Cumulative effects of wind turbines. Volume 3: Report on results of consultations on cumulative effects of wind turbines on birds

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-07-01

This report gives details of the consultations held in developing the consensus approach taken in assessing the cumulative effects of wind turbines. Contributions on bird issues, and views of stakeholders, the Countryside Council for Wales, electric utilities, Scottish Natural Heritage, and the National Wind Power Association are reported. The scoping of key species groups, where cumulative effects might be expected, consideration of other developments, the significance of any adverse effects, mitigation, regional capacity assessments, and predictive models are discussed. Topics considered at two stakeholder workshops are outlined in the appendices.

Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

2011-12-01

In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

The EPA's human exposure research program for assessing cumulative risk in communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D

2010-06-01

Communities are faced with challenges in identifying and prioritizing environmental issues, taking actions to reduce their exposures, and determining their effectiveness for reducing human health risks. Additional challenges include determining what scientific tools are available and most relevant, and understanding how to use those tools; given these barriers, community groups tend to rely more on risk perception than science. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and collaborators are developing and applying tools (models, data, methods) for enhancing cumulative risk assessments. The NERL's "Cumulative Communities Research Program" focuses on key science questions: (1) How to systematically identify and prioritize key chemical stressors within a given community?; (2) How to develop estimates of exposure to multiple stressors for individuals in epidemiologic studies?; and (3) What tools can be used to assess community-level distributions of exposures for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of risk reduction strategies? This paper provides community partners and scientific researchers with an understanding of the NERL research program and other efforts to address cumulative community risks; and key research needs and opportunities. Some initial findings include the following: (1) Many useful tools exist for components of risk assessment, but need to be developed collaboratively with end users and made more comprehensive and user-friendly for practical application; (2) Tools for quantifying cumulative risks and impact of community risk reduction activities are also needed; (3) More data are needed to assess community- and individual-level exposures, and to link exposure-related information with health effects; and (4) Additional research is needed to incorporate risk-modifying factors ("non-chemical stressors") into cumulative risk assessments. The products of this

Elaboration of a concept for the cumulative environmental exposure assessment of biocides

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gross, Rita; Bunke, Dirk; Moch, Katja [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie e.V., Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany); Gartiser, Stefan [Hydrotox GmbH, Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

2011-12-15

Article 10(1) of the EU Biocidal Products Directive 98/8/EC (BPD) requires that for the inclusion of an active substance in Annex I, Annex IA or IB, cumulation effects from the use of biocidal products containing the same active substance shall be taken into account, where relevant. The study proves the feasibility of a technical realisation of Article 10(1) of the BPD and elaborates a first concept for the cumulative environmental exposure assessment of biocides. Existing requirements concerning cumulative assessments in other regulatory frameworks have been evaluated and their applicability for biocides has been examined. Technical terms and definitions used in this context were documented with the aim to harmonise terminology with other frameworks and to set up a precise definition within the BPD. Furthermore, application conditions of biocidal products have been analysed to find out for which cumulative exposure assessments may be relevant. Different parameters were identified which might serve as indicators for the relevance of cumulative exposure assessments. These indicators were then integrated in a flow chart by means of which the relevance of cumulative exposure assessments can be checked. Finally, proposals for the technical performance of cumulative exposure assessments within the Review Programme have been elaborated with the aim to bring the results of the project into the upcoming development and harmonization processes on EU level. (orig.)

Managing regional cumulative effects of oil sands development in Alberta, Canada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spaling, H.; Zwier, J.

2000-01-01

This paper demonstrates an approach to regional cumulative effects management using the case of oil sands development in Alberta, Canada. The 17 existing, approved, or planned projects, all concentrated in a relatively small region, pose significant challenges for conducting and reviewing cumulative effects assessment (CEA) on a project-by-project basis. In response, stakeholders have initiated a regional cumulative effects management system that is among the first such initiatives anywhere. Advantages of this system include (1) more efficient gathering and sharing of information, including a common regional database, (2) setting acceptable regional environmental thresholds for all projects, (3) collaborative assessment of similar cumulative effects from related projects, (4) co-ordinated regulatory review and approval process for overlapping CEAs, and (5) institutional empowerment from a Regional Sustainable Development Strategy administered by a public authority. This case provides a model for integrating project-based CEA with regional management of cumulative effects. (author)

Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

2018-06-01

Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Summary report of a workshop on establishing cumulative effects thresholds : a suggested approach for establishing cumulative effects thresholds in a Yukon context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

Increasingly, thresholds are being used as a land and cumulative effects assessment and management tool. To assist in the management of wildlife species such as woodland caribou, the Department of Indian and Northern Affairs (DIAND) Environment Directorate, Yukon sponsored a workshop to develop and use cumulative thresholds in the Yukon. The approximately 30 participants reviewed recent initiatives in the Yukon and other jurisdictions. The workshop is expected to help formulate a strategic vision for implementing cumulative effects thresholds in the Yukon. The key to success resides in building relationships with Umbrella Final Agreement (UFA) Boards, the Development Assessment Process (DAP), and the Yukon Environmental and Socio-Economic Assessment Act (YESAA). Broad support is required within an integrated resource management framework. The workshop featured discussions on current science and theory of cumulative effects thresholds. Potential data and implementation issues were also discussed. It was concluded that thresholds are useful and scientifically defensible. The threshold research results obtained in Alberta, British Columbia and the Northwest Territories are applicable to the Yukon. One of the best tools for establishing and tracking thresholds is habitat effectiveness. Effects must be monitored and tracked. Biologists must share their information with decision makers. Interagency coordination and assistance should be facilitated through the establishment of working groups. Regional land use plans should include thresholds. 7 refs.

Framework tool for a rapid cumulative effects assessment: case of a prominent wetland in Myanmar.

Science.gov (United States)

Pradhan, N; Habib, H; Venkatappa, M; Ebbers, T; Duboz, R; Shipin, O

2015-06-01

The wetland of focus, Inle Lake, located in central Myanmar, is well known for its unique biodiversity and culture, as well as for ingenious floating garden agriculture. During the last decades, the lake area has seen extensive degradation in terms of water quality, erosion, deforestation, and biodiversity concomitant with a major shift to unsustainable land use. The study was conducted, with an emphasis on water quality, to analyze environmental impacts (effects) changing the ecosystem and to comprehensively evaluate the environmental state of the ecosystem through an innovative Rapid Cumulative Effects Assessment framework tool. The assessment started with a framework-forming Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), which quantified and prioritized impacts over space and time. Critically important impacts were assessed for "intra-inter interactions" using the loop analysis simulation. Water samples were analyzed while geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing were used to identify water pollution hotspots. It was concluded that out of a plethora of impacts, pollution from municipal sources, sedimentation, and effects exerted by floating gardens had the most detrimental impacts, which cumulatively affected the entire ecosystem. The framework tool was designed in a broad sense with a reference to highly needed assessments of poorly studied wetlands where degradation is evident, but scarcely quantified, and where long-term field studies are fraught with security issues and resource unavailability (post-conflict, poor and remote regions, e.g., Afghanistan, Laos, Sudan, etc.).

Cumulative Effects Assessment: Linking Social, Ecological, and Governance Dimensions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marian Weber

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Setting social, economic, and ecological objectives is ultimately a process of social choice informed by science. In this special feature we provide a multidisciplinary framework for the use of cumulative effects assessment in land use planning. Forest ecosystems are facing considerable challenges driven by population growth and increasing demands for resources. In a suite of case studies that span the boreal forest of Western Canada to the interior Atlantic forest of Paraguay we show how transparent and defensible methods for scenario analysis can be applied in data-limited regions and how social dimensions of land use change can be incorporated in these methods, particularly in aboriginal communities that have lived in these ecosystems for generations. The case studies explore how scenario analysis can be used to evaluate various land use options and highlight specific challenges with identifying social and ecological responses, determining thresholds and targets for land use, and integrating local and traditional knowledge in land use planning. Given that land use planning is ultimately a value-laden and often politically charged process we also provide some perspective on various collective and expert-based processes for identifying cumulative impacts and thresholds. The need for good science to inform and be informed by culturally appropriate democratic processes calls for well-planned and multifaceted approaches both to achieve an informed understanding of both residents and governments of the interactive and additive changes caused by development, and to design action agendas to influence such change at the ecological and social level.

The Role of Cumulative Risk Assessment in Decisions about Environmental Justice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ken Sexton

2010-11-01

Full Text Available There is strong presumptive evidence that people living in poverty and certain racial and ethnic groups bear a disproportionate burden of environmental health risk. Many have argued that conducting formal assessments of the health risk experienced by affected communities is both unnecessary and counterproductive—that instead of analyzing the situation our efforts should be devoted to fixing obvious problems and rectifying observable wrongs. We contend that formal assessment of cumulative health risks from combined effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors is a valuable tool to aid decision makers in choosing risk management options that are effective, efficient, and equitable. If used properly, cumulative risk assessment need not impair decision makers’ discretion, nor should it be used as an excuse for doing nothing in the face of evident harm. Good policy decisions require more than good intentions; they necessitate analysis of risk-related information along with careful consideration of economic issues, ethical and moral principles, legal precedents, political realities, cultural beliefs, societal values, and bureaucratic impediments. Cumulative risk assessment can provide a systematic and impartial means for informing policy decisions about environmental justice.

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Alchemy to reason: Effective use of Cumulative Effects Assessment in resource management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hegmann, George; Yarranton, G.A.

2011-01-01

Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) is a tool that can be useful in making decisions about natural resource management and allocation. The decisions to be made include those (i) necessary to construct planning and regulatory frameworks to control development activity so that societal goals will be achieved and (ii) whether or not to approve individual development projects, with or without conditions. The evolution of CEA into a more successful tool cannot occur independently of the evolution of decision making processes. Currently progress is painfully slow on both fronts. This paper explores some opportunities to accelerate improvements in decision making in natural resource management and in the utility of CEA as a tool to assist in making such decisions. The focus of the paper is on how to define the public interest by determining what is acceptable.

Cumulative impact assessments and bird/wind farm interactions: Developing a conceptual framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masden, Elizabeth A.; Fox, Anthony D.; Furness, Robert W.; Bullman, Rhys; Haydon, Daniel T.

2010-01-01

The wind power industry has grown rapidly in the UK to meet EU targets of sourcing 20% of energy from renewable sources by 2020. Although wind power is a renewable energy source, there are environmental concerns over increasing numbers of wind farm proposals and associated cumulative impacts. Individually, a wind farm, or indeed any action, may have minor effects on the environment, but collectively these may be significant, potentially greater than the sum of the individual parts acting alone. EU and UK legislation requires a cumulative impact assessment (CIA) as part of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA). However, in the absence of detailed guidance and definitions, such assessments within EIA are rarely adequate, restricting the acquisition of basic knowledge about the cumulative impacts of wind farms on bird populations. Here we propose a conceptual framework to promote transparency in CIA through the explicit definition of impacts, actions and scales within an assessment. Our framework requires improved legislative guidance on the actions to include in assessments, and advice on the appropriate baselines against which to assess impacts. Cumulative impacts are currently considered on restricted scales (spatial and temporal) relating to individual development EIAs. We propose that benefits would be gained from elevating CIA to a strategic level, as a component of spatially explicit planning.

Strategy for an assessment of cumulative ecological impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boucher, P.; Collins, J.; Nelsen, J.

1995-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a strategy to conduct an assessment of the cumulative ecological impact of operations at the 300-square-mile Savannah River Site. This facility has over 400 identified waste units and contains several large watersheds. In addition to individual waste units, residual contamination must be evaluated in terms of its contribution to ecological risks at zonal and site-wide levels. DOE must be able to generate sufficient information to facilitate cleanup in the immediate future within the context of a site-wide ecological risk assessment that may not be completed for many years. The strategy superimposes a more global perspective on ecological assessments of individual waste units and provides strategic underpinnings for conducting individual screening-level and baseline risk assessments at the operable unit and zonal or watershed levels. It identifies ecological endpoints and risk assessment tools appropriate for each level of the risk assessment. In addition, it provides a clear mechanism for identifying clean sites through screening-level risk assessments and for elevating sites with residual contamination to the next level of assessment. Whereas screening-level and operable unit-level risk assessments relate directly to cleanup, zonal and site-wide assessments verity or confirm the overall effectiveness of remediation. The latter assessments must show, for example, whether multiple small areas with residual pesticide contamination that have minimal individual impact would pose a cumulative risk from bioaccumulation because they are within the habitat range of an ecological receptor

Cumulative effect assessment in Canada: a regional framework for aquatic ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dube, Monique G.

2003-01-01

Sustainable development of the aquatic environment depends upon routine and defensible cumulative effects assessment (CEA). CEA is the process of predicting the consequences of development relative to an assessment of existing environmental quality. Theoretically, it provides an on-going mechanism to evaluate if levels of development exceed the environment's assimilative capacity; i.e., its ability to sustain itself. In practice, the link between CEA and sustainable development has not been realized because CEA concepts and methods have developed along two dichotomous tracks. One track views CEA as an extension of the environmental assessment (EA) process for project developments. Under this track, stressor-based (S-B) methods have been developed where the emphasis is on local, project-related stressors, their link with aquatic indicators, and the potential for environmental effects through stressor-indicator interactions. S-B methods focus on the proposed development and prediction of project-related effects. They lack a mechanism to quantify existing aquatic quality especially at scales broader than an isolated development. This limitation results in the prediction of potential effects relative to a poorly defined baseline state. The other track views CEA as a broader, regional assessment tool where effects-based (E-B) methods specialize in quantification of existing aquatic effects over broad spatial scales. However, the predictive capabilities of E-B methods are limited because they are retrospective, i.e., the stressor causing the effect is identified after the effect has been measured. When used in isolation, S-B and E-B methods do not address CEA in the context necessary for sustainable development. However, if the strengths of these approaches were integrated into a holistic framework for CEA, an operational mechanism would exist to better monitor and assess sustainable development of our aquatic resources. This paper reviews the existing conceptual basis

Cumulative effects of planned industrial development and climate change on marine ecosystems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

2015-07-01

Full Text Available With increasing human population, large scale climate changes, and the interaction of multiple stressors, understanding cumulative effects on marine ecosystems is increasingly important. Two major drivers of change in coastal and marine ecosystems are industrial developments with acute impacts on local ecosystems, and global climate change stressors with widespread impacts. We conducted a cumulative effects mapping analysis of the marine waters of British Columbia, Canada, under different scenarios: climate change and planned developments. At the coast-wide scale, climate change drove the largest change in cumulative effects with both widespread impacts and high vulnerability scores. Where the impacts of planned developments occur, planned industrial and pipeline activities had high cumulative effects, but the footprint of these effects was comparatively localized. Nearshore habitats were at greatest risk from planned industrial and pipeline activities; in particular, the impacts of planned pipelines on rocky intertidal habitats were predicted to cause the highest change in cumulative effects. This method of incorporating planned industrial development in cumulative effects mapping allows explicit comparison of different scenarios with the potential to be used in environmental impact assessments at various scales. Its use allows resource managers to consider cumulative effect hotspots when making decisions regarding industrial developments and avoid unacceptable cumulative effects. Management needs to consider both global and local stressors in managing marine ecosystems for the protection of biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services.

Cumulative Human Impacts on Coral Reefs: Assessing Risk and Management Implications for Brazilian Coral Reefs

OpenAIRE

Rafael A. Magris; Alana Grech; Robert L. Pressey

2018-01-01

Effective management of coral reefs requires strategies tailored to cope with cumulative disturbances from human activities. In Brazil, where coral reefs are a priority for conservation, intensifying threats from local and global stressors are of paramount concern to management agencies. Using a cumulative impact assessment approach, our goal was to inform management actions for coral reefs in Brazil by assessing their exposure to multiple stressors (fishing, land-based activities, coastal de...

Chapter 19. Cumulative watershed effects and watershed analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie M. Reid

1998-01-01

Cumulative watershed effects are environmental changes that are affected by more than.one land-use activity and that are influenced by.processes involving the generation or transport.of water. Almost all environmental changes are.cumulative effects, and almost all land-use.activities contribute to cumulative effects

The challenge of cumulative impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Masden, Elisabeth

2011-07-01

Full text: As governments pledge to combat climate change, wind turbines are becoming a common feature of terrestrial and marine environments. Although wind power is a renewable energy source and a means of reducing carbon emissions, there is a need to ensure that the wind farms themselves do not damage the environment. There is particular concern over the impacts of wind farms on bird populations, and with increasing numbers of wind farm proposals, the concern focuses on cumulative impacts. Individually, a wind farm, or indeed any activity/action, may have minor effects on the environment, but collectively these may be significant, potentially greater than the sum of the individual parts acting alone. Cumulative impact assessment is a legislative requirement of environmental impact assessment but such assessments are rarely adequate restricting the acquisition of basic knowledge about the cumulative impacts of wind farms on bird populations. Reasons for this are numerous but a recurring theme is the lack of clear definitions and guidance on how to perform cumulative assessments. Here we present a conceptual framework and include illustrative examples to demonstrate how the framework can be used to improve the planning and execution of cumulative impact assessments. The core concept is that explicit definitions of impacts, actions and scales of assessment are required to reduce uncertainty in the process of assessment and improve communication between stake holders. Only when it is clear what has been included within a cumulative assessment, is it possible to make comparisons between developments. Our framework requires improved legislative guidance on the actions to include in assessments, and advice on the appropriate baselines against which to assess impacts. Cumulative impacts are currently considered on restricted scales (spatial and temporal) relating to individual development assessments. We propose that benefits would be gained from elevating cumulative

The MCRA model for probabilistic single-compound and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Voet, Hilko; de Boer, Waldo J; Kruisselbrink, Johannes W; Goedhart, Paul W; van der Heijden, Gerie W A M; Kennedy, Marc C; Boon, Polly E; van Klaveren, Jacob D

2015-05-01

Pesticide risk assessment is hampered by worst-case assumptions leading to overly pessimistic assessments. On the other hand, cumulative health effects of similar pesticides are often not taken into account. This paper describes models and a web-based software system developed in the European research project ACROPOLIS. The models are appropriate for both acute and chronic exposure assessments of single compounds and of multiple compounds in cumulative assessment groups. The software system MCRA (Monte Carlo Risk Assessment) is available for stakeholders in pesticide risk assessment at mcra.rivm.nl. We describe the MCRA implementation of the methods as advised in the 2012 EFSA Guidance on probabilistic modelling, as well as more refined methods developed in the ACROPOLIS project. The emphasis is on cumulative assessments. Two approaches, sample-based and compound-based, are contrasted. It is shown that additional data on agricultural use of pesticides may give more realistic risk assessments. Examples are given of model and software validation of acute and chronic assessments, using both simulated data and comparisons against the previous release of MCRA and against the standard software DEEM-FCID used by the Environmental Protection Agency in the USA. It is shown that the EFSA Guidance pessimistic model may not always give an appropriate modelling of exposure. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A method proposal for cumulative environmental impact assessment based on the landscape vulnerability evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pavlickova, Katarina; Vyskupova, Monika

2015-01-01

Cumulative environmental impact assessment deals with the occasional use in practical application of environmental impact assessment process. The main reasons are the difficulty of cumulative impact identification caused by lack of data, inability to measure the intensity and spatial effect of all types of impacts and the uncertainty of their future evolution. This work presents a method proposal to predict cumulative impacts on the basis of landscape vulnerability evaluation. For this purpose, qualitative assessment of landscape ecological stability is conducted and major vulnerability indicators of environmental and socio-economic receptors are specified and valuated. Potential cumulative impacts and the overall impact significance are predicted quantitatively in modified Argonne multiple matrixes while considering the vulnerability of affected landscape receptors and the significance of impacts identified individually. The method was employed in the concrete environmental impact assessment process conducted in Slovakia. The results obtained in this case study reflect that this methodology is simple to apply, valid for all types of impacts and projects, inexpensive and not time-consuming. The objectivity of the partial methods used in this procedure is improved by quantitative landscape ecological stability evaluation, assignment of weights to vulnerability indicators based on the detailed characteristics of affected factors, and grading impact significance. - Highlights: • This paper suggests a method proposal for cumulative impact prediction. • The method includes landscape vulnerability evaluation. • The vulnerability of affected receptors is determined by their sensitivity. • This method can increase the objectivity of impact prediction in the EIA process

Quantitative methods for analysing cumulative effects on fish migration success: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, J E; Patterson, D A; Martins, E G; Cooke, S J; Hinch, S G

2012-07-01

It is often recognized, but seldom addressed, that a quantitative assessment of the cumulative effects, both additive and non-additive, of multiple stressors on fish survival would provide a more realistic representation of the factors that influence fish migration. This review presents a compilation of analytical methods applied to a well-studied fish migration, a more general review of quantitative multivariable methods, and a synthesis on how to apply new analytical techniques in fish migration studies. A compilation of adult migration papers from Fraser River sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka revealed a limited number of multivariable methods being applied and the sub-optimal reliance on univariable methods for multivariable problems. The literature review of fisheries science, general biology and medicine identified a large number of alternative methods for dealing with cumulative effects, with a limited number of techniques being used in fish migration studies. An evaluation of the different methods revealed that certain classes of multivariable analyses will probably prove useful in future assessments of cumulative effects on fish migration. This overview and evaluation of quantitative methods gathered from the disparate fields should serve as a primer for anyone seeking to quantify cumulative effects on fish migration survival. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

Valued ecosystem components for watershed cumulative effects: an analysis of environmental impact assessments in the South Saskatchewan River watershed, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Ball, Murray A; Noble, Bram F; Dubé, Monique G

2013-07-01

The accumulating effects of human development are threatening water quality and availability. In recognition of the constraints to cumulative effects assessment (CEA) under traditional environmental impact assessment (EIA), there is an emerging body of research dedicated to watershed-based cumulative effects assessment (WCEA). To advance the science of WCEA, however, a standard set of ecosystem components and indicators is required that can be used at the watershed scale, to inform effects-based understanding of cumulative change, and at the project scale, to inform regulatory-based project based impact assessment and mitigation. A major challenge, however, is that it is not clear how such ecosystem components and indicators for WCEA can or should be developed. This study examined the use of aquatic ecosystem components and indicators in EIA practice in the South Saskatchewan River watershed, Canada, to determine whether current practice at the project scale could be "scaled up" to support ecosystem component and indicator development for WCEA. The hierarchy of assessment components and indicators used in a sample of 35 environmental impact assessments was examined and the factors affecting aquatic ecosystem component selection and indicator use were identified. Results showed that public environmental impact statements are not necessarily publically accessible, thus limiting opportunities for data and information sharing from the project to the watershed scale. We also found no consistent terminology across the sample of impact statements, thus making comparison of assessment processes and results difficult. Regulatory compliance was found to be the dominant factor influencing the selection of ecosystem components and indicators for use in project assessment, rather than scientific reasoning, followed by the mandate of the responsible government agency for the assessment, public input to the assessment process, and preexisting water licensing arrangements external

Cumulative effects in Swedish EIA practice - difficulties and obstacles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waernbaeck, Antoienette; Hilding-Rydevik, Tuija

2009-01-01

The importance of considering cumulative effects (CE) in the context of environmental assessment is manifested in the EU regulations. The demands on the contents of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) documents explicitly ask for CE to be described. In Swedish environmental assessment documents CE are rarely described or included. The aim of this paper is to look into the reasons behind this fact in the Swedish context. The paper describes and analyse how actors implementing the EIA and SEA legislation in Sweden perceive the current situation in relation to the legislative demands and the inclusion of cumulative effects. Through semi-structured interviews the following questions have been explored: Is the phenomenon of CE discussed and included in the EIA/SEA process? What do the actors include in and what is their knowledge of the term and concept of CE? Which difficulties and obstacles do these actors experience and what possibilities for inclusion of CE do they see in the EIA/SEA process? A large number of obstacles and hindrances emerged from the interviews conducted. It can be concluded from the analysis that the will to act does seem to exist. A lack of knowledge in respect of how to include cumulative effects and a lack of clear regulations concerning how this should be done seem to be perceived as the main obstacles. The knowledge of the term and the phenomenon is furthermore quite narrow and not all encompassing. They experience that there is a lack of procedures in place. They also seem to lack knowledge of methods in relation to how to actually work, in practice, with CE and how to include CE in the EIA/SEA process. It can be stated that the existence of this poor picture in relation to practice concerning CE in the context of impact assessment mirrors the existing and so far rather vague demands in respect of the inclusion and assessment of CE in Swedish EIA and SEA legislation, regulations, guidelines and

Managing cumulative impacts: A key to sustainability?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunsaker, C.T.

1994-12-31

This paper addresses how science can be more effectively used in creating policy to manage cumulative effects on ecosystems. The paper focuses on the scientific techniques that we have to identify and to assess cumulative impacts on ecosystems. The term ``sustainable development`` was brought into common use by the World Commission on Environment and Development (The Brundtland Commission) in 1987. The Brundtland Commission report highlighted the need to simultaneously address developmental and environmental imperatives simultaneously by calling for development that ``meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the needs of future generations.`` We cannot claim to be working toward sustainable development until we can quantitatively assess cumulative impacts on the environment: The two concepts are inextricibally linked in that the elusiveness of cumulative effects likely has the greatest potential of keeping us from achieving sustainability. In this paper, assessment and management frameworks relevant to cumulative impacts are discussed along with recent literature on how to improve such assessments. When possible, examples are given for marine ecosystems.

Cumulative reproductive effects of in utero administration of mixtures of antiandrogens in male SD rats: synergy or additivity?

Science.gov (United States)

In 1996 the USEPA was charged under the FQPA to consider the cumulative effects of chemicals in their risk assessments. Our studies were conducted to provide a framework for assessing the cumulative effects of antiandrogens. Toxicants were administered individually or as mixtures...

A Review of Non-Chemical Stressors and Their Importance in Cumulative Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Cumulative exposure/risk assessments need to include non-chemical stressors as well as human activities and chemical data. Multiple stressor research can offer information on the interactions between chemical and non-chemical stressors needed for cumulative risk assessment resea...

32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16... § 651.16 Cumulative impacts. (a) NEPA analyses must assess cumulative effects, which are the impact on the environment resulting from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present...

Cumulative risk assessment of phthalate exposure of Danish children and adolescents using the hazard index approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søeborg, T; Frederiksen, H; Andersson, Anna-Maria

2012-01-01

Human risk assessment of chemicals is traditionally presented as the ratio between the actual level of exposure and an acceptable level of exposure, with the acceptable level of exposure most often being estimated by appropriate authorities. This approach is generally sound when assessing the risk...... of individual chemicals. However, several chemicals may concurrently target the same receptor, work through the same mechanism or in other ways induce the same effect(s) in the body. In these cases, cumulative risk assessment should be applied. The present study uses biomonitoring data from 129 Danish children...... and adolescents and resulting estimated daily intakes of four different phthalates. These daily intake estimates are used for a cumulative risk assessment with anti-androgenic effects as the endpoint using Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) values determined by the European Food Safety Authorities (EFSA) or Reference...

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

Perspectives on cumulative risks and impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Faust, John B

2010-01-01

Cumulative risks and impacts have taken on different meanings in different regulatory and programmatic contexts at federal and state government levels. Traditional risk assessment methodologies, with considerable limitations, can provide a framework for the evaluation of cumulative risks from chemicals. Under an environmental justice program in California, cumulative impacts are defined to include exposures, public health effects, or environmental effects in a geographic area from the emission or discharge of environmental pollution from all sources, through all media. Furthermore, the evaluation of these effects should take into account sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors where possible and to the extent data are available. Key aspects to this potential approach include the consideration of exposures (versus risk), socioeconomic factors, the geographic or community-level assessment scale, and the inclusion of not only health effects but also environmental effects as contributors to impact. Assessments of this type extend the boundaries of the types of information that toxicologists generally provide for risk management decisions.

Cumulative Human Impacts on Coral Reefs: Assessing Risk and Management Implications for Brazilian Coral Reefs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael A. Magris

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Effective management of coral reefs requires strategies tailored to cope with cumulative disturbances from human activities. In Brazil, where coral reefs are a priority for conservation, intensifying threats from local and global stressors are of paramount concern to management agencies. Using a cumulative impact assessment approach, our goal was to inform management actions for coral reefs in Brazil by assessing their exposure to multiple stressors (fishing, land-based activities, coastal development, mining, aquaculture, shipping, and global warming. We calculated an index of the risk to cumulative impacts: (i assuming uniform sensitivity of coral reefs to stressors; and (ii using impact weights to reflect varying tolerance levels of coral reefs to each stressor. We also predicted the index in both the presence and absence of global warming. We found that 16% and 37% of coral reefs had high to very high risk of cumulative impacts, without and with information on sensitivity respectively, and 42% of reefs had low risk to cumulative impacts from both local and global stressors. Our outputs are the first comprehensive spatial dataset of cumulative impact on coral reefs in Brazil, and show that areas requiring attention mostly corresponded to those closer to population centres. We demonstrate how the relationships between risks from local and global stressors can be used to derive strategic management actions.

Stakeholder attitudes towards cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides.

Science.gov (United States)

Verbeke, Wim; Van Loo, Ellen J; Vanhonacker, Filiep; Delcour, Ilse; Spanoghe, Pieter; van Klaveren, Jacob D

2015-05-01

This study evaluates the attitudes and perspectives of different stakeholder groups (agricultural producers, pesticide manufacturers, trading companies, retailers, regulators, food safety authorities, scientists and NGOs) towards the concepts of cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides by means of qualitative in-depth interviews (n = 15) and a quantitative stakeholder survey (n = 65). The stakeholders involved generally agreed that the use of chemical pesticides is needed, primarily for meeting the need of feeding the growing world population, while clearly acknowledging the problematic nature of human exposure to pesticide residues. Current monitoring was generally perceived to be adequate, but the timeliness and consistency of monitoring practices across countries were questioned. The concept of cumulative exposure assessment was better understood by stakeholders than the concept of aggregate exposure assessment. Identified pitfalls were data availability, data limitations, sources and ways of dealing with uncertainties, as well as information and training needs. Regulators and food safety authorities were perceived as the stakeholder groups for whom cumulative and aggregate pesticide exposure assessment methods and tools would be most useful and acceptable. Insights obtained from this exploratory study have been integrated in the development of targeted and stakeholder-tailored dissemination and training programmes that were implemented within the EU-FP7 project ACROPOLIS. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulative ecological and socioeconomic effects of forest policies in coastal Oregon.

Science.gov (United States)

T.A. Spies; K.N. Johnson; K.M. Burnett; J.L. Ohmann; B.C. McComb; G.H. Reeves; P. Bettinger; J.D. Kline; B. Garber-Yonts

2007-01-01

Forest biodiversity policies in multiownership landscapes are typically developed in an uncoordinated fashion with little consideration of their interactions or possible unintended cumulative effects. We conducted an assessment of some of the ecological and socioeconomic effects of recently enacted forest management policies in the 2.3-million-ha Coast Range...

Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Müller, Anne Kirstine; Nielsen, Elsa

2008-01-01

A cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz in combination has been carried out using an Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IPRA) model. In the model, variability in both exposure and sensitivity between individuals were combined...

Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Müller, A.K.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; van der Voet, H.; Nielsen, E.; Ladefoged, O.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three

Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Muller, A.K.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; Voet, van der H.; Nielsen, E.; Ladefoged, O.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three

Cumulative assessment: does it improve students’ knowledge acquisition and retention?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cecilio Fernandes, Dario; Nagtegaal, Manouk; Noordzij, Gera; Tio, Rene

2017-01-01

Introduction Assessment for learning means changing students’ behaviour regarding their learning. Cumulative assessment has been shown to increase students’ self-study time and spread their study time throughout a course. However, there was no difference regarding students’ knowledge at the end of

Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Margaret M. MacDonell

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

Family Resources and Effects on Child Behavior Problem Interventions: A Cumulative Risk Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Tømmerås, Truls; Kjøbli, John

2017-01-01

Family resources have been associated with health care inequality in general and with social gradients in treatment outcomes for children with behavior problems. However, there is limited evidence concerning cumulative risk-the accumulation of social and economic disadvantages in a family-and whether cumulative risk moderates the outcomes of evidence-based parent training interventions. We used data from two randomized controlled trials evaluating high-intensity ( n  = 137) and low-intensity ( n  = 216) versions of Parent Management Training-Oregon (PMTO) with a 50:50 allocation between participants receiving PMTO interventions or regular care. A nine-item family cumulative risk index tapping socioeconomic resources and parental health was constructed to assess the family's exposure to risk. Autoregressive structured equation models (SEM) were run to investigate whether cumulative risk moderated child behaviors at post-treatment and follow-up (6 months). Our results showed opposite social gradients for the treatment conditions: the children exposed to cumulative risk in a pooled sample of both PMTO groups displayed lower levels of behavior problems, whereas children with identical risk exposures who received regular care experienced more problems. Furthermore, our results indicated that the social gradients differed between PMTO interventions: children exposed to cumulative risk in the low-intensity (five sessions) Brief Parent Training fared equally well as their high-resource counterparts, whereas children exposed to cumulative risk in the high-intensity PMTO (12 sessions) experienced vastly better treatment effects. Providing evidence-based parent training seem to be an effective way to counteract health care inequality, and the more intensive PMTO treatment seemed to be a particularly effective way to help families with cumulative risk.

TH-AB-207A-04: Assessment of Patients’ Cumulative Effective Dose From CT Examinations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bostani, M; Cagnon, C; Sepahdari, A; Beckett, K; Oshiro, T; McNitt-Gray, M [UCLA School of Medicine, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: The Joint Commission requires institutions to consider patient’s age and recent imaging exams when deciding on the most appropriate type of imaging exam. Additionally, knowing patient’s imaging history can help prevent duplicate scans. Radiation dose management software affords new opportunities to identify and utilize patients with high cumulative doses as one proxy for subsequent review of imaging history and opportunities in avoiding redundant exams. Methods: Using dose management software (Radimetrics, Bayer Healthcare) a total of 72073 CT examinations performed from Jan 2015 to Jan 2016 were examined to categorize patients with a cumulative effective dose of 100 mSv and above. This threshold was selected based on epidemiological studies on populations exposed to radiation, which demonstrate a statistical increase of cancer risk at doses above 100 mSv. Histories of patients with highest cumulative dose and highest number of exams were further investigated by a Radiologist for appropriateness of recurrent studies and potential opportunities for reduction. Results: Out of 34762 patients, 927 (2.7%) were identified with a cumulative dose of 100 mSv and above. The highest cumulative dose (842 mSv) belonged to an oncology patient who underwent 2 diagnostic exams and 9 interventional ablative CT guided procedures. The patient with highest number of exams (56 counts) and cumulative dose of 170 mSv was a 17 year old trauma patient. An imaging history review of these two patients did not suggest any superfluous scans. Conclusion: Our limited pilot study suggests that recurrent CT exams for patients with oncologic or severe trauma history may be warranted and appropriate. As a result, for future studies we will be focusing on high dose patient cohorts not associated with oncology or severe trauma. Additionally, the review process itself has suggested areas for potential improvement in patient care, including improved documentation and Radiologist involvement

TH-AB-207A-04: Assessment of Patients’ Cumulative Effective Dose From CT Examinations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bostani, M; Cagnon, C; Sepahdari, A; Beckett, K; Oshiro, T; McNitt-Gray, M

2016-01-01

Purpose: The Joint Commission requires institutions to consider patient’s age and recent imaging exams when deciding on the most appropriate type of imaging exam. Additionally, knowing patient’s imaging history can help prevent duplicate scans. Radiation dose management software affords new opportunities to identify and utilize patients with high cumulative doses as one proxy for subsequent review of imaging history and opportunities in avoiding redundant exams. Methods: Using dose management software (Radimetrics, Bayer Healthcare) a total of 72073 CT examinations performed from Jan 2015 to Jan 2016 were examined to categorize patients with a cumulative effective dose of 100 mSv and above. This threshold was selected based on epidemiological studies on populations exposed to radiation, which demonstrate a statistical increase of cancer risk at doses above 100 mSv. Histories of patients with highest cumulative dose and highest number of exams were further investigated by a Radiologist for appropriateness of recurrent studies and potential opportunities for reduction. Results: Out of 34762 patients, 927 (2.7%) were identified with a cumulative dose of 100 mSv and above. The highest cumulative dose (842 mSv) belonged to an oncology patient who underwent 2 diagnostic exams and 9 interventional ablative CT guided procedures. The patient with highest number of exams (56 counts) and cumulative dose of 170 mSv was a 17 year old trauma patient. An imaging history review of these two patients did not suggest any superfluous scans. Conclusion: Our limited pilot study suggests that recurrent CT exams for patients with oncologic or severe trauma history may be warranted and appropriate. As a result, for future studies we will be focusing on high dose patient cohorts not associated with oncology or severe trauma. Additionally, the review process itself has suggested areas for potential improvement in patient care, including improved documentation and Radiologist involvement

CUMULATIVE REPRODUCTIVE EFFECTS OF IN UTERO ADMINISTRATION OF A MIXTURE OF TEN “ANTIANDROGENS” IN MALE SD RATS: SYNERGY OR ADDITIVITY?

Science.gov (United States)

In 1996, the USEPA was charged under FQPA to consider the cumulative effects of chemicals in their risk assessments. We are conducting studies to provide a framework for assessing the cumulative effects of antiandrogens. In the current study, ten “antiandrogenic” chemicals were a...

A Conceptual Framework for the Assessment of Cumulative Exposure to Air Pollution at a Fine Spatial Scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kihal-Talantikite Wahida

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Many epidemiological studies examining long-term health effects of exposure to air pollutants have characterized exposure by the outdoor air concentrations at sites that may be distant to subjects’ residences at different points in time. The temporal and spatial mobility of subjects and the spatial scale of exposure assessment could thus lead to misclassification in the cumulative exposure estimation. This paper attempts to fill the gap regarding cumulative exposure assessment to air pollution at a fine spatial scale in epidemiological studies investigating long-term health effects. We propose a conceptual framework showing how major difficulties in cumulative long-term exposure assessment could be surmounted. We then illustrate this conceptual model on the case of exposure to NO2 following two steps: (i retrospective reconstitution of NO2 concentrations at a fine spatial scale; and (ii a novel approach to assigning the time-relevant exposure estimates at the census block level, using all available data on residential mobility throughout a 10- to 20-year period prior to that for which the health events are to be detected. Our conceptual framework is both flexible and convenient for the needs of different epidemiological study designs.

A Conceptual Framework for the Assessment of Cumulative Exposure to Air Pollution at a Fine Spatial Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Wahida, Kihal-Talantikite; Padilla, Cindy M.; Denis, Zmirou-Navier; Olivier, Blanchard; Géraldine, Le Nir; Philippe, Quenel; Séverine, Deguen

2016-01-01

Many epidemiological studies examining long-term health effects of exposure to air pollutants have characterized exposure by the outdoor air concentrations at sites that may be distant to subjects’ residences at different points in time. The temporal and spatial mobility of subjects and the spatial scale of exposure assessment could thus lead to misclassification in the cumulative exposure estimation. This paper attempts to fill the gap regarding cumulative exposure assessment to air pollution at a fine spatial scale in epidemiological studies investigating long-term health effects. We propose a conceptual framework showing how major difficulties in cumulative long-term exposure assessment could be surmounted. We then illustrate this conceptual model on the case of exposure to NO2 following two steps: (i) retrospective reconstitution of NO2 concentrations at a fine spatial scale; and (ii) a novel approach to assigning the time-relevant exposure estimates at the census block level, using all available data on residential mobility throughout a 10- to 20-year period prior to that for which the health events are to be detected. Our conceptual framework is both flexible and convenient for the needs of different epidemiological study designs. PMID:26999170

Modeling cumulative effects in life cycle assessment: the case of fertilizer in wheat production contributing to the global warming potential.

Science.gov (United States)

Laratte, Bertrand; Guillaume, Bertrand; Kim, Junbeum; Birregah, Babiga

2014-05-15

This paper aims at presenting a dynamic indicator for life cycle assessment (LCA) measuring cumulative impacts over time of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fertilizers used for wheat cultivation and production. Our approach offers a dynamic indicator of global warming potential (GWP), one of the most used indicator of environmental impacts (e.g. in the Kyoto Protocol). For a case study, the wheat production in France was selected and considered by using data from official sources about fertilizer consumption and production of wheat. We propose to assess GWP environmental impact based on LCA method. The system boundary is limited to the fertilizer production for 1 ton of wheat produced (functional unit) from 1910 to 2010. As applied to wheat production in France, traditional LCA shows a maximum GWP impact of 500 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production, whereas the GWP impact of wheat production over time with our approach to dynamic LCA and its cumulative effects increases to 18,000 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production. In this paper, only one substance and one impact assessment indicator are presented. However, the methodology can be generalized and improved by using different substances and indicators. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cumulative effective and individual organ dose levels in paediatric patients undergoing multiple catheterizations for congenital heart disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, T.P.; Brennan, P.C.; Ryan, E.

2017-01-01

This study examines the cumulative radiation dose levels received by a group of children who underwent multiple cardiac catheterisation procedures during the investigation and management of congenital heart disease (CHD). The purpose is to calculate cumulative doses, identify higher dose individuals, outline the inconsistencies with risk assessment and encourage the establishment of dose databases in order to facilitate the longitudinal research necessary to better understand health risks. A retrospective review of patient records for 117 paediatric patients who have undergone two or more cardiac catheterizations for the investigation of CHD was undertaken. This cohort consisted of patients who were catheterised over a period from September 2002 to August 2014. The age distribution was from newborn to 17 y. Archived kerma-area product (P KA ) and fluoroscopy time (T) readings were retrieved and analysed. Cumulative effective and individual organ doses were determined. The cumulative P KA levels ranged from 1.8 to 651.2 Gycm 2 , whilst cumulative effective dose levels varied from 2 to 259 mSv. The cumulative fluoroscopy time was shown to vary from 8.1 to 193.5 min. Median cumulative organ doses ranged from 3 to 94 mGy. Cumulative effective dose levels are highly variable but may exceed 250 mSv. Individual organ and effective dose measurements remain useful for comparison purposes between institutions although current methodologies used for determining lifetime risks are inadequate. (authors)

Weak self-directed learning skills hamper performance in cumulative assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tio, Rene A.; Stegmann, Mariken E.; Koerts, Janke; van Os, Titus W. D. P.; Cohen-Schotanus, Janke

2016-01-01

Background: Self-regulated learning is an important determinant of academic performance. Previous research has shown that cumulative assessment encourages students to work harder and improve their results. However, not all students seem to respond as intended. We investigated the influence of

78 FR 25440 - Request for Information and Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-01

... Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment AGENCY: Office of the Science Advisor, Environmental... influence exposures, dose-response or risk/hazard posed by environmental contaminant exposures, and methods... who wish to receive further information about submitting information on methods for cumulative risk...

Non-Chemical Stressors and Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Current Initiatives and Potential Air Pollutant Interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Ari S.; Sax, Sonja N.; Wason, Susan C.; Campleman, Sharan L.

2011-01-01

Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit

Cumulative radiation effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirk, J.; Gray, W.M.; Watson, E.R.

1977-01-01

In five previous papers, the concept of Cumulative Radiation Effect (CRE) has been presented as a scale of accumulative sub-tolerance radiation damage, with a unique value of the CRE describing a specific level of radiation effect. Simple nomographic and tabular methods for the solution of practical problems in radiotherapy are now described. An essential feature of solving a CRE problem is firstly to present it in a concise and readily appreciated form, and, to do this, nomenclature has been introduced to describe schedules and regimes as compactly as possible. Simple algebraic equations have been derived to describe the CRE achieved by multi-schedule regimes. In these equations, the equivalence conditions existing at the junctions between schedules are not explicit and the equations are based on the CREs of the constituent schedules assessed individually without reference to their context in the regime as a whole. This independent evaluation of CREs for each schedule has resulted in a considerable simplification in the calculation of complex problems. The calculations are further simplified by the use of suitable tables and nomograms, so that the mathematics involved is reduced to simple arithmetical operations which require at the most the use of a slide rule but can be done by hand. The order of procedure in the presentation and calculation of CRE problems can be summarised in an evaluation procedure sheet. The resulting simple methods for solving practical problems of any complexity on the CRE-system are demonstrated by a number of examples. (author)

A Framework to Assess the Cumulative Hydrological Impacts of Dams on flow Regime

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y.; Wang, D.

2016-12-01

In this study we proposed a framework to assess the cumulative impact of dams on hydrological regime, and the impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on flow regime in Yangtze River were investigated with the framework. We reconstructed the unregulated flow series to compare with the regulated flow series in the same period. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration parameters were used to examine the hydrological regime change. Among IHA parameters, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Principal Components Analysis identified the representative indicators of hydrological alterations. Eco-surplus and eco-deficit showed that the reservoir also changed the seasonal regime of the flows in autumn and winter. Annual extreme flows and October flows changes lead to negative ecological implications downstream from the Three Gorges Dam. Ecological operation for the Three Gorges Dam is necessary to mitigate the negative effects on the river ecosystem in the middle reach of Yangtze River. The framework proposed here could be a robust method to assess the cumulative impacts of reservoir operation.

Looking Ahead: The Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munn, R.E.

1994-01-01

Proceeding of a workshop on the Inclusion of Long-Term Futures in Cumulative Environmental Assessments (CEA's) were presented.. Also included were three working group reports and papers presented at the conference. The issue of the concept of Cumulative Environmental Assessments was summarized, along with the current transformation to a more global outlook. The concepts and methodological questions associated with ecology and economics were tackled. CEA methods were discussed and a contrast was made with land-use planning. The importance of long-term monitoring programs was introduced and examples of early warning systems were given. Social science issues behind CEAs were also discussed. Recommendation e for preparing CEA's, the design of early warning monitoring systems, and public involvement, were made.. Contributed papers covered topics related to environmental assessment, pollution, and climate change

Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Müller, Anne Kirstine; Bosgra, Sieto; Boon, Polly E.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three......) and the fraction of individuals with IMoEs vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz is not likely to be of concern for the reproductive development of their male foetuses. However...

Cumulative effect in multiple production processes on nuclei

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Golubyatnikova, E.S.; Shmonin, V.L.; Kalinkin, B.N.

1989-01-01

It is shown that the cumulative effect is a natural result of the process of hadron multiple production in nuclear reactions. Interpretation is made of the universality of slopes of inclusive spectra and other characteristics of cumulative hadrons. The character of information from such reactions is discussed, which could be helpful in studying the mechanism of multiparticle production. 27 refs.; 4 figs

Cumulative effects of forest management activities: how might they occur?

Science.gov (United States)

R. M. Rice; R. B. Thomas

1985-01-01

Concerns are often voiced about possible environmental damage as the result of the cumulative sedimentation effects of logging and forest road construction. In response to these concerns, National Forests are developing procedures to reduce the possibility that their activities may lead to unacceptable cumulative effects

76 FR 69726 - Pyrethrins/Pyrethroid Cumulative Risk Assessment; Notice of Availability

Science.gov (United States)

2011-11-09

... exposure to multiple chemicals that have a common mechanism of toxicity when making regulatory decisions... stakeholders including environmental, human health, farm worker, and agricultural advocates; the chemical... Cumulative Risk Assessment; Notice of Availability AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION...

Cumulative human impacts on marine predators.

Science.gov (United States)

Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J; Halpern, Benjamin S; Breed, Greg A; Nickel, Barry; Teutschel, Nicole M; Crowder, Larry B; Benson, Scott; Dutton, Peter H; Bailey, Helen; Kappes, Michelle A; Kuhn, Carey E; Weise, Michael J; Mate, Bruce; Shaffer, Scott A; Hassrick, Jason L; Henry, Robert W; Irvine, Ladd; McDonald, Birgitte I; Robinson, Patrick W; Block, Barbara A; Costa, Daniel P

2013-01-01

Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact (CUI) on marine predators by combining electronic tracking data of eight protected predator species (n=685 individuals) in the California Current Ecosystem with data on 24 anthropogenic stressors. We show significant variation in CUI with some of the highest impacts within US National Marine Sanctuaries. High variation in underlying species and cumulative impact distributions means that neither alone is sufficient for effective spatial management. Instead, comprehensive management approaches accounting for both cumulative human impacts and trade-offs among multiple stressors must be applied in planning the use of marine resources.

Cumulative effective dose associated with radiography and CT of adolescents with spinal injuries.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemburg, Stefan P; Peters, Soeren A; Roggenland, Daniela; Nicolas, Volkmar; Heyer, Christoph M

2010-12-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze the quantity and distribution of cumulative effective doses in diagnostic imaging of adolescents with spinal injuries. At a level 1 trauma center from July 2003 through June 2009, imaging procedures during initial evaluation and hospitalization and after discharge of all patients 10-20 years old with spinal fractures were retrospectively analyzed. The cumulative effective doses for all imaging studies were calculated, and the doses to patients with spinal injuries who had multiple traumatic injuries were compared with the doses to patients with spinal injuries but without multiple injuries. The significance level was set at 5%. Imaging studies of 72 patients (32 with multiple injuries; average age, 17.5 years) entailed a median cumulative effective dose of 18.89 mSv. Patients with multiple injuries had a significantly higher total cumulative effective dose (29.70 versus 10.86 mSv, p cumulative effective dose to multiple injury patients during the initial evaluation (18.39 versus 2.83 mSv, p cumulative effective dose. Adolescents with spinal injuries receive a cumulative effective dose equal to that of adult trauma patients and nearly three times that of pediatric trauma patients. Areas of focus in lowering cumulative effective dose should be appropriate initial estimation of trauma severity and careful selection of CT scan parameters.

Not so Black and White: environmental justice and cumulative impact assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krieg, Eric J.; Faber, Daniel R.

2004-01-01

A growing number of scientific studies in recent years have investigated disparate exposure to ecological hazards in American society. Working from an environmental justice perspective, this body of research consistently reveals that poor communities of color are most likely to bear a disproportionate burden of negative externalities. These studies utilize a wide range of research methodologies, including various indicators of ecological hazards (e.g., proximity to waste sites, industrial emissions, ambient air quality), but few, if any, utilize composite measures to approximate cumulative environmental impact. Consequently, the environmental justice (EJ) literature is characterized by a failure to effectively measure overall impact from an extensive range of ecological hazards. Limitations on available data make this a serious problem for present and future studies. We argue that cumulative measures of environmental impact can play an important role in furthering our understanding of environmental injustices in the United States. In this study of Massachusetts, we develop and implement such a cumulative measure of negative environmental impacts. By controlling for the density and severity of ecological hazardous sites and facilities within every community in the state, we demonstrate that exposure patterns take a generally linear distribution when analyzed by race and class. So, while our results reaffirm previous findings that low-income communities and communities of color bear significantly greater ecological burdens than predominantly White and more affluent communities, our findings also suggest that environmental injustices exist on a remarkably consistent continuum for nearly all communities. In other words, as the minority population and lower-income composition of a community increases, correspondingly, so does cumulative exposure to environmental hazards. In this respect, communities which are more racially mixed and of moderate income status that are

Unique versus cumulative effects of physical and sexual assault on patterns of adolescent substance use

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Charak, R.; Koot, H.M.; Dvorak, R.D.; Elklit, A.; Elhai, J.D.

2015-01-01

The present study assessed the unique versus cumulative effects of physical and sexual assault, on patterns of substance-use in adolescents. It was hypothesized that experiencing a single assault (physical or sexual) when compared with exposure to both physical and sexual assault would be more

Cumulative watershed effects: a research perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Leslie M. Reid; Robert R. Ziemer

1989-01-01

A cumulative watershed effect (CWE) is any response to multiple land-use activities that is caused by, or results in, altered watershed function. The CWE issue is politically defined, as is the significance of particular impacts. But the processes generating CWEs are the traditional focus of geomorphology and ecology, and have thus been studied for decades. The CWE...

The effects of cumulative practice on mathematics problem solving.

Science.gov (United States)

Mayfield, Kristin H; Chase, Philip N

2002-01-01

This study compared three different methods of teaching five basic algebra rules to college students. All methods used the same procedures to teach the rules and included four 50-question review sessions interspersed among the training of the individual rules. The differences among methods involved the kinds of practice provided during the four review sessions. Participants who received cumulative practice answered 50 questions covering a mix of the rules learned prior to each review session. Participants who received a simple review answered 50 questions on one previously trained rule. Participants who received extra practice answered 50 extra questions on the rule they had just learned. Tests administered after each review included new questions for applying each rule (application items) and problems that required novel combinations of the rules (problem-solving items). On the final test, the cumulative group outscored the other groups on application and problem-solving items. In addition, the cumulative group solved the problem-solving items significantly faster than the other groups. These results suggest that cumulative practice of component skills is an effective method of training problem solving.

Residual, direct and cumulative effect of zinc application on wheat and rice yield under rice-wheat syst

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Khan

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Zinc (Zn deficiency is prevalent particularly on calcareous soils of arid and semiarid region. A field experiment was conducted to investigate the direct, residual and cumulative effect of zinc on the yield of wheat and rice in permanent layout for two consecutive years, 2004-05 and 2005-06 at Arid Zone Research Institute D.I. Khan. Soil under study was deficient in Zn (0.8 mg kg-1. Effect of Zn on yield, Zn concentrations in leaf and soils were assessed using wheat variety Naseer-2000 and rice variety IRRI-6. Three rates of Zn, ranging from 0 to 10 kg ha-1 in soil, were applied as zinc sulphate (ZnSO4. 7H2O along with basal dose fertilization of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. Mature leaf and soil samples were collected at panicle initiation stage. The results showed that grain yield of wheat and rice was significantly increased by the direct application of 5 and 10 kg Zn ha-1. Highest grain yield of wheat (5467 kg ha-1 was recorded with the direct application of 10 kg Zn ha-1 while 4994 kg ha-1 was recorded with the cumulative application of 10 kg Zn ha-1 but the yield increase due to residual effect of Zn was statistically lower than the cumulative effect of Zn. Maximum paddy yield was recorded with the cumulative application ofZn followed by residual and direct applied 10 and 5 kg Zn kg ha-1, respectively. Zn concentration in soils ranged from 0.3 to 1.5 mg kg-1 in wheat and 0.24 to 2.40 mg kg-1 in rice, while in leaves it ranged from 18-48 mg kg-1 in wheat and 15-52 mg kg-1 in rice. The concentration of Zn in soil and leaves increased due to the treatments in the order; cumulative > residual > direct effect > control (without Zn. The yield attributes like 1000- grain weight, number of spikes, spike length and plant height were increased by the residual, direct and cumulative effect of Zn levels; however, the magnitude of increase was higher in cumulative effect than residual and direct effect of Zn, respectively. Under Zn-deficient soil

Cumulative Mass and NIOSH Variable Lifting Index Method for Risk Assessment: Possible Relations.

Science.gov (United States)

Stucchi, Giulia; Battevi, Natale; Pandolfi, Monica; Galinotti, Luca; Iodice, Simona; Favero, Chiara

2018-02-01

Objective The aim of this study was to explore whether the Variable Lifting Index (VLI) can be corrected for cumulative mass and thus test its efficacy in predicting the risk of low-back pain (LBP). Background A validation study of the VLI method was published in this journal reporting promising results. Although several studies highlighted a positive correlation between cumulative load and LBP, cumulative mass has never been considered in any of the studies investigating the relationship between manual material handling and LBP. Method Both VLI and cumulative mass were calculated for 2,374 exposed subjects using a systematic approach. Due to high variability of cumulative mass values, a stratification within VLI categories was employed. Dummy variables (1-4) were assigned to each class and used as a multiplier factor for the VLI, resulting in a new index (VLI_CMM). Data on LBP were collected by occupational physicians at the study sites. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of acute LBP within levels of risk exposure when compared with a control group formed by 1,028 unexposed subjects. Results Data showed greatly variable values of cumulative mass across all VLI classes. The potential effect of cumulative mass on damage emerged as not significant ( p value = .6526). Conclusion When comparing VLI_CMM with raw VLI, the former failed to prove itself as a better predictor of LBP risk. Application To recognize cumulative mass as a modifier, especially for lumbar degenerative spine diseases, authors of future studies should investigate potential association between the VLI and other damage variables.

Cumulative risk, cumulative outcome: a 20-year longitudinal study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leslie Atkinson

Full Text Available Cumulative risk (CR models provide some of the most robust findings in the developmental literature, predicting numerous and varied outcomes. Typically, however, these outcomes are predicted one at a time, across different samples, using concurrent designs, longitudinal designs of short duration, or retrospective designs. We predicted that a single CR index, applied within a single sample, would prospectively predict diverse outcomes, i.e., depression, intelligence, school dropout, arrest, smoking, and physical disease from childhood to adulthood. Further, we predicted that number of risk factors would predict number of adverse outcomes (cumulative outcome; CO. We also predicted that early CR (assessed at age 5/6 explains variance in CO above and beyond that explained by subsequent risk (assessed at ages 12/13 and 19/20. The sample consisted of 284 individuals, 48% of whom were diagnosed with a speech/language disorder. Cumulative risk, assessed at 5/6-, 12/13-, and 19/20-years-old, predicted aforementioned outcomes at age 25/26 in every instance. Furthermore, number of risk factors was positively associated with number of negative outcomes. Finally, early risk accounted for variance beyond that explained by later risk in the prediction of CO. We discuss these findings in terms of five criteria posed by these data, positing a "mediated net of adversity" model, suggesting that CR may increase some central integrative factor, simultaneously augmenting risk across cognitive, quality of life, psychiatric and physical health outcomes.

14 CFR Section 18 - Objective Classification-Cumulative Effect of Changes in Accounting Principles

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... of Changes in Accounting Principles Section 18 Section 18 Aeronautics and Space OFFICE OF THE... Objective Classification—Cumulative Effect of Changes in Accounting Principles 98Cumulative Effect of Changes in Accounting Principles. Record here the difference between the amount of retained earnings at...

Cumulative effects of road de-icing salt on amphibian behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Denoël, Mathieu; Bichot, Marion; Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Delcourt, Johann; Ylieff, Marc; Kestemont, Patrick; Poncin, Pascal

2010-08-15

Despite growing evidence of the detrimental effect of chemical substances on organisms, limited research has focused on changes in behavioral patterns, in part due to the difficulties to obtain detailed quantitative data. Recent developments in efficient computer-based video analyses have allowed testing pesticide effects on model species such as the zebrafish. However, these new techniques have not yet been applied to amphibians and directly to conservation issues, i.e., to assess toxicological risks on threatened species. We used video-tracking analyses to test a quantitative effect of an environmental contaminant on the locomotion of amphibian tadpoles (Rana temporaria) by taking into account cumulative effects. Because recent research has demonstrated effects of de-icing salts on survival and community structure, we used sodium chloride in our experimental design (25 replicates, 4 concentrations, 4 times) to test for an effect at the scale of behavior at environmentally relevant concentrations. Analysis of 372 1-h video-tracks (5 samples/s) showed a complex action of salts on behavioral patterns with a dose and cumulative response over time. Although no effects were found on mortality or growth, the highest salt concentrations reduced the speed and movement of tadpoles in comparison with control treatments. The reduced locomotor performance could have detrimental consequences in terms of tadpoles' responses to competition and predation and may be an indicator of the low concentration effect of the contaminant. On one hand, this study demonstrates the usefulness of examining behavior to address conservation issues and understand the complex action of environmental factors and, more particularly, pollutants on organisms. On the other hand, our results highlight the need of new computerized techniques to quantitatively analyze these patterns. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An evaluation paradigm for cumulative impact analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

1988-09-01

Cumulative impact analysis is examined from a conceptual decision-making perspective, focusing on its implicit and explicit purposes as suggested within the policy and procedures for environmental impact analysis of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and its implementing regulations. In this article it is also linked to different evaluation and decision-making conventions, contrasting a regulatory context with a comprehensive planning framework. The specific problems that make the application of cumulative impact analysis a virtually intractable evaluation requirement are discussed in connection with the federal regulation of wetlands uses. The relatively familiar US Army Corps of Engineers' (the Corps) permit program, in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) responsibilities in managing its share of the Section 404 regulatory program requirements, is used throughout as the realistic context for highlighting certain pragmatic evaluation aspects of cumulative impact assessment. To understand the purposes of cumulative impact analysis (CIA), a key distinction must be made between the implied comprehensive and multiobjective evaluation purposes of CIA, promoted through the principles and policies contained in NEPA, and the more commonly conducted and limited assessment of cumulative effects (ACE), which focuses largely on the ecological effects of human actions. Based on current evaluation practices within the Corps' and EPA's permit programs, it is shown that the commonly used screening approach to regulating wetlands uses is not compatible with the purposes of CIA, nor is the environmental impact statement (EIS) an appropriate vehicle for evaluating the variety of objectives and trade-offs needed as part of CIA. A heuristic model that incorporates the basic elements of CIA is developed, including the idea of trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental protection goals carried out within the context of environmental

Cumulative (DisAdvantage and the Matthew Effect in Life-Course Analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miia Bask

Full Text Available To foster a deeper understanding of the mechanisms behind inequality in society, it is crucial to work with well-defined concepts associated with such mechanisms. The aim of this paper is to define cumulative (disadvantage and the Matthew effect. We argue that cumulative (disadvantage is an intra-individual micro-level phenomenon, that the Matthew effect is an inter-individual macro-level phenomenon and that an appropriate measure of the Matthew effect focuses on the mechanism or dynamic process that generates inequality. The Matthew mechanism is, therefore, a better name for the phenomenon, where we provide a novel measure of the mechanism, including a proof-of-principle analysis using disposable personal income data. Finally, because socio-economic theory should be able to explain cumulative (disadvantage and the Matthew mechanism when they are detected in data, we discuss the types of models that may explain the phenomena. We argue that interactions-based models in the literature traditions of analytical sociology and statistical mechanics serve this purpose.

Cumulative human impacts on marine predators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J

2013-01-01

Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact...

Application of the ELDO approach to assess cumulative eye lens doses for interventional cardiologists

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farah, J.; Jacob, S.; Clairand, I.; Struelens, L.; Vanhavere, F.; Auvinen, A.; Koukorava, C.; Schnelzer, M.

2015-01-01

In preparation of a large European epidemiological study on the relation between eye lens dose and the occurrence of lens opacities, the European ELDO project focused on the development of practical methods to estimate retrospectively cumulative eye lens dose for interventional medical professionals exposed to radiation. The present paper applies one of the ELDO approaches, correlating eye lens dose to whole-body doses, to assess cumulative eye lens dose for 14 different Finnish interventional cardiologists for whom annual whole-body dose records were available for their entire working period. The estimated cumulative left and right eye lens dose ranged from 8 to 264 mSv and 6 to 225 mSv, respectively. In addition, calculations showed annual eye lens doses sometimes exceeding the new ICRP annual limit of 20 mSv. The work also highlights the large uncertainties associated with the application of such an approach proving the need for dedicated dosimetry systems in the routine monitoring of the eye lens dose. (authors)

Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simmons, C T; Matthews, H D

2016-01-01

Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO 2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO 2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO 2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO 2 . We find that when we isolate the CO 2 -induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO 2 . We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO 2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions. (letter)

Cumulative radiation effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirk, J.; Cain, O.; Gray, W.M.

1977-01-01

Cumulative Radiation Effect (CRE) represents a scale of accumulative sub-tolerance radiation damage, with a unique value of the CRE describing a specific level of radiation effect. Computer calculations have been used to simplify the evaluation of problems associated with the applications of the CRE-system in radiotherapy. In a general appraisal of the applications of computers to the CRE-system, the various problems encountered in clinical radiotherapy have been categorised into those involving the evaluation of a CRE at a point in tissue and those involving the calculation of CRE distributions. As a general guide, the computer techniques adopted at the Glasgow Institute of Radiotherapeutics for the solution of CRE problems are presented, and consist basically of a package of three interactive programs for point CRE calculations and a Fortran program which calculates CRE distributions for iso-effect treatment planning. Many examples are given to demonstrate the applications of these programs, and special emphasis has been laid on the problem of treating a point in tissue with different doses per fraction on alternate treatment days. The wide range of possible clinical applications of the CRE-system has been outlined and described under the categories of routine clinical applications, retrospective and prospective surveys of patient treatment, and experimental and theoretical research. Some of these applications such as the results of surveys and studies of time optimisation of treatment schedules could have far-reaching consequences and lead to significant improvements in treatment and cure rates with the minimum damage to normal tissue. (author)

Towards a framework for assessment and management of cumulative human impacts on marine food webs.

Science.gov (United States)

Giakoumi, Sylvaine; Halpern, Benjamin S; Michel, Loïc N; Gobert, Sylvie; Sini, Maria; Boudouresque, Charles-François; Gambi, Maria-Cristina; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Lejeune, Pierre; Montefalcone, Monica; Pergent, Gerard; Pergent-Martini, Christine; Sanchez-Jerez, Pablo; Velimirov, Branko; Vizzini, Salvatrice; Abadie, Arnaud; Coll, Marta; Guidetti, Paolo; Micheli, Fiorenza; Possingham, Hugh P

2015-08-01

Effective ecosystem-based management requires understanding ecosystem responses to multiple human threats, rather than focusing on single threats. To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic threats holistically, it is necessary to know how threats affect different components within ecosystems and ultimately alter ecosystem functioning. We used a case study of a Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) food web and expert knowledge elicitation in an application of the initial steps of a framework for assessment of cumulative human impacts on food webs. We produced a conceptual seagrass food web model, determined the main trophic relationships, identified the main threats to the food web components, and assessed the components' vulnerability to those threats. Some threats had high (e.g., coastal infrastructure) or low impacts (e.g., agricultural runoff) on all food web components, whereas others (e.g., introduced carnivores) had very different impacts on each component. Partitioning the ecosystem into its components enabled us to identify threats previously overlooked and to reevaluate the importance of threats commonly perceived as major. By incorporating this understanding of system vulnerability with data on changes in the state of each threat (e.g., decreasing domestic pollution and increasing fishing) into a food web model, managers may be better able to estimate and predict cumulative human impacts on ecosystems and to prioritize conservation actions. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Evaluating Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Interactions with Computational Models in Supporting Cumulative Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Yu-Mei; Clewell, Harvey; Campbell, Jerry; Andersen, Melvin

2011-01-01

Simultaneous or sequential exposure to multiple chemicals may cause interactions in the pharmacokinetics (PK) and/or pharmacodynamics (PD) of the individual chemicals. Such interactions can cause modification of the internal or target dose/response of one chemical in the mixture by other chemical(s), resulting in a change in the toxicity from that predicted from the summation of the effects of the single chemicals using dose additivity. In such cases, conducting quantitative cumulative risk assessment for chemicals present as a mixture is difficult. The uncertainties that arise from PK interactions can be addressed by developing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models to describe the disposition of chemical mixtures. Further, PK models can be developed to describe mechanisms of action and tissue responses. In this article, PBPK/PD modeling efforts conducted to investigate chemical interactions at the PK and PD levels are reviewed to demonstrate the use of this predictive modeling framework in assessing health risks associated with exposures to complex chemical mixtures. PMID:21655141

Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

OpenAIRE

Olazarán, J.; Trincado, R.; Bermejo-Pareja, F.

2013-01-01

Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD), with control of vascular factors (VFs). Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES) study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (n...

An exposure-based framework for grouping pollutants for a cumulative risk assessment approach: case study of indoor semi-volatile organic compounds.

Science.gov (United States)

Fournier, Kevin; Glorennec, Philippe; Bonvallot, Nathalie

2014-04-01

Humans are exposed to a large number of contaminants, many of which may have similar health effects. This paper presents a framework for identifying pollutants to be included in a cumulative risk assessment approach. To account for the possibility of simultaneous exposure to chemicals with common toxic modes of action, the first step of the traditional risk assessment process, i.e. hazard identification, is structured in three sub-steps: (1a) Identification of pollutants people are exposed to, (1b) identification of effects and mechanisms of action of these pollutants, (1c) grouping of pollutants according to similarity of their mechanism of action and health effects. Based on this exposure-based grouping we can derive "multi-pollutant" toxicity reference values, in the "dose-response assessment" step. The approach proposed in this work is original in that it is based on real exposures instead of a limited number of pollutants from a unique chemical family, as traditionally performed. This framework is illustrated by the case study of semi-volatile organic compounds in French dwellings, providing insights into practical considerations regarding the accuracy of the available toxicological information. This case study illustrates the value of the exposure-based approach as opposed to the traditional cumulative framework, in which chemicals with similar health effects were not always included in the same chemical class. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dietary cumulative acute risk assessment of organophosphorus, carbamates and pyrethroids insecticides for the Brazilian population.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jardim, Andreia Nunes Oliveira; Brito, Alessandra Page; van Donkersgoed, Gerda; Boon, Polly E; Caldas, Eloisa Dutra

Cumulative acute dietary risk assessments of organophosphorus (OPs), carbamates (CBs) and pyrethroids (PYs) were conducted for the Brazilian population. Residue data for 30786 samples of 30 foods were obtained from two national monitoring programs and one University laboratory, and consumption data

Adaptive strategies for cumulative cultural learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Ehn, Micael; Laland, Kevin

2012-05-21

The demographic and ecological success of our species is frequently attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture. However, it is not yet known how humans combine social and asocial learning to generate effective strategies for learning in a cumulative cultural context. Here we explore how cumulative culture influences the relative merits of various pure and conditional learning strategies, including pure asocial and social learning, critical social learning, conditional social learning and individual refiner strategies. We replicate the Rogers' paradox in the cumulative setting. However, our analysis suggests that strategies that resolved Rogers' paradox in a non-cumulative setting may not necessarily evolve in a cumulative setting, thus different strategies will optimize cumulative and non-cumulative cultural learning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Problems of describing the cumulative effect in relativistic nuclear physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldin, A.M.

1979-01-01

The problem of describing the cumulative effect i.e., the particle production on nuclei in the range kinematically forbidden for one-nucleon collisions, is studied. Discrimination of events containing cumulative particles fixes configurations in the wave function of a nucleus, when several nucleons are closely spaced and their quark-parton components are collectivized. For the cumulative processes under consideration large distances between quarks are very important. The fundamental facts and theoretical interpretation of the quantum field theory and of the condensed media theory in the relativistic nuclear physics are presented in brief. The collisions of the relativistic nuclei with low momentum transfers is considered in a fast moving coordinate system. The basic parameter determining this type of collisions is the energy of nucleon binding in nuclei. It has been shown that the short-range correlation model provides a good presentation of many characteristics of the multiple particle production and it may be regarded as an approximate universal property of hadron interactions

Acute and Cumulative Effects of Unmodified 50-nm Nano-ZnO on Mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Tao; Zhang, Shu-Hui; Zhang, Ji-Liang; Hao, Xue-Qin; Yang, Fan; Zhang, Cai; Yang, Zi-Jun; Zhang, Meng-Yu; Wang, Jie

2018-01-02

Nanometer zinc oxide (nano-ZnO) is widely used in diverse industrial and agricultural fields. Due to the extensive contact humans have with these particles, it is crucial to understand the potential effects that nano-ZnO have on human health. Currently, information related to the toxicity and mechanisms of nano-ZnO is limited. The aim of the present study was to investigate acute and cumulative toxic effects of 50-nm unmodified ZnO in mice. This investigation will seek to establish median lethal dose (LD50), a cumulative coefficient, and target organs. The acute and cumulative toxicity was investigated by Karber's method and via a dose-increasing method, respectively. During the experiment, clinical signs, mortality, body weights, hematology, serum biochemistry, gross pathology, organ weight, and histopathology were examined. The LD50 was 5177-mg/kg·bw; the 95% confidence limits for the LD50 were 5116-5238-mg/kg·bw. It could be concluded that the liver, kidney, lung, and gastrointestinal tract were target organs for the 50-nm nano-ZnO acute oral treatment. The cumulative coefficient (K) was 1.9 which indicated that the cumulative toxicity was apparent. The results also indicated that the liver, kidney, lung, and pancrea were target organs for 50-nm nano-ZnO cumulative oral exposure and might be target organs for subchronic and chronic toxicity of oral administered 50-nm ZnO.

Cumulative risk assessment for plasticizer-contaminated food using the hazard index approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, J.W.; Yan, B.R.; Chang, M.H.; Tseng, S.H.; Kao, Y.M.; Chen, J.C.; Lee, C.C.

2014-01-01

Phthalates strongly and adversely affect reproduction, development and liver function. We did a cumulative risk assessment for simultaneous exposure to nine phthalates using the hazard index (HI) and the levels of nine phthalates in 1200 foodstuff samples. DEHP (di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate) present the highest level (mean: 0.443 mg/kg) in 1200 samples, and the highest average daily dose (ADD) was found in DEHP, ΣDBP (i + n) (the sum of dibutyl phthalate [DBP] isomers [DnBP + DiBP]) posed the highest risk potential of all the phthalates. In seven phthalates, the 95th percentiles of the ADDs for ΣDBP (i + n) in 0–6-yr-old children accounted for 91% (79–107%) of the tolerable daily intake, and the 95th percentiles of the HIs for the anti-androgenic effects of five phthalates in 0–3-yr-old children and 4–6-yr-old girls were >1. We conclude that the health of younger Taiwanese may be adversely affected by overexposure of phthalate-contaminated foods. - Graphical abstract: In seven phthalates, the 95th percentile of the average daily dose (ADD) for ΣDBP (i + n) (the sum of dibutyl phthalate [DBP] isomers [DnBP + DiBP]) in 0–3-yr-old male (0–3 M) and female (0–3 F) children accounted for 97% and 84% of TDIs, respectively. For 4–6-yr-old and 7–12-yr-old males and 7–12-yr-old females, ADDs for ΣDBP (i + n) accounted for 79%, 72%, and 65% of TDIs, respectively. - Highlights: • A cumulative risk assessment of PAEs was used in a severe plasticizer-contaminated food episode. • ΣDBP (i + n) posed the highest risk potential of all the dietary phthalates. • Females 4–6 yr old had the highest risk for anti-androgenic effects. • Beverages, milk and dairy products were the major contributors to average daily dose of phthalate esters. - The health of young Taiwanese may be adversely affected by overexposure of plasticizer-contaminated food

Optimization of the cumulative risk assessment of pesticides and biocides using computational techniques: Pilot project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsdottir, Svava Osk; Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Petersen, Annette

This pilot project is intended as the first step in developing a computational strategy to assist in refining methods for higher tier cumulative and aggregate risk assessment of exposure to mixture of pesticides and biocides. For this purpose, physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models were...

A framework for cumulative risk assessment in the 21st century.

Science.gov (United States)

Moretto, Angelo; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Solomon, Keith R; Pastoor, Timothy P; Wilks, Martin F; Embry, Michelle R

2017-02-01

The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) has developed a framework to support a transition in the way in which information for chemical risk assessment is obtained and used (RISK21). The approach is based on detailed problem formulation, where exposure drives the data acquisition process in order to enable informed decision-making on human health safety as soon as sufficient evidence is available. Information is evaluated in a transparent and consistent way with the aim of optimizing available resources. In the context of risk assessment, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) poses additional problems and questions that can be addressed using the RISK21 approach. The focus in CRA to date has generally been on chemicals that have common mechanisms of action. Recently, concern has also been expressed about chemicals acting on multiple pathways that lead to a common health outcome, and non-chemical other conditions (non-chemical stressors) that can lead to or modify a common outcome. Acknowledging that CRAs, as described above, are more conceptually, methodologically and computationally complex than traditional single-stressor risk assessments, RISK21 further developed the framework for implementation of workable processes and procedures for conducting assessments of combined effects from exposure to multiple chemicals and non-chemical stressors. As part of the problem formulation process, this evidence-based framework allows the identification of the circumstances in which it is appropriate to conduct a CRA for a group of compounds. A tiered approach is then proposed, where additional chemical stressors and/or non-chemical modulating factors (ModFs) are considered sequentially. Criteria are provided to facilitate the decision on whether or not to include ModFs in the formal quantitative assessment, with the intention to help focus the use of available resources to have the greatest potential to protect public health.

Technical Note: SCUDA: A software platform for cumulative dose assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Seyoun; McNutt, Todd; Quon, Harry; Wong, John; Lee, Junghoon, E-mail: rshekhar@childrensnational.org, E-mail: junghoon@jhu.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology and Molecular Radiation Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21231 (United States); Plishker, William [IGI Technologies, Inc., College Park, Maryland 20742 (United States); Shekhar, Raj, E-mail: rshekhar@childrensnational.org, E-mail: junghoon@jhu.edu [IGI Technologies, Inc., College Park, Maryland 20742 and Sheikh Zayed Institute for Pediatric Surgical Innovation, Children’s National Health System, Washington, DC 20010 (United States)

2016-10-15

Purpose: Accurate tracking of anatomical changes and computation of actually delivered dose to the patient are critical for successful adaptive radiation therapy (ART). Additionally, efficient data management and fast processing are practically important for the adoption in clinic as ART involves a large amount of image and treatment data. The purpose of this study was to develop an accurate and efficient Software platform for CUmulative Dose Assessment (SCUDA) that can be seamlessly integrated into the clinical workflow. Methods: SCUDA consists of deformable image registration (DIR), segmentation, dose computation modules, and a graphical user interface. It is connected to our image PACS and radiotherapy informatics databases from which it automatically queries/retrieves patient images, radiotherapy plan, beam data, and daily treatment information, thus providing an efficient and unified workflow. For accurate registration of the planning CT and daily CBCTs, the authors iteratively correct CBCT intensities by matching local intensity histograms during the DIR process. Contours of the target tumor and critical structures are then propagated from the planning CT to daily CBCTs using the computed deformations. The actual delivered daily dose is computed using the registered CT and patient setup information by a superposition/convolution algorithm, and accumulated using the computed deformation fields. Both DIR and dose computation modules are accelerated by a graphics processing unit. Results: The cumulative dose computation process has been validated on 30 head and neck (HN) cancer cases, showing 3.5 ± 5.0 Gy (mean±STD) absolute mean dose differences between the planned and the actually delivered doses in the parotid glands. On average, DIR, dose computation, and segmentation take 20 s/fraction and 17 min for a 35-fraction treatment including additional computation for dose accumulation. Conclusions: The authors developed a unified software platform that provides

Crane Safety Assessment Method Based on Entropy and Cumulative Prospect Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aihua Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Assessing the safety status of cranes is an important problem. To overcome the inaccuracies and misjudgments in such assessments, this work describes a safety assessment method for cranes that combines entropy and cumulative prospect theory. Firstly, the proposed method transforms the set of evaluation indices into an evaluation vector. Secondly, a decision matrix is then constructed from the evaluation vectors and evaluation standards, and an entropy-based technique is applied to calculate the index weights. Thirdly, positive and negative prospect value matrices are established from reference points based on the positive and negative ideal solutions. Thus, this enables the crane safety grade to be determined according to the ranked comprehensive prospect values. Finally, the safety status of four general overhead traveling crane samples is evaluated to verify the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method. The results demonstrate that the method described in this paper can precisely and reasonably reflect the safety status of a crane.

Cumulative effects of wind turbines. Volume 2: Report on qualitative public attitude research in mid-Wales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-07-01

This report summarises the results of research to develop a planning tool for assessing the cumulative effect of wind turbines carried out in Montgomeryshire through contact with those involved in wind farms, and those living near and further away from the wind turbine arrays. Topics examined included people's feeling about wind farms, noise, experience with wind farm developers, availability of related jobs, awareness of income to farmers from wind farms, developers' contributions to local funds, awareness of government policy, appreciation of wind as a resource, and the effects on tourism.

Cumulative effects of wind turbines. Volume 2: Report on qualitative public attitude research in mid-Wales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-07-01

This report summarises the results of research to develop a planning tool for assessing the cumulative effect of wind turbines carried out in Montgomeryshire through contact with those involved in wind farms, and those living near and further away from the wind turbine arrays. Topics examined included people's feeling about wind farms, noise, experience with wind farm developers, availability of related jobs, awareness of income to farmers from wind farms, developers' contributions to local funds, awareness of government policy, appreciation of wind as a resource, and the effects on tourism.

Pesticide Cumulative Risk Assessment: Framework for Screening Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

This document provides guidance on how to screen groups of pesticides for cumulative evaluation using a two-step approach: begin with evaluation of available toxicological information and, if necessary, follow up with a risk-based screening approach.

Baltic Sea biodiversity status vs. cumulative human pressures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jesper H.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Korpinen, Samuli

2015-01-01

Abstract Many studies have tried to explain spatial and temporal variations in biodiversity status of marine areas from a single-issue perspective, such as fishing pressure or coastal pollution, yet most continental seas experience a wide range of human pressures. Cumulative impact assessments have...... been developed to capture the consequences of multiple stressors for biodiversity, but the ability of these assessments to accurately predict biodiversity status has never been tested or ground-truthed. This relationship has similarly been assumed for the Baltic Sea, especially in areas with impaired...... status, but has also never been documented. Here we provide a first tentative indication that cumulative human impacts relate to ecosystem condition, i.e. biodiversity status, in the Baltic Sea. Thus, cumulative impact assessments offer a promising tool for informed marine spatial planning, designation...

CEAMF study, volume 2 : cumulative effects indicators, thresholds, and case studies : final

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-03-01

The four types of cumulative effects on the environment are: alteration, loss, and fragmentation of habitat; disturbance; barriers to movement; and direct and indirect mortality. Defining where and how human activities can be continued without irreversible net harm to the environment is part of cumulative effects management. Various land-use and habitat indicators were tested in the Blueberry and Sukunka study areas of British Columbia, to address the environmental effects associated with oil and gas development. As recommended, a tiered threshold approach was used to allow for flexibility in different land management regimes and ecological settings. Success will depend on defining acceptable change, threshold values, standard public database, standard processes to calculate indicator values using the database, and project-specific and cooperative management actions. A pilot study was suggested to test the candidate thresholds and implementation process. The two areas proposed for consideration were the Jedney Enhanced Resource Development Resource Management Zone in the Fort St. John Forest District, and the Etsho Enhanced Resource Development Resource Management Zone in the Fort Nelson Forest District. Both are of interest to the petroleum and forest sectors, and support the woodland caribou, a species which is extremely sensitive to cumulative effects of habitat fragmentation and disturbance. 117 refs., 11 tabs., 39 figs.

Cumulative effects of cascade hydropower stations on total dissolved gas supersaturation.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Qian; Li, Ran; Feng, Jingjie; Lu, Jingying; Zhou, Qin

2018-03-01

Elevated levels of total dissolved gas (TDG) may occur downstream of dams during the spill process. These high levels would increase the incidence of gas bubble disease in fish and cause severe environmental impacts. With increasing numbers of cascade hydropower stations being built or planned, the cumulative effects of TDG supersaturation are becoming increasingly prominent. The TDG saturation distribution in the downstream reaches of the Jinsha River was studied to investigate the cumulative effects of TDG supersaturation resulting from the cascade hydropower stations. A comparison of the effects of the joint operation and the single operation of two hydropower stations (XLD and XJB) was performed to analyze the risk degree to fish posed by TDG supersaturation. The results showed that water with supersaturated TDG generated at the upstream cascade can be transported to the downstream power station, leading to cumulative TDG supersaturation effects. Compared with the single operation of XJB, the joint operation of both stations produced a much higher TDG saturation downstream of XJB, especially during the non-flood discharge period. Moreover, the duration of high TDG saturation and the lengths of the lethal and sub-lethal areas were much higher in the joint operation scenario, posing a greater threat to fish and severely damaging the environment. This work provides a scientific basis for strategies to reduce TDG supersaturation to the permissible level and minimize the potential risk of supersaturated TDG.

Assessing environmental impacts on stream water quality: the use of cumulative flux and cumulative flux difference approaches to deforestation of the Hafren Forest, mid-Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Neal

2002-01-01

Full Text Available A method for examining the impacts of disturbance on stream water quality based on paired catchment “controlâ€? and “responseâ€? water quality time series is described in relation to diagrams of cumulative flux and cumulative flux difference. The paper describes the equations used and illustrates the patterns expected for idealised flux changes followed by an application to stream water quality data for a spruce forested catchment, the Hore, subjected to clear fell. The water quality determinands examined are sodium, chloride, nitrate, calcium and acid neutralisation capacity. The anticipated effects of felling are shown in relation to reduction in mist capture and nitrate release with felling as well as to the influence of weathering and cation exchange mechanisms, but in a much clearer way than observed previously using other approaches. Keywords: Plynlimon, stream, Hore, acid neutralisation capacity, calcium, chloride, nitrate, sodium, cumulative flux, flux

Cumulative environmental impacts and integrated coastal management: the case of Xiamen, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Xiongzhi; Hong, Huasheng; Charles, Anthony T

2004-07-01

This paper examines the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts and the implementation of integrated coastal management within the harbour of Xiamen, China, an urban region in which the coastal zone is under increasing pressure as a result of very rapid economic growth. The first stage of analysis incorporates components of a cumulative effects assessment, including (a) identification of sources of environmental impacts, notably industrial expansion, port development, shipping, waste disposal, aquaculture and coastal construction, (b) selection of a set of valued ecosystem components, focusing on circulation and siltation, water quality, sediment, the benthic community, and mangrove forests, and (c) use of a set of key indicators to examine cumulative impacts arising from the aggregate of human activities. In the second stage of analysis, the paper describes and assesses the development of an institutional framework for integrated coastal management in Xiamen, one that combines policy and planning (including legislative and enforcement mechanisms) with scientific and monitoring mechanisms (including an innovative 'marine functional zoning' system). The paper concludes that the integrated coastal management framework in Xiamen has met all relevant requirements for 'integration' as laid out in the literature, and has explicitly incorporated consideration of cumulative impacts within its management and monitoring processes.

Radiologic imaging in cystic fibrosis: cumulative effective dose and changing trends over 2 decades.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

O'Connell, Oisin J

2012-06-01

With the increasing life expectancy for patients with cystic fibrosis (CF), and a known predisposition to certain cancers, cumulative radiation exposure from radiologic imaging is of increasing significance. This study explores the estimated cumulative effective radiation dose over a 17-year period from radiologic procedures and changing trends of imaging modalities over this period.

An investigation of the alternating fractionation formula of the Cumulative Radiation Effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamlet, R.; Kirk, J.; Perry, A.M.

1980-01-01

The alternating fractionation formula of the Cumulative Radiation Effect (CRE) system was investigated using the mouse intestinal crypt system as a method of assessment of the amount of radiation damage in a normal tissue. The experimental results revealed that the formula is correct in predicting an increased effect with alternating large and small sized fractions, when compared with a standard schedule where the fraction size was kept constant but achieved the same total dose. However, the results also demonstrated that the order in which the alternate fractions were administered affected the amount of radiation damage produced in the tissue. This observation is in contradiction to another prediction of the formula, that the order in which equal numbers of fractions of different magnitudes are administered, will have no effect on the biological end point. The formula, therefore, is only an approximate model of radiation damage in normal tissue and much more information is required before it can be improved upon. (author)

Cumulative effects of wind turbines. Volume 1: Report on the preparation of a planning tool by means of consensus-building

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-07-01

This report summarises the results of the Cumulative Effect of Wind Turbines project which sought to develop guidance on planning and assessing the combined effects of wind energy developments in an area. Details are given of the consensus-building approach, the call for contributions, stakeholder workshops and consultation, the project research, the development and refinement of the guidance, and the completion of the final draft.

Kindling fires: examining the potential for cumulative learning in a Journalism curriculum

KAUST Repository

Kilpert, Leigh

2013-01-01

This study investigated context-dependency of learning as an indicator for students\\' potential to continue learning after graduation. We used Maton\\'s theoretical concepts of \\'cumulative\\' and \\'segmented\\' learning, and \\'semantic gravity\\', to look for context-independent learning in students\\' assessments in a Journalism curriculum. We postulated whether the curriculum constrained or enabled cumulative learning. Students\\' responses to assessments were coded by their degree of context-dependency, or semantic gravity. We found that, firstly, students are overly successful in producing context-dependent answers but struggle to deliver context-independent responses. Secondly, students were not effective when they used higher level knowledge principles without the foundation of lower level ones. Lastly, the marking criteria were encouraging markers to reward context-dependent answers over context-independent ones. This study has implications for educators interested in curriculum design that enables cumulative learning in discipline specific contexts. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

A simplified model for cumulative damage with interaction effect for creep loading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomuc, R.; Bui-Quoc, T.; Biron, A.

1989-01-01

This paper explains that the basic creep-rupture behavior of a material at high temperature is obtained with constant stresses under isothermal conditions. Structural components operating at high temperature are, however, usually subjected to fluctuations of stresses and/or temperatures. Experimental conditions cannot cover all possible combinations of these parameters and, in addition, systematic investigations on cumulative creep damage are very limited due to long-term testing. The authors suggest that there is a need to establish a reliable procedure for evaluating the cumulative creep damage effect under non-steady stresses and temperatures

The Role of Cumulative Trauma, Betrayal, and Appraisals in Understanding Trauma Symptomatology.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Christina Gamache; Cromer, Lisa Demarni; Deprince, Anne P; Freyd, Jennifer J

2013-03-01

Poor psychological outcomes are common among trauma survivors, yet not all survivors experience adverse sequelae. The current study examined links between cumulative trauma exposure as a function of the level of betrayal (measured by the relational closeness of the survivor and the perpetrator), trauma appraisals, gender, and trauma symptoms. Participants were 273 college students who reported experiencing at least one traumatic event on a trauma checklist. Three cumulative indices were constructed to assess the number of different types of traumas experienced that were low (LBTs), moderate (MBTs), or high in betrayal (HBTs). Greater trauma exposure was related to more symptoms of depression, dissociation, and PTSD, with exposure to HBTs contributing the most. Women were more likely to experience HBTs than men, but there were no gender differences in trauma-related symptoms. Appraisals of trauma were predictive of trauma-related symptoms over and above the effects explained by cumulative trauma at each level of betrayal. The survivor's relationship with the perpetrator, the effect of cumulative trauma, and their combined impact on trauma symptomatology are discussed.

The cumulative effect of air pollutants on the acute exacerbation of COPD in Shanghai, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Xian Wen; Chen, Pei Li; Ren, Lei; Lin, Ying Ni; Zhou, Jian Ping; Ni, Lei; Li, Qing Yun

2018-05-01

Epidemiologic studies have shown the effect of air pollutants on acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). However, little is known regarding the dose-response relationship. This study aimed to investigate the cumulative effect of air pollutants on AECOPD. We collected 101 patients with AECOPD from November 2010 through August 2011 in Shanghai. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate associations between air pollutants and AECOPD. Poisson regression was then applied to determine the cumulative effect of air pollutants including particulate matter 10 (PM10), PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) and ozone (O 3 ) on AECOPD, of which the seasonal variation was further explored. The monthly episodes of AECOPD were associated with the concentrations of PM2.5 (r=0.884, peffect in cold season, whereas 7days in warm season. The RR for AECOPD for per 10μg/m 3 increment in NO 2 was 1.07, with a 5-day cumulative effect without seasonal variation. High consecutive levels of PM2.5 and NO 2 increase the risk of developing AECOPD. Cumulative effect of PM2.5 and NO 2 appears before the exacerbation onset. These gradations were more evident in the PM2.5 during different seasons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing stress-related treatment needs among girls at risk for poor functional outcomes: The impact of cumulative adversity, criterion traumas, and non-criterion events.

Science.gov (United States)

Lansing, Amy E; Plante, Wendy Y; Beck, Audrey N

2017-05-01

Despite growing recognition that cumulative adversity (total stressor exposure, including complex trauma), increases the risk for psychopathology and impacts development, assessment strategies lag behind: Adversity-related mental health needs (symptoms, functional impairment, maladaptive coping) are typically assessed in response to only one qualifying Criterion-A traumatic event. This is especially problematic for youth at-risk for health and academic disparities who experience cumulative adversity, including non-qualifying events (separation from caregivers) which may produce more impairing symptomatology. Data from 118 delinquent girls demonstrate: (1) an average of 14 adverse Criterion-A and non-Criterion event exposures; (2) serious maladaptive coping strategies (self-injury) directly in response to cumulative adversity; (3) more cumulative adversity-related than worst-event related symptomatology and functional impairment; and (4) comparable symptomatology, but greater functional impairment, in response to non-Criterion events. These data support the evaluation of mental health needs in response to cumulative adversity for optimal identification and tailoring of services in high-risk populations to reduce disparities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental assessment of cumulative temperature and UV-B radiation effects on Mediterranean plankton metabolism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lara S. eGarcia-Corral

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The Mediterranean Sea is a vulnerable region for climate change, warming at higher rates compare to the global ocean. Warming leads to increased stratification of the water column and enhanced the oligotrophic nature of the Mediterranean Sea. The oligotrophic waters are already highly transparent, however, exposure of Mediterranean plankton to ultraviolet radiation (UV-B and UV-A may increase further if the waters become more oligotrophic, thereby, allowing a deeper UV radiation penetration and likely enhancing impacts to biota.Here we experimentally elucidate the cumulative effects of warming and natural UV-B radiation on the net community production (NCP of plankton communities. We conducted five experiments at monthly intervals, from June to October 2013, and evaluated the responses of NCP to ambient UV-B radiation and warming (+3ºC, alone and in combination, in a coastal area of the northwest Mediterranean Sea. UV-B radiation and warming lead to reduced net community production and resulted in a heterotrophic (NCP<0 metabolic balance. Both UV-B radiation and temperature, showed a significant individual effect in NCP across treatments and time. However, their joint effect showed to be synergistic as the interaction between them (UV x Temp was statistically significant in most of the experiments performed. Our results showed that both drivers, would affect the gas exchange of CO2-O2 from and to the atmosphere and the role of plankton communities in the Mediterranean carbon cycle

Experimental assessment of cumulative temperature and UV-B radiation effects on Mediterranean plankton metabolism

KAUST Repository

Garcia-Corral, Lara S.

2015-07-07

The Mediterranean Sea is a vulnerable region for climate change, warming at higher rates compare to the global ocean. Warming leads to increased stratification of the water column and enhanced the oligotrophic nature of the Mediterranean Sea. The oligotrophic waters are already highly transparent, however, exposure of Mediterranean plankton to ultraviolet radiation (UV-B and UV-A) may increase further if the waters become more oligotrophic, thereby, allowing a deeper UV radiation penetration and likely enhancing impacts to biota. Here we experimentally elucidate the cumulative effects of warming and natural UV-B radiation on the net community production (NCP) of plankton communities. We conducted five experiments at monthly intervals, from June to October 2013, and evaluated the responses of NCP to ambient UV-B radiation and warming (+3°C), alone and in combination, in a coastal area of the northwest Mediterranean Sea. UV-B radiation and warming lead to reduced NCP and resulted in a heterotrophic (NCP < 0) metabolic balance. Both UV-B radiation and temperature, showed a significant individual effect in NCP across treatments and time. However, their joint effect showed to be synergistic as the interaction between them (UV × Temp) was statistically significant in most of the experiments performed. Our results showed that both drivers, would affect the gas exchange of CO2−O2 from and to the atmosphere and the role of plankton communities in the Mediterranean carbon cycle.

Environmental impacts of renewable energy. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based analysis of cumulative effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhoden, Henning

2015-01-01

The energy transition and thus turning away from fossil fuels and nuclear energy sources is based on an increased expansion of renewable energies. This expansion mainly take place in nature and the landscape, which conflicts with the objectives of the Federal Nature Conservation Act concerning scenery or the consequences of monoculture cultivation of energy crops. What happens, however, if more than one type of renewables occur compressed in a landscape that is investigated in this work. Result from cumulative effects are extended conflict with the objectives of the Federal Nature Conservation Act or possibly have positive effects can be seen? A ''cumulative effect'' is defined as an additive-synergistic overall effect of all a protected interest of respective impact factors. These arise from one or more projects / plans and influence from a variety of ways. As part of the investigations carried out it is clear that extended conflicts may arise in relation to the objectives of the Federal Nature Conservation Act by cumulative effects of renewable energies. To prevent these conflicts, policies and regulations in the context of spatial planning is necessary to enable a focusing of spatial planning for a sustainable expansion of renewable energy. [de

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Millar, Richard J.; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-05-01

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or `effective' transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43-2.37°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88-2.60°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Hogan, Dianna M.; Labiosa, William; Pearlstine, Leonard; Hallac, David; Strong, David; Hearn, Paul; Bernknopf, Richard

2012-01-01

Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

Quantitative assessment of cumulative damage from repetitive exposures to suberythemogenic doses of UVA in human skin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lavker, R.M.; Kaidbey, K.H.

1995-01-01

Daily exposures to relatively small suberythemogenic fluences of UVA (50-200 kJ/m 2 ) for 8 days resulted in cumulative morphological skin alterations indicative of early tissue injury. Histologically, irradiated skin revealed epidermal hyperplasia, inflammation and deposition of lysozyme along the dermal elastic fiber network. Sunburn cells were also present within the epidermis. These changes were quantified by image analysis and were found to be related to the cumulative UVA fluence. A long UVA waveband (UVAI, 340-400 nm) was as effective as a broad UVA band (320-400 nm), suggesting that these changes are induced by longer UVA wavelengths. (author)

Cumulative childhood trauma and psychological maladjustment of sexually abused children in Korea: mediating effects of emotion regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Ji Young; Oh, Kyung Ja

2014-02-01

The purpose of the present study was to identify the mediating effects of emotion regulation on the association between cumulative childhood trauma and behavior problems in sexually abused children in Korea, using structural equation modeling (SEM). Data were collected on 171 children (ages 6-13 years) referred to a public counseling center for sexual abuse in Seoul, Korea. Cumulative childhood traumas were defined on the basis of number of traumas (physical abuse, witnessing domestic violence, neglect, traumatic separation from parent, and sexual abuse) and the severity and duration of traumas. Children were evaluated by their parents on emotion regulation using the Emotion Regulation Checklist and internalizing and externalizing behavior problems using the Korean-Child Behavior Checklist. SEM analyses confirmed the complete mediation model, in which emotion dysregulation fully mediates the relationship between cumulative childhood traumas and internalizing/externalizing behavior problems. These findings indicate that emotion regulation is an important mechanism that can explain the negative effects of cumulative childhood traumas and that there is a need to focus on emotion regulation in sexually abused children exposed to cumulative trauma. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-01-01

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or ‘effective’ transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43–2.37°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88–2.60°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610381

Consumption of fruits and vegetables and probabilistic assessment of the cumulative acute exposure to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides of schoolchildren in Slovenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Blaznik, Urška; Yngve, Agneta; Eržen, Ivan; Hlastan Ribič, Cirila

2016-02-01

Adequate consumption of fruits and vegetables is a part of recommendations for a healthy diet. The aim of the present study was to assess acute cumulative dietary exposure to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides via fruit and vegetable consumption by the population of schoolchildren aged 11-12 years and the level of risk for their health. Cumulative probabilistic risk assessment methodology with the index compound approach was applied. Slovenia, primary schools. Schoolchildren (n 1145) from thirty-one primary schools in Slovenia. Children were part of the PRO GREENS study 2009/10 which assessed 11-year-olds' consumption of fruit and vegetables in ten European countries. The cumulative acute exposure amounted to 8.3 (95% CI 7.7, 10.6) % of the acute reference dose (ARfD) for acephate as index compound (100 µg/kg body weight per d) at the 99.9th percentile for daily intake and to 4.5 (95% CI 3.5, 4.7) % of the ARfD at the 99.9th percentile for intakes during school time and at lunch. Apples, bananas, oranges and lettuce contributed most to the total acute pesticides intake. The estimations showed that acute dietary exposure to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides is not a health concern for schoolchildren with the assessed dietary patterns of fruit and vegetable consumption.

Mismatch or cumulative stress : Toward an integrated hypothesis of programming effects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nederhof, Esther; Schmidt, Mathias V.

2012-01-01

This paper integrates the cumulative stress hypothesis with the mismatch hypothesis, taking into account individual differences in sensitivity to programming. According to the cumulative stress hypothesis, individuals are more likely to suffer from disease as adversity accumulates. According to the

Studying the cumulative environmental effects of Hydro-Quebec's installations plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dubeau, D.

1992-01-01

The study of the cumulative environmental effects that have been integrated with technical and economic analyses include mercury, land use in the region (territory), natural landscapes, cultural heritages, forest dynamics, regional economies and ways of life. Requests and petitions from the public about Hydro-Quebec projects fall into four categories: welfare of communities, impact on the land, environmental responsibility and preservation of plant and animal species. The cooperation of all concerned is necessary for Hydro-Quebec's developments. (author)

Volunteering and health benefits in general adults: cumulative effects and forms.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeung, Jerf W K; Zhang, Zhuoni; Kim, Tae Yeun

2017-07-11

Although the health benefits of volunteering have been well documented, no research has examined its cumulative effects according to other-oriented and self-oriented volunteering on multiple health outcomes in the general adult public. This study examined other-oriented and self-oriented volunteering in cumulative contribution to health outcomes (mental and physical health, life satisfaction, social well-being and depression). Data were drawn from the Survey of Texas Adults 2004, which contains a statewide population-based sample of adults (n = 1504). Multivariate linear regression and Wald test of parameters equivalence constraint were used to test the relationships. Both forms of volunteering were significantly related to better health outcomes (odds ratios = 3.66% to 11.11%), except the effect of self-oriented volunteering on depression. Other-oriented volunteering was found to have better health benefits than did self-volunteering. Volunteering should be promoted by public health, education and policy practitioners as a kind of healthy lifestyle, especially for the social subgroups of elders, ethnic minorities, those with little education, single people, and unemployed people, who generally have poorer health and less participation in volunteering.

Maintenance hemodialysis patients have high cumulative radiation exposure.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Kinsella, Sinead M

2010-10-01

Hemodialysis is associated with an increased risk of neoplasms which may result, at least in part, from exposure to ionizing radiation associated with frequent radiographic procedures. In order to estimate the average radiation exposure of those on hemodialysis, we conducted a retrospective study of 100 patients in a university-based dialysis unit followed for a median of 3.4 years. The number and type of radiological procedures were obtained from a central radiology database, and the cumulative effective radiation dose was calculated using standardized, procedure-specific radiation levels. The median annual radiation dose was 6.9 millisieverts (mSv) per patient-year. However, 14 patients had an annual cumulative effective radiation dose over 20 mSv, the upper averaged annual limit for occupational exposure. The median total cumulative effective radiation dose per patient over the study period was 21.7 mSv, in which 13 patients had a total cumulative effective radiation dose over 75 mSv, a value reported to be associated with a 7% increased risk of cancer-related mortality. Two-thirds of the total cumulative effective radiation dose was due to CT scanning. The average radiation exposure was significantly associated with the cause of end-stage renal disease, history of ischemic heart disease, transplant waitlist status, number of in-patient hospital days over follow-up, and death during the study period. These results highlight the substantial exposure to ionizing radiation in hemodialysis patients.

EXAFS cumulants of CdSe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diop, D.

1997-04-01

EXAFS functions had been extracted from measurements on the K edge of Se at different temperatures between 20 and 300 K. The analysis of the EXAFS of the filtered first two shells has been done in the wavevector range laying between 2 and 15.5 A -1 in terms of the cumulants of the effective distribution of distances. The cumulants C 3 and C 4 obtained from the phase difference and the amplitude ratio methods have shown the anharmonicity in the vibrations of atoms around their equilibrium position. (author). 13 refs, 3 figs

A global review of cumulative pressure and impact assessments in marine environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samuli Korpinen

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Ever more extensive use of marine space by human activities and greater demands for marine natural resources has led to increases in both duration and spatial extent of pressures on the marine environment. In parallel, the global crisis of decreasing biodiversity and loss of habitats has revitalized scientific research on human impacts and lead to methodological development of cumulative pressure and impact assessments (CPIA. In Europe alone, almost twenty CPIAs have been published in the past 10 years and some more in other sea regions of the world. In this review, we have analysed 36 recent marine CPIAs and focused on their methodological approaches. We were especially interested in uncovering methodological similarities, identifying best practices and analysing whether the CPIAs have addressed the recent criticism. The review results showed surprisingly similar methodological approaches in >50% of the studies, raising hopes for finding coherence in international assessment efforts. Although the CPIA methods showed relatively few innovative approaches for addressing the major caveats of previous CPIAs, the most recent studies indicate that improved approaches may be soon found.

Cumulative radiation dose of multiple trauma patients during their hospitalization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Zhikang; Sun Jianzhong; Zhao Zudan

2012-01-01

Objective: To study the cumulative radiation dose of multiple trauma patients during their hospitalization and to analyze the dose influence factors. Methods: The DLP for CT and DR were retrospectively collected from the patients during June, 2009 and April, 2011 at a university affiliated hospital. The cumulative radiation doses were calculated by summing typical effective doses of the anatomic regions scanned. Results: The cumulative radiation doses of 113 patients were collected. The maximum,minimum and the mean values of cumulative effective doses were 153.3, 16.48 mSv and (52.3 ± 26.6) mSv. Conclusions: Multiple trauma patients have high cumulative radiation exposure. Therefore, the management of cumulative radiation doses should be enhanced. To establish the individualized radiation exposure archives will be helpful for the clinicians and technicians to make decision whether to image again and how to select the imaging parameters. (authors)

Methodological Considerations in Screening for Cumulative Environmental Health Impacts: Lessons Learned from a Pilot Study in California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lauren Zeise

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Polluting facilities and hazardous sites are often concentrated in low-income communities of color already facing additional stressors to their health. The influence of socioeconomic status is not considered in traditional models of risk assessment. We describe a pilot study of a screening method that considers both pollution burden and population characteristics in assessing the potential for cumulative impacts. The goal is to identify communities that warrant further attention and to thereby provide actionable guidance to decision- and policy-makers in achieving environmental justice. The method uses indicators related to five components to develop a relative cumulative impact score for use in comparing communities: exposures, public health effects, environmental effects, sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors. Here, we describe several methodological considerations in combining disparate data sources and report on the results of sensitivity analyses meant to guide future improvements in cumulative impact assessments. We discuss criteria for the selection of appropriate indicators, correlations between them, and consider data quality and the influence of choices regarding model structure. We conclude that the results of this model are largely robust to changes in model structure.

A conceptual framework for assessing cumulative impacts on the hydrology of nontidal wetlands

Science.gov (United States)

Winter, Thomas C.

1988-01-01

Wetlands occur in geologic and hydrologic settings that enhance the accumulation or retention of water. Regional slope, local relief, and permeability of the land surface are major controls on the formation of wetlands by surface-water sources. However, these landscape features also have significant control over groundwater flow systems, which commonly play a role in the formation of wetlands. Because the hydrologic system is a continuum, any modification of one component will have an effect on contiguous components. Disturbances commonly affecting the hydrologic system as it relates to wetlands include weather modification, alteration of plant communities, storage of surface water, road construction, drainage of surface water and soil water, alteration of groundwater recharge and discharge areas, and pumping of groundwater. Assessments of the cumulative effects of one or more of these disturbances on the hydrologic system as related to wetlands must take into account uncertainty in the measurements and in the assumptions that are made in hydrologic studies. For example, it may be appropriate to assume that regional groundwater flow systems are recharged in uplands and discharged in lowlands. However, a similar assumption commonly does not apply on a local scale, because of the spatial and temporal dynamics of groundwater recharge. Lack of appreciation of such hydrologic factors can lead to misunderstanding of the hydrologic function of wetlands within various parts of the landscape and mismanagement of wetland ecosystems.

The effects of job and family conditions on cumulative fatigue of working mothers in double income family.

OpenAIRE

Hirono Ishikawa

2000-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors in the workplace and in the home which may have effects on cumulative fatigue, and to examine the moderating effect of the quality of family life on the relationship between job related stress and cumulative fatigue. The subject is the sample of working mothers with young children in double income family. Two hypotheses were examined in this study. First, higher level of job related stress and family related stress are both associated ...

Evaluating long-term cumulative hydrologic effects of forest management: a conceptual approach

Science.gov (United States)

Robert R. Ziemer

1992-01-01

It is impractical to address experimentally many aspects of cumulative hydrologic effects, since to do so would require studying large watersheds for a century or more. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted using three hypothetical 10,000-ha fifth-order forested watersheds. Most of the physical processes expressed by the model are transferable from temperate to...

Phenomenological pictures on the cumulative effect in nucleus-nucleus collisions at the incident kinetic energy of 3.65 A GeV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besliu, Calin; Jipa, Alexandru; Zaharia, Radu; Tugulea, Mircea; Iosif, Maria; Argintaru, Dan; Argintaru, Cristina

1996-01-01

In this work new experimental results on the cumulative production of the negative pions are reported. Eight central and peripheral (inelastic) collisions at 4.5 A GeV/c incident momentum are taken into account comparisons with experimental results on the cumulative effects obtained in n-p collisions at 4.53 GeV/c and O-Ne, O-Pb collisions at 4.5 A GeV/c are included in this work. A significant cumulative production of negative pions is observed. The non-equilibrium mechanisms can be considered for cumulative effect. The experiments have been performed at the Synchrophasotron from JINR Dubna in the frame of the SKM 200 Collaboration. (authors)

Examination of cumulative effects of early adolescent depression on cannabis and alcohol use disorder in late adolescence in a community-based cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Rhew, Isaac C; Fleming, Charles B; Vander Stoep, Ann; Nicodimos, Semret; Zheng, Cheng; McCauley, Elizabeth

2017-11-01

Although they often co-occur, the longitudinal relationship between depression and substance use disorders during adolescence remains unclear. This study estimated the effects of cumulative depression during early adolescence (ages 13-15 years) on the likelihood of cannabis use disorder (CUD) and alcohol use disorder (AUD) at age 18. Prospective cohort study of youth assessed at least annually between 6th and 9th grades (~ age 12-15) and again at age 18. Marginal structural models based on a counterfactual framework that accounted for both potential fixed and time-varying confounders were used to estimate cumulative effects of depressive symptoms over early adolescence. The sample originated from four public middle schools in Seattle, Washington, USA. The sample consisted of 521 youth (48.4% female; 44.5% were non-Hispanic White). Structured in-person interviews with youth and their parents were conducted to assess diagnostic symptom counts of depression during early adolescence; diagnoses of CUD and AUD at age 18 was based the Voice-Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children. Cumulative depression was defined as the sum of depression symptom counts from grades 7-9. The past-year prevalence of cannabis and alcohol use disorder at the age 18 study wave was 20.9 and 19.8%, respectively. A 1 standard deviation increase in cumulative depression during early adolescence was associated with a 50% higher likelihood of CUD [prevalence ratio (PR) = 1.50; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.07, 2.10]. Although similar in direction, there was no statistically significant association between depression and AUD (PR = 1.41; 95% CI = 0.94, 2.11). Further, there were no differences in associations according to gender. Youth with more chronic or severe forms of depression during early adolescence may be at elevated risk for developing cannabis use disorder compared with otherwise similar youth who experience fewer depressive symptoms during early adolescence. © 2017 Society

Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program

Science.gov (United States)

Bowerman, Paul N.; Scheuer, Ernest M.; Nolty, Robert

1990-01-01

Overflow and underflow in sums prevented. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program, CUMPOIS, one of two computer programs that make calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines cumulative Poisson distribution, used to evaluate cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and cdf for X (sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Written in C.

Cumulative effects, creeping enclosure, and the marine commons of New Jersey

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Grant Murray

2010-02-01

Full Text Available In response to declining fish stocks and increased societal concern, the marine ‘commons’ of New Jersey is no longer freely available to commercial and recreational fisheries. We discuss the concept of ‘creeping’ enclosure in relation to New Jersey’s marine fisheries and suggest that reduced access can be a cumulative process and function of multiple events and processes and need not be the result of a single regulatory moment. We begin with a short review of the ‘expected’ effects of enclosure, including loss of flexibility, erosion of community, proletarianization of fishermen, and corporatization of the fishery. We then present some findings of our research and discuss how the signs of enclosure are visible in fisheries that do not feature explicitly privatized property or access rights. We rely on an oral history approach and the rich detail that emerges from attention to the lived experiences of fish harvesters to provide a framework for understanding the range of cumulative effects that have resulted from this process of creeping enclosure. We conclude with a discussion of how the gradual process of enclosure has affected the flows of information between the bio-physical environment and fish harvesters, managers and scientists by reducing both participation in fisheries and the accumulation of knowledge itself.

Consideration of the FQPA Safety Factor and Other Uncertainty Factors in Cumulative Risk Assessment of Chemicals Sharing a Common Mechanism of Toxicity

Science.gov (United States)

This guidance document provides OPP's current thinking on application of the provision in FFDCA about an additional safety factor for the protection of infants and children in the context of cumulative risk assessments.

Higher order net-proton number cumulants dependence on the centrality definition and other spurious effects

Science.gov (United States)

Sombun, S.; Steinheimer, J.; Herold, C.; Limphirat, A.; Yan, Y.; Bleicher, M.

2018-02-01

We study the dependence of the normalized moments of the net-proton multiplicity distributions on the definition of centrality in relativistic nuclear collisions at a beam energy of \\sqrt{{s}{NN}}=7.7 {GeV}. Using the ultra relativistic quantum molecular dynamics model as event generator we find that the centrality definition has a large effect on the extracted cumulant ratios. Furthermore we find that the finite efficiency for the determination of the centrality introduces an additional systematic uncertainty. Finally, we quantitatively investigate the effects of event-pile up and other possible spurious effects which may change the measured proton number. We find that pile-up alone is not sufficient to describe the data and show that a random double counting of events, adding significantly to the measured proton number, affects mainly the higher order cumulants in most central collisions.

Cumulative effects analysis of the water quality risk of herbicides used for site preparation in the Central North Island, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Dan Neary; Brenda R. Baillie

2016-01-01

Herbicide use varies both spatially and temporally within managed forests. While information exists on the effects of herbicide use on water quality at the site and small catchment scale, little is known about the cumulative effects of herbicide use at the landscape scale. A cumulative effects analysis was conducted in the upper Rangitaiki catchment (118,345...

Science and societal partnerships to address cumulative impacts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carolyn J Lundquist

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Funding and priorities for ocean research are not separate from the underlying sociological, economic, and political landscapes that determine values attributed to ecological systems. Here we present a variation on science prioritisation exercises, focussing on inter-disciplinary research questions with the objective of shifting broad scale management practices to better address cumulative impacts and multiple users. Marine scientists in New Zealand from a broad range of scientific and social-scientific backgrounds ranked 48 statements of research priorities. At a follow up workshop, participants discussed five over-arching themes based on survey results. These themes were used to develop mechanisms to increase the relevance and efficiency of scientific research while acknowledging socio-economic and political drivers of research agendas in New Zealand’s ocean ecosystems. Overarching messages included the need to: 1 determine the conditions under which ‘surprises’ (sudden and substantive undesirable changes are likely to occur and the socio-ecological implications of such changes; 2 develop methodologies to reveal the complex and cumulative effects of change in marine systems, and their implications for resource use, stewardship, and restoration; 3 assess potential solutions to management issues that balance long-term and short-term benefits and encompass societal engagement in decision-making; 4 establish effective and appropriately resourced institutional networks to foster collaborative, solution-focused marine science; and 5 establish cross-disciplinary dialogues to translate diverse scientific and social-scientific knowledge into innovative regulatory, social and economic practice. In the face of multiple uses and cumulative stressors, ocean management frameworks must be adapted to build a collaborative framework across science, governance and society that can help stakeholders navigate uncertainties and socio-ecological surprises.

Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

2012-01-01

The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO2 relative to other major climate forcing agents. PMID:22869803

Cumulative Small Effect Genetic Markers and the Risk of Colorectal Cancer in Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia

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Pablo Serrano-Fernandez

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The continued identification of new low-penetrance genetic variants for colorectal cancer (CRC raises the question of their potential cumulative effect among compound carriers. We focused on 6 SNPs (rs380284, rs4464148, rs4779584, rs4939827, rs6983267, and rs10795668, already described as risk markers, and tested their possible independent and combined contribution to CRC predisposition. Material and Methods. DNA was collected and genotyped from 2330 unselected consecutive CRC cases and controls from Estonia (166 cases and controls, Latvia (81 cases and controls, Lithuania (123 cases and controls, and Poland (795 cases and controls. Results. Beyond individual effects, the analysis revealed statistically significant linear cumulative effects for these 6 markers for all samples except of the Latvian one (corrected P value = 0.018 for the Estonian, corrected P value = 0.0034 for the Lithuanian, and corrected P value = 0.0076 for the Polish sample. Conclusions. The significant linear cumulative effects demonstrated here support the idea of using sets of low-risk markers for delimiting new groups with high-risk of CRC in clinical practice that are not carriers of the usual CRC high-risk markers.

Effect of cumulative strain on texture characteristics during wire drawing of eutectoid steels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, F.; Ma, C.; Jiang, J.Q.; Feng, H.P.; Zhai, S.Y.

2008-01-01

The texture characteristics associated with plastic deformation of Fe-C steels near-eutectoid composition during a continuous cold drawing process were thoroughly investigated by orientation distribution function analysis based on X-ray diffraction. The effect of cumulative drawing strains on the fiber texture in drawn hypereutectoid and hypoeutectoid steel wires was discussed

Cumulative processes and quark distribution in nuclei

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kondratyuk, L.; Shmatikov, M.

1984-01-01

Assuming existence of multiquark (mainly 12q) bags in nuclei the spectra of cumulative nucleons and mesons produced in high-energy particle-nucleus collisions are discussed. The exponential form of quark momentum distribution in 12q-bag (agreeing well with the experimental data on lepton-nucleus interactions at large q 2 ) is shown to result in quasi-exponential distribution of cumulative particles over the light-cone variable αsub(B). The dependence of f(αsub(B); psub(perpendicular)) (where psub(perpendicular) is the transverse momentum of the bag) upon psub(perpendicular) is considered. The yields of cumulative resonances as well as effects related to the u- and d-quark distributions in N > Z nuclei being different are dicscussed

The Scarring Effects of Bankruptcy: Cumulative Disadvantage across Credit and Labor Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Maroto, Michelle

2012-01-01

As the recent economic crisis has demonstrated, inequality often spans credit and labor markets, supporting a system of cumulative disadvantage. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this research draws on stigma, cumulative disadvantage and status characteristics theories to examine whether credit and labor markets intersect…

High cumulants of conserved charges and their statistical uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Li-Zhu, Chen; Ye-Yin, Zhao; Xue, Pan; Zhi-Ming, Li; Yuan-Fang, Wu

2017-10-01

We study the influence of measured high cumulants of conserved charges on their associated statistical uncertainties in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. With a given number of events, the measured cumulants randomly fluctuate with an approximately normal distribution, while the estimated statistical uncertainties are found to be correlated with corresponding values of the obtained cumulants. Generally, with a given number of events, the larger the cumulants we measure, the larger the statistical uncertainties that are estimated. The error-weighted averaged cumulants are dependent on statistics. Despite this effect, however, it is found that the three sigma rule of thumb is still applicable when the statistics are above one million. Supported by NSFC (11405088, 11521064, 11647093), Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (2014CB845402) and Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST) (2016YFE0104800)

Cumulative effect of multiple trauma on symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and depression in adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Suliman, Sharain; Mkabile, Siyabulela G; Fincham, Dylan S; Ahmed, Rashid; Stein, Dan J; Seedat, Soraya

2009-01-01

Recent literature has indicated that exposure to multiple traumatic events in adults is associated with high levels of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depression. Against the backdrop of stressful life events and childhood abuse and neglect, we investigated the cumulative effect of multiple trauma exposure on PTSD, anxiety, and depression in an adolescent sample. One thousand one hundred forty 10th-grade learners from 9 Cape Town (South Africa) schools completed questionnaires on stressful life experiences; trauma exposure; and symptoms of anxiety, depression, and PTSD. Our population of interest for this study was adolescents between the ages of 14 and 18 years who had been exposed to serious, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, qualifying traumatic events. The final sample size was thus 922. Rates of trauma exposure, PTSD, depression, and anxiety were high. Controlling for sex, stressful life experiences in the past year, and childhood adversity, we found an effect of cumulative trauma exposure effect on PTSD and depression, with an increase in the number of traumas linearly associated with an increase in symptoms of PTSD (F((4,912)) = 7.60, P cumulative effect on anxiety. Our findings indicate that adolescents exposed to multiple traumas are more likely to experience more severe symptoms of PTSD and depression than those who experience a single event, with this effect independent of childhood adversity and everyday stressful life experiences. Exposure to multiple trauma, however, does not seem to be associated with more severe anxiety symptoms.

Cumulative keyboard strokes: a possible risk factor for carpal tunnel syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eleftheriou Andreas

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Contradictory reports have been published regarding the association of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome (CTS and the use of computer keyboard. Previous studies did not take into account the cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes among computer workers. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between cumulative keyboard use (keyboard strokes and CTS. Methods Employees (461 from a Governmental data entry & processing unit agreed to participate (response rate: 84.1 % in a cross-sectional study. Α questionnaire was distributed to the participants to obtain information on socio-demographics and risk factors for CTS. The participants were examined for signs and symptoms related to CTS and were asked if they had previous history or surgery for CTS. The cumulative amount of the keyboard strokes per worker per year was calculated by the use of payroll’s registry. Two case definitions for CTS were used. The first included subjects with personal history/surgery for CTS while the second included subjects that belonged to the first case definition plus those participants were identified through clinical examination. Results Multivariate analysis used for both case definitions, indicated that those employees with high cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes were at increased risk of CTS (case definition A: OR = 2.23;95 % CI = 1.09-4.52 and case definition B: OR = 2.41; 95%CI = 1.36-4.25. A dose response pattern between cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes and CTS has been revealed (p  Conclusions The present study indicated a possible association between cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes and development of CTS. Cumulative exposure to key-board strokes would be taken into account as an exposure indicator regarding exposure assessment of computer workers. Further research is needed in order to test the results of the current study and assess causality between cumulative keyboard strokes and

Cumulative Retrospective Exposure Assessment (REA) as a predictor of amphibole asbestos lung burden: validation procedures and results for industrial hygiene and pathology estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmuson, James O; Roggli, Victor L; Boelter, Fred W; Rasmuson, Eric J; Redinger, Charles F

2014-01-01

fiber-type. Both REA and pathology assessment are reliable and complementary predictive methods to characterize asbestos exposures. Correlation analysis between the two methods effectively validates both REA methodology and LBA procedures within the determined precision, particularly for cumulative amphibole asbestos exposures since chrysotile fibers, for the most part, are not retained in the lung for an extended period of time.

Stagewise pseudo-value regression for time-varying effects on the cumulative incidence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zöller, Daniela; Schmidtmann, Irene; Weinmann, Arndt

2016-01-01

In a competing risks setting, the cumulative incidence of an event of interest describes the absolute risk for this event as a function of time. For regression analysis, one can either choose to model all competing events by separate cause-specific hazard models or directly model the association...... for time-varying effects. This is implemented by coupling variable selection between the grid times, but determining estimates separately. The effect estimates are regularized to also allow for model fitting with a low to moderate number of observations. This technique is illustrated in an application...

Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Olazarán

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD, with control of vascular factors (VFs. Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (nD, past depression (pD, present depression (prD, and present and past depression (prpD. Logistic regression was used. Results. Data of 1,807 subjects were investigated at baseline (mean age 74.3, 59.3% women, and 1,376 (81.6% subjects were evaluated after three years. The prevalence of dementia at baseline was 6.7%, and dementia incidence was 6.3%. An effect of depression was observed on dementia prevalence (OR [CI 95%] 1.84 [1.01–3.35] for prD and 2.73 [1.08–6.87] for prpD, and on dementia due to AD (OR 1.98 [0.98–3.99] for prD and OR 3.98 [1.48–10.71] for prpD (fully adjusted models, nD as reference. Depression did not influence dementia incidence. Conclusions. Present depression and, particularly, present and past depression are associated with dementia at old age. Multiple mechanisms, including toxic effect of depression on hippocampal neurons, plausibly explain these associations.

Complete cumulative index (1963-1983)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

This complete cumulative index covers all regular and special issues and supplements published by Atomic Energy Review (AER) during its lifetime (1963-1983). The complete cumulative index consists of six Indexes: the Index of Abstracts, the Subject Index, the Title Index, the Author Index, the Country Index and the Table of Elements Index. The complete cumulative index supersedes the Cumulative Indexes for Volumes 1-7: 1963-1969 (1970), and for Volumes 1-10: 1963-1972 (1972); this Index also finalizes Atomic Energy Review, the publication of which has recently been terminated by the IAEA

Cumulative Training Dose's Effects on Interrelationships Between Common Training-Load Models During Basketball Activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlan, Aaron T; Fox, Jordan L; Borges, Nattai R; Dascombe, Ben J; Dalbo, Vincent J

2017-02-01

The influence of various factors on training-load (TL) responses in basketball has received limited attention. This study aimed to examine the temporal changes and influence of cumulative training dose on TL responses and interrelationships during basketball activity. Ten state-level Australian male junior basketball players completed 4 × 10-min standardized bouts of simulated basketball activity using a circuit-based protocol. Internal TL was quantified using the session rating of perceived exertion (sRPE), summated heart-rate zones (SHRZ), Banister training impulse (TRIMP), and Lucia TRIMP models. External TL was assessed via measurement of mean sprint and circuit speeds. Temporal TL comparisons were performed between 10-min bouts, while Pearson correlation analyses were conducted across cumulative training doses (0-10, 0-20, 0-30, and 0-40 min). sRPE TL increased (P basketball activity. sRPE TL was only significantly related to Lucia TRIMP (r = .66-.69; P basketball training doses lasting beyond 20 min. Thus, the interchangeability of commonly used internal and external TL approaches appears dose-dependent during basketball activity, with various psychophysiological mediators likely underpinning temporal changes.

Childhood Cumulative Risk and Later Allostatic Load

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Doan, Stacey N; Dich, Nadya; Evans, Gary W

2014-01-01

State, followed for 8 years (between the ages 9 and 17). Poverty- related stress was computed using the cumulative risk approach, assessing stressors across 9 domains, including environmental, psychosocial, and demographic factors. Allostatic load captured a range of physiological responses, including......Objective: The present study investigated the long-term impact of exposure to poverty-related stressors during childhood on allostatic load, an index of physiological dysregulation, and the potential mediating role of substance use. Method: Participants (n = 162) were rural children from New York...... cardiovascular, hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis, sympathetic adrenal medullary system, and metabolic activity. Smoking and alcohol/drug use were tested as mediators of the hypothesized childhood risk-adolescent allostatic load relationship. Results: Cumulative risk exposure at age 9 predicted increases...

The effect of ilmenite viscosity on the dynamics and evolution of an overturned lunar cumulate mantle

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Nan; Dygert, Nick; Liang, Yan; Parmentier, E. M.

2017-07-01

Lunar cumulate mantle overturn and the subsequent upwelling of overturned mantle cumulates provide a potential framework for understanding the first-order thermochemical evolution of the Moon. Upwelling of ilmenite-bearing cumulates (IBCs) after the overturn has a dominant influence on the dynamics and long-term thermal evolution of the lunar mantle. An important parameter determining the stability and convective behavior of the IBC is its viscosity, which was recently constrained through rock deformation experiments. To examine the effect of IBC viscosity on the upwelling of overturned lunar cumulate mantle, here we conduct three-dimensional mantle convection models with an evolving core superposed by an IBC-rich layer, which resulted from mantle overturn after magma ocean solidification. Our modeling shows that a reduction of mantle viscosity by 1 order of magnitude, due to the presence of ilmenite, can dramatically change convective planform and long-term lunar mantle evolution. Our model results suggest a relatively stable partially molten IBC layer that has surrounded the lunar core to the present day.Plain Language SummaryThe Moon's mantle is locally ilmenite rich. Previous models exploring the convective evolution of the lunar mantle did not consider the effects of ilmenite viscosity. Recent rock deformation experiments demonstrate that Fe-Ti oxide (ilmenite) is a low viscosity phase compared to olivine and other silicate minerals. Our modeling shows that ilmenite changes the lunar mantle plume process. An ilmenite-rich layer around the lunar core would be highly stable throughout geologic time, consistent with a partially molten, low viscosity layer around the core inferred from seismic attenuation and tidal dissipation.

Cumulative Effects of Exposure to Violence on Posttraumatic Stress in Palestinian and Israeli Youth

Science.gov (United States)

Dubow, Eric F.; Boxer, Paul; Huesmann, L. Rowell; Landau, Simha; Dvir, Shira; Shikaki, Khalil; Ginges, Jeremy

2012-01-01

We examine cumulative and prospective effects of exposure to conflict and violence across four contexts (ethnic-political, community, family, school) on posttraumatic stress (PTS) symptoms in Palestinian and Israeli youth. Interviews were conducted with 600 Palestinian and 901 Israeli (Jewish and Arab) children (ages 8, 11, and 14) and their…

GIS based procedure of cumulative environmental impact assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Balakrishna Reddy, M; Blah, Baiantimon

2009-07-01

Scale and spatial limits of impact assessment study in a GIS platform are two very important factors that could have a bearing on the genuineness and quality of impact assessment. While effect of scale has been documented and well understood, no significant study has been carried out on spatial considerations in an impact assessment study employing GIS technique. A novel technique of impact assessment demonstrable through GIS approach termed hereby as 'spatial data integrated GIS impact assessment method (SGIAM)' is narrated in this paper. The technique makes a fundamental presumption that the importance of environmental impacts is dependent, among other things, on spatial distribution of the effects of the proposed action and of the affected receptors in a study area. For each environmental component considered (e.g., air quality), impact indices are calculated through aggregation of impact indicators which are measures of the severity of the impact. The presence and spread of environmental descriptors are suitably quantified through modeling techniques and depicted. The environmental impact index is calculated from data exported from ArcINFO, thus giving significant importance to spatial data in the impact assessment exercise.

Study on the cumulative impact of reclamation activities on ecosystem health in coastal waters.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Chengcheng; Shi, Honghua; Zheng, Wei; Li, Fen; Peng, Shitao; Ding, Dewen

2016-02-15

The purpose of this study is to develop feasible tools to investigate the cumulative impact of reclamations on coastal ecosystem health, so that the strategies of ecosystem-based management can be applied in the coastal zone. An indicator system and model were proposed to assess the cumulative impact synthetically. Two coastal water bodies, namely Laizhou Bay (LZB) and Tianjin coastal waters (TCW), in the Bohai Sea of China were studied and compared, each in a different phase of reclamations. Case studies showed that the indicator scores of coastal ecosystem health in LZB and TCW were 0.75 and 0.68 out of 1.0, respectively. It can be concluded that coastal reclamations have a historically cumulative effect on benthic environment, whose degree is larger than that on aquatic environment. The ecosystem-based management of coastal reclamations should emphasize the spatially and industrially intensive layout. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlation of cumulative corticosteroid treatment with magnetic resonance imaging assessment of avascular femoral head necrosis in patients with multiple sclerosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nilufer Kale

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Increased risk of osteoporosis, fractures, and avascular necrosis (AVN has been suggested in multiple sclerosis (MS. Patients with MS are often exposed to corticosteroid treatment (CST during the disease course and conflicting reports exist regarding complications of CST. Our study aims to investigate the association between cumulative doses of CST and radiographic evaluation of AVN of the femoral head in MS. Twenty-six MS patients (mean age, 38.4±10 yr were enrolled and prospectively evaluated for AVN by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI. The mean disease duration was 11.5±8.5 years and mean expanded disability status scale (EDSS score was 3±2. The cumulative dosage of CST varied between 20 g and 60 g; patients were grouped into two categories: 1 CST between 20-40 g, 17 (65% patients; 2 CST ≥40 g; 9 (35% patients. The relationship between cumulative CST dosage and MRI diagnosis of AVN was stat­istically insignificant (P>0.9. Clarification of the cumulative effect of CST in the development of AVN is of great importance for future long-term steroid treatment strategies.

Several problems of cumulative effective mass fraction in anti-seismic analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Wei; Sheng Feng; Li Hailong; Wen Jing; Luan Lin

2005-01-01

Cumulative Effective Mass Fraction (CEMF) is one of important items which sign the accuracy in antiseismic analysis. Based on the primary theories of CEMF, the paper show the influence of CEMF on the accuracy in antiseismic analysis. Moreover, some advices and ways are given to solve common problems in antiseismic analysis, such as how to increase CEMF, how to avoid the mass's loss because of the torsional frequency's being close to the frequency corresponding to the peak of seismic response spectrum, how to avoid the mass's loss because of the constraints, and so on. (authors)

Cumulative Intracranial Tumor Volume Augments the Prognostic Value of Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment Model for Survival in Patients with Melanoma Cerebral Metastases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hirshman, Brian R; Wilson, Bayard R; Ali, Mir Amaan

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment scale (ds-GPA) for patients with melanoma brain metastasis (BM) utilizes only 2 key prognostic variables: Karnofsky performance status and the number of intracranial metastases. We wished to determine whether inclusion of cumulative ...

Cumulative stress and autonomic dysregulation in a community sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Lampert, Rachel; Tuit, Keri; Hong, Kwang-Ik; Donovan, Theresa; Lee, Forrester; Sinha, Rajita

2016-05-01

Whether cumulative stress, including both chronic stress and adverse life events, is associated with decreased heart rate variability (HRV), a non-invasive measure of autonomic status which predicts poor cardiovascular outcomes, is unknown. Healthy community dwelling volunteers (N = 157, mean age 29 years) participated in the Cumulative Stress/Adversity Interview (CAI), a 140-item event interview measuring cumulative adversity including major life events, life trauma, recent life events and chronic stressors, and underwent 24-h ambulatory ECG monitoring. HRV was analyzed in the frequency domain and standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN) calculated. Initial simple regression analyses revealed that total cumulative stress score, chronic stressors and cumulative adverse life events (CALE) were all inversely associated with ultra low-frequency (ULF), very low-frequency (VLF) and low-frequency (LF) power and SDNN (all p accounting for additional appreciable variance. For VLF and LF, both total cumulative stress and chronic stress significantly contributed to the variance alone but were not longer significant after adjusting for race and health behaviors. In summary, total cumulative stress, and its components of adverse life events and chronic stress were associated with decreased cardiac autonomic function as measured by HRV. Findings suggest one potential mechanism by which stress may exert adverse effects on mortality in healthy individuals. Primary preventive strategies including stress management may prove beneficial.

Unique versus cumulative effects of physical and sexual assault on patterns of adolescent substance use

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Charak, R.; Koot, H. M.; Dvorak, R. D.

2015-01-01

The present study assessed the unique versus cumulative effects of physical and sexual assault, on patterns of substance-use in adolescents. It was hypothesized that experiencing a single assault (physical or sexual) when compared with exposure to both physical and sexual assault would be more...... strongly related to membership of polysubstance use classes. From the National Survey of Adolescents-1995 (N=4023) 918 adolescents (age range=12-17 years, M=14.92, 49.6% female) with reports of physical assault and/or sexual assault were selected. Using information on alcohol-use, cigarette...... to a single type of assault those exposed to both physical and sexual assault were two-to-three times more likely to be in the heavier polysubstance-use class. Females were more likely to be members of the polysubstance-use class than of the experimental use class. Gender did not emerge as a significant...

Repeated exposure to high-frequency spanking and child externalizing behavior across the first decade: a moderating role for cumulative risk.

Science.gov (United States)

MacKenzie, Michael J; Nicklas, Eric; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne; Waldfogel, Jane

2014-12-01

This study used the Fragile Families and Child Well-Being Study to examine the effects of repeated exposure to harsh parenting on child externalizing behavior across the first decade of life, and a moderating role for cumulative ecological risk. Maternal report of harsh parenting, defined as high frequency spanking, was assessed at age 1, 3, 5, and 9, along with child externalizing at age 9 (N=2,768). Controlling for gender, race, maternal nativity, and city of residence, we found a cumulative risk index to significantly moderate the effects of repeated harsh parenting on child behavior, with the effects of repeated high-frequency spanking being amplified for those experiencing greater levels of cumulative risk. Harsh parenting, in the form of high frequency spanking, remains a too common experience for children, and results demonstrate that the effects of repeated exposure to harsh parenting across the first decade are amplified for those children already facing the most burden. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Measurement of four-particle cumulants and symmetric cumulants with subevent methods in small collision systems with the ATLAS detector

CERN Document Server

Derendarz, Dominik; The ATLAS collaboration

2018-01-01

Measurements of symmetric cumulants SC(n,m)=⟨v2nv2m⟩−⟨v2n⟩⟨v2m⟩ for (n,m)=(2,3) and (2,4) and asymmetric cumulant AC(n) are presented in pp, p+Pb and peripheral Pb+Pb collisions at various collision energies, aiming to probe the long-range collective nature of multi-particle production in small systems. Results are obtained using the standard cumulant method, as well as the two-subevent and three-subevent cumulant methods. Results from the standard method are found to be strongly biased by non-flow correlations as indicated by strong sensitivity to the chosen event class definition. A systematic reduction of non-flow effects is observed when using the two-subevent method and the results become independent of event class definition when the three-subevent method is used. The measured SC(n,m) shows an anti-correlation between v2 and v3, and a positive correlation between v2 and v4. The magnitude of SC(n,m) is constant with Nch in pp collisions, but increases with Nch in p+Pb and Pb+Pb collisions. ...

Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frölicher, Thomas L; Paynter, David J

2015-01-01

The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and nearly independent of the emissions scenario. Here, we use simulations of the Earth System Model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to show that global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.5 °C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2 °C global warming, implying an increase in the coefficient relating global warming to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-centennial timescales. The simulations also suggest a 20% lower quota on cumulative carbon emissions allowed to achieve a policy-driven limit on global warming. ESM estimates from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5–ESMs) qualitatively agree on this result, whereas Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) simulations, used in the IPCC 5th assessment report to assess the robustness of TCRE on multi-centennial timescales, suggest a post-emissions decrease in temperature. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the smaller simulated realized warming fraction in CMIP5–ESMs, including GFDL ESM2M, than in EMICs when carbon emissions increase. The temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different phases and the linear TCRE framework is only valid during the first phase when carbon emissions increase. For longer timescales, when emissions tape off, two new metrics are introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions: the equilibrium climate response to cumulative carbon emissions and the multi-millennial climate response to cumulative carbon emissions. (letter)

Cumulative trauma and midlife well-being in American women who served in Vietnam: effects of combat exposure and postdeployment social support.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Crystal L; Wachen, Jennifer Schuster; Kaiser, Anica Pless; Mager Stellman, Jeanne

2015-01-01

Research increasingly demonstrates that trauma exposure can have cumulative effects, yet much remains to be learned about effects of cumulative trauma, particularly regarding longer term adjustment. One such trauma, combat exposure, is insufficiently understood, especially for women, who are increasingly engaged in professional combat activities. The study comprised a cross-sectional survey assessing multiple aspects of current well-being in women approximately 25 years after their service in Vietnam during the Vietnam War. Participants were 1374 women (78% military and 22% nonmilitary; mean age = 59.7). This study investigated the relations between three separate categories of trauma exposure (childhood, adulthood, and combat) and well-being and examined whether perceived social support at return from Vietnam moderated the association between combat exposure and well-being. While both childhood and adulthood trauma exposure related to midlife well-being, combat exposure still uniquely predicted outcomes. Further, postdeployment perceived social support moderated the association of combat and well-being: recollected higher perceived social support at homecoming buffered participants from the links between combat exposure and well-being. These results may have important implications for interventions to reduce the impact of traumatic experiences, particularly in light of the increasing exposure of women to direct combat events.

EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

Science.gov (United States)

Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary, Annual Report 2004

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Roegner, Curtis; Thom, Ronald M.; Dawley, Earl M.; Whiting, Allan H.; Johnson, Gary E.; Sobocinski, Kathryn L.; Anderson, Michael G.; Ebberts, Blaine

2005-12-15

The restoration of wetland salmon habitat in the tidal portion of the Columbia River is occurring at an accelerating pace and is anticipated to improve habitat quality and effect hydrological reconnection between existing and restored habitats. Currently multiple groups are applying a variety of restoration strategies in an attempt to emulate historic estuarine processes. However, the region lacks both a standardized means of evaluating the effectiveness of individual projects as well as methods for determining the cumulative effects of all restoration projects on a regional scale. This project is working to establish a framework to evaluate individual and cumulative ecosystem responses to restoration activities in order to validate the effectiveness of habitat restoration activities designed to benefit salmon through improvements to habitat quality and habitat opportunity (i.e. access) in the Columbia River from Bonneville Dam to the ocean. The review and synthesis of approaches to measure the cumulative effects of multiple restoration projects focused on defining methods and metrics of relevance to the CRE, and, in particular, juvenile salmon use of this system. An extensive literature review found no previous study assessing the cumulative effects of multiple restoration projects on the fundamental processes and functions of a large estuarine system, although studies are underway in other large land-margin ecosystems including the Florida Everglades and the Louisiana coastal wetlands. Literature from a variety of scientific disciplines was consulted to identify the ways that effects can accumulate (e.g., delayed effects, cross-boundary effects, compounding effects, indirect effects, triggers and thresholds) as well as standard and innovative tools and methods utilized in cumulative effects analyses: conceptual models, matrices, checklists, modeling, trends analysis, geographic information systems, carrying capacity analysis, and ecosystem analysis. Potential

Oral contraceptive use and impact of cumulative intake of estrogen and progestin on risk of ovarian cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faber, M T; Jensen, A; Frederiksen, K

2013-01-01

Oral contraceptive use decreases the risk of ovarian cancer, but no previous studies have assessed the impact of cumulative intake of estrogen and progestin on ovarian cancer risk.......Oral contraceptive use decreases the risk of ovarian cancer, but no previous studies have assessed the impact of cumulative intake of estrogen and progestin on ovarian cancer risk....

The injury and cumulative effects on human skin by UV exposure from artificial fluorescence emission.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Yan; Liu, Wei; Niu, TianHui; Dai, CaiHong; Li, Xiaoxin; Cui, Caijuan; Zhao, Xinyan; E, Yaping; Lu, Hui

2014-01-01

The injury and cumulative effects of UV emission from fluorescence lamp were studied. UV intensity from fluorescence lamp was measured, and human skin samples (hips, 10 volunteers) were exposed to low-dose UV irradiation (three times per week for 13 consecutive weeks). Three groups were examined: control group without UV radiation; low-dose group with a cumulative dose of 50 J cm(-2) which was equivalent to irradiation of the face during indoor work for 1.5 years; and high-dose group with 1000 J cm(-2) cumulative dose equivalent to irradiation of the face during outdoor activities for 1 year. Specific indicators were measured before and after UVA irradiation. The findings showed that extending the low-dose UVA exposure decreased the skin moisture content and increased the transepidermal water loss as well as induced skin color changes (decreased L* value, increased M index). Furthermore, irradiated skin showed an increased thickness of cuticle and epidermis, skin edema, light color and unclear staining collagen fibers in the dermis, and elastic fiber fragmentation. In addition, MMP-1, p53 and SIRT1 expression was also increased. Long-term exposure of low-dose UVA radiation enhanced skin photoaging. The safety of the fluorescent lamp needs our attention. © 2014 The American Society of Photobiology.

Addressing trend-related changes within cumulative effects studies in water resources planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Canter, L.W.; Chawla, M.K.; Swor, C.T.

2014-01-01

Summarized herein are 28 case studies wherein trend-related causative physical, social, or institutional changes were connected to consequential changes in runoff, water quality, and riparian and aquatic ecological features. The reviewed cases were systematically evaluated relative to their identified environmental effects; usage of analytical frameworks, and appropriate models, methods, and technologies; and the attention given to mitigation and/or management of the resultant causative and consequential changes. These changes also represent important considerations in project design and operation, and in cumulative effects studies associated therewith. The cases were grouped into five categories: institutional changes associated with legislation and policies (seven cases); physical changes from land use changes in urbanizing watersheds (eight cases); physical changes from land use changes and development projects in watersheds (four cases); physical, institutional, and social changes from land use and related policy changes in river basins (three cases); and multiple changes within a comprehensive study of land use and policy changes in the Willamette River Basin in Oregon (six cases). A tabulation of 110 models, methods and technologies used in the studies is also presented. General observations from this review were that the features were unique for each case; the consequential changes were logically based on the causative changes; the analytical frameworks provided relevant structures for the studies, and the identified methods and technologies were pertinent for addressing both the causative and consequential changes. One key lesson was that the cases provide useful, “real-world” illustrations of the importance of addressing trend-related changes in cumulative effects studies within water resources planning. Accordingly, they could be used as an “initial tool kit” for addressing trend-related changes

Addressing trend-related changes within cumulative effects studies in water resources planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Canter, L.W., E-mail: envimptr@aol.com [University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma and President, Canter Associates, Inc., Horseshoe Bay, TX (United States); Chawla, M.K. [ERDC-CERL, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Champaign, IL (United States); Swor, C.T. [Canter Associates, Inc., Frankewing, TN (United States)

2014-01-15

Summarized herein are 28 case studies wherein trend-related causative physical, social, or institutional changes were connected to consequential changes in runoff, water quality, and riparian and aquatic ecological features. The reviewed cases were systematically evaluated relative to their identified environmental effects; usage of analytical frameworks, and appropriate models, methods, and technologies; and the attention given to mitigation and/or management of the resultant causative and consequential changes. These changes also represent important considerations in project design and operation, and in cumulative effects studies associated therewith. The cases were grouped into five categories: institutional changes associated with legislation and policies (seven cases); physical changes from land use changes in urbanizing watersheds (eight cases); physical changes from land use changes and development projects in watersheds (four cases); physical, institutional, and social changes from land use and related policy changes in river basins (three cases); and multiple changes within a comprehensive study of land use and policy changes in the Willamette River Basin in Oregon (six cases). A tabulation of 110 models, methods and technologies used in the studies is also presented. General observations from this review were that the features were unique for each case; the consequential changes were logically based on the causative changes; the analytical frameworks provided relevant structures for the studies, and the identified methods and technologies were pertinent for addressing both the causative and consequential changes. One key lesson was that the cases provide useful, “real-world” illustrations of the importance of addressing trend-related changes in cumulative effects studies within water resources planning. Accordingly, they could be used as an “initial tool kit” for addressing trend-related changes.

Depressive Symptoms in College Women: Examining the Cumulative Effect of Childhood and Adulthood Domestic Violence.

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Modallal, Hanan

2016-10-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the cumulative effect of childhood and adulthood violence on depressive symptoms in a sample of Jordanian college women. Snowball sampling technique was used to recruit the participants. The participants were heterosexual college-aged women between the ages of 18 and 25. The participants were asked about their experiences of childhood violence (including physical violence, sexual violence, psychological violence, and witnessing parental violence), partner violence (including physical partner violence and sexual partner violence), experiences of depressive symptoms, and about other demographic and familial factors as possible predictors for their complaints of depressive symptoms. Multiple linear regression analysis was implemented to identify demographic- and violence-related predictors of their complainants of depressive symptoms. Logistic regression analysis was further performed to identify possible type(s) of violence associated with the increased risk of depressive symptoms. The prevalence of depressive symptoms in this sample was 47.4%. For the violence experience, witnessing parental violence was the most common during childhood, experienced by 40 (41.2%) women, and physical partner violence was the most common in adulthood, experienced by 35 (36.1%) women. Results of logistic regression analysis indicated that experiencing two types of violence (regardless of the time of occurrence) was significant in predicting depressive symptoms (odds ratio [OR] = 3.45, p < .05). Among college women's demographic characteristics, marital status (single vs. engaged), mothers' level of education, income, and smoking were significant in predicting depressive symptoms. Assessment of physical violence and depressive symptoms including the cumulative impact of longer periods of violence on depressive symptoms is recommended to be explored in future studies. © The Author(s) 2015.

Cumulative Environmental Impacts: Science and Policy to Protect Communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Solomon, Gina M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Zeise, Lauren; Faust, John B

2016-01-01

Many communities are located near multiple sources of pollution, including current and former industrial sites, major roadways, and agricultural operations. Populations in such locations are predominantly low-income, with a large percentage of minorities and non-English speakers. These communities face challenges that can affect the health of their residents, including limited access to health care, a shortage of grocery stores, poor housing quality, and a lack of parks and open spaces. Environmental exposures may interact with social stressors, thereby worsening health outcomes. Age, genetic characteristics, and preexisting health conditions increase the risk of adverse health effects from exposure to pollutants. There are existing approaches for characterizing cumulative exposures, cumulative risks, and cumulative health impacts. Although such approaches have merit, they also have significant constraints. New developments in exposure monitoring, mapping, toxicology, and epidemiology, especially when informed by community participation, have the potential to advance the science on cumulative impacts and to improve decision making.

The cumulative effect of consecutive winters' snow depth on moose and deer populations: a defence

Science.gov (United States)

McRoberts, R.E.; Mech, L.D.; Peterson, R.O.

1995-01-01

1. L. D. Mech et al. presented evidence that moose Alces alces and deer Odocoileus virginianus population parameters re influenced by a cumulative effect of three winters' snow depth. They postulated that snow depth affects adult ungulates cumulatively from winter to winter and results in measurable offspring effects after the third winter. 2. F. Messier challenged those findings and claimed that the population parameters studied were instead affected by ungulate density and wolf indexes. 3. This paper refutes Messier's claims by demonstrating that his results were an artifact of two methodological errors. The first was that, in his main analyses, Messier used only the first previous winter's snow depth rather than the sum of the previous three winters' snow depth, which was the primary point of Mech et al. Secondly, Messier smoothed the ungulate population data, which removed 22-51% of the variability from the raw data. 4. When we repeated Messier's analyses on the raw data and using the sum of the previous three winter's snow depth, his findings did not hold up.

Divergent Cumulative Cultural Evolution

OpenAIRE

Marriott, Chris; Chebib, Jobran

2016-01-01

Divergent cumulative cultural evolution occurs when the cultural evolutionary trajectory diverges from the biological evolutionary trajectory. We consider the conditions under which divergent cumulative cultural evolution can occur. We hypothesize that two conditions are necessary. First that genetic and cultural information are stored separately in the agent. Second cultural information must be transferred horizontally between agents of different generations. We implement a model with these ...

Synergistic effect of cumulative corticosteroid dose and immunosuppressants on avascular necrosis in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, H H; Bang, S Y; Won, S; Park, Y; Yi, J H; Joo, Y B; Lee, H S; Bae, S C

2018-01-01

Objectives Avascular necrosis (AVN) is one of the most common causes of organ damage in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and often causes serious physical disability. The aims of this study were to investigate clinical risk factors associated with symptomatic AVN and to analyze their synergistic effects in a large SLE cohort in Korea. Methods Patients with SLE were enrolled and followed from 1998 to 2014 in the Hanyang BAE Lupus cohort, and damage was measured annually according to the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index (SDI). AVN was confirmed by imaging study if patients had symptoms. To determine risk factors for AVN, clinical, laboratory and therapeutic variables were analyzed by logistic regression. Relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI), attributable proportion (AP), and synergy index (S) were calculated to measure interactions between significant variables. Results Among 1219 SLE patients, symptomatic AVN was the most common type of musculoskeletal damage (10.8%, n = 132). SLE patients with AVN showed an earlier onset age, demonstrated AVN more commonly in conjunction with certain other clinical manifestations such as renal and neuropsychiatric disorders, and received significantly higher total cumulative corticosteroid dose and immunosuppressive agents than did patients without AVN. However, in multivariable analysis, only two variables including use of a cumulative corticosteroid dose greater than 20 g (odds ratio (OR) 3.62, p = 0.015) and use of immunosuppressants including cyclophosphamide or mycophenolate mofetil (OR 4.51, p AVN. Patients with cumulative corticosteroid dose > 20 g and immunosuppressant use had a 15.44-fold increased risk for AVN, compared with patients without these risk factors ( p AVN in our Korean lupus cohort. Conclusions An individual risk assessment for AVN development should be made prior to and during treatment for SLE

An Integrated Cumulative Transformation and Feature Fusion Approach for Bearing Degradation Prognostics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lixiang Duan

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Aimed at degradation prognostics of a rolling bearing, this paper proposed a novel cumulative transformation algorithm for data processing and a feature fusion technique for bearing degradation assessment. First, a cumulative transformation is presented to map the original features extracted from a vibration signal to their respective cumulative forms. The technique not only makes the extracted features show a monotonic trend but also reduces the fluctuation; such properties are more propitious to reflect the bearing degradation trend. Then, a new degradation index system is constructed, which fuses multidimensional cumulative features by kernel principal component analysis (KPCA. Finally, an extreme learning machine model based on phase space reconstruction is proposed to predict the degradation trend. The model performance is experimentally validated with a whole-life experiment of a rolling bearing. The results prove that the proposed method reflects the bearing degradation process clearly and achieves a good balance between model accuracy and complexity.

Cumulative and competitive effects of chemical elements on nuclear glass alteration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arena, Helene

2016-01-01

This work takes place in the context of the long-term behavior of nuclear glasses under repository conditions. The main objective is to identify, understand and compare the effects of some chemical elements present in the glass composition and/or in the repository media (Zn, Mg, Ni, Co, Fe, Ca, Gd, Ce, K, Cs, Cr and Ag) on the processes involved in glass alteration by water. The cumulative or competitive nature of the effects of these chemical elements was determined. To reach this goal, a 6 oxides simple glass (ISG) has been altered for more than 500 days in a solution containing one or more of the chemical elements of interest. The results indicate that Zn, Mg, Ni, Co and Fe elements increase glass alteration forming secondary phases with the same structure and stoichiometry (tri-octahedral smectites). To form, these silicates consume chemical elements (Si, Al) from the environment and induce a pH decrease until a limiting value of pH. Beyond this pH the precipitation of secondary phases is inhibited and these chemical elements can be integrated into the gel, replacing Ca whose solubility increases at lower pH. As long as they form secondary phases, the effects of these elements are cumulative. Rare earths Gd and Ce also increase glass alteration forming secondary phases but their effects are lower as they contain less silicon. These elements are not integrated in the gel. Chromium increases glass alteration by precipitating with Ca and leading to a less protective gel, depleted in Ca. Silver precipitates as AgCl and has no effect on the alteration of the glass. The chemical elements K, Cs and Ca limit glass alteration by integrating into the gel and slowing down the transport phenomena therein. This integration is competitive: the order of integration (quantity and effectiveness glass alteration limitation) is the following Ca≥≥Cs≥K. Thus, the increase of glass alteration may be proportional to the quantity of elements promoting the precipitation of

Community Engaged Cumulative Risk Assessment of Exposure to Inorganic Well Water Contaminants, Crow Reservation, Montana

Science.gov (United States)

Doyle, John T.; Lefthand, Myra J.; Young, Sara L.; Kindness, Larry; Other Medicine, Roberta; Ford, Timothy E.; Dietrich, Eric; Parker, Albert E.; Hoover, Joseph H.; Camper, Anne K.

2018-01-01

An estimated 11 million people in the US have home wells with unsafe levels of hazardous metals and nitrate. The national scope of the health risk from consuming this water has not been assessed as home wells are largely unregulated and data on well water treatment and consumption are lacking. Here, we assessed health risks from consumption of contaminated well water on the Crow Reservation by conducting a community-engaged, cumulative risk assessment. Well water testing, surveys and interviews were used to collect data on contaminant concentrations, water treatment methods, well water consumption, and well and septic system protection and maintenance practices. Additive Hazard Index calculations show that the water in more than 39% of wells is unsafe due to uranium, manganese, nitrate, zinc and/or arsenic. Most families’ financial resources are limited, and 95% of participants do not employ water treatment technologies. Despite widespread high total dissolved solids, poor taste and odor, 80% of families consume their well water. Lack of environmental health literacy about well water safety, pre-existing health conditions and limited environmental enforcement also contribute to vulnerability. Ensuring access to safe drinking water and providing accompanying education are urgent public health priorities for Crow and other rural US families with low environmental health literacy and limited financial resources. PMID:29304032

Acquisition of choice in concurrent chains: Assessing the cumulative decision model.

Science.gov (United States)

Grace, Randolph C

2016-05-01

Concurrent chains is widely used to study pigeons' choice between terminal links that can vary in delay, magnitude, or probability of reinforcement. We review research on the acquisition of choice in this procedure. Acquisition has been studied with a variety of research designs, and some studies have incorporated no-food trials to allow for timing and choice to be observed concurrently. Results show that: Choice can be acquired rapidly within sessions when terminal links change unpredictably; under steady-state conditions, acquisition depends on both initial- and terminal-link schedules; and initial-link responding is mediated by learning about the terminal-link stimulus-reinforcer relations. The cumulative decision model (CDM) proposed by Christensen and Grace (2010) and Grace and McLean (2006, 2015) provides a good description of within-session acquisition, and correctly predicts the effects of initial and terminal-link schedules in steady-state designs (Grace, 2002a). Questions for future research include how abrupt shifts in preference within individual sessions and temporal control of terminal-link responding can be modeled. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do Holocaust survivors show increased vulnerability or resilience to post-Holocaust cumulative adversity?

Science.gov (United States)

Shrira, Amit; Palgi, Yuval; Ben-Ezra, Menachem; Shmotkin, Dov

2010-06-01

Prior trauma can hinder coping with additional adversity or inoculate against the effect of recurrent adversity. The present study further addressed this issue by examining whether a subsample of Holocaust survivors and comparison groups, drawn from the Israeli component of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe, were differentially affected by post-Holocaust cumulative adversity. Post-Holocaust cumulative adversity had a stronger effect on the lifetime depression of Holocaust survivors than on that of comparisons. However, comparisons were more negatively affected by post-Holocaust cumulative adversity when examining markers of physical and cognitive functioning. Our findings suggest that previous trauma can both sensitize and immunize, as Holocaust survivors show general resilience intertwined with specific vulnerability when confronted with additional cumulative adversity.

Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary, Annual Report 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, Gary E.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Borde, Amy B.; Dawley, Earl M.; Ebberts, Blaine D.; Putman, Douglas A.; Roegner, G. C.; Russell, Micah; Skalski, John R.; Thom, Ronald M.; Vavrinec, John

2008-10-01

The goal of this multi-year study (2004-2010) is to develop a methodology to evaluate the cumulative effects of multiple habitat restoration projects intended to benefit ecosystems supporting juvenile salmonids in the lower Columbia River and estuary. Literature review in 2004 revealed no existing methods for such an evaluation and suggested that cumulative effects could be additive or synergistic. Field research in 2005, 2006, and 2007 involved intensive, comparative studies paired by habitat type (tidal swamp vs. marsh), trajectory (restoration vs. reference site), and restoration action (tide gate vs. culvert vs. dike breach). The field work established two kinds of monitoring indicators for eventual cumulative effects analysis: core and higher-order indicators. Management implications of limitations and applications of site-specific effectiveness monitoring and cumulative effects analysis were identified.

On the development of online cities and neighborhoods: an exploration of cumulative and segmentive network effects in social media

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maris, I.; Huizinga, A; Bouman, W.; Tuunainen, V.K.; Rossi, M.; Nandhakumar, J.

2011-01-01

This paper outlines a research in progress set to study network effects in social media. The focus is on outlining the theoretical framework in which this study is embedded. The concepts of cumulative network effects and segmentive network effects are introduced to explain the processes by which

Cumulative risk effects for the development of behaviour difficulties in children and adolescents with special educational needs and disabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Oldfield, Jeremy; Humphrey, Neil; Hebron, Judith

2015-01-01

Research has identified multiple risk factors for the development of behaviour difficulties. What have been less explored are the cumulative effects of exposure to multiple risks on behavioural outcomes, with no study specifically investigating these effects within a population of young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Furthermore, it is unclear whether a threshold or linear risk model better fits the data for this population. The sample included 2660 children and 1628 adolescents with SEND. Risk factors associated with increases in behaviour difficulties over an 18-month period were summed to create a cumulative risk score, with this explanatory variable being added into a multi-level model. A quadratic term was then added to test the threshold model. There was evidence of a cumulative risk effect, suggesting that exposure to higher numbers of risk factors, regardless of their exact nature, resulted in increased behaviour difficulties. The relationship between risk and behaviour difficulties was non-linear, with exposure to increasing risk having a disproportionate and detrimental impact on behaviour difficulties in child and adolescent models. Interventions aimed at reducing behaviour difficulties need to consider the impact of multiple risk variables. Tailoring interventions towards those exposed to large numbers of risks would be advantageous. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An inferential and descriptive statistical examination of the relationship between cumulative work metrics and injury in Major League Baseball pitchers.

Science.gov (United States)

Karakolis, Thomas; Bhan, Shivam; Crotin, Ryan L

2013-08-01

In Major League Baseball (MLB), games pitched, total innings pitched, total pitches thrown, innings pitched per game, and pitches thrown per game are used to measure cumulative work. Often, pitchers are allocated limits, based on pitches thrown per game and total innings pitched in a season, in an attempt to prevent future injuries. To date, the efficacy in predicting injuries from these cumulative work metrics remains in question. It was hypothesized that the cumulative work metrics would be a significant predictor for future injury in MLB pitchers. Correlations between cumulative work for pitchers during 2002-07 and injury days in the following seasons were examined using regression analyses to test this hypothesis. Each metric was then "binned" into smaller cohorts to examine trends in the associated risk of injury for each cohort. During the study time period, 27% of pitchers were injured after a season in which they pitched. Although some interesting trends were noticed during the binning process, based on the regression analyses, it was found that no cumulative work metric was a significant predictor for future injury. It was concluded that management of a pitcher's playing schedule based on these cumulative work metrics alone could not be an effective means of preventing injury. These findings indicate that an integrated approach to injury prevention is required. This approach will likely involve advanced cumulative work metrics and biomechanical assessment.

Secant cumulants and toric geometry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Michalek, M.; Oeding, L.; Zwiernik, P.W.

2012-01-01

We study the secant line variety of the Segre product of projective spaces using special cumulant coordinates adapted for secant varieties. We show that the secant variety is covered by open normal toric varieties. We prove that in cumulant coordinates its ideal is generated by binomial quadrics. We

Cumulative second-harmonic generation of Lamb waves propagating in a two-layered solid plate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiang Yanxun; Deng Mingxi

2008-01-01

The physical process of cumulative second-harmonic generation of Lamb waves propagating in a two-layered solid plate is presented by using the second-order perturbation and the technique of nonlinear reflection of acoustic waves at an interface. In general, the cumulative second-harmonic generation of a dispersive guided wave propagation does not occur. However, the present paper shows that the second-harmonic of Lamb wave propagation arising from the nonlinear interaction of the partial bulk acoustic waves and the restriction of the three boundaries of the solid plates does have a cumulative growth effect if some conditions are satisfied. Through boundary condition and initial condition of excitation, the analytical expression of cumulative second-harmonic of Lamb waves propagation is determined. Numerical results show the cumulative effect of Lamb waves on second-harmonic field patterns. (classical areas of phenomenology)

Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary, 2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, Gary E.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Borde, Amy B.; Bryson, Amanda J.; Cameron, April; Coleman, Andre M.; Corbett, C.; Dawley, Earl M.; Ebberts, Blaine D.; Kauffman, Ronald; Roegner, G. Curtis; Russell, Micah T.; Silva, April; Skalski, John R.; Thom, Ronald M.; Vavrinec, John; Woodruff, Dana L.; Zimmerman, Shon A.

2010-10-26

This is the sixth annual report of a seven-year project (2004 through 2010) to evaluate the cumulative effects of habitat restoration actions in the lower Columbia River and estuary (LCRE). The project, called the Cumulative Effects Study, is being conducted for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (USACE) by the Marine Sciences Laboratory of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), the Pt. Adams Biological Field Station of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), the Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce (CREST), and the University of Washington. The goal of the Cumulative Effects Study is to develop a methodology to evaluate the cumulative effects of multiple habitat restoration projects intended to benefit ecosystems supporting juvenile salmonids in the 235-km-long LCRE. Literature review in 2004 revealed no existing methods for such an evaluation and suggested that cumulative effects could be additive or synergistic. From 2005 through 2009, annual field research involved intensive, comparative studies paired by habitat type (tidal swamp versus marsh), trajectory (restoration versus reference site), and restoration action (tidegate replacement vs. culvert replacement vs. dike breach).

Cumulative Culture and Future Thinking: Is Mental Time Travel a Prerequisite to Cumulative Cultural Evolution?

Science.gov (United States)

Vale, G. L.; Flynn, E. G.; Kendal, R. L.

2012-01-01

Cumulative culture denotes the, arguably, human capacity to build on the cultural behaviors of one's predecessors, allowing increases in cultural complexity to occur such that many of our cultural artifacts, products and technologies have progressed beyond what a single individual could invent alone. This process of cumulative cultural evolution…

Order effect of strain applications in low-cycle cumulative fatigue at high temperatures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bui-Quoc, T.; Biron, A.

1977-01-01

Recent test results on cumulative damage with two strain levels on a stainless steel (AISI 304) at room temperature, 537 and 650 0 C show that the sum of cycle-ratios can be significantly smaller than unity for decreasing levels; the opposite has been noted for increasing levels. As a consequence, the use of the linear damage rule (Miner's law) for life predictions is not conservative in many cases. Since the double linear damage rule (DLDR), originally developed by Manson et al. for room temperature applications, takes the order effect of cyclic loading into consideration, an extension of this rule for high temperature cases may be a potentially useful tool. The present paper is concerned with such an extension. For cumulative damage tests with several levels, according to the DLDR, the summation is applied separately for crack initiation and crack propagation stages, and failure is then assumed to occur when the sum is equal to unity for both stages. Application of the DLDR consists in determining the crack propagation stage Nsub(p) associated with a particular number of cycles at failure N, i.e. Nsub(p)=PNsup(a) where exponent a and coefficient P had been assumed to be equal to 0.6 and 14 respectively for several materials at room temperature. When the DLDR is applied (with a=0.6 and P=14) to predict the remaining life at the second strain level (for two-level cumulative damage) for 304 stainless steel at room temperature 537 0 C and 650 0 C, the results show that the damage due to the first strain level is over-emphasized for decreasing levels when the damaging cycle-ratio is small. For increasing levels, the damage is underestimated and in some testing conditions this damage is simply ignored

Fuzzy set theory for cumulative trauma prediction

OpenAIRE

Fonseca, Daniel J.; Merritt, Thomas W.; Moynihan, Gary P.

2001-01-01

A widely used fuzzy reasoning algorithm was modified and implemented via an expert system to assess the potential risk of employee repetitive strain injury in the workplace. This fuzzy relational model, known as the Priority First Cover Algorithm (PFC), was adapted to describe the relationship between 12 cumulative trauma disorders (CTDs) of the upper extremity, and 29 identified risk factors. The algorithm, which finds a suboptimal subset from a group of variables based on the criterion of...

Severe occupational hand eczema, job stress and cumulative sickness absence.

Science.gov (United States)

Böhm, D; Stock Gissendanner, S; Finkeldey, F; John, S M; Werfel, T; Diepgen, T L; Breuer, K

2014-10-01

Stress is known to activate or exacerbate dermatoses, but the relationships between chronic stress, job-related stress and sickness absence among occupational hand eczema (OHE) patients are inadequately understood. To see whether chronic stress or burnout symptoms were associated with cumulative sickness absence in patients with OHE and to determine which factors predicted sickness absence in a model including measures of job-related and chronic stress. We investigated correlations of these factors in employed adult inpatients with a history of sickness absence due to OHE in a retrospective cross-sectional explorative study, which assessed chronic stress (Trier Inventory for the Assessment of Chronic Stress), burnout (Shirom Melamed Burnout Measure), clinical symptom severity (Osnabrück Hand Eczema Severity Index), perceived symptom severity, demographic characteristics and cumulative days of sickness absence. The study group consisted of 122 patients. OHE symptoms were not more severe among patients experiencing greater stress and burnout. Women reported higher levels of chronic stress on some measures. Cumulative days of sickness absence correlated with individual dimensions of job-related stress and, in multiple regression analysis, with an overall measure of chronic stress. Chronic stress is an additional factor predicting cumulative sickness absence among severely affected OHE patients. Other relevant factors for this study sample included the 'cognitive weariness' subscale of the Shirom Melamed Burnout Measure and the physical component summary score of the SF-36, a measure of health-related life quality. Prevention and rehabilitation should take job stress into consideration in multidisciplinary treatment strategies for severely affected OHE patients. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

System-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

Science.gov (United States)

Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

1989-01-01

Cumulative-binomial computer program, NEWTONP, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Program finds probability required to yield given system reliability. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

Higher order cumulants in colorless partonic plasma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cherif, S. [Sciences and Technologies Department, University of Ghardaia, Ghardaia, Algiers (Algeria); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M. A. A. [Department of Physics, College of Science, Taibah University Al-Madinah Al-Mounawwarah KSA (Saudi Arabia); Department of Physics, Taiz University in Turba, Taiz (Yemen); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria); Ladrem, M., E-mail: mladrem@yahoo.fr [Department of Physics, College of Science, Taibah University Al-Madinah Al-Mounawwarah KSA (Saudi Arabia); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria)

2016-06-10

Any physical system considered to study the QCD deconfinement phase transition certainly has a finite volume, so the finite size effects are inevitably present. This renders the location of the phase transition and the determination of its order as an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the colorless QCD deconfinement transition point in finite volume T{sub 0}(V), a new approach based on the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the ℒ{sub m,n}-Method is used. We have shown that both cumulants of higher order and their ratios, associated to the thermodynamical fluctuations of the order parameter, in QCD deconfinement phase transition behave in a particular enough way revealing pronounced oscillations in the transition region. The sign structure and the oscillatory behavior of these in the vicinity of the deconfinement phase transition point might be a sensitive probe and may allow one to elucidate their relation to the QCD phase transition point. In the context of our model, we have shown that the finite volume transition point is always associated to the appearance of a particular point in whole higher order cumulants under consideration.

Common-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

Science.gov (United States)

Scheuer, Ernest, M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

1989-01-01

Cumulative-binomial computer program, CROSSER, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), used independently of one another. Point of equality between reliability of system and common reliability of components found. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

Preserved cumulative semantic interference despite amnesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gary Michael Oppenheim

2015-05-01

As predicted by Oppenheim et al’s (2010 implicit incremental learning account, WRP’s BCN RTs demonstrated strong (and significant repetition priming and semantic blocking effects (Figure 1. Similar to typical results from neurally intact undergraduates, WRP took longer to name pictures presented in semantically homogeneous blocks than in heterogeneous blocks, an effect that increased with each cycle. This result challenges accounts that ascribe cumulative semantic interference in this task to explicit memory mechanisms, instead suggesting that the effect has the sort of implicit learning bases that are typically spared in hippocampal amnesia.

Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children’s learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission—the cornerstone of human cultural diversity. PMID:28739945

Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Legare, Cristine H

2017-07-24

The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children's learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission-the cornerstone of human cultural diversity.

Eating behavior in humans, characterized by cumulative food intake curves--a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Westerterp-Plantenga, M S

2000-03-01

Cumulative food intake curves have been obtained by monitoring eating from a plate, placed on a scale built into a table, and connected to a digital computer. They describe and integrate parameters of consumption of an ad lib single course meal, i.e. meal size, meal duration, eating rate, change in eating rate, bite size and bite frequency. It is concluded that they are an adequate tool for analyzing dietary and clinical interventions on meal size, because the cumulative food intake curve parameters: are stable and consistent within subjects; show a clear relationship with the subject characteristics dietary restraint and obesity; show a clear relationship with the physiological parameters satiation, diet-induced thermogenesis and body-temperature near the liver, and with the cognitive parameter: estimating forthcoming ingestion; are sensitive to instructions, clinical and dietary interventions (preloads, palatability, energy density, macronutrient composition), and to a state of negative energy balance. Because of possible compensatory post-prandial effects, it is suggested that assessment of meal size should be part of a 24 h appetite profile and food intake observation.

Cumulative and antagonistic effects of a mixture of the antiandrogens vinclozolin and iprodione in the pubertal male rat.

Science.gov (United States)

Blystone, Chad R; Lambright, Christy S; Cardon, Mary C; Furr, Johnathan; Rider, Cynthia V; Hartig, Phillip C; Wilson, Vickie S; Gray, Leon E

2009-09-01

Vinclozolin and iprodione are dicarboximide fungicides that display antiandrogenic effects in the male rat, which suggests that a mixture would lead to cumulative effects on androgen-sensitive end points. Iprodione is a steroid synthesis inhibitor, but androgen receptor antagonist activity, which is displayed by vinclozolin, has not been fully evaluated. Here, we demonstrate that iprodione binds to the human androgen receptor (IC(50) = 86.0 microM), reduces androgen-dependent gene expression, and reduces androgen-sensitive tissue weights in castrated male rats (Hershberger assay). Since vinclozolin and iprodione affect common targets in the pubertal male rat, we tested the hypothesis that a mixture would have cumulative antiandrogenic effects. An iprodione dose, that does not significantly affect androgen-dependent morphological end points, was combined with vinclozolin doses (2 x 5 factorial design). Sprague-Dawley rats were dosed by gavage with vinclozolin at 0, 10, 30, 60, and 100 mg/kg/day with and without 50 mg iprodione/kg/day from postnatal day (PND) 23 to 55-57 (n = 8 per group). The age at puberty (preputial separation [PPS]), organ weights, serum hormones, and ex vivo testis steroid hormone production were measured. Vinclozolin delayed PPS, reduced androgen-sensitive organ weights, and increased serum testosterone. The addition of iprodione enhanced the vinclozolin inhibition of PPS (PND 47.5 vs.49.1; two-way ANOVA: iprodione main effect p = 0.0002). The dose response for several reproductive and nonreproductive organ weights was affected in a cumulative manner. In contrast, iprodione antagonized the vinclozolin-induced increase in serum testosterone. These results demonstrate that these fungicides interact on common targets in a tissue-specific manner when coadministered to the pubertal male rat.

Breakdown and assessment of cumulative exergy losses for a turbojet over a flight

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosen, M. [Univ. of Ontario Inst. of Technology, Oshawa, ON (Canada). Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science

2007-07-01

This paper presented an exergy analysis conducted to evaluate the contribution of exhaust emissions from the engine of a turbojet to the craft's total exergy losses. The aim of the study was to understand the most significant exergy losses in aerospace engines in order to increase energy efficiency. The analysis was also conducted to further break down components of the exhaust's emissions as well as to assess the sensitivity of the results in relation to their reference environment. The exergy analysis formed part of a series of analyses conducted on a turbojet over a complete flight. Results of the study demonstrated that the use of a constant reference environment resulted in errors as high as 52 per cent when compared with results obtained using a reference environment that changed at the same time as the operating environment. The error was dependent on the distance flow. When the constant reference environment was set at the cruising altitude, the error was reduced as the flight distance increased. It was concluded that any constant reference environment produced false trends when cumulative exergy losses were examined over a flight cycle. 19 refs., 5 figs.

Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

1989-01-01

Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Seshadri, Ashwin K.

2017-11-01

Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

Cumulative Effect of Obesogenic Behaviours on Adiposity in Spanish Children and Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Schröder, Helmut; Bawaked, Rowaedh Ahmed; Ribas-Barba, Lourdes; Izquierdo-Pulido, Maria; Roman-Viñas, Blanca; Fíto, Montserrat; Serra-Majem, Lluis

2018-01-01

Objective Little is known about the cumulative effect of obesogenic behaviours on childhood obesity risk. We determined the cumulative effect on BMI z-score, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), overweight and abdominal obesity of four lifestyle behaviours that have been linked to obesity. Methods In this cross-sectional analysis, data were obtained from the EnKid sudy, a representative sample of Spanish youth. The study included 1,614 boys and girls aged 5-18 years. Weight, height and waist circumference were measured. Physical activity (PA), screen time, breakfast consumption and meal frequency were self-reported on structured questionnaires. Obesogenic behaviours were defined as 1 SD from the mean of the WHO reference population. Abdominal obesity was defined as a WHtR ≥ 0.5. Results High screen time was the most prominent obesogenic behaviour (49.7%), followed by low physical activity (22.4%), low meal frequency (14.4%), and skipping breakfast (12.5%). Although 33% of participants were free of all 4 obesogenic behaviours, 1, 2, and 3 or 4 behaviours were reported by 44.5%, 19.3%, and 5.0%, respectively. BMI z-score and WHtR were positively associated (p < 0.001) with increasing numbers of concurrent obesogenic behaviours. The odds of presenting with obesogenic behaviours were significantly higher in children who were overweight (OR 2.68; 95% CI 1.50; 4.80) or had abdominal obesity (OR 2.12; 95% CI 1.28; 3.52); they reported more than 2 obesogenic behaviours. High maternal and parental education was inversely associated (p = 0.004 and p < 0.001, respectively) with increasing presence of obesogenic behaviours. Surrogate markers of adiposity increased with numbers of concurrent presence of obesogenic behaviours. The opposite was true for high maternal and paternal education. PMID:29207394

The effects of cumulative risks and promotive factors on urban adolescent alcohol and other drug use: a longitudinal study of resiliency.

Science.gov (United States)

Ostaszewski, Krzysztof; Zimmerman, Marc A

2006-12-01

Resiliency theory provides a conceptual framework for studying why some youth exposed to risk factors do not develop the negative behaviors they predict. The purpose of this study was to test compensatory and protective models of resiliency in a longitudinal sample of urban adolescents (80% African American). The data were from Years 1 (9th grade) and 4 (12th grade). The study examined effects of cumulative risk and promotive factors on adolescent polydrug use including alcohol, tobacco and marijuana. Cumulative measures of risk/promotive factors represented individual characteristics, peer influence, and parental/familial influences. After controlling for demographics, results of multiple regression of polydrug use support the compensatory model of resiliency both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Promotive factors were also found to have compensatory effects on change in adolescent polydrug use. The protective model of resiliency evidenced cross-sectionally was not supported in longitudinal analysis. The findings support resiliency theory and the use of cumulative risk/promotive measures in resiliency research. Implications focused on utilizing multiple assets and resources in prevention programming are discussed.

Lower cumulative stress is associated with better health for physically active adults in the community

Science.gov (United States)

Stults-Kolehmainen, Matthew A.; Tuit, Keri; Sinha, Rajita

2015-01-01

Both cumulative adversity, an individual's lifetime exposure to stressors, and insufficient exercise are associated with poor health outcomes. The purpose of this study was to ascertain whether exercise buffers the association of cumulative adverse life events (CALE) with health in a community-wide sample of healthy adults (ages 18–50 years; women: n 219, 29.5 ± 9.2 years; men: n = 176, 29.4 ± 8.7 years, mean ± standard deviation). Participants underwent the Cumulative Adversity Interview, which divides life events into three subsets: major life events (MLE), recent life events (RLE) and traumatic experiences (TLE). These individuals also completed the Cornell Medical Index and a short assessment for moderate or greater intensity exercise behavior, modified from the Nurses’ Health Study. Results indicated that higher CALE was associated with greater total health problems (r = 0.431, pstress and exercise were not apparent for RLE and TLE. However, at low levels of MLE, greater exercise was related to fewer total, physical, cardiovascular and psychological health problems (p valuestress. Increased levels of exercise were related to better physical health in men, at all levels of CALE. Only women who reported both low levels of CALE and high levels of exercise had more favorable physical health outcomes. A similar pattern of results emerged for RLE. Together, these data suggest that increased exercise is related to better health, but these effects may vary by cumulative stress exposure and sex. PMID:24392966

An analysis of cumulative risks based on biomonitoring data for six phthalates using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

Science.gov (United States)

The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single chemical drives the cumulative risk of an individual exposed to multiple chemicals. Phthalates are a class of chemicals with ubiquitous exposures in the general population that have the potential to cause ...

Cumulative trauma and current posttraumatic stress disorder status in general population and inmate samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Briere, John; Agee, Elisha; Dietrich, Anne

2016-07-01

This research was undertaken to examine the role between cumulative exposure to different types of traumatic events and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) status in general population and prison samples. Two archival datasets were examined: the standardization sample for the Detailed Assessment of Posttraumatic States (DAPS; Briere, 2001), and data from a study on trauma and posttraumatic sequelae among inmates and others. PTSD was found in 4% of the general population sample and 48% of the prison sample. Trauma exposure was very common among prisoners, including a 70% rate of childhood sexual abuse for women and a 50% rate for men. Lifetime number of different types of trauma was associated with PTSD in both the general population and prison samples, even when controlling for the effects of sexual trauma. Cumulative interpersonal trauma predicted PTSD, whereas cumulative noninterpersonal trauma did not. In the general population sample, participants who had only 1 type of trauma exposure had a 0% likelihood of current PTSD, whereas those with 6 or more other trauma types had a 12% likelihood. In the prison sample, those with only 1 type of trauma exposure had a 17% percent likelihood of current PTSD, whereas those exposed to 6 or more other trauma types had a 64% chance of PTSD. Cumulative trauma predicts current PTSD in both general population and prison samples, even after controlling for sexual trauma. PTSD appears to develop generally as a function of exposure to multiple types of interpersonal trauma, as opposed to a single traumatic event. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Cumulative burden of lifetime adversities: Trauma and mental health in low-SES African Americans and Latino/as.

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, Hector F; Wyatt, Gail E; Ullman, Jodie B; Loeb, Tamra B; Chin, Dorothy; Prause, Nicole; Zhang, Muyu; Williams, John K; Slavich, George M; Liu, Honghu

2015-05-01

This study examined the utility of a lifetime cumulative adversities and trauma model in predicting the severity of mental health symptoms of depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress disorder. We also tested whether ethnicity and gender moderate the effects of this stress exposure construct on mental health using multigroup structural equation modeling. A sample of 500 low-socioeconomic status African American and Latino men and women with histories of adversities and trauma were recruited and assessed with a standard battery of self-report measures of stress and mental health. Multiple-group structural equation models indicated good overall model fit. As hypothesized, experiences of discrimination, childhood family adversities, childhood sexual abuse, other childhood trauma, and chronic stresses all loaded on the latent cumulative burden of adversities and trauma construct (CBAT). The CBAT stress exposure index in turn predicted the mental health status latent variable. Although there were several significant univariate ethnic and gender differences, and ethnic and gender differences were observed on several paths, there were no significant ethnic differences in the final model fit of the data. These findings highlight the deleterious consequences of cumulative stress and trauma for mental health and underscore a need to assess these constructs in selecting appropriate clinical interventions for reducing mental health disparities and improving human health. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Anti-irritants II: Efficacy against cumulative irritation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Flemming; Hedegaard, Kathryn; Petersen, Thomas Kongstad

2006-01-01

window of opportunity in which to demonstrate efficacy. Therefore, the effect of AI was studied in a cumulative irritation model by inducing irritant dermatitis with 10 min daily exposures for 5+4 days (no irritation on weekend) to 1% sodium lauryl sulfate on the right and 20% nonanoic acid on the left...

[Analgesic quality in a postoperative pain service: continuous assessment with the cumulative sum (cusum) method].

Science.gov (United States)

Baptista Macaroff, W M; Castroman Espasandín, P

2007-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the cumulative sum (cusum) method for evaluating the performance of our hospital's acute postoperative pain service. The period of analysis was 7 months. Analgesic failure was defined as a score of 3 points or more on a simple numerical scale. Acceptable failure (p0) was set at 20% of patients upon admission to the postanesthetic recovery unit and at 7% 24 hours after surgery. Unacceptable failure was set at double the p0 rate at each time (40% and 14%, respectively). The unit's patient records were used to generate a cusum graph for each evaluation. Nine hundred four records were included. The rate of failure was 31.6% upon admission to the unit and 12.1% at the 24-hour postoperative assessment. The curve rose rapidly to the value set for p0 at both evaluation times (n = 14 and n = 17, respectively), later leveled off, and began to fall after 721 and 521 cases, respectively. Our study shows the efficacy of the cusum method for monitoring a proposed quality standard. The graph also showed periods of suboptimal performance that would not have been evident from analyzing the data en block. Thus the cusum method would facilitate rapid detection of periods in which quality declines.

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.

1996-03-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , S st , p st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , S su , p su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , S st , p st ) and (S su , S su , p su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.

1996-01-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S st , L st , P st ) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S su , L su , P su ) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S st , L st , P st ) and (S su , L su , P su ). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems

[Assessment on the ecological suitability in Zhuhai City, Guangdong, China, based on minimum cumulative resistance model].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jian-fei; Li, Lin; Guo, Luo; Du, Shi-hong

2016-01-01

Urban landscape has the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity. Because the expansion process of urban constructive or ecological land has different resistance values, the land unit stimulates and promotes the expansion of ecological land with different intensity. To compare the effect of promoting and hindering functions in the same land unit, we firstly compared the minimum cumulative resistance value of promoting and hindering functions, and then looked for the balance of two landscape processes under the same standard. According to the ecology principle of minimum limit factor, taking the minimum cumulative resistance analysis method under two expansion processes as the evaluation method of urban land ecological suitability, this research took Zhuhai City as the study area to estimate urban ecological suitability by relative evaluation method with remote sensing image, field survey, and statistics data. With the support of ArcGIS, five types of indicators on landscape types, ecological value, soil erosion sensitivity, sensitivity of geological disasters, and ecological function were selected as input parameters in the minimum cumulative resistance model to compute urban ecological suitability. The results showed that the ecological suitability of the whole Zhuhai City was divided into five levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (10.1%), constructive expansion restricted zone (32.9%), key construction zone (36.3%), priority development zone (2.3%), and basic cropland (18.4%). Ecological suitability of the central area of Zhuhai City was divided into four levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (11.6%), constructive expansion restricted zone (25.6%), key construction zone (52.4%), priority development zone (10.4%). Finally, we put forward the sustainable development framework of Zhuhai City according to the research conclusion. On one hand, the government should strictly control the development of the urban center area. On the other hand, the

Estimating the cumulative effects of the nature-based tourism in a coastal dolphin population from southern Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Jorge, Sergi; Louzao, Maite; Oro, Daniel; Pereira, Thalia; Corne, Chloe; Wijtten, Zeno; Gomes, Inês; Wambua, John; Christiansen, Fredrik

2017-06-01

Due to the growth of nature-based tourism worldwide, behavioural studies are needed to assess the impact of this industry on wildlife populations and understand their short-term effect. Tourism impact on dolphin populations remain poorly documented in developing countries. This study investigates the effects of nature-based tourism on the behaviour of the Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) in southern Kenya. We used Markov chain models to estimate transition probabilities between behavioural states in the presence and absence of tourist boats, and assess the overall behavioural budgets. Based on these data and the tourism intensity in the area, we quantified the potential tourist boat disturbance over the period 2006-2013. Our results demonstrated that tourist boat interactions affected dolphins' behavioural budgets, with a significant decrease in the overall amount of time travelling and an increase in diving. The average duration of travelling and resting decreased significantly in the presence of boats. Although the cumulative tourism exposure was not significant for the dolphin population at their current levels, these impacts should be taken into consideration with the potential tourism growth in the area. This is particularly important if tourism reaches periods of high intensity, as we have shown that these periods could have a significant impact for the species, particularly where home-range and core areas are highly overlap by this activity. Understanding the effect of human disturbance variations from previous years may help to predict the consequences on dolphin populations, towards achieving a more ecological and economic sustainability of the activity.

Cumulants of heat transfer across nonlinear quantum systems

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Huanan; Agarwalla, Bijay Kumar; Li, Baowen; Wang, Jian-Sheng

2013-12-01

We consider thermal conduction across a general nonlinear phononic junction. Based on two-time observation protocol and the nonequilibrium Green's function method, heat transfer in steady-state regimes is studied, and practical formulas for the calculation of the cumulant generating function are obtained. As an application, the general formalism is used to study anharmonic effects on fluctuation of steady-state heat transfer across a single-site junction with a quartic nonlinear on-site pinning potential. An explicit nonlinear modification to the cumulant generating function exact up to the first order is given, in which the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation symmetry is found still valid. Numerically a self-consistent procedure is introduced, which works well for strong nonlinearity.

Cumulative trauma, gender discrimination and mental health in women: mediating role of self-esteem.

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Kucharska, Justyna

2017-12-20

Evidence suggests that women show symptoms of trauma-related symptoms more often than men. Gender discrimination is also associated with the severity of symptoms in women. This study explored the relations among cumulative trauma, gender discrimination and mental health in women with a mediating role of self-esteem and emotion regulation. Two types of gender discrimination were taken into account: discrimination by parents and in the social context. Cumulative trauma over the lifetime was assessed, as well as three types of symptoms: internalising, externalising, psychoticism. A total of 277 females from Poland participated in the study. It was hypothesised that gender discrimination and cumulative trauma would be positively related to symptoms and that lowered self-esteem mediates these relations. Hypotheses received partial confirmation, as both gender discrimination and cumulative trauma have been shown to be related to three types of symptoms. Self-esteem was a partial mediator between gender discrimination in the social context and symptoms. It was also demonstrated that emotion suppression is a partial mediator between cumulative trauma and symptoms. It has been demonstrated that socio-cultural factors, such as gender discrimination, play an important role in psychiatric symptoms development.

An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

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The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

Temperature-related mortality estimates after accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollution in an urban area.

Science.gov (United States)

Stanišić Stojić, Svetlana; Stanišić, Nemanja; Stojić, Andreja

2016-07-11

To propose a new method for including the cumulative mid-term effects of air pollution in the traditional Poisson regression model and compare the temperature-related mortality risk estimates, before and after including air pollution data. The analysis comprised a total of 56,920 residents aged 65 years or older who died from circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade, Serbia, and daily mean PM10, NO2, SO2 and soot concentrations obtained for the period 2009-2014. After accounting for the cumulative effects of air pollutants, the risk associated with cold temperatures was significantly lower and the overall temperature-attributable risk decreased from 8.80 to 3.00 %. Furthermore, the optimum range of temperature, within which no excess temperature-related mortality is expected to occur, was very broad, between -5 and 21 °C, which differs from the previous findings that most of the attributable deaths were associated with mild temperatures. These results suggest that, in polluted areas of developing countries, most of the mortality risk, previously attributed to cold temperatures, can be explained by the mid-term effects of air pollution. The results also showed that the estimated relative importance of PM10 was the smallest of four examined pollutant species, and thus, including PM10 data only is clearly not the most effective way to control for the effects of air pollution.

Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets

Science.gov (United States)

Damon Matthews, H.; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Knutti, Reto; Allen, Myles R.

2018-01-01

The Environmental Research Letters focus issue on ‘Cumulative Emissions, Global Carbon Budgets and the Implications for Climate Mitigation Targets’ was launched in 2015 to highlight the emerging science of the climate response to cumulative emissions, and how this can inform efforts to decrease emissions fast enough to avoid dangerous climate impacts. The 22 research articles published represent a fantastic snapshot of the state-or-the-art in this field, covering both the science and policy aspects of cumulative emissions and carbon budget research. In this Review and Synthesis, we summarize the findings published in this focus issue, outline some suggestions for ongoing research needs, and present our assessment of the implications of this research for ongoing efforts to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

Language production in a shared task: Cumulative semantic interference from self- and other-produced context words

OpenAIRE

Hoedemaker, R.; Ernst, J.; Meyer, A.; Belke, E.

2017-01-01

This study assessed the effects of semantic context in the form of self-produced and other-produced words on subsequent language production. Pairs of participants performed a joint picture naming task, taking turns while naming a continuous series of pictures. In the single-speaker version of this paradigm, naming latencies have been found to increase for successive presentations of exemplars from the same category, a phenomenon known as Cumulative Semantic Interference (CSI). As expected, th...

Shale Gas Development and Brook Trout: Scaling Best Management Practices to Anticipate Cumulative Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, David; Snyder, Craig D.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Young, John A.; Faulkner, Stephen P.

2012-01-01

Shale gas development may involve trade-offs between energy development and benefits provided by natural ecosystems. However, current best management practices (BMPs) focus on mitigating localized ecological degradation. We review evidence for cumulative effects of natural gas development on brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and conclude that BMPs should account for potential watershed-scale effects in addition to localized influences. The challenge is to develop BMPs in the face of uncertainty in the predicted response of brook trout to landscape-scale disturbance caused by gas extraction. We propose a decision-analysis approach to formulating BMPs in the specific case of relatively undisturbed watersheds where there is consensus to maintain brook trout populations during gas development. The decision analysis was informed by existing empirical models that describe brook trout occupancy responses to landscape disturbance and set bounds on the uncertainty in the predicted responses to shale gas development. The decision analysis showed that a high efficiency of gas development (e.g., 1 well pad per square mile and 7 acres per pad) was critical to achieving a win-win solution characterized by maintaining brook trout and maximizing extraction of available gas. This finding was invariant to uncertainty in predicted response of brook trout to watershed-level disturbance. However, as the efficiency of gas development decreased, the optimal BMP depended on the predicted response, and there was considerable potential value in discriminating among predictive models through adaptive management or research. The proposed decision-analysis framework provides an opportunity to anticipate the cumulative effects of shale gas development, account for uncertainty, and inform management decisions at the appropriate spatial scales.

Practical management of cumulative anthropogenic impacts with working marine examples

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kyhn, Line Anker; Wright, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

for petroleum. Human disturbances, including the noise almost ubiquitously associated with human activity, are likely to increase the incidence, magnitude, and duration of adverse effects on marine life, including stress responses. Stress responses have the potential to induce fitness consequences...... on impact can be facilitated through implementation of regular application cycles for project authorization or improved programmatic and aggregated impact assessments that simultaneously consider multiple projects. Cross-company collaborations and a better incorporation of uncertainty into decision making...... could also help limit, if not reduce, cumulative impacts of multiple human activities. These simple management steps may also form the basis of a rudimentary form of marine spatial planning and could be used in support of future ecosystem-based management efforts....

A case study to illustrate the utility of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks for integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which evaluate the risk of multiple adverse outcomes (AOs) from multiple chemicals, promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to integrate risk from relevant stressors. The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework can inform these r...

The association between high levels of cumulative life stress and aberrant resting state EEG dynamics in old age.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Amanda C; Cooper, Nicholas R

2017-07-01

Cumulative experienced stress produces shortcomings in old adults' cognitive performance. These are reflected in electrophysiological changes tied to task execution. This study explored whether stress-related aberrations in older adults' electroencephalographic (EEG) activity were also apparent in the system at rest. To this effect, the amount of stressful life events experienced by 60 young and 60 elderly participants were assessed in conjunction with resting state power changes in the delta, theta, alpha, and beta frequencies during a resting EEG recording. Findings revealed elevated levels of delta power among elderly individuals reporting high levels of cumulative life stress. These differed significantly from young high and low stress individuals and old adults with low levels of stress. Increases of delta activity have been linked to the emergence of conditions such as Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment. Thus, a potential interpretation of our findings associates large amounts of cumulative stress with an increased risk of developing age-related cognitive pathologies in later life. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Cumulative Family Risk Factors on American Students' Academic Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Dunst, Carl J.; Hamby, Deborah W.

2016-01-01

The relationships between cumulative family risk factors and American students' academic performance were examined in all 50 States and the District of Columbia. Data from the 2007 "American Community Survey" were used to ascertain the percent of birth to 18 year old children in the United States who experienced three or more risk…

Direct releases to the surface and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: direct brine release

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoelzel, D.M.; O'Brien, D.G.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Smith, L.N.

2000-01-01

The following topics related to the treatment of direct brine releases to the surface environment in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented: (i) mathematical description of models; (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e. epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases; (iii) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e. aleatory) uncertainty; and (iv) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for CCDFs. The presented analyses indicate that direct brine releases do not constitute a serious threat to the effectiveness of the WIPP as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, the CCDFs for direct brine releases fall substantially to the left of the boundary line specified in the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194)

Comparison of the immediate, residual, and cumulative antibacterial effects of Novaderm R,* Novascrub R,* Betadine Surgical Scrub, Hibiclens, and liquid soap.

Science.gov (United States)

Faoagali, J; Fong, J; George, N; Mahoney, P; O'Rourke, V

1995-12-01

Triclosan (Irgasan), an antibacterial active against staphylococci and coliform bacteria, has been formulated for use as a handwash. There has been only one previous report of the use of the glove juice test to determine the immediate, residual, and cumulative effects of a 1% triclosan-based handwash product. There have been no previous studies on the use of 1% triclosan combined with povidone-iodine (PI) in a handwash product. The glove juice technique was used to document and compare the immediate, 3-hour residual, and 5-day cumulative effects on the mean log10 bacterial counts of 1% triclosan-based handwash product and 1% triclosan with 5% PI. A standardized surgical handwashing technique was used before sample collection. These results and the identity and type of the aerobic bacteria cultured from the samples were compared with the results of standardized washing and glove juice sampling with 4% weight/volume chlorhexidine gluconate (CHG), 7.5% PI, and a nonantimicrobial liquid soap. All five tested products showed significant log10 reduction from baseline on day 1, hour 0 (p 0.05). There was a significant difference between 1% triclosan and the liquid soap when they were each compared with 4% CHG, 7.5% PI, and 1% triclosan with 5% PI. There was no statistically significant difference between the 1% triclosan product and the liquid soap (p > 0.20). All products were effective at reducing the immediate bacterial count from the baseline level. All formulations except the liquid soap showed significant cumulative effect (p liquid soap and 1% triclosan (p > 0.05). Both products differed significantly (p < 0.05) from the CHG, PI, and triclosan with PI. CHG, PI, and triclosan with PI showed effects significantly different from each other (p < 0.05). Triclosan combined with PI resulted in the prevention of bacterial regrowth at 3 hours such as occurred when PI alone was used. Triclosan-containing products have a small cumulative effect, although not as great as that

El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dugand Armando

1944-03-01

Full Text Available Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin duda alguna al A. Dugandii StandI. Por otra parte, Santiago Cortés (FI. Colomb. 206. 1898; ed, 2: 239. 1912 cita el Cumulá "de Anapoima y otros lugares del (rio Magdalena" diciendo que pertenece a las Leguminosas, pero la brevísima descripción que este autor hace de la madera "naranjada y notable por densidad, dureza y resistencia a la humedad", me induce a creer que se trata del mismo Cumula coleccionado recientemente en Tocaima, ya que esta población esta situada a pocos kilómetros de Anapoima. Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin

Kindergarten stressors and cumulative adrenocortical activation: the "first straws" of allostatic load?

Science.gov (United States)

Bush, Nicole R; Obradović, Jelena; Adler, Nancy; Boyce, W Thomas

2011-11-01

Using an ethnically diverse longitudinal sample of 338 kindergarten children, this study examined the effects of cumulative contextual stressors on children's developing hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis regulation as an early life indicator of allostatic load. Chronic HPA axis regulation was assessed using cumulative, multiday measures of cortisol in both the fall and spring seasons of the kindergarten year. Hierarchical linear regression analyses revealed that contextual stressors related to ethnic minority status, socioeconomic status, and family adversity each uniquely predicted children's daily HPA activity and that some of those associations were curvilinear in conformation. Results showed that the quadratic, U-shaped influences of family socioeconomic status and family adversity operate in different directions to predict children's HPA axis regulation. Results further suggested that these associations differ for White and ethnic minority children. In total, this study revealed that early childhood experiences contribute to shifts in one of the principal neurobiological systems thought to generate allostatic load, confirming the importance of early prevention and intervention efforts. Moreover, findings suggested that analyses of allostatic load and developmental theories accounting for its accrual would benefit from an inclusion of curvilinear associations in tested predictive models.

Accumulative effects of regulatory actions. Exercise of analysis of CER, consideration of the cumulative Effects of regulation in the rulemaking process in Spanish NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez Ayestaran, P.; Castella, L.

2014-01-01

Through its interaction with the American industry, the NRC has been aware for a number of years of the concern about the impact of the accumulative effect of some regulatory actions. In response to this concern, which was highlighted by the industry, the NRC has carried out initiative to review a number of regulatory requirements order to ensure that NRC regulation and practices dno not lead to an unnecessary regulatory load. The foregoing was in response to what has become commonly known as the CER. Cumulative Effects of Regulation in the Rulemaking Process. In view of the regulatory actuation by the Spanish Nuclear Safety Council (CSN) and, in particular after the events which occurred in Japan, a pilot study has been carried out to examine the CER on a Spanish plant in order to analyse the cumulative effects of regulation and to propose improvements to the management of regulation in line with that set our by the NRC in various documents (SECY-02-081, SECY-11-0032 among others). (Authors)

Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability by Direct Binomial Regression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard......Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard...

7 CFR 42.132 - Determining cumulative sum values.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Determining cumulative sum values. 42.132 Section 42... Determining cumulative sum values. (a) The parameters for the on-line cumulative sum sampling plans for AQL's... 3 1 2.5 3 1 2 1 (b) At the beginning of the basic inspection period, the CuSum value is set equal to...

The Algebra of the Cumulative Percent Operation.

Science.gov (United States)

Berry, Andrew J.

2002-01-01

Discusses how to help students avoid some pervasive reasoning errors in solving cumulative percent problems. Discusses the meaning of ."%+b%." the additive inverse of ."%." and other useful applications. Emphasizes the operational aspect of the cumulative percent concept. (KHR)

Finite-volume cumulant expansion in QCD-colorless plasma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ladrem, M. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Physics Department, Algiers (Algeria); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M.A.A. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Taiz University in Turba, Physics Department, Taiz (Yemen); Alfull, Z.Z. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Cherif, S. [ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ghardaia University, Sciences and Technologies Department, Ghardaia (Algeria)

2015-09-15

Due to the finite-size effects, the localization of the phase transition in finite systems and the determination of its order, become an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the finite-volume transition point T{sub 0}(V) of the QCD deconfinement phase transition to a colorless QGP, we have developed a new approach using the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the L{sub mn}-method. The first six cumulants C{sub 1,2,3,4,5,6} with the corresponding under-normalized ratios (skewness Σ, kurtosis κ, pentosis Π{sub ±}, and hexosis H{sub 1,2,3}) and three unnormalized combinations of them, (O = σ{sup 2}κΣ{sup -1},U = σ{sup -2}Σ{sup -1},N = σ{sup 2}κ) are calculated and studied as functions of (T, V). A new approach, unifying in a clear and consistent way the definitions of cumulant ratios, is proposed.Anumerical FSS analysis of the obtained results has allowed us to locate accurately the finite-volume transition point. The extracted transition temperature value T{sub 0}(V) agrees with that expected T{sub 0}{sup N}(V) from the order parameter and the thermal susceptibility χ{sub T} (T, V), according to the standard procedure of localization to within about 2%. In addition to this, a very good correlation factor is obtained proving the validity of our cumulants method. The agreement of our results with those obtained by means of other models is remarkable. (orig.)

Cumulative Risk and Impact Modeling on Environmental Chemical and Social Stressors.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Hongtai; Wang, Aolin; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Lam, Juleen; Sirota, Marina; Padula, Amy; Woodruff, Tracey J

2018-03-01

The goal of this review is to identify cumulative modeling methods used to evaluate combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors. The specific review question is: What are the existing quantitative methods used to examine the cumulative impacts of exposures to environmental chemical and social stressors on health? There has been an increase in literature that evaluates combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors on health using regression models; very few studies applied other data mining and machine learning techniques to this problem. The majority of studies we identified used regression models to evaluate combined effects of multiple environmental and social stressors. With proper study design and appropriate modeling assumptions, additional data mining methods may be useful to examine combined effects of environmental and social stressors.

Childhood cumulative risk and obesity: the mediating role of self-regulatory ability.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Gary W; Fuller-Rowell, Thomas E; Doan, Stacey N

2012-01-01

We tested whether early childhood risk exposures are related to weight gain in adolescence and evaluate an underlying mechanism, self-regulatory behavior, for the risk-obesity link. Cumulative risk exposure to 9 sociodemographic (eg, poverty), physical (eg, substandard housing), and psychosocial (eg, family turmoil) stressors was assessed in 244 nine-year-old children. BMI was calculated at age 9 and then 4 years later. At age 9, children's ability to delay gratification as an index of self-regulatory behavior was assessed. Path analyses were then estimated to evaluate our mediational model (Cumulative risk → Self-regulation → BMI) over a 4-year period in a prospective, longitudinal design. Nine-year-old children exposed to a greater accumulation of multiple risk factors show larger gains in adiposity over the next four year period, net of their initial BMI. These gains in BMI during early adolescence are largely accounted for by deteriorated self-regulatory abilities among children facing more cumulative risks. Early childhood risk exposure leads to larger gains in BMI in adolescence. Given the importance of childhood adiposity to the development of obesity later in life, understanding the underlying mechanisms that link early experience to weight gain is an essential task. Deficiencies in self-regulation in response to chronic stress appears to be an important agent in the obesity epidemic.

Cumulative Effects of Foraging Behavior and Social Dominance on Brain Development in a Facultatively Social Bee (Ceratina australensis).

Science.gov (United States)

Rehan, Sandra M; Bulova, Susan J; O'Donnell, Sean

2015-01-01

In social insects, both task performance (foraging) and dominance are associated with increased brain investment, particularly in the mushroom bodies. Whether and how these factors interact is unknown. Here we present data on a system where task performance and social behavior can be analyzed simultaneously: the small carpenter bee Ceratina australensis. We show that foraging and dominance have separate and combined cumulative effects on mushroom body calyx investment. Female C. australensis nest solitarily and socially in the same populations at the same time. Social colonies comprise two sisters: the social primary, which monopolizes foraging and reproduction, and the social secondary, which is neither a forager nor reproductive but rather remains at the nest as a guard. We compare the brains of solitary females that forage and reproduce but do not engage in social interactions with those of social individuals while controlling for age, reproductive status, and foraging experience. Mushroom body calyx volume was positively correlated with wing wear, a proxy for foraging experience. We also found that, although total brain volume did not vary among reproductive strategies (solitary vs. social nesters), socially dominant primaries had larger mushroom body calyx volumes (corrected for both brain and body size variation) than solitary females; socially subordinate secondaries (that are neither dominant nor foragers) had the least-developed mushroom body calyces. These data demonstrate that sociality itself does not explain mushroom body volume; however, achieving and maintaining dominance status in a group was associated with mushroom body calyx enlargement. Dominance and foraging effects were cumulative; dominant social primary foragers had larger mushroom body volumes than solitary foragers, and solitary foragers had larger mushroom body volumes than nonforaging social secondary guards. This is the first evidence for cumulative effects on brain development by

Psychometric properties of the Cumulated Ambulation Score

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ferriero, Giorgio; Kristensen, Morten T; Invernizzi, Marco

2018-01-01

INTRODUCTION: In the geriatric population, independent mobility is a key factor in determining readiness for discharge following acute hospitalization. The Cumulated Ambulation Score (CAS) is a potentially valuable score that allows day-to-day measurements of basic mobility. The CAS was developed...... and validated in older patients with hip fracture as an early postoperative predictor of short-term outcome, but it is also used to assess geriatric in-patients with acute medical illness. Despite the fast- accumulating literature on the CAS, to date no systematic review synthesizing its psychometric properties....... Of 49 studies identified, 17 examined the psychometric properties of the CAS. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Most papers dealt with patients after hip fracture surgery, and only 4 studies assessed the CAS psychometric characteristics also in geriatric in-patients with acute medical illness. Two versions of CAS...

Cumulative Effect of Obesogenic Behaviours on Adiposity in Spanish Children and Adolescents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helmut Schröder

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Objective: Little is known about the cumulative effect of obesogenic behaviours on childhood obesity risk. We determined the cumulative effect on BMI z-score, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR, overweight and abdominal obesity of four lifestyle behaviours that have been linked to obesity. Methods: In this cross-sectional analysis, data were obtained from the EnKid sudy, a representative sample of Spanish youth. The study included 1,614 boys and girls aged 5-18 years. Weight, height and waist circumference were measured. Physical activity (PA, screen time, breakfast consumption and meal frequency were self-reported on structured questionnaires. Obesogenic behaviours were defined as z-score was computed using age- and sex-specific reference values from the World Health Organization (WHO. Overweight including obesity was defined as a BMI > 1 SD from the mean of the WHO reference population. Abdominal obesity was defined as a WHtR ≥ 0.5. Results: High screen time was the most prominent obesogenic behaviour (49.7%, followed by low physical activity (22.4%, low meal frequency (14.4%, and skipping breakfast (12.5%. Although 33% of participants were free of all 4 obesogenic behaviours, 1, 2, and 3 or 4 behaviours were reported by 44.5%, 19.3%, and 5.0%, respectively. BMI z-score and WHtR were positively associated (p < 0.001 with increasing numbers of concurrent obesogenic behaviours. The odds of presenting with obesogenic behaviours were significantly higher in children who were overweight (OR 2.68; 95% CI 1.50; 4.80 or had abdominal obesity (OR 2.12; 95% CI 1.28; 3.52; they reported more than 2 obesogenic behaviours. High maternal and parental education was inversely associated (p = 0.004 and p < 0.001, respectively with increasing presence of obesogenic behaviours. Surrogate markers of adiposity increased with numbers of concurrent presence of obesogenic behaviours. The opposite was true for high maternal and paternal education.

The impact of physical activity on cumulative cardiovascular disease risk factors among Malaysian adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasiah, Rajah; Thangiah, Govindamal; Yusoff, Khalid; Manikam, Rishya; Chandrasekaran, Sankara Kumar; Mustafa, Rujhan; Bakar, Najmin Binti Abu

2015-12-16

Numerous studies have shown the importance of physical activity in reducing the morbidity and mortality rates caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, most of these studies emphasise little on the cumulative effect of CVD risk factors. Hence, this study investigates the association between physical exercise and cumulative CVD risk factors among adults in three different age groups. Using a sample of 7276 respondents drawn from community centers, the REDISCOVER team gathered information on physical activity, CVD risk factors (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, tobacco use) and socioeconomic and demographic variables in Malaysia. Because the study required medical examination, a convenience sampling frame was preferred in which all volunteers were included in the study. Fasting blood samples and anthropometric (height, weight and more) measurements were collected by trained staffs. Socio-demographic and physical activity variables were recorded through questionnaires. A Chi-square test was performed to identify the bivariate association between the covariates (socioeconomic variables, demographic variables and physical activity) and outcome variable. The association between the main exposure, physical activity, and the outcome variable, cumulative CVD risk factors, was assessed using an ordinal logistic regression model, controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic influences in three different age groups, 35-49, 50-64 and 65 and above. The mean age of participants is 51.8 (SD = 9.4). Respondents in the age groups of 35-49 (aORmoderate = 0.12; 95 % CI: 0.02 - 0.53 ) and 65 and above (aORhigh = 0.58; 95 % CI: 0.24, 0.78) showed a statistically significant inverse relationship between physical activity and cumulative CVD risk factors. However, this relationship was not significant among respondents in the 50-64 age group suggesting the possible influence of other variables, such as stress and environment. The

Assessment of cumulative evidence for the association between glutathione S-transferase polymorphisms and lung cancer: application of the Venice interim guidelines.

Science.gov (United States)

Langevin, Scott M; Ioannidis, John P A; Vineis, Paolo; Taioli, Emanuela

2010-10-01

There is an overwhelming abundance of genetic association studies available in the literature, which can often be collectively difficult to interpret. To address this issue, the Venice interim guidelines were established for determining the credibility of the cumulative evidence. The objective of this report is to evaluate the literature on the association of common glutathione S-transferase (GST) variants (GSTM1 null, GSTT1 null and GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism) and lung cancer, and to assess the credibility of the associations using the newly proposed cumulative evidence guidelines. Information from the literature was enriched with an updated meta-analysis and a pooled analysis using data from the Genetic Susceptibility to Environmental Carcinogens database. There was a significant association between GSTM1 null and lung cancer for the meta-analysis (meta odds ratio=1.17, 95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.25) and pooled analysis (adjusted odds ratio=1.10, 95% confidence interval: 1.04-1.16), although substantial heterogeneity was present. No overall association between lung cancer and GSTT1 null or GSTP1 Ile105Val was found. When the Venice criteria was applied, cumulative evidence for all associations were considered 'weak', with the exception of East Asian carriers of the G allele of GSTP1 Ile105Val, which was graded as 'moderate' evidence. Despite the large amounts of studies, and several statistically significant summary estimates produced by meta-analyses, the application of the Venice criteria suggests extensive heterogeneity and susceptibility to bias for the studies on association of common genetic polymorphisms, such as with GST variants and lung cancer.

Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Gerald G; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai M A

2017-09-01

Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits - fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity-addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for approaches

Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach

KAUST Repository

Singh, Gerald G.

2017-05-23

Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits — fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity—addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for

Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)

1996-03-01

A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) and (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems.

CUMULATE ROCKS ASSOCIATED WITH CARBONATE ASSIMILATION, HORTAVÆR COMPLEX, NORTH-CENTRAL NORWAY

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, C. G.; Prestvik, T.; Li, Y.

2009-12-01

The Hortavær igneous complex intruded high-grade metamorphic rocks of the Caledonian Helgeland Nappe Complex at ca. 466 Ma. The complex is an unusual mafic-silicic layered intrusion (MASLI) because the principal felsic rock type is syenite and because the syenite formed in situ rather than by deep-seated partial melting of crustal rocks. Magma differentiation in the complex was by assimilation, primarily of calc-silicate rocks and melts with contributions from marble and semi-pelites, plus fractional crystallization. The effect of assimilation of calcite-rich rocks was to enhance stability of fassaitic clinopyroxene at the expense of olivine, which resulted in alkali-rich residual melts and lowering of silica activity. This combination of MASLI-style emplacement and carbonate assimilation produced three types of cumulate rocks: (1) Syenitic cumulates formed by liquid-crystal separation. As sheets of mafic magma were loaded on crystal-rich syenitic magma, residual liquid was expelled, penetrating the overlying mafic sheets in flame structures, and leaving a cumulate syenite. (2) Reaction cumulates. Carbonate assimilation, illustrated by a simple assimilation reaction: olivine + calcite + melt = clinopyroxene + CO2 resulted in cpx-rich cumulates such as clinopyroxenite, gabbro, and mela-monzodiorite, many of which contain igneous calcite. (3) Magmatic skarns. Calc-silicate host rocks underwent partial melting during assimilation, yielding a Ca-rich melt as the principal assimilated material and permitting extensive reaction with surrounding magma to form Kspar + cpx + garnet-rich ‘cumulate’ rocks. Cumulate types (2) and (3) do not reflect traditional views of cumulate rocks but instead result from a series of melt-present discontinuous (peritectic) reactions and partial melting of calc-silicate xenoliths. In the Hortavær complex, such cumulates are evident because of the distinctive peritectic cumulate assemblages. It is unclear whether assimilation of �

A paradox of cumulative culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Yutaka; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

2015-08-21

Culture can grow cumulatively if socially learnt behaviors are improved by individual learning before being passed on to the next generation. Previous authors showed that this kind of learning strategy is unlikely to be evolutionarily stable in the presence of a trade-off between learning and reproduction. This is because culture is a public good that is freely exploited by any member of the population in their model (cultural social dilemma). In this paper, we investigate the effect of vertical transmission (transmission from parents to offspring), which decreases the publicness of culture, on the evolution of cumulative culture in both infinite and finite population models. In the infinite population model, we confirm that culture accumulates largely as long as transmission is purely vertical. It turns out, however, that introduction of even slight oblique transmission drastically reduces the equilibrium level of culture. Even more surprisingly, if the population size is finite, culture hardly accumulates even under purely vertical transmission. This occurs because stochastic extinction due to random genetic drift prevents a learning strategy from accumulating enough culture. Overall, our theoretical results suggest that introducing vertical transmission alone does not really help solve the cultural social dilemma problem. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating environmental monitoring with cumulative effects management and decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Cronmiller, Joshua G; Noble, Bram F

2018-05-01

Cumulative effects (CE) monitoring is foundational to emerging regional and watershed CE management frameworks, yet monitoring is often poorly integrated with CE management and decision-making processes. The challenges are largely institutional and organizational, more so than scientific or technical. Calls for improved integration of monitoring with CE management and decision making are not new, but there has been limited research on how best to integrate environmental monitoring programs to ensure credible CE science and to deliver results that respond to the more immediate questions and needs of regulatory decision makers. This paper examines options for the integration of environmental monitoring with CE frameworks. Based on semistructured interviews with practitioners, regulators, and other experts in the Lower Athabasca, Alberta, Canada, 3 approaches to monitoring system design are presented. First, a distributed monitoring system, reflecting the current approach in the Lower Athabasca, where monitoring is delegated to different external programs and organizations; second, a 1-window system in which monitoring is undertaken by a single, in-house agency for the purpose of informing management and regulatory decision making; third, an independent system driven primarily by CE science and understanding causal relationships, with knowledge adopted for decision support where relevant to specific management questions. The strengths and limitations of each approach are presented. A hybrid approach may be optimal-an independent, nongovernment, 1-window model for CE science, monitoring, and information delivery-capitalizing on the strengths of distributed, 1-window, and independent monitoring systems while mitigating their weaknesses. If governments are committed to solving CE problems, they must invest in the long-term science needed to do so; at the same time, if science-based monitoring programs are to be sustainable over the long term, they must be responsive to

About the cumulants of periodic signals

Science.gov (United States)

Barrau, Axel; El Badaoui, Mohammed

2018-01-01

This note studies cumulants of time series. These functions originating from the probability theory being commonly used as features of deterministic signals, their classical properties are examined in this modified framework. We show additivity of cumulants, ensured in the case of independent random variables, requires here a different hypothesis. Practical applications are proposed, in particular an analysis of the failure of the JADE algorithm to separate some specific periodic signals.

Usefulness of intermuscular coherence and cumulant analysis in the diagnosis of postural tremor

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Stouwe, A. M. M.; Conway, B. A.; Elting, J. W.; Tijssen, M. A. J.; Maurits, N. M.

Objective: To investigate the potential value of two advanced EMG measures as additional diagnostic measures in the polymyographic assessment of postural upper-limb tremor. Methods: We investigated coherence as a measure of dependency between two EMG signals, and cumulant analysis to reveal patterns

Cumulative doses analysis in young trauma patients: a single-centre experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Salerno, Sergio; Marrale, Maurizio; Geraci, Claudia; Caruso, Giuseppe; Lo Re, Giuseppe; Lo Casto, Antonio; Midiri, Massimo

2016-02-01

Multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) represents the main source of radiation exposure in trauma patients. The radiation exposure of young patients is a matter of considerable medical concern due to possible long-term effects. Multiple MDCT studies have been observed in the young trauma population with an increase in radiation exposure. We have identified 249 young adult patients (178 men and 71 women; age range 14-40 years) who had received more than one MDCT study between June 2010 and June 2014. According to the International Commission on Radiological Protection publication, we have calculated the cumulative organ dose tissue-weighting factors by using CT-EXPO software(®). We have observed a mean cumulative dose of about 27 mSv (range from 3 to 297 mSv). The distribution analysis is characterised by low effective dose, below 20 mSv, in the majority of the patients. However, in 29 patients, the effective dose was found to be higher than 20 mSv. Dose distribution for the various organs analysed (breasts, ovaries, testicles, heart and eye lenses) shows an intense peak for lower doses, but in some cases high doses were recorded. Even though cumulative doses may have long-term effects, which are still under debate, high doses are observed in this specific group of young patients.

Cumulative trauma and partner conflict predict post-traumatic stress disorder in postpartum African-American women.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauff, Nancy J; Fry-McComish, Judith; Chiodo, Lisa M

2017-08-01

To describe relationships between cumulative trauma, partner conflict and post-traumatic stress in African-American postpartum women. Cumulative trauma exposure estimates for women in the USA range from 51-69%. During pregnancy, most trauma research has focused on physical injury to the mother. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with trauma and more prevalent in African-American women than women of other groups. Knowledge about both the rate and impact of cumulative trauma on pregnancy may contribute to our understanding of women seeking prenatal care, and disparities in infant morbidity and mortality. This retrospective, correlational, cross-sectional study took place on postpartum units of two Detroit hospitals. Participants were 150 African-American women aged between 18-45 who had given birth. Mothers completed the Cumulative Trauma Scale, Conflict Tactics Scale, Clinician Administered Post-traumatic Stress Scale, Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and a Demographic Data form. Descriptive statistics, correlations and multiple regressions were used for data analysis. All participants reported at least one traumatic event in their lifetime. Cumulative trauma and partner conflict predicted PTSD, with the trauma of a life-threatening event for a loved one reported by 60% of the sample. Nearly, one-fourth of the women screened were at risk for PTSD. Increased cumulative trauma, increased partner conflict and lower level of education were related to higher rates of PTSD symptoms. Both cumulative trauma and partner conflict in the past year predict PTSD. Reasoning was used most often for partner conflict resolution. The results of this study offer additional knowledge regarding relationships between cumulative trauma, partner conflict and PTSD in African-American women. Healthcare providers need to be sensitive to patient life-threatening events, personal failures, abuse and other types of trauma. Current evidence supports the need to assess for

Cumulative effects of climate and landscape change drive spatial distribution of Rocky Mountain wolverine (Gulo gulo L.).

Science.gov (United States)

Heim, Nicole; Fisher, Jason T; Clevenger, Anthony; Paczkowski, John; Volpe, John

2017-11-01

Contemporary landscapes are subject to a multitude of human-derived stressors. Effects of such stressors are increasingly realized by population declines and large-scale extirpation of taxa worldwide. Most notably, cumulative effects of climate and landscape change can limit species' local adaptation and dispersal capabilities, thereby reducing realized niche space and range extent. Resolving the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on species persistence is a pressing challenge in ecology, especially for declining species. For example, wolverines ( Gulo gulo L.) persist on only 40% of their historic North American range. While climate change has been shown to be a mechanism of range retractions, anthropogenic landscape disturbance has been recently implicated. We hypothesized these two interact to effect declines. We surveyed wolverine occurrence using camera trapping and genetic tagging at 104 sites at the wolverine range edge, spanning a 15,000 km 2 gradient of climate, topographic, anthropogenic, and biotic variables. We used occupancy and generalized linear models to disentangle the factors explaining wolverine distribution. Persistent spring snow pack-expected to decrease with climate change-was a significant predictor, but so was anthropogenic landscape change. Canid mesocarnivores, which we hypothesize are competitors supported by anthropogenic landscape change, had comparatively weaker effect. Wolverine population declines and range shifts likely result from climate change and landscape change operating in tandem. We contend that similar results are likely for many species and that research that simultaneously examines climate change, landscape change, and the biotic landscape is warranted. Ecology research and species conservation plans that address these interactions are more likely to meet their objectives.

Cumulative effective dose associated with computed tomography examinations in adolescent trauma patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Seung Joon; Kim, Eun Young; Kim, Hyung Sik; Choi, Hye-Young; Cho, Jinseong; Yang, Hyuk Jun; Chung, Yong Eun

2014-07-01

The aims of this study were to analyze cumulative effective dose (cED) and to assess lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of cancer due to radiation exposure during computed tomography (CT) examinations in adolescent trauma patients. Between January 2010 and May 2011, the adolescent patients with trauma were enrolled in this study. Numbers of CT examinations and body regions examined were collated, and cEDs were calculated using dose-length product values and conversion factors. Lifetime attributable risk for cancer incidence and cancer-associated mortality were quantified based on the studies of survivors of the atomic bombs on Japan. Data were stratified according to severity of trauma: minor trauma, injury severity score of less than 16; and major trauma, injury severity score of 16 or greater. A total of 698 CT scans were obtained on the following regions of 484 adolescent patients: head CT, n = 647; rest of the body, n = 41; and thorax, n = 10. Mean cED per patient was 3.4 mSv, and mean LARs for cancer incidence and mortality were 0.05% and 0.02%, respectively. The majority of patients (98.4%) experienced minor trauma, and their mean cED and LARs for cancer incidence and mortality (3.0 mSv and 0.04% and 0.02%, respectively) were significantly lower than those of patients with major trauma (24.3 mSv and 0.31% and 0.15%, respectively, all P values trauma was found to be relatively low in adolescent patients. However, adolescent patients with major trauma were exposed to a substantial amount of radiation during multiple CT examinations.

Cumulative childhood risk and adult functioning in abused and neglected children grown up.

Science.gov (United States)

Horan, Jacqueline M; Widom, Cathy Spatz

2015-08-01

This paper examines the relationship between childhood exposure to cumulative risk and three indicators of psychosocial adjustment in adulthood (educational attainment, mental health, and criminal behavior) and tests three different models (linear, quadratic, and interaction). Data were collected over several time points from individuals who were part of a prospective cohort design study that matched children with documented cases of abuse and/or neglect with children without such histories and followed them into adulthood. Hierarchical multiple regressions compared linear and quadratic models and then examined potential moderating effects of child abuse/neglect and gender. Exposure to a greater number of childhood risk factors was significantly related to fewer years of education, more anxiety and depression symptomatology, and more criminal arrests in adulthood. The relationship between cumulative risk and years of education demonstrated a curvilinear pattern, whereas the relationship between cumulative risk and both mental health and criminal arrests was linear. Child abuse/neglect did not moderate these relationships, although there were direct effects for both child abuse/neglect and gender on criminal arrests, with more arrests for abused/neglected individuals than controls and more for males than females. Gender interacted with cumulative risk to impact educational attainment and criminal behavior, suggesting that interventions may be more effective if tailored differently for males and females. Interventions may need to be multifaceted and designed to address these different domains of functioning.

Cumulative Effects of Barriers on the Movements of Forest Birds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marc Bélisle

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Although there is a consensus of opinion that habitat fragmentation has deleterious effects on animal populations, primarily by inhibiting dispersal among remaining patches, there have been few explicit demonstrations of the ways by which degraded habitats actually constrain individual movement. Two impediments are primarily responsible for this paucity: it is difficult to separate the effects of habitat fragmentation (configuration from habitat loss (composition, and conventional measures of fragmented habitats are assumed to be, but probably are not, isotropic. We addressed these limitations by standardizing differences in forest cover in a clearly anisotropic configuration of habitat fragmentation by conducting a homing experiment with three species of forest birds in the Bow Valley of Banff National Park, Canada. Birds were translocated (1.2-3.5  km either parallel or perpendicular to four/five parallel barriers that are assumed to impede the cross-valley travel of forest-dependent animals. Taken together, individuals exhibited longer return times when they were translocated across these barriers, but differences among species suggest a more complex interpretation. A long-distance migrant (Yellow-rumped Warbler, Dendroica coronata behaved as predicted, but a short-distance migrant (Golden-crowned Kinglet, Regulus satrapa was indifferent to barrier configuration. A resident (Red-breasted Nuthatch, Sitta canadensis exhibited longer return times when it was translocated parallel to the barriers. Our results suggest that an anisotropic arrangement of small, open areas in fragmented landscapes can have a cumulative barrier effect on the movement of forest animals, but that both modelers and managers will have to acknowledge potentially counterintuitive differences among species to predict the effect that these may have on individual movement and, ultimately, dispersal.

Cumulative Student Loan Debt in Minnesota, 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Williams-Wyche, Shaun

2016-01-01

To better understand student debt in Minnesota, the Minnesota Office of Higher Education (the Office) gathers information on cumulative student loan debt from Minnesota degree-granting institutions. These data detail the number of students with loans by institution, the cumulative student loan debt incurred at that institution, and the percentage…

Cumulative emission budgets and their implications: the case for SAFE carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Myles; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David; Mason, Charles

2010-05-01

The risk of dangerous long-term climate change due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions is predominantly determined by cumulative emissions over all time, not the rate of emission in any given year or commitment period. This has profound implications for climate mitigation policy: emission targets for specific years such as 2020 or 2050 provide no guarantee of meeting any overall cumulative emission budget. By focusing attention on short-term measures to reduce the flow of emissions, they may even exacerbate the overall long-term stock. Here we consider how climate policies might be designed explicitly to limit cumulative emissions to, for example, one trillion tonnes of carbon, a figure that has been estimated to give a most likely warming of two degrees above pre-industrial, with a likely range of 1.6-2.6 degrees. Three approaches are considered: tradable emission permits with the possibility of indefinite emission banking, carbon taxes explicitly linked to cumulative emissions and mandatory carbon sequestration. Framing mitigation policy around cumulative targets alleviates the apparent tension between climate protection and short-term consumption that bedevils any attempt to forge global agreement. We argue that the simplest and hence potentially the most effective approach might be a mandatory requirement on the fossil fuel industry to ensure that a steadily increasing fraction of fossil carbon extracted from the ground is artificially removed from the active carbon cycle through some form of sequestration. We define Sequestered Adequate Fraction of Extracted (SAFE) carbon as a source in which this sequestered fraction is anchored to cumulative emissions, increasing smoothly to reach 100% before we release the trillionth tonne. While adopting the use of SAFE carbon would increase the cost of fossil energy much as a system of emission permits or carbon taxes would, it could do so with much less explicit government intervention. We contrast this proposal

A mixture of Iprodione and Vinclozolin delays the onset of puberty in the male rat in a cumulative manner.

Science.gov (United States)

Vinclozolin and iprodione are dicarboximide fungicides that display anti-androgenic effects in the male rat, which suggests co-exposure to these fungicides would lead to cumulative effects on androgen-sensitive endpoints. In order to test for cumulative effects by iprodione and v...

Cumulative effect of zinc oxide and titanium oxide nanoparticles on growth and chlorophyll a content of Picochlorum sp.

Science.gov (United States)

Hazeem, Layla J; Bououdina, Mohammed; Rashdan, Suad; Brunet, Loïc; Slomianny, Christian; Boukherroub, Rabah

2016-02-01

The use of nanoparticles (NPs) is of increasing significance due to their large potential for various applications. Great attention should be paid on the possible impacts of nanoparticles on the environment as large amounts of them may reach the environment by accident or voluntarily. Marine algae are potential organisms for usage in nanopollution bioremediation in aquatic system, because of their ability to adapt to long exposure to NPs. Thus, it is of prime importance to study the possible interactions of different NPs with microalgae in assessing their potential environmental risks. Most studies on potential environmental effects of ZnO and TiO2 NPs have been performed independently and following the widely accepted, standardized test systems, which had been developed for the characterization of chemicals. In this study, we have examined the cumulative effect of ZnO and TiO2 NPs on Picochlorum sp. in addition to the individual effects of these NPs over 32 days. Our results indicate that the toxicity and availability of NPs to marine algae are reduced by their aggregation and sedimentation. NPs are found to have a negative effect on algal growth and chlorophyll a concentration during the early growth stages. In contrast, the case is reversed during the late growth stages. There is no significant difference between the effect of the NPs when they are used separately and when both ZnO and TiO2 are used together in the test (P > 0.05).

Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability: Marginal and Cause-Specific Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

2005-01-01

cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling......cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling...

Direct releases to the surface and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: cuttings, cavings and spallings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berglund, J.W.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Smith, L.N.

2000-01-01

The following topics related to the treatment of cuttings, cavings and spallings releases to the surface environment in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented: (i) mathematical description of models; (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e. epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases; (iii) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e. aleatory) uncertainty; and (iv) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for CCDFs. The presented results indicate that direct releases due to cuttings, cavings and spallings do not constitute a serious threat to the effectiveness of the WIPP as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, the CCDFs for cuttings, cavings and spallings releases fall substantially to the left of the boundary line specified in the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194)

Direct releases to the surface and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Cuttings, cavings and spallings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berglund, J.W.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, Jon Craig; Johnson, J.D.; Smith, L.N.; Anderson, R.P.

2000-01-01

The following topics related to the treatment of cuttings, cavings and spallings releases to the surface environment in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented: (1) mathematical description of models. (2) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases, (3) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e., aleatory) uncertainty, and (4) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for CCDFs. The presented results indicate that direct releases due to cuttings, cavings and spallings do not constitute a serious threat to the effectiveness of the WIPP as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, the CCDFs for cuttings, cavings and spallings releases fall substantially to the left of the boundary line specified in the US Environmental Protection Agency standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194)

Cumulative high doses of inhaled formoterol have less systemic effects in asthmatic children 6-11 years-old than cumulative high doses of inhaled terbutaline.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaae, Rikke; Agertoft, Lone; Pedersen, Sören; Nordvall, S Lennart; Pedroletti, Christophe; Bengtsson, Thomas; Johannes-Hellberg, Ingegerd; Rosenborg, Johan

2004-10-01

To evaluate high dose tolerability and relative systemic dose potency between inhaled clinically equipotent dose increments of formoterol and terbutaline in children. Twenty boys and girls (6-11 years-old) with asthma and normal ECGs were studied. Ten doses of formoterol (Oxis) 4.5 microg (F4.5) or terbutaline (Bricanyl) 500 microg (T500) were inhaled cumulatively via a dry powder inhaler (Turbuhaler) over 1 h (three patients) or 2.5 h (17 patients) and compared to a day of no treatment, in a randomised, double-blind (active treatments only), crossover trial. Blood pressure (BP), ECG, plasma potassium, glucose, lactate, and adverse events were monitored up to 10 h to assess tolerability and relative systemic dose potency. Formoterol and terbutaline had significant beta2-adrenergic effects on most outcomes. Apart from the effect on systolic BP, QRS duration and PR interval, the systemic effects were significantly more pronounced with terbutaline than with formoterol. Thus, mean minimum plasma potassium, was suppressed from 3.56 (95% confidence interval, CI: 3.48-3.65) mmol l(-1) on the day of no treatment to 2.98 (CI: 2.90-3.08) after 10 x F4.5 and 2.70 (CI: 2.61-2.78) mmol l(-1) after 10 x T500, and maximum Q-Tc (heart rate corrected Q-T interval [Bazett's formula]) was prolonged from 429 (CI: 422-435) ms on the day of no treatment, to 455 (CI: 448-462) ms after 10 x F4.5 and 470 (CI: 463-476) ms after 10 x T500. Estimates of relative dose potency indicated that F4.5 microg had the same systemic activity as the clinically less effective dose of 250 microg terbutaline. The duration of systemic effects differed marginally between treatments. Spontaneously reported adverse events (most frequently tremor) were fewer with formoterol (78% of the children) than with terbutaline (95%). A serious adverse event occurred after inhalation of 45 microg formoterol over the 1 h dosing time, that prompted the extension of dosing time to 2.5 h. Multiple inhalations over 2.5 h of

Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

2000-01-01

Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen) advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California. PMID:29659481

Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raoul S. Liévanos

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California.

Retooling CalEnviroScreen: Cumulative Pollution Burden and Race-Based Environmental Health Vulnerabilities in California.

Science.gov (United States)

Liévanos, Raoul S

2018-04-16

The California Community Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen) advances research and policy pertaining to environmental health vulnerability. However, CalEnviroScreen departs from its historical foundations and comparable screening tools by no longer considering racial status as an indicator of environmental health vulnerability and predictor of cumulative pollution burden. This study used conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques from environmental health and inequality literature to address the limitations of CalEnviroScreen, especially its inattention to race-based environmental health vulnerabilities. It developed an adjusted measure of cumulative pollution burden from the CalEnviroScreen 2.0 data that facilitates multivariate analyses of the effect of neighborhood racial composition on cumulative pollution burden, net of other indicators of population vulnerability, traffic density, industrial zoning, and local and regional clustering of pollution burden. Principal component analyses produced three new measures of population vulnerability, including Latina/o cumulative disadvantage that represents the spatial concentration of Latinas/os, economic disadvantage, limited English-speaking ability, and health vulnerability. Spatial error regression analyses demonstrated that concentrations of Latinas/os, followed by Latina/o cumulative disadvantage, are the strongest demographic determinants of adjusted cumulative pollution burden. Findings have implications for research and policy pertaining to cumulative impacts and race-based environmental health vulnerabilities within and beyond California.

Evaluation of Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary, 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, Gary E.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Thom, Ronald M.; Roegner, G. Curtis; Ebberts, Blaine D.; Skalski, John R.; Borde, Amy B.; Dawley, Earl; Coleman, Andre M.; Woodruff, Dana L.; Breithaupt, Stephen A.; Cameron, April; Corbett, C.; Donley, Erin E.; Jay, D. A.; Ke, Yinghai; Leffler, K.; McNeil, C.; Studebaker, Cindy; Tagestad, Jerry D.

2012-05-01

This is the seventh and final annual report of a project (2004–2010) addressing evaluation of the cumulative effects of habitat restoration actions in the 235-km-long lower Columbia River and estuary. The project, called the Cumulative Effects (CE) study, was conducted for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District by a collaboration of research agencies led by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. We achieved the primary goal of the CE study to develop a methodology to evaluate the cumulative effects of habitat actions in the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program. We delivered 1) standard monitoring protocols and methods to prioritize monitoring activities; 2) the theoretical and empirical basis for a CE methodology using levels-of-evidence; 3) evaluations of cumulative effects using ecological relationships, geo-referenced data, hydrodynamic modeling, and meta-analyses; and 4) an adaptive management process to coordinate and coalesce restoration efforts in the LCRE. A solid foundation has been laid for future comprehensive evaluations of progress made by the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program to understand, conserve, and restore ecosystems in the lower Columbia River and estuary.

Genetic algorithm-based improved DOA estimation using fourth-order cumulants

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, Ammar; Tufail, Muhammad

2017-05-01

Genetic algorithm (GA)-based direction of arrival (DOA) estimation is proposed using fourth-order cumulants (FOC) and ESPRIT principle which results in Multiple Invariance Cumulant ESPRIT algorithm. In the existing FOC ESPRIT formulations, only one invariance is utilised to estimate DOAs. The unused multiple invariances (MIs) must be exploited simultaneously in order to improve the estimation accuracy. In this paper, a fitness function based on a carefully designed cumulant matrix is developed which incorporates MIs present in the sensor array. Better DOA estimation can be achieved by minimising this fitness function. Moreover, the effectiveness of Newton's method as well as GA for this optimisation problem has been illustrated. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm provides improved estimation accuracy compared to existing algorithms, especially in the case of low SNR, less number of snapshots, closely spaced sources and high signal and noise correlation. Moreover, it is observed that the optimisation using Newton's method is more likely to converge to false local optima resulting in erroneous results. However, GA-based optimisation has been found attractive due to its global optimisation capability.

A cumulant functional for static and dynamic correlation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollett, Joshua W.; Hosseini, Hessam; Menzies, Cameron

2016-01-01

A functional for the cumulant energy is introduced. The functional is composed of a pair-correction and static and dynamic correlation energy components. The pair-correction and static correlation energies are functionals of the natural orbitals and the occupancy transferred between near-degenerate orbital pairs, rather than the orbital occupancies themselves. The dynamic correlation energy is a functional of the statically correlated on-top two-electron density. The on-top density functional used in this study is the well-known Colle-Salvetti functional. Using the cc-pVTZ basis set, the functional effectively models the bond dissociation of H 2 , LiH, and N 2 with equilibrium bond lengths and dissociation energies comparable to those provided by multireference second-order perturbation theory. The performance of the cumulant functional is less impressive for HF and F 2 , mainly due to an underestimation of the dynamic correlation energy by the Colle-Salvetti functional.

Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

2017-07-01

Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

Evaluation of cumulative effects of MR imaging on pacemaker systems at 1.5 Tesla.

Science.gov (United States)

Naehle, Claas P; Zeijlemaker, Volkert; Thomas, Daniel; Meyer, Carsten; Strach, Katharina; Fimmers, Rolf; Schild, Hans; Sommer, Torsten

2009-12-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate possible cumulative effects of repeated magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examinations on pacemaker systems in patients with cardiac pacemakers. The records of pacemaker patients who underwent repetitive MRI examinations in our institution were reviewed to identify patients who underwent two or more MRI examinations at 1.5T of any anatomical region. Using these criteria, a total of 47 patients who underwent a total 171 MRI examinations were identified and included in this study. Institutional Review Board approval for all pacemaker investigations was obtained. Written informed consent was obtained from all patients. Pacemakers were interrogated immediately before and after MR imaging, and after 3 months, including measurement of pacing capture threshold (PCT), lead impedance (LI), and battery voltage (BV). PCT, LI, and BV were analyzed for changes dependant on the number of MRI exams performed. Mean changes over time and changes between first and last pacemaker interrogation of PCT, LI, and BV were calculated. A statistically significant (P < 0.05), but clinically irrelevant trend for decrease in PCT and BV was found. No significant or clinically relevant changes in LI were observed. In this first study, no clinically relevant, cumulative changes in PCT, LI, or BV could be detected in PM patients who underwent two or more MRI examinations. However, a careful benefit/risk evaluation, among other MRI- and pacemaker-related safety precautions, remains mandatory, as clinically relevant alterations to the PM system cannot be excluded by all means.

Original and cumulative prospect theory: a discussion of empirical differences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wakker, P.P.; Fennema, H.

1997-01-01

This note discusses differences between prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory. It shows that cumulative prospect theory is not merely a formal correction of some theoretical problems in prospect theory, but it also gives different predictions. Experiments are described that favor cumulative

A probabilistic analysis of cumulative carbon emissions and long-term planetary warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fyke, Jeremy; Matthews, H Damon

2015-01-01

Efforts to mitigate and adapt to long-term climate change could benefit greatly from probabilistic estimates of cumulative carbon emissions due to fossil fuel burning and resulting CO 2 -induced planetary warming. Here we demonstrate the use of a reduced-form model to project these variables. We performed simulations using a large-ensemble framework with parametric uncertainty sampled to produce distributions of future cumulative emissions and consequent planetary warming. A hind-cast ensemble of simulations captured 1980–2012 historical CO 2 emissions trends and an ensemble of future projection simulations generated a distribution of emission scenarios that qualitatively resembled the suite of Representative and Extended Concentration Pathways. The resulting cumulative carbon emission and temperature change distributions are characterized by 5–95th percentile ranges of 0.96–4.9 teratonnes C (Tt C) and 1.4 °C–8.5 °C, respectively, with 50th percentiles at 3.1 Tt C and 4.7 °C. Within the wide range of policy-related parameter combinations that produced these distributions, we found that low-emission simulations were characterized by both high carbon prices and low costs of non-fossil fuel energy sources, suggesting the importance of these two policy levers in particular for avoiding dangerous levels of climate warming. With this analysis we demonstrate a probabilistic approach to the challenge of identifying strategies for limiting cumulative carbon emissions and assessing likelihoods of surpassing dangerous temperature thresholds. (letter)

Cumulative particle production in the quark recombination model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gavrilov, V.B.; Leksin, G.A.

1987-01-01

Production of cumulative particles in hadron-nuclear inteactions at high energies is considered within the framework of recombination quark model. Predictions for inclusive cross sections of production of cumulative particles and different resonances containing quarks in s state are made

Acute Stress Symptoms in Seriously Injured Patients: Precipitating Versus Cumulative Trauma and the Contribution of Peritraumatic Distress.

Science.gov (United States)

Briere, John; Dias, Colin P; Semple, Randye J; Scott, Catherine; Bigras, Noémie; Godbout, Natacha

2017-08-01

The relationship between type of trauma exposure, cumulative trauma, peritraumatic distress, and subsequent acute stress disorder (ASD) symptoms was examined prospectively in 96 individuals presenting with acute medical injuries to a Level 1 emergency/trauma department. Common precipitating traumas included motor vehicle-related events, stabbings, shootings, and physical assaults. At 2 to 3 weeks follow-up, 22.9% of participants had developed ASD. Univariate analysis revealed no relationship between type of precipitating trauma and ASD symptoms, whereas robust path analysis indicated direct effects of gender, lifetime cumulative trauma exposure, and peritraumatic distress. Peritraumatic distress did not mediate the association between cumulative trauma and symptoms, but did mediate the association between gender and symptomatology. These results, which account for 23.1% of the variance in ASD symptoms, suggest that ASD may be more due to cumulative trauma exposure than the nature of the precipitating trauma, but that cumulative trauma does not exert its primary effect by increasing peritraumatic distress to the most recent trauma. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

Cumulative radiation exposure in children with cystic fibrosis.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

O'Reilly, R

2010-02-01

This retrospective study calculated the cumulative radiation dose for children with cystic fibrosis (CF) attending a tertiary CF centre. Information on 77 children with a mean age of 9.5 years, a follow up time of 658 person years and 1757 studies including 1485 chest radiographs, 215 abdominal radiographs and 57 computed tomography (CT) scans, of which 51 were thoracic CT scans, were analysed. The average cumulative radiation dose was 6.2 (0.04-25) mSv per CF patient. Cumulative radiation dose increased with increasing age and number of CT scans and was greater in children who presented with meconium ileus. No correlation was identified between cumulative radiation dose and either lung function or patient microbiology cultures. Radiation carries a risk of malignancy and children are particularly susceptible. Every effort must be made to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure in these patients whose life expectancy is increasing.

The dose-response relationship between cumulative lifting load and lumbar disk degeneration based on magnetic resonance imaging findings.

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, Yu-Ju; Shih, Tiffany T-F; Chen, Bang-Bin; Hwang, Yaw-Huei; Ma, Li-Ping; Huang, Wen-Chuan; Liou, Saou-Hsing; Ho, Ing-Kang; Guo, Yue L

2014-11-01

Lumbar disk degeneration (LDD) has been related to heavy physical loading. However, the quantification of the exposure has been controversial, and the dose-response relationship with the LDD has not been established. The purpose of this study was to investigate the dose-response relationship between lifetime cumulative lifting load and LDD. This was a cross-sectional study. Every participant received assessments with a questionnaire, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the lumbar spine, and estimation of lumbar disk compression load. The MRI assessments included assessment of disk dehydration, annulus tear, disk height narrowing, bulging, protrusion, extrusion, sequestration, degenerative and spondylolytic spondylolisthesis, foramina narrowing, and nerve root compression on each lumbar disk level. The compression load was predicted using a biomechanical software system. A total of 553 participants were recruited in this study and categorized into tertiles by cumulative lifting load (ie, lifting load. The best dose-response relationships were found at the L5-S1 disk level, in which high cumulative lifting load was associated with elevated odds ratios of 2.5 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]=1.5, 4.1) for dehydration and 4.1 (95% CI=1.9, 10.1) for disk height narrowing compared with low lifting load. Participants exposed to intermediate lifting load had an increased odds ratio of 2.1 (95% CI=1.3, 3.3) for bulging compared with low lifting load. The tests for trend were significant. There is no "gold standard" assessment tool for measuring the lumbar compression load. The results suggest a dose-response relationship between cumulative lifting load and LDD. © 2014 American Physical Therapy Association.

Single-compound and cumulative risk assessment of mycotoxins present in breakfast cereals consumed by children from Lisbon region, Portugal.

Science.gov (United States)

Assunção, Ricardo; Vasco, Elsa; Nunes, Baltazar; Loureiro, Susana; Martins, Carla; Alvito, Paula

2015-12-01

Humans can be exposed to multiple chemicals, but current risk assessment is usually carried out on one chemical at a time. Mycotoxins are commonly found in a variety of foods including those intended to consumption by children namely breakfast cereals. The present study aims to perform, the risk assessment of single and multiple mycotoxins present in breakfast cereals consumed by children (1-3 years old) from Lisbon region, Portugal. Daily exposure of children to ochratoxin A, fumonisins and trichothecenes showed no health risks to the children population considering individual mycotoxins, while exposure to aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) suggested a potential health concern for the high percentiles of intake (P90, P95 and P99). The combined exposure to fumonisins and trichothecenes are not expected to be of health concern. The combined margin of exposure (MoET) for the aflatoxins group could constitute a potential health concern and AFB1 was the main contributor for MoET. Legal limits and control strategies regarding the presence of multiple mycotoxins in foodstuffs is an urgent need. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time a cumulative risk assessment was performed on multiple mycotoxins present in breakfast cereals consumed by children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radionuclide and colloid transport in the Culebra Dolomite and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

RAMSEY, JAMES L.; BLAINE,R.; GARNER,J.W.; HELTON,JON CRAIG; JOHNSON,J.D.; SMITH,L.N.; WALLACE,M.

2000-05-22

The following topics related to radionuclide and colloid transport in the Culebra Dolomite in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented: (1) mathematical description of models, (2) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases, and (3) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e., aleatory) uncertainty. The presented results indicate that radionuclide and colloid transport in the Culebra Dolomite does not constitute a serious threat to the effectiveness of the WIPP as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, no radionuclide transport to the boundary with the accessible environment was observed; thus the associated CCDFs for comparison with the boundary line specified in the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) are degenerate in the sense of having a probability of zero of exceeding a release of zero.

The impact and cumulative effects of intimate partner abuse during pregnancy on health-related quality of life among Hong Kong Chinese women.

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, Ying; Keung Wong, Daniel Fu; Chan, Kin Sin

2008-03-01

to explore the prevalence of intimate partner abuse during pregnancy and to examine the effect and cumulative effects of different types of intimate partner abuse on health-related quality of life. a retrospective, cross-sectional, comparative design. three postnatal wards of a university-affiliated regional public hospital in Hong Kong. a community-based sample (n=1200) of postnatal women. the women were identified as abused or non-abused using the Abuse Assessment Screen Questionnaire (AAS), and various types of abuse were elaborated using the Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS-2). The Medical Outcomes Study Short-form 36 Health Survey (SF-36) measured the health-related quality of life. the prevalence rate of intimate partner abuse during pregnancy was 134 out of 1200 (11.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 9.4-13.0%). They consisted of an only psychologically abused group (32.1%, 95% CI 24.2-40.0%), an only physically abused group (20.9%, 95% CI 14.0-27.8%), and a combined psychological and physically abused group (47.0%, 95% CI 38.5-55.5%). Over half of the women (53.0%, 95% CI 44.5-61.5%) experienced more than one type of abuse. Women who had experienced different types of intimate partner abuse were associated with lower scores in the majority of domains and the subscales of the SF-36 (pquality of life of the women. the problem of intimate partner abuse during pregnancy is similar to most Western countries, and the negative effect of different types of such abuse on the health-related quality of life over time seems to be cumulative. the relatively poor health-related quality of life of the abused women highlights the necessity of developing a checklist or a structured questionnaire that will assist in the detection of different types and combinations of intimate partner abuse, and that will be helpful in the development of more effective preventive interventions or programmes.

Cumulative impacts: current research and current opinions at PSW

Science.gov (United States)

R. M. Rice

1987-01-01

Consideration of cumulative watershed effects (CWEs) has both political and physical aspects. Regardless of the practical usefulness of present methods of dealing with CWEs, the legal requirement to address them remains. Management of federal land is regulated by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and the Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972. The...

Online Scheduling in Manufacturing A Cumulative Delay Approach

CERN Document Server

Suwa, Haruhiko

2013-01-01

Online scheduling is recognized as the crucial decision-making process of production control at a phase of “being in production" according to the released shop floor schedule. Online scheduling can be also considered as one of key enablers to realize prompt capable-to-promise as well as available-to-promise to customers along with reducing production lead times under recent globalized competitive markets. Online Scheduling in Manufacturing introduces new approaches to online scheduling based on a concept of cumulative delay. The cumulative delay is regarded as consolidated information of uncertainties under a dynamic environment in manufacturing and can be collected constantly without much effort at any points in time during a schedule execution. In this approach, the cumulative delay of the schedule has the important role of a criterion for making a decision whether or not a schedule revision is carried out. The cumulative delay approach to trigger schedule revisions has the following capabilities for the ...

Cumulative meta-analysis of the relationship between useful field of view and driving performance in older adults: current and future implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Clay, Olivio J; Wadley, Virginia G; Edwards, Jerri D; Roth, David L; Roenker, Daniel L; Ball, Karlene K

2005-08-01

Driving is a complex behavior that requires the utilization of a wide range of individual abilities. Identifying assessments that not only capture individual differences, but also are related to older adults' driving performance would be beneficial. This investigation examines the relationship between the Useful Field of View (UFOV) assessment and objective measures of retrospective or concurrent driving performance, including state-recorded accidents, on-road driving, and driving simulator performance. The PubMed and PsycINFO databases were searched to retrieve eight studies that reported bivariate relationships between UFOV and these objective driving measures. Cumulative meta-analysis techniques were used to combine the effect sizes in an attempt to determine whether the strength of the relationship was stable across studies and to assess whether a sufficient number of studies have been conducted to validate the relationship between UFOV and driving performance. A within-group homogeneity of effect sizes test revealed that the samples could be thought of as being drawn from the same population, Q [7] = 11.29, p (one-tailed) = 0.13. Therefore, the effect sizes of eight studies were combined for the present cumulative meta-analysis. The weighted mean effect size across the studies revealed a large effect (Cohen's d = 0.945), with poorer UFOV performance associated with negative driving outcomes. This relationship was robust across multiple indices of driving performance and several research laboratories. This convergence of evidence across numerous studies using different methodologies confirms the importance of the UFOV assessment as a valid and reliable index of driving performance and safety. Recent prospective studies have confirmed a relationship between UFOV performance and future crashes, further supporting the use of this instrument as a potential screening measure for at-risk older drivers.

Cumulative high doses of inhaled formoterol have less systemic effects in asthmatic children 6–11 years-old than cumulative high doses of inhaled terbutaline

Science.gov (United States)

Kaae, Rikke; Agertoft, Lone; Pedersen, Sören; Nordvall, S Lennart; Pedroletti, Christophe; Bengtsson, Thomas; Johannes-Hellberg, Ingegerd; Rosenborg, Johan

2004-01-01

Objectives To evaluate high dose tolerability and relative systemic dose potency between inhaled clinically equipotent dose increments of formoterol and terbutaline in children. Methods Twenty boys and girls (6–11 years-old) with asthma and normal ECGs were studied. Ten doses of formoterol (Oxis®) 4.5 µg (F4.5) or terbutaline (Bricanyl®) 500 µg (T500) were inhaled cumulatively via a dry powder inhaler (Turbuhaler®) over 1 h (three patients) or 2.5 h (17 patients) and compared to a day of no treatment, in a randomised, double-blind (active treatments only), crossover trial. Blood pressure (BP), ECG, plasma potassium, glucose, lactate, and adverse events were monitored up to 10 h to assess tolerability and relative systemic dose potency. Results Formoterol and terbutaline had significant β2-adrenergic effects on most outcomes. Apart from the effect on systolic BP, QRS duration and PR interval, the systemic effects were significantly more pronounced with terbutaline than with formoterol. Thus, mean minimum plasma potassium, was suppressed from 3.56 (95% confidence interval, CI: 3.48–3.65) mmol l−1 on the day of no treatment to 2.98 (CI: 2.90–3.08) after 10 × F4.5 and 2.70 (CI: 2.61–2.78) mmol l−1 after 10 × T500, and maximum Q-Tc (heart rate corrected Q-T interval [Bazett's formula]) was prolonged from 429 (CI: 422–435) ms on the day of no treatment, to 455 (CI: 448–462) ms after 10 × F4.5 and 470 (CI: 463–476) ms after 10 × T500. Estimates of relative dose potency indicated that F4.5 µg had the same systemic activity as the clinically less effective dose of 250 µg terbutaline. The duration of systemic effects differed marginally between treatments. Spontaneously reported adverse events (most frequently tremor) were fewer with formoterol (78% of the children) than with terbutaline (95%). A serious adverse event occurred after inhalation of 45 µg formoterol over the 1 h dosing time, that prompted the extension of dosing time to 2.5 h

Practical management of cumulative anthropogenic impacts with working marine examples.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, Andrew J; Kyhn, Line A

2015-04-01

Human pressure on the environment is expanding and intensifying, especially in coastal and offshore areas. Major contributors to this are the current push for offshore renewable energy sources, which are thought of as environmentally friendly sources of power, as well as the continued demand for petroleum. Human disturbances, including the noise almost ubiquitously associated with human activity, are likely to increase the incidence, magnitude, and duration of adverse effects on marine life, including stress responses. Stress responses have the potential to induce fitness consequences for individuals, which add to more obvious directed takes (e.g., hunting or fishing) to increase the overall population-level impact. To meet the requirements of marine spatial planning and ecosystem-based management, many efforts are ongoing to quantify the cumulative impacts of all human actions on marine species or populations. Meanwhile, regulators face the challenge of managing these accumulating and interacting impacts with limited scientific guidance. We believe there is scientific support for capping the level of impact for (at a minimum) populations in decline or with unknown statuses. This cap on impact can be facilitated through implementation of regular application cycles for project authorization or improved programmatic and aggregated impact assessments that simultaneously consider multiple projects. Cross-company collaborations and a better incorporation of uncertainty into decision making could also help limit, if not reduce, cumulative impacts of multiple human activities. These simple management steps may also form the basis of a rudimentary form of marine spatial planning and could be used in support of future ecosystem-based management efforts. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Cumulative Effect of Racial Discrimination on the Mental Health of Ethnic Minorities in the United Kingdom.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, Stephanie; Nazroo, James; Bécares, Laia

2016-07-01

To examine the longitudinal association between cumulative exposure to racial discrimination and changes in the mental health of ethnic minority people. We used data from 4 waves (2009-2013) of the UK Household Longitudinal Study, a longitudinal household panel survey of approximately 40 000 households, including an ethnic minority boost sample of approximately 4000 households. Ethnic minority people who reported exposure to racial discrimination at 1 time point had 12-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12) mental component scores 1.93 (95% confidence interval [CI] = -3.31, -0.56) points lower than did those who reported no exposure to racial discrimination, whereas those who had been exposed to 2 or more domains of racial discrimination, at 2 different time points, had SF-12 mental component scores 8.26 (95% CI = -13.33, -3.18) points lower than did those who reported no experiences of racial discrimination. Controlling for racial discrimination and other socioeconomic factors reduced ethnic inequalities in mental health. Cumulative exposure to racial discrimination has incremental negative long-term effects on the mental health of ethnic minority people in the United Kingdom. Studies that examine exposure to racial discrimination at 1 point in time may underestimate the contribution of racism to poor health.

A Case Study Application of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) and Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) Frameworks to Facilitate the Integration of Human Health and Ecological End Points for Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA)

Science.gov (United States)

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to apportion exposures and integrate risk from multiple stressors. While CSMs may encompass multiple species, evaluating end points across taxa can be challenging due to data availability an...

Dynamic prediction of cumulative incidence functions by direct binomial regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Grand, Mia K; de Witte, Theo J M; Putter, Hein

2018-03-25

In recent years there have been a series of advances in the field of dynamic prediction. Among those is the development of methods for dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function in a competing risk setting. These models enable the predictions to be updated as time progresses and more information becomes available, for example when a patient comes back for a follow-up visit after completing a year of treatment, the risk of death, and adverse events may have changed since treatment initiation. One approach to model the cumulative incidence function in competing risks is by direct binomial regression, where right censoring of the event times is handled by inverse probability of censoring weights. We extend the approach by combining it with landmarking to enable dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function. The proposed models are very flexible, as they allow the covariates to have complex time-varying effects, and we illustrate how to investigate possible time-varying structures using Wald tests. The models are fitted using generalized estimating equations. The method is applied to bone marrow transplant data and the performance is investigated in a simulation study. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Cumulative effective dose and cancer risk for pediatric population in repetitive full spine follow-up imaging: How micro dose is the EOS microdose protocol?

Science.gov (United States)

Law, Martin; Ma, Wang-Kei; Lau, Damian; Cheung, Kenneth; Ip, Janice; Yip, Lawrance; Lam, Wendy

2018-04-01

To evaluate and to obtain analytic formulation for the calculation of the effective dose and associated cancer risk using the EOS microdose protocol for scoliotic pediatric patients undergoing full spine imaging at different age of exposure; to demonstrate the microdose protocol capable of delivering lesser radiation dose and hence of further reducing cancer risk induction when compared with the EOS low dose protocol; to obtain cumulative effective dose and cancer risk for both genders scoliotic pediatrics of US and Hong Kong population using the microdose protocol. Organ absorbed doses of full spine exposed scoliotic pediatric patients have been simulated with the use of EOS microdose protocol imaging parameters input to the Monte Carlo software PCXMC. Gender and age specific effective dose has been calculated with the simulated organ absorbed dose using the ICRP-103 approach. The associated radiation induced cancer risk, expressed as lifetime attributable risk (LAR), has been estimated according to the method introduced in the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. Values of LAR have been estimated for scoliotic patients exposed repetitively during their follow up period at different age for US and Hong Kong population. The effective doses of full spine imaging with simultaneous posteroanterior and lateral projection for patients exposed at the age between 5 and 18 years using the EOS microdose protocol have been calculated within the range of 2.54-14.75 μSv. The corresponding LAR for US and Hong Kong population was ranged between 0.04 × 10 -6 and 0.84 × 10 -6 . Cumulative effective dose and cancer risk during follow-up period can be estimated using the results and are of information to patients and their parents. With the use of computer simulation and analytic formulation, we obtained the cumulative effective dose and cancer risk at any age of exposure for pediatric patients of US and Hong Kong population undergoing repetitive

Double Dose: The cumulative effect of TV viewing at home and in preschool on children’s activity patterns and weight status

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Sharon Taverno; Dowda, Marsha; Saunders, Ruth P.; Pate, Russell R.

2015-01-01

Little is known about how screen-based sedentary behavior at home and in preschool influences children’s health and activity patterns. The current study examined the individual and cumulative influence of TV viewing at home and in preschool on children’s physical activity (PA) and weight status. Children (n=339) attending 16 preschools in South Carolina were grouped into high and low TV groups based on parent report of children’s TV viewing at home and director report of TV use/rules in preschool. T-tests and mixed model ANOVAs examined differences in weight status and PA (min/hr) by high and low TV groups. Results revealed that children who were classified as High TV both at home and in preschool had significantly lower levels of moderate-to-vigorous PA compared with their Low TV counterparts. These findings demonstrate the importance of total environmental TV exposure on preschooler’s PA. Longitudinal and observational research to assess preschoolers’ cumulative screen-based sedentary behavior and its relationship with PA and weight status is needed. PMID:23502043

Correlating cumulative sub-concussive head impacts in football with player performance - biomed 2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Rowson, Steven; Goforth, Mike W; Dietter, Dave; Brolinson, P Gunnar; Duma, Stefanan M

2009-01-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of cumulative sub-concussive head impacts on football player performance. The helmets of three Virginia Tech football players were instrumented with a six accelerometer sensor capable of measuring head acceleration. Helmets were instrumented for every game during the 2006 and 2007 football seasons. Each time the head was impacted during a game, the sensor recorded the impact and wirelessly transmitted the data to a sideline computer. Furthermore, the coaching staff at Virginia Tech reviewed post-game film and evaluated each player's performance based on strict criteria. Players were awarded positive points for good plays and negative points for bad plays. Their performance scores were then normalized to a per play basis. Correlations of player performance with cumulative peak linear acceleration and cumulative head injury criterion (HIC) were evaluated. No consistent head acceleration-based measure showed a strong correlation with significance. In addition, relationship trends varied on a position basis. There are many factors other than head impacts that can affect a player's performance and more research is needed to further quantify such effects.

A bivariate optimal replacement policy with cumulative repair cost ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Min-Tsai Lai

Shock model; cumulative damage model; cumulative repair cost limit; preventive maintenance model. 1. Introduction ... with two types of shocks: one type is failure shock, and the other type is damage ...... Theory, methods and applications.

Powdery Mildew Decreases the Radial Growth of Oak Trees with Cumulative and Delayed Effects over Years.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Didier Bert

Full Text Available Quercus robur and Q. petraea are major European forest tree species. They have been affected by powdery mildew caused by Erysiphe alphitoides for more than a century. This fungus is a biotrophic foliar pathogen that diverts photosynthetate from the plant for its own nutrition. We used a dendrochronological approach to investigate the effects of different levels of infection severity on the radial growth of young oak trees. Oak infection was monitored at individual tree level, at two sites in southwestern France, over a five-year period (2001-2005. Mean infection severity was almost 75% (infected leaf area at the end of the 2001 growing season, at both sites, but only about 40% in 2002, and 8%, 5% and 2% in 2003, 2004 and 2005, respectively. Infection levels varied considerably between trees and were positively related between 2001 and 2002. Increment cores were taken from each tree to assess annual ring widths and increases in basal area. Annual radial growth was standardised to take the effect of tree size into account. Annual standardised radial growth was significantly and negatively correlated with infection severity in the same year, for both 2001 and 2002, and at both sites. The decrease in growth reached 70-90% for highly infected trees. The earlywood width was poorly correlated with infection severity, but the proportion of latewood in tree rings was lower in highly infected trees (60% than in less heavily infected trees (85%. Infection in 2001 and 2002 was found to have a cumulative effect on radial growth in these years, together with a delayed effect detectable in 2003. Thus, even non-lethal pathogens like powdery mildew can have a significant impact on tree functioning. This impact should be taken into account in growth and yield models, to improve predictions of forest net primary production.

Modeling the Cumulative Effects of Social Exposures on Health: Moving beyond Disease-Specific Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heather L. White

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The traditional explanatory models used in epidemiology are “disease specific”, identifying risk factors for specific health conditions. Yet social exposures lead to a generalized, cumulative health impact which may not be specific to one illness. Disease-specific models may therefore misestimate social factors’ effects on health. Using data from the Canadian Community Health Survey and Canada 2001 Census we construct and compare “disease-specific” and “generalized health impact” (GHI models to gauge the negative health effects of one social exposure: socioeconomic position (SEP. We use logistic and multinomial multilevel modeling with neighbourhood-level material deprivation, individual-level education and household income to compare and contrast the two approaches. In disease-specific models, the social determinants under study were each associated with the health conditions of interest. However, larger effect sizes were apparent when outcomes were modeled as compound health problems (0, 1, 2, or 3+ conditions using the GHI approach. To more accurately estimate social exposures’ impacts on population health, researchers should consider a GHI framework.

The use of a Cumulative Needs for Care Monitor for individual treatment v. care as usual for patients diagnosed with severe mental illness, a cost-effectiveness analysis from the health care perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Drukker, M.; Joore, M.; van Os, J.; Sytema, S.; Driessen, G.; Bak, M.; Delespaul, Ph.

2012-01-01

Aims. To study the systematic assessment of need for care and clinical parameters for use in treatment plans in patients diagnosed with severe mental illness. Methods. The Cumulative Needs for Care Monitor (CNCM) includes various validated instruments, such as the Camberwell Assessment of Need. A

Cumulative effects of restoration efforts on ecological characteristics of an open water area within the Upper Mississippi River

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, B.R.; Shi, W.; Houser, J.N.; Rogala, J.T.; Guan, Z.; Cochran-Biederman, J. L.

2011-01-01

Ecological restoration efforts in large rivers generally aim to ameliorate ecological effects associated with large-scale modification of those rivers. This study examined whether the effects of restoration efforts-specifically those of island construction-within a largely open water restoration area of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) might be seen at the spatial scale of that 3476ha area. The cumulative effects of island construction, when observed over multiple years, were postulated to have made the restoration area increasingly similar to a positive reference area (a proximate area comprising contiguous backwater areas) and increasingly different from two negative reference areas. The negative reference areas represented the Mississippi River main channel in an area proximate to the restoration area and an open water area in a related Mississippi River reach that has seen relatively little restoration effort. Inferences on the effects of restoration were made by comparing constrained and unconstrained models of summer chlorophyll a (CHL), summer inorganic suspended solids (ISS) and counts of benthic mayfly larvae. Constrained models forced trends in means or in both means and sampling variances to become, over time, increasingly similar to those in the positive reference area and increasingly dissimilar to those in the negative reference areas. Trends were estimated over 12- (mayflies) or 14-year sampling periods, and were evaluated using model information criteria. Based on these methods, restoration effects were observed for CHL and mayflies while evidence in favour of restoration effects on ISS was equivocal. These findings suggest that the cumulative effects of island building at relatively large spatial scales within large rivers may be estimated using data from large-scale surveillance monitoring programs. Published in 2010 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Double dose: the cumulative effect of TV viewing at home and in preschool on children's activity patterns and weight status.

Science.gov (United States)

Taverno Ross, Sharon; Dowda, Marsha; Saunders, Ruth; Pate, Russell

2013-05-01

Little is known about how screen-based sedentary behavior at home and in preschool influences children's health and activity patterns. The current study examined the individual and cumulative influence of TV viewing at home and in preschool on children's physical activity (PA) and weight status. Children (n = 339) attending 16 preschools in South Carolina were grouped into high and low TV groups based on parent report of children's TV viewing at home and director report of TV use/rules in preschool. T-tests and mixed model ANOVAs examined differences in weight status and PA (min/hr) by high and low TV groups. Results revealed that children who were classified as High TV both at home and in pre- school had significantly lower levels of moderate-to-vigorous PA compared with their Low TV counterparts (8.3 (0.3) min/hr vs. 7.6 (0.2) min/hr, p TV groups at home or in preschool when examined individually. These findings demonstrate the importance of total environmental TV exposure on preschooler's PA. Longitudinal and observational research to assess preschoolers' cumulative screen-based sedentary behavior and its relationship with PA and weight status is needed.

Integrating LANDIS model and a multi-criteria decision-making approach to evaluate cumulative effects of forest management in the Missouri Ozarks, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Zong Bo Shang; Hong S. He; Weimin Xi; Stephen R. Shifley; Brian J. Palik

2012-01-01

Public forest management requires consideration of numerous objectives including protecting ecosystem health, sustaining habitats for native communities, providing sustainable forest products, and providing noncommodity ecosystem services. It is difficult to evaluate the long-term, cumulative effects and tradeoffs these and other associated management objectives. To...

Cumulative Environmental Management Association : Wood Buffalo Region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friesen, B.

2001-01-01

The recently announced oil sands development of the Wood Buffalo Region in Alberta was the focus of this power point presentation. Both mining and in situ development is expected to total $26 billion and 2.6 million barrels per day of bitumen production. This paper described the economic, social and environmental challenges facing the resource development of this region. In addition to the proposed oil sands projects, this region will accommodate the needs of conventional oil and gas production, forestry, building of pipelines and power lines, municipal development, recreation, tourism, mining exploration and open cast mining. The Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) was inaugurated as a non-profit association in April 2000, and includes 41 members from all sectors. Its major role is to ensure a sustainable ecosystem and to avoid any cumulative impacts on wildlife. Other work underway includes the study of soil and plant species diversity, and the effects of air emissions on human health, wildlife and vegetation. The bioaccumulation of heavy metals and their impacts on surface water and fish is also under consideration to ensure the quality and quantity of surface water and ground water. 3 figs

The cumulative risk of false-positive screening results across screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roman, M., E-mail: Marta.Roman@kreftregisteret.no [Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo (Norway); Department of Women and Children’s Health, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo (Norway); Skaane, P., E-mail: PERSK@ous-hf.no [Department of Radiology, Oslo University Hospital Ullevaal, University of Oslo, Oslo (Norway); Hofvind, S., E-mail: Solveig.Hofvind@kreftregisteret.no [Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo (Norway); Oslo and Akershus University College of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Health Science, Oslo (Norway)

2014-09-15

Highlights: • We found variation in early performance measures across screening centres. • Radiologists’ performance may play a key role in the variability. • Potential to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening programs. • Continuous surveillance of screening centres and radiologists is essential. - Abstract: Background: Recall for assessment in mammographic screening entails an inevitable number of false-positive screening results. This study aimed to investigate the variation in the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result and the positive predictive value across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Methods: We studied 618,636 women aged 50–69 years who underwent 2,090,575 screening exams (1996–2010. Recall rate, positive predictive value, rate of screen-detected cancer, and the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result, without and with invasive procedures across the screening centres were calculated. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the probability of a false positive screening result and to compute the cumulative false-positive risk for up to ten biennial screening examinations. Results: The cumulative risk of a false-positive screening exam varied from 10.7% (95% CI: 9.4–12.0%) to 41.5% (95% CI: 34.1–48.9%) across screening centres, with a highest to lowest ratio of 3.9 (95% CI: 3.7–4.0). The highest to lowest ratio for the cumulative risk of undergoing an invasive procedure with a benign outcome was 4.3 (95% CI: 4.0–4.6). The positive predictive value of recall varied between 12.0% (95% CI: 11.0–12.9%) and 19.9% (95% CI: 18.3–21.5%), with a highest to lowest ratio of 1.7 (95% CI: 1.5–1.9). Conclusions: A substantial variation in the performance measures across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program was identified, despite of similar administration, procedures, and quality assurance requirements. Differences in the

The cumulative risk of false-positive screening results across screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roman, M.; Skaane, P.; Hofvind, S.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We found variation in early performance measures across screening centres. • Radiologists’ performance may play a key role in the variability. • Potential to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening programs. • Continuous surveillance of screening centres and radiologists is essential. - Abstract: Background: Recall for assessment in mammographic screening entails an inevitable number of false-positive screening results. This study aimed to investigate the variation in the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result and the positive predictive value across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Methods: We studied 618,636 women aged 50–69 years who underwent 2,090,575 screening exams (1996–2010. Recall rate, positive predictive value, rate of screen-detected cancer, and the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result, without and with invasive procedures across the screening centres were calculated. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the probability of a false positive screening result and to compute the cumulative false-positive risk for up to ten biennial screening examinations. Results: The cumulative risk of a false-positive screening exam varied from 10.7% (95% CI: 9.4–12.0%) to 41.5% (95% CI: 34.1–48.9%) across screening centres, with a highest to lowest ratio of 3.9 (95% CI: 3.7–4.0). The highest to lowest ratio for the cumulative risk of undergoing an invasive procedure with a benign outcome was 4.3 (95% CI: 4.0–4.6). The positive predictive value of recall varied between 12.0% (95% CI: 11.0–12.9%) and 19.9% (95% CI: 18.3–21.5%), with a highest to lowest ratio of 1.7 (95% CI: 1.5–1.9). Conclusions: A substantial variation in the performance measures across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program was identified, despite of similar administration, procedures, and quality assurance requirements. Differences in the

Effects of cumulative risk on behavioral and psychological well-being in first grade: moderation by neighborhood context.

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Julie; Caughy, Margaret; Nettles, Saundra M; O'Campo, Patricia J

2010-10-01

This study builds upon existing research by examining whether risk indices for child psychological well-being behave in the same way in different types of neighborhoods. Specifically, we sought to determine if neighborhood characteristics acted to exacerbate or, alternatively, to buffer risk factors at the family and/or child level. Families with a child entering first grade in Fall 2002 were recruited from Baltimore City neighborhoods, defined as census block groups. This study included 405 children, and data came from an interview with the primary caregiver and an assessment of the first grader. The dependent variables were externalizing behavior and internalizing problems. A family risk index consisting of 13 measures, and a child risk index consisting of three measures were the main independent variables of interest. We examined the effects of these indices on child psychological well-being and behavior across two neighborhood characteristics: neighborhood potential for community involvement with children and neighborhood negative social climate. Results of multivariate analyses indicated that cumulative family risk was associated with an increase in both internalizing and externalizing behavior problems. Perceived negative social climate moderated the effect of family risks on behavior problems such that more risk was associated with a larger increment in both externalizing behavior problems and psychological problems for children living in high versus low risk neighborhoods. These findings further emphasize the importance of considering neighborhood context in the study of child psychological well-being. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulants in perturbation expansions for non-equilibrium field theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fauser, R.

1995-11-01

The formulation of perturbation expansions for a quantum field theory of strongly interacting systems in a general non-equilibrium state is discussed. Non-vanishing initial correlations are included in the formulation of the perturbation expansion in terms of cumulants. The cumulants are shown to be the suitable candidate for summing up the perturbation expansion. Also a linked-cluster theorem for the perturbation series with cumulants is presented. Finally a generating functional of the perturbation series with initial correlations is studied. We apply the methods to a simple model of a fermion-boson system. (orig.)

Radionuclide transport in the vicinity of the repository and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stockman, C.T.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Shinta, A.; Smith, L.N.

2000-01-01

The following topics related to radionuclide transport in the vicinity of the repository in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant are presented: (i) mathematical description of models; (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e. epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases; (iii) construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) arising from stochastic (i.e. aleatory) uncertainty; and (iv) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for CCDFs. The presented results indicate that no releases to the accessible environment take place due to radionuclide movement through the anhydrite marker beds, through the Dewey Lake Red Beds or directly to the surface, and also that the releases to the Culebra Dolomite are small. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, the CCDFs for release to the Culebra Dolomite fall to the left of the boundary line specified in the US Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194)

Effect of Repeated/Spaced Formative Assessments on Medical School Final Exam Performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edward K. Chang

2017-06-01

Discussion: Performance on weekly formative assessments was predictive of final exam scores. Struggling medical students will benefit from extra cumulative practice exams while students who are excelling do not need extra practice.

Parenting intervention and the caregiving environment : cumulative risk and process evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stolk, Mirjam Neeltje

2007-01-01

The objective of the research described in this thesis was to study single and cumulative family risk in relation to early childhood externalizing problems and the effectiveness of a parenting intervention program. The Video-feedback Intervention to promote Positive Parenting and Sensitive

The cumulative effect of smoking at age 50, 60, and 70 on functional ability at age 75

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Støvring, Nina; Avlund, Kirsten; Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten

2004-01-01

of accumulating the smoking habits over the examinations. Cumulated former smokers have a larger risk of having reduced functional ability at age 75 (OR: 1.35 (1.13-1.61)) compared with never smokers. The odds ratios of reduced functional ability were 2.46 (1.44-4.17) among cumulated smokers of 1-14 grams......AIMS: As elderly people form a steadily growing part of the population in most parts of the world we are in need of knowledge of the influence of modifiable lifestyle factors on functional ability late in life. This study aims to examine the cumulative impact of smoking from age 50 to 70...... on functional ability at age 75. METHODS: 387 men and women born in 1914 and living in seven municipalities in the western part of the County of Copenhagen were followed for 25 years with examinations in 1964, 1974, 1984, and 1989. Associations between smoking and functional ability were examined using multiple...

Cumulative effect of structural nonlinearities: chaotic dynamics of cantilever beam system with impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Emans, Joseph; Wiercigroch, Marian; Krivtsov, Anton M.

2005-01-01

The nonlinear analysis of a common beam system was performed, and the method for such, outlined and presented. Nonlinear terms for the governing dynamic equations were extracted and the behaviour of the system was investigated. The analysis was carried out with and without physically realistic parameters, to show the characteristics of the system, and the physically realistic responses. Also, the response as part of a more complex system was considered, in order to investigate the cumulative effects of nonlinearities. Chaos, as well as periodic motion was found readily for the physically unrealistic parameters. In addition, nonlinear behaviour such as co-existence of attractors was found even at modest oscillation levels during investigations with realistic parameters. When considered as part of a more complex system with further nonlinearities, comparisons with linear beam theory show the classical approach to be lacking in accuracy of qualitative predictions, even at weak oscillations

CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

Science.gov (United States)

Bowerman, P. N.

1994-01-01

The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

Cumulative Effective Hölder Exponent Based Indicator for Real-Time Fetal Heartbeat Analysis during Labour

Science.gov (United States)

Struzik, Zbigniew R.; van Wijngaarden, Willem J.

We introduce a special purpose cumulative indicator, capturing in real time the cumulative deviation from the reference level of the exponent h (local roughness, Hölder exponent) of the fetal heartbeat during labour. We verify that the indicator applied to the variability component of the heartbeat coincides with the fetal outcome as determined by blood samples. The variability component is obtained from running real time decomposition of fetal heartbeat into independent components using an adaptation of an oversampled Haar wavelet transform. The particular filters used and resolutions applied are motivated by obstetricial insight/practice. The methodology described has the potential for real-time monitoring of the fetus during labour and for the prediction of the fetal outcome, allerting the attending staff in the case of (threatening) hypoxia.

Experimental investigation of slamming impact acted on flat bottom bodies and cumulative damage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyunkyoung Shin

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Most offshore structures including offshore wind turbines, ships, etc. suffer from the impulsive pressure loads due to slamming phenomena in rough waves. The effects of elasticity & plasticity on such slamming loads are investigated through wet free drop test results of several steel unstiffened flat bottom bodies in the rectangular water tank. Also, their cumulative deformations by consecutively repetitive free drops from 1000 mm to 2000 mm in height are measured. Keywords: Slamming phenomena, Impulsive pressure load, Wet free drop test, Flat bottom body, Cumulative damage

Twenty-years of lung transplantation in Taiwan: Effects of cumulative institutional experience on early outcomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shun-Mao Yang

2017-11-01

Conclusion: Although the results were undesirable in the first decade of the transplant program, the cumulative institutional experience led to significantly improved outcomes in the second decade of the transplant program.

Threats to biodiversity from cumulative human impacts in one of North America's last wildlife frontiers.

Science.gov (United States)

Shackelford, Nancy; Standish, Rachel J; Ripple, William; Starzomski, Brian M

2017-10-25

Land-use change is the largest proximate threat to biodiversity yet remains one of the most complex to manage. In British Columbia (BC), where large mammals roam extensive tracts of intact habitat, continued land-use development is of global concern. Extant mammal diversity in BC is unrivalled in North America owing, in part, to its unique position at the intersection of alpine, boreal, and temperate biomes. Despite high conservation values, understanding of cumulative ecological impacts from human development is limited. Using cumulative-effects-assessment (CEA) methods, we assessed the current human footprint over 16 regional ecosystems and 7 large mammal species. Using historical and current range estimates of the mammals, we investigated impacts of human land use on species' persistence. For ecosystems, we found that bunchgrass, coastal Douglas fir, and ponderosa pine have been subjected to over 50% land-use conversion, and over 85% of their spatial extent has undergone either direct or estimated indirect impacts. Of the mammals we considered, wolves were the least affected by land conversion, yet all species had reduced ranges compared with historical estimates. We found evidence of a hard trade-off between development and conservation, most clearly for mammals with large distributions and ecosystems with high levels of conversion. Rather than serve as a platform to monitor species decline, we strongly advocate these data be used to inform land-use planning and to assess current conservation efforts. More generally, CEAs offer a robust tool to inform wildlife and habitat conservation at scale. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Cumulative effects of Te precipitates in CdZnTe radiation detectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bolotnikov, A.E.; Camarda, G.S.; Carini, G.A.; Cui, Y.; Li, L.; James, R.B.

2007-01-01

High-quality radiation detector-grade CdZnTe material is free from large-scale defects, such as grain boundaries, twins, and large Te or Cd inclusions (>50 μm), although it usually contains high concentrations of uniformly distributed Te inclusions and precipitates, typically of ∼20-μm-diameter size or smaller. We address the effects of the small-size Te precipitates on charge collection in CZT detectors, the significance of which is not yet well characterized. The strong correlation that we earlier found between the high-resolution X-ray maps and IR images proved that even small Te precipitates can trap substantial fractions of charge from the electron cloud. In this work, we modeled the transport of an electron cloud across idealized CZT devices containing Te precipitates to demonstrate that their cumulative effect can explain the degradation of energy resolution and the detection efficiency losses observed in actual CZT devices. Due to lack of experimental data on how the Te precipitates interact with an electron cloud, we developed a simplified (phenomenological) model based on the geometrical aspects of the problem. Despite its simplicity, the model correctly reproduced many experimental facts and gave quantitative predictions on the extent to which the presence of Te precipitates and inclusions can be tolerated. The broadening of the electron cloud due to repulsion and diffusion is at the core of the problem, making even low concentrations of small precipitates important in the device's performance

Does the acute pulmonary response to ozone depend on the cumulative exposure?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2008-01-01

In experimental conditions, repeated ozone exposure induces adaptive phenomena that attenuate lung function and inflammatory responses. But this study did not find that lifetime cumulative exposure had a protective effect; indeed, it found the contrary. (author)

Cumulative exposure to carbon monoxide during the day

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joumard, R. (INRETS, 69 - Bron (FR))

The carbon monoxide, CO, has the advantage of being very easily and accurately measured under various conditions. In addition, it allows the translation of CO concentrations into their biological effects. The cumulative CO exposure should be considered according to current environment conditions during a given period of life, e.g. the day. In addition, the translation of concentrations and exposure times of CO fixed on blood haemoglobine (carboxyhaemoglobine) depends on physiological factors such as age, size, sex, or physical activity. This paper gives some examples of CO exposure translated into curves of carboxyhaemoglobine: case of 92 persons whose schedule was studied in details, of customs officers whose exposure was measured during one week, or other theoretical cases. In all the cases studied, smoking is by far the first factor of pollution by carbon monoxide. If not considering this case, the CO contents observed are preoccupying for sensitive subjects (in particular children) only in very rare cases. Furthermore, this approach allows the assessment of maximal allowable concentrations during specific exposures (work, e.g. in a tunnel) by integrating them into normal life conditions and population current exposure.

Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

Unified framework for triaxial accelerometer-based fall event detection and classification using cumulants and hierarchical decision tree classifier.

Science.gov (United States)

Kambhampati, Satya Samyukta; Singh, Vishal; Manikandan, M Sabarimalai; Ramkumar, Barathram

2015-08-01

In this Letter, the authors present a unified framework for fall event detection and classification using the cumulants extracted from the acceleration (ACC) signals acquired using a single waist-mounted triaxial accelerometer. The main objective of this Letter is to find suitable representative cumulants and classifiers in effectively detecting and classifying different types of fall and non-fall events. It was discovered that the first level of the proposed hierarchical decision tree algorithm implements fall detection using fifth-order cumulants and support vector machine (SVM) classifier. In the second level, the fall event classification algorithm uses the fifth-order cumulants and SVM. Finally, human activity classification is performed using the second-order cumulants and SVM. The detection and classification results are compared with those of the decision tree, naive Bayes, multilayer perceptron and SVM classifiers with different types of time-domain features including the second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-order cumulants and the signal magnitude vector and signal magnitude area. The experimental results demonstrate that the second- and fifth-order cumulant features and SVM classifier can achieve optimal detection and classification rates of above 95%, as well as the lowest false alarm rate of 1.03%.

Cumulative occupational shoulder exposures and surgery for subacromial impingement syndrome: a nationwide Danish cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Dalbøge, Annett; Frost, Poul; Andersen, Johan Hviid; Svendsen, Susanne Wulff

2014-11-01

The primary aim was to examine exposure-response relationships between cumulative occupational shoulder exposures and surgery for subacromial impingement syndrome (SIS), and to compare sex-specific exposure-response relationships. The secondary aim was to examine the time window of relevant exposures. We conducted a nationwide register study of all persons born in Denmark (1933-1977), who had at least 5 years of full-time employment. In the follow-up period (2003-2008), we identified first-time events of surgery for SIS. Cumulative exposure estimates for a 10-year exposure time window with a 1-year lag time were obtained by linking occupational codes with a job exposure matrix. The exposure estimates were expressed as, for example, arm-elevation-years in accordance with the pack-year concept of tobacco consumption. We used a multivariable logistic regression technique equivalent to discrete survival analysis. The adjusted OR (ORadj) increased to a maximum of 2.1 for arm-elevation-years, repetition-years and force-years, and to 1.5 for hand-arm-vibration-years. Sex-specific exposure-response relationships were similar for men and women, when assessed using a relative risk scale. The ORadj increased gradually with the number of years contributing to the cumulative exposure estimates. The excess fraction was 24%. Cumulative occupational shoulder exposures carried an increase in risk of surgery for SIS with similar exposure-response curves for men and women. The risk of surgery for SIS increased gradually, when the period of exposure assessment was extended. In the general working population, a substantial fraction of all first-time operations for SIS could be related to occupational exposures. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The more you play, the more aggressive you become: A long-term experimental study of cumulative violent video game effects on hostile expectations and aggressive behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hasan, Y.; Bègue, L.; Scharkow, M.; Bushman, B.J.

2012-01-01

It is well established that violent video games increase aggression. There is a stronger evidence of short-term violent video game effects than of long-term effects. The present experiment tests the cumulative long-term effects of violent video games on hostile expectations and aggressive behavior

Family cumulative risk and at-risk kindergarteners' social competence: the mediating role of parent representations of the attachment relationship.

Science.gov (United States)

Sparks, Lauren A; Trentacosta, Christopher J; Owusu, Erika; McLear, Caitlin; Smith-Darden, Joanne

2018-08-01

Secure attachment relationships have been linked to social competence in at-risk children. In the current study, we examined the role of parent secure base scripts in predicting at-risk kindergarteners' social competence. Parent representations of secure attachment were hypothesized to mediate the relationship between lower family cumulative risk and children's social competence. Participants included 106 kindergarteners and their primary caregivers recruited from three urban charter schools serving low-income families as a part of a longitudinal study. Lower levels of cumulative risk predicted greater secure attachment representations in parents, and scores on the secure base script assessment predicted children's social competence. An indirect relationship between lower cumulative risk and kindergarteners' social competence via parent secure base script scores was also supported. Parent script-based representations of the attachment relationship appear to be an important link between lower levels of cumulative risk and low-income kindergarteners' social competence. Implications of these findings for future interventions are discussed.

A Framework for Treating Cumulative Trauma with Art Therapy

Science.gov (United States)

Naff, Kristina

2014-01-01

Cumulative trauma is relatively undocumented in art therapy practice, although there is growing evidence that art therapy provides distinct benefits for resolving various traumas. This qualitative study proposes an art therapy treatment framework for cumulative trauma derived from semi-structured interviews with three art therapists and artistic…

Long-term cumulative depressive symptom burden and risk of cognitive decline and dementia among very old women.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeki Al Hazzouri, Adina; Vittinghoff, Eric; Byers, Amy; Covinsky, Ken; Blazer, Dan; Diem, Susan; Ensrud, Kristine E; Yaffe, Kristine

2014-05-01

Depressive symptoms and cognitive outcomes are strongly interrelated. Despite that rates of depressive symptoms fluctuate during late life, little is known about the impact of long-term cumulative depressive symptom burden on cognitive decline and dementia in older adults. This study examines the association of nearly 20 years of cumulative depressive symptoms with cognitive outcomes in a cohort of older women. We assessed depressive symptoms in 7,240 women using the Geriatric Depression scale (GDS) at serial visits. We used a Poisson model with random slopes to estimate GDS trajectories for each participant from baseline to death or end of follow-up, and then characterized depressive symptom burden by quartile of the area under the curve. We assessed cognitive outcomes using repeated measures of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Trails B score over 20 years, Year-20 neuropsychological test battery, and adjudicated dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Adjusting for potential confounders, compared with women in the lowest quartile of cumulative depressive symptoms burden, women in the highest quartile had 21% more MMSE errors over time (95% CI = 17%, 26%), 20% worse Trails B score over time (95% CI = 17%, 23%), worse scores on most of the Year-20 cognitive tests, and a twofold greater likelihood of developing dementia or MCI (95% CI = 1.48, 3.11). Long-term cumulative depressive symptom burden was associated with cognitive decline and risk of dementia or MCI. Older adults with a history of depression should be closely monitored for recurrent episodes or unresolved depressive symptoms as well as any cognitive deficits.

Cumulative query method for influenza surveillance using search engine data.

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Dong-Woo; Jo, Min-Woo; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Shin, Soo-Yong; Lee, JaeHo; Yu, Maengsoo; Kim, Won Young; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Lee, Sang-Il

2014-12-16

Internet search queries have become an important data source in syndromic surveillance system. However, there is currently no syndromic surveillance system using Internet search query data in South Korea. The objective of this study was to examine correlations between our cumulative query method and national influenza surveillance data. Our study was based on the local search engine, Daum (approximately 25% market share), and influenza-like illness (ILI) data from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A quota sampling survey was conducted with 200 participants to obtain popular queries. We divided the study period into two sets: Set 1 (the 2009/10 epidemiological year for development set 1 and 2010/11 for validation set 1) and Set 2 (2010/11 for development Set 2 and 2011/12 for validation Set 2). Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated between the Daum data and the ILI data for the development set. We selected the combined queries for which the correlation coefficients were .7 or higher and listed them in descending order. Then, we created a cumulative query method n representing the number of cumulative combined queries in descending order of the correlation coefficient. In validation set 1, 13 cumulative query methods were applied, and 8 had higher correlation coefficients (min=.916, max=.943) than that of the highest single combined query. Further, 11 of 13 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 4 of 13 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. In validation set 2, 8 of 15 cumulative query methods showed higher correlation coefficients (min=.975, max=.987) than that of the highest single combined query. All 15 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 6 of 15 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. Cumulative query method showed relatively higher correlation with national influenza surveillance data than combined queries in the development and validation set.

Are Pressure Time Integral and Cumulative Plantar Stress Related to First Metatarsophalangeal Joint Pain? Results From a Community-Based Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rao, Smita; Douglas Gross, K; Niu, Jingbo; Nevitt, Michael C; Lewis, Cora E; Torner, James C; Hietpas, Jean; Felson, David; Hillstrom, Howard J

2016-09-01

To examine the relationship between plantar stress over a step, cumulative plantar stress over a day, and first metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joint pain among older adults. Plantar stress and first MTP pain were assessed within the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study. All included participants were asked if they had pain, aching, or stiffness at the first MTP joint on most days for the past 30 days. Pressure time integral (PTI) was quantified as participants walked on a pedobarograph, and mean steps per day were obtained using an accelerometer. Cumulative plantar stress was calculated as the product of regional PTI and mean steps per day. Quintiles of hallucal and second metatarsal PTI and cumulative plantar stress were generated. The relationship between predictors and the odds ratio of first MTP pain was assessed using a logistic regression model. Feet in the quintile with the lowest hallux PTI had 2.14 times increased odds of first MTP pain (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.42-3.25, P pain (95% CI 1.01-2.23, P = 0.042). Cumulative plantar stress was unassociated with first MTP pain. Lower PTI was modestly associated with increased prevalence of frequent first MTP pain at both the hallux and second metatarsal. Lower plantar loading may indicate the presence of an antalgic gait strategy and may reflect an attempt at pain avoidance. The lack of association with cumulative plantar stress may suggest that patients do not limit their walking as a pain-avoidance mechanism. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

High cumulative insulin exposure : a risk factor of atherosclerosis in type 1 diabetes?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Muis, MJ; Bots, ML; Bilo, HJG; Hoogma, RPLM; Hoekstra, JBL; Grobbee, DE; Stolk, RP

Background: Since insulin therapy might have an atherogenic effect, we studied the relationship between cumulative insulin dose and atherosclerosis in type 1 diabetes. We have focused on patients with type 1 diabetes instead of type 2 diabetes to minimise the effect of insulin resistance as a

High cumulative insulin exposure: a risk factor of atherosclerosis in type 1 diabetes?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Muis, Marian J.; Bots, Michiel L.; Bilo, Henk J. G.; Hoogma, Roel P. L. M.; Hoekstra, Joost B. L.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Stolk, Ronald P.

2005-01-01

Background: Since insulin therapy might have an atherogenic effect, we studied the relationship between cumulative insulin dose and atherosclerosis in type 1 diabetes. We have focused on patients with type 1 diabetes instead of type 2 diabetes to minimise the effect of insulin resistance as a

Pharmacoepidemiology of opiate use in the neonatal ICU: Increasing cumulative doses and iatrogenic opiate withdrawal.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Tamorah; Erfe, Betty Luan; Ezell, Tarrah; Gauda, Estelle

2015-01-01

Neonatal intensive care unit (ICU) care involves use of opiates to treat postoperative, ventilated, or chronically ill infants. Opiates provide necessary analgesia and sedation, but the morbidities include prolonged neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) and extended length of stay for dose tapering. Our objective was to quantify trends in opiate exposure in a tertiary care NICU. The authors hypothesize that medical opiate exposure and resultant ICU-acquired NAS would increase over time. Retrospective cross-sectional cohort study. Tertiary care NICU. High-risk inborn infants admitted in fiscal years 2003-2004, 2007-2008, and 2010-2011. Average cumulative morphine exposure (all opiate doses converted to morphine equivalents) per time epoch was compared in cohorts of clinically similar infants. Linear regression was used to assess the primary outcome, assessing changes in opiate exposure over time. Sixty-three infants were included in the final analysis. The primary analysis assessing cumulative opiate exposure per infant showed an increase of 134 mg per time epoch (95% CI-12, 279 mg, p-value 0.071). There was a statistically significant increase in the percent of infants with a diagnosis of iatrogenic NAS, increasing from 9 to 35 to 50 percent (p-value 0.012).

Modelling the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards for river basin management using a GIS-based multicriteria decision approach

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Wu, Ju-Yu; Hung, Chih-Hsuan

2017-04-01

1. Background Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable areas of the world to climate-related hazards and extremes due to rapid urbanization and over-development in hazard-prone areas. It is thus increasingly recognized that the management of land use and reduction of hazard risk are inextricably linked. This is especially critical from the perspective of integrated river basin management. A range of studies has targeted existing vulnerability assessments. However, limited attention has been paid to the cumulative effects of multiple vulnerable factors and their dynamics faced by local communities. This study proposes a novel methodology to access the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and to examine the relationship between the attraction factors relevant to the general process of urbanization and vulnerability variability with a focus on a river basin management unit. 2. Methods and data The methods applied in this study include three steps. First, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) approach, a Cumulative Vulnerability Assessment Framework (CVAF) is built with a goal to characterize and compare the vulnerability to climate-related hazards within river basin regions based on a composition of multiple indicators. We organize these indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard exposure; (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptive capacity. Second, the CVAF is applied by combining a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique with a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess and map the changing cumulative vulnerability, comparing conditions in 1996 and 2006 in Danshui River Basin, Taiwan. Third, to examine the affecting factors of vulnerability changing, we develop a Vulnerability Changing Model (VCM) using four attraction factors to reflect how the process of urban developments leads to vulnerability changing. The factors are transport networks, land uses

Cumulative Energy Demands (CED) and Cumulative Emissions of PV systems in the European Union: Methodological aspects; Methodische Aspekte zu kumulierten Energieaufwendungen und Emissionen bei Photovoltaikanlagen in der Europaeischen Union

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guerzenich, D.

2002-07-01

The present dissertation investigates options to save primary energy and emissions when manufacturing and using photovoltaic systems in regard to the concept of sustainability. Valuation is done by use of Cumulative Energy Demands (CED) and Cumulative Emissions as well as yearly substituted primary energy and avoided emissions. The main aim is to evaluate the consequences of national differences in electricity supply within the European Community upon the results of an ecological assessment. Therefore seven representative countries were selected within the EU. The most common photovoltaic systems presently and in the near future are monocrystalline- (sc-), multicrystalline- (pc-) and amorphous-silicon (a-Si) based. Comparison of production of these systems - with equal peak power - shows, that CED for production of these systems is lowest with pc-Si, followed by a-Si and sc-Si. The investigated countries are divided into two groups. One group - consisting of Austria and Sweden - with lower CEDs than the other one, whereas the CEDs in the second group approximately lie within the same margin. The Cumulative CO{sub 2}-Emissions show their lowest values not only in Austria and Sweden but also in France, while Cumulative NO{sub x}- and SO{sub 2}-Emissions tend to result in lower values when production takes place in Sweden or France. Especially pc-Si-Systems are found to give best results, whereas sc-Si-Systems lie at the end of the line. The use of the PC-Systems results in highest primary energy substitution in Spain and highest avoided emissions in Italy. In conclusion a comparison between production and use of the systems as well as calculation of energy payback time and emission related payback time is done. (orig.)

Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary, Annual Report 2005

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Thom, Ronald M.; Borde, Amy B.; Roegner, G. C.; Whiting, Allan H.; Johnson, Gary E.; Dawley, Earl; Skalski, John R.; Vavrinec, John; Ebberts, Blaine D.

2006-12-20

This report is the second annual report of a six-year project to evaluate the cumulative effects of habitat restoration projects in the Columbia River Estuary, conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Marine Sciences Laboratory, NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service Pt. Adams Biological Field Station, and the Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce for the US Army Corps of Engineers. In 2005, baseline data were collected on two restoration sites and two associated reference sites in the Columbia River estuary. The sites represent two habitat types of the estuary--brackish marsh and freshwater swamp--that have sustained substantial losses in area and that may play important roles for salmonids. Baseline data collected included vegetation and elevation surveys, above and below-ground biomass, water depth and temperature, nutrient flux, fish species composition, and channel geometry. Following baseline data collection, three kinds of restoration actions for hydrological reconnection were implemented in several locations on the sites: tidegate replacements (2) at Vera Slough, near the city of Astoria in Oregon State, and culvert replacements (2) and dike breaches (3) at Kandoll Farm in the Grays River watershed in Washington State. Limited post-restoration data were collected: photo points, nutrient flux, water depth and temperature, and channel cross-sections. In subsequent work, this and additional post-restoration data will be used in conjunction with data from other sites to estimate net effects of hydrological reconnection restoration projects throughout the estuary. This project is establishing methods for evaluating the effectiveness of individual projects and a framework for assessing estuary-wide cumulative effects including a protocol manual for monitoring restoration and reference sites.

Cumulative life course impairment: the imprint of psoriasis on the patient's life.

Science.gov (United States)

Ros, S; Puig, L; Carrascosa, J M

2014-03-01

We now realize that moderate to severe psoriasis takes a toll on the patient's overall health beyond the effects on the skin itself, and so we use quality of life (QOL) measures to assess how the individual perceives both the impact of disease and the response to treatment. However, available instruments give us a cross-sectional assessment of QOL at a specific moment, and we lack longitudinal studies of how a disease affects each and every aspect of a patient's life over time-including physical and psychological wellbeing, social and emotional relationships, vocational and employment decisions, and how they change the individual's outlook. A new concept, cumulative life course impairment (CLCI), captures the notion of the ongoing effect of a disease, providing us with a new paradigm for assessing the impact of psoriasis on QOL. Unlike conventional measurement tools and scales, which focus on a specific moment in the patient's life, a CLCI tool investigates the repercussions of disease that accumulate over a lifetime, interfering with the individual's full potential development and altering perspectives that might have been different had psoriasis not been present. The accumulated impact will vary from patient to patient depending on circumstances that interact differently over time as the burden of stigmatization, concomitant physical and psychological conditions associated with psoriasis, coping mechanisms, and external factors come into play and are modulated by the individual's personality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. and AEDV. All rights reserved.

Playing It Safe: Assessing Cumulative Impact and Social Vulnerability through an Environmental Justice Screening Method in the South Coast Air Basin, California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Justin Scoggins

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Regulatory agencies, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA and state authorities like the California Air Resources Board (CARB, have sought to address the concerns of environmental justice (EJ advocates who argue that chemical-by-chemical and source-specific assessments of potential health risks of environmental hazards do not reflect the multiple environmental and social stressors faced by vulnerable communities. We propose an Environmental Justice Screening Method (EJSM as a relatively simple, flexible and transparent way to examine the relative rank of cumulative impacts and social vulnerability within metropolitan regions and determine environmental justice areas based on more than simply the demographics of income and race. We specifically organize 23 indicator metrics into three categories: (1 hazard proximity and land use; (2 air pollution exposure and estimated health risk; and (3 social and health vulnerability. For hazard proximity, the EJSM uses GIS analysis to create a base map by intersecting land use data with census block polygons, and calculates hazard proximity measures based on locations within various buffer distances. These proximity metrics are then summarized to the census tract level where they are combined with tract centroid-based estimates of pollution exposure and health risk and socio-economic status (SES measures. The result is a cumulative impacts (CI score for ranking neighborhoods within regions that can inform diverse stakeholders seeking to identify local areas that might need targeted regulatory strategies to address environmental justice concerns.

Super-Resolution Algorithm in Cumulative Virtual Blanking

Science.gov (United States)

Montillet, J. P.; Meng, X.; Roberts, G. W.; Woolfson, M. S.

2008-11-01

The proliferation of mobile devices and the emergence of wireless location-based services have generated consumer demand for precise location. In this paper, the MUSIC super-resolution algorithm is applied to time delay estimation for positioning purposes in cellular networks. The goal is to position a Mobile Station with UMTS technology. The problem of Base-Stations herability is solved using Cumulative Virtual Blanking. A simple simulator is presented using DS-SS signal. The results show that MUSIC algorithm improves the time delay estimation in both the cases whether or not Cumulative Virtual Blanking was carried out.

Analysis of LDPE-ZnO-clay nanocomposites using novel cumulative rheological parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Kracalik, Milan

2017-05-01

Polymer nanocomposites exhibit complex rheological behaviour due to physical and also possibly chemical interactions between individual phases. Up to now, rheology of dispersive polymer systems has been usually described by evaluation of viscosity curve (shear thinning phenomenon), storage modulus curve (formation of secondary plateau) or plotting information about dumping behaviour (e.g. Van Gurp-Palmen-plot, comparison of loss factor tan δ). On the contrary to evaluation of damping behaviour, values of cot δ were calculated and called as "storage factor", analogically to loss factor. Then values of storage factor were integrated over specific frequency range and called as "cumulative storage factor". In this contribution, LDPE-ZnO-clay nanocomposites with different dispersion grades (physical networks) have been prepared and characterized by both conventional as well as novel analysis approach. Next to cumulative storage factor, further cumulative rheological parameters like cumulative complex viscosity, cumulative complex modulus or cumulative storage modulus have been introduced.

Assessment of cumulative damage by using ultrasonic C-scan on carbon fiber/epoxy composites under thermal cycling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcos Yutaka Shiino

2012-08-01

Full Text Available In recent years, structural composites manufactured by carbon fiber/epoxy laminates have been employed in large scale in aircraft industries. These structures require high strength under severe temperature changes of -56° until 80 °C. Regarding this scenario, the aim of this research was to reproduce thermal stress in the laminate plate developed by temperature changes and tracking possible cumulative damages on the laminate using ultrasonic C-scan inspection. The evaluation was based on attenuation signals and the C-scan map of the composite plate. The carbon fiber/epoxy plain weave laminate underwent temperatures of -60° to 80 °C, kept during 10 minutes and repeated for 1000, 2000, 3000 and 4000 times. After 1000 cycles, the specimens were inspected by C-scanning. A few changes in the laminate were observed using the inspection methodology only in specimens cycled 3000 times, or so. According to the found results, the used temperature range did not present enough conditions to cumulative damage in this type of laminate, which is in agreement with the macro - and micromechanical theory.

Cumulative hierarchies and computability over universes of sets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Domenico Cantone

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Various metamathematical investigations, beginning with Fraenkel’s historical proof of the independence of the axiom of choice, called for suitable definitions of hierarchical universes of sets. This led to the discovery of such important cumulative structures as the one singled out by von Neumann (generally taken as the universe of all sets and Godel’s universe of the so-called constructibles. Variants of those are exploited occasionally in studies concerning the foundations of analysis (according to Abraham Robinson’s approach, or concerning non-well-founded sets. We hence offer a systematic presentation of these many structures, partly motivated by their relevance and pervasiveness in mathematics. As we report, numerous properties of hierarchy-related notions such as rank, have been verified with the assistance of the ÆtnaNova proof-checker.Through SETL and Maple implementations of procedures which effectively handle the Ackermann’s hereditarily finite sets, we illustrate a particularly significant case among those in which the entities which form a universe of sets can be algorithmically constructed and manipulated; hereby, the fruitful bearing on pure mathematics of cumulative set hierarchies ramifies into the realms of theoretical computer science and algorithmics.

Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Michael

2016-06-01

Jun 1, 2016 ... as backdrop in GIS environment. Positional error of ... integrated dataset obviously bore the cumulative effect of the input datasets. ... change. The shoreline, which is the interface between land ... modelling, which enables future shoreline change trend to ..... as gaps due to cloud cover and limitation of the.

Cumulative glycemia and microangiopathy in subjects with impaired glucose regulation in the Inter99 study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Munch, Inger Christine; Larsen, Michael; Kessel, Line

2011-01-01

.8% (CI(95) 6.8-17.1%) in subjects with screen-detected diabetes compared to normoglycemic subjects, adjusted for age, sex, and smoking. The prevalences of microalbuminuria and retinopathy were significantly increased in subjects with screen-detected diabetes after adjusting for age, sex and systolic...... in subjects with abnormal glucose metabolism, most prominently in subjects with IFG+IGT and in subjects with screen-detected diabetes. These results provide the first objective evidence that cumulative glycemic load is increased at the earliest stage of impaired glucose regulation.......AIMS: To assess cumulative glycemia, microvascular characteristics, and associated risk factors for diabetes in subjects with impaired glucose regulation. METHODS: Cross-sectional, population-based study comprising systemic characteristics in 6487 participants and ocular characteristics in 970...

Expansion formulae for characteristics of cumulative cost in finite horizon production models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ayhan, H.; Schlegel, S.

2001-01-01

We consider the expected value and the tail probability of cumulative shortage and holding cost (i.e. the probability that cumulative cost is more than a certain value) in finite horizon production models. An exact expression is provided for the expected value of the cumulative cost for general

Cumulative Trauma Among Mayas Living in Southeast Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

Millender, Eugenia I; Lowe, John

2017-06-01

Mayas, having experienced genocide, exile, and severe poverty, are at high risk for the consequences of cumulative trauma that continually resurfaces through current fear of an uncertain future. Little is known about the mental health and alcohol use status of this population. This correlational study explored t/he relationship of cumulative trauma as it relates to social determinants of health (years in the United States, education, health insurance status, marital status, and employment), psychological health (depression symptoms), and health behaviors (alcohol use) of 102 Guatemalan Mayas living in Southeast Florida. The results of this study indicated that, as specific social determinants of health and cumulative trauma increased, depression symptoms (particularly among women) and the risk for harmful alcohol use (particularly among men) increased. Identifying risk factors at an early stage before serious disease or problems are manifest provides room for early screening leading to early identification, early treatment, and better outcomes.

Language Delay in Severely Neglected Children: A Cumulative or Specific Effect of Risk Factors?

Science.gov (United States)

Sylvestre, Audette; Merette, Chantal

2010-01-01

Objectives: This research sought to determine if the language delay (LD) of severely neglected children under 3 years old was better explained by a cumulative risk model or by the specificity of risk factors. The objective was also to identify the risk factors with the strongest impact on LD among various biological, psychological, and…

In vivo measurements of lead-210 for assessing cumulative radon exposure in uranium miners

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guilmette, R.A.; Laurer, G.R.; Lambert, W.E.; Gilliland, F.D.

1995-01-01

It has long been recognized that a major contributor to the uncertainty in risk analysis of lung cancer in uranium and other hard rock miners is the estimation of total radon progeny exposure of individual miners under study. These uncertainties arise from the fact that only a limited number of measurements of airborne 222 Rn progeny concentrations were made in the mines during the times that the miners were being exposed, and that dosimeters capable of integrating the Rn progeny exposures of the miners did not exist. Historically, the cumulative exposures for individual uranium and other hard rock miners have been calculated by combining the employee's work history, which may or may not have included time spent at different jobs within the mines and at different locations within the mines, with whatever periodic measurements of Rn and Rn progeny were available. The amount and quality of the measurement data varied enormously from mine to mine and from population to population. Because the quality of the exposure data collected during the period of active mining in the United STates cannot now be altered substantially, significant improvement in individual miner exposure estimates is only likely to be achieved if a new cumulative exposure metric is developed and implemented. The decay chain of Rn includes the production of 210 Pb, which can accumulate in the skeleton in amounts proportional to the intake of Rn progeny. We hypothesize that the in vivo measurement of 210 Pb in the skulls of miners will provide such a metric. In summary, the primary purpose of this pilot study to demonstrate the feasibility of measuring 210 Pb in the heads of former uranium miners has been accomplished

The cumulative burden of surviving childhood cancer: an initial report from the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (SJLIFE).

Science.gov (United States)

Bhakta, Nickhill; Liu, Qi; Ness, Kirsten K; Baassiri, Malek; Eissa, Hesham; Yeo, Frederick; Chemaitilly, Wassim; Ehrhardt, Matthew J; Bass, Johnnie; Bishop, Michael W; Shelton, Kyla; Lu, Lu; Huang, Sujuan; Li, Zhenghong; Caron, Eric; Lanctot, Jennifer; Howell, Carrie; Folse, Timothy; Joshi, Vijaya; Green, Daniel M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Armstrong, Gregory T; Krull, Kevin R; Brinkman, Tara M; Khan, Raja B; Srivastava, Deo K; Hudson, Melissa M; Yasui, Yutaka; Robison, Leslie L

2017-12-09

Survivors of childhood cancer develop early and severe chronic health conditions (CHCs). A quantitative landscape of morbidity of survivors, however, has not been described. We aimed to describe the cumulative burden of curative cancer therapy in a clinically assessed ageing population of long-term survivors of childhood cancer. The St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (SJLIFE) retrospectively collected data on CHCs in all patients treated for childhood cancer at the St Jude Children's Research Hospital who survived 10 years or longer from initial diagnosis and were 18 years or older as of June 30, 2015. Age-matched and sex-frequency-matched community controls were used for comparison. 21 treatment exposure variables were included in the analysis, with data abstracted from medical records. 168 CHCs for all participants were graded for severity using a modified Common Terminology Criteria of Adverse Events. Multiple imputation with predictive mean matching was used for missing occurrences and grades of CHCs in the survivors who were not clinically evaluable. Mean cumulative count was used for descriptive cumulative burden analysis and marked-point-process regression was used for inferential cumulative burden analysis. Of 5522 patients treated for childhood cancer at St Jude Children's Research Hospital who had complete records, survived 10 years or longer, and were 18 years or older at time of study, 3010 (54·5%) were alive, had enrolled, and had had prospective clinical assessment. 2512 (45·5%) of the 5522 patients were not clinically evaluable. The cumulative incidence of CHCs at age 50 years was 99·9% (95% CI 99·9-99·9) for grade 1-5 CHCs and 96·0% (95% CI 95·3-96·8%) for grade 3-5 CHCs. By age 50 years, a survivor had experienced, on average, 17·1 (95% CI 16·2-18·1) CHCs of any grade, of which 4·7 (4·6-4·9) were CHCs of grade 3-5. The cumulative burden in matched community controls of grade 1-5 CHCs was 9·2 (95% CI 7·9-10·6; pgrade 3-5 CHCs was 2·3 (1

Impact on Medical Cost, Cumulative Survival, and Cost-Effectiveness of Adding Rituximab to First-Line Chemotherapy for Follicular Lymphoma in Elderly Patients: An Observational Cohort Study Based on SEER-Medicare

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Griffiths, R. I.; Gleeson, M. L.; Danese, M. D.; Griffiths, R. I.; Mikhael, J.

2012-01-01

Rituximab improves survival in follicular lymphoma (FL), but is considerably more expensive than conventional chemotherapy. We estimated the total direct medical costs, cumulative survival, and cost-effectiveness of adding rituximab to first-line chemotherapy for FL, based on a single source of data representing routine practice in the elderly. Using surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) registry data plus Medicare claims, we identified 1,117 FL patients who received first-line CHOP (cyclophosphamide (C), doxorubicin, vincristine (V), and prednisone (P)) or CVP +/− rituximab. Multivariate regression was used to estimate adjusted cumulative cost and survival differences between the two groups over four years after beginning treatment. The median age was 73 years (minimum 66 years), 56% had stage III-IV disease, and 67% received rituximab. Adding rituximab to first-line chemotherapy was associated with higher adjusted incremental total cost ($18,695; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) $9,302-$28,643) and longer adjusted cumulative survival (0.18 years; 95% CI 0.10-0.27) over four years of followup. The expected cost-effectiveness was $102,142 (95% CI $34,531-296,337) per life-year gained. In routine clinical practice, adding rituximab to first-line chemotherapy for elderly patients with FL results in higher direct medical costs to Medicare and longer cumulative survival after four years.

Repeated Radionuclide therapy in metastatic paraganglioma leading to the highest reported cumulative activity of 131I-MIBG

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ezziddin, Samer; Sabet, Amir; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Xun, Sunny; Matthies, Alexander; Biersack, Hans-Jürgen

2012-01-01

131 I-MIBG therapy for neuroendocrine tumours may be dose limited. The common range of applied cumulative activities is 10-40 GBq. We report the uneventful cumulative administration of 111 GBq (= 3 Ci) 131 I-MIBG in a patient with metastatic paraganglioma. Ten courses of 131 I-MIBG therapy were given within six years, accomplishing symptomatic, hormonal and tumour responses with no serious adverse effects. Chemotherapy with cisplatin/vinblastine/dacarbazine was the final treatment modality with temporary control of disease, but eventually the patient died of progression. The observed cumulative activity of 131 I-MIBG represents the highest value reported to our knowledge, and even though 12.6 GBq of 90 Y-DOTATOC were added intermediately, no associated relevant bone marrow, hepatic or other toxicity were observed. In an individual attempt to palliate metastatic disease high cumulative activity alone should not preclude the patient from repeat treatment

Application of Higher-Order Cumulant in Fault Diagnosis of Rolling Bearing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen, Yongjun; Yang, Shaopu; Wang, Junfeng

2013-01-01

In this paper a new method of pattern recognition based on higher-order cumulant and envelope analysis is presented. The core of this new method is to construct analytical signals from the given signals and obtain the envelope signals firstly, then compute and compare the higher-order cumulants of the envelope signals. The higher-order cumulants could be used as a characteristic quantity to distinguish these given signals. As an example, this method is applied in fault diagnosis for 197726 rolling bearing of freight locomotive. The comparisons of the second-order, third-order and fourth-order cumulants of the envelope signals from different vibration signals of rolling bearing show this new method could discriminate the normal and two fault signals distinctly

Concurrent and Sustained Cumulative Effects of Adolescent Marijuana Use on Subclinical Psychotic Symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Bechtold, Jordan; Hipwell, Alison; Lewis, David A; Loeber, Rolf; Pardini, Dustin

2016-08-01

Adolescents who regularly use marijuana may be at heightened risk of developing subclinical and clinical psychotic symptoms. However, this association could be explained by reverse causation or other factors. To address these limitations, the current study examined whether adolescents who engage in regular marijuana use exhibit a systematic increase in subclinical psychotic symptoms that persists during periods of sustained abstinence. The sample comprised 1,009 boys who were recruited in 1st and 7th grades. Self-reported frequency of marijuana use, subclinical psychotic symptoms, and several time-varying confounds (e.g., other substance use, internalizing/externalizing problems) were recorded annually from age 13 to 18. Fixed-effects (within-individual change) models examined whether adolescents exhibited an increase in their subclinical psychotic symptoms as a function of their recent and/or cumulative history of regular marijuana use and whether these effects were sustained following abstinence. Models controlled for all time-stable factors (default) and several time-varying covariates as potential confounds. For each year adolescent boys engaged in regular marijuana use, their expected level of subsequent subclinical psychotic symptoms rose by 21% and their expected odds of experiencing subsequent subclinical paranoia or hallucinations rose by 133% and 92%, respectively. The effect of prior regular marijuana use on subsequent subclinical psychotic symptoms persisted even when adolescents stopped using marijuana for a year. These effects were after controlling for all time-stable and several time-varying confounds. No support was found for reverse causation. These results suggest that regular marijuana use may significantly increase the risk that an adolescent will experience persistent subclinical psychotic symptoms.

Do self-reported concussions have cumulative or enduring effects on drivers' anticipation of traffic hazards?

Science.gov (United States)

Preece, Megan H W; Horswill, Mark S; Ownsworth, Tamara

2016-01-01

To investigate the cumulative effect of multiple self-reported concussions and the enduring effect of concussion on drivers' hazard perception ability. It was hypothesized: (1) that individuals reporting multiple previous concussions would be slower to anticipate traffic hazards than individuals reporting either one previous concussion or none; and (2) that individuals reporting a concussion within the past 3 months would be slower to anticipate traffic hazards than individuals reporting either an earlier concussion or no prior concussion. Two hundred and eighty-two predominantly young drivers (nconcussed = 68, Mage = 21.57 years, SDage = 6.99 years, 66% female) completed a validated hazard perception test (HPT) and measures of emotional, cognitive, health and driving status. A one-way analysis of variance showed that there was no significant effect of concussion number on HPT response times. Similarly, pairwise comparisons showed no significant differences between the HPT response times of individuals reporting a concussion within the previous 3 months, individuals reporting an earlier concussion and the never concussed group. The findings suggest that previous concussions do not adversely affect young drivers' ability to anticipate traffic hazards; however, due to reliance on self-reports of concussion history, further prospective longitudinal research is needed.

The association between cumulative adversity and mental health: considering dose and primary focus of adversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Keinan, Giora; Shrira, Amit; Shmotkin, Dov

2012-09-01

The study addressed the dose-response model in the association of cumulative adversity with mental health. Data of 1,725 participants aged 50+ were drawn from the Israeli component of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe. Measures included an inventory of potentially traumatic events, distress (lifetime depression, depressive symptoms), and well-being (quality of life, optimism/hope). The maximal effect of cumulative trauma emerged in the contrast between 0-2 and 3+ events, where the higher number of events related to higher distress but also to higher well-being. While self-oriented adversity revealed no, or negative, association with well-being, other-oriented adversity revealed a positive association. The study suggests an experiential dose of cumulative adversity leading to a co-activation of distress and well-being. The source of this co-activation seems to be other-oriented adversity.

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Myles R.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.; Reisinger, Andy; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Forster, Piers M.

2016-08-01

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of `cumulative climate pollutants' such as carbon dioxide versus `short-lived climate pollutants' (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20-40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century, which may be necessary to limit warming to ``well below 2 °C'' (ref. ). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

A new approach to the management of cumulative environmental impacts, the Alberta Oil Sands area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weagle, K.V.

2002-01-01

Resource development in the oil sand industry of Northeastern Alberta is enjoying a wave of renewed interest fuelled in part by changes made in the tax and royalty structure for oil sands developments in the province, the development of new technology and the price of oil. Announcements were made of investments totalling approximately 51 billion dollars in the oil sand industry over the next ten years in all deposits. The issue of cumulative environmental effects has been amplified accordingly. In June 2000, an association was formed, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), consisting of stakeholders and based on consensus, with a mandate to address 72 issues related to potential cumulative impacts in the expanded development of the Wood Buffalo Region. Five working groups were formed, as well as three standing committees. To mitigate the cumulative effects, the working groups and standing committees are working on management objectives, management systems and research recommendations. The regulatory bodies receive the recommendations, and the implementation process involves the issuance of permits and licenses. Research and monitoring activities play a vital role in the environmental management system and are part of other current environmental initiatives. Some of the initiatives are managed by the Wood Buffalo Environmental Association, Regional Aquatics Monitoring Program, and the Canadian Oil Sands Network for Research and Development. These organizations touch on topics including air quality monitoring, aquatics monitoring and environmental research. 1 fig

Single-Word Predictions of Upcoming Language During Comprehension: Evidence from the Cumulative Semantic Interference Task

Science.gov (United States)

Kleinman, Daniel; Runnqvist, Elin; Ferreira, Victor S.

2015-01-01

Comprehenders predict upcoming speech and text on the basis of linguistic input. How many predictions do comprehenders make for an upcoming word? If a listener strongly expects to hear the word “sock”, is the word “shirt” partially expected as well, is it actively inhibited, or is it ignored? The present research addressed these questions by measuring the “downstream” effects of prediction on the processing of subsequently presented stimuli using the cumulative semantic interference paradigm. In three experiments, subjects named pictures (sock) that were presented either in isolation or after strongly constraining sentence frames (“After doing his laundry, Mark always seemed to be missing one…”). Naming sock slowed the subsequent naming of the picture shirt – the standard cumulative semantic interference effect. However, although picture naming was much faster after sentence frames, the interference effect was not modulated by the context (bare vs. sentence) in which either picture was presented. According to the only model of cumulative semantic interference that can account for such a pattern of data, this indicates that comprehenders pre-activated and maintained the pre-activation of best sentence completions (sock) but did not maintain the pre-activation of less likely completions (shirt). Thus, comprehenders predicted only the most probable completion for each sentence. PMID:25917550

In vivo measurements of lead-210 for assessing cumulative radon exposure in uranium miners

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guilmette, R.A.; Laurer, G.R. [New York Univ. Inst. of Environmental Medicine, Tuxedo, NY (United States); Lambert, W.E.; Gilliland, F.D. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)] [and others

1995-12-01

It has long been recognized that a major contributor to the uncertainty in risk analysis of lung cancer in uranium and other hard rock miners is the estimation of total radon progeny exposure of individual miners under study. These uncertainties arise from the fact that only a limited number of measurements of airborne {sup 222}Rn progeny concentrations were made in the mines during the times that the miners were being exposed, and that dosimeters capable of integrating the Rn progeny exposures of the miners did not exist. Historically, the cumulative exposures for individual uranium and other hard rock miners have been calculated by combining the employee`s work history, which may or may not have included time spent at different jobs within the mines and at different locations within the mines, with whatever periodic measurements of Rn and Rn progeny were available. The amount and quality of the measurement data varied enormously from mine to mine and from population to population. Because the quality of the exposure data collected during the period of active mining in the United STates cannot now be altered substantially, significant improvement in individual miner exposure estimates is only likely to be achieved if a new cumulative exposure metric is developed and implemented. The decay chain of Rn includes the production of {sup 210}Pb, which can accumulate in the skeleton in amounts proportional to the intake of Rn progeny. We hypothesize that the in vivo measurement of {sup 210}Pb in the skulls of miners will provide such a metric. In summary, the primary purpose of this pilot study to demonstrate the feasibility of measuring {sup 210}Pb in the heads of former uranium miners has been accomplished.

Environmental impacts of renewable energy. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based analysis of cumulative effects; Umweltauswirkungen erneuerbarer Energien. GIS-gestuetzte Analyse kumulativer Wirkungen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rhoden, Henning

2015-04-15

The energy transition and thus turning away from fossil fuels and nuclear energy sources is based on an increased expansion of renewable energies. This expansion mainly take place in nature and the landscape, which conflicts with the objectives of the Federal Nature Conservation Act concerning scenery or the consequences of monoculture cultivation of energy crops. What happens, however, if more than one type of renewables occur compressed in a landscape that is investigated in this work. Result from cumulative effects are extended conflict with the objectives of the Federal Nature Conservation Act or possibly have positive effects can be seen? A ''cumulative effect'' is defined as an additive-synergistic overall effect of all a protected interest of respective impact factors. These arise from one or more projects / plans and influence from a variety of ways. As part of the investigations carried out it is clear that extended conflicts may arise in relation to the objectives of the Federal Nature Conservation Act by cumulative effects of renewable energies. To prevent these conflicts, policies and regulations in the context of spatial planning is necessary to enable a focusing of spatial planning for a sustainable expansion of renewable energy. [German] Die Energiewende und damit die Abkehr von fossilen und atomaren Energiequellen beruht auf einem verstaerkten Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien. Dieser Ausbau findet vorwiegend in Natur und Landschaft statt, wobei Konflikte mit den Zielen des BNatSchG z.B. hinsichtlich Landschaftsbild oder den Folgen von Monokultur beim Energiepflanzenanbau bereits gegeben sind. Was jedoch passiert, wenn mehrere Arten erneuerbarer Energien in einer Landschaft komprimiert auftreten, wird in dieser Arbeit untersucht. Ergeben sich aus kumulierten Wirkungen erweiterte Konflikte mit den Zielen des BNatSchG oder sind moeglicherweise positive Effekte zu erkennen? Eine ''kumulative Wirkung'' ist

Framework for Multi-Pathway Cumulative Exposure for Comparative Assessments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

McKone, Tom; Fantke, Peter

2016-01-01

in comparative risk assessment, life-cycle assessment (LCA), and chemical alternatives assessment (CAA), multimedia fate and exposure models synthesize information about partitioning, reaction, and intermedia-transport properties of chemicals in a representative (local to regional) or generic (continental...

Analysis of cumulative energy consumption in an oxy-fuel combustion power plant integrated with a CO2 processing unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ziębik, Andrzej; Gładysz, Paweł

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Oxy-fuel combustion is promising CCS technology. • Sum of direct and indirect energy consumption ought to be consider. • This sum is expressed by cumulative energy consumption. • Input–output analysis is adequate method of CCS modeling. - Abstract: A balance of direct energy consumption is not a sufficient tool for an energy analysis of an oxy-fuel combustion power plant because of the indirect consumption of energy in preceding processes in the energy-technological set of interconnections. The sum of direct and indirect consumption expresses cumulative energy consumption. Based on the “input–output” model of direct energy consumption the mathematical model of cumulative energy consumption concerning an integrated oxy-fuel combustion power plant has been developed. Three groups of energy carriers or materials are to be distinguished, viz. main products, by-products and external supplies not supplementing the main production. The mathematical model of the balance of cumulative energy consumption based on the assumption that the indices of cumulative energy consumption of external supplies (mainly fuels and raw materials) are known a’priori. It results from weak connections between domestic economy and an integrated oxy-fuel combustion power plant. The paper presents both examples of the balances of direct and cumulative energy consumption. The results of calculations of indices of cumulative energy consumption concerning main products are presented. A comparison of direct and cumulative energy effects between three variants has been worked out. Calculations of the indices of cumulative energy consumption were also subjected to sensitive analysis. The influence of the indices of cumulative energy consumption of external supplies (input data), as well as the assumption concerning the utilization of solid by-products of the combustion process have been investigated

Childhood Psychosocial Cumulative Risks and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

Science.gov (United States)

Hakulinen, Christian; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Elovainio, Marko; Kubzansky, Laura D.; Jokela, Markus; Hintsanen, Mirka; Juonala, Markus; Kivimäki, Mika; Josefsson, Kim; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Raitakari, Olli T

2015-01-01

Objective Adverse experiences in childhood may influence cardiovascular risk in adulthood. We examined the prospective associations between types of psychosocial adversity as well as having multiple adversities (e.g., cumulative risk) with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and its progression among young adults. Higher cumulative risk score in childhood was expected to be associated with higher IMT and its progression. Methods Participants were 2265 men and women (age range: 24-39 years in 2001) from the on-going Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study whose carotid IMT were measured in 2001 and 2007. A cumulative psychosocial risk score, assessed at the study baseline in 1980, was derived from four separate aspects of the childhood environment that may impose risk (childhood stressful life-events, parental health behavior family, socioeconomic status, and childhood emotional environment). Results The cumulative risk score was associated with higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.001; padulthood, including adulthood health behavior, adulthood socioeconomic status and depressive symptoms. Among the individual childhood psychosocial risk categories, having more stressful life-events was associated with higher IMT in 2001 (b=.007; se=.003; p=.016) and poorer parental health behavior predicted higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.002; p=.031) after adjustment for age, sex and childhood cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions Early life psychosocial environment influences cardiovascular risk later in life and considering cumulative childhood risk factors may be more informative than individual factors in predicting progression of preclinical atherosclerosis in adulthood. PMID:26809108

Evolution of costly explicit memory and cumulative culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakamaru, Mayuko

2016-06-21

Humans can acquire new information and modify it (cumulative culture) based on their learning and memory abilities, especially explicit memory, through the processes of encoding, consolidation, storage, and retrieval. Explicit memory is categorized into semantic and episodic memories. Animals have semantic memory, while episodic memory is unique to humans and essential for innovation and the evolution of culture. As both episodic and semantic memory are needed for innovation, the evolution of explicit memory influences the evolution of culture. However, previous theoretical studies have shown that environmental fluctuations influence the evolution of imitation (social learning) and innovation (individual learning) and assume that memory is not an evolutionary trait. If individuals can store and retrieve acquired information properly, they can modify it and innovate new information. Therefore, being able to store and retrieve information is essential from the perspective of cultural evolution. However, if both storage and retrieval were too costly, forgetting and relearning would have an advantage over storing and retrieving acquired information. In this study, using mathematical analysis and individual-based simulations, we investigate whether cumulative culture can promote the coevolution of costly memory and social and individual learning, assuming that cumulative culture improves the fitness of each individual. The conclusions are: (1) without cumulative culture, a social learning cost is essential for the evolution of storage-retrieval. Costly storage-retrieval can evolve with individual learning but costly social learning does not evolve. When low-cost social learning evolves, the repetition of forgetting and learning is favored more than the evolution of costly storage-retrieval, even though a cultural trait improves the fitness. (2) When cumulative culture exists and improves fitness, storage-retrieval can evolve with social and/or individual learning, which

Patterns of cumulative abuse among female survivors of intimate partner violence: links to women's health and socioeconomic status.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Lorraine; Ford-Gilboe, Marilyn; Willson, Andrea; Varcoe, Colleen; Wuest, Judith; Campbell, Jacquelyn; Scott-Storey, Kelly

2015-01-01

Drawing on the Women's Health Effects Study, a community sample of women (N = 309) who recently left an abusive partner, this study examines patterns of cumulative abuse experiences over the life course, their socioeconomic correlates, and associations with a range of health outcomes. Latent class analysis identified four groups of women with differing cumulative abuse profiles: Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) Dominant, Child Abuse and IPV, All Forms, and All Forms Extreme. We find a relationship pattern between cumulative abuse and socioeconomic circumstances, and significantly worse health outcomes among women with the All Forms Extreme profile. Implications for research and practice are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Salvage logging following fires can minimize boreal caribou habitat loss while maintaining forest quotas: An example of compensatory cumulative effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Beguin, Julien; McIntire, Eliot J B; Raulier, Frédéric

2015-11-01

Protected area networks are the dominant conservation approach that is used worldwide for protecting biodiversity. Conservation planning in managed forests, however, presents challenges when endangered species use old-growth forests targeted by the forest industry for timber supply. In many ecosystems, this challenge is further complicated by the occurrence of natural disturbance events that disrupt forest attributes at multiple scales. Using spatially explicit landscape simulation experiments, we gather insights into how these large scale, multifaceted processes (fire risk, timber harvesting and the amount of protected area) influenced both the persistence of the threatened boreal caribou and the level of timber supply in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. Our result showed that failure to account explicitly and a priori for fire risk in the calculation of timber supply led to an overestimation of timber harvest volume, which in turn led to rates of cumulative disturbances that threatened both the long-term persistence of boreal caribou and the sustainability of the timber supply itself. Salvage logging, however, allowed some compensatory cumulative effects. It minimised the reductions of timber supply within a range of ∼10% while reducing the negative impact of cumulative disturbances caused by fire and logging on caribou. With the global increase of the human footprint on forest ecosystems, our approach and results provide useful tools and insights for managers to resolve what often appear as lose-lose situation between the persistence of species at risk and timber harvest in other forest ecosystems. These tools contribute to bridge the gap between conservation and forest management, two disciplines that remain too often disconnected in practice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulative dosages of antipsychotic drugs are associated with increased mortality rate in patients with Alzheimer's dementia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, R E; Lolk, A; Valentin, J B

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE: We wished to investigate the effects of cumulative dosages of antipsychotic drug in Alzheimer's dementia, when controlling for known risk factors, including current antipsychotic exposure, on all-cause mortality. METHOD: We utilized a nationwide, population-based, retrospective cohort...... study design with mortality as outcome in individual patients diagnosed with Alzheimer's dementia. RESULTS: We included a total of 45 894 patients and followed them for 3 803 996 person-years in total, presenting 27 894 deaths in the study population. Cumulative antipsychotic exposure increased...... or equal to 730 DDDs: HR 1.06, 95% CI (0.95-1.18), P = 0.322, when controlling for proxy markers of severity, somatic and mental comorbid disorders. CONCLUSION: In this nationwide cohort study of 45 894 patients diagnosed with Alzheimer's dementia, we found that cumulative dosages of antipsychotic drugs...

Cumulative effects of rapid climate and land-use changes on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, D. A.; Leibman, M. O.; Forbes, B. C.; Epstein, H. E.

2008-12-01

Our principal goal is to develop better, more far-looking tools to predict the cumulative effects of resource development, climate-change, and traditional land use. Here we use remote sensing, climate-change analyses, socio-economic analyses, and vegetation-change models to examine the cumulative effects of climate change, gas development, and reindeer herding on the Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia as part of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI). We find: 1. Direct (planned) impacts of industrial activities on the Yamal Peninsula are currently local and limited in extent, but this is changing rapidly as extensive gas fields are developed and land and sea transportation corridors are developed to get the gas to market. Indirect impacts of the development at Bovanenkovo, the largest gas field, exceed the direct impacts by a factor of three, and the total area of influence of the development on the reindeer pasturelands (e.g., area where migration routes and access to pasturelands is affected) exceeds the direct impacts by a factor of about 40. 2. The trend in land-surface temperatures has co-varied with the trend in sea-ice. Low sea ice in the preceding December-March period is correlated to warmer land temperature the following summer. The sea- ice trends in the Kara Sea-Yamal region are tied to variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation index. 4. Only a small greening response to warming has been detected on the Yamal in comparison with some other areas in the Arctic (e.g. Northern Alaska). The actual effects of climate-change on vegetation are currently hard to document at the ground level because of lack of baseline and long-term ground observations and difficulty of excluding reindeer in these studies. 5. There is high potential for extensive landscape effects due to unstable sandy soils, and extremely ice-rich permafrost near the surface on slopes. 6. Two different vegetation modeling approaches are being used to predict

A comparison of alternative methods of calculating complementary cumulative distribution functions of health effects following an atmospheric radioactive release

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ponting, A.C.; Nair, S.

1984-04-01

A concept extensively used in studying the consequences of accidental atmospheric radioactive releases is that of the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function, CCDF. Various methods of calculating CCDFs have been developed with particular applications in putting degraded core accidents in perspective and in identifying release sequences leading to high risks. This note compares three methods with specific reference to their accuracy and computational efficiency. For two of the methods (that used in the US Reactor Safety Study code CRAC2 and extended version of that method), the effects of varying the sector width and considering site-specific population distributions have been determined. For the third method it is only necessary to consider the effects of site-specific population distributions. (author)

Hyperscaling breakdown and Ising spin glasses: The Binder cumulant

Science.gov (United States)

Lundow, P. H.; Campbell, I. A.

2018-02-01

Among the Renormalization Group Theory scaling rules relating critical exponents, there are hyperscaling rules involving the dimension of the system. It is well known that in Ising models hyperscaling breaks down above the upper critical dimension. It was shown by Schwartz (1991) that the standard Josephson hyperscaling rule can also break down in Ising systems with quenched random interactions. A related Renormalization Group Theory hyperscaling rule links the critical exponents for the normalized Binder cumulant and the correlation length in the thermodynamic limit. An appropriate scaling approach for analyzing measurements from criticality to infinite temperature is first outlined. Numerical data on the scaling of the normalized correlation length and the normalized Binder cumulant are shown for the canonical Ising ferromagnet model in dimension three where hyperscaling holds, for the Ising ferromagnet in dimension five (so above the upper critical dimension) where hyperscaling breaks down, and then for Ising spin glass models in dimension three where the quenched interactions are random. For the Ising spin glasses there is a breakdown of the normalized Binder cumulant hyperscaling relation in the thermodynamic limit regime, with a return to size independent Binder cumulant values in the finite-size scaling regime around the critical region.

Relationship between mutation frequency of GPA locus and cumulative dose among medical diagnostic X-ray workers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Jixian; Yu Wenru; Li Benxiao; Fan Tiqiang; Li Zhen; Gao Zhiwei; Chen Zhenjun; Zhao Yongcheng

2000-01-01

Objective: To explore the feasibility of using GPA locus mutation assay as a bio-dosimeter for occupational exposure to ionizing radiation. Methods: An improved technique of GPA locus mutation assay was used in th study. The frequencies of mutant RBC in peripheral blood of 55 medical X-ray workers and 50 controls employed in different calendar-year periods were detected. The relationship between mutation frequencies (MFs) and period of entry, working years and cumulative doses were analyzed. Results: The MFs were significantly elevated among X-ray workers employed before 1970. This finding is similar to the result of cancer epidemiological study among medical X-ray workers , in which the cancer risk was significantly increased only X-ray workers employed before 1970. The MFs of GPA increased with increasing cumulative dose. The dose-effect relationship of Nφ MF with cumulative dose was closer than that of NN MF. Conclusion: There are many problems to be solved for using GPA MF assay as a bio-dosimeter such as individual variation, specificity and calibration curve of dose-effect relationship

Impact on Medical Cost, Cumulative Survival, and Cost-Effectiveness of Adding Rituximab to First-Line Chemotherapy for Follicular Lymphoma in Elderly Patients: An Observational Cohort Study Based on SEER-Medicare

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert I. Griffiths

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Rituximab improves survival in follicular lymphoma (FL, but is considerably more expensive than conventional chemotherapy. We estimated the total direct medical costs, cumulative survival, and cost-effectiveness of adding rituximab to first-line chemotherapy for FL, based on a single source of data representing routine practice in the elderly. Using surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER registry data plus Medicare claims, we identified 1,117 FL patients who received first-line CHOP (cyclophosphamide (C, doxorubicin, vincristine (V, and prednisone (P or CVP +/− rituximab. Multivariate regression was used to estimate adjusted cumulative cost and survival differences between the two groups over four years after beginning treatment. The median age was 73 years (minimum 66 years, 56% had stage III-IV disease, and 67% received rituximab. Adding rituximab to first-line chemotherapy was associated with higher adjusted incremental total cost ($18,695; 95% Confidence Interval (CI $9,302–$28,643 and longer adjusted cumulative survival (0.18 years; 95% CI 0.10–0.27 over four years of followup. The expected cost-effectiveness was $102,142 (95% CI $34,531–296,337 per life-year gained. In routine clinical practice, adding rituximab to first-line chemotherapy for elderly patients with FL results in higher direct medical costs to Medicare and longer cumulative survival after four years.

Cumulative socioeconomic status risk, allostatic load, and adjustment: a prospective latent profile analysis with contextual and genetic protective factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Brody, Gene H; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-fu; Kogan, Steven M; Evans, Gary W; Beach, Steven R H; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X; Philibert, Robert A

2013-05-01

The health disparities literature has identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative socioeconomic status (SES) risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental precursors to this pattern. Hypotheses were tested with a representative sample of 443 African American youths living in the rural South. Cumulative SES risk and protective processes were assessed at ages 11-13 years; psychological adjustment was assessed at ages 14-18 years; genotyping at the 5-HTTLPR was conducted at age 16 years; and allostatic load (AL) was assessed at age 19 years. A latent profile analysis identified 5 profiles that evinced distinct patterns of SES risk, AL, and psychological adjustment, with 2 relatively large profiles designated as focal profiles: a physical health vulnerability profile characterized by high SES risk/high AL/low adjustment problems, and a resilient profile characterized by high SES risk/low AL/low adjustment problems. The physical health vulnerability profile mirrored the pattern found in the adult health disparities literature. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that carrying an s allele at the 5-HTTLPR and receiving less peer support distinguished the physical health vulnerability profile from the resilient profile. Protective parenting and planful self-regulation distinguished both focal profiles from the other 3 profiles. The results suggest the public health importance of preventive interventions that enhance coping and reduce the effects of stress across childhood and adolescence.

Human biomonitoring of phthalate exposure in Austrian children and adults and cumulative risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hartmann, Christina; Uhl, Maria; Weiss, Stefan; Koch, Holger M; Scharf, Sigrid; König, Jürgen

2015-07-01

Phthalates are a class of chemicals widely used as plasticisers in a multitude of common consumer products. Through contact with such products, people are regularly exposed to phthalates, which are suspected to contribute to adverse health effects, particularly in the reproductive system. In the present study, 14 urinary phthalate metabolites of 10 parent phthalates were analysed by HPLC-MS/MS among the Austrian population aged 6-15 and 18-81 years in order to assess phthalate exposure. In the total study population, ranges of urinary phthalate metabolite concentrations were n.d.-2,105 μg/l (median 25 μg/l) for monoethyl phthalate (MEP), n.d.-88 μg/l (10 μg/l) for mono-n-butyl phthalate (MnBP), n.d.-248 μg/l (28 μg/l) for mono-isobutyl phthalate (MiBP), n.d.-57 μg/l (1.8 μg/l) for mono-benzyl phthalate (MBzP), n.d.-20 μg/l (n.d.) for mono-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP), n.d.-80 μg/l (2.6 μg/l) for mono-(2-ethyl-5-hydroxyhexyl) phthalate (5OH-MEHP), n.d.-57 μg/l (1.9 μg/l) for mono-(2-ethyl-5-oxohexyl) phthalate (5oxo-MEHP), n.d.-219 μg/l (11 μg/l) for mono-(5-carboxy-2-ethylpentyl) phthalate (5cx-MEPP), n.d.-188 μg/l (1.6 μg/l) for 3-carboxy-mono-proply phthalate (3 cx-MPP), n.d.-5.5 μg/l (n.d.) for mono-cyclohexyl phthalate (MCHP), n.d.-4.5 μg/l (n.d.) for mono-n-pentyl phthalate (MnPeP), n.d.-3.4 μg/l (n.d.) for mono-n-octyl phthalate (MnOP), n.d.-13 μg/l (n.d.) for mono-isononyl phthalate (MiNP), and n.d.-1.1 μg/l (n.d.) for mono-isodecyl phthalate (MiDP). Generally, children exhibited higher levels of exposure to the majority of investigated phthalates, except to MEP, which was found in higher concentrations in adults and senior citizens at a maximum concentration of 2,105 μg/l. Individual daily intakes were estimated based on urinary creatinine and urinary volume excretion and were then compared to acceptable exposure levels, leading to the identification of exceedances of mainly the Tolerable Daily Intakes (TDI), especially among

An Evidence-Based Evaluation of the Cumulative Effects of Tidal Freshwater and Estuarine Ecosystem Restoration on Endangered Juvenile Salmon in the Columbia River: Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diefenderfer, Heida L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Johnson, Gary E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Thom, Ronald M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Borde, Amy B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Woodley, Christa M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Weitkamp, Laurie A. [Marine Sciences lab., Sequim, WA (United States); Buenau, Kate E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kropp, Roy K. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2013-12-01

measurements, data analyses, modeling, meta-analysis, and reanalysis of previously collected data sets. We identified a set of 12 ancillary hypotheses regarding habitat and salmon response. Each ancillary hypothesis states that the response metric will trend toward conditions at relatively undisturbed reference sites. We synthesized the evidence for and against the two necessary conditions by using eleven causal criteria: strength, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, experiment, analogy, complete exposure pathway, and predictive performance. Our final evaluation included cumulative effects assessment because restoration is occurring at multiple sites and the collective effect is important to salmon recovery. We concluded that all five lines of evidence from the LCRE indicated positive habitat-based and fish-based responses to the restoration performed under the CEERP, although tide gate replacements on small sloughs were an exception. Our analyses suggested that hydrologic reconnections restore access for fish to move into a site to find prey produced there. Reconnections also restore the potential for the flux of prey from the site to the main stem river, where our data show that they are consumed by salmon. We infer that LCRE ecosystem restoration supports increased juvenile salmon growth and enhanced fitness (condition), thereby potentially improving survival rates during the early ocean stage.

Assessment of transboundary environmental effects in the Pearl River Delta Region: Is there a role for strategic environmental assessment?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marsden, Simon

2011-01-01

China's EIA Law does not require transboundary proposals to be assessed, despite recognition of this globally, for example in the Espoo Convention and Kiev Protocol, and in the European EIA and SEA Directives. In a transboundary context assessment within a state is unusual, as regulating these effects is primarily about the relationship between states. However where a state has more than one legal system such as in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) Region of southern China, transboundary effects should also be addressed. Yet despite the geographical connections between Guangdong Province in mainland China (where the EIA Law applies) and the Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions (which have their own provisions, neither of which requires transboundary assessments), EIA and SEA are carried out separately. Coordinated or joint approaches to transboundary assessment are generally absent, with the legal autonomy of Hong Kong and Macau a major constraint. As a result institutional responses at the policy level have developed. The article considers global experiences with regulating transboundary EIA and SEA, and analyses potential application to land use, transport and air and water planning in the PRD Region. If applied, benefits may include prevention or mitigation of cumulative effects, broader public participation, and improvements to environmental governance. The PRD Region experience may encourage China to conduct and coordinate EIA and SEA processes with neighbouring states, which has been non-existent or extremely limited to date.

Overexploitation and cumulative drought trend effect on Ras El Ain karstic spring discharge (Khabour Sub-basin, Syria)

Science.gov (United States)

Abou Zakhem, Boulos; Kattaa, Bassam

2017-10-01

The effects of climate change and overexploitation are being strongly perceived in the studied area and the springs discharge is obviously affected. In this paper, Ras El Ain spring discharge and precipitation were analyzed by normalized methods on an yearly timescale. The deficit of Ras El Ain spring discharge due to overexploitation factors and drought effects was estimated. Cumulative drought analyses were carried out using SPI10 and SQI10. Finally, the decreasing trends of the spring discharge due to the deficiency in rainfall were analyzed. The main results reveal that the annual mean deficit of Ras El Ain spring discharge due to overpumping was between 32 and 45%, whereas, annual mean deficit related to drought was between 22 and 35% on average, during the last 30 years (post-1984). The moving averages of SPI and SQI delineate very well the drought periods during last three decades. The cumulative droughts using SPI10 and SQI10 reveal that wet period (pre-1984) with positive values was characterized by high precipitation and spring discharge. Overexploitation period (1984-1989) is distinguished by decreasing SQI10 values whereas, SPI10 is almost stable. The response of the karst system to the precipitation signal has been changed, during the drought period (1990-2000), and the spring behaviour has been modified due to the first overexploitation period. Finally, overexploitation period (2001-2008) is related to the second phase of groundwater intensive pumping for irrigation purposes. Consequently, this period is completely catastrophic causing the drying up of the spring. The decreasing trends analyzed using DPI and DQI showed annual decreasing rates relative to the mean values of -0.268% and -0.105%, respectively. Thus, the results of theoretical model reveal that precipitation will decrease by about DPI = -20.7% and the discharge will decline by about -9.2% by 2050. Consequently, the declining discharge due to climatic variation under natural conditions as

Early cumulative risk predicts externalizing behavior at age 10: The mediating role of adverse parenting.

Science.gov (United States)

Gach, Emily J; Ip, Ka I; Sameroff, Arnold J; Olson, Sheryl L

2018-02-01

Multiple environmental risk factors in early childhood predict a broad range of adverse developmental outcomes. However, most prior longitudinal research has not illuminated explanatory mechanisms. Our main goals were to examine predictive associations between cumulative ecological risk factors in early childhood and children's later externalizing problems and to determine whether these associations were explained by variations in parenting quality. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) at risk for school-age conduct problems and their parents and teachers. Children were approximately 3 years old at Time 1 (T1) and 10 years old at Time 2 (T2). Reports of contextual risk at T1 were used to develop a cumulative risk index consisting of 6 singular risk variables from 3 ecological levels: social resources (low income; social isolation), family resources (marital aggression; poor total family functioning), and maternal resources (single parent status; poor maternal mental health). At T1, parenting variables were measured (corporal punishment, warm responsiveness, maternal efficacy, and negative perceptions of child behavior). At T2, mothers, fathers, and teachers reported child externalizing problems. Johnson's relative weight analysis revealed that the cumulative risk index was a more powerful predictor of age 10 years externalizing behavior than any of the singular contextual risk variables. Adverse parenting mediated the effects of cumulative risk on later child externalizing problems. Our findings have significant implications for understanding long-term effects of multiple contextual risk factors present in early childhood and for the implementation of positive parenting interventions early on. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Querbes, Adrien; Vaesen, Krist; Houkes, Wybo

2014-01-01

Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe

2014-01-01

Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO 2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions. (authors)

Mapping cumulative environmental risks: examples from the EU NoMiracle project

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pistocchi, A.; Groenwold, J.; Lahr, J.; Loos, M.; Mujica, M.; Ragas, A.M.J.; Rallo, R.; Sala, S.; Schlink, U.; Strebel, K.; Vighi, M.; Vizcaino, P.

2011-01-01

We present examples of cumulative chemical risk mapping methods developed within the NoMiracle project. The different examples illustrate the application of the concentration addition (CA) approach to pesticides at different scale, the integration in space of cumulative risks to individual organisms

Mapping Cumulative Impacts of Human Activities on Marine Ecosystems

OpenAIRE

, Seaplan

2018-01-01

Given the diversity of human uses and natural resources that converge in coastal waters, the potential independent and cumulative impacts of those uses on marine ecosystems are important to consider during ocean planning. This study was designed to support the development and implementation of the 2009 Massachusetts Ocean Management Plan. Its goal was to estimate and visualize the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal and marine ecosystems in the state and federal waters off of Ma...

Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

Re-conceptualising prenatal life stressors in predicting post-partum depression: cumulative-, specific-, and domain-specific approaches to calculating risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Cindy H; Tronick, Ed

2013-09-01

Prenatal life stress predicts post-partum depression (PPD); however, studies generally examine individual stressors (a specific approach) or the summation of such exposure (a cumulative approach) and their associations with PPD. Such approaches may oversimplify prenatal life stress as a risk factor for PPD. We evaluated approaches in assessing prenatal life stress as a predictor of PPD diagnosis, including a domain-specific approach that captures cumulative life stress while accounting for stress across different life stress domains: financial, relational, and physical health. The Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, a population-based survey, was used to analyse the association of prenatal life stressors with PPD diagnoses among 3566 New York City post-partum women. Specific stressors were not associated with PPD diagnosis after controlling for sociodemographic variables. Exposure to a greater number of stressors was associated with PPD diagnosis, even after adjusting for both sociodemographic variables and specific stressors [odds ratio (OR) = 3.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.5, 6.7]. Individuals reporting a moderate-to-high number of financial problems along with a moderate-to-high number of physical problems were at greater odds of PPD (OR = 4.2, 95% CI = 1.2, 15.3); those with a moderate-to-high number of problems in all three domains were at over fivefold increased odds of PPD (OR = 5.5, CI = 1.1, 28.5). In assessing prenatal stress, clinicians should consider the extent to which stressors occur across different life domains; this association appears stronger with PPD diagnosis than simple assessments of individual stressors, which typically overestimate risk or cumulative exposures. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and Mental Health of Employees in ... CAs were measured in three forms (family adversities (CAFam), personal adversities ... Age of employees ranged between 18-65 years.

Association of cumulative dose of haloperidol with next-day delirium in older medical ICU patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Pisani, Margaret A; Araujo, Katy L B; Murphy, Terrence E

2015-05-01

To evaluate the association between cumulative dose of haloperidol and next-day diagnosis of delirium in a cohort of older medical ICU patients, with adjustment for its time-dependent confounding with fentanyl and intubation. Prospective, observational study. Medical ICU at an urban, academic medical center. Age 60 years and older admitted to the medical ICU who received at least one dose of haloperidol (n = 93). Of these, 72 patients were intubated at some point in their medical ICU stay, whereas 21 were never intubated. None. Detailed data were collected concerning time, dosage, route of administration of all medications, as well as for important clinical covariates, and daily status of intubation and delirium using the confusion assessment method for the ICU and a chart-based algorithm. Among nonintubated patients, and after adjustment for time-dependent confounding and important covariates, each additional cumulative milligram of haloperidol was associated with 5% higher odds of next-day delirium with odds ratio of 1.05 (credible interval [CI], 1.02-1.09). After adjustment for time-dependent confounding and covariates, intubation was associated with a five-fold increase in odds of next-day delirium with odds ratio of 5.66 (CI, 2.70-12.02). Cumulative dose of haloperidol among intubated patients did not change their already high likelihood of next-day delirium. After adjustment for time-dependent confounding, the positive associations between indicators of intubation and of cognitive impairment and next-day delirium became stronger. These results emphasize the need for more studies regarding the efficacy of haloperidol for treatment of delirium among older medical ICU patients and demonstrate the value of assessing nonintubated patients.

Cumulation of light nuclei

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldin, A.M.; Bondarev, V.K.; Golovanov, L.B.

1977-01-01

Limit fragmentation of light nuclei (deuterium, helium) bombarded with 8,6 GeV/c protons was investigated. Fragments (pions, protons and deuterons) were detected within the emission angle 50-150 deg with regard to primary protons and within the pulse range 150-180 MeV/c. By the kinematics of collision of a primary proton with a target at rest the fragments observed correspond to a target mass upto 3 GeV. Thus, the data obtained correspond to teh cumulation upto the third order

Testing of Software Routine to Determine Deviate and Cumulative Probability: ModStandardNormal Version 1.0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A.H. Monib

1999-01-01

The purpose of this calculation is to document that the software routine ModStandardNomal Version 1.0 which is a Visual Fortran 5.0 module, provides correct results for a normal distribution up to five significant figures (three significant figures at the function tails) for a specified range of input parameters. The software routine may be used for quality affecting work. Two types of output are generated in ModStandardNomal: a deviate, x, given a cumulative probability, p, between 0 and 1; and a cumulative probability, p, given a deviate, x, between -8 and 8. This calculation supports Performance Assessment, under Technical Product Development Plan, TDP-EBS-MD-000006 (Attachment I, DIRS 3) and is written in accordance with the AP-3.12Q Calculations procedure (Attachment I, DIRS 4)

An Integrated Environmental Assessment of the US Mid-Atlantic Region

Science.gov (United States)

James D. Wickham; K.B. Jones; Kurt H. Riitters; R.V. O' Neill; R.D. Tankersley; E.R. Smith; A.C. Neale; D.J. Chaloud

1999-01-01

Many of today's environmental problems are in scope and their effects overlap and interact. We developed a simple method to provide an integrated assessment of environmental conditions and estimate cumulative impacts across a large region, by combining data on land-cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography. The integrated assessment...

Session: What do we know about cumulative or population impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kerlinger, Paul; Manville, Al; Kendall, Bill

2004-09-01

This session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of a panel discussion followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The panelists were Paul Kerlinger, Curry and Kerlinger, LLC, Al Manville, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Bill Kendall, US Geological Service. The panel addressed the potential cumulative impacts of wind turbines on bird and bat populations over time. Panel members gave brief presentations that touched on what is currently known, what laws apply, and the usefulness of population modeling. Topics addressed included which sources of modeling should be included in cumulative impacts, comparison of impacts from different modes of energy generation, as well as what research is still needed regarding cumulative impacts of wind energy development on bird and bat populations.

Evolutionary neural network modeling for software cumulative failure time prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tian Liang; Noore, Afzel

2005-01-01

An evolutionary neural network modeling approach for software cumulative failure time prediction based on multiple-delayed-input single-output architecture is proposed. Genetic algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the delayed input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network architecture. Modification of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to improve the ability to predict software cumulative failure time. The performance of our proposed approach has been compared using real-time control and flight dynamic application data sets. Numerical results show that both the goodness-of-fit and the next-step-predictability of our proposed approach have greater accuracy in predicting software cumulative failure time compared to existing approaches

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, J. M.

2013-12-01

Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation

Effects of the hydraulic conductivity of the matrix/macropore interface on cumulative infiltrations into dual-permeability media

Science.gov (United States)

Lassabatere, L.; Peyrard, X.; Angulo-Jaramillo, R.; Simunek, J.

2009-12-01

Modeling of water infiltration into the vadose zone is important for better understanding of movement of water-transported contaminants. There is a great need to take into account the soil heterogeneity and, in particular, the presence of macropores or cracks that could generate preferential flow. Several mathematical models have been proposed to describe unsaturated flow through heterogeneous soils. The dual-permeability model (referred to as the 2K model) assumes that flow is governed by Richards equation in both porous regions (matrix and macropores). Water can be exchanged between the two regions following a first-order rate law. Although several studies have dealt with such modeling, no study has evaluated the influence of the hydraulic conductivity of the matrix/macropore interface on water cumulative infiltration. And this is the focus of this study. An analytical scaling method reveals the role of the following main parameters for given boundary and initial conditions: the saturated hydraulic conductivity ratio (R_Ks), the water pressure scale parameter ratio (R_hg), the saturated volumetric water content ratio (R_θs), and the shape parameters of the water retention and hydraulic conductivity functions. The last essential parameter is related to the interfacial hydraulic conductivity (Ka) between the macropore and matrix regions. The scaled 2K flow equations were solved using HYDRUS-1D 4.09 for the specific case of water infiltrating into an initially uniform soil profile and a zero pressure head at the soil surface. A sensitivity of water infiltration was studied for different sets of scale parameters (R_Ks, R_hg, R_θs, and shape parameters) and the scaled interfacial conductivity (Ka). Numerical results illustrate two extreme behaviors. When the interfacial conductivity is zero (i.e., no water exchange), water infiltrates separately into matrix and macropore regions, producing a much deeper moisture front in the macropore domain. In the opposite case

Cumulative irritation potential of topical retinoid formulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Leyden, James J; Grossman, Rachel; Nighland, Marge

2008-08-01

Localized irritation can limit treatment success with topical retinoids such as tretinoin and adapalene. The factors that influence irritant reactions have been shown to include individual skin sensitivity, the particular retinoid and concentration used, and the vehicle formulation. To compare the cutaneous tolerability of tretinoin 0.04% microsphere gel (TMG) with that of adapalene 0.3% gel and a standard tretinoin 0.025% cream. The results of 2 randomized, investigator-blinded studies of 2 to 3 weeks' duration, which utilized a split-face method to compare cumulative irritation scores induced by topical retinoids in subjects with healthy skin, were combined. Study 1 compared TMG 0.04% with adapalene 0.3% gel over 2 weeks, while study 2 compared TMG 0.04% with tretinoin 0.025% cream over 3 weeks. In study 1, TMG 0.04% was associated with significantly lower cumulative scores for erythema, dryness, and burning/stinging than adapalene 0.3% gel. However, in study 2, there were no significant differences in cumulative irritation scores between TMG 0.04% and tretinoin 0.025% cream. Measurements of erythema by a chromameter showed no significant differences between the test formulations in either study. Cutaneous tolerance of TMG 0.04% on the face was superior to that of adapalene 0.3% gel and similar to that of a standard tretinoin cream containing a lower concentration of the drug (0.025%).

Probabilistic assessment of the cumulative dietary acute exposure of the population of Denmark to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Bodil Hamborg; Petersen, Annette; Christensen, Tue

2009-01-01

and methamidophos. RPF values derived from the literature were used in the calculations. We calculated the cumulative acute exposure to 1.8% and 0.8% of the acute reference dose (ARfD) of 100 mu g kg(-1) body weight (bw) day(-1) of chlorpyrifos as an index compound at the 99.9th percentile (P99.5) for children...

Tests of Cumulative Prospect Theory with graphical displays of probability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael H. Birnbaum

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Recent research reported evidence that contradicts cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic. The same body of research also violates two editing principles of original prospect theory: cancellation (the principle that people delete any attribute that is the same in both alternatives before deciding between them and combination (the principle that people combine branches leading to the same consequence by adding their probabilities. This study was designed to replicate previous results and to test whether the violations of cumulative prospect theory might be eliminated or reduced by using formats for presentation of risky gambles in which cancellation and combination could be facilitated visually. Contrary to the idea that decision behavior contradicting cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic would be altered by use of these formats, however, data with two new graphical formats as well as fresh replication data continued to show the patterns of evidence that violate cumulative prospect theory, the priority heuristic, and the editing principles of combination and cancellation. Systematic violations of restricted branch independence also contradicted predictions of ``stripped'' prospect theory (subjectively weighted additive utility without the editing rules.

CROSSER - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

Science.gov (United States)

Bowerman, P. N.

1994-01-01

The cumulative binomial program, CROSSER, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), can be used independently of one another. CROSSER can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CROSSER calculates the point at which the reliability of a k-out-of-n system equals the common reliability of the n components. It is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The CROSSER program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CROSSER was developed in 1988.

Subjective Effect of September 11, 2001 among Pregnant Women: Is Cumulative History of Interpersonal Violence Important?

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Marilyn W.; Cavanagh, Paul K.; Ahn, Grace; Yoshioka, Marianne R.

2008-01-01

Prior history of trauma may sensitize individuals to subsequent trauma, including terrorist attacks. Using a convenience sample of secondary, cross-sectional data, pregnant women were grouped based on lifetime interpersonal violence history. Cumulative risk theory was used to evaluate the association of lifetime interpersonal violence history and…

Epidemiological study of cumulative trauma disorder in Kerman\\'s state office workers in 2007

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saberi

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Occupational diseases are consequences of various workplace hazards. Cumulative trauma disorder or repetitive strain injury indicates the effect of repeated physical movements and partial pressure on muscles, tendons and other soft tissues of body. This is the most common disease caused by work. Materials and Methods: This descriptive cross-sectional study performed on state office workers in Kerman city in 2007. Data was collected using examination and three questionnaires about work-related diseases, job satisfaction and job stress. After completion of the questionnaires, a trained researcher analyzed the collected data by SPSS 13 and Chi square test. A level of P≤0.05 was considered significant. Results: Data analysis showed that factors such as repeated writing, typing, using computers at work, repeated lifting objects at the table level, traffic through the steps, traffic through the office corridor, reach of foot to the ground when sitting on the chair, using footrests under desk, using chair cushions, using lumber pillows, or swivel chair were not the cause of cumulative trauma disorder. Repetitive bending and refusal to lean against the seat when sitting were effective in causing the disease. Other findings of our research were employees’ ergonomic awareness status, job satisfaction and job stress being calculated according to the median scores for all three factors as average. Conclusion: Repetitive bending and avoidance from leaning against the chair were significant factors causing high rates of cumulative trauma disorder in office workers of Kerman city. Modification of these factors or even using lumbar supportive equipment may reduce the high prevalence of this disease. Cumulative trauma disorder was found less in employees under the age of thirty and the rates increased with age and work history, linearly.

Health and Academic Achievement: Cumulative Effects of Health Assets on Standardized Test Scores Among Urban Youth in the United States*

Science.gov (United States)

Ickovics, Jeannette R.; Carroll-Scott, Amy; Peters, Susan M.; Schwartz, Marlene; Gilstad-Hayden, Kathryn; McCaslin, Catherine

2014-01-01

Background The Institute of Medicine (2012) concluded that we must “strengthen schools as the heart of health.” To intervene for better outcomes in both health and academic achievement, identifying factors that impact children is essential. Study objectives are to (1) document associations between health assets and academic achievement, and (2) examine cumulative effects of these assets on academic achievement. Methods Participants include 940 students (grades 5 and 6) from 12 schools randomly selected from an urban district. Data include physical assessments, fitness testing, surveys, and district records. Fourteen health indicators were gathered including physical health (eg, body mass index [BMI]), health behaviors (eg, meeting recommendations for fruit/vegetable consumption), family environment (eg, family meals), and psychological well-being (eg, sleep quality). Data were collected 3-6 months prior to standardized testing. Results On average, students reported 7.1 health assets out of 14. Those with more health assets were more likely to be at goal for standardized tests (reading/writing/mathematics), and students with the most health assets were 2.2 times more likely to achieve goal compared with students with the fewest health assets (both p student health may also improve academic achievement, closing equity gaps in both health and academic achievement. PMID:24320151

The cumulative analgesic effect of repeated electroacupuncture involves synaptic remodeling in the hippocampal CA3 region☆

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Qiuling; Liu, Tao; Chen, Shuping; Gao, Yonghui; Wang, Junying; Qiao, Lina; Liu, Junling

2012-01-01

In the present study, we examined the analgesic effect of repeated electroacupuncture at bilateral Zusanli (ST36) and Yanglingquan (GB34) once a day for 14 consecutive days in a rat model of chronic sciatic nerve constriction injury-induced neuropathic pain. In addition, concomitant changes in calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II expression and synaptic ultrastructure of neurons in the hippocampal CA3 region were examined. The thermal pain threshold (paw withdrawal latency) was increased significantly in both groups at 2 weeks after electroacupuncture intervention compared with 2 days of electroacupuncture. In ovariectomized rats with chronic constriction injury, the analgesic effect was significantly reduced. Electroacupuncture for 2 weeks significantly diminished the injury-induced increase in synaptic cleft width and thinning of the postsynaptic density, and it significantly suppressed the down-regulation of intracellular calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II expression in the hippocampal CA3 region. Repeated electroacupuncture intervention had a cumulative analgesic effect on injury-induced neuropathic pain reactions, and it led to synaptic remodeling of hippocampal neurons and upregulated calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II expression in the hippocampal CA3 region. PMID:25657670

Current and historical individual data about exposure of workers in the rayon industry to carbon disulfide and their validity in calculating the cumulative dose.

Science.gov (United States)

Göen, Thomas; Schramm, Axel; Baumeister, Thomas; Uter, Wolfgang; Drexler, Hans

2014-08-01

The objective of the study was to investigate how exposure to carbon disulfide (CS2) in a rayon-manufacturing plant has changed within two decades and whether it is possible to calculate valid data for the individual cumulative exposure. The data for CS2 concentration in air and biological exposure monitoring (2-thio-1,3-thiaxolidine-4-carboxylic acid (TTCA) in urine) from two cross-sectional studies, performed in 1992 (n = 362) and 2009 (n = 212) in a German rayon-manufacturing plant, were compared to data obtained from company-internal measurements between the studies. Using the data from the cross-sectional studies and company-internal data, cumulative external exposure and the cumulative internal exposure were calculated for each worker. External and internal CS2 exposure of the employees decreased from 1992 (medians 4.0 ppm and 1.63 mgTTCA/g creatinine) to 2009 (medians 2.5 ppm and 0.86 mg/g). However, company-internal CS2 data do not show a straight trend for this period. The annual medians of the company-internal measurement of external exposure to CS2 have varied between 2.7 and 8.4 ppm, in which median values exceeded 5 ppm generally since 2000. The annual medians for the company-internal biomonitoring assessment ranged between 1.2 and 2.8 mg/g creatinine. The cumulative CS2 exposure ranged from 8.5 to 869.5 ppm years for external exposure and between 1.30 and 176.2 mg/g creatinine years for the internal exposure. Significant correlations were found between the current air pollution and the internal exposure in 2009 but also between the cumulative external and internal CS2 exposure. Current exposure data, usually collected in cross-sectional studies, rarely allow a reliable statement on the cumulative dose, because of higher exposure in the past and of fluctuating courses of exposure. On the other hand, company-internal exposure data may be affected by non-representative measurement strategies. Some verification of the reliability of

Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrien Querbes

Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

The development of memory maintenance strategies: training cumulative rehearsal and interactive imagery in children aged between 5 and 9.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Sadie; McCulloch, Samantha; Jarrold, Christopher

2015-01-01

The current study explored the extent to which children above and below the age of 7 years are able to benefit from either training in cumulative rehearsal or in the use of interactive imagery when carrying out working memory tasks. Twenty-four 5- to 6-year-olds nd 24 8- to 9-year olds were each assigned to one of three training groups who either received cumulative rehearsal, interactive imagery, or passive labeling training. Participants' ability to maintain material during a filled delay was then assessed, and the nature of the distraction that was imposed during this delay was varied to shed further light on the mechanisms that individuals used to maintain the memoranda in working memory in the face of this distraction. The results suggest that the rehearsal training employed here did improve recall by virtue of encouraging rehearsal strategies, in a way that was not observed among participants receiving interactive imagery training. The fact that these effects were not mediated by age group counts against the view that younger individuals are either unable to rehearse, or show impoverished verbal serial recall because they do not spontaneously engage in rehearsal.

The development of memory maintenance strategies: training cumulative rehearsal and interactive imagery in children aged between 5 and 9

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sadie eMiller

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The current study explored the extent to which children above and below the age of 7 years are able to benefit from either training in cumulative rehearsal or in the use of interactive imagery when carrying out working memory tasks. Twenty-four 5- to 6-year-olds and 24 8- to 9-year olds were each assigned to one of three training groups who either received cumulative rehearsal, interactive imagery, or passive labelling training. Participants’ ability to maintain material during a filled delay was then assessed, and the nature of the distraction that was imposed during this delay was varied to shed further light on the mechanisms that individuals used to maintain the memoranda in working memory in the face of this distraction. The results suggest that the rehearsal training employed here did improve recall by virtue of encouraging rehearsal strategies, in a way that was not observed among participants receiving interactive imagery training. The fact that these effects were not mediated by age group counts against the view that younger individuals are either unable to rehearse, or show impoverished verbal serial recall because they do not spontaneously engage in rehearsal.

Low Fruit/Vegetable Consumption in the Home: Cumulative Risk Factors in Early Childhood

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Wendy L.; Swindle, Taren M.; Kyzer, Angela L.; Whiteside-Mansell, Leanne

2015-01-01

Cumulative risk theory suggests that a variety of social risk factors would have an additive effect on obesity risk. Multiple studies have suggested that obesity is related to basic resources such as transportation and financial resources. Additional research points to parental engagement and parental monitoring as additional sources of risk. This…

Lifetime stress cumulatively programs brain transcriptome and impedes stroke recovery: benefit of sensory stimulation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabíola C R Zucchi

Full Text Available Prenatal stress (PS represents a critical variable affecting lifetime health trajectories, metabolic and vascular functions. Beneficial experiences may attenuate the effects of PS and its programming of health outcomes in later life. Here we investigated in a rat model (1 if PS modulates recovery following cortical ischemia in adulthood; (2 if a second hit by adult stress (AS exaggerates stress responses and ischemic damage; and (3 if tactile stimulation (TS attenuates the cumulative effects of PS and AS. Prenatally stressed and non-stressed adult male rats underwent focal ischemic motor cortex lesion and were tested in skilled reaching and skilled walking tasks. Two groups of rats experienced recurrent restraint stress in adulthood and one of these groups also underwent daily TS therapy. Animals that experienced both PS and AS displayed the most severe motor disabilities after lesion. By contrast, TS promoted recovery from ischemic lesion and reduced hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity. The data also showed that cumulative effects of adverse and beneficial lifespan experiences interact with disease outcomes and brain plasticity through the modulation of gene expression. Microarray analysis of the lesion motor cortex revealed that cumulative PS and AS interact with genes related to growth factors and transcription factors, which were not affected by PS or lesion alone. TS in PS+AS animals reverted these changes, suggesting a critical role for these factors in activity-dependent motor cortical reorganization after ischemic lesion. These findings suggest that beneficial experience later in life can moderate adverse consequences of early programming to improve cerebrovascular health.

Novel Method of Weighting Cumulative Helmet Impacts Improves Correlation with Brain White Matter Changes After One Football Season of Sub-concussive Head Blows.

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Merchant-Borna, Kian; Asselin, Patrick; Narayan, Darren; Abar, Beau; Jones, Courtney M C; Bazarian, Jeffrey J

2016-12-01

One football season of sub-concussive head blows has been shown to be associated with subclinical white matter (WM) changes on diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Prior research analyses of helmet-based impact metrics using mean and peak linear and rotational acceleration showed relatively weak correlations to these WM changes; however, these analyses failed to account for the emerging concept that neuronal vulnerability to successive hits is inversely related to the time between hits (TBH). To develop a novel method for quantifying the cumulative effects of sub-concussive head blows during a single season of collegiate football by weighting helmet-based impact measures for time between helmet impacts. We further aim to compare correlations to changes in DTI after one season of collegiate football using weighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures to correlations using non-weighted cumulative helmet-based impact measures and non-cumulative measures. We performed a secondary analysis of DTI and helmet impact data collected on ten Division III collegiate football players during the 2011 season. All subjects underwent diffusion MR imaging before the start of the football season and within 1 week of the end of the football season. Helmet impacts were recorded at each practice and game using helmet-mounted accelerometers, which computed five helmet-based impact measures for each hit: linear acceleration (LA), rotational acceleration (RA), Gadd Severity Index (GSI), Head Injury Criterion (HIC 15 ), and Head Impact Technology severity profile (HITsp). All helmet-based impact measures were analyzed using five methods of summary: peak and mean (non-cumulative measures), season sum-totals (cumulative unweighted measures), and season sum-totals weighted for time between hits (TBH), the interval of time from hit to post-season DTI assessment (TUA), and both TBH and TUA combined. Summarized helmet-based impact measures were correlated to statistically significant changes in

Cumulative total effective whole-body radiation dose in critically ill patients.

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Rohner, Deborah J; Bennett, Suzanne; Samaratunga, Chandrasiri; Jewell, Elizabeth S; Smith, Jeffrey P; Gaskill-Shipley, Mary; Lisco, Steven J

2013-11-01

Uncertainty exists about a safe dose limit to minimize radiation-induced cancer. Maximum occupational exposure is 20 mSv/y averaged over 5 years with no more than 50 mSv in any single year. Radiation exposure to the general population is less, but the average dose in the United States has doubled in the past 30 years, largely from medical radiation exposure. We hypothesized that patients in a mixed-use surgical ICU (SICU) approach or exceed this limit and that trauma patients were more likely to exceed 50 mSv because of frequent diagnostic imaging. Patients admitted into 15 predesignated SICU beds in a level I trauma center during a 30-day consecutive period were prospectively observed. Effective dose was determined using Huda's method for all radiography, CT imaging, and fluoroscopic examinations. Univariate and multivariable linear regressions were used to analyze the relationships between observed values and outcomes. Five of 74 patients (6.8%) exceeded exposures of 50 mSv. Univariate analysis showed trauma designation, length of stay, number of CT scans, fluoroscopy minutes, and number of general radiographs were all associated with increased doses, leading to exceeding occupational exposure limits. In a multivariable analysis, only the number of CT scans and fluoroscopy minutes remained significantly associated with increased whole-body radiation dose. Radiation levels frequently exceeded occupational exposure standards. CT imaging contributed the most exposure. Health-care providers must practice efficient stewardship of radiologic imaging in all critically ill and injured patients. Diagnostic benefit must always be weighed against the risk of cumulative radiation dose.

Transmission fidelity is the key to the build-up of cumulative culture.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Hannah M; Laland, Kevin N

2012-08-05

Many animals have socially transmitted behavioural traditions, but human culture appears unique in that it is cumulative, i.e. human cultural traits increase in diversity and complexity over time. It is often suggested that high-fidelity cultural transmission is necessary for cumulative culture to occur through refinement, a process known as 'ratcheting', but this hypothesis has never been formally evaluated. We discuss processes of information transmission and loss of traits from a cognitive viewpoint alongside other cultural processes of novel invention (generation of entirely new traits), modification (refinement of existing traits) and combination (bringing together two established traits to generate a new trait). We develop a simple cultural transmission model that does not assume major evolutionary changes (e.g. in brain architecture) and show that small changes in the fidelity with which information is passed between individuals can lead to cumulative culture. In comparison, modification and combination have a lesser influence on, and novel invention appears unimportant to, the ratcheting process. Our findings support the idea that high-fidelity transmission is the key driver of human cumulative culture, and that progress in cumulative culture depends more on trait combination than novel invention or trait modification.

Structure functions and particle production in the cumulative region: two different exponentials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braun, M.; Vechernin, V.

1997-01-01

In the framework of the recently proposed (QCD-based parton model for the cumulative phenomena in the interactions with nuclei two mechanisms for particle production, direct and spectator ones, are analyzed. It is shown that due to final-state interactions the leading terms of the direct mechanism contribution are cancelled and the spectator mechanism is the dominant one. It leads to a smaller slope of the cumulative particle production rates compared to the slope of the nuclear structure function in the cumulative region x ≥ 1, in agreement with the recent experimental data

Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Querbes, A.; Vaesen, K.; Houkes, W.N.

2014-01-01

Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological

Fragmentation of tensor polarized deuterons into cumulative pions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afanas'ev, S.; Arkhipov, V.; Bondarev, V.

1998-01-01

The tensor analyzing power T 20 of the reaction d polarized + A → π - (0 0 ) + X has been measured in the fragmentation of 9 GeV tensor polarized deuterons into pions with momenta from 3.5 to 5.3 GeV/c on hydrogen, beryllium and carbon targets. This kinematic range corresponds to the region of cumulative hadron production with the cumulative variable x c from 1.08 to 1.76. The values of T 20 have been found to be small and consistent with positive values. This contradicts the predictions based on a direct mechanism assuming NN collision between a high momentum nucleon in the deuteron and a target nucleon (NN → NNπ)

Children neglected: Where cumulative risk theory fails.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Hara, Mandy; Legano, Lori; Homel, Peter; Walker-Descartes, Ingrid; Rojas, Mary; Laraque, Danielle

2015-07-01

Neglected children, by far the majority of children maltreated, experience an environment most deficient in cognitive stimulation and language exchange. When physical abuse co-occurs with neglect, there is more stimulation through negative parent-child interaction, which may lead to better cognitive outcomes, contrary to Cumulative Risk Theory. The purpose of the current study was to assess whether children only neglected perform worse on cognitive tasks than children neglected and physically abused. Utilizing LONGSCAN archived data, 271 children only neglected and 101 children neglected and physically abused in the first four years of life were compared. The two groups were assessed at age 6 on the WPPSI-R vocabulary and block design subtests, correlates of cognitive intelligence. Regression analyses were performed, controlling for additional predictors of poor cognitive outcome, including socioeconomic variables and caregiver depression. Children only neglected scored significantly worse than children neglected and abused on the WPPSI-R vocabulary subtest (p=0.03). The groups did not differ on the block design subtest (p=0.4). This study shows that for neglected children, additional abuse may not additively accumulate risk when considering intelligence outcomes. Children experiencing only neglect may need to be referred for services that address cognitive development, with emphasis on the linguistic environment, in order to best support the developmental challenges of neglected children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulative effects of repeated exposure to pO2 = 200 kPa (2 atm).

Science.gov (United States)

Shykoff, Barbara E

2014-01-01

Even asymptomatic exposures to elevated oxygen partial pressure (pO2) can influence subsequent exposures. Dry chamber dives of three hours' duration at pO2 of 200 kPa were conducted to examine cumulative effects. Experiments were single (n = 27), or paired exposures with surface intervals (SIs) 15 to 17 hours (n = 30), six hours (n = 33), or three hours (n = 36). Flow-volume loops, diffusing capacity, and symptoms were recorded before and after exposures. Immediately after surfacing from second exposures, some significant (p < 0.05) mean changes from baseline in pulmonary function indices occurred for all SIs and persisted for two days for three-hour SIs and for one day for 15-hour SIs. Incidences of symptoms were 15% immediately after one exposure and 28%, 38% and 31% immediately after a second exposure following 15-, six- , or three-hour SIs, respectively. Incidences of changes in pulmonary function indices (deltaPF) were 5%, 11%, 12% and 14% for single exposures or two with 15-, six-, or three-hour SIs, respectively. Two days following the second exposure, resolution of symptoms was incomplete after six- or 15-hour SIs, as was resolution of deltaPF after 15-hour SIs. The incidences indicate non-linear superposition of effects of a first and second exposure, and are not readily explained by delayed-onset injury.

Cumulative trauma disorders: A review.

Science.gov (United States)

Iqbal, Zaheen A; Alghadir, Ahmad H

2017-08-03

Cumulative trauma disorder (CTD) is a term for various injuries of the musculoskeletal and nervous systems that are caused by repetitive tasks, forceful exertions, vibrations, mechanical compression or sustained postures. Although there are many studies citing incidence of CTDs, there are fewer articles about its etiology, pathology and management. The aim of our study was to discuss the etiology, pathogenesis, prevention and management of CTDs. A literature search was performed using various electronic databases. The search was limited to articles in English language pertaining to randomized clinical trials, cohort studies and systematic reviews of CTDs. A total of 180 papers were identified to be relevant published since 1959. Out of these, 125 papers reported about its incidence and 50 about its conservative treatment. Workplace environment, same task repeatability and little variability, decreased time for rest, increase in expectations are major factors for developing CTDs. Prevention of its etiology and early diagnosis can be the best to decrease its incidence and severity. For effective management of CTDs, its treatment should be divided into Primordial, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary prevention.

Cumulative risk exposure moderates the association between parasympathetic reactivity and inhibitory control in preschool-age children.

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliano, Ryan J; Roos, Leslie E; Farrar, Jessica D; Skowron, Elizabeth A

2018-04-01

A child's cumulative risk for early exposure to stress has been linked to alterations of self-regulation outcomes, including neurobiological correlates of inhibitory control (IC). We examined whether children's ability to engage the parasympathetic nervous system impacts how risk affects IC. Children ages 3-5 years completed two laboratory measures of IC while respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) was measured, indexing parasympathetic activity. Children with greater risk demonstrated lower IC; risk also moderated associations between RSA reactivity and IC. For children with less risk, greater RSA withdrawal during IC tasks was associated with better IC. In contrast, greater risk was associated with poor IC, regardless of RSA withdrawal. Effects of risk were more pronounced for cumulative than individual measures. Results suggest that cumulative risk exposure disrupts connectivity between physiological and behavioral components of self-regulation in early childhood. Parasympathetic withdrawal to cognitive tasks may be less relevant for performance in developmental samples experiencing greater life stress. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Study of cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts with nonlinear output frequency response functions based on NARMAX modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Honglan; Mao, Hanying; Mao, Hanling; Zheng, Weixue; Huang, Zhenfeng; Li, Xinxin; Wang, Xianghong

2017-12-01

Cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts plays a key role in the process of remanufacturing engineering and is related to the service safety of the remanufactured parts. In light of the nonlinear properties of used parts caused by cumulative fatigue damage, the based nonlinear output frequency response functions detection approach offers a breakthrough to solve this key problem. First, a modified PSO-adaptive lasso algorithm is introduced to improve the accuracy of the NARMAX model under impulse hammer excitation, and then, an effective new algorithm is derived to estimate the nonlinear output frequency response functions under rectangular pulse excitation, and a based nonlinear output frequency response functions index is introduced to detect the cumulative fatigue damage in used parts. Then, a novel damage detection approach that integrates the NARMAX model and the rectangular pulse is proposed for nonlinear output frequency response functions identification and cumulative fatigue damage detection of used parts. Finally, experimental studies of fatigued plate specimens and used connecting rod parts are conducted to verify the validity of the novel approach. The obtained results reveal that the new approach can detect cumulative fatigue damages of used parts effectively and efficiently and that the various values of the based nonlinear output frequency response functions index can be used to detect the different fatigue damages or working time. Since the proposed new approach can extract nonlinear properties of systems by only a single excitation of the inspected system, it shows great promise for use in remanufacturing engineering applications.

Exact probability distribution function for the volatility of cumulative production

Science.gov (United States)

Zadourian, Rubina; Klümper, Andreas

2018-04-01

In this paper we study the volatility and its probability distribution function for the cumulative production based on the experience curve hypothesis. This work presents a generalization of the study of volatility in Lafond et al. (2017), which addressed the effects of normally distributed noise in the production process. Due to its wide applicability in industrial and technological activities we present here the mathematical foundation for an arbitrary distribution function of the process, which we expect will pave the future research on forecasting of the production process.

Steps and pips in the history of the cumulative recorder.

OpenAIRE

Lattal, Kennon A

2004-01-01

From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This review traces the evolution of the cumulative recorder from Skinner's early modified kymographs through various models developed by Skinner and his co...

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF CUMULATIVE WATER BALANCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY COMPLICATIONS AFTER MAJOR ABDOMINAL SURGERY.

Science.gov (United States)

Musaeva, T S; Karipidi, M K; Zabolotskikh, I B

2016-11-01

a comprehensive assessment of the water balance on the basis of daily, cumulative balance and 10% of the body weight gain and their role in the development of early complications after major abdominal surgery. A retrospective study of the perioperative period in 150 patients who underwent major abdomi- nal surgery was performed. The physical condition of the patients corresponded to ASA 3 class. The average age was 46 (38-62) years. The following stages ofresearch: an analysis of daily balance and cumulative balance in complicated and uncomplicated group and their role in the development of complications; the timing of development ofcomplications and possible relationship with fluid overload and the development of complications; changes in the level of albumin within 10 days of the postoperative period. The analysis of complications didn't show significant differences between complicated and uncomplicated groups according to the water balance during the surgery and by the end of the first day. When constructing the area under the ROC curve (A UROC) low resolution ofthe balance in intraoperative period and the first day and the balance on the second day to predict complications was shown. Significant diferences according to the cumulative balance was observed from the third day of the postoperative period Also with the third day of the postoperative period there is a good resolution for prediction ofpostoperative complications according to the cumulative balance with the cut-offpoint > of 50,7 ml/kg. the excessive infusion therapy is a predictor of adverse outcome in patients after major abdominal surgery. Therefore, after 3 days of postoperative period it is important to maintain mechanisms for the excretion of excess fluid or limitations of infusion therapy.

Materials properties utilization in a cumulative mechanical damage function for LMFBR fuel pin failure analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobs, D.C.

1977-01-01

An overview is presented of one of the fuel-pin analysis techniques used in the CRBRP program, the cumulative mechanical damage function. This technique, as applied to LMFBR's, was developed along with the majority of models used to describe the mechanical properties and environmental behavior of the cladding (i.e., 20 percent cold-worked, 316 stainless steel). As it relates to fuel-pin analyses the Cumulative Mechanical Damage Function (CDF) continually monitors cladding integrity through steady state and transient operation; it is a time dependent function of temperature and stress which reflects the effects of both the prior mechanical history and the variations in mechanical properties caused by exposure to the reactor environment

Parafunctional habits are associated cumulatively to painful temporomandibular disorders in adolescents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovana FERNANDES

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract This cross-sectional study was designed to evaluate the effect of sleep bruxism, awake bruxism and parafunctional habits, both separately and cumulatively, on the likelihood of adolescents to present painful TMD. The study was conducted on a sample of 1,094 adolescents (aged 12-14. The presence of painful TMD was assessed using the Research Diagnostic Criteria for Temporomandibular Disorders, Axis I. Data on sleep bruxism, awake bruxism and parafunctional habits (nail/pen/pencil/lip/cheek biting, resting one’s head on one’s hand, and gum chewing were researched by self-report. After adjusting for potential demographic confounders using logistic regression, each of the predictor variables (sleep bruxism, awake bruxism and parafunctional habits was significantly associated with painful TMD. In addition, the odds for painful TMD were higher in the concomitant presence of two (OR=4.6, [95%CI=2.06, 10.37] or three predictor (OR=13.7, [95%CI=5.72, 32.96] variables. These findings indicate that the presence of concomitant muscle activities during sleep and awake bruxism and parafunctional habits increases the likelihood almost linearly of adolescents to present painful TMD.

Do risk factors for problem behaviour act in a cumulative manner? An examination of ethnic minority and majority children through an ecological perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Atzaba-Poria, Naama; Pike, Alison; Deater-Deckard, Kirby

2004-05-01

Extensive research has identified risk factors for problem behaviour in childhood. However, most of this research has focused on isolated variables, ignoring possible additive influences. The purpose of this study was to examine whether risk factors for problem behaviour act in a cumulative manner, and to investigate whether cumulative risk stemming from distinct ecological levels (Bronfenbrenner, 1979) differentially influences the manifestation of problem behaviours in middle childhood. In addition, ethnic differences between minority (i.e., Indian) and majority (i.e., English) families were examined. The sample consisted of 125 children (59 English and 66 of Indian origin) between the ages of 7 and 9.6 (M = 8.51, SD = 0.62) and their parents. Both mothers and fathers completed questionnaires regarding the children's problem behaviour and provided reports of the children's characteristics and environment. Children were also assessed and provided reports about themselves and their relationships. Finally, parent-child mutuality and parenting behaviour were coded from a videotaped parent-child interaction task. Risk factors acted in a cumulative manner - the more risk children experienced, the more problem behaviour they exhibited. Total problem behaviour was predicted by all three levels: individual, microsystem and exosystem. However, externalising problems were mainly predicted by microsystem-level cumulative risk, whereas internalising problems were predicted by both individual-level cumulative risk and exosystem-level cumulative risk. These results were similar for both ethnic groups. The support for the cumulative hypothesis highlights the importance of having a broad picture of children's characteristics and environmental components when analysing children's adjustment. The distinct influence of risk stemming from the different ecological levels suggests that the trajectories of internalising, externalising and total problem behaviour may be different.

Cumulative dose 60Co gamma irradiation effects on AlGaN/GaN Schottky diodes and its area dependence

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Chandan; Laishram, Robert; Rawal, Dipendra Singh; Vinayak, Seema; Singh, Rajendra

2018-04-01

Cumulative dose gamma radiation effects on current-voltage characteristics of GaN Schottky diodes have been investigated. The different area diodes have been fabricated on AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistor (HEMT) epi-layer structure grown over SiC substrate and irradiated with a dose up to the order of 104 Gray (Gy). Post irradiation characterization shows a shift in the turn-on voltage and improvement in reverse leakage current. Other calculated parameters include Schottky barrier height, ideality factor and reverse saturation current. Schottky barrier height has been decreased whereas reverse saturation current shows an increase in the value post irradiation with improvement in the ideality factor. Transfer length measurement (TLM) characterization shows an improvement in the contact resistance. Finally, diodes with larger area have more variation in the calculated parameters due to the induced local heating effect.

Unraveling the Link between Trauma and Male Delinquency: The Cumulative Versus Differential Risk Perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Maschi, Tina

2006-01-01

This study examined how the cumulative (additive) versus differential (individual) effects of trauma influenced male delinquency. Using a comprehensive measure of trauma, a secondary data analysis was conducted on a nationally representative sample of male youths between the ages of 12 and 17. Logistic regression analyses revealed that all three…

The paca that roared: Immediate cumulative semantic interference among newly acquired words.

Science.gov (United States)

Oppenheim, Gary M

2018-08-01

With 40,000 words in the average vocabulary, how can speakers find the specific words that they want so quickly and easily? Cumulative semantic interference in language production provides a clue: when naming a large series of pictures, with a few mammals sprinkled about, naming each subsequent mammal becomes slower and more error-prone. Such interference mirrors predictions from an incremental learning algorithm applied to meaning-driven retrieval from an established vocabulary, suggesting retrieval benefits from a constant, implicit, re-optimization process (Oppenheim et al., 2010). But how quickly would a new mammal (e.g. paca) engage in this re-optimization? In this experiment, 18 participants studied 3 novel and 3 familiar exemplars from each of six semantic categories, and immediately performed a timed picture-naming task. Consistent with the learning model's predictions, naming latencies revealed immediate cumulative semantic interference in all directions: from new words to new words, from new words to old words, from old words to new words, and from old words to old words. Repeating the procedure several days later produced similar-magnitude effects, demonstrating that newly acquired words can be immediately semantically integrated, at least to the extent necessary to produce typical cumulative semantic interference. These findings extend the Dark Side model's scope to include novel word production, and are considered in terms of mechanisms for lexical selection. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Excess mortality in treated and untreated hyperthyroidism is related to cumulative periods of low serum TSH

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lillevang-Johansen, Mads; Abrahamsen, Bo; Jørgensen, Henrik Løvendahl

2017-01-01

Introduction and Aim: Cumulative time-dependent excess mortality in hyperthyroid patients has been suggested. However, the effect of anti-thyroid treatment on mortality, especially in subclinical hyperthyroidism remains unclarified. We investigated the association between hyperthyroidism and mort...

Energy Current Cumulants in One-Dimensional Systems in Equilibrium

Science.gov (United States)

Dhar, Abhishek; Saito, Keiji; Roy, Anjan

2018-06-01

A recent theory based on fluctuating hydrodynamics predicts that one-dimensional interacting systems with particle, momentum, and energy conservation exhibit anomalous transport that falls into two main universality classes. The classification is based on behavior of equilibrium dynamical correlations of the conserved quantities. One class is characterized by sound modes with Kardar-Parisi-Zhang scaling, while the second class has diffusive sound modes. The heat mode follows Lévy statistics, with different exponents for the two classes. Here we consider heat current fluctuations in two specific systems, which are expected to be in the above two universality classes, namely, a hard particle gas with Hamiltonian dynamics and a harmonic chain with momentum conserving stochastic dynamics. Numerical simulations show completely different system-size dependence of current cumulants in these two systems. We explain this numerical observation using a phenomenological model of Lévy walkers with inputs from fluctuating hydrodynamics. This consistently explains the system-size dependence of heat current fluctuations. For the latter system, we derive the cumulant-generating function from a more microscopic theory, which also gives the same system-size dependence of cumulants.

Preference, resistance to change, and the cumulative decision model.