential to estimate long-term exposure up to the time the tooth is shed.

  13. Nonparametric Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Functions for Competing Risks Data with Missing Cause of Failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Effraimidis, Georgios; Dahl, Christian Møller

    In this paper, we develop a fully nonparametric approach for the estimation of the cumulative incidence function with Missing At Random right-censored competing risks data. We obtain results on the pointwise asymptotic normality as well as the uniform convergence rate of the proposed nonparametric...... estimator. A simulation study that serves two purposes is provided. First, it illustrates in details how to implement our proposed nonparametric estimator. Secondly, it facilitates a comparison of the nonparametric estimator to a parametric counterpart based on the estimator of Lu and Liang (2008...

  14. Ocular lens blue autofluorescence cannot be used as a measure of individual cumulative UVR exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandby-Møller, Jane; Thieden, Elisabeth; Alshede Philipsen, Peter; Schmidt, Grethe; Wulf, Hans Christian

    2004-02-01

    The accumulation of fluorophores in the ocular lens with age might be caused by ultraviolet solar radiation (UVR) exposure, but evidence of a relation between individual cumulative UVR exposure and lens autofluorescence is lacking. Individually determined UVR exposure has never before been related to lens autofluorescence, and the aim of this study was to investigate if ocular lens blue autofluorescence can be used as a biological UVR dosimeter. Ocular lens autofluorescence was quantified in vivo by fluorescence spectroscopy in 145 volunteers (108 healthy subjects, 18 with basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and 19 with cutaneous malignant melanoma (MM)). The excitation wavelength was 350 nm and the fluorescence emission was 450 nm. Individual UVR exposure data were collected both retrospectively and prospectively using questionnaires and electronic personal UVR dosimeters. Lens blue autofluorescence increased significantly with age (P=0.01), and females had significantly higher autofluorescence than males (P=0.024); the two factors explained 10% of the total variation in lens autofluorescence. Neither smoking habits nor use of glasses/contact lenses or sunglasses influenced autofluorescence. No correlations between autofluorescence and UVR exposure measurements were found, and neither was there a difference in autofluorescence between groups with high and low UVR exposure (P-values>0.1), respectively. MM patients had significantly (P=0.019) higher autofluorescence than healthy subjects when age and sex differences were taken into account; no such difference (P=0.097) was detected between BCC patients and healthy subjects. The results indicate that age and gender only play a minor role in the level of lens blue autofluorescence. Exposure to UVR has been suggested to be responsible for a part of the age-related increase in autofluorescence, but this could not be confirmed in this study. The higher level of lens autofluorescence found in MM patients might be due to genetics

  15. The Effect of Uncertainty in Exposure Estimation on the Exposure-Response Relation between 1,3-Butadiene and Leukemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Maldonado

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: In a follow-up study of mortality among North American synthetic rubber industry workers, cumulative exposure to 1,3-butadiene was positively associated with leukemia. Problems with historical exposure estimation, however, may have distorted the association. To evaluate the impact of potential inaccuracies in exposure estimation, we conducted uncertainty analyses of the relation between cumulative exposure to butadiene and leukemia. We created the 1,000 sets of butadiene estimates using job-exposure matrices consisting of exposure values that corresponded to randomly selected percentiles of the approximate probability distribution of plant-, work area/job group-, and year specific butadiene ppm. We then analyzed the relation between cumulative exposure to butadiene and leukemia for each of the 1,000 sets of butadiene estimates. In the uncertainty analysis, the point estimate of the RR for the first non zero exposure category (>0–<37.5 ppm-years was most likely to be about 1.5. The rate ratio for the second exposure category (37.5–<184.7 ppm-years was most likely to range from 1.5 to 1.8. The RR for category 3 of exposure (184.7–<425.0 ppm-years was most likely between 2.1 and 3.0. The RR for the highest exposure category (425.0+ ppm-years was likely to be between 2.9 and 3.7. This range off RR point estimates can best be interpreted as a probability distribution that describes our uncertainty in RR point estimates due to uncertainty in exposure estimation. After considering the complete probability distributions of butadiene exposure estimates, the exposure-response association of butadiene and leukemia was maintained. This exercise was a unique example of how uncertainty analyses can be used to investigate and support an observed measure of effect when occupational exposure estimates are employed in the absence of direct exposure measurements.

  16. A SAS-macro for estimation of the cumulative incidence using Poisson regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waltoft, Berit Lindum

    2009-01-01

    the hazard rates, and the hazard rates are often estimated by the Cox regression. This procedure may not be suitable for large studies due to limited computer resources. Instead one uses Poisson regression, which approximates the Cox regression. Rosthøj et al. presented a SAS-macro for the estimation...... of the cumulative incidences based on the Cox regression. I present the functional form of the probabilities and variances when using piecewise constant hazard rates and a SAS-macro for the estimation using Poisson regression. The use of the macro is demonstrated through examples and compared to the macro presented...

  17. Joint frequency, 2D AOA and polarization estimation using fourth-order cumulants

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王建英; 陈天琪

    2000-01-01

    Based on fourth-order cumulant and ESPRIT algorithm, a novel joint frequency, two-dimensional angle of arrival (2D AOA) and the polarization estimation method of incoming multiple independent spatial narrow-band non-Gaussian signals in arbitrary Gaussian noise environment are proposed . The array is composed of crossed dipoles parallel to the coordinate axes. The crossed dipole positions are arbitrarily distributed. Computer simulation confirms its feasibility.

  18. Joint frequency, 2D AOA and polarization estimation using fourth-order cumulants

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Based on fourth-order cumulant and ESPRIT algorithm, a novel joint frequency, two-dimensional angle of arrival (2D AOA) and the polarization estimation method of incoming multiple independent spatial narrow-band non-Gaussian signals in arbitrary Gaussian noise environment are proposed. The array is composed of crossed dipoles parallel to the coordinate axes. The crossed dipole positions are arbitrarily distributed. Computer simulation confirms its feasibility.

  19. Psychobiology of cumulative trauma: hair cortisol as a risk marker for stress exposure in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Matthew C; Abelson, James L; Mielock, Alyssa S; Rao, Uma

    2017-07-01

    Childhood trauma (CT) is associated with long-lasting alterations of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and elevated risk for stress exposure in adulthood. Although HPA alterations are present in the early aftermath of trauma, it remains unclear how initial HPA activity is associated with subsequent stress exposure and whether CT exposure influences the strength and direction of this association. The present study examined prospective associations between hair cortisol content (HCC) and stress exposure from baseline to 3-month follow-up in young adult women with recent (i.e. past 3 months) exposure to interpersonal violence (IPV; i.e. physical or sexual assault) and non-traumatized controls. History of significant CT abuse or neglect was determined based on clinical cutoffs for a self-report CT measure: 12 women had abuse or neglect and recent IPV exposure (CT + IPV); 7 women had abuse or neglect but no IPV exposure (CT); 15 women had no history of trauma (NTC). HCC was computed for 3 cm sections reflecting cortisol secretion during the 3 months preceding the baseline assessment. The interaction of cumulative trauma and HCC predicted stress exposure over 3-month follow-up, controlling for baseline stress exposure and depressive symptoms. Simple slopes analyses revealed that lower baseline HCC predicted greater stress exposure in the CT + IPV group compared to the CT group; HCC was not associated with stress exposure in the NTC group. The present findings highlight the potential utility of HCC as a predictor of stress exposure for women with a history of childhood abuse or neglect, particularly in the context of recent IPV. Lay summary Adults with a history of CT show long-lasting alterations in major stress response systems, including the HPA axis. They are also more likely to experience stressful life events in adulthood. However, it is not clear how altered HPA activity influences risk for stress exposure and whether CT affects their

  20. Joint estimation of DOA, frequency, and polarization based on cumulants and UCA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huang Jiacai; Shi Yaowu; Tao Jianwu

    2007-01-01

    A joint estimation algorithm of direction of arrival (DOA), frequency, and polarization, based on fourth-order cumulants and uniform circular array (UCA) of trimmed vector sensors is presented for narrowband non-Gaussian signals. The proposed approach, which is suitable for applications in arbitrary Gaussian noise environments, gives a closed-form representation of the estimated parameters, without spectral peak searching. An efficient method is also provided for elimination of cyclic phase ambiguities. Simulations are presented to show the performance of the algorithm.

  1. Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Methodological Approaches for Evaluating Combined Health Effects from Exposure to Multiple Environmental Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sexton, Ken

    2012-01-01

    Systematic evaluation of cumulative health risks from the combined effects of multiple environmental stressors is becoming a vital component of risk-based decisions aimed at protecting human populations and communities. This article briefly examines the historical development of cumulative risk assessment as an analytical tool, and discusses current approaches for evaluating cumulative health effects from exposure to both chemical mixtures and combinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. A comparison of stressor-based and effects-based assessment methods is presented, and the potential value of focusing on viable risk management options to limit the scope of cumulative evaluations is discussed. The ultimate goal of cumulative risk assessment is to provide answers to decision-relevant questions based on organized scientific analysis; even if the answers, at least for the time being, are inexact and uncertain. PMID:22470298

  2. Flexible parametric modelling of cause-specific hazards to estimate cumulative incidence functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Competing risks are a common occurrence in survival analysis. They arise when a patient is at risk of more than one mutually exclusive event, such as death from different causes, and the occurrence of one of these may prevent any other event from ever happening. Methods There are two main approaches to modelling competing risks: the first is to model the cause-specific hazards and transform these to the cumulative incidence function; the second is to model directly on a transformation of the cumulative incidence function. We focus on the first approach in this paper. This paper advocates the use of the flexible parametric survival model in this competing risk framework. Results An illustrative example on the survival of breast cancer patients has shown that the flexible parametric proportional hazards model has almost perfect agreement with the Cox proportional hazards model. However, the large epidemiological data set used here shows clear evidence of non-proportional hazards. The flexible parametric model is able to adequately account for these through the incorporation of time-dependent effects. Conclusion A key advantage of using this approach is that smooth estimates of both the cause-specific hazard rates and the cumulative incidence functions can be obtained. It is also relatively easy to incorporate time-dependent effects which are commonly seen in epidemiological studies. PMID:23384310

  3. Summary of retrospective asbestos and welding fume exposure estimates for a nuclear naval shipyard and their correlation with radiation exposure estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaebst, D D; Seel, E A; Yiin, J H; Nowlin, S J; Chen, P

    2009-07-01

    In support of a nested case-control study at a U.S. naval shipyard, the results of the reconstruction of historical exposures were summarized, and an analysis was undertaken to determine the impact of historical exposures to potential chemical confounders. The nested case-control study (N = 4388) primarily assessed the relationship between lung cancer and external ionizing radiation. Chemical confounders considered important were asbestos and welding fume (as iron oxide fume), and the chromium and nickel content of welding fume. Exposures to the potential confounders were estimated by an expert panel based on a set of quantitatively defined categories of exposure. Distributions of the estimated exposures and trends in exposures over time were examined for the study population. Scatter plots and Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to assess the degree of association between the estimates of exposure to asbestos, welding fume, and ionizing radiation. Correlation coefficients were calculated separately for 0-, 15-, 20-, and 25-year time-lagged cumulative exposures, total radiation dose (which included medical X-ray dose) and occupational radiation dose. Exposed workers' estimated cumulative exposures to asbestos ranged from 0.01 fiber-days/cm(3) to just under 20,000 fiber-days/cm(3), with a median of 29.0 fiber-days/cm(3). Estimated cumulative exposures to welding fume ranged from 0.16 mg-days/m(3) to just over 30,000 mg-days/m(3), with a median of 603 mg-days/m(3). Spearman correlation coefficients between cumulative radiation dose and cumulative asbestos exposures ranged from 0.09 (occupational dose) to 0.47 (total radiation dose), and those between radiation and welding fume from 0.14 to 0.47. The estimates of relative risk for ionizing radiation and lung cancer were unchanged when lowest and highest estimates of asbestos and welding fume were considered. These results suggest a fairly large proportion of study population workers were exposed to

  4. Cumulant-Based Coherent Signal Subspace Method for Bearing and Range Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bourennane Salah

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A new method for simultaneous range and bearing estimation for buried objects in the presence of an unknown Gaussian noise is proposed. This method uses the MUSIC algorithm with noise subspace estimated by using the slice fourth-order cumulant matrix of the received data. The higher-order statistics aim at the removal of the additive unknown Gaussian noise. The bilinear focusing operator is used to decorrelate the received signals and to estimate the coherent signal subspace. A new source steering vector is proposed including the acoustic scattering model at each sensor. Range and bearing of the objects at each sensor are expressed as a function of those at the first sensor. This leads to the improvement of object localization anywhere, in the near-field or in the far-field zone of the sensor array. Finally, the performances of the proposed method are validated on data recorded during experiments in a water tank.

  5. Improving environmental exposure analysis using cumulative distribution functions and individual geocoding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chakraborty Jayajit

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Assessments of environmental exposure and health risks that utilize Geographic Information Systems (GIS often make simplifying assumptions when using: (a one or more discrete buffer distances to define the spatial extent of impacted regions, and (b aggregated demographic data at the level of census enumeration units to derive the characteristics of the potentially exposed population. A case-study of school children in Orange County, Florida, is used to demonstrate how these limitations can be overcome by the application of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs and individual geocoded locations. Exposure potential for 159,923 school children was determined at the childrens' home residences and at school locations by determining the distance to the nearest gasoline station, stationary air pollution source, and industrial facility listed in the Toxic Release Inventory (TRI. Errors and biases introduced by the use of discrete buffer distances and data aggregation were examined. Results The use of discrete buffers distances in proximity-based exposure analysis introduced substantial bias in terms of determining the potentially exposed population, and the results are strongly dependent on the choice of buffer distance(s. Comparisons of exposure potential between home and school locations indicated that different buffer distances yield different results and contradictory conclusions. The use of a CDF provided a much more meaningful representation and is not based on the a-priori assumption that any particular distance is more relevant than another. The use of individual geocoded locations also provided a more accurate characterization of the exposed population and allowed for more reliable comparisons among sub-groups. In the comparison of children's home residences and school locations, the use of data aggregated at the census block group and tract level introduced variability as well as bias, leading to incorrect conclusions as

  6. Epigenome: A Biomarker or Screening Tool to Evaluate Health Impact of Cumulative Exposure to Chemical and Non-Chemical Stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olden, Kenneth; Lin, Yu-Sheng; Bussard, David

    2016-06-01

    Current risk assessment practices and toxicity information are hard to utilize for assessing the health impact of combined or cumulative exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors encountered in the "real world" environment. Non-chemical stressors such as heat, radiation, noise, humidity, bacterial and viral agents, and social factors, like stress related to violence and socioeconomic position generally cannot be currently incorporated into the risk assessment paradigm. The Science and Decisions report released by the National Research Council (NRC) in 2009 emphasized the need to characterize the effects of multiple stressors, both chemical and non-chemical exposures. One impediment to developing information relating such non-chemical stressors to health effects and incorporating them into cumulative assessment has been the lack of analytical tools to easily and quantitatively monitor the cumulative exposure to combined effects of stressors over the life course.

  7. Cumulative Weight Exposure Is Associated with Different Weight Loss Strategies and Weight Loss Success in Adults Age 50 or Above

    OpenAIRE

    Martin Sénéchal; Jana Slaght; Bouchard, Danielle R.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. To evaluate if cumulative weight exposure is associated with weight loss strategy choices and weight loss success. Methods. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used; a total of 4,562 people age 50 years or older who reported trying to lose weight in the last year were studied. Cumulative weight exposure (CWE) score was defined as the sum of body mass index points above 25 kg/m2 at the age of 25, 10 years ago, 1 year ago, and now. Weight loss strateg...

  8. Performance of cumulant-based rank reduction estimator in presence of unexpected modeling errors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王鼎

    2015-01-01

    Compared with the rank reduction estimator (RARE) based on second-order statistics (called SOS-RARE), the RARE based on fourth-order cumulants (referred to as FOC-RARE) can handle more sources and restrain the negative impacts of the Gaussian colored noise. However, the unexpected modeling errors appearing in practice are known to significantly degrade the performance of the RARE. Therefore, the direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation performance of the FOC-RARE is quantitatively derived. The explicit expression for direction-finding (DF) error is derived via the first-order perturbation analysis, and then the theoretical formula for the mean square error (MSE) is given. Simulation results demonstrate the validation of the theoretical analysis and reveal that the FOC-RARE is more robust to the unexpected modeling errors than the SOS-RARE.

  9. A comparison of peak vs cumulative physical work exposure risk factors for the reporting of low back pain in the automotive industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, R.; Wells, R.; Neumann, P.; Frank, J.; Shannon, H.; Kerr, M.

    1998-12-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the relative importance of modelled peak spine loads, hand loads, trunk kinematics and cumulative spine loads as predictors of reported low back pain (LBP). BACKGROUND: The authors have recently shown that both biomechemical and psychosocial variables are important in the reporting of LBP. In previous studies, peak spinal load risk factors have been identified and while there is in vitro evidence for adverse effects of excessive cumulative load on tissue, there is little epidemiological evidence. METHODS: Physical exposures to peak and cumulative lumbar spine moment, compression and shear forces, trunk kinematics, and forces on hands were analyzed on 130 randomly selected controls and 104 cases. Univariable and multivariable odds ratios of the risk of reporting were calculated from a backwards logistic regression analysis. Interrelationships among variables were examined by factor analysis. RESULTS: Cases showed significantly higher loading on all biomechanical variables. Four independent risk factors were identified: integrated lumbar moment (over a shift), 'usual' hand force, peak shear force at the level of L(4)/L(5) and peak trunk velocity. Substituting lumbar compression or moment for shear did not appreciably alter odds ratios because of high correlations among these variables. CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative biomechanical variables are important risk factors in the reporting of LBP. Spinal tissue loading estimates from a biomechanical model provide information not included in the trunk kinematics and hand force inputs to the model alone. Workers in the top 25% of loading exposure on all risk factors are at about six times the risk of reporting LBP when compared with those in the bottom 25%. RELEVANCE: Primary prevention, treatment, and return to work efforts for individuals reporting LBP all require understanding of risk factors. The results suggest that cumulative loading of the low back is important etiologically and highlight the need for

  10. On the method of logarithmic cumulants for parametric probability density function estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krylov, Vladimir A; Moser, Gabriele; Serpico, Sebastiano B; Zerubia, Josiane

    2013-10-01

    Parameter estimation of probability density functions is one of the major steps in the area of statistical image and signal processing. In this paper we explore several properties and limitations of the recently proposed method of logarithmic cumulants (MoLC) parameter estimation approach which is an alternative to the classical maximum likelihood (ML) and method of moments (MoM) approaches. We derive the general sufficient condition for a strong consistency of the MoLC estimates which represents an important asymptotic property of any statistical estimator. This result enables the demonstration of the strong consistency of MoLC estimates for a selection of widely used distribution families originating from (but not restricted to) synthetic aperture radar image processing. We then derive the analytical conditions of applicability of MoLC to samples for the distribution families in our selection. Finally, we conduct various synthetic and real data experiments to assess the comparative properties, applicability and small sample performance of MoLC notably for the generalized gamma and K families of distributions. Supervised image classification experiments are considered for medical ultrasound and remote-sensing SAR imagery. The obtained results suggest that MoLC is a feasible and computationally fast yet not universally applicable alternative to MoM. MoLC becomes especially useful when the direct ML approach turns out to be unfeasible.

  11. Multiple procedures and cumulative individual radiation exposure in interventional cardiology: A long-term retrospective study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weltermann, Birgitta M.; Rock, Thomas; Berndt, Peter; Viehmann, Anja; Reinders, Sabrina; Gesenhues, Stefan [University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute for General Medicine, University Hospital, Essen (Germany); Brix, Gunnar; Schegerer, Alexander [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Department of Radiation Protection and Health, Neuherberg (Germany)

    2015-09-15

    Various studies address discrepancies between guideline recommendations for coronary angiographies and clinical practice. While the issue of the appropriateness of recurrent angiographies was studied focusing on the role of the cardiologist, little is known about individual patients' histories and the associated radiation exposures. We analyzed all patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) in an academic teaching practice who underwent at least one angiography with or without intervention between 2004 and 2009. All performed angiographies in these patients were analyzed and rated by three physicians for appropriateness levels according to cardiology guidelines. Typical exposure data from the medical literature were used to estimate individual radiation exposure. In the cohort of 147 patients, a total of 441 procedures were analyzed: between 1981 and 2009, three procedures were performed per patient (range 1-19) on average. Appropriateness ratings were 'high/intermediate' in 71 %, 'low/no' in 27.6 % and data were insufficient for ratings in 1.4 %. Procedures with 'low/no' ratings were associated with potentially avoidable exposures of up to 186 mSv for single patients. Using retrospective data, we exemplify the potential benefit of guideline adherence to decrease patients' radiation exposures. (orig.)

  12. Cumulative radiation exposure from diagnostic imaging in intensive care unit patients

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fiachra Moloney; Daniel Fama; Maria Twomey; Ruth O’Leary; Conor Houlihane; Kevin P Murphy; Siobhan B O’Neill; Owen J O’Connor; Dorothy Breen; Michael M Maher

    2016-01-01

    AIM:To quantify cumulative effective dose of intensive care unit(ICU)patients attributable to diagnostic imaging.METHODS:This was a prospective,interdisciplinary study conducted in the ICU of a large tertiary referral and level 1 trauma center.Demographic and clinical data including age,gender,date of ICU admission,primary reason for ICU admission,APACHE Ⅱ score,length of stay,number of days intubated,date of death or discharge,and re-admission data was collected on all patients admitted over a 1-year period.The overall radiation exposure was quantified by the cumulative effective radiation dose(CED)in millisieverts(mS v)and calculated using reference effective doses published by the United Kingdom National Radiation Protection Board.Pediatric patients were selected for subgroupanalysis.RESULTS:A total of 2737 studies were performedin 421 patients.The total CED was 1704 m Sv with a median CED of 1.5 mS v(IQR 0.04-6.6 mS v).Total CED in pediatric patients was 74.6 mS v with a median CED of 0.07 mS v(IQR 0.01-4.7 mS v).Chest radiography was the most commonly performed examination accounting for 83% of all studies but only 2.7% of total CED.Computed tomography(CT)accounted for 16% of all studies performed and contributed 97% of total CED.Trauma patients received a statistically significant higher dose [median CED 7.7 mS v(IQR 3.5-13.8 mS v)] than medical [median CED 1.4 m Sv(IQR 0.05-5.4 m Sv)] and surgical [median CED 1.6 mS v(IQR 0.04-7.5 mS v)] patients.Length of stay in ICU [OR = 1.12(95%CI:1.079-1.157)] was identified as an independent predictor of receiving a CED greater than 15 mS v.CONCLUSION:Trauma patients and patients with extended ICU admission times are at increased risk of higher CEDs.CED should be minimized where feasible,especially in young patients.

  13. Estimating exposure of terrestrial wildlife to contaminants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sample, B.E.; Suter, G.W. II

    1994-09-01

    This report describes generalized models for the estimation of contaminant exposure experienced by wildlife on the Oak Ridge Reservation. The primary exposure pathway considered is oral ingestion, e.g. the consumption of contaminated food, water, or soil. Exposure through dermal absorption and inhalation are special cases and are not considered hereIN. Because wildlife mobile and generally consume diverse diets and because environmental contamination is not spatial homogeneous, factors to account for variation in diet, movement, and contaminant distribution have been incorporated into the models. To facilitate the use and application of the models, life history parameters necessary to estimate exposure are summarized for 15 common wildlife species. Finally, to display the application of the models, exposure estimates were calculated for four species using data from a source operable unit on the Oak Ridge Reservation.

  14. A semiparametric censoring bias model for estimating the cumulative risk of a false-positive screening test under dependent censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, Rebecca A; Miglioretti, Diana L

    2013-03-01

    False-positive test results are among the most common harms of screening tests and may lead to more invasive and expensive diagnostic testing procedures. Estimating the cumulative risk of a false-positive screening test result after repeat screening rounds is, therefore, important for evaluating potential screening regimens. Existing estimators of the cumulative false-positive risk are limited by strong assumptions about censoring mechanisms and parametric assumptions about variation in risk across screening rounds. To address these limitations, we propose a semiparametric censoring bias model for cumulative false-positive risk that allows for dependent censoring without specifying a fixed functional form for variation in risk across screening rounds. Simulation studies demonstrated that the censoring bias model performs similarly to existing models under independent censoring and can largely eliminate bias under dependent censoring. We used the existing and newly proposed models to estimate the cumulative false-positive risk and variation in risk as a function of baseline age and family history of breast cancer after 10 years of annual screening mammography using data from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. Ignoring potential dependent censoring in this context leads to underestimation of the cumulative risk of false-positive results. Models that provide accurate estimates under dependent censoring are critical for providing appropriate information for evaluating screening tests.

  15. Estimating Exposure of Terrestrial Wildlife to Contaminants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sample, B.E.

    1994-01-01

    This report presents a general model for exposure of terrestrial wildlife to contaminants (Sect. 2), methods for estimating parameters of the model (Sect. 3), species specific parameters for endpoint species on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (Sect. 4), and a sample application (Sect. 5). Exposure can be defined as the coincidence in both space and time of a receptor and a stressor, such that the receptor and stressor come into contact and interact (Risk Assessment Forum 1992). In the context of ecological risk assessment, receptors include all endpoint species or communities identified for a site [see Suter (1989) and Suter et al. (1994) for discussions of ecological endpoints for waste sites]. In the context of waste site assessments, stressors are chemical contaminations, and the contact and interaction are uptake of the contaminant by the receptor. Without sufficient exposure of the receptor to the contaminants, there is no ecological risk. Unlike some other endpoint assemblages, terrestrial wildlife are significantly exposed to contaminants in multiple media. They may drink or swim in contaminated water, ingest contaminated food and soil, and breath contaminated air. In addition, because most wildlife are mobile, moving among and within habitats, exposure is not restricted to a single location. They may integrate contamination from several spatially discrete sources. Therefore, exposure models for terrestrial wildlife must include multiple media. This document provides models and parameters for estimating exposure of birds and mammals. Reptiles and amphibians are not considered because few data exist with which to assess exposure to these organisms. In addition, because toxicological data are scarce for both classes, evaluation of the significance of exposure estimates is problematic. However, the general exposure estimation procedure developed herein for birds and mammals is applicable to reptiles and amphibians. Exposure models must be appropriate to the

  16. Head impact exposure in youth football: high school ages 14 to 18 years and cumulative impact analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Jillian E; Davenport, Elizabeth M; Golman, Adam J; Maldjian, Joseph A; Whitlow, Christopher T; Powers, Alexander K; Stitzel, Joel D

    2013-12-01

    Sports-related concussion is the most common athletic head injury with football having the highest rate among high school athletes. Traditionally, research on the biomechanics of football-related head impact has been focused at the collegiate level. Less research has been performed at the high school level, despite the incidence of concussion among high school football players. The objective of this study is to twofold: to quantify the head impact exposure in high school football, and to develop a cumulative impact analysis method. Head impact exposure was measured by instrumenting the helmets of 40 high school football players with helmet mounted accelerometer arrays to measure linear and rotational acceleration. A total of 16,502 head impacts were collected over the course of the season. Biomechanical data were analyzed by team and by player. The median impact for each player ranged from 15.2 to 27.0 g with an average value of 21.7 (±2.4) g. The 95th percentile impact for each player ranged from 38.8 to 72.9 g with an average value of 56.4 (±10.5) g. Next, an impact exposure metric utilizing concussion injury risk curves was created to quantify cumulative exposure for each participating player over the course of the season. Impacts were weighted according to the associated risk due to linear acceleration and rotational acceleration alone, as well as the combined probability (CP) of injury associated with both. These risks were summed over the course of a season to generate risk weighted cumulative exposure. The impact frequency was found to be greater during games compared to practices with an average number of impacts per session of 15.5 and 9.4, respectively. However, the median cumulative risk weighted exposure based on combined probability was found to be greater for practices vs. games. These data will provide a metric that may be used to better understand the cumulative effects of repetitive head impacts, injury mechanisms, and head impact exposure of

  17. Use of job-exposure matrices to estimate occupational exposure to pesticides: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carles, Camille; Bouvier, Ghislaine; Lebailly, Pierre; Baldi, Isabelle

    2017-03-01

    The health effects of pesticides have been extensively studied in epidemiology, mainly in agricultural populations. However, pesticide exposure assessment remains a key methodological issue for epidemiological studies. Besides self-reported information, expert assessment or metrology, job-exposure matrices still appear to be an interesting tool. We reviewed all existing matrices assessing occupational exposure to pesticides in epidemiological studies and described the exposure parameters they included. We identified two types of matrices, (i) generic ones that are generally used in case-control studies and document broad categories of pesticides in a large range of jobs, and (ii) specific matrices, developed for use in agricultural cohorts, that generally provide exposure metrics at the active ingredient level. The various applications of these matrices in epidemiological studies have proven that they are valuable tools to assess pesticide exposure. Specific matrices are particularly promising for use in agricultural cohorts. However, results obtained with matrices have rarely been compared with those obtained with other tools. In addition, the external validity of the given estimates has not been adequately discussed. Yet, matrices would help in reducing misclassification and in quantifying cumulated exposures, to improve knowledge about the chronic health effects of pesticides.

  18. Identification and Quantification of Cumulative Factors that Increase Environmental Exposures and Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evaluating the combined adverse effects of multiple stressors upon human health is an imperative component of cumulative risk assessment (CRA)1. In addition to chemical stressors, other non-chemical factors are also considered. For examples, smoking will elevate the risks of havi...

  19. High cumulative insulin exposure : a risk factor of atherosclerosis in type 1 diabetes?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muis, MJ; Bots, ML; Bilo, HJG; Hoogma, RPLM; Hoekstra, JBL; Grobbee, DE; Stolk, RP

    Background: Since insulin therapy might have an atherogenic effect, we studied the relationship between cumulative insulin dose and atherosclerosis in type 1 diabetes. We have focused on patients with type 1 diabetes instead of type 2 diabetes to minimise the effect of insulin resistance as a

  20. Approach for Estimating Exposures and Incremental Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Approach for Estimating Exposures and Incremental Health Effects from Lead During Renovation, Repair, and Painting Activities in Public and Commercial Buildings” (Technical Approach Document). Also available for public review and comment are two supplementary documents: the detailed appendices for the Technical Approach Document and a supplementary report entitled “Developing a Concentration-Response Function for Pb Exposure and Cardiovascular Disease-Related Mortality.” Together, these documents describes an analysis for estimating exposures and incremental health effects created by renovations of public and commercial buildings (P&CBs). This analysis could be used to identify and evaluate hazards from renovation, repair, and painting activities in P&CBs. A general overview of how this analysis can be used to inform EPA’s hazard finding is described in the Framework document that was previously made available for public comment (79 FR 31072; FRL9910-44). The analysis can be used in any proposed rulemaking to estimate the reduction in deleterious health effects that would result from any proposed regulatory requirements to mitigate exposure from P&CB renovation activities. The Technical Approach Document describes in detail how the analyses under this approach have been performed and presents the results – expected changes in blood lead levels and health effects due to lead exposure from renovation activities.

  1. Estimating the cumulative effects of the nature-based tourism in a coastal dolphin population from southern Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Jorge, Sergi; Louzao, Maite; Oro, Daniel; Pereira, Thalia; Corne, Chloe; Wijtten, Zeno; Gomes, Inês; Wambua, John; Christiansen, Fredrik

    2017-06-01

    Due to the growth of nature-based tourism worldwide, behavioural studies are needed to assess the impact of this industry on wildlife populations and understand their short-term effect. Tourism impact on dolphin populations remain poorly documented in developing countries. This study investigates the effects of nature-based tourism on the behaviour of the Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) in southern Kenya. We used Markov chain models to estimate transition probabilities between behavioural states in the presence and absence of tourist boats, and assess the overall behavioural budgets. Based on these data and the tourism intensity in the area, we quantified the potential tourist boat disturbance over the period 2006-2013. Our results demonstrated that tourist boat interactions affected dolphins' behavioural budgets, with a significant decrease in the overall amount of time travelling and an increase in diving. The average duration of travelling and resting decreased significantly in the presence of boats. Although the cumulative tourism exposure was not significant for the dolphin population at their current levels, these impacts should be taken into consideration with the potential tourism growth in the area. This is particularly important if tourism reaches periods of high intensity, as we have shown that these periods could have a significant impact for the species, particularly where home-range and core areas are highly overlap by this activity. Understanding the effect of human disturbance variations from previous years may help to predict the consequences on dolphin populations, towards achieving a more ecological and economic sustainability of the activity.

  2. Regional estimates of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon; de Elía, Ramón

    2016-05-01

    The Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE) measures the response of global temperatures to cumulative CO2 emissions. Although the TCRE is a global quantity, climate impacts manifest predominantly in response to local climate changes. Here we quantify the link between CO2 emissions and regional temperature change, showing that regional temperatures also respond approximately linearly to cumulative CO2 emissions. Using an ensemble of twelve Earth system models, we present a novel application of pattern scaling to define the regional pattern of temperature change per emission of CO2. Ensemble mean regional TCRE values range from less than 1 °C per TtC for some ocean regions, to more than 5 °C per TtC in the Arctic, with a pattern of higher values over land and at high northern latitudes. We find also that high-latitude ocean regions deviate more strongly from linearity as compared to land and lower-latitude oceans. This suggests that ice-albedo and ocean circulation feedbacks are important contributors to the overall negative deviation from linearity of the global temperature response to high levels of cumulative emissions. The strong linearity of the regional climate response over most land regions provides a robust way to quantitatively link anthropogenic CO2 emissions to local-scale climate impacts.

  3. Current and historical individual data about exposure of workers in the rayon industry to carbon disulfide and their validity in calculating the cumulative dose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göen, Thomas; Schramm, Axel; Baumeister, Thomas; Uter, Wolfgang; Drexler, Hans

    2014-08-01

    The objective of the study was to investigate how exposure to carbon disulfide (CS2) in a rayon-manufacturing plant has changed within two decades and whether it is possible to calculate valid data for the individual cumulative exposure. The data for CS2 concentration in air and biological exposure monitoring (2-thio-1,3-thiaxolidine-4-carboxylic acid (TTCA) in urine) from two cross-sectional studies, performed in 1992 (n = 362) and 2009 (n = 212) in a German rayon-manufacturing plant, were compared to data obtained from company-internal measurements between the studies. Using the data from the cross-sectional studies and company-internal data, cumulative external exposure and the cumulative internal exposure were calculated for each worker. External and internal CS2 exposure of the employees decreased from 1992 (medians 4.0 ppm and 1.63 mgTTCA/g creatinine) to 2009 (medians 2.5 ppm and 0.86 mg/g). However, company-internal CS2 data do not show a straight trend for this period. The annual medians of the company-internal measurement of external exposure to CS2 have varied between 2.7 and 8.4 ppm, in which median values exceeded 5 ppm generally since 2000. The annual medians for the company-internal biomonitoring assessment ranged between 1.2 and 2.8 mg/g creatinine. The cumulative CS2 exposure ranged from 8.5 to 869.5 ppm years for external exposure and between 1.30 and 176.2 mg/g creatinine years for the internal exposure. Significant correlations were found between the current air pollution and the internal exposure in 2009 but also between the cumulative external and internal CS2 exposure. Current exposure data, usually collected in cross-sectional studies, rarely allow a reliable statement on the cumulative dose, because of higher exposure in the past and of fluctuating courses of exposure. On the other hand, company-internal exposure data may be affected by non-representative measurement strategies. Some verification of the reliability of

  4. Occupational radon exposure and lung cancer mortality: estimating intervention effects using the parametric G formula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Jessie K.; McGrath, Leah J.; Buckley, Jessie P.; Schubauer-Berigan, Mary K.; Cole, Stephen R.; Richardson, David B.

    2015-01-01

    Background Traditional regression analysis techniques used to estimate associations between occupational radon exposure and lung cancer focus on estimating the effect of cumulative radon exposure on lung cancer, while public health interventions are typically based on regulating radon concentration rather than workers’ cumulative exposure. Moreover, estimating the direct effect of cumulative occupational exposure on lung cancer may be difficult in situations vulnerable to the healthy worker survivor bias. Methods Workers in the Colorado Plateau Uranium Miners cohort (N=4,134) entered the study between 1950 and 1964 and were followed for lung cancer mortality through 2005. We use the parametric g-formula to compare the observed lung cancer mortality to the potential lung cancer mortality had each of 3 policies to limit monthly radon exposure been in place throughout follow-up. Results There were 617 lung cancer deaths over 135,275 person-years of follow-up. With no intervention on radon exposure, estimated lung cancer mortality by age 90 was 16%. Lung cancer mortality was reduced for all interventions considered, and larger reductions in lung cancer mortality were seen for interventions with lower monthly radon exposure limits. The most stringent guideline, the Mine Safety and Health Administration standard of 0.33 working level months, reduced lung cancer mortality from 16% to 10% (risk ratio 0.67; 95% confidence interval 0.61, 0.73). Conclusions This work illustrates the utility of the parametric g-formula for estimating the effects of policies regarding occupational exposures, particularly in situations vulnerable to the healthy worker survivor bias. PMID:25192403

  5. Probabilistic assessment of the cumulative dietary acute exposure of the population of Denmark to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bodil Hamborg; Petersen, Annette; Christensen, Tue

    2009-01-01

    Organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides are acetylcholinesterase-inhibiting pesticides and as such have a common mode of action. We assessed the cumulative acute exposure of the population of Denmark to 25 organophosphorus and carbamate pesticide residues from the consumption of fruit, vegetables...... the nationwide dietary survey conducted in 2000-2002. Contributions from 43 commodities were included in the calculations. We used the relative potency factor (RPF) approach to normalize the toxicity of the various organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides to the two index compounds chlorpyriphos...

  6. Exposure estimates for workers in a facility expanding Libby vermiculite: updated values and comparison with original 1980 values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borton, Eric K; Lemasters, Grace K; Hilbert, Timothy J; Lockey, James E; Dunning, Kari K; Rice, Carol H

    2012-11-01

    Low cumulative fiber exposure (CFE) has been associated with health effects in a cohort exposed to Libby vermiculite. This study refines the original 1980 exposure estimates and compares the CFE results. Cumulative fiber exposure estimates were developed using three times more industrial hygiene measurements and long-term workers' input. New adjustments included vermiculite ore source, seasonal overtime hours, time spent in various tasks, and recollection of historical dustiness. The overall mean (95% confidence interval) CFE (n = 513) in 1980 (0.80 [0.69 to 0.93]) was statistically similar to the overall mean (95% confidence interval) CFE in 2010 (0.74 [0.61 to 0.90]). The mean CFE in the lowest exposure category (CFE estimate extended the upper bound of the range of previous estimates from 28.10 to 106.31 fiber-years/cm. The range of CFE values was expanded. These estimates may impact the understanding of Libby vermiculite health outcomes.

  7. Estimation of occupational cosmic radiation exposure among airline personnel: Agreement between a job-exposure matrix, aggregate, and individual dose estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talibov, Madar; Salmelin, Raili; Lehtinen-Jacks, Susanna; Auvinen, Anssi

    2017-04-01

    Job-exposure matrices (JEM) are used for exposure assessment in occupational studies, but they can involve errors. We assessed agreement between the Nordic Occupational Cancer Studies JEM (NOCCA-JEM) and aggregate and individual dose estimates for cosmic radiation exposure among Finnish airline personnel. Cumulative cosmic radiation exposure for 5,022 airline crew members was compared between a JEM and aggregate and individual dose estimates. The NOCCA-JEM underestimated individual doses. Intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.37, proportion of agreement 64%, kappa 0.46 compared with individual doses. Higher agreement was achieved with aggregate dose estimates, that is annual medians of individual doses and estimates adjusted for heliocentric potentials. The substantial disagreement between NOCCA-JEM and individual dose estimates of cosmic radiation may lead to exposure misclassification and biased risk estimates in epidemiological studies. Using aggregate data may provide improved estimates. Am. J. Ind. Med. 60:386-393, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Estimating equations for biomarker based exposure estimation under non-steady-state conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartell, Scott M; Johnson, Wesley O

    2011-06-13

    Unrealistic steady-state assumptions are often used to estimate toxicant exposure rates from biomarkers. A biomarker may instead be modeled as a weighted sum of historical time-varying exposures. Estimating equations are derived for a zero-inflated gamma distribution for daily exposures with a known exposure frequency. Simulation studies suggest that the estimating equations can provide accurate estimates of exposure magnitude at any reasonable sample size, and reasonable estimates of the exposure variance at larger sample sizes.

  9. Dose-Response Relationship between Cumulative Occupational Lead Exposure and the Associated Health Damages: A 20-Year Cohort Study of a Smelter in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yue; Gu, Jun-Ming; Huang, Yun; Duan, Yan-Ying; Huang, Rui-Xue; Hu, Jian-An

    2016-03-16

    Long-term airborne lead exposure, even below official occupational limits, has been found to cause lead poisoning at higher frequencies than expected, which suggests that China's existing occupational exposure limits should be reexamined. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 1832 smelting workers from 1988 to 2008 in China. These were individuals who entered the plant and came into continuous contact with lead at work for longer than 3 months. The dose-response relationship between occupational cumulative lead exposure and lead poisoning, abnormal blood lead, urinary lead and erythrocyte zinc protoporphyrin (ZPP) were analyzed and the benchmark dose lower bound confidence limits (BMDLs) were calculated. Statistically significant positive correlations were found between cumulative lead dust and lead fumes exposures and workplace seniority, blood lead, urinary lead and ZPP values. A dose-response relationship was observed between cumulative lead dust or lead fumes exposure and lead poisoning (p lead dust and fumes doses were 0.68 mg-year/m³ and 0.30 mg-year/m³ for lead poisoning, respectively. The BMDLs of workplace airborne lead concentrations associated with lead poisoning were 0.02 mg/m³ and 0.01 mg/m³ for occupational exposure lead dust and lead fume, respectively. In conclusion, BMDLs for airborne lead were lower than occupational exposure limits, suggesting that the occupational lead exposure limits need re-examination and adjustment. Occupational cumulative exposure limits (OCELs) should be established to better prevent occupational lead poisoning.

  10. Statistical estimation of ozone exposure metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankenship, Erin E.; Stefanski, L. A.

    Data from recent experiments at North Carolina State University and other locations provide a unique opportunity to study the effect of ambient ozone on the growth of clover. The data consist of hourly ozone measurements over a 140 day growing season at eight sites in the US, coupled with clover growth response data measured every 28 days. The objective is to model an indicator of clover growth as a function of ozone exposure. A common strategy for dealing with the numerous hourly ozone measurements is to reduce these to a single summary measurement, a so-called exposure metric, for the growth period of interest. However, the mean ozone value is not necessarily the best summarization, as it is widely believed that low levels of ozone have a negligible effect on growth, whereas peak ozone values are deleterious to plant growth. There are also suspected interactions with available sunlight, temperature and humidity. A number of exposure metrics have been proposed that reflect these beliefs by assigning different weights to ozone values according to magnitude, time of day, temperature and humidity. These weighting schemes generally depend on parameters that have, to date, been subjectively determined. We propose a statistical approach based on profile likelihoods to estimate the parameters in these exposure metrics.

  11. Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Dianna M.; Labiosa, William; Pearlstine, Leonard; Hallac, David; Strong, David; Hearn, Paul; Bernknopf, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

  12. Exposure assessment of the cumulative intake of pesticides with dissimilar mode of action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bodil Hamborg; Petersen, Annette; Christiansen, Sofie

    . In this study the effects of combined exposure from four endocrine disrupting pesticides have been investigated (procymidone, mancozeb, tebuconazole, and prochloraz). The four pesticides have dissimilar mode of actions. On the background of the potency for each pesticide to a given effect, a relative potency...

  13. Ozone pollution and ozone biomonitoring in European cities. Part I: Ozone concentrations and cumulative exposure indices at urban and suburban sites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klumpp, A.; Ansel, W.; Klumpp, G.

    2006-01-01

    based on hourly mean values, and cumulative ozone exposure indices (Accumulated exposure Over a Threshold of 40 ppb (AOT40), AOT20) were calculated. The diurnal profiles showed a characteristic pattern in most city centres, with minimum values in the early morning hours, a strong rise during the morning......, by contrast, maximum values were lower and diurnal variation was much smaller. Based on ozone concentrations as well as on cumulative exposure indices, a clear north-south gradient in ozone pollution, with increasing levels from northern and northwestern sites to central and southern European sites......, was observed. Only the Spanish cities did not fit this pattern; there, ozone levels were again lower than in central European cities, probably due to the direct influence of strong car traffic emissions. In general, ozone concentrations and cumulative exposure were significantly higher at suburban sites than...

  14. Estimating diesel fuel exposure for a plumber repairing an underground pipe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finn, Mary; Stenzel, Mark; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy

    2017-04-01

    We estimated the diesel fuel exposure of a plumber repairing an underground water line leak at a truck stop. The repair work was performed over three days during which the plumber spent most of his time in a pit filled with a mixture of water and diesel fuel. Thus, the plumber was exposed via both the inhalation and dermal routes. While previously asymptomatic, he was diagnosed with acute renal failure 35 days after working at this site. No measurements were available for estimating either inhalation or dermal exposures or the cumulative dose and, therefore, two different approaches were used that were based on simple models of the exposure scenario. The first approach used the ideal gas law with the vapor pressure of the diesel fuel mixture to estimate a saturation vapor concentration, while the second one used a mass balance of the petroleum hydrocarbon component of diesel fuel in conjunction with the Henry's Law constant for this mixture. These inhalation exposure estimates were then adjusted to account for the limited ventilation in a confined space. The inhalation exposure concentrations predicted when handling the water layer alone is much lower than that expected from the organic layer. This case study illustrates the large differences in inhalation exposure associated with volatile organic layers and aqueous solution containing these chemicals. The estimate of dermal exposure was negligible compared to the inhalation exposure because the skin presents a much smaller surface area of exposure to the contaminant compared to the lungs. The methodology presented here is useful for situations where little information is available for more formal mathematical exposure modeling, but where adjustments to the worst-case exposures, estimated simply, can provide reasonable exposure estimates.

  15. CUMEX: a cumulative hazard index for assessing limiting exposures to environmental pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, P.J.; Killough, G.G.; Parzyck, D.C.; Rohwer, P.S.; Rupp, e.M.; Whitfield, B.L.; Booth, R.S.; Raridon, R.J.

    1977-04-01

    A hazard index methodology called CUMEX has been developed for limiting human exposure to environmental pollutants. Hazard index is defined as Q/Q/sub L/ where Q is exposure or dose to total-body, organ or tissue from all environmental pathways and Q/sub L/ is a limit which should not be exceeded because of health risk to humans. Mathematical formulations for hazard indices are developed for each sampling medium corresponding to each effluent type. These hazard indices are accumulated into composite indices such that total human intake or dose would not exceed the health risk limit. Mathematical formulation for composite hazard indices or CUMEX indices for multiple pollutants are presented. An example CUMEX application to cadmium release from a smelter complex in East Helena, Montana demonstrates details of the methodology for a single pollutant where human intake occurs through inhalation and ingestion.

  16. Lead-Related Genetic Loci, Cumulative Lead Exposure and Incident Coronary Heart Disease: The Normative Aging Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisskopf, Marc G.; Sparrow, David; Schwartz, Joel; Hu, Howard; Park, Sung Kyun

    2016-01-01

    Background Cumulative exposure to lead is associated with cardiovascular outcomes. Polymorphisms in the δ-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase (ALAD), hemochromatosis (HFE), heme oxygenase-1 (HMOX1), vitamin D receptor (VDR), glutathione S-transferase (GST) supergene family (GSTP1, GSTT1, GSTM1), apolipoprotein E (APOE),angiotensin II receptor-1 (AGTR1) and angiotensinogen (AGT) genes, are believed to alter toxicokinetics and/or toxicodynamics of lead. Objectives We assessed possible effect modification by genetic polymorphisms in ALAD, HFE, HMOX1, VDR, GSTP1, GSTT1, GSTM1, APOE, AGTR1 and AGT individually and as the genetic risk score (GRS) on the association between cumulative lead exposure and incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events. Methods We used K-shell-X-ray fluorescence to measure bone lead levels. GRS was calculated on the basis of 22 lead-related loci. We constructed Cox proportional hazard models to compute adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident CHD. We applied inverse probability weighting to account for potential selection bias due to recruitment into the bone lead sub-study. Results Significant effect modification was found by VDR, HMOX1, GSTP1, APOE, and AGT genetic polymorphisms when evaluated individually. Further, the bone lead-CHD associations became larger as GRS increases. After adjusting for potential confounders, a HR of CHD was 2.27 (95%CI: 1.50–3.42) with 2-fold increase in patella lead levels, among participants in the top tertile of GRS. We also detected an increasing trend in HRs across tertiles of GRS (p-trend = 0.0063). Conclusions Our findings suggest that lead-related loci as a whole may play an important role in susceptibility to lead-related CHD risk. These findings need to be validated in a separate cohort containing bone lead, lead-related genetic loci and incident CHD data. PMID:27584680

  17. A semi-parametric censoring bias model for estimating the cumulative risk of a false-positive screening test under dependent censoring

    OpenAIRE

    Hubbard, Rebecca A.; Miglioretti, Diana L.

    2013-01-01

    False-positive test results are among the most common harms of screening tests and may lead to more invasive and expensive diagnostic testing procedures. Estimating the cumulative risk of a false-positive screening test result after repeat screening rounds is therefore important for evaluating potential screening regimens. Existing estimators of the cumulative false-positive risk are limited by strong assumptions about censoring mechanisms and parametric assumptions about variation in risk ac...

  18. Probabilistic acute risk assessment of cumulative exposure to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides from dietary vegetables and fruits in Shanghai populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fan; Yuan, Yaqun; Meng, Pai; Wu, Min; Li, Shuguang; Chen, Bo

    2017-05-01

    Organophosphorus pesticides (OPs) and carbamate pesticides (CPs) are among the most widely used pesticides in China, playing a major role in protecting agricultural commodities. In this study, we determined the cumulative acute exposure to OPs and CPs of Shanghai residents from vegetables and fruits (VFs). The food consumption data were obtained from the Shanghai Food Consumption Survey (SHFCS) of 2012-14 including a total of 1973 participants aged 2-90 years. The pesticide residue data were obtained from the Shanghai monitoring programme during 2008-11 with 34 organophosphates and 11 carbamates analysed in a total of 5335 samples of VFs. A probabilistic approach was performed as recommended by the EFSA, using the optimistic model with non-detects set as zero and with processing factors (PFs) being used and the pessimistic model with non-detects replaced by limit of detection (LOD) and without PFs. We used the relative potency factor (RPF) method to normalise the various pesticides to the index compound (IC) of methamidophos and chlorpyrifos separately. Only in the pessimistic model using methamidophos as the IC was there was small risk of exposure exceeding the ARfD (3 µg kg(-)(1) bw day(-)(1)) in the populations of preschool children (0.029%), school-age children (0.022%) and adults (0.002%). There were no risk of exposure exceeding the ARfD of methamidophos in the optimistic model and of chlorpyrifos (100 µg kg(-)(1) bw day(-)(1)) in both optimistic and pessimistic models in all three populations. Considering the Chinese habits of overwhelmingly eating processed food (vegetables being cooked, and fruits being washed or peeled), we conclude that little acute risk was found for the exposure to VF-sourced OPs and CPs in Shanghai.

  19. How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Wilker

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. Methods: We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. Results: All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. Conclusions: As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology.

  20. How to quantify exposure to traumatic stress? Reliability and predictive validity of measures for cumulative trauma exposure in a post-conflict population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilker, Sarah; Pfeiffer, Anett; Kolassa, Stephan; Koslowski, Daniela; Elbert, Thomas; Kolassa, Iris-Tatjana

    2015-01-01

    Background While studies with survivors of single traumatic experiences highlight individual response variation following trauma, research from conflict regions shows that almost everyone develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) if trauma exposure reaches extreme levels. Therefore, evaluating the effects of cumulative trauma exposure is of utmost importance in studies investigating risk factors for PTSD. Yet, little research has been devoted to evaluate how this important environmental risk factor can be best quantified. Methods We investigated the retest reliability and predictive validity of different trauma measures in a sample of 227 Ugandan rebel war survivors. Trauma exposure was modeled as the number of traumatic event types experienced or as a score considering traumatic event frequencies. In addition, we investigated whether age at trauma exposure can be reliably measured and improves PTSD risk prediction. Results All trauma measures showed good reliability. While prediction of lifetime PTSD was most accurate from the number of different traumatic event types experienced, inclusion of event frequencies slightly improved the prediction of current PTSD. Conclusions As assessing the number of traumatic events experienced is the least stressful and time-consuming assessment and leads to the best prediction of lifetime PTSD, we recommend this measure for research on PTSD etiology. PMID:26589255

  1. Age- and gender-specific estimates of cumulative CT dose over 5 years using real radiation dose tracking data in children

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Eunsol; Goo, Hyun Woo; Lee, Jae-Yeong [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-08-15

    It is necessary to develop a mechanism to estimate and analyze cumulative radiation risks from multiple CT exams in various clinical scenarios in children. To identify major contributors to high cumulative CT dose estimates using actual dose-length product values collected for 5 years in children. Between August 2006 and July 2011 we reviewed 26,937 CT exams in 13,803 children. Among them, we included 931 children (median age 3.5 years, age range 0 days-15 years; M:F = 533:398) who had 5,339 CT exams. Each child underwent at least three CT scans and had accessible radiation dose reports. Dose-length product values were automatically extracted from DICOM files and we used recently updated conversion factors for age, gender, anatomical region and tube voltage to estimate CT radiation dose. We tracked the calculated CT dose estimates to obtain a 5-year cumulative value for each child. The study population was divided into three groups according to the cumulative CT dose estimates: high, ≥30 mSv; moderate, 10-30 mSv; and low, <10 mSv. We reviewed clinical data and CT protocols to identify major contributors to high and moderate cumulative CT dose estimates. Median cumulative CT dose estimate was 5.4 mSv (range 0.5-71.1 mSv), and median number of CT scans was 4 (range 3-36). High cumulative CT dose estimates were most common in children with malignant tumors (57.9%, 11/19). High frequency of CT scans was attributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates in children with ventriculoperitoneal shunt (35 in 1 child) and malignant tumors (range 18-49). Moreover, high-dose CT protocols, such as multiphase abdomen CT (median 4.7 mSv) contributed to high cumulative CT dose estimates even in children with a low number of CT scans. Disease group, number of CT scans, and high-dose CT protocols are major contributors to higher cumulative CT dose estimates in children. (orig.)

  2. An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation

  3. Exposure estimate for FD&C colour additives for the US population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folmer, Daniel E.; Lee, Hyoung S.; Butts, Kyla M.; Carberry, Susan E.

    2016-01-01

    Dietary exposures to the seven food, drug, and cosmetic (FD&C) colour additives that are approved for general use in food in the United States were estimated for the US population (aged 2 years and older), children (aged 2–5 years) and teenage boys (aged 13–18 years) based on analytical levels of the FD&C colour additives in foods. Approximately 600 foods were chosen for analysis, based on a survey of product labels, for the levels of FD&C colour additives. Dietary exposure was estimated using both 2-day food consumption data from the combined 2007–10 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and 10–14-day food consumption data from the 2007–10 NPD Group, Inc. National Eating Trends – Nutrient Intake Database (NPD NET-NID). Dietary exposure was estimated at the mean and 90th percentile using three different exposure scenarios: low exposure, average exposure and high exposure, to account for the range in the amount of each FD&C colour additive for a given food. For all populations and all exposure scenarios, the highest cumulative eaters-only exposures in food were determined for FD&C Red No. 40, FD&C Yellow No. 5 and FD&C Yellow No. 6. In addition, the eaters-only exposure was estimated for individual food categories in order to determine which food categories contributed the most to the exposure for each FD&C colour additive. Breakfast Cereal, Juice Drinks, Soft Drinks, and Frozen Dairy Desserts/Sherbet (also referred to as Ice Cream, Frozen Yogurt, Sherbet (including Bars, Sticks, Sandwiches)) were the major contributing food categories to exposure for multiple FD&C colour additives for all three populations. PMID:27092991

  4. The In-Flight Estimation and Indication of Cumulative Fatigue Damage to Helicopter Gears,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-03-01

    AUTtHORITIES AND INDUSTRY Trans-Australia Airlines, Library Qantas Airways Limited - Gas & Fuel Corporation of Victoria, Manager Scientific Services SEC of Vic...aircraft in the fleet, were used to esti- mate the mean safe life. A statistical analysis 3 was developed whereby a tolerance limit on life, defined as...in the fleet and a subsequent ground station computer analysis along the lines indicated in Section 2.2.1 can be used to estimate the current alue of

  5. Cumulative exposure to ritonavir-boosted atazanavir is associated with cholelithiasis in patients with HIV-1 infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishijima, Takeshi; Shimbo, Takuro; Komatsu, Hirokazu; Hamada, Yohei; Gatanaga, Hiroyuki; Kikuchi, Yoshimi; Oka, Shinichi

    2014-05-01

    This study aimed to examine the effect of long-term treatment with ritonavir-boosted atazanavir (atazanavir/ritonavir) on cholelithiasis. A single-centre, cross-sectional study was conducted to elucidate the prevalence of cholelithiasis in patients with HIV-1 infection who underwent abdominal ultrasonography between January 2004 and March 2013. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to estimate the effects of >2 years of atazanavir/ritonavir exposure on cholelithiasis as the primary exposure. Of the 890 study patients, 84 (9.4%) had >2 years of atazanavir/ritonavir exposure. Cholelithiasis was twice as frequent in those treated for >2 years with atazanavir/ritonavir [15 (18%) of 84 patients] compared with those treated for 2 years of atazanavir/ritonavir exposure and cholelithiasis (OR = 2.216; 95% CI = 1.206-4.073; P = 0.010) and the association almost persisted in multivariate analysis (adjusted OR = 1.806; 95% CI = 0.922-3.537; P = 0.085). Long-term treatment (>2 years) with other commonly used protease inhibitors, such as ritonavir-boosted lopinavir and ritonavir-boosted darunavir, was not associated with cholelithiasis in univariate and multivariate analysis. Additional analysis showed that >1 year of exposure to atazanavir/ritonavir was significantly associated with cholelithiasis (OR = 1.857; 95% CI = 1.073-3.214; P = 0.027), whereas >1 year of exposure to ritonavir-boosted lopinavir and ritonavir-boosted darunavir was not. Long-term treatment of patients with HIV-1 infection for >2 years with atazanavir/ritonavir was associated with an increased risk of cholelithiasis compared with patients with shorter exposure. Long-term exposure to atazanavir/ritonavir appears to increase the risk of cholelithiasis in patients with HIV-1 infection.

  6. Using Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Models to Incorporate Chemical and Non-Chemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Pesticide Exposures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan I. Levy

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Cumulative risk assessment has been proposed as an approach to evaluate the health risks associated with simultaneous exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD models can allow for the inclusion and evaluation of multiple stressors, including non-chemical stressors, but studies have not leveraged PBPK/PD models to jointly consider these disparate exposures in a cumulative risk context. In this study, we focused on exposures to organophosphate (OP pesticides for children in urban low-income environments, where these children would be simultaneously exposed to other pesticides (including pyrethroids and non-chemical stressors that may modify the effects of these exposures (including diet. We developed a methodological framework to evaluate chemical and non-chemical stressor impacts on OPs, utilizing an existing PBPK/PD model for chlorpyrifos. We evaluated population-specific stressors that would influence OP doses or acetylcholinesterase (AChE inhibition, the relevant PD outcome. We incorporated the impact of simultaneous exposure to pyrethroids and dietary factors on OP dose through the compartments of metabolism and PD outcome within the PBPK model, and simulated combinations of stressors across multiple exposure ranges and potential body weights. Our analyses demonstrated that both chemical and non-chemical stressors can influence the health implications of OP exposures, with up to 5-fold variability in AChE inhibition across combinations of stressor values for a given OP dose. We demonstrate an approach for modeling OP risks in the presence of other population-specific environmental stressors, providing insight about co-exposures and variability factors that most impact OP health risks and contribute to children’s cumulative health risk from pesticides. More generally, this framework can be used to inform cumulative risk assessment for any compound impacted by

  7. Using Marginal Structural Modeling to Estimate the Cumulative Impact of an Unconditional Tax Credit on Self-Rated Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pega, Frank; Blakely, Tony; Glymour, M Maria; Carter, Kristie N; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2016-02-15

    In previous studies, researchers estimated short-term relationships between financial credits and health outcomes using conventional regression analyses, but they did not account for time-varying confounders affected by prior treatment (CAPTs) or the credits' cumulative impacts over time. In this study, we examined the association between total number of years of receiving New Zealand's Family Tax Credit (FTC) and self-rated health (SRH) in 6,900 working-age parents using 7 waves of New Zealand longitudinal data (2002-2009). We conducted conventional linear regression analyses, both unadjusted and adjusted for time-invariant and time-varying confounders measured at baseline, and fitted marginal structural models (MSMs) that more fully adjusted for confounders, including CAPTs. Of all participants, 5.1%-6.8% received the FTC for 1-3 years and 1.8%-3.6% for 4-7 years. In unadjusted and adjusted conventional regression analyses, each additional year of receiving the FTC was associated with 0.033 (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.047, -0.019) and 0.026 (95% CI: -0.041, -0.010) units worse SRH (on a 5-unit scale). In the MSMs, the average causal treatment effect also reflected a small decrease in SRH (unstabilized weights: β = -0.039 unit, 95% CI: -0.058, -0.020; stabilized weights: β = -0.031 unit, 95% CI: -0.050, -0.007). Cumulatively receiving the FTC marginally reduced SRH. Conventional regression analyses and MSMs produced similar estimates, suggesting little bias from CAPTs.

  8. Estimated Daily Intake and Cumulative Risk Assessment of Phthalates in the General Taiwanese after the 2011 DEHP Food Scandal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jung-Wei; Lee, Ching-Chang; Pan, Wen-Harn; Chou, Wei-Chun; Huang, Han-Bin; Chiang, Hung-Che; Huang, Po-Chin

    2017-03-01

    A food scandal occurred in Taiwan in 2011 because the DEHP (di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate) had been intentionally used in food products. We assessed the daily intakes (DIs) and cumulative risk of phthalates in Taiwan’s general population after the scandal. The DIs of 6 phthalates, including di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), di-iso-butyl phthalate (DiBP), and DEHP, were evaluated using urinary phthalate metabolites. Hazard quotients of phthalates classified as affecting the reproductive (HQrep) and hepatic (HQhep) systems were assessed using cumulative approach. The creatinine-based model showed that the highest DI values in children 7-to 12- years-old were for DEHP (males: median: 4.79 μg/kg bw/d; females: median: 2.62 μg/kg bw/d). The 95th percentile (P95) of HQrep values were all >1 in the 7- to 12-year-old and 18- to 40-year-old male groups. The P95 of HQhep values were all >1 in the 7- to 18- year-old male groups. Most of the HQrep was attributable to the HQs of DnBP and DiBP (53.9–84.7%), and DEHP contributed most to HQhep (83.1–98.6%), which reveals that DnBP, DiBP and DEHP were the main risk of phthalate exposure for Taiwanese. Taiwan’s general population is widely exposed to DnBP, DiBP and DEHP, especially for young children.

  9. Prenatal cocaine exposure: the role of cumulative environmental risk and maternal harshness in the development of child internalizing behavior problems in kindergarten.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eiden, Rina D; Godleski, Stephanie; Colder, Craig R; Schuetze, Pamela

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the associations between prenatal exposure to cocaine and other substances and child internalizing behavior problems at kindergarten. We investigated whether maternal harshness or cumulative environmental risk mediated or moderated this association. Participants consisted of 216 (116 cocaine exposed, 100 non-cocaine exposed) mother-infant dyads participating in an ongoing longitudinal study of prenatal cocaine exposure. Results indicated that, as hypothesized, maternal harshness moderated the association between prenatal cocaine exposure to child internalizing in kindergarten such that prenatal cocaine exposure increased risk for internalizing problems at high levels of maternal harshness from 7 to 36months and decreased risk at low levels of harshness. Contrary to hypothesis, the association between prenatal cocaine exposure and child internalizing in kindergarten was not mediated by maternal harshness or cumulative environmental risk. However, cumulative environmental risk (from 1month of child age to kindergarten) was predictive of child internalizing behavior problems at kindergarten. Results have implications for parenting interventions that may be targeted toward reducing maternal harshness in high risk samples characterized by maternal substance use in pregnancy.

  10. A network-based approach for estimating pedestrian journey-time exposure to air pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Gemma; Whyatt, J Duncan

    2014-07-01

    Individual exposure to air pollution depends not only upon pollution concentrations in the surrounding environment, but also on the volume of air inhaled, which is determined by an individual's physiology and activity level. This study focuses on journey-time exposure, using network analysis in a GIS environment to identify pedestrian routes between multiple origins and destinations throughout the city of Lancaster, North West England. For each segment of a detailed footpath network, exposure was calculated accounting for PM2.5 concentrations (estimated using an atmospheric dispersion model) and respiratory minute volume (varying between individuals and with slope). For each of the routes generated the cumulative exposure to PM2.5 was estimated, allowing for easy comparison between multiple routes. Significant variations in exposure were found between routes depending on their geography, as well as in response to variations in background concentrations and meteorology between days. Differences in physiological characteristics such as age or weight were also seen to impact journey-time exposure considerably. In addition to assessing exposure for a given route, the approach was used to identify alternative routes that minimised journey-time exposure. Exposure reduction potential varied considerably between days, with even subtle shifts in route location, such as to the opposite side of the road, showing significant benefits. The method presented is both flexible and scalable, allowing for the interactions between physiology, activity level, pollution concentration and journey duration to be explored. In enabling physiology and activity level to be integrated into exposure calculations a more comprehensive estimate of journey-time exposure can be made, which has potential to provide more realistic inputs for epidemiological studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Associations between socio-demographic characteristics and chemical concentrations contributing to cumulative exposures in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hongtai; Tornero-Velez, Rogelio; Barzyk, Timothy M

    2017-09-13

    Association rule mining (ARM) has been widely used to identify associations between various entities in many fields. Although some studies have utilized it to analyze the relationship between chemicals and human health effects, fewer have used this technique to identify and quantify associations between environmental and social stressors. Socio-demographic variables were generated based on U.S. Census tract-level income, race/ethnicity population percentage, education level, and age information from the 2010-2014, 5-Year Summary files in the American Community Survey (ACS) database, and chemical variables were generated by utilizing the 2011 National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) census tract-level air pollutant exposure concentration data. Six mobile- and industrial-source pollutants were chosen for analysis, including acetaldehyde, benzene, cyanide, particulate matter components of diesel engine emissions (namely, diesel PM), toluene, and 1,3-butadiene. ARM was then applied to quantify and visualize the associations between the chemical and socio-demographic variables. Census tracts with a high percentage of racial/ethnic minorities and populations with low income tended to have higher estimated chemical exposure concentrations (fourth quartile), especially for diesel PM, 1,3-butadiene, and toluene. In contrast, census tracts with an average population age of 40-50 years, a low percentage of racial/ethnic minorities, and moderate-income levels were more likely to have lower estimated chemical exposure concentrations (first quartile). Unsupervised data mining methods can be used to evaluate potential associations between environmental inequalities and social disparities, while providing support in public health decision-making contexts.Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology advance online publication, 13 September 2017; doi:10.1038/jes.2017.15.

  12. Estimating occupational beryllium exposure from compliance monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamm, Michele P; Burstyn, Igor

    2011-01-01

    Occupational exposure to beryllium is widespread and is a health risk. The objectives of this study were to develop plausible models to estimate occupational airborne beryllium exposure. Compliance monitoring data were obtained from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration for 12,148 personal measurements of beryllium exposure from 1979 to 2005. Industry codes were maintained as reported or collapsed based on the number of measurements per cell of a job-exposure matrix (JEM). Probability of exposure was predicted based on year, industry, job, and sampling duration. In these models, probability of exposure decreased over time, was highest in full-shift personal samples, and varied with industry and job. The probability of exposure was calculated using 6 JEMs, each providing similar rankings of the likelihood of non-negligible exposure to beryllium. These statistical models, with expert appraisal, are suitable for the assessment of the probability of elevated occupational exposure to beryllium.

  13. Development of a Prototype Optical Hydrogen Gas Sensor Using a Getter-Doped Polymer Transducer for Monitoring Cumulative Exposure: Preliminary Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Small IV, W; Maitland, D J; Wilson, T S; Bearinger, J P; Letts, S A; Trebes, J E

    2008-06-05

    A novel prototype optical sensor for monitoring cumulative hydrogen gas exposure was fabricated and evaluated. Chemical-to-optical transduction was accomplished by detecting the intensity of 670 nm laser light transmitted through a hydrogen getter-doped polymer film mounted at the end of an optical fiber; the transmittance of the composite film increased with uptake of hydrogen by the embedded getter. The composite film consisted of the hydrogen getter 1,4-bis(phenylethynyl)benzene, also known as DEB, with carbon-supported palladium catalyst embedded in silicone elastomer. Because the change in transmittance was irreversible and occurred continuously as the getter captured hydrogen, the sensor behaved like a dosimeter, providing a unique indication of the cumulative gas exposure.

  14. Exposure to phthalates in 5-6 years old primary school starters in Germany--a human biomonitoring study and a cumulative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Holger M; Wittassek, Matthias; Brüning, Thomas; Angerer, Jürgen; Heudorf, Ursel

    2011-06-01

    We determined the internal exposure of 111 German primary school starters by analyzing urinary metabolites of six phthalates: butyl benzyl phthalate (BBzP), di-iso-butyl phthalate (DiBP), di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), di (2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), di-iso-nonyl phthalate (DiNP) and di-iso-decylphthalate (DiDP). From the urinary metabolite levels, we calculated daily intakes and related these values to Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) values. By introducing the concept of a relative cumulative Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI(cum)) value, we tried to account for the cumulative exposure to several of the above-mentioned phthalates. The TDI(cum) was derived as follows: the daily intake (DI) calculated from the metabolite level was divided by the TDI for each phthalate; this ratio was multiplied by 100% indicating the TDI percentage for which the DI accounted. Finally the % TDIs of the different phthalates were totalled to get the TDI(cum). A TDI(cum) above 100% is a potential cause for concern. We confirmed the ubiquitous exposure of the children to all phthalates investigated. Exposures were within range of levels previously reported for GerES, albeit slightly lower. Regarding daily intakes, two children exceeded the TDI for DnBP, whereas one child closely approached the TDI for DEHP. 24% of the children exceeded the TDI(cum) for the three most critical phthalates: DEHP, DnBP and DiBP. Furthermore, 54% of the children had total exposures that used up more than 50% the TDI(cum). Therefore, the overall exposure to a number of phthalates, and the knowledge that these phthalates (and other anti-androgens) act in a dose-additive manner, urgently warrants a cumulative risk assessment approach.

  15. Estimated Environmental Exposures for MISSE-7B

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finckenor, Miria M.; Moore, Chip; Norwood, Joseph K.; Henrie, Ben; DeGroh, Kim

    2012-01-01

    This paper details the 18-month environmental exposure for Materials International Space Station Experiment 7B (MISSE-7B) ram and wake sides. This includes atomic oxygen, ultraviolet radiation, particulate radiation, thermal cycling, meteoroid/space debris impacts, and observed contamination. Atomic oxygen fluence was determined by measured mass and thickness loss of polymers of known reactivity. Diodes sensitive to ultraviolet light actively measured solar radiation incident on the experiment. Comparisons to earlier MISSE flights are discussed.

  16. Associations of cumulative Pb exposure and longitudinal changes in Mini-Mental Status Exam scores, global cognition and domains of cognition: The VA Normative Aging Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farooqui, Zishaan; Bakulski, Kelly M; Power, Melinda C; Weisskopf, Marc G; Sparrow, David; Spiro, Avron; Vokonas, Pantel S; Nie, Linda H; Hu, Howard; Park, Sung Kyun

    2017-01-01

    Lead (Pb) exposure has been associated with poorer cognitive function cross-sectionally in aging adults, however the association between cumulative Pb exposure and longitudinal changes in cognition is little characterized. In a 1993-2007 subcohort of the VA Normative Aging Study (Mini-mental status exam (MMSE) n=741; global cognition summary score n=715), we used linear mixed effects models to test associations between cumulative Pb exposure (patella or tibia bone Pb) and repeated measures of cognition (MMSE, individual cognitive tests, and global cognition summary). Cox proportional hazard modeling assessed the risk of an MMSE score falling below 25. Among men 51-98 at baseline, higher patella Pb concentration (IQR: 21μg/g) was associated with -0.13 lower baseline MMSE (95% CI: -0.25, -0.004) and faster longitudinal MMSE decline (-0.016 units/year, 95% CI: -0.032, -0.0004) over 15 years. Each IQR increase in patella Pb was associated with increased risk of a MMSE score below 25 (HR=1.21, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.49; p=0.07). There were no significant associations between Pb and global cognition (both baseline and longitudinal change). Patella Pb was associated with faster longitudinal decline in Word List Total Recall in the language domain (0.014 units/year, 95% CI: -0.026, -0.001) and Word List Delayed Recall in the memory domain (0.014 units/year, 95% CI: -0.027, -0.002). We found weaker associations with tibia Pb. Cumulative Pb exposure is associated with faster declines in MMSE and Word List Total and Delayed Recall tests. These findings support the hypothesis that Pb exposure accelerates cognitive aging. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Mesothelioma in a wine cellar man: detailed description of working procedures and past asbestos exposure estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemo, Alessandro; Silvestri, Stefano

    2014-11-01

    A pleural mesothelioma arose in an employee of a wine farm whose work history shows an unusual occupational exposure to asbestos. The information, gathered directly from the case and from a work colleague, clarifies some aspects of the use of asbestos in the process of winemaking which has not been previously reported in such details. The man had worked as a winemaker from 1960 to 1988 in a farm, which in those years produced around 2500 hectoliters of wine per year, mostly white. The wine was filtered to remove impurities; the filter was created by dispersing in the wine asbestos fibers followed by diatomite while the wine was circulating several times and clogging a prefilter made of a dense stainless steel net. Chrysotile asbestos was the sole asbestos mineralogical variety used in these filters and exposure could occur during the phase of mixing dry fibers in the wine and during the filter replacement. A daily and annual time weighted average level of exposure and cumulative dose have been estimated in the absence of airborne asbestos fiber monitoring performed in that workplace. Since 1993, the Italian National Mesothelioma Register, an epidemiological surveillance system, has recorded eight cases with at least one work period spent as winemaker. Four of them never used asbestos filters and presented exposures during other work periods, the other four used asbestos filters but had also other exposures in other industrial divisions. For the information hitherto available, this is the first mesothelioma case with exclusive exposure in the job of winemaking.

  18. A comparison of population air pollution exposure estimation techniques with personal exposure estimates in a pregnant cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannam, Kimberly; McNamee, Roseanne; De Vocht, Frank; Baker, Philip; Sibley, Colin; Agius, Raymond

    2013-08-01

    There is increasing evidence of the harmful effects for mother and fetus of maternal exposure to air pollutants. Most studies use large retrospective birth outcome datasets and make a best estimate of personal exposure (PE) during pregnancy periods. We compared estimates of personal NOx and NO2 exposure of pregnant women in the North West of England with exposure estimates derived using different modelling techniques. A cohort of 85 pregnant women was recruited from Manchester and Blackpool. Participants completed a time-activity log and questionnaire at 13-22 weeks gestation and were provided with personal Ogawa samplers to measure their NOx/NO2 exposure. PE was compared to monthly averages, the nearest stationary monitor to the participants' home, weighted average of the closest monitor to home and work location, proximity to major roads, as well as to background modelled concentrations (DEFRA), inverse distance weighting (IDW), ordinary kriging (OK), and a land use regression model with and without temporal adjustment. PE was most strongly correlated with monthly adjusted DEFRA (NO2r = 0.61, NOxr = 0.60), OK and IDW (NO2r = 0.60; NOxr = 0.62) concentrations. Correlations were stronger in Blackpool than in Manchester. Where there is evidence for high temporal variability in exposure, methods of exposure estimation which focus solely on spatial methods should be adjusted temporally, with an improvement in estimation expected to be better with increased temporal variability.

  19. Does exposure prediction bias health-effect estimation?: The relationship between confounding adjustment and exposure prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cefalu, Matthew; Dominici, Francesca

    2014-07-01

    In environmental epidemiology, we are often faced with 2 challenges. First, an exposure prediction model is needed to estimate the exposure to an agent of interest, ideally at the individual level. Second, when estimating the health effect associated with the exposure, confounding adjustment is needed in the health-effects regression model. The current literature addresses these 2 challenges separately. That is, methods that account for measurement error in the predicted exposure often fail to acknowledge the possibility of confounding, whereas methods designed to control confounding often fail to acknowledge that the exposure has been predicted. In this article, we consider exposure prediction and confounding adjustment in a health-effects regression model simultaneously. Using theoretical arguments and simulation studies, we show that the bias of a health-effect estimate is influenced by the exposure prediction model, the type of confounding adjustment used in the health-effects regression model, and the relationship between these 2. Moreover, we argue that even with a health-effects regression model that properly adjusts for confounding, the use of a predicted exposure can bias the health-effect estimate unless all confounders included in the health-effects regression model are also included in the exposure prediction model. While these results of this article were motivated by studies of environmental contaminants, they apply more broadly to any context where an exposure needs to be predicted.

  20. Estimation of patient exposure in dental radiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yasaki, Shiro; Yukishita, Kentaro; Daibo, Motoji; Suzuki, Yousuke [Ohu Univ., Koriyama, Fukushima (Japan). School of Dentistry

    1998-12-01

    Purpose of this study is to examine comparison of absorbed dose in each mode of newest Multimode Panoramic Radiography and Dental Radiography. The absorbed dose of Dental Radiography uses modified IWAI`s data. The effective doses were calculated using modified tissue weighting factors recommended by International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) in 1990. The result of estimate in effective dose, panoramic auto function mode (4.92 {mu}Sv) was lower than dental full mouth (43.12 {mu}Sv). And clinical effective dose was higher than the other`s modes, in linear tomogram modes. The absorbed dose of patient in Dental Radiography is decreasing in recent years. But in daily clinical work we should pay atteation to justification and optimization. (author)

  1. Evaluation of an artificial intelligence program for estimating occupational exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Karen L; Phillips, Margaret L; Esmen, Nurtan A; Hall, Thomas A

    2005-03-01

    Estimation and Assessment of Substance Exposure (EASE) is an artificial intelligence program developed by UK's Health and Safety Executive to assess exposure. EASE computes estimated airborne concentrations based on a substance's vapor pressure and the types of controls in the work area. Though EASE is intended only to make broad predictions of exposure from occupational environments, some occupational hygienists might attempt to use EASE for individual exposure characterizations. This study investigated whether EASE would accurately predict actual sampling results from a chemical manufacturing process. Personal breathing zone time-weighted average (TWA) monitoring data for two volatile organic chemicals--a common solvent (toluene) and a specialty monomer (chloroprene)--present in this manufacturing process were compared to EASE-generated estimates. EASE-estimated concentrations for specific tasks were weighted by task durations reported in the monitoring record to yield TWA estimates from EASE that could be directly compared to the measured TWA data. Two hundred and six chloroprene and toluene full-shift personal samples were selected from eight areas of this manufacturing process. The Spearman correlation between EASE TWA estimates and measured TWA values was 0.55 for chloroprene and 0.44 for toluene, indicating moderate predictive values for both compounds. For toluene, the interquartile range of EASE estimates at least partially overlapped the interquartile range of the measured data distributions in all process areas. The interquartile range of EASE estimates for chloroprene fell above the interquartile range of the measured data distributions in one process area, partially overlapped the third quartile of the measured data in five process areas and fell within the interquartile range in two process areas. EASE is not a substitute for actual exposure monitoring. However, EASE can be used in conditions that cannot otherwise be sampled and in preliminary

  2. Patient exposure: description of cumulative irradiation of patients treated in interventional cardiology; Exposition des patients: description de l'irradiation cumulee des patients traites en cardiologie interventionnelle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Odile Bernier, M.O. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, Laboratoire d ' Epidemiologie, 92 - Fontenay aux Roses (France)

    2009-07-01

    Despite its clinical benefits, interventional cardiology induces cumulative exposure to ionizing radiation and may entail an important irradiation of the patient at the cutaneous level as well as for organs at the vicinity of the heart. The author briefly reports a study performed on a sample of 1591 patients who have been submitted to at least one corono-graphy or one angioplasty during 2005. Based on clinical characteristics and dose-area-product measurements, the doses received by lung, oesophagus, bone medulla and breast have been computed

  3. Estimation of exposure distribution adjusting for association between exposure level and detection limit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yuchen; Shelton, Brent J; Tucker, Thomas T; Li, Li; Kryscio, Richard; Chen, Li

    2017-08-15

    In environmental exposure studies, it is common to observe a portion of exposure measurements to fall below experimentally determined detection limits (DLs). The reverse Kaplan-Meier estimator, which mimics the well-known Kaplan-Meier estimator for right-censored survival data with the scale reversed, has been recommended for estimating the exposure distribution for the data subject to DLs because it does not require any distributional assumption. However, the reverse Kaplan-Meier estimator requires the independence assumption between the exposure level and DL and can lead to biased results when this assumption is violated. We propose a kernel-smoothed nonparametric estimator for the exposure distribution without imposing any independence assumption between the exposure level and DL. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimator performs well in practical situations. A colon cancer study is provided for illustration. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Cumulative Effects of Prenatal Substance Exposure and Early Adversity on Foster Children's HPA-Axis Reactivity during a Psychosocial Stressor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Philip A.; Kim, Hyoun K.; Bruce, Jacqueline; Pears, Katherine C.

    2012-01-01

    Dysregulated hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis stress response has been reported among individuals with prenatal substance exposure and those with early adversity exposure. However, few researchers have examined the combined effects of these risk factors. Patterns of HPA reactivity among maltreated foster children with and without…

  5. Quantifying Chronic Stress Exposure for Cumulative Risk Assessment: Lessons Learned from a Case Study of Allostatic Load

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although multiple methods of quantifying environmental chemical exposures have been validated for use in human health risk assessment, quantifying chronic stress exposure is more challenging. Stress is a consequence of perceiving an “exposure” (e.g., violence, poverty) as more th...

  6. Cumulative Effects of Prenatal Substance Exposure and Early Adversity on Foster Children's HPA-Axis Reactivity during a Psychosocial Stressor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Philip A.; Kim, Hyoun K.; Bruce, Jacqueline; Pears, Katherine C.

    2012-01-01

    Dysregulated hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis stress response has been reported among individuals with prenatal substance exposure and those with early adversity exposure. However, few researchers have examined the combined effects of these risk factors. Patterns of HPA reactivity among maltreated foster children with and without…

  7. Estimated Environmental Exposures for MISSE-3 and MISSE-4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finckenor, Miria M.; Pippin, Gary; Kinard, William H.

    2008-01-01

    Describes the estimated environmental exposure for MISSE-2 and MISSE-4. These test beds, attached to the outside of the International Space Station, were planned for 3 years of exposure. This was changed to 1 year after MISSE-1 and -2 were in space for 4 years. MISSE-3 and -4 operate in a low Earth orbit space environment, which exposes them to a variety of assaults including atomic oxygen, ultraviolet radiation, particulate radiation, thermal cycling, and meteoroid/space debris impact, as well as contamination associated with proximity to an active space station. Measurements and determinations of atomic oxygen fluences, solar UV exposure levels, molecular contamination levels, and particulate radiation are included.

  8. A new DOA estimation algorithm based on fourth-order cumulant%一种新的基于四阶累积量的DOA估计算法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱敏; 何培宇

    2011-01-01

    A new algorithm based on fourth-order cumulant matrix is presented for uniform linear array.There are massive redundant data in the fourth-order cumulant matrix for MUSIC-like algorithm.So a new method of constructing the fourth-order cumulant matrix is created in the proposed algorithm.In the case of keeping the array extension ability, the fourth-order cumulant matrix constructed using the new method eliminates massive redundant data of the fourth-order cumulant matrix in MUSIC-like algorithm and reduces the order of the matrix.So compared with MUSIC-like algorithm, the proposed algorithm not only has the same performance of DOA estimation, but also brings the benefits of significant reduction of computational complexity.Computer simulations are carried out to illustrate the validity of the new method.%提出了一种新的用于均匀线阵的四阶累积量DOA估计算法.针对传统MUSIC-like算法中四阶累积量矩阵存在大量冗余信息的情况,本文算法提出了一种新的四阶累积量矩阵构造方法.用该方法构造的四阶累积量矩阵在保证阵列扩展性能的同时,去掉了MUSIC-like算法中四阶累积量矩阵的冗余信息,降低了矩阵的阶数.与MUSIC-like算法相比,本文算法的运算复杂度显著降低,但仍保持了同等的估计性能.实验仿真表明了提出方法的有效性.

  9. Radiologic imaging in cystic fibrosis: cumulative effective dose and changing trends over 2 decades.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Connell, Oisin J

    2012-06-01

    With the increasing life expectancy for patients with cystic fibrosis (CF), and a known predisposition to certain cancers, cumulative radiation exposure from radiologic imaging is of increasing significance. This study explores the estimated cumulative effective radiation dose over a 17-year period from radiologic procedures and changing trends of imaging modalities over this period.

  10. Estimating the relationship between exposure to tar volatiles and the incidence of bladder cancer in aluminum smelter workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, B G; Tremblay, C G; Cyr, D; Thériault, G P

    1986-10-01

    A previously reported case-referent study of 85 incident cases of bladder cancer among aluminum smelter workers and 255 matched referents revealed an excess risk among workers exposed to coal-tar pitch volatiles. For the study reported in the present investigation these data have been augmented by estimates of past workplace exposure to total tar (benzene-soluble matter) and to benzo-a-pyrene (BaP). From these new data, exposure-response relationships have been estimated by maximum likelihood. A linear relationship between cumulative exposure and relative risk and a minimum latency period of ten years were assumed on a priori grounds and found compatible with the data. Under these assumptions, relative risk increased for each year of exposure to benzene-soluble matter at a concentration of 1 mg/m3 by 13%, the 95% confidence interval being 5-31. The corresponding figure for BaP (as micrograms/m3 X year) was 2.3%. On the basis of these estimates, 40 years of exposure to benzene-soluble matter at the current exposure limit of 0.2 mg/m3 would lead to a relative risk of 2.4. There was suggestive but not conclusive evidence that relative risks due to exposure to tar volatiles and to cigarette smoke combined multiplicatively.

  11. Estimation of health effects for PM10 exposure using of Air Q model in Ahvaz City during 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gh. Goudarzi

    2015-08-01

    Conclusion: Using data processing in Excel, AirQ software calculates relative risks, attributable proportion, and baseline incidence and the final output would be displayed in the form of death toll. It is noteworthy that there is no model that can estimate the effect of all pollutants together and simultaneously. In addition, it was found that the annual PM10 emission mean, the summer mean, winter mean, and 98 percentile were 261, 376, 170, and 1268 μg/m3 in Ahvaz City. Cumulative number of persons for total number of deaths attributed to PM10 exposure was 1165 in 2009; Out of which, 44% has occurred in the days with concentrations lower than 250 μg/m3. It should be noted that 62% of this value is corresponded to the days with concentrations below 350 μg/m3. The total cumulative number of cardiovascular death attributed to the exposure with PM10 during one year of monitoring was 612 persons. On the other hand, 52% of these cases have occurred in days with PM10 levels not exceeding 300 μg/m3. Cumulative number of Hospital Admissions Respiratory Disease attributed to exposure with PM10 during one year of monitoring was 1551 persons; Out of which, 36 % occurred in days with PM10 levels not exceeding 200 μg/m3.

  12. Population estimates of Australian children's exposure to food and beverage sponsorship of sports clubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Bridget; Bauman, Adrian E; Baur, Louise A

    2014-07-01

    Sponsorship by manufacturers of unhealthy food can undermine the health promoting goals of sport. This study aimed to describe Australian children's exposure to organised sport, and compare time spent in specific sports with patterns of sponsorship of children's sport identified in previous studies. Cross-sectional survey on children's sport participation collected by proxy report using a random-digit-dialling survey of 3416 parents. Data from the 2009/10 Australian Sports Commission's Exercise, Recreation and Sport Survey were used to calculate weekly total person-time exposure to sports for Australian children, as a product of median weekly exposure (minutes) and the number of children participating. Exposures for children in NSW were calculated based on population distribution. Based on a previous survey of sport clubs in NSW, cumulative weekly exposure to food/beverage sponsorship at sports clubs was estimated for children living in NSW. 77.3% of Australian children aged 5-14 participated in organised sport. In NSW, weekly total person-time exposure for children was highest for outdoor soccer (91,200 children×median frequency of 2 sessions per week of 1h duration=182,400h/week). Considering rates of sponsorship at different sports, children would be exposed to food/beverage sponsorship to the greatest extent for rugby league and outdoor cricket. Children's high frequency of participation in organised sport and time spent engaging in these activities highlights the potentially huge reach of food/beverage sponsorship promotions. Policy interventions to limit children's exposure to this sponsorship should target those sports that have both the highest levels of children's participation and food/beverage sponsorship arrangements. Copyright © 2013 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Vermiculite worker mortality: estimated effects of occupational exposure to Libby amphibole.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Theodore C; Antao, Vinicius C; Bove, Frank J

    2010-05-01

    To examine the relationship between cumulative fiber exposure (CFE) and mortality in a retrospective cohort study of vermiculite workers exposed to Libby amphibole (n = 1862). Extended Cox regression was used to estimate the hazards associated with CFE as a time-dependent covariate of multiple-cause mortality. The Cox models for mesothelioma, asbestosis, lung cancer, and non-malignant respiratory disease were significant with rate ratios that increased monotonically with CFE. The model for deaths due to cardiovascular disease was also significant (rate ratio for CFE > or =44.0 f/cc-y vs CFE and mortality from asbestos-related causes. The finding of an association between CFE and cardiovascular mortality suggests persons exposed to Libby amphibole should be monitored for this outcome.

  14. Ergonomic risk exposure and upper-extremity cumulative trauma disorders in a maquiladora medical devices manufacturing plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meservy, D; Suruda, A J; Bloswick, D; Lee, J; Dumas, M

    1997-08-01

    Workers at a Nogales, Mexico, maquiladora plant that assembles medical devices were studied to determine the prevalence of upper-extremity cumulative trauma disorders (CTD). Subjects included production workers employed 6 months or longer; of the 148 eligible workers, 145 (98%) participated. Subjects had a mean age of 24.6 years (SD = 5.2; range, 17 to 45) and the mean length of employment was 3.5 years (SD = 2.5; range, 0.5 to 14). Job tasks were videotaped and analyzed for ergonomic risk factors, using pre-defined criteria. All jobs performed by study subjects were found to involve one or more ergonomic risk factors associated with the development of CTD. A CTD questionnaire and screening physical examination format, similar to that used by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) in a chicken processing plant study, were administered. Period prevalence of CTD within the previous year, as reported on the questionnaire, was 28%. Prevalence of CTD was 17%, using data from the screening physical examination. Point prevalence (current pain data from the questionnaire plus positive symptoms on the screening physical examination) was 15%. CTD was reported more frequently in women than men (46% and 25%, respectively; P < 0.05) and in subjects who had worked at the plant less than one year (50%; P < 0.05). Workforce turnover (3% monthly) may have resulted in those affected by CTD leaving employment, reducing the apparent CTD rate in experienced workers.

  15. Feasibility Study for Evaluating Cumulative Exposure of Downstream Migrant Juvenile Salmonids to Total Dissolved Gas. Final Report 1996.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abernethy, C.Scott; Dauble, Dennis D.; Johnson, Robert L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (United States)

    1997-11-01

    A feasibility study was initiated to determine if downstream migrant salmonids could be monitored to determine potential relationships between total dissolved gas (TDG) exposure and signs of gas bubble trauma (GBT). The primary objectives were to: (1) establish logistical requirements for in-river monitoring of TDG exposure, including net pen design, deployment, and navigation constraints; (2) resolve uncertainties associated with effects of the net pen on fish behavior; (3) test the accuracy and precision of in-river monitoring equipment used to measure fish distribution and water quality; and (4) determine the application of hydrologic/flow models to predictions of TDG exposure. In-river measurements included water velocity, boat position, and selected water quality parameters (temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, depth, conductivity). Fish distribution within the net pen was monitored using scanning sonar, and a split-beam echo sounder was used to evaluate vertical distribution of fish m in the river adjacent to the net pen. Three test drifts were conducted from late July through late August. The studies demonstrated that it was feasible to assemble and deploy a large net pen for mobile monitoring of TDG exposure. Accurate monitoring of vertical and lateral distribution of smolts was performed, and diel differences in behavior were documented. Further, the fish sounded in response to researcher activity on the perimeter platform. Thus, in-transit monitoring for GBT or mortality would affect fish depth distribution and exposure to TDG. Principal recommendations for future studies are directed at improving maneuverability of the net pen in adverse weather conditions and applying new acoustics technology to simultaneously collect fish distribution data from within and outside of the pen. 6 refs., 17 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. The effects of increased constant incubation temperature and cumulative acute heat shock exposures on morphology and survival of Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) embryos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Abigail H; Eme, John; Mueller, Casey A; Manzon, Richard G; Somers, Christopher M; Boreham, Douglas R; Wilson, Joanna Y

    2016-04-01

    Increasing incubation temperatures, caused by global climate change or thermal effluent from industrial processes, may influence embryonic development of fish. This study investigates the cumulative effects of increased incubation temperature and repeated heat shocks on developing Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) embryos. We studied the effects of three constant incubation temperatures (2°C, 5°C or 8°C water) and weekly, 1-h heat shocks (+3°C) on hatching time, survival and morphology of embryos, as these endpoints may be particularly susceptible to temperature changes. The constant temperatures represent the predicted magnitude of elevated water temperatures from climate change and industrial thermal plumes. Time to the pre-hatch stage decreased as constant incubation temperature increased (148d at 2°C, 92d at 5°C, 50d at 8°C), but weekly heat shocks did not affect time to hatch. Mean survival rates and embryo morphometrics were compared at specific developmental time-points (blastopore, eyed, fin flutter and pre-hatch) across all treatments. Constant incubation temperatures or +3°C heat-shock exposures did not significantly alter cumulative survival percentage (~50% cumulative survival to pre-hatch stage). Constant warm incubation temperatures did result in differences in morphology in pre-hatch stage embryos. 8°C and 5°C embryos were significantly smaller and had larger yolks than 2°C embryos, but heat-shocked embryos did not differ from their respective constant temperature treatment groups. Elevated incubation temperatures may adversely alter Lake Whitefish embryo size at hatch, but weekly 1-h heat shocks did not affect size or survival at hatch. These results suggest that intermittent bouts of warm water effluent (e.g., variable industrial emissions) are less likely to negatively affect Lake Whitefish embryonic development than warmer constant incubation temperatures that may occur due to climate change.

  17. Estimated exposure to phthalates in cosmetics and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Hyun Jung; Lee, Byung Mu

    2004-12-01

    Some phthalates such as di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) and dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and their metabolites are suspected of producing teratogenic or endocrine-disrupting effects. To predict possible human exposure to phthalates in cosmetics, the levels of DEHP, diethyl phthalate (DEP), DBP, and butylbenzyl phthalate (BBP) were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) in 102 branded hair sprays, perfumes, deodorants, and nail polishes. DBP was detected in 19 of the 21 nail polishes and in 11 of the 42 perfumes, and DEP was detected in 24 of the 42 perfumes and 2 of the 8 deodorants. Median exposure levels to phthalates in cosmetics by dermal absorption were estimated to be 0.0006 g/kg body weight (bw)/d for DEHP, 0.6 g/kg bw/d for DEP, and 0.103 g/kg bw/d for DBP. Furthermore, if phthalates in cosmetics were assumed to be absorbed exclusively via 100% inhalation, the median daily exposure levels to phthalates in cosmetics were estimated to be 0.026 g/kg bw/d for DEHP, 81.471 g/kg bw/d for DEP, and 22.917 g/kg bw/d for DBP, which are far lower than the regulation levels set buy the Scientific Committee on Toxicity, Ecotoxicity, and the Environment (CSTEE) (37 g/kg bw/d, DEHP), Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) (7000 g/kg bw/d, DEP), and International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS) (66 g/kg bw/d, DBP), respectively. Based on these data, hazard indices (HI, daily exposure level/regulation level) were calculated to be 0.0007 for DEHP, 0.012 for DEP, and 0.347 for DBP. These data suggest that estimated exposure to-phthalates in the cosmetics mentioned are relatively small. However, total exposure levels from several sources may be greater and require further investigation.

  18. New approaches to uncertainty analysis for use in aggregate and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kennedy, M.C.; Voet, van der H.; Roelofs, V.J.; Roelofs, W.; Glass, C.R.; Boer, de W.J.; Kruisselbrink, J.W.; Hart, A.D.M.

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessments for human exposures to plant protection products (PPPs) have traditionally focussed on single routes of exposure and single compounds. Extensions to estimate aggregate (multi-source) and cumulative (multi-compound) exposure from PPPs present many new challenges and additional uncert

  19. Estimation of current cumulative incidence of leukaemia-free patients and current leukaemia-free survival in chronic myeloid leukaemia in the era of modern pharmacotherapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trněný Marek

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The current situation in the treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML presents a new challenge for attempts to measure the therapeutic results, as the CML patients can experience multiple leukaemia-free periods during the course of their treatment. Traditional measures of treatment efficacy such as leukaemia-free survival and cumulative incidence are unable to cope with multiple events in time, e.g. disease remissions or progressions, and as such are inappropriate for the efficacy assessment of the recent CML treatment. Methods Standard nonparametric statistical methods are used for estimating two principal characteristics of the current CML treatment: the probability of being alive and leukaemia-free in time after CML therapy initiation, denoted as the current cumulative incidence of leukaemia-free patients; and the probability that a patient is alive and in any leukaemia-free period in time after achieving the first leukaemia-free period on the CML treatment, denoted as the current leukaemia-free survival. The validity of the proposed methods is further documented in the data of the Czech CML patients consecutively recorded between July 2003 and July 2009 as well as in simulated data. Results The results have shown a difference between the estimates of the current cumulative incidence function and the common cumulative incidence of leukaemia-free patients, as well as between the estimates of the current leukaemia-free survival and the common leukaemia-free survival. Regarding the currently available follow-up period, both differences have reached the maximum (12.8% and 20.8%, respectively at 3 years after the start of follow-up, i.e. after the CML therapy initiation in the former case and after the first achievement of the disease remission in the latter. Conclusions Two quantities for the evaluation of the efficacy of current CML therapy that may be estimated with standard nonparametric methods have been proposed in

  20. Cumulative exposure to work-related traumatic events and current post-traumatic stress disorder in New York City's first responders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geronazzo-Alman, Lupo; Eisenberg, Ruth; Shen, Sa; Duarte, Cristiane S; Musa, George J; Wicks, Judith; Fan, Bin; Doan, Thao; Guffanti, Guia; Bresnahan, Michaeline; Hoven, Christina W

    2017-04-01

    Cumulative exposure to work-related traumatic events (CE) is a foreseeable risk for psychiatric disorders in first responders (FRs). Our objective was to examine the impact of work-related CE that could serve as predictor of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and/or depression in FRs. Cross-sectional examination of previous CE and past-month PTSD outcomes and depression in 209 FRs. Logistic (probable PTSD; probable depression) and Poisson regressions (PTSD score) of the outcomes on work-related CE indexes, adjusting for demographic variables. Differences across occupational groups were also examined. Receiver operating characteristic analysis determined the sensitivity and specificity of CE indexes. All indexes were significantly and differently associated with PTSD; associations with depression were non-significant. The index capturing the sheer number of different incidents experienced regardless of frequency ('Variety') showed conceptual, practical and statistical advantages compared to other indexes. In general, the indexes showed poor to fair discrimination accuracy. Work-related CE is specifically associated with PTSD. Focusing on the variety of exposures may be a simple and effective strategy to predict PTSD in FRs. Further research on sensitivity and specificity of exposure indexes, preferably examined prospectively, is needed and could lead to early identification of individuals at risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Effects of Exposure Imprecision on Estimation of the Benchmark Dose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben; Keiding, Niels; Grandjean, Philippe

    Environmental epidemiology; exposure measurement error; effect of prenatal mercury exposure; exposure standards; benchmark dose......Environmental epidemiology; exposure measurement error; effect of prenatal mercury exposure; exposure standards; benchmark dose...

  2. Risk Estimation with Epidemiologic Data When Response Attenuates at High-Exposure Levels

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kyle Steenland; Ryan Seals; Mitch Klein; Jennifer Jinot; Henry D. Kahn

    2011-01-01

    Background: In occupational studies, which are commonly used for risk assessment for environmental settings, estimated exposure-response relationships often attenuate at high exposures. Relative risk (RR...

  3. Estimation of exposure to toxic releases using spatial interaction modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conley Jamison F

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Toxic Release Inventory (TRI data are frequently used to estimate a community's exposure to pollution. However, this estimation process often uses underdeveloped geographic theory. Spatial interaction modeling provides a more realistic approach to this estimation process. This paper uses four sets of data: lung cancer age-adjusted mortality rates from the years 1990 through 2006 inclusive from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER database, TRI releases of carcinogens from 1987 to 1996, covariates associated with lung cancer, and the EPA's Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI model. Results The impact of the volume of carcinogenic TRI releases on each county's lung cancer mortality rates was calculated using six spatial interaction functions (containment, buffer, power decay, exponential decay, quadratic decay, and RSEI estimates and evaluated with four multivariate regression methods (linear, generalized linear, spatial lag, and spatial error. Akaike Information Criterion values and P values of spatial interaction terms were computed. The impacts calculated from the interaction models were also mapped. Buffer and quadratic interaction functions had the lowest AIC values (22298 and 22525 respectively, although the gains from including the spatial interaction terms were diminished with spatial error and spatial lag regression. Conclusions The use of different methods for estimating the spatial risk posed by pollution from TRI sites can give different results about the impact of those sites on health outcomes. The most reliable estimates did not always come from the most complex methods.

  4. Comparison of modeling approaches to prioritize chemicals based on estimates of exposure and exposure potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Jade; Arnot, Jon A.; Jolliet, Olivier; Georgopoulos, Panos G.; Isukapalli, Sastry; Dasgupta, Surajit; Pandian, Muhilan; Wambaugh, John; Egeghy, Peter; Cohen Hubal, Elaine A.; Vallero, Daniel A.

    2014-01-01

    While only limited data are available to characterize the potential toxicity of over 8 million commercially available chemical substances, there is even less information available on the exposure and use-scenarios that are required to link potential toxicity to human and ecological health outcomes. Recent improvements and advances such as high throughput data gathering, high performance computational capabilities, and predictive chemical inherency methodology make this an opportune time to develop an exposure-based prioritization approach that can systematically utilize and link the asymmetrical bodies of knowledge for hazard and exposure. In response to the US EPA’s need to develop novel approaches and tools for rapidly prioritizing chemicals, a “Challenge” was issued to several exposure model developers to aid the understanding of current systems in a broader sense and to assist the US EPA’s effort to develop an approach comparable to other international efforts. A common set of chemicals were prioritized under each current approach. The results are presented herein along with a comparative analysis of the rankings of the chemicals based on metrics of exposure potential or actual exposure estimates. The analysis illustrates the similarities and differences across the domains of information incorporated in each modeling approach. The overall findings indicate a need to reconcile exposures from diffuse, indirect sources (far-field) with exposures from directly, applied chemicals in consumer products or resulting from the presence of a chemical in a microenvironment like a home or vehicle. Additionally, the exposure scenario, including the mode of entry into the environment (i.e. through air, water or sediment) appears to be an important determinant of the level of agreement between modeling approaches. PMID:23707726

  5. Cumulative exposure to childhood adversity, and treated attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder: a cohort study of 543 650 adolescents and young adults in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björkenstam, E; Björkenstam, C; Jablonska, B; Kosidou, K

    2017-07-25

    Though childhood adversity (CA) has been associated with the risk of attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), little is known about the effect of cumulative CAs and whether there are clusters of CAs that are more closely related with ADHD. We used a Swedish cohort of 543 650 individuals born 1987-1991. Register-based CAs included familial death, substantial parental substance abuse and psychiatric disorder, substantial parental criminality, parental separation, household public assistance recipiency, and residential instability. Individuals were followed from year 2006 when they were 15-19 years of age, for treated ADHD, defined as a registered ICD diagnosis and/or prescription of medications to treat ADHD. Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Latent Class Analyses (LCA) were used to identify clusters based on the different CAs. All CAs increased the odds of ADHD in late adolescence and early adulthood; ORs ranged from 1.6 (95% CI 1.5-1.8) for familial death to 2.7 (95% CI 2.6-2.9) for household public assistance. We found a dose-response relationship between cumulative CA and ADHD; individuals with 4+ CAs had a markedly increased risk for ADHD (OR 5.5, 95% CI 5.0-6.0). LCA analyses revealed six distinct classes of CA associated with ADHD, of which 'exposure to most adversities' entailed highest risk. CA is a strong risk factor for ADHD, particularly when accumulated. Early and efficient detection of CA is of importance for interventions targeted to improve long-term mental health outcomes among disadvantaged children.

  6. Development of a Job-Exposure Matrix (AsbJEM) to Estimate Occupational Exposure to Asbestos in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oyen, Svein C; Peters, Susan; Alfonso, Helman; Fritschi, Lin; de Klerk, Nicholas H; Reid, Alison; Franklin, Peter; Gordon, Len; Benke, Geza; Musk, Arthur W

    2015-07-01

    Occupational exposure data on asbestos are limited and poorly integrated in Australia so that estimates of disease risk and attribution of disease causation are usually calculated from data that are not specific for local conditions. To develop a job-exposure matrix (AsbJEM) to estimate occupational asbestos exposure levels in Australia, making optimal use of the available exposure data. A dossier of all available exposure data in Australia and information on industry practices and controls was provided to an expert panel consisting of three local industrial hygienists with thorough knowledge of local and international work practices. The expert panel estimated asbestos exposures for combinations of occupation, industry, and time period. Intensity and frequency grades were estimated to enable the calculation of annual exposure levels for each occupation-industry combination for each time period. Two indicators of asbestos exposure intensity (mode and peak) were used to account for different patterns of exposure between occupations. Additionally, the probable type of asbestos fibre was determined for each situation. Asbestos exposures were estimated for 537 combinations of 224 occupations and 60 industries for four time periods (1943-1966; 1967-1986; 1987-2003; ≥2004). Workers in the asbestos manufacturing, shipyard, and insulation industries were estimated to have had the highest average exposures. Up until 1986, 46 occupation-industry combinations were estimated to have had exposures exceeding the current Australian exposure standard of 0.1 f ml(-1). Over 90% of exposed occupations were considered to have had exposure to a mixture of asbestos varieties including crocidolite. The AsbJEM provides empirically based quantified estimates of asbestos exposure levels for Australian jobs since 1943. This exposure assessment application will contribute to improved understanding and prediction of asbestos-related diseases and attribution of disease causation. © The

  7. Estimation of Chronic Personal Exposure to Airborne Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hyunok; Zdeb, Michael; Perera, Frederica; Spengler, John

    2015-01-01

    Background Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) exposure from solid fuel burning represents an important public health issue for the majority of the global population. Yet, understanding of individual-level exposures remains limited. Objectives To develop regionally adaptable chronic personal exposure model to pro-carcinogenic PAH (c-PAH) for the population in Kraków, Poland. Methods We checked the assumption of spatial uniformity in eight c-PAH using the coefficients of divergence (COD), a marker of absolute concentration differences. Upon successful validation, we developed personal exposure models for eight pro-carcinogenic PAH by integrating individual-level data with area-level meteorological or pollutant data. We checked the resulting model for accuracy and precision against home outdoor monitoring data. Results During winter, COD of 0.1 for Kraków suggest overall spatial uniformity in the ambient concentration of the eight c-PAH. The three models that we developed were associated with index of agreement approximately equal to 0.9, root mean square error < 2.6 ng/m3, and 90th percentile of absolute difference ≤ 4 ng/m3 for the predicted and the observed concentrations for eight pro-carcinogenic PAH. Conclusions Inexpensive and logistically feasible information could be used to estimate chronic personal exposure to PAH profiles, in lieu of costly and labor-intensive personal air monitoring at wide scale. At the same time, thorough validation through direct personal monitoring and assumption checking are critical for successful model development. PMID:25965038

  8. A New Estimate for Total Offset on the Southern San Andreas Fault: Implications for Cumulative Plate Boundary Shear in the Northern Gulf of California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darin, M. H.; Dorsey, R. J.

    2012-12-01

    Development of a consistent and balanced tectonic reconstruction for the late Cenozoic San Andreas fault (SAF) in southern California has been hindered for decades by incompatible estimates of total dextral offset based on different geologic cross-fault markers. The older estimate of 240-270 km is based on offset fluvial conglomerates of the middle Miocene Mint Canyon and Caliente Formations west of the SAF from their presumed source area in the northern Chocolate Mountains NE of the SAF (Ehlig et al., 1975; Ehlert, 2003). The second widely cited offset marker is a distinctive Triassic megaporphyritic monzogranite that has been offset 160 ± 10 km between Liebre Mountain west of the SAF and the San Bernadino Mountains (Matti and Morton, 1993). In this analysis we use existing paleocurrent data and late Miocene clockwise rotation in the eastern Transverse Ranges (ETR) to re-assess the orientation of the piercing line used in the 240 km-correlation, and present a palinspastic reconstruction that satisfies all existing geologic constraints. Our reconstruction of the Mint Canyon piercing line reduces the original estimate of 240-270 km to 195 ± 15 km of cumulative right-lateral slip on the southern SAF (sensu stricto), which is consistent with other published estimates of 185 ± 20 km based on correlative basement terranes in the Salton Trough region. Our estimate of ~195 km is consistent with the lower estimate of ~160 km on the Mojave segment because transform-parallel extension along the southwestern boundary of the ETR during transrotation produces ~25-40 km of displacement that does not affect offset markers of the Liebre/San Bernadino correlation located northwest of the ETR rotating domain. Reconciliation of these disparate estimates places an important new constraint on the total plate boundary shear that is likely accommodated in the adjacent northern Gulf of California. Global plate circuit models require ~650 km of cumulative Pacific-North America (PAC

  9. Cancer risk estimation caused by radiation exposure during endovascular procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Y. H.; Cho, J. H.; Yun, W. S.; Park, K. H.; Kim, H. G.; Kwon, S. M.

    2014-05-01

    The objective of this study was to identify the radiation exposure dose of patients, as well as staff caused by fluoroscopy for C-arm-assisted vascular surgical operation and to estimate carcinogenic risk due to such exposure dose. The study was conducted in 71 patients (53 men and 18 women) who had undergone vascular surgical intervention at the division of vascular surgery in the University Hospital from November of 2011 to April of 2012. It had used a mobile C-arm device and calculated the radiation exposure dose of patient (dose-area product, DAP). Effective dose was measured by attaching optically stimulated luminescence on the radiation protectors of staff who participates in the surgery to measure the radiation exposure dose of staff during the vascular surgical operation. From the study results, DAP value of patients was 308.7 Gy cm2 in average, and the maximum value was 3085 Gy cm2. When converted to the effective dose, the resulted mean was 6.2 m Gy and the maximum effective dose was 61.7 milliSievert (mSv). The effective dose of staff was 3.85 mSv; while the radiation technician was 1.04 mSv, the nurse was 1.31 mSv. All cancer incidences of operator are corresponding to 2355 persons per 100,000 persons, which deemed 1 of 42 persons is likely to have all cancer incidences. In conclusion, the vascular surgeons should keep the radiation protection for patient, staff, and all participants in the intervention in mind as supervisor of fluoroscopy while trying to understand the effects by radiation by themselves to prevent invisible danger during the intervention and to minimize the harm.

  10. UBIQUITOUS POLLUTANTS FROM CUMULATIVE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The occurrence of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPS) as environmental pollutants is a multifaceted issue whose scope continues to become better delineated since the escalation of concerted attention beginning in the 1980s. PPCPs typically occur as trace environmental pollutants (primarily in surface but also in ground waters) as a result of their widespread, continuous, combined usage in a broad range of human and veterinary therapeutic activities and practices. With respect to the risk-assessment paradigm, the growing body of published work has focused primarily on the origin and occurrence of these substances. Comparatively less is known about human and ecological exposure, and even less about the known or even potential hazards associated with exposure to these anthropogenic substances, many of which are highly bioactive. The continually growing, worldwide importance of freshwater resources underscores the need for ensuring that any aggregate or cumulative impacts on water supplies and resultant potential for human or ecological exposure be minimized. This has prompted the more recent investigations on waste treatment processes for one of the major sources of environmental disposition, namely sewage. Despite the paucity of health effects data for long-term, simultaneous exposure to multiple xenobiotics (particularly PPCPS) at low doses (a major toxicological issue that can be described by the

  11. Accounting for Outcome Misclassification in Estimates of the Effect of Occupational Asbestos Exposure on Lung Cancer Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Jessie K.; Cole, Stephen R.; Chu, Haitao; Olshan, Andrew F.; Richardson, David B.

    2014-01-01

    In studies of the health effects of asbestos, lung cancer death is subject to misclassification. We used modified maximum likelihood to explore the effects of outcome misclassification on the rate ratio of lung cancer death per 100 fiber-years per milliliter of cumulative asbestos exposure in a cohort study of textile workers in Charleston, South Carolina, followed from 1940 to 2001. The standard covariate-adjusted estimate of the rate ratio was 1.94 (95% confidence interval: 1.55, 2.44), and modified maximum likelihood produced similar results when we assumed that the specificity of outcome classification was 0.98. With sensitivity assumed to be 0.80 and specificity assumed to be 0.95, estimated rate ratios were further from the null and less precise (rate ratio = 2.17; 95% confidence interval: 1.59, 2.98). In the present context, standard estimates for the effect of asbestos on lung cancer death were similar to estimates accounting for the limited misclassification. However, sensitivity analysis using modified maximum likelihood was needed to verify the robustness of standard estimates, and this approach will provide unbiased estimates in settings with more misclassification. PMID:24352593

  12. Health impact assessment of air pollution using a dynamic exposure profile: Implications for exposure and health impact estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dhondt, Stijn, E-mail: stijn.dhondt@vub.ac.be [Department of Medical Sociology and Health Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Laarbeeklaan 103, B-1090, Brussels (Belgium); Beckx, Carolien, E-mail: Carolien.Beckx@vito.be [Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Degraeuwe, Bart, E-mail: Bart.Degraeuwe@vito.be [Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Lefebvre, Wouter, E-mail: Wouter.Lefebvre@vito.be [Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Kochan, Bruno, E-mail: Bruno.Kochan@uhasselt.be [Transportation Research Institute, Hasselt University, Wetenschapspark 5 bus 6, 3590 Diepenbeek (Belgium); Bellemans, Tom, E-mail: Tom.Bellemans@uhasselt.be [Transportation Research Institute, Hasselt University, Wetenschapspark 5 bus 6, 3590 Diepenbeek (Belgium); Int Panis, Luc, E-mail: Luc.intpanis@vito.be [Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Transportation Research Institute, Hasselt University, Wetenschapspark 5 bus 6, 3590 Diepenbeek (Belgium); Macharis, Cathy, E-mail: cjmachar@vub.ac.be [Department MOSI-Transport and Logistics, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, B-1050, Brussels (Belgium); Putman, Koen, E-mail: kputman@vub.ac.be [Department of Medical Sociology and Health Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Laarbeeklaan 103, B-1090, Brussels (Belgium); Interuniversity Centre for Health Economics Research (I-CHER), Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels (Belgium)

    2012-09-15

    In both ambient air pollution epidemiology and health impact assessment an accurate assessment of the population exposure is crucial. Although considerable advances have been made in assessing human exposure outdoors, the assessments often do not consider the impact of individual travel behavior on such exposures. Population-based exposures to NO{sub 2} and O{sub 3} using only home addresses were compared with models that integrate all time-activity patterns-including time in commute-for Flanders and Brussels. The exposure estimates were used to estimate the air pollution impact on years of life lost due to respiratory mortality. Health impact of NO{sub 2} using an exposure that integrates time-activity information was on average 1.2% higher than when assuming that people are always at their home address. For ozone the overall estimated health impact was 0.8% lower. Local differences could be much larger, with estimates that differ up to 12% from the exposure using residential addresses only. Depending on age and gender, deviations from the population average were seen. Our results showed modest differences on a regional level. At the local level, however, time-activity patterns indicated larger differences in exposure and health impact estimates, mainly for people living in more rural areas. These results suggest that for local analyses the dynamic approach can contribute to an improved assessment of the health impact of various types of pollution and to the understanding of exposure differences between population groups. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Exposure to ambient air pollution was assessed integrating population mobility. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This dynamic exposure was integrated into a health impact assessment. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Differences between the dynamic and residential exposure were quantified. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Modest differences in health impact were found at a regional level. Black

  13. 噪声岗位人员累积噪声暴露量与听力损伤的关系%Relationship between cumulative noise exposure level and hearing loss induced by occupational noise

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李中付

    2014-01-01

    Objective To investigate the relationship between cumulative noise exposure (CNE) level and hearing loss induced by occupational noise.Methods In accordance with the data from ISO R1999,the relationship between hearing loss percentage and CNE was studied with statistical description method and three dimension curve graph.Results Hearing loss was not just a one-dimensional function CNE,but a twodimensional function of CNE (the intensity of noise exposure and the duration of noise exposure).Hearing loss curves presented flections at different intensities of noise exposure.When CNE hearing loss was approximately equal to the sum of noise exposure intensity and 7 dBA,hearing loss curves all presented flections.Hearing loss developed with the cumulated noise exposure level.When CNE was lower than the values of reflections,hearing loss worsened gradually and slowly with the intensity of cumulated noise exposure.Conversely,the opposite could be sighted in hearing loss.Conclusions The flexion pattern indicated that the hearing of those individuals could be worsened and even failed to recover permanently,once they were detected to have hearing loss induced by occupational noise exposure.%目的 研究不同噪声强度下的累积噪声暴露量(cumulative noise exposure,CNE)与听力损伤的关系.方法 根据ISO 1999提供的数据,采用统计的方法用三维曲面描述听力损伤百分率与CNE的相关性.结果 听力损伤不是一元(累积噪声暴露量)函数,而是二元(噪声暴露强度、噪声暴露年限)函数;不同噪声暴露强度下听力损伤出现拐点规律.在不同的噪声暴露强度下,当CNE近似等于噪声暴露强度+7 dBA时,听力损伤变化均出现拐点;当CNE小于拐点值时,听力损伤随累积暴露量增加变化缓慢;反之,变化急剧加大.结论 拐点规律表明,在噪声岗位工作时,一旦发现有听力损伤,可能会加剧,甚至导致听力难以恢复.

  14. Estimation of Number of Cardiovascular Death, Myocardial Infarction and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD from NO2 Exposure using Air Q Model in Ahvaz City During 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholamreza Goudarzi

    2013-05-01

    Conclusion: Air Q software calculated relative risks, attributable proportion, and baseline incidence using data processed by Excel and presents the output as the cause specific deaths. It is noteworthy that there is no model that can estimate all of the pollutants health effects simultaneously. Cumulative number of persons for acute MI attributed to NO2 exposure was 9 in 2009. Moreover, 51% of this number occurred in the days with concentrations lower than 60 µg/m3. It should be noted that 72% of this value are corresponded to the days with concentrations below 90 µg/m3. The total cumulative number of cardiovascular death attributed to exposure with NO2 during one year of monitoring was 19 persons. 60% of these cases have occurred in days with NO2 levels not exceeding 90 µg/m3. Cumulative number of hospital admission of COPD attributed to exposure with NO2 during one year of monitoring was 7 persons.87 % of these cases have occurred in days with NO2 levels not exceeding 110 µg/m3.

  15. Estimated Risk of Developing Selected DSM-IV Disorders Among 5-Year-Old Children with Prenatal Cocaine Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Connie E.; Xue, Lihua; Manjunath, Sudha; Culbertson, Jan C.; Accornero, Veronica H.; Anthony, James C.; Bandstra, Emmalee S.

    2016-01-01

    This study estimated childhood risk of developing selected DSM-IV Disorders, including Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD), and Separation Anxiety Disorder (SAD), in children with prenatal cocaine exposure (PCE). Children were enrolled prospectively at birth (n=476) with prenatal drug exposures documented by maternal interview, urine and meconium assays. Study participants included 400 African-American children from the birth cohort, 208 cocaine-exposed (CE) and 192 non-cocaine-exposed (NCE) who attended a 5-year follow-up assessment and whose caregiver completed the Computerized Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children. Under a generalized linear model (logistic link), Fisher’s exact methods were used to estimate the CE-associated relative risk (RR) of these disorders. Results indicated a modest but statistically robust elevation of ADHD risk associated with increasing levels of PCE (pEstimated cumulative incidence proportions among CE children were 2.9% for ADHD (vs 3.1% NCE); 1.4% for SAD (vs 1.6% NCE); and 4.3% for ODD (vs 6.8% NCE). Findings offer suggestive evidence of increased risk of ADHD (but not ODD or SAD) in relation to an increasing gradient of PCE during gestation.

  16. Effects of exposure imprecision on estimation of the benchmark dose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben; Keiding, Niels; Grandjean, Philippe

    2004-01-01

    approach is one of the most widely used methods for development of exposure limits. An important advantage of this approach is that it can be applied to observational data. However, in this type of data, exposure markers are seldom measured without error. It is shown that, if the exposure error is ignored......, then the benchmark approach produces results that are biased toward higher and less protective levels. It is therefore important to take exposure measurement error into account when calculating benchmark doses. Methods that allow this adjustment are described and illustrated in data from an epidemiological study...

  17. Assessment methods of cumulative exposure to pesticide residues in food%食品中农药残留的累积性暴露评估方法研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姜官鑫; 沈国清; 唐雯佳

    2011-01-01

    The potential cumulative effect of pesticide residues has been drawn more and more attention by many national governments and consumers. A lot of research work on assessments of cumulative exposure to pesticide residues which have a common mechanism such as organophosphate and carbamate has been done by US,The Netherlands,Brazil,Denmark and other countries. The main assessment methods of cumulative exposure such as Hazard Index, Cumulative Risk Index, Reference Point Index, Margin of Exposure, Toxicity Equivalence Factors were reviewed ,and the influence of uncertain factors were analyzed.%食品中农药残留潜在的累积效应已受到许多国家政府部门以及消费者越来越多的关注.美国、荷兰、巴西、丹麦等国家都已分别对具有共同作用机制的有机磷类和氨基甲酸酯类农药残留的累积性暴露评估做了大量的研究工作.本文对危险指数(HI)、累积风险指数(CRI)、参考点指数(RPI)、暴露边界(MOE)以及毒性当量因子(TEF)等国外目前研究累积性暴露评估的主要方法进行了综述,并对不确定因素的影响进行了分析.

  18. Estimating Air-Manganese Exposures in Two Ohio Towns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manganese (Mn), a nutrient required for normal metabolic function, is also a persistent air pollutant and a known neurotoxin at high concentrations. Elevated exposures can result in a number of motor and cognitive deficits. Quantifying chronic personal exposures in residential po...

  19. Estimating Air-Manganese Exposures in Two Ohio Towns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manganese (Mn), a nutrient required for normal metabolic function, is also a persistent air pollutant and a known neurotoxin at high concentrations. Elevated exposures can result in a number of motor and cognitive deficits. Quantifying chronic personal exposures in residential po...

  20. Sampling strategy for estimating human exposure pathways to consumer chemicals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni Papadopoulou

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Human exposure to consumer chemicals has become a worldwide concern. In this work, a comprehensive sampling strategy is presented, to our knowledge being the first to study all relevant exposure pathways in a single cohort using multiple methods for assessment of exposure from each exposure pathway. The selected groups of chemicals to be studied are consumer chemicals whose production and use are currently in a state of transition and are; per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFASs, traditional and “emerging” brominated flame retardants (BFRs and EBFRs, organophosphate esters (OPEs and phthalate esters (PEs. Information about human exposure to these contaminants is needed due to existing data gaps on human exposure intakes from multiple exposure pathways and relationships between internal and external exposure. Indoor environment, food and biological samples were collected from 61 participants and their households in the Oslo area (Norway on two consecutive days, during winter 2013-14. Air, dust, hand wipes, and duplicate diet (food and drink samples were collected as indicators of external exposure, and blood, urine, blood spots, hair, nails and saliva as indicators of internal exposure. A food diary, food frequency questionnaire (FFQ and indoor environment questionnaire were also implemented. Approximately 2000 samples were collected in total and participant views on their experiences of this campaign were collected via questionnaire. While 91% of our participants were positive about future participation in a similar project, some tasks were viewed as problematic. Completing the food diary and collection of duplicate food/drink portions were the tasks most frequent reported as “hard”/”very hard”. Nevertheless, a strong positive correlation between the reported total mass of food/drinks in the food record and the total weight of the food/drinks in the collection bottles was observed, being an indication of accurate performance

  1. Barrier function and natural moisturizing factor levels after cumulative exposure to a fruit-derived organic acid and a detergent: different outcomes in atopic and healthy skin and relevance for occupational contact dermatitis in the food industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelova-Fischer, Irena; Hoek, Anne-Karin; Dapic, Irena; Jakasa, Ivone; Kezic, Sanja; Fischer, Tobias W; Zillikens, Detlef

    2015-12-01

    Fruit-derived organic compounds and detergents are relevant exposure factors for occupational contact dermatitis in the food industry. Although individuals with atopic dermatitis (AD) are at risk for development of occupational contact dermatitis, there have been no controlled studies on the effects of repeated exposure to multiple irritants, relevant for the food industry, in atopic skin. The aim of the study was to investigate the outcomes of repeated exposure to a fruit-derived organic acid and a detergent in AD compared to healthy volunteers. The volunteers were exposed to 2.0% acetic acid (AcA) and/or 0.5% sodium lauryl sulfate (SLS) in controlled tandem repeated irritation test. The outcomes were assessed by measurements of erythema, transepidermal water loss (TEWL) and natural moisturizing factor (NMF) levels. In the AD volunteers, repeated AcA exposure led to barrier disruption and significant TEWL increase; no significant differences after the same exposure in the healthy controls were found. Repeated exposure to SLS and the irritant tandems enhanced the reactions and resulted in a significantly higher increase in TEWL in the AD compared to the control group. Cumulative irritant exposure reduced the NMF levels in both groups. Differences in the severity of irritant-induced barrier impairment in atopic individuals contribute to the risk for occupational contact dermatitis in result of multiple exposures to food-derived irritants and detergents. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. The Soft Cumulative Constraint

    CERN Document Server

    Petit, Thierry

    2009-01-01

    This research report presents an extension of Cumulative of Choco constraint solver, which is useful to encode over-constrained cumulative problems. This new global constraint uses sweep and task interval violation-based algorithms.

  3. Estimating systemic exposure to levonorgestrel from an oral contraceptive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basaraba, Cale N; Westhoff, Carolyn L; Pike, Malcolm C; Nandakumar, Renu; Cremers, Serge

    2017-04-01

    The gold standard for measuring oral contraceptive (OC) pharmacokinetics is the 24-h steady-state area under the curve (AUC). We conducted this study to assess whether limited sampling at steady state or measurements following use of one or two OCs could provide an adequate proxy in epidemiological studies for the progestin 24-h steady-state AUC of a particular OC. We conducted a 13-sample, 24-h pharmacokinetic study on both day 1 and day 21 of the first cycle of a monophasic OC containing 30-mcg ethinyl estradiol and 150-mcg levonorgestrel (LNG) in 17 normal-weight healthy White women and a single-dose 9-sample study of the same OC after a 1-month washout. We compared the 13-sample steady-state results with several steady-state and single-dose results calculated using parsimonious sampling schemes. The 13-sample steady-state 24-h LNG AUC was highly correlated with the steady-state 24-h trough value [r=0.95; 95% confidence interval (0.85, 0.98)] and with the steady-state 6-, 8-, 12- and 16-h values (0.92≤r≤0.95). The trough values after one or two doses were moderately correlated with the steady-state 24-h AUC value [r=0.70; 95% CI (0.27, 0.90) and 0.77; 95% CI (0.40, 0.92), respectively]. Single time-point concentrations at steady state and after administration of one or two OCs gave highly to moderately correlated estimates of steady-state LNG AUC. Using such measures could facilitate prospective pharmaco-epidemiologic studies of the OC and its side effects. A single time-point LNG concentration at steady state is an excellent proxy for complete and resource-intensive steady-state AUC measurement. The trough level after two single doses is a fair proxy for steady-state AUC. These results provide practical tools to facilitate large studies to investigate the relationship between systemic LNG exposure and side effects in a real-life setting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Sci—Thur AM: YIS - 11: Estimation of Bladder-Wall Cumulative Dose in Multi-Fraction Image-Based Gynaecological Brachytherapy Using Deformable Point Set Registration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zakariaee, R [Physics Department, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Brown, C J; Hamarneh, G [School of Computing Science, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC (Canada); Parsons, C A; Spadinger, I [British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2014-08-15

    Dosimetric parameters based on dose-volume histograms (DVH) of contoured structures are routinely used to evaluate dose delivered to target structures and organs at risk. However, the DVH provides no information on the spatial distribution of the dose in situations of repeated fractions with changes in organ shape or size. The aim of this research was to develop methods to more accurately determine geometrically localized, cumulative dose to the bladder wall in intracavitary brachytherapy for cervical cancer. The CT scans and treatment plans of 20 cervical cancer patients were used. Each patient was treated with five high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy fractions of 600cGy prescribed dose. The bladder inner and outer surfaces were delineated using MIM Maestro software (MIM Software Inc.) and were imported into MATLAB (MathWorks) as 3-dimensional point clouds constituting the “bladder wall”. A point-set registration toolbox for MATLAB, Coherent Point Drift (CPD), was used to non-rigidly transform the bladder-wall points from four of the fractions to the coordinate system of the remaining (reference) fraction, which was chosen to be the emptiest bladder for each patient. The doses were accumulated on the reference fraction and new cumulative dosimetric parameters were calculated. The LENT-SOMA toxicity scores of these patients were studied against the cumulative dose parameters. Based on this study, there was no significant correlation between the toxicity scores and the determined cumulative dose parameters.

  5. Estimation methods with ordered exposure subject to measurement error and missingness in semi-ecological design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Hyang-Mi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In epidemiological studies, it is often not possible to measure accurately exposures of participants even if their response variable can be measured without error. When there are several groups of subjects, occupational epidemiologists employ group-based strategy (GBS for exposure assessment to reduce bias due to measurement errors: individuals of a group/job within study sample are assigned commonly to the sample mean of exposure measurements from their group in evaluating the effect of exposure on the response. Therefore, exposure is estimated on an ecological level while health outcomes are ascertained for each subject. Such study design leads to negligible bias in risk estimates when group means are estimated from ‘large’ samples. However, in many cases, only a small number of observations are available to estimate the group means, and this causes bias in the observed exposure-disease association. Also, the analysis in a semi-ecological design may involve exposure data with the majority missing and the rest observed with measurement errors and complete response data collected with ascertainment. Methods In workplaces groups/jobs are naturally ordered and this could be incorporated in estimation procedure by constrained estimation methods together with the expectation and maximization (EM algorithms for regression models having measurement error and missing values. Four methods were compared by a simulation study: naive complete-case analysis, GBS, the constrained GBS (CGBS, and the constrained expectation and maximization (CEM. We illustrated the methods in the analysis of decline in lung function due to exposures to carbon black. Results Naive and GBS approaches were shown to be inadequate when the number of exposure measurements is too small to accurately estimate group means. The CEM method appears to be best among them when within each exposure group at least a ’moderate’ number of individuals have their

  6. In-residence, multiple route exposures to chlorpyrifos and diazinon estimated by indirect method models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moschandreas, D. J.; Kim, Y.; Karuchit, S.; Ari, H.; Lebowitz, M. D.; O'Rourke, M. K.; Gordon, S.; Robertson, G.

    One of the objectives of the National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS) is to estimate exposures to several pollutants in multiple media and determine their distributions for the population of Arizona. This paper presents modeling methods used to estimate exposure distributions of chlorpyrifos and diazinon in the residential microenvironment using the database generated in Arizona (NHEXAS-AZ). A four-stage probability sampling design was used for sample selection. Exposures to pesticides were estimated using the indirect method of exposure calculation by combining measured concentrations of the two pesticides in multiple media with questionnaire information such as time subjects spent indoors, dietary and non-dietary items they consumed, and areas they touched. Most distributions of in-residence exposure to chlorpyrifos and diazinon were log-normal or nearly log-normal. Exposures to chlorpyrifos and diazinon vary by pesticide and route as well as by various demographic characteristics of the subjects. Comparisons of exposure to pesticides were investigated among subgroups of demographic categories, including gender, age, minority status, education, family income, household dwelling type, year the dwelling was built, pesticide use, and carpeted areas within dwellings. Residents with large carpeted areas within their dwellings have higher exposures to both pesticides for all routes than those in less carpet-covered areas. Depending on the route, several other determinants of exposure to pesticides were identified, but a clear pattern could not be established regarding the exposure differences between several subpopulation groups.

  7. A novel approach for exposure assessment in air pollution epidemiological studies using neuro-fuzzy inference systems: Comparison of exposure estimates and exposure-health associations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanes-Vidal, Victoria; Cantuaria, Manuella Lech; Nadimi, Esmaeil S

    2017-04-01

    Many epidemiological studies have used proximity to sources as air pollution exposure assessment method. However, proximity measures are not generally good surrogates because of their complex non-linear relationship with exposures. Neuro-fuzzy inference systems (NFIS) can be used to map complex non-linear systems, but its usefulness in exposure assessment has not been extensively explored. We present a novel approach for exposure assessment using NFIS, where the inputs of the model were easily-obtainable proximity measures, and the output was residential exposure to an air pollutant. We applied it to a case-study on NH3 pollution, and compared health effects and exposures estimated from NFIS, with those obtained from emission-dispersion models, and linear and non-linear regression proximity models, using 10-fold cross validation. The agreement between emission-dispersion and NFIS exposures was high (Root-mean-square error (RMSE) =0.275, correlation coefficient (r)=0.91) and resulted in similar health effect estimates. Linear models showed poor performance (RMSE=0.527, r=0.59), while non-linear regression models resulted in heterocedasticity, non-normality and clustered data. NFIS could be a useful tool for estimating individual air pollution exposures in epidemiological studies on large populations, when emission-dispersion data are not available. The tradeoff between simplicity and accuracy needs to be considered.

  8. Risk estimation with epidemiologic data when response attenuates at high-exposure levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenland, Kyle; Seals, Ryan; Klein, Mitch; Jinot, Jennifer; Kahn, Henry D

    2011-06-01

    In occupational studies, which are commonly used for risk assessment for environmental settings, estimated exposure-response relationships often attenuate at high exposures. Relative risk (RR) models with transformed (e.g., log- or square root-transformed) exposures can provide a good fit to such data, but resulting exposure-response curves that are supralinear in the low-dose region may overestimate low-dose risks. Conversely, a model of untransformed (linear) exposure may underestimate risks attributable to exposures in the low-dose region. We examined several models, seeking simple parametric models that fit attenuating exposure-response data well. We have illustrated the use of both log-linear and linear RR models using cohort study data on breast cancer and exposure to ethylene oxide. Linear RR models fit the data better than do corresponding log-linear models. Among linear RR models, linear (untransformed), log-transformed, square root-transformed, linear-exponential, and two-piece linear exposure models all fit the data reasonably well. However, the slopes of the predicted exposure-response relations were very different in the low-exposure range, which resulted in different estimates of the exposure concentration associated with a 1% lifetime excess risk (0.0400, 0.00005, 0.0016, 0.0113, and 0.0100 ppm, respectively). The linear (in exposure) model underestimated the categorical exposure-response in the low-dose region, whereas log-transformed and square root-transformed exposure models overestimated it. Although a number of models may fit attenuating data well, models that assume linear or nearly linear exposure-response relations in the low-dose region of interest may be preferred by risk assessors, because they do not depend on the choice of a point of departure for linear low-dose extrapolation and are relatively easy to interpret.

  9. Exposure estimates using urban plume dispersion and traffic microsimulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M.J.; Mueller, C.; Bush, B.; Stretz, P.

    1997-12-01

    The goal of this research effort was to demonstrate a capability for analyzing emergency response issues resulting from accidental or mediated airborne toxic releases in an urban setting. In the first year of the program, the authors linked a system of fluid dynamics, plume dispersion, and vehicle transportation models developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to study the dispersion of a plume in an urban setting and the resulting exposures to vehicle traffic. This research is part of a larger laboratory-directed research and development project for studying the relationships between urban infrastructure elements and natural systems.

  10. Occupational exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation of Polish outdoor workers: risk estimation method and criterion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolska, Agnieszka

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents occupational skin exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) of 122 Polish outdoor workers in spring and summer. In 65% of the cases, it was significant and exceeded 10 standard erythema doses (SED) during a work shift. The results provided grounds for (a) modifying hazard assessment based on the skin exposure factor proposed by the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) and (b) developing a criterion of risk estimation. The modified method uses the UV index (UVI) instead of the geographical latitude and season factor. The skin exposure factor (Wes) of one is the criterion of risk estimation. Risk is low if the estimated value of Wes does not exceed one. If it does, suitable preventive measures are necessary and a corrected skin exposure factor (Wes *) is calculated to minimize its value to at least one. Risk estimated with that method was high in 67% of the cases.

  11. Estimating the incidence of leukemia attributable to occupational exposure in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosavi-Jarrahi, Alireza; Mohagheghi, Mohammad Ali; Kalaghchi, Bita; Mousavi-Jarrahi, Yasaman; Kolahi, Ali Asghar; Noori, Mohammad Kazem

    2009-01-01

    The aim this study was to estimate the fraction of leukemia incidence in Iran attributable to occupational exposure to benzene, ionizing radiation, and ethylene oxide. Nationwide exposure to each of these leukemogens was estimated using workforce data available at the ILO (International Labor Organization) website. The prevalence of exposure to leukemogens in each industry was estimated using exposure data from the CAREX (CARcinogen EXposure) database. The magnitude of the relative risk of leukemia for each leukemogen was from published literature. Using the Levin's population attributable risk (incidence), fractions of leukemia incidences attributed to workplace leukemogens were then estimated. The total workforce in Iran according to the 1995 census included 12,488,020 men and 677,469 women. Agriculture was the largest sector with 24.5% of the males and 0.27% of the females, and the electricals-related sector was the smallest with 1.16% of the males and 0.66% of the females. After applying the CAREX exposure estimates to each sector, the proportion exposed to leukemogens was 0.016% for male workers and 0.02% for female workers. Estimating a relative risk of 3.6 (95% CI of 3.2-4.2) for high exposure and 1.9 (95% CI 1.7-2.1) for low exposure and employing the Levin's formula, the fraction of leukemia attributed to leukemogens in the workplaces among females was 3.6% (95% CI of 3.1-4.5) and among males was 7.6% (95% CI of 6.4-9.2). These fractions corresponded to estimated incidences of 0.60 (95% CI of 0.50-0.70) and 0.22 (95% CI of 0.16-0.23) cases of leukemia per 100,000 populations for males and females, respectively. The incidence of leukemia due to occupational exposure is very low in Iran, although males are at greater risk than females.

  12. ESTIMATION OF UV-B EXPOSURE IN AMPHIBIAN AQUATIC ENVIRONMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estimation of ultraviolet radiation B (UV-B; 280 to 320 nm wavelenghts) dose is essential for determining whether UV-B contributes to amphibian population declines and malformations. UV-B dose in wetlands is effected by location, time of day and year, atmospheric levels of ozone,...

  13. Predictive framework for estimating exposure of birds to pharmaceuticals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, Thomas; Arnold, Kathryn E.; Lane, Julie M.; Bergström, Ed; Thomas-Oates, Jane; Rattner, Barnett A.; Boxall, Allistair B.A.

    2017-01-01

    We present and evaluate a framework for estimating concentrations of pharmaceuticals over time in wildlife feeding at wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). The framework is composed of a series of predictive steps involving the estimation of pharmaceutical concentration in wastewater, accumulation into wildlife food items, and uptake by wildlife with subsequent distribution into, and elimination from, tissues. Because many pharmacokinetic parameters for wildlife are unavailable for the majority of drugs in use, a read-across approach was employed using either rodent or human data on absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion. Comparison of the different steps in the framework against experimental data for the scenario where birds are feeding on a WWTP contaminated with fluoxetine showed that estimated concentrations in wastewater treatment works were lower than measured concentrations; concentrations in food could be reasonably estimated if experimental bioaccumulation data are available; and read-across from rodent data worked better than human to bird read-across. The framework provides adequate predictions of plasma concentrations and of elimination behavior in birds but yields poor predictions of distribution in tissues. The approach holds promise, but it is important that we improve our understanding of the physiological similarities and differences between wild birds and domesticated laboratory mammals used in pharmaceutical efficacy/safety trials, so that the wealth of data available can be applied more effectively in ecological risk assessments.

  14. Risk Estimation with Epidemiologic Data When Response Attenuates at High-Exposure Levels

    OpenAIRE

    Steenland, Kyle; Seals, Ryan; Klein, Mitch; Jinot, Jennifer; Kahn, Henry D.

    2011-01-01

    Background In occupational studies, which are commonly used for risk assessment for environmental settings, estimated exposure–response relationships often attenuate at high exposures. Relative risk (RR) models with transformed (e.g., log- or square root–transformed) exposures can provide a good fit to such data, but resulting exposure–response curves that are supralinear in the low-dose region may overestimate low-dose risks. Conversely, a model of untransformed (linear) exposure may underes...

  15. Rapid Methods to Estimate Potential Exposure to Semivolatile Organic Compounds in the Indoor Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Little, John C.; Weschler, Charles J.; Nazaroff, William W;

    2012-01-01

    to evaluate exposures that occur indoors. For semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs), exposure is strongly influenced by the types of products in which these SVOCs occur. We propose methods for obtaining screening-level estimates for two primary SVOC source classes: additives in products used indoors...

  16. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER meas...

  17. Effect of geocoding errors on traffic-related air pollutant exposure and concentration estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure to traffic-related air pollutants is highest very near roads, and thus exposure estimates are sensitive to positional errors. This study evaluates positional and PM2.5 concentration errors that result from the use of automated geocoding methods and from linearized approx...

  18. Air Pollution and Lung Function in Dutch Children : A Comparison of Exposure Estimates and Associations Based on Land Use Regression and Dispersion Exposure Modeling Approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Meng; Gehring, Ulrike; Hoek, Gerard; Keuken, Menno; Jonkers, Sander; Beelen, Rob; Eeftens, Marloes; Postma, Dirkje S.; Brunekreef, Bert

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: There is limited knowledge about the extent to which estimates of air pollution effects on health are affected by the choice for a specific exposure model. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the correlation between long-term air pollution exposure estimates using two commonly used exposure

  19. Development of neonate phantom for estimating medical exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akahane, K.; Kai, M.; Kusama, T. [Oita Univ. of Nursing and Health Sciences, Oita (Japan); Mitarai, T.; Ono, K.; Hada, M.; Ninomiya, H.; Kato, Y. [Oita Prefectural Hospital, Oita (Japan)

    2000-05-01

    The distribution and volume ratio of radiation sensitive organs such as red bone marrow are different between neonates and adults. In addition, the body sizes of neonates in NICU are smaller than normal neonates. Consequently, it is important to estimate a neonatal dose for X-ray examinations in NICU. However, there are few reports on quantitative estimates of measured or mathematically calculated doses for neonatal X-ray examinations. In order to estimate their dose, we made a physical neonatal phantom and estimated its dose using both measurement and calculation methods. In determining the phantom geometry, the body sizes were measured for neonates of NICU in Oita prefectural hospital. As body parameters, weights, heights and trunk sizes were obtained. The weight of phantom was determined to be 2000 g based on these data. The height of the phantom is 43.5 cm, and the trunk width is determined to be 9.5 cm. The whole shape was expressed with rectangular solids without bone region to avoid the difficulties on phantom construction and calculations. The height and other body size parameters were calculated as a function of body weight, which were determined as regression lines on these data. The weights of lungs were calculated using NIRS-M-115, and the positions were determined according to anatomical geometry. The components of the phantom were soft tissue and lung, and tough water and tough lung phantoms were selected as materials of the phantom. For the purpose of the dose measurement, the phantom was located in the incubator of NICU, and exposed under 4 kinds of the conditions of ordinary X-ray examination, which were for chest, combined abdomen-chest, abdomen and head radiographs using a portable X-ray machine. A film-badge was put on the center of exposed area for each examination, and measured entrance surface dose of the phantom. The glass dosimeters were also used. The measured doses of chest, combined abdomen-chest and abdomen were 0.1-0.12 mSv. The Monte

  20. Estimating the incidence of lung cancer attributable to occupational exposure in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mousavi-Jarrahi Yasaman

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective The aim of this study was to estimate the fraction of lung cancer incidence in Iran attributed to occupational exposures to the well-established lung cancer carcinogens, including silica, cadmium, nickel, arsenic, chromium, diesel fumes, beryllium, and asbestos. Methods Nationwide exposure to each of the mentioned carcinogens was estimated using workforce data from the Iranian population census of 1995, available from the International Labor Organization (ILO website. The prevalence of exposure to carcinogens in each industry was estimated using exposure data from the CAREX (CARcinogen EXposure database, an international occupational carcinogen information system kept and maintained by the European Union. The magnitude of the relative risk of lung cancer for each carcinogen was estimated from local and international literature. Using the Levin modified population attributable risk (incidence fraction, lung cancer incidence (as estimated by the Tehran Population-Based Cancer Registry attributable to workplace exposure to carcinogens was estimated. Results The total workforce in Iran according to the 1995 census identified 12,488,020 men and 677,469 women. Agriculture is the largest sector with 25% of the male and 0.27% of female workforce. After applying the CAREX exposure estimate to each sector, the proportion exposed to lung carcinogens was 0.08% for male workers and 0.02% for female workers. Estimating a relative risk of 1.9 (95% CI of 1.7–2.1 for high exposure and 1.3 (95% CI 1.2–1.4 for low exposure, and employing the Levin modified formula, the fraction of lung cancer attributed to carcinogens in the workplace was 1.5% (95% CI of 1.2–1.9 for females and 12% (95% CI of 10–15 for males. These fractions correspond to an estimated incidence of 1.3 and 0.08 cases of lung cancer per 100,000 population for males and females, respectively. Conclusion The incidence of lung cancer due to occupational exposure is low in

  1. Electromagnetic exposure compliance estimation using narrowband directional measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stratakis, D; Miaoudakis, A; Xenos, T; Zacharopoulos, V

    2008-01-01

    The increased number of everyday applications that rely on wireless communication has drawn an attention to several concerns on the adverse health effects that prolonged or even short time exposure might have on humans. International organisations and countries have adopted guides and legislation for the public safety. They include reference levels (RLs) regarding field strength electromagnetic quantities. To check for RLs compliance in an environment with multiple transmitters of various types, analytical simulation models may be implemented provided that all the necessary information are available. Since this is not generally the case in the most practical situations, on-site measurements have to be performed. The necessary equipment for measurements of this type usually includes broadband field metres suitable to measure the field strength over the whole bandwidth of the field sensor used. These types of measurements have several drawbacks; to begin with, given that RLs are frequency depended, compliance evaluation can be misleading since no information is available regarding the measured spectrum distribution. Furthermore, in a multi-transmitter environment there is no way of distinguishing the contribution of a specific source to the overall field measured. Of course, this problem can be resolved using narrowband directional receiver antennas, yet there is always the need for a priori knowledge of the polarisation of the incident electromagnetic wave. In this work, the use of measurement schemes of this type is addressed. A method independent to the polarisation of the incident wave is proposed and a way to evaluate a single source contribution to the total field in a multi-transmitter environment and the polarisation of the measured incident wave is presented.

  2. Improved exposure estimation in soil screening and clean-up criteria for volatile organic chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeVaull, George E

    2017-02-18

    Soil clean-up criteria define acceptable concentrations of organic chemical constituents for exposed humans. These criteria sum the estimated soil exposure over multiple pathways. Assumptions for ingestion, dermal contact, and dust exposure generally presume a chemical persists in surface soils at a constant concentration level for the entire exposure duration. For volatile chemicals this is an unrealistic assumption. A calculation method is presented for surficial soil criteria which include volatile depletion of chemical for these uptake pathways. The depletion estimates compare favorably with measured concentration profiles and with field measurements of soil concentration. Corresponding volatilization estimates compare favorably with measured data for a wide range of volatile and semi-volatile chemicals, including instances with and without the presence of a mixed-chemical residual phase. Selected examples show application of the revised factors in estimating screening levels for benzene in surficial soils. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  3. Patient cumulative radiation exposure in interventional cardiology; Exposition cumulee aux rayonnements ionisants des patients en cardiologie interventionnelle: caracteristiques cliniques et dosimetriques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernier, M.O.; Jacob, S.; Laurier, D. [Institut de radioprotection et de surete nucleaire (IRSN), DRPH, SRBE, LEPID, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Maccia, C. [Centre d' assurance de qualite des applications technologiques dans le domaine de la sante - CAATS, Bourg-la-Reine (France); Bar, O.; Blanchard, D. [Clinique Saint-Gatien, Tours (France); Catelinois, O. [Institut de veille sanitaire, St Maurice (France)

    2012-01-15

    Interventional cardiology procedures can involve potentially high doses of radiation to the patients. Stochastic effects of ionising radiation - radiation-induced cancers in the long term - may occur. We analysed clinical characteristics and dosimetric data in a population of patients undergoing interventional cardiology. In all, 1 591 patients who had undergone coronarography and/or angioplasty in the course of a year at the Saint-Gatien Clinic in Tours (France) were included. Information on patients' individual clinical characteristics and Dose-Area Product values were collected. Organ doses to the lung, oesophagus, bone marrow and breast were mathematically evaluated. The median age of patients was 70 years. Their median cumulative dose-area product value was 48.4 Gy.cm{sup 2} for the whole year and the median effective dose was 9.7 mSv. The median organ doses were 41 mGy for the lung, 31 mGy for the oesophagus, 10 mGy for the bone marrow and 4 mGy for the breast. Levels of doses close to the heart appear to be rather high in the case of repeated interventional cardiology procedures. Clinical characteristics should be taken into account when planning epidemiological studies on potential radiation-induced cancers. (authors)

  4. Cumulative risk assessment of the intake of organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides in the Danish diet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, A. F.; Petersen, Annette; Granby, Kit

    2003-01-01

    The aim of the study is to evaluate the potential cumulative effects of organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides that act through a common mechanism of toxicity, and to assess the long- and short-term risks for the Danish population. The intake estimates are based on dietary intake data collected...... in the Danish nation-wide food consumption survey in 1995. The pesticide data are based on the Danish pesticide residue-monitoring programme from 1996-2001. The amount of 35 organophosphorus pesticides and carbamates were included in the cumulative risk assessment. Processing factors, such as reduction...... of pesticide levels by rinsing and peeling, were applied in the exposure assessment. The "Toxicity Equivalence Factor" (TEF) approach was used to normalise the toxicity of the different organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides. Cumulative chronic exposure of organophosphorus and carbamates pesticides via...

  5. Modeling Human Exposure to Phthalate Esters: A Comparison of Indirect and Biomonitoring Estimation Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Kathryn E.; David, Raymond M.; Guinn, Richard; Kramarz, Kurt W.; Lampi, Mark A.; Staples, Charles A.

    2011-01-01

    Humans are potentially exposed to phthalate esters (PEs) through ingestion, inhalation, and dermal contact. Studies quantifying exposure to PEs include “biomarker studies” and “indirect studies.” Biomarker studies use measurements of PE metabolites in urine to back-calculate exposure to the parent diester, while indirect studies use the concentration of the PE in each medium of exposure and the rate of intake of that medium to quantify intake of the PE. In this review, exposure estimates from biomarker and indirect studies are compiled and compared for seven PEs to determine if there are regional differences and if there is a preferred approach. The indirect and biomarker methods generally agree with each other within an order of magnitude and discrepancies are explained by difficulties in accounting for use of consumer products, uncertainty concerning absorption, regional differences, and temporal changes. No single method is preferred for estimating intake of all PEs; it is suggested that biomarker estimates be used for low molecular weight PEs for which it is difficult to quantify all sources of exposure and either indirect or biomarker methods be used for higher molecular weight PEs. The indirect methods are useful in identifying sources of exposure while the biomarker methods quantify exposure. PMID:23087593

  6. Towards estimating the burden of disease attributable to second-hand smoke exposure in Polish children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorota Jarosińska

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To estimate the burden of disease attributable to second-hand smoke (SHS exposure in Polish children in terms of the number of deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs due to lower respiratory infections (LRI, otitis media (OM, asthma, low birth weight (LBW and sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS. Materials and Methods: Estimates of SHS exposure in children and in pregnant women as well as information concerning maternal smoking were derived from a national survey, the Global Youth Tobacco Survey, and the Global Adult Tobacco Survey in Poland. Mortality data (LRI, OM, asthma, and SIDS, the number of cases (LBW, and population data were obtained from national statistics (year 2010, and DALYs came from the WHO (year 2004. The burden of disease due to SHS was calculated by multiplying the total burden of a specific health outcome (deaths or DALYs by a population attributable fraction. Results: Using two estimates of SHS exposure in children: 48% and 60%, at least 12 and 14 deaths from LRI in children aged up to 2 years were attributed to SHS, for the two exposure scenarios, respectively. The highest burden of DALYs was for asthma in children aged up to 15 years: 2412, and 2970 DALYs, for the two exposure scenarios, respectively. For LRI, 419 and 500 DALYs, and for OM, 61 and 77 DALYs were attributed to SHS, for the two exposure scenarios, respectively. Between 13% and 27% of SIDS cases and between 3% and 16% of the cases of LBW at term were attributed to SHS exposure. Conclusions: This study provides a conservative estimate of the public health impact of SHS exposure on Polish children. Lack of comprehensive, up to date health data concerning children, as well as lack of measures that would best reflect actual SHS exposure are major limitations of the study, likely to underestimate the burden of disease.

  7. A novel approach to estimating potential maximum heavy metal exposure to ship recycling yard workers in Alang, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshpande, Paritosh C; Tilwankar, Atit K; Asolekar, Shyam R

    2012-11-01

    The 180 ship recycling yards located on Alang-Sosiya beach in the State of Gujarat on the west coast of India is the world's largest cluster engaged in dismantling. Yearly 350 ships have been dismantled (avg. 10,000 ton steel/ship) with the involvement of about 60,000 workers. Cutting and scrapping of plates or scraping of painted metal surfaces happens to be the commonly performed operation during ship breaking. The pollutants released from a typical plate-cutting operation can potentially either affect workers directly by contaminating the breathing zone (air pollution) or can potentially add pollution load into the intertidal zone and contaminate sediments when pollutants get emitted in the secondary working zone and gets subjected to tidal forces. There was a two-pronged purpose behind the mathematical modeling exercise performed in this study. First, to estimate the zone of influence up to which the effect of plume would extend. Second, to estimate the cumulative maximum concentration of heavy metals that can potentially occur in ambient atmosphere of a given yard. The cumulative maximum heavy metal concentration was predicted by the model to be between 113 μg/Nm(3) and 428 μg/Nm(3) (at 4m/s and 1m/s near-ground wind speeds, respectively). For example, centerline concentrations of lead (Pb) in the yard could be placed between 8 and 30 μg/Nm(3). These estimates are much higher than the Indian National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for Pb (0.5 μg/Nm(3)). This research has already become the critical science and technology inputs for formulation of policies for eco-friendly dismantling of ships, formulation of ideal procedure and corresponding health, safety, and environment provisions. The insights obtained from this research are also being used in developing appropriate technologies for minimizing exposure to workers and minimizing possibilities of causing heavy metal pollution in the intertidal zone of ship recycling yards in India.

  8. Estimating maternal and prenatal exposure to glyphosate in the community setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQueen, Heather; Callan, Anna C; Hinwood, Andrea L

    2012-11-01

    Glyphosate is a herbicide in common use, in both agricultural and residential settings. Controlled residue studies show that glyphosate persists in food crops, allowing for the potential of a large number of people to be exposed. Glyphosate is generally considered safe however there are a number of studies suggesting formulations or additives that may have adverse health effects. To assess the degree of exposure of pregnant women, this study measured glyphosate in composite food samples and estimated exposure based on food frequency questionnaire. 43 pregnant women were recruited and completed a self administered questionnaire with a food frequency component and provided a composite food sample. Twenty food samples were analysed with very low glyphosate concentrations (mean 0.08 mg/kg, range 0.002-0.5 mg/kg) with residues detected in more than 75% of the samples. Maternal dietary exposure was very low (0.001 mg/kg bw/day) and was considerably lower than the predicted National Estimated Daily Intake of glyphosate (0.02 mg/kg bw/day). The estimated exposure based on measured glyphosate in composite food samples corresponded to 0.4% of the acceptable daily intake for glyphosate, and the predicted concentration from dietary information was 4% which is comparable to the National Estimated Daily Intake of 5.5% of the Acceptable Daily Intake of glyphosate. Prenatal exposures were estimated to be significantly lower. While residues of glyphosate are present in food, this study demonstrates that exposure concentrations are low and confirms the current models used to estimate glyphosate exposure.

  9. Applying quality criteria to exposure in asbestos epidemiology increases the estimated risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdorf, Alex; Heederik, Dick

    2011-07-01

    Mesothelioma deaths due to environmental exposure to asbestos in The Netherlands led to parliamentary concern that exposure guidelines were not strict enough. The Health Council of the Netherlands was asked for advice. Its report has recently been published. The question of quality of the exposure estimates was studied more systematically than in previous asbestos meta-analyses. Five criteria of quality of exposure information were applied, and cohort studies that failed to meet these were excluded. For lung cancer, this decreased the number of cohorts included from 19 to 3 and increased the risk estimate 3- to 6-fold, with the requirements for good historical data on exposure and job history having the largest effects. It also suggested that the apparent differences in lung cancer potency between amphiboles and chrysotile may be produced by lower quality studies. A similar pattern was seen for mesothelioma. As a result, the Health Council has proposed that the occupational exposure limit be reduced from 10 000 fibres m(-3) (all types) to 250 f m(-3) (amphiboles), 1300 f m(-3) (mixed fibres), and 2000 f m(-3) (chrysotile). The process illustrates the importance of evaluating quality of exposure in epidemiology since poor quality of exposure data will lead to underestimated risk.

  10. Recommendations to improve wildlife exposure estimation for development of soil screening and cleanup values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Bradley E; Schlekat, Chris; Spurgeon, David J; Menzie, Charlie; Rauscher, Jon; Adams, Bill

    2014-07-01

    An integral component in the development of media-specific values for the ecological risk assessment of chemicals is the derivation of safe levels of exposure for wildlife. Although the derivation and subsequent application of these values can be used for screening purposes, there is a need to identify the threshold for effects when making remedial decisions during site-specific assessments. Methods for evaluation of wildlife exposure are included in the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) ecological soil screening levels (Eco-SSLs), registration, evaluation, authorization, and restriction of chemicals (REACH), and other risk-based soil assessment approaches. The goal of these approaches is to ensure that soil-associated contaminants do not pose a risk to wildlife that directly ingest soil, or to species that may be exposed to contaminants that persist in the food chain. These approaches incorporate broad assumptions in the exposure and effects assessments and in the risk characterization process. Consequently, thresholds for concluding risk are frequently very low with conclusions of risk possible when soil metal concentrations fall in the range of natural background. A workshop held in September, 2012 evaluated existing methods and explored recent science about factors to consider when establishing appropriate remedial goals for concentrations of metals in soils. A Foodweb Exposure Workgroup was organized to evaluate methods for quantifying exposure of wildlife to soil-associated metals through soil and food consumption and to provide recommendations for the development of ecological soil cleanup values (Eco-SCVs) that are both practical and scientifically defensible. The specific goals of this article are to review the current practices for quantifying exposure of wildlife to soil-associated contaminants via bioaccumulation and trophic transfer, to identify potential opportunities for refining and improving these exposure estimates, and finally, to make

  11. Binational Arsenic Exposure Survey: Methodology and Estimated Arsenic Intake from Drinking Water and Urinary Arsenic Concentrations

    OpenAIRE

    Harris, Robin B.; Burgess, Jefferey L; Maria Mercedes Meza-Montenegro; Luis Enrique Gutiérrez-Millán; Mary Kay O’Rourke; Jason Roberge

    2012-01-01

    The Binational Arsenic Exposure Survey (BAsES) was designed to evaluate probable arsenic exposures in selected areas of southern Arizona and northern Mexico, two regions with known elevated levels of arsenic in groundwater reserves. This paper describes the methodology of BAsES and the relationship between estimated arsenic intake from beverages and arsenic output in urine. Households from eight communities were selected for their varying groundwater arsenic concentrations in Arizona, USA and...

  12. Characterization of air manganese exposure estimates for residents in two Ohio towns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colledge, Michelle A.; Julian, Jaime R.; Gocheva, Vihra V.; Beseler, Cheryl L.; Roels, Harry A.; Lobdell, Danelle T.; Bowler, Rosemarie M.

    2016-01-01

    This study was conducted to derive receptor-specific outdoor exposure concentrations of total suspended particulate (TSP) and respirable (dae ≤ 10 μm) air manganese (air-Mn) for East Liverpool and Marietta (Ohio) in the absence of facility emissions data, but where long-term air measurements were available. Our “site-surface area emissions method” used U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) AERMOD (AMS/EPA Regulatory Model) dispersion model and air measurement data to estimate concentrations for residential receptor sites in the two communities. Modeled concentrations were used to create ratios between receptor points and calibrated using measured data from local air monitoring stations. Estimated outdoor air-Mn concentrations were derived for individual study subjects in both towns. The mean estimated long-term air-Mn exposure levels for total suspended particulate were 0.35 μg/m3 (geometric mean [GM]) and 0.88 μg/m3 (arithmetic mean [AM]) in East Liverpool (range: 0.014–6.32 μg/m3) and 0.17 μg/m3 (GM) and 0.21 μg/m3 (AM) in Marietta (range: 0.03–1.61 μg/m3). Modeled results compared well with averaged ambient air measurements from local air monitoring stations. Exposure to respirable Mn particulate matter (PM10; PM <10 μm) was higher in Marietta residents. Implications Few available studies evaluate long-term health outcomes from inhalational manganese (Mn) exposure in residential populations, due in part to challenges in measuring individual exposures. Local long-term air measurements provide the means to calibrate models used in estimating long-term exposures. Furthermore, this combination of modeling and ambient air sampling can be used to derive receptor-specific exposure estimates even in the absence of source emissions data for use in human health outcome studies. PMID:26211636

  13. Factors affecting the estimated probabilistic acute dietary exposure to captan from apple consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zentai, A; Sali, J; Szabó, I J; Szeitzné-Szabó, M; Ambrus, A; Vásárhelyi, A

    2013-01-01

    The effect of the number of pesticide residue values below the LOQ/LOD of analytical methods, the variability of residues in individual fruits, mass of fruit units and the number of bootstrap iterations was studied on the probabilistically estimated acute exposure of consumers. The 4720 daily apple consumption data and the results of 1239 apple sample analyses for captan residues, performed within the Hungarian monitoring programme between 2005 and 2011, were used in this study as model matrix. Up to about 95th percentile exposure (µg/(kg bw·day)), simply multiplying each residue in composite samples with each consumption value gave similar estimates to those obtained with the complex procedure taking also into account the mass of and residues in individual fruits. However, the exposure above the 95th percentile calculated with the complex procedure gradually increased with increasing percentile level compared to the simple procedure. Including the high number of non-detects reduced the estimated exposure, which was the highest when only the residues measured in treated fruits were taken into account. The number of bootstrap iterations between 100 and 10,000 did not significantly affect the calculated exposure. The 99.99th percentile exposure amounted to 17.9% of the acute reference dose of 300 µg/(kg bw·day) for women of childbearing age.

  14. Tools and Techniques - Statistical. Estimating cumulative incidences in the presence of right-censoring and competing risks : an introduction with illustrations from the COACH study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmus, Douwe; Demissei, Biniyam G; Hillege, Hans L

    2016-01-01

    In cardiovascular studies, it is common to assess the association between the risk of experiencing an event, such as death or hospitalisation, and one or more exposure variables, such as different treatment regimens when the study under consideration is an intervention study. A frequently applied

  15. Application of Benchmark Dose (BMD) in Estimating Biological Exposure Limit (BEL) to Cadmium

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Objective To estimate the biological exposure limit (BEL) using benchmark dose (BMD) based on two sets of data from occupational epidemiology. Methods Cadmium-exposed workers were selected from a cadmium smelting factory and a zinc product factory. Doctors, nurses or shop assistants living in the same area served as a control group. Urinary cadmium (UCd) was used as an exposure biomarker and urinary β2-microgloburin (B2M), N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase (NAG) and albumin (ALB) as effect biomarkers. All urine parameters were adjusted by urinary creatinine. Software of BMDS (Version 1.3.2, EPA.U.S.A) was used to calculate BMD. Results The cut-off point (abnormal values) was determined based on the upper limit of 95% of effect biomarkers in control group. There was a significant dose response relationship between the effect biomarkers (urinary B2M, NAG, and ALB) and exposure biomarker (UCd). BEL value was 5 μg/g creatinine for UB2M as an effect biomarker, consistent with the recommendation of WHO. BEL could be estimated by using the method of BMD. BEL value was 3 μg/g creatinine for UNAG as an effect biomarker. The more sensitive the used biomarker is, the more occupational population will be protected. Conclusion BMD can be used in estimating the biological exposure limit (BEL). UNAG is a sensitive biomarker for estimating BEL after cadmium exposure.

  16. Calibrating a population-based job-exposure matrix using inspection measurements to estimate historical occupational exposure to lead for a population-based cohort in Shanghai, China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koh, Dong Hee; Bhatti, Parveen; Coble, Joseph B.; Stewart, Patricia A.; Lu, Wei; Shu, Xiao Ou; Ji, Bu Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Locke, Sarah J.; Portengen, Lutzen; Yang, Gong; Chow, Wong Ho; Gao, Yu Tang; Rothman, Nathaniel; Vermeulen, Roel; Friesen, Melissa C.

    2014-01-01

    The epidemiologic evidence for the carcinogenicity of lead is inconsistent and requires improved exposure assessment to estimate risk. We evaluated historical occupational lead exposure for a population-based cohort of women (n=74,942) by calibrating a job-exposure matrix (JEM) with lead fume

  17. An artificial neural network for estimating scatter exposures in portable chest radiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, J Y; Floyd, C E; Baker, J A; Ravin, C E

    1993-01-01

    An adaptive linear element (Adaline) was developed to estimate the two-dimensional scatter exposure distribution in digital portable chest radiographs (DPCXR). DPCXRs and quantitative scatter exposure measurements at 64 locations throughout the chest were acquired for ten radiographically normal patients. The Adaline is an artificial neural network which has only a single node and linear thresholding. The Adaline was trained using DPCXR-scatter measurement pairs from five patients. The spatially invariant network would take a portion of the image as its input and estimate the scatter content as output. The trained network was applied to the other five images, and errors were evaluated between estimated and measured scatter values. Performance was compared against a convolution scatter estimation algorithm. The network was evaluated as a function of network size, initial values, and duration of training. Network performance was evaluated qualitatively by the correlation of network weights to physical models, and quantitatively by training and evaluation errors. Using DPCXRs as input, the network learned to describe known scatter exposures accurately (7% error) and estimate scatter in new images (< 8% error) slightly better than convolution methods. Regardless of size and initial shape, all networks adapted into radial exponentials with magnitude of 0.75, perhaps implying an ideal point spread function and average scatter fraction, respectively. To implement scatter compensation, the two-dimensional scatter distribution estimated by the neural network is subtracted from the original DPCXR.

  18. Cumulative Paired φ-Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingo Klein

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A new kind of entropy will be introduced which generalizes both the differential entropy and the cumulative (residual entropy. The generalization is twofold. First, we simultaneously define the entropy for cumulative distribution functions (cdfs and survivor functions (sfs, instead of defining it separately for densities, cdfs, or sfs. Secondly, we consider a general “entropy generating function” φ, the same way Burbea et al. (IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 1982, 28, 489–495 and Liese et al. (Convex Statistical Distances; Teubner-Verlag, 1987 did in the context of φ-divergences. Combining the ideas of φ-entropy and cumulative entropy leads to the new “cumulative paired φ-entropy” ( C P E φ . This new entropy has already been discussed in at least four scientific disciplines, be it with certain modifications or simplifications. In the fuzzy set theory, for example, cumulative paired φ-entropies were defined for membership functions, whereas in uncertainty and reliability theories some variations of C P E φ were recently considered as measures of information. With a single exception, the discussions in the scientific disciplines appear to be held independently of each other. We consider C P E φ for continuous cdfs and show that C P E φ is rather a measure of dispersion than a measure of information. In the first place, this will be demonstrated by deriving an upper bound which is determined by the standard deviation and by solving the maximum entropy problem under the restriction of a fixed variance. Next, this paper specifically shows that C P E φ satisfies the axioms of a dispersion measure. The corresponding dispersion functional can easily be estimated by an L-estimator, containing all its known asymptotic properties. C P E φ is the basis for several related concepts like mutual φ-information, φ-correlation, and φ-regression, which generalize Gini correlation and Gini regression. In addition, linear rank tests for scale that

  19. Wastewater-based epidemiology as a new tool for estimating population exposure to phthalate plasticizers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Marino, Iria; Rodil, Rosario; Barrio, Ivan; Cela, Rafael; Quintana, Jose Benito

    2017-02-27

    This study proposes the monitoring of phthalate metabolites in wastewater as a non-intrusive and economic alternative to urine analysis for estimating human exposure to phthalates. To this end, a solid-phase extraction-liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method was developed, allowing for the determination of eight phthalate metabolites in wastewater (limits of quantification between 0.5 and 32 ng L-1). The analysis of samples from the NW region of Spain showed that these substances occur in raw wastewater up to ca.1.6 µg L-1 and in treated wastewater up to ca. 1 µg L-1. Concentrations in raw wastewater were converted into levels of exposure to six phthalate diesters. For three of them, these levels were always below the daily exposure thresholds recommended by the US-Environmental Protection Agency and the European Food Safety Authority. For the other three, however, estimates of exposure surpassed such threshold (especially the toddler threshold) in some cases, highlighting the significance of the exposure to phthalates in children. Finally, concentrations in wastewater were also used to estimate metabolite concentrations in urine, providing a reasonable concordance between our results and the data obtained in two previous biomonitoring studies.

  20. An Updated Algorithm for Estimation of Pesticide Exposure Intensity in the Agricultural Health Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron Blair

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available An algorithm developed to estimate pesticide exposure intensity for use in epidemiologic analyses was revised based on data from two exposure monitoring studies. In the first study, we estimated relative exposure intensity based on the results of measurements taken during the application of the herbicide 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D (n = 88 and the insecticide chlorpyrifos (n = 17. Modifications to the algorithm weighting factors were based on geometric means (GM of post-application urine concentrations for applicators grouped by application method and use of chemically-resistant (CR gloves. Measurement data from a second study were also used to evaluate relative exposure levels associated with airblast as compared to hand spray application methods. Algorithm modifications included an increase in the exposure reduction factor for use of CR gloves from 40% to 60%, an increase in the application method weight for boom spray relative to in-furrow and for air blast relative to hand spray, and a decrease in the weight for mixing relative to the new weights assigned for application methods. The weighting factors for the revised algorithm now incorporate exposure measurements taken on Agricultural Health Study (AHS participants for the application methods and personal protective equipment (PPE commonly reported by study participants.

  1. An integrated exposure assessment of phthalates for the general population in China based on both exposure scenario and biomonitoring estimation approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Yan; Liu, Jianguo; Liu, Yang; Wang, Jie; Hao, Xuewen

    2016-02-01

    The representativeness of available studies on integrated exposure assessment of phthalates for the general population in China is lacking. Based on an exhaustive review of the extensive monitoring data available for China, this study presents a large-scale estimation of exposure levels to three typical phthalates, di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP) and diisobutyl phthalate (DiBP), by applying both exposure scenario and biomonitoring estimation approaches. The respective median exposure levels from the exposure scenario and biomonitoring estimation approaches were 3.80, 3.02 and 1.00 μg/kg bw/day and 3.38, 3.21 and 3.32 μg/kg bw/day for DEHP, DBP and DiBP, which are acceptable levels of exposure with respect to current international guidelines. Evaluation results from the two approaches showed both similarities and differences among the different phthalates, making the exposure assessment comparable and more comprehensive. In terms of sources of exposure, food intake was the largest contributor, while indoor air exposure had greater contribution to the estimated daily intakes (EDIs) of DiBP than that of the other phthalates. Moreover, more attention should be paid to the higher exposure levels of phthalates in several intensively industrialized and urbanized areas, and the causes of the different exposure levels in the different regions need to be further explored.

  2. A Chain Modeling Approach To Estimate the Impact of Soil Cadmium Pollution on Human Dietary Exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franz, E.; Romkens, P.F.A.M.; Raamsdonk, van L.W.D.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.

    2008-01-01

    Cadmium in soil poses a risk for human health, due to its accumulation in food and feed crops. The extent of accumulation depends strongly on soil type and the degree of pollution. The objective of the present study was to develop a predictive model to estimate human dietary cadmium exposure from so

  3. What are the elements required to improve exposure estimates in life cycle assessments?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ernstoff, Alexi; Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Margni, Manuele

    2016-01-01

    In this study we aim to identify and discuss priority elements required to improve exposure estimates in Life cycle assessment (LCA). LCA aims at guiding decision-support to minimize damages on resources, humans, and ecosystems which incur via providing society with products and services. Potential...... human toxicity and ecosystem toxicity of chemicals posed by different product life cycle stages are characterized in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) phase. Exposure and effect quantification as part of LCIA toxicity characterization faces numerous challenges related to inventory analysis (e.......g. number and quantity of chemicals emitted), substance-specific modelling (e.g. organics, inorganics, nano-materials) in various environments and time horizons, human and ecosystem exposure quantification (e.g. exposed organisms and exposure pathways), and toxicity end-points (e.g. carcinogenicity...

  4. Cumulative fatigue damage models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgaw, Michael A.

    1988-01-01

    The problem of calculating expected component life under fatigue loading conditions is complicated by the fact that component loading histories contain, in many cases, cyclic loads of widely varying amplitudes. In such a case a cumulative damage model is required, in addition to a fatigue damage criterion, or life relationship, in order to compute the expected fatigue life. The traditional cumulative damage model used in design is the linear damage rule. This model, while being simple to use, can yield grossly unconservative results under certain loading conditions. Research at the NASA Lewis Research Center has led to the development of a nonlinear cumulative damage model, named the double damage curve approach (DDCA), that has greatly improved predictive capability. This model, which considers the life (or loading) level dependence of damage evolution, was applied successfully to two polycrystalline materials, 316 stainless steel and Haynes 188. The cumulative fatigue behavior of the PWA 1480 single-crystal material is currently being measured to determine the applicability of the DDCA for this material.

  5. 空间色噪声CDMA系统的一种基于累积量DOA估计算法%A Cumulant-Based DOA Estimation Algorithm for CDMA System in Spatial Colored Noise

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨维; 程时昕

    2003-01-01

    传统的DOA估计一般是假设噪声为白高斯的二阶谱估计算法.针对更接近于实际情况的空间色噪声,提出了一种基于累积量MUSIC算法的同步CDMA系统解相干DOA估计算法.该算法不仅能消除多径干扰并且与二阶MUSIC算法相比能更有效抑制空间色噪声,提高估计的准确性.%The conventional direction of arrival (DOA) detection algorithm is generally based on the second-orderspectrum estimation while assuming that the noise is additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN). Concentrating on spatial colored noise of unknown spectrum quality, which is more realistic in any scenario, a novel high-order cumulantMUSIC DOA estimation algorithm for synchronous CDMA system with decorrelator has been proposed. The proposed algorithm not only has the advantages that the DOA of multipath signals can be estimated independently byeliminating all the other resolvable multipath signal interference but while on spatial colored noise case the proposedalgorithm estimates DOAs of the decoupled multipath signal more effectively and accurately than the conventionalsecond-order MUSIC algorithm.

  6. Air Pollution and Lung Function in Dutch Children: A Comparison of Exposure Estimates and Associations Based on Land Use Regression and Dispersion Exposure Modeling Approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Meng; Gehring, Ulrike; Hoek, Gerard; Keuken, Menno; Jonkers, Sander; Beelen, Rob; Eeftens, Marloes; Postma, Dirkje S; Brunekreef, Bert

    2015-08-01

    There is limited knowledge about the extent to which estimates of air pollution effects on health are affected by the choice for a specific exposure model. We aimed to evaluate the correlation between long-term air pollution exposure estimates using two commonly used exposure modeling techniques [dispersion and land use regression (LUR) models] and, in addition, to compare the estimates of the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and lung function in children using these exposure modeling techniques. We used data of 1,058 participants of a Dutch birth cohort study with measured forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and peak expiratory flow (PEF) measurements at 8 years of age. For each child, annual average outdoor air pollution exposure [nitrogen dioxide (NO2), mass concentration of particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 and ≤ 10 μm (PM2.5, PM10), and PM2.5 soot] was estimated for the current addresses of the participants by a dispersion and a LUR model. Associations between exposures to air pollution and lung function parameters were estimated using linear regression analysis with confounder adjustment. Correlations between LUR- and dispersion-modeled pollution concentrations were high for NO2, PM2.5, and PM2.5 soot (R = 0.86-0.90) but low for PM10 (R = 0.57). Associations with lung function were similar for air pollutant exposures estimated using LUR and dispersion modeling, except for associations of PM2.5 with FEV1 and FVC, which were stronger but less precise for exposures based on LUR compared with dispersion model. Predictions from LUR and dispersion models correlated very well for PM2.5, NO2, and PM2.5 soot but not for PM10. Health effect estimates did not depend on the type of model used to estimate exposure in a population of Dutch children.

  7. Estimating mortality derived from indoor exposure to particles of outdoor origin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjing Ji

    Full Text Available Following an extensive review of the literature, we further analyze the published data to examine the health effects of indoor exposure to particulate matter (PM of outdoor origin. We obtained data on all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality per 10 μg/m3 increase in outdoor PM10 or PM2.5; the infiltration factors for buildings; and estimated time spent outdoors by individuals in the United States, Europe, China, and globally. These data were combined log-linear exposure-response model to estimate the all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality of exposure to indoor PM pollution of outdoor origin. Indoor PM pollution of outdoor origin is a cause of considerable mortality, accounting for 81% to 89% of the total increase in mortality associated with exposure to outdoor PM pollution for the studied regions. The findings suggest that enhancing the capacity of buildings to protect occupants against exposure to outdoor PM pollution has significant potential to improve public health outcomes.

  8. Estimated dietary exposure to principal food mycotoxins from the first French Total Diet Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblanc, J-C; Tard, A; Volatier, J-L; Verger, P

    2005-07-01

    This study reports estimates on dietary exposure from the first French Total Diet Study (FTDS) and compares these estimates with both existing tolerable daily intakes for these toxins and the intakes calculated during previous French studies. To estimate the dietary exposure of the French population to the principal mycotoxins in the French diet (as consumed), 456 composite samples were prepared from 2280 individual samples and analysed for aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, trichothecenes, zearalenone, fumonisins and patulin. Average and high percentile intakes were calculated taking account of different eating patterns for adults, children and vegetarians. The results showed that contaminant levels observed in the foods examined 'as consumed' complied fully with current European legislation. However, particular attention needs to be paid to the exposure of specific population groups, such as children and vegans/macrobiotics, who could be exposed to certain mycotoxins in quantities that exceed the tolerable or weekly daily intake levels. This observation is particularly relevant with respect to ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol and zearalenone. For these mycotoxins, cereals and cereal products were the main contributors to high exposure.

  9. Development of a prediction model and estimation of cumulative risk for upper aerodigestive tract cancer on the basis of the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 genotype and alcohol consumption in a Japanese population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koyanagi, Yuriko N.; Ito, Hidemi; Oze, Isao; Hosono, Satoyo; Tanaka, Hideo; Abe, Tetsuya; Shimizu, Yasuhiro; Hasegawa, Yasuhisa

    2017-01-01

    Alcohol consumption and the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) polymorphism are associated with the risk of upper aerodigestive tract cancer, and a significant gene–environment interaction between the two has been confirmed in a Japanese population. To aid the development of a personalized prevention strategy, we developed a risk-prediction model and estimated absolute risks stratified by a combination of the ALDH2 genotype and alcohol consumption. We carried out two age-matched and sex-matched case–control studies: one (630 cases and 1260 controls) for model derivation and the second (654 cases and 654 controls) for external validation. On the basis of data from the derivation study, a prediction model was developed by fitting a conditional logistic regression model using the following predictors: age, sex, smoking, drinking, and the ALDH2 genotype. The risk model, including a combination of the ALDH2 genotype and alcohol consumption, provided high discriminatory accuracy and good calibration in both the derivation and the validation studies: C statistics were 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.80–0.84) and 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.81–0.85), respectively, and the calibration plots of both studies remained close to the ideal calibration line. Cumulative risks were obtained by combining odds ratios estimated from the risk model with the age-specific incidence rate and population size. For heavy drinkers with a heterozygous genotype, the cumulative risk at age 80 was above 20%. In contrast, risk in the other groups was less than 5%. In conclusion, modification of alcohol consumption according to the ALDH2 genotype will have a major impact on upper aerodigestive tract cancer prevention. These findings represent a simple and practical model for personalized cancer prevention. PMID:26862830

  10. Comparison of exposure estimation methods for air pollutants: ambient monitoring data and regional air quality simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, Mercedes A; Fuentes, Montserrat; Zhang, Yang; Burr, Michael J; Bell, Michelle L

    2012-07-01

    Air quality modeling could potentially improve exposure estimates for use in epidemiological studies. We investigated this application of air quality modeling by estimating location-specific (point) and spatially-aggregated (county level) exposure concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM(2.5)) and ozone (O(3)) for the eastern U.S. in 2002 using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system and a traditional approach using ambient monitors. The monitoring approach produced estimates for 370 and 454 counties for PM(2.5) and O(3), respectively. Modeled estimates included 1861 counties, covering 50% more population. The population uncovered by monitors differed from those near monitors (e.g., urbanicity, race, education, age, unemployment, income, modeled pollutant levels). CMAQ overestimated O(3) (annual normalized mean bias=4.30%), while modeled PM(2.5) had an annual normalized mean bias of -2.09%, although bias varied seasonally, from 32% in November to -27% in July. Epidemiology may benefit from air quality modeling, with improved spatial and temporal resolution and the ability to study populations far from monitors that may differ from those near monitors. However, model performance varied by measure of performance, season, and location. Thus, the appropriateness of using such modeled exposures in health studies depends on the pollutant and metric of concern, acceptable level of uncertainty, population of interest, study design, and other factors.

  11. Bias and imprecision in posture percentile variables estimated from short exposure samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathiassen Svend Erik

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Upper arm postures are believed to be an important risk determinant for musculoskeletal disorder development in the neck and shoulders. The 10th and 90th percentiles of the angular elevation distribution have been reported in many studies as measures of neutral and extreme postural exposures, and variation has been quantified by the 10th-90th percentile range. Further, the 50th percentile is commonly reported as a measure of "average" exposure. These four variables have been estimated using samples of observed or directly measured postures, typically using sampling durations between 5 and 120 min. Methods The present study examined the statistical properties of estimated full-shift values of the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile and the 10th-90th percentile range of right upper arm elevation obtained from samples of seven different durations, ranging from 5 to 240 min. The sampling strategies were realized by simulation, using a parent data set of 73 full-shift, continuous inclinometer recordings among hairdressers. For each shift, sampling duration and exposure variable, the mean, standard deviation and sample dispersion limits (2.5% and 97.5% of all possible sample estimates obtained at one minute intervals were calculated and compared to the true full-shift exposure value. Results Estimates of the 10th percentile proved to be upward biased with limited sampling, and those of the 90th percentile and the percentile range, downward biased. The 50th percentile was also slightly upwards biased. For all variables, bias was more severe with shorter sampling durations, and it correlated significantly with the true full-shift value for the 10th and 90th percentiles and the percentile range. As expected, shorter samples led to decreased precision of the estimate; sample standard deviations correlated strongly with true full-shift exposure values. Conclusions The documented risk of pronounced bias and low precision of percentile

  12. [Applying temporally-adjusted land use regression models to estimate ambient air pollution exposure during pregnancy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y J; Xue, F X; Bai, Z P

    2017-03-06

    The impact of maternal air pollution exposure on offspring health has received much attention. Precise and feasible exposure estimation is particularly important for clarifying exposure-response relationships and reducing heterogeneity among studies. Temporally-adjusted land use regression (LUR) models are exposure assessment methods developed in recent years that have the advantage of having high spatial-temporal resolution. Studies on the health effects of outdoor air pollution exposure during pregnancy have been increasingly carried out using this model. In China, research applying LUR models was done mostly at the model construction stage, and findings from related epidemiological studies were rarely reported. In this paper, the sources of heterogeneity and research progress of meta-analysis research on the associations between air pollution and adverse pregnancy outcomes were analyzed. The methods of the characteristics of temporally-adjusted LUR models were introduced. The current epidemiological studies on adverse pregnancy outcomes that applied this model were systematically summarized. Recommendations for the development and application of LUR models in China are presented. This will encourage the implementation of more valid exposure predictions during pregnancy in large-scale epidemiological studies on the health effects of air pollution in China.

  13. A computer-assisted procedure for estimating patient exposure and fetal dose in radiographic examinations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glaze, S.; Schneiders, N.; Bushong, S.C.

    1982-10-01

    A computer program for calculating patient entrance exposure and fetal dose for 11 common radiographic examinations was developed. The output intensity measured at 70 kVp and a 30-inch (76-cm) source-to-skin distance was entered into the program. The change in output intensity with changing kVp was examined for 17 single-phase and 12 three-phase x-ray units. The relationships obtained from a least squares regression analysis of the data, along with the technique factors for each examination, were used to calculate patient exposure. Fetal dose was estimated using published fetal dose in mrad (10/sup -5/ Gy) per 1,000 mR (258 ..mu..C/kg) entrance exposure values. The computations are fully automated and individualized to each radiographic unit. The information provides a ready reference in large institutions and is particularly useful at smaller facilities that do not have available physicists who can make the calculations immediately.

  14. A computer-assisted procedure for estimating patient exposure and fetal dose in radiographic examinations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glaze, S.; Schneiders, N.; Bushong, S.C.

    1982-10-01

    A computer program for calculating patient entrance exposure and fetal dose for 11 common radiographic examinations was developed. The output intensity measured at 70 kVp and a 30-inch (76-cm) source-to-skin distance was entered into the program. The change in output intensity with changing kVp was examined for 17 single-phase and 12 three-phase x-ray units. The relationships obtained from a least squares regression analysis of the data, along with the technique factors for each examination, were used to calculate patient exposure. Fetal dose was estimated using published fetal dose in mrad (10(-5) Gy) per 1,000 mR (258 microC/kg) entrance exposure values. The computations are fully automated and individualized to each radiographic unit. The information provides a ready reference in large institutions and is particularly useful at smaller facilities that do not have available physicians who can make the calculations immediately.

  15. Exposure Estimation for Risk Assessment of the Phthalate Incident in Taiwan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chu-Chih Chen

    Full Text Available In May 2011, di(2-ethylhexyl phthalates (DEHP and, to a lesser extent, di-iso-nonyl phthalate (DiNP were found to have been illegally used for many years in Taiwan as clouding agents in foods including sports drinks, juice beverages, tea drinks, fruit jam/nectar/jelly, and health or nutrient supplements.To estimate the DEHP exposure for the study participants for the follow-up epidemiological study and health risk assessment.A total of 347 individuals possibly highly exposed to phthalate-tainted foods participated in the study. Exposure assessment was performed based on the participants' responses to a structured questionnaire, self-report of exposure history, urinary metabolite concentrations, and DEHP concentration information in 2449 food records. A Bayesian statistical approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was employed to deal with the uncertainties in the DEHP concentrations of the contaminated foods and the participants' likelihood of being exposed.An estimated 37% and 15% of children younger than 12 years old were exposed to DEHP at medium (20-50 μg / kg_bw / day and high AvDIs (50-100 μg / kg_bw / day, respectively, prior to the episode (9% and 3% in adults, respectively. Moreover, 11% of children and 1% of adults were highly exposed (> 100 μg / kg_bw / day, with a maximum of 414.1 μg / kg_bw / day and 126.4 μg / kg_bw / day, respectively.The phthalate exposure-associated adverse health effects for these participants warrant further investigation. The estimation procedure may be applied to other exposure assessment with various sources of uncertainties.

  16. Improving the estimation of flow speed for laser speckle imaging with single exposure time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yang; Wen, Dong; Chen, Xiao; Huang, Qin; Chen, Ming; Lu, Jinling; Li, Pengcheng

    2017-01-01

    Laser speckle contrast imaging is a full-field imaging technique for measuring blood flow by mapping the speckle contrast with high spatial and temporal resolution. However, the statically scattered light from stationary tissues seriously degrades the accuracy of flow speed estimation. In this Letter, we present a simple calibration approach to calculate the proportions of dynamically scattered light and correct the effect of static scattering with single exposure time. Both the phantom and animal experimental results suggest that this calibration approach has the ability to improve the estimation of the relative blood flow in the presence of static scattering.

  17. County-level cumulative environmental quality associated with cancer incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagai, Jyotsna S; Messer, Lynne C; Rappazzo, Kristen M; Gray, Christine L; Grabich, Shannon C; Lobdell, Danelle T

    2017-08-01

    Individual environmental exposures are associated with cancer development; however, environmental exposures occur simultaneously. The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) is a county-level measure of cumulative environmental exposures that occur in 5 domains. The EQI was linked to county-level annual age-adjusted cancer incidence rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program state cancer profiles. All-site cancer and the top 3 site-specific cancers for male and female subjects were considered. Incident rate differences (IRDs; annual rate difference per 100,000 persons) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using fixed-slope, random intercept multilevel linear regression models. Associations were assessed with domain-specific indices and analyses were stratified by rural/urban status. Comparing the highest quintile/poorest environmental quality with the lowest quintile/best environmental quality for overall EQI, all-site county-level cancer incidence rate was positively associated with poor environmental quality overall (IRD, 38.55; 95% CI, 29.57-47.53) and for male (IRD, 32.60; 95% CI, 16.28-48.91) and female (IRD, 30.34; 95% CI, 20.47-40.21) subjects, indicating a potential increase in cancer incidence with decreasing environmental quality. Rural/urban stratified models demonstrated positive associations comparing the highest with the lowest quintiles for all strata, except the thinly populated/rural stratum and in the metropolitan/urbanized stratum. Prostate and breast cancer demonstrated the strongest positive associations with poor environmental quality. We observed strong positive associations between the EQI and all-site cancer incidence rates, and associations differed by rural/urban status and environmental domain. Research focusing on single environmental exposures in cancer development may not address the broader environmental context in which cancers develop, and future research should address cumulative environmental

  18. LEA: An Algorithm to Estimate the Level of Location Exposure in Infrastructure-Based Wireless Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Garcia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Location privacy in wireless networks is nowadays a major concern. This is due to the fact that the mere fact of transmitting may allow a network to pinpoint a mobile node. We consider that a first step to protect a mobile node in this situation is to provide it with the means to quantify how accurately a network establishes its position. To achieve this end, we introduce the location-exposure algorithm (LEA, which runs on the mobile terminal only and whose operation consists of two steps. In the first step, LEA discovers the positions of nearby network nodes and uses this information to emulate how they estimate the position of the mobile node. In the second step, it quantifies the level of exposure by computing the distance between the position estimated in the first step and its true position. We refer to these steps as a location-exposure problem. We tested our proposal with simulations and testbed experiments. These results show the ability of LEA to reproduce the location of the mobile node, as seen by the network, and to quantify the level of exposure. This knowledge can help the mobile user decide which actions should be performed before transmitting.

  19. Estimating population exposure to power plant emissions using CALPUFF: a case study in Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ying; Levy, Jonathan I.; Hammitt, James K.; Evans, John S.

    Epidemiological studies have shown a significant association between ambient particulate matter (PM) exposures and increased mortality and morbidity risk. Power plants are significant emitters of precursor gases of fine particulate matter. To evaluate the public health risk posed by power plants, it is necessary to evaluate population exposure to different pollutants. The concept of intake fraction (the fraction of a pollutant emitted that is eventually inhaled or ingested by a population) has been proposed to provide a simple summary measure of the relationship between emissions and exposure. Currently available intake fraction estimates from developing countries used models that look only at the near field impacts, which may not capture the full impact of a pollution source. This case study demonstrated how the intake fraction of power plant emissions in China can be calculated using a detailed long-range atmospheric dispersion model—CALPUFF. We found that the intake fraction of primary fine particles is roughly on the order of 10 -5, while the intake fractions of sulfur dioxide, sulfate and nitrate are on the order of 10 -6. These estimates are an order of magnitude higher than the US estimates. We also tested how sensitive the results were to key assumptions within the model. The size distribution of primary particles has a large impact on the intake fraction for primary particles while the background ammonia concentration is an important factor influencing the intake fraction of nitrate. The background ozone concentration has a moderate impact on the intake fraction of sulfate and nitrate. Our analysis shows that this approach is applicable to a developing country and it provides reasonable population exposure estimates.

  20. Estimates of per capita exposure to substances migrating from canned foods and beverages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dionisi, G; Oldring, P K T

    2002-09-01

    A study was undertaken by European industry to estimate the consumption of canned beverages and foodstuffs. European can production data were used with adjustments for imports into and out of the EU. It was further assumed that can production, with adjustments, equalled consumption. Owing to the lack of actual consumption country-by-country or household-by-household data throughout Europe, only per capita estimates of consumption were possible. Data were compiled country-by-country for seven major can-producing EU Member States and for eight different types of canned food and two types of canned beverage (beer and soft drinks). The per capita consumption of canned foods was 1.1 cans/person/week, and consumption of canned fish was estimated as 2.2 kg/person/year. The estimate of per capita consumption of canned food was 62 g/person/day or 22.6 kg/person/year. Canned beverages account for about 60% of the consumption of canned foodstuffs. The usefulness of per capita consumption of beverages is questionable because consumption habits may vary more widely than those for canned foods. However, as the migration into beverages is insignificant, these data were added for completeness. Per capita consumption of canned beverages is 67 cans/person/year or 61 g/person/day. From the average can sizes, the surface area of the cans consumed was estimated. The per capita surface area exposure was 0.55 dm(2)/person/day for canned foods and 0.55 dm(2)/person/day for canned beverages, giving 1.1 dm(2)/person/day. Migration of a substance at 0.02 mg dm(2) gives an exposure of 0.01 mg/person/day assuming a per capita consumption, using a surface area model. Migration at 0.12 mg kg(-1) in food gives an exposure of 0.007 mg/person/day using a weight model. Both models assumed migration into all food types at the same level, which is highly unrealistic. Exposure to BADGE from canned foods has been used as a case study. The best estimate for a worst case per capita exposure to BADGE and

  1. Estimating the acute health effects of coarse particulate matter accounting for exposure measurement error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Howard H; Peng, Roger D; Dominici, Francesca

    2011-10-01

    In air pollution epidemiology, there is a growing interest in estimating the health effects of coarse particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter between 2.5 and 10 μm. Coarse PM concentrations can exhibit considerable spatial heterogeneity because the particles travel shorter distances and do not remain suspended in the atmosphere for an extended period of time. In this paper, we develop a modeling approach for estimating the short-term effects of air pollution in time series analysis when the ambient concentrations vary spatially within the study region. Specifically, our approach quantifies the error in the exposure variable by characterizing, on any given day, the disagreement in ambient concentrations measured across monitoring stations. This is accomplished by viewing monitor-level measurements as error-prone repeated measurements of the unobserved population average exposure. Inference is carried out in a Bayesian framework to fully account for uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters. Finally, by using different exposure indicators, we investigate the sensitivity of the association between coarse PM and daily hospital admissions based on a recent national multisite time series analysis. Among Medicare enrollees from 59 US counties between the period 1999 and 2005, we find a consistent positive association between coarse PM and same-day admission for cardiovascular diseases.

  2. Estimation of Exposure Doses for Several Scenarios of the Landfill Disposal of NORM Wastes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Jong Tae; Ko, Nak Yul; Baik, Min Hoon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ki Hoon [Korea Institude of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The Act on safety control of radioactive materials around living environment was promulgated to protect citizen's health and environment in 2013. According to this Act, the integrated plan for radiation protection and the necessary safety guides for treatment, reuse, and disposal of NORM wastes have to be made. And NORM wastes have to be disposed in landfill sites by reducing the concentration of radionuclide, and they should not be reutilized. In this study, we estimated exposure doses for several scenarios for NORM (Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials) waste disposal into a reference landfill site to check the radiological safety. Also, we estimated the amount of NORM wastes for different activity levels of important radionuclides in wastes to be disposed into a landfill site based on the exposure dose limits to support the establishment of technical bases for safety guide. We estimated the amount of NORM wastes for different activity levels of wastes containing U series, Th series, and {sup 40}K based on the exposure dose limits. The results of this study can be used as technical bases to support the establishment of a guide for the safe management of NORM waste disposal.

  3. Comparative Benchmark Dose Modeling as a Tool to Make the First Estimate of Safe Human Exposure Levels to Lunar Dust

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, John T.; Lam, Chiu-wing; Scully, Robert R.

    2013-01-01

    Brief exposures of Apollo Astronauts to lunar dust occasionally elicited upper respiratory irritation; however, no limits were ever set for prolonged exposure ot lunar dust. Habitats for exploration, whether mobile of fixed must be designed to limit human exposure to lunar dust to safe levels. We have used a new technique we call Comparative Benchmark Dose Modeling to estimate safe exposure limits for lunar dust collected during the Apollo 14 mission.

  4. Estimates of Ethanol Exposure in Children from Food not Labeled as Alcohol-Containing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorgus, Eva; Hittinger, Maike; Schrenk, Dieter

    2016-09-01

    Ethanol is widely used in herbal medicines, e.g., for children. Furthermore, alcohol is a constituent of fermented food such as bread or yogurt and "non-fermented" food such as fruit juices. At the same time, exposure to very low levels of ethanol in children is discussed as possibly having adverse effects on psychomotoric functions. Here, we have analyzed alcohol levels in different food products from the German market. It was found that orange, apple and grape juice contain substantial amounts of ethanol (up to 0.77 g/L). Furthermore, certain packed bakery products such as burger rolls or sweet milk rolls contained more than 1.2 g ethanol/100 g. We designed a scenario for average ethanol exposure by a 6-year-old child. Consumption data for the "categories" bananas, bread and bakery products and apple juice were derived from US and German surveys. An average daily exposure of 10.3 mg ethanol/kg body weight (b.w.) was estimated. If a high (acute) consumption level was assumed for one of the "categories," exposure rose to 12.5-23.3 mg/kg b.w. This amount is almost 2-fold (average) or up to 4-fold (high) higher than the lowest exposure from herbal medicines (6 mg/kg b.w.) suggested to require warning hints for the use in children.

  5. Estimating National-Level Exposure to Antineoplastic Agents in the Workplace: CAREX Canada Findings and Future Research Needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Amy L; Demers, Paul A; Astrakianakis, George; Ge, Calvin; Peters, Cheryl E

    2017-07-01

    Occupational exposure to antineoplastic agents occurs in various environments and is associated with increased cancer risk and adverse reproductive outcomes. National-level information describing the location and extent of occupational exposure to antineoplastic agents is unavailable in Canada and most other countries. CAREX Canada aimed to estimate the prevalence and relative levels of occupational exposures to antineoplastic agents across work setting, occupation, and sex. 'Exposure' was defined as any potential for worker contact with antineoplastic agents. Baseline numbers of licensed workers were obtained from their respective professional bodies. For unlicensed workers, Census data or data extrapolated from human resources reports (e.g., staffing ratios) were used. Prevalence was estimated by combining population estimates with exposure proportions from peer-reviewed and grey literature. Exposure levels (classified as low, moderate, and high) by occupation and work setting were estimated qualitatively by combining estimates of contact frequency and exposure control practices. Approximately 75000 Canadians (0.42% of the total workforce) are estimated as occupationally exposed to antineoplastic agents; over 75% are female. The largest occupational group exposed to antineoplastic agents is community pharmacy workers, with 30200 exposed. By work setting, 39000 workers (52% of all exposed) are located in non-hospital settings; the remaining 48% are exposed in hospitals. The majority (75%) of workers are in the moderate exposure category. These estimates of the prevalence and location of occupational exposures to antineoplastic agents could be used to identify high-risk groups, estimate disease burden, and target new research and prevention activities. The limited secondary data available for developing these estimates highlights the need for increased quantitative measurement and documentation of antineoplastic agent contamination and exposure, particularly in

  6. Estimating Inorganic Arsenic Exposure from U.S. Rice and Total Water Intakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantha, Madhavi; Yeary, Edward; Trent, John; Creed, Patricia A; Kubachka, Kevin; Hanley, Traci; Shockey, Nohora; Heitkemper, Douglas; Caruso, Joseph; Xue, Jianping; Rice, Glenn; Wymer, Larry; Creed, John T

    2017-05-30

    Among nonoccupationally exposed U.S. residents, drinking water and diet are considered primary exposure pathways for inorganic arsenic (iAs). In drinking water, iAs is the primary form of arsenic (As), while dietary As speciation techniques are used to differentiate iAs from less toxic arsenicals in food matrices. Our goal was to estimate the distribution of iAs exposure rates from drinking water intakes and rice consumption in the U.S. population and ethnic- and age-based subpopulations. The distribution of iAs in drinking water was estimated by population, weighting the iAs concentrations for each drinking water utility in the Second Six-Year Review data set. To estimate the distribution of iAs concentrations in rice ingested by U.S. consumers, 54 grain-specific, production-weighted composites of rice obtained from U.S. mills were extracted and speciated using both a quantitative dilute nitric acid extraction and speciation (DNAS) and an in vitro gastrointestinal assay to provide an upper bound and bioaccessible estimates, respectively. Daily drinking water intake and rice consumption rate distributions were developed using data from the What We Eat in America (WWEIA) study. Using these data sets, the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS) model estimated mean iAs exposures from drinking water and rice were 4.2 μg/day and 1.4 μg/day, respectively, for the entire U.S. population. The Tribal, Asian, and Pacific population exhibited the highest mean daily exposure of iAs from cooked rice (2.8 μg/day); the mean exposure rate for children between ages 1 and 2 years in this population is 0.104 μg/kg body weight (BW)/day. An average consumer drinking 1.5 L of water daily that contains between 2 and 3 ng iAs/mL is exposed to approximately the same amount of iAs as a mean Tribal, Asian, and Pacific consumer is exposed to from rice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP418. Among nonoccupationally exposed U.S. residents, drinking water and diet are considered

  7. Cumulative Timers for Microprocessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battle, John O.

    2007-01-01

    It has been proposed to equip future microprocessors with electronic cumulative timers, for essentially the same reasons for which land vehicles are equipped with odometers (total-distance-traveled meters) and aircraft are equipped with Hobbs meters (total-engine-operating time meters). Heretofore, there has been no way to determine the amount of use to which a microprocessor (or a product containing a microprocessor) has been subjected. The proposed timers would count all microprocessor clock cycles and could only be read by means of microprocessor instructions but, like odometers and Hobbs meters, could never be reset to zero without physically damaging the chip.

  8. Cumulative Vehicle Routing Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Kara, &#;mdat; Kara, Bahar Yeti&#;; Yeti&#;, M. Kadri

    2008-01-01

    This paper proposes a new objective function and corresponding formulations for the vehicle routing problem. The new cost function defined as the product of the distance of the arc and the flow on that arc. We call a vehicle routing problem with this new objective function as the Cumulative Vehicle Routing Problem (CumVRP). Integer programming formulations with O(n2) binary variables and O(n2) constraints are developed for both collection and delivery cases. We show that the CumVRP is a gener...

  9. Dose estimation derived from the exposure to radon, thoron and their progeny in the indoor environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramola, R. C.; Prasad, Mukesh; Kandari, Tushar; Pant, Preeti; Bossew, Peter; Mishra, Rosaline; Tokonami, S.

    2016-08-01

    The annual exposure to indoor radon, thoron and their progeny imparts a major contribution to inhalation doses received by the public. In this study, we report results of time integrated passive measurements of indoor radon, thoron and their progeny concentrations that were carried out in Garhwal Himalaya with the aim of investigating significant health risk to the dwellers in the region. The measurements were performed using recently developed LR-115 detector based techniques. The experimentally determined values of radon, thoron and their progeny concentrations were used to estimate total annual inhalation dose and annual effective doses. The equilibrium factors for radon and thoron were also determined from the observed data. The estimated value of total annual inhalation dose was found to be 1.8 ± 0.7 mSv/y. The estimated values of the annual effective dose were found to be 1.2 ± 0.5 mSv/y and 0.5 ± 0.3 mSv/y, respectively. The estimated values of radiation doses suggest no important health risk due to exposure of radon, thoron and progeny in the study area. The contribution of indoor thoron and its progeny to total inhalation dose ranges between 13–52% with mean value of 30%. Thus thoron cannot be neglected when assessing radiation doses.

  10. Dose estimation derived from the exposure to radon, thoron and their progeny in the indoor environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramola, R. C.; Prasad, Mukesh; Kandari, Tushar; Pant, Preeti; Bossew, Peter; Mishra, Rosaline; Tokonami, S.

    2016-01-01

    The annual exposure to indoor radon, thoron and their progeny imparts a major contribution to inhalation doses received by the public. In this study, we report results of time integrated passive measurements of indoor radon, thoron and their progeny concentrations that were carried out in Garhwal Himalaya with the aim of investigating significant health risk to the dwellers in the region. The measurements were performed using recently developed LR-115 detector based techniques. The experimentally determined values of radon, thoron and their progeny concentrations were used to estimate total annual inhalation dose and annual effective doses. The equilibrium factors for radon and thoron were also determined from the observed data. The estimated value of total annual inhalation dose was found to be 1.8 ± 0.7 mSv/y. The estimated values of the annual effective dose were found to be 1.2 ± 0.5 mSv/y and 0.5 ± 0.3 mSv/y, respectively. The estimated values of radiation doses suggest no important health risk due to exposure of radon, thoron and progeny in the study area. The contribution of indoor thoron and its progeny to total inhalation dose ranges between 13–52% with mean value of 30%. Thus thoron cannot be neglected when assessing radiation doses. PMID:27499492

  11. 基于四阶累积量的近场源多参数联合估计%Estimation of joint multi-parameters of near-field sources based on the fourth-order cumulant

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王鹏; 邱天爽; 李景春; 谭海峰

    2015-01-01

    A novel joint multi-parameters estimation method for near-field narrow-band sources is proposed.The frequencies,DOAs (direction of arrival,DOA)and ranges of near-field sources are directly estimated by the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors of the constructed fourth-order cumulant matrices.The proposed method does not require any peak search and can be applied to arbitrary Gaussian noise environment.Compared with several existing methods,the proposed method avoids the loss of array aperture and reduces the computational complexity.The comprehensive simulation results demonstrate the validity of this new method.%提出了一种近场窄带信源多参数联合估计新方法,通过所构造四阶累积量矩阵的特征值及其特征向量就可以直接获得近场源频率、方位及距离三维参数的联合估计,无须峰值搜索,适用于任意高斯噪声环境。与现有方法相比,所提方法有效地避免了阵列孔径损失,而且算法简单高效。仿真综合结果表明了新方法的有效性。

  12. Frequencies Estimation of Sinusoidal Embedded in Colored Noises via Cross-High-Order Cumulant LS Method%色噪声背景下正弦频率估计的互高阶谱LS方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马彦; 石要武; 戴逸松

    2001-01-01

    Harmonic retrieval problem considered here concerns with the estimation of the sinusoidal frequencies in hybrid col-red noises. It is applied to the cross-spectral theory and high-order self-spectral theory now. In this paper, Yule-Walker equation based on cross-fourth-order cumulant is developed first. And least square(LS) modified Yule-Walker (LS-Yule-Walker) method is also provided. Simulation results show that the method is effective to estimation sinusoid signal frequencies from hybrid colored noises and has good performance.%在互功率谱估计方法和高阶统计量理论相结合的基础上,提出了现代互高阶谱估计理论。首先推导并建立了基于互四阶累积量的Yule-Walker方程,并在此基础上提出了互四阶累积量的最小二乘(LS)修正Yule-Walker方程方法。仿真结果表明,在混合色噪声背景下,在信噪比达到-5dB的情况下,该方法仍能有效地抑制相关的和不相关的色噪声,具有良好的频率估计性能。

  13. Estimate of dietary exposure to sulphites using Brazilian students as a sample population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popolim, W D; De V C Penteado, M

    2005-11-01

    In Brazil, there is neither a register of the use of sulphites by the food industry nor is research being undertaken on their dietary exposure to the population. The objective of the work reported here was to estimate the dietary exposure to sulphites in two different groups of high school students, a fee-paying school group and a state school group. The data were collected through a 24-hour dietary recall, which provided estimates of sulphited foods and beverages in the diet. The Maximum Permitted Level (MPL), established by the Brazilian legislation for each of the sulphited food and beverages, was used to measure the dietary exposure to this additive. On this basis none of the students could have exceeded the Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) of 0.70 mg SO2/kg bw/day, with a average dietary exposure of 0.07 mg SO2/kg bw/day (p<0.001), with no significant statistical difference (p=0.643) between fee-paying and state school students. Highly exposed consumers (dietary exposure to more than 50% of the ADI, or either, 0.35 mg SO2/kg bw/day, to the maximum of 0.52 mg SO2/kg bw/dia) represented 4.5% of the researched samples and reached these levels of intake due to a consumption beyond 500 ml/day of industrialized packaged fruit juices, and, in the fee-paying school, for associating its consumption with alcoholic beverages like beer and wine.

  14. Comparison of models for estimation of long-term exposure to air pollution in cohort studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beverland, I. J.; Robertson, C.; Yap, C.; Heal, M. R.; Cohen, G. R.; Henderson, D. E. J.; Hart, C. L.; Agius, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    This study compared three spatio-temporal models for estimation of exposure to air pollution throughout the central part of Scotland during 1970-79 for approximately 21,600 individuals in 2 closely-related prospective cohort studies. Although 181 black smoke (BS) monitoring sites operated in this region at some point during 1970-79, a substantial amount of BS exposure data was missing at many sites. The three exposure estimation methods were: (i) area-based regression models to impute missing data followed by assignment of exposure by inverse distance weighting of observed BS at nearby monitoring sites (IDWBS); (ii) area-based regression models to impute missing data followed by a spatial regression additive model using four local air quality predictors (LAQP): altitude; distance to the nearest major road; household density within a 250 m buffer zone; and distance to the edge of urban boundary (AMBS); (iii) a multilevel spatio-temporal model using LAQP (MultiBS). The three methods were evaluated using maps of predicted BS, and cross validation using monitored and imputed BS at sites with ≥80% data. The use of LAQP in the AMBS and MultiBS exposure models provided spatial patterns in BS consistent with known sources of BS associated with major roads and the centre of urban areas. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that the MultiBS model provided more precise predictions (R2 = 60%) of decadal geometric mean BS concentrations at monitoring sites compared with the IDWBS and AMBS models (R2 of 19% and 20%, respectively).

  15. Risk estimates of liver cancer due to aflatoxin exposure from peanuts and peanut products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dichter, C.R.

    1984-06-01

    An assessment was undertaken of the risk of liver cancer in the USA associated with aflatoxin ingestion from peanuts. Both laboratory-animal data and epidemiological data collected from the scientific literature and several prominent mathematical extrapolation techniques were used. Risk estimates differed by a factor of greater than 1000 when the extrapolated results of three selected animal studies were analysed. Dose-response data for the male Fischer rat, the most sensitive mammalian species studied, produced an estimate of 158 cases of liver cancer per year in the USA at current levels of aflatoxin exposure. An estimate of 58 annual cases was predicted on the basis of epidemiological data of populations in Africa and Thailand.

  16. Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Anne Kirstine; Bosgra, Sieto; Boon, Polly E.;

    2009-01-01

    reproductive endpoints (ano-genital distance, and weights of the seminal vesicles and the musculus levator ani/bulbocavernosus) in male rat foetuses exposed in utero. The cumulative dietary intake was estimated based on consumption data and residue data from the Netherlands. The IPRA model combines variability...... in both exposure and sensitivity between individuals into a distribution of individual margins of exposures (IMoEs) and IMoEs of 1 or less indicate a possible concern. The assessment did not result in IMoEs ≤ 1. The endpoint ‘weight of seminal vesicles’ resulted in the lowest IMoEs (0.1th percentile: 198...

  17. Estimated lead (Pb) exposures for a population of urban community gardeners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spliethoff, Henry M; Mitchell, Rebecca G; Shayler, Hannah; Marquez-Bravo, Lydia G; Russell-Anelli, Jonathan; Ferenz, Gretchen; McBride, Murray

    2016-08-01

    Urban community gardens provide affordable, locally grown, healthy foods and many other benefits. However, urban garden soils can contain lead (Pb) that may pose risks to human health. To help evaluate these risks, we measured Pb concentrations in soil, vegetables, and chicken eggs from New York City community gardens, and we asked gardeners about vegetable consumption and time spent in the garden. We then estimated Pb intakes deterministically and probabilistically for adult gardeners, children who spend time in the garden, and adult (non-gardener) household members. Most central tendency Pb intakes were below provisional total tolerable intake (PTTI) levels. High contact intakes generally exceeded PTTIs. Probabilistic estimates showed approximately 40 % of children and 10 % of gardeners exceeding PTTIs. Children's exposure came primarily from dust ingestion and exposure to higher Pb soil between beds. Gardeners' Pb intakes were comparable to children's (in µg/day) but were dominated by vegetable consumption. Adult household members ate less garden-grown produce than gardeners and had the lowest Pb intakes. Our results suggest that healthy gardening practices to reduce Pb exposure in urban community gardens should focus on encouraging cultivation of lower Pb vegetables (i.e., fruits) for adult gardeners and on covering higher Pb non-bed soils accessible to young children. However, the common practice of replacement of root-zone bed soil with clean soil (e.g., in raised beds) has many benefits and should also continue to be encouraged.

  18. Estimating mercury exposure of piscivorous birds and sport fish using prey fish monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Joshua T.; Hartman, C. Alex; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Herzog, Mark P.; Davis, Jay; Ichikawa, Gary; Bonnema, Autumn

    2015-01-01

    Methylmercury is a global pollutant of aquatic ecosystems, and monitoring programs need tools to predict mercury exposure of wildlife. We developed equations to estimate methylmercury exposure of piscivorous birds and sport fish using mercury concentrations in prey fish. We collected original data on western grebes (Aechmophorus occidentalis) and Clark’s grebes (Aechmophorus clarkii) and summarized the published literature to generate predictive equations specific to grebes and a general equation for piscivorous birds. We measured mercury concentrations in 354 grebes (blood averaged 1.06 ± 0.08 μg/g ww), 101 grebe eggs, 230 sport fish (predominantly largemouth bass and rainbow trout), and 505 prey fish (14 species) at 25 lakes throughout California. Mercury concentrations in grebe blood, grebe eggs, and sport fish were strongly related to mercury concentrations in prey fish among lakes. Each 1.0 μg/g dw (∼0.24 μg/g ww) increase in prey fish resulted in an increase in mercury concentrations of 103% in grebe blood, 92% in grebe eggs, and 116% in sport fish. We also found strong correlations between mercury concentrations in grebes and sport fish among lakes. Our results indicate that prey fish monitoring can be used to estimate mercury exposure of piscivorous birds and sport fish when wildlife cannot be directly sampled.

  19. Estimating Mercury Exposure of Piscivorous Birds and Sport Fish Using Prey Fish Monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Joshua T; Hartman, C Alex; Eagles-Smith, Collin A; Herzog, Mark P; Davis, Jay; Ichikawa, Gary; Bonnema, Autumn

    2015-11-17

    Methylmercury is a global pollutant of aquatic ecosystems, and monitoring programs need tools to predict mercury exposure of wildlife. We developed equations to estimate methylmercury exposure of piscivorous birds and sport fish using mercury concentrations in prey fish. We collected original data on western grebes (Aechmophorus occidentalis) and Clark's grebes (Aechmophorus clarkii) and summarized the published literature to generate predictive equations specific to grebes and a general equation for piscivorous birds. We measured mercury concentrations in 354 grebes (blood averaged 1.06 ± 0.08 μg/g ww), 101 grebe eggs, 230 sport fish (predominantly largemouth bass and rainbow trout), and 505 prey fish (14 species) at 25 lakes throughout California. Mercury concentrations in grebe blood, grebe eggs, and sport fish were strongly related to mercury concentrations in prey fish among lakes. Each 1.0 μg/g dw (∼0.24 μg/g ww) increase in prey fish resulted in an increase in mercury concentrations of 103% in grebe blood, 92% in grebe eggs, and 116% in sport fish. We also found strong correlations between mercury concentrations in grebes and sport fish among lakes. Our results indicate that prey fish monitoring can be used to estimate mercury exposure of piscivorous birds and sport fish when wildlife cannot be directly sampled.

  20. Estimating individual exposure to malaria using local prevalence of malaria infection in the field.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ally Olotu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Heterogeneity in malaria exposure complicates survival analyses of vaccine efficacy trials and confounds the association between immune correlates of protection and malaria infection in longitudinal studies. Analysis may be facilitated by taking into account the variability in individual exposure levels, but it is unclear how exposure can be estimated at an individual level. METHOD AND FINDINGS: We studied three cohorts (Chonyi, Junju and Ngerenya in Kilifi District, Kenya to assess measures of malaria exposure. Prospective data were available on malaria episodes, geospatial coordinates, proximity to infected and uninfected individuals and residence in predefined malaria hotspots for 2,425 individuals. Antibody levels to the malaria antigens AMA1 and MSP1(142 were available for 291 children from Junju. We calculated distance-weighted local prevalence of malaria infection within 1 km radius as a marker of individual's malaria exposure. We used multivariable modified Poisson regression model to assess the discriminatory power of these markers for malaria infection (i.e. asymptomatic parasitaemia or clinical malaria. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was used to assess the discriminatory power of the models. Local malaria prevalence within 1 km radius and AMA1 and MSP1(142 antibodies levels were independently associated with malaria infection. Weighted local malaria prevalence had an area under ROC curve of 0.72 (95%CI: 0.66-0.73, 0.71 (95%CI: 0.69-0.73 and 0.82 (95%CI: 0.80-0.83 among cohorts in Chonyi, Junju and Ngerenya respectively. In a small subset of children from Junju, a model incorporating weighted local malaria prevalence with AMA1 and MSP1(142 antibody levels provided an AUC of 0.83 (95%CI: 0.79-0.88. CONCLUSION: We have proposed an approach to estimating the intensity of an individual's malaria exposure in the field. The weighted local malaria prevalence can be used as individual marker of

  1. Comparison of temporal realistic telecommunication base station exposure with worst-case estimation in two countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahfouz, Zaher; Verloock, Leen; Joseph, Wout; Tanghe, Emmeric; Gati, Azeddine; Wiart, Joe; Lautru, David; Hanna, Victor Fouad; Martens, Luc

    2013-12-01

    The influence of temporal daily exposure to global system for mobile communications (GSM) and universal mobile telecommunications systems and high speed downlink packet access (UMTS-HSDPA) is investigated using spectrum analyser measurements in two countries, France and Belgium. Temporal variations and traffic distributions are investigated. Three different methods to estimate maximal electric-field exposure are compared. The maximal realistic (99 %) and the maximal theoretical extrapolation factor used to extrapolate the measured broadcast control channel (BCCH) for GSM and the common pilot channel (CPICH) for UMTS are presented and compared for the first time in the two countries. Similar conclusions are found in the two countries for both urban and rural areas: worst-case exposure assessment overestimates realistic maximal exposure up to 5.7 dB for the considered example. In France, the values are the highest, because of the higher population density. The results for the maximal realistic extrapolation factor at the weekdays are similar to those from weekend days.

  2. Theoretical estimates of exposure timescales of protein binding sites on DNA regulated by nucleosome kinetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parmar, Jyotsana J; Das, Dibyendu; Padinhateeri, Ranjith

    2016-02-29

    It is being increasingly realized that nucleosome organization on DNA crucially regulates DNA-protein interactions and the resulting gene expression. While the spatial character of the nucleosome positioning on DNA has been experimentally and theoretically studied extensively, the temporal character is poorly understood. Accounting for ATPase activity and DNA-sequence effects on nucleosome kinetics, we develop a theoretical method to estimate the time of continuous exposure of binding sites of non-histone proteins (e.g. transcription factors and TATA binding proteins) along any genome. Applying the method to Saccharomyces cerevisiae, we show that the exposure timescales are determined by cooperative dynamics of multiple nucleosomes, and their behavior is often different from expectations based on static nucleosome occupancy. Examining exposure times in the promoters of GAL1 and PHO5, we show that our theoretical predictions are consistent with known experiments. We apply our method genome-wide and discover huge gene-to-gene variability of mean exposure times of TATA boxes and patches adjacent to TSS (+1 nucleosome region); the resulting timescale distributions have non-exponential tails.

  3. Binational Arsenic Exposure Survey: Methodology and Estimated Arsenic Intake from Drinking Water and Urinary Arsenic Concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin B. Harris

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Binational Arsenic Exposure Survey (BAsES was designed to evaluate probable arsenic exposures in selected areas of southern Arizona and northern Mexico, two regions with known elevated levels of arsenic in groundwater reserves. This paper describes the methodology of BAsES and the relationship between estimated arsenic intake from beverages and arsenic output in urine. Households from eight communities were selected for their varying groundwater arsenic concentrations in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. Adults responded to questionnaires and provided dietary information. A first morning urine void and water from all household drinking sources were collected. Associations between urinary arsenic concentration (total, organic, inorganic and estimated level of arsenic consumed from water and other beverages were evaluated through crude associations and by random effects models. Median estimated total arsenic intake from beverages among participants from Arizona communities ranged from 1.7 to 14.1 µg/day compared to 0.6 to 3.4 µg/day among those from Mexico communities. In contrast, median urinary inorganic arsenic concentrations were greatest among participants from Hermosillo, Mexico (6.2 µg/L whereas a high of 2.0 µg/L was found among participants from Ajo, Arizona. Estimated arsenic intake from drinking water was associated with urinary total arsenic concentration (p < 0.001, urinary inorganic arsenic concentration (p < 0.001, and urinary sum of species (p < 0.001. Urinary arsenic concentrations increased between 7% and 12% for each one percent increase in arsenic consumed from drinking water. Variability in arsenic intake from beverages and urinary arsenic output yielded counter intuitive results. Estimated intake of arsenic from all beverages was greatest among Arizonans yet participants in Mexico had higher urinary total and inorganic arsenic concentrations. Other contributors to urinary arsenic concentrations should be evaluated.

  4. Binational arsenic exposure survey: methodology and estimated arsenic intake from drinking water and urinary arsenic concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberge, Jason; O'Rourke, Mary Kay; Meza-Montenegro, Maria Mercedes; Gutiérrez-Millán, Luis Enrique; Burgess, Jefferey L; Harris, Robin B

    2012-04-01

    The Binational Arsenic Exposure Survey (BAsES) was designed to evaluate probable arsenic exposures in selected areas of southern Arizona and northern Mexico, two regions with known elevated levels of arsenic in groundwater reserves. This paper describes the methodology of BAsES and the relationship between estimated arsenic intake from beverages and arsenic output in urine. Households from eight communities were selected for their varying groundwater arsenic concentrations in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. Adults responded to questionnaires and provided dietary information. A first morning urine void and water from all household drinking sources were collected. Associations between urinary arsenic concentration (total, organic, inorganic) and estimated level of arsenic consumed from water and other beverages were evaluated through crude associations and by random effects models. Median estimated total arsenic intake from beverages among participants from Arizona communities ranged from 1.7 to 14.1 µg/day compared to 0.6 to 3.4 µg/day among those from Mexico communities. In contrast, median urinary inorganic arsenic concentrations were greatest among participants from Hermosillo, Mexico (6.2 µg/L) whereas a high of 2.0 µg/L was found among participants from Ajo, Arizona. Estimated arsenic intake from drinking water was associated with urinary total arsenic concentration (p < 0.001), urinary inorganic arsenic concentration (p < 0.001), and urinary sum of species (p < 0.001). Urinary arsenic concentrations increased between 7% and 12% for each one percent increase in arsenic consumed from drinking water. Variability in arsenic intake from beverages and urinary arsenic output yielded counter intuitive results. Estimated intake of arsenic from all beverages was greatest among Arizonans yet participants in Mexico had higher urinary total and inorganic arsenic concentrations. Other contributors to urinary arsenic concentrations should be evaluated.

  5. Estimating pesticide exposure from dietary intake and organic food choices: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curl, Cynthia L; Beresford, Shirley A A; Fenske, Richard A; Fitzpatrick, Annette L; Lu, Chensheng; Nettleton, Jennifer A; Kaufman, Joel D

    2015-05-01

    Organophosphate pesticide (OP) exposure to the U.S. population is dominated by dietary intake. The magnitude of exposure from diet depends partly on personal decisions such as which foods to eat and whether to choose organic food. Most studies of OP exposure rely on urinary biomarkers, which are limited by short half-lives and often lack specificity to parent compounds. A reliable means of estimating long-term dietary exposure to individual OPs is needed to assess the potential relationship with adverse health effects. We assessed long-term dietary exposure to 14 OPs among 4,466 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and examined the influence of organic produce consumption on this exposure. Individual-level exposure was estimated by combining information on typical intake of specific food items with average OP residue levels on those items. In an analysis restricted to a subset of participants who reported rarely or never eating organic produce ("conventional consumers"), we assessed urinary dialkylphosphate (DAP) levels across tertiles of estimated exposure (n = 480). In a second analysis, we compared DAP levels across subgroups with differing self-reported organic produce consumption habits (n = 240). Among conventional consumers, increasing tertile of estimated dietary OP exposure was associated with higher DAP concentrations (p organic produce (p organic produce was associated with lower DAPs.

  6. Comparisons of discrete and integrative sampling accuracy in estimating pulsed aquatic exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Shane A; Luttbeg, Barney; Belden, Jason B

    2016-11-01

    Most current-use pesticides have short half-lives in the water column and thus the most relevant exposure scenarios for many aquatic organisms are pulsed exposures. Quantifying exposure using discrete water samples may not be accurate as few studies are able to sample frequently enough to accurately determine time-weighted average (TWA) concentrations of short aquatic exposures. Integrative sampling methods that continuously sample freely dissolved contaminants over time intervals (such as integrative passive samplers) have been demonstrated to be a promising measurement technique. We conducted several modeling scenarios to test the assumption that integrative methods may require many less samples for accurate estimation of peak 96-h TWA concentrations. We compared the accuracies of discrete point samples and integrative samples while varying sampling frequencies and a range of contaminant water half-lives (t50 = 0.5, 2, and 8 d). Differences the predictive accuracy of discrete point samples and integrative samples were greatest at low sampling frequencies. For example, when the half-life was 0.5 d, discrete point samples required 7 sampling events to ensure median values > 50% and no sampling events reporting highly inaccurate results (defined as sampling only required two samples to prevent highly inaccurate results and measurements resulting in median values > 50% of the true concentration. Regardless, the need for integrative sampling diminished as water half-life increased. For an 8-d water half-life, two discrete samples produced accurate estimates and median values greater than those obtained for two integrative samples. Overall, integrative methods are the more accurate method for monitoring contaminants with short water half-lives due to reduced frequency of extreme values, especially with uncertainties around the timing of pulsed events. However, the acceptability of discrete sampling methods for providing accurate concentration measurements

  7. Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

  8. A simple procedure for estimating pseudo risk ratios from exposure to non-carcinogenic chemical mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scinicariello, Franco; Portier, Christopher

    2016-03-01

    Non-cancer risk assessment traditionally assumes a threshold of effect, below which there is a negligible risk of an adverse effect. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry derives health-based guidance values known as Minimal Risk Levels (MRLs) as estimates of the toxicity threshold for non-carcinogens. Although the definition of an MRL, as well as EPA reference dose values (RfD and RfC), is a level that corresponds to "negligible risk," they represent daily exposure doses or concentrations, not risks. We present a new approach to calculate the risk at exposure to specific doses for chemical mixtures, the assumption in this approach is to assign de minimis risk at the MRL. The assigned risk enables the estimation of parameters in an exponential model, providing a complete dose-response curve for each compound from the chosen point of departure to zero. We estimated parameters for 27 chemicals. The value of k, which determines the shape of the dose-response curve, was moderately insensitive to the choice of the risk at the MRL. The approach presented here allows for the calculation of a risk from a single substance or the combined risk from multiple chemical exposures in a community. The methodology is applicable from point of departure data derived from quantal data, such as data from benchmark dose analyses or from data that can be transformed into probabilities, such as lowest-observed-adverse-effect level. The individual risks are used to calculate risk ratios that can facilitate comparison and cost-benefit analyses of environmental contamination control strategies.

  9. Intraurban-scale dispersion modelling of particulate matter concentrations: Applications for exposure estimates in cohort studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaines Wilson, J.; Zawar-Reza, Peyman

    Epidemiological studies relating air pollution to health effects often estimate personal exposure to particulate matter using values from a central ambient monitoring site as a proxy. However, when there is a significant amount of variation in particulate concentrations across an urban area, the use of central sites may result in exposure misclassification that induces error in long-term cohort epidemiological study designs. When spatially dense monitoring data are not available, advanced dispersion models may offer one solution to the problem of accurately characterising intraurban particulate concentrations across an area. This study presents results from an intraurban assessment of The Air Pollution Model (TAPM)—an Integrated Meteorological-Emission (IME) Model. Particles less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM 10) were modelled and compared with a dense intraurban monitoring network in Christchurch, New Zealand, a city with high winter levels of particulate air pollution. Despite the area's high intraurban concentration variability, and meteorological and topographical complexity, the model performed satisfactorily overall, with mean observed and modelled concentrations of 42.9 and 43.4 μg m -3, respectively, while the mean Index of Agreement (IOA) between individual sites was 0.60 and the mean systematic RMSE was 16.9 μg m -3. Most of the systematic error in the model was due to coarse spatial resolution of the local emission inventory and complex meteorology attributed to localised convergence of drainage flows, especially on the western and southern fringes of the urban area. Given further improvements in site-specific estimates within urban areas, IME models such as TAPM may be a viable alternative to central sites for estimating personal exposure in longer-term (monthly or annual) cohort epidemiological studies.

  10. Aircrew radiation exposure estimates and the effect of solar flare anisotropy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al Anid, H.; Lewis, B.J.; Bennett, L.G.I. [Royal Military College of Canada, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Kingston, Ontario (Canada); Takada, M. [National Inst. of Radiological Science, International Space Radiation Lab., Anagawa, Inage-Ku, Chiba (Japan)

    2011-07-01

    A transport code analysis using the Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended code, MCNPX, has been used to propagate an extrapolated particle spectrum based on satellite measurements through the atmosphere to estimate radiation exposure during solar particle events at aircraft altitudes. A comparison was made between the model predictions and actual flight measurements taken with various types of instruments during Ground Level Event 60. A computer-code has been developed to implement the model for routine analysis. Current research is focused on introducing a new anisotropy model that uses neutron monitor responses and pitch angle data to identify anisotropy and correct for it. (author)

  11. Estimating population food and nutrient exposure: a comparison of store survey data with household panel food purchases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyles, Helen; Neal, Bruce; Jiang, Yannan; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona

    2016-05-28

    Population exposure to food and nutrients can be estimated from household food purchases, but store surveys of foods and their composition are more available, less costly and might provide similar information. Our aim was to compare estimates of nutrient exposure from a store survey of packaged food with those from household panel food purchases. A cross-sectional store survey of all packaged foods for sale in two major supermarkets was undertaken in Auckland, New Zealand, between February and May 2012. Longitudinal household food purchase data (November 2011 to October 2012) were obtained from the nationally representative, population-weighted New Zealand Nielsen HomeScan® panel. Data on 8440 packaged food and non-alcoholic beverage products were collected in the store survey. Food purchase data were available for 1229 households and 16 812 products. Store survey data alone produced higher estimates of exposure to Na and sugar compared with estimates from household panel food purchases. The estimated mean difference in exposure to Na was 94 (95 % CI 72, 115) mg/100 g (20 % relative difference; Pfood purchases, store survey data provided a reasonable estimate of average population exposure to key nutrients from packaged foods. However, caution should be exercised in using such data to estimate population exposure to Na and sugar and in generalising these findings to other countries, as well as over time.

  12. A PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC/PHARMACODYNAMIC (PBPK/PD) MODEL FOR ESTIMATION OF CUMULATIVE RISK FROM EXPOSURE TO THREE N-METHYL CARBAMATES: CARBARYL, ALDICARB, AND CARBOFURAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    A physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for a mixture of N-methyl carbamate pesticides was developed based on single chemical models. The model was used to compare urinary metabolite concentrations to levels from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHA...

  13. Estimation of radiofrequency power leakage from microwave ovens for dosimetric assessment at nonionizing radiation exposure levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Iturri, Peio; de Miguel-Bilbao, Silvia; Aguirre, Erik; Azpilicueta, Leire; Falcone, Francisco; Ramos, Victoria

    2015-01-01

    The electromagnetic field leakage levels of nonionizing radiation from a microwave oven have been estimated within a complex indoor scenario. By employing a hybrid simulation technique, based on coupling full wave simulation with an in-house developed deterministic 3D ray launching code, estimations of the observed electric field values can be obtained for the complete indoor scenario. The microwave oven can be modeled as a time- and frequency-dependent radiating source, in which leakage, basically from the microwave oven door, is propagated along the complete indoor scenario interacting with all of the elements present in it. This method can be of aid in order to assess the impact of such devices on expected exposure levels, allowing adequate minimization strategies such as optimal location to be applied.

  14. Estimation of Radiofrequency Power Leakage from Microwave Ovens for Dosimetric Assessment at Nonionizing Radiation Exposure Levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peio Lopez-Iturri

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The electromagnetic field leakage levels of nonionizing radiation from a microwave oven have been estimated within a complex indoor scenario. By employing a hybrid simulation technique, based on coupling full wave simulation with an in-house developed deterministic 3D ray launching code, estimations of the observed electric field values can be obtained for the complete indoor scenario. The microwave oven can be modeled as a time- and frequency-dependent radiating source, in which leakage, basically from the microwave oven door, is propagated along the complete indoor scenario interacting with all of the elements present in it. This method can be of aid in order to assess the impact of such devices on expected exposure levels, allowing adequate minimization strategies such as optimal location to be applied.

  15. Structural Vibration Monitoring Using Cumulative Spectral Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoru Goto

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a resonance decay estimation for structural health monitoring in the presence of nonstationary vibrations. In structural health monitoring, the structure's frequency response and resonant decay characteristics are very important for understanding how the structure changes. Cumulative spectral analysis (CSA estimates the frequency decay by using the impulse response. However, measuring the impulse response of buildings is impractical due to the need to shake the building itself. In a previous study, we reported on system damping monitoring using cumulative harmonic analysis (CHA, which is based on CSA. The current study describes scale model experiments on estimating the hidden resonance decay under non-stationary noise conditions by using CSA for structural condition monitoring.

  16. Estimated Risk of Developing Selected DSM-IV Disorders among 5-Year-Old Children with Prenatal Cocaine Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Connie E.; Accornero, Veronica H.; Xue, Lihua; Manjunath, Sudha; Culbertson, Jan L.; Anthony, James C.; Bandstra, Emmalee S.

    2009-01-01

    We estimated childhood risk of developing selected DSM-IV Disorders, including Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD), and Separation Anxiety Disorder (SAD), in children with prenatal cocaine exposure (PCE). Children were enrolled prospectively at birth (n = 476) with prenatal drug exposures documented…

  17. Sampling strategies for estimating acute and chronic exposures of pesticides in streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Charles G.

    2004-01-01

    The Food Quality Protection Act of 1996 requires that human exposure to pesticides through drinking water be considered when establishing pesticide tolerances in food. Several systematic and seasonally weighted systematic sampling strategies for estimating pesticide concentrations in surface water were evaluated through Monte Carlo simulation, using intensive datasets from four sites in northwestern Ohio. The number of samples for the strategies ranged from 4 to 120 per year. Sampling strategies with a minimal sampling frequency outside the growing season can be used for estimating time weighted mean and percentile concentrations of pesticides with little loss of accuracy and precision, compared to strategies with the same sampling frequency year round. Less frequent sampling strategies can be used at large sites. A sampling frequency of 10 times monthly during the pesticide runoff period at a 90 km 2 basin and four times monthly at a 16,400 km2 basin provided estimates of the time weighted mean, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile concentrations that fell within 50 percent of the true value virtually all of the time. By taking into account basin size and the periodic nature of pesticide runoff, costs of obtaining estimates of time weighted mean and percentile pesticide concentrations can be minimized.

  18. Estimated Dietary Exposure to Mycotoxins after Taking into Account the Cooking of Staple Foods in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiro Saito

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Mycotoxins are commonly present in cereal grains and are not completely destroyed during their cooking and processing. When mycotoxins contaminate staple foods, the risk for exposure becomes serious. In East Asia, including Japan, rice is consumed as a staple food, and with the increasingly Westernized lifestyle, the consumption of wheat has increased. The mycotoxins commonly associated with rice and wheat are total aflatoxin (AFL and ochratoxin A (OTA, respectively. This study examined the retention of AFL and OTA during the cooking of rice and pasta. AFL was retained at 83%–89% the initial level after the cooking of steamed rice. In pasta noodles, more than 60% of the OTA was retained. These results show that AFL and OTA are relatively stable during the cooking process, suggesting that a major reduction in the exposure to these mycotoxins cannot be expected to occur by cooking rice and pasta. The estimated exposure assessment at the high consumer level (95th percentile and the mycotoxin contamination level determined by taking into account these reductions in the present study should be useful for the establishment of practical regulations for mycotoxins in staple foods.

  19. Estimation of exposure to sunlight of the liner under a tiled roof

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holck, Ole; Rosenfeld, J.L.J.

    2005-01-01

    and strike the liner, accelerating its degradation. The purpose of this study is to estimate the extent and duration of the exposure. A typical gap is modelled in a ray-tracing program and the size and position of the illuminated area on the liner is calculated for given directions of the light beam relative...... to the roof. Analytic expressions for the size of the illuminated area are obtained using a thick slit model. The accuracy of the model was assessed by some experimental measurements. The exposure over one year of the roof liner was calculated using the Design Reference Year for Copenhagen, Denmark....... Simulations were carried out for a roof tilted at 25degrees, 35degrees or 45degrees, facing SE, S, SW or W. For the particular roof construction and gap studied, the maximum annual exposure of a 25 mm(2) piece of the liner placed 150 mm below the gap (corresponding to about 100 mm below the base of the tiles...

  20. Estimated risk from exposure to radon decay products in US homes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nero, A.V. Jr.

    1986-05-01

    Recent analyses now permit direct estimation of the risks of lung cancer from radon decay products in US homes. Analysis of data from indoor monitoring in single-family homes yields a tentative frequency distribution of annual-average /sup 222/Rn concentrations averaging 55 Bq m/sup -3/ and having 2% of homes exceeding 300 Bq m/sup -3/. Application of the results of occupational epidemiological studies, either directly or using recent advances in lung dosimetry, to indoor exposures suggests that the average indoor concentration entails a lifetime risk of lung cancer of 0.3% or about 10% of the total risk of lung cancer. The risk to individuals occupying the homes with 300 Bq m/sup -3/ or more for their lifetimes is estimated to exceed 2%, with risks from the homes with thousands of Bq m/sup -3/ correspondingly higher, even exceeding the total risk of premature death due to cigarette smoking. The potential for such average and high-level risks in ordinary homes forces development of a new perspective on environmental exposures.

  1. Characterization of the Cosmic Radiation Field at Flight Altitudes and Estimation of Aircrew Exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Jong Ho

    2004-02-15

    Cosmic radiation field at flight altitudes was simulated using the FLUKA Monte Carlo transport code and the spectra of secondary particles were obtained from the simulation. The obtained particle spectra were converted into effective dose rates by means of appropriate sets of conversion coefficients. The result shows that higher dose rates are observed at the higher altitude than the lower, at the higher latitude than the lower, and at the solar minimum than the maximum. Also it is confirmed that CARI-6 used in the estimation of aircrew exposure along specific flights provides approximately the same doses as the results of FLUKA calculations. Accordingly, the route doses to the personnels on board due to cosmic radiation were calculated for Korean-based commercial international airline routes using CARI-6. Annual individual doses to aircrew and the collective effective dose of passengers were estimated by applying the calculated route doses to the flight schedules of aircrew and the air travel statistics of Korea. The result shows that the annual doses to aircrew exceed the annual dose limit of public and are comparable to those of the group of workers occupationally exposed. Therefore it is necessary to consider the aircrew as the occupational exposure group. Also the annual collective dose to 11 million Korean passengers in 2001 appeared to be 136 man-Sv.

  2. Estimated Maternal Pesticide Exposure from Drinking Water and Heart Defects in Offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jihye; Swartz, Michael D; Langlois, Peter H; Romitti, Paul A; Weyer, Peter; Mitchell, Laura E; Luben, Thomas J; Ramakrishnan, Anushuya; Malik, Sadia; Lupo, Philip J; Feldkamp, Marcia L; Meyer, Robert E; Winston, Jennifer J; Reefhuis, Jennita; Blossom, Sarah J; Bell, Erin; Agopian, A J

    2017-08-08

    Our objective was to examine the relationship between estimated maternal exposure to pesticides in public drinking water and the risk of congenital heart defects (CHD). We used mixed-effects logistic regression to analyze data from 18,291 nonsyndromic cases with heart defects from the Texas Birth Defects Registry and 4414 randomly-selected controls delivered in Texas from 1999 through 2005. Water district-level pesticide exposure was estimated by linking each maternal residential address to the corresponding public water supply district's measured atrazine levels. We repeated analyses among independent subjects from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS) (1620 nonsyndromic cases with heart defects and 1335 controls delivered from 1999 through 2005). No positive associations were observed between high versus low atrazine level and eight CHD subtypes or all included heart defects combined. These findings should be interpreted with caution, in light of potential misclassification and relatively large proportions of subjects with missing atrazine data. Thus, more consistent and complete monitoring and reporting of drinking water contaminants will aid in better understanding the relationships between pesticide water contaminants and birth defects.

  3. Exposure Estimation from Multi-Resolution Optical Satellite Imagery for Seismic Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jochen Zschau

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Given high urbanization rates and increasing spatio-temporal variability in many present-day cities, exposure information is often out-of-date, highly aggregated or spatially fragmented, increasing the uncertainties associated with seismic risk assessments. This work therefore aims at using space-based technologies to estimate, complement and extend exposure data at multiple scales, over large areas and at a comparatively low cost for the case of the city of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. At a neighborhood scale, an analysis of urban structures using medium-resolution optical satellite images is performed. Applying image classification and change-detection analysis to a time-series of Landsat images, the urban environment can be delineated into areas of relatively homogeneous urban structure types, which can provide a first estimate of an exposed building stock (e.g., approximate age of structures, composition and distribution of predominant building types. At a building-by-building scale, a more detailed analysis of the exposed building stock is carried out using a high-resolution Quickbird image. Furthermore, the multi-resolution datasets are combined with census data to disaggregate population statistics. The tools used within this study are being developed on a free- and open-source basis and aim at being transparent, usable and transferable.

  4. High-resolution harmonic retrieval using the full fourth-order cumulant

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vossen, S.H.J.A.; Naus, H.W.L.; Zwamborn, A.P.M.

    2010-01-01

    The harmonic retrieval (HR) problem concerns the estimation of the frequencies in a sum of real or complex harmonics. Both correlation and cumulant-based approaches are used for this purpose. Cumulant-based HR algorithms use a single 1-D slice of the fourth-order cumulant that is estimated directly

  5. Modeling of road traffic noise and estimated human exposure in Fulton County, Georgia, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seong, Jeong C; Park, Tae H; Ko, Joon H; Chang, Seo I; Kim, Minho; Holt, James B; Mehdi, Mohammed R

    2011-11-01

    Environmental noise is a major source of public complaints. Noise in the community causes physical and socio-economic effects and has been shown to be related to adverse health impacts. Noise, however, has not been actively researched in the United States compared with the European Union countries in recent years. In this research, we aimed at modeling road traffic noise and analyzing human exposure in Fulton County, Georgia, United States. We modeled road traffic noise levels using the United States Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Traffic Noise Model implemented in SoundPLAN®. After analyzing noise levels with raster, vector and façade maps, we estimated human exposure to high noise levels. Accurate digital elevation models and building heights were derived from Light Detection And Ranging survey datasets and building footprint boundaries. Traffic datasets were collected from the Georgia Department of Transportation and the Atlanta Regional Commission. Noise level simulation was performed with 62 computers in a distributed computing environment. Finally, the noise-exposed population was calculated using geographic information system techniques. Results show that 48% of the total county population [N=870,166 residents] is potentially exposed to 55 dB(A) or higher noise levels during daytime. About 9% of the population is potentially exposed to 67 dB(A) or higher noises. At nighttime, 32% of the population is expected to be exposed to noise levels higher than 50 dB(A). This research shows that large-scale traffic noise estimation is possible with the help of various organizations. We believe that this research is a significant stepping stone for analyzing community health associated with noise exposures in the United States.

  6. Estimated dietary dioxin exposure and breast cancer risk among women from the French E3N prospective cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danjou, Aurélie M N; Fervers, Béatrice; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Philip, Thierry; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Dossus, Laure

    2015-03-17

    Dioxins are environmental and persistent pollutants mostly emitted from combustion facilities (e.g. waste incinerators, metal and cement industries). Known to be endocrine disrupting chemicals, dioxins are suspected to increase breast cancer (BC) risk. Although diet is considered the primary source of dioxin exposure, no previous study has been published on dietary dioxin exposure in relation to BC risk. We aimed to assess dietary dioxin exposure among women from the E3N cohort and estimate BC risk associated with this exposure. The study included 63,830 women from the E3N cohort who completed a diet history questionnaire (DHQ) in 1993 and were followed until 2008. Dietary dioxin exposure was estimated by combining consumption data from the E3N DHQ and food dioxin contamination data from a French national monitoring program. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by Cox models adjusted for BC risk factors. Mean dietary dioxin exposure was estimated at 1.3 ± 0.4 pg/kg body weight (BW)/day. A 0.4 pg/kg BW/d increase in dioxin intake was not associated with overall BC risk (HR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.05). A significant decrease in risk of estrogen receptor negative (ER-)/progesterone receptor negative (PR-) tumors was observed among post-menopausal women in the upper quartile of estimated dioxin intake (HR for Q4 vs. Q1: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.45, 0.96; P for trend across quartiles = 0.0463). Overall, no association between estimated dietary dioxin exposure and BC risk was found among E3N women. Further studies should include both dietary and environmental exposures to determine whether low-dose dioxin exposure is associated with BC risk.

  7. Exposure estimation errors to nitrogen oxides on a population scale due to daytime activity away from home.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafran-Nathan, Rakefet; Yuval; Levy, Ilan; Broday, David M

    2017-02-15

    Accurate estimation of exposure to air pollution is necessary for assessing the impact of air pollution on the public health. Most environmental epidemiology studies assign the home address exposure to the study subjects. Here, we quantify the exposure estimation error at the population scale due to assigning it solely at the residence place. A cohort of most schoolchildren in Israel (~950,000), age 6-18, and a representative cohort of Israeli adults (~380,000), age 24-65, were used. For each subject the home and the work or school addresses were geocoded. Together, these two microenvironments account for the locations at which people are present during most of the weekdays. For each subject, we estimated ambient nitrogen oxide concentrations at the home and work or school addresses using two air quality models: a stationary land use regression model and a dynamic dispersion-like model. On average, accounting for the subjects' work or school address as well as for the daily pollutant variation reduced the estimation error of exposure to ambient NOx/NO2 by 5-10ppb, since daytime concentrations at work/school and at home can differ significantly. These results were consistent regardless which air quality model as used and even for subjects that work or study close to their home. Yet, due to their usually short commute, assigning schoolchildren exposure solely at their residential place seems to be a reasonable estimation. In contrast, since adults commute for longer distances, assigning exposure of adults only at the residential place has a lower correlation with the daily weighted exposure, resulting in larger exposure estimation errors. We show that exposure misclassification can result from not accounting for the subjects' time-location trajectories through the spatiotemporally varying pollutant concentrations field. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. The Influence of Study Species Selection on Estimates of Pesticide Exposure in Free-Ranging Birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Shannon L.; Vyas, Nimish B.; Christman, Mary C.

    2014-02-01

    Field studies of pesticide effects on birds often utilize indicator species with the purpose of extrapolating to other avian taxa. Little guidance exists for choosing indicator species to monitor the presence and/or effects of contaminants that are labile in the environment or body, but are acutely toxic, such as anticholinesterase (anti-ChE) insecticides. Use of an indicator species that does not represent maximum exposure and/or effects could lead to inaccurate risk estimates. Our objective was to test the relevance of a priori selection of indicator species for a study on pesticide exposure to birds inhabiting fruit orchards. We used total plasma ChE activity and ChE reactivation to describe the variability in anti-ChE pesticide exposure among avian species in two conventionally managed fruit orchards. Of seven species included in statistical analyses, the less common species, chipping sparrow ( Spizella passerina), showed the greatest percentage of exposed individuals and the greatest ChE depression, whereas the two most common species, American robins ( Turdus migratorius) and gray catbirds ( Dumatella carolinensis), did not show significant exposure. Due to their lower abundance, chipping sparrows would have been an unlikely choice for study. Our results show that selection of indicator species using traditionally accepted criteria such as abundance and ease of collection may not identify species that are at greatest risk. Our efforts also demonstrate the usefulness of conducting multiple-species pilot studies prior to initiating detailed studies on pesticide effects. A study such as ours can help focus research and resources on study species that are most appropriate.

  9. Estimated yield of double-strand breaks from internal exposure to tritium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jing

    2012-08-01

    Internal exposure to tritium may result in DNA lesions. Of those, DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) are believed to be important. However, experimental and computational data of DSBs induction by tritium are very limited. In this study, microdosimetric characteristics of uniformly distributed tritium were determined in dimensions of critical significance in DNA DSBs. Those characteristics were used to identify other particles comparable to tritium in terms of microscopic energy deposition. The yield of DSBs could be strongly dependent on biological systems and cellular environments. After reviewing theoretically predicted and experimentally determined DSB yields available in the literature for low-energy electrons and high-energy protons of comparable microdosimetric characteristics to tritium in the dimensions relevant to DSBs, it is estimated that the average DSB yields of 2.7 × 10(-11), 0.93 × 10(-11), 2.4 × 10(-11) and 1.6 × 10(-11) DSBs Gy(-1) Da(-1) could be reasonable estimates for tritium in plasmid DNAs, yeast cells, Chinese hamster V79 cells and human fibroblasts, respectively. If a biological system is not specified, the DSB yield from tritium exposure can be estimated as (2.3 ± 0.7) × 10(-11) DSBs Gy(-1) Da(-1), which is a simple average over experimentally determined yields of DSBs for low-energy electrons in various biological systems without considerations of variations caused by different techniques used and obvious differences among different biological systems where the DSB yield was measured.

  10. Estimation of hepatitis E virus transmission among pigs due to contact-exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwknegt, Martijn; Frankena, Klaas; Rutjes, Saskia A; Wellenberg, Gerard J; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; van der Poel, Wim H M; de Jong, Mart C M

    2008-01-01

    Locally acquired hepatitis E in humans from industrialized countries has been repeatedly suggested to originate from pigs. Pigs may serve as a reservoir of hepatitis E virus (HEV) for humans when a typical infected pig causes on average more than one newly infected pig, a property that is expressed by the basic reproduction ratio R(0). In this study, R(0) for HEV transmission among pigs was estimated from chains of one-to-one transmission experiments in two blocks of five chains each. Per chain, susceptible first-generation contact pigs were contact-exposed to intravenously inoculated pigs, subsequently susceptible second-generation contact pigs were contact-exposed to infected first-generation contact pigs, and lastly, susceptible third-generation contact pigs were contact-exposed to infected second-generation contact pigs. Thus, in the second and third link of the chain, HEV-transmission due to contact with a contact-infected pig was observed. Transmission of HEV was monitored by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) on individual faecal samples taken every two/three days. For susceptible pigs, the average period between exposure to an infectious pig and HEV excretion was six days (standard deviation: 4). The length of HEV-excretion (i.e. infectious period) was estimated at 49 days (95% confidence interval (CI): 17-141) for block 1 and 13 days (95% CI: 11-17) for block 2. The R0 for contact-exposure was estimated to be 8.8 (95% CI: 4-19), showing the potential of HEV to cause epidemics in populations of pigs.

  11. Evaluation of observation-fused regional air quality model results for population air pollution exposure estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Gang; Li, Jingyi; Ying, Qi; Sherman, Seth; Perkins, Neil; Rajeshwari, Sundaram; Mendola, Pauline

    2014-07-01

    In this study, Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to predict ambient gaseous and particulate concentrations during 2001 to 2010 in 15 hospital referral regions (HRRs) using a 36-km horizontal resolution domain. An inverse distance weighting based method was applied to produce exposure estimates based on observation-fused regional pollutant concentration fields using the differences between observations and predictions at grid cells where air quality monitors were located. Although the raw CMAQ model is capable of producing satisfying results for O3 and PM2.5 based on EPA guidelines, using the observation data fusing technique to correct CMAQ predictions leads to significant improvement of model performance for all gaseous and particulate pollutants. Regional average concentrations were calculated using five different methods: 1) inverse distance weighting of observation data alone, 2) raw CMAQ results, 3) observation-fused CMAQ results, 4) population-averaged raw CMAQ results and 5) population-averaged fused CMAQ results. It shows that while O3 (as well as NOx) monitoring networks in the HRRs are dense enough to provide consistent regional average exposure estimation based on monitoring data alone, PM2.5 observation sites (as well as monitors for CO, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 components) are usually sparse and the difference between the average concentrations estimated by the inverse distance interpolated observations, raw CMAQ and fused CMAQ results can be significantly different. Population-weighted average should be used to account for spatial variation in pollutant concentration and population density. Using raw CMAQ results or observations alone might lead to significant biases in health outcome analyses.

  12. Evaluation of Observation-Fused Regional Air Quality Model Results for Population Air Pollution Exposure Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Gang; Li, Jingyi; Ying, Qi; Sherman, Seth; Perkins, Neil; Rajeshwari, Sundaram; Mendola, Pauline

    2014-01-01

    In this study, Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to predict ambient gaseous and particulate concentrations during 2001 to 2010 in 15 hospital referral regions (HRRs) using a 36-km horizontal resolution domain. An inverse distance weighting based method was applied to produce exposure estimates based on observation-fused regional pollutant concentration fields using the differences between observations and predictions at grid cells where air quality monitors were located. Although the raw CMAQ model is capable of producing satisfying results for O3 and PM2.5 based on EPA guidelines, using the observation data fusing technique to correct CMAQ predictions leads to significant improvement of model performance for all gaseous and particulate pollutants. Regional average concentrations were calculated using five different methods: 1) inverse distance weighting of observation data alone, 2) raw CMAQ results, 3) observation-fused CMAQ results, 4) population-averaged raw CMAQ results and 5) population-averaged fused CMAQ results. It shows that while O3 (as well as NOx) monitoring networks in the HRR regions are dense enough to provide consistent regional average exposure estimation based on monitoring data alone, PM2.5 observation sites (as well as monitors for CO, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 components) are usually sparse and the difference between the average concentrations estimated by the inverse distance interpolated observations, raw CMAQ and fused CMAQ results can be significantly different. Population-weighted average should be used to account spatial variation in pollutant concentration and population density. Using raw CMAQ results or observations alone might lead to significant biases in health outcome analyses. PMID:24747248

  13. Development of the town data base: Estimates of exposure rates and times of fallout arrival near the Nevada Test Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, C.B.; McArthur, R.D. [Univ. and Community College System of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Hutchinson, S.W. [Mead Johnson Nutritional Group, Evansville, IN (United States)

    1994-09-01

    As part of the U.S. Department of Energy`s Off-Site Radiation Exposure Review Project, the time of fallout arrival and the H+12 exposure rate were estimated for populated locations in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah that were affected by fallout from one or more nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site. Estimates of exposure rate were derived from measured values recorded before and after each test by fallout monitors in the field. The estimate for a given location was obtained by retrieving from a data base all measurements made in the vicinity, decay-correcting them to H+12, and calculating an average. Estimates were also derived from maps produced after most events that show isopleths of exposure rate and time of fallout arrival. Both sets of isopleths on these maps were digitized, and kriging was used to interpolate values at the nodes of a 10-km grid covering the pattern. The values at any location within the grid were then estimated from the values at the surrounding grid nodes. Estimates of dispersion (standard deviation) were also calculated. The Town Data Base contains the estimates for all combinations of location and nuclear event for which the estimated mean H+12 exposure rate was greater than three times background. A listing of the data base is included as an appendix. The information was used by other project task groups to estimate the radiation dose that off-site populations and individuals may have received as a result of exposure to fallout from Nevada nuclear tests.

  14. 基于四阶累积量的共形阵列波达方向估计算法%DOA estimation algorithm for conformal array based on fourth-order cumulants

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    齐子森; 郭英; 王布宏; 王永良

    2011-01-01

    The estimation of the source polarization always accompanied with the direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation because of the polarization diversity of conformal array manifold. A blind DOA estimation method with polarization diversity is proposed in this paper taking account of the characteristic of conformal array antenna DOA estimation when the incident signals are assumed to be statistically independent non-Gaussian narrowband random processes. It is shown how the extended-array due to fourth-order cumulants of the array outputs and estimation of signal parameters via rotational invariance techniques (ESPRIT) algorithm to decouple the DOA and signal polarization parameters. The proposed method achieves high-resolution 2D DOA estimation without no source polarization and the element pattern. The new method has widely applications in a variety of conformal carriers such as cylindrical, conical and spherical carriers. The procedure is given and the mechanism is derived by taking cylindrical conformal array antenna as an example. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.%由于共形天线阵列流形的多极化特性(PolarizationDiversity),共形阵列天线的信源方位估计需要与信源的极化状态联合进行。分析总结共形阵列天线波达方向(DOA)估计特点的基础上,针对窄带远场非高斯独立信源,提出了一种共形阵列天线盲极化DOA估计算法。该算法利用四阶累积量对阵列口径的扩展性,结合旋转不变子空间(ESPRIT)算法,在信源极化状态未知条件下实现了共形阵列天线的高分辨DOA估计。所提算法的方位估计不需要天线单元方向图以及信源极化状态的任何信息,适用于多种常用共形载体(锥面、柱面以及球面共形载体),具有较为广泛的应用环境。以柱面共形阵列天线DoA估计为例,详细推导了算法机理,给出了算

  15. Low-cost extrapolation method for maximal LTE radio base station exposure estimation: test and validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verloock, Leen; Joseph, Wout; Gati, Azeddine; Varsier, Nadège; Flach, Björn; Wiart, Joe; Martens, Luc

    2013-06-01

    An experimental validation of a low-cost method for extrapolation and estimation of the maximal electromagnetic-field exposure from long-term evolution (LTE) radio base station installations are presented. No knowledge on downlink band occupation or service characteristics is required for the low-cost method. The method is applicable in situ. It only requires a basic spectrum analyser with appropriate field probes without the need of expensive dedicated LTE decoders. The method is validated both in laboratory and in situ, for a single-input single-output antenna LTE system and a 2×2 multiple-input multiple-output system, with low deviations in comparison with signals measured using dedicated LTE decoders.

  16. Estimation of health effects of prenatal methylmercury exposure using structural equation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben; Keiding, Niels; Grandjean, Philippe

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Observational studies in epidemiology always involve concerns regarding validity, especially measurement error, confounding, missing data, and other problems that may affect the study outcomes. Widely used standard statistical techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, may...... to some extent adjust for these shortcomings. However, structural equations may incorporate most of these considerations, thereby providing overall adjusted estimations of associations. This approach was used in a large epidemiological data set from a prospective study of developmental methyl......-mercury toxicity. RESULTS: Structural equation models were developed for assessment of the association between biomarkers of prenatal mercury exposure and neuropsychological test scores in 7 year old children. Eleven neurobehavioral outcomes were grouped into motor function and verbally mediated function...

  17. Comparative analysis of spatio-temporal exposure assessment methods for estimating odor-related responses in non-urban populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantuaria, Manuella Lech; Løfstrøm, Per; Blanes-Vidal, Victoria

    2017-12-15

    The assessment of air pollution exposures in epidemiological studies does not always account for spatio-temporal variability of pollutants concentrations. In the case of odor studies, a common approach is to use yearly averaged odorant exposure estimates with low spatial resolution, which may not capture the spatio-temporal variability of emissions and therefore distort the epidemiological results. This study explores the use of different exposure assessment methods for time-variant ammonia exposures with high spatial resolution, in rural communities exposed to odors from agricultural and livestock farming activities. Exposure estimations were based on monthly ammonia concentrations from emission-dispersion models. Seven time-dependent residential NH3 exposures variables were investigated: 1) Annual mean of NH3 exposures; 2) Maximum annual NH3 exposure; 3) Area under the exposure curve; 4) Peak area; 5) Peak-to-mean ratio; 6) Area above the baseline (annual mean of NH3 exposures); and 7) Maximum positive slope of the exposure curve. We developed binomial and multinomial logistic regression models for frequency of odor perception and odor annoyance responses based on each temporal exposure variable. Odor responses estimates, goodness of fit and predictive abilities derived from each model were compared. All time-dependent NH3 exposure variables, except peak-to-mean ratio, were positively associated with odor perception and odor annoyance, although the results differ considerably in terms of magnitude and precision. The best goodness of fit of the predictive binomial models was obtained when using maximum monthly NH3 exposure as exposure assessment variable, both for odor perception and annoyance. The best predictive performance for odor perception was found when annual mean was used as exposure variable (accuracy=71.82%, Cohen's Kappa=0.298) whereas odor annoyance was better predicted when using peak area (accuracy=68.07%, Cohen's Kappa=0.290). Our study highlights

  18. Sampling private wells at past homes to estimate arsenic exposure: a methodologic study in New England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colt, Joanne S; Baris, Dalsu; Clark, Stewart F; Ayotte, Joseph D; Ward, Mary; Nuckols, John R; Cantor, Kenneth P; Silverman, Debra T; Karagas, Margaret

    2002-09-01

    We are conducting a collaborative, population-based case-control study in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont to investigate the reasons for the elevated bladder cancer mortality in northern New England. Arsenic in drinking water is one of the primary exposures under investigation. To estimate subjects' lifetime exposure to waterborne arsenic, it will be necessary to obtain water samples from private wells that subjects used in the past. We conducted a methodologic study to assess the feasibility of locating and sampling from private wells at subjects' past residences. Ninety-eight New Hampshire residents (mean age 67 years) completed a questionnaire requesting the complete address, dates of occupancy, and drinking water sources for each home lived in since birth. An interviewer then asked subjects for more detailed information about each home to assist in a field search of past homes in the three-state study area of Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Fifty-eight of the 98 subjects indicated that they had used a total of 103 private wells in 95 previous homes located in these three states. We conducted a field search to locate these 95 homes, visited town offices to find the properties on tax maps and obtain the current owners' names and addresses, attempted to obtain permission from the current owners to sample the wells, and collected water samples. In all, 48 (47%) of the 103 past wells in the study area were sampled successfully. The remaining wells were not sampled because the homes were not located (22%) or had been demolished (2%), permission to sample the wells was not obtained (17%), the wells had been destroyed (7%) or could not be found on the grounds of the residence (3%), or for other reasons (2%). Various approaches for improving the success rates for sampling water from private wells are discussed, as is the use of predictive modeling to impute exposures when sampling is not feasible.

  19. Digital image analysis of cigarette filter staining to estimate smoke exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Richard J; Kozlowski, Lynn T; Hammond, David; Vance, Tammy T; Stitt, Joseph P; Cummings, K Michael

    2007-08-01

    Sufficient variation exists in how people smoke each cigarette that the number of cigarettes smoked daily and the years of smoking represent only crude measures of exposure to the toxins in tobacco smoke. Previous research has shown that spent cigarette filters can provide information about how individuals smoke cigarettes. Digital image analysis has been used to identify filter vent blocking and may also provide an inexpensive, unobtrusive index of overall smoke exposure. A total of 1,124 cigarette butts smoked by 53 participants in a smoking topography study were imaged and analyzed. Imaging showed test-retest reliability of more than 95% among those smoking their own brand. Mean color scores (CIELAB system) showed acceptable stability (>.60) across days, paralleling the basic stability of smoking topography measures across waves. A principal components scoring showed that center tar staining, edge tar staining, and their interaction were significantly related to total smoke volume, accounting for 73% of the variation. Estimated smoke volume was a significant predictor of salivary cotinine when accounting for cigarettes smoked per day. These data suggest that digital image analysis of spent cigarette butts can serve as a reliable proxy measure of total smoke volume.

  20. Risky exposures and national estimate of HCV seroprevalence among school children in urban Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abd El-Wahab, Ekram W; Abdel Maksoud, Ahmed; Shatat, Hanan Z; Kotkat, Amira M

    2016-12-01

    Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality all over the world, particularly in Egypt. Limited data are available concerning the national seroprevalence and the possible modes of transmission of HCV in the pediatric age group. The aim of this study was to obtain a better estimate of the national hepatitis C seroprevalence and the possible risky exposures among healthy school children in Alexandria; the second biggest city in Egypt. HCV knowledge and counseling for school children were also investigated. A total of 500 school children, age between 6 and 15 years were evaluated for HCV seropositivity and interviewed for potential disease risk factors. The seropositivity for Anti-HCV Ab was 2.8 %. About 71.4 % of seropositive children were 10-15 years old. Urban residence, chronic disease, male circumcision and invasive procedures were detected as significant risk factors for acquiring HCV infection among the studied children. The level of awareness of hepatitis C among school children was very low (3.6 %) and was correlated with the age and educational level. HCV infection continues to occur in children and is frequently unrecognized. This mandates immediate intervention and robust control strategies in the settings of exposure combined with health education programs to limit further HCV spread.

  1. Application of ultraviolet spectrophotometry to estimate occupational exposure to airborne polyaromatic compounds in asphalt pavers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buratti, Marina; Campo, Laura; Fustinoni, Silvia; Valla, Carla; Martinotti, Irene; Cirla, Piero E; Cavallo, Domenico; Foà, Vito

    2007-06-01

    An ultraviolet (UV) spectrophotometric procedure was devised for the determination of polycyclic aromatic compound-oriented organic soluble matter in vapors and particulate collected from emissions of hot asphalt mix. Ultrasonic extraction was carried out with acetonitrile, followed by UV measurements at 254 nm. Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in volatile and particulate fraction were quantified as phenanthrene or benzo[k]fluoranthene equivalents. A comparison between UV and high-pressure liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection showed that PACs were one to three orders of magnitude higher than the sum of 15 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs); still, significant correlations were found between volatile or particulate PACs and, respectively, total volatile or particulate PAHs. Moreover, in the particulate phase, PACs correlated with total particulate matter quantified by gravimetry. The proposed procedure was employed in a field study for monitoring personal exposure to asphalt emissions of workers engaged in road construction. Observed levels of acetonitrile-soluble PACs in air samples were very low (2-20 microg/m3); however, asphalt pavers were exposed to significantly higher concentrations of volatile PACs than construction workers (geometric mean, 5.9 microg/m3 vs. 4.1 microg/m3). This method for estimating the global content of volatile or particulate PACs in air samples satisfies our requirements of simplicity and is suitable for conducting an initial screening to assess exposure to airborne polyaromatic organics in asphalt pavers.

  2. Estimates of the occupational exposure to tenorm in the phosphoric acid production plant in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathabadi, N; Vasheghani Farahani, M; Moradi, M; Hadadi, B

    2012-09-01

    Phosphate rock is used world wide for manufacturing phosphoric acid and several chemical fertilisers. It is known that the phosphate rock contains various concentrations of uranium, thorium, radium and their daughters. The subject of this study is the evaluation of the radiation exposure to workers in the phosphoric acid production plant due to technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials that can result from the presence of naturally occurring radioactive materials in phosphate ores used in the manufacturing of phosphoric acid. Radiation exposure due to direct gamma radiation, dust inhalation and radon gas has been investigated and external and internal doses of exposed workers have been calculated. Natural radioactivity due to (40)K, (226)Ra and (232)Th have been measured in phosphate rock, phosphogypsum, chemical fertilisers and other samples by gamma spectrometry system with a high-purity germanium. The average concentrations of (226)Ra and (40)K observed in the phosphate rock are 760 and 80 Bq kg(-1), respectively. Annual effective dose from external radiation had a mean value of ∼0.673 mSv y(-1). Dust sampling revealed greatest values in the storage area. The annual average effective dose from inhalation of long-lived airborne was 0.113 mSv y(-1). Radon gas concentrations in the processing plant and storage area were found to be of the same value as the background. In this study the estimated annual effective doses to workers were below 1 mSv y(-1).

  3. Radon exposure of the skin: II. Estimation of the attributable risk for skin cancer incidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charles, M W [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT (United Kingdom)

    2007-09-15

    A preceding companion paper has reviewed the various factors which form the chain of assumptions that are necessary to support a suggested link between radon exposure and skin cancer in man. Overall, the balance of evidence was considered to be against a causal link between radon exposure and skin cancer. One factor against causality is evidence, particularly from animal studies, that some exposure of the hair follicles and/or the deeper dermis, as well as the inter-follicular epidermis, is required-beyond the range of naturally occurring alpha particles. On this basis any skin cancer risk due to radon progeny would be due only to beta and gamma components of equivalent dose, which are 10-100 times less than the alpha equivalent dose to the basal layer. Notwithstanding this conclusion against causality, calculations have been carried out of attributable risk (ATR, the proportion of cases occurring in the total population which can be explained by radon exposure) on the conservative basis that the target cells are, as is often assumed, in the basal layer of the epidermis. An excess relative risk figure is used which is based on variance weighting of the data sources. This is 2.5 times lower than the value generally used. A latent period of 20 years and an RBE of 10 are considered more justifiable than the often used values of 10 years and 20 respectively. These assumptions lead to an ATR of {approx}0.7% (0.5-5%) at the nominal UK indoor radon level of 20 Bq m{sup -3}. The range reflects uncertainties in plate-out. Previous higher estimates by various authors have made more pessimistic assumptions. There are some indications that radon progeny plate-out may be elevated out of doors, particularly due to rainfall. Although average UK outdoor radon levels ({approx}4 Bq m{sup -3}) are much less than average indoor levels, and outdoor residence time is on average about 10%, this might have the effect of increasing the ATR several-fold. This needs considerable further

  4. Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

  5. Point: clarifying policy evidence with potential-outcomes thinking--beyond exposure-response estimation in air pollution epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zigler, Corwin Matthew; Dominici, Francesca

    2014-12-15

    The regulatory environment surrounding policies to control air pollution warrants a new type of epidemiologic evidence. Whereas air pollution epidemiology has typically informed policies with estimates of exposure-response relationships between pollution and health outcomes, these estimates alone cannot support current debates surrounding the actual health effects of air quality regulations. We argue that directly evaluating specific control strategies is distinct from estimating exposure-response relationships and that increased emphasis on estimating effects of well-defined regulatory interventions would enhance the evidence that supports policy decisions. Appealing to similar calls for accountability assessment of whether regulatory actions impact health outcomes, we aim to sharpen the analytic distinctions between studies that directly evaluate policies and those that estimate exposure-response relationships, with particular focus on perspectives for causal inference. Our goal is not to review specific methodologies or studies, nor is it to extoll the advantages of "causal" versus "associational" evidence. Rather, we argue that potential-outcomes perspectives can elevate current policy debates with more direct evidence of the extent to which complex regulatory interventions affect health. Augmenting the existing body of exposure-response estimates with rigorous evidence of the causal effects of well-defined actions will ensure that the highest-level epidemiologic evidence continues to support regulatory policies.

  6. Spatial variations in estimated chronic exposure to traffic-related air pollution in working populations: A simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cloutier-Fisher Denise

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chronic exposure to traffic-related air pollution is associated with a variety of health impacts in adults and recent studies show that exposure varies spatially, with some residents in a community more exposed than others. A spatial exposure simulation model (SESM which incorporates six microenvironments (home indoor, work indoor, other indoor, outdoor, in-vehicle to work and in-vehicle other is described and used to explore spatial variability in estimates of exposure to traffic-related nitrogen dioxide (not including indoor sources for working people. The study models spatial variability in estimated exposure aggregated at the census tracts level for 382 census tracts in the Greater Vancouver Regional District of British Columbia, Canada. Summary statistics relating to the distributions of the estimated exposures are compared visually through mapping. Observed variations are explored through analyses of model inputs. Results Two sources of spatial variability in exposure to traffic-related nitrogen dioxide were identified. Median estimates of total exposure ranged from 8 μg/m3 to 35 μg/m3 of annual average hourly NO2 for workers in different census tracts in the study area. Exposure estimates are highest where ambient pollution levels are highest. This reflects the regional gradient of pollution in the study area and the relatively high percentage of time spent at home locations. However, for workers within the same census tract, variations were observed in the partial exposure estimates associated with time spent outside the residential census tract. Simulation modeling shows that some workers may have exposures 1.3 times higher than other workers residing in the same census tract because of time spent away from the residential census tract, and that time spent in work census tracts contributes most to the differences in exposure. Exposure estimates associated with the activity of commuting by vehicle to work were

  7. Biological dose estimation for accidental supra-high dose gamma-ray exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Y., E-mail: yingchen29@yahoo.com.cn [Department of Radiation Toxicology and Oncology, Beijing Institute of Radiation Medicine, 27 Taiping Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100850 (China); Yan, X.K. [Department of Radiation Toxicology and Oncology, Beijing Institute of Radiation Medicine, 27 Taiping Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100850 (China); Department of Radiation Safety, Beijing Institute of Nuclear and Chemical Safety, 14 Guan-cun, Dongcheng District, Beijing 100077 (China); Du, J.; Wang, Z.D.; Zhang, X.Q.; Zeng, F.G.; Zhou, P.K. [Department of Radiation Toxicology and Oncology, Beijing Institute of Radiation Medicine, 27 Taiping Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100850 (China)

    2011-09-15

    To correctly estimate the biological dose of victims accidentally exposed to a very high dose of {sup 60}Co gamma-ray, a new dose-effect curve of chromosomal dicentrics/multicentrics and rings in the supra-high dose range was established. Peripheral blood from two healthy men was irradiated in vitro with doses of {sup 60}Co gamma-rays ranging from 6 to 22 Gy at a dose rate of 2.0 Gy/min. Lymphocytes were concentrated, cultured and harvested at 52 h, 68 h and 72 h. The numbers of dic + r were counted. The dose-effect curves were established and validated using comparisons with doses from the Tokai-mura accident and were then applied to two victims of supra-high dose exposure accident. The results indicated that there were no significant differences in chromosome aberration frequency among the different culture times from 52 h to 72 h. The 6-22 Gy dose-effect curve was fitted to a linear quadratic model Y = -2.269 + 0.776D - 7.868 x l0{sup -3}D{sup 2}. Using this mathematic model, the dose estimates were similar to data from Tokai-mura which were estimated by PCC ring. Whole body average doses of 9.7 Gy and 18.1 Gy for two victims in the Jining accident were satisfactorily given. We established and successfully applied a new dose-effect curve of chromosomal dicentrics plus ring (dic + r) after 6-22 Gy {gamma}-irradiation from a supra-high dose {sup 60}Co gamma-ray accident.

  8. [Estimation of the excess of lung cancer mortality risk associated to environmental tobacco smoke exposure of hospitality workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, M José; Nebot, Manel; Juárez, Olga; Ariza, Carles; Salles, Joan; Serrahima, Eulàlia

    2006-01-14

    To estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with environmental tobacco (ETS) smoke exposure among hospitality workers. The estimation was done using objective measures in several hospitality settings in Barcelona. Vapour phase nicotine was measured in several hospitality settings. These measurements were used to estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure for a 40 year working life, using the formula developed by Repace and Lowrey. Excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure was higher than 145 deaths per 100,000 workers in all places studied, except for cafeterias in hospitals, where excess lung cancer mortality risk was 22 per 100,000. In discoteques, for comparison, excess lung cancer mortality risk is 1,733 deaths per 100,000 workers. Hospitality workers are exposed to ETS levels related to a very high excess lung cancer mortality risk. These data confirm that ETS control measures are needed to protect hospital workers.

  9. EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

  10. Estimate of dietary exposure to sulphites in child and adult populations in the Basque Country.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urtiaga, Carmen; Amiano, Pilar; Azpiri, Mikel; Alonso, Ana; Dorronsoro, Miren

    2013-01-01

    Sulphites are widely used as a preservative and antioxidant additive in food. The aim of this study was to assess dietary sulphite intake in adults aged 35-65 years and in children aged 4-18 years living in the Basque Country, northern Spain. We determined sulphite concentrations in 909 samples covering 16 food types. The maximum permitted levels were exceeded in 17% of samples. Making recommended assumptions for non-quantifiable results, estimates of mean lower and upper bounds were calculated for sulphite concentrations in each food type. These sulphite data were combined with consumption data derived from 8417 adults from the European Prospective Investigation in Cancer and Nutrition cohort in Gipuzkoa, recruited in 1992-1995 using a diet history method, and 1055 children from the Basque Country Nutrition Children Survey, conducted in 2004-2005 using two 24-h recall questionnaires to assess diet. The results were compared with the acceptable daily intake (ADI) proposed by the Joint Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA). The mean dietary exposure to sulphites was 0.08 mg kg⁻¹ bw day⁻¹, only 11% of the ADI in the overall group of children (4-18 years old), but the acceptable intake was exceeded by 4% of 4-6 year olds. For the adults (35-65 years old), the mean dietary exposure was 0.31 mg kg⁻¹ bw day⁻¹, 45% of the ADI, but the acceptable intake was exceeded in 14.6% of cases. The major contributing foods were minced meat and other meat products for children and wine for adults.

  11. Uncertainty in the Himalayan energy-water nexus: estimating regional exposure to glacial lake outburst floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Worni, Raphael; Huggel, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Korup, Oliver

    2016-07-01

    Himalayan water resources attract a rapidly growing number of hydroelectric power projects (HPP) to satisfy Asia’s soaring energy demands. Yet HPP operating or planned in steep, glacier-fed mountain rivers face hazards of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that can damage hydropower infrastructure, alter water and sediment yields, and compromise livelihoods downstream. Detailed appraisals of such GLOF hazards are limited to case studies, however, and a more comprehensive, systematic analysis remains elusive. To this end we estimate the regional exposure of 257 Himalayan HPP to GLOFs, using a flood-wave propagation model fed by Monte Carlo-derived outburst volumes of >2300 glacial lakes. We interpret the spread of thus modeled peak discharges as a predictive uncertainty that arises mainly from outburst volumes and dam-breach rates that are difficult to assess before dams fail. With 66% of sampled HPP are on potential GLOF tracks, up to one third of these HPP could experience GLOF discharges well above local design floods, as hydropower development continues to seek higher sites closer to glacial lakes. We compute that this systematic push of HPP into headwaters effectively doubles the uncertainty about GLOF peak discharge in these locations. Peak discharges farther downstream, in contrast, are easier to predict because GLOF waves attenuate rapidly. Considering this systematic pattern of regional GLOF exposure might aid the site selection of future Himalayan HPP. Our method can augment, and help to regularly update, current hazard assessments, given that global warming is likely changing the number and size of Himalayan meltwater lakes.

  12. Estimating Fluoride Exposure in Rural Communities: A Case Study in Western Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Janessa M.; Daniell, William; James, Frank; Milgrom, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Purpose Efforts to achieve national objectives for fluoridation, such as Healthy People 2010, and water quality monitoring regulations focus on public water systems and generally overlook the 15% of U.S. households with private wells. Mandated testing of public water systems and new building sites on San Juan Island, Washington revealed naturally occurring fluoride levels up to several times the EPA Maximum Contaminant Level. This study evaluated fluoride concentrations in private wells and estimated the prevalence of dental fluorosis among children to inform local stakeholders. Methods Primary school children were examined by a dentist for dental fluorosis, parents were surveyed about fluoride exposures, and household drinking water samples were collected to measure and map fluoride concentrations. De-identified data were analyzed using chi-square and Fisher’s exact tests. Results 18.8% of examined children exhibited mild dental fluorosis, a prevalence similar to national averages. Fluoride concentrations in drinking water were 0.08 to 1.30 mg/L, below levels for health concerns, and generally (94%) below levels recommended for caries prevention. Supplemental sources of fluoride (e.g. tablets) did not account for observed fluorosis. Conclusions Results provided community stakeholders with valuable information to support decision-making regarding fluoride levels in drinking water. Previously available information suggested potential for excessive fluoride exposure, however, these study results indicated low fluoride levels were more common. The approach used in this case study suggests a simple method of assessing the scope of fluoridation needs in communities where private water sources are common, allowing for better informed decision-making with regard to future fluoridation efforts. PMID:20617156

  13. Measurement errors in the assessment of exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation and its impact on risk estimates in epidemiological studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadvand, Payam; Basagaña, Xavier; Barrera-Gómez, Jose; Diffey, Brian; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark

    2011-07-01

    To date, many studies addressing long-term effects of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure on human health have relied on a range of surrogates such as the latitude of the city of residence, ambient UVR levels, or time spent outdoors to estimate personal UVR exposure. This study aimed to differentiate the contributions of personal behaviour and ambient UVR levels on facial UVR exposure and to evaluate the impact of using UVR exposure surrogates on detecting exposure-outcome associations. Data on time-activity, holiday behaviour, and ambient UVR levels were obtained for adult (aged 25-55 years old) indoor workers in six European cities: Athens (37°N), Grenoble (45°N), Milan (45°N), Prague (50°N), Oxford (52°N), and Helsinki (60°N). Annual UVR facial exposure levels were simulated for 10,000 subjects for each city, using a behavioural UVR exposure model. Within-city variations of facial UVR exposure were three times larger than the variation between cities, mainly because of time-activity patterns. In univariate models, ambient UVR levels, latitude and time spent outdoors, each accounted for less than one fourth of the variation in facial exposure levels. Use of these surrogates to assess long-term exposure to UVR resulted in requiring more than four times more participants to achieve similar statistical power to the study that applied simulated facial exposure. Our results emphasise the importance of integrating both personal behaviour and ambient UVR levels/latitude in exposure assessment methodologies.

  14. Optimization of the cumulative risk assessment of pesticides and biocides using computational techniques: Pilot project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Svava Osk; Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Petersen, Annette

    This pilot project is intended as the first step in developing a computational strategy to assist in refining methods for higher tier cumulative and aggregate risk assessment of exposure to mixture of pesticides and biocides. For this purpose, physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models were...... developed for two compounds, tebuconazole and prochloraz, and a binary mixture of these compounds in two species, rat and human. PBTK models can be used to estimate the concentration levels (internal doses) of toxic substances and their metabolites in blood and tissue, by a collection of differential...... the models. Exposure scenarios were constructed based on findings of pesticide residues in food of ordinary consumers, and assessment of dermal exposure of professional workers. PBTK simulations were carried using these scenarios....

  15. Exploring the uncertainty associated with satellite-based estimates of premature mortality due to exposure to fine particulate matter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Bonne; Heald, Colette L.

    2016-03-01

    The negative impacts of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure on human health are a primary motivator for air quality research. However, estimates of the air pollution health burden vary considerably and strongly depend on the data sets and methodology. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) have been widely used to overcome limited coverage from surface monitoring and to assess the global population exposure to PM2.5 and the associated premature mortality. Here we quantify the uncertainty in determining the burden of disease using this approach, discuss different methods and data sets, and explain sources of discrepancies among values in the literature. For this purpose we primarily use the MODIS satellite observations in concert with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We contrast results in the United States and China for the years 2004-2011. Using the Burnett et al. (2014) integrated exposure response function, we estimate that in the United States, exposure to PM2.5 accounts for approximately 2 % of total deaths compared to 14 % in China (using satellite-based exposure), which falls within the range of previous estimates. The difference in estimated mortality burden based solely on a global model vs. that derived from satellite is approximately 14 % for the US and 2 % for China on a nationwide basis, although regionally the differences can be much greater. This difference is overshadowed by the uncertainty in the methodology for deriving PM2.5 burden from satellite observations, which we quantify to be on the order of 20 % due to uncertainties in the AOD-to-surface-PM2.5 relationship, 10 % due to the satellite observational uncertainty, and 30 % or greater uncertainty associated with the application of concentration response functions to estimated exposure.

  16. Methodological challenges when estimating the effects of season and seasonal exposures on birth outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tong Shilu

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many previous studies have found seasonal patterns in birth outcomes, but with little agreement about which season poses the highest risk. Some of the heterogeneity between studies may be explained by a previously unknown bias. The bias occurs in retrospective cohorts which include all births occurring within a fixed start and end date, which means shorter pregnancies are missed at the start of the study, and longer pregnancies are missed at the end. Our objective was to show the potential size of this bias and how to avoid it. Methods To demonstrate the bias we simulated a retrospective birth cohort with no seasonal pattern in gestation and used a range of cohort end dates. As a real example, we used a cohort of 114,063 singleton births in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009 and examined the bias when estimating changes in gestation length associated with season (using month of conception and a seasonal exposure (temperature. We used survival analyses with temperature as a time-dependent variable. Results We found strong artificial seasonal patterns in gestation length by month of conception, which depended on the end date of the study. The bias was avoided when the day and month of the start date was just before the day and month of the end date (regardless of year, so that the longer gestations at the start of the study were balanced by the shorter gestations at the end. After removing the fixed cohort bias there was a noticeable change in the effect of temperature on gestation length. The adjusted hazard ratios were flatter at the extremes of temperature but steeper between 15 and 25°C. Conclusions Studies using retrospective birth cohorts should account for the fixed cohort bias by removing selected births to get unbiased estimates of seasonal health effects.

  17. Dietary exposure estimation of benzo[a]pyrene and cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Byung Mu; Shim, Geun Ae

    2007-08-01

    Dietary benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) levels were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection (HPLC-FLD) in various foods (e.g., snack, potato chip, bread, vegetable oil, meat, cereal, etc.) to estimate dietary intake levels of BaP for the assessment of BaP related-cancer risk in Koreans. Higher levels of BaP were detected in fried chicken (5.25-5.55 BaP microg/kg) and smoked dried beef (5.47 microg/kg) compared to relatively lower levels measured in sesame oil (0.36 microg/kg) and peanut (0.44 microg/kg). The BaP levels in nonmeat items were generally low in detection, but certain potato chip products showed levels up to 4.06 BaP microg/kg. In terms of chronic daily intake of BaP, fried chicken was shown to be the highest (70.09 ng/person/d) and perilla oil was the lowest (0.05 ng/person/d). The total daily intake of BaP due to the consumption of various food items investigated was estimated to be 124.55 ng/person/d, based on daily food consumption and the contaminant level of BaP. The dietary BaP-related cancer risk using carcinogenic potency factor of BaP as 7.3E + 0 (mg/kg/d)(-1) was assessed to be 1.52 x 10(-5). These data suggest that cancer risk due to dietary exposure to BaP is of concern in Koreans and needs to be reduced either by regulatory efforts or by modifying food manufacturing procedures.

  18. GPS-based Microenvironment Tracker (MicroTrac) Model to Estimate Time-Location of Individuals for Air Pollution Exposure Assessments: Model Evaluation in Central North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure assessment is the estimation of the time spent by individuals in various microenvironments (ME). Accounting for the time spent in different ME with different pollutant concentrations can reduce exposure misclassifications, while failure...

  19. USE OF EXPOSURE RELATED DOSE ESTIMATING MODEL ( ERDEM ) TO CONSTRUCT A PBPK /MODEL FOR CARBOFURAN WITH THE REPORTED EXPERIMENTAL DATA IN THE RAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    To better understand the relationships among carbofuran exposure, dose, and effects, a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model was developed for the rat using the Exposure Related Dose Estimating Model (ERDEM) framework.

  20. GPS-based Microenvironment Tracker (MicroTrac) Model to Estimate Time-Location of Individuals for Air Pollution Exposure Assessments: Model Evaluation in Central North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure assessment is the estimation of the time spent by individuals in various microenvironments (ME). Accounting for the time spent in different ME with different pollutant concentrations can reduce exposure misclassifications, while failure...

  1. The University of Michigan Dioxin Exposure Study: estimating residential soil and house dust exposures to young children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paustenbach, Dennis J; Kerger, Brent D

    2013-04-01

    The University of Michigan Dioxin Exposure Study provides extensive data on elevated residential soil and house dust concentrations of polychlorinated dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and adult body burdens among residents near a chemical manufacturing plant in Midland, Michigan. Recent reports found no significant contribution of residential soil/dust concentrations to serum lipid PCDD/Fs in adults. Although child body burdens were not studied by the University of Michigan, internal dose modeling that incorporates recent findings on demonstrated shorter elimination half life of PCDD/Fs in children (1-2 year half life in children vs. ~7 years in older adults) can be applied to assess this important issue. The model examines children (ages 0-7 years) with background dietary intake and exposure to residential soils at selected concentrations (10, 100 and 1000 pg/g 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin toxic equivalents, TEQ) using the congener patterns observed in Midland. Model predictions assuming 50th percentile TEQ uptake from soil/dust-related dermal and ingestion exposures indicate no measurable changes in serum lipid TEQ concentrations up to 1000 pg/g in soil/dust. Assuming 95th percentile uptake, the model shows no measurable serum lipid TEQ change up to 100 pg/g in soil/dust, but serum lipid TEQ levels rose ~2 pg/g at 1000 pg/g in soil/dust. Since the vast majority of soil/dust data were below 100 pg/g, Michigan children exposed to such soil/dust TEQ concentrations are not reasonably expected to exhibit measurable changes in serum lipid TEQ concentrations when compared to typical background dietary exposures. With adequate data, this approach can be applied to evaluate child dose and risk for other persistent chemicals.

  2. Limitations and information needs for engineered nanomaterialspecific exposure estimation and scenarios: recommendations for improved reporting practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clark, K.; Tongeren, M. van; Christensen, F.; Brouwer, D.H.; Nowack, B.; Gottschalk, F.; Micheletti, C.; Schmid, K.; Gerritsen, R.; Aitken, R.; Vaquero, C.; Gkanis, V.; Housiadas, C.; López de Ipiña, J.M.; Riediker, M.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to describe the process and challenges in building exposure scenarios for engineered nanomaterials (ENM), using an exposure scenario format similar to that used for the European Chemicals regulation (REACH). Over 60 exposure scenarios were developed based on information from

  3. Can exposure to electromagnetic radiation in diathermy operators be estimated from interview data A pilot study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, A.I.; Skotte, J. (Central Hospital, Esbjerg (Denmark))

    1991-01-01

    As preparation for a case-control study dealing with possible teratogenic property of short waves, a pilot study was conducted in order to compare exposure assessment from different sources. In 11 physiotherapy clinics, exposure assessments based on interviews within 1 week among the exposed physiotherapists were compared with exposure assessments based on observations including measurements. It was possible to discriminate between recent high and low peak exposure. Furthermore, an interview index reflecting the duration of the exposure correlated to some extent with the corresponding measurements.

  4. Cultural and Demographic Factors Influencing Noise Exposure Estimates from Use of Portable Listening Devices in an Urban Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fligor, Brian J.; Levey, Sandra; Levey, Tania

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: This study examined listening levels and duration of portable listening devices (PLDs) used by people with diversity of ethnicity, education, music genre, and PLD manufacturer. The goal was to estimate participants' PLD noise exposure and identify factors influencing user behavior. Method: This study measured listening levels of 160…

  5. The diesel exhaust in miners study: IV. Estimating historical exposures to diesel exhaust in underground non-metal mining facilities.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, R.; Coble, J.B.; Lubin, J.H.; Portengen, L.; Blair, A.; Attfield, M.D.; Silverman, D.T.; Stewart, P.A.

    2010-01-01

    We developed quantitative estimates of historical exposures to respirable elemental carbon (REC) for an epidemiologic study of mortality, including lung cancer, among diesel-exposed miners at eight non-metal mining facilities [the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS)]. Because there were no histori

  6. Cultural and Demographic Factors Influencing Noise Exposure Estimates from Use of Portable Listening Devices in an Urban Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fligor, Brian J.; Levey, Sandra; Levey, Tania

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: This study examined listening levels and duration of portable listening devices (PLDs) used by people with diversity of ethnicity, education, music genre, and PLD manufacturer. The goal was to estimate participants' PLD noise exposure and identify factors influencing user behavior. Method: This study measured listening levels of 160…

  7. Constructing Predictive Estimates for Worker Exposure to Radioactivity During Decommissioning: Analysis of Completed Decommissioning Projects - Master Thesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dettmers, Dana Lee; Eide, Steven Arvid

    2002-10-01

    An analysis of completed decommissioning projects is used to construct predictive estimates for worker exposure to radioactivity during decommissioning activities. The preferred organizational method for the completed decommissioning project data is to divide the data by type of facility, whether decommissioning was performed on part of the facility or the complete facility, and the level of radiation within the facility prior to decommissioning (low, medium, or high). Additional data analysis shows that there is not a downward trend in worker exposure data over time. Also, the use of a standard estimate for worker exposure to radioactivity may be a best estimate for low complete storage, high partial storage, and medium reactor facilities; a conservative estimate for some low level of facility radiation facilities (reactor complete, research complete, pits/ponds, other), medium partial process facilities, and high complete research facilities; and an underestimate for the remaining facilities. Limited data are available to compare different decommissioning alternatives, so the available data are reported and no conclusions can been drawn. It is recommended that all DOE sites and the NRC use a similar method to document worker hours, worker exposure to radiation (person-rem), and standard industrial accidents, injuries, and deaths for all completed decommissioning activities.

  8. Individual exposure estimates may be erroneous when spatiotemporal variability of air pollution and human mobility are ignored.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Yoo Min; Kwan, Mei-Po

    2017-01-01

    This study aims to empirically demonstrate the necessity to consider both the spatiotemporal variability of air pollution and individual daily movement patterns in exposure and health risk assessment. It compares four different types of exposure estimates generated by using (1) individual movement data and hourly air pollution concentrations; (2) individual movement data and daily average air pollution data; (3) residential location and hourly pollution levels; and (4) residential location and daily average pollution data. These four estimates are significantly different, which supports the argument that ignoring the spatiotemporal variability of environmental risk factors and human mobility may lead to misleading results in exposure assessment. Additionally, three-dimensional (3D) geovisualization presented in the paper shows how person-specific space-time context is generated by the interactions between air pollution and an individual, and how the different individualized contexts place individuals at different levels of health risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Some Characterization Results on Dynamic Cumulative Residual Tsallis Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madan Mohan Sati

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a generalized cumulative residual information measure based on Tsallis entropy and its dynamic version. We study the characterizations of the proposed information measure and define new classes of life distributions based on this measure. Some applications are provided in relation to weighted and equilibrium probability models. Finally the empirical cumulative Tsallis entropy is proposed to estimate the new information measure.

  10. Acrylamide content in cigarette mainstream smoke and estimation of exposure to acrylamide from tobacco smoke in Poland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mojska, Hanna; Gielecińska, Iwona; Cendrowski, Andrzej

    2016-09-01

    Acrylamide is a "probably human carcinogen" monomer that can form in heated starchy food as a result of a reaction between asparagine and reducing sugars via Maillard reaction. The main source of acrylamide in human diet are potato products, cereal products and coffee. Tobacco smoke may be another significant source of exposure to acrylamide. The aim of our study was to determine acrylamide content in cigarettes available on the Polish market and to estimate the exposure to acrylamide originating from tobacco smoke in smokers in Poland. The material was cigarettes of the top five brands bought in Poland and tobacco from non-smoked cigarettes. Acrylamide content in cigarettes mainstream smoke was determined by LC-MS/MS. Exposure assessment was carried out using analytical data of acrylamide content in cigarettes and the mean quantity of cigarettes smoked daily by smokers in Poland, assuming body weight at 70 kg. The mean content of acrylamide was 679.3 ng/cigarette (range: 455.0 - 822.5 ng/cigarette). The content of acrylamide was evidenced to correlate positively with total particulate matter (TPM) content in cigarettes. The estimated average exposure to acrylamide from tobacco smoke in adult smokers in Poland is 0.17 μg/kg b.w./day. Our results demonstrate that tobacco smoke is a significant source of acrylamide and total exposure to acrylamide in the population of smokers, on average, is higher by more than 50% in comparison with non-smokers. Our estimation of exposure to acrylamide from tobacco smoke is the first estimation taking into account the actual determined acrylamide content in the cigarettes available on the market.

  11. Estimating population heat exposure and impacts on working people in conjunction with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Freyberg, Chris; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias; Briggs, David

    2017-08-01

    Increased environmental heat levels as a result of climate change present a major challenge to the health, wellbeing and sustainability of human communities in already hot parts of this planet. This challenge has many facets from direct clinical health effects of daily heat exposure to indirect effects related to poor air quality, poor access to safe drinking water, poor access to nutritious and safe food and inadequate protection from disease vectors and environmental toxic chemicals. The increasing environmental heat is a threat to environmental sustainability. In addition, social conditions can be undermined by the negative effects of increased heat on daily work and life activities and on local cultural practices. The methodology we describe can be used to produce quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on work activities in countries and local communities. We show in maps the increasing heat exposures in the shade expressed as the occupational heat stress index Wet Bulb Globe Temperature. Some tropical and sub-tropical areas already experience serious heat stress, and the continuing heating will substantially reduce work capacity and labour productivity in widening parts of the world. Southern parts of Europe and the USA will also be affected. Even the lowest target for climate change (average global temperature change = 1.5 °C at representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6) will increase the loss of daylight work hour output due to heat in many tropical areas from less than 2% now up to more than 6% at the end of the century. A global temperature change of 2.7 °C (at RCP6.0) will double this annual heat impact on work in such areas. Calculations of this type of heat impact at country level show that in the USA, the loss of work capacity in moderate level work in the shade will increase from 0.17% now to more than 1.3% at the end of the century based on the 2.7 °C temperature change. The impact is naturally mainly occurring in the southern

  12. Cause-specific premature death from ambient PM2.5 exposure in India: Estimate adjusted for baseline mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Sourangsu; Dey, Sagnik

    2016-05-01

    In India, more than a billion population is at risk of exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration exceeding World Health Organization air quality guideline, posing a serious threat to health. Cause-specific premature death from ambient PM2.5 exposure is poorly known for India. Here we develop a non-linear power law (NLP) function to estimate the relative risk associated with ambient PM2.5 exposure using satellite-based PM2.5 concentration (2001-2010) that is bias-corrected against coincident direct measurements. We show that estimate of annual premature death in India is lower by 14.7% (19.2%) using NLP (integrated exposure risk function, IER) for assumption of uniform baseline mortality across India (as considered in the global burden of disease study) relative to the estimate obtained by adjusting for state-specific baseline mortality using GDP as a proxy. 486,100 (811,000) annual premature death in India is estimated using NLP (IER) risk functions after baseline mortality adjustment. 54.5% of premature death estimated using NLP risk function is attributed to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), 24.0% to ischemic heart disease (IHD), 18.5% to stroke and the remaining 3.0% to lung cancer (LC). 44,900 (5900-173,300) less premature death is expected annually, if India achieves its present annual air quality target of 40μgm(-3). Our results identify the worst affected districts in terms of ambient PM2.5 exposure and resulting annual premature death and call for initiation of long-term measures through a systematic framework of pollution and health data archive.

  13. Exploring the uncertainty associated with satellite-based estimates of premature mortality due to exposure to fine particulate matter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Ford

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The negative impacts of fine particulate matter (PM2.5 exposure on human health are a primary motivator for air quality research. However, estimates of the air pollution health burden vary considerably and strongly depend on the datasets and methodology. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD have been widely used to overcome limited coverage from surface monitoring and to assess the global population exposure to PM2.5 and the associated premature mortality. Here we quantify the uncertainty in determining the burden of disease using this approach, discuss different methods and datasets, and explain sources of discrepancies among values in the literature. For this purpose we primarily use the MODIS satellite observations in concert with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We contrast results in the United States and China for the years 2004–2011. We estimate that in the United States, exposure to PM2.5 accounts for approximately 4 % of total deaths compared to 22 % in China (using satellite-based exposure, which falls within the range of previous estimates. The difference in estimated mortality burden based solely on a global model vs. that derived from satellite is approximately 9 % for the US and 4 % for China on a nationwide basis, although regionally the differences can be much greater. This difference is overshadowed by the uncertainty in the methodology for deriving PM2.5 burden from satellite observations, which we quantify to be on order of 20 % due to uncertainties in the AOD-to-surface-PM2.5 relationship, 10 % due to the satellite observational uncertainty, and 30 % or greater uncertainty associated with the application of concentration response functions to estimated exposure.

  14. Survey of furan in heat processed foods by headspace gas chromatography/mass spectrometry and estimated adult exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morehouse, Kim M; Nyman, Patricia J; McNeal, Timothy P; Dinovi, Michael J; Perfetti, Gracia A

    2008-03-01

    Furan is a suspected human carcinogen that is formed in some processed foods at low ng per g levels. Recent improvements in analytical methodology and scientific instrumentation have made it possible to accurately measure the amount of furan in a wide variety of foods. Results from analysis of more than 300 processed foods are presented. Furan was found at levels ranging from non-detectable (LOD, 0.2-0.9 ng g(-1)) to over 100 ng g(-1). Exposure estimates for several adult food types were calculated, with brewed coffee being the major source of furan in the adult diet (0.15 microg kg(-1) body weight day(-1)). Estimates of mean exposure to furan for different subpopulations were calculated. For consumers 2 years and older, the intake is estimated to be about 0.2 microg kg(-1) body weight day(-1).

  15. Concentrations of phthalates and bisphenol A in Norwegian foods and beverages and estimated dietary exposure in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakhi, Amrit K; Lillegaard, Inger Therese L; Voorspoels, Stefan; Carlsen, Monica H; Løken, Elin B; Brantsæter, Anne L; Haugen, Margaretha; Meltzer, Helle M; Thomsen, Cathrine

    2014-12-01

    Phthalates and bisphenol A (BPA) are ubiquitous in our environment. These chemicals have been characterized as endocrine disruptors that can cause functional impairment of development and reproduction. Processed and packaged foods are among the major sources of human exposure to these chemicals. No previous report showing the levels of these chemicals in food items purchased in Norway is available. The aim of the present study was to determine the concentration of ten different phthalates and BPA in foods and beverages purchased on the Norwegian market and estimate the daily dietary exposure in the Norwegian adult population. Commonly consumed foods and beverages in Norway were purchased in a grocery store and analysed using gas- and liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry. Daily dietary exposures to these chemicals in the Norwegian adult population were estimated using the latest National dietary survey, Norkost 3 (2010-2011). This study showed that phthalates and BPA are found in all foods and beverages that are common to consume in Norway. The detection frequency of phthalates in the food items varied from 11% for dicyclohexyl phthalate (DCHP) to 84% for di-iso-nonyl phthalate (DiNP), one of the substitutes for bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP). BPA was found in 54% of the food items analysed. Among the different phthalates, the highest concentrations were found for DEHP and DiNP in the food items. Estimated dietary exposures were also equally high and dominated by DEHP and DiNP (400-500 ng/kg body weight (bw)/day), followed by di-iso-butyl phthalate (DiBP), di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), di-n-octyl phthalate (DnOP) and di-iso-decyl phthalate (DiDP) (30-40 ng/kg bw/day). Dimethyl phthalate (DMP), diethylphthalate (DEP) and DCHP had the lowest concentrations and the exposures were around 10-20 ng/kg bw/day. Estimated dietary exposure to BPA was 5 ng/kg bw/day. In general, levels of phthalates and BPA in foods and beverages from the Norwegian market

  16. Is uveitis associated with topiramate use? A cumulative review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldberg JL

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Jeffrey L Goldberg,1 Amy G Lau,2 Bo Fan,2 Lisa Ford,3 Howard E Greenberg3 1Byers Eye Institute, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, 2Janssen Research & Development, LLC, Horsham, PA, 3Janssen Research & Development, LLC, Titusville, NJ, USA Abstract: Occasional reports of uveitis following topiramate use necessitated an investigation of relevant cases from safety databases and published biomedical literature. Data mining of the Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System and cumulative review of cases from the global safety database (sponsor database and published literature were conducted to assess association between topiramate use and uveitis. The Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System search identified disproportional reporting of uveitis (n=23 and related terms (choroidal detachment, n=25; iridocyclitis, n=17. The postmarketing reporting frequency of uveitis and related events from the global safety database and based on an estimated topiramate exposure of 11,185,740 person-years from launch to April 2015 was 0.38 per 100,000 person-years and assigned as very rare. A total of 14 potential uveitis cases were identified from the cumulative review. Seven of these 14 cases were complicated by inadequate documentation, appearance of uveitic signs following drug withdrawal, or concurrent use of other sulfonamides. In acute angle-closure glaucoma and uveal effusions cases, insufficient evidence for underlying inflammation suggested that uveitis was not a component. Only seven of 14 cases were well documented, potentially topiramate-associated uveitis cases. Uveitis may occur in the setting of topiramate use only in very rare instances. Current evidence did not reveal a dose- or duration-dependent relationship between uveitis and topiramate use. Keywords: topiramate, uveitis, acute angle-closure glaucoma, drug safety, Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System, postmarketing 

  17. Interindividual differences in hair uptake of air nicotine and significance of cigarette counting for estimation of environmental tobacco smoke exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahlsen, K; Nilsen, T; Nilsen, O G

    1996-10-01

    Hair from 80 male subjects, smokers and non-smokers, was exposed continuously in a dynamic exposure chamber to constant nicotine vapour concentrations of 20, 200 or 2000 micrograms/m3 for 72 hr. Subgroups of high and low nicotine adsorbing hair were also exposed intermittantly to environmental tobacco smoke for 8 months. Air and hair concentrations of nicotine were determined by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. The chamber experiments demonstrated a hair nicotine uptake which followed a second order relation to the applied concentrations of nicotine, y = -0.00018x2 + 0.715x + 1.13, r2 = 0.99999. The function and the experimental points showed linearity up to an air nicotine vapour concentration of about 200 micrograms/m+, covering the most relevant range of environmental exposure. An approximately 7- and 2-fold interindividual variation was observed in the hair uptake rate constant of nicotine vapour for the investigated material within the 10 to 90 and 25 to 75% percentiles, respectively. The factors causing this variation were not identified. It was shown that subject age, hair diameter and hair content of eumelanin were without correlation to the rate constants of hair nicotine uptake. The exposure of subgroups of hair to environmental tobacco smoke showed similar uptake profiles of nicotine as that experienced with exposure to pure nicotine vapour, supporting the relevance of controlled chamber nicotine vapour exposures as a relevant tool for the evaluation of hair nicotine uptake from a more complex environmental situation. Standardized measurements of air nicotine vapour and particulate concentrations in a modern office during 3 hr periodical smoking periods, showed that the number of cigarettes smoked was a poor indicator for the estimation of individual exposure to environmental tobacco smoke constituents. Hair nicotine measurements so far seem to be superior to other suggested methodologies for estimation of environmental tobacco smoke exposure, but

  18. Evaluating methods for estimating space-time paths of individuals in calculating long-term personal exposure to air pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, Oliver; Soenario, Ivan; Vaartjes, Ilonca; Strak, Maciek; Hoek, Gerard; Brunekreef, Bert; Dijst, Martin; Karssenberg, Derek

    2016-04-01

    Air pollution is one of the major concerns for human health. Associations between air pollution and health are often calculated using long-term (i.e. years to decades) information on personal exposure for each individual in a cohort. Personal exposure is the air pollution aggregated along the space-time path visited by an individual. As air pollution may vary considerably in space and time, for instance due to motorised traffic, the estimation of the spatio-temporal location of a persons' space-time path is important to identify the personal exposure. However, long term exposure is mostly calculated using the air pollution concentration at the x, y location of someone's home which does not consider that individuals are mobile (commuting, recreation, relocation). This assumption is often made as it is a major challenge to estimate space-time paths for all individuals in large cohorts, mostly because limited information on mobility of individuals is available. We address this issue by evaluating multiple approaches for the calculation of space-time paths, thereby estimating the personal exposure along these space-time paths with hyper resolution air pollution maps at national scale. This allows us to evaluate the effect of the space-time path and resulting personal exposure. Air pollution (e.g. NO2, PM10) was mapped for the entire Netherlands at a resolution of 5×5 m2 using the land use regression models developed in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE, http://escapeproject.eu/) and the open source software PCRaster (http://www.pcraster.eu). The models use predictor variables like population density, land use, and traffic related data sets, and are able to model spatial variation and within-city variability of annual average concentration values. We approximated space-time paths for all individuals in a cohort using various aggregations, including those representing space-time paths as the outline of a persons' home or associated parcel

  19. Elemental Speciation as an Essential Part of Formulating Exposure Assessments that Support Risk Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    The chemical form specific toxicity of arsenic has caused scientists to move toward species specific assessments with an emphasis on biological relevance of an exposure. For example, numerous studies on the occurrence of arsenic in rice have documented the exposure potential fro...

  20. Radiation exposure from diagnostic imaging among patients with gastrointestinal disorders.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Desmond, Alan N

    2012-03-01

    There are concerns about levels of radiation exposure among patients who undergo diagnostic imaging for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), compared with other gastrointestinal (GI) disorders. We quantified imaging studies and estimated the cumulative effective dose (CED) of radiation received by patients with organic and functional GI disorders. We also identified factors and diagnoses associated with high CEDs.

  1. Cumulative Risks of Foster Care Placement for Danish Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Although recent research suggests that the cumulative risk of foster care placement is far higher for American children than originally suspected, little is known about the cumulative risk of foster care placement in other countries, which makes it difficult to gauge the degree to which factor...... is for Danish children. Results suggest that at the beginning of the study period (in 1998) the cumulative risk of foster care placement for Danish children was roughly in line with the risk for American children. Yet, by the end of the study period (2010), the risk had declined to half the risk for American...... foster care placement is salient in other contexts. In this article, we provide companion estimates to those provided in recent work on the US by using Danish registry data and synthetic cohort life tables to show how high and unequally distributed the cumulative risk of foster care placement...

  2. Retrospective exposure assessment for benzene in the Australian petroleum industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glass, D.C. [Deakin Univ., Occupational Hygiene Unit, Geelong, VIC (Australia); Melbourne Univ., Dept. of Public Health and Community Medicine, Carlton, VIC (Australia); Adams, G.G.; Manuell, R.W.; Bisby, J.A. [Melbourne Univ., Dept. of Public Health and Community Medicine, Carlton, VIC (Australia)

    2000-07-01

    An excess of lympho-haematopoietic (LH) cancers has been identified in the Australian petroleum industry through the Health Watch surveillance programme. A nested case-control study is being conducted to investigate this excess. This paper describes the methods used to provide quantitative estimates of benzene exposure for each of the subjects in the case-control study. Job histories were compiled for each subject from interviews and company employment records. Site visits and telephone interviews were used to identify the tasks included in each job title. Details about the tasks such as their frequency, the technology in use and about changes that had taken place over the years were also gathered. Exposure dated back to the late 1940s for a few subjects. Collaborating petroleum companies provided recent benzene exposure monitoring data. These were used to generate Base Estimates of exposure for each task, augmented with data from the literature where necessary. Past exposures were estimated from the Base Estimates by means of an exposure algorithm. The modifying effects of technological changes and changes to the product were used in the algorithm. The algorithm was then computed to give, for each job, for each subject, an estimate of average benzene exposure in ppm in the workplace atmosphere (Workplace Estimate). This value was multiplied by the years for which the job was held and these values summed to give an estimate of Cumulative Estimate of benzene in ppm-years. The occupational hygienists performing the exposure assessment did so without knowledge of the case or control status of subjects. Overall exposures to benzene in the Australian petroleum industry were low, and virtually all activities and jobs were below a time-weighted average of 5 ppm. Exposures in terminals were generally higher than at refineries. Exposures in upstream areas were extremely low. Estimates of Cumulative Estimate to benzene ranged from 0.005 to 50.9 ppm-years. (Author)

  3. Probabilistic exposure assessment model to estimate aseptic-UHT product failure rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Magras, Catherine; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2015-01-02

    Aseptic-Ultra-High-Temperature (UHT) products are manufactured to be free of microorganisms capable of growing in the food at normal non-refrigerated conditions at which the food is likely to be held during manufacture, distribution and storage. Two important phases within the process are widely recognised as critical in controlling microbial contamination: the sterilisation steps and the following aseptic steps. Of the microbial hazards, the pathogen spore formers Clostridium botulinum and Bacillus cereus are deemed the most pertinent to be controlled. In addition, due to a relatively high thermal resistance, Geobacillus stearothermophilus spores are considered a concern for spoilage of low acid aseptic-UHT products. A probabilistic exposure assessment model has been developed in order to assess the aseptic-UHT product failure rate associated with these three bacteria. It was a Modular Process Risk Model, based on nine modules. They described: i) the microbial contamination introduced by the raw materials, either from the product (i.e. milk, cocoa and dextrose powders and water) or the packaging (i.e. bottle and sealing component), ii) the sterilisation processes, of either the product or the packaging material, iii) the possible recontamination during subsequent processing of both product and packaging. The Sterility Failure Rate (SFR) was defined as the sum of bottles contaminated for each batch, divided by the total number of bottles produced per process line run (10(6) batches simulated per process line). The SFR associated with the three bacteria was estimated at the last step of the process (i.e. after Module 9) but also after each module, allowing for the identification of modules, and responsible contamination pathways, with higher or lower intermediate SFR. The model contained 42 controlled settings associated with factory environment, process line or product formulation, and more than 55 probabilistic inputs corresponding to inputs with variability

  4. The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study: IV. Estimating historical exposures to diesel exhaust in underground non-metal mining facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Roel; Coble, Joseph B; Lubin, Jay H; Portengen, Lützen; Blair, Aaron; Attfield, Michael D; Silverman, Debra T; Stewart, Patricia A

    2010-10-01

    We developed quantitative estimates of historical exposures to respirable elemental carbon (REC) for an epidemiologic study of mortality, including lung cancer, among diesel-exposed miners at eight non-metal mining facilities [the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS)]. Because there were no historical measurements of diesel exhaust (DE), historical REC (a component of DE) levels were estimated based on REC data from monitoring surveys conducted in 1998-2001 as part of the DEMS investigation. These values were adjusted for underground workers by carbon monoxide (CO) concentration trends in the mines derived from models of historical CO (another DE component) measurements and DE determinants such as engine horsepower (HP; 1 HP = 0.746 kW) and mine ventilation. CO was chosen to estimate historical changes because it was the most frequently measured DE component in our study facilities and it was found to correlate with REC exposure. Databases were constructed by facility and year with air sampling data and with information on the total rate of airflow exhausted from the underground operations in cubic feet per minute (CFM) (1 CFM = 0.0283 m³ min⁻¹), HP of the diesel equipment in use (ADJ HP), and other possible determinants. The ADJ HP purchased after 1990 (ADJ HP₁₉₉₀(+)) was also included to account for lower emissions from newer, cleaner engines. Facility-specific CO levels, relative to those in the DEMS survey year for each year back to the start of dieselization (1947-1967 depending on facility), were predicted based on models of observed CO concentrations and log-transformed (Ln) ADJ HP/CFM and Ln(ADJ HP₁₉₉₀(+)). The resulting temporal trends in relative CO levels were then multiplied by facility/department/job-specific REC estimates derived from the DEMS surveys personal measurements to obtain historical facility/department/job/year-specific REC exposure estimates. The facility-specific temporal trends of CO levels (and thus the REC

  5. A macroscopic and microscopic study of radon exposure using Geant4 and MCNPX to estimate dose rates and DNA damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Akker, Mary Evelyn

    Radon is considered the second-leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. Epidemiological studies have been conducted in miner cohorts as well as general populations to estimate the risks associated with high and low dose exposures. There are problems with extrapolating risk estimates to low dose exposures, mainly that the dose-response curve at low doses is not well understood. Calculated dosimetric quantities give average energy depositions in an organ or a whole body, but morphological features of an individual can affect these values. As opposed to human phantom models, Computed Tomography (CT) scans provide unique, patient-specific geometries that are valuable in modeling the radiological effects of the short-lived radon progeny sources. Monte Carlo particle transport code Geant4 was used with the CT scan data to model radon inhalation in the main bronchial bifurcation. The equivalent dose rates are near the lower bounds of estimates found in the literature, depending on source volume. To complement the macroscopic study, simulations were run in a small tissue volume in Geant4-DNA toolkit. As an expansion of Geant4 meant to simulate direct physical interactions at the cellular level, the particle track structure of the radon progeny alphas can be analyzed to estimate the damage that can occur in sensitive cellular structures like the DNA molecule. These estimates of DNA double strand breaks are lower than those found in Geant4-DNA studies. Further refinements of the microscopic model are at the cutting edge of nanodosimetry research.

  6. Arsenic levels in wipe samples collected from play structures constructed with CCA-treated wood: Impact on exposure estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barraj, Leila M. [Chemical Regulation and Food Safety, Exponent, Inc., Suite 1100, 1150 Connecticut Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20036 (United States)], E-mail: lbarraj@exponent.com; Scrafford, Carolyn G. [Chemical Regulation and Food Safety, Exponent, Inc., Suite 1100, 1150 Connecticut Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20036 (United States); Eaton, W. Cary [RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Rogers, Robert E.; Jeng, Chwen-Jyh [Toxcon Health Sciences Research Centre Inc., 9607 - 41 Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta, T6E 5X7 (Canada)

    2009-04-01

    Lumber treated with chromated copper arsenate (CCA) has been used in residential outdoor wood structures and playgrounds. The U.S. EPA has conducted a probabilistic assessment of children's exposure to arsenic from CCA-treated structures using the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation model for the wood preservative scenario (SHEDS-Wood). The EPA assessment relied on data from an experimental study using adult volunteers and designed to measure arsenic in maximum hand and wipe loadings. Analyses using arsenic handloading data from a study of children playing on CCA-treated play structures in Edmonton, Canada, indicate that the maximum handloading values significantly overestimate the exposure that occurs during actual play. The objective of our paper is to assess whether the dislodgeable arsenic residues from structures in the Edmonton study are comparable to those observed in other studies and whether they support the conclusion that the values derived by EPA using modeled maximum loading values overestimate hand exposures. We compared dislodgeable arsenic residue data from structures in the playgrounds in the Edmonton study to levels observed in studies used in EPA's assessment. Our analysis showed that the dislodgeable arsenic levels in the Edmonton playground structures are similar to those in the studies used by EPA. Hence, the exposure estimates derived using the handloading data from children playing on CCA-treated structures are more representative of children's actual exposures than the overestimates derived by EPA using modeled maximum values. Handloading data from children playing on CCA-treated structures should be used to reduce the uncertainty of modeled estimates derived using the SHEDS-Wood model.

  7. ESTIMATED RATE OF FATAL AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS ATTRIBUTABLE TO ACUTE SOLVENT EXPOSURE AT LOW INHALED CONCENTRATIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acute solvent exposures may contribute to automobile accidents because they increase reaction time and decrease attention, in addition to impairing other behaviors. These effects resemble those of ethanol consumption, both with respect to behavioral effects and neurological mecha...

  8. Estimated dietary exposure to mycotoxins after taking into account the cooking of staple foods in Japan

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sakuma, Hisako; Watanabe, Yasushi; Furusawa, Hiroko; Yoshinari, Tomoya; Akashi, Hajime; Kawakami, Hiroshi; Saito, Shiro; Sugita-Konishi, Yoshiko

    2013-01-01

    .... When mycotoxins contaminate staple foods, the risk for exposure becomes serious. In East Asia, including Japan, rice is consumed as a staple food, and with the increasingly Westernized lifestyle, the consumption of wheat has increased...

  9. Evaluation of the Webler-Brown model for estimating tetrachloroethylene exposure from vinyl-lined asbestos-cement pipes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heeren Timothy C

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background From May 1968 through March 1980, vinyl-lined asbestos-cement (VL/AC water distribution pipes were installed in New England to avoid taste and odor problems associated with asbestos-cement pipes. The vinyl resin was applied to the inner pipe surface in a solution of tetrachloroethylene (perchloroethylene, PCE. Substantial amounts of PCE remained in the liner and subsequently leached into public drinking water supplies. Methods Once aware of the leaching problem and prior to remediation (April-November 1980, Massachusetts regulators collected drinking water samples from VL/AC pipes to determine the extent and severity of the PCE contamination. This study compares newly obtained historical records of PCE concentrations in water samples (n = 88 with concentrations estimated using an exposure model employed in epidemiologic studies on the cancer risk associated with PCE-contaminated drinking water. The exposure model was developed by Webler and Brown to estimate the mass of PCE delivered to subjects' residences. Results The mean and median measured PCE concentrations in the water samples were 66 and 0.5 μg/L, respectively, and the range extended from non-detectable to 2432 μg/L. The model-generated concentration estimates and water sample concentrations were moderately correlated (Spearman rank correlation coefficient = 0.48, p Conclusion PCE concentration estimates generated using the Webler-Brown model were moderately correlated with measured water concentrations. The present analysis suggests that the exposure assessment process used in prior epidemiological studies could be improved with more accurate characterization of water flow. This study illustrates one method of validating an exposure model in an epidemiological study when historical measurements are not available.

  10. The estimated prevalence of exposure to asthmagens in the Australian workforce, 2014

    OpenAIRE

    Fritschi, Lin; Crewe, Julie; Darcey, Ellie; Reid, Alison; Glass, Deborah C.; Benke, Geza P; Driscoll, Tim; Peters, Susan; Si, Si; Abramson, Michael J; Carey, Renee N

    2016-01-01

    Background There is very little information available on a national level as to the number of people exposed to specific asthmagens in workplaces. Methods We conducted a national telephone survey in Australia to investigate the prevalence of current occupational exposure to 277 asthmagens, assembled into 27 groups. Demographic and current job information were obtained. A web-based tool, OccIDEAS, was used to collect job task information and assign exposure to each asthmagen group. Results In ...

  11. Estimation of exposure to food packaging migrants in a sample of Irish children

    OpenAIRE

    Duffy, Edel

    2007-01-01

    Food packaging materials are not inert and transfer chemicals, known as migrants, into food. As the presence of chemicals in foods is a highly regulated area, food packaging migrants must undergo a risk assessment procedure before their use is permitted in food packaging materials. Exposure assessments are an integral part of this risk assessment process. The aim of this thesis was to improve the exposure assessment of food packaging migrants by collecting relevant data and applying more soph...

  12. Cumulant expansions for atmospheric flows

    CERN Document Server

    Ait-Chaalal, Farid; Meyer, Bettina; Marston, J B

    2015-01-01

    The equations governing atmospheric flows are nonlinear, and consequently the hierarchy of cumulant equations is not closed. But because atmospheric flows are inhomogeneous and anisotropic, the nonlinearity may manifests itself only weakly through interactions of mean fields with disturbances such as thermals or eddies. In such situations, truncations of the hierarchy of cumulant equations hold promise as a closure strategy. We review how truncations at second order can be used to model and elucidate the dynamics of turbulent atmospheric flows. Two examples are considered. First, we study the growth of a dry convective boundary layer, which is heated from below, leading to turbulent upward energy transport and growth of the boundary layer. We demonstrate that a quasilinear truncation of the equations of motion, in which interactions of disturbances among each other are neglected but interactions with mean fields are taken into account, can successfully capture the growth of the convective boundary layer. Seco...

  13. Electro-cumulation CNF project

    CERN Document Server

    Grishin, V G

    2000-01-01

    bound or free ion current within solid substances; non-plain symmetry; cumulation of the ion interaction. Experimental result: an Ice SuperPolarization. Cold nuclear fusion ? At http://www.shortway.to/to2084 . Keywords: ion, current, solid, symmetry, cumulation, cold nuclear fusion, polarization, depolarization, ionic conductor, superionic conductor, ice, crystal, strain, V-center, V-centre, doped crystal, interstitial impurity, intrinsic color center, high pressure technology, Bridgman, experiment, crowdion, dielectric, proton, layer, defect, lattice, dynamics, electromigration, mobility, muon catalysis, concentration, doping, dopant, conductivity, pycnonuclear reaction, permittivity, dielectric constant, point defects, interstitials, polarizability, imperfection, defect centers, glass, epitaxy, sodium hydroxide, metallic substrate, crystallization, point, tip, susceptibility, ferroelectric, ordering, force, correlation, collective, shift, distortion, coalescence, crowdions, electrolysis.

  14. USING CUMULATIVE NUMBER DENSITIES TO COMPARE GALAXIES ACROSS COSMIC TIME

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Behroozi, Peter S.; Wechsler, Risa H. [Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Marchesini, Danilo [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155 (United States); Muzzin, Adam [Leiden Observatory, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9513, 2300 RA Leiden (Netherlands); Papovich, Casey [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Stefanon, Mauro [Physics and Astronomy Department, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211 (United States)

    2013-11-01

    Comparing galaxies across redshifts at fixed cumulative number density is a popular way to estimate the evolution of specific galaxy populations. This method ignores scatter in mass accretion histories and galaxy-galaxy mergers, which can lead to errors when comparing galaxies over large redshift ranges (Δz > 1). We use abundance matching in the ΛCDM paradigm to estimate the median change in cumulative number density with redshift and provide a simple fit (+0.16 dex per unit Δz) for progenitors of z = 0 galaxies. We find that galaxy descendants do not evolve in the same way as galaxy progenitors, largely due to scatter in mass accretion histories. We also provide estimates for the 1σ range of cumulative number densities corresponding to galaxy progenitors and descendants. Finally, we discuss some limits on cumulative number density comparisons, which arise due to difficulties measuring physical quantities (e.g., stellar mass) consistently across redshifts. A public tool to calculate cumulative number density evolution for galaxies, as well as approximate halo masses, is available online.

  15. Air pollution exposure estimation using dispersion modelling and continuous monitoring data in a prospective birth cohort study in the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van den Hooven Edith H

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Previous studies suggest that pregnant women and children are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of air pollution. A prospective cohort study in pregnant women and their children enables identification of the specific effects and critical periods. This paper describes the design of air pollution exposure assessment for participants of the Generation R Study, a population-based prospective cohort study from early pregnancy onwards in 9778 women in the Netherlands. Individual exposures to PM10 and NO2 levels at the home address were estimated for mothers and children, using a combination of advanced dispersion modelling and continuous monitoring data, taking into account the spatial and temporal variation in air pollution concentrations. Full residential history was considered. We observed substantial spatial and temporal variation in air pollution exposure levels. The Generation R Study provides unique possibilities to examine effects of short- and long-term air pollution exposure on various maternal and childhood outcomes and to identify potential critical windows of exposure.

  16. Comparison of particulate matter exposure estimates in young children from personal sampling equipment and a robotic sampler.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagona, Jessica A; Shalat, Stuart L; Wang, Zuocheng; Ramagopal, Maya; Black, Kathleen; Hernandez, Marta; Mainelis, Gediminas

    2017-05-01

    Accurate characterization of particulate matter (PM) exposure in young children is difficult, because personal samplers are often too heavy, bulky or impractical to be used. The Pretoddler Inhalable Particulate Environmental Robotic (PIPER) sampler was developed to help address this problem. In this study, we measured inhalable PM exposures in 2-year-olds via a lightweight personal sampler worn in a small backpack and evaluated the use of a robotic sampler with an identical sampling train for estimating PM exposure in this age group. PM mass concentrations measured by the personal sampler ranged from 100 to almost 1,200 μg/m(3), with a median value of 331 μg/m(3). PM concentrations measured by PIPER were considerably lower, ranging from 14 to 513 μg/m(3) with a median value of 56 μg/m(3). Floor cleaning habits and activity patterns of the 2-year-olds varied widely by home; vigorous play and recent floor cleaning were most associated with higher personal exposure. Our findings highlight the need for additional characterization of children's activity patterns and their effect on personal exposures.

  17. Estimating the risks of cancer mortality and genetic defects resulting from exposures to low levels of ionizing radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buhl, T.E.; Hansen, W.R.

    1984-05-01

    Estimators for calculating the risk of cancer and genetic disorders induced by exposure to ionizing radiation have been recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and the International Committee on Radiological Protection. These groups have also considered the risks of somatic effects other than cancer. The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements has discussed risk estimate procedures for radiation-induced health effects. The recommendations of these national and international advisory committees are summarized and compared in this report. Based on this review, two procedures for risk estimation are presented for use in radiological assessments performed by the US Department of Energy under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). In the first procedure, age- and sex-averaged risk estimators calculated with US average demographic statistics would be used with estimates of radiation dose to calculate the projected risk of cancer and genetic disorders that would result from the operation being reviewed under NEPA. If more site-specific risk estimators are needed, and the demographic information is available, a second procedure is described that would involve direct calculation of the risk estimators using recommended risk-rate factors. The computer program REPCAL has been written to perform this calculation and is described in this report. 25 references, 16 tables.

  18. Short term effects of particle exposure on hospital admissions in the Mid-Atlantic states: a population estimate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itai Kloog

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Many studies report significant associations between PM(2.5 (particulate matter <2.5 micrometers and hospital admissions. These studies mostly rely on a limited number of monitors which introduces exposure error, and excludes rural and suburban populations from locations where monitors are not available, reducing generalizability and potentially creating selection bias. METHODS: Using prediction models developed by our group, daily PM(2.5 exposure was estimated across the Mid-Atlantic (Washington D.C., and the states of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New York and West Virginia. We then investigated the short-term effects of PM(2.5exposures on emergency hospital admissions of the elderly in the Mid-Atlantic region.We performed case-crossover analysis for each admission type, matching on day of the week, month and year and defined the hazard period as lag01 (a moving average of day of admission exposure and previous day exposure. RESULTS: We observed associations between short-term exposure to PM(2.5 and hospitalization for all outcomes examined. For example, for every 10-µg/m(3 increase in short-term PM(2.5 there was a 2.2% increase in respiratory diseases admissions (95% CI = 1.9 to 2.6, and a 0.78% increase in cardiovascular disease (CVD admission rate (95% CI = 0.5 to 1.0. We found differences in risk for CVD admissions between people living in rural and urban areas. For every10-µg/m(3 increase in PM(2.5 exposure in the 'rural' group there was a 1.0% increase (95% CI = 0.6 to 1.5, while for the 'urban' group the increase was 0.7% (95% CI = 0.4 to 1.0. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings showed that PM(2.5 exposure was associated with hospital admissions for all respiratory, cardio vascular disease, stroke, ischemic heart disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease admissions. In addition, we demonstrate that our AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth based exposure models can be successfully applied to

  19. Estimated dose rates to members of the public from external exposure to patients with {sup 131}I thyroid treatment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dewji, S., E-mail: dewjisa@ornl.gov; Bellamy, M.; Leggett, R.; Eckerman, K. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1 Bethel Valley Road, MS-6335, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 (United States); Hertel, N. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1 Bethel Valley Road, MS-6335, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 and Georgia Institute of Technology, 770 State Street, Atlanta, Georgia 30332-0745 (United States); Sherbini, S.; Saba, M. [United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States)

    2015-04-15

    Purpose: Estimated dose rates that may result from exposure to patients who had been administered iodine-131 ({sup 131}I) as part of medical therapy were calculated. These effective dose rate estimates were compared with simplified assumptions under United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 8.39, which does not consider body tissue attenuation nor time-dependent redistribution and excretion of the administered {sup 131}I. Methods: Dose rates were estimated for members of the public potentially exposed to external irradiation from patients recently treated with {sup 131}I. Tissue attenuation and iodine biokinetics were considered in the patient in a larger comprehensive effort to improve external dose rate estimates. The external dose rate estimates are based on Monte Carlo simulations using the Phantom with Movable Arms and Legs (PIMAL), previously developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. PIMAL was employed to model the relative positions of the {sup 131}I patient and members of the public in three exposure scenarios: (1) traveling on a bus in a total of six seated or standing permutations, (2) two nursing home cases where a caregiver is seated at 30 cm from the patient’s bedside and a nursing home resident seated 250 cm away from the patient in an adjacent bed, and (3) two hotel cases where the patient and a guest are in adjacent rooms with beds on opposite sides of the common wall, with the patient and guest both in bed and either seated back-to-back or lying head to head. The biokinetic model predictions of the retention and distribution of {sup 131}I in the patient assumed a single voiding of urinary bladder contents that occurred during the trip at 2, 4, or 8 h after {sup 131}I administration for the public transportation cases, continuous first-order voiding for the nursing home cases, and regular periodic voiding at 4, 8, or 12 h after administration for the hotel room cases. Organ

  20. Bayesian estimation of hepatitis E virus seroprevalence for populations with different exposure levels to swine in The Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwknegt, M; Engel, B; Herremans, M M P T; Widdowson, M A; Worm, H C; Koopmans, M P G; Frankena, K; de Roda Husman, A M; De Jong, M C M; Van Der Poel, W H M

    2008-04-01

    Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is ubiquitous in pigs worldwide and may be zoonotic. Previous HEV seroprevalence estimates for groups of people working with swine were higher than for control groups. However, discordance among results of anti-HEV assays means that true seroprevalence estimates, i.e. seroprevalence due to previous exposure to HEV, depends on choice of seroassay. We tested blood samples from three subpopulations (49 swine veterinarians, 153 non-swine veterinarians and 644 randomly selected individuals from the general population) with one IgM and two IgG ELISAs, and subsets with IgG and/or IgM Western blots. A Bayesian stochastical model was used to combine results of all assays. The model accounted for imperfection of each assay by estimating sensitivity and specificity, and accounted for dependence between serological assays. As expected, discordance among assay results occurred. Applying the model yielded seroprevalence estimates of approximately 11% for swine veterinarians,approximately 6% for non-swine veterinarians and approximately 2% for the general population. By combining the results of five serological assays in a Bayesian stochastical model we confirmed that exposure to swine or their environment was associated with elevated HEV seroprevalence.

  1. Estimation of Whole Body Radiation Exposure to Nuclear Medicine Personnel During Synthesis of (177)Lutetium-labeled Radiopharmaceuticals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Geetanjali; Mishra, Rajesh; Kumar, Praveen; Yadav, Madhav; Ballal, Sanjana; Bal, Chandrasekhar; Damle, Nishikant Avinash

    2017-01-01

    With rapid development in the field of nuclear medicine therapy, radiation safety of the personnel involved in synthesis of radiopharmaceuticals has become imperative. Few studies have been done on estimating the radiation exposure of personnel involved in the radio labeling of (177)Lu-compounds in western countries. However, data from the Indian subcontinent are limited. We have estimated whole body radiation exposure to the radiopharmacist involved in the labeling of: (177)Lu-DOTATATE, (177)Lu-PSMA-617, and (177)Lu-EDTMP. Background radiation was measured by keeping a pocket dosimeter around the workbench when no radioactive work was conducted. The same pocket dosimeter was given to the radiopharmacist performing the labeling of (177)Lu-compounds. All radiopharmaceuticals were synthesized by the same radiopharmacist with 3, 1 and 3 year experience, respectively, in radiolabeling the above compounds. One Curie (1 Ci) of (177)Lu was received fortnightly by our department. Data were collected for 12 syntheses of (177)Lu-DOTATATE, 8 syntheses of (177)Lu-PSMA-617, and 3 syntheses of (177)Lu-EDTMP. Mean time required to complete the synthesis was 0.81, 0.65, and 0.58 h, respectively. Mean whole body radiation exposure was 0.023 ± 0.01 mSv, 0.01 ± 0.002 mSv, and 0.002 ± 0.0006 mSv, respectively. Overall mean radiation dose for all the three (177)Lu-compounds was 0.014 mSv. Highest exposure was obtained during the synthesis of (177)Lu-DOTATATE. Our data suggest that the manual radiolabeling of (177)Lu compounds is safe, and the whole body radiation exposure to the involved personnel is well within prescribed limits.

  2. Cumulative biological impacts of The Geysers geothermal development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brownell, J.A.

    1981-10-01

    The cumulative nature of current and potential future biological impacts from full geothermal development in the steam-dominated portion of The Geysers-Calistoga KGRA are identified by the California Energy Commission staff. Vegetation, wildlife, and aquatic resources information have been reviewed and evaluated. Impacts and their significance are discussed and staff recommendations presented. Development of 3000 MW of electrical energy will result in direct vegetation losses of 2790 acres, based on an estimate of 11.5% loss per lease-hold of 0.93 acres/MW. If unmitigated, losses will be greater. Indirect vegetation losses and damage occur from steam emissions which contain elements (particularly boron) toxic to vegetation. Other potential impacts include chronic low-level boron exposure, acid rain, local climate modification, and mechanical damage. A potential exists for significant reduction and changes in wildlife from direct habitat loss and development influences. Highly erosive soils create the potential for significant reduction of aquatic resources, particularly game fish. Toxic spills have caused some temporary losses of aquatic species. Staff recommends monitoring and implementation of mitigation measures at all geothermal development stages.

  3. Estimating the exposure-response relationships between particulate matter and mortality within the APHEA multicity project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Samoli, E; Analitis, A; Touloumi, G; Schwartz, J; Anderson, HR; Sunyer, J; Bisanti, L; Zmirou, D; Vonk, JM; Pekkanen, J; Goodman, P; Paldy, A; Schindler, C; Katsouyanni, K

    2005-01-01

    Several studies have reported significant health effects of air pollution even at low levels of air pollutants, but in most of theses studies linear nonthreshold relations were assumed. We investigated the exposure-response association between ambient particles and mortality in the 22 European citie

  4. Characterization of Air Manganese Exposure Estimates for Residents in Two Ohio Towns

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study was conducted to derive receptor-specific outdoor exposure concentrations of total suspended particulate (TSP) and respirable (dae ≤1O µm) air manganese (air-Mn) for East Liverpool and Marietta (Ohio) in the absence of facility emissions data, but where long-t...

  5. Estimating Personal Exposures from Ambient Air Pollution Measures - Using Meta-Analysis to Assess Measurement Error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although ambient concentrations of particulate matter ≤ 10μm (PM10) are often used as proxies for total personal exposure, correlation (r) between ambient and personal PM10 concentrations varies. Factors underlying this variation and its effect on he...

  6. Matrix Population Model for Estimating Effects from Time-Varying Aquatic Exposures: Technical Documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Office of Pesticide Programs models daily aquatic pesticide exposure values for 30 years in its risk assessments. However, only a fraction of that information is typically used in these assessments. The population model employed herein is a deterministic, density-dependent pe...

  7. Possible use of food consumption surveys to estimate exposure to additives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Löwik, M.R.H.

    1996-01-01

    Several methods can be and are being used to assess individual food consumption. Four types, namely 24-h recall, dietary records, food frequency and dietary history are discussed. For assessing the exposure to additives it is concluded that the dietary history method is probably the best choice sinc

  8. Characterization of Air Manganese Exposure Estimates for Residents in Two Ohio Towns

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study was conducted to derive receptor-specific outdoor exposure concentrations of total suspended particulate (TSP) and respirable (dae ≤1O µm) air manganese (air-Mn) for East Liverpool and Marietta (Ohio) in the absence of facility emissions data, but where long-t...

  9. Airborne exposure to inhalable hexavalent chromium in welders and other occupations: Estimates from the German MEGA database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesch, Beate; Kendzia, Benjamin; Hauptmann, Kristin; Van Gelder, Rainer; Stamm, Roger; Hahn, Jens-Uwe; Zschiesche, Wolfgang; Behrens, Thomas; Weiss, Tobias; Siemiatycki, Jack; Lavoué, Jerome; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Brüning, Thomas

    2015-07-01

    This study aimed to estimate occupational exposure to inhalable hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) using the exposure database MEGA. The database has been compiling Cr(VI) concentrations and ancillary data about measurements at German workplaces. We analysed 3659 personal measurements of inhalable Cr(VI) collected between 1994 and 2009. Cr(VI) was determined spectrophotometrically at 540 nm after reaction with diphenylcarbazide. We assigned the measurements to pre-defined at-risk occupations using the information provided about the workplaces. Two-thirds of the measurements were below the limit of quantification (LOQ) and multiply imputed according to the distribution above LOQ. The 75th percentile value was 5.2 μg/m(3) and the 95th percentile was 57.2 μg/m(3). We predicted the geometric mean for 2h sampling in the year 2000, and the time trend of Cr(VI) exposure in these settings with and without adjustment for the duration of measurements. The largest dataset was available for welding (N = 1898), which could be further detailed according to technique. The geometric means were above 5 μg/m(3) in the following situations: spray painting, shielded metal arc welding, and flux-cored arc welding if applied to stainless steel. The geometric means were between 1 μg/m(3) and 5 μg/m(3) for gas metal arc welding of stainless steel, cutting, hard-chromium plating, metal spraying and in the chemical chromium industry. The exposure profiles described here are useful for epidemiologic and industrial health purposes. Exposure to Cr(VI) varies not only between occupations, but also within occupations as shown for welders. In epidemiologic studies, it would be desirable to collect exposure-specific information in addition to the job title.

  10. The optimal UV exposure time for vitamin D3 synthesis and erythema estimated by UV observations in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y. G.; Koo, J. H.

    2016-12-01

    Solar UV radiation in a wavelength range between 280 to 400 nm has both positive and negative influences on human body. Surface UV radiation is the main natural source of vitamin D, providing the promotion of bone and musculoskeletal health and reducing the risk of a number of cancers and other medical conditions. However, overexposure to surface UV radiation is significantly related with the majority of skin cancer, in addition other negative health effects such as sunburn, skin aging, and some forms of eye cataracts. Therefore, it is important to estimate the optimal UV exposure time, representing a balance between reducing negative health effects and maximizing sufficient vitamin D production. Previous studies calculated erythemal UV and vitamin-D UV from the measured and modelled spectral irradiances, respectively, by weighting CIE Erythema and Vitamin D3 generation functions (Kazantzidis et al., 2009; Fioletov et al., 2010). In particular, McKenzie et al. (2009) suggested the algorithm to estimate vitamin-D production UV from erythemal UV (or UV index) and determined the optimum conditions of UV exposure based on skin type Ⅱ according to the Fitzpatrick (1988). Recently, there are various demands for risks and benefits of surface UV radiation on public health over Korea, thus it is necessary to estimate optimal UV exposure time suitable to skin type of East Asians. This study examined the relationship between erythemally weighted UV (UVEry) and vitamin D weighted UV (UVVitD) from spectral UV measurements during 2006-2010. The temporal variations of the ratio (UVVitD/UVEry) were also analyzed and the ratio as a function of UV index was applied to the broadband UV measured by UV-Biometer at 6 sites in Korea Thus, the optimal UV exposure time for vitamin D3 synthesis and erythema was estimated for diurnal, seasonal, and annual scales over Korea. In summer with high surface UV radiation, short exposure time leaded to sufficient vitamin D and erythema and vice

  11. Concentration of credit exposure as a significant source of risk in banking activities: the idea and methods of estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylwester Kozak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The simultaneous activation of many sources of risk can slow bank operations and even lead to bankruptcy. Credit risk is the greatest threat to the orderly functioning of a bank. To protect against its materialization banks spend nearly 90% of their total capital requirement. Concentration of credit exposure to single entities, as well as to single economic sectors, can be a source of additional risks. Estimation of the additional portion of the capital requirement in selected banks in Poland in 2008-2013 indicates that banks should assign additional 4% and 2% of the capital requirement to cover the risk of exposure concentrations in: respectively, individual entities and individual economic sectors. For banks with a retail profile more important was the risk of large exposures in individual economic sectors, and for banks with a corporate profile in individual entities. Estimates were carried out according to the procedure used by the Bank of Spain and the Bank of Slovenia, and the data derived from the annual financial reports of selected banks listed on the WSE.

  12. The Algebra of the Cumulative Percent Operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Andrew J.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses how to help students avoid some pervasive reasoning errors in solving cumulative percent problems. Discusses the meaning of ."%+b%." the additive inverse of ."%." and other useful applications. Emphasizes the operational aspect of the cumulative percent concept. (KHR)

  13. Adaptive strategies for cumulative cultural learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehn, Micael; Laland, Kevin

    2012-05-21

    The demographic and ecological success of our species is frequently attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture. However, it is not yet known how humans combine social and asocial learning to generate effective strategies for learning in a cumulative cultural context. Here we explore how cumulative culture influences the relative merits of various pure and conditional learning strategies, including pure asocial and social learning, critical social learning, conditional social learning and individual refiner strategies. We replicate the Rogers' paradox in the cumulative setting. However, our analysis suggests that strategies that resolved Rogers' paradox in a non-cumulative setting may not necessarily evolve in a cumulative setting, thus different strategies will optimize cumulative and non-cumulative cultural learning.

  14. Estimated effective dose rates from radon exposure in workplaces and residences within Los Alamos county in New Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whicker, Jeffrey J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mcnaughton, Michael [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Many millions of office workers are exposed to radon while at work and at home. Though there has been a multitude of studies reporting the measurements of radon concentrations and potential lung and effective doses associated with radon and progeny exposure in homes, similar studies on the concentrations and subsequent effective dose rates in the workplace are lacking. The purposes of this study were to measure radon concentrations in office and residential spaces in the same county and explore the radiation dose implications. Sixty-five track-etch detectors were deployed in office spaces and 47 were deployed in residences, all within Los Alamos County, New Mexico, USA. The sampling periods for these measurements were generally about three months. The measured concentrations were then used to calculate and compare effective dose rates resulting from exposure while at work and at home. Results showed that full-time office workers receive on average about nine times greater exposure at home than while in the office (691 mrem yr{sup -1} versus 78 mrem yr{sup -1}). The estimated effective dose rate for a more homebound person was 896 mrem yr{sup -1}. These effective dose rates are contrasted against the 100 mrem yr{sup -1} threshold for regulation of a 'radiological worker' defined in the Department of Energy regulations occupational exposure and the 10 mrem yr{sup -1} air pathway effective public dose limit regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency.

  15. National estimates of exposure to traumatic events and PTSD prevalence using DSM-IV and DSM-5 criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilpatrick, Dean G; Resnick, Heidi S; Milanak, Melissa E; Miller, Mark W; Keyes, Katherine M; Friedman, Matthew J

    2013-10-01

    Prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) defined according to the American Psychiatric Association's Diagnostic and Statistical Manual fifth edition (DSM-5; 2013) and fourth edition (DSM-IV; 1994) was compared in a national sample of U.S. adults (N = 2,953) recruited from an online panel. Exposure to traumatic events, PTSD symptoms, and functional impairment were assessed online using a highly structured, self-administered survey. Traumatic event exposure using DSM-5 criteria was high (89.7%), and exposure to multiple traumatic event types was the norm. PTSD caseness was determined using Same Event (i.e., all symptom criteria met to the same event type) and Composite Event (i.e., symptom criteria met to a combination of event types) definitions. Lifetime, past-12-month, and past 6-month PTSD prevalence using the Same Event definition for DSM-5 was 8.3%, 4.7%, and 3.8% respectively. All 6 DSM-5 prevalence estimates were slightly lower than their DSM-IV counterparts, although only 2 of these differences were statistically significant. DSM-5 PTSD prevalence was higher among women than among men, and prevalence increased with greater traumatic event exposure. Major reasons individuals met DSM-IV criteria, but not DSM-5 criteria were the exclusion of nonaccidental, nonviolent deaths from Criterion A, and the new requirement of at least 1 active avoidance symptom.

  16. National Estimates of Exposure to Traumatic Events and PTSD Prevalence Using DSM-IV and DSM-5 Criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilpatrick, Dean G.; Resnick, Heidi S.; Milanak, Melissa E.; Miller, Mark W.; Keyes, Katherine M.; Friedman, Matthew J.

    2014-01-01

    Prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) defined according to the American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual fifth edition (DSM-5; 2013) and fourth edition (DSM-IV; 1994) was compared in a national sample of U.S. adults (N = 2,953) recruited from an online panel. Exposure to traumatic events, PTSD symptoms, and functional impairment were assessed online using a highly structured, self-administered survey. Traumatic event exposure using DSM-5 criteria was high (89.7%), and exposure to multiple traumatic event types was the norm. PTSD caseness was determined using Same Event (i.e., all symptom criteria met to the same event type) and Composite Event (i.e., symptom criteria met to a combination of event types) definitions. Lifetime, past-12-month, and past 6-month PTSD prevalence using the Same Event definition for DSM-5 was 8.3%, 4.7%, and 3.8% respectively. All 6 DSM-5 prevalence estimates were slightly lower than their DSM-IV counterparts, although only 2 of these differences were statistically significant. DSM-5 PTSD prevalence was higher among women than among men, and prevalence increased with greater traumatic event exposure. Major reasons individuals met DSM-IV criteria, but not DSM-5 criteria were the exclusion of nonaccidental, nonviolent deaths from Criterion A, and the new requirement of at least 1 active avoidance symptom. PMID:24151000

  17. "Buddha's Light" of Cumulative Particles

    CERN Document Server

    Kopeliovich, Vladimir B; Potashnikova, Irina K

    2014-01-01

    We show analytically that in the cumulative particles production off nuclei multiple interactions lead to a glory-like backward focusing effect. Employing the small phase space method we arrived at a characteristic angular dependence of the production cross section $d\\sigma \\sim 1/ \\sqrt {\\pi - \\theta}$ near the strictly backward direction. This effect takes place for any number $n\\geq 3 $ of interactions of rescattered particle, either elastic or inelastic (with resonance excitations in intermediate states), when the final particle is produced near corresponding kinematical boundary. Such a behaviour of the cross section near the backward direction is in qualitative agreement with some of available data.

  18. A Resource Cost Aware Cumulative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonis, Helmut; Hadzic, Tarik

    We motivate and introduce an extension of the well-known cumulative constraint which deals with time and volume dependent cost of resources. Our research is primarily interested in scheduling problems under time and volume variable electricity costs, but the constraint equally applies to manpower scheduling when hourly rates differ over time and/or extra personnel incur higher hourly rates. We present a number of possible lower bounds on the cost, including a min-cost flow, different LP and MIP models, as well as greedy algorithms, and provide a theoretical and experimental comparison of the different methods.

  19. The proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Frank; Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    We suggest an estimator for the proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks data. The key advantage of this model is that the regression parameters have the simple and useful odds ratio interpretation. The model has been considered by many authors, but it is rarely used in pr...

  20. A semi-probabilistic modelling approach for the estimation of dietary exposure to phthalates in the Belgian adult population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fierens, T; Standaert, A; Cornelis, C; Sioen, I; De Henauw, S; Willems, H; Bellemans, M; De Maeyer, M; Van Holderbeke, M

    2014-12-01

    In this study, a semi-probabilistic modelling approach was applied for the estimation of the long-term human dietary exposure to phthalates--one of world's most used families of plasticisers. Four phthalate compounds were considered: diethyl phthalate (DEP), di-n-butyl phthalate (DnBP), benzylbutyl phthalate (BBP) and di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP). Intake estimates were calculated for the Belgian adult population and several subgroups of this population for two considered scenarios using an extended version of the EN-forc model. The highest intake rates were found for DEHP, followed by DnBP, BBP and DEP. In the Belgian adult population, men and young adults generally had the highest dietary phthalate intake estimates. Nevertheless, predicted dietary intake rates for all four investigated phthalates were far below the corresponding tolerable daily intake (TDI) values (i.e. P99 intake values were 6.4% of the TDI at most), which is reassuring because adults are also exposed to phthalates via other contamination pathways (e.g. dust ingestion and inhalation). The food groups contributing most to the dietary exposure were grains and grain-based products for DEP, milk and dairy products for DnBP, meat and meat products or grains and grain-based products (depending on the scenario) for BBP and meat and meat products for DEHP. Comparison of the predicted intake results based on modelled phthalate concentrations in food products with intake estimates from other surveys (mostly based on measured concentrations) showed that the extended version of the EN-forc model is a suitable semi-probabilistic tool for the estimation and evaluation of the long-term dietary intake of phthalates in humans.

  1. A cautionary note about estimating effects of secondary exposures in cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahrens, K A; Cole, S R; Westreich, D; Platt, R W; Schisterman, E F

    2015-02-01

    Cohort studies are often enriched for a primary exposure of interest to improve cost-effectiveness, which presents analytical challenges not commonly discussed in epidemiology. In this paper, we use causal diagrams to represent exposure-enriched cohort studies, illustrate a scenario wherein the risk ratio for the effect of a secondary exposure on an outcome is biased, and propose an analytical method for correcting for such bias. In our motivating example, maternal smoking (Z) is a cause of fetal growth restriction (X), which subsequently affects preterm birth (Y) (i.e., Z → X → Y); strong positive associations exist between both Z, X and X, Y; and enrichment for X increases its prevalence from 10% to 50%. In the X-enriched cohort, unadjusted and X-adjusted analyses lead to bias in the risk ratio for the total effect of Z on Y. After application of inverse probability weights, the bias is corrected, with a small loss of efficiency in comparison with a same-sized study without X-enrichment. With increasing interest in conducting secondary analyses to reduce research costs, caution should be employed when analyzing studies that have already been enriched, intentionally or unintentionally, for a primary exposure of interest. Causal diagrams can help identify scenarios in which secondary analyses may be biased. Inverse probability weights can be used to remove the bias. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Estimating children's exposure to toxic elements in contaminated toys and children's jewelry via saliva mobilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guney, Mert; Nguyen, Alain; Zagury, Gerald J

    2014-09-19

    Children's potential for exposure to potentially toxic elements in contaminated jewelry and toys via mouth contact has not yet been fully evaluated. Various toys and jewelry (metallic toys and jewelry [MJ], plastic toys, toys with paint or coating, and brittle/pliable toys; n = 32) were tested using the saliva extraction (mouthing) compartment of the DIN and RIVM bioaccessibility protocols to assess As, Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Se mobilization via saliva. Total concentrations of As, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Sb were found elevated in analyzed samples. Four metals were mobilized to saliva from 16 MJ in significant quantities (>1 μg for highly toxic Cd and Pb, >10 μg for Cu and Ni). Bioaccessible concentrations and hazard index values for Cd exceeded limit values, for young children between 6 mo- and 3 yr-old and according to both protocols. Total and bioaccessible metal concentrations were different and not always correlated, encouraging the use of bioaccessibility for more accurate hazard assessments. Bioaccessibility increased with increasing extraction time. Overall, the risk from exposure to toxic elements via mouthing was high only for Cd and for MJ. Further research on children's exposure to toxic elements following ingestion of toy or jewelry material is recommended.

  3. Dual-source computed tomography: Estimation of radiation exposure of ECG-gated and ECG-triggered coronary angiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ketelsen, Dominik [Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, University Hospital Tuebingen, Hoppe-Seyler-Strasse 3, 72076 Tuebingen (Germany)], E-mail: dominik.ketelsen@med.uni-tuebingen.de; Thomas, Christoph; Werner, Matthias; Luetkhoff, Marie H. [Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, University Hospital Tuebingen, Hoppe-Seyler-Strasse 3, 72076 Tuebingen (Germany); Buchgeister, Markus [Departments of Radiotherapy and Radiooncology, University Hospital Tuebingen, Hoppe-Seyler-Strasse 3, 72076 Tuebingen (Germany); Tsiflikas, Ilias; Reimann, Anja [Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, University Hospital Tuebingen, Hoppe-Seyler-Strasse 3, 72076 Tuebingen (Germany); Burgstahler, Christof [Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Tuebingen, Ottfried-Mueller-Strasse 10, 72076 Tuebingen (Germany); Brodoefel, Harald; Kopp, Andreas F.; Claussen, Claus D.; Heuschmid, Martin [Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, University Hospital Tuebingen, Hoppe-Seyler-Strasse 3, 72076 Tuebingen (Germany)

    2010-02-15

    Purpose: The aim of the study was to estimate radiation exposure of coronary calcium scoring and angiography using ECG-gated and ECG-triggered dual-source computed tomography. Materials and methods: An Alderson Rando phantom equipped with thermoluminescent dosimeters was used for all dose measurements. Effective dose was calculated according to ICRP 103. Radiation exposure was performed on a dual-source computed tomography (DSCT) scanner with standard protocols for calcium scoring (DSCT-Ca) and coronary angiography (DSCTA) at different heart rates (40-100 beats/min). Furthermore, a scanning protocol with ECG-triggering as well as a standard chest CT scan were evaluated. Results: Depending on gender, heart rate and ECG-pulsing, the effective dose of a complete cardiac DSCT (DSCT-Ca and DSCTA) scan varies from 10.2 to 32.6 mSv. The effective radiation dose increased significantly with lower heart rates (p < 0.035). ECG-pulsing reduced the radiation exposure significantly in DSCTA (p < 0.001). Due to breast tissue in the primary scan range, females' doses showed an increase up to 69.9% compared to males in scan protocols without ECG-pulsing. Prospective ECG-triggered DSCTA resulted in estimated effective doses from 2.8 mSv (males) to 4.1 mSv (females). Conclusion: The ECG-pulsing technique has proven its effectiveness to reduce effective dose in coronary CT angiography and is recommended for all patients with regular heart rates. The patient's heart rate influences the radiation exposure with a significant decrease at higher heart rates. Due to its lower dose, ECG-triggered DSCTA should be implemented for special indications, i.e. for diagnosis of pathologies of the aortic root and the ascending aorta.

  4. Estimation of radiation exposure of retrospective gated and prospective triggered 128-slice triple-rule-out CT angiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ketelsen, Dominik; Fenchel, Michael; Thomas, Christoph; Buchgeister, Markus; Boehringer, Nadine; Tsiflikas, Ilias; Kaempf, Michael; Claussen, Claus D; Heuschmid, Martin

    2011-09-01

    CT has become an important role in the differential diagnosis of acute chest pain to exclude an aortic dissection, pulmonary embolism and acute coronary artery syndrome. However, the additional radiation exposure is a cause of concern and dose saving strategies should be applied, if possible. To estimate effective dose of retrospective gated and prospective ECG-triggered triple-rule-out computed tomography angiography (TRO-CTA). An Alderson-Rando-phantom equipped with thermoluminescent dosimeters was used for dose measurements. Exposure was performed on a 128-slice single source scanner. The following scan parameters were used (retrospective ECG-gated): 120 kV, 190 mAs/rot., collimation 128x0.6 mm, rotation time 0.3 s. Protocols with a simulated heart rate (HR) of 60 and 100 bpm were performed using the standard ECG-pulsing as well as MinDose. Additionally, a prospective triggered TRO-CTA was acquired (HR 60 bpm). The estimated effective dose of retrospective ECG-gated TRO-CTA ranged from 7.4-13.4 mSv and from 10.1-17.5 mSv for men and women, respectively. Due to radiosensitive breast tissue, women received a significant increased effective dose of up to 64.7% ± 0.03% (p = 0.028) compared to men. MinDose reduces radiation exposure of up to 33.0% ± 6.5% in comparison to standard ECG-pulsing (p TRO-CTA showed an effective dose of 5.9 mSv and 8.2 mSv for men and women, respectively. Compared to retrospective ECG-gated TRO-CTA a significant dose reduction was observed (p < 0.001). Due to the significant different dose exposure, scan protocols should be specifically adapted in a patient- and problem-oriented manner.

  5. Utility of MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth for Estimating PM2.5 Exposure in Environmental Public Health Surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Hamdan, Mohammad; Crosson, William; Limaye, Ashutosh; Rickman, Doug; Quattrochi, Dale; Estes, Maury; Adeniyi, Kafayat; Qualters, Judith; Niskar, Amanda Sue

    2006-01-01

    As part of the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN) the National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is leading a project called Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange (HELIX-Atlanta). The goal of developing the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network is to improve the health of communities. Currently, few systems exist at the state or national level to concurrently track many of the exposures and health effects that might be associated with environmental hazards. An additional challenge is estimating exposure to environmental hazards such as particulate matter whose aerodynamic diameter is less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM(2.5)) HELIX-Atlanta's goal is to examine the feasibility of building an integrated electronic health and environmental data network in five counties of Metropolitan Atlanta, GA (Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties). Under HELIX-Atlanta, pilot projects are being conducted to develop methods to characterize exposure; link health and environmental data; analyze the relationship between health and environmental factors; and communicate findings. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA/MSFC) is collaborating with CDC to combine NASA earth science satellite observations related to air quality and environmental monitoring data to model surface estimates of PM(2.5) concentrations that can be linked with clinic visits for asthma. From 1999-2000 there were over 9,400 hospitalizations per year in Georgia with asthma as the primary diagnosis. The majority of these hospitalizations occurred in medical facilities in the five most populous Metro-Atlanta counties. Hospital charges resulting from asthma in Georgia are approximately $59 million dollars annually. There is evidence in the research literature that asthmatic persons are at increased risk of developing asthma exacerbations with exposure to environmental factors

  6. Preliminary estimation of infantile exposure to BPA based on the standard quality of baby bottles distributed in Isfahan urban society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Abdi Moghadam

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: This study was aimed to estimate the bisphenol A (BPA intake from baby bottles, considering the diversity and the standard quality of the baby bottles distributed in an Isfahan urban society. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed in Isfahan in 2011. Baby shops ( n = 33 and drug stores ( n = 7 in four district areas were included in the study. The distribution of baby bottles was investigated regarding their brand, origin, and being labeled "BPA free." Estimation of exposure to BPA from baby bottles was made based on the national and international representative data. Results: The products marked as "BPA free" were found among the western products and limited to two of the selected areas. No "BPA free" marked baby bottle was distinguished among the Iranian made products. Of the 8% exclusively formula-fed infants, 90% may be the high consumers of BPA from polycarbonate baby bottles, with an intake of 1.5-2 μg/kg b.w./day for the moderate and 7.5-10 μg/kg b.w./day in case of worse condition. Conclusion: Considering the current globally accepted threshold daily intake (TDI for BPA, primary exposure estimation is that feeding using non-BPA-free baby bottles is not a serious health concern in Iran. Thought that threshold level of TDI is discussed to be reduced in future, improvement and revision of the national standards can be effective in reducing the exposure to BPA in Iranian infants so as to provide large margin of safety for them.

  7. Natural occurrence of aflatoxin B1 in marketed foods and risk estimates of dietary exposure in Koreans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ok, Hyun Ee; Kim, Hyun Jung; Shim, Won Bo; Lee, Hyomin; Bae, Dong-Ho; Chung, Duck-Hwa; Chun, Hyang Sook

    2007-12-01

    Aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) is an unavoidable food contaminant. To evaluate the potential health risk of AFB1 to Koreans posed by food consumption, we determined the natural occurrence of AFB1 in food and estimated the excess risk for liver cancer through dietary exposure to AFB1. A total of 694 food samples collected from six different regions of South Korea were analyzed for their AFB, content. One hundred four of the 694 samples were found to give positive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) readings for AFB1 and were further investigated with high-performance liquid chromatography. Thirty-two samples, including 2 maize samples, 3 soybean products, 20 peanut samples, nut samples, and their products, and 7 spices, were found to be contaminated with AFB1 (4.6% incidence), up to 48.6 microg kg(-1). The level of AFB1 contamination in 28 of the 32 food products was below 10 microg kg(-1), which is the legal tolerance limit in Korea. From data on daily food consumption, the exposure dose of AFB1 was estimated to be 6.42 x 10(-7) mg kg(-1) body weight (bw) day(-1). The major contributors to the dietary intake of AFB1 were soybean paste and soy sauce, which composed 91% of the total exposure to AFB1. The excess risk of liver cancer for those exposed to AFB1 through food intake was estimated to be 5.78 x 10(-6) for hepatitis B-negative individuals and 1.48 x 10(-4) for hepatitis B-positive individuals. These results suggest that special consideration is required to reduce the intake of AFB1 in hepatitis B-positive individuals.

  8. Enhanced intestinal tumor multiplicity and grade in vivo after HZE exposure: mouse models for space radiation risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trani, Daniela; Datta, Kamal; Doiron, Kathryn; Kallakury, Bhaskar; Fornace, Albert J

    2010-08-01

    Carcinogenesis induced by space radiation is considered a major risk factor in manned interplanetary and other extended missions. The models presently used to estimate the risk for cancer induction following deep space radiation exposure are based on data from A-bomb survivor cohorts and do not account for important biological differences existing between high-linear energy transfer (LET) and low-LET-induced DNA damage. High-energy and charge (HZE) radiation, the main component of galactic cosmic rays (GCR), causes highly complex DNA damage compared to low-LET radiation, which may lead to increased frequency of chromosomal rearrangements, and contribute to carcinogenic risk in astronauts. Gastrointestinal (GI) tumors are frequent in the United States, and colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer accounting for 10% of all cancer deaths. On the basis of the aforementioned epidemiological observations and the frequency of spontaneous precancerous GI lesions in the general population, even a modest increase in incidence by space radiation exposure could have a significant effect on health risk estimates for future manned space flights. Ground-based research is necessary to reduce the uncertainties associated with projected cancer risk estimates and to gain insights into molecular mechanisms involved in space-induced carcinogenesis. We investigated in vivo differential effects of gamma-rays and HZE ions on intestinal tumorigenesis using two different murine models, ApcMin/+ and Apc1638N/+. We showed that gamma- and/or HZE exposure significantly enhances development and progression of intestinal tumors in a mutant-line-specific manner, and identified suitable models for in vivo studies of space radiation-induced intestinal tumorigenesis.

  9. A paradox of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

    2015-08-21

    Culture can grow cumulatively if socially learnt behaviors are improved by individual learning before being passed on to the next generation. Previous authors showed that this kind of learning strategy is unlikely to be evolutionarily stable in the presence of a trade-off between learning and reproduction. This is because culture is a public good that is freely exploited by any member of the population in their model (cultural social dilemma). In this paper, we investigate the effect of vertical transmission (transmission from parents to offspring), which decreases the publicness of culture, on the evolution of cumulative culture in both infinite and finite population models. In the infinite population model, we confirm that culture accumulates largely as long as transmission is purely vertical. It turns out, however, that introduction of even slight oblique transmission drastically reduces the equilibrium level of culture. Even more surprisingly, if the population size is finite, culture hardly accumulates even under purely vertical transmission. This occurs because stochastic extinction due to random genetic drift prevents a learning strategy from accumulating enough culture. Overall, our theoretical results suggest that introducing vertical transmission alone does not really help solve the cultural social dilemma problem. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Existence of Solutions of a Riccati Differential System from a General Cumulant Control Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanley R. Liberty

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We study a system of infinitely many Riccati equations that arise from a cumulant control problem, which is a generalization of regulator problems, risk-sensitive controls, minimal cost variance controls, and k-cumulant controls. We obtain estimates for the existence intervals of solutions of the system. In particular, new existence conditions are derived for solutions on the horizon of the cumulant control problem.

  11. Use of portable microbial samplers for estimating inhalation exposure to viable biological agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Maosheng; Mainelis, Gediminas

    2007-01-01

    Portable microbial samplers are being increasingly used to determine the presence of microbial agents in the air; however, their performance characteristics when sampling airborne biological agents are largely unknown. In addition, it is unknown whether these samplers could be used to assess microbial inhalation exposure according to the particle sampling conventions. This research analyzed collection efficiencies of MAS-100, Microflow, SMA MicroPortable, Millipore Air Tester, SAS Super 180, BioCulture, and RCS High Flow portable microbial samplers when sampling six bacterial and fungal species ranging from 0.61 to 3.14 microm in aerodynamic diameter. The efficiencies with which airborne microorganisms were deposited on samplers' collection medium were compared to the particle inhalation and lung deposition convention curves. When sampling fungi, RCS High Flow and SAS Super 180 deposited 80%-90% of airborne spores on agar - highest among investigated samplers. Other samplers showed collection efficiencies of 10%-60%. When collecting bacteria, RCS High Flow and MAS-100 collected 20%-30%, whereas other samplers collected less than 10% of these bioparticles. Comparison of samplers' collection efficiencies with particle inhalation convention curves showed that RCS High Flow and SAS Super 180 could be used to assess inhalation exposure to particles larger than 2.5 microm, such as fungal spores. Performance of RCS High Flow sampler was also reflective of the particle lung deposition pattern when sampling both bacteria and fungi. MAS-100 and SAS Super 180 matched the total deposition curve fairly well when collecting bacterial and fungi species, respectively. For other tested samplers, we observed substantial discrepancies between their performances and particle deposition efficiencies in the lung. The results show that feasibility of applying portable microbial samplers for exposure assessment depends on a particular sampler model and microbial species.

  12. Determination of radionuclides and pathways contributing to cumulative dose

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.

    1992-12-01

    A series of scoping calculations has been undertaken to evaluate the absolute and relative contributions of different radionuclides and exposure pathways to doses that may have been received by individuals living in the vicinity of the Hanford Site. This scoping calculation (Calculation 004) examined the contributions of numerous radionuclides to cumulative dose via environmental exposures and accumulation in foods. Addressed in this calculation were the contributions to organ and effective dose of infants and adults from (1) air submersion and groundshine external dose, (2) inhalation, (3) ingestion of soil by humans, (4) ingestion of leafy vegetables, (5) ingestion of other vegetables and fruits, (6) ingestion of meat, (7) ingestion of eggs, and (8) ingestion of cows' milk from Feeding Regime 1, as described in calculation 002. This calculation specifically addresses cumulative radiation doses to infants and adults resulting from releases occurring over the period 1945 through 1972.

  13. Approach for Estimating Exposures and Incremental Health Effects from Lead During Renovation, Repair, and Painting Activities in Public and Commercial Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Approach for Estimating Exposures and Incremental Health Effects from Lead During Renovation, Repair, and Painting Activities in Public and Commercial Buildings” (Technical Approach Document). Also available for public review and comment are two supplementary documents: the detai...

  14. Approach for Estimating Exposures and Incremental Health Effects from Lead Due to Renovation Repair and Painting Activities in Public and Commercial Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Approach for Estimating Exposures and Incremental Health Effects from Lead Due to Renovation Repair and Painting Activities in Public and Commercial Buildings: links to documents at www.regulations.gov, links to PDFs related to Approach document

  15. A stochastic exposure assessment model to estimate vanadium intake by beef cattle used as sentinels for the South African vanadium mining industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gummow, B.; Kirsten, W.F.A.; Gummow, R.J.; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents an environmental exposure assessment model for estimating chronic intake of vanadium (a transition metal) by cattle farmed extensively in areas contaminated by vanadium pollutants. The exposure model differs from most other models in several ways: (1) it does not rely heavily

  16. A stochastic exposure assessment model to estimate vanadium intake by beef cattle used as sentinels for the South African vanadium mining industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gummow, B.; Kirsten, W.F.A.; Gummow, R.J.; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents an environmental exposure assessment model for estimating chronic intake of vanadium (a transition metal) by cattle farmed extensively in areas contaminated by vanadium pollutants. The exposure model differs from most other models in several ways: (1) it does not rely heavily on

  17. Monitoring of perchlorate in diverse foods and its estimated dietary exposure for Korea populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ji-Woo; Oh, Sung-Hee; Oh, Jeong-Eun

    2012-12-01

    The perchlorate concentrations in various Korean food samples were monitored, and 663 samples belonging to 39 kinds of food were analyzed. The analysis results revealed that dairy products contain the highest average concentration of 6.34 μg/kg and high detection frequency of over 85%. Fruit and vegetables showed the next highest perchlorate concentration with an average of 6.17 μg/kg. Especially, with its average concentration of 39.9 μg/kg, spinach showed the highest perchlorate level among all target food samples studied. Tomato was followed by spinach, which showed a high perchlorate average concentration of 19.8 μg/kg, and over 7 μg/kg was detected in ham and sausage (avg. 7.31 μg/kg) and in instant noodles (avg. 7.58 μg/kg). Less than 2 μg/kg was detected in fishes, meats and beverages. The exposure dose of perchlorate in Korean by food intake was calculated on the basis of the analyzed perchlorate levels in this study. The daily perchlorate dose to which Korean adults are exposed is 0.04 μg/kg bw/day, which is lower than the RfD (0.7 μg/kg bw/day) value suggested by US NAS. This result indicates that Korean people's current exposure to perchlorate from domestic food consumption is evaluated as safe. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Soil Water Availability Modulation Over Estimated Relative Yield Losses in Wheat (Triticum aestivum L. Due to Ozone Exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel De la Torre

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The approach developed by Fuhrer in 1995 to estimate wheat yield losses induced by ozone and modulated by the soil water content (SWC was applied to the data on Catalonian wheat yields. The aim of our work was to apply this approach and adjust it to Mediterranean environmental conditions by means of the necessary corrections. The main objective pursued was to prove the importance of soil water availability in the estimation of relative wheat yield losses as a factor that modifies the effects of tropospheric ozone on wheat, and to develop the algorithms required for the estimation of relative yield losses, adapted to the Mediterranean environmental conditions. The results show that this is an easy way to estimate relative yield losses just using meteorological data, without using ozone fluxes, which are much more difficult to calculate. Soil water availability is very important as a modulating factor of the effects of ozone on wheat; when soil water availability decreases, almost twice the amount of accumulated exposure to ozone is required to induce the same percentage of yield loss as in years when soil water availability is high.

  19. Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in US meat and poultry: 2012-13 levels, trends and estimated consumer exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupton, Sara J; Hakk, Heldur

    2017-09-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are a class of brominated flame retardants whose use has contaminated foods and caused subsequent human exposures. To address the issue of possible human exposure, samples from a 2012-13 US meat and poultry (beef, pork, chicken, turkey) study were analysed for seven PBDEs. The mean summed concentrations of the seven BDE congeners (ΣPBDE) from beef, pork, chicken and turkey were 0.40, 0.36, 0.19, and 0.76 ng g(-1) lipid weight (lw). The range of ΣPBDEs for all meat classes was 0.01-15.78 ng g(-1) lw. A comparison of this study with a 2007-08 study revealed a decline in the median ΣPBDEs for all four meat classes, a reduction of 25.9% to 70.0%, with pork, chicken and turkey PBDE residues being statistically lower relative to the 2007-08 study. BDEs 47 and 99 contributed the most to the ΣPBDE concentrations, indicating likely animal exposures to the penta-BDE formulation. Based on the reported data an estimate of US consumer daily intake of PBDEs from meat and poultry was 6.42 ng day(-1).

  20. Estimation of organ doses from selfreported data of medical exposures; Bestimmung von Organdosen aus selbstberichteten retrospektiven Daten zur medizinischen Strahlenexposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ningo, Anye; Fiebich, Martin; Breckow, Joachim [Technische Hochschule Mittelhessen, Giessen (Germany). Inst. fuer Medizinische Physik und Strahlenschutz; Poettgen, Saskia; Samkange-Zeeb, Florence; Obi, Nadia; Zeeb, Hajo [Bremen Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Epidemiologie und Praeventionsforschung; Merzenich, Hiltrud [Mainz Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Medizinische Biometrie, Epidemiologie und Informatik

    2012-07-01

    Currently there is no feasible way for systematic data collection of individual medical radiation exposure for the assessment of cancer risk. Therefore in the frame of a feasibility study, the retrospective registration of medical radiation exposure and a methodology for estimating the organ dose has been investigated. Three methods have been developed that can be implemented for the organ dose calculation depending on the data available. Firstly, the entrance dose was calculated and thereafter, using conversion factors the organ dose was calculated. The most common X-ray examinations were Dental (80%) followed by radiographs of the chest area (58%). Less than half of all participants in the study (45%) had undergone a CT scan with head examinations (21%) having the highest frequency. The frequency distribution of the effective dose for each participant showed that 90% of all participants received a dose between 0 to 0,3 mSv from X-ray and 0 - 4,5 mSv from CT examinations. Although more X-ray examinations were performed, the CT examinations accounted for the most of the radiation exposure. In principle, using self-reported data, dose assessment and dose reconstruction can be carried out taking into account the different calendar periods. (orig.)

  1. Evaluation of field methods for estimating exposure of children in low-income families to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, N.K.; Chuang, J.C.; Lyu, C.

    1996-12-31

    Children in low-income families may have higher exposures to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and related compounds than children in higher-income families. These higher exposures could result from the location of their homes, nearer to industrial sites and traffic; from poorer diet; from environmental tobacco smoke; or other causes. The study was designed to evaluate methods and estimate the range of total exposures of low-income children to PAH through various pathways. Nonsmoking participants with preschool children, incomes at or below the official US poverty level, and space heating in their homes were recruited. The PAH concentrations were measured in the household indoor and outdoor air, house dust, and yard soil, and in the diet of both an adult and a preschool child living in the home. An initial study in two homes and an additional study of nine homes, four urban and five rural, during the heating season were completed. The problems and successes encountered in the recruitment process and selected results of the heating season measurements are summarized in the paper.

  2. Estimating annoyance to calculated wind turbine shadow flicker is improved when variables associated with wind turbine noise exposure are considered.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voicescu, Sonia A; Michaud, David S; Feder, Katya; Marro, Leonora; Than, John; Guay, Mireille; Denning, Allison; Bower, Tara; van den Berg, Frits; Broner, Norm; Lavigne, Eric

    2016-03-01

    The Community Noise and Health Study conducted by Health Canada included randomly selected participants aged 18-79 yrs (606 males, 632 females, response rate 78.9%), living between 0.25 and 11.22 km from operational wind turbines. Annoyance to wind turbine noise (WTN) and other features, including shadow flicker (SF) was assessed. The current analysis reports on the degree to which estimating high annoyance to wind turbine shadow flicker (HAWTSF) was improved when variables known to be related to WTN exposure were also considered. As SF exposure increased [calculated as maximum minutes per day (SFm)], HAWTSF increased from 3.8% at 0 ≤ SFm wind turbine-related features, concern for physical safety, and noise sensitivity. Reported dizziness was also retained in the final model at p = 0.0581. Study findings add to the growing science base in this area and may be helpful in identifying factors associated with community reactions to SF exposure from wind turbines.

  3. Comparison of different approaches of estimating effective dose from reported exposure data in 3D imaging with interventional fluoroscopy systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svalkvist, Angelica; Hansson, Jonny; Bâth, Magnus

    2014-03-01

    Three-dimensional (3D) imaging with interventional fluoroscopy systems is today a common examination. The examination includes acquisition of two-dimensional projection images, used to reconstruct section images of the patient. The aim of the present study was to investigate the difference in resulting effective dose obtained using different levels of complexity in calculations of effective doses from these examinations. In the study the Siemens Artis Zeego interventional fluoroscopy system (Siemens Medical Solutions, Erlangen, Germany) was used. Images of anthropomorphic chest and pelvis phantoms were acquired. The exposure values obtained were used to calculate the resulting effective doses from the examinations, using the computer software PCXMC (STUK, Helsinki, Finland). The dose calculations were performed using three different methods: 1. using individual exposure values for each projection image, 2. using the mean tube voltage and the total DAP value, evenly distributed over the projection images, and 3. using the mean kV and the total DAP value, evenly distributed over smaller selection of projection images. The results revealed that the difference in resulting effective dose between the first two methods was smaller than 5%. When only a selection of projection images were used in the dose calculations the difference increased to over 10%. Given the uncertainties associated with the effective dose concept, the results indicate that dose calculations based on average exposure values distributed over a smaller selection of projection angles can provide reasonably accurate estimations of the radiation doses from 3D imaging using interventional fluoroscopy systems.

  4. Terrestrial Gamma Radiation Exposure Measurement and Risk Estimates in the Environments of Major Industries In Ota, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abodunrin Oluwasayo Peter

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available When fast estimates are required, the in-situ method is more appropriate as this allows for quick results; preventing further exposure of the public and permitting quick intervention. Measurements of the terrestrial gamma radiation exposure have been carried out in the environments of major industries in Ota using a portable survey meter. The motivation for this study resulted from the uncertainty in the general public opinion on the effect of the presence, and activities of some of these industries in their environment. Measurements were taken twice daily within the vicinity of each industry to determine the dose levels. The mean values obtained range from 0.11 – 1.80 µSv/h. These values are within the results obtained from normal background areas except for site number 10. Annual effective dose values range from 0.25 – 5.21 mSv with a mean value of 1.21 mSv. Routine activities in some of these environments may have contributed significantly to the ambient natural background radiation resulting in high values as obtained in some of these locations. The total risks disparately estimated for cancer and genetic effects resulting from the results obtained range from 0.17 x 10-4 – 3.80 x 10-4 with a mean value of 0.94 x 10-4. These levels are within the range of the average annual risk for accidental death for all industries.

  5. Explicit formula of finite difference method to estimate human peripheral tissue temperatures during exposure to severe cold stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanday, M A; Hussain, Fida

    2015-02-01

    During cold exposure, peripheral tissues undergo vasoconstriction to minimize heat loss to preserve the maintenance of a normal core temperature. However, vasoconstricted tissues exposed to cold temperatures are susceptible to freezing and frostbite-related tissue damage. Therefore, it is imperative to establish a mathematical model for the estimation of tissue necrosis due to cold stress. To this end, an explicit formula of finite difference method has been used to obtain the solution of Pennes' bio-heat equation with appropriate boundary conditions to estimate the temperature profiles of dermal and subdermal layers when exposed to severe cold temperatures. The discrete values of nodal temperature were calculated at the interfaces of skin and subcutaneous tissues with respect to the atmospheric temperatures of 25 °C, 20 °C, 15 °C, 5 °C, -5 °C and -10 °C. The results obtained were used to identify the scenarios under which various degrees of frostbite occur on the surface of skin as well as the dermal and subdermal areas. The explicit formula of finite difference method proposed in this model provides more accurate predictions as compared to other numerical methods. This model of predicting tissue temperatures provides researchers with a more accurate prediction of peripheral tissue temperature and, hence, the susceptibility to frostbite during severe cold exposure.

  6. High Levels of Bisphenol A and Bisphenol S in Brazilian Thermal Paper Receipts and Estimation of Daily Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Bruno Alves; Azevedo, Lara Ferreira; Gallimberti, Matheus; Campiglia, Andres Dobal; Barbosa, Fernando

    2015-01-01

    Bisphenol A (BPA) is an endocrine and metabolic disruptor commonly employed as a color developer in thermal papers. Consequently, BPA derived from thermal papers has been considered an important source of exposure for humans, since this chemical may migrate from paper to skin upon contact. Further, due to recent restrictions on BPA use in some countries, it has been replaced by a new analogue, bisphenol S (BPS). The aim of the present study was to determine levels of BPA and BPS in 190 different thermal receipts, randomly collected from different locations in São Paulo State, Brazil, including receipts from supermarkets, general and fast-food restaurants, gas stations, bus and airplane tickets, and credit card and bank accounts. BPA and/or BPS were detected in 98% of samples at concentrations ranging from below the quantification limit to 4.3% (mg/100 mg paper). The obtained values were higher than amounts previously reported in other countries. The estimated daily intake through dermal absorption from handling of thermal receipt papers was estimated on the basis of concentrations and frequencies of handling of papers by humans in both the general population and occupationally exposed individuals. Fifth percentile, median, and 95th percentile daily intakes by the general population were 0.44, 1.42, and 2 μg/d, respectively, whereas the corresponding values for occupationally exposed population are 21.8, 71 and 101 μg/d. The potential adverse consequences of elevated occupational exposure are currently being examined.

  7. Cumulative risks of foster care placement for Danish children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Although recent research suggests that the cumulative risk of foster care placement is far higher for American children than originally suspected, little is known about the cumulative risk of foster care placement in other countries, which makes it difficult to gauge the degree to which factor foster care placement is salient in other contexts. In this article, we provide companion estimates to those provided in recent work on the US by using Danish registry data and synthetic cohort life tables to show how high and unequally distributed the cumulative risk of foster care placement is for Danish children. Results suggest that at the beginning of the study period (in 1998) the cumulative risk of foster care placement for Danish children was roughly in line with the risk for American children. Yet, by the end of the study period (2010), the risk had declined to half the risk for American children. Our results also show some variations by parental ethnicity and sex, but these differences are small. Indeed, they appear quite muted relative to racial/ethnic differences in these risks in the United States. Last, though cumulative risks are similar between Danish and American children (especially at the beginning of the study period), the age-specific risk profiles are markedly different, with higher risks for older Danish children than for older American children.

  8. Cumulative Incidence of Cancer After Solid Organ Transplantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Erin C.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Segev, Dorry L.; Engels, Eric A.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND Solid organ transplantation recipients have elevated cancer incidence. Estimates of absolute cancer risk after transplantation can inform prevention and screening. METHODS The Transplant Cancer Match Study links the US transplantation registry with 14 state/regional cancer registries. The authors used nonparametric competing risk methods to estimate the cumulative incidence of cancer after transplantation for 2 periods (1987–1999 and 2000–2008). For recipients from 2000 to 2008, the 5-year cumulative incidence, stratified by organ, sex, and age at transplantation, was estimated for 6 preventable or screen-detectable cancers. For comparison, the 5-year cumulative incidence was calculated for the same cancers in the general population at representative ages using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. RESULTS Among 164,156 recipients, 8520 incident cancers were identified. The absolute cancer risk was slightly higher for recipients during the period from 2000 to 2008 than during the period from 1987 to 1999 (5-year cumulative incidence: 4.4% vs 4.2%; P =.006); this difference arose from the decreasing risk of competing events (5-year cumulative incidence of death, graft failure, or retransplantation: 26.6% vs 31.9%; P 50 years; range, 0.36%–2.22%). For recipients aged >50 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence was higher for colorectal cancer (range, 0.33%–1.94%) than for the general population at the recommended screening age (aged 50 years: range, 0.25%–0.33%). For recipients aged >50 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence was high for lung cancer among thoracic organ recipients (range, 1.16%–3.87%) and for kidney cancer among kidney recipients (range, 0.53%–0.84%). The 5-year cumulative incidence for prostate cancer and breast cancer was similar or lower in transplantation recipients than at the recommended ages of screening in the general population. CONCLUSIONS Subgroups of transplantation recipients have a high absolute risk

  9. Estimation of desvenlafaxine transfer into milk and infant exposure during its use in lactating women with postnatal depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampono, Jonathan; Teoh, Stephanie; Hackett, L Peter; Kohan, Rolland; Ilett, Kenneth F

    2011-02-01

    This study characterises the extent of desvenlafaxine transfer into milk and provides data on infant exposure to desvenlafaxine via breast milk in ten women with postnatal depression and their breastfed infants. Desvenlafaxine concentration in milk and plasma was measured chromatographically in milk and in maternal and infant plasma collected at steady state. Theoretic and relative infant doses via milk were estimated and the per cent drug in infant versus mother's plasma was calculated. Theoretic infant dose via milk was 85 (53-117) μg kg(-1) day(-1) (mean and 95% confidence interval) and relative infant dose was 6.8% (5.5-8.1%). The ratio of drug in infant/maternal plasma also gave an infant exposure estimate of 4.8% (3.5-6.2%) for all ten infants and 5.3% (4.2-5.7%) in the eight infants who were exclusively breastfed. No adverse effects were seen in the infants. The relative infant dose was similar to that for previous studies using venlafaxine and was supported by a separate exposure measure using the ratio of drug in the infant's plasma relative to that in the mother's plasma. The theoretic infant dose of desvenlafaxine was 41-45% of that for venlafaxine and its metabolite desvenlafaxine in previous studies, reflecting the lower recommended maternal dose for desvenlafaxine. Although our data for desvenlafaxine use in lactation are encouraging and there are supporting data from venlafaxine studies, more patients and their infants need to be studied before the safety of desvenlafaxine as a single therapeutic agent can be fully assessed.

  10. Estimating Burden and Disease Costs of Exposure to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals in the European Union

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trasande, Leonardo; Zoeller, R. Thomas; Hass, Ulla

    2015-01-01

    Rapidly increasing evidence has documented that endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) contribute substantially to disease and disability. Objective: The objective was to quantify a range of health and economic costs that can be reasonably attributed to EDC exposures in the European Union (EU......). Design: A Steering Committee of scientists adapted the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change weight-of-evidence characterization for probability of causation based upon levels of available epidemiological and toxicological evidence for one or more chemicals contributing to disease by an endocrine...... Environmental Protection Agency for evaluating laboratory and animal evidence of endocrine disruption. Expert panels used the Delphi method to make decisions on the strength of the data. Results: Expert panels achieved consensus at least for probable (>20%) EDC causation for IQ loss and associated intellectual...

  11. Bulgarian Emergency Response System (BERS) in case of nuclear accident with exposure doses estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syrakov, D.; Prodanova, M.; Slavov, K.; Veleva, B.

    2015-07-01

    A PC-oriented Emergency Response System in case of nuclear accident (BERS) is developed and works operationally in the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH). The creation and development of BERS was highly stimulated by the ETEX (European Tracer Experiment) project. BERS comprises two main parts - the operational and the accidental ones. The operational part, run automatically every 12 hours, prepares the input meteorological file used by both trajectory and dispersion models, runs the trajectory models, visualizes the results and uploads the maps of trajectories to a dedicated web-site. The accidental part is activated manually when a real radioactive releases occur or during emergency exercises. Its core is the Bulgarian dispersion models EMAP. Outputs are concentration, accumulated deposition and selected doses fields. In the paper, the BERS overall structure is described and examples of its products are presented. Key words: nuclear accident, emergency response, early warning system, air dispersion models, radioactive exposure dose. (Author)

  12. Estimating photoreceptor excitations from spectral outputs of a personal light exposure measurement device.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Dingcai; Barrionuevo, Pablo A

    2015-03-01

    The intrinsic circadian clock requires photoentrainment to synchronize the 24-hour solar day. Therefore, light stimulation is an important component of chronobiological research. Currently, the chronobiological research field overwhelmingly uses photopic illuminance that is based on the luminous efficiency function, V(λ), to quantify light levels. However, recent discovery of intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells (ipRGCs), which are activated by self-contained melanopsin photopigment and also by inputs from rods and cones, makes light specification using a one-dimensional unit inadequate. Since the current understanding of how different photoreceptor inputs contribute to the circadian system through ipRGCs is limited, it is recommended to specify light in terms of the excitations of five photoreceptors (S-, M-, L-cones, rods and ipRGCs; Lucas et al., 2014). In the current study, we assessed whether the spectral outputs from a commercially available spectral watch (i.e. Actiwatch Spectrum) could be used to estimate photoreceptor excitations. Based on the color sensor spectral sensitivity functions from a previously published work, as well as from our measurements, we computed spectral outputs in the long-wavelength range (R), middle-wavelength range (G), short-wavelength range (B) and broadband range (W) under 52 CIE illuminants (25 daylight illuminants, 27 fluorescent lights). We also computed the photoreceptor excitations for each illuminant using human photoreceptor spectral sensitivity functions. Linear regression analyses indicated that the Actiwatch spectral outputs could predict photoreceptor excitations reliably, under the assumption of linear responses of the Actiwatch color sensors. In addition, R, G, B outputs could classify illuminant types (fluorescent versus daylight illuminants) satisfactorily. However, the assessment of actual Actiwatch recording under several testing light sources showed that the spectral outputs were subject to

  13. Estimation of the probability of exposure to machining fluids in a population-based case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Dong-Uk; Colt, Joanne S; Baris, Dalsu; Schwenn, Molly; Karagas, Margaret R; Armenti, Karla R; Johnson, Alison; Silverman, Debra T; Stewart, Patricia A

    2014-01-01

    We describe an approach for estimating the probability that study subjects were exposed to metalworking fluids (MWFs) in a population-based case-control study of bladder cancer. Study subject reports on the frequency of machining and use of specific MWFs (straight, soluble, and synthetic/semi-synthetic) were used to estimate exposure probability when available. Those reports also were used to develop estimates for job groups, which were then applied to jobs without MWF reports. Estimates using both cases and controls and controls only were developed. The prevalence of machining varied substantially across job groups (0.1->0.9%), with the greatest percentage of jobs that machined being reported by machinists and tool and die workers. Reports of straight and soluble MWF use were fairly consistent across job groups (generally 50-70%). Synthetic MWF use was lower (13-45%). There was little difference in reports by cases and controls vs. controls only. Approximately, 1% of the entire study population was assessed as definitely exposed to straight or soluble fluids in contrast to 0.2% definitely exposed to synthetic/semi-synthetics. A comparison between the reported use of the MWFs and U.S. production levels found high correlations (r generally >0.7). Overall, the method described here is likely to have provided a systematic and reliable ranking that better reflects the variability of exposure to three types of MWFs than approaches applied in the past. [Supplementary materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Journal of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene for the following free supplemental resources: a list of keywords in the occupational histories that were used to link study subjects to the metalworking fluids (MWFs) modules; recommendations from the literature on selection of MWFs based on type of machining operation, the metal being machined and decade; popular additives to MWFs; the number and proportion of controls who

  14. Quantitative ultraviolet skin exposure in children during selected outdoor activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melville, S K; Rosenthal, F S; Luckmann, R; Lew, R A

    1991-06-01

    We determined the cumulative exposure of 3 body sites to ultraviolet radiation from sunlight for 126 children observed from 1-3 d during a variety of common recreational activities at a girl scout camp, baseball camp and community baseball field. Median arm exposure to children playing baseball at a camp ranged from 27.6% to 33.2% of the possible ambient exposure. These exposures are similar to adult exposures reported for comparable activities. Median exposure to the arm at the girl scout camp during mixed activities ranged from 9.0% to 26.5% of possible ambient exposure. At the girl scout camp, exposure both within and between activity groups varied substantially and were more variable than the baseball players' exposure. Arm exposure was greater than cheek and forehead exposure for all subject groups, with an arm-to-cheek exposure ratio ranging from 1.7 to 2.3. For organized sports, such as baseball, it may be possible to assign a single exposure estimate for use in epidemiologic studies or risk estimates. However, for less uniform outdoor activities, wide variability in exposure makes it more difficult to predict an individual's exposure.

  15. Exposure of Secondary School Adolescents from Argentina and Mexico to Smoking Scenes in Movies: a Population-based Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    SALGADO, MARÍA V.; PÉREZ, ADRIANA; ABAD-VIVERO, ERIKA N.; THRASHER, JAMES F.; SARGENT, JAMES D.; MEJÍA, RAÚL

    2016-01-01

    Background Smoking scenes in movies promote adolescent smoking onset; thus, the analysis of the number of images of smoking in movies really reaching adolescents has become a subject of increasing interest. Objective The aim of this study was to estimate the level of exposure to images of smoking in movies watched by adolescents in Argentina and Mexico. Methods First-year secondary school students from Argentina and Mexico were surveyed. One hundred highest-grossing films from each year of the period 2009-2013 (Argentina) and 2010-2014 (Mexico) were analyzed. Each participant was assigned a random sample of 50 of these movies and was asked if he/she had watched them. The total number of adolescents who had watched each movie in each country was estimated and was multiplied by the number of smoking scenes (occurrences) in each movie to obtain the number of gross smoking impressions seen by secondary school adolescents from each country. Results Four-hundred and twenty-two movies were analyzed in Argentina and 433 in Mexico. Exposure to more than 500 million smoking impressions was estimated for adolescents in each country, averaging 128 and 121 minutes of smoking scenes seen by each Argentine and Mexican adolescent, respectively. Although 15, 16 and 18-rated movies had more smoking scenes in average, movies rated for younger teenagers were responsible for the highest number of smoking scenes watched by the students (67.3% in Argentina and 54.4% in Mexico) due to their larger audience. Conclusion At the population level, movies aimed at children are responsible for the highest tobacco burden seen by adolescents. PMID:27354756

  16. Asian Implications of Aflatoxin and Dioxin Foodborne Chemical Exposures Based on World Health Organization Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herman Gibb

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available All people need food. Unsafe foods; however, may cause diseases ranging from diarrhea to cancer. Chemicals in food are a worldwide health concern. In 2006, the World Health Organization (WHO organized a consultation on the global burden of foodborne diseases. Work to estimate this burden began in 2007 and was carried out by the WHO Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG, which included a Chemical and Toxins Disease Task Force. The results of 8 years of work were released in December 2015.

  17. Estimation of individual dust exposure by magnetopneumography in stainless steel production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huvinen, M; Oksanen, L; Kalliomäki, K; Kalliomäki, P L; Moilanen, M

    1997-06-20

    The objectives of the study were to measure the magnetic dust lung burden of workers in stainless steel production by magnetopneumography (MPG) and to investigate the relationship of the results with air-borne concentrations of dust, total and hexavalent chromium as well as urinary excretion of chromium. There were 128 workers from the chromite mine, sintering plant, ferrochrome smelter, stainless steel smelting shop, cold rolling mill and welding shop in the exposed groups and five persons from the office staff in the control group. The remanent magnetic field (RMF) in the lungs was slightly elevated among workers in the ferrochromium and steel smelting shops; the levels were, however, lower than those reported for welders earlier and those observed in the welding/repair shop. Workers in the mine, concentrator and sintering plants and in the cold rolling mill exhibited remanent magnetic fields comparable to the referents. There was a relationship between the RMF and the actual urinary chromium concentration. Miners and concentrator and sintering plant workers showed retarded relaxation rate (ReR) of the remanent magnetic field. However, the RMF of the first two of these groups were low (< 0.1 nT) and this made it difficult to measure the ReR accurately. The duration of exposure correlated weakly but significantly with the relaxation rate, while smoking was not related to it.

  18. Temporal evolution of risk estimates for presumed human teratogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koebert, M K; Haun, J M; Pauli, R M

    1993-01-01

    We present preliminary data assessing a previously untried method of deriving estimates of risk from case reports on presumed human teratogens. We postulated that we could take advantage of biases inherent to case reports in order to generate one or more families of temporal curves that could be used to estimate the "true" risk of teratogenic exposure. Using this method (which we refer to as the "case-cumulative method") we found that two agents (parvovirus B19 and isotretinoin) demonstrated a logarithmic decrease in the estimated risk over time, as intuitively expected, while trimethadione and the coumarin derivatives showed a more complex pattern over time. Analysis of estimated risks quoted by reviews and large studies for these four agents showed large variability from estimate to estimate and no discernible temporal pattern. With further analysis of other agents, the case-cumulative method might eventually prove to be useful in teratogen counseling.

  19. Estimation of radiation exposure of retrospective gated and prospective triggered 128-slice triple-rule-out CT angiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ketelsen, Dominik; Fenchel, Michael; Thomas, Christoph; Boehringer, Nadine; Tsiflikas, Ilias; Kaempf, Michael; Claussen, Claus D; Heuschmid, Martin (Dept. of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Univ. Hospital Tuebingen, Tuebingen (Germany)), email: dominik.ketelsen@med.uni-tuebingen.de; Buchgeister, Markus (Depts. of Radiotherapy and Radiooncology, Univ. Hospital Tuebingen, Tuebingen (Germany))

    2011-09-15

    Background: CT has become an important role in the differential diagnosis of acute chest pain to exclude an aortic dissection, pulmonary embolism and acute coronary artery syndrome. However, the additional radiation exposure is a cause of concern and dose saving strategies should be applied, if possible. Purpose: To estimate effective dose of retrospective gated and prospective ECG-triggered triple-rule-out computed tomography angiography (TRO-CTA). Material and Methods: An Alderson-Rando-phantom equipped with thermoluminescent dosimeters was used for dose measurements. Exposure was performed on a 128-slice single source scanner. The following scan parameters were used (retrospective ECG-gated): 120 kV, 190 mAs/rot., collimation 128x0.6 mm, rotation time 0.3 s. Protocols with a simulated heart rate (HR) of 60 and 100 bpm were performed using the standard ECG-pulsing as well as MinDose. Additionally, a prospective triggered TRO-CTA was acquired (HR 60 bpm). Results: The estimated effective dose of retrospective ECG-gated TRO-CTA ranged from 7.4-13.4 mSv and from 10.1-17.5 mSv for men and women, respectively. Due to radiosensitive breast tissue, women received a significant increased effective dose of up to 64.7% +- 0.03% (p = 0.028) compared to men. MinDose reduces radiation exposure of up to 33.0% +- 6.5% in comparison to standard ECG-pulsing (p < 0.001). The effective dose increased significantly with lower heart rates (p < 0.001). Prospective ECG-triggered TRO-CTA showed an effective dose of 5.9 mSv and 8.2 mSv for men and women, respectively. Compared to retrospective ECG-gated TRO-CTA a significant dose reduction was observed (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Due to the significant different dose exposure, scan protocols should be specifically adapted in a patient- and problem-oriented manner

  20. Biased Exposure-Health Effect Estimates from Selection in Cohort Studies: Are Environmental Studies at Particular Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisskopf, Marc G; Sparrow, David; Hu, Howard; Power, Melinda C

    2015-11-01

    The process of creating a cohort or cohort substudy may induce misleading exposure-health effect associations through collider stratification bias (i.e., selection bias) or bias due to conditioning on an intermediate. Studies of environmental risk factors may be at particular risk. We aimed to demonstrate how such biases of the exposure-health effect association arise and how one may mitigate them. We used directed acyclic graphs and the example of bone lead and mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular, and ischemic heart disease) among 835 white men in the Normative Aging Study (NAS) to illustrate potential bias related to recruitment into the NAS and the bone lead substudy. We then applied methods (adjustment, restriction, and inverse probability of attrition weighting) to mitigate these biases in analyses using Cox proportional hazards models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Analyses adjusted for age at bone lead measurement, smoking, and education among all men found HRs (95% CI) for the highest versus lowest tertile of patella lead of 1.34 (0.90, 2.00), 1.46 (0.86, 2.48), and 2.01 (0.86, 4.68) for all-cause, cardiovascular, and ischemic heart disease mortality, respectively. After applying methods to mitigate the biases, the HR (95% CI) among the 637 men analyzed were 1.86 (1.12, 3.09), 2.47 (1.23, 4.96), and 5.20 (1.61, 16.8), respectively. Careful attention to the underlying structure of the observed data is critical to identifying potential biases and methods to mitigate them. Understanding factors that influence initial study participation and study loss to follow-up is critical. Recruitment of population-based samples and enrolling participants at a younger age, before the potential onset of exposure-related health effects, can help reduce these potential pitfalls. Weisskopf MG, Sparrow D, Hu H, Power MC. 2015. Biased exposure-health effect estimates from selection in cohort studies: are environmental studies at

  1. Radon Exposure Assessment and Relative Effective Dose Estimation to Inhabitants of Puglia Region, South Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quarto, Maria; Pugliese, Mariagabriella; La Verde, Giuseppe; Loffredo, Filomena; Roca, Vincenzo

    2015-01-01

    Indoor radon concentrations were measured in dwellings of the Puglia region in Southern Italy using LR-115 passive detectors. The results show that the radon concentrations varied from 15 ± 2 to 2166 ± 133 Bq/m3 with a geometric mean of 114 Bq/m3 and a geometric standard deviation of 2.3. An analysis on the factors affecting radon concentration such as age of the dwellings, floors, and stories, was performed. The mean effective dose to inhabitants has been calculated and found to be 8.2 mSv/y. Finally, for estimation of cancer risks, the lifetime risk and lung cancer cases per years per million have been calculated. PMID:26610543

  2. Dose-to-the-population exposure estimates for use of plutonium-238-powered artificial hearts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKee, R.W.; Clark, L.L.; Cole, B.M.

    1976-09-01

    Estimates of dose to the population from /sup 238/Pu-powered artificial hearts were developed using a calculational model called REPRIEVE. This model develops the projected user population by incorporating assumptions regarding future heart disease death rates, the fraction dying who would be eligible candidates for artificial hearts, population projections, beginning implant rates, death rates after implant due to natural causes, and deaths caused by device failure. The user population was characterized by age, sex, household description, employment status and occupation. Census data on household descriptions and special surveys in selected cities provided the information necessary to describe persons exposed during both household and public activities. These surveys further defined distance and time of contact factors for these persons. Calculations using a dosemetry computer code defined the relationships between distance and dose. The validity of these calculations has been substantiated by experimental measurements.

  3. Assessment of the effect of population and diary sampling methods on estimation of school-age children exposure to fine particles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che, W W; Frey, H Christopher; Lau, Alexis K H

    2014-12-01

    Population and diary sampling methods are employed in exposure models to sample simulated individuals and their daily activity on each simulation day. Different sampling methods may lead to variations in estimated human exposure. In this study, two population sampling methods (stratified-random and random-random) and three diary sampling methods (random resampling, diversity and autocorrelation, and Markov-chain cluster [MCC]) are evaluated. Their impacts on estimated children's exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) are quantified via case studies for children in Wake County, NC for July 2002. The estimated mean daily average exposure is 12.9 μg/m(3) for simulated children using the stratified population sampling method, and 12.2 μg/m(3) using the random sampling method. These minor differences are caused by the random sampling among ages within census tracts. Among the three diary sampling methods, there are differences in the estimated number of individuals with multiple days of exposures exceeding a benchmark of concern of 25 μg/m(3) due to differences in how multiday longitudinal diaries are estimated. The MCC method is relatively more conservative. In case studies evaluated here, the MCC method led to 10% higher estimation of the number of individuals with repeated exposures exceeding the benchmark. The comparisons help to identify and contrast the capabilities of each method and to offer insight regarding implications of method choice. Exposure simulation results are robust to the two population sampling methods evaluated, and are sensitive to the choice of method for simulating longitudinal diaries, particularly when analyzing results for specific microenvironments or for exposures exceeding a benchmark of concern.

  4. Position of cytogenetic examination of cosmonauts for the space radiation exposure estimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snigiryova, Galina; Novitskaya, Natalia; Fedorenko, Boris

    The cytogenetic monitoring was carried out to evaluate of radiation induced stable and un-stable chromosome aberration frequency in peripheral blood lymphocytes of cosmonauts who participated in flights on Mir Orbital Station and ISS (International Space Station). In the period of 1992 -2008 chromosome aberrations in 202 blood samples from 48 cosmonauts were analyzed using the conventional method. In addition 23 blood samples from 12 cosmonauts were analyzed using FISH (fluorescence in situ hybridization) technique. Whole chromosome painting probes for chromosomes 1, 4 and 12 were used simultaneously with a pancentromeric probe. Samples taken before and after the flights were analyzed. Long-term space flights led to an increase of stable (FISH method) and unstable (conventional method) chromosome aber-ration frequencies. The frequencies of dicentrics and centric rings depend on the space flight duration and accumulated dose value. Extravehicular activity also adds to chromosome aber-ration frequency in blood lymphocytes of cosmonauts. Several years after the space flight the increased level of unstable chromosome aberrations is still apparent. The radiation load was decreased for cosmonauts after taking ISS over from MIR station. The cytogenetic results were in agreement with data of physical dosimetry. The dose interval after the first flight, estimated by the frequency of dicentrics, was 113-227 mSv for long-term flights (73 -199 days) and 53-107 mSv for short-term flights (1 -21 days). According to the frequency of FISH translocations, the average dose after the first long-term flight was 186 mSv, which is comparable with estimates made from the dicentric assay. Cytogenetic examination of cosmonauts, including analysis of dicentrics (conventional method) and translocations (FISH method) should find wider applica-tion to assessment of radiation effects associated with long-term space flights such as flights to Mars.

  5. Surgery for subacromial impingement syndrome in relation to occupational exposures, lifestyle factors and diabetes mellitus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalbøge, Annett; Frost, Poul; Andersen, Johan Hviid

    2017-01-01

    intensities on measurement scales. Ten-year cumulative exposures to upper arm elevation >90°, repetitive shoulder movements, forceful shoulder exertions and hand-arm vibrations (HAVs) were estimated. We used conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: There were 5396 persons (60%) who answered the questionnaire...

  6. Can commercial low-cost sensor platforms contribute to air quality monitoring and exposure estimates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castell, Nuria; Dauge, Franck R; Schneider, Philipp; Vogt, Matthias; Lerner, Uri; Fishbain, Barak; Broday, David; Bartonova, Alena

    2017-02-01

    The emergence of low-cost, user-friendly and very compact air pollution platforms enable observations at high spatial resolution in near-real-time and provide new opportunities to simultaneously enhance existing monitoring systems, as well as engage citizens in active environmental monitoring. This provides a whole new set of capabilities in the assessment of human exposure to air pollution. However, the data generated by these platforms are often of questionable quality. We have conducted an exhaustive evaluation of 24 identical units of a commercial low-cost sensor platform against CEN (European Standardization Organization) reference analyzers, evaluating their measurement capability over time and a range of environmental conditions. Our results show that their performance varies spatially and temporally, as it depends on the atmospheric composition and the meteorological conditions. Our results show that the performance varies from unit to unit, which makes it necessary to examine the data quality of each node before its use. In general, guidance is lacking on how to test such sensor nodes and ensure adequate performance prior to marketing these platforms. We have implemented and tested diverse metrics in order to assess if the sensor can be employed for applications that require high accuracy (i.e., to meet the Data Quality Objectives defined in air quality legislation, epidemiological studies) or lower accuracy (i.e., to represent the pollution level on a coarse scale, for purposes such as awareness raising). Data quality is a pertinent concern, especially in citizen science applications, where citizens are collecting and interpreting the data. In general, while low-cost platforms present low accuracy for regulatory or health purposes they can provide relative and aggregated information about the observed air quality.

  7. Human exposure to PCBs, PBDEs and HBCDs in Ghana: Temporal variation, sources of exposure and estimation of daily intakes by infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asante, Kwadwo Ansong; Adu-Kumi, Sam; Nakahiro, Kenta; Takahashi, Shin; Isobe, Tomohiko; Sudaryanto, Agus; Devanathan, Gnanasekaran; Clarke, Edith; Ansa-Asare, Osmund Duodu; Dapaah-Siakwan, Stephen; Tanabe, Shinsuke

    2011-07-01

    Human exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and brominated flame retardants (BFRs) such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs) was evaluated in Ghana using breast milk samples collected in 2004 and 2009. Mean levels and ranges of PBDEs (4.5; 0.86-18 ng/g lw) and PCBs (62; 15-160 ng/g lw) observed in the present study were unexpectedly high, in spite of the fact that Ghana is a non-industrialized country when compared with many of the Asian and European countries. Significant increases were found in the concentrations of PCBs and PBDEs over the years, while no significant increase was observed for HBCDs. Estimated hazard quotient (HQ) showed that all the mothers had HQ values exceeding the threshold of 1 for PCBs, indicating potential health risk for their children. PCBs in dirty oils and obsolete equipment should be of concern as potential sources in Ghana, and e-waste recycling with little or no experience in safe handling could be a threat to this sub-region noted for unregulated disposal of e-waste. The results may point towards an increase in trends in human milk in Ghana, especially in the larger cities but further analysis would be required to confirm this upward trend in levels. This is the first study to report BFRs in human breast milk from Africa, and undoubtedly from Ghana.

  8. 职业性噪声聋的发生、发展规律及与累积噪声暴露剂量的关系研究%The occurrence and development of occupational noise deafness and its relationship with the cumulative noise exposure dose

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王雪琴

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To analyze and investigate the occurrence and development of occupational noise deafness and its re-lationship with the cumulative noise exposure dose (CNE).Methods:Randomly selecting a city and medium-sized enterprises 120 workers and management are as the research object, to the enterprise operating environment noise monitoring, investigation object were measured by pure tone threshold audiometry, calculating the cumulative noise exposure, to investigate the occurrence and occupational noise induced hearing loss.Results: The noise pressure level of the examination site was higher than that in other places; when the CNE increases, high-frequency loss, language frequency loss detection rate had significant difference; oc-cupational noise induced deafness related to rate and development and CNE, to 100 dB (a) years as threshold.Conclusion:The cumulative noise exposure dose and occupational noise induced deafness, the law of development there is a certain relationship, early detection threshold anomaly or high frequency audibility threshold change of patients,, improve efficiency and patient quality of life.%目的:分析和探讨职业性噪声聋的发生、发展规律及与累积噪声暴露剂量(CNE)的关系。方法随机选取某城市中型企业中120名工人及管理者作为研究对象,对企业作业环境噪音进行监测,组织调查对象进行纯音听阈测定,计算累积噪声暴露剂量,探讨与职业性噪声聋的发生、发展规律的关系。结果检查现场噪声声压级均高于其他场所;当CNE升高时,高频损失、语频损失检出率差异明显;职业性噪声聋发生率及发展与CNE有关,以100dB(A)年为阈值。结论累积噪声暴露剂量与职业性噪声聋的发生、发展规律存在一定的关系,早期发现听阈异常或高频听阈改变的患者,及时控制职业噪音暴露量,并按规定调离噪声作业岗位,避免病情进一步发展,提高患者工作效率和生活质量。

  9. Variations in exposure to inhalable wood dust in the Danish furniture industry. Within- and between-worker and factory components estimated from passive dust sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinzents, P S; Schlünssen, V; Feveile, H; Schaumburg, I

    2001-10-01

    Variability of exposure to wood dust at large factories in the Danish furniture industry was studied. Three repeated exposure measurements of 292 workers at 38 factories were included in the study. The measurements were carried out by use of personal passive dust monitors. The components of variance were estimated by means of a random effects ANOVA model. The ratio of within- to between-worker variance was 1.07. Based on this result, and three repeated exposure measurements, the observed relation between health outcome and exposure will be attenuated to 74% of the true value. Grouping by factory showed very poor exposure contrast, as the contrast in exposure level among factories was as low as 0.15.

  10. Model estimates of the contributions of environmental tobacco smoke to volatile organic compound exposures in office buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daisey, J.M.; Gadgil, A.; Hodgson, A.T.

    1990-01-01

    Volatile organic compounds (VOC) in office buildings originate from multiple sources, such as outdoor air, building materials, occupants, office supplies, and office equipment. Many of the VOC found in office buildings are also present in environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), e.g., benzene, toluene, formaldehyde. Measurements made to date in Office buildings have been interpreted by some to imply that the contributions to ETS to VOC exposures in office buildings are small. Four different ventilation-infiltration scenarios were modeled for a typical office building. The purpose of this investigation was to provide first-order estimate of the range of contributions of ETS to VOC contributions in office buildings under various ventilation conditions through the use of a mass-balance model and to evaluate the significance of such contributions relative to the VOC concentration measured in office buildings. 25 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

  11. Improving substance information in usetox®, part 2: Data for estimating fate and ecosystem exposure factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saouter, Erwan; Aschberger, Karin; Fantke, Peter

    2017-01-01

    . These regulations require that a chemical risk assessment for humans and the environment is performed before a chemical is placed on the European market. Consequently, additional physicochemical property data and new toxicological end-points are now available for thousands of chemical substances. The aim.......01 and 2.0 is the Estimation Program Interface (EPI SuiteTM ) from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. However, since the development of the original USEtox® substance databases, new chemical regulations have been enforced in Europe such as the REACH and the Plant Protection Products regulations...... of the present study is to explore to which extent the new available data can be used as input for USEtox® - especially for application in Environmental Footprint studies - and to discuss how this would influence the quantification of fate and exposure factors. Initial results show that the choice of data source...

  12. Estimating the value of a Country's built assets: investment-based exposure modelling for global risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Pomonis, Antonios; Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Gaspari, Maria; Lu, Xijie; Aubrecht, Christoph; Ungar, Joachim

    2017-04-01

    In order to quantify disaster risk, there is a demand and need for determining consistent and reliable economic value of built assets at national or sub national level exposed to natural hazards. The value of the built stock in the context of a city or a country is critical for risk modelling applications as it allows for the upper bound in potential losses to be established. Under the World Bank probabilistic disaster risk assessment - Country Disaster Risk Profiles (CDRP) Program and rapid post-disaster loss analyses in CATDAT, key methodologies have been developed that quantify the asset exposure of a country. In this study, we assess the complementary methods determining value of building stock through capital investment data vs aggregated ground up values based on built area and unit cost of construction analyses. Different approaches to modelling exposure around the world, have resulted in estimated values of built assets of some countries differing by order(s) of magnitude. Using the aforementioned methodology of comparing investment data based capital stock and bottom-up unit cost of construction values per square meter of assets; a suitable range of capital stock estimates for built assets have been created. A blind test format was undertaken to compare the two types of approaches from top-down (investment) and bottom-up (construction cost per unit), In many cases, census data, demographic, engineering and construction cost data are key for bottom-up calculations from previous years. Similarly for the top-down investment approach, distributed GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) data is also required. Over the past few years, numerous studies have been undertaken through the World Bank Caribbean and Central America disaster risk assessment program adopting this methodology initially developed by Gunasekera et al. (2015). The range of values of the building stock is tested for around 15 countries. In addition, three types of costs - Reconstruction cost

  13. Migration modelling from food-contact plastics into foodstuffs as a new tool for consumer exposure estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, R

    2005-10-01

    One important aspect within the European Union's public healthcare is the exposure of consumers to undesirable chemicals in the diet. Food-contact materials (FCM) are one potential contamination source and therefore of particular interest for food exposure assessment. On the other hand, scientific investigations concerning the migration potential and behaviour of food-packaging materials have demonstrated that diffusion in and migration from FCM are foreseeable physical and, in principle, mathematically describable processes. Because of this situation and the current state-of-the-art in migration science, a research project was initiated within the 5th Framework Programme of the European Commission. This project, with the acronym 'FOODMIGROSURE' (European Union Contract No. 'QLK1-CT2002-2390') started on 1 March 2003, was due to last 3 years and had the participation of nine European project partners (see the project website: www.foodmigrosure.org). The aim of the project was to extend currently existing migration models (which have been demonstrated to be applicable for less complex matrices such as food simulants) to foodstuffs themselves. In this way, the project aims to provide a novel and economic tool for estimation of consumer exposure to chemicals migrating from food-contact plastic materials under any actual contact conditions. In addition, the project aims to increase knowledge of the mechanisms of diffusion of organic compounds in foodstuffs and provide data on the partitioning effects between FCM and foods. Today the latter aspect is increasingly regarded as a fundamental influence parameter for migration into foods. Based on the project achievements, a much better scientific basis is available to allow scientifically appropriate amendments of European Union Directive 85/572/EEC as well as to support further developments with the so-called Plastics Directive 2002/72/EC. The paper introduces the project and presents an overview of the project work

  14. Estimates of potential childhood lead exposure from contaminated soil using the US EPA IEUBK Model in Sydney, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laidlaw, Mark A S; Mohmmad, Shaike M; Gulson, Brian L; Taylor, Mark P; Kristensen, Louise J; Birch, Gavin

    2017-07-01

    Surface soils in portions of the Sydney (New South Wales, Australia) urban area are contaminated with lead (Pb) primarily from past use of Pb in gasoline, the deterioration of exterior lead-based paints, and industrial activities. Surface soil samples (n=341) were collected from a depth of 0-2.5cm at a density of approximately one sample per square kilometre within the Sydney estuary catchment and analysed for lead. The bioaccessibility of soil Pb was analysed in 18 samples. The blood lead level (BLL) of a hypothetical 24 month old child was predicted at soil sampling sites in residential and open land use using the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) Integrated Exposure Uptake and Biokinetic (IEUBK) model. Other environmental exposures used the Australian National Environmental Protection Measure (NEPM) default values. The IEUBK model predicted a geometric mean BLL of 2.0±2.1µg/dL using measured soil lead bioavailability measurements (bioavailability =34%) and 2.4±2.8µg/dL using the Australian NEPM default assumption (bioavailability =50%). Assuming children were present and residing at the sampling locations, the IEUBK model incorporating soil Pb bioavailability predicted that 5.6% of the children at the sampling locations could potentially have BLLs exceeding 5µg/dL and 2.1% potentially could have BLLs exceeding 10µg/dL. These estimations are consistent with BLLs previously measured in children in Sydney. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Blood, breast milk and urine: potential biomarkers of exposure and estimated daily intake of ochratoxin A: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto, Julia Bellver; Ruiz, María-José; Manyes, Lara; Juan-García, Ana

    2016-01-01

    The purposes of this review are to study potential biomarkers of exposure for ochratoxin A (OTA) in biological fluids (blood, urine and breast milk) for the period 2005-14, calculate the estimated daily intake (EDI) of OTA by using database consumption for the Spanish population, and, finally, to correlate OTA levels detected in blood and EDI values calculated from food products. The values of OTA detected in potential biomarkers of exposure for blood, breast milk and urine ranged from 0.15 to 18.0, from 0.002 to 13.1, and from 0.013 to 0.2 ng ml(-1), respectively. The calculated EDI for OTA in plasma ranged from 0.15 to 26 ng kg(-1) bw day(-1), higher than that obtained in urine (0.017-0.4 ng kg(-1) bw day(-1)). All these values are correlated with the range of EDI for OTA calculated from food products: 0.0001-25.2 ng kg(-1) bw day(-1).

  16. Cancer incidence and mortality from exposure to radon progeny among Ontario uranium miners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navaranjan, Garthika; Berriault, Colin; Do, Minh; Villeneuve, Paul J; Demers, Paul A

    2016-12-01

    The study objectives were to extend the follow-up of the Ontario uranium miners cohort, one of the largest cohorts of uranium miners with low cumulative exposures, to examine the relationship between radon exposure and lung cancer mortality and, for the first time incidence, and address gaps in the literature, including dose-response relationship between radon exposure and other cancer sites, and non-cancer mortality. The cohort of mine and mill workers was created using data from Canada's National Dose Registry and the Ontario Mining Master File. The follow-up for the cohort was recently extended for mortality (1954-2007) and for the first time includes cancer incidence (1969-2005). The Poisson regression was used to estimate relative risks (RR) and excess relative risks (ERR) and their 95% CIs with levels of cumulative radon exposure. The cohort consisted of 28 546 male miners with a mean cumulative radon exposure of 21.0 working level months (WLM). An increased risk of lung cancer and a dose-response relationship was observed with cumulative radon exposure. Miners exposed to >100 WLM demonstrated a twofold increase in the risk of lung cancer incidence (RR=1.89, CI 1.43 to 2.50) compared with the non-exposed group, and a linear ERR of 0.64/100 WLM (CI 0.43 to 0.85), with similar results observed for mortality. No association was observed for other cancer sites (stomach, leukaemia, kidney and extrathoracic airways) or non-cancer sites (cardiovascular diseases) with increasing cumulative exposure to radon. These findings suggest no increased risk of cancer sites other than lung or non-cancer mortality from relatively low cumulative exposure to radon. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  17. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret M. MacDonell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

  18. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonell, Margaret M.; Haroun, Lynne A.; Teuschler, Linda K.; Rice, Glenn E.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Butler, James P.; Chang, Young-Soo; Clark, Shanna L.; Johns, Alan P.; Perry, Camarie S.; Garcia, Shannon S.; Jacobi, John H.; Scofield, Marcienne A.

    2013-01-01

    The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) environmental fate and transport; (3) exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4) toxicity analysis; and (5) risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities. PMID:23762048

  19. Estimating building exposure and impact to volcanic hazards in Icod de los Vinos, Tenerife (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marti, J.; Spence, R.; Calogero, E.; Ordoñez, A.; Felpeto, A.; Baxter, P.

    2008-12-01

    Principal and subsidiary building structure characteristics and their distribution have been inventoried in Icod, Tenerife (Canary Islands) and used to evaluate the vulnerability of individual buildings to three volcanic hazards: tephra fallout, volcanogenic earthquakes and pyroclastic flows. The procedures described in this paper represent a methodological framework for a comprehensive survey of all the buildings at risk in the area around the Teide volcano in Tenerife. Such a methodology would need to be implemented for the completion of a comprehensive risk assessment for the populations under threat of explosive eruptions in this area. The information presented in the paper is a sample of the necessary data required for the impact estimation and risk assessment exercises that would need to be carried out by emergency managers, local authorities and those responsible for recovery and repair in the event of a volcanic eruption. The data shows there are micro variations in building stock characteristics that would influence the likely impact of an eruption in the area. As an example of the use of this methodology for vulnerability assessment, we have applied a deterministic simulation model of a volcanic eruption from Teide volcano and its associated ash fallout which, when combined with the vulnerability data collected, allows us to obtain the vulnerability map of the studied area. This map is obtained by performing spatial analysis with a Geographical Information System (GIS). This vulnerability analysis is included in the framework of an automatic information system specifically developed for hazard assessment and risk management on Tenerife, but which can be also applied to other volcanic areas. The work presented is part of the EU-funded EXPLORIS project (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).

  20. A model to estimate the oestrogen receptor mediated effects from exposure to soy isoflavones in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safford, Bob; Dickens, Andrea; Halleron, Nadine; Briggs, David; Carthew, Philip; Baker, Valerie

    2003-10-01

    The advantages that regular consumption of a diet containing soy may have on human health have been enshrined in a major health claim that has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration in the USA, regarding potential protection from heart disease by soy. This could have a major influence on the dietary consumption patterns of soy for consumers and lead to the development of soy enriched foods to enable consumers to achieve the benefits thought to be associated with increased soy consumption in a Western diet. If an increase in soy consumption is beneficial to particular disease conditions, there is always the possibility that there will be effects other than those that are desirable. For soy-containing foods there has been concern that the phytoestrogen content of soy, which is composed of several isoflavones, could be a separate health issue, due to the oestrogen-like activity of isoflavones. To address this, a method has been developed to estimate, relative to 17-beta oestradiol, the activity of the common isoflavones present in soy phytoestrogens, based on their binding to and transcriptional activation of the major oestrogen receptor sub-types alpha and beta. Using this approach, the additional oestrogen-like activity that would be expected from inclusion of soy supplemented foodstuffs in a Western diet, can be determined for different sub-populations, who may have different susceptibilities to the potential for the unwanted biological effects occurring with consumption of soy enriched foods. Because of the theoretical nature of this model, and the controversy over the nature of whether some of the oestrogen-like effects of phytoestrogens are adverse, the biological effects of soy isoflavones and their potential for adverse effects in man, is also reviewed. The question that is critical to the long term safe use of foods enriched in soy is, which observed biological effects in animal studies are likely to also occur in man and whether these would have

  1. Cumulative family risks across income levels predict deterioration of children's general health during childhood and adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yi-Ching; Seo, Dong-Chul

    2017-01-01

    Family is considered an important agent in the health development of children. This process is significant but quite complex because the prevalence of potential risk factors in the family can hinder children's health. This study examined if multiple family risks might have cumulative effect on children and youth's health across various levels of household income. The data in this study were drawn from the 2011-2012 U.S. National Survey of Children's Health (N = 79,601). A cumulative family risk (CFR) index was developed, which included such constructs as single-parenthood, unstable employment, large family, parenting stress, poor maternal education, poor maternal general health and poor maternal mental health. Multiple logistic regression analyses showed that CFR level was significantly related to children and youth's poor health outcome (p families than on those from poor families. Overall there was a consistent pattern of trend in the point estimate as well as confidence limits as levels of affluence and numbers of family risk increased although some of the confidence intervals overlapped. Living in disadvantaged families might serve as a protective factor against CFRs possibly through repeated exposure to hardships and subsequent formation of resilience among some of the disadvantaged children.

  2. Cumulate Fragments in Silicic Ignimbrites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, O.; Ellis, B. S.; Wolff, J.

    2014-12-01

    Increasingly, studies are concluding that silicic ignimbrites are the result of the amalgamation of multiple discrete magma batches. Yet the existence of discrete batches presents a conundrum for magma generation and storage; if silicic magma batches are not generated nearly in situ in the upper crust, they must traverse, and reside within, a thermally hostile environment with large temperature gradients, resulting in low survivability in their shallow magmatic hearths. The Snake River Plain (Idaho, USA) is a type example of this 'multi-batch' assembly with ignimbrites containing multiple populations of pyroxene crystals, glass shards, and crystal aggregates. The ubiquitous crystal aggregates hint at a mechanism to facilitate the existence of multiple, relatively small batches of rhyolite in the upper crust. These aggregates contain the same plagioclase, pyroxene, and oxide mineral compositions as single phenocrysts of the same minerals in their host rocks, but they have significantly less silicic bulk compositions and lack quartz and sanidine, which occur as single phenocrysts in the deposits. This implies significant crystallization followed by melt extraction from mushy reservoir margins. The extracted melt then continues to evolve (crystallizing sanidine and quartz) while the melt-depleted margins provide an increasingly rigid and refractory network segregating the crystal-poor batches of magma. The hot, refractory, margins insulate the crystal-poor lenses, allowing (1) extended residence in the upper crust, and (2) preservation of chemical heterogeneities among batches. In contrast, systems that produce cumulates richer in low-temperature phases (quartz, K-feldspars, and/or biotite) favour remelting upon recharge, leading to less segregation of eruptible melt pockets and the formation of gradationally zoned ignimbrites. The occurrence of similar crystal aggregates from a variety of magmatic lineages suggests the generality of this process.

  3. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact...

  4. Back-extrapolating a land use regression model for estimating past exposures to traffic-related air pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Ilan; Levin, Noam; Yuval; Schwartz, Joel D; Kark, Jeremy D

    2015-03-17

    Land use regression (LUR) models rely on air pollutant measurements for their development, and are therefore limited to recent periods where such measurements are available. Here we propose an approach to overcome this gap and calculate LUR models several decades before measurements were available. We first developed a LUR model for NOx using annual averages of NOx at all available air quality monitoring sites in Israel between 1991 and 2011 with time as one of the independent variables. We then reconstructed historical spatial data (e.g., road network) from historical topographic maps to apply the model's prediction to each year from 1961 to 2011. The model's predictions were then validated against independent estimates about the national annual NOx emissions from on-road vehicles in a top-down approach. The model's cross validated R2 was 0.74, and the correlation between the model's annual averages and the national annual NOx emissions between 1965 and 2011 was 0.75. Information about the road network and population are persistent predictors in many LUR models. The use of available historical data about these predictors to resolve the spatial variability of air pollutants together with complementary national estimates on the change in pollution levels over time enable historical reconstruction of exposures.

  5. Cumulative Prevalence of Psychiatric Disorders by Young Adulthood: A Prospective Cohort Analysis From the Great Smoky Mountains Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, William; Shanahan, Lilly; Costello, E. Jane; Angold, Adrian

    2011-01-01

    Objective: No longitudinal studies beginning in childhood have estimated the cumulative prevalence of psychiatric illness from childhood into young adulthood. The objective of this study was to estimate the cumulative prevalence of psychiatric disorders by young adulthood and to assess how inclusion of not otherwise specified diagnoses affects…

  6. Estimating cancer risk in relation to tritium exposure from routine operation of a nuclear-generating station in Pickering, Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanigaratne, S; Holowaty, E; Jiang, H; Norwood, T A; Pietrusiak, M A; Brown, P

    2013-09-01

    Evidence suggests that current levels of tritium emissions from CANDU reactors in Canada are not related to adverse health effects. However, these studies lack tritium-specific dose data and have small numbers of cases. The purpose of our study was to determine whether tritium emitted from a nuclear-generating station during routine operation is associated with risk of cancer in Pickering, Ontario. A retrospective cohort was formed through linkage of Pickering and north Oshawa residents (1985) to incident cancer cases (1985-2005). We examined all sites combined, leukemia, lung, thyroid and childhood cancers (6-19 years) for males and females as well as female breast cancer. Tritium estimates were based on an atmospheric dispersion model, incorporating characteristics of annual tritium emissions and meteorology. Tritium concentration estimates were assigned to each cohort member based on exact location of residence. Person-years analysis was used to determine whether observed cancer cases were higher than expected. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine whether tritium was associated with radiation-sensitive cancers in Pickering. Person-years analysis showed female childhood cancer cases to be significantly higher than expected (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] = 1.99, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-3.38). The issue of multiple comparisons is the most likely explanation for this finding. Cox models revealed that female lung cancer was significantly higher in Pickering versus north Oshawa (HR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.23-4.46) and that tritium was not associated with increased risk. The improved methodology used in this study adds to our understanding of cancer risks associated with low-dose tritium exposure. Tritium estimates were not associated with increased risk of radiationsensitive cancers in Pickering.

  7. Estimation and characterization of children’s ambient generated exposure to PM2.5 using sulphate and elemental carbon as tracers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noullett, Melanie; Jackson, Peter L.; Brauer, Michael

    2010-11-01

    Children's exposures to ambient and non-ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) were determined using the sulphate and elemental carbon components of the PM 2.5 mixture as tracers of the ambient contribution during a 6-week winter period in Prince George, British Columbia, Canada. Personal exposures to PM 2.5 were measured in children at 5 elementary schools located throughout the city and ambient samples were collected on school rooftops. Average ambient levels and personal exposures during this time period were 13.8 μg m -3 and 16.4 μg m -3 respectively. From the data pooled across individuals, use of the two different tracers indicated identical estimates of median exposure to ambient PM 2.5 (7.5 μg m -3) and similar estimates of non-ambient generated exposure (6.4 and 5.0 μg m -3) and infiltration (0.49 and 0.52) for the sulphate and elemental carbon approach, respectively. The median fraction of the ambient concentration resulting in exposure or exposure factors were 0.54 and 0.55 respectively, however lower values of 0.46 and 0.42 were determined from regression analysis. A strong association was found between exposure to ambient PM 2.5 and measured ambient concentrations at both the closest school monitor (median r = 0.92) and a central site (median r = 0.88) demonstrating that the central site monitor was suitable for assessing longitudinal ambient generated exposure throughout the city. These results support the use of elemental carbon as a tracer of ambient generated exposure and the use of ambient data as estimates of longitudinal changes in children's exposure in this setting. The importance of both ambient and non-ambient sources of PM 2.5 is emphasized by their almost equal contribution to total personal exposures. Comparison with other studies suggests a limited influence of climate and the cold season in Prince George on exposure levels and found similar mean non-ambient generated exposures despite large variability across and within subjects

  8. Health Impact Assessment for Second-Hand Smoke Exposure in Germany—Quantifying Estimates for Ischaemic Heart Diseases, COPD, and Stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Fischer

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Evidence of the adverse health effects attributable to second-hand smoke (SHS exposure is available. This study aims to quantify the impact of SHS exposure on ischaemic heart diseases (IHD, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD, and stroke in Germany. Therefore, this study estimated and forecasted the morbidity for the three outcomes in the German population. Furthermore, a health impact assessment was performed using DYNAMO-HIA, which is a generic software tool applying a Markov model. Overall 687,254 IHD cases, 231,973 COPD cases, and 288,015 stroke cases were estimated to be attributable to SHS exposure in Germany for 2014. Under the assumption that the population prevalence of these diseases and the prevalence of SHS exposure remain constant, the total number of cases will increase due to demographic aging. Assuming a total eradication of SHS exposure beginning in 2014 leads to an estimated reduction of 50% in cases, compared to the reference scenario in 2040 for all three diseases. The results highlight the relevance of SHS exposure because it affects several chronic disease conditions and has a major impact on the population’s health. Therefore, public health campaigns to protect non-smokers are urgently needed.

  9. Assessment of Cumulative Sound Exposure Levels for Marine Piling Events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lepper, P.A.; Robinson, S.P.; Ainslie, M.A.; Theobald, P.D.; Jong, C.A.F. de

    2012-01-01

    The installation of offshore wind farms in European waters and the scale of the planned activity have led to concern over the generation of noise and its potential impact on marine life. Much of this concern is centered around the noise generated by pile driving, which is used for the installation o

  10. Concentrations, cumulative exposure and critical levels of ozone in Ireland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kluizenaar, Y. de; Aherne, J.; Farrell, E.P.

    2001-01-01

    Concentrations of tropospheric ozone (O3) and exceedance of critical levels to vegetation have been investigated and mapped for Ireland. Hourly ozone concentration data (1995–1997) at 7 seven monitoring stations and the CORINE landcover database, supported by a Geographical Information System, were

  11. Assessment of Cumulative Sound Exposure Levels for Marine Piling Events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lepper, P.A.; Robinson, S.P.; Ainslie, M.A.; Theobald, P.D.; Jong, C.A.F. de

    2012-01-01

    The installation of offshore wind farms in European waters and the scale of the planned activity have led to concern over the generation of noise and its potential impact on marine life. Much of this concern is centered around the noise generated by pile driving, which is used for the installation

  12. High resolution spatio-temporal mapping of NO2 pollution for estimating personal exposures of the Dutch population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soenario, Ivan; Helbich, Marco; Schmitz, Oliver; Strak, Maciek; Hoek, Gerard; Karssenberg, Derek

    2017-04-01

    Air pollution has been associated with adverse health effects (e.g., cardiovascular and respiration diseases) in the urban environments. Therefore, the assessment of people's exposure to air pollution is central in epidemiological studies. The estimation of exposures on an individual level can be done by combining location information across space and over time with spatio-temporal data on air pollution concentrations. When detailed information on peoples' space-time paths (e.g. commuting patterns calculated by means of spatial routing algorithms or tracked through GPS) and peoples' major activity locations (e.g. home location, work location) are available, it is possible to calculate more precise personal exposure levels depending on peoples' individual space-time mobility patterns. This requires air pollution values not only at a high level of spatial accuracy and high temporal granularity but such data also needs to be available on a nation-wide scale. As current data is seriously limited in this respect, we introduce a novel data set of NO2 levels across the Netherlands. The provided NO2 concentrations are accessible on hourly timestamps on a 5 meter grid cell resolution for weekdays and weekends, and each month of the year. We modeled a single Land Use Regression model using a five year average of NO2 data from the Dutch NO2 measurement network consisting of N=46 sampling locations distributed over the country. Predictor variables for this model were selected in a data-driven manner using an Elastic Net and Best Subset Selection procedure from 70 candidate predictors including traffic, industry, infrastructure and population-based variables. Subsequently, to model NO2 for each time scale (hour, week, month), the LUR coefficients were fitted using the NO2 data, aggregated per time scale. Model validation was grounded on independent data collected in an ad hoc measurement campaign. Our results show a considerable difference in urban concentrations between

  13. Cumulative Stress and Cortisol Disruption among Black and Hispanic Pregnant Women in an Urban Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suglia, Shakira Franco; Staudenmayer, John; Cohen, Sheldon; Enlow, Michelle Bosquet; Rich-Edwards, Janet W.; Wright, Rosalind J.

    2010-01-01

    While adult hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis functioning is thought to be altered by traumatic experiences, little data exist on the effects of cumulative stress on HPA functioning among pregnant women or among specific racial and ethnic groups. Individuals may be increasingly vulnerable to physiological alterations when experiencing cumulative effects of multiple stressors. These effects may be particularly relevant in urban poor communities where exposure to multiple stressors is more prevalent. The goal of this study was to explore the effects of multiple social stressors on HPA axis functioning in a sample of urban Black (n = 68) and Hispanic (n = 132) pregnant women enrolled in the Asthma Coalition on Community, Environment, and Social Stress (ACCESS). Pregnant women were administered the Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (R-CTS) survey to assess interpersonal violence, the Experiences of Discrimination (EOD) survey, the Crisis in Family Systems-Revised (CRISYS-R) negative life events survey, and the My Exposure to Violence (ETV) survey, which ascertains exposure to community violence. A cumulative stress measure was derived from these instruments. Salivary cortisol samples were collected five times per day over three days to assess area under the curve (AUC), morning change, and basal awakening response in order to characterize diurnal salivary cortisol patterns. Repeated measures mixed models, stratified by race/ethnicity, were performed adjusting for education level, age, smoking status, body mass index and weeks pregnant at time of cortisol sampling. The majority of Hispanic participants (57%) had low cumulative stress exposure, while the majority of Black participants had intermediate (35%) or high (41%) cumulative stress exposure. Results showed that among Black but not Hispanic women, cumulative stress was associated with lower morning cortisol levels, including a flatter waking to bedtime rhythm. These analyses suggest that the combined

  14. Cumulative Stress and Cortisol Disruption among Black and Hispanic Pregnant Women in an Urban Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suglia, Shakira Franco; Staudenmayer, John; Cohen, Sheldon; Enlow, Michelle Bosquet; Rich-Edwards, Janet W; Wright, Rosalind J

    2010-12-01

    While adult hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis functioning is thought to be altered by traumatic experiences, little data exist on the effects of cumulative stress on HPA functioning among pregnant women or among specific racial and ethnic groups. Individuals may be increasingly vulnerable to physiological alterations when experiencing cumulative effects of multiple stressors. These effects may be particularly relevant in urban poor communities where exposure to multiple stressors is more prevalent. The goal of this study was to explore the effects of multiple social stressors on HPA axis functioning in a sample of urban Black (n = 68) and Hispanic (n = 132) pregnant women enrolled in the Asthma Coalition on Community, Environment, and Social Stress (ACCESS). Pregnant women were administered the Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (R-CTS) survey to assess interpersonal violence, the Experiences of Discrimination (EOD) survey, the Crisis in Family Systems-Revised (CRISYS-R) negative life events survey, and the My Exposure to Violence (ETV) survey, which ascertains exposure to community violence. A cumulative stress measure was derived from these instruments. Salivary cortisol samples were collected five times per day over three days to assess area under the curve (AUC), morning change, and basal awakening response in order to characterize diurnal salivary cortisol patterns. Repeated measures mixed models, stratified by race/ethnicity, were performed adjusting for education level, age, smoking status, body mass index and weeks pregnant at time of cortisol sampling. The majority of Hispanic participants (57%) had low cumulative stress exposure, while the majority of Black participants had intermediate (35%) or high (41%) cumulative stress exposure. Results showed that among Black but not Hispanic women, cumulative stress was associated with lower morning cortisol levels, including a flatter waking to bedtime rhythm. These analyses suggest that the combined

  15. Nonlinear cumulative damage model for multiaxial fatigue

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHANG De-guang; SUN Guo-qin; DENG Jing; YAN Chu-liang

    2006-01-01

    On the basis of the continuum fatigue damage theory,a nonlinear uniaxial fatigue cumulative damage model is first proposed.In order to describe multiaxial fatigue damage characteristics,a nonlinear multiaxial fatigue cumulative damage model is developed based on the critical plane approach,The proposed model can consider the multiaxial fatigue limit,mean hydrostatic pressure and the unseparated characteristic for the damage variables and loading parameters.The recurrence formula of fatigue damage model was derived under multilevel loading,which is used to predict multiaxial fatigue life.The results showed that the proposed nonlinear multiaxial fatigue cumulative damage model is better than Miner's rule.

  16. Dose estimation for repeated phosphorus-32 ingestion in human subjects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chao, J.H.; Tseng, C.L.; Hsieh, W.A.; Hung, D.Z.; Chang, W.P. E-mail: wpc94@mailsrv.ym.edu.tw

    2001-01-15

    Dose estimation was conducted for internal phosphorus-32 exposure in one young male subject from repeated oral mis-ingestion for >1 year. Since disclosure for previous continuous contamination, a series of urine samples were collected from this individual weekly for a period of >2 months. P-32 radioactivity in urine samples were measured by the acid precipitation method. Estimation for retrospective total effective dose equivalent received by this subject was conducted for cumulative internal dose estimation. A minimum of 9.4 mSv was estimated for an assumed single ingestion. As this was a rare case in radiation protection and internal radiation dosimetry, its implications were of considerable significance.

  17. Cumulative receipt of an anti-poverty tax credit for families did not impact tobacco smoking among parents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pega, Frank; Gilsanz, Paola; Kawachi, Ichiro; Wilson, Nick; Blakely, Tony

    2017-04-01

    The effect of anti-poverty tax credit interventions on tobacco consumption is unclear. Previous studies have estimated short-term effects, did not isolate the effects of cumulative dose of tax credits, produced conflicting results, and used methods with limited control for some time-varying confounders (e.g., those affected by prior treatment) and treatment regimen (i.e., study participants' tax credit receipt pattern over time). We estimated the longer-term, cumulative effect of New Zealand's Family Tax Credit (FTC) on tobacco consumption, using a natural experiment (administrative errors leading to exogenous variation in FTC receipt) and methods specifically for controlling confounding, reverse causation, and treatment regimen. We extracted seven waves (2002-2009) of the nationally representative Survey of Family, Income and Employment including 4404 working-age (18-65 years) parents in families. The exposure was the total numbers of years of receiving FTC. The outcomes were regular smoking and the average daily number of cigarettes usually smoked at wave 7. We estimated average treatment effects using inverse probability of treatment weighting and marginal structural modelling. Each additional year of receiving FTC affected neither the odds of regular tobacco smoking among all parents (odds ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.94-1.11), nor the number of cigarettes smoked among parents who smoked regularly (rate ratio 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.99-1.03). We found no evidence for an association between the cumulative number of years of receiving an anti-poverty tax credit and tobacco smoking or consumption among parents. The assumptions of marginal structural modelling are quite demanding, and we therefore cannot rule out residual confounding. Nonetheless, our results suggest that tax credit programme participation will not increase tobacco consumption among poor parents, at least in this high-income country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  18. Economic implications of mercury exposure in the context of the global mercury treaty: Hair mercury levels and estimated lost economic productivity in selected developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trasande, Leonardo; DiGangi, Joseph; Evers, David C; Petrlik, Jindrich; Buck, David G; Šamánek, Jan; Beeler, Bjorn; Turnquist, Madeline A; Regan, Kevin

    2016-12-01

    Several developing countries have limited or no information about exposures near anthropogenic mercury sources and no studies have quantified costs of mercury pollution or economic benefits to mercury pollution prevention in these countries. In this study, we present data on mercury concentrations in human hair from subpopulations in developing countries most likely to benefit from the implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury. These data are then used to estimate economic costs of mercury exposure in these communities. Hair samples were collected from sites located in 15 countries. We used a linear dose-response relationship that previously identified a 0.18 IQ point decrement per part per million (ppm) increase in hair mercury, and modeled a base case scenario assuming a reference level of 1 ppm, and a second scenario assuming no reference level. We then estimated the corresponding increases in intellectual disability and lost Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY). A total of 236 participants provided hair samples for analysis, with an estimated population at risk of mercury exposure near the 15 sites of 11,302,582. Average mercury levels were in the range of 0.48 ppm-4.60 ppm, and 61% of all participants had hair mercury concentrations greater than 1 ppm, the level that approximately corresponds to the USA EPA reference dose. An additional 1310 cases of intellectual disability attributable to mercury exposure were identified annually (4110 assuming no reference level), resulting in 16,501 lost DALYs (51,809 assuming no reference level). A total of $77.4 million in lost economic productivity was estimated assuming a 1 ppm reference level and $130 million if no reference level was used. We conclude that significant mercury exposures occur in developing and transition country communities near sources named in the Minamata Convention, and our estimates suggest that a large economic burden could be avoided by timely implementation of measures to

  19. 4D Near-Field Source Localization Using Cumulant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao Feng

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new cumulant-based algorithm to jointly estimate four-dimensional (4D source parameters of multiple near-field narrowband sources. Firstly, this approach proposes a new cross-array, and constructs five high-dimensional Toeplitz matrices using the fourth-order cumulants of some properly chosen sensor outputs; secondly, it forms a parallel factor (PARAFAC model in the cumulant domain using these matrices, and analyzes the unique low-rank decomposition of this model; thirdly, it jointly estimates the frequency, two-dimensional (2D directions-of-arrival (DOAs, and range of each near-field source from the matrices via the low-rank three-way array (TWA decomposition. In comparison with some available methods, the proposed algorithm, which efficiently makes use of the array aperture, can localize sources using sensors. In addition, it requires neither pairing parameters nor multidimensional search. Simulation results are presented to validate the performance of the proposed method.

  20. 4D Near-Field Source Localization Using Cumulant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junying Zhang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new cumulant-based algorithm to jointly estimate four-dimensional (4D source parameters of multiple near-field narrowband sources. Firstly, this approach proposes a new cross-array, and constructs five high-dimensional Toeplitz matrices using the fourth-order cumulants of some properly chosen sensor outputs; secondly, it forms a parallel factor (PARAFAC model in the cumulant domain using these matrices, and analyzes the unique low-rank decomposition of this model; thirdly, it jointly estimates the frequency, two-dimensional (2D directions-of-arrival (DOAs, and range of each near-field source from the matrices via the low-rank three-way array (TWA decomposition. In comparison with some available methods, the proposed algorithm, which efficiently makes use of the array aperture, can localize N−3 sources using N sensors. In addition, it requires neither pairing parameters nor multidimensional search. Simulation results are presented to validate the performance of the proposed method.

  1. Measurement error correction for the cumulative average model in the survival analysis of nutritional data: application to Nurses' Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Weiliang; Rosner, Bernard

    2010-01-01

    The use of the cumulative average model to investigate the association between disease incidence and repeated measurements of exposures in medical follow-up studies can be dated back to the 1960s (Kahn and Dawber, J Chron Dis 19:611-620, 1966). This model takes advantage of all prior data and thus should provide a statistically more powerful test of disease-exposure associations. Measurement error in covariates is common for medical follow-up studies. Many methods have been proposed to correct for measurement error. To the best of our knowledge, no methods have been proposed yet to correct for measurement error in the cumulative average model. In this article, we propose a regression calibration approach to correct relative risk estimates for measurement error. The approach is illustrated with data from the Nurses' Health Study relating incident breast cancer between 1980 and 2002 to time-dependent measures of calorie-adjusted saturated fat intake, controlling for total caloric intake, alcohol intake, and baseline age.

  2. Benchmark Dose Analysis from Multiple Datasets: The Cumulative Risk Assessment for the N-Methyl Carbamate Pesticides

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US EPA’s N-Methyl Carbamate (NMC) Cumulative Risk assessment was based on the effect on acetylcholine esterase (AChE) activity of exposure to 10 NMC pesticides through dietary, drinking water, and residential exposures, assuming the effects of joint exposure to NMCs is dose-...

  3. Is the digestive gland of Mytilus galloprovincialis a tissue of choice for estimating cadmium exposure by means of metallothioneins?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raspor, Biserka; Dragun, Zrinka; Erk, Marijana; Ivankovic, Dusica; Pavicic, Jasenka

    2004-10-15

    A study performed over 12 months with caged mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis in the coastal marine zone, which is under urban pressure, reveals a temporal variation of digestive gland mass, which causes 'biological dilution' of cytosolic metallothionein (MT) and trace metal (Cd, Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn) concentrations. The dilution effect was corrected by expressing the cytosolic MT and metal concentrations as the tissue content. Consequently, the changes of the average digestive gland mass coincide with the changes of MT and trace metal contents. From February to June, MT contents are nearly twice and trace metal contents nearly three times higher than those of the other months. The period of increased average digestive gland mass, of MT and trace metal contents probably overlaps with the sexual maturation of mussels (gametogenesis) and enhanced food availability. Since natural factors contribute more to the MT content than the sublethal levels of Cd, the digestive gland of M. galloprovincialis is not considered as a tissue of choice for estimating Cd exposure by means of MTs.

  4. Ion Mobility Spectrometry-Hydrogen Deuterium Exchange Mass Spectrometry of Anions: Part 3. Estimating Surface Area Exposure by Deuterium Uptake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakinejad, Mahdiar; Ghassabi Kondalaji, Samaneh; Donohoe, Gregory C.; Valentine, Stephen J.

    2016-03-01

    Gas-phase hydrogen deuterium exchange (HDX), collision cross section (CCS) measurement, and molecular dynamics simulation (MDS) techniques were utilized to develop and compare three methods for estimating the relative surface area exposure of separate peptide chains within bovine insulin ions. Electrosprayed [M - 3H]3- and [M - 5H]5- insulin ions produced a single conformer type with respective collision cross sections of 528 ± 5 Å2 and 808 ± 2 Å2. [M - 4H]4- ions were comprised of more compact (Ω = 676 ± 3 Å2) and diffuse (i.e., more elongated, Ω = 779 ± 3 Å2) ion conformer types. Ions were subjected to HDX in the drift tube using D2O as the reagent gas. Collision-induced dissociation was used to fragment mobility-selected, isotopically labeled [M - 4H]4- and [M - 5H]5- ions into the protein subchains. Deuterium uptake levels of each chain can be explained by limited inter-chain isotopic scrambling upon collisional activation. Using nominal ion structures from MDS and a hydrogen accessibility model, the deuterium uptake for each chain was correlated to its exposed surface area. In separate experiments, the per-residue deuterium content for the protonated and deprotonated ions of the synthetic peptide KKDDDDDIIKIIK were compared. The differences in deuterium content indicated the regional HDX accessibility for cations versus anions. Using ions of similar conformational type, this comparison highlights the complementary nature of HDX data obtained from positive- and negative-ion analysis.

  5. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legare, Cristine H

    2017-07-24

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children's learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission-the cornerstone of human cultural diversity.

  6. Cumulative risk: toxicity and interactions of physical and chemical stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rider, Cynthia V; Boekelheide, Kim; Catlin, Natasha; Gordon, Christopher J; Morata, Thais; Selgrade, Maryjane K; Sexton, Kenneth; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2014-01-01

    Recent efforts to update cumulative risk assessment procedures to incorporate nonchemical stressors ranging from physical to psychosocial reflect increased interest in consideration of the totality of variables affecting human health and the growing desire to develop community-based risk assessment methods. A key roadblock is the uncertainty as to how nonchemical stressors behave in relationship to chemical stressors. Physical stressors offer a reasonable starting place for measuring the effects of nonchemical stressors and their modulation of chemical effects (and vice versa), as they clearly differ from chemical stressors; and "doses" of many physical stressors are more easily quantifiable than those of psychosocial stressors. There is a commonly held belief that virtually nothing is known about the impact of nonchemical stressors on chemically mediated toxicity or the joint impact of coexposure to chemical and nonchemical stressors. Although this is generally true, there are several instances where a substantial body of evidence exists. A workshop titled "Cumulative Risk: Toxicity and Interactions of Physical and Chemical Stressors" held at the 2013 Society of Toxicology Annual Meeting provided a forum for discussion of research addressing the toxicity of physical stressors and what is known about their interactions with chemical stressors, both in terms of exposure and effects. Physical stressors including sunlight, heat, radiation, infectious disease, and noise were discussed in reference to identifying pathways of interaction with chemical stressors, data gaps, and suggestions for future incorporation into cumulative risk assessments.

  7. Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

  8. Cumulative cultural evolution: the role of teaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Laureano; Toro, Miguel A

    2014-04-21

    In humans, cultural transmission occurs usually by cumulative inheritance, generating complex adaptive behavioral features. Cumulative culture requires key psychological processes (fundamentally imitation and teaching) that are absent or impoverished in non-human primates. In this paper we analyze the role that teaching has played in human cumulative cultural evolution. We assume that a system of cumulative culture generates increasingly adaptive behaviors, that are also more complex and difficult to imitate. Our thesis is that, as cultural traits become more complex, cumulative cultural transmission requires teaching to ensure accurate transmission from one generation to the next. In an increasingly complex cultural environment, we consider that individuals commit errors in imitation. We develop a model of cumulative cultural evolution in a changing environment and show that these errors hamper the process of cultural accumulation. We also show that a system of teaching between parents and offspring that increases the fidelity of imitation unblocks the accumulation and becomes adaptive whenever the gain in fitness compensates the cost of teaching.

  9. Human cumulative culture: a comparative perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Lewis G; Vale, Gill L; Laland, Kevin N; Flynn, Emma; Kendal, Rachel L

    2014-05-01

    Many animals exhibit social learning and behavioural traditions, but human culture exhibits unparalleled complexity and diversity, and is unambiguously cumulative in character. These similarities and differences have spawned a debate over whether animal traditions and human culture are reliant on homologous or analogous psychological processes. Human cumulative culture combines high-fidelity transmission of cultural knowledge with beneficial modifications to generate a 'ratcheting' in technological complexity, leading to the development of traits far more complex than one individual could invent alone. Claims have been made for cumulative culture in several species of animals, including chimpanzees, orangutans and New Caledonian crows, but these remain contentious. Whilst initial work on the topic of cumulative culture was largely theoretical, employing mathematical methods developed by population biologists, in recent years researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including psychology, biology, economics, biological anthropology, linguistics and archaeology, have turned their attention to the experimental investigation of cumulative culture. We review this literature, highlighting advances made in understanding the underlying processes of cumulative culture and emphasising areas of agreement and disagreement amongst investigators in separate fields.

  10. GPS-based microenvironment tracker (MicroTrac) model to estimate time–location of individuals for air pollution exposure assessments: Model evaluation in central North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, Michael S.; Long, Thomas C.; Schultz, Bradley D.; Crooks, James; Breen, Miyuki; Langstaff, John E.; Isaacs, Kristin K.; Tan, Yu-Mei; Williams, Ronald W.; Cao, Ye; Geller, Andrew M.; Devlin, Robert B.; Batterman, Stuart A.; Buckley, Timothy J.

    2014-01-01

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure assessment is the estimation of the time spent by individuals in various microenvironments (ME). Accounting for the time spent in different ME with different pollutant concentrations can reduce exposure misclassifications, while failure to do so can add uncertainty and bias to risk estimates. In this study, a classification model, called MicroTrac, was developed to estimate time of day and duration spent in eight ME (indoors and outdoors at home, work, school; inside vehicles; other locations) from global positioning system (GPS) data and geocoded building boundaries. Based on a panel study, MicroTrac estimates were compared with 24-h diary data from nine participants, with corresponding GPS data and building boundaries of home, school, and work. MicroTrac correctly classified the ME for 99.5% of the daily time spent by the participants. The capability of MicroTrac could help to reduce the time–location uncertainty in air pollution exposure models and exposure metrics for individuals in health studies. PMID:24619294

  11. A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundExposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of a...

  12. Impact of measurement error in radon exposure on the estimated excess relative risk of lung cancer death in a simulated study based on the French Uranium Miners' Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allodji, Rodrigue S; Leuraud, Klervi; Thiébaut, Anne C M; Henry, Stéphane; Laurier, Dominique; Bénichou, Jacques

    2012-05-01

    Measurement error (ME) can lead to bias in the analysis of epidemiologic studies. Here a simulation study is described that is based on data from the French Uranium Miners' Cohort and that was conducted to assess the effect of ME on the estimated excess relative risk (ERR) of lung cancer death associated with radon exposure. Starting from a scenario without any ME, data were generated containing successively Berkson or classical ME depending on time periods, to reflect changes in the measurement of exposure to radon ((222)Rn) and its decay products over time in this cohort. Results indicate that ME attenuated the level of association with radon exposure, with a negative bias percentage on the order of 60% on the ERR estimate. Sensitivity analyses showed the consequences of specific ME characteristics (type, size, structure, and distribution) on the ERR estimates. In the future, it appears important to correct for ME upon analyzing cohorts such as this one to decrease bias in estimates of the ERR of adverse events associated with exposure to ionizing radiation.

  13. A simulation study to quantify the impacts of exposure measurement error on air pollution health risk estimates in copollutant time-series models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundExposure measurement error in copollutant epidemiologic models has the potential to introduce bias in relative risk (RR) estimates. A simulation study was conducted using empirical data to quantify the impact of correlated measurement errors in time-series analyses of a...

  14. Estimation of exposure to atmospheric pollutants during pregnancy integrating space-time activity and indoor air levels: Does it make a difference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouidir, Marion; Giorgis-Allemand, Lise; Lyon-Caen, Sarah; Morelli, Xavier; Cracowski, Claire; Pontet, Sabrina; Pin, Isabelle; Lepeule, Johanna; Siroux, Valérie; Slama, Rémy

    2015-11-01

    Studies of air pollution effects during pregnancy generally only consider exposure in the outdoor air at the home address. We aimed to compare exposure models differing in their ability to account for the spatial resolution of pollutants, space-time activity and indoor air pollution levels. We recruited 40 pregnant women in the Grenoble urban area, France, who carried a Global Positioning System (GPS) during up to 3 weeks; in a subgroup, indoor measurements of fine particles (PM2.5) were conducted at home (n=9) and personal exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was assessed using passive air samplers (n=10). Outdoor concentrations of NO2, and PM2.5 were estimated from a dispersion model with a fine spatial resolution. Women spent on average 16 h per day at home. Considering only outdoor levels, for estimates at the home address, the correlation between the estimate using the nearest background air monitoring station and the estimate from the dispersion model was high (r=0.93) for PM2.5 and moderate (r=0.67) for NO2. The model incorporating clean GPS data was less correlated with the estimate relying on raw GPS data (r=0.77) than the model ignoring space-time activity (r=0.93). PM2.5 outdoor levels were not to moderately correlated with estimates from the model incorporating indoor measurements and space-time activity (r=-0.10 to 0.47), while NO2 personal levels were not correlated with outdoor levels (r=-0.42 to 0.03). In this urban area, accounting for space-time activity little influenced exposure estimates; in a subgroup of subjects (n=9), incorporating indoor pollution levels seemed to strongly modify them.

  15. An examination of population exposure to traffic related air pollution: Comparing spatially and temporally resolved estimates against long-term average exposures at the home location.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shekarrizfard, Maryam; Faghih-Imani, Ahmadreza; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

    2016-05-01

    Air pollution in metropolitan areas is mainly caused by traffic emissions. This study presents the development of a model chain consisting of a transportation model, an emissions model, and atmospheric dispersion model, applied to dynamically evaluate individuals' exposure to air pollution by intersecting daily trajectories of individuals and hourly spatial variations of air pollution across the study domain. This dynamic approach is implemented in Montreal, Canada to highlight the advantages of the method for exposure analysis. The results for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a marker of traffic related air pollution, reveal significant differences when relying on spatially and temporally resolved concentrations combined with individuals' daily trajectories compared to a long-term average NO2 concentration at the home location. We observe that NO2 exposures based on trips and activity locations visited throughout the day were often more elevated than daily NO2 concentrations at the home location. The percentage of all individuals with a lower 24-hour daily average at home compared to their 24-hour mobility exposure is 89.6%, of which 31% of individuals increase their