WorldWideScience

Sample records for crude oil prices

  1. Record prices [crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2006-01-01

    Crude oil prices climbed to new record levels on fears of a future loss of supplies from Iran as Washington stepped up its efforts to persuade Tehran to abandon its programme to produce nuclear fuel. IPE's December Brent contract set a new record for the exchange by trading at $75.80/bbl on 21st April. On the same day October WTI reached an all-time high of $77.30/bbl on Nymex. US product prices gained as refiners struggled to produce sufficient middle distillate. Alarmed by the rising retail price of gasoline, the US Senate debated a reduction in the already low US tax rate on motor spirit. The House of Representatives passed a measure to prohibit overcharging for petrol, diesel and heating oil, but Democrats rejected a Republican proposal to speed-up the process for approving new refineries. President George W Bush announced a temporary easing of new gasoline and diesel specifications (see 'Focus', March 2006) to allow more fuel to be produced. He also agreed to delay the repayment of some 2.1 mn bbl of crude oil lent to companies after last year's hurricanes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. California announced an inquiry into alleged overcharging for fuel by oil companies operating in the state. (author)

  2. The price of crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakhtiari, A.M.S.

    1999-01-01

    The price of crude oil is among the most important prices quoted daily across the world - which is not surprising, since crude oil is the most widely used source of energy worldwide, as well as being a unique commodity. When petroleum burst onto the world stage in 1859, its price first went through some initial gyrations (1860-70), before settling in the $1.00 - 2.00 per barrel range (barring a few exceptions) for a full century. Then, the price underwent two 'shocks' (1973 and 1980), followed by the 'counter-shock' of 1986. Thereafter, the price entered the relative stability of the $15 - 20 /b consensus, where it lingered until recently. Some day, there is bound to be a fresh paradigm of 'insufficient oil reserves', thus ushering in a new era for oil prices. Taking into consideration available data on reserves and expert analysis, it would seem that that day may be years rather than decades away

  3. OPEC's optimal crude oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horn, Manfred

    2004-01-01

    OPEC decided to stabilise oil prices within a range of 22-28 US Dollar/barrel of crude oil. Such an oil-price-level is far beyond the short and long run marginal costs of oil production, beyond even that in regions with particularly high costs. Nevertheless, OPEC may achieve its goal if world demand for oil increases substantially in the future and oil resources outside the OPEC are not big enough to accordingly increase production. In this case OPEC, which controls about 78% of world oil reserves, has to supply a large share of that demand increase. If we assume OPEC will behave as a partial monopolist on the oil market, which takes into consideration the reaction of the other producers to its own sales strategy, it can reach its price target. Lower prices before 2020 are probable only if the OPEC cartel breaks up. Higher prices are possible if production outside OPEC is inelastic as assumed by some geologists, but they would probably stimulate the production of unconventional oil based on oil sand or coal. Crude oil prices above 30 US Dollar/barrel are therefore probably not sustainable for a long period. (Author)

  4. The dynamics of crude oil price differentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fattouh, Bassam

    2010-01-01

    Crude oil price differentials are modelled as a two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) process using the method proposed by Caner and Hansen [Caner, M., Hansen, B.E. Threshold autoregression with a unit root. Econometrica 2001; 69; 1555-1596.]. While standard unit root tests suggest that the prices of crude oil of different varieties move closely together such that their price differential is stationary, the TAR results indicate strong evidence of threshold effects in the adjustment process to the long-run equilibrium. These findings suggest that crude oil prices are linked and thus at the very general level, the oil market is 'one great pool' (Adelman, M.A. International oil agreements. The Energy Journal 1984; 5; 1-9.). However, differences in the dynamics of adjustment suggest that within this one pool, oil markets are not necessarily integrated in every time period and hence the dynamics of crude oil price differentials may not follow a stationary process at all times. Although the development of a liquid futures market around the crude oil benchmarks has helped make some distant markets more unified, arbitrage is not costless or risk-free and temporary breakdowns in the benchmarks can lead to decoupling of crude oil prices. (author)

  5. Crude oil spot market pricing: Pearsonian analysis of crude oil spot market prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akinnusi, Ayo

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief overview of crude oil pricing before describing a study of sets of 1991 spot market prices, and examining Pearson's model. Empirical distribution characteristics for 14 crude oils are tabulated, and skewness-kurtosis relationship and implication are considered. (UK)

  6. Application of Markov Model in Crude Oil Price Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuhu Isah

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil is an important energy commodity to mankind. Several causes have made crude oil prices to be volatile. The fluctuation of crude oil prices has affected many related sectors and stock market indices. Hence, forecasting the crude oil prices is essential to avoid the future prices of the non-renewable natural resources to rise. In this study, daily crude oil prices data was obtained from WTI dated 2 January to 29 May 2015. We used Markov Model (MM approach in forecasting the crude oil prices. In this study, the analyses were done using EViews and Maple software where the potential of this software in forecasting daily crude oil prices time series data was explored. Based on the study, we concluded that MM model is able to produce accurate forecast based on a description of history patterns in crude oil prices.

  7. Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

    Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

  8. Evaluating the US government's crude oil price projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, M.D.

    1992-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) 1991 official long run crude oil price projections are evaluated by comparing parameter averages for the forecast period (1991-2010) to parameter averages from crude oil price history (1859-1990). The parameters used in the evaluation are average price, average annual price changes, and average cycle duration (in years). All prices used in the analysis are annual prices in constant 1990 dollars per barrel. 13 figs

  9. Crude oil prices: It's not like '86

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, M.R.

    1994-01-01

    In 1981, daily crude oil productive capacity exceeded demand by more than 25%, leading to a 4-yr price decline from near $40 per barrel levels, and a sharp drop in 1986 to near $12. But, in 1994, the fundamentals are reversed, worldwide demand is growing, conservation movements are not active, and certain geographic areas, like Asia, are set to tax the system as they modernize. Meanwhile, US and Former Soviet Union production is off, without prospects for near-term turnaround. And there is reason to believe OPEC leaders may not feel compelled to cut their output, when combined small cuts of the magnitude of 5% by the rest of the world's producers could accomplish the same objective of raising oil prices. As with any forecast, only time and hindsight will tell the real story, but 1994 could end up being one of the periodic turning points for what has always been a long-term cyclical industry. This paper summarizes the predictions and causes of predicted price changes

  10. Crude oil pricing report, issue 89, December 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This report is prepared by the Canadian Oil Markets and Emergency Planning Division (COMEP), Energy, Mines and Resources Canada. It provides a reference for domestic and imported crude oil prices in Canadian markets and illustrates the competitive position of Canadian crude in the U.S. market. The information in this report is in part based on the Crude Oil Pricing Survey (COPS), conducted by COMEP, of Canadian refiners' domestic crude oil purchases, refinery receipts, imports and data from trade publications as well as industry pricing bulletins. 8 tabs

  11. What about oil reserve depletion and crude oil price evolution?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this report is to give a synthesis of different points of view with respect to the 'Peak Oil' perspective and to the crude oil price evolution. In the first part, the authors examine the evolutions and assessments of oil reserves and productions, by discussing the different types of reserve, the optimistic and pessimistic points of views. Then, in the second part, they analyse the long term price formation, the various production technical costs (conventional oils, heavy oils and asphaltic sands, coal- and gas-based synthetic hydrocarbons, bio-fuels), the external costs (notably in relationship with greenhouse emissions), the relationship between geopolitical issues and short and middle term price formation. In the third and last part, they discuss the possible evolutions and scenarios in terms of demand, production, and prices

  12. Crude oil prices: Are our oil markets too tight?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, M.R.

    1997-01-01

    The answer to the question posed in the title is that tightness in the market will surely prevail through 1997. And as discussed herein, with worldwide demand expected to continue to grow, there will be a strong call on extra oil supply. Meeting those demands, however, will not be straightforward--as many observers wrongly believe--considering the industry's practice of maintaining crude stocks at ''Just in time'' inventory levels. Further, impact will be felt from the growing rig shortage, particularly for deepwater units, and down-stream capacity limits. While these factors indicate 1997 should be another good year for the service industry, it is difficult to get any kind of consensus view from the oil price market. With most observers' information dominated by the rarely optimistic futures price of crude, as reflected by the NYMEX, the important fact is that oil prices have remained stable for three years and increased steadily through 1996

  13. Explaining crude oil prices using fundamental measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, Les

    2012-01-01

    Oil is the world's most important commodity, and improving the understanding of drivers of its price is a longstanding research objective. This article analyses real oil prices during 1984–2007 using a monthly dataset of fundamental and market parameters that cover financial markets, global economic growth, demand and supply of oil, and geopolitical measures. The innovation is to incorporate proxies for speculative and terrorist activity and dummies for major industry events, and quantify price impacts of each. New findings are positive links between oil prices and speculative activity, bond yields, an interaction term incorporating OPEC market share and OECD import dependence, and the number of US troops and frequency of terrorist attacks in the Middle East. Shocks also prove significant with a $6–18 per barrel impact on price for several months. - Highlights: ► Article introduces new variables to the study of oil prices. ► New variables are terrorist incidents and military activity, and oil futures market size. ► Shocks prove important affecting prices by $6–18 per barrel for several months. ► OPEC market influence rises with OECD import dependence.

  14. Crude oil hedging: benchmarking price protection strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krapels, Edward N.; Pratt, Michael

    1998-01-01

    This report presents a review of hedging (protection against a loss) strategies in the crude oil futures and options markets. The introductory section of the report gives details of hedging instruments, and the purposes of hedging crude oil. Hedging strategies including pure futures strategies, pure options strategies, options combination strategies, exotic (Asian) options strategies, and insurance instruments are described. The West Texas intermediate (WTI) market depth, liquidity and hedging effectiveness are examined, and winners and losers, and energy consumers are considered. The appendix gives tables and charts summarising the outcomes of futures and options strategies under different market conditions and expectations. (UK)

  15. Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DrNneka

    Second, since Hamilton (1983) documented the impact of crude oil price volatility .... Hariri,2013) sourced from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). .... is explained by identifying the relative importance of a variable in generating.

  16. Pricing and crude oil self-sufficiency. [Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-11-01

    How Canada should go about achieving crude oil self-sufficiency and who should develop Canada's petroleum resources are discussed. The degree of urgency and the level of commitment required by government, industry, and consumers are evaluated. What the price should be of Canadian crude oil and who should establish this price are also discussed. The economic aspects of investment, return, and taxation are also included. (DC)

  17. Separated influence of crude oil prices on regional natural gas import prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, Qiang; Geng, Jiang-Bo; Fan, Ying

    2014-01-01

    This paper analyses the impact of global economic activity and international crude oil prices on natural gas import prices in three major natural gas markets using the panel cointegration model. It also investigates the shock impacts of the volatility and the increase and decrease of oil prices on regional natural gas import prices. The results show that both global economic activity and international crude oil prices have significant long-term positive effects on regional natural gas import prices. The volatility of international crude oil prices has a negative impact on regional natural gas import prices. The shock impact is weak in North America, lags in Europe and is most significant in Asia, which is mainly determined by different regional policies for price formation. In addition, the response of natural gas import prices to increases and decreases in international crude oil prices shows an asymmetrical mechanism, of which the decrease impact is relatively stronger. - Highlights: • Impacts of world economy and oil prices on regional natural gas prices are analysed • North American natural gas prices are mainly affected by world economy • Asian and European natural gas prices are mainly affected by oil prices • The volatility of oil prices has a negative impact on regional natural gas prices • The response of natural gas import prices to oil prices up and down shows asymmetry

  18. OPEC announcements and their effects on crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Sharon Xiaowen; Tamvakis, Michael

    2010-01-01

    We investigate evidence on the effects of OPEC announcements on world oil prices by examining announcements from both official conferences and ministerial meetings on major international crudes, including the key benchmarks and several other heavy and light grades. With data from 1982 to 2008, we use event study methodology and find differentiation in the magnitude and significance of market responses to OPEC quota decisions under different price bands. We also find some (weak) evidence of differentiation between light and heavy crude grades. (author)

  19. Price dynamics of crude oil and the regional ethylene markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masih, Mansur; Algahtani, Ibrahim; De Mello, Lurion

    2010-01-01

    This paper is the first attempt to investigate: (1) is the crude oil (WTI) price significantly related to the regional ethylene prices in the Naphtha intensive ethylene markets of the Far East, North West Europe, and the Mediterranean? (2) What drives the regional ethylene prices? The paper is motivated by the recent and growing debate on the lead-lag relationship between crude oil and ethylene prices. Our findings, based on the long-run structural modelling approach of Pesaran and Shin, and subject to the limitations of the study, tend to suggest: (1) crude oil (WTI) price is cointegrated with the regional ethylene prices (2) our within-sample error-correction model results tend to indicate that although the ethylene prices in North West Europe and the Mediterranean were weakly endogenous, the Far East ethylene price was weakly exogenous both in the short and long term. These results are consistent, during most of the period under review (2000.1-2006.4) with the surge in demand for ethylene throughout the Far East, particularly in China and South Korea. However, during the post-sample forecast period as evidenced in our variance decompositions analysis, the emergence of WTI as a leading player as well, is consistent with the recent surge in WTI price (fuelled mainly, among others, by the strong hedging activities in the WTI futures/options and refining tightness) reflecting the growing importance of input cost in determining the dynamic interactions of input and product prices. (author)

  20. Global economic activity and crude oil prices. A cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Yanan; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung

    2010-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the cointegrating relationship between crude oil prices and global economic activity. The Kilian economic index is used as an indicator of global economic activity. Based on a supply-demand framework and the cointegration theory, we find that real futures prices of crude oil are cointegrated with the Kilian economic index and a trade weighted US dollar index, and crude oil prices are influenced significantly by fluctuations in the Kilian economic index through both long-run equilibrium conditions and short-run impacts. We also develop an empirically stable, data-coherent and single-equation error-correction model (ECM) which has sensible economic properties. Empirical results based on the ECM show that the adjustment implied by a permanent change in the Kilian economic index is a relatively drawn-out process. (author)

  1. Improving the Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuluo Yin

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Currently, oil is the key element of energy sustainability, and its prices and economy have a strong mutual influence. Modeling a good method to accurately predict oil prices over long future horizons is challenging and of great interest to investors and policymakers. This paper forecasts oil prices using many predictor variables with a new time-varying weight combination approach. In doing so, we first use five single-variable time-varying parameter models to predict crude oil prices separately. Second, every special model is assigned a time-varying weight by the new combination approach. Finally, the forecasting results of oil prices are calculated. The results show that the paper’s method is robust and performs well compared to random walk.

  2. Crude oil pricing in Asia and future problems; Asia no gen`yu pricing to kongo no kadai

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kato, T. [The Institute of Energy Economics, Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-01-30

    This paper describes pricing factors of crude oil for Asia and future problems. Price of the Middle East crude oil for Asia is determined by linking the spot price of Dubayy crude oil using as a marker. Factors affecting the pricing of marker crude oil include the information dispatching functions for prices of spot market and paper market of marker crude oil, the presence of competitive crude oil, and the correlation between market of oil products and price of crude oil. The paper market of Dubayy crude oil with a small scale of trading provides poor impact and transparency. In Asia, there is no strong competitive crude oil except the Middle East crude oil. There is only a weak price linking between crude oil and products. These are the background that the price of Middle East crude oil stays at the high level and the price adjusting functions are hard to work. The marker crude oil should be changed to another except Dubayy crude oil, and information should be dispatched from purchasers based on the stable standard crude oil. The real paper market should be created, and the force of speaking to oil producing countries should be enhanced by concentrating forces of major oil consuming countries in Asia. It is necessary to find out competitive crude oils. 5 figs., 6 tabs.

  3. The composite barrel of retail prices and its relationship to crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balabanoff, S.

    1993-01-01

    This paper challenges assumptions about the relationship between refinery gate prices, retail prices paid by consumers and crude oil prices. The analysis presented here considers their relationship within the context of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC's) composite barrel statistics, which includes taxes and other government policy effects on prices. Speed of adjustment and retail price response to taxes are analysed with respect to crude import prices. OPEC's composite barrel is explained and evaluated. Test results are summarized. (UK)

  4. Price Relationships in the Petroleum Market: An Analysis of Crude Oil and Refined Product Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asche, Frank; Gjoelberg, Ole; Voelker, Teresa

    2001-08-01

    In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes. (author)

  5. Price relationships in the petroleum market. An analysis of crude oil and refined product prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asche, Frank; Gjoelberg, Ole; Volker, Teresa

    2003-01-01

    In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes

  6. Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asche, F.; Gjoelberg, O.; Voelker, T.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices are investigated in a multivariate framework. This allows us to test several (partly competing) assumptions of earlier studies. In particular, we find that the crude oil price is weakly exogenous and that the spread is constant in some but not all relationships. Moreover, the multivariate analysis shows that the link between crude oil prices and several refined product prices implies market integration for these refined products. This is an example of supply driven market integration and producers will change the output mix in response to price changes. (author)

  7. Crude oil prices : how high, how much harm?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levesque, M.; Alexander, C.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discussed the issue of crude oil prices and the economy. Crude oil prices are on the rise due to the recent events in the Middle East. In early April, West Texas Intermediate crude oil climbed to nearly US$28 a barrel. Most of the increase reflects the expectation of stronger world oil demand combined with supply constraints on the part of OPEC. Although there has been some concern expressed that rising oil prices may hinder economic recovery, the authors of this report do not see evidence that rising oil prices would throw economic recovery off course, arguing that the current spike will be short-lived. They stated that even under a worse-case scenario where prices remain inflated, there is little reason to fear for the health of the Canadian economy. OPEC is expected to increase its low production quotas in June. In addition, non-OPEC nations (Russia in particular) are expected to increase oil production in the coming months. The authors also indicated that it is unlikely that conflict in the West Bank will disrupt oil supply because Israel is not an oil-exporting nation. However, oil supply could be affected if other Arab nations were drawn into the issue. It was also noted that military action against Iraq would increase oil prices, possibly as high as US$40 a barrel, but the full extent of this hike in price will probably be unsustainable. In addition, the authors emphasized that the increase in energy costs would not be enough to seriously jeopardize the economic recovery in the United States. As for Canada, it is estimated that a US$10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices would have a small, but positive impact on Canadian GDP because in contrast to the United States, Canada produces much more energy than it consumers. In 2001, Canada ran a trade surplus of $2.8 billion. The report ended by stating that although higher oil prices could add a full percentage point to headline inflation by the end of the year, core inflation is likely to remain

  8. Rockets and Feathers: The Asymmetric Effect between China’s Refined Oil Prices and International Crude Oil Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yufeng Chen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper employs an asymmetric error-correction model (AECM, and uses monthly data on wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel products in China and international crude oil prices from February 2006 to October 2013 to examine whether China’s gasoline and diesel prices adjust asymmetrically to international crude oil price changes. Our empirical results suggest that increases and decreases in international oil prices have asymmetric effects on both wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel fuel in China, and that both increases and decreases in international oil prices have a greater effect on diesel prices than on gasoline prices in China. If there is no change in the maximum retail price, the asymmetry results from the transmission of wholesale prices in China with international oil prices. However, if there is a change in maximum retail prices, both international oil prices and maximum retail prices cause the asymmetry.

  9. The US gasoline situation and crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2004-01-01

    Before and during the United States' summer driving season, concern over the country's gasoline supply can potentially influence the direction of the petroleum market. There are three causes of concern: a persistent lack of gasoline-producing capacity; a patchwork of as many as 18 different kinds of gasoline specifications; and the introduction of stringent new specifications for reformulated gasoline. However, gasoline stocks should be able to meet the needs of this year's driving season, at a time of ample crude oil availability, with strong imports. But, unplanned outages in the US logistics system and refining centres, or major disruptions in external gasoline supplies, could trigger price spikes that would, in turn, lead to frequently stronger crude oil prices, especially with the observed robust oil demand growth in China. (Author)

  10. Crude oil prices: Robust demands strengthens outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, M.R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper briefly summarizes the growth in the global demand for oil products by showing the historical trends in production and demand in developing countries. It shows world incremental production growth from 1985 to 1995 and developing countries's demands from 1971 to 1989. The paper goes on to make predictions as to whether the demand growth rate can be sustained. It provides information on the status of the world offshore drilling and production facilities to determine the capacity of this resource

  11. Does China factor matter? An econometric analysis of international crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Gang; Zhang, Yue-Jun

    2014-01-01

    Whether China’s crude oil imports are the culprit of oil price volatility these years has not been quantitatively confirmed. Therefore, this paper empirically investigates the role of China’s crude oil net imports in Brent price changes from October 2005 to November 2013 based on an econometric analysis. The results indicate that, during the sample period, China’s crude oil imports do not significantly affect Brent price changes, no matter in the long run or short run. Therefore, the blame for China’s crude oil imports to cause the dramatic fluctuations of international oil price has no solid evidence. Also, there exists significant uni-directional causality running from the Brent price to China's crude oil imports at the 5% level. Besides, the response of the Brent price to China's crude oil imports is found positive but slight, and the Brent price responds more significantly to US dollar exchange rate and OECD commercial inventory than to China’s crude oil imports in the short run. Finally, the contribution of China's crude oil imports to Brent price movement is about 10%, which is less than that of US dollar exchange rate but larger than that of Indian crude oil imports or OECD commercial inventory. - Highlights: • The paper detects the role of China’s crude oil imports in Brent oil price changes. • China’s crude imports do not matter for oil prices in the long run or short run. • The blame for China’s crude imports on oil price changes has no solid evidence. • Significant causality runs from Brent prices to China's crude oil net imports. • China's crude imports contribute less to Brent prices than US dollar exchange rate

  12. Economic repercussions of OPEC's crude oil price increases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merklein, H A

    1980-05-01

    Accusations that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) created the world energy crisis and destroyed the economies of oil-importing nations are challenged by Dr. Merklein. He shows that the economic impact of OPEC price increases have only accelerated an already-developing energy shortage and only reflect the existing problems of inflation, unemployment, and declining currency exchange rates. The real problem is argued to be a US energy policy that is incapable of responding appropriately to what should be a manageable crude oil tax. When the arguments against OPEC policies are examined in an historical context, they are shown to be essentially neutral. 4 tables. (DCK)

  13. Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maslyuk, Svetlana; Smyth, Russell

    2008-01-01

    In this article, we examine whether WTI and Brent crude oil spot and futures prices (at 1, 3 and 6 months to maturity) contain a unit root with one and two structural breaks, employing weekly data over the period 1991-2004. To realise this objective we employ Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two endogenous structural breaks proposed by Lee and Strazicich [2003. Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, 1082-1089; 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Working Paper no. 04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University]. We find that each of the oil price series can be characterised as a random walk process and that the endogenous structural breaks are significant and meaningful in terms of events that have impacted on world oil markets

  14. Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atil, Ahmed; Lahiani, Amine; Nguyen, Duc Khuong

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we use the recently developed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to examine the pass-through of crude oil prices into gasoline and natural gas prices. Our approach allows us to simultaneously test the short- and long-run nonlinearities through positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the predetermined explanatory variables. It also offers the possibility to quantify the respective responses of gasoline and natural gas prices to positive and negative oil price shocks from the asymmetric dynamic multipliers. The obtained results indicate that oil prices affect gasoline prices and natural gas prices in an asymmetric and nonlinear manner, but the price transmission mechanism is not the same. Important policy implications can be learned from the empirical findings. - Highlights: • The pass-through of crude oil prices into gasoline and natural gas prices is examined. • We use a NARDL model to test for the long-run and short-run asymmetric reactions. • Both gasoline and natural gas prices significantly adjust to changes in the price of oil. • Negative oil shocks have greater effects than positive oil shocks. • Policy implications are discussed

  15. Alaska North Slope crude oil price and the behavior of diesel prices in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adrangi, B.; Chatrath, A.; Raffiee, K.; Ripple, R.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the price dynamics of Alaska North Slope crude oil and L.A. diesel fuel prices. We employ VAR methodology and bivariate GARCH model to show that there is a strong evidence of a uni-directional causal relationship between the two prices. The L.A. diesel market is found to bear the majority of the burden of convergence when there is a price spread. This finding may be seen as being consistent with the general consensus that price discovery emanates from the larger, more liquid market where trading volume is concentrated. The contestability of the West Coast crude oil market tends to cause it to react relatively competitively, while the lack of contestability for the West Coast diesel market tends to limit its competitiveness, causing price adjustment to be slow but to follow the price signals of crude oil. Our findings also suggest that the derived demand theory of input pricing may not hold in this case. The Alaska North Slope crude oil price is the driving force in changes of L.A. diesel price

  16. Wavelet regression model in forecasting crude oil price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, Mohd Helmie; Shabri, Ani

    2017-05-01

    This study presents the performance of wavelet multiple linear regression (WMLR) technique in daily crude oil forecasting. WMLR model was developed by integrating the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The original time series was decomposed to sub-time series with different scales by wavelet theory. Correlation analysis was conducted to assist in the selection of optimal decomposed components as inputs for the WMLR model. The daily WTI crude oil price series has been used in this study to test the prediction capability of the proposed model. The forecasting performance of WMLR model were also compared with regular multiple linear regression (MLR), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) using root mean square errors (RMSE) and mean absolute errors (MAE). Based on the experimental results, it appears that the WMLR model performs better than the other forecasting technique tested in this study.

  17. Daily Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Hybridizing Wavelet and Artificial Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ani Shabri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A new method based on integrating discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks (WANN model for daily crude oil price forecasting is proposed. The discrete Mallat wavelet transform is used to decompose the crude price series into one approximation series and some details series (DS. The new series obtained by adding the effective one approximation series and DS component is then used as input into the ANN model to forecast crude oil price. The relative performance of WANN model was compared to regular ANN model for crude oil forecasting at lead times of 1 day for two main crude oil price series, West Texas Intermediate (WTI and Brent crude oil spot prices. In both cases, WANN model was found to provide more accurate crude oil prices forecasts than individual ANN model.

  18. Crude oil price analysis and forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and independent component analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    E, Jianwei; Bao, Yanling; Ye, Jimin

    2017-10-01

    As one of the most vital energy resources in the world, crude oil plays a significant role in international economic market. The fluctuation of crude oil price has attracted academic and commercial attention. There exist many methods in forecasting the trend of crude oil price. However, traditional models failed in predicting accurately. Based on this, a hybrid method will be proposed in this paper, which combines variational mode decomposition (VMD), independent component analysis (ICA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), called VMD-ICA-ARIMA. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence factors of crude oil price and predict the future crude oil price. Major steps can be concluded as follows: Firstly, applying the VMD model on the original signal (crude oil price), the modes function can be decomposed adaptively. Secondly, independent components are separated by the ICA, and how the independent components affect the crude oil price is analyzed. Finally, forecasting the price of crude oil price by the ARIMA model, the forecasting trend demonstrates that crude oil price declines periodically. Comparing with benchmark ARIMA and EEMD-ICA-ARIMA, VMD-ICA-ARIMA can forecast the crude oil price more accurately.

  19. Causes for an asymmetric relation between the price of crude oil and refined petroleum products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, R.K.; Laskowski, C.

    2005-01-01

    We revisit the issue of asymmetries in the relation between the price of crude oil and refined petroleum products in the United States. An econometric analysis of monthly data indicates that the asymmetric relationship between the price of crude oil and motor gasoline is generated by refinery utilization rates and inventory behavior. The asymmetric relation between the price of crude oil and home heating oil probably is generated by contractual arrangements between retailers and consumers. Together, these results imply that price asymmetries may be generated by efficient markets. Under these conditions, there is little justification for policy interventions to reduce or eliminate price asymmetries in motor gasoline and home heating oil markets. (author)

  20. Jump dynamics with structural breaks for crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yen-Hsien; Hu, Hsu-Ning; Chiou, Jer-Shiou

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the joint phenomena of permanent and transitory components in conditional variance and jump intensity along with verification of structural breaks for crude oil prices. We adopt a Component-ARJI model with structural break analysis, utilizing daily data on West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot and futures contracts. The analytical results verify the existence of permanent and transitory components in conditional variance, with the permanent component of conditional variance increasing with the occurrence of a sudden major event (such as the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait, Operation Desert Storm and the war between the US and Iraq), and a relatively greater increase in the transitory component over the same period. Notably, jump intensity fluctuates with an increase in the transitory component of conditional variance in response to abnormal events. It is the transitory component which serves as the primary influential factor for jumps in returns; therefore, speculators are willing to take large risks, particularly with respect to anticipating future price movements, or gambling, in the hopes of rapidly making substantial gains; thus, speculators prefer the temporary volatility component and engage in trade activities. However, investors prefer the permanent volatility component, because they may well be better off relocating their assets into more stable portfolios to outperform the market portfolio over the long run. (author)

  1. Jump dynamics with structural breaks for crude oil prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yen-Hsien [Department of Finance, Chung Yuan Christian University (China); Hu, Hsu-Ning [Department of Money, Banking and Finance, TamKang University (China); Chiou, Jer-Shiou [Department of Finance and Banking, Shih Chien University, 70 Ta-Chih Street, Taipei 104 (China)

    2010-03-15

    This study investigates the joint phenomena of permanent and transitory components in conditional variance and jump intensity along with verification of structural breaks for crude oil prices. We adopt a Component-ARJI model with structural break analysis, utilizing daily data on West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot and futures contracts. The analytical results verify the existence of permanent and transitory components in conditional variance, with the permanent component of conditional variance increasing with the occurrence of a sudden major event (such as the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait, Operation Desert Storm and the war between the US and Iraq), and a relatively greater increase in the transitory component over the same period. Notably, jump intensity fluctuates with an increase in the transitory component of conditional variance in response to abnormal events. It is the transitory component which serves as the primary influential factor for jumps in returns; therefore, speculators are willing to take large risks, particularly with respect to anticipating future price movements, or gambling, in the hopes of rapidly making substantial gains; thus, speculators prefer the temporary volatility component and engage in trade activities. However, investors prefer the permanent volatility component, because they may well be better off relocating their assets into more stable portfolios to outperform the market portfolio over the long run. (author)

  2. An analysis of price and volatility transmission in butter, palm oil and crude oil markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Bergmann

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP saw a shift to greater market orientation for the EU dairy industry. Given this reorientation, the volatility of EU dairy commodity prices has sharply increased, creating the need to develop proper risk management tools to protect farmers’ income and to ensure stable prices for processors and consumers. In addition, there is a perceived threat that these commodities may be replaced by cheaper substitutes, such as palm oil, as dairy commodity prices become more volatile. Global production of palm oil almost doubled over the last decade while butter production remained relatively flat. Palm oil also serves as a feedstock for biodiesel production, thus establishing a new link between agricultural commodities and crude oil. Price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices, as well as between butter, palm oil and crude oil prices, before and after the Luxembourg agreement, are analysed. Vector autoregression (VAR models are applied to capture price transmission effects between these markets. These are combined with a multivariate GARCH model to account for potential volatility transmission. Results indicate strong price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices. EU butter shocks further spillover to palm oil volatility. In addition, there is evidence that oil prices spillover to World butter prices and World butter volatility.

  3. World market of crude oil - review of possible scenarios of forecasting for the crude oil price movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janevski, Risto

    2003-01-01

    Throughout most of 2002, crude oil prices were solidly within the range preferred by producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), $22 to $28 per barrel for the OPEC 'basket price' (Fig. 1). OPEC producers have been demonstrating disciplined adherence to announced cutbacks in production. Early in 2003, a dramatic upward turn in crude oil prices was brought about by a combination of two factors. First, a general strike against the Chavez regime resulted in a sudden drop in Venezuela's oil exports. Although other OPEC producers agreed to increase production to make up for the lost Venezuelan output, the obvious strain on worldwide spare capacity kept prices high. Second, price volatility was exacerbated by fears of war in Iraq. (Original)

  4. Oil and Cars: The Impact of Crude Oil Prices on the Stock Returns of Automotive Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bettina Lis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we are testing whether the impact of oil prices is different on the overall market and automotive companies. In addition we investigate, if this relationship is nonlinear. For this we use stock return data of US, German and Japanese car companies, and returns of share indices from the same countries as control variables, and Brent crude oil price changes. We first estimate the impact of crude oil on the indices, then clean the indices from these influences, and afterwards estimate the impact on the stocks. For this we are using OLS and EGARCH (1,1. We conclude that in general the car companies‘ stocks do not react more adversely as the overall market to crude oil price increases, while Japanese companies do not show any excess sensitivity at all. German companies tend to be sensitive, and US and German companies are together more sensitive in the more recent time periods.

  5. Higher prices at Canadian gas pumps: international crude oil prices or local market concentration? An empirical investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anindya Sen

    2003-01-01

    There is little consensus on whether higher retail gasoline prices in Canada are the result of international crude oil price fluctuations or local market power exercised by large vertically-integrated firms. I find that although both increasing local market concentration and higher average monthly wholesale prices are positively and significantly associated with higher retail prices, wholesale prices are more important than local market concentration. Similarly, crude oil prices are more important than the number of local wholesalers in determining wholesale prices. These results suggest that movements in gasoline prices are largely the result of input price fluctuations rather than local market structure. (author)

  6. Does Climate Change Mitigation Activity Affect Crude Oil Prices? Evidence from Dynamic Panel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jude C. Dike

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates how climate change mitigation affects crude oil prices while using carbon intensity as the indicator for climate change mitigation. The relationship between crude oil prices and carbon intensity is estimated using an Arellano and Bond GMM dynamic panel model. This study undertakes a regional-level analysis because of the geographical similarities among the countries in a region. Regions considered for the study are Africa, Asia and Oceania, Central and South America, the EU, the Middle East, and North America. Results show that there is a positive relationship between crude oil prices and carbon intensity, and a 1% change in carbon intensity is expected to cause about 1.6% change in crude oil prices in the short run and 8.4% change in crude oil prices in the long run while the speed of adjustment is 19%.

  7. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting of Crude Palm Oil Price Using Machine Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanchymalay, Kasturi; Salim, N.; Sukprasert, Anupong; Krishnan, Ramesh; Raba'ah Hashim, Ummi

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this paper was to study the correlation between crude palm oil (CPO) price, selected vegetable oil prices (such as soybean oil, coconut oil, and olive oil, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil), crude oil and the monthly exchange rate. Comparative analysis was then performed on CPO price forecasting results using the machine learning techniques. Monthly CPO prices, selected vegetable oil prices, crude oil prices and monthly exchange rate data from January 1987 to February 2017 were utilized. Preliminary analysis showed a positive and high correlation between the CPO price and soy bean oil price and also between CPO price and crude oil price. Experiments were conducted using multi-layer perception, support vector regression and Holt Winter exponential smoothing techniques. The results were assessed by using criteria of root mean square error (RMSE), means absolute error (MAE), means absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Direction of accuracy (DA). Among these three techniques, support vector regression(SVR) with Sequential minimal optimization (SMO) algorithm showed relatively better results compared to multi-layer perceptron and Holt Winters exponential smoothing method.

  8. Dating breaks for global crude oil prices and their volatility : a possible price band for global crude prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, H.C.; Suen, Y.B.

    2006-01-01

    Global oil prices are among the most visible of all historical commodity records. This paper presented and applied the multiple structural change method developed by Baie and Perron (BP) to investigate daily West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices from January 2, 1986 to December 30, 2004 as collected by the United States Department of Energy. In particular, the BP statistical method was used to estimate the number and location of structural breaks in global oil price series and their volatility. The objective was to precisely determine the exact structural break in the global oil market. The breaks for both the price of oil and its volatility were successfully located and dated. It was shown that the break for the structural change in oil prices occurred on November 12, 1999, where the average oil price was U$19.02 per barrel previously, and U$30.90 afterwards. Two breaks for oil price volatility were also found, the first in March 1991 and the other in December 1995. The volatility was measured in 3 regimes by dividing these 2 breaks. It was suggested that since oil prices increased more rapidly during the second half of 2004 and 2005, it is possible that another structural break may be found during this period. However, it wa cautioned that it is difficult to find another significant break until more data becomes available, particularly for periods characterized by a rapid increase in price. 24 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

  9. Price and income elasticities of crude oil import demand in South Africa. A cointegration analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ziramba, Emmanuel [Department of Economics, University of South Africa, P.O Box 392, Unisa 0003 (South Africa)

    2010-12-15

    This paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa as a function of real income and the price of crude oil over the period 1980-2006. We carried out the Johansen co integration multivariate analysis to determine the long-run income and price elasticities. A unique long-run cointegration relationship exists between crude oil imports and the explanatory variables. The short-run dynamics are estimated by specifying a general error correction model. The estimated long-run price and income elasticities of -0.147 and 0.429 suggest that import demand for crude oil is price and income inelastic. There is also evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports. (author)

  10. Fortum Oil and Gas 2000: Exceptionally high price of crude oil and strong refining margins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ropponen, V.-M.

    2001-01-01

    Fortum intends to be an active player in the structural reorganization of the oil business by utilizing its niche position in oil refining. Fortum produces sophisticated motor fuel components, which it uses in its reformulated gasolines and sells and exports to other oil companies, even to highly demanding markets in California. The increase in the price of crude oil considerably improved the results of Oil and Gas Upstream. Similarly, an improvement in the refining margin, as well as profitable shipping operations and a strong demand for gasoline components, boosted the results of Oil Refining and Marketing. (orig.)

  11. Finding the multipath propagation of multivariable crude oil prices using a wavelet-based network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Xiaoliang; An, Haizhong; Sun, Xiaoqi; Huang, Xuan; Gao, Xiangyun

    2016-04-01

    The globalization and regionalization of crude oil trade inevitably give rise to the difference of crude oil prices. The understanding of the pattern of the crude oil prices' mutual propagation is essential for analyzing the development of global oil trade. Previous research has focused mainly on the fuzzy long- or short-term one-to-one propagation of bivariate oil prices, generally ignoring various patterns of periodical multivariate propagation. This study presents a wavelet-based network approach to help uncover the multipath propagation of multivariable crude oil prices in a joint time-frequency period. The weekly oil spot prices of the OPEC member states from June 1999 to March 2011 are adopted as the sample data. First, we used wavelet analysis to find different subseries based on an optimal decomposing scale to describe the periodical feature of the original oil price time series. Second, a complex network model was constructed based on an optimal threshold selection to describe the structural feature of multivariable oil prices. Third, Bayesian network analysis (BNA) was conducted to find the probability causal relationship based on periodical structural features to describe the various patterns of periodical multivariable propagation. Finally, the significance of the leading and intermediary oil prices is discussed. These findings are beneficial for the implementation of periodical target-oriented pricing policies and investment strategies.

  12. The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yousefi, A.; Wirjanto, T.S.; University of Waterloo, Ont.

    2004-01-01

    This paper adopts a novel empirical approach to the crude-oil price formation for the purpose of understanding the price reactions of OPEC member countries to changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar against other major currencies and prices of other members. The results are broadly consistent with the view of the absence of a unified OPEC determined price in the international crude market literature. In addition, the results also highlight a cross regional dimension of the crude oil market. (author)

  13. Nonlinear joint dynamics between prices of crude oil and refined products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tao; Ma, Guofeng; Liu, Guangsheng

    2015-02-01

    In this paper, we investigate the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices. We find that nonlinear correlations are stronger in the long-term than in the short-term. Crude oil and product prices are cointegrated and financial crisis in 2007-2008 caused a structural break of the cointegrating relationship. Moreover, different from the findings in most studies, we reveal that the relationships are almost symmetric based on a threshold error correction model. The so-called 'asymmetric relationships' are caused by some outliers and financial crisis. Most of the time, crude oil prices play the major role in the adjustment process of the long-term equilibrium. However, refined product prices dominated crude oil prices during the period of financial crisis. Important policy and risk management implications can be learned from the empirical findings.

  14. Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, J.C.B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper uses a multiple regression model derived from an adaptation of Nerlove's partial adjustment model to estimate both the short-run and long-run elasticities of demand for crude oil in 23 countries. The estimates so obtained confirm that the demand for crude oil internationally is highly insensitive to changes in price. (author)

  15. Petroleum’s Price Transmission and Imported Demand for Crude Oil in Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Papusson Chaiwat; Nantarat Tangvitoontham

    2014-01-01

    The study of the petroleum price structures in Thailand reveals that diesel is the important fuel because it influences inflation and productions’ costs. Government wants to keep diesel’s price stability; meanwhile, it is less control in gasohol and petrol prices. These prices are normally higher than diesel’s price in order to support the renewable energy and reduce the consumption behaviors. Real price elasticity of imported crude oil in short run is insignificant but in long run is about 0...

  16. Price and income elasticities of crude oil import demand in South Africa: A cointegration analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ziramba, Emmanuel, E-mail: zirame@unisa.ac.z [Department of Economics, University of South Africa, P.O Box 392, Unisa 0003 (South Africa)

    2010-12-15

    This paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa as a function of real income and the price of crude oil over the period 1980-2006. We carried out the Johansen co integration multivariate analysis to determine the long-run income and price elasticities. A unique long-run cointegration relationship exists between crude oil imports and the explanatory variables. The short-run dynamics are estimated by specifying a general error correction model. The estimated long-run price and income elasticities of -0.147 and 0.429 suggest that import demand for crude oil is price and income inelastic. There is also evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports. - Research Highlights: {yields}The paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa over the period 1980-2006. {yields} The estimated long-run price and income elasticities are -0.147 and 0.429, respectively. {yields} There is evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports.

  17. Price and income elasticities of crude oil import demand in South Africa: A cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ziramba, Emmanuel

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa as a function of real income and the price of crude oil over the period 1980-2006. We carried out the Johansen co integration multivariate analysis to determine the long-run income and price elasticities. A unique long-run cointegration relationship exists between crude oil imports and the explanatory variables. The short-run dynamics are estimated by specifying a general error correction model. The estimated long-run price and income elasticities of -0.147 and 0.429 suggest that import demand for crude oil is price and income inelastic. There is also evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports. - Research Highlights: →The paper examines the demand for imported crude oil in South Africa over the period 1980-2006. → The estimated long-run price and income elasticities are -0.147 and 0.429, respectively. → There is evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from real GDP to crude oil imports.

  18. A reexamination of the crude oil price-unemployment relationship in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uri, N.D.; Boyd, R.

    1996-01-01

    This study begins by asking whether fluctuations in the price of crude oil have affected employment and the rate of unemployment in the US. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between the rate of unemployment and crude oil price volatility is established using Granger causality. Subsequently, the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before the measurable impact of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in unemployment is exhausted. Finally, the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in unemployment and the volatility of the price of crude oil and the percentage change in gross national product is examined

  19. The impact of crude oil price volatility on agricultural employment in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uri, N.D.

    1996-01-01

    This study addresses the question of whether fluctuations in the price of crude oil have affected agricultural employment in the United States. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between agricultural employment and crude oil price volatility is established using cointegration tests. Subsequently, the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before the measurable impacts of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in agricultural employment are exhausted. Finally, the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in agricultural employment and the volatility of the price of crude oil, the percentage changes in expected net farm income, realized technological innovation, and the wage rate is examined. (author)

  20. The Cushing OK Crude Oil Futures Price Pass - Through to New York Harbor Reformulated RBOB Regular Gasoline Futures Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chu V. Nguyen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study utilizes an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to investigate the nature of crude oil futures price pass-through since 2006. The empirical results reveal a very high but incomplete short-run pass-through rate from the crude oil futures price to the gasoline futures price of 0.849298 with a corresponding negative long-run pass-through rate of -0.2440894. These empirical findings suggest that traders in the U.S. oil and gasoline futures markets overreact to fluctuations in the crude oil futures price as evidenced by subsequent corrections made over the sample period. The result of the bounds test for a long-term relationship between these two futures prices is inconclusive. The empirical findings further suggest that U.S. futures market traders considered futures prices of gasoline three weeks earlier in determining the current trading price while taking only one week to respond completely to the shock in the crude oil futures price.  The empirical findings of this investigation may address the core elements of the price dynamics of the crude oil and gasoline futures markets and advance inquiry into assessment tools that could manage a very complex market challenge, especially for policy makers in countries with transitional economies in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia.

  1. Does Climate Change Mitigation Activity Affect Crude Oil Prices? Evidence from Dynamic Panel Model

    OpenAIRE

    Dike, Jude C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates how climate change mitigation affects crude oil prices while using carbon intensity as the indicator for climate change mitigation. The relationship between crude oil prices and carbon intensity is estimated using an Arellano and Bond GMM dynamic panel model. This study undertakes a regional-level analysis because of the geographical similarities among the countries in a region. Regions considered for the study are Africa, Asia and Oceania, Central and Sout...

  2. Agricultural Commodities and Crude Oil Prices: An Empirical Investigation of Their Relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleni Zafeiriou

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Within the last few decades, the extended use of biodiesel and bioethanol has established interlinkages between energy markets and agricultural commodity markets. The present work examines the bivariate relationships of crude oil–corn and crude oil–soybean futures prices with the assistance of the ARDL cointegration approach. Our findings confirm that crude oil prices affect the prices of agricultural products used in the production of biodiesel, as well as of ethanol, validating the interaction of energy and agricultural commodity markets. The practical value of the present work is that the findings provide policy makers with insight into the interlinkages between agricultural and energy markets to promote biodiesel or bioethanol by affecting crude oil prices. The novelty of the present work stands on the use of futures prices that incorporate all available information and thus are more appropriate to identify supply and demand shocks and price spillovers than real prices. Finally, the period of study includes extremely low, as well as extremely high, crude oil prices and the results illustrate that biofuels cannot be substituted for crude oil and protect economies from energy volatility.

  3. Forecasting crude oil price with an EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Lean; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung

    2008-01-01

    In this study, an empirical mode decomposition (EMD) based neural network ensemble learning paradigm is proposed for world crude oil spot price forecasting. For this purpose, the original crude oil spot price series were first decomposed into a finite, and often small, number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Then a three-layer feed-forward neural network (FNN) model was used to model each of the extracted IMFs, so that the tendencies of these IMFs could be accurately predicted. Finally, the prediction results of all IMFs are combined with an adaptive linear neural network (ALNN), to formulate an ensemble output for the original crude oil price series. For verification and testing, two main crude oil price series, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price and Brent crude oil spot price, are used to test the effectiveness of the proposed EMD-based neural network ensemble learning methodology. Empirical results obtained demonstrate attractiveness of the proposed EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm. (author)

  4. Multivariate EMD-Based Modeling and Forecasting of Crude Oil Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaijian He

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent empirical studies reveal evidence of the co-existence of heterogeneous data characteristics distinguishable by time scale in the movement crude oil prices. In this paper we propose a new multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD-based model to take advantage of these heterogeneous characteristics of the price movement and model them in the crude oil markets. Empirical studies in benchmark crude oil markets confirm that more diverse heterogeneous data characteristics can be revealed and modeled in the projected time delayed domain. The proposed model demonstrates the superior performance compared to the benchmark models.

  5. 1999 Crude oil market outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cochener, J.

    1998-01-01

    Baseline projection handling of crude oil prices was discussed, based on actual crude oil price trends from 1992 to 1998. Attention was drawn to the lack of correlation between crude oil and natural gas prices. Predictions for crude oil production were extended to the year 2015. As far as the immediate future is concerned the crude oil price for 1999 was predicted to continue to be sluggish due to competitive pressure from refined products at burner tip. tabs., figs

  6. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natanelov, Valeri; Alam, Mohammad J.; McKenzie, Andrew M.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2011-01-01

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: → We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. → A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. → Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  7. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Natanelov, Valeri, E-mail: valeri.natanelov@ugent.be [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Alam, Mohammad J. [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University (Bangladesh); McKenzie, Andrew M. [Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, AR (United States); Van Huylenbroeck, Guido [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

    2011-09-15

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: > We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. > A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. > Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  8. Forecasting short-run crude oil price using high- and low-inventory variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye, Michael; Zyren, John; Shore, Joanne

    2006-01-01

    Since inventories have a lower bound or a minimum operating level, economic literature suggests a nonlinear relationship between inventory level and commodity prices. This was found to be the case in the short-run crude oil market. In order to explore this inventory-price relationship, two nonlinear inventory variables are defined and derived from the monthly normal level and relative level of OECD crude oil inventories from post 1991 Gulf War to October 2003: one for the low inventory state and another for the high inventory state of the crude oil market. Incorporation of low- and high-inventory variables in a single equation model to forecast short-run WTI crude oil prices enhances the model fit and forecast ability

  9. Forecasting Crude Oil Price Using EEMD and RVM with Adaptive PSO-Based Kernels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taiyong Li

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil, as one of the most important energy sources in the world, plays a crucial role in global economic events. An accurate prediction for crude oil price is an interesting and challenging task for enterprises, governments, investors, and researchers. To cope with this issue, in this paper, we proposed a method integrating ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD, adaptive particle swarm optimization (APSO, and relevance vector machine (RVM—namely, EEMD-APSO-RVM—to predict crude oil price based on the “decomposition and ensemble” framework. Specifically, the raw time series of crude oil price were firstly decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs and one residue by EEMD. Then, RVM with combined kernels was applied to predict target value for the residue and each IMF individually. To improve the prediction performance of each component, an extended particle swarm optimization (PSO was utilized to simultaneously optimize the weights and parameters of single kernels for the combined kernel of RVM. Finally, simple addition was used to aggregate all the predicted results of components into an ensemble result as the final result. Extensive experiments were conducted on the crude oil spot price of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI to illustrate and evaluate the proposed method. The experimental results are superior to those by several state-of-the-art benchmark methods in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE, mean absolute percent error (MAPE, and directional statistic (Dstat, showing that the proposed EEMD-APSO-RVM is promising for forecasting crude oil price.

  10. EVALUATING THE SHORT RUN EFFECTS OF U.S. CRUDE OIL INVENTORY LEVELS ON WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE FROM 1993 - 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobi Olasojiand

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this research was to investigate the short-term influence of U.S. crude oil inventories on WTI crude oil prices from 1993 to 2013. This study is important for policy makers who wish to reduce the persistent and growing price volatility of crude oil and its related products as well as businesses such as airline companies who wish to make annual budgetary sales decisions. Using OLS multiple regression, cointegration, VECM and Ex-post forecast techniques; we provide evidence of an inelastic relationship in which a 1% increase in U.S. crude oil inventories is associated with 0.46% decrease in WTI crude oil prices; however this was only valid for 22% of WTI crude oil price variation. We also find that past data on U.S. crude oil inventories could be used to predict future WTI crude oil prices movement. Contrary to literature, the results of the VECM analysis indicate there is no short-run relationship between both variables over the trajectory.

  11. Crude oil price shocks and stock returns. Evidence from Turkish stock market under global liquidity conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berk, Istemi [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Aydogan, Berna [Izmir Univ. of Economics (Turkey). Dept. of International Trade and Finance

    2012-09-15

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (V AR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE- 1 00) returns for the period between January 2, 1990 and November 1, 2011. We have also tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange's (CBOE) S and P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance decomposition test results suggest little empirical evidence that crude oil price shocks have been rationally evaluated in the Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of variation in stock market returns.

  12. The Cushing OK Crude Oil Futures Price Pass - Through to New York Harbor Reformulated RBOB Regular Gasoline Futures Price

    OpenAIRE

    Chu V. Nguyen

    2017-01-01

    This study utilizes an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to investigate the nature of crude oil futures price pass-through since 2006. The empirical results reveal a very high but incomplete short-run pass-through rate from the crude oil futures price to the gasoline futures price of 0.849298 with a corresponding negative long-run pass-through rate of -0.2440894. These empirical findings suggest that traders in the U.S. oil and gasoline futures markets overreact to fluctuations in the crud...

  13. The effect of uncertainty and aggregate investments on crude oil price dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tvedt, Jostein

    2002-01-01

    This paper is a study of the dynamics of the oil industry and we derive a mean reverting process for the crude oil price. Oil is supplied by a market leader, OPEC, and by an aggregate that represents non-OPEC producers. The non-OPEC producers take the oil price as given. The cost of non-OPEC producers depends on past investments. Shifts in these investments are influenced by costs of structural change in the construction industry. A drop in the oil price to below a given level triggers lower investments, but if the oil price reverts back to a high level investments may not immediately expand. In an uncertain oil demand environment cost of structural change creates a value of waiting to invest. This investment behaviour influences the oil price process

  14. Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xin

    Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

  15. Pass-through of crude oil prices at different stages in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatih Akçelik

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the degree of oil price pass-through to domestic prices at different stages of supply chain in Turkey. Our results, based on vector autoregressive models, point out that the pass-through to domestic motor fuel prices is considerably fast as expected and just one third of a change in crude oil prices is reflected to the motor fuel prices due to the high share of taxes on retail prices. On the other hand, it is shown that impact of oil prices on transport services takes a longer time compared to other domestic prices. Over the 2004–2014 period, estimates suggest that a 10% permanent change in the international crude oil prices is associated with a 0.42 percentage points change in consumer inflation at the end of one year. The final accumulated pass-through to consumer inflation reaches 0.50 percentage points. Moreover, the pass-through to producer prices is nearly twice as much as that to consumer prices. Findings also provide some evidence for a strengthening in oil price pass-through to consumer inflation over time, which might reflect the growing natural gas intensity of the economy.

  16. DOES VOLATILITY IN CRUDE OIL PRICE PRECIPITATE MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effects of crude oil price changes on economic activity in an oil dependent economy-Nigeria. A small open economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR technique is employed to study the macroeconomic dynamics of domestic price level, economic output, money supply and oil price in Nigeria. The sample covers the data from 1985:q1 to 2010:q4. The Impulse Response Functions (IRFs and the Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVDs results suggest that domestic policies, instead of oil-boom should be blamed for inflation. Also, oil price variations are driven mostly by oil shocks, however, domestic shocks are responsible for a reasonable portion of oil price variations.

  17. A new approach for crude oil price prediction based on stream learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Gao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil is the world's leading fuel, and its prices have a big impact on the global environment, economy as well as oil exploration and exploitation activities. Oil price forecasts are very useful to industries, governments and individuals. Although many methods have been developed for predicting oil prices, it remains one of the most challenging forecasting problems due to the high volatility of oil prices. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for crude oil price prediction based on a new machine learning paradigm called stream learning. The main advantage of our stream learning approach is that the prediction model can capture the changing pattern of oil prices since the model is continuously updated whenever new oil price data are available, with very small constant overhead. To evaluate the forecasting ability of our stream learning model, we compare it with three other popular oil price prediction models. The experiment results show that our stream learning model achieves the highest accuracy in terms of both mean squared prediction error and directional accuracy ratio over a variety of forecast time horizons.

  18. STRUCTURAL BREAKS, COINTEGRATION, AND CAUSALITY BY VECM ANALYSIS OF CRUDE OIL AND FOOD PRICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aynur Pala

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This papers investigated form of the linkage beetwen crude oil price index and food price index, using Johansen Cointegration test, and Granger Causality by VECM. Empirical results for monthly data from 1990:01 to 2011:08 indicated that evidence for breaks after 2008:08 and 2008:11. We find a clear long-run relationship between these series for the full and sub sample. Cointegration regression coefficient is negative at the 1990:01-2008:08 time period, but adversely positive at the 2008:11-2011:08 time period. This results represent that relation between crude oil and food price chanced.

  19. Determining Optimal Crude Oil Price Benchmark in Nigeria: An Empirical Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saibu Olufemi Muibi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper contributes to on-going empirical search for an appropriate crude oil price benchmark that ensures greater financial stability and efficient fiscal management in Nigeria. It adopted the seasonally adjusted ARIMA forecasting models using monthly data series from 2000m01 to 2012m12 to predict future movement in Nigeria crude oil prices. The paper derived a more robust and dynamic framework that accommodates fluctuation in crude oil price and also in government spending. The result shows that if the incessant withdrawal from the ECA fund and the increasing debt profile of government in recent times are factored into the benchmark, the real crude oil numerical fiscal rule is (US$82.3 for 2013 which is higher than the official benchmark of $75 used for 2013 and 2014 budget proposal. The paper argues that the current long run price rule based on 5-10 year moving average approach adopted by government is rigid and inflexible as a rule for managing Nigerian oil funds. The unrealistic assumption of the extant benchmark accounted for excessive depletion and lack of accountability of the excess crude oil account. The paper concludes that except the federal government can curtail its spending profligacy and adopts a more stringent fiscal discipline rules, the current benchmark is unrealistic and unsuitable for fiscal management of oil revenue in the context of Nigerian economic spending profile.

  20. The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.

    2011-01-01

    I hypothesize that the price spike and collapse of 2007-2008 are driven by both changes in both market fundamentals and speculative pressures. Contrary to arguments for a demand shock, I hypothesize that prices rise sharply in 2007-2008 because ongoing growth in Chinese oil demand runs into a sudden and unexpected halt to a decade long increase in non-OPEC production. This caused a loss of OPEC spare capacity because increased demand for OPEC production runs ahead of increases in OPEC capacity. These changes are reinforced by speculative expectations. Although difficult to measure directly, I argue for the role of speculation based on the following: (1) a significant increase in private US crude oil inventories since 2004; (2) repeated and extended break-downs (starting in 2004) in the cointegrating relationship between spot and far month future prices that are inconsistent with the law of one price and arbitrage opportunities; and (3) statistical and predictive failures by an econometric model of oil prices that is based on market fundamentals. These changes are related to the behavior and impact of noise traders on asset prices to sketch mechanisms by which speculative expectations can affect crude oil prices. - Research Highlights: → The 2007-2009 spike and collapse in oil prices is caused by a combination of market fundamentals and speculative expectations. → The rise is caused by an unexpected hiatus in non-OPEC oil production, not a sudden increase in demand. → The role of speculation is suggested by an increase in oil inventories, which reverses a twenty year period of declines, a decoupling between spot and futures prices, which violates the law of one price, and a breakdown of empirical models of oil prices based solely on market fundamentals. → Speculative expectations affect oil prices via noise traders, who create a risk that deters rational arbitrageurs from betting against them.

  1. Forecasting ability of the investor sentiment endurance index: The case of oil service stock returns and crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Ling T.; Casey, K.M.

    2015-01-01

    Using a binomial probability distribution model this paper creates an endurance index of oil service investor sentiment. The index reflects the probability of the high or low stock price being the close price for the PHLX Oil Service Sector Index. Results of this study reveal the substantial forecasting ability of the sentiment endurance index. Monthly and quarterly rolling forecasts of returns of oil service stocks have an overall accuracy as high as 52% to 57%. In addition, the index shows decent forecasting ability on changes in crude oil prices, especially, WTI prices. The accuracy of 6-quarter rolling forecasts is 55%. The sentiment endurance index, along with the procedure of true forecasting and accuracy ratio, applied in this study provides investors and analysts of oil service sector stocks and crude oil prices as well as energy policy-makers with effective analytical tools

  2. Long Run Dynamic Volatilities between OPEC and non-OPEC Crude Oil Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Ghassan, Hassan B.; Alhajhoj, Hassan R.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the long-run dynamics of OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil prices is important in an era of increased financialization of petroleum markets. Utilizing an ECM within a threshold cointegration and CGARCH errors framework, we provide evidence on the cointegrating relationship and estimate how and to what extent the respective prices adjust to eliminate disequilibrium. Our findings suggest that the adjustment process of OPEC prices to the positive discrepancies is slow which implies that ...

  3. The price of crude oil between 1973 et 2014: a cyclical trend over the long term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bui Xuan Hoi

    2015-01-01

    In 2014, given the geopolitical events occurring in regions that are highly sensitive for oil markets - Iraq, Iran, Syria, Russia, the Ukraine, etc. -, one could have expected a hike in the price of a barrel of crude oil. In fact, the opposite happened. Does this mean the end of a cycle characterised by high prices and the beginning of a new cycle epitomised by low prices on the international market place? What is really the mechanism behind long term price formation? Some of the answers emanate from the analysis of the 1973-2014 period. (author)

  4. Interdependence between crude oil and world food prices: A detrended cross correlation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Debdatta; Mitra, Subrata K.

    2018-02-01

    This article explores the changing interdependence between crude oil and world food prices at varying time scales using detrended cross correlation analysis that would answer whether the interdependence (if any) differed significantly between pre and post-crisis period. Unlike the previous studies that exogenously imposed break dates for dividing the time series into sub-samples, we tested whether the mean of the crude oil price changed over time to find evidence for structural changes in the crude oil price series and endogenously determine three break dates with minimum Bayesian information criterion scores. Accordingly, we divided the entire study period in four sample periods - January 1990 to October 1999, November 1999 to February 2005, March 2005 to September 2010, and October 2010 to July 2016, where the third sample period coincided with the period of food crisis and enabled us to compare the fuel-food interdependence across pre-crisis, during the crisis, and post-crisis periods. The results of the detrended cross correlation analysis extended corroborative evidence for increasing positive interdependence between the crude oil price and world food price index along with its sub-categories, namely dairy, cereals, vegetable oil, and sugar. The article ends with the implications of these results in the domain of food policy and the financial sector.

  5. Co-movements of Alaska North Slope and UK Brent crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, B.T.; Harter, C.L.

    2000-01-01

    In order to study the inter-relationships of international crude oil markets, empirical analyses are used to investigate univariate and multivariate relationships between Alaska North Slope and UK Brent oil prices. Using monthly data from the period 1974-1996, the results show that both price series follow a random walk and that these oil markets share a long-run common trend. The empirical results suggest that the two markets are 'unified'. That is, they are competitive, and there is price convergence in the markets. (author)

  6. Crude oil market report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1985-01-01

    Falling demand for refined products and an excess of production capacity are driving world oil prices down further. Competitive price cutting, notably by Mexico, Britain, and the Soviet Union, has left Saudi Arabia the only guardian of a costly pricing discipline in terms of crude oil sales. The current crisis is limited to the producers of crude oil. Refineries are now deciding what, where, and how to buy crude in order to meet the requirements of a slack market place. Saudi Arabia could precipitate a price collapse below $20 per barrel by increasing production volume, but that seems unlikely. 1 figure, 2 tables.

  7. The crude oil market mechanism in the light of the 1990-91 price crisis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Memarian, M.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper is an attempt to forecast crude oil prices in the 1990-91 crisis. The methodology used is based on the standard supply/demand apparatus, with respect to the possible political circumstances which prevailed during the crisis. The paper begins by modelling crude oil prices. Then the application of the model to the oil market will be discussed. The exclusive findings of this study concern the method of estimating that crude oil prices would grow to a maximum level of $32 per barrel just before the start of the (military) war in January 1991 -and, at the same time, that total excess demand would be around 2.5 million barrels per day, and that, in the case of an injection of about 2.5 mb/d of crude into the market, prices would collapse to their pre-crisis levels of approximately $19/b. It also shows how the effects of political deterioration on prices can be divided into a shift in the slope of the demand curve and a shift in the demand curve itself. (author)

  8. A new approach for crude oil price analysis based on empirical mode decomposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shou-Yang; Lai, K.K.

    2008-01-01

    The importance of understanding the underlying characteristics of international crude oil price movements attracts much attention from academic researchers and business practitioners. Due to the intrinsic complexity of the oil market, however, most of them fail to produce consistently good results. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), recently proposed by Huang et al., appears to be a novel data analysis method for nonlinear and non-stationary time series. By decomposing a time series into a small number of independent and concretely implicational intrinsic modes based on scale separation, EMD explains the generation of time series data from a novel perspective. Ensemble EMD (EEMD) is a substantial improvement of EMD which can better separate the scales naturally by adding white noise series to the original time series and then treating the ensemble averages as the true intrinsic modes. In this paper, we extend EEMD to crude oil price analysis. First, three crude oil price series with different time ranges and frequencies are decomposed into several independent intrinsic modes, from high to low frequency. Second, the intrinsic modes are composed into a fluctuating process, a slowly varying part and a trend based on fine-to-coarse reconstruction. The economic meanings of the three components are identified as short term fluctuations caused by normal supply-demand disequilibrium or some other market activities, the effect of a shock of a significant event, and a long term trend. Finally, the EEMD is shown to be a vital technique for crude oil price analysis. (author)

  9. A Study on the Determination of the World Crude Oil Price and Methods for Its Forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, J.K. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2001-11-01

    The primary purpose of this report is to provide the groundwork to develop the methods to forecast the world crude oil price. The methodology is used by both literature survey and empirical study. For this purpose, first of all, this report reviewed the present situation and the outlook of the world oil market based on oil demand, supply and prices. This analysis attempted to provide a deeper understanding to support the development of oil forecasting methods. The result of this review, in general, showed that the oil demand will be maintained annually at an average rate of around 2.4% under assumption that oil supply has no problem until 2020. The review showed that crude oil price will be a 3% increasing rate annually in the 1999 real term. This report used the contents of the summary review as reference data in order to link the KEEIOF model. In an effort to further investigate the contents of oil political economy, this report reviewed the articles of political economy about oil industry. It pointed out that the world oil industry is experiencing the change of restructuring oil industry after the Gulf War in 1990. The contents of restructuring oil industry are characterized by the 'open access' to resources not only in the Persian Gulf, but elsewhere in the world as well - especially the Caspian Sea Basin. In addition, the contents showed that the oil industries are shifted from government control to government and industry cooperation after the Gulf War. In order to examine the characters and the problems surrounding oil producing countries, this report described the model of OPEC behavior and strategy of oil management with political and military factors. Among examining the models of OPEC behavior, this report focused on hybrid model to explain OPEC behavior. In reviewing political and religious power structure in the Middle East, the report revealed that US emphasizes the importance of the Middle East for guaranteeing oil security. However, three

  10. Production Costs of Alternative Transportation Fuels. Influence of Crude Oil Price and Technology Maturity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cazzola, Pierpaolo; Morrison, Geoff; Kaneko, Hiroyuki; Cuenot, Francois; Ghandi, Abbas; Fulton, Lewis

    2013-07-01

    This study examines the production costs of a range of transport fuels and energy carriers under varying crude oil price assumptions and technology market maturation levels. An engineering ''bottom-up'' approach is used to estimate the effect of the input cost of oil and of various technological assumptions on the finished price of these fuels. In total, the production costs of 20 fuels are examined for crude oil prices between USD 60 and USD 150 per barrel. Some fuel pathways can be competitive with oil as their production, transport and storage technology matures, and as oil price increases. Rising oil prices will offer new opportunities to switch to alternative fuels for transport, to diversify the energy mix of the transport sector, and to reduce the exposure of the whole system to price volatility and potential distuption of supply. In a time of uncertainty about the leading vehicle technology to decarbonize the transport sector, looking at the fuel cost brings key information to be considered to keep mobility affordable yet sustainable.

  11. Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonicas

    2011-01-01

    of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well...... obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark...

  12. Forecasting Long-Term Crude Oil Prices Using a Bayesian Model with Informative Priors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chul-Yong Lee

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the long-term, crude oil prices may impact the economic stability and sustainability of many countries, especially those depending on oil imports. This study thus suggests an alternative model for accurately forecasting oil prices while reflecting structural changes in the oil market by using a Bayesian approach. The prior information is derived from the recent and expected structure of the oil market, using a subjective approach, and then updated with available market data. The model includes as independent variables factors affecting oil prices, such as world oil demand and supply, the financial situation, upstream costs, and geopolitical events. To test the model’s forecasting performance, it is compared with other models, including a linear ordinary least squares model and a neural network model. The proposed model outperforms on the forecasting performance test even though the neural network model shows the best results on a goodness-of-fit test. The results show that the crude oil price is estimated to increase to $169.3/Bbl by 2040.

  13. Price volatility, hedging and variable risk premium in the crude oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad Jalali-Naini; Maryam Kazemi Manesh

    2006-01-01

    The crude oil price exhibits a high degree of volatility which varies significantly over time. Such characteristics imply that the oil market is a promising area for testing volatility models. Testing and predicting volatility using ARCH and GARCH models have grown in the literature. A useful application of the volatility models is in the formulation of hedging strategies. In this paper we compare the optimal hedge ratio for the crude oil using the classical minimum risk approach and use ARCH to incorporate the effect of heteroskedasticity in the residuals on the hedge ratio. In addition, we test for the existence of a variable risk premium in the crude oil market. We find that, assuming rational expectations, there is a non-zero risk premium. We test for the variability of the risk premia and find evidence in its support when we employed a multivariate GARCH model. (author)

  14. The US Shale Gas Revolution and Its Externality on Crude Oil Prices: A Counterfactual Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxun Liu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of shale gas production since the mid-2000s which is commonly referred to as “shale gas revolution” has had large impacts on global energy outlook. The impact is particularly substantial when it comes to the oil market because natural gas and oil are substitutes in consumption and complements and rivals in production. This paper investigates the price externality of shale gas revolution on crude oil. Applying a structural vector autoregressive model (VAR model, the effect of natural gas production on real oil price is identified in particular, and then based on the identification, counterfactuals of oil price without shale gas revolution are constructed. We find that after the expansion of shale gas production, the real West Texas Intermediate (WTI oil price is depressed by 10.22 USD/barrel on average from 2007 to 2017, and the magnitude seems to increase with time. In addition, the period before shale gas revolution is used as a “thought experiment” for placebo study. The results support the hypothesis that real WTI oil price can be reasonably reproduced by our models, and the estimated gap for oil price during 2007–2017 can be attributed to shale gas revolution. The methodology and framework can be applied to evaluate the economic impacts of other programs or policies.

  15. The transmission of fluctuant patterns of the forex burden based on international crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Li, Huajiao

    2014-01-01

    For a country that imports crude oil, the forex burden is always fluctuant due to the fluctuation of international crude oil prices and exchange rates over time. The gap discovered between international crude oil prices and the crude oil price based on exchange rates may indicate the fluctuation of the forex burden. There exist different fluctuant patterns in the fluctuation process of the forex burden in different periods. Hence, we proposed an approach combining econometrics and complex network theory to explore the transmission mechanism of these fluctuant patterns. In this study, we defined the forex burden and the fluctuant patterns by normalization, sliding windows of data and econometric models. And then we set the fluctuant patterns as nodes and the transformation between patterns as edges; in this way, the transmission complex network is constructed. The results show that different major fluctuant patterns with different probabilities appear in different scales. The fluctuant patterns transferred into each other conveniently. And the transmission medium can help to identify the transitional periods in the process of the transmission. The contribution of this study to the energy policy decision-making is that the formulations of related policies under different period lengths require different reference standards. - Highlights: • Small “gap” between crude oil price and exchange rate can make great forex fluctuation. • We defined the fluctuant patterns of forex burden through data sliding windows. • We constructed the transmission network models of fluctuant patterns of forex burden. • The transitional periods can be identified by media capabilities of fluctuant patterns. • Energy policies making for different lengths of period should reference different scales standards

  16. The transmission of fluctuant patterns of the forex burden based on international crude oil prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, Xiangyun [School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083 (China); Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land and Resources (Chinese Academy of Land and Resource Economics, China University of Geosciences Beijing), Beijing 100083 (China); Lab of Resources and Environmental Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083 (China); Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1 (Canada); An, Haizhong [School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083 (China); Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land and Resources (Chinese Academy of Land and Resource Economics, China University of Geosciences Beijing), Beijing 100083 (China); Lab of Resources and Environmental Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083 (China); Fang, Wei [School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083 (China); Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land and Resources (Chinese Academy of Land and Resource Economics, China University of Geosciences Beijing), Beijing 100083 (China); Lab of Resources and Environmental Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083 (China); Li, Huajiao [School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083 (China); Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land and Resources (Chinese Academy of Land and Resource Economics, China University of Geosciences Beijing), Beijing 100083 (China); Lab of Resources and Environmental Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083 (China); others, and

    2014-08-14

    For a country that imports crude oil, the forex burden is always fluctuant due to the fluctuation of international crude oil prices and exchange rates over time. The gap discovered between international crude oil prices and the crude oil price based on exchange rates may indicate the fluctuation of the forex burden. There exist different fluctuant patterns in the fluctuation process of the forex burden in different periods. Hence, we proposed an approach combining econometrics and complex network theory to explore the transmission mechanism of these fluctuant patterns. In this study, we defined the forex burden and the fluctuant patterns by normalization, sliding windows of data and econometric models. And then we set the fluctuant patterns as nodes and the transformation between patterns as edges; in this way, the transmission complex network is constructed. The results show that different major fluctuant patterns with different probabilities appear in different scales. The fluctuant patterns transferred into each other conveniently. And the transmission medium can help to identify the transitional periods in the process of the transmission. The contribution of this study to the energy policy decision-making is that the formulations of related policies under different period lengths require different reference standards. - Highlights: • Small “gap” between crude oil price and exchange rate can make great forex fluctuation. • We defined the fluctuant patterns of forex burden through data sliding windows. • We constructed the transmission network models of fluctuant patterns of forex burden. • The transitional periods can be identified by media capabilities of fluctuant patterns. • Energy policies making for different lengths of period should reference different scales standards.

  17. Detecting method for crude oil price fluctuation mechanism under different periodic time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Xiangyun; Fang, Wei; An, Feng; Wang, Yue

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • We proposed the concept of autoregressive modes to indicate the fluctuation patterns. • We constructed transmission networks for studying the fluctuation mechanism. • There are different fluctuation mechanism under different periodic time series. • Only a few types of autoregressive modes control the fluctuations in crude oil price. • There are cluster effects during the fluctuation mechanism of autoregressive modes. - Abstract: Current existing literatures can characterize the long-term fluctuation of crude oil price time series, however, it is difficult to detect the fluctuation mechanism specifically under short term. Because each fluctuation pattern for one short period contained in a long-term crude oil price time series have dynamic characteristics of diversity; in other words, there exhibit various fluctuation patterns in different short periods and transmit to each other, which reflects the reputedly complicate and chaotic oil market. Thus, we proposed an incorporated method to detect the fluctuation mechanism, which is the evolution of the different fluctuation patterns over time from the complex network perspective. We divided crude oil price time series into segments using sliding time windows, and defined autoregressive modes based on regression models to indicate the fluctuation patterns of each segment. Hence, the transmissions between different types of autoregressive modes over time form a transmission network that contains rich dynamic information. We then capture transmission characteristics of autoregressive modes under different periodic time series through the structure features of the transmission networks. The results indicate that there are various autoregressive modes with significantly different statistical characteristics under different periodic time series. However, only a few types of autoregressive modes and transmission patterns play a major role in the fluctuation mechanism of the crude oil price, and these

  18. Asymmetry in retail gasoline and crude oil price movements in the United States. An application of hidden cointegration technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honarvar, Afshin

    2009-01-01

    There is a common belief that gasoline prices respond more quickly to crude oil price increases than decreases. Some economists and politicians believe that asymmetry in oil and gasoline price movements is the outcome of a non-competitive gasoline market requiring that governments take policy action to address 'unfair pricing'. There is no consensus as to the existence, or nature, of the asymmetric relationship between prices of gasoline and crude oil. Much of this literature specifies asymmetry in the speed of adjustment and short-run adjustment coefficients. In contrast, Granger and Yoon's [Granger, C.W. and Yoon, G. 'Hidden Cointegration', University of California, San Diego, Department of Economics Working Paper, (2002).] Crouching Error Correction Model (CECM) identifies asymmetry of the cointegrating vectors between components (cumulative positive and negative changes) of the series. Applying the CECM to retail gasoline and crude oil prices for the U.S., we find that there is only evidence of cointegration between positive components of crude oil prices and negative components of gasoline prices. In contrast to the literature which attributes asymmetric price movements to market power of refiners, these findings suggest that gasoline prices -in the long run- are more influenced by the technological changes on the demand side than crude oil price movements on the supply side. (author)

  19. Impact of speculator's expectations of returns and time scales of investment on crude oil price behaviors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Ling-Yun; Fan, Ying; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2009-01-01

    Based on time series of crude oil prices (daily spot), this paper analyses price fluctuation with two significant parameters τ (speculators' time scales of investment) and ε (speculators' expectations of return) by using Zipf analysis technique, specifically, by mapping τ-returns of prices into 3-alphabeted sequences (absolute frequencies) and 2-alphabeted sequences (relative frequencies), containing the fundamental information of price fluctuations. This paper empirically explores parameters and identifies various types of speculators' cognition patterns of price behavior. In order to quantify the degree of distortion, a feasible reference is proposed: an ideal speculator. Finally, this paper discusses the similarities and differences between those cognition patterns of speculators' and those of an ideal speculator. The resultant analyses identify the possible distortion of price behaviors by their patterns. (author)

  20. An empirical analysis of price expectations formation: Evidence from the crude oil reserves acquisitions market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vielhaber, L.M.

    1991-01-01

    Reasons for the recent scant empirical attention to price expectations theory are twofold. First, except for futures markets and the occasional expectations survey, price expectations are rarely documented. Second, results of empirical tests of rational expectations are fundamentally flawed by the subjective input of the researcher. Subjectivity taints the results of the test, first, in the form of model specification and, second, in the form of the identification of the relevant information set. This study addresses each of these shortcomings. First, crude oil price expectations are recovered in the market for reserves by using a standard engineering model commonly used in reserves evaluation. Second, the crude oil futures market is used to estimate an index of information. This index circumvents the need to subjectively identify the elements of the information set, removing a key source of subjective input. The results show that agents involved in the crude oil reserves acquisitions market form expectations of futures prices in a way that does not conform with the adaptive expectations model

  1. Research on the trend of Yen exchange rate and international crude oil price fluctuation affected by Japan’s earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoguang Li

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Whether this earthquake would become a turning point of the high oil price and whether it would have big impact on yen exchange rate are two issues to be discussed in this paper.Design/methodology/approach: To analyze deeply the internal relations between changes in yen exchange rate caused by Japan’s earthquake and price fluctuation of international crude oil, this research chooses middle rate of yen exchange rate during the 45 days around Japan’s earthquake and price data of international crude oil to do an empirical study, uses VAR model and HP trend decomposition to estimate the mutual effect of yen exchange rate change and price fluctuation of international crude oil in this period.Findings: It has been found in the empirical study with VAR model and HP filter decomposition model on the yen exchange rate and the international crude oil price fluctuation during 45 days around Japan’s earthquake that: the fluctuation of yen exchange rate around the earthquake is one of the main reasons for the drastic fluctuation of international crude oil price in that period. The fluctuation of international crude oil price directly triggered by yen exchange rate occupies 13.54% of its total variance. There is a long-term interactive relationship between yen exchange rate and international crude oil price. The upward trend of international crude oil price after the earthquake was obvious, while yen exchange rate remained relatively stable after the earthquake.Originality/value: As economic globalization goes deeper, the influence of natural disasters on international financial market and world economy will become more and more obvious. It has a great revelatory meaning to studying further each kind of natural disaster’s impacts on international financial market and world economics.

  2. Day-Ahead Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using a Novel Morphological Component Analysis Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As a typical nonlinear and dynamic system, the crude oil price movement is difficult to predict and its accurate forecasting remains the subject of intense research activity. Recent empirical evidence suggests that the multiscale data characteristics in the price movement are another important stylized fact. The incorporation of mixture of data characteristics in the time scale domain during the modelling process can lead to significant performance improvement. This paper proposes a novel morphological component analysis based hybrid methodology for modeling the multiscale heterogeneous characteristics of the price movement in the crude oil markets. Empirical studies in two representative benchmark crude oil markets reveal the existence of multiscale heterogeneous microdata structure. The significant performance improvement of the proposed algorithm incorporating the heterogeneous data characteristics, against benchmark random walk, ARMA, and SVR models, is also attributed to the innovative methodology proposed to incorporate this important stylized fact during the modelling process. Meanwhile, work in this paper offers additional insights into the heterogeneous market microstructure with economic viable interpretations.

  3. Density Forecasts of Crude-Oil Prices Using Option-Implied and ARCH-Type Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsiaras, Leonidas; Høg, Esben

      The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994-2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices...... as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities...

  4. An empirical model of daily highs and lows of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Angela W.W.; Wan, Alan T.K.; Kwok, Jerry T.K.

    2010-01-01

    There is a large collection of literature on energy price forecasting, but most studies typically use monthly average or close-to-close daily price data. In practice, the daily price range constructed from the daily high and low also contains useful information on price volatility and is used frequently in technical analysis. The interaction between the daily high and low and the associated daily range has been examined in several recent studies on stock price and exchange rate forecasts. The present paper adopts a similar approach to analyze the behaviour of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price over a ten-year period. We find that daily highs and lows of the WTI oil price are cointegrated, with the error correction term being closely approximated by the daily price range. Two forecasting models, one based on a vector error correction mechanism and the other based on a transfer function framework with the range taken as a driver variable, are presented for forecasting the daily highs and lows. The results show that both of these models offer significant advantages over the naive random walk and univariate ARIMA models in terms of out-of-sample forecast accuracy. A trading strategy that makes use of the daily high and low forecasts is further developed. It is found that this strategy generally yields very reasonable trading returns over an evaluation period of about two years. (author)

  5. Dynamic Correlation between Stock Market Returns and Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from a Developing Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emenike O. Kalu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Modeling the correlation of assets returns volatilities across different markets or segments of a market has practical value for portfolio selection and diversification, market regulation, and risk management. This paper therefore evaluates the nature of time-varying correlation between volatilities of stock market and crude oil returns in Nigeria using Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH model. Results from DCC-GARCH (1,1 model show evidence of volatility clustering and persistence in Nigeria stock market and crude oil returns. The results also show that there is no dynamic conditional correlation in ARCH effects between stock market returns and crude oil prices in Nigeria. The results further show that there is strong evidence of time-varying volatility correlation between stock market and crude oil returns volatility. The findings will help shape policy-making in risk management and market regulation in Nigeria.

  6. A Threshold Cointegration Analysis of Asymmetric Adjustment of OPEC and non-OPEC Monthly Crude Oil Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Ghassan, Hassan B.; Banerjee, Prashanta K.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of crude oil prices of OPEC and non-OPEC countries using threshold cointegration. To capture the long run asymmetric price transmission mechanism, we develop an error correction model within a threshold cointegration and CGARCH errors framework. The empirical contribution of our paper specifies the cointegrating relation between OPEC price and non-OPEC prices and estimates how and to what extent the respective prices adjust to eliminate dis...

  7. Is there an asymmetry in the response of diesel and petrol prices to crude oil price changes? Evidence from New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Ming-Hua; Margaritis, Dimitris; Tourani-Rad, Alireza

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines how pre-tax petrol and diesel prices in New Zealand respond to changes in crude oil prices using an asymmetric error correction model. Our results show that oil companies adjust diesel prices upwards faster than they adjust them downwards, and the difference is statistically significant. However we find no statistical evidence for an asymmetry in the adjustment of petrol prices even though the magnitude of estimated coefficients suggests a faster response to rising prices. As diesel pricing is not as competitive as petrol pricing, calls for further government actions and monitoring of the oil market may be justified. Our findings also have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy as the pass-through of crude oil price changes can affect cost-push inflation. (author)

  8. THE LONG-RUN AND SHORT-RUN EFFECTS OF CRUDE OIL PRICE ON METHANOL MARKET IN IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akbar Komijani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Substituting crude oil exports with value-added petrochemical products is one of the main strategies for policy makers in oil-driven economies to isolating the real sectors of economy from oil price volatility. This policy inclination has led to a body of literature in energy economics in recent decades. As a case study, this paper investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between Iran’s oil price and methanol price which is one of the most important non-oil exports of the oil-exporting country. To do so, the weekly data from 18 Jan. 2009 to 18 Sep. 2011 in a VECM framework is applied. The results show that in the long-run, oil price hikes leads to proportional increase in methanol price while in the short-run, this impact is not significant.

  9. The substitutive effect of biofuels on fossil fuels in the lower and higher crude oil price periods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Ting-Huan; Su, Hsin-Mei

    2010-01-01

    Various biofuels, including bioethanol and biodiesel are technologically being considered replacements for fossil fuels, such as the conventional gasoline and diesel. This paper aims to measure whether economic substitutability can be generated during periods of higher and/or lower prices of crude oil. The empirical results of the bivariate EGARCH model prove that this substitutive effect was occurred during the higher crude oil price period due to the significant price spillover effects from crude oil futures to corn and soybean futures, indicating that the increase in food prices can be attributed to more consumption of biofuels. We suggest more extensive research in the search for fuel alternatives from inedible feedstock such as pongamia, jojoba, jatropha, especially the 2nd generation biofuel technologies such as algae-based biofuels. (author)

  10. The substitutive effect of biofuels on fossil fuels in the lower and higher crude oil price periods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Ting-Huan [Energy and Environment Research Laboratories, Industrial Technology Research Institute, Hsinchu County 310 (China); Department of Banking and Finance, Tamkang University, No.151, Ying-Chuan Road, Taipei County 251 (China); Su, Hsin-Mei [Department of Banking and Finance, Tamkang University, No.151, Ying-Chuan Road, Taipei County 251 (China)

    2010-07-15

    Various biofuels, including bioethanol and biodiesel are technologically being considered replacements for fossil fuels, such as the conventional gasoline and diesel. This paper aims to measure whether economic substitutability can be generated during periods of higher and/or lower prices of crude oil. The empirical results of the bivariate EGARCH model prove that this substitutive effect was occurred during the higher crude oil price period due to the significant price spillover effects from crude oil futures to corn and soybean futures, indicating that the increase in food prices can be attributed to more consumption of biofuels. We suggest more extensive research in the search for fuel alternatives from inedible feedstock such as pongamia, jojoba, jatropha, especially the 2nd generation biofuel technologies such as algae-based biofuels. (author)

  11. Crude Oil Price Forecasting Based on Hybridizing Wavelet Multiple Linear Regression Model, Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques, and Principal Component Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

    2014-01-01

    Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series. PMID:24895666

  12. Crude Oil Price Forecasting Based on Hybridizing Wavelet Multiple Linear Regression Model, Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques, and Principal Component Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ani Shabri

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI, has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series.

  13. Crude oil price forecasting based on hybridizing wavelet multiple linear regression model, particle swarm optimization techniques, and principal component analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

    2014-01-01

    Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series.

  14. Forecasting energy market indices with recurrent neural networks: Case study of crude oil price fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun

    2016-01-01

    In an attempt to improve the forecasting accuracy of crude oil price fluctuations, a new neural network architecture is established in this work which combines Multilayer perception and ERNN (Elman recurrent neural networks) with stochastic time effective function. ERNN is a time-varying predictive control system and is developed with the ability to keep memory of recent events in order to predict future output. The stochastic time effective function represents that the recent information has a stronger effect for the investors than the old information. With the established model the empirical research has a good performance in testing the predictive effects on four different time series indices. Compared to other models, the present model is possible to evaluate data from 1990s to today with extreme accuracy and speedy. The applied CID (complexity invariant distance) analysis and multiscale CID analysis, are provided as the new useful measures to evaluate a better predicting ability of the proposed model than other traditional models. - Highlights: • A new forecasting model is developed by a random Elman recurrent neural network. • The forecasting accuracy of crude oil price fluctuations is improved by the model. • The forecasting results of the proposed model are more accurate than compared models. • Two new distance analysis methods are applied to confirm the predicting results.

  15. International evidence on crude oil price dynamics. Applications of ARIMA-GARCH models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadi, Hassan; Su, Lixian

    2010-01-01

    We examine the usefulness of several ARIMA-GARCH models for modeling and forecasting the conditional mean and volatility of weekly crude oil spot prices in eleven international markets over the 1/2/1997-10/3/2009 period. In particular, we investigate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of four volatility models - GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH and FIGARCH over January 2009 to October 2009. Forecasting results are somewhat mixed, but in most cases, the APARCH model outperforms the others. Also, conditional standard deviation captures the volatility in oil returns better than the traditional conditional variance. Finally, shocks to conditional volatility dissipate at an exponential rate, which is consistent with the covariance-stationary GARCH models than the slow hyperbolic rate implied by the FIGARCH alternative. (author)

  16. Pricing the (European) option to switch between two energy sources: An application to crude oil and natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatfaoui, Hayette

    2015-01-01

    We consider a firm, which can choose between crude oil and natural gas to run its business. The firm selects the energy source, which minimizes its energy or production costs at a given time horizon. Assuming the energy strategy to be established over a fixed time window, the energy choice decision will be made at a given future date T. In this light, the firm's energy cost can be considered as a long position in a risk-free bond by an amount of the terminal oil price, and a short position in a European put option to switch from oil to gas by an amount of the terminal oil price too. As a result, the option to switch from crude oil to natural gas allows for establishing a hedging strategy with respect to energy costs. Modeling stochastically the underlying asset of the European put, we propose a valuation formula of the option to switch and calibrate the pricing formula to empirical data on a daily basis. Hence, our innovative framework handles widely the hedge against the price increase of any given energy source versus the price of another competing energy source (i.e. minimizing energy costs). Moreover, we provide a price for the cost-reducing effect of the capability to switch from one energy source to another one (i.e. hedging energy price risk). - Highlights: • We consider a firm, which chooses either crude oil or natural gas as an energy source. • The capability to switch offers the firm a hedge against energy commodity price risk. • A European put option prices the ability to switch from crude oil to natural gas. • The capability to switch between two energy sources reduces the firm's energy costs. • The discount illustrates the efficiency of the energy management policy (e.g. timing).

  17. Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang; Yu, Lean; Lai, Kin Keung

    2009-01-01

    The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

  18. Estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil price. An EMD-based event analysis method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); School of Mathematical Sciences, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Yu, Lean [Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon (China)

    2009-09-15

    The impact of extreme events on crude oil markets is of great importance in crude oil price analysis due to the fact that those events generally exert strong impact on crude oil markets. For better estimation of the impact of events on crude oil price volatility, this study attempts to use an EMD-based event analysis approach for this task. In the proposed method, the time series to be analyzed is first decomposed into several intrinsic modes with different time scales from fine-to-coarse and an average trend. The decomposed modes respectively capture the fluctuations caused by the extreme event or other factors during the analyzed period. It is found that the total impact of an extreme event is included in only one or several dominant modes, but the secondary modes provide valuable information on subsequent factors. For overlapping events with influences lasting for different periods, their impacts are separated and located in different modes. For illustration and verification purposes, two extreme events, the Persian Gulf War in 1991 and the Iraq War in 2003, are analyzed step by step. The empirical results reveal that the EMD-based event analysis method provides a feasible solution to estimating the impact of extreme events on crude oil prices variation. (author)

  19. International crude oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies: Evidence from non-linear cointegration tests with unknown structural breaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bondia, Ripsy; Ghosh, Sajal; Kanjilal, Kakali

    2016-01-01

    Increasing greenhouse gas emissions, exhaustibility and geo-politics induced price volatility of crude oil has magnified the importance of looking for alternative sources of energy. In this paper, we investigate the long term relationship of stock prices of alternative energy companies with oil prices in a multivariate framework. To this end, we use threshold cointegration tests, which endogenously incorporate possible regime shifts in long run relationship of underlying variables. In contrast to the findings of the previous study by Managi and Okimoto (2013), our results indicate presence of cointegration among the variables with two endogenous structural breaks. This study confirms that ignoring the presence of structural breaks in a long time series data, as has been done in previous study, can produce misleading results. In terms of causality, while the stock prices of alternative energy companies are impacted by technology stock prices, oil prices and interest rates in the short run, there is no causality running towards prices of alternative energy stock prices in the long run. The study discusses the possible reasons behind the empirical findings and concludes with a discussion on short run and long run investment opportunities for the investors. - Highlights: • Cointegration between alternative energy companies stock price and oil price. • Threshold cointegration tests are employed. • Cointegration among the variables exists with two endogenous structural breaks. • Alternative energy companies stock price impacted by oil prices in short run. • No causality running towards prices of alternative energy stock prices in long run.

  20. Effect of Crude Oil Price on Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria (1981 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SH

    Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, LAUTECH, Ogbomoso, Nigeria, 2013. Effect of Crude Oil ... foreign exchange earnings since early. 1970s. ..... has been an improvement in the devaluation of the currency in .... IMF papers, Vol. 27:637 – 677.

  1. Market potential for Canadian crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heath, M.; Fisher, L.; Golosinski, D.; Luthin, A.; Gill, L.; Raggett, C.

    1997-01-01

    Future key markets for Canadian crude were evaluated, and probable flow volumes and prices were identified. Key concerns of market participants such as pricing, alternative crude sources, pipeline tariffs and crude quality, were examined. An overview of the competition faced by Canadian crude supply in global markets was presented. World crude oil supply and demand was discussed. US and Canadian crude oil supply (2000 to 2010), refinery demand for light and heavy crudes, existing future crude oil and refined product pipeline infrastructure, and pricing implications of changing crude oil flows were analyzed. The general conclusion was that the US market will continue to provide growing markets for Canadian crude oil, and that the Canadian supply to fulfill increased export requirements will be available due to the combined effects of increasing heavy crude supply, growing production from the east coast offshore, and recent and ongoing pipeline expansions and additions. 20 refs., 64 tabs., 42 figs

  2. Do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system? Evidence of imported crude by China and India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong Li; Lin Xiaowen, Sharon

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides empirical evidence on the changing structure of world oil price system by identifying an additional driver-emerging market factor. We choose China and India as a representative of emerging markets to examine if the quantity of crude oil imported by China and India is significant in the existing oil pricing system (. Our data starts from January 2002 and ends in March 2010, which includes the oil shock of 2007-2008. We utilize cointegration and error correction model framework developed by and in the analysis. Our results indicate that demand from emerging markets has become a significant factor in the world oil pricing system since 2003. This result is significant as it lends empirical support to the widely held conjecture that the oil shock of 2007-2008 is a demand-led shock (). Our result also has significant policy implications that go beyond the oil shock. The emerging market factor is there to stay and reflects the changing power between emerging and developed economies in the world economic system as a result of decades of fast economic development in the former. It will certainly influence policy issues related to oil and beyond. - Highlights: → We test the existing oil price modelling with data from 2002-2010. → We find evidence of structural breaks in the world oil pricing model. → We find that emerging market factor is a new driver in the world oil pricing system since 2003. → The emerging market factor lends empirical support to 'consumption-led' conjecture of oil shock. → New factor reflects significant changes of oil demand landscape following shifting economic power.

  3. The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bekiros, Stelios D.; Diks, Cees G.H.

    2008-01-01

    The present study investigates the linear and nonlinear causal linkages between daily spot and futures prices for maturities of one, two, three and four months of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. The data cover two periods October 1991-October 1999 and November 1999-October 2007, with the latter being significantly more turbulent. Apart from the conventional linear Granger test we apply a new nonparametric test for nonlinear causality by Diks and Panchenko after controlling for cointegration. In addition to the traditional pairwise analysis, we test for causality while correcting for the effects of the other variables. To check if any of the observed causality is strictly nonlinear in nature, we also examine the nonlinear causal relationships of VECM filtered residuals. Finally, we investigate the hypothesis of nonlinear non-causality after controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity in the data using a GARCH-BEKK model. Whilst the linear causal relationships disappear after VECM cointegration filtering, nonlinear causal linkages in some cases persist even after GARCH filtering in both periods. This indicates that spot and futures returns may exhibit asymmetric GARCH effects and/or statistically significant higher order conditional moments. Moreover, the results imply that if nonlinear effects are accounted for, neither market leads or lags the other consistently, videlicet the pattern of leads and lags changes over time. (author)

  4. Exports of crude oil, 1988

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-06-01

    Effective June 1, 1985, licensing and charging of oil exports ended. The Board now issues export orders specifying neither volumes nor prices and covering an exportation period of up to 1 year for light crude oil and up to 2 years for heavy crude oil, available on request to both Canadian and foreign companies. The Board has assumed a monitoring role, and export prices and volumes are reported monthly by exporters. This annual report provides a review of the volumes and prices associated with the supply and disposition of Canadian crude oil during 1988. Highlights are given with detailed information on prices, both internationally, in Canada, and the Chicago posted price by light or heavy crude, and on volumes including capacity and disposition in both domestic and export markets. A short description of the import market is included. Comparisons are made with the previous year. Export volumes of light crude oil in 1988 increased by 13% to average 50,200 m 3 /d. Export volumes of heavy crude also increased by ca 13% to 62,600 m 3 /d. 15 figs., 2 tabs

  5. Canada's crude oil resources : crude oil in our daily lives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bott, R.

    2001-10-01

    Created in 1975, the Petroleum Communication Foundation is a not-for-profit organization. The objective of the Foundation is to inform Canadians about the petroleum industry in Canada. It produces educational, fact-based publications and programs, employing a multi-stakeholder review process. The first section of this publication is devoted to crude oil and the benefits that are derived from it. It begins by providing a brief definition of crude oil, then moves to the many uses in our daily lives and the environmental impacts like air pollution, spills, and footprint on the land from exploration and production activities. Section 2 details the many uses of crude oil and identifies the major oil producing regions of Canada. A quick mention is made of non-conventional sources of crude oil. The search for crude oil is the topic of section 3 of the document, providing an overview of the exploration activities, the access rights that must be obtained before gaining access to the resource. The drilling of oil is discussed in section 4. Section 5 deals with issues pertaining to reservoirs within rocks, while section 6 covers the feeding of the refineries, discussing topics from the movement of oil to market to the refining of the crude oil, and the pricing issues. In section 7, the uncertain future is examined with a view of balancing the supply and demand, as crude oil is a non-renewable resource. Supplementary information is provided concerning additional publications published by various organizations and agencies. figs

  6. A METHODOLOGY FOR THE CHOICE OF THE BEST FITTING CONTINUOUS-TIME STOCHASTIC MODELS OF CRUDE OIL PRICE: THE CASE OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamidreza Mostafaei

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it has been attempted to select the best continuous- time stochastic model, in order to describe and forecast the oil price of Russia, by information and statistics about oil price that has been available for oil price in the past. For this purpose, method of The Maximum Likelihood Estimation is implemented for estimation of the parameters of continuous-time stochastic processes. The result of unit root test with a structural break, reveals that time series of the crude oil price is a stationary series. The simulation of continuous-time stochastic processes and the mean square error between the simulated prices and the market ones shows that the Geometric Brownian Motion is the best model for the Russian crude oil price.

  7. Forecasting the term structure of crude oil futures prices with neural networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Malinská, B.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 164, č. 1 (2016), s. 366-379 ISSN 0306-2619 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Term structure * Nelson–Siegel model * Dynamic neural networks * Crude oil futures Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 7.182, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/E/barunik-0453168.pdf

  8. The Impact of Crude Oil Price on Macroeconomic Variables: New Evidence from Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Abdullah, Ahmad Monir; Masih, Abul Mansur M.

    2014-01-01

    An understanding of how volatilities of and correlations between crude oil and macroeconomic variables change over time including their directions and size is of crucial importance for both the domestic and international investors with a view to diversifying their portfolios for hedging against unforeseen risks. This paper is a humble attempt to add value to the existing literature by empirically testing for the ‘time-varying’ and ‘scale dependent’ correlations between selected commodities an...

  9. World crude oil prices and the North Sea after the Gulf conflict

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemp, A.

    1992-01-01

    A large computerised financial model has been developed to simulate future activity in the United Kingdom continental shelf. Primary inputs into the model include all the publicly available information on currently producing fields relating to their historic and expected production rates, investment costs, operating costs and abandonment costs. From a variety of sources information has also been gathered on all new discoveries which have not yet been developed or even fully appraised in some cases. Estimates were made of the time periods at which such fields would be ready for development work and production to commence. For these future fields estimates were made of the likely investment costs, operating costs and abandonment costs. In making such calculations only limited technological progress was assumed. The bank of future fields is also conservative as it does not include any new discoveries from further exploration successes. Key inputs into the financial model are future oil and gas price scenarios. In this study, three price scenarios have been chosen for investigation - a base case, a high price case and a low price case. From the analysis, the possible consequences of a very modest real growth in oil and gas prices on the development of the very large numbers of discovered, but as yet undeveloped, oil and gas fields in the United Kingdom continental shelf are presented. (author)

  10. Implications of globalization on pricing for Canadian crudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Black, R. [Canadian Occidental Petroleum Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    1998-05-01

    The effects of globalization on Canadian crude oil prices was discussed. Since deregulation in October 1985, Canadian crude oil has competed directly against international crude oil through the use of the NYMEX contract price for light sweet crude oil as the base for establishing the price for Canadian crudes. Prior to that date, Alberta crude was marketed by the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission using the old block matrix which was loosely tied to the world market price. In addition to world crude oil prices other factors that affect the price of Canadian crude oil include technology impacts and global integration. Also, when the Sarnia to Montreal pipeline (Line 9) is reversed to bring offshore crude oil into the Ontario refining community, Canadian producers can expect some adverse effects on the price they are paid for their products leading up to the reversal as refiners start to swing over to their alternate suppliers. The offshore supply is expected to be about 140,000 barrels/day of light sweet crude oil, but all grades of Canadian crude oil will be affected.

  11. What to think about the shortage of oil resources and of the evolution of crude oil price?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, Denis; Bauquis, Pierre-Rene

    2007-09-01

    Produced by the 'Oil' work-group of the French Academy of Technologies, this report first proposes a synthesis of different points of view (optimistic, pessimistic, public bodies) on the issue of oil reserves and of oil world peak production. A second part analyzes the mechanisms of oil pricing while highlighting the long term dimension, but without addressing the market short-term operation. The last part discusses various possible evolution scenarios for production and price profiles on a middle and on a long term

  12. Can the Prices of the World Crude Oil as a Proxy Cost Transportation in Trade in Asean-3?

    OpenAIRE

    Adi, Lumadya

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of crude oil prices, GDPimporter, and GDPexporter on trade in three ASEAN includes: Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.Analysis tools are: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Fixed Effects Model (FEM). In addition to the three countries within ASEAN, researchers include two countries outside ASEAN, namely the USA and Japan. This type of data is the Panel Data with 60 observations.The results of data analysis based on FEM is:For Indonesia: GDP...

  13. Contribution of crude oil price to households' budget: The weight of indirect energy use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasparian, Jerome

    2009-01-01

    We propose a new method to evaluate the burden of oil price on any set of goods and services, and apply it to French households. This method takes into account the contribution of indirect energy consumption, which constitutes typically one half of the energy used by a typical French household. It yields an average burden of 4.4% in 2006, with a higher relative burden for households with lower income, older members and rural dwelling

  14. A broadened causality in variance approach to assess the risk dynamics between crude oil prices and the Jordanian stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouri, Elie

    2015-01-01

    Within the new developed causality-in-variance approach, this paper builds up a broad methodological framework to more accurately capture the risk spillover effects between global oil prices and Jordanian stock market returns during the period 1 March 2003–31 January 2014. The sample period is divided, on the basis of the 2008 financial crisis, into pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Results for the pre-crisis period show a lack of risk spillovers between global oil and the Jordanian stock market. After the crisis, however, we find evidence for one-way risk spillover running from the oil market. These findings have implications for the design of appropriate asset allocation and regulatory policies to manage risk spillover effects. -- Highlights: •A broad methodological framework accurately seizes dynamic risk spillover between oil prices and Jordanian stock returns. •We find insignificant risk spillover until the start of the financial crisis. •Crude oil transmits its risk to the Jordanian stock market

  15. The relationship between renewable energy assets and crude oil prices : an empirical analysis with emphasis on the effects of the financial crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Grøm, Halvdan Alexander

    2013-01-01

    In this thesis I have analysed the relationship between renewable energy stocks and the price of crude oil. As a part of my analysis I have provided a basic economic overview of the research period and how the value of renewable energy stocks and crude oil is determined. In order to analyse this relationship I have utilized a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) in addition to a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). My findings indicate that the aforementioned assets follow a simi...

  16. Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan, Ying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Zhang, Yue-Jun; Tsai, Hsien-Tang

    2008-01-01

    Estimation has been carried out using GARCH-type models, based on the Generalized Error Distribution (GED), for both the extreme downside and upside Value-at-Risks (VaR) of returns in the WTI and Brent crude oil spot markets. Furthermore, according to a new concept of Granger causality in risk, a kernel-based test is proposed to detect extreme risk spillover effect between the two oil markets. Results of an empirical study indicate that the GED-GARCH-based VaR approach appears more effective than the well-recognized HSAF (i.e. historical simulation with ARMA forecasts). Moreover, this approach is also more realistic and comprehensive than the standard normal distribution-based VaR model that is commonly used. Results reveal that there is significant two-way risk spillover effect between WTI and Brent markets. Supplementary study indicates that at the 99% confidence level, when negative market news arises that brings about a slump in oil price return, historical information on risk in the WTI market helps to forecast the Brent market. Conversely, it is not the case when positive news occurs and returns rise. Historical information on risk in the two markets can facilitate forecasts of future extreme market risks for each other. These results are valuable for anyone who needs evaluation and forecasts of the risk situation in international crude oil markets. (author)

  17. Time-frequency featured co-movement between the stock and prices of crude oil and gold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shupei; An, Haizhong; Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Xuan

    2016-02-01

    The nonlinear relationships among variables caused by the hidden frequency information complicate the time series analysis. To shed more light on this nonlinear issue, we examine their relationships in joint time-frequency domain with multivariate framework, and the analyses in the time domain and frequency domain serve as comparisons. The daily Brent oil prices, London gold fixing price and Shanghai Composite index from January 1991 to September 2014 are adopted as example. First, they have long-term cointegration relationship in time domain from holistic perspective. Second, the Granger causality tests in different frequency bands are heterogeneous. Finally, the comparison between results from wavelet coherence and multiple wavelet coherence in the joint time-frequency domain indicates that in the high (1-14 days) and medium frequency (14-128 days) bands, the combination of Brent and gold prices has stronger correlation with the stock. In the low frequency band (256-512 days), year 2003 is the structure broken point before which Brent and oil are ideal choice for hedging the risk of the stock market. Thus, this paper offers more details between the Chinese stock market and the commodities markets of crude oil and gold, which suggests that the decisions for different time and frequencies should consider the corresponding benchmark information.

  18. A Markov switching model of the conditional volatility of crude oil futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fong, Wai Mun; See, Kim Hock

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines the temporal behaviour of volatility of daily returns on crude oil futures using a generalised regime switching model that allows for abrupt changes in mean and variance, GARCH dynamics, basis-driven time-varying transition probabilities and conditional leptokurtosis. This flexible model enables us to capture many complex features of conditional volatility within a relatively parsimonious set-up. We show that regime shifts are clearly present in the data and dominate GARCH effects. Within the high volatility state, a negative basis is more likely to increase regime persistence than a positive basis, a finding which is consistent with previous empirical research on the theory of storage. The volatility regimes identified by our model correlate well with major events affecting supply and demand for oil. Out-of-sample tests indicate that the regime switching model performs noticeably better than non-switching models regardless of evaluation criteria. We conclude that regime switching models provide a useful framework for the financial historian interested in studying factors behind the evolution of volatility and to oil futures traders interested short-term volatility forecasts

  19. Crude oil burning mechanisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Gelderen, Laurens; Malmquist, L.M.V.; Jomaas, Grunde

    2015-01-01

    In order to improve predictions for the burning efficiency and the residue composition of in-situ burning of crude oil, the burning mechanism of crude oil was studied in relation to the composition of its hydrocarbon mixture, before, during and after the burning. The surface temperature, flame...... height, mass loss rate and residues of three hydrocarbon liquids (n-octane, dodecane and hexadecane), two crude oils (DUC and REBCO) and one hydrocarbon liquid mixture of the aforementioned hydrocarbon liquids were studied using the Crude Oil Flammability Apparatus. The experimental results were compared...... on the highest achievable oil slick temperature. Based on this mechanism, predictions can then be made depending on the hydrocarbon composition of the fuel and the measured surface temperature....

  20. The world energy demand in 2005: confirmed increase in energy consumptions, despite soaring crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chateau, Bertrand

    2006-01-01

    The world energy demand growth remains strong: 2004 experienced the highest growth since 19987, and brent prices had moderate impact in 2005: Very strong rise of energy consumptions despite high oil prices, Economic situation still favorable, Evolutions principally due to China. 2005 world energy consumption: 11,4 Gtoe: Asia accounts for 35% of the world energy consumption, China's weight (15%) continues to increase by one point every year (+5 points since 2000). Asia increases its pressure on the world energy growth in 2005: China accounts for almost half of the world energy consumption increase in 2005, the whole Asia accounts for 70%; The European consumption growth represents less than 5% of China's Growth; The American energy consumption decreases for the first time. 2005 world consumption by energy: With an increasing market share by 0,7 points, coal penetration increases; The oil market has lost 0,4 point, with an accelerating relative decrease; The relative weight of gas remains stable, with 21%. Energy efficiency and energy intensity of GDP: Slow-down of the world energy intensity decrease since 2001, whereas the economic growth is faster, due to changes in trends in China (increase in the recent years). Increase less sharp in China in 2005 (price effect). Energy intensity trends of GDP: Fast decrease in CIS since the recovery of the economic growth; Slow-down of the decrease in EU since 2000 and recovery in 2005 whereas the decrease has accelerated in the USA. Since 2000, the energy consumption increases less rapidly than the GDP almost everywhere, except for the Middle East. Projections until 2020: China and India could represent one third of the world energy growth, the whole of Asia more than 50%; Growth prospects for energy demand are low in the EU and CIS; America would account for 20% of the world energy growth (8% USA); In the rest of the world, high growth in Africa and in the Middle East. Gas could cover more than 40% of the world energy

  1. The oil barrel price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blondy, J.; Papon, P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes an overview and a prospective glance on the oil barrel price. It indicates the relevant indicators: Brent quotation, euro/dollar parity, economic activity indicators, world oil consumption distribution, crude oil production, refining capacity. It briefly presents the involved stake holders: crude oil producers, oil refiners, refined product dealers, and the OPEC. It discusses the major retrospective trends: evolution in relationship with geopolitical events and energy policies, strong correlation between oil demand and economic growth, prevalence of OPEC, growing importance of national oil companies. An emerging trend is noticed: growing role of emerging countries on the crude market. Some prospective issues are discussed: duration and intensity of economic recession, separation between economic growth and energy consumption, pace and ambition level of policies of struggle against climate change, exploitable resources, and geopolitical hazards. Four evolution hypotheses are discussed

  2. Multifractality, efficiency analysis of Chinese stock market and its cross-correlation with WTI crude oil price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Xiaoyang; Wei, Yu; Ma, Feng

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, the multifractality and efficiency degrees of ten important Chinese sectoral indices are evaluated using the methods of MF-DFA and generalized Hurst exponents. The study also scrutinizes the dynamics of the efficiency of Chinese sectoral stock market by the rolling window approach. The overall empirical findings revealed that all the sectoral indices of Chinese stock market exist different degrees of multifractality. The results of different efficiency measures have agreed on that the 300 Materials index is the least efficient index. However, they have a slight diffidence on the most efficient one. The 300 Information Technology, 300 Telecommunication Services and 300 Health Care indices are comparatively efficient. We also investigate the cross-correlations between the ten sectoral indices and WTI crude oil price based on Multifractal Detrended Cross-correlation Analysis. At last, some relevant discussions and implications of the empirical results are presented.

  3. When Will Occur the Crude Oil Bubbles?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su, Chi-Wei; Li, Zheng-Zheng; Chang, Hsu-Ling; Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we apply a recursive unit root test to investigate whether there exist multiple bubbles in crude oil price. The method is best suited for a practical implementation of a time series and delivers a consistent date-stamping strategy for the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. The empirical result indicates that there exist six bubbles during 1986–2016 when the oil price deviate from its intrinsic value based on market fundamentals. Specifically, oil price contains the fundamentals and bubble components. The dates of the bubbles correspond to specific events in the politics and financial markets. The authorities should actively fight speculative bubbles or just observe their evolutions and speculation activities may decrease, which is favour of the stabilisation of the staple commodities including crude oil price. These findings have important economic and policy implications to recognise the cause of bubbles and take corresponding measures to reduce the impact on the real economy cause of the fluctuation of crude oil price. - Highlights: • Investigate multiple bubbles in crude oil price. • Indicate six bubbles deviate from its intrinsic value based on market fundamentals. • The bubbles correspond to specific events in the politics and financial markets. • Reduce the impact on the real economy cause of the fluctuation of crude oil price.

  4. The Effect on the Indicators of Unemployment of International Crude Oil Price Volatility: Empirical Findings on the Case of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birol Erkan

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Oil prices may have an impact on economic activity through various transmission channels. A number of recent studies have emphasized the role of oil prices and macro-economic variables. The aim of this paper is to study the short-term/longterm relationship between oil prices and unemployment in Turkey. The most common cause of increasing oil prices over the last thirty years has been a decrease in supply. Prices increased during the early 1970s as OPEC reduced supply. Again prices increased in the late 1970s and early 1980s as the collapse of the government of the Shah of Iran and subsequent war between Iran and Iraq threatened supply. We applied Granger causal modals to determine if oil prices “Granger Caused” unemployment for data between 2005:01 and 2009:12 in Turkey. However, we performed Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR to determine the relationship between to variables in question, to estimate these relationships and to determine the delay values. As a result, long-term relationship between oil prices and unemployment rate are available in Turkey, and changes in the unemployment rate do not affect oil prices, oil prices changes affect the unemployment rate (this effect is the opposite direction

  5. 10 CFR 212.78 - Tertiary incentive crude oil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Tertiary incentive crude oil. 212.78 Section 212.78 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY OIL MANDATORY PETROLEUM PRICE REGULATIONS Producers of Crude Oil § 212.78 Tertiary incentive crude oil. Annual prepaid expenses report. By January 31 of each year after 1980, the project...

  6. Subordinated Levy Processes and Applications to Crude Oil Options

    OpenAIRE

    Noureddine Krichene

    2005-01-01

    One approach to oil markets is to treat oil as an asset, besides its role as a commodity. Speculative and nonspeculative activity by investors in the derivatives markets could be responsible for a sizable increase in oil prices. This paper recognizes both the consumption and investment aspects of crude oil and proposes Levy processes for modeling uncertainty and options pricing. Calibration to crude oil futures' options shows high volatility of oil futures prices, fat-tailed, and right-skewed...

  7. Heavy crude oil and synthetic crude market outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crandall, G.R.

    1997-01-01

    This presentation included an outline of the international heavy crude supply and demand versus Canadian heavy crude supply and disposition, and pricing outlook for synthetic crudes. Differences among crude oils such as light sweet, light sour, heavy and bitumen were described and illustrated with respect to their gravity, API, percentage of sulphur, metals and nitrogen. Internationally, heavy and sour crude supplies are forecast to increase significantly over the next four years. Discoveries of light sour crude in offshore Gulf of Mexico will provide a major new source of sour crude to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Venezuela's supplies of heavy and sour crude are also expected to increase over the next few years. Mexico and Canada have plans to increase their heavy crude production. All of the crudes will be aimed at the U.S. Gulf Coast and Midwest markets. Pentanes and condensates are also expected to increase based on the growing Canadian natural gas production. Diluent demand will also grow to match Canadian heavy crude/bitumen production. U.S. midwest refiners are proposing expansions to allow them to process more Canadian heavy crude oil. At present, only a few refineries are equipped to process significant amounts of synthetic crude. It was suggested that to absorb available heavy and synthetic production, increased penetration into both Canadian and U.S. markets will be required. Some refineries may have to be modified to process heavy and synthetic oil supplies. Heavy oil and synthetic producers may need to develop relationships with refiners such as joint ventures and term supply agreements to secure markets. 2 tabs., 12 figs

  8. Methods of analyzing crude oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooks, Robert Graham; Jjunju, Fred Paul Mark; Li, Anyin; Rogan, Iman S.

    2017-08-15

    The invention generally relates to methods of analyzing crude oil. In certain embodiments, methods of the invention involve obtaining a crude oil sample, and subjecting the crude oil sample to mass spectrometry analysis. In certain embodiments, the method is performed without any sample pre-purification steps.

  9. Crude prices - is OPEC relevant?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verleger, P.K. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Oil-exporting nations are in deep trouble. A global recession is suppressing consumption growth and frustrating exporter attempts to boost prices. Future prospects for oil exporters appear even bleaker. New production from several satellites of the former Soviet Union (FSU) will reach the market within a few years, limiting the increase in OPEC scales, and the FSU's incremental output will be augmented by much larger exports from Iraq. An oil price surge resulting from turmoil in Nigeria will, ironically, only serve to emphasize OPEC's loss of influence. When a cartel-like organization breaks down, the result is usually lower and more volatile prices, and so political or physical production disruptions have a greater impact on volumes supplied. In the future, these disruptions will occur more often because of the worsening financial situation in exporting countries. (author)

  10. Efficient way of importing crude oil from oil producing countries - A review on diversification policy of crude oil import

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Dal Sok [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-03-01

    Since the second oil crisis, the government has operated the import diversification support program to reduce the risk of crude oil import from Middle-East region and to raise the ability of dealing with the risk. This study tried to seek policy trends in future through reviewing the market environment related to the crude oil import diversification policy and the goal, instrument and effect of the policy. The supply and demand of crude oil and the price are influenced by market system in the world oil market and there are various types of crude oil trading available to both sellers and buyers. There is a probability that the suspension of supply in a certain area could be led to the price issue rather than the physical use of crude oil. In addition, the advantage of price with long-term contract of crude oil was abolished since the price of crude oil imported by term contract has been linked to spot prices. As a result, it is shown that the potential benefit from crude oil import diversification policy is reduced although political and social insecurity still exists in Middle-East region. Therefore, it is desirable to maintain the existing support program until the amount of stored oil reaches the optimum level and to help private enterprises determine the import considering economical efficiency and risk. (author). 36 refs., 5 figs., 23 tabs.

  11. How is the international price of a particular crude determined?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagen, Ronald

    1994-01-01

    If crude oil or oil products are not the final item of consumption, then oil is not bought or sold on any basis other than its contribution to the final product. The markets of oil products are thus 'derived' from more basic demands, and prices are determined by what they contribute to the costs of producing final products or commodities. Similarly, the value of a crude oil is derived from the value of the petroleum products it yields. This paper attempts to show how differences in crude oil prices seem to occur. The results should be of interest to producers of crude oil, since they will demonstrate how the marketability of their products might vary. (author)

  12. Analysis of the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on China's stock market in different periods-Based on time series network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Yang; Sun, Mei; Gao, Cuixia; Han, Dun; Li, Xiuming

    2018-02-01

    This paper studies the influence of Brent oil price fluctuations on the stock prices of China's two distinct blocks, namely, the petrochemical block and the electric equipment and new energy block, applying the Shannon entropy of information theory. The co-movement trend of crude oil price and stock prices is divided into different fluctuation patterns with the coarse-graining method. Then, the bivariate time series network model is established for the two blocks stock in five different periods. By joint analysis of the network-oriented metrics, the key modes and underlying evolutionary mechanisms were identified. The results show that the both networks have different fluctuation characteristics in different periods. Their co-movement patterns are clustered in some key modes and conversion intermediaries. The study not only reveals the lag effect of crude oil price fluctuations on the stock in Chinese industry blocks but also verifies the necessity of research on special periods, and suggests that the government should use different energy policies to stabilize market volatility in different periods. A new way is provided to study the unidirectional influence between multiple variables or complex time series.

  13. Oil market prices 1989/1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkins, G.

    1991-01-01

    There are many oil markets. Oil Market Prices lists the markets, provides statistics on prices and the volumes of trade, analyses the price structures in the markets and provides supplementary information on ocean freight rates and oil refining margins. Oil Market Prices will serve as a permanent record of crude oil prices including those quoted on the futures and forward markets, the many wholesale prices for refined oil products, prices consumers pay and the average prices received by the oil companies. In all instances the sources of the statistics are given together with comprehensive listing of alternative sources. (Author)

  14. Prospects for oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevens, P.

    1992-01-01

    The basic argument presented is that the oil price is set in an administrated market. The administration is undertaken by the controllers of excess capacity to produce crude oil. The extent to which the administrated price matches the market price is a function, first, of the strength and effectiveness of the market controller and, secondly, of the state of supply and demand and expectations in the market. Currently, the market is operating close to capacity, what limited excess capacity exists is located mainly in Saudi Arabia and the Saudi Arabians appear to be following a low price objective. While the Saudi Arabians pursue volume, the short term project, in the balance of a political upheaval, is that oil prices will remain below the $21 per barrel agreed in July 1990. There is a view that Saudi Arabia would take quick action to reverse a price collapse, but attention is drawn to previous miscalculations with respect to price collapse. Should political circumstances allow the return of Iraq to the oil market, then excess capacity within the Gulf members of OPEC will return and control will be much more difficult. (UK)

  15. Have oil and gas prices got separated?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdős, Péter

    2012-01-01

    This paper applies vector error correction models that show that oil and natural gas prices decoupled around 2009. Before 2009, US and UK gas prices had a long-term equilibrium with crude prices to which gas prices always reverted after exogenous shocks. Both US and UK gas prices adjusted to the crude oil price individually, and departure from the equilibrium gas price on one continent resulted in a similar departure on the other. After an exogenous shock, the adjustment between US and UK gas prices took approximately 20 weeks on average, and the convergence was mediated mainly by crude oil with a necessary condition that arbitrage across the Atlantic was possible. After 2009, however, the UK gas price has remained integrated with oil price, but the US gas price decoupled from crude oil price and the European gas price, as the Atlantic arbitrage has halted. The oversupply from shale gas production has not been mitigated by North American export, as there has been no liquefying and export capacity. - Highlights: ► VEC models are applied to investigate the relationship between oil and natural gas prices. ► While natural gas prices in Europe and Asia react to oil price, US gas price decoupled from oil in 2009. ► Since 2009, the US gas price has decoupled from the European and Asian gas prices.

  16. The world energy demand in 2006: Confirmed increase in energy consumptions in a context of soaring crude oil prices; but economic growth is twice faster - June, 10 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chateau, Bertrand

    2007-01-01

    Confirmed increase in energy consumptions in a context of soaring crude oil prices; but economic growth is twice faster. According to the latest estimates by Enerdata, The world energy demand growth remains sustained in 2006, but twice slower than the GDP's growth, probably due to high energy prices on the international market. Oil: The oil demand, very captive, confirms once again its low elasticity to prices. 71% of the world oil product demand is concentrated on transport and petro-chemical sectors (77% in Europe, +13 points since 1990; 89% in North America). Gas/Electricity: Gas demand growth in 2006 is driven by Asia and the CIS, obvious price effects in the European Union. The CIS regains its position in the world production growth (22% in 2006 against 13% in 2005 and 33% in 2004). The power generation growth is more and more dominated by China and other Asian countries. The world electricity demand increases in the same proportions as in 2005 and 2004: 4%/year. Coal: Coal accounts for half of the world increase in energy consumption in 2006. China still accounts for 72% of the coal consumption, India for 10%, the rest of Asia 8% the rest of the world 10%. (authors)

  17. The dynamics of a nonlinear relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices. A multivariate threshold regression approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Bwo-Nung; Yang, C.W.; Hwang, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper segments daily data from January of 1986 to April of 2007 into three periods based on certain important events. Both periods I and II indicate that the spot prices in general are higher than futures prices as was well-known in the literature. Only period-III (2001/9/11-2007/4/30) displays a reverse phenomenon: futures prices, in general, exceed spot prices. When the absolute value of a basis (futures-spot) is greater than the threshold value in the arbitrage area (regime 1 and 3), at least one of the error correction coefficients, representing adjustment towards equilibrium, is statistically significant. That is, there exists a tendency in the oil market in which prices move toward equilibrium. With respect to the short-run dynamic interaction between spot price change ((delta)s t ) and futures price change ((delta)f t ), our results indicate that when the spot price is higher than futures price, and the basis is less than certain threshold value (regime 3), there exists at least one causal relationship between (delta)s t and (delta)f t . Conversely, when the futures price is higher than spot price and the basis is higher than certain threshold value (regime 1), there exists at least one causal relationship between (delta)s t and (delta)f t . Finally, we use the method suggested by Diebold and Mariano [Diebold, Francis X., Mariano, Roberto S., 1995. Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13 (3), 253-263] to compare the predictive power between the linear and nonlinear models. Our empirical results indicate that the in-sample prediction of the nonlinear model is clearly superior to that of the linear model. (author)

  18. Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Sang Hoon; Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2009-01-01

    This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

  19. Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Sang Hoon [Department of Business Administration, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, 660-701 (Korea); Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min [Department of Economics, Pusan National University, Busan, 609-735 (Korea)

    2009-01-15

    This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

  20. Noteworthy: oil markets: Saudis abandon WTI price as benchmark

    OpenAIRE

    Jackson Thies

    2010-01-01

    Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company no longer uses West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil as its pricing benchmark. Saudi Aramco, the third largest U.S. oil supplier, switched to the Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) in January.

  1. Maglev crude oil pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knolle, Ernst G.

    1994-01-01

    This maglev crude oil pipeline consists of two conduits guiding an endless stream of long containers. One conduit carries loaded containers and the other empty returns. The containers are levitated by permanent magnets in repulsion and propelled by stationary linear induction motors. The containers are linked to each other in a manner that allows them, while in continuous motion, to be folded into side by side position at loading and unloading points. This folding causes a speed reduction in proportion to the ratio of container diameter to container length. While in side by side position, containers are opened at their ends to be filled or emptied. Container size and speed are elected to produce a desired carrying capacity.

  2. The behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices around OPEC and SPR announcements: An event study perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirer, Riza; Kutan, Ali M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the informational efficiency of crude oil spot and futures markets with respect to OPEC conference and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) announcements. We employ the event study methodology to examine the abnormal returns in crude oil spot and futures markets around OPEC conference and SPR announcement dates between 1983 and 2008. Our findings regarding OPEC announcements indicate an asymmetry in that only OPEC production cut announcements yield a statistically significant impact with the impact diminishing for longer maturities. We also find that the persistence of returns following OPEC production cut announcements creates substantial excess returns to investors who take long positions on the day following the end of OPEC conferences. In the case of SPR announcements, we find that the government's use of this program initiates a short-run market reaction following the announcement date. Furthermore, our tests of cumulative abnormal returns suggest that the market reacts efficiently to SPR announcements providing support for the use of the strategic reserves as a tool to stabilize the oil market. Our findings have significant policy implications for investors and are useful in designing effective energy policy strategies.

  3. The spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of the implied market information and characteristics of the correlation coefficient matrix of the international crude oil price returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian, Lixin; Ding, Zhenqi; Zhen, Zaili; Wang, Minggang

    2016-01-01

    The international crude oil market plays a crucial role in economies, and the studies of the correlation, risk and synchronization of the international crude oil market have important implications for the security and stability of the country, avoidance of business risk and people's daily lives. We investigate the information and characteristics of the international crude oil market (1999-2015) based on the random matrix theory (RMT). Firstly, we identify richer information in the largest eigenvalues deviating from RMT predictions for the international crude oil market; the international crude oil market can be roughly divided into ten different periods by the methods of eigenvectors and characteristic combination, and the implied market information of the correlation coefficient matrix is advanced. Secondly, we study the characteristics of the international crude oil market by the methods of system risk entropy, dynamic synchronous ratio, dynamic non-synchronous ratio and dynamic clustering algorithm. The results show that the international crude oil market is full of risk. The synchronization of the international crude oil market is very strong, and WTI and Brent occupy a very important position in the international crude oil market. (orig.)

  4. The spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of the implied market information and characteristics of the correlation coefficient matrix of the international crude oil price returns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tian, Lixin [Jiangsu University, Energy Development and Environmental Protection Strategy Research Center, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu (China); Nanjing Normal University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China); Ding, Zhenqi; Zhen, Zaili [Jiangsu University, Energy Development and Environmental Protection Strategy Research Center, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu (China); Wang, Minggang [Nanjing Normal University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu (China)

    2016-08-15

    The international crude oil market plays a crucial role in economies, and the studies of the correlation, risk and synchronization of the international crude oil market have important implications for the security and stability of the country, avoidance of business risk and people's daily lives. We investigate the information and characteristics of the international crude oil market (1999-2015) based on the random matrix theory (RMT). Firstly, we identify richer information in the largest eigenvalues deviating from RMT predictions for the international crude oil market; the international crude oil market can be roughly divided into ten different periods by the methods of eigenvectors and characteristic combination, and the implied market information of the correlation coefficient matrix is advanced. Secondly, we study the characteristics of the international crude oil market by the methods of system risk entropy, dynamic synchronous ratio, dynamic non-synchronous ratio and dynamic clustering algorithm. The results show that the international crude oil market is full of risk. The synchronization of the international crude oil market is very strong, and WTI and Brent occupy a very important position in the international crude oil market. (orig.)

  5. Oil intensities and oil prices : evidence for Latin America

    OpenAIRE

    Alaimo, Veronica; Lopez, Humberto

    2008-01-01

    Crude oil prices have dramatically increased over the past years and are now at a historical maximum in nominal terms and very close to it in real terms. It is difficult to argue, at least for net oil importers, that higher oil prices have a positive impact on welfare. In fact, the negative relationship between oil prices and economic activity has been well documented in the literature. Ye...

  6. 15 CFR 754.2 - Crude oil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... processed through a crude oil distillation tower. Included are reconstituted crude petroleum, and lease... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Crude oil. 754.2 Section 754.2....2 Crude oil. (a) License requirement. As indicated by the SS notation in the “License Requirements...

  7. Mercury in Canadian crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollebone, B.P.

    2005-01-01

    Estimates for average mercury concentrations in crude oil range widely from 10 ng/g of oil to 3,500 ng/g of oil. With such a broad range of estimates, it is difficult to determine the contributions of the petroleum sector to the total budget of mercury emissions. In response to concerns that the combustion of petroleum products may be a major source of air-borne mercury pollution, Environment Canada and the Canadian Petroleum Products Institute has undertaken a survey of the average total mercury concentration in crude oil processed in Canadian refineries. In order to calculate the potential upper limit of total mercury in all refined products, samples of more than 30 different types of crude oil collected from refineries were measured for their concentration of mercury as it enters into a refinery before processing. High temperature combustion, cold vapour atomic absorption and cold vapour atomic fluorescence were the techniques used to quantify mercury in the samples. The results of the study provide information on the total mass of mercury present in crude oil processed in Canada each year. Results can be used to determine the impact of vehicle exhaust emissions to the overall Canadian mercury emission budget. 17 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs

  8. Bitumen still seen as potential anchor on crude prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaremko, G.

    2001-01-01

    Researchers at the Canadian Energy Research Institute have released a 225-page technical report on downstream oil-refining markets entitled 'Markets for Canadian bitumen-based feedstock'. The report claims that 22 of 27 refineries that buy western Canadian production are not planning to improve their ability to process heavy grades of oil any time soon. Instead, investments will focus on complying with environmental requirements for reformulated refined products, particularly to eliminate sulphur impurities in gasoline and diesel fuel. Another focus will be to upgrade raw bitumen output into synthetic crude. It was shown that over the next 7 years, Canadian and U.S. oil markets have the potential to increase growth in bitumen production from 244,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 555,000 bpd. The potential for additional, upgraded synthetic crude oil is even greater, from 450,000 bpd to 806,000 bpd. Increasing the output of synthetic crude oil is considered to be an effective way to reduce North America's reliance on imported oil. Untreated, discount-priced bitumen can replace diminishing Canadian and U.S. production of refinery-ready light oil. The report projects that a US$1-per-barrel discount for Canadian heavy oil would generate sales of 140,000 barrels daily. The effect of a $1 discount would be almost twice as great for synthetic crude oil. Heavy oil sales rely greatly on maintaining a discount off prices for light grades. A $1-per-barrel premium could destroy demand for bitumen-based blends. Moody's Investors Service claims that deep discounting reflects global market conditions, risking Canadian production of heavy oil grades and seasonal lows in demand for bitumen as a raw material for asphalt

  9. The Effect of Consumer Expectation Index, Economic Condition Index and Crude Oil Price on Indonesian Government Bond Yield

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benny Budiawan Tjandrasa

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Governments sell bonds to finance their budget. The investors willing to buy government bonds because of the yield they will get, but on the other hand if government bond yields is  too high it would burden the state in paying the interest due. Various studies have been done to find the variables that affect government bond yield significantly, such as exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, and oil price. This study found two more variables namely consumer expectations index and the economic conditions index to complement the variables that have been discovered. Those two variables are used as a proxy of economic stability of a country, the increase of those variables represent the increase of economic stability and will reduce the level of risk and lowering the yield that investors demand. This research use descriptive method and explanatory study with secondary data using multivariate regression equation model. The results shown consumer expectation index and economic condition index have significant effect on Indonesian Government Bond yield. To keep consumer expectation index and economic condition index increase government should give a positive signal and a sense of security to investor.

  10. Crude oil pipeline expansion summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-02-01

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers has been working with producers to address issues associated with the development of new pipeline capacity from western Canada. This document presents an assessment of the need for additional oil pipeline capacity given the changing mix of crude oil types and forecasted supply growth. It is of particular interest to crude oil producers and contributes to current available information for market participants. While detailed, the underlying analysis does not account for all the factors that may come into play when individual market participants make choices about which expansions they may support. The key focus is on the importance of timely expansion. It was emphasized that if pipeline expansions lags the crude supply growth, then the consequences would be both significant and unacceptable. Obstacles to timely expansion are also discussed. The report reviews the production and supply forecasts, the existing crude oil pipeline infrastructure, opportunities for new market development, requirements for new pipeline capacity and tolling options for pipeline development. tabs., figs., 1 appendix

  11. Causality Relationship between Crude Oil Variables and Budget Variables in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Zakaria, Zukarnain; Shamsuddin, Sofian

    2017-01-01

    As an oil and gas exporter, Malaysia profited from higher world energy prices. However, the fall in oil prices from highs in 2014 significantly affected Malaysia’s government revenue (GR), hence its expenditure since the Malaysian GR still largely depends on oil revenues. Malaysia also has problems with high spending on energy subsidy, shrinking in its net crude oil export, and narrowing the gap between its crude oil production and consumption. Given this scenario, not only shocks in crude oi...

  12. Linkages between the markets for crude oil and the markets for refined products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Didziulis, V.S.

    1990-01-01

    To understand the crude oil price determination process it is necessary to extend the analysis beyond the markets for petroleum. Crude oil prices are determined in two closely related markets: the markets for crude oil and the markets for refined products. An econometric-linear programming model was developed to capture the linkages between the markets for crude oil and refined products. In the LP refiners maximize profits given crude oil supplies, refining capacities, and prices of refined products. The objective function is profit maximization net of crude oil prices. The shadow price on crude oil gives the netback price. Refined product prices are obtained from the econometric models. The model covers the free world divided in five regions. The model is used to analyze the impacts on the markets of policies that affect crude oil supplies, the demands for refined products, and the refining industry. For each scenario analyzed the demand for crude oil is derived from the equilibrium conditions in the markets for products. The demand curve is confronted with a supply curve which maximizes revenues providing an equilibrium solution for both crude oil and product markets. The model also captures crude oil price differentials by quality. The results show that the demands for crude oil are different across regions due to the structure of the refining industries and the characteristics of the demands for refined products. Changes in the demands for products have a larger impact on the markets than changes in the refining industry. Since markets for refined products and crude oil are interrelated they can't be analyzed individually if an accurate and complete assessment of a policy is to be made. Changes in only one product market in one region affect the other product markets and the prices of crude oil

  13. Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the

  14. Oil prices, SUVs, and Iraq. An investigation of automobile manufacturer oil price sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cameron, Ken [United States Navy (United States); Schnusenberg, Oliver [Department of Accounting and Finance, Coggin College of Business, The University of North Florida, 1 UNF Drive, Jacksonville, FL 32224 (United States)

    2009-05-15

    There has been much speculation about the recent upsurge in crude oil prices and the effect it will have on the economy and business. The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between oil prices and stock prices of automobile manufacturers. We add an oil price factor, measured alternatively by the excess change in WTI crude oil prices or the excess return on an energy ETF, to the Fama-French three-factor model over the period March 20, 2001 to September 30, 2008. Our dependent variable is the excess return on a price-weighted index of automobile manufacturers. Results indicate that oil prices add value to the pricing model, particularly for manufacturers specializing in SUVs and for a subperiod following the Iraq invasion on March 19, 2003. (author)

  15. Natural gas, NGL's and crude: supply, demand and price forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauft, T.L.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the major issues to watch in the crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL) markets in North America. The presentation began with background information concerning Purvin and Gertz, an employee-owned consulting firm whose employees are chemical engineers, holders of a Master of Business Administration (MBA), or economists. They specialize in providing strategic, commercial, and technical advice to the international energy industry. A closer look at each individual market was provided, looking at demand, supply, price drivers and others. The author concluded that world oil prices continue to be influenced by a war premium. Oil prices support natural gas, as well as the possibility of a supply issue. The gas processing margins have remained strong. The unknown quantities are the weather and economic recovery. figs

  16. Biodegradability of northern crude oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, F D; Westlake, D W.S.

    1976-01-01

    Field studies on the microbiological degradation of crude oils encompassed the placing of oil-soaked plots in two areas in the Northwest Territories and Alberta. Replicate plots received amendments of fertilizer, oil-utilizing bacteria, fertilizer plus bacteria or were untreated except for the oil. Changes in microbial numbers and chemical composition of recovered oil were determined periodically. The initial stimulatory effect on bacterial numbers brought about by the addition of fertilizers to oil-soaked plots diminished two years after the application to a point where the differences were no longer significant. Experiments carried out in the Norman Wells area to determine the effect of the amount of fertilizer applied on oil degradation have yielded inconclusive results. The data suggest that at least 2.7 kg of urea-phosphate fertilizer per kl of oil is required to maintain a reasonable oil degradation rate. Preliminary studies on the use of fertilizer coated with chemicals to increase its hydrophobic character indicate that they could be useful in treating wet-land oil spills. Soils from the McKenzie River drainage basin indicate that bacteria are present which can use oil under mesophilic conditions. However, the ability to use the same oil under psychrophilic conditions is more restricted. At least one bacterial species from each mixed population studied was capable of bringing about chemical changes in oil similar to those observed for the original mixed culture. The potential hazards and uses of the seeding of oil spills is discussed relative to the environmental conditions found in the northern part of Canada. 35 refs., 2 figs., 15 tabs.

  17. The dynamic linkages between crude oil and natural gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Ciner, Cetin; Lucey, Brian M.

    2017-01-01

    The time varying price spillovers between natural gas and crude oil markets for the period 1994 to 2014 are investigated. Contrary to earlier research, we show that in a large part of our sample the natural gas price leads the price of crude oil with price spillover effects lasting up to two weeks. This result is robust to a battery of tests including out-of-sample forecasting exercises. However, after 2006, we detect little price dependencies between these two energy commodities. These findings arise due to a conjunction of both demand and supply-side shocks arising from both natural and economic events, including Hurricane Katrina, the Tohoku earthquake and the Global Financial Crisis, as well as infrastructure and technological improvements. The increased use of new technologies such as hydraulic fracking for the extraction of gas and oil in particular affected supply in the latter part of the study. We conclude that the long term relation present in the early part of the sample has decoupled, such that price determination of these two energy sources is now independent. - Highlights: • Contrary to earlier research we find natural gas may lead crude oil prices over a long sample. • This finding holds in forecasting out of sample. • There may be a break in the relationship between oil and gas in 2006. • We suggest that new technologies and financial conditions have led to a decoupling of these markets. • Oil and natural gas prices may now be determined independently.

  18. Speculative phenomena impact on oil prices formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Matthieu

    2009-01-01

    Crude oil prices evolution between 2007 and 2009 has been the centre of a major controversy. This paper aims to understand the structural changes which happened on the oil market during the past decade. Analysis is focused on the consequences on oil prices of growing financial investments in commodities. More specifically, emphasis is set on little commented facts that comfort the hypothesis of a speculative bubble between 2007 and 2009

  19. Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro; Rodriguez, Eduardo; Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos; Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose

    2012-01-01

    The role of crude oil as the main energy source for the global economic activity has motivated the discussion about the dynamics and causes of crude oil price changes. An accurate understanding of the issue should provide important guidelines for the design of optimal policies and government budget planning. Using daily data for WTI over the period January 1986–March 2011, we analyze the evolution of the informational complexity and efficiency for the crude oil market through multiscale entropy analysis. The results indicated that the crude oil market is informationally efficient over the scrutinized period except for two periods that correspond to the early 1990s and late 2000s US recessions. Overall, the results showed that deregulation has improved the operation of the market in the sense of making returns less predictable. On the other hand, there is some evidence that the probability of having a severe US economic recession increases as the informational efficiency decreases, which indicates that returns from crude oil markets are less uncertain during economic downturns. - Highlights: ► Entropy concepts are used to characterize crude oil prices. ► An index of market efficiency is introduced. ► Except for periods of economic recession, the crude oil market is informationally efficient.

  20. An empirical analysis of the risk of crude oil imports in China using improved portfolio approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Gang; Wei, Yi-Ming; Fan, Ying; Liu, Lan-Cui

    2007-01-01

    This paper quantifies the diversification index of China's crude oil imports during the period 1996-2004, and explores the relationship between the monthly prices and Brent crude oil cash prices. Accordingly, we calculate the systematic and specific risks using portfolio theory of China's crude oil import over the period 1996-2004. Because China's crude oil import increased rapidly since 1996, we improve upon the traditional portfolio theory and develop a risk index model of portfolio theory for crude oil imports in order to explore objectively the changes in China's crude oil import risks. The results show that China's crude oil import risk is affected extensively by the fluctuation of international oil prices. So the traditional portfolio theory is insufficient to measure China's crude oil import risk. The improved portfolio theory risks index model reflects the effect of international oil prices, diversification, imports, and geopolitics factors etc., on crude oil import risk, and changes in crude oil import risk. Therefore, the risk index model of portfolio theory provides greater theoretical and methodological robustness as an indicator of China's crude oil import security than that offered from the application of traditional measures of dependence. (author)

  1. Islamic versus conventional stock market and its co-movement with crude oil: a wavelet analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kamarudin, Eka Azrin; Masih, Mansur

    2015-01-01

    Crude oil market plays an important role in economic development and its price changes give huge impact to the financial markets. In this paper, the relationships between crude oil and stock markets are examined. This study has selected Malaysian Islamic and conventional stock markets as a case study. Financialisation of crude oil and its frequent inclusion into investment portfolios warrant an analysis of the relationship between crude oil and stock market indices at various time scales or i...

  2. Russian oil prices: courting the world market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khartukov, E.M.

    1995-01-01

    The export and oil pricing of Russian crude was discussed. Russian crude and oil product exports are not yet wholly competitive with world oil markets. It was suggested that to do so, would be neither desirable nor actually possible at present. The reason for this is related to Russia's export duties regime and Russia's trade with its neighbouring countries which include the former Soviet republics. In the first half of 1995, the average border price of crude destined for those countries was US$75.04/tonne as opposed to US$114.77/tonne for crude exported to 'far-abroad', hard-currency markets. A breakdown of Russia's export duties for liquid fuels and a typical breakdown of export and domestic prices for Russian oil was provided. Russian crude is considerably under-priced mainly because of the poor state of the national refining industry which is in need of radical modernization. It was suggested that instead of globalization, it would be more appropriate to redirect the priorities of Russian energy policy towards defining optimal use of Russia's available energy potential, and rationalizing its domestic price structure first, which is the root cause of the national price problem. 5 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

  3. Oil Market and Prices Prospects for 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Papatulica

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The international crude oil prices started the year 2014 within parameters comparable to those of the precedent year: WTI (USA recorded 92 $/barrel, on the American spot market, considered a minimum value for the last 5 weeks, while Brent (Great Britain had a more stable evolution, on the spot Rotterdam market, staying around a value of 107,50 $/barrel. Despite analysts’ forecasts, which during the last 3 years staked on a lower oil price, as a consequence of the spectacular increase in non-OPEC oil production, namely of shale oil, the international oil price, namely that of Brent, closed each of the last 3 years around the same level, of 108 $/barrel. As for 2014, the great majority of oil analysts estimates again a decline of oil prices, as a result of a significant rise of oil offer globally, which will greatly surpass the demand rise.

  4. First crude oil from Chukotka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arenbrister, L.P.; Demidenko, K.A.; Zhmykhova, N.M.

    1986-01-01

    The physicochemical properties of the crude taken from Neogene deposits at a depth of 1486-1443 m are analyzed. The oil is distinguished by low contents of sulfur and resinous-asphaltenic substances, a high content of wax, and a high yield of light cuts distilling below 350 degrees C. The naptha cuts have high contents of naphthenes, and the diesel fuel cuts have high cetane numbers, low sulfur contents, and high contents of straight chain paraffins. The vacuum gasoil has a low density, a low viscosity, a low carbon residue and low contents of sulfur and nitrogen. This gasoil is a good feedstock for catalytic cracking and hydrocracking. The Verkhne-Echin crude is classified as light, low-sulfur, lowresin and high-wax. It can be used to produce jet fuels and summer-grade diesel fuels with low sulfur contents, as well as high-V.I. lube base stocks and liquid and solid paraffins.

  5. Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du Xiaodong; Yu, Cindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, an asymmetry between returns and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production.

  6. The oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alba, P.

    2000-01-01

    Statistical analysis cannot, alone, provide an oil price forecast. So, one needs to understand the fundamental phenomena which control the past trends since the end of world war II After a first period during which oil, thanks to its abundance, was able to increase its market share at the expense of other energies, the first oil shock reflects the rarefaction of oil resource with the tilting of the US production curve from growth to decline. Since then, the new situation is that of a ''cohabitation'' between oil and the other energies with the oil price, extremely volatile, reflecting the trial and error adjustment of the market share left to the other energies. Such a context may explain the recent oil price surge but the analogy between the US oil situation at the time of the first shock and that existing today for the world outside Middle East suggest another possibility, that of a structural change with higher future oil prices. The authors examine these two possibilities, think that the oil price will reflect both as long as one or the other will not become proven, and conclude with a series of political recommendations. (authors)

  7. Comparison of crude oil interfacial behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beetge, J.H.; Panchev, N. [Champion Technologies Inc., Fresno, TX (United States)

    2008-07-01

    The bulk properties of crude oil are used to predict its behaviour with regards to treatment, transport and processing. Surface active components, such as asphaltenes, are often used to study or explain critical interfacial behaviour of crude oil. This study investigated the differences and similarities in the interfacial behaviour of the collective surface active component in various crude oils from different sources. The properties of interfaces between crude oil and water were compared using a Teclis drop shape tensiometer. A portion of a crude oil sample was diluted in toluene and contacted with water in a rising drop configuration. Dynamic surface tension and interfacial rheology was examined as a function of time from the early stages of interface formation. Sinusoidal oscillation of the drop volume allowed for the evaluation of visco-elastic behaviour of the crude oil/water interface as it developed with time. The Gibbs elastic modulus, as well as its elastic and viscose components were calculated from the drop shape. The interfacial behaviour was expressed in terms of concentration, oscillation frequency and interface age. It was concluded that knowledge of crude oil interfacial character could be of value in the treatment, transport and processing of crude oils because the its behaviour may play a significant role in crude oil production and processing.

  8. Classification of weathered crude oils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogt, N.B.; Sjoegren, C.E.; Lichtenthaler, G.

    1987-01-01

    The NORDTEST procedure (1) for oil spill identification has been applied successfully at several occasions. The NORDTEST procedure includes analyses of sulfur (XRF), vanadium and nickel (ICP/AAS), GC, HPLC and UV-fluorescence. The NORDTEST procedure does not include GC-MS as an analytical method. As part of a joint Nordic to evaluate the NORDTEST procedure for oil identification, with participants from Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway, thirty artificially weathered crude oils from four geographical regions have been analyzed (2). The analytical methods evaluated include sulfur analysis, vanadium and nickel analysis, infrared analysis, UV-fluorescence, gas chromatography, high pressure liquid chromatography and high resolution GC-mass spectrometry. Figure 1 shows the distribution of variables analyzed in each analytical method. The 190 variables from GC-MS were split into 7 groups according to chemical considerations. These were steranes (25 var.), triterpanes (16 var.), di(+)aromatics (63 var.), sulf. aromatics (30 var.), monoaromatics (19 var.), cycloalkanes (15 var.) and n-alkanes (22) variables. The data from these chemical analyses have been evaluated for use in oil spill identification purposes

  9. Oil prices remain firm, despite economic slump

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brady, Aaron; Giesecke Linda

    2002-01-01

    Despite all the evidence of sluggish economic growth throughout the world this year, WTI crude oil prices have averaged about $24/bbl year-to-date. Although prices have been lower than year-ago levels, they're a far cry from the lows that occurred in 1998 and at the beginning of 1999. Mounting tensions in the Middle East have given crude prices support. While the market has taken these tensions into account since the beginning of the year, more recent concerns about a possible U.S military conflict with Iraq have added a larger war premium to crude prices. Note that the halt of Iraqi exports itself may not be as detrimental as perceived, since these exports could easily be replaced by OPEC's excess capacity. In part, we have already seen a reduction in Iraqi exports this year due to a pricing dispute

  10. Iranian-Oil-Free Zone and international oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza; Raeisian Parvari, Mozhgan

    2014-01-01

    One of the main elements of economic sanctions against Iran due to its nuclear and military programs is crude oil exportation restrictions in addition to investment in Iranian energy related projects. Senders of such sanction are interested in understanding the impacts of such embargos on international oil prices. We apply unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model, using impulse response functions (IRF) and variance decomposition analysis (VDA) tools with annual data from 1965 to 2012 to analyze the dynamic response of international oil prices to Iranian oil export sanction. Controlling for the supply of non-Iranian oil, the world GDP per capita, and post-Islamic revolution exogenous dummy variables, we show that international oil prices respond negatively and statistically significant to increasing shock in absolute negative changes of the Iranian oil exports – our proxy of Iran oil sanctions – following the first 2 years after shock. The main reason is the positive response of the non-Iranian oil supply to negative shocks in Iranian oil exports, filling the missing supply of Iranian oil in international markets. - Highlights: • We analyze the interconnections between Iranian oil supply and global oil prices. • We use VAR modeling and annual data from 1965 to 2012 for the case of Iran. • There are no inflationary effects of Iranian oil sanction on world oil prices. • Non-Iranian oil supply offsets the missing Iranian oil in the market

  11. Degradation of crude oil by marine cyanobacteria

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Raghukumar, C.; Vipparty, V.; David, J.J.; Chandramohan, D.

    The marine cyanobacteria Oscillatoria salina Biswas, Plectonema terebrans Bornet et Flanhault and Aphanocapsa sp. degraded Bombay High crude oil when grown in artificial seawater nutrients as well as in plain natural seawater. Oil removals...

  12. The impact of crude oil price on Islamic stock indices of South East Asian countries: Evidence from MGARCH-DCC and wavelet approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Monir Abdullah

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is the first attempt at testing the ‘time-varying’ and ‘time-scale dependent’ volatilities of and correlations between the selected Islamic stock indices of South East Asian countries and selected commodities for enhancing portfolio diversification benefits. Consistent with the results of our VECM, our analysis based on the application of the recent wavelet technique MODWT, indicates that the Singapore Islamic index is leading the other Islamic indices and the commodities. From the point of view of portfolio diversification benefits, based on the extent of dynamic correlations between variables, our results suggest that an investor should be aware that the Philippine Islamic stock index is less correlated with the crude oil in the short run (as evidenced in the continuous wavelet transform analysis and that an investor holding the crude oil can gain by including the Malaysian Islamic stock index in the portfolio (as evidenced in the Dynamic conditional correlation analysis.

  13. Oil company profitability: observations on the use of oil product price assessments and associated errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkins, Gilbert

    2000-01-01

    Oil companies often report the exact price obtained for crude oil sales. Furthermore, crude oil prices may be linked to the price of Brent crude oil which is actively and very transparently traded on the International Petroleum Exchange. Brent crude oil prices are reported worldwide electronically and in many newspapers on a daily basis. Gas oil (No. 2 Fuel oil in the USA) is actively traded on the IPE and on NYMEX and the prices are also reported worldwide almost instantaneously. One grade of unleaded gasoline is traded on NYMEX but all other oil products do not have regulated and transparent markets. The prices of these products are assessed by price reporters following daily discussions with active oil traders. Two prices are assessed and reported, the bid (low) and offer (high) even if no trade has taken place. The oil industry itself and oil products consumers make much use of these assessed prices. The object of this paper is to provide some statistical detail on the differences between various product price assessments made through 2000. From these differences, it is possible to provide an indication of the precision of oil product price assessments However, it is doubtful if precision data based on a simple determination of the standard deviation of the differences between the assessment made by the various price reporting services would be of practical use. (Author)

  14. Crude oil growth impact on pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devries, O.

    2005-01-01

    This paper provided an outline of crude oil production and supply in Canada. Details of oil sands projects in Athabasca, Cold Lake and Peace River were presented. A chart of oil sands growth by major project was provided. A list of new emerging oil sands crude types was also presented along with details of a synthetic bitumen blending synergy. Maps of Western Canadian crude oil markets were provided, along with details of refinery and market demand by crude type. Various pipeline alternatives to new markets were examined, with reference to Enbridge Pipeline's supply and capacity. Details of the Hardisty to U.S Gulf Coast Pipeline and the Edmonton to Prince Rupert Pipeline and its terminal and dock facilities were presented. It was concluded that pipeline capacity and seasonal factors will influence market demand, while linefill, crude types and the quality of the product will influence operational strategies. tabs., figs

  15. Natural gas and crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valais, M.R.

    1991-01-01

    Two main development could gradually modify these traditional features of natural gas markets and prices. First, environmental pressures and the tightening of emission standards and of the quality specifications for fuels should work in favor of natural gas. Second the increasing distance of resources in relation to the major consuming zones should bring about a considerable development of international natural gas trade. International expansion should mark the development of the gas industry in the coming decades. This evolution will give natural gas an importance and a role appreciably closer to those of oil on the world energy scene. But it is obvious that such a development can come about only at the cost of considerable investments for which the economic viability is and will remain dependent on the level of the prices of natural gas as the inlet to its consuming markets. This paper attempts to answer the questions: Will these markets accept a new scale of value for gas in relation to other fossil fuels, including oil, which will take into account new environmental constraints and which will be able to fulfill the formidable financial needs of the gas industry in the coming decades?

  16. Hedging strategy for crude oil trading and the factors influencing hedging effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Won-Cheol; Jae Kim, Hyun

    2010-01-01

    This study analyzes the hedging effectiveness of different hedge type and period by Korean oil traders. Both crude oil price and exchange rate risks are considered. Theoretical models are formulated to estimate the hedge ratios by separate and complex hedge types. The hedging period covers 1-12 months. This study also performs some statistical works to investigate the relationship between the hedging effectiveness and the crude oil price sensitivity to exchange rate. In addition, the relationship between the hedging effectiveness and the volatilities of crude oil price and exchange rate is analyzed. (author)

  17. Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz; Pires Manso, José R.

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines cointegration relationships and Granger causality nexus in a trivariate framework among oil consumption, economic growth and international oil price in Portugal. For this purpose, we employ two Granger causality approaches: the Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction model (VECM) and the Toda–Yamamoto approaches. Cointegration test proves the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship among these variables and VECM and Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality tests indicate that there is bidirectional causality between crude oil consumption and economic growth (feed back hypothesis). Therefore, the Portuguese economy does not support crude oil conservation hypothesis. Consequently, policymakers should consider that implementing oil conservation and environmental policies may negatively impact on the Portuguese economic growth. - Highlights: ► We examine Granger causality among oil consumption, GDP and oil price in Portugal. ► VECM and Toda–Yamamoto tests found bidirectional causality among oil and GDP. ► Portuguese economy does not support the crude oil conservation hypothesis.

  18. Oil price prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toalster, J.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, four different, popular approaches to the analysis of oil price movements will be considered and an alternative method will be proposed. Whilst we await the development of a rigorous theoretical framework within which to evaluate the phenomenon of oil price movements some progress may be effected by an amalgam of approaches, with the traditional supply and demand model being supplemented by observations regarding political and social developments in particular countries or regions, together with an assessment of emerging and prospective technological achievements. In this way it should be possible to identify the critical influences at work, from which it should also be possible to select either the single most important variable or combination of variables, affecting the oil price. Moreover, it is my belief that the crucial variables influencing the oil price almost certainly, are more likely to be political and social, rather than economic. In this context and notwithstanding the fact that there is only a minimal level of surplus productive capacity in the world oil industry at present (perhaps 1-2 million b/d albeit rising rapidly), it is reasonable to conclude that oil prices will average around $18-19 a barrel for North Sea Brent in 1992 and 1993, with oscillations of $2-4 a barrel either side, rising slightly in 1994 to $19-20 a barrel and to $20-21 a barrel in 1995. Thereafter, the most likely outcome is for a rise in line with inflation (say $ a barrel/annum) with no prospect of an upward spike, because demand will be weaker than most commentators expect up to the year 2000, whilst OPEC oil supplies will be substantially higher than the consensus forecast. (author)

  19. Evidence of efficiency in United States futures oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duchock, C.J. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to use the Perpetual Contract Data for West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures contracts in studies of the US crude oil futures market prices to determine whether the market was efficient. Analysis was done to determine whether the Perpetual Contract Data exhibited the characteristics of a random walk. Daily data on US crude oil perpetual futures contract prices were analyzed using standard statistical techniques and spectral analysis techniques. Spectral analysis was used on the first differences of daily data to determine whether the price change data contained cyclicality. Results showed no significant cycles or autocorrelation in the data, concluding there was evidence to indicate the Perpetual Contract Data for futures prices is a random walk. This is similar to the conclusion by Howard (1988) that spot West Texas Intermediate Crude prices follow a random walk. Thus, both the futures and spot markets efficiently capture current information in prices

  20. An estimation of crude oil import demand in Turkey: Evidence from time-varying parameters approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozturk, Ilhan; Arisoy, Ibrahim

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to model crude oil import demand and estimate the price and income elasticities of imported crude oil in Turkey based on a time-varying parameters (TVP) approach with the aim of obtaining accurate and more robust estimates of price and income elasticities. This study employs annual time series data of domestic oil consumption, real GDP, and oil price for the period 1966–2012. The empirical results indicate that both the income and price elasticities are in line with the theoretical expectations. However, the income elasticity is statistically significant while the price elasticity is statistically insignificant. The relatively high value of income elasticity (1.182) from this study suggests that crude oil import in Turkey is more responsive to changes in income level. This result indicates that imported crude oil is a normal good and rising income levels will foster higher consumption of oil based equipments, vehicles and services by economic agents. The estimated income elasticity of 1.182 suggests that imported crude oil consumption grows at a higher rate than income. This in turn reduces oil intensity over time. Therefore, crude oil import during the estimation period is substantially driven by income. - Highlights: • We estimated the price and income elasticities of imported crude oil in Turkey. • Income elasticity is statistically significant and it is 1.182. • The price elasticity is statistically insignificant. • Crude oil import in Turkey is more responsive to changes in income level. • Crude oil import during the estimation period is substantially driven by income.

  1. Statoil`s exposure to oil price fluctuations: An analysis on investment level and stock price

    OpenAIRE

    Nåmdal, Synne Meling; Meling, Kristine

    2015-01-01

    Master's thesis in Finance In this thesis an econometric analysis of Statoil’s investment level and stock return has been performed, with purpose of examine the affect that fluctuations in the price of crude oil has on these variables. The results revealed that crude oil prices have a significant impact on Statoil´s stock returns, due to the direct impact the crude oil price has on Statoil’s cash flows. The investment level does not seem to be affected by either of the variables in the ana...

  2. Statoil`s exposure to oil price fluctuations: An analysis on investment level and stock price

    OpenAIRE

    Nåmdal, Synne Meling; Meling, Kristine

    2015-01-01

    In this thesis an econometric analysis of Statoil’s investment level and stock return has been performed, with purpose of examine the affect that fluctuations in the price of crude oil has on these variables. The results revealed that crude oil prices have a significant impact on Statoil´s stock returns, due to the direct impact the crude oil price has on Statoil’s cash flows. The investment level does not seem to be affected by either of the variables in the analysis, and this could indicate...

  3. Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moosa, I.A.; Al-Loughani, N.E.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents some empirical evidence on market efficiency and unbiasedness in the crude oil futures market and some related issues. On the basis of monthly observations on spot and futures prices of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, several tests are carried out on the relevant hypotheses. The evidence suggests that futures prices are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasters of spot prices. Furthermore, a GARCH-M(1,1) model reveals the existence of a time varying risk premium. (author)

  4. Bacterial consortia for crude oil spill remediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chhatre, S.; Purohit, H.; Shanker, R.; Khanna, P.

    1996-01-01

    Oil spills generate enormous public concern and highlight the need for cost effective ad environmentally acceptable mitigation technologies. Physico-chemical methods are not completely effective after a spill. Hence, there is a need for improved and alternative technologies. Bioremediation is the most environmentally sound technology for clean up. This report intends to determine the potential of a bacterial consortium for degradation of Gulf and Bombay High crude oil. A four membered consortium was designed that could degrade 70% of the crude oil. A member of consortium produced a biosurfactant, rhamnolipid, that emulsified crude oil efficiently for effective degradation by the other members of consortium. The wide range of hydrocarbonoclastic capabilities of the selected members of bacterial consortium leads to the degradation of both aromatic and aliphatic fractions of crude oil in 72 hours. (Author)

  5. Measuring efficiency of international crude oil markets: A multifractality approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niere, H. M.

    2015-01-01

    The three major international crude oil markets are treated as complex systems and their multifractal properties are explored. The study covers daily prices of Brent crude, OPEC reference basket and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude from January 2, 2003 to January 2, 2014. A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) is employed to extract the generalized Hurst exponents in each of the time series. The generalized Hurst exponent is used to measure the degree of multifractality which in turn is used to quantify the efficiency of the three international crude oil markets. To identify whether the source of multifractality is long-range correlations or broad fat-tail distributions, shuffled data and surrogated data corresponding to each of the time series are generated. Shuffled data are obtained by randomizing the order of the price returns data. This will destroy any long-range correlation of the time series. Surrogated data is produced using the Fourier-Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (F-DFA). This is done by randomizing the phases of the price returns data in Fourier space. This will normalize the distribution of the time series. The study found that for the three crude oil markets, there is a strong dependence of the generalized Hurst exponents with respect to the order of fluctuations. This shows that the daily price time series of the markets under study have signs of multifractality. Using the degree of multifractality as a measure of efficiency, the results show that WTI is the most efficient while OPEC is the least efficient market. This implies that OPEC has the highest likelihood to be manipulated among the three markets. This reflects the fact that Brent and WTI is a very competitive market hence, it has a higher level of complexity compared against OPEC, which has a large monopoly power. Comparing with shuffled data and surrogated data, the findings suggest that for all the three crude oil markets, the multifractality is mainly due to long

  6. EVALUATION OF CORROSION COST OF CRUDE OIL PROCESSING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ADESANYA A.O.

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil production industry as the hub of Nigeria Economy is not immune to the global financial meltdown being experienced world over which have resulted in a continual fall of oil price. This has necessitated the need to reduce cost of production. One of the major costs of production is corrosion cost, hence, its evaluation. This research work outlined the basic principles of corrosion prevention, monitoring and inspection and attempted to describe ways in which these measures may be adopted in the context of oil production. A wide range of facilities are used in crude oil production making it difficult to evaluate precisely the extent of corrosion and its cost implication. In this study, cost of corrosion per barrel was determined and the annualized value of corrosion cost was also determined using the principles of engineering economy and results analyzed using descriptive statistics. The results showed that among the corrosion prevention methods identified, the use of chemical treatment gave the highest cost contribution (81% of the total cost of prevention while coating added 19%. Cleaning pigging and cathodic protection gave no cost. The contribution of corrosion maintenance methods are 60% for repairs and 40% for replacement. Also among the corrosion monitoring and inspection identified, NDT gave the highest cost contribution of 41% of the total cost, followed by coating survey (34%. Cathodic protection survey and crude analysis gives the lowest cost contribution of 19% and 6% respectively. Corrosion control cost per barrel was found to be 77 cent/barrel. The significance of this cost was not much due to high price of crude oil in the international market. But the effect of corrosion in crude oil processing takes its toll on crude oil production (i.e. deferment.

  7. Assessing the effect of oil price on world food prices: Application of principal component analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim; Shokoohi, Zainab

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the co-movement of food prices and the macroeconomic index, especially the oil price, by principal component analysis to further understand the influence of the macroeconomic index on food prices. We examined the food prices of seven major products: eggs, meat, milk, oilseeds, rice, sugar and wheat. The macroeconomic variables studied were crude oil prices, consumer price indexes, food production indexes and GDP around the world between 1961 and 2005. We use the Scree test and the proportion of variance method for determining the optimal number of common factors. The correlation coefficient between the extracted principal component and the macroeconomic index varies between 0.87 for the world GDP and 0.36 for the consumer price index. We find the food production index has the greatest influence on the macroeconomic index and that the oil price index has an influence on the food production index. Consequently, crude oil prices have an indirect effect on food prices. - Research Highlights: →We investigate the co-movement of food prices and the macroeconomic index. →The crude oil price has indirect effect on the world GDP via its impacts on food production index. →The food production index is the source of causation for CPI and GDP is affected by CPI. →The results confirm an indirect effect among oil price, food price principal component.

  8. Electric Cars and Oil Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Azar, Jose

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies the joint dynamics of oil prices and interest in electric cars, measured as the volume of Google searches for related phrases. Not surprisingly, I find that oil price shocks predict increases in Google searches for electric cars. Much more surprisingly, I also find that an increase in Google searches predicts declines in oil prices. The high level of public interest in electric cars between April and August of 2008 can explain approximately half of the decline in oil prices...

  9. Implications of lifting the ban on the export of Alaskan crude oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-03-26

    Present legislation effectively bans the export of crude oil produced in the United States. The ban has been in effect for years and is particularly stringent with respect to crude oil produced in Alaska, particularly on the North Slope. The Alaska crude export ban is specifically provided for in the Trans-Alaska Pipeline Authorization Act of 1973 and in other legislation. It was imposed for two reasons. The first was to reduce US dependence on imported crude oil. The Arab oil embargo had been imposed shortly before the Act was passed and a greater measure of energy independence was considered imperative at that time. The second reason was to assure that funds expended in building an Alaskan pipeline would benefit domestic users rather than simply employed to facilitate shipments to other countries. The main objective of this report is to estimate the potential impacts on crude oil prices that would result from lifting the export ban Alaskan crude oil. The report focuses on the Japanese market and the US West Coast market. Japan is the principal potential export market for Alaskan crude oil. Exports to that market would also affect the price of Alaskan crude oil as well as crude oil and product prices on the West Coast and the volume of petroleum imported in that area. 3 figs., 8 tabs.

  10. Prospects for oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caddy, P.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the wave in oil prices which occurred in 1991, although appearing to suggest price instability, in fact shows the opposite. Steady oscillation between a low price level that leads to new customers and a high price that encourages customers to switch to alternatives is a sign of a stable market. This relative stability was achieved against the background of the political upheaval in the USSR and Eastern Europe and its unpredictable consequences. Such political uncertainties to one side, the difficulties of assessing demand trends in the light of the imponderables of the state of the world economy and the weather are stressed. Despite these problems, the view is expressed that correct reading of signals up the supply chain by producers should ensure continued relative price stability. This is not to say that prices will stay exactly the same, just that they will be bound within a trading range set by anticipated consumer and producer responses to the fluctuating prices. (UK)

  11. REVIEW OF PVT CORRELATIONS FOR CRUDE OILS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    win

    approaches that of the fluids used. During the last 50 years, ... applied to crude oils from other regions (Sutton and Farshad,. 1990). ... S. S. Ikiensikimama, Department of Chemistry Engineering, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria. O. Ogboja ...

  12. California demand and supply of crude oil: An econometric analysis with projections to 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibegbulam, B.N.

    1991-01-01

    Forecast of California domestic crude oil supply requires the forecasts of California crude oil production and supply from Alaska. Future California crude oil production is forecast with an econometric model that postulates production as a function of reserves and reserves as a function of crude oil prices and exploration and development costs. Future supplies from Alaska are obtained by subtracting forecasts of Alaskan crude oil demand and shipments to the States of Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington from Alaskan North Slope crude oil production forecasts. A two-stage process was used to forecast future California crude oil demand. In the first stage, the demand for refined crude oil products was predicted with a single-equation double logarithmic rational-expectations dynamic model. In the second stage, the total demands obtained in the first stage were converted into a crude oil equivalent. It was found that the current surplus of domestic crude oil in California will end in 1994. Thereafter, California crude oil imports will sharply increase

  13. Dynamic cyclical comovements of oil prices with industrial production, consumer prices, unemployment, and stock prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, Bradley T.; Thompson, Mark A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the empirical relationship between oil prices and several key macroeconomic variables. In particular, we investigate the cyclical comovements of crude oil prices with output, consumer prices, unemployment, and stock prices. The methodology involves the use of the Hodrick-Prescott [Hodrick, R.J., Prescott, E.C., 1980. Post-War US Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. Working Paper, Carnegie Mellon University] and Baxter-King [Baxter, M., King, R.G., 1999. Measuring business cycles: approximate band-pass filters for economic time series. Review of Economics and Statistics 81, 575-593] filters, as well as the recently developed full-sample asymmetric Christiano-Fitzgerald [Christiano, L.J., Fitzgerald, T.J., 2003. The band pass filter. International Economic Review 44, 435-465] band-pass filter. Contemporaneous and cross-correlation estimates are made using the stationary cyclical components of the time series to make inference about the degree to which oil prices move with the cycle. Besides documenting a number of important cyclical relationships using three different time series filtering methods, the results suggest that crude oil prices are procyclical and lag industrial production. Additionally, we find that oil prices lead consumer prices. (author)

  14. How crude oil consumption impacts on economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz; Pires Manso, José R.

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the causality relationship between crude oil consumption and economic growth in twenty three Sub-Saharan African countries. We applied a multivariate panel Granger causality framework during 1985–2011 and we included crude oil price as the control variable of the model. The results indicate that in the short-run, there is a bi-directional causality relationship between crude oil consumption and economic growth in oil importing region and there is a uni-directional causality relationship from crude oil consumption to GDP in oil exporting region. However, in the long-run there is a bi-directional causality relationship between them in both regions. Therefore, reducing crude oil consumption without employing appropriate policies adversely impacts on economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa. Hence, in order to reduce crude oil dependency of the region policymakers should pay more attention to the issue of energy efficiency programs. - Highlights: ► We examined Granger causality among oil consumption and GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa. ► Crude oil price is the control variable of the model. ► There is short run bi-directional causality among oil and GDP (oil importing). ► There is short run uni-directional causality from oil to GDP (oil exporting). ► There is a long run bi-directional causality among oil and GDP in both regions

  15. Do OPEC announcements influence oil prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loutia, Amine; Mellios, Constantin; Andriosopoulos, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of OPEC production decisions (increase, cut, maintain) on both WTI and Brent crude oil prices between Q1 1991 and Q1 2015 by employing the event study methodology and by using two indices as benchmarks (BCI and S&P GSCI). We employ an EGARCH model to take into account the high volatility of oil prices and some stylized facts characterizing this volatility. We find that the impact of OPEC’s announcements on oil prices (i)evolves over time and among decisions, (ii) is more significant for production cut and maintain, (iii) is different for WTI and Brent prices, and (iv) is sensitive to the benchmark index. Moreover, OPEC’s decisions depend on the exploration and extraction cost of more expensive/unconventional oil resources. - Highlights: • The impact of OPEC's production decisions on both BRENT and WTI is examined. • We adopt the event study methodology. • An EGARCH model is used to capture some features characterizing oil prices volatility. • OPEC decisions effect changes over time and depends on production decisions and oil prices. • OPEC is less influential when prices are high and unconventional resources are viable.

  16. Chaotic structure of oil prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bildirici, Melike; Sonustun, Fulya Ozaksoy

    2018-01-01

    The fluctuations in oil prices are very complicated and therefore, it is unable to predict its effects on economies. For modelling complex system of oil prices, linear economic models are not sufficient and efficient tools. Thus, in recent years, economists attached great attention to non-linear structure of oil prices. For analyzing this relationship, GARCH types of models were used in some papers. Distinctively from the other papers, in this study, we aimed to analyze chaotic pattern of oil prices. Thus, it was used the Lyapunov Exponents and Hennon Map to determine chaotic behavior of oil prices for the selected time period.

  17. Rate of biodegradation of crude oil by microorganisms isolated from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The rate of biodegradation of crude oil by micro-organisms isolated from crude oil sludge environment in Eket, Akwa Ibom State of Nigeria was studied. Mineral salt medium supplemented with crude oil was used and three most abundant species isolated from a crude oil sludged soil - Micrococcus varians, Bacillus subtilis ...

  18. The economic impact of oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krymm, R.

    1974-01-01

    During the last three months of 1973, the tax-paid costs of typical grades of crude petroleum in the main producing areas of the world, around the Persian Gulf, were roughly quadrupled, rising for typical Iranian and Arabian Ugh t crudes from about $1.85 per barrel in September 1973 to more than $7.00 by 1 January 1974, or from approximately $13.30 to more than $50.00 per ton. Since the cost of production represents an insignificantly small fraction of the new cost level (less than 2%) and subject to complex adjustments reflecting varying qualities of crude oils and advantages of geographical location, the producing countries may expect to receive a minimum average revenue of $50.00 per ton of crude oil produced on their territory instead of $12.50. If we ignore the purchases which carried the prices of relatively small amounts of oil to the $100-$150 range, this figure of $50.00 per ton with future adjustments for inflation represents a probable guide line for future cost estimates. The change affects exports of close to 1.4 billion tons of oil and consequently involves an immediate shift of financial resources of close to 60 billion dollars per year from the oil-consuming to the oil-producing countries. Tables 1, 2 and 3 give an idea of the distribution of this burden by main geographical regions and of its possible evolution over the next seven years. The figures involved are so large that comparisons have been made by some authors with the reparations proposals advanced by the Allies at the end of the First World War. It has been pointed out that the market price of a typical quality of crude such as Arabian light had in fact fallen from $1.93 per barrel in 1955 to $1.26 in 1970. When the intervening industrial price inflation is taken into account this means that the price of oil had in fact been divided by 3 during a period when oil consumption was growing at an annual rate of more than 7% and oil was displacing coal as the major fuel of the world. During the

  19. Oil price uncertainty in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elder, John [Department of Finance and Real Estate, 1272 Campus Delivery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (United States); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2009-11-15

    Bernanke [Bernanke, Ben S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1983), 85-106.] shows how uncertainty about energy prices may induce optimizing firms to postpone investment decisions, thereby leading to a decline in aggregate output. Elder and Serletis [Elder, John and Serletis, Apostolos. Oil price uncertainty.] find empirical evidence that uncertainty about oil prices has tended to depress investment in the United States. In this paper we assess the robustness of these results by investigating the effects of oil price uncertainty in Canada. Our results are remarkably similar to existing results for the United States, providing additional evidence that uncertainty about oil prices may provide another explanation for why the sharp oil price declines of 1985 failed to produce rapid output growth. Impulse-response analysis suggests that uncertainty about oil prices may tend to reinforce the negative response of output to positive oil shocks. (author)

  20. The determinants of oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelier, J-P.

    1991-01-01

    In recent years, swings in oil prices have been of unprecendented severity and frequency. Three factors work together to determine the price of oil: in the short term, the balance between supply and demand; in the medium term, the structure of the oil industry; and in the long term, the marginal production cost consistent with world oil demand. An oil price forecast is presented based on these considerations, and it is predicted that in the year 2000, oil prices will not be significantly different from those of today. 28 refs

  1. The economic consequences of rising oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lescaroux, F.

    2006-05-01

    In the context of rising crude oil prices observed in the last five years, this paper attempts to shed light on the possible consequences of a costlier barrel. We shall begin with a brief presentation of the main results of the analyses conducted in the last 30 years, concerning the impact of energy prices on economic activity. We shall then interpret these analyses and their conclusions, and try to draw a number of lessons about the anticipated effects of the recent trend in energy prices. (author)

  2. Pengaruh Penambahan Kosubstrat pada Biodegradasi Crude Oil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Any Juliani

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Kegiatan penambangan minyak bumi tidak hanya dilakukan oleh perusahaan-perusahaan besar, tetapi juga oleh masyarakat secara tradisional. Potensi pencemaran lingkungan yang ditimbulkan oleh kegiatan penambangan rakyat ini menjadi lebih tinggi karena pengelolaannya yang tradisional. Salah satu jenis pencemaran yang ditimbulkannya misalnya adalah tanah atau perairan yang tercemar oleh minyak bumi (crude oil pada saat berlangsungnya kegiatan penambangan. Salah satu upaya untuk dapat mengatasinya adalah dengan bioremediasi. Bioremediasi merupakan teknologi pengolahan pencemar dengan memanfaatkan aktivitas mikroba, terutama dari golongan bakteri. Bioremediasi tersebut harus melibatkan bakteri yang memiliki kapasitas metabolic untuk melakukan biodegradasi terhadap crude oil tersebut. Crude oil sendiri pada dasarnya merupakan senyawa hidrokarbon yang merupakan sumber karbon yang kaya bagi mikroba. Namun demikian, biodegradasi crude oil relative lebih sulit dilakukan karena karakteristiknya yang merupakan senyawa dengan berat molekul dan ukuran yang besar. Oleh karena itu penambahan kosubstrat yang lebih sederhana dapat dilakukan untuk membantu biodegradasi terutama pada tahap awal proses. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh penambahan kosubstrat dalam hal ini glukosa terhadap biodegradasi crude oil. Penelitian dilakukan dalam media cair dengan bioaugmentasi melalui penambahan inoculum bakteri yang diisolasi dari tanah yang dikondisikan terhadap crude oil dalam beberapa variasi reactor. Indikasi terjadinya biodegradasi diperiksa melalui pengukuran terhadap parameter Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon (TPH dan Total Plate Count (TPC. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penambahan kosubstrat glukosa memberikan pengaruh positif terhadap penurunan TPH. Penurunan TPH tertinggi setelah 28 hari adalah sebesar 25,3 % yang diberikan oleh reactor dengan penambahan kosubstrat serta konsentrasi crude oil awal sebesar 8.1 %. Sementara itu reactor tanpa

  3. Comparative toxicology of four crude oils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clarke, L.M.; Hodson, P.V. [Queen' s Univ., Kingston, ON (Canada). Dept. of Biology; Brown, R.S. [Queen' s Univ., Kingston, ON (Canada). Dept. of Chemistry

    2003-07-01

    Fish that are chronically exposed to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) exhibit dioxin-like toxicity characterized by blue sac disease and the induction of cytochrome P4501A (CYP1A). This study compared the relative toxicity of four crude oils (Scotian Shelf, MESA, the synthetic Alberta Sweet Mixed Blend, and Alaskan North Slope Crude Oil), in causing the disease in rainbow trout embryos living in simulated spawning beds with hydrocarbon-contaminated gravel. Each oil had different chemical characteristics and PAH concentrations. The study confirmed the assumption that the Alberta Sweet Mixed Blend would be the most toxic due to its high PAH concentration. The results suggest that the main cause of toxicity in crude oil is due to the presence, concentration, and conformation of specific PAHs.

  4. Oil markets and prices: the Brent market and the formation of world oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horsnell, Paul; Mabro, Robert.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this book is to enhance our understanding of the complex working of the world petroleum market and of the formation of oil prices in international trade. It devotes particular attention to the Brent market which involves spot, physical forward and futures trading of a blend of North Sea crudes known as Brent which has become one of the most important markers for world oil prices. Because the Brent market is central the research presented here examines its relationship to the constellation of other oil markets: those which deal on a spot basis with the main export crude of Africa, the Gulf, the Far East and the North Sea, the market for Dubai, another marker crude, and that for West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Finally an analysis of pricing mechanisms used by OPEC and many non-OPEC exporting countries for their oil sales under term contracts and which use Brent prices as one of their references complete this study on oil markets and prices. (author)

  5. Sensitivity of stock market indices to oil prices: Evidence from manufacturing sub-sectors in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eksi Halil Ibrahim

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil price is a critical cost factor for manufacturing industries that are of vital importance for economic growth. This study examines the relationship between crude oil prices and the indices of seven Turkish manufacturing sub-sectors over the period 1997:01-2009:12. The error correction model results reveal the long term causality from crude oil prices to chemical petroleum-plastic and basic metal sub-sectors indicating that these sub-sectors are highly sensitive to crude oil prices. We find no causal relationship for other sector indices for short or long time periods.

  6. Coals to Newcastle: Will Alberta become a crude oil importer?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haessel, W.; Foley, D.J.

    1991-01-01

    The security of markets for Canadian heavy crude oil (HCO) under different conditions is examined. The emphasis of the study is on the conditions under which bitumen blend from Alberta could penetrate certain markets that have generally been identified as potential prospects. A secondary question concerns the cost reductions in bitumen production and upgrading that would be needed for bitumen blend and synthetic crude oil (SCO) to penetrate these same markets if long-term oil prices settle at US$18/bbl for Saudi light delivered to the USA Gulf Coast in 2010. A brief overview is first presented of some of the world and US factors that will affect the demand for Canadian HCO, with specific reference to the demand in the northern USA in 2010. The determination of the volume of HCO that can or will be processed at a refinery or a combination of refineries in a given market is then discussed. The cost and volume numbers for 2010 as provided in the National Energy Board's latest Canadian energy supply and demand forecast are used in the analysis. It is concluded that all traditional markets outside of the Canadian prairies could be lost if world oil prices stay below US$18/bbl for extended periods. At prices below US$17/bbl, bitumen producers would have trouble competing with imported crude oils in Edmonton unless bitumen production costs decline from current levels. The potential for bitumen production costs to decline enough for diluted bitumen to compete with US$18/bbl oil is better than the prospect for SCO costs to decrease enough to compete in eastern Canada or the northern USA at those price levels. 9 figs., 8 tabs

  7. Assessment of Antioxidant Indices after incorporating Crude Oil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    Exposure to crude oil pollution leads to the formation ... vitamin/mineral mixture (5 %). The food ..... hepatic antioxidant enzymes against cadmium induced liver ... Interaction of crude oil with alpha-tocopherol: ... Essential oil from Monodora.

  8. Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between crude oil market and Chinese ten sector stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Liansheng; Zhu, Yingming; Wang, Yudong; Wang, Yiqi

    2016-11-01

    Based on the daily price data of spot prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and ten CSI300 sector indices in China, we apply multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method to investigate the cross-correlations between crude oil and Chinese sector stock markets. We find that the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and energy sector stock market is the highest, followed by the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and financial sector market, which reflects a close connection between energy and financial market. Then we do vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to capture the interdependencies among the multiple time series. By comparing the strength of multifractality for original data and residual errors of VAR model, we get a conclusion that vector auto-regression (VAR) model could not be used to describe the dynamics of the cross-correlations between WTI crude oil and the ten sector stock markets.

  9. Wavelet-based prediction of oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yousefi, Shahriar; Weinreich, Ilona; Reinarz, Dominik

    2005-01-01

    This paper illustrates an application of wavelets as a possible vehicle for investigating the issue of market efficiency in futures markets for oil. The paper provides a short introduction to the wavelets and a few interesting wavelet-based contributions in economics and finance are briefly reviewed. A wavelet-based prediction procedure is introduced and market data on crude oil is used to provide forecasts over different forecasting horizons. The results are compared with data from futures markets for oil and the relative performance of this procedure is used to investigate whether futures markets are efficiently priced

  10. Biogeochemistry of anaerobic crude oil biodegradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Head, Ian; Gray, Neil; Aitken, Caroline; Sherry, Angela; Jones, Martin; Larter, Stephen

    2010-05-01

    Anaerobic degradation of crude oil and petroleum hydrocarbons is widely recognized as a globally significant process both in the formation of the world's vast heavy oil deposits and for the dissipation of hydrocarbon pollution in anoxic contaminated environments. Comparative analysis of crude oil biodegradation under methanogenic and sulfate-reducing conditions has revealed differences not only in the patterns of compound class removal but also in the microbial communities responsible. Under methanogenic conditions syntrophic associations dominated by bacteria from the Syntropheaceae are prevalent and these are likely key players in the initial anaerobic degradation of crude oil alkanes to intermediates such as hydrogen and acetate. Syntrophic acetate oxidation plays an important role in these systems and often results in methanogenesis dominated by CO2 reduction by members of the Methanomicrobiales. By contrast the bacterial communities from sulfate-reducing crude oil-degrading systems were more diverse and no single taxon dominated the oil-degrading sulfate-reducing systems. All five proteobacterial subdivisions were represented with Delta- and Gammaproteobacteria being detected most consistently. In sediments which were pasteurized hydrocarbon degradation continued at a relatively low rate. Nevertheless, alkylsuccinates characteristic of anaerobic hydrocarbon degradation accumulated to high concentrations. This suggested that the sediments harbour heat resistant, possibly spore-forming alkane degrading sulfate-reducers. This is particularly interesting since it has been proposed recently, that spore-forming sulfate-reducing bacteria found in cold arctic sediments may have originated from seepage of geofluids from deep subsurface hydrocarbon reservoirs.

  11. Waxy crude oil flow restart ability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sierra, Andre Gaona; Varges, Priscilla Ribeiro; Mendes, Paulo Roberto de Souza [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering. Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], e-mails: prvarges@puc-rio.br, pmendes@puc-rio.br; Ziglio, Claudio [PETROBRAS S.A, R.J., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: ziglio@petrobras.com.br

    2010-07-01

    Under the hot reservoir conditions, waxy crudes behave like Newtonian fluids but once they experience very cold temperatures on the sea floor, the heavy paraffin's begin to precipitate from the solution impacting non- Newtonian flow behavior to the crude (Chang 2000, Lee 2009, Davidson 2004) and begin to deposit on the pipe wall leave blocked of pipeline. This gel cannot be broken with the original steady state flow operating pressure applied before gelation (Chang 1998). Restarting waxy crude oil flows in pipelines is a difficult issue because of the complex rheological behavior of the gelled oil. Indeed, below the WAT, the gelled oil exhibits viscoplastic, thixotropic, temperature-dependent, and compressible properties due to the interlocking gel-like structure formed by the crystallized paraffin compounds and the thermal shrinkage of the oil. The main objective of this work is to determine the minimal pressure to restart the flow, and the relationship between the fluid rheology , pipe geometry and the restart pressure of the flow. Experiments will be performed to investigate the displacement of carbopol aqueous solutions (viscoplastic fluid without thixotropic effects) by Newtonian oil flowing through a strait pipe to validate the experimental apparatus. Therefore, tests will be made with different fluids, like Laponite and waxy crude oils. (author)

  12. The impact of oil price on Malaysian sector indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Luan, Yeap Pei; Ee, Ong Joo

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, vector error correction model (VECM) has been utilized to model the dynamic relationships between world crude oil price and the sector indices of Malaysia. The sector indices have been collected are covering the period Jan 1998 to Dec 2013. Surprisingly, our investigations show that oil price changes do not Granger-cause any of the sectors in all of Malaysia. However, sector indices of Food Producer and Utilities are found to be the cause of the changes in world crude oil prices. Furthermore, from the results of variance decomposition, very high percentage of shocks is explained by world crude oil price itself over the 12 months and small impact from other sector indices.

  13. Geotechnical properties of crude oil contaminated sand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puri, V.K.; Das, B.M.; Cook, E.E.; Shin, E.C.

    1994-01-01

    Contamination of soil due to an oil spill influences its subsequent engineering behavior. An investigation was conducted to study the effect of crude oil contamination on compaction characteristics, shear strength, one-dimensional compression, and coefficient of permeability. Water permeability was also determined by using commercial grade motor oils as contaminants. The test results indicate that the compaction characteristics are influenced by oil contamination. The angle of internal friction of sand (based on total stress condition) decreases due to presence of oil within the pore spaces in sand. One dimensional compression characteristics of sand are significantly influenced by oil contamination resulting in a decrease in the value of constrained modulus with increase in the degree of oil contamination compared to the case of dry sand. Water permeability was observed to be a function of the initial viscosity and the degree of saturation due to the contaminating oil

  14. Do food and oil prices co-move?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reboredo, Juan C.

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies co-movements between world oil prices and global prices for corn, soybean and wheat using copulas. Several copula models with different conditional dependence structures and time-varying dependence parameters were considered. Empirical results for weekly data from January 1998 to April 2011 showed weak oil-food dependence and no extreme market dependence between oil and food prices. These results support the neutrality of agricultural commodity markets to the effects of changes in oil prices and non-contagion between the crude oil and agricultural markets. However, dependence increased significantly in the last three years of the sampling period, even though upper tail dependence remained insignificant, indicating that food price spikes are not caused by positive extreme oil price changes. These results have implications for policy design, risk management and hedging strategies. - Highlights: ► We study co-movement between food and oil markets through copulas. ► Food prices are neutral to the effects of changes in oil prices. ► Oil price spikes had no causal effect on agricultural price spikes. ► Oil–corn and oil–soybean dependence increased in recent years. ► Food subsidy policies and price controls are unnecessary to avoid extreme oil prices.

  15. Chemical composition of Pechora Sea crude oil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derkach S. R.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The physicochemical properties of the Pechora Sea shelf oil and its chemical composition have been studied using the methods of refractometry, titrimetry, viscometry, rheometry and standard methods for the analysis of oil and petroleum products. The fractionation of oil is held at atmospheric pressure, some fractions boiling at the temperature below and above 211 °C have been received. Chemical structural-group composition of oil and its components has been investigated using a Fourier infrared (IR spectroscopy method. The density of oil has been obtained, it is equal to 24.2 API. The chemical composition analysis shows that water content in the investigated oil sample is about 0.03 % (by weight. The oil sample contains hydrocarbons (including alkanes, naphthenes, arenes and asphaltenes with resins; their content is equal to 89 and 10 % (by weight respectively. Alkane content is about 66 %, including alkanes of normal structure – about 37 %. The solidification temperature of oil sample is equal to –43 °C. This low temperature testifies obliquely low content of solid alkanes (paraffin. Bearing in mind the content of asphaltenes with resins we can refer the investigated oil sample to resinous oils. On the other hand spectral coefficient values (aromaticity quotient and aliphaticity quotient show that oil sample belongs to naphthenic oils. According to the data of Fourier IR spectroscopy contents of naphthenes and arenes are 5.9 and 17.8 % respectively. Thus, the obtained data of chemical structural-group composition of crude oil and its fractions indicate that this oil belongs to the heavy resinous naphthenic oils. The rheological parameters obtained at the shear deformation conditions characterize the crude oil as a visco-plastic medium.

  16. The future for heavy crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horsnell, P.

    1995-01-01

    The expectation, still held in 1993, that the light oil-heavy crude oil differential would go on increasing in favour of light oil has not been fulfilled. Current perceptions are that heavy oil will continue to be relatively strong and there is no inevitable upward trend in light-heavy crude differentials. Non-OPEC production has grown significantly lighter overall in recent years and is likely to continue so for several more years. This is due to expanded light oil production in the North Sea, Latin America and the Far East, and contractions in heavy oil production in Russia and the USA. OPEC production has also become lighter with, in particular, an expansion in light oil and contraction in heavy grades from Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the nature of the demand from refineries has changed with the introduction of new units designed to process the residium from heavy oil distillation. Thus the supply of light oil has expanded while demand for it has contracted with the reverse being true for heavy oil. (2 figures, 1 table) (UK)

  17. Oil price volatility and the asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radchenko, S.

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effect of volatility in oil prices on the degree of asymmetry in the response of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases. Several time series measures of the asymmetry between the responses of gasoline prices to oil price increases and decreases and several measures of the oil price volatility are constructed. In all models, the degree of asymmetry in gasoline prices declines with an increase in oil price volatility. The results support the oligopolistic coordination theory as a likely explanation of the observed asymmetry and are not consistent with the standard search theory and the search theory with Bayesian updating. (author)

  18. World oil prices and domestic implications : a Russian perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khartukov, E.M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presented an analysis of the impact of world oil prices on the future developments of Russia's oil sector and provided an international comparison of projected crude oil prices. The main factors that influence the price dynamics of the contemporary world oil market were described with reference to how these dynamics affect Russia's internal markets. World oil prices are determined by a mixture of politics and economics. The author suggested that Russian crude will not reach the desired parity with world oil prices. It was predicted that at the very best, by 2030, domestic crude oil sales will be 80 per cent of world-market proceeds. Russian refineries will enjoy cheaper feedstock. Regardless of future world price levels, the standstill in modernizing Russia's refining sector will further narrow the profit base, causing a massive run of Russian crude to more lucrative, external markets. It was emphasized that the survival of Russia's refining sector can only be guaranteed by radical upgrading of their outdated refineries. 4 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs

  19. Crude oil and stock markets. Stability, instability, and bubbles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, J. Isaac; Ratti, Ronald A.

    2009-01-01

    We analyze the long-run relationship between the world price of crude oil and international stock markets over 1971:1-2008:3 using a cointegrated vector error correction model with additional regressors. Allowing for endogenously identified breaks in the cointegrating and error correction matrices, we find evidence for breaks after 1980:5, 1988:1, and 1999:9. There is a clear long-run relationship between these series for six OECD countries for 1971:1-1980.5 and 1988:2-1999.9, suggesting that stock market indices respond negatively to increases in the oil price in the long run. During 1980.6-1988.1, we find relationships that are not statistically significantly different from either zero or from the relationships of the previous period. The expected negative long-run relationship appears to disintegrate after 1999.9. This finding supports a conjecture of change in the relationship between real oil price and real stock prices in the last decade compared to earlier years, which may suggest the presence of several stock market bubbles and/or oil price bubbles since the turn of the century. (author)

  20. Refining crude oils and gasolines, etc

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1931-11-23

    A process of refining crude oils and gasolines distilled from shale and the like is described, consisting of submitting them to a prewash with soda, an oxidation preferably with hypochlorite solution, a hydrogenation with nascent hydrogen, and finally rectification and neutralization.

  1. Factors affecting future crude oil production in South East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baugh, M.A.

    1996-01-01

    In the face of booming regional demand, crude oil production in the South East Asian region will decline from a 1996 peak of 5.7 million barrels a day to 3.5 million barrels a day in 2005 unless major new exploration investments are undertaken. The current fiscal terms for such investment will not attract continued significant funds to the region given the low crude price outlook, tough competitive global environment for the upstream industry, and the emergence of more attractive fiscal terms in politically and commercially stable countries with proven prospectivity. There is evidence from the emerging trend toward fiscal terms softening and differentiation around risk in some countries, that the commercial reality is becoming accepted. It remains to be seen if the various national political, bureaucratic and industry constituencies guiding these decisions within the region can respond decisively to mitigate the growing crude import dependency. (author). 2 tabs

  2. Oil price and food price volatility dynamics: The case of Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ijeoma C. Nwoko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the long and short run relationships between oil price and food price volatility as well as the causal link between them. The study used annual food price volatility index from FAO from 2000 to 2013 and crude oil price from U.S. Energy Information and Administration (EIA from 2000 to 2013. The Johansen and Jesulius co-integration test revealed that there is a long run relationship between oil price and domestic food price volatility. The vector error correction model indicated a positive and significant short run relationship between oil price and food price volatility. The Granger causality test revealed a unidirectional causality with causality running from oil price to food price volatility but not vice versa. It is recommended that policies and interventions that will help reduce uncertainty about food prices such as improved market information, trade policies and investment in research and development among others should be encouraged. Also to reduce the effect of oil price shock, it is recommended that government should subsidise pump price of refined oil, seek alternative sources of energy and there should be less dependence on oil for fertilizer production.

  3. Leadership Strategies for Maintaining Profitability in a Volatile Crude Oil Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braimoh, Lucky Anderson

    Volatile crude oil prices significantly affect the profitability of crude oil firms. The purpose of this single case study was to explore strategies some crude oil and gas business leaders used to remain profitable during periods of crude oil price volatility. The target population comprised 8 crude oil and gas business leaders located in Calgary, Canada, whose company remained profitable despite crude oil price volatility. The transformational leadership theory formed the conceptual framework for the study. Data were collected through the use of semistructured face-to-face interviews, company reports, and field notes. Data analysis involved a modified Van Kamm method, which included descriptive coding, a sequential review of the interview transcripts, and member checking. Based on methodological triangulation and thematic analysis, 5 themes emerged from the study, including communication and engagement; motivation and empowerment; measurement, monitoring, and control; self-awareness and humility; and efficiency and optimization. The implications for social change include the potential for crude oil and gas companies in Calgary, Canada to manage production costs, ensure earnings and profitability, and thus improve the socioeconomic well-being of Calgary indigenes through improved employment opportunities.

  4. Effect of oil price on Nigeria’s food price volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ijeoma C. Nwoko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effect of oil price on the volatility of food price in Nigeria. It specifically considers the long-run, short-run, and causal relationship between these variables. Annual data on oil price and individual prices of maize, rice, sorghum, soya beans, and wheat spanning from 2000 to 2013 were used. The price volatility for each crop was obtained using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedascity (GARCH (1, 1 model. Our measure of oil price is the Refiner acquisition cost of imported crude oil. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillip–Perron unit root tests show that all the variables are integrated of order one, I (1. Therefore, we use the Johansen co-integration test to examine the long-run relationship. Our results show that there is no long-run relationship between oil price and any of the individual food price volatility. Thus, we implement a VAR instead of a VECM to investigate the short-run relationship. The VAR model result revealed a positive and significant short-run relationship between oil price and each of the selected food price volatility with exception of that of rice and wheat price volatility. These results were further confirmed by the impulse response functions. The Granger causality test result indicates a unidirectional causality from oil price to maize, soya bean, and sorghum price volatilities but does not show such relationship for rice and wheat price volatilities. We draw some policy implications of these findings.

  5. After the oil price collapse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohl, W.L.

    1991-01-01

    In this book, the authors focus on issues that include the extremely high prices following the second oil shock, the resulting decline in oil demand and the increase in non-OPEC production, reduced industry concentration, OPEC's subsequent attempt to regain market share; and the resulting free-for-all of competitive pricing

  6. Oil price and the dollar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coudert, V.; Mignon, V.; Penot, A.

    2007-01-01

    Oil prices and the United States (US) dollar exchange rate are driving the evolution of the world economy. This paper investigated long-term relationships between oil prices and the US effective exchange rate. An empirical study was performed on oil prices and the dollar real effective exchange rate between 1974 to 2004. The impact of the dollar exchange rate was also explored, and the effects of oil prices on supply and demand were considered. A dynamic partial equilibrium framework study was evaluated in order to compare how other countries used revenues from oil exports in dollars. The study showed that both variables had similar evolutions when price fluctuations were low. Strong increases in the dollar were associated with lower oil prices. However, adjustment speeds of the dollar real effective exchange rate was slow. Co-integration and causality tests showed that oil prices influenced the exchange rate, and that the link between the 2 variables was transmitted through the country's net foreign asset position. It was concluded that higher oil prices improved US net foreign asset position in relation to other countries, and had a positive impact on dollar appreciation. 24 refs., 6 tabs., 1 fig

  7. Compositional modification of crude oil during oil recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Yangming; Weng, Huanxin [Department of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027 (China); Chen, Zulin; Chen, Qi [Petroleum Geochemistry Research Center, Jianghan Petroleum University, Jingzhou, Hubei (China)

    2003-05-01

    Ten crude oils from two recovery stages spanning 5-10-year interval of five productive wells in the Tarim Basin, northwest China were analyzed for their compositional modification during production process. Significant compositional changes in polar and nonpolar fractions between the previous oil samples and the latter ones were noted at both bulk and molecular level. The latter oil samples appear to contain more aromatic fraction and less asphaltenes and resin, and their gas chromatography (GC) data for whole oil show reduced alkanes with low molecular weight and enhanced high homologue relative to the previous oil samples. Compared with the oils collected from the previous recovery stage, the concentration of basic type of nitrogen-containing compounds and organic acids in oils from the latter recovery stage have a reducing trend, suggesting the occurrence of interaction between crude oil and reservoir rock.

  8. A MODEL FOR DIFFUSION CONTROLLED BIOAVAILABILITY OF CRUDE OIL COMPONENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crude oil is a complex mixture of several different structural classes of compounds including alkanes, aromatics, heterocyclic polar compounds, and asphaltenes. The rate and extent of microbial degradation of crude oil depends on the interaction between the physical and biochemi...

  9. Characterization of CRUDE OILS and petroleum products: (i) elution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Characterization of CRUDE OILS and petroleum products: (i) elution liquid chromatographic separation and gas chromatographic analysis of crude oils and petroleum products. E.O. Odebunmi, E.A. Ogunsakin, P.E.P. Ilukhor ...

  10. Assessment of the relationship between oil prices and US oil stocks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saif Ghouri, Salman [Business Environment Section, Corporate Planning Department, Qatar Petroleum, Doha (Qatar)]. E-mail: ghouri@qp.com.qa

    2006-11-15

    This paper qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the relationship between US monthly ending oil stocks position with that of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices from February 1995 to July 2004. The paper concludes if other things are held constant, WTI is inversely related to the petroleum products (PPP), combined petroleum products and crude oil (CPPP), crude oil alone (Crude), total oil stocks including petroleum products, crude oil and strategic petroleum reserves SPR (Total), total gasoline (TGO), total distillate (TDO). It could not establish a statistically significant and negative relationship with SPR when run alone. One percent increase (decrease) in CPPP, PPP, Crude, Total, TGO and TDO leads to decrease (increase) in WTI, respectively, by 0.70, 0.43, 0.37, 0.97, 0.26 and 0.21 percent. Oil prices are largely influenced by total crude and Crude and PPP inventories levels while modestly with variations in gasoline and distillate stocks levels. Despite a healthy increase of over 22 percent in SPR from January 2001 to April 2004, it did not result in easing of oil prices. Primarily because SPR are meant for security of supply concern and are only released under extreme conditions by the President of United States, they are neither meant for the purposes of balancing supply-demand gap nor for the stability of oil prices. The aggressive SPR buildup in recent years is related to international terrorism, geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq, that encourages US government to enhance its SPR to meet any short-term eventuality. The analyst must keep a close eye on CPPP and the total oil stocks variation to forecast WTI in the short run whilst gasoline and distillate influence oil prices modestly in the short run. SPR, on the other hand, are expected to play a pivotal role in balancing oil prices and in providing a critical resource for the economy in case of any major shortfall in the long run.

  11. Assessment of the relationship between oil prices and US oil stocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saif Ghouri, Salman

    2006-01-01

    This paper qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the relationship between US monthly ending oil stocks position with that of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices from February 1995 to July 2004. The paper concludes if other things are held constant, WTI is inversely related to the petroleum products (PPP), combined petroleum products and crude oil (CPPP), crude oil alone (Crude), total oil stocks including petroleum products, crude oil and strategic petroleum reserves SPR (Total), total gasoline (TGO), total distillate (TDO). It could not establish a statistically significant and negative relationship with SPR when run alone. One percent increase (decrease) in CPPP, PPP, Crude, Total, TGO and TDO leads to decrease (increase) in WTI, respectively, by 0.70, 0.43, 0.37, 0.97, 0.26 and 0.21 percent. Oil prices are largely influenced by total crude and Crude and PPP inventories levels while modestly with variations in gasoline and distillate stocks levels. Despite a healthy increase of over 22 percent in SPR from January 2001 to April 2004, it did not result in easing of oil prices. Primarily because SPR are meant for security of supply concern and are only released under extreme conditions by the President of United States, they are neither meant for the purposes of balancing supply-demand gap nor for the stability of oil prices. The aggressive SPR buildup in recent years is related to international terrorism, geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq, that encourages US government to enhance its SPR to meet any short-term eventuality. The analyst must keep a close eye on CPPP and the total oil stocks variation to forecast WTI in the short run whilst gasoline and distillate influence oil prices modestly in the short run. SPR, on the other hand, are expected to play a pivotal role in balancing oil prices and in providing a critical resource for the economy in case of any major shortfall in the long run

  12. A Study on the efficient alleviation of domestic oil price at international oil crisis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Young Ku [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-01-01

    For alleviating domestic oil price when the international oil crisis happens, the government has been reacted directly such as using stored oil or alleviation fund. Although the release of stored oil works for short-term depending on the type of crisis, concerning that most of oil crisis had been resulted in temporary supply reduction rather than long-term supply suspension, utilizing the domestic alleviation fund is regarded more economical than storing oil. However, it has been suggested to compare efficiencies of alleviation fund and a futures market regarding the perspectives that using alleviation fund is more inefficient than utilizing a futures market. Moreover, the direct management by government is less efficient than indirect management. As an efficient way to alleviate domestic oil price at international oil crisis, this study presents an effective utilization of trading in futures of crude oil. There is a high probability of occurrence of this kind of oil crisis by judging from the world political situation and the trend of oil market. In such a case, the government as a crude oil importer should minimize the stored oil and utilize a futures market effectively. The subject of alleviating oil price by trading in futures is an oil supplier, such as oil refining companies or oil importers not the government as a prerequisite. Furthermore, the government should approve to include appropriate cost for preparing oil price alleviation in the oil price and it is required that such a government policy should be consistent. (author). 41 refs., 3 figs., 15 Tabs.

  13. Near-term oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, M.C.

    2001-01-01

    This PowerPoint presentation included 36 slides that described the state of oil prices and how to predict them. Prices are random, stochastic, chaotic, mean-reverting and driven by speculators, oil companies and OPEC. The many factors that enable price forecasting are economic growth, weather, industry behaviour, speculators, OPEC policy choices, Mexico/Russia production policy, non-OPEC supply and the interpretation of the above factors by OPEC, speculators, traders and the petroleum industry. Several graphs were included depicting such things as WTI price forecasts, differentials, oil market change in 2001, inventory levels, and WTI backwardation. The presentation provided some explanations for price uncertainties, price surges and collapses. U.S. GDP growth and the volatility of Iraq's production was also depicted. The author predicted that economic growth will occur and that oil demand will go up. Oil prices will fluctuate as the Middle East will be politically unstable and weather will be a major factor that will influence oil prices. The prices are likely to be more volatile than in the 1986 to 1995 period. 2 tabs., 22 figs

  14. Factors affecting world and Russian domestic oil prices: the domestic implications - a Russian perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khartukov, E.M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper modestly aims at answering two formally related but unnecessarily interconnected questions about international and Russian domestic pricing of crude oil. The first of them is what, in our opinion, chiefly determines price dynamics of the contemporary world oil market. And the second one is in which way (if at all) world oil price dynamics affect Russia's internal market. (author)

  15. Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Sheng-Tung; Kuo, Hsiao-I; Chen, Chi-Chung

    2010-01-01

    The growth of corn-based ethanol production and soybean-based bio-diesel production following the increase in the oil prices have significantly affect the world agricultural grain productions and its prices. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships between the crude oil price and the global grain prices for corn, soybean, and wheat. The empirical results show that the change in each grain price is significantly influenced by the changes in the crude oil price and other grain prices during the period extending from the 3rd week in 2005 to the 20th week in 2008 which implies that grain commodities are competing with the derived demand for bio-fuels by using soybean or corn to produce ethanol or bio-diesel during the period of higher crude oil prices in these recent years. The subsidy policies in relation to the bio-fuel industries in some nations engaging in bio-fuel production should be considered to avoid the consequences resulting from high oil prices. (author)

  16. Short-term outlook for Canadian crude oil to 2006 : an energy market assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-09-01

    The National Energy Board monitors the supply of all energy commodities in Canada along with the demand for Canadian energy commodities in domestic and export markets. This report is intended to expand the effectiveness of the Board's monitoring activities by providing an assessment of the current state of the petroleum industry and the potential for growth. It provides an 18-month outlook on international and domestic crude oil prices; drilling and exploration activity; supply projections for Canadian crude oil and petroleum products; Canada's crude oil trade balance and markets for Canadian crude; existing export pipeline networks and project expansion plans; and, the Canadian petroleum products industry and the impact of higher prices. It also identifies the major issues and challenges associated with the development of Canada's crude oil. The 2 major oil producing areas in Canada are the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) including the oil sands, and offshore eastern Canada. While conventional production in the WCSB is declining, development focus has shifted to Alberta's oil sands as well as Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose, the 3 major oil fields offshore Newfoundland and Labrador. High energy prices have resulted in record profits for the Canadian oil and gas industry, and has stimulated billions of dollars in investment, with Alberta's oil sands being the main beneficiary. The 19 refineries in Canada have been operating at about 90 per cent capacity for the last several years due to strong demand for transportation fuels. 10 tabs., 37 figs., 2 appendices

  17. Heavy oils processing materials requirements crude processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sloley, Andrew W. [CH2M Hill, Englewood, CO (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Over time, recommended best practices for crude unit materials selection have evolved to accommodate new operating requirements, feed qualities, and product qualities. The shift to heavier oil processing is one of the major changes in crude feed quality occurring over the last 20 years. The three major types of crude unit corrosion include sulfidation attack, naphthenic acid attack, and corrosion resulting from hydrolyzable chlorides. Heavy oils processing makes all three areas worse. Heavy oils have higher sulfur content; higher naphthenic acid content; and are more difficult to desalt, leading to higher chloride corrosion rates. Materials selection involves two major criteria, meeting required safety standards, and optimizing economics of the overall plant. Proper materials selection is only one component of a plant integrity approach. Materials selection cannot eliminate all corrosion. Proper materials selection requires appropriate support from other elements of an integrity protection program. The elements of integrity preservation include: materials selection (type and corrosion allowance); management limits on operating conditions allowed; feed quality control; chemical additives for corrosion reduction; and preventive maintenance and inspection (PMI). The following discussion must be taken in the context of the application of required supporting work in all the other areas. Within that context, specific materials recommendations are made to minimize corrosion due to the most common causes in the crude unit. (author)

  18. Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

    2015-02-01

    Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.

  19. A metric and topological analysis of determinism in the crude oil spot market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barkoulas, John T.; Chakraborty, Atreya; Ouandlous, Arav

    2012-01-01

    We test whether the spot price of crude oil is determined by stochastic rules or exhibits deterministic endogenous fluctuations. In our analysis, we employ both metric (correlation dimension and Lyapunov exponents) and topological (recurrence plots) diagnostic tools for chaotic dynamics. We find that the underlying system for crude oil spot prices (i) is of high dimensionality (no stabilization of the correlation dimension), (ii) does not exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and (iii) is not characterized by the recurrence property. Thus, the empirical evidence suggests that stochastic rather than deterministic rules are present in the system dynamics of the crude oil spot market. Recurrent plot analysis indicates that volatility clustering is an adequate, but not complete, explanation of the morphology of oil spot prices. - Highlights: ► We test whether the spot price of crude oil exhibits deterministic chaos. ► We employ both metric and topological diagnostic tools for chaos. ► Stochastic rules appear to govern the temporal evolution of oil prices. ► Volatility clustering explains the morphology of oil prices largely, but not entirely.

  20. Tariff Impact on the Domestic Price of Vegetable Oil in Iran and the Associated Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    omid gilanpour

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This study uses vector error correction model to examine the effects of oilseeds, crude oil and vegetable oil tariffs on vegetable oil consumer price. Monthly data sets for the years 2004-2013 and VAR and VECM models were applied for this study. Research findings indicates only a long term equilibrium relation between the study variables .The effect of vegetable oil tariffs on consumer and producer price index are 0.4 and 0.07, respectively. Furthermore, one percent increase in the oil seeds and crude oil tariff, will increase consumer prices by 2.35, 0.19percent. The huge gap between the impacts of the two tariffs –e.g. oilseeds and crude oil tariffs- on consumer price shows that oil industries work with low efficiency. This practically doubles the impact of tariff on consumers. Accordingly, structural reform in the oil industry can develop oil production and prevent additional burden upon the consumer price.

  1. Forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murat, Atilim; Tokat, Ekin

    2009-01-01

    In oil markets, the crack spread refers to the crude-product price relationship. Refiners are major participants in oil markets and they are primarily exposed to the crack spread. In other words, refiner activity is substantially driven by the objective of protecting the crack spread. Moreover, oil consumers are active participants in the oil hedging market and they are frequently exposed to the crack spread. From another perspective, hedge funds are heavily using crack spread to speculate in oil markets. Based on the high volume of crack spread futures trading in oil markets, the question we want to raise is whether the crack spread futures can be a good predictor of oil price movements. We investigated first whether there is a causal relationship between the crack spread futures and the spot oil markets in a vector error correction framework. We found the causal impact of crack spread futures on spot oil market both in the long- and the short-run after April 2003 where we detected a structural break in the model. To examine the forecasting performance, we use the random walk model (RWM) as a benchmark, and we also evaluate the forecasting power of crack spread futures against the crude oil futures. The results showed that (a) both the crack spread futures and the crude oil futures outperformed the RWM; and (b) the crack spread futures are almost as good as the crude oil futures in predicting the movements in spot oil markets. (author)

  2. Volatility persistence in crude oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charles, Amélie; Darné, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Financial market participants and policy-makers can benefit from a better understanding of how shocks can affect volatility over time. This study assesses the impact of structural changes and outliers on volatility persistence of three crude oil markets – Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – between January 2, 1985 and June 17, 2011. We identify outliers using a new semi-parametric test based on conditional heteroscedasticity models. These large shocks can be associated with particular event patterns, such as the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, the Operation Desert Storm, the Operation Desert Fox, and the Global Financial Crisis as well as OPEC announcements on production reduction or US announcements on crude inventories. We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of the equation governing volatility dynamics; (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models (GARCH, IGARCH, FIGARCH and HYGARCH); and (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility, and thus the estimation of the persistence of the volatility. Therefore, taking into account the outliers on the volatility modelling process may improve the understanding of volatility in crude oil markets. - Highlights: • We study the impact of outliers on volatility persistence of crude oil markets. • We identify outliers and patches of outliers due to specific events. • We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of GARCH models, (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models, (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility of crude oil markets

  3. Import demand of crude oil and economic growth. Evidence from India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Sajal

    2009-01-01

    This study establishes a long-run equilibrium relationship among quantity of crude oil import, income and price of the imported crude in India for the time span 1970-1971 to 2005-2006 using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration. Empirical results show that the long-term income elasticity of imported crude in India is 1.97 and there exists a unidirectional long-run causality running from economic growth to crude oil import. So reduction of crude oil import will not affect the future economic growth in India in the long-run. India should take various energy efficiency and demand side management measures in transport sector along with other measures like expanding and strengthening indigenous resource-base, substituting imported fuels by domestic fuels and de-controlling the price of petroleum products to reduce its import dependence. (author)

  4. Bioremediation of crude oil contaminated tea plantation soil using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Crude oil contamination of soil is a major concern for tea industry in Assam, India. Crude oil is a persistent organic contaminant which alters soil physical and biochemical characteristics and makes tea plants more susceptible against crude oil contamination. Therefore, two native bacterial strains designated as AS 03 and ...

  5. Wax deposition in crude oil pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Assuncao, Pablo Morelato; Rodrigues, Lorennzo Marrochi Nolding [Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo, Sao Mateus, ES (Brazil). Centro Universitario Norte do Espirito Santo. Engenharia de Petroleo; Romero, Mao Ilich [University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States). Enhanced Oil Recovery Institute], e-mail: mromerov@uwyo.edu

    2010-07-01

    Crude oil is a complex mixture of hydrocarbons which consists of aromatics, paraffins, naphthenics, resins asphaltenes, etc. When the temperature of crude oil is reduced, the heavy components, like paraffin, will precipitate and deposit on the pipe internal wall in the form of a wax-oil gel. The gel deposit consists of wax crystals that trap some amount of oil. As the temperature gets cooler, more wax will precipitate and the thickness of the wax gel will increase, causing gradual solidification of the crude and eventually the oil stop moving inside the offshore pipeline. Crude oil may not be able to be re-mobilized during re-startup. The effective diameter will be reduced with wax deposition, resulting in several problems, for example, higher pressure drop which means additional pumping energy costs, poor oil quality, use of chemical components like precipitation inhibitors or flowing facilitators, equipment failure, risk of leakage, clogging of the ducts and process equipment. Wax deposition problems can become so sever that the whole pipeline can be completely blocked. It would cost millions of dollars to remediate an offshore pipeline that is blocked by wax. Wax solubility decreases drastically with decreasing temperature. At low temperatures, as encountered in deep water production, is easy to wax precipitate. The highest temperature below which the paraffins begins to precipitate as wax crystals is defined as wax appearance temperature (WAT). Deposition process is a complex free surface problem involving thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, mass and heat transfer. In this work, a numerical analysis of wax deposition by molecular diffusion and shear dispersion mechanisms in crude oil pipeline is studied. Diffusion flux of wax toward the wall is estimated by Fick's law of diffusion, in similar way the shear dispersion; wax concentration gradient at the solid-liquid interface is obtained by the volume fraction conservation equation; and since the wax deposition

  6. Mideast crisis and pricing in the oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamed, A.H.

    1992-01-01

    Futures prices and the corresponding expected future cash price on crude oil markets differ. The difference is hypothesized to be due to a time varying risk premium where risk is due to either cash price volatility, oil output volatility, or unanticipated oil price movement. And this risk is measured by the conditional variance of the forementioned sources of risk. Using the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heterosckdasticity) model and its extensions this study addresses the determination of the time varying risk premium. Political unrest in the Mideast oil exporting countries is hypothesized to be a determinant of the time varying risk premium in the oil futures market. The empirical tests allow informative inferences to be drawn on the role of political unrest in pricing oil

  7. How much crude oil can zooplankton ingest? Estimating the quantity of dispersed crude oil defecated by planktonic copepods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Almeda, Rodrigo; Connelly, Tara L.; Buskey, Edward J.

    2016-01-01

    % of the analyzed fecal pellets from three species of copepods and a natural copepod assemblage exposed for 48 h to physically or chemically dispersed light crude oil contained crude oil droplets. Crude oil droplets inside fecal pellets were smaller (median diameter: 2.4-3.5 mu m) than droplets in the physically...

  8. Volatility spillover between crude oil and exchange rate: A copula-CARR approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, Y. J.; Guo, M. Y.

    2017-11-01

    Oil provides a powerful impetus for modern society's production and life. The influences of oil price fluctuations on socio-economic development are obvious, and it draws more attention from scholars. However, the distribution of oil is highly centralized, which leads to the vast majority of oil trading through foreign trade. As a result, exchange rate plays an important role in the oil business. Study on the relationship between exchange rate and crude oil gradually becomes a hot research topic in recent years. In this paper, we use copula and CARR model to study correlation structure and relationship between crude oil price and exchange rate. We establish CARR models as marginal models and use five copulas which are Gaussian Copula, Student-t Copula, Gumbel Copula, Clayton Copula and Frank Copula to study the correlation structure between NYMEX crude oil price range and U. S. Dollar Index range. Furthermore, we use Copula-CARR model with structural breaks to detect the change points in the correlation structure between NYMEX crude oil price range and U. S. Dollar Index range. Empirical results show that the change points are closely related to the actual economic events.

  9. Tanker spills Norwegian crude oil off Shetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reports that crude oil was spilling last week from the U.S. owned Braer tanker after the 89,000 dwt vessel ran aground on the south end of Scotland's Shetland Islands. Workers were trying to assess the extent of damage to the tanker, shoreline, and wildlife after the January 5 accident. Braer's cargo amounted to 607,000 bbl of Norwegian oil bound for Canada. Braer loaded its cargo and sailed January 3 from Den norske stats oljeselskap AS's Mongstad, Norway, terminal with crude from Gullfaks field in the Norwegian North Sea. The $11 million shipment was destined for Ultramar Canada Inc.'s 125,000 b/d refinery at St. Romuald, Que

  10. Volatility spillovers in China’s crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haixia, Wu; Shiping, Li

    2013-01-01

    Price volatility spillovers among China’s crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets are analyzed based on weekly price data from September 5, 2003 to August 31, 2012, employing the univariate EGARCH model and the BEKK-MVGARCH model, respectively. The empirical results indicate a higher interaction among crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets after September, 2008. In the overall sample period, the results simultaneously provide strong evidence that there exist unidirectional spillover effects from the crude oil market to the corn and fuel ethanol markets, and double-directional spillovers between the corn market and the fuel ethanol market. However, the spillover effects from the corn and fuel ethanol markets to the crude oil market are not significant. -- Highlights: •Employing univariate EGARCH model and BEKK-MVGARCH model, respectively. Unidirectional spillover effects from crude oil market to corn and fuel ethanol markets. •Double-directional spillovers between corn market and fuel ethanol market. •The spillover effects from corn and fuel ethanol markets to crude oil market are not significant. •The empirical results indicate a higher interaction among crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets after September, 2008

  11. Oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henriques, Irene; Sadorsky, Perry

    2008-01-01

    Energy security issues coupled with increased concern over the natural environment are driving factors behind oil price movements. While it is widely accepted that rising oil prices are good for the financial performance of alternative energy companies, there has been relatively little statistical work done to measure just how sensitive the financial performance of alternative energy companies are to changes in oil prices. In this paper, a four variable vector autoregression model is developed and estimated in order to investigate the empirical relationship between alternative energy stock prices, technology stock prices, oil prices, and interest rates. Our results show technology stock prices and oil prices each individually Granger cause the stock prices of alternative energy companies. Simulation results show that a shock to technology stock prices has a larger impact on alternative energy stock prices than does a shock to oil prices. These results should be of use to investors, managers and policy makers. (author)

  12. Pilot scale refinning of crude soybean oil | Mensah | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Pilot scale refinning of crude soybean oil. ... Abstract. A laboratory process for refining soybean has been scaled up to a 145 tonne per annum pilot plant to refine crude soybean oil. ... The quality of the refined oil was found to be within national and codex standard specifications for edible oil from vegetable sources.

  13. Three essays in corporate finance: Examining the influence of government ownership and evaluating crude oil arbitrage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Kateryna

    The aim of this dissertation is twofold: first, to evaluate how governments influence firms in which they invest (chapters one and two), and second, to examine arbitrage in the crude oil market by investigating the relationship between crude oil inventories, physical prices, and financial prices (chapter three). In the first chapter (The Wealth Effects of Government Investment in Publicly Traded Firms), I study how government share ownership affects shareholder wealth. I find that government investments with higher likelihood of political interference have a negative influence on shareholder wealth, while the opposite is true for government investments with economic objectives. In the second chapter (Government Ownership and the Cost of Debt: Evidence form Government Investment in Publicly Traded Firms), I investigate how government share ownership affects the cost of debt of publicly traded firms. I find that government ownership generally leads to a higher cost of debt, except for times of economic and firm distress, when the value of the implicit government guarantee is associated with a reduction in the cost of debt. In the third chapter (Financial Trading, Spot Oil Prices, and Inventory: Evidence from the U.S. Crude Oil Market), I confirm the existence of an active cash and carry market in crude oil in Cushing, OK, the main U.S. crude oil futures settlement location. In other words, crude oil inventories in Cushing, but not in any other U.S. crude oil storage locations, are explained by the spread between the financial and the physical price of oil in addition to operational factors.

  14. Forecasting volatility and spillovers in crude oil spot, forward and future markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

  15. Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers and Asymmetries in Major Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

  16. The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luis, J.B.

    2001-01-01

    The futures price can be seen as the sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price and a risk-premium. In order to disentangle these two components of the futures price, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk-premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk-aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively, from observed option and spot prices. looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate light/sweet crude oil options, the obtained evidence suggests that risk-aversion is typically very low for levels near the futures prices. However, due to price volatility and, consequently, to the tails of distribution, the risk-aversion functions are badly behaved in extreme prices and futures prices do not anticipate sharp movements in oil spot prices. Therefore, futures oil prices seem to be useful in forecasting spot prices only when moderate price changes occur. (author)

  17. Crude oil market efficiency and modeling. Insights from the multiscaling autocorrelation pattern

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Alvarez, Jesus; Solis, Ricardo

    2010-01-01

    Empirical research on market inefficiencies focuses on the detection of autocorrelations in price time series. In the case of crude oil markets, statistical support is claimed for weak efficiency over a wide range of time-scales. However, the results are still controversial since theoretical arguments point to deviations from efficiency as prices tend to revert towards an equilibrium path. This paper studies the efficiency of crude oil markets by using lagged detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to detect delay effects in price autocorrelations quantified in terms of a multiscaling Hurst exponent (i.e., autocorrelations are dependent of the time scale). Results based on spot price data for the period 1986-2009 indicate important deviations from efficiency associated to lagged autocorrelations, so imposing the random walk for crude oil prices has pronounced costs for forecasting. Evidences in favor of price reversion to a continuously evolving mean underscores the importance of adequately incorporating delay effects and multiscaling behavior in the modeling of crude oil price dynamics. (author)

  18. Crude oil market efficiency and modeling. Insights from the multiscaling autocorrelation pattern

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose [Departamento de Ingenieria de Procesos e Hidraulica, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Departamento de Economia, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Alvarez, Jesus [Departamento de Ingenieria de Procesos e Hidraulica, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico); Solis, Ricardo [Departamento de Economia, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Apartado Postal 55-534, Mexico D.F., 09340 (Mexico)

    2010-09-15

    Empirical research on market inefficiencies focuses on the detection of autocorrelations in price time series. In the case of crude oil markets, statistical support is claimed for weak efficiency over a wide range of time-scales. However, the results are still controversial since theoretical arguments point to deviations from efficiency as prices tend to revert towards an equilibrium path. This paper studies the efficiency of crude oil markets by using lagged detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to detect delay effects in price autocorrelations quantified in terms of a multiscaling Hurst exponent (i.e., autocorrelations are dependent of the time scale). Results based on spot price data for the period 1986-2009 indicate important deviations from efficiency associated to lagged autocorrelations, so imposing the random walk for crude oil prices has pronounced costs for forecasting. Evidences in favor of price reversion to a continuously evolving mean underscores the importance of adequately incorporating delay effects and multiscaling behavior in the modeling of crude oil price dynamics. (author)

  19. Electrical desalting - preparing of the crude oil for further processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asadi, Nadija; Minovski, Mino; Sokolovski, Aleksandar

    1999-01-01

    Desalting as well as dewatering of the crude oil is important preparing process, which takes place in crude units on the refinery plants. One of the most efficient ways of desalting is use of high voltage electricity. In this work attention is paid on the principals of this process, illustrated with practically gained results from the OKTA Crude Oil Refinery in Macedonia. (Original)

  20. Bioavailability of chemically-dispersed crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, B.C.; Bonner, J.S.; McDonald, T.J.; Fuller, C.B.; Page, C.A.; Dimitriou-Christidis, P.; Sterling, M.C.; Autenrieth, R.L.

    2002-01-01

    Oil spills can be treated with surfactant compounds to disperse them. This method enables the hydrophobic compounds to overcome their repulsion for water, enter the water phase and be diluted. Once in the water, the biodegradation fraction of the oil biodegrades over time and the residual fraction is deposited over a large area. One major issue which is not fully understood is whether oil compounds pass through the water phase to free floating cells or directly enter oil-attached microbial cells from the oil particle. In this study, crude oil was placed in a swirling flask with Corpus Christi Bay water and was then chemically dispersed with Corexit 9500. The biodegradation was then monitored and assessed. First order rate coefficients were determined based on the disappearance of specific compounds. The rate coefficients for total target PAHs were consistent for all tests. Napthalene, phenanthrene, dibenzothiophene and their alkylated homologs were among the target compounds. The trend was also observed for total target analytes and for total target saturates. The results indicate that the biodegradation rate coefficient was not dependent on the bulk concentration of oil in the water column. It was concluded that biodegradation rates was controlled by partitioning of the compounds between the two phases, and other factors such as particle size distribution and the capability of the microbial culture, temperature and nutrients. 13 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs

  1. Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals. Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Ullman, Ben

    2009-01-01

    A consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question, where do innovations in oil prices enter the market? Here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from North America, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East on both spot and futures markets. Results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for Dubai-Fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for West Texas Intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts. Links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long-run relationship between spot and future prices to change after September 2004. Together, these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long-term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators, who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time. (author)

  2. Oil Prices and Venezuela's Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Mark Weisbrot; Rebecca Ray

    2008-01-01

    This paper looks at Venezuela’s export revenue, imports, and trade and current account balances under a range of oil price outcomes for the next two years. It finds that Venezuela would run large current account surpluses for prices between $60-90 per barrel, and would even run a small surplus with prices at $50 per barrel. (Most oil industry estimates for the next two years are in the range of $80-90 per barrel). The authors conclude that Venezuela is unlikely to run into foreign exchange co...

  3. Testing market efficiency of crude palm oil futures to European participants

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xing

    2009-01-01

    Palm oil is the most consumed and traded vegetable oils in the EU and the world. Increasing non-food uses for vegetable oils in especially feedstock of biofuels in recent years have caused the price volatility to rise in both EU and global market. The most efficient pricing of crude palm oil (CPO) is to found on Bursa Malaysia (BMD), and it provides by far the world’s most liquid palm oil contract. The goal of this study is to investigate CPO futures market efficiency of BMD for the European ...

  4. Eastern Canadian crude oil supply and its implications for regional energy security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, Larry

    2010-01-01

    Canada has been blessed with immense energy resources; however, their distribution is not uniform. One such example is crude oil, which is found primarily in western Canada. Eastern Canada, consisting of the six eastern-most provinces (Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Quebec), produce limited quantities of crude oil, most of which is exported to the United States. Ideally, western Canadian crude oil would meet the demands of eastern Canada; however, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the absence of oil pipelines means that eastern Canada increasingly relies on supplies of crude oil from a small number of oil exporting countries, many with declining production. This paper examines crude oil production, supply, and its refining in eastern Canada. It shows that crude production in the region has reached its peak and that increasing global competition for crude oil will affect energy security in eastern Canada, either through price increases or supply shortages, or both. (author)

  5. Oil price scenarios and refining profitability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sweeney, B.

    1993-01-01

    Currently refining profitability is low because there has been an overbuilding of conversion capacity in Western Europe in the last round. Oil marketing, the chemicals business and the fundamental economy itself are at low points in their cycles which have not coincided, at least in the UK, since 1975. Against that gloomy background, it is predicted that downstream profitability will recover in the mid-1990s. Crude oil prices will remain low until the call on OPEC crude increases again and takes up the capacity which has been brought on stream in response to the Gulf War. When this happens, it is likely to trigger another price spike and another round of investment in production capacity. Environmentally driven investments in desulphurisation or emissions reduction will be poorly remunerated all the way through the value chain. Refining margins will recover when white oil demand growth tightens up the need for conversion capacity. Marketing will need to reduce the retail network overcapacity in the mature markets if it is to improve its profitability. In this period of low profitability, even with the light at the end of the tunnel for refiners in the middle of the decade, the industry structure is under threat. There is a strong argument for new modes of competitive behaviour which are backed by strong elements of cooperation. (author)

  6. Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth in Nigeria: a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edesiri Godsday Okoro

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The study examined oil price volatility and economic growth in Nigeria linking oil price volatility, crude oil prices, oil revenue and Gross Domestic Product. Using quarterly data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN Statistical Bulletin and World Bank Indicators (various issues spanning 1980-2010, a non‐linear model of oil price volatility and economic growth was estimated using the VAR technique. The study revealed that oil price volatility has significantly influenced the level of economic growth in Nigeria although; the result additionally indicated a negative relationship between the oil price volatility and the level of economic growth. Furthermore, the result also showed that the Nigerian economy survived on crude oil, to such extent that the country‘s budget is tied to particular price of crude oil. This is not a good sign for a developing economy, more so that the country relies almost entirely on revenue of the oil sector as a source of foreign exchange earnings. This therefore portends some dangers for the economic survival of Nigeria. It was recommended amongst others that there should be a strong need for policy makers to focus on policy that will strengthen/stabilize the economy with specific focus on alternative sources of government revenue. Finally, there should be reduction in monetization of crude oil receipts (fiscal discipline, aggressive saving of proceeds from oil booms in future in order to withstand vicissitudes of oil price volatility in future.

  7. DOE/DOT Crude Oil Characterization Research Study, Task 2 Test Report on Evaluating Crude Oil Sampling and Analysis Methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lord, David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Allen, Ray [Allen Energy Services, Inc., Longview, TX (United States); Rudeen, David [GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-11-01

    The Crude Oil Characterization Research Study is designed to evaluate whether crude oils currently transported in North America, including those produced from "tight" formations, exhibit physical or chemical properties that are distinct from conventional crudes, and how these properties associate with combustion hazards with may be realized during transportation and handling.

  8. Two-tier crude pricing in flux: U.S. postings phenomenon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In recent time, US crude oil buyers have invented a means by which the difference between their posted offered buying prices to sellers and the futures market are reduced. Purpose: reduce the bonuses paid to buyers when the futures price soars above the current market price. The problem is that the bonus amount was calculated above the posted price of just one company. Some companies, nervous about possible inferences concerning proper free competition, are dropping the practice. This issue also presents the following: (1) the ED Refining Netback Data Series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore as of March 27, 1992; and (2) the ED Fuel Price/Tax Series for countries of the Eastern Hemisphere, March 1992 Edition

  9. Improving oil biodegradability of aliphatic crude oil fraction by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The percentage of biodegrading ability of B. subtilis and the mixture of these bacteria to n-alkanes and isoprenoids (pristine, phytane) were measured and compared with control. Crude oil is used as a sole source of energy and the incubation period was 24 days, the hydrocarbons loss are detected each 6 day interval using ...

  10. Transient leak detection in crude oil pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beushausen, R.; Tornow, S.; Borchers, H. [Nord-West Oelleitung, Wilhelmshaven (Germany); Murphy, K.; Zhang, J. [Atmos International Ltd., Manchester (United Kingdom)

    2004-07-01

    Nord-West Oelleitung (NWO) operates 2 crude oil pipelines from Wilhemshaven to Koln and Hamburg respectively. German regulations for transporting flammable substances stipulate that 2 independent continuously working procedures be used to detect leaks. Leak detection pigs are used routinely to complement the surveillance system. This paper described the specific issues of transient leak detection in crude oil pipelines. It was noted that traditional methods have failed to detect leaks that occur immediately after pumps are turned on or off because the pressure wave generated by the transient dominates the pressure wave that results from the leak. Frequent operational changes in a pipeline are often accompanied by an increased number of false alarms and failure to detect leaks due to unsteady operations. NWO therefore decided to have the Atmos statistical pipeline leak detection (SPLD) system installed on their pipelines. The key to the SPLD system is the sequential probability ratio test. Comprehensive data validation is performed following reception of pipeline data from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. The validated data is then used to calculate the corrected flow imbalance, which is fed into the SPRT to determine if there is an increase in the flow imbalance. Pattern recognition is then used to distinguish a leak from operational changes. The SPLD is unique because it uses 3 computational pipeline monitoring methods simultaneously, namely modified volume balance, statistical analysis, and pressure and flow monitoring. The successful installation and testing of the SPLD in 2 crude oil pipelines was described along with the main difficulties associated with transient leaks. Field results were presented for both steady-state and transient conditions. 5 refs., 2 tabs., 16 figs.

  11. Crude oil import policy of Turkey: Historical analysis of determinants and implications since 1968

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ediger, Volkan S., E-mail: volkanediger@gmail.co [Izmir University of Economics, Sakarya Caddesi, No. 156, 35330 Izmir (Turkey); Berk, Istemi [Izmir University of Economics, Sakarya Caddesi, No. 156, 35330 Izmir (Turkey)

    2011-04-15

    Turkey is one of the most energy import dependent countries in the world, suffering deeply from the economic and strategic burdens of oil importation. Our purpose is to determine the factors behind the crude oil import policy of Turkey and to measure their contribution to a well-organized import strategy. We implemented a principle component analysis to construct an Oil Import Vulnerability Index (OIVI) based on four factors, which are crude oil import dependency of primary energy consumption, crude oil import bill as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), non-diversification of import sources, and share of oil in total energy import. The contribution of these factors to the OIVI is found to be approximately equal. While an overall deterioration in the OIVI has been observed during periods of increasing oil prices, better diversification of oil import sources has lead to significant improvements. We suggest Turkish policy-makers implement sound policies, emphasizing diversification of crude oil import sources and reduction of the share of crude oil in primary energy imports to increase energy supply security. This study has also demonstrated that it is possible to construct an index representing crude oil vulnerability caused by import dependency. - Research highlights: {yields}We examine the factors lying behind the crude oil import policy of Turkey. {yields} We measure the contribution of each factor to a well-organized import strategy. {yields} We constrtuct an Oil Import Vulnerability Index using principle component analysis. {yields} We suggest that four factors affect oil import policies with almost equal weights. {yields} Source diversification is found to be the core issue in oil import policies.

  12. Crude oil import policy of Turkey: Historical analysis of determinants and implications since 1968

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ediger, Volkan S.; Berk, Istemi

    2011-01-01

    Turkey is one of the most energy import dependent countries in the world, suffering deeply from the economic and strategic burdens of oil importation. Our purpose is to determine the factors behind the crude oil import policy of Turkey and to measure their contribution to a well-organized import strategy. We implemented a principle component analysis to construct an Oil Import Vulnerability Index (OIVI) based on four factors, which are crude oil import dependency of primary energy consumption, crude oil import bill as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), non-diversification of import sources, and share of oil in total energy import. The contribution of these factors to the OIVI is found to be approximately equal. While an overall deterioration in the OIVI has been observed during periods of increasing oil prices, better diversification of oil import sources has lead to significant improvements. We suggest Turkish policy-makers implement sound policies, emphasizing diversification of crude oil import sources and reduction of the share of crude oil in primary energy imports to increase energy supply security. This study has also demonstrated that it is possible to construct an index representing crude oil vulnerability caused by import dependency. - Research highlights: →We examine the factors lying behind the crude oil import policy of Turkey. → We measure the contribution of each factor to a well-organized import strategy. → We constrtuct an Oil Import Vulnerability Index using principle component analysis. → We suggest that four factors affect oil import policies with almost equal weights. → Source diversification is found to be the core issue in oil import policies.

  13. Exporting Alaskan North Slope crude oil: Benefits and costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-06-01

    The Department of Energy study examines the effects of lifting the current prohibitions against the export of Alaskan North Slope (ANS) crude. The study concludes that permitting exports would benefit the US economy. First, lifting the ban would expand the markets in which ANS oil can be sold, thereby increasing its value. ANS oil producers, the States of California and Alaska, and some of their local governments all would benefit from increased revenues. Permitting exports also would generate new economic activity and employment in California and Alaska. The study concludes that these economic benefits would be achieved without increasing gasoline prices (either in California or in the nation as a whole). Lifting the export ban could have important implications for US maritime interests. The Merchant Marine Act of 1970 (known as the Jones Act) requires all inter-coastal shipments to be carried on vessels that are US-owned, US-crewed, and US-built. By limiting the shipment of ANS crude to US ports only, the export ban creates jobs for the seafarers and the builders of Jones Act vessels. Because the Jones Act does not apply to exports, however, lifting the ban without also changing US maritime law would jeopardize the jobs associated with the current fleet of Jones Act tankers. Therefore the report analyzes selected economic impacts of several maritime policy alternatives, including: Maintaining current law, which allows foreign tankers to carry oil where export is allowed; requiring exports of ANS crude to be carried on Jones Act vessels; and requiring exports of ANS crude to be carried on vessels that are US-owned and US-crewed, but not necessarily US-built. Under each of these options, lifting the export ban would generate economic benefits.

  14. Exporting Alaskan North Slope crude oil: Benefits and costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-06-01

    The Department of Energy study examines the effects of lifting the current prohibitions against the export of Alaskan North Slope (ANS) crude. The study concludes that permitting exports would benefit the US economy. First, lifting the ban would expand the markets in which ANS oil can be sold, thereby increasing its value. ANS oil producers, the States of California and Alaska, and some of their local governments all would benefit from increased revenues. Permitting exports also would generate new economic activity and employment in California and Alaska. The study concludes that these economic benefits would be achieved without increasing gasoline prices (either in California or in the nation as a whole). Lifting the export ban could have important implications for US maritime interests. The Merchant Marine Act of 1970 (known as the Jones Act) requires all inter-coastal shipments to be carried on vessels that are US-owned, US-crewed, and US-built. By limiting the shipment of ANS crude to US ports only, the export ban creates jobs for the seafarers and the builders of Jones Act vessels. Because the Jones Act does not apply to exports, however, lifting the ban without also changing US maritime law would jeopardize the jobs associated with the current fleet of Jones Act tankers. Therefore the report analyzes selected economic impacts of several maritime policy alternatives, including: Maintaining current law, which allows foreign tankers to carry oil where export is allowed; requiring exports of ANS crude to be carried on Jones Act vessels; and requiring exports of ANS crude to be carried on vessels that are US-owned and US-crewed, but not necessarily US-built. Under each of these options, lifting the export ban would generate economic benefits

  15. Vulnerability maps for Druzba crude oil pipeline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hladik, P.; Hosnedl, P.; Buresova, H.; Corbet, J.

    2012-01-01

    Maps of risk for individual environmental aspects within the protection zone of the Czech part of the Druzba crude oil pipeline (505.7 km) were developed based on a modified 'H and V index' method. Risk data were added into a GIS of the Druzba pipeline so that the system could be used as conceptual material in the field of environmental protection (a base for the new SCADA system). Considered environmental aspects were assessed in terms of their vulnerability. The criteria were defined as the vulnerability of the aquatic environment (surface waters and ground waters), the vulnerability of soil environment and the vulnerability of biotic components of the environment. (authors)

  16. Lifting the US crude oil export ban: A numerical partial equilibrium analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langer, Lissy; Huppmann, Daniel; Holz, Franziska

    2016-01-01

    The upheaval in global crude oil markets and the boom in shale oil production in North America brought scrutiny on the US export ban for crude oil from 1975. The ban was eventually lifted in early 2016. This paper examines the shifts of global trade flows and strategic refinery investments in a spatial, game-theoretic partial equilibrium model. We consider detailed oil supply chain infrastructure with multiple crude oil types, distinct oil products, as well as specific refinery configurations and modes of transport. Prices, quantities produced and consumed, as well as infrastructure and refining capacity investments are endogenous to the model. We compare two scenarios: an insulated US crude oil market, and a counter-factual with lifted export restrictions. We find a significant expansion of US sweet crude exports with the lift of the export ban. In the US refinery sector, more (imported) heavy sour crude is transformed. Countries importing US sweet crude gain from higher product output, while avoiding costly refinery investments. Producers of heavy sour crude (e.g. the Middle East) are incentivised to climb up the value chain to defend their market share and maintain their dominant position. - Highlights: • We study the impacts of lifting the US crude ban on global oil flows and investments. • We find massive expansion of US sweet crude oil exports. • We analyze the resulting welfare effects for US producers, refiners and consumers. • We indicate the changes on global trade patterns. • We conclude that lifting the ban is the right policy for the US and the global economy.

  17. Oil prices and financial stress: A volatility spillover analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazlioglu, Saban; Soytas, Ugur; Gupta, Rangan

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines whether there is a volatility transmission between oil prices and financial stress by means of the volatility spillover test. We employ WTI crude oil prices and Cleveland financial stress index for the period 1991–2014 and divide the sample into pre-crisis, in-crisis, and post-crisis periods due to the downward trend in oil price in 2008. The volatility model estimations indicate that oil prices and financial stress index are dominated by long-run volatility. The volatility spillover causality test supports evidence on risk transfer from oil prices to financial stress before the crisis and from financial stress to oil prices after the crisis. The impulse response analysis shows that the volatility transmission pattern has similar dynamics before and after the crisis and is characterized by higher and long-lived effects during the crisis. Our results have implications for both policy makers and investors, and for future work. -- Highlights: •Volatility spillover between oil prices and financial stress index is examined. •Analysis is conducted for sub-periods: pre-crisis, in-crisis, and post-crisis •Oil prices spill on financial stress before the crisis, but spillover reversed after the crisis. •Volatility transmission pattern has similar dynamics before and after the crisis. •Implications for investors and policy makers are discussed

  18. The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyler, Aidan [European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main (Germany)

    2009-11-15

    Crude and refined oil prices have been relatively high and volatile on a sustained basis since 1999. This paper considers the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid (i.e. petrol, diesel and heating) fuel prices in such an environment. The pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid fuel prices has already been addressed extensively in the literature. Nonetheless much of this literature has either focused on the United States or on a time period when oil prices were relatively stable, or has used monthly data. The main contribution of this paper is a comprehensive combination of many features that have been considered before but rarely jointly. These features include: (1) the analysis of the euro area as an aggregate and a large number of countries (the initial 12 member states); (2) the consideration of different time periods; (3) the modelling of the data in raw levels rather than in log levels. This turns out to have important implications for our findings; (4) the use of high frequency (weekly) data, which, as results will suggest, are the lowest frequency one should consider; (5) the investigation of the different stages of the production chain from crude oil prices to retail distribution - refining costs and margins, distribution and retailing costs and margins; (6) the examination of prices including and excluding taxes - excise and value-added; (7) the modelling of prices for three fuel types - passenger car petrol and diesel separately and home heating fuel oil; (8) lastly we also address the issue of possible asymmetries, allowing for the pass through to vary according to (a) whether price are increasing or decreasing and (b) whether price levels are above or below their equilibrium level. The main findings are as follows: First, as distribution and retailing costs and margins have been broadly stable on average, the modelling of the relationship between consumer prices excluding taxes and upstream prices in raw levels rather than in

  19. The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyler, Aidan

    2009-01-01

    Crude and refined oil prices have been relatively high and volatile on a sustained basis since 1999. This paper considers the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid (i.e. petrol, diesel and heating) fuel prices in such an environment. The pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid fuel prices has already been addressed extensively in the literature. Nonetheless much of this literature has either focused on the United States or on a time period when oil prices were relatively stable, or has used monthly data. The main contribution of this paper is a comprehensive combination of many features that have been considered before but rarely jointly. These features include: (1) the analysis of the euro area as an aggregate and a large number of countries (the initial 12 member states); (2) the consideration of different time periods; (3) the modelling of the data in raw levels rather than in log levels. This turns out to have important implications for our findings; (4) the use of high frequency (weekly) data, which, as results will suggest, are the lowest frequency one should consider; (5) the investigation of the different stages of the production chain from crude oil prices to retail distribution - refining costs and margins, distribution and retailing costs and margins; (6) the examination of prices including and excluding taxes - excise and value-added; (7) the modelling of prices for three fuel types - passenger car petrol and diesel separately and home heating fuel oil; (8) lastly we also address the issue of possible asymmetries, allowing for the pass through to vary according to (a) whether price are increasing or decreasing and (b) whether price levels are above or below their equilibrium level. The main findings are as follows: First, as distribution and retailing costs and margins have been broadly stable on average, the modelling of the relationship between consumer prices excluding taxes and upstream prices in raw levels rather than in

  20. Comparative study of biodegradation of crude oil in soil amended ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of soil samples treated with 10% (v/w) Escravos light crude oil and amended with chicken droppings and NPK fertilizer revealed that the aerobic heterotrophic bacterial counts were depressed while the proliferation of crude oil degrading bacteria (CDB) in the soil was encouraged. The counts of CDB in oil free ...

  1. Oil prices and economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.; Lescaroux, F.

    2006-01-01

    There is no limit to the sources of hydrocarbons (whether pumped out of the earth or produced in factories) for the next few decades, but there is and will be a need for increasingly complex and costly techniques as the usual sources of petroleum run out. Does this mean that prices will keep on rising? Probably, since environmental costs must be added onto direct costs. The mining of oil out of 'tar sands', for example, or the production of hydrocarbons by the chemical industry will have a significant impact owing to the emission of greenhouse gases. If prices do rise in the short or middle term, the cause will have to do more with the calendar of investments than with the availability of energy and its costs. In the long run however, price hikes are not all that certain. A few points for analyzing and predicting the macro-and micro-economic effects of fluctuating oil prices are discussed. (author)

  2. Cross-correlations between crude oil and exchange markets for selected oil rich economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianfeng; Lu, Xinsheng; Zhou, Ying

    2016-07-01

    Using multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA), this paper studies the cross-correlation behavior between crude oil market and five selected exchange rate markets. The dataset covers the period of January 1,1996-December 31,2014, and contains 4,633 observations for each of the series, including daily closing prices of crude oil, Australian Dollars, Canadian Dollars, Mexican Pesos, Russian Rubles, and South African Rand. Our empirical results obtained from cross-correlation statistic and cross-correlation coefficient have confirmed the existence of cross-correlations, and the MF-DCCA results have demonstrated a strong multifractality between cross-correlated crude oil market and exchange rate markets in both short term and long term. Using rolling window analysis, we have also found the persistent cross-correlations between the exchange rates and crude oil returns, and the cross-correlation scaling exponents exhibit volatility during some time periods due to its sensitivity to sudden events.

  3. Systemic toxicity of dermally applied crude oils in rats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feuston, M.H.; Mackerer, C.R.; Schreiner, C.A.; Hamilton, C.E. [Stonybrook Labs., Inc., Princeton, NJ (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Two crude oils, differing in viscosity (V) and nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) content, were evaluated for systemic toxicity, In the Crude I (low V, low N, low S) study, the material was applied to the clipped backs of rats at dose levels of 0, 30, 125, and 500 mg/kg. In the Crude II (high V, high N, moderate S) study, the oil was applied similarly at the same dose levels. The crude oils were applied for 13 wk, 5 d/wk. Exposure sites were not occluded. Mean body weight gain (wk 1-14) was significantly reduced in male rats exposed to Crude II; body weight gain of all other animals was not adversely affected by treatment. An increase in absolute (A) and relative (R) liver weights and a decrease in A and R thymus weights were observed in male and female rats exposed to Crude II at 500 mg/kg; only liver weights (A and R) were adversely affected in male and female rats exposed to Crude I. In general, there was no consistent pattern of toxicity for serum chemistry endpoints; however, more parameters were adversely affected in Crude II-exposed female rats than in the other exposed groups. A consistent pattern of toxicity for hematology endpoints was observed among male rats exposed to Crude I and male and female rats exposed to Crude II. Parameters affected included: Crudes I and II, red blood cell count, hemoglobin, and hematocrit, Crude II, platelet count. Microscopic evaluation of tissues revealed the following treatment-related findings: Crude I, treated skin, thymus, and thyroid; Crude II, bone marrow, treated skin, thymus, and thyroid. The LOEL (lowest observable effect level) for skin irritation and systemic toxicity (based on marginal effects on the thyroid) for both crude oils was 30 mg/kg; effects were more numerous and more pronounced in animals exposed to Crude II. Systemic effects are probably related to concentrations of polycyclic aromatic compounds (PAC) found in crude oil.

  4. Assessment of OPEC's oil pricing policy from 1970 to 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazim, A.

    2007-01-01

    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an international organization, composed of eleven developing countries that rely on oil revenues as their main source of income. The member countries include: Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. These member countries collectively supply approximately 40 per cent of the world's oil output, and possess more than three-quarters of the world's total proven crude oil reserves. Currently, OPEC's approximate rate of oil production and export is 25 million barrels per day with Saudi Arabia alone contributing about one third of this rate. However, in the recent years the economy of major OPEC countries mainly Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Algeria, Indonesia and Iran has been significantly hindered by the instability of oil price as a result of fluctuations in the American dollar. This paper presented a simple economical assessment of OPEC's oil pricing policy from 1970 to 2000. Fluctuations of the oil price in American dollars were analysed against other major currencies. Their influences on the generated revenues were determined. In order to explore the most advantageous scenario, the oil pricing policy during that period was compared with two baskets of currencies. It was concluded that results indicated that OPEC members could have achieved a total current savings of at least 170 billion dollars if the price of oil was linked to a basket of currencies from 1970 to 2000. These savings were approximately equivalent to the revenues generated in at least 1 year of OPEC's average rate of oil production and export. It was recommended that OPEC members should consider restructuring their oil pricing policy by taking effective measures such as linking the price of oil to a basket of currencies in order to stabilize the price of oil and secure stable revenue generated from their oil production and export. 17 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs

  5. Impact of Expanded North Slope of Alaska Crude Oil Production on Crude Oil Flows in the Contiguous United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, Sean E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Flanagan, Tatiana Paz [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    The National Transportation Fuels Model was used to simulate a hypothetical increase in North Slope of Alaska crude oil production. The results show that the magnitude of production utilized depends in part on the ability of crude oil and refined products infrastructure in the contiguous United States to absorb and adjust to the additional supply. Decisions about expanding North Slope production can use the National Transportation Fuels Model take into account the effects on crude oil flows in the contiguous United States.

  6. Economic Exposure to Oil Price Shocks and the Fragility of Oil-Exporting Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toon Vandyck

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available From a price range between 100 and 120 USD (U.S. dollars per barrel in 2011–2014, the crude oil price fell from mid-2014 onwards, reaching a level of 26 USD per barrel in January 2016. Here we assess the economic consequences of this strong decrease in the oil price. A retrospective analysis based on data of the past 25 years sheds light on the vulnerability of oil-producing regions to the oil price volatility. Gross domestic product (GDP and government revenues in many Gulf countries exhibit a strong dependence on oil, while more diversified economies improve resilience to oil price shocks. The lack of a sovereign wealth fund, in combination with limited oil reserves, makes parts of Sub-Saharan Africa particularly vulnerable to sustained periods of low oil prices. Next, we estimate the macroeconomic impacts of a 60% oil price drop for all regions in the world. A numerical simulation yields a global GDP increase of roughly 1% and illustrates how the regional impact on GDP relates to oil export dependence. Finally, we reflect on the broader implications (such as migration flows of macroeconomic responses to oil prices and look ahead to the challenge of structural change in a world committed to limiting global warming.

  7. World crude oil and natural gas. A demand and supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krichene, Noureddine

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918-1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies

  8. World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krichene, N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918-1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918-1973 and 1973-1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies. (author)

  9. Economic Analysis of Diesel-Fuel Replacement by Crude Palm Oil in Indonesian Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Procházka

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia needs to find an alternative fuel to substitute diesel in their power plants in order to reduce the use of nonrenewable energy sources. The Indonesian government has a target to reduce oil fuel consumption while improving the efficiency of energy utilization. Crude palm oil is proposed to be used for this substitution. In this paper, the authors conduct an economic analysis of the replacement of diesel by crude palm oil. To predict future prices, a time series analysis is conducted using AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average method. A financial analysis of a specific project (0.75-MW power plant is conducted using static financial indicators (payback period, return on investment. Results show that replacing diesel with crude palm oil may be profitable. This is especially true for the proposed prospects of diesel price evolution. Analysis shows that the price of crude oil, which is the main factor in the pricing of diesel, may go up. Also, recently Indonesian currency depreciated against the US dollar, which also implies a higher cost of diesel.

  10. The impacts of global oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiao; Zhang, Chuanguo

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigated the impacts of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries. In order to analyze the reactions of different industries to oil price shocks, we focused on four fundamental industries: grains, metals, petrochemicals and oil fats. We separated the oil price shocks into two parts, positive and negative parts, to investigate how commodity markets react when oil prices go up and down. We further studied the extreme price movements, called jumps, existing in the oil markets and how jump behavior has affected China's commodity markets. Our results suggest that asymmetric effects of oil price shocks did exist in the four markets and the negative oil price shocks had stronger influences on the four markets in China. The petrochemicals market suffered most from the oil price shocks, and the grains market was least sensitive to the shocks. When jumps occurred in the crude oil market, the four commodity markets would be affected differently. The oil fats market and petrochemicals market tended to “overreact” to jumps. - Highlights: • We investigate the impacts of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries. • Jump behavior does exist in the crude oil market. • The impacts of oil price shocks are asymmetric. • China's four commodity markets are affected by the jump behavior

  11. Jumps and stochastic volatility in oil prices: Time series evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsson, Karl; Nossman, Marcus

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we examine the empirical performance of affine jump diffusion models with stochastic volatility in a time series study of crude oil prices. We compare four different models and estimate them using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The support for a stochastic volatility model including jumps in both prices and volatility is strong and the model clearly outperforms the others in terms of a superior fit to data. Our estimation method allows us to obtain a detailed study of oil prices during two periods of extreme market stress included in our sample; the Gulf war and the recent financial crisis. We also address the economic significance of model choice in two option pricing applications. The implied volatilities generated by the different estimated models are compared and we price a real option to develop an oil field. Our findings indicate that model choice can have a material effect on the option values.

  12. To consume or not. How oil prices affect the comovement of consumption and aggregate wealth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odusami, Babatunde Olatunji

    2010-01-01

    This paper provides insight into how oil price movements affect the consumption choices of U.S. households through the wealth channel. Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) show that while consumption, asset wealth, and labor income share a common long-term trend; they substantially deviate from one another in the short run. In this paper, I show that these transitory deviations can be explained by fluctuations in the price of crude oil. Linear and threshold multivariate autoregressive models are used to measure the oil price effect. Oil price effect on the consumption to aggregate wealth ratio is robust to monetary policy effect, sub-period effect, and econometric specifications of oil price effect. Generally speaking, higher (lower) oil price will lead to a decrease (increase) in the proportion of aggregate wealth consumed. In addition, the magnitude of the oil price effect is asymmetric and sub-period dependent. Oil price effect was higher before the 1980's than in succeeding periods. (author)

  13. The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

    This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

  14. A catalogue of crude oil and oil product properties, 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bobra, M.A.; Callaghan, S.

    1990-09-01

    This catalogue is a compilation of available data on crude oils and petroleum products. The emphasis of the catalogue is upon oils which could potentially impact Canada's environment. Other oils which are unlikely to be of direct Canadian concern are also included because they have been well characterized and used in relevant studies. The properties listed for each oil are those which will provide an indication of a spilled oil's environmental behaviour and effects. The properties on which data is provided include API gravity, density, viscosity, interfacial tension, pour point, flash point, vapor pressure, volatility and component distribution, emulsion formation tendency and stability, weathering, dispersability, major hydrocarbon groups, aqueous solubility, toxicity, sulfur content, fire point, and wax content. Most of the chemical-physical properties listed in this catalogue were measured using standard tests. For certain properties, data are given at different temperatures and for different degrees of oil weathering. An oil's degree of weathering is expresed as the volume or weight percent evaporated from the fresh oil. Weathered oils used for testing were artificially weathered by gas stripping following the method of Mackay and Stiver. 109 refs

  15. A catalogue of crude oil and oil product properties, 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whiticar, S.; Bobra, M.; Liuzzo, P.; Callaghan, S.; Fingas, M.; Jokuty, P.; Ackerman, F.; Cao, J.

    1993-02-01

    This catalogue is a compilation of available data on crude oils and petroleum products. The emphasis of the catalogue is upon oils which could potentially impact Canada's environment. Other oils which are unlikely to be of direct Canadian concern are also included because they have been well characterized and used in relevant studies. The properties listed for each oil are those which will provide an indication of a spilled oil's environmental behaviour and effects. The properties on which data is provided include API gravity, density, viscosity, interfacial tension, pour point, flash point, vapor pressure, volatility and component distribution, emulsion formation tendency and stability, weathering, dispersability, major hydrocarbon groups, aqueous solubility, toxicity, sulfur content, fire point, and wax content. Most of the chemical-physical properties listed in this catalogue were measured using standard tests. For certain properties, data are given at different temperatures and for different degrees of oil weathering. An oil's degree of weathering is expresed as the volume or weight percent evaporated from the fresh oil. Weathered oils used for testing were artificially weathered by gas stripping following the method of Mackay and Stiver. 140 refs

  16. Alberta oil sands crudes : upgrading and marketing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ashar, M.

    2008-01-01

    Open pit mining and in situ techniques, such as steam stimulation, are used to recover Alberta's bitumen and heavy oil resources, which have higher viscosities than conventional hydrocarbons. The bitumen is typically upgraded to synthetic crude oil (SCO). In the simplest processing scheme, the bitumen is blended with diluent for ease in pipeline transport and then processed at refineries with upgrading facilities. The bitumen is also upgraded to light SCO at world-scale upgraders in Alberta. The SCO is then processed at refineries in downstream markets. The 2 categories of upgrading, notably primary and secondary upgrading, were described in this article along with technology options for both categories. Slurry hydrocracking is regarded as the most interesting emerging residual fuel upgrading technology. It combines special catalyst mixes with the latest slurry reactor designs as well as innovative catalyst capture and recycle schemes to produce very high conversions and potentially superior upgrading economics. The increase in volume and rate of SCO from Alberta provides refiners in the oil sands marketing sector an unprecedented choice of opportunities to improve profitability. Key trends indicate that production will increase substantially from 2008 to 2030. 5 figs

  17. Alberta oil sands crudes : upgrading and marketing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ashar, M. [Suncor Energy, Fort McMurray, AB (Canada)

    2008-05-15

    Open pit mining and in situ techniques, such as steam stimulation, are used to recover Alberta's bitumen and heavy oil resources, which have higher viscosities than conventional hydrocarbons. The bitumen is typically upgraded to synthetic crude oil (SCO). In the simplest processing scheme, the bitumen is blended with diluent for ease in pipeline transport and then processed at refineries with upgrading facilities. The bitumen is also upgraded to light SCO at world-scale upgraders in Alberta. The SCO is then processed at refineries in downstream markets. The 2 categories of upgrading, notably primary and secondary upgrading, were described in this article along with technology options for both categories. Slurry hydrocracking is regarded as the most interesting emerging residual fuel upgrading technology. It combines special catalyst mixes with the latest slurry reactor designs as well as innovative catalyst capture and recycle schemes to produce very high conversions and potentially superior upgrading economics. The increase in volume and rate of SCO from Alberta provides refiners in the oil sands marketing sector an unprecedented choice of opportunities to improve profitability. Key trends indicate that production will increase substantially from 2008 to 2030. 5 figs.

  18. Forecasting oil price trends using wavelets and hidden Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza e Silva, Edmundo G. de; Souza e Silva, Edmundo A. de; Legey, Luiz F.L.

    2010-01-01

    The crude oil price is influenced by a great number of factors, most of which interact in very complex ways. For this reason, forecasting it through a fundamentalist approach is a difficult task. An alternative is to use time series methodologies, with which the price's past behavior is conveniently analyzed, and used to predict future movements. In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of a nonlinear time series model, known as hidden Markov model (HMM), to predict future crude oil price movements. Using an HMM, we develop a forecasting methodology that consists of, basically, three steps. First, we employ wavelet analysis to remove high frequency price movements, which can be assumed as noise. Then, the HMM is used to forecast the probability distribution of the price return accumulated over the next F days. Finally, from this distribution, we infer future price trends. Our results indicate that the proposed methodology might be a useful decision support tool for agents participating in the crude oil market. (author)

  19. Process for removing heavy metal compounds from heavy crude oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cha, Chang Y.; Boysen, John E.; Branthaver, Jan F.

    1991-01-01

    A process is provided for removing heavy metal compounds from heavy crude oil by mixing the heavy crude oil with tar sand; preheating the mixture to a temperature of about 650.degree. F.; heating said mixture to up to 800.degree. F.; and separating tar sand from the light oils formed during said heating. The heavy metals removed from the heavy oils can be recovered from the spent sand for other uses.

  20. Effect of temperature on biodegradation of crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zekri, A.; Chaalal, O.

    2005-01-01

    An active strain of anaerobic thermophilic bacteria was isolated from the environment of the United Arab Emirates. This project studied the effect of temperature, salinity and oil concentration on biodegradation of crude oil. Oil weight loss, microbial growth and the changes of the crude oil asphaltene concentration are used to evaluate the oil degradation by this strain. A series of batch experiments was performed to study the effects of bacteria on the degradation of crude oil. The effects of oil concentration, bacteria concentration, temperature and salinity on the biodegradation were investigated. The temperatures of the studied systems were varied between 35 and 75 o C and the salt concentrations were varied between 0 and 10%. Oil concentrations were ranged from 5 to 50% by volume. Experimental work showed the bacteria employed in this project were capable of surviving the harsh environment and degrading the crude oil at various conditions. Increasing the temperature increases the rate of oil degradation by bacteria. Increasing the oil concentration in general decreases the rate of bacteria oil degradation. Salinity plays a major role on the acceleration of biodegradation process of crude oil. An optimum salinity should be determined for every studied system. The finding of this project could be used in either the treatment of oil spill or in-situ stimulation of heavy oil wells. (author)

  1. Logistics: Price Rises Incurred by High Oil Price

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lai Zhihui

    2011-01-01

    @@ "When the oil price grows by 100%, the logistic indus-try will see a price growth of 40%, while the logistics in-dustry a price rise of 35%, which means every price increase of 5% in the oil price will bring along that of 2% in this industry." said Liu Zongsheng, General Manager of Itochu Logistics Co., Ltd., on the seminar "Focusing on the eco-nomic consequences of raising oil price, interest rate and deposit reserve ratio", which was held recently.

  2. Oil price stability and free markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamani, A.Z.

    1992-01-01

    The oil industry, like any capital-intensive industry with long supply lead times, is prone to price instability. Free markets in oil reflect this inherent instability, for prices are efficient signallers of imbalances between supply and demand. Free markets are desirable in principle, but entirely free oil markets are unstable. Volatile oil prices are undesirable. This article advocates trading some market freedom for more price stability, since such a trade off will be beneficial to the world as a whole. (author)

  3. Crude oil degradation by Bacillus and Micrococcus species isolated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Microorganisms capable of degrading crude oil were isolated from soil compost in Kano, northwestern Nigeria. The work was carried out with the aim of determining crude-oil biodegradation potentials of Bacillus and Micrococcus species isolated from the soil compost as well as the assessment of the applicability of ...

  4. Remediation trials of crude oil contaminated soil using different ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A 3 month remediation trial of the use of detergent and sawdust in different combination forms in the restoration of a crude oil contaminated tropical soil was investigated. 8 remediation treatments labeled A – H in addition to the control (I) were used in 10 kg soil artificially polluted with 300 ml crude oil each. Remediation ...

  5. Toxicity of crude oil products and detergent on serum alkaline ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The comparative effect of exposing Clarias gariepinus juveniles (100.20 + 0.8g) to diferent concentrations of crude oil products and detergent were studied. Bonny Light Crude oil (BLCO), Premium motor spirit (PMS), Dual purpose kerosene (DPK) and Ariel Enzymax Detergent (AED) were respectively applied at three ...

  6. Manihot esculenta crantz in crude oil contaminated soil amended ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Studies on the performance of Manihot esculenta, Crantz (TMS 30572) in a crude oil polluted soil was investigated in the Botanic Garden of University of Port Harcourt. The soil samples were polluted at four different levels (0%, 2%, 4% and 6%) with crude oil and amended with organic supplement (decomposed Centrosem ...

  7. Oil prices and long-run risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ready, Robert Clayton

    I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide an excellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low future aggregate consumption growth. Motivated by these facts, I add an oil consumption good to the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron [2004] to study the asset pricing implications of observed changes in the dynamic interaction of consumption and oil prices. Empirically I observe that, compared to the first half of my 1987--2010 sample, oil consumption growth in the last 10 years is unresponsive to levels of oil prices, creating an decrease in the mean-reversion of oil prices, and an increase in the persistence of oil price shocks. The model implies that the change in the dynamics of oil consumption generates increased systematic risk from oil price shocks due to their increased persistence. However, persistent oil prices also act as a counterweight for shocks to expected consumption growth, with high expected growth creating high expectations of future oil prices which in turn slow down growth. The combined effect is to reduce overall consumption risk and lower the equity premium. The model also predicts that these changes affect the riskiness of of oil futures contracts, and combine to create a hump shaped term structure of oil futures, consistent with recent data.

  8. Crude oil options market found to be efficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the U.S. crude oil options market operates efficiently and does not overreact. The authors, with the JFK School of Government, studied the crude oil options market under a Department of Energy grant. The current market was created in November 1986 when the New York Mercantile Exchange introduced an options contract for delivery of West Texas intermediate crude futures. it has grown greatly since then

  9. Lead-lag effects between Brent Crude Futures and its respective spot prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Garcia Angelico

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This article aims the analyses of the causality and temporal precedence relationships between the spot and futures prices of Brent oil, those last ones inherent to financial markets. In order to achieve this objective, the main tools used were: Johansen cointegration test; Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test (GCBEW; generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition of forecast errors, those three last ones were estimated based in a Vector Error Correction Model (VEC, adjusted to the analyzed variables. The results indicated that, for the stipulated period, there was a pricing lightweight leadership from the futures contracts to the prices of spot market. However, as a conclusion of the article, the understanding is that this small difference, calculated in several econometric tools, cannot be considered enough to indicate that the Brent oil future market would be distorting its respective spot prices, despite the economic fundamentals of the physical market, such as production, consumption and stockpiling processes. Therefore, management decisions in industries exposed to crude oil prices should be aware of both physical and future markets’ prospections.

  10. Procedures in field systems for collecting and demulsifying crude oils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vakhitov, G G; Graifer, V I; Tronov, V P; Zakirov, I G

    1969-01-01

    This microscopic study of crude oil emulsification and demulsification showed that the sooner an emulsion is chemically treated, the less its stability. This finding led to the practice of adding demulsifiers to the crude oil in pipelines. This method of demulsification is now used in Romashkino, Bablinsk, and Elkhovs fields. By this early addition of a chemical, the tendency of the pipeline to form stable, highly viscous emulsions is reduced. This treatment also facilitates separation of water from oil in storage tanks. Repeated tests have shown that pipeline demulsification is a highly effective and economic process. This method reduces crude oil dewatering costs by several hundred percent.

  11. Tweens demulsification effects on heavy crude oil/water emulsion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nastaran Hayati Roodbari

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The demulsification role of Tweens (nonionic polymers was determined in the separation of water from heavy crude oil emulsion. According to the previous researches, these nonionic polymers, having hydrophilic and lipophilic groups, are appropriate for making oil in water emulsion. In this research their effects in certain concentrations on demulsifying of water in crude oil emulsion were proved. High molecular weight, alkenes’ chains and groups of ketone and ester in these polymers can improve their performance for the demulsification of water in crude oil emulsion. Their efficiencies are improved with electronegative groups such as oxygen. They leave no corrosion effect because they are neutral and do not leave counter ions.

  12. Oil prices: Breaks and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noguera, José

    2013-01-01

    This paper contributes to the literature of the stationarity of financial time series and the literature on oil and macroeconomics in several ways. First, it uses Kejriwal and Perron (2010) sequential procedure to endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices without facing the circular testing problem between structural changes and stationary assumptions of previous tests. Second, it performs a diagnostic check to detect the significance and magnitude of the potential breaks. Third, it uses the above information to test for the existence of stochastic trends in real oil prices, and fourth, it speculates about possible explanations for the break dates found in order to encourage further work and discussions. The exercise uses monthly data from January 1861 to August 2011. - Highlights: ► The model endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices. ► The methods used does not face the circular testing problem. ► It also detect the significance and magnitude of the breaks detected. ► It tests for the existence of stochastic trends. ► It explains the reasons for the break dates found

  13. Short-run and long-run elasticities of import demand for crude oil in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altinay, Galip

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study is to attempt to estimate the short-run and the long-run elasticities of demand for crude oil in Turkey by the recent autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. As a developing country, Turkey meets its growing demand for oil principally by foreign suppliers. Thus, the study focuses on modelling the demand for imported crude oil using annual data covering the period 1980-2005. The bounds test results reveal that a long-run cointegration relationship exists between the crude oil import and the explanatory variables: nominal price and income, but not in the model that includes real price in domestic currency. The long-run parameters are estimated through a long-run static solution of the estimated ARDL model, and then the short-run dynamics are estimated by the error correction model. The estimated models pass the diagnostic tests successfully. The findings reveal that the income and price elasticities of import demand for crude oil are inelastic both in the short run and in the long run

  14. Evidence on the nature and extent of the relationship between oil prices and equity values in the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Sharif, Idris; Brown, Dick; Burton, Bruce; Nixon, Bill; Russell, Alex

    2005-01-01

    A number of recent studies have found a link between movements in crude oil prices and equity values. However, the literature concentrates almost exclusively on North American and Australian data and is primarily conducted at a stock market-wide level. The present study therefore investigates the relationship between the price of crude oil and equity values in the oil and gas sector using data relating to the United Kingdom, the largest oil producer in the European Union. The evidence indicates that the relationship is always positive, often highly significant and reflects the direct impact of volatility in the price of crude oil on share values within the sector. (Author)

  15. Oil transformation sector modelling: price interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maurer, A.

    1992-01-01

    A global oil and oil product prices evolution model is proposed that covers the transformation sector incidence and the final user price establishment together with price interactions between gaseous and liquid hydrocarbons. High disparities among oil product prices in the various consumer zones (North America, Western Europe, Japan) are well described and compared with the low differences between oil supply prices in these zones. Final user price fluctuations are shown to be induced by transformation differences and competition; natural gas market is also modelled

  16. Experimental study on yield behavior of Daqing crude oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hou, Lei [China University of Petroleum, College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering, Beijing (China)

    2012-07-15

    The yield behavior of Daqing crude oil was studied by means of multi-mode controlled-stress tests with a high-precision stress controlled rheometer. Two experiments of creep and constant stress loading rate were performed. The yield stress of gelled crude oil was dependent on the test conditions such as the stress loading time and the stress loading rate, but the yield strain did not change with test conditions. The yield strain did exist objectively and it can be used as the criterion for the yielding of the structure of gelled crude oil. The yield strain of gelled oil was studied through experiments of creep, constant stress loading rate, oscillatory shear stress increase, and constant shear rate. The yield strain of gelled crude oil decreased with the increasing gel strength. The experiment of constant speed increase of stress showed the strain softening phenomena for low gel strength oil. (orig.)

  17. Beyond the crude oil and gas reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sote, K.

    1993-01-01

    Petroleum remains the greatest jewel of inestimable value in both the local and international treasure hunts for cheap energy source and viable investment options the world over. The diverse business potentials and favourable government policies in Nigeria aimed specifically at stimulating investments in the up streams, midstream and downstream industries need to be tapped by both indigenous and foreign investors alike. Beyond the crude oil and gas reserves' is therefore our modest effort to support such policies, sensitise the Nigerian petroleum industry and promote more dynamic awareness for the varied business opportunities abound in this sector of the economy. The main objective or this publication is to bring to a wider audience within and outside the oil industry a spectrum of such salient opportunities therein. The publication further presents in a lucid and consize form the hidden potentials yet to be harnessed, captures the essence of such investments, identifies the inherent problems in Nigeria peculiar circumstance and thus provides a detailed guide to address such short-coming, viz. Inadequate and poor knowledge of petroleum industry, its operation, by products and their correct applications. - Lack of understanding of the intricacies, realities and technicalities of petroleum business in general. - Poor financial resources, management style, operational and marketing strategies man power and human resources development.- Dirge of information, lack of professional advice and technical service support on the varied business opportunities for diversification. Apathy on the part of the investors themselves to seek for professional support from competent oil consultants, technocrats, institutionalised authorities on petroleum and related matters, amongst others. In summary, the book is divided into ten chapters with illustrations, graphics, drawings, sketches and incorporating figures, statistics, business reports, marketing results, feasibility studies

  18. The arch oil price manipulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1998-01-01

    First set up in 1960, OPEC has become a highly successful cartel and a key player on the world geopolitical scene. Through quotas and dragooning its members, it has maintained the world price of oil at a level much higher than the marginal cost of new oil from the largest producers by holding off new supplies which might otherwise have flooded the market. The two main factors which have made this persistent success possible are examined. They are OPEC's very low production costs vis-a-vis its competitors and the extent of the organisation's shut-in, low-cost reserves. (UK)

  19. Feasibility Process for Remediation of the Crude Oil Contaminated Soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keum, H.; Choi, H.; Heo, H.; Lee, S.; Kang, G.

    2015-12-01

    More than 600 oil wells were destroyed in Kuwait by Iraqi in 1991. During the war, over 300 oil lakes with depth of up to 2m at more than 500 different locations which has been over 49km2. Therefore, approximately 22 million m3was crude oil contaminated. As exposure of more than 20 years under atmospheric conditions of Kuwait, the crude oil has volatile hydrocarbons and covered heavy oily sludge under the crude oil lake. One of crude oil contaminated soil which located Burgan Oilfield area was collected by Kuwait Oil Company and got by H-plus Company. This contaminated soil has about 42% crude oil and could not biodegraded itself due to the extremely high toxicity. This contaminated soil was separated by 2mm sieve for removal oil sludge ball. Total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) was analysis by GC FID and initial TPH concentration was average 48,783 mg/kg. Ten grams of the contaminated soil replaced in two micro reactors with 20mL of bio surfactant produce microorganism. Reactor 1 was added 0.1g powder hemoglobin and other reactor was not added hemoglobin at time 0 day. Those reactors shake 120 rpm on the shaker for 7 days and CO2 produced about 150mg/L per day. After 7 days under the slurry systems, the rest days operated by hemoglobin as primary carbon source for enhanced biodegradation. The crude oil contaminated soil was degraded from 48,783mg/kg to 20,234mg/kg by slurry process and final TPH concentration degraded 11,324mg/kg for 21days. Therefore, highly contaminated soil by crude oil will be combined bio slurry process and biodegradation process with hemoglobin as bio catalytic source. Keywords: crude-oil contaminated soil, bio slurry, biodegradation, hemoglobin ACKOWLEDGEMENTS This project was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) GAIA Program

  20. New heavy crude oil flow improver increases delivery : application scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pierce, J.; Johnston, R.; Lauzon, P. [ConocoPhillips Specialty Products Inc., Houston, TX (United States)

    2009-07-01

    Flow improvers or drag reducing agents have been used for over 25 years as a method to increase fluid flow in hydrocarbon pipelines. The technology is effective in refined projects, light and medium crude oils. This paper presented a new development in flow improver technology that allows treatment of heavy crude oil slates. It discussed case studies of flow improver treatment of heavy oils in various pipeline system as well as factors that affect commercial success. tabs., figs.

  1. Testing the evolution of crude oil market efficiency: Data have the conn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Bing; Li, Xiao-Ming; He, Fei

    2014-01-01

    Utilising a time-varying GAR (1)-TGARCH (1,1) model with different frequency data, we investigate the weak-form efficiency of major global crude oil spot markets in Europe, the US, the UAE and China for the period from December 2001 to August 2013. Our empirical results with weekly data indicate that all four markets have reached efficiency with few brief inefficient periods during the past decade, whereas the daily crude oil returns series suggest intermittent and inconsistent efficiency. We argue that the weekly Friday series fit the data better than the average series in autocorrelation tests. The evidence suggests that all four markets exhibit asymmetries in return-volatility reactions to different information shocks and that they react more strongly to bad news than to good news. The 2008 financial crisis has significantly affected the efficiency of oil markets. Furthermore, a comovement phenomenon and volatility spillover effects exist among the oil markets. Policy recommendations consistent with our empirical results are proposed, which address three issues: implementing prudential regulations, establishing an Asian pricing centre and improving transparency in crude oil spot markets. - Highlights: • We adopt a time-varying model to test the weak-form efficiency of crude oil markets. • Weekly oil returns series have been extremely efficient during the past decade. • Daily oil returns series have presented intermittent and inconsistent efficiency. • Oil markets react asymmetrically to different information shocks. • Policy recommendations are proposed according to the degree of efficiency

  2. MICROWAVE HEATING AND SEPARATION OF WATER-IN-OIL EMULSION FROM MEXICAN CRUDE OIL

    OpenAIRE

    VAZQUEZ V., ADRIAN; LOPEZ M., ARTURO; ANDRADE C., LUIS J.; VAZQUEZ A., ARIANA M.

    2014-01-01

    Microwave heating and gravity sedimentation are alternatives for demulsification and layer separation into oil and water layers, this process was demonstrated in the laboratory and provides an option for reducing and oil recovering from water-in-oil Mexican oil emulsions. The combinatorial process was implemented in a test lab using Mexican crude oil samples. The Laboratory samples were 100% and 50-50%, crude and crude-water respectively, were heated. The results were encouraging show that mi...

  3. EEC demand for imported crude oil, 1956--1985

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kouris, G; Robinson, C

    1977-06-01

    The authors develop here a model which analyses the EEC demand for imported oil, basing the analysis on functional relationships with real income and price. They conclude that net imports into the EEC in 1985 will be sensitive to future oil prices. If no UK oil were available then it might be necessary to double real oil prices to meet an objective of holding net imports to their 1973 levels. However, the existence of UK oil should allow this goal to be achieved with much lower price rises, probably around 30 to 50%, but perhaps as low as zero.

  4. "Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets"

    OpenAIRE

    Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Roengchai Tansuchat

    2009-01-01

    Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at- Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia- Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover effects across and within the four mar...

  5. How much crude oil can zooplankton ingest? Estimating the quantity of dispersed crude oil defecated by planktonic copepods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almeda, Rodrigo; Connelly, Tara L.; Buskey, Edward J.

    2016-01-01

    We investigated and quantified defecation rates of crude oil by 3 species of marine planktonic copepods (Temora turbinata, Acartia tonsa, and Parvocalanus crassirostris) and a natural copepod assemblage after exposure to mechanically or chemically dispersed crude oil. Between 88 and 100% of the analyzed fecal pellets from three species of copepods and a natural copepod assemblage exposed for 48 h to physically or chemically dispersed light crude oil contained crude oil droplets. Crude oil droplets inside fecal pellets were smaller (median diameter: 2.4–3.5 μm) than droplets in the physically and chemically dispersed oil emulsions (median diameter: 6.6 and 8.0 μm, respectively). This suggests that copepods can reject large crude oil droplets or that crude oil droplets are broken into smaller oil droplets before or during ingestion. Depending on the species and experimental treatments, crude oil defecation rates ranged from 5.3 to 245 ng-oil copepod"−"1 d"−"1, which represent a mean weight-specific defecation rate of 0.026 μg-oil μg-C_c_o_p_e_p_o_d"1 d"−"1. Considering a dispersed crude oil concentration commonly found in the water column after oil spills (1 μl L"−"1) and copepod abundances in high productive coastal areas, copepods may defecate ∼1.3–2.6 mg-oil m"−"3 d"−"1, which would represent ∼0.15%–0.30% of the total dispersed oil per day. Our results indicate that ingestion and subsequent defecation of crude oil by planktonic copepods has a small influence on the overall mass of oil spills in the short term, but may be quantitatively important in the flux of oil from surface water to sediments and in the transfer of low-solubility, toxic petroleum hydrocarbons into food webs after crude oil spills in the sea. - Highlights: • Copepods exposed to dispersed crude oil produced fecal pellets contained numerous small oil droplets (2.4 to 3.5 µm). • Copepods could reject large oil droplets or oil droplets are broken into

  6. Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiarella, Carl; Kang, Boda; Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios; Tô, Thuy-Duong

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. The model encompasses hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility, which entails a finite-dimensional affine model for the commodity futures curve and quasi-analytical prices for options on commodity futures. Using an extensive database of crude oil futures and futures options spanning 21 years, we find the presence of hump-shaped, partially spanned stochastic volatility in the crude oil market. The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile, and delivers better pricing as well as hedging performance under various dynamic factor hedging schemes. - Highlights: • This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. • 21-years of data on crude oil futures and futures options is used. • The crude oil futures market has hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility. • The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile. • Hump shape delivers better pricing and hedging compared to exponential decay

  7. Expanding U.S. markets for Canadian crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heath, M.; Angevine, G.; Chan, K.; Renne, G.; Stariha, J.; MacKay, E.

    1993-01-01

    The quantities and types of Canadian, U.S. and competing foreign crudes flowing into U.S. market regions and the potential to retain and/or expand Canadian crude oil sales in each of those markets, was studied. The various pipeline system expansion/construction proposals were reviewed. Findings of the study with respect to prospects for crude oil sales into each of the U.S. market regions were presented. Opportunities and constraints with regard to the potential for incremental crude oil sales into each of the U.S. market regions were detailed. The study concluded that there was a substantial market in the U.S. for incremental sales of Canadian crudes. Most of the refineries in the U.S. market regions were more flexible in terms of their crude diet than they were before the rationalization and restructuring of the industry began. The market for crude oil in the U.S. was shown to be one of the most competitive in the world and the most volatile. The study also revealed that there were risks associated with large additions to the capacity to ship crude oil by pipeline from Western Canada, given the uncertainties surrounding future supply. 4 refs., figs., tabs

  8. Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apergis, Nicholas; Miller, Stephen M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates how explicit structural shocks that characterize the endogenous character of oil price changes affect stock-market returns in a sample of eight countries - Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For each country, the analysis proceeds in two steps. First, modifying the procedure of Kilian [Not All Oil Price Shocks are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. American Economic Review.], we employ a vector error-correction or vector autoregressive model to decompose oil-price changes into three components: oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks. The last component relates to specific idiosyncratic features of the oil market, such as changes in the precautionary demand concerning the uncertainty about the availability of future oil supplies. Second, recovering the oil-supply shocks, global aggregate-demand shocks, and global oil-demand shocks from the first analysis, we then employ a vector autoregressive model to determine the effects of these structural shocks on the stock market returns in our sample of eight countries. We find that international stock market returns do not respond in a large way to oil market shocks. That is, the significant effects that exist prove small in magnitude. (author)

  9. Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenhua; Yang, Kun; Wei, Yu; Lei, Likun

    2018-01-01

    Volatilities of crude oil price have important impacts on the steady and sustainable development of world real economy. Thus it is of great academic and practical significance to model and measure the volatility and risk of crude oil markets accurately. This paper aims to measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of a portfolio consists of four crude oil assets by using GARCH-type models, extreme value theory (EVT) and vine copulas. The backtesting results show that the combination of GARCH-type-EVT models and vine copula methods can produce accurate risk measures of the oil portfolio. Mixed R-vine copula is more flexible and superior to other vine copulas. Different GARCH-type models, which can depict the long-memory and/or leverage effect of oil price volatilities, however offer similar marginal distributions of the oil returns.

  10. An Improved CO2-Crude Oil Minimum Miscibility Pressure Correlation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Minimum miscibility pressure (MMP, which plays an important role in miscible flooding, is a key parameter in determining whether crude oil and gas are completely miscible. On the basis of 210 groups of CO2-crude oil system minimum miscibility pressure data, an improved CO2-crude oil system minimum miscibility pressure correlation was built by modified conjugate gradient method and global optimizing method. The new correlation is a uniform empirical correlation to calculate the MMP for both thin oil and heavy oil and is expressed as a function of reservoir temperature, C7+ molecular weight of crude oil, and mole fractions of volatile components (CH4 and N2 and intermediate components (CO2, H2S, and C2~C6 of crude oil. Compared to the eleven most popular and relatively high-accuracy CO2-oil system MMP correlations in the previous literature by other nine groups of CO2-oil MMP experimental data, which have not been used to develop the new correlation, it is found that the new empirical correlation provides the best reproduction of the nine groups of CO2-oil MMP experimental data with a percentage average absolute relative error (%AARE of 8% and a percentage maximum absolute relative error (%MARE of 21%, respectively.

  11. Supplying synthetic crude oil from Canadian oil sands: A comparative study of the costs and CO2 emissions of mining and in-situ recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Méjean, Aurélie; Hope, Chris

    2013-01-01

    High crude oil prices and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels such as non-conventional oil. The paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of synthetic crude oil produced from Canadian oil sands. Synthetic crude oil is obtained by upgrading bitumen that is first produced through mining or in-situ recovery techniques. This forward-looking analysis quantifies the effects of learning and production constraints on the costs of supplying synthetic crude oil. The sensitivity analysis shows that before 2035, the most influential parameters are the learning parameter in the case of in-situ bitumen and the depletion parameter in the case of mined bitumen. After 2035, depletion dominates in both cases. The results show that the social cost of CO 2 has a large impact on the total costs of synthetic crude oil, in particular in the case of synthetic crude oil from in-situ bitumen, due to the carbon intensity of the recovery techniques: taking into account the social cost of CO 2 adds more than half to the cost of producing synthetic crude oil from mined bitumen in 2050 (mean value), while the cost of producing synthetic crude oil from in-situ bitumen more than doubles. - Highlights: • We model the cost of Canadian synthetic crude oil (SCO) using Monte-Carlo techniques. • We reveal the uncertainty associated with each input parameter. • We quantify the effect of learning, depletion and CO 2 using sensitivity analyses. • Accounting for the social cost of CO 2 doubles the cost of SCO from in-situ bitumen. • CO 2 pricing could have a large effect on the economics of the oil sands

  12. Characterization of Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Post-Burn Crude Oil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In the Niger delta, crude oil spilled soils are burned as a means of decontaminating the impacted soils. Gas chromatography - flame ionization detector (GCFID) analyses were performed on oil residues extracted from burnt spilled oil soil samples to facilitate detailed chemical composition and characterization of petroleum ...

  13. Effect of asphaltenes on crude oil wax crystallization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kriz, Pavel; Andersen, Simon Ivar

    2005-01-01

    The paper summarizes the experimental work done on asphaltene influenced wax crystallization. Three different asphaltenes (from stable oil, instable oil, and deposit) were mixed at several concentrations or dispersions into the waxy crude oil. These blends were evaluated by viscometry and yield s...

  14. The effect of global oil price shocks on China's metal markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Chuanguo; Tu, Xiaohua

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigated the impacts of global oil price shocks on the whole metal market and two typical metal markets: copper and aluminum. We applied the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model, combining with the generalized conditional heteroscedasticity (GRACH) method, to describe the volatility process and jump behavior in the global oil market. We separated the oil price shocks into positive and negative parts, to analyze whether oil price volatility had symmetric impacts on China’s metal markets. We further used the likelihood ratio test to examine the symmetric effect of oil price shocks. In addition, we considered the jump behavior in oil prices as an input factor to investigate how China’s metal markets are affected when jumps occur in the global oil market, in contrast to the existing research paying little attention to this issue. Our results indicate that crude oil price shocks have significant impacts on China's metal markets and the impacts are symmetric. When compared with aluminum, copper is more easily affected by oil price shocks. - Highlights: • We investigated the effect of oil price shocks on China’s metal markets. • The oil price shocks had significant impacts on China's metal markets • The oil price shocks on China's metal markets were symmetric. • Copper is more easily affected by oil price shocks than aluminum.

  15. A time-series analysis of the crude oil spot and futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quan Jing.

    1990-01-01

    First, the existence of the relationship is tested. Second, after the relationship is established, it is tested to determine the direction of causality. Most of previous research on this issue ignored the first step, and the existence of the relationship was taken for granted. Unfortunately, however, this assumption is not justified since it does not necessarily hold. The first relationship investigated in this study is between the crude oil spot and futures prices. It is found that spot price leads futures prices instead of the futures price providing information on the spot price. Two additional relationships studied are those between the OPEC oil supply and the futures prices and that between the same supply and spot prices. In the case of OPEC supply and spot prices, a self-adaptive model with supply interruption dummy variables is introduced to study the price behavior. It is found that prices follow an adaptive process, that is, the previous price information offers powerful influence on the current price

  16. Russian crude-oil production and export still increasing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purho, P.

    2001-01-01

    Russian crude-oil production is still increasing. In 2000 the annual production 6.48 mb/d was about 6% higher than a year before. In 2001 the production is expected to rise near the level 7 mb/d, so the increase in production volume is fast. However, the production is still far away from the maximum level of the former Soviet Union, 12 mb/d. At the moment Russia is the second largest oil producer right after Saudi Arabia. The increase in production is based on intensified use of old oil fields caused by improved technology. The oil export of Russia far abroad in 2000 was 2.5 mb/d and near abroad into FSU countries only about 180 000 b/d. The recent export of crude-oil has been near the maximum export capacity corresponding to 2.7 mb/d. About 61 million tons of oil products were exported in 2000, and even the export of oil products is increasing. Most of this was gas oil and heavy fuel oil, but also the export of gasoline was significant. The export of oil and oil products is mainly based on shipments, but also the share of train transport is high. Nearly all the crude oil is transported west either by ships or via pipelines. The share of railway transport is only few percents. Russia will continue its own oil pumping policy despite of the appeals of OPEC for reduction of oil production. Opinion in Russia is that if the increase of production and export serves the interests of Russia, it will also be carried out. The target value for crude oil for 2002 is 22 USD per barrel. The Russian crude oil production is estimated to grow up to 7.4 - 8.4 mb/d by the year 2010

  17. Influence of the type of crude oil to platforming effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kafedzhiski, Branko; Crvenkova, Suzana; Zikovski, Toni

    1999-01-01

    Platforming in one of the most subtleties processing in refinery industry and it is permanent source for research and finding out the higher optimum degree. Optimum of the last effects of platforming directly depends on many parameters. One of more important parameters is the type of crude. The purpose of this work is presenting positive and negative effect to the platforming parameters caused by different types of crude in OCTA-Crude Oil Refinery -Skopje, Macedonia. (Original)

  18. Influence of the crude oil type to platforming effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kafedzhiski, Branko; Crvenkova, Suzana; Zikovski, Toni

    1999-01-01

    Platforming is one of the most subtleties processing in refinery industry and it is permanent source for research and finding out the higher optimum degree. Optimum of the last effects of platforming directly depends on many parameters. One of the more important parameters is the type of the crude. The purpose of this work is presenting positive and negative effect to the platforming parameters caused by different types of crude in OCTA Crude Oil Refinery - Skopje (Macedonia). (Author)

  19. Oil prices and OPEC strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boussena, S.

    1994-01-01

    One of the main characteristics of the new world petroleum market is the high level of uncertainty in future crude price trends. Although its influence has declined, OPEC is still a decisive player now. How can its present conduct be explained. A retrospective analysis of the organization's actions in the course of these last twenty years brings out a certain number of explicit and implicit lessons it seems to have drawn from its own experience. On the basis of this analysis, and in light of the new balance of forces, OPEC is now faced with two possible strategic options. Its current practice seems rather to indicate a drift away from its plan to become the exclusive regulator of the international market. (author). 2 tabs., 3 figs

  20. Modeling of well drilling heating on crude oil using microwave

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muntini, Melania Suweni, E-mail: melania@physics.its.ac.id; Pramono, Yono Hadi; Yustiana [Physics Department, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya Kampus ITS, Sukolilo, Surabaya 60111 (Indonesia)

    2016-03-11

    As the world’s oil reserves are dwindling, some researchers have been prompted to make a breakthrough to further improve the efficiency of exploration and production. One of the technologies used is heating the crude oil. This paper presents the modeling results of heat treatment on crude oil using microwave energy. Modeling is conducted by assuming that the diameter of the well is 11,16 cm, the heat source is applied on the surface of the well, and the cut-off frequency in the air and on crude oil are 1,56 GHz. and 0.91 GHz, respectively. The energy generated by the microwave radiation is converted into heat energy which is absorbed by the crude oil. Consequently, this energy increases the temperature of crude oil through a heat transfer mechanism. The results obtained showed that the temperature of crude oil is about 200°C at a depth of 62.5cm, and at a distance of 3 cm from the center of the well. Temperature along the well follows an exponential function, which is from the center of the well in the direction radially outward from the cylinder axis. It has been observed that the temperature decreases as measured from the well surface along the cylinder.

  1. Oil price, capital mobility and oil importers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez-Romero, A.

    1992-01-01

    A three-region, three-commodity general equilibrium model is constructed to explore the impact of OPEC's pricing policies on major macro variables of importer economies. The aim of this paper is to explore general macro characteristics of the trading economies to aid understanding of the world economy response after OPEC I and OPEC II in terms of the evolution of North - South terms of trade, rates of profit and output levels. We support the view of a world economy in a three regions setting, North - South - OPEC. The analysis increases our understanding of why regions respond differently to the same external shock and how from different regimes of capital mobility we should derive alternative policy implications. With the current rise in oil prices, the topic promises to be relevant for some time, although the direction of the shocks has been reserved. (Author)

  2. The relationship between SARA fractions and crude oil stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siavash Ashoori

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Asphaltene precipitation and deposition are drastic issues in the petroleum industry. Monitoring the asphaltene stability in crude oil is still a serious problem and has been subject of many studies. To investigate crude oil stability by saturate, aromatic, resin and asphaltene (SARA analysis seven types of crudes with different components were used. The applied methods for SARA quantification are IP-143 and ASTM D893-69 and the colloidal instability index (CII is computed from the SARA values as well. In comparison between CII results, the values of oil compositions demonstrated that the stability of asphaltenes in crude oils is a phenomenon that is related to all these components and it cannot be associated only with one of them, individually.

  3. Evaluation of Crude Oil Biodegradation Efficiency and Peroxidase ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    Increase in biomass enhanced degradation efficiency above 80 % after 10 days for all concentration of crude oil studied. Peroxidase ... compounds by various bacteria and fungi (Gianfreda et al, 1999) ... into a clean plastic container. Microbial.

  4. Investigating Asphaltenes Composition in Crude Oil Samples using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MBI

    2015-12-22

    Dec 22, 2015 ... composition of asphaltenes by Iatroscan TLC-FID method was compared with the weight% of asphaltenes precipitated. ... SARA in the crude oil samples were determined in this work ..... Fractionation and characterization of.

  5. Enhancement of Crude Oil Polluted Soil by Applying Single and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    bioline.org.br/ja ... 5 kg of soil each was polluted with 200 ml of crude oil ... organic matter, phosphate, nitrate, total hydrocarbon content, potassium and microbial population were analyzed before ... arise mainly from the processing and distribution of.

  6. An isolated bacterial consortium for crude oil biodegradation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GREGORY

    2011-12-16

    Dec 16, 2011 ... African Journal of Biotechnology Vol. 10(81), pp. ... The removal of crude oil by bioremediation was achieved in less time as compared to natural attenuation ... Environmental pollution, especially with hydrocarbons is a major ...

  7. Time-varying predictability in crude-oil markets: the case of GCC countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed; Thanh Huong Dinh; Duc Khuong Nguyen

    2010-01-01

    This paper uses a time-varying parameter model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity effects to examine the dynamic behavior of crude-oil prices for the period February 7, 1997-January 8, 2010. Using data from four countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, we find evidence of short-term predictability in oil-price changes over time, except for several short sub-periods. However, the hypothesis of convergence towards weak-form informational efficiency is rejected for all markets. In addition, we explore the possibility of structural breaks in the time-paths of the estimated predictability indices and detect only one breakpoint, for the oil markets in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Our empirical results therefore call for new empirical research to further gauge the predictability characteristics and the determinants of oil-price changes.

  8. Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedregal, D.J.; Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

  9. Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedregal, D.J. [Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales and Instituto de Matematica Aplicada a la Ciencia y la Ingenieria (IMACI), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Avenida Camilo Jose Cela s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A. [Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM) (Spain)

    2009-11-15

    This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

  10. Bioremediation of crude oil spills in marine and terrestrial environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prince, R.C.

    1995-01-01

    Bioremediation can be a safe and effective tool for dealing with crude oil spills, as demonstrated during the cleanup following the Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska. Crude oil has also been spilled on land, and bioremediation is a promising option for land spills too. Nevertheless, there are still areas where understanding of the phenomenon is rather incomplete. Research groups around the world are addressing these problems, and this symposium provides an excellent overview of some of this work

  11. Kurdistan crude oils as feedstock for production of aromatics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulsalam R. Karim

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Crude oils from various locations in Iraqi Kurdistan were fully evaluated, so that enables refiners to improve their operation by selecting the best crude oil that yields high naphtha content to be used as a catalytic reforming feedstock after determination of total sulfur content and then de sulfurizing them, then cyclizing or reforming these sweet naphtha cuts to produce aromatic fractions which can be split into benzene, toluene, and xylenes.

  12. Palm oil price forecasting model: An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, Mohd Fahmi Abdul; Shabri, Ani

    2017-05-01

    Palm oil price fluctuated without any clear trend or cyclical pattern in the last few decades. The instability of food commodities price causes it to change rapidly over time. This paper attempts to develop Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in modeling and forecasting the price of palm oil. In order to use ARDL as a forecasting model, this paper modifies the data structure where we only consider lagged explanatory variables to explain the variation in palm oil price. We then compare the performance of this ARDL model with a benchmark model namely ARIMA in term of their comparative forecasting accuracy. This paper also utilize ARDL bound testing approach to co-integration in examining the short run and long run relationship between palm oil price and its determinant; production, stock, and price of soybean as the substitute of palm oil and price of crude oil. The comparative forecasting accuracy suggests that ARDL model has a better forecasting accuracy compared to ARIMA.

  13. Oil price fluctuations and the Nigerian economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayadi, O.F.

    2005-01-01

    The single most important issue confronting a growing number of world economies today is the price of oil and its attendant consequences on economic output. Several studies have taken the approach of Hamilton (1983) in investigating the effect of oil price shocks on levels of gross domestic product. The focus of this paper is primarily on the relationship between oil price changes and economic development via industrial production. A vector auto regression model is employed on some macroeconomic variables from 1980 through 2004. The results indicate that oil price changes affect real exchange rates, which, in turn, affect industrial production. However, this indirect effect of oil prices on industrial production is not statistically significant. Therefore, the implication of the results presented in this paper is that an increase in oil prices does not lead to an increase in industrial production in Nigeria. (author)

  14. An analysis of factors affecting price volatility of the US oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, C.W.; Hwang, M.J.; Huang, B.N.

    2002-01-01

    This paper studies the price volatility of the crude oil market by examining the market structure of OPEC, the stable and unstable demand structure, and related elasticity of demand. In particular, the impacts of prosperity and recession of the world economy and the resulting demand shift on crude oil price are investigated. The error correction model is used to estimate the demand relations and related elasticity. The income effect on demand functions is evaluated to shed light on future prices. A simulation of potential oil prices under different scenarios on a cut of one million barrels per day by OPEC is evaluated. From our simulation, given the 4% cut in OPEC production, the oil price is expected to increase unless the recession is severe. The magnitude and scope of a price hike would be diminished if non-OPEC or domestic production were greatly expanded

  15. The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fleming, J.; Ostdiek, B. [Jones Graduate School of Management, Rice University, MS 531, P.O. Box 1892 Houston, TX (United States)

    1999-04-01

    We examine the effects of energy derivatives trading on the crude oil market. There is a common public and regulatory perception that derivative securities increase volatility and can have a destabilizing effect on the underlying market. Consistent with this view, we find an abnormal increase in volatility for three consecutive weeks following the introduction of NYMEX crude oil futures. While there is also evidence of a longer-term volatility increase, this is likely due to exogenous factors, such as the continuing deregulation of the energy markets. Subsequent introductions of crude oil options and derivatives on other energy commodities have no effect on crude oil volatility. We also examine the effects of derivatives trading on the depth and liquidity of the crude oil market. This analysis reveals a strong inverse relation between the open interest in crude oil futures and spot market volatility. Specifically, when open interest is greater, the volatility shock associated with a given unexpected increase in volume is much smaller. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  16. Microbial degradation of resins fractionated from Arabian light crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venkateswaran, K.; Hoaki, T.; Kato, M.; Maruyama, T.

    1995-01-01

    Sediment samples from the Japanese coasts were screened for microorganisms able to degrade resin components of crude oil. A mixed population that could degrade 35% of 5000 ppm resin in 15 days was obtained. This population also metabolized 50% of saturates and aromatics present in crude oil (5000 ppm) in 7 days. A Pseudomonas sp., isolated from the mixed population, emulsified and degraded 30% of resins. It also degraded saturates and aromatics (30%) present in crude oil (5000 ppm). These results were obtained from Iatroscan analysis. Degradation of crude oil was also analyzed by gas chromatography (GC). The peaks corresponding to known aliphatic hydrocarbons in crude oil greatly decreased within the first two days of incubation in the cultures of the RY-mixed population and of Pseudomonas strain UN3. Aromatic compounds detected as a broad peak by GC were significantly degraded at day 7 by Pseudomonas strain UN3, and at day 15 by the RY-mixed population. Investigations are ongoing to determine the genetic basis for the ability of these organisms to grow on the resin fractions of crude oil as a sole source of carbon and energy. 28 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  17. The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, J.; Ostdiek, B.

    1999-01-01

    We examine the effects of energy derivatives trading on the crude oil market. There is a common public and regulatory perception that derivative securities increase volatility and can have a destabilizing effect on the underlying market. Consistent with this view, we find an abnormal increase in volatility for three consecutive weeks following the introduction of NYMEX crude oil futures. While there is also evidence of a longer-term volatility increase, this is likely due to exogenous factors, such as the continuing deregulation of the energy markets. Subsequent introductions of crude oil options and derivatives on other energy commodities have no effect on crude oil volatility. We also examine the effects of derivatives trading on the depth and liquidity of the crude oil market. This analysis reveals a strong inverse relation between the open interest in crude oil futures and spot market volatility. Specifically, when open interest is greater, the volatility shock associated with a given unexpected increase in volume is much smaller. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  18. Analysis on 'new fundamentals' and range of oil price trend in the long run

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rui, Chen

    2010-09-15

    The range of trend of oil price will be decided by marginal production cost of crude oil and production cost of alternative energy consumed as transportation fuel on a large scale. The former factor determines the lower limit and the latter determines the upper limit of oil price. financial factors and the value of USD will not only affect the short-term change of oil price, they may become fundamentals factors that exert influence on the mid-long term change of oil price, namely, New Fundamentals, which will determine the fluctuation degree of oil price in the long run.

  19. What is behind the increase in oil prices? Analyzing oil consumption and supply relationship with oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallo, Andres; Mason, Paul; Shapiro, Steve; Fabritius, Michael

    2010-01-01

    The continuing increases in oil prices have renewed the argument over the real culprits behind these movements. The growth in demand for oil in international markets, especially from the United States and China, is often identified as the main source of consumption pressure on prices, and thus the upward trend in oil prices. This paper uses unit root tests with two endogenous breaks to analyze the characteristics of oil prices, production, and consumption for several countries. By taking into account structural breaks, we find that many countries' oil consumption and oil prices are stationary, while other countries' are not. We also perform causality tests to determine the direction of any possible relationship between oil price and oil consumption and production. Our statistical analysis reveals that production variables cause oil prices, while oil prices tend to cause consumption. As a result, we claim that the blame for the recent fluctuations in oil prices is more appropriately associated with supply factors, not consumption influences. (author)

  20. Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema

    2010-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to model the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices. We use daily data for the period 2000-2008 and include the nominal exchange rate as an additional determinant of stock prices. We find that stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are cointegrated, and oil prices have a positive and statistically significant impact on stock prices. This result is inconsistent with theoretical expectations. The growth of the Vietnamese stock market was accompanied by rising oil prices. However, the boom of the stock market was marked by increasing foreign portfolio investment inflows which are estimated to have doubled from US$0.9 billion in 2005 to US$1.9 billion in 2006. There was also a change in preferences from holding foreign currencies and domestic bank deposits to stocks local market participants, and there was a rise in leveraged investment in stock as well as investments on behalf of relatives living abroad. It seems that the impact of these internal and domestic factors were more dominant than the oil price rise on the Vietnamese stock market. (author)

  1. World oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soytas, Ugur; Sari, Ramazan; Hammoudeh, Shawkat; Hacihasanoglu, Erk

    2009-01-01

    We examine the long- and short-run transmissions of information between the world oil price, Turkish interest rate, Turkish lira-US dollar exchange rate, and domestic spot gold and silver price. We find that the world oil price has no predictive power of the precious metal prices, the interest rate or the exchange rate market in Turkey. The results also show that the Turkish spot precious metals, exchange rate and bond markets do not also provide information that would help improve the forecasts of world oil prices in the long run. The findings suggest that domestic gold is also considered a safe haven in Turkey during devaluation of the Turkish lira, as it is globally. It is interesting to note that there does not seem to be any significant influence of developments in the world oil markets on Turkish markets in the short run either. However, transitory positive initial impacts of innovations in oil prices on gold and silver markets are observed. The short-run price transmissions between the world oil market and the Turkish precious metal markets have implications for policy makers in emerging markets and both local and global investors in the precious metals market and the oil market.

  2. Standard guide for determining corrosivity of crude oils

    CERN Document Server

    American Society for Testing and Materials. Philadelphia

    2010-01-01

    1.1 This guide presents some generally accepted laboratory methodologies that are used for determining the corrosivity of crude oil. 1.2 This guide does not cover detailed calculations and methods, but rather a range of approaches that have found application in evaluating the corrosivity of crude oil. 1.3 Only those methodologies that have found wide acceptance in crude oil corrosivity evaluation are considered in this guide. 1.4 This guide does not address the change in oil/water ratio caused by accumulation of water at low points in a pipeline system. 1.5 This guide is intended to assist in the selection of methodologies that can be used for determining the corrosivity of crude oil under conditions in which water is present in the liquid state (typically up to 100°C). These conditions normally occur during oil and gas production, storage, and transportation in the pipelines. 1.6 This guide does not cover the evaluation of corrosivity of crude oil at higher temperatures (typically above 300°C) that oc...

  3. Oil prices in a new light

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesharaki, F.

    1994-01-01

    For a clear picture of how oil prices develop, the author steps away from the price levels to which the world is accustomed, and evaluates scientifically. What makes prices jump from one notch to another? The move results from a political or economic shock or the perception of a particular position by the futures market and the media. The shock could range from a war or an assassination to a promise of cooperation among OPEC members (when believed by the market) or to speculation about another failure at an OPEC meeting. In the oil market, only a couple of factual figures can provide a floor to the price of oil. The cost of production of oil in the Gulf is around $2 to $3/bbl, and the cost of production of oil (capital and operating costs) in key non-OPEC areas is well under $10/bbl. With some adjustments for transport and quality, a price range of $13/bbl to $16/bbl would correspond to a reasonable sustainable floor price. The reason for prices above the floor price has been a continuous fear of oil supply interruptions. That fear kept prices above the floor price for many years. The fear factor has now almost fully disappeared. The market has gone through the drama of the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraq war, the tanker war, the invasion of Kuwait, and the expulsions of the Iraqis. And still the oil flowed -- all the time. It has become abundantly clear that fears above the oil market were unjustified. Everyone needs to export oil, and oil will flow under the worst circumstances. The demise of the fear factor means that oil prices tend toward the floor price for a prolonged period

  4. Transfer prices and the excess cost of Canadian oil imports: New evidence on Bertrand versus Rugman

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, J.-T.; Weiner, R.J.

    1992-01-01

    Transfer pricing can be a source for contention between governments and multinational corporations, with suspicion that transfer prices are set so as to report higher income in countries where corporations are taxed more lightly. The first systematic empirical evidence on transfer pricing in multinational corporations is presented, through examination of the Canadian petroleum industry, which is dominated by foreign multinationals. The data cover the period 1974-84 and allow analysis of the allegation of excess cost paid by Canada for crude oil imports. After taking into account crude oil quality indicators, transaction characteristics, and countries of export, the merging of a comparable set of U.S. and Canadian data demonstrates evidence of transfer-price setting at levels significantly different from arm's-length prices for crude oil imports to Canada from 1974-84. However, the evidence runs contrary to Bertrand's assessment: the crude oil prices for affiliate transactions were found to be, in general, lower than comparable prices for third-party transactions. As to transport costs, the converse was found to be the case, however, the effect is much less important than transfer pricing. The overall result is that transfer prices have worked in Canada's favour. 15 refs., 7 tabs

  5. Application of alkaline waterflooding to a high acidity crude oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sayyouh, M.H. (King Sand Univ., Riyadh (SA). Petroleum Engineering Dept.); Abdel-Waly, A.; Osman, A. (Cairo Univ. (EG). Petroleum Engineering Dept.); Awara, A.Z. (Geisum Oil Company, Cairo (EG))

    The enhanced recovery of a high acidity crude oil (South Geisum crude) by alkaline solutions is studied. Acidity, interfacial tension, and contact angle, were investigated. Displacement tests were carried out to study the effect of alkaline slug concentration, slug size, oil alkali type, temperature and viscosity on recovery. The interfacial tension between crude oil and formation water decreases with increasing alkaline concentration until a minimum, after which it increases again. Contact angle measurements indicated oil-wetting conditions that increase by the addition of alkaline solutions. At the early stages of displacement, oil recovery increases with increasing alkaline concentration until a maximum at 4% by weight NaOH concentration. Also, at such early stages, an excessive increase in alkaline concentration results in lower oil recovery. On the other hand, after the injection of many pore volumes of water, oil recovery is almost the same regardless of the alkaline concentration. Oil recovery increases with increasing alkaline slug size until a maximum at 15% PV. Sodium hydroxide slugs produce more oil recovery than sodium carbonate slugs. Oil recovery increases with increasing temperature (from 25 to 55{sup 0}C) and decreasing oil viscosity.

  6. Oil price, biofuels and food supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timilsina, Govinda R.; Mevel, Simon; Shrestha, Ashish

    2011-01-01

    The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels, but this issue has yet to be fully investigated in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65% increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4% in 2020 from 2.4% in 2009. If oil prices rise 150% from their 2009 levels by 2020, the resulting penetration of biofuels would be 9%, which is higher than that would be caused by current mandates and targets introduced in more than forty countries around the world. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through the diversion of food commodities and cropland towards the production of biofuels. - Highlights: ► A global CGE model to analyze impacts of oil price on biofuels and food supply. ► Global biofuel penetration increases from 2.4% (2009) to 5.4% (2020) in baseline. ► A 150% rise of oil price boosts biofuels more than current mandates and targets do. ► Biofuels partially offset drops in agricultural outputs caused by oil price rise. ► Biofuels as well as oil price rise negatively affect global food supply.

  7. The third oil shock: The effects of lower oil prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pearce, J

    1983-01-01

    This book assesses how oil prices have affected other elements of the economy and assesses the costs and benefits that could result from lower oil prices for different groups of countries. The book also analyses the extent of OPEC's influence, the consumers countries' needs for energy security and the altered role of the oil industry.

  8. Enhanced crude oil biodegradation in soil via biostimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Saleh, Esmaeil; Hassan, Ali

    2016-08-02

    Research on feasible methods for the enhancement of bioremediation in soil contaminated by crude oil is vital in oil-exporting countries such as Kuwait, where crude oil is a major pollutant and the environment is hostile to biodegradation. This study investigated the possibility of enhancing crude oil bioremediation by supplementing soil with cost-effective organic materials derived from two widespread locally grown trees, Conocarpus and Tamarix. Amendments in soils increased the counts of soil microbiota by up to 98% and enhanced their activity by up to 95.5%. The increase in the biodegradation of crude oil (75%) and high levels of alkB expression substantiated the efficiency of the proposed amendment technology for the bioremediation of hydrocarbon-contaminated sites. The identification of crude-oil-degrading bacteria revealed the dominance of the genus Microbacterium (39.6%), Sphingopyxis soli (19.3%), and Bordetella petrii (19.6%) in unamended, Conocarpus-amended, and Tamarix-amended contaminated soils, respectively. Although soil amendments favored the growth of Gram-negative bacteria and reduced bacterial diversity, the structures of bacterial communities were not significantly altered.

  9. Dispersed catalysts for transforming extra heavy crude oil into transportable upgraded crude: phase identification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez, S.; Canizales, E.; Machin, I. [Gerencia Depttal de Investigacion Estrategica en Refinacion PDVSA Intevep (Venezuela); Segovia, X.; Rivas, A.; Lopez, E.; Pena, J.P.; Rojas, J.D.; Sardella, R. [Gerencia Depttal de Infraestructura y Mejoramiento en Faja Petrolifera PDVSA Intevep (Venezuela)

    2011-07-01

    A new technology to convert extra heavy crude oil into transportable upgraded crude has been developed. A water/oil emulsion composed of steam and catalyst precursors is introduced in the feed which then generates unsupported dispersed catalyst in situ under thermal decomposition. The aim of this paper is to characterize the particles. The study was conducted in a laboratory and on a pilot scale on three different vacuum residues using high resolution transmission electron microscopy and a transmission electron microscope. Results showed that the particles were formed by oxides and inorganic sulphur based in transition metals and their sizes ranged between 5 and 120 nm; in addition, good dispersion was observed. This study demonstrated that the process involved in the generation of dispersed catalyst is extremely complex and showed that further work with heavy crude oils and its residua is required to understand the mechanisms involved.

  10. Release of Crude Oil from Silica and Calcium Carbonate Surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Xiaoyan; Yan, Wei; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    2016-01-01

    Adsorption and desorption of a North Sea crude oil to silica and calcium carbonate surfaces were studied by a quartz crystal microbalance, while the bare surfaces and adsorbed oil layers were characterized by atomic force microscopy and contact angle measurements. Water contact angles were measured...

  11. Test methods for determining asphaltene stability in crude oils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asomaning, S. [Baker Petrolite, Sugar Land, TX (United States)

    2001-07-01

    The development of test methods for the determination of the stability of asphaltenes in crude oils was rendered necessary, due to the high cost of remediating asphaltene deposition in harsh production environments, namely the underwater systems in offshore deepwater. The Oliensis Spot Test, two saturates, aromatics, resins and asphaltenes (SARA)-based screens (the Colloidal Instability Index and Asphaltene-Resin ratio), a solvent titration method with near infrared radiation (NIR) solids detection, and live oil depressurization were used for the purposes of this study, to predict the stability of asphaltenes in crude oils with different API gravity. A complete description of the test methods was provided, and the experimental data obtained as a result was presented. Correlation with data on the deposition histories of the oils was used to validate the experimental stability data. The author discussed the effectiveness of the different tests for the prediction of the stability of asphaltenes in crude oils. The prediction of a crude oil's propensity towards asphaltene precipitation was more accurate with the Colloidal Instability Index and the solvent titration method. Live oil depressurization proved to be very effective for the prediction of the stability of asphaltenes for light oils, where most stability tests fail. tabs., 31 figs.

  12. New insights into oxidation behaviours of crude oils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, J.; Mehta, S.A.; Moore, R.G. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Innovative technologies will be needed to develop many of the world's oil reservoirs in an economically sustainable manner. In recent years, air injection for light oil reservoirs has gained recognition as an Improved Oil Recovery (IOR) process. In this process, the oxygen from the injected air reacts with a small fraction of the reservoir oil at high temperature to produce a mixture of carbon dioxide and nitrogen. The produced gas generated by the reaction mobilizes the oil downstream, thereby sweeping oil towards the production wells. High pressure air injection used in light oil reservoirs differs from the process used in heavy oil reservoirs, despite the fact that various oxidation reaction schemes exist. The key challenge facing the air injection process is the complexity of the oxidation reaction for crude oil and the lack of understanding of the oxidation behavior of light oils. This study identified a range of oxidation behaviors between light oil and heavy oil. The relationship between crude oil composition and its oxidation behaviors was also examined with reference to 3 different oils and their SARA (saturates, aromatics, resins and asphaltenes) fractions. This study was carried out at various pressures and temperatures using thermogravimetry and pressurized differential scanning calorimetry (PDSC) as the thermal analysis techniques.

  13. Heavy oil supply economics and supply response to low oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, L.

    1999-01-01

    The dynamics of the heavy oil industry are examined, including prices, market demand, supply and supply costs. Price assumptions are provided for the reference case oil price (west Texas intermediate at Cushing). Supply cost methodology is explained. Capital and operating costs for various heavy oil and synthetic sources are derived from modeling results. The range of supply costs for heavy oil and bitumen from various sources, supply costs in terms of reference case market values and in terms of 1995-1996 average market values for Bow River crude, are derived. The CERI long term supply forecast model is explained. Western Canada upstream oil and gas cash flow and capital expenditures, eastern Canada exploration and expenditures by hydrocarbon type, and Canadian heavy oil and bitumen production based on reference case prices are estimated. Based on these projections the outlook for heavy oil at reference case prices for better than average quality resources is judged to be economic. Lower quality resources will require technology gains for successful commercialization. SAGD is a likely candidate in this respect. Again based on reference prices, production is forecast to decline by 100 Kb/d over the next five years. Diluent supply is considered to be adequate throughout the forecast period. As far as thermal bitumen is concerned, the growth could, in fact, exceed the projection, but if so, more upgrading will be required. 11 figs

  14. US crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This report presents estimates of proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as of December 31, 1991, as well as production volumes for the United States, and selected States and State subdivisions for the year 1991. Estimates are presented for the following four categories of natural gas: total gas (wet after lease separation), its two major components (nonassociated and associated-dissolved gas), and total dry gas (wet gas adjusted for the removal of liquids at natural gas processing plants). In addition, two components of natural gas liquids, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids, have their reserves and production data presented. Also included is information on indicated additional crude oil reserves and crude oil, natural gas, and lease condensate reserves in nonproducing reservoirs. A discussion of notable oil and gas exploration and development activities during 1991 is also presented

  15. Biodegradation of crude oil in different types of marine sediment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hii, Y.S.; Law, A.T.

    1999-01-01

    An active oil-oxidizing bacterium, named Nap C was isolated from the sediment sample of Port Dickson coastal area for this study. Nap C is a gram negative, rod shape marine bacterium. It forms spore when the condition is not favorable. Three different types of treated marine sediment; sand, silt and clay were used in this study. The degradation of Malaysian Tapis A crude oil in the different types of marine sediment were assessed. Silt type of marine sediment was found to sustain highest biodegradation compared to clay type and sand type. 8.6.67% of the Malaysian Tapis A crude oil was degraded in silt type of marine sediment within 10 days of incubation. Where as there were only 60% and 73% of the Malaysian Tapis A crude oil was degraded in sand and clay type of marine sediment respectively. Microbial biomass estimation in the sediment was estimated by indirect phospholipid enumeration technique. (author)

  16. Characteristics of bicyclic sesquiterpanes in crude oils and petroleum products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chun; Wang, Zhendi; Hollebone, Bruce P; Brown, Carl E; Landriault, Mike

    2009-05-15

    This study presents a quantitative gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis of bicyclic sesquiterpanes (BSs) in numerous crude oils and refined petroleum products including light and mid-range distillate fuels, residual fuels, and lubricating oils collected from various sources. Ten commonly recognized bicyclic sesquiterpanes were determined in all the studied crude oils and diesel range fuels with principal dominance of BS3 (C(15)H(28)), BS5 (C(15)H(28)) and BS10 (C(16)H(30)), while they were generally not detected or in trace in light fuel oils like gasoline and kerosene and most lubricating oils. Laboratory distillation of crude oils demonstrated that sesquiterpanes were highly enriched in the medium distillation fractions of approximately 180 to 481 degrees C and were generally absent or very low in the light distillation fraction (boiling point to approximately 180 degrees C) and the heavy residual fraction (>481 degrees C). The effect of evaporative weathering on a series of diagnostic ratios of sesquiterpanes, n-alkanes, and biomarkers was evaluated with two suites of weathered oil samples. The change of abundance of sesquiterpanes was used to determine the extent of weathering of artificially evaporated crude oils and diesel. In addition to the pentacyclic biomarker C(29) and C(30) alphabeta-hopane, C(15) and C(16) sesquiterpanes might be alternative internal marker compounds to provide a direct way to estimate the depletion of oils, particularly diesels, in oil spill investigations. These findings may offer potential applications for both oil identification and oil-source correlation in cases where the tri- to pentacyclic biomarkers are absent due to refining or environmental weathering of oils.

  17. The economic consequences of oil price rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lescaroux, Francois

    2006-05-01

    The author discusses the possible consequences of oil barrel price rise. First, he discusses the main results of analysis's which have been performed for thirty years regarding the impact of oil price on economical activity. He proposes interpretations of these studies and of their conclusions, and tries to draw lessons regarding effects which can be expected from the recent evolutions of energy markets

  18. Heavy crude oils - From Geology to Upgrading - An Overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huc, A.Y.

    2010-01-01

    Heavy oils, extra-heavy oils and tar sands are major players for the future of energy. They represent a massive world resource, at least the size of conventional oils. They are found all over the world but Canada and Venezuela together account, by themselves, for more than half of world deposits. They share the same origin as the lighter conventional oils, but their geological fate drove them into thick, viscous tar-like crude oils. Most of them result from alteration processes mediated by microbial degradation. They are characterized by a low content of lighter cuts and a high content of impurities such as sulfur and nitrogen compounds and metals; so, their production is difficult and deployment of specific processes is required in order to enhance their transportability and to upgrade them into valuable products meeting market needs, and honouring environmental requirements. Although these resources are increasingly becoming commercially producible, less than 1% of total heavy crude oil deposits worldwide are under active development. The voluntarily wide scope of this volume encompasses geology, production, transportation, upgrading, economics and environmental issues of heavy oils. It does not pretend to be exhaustive, but to provide an authoritative view of this very important energy resource. Besides presenting the current status of knowledge and technology involved in exploiting heavy oils, the purpose is to provide an insight into technical, economic and environmental challenges that should be taken up in order to increase the efficiency of production and processing, and finally to give a prospective view of the emerging technologies which will contribute to releasing the immense potential reserves of heavy oil and tar deposits. Contents: Part 1. Heavy Crude Oils.1. Heavy Crude Oils in the Perspective of World Oil Demand. 2. Definitions and Specificities. 3. Geological Origin of Heavy Crude Oils. 4. Properties and composition. Part 2. Reservoir Engineering

  19. The impact of oil price volatility on the future of the U.S. economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, Roy; Doroodian, K.; Thornton, Dennis

    2000-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of a foreign oil price shock on domestic energy markets as well as the U.S. economy as a whole. The analytical approach employed in the analysis consisted of a dynamic CGE model composed of eight production sectors, eight consumption sectors, three household categories classified by income, foreign sector, and the government. The results show that oil price shocks will have, as expected, a significantly positive effect on crude oil production. We also find that such price shocks negatively affect the refinery sector as input costs rise there. A decline in per-well productivity has the effect of dampening the rise in crude oil extraction and causing a further decline in refinery output. Economy-wide, the impact of a new series of oil price shocks is quite limited with overall welfare falling, but nowhere near the levels experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s. (Author)

  20. Investor herds and oil prices evidence in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC equity markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Talat Ulussever

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper scrutinizes the effect of crude oil prices on herd behavior among investors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC stock markets. Using firm level data from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock exchanges, we examine equity return dispersions within industry portfolios and test whether investor herds exist in these markets. We then assess whether crude oil price movements have any effect on the investment behavior of traders in the aforementioned markets. Our findings reveal significant evidence supporting herd behavior in all GCC equity markets with the exception of Oman and Qatar, more consistently during periods of market losses. Furthermore, we find significant oil price effects on herd behavior in these markets, particularly during periods of extreme positive changes in the price of oil. Our findings suggest that investors’ tendency to act as a herd in the said markets is significantly affected by the developments in the oil market.

  1. Oil prices: The role of refinery utilization, futures markets and non-linearities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Mann, Michael; Dees, Stephane; Gasteuil, Audrey

    2008-01-01

    We test the hypothesis that real oil prices are determined in part by refinery capacity, non-linearities in supply conditions, and/or expectations and that observed changes in these variables can account for the rise in prices between 2004 and 2006. Results indicate that the refining sector plays an important role in the recent price increase, but not in the way described by many analysts. The relationship is negative such that higher refinery utilization rates reduce crude oil prices. This effect is associated with shifts in the production of heavy and light grades of crude oil and price spreads between them. Non-linear relationships between OPEC capacity and oil prices as well as conditions on the futures markets also account for changes in real oil prices. Together, these factors allow the model to generate a one-step ahead out-of-sample forecast that performs as well as forecasts implied by far-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange and is able to account for much of the $27 rise in crude oil prices between 2004 and 2006. (author)

  2. Are high oil prices a threat for the price stability?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mollerus, A.

    2000-01-01

    The high price for oil and the decreased value of the Euro increase the risks for the stability of prices. Still, the prospects for inflation are favorable for the Euro zone. Less favorable are the consequences for the Netherlands, while the inflation difference with the Euro zone appears to become bigger, in particular as a result of the new Tax regulations in the Netherlands

  3. The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Lin; Zhang, Xun; Wang, Shouyang; Xu, Shanying

    2016-01-01

    Crude oil price shocks derive from many sources, each of which may bring about different effects on macro-economy variables and require completely different designs in macro-economic policy; thus, distinguishing the sources of oil price fluctuations is crucial when evaluating these effects. This paper establishes an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with two economies: China and the rest of the world. To assess the effects of oil price shocks, the CES production function is extended by adding oil as an input. Based on the model, the effects of four types of oil price fluctuations are evaluated. The four types of oil price shocks are supply shocks driven by political events in OPEC countries, other oil supply shocks, aggregate shocks to the demand for industrial commodities, and demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. Simulation results indicate the following: Oil supply shocks driven by political events mainly produce short-term effects on China's output and inflation, while the other three shocks produce relatively long-term effects; in addition, demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market contribute the most to the fluctuations in China's output and inflation.

  4. Drawing a Roadmap for Oil Pricing Reform

    OpenAIRE

    Kojima, Masami

    2013-01-01

    In 2011, the median oil imports rose to 5 percent of gross domestic product for net importers. In the past several years, many governments have not passed through the world oil price increases to consumers fully. As a sign of divergent pricing policies, the retail prices of gasoline, diesel, and cooking gas in January 2013 varied by a factor of 190, 250, and 70, respectively, across develo...

  5. Basic properties of crude rubber seed oil and crude palm oil blend as a potential feedstock for biodiesel production with enhanced cold flow characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yusup, Suzana; Khan, Modhar

    2010-01-01

    Research and development in the field of biodiesel showed that fatty acid methyl esters synthesized from agriculture or animal oils and fats, which exhibit qualifying properties, can replace diesel fuel used in internal combustion engine. However, the industry had some downfall recently with the fluctuating prices of edible oils and increasing demand for nutritional needs. Crude rubber seed oil (CRSO) and crude palm oil (CPO) were used in this study since both can be extracted and produced locally in Malaysia from their abundant plantations. The benefits of introducing such blend are that CRSO is considered a non-edible feedstock with no major industrial utilizations that has the potential to reduce the usage of CPO in biodiesel industry and was found to enhance the cold flow characteristics when blended with CPO by reducing the saturated fatty acids in the feedstock. The oils and blends were characterized for density, kinematic viscosity, heating value, acid value, free fatty acid content, refractive index, mono-, di- and triglycerides and sulphur content. Fatty acids composition and iodine value were established for an equivolume blend of the oils.

  6. Basic properties of crude rubber seed oil and crude palm oil blend as a potential feedstock for biodiesel production with enhanced cold flow characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yusup, Suzana; Khan, Modhar [Chemical Engineering Department, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Bandar Seri Iskandar, 31750 Tronoh, Perak (Malaysia)

    2010-10-15

    Research and development in the field of biodiesel showed that fatty acid methyl esters synthesized from agriculture or animal oils and fats, which exhibit qualifying properties, can replace diesel fuel used in internal combustion engine. However, the industry had some downfall recently with the fluctuating prices of edible oils and increasing demand for nutritional needs. Crude rubber seed oil (CRSO) and crude palm oil (CPO) were used in this study since both can be extracted and produced locally in Malaysia from their abundant plantations. The benefits of introducing such blend are that CRSO is considered a non-edible feedstock with no major industrial utilizations that has the potential to reduce the usage of CPO in biodiesel industry and was found to enhance the cold flow characteristics when blended with CPO by reducing the saturated fatty acids in the feedstock. The oils and blends were characterized for density, kinematic viscosity, heating value, acid value, free fatty acid content, refractive index, mono-, di- and triglycerides and sulphur content. Fatty acids composition and iodine value were established for an equivolume blend of the oils. (author)

  7. Isolation and identification of an ester from a crude oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, H.F.; Breger, I.A.

    1958-01-01

    A dioctylphthalate has been isolated from a crude oil by means of adsorption column chromatography. The ester was identified by means of elemental analysis, refractive index, and its infra-red absorption spectrum. Saponification of the isolate and examination of the resultant alcohol by means of infrared absorption spectra led to the conclusion that the ester is a branched chain dioctylphthalate. This is the first reported occurrence of an ester in crude petroleum. ?? 1958.

  8. On the link between oil and commodity prices: a panel VAR approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremond, Vincent; Hache, Emmanuel; Joets, Marc

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the relationships between the price of oil and a large dataset of commodity prices, relying on panel data settings. Using second generation panel co-integration tests, our findings show that the WTI and commodity prices are not linked in the long term. Nevertheless, considering our results in causality tests, we show that short-run relations exist, mainly from the price of crude oil to commodity prices. We thus implement a panel VAR estimation with an impulse response function analysis. Two main conclusions emerge: (i) fast co-movements are highlighted, while (ii) market efficiency is emphasized. (authors)

  9. Review of Alberta Crown Crude Oil Marketing Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crandall, G. R.; Kromm, R. B.

    1999-01-01

    This report contains an independent evaluation of the operations of the private marketing agents that are currently marketing the Alberta Crown's share of royalty crude oil. The evaluation includes a review of pricing performance, working relationship, current issues and the overall performance of the marketing arrangements during the fiscal years of 1997 and 1998. Overall, the outsourcing of sales of Crown production to agents is judged to be successful. For example, it has been noted that agents are becoming more aggressive in maintaining and increasing their margins. On the other hand, the increased level of aggressiveness in marketing, while tending to maximize Crown revenues, is also creating a potential conflict on how margins should be shared between the Crown and its agents. Also, there has been evidence of some management issues between the agents and the Crown concerning the extent to which the Crown should share in any increased value which the agent generates by increased third party marketing activities. These differences need to be addressed in order to maintain the strong performance of the marketing program. The consultants also recommend additional guidelines on risk management issues that more clearly define the Crown's risk tolerance. 2 tabs., 4 figs

  10. The Factors Influencing on Consumption of Palm Cooking Oil in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ermy Teti

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Cooking oil is one of the most sensitive basic needs in Indonesia. The aims of the researchare to analyze factors influencing consumption of cooking oil, the cooking oil price, and theCrude Palm Oil price in Indonesia. Using simultaneous equation model, the study show thatpalm cooking oil consumption is significantly affected by domestic palm cooking oil priceand number of population. Whilst palm cooking oil price is significantly influenced by thecooking palm oil production and the domestic Crude Palm Oil price. Finally, the domesticCrude Palm Oil is significantly affected by international Crude Palm Oil price.Keywords: consumption, cooking oil price, crude palm oil price and cooking oil

  11. Effect of subsidies to fossil fuel companies on United States crude oil production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Peter; Down, Adrian; Lazarus, Michael; Koplow, Doug

    2017-11-01

    Countries in the G20 have committed to phase out `inefficient' fossil fuel subsidies. However, there remains a limited understanding of how subsidy removal would affect fossil fuel investment returns and production, particularly for subsidies to producers. Here, we assess the impact of major federal and state subsidies on US crude oil producers. We find that, at recent oil prices of US50 per barrel, tax preferences and other subsidies push nearly half of new, yet-to-be-developed oil investments into profitability, potentially increasing US oil production by 17 billion barrels over the next few decades. This oil, equivalent to 6 billion tonnes of CO2, could make up as much as 20% of US oil production through 2050 under a carbon budget aimed at limiting warming to 2 °C. Our findings show that removal of tax incentives and other fossil fuel support policies could both fulfil G20 commitments and yield climate benefits.

  12. Modelling oil price volatility with structural breaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salisu, Afees A.; Fasanya, Ismail O.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we provide two main innovations: (i) we analyze oil prices of two prominent markets namely West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent using the two recently developed tests by Narayan and Popp (2010) and Liu and Narayan, 2010 both of which allow for two structural breaks in the data series; and (ii) the latter method is modified to include both symmetric and asymmetric volatility models. We identify two structural breaks that occur in 1990 and 2008 which coincidentally correspond to the Iraqi/Kuwait conflict and the global financial crisis, respectively. We find evidence of persistence and leverage effects in the oil price volatility. While further extensions can be pursued, the consideration of asymmetric effects as well as structural breaks should not be jettisoned when modelling oil price volatility. - Highlights: ► We analyze oil price volatility using NP (2010) and LN (2010) tests. ► We modify the LN (2010) to account for leverage effects in oil price. ► We find two structural breaks that reflect major global crisis in the oil market. ► We find evidence of persistence and leverage effects in oil price volatility. ► Leverage effects and structural breaks are fundamental in oil price modelling.

  13. Oil price pass-through into inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Shiu-Sheng

    2009-01-01

    This paper uses data from 19 industrialized countries to investigate oil price pass-through into inflation across countries and over time. A time-varying pass-through coefficient is estimated and the determinants of the recent declining effects of oil shocks on inflation are investigated. The appreciation of the domestic currency, a more active monetary policy in response to inflation, and a higher degree of trade openness are found to explain the decline in oil price pass-through. (author)

  14. Canadian heavy crude oil and bitumen: Some new and old ideas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, G.R.

    1992-01-01

    Canadian conventional heavy oil and bitumen production has been steadily increasing over the last five years. This rise is forecast to continue under modest future crude oil pricing assumptions. During 1990 and 1991, the heavy oil market suffered from wide pricing differentials relative to light crude due to market reductions in Montreal and a feedstock shift at Uno-Ven's Chicago refinery, as well as an increase in the percentage of heavy in the world crude oil supply because of the Iraqi war. These have been offset by price-related bitumen production cuts and minor refinery capacity growth at other locations. The industry is poised for positive change with modest but stable prices and reduced light-heavy differentials caused, in part, by anticipated market expansion due to the June start-up of the Conco coker (50,000 bbl/d) in Montana and the anticipated late fall start up of the Bi-Provincial Upgrader in Saskatchewan (50,000 bbl/d blend). For the future, refinery upgrading and new grass roots refinery additions are suggested for western Canada. Associated transportation savings and condensate blending stock costs are two areas of advantage. Taken together with environmental problems in other densely populated market areas, it makes sense to build new heavy processing capacity near Edmonton but only after all current capacity is debottlenecked and inexpensive additions to current facilities are completed. New capacity will only be built when the heavy/light price differential on feed stock provides economic justification. 11 refs., 2 tabs

  15. Identification of CYP1A inducing compounds in crude oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khan, C.W.; Hodson, P.V. [Queen' s Univ., Kingston, ON (Canada). Dept. of Biology; Hollebone, B.P.; Wang, Z. [Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Environmental Technology Advancement Directorate; Brown, R.S. [Queen' s Univ., Kingston, ON (Canada). Dept. of Chemistry

    2004-07-01

    One of the major sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in aquatic ecosystems is crude oil. PAHs are responsible for developmental malformations in the early life stages of fish. The induction of CYP1A enzyme is characteristic of developmental toxicity caused by crude oil. As such, it is an effective biomarker of PAH uptake. It is not known which PAHs cause toxicity because of the complex chemical composition of crude oil. In this study, an approach called Toxicity Identification and Evaluation (TIE) was used with different crude oils to separate bioavailable PAHs into petroleum sub-fractions. The extent of CYP1A induction in rainbow trout was measured after 48 hour exposures to each fraction. Low temperature vacuum distillation was used to create white gas, kerosene, coal tar/bitumen and wax fractions. Hepatic CYP1A activity was induced by whole oil and some fractions. The highest PAH concentration was found in the coal tar/bitumen fraction which accounted for most CYP1A induction in whole oil. The wax fraction also caused moderate CYP1A induction, but the white gas fraction did not cause any CYP1A induction. The hypothesis that alkyl PAH may be the most significant source of CYP1A inducers in the coal tar/bitumen fraction was supported by chemical analysis of CYP1A induction potency. Results showed that benzo[a]pyrene accounts for nearly all of the CYP1A induction caused by the wax fraction.

  16. Early warning model based on correlated networks in global crude oil markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jia-Wei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

    2018-01-01

    Applying network tools on predicting and warning the systemic risks provides a novel avenue to manage risks in financial markets. Here, we construct a series of global crude oil correlated networks based on the historical 57 oil prices covering a period from 1993 to 2012. Two systemic risk indicators are constructed based on the density and modularity of correlated networks. The local maximums of the risk indicators are found to have the ability to predict the trends of oil prices. In our sample periods, the indicator based on the network density sends five signals and the indicator based on the modularity index sends four signals. The four signals sent by both indicators are able to warn the drop of future oil prices and the signal only sent by the network density is followed by a huge rise of oil prices. Our results deepen the application of network measures on building early warning models of systemic risks and can be applied to predict the trends of future prices in financial markets.

  17. DEVELOPMENT OF TIGHT OIL RESOURCES IN USA: PROFITABILITY OF EXPLOITATION AND EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN VOLATILE OIL PRICE ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Strpić

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Large scale development of tight oil resources in US started after 2010. with following five-year period of favorable steady increase in crude oil price. During this relatively short expansion cycle, operating and capital expenses changed drastically for main tight oil plays due to technological improvements in both well drilling and completion, expansion of service sector as well as loose government monetary policy which allowed favorable financing. This paper analyzed trends in costs during expansion period, as well as correlation of oil price to number of operating rigs and production quotas. After 2008/2009. world financial crisis economy recovery in US was somewhat sluggish and it caused extreme volatile environment in both equity and commodity markets. In such volatile environment intra-day crude oil prices, as well as other commodities and equities, show significant reaction to monthly published macroeconomic indicator reports, which give better overviews of trends in economic recovery. Prior to announcement, these reports always have forecasted value determined by consensus among market analysts. Therefore, any positive or negative surprise in real value tends to influence price of oil. This paper investigated influence of such macroeconomic reports to closing intraday oil price, as well as effect of other important daily market indices. Analysis showed that only Producer Price Index (PPI, among other indicators, has statistical significance of affecting intraday closing oil price.

  18. In-Situ Burning of Crude Oil on Water

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Gelderen, Laurens

    in the small scale water basin. Boilovers were also observed during the burning of a heavy crude oil with a substantial light fraction without a water layer, however, which suggests that water is not essential for boilover occurrence. Further studies are required to determine the conditions under which......The fire dynamics and fire chemistry of in-situ burning of crude oil on water was studied in order to improve predictions on the suitability of this oil spill response method. For this purpose, several operational parameters were studied to determine the factors that control the burning efficiency...... of in-situ burning, i.e. the amount of oil (in wt%) removed from the water surface by the burning process. The burning efficiency is the main parameter for expressing the oil removal effectiveness of in-situ burning as response method and is thus relevant for suitability predictions of in-situ burning...

  19. Not on behalf of the crude oil; No en nombre del petroleo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maugeri, Leonardo [Empresa Energetica, ENI (Italy)

    2003-07-15

    There are two major myths linked to the current concept of the crude oil: the lack of crude oil and the security related to energy. The government authorities should realize that it is necessary to expect some oil price volatility. They should also focus on boosting better supply habits and on having more realistic public expectations and healthier policies for Middle East. [Spanish] En el pensamiento actual sobre el petroleo se destacan dos mitos: la escasez del petroleo y la seguridad en materia de energeticos. Los gobernantes deben darse cuenta de que hay que esperar cierta volatilidad en los precios del petroleo y concentrarse en promover mejores habitos de consumo, expectativas publicas mas realistas y politicas mas sanas para Medio Oriente.

  20. The impact of environmental regulations on United States crude oil supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godec, M.L.; Biglarbigi, K.

    1991-01-01

    A number of legislative and regulatory initiatives being considered to protect the environment could affect the economics of oil and gas exploration and production (E and P) in the Unites States. This paper summarizes the results of a comprehensive assessment of the potential cumulative energy and economic impacts of environmental regulatory initiatives on United States crude oil supplies. The results of the analysis clearly will determine the level of impact, but the results show that significant impacts are felt over a wide range of regulations, over a wide range of crude oil prices, and at two levels of development for extraction technologies. The regulations evaluated all have an impact on all resource categories analyzed in the study

  1. Liquid ultrasonic flow meters for crude oil measurement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalivoda, Raymond J.; Lunde, Per

    2005-07-01

    Liquid ultrasonic flow meters (LUFMs) are gaining popularity for the accurate measurement of petroleum products. In North America the first edition of the API standard ''Measurement of liquid hydrocarbons by ultrasonic flow meters using transit time technology'' was issued in February 2005. It addresses both refined petroleum products and crude oil applications. Its field of application is mainly custody transfer applications but it does provide general guidelines for the installation and operation of LUFM's other applications such as allocation, check meters and leak detection. As with all new technologies performance claims are at times exaggerated or misunderstood and application knowledge is limited. Since ultrasonic meters have no moving parts they appear to have fewer limitations than other liquid flow meters. Liquids ultrasonic flow meters, like turbine meters, are sensitive to fluid properties. It is increasingly more difficult to apply on high viscosity products then on lighter hydrocarbon products. Therefore application data or experience on the measurement of refined or light crude oil may not necessarily be transferred to measuring medium to heavy crude oils. Before better and more quantitative knowledge is available on how LUFMs react on different fluids, the arguments advocating reduced need for in-situ proving and increased dependency on laboratory flow calibration (e.g. using water instead of hydrocarbons) may be questionable. The present paper explores the accurate measurement of crude oil with liquid ultrasonic meters. It defines the unique characteristics of the different API grades of crude oils and how they can affect the accuracy of the liquid ultrasonic measurement. Flow testing results using a new LUFM design are discussed. The paper is intended to provide increased insight into the potentials and limitations of crude oil measurement using ultrasonic flow meters. (author) (tk)

  2. China on the move: Oil price explosion?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skeer, Jeffrey; Wang Yanjia

    2007-01-01

    Rapid expansion of highway and jet traffic in China has created a surge of demand for oil products, putting pressure on world energy markets and petroleum product prices. This paper examines trends in freight and passenger traffic to assess how growth in China's transport demand relates to growth in China's economy, as well as the energy intensity of transport. Based on assumptions about demand elasticity and energy intensity, a range of scenarios is developed for China's oil demand through 2020. Incremental oil demand from China's transport sector is then compared with world oil demand projections to assess the likely impact on world oil prices. The finding is that new demand from China's transport sector would likely raise world oil prices in 2020 by 1-3% in reference scenarios or by 3-10% if oil supply investment is constrained

  3. Oil Price Forecasting Using Crack Spread Futures and Oil Exchange Traded Funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hankyeung Choi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Given the emerging consensus from previous studies that crude oil and refined product (as well as crack spread prices are cointegrated, this study examines the link between the crude oil spot and crack spread derivatives markets. Specifically, the usefulness of the two crack spread derivatives products (namely, crack spread futures and the ETF crack spread for modeling and forecasting daily OPEC crude oil spot prices is evaluated. Based on the results of a structural break test, the sample is divided into pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. We find a unidirectional relationship from the two crack spread derivatives markets to the crude oil spot market during the post-crisis period. In terms of forecasting performance, the forecasting models based on crack spread futures and the ETF crack spread outperform the Random Walk Model (RWM, both in-sample and out-of-sample. In addition, on average, the results suggest that information from the ETF crack spread market contributes more to the forecasting models than information from the crack spread futures market.

  4. Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youngho Chang; Joonfong Wong

    2003-01-01

    This study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy is marginal. Both impulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to believe that the impact only had an insignificant adverse effect on Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and unemployment rates. Further analysis on two oil vulnerability measures supports the finding: the declining trend of oil intensity in Singapore since 1989 and the declining shares of the Singapore's expenditure on oil consumption as a percentage of its nominal GDP. This study identifies, however, that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy should not be considered negligible even though it is small. (Author)

  5. Oil price fluctuations and Singapore economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang Youngho; Wong, Joon Fong

    2003-01-01

    This study finds that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy is marginal. Both impulse response and variance decomposition analysis provide reasonable grounds to believe that the impact only had an insignificant adverse effect on Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and unemployment rates. Further analysis on two oil vulnerability measures supports the finding: the declining trend of oil intensity in Singapore since 1989 and the declining shares of the Singapore's expenditure on oil consumption as a percentage of its nominal GDP. This study identifies, however, that the impact of an oil price shock on the Singapore economy should not be considered negligible even though it is small

  6. Imported resources - oil crude oil processing in the Czech Republic and its prospectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soucek, I.; Ottis, I. [Kaucuk, Kralupy nad Vitavou (Czechoslovakia)

    1995-12-01

    This paper examines the availability of various crude oils, addressing specifically crude oil pipelines to the Czech Republic, both existing and under construction. Secondly, the economic status of two main Czech refineries is examined in comparison to international trends, technical configurations, and product supply and demand.

  7. The influence of magnetic fields on crude oils viscosity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goncalves, Jose L.; Bombard, Antonio J. F. [Universidade Federal de Itajuba (UNIFEI), Itajuba, MG (Brazil). Instituto de Ciencias Exatas. Lab. de Reologia

    2009-07-01

    The crystallization of paraffin causes serious problems in the process of transportation of petroleum. This phenomenon increases the crude oil viscosity and implies an organic resin accumulation on pipeline wall, resulting in a reduced flux area or totally blocked pipes. One of the most challenging tasks for pipeline maintenance is solving this problem at low cost. Therefore, a method that inhibits the crystallization of paraffin and reduces the viscosity of crude oil could have many useful applications within the petroleum industry. Recent studies showed that magnetic fields reduce the Wax Appearance Temperature (WAT) and the viscosity of paraffin-based crude oil. For better understanding of this discovery, a series of tests was performed. This paper will show the influence of a DC magnetic field on rheological proprieties of three crude oils with different paraffin concentrations: a crude oil sample with 11 % p/p of paraffin concentration (sample 1); a crude oil sample with 6 % p/p of paraffin concentration (sample 2); a mixture of paraffin plus light crude oil with a total of 11 % p/p of paraffin concentration. These samples were placed in an electromagnet that generates a magnetic field of 1.3 Tesla. The samples' temperatures were conditioned around their Wax Appearance Temperature (WAT), and they were exposed to the field. As the viscosity of crude oil is very sensitive to the changes in temperature, it was ensured that the temperature has remained constant throughout the process. The sample 1 revealed a considerable reduction of viscosity: its original viscosity was 66 cP before magnetic field exposure, after that its viscosity was reduced to 39 cP. The other samples showed the same viscosity, before and after the magnetic field exposure. Since the samples 1 and 3 have the same paraffin concentrations, the viscosity reduction is not due only to the presence of paraffin; there must be other factors responsible for the interaction of sample 1 with the

  8. The oil price; Le prix du petrole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alba, P. [Institut Francais du Petrole (IFP), 92 - Rueil-Malmaison (France)

    2000-05-01

    Statistical analysis cannot, alone, provide an oil price forecast. So, one needs to understand the fundamental phenomena which control the past trends since the end of world war II After a first period during which oil, thanks to its abundance, was able to increase its market share at the expense of other energies, the first oil shock reflects the rarefaction of oil resource with the tilting of the US production curve from growth to decline. Since then, the new situation is that of a ''cohabitation'' between oil and the other energies with the oil price, extremely volatile, reflecting the trial and error adjustment of the market share left to the other energies. Such a context may explain the recent oil price surge but the analogy between the US oil situation at the time of the first shock and that existing today for the world outside Middle East suggest another possibility, that of a structural change with higher future oil prices. The authors examine these two possibilities, think that the oil price will reflect both as long as one or the other will not become proven, and conclude with a series of political recommendations. (authors)

  9. The Effects of High and Volatile Oil Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artus, Patrick; Autume, Antoine d'; Chalmin, Philippe; Chevalier, Jean-Marie; Coeure, Benoit; Kalantizs, Yannick; Klein, Caroline; Guesnerie, Roger; Callonnec, Gael; Gaudin, Thomas; Moisan, Francois; Lescaroux, Francois; Clerc, Marie; Marcus, Vincent; Lalanne, Guy; Pouliquen, Erwan; Simon, Olivier; Mignon, Valerie

    2010-01-01

    Forecasting work carried out by a number of institutions shows how difficult it is to accurately predict trends in oil prices. The authors of this report do not carry out this forecasting exercise, but they share the same conclusions about the main features of oil price trends in the near and medium term: a rise in oil prices is inevitable, and will be accompanied by significant volatility. This expectation is based on detailed analysis of oil price determinants, their past variations and forecasts as to their future trends. On the supply side, like with all goods, the price of oil reflects production costs: extraction, transport and refining costs. Alongside this essentially technological component, more specific determinants are at play: the noncompetitive economic rent, which largely stems from OPEC's hold on the market, the scarcity rent on all non-renewable natural resources (this rent increases at a rate equal to the real interest rate according to Hotelling's rule), various taxes (mainly the TIPP domestic tax on oil products in France) and a new component that is set to gain importance in the years ahead, namely the implicit price of carbon emissions (which may take the form of a carbon tax or the cost of emission permits). It is difficult to isolate these different components and even more difficult to quantify them, but the authors' detailed analysis shows that most predictable supply-side developments will concur to bring about a rise in oil prices. On the demand side, too, forecasts and projections converge towards a rise in oil prices. Demand trends depend on crude oil prices, taxes, economic growth and energy and environmental policies. In most developed countries, the trend is towards a slowdown in demand growth and some countries are even seeing a decline in demand. In addition to the economic crisis, two explanations are put forward. The levels reached by crude oil and fuel prices in July 2008 clearly brought the price-elasticity of

  10. Breakthrough Adsorption Study of Crude Oil Removal Using Buffing Dust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setyaningsih, L. W. N.; Yuliansyah, A. T.; Prasetyo, A.; Arimanintan, S. K.; Putri, D. R.

    2018-05-01

    The utilization of leather industry solid waste as adsorbent to separate oil from water emulsions of surfactant flooding process is a solution that is relatively inexpensive. This study was conducted aiming to obtain a mathematical model that is appropriate for the adsorption process of crude oil by buffing dust in emulsion phase with a continuous adsorption method. Variations in the column adsorption experiments were carried out, such as: flow rate of feed of water-crude oil-surfactant, the concentration of crude oil in the feed, and mass of adsorbent used. Data were evaluated using three models: Adams Bohart, Thomas and Yan. Best results are obtained on the following conditions, the feed flow rate of 60 mL/minute, the crude oil concentration in feed is 1.5% volume and the mass of adsorbent used was 10 g. The values of kinetic constant and adsorption capacity obtained from Yan Model was 21.7774 mL/mg/minute and 220.9581 mg/g with the relative error obtained is 5.4424%.

  11. Seahorse (Hippocampus reidi) as a bioindicator of crude oil exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delunardo, Frederico Augusto Cariello; de Carvalho, Luciano Rodrigues; da Silva, Bruno Ferreira; Galão, Michel; Val, Adalberto Luís; Chippari-Gomes, Adriana R

    2015-07-01

    This study explored the suitability of the seahorse Hippocampus reidi (Ginsburg, 1933) for assessing biomarkers of genotoxic effects and its use as a sentinel organism to detect the effects of acute exposure to petroleum hydrocarbons. Fish were exposed to three concentrations of crude oil (10, 20 and 30 g/kg) for 96 h, and the activity of phase II biotransformation enzyme glutathione S-transferase (GST) was measured. In addition, we performed genotoxicity assays, such as comet assay, micronucleus (MN) test and nuclear abnormalities (NA) induction, on the erythrocytes of the fish species. Our results revealed that the inhibition of hepatic GST activity in H. reidi was dependent on increasing crude oil concentrations. In contrast, an increase in the damage index (DI) and MN frequency were observed with increased crude oil concentrations. These results indicate that the alkaline comet assay and micronucleus test were suitable and useful in the evaluation of the genotoxicity of crude oil, which could improve determinations of the impact of oil spills on fish populations. In addition, H. reidi is a promising "sentinel organism" to detect the genotoxic impact of petroleum hydrocarbons. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Canadian crude oil production and supply forecast 2006-2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-05-01

    In order to enable members to plan for pipeline capacity requirements for transporting Canadian crude oil to markets, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) 2006-2020 crude oil production and supply forecast provides a long-range outlook of Canadian crude oil production. It provides a forecast of supply and demand for both western and eastern Canada. Because offshore eastern oil production does not rely on pipeline access to reach markets, the analysis primarily focuses on western Canadian production and supply. Over the next fifteen years, Alberta's oil sands provides the main source of growth in the western Canadian production forecast. A survey of CAPP members encompassing all oil sands projects was conducted. Survey responses reflect both planned and envisioned projects over a fifteen year period, although some of the envisioned projects have been risk adjusted by modifying the potential completion schedules for projects which are deemed more uncertain. Detailed tables are provided on forecast data. Three sets of tables are included to show production, two supply scenarios and a high level assessment of the need for incremental pipeline capacity. The report also discusses delays and risk factors that could slow the pace of oil sands development and the corresponding increase in production being forecast in the base case. 16 tabs

  13. Recent oil price shock and Tunisian economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jbir, Rafik; Zouari-Ghorbel, Sonia

    2009-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to study the oil prices-macroeconomy relationship by the analysis of the role of subsidy policy. The vector autoregression (VAR) method was employed to analyze the data over the period 1993 Q1 - 2007 Q3. The results of the model using both linear and non-linear specifications indicate that there is no direct impact of oil price shock on the economic activity. The shock of oil prices affects economic activity indirectly. The most significant channel by which the effects of the shock are transmitted is the government's spending. (author)

  14. Relationship between oil prices, interest rate, and unemployment. Evidence from an emerging market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dogrul, H. Guensel; Soytas, Ugur

    2010-01-01

    While the interrelation between oil price changes, economic activity and employment is an important issue that has been studied mainly for developed countries, little attention has been devoted to inquiries on fluctuations in the price of crude oil and its impact on employment for small open economies. Adopting an efficiency wage model for equilibrium employment that does not require any assumptions regarding labor supply, this paper contributes to the literature by investigating the causality between unemployment and two input prices, namely energy (crude oil) and capital (real interest rate) in an emerging market, Turkey for the period 2005:01-2009:08. Applying a relatively new technique, the Toda-Yamamoto procedure, we find that the real price of oil and interest rate improve the forecasts of unemployment in the long run. This finding supports the hypothesis that labor is a substitute factor of production for capital and energy. (author)

  15. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts. Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jammazi, Rania; Aloui, Chaker [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

    2010-03-15

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes. (author)

  16. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jammazi, Rania, E-mail: jamrania2@yahoo.f [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia); Aloui, Chaker, E-mail: chaker.aloui@fsegt.rnu.t [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

    2010-03-15

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes.

  17. Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2014-07-01

    The weak-form efficiency of energy futures markets has long been studied and empirical evidence suggests controversial conclusions. In this work, nonparametric methods are adopted to estimate the Hurst indexes of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) and a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping is put forward to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis. The results show that the crude oil futures market is efficient when the whole period is considered. When the whole series is divided into three sub-series separated by the outbreaks of the Gulf War and the Iraq War, it is found that the Gulf War reduced the efficiency of the market. If the sample is split into two sub-series based on the signing date of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the market is found to be inefficient in the sub-periods during which the Gulf War broke out. The same analysis on short-time series in moving windows shows that the market is inefficient only when some turbulent events occur, such as the oil price crash in 1985, the Gulf war, and the oil price crash in 2008.

  18. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammazi, Rania; Aloui, Chaker

    2010-01-01

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes.

  19. Effects of Crude Oil and Oil Products on Growth of Some Edible ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The vegetative growth response of three local edible mushrooms: Pleurotus pulmonarius (Pp), Pleurotus tuber-regium (Pt) and Lentinus squarrosulus (Ls) on different concentrations of Crude oil (COIL), Automotive Gasoline Oil (AGO), Fresh Engine Oil (ENGOIL) and Spent Engine Oil (SENGOIL) was investigated. The result ...

  20. Econometric model of the petroleum industry. [Determining crude supply and outputs/prices of refinery products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, P [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN; Smith, V K

    1977-11-01

    This paper describes a forty-two nonlinear equation model of the U.S. petroleum industry estimated over the period 1946 to 1973. The model specifies refinery outputs and prices as being simultaneously determined by market forces while the domestic output of crude oil is determined in a block-recursive segment of the model. The simultaneous behavioral equations are estimated with nonlinear two-stage least-squares adjusted to reflect the implications of autocorrelation for those equations where it appears to be a problem. A multi-period sample simulation, together with forecasts for 1974 and 1975 are used to evaluate the model's performance. Finally, it is used to forecast to 1985 under two scenarios and compared with the Federal Energy Administration's forecast for the same period. 2 figures, 8 tables, 38 references.

  1. CRUDE OIL TRANSPORT FROM THE CASPIAN SEA REGION TO EUROPE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Przybyłowski

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In the contemporary world, despite the growing importance and scale of the use of renewable energy , conventional energy resources still play a huge role. The European Union countries are dependent on the oil imports and the their main supplier of crude oil and natural gas has been the Russian Federation. After the collapse of the Soviet Union , the Caspian Sea region has become an alternative to Russian energy resources. The Unit-ed States , European Union, China and many other countries have shown their interest about this region. Despite a relatively large oil and natural gas reserves, the export of the-se commodities to the West is still problematic. Based on the available data and infor-mation, the publication explores the issue of energy resources transport directions with a particular emphasis on the crude oil from the Caspian Sea region to Europe.

  2. A novel apparatus for long term weathering of crude oils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berger, D.; Lun, R.; Skogen, E.; Ooijen, H. Van; Mackay, D.

    1993-01-01

    A novel apparatus is under development for exposing oil in the laboratory to prolonged weathering. The apparatus is mechanically simple and robust and involves contacting oil with water and air, and possibly with solar radiation, under controlled conditions of salinity and turbulence. The principle of operation is that the oil rests on the concave surface of water, which is held in a cylindrical glass vessel and rotated at 33 rpm. The oil is agitated by a fixed stirrer which has a variable pitch. Three oils were studied: Canadian Environmenal Protection Service standard, Kuwait crude, and Prudhoe Bay crude. Gas chromatographic analysis of the oil revealed the expected changes in composition due to evaporation, and purge and trap analysis of the water in contact with the oil determined the nature and concentration of the dissolved hydrocarbons. The apparatus also proved successful for testing the formation of water-in-oil emulsions. It is hoped that the system will contribute to an improved understanding of the mechanisms involved in the long term weathering processes which occur when oil is spilled at sea. 11 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  3. Comment on the UPS (and past and future downs) of the oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walde, T.

    2000-01-01

    Crude oil has been rising to levels over 35 US$ per barrel from the very low prices of early 1999 - close to 10 $. In real, inflation-adjusted terms, this leaves it still at a third of the prices prevailing during the peak of 1981. This trend has been accelerated currently by short-term influences market factors. Who could have forecasted such price evolution by January 1999, when crude prices were collapsing, following the series of financial crises in Asia, Russia and Brazil? The current oil price surge has been breaking once again every 'crystal ball' and mathematical model designed to predict short-or-long-term oil price evolution - foremost the models used by the international oil companies and their advisers, chastened by the embarrassment of earlier optimism. Old ghosts that used to scare the world during the energy crisis of the 1970's and 1980's are waking up again. Traditional forces that have since 1985 and throughout the whole 1990's given economic rationality to crude price behaviour, seem to be losing ground and are unable to restore a more sustainable level of oil prices. Political forces, silent since the price collapse of 1985/86, have again raised their head and bringing to the fore historic contradictions and problems never solved. This paper covers this new reality. We are too cautions to dare to forecast, but rather identify factors that have to be considered in speculating about the future evolution of oil prices. The changing weight of those factors will continue to influence the future of the oil price - without much interest (apart from the producers) when low but again greatly debated when, as now, up again. (authors)

  4. Performance of Diesel Engine Using Blended Crude Jatropha Oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamarudin, Kamarul Azhar; Mohd Sazali, Nor Shahida Akma; Mohd Ali, Mas Fauzi; Alimin, Ahmad Jais; Khir, Saffiah Abdullah

    2010-06-01

    Vegetable oil presents a very promising alternative to diesel oil since it is renewable and has similar properties to the diesel. In view of this, crude jatropha oil is selected and its viscosity is reduced by blending it with diesel. Since jatropha oil has properties which are similar to mineral diesel, it can be used in compression ignition engines without any engine modification. This paper presents the results of investigation carried out on a four-cylinder, four strokes and indirect-injection diesel engine. The engine, operated using composition blends of crude jatropha oil and diesel, were compared with mineral diesel. An experimental investigation has been carried out to analyze the performance characteristics of a compression ignition engine from the blended fuel (5%, 10%, 20% and 30%). A naturally aspirated four-stroke indirect injection diesel engine was tested at full load conditions, speeds between 1000 and 3500 rpm with intervals of 500 rpm. Results obtained from the measures of torque, power, specific fuel consumptions, thermal efficiency and brake mean effective pressure are nearly the same between blended and diesel fuel. An overall graph shows that the performance of relevant parameters from blended fuel is most likely similar to the performance produced from diesel. The experimental results proved that the use of crude jatropha oil in compression ignition engines is a viable alternative to diesel.

  5. Economics Aspects of Increasing the Oil Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grendel Peter

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available In paper I describe mainly high price of oil, which has influence on many circumstances. The important effect on growing up the price of oil has situation in Mid-east, and everyday rising consumption of oil in China. Meaningful position have USA, which using 45% of word energy. The problem is particularly in daily mining of lode. In next part i describing aspect of this situation on stock-exchange, mainly behaviour of speculators, and OPEC, and also presure on inflation in Euro-zone. In the last chapter I discuss about reaction of the big world oil concern like CONOCO, SHELL, BP, OMV and MOL.

  6. Assessment of antioxidant indices after incorporating crude oil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    They were divided into six groups of five rats each as follows: group 1: control, group 2: rats fed crude petroleum oil contaminated catfish diet (CPO-CCD) only, group 3: ... Administration of MWE, MEE and MDEE to the rats fed CPO-CCD significantly (p<0.05) increased the level of blood GSH, blood GSSG, SOD, CAT and ...

  7. Acute Toxicological Effects of Crude Oil On Haematological And ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The acute toxicological effects of Brass blend of crude oil on the haemoglobin concentration, and Liver functions in the Guinea pig were studied. 25 Guinea pigs divided into five animals per group were used for the study. They were divided into 5 groups. One group served as a control group, while the others received ...

  8. Evaluation of soil microbial communities as influenced by crude oil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impact of petroleum pollution in a vulnerable Niger Delta ecosystem was investigated to assess interactions in a first-generation phytoremediation site of a crude oil freshly-spilled agricultural soil. Community-level approach for assessing patterns of sole carbon-source utilization by mixed microbial samples was employed to ...

  9. Crude oil metabolites in groundwater at two spill sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekins, Barbara A.; Cozzarelli, Isabelle M.; Erickson, Melinda L.; Steenson, Ross; Thorn, Kevin A.

    2016-01-01

    Two groundwater plumes in north central Minnesota with residual crude oil sources have 20 to 50 mg/L of nonvolatile dissolved organic carbon (NVDOC). These values are over 10 times higher than benzene and two to three times higher than Diesel Range Organics in the same wells. On the basis of previous work, most of the NVDOC consists of partial transformation products from the crude oil. Monitoring data from 1988 to 2015 at one of the sites located near Bemidji, MN show that the plume of metabolites is expanding toward a lakeshore located 335 m from the source zone. Other mass balance studies of the site have demonstrated that the plume expansion is driven by the combined effect of continued presence of the residual crude oil source and depletion of the electron accepting capacity of solid phase iron oxide and hydroxides on the aquifer sediments. These plumes of metabolites are not covered by regulatory monitoring and reporting requirements in Minnesota and other states. Yet, a review of toxicology studies indicates that polar metabolites of crude oil may pose a risk to aquatic and mammalian species. Together the results suggest that at sites where residual sources are present, monitoring of NVDOC may be warranted to evaluate the fates of plumes of hydrocarbon transformation products.

  10. Assessment and bioremediation of heavy metals from crude oil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The assessment of the levels of heavy metals present in crude oil contaminated soil and the application of the earthworm - Hyperiodrilus africanus with interest on the bioremediation of metals from the contaminated soil was investigated within a 90-days period under laboratory conditions. Selected heavy metals such as ...

  11. Bioremediation of a crude oil polluted tropical rain forest soil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    These results suggest that Biostimulation with tilling (nutrient enhanced in-situ bioremediation) and or the combination ofBiostimulation and Bioaugumentation with indigenous hydrocarbon utilizers would be effective in the remediation of crude oil polluted tropical soils. Key Words: Bioremediation, Bioaugumentation, ...

  12. Bioremediation potential of crude oil spilled on soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McMillen, S.J.; Young, G.N.; Davis, P.S.; Cook, P.D.; Kerr, J.M.; Gray, N.R.; Requejo, A.G.

    1995-01-01

    Spills sometimes occur during routine operations associated with exploration and production (E and P) of crude oil. These spills at E and P sites typically are small, less than 1 acre (0.4 ha), and the spill may be in remote locations. As a result, bioremediation often represents a cost-effective alternative to other cleanup technologies. The goal of this study was to determine the potential for biodegrading a range of crude oil types and determining the effect of process variables such as soil texture and soil salinity. Crude oils evaluated ranged in American Petroleum institute (API) gravity from 14 degree to 45 degree. The extent of biodegradation was calculated from oxygen uptake data and the total extractable material (TEM) concentration. Based on the data collected, a simple model was developed for predicting the bioremediation potential of a range of crude oil types. Biodegradation rates were significantly lower in sandy soils. Soil salinities greater than approximately 40 mmhos/cm adversely impacted soil microbial activity and biodegradation rate

  13. Bioremediation of a Crude Oil Polluted Tropical Mangrove ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A combination of bioaugumentation with hydrocarbon utilizing indigenous bacteria, biostimulation with agricultural fertilizer (NPK 15:15:15) and tilling were employed as remedial options for 20 weeks in a crude oil polluted tidal plain dominated by mangrove (Rhizophora, Laguncularia and Avicenia) vegetation. Soil ...

  14. Socio–economic and environmental impact of crude oil exploration ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Socio–economic and environmental impact of crude oil exploration and production on agricultural production: a case study of Edjeba and Kokori communities in Delta State of ... The results also showed an increase in the occurrence of health hazard, air/noise pollution and heightened deforestation in these communities.

  15. The phytoremediation of crude oil-polluted aquatic environment by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A phytoremediation experiment was carried out in the Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Management, University of Ibadan, Nigeria to examine the ability of water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) to detoxify crude oil-polluted aquatic environments. There were fifteen (15) experimental units; twelve (12) had water hyacinth ...

  16. Forecasting Value-at-Risk for Crude-Oil Exposures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonidas

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to forecast and evaluate Value-At-Risk for crude-oil exposures. We examine the performance of a GARCH-type based model with lagged implied volatility entering the variance equation as explanatory variable for the predicted variance. The forecasted Values-at...

  17. Impact of Crude-Oil Spillage Pollution and Chemical Remediation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Horsfall

    significantly (p≤0.01) higher than the level of degradation, except in infiltration rate. Soil pH increased by 26% .... volumes of water were added into the containers on day six. As the days ... crude oil spillage reduced soil moisture availability or.

  18. World resources of crude oil and natural gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masters, C.D.; Root, D.H.; Attanasi, E.D. (Geological Survey, Reston, VA (United States))

    1991-01-01

    An abstract is given of a paper presented at the World Petroleum Congress 1991 on the world estimates of identified reserves and undiscovered resources for crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. Data are presented for Canada, Mexico, USA, South America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, USSR, Africa, Middle East, Asia/Oceania and Antartica. (UK).

  19. Clean technology for the crude palm oil industry in Thailand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chavalparit, O.

    2006-01-01

    The aims of this study were to assess the potential contribution of clean(er) technology to improve the environmental performance of the crude palm oil industry inThailand, to analyse implementation barriers for

  20. (maize) to a crude oil polluted agricultural soil

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SERVER

    2007-06-04

    Jun 4, 2007 ... aiding the activities of the large numbers of microbes ... math of crude oil pollution of agricultural soils to forestall the adverse effects induced .... International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (I.I.T.A) manual series. No. 1, Ibadan ...

  1. CFD modeling of fouling in crude oil pre-heaters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayat, Mahmoud; Aminian, Javad; Bazmi, Mansour; Shahhosseini, Shahrokh; Sharifi, Khashayar

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A conceptual CFD-based model to predict fouling in industrial crude oil pre-heaters. ► Tracing fouling formation in the induction and developing continuation periods. ► Effect of chemical components, shell-side HTC and turbulent flow on the fouling rate. - Abstract: In this study, a conceptual procedure based on the computational fluid dynamic (CFD) technique has been developed to predict fouling rate in an industrial crude oil pre-heater. According to the developed CFD concept crude oil was assumed to be composed of three pseudo-components comprising of petroleum, asphaltene and salt. The binary diffusion coefficients were appropriately categorized into five different groups. The species transport model was applied to simulate the mixing and transport of chemical species. The possibility of adherence of reaction products to the wall was taken into account by applying a high viscosity for the products in competition with the shear stress on the wall. Results showed a reasonable agreement between the model predictions and the plant data. The CFD model could be applied to new operating conditions to investigate the details of the crude oil fouling in the industrial pre-heaters.

  2. (A. Chev.) Stevels) Exposed to Crude Oil Contaminated Soil

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Six accessions of cultivated Okra (Abelmoschuscaillei (A. Chev.) Stevels) and Abelmoschusesculentus (L.) Moench) were evaluated using growth parameters in crude oil contaminated soil. Seeds were collected from collected from Nigerian Institute of Horticulture (NIHORT), Ibadan and from home gardens in Benin City.

  3. Efficacy of intervention strategies for bioremediation of crude oil in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The search for the solution to ameliorate the seemingly unending pollution and its side effects necessitated the evaluation on the effect of bioaugmentation, biostimulation and natural attenuation of crude oil pollution in soil microcosms. The bacterial species selected for this study (Bacillus thuringensis strain LG32 and ...

  4. Distribution and geochemical application of aromatic hydrocarbons in crude oils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asif, M.; Tahira, F.

    2007-01-01

    Distribution of aromatic hydrocarbons was studied in a set of crude oils, five from northern Indus basin of potwar area and two from southern Indus basin. Diaromatic and triaromatic hydrocarbons were separated from highly complex mixture of sedimentary organic matter by using liquid chromatography techniques such as column chromatography, TLC and GC-FID. These classes of compounds were identified to alkylated isomers of naphthalenes and phenanthrenes by using reference chromatograms and literature data. High concentration of di-,tri- and tetra-methyl naphthalenes was observed in all crude oils except Kal. The relative increase in concentration of alkyl naphthalenes was found as moved to higher methyl substituted isomers. This suggests that they are the product of sedimentary alkylation reactions during catagensis and metagensis. The significant concentration of methyl phenanthrenes indicated source of organic matter. High levels of both 1-MP and 9-MP showed marine and terrestrial source of organic matter except Umer crude oil which is most likely to have terrestrial origin. The ratios of beta-substituted to the alpha-substituted isomers of both alkyl naphthalenes and alkyl phenanthrene were used to assess the thermal maturity of sedimentary organic matter, which revealed high maturity level of Dhurnal, Pindori, Badin and Toot crude oils. (author)

  5. Crude Oil Corrosion Fatigue of L485MB Pipeline Steel

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gajdoš, Lubomír; Šperl, Martin; Bystrianský, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 137, č. 5 (2015), 051401 ISSN 0094-9930 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR(CZ) TE02000162 Institutional support: RVO:68378297 Keywords : corrosion fatigue * crude oil * pipeline steel * S–N curve * separated water Subject RIV: JI - Composite Materials Impact factor: 0.476, year: 2015 http://pressurevesseltech.asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/article.aspx?articleID=2107675

  6. World oil prices flat to declining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelman, M.A.

    1993-01-01

    A forecast is presented of the likely trends in world oil prices over the short to medium term. A historical background is presented of the OPEC cartel and its role in influencing oil prices. The incentives and disincentives for OPEC to raise prices, and the tensions within the cartel are explored. Slower demand growth and the expansion of natural gas are expected to put downward pressure on oil prices, which are currently artificially high. The impacts of high taxes on development and exploration are examined, and it is shown that state ownership poses an obstacle to improved performance. Threats of price decline are expected to continue to lead to threats of hasty, or even violent action on the part of OPEC members, as happened in 1990. Privatization and tax codes designed to skim rent are positive trends

  7. Down-hole catalytic upgrading of heavy crude oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weissman, J.G.; Kessler, R.V.; Sawicki, R.A.; Belgrave, J.D.M.; Laureshen, C.J.; Mehta, S.A.; Moore, R.G.; Ursenbach, M.G. [University of Calgary, Calgary, AB (Canada). Dept. of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering

    1996-07-01

    Several processing options have been developed to accomplish near-well bore in-situ upgrading of heavy crude oils. These processes are designed to pass oil over a fixed bed of catalyst prior to entering the production well, the catalyst being placed by conventional gravel pack methods. The presence of brine and the need to provide heat and reactant gases in a down-hole environment provide challenges not present in conventional processing. These issues were addressed and the processes demonstrated by use of a modified combustion tube apparatus. Middle-Eastern heavy crude oil and the corresponding brine were used at the appropriate reservoir conditions. In-situ combustion was used to generate reactive gases and to drive fluids over a heated sand or catalysts bed, simulating the catalyst contacting portion of the proposed processes. The heavy crude oil was found to be amenable to in-situ combustion at anticipated reservoir conditions, with a relatively low air requirement. Forcing the oil to flow over a heated zone prior to production results in some upgrading of the oil, as compared to the original oil, due to thermal effects. Passing the oil over a hydroprocessing catalyst located in the heated zone results in a product that is significantly upgraded as compared to either the original oil or thermally processed oil. Catalytic upgrading is due to hydrogenation and the results in about a 50% sulfur removal and an 8{degree} API gravity increase. Additionally, the heated catalyst was found to be efficient at converting CO to additional H{sub 2}. While all of the technologies needed for a successful field trial of in-situ catalytic upgrading exist, a demonstration has yet to be undertaken. 27 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.

  8. Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sari, Ramazan; Soytas, Ugur; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the co-movements and information transmission among the spot prices of four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium), oil price, and the US dollar/euro exchange rate. We find evidence of a weak long-run equilibrium relationship but strong feedbacks in the short run. The spot precious metal markets respond significantly (but temporarily) to a shock in any of the prices of the other metal prices and the exchange rate. Furthermore, we discover some evidence of market overreactions in the palladium and platinum cases as well as in the exchange rate market. In conclusion, whether there are overreactions and re-adjustments or not, investors may diversify at least a portion of the risk away by investing in precious metals, oil, and the euro. Policy implications are provided. (author)

  9. The oil market. Call on OPEC determines the oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kingma, D.; Mulder, M.

    2001-01-01

    Several scenarios are applied to determine the oil price for the medium-long term, based on the so-called 'call on OPEC'. The 'call on OPEC' is part of the demand for oil which has to supplied by OPEC. It is expected that the nominal oil price will be circa $24 per barrel in 2004, based on a global growth of 4%. 2 refs

  10. High oil prices are here to stay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toennesen, Bjoern Inge

    2004-01-01

    The presentation discusses the development in the OPEC countries with emphasis on oil price fluctuation, spare production capacity and OPEC control. The capacity expansion in non-OPEC countries and the global demand development are also surveyed. (tk)

  11. Cost and benefits for using NYMEX [New York Mercantile Exchange] crude oil futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deaves, R.; Krinsky, I.

    1991-01-01

    The crisis in the Persian Gulf in 1990-91 has illustrated how important it is for end users of petroleum products to be able to reduce the risk of unexpected price changes. Transferring the risk of price changes, or hedging, is most desirable when the costs of doing so are low relative to the benefits. The nature of these benefits and costs are discussed, and a related analysis of data from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures market is reported. It is shown that likely risk reduction is directly related to the degree to which the crude oil futures market can be characterized as efficient. Using data from the highly volatile period of 1983-90, evidence is presented to support the proposition that the crude oil market is efficient. There is no evidence for the existence of risk premiums, which constitute an additional cost to hedging. This is good news for hedgers, as it implies that risk transfer is free in the sense that hedgers need pay no premium to speculators. Although the market appears to be efficient when past returns and the basis are used as explanatory variables, there is some evidence that futures returns may be predicted using macroeconomic variables. 8 refs., 4 tabs

  12. The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Jamie; Nguyen, Bao H.

    2017-01-01

    We employ a class of time-varying Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) models on new standard dataset of China's GDP constructed by to examine the relationship between China's economic growth and global oil market fluctuations between 1992Q1 and 2015Q3. We find that: (1) the time varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility provides a better fit as compared to it's constant counterparts; (2) the impacts of intertemporal global oil price shocks on China's output are often small and temporary in nature; (3) oil supply and specific oil demand shocks generally produce negative movements in China's GDP growth whilst oil demand shocks tend to have positive effects; (4) domestic output shocks have no significant impact on price or quantity movements within the global oil market. The results are generally robust to three commonly employed indicators of global economic activity: Kilian's global real economic activity index, the metal price index and the global industrial production index, and two alternative oil price metrics: the US refiners' acquisition cost for imported crude oil and the West Texas Intermediate price of crude oil. - Highlights: • A class of time-varying BVARs is used to examine the relationship between China's economic growth and global oil market fluctuations. • The impacts of intertemporal global oil price shocks on China's output are often small and temporary in nature. • Oil supply and specific oil demand shocks generally produce negative movements in China's GDP growth while oil demand shocks tend to have positive effects. • Domestic output shocks have no significant impact on price or quantity movements within the global oil market.

  13. The response of Scirpus pungens to crude oil contaminated sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Longpre, D.; Jaouich, A.; Jarry, V.; Venosa, A.D.; Lee, K.; Suidan, M.T.

    1999-01-01

    An exposure study was conducted to determine the impacts of an oil spill on the plant Scirpus pungens and to determine potential recovery rates of the species in the event of an accidental spill within the St. Lawrence River. Scirpus pungens is an important wetland plant which is essential for control of coastal erosion and which provides a unique habitat for a variety of biota. Sediments contaminated with medium-light crude oil were used in this study. Transplants in oiled and unoiled sediments were maintained in greenhouses to monitor changes in plant height, growth and mortality over a 63 day period. Results showed that plants exposed to high concentrations of oiled sediment were much smaller than those exposed to lightly contaminated sediments. Elevated oil concentrations greatly decreased plant biomass. Mortality was highly correlated with oil concentration. Transplants were able to survive, grow and produce new shoots in sediments contaminated with crude oil in a range of concentrations comparable to those associated with oil spills

  14. The response of Scirpus pungens to crude oil contaminated sediments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Longpre, D; Jaouich, A [Quebec Univ., Montreal, PQ (Canada); Jarry, V [Environment Canada, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Venosa, A D [US Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, OH (United States). National Risk Management Research Lab.; Lee, K [Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Mont Joli, PQ (Canada). Inst. Maurice Lamontagne; Suidan, M T [Cincinnati Univ., Cincinnati, OH (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

    1999-01-01

    An exposure study was conducted to determine the impacts of an oil spill on the plant Scirpus pungens and to determine potential recovery rates of the species in the event of an accidental spill within the St. Lawrence River. Scirpus pungens is an important wetland plant which is essential for control of coastal erosion and which provides a unique habitat for a variety of biota. Sediments contaminated with medium-light crude oil were used in this study. Transplants in oiled and unoiled sediments were maintained in greenhouses to monitor changes in plant height, growth and mortality over a 63 day period. Results showed that plants exposed to high concentrations of oiled sediment were much smaller than those exposed to lightly contaminated sediments. Elevated oil concentrations greatly decreased plant biomass. Mortality was highly correlated with oil concentration. Transplants were able to survive, grow and produce new shoots in sediments contaminated with crude oil in a range of concentrations comparable to those associated with oil spills.

  15. Politics, economics and the price of oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaki Yamani, S.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes petroleum price instability in connection with politics intrusion into the oil business. The author shows the dominant position of OPEC on petroleum market during the 70s and the 80s, the influence of Iranian revolution, Iran / Iraq war and Kuwait invasion by Iraq on petroleum price evolution. 5 figs

  16. Molecular processes in the biodegradation of crude oils and crude oil products in the natural reservoir and in laboratory experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schalenbach, S.S.

    1993-10-01

    Two ains were pursued in the present study; first, to find positive indicators of the onset of biodegradation of reservoir oil wherever other parameters fail to give a clear picture; second, to establish a basic understanding of the molecular processes underlying the biodegradation of hydrocarbons and thus create a starting point for finding better criteria for valuating biological restoration methods for crude oil contaminated soils. (orig./HS) [de

  17. Oil prices are raising up. So what?; Le petrole flambe. Et alors?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lecompte-Boin, G.

    2000-06-01

    The oil crack that started about a year ago has had practically no impact on the French economy and economic growth. Crude oil prices have increased about three times since the beginning of 1999. The increase of production quotas decided by the OPEC on June 21, 2000 has had no effect and the barrel price has stayed stuck to 30 US$. Even if oil prices do not change in the forthcoming months, nobody will care. This short paper analyzes this paradoxical situation. (J.S.)

  18. Economic and environmental effects of the FQD on crude oil production from tar sands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kampman, B.; De Buck, A.; Afman, M. [CE Delft, Delft (Netherlands); Van den Berg, J.; Otten, G.J. [Carbon Matters, Den Haag (Netherlands)

    2013-05-15

    The production of unconventional crudes in Canada and Venezuela and exports of these crudes to the EU are investigated. In addition the potential economic and environmental impact of the proposed EU FQD measures (Fuel Quality Directive) on the production of crudes from tar sands and on new tar sand exploration projects are examined. CE Delft has analysed the impact by using a dedicated cost model. For existing projects, the model determines the effect on the basis of marginal production costs. For planned projects the model used the net present value (NPV) of proposed investments. The impacts were determined for a range of crude oil prices and FQD price effects. Combined, for existing and new projects together, the maximum effect would be at a price level at 60 USD/bbl, with savings of up to 19 Mt CO2/y at an FQD price differential of 3 euro/bbl. This overall effect would be substantial and come on top of the total emission reduction effect of the FQD of 60 Mt CO2/y, which will be achieved mostly by the blending of low-carbon fuels and reduced flaring and venting. As part of the reduction of transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the revised FQD obliges fuel suppliers to reduce these emissions by 6% by 2020 on a well-to-wheel basis. The EU is currently developing a methodology to differentiate fossil fuels on the basis of feedstock and GHG emissions. In the proposal, diesel produced from tar sands, has been given a default emission value of 108.5 gCO2 eq/MJ, while diesel from conventional crude was set at 89.1 gCO2 eq/MJ. The Commission's proposal is currently undergoing an impact assessment and is expected to be resubmitted to the Council later this year (2013)

  19. Exploring asymmetric behavior pattern from Indian oil products prices using NARDL and GHSOM approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chattopadhyay, Manojit; Kumar Mitra, Subrata

    2015-01-01

    The present work endeavors to explore the potential asymmetries in the pricing of oil products in India where prices are not only affected by the crude oil price changes in the international markets but are also subject to government interventions. In order to protect domestic consumers from this volatility, historically the government of India tried to control the domestic price of petroleum products by cross subsidization and giving subsidies. In this paper, we analyze the impact of crude oil price on domestic oil prices by applying nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and Growing Hierarchical Self-Organizing Map (GHSOM) approaches for the period of April, 2005–July, 2014. The GHSOM has been explored through pattern analysis on the asymmetric behavior using similarity measures. From the study it can be interpreted that the prices of products left to be determined by the market exhibit a strong asymmetry. However, pricing of the products that are monitored and controlled by the government do not exhibit any such asymmetry. Hence, the question still remains – should the government intervene in pricing petroleum products when monopolistic attitudes of large oil companies are detrimental to the interest of retail consumers? - Highlights: • We explored the potential asymmetries in the pricing of oil products in India. • Analyze cointegration and asymmetric behavior of oil products by NARDL approach. • GHSOM method has been explored for pattern analysis on the asymmetric behavior. • The analysis reveals that the market determined prices exhibits a strong asymmetry. • Oil product pricing controlled by the government do not exhibit such asymmetry.

  20. Investigation of alkaline–crude oil reaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J. Sheng

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, this mechanism and related issues are discussed, analyzed or quantified. In particular, the numerical simulation approach is used. The results show that only a fraction of acid components can be converted into soap; the amount of generated soap could be low. A minimum pH (e.g. 9 is needed for the acids to be converted to soap. The literature information on the effect of amount of acid components (total acid number on oil recovery is also discussed.

  1. Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Alvarez, Jesus; Rodriguez, Eduardo

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the auto-correlations of international crude oil prices on the basis of the estimation of the Hurst exponent dynamics for returns over the period from 1987 to 2007. In doing so, a model-free statistical approach - detrended fluctuation analysis - that reduces the effects of non-stationary market trends and focuses on the intrinsic auto-correlation structure of market fluctuations over different time horizons, is used. Tests for time variations of the Hurst exponent indicate that over long horizons the crude oil market is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. However, meaningful auto-correlations cannot be excluded for time horizons smaller than one month where the Hurst exponent manifests cyclic, non-periodic dynamics. This means that the market exhibits a time-varying short-term inefficient behavior that becomes efficient in the long term. The proposed methodology and its findings are put in perspective with previous studies and results. (author)

  2. Causality in variance and the type of traders in crude oil futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhar, Ramaprasad; Hamori, Shigeyuki

    2005-01-01

    This article examines the causal relationship and, in particular, informational dependence between crude oil futures return and the trading volume using daily data over a ten-year period using a recent econometric methodology. The two-step procedure developed by Cheung and Ng (1996) [Cheung, Y.W., Ng, L.K., 1996. A causality-in-variance test and its applications to financial market prices, Journal of Econometrics 72, 33-48.] is robust to distributional assumption and does not depend on simultaneous modeling of the two variables. We find only causality at higher order lags running from return to volume in the mean as well as in conditional variance. Our result is not in complete agreement with several earlier studies in this area. However, the result does indicate mild support for noise traders' hypothesis in the crude oil futures market. (Author)

  3. Rheological Behaviour of Water-in-Light Crude Oil Emulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husin, H.; Taju Ariffin, T. S.; Yahya, E.

    2018-05-01

    Basically, emulsions consist of two immiscible liquids which have different density. In petroleum industry, emulsions are undesirable due to their various costly problems in term of transportation difficulties and production loss. A study of the rheological behaviour of light crude oil and its mixture from Terengganu were carried out using Antoon Paar MCR 301 rheometer operated at pressure of 2.5 bar at temperature C. Water in oil emulsions were prepared by mixing light crude oil with different water volume fractions (20%, 30% and 40%). The objectives of present paper are to study the rheological behaviour of emulsion as a fuction of shear rate and model analysis that fitted with the experimental data. The rheological models of Ostwald-De-Waele and Herschel-Bulkley were fitted to the experimental results. All models represented well the rheological data, with high values for the correlation coefficients. The result indicated that variation of water content influenced shear rate-shear stress rheogram of the prepared emulsions. In the case of 100% light crude oil, the study demonstrated non-Newtonian shear thickening behavior. However, for emulsion with different volume water ratios, the rheological behaviour could be well described by Herschel-Bulkley models due to the present of yield stress parameter (R2 = 0.99807). As a conclusion, rheological studies showed that volume water ratio have a great impact on the shear stress and viscosity of water in oil emulsion and it is important to understand these factors to avoid various costly problems.

  4. Microbial ecology of a crude oil contaminated aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekins, B.A.; Cozzarelli, I.M.; Warren, E.; Godsy, E.M.

    2002-01-01

    Detailed microbial analyses of a glacial outwash aquifer contaminated by crude oil provide insights into the pattern of microbial succession from iron reducing to methanogenic in the anaerobic portion of the contaminant plume. We analysed sediments from this area for populations of aerobes, iron reducers, fermenters and methanogens, using the most probable number method. On the basis of the microbial data the anaerobic area can be divided into distinct physiological zones dominated by either iron-reducers or a consortium of fermenters and methanogens. Chemistry and permeability data show that methanogenic conditions develop first in areas of high hydrocarbon flux. Thus, we find methanogens both in high permeability horizons and also where separate-phase crude oil is present in either the saturated or unsaturated zone. Microbial numbers peak at the top of the separate-phase oil suggesting that growth is most rapid in locations with access to both hydrocarbons and nutrients infiltrating from the surface.

  5. Crude oil and natural gas supplies and demands for Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackay, R.M.; Probert, S.D.

    1995-01-01

    A novel technique for forecasting the supply and extraction life-cycle of a depleting fossil fuel resource has been developed. The supply side utilises a 'skewed-normal production-profile' model that yields a better representation than earlier approaches. A simple model for extrapolating crude oil and natural gas demands has also been devised, based on the so called 'modified logit function'. The predicted crude oil and natural gas balances for the period up to AD 2010 indicate the disparity between indigenous production and future consumption for Denmark. These forecasts depend on current estimates of remaining oil and gas reserves. It will consequently be necessary to revise periodically the present projections as more reliable reserve estimates become available. (author)

  6. Detection of genetically modified soybean in crude soybean oil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolić, Zorica; Vasiljević, Ivana; Zdjelar, Gordana; Ðorđević, Vuk; Ignjatov, Maja; Jovičić, Dušica; Milošević, Dragana

    2014-02-15

    In order to detect presence and quantity of Roundup Ready (RR) soybean in crude oil extracted from soybean seed with a different percentage of GMO seed two extraction methods were used, CTAB and DNeasy Plant Mini Kit. The amplifications of lectin gene, used to check the presence of soybean DNA, were not achieved in all CTAB extracts of DNA, while commercial kit gave satisfactory results. Comparing actual and estimated GMO content between two extraction methods, root mean square deviation for kit is 0.208 and for CTAB is 2.127, clearly demonstrated superiority of kit over CTAB extraction. The results of quantification evidently showed that if the oil samples originate from soybean seed with varying percentage of RR, it is possible to monitor the GMO content at the first stage of processing crude oil. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. On Boiling of Crude Oil under Elevated Pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimenova, Anastasiya V.; Goldobin, Denis S.

    2016-02-01

    We construct a thermodynamic model for theoretical calculation of the boiling process of multicomponent mixtures of hydrocarbons (e.g., crude oil). The model governs kinetics of the mixture composition in the course of the distillation process along with the boiling temperature increase. The model heavily relies on the theory of dilute solutions of gases in liquids. Importantly, our results are applicable for modelling the process under elevated pressure (while the empiric models for oil cracking are not scalable to the case of extreme pressure), such as in an oil field heated by lava intrusions.

  8. Radiation doses and hazards from processing of crude oil at the Tema oil refinery in Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darko, E. O.; Kpeglo, D. O.; Akaho, E. H. K.; Schandorf, C.; Adu, P. A. S.; Faanu, A.; Abankwah, E.; Lawluvi, H.; Awudu, A. R.

    2012-01-01

    Processing of crude oil has been carried out in Ghana for more than four decades without measures to assess the hazards associated with the naturally occurring radionuclides in the raw and processed materials. This study investigates the exposure of the public to 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K in crude oil, petroleum products and wastes at the Tema oil refinery in Ghana using gamma-ray spectrometry. The study shows higher activity concentrations of the natural radionuclides in the wastes than the crude oil and the products with estimated hazard indices less than unity. The values obtained in the study are within recommended limits for public exposure indicating that radiation exposure from processing of the crude oil at the refinery does not pose any significant radiological hazard but may require monitoring to establish long-term effect on both public and workers. (authors)

  9. Radiation doses and hazards from processing of crude oil at the Tema oil refinery in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darko, E O; Kpeglo, D O; Akaho, E H K; Schandorf, C; Adu, P A S; Faanu, A; Abankwah, E; Lawluvi, H; Awudu, A R

    2012-02-01

    Processing of crude oil has been carried out in Ghana for more than four decades without measures to assess the hazards associated with the naturally occurring radionuclides in the raw and processed materials. This study investigates the exposure of the public to (226)Ra, (232)Th and (40)K in crude oil, petroleum products and wastes at the Tema oil refinery in Ghana using gamma-ray spectrometry. The study shows higher activity concentrations of the natural radionuclides in the wastes than the crude oil and the products with estimated hazard indices less than unity. The values obtained in the study are within recommended limits for public exposure indicating that radiation exposure from processing of the crude oil at the refinery does not pose any significant radiological hazard but may require monitoring to establish long-term effect on both public and workers.

  10. Can reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces attenuate supply-side peak oil?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okullo, Samuel; Reynes, Frederic

    2010-09-15

    More often, oil supply has been modeled on the basis of resource availability and demand. The impact of strategy between oil producers has largely been ignored or overly simplified. In this paper, we formulate a model that embodies a weak and strong OPEC for varied rates of reserve additions. With this economic equilibrium model which has the capability to generate a supply side peak in oil production, we show that although reserves of conventional crude oil may seem abundant. OPEC has the ability to lead to substantial crude oil reserve depletion in non-OPEC countries by 2050 given likely depletion rates.

  11. Comparisons Between Asphaltenes from the Dead and Live-Oil Samples of the Same Crude Oils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aquino-Olivos, M.A.; Andersen, Simon Ivar; Lira-Galeana, C.

    2003-01-01

    extracted and analyzed. These pressure-driven asphaltenes found on the filter were found to make up in the range between 50 and 100 ppm of the whole crude oil. Opening of the cell did not reveal asphaltenes retained due to wall adhesion. Size exclusion chromatography tests performed on both the live......-oil-derived asphaltenes and the standard asphaltenes as precipitated by atmospheric titration on the same crude oil, revealed that the live-oil asphaltenes had apparent smaller hydrodynamic volume and narrower distributions than the standard asphaltenes for two oils. Further FTIR tests also showed large differences...

  12. The influence of global benchmark oil prices on the regional oil spot market in multi-period evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Meihui; An, Haizhong; Jia, Xiaoliang; Sun, Xiaoqi

    2017-01-01

    Crude benchmark oil prices play a crucial role in energy policy and investment management. Previous research confined itself to studying the static, uncertain, short- or long-term relationship between global benchmark oil prices, ignoring the time-varying, quantitative, dynamic nature of the relationship during various stages of oil price volatility. This paper proposes a novel approach combining grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet analysis, and Bayesian network modeling to explore the multi-period evolution of the dynamic relationship between global benchmark oil prices and regional oil spot price. We analyze the evolution of the most significant decision-making risk periods, as well as the combined strategy-making reference oil prices and the corresponding periods during various stages of volatility. Furthermore, we determine that the network evolution of the quantitative lead/lag relationship between different influences of global benchmark oil prices shows a multi-period evolution phenomenon. For policy makers and market investors, our combined model can provide decision-making periods with the lowest expected risk and decision-making target reference oil prices and corresponding weights for strategy adjustment and market arbitrage. This study provides further information regarding period weights of target reference oil prices, facilitating efforts to perform multi-agent energy policy and intertemporal market arbitrage. - Highlights: • Multi-period evolution of the influence of different oil prices is discovered. • We combined grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet and Bayesian network. • The intensity of volatility, synchronization, and lead/lag effects are analyzed. • The target reference oil prices and corresponding period weights are determined.

  13. Chaos in oil prices? Evidence from futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adrangi, B.; Chatrath, A.; Dhanda, K.K.; Raffiee, K.

    2001-01-01

    We test for the presence of low-dimensional chaotic structure in crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline futures prices from the early 1980s. Evidence on chaos will have important implications for regulators and short-term trading strategies. While we find strong evidence of non-linear dependencies, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. Our test results indicate that ARCH-type processes, with controls for seasonal variation in prices, generally explain the non-linearities in the data. We also demonstrate that employing seasonally adjusted price series contributes to obtaining robust results via the existing tests for chaotic structure. Maximum likelihood methodologies, that are robust to the non-linear dynamics, lend support for Samuelson's hypothesis on contract-maturity effects in futures price-changes. However, the tests for chaos are not found to be sensitive to the maturity effects in the futures contracts. The results are robust to controls for the oil shocks of 1986 and 1991

  14. Regime-switching stochastic volatility. Evidence from the crude oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, Minh T.

    2009-01-01

    This paper incorporates regime-switching into the stochastic volatility (SV) framework in an attempt to explain the behavior of crude oil prices in order to forecast their volatility. More specifically, it models the volatility of oil return as a stochastic volatility process whose mean is subject to shifts in regime. The shift is governed by a two-state first-order Markov process. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the models. The main findings are: first, there is clear evidence of regime-switching in the oil market. Ignoring it will lead to a false impression that the volatility is highly persistent and therefore highly predictable. Second, incorporating regime-switching into the SV framework significantly enhances the forecasting power of the SV model. Third, the regime-switching stochastic volatility model does a good job in capturing major events affecting the oil market. (author)

  15. Impact on world oil prices when larger and fewer producers emerge from a political restructuring of the Middle East

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wirl, F.

    1992-01-01

    We investigate how a redistribution of oil reserves among a (probably reduced) set of producers affects OPEC's oil extraction policies and thus international crude oil-prices. The empirical investigation shows that this impact is fairly small, as long as OPEC members do not cooperate. Only cooperation will have a substantial impact. (author)

  16. The term structure of oil futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabillon, J.

    1991-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a massive development of derivative financial products in oil markets. The main interest came from large energy end-users who found in them a welcome opportunity to lock in fixed or maximum prices for their supplies over a period of time. Oil companies and oil traders were able to provide tailor-made swaps or options for the specific needs of the end-users. In this paper, we present a two-variable model of the term structures of futures prices and volatilities assuming that the spot and long-term prices of oil are stochastic, and are the main determinants of the convenience yield function. Although the resulting convenience yield is stochastic, the model admits an analytic formulation under some restrictions. (author)

  17. Biological treatment: Soil impacted with crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbertson, N.; Severns, J.J.

    1992-01-01

    Biological land treatment proved to be a successful way to manage contamination at a California oil and gas production property. During the project, approximately 120,000 yards of contaminated soil was treated in the treatment plots to below the cleanup goals of 1,000 milligrams per kilograms (mg/kg) total petroleum hydrocarbons. In general, remaining hydrocarbon levels in treated soil were the 200 mg/kg total petroleum hydrocarbons range or lower. Cleanup goals were achieved in less than 2 months for each lift of soil treated. The treated soil was used as fill material in the excavation. No significant odor problems occurred during the project. Groundwater monitoring confirmed that no impact to groundwater occurred due to the biological land treatment process. Design of the treatment plan and regulatory requirements are also discussed

  18. Microbial ecology of methanogenic crude oil biodegradation; from microbial consortia to heavy oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Head, Ian M.; Maguire, Michael J.; Sherry, Angela; Grant, Russell; Gray, Neil D.; Aitken, Carolyn M.; Martin Jones, D.; Oldenburg, Thomas B.P.; Larter, Stephen R. [Petroleum Research Group, Geosciences, University of Calgary (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents the microbial ecology of methanogenic crude oil biodegradation. Biodegraded petroleum reservoirs are one of the most dramatic indications of the deep biosphere. It is estimated that heavy oil and oil sands will account for a considerable amount of energy production in the future. Carbon, a major resource for deep subsurface microorganisms, and energy are contained in large quantities in petroleum reservoirs. The aerobic to anaerobic paradigm shift is explained. A key process for in-situ oil biodegradation in petroleum reservoirs is methanogenesis. New paradigms for in-reservoir crude oil biodegradation are discussed. Variations in anaerobic degradation of crude oil hydrocarbons are also discussed. A graph shows the different patterns of crude oil biodegradation under sulfate-reducing and methanogenic conditions. Alternative anaerobic alkane activation mechanisms are also shown. From the study, it can be concluded that methanogenic crude oil degradation is of global importance and led to the establishment of the world's enormous heavy oil deposits.

  19. Transatlantic natural gas price and oil price relationships - an empirical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasquez Josse, C.I.; Neumann, A.

    2006-09-01

    Markets for natural gas in industrialized countries have witnessed profound changes in the past two decades. Trade of natural gas at spot markets in North America and Europe expanded and intensified significantly as a direct result of liberalization efforts. We test the relationships of weekly prices for crude oil and natural gas on either side of the Atlantic Basin between 1999 and 2005. Applying co-integration methodology we identify a move toward integration of historically and geographically separated markets for the homogeneous commodity natural gas. (authors)

  20. Study of the gelation behaviour of Brazilian waxy crude oils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ziglio, C.M.; Sant' Ana, D.F. [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A., Petrobras, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The precipitation of wax from crude oil results in the formation of a paraffin network which evolves into a gel structure, causing a major operating issue for the petroleum industry. A gelled oil in a pipeline may need a very high re-start pressure that is beyond the capacity of the pump. The gelation of the oil can also develop into a wax deposit on the pipeline wall that restricts the flow of crude oil. Rheometry tests were used in this study to determine the yielding process of wax gels formed by the cooling of Brazilian crude oils. The effect of selected chemical additives on the gel strength was also examined. Dynamic rheology was used to study the oil-gel transition under quiescent conditions. Two rheological methods were used to study the gel yield stress, which is related to the gel strength. In the Creep and Recovery method, a stress was applied to the sample for a short period while the resulting deformation was measured. The stress was then removed to allow the sample to recover the gel structure. The steps of creep and recovery were repeated with an increasing stress value. The yield stress was identified as the minimum stress to cause an irreversible deformation in the sample. The yield stress of the gelled oil was estimated through dynamic measurements. Gel breakdown occurred when the sample was submitted to a critical strain, which is related to the yield stress value. This study showed that the gelation temperature can be reduced considerably by adding small amounts of readily available additives. These additives have an influence on yield stress values. In a cold re-start situation, they can reduce the pump pressure.