Framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national carbon Emissions reduction target: Focused on educational facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koo, Choongwan; Kim, Hyunjoong; Hong, Taehoon

2014-01-01

Since the increase in greenhouse gas emissions has increased the global warming potential, an international agreement on carbon emissions reduction target (CERT) has been formulated in Kyoto Protocol (1997). This study aimed to develop a framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national CERT. To verify the feasibility of the proposed framework, educational facilities were used for a case study. This study was conducted in six steps: (i) selection of the target school; (ii) establishment of the reference model for the target school; (iii) energy consumption pattern analysis by target school; (iv) establishment of the energy retrofit model for the target school; (v) economic and environmental assessment through the life cycle cost and life cycle CO 2 analysis; and (vi) establishment of the low-carbon scenario in 2020 to achieve the national CERT. This study can help facility managers or policymakers establish the optimal retrofit strategy within the limited budget from a short-term perspective and the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national CERT from the long-term perspective. The proposed framework could be also applied to any other building type or country in the global environment

Target dependence of K+-nucleus total cross sections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, M.F.; Ernst, D.J.; Chen, C.M.

1995-01-01

We investigate the total cross section and its target dependence for K + -nucleus scattering using a relativistic momentum-space optical potential model which incorporates relativistically normalized wave functions, invariant two-body amplitudes, covariant kinematics, and an exact full-Fermi averaging integral. The definition of the total cross section in the presence of a Coulomb interaction is reviewed and the total cross section is calculated in a way that is consistent with what is extracted from experiment. In addition, the total cross sections for a nucleus and for the deuteron are calculated utilizing the same theory. This minimizes the dependence of the ratio of these cross sections on the details of the theory. The model dependence of the first-order optical potential calculations is investigated. The theoretical results are found to be systematically below all existing data

Scenario analysis of energy saving and CO_2 emissions reduction potentials to ratchet up Japanese mitigation target in 2030 in the residential sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wakiyama, Takako; Kuramochi, Takeshi

2017-01-01

This paper assesses to what extent CO_2 emissions from electricity in the residential sector can be further reduced in Japan beyond its post-2020 mitigation target (known as “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)”). The paper examines the reduction potential of electricity demand and CO_2 emissions in the residential sector by conducting a scenario analysis. Electricity consumption scenarios are set up using a time-series regression model, and used to forecast the electricity consumption patterns to 2030. The scenario analysis also includes scenarios that reduce electricity consumption through enhanced energy efficiency and energy saving measures. The obtained results show that Japan can reduce electricity consumption and CO_2 emissions in the residential sector in 2030 more than the Japanese post-2020 mitigation target indicates. At the maximum, the electricity consumption could be reduced by 35 TWh, which contributes to 55.4 MtCO_2 of emissions reduction in 2030 compared to 2013 if the voluntarily targeted CO_2 intensity of electricity is achieved. The result implies that Japan has the potential to ratchet up post-2020 mitigation targets discussed under the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). - Highlights: • Further reduction of electricity consumption is possible beyond Japan's post-2020 mitigation target. • Energy saving efforts by households and incentives to reduce electricity demands are required. • Improvement of CO_2 intensity from electricity is a key factor in the reduction of CO_2 emissions.

A General Method for Targeted Quantitative Cross-Linking Mass Spectrometry.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan D Chavez

Full Text Available Chemical cross-linking mass spectrometry (XL-MS provides protein structural information by identifying covalently linked proximal amino acid residues on protein surfaces. The information gained by this technique is complementary to other structural biology methods such as x-ray crystallography, NMR and cryo-electron microscopy[1]. The extension of traditional quantitative proteomics methods with chemical cross-linking can provide information on the structural dynamics of protein structures and protein complexes. The identification and quantitation of cross-linked peptides remains challenging for the general community, requiring specialized expertise ultimately limiting more widespread adoption of the technique. We describe a general method for targeted quantitative mass spectrometric analysis of cross-linked peptide pairs. We report the adaptation of the widely used, open source software package Skyline, for the analysis of quantitative XL-MS data as a means for data analysis and sharing of methods. We demonstrate the utility and robustness of the method with a cross-laboratory study and present data that is supported by and validates previously published data on quantified cross-linked peptide pairs. This advance provides an easy to use resource so that any lab with access to a LC-MS system capable of performing targeted quantitative analysis can quickly and accurately measure dynamic changes in protein structure and protein interactions.

Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contaldi, Mario

2005-01-01

This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

Effects of target shape and reflection on laser radar cross sections.

Science.gov (United States)

Steinvall, O

2000-08-20

Laser radar cross sections have been evaluated for a number of ideal targets such as cones, spheres, paraboloids, and cylinders by use of different reflection characteristics. The time-independent cross section is the ratio of the cross section of one of these forms to that of a plate with the same maximum radius. The time-dependent laser radar cross section involves the impulse response from the object shape multiplied by the beam's transverse profile and the surface bidirectional reflection distribution function. It can be clearly seen that knowledge of the combined effect of object shape and reflection characteristics is important for determining the shape and the magnitude of the laser radar return. The results of this study are of interest for many laser radar applications such as ranging, three-dimensional imaging-modeling, tracking, antisensor lasers, and target recognition.

Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

2006-01-01

Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

Total fragmentation cross section of 158A GeV lead projectiles in Cu target

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mukhtar Ahmed Rana; Shahid Manzoor

2008-01-01

Total fragmentation cross section for the reaction 158A Pb ions + Cu target is measured using the most sensitive track detector CR-39. Measured values are compared with calculations. Exposures of target-detector stack with 158A Pb projectiles are made at CERN-SPS beam facility. Results of calibration of CR-39 detector in a charge region (63≤Z≤83) are also reported, which can be used for high energy particle identification using CR-39 and in determination of partial charge changing cross sections. The charge resolution σ Z achieved by this technique is about 0.2e. A systematic dependence of total fragmentation cross section on target properties is revealed and the corresponding results are presented. (authors)

Radar cross-section (RCS) analysis of high frequency surface wave radar targets

OpenAIRE

ÇAKIR, Gonca; SEVGİ, Levent

2010-01-01

Realistic high frequency surface wave radar (HFSWR) targets are investigated numerically in terms of electromagnetic wave -- target interactions. Radar cross sections (RCS) of these targets are simulated via both the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method and the Method of Moments (MoM). The virtual RCS prediction tool that was introduced in previous work is used for these investigations. The virtual tool automatically creates the discrete FDTD model of the target under investi...

Total Fragmentation Cross Section of 158A GeV Lead Projectiles in Cu Target

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rana, Mukhtar Ahmed

2008-01-01

Total fragmentation cross section for the reaction 158 A Pb ions + Cu target is measured using the most sensitive track detector CR-39. Measured values are compared with calculations. Exposures of target-detector stack with 158A Pb projectiles are made at CERN-SPS beam facility. Results of calibration of CR-39 detector in a charge region (63 ≤ Z ≤ 83) are also reported, which can be used for high energy particle identification using CR-39 and in determination of partial charge changing cross sections. The charge resolution σ z achieved by this technique is about 0.2e. A systematic dependence of total fragmentation cross section on target properties is revealed and the corresponding results are presented. (nuclear physics)

Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

Science.gov (United States)

Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle

2017-05-23

The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

2014-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

Demonstration of ITER operational scenarios on DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyle, E.J.; DeBoo, J.C.; Ferron, J.R.; Jackson, G.L.; Luce, T.C.; Osborne, T.H.; Politzer, P.A.; Groebner, R.J.; Hyatt, A.W.; La Haye, R.J.; Petrie, T.W.; Petty, C.C.; Murakami, M.; Park, J.-M.; Reimerdes, H.; Budny, R.V.; Casper, T.A.; Holcomb, C.T.; Challis, C.D.; McKee, G.R.

2010-01-01

The DIII-D programme has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g. the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for β N and H 98 , have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modelling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios, normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of ≥400 MW of fusion power production and Q ≥ 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of edge localized modes, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the physics requirements for the poloidal field coil set at 15 MA, based on observations that the inductance in the baseline scenario case evolves to a value that lies outside the original ITER specification.

Demonstration of ITER Operational Scenarios on DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyle, E.J.; Budny, R.V.; DeBoo, J.C.; Ferron, J.R.; Jackson, G.L.; Luce, T.C.; Murakami, M.; Osborne, T.H.; Park, J.; Politzer, P.A.; Reimerdes, H.; Casper, T.A.; Challis, C.D.; Groebner, R.J.; Holcomb, C.T.; Hyatt, A.W.; La Haye, R.J.; McKee, G.R.; Petrie, T.W.; Petty, C.C.; Rhodes, T.L.; Shafer, M.W.; Snyder, P.B.; Strait, E.J; Wade, M.R.; Wang, G.; West, W.P.; Zeng, L.

2008-01-01

The DIII-D program has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g., the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for β N and H 98 , have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modeling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of (ge) 400 MW of fusion power production and Q (ge) 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of ELMs, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the specified operating range in internal inductance at 15 MA for the poloidal field coil set, based on observations that the measured inductance in the baseline scenario case lay outside the original ITER specification

Estimation of Radar Cross Section of a Target under Track

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong Sun-Mog

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In allocating radar beam for tracking a target, it is attempted to maintain the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR of signal returning from the illuminated target close to an optimum value for efficient track updates. An estimate of the average radar cross section (RCS of the target is required in order to adjust transmitted power based on the estimate such that a desired SNR can be realized. In this paper, a maximum-likelihood (ML approach is presented for estimating the average RCS, and a numerical solution to the approach is proposed based on a generalized expectation maximization (GEM algorithm. Estimation accuracy of the approach is compared to that of a previously reported procedure.

Thick-target method in the measurement of inner-shell ionization cross-sections by low-energy electron impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An, Z.; Wu, Y.; Liu, M.T.; Duan, Y.M.; Tang, C.H.

2006-01-01

In this paper, we have studied the thick-target method for the measurements of atomic inner-shell ionization cross-section or X-ray production cross-section by keV electron impact. We find that in the processes of electron impact on the thick targets, the ratios of the characteristic X-ray yields of photoelectric ionization by bremsstrahlung to the total characteristic X-ray yields are Z-dependent and shell-dependent, and the ratios also show the weak energy-dependence. In addition, in the lower incident energy region (i.e. U < 5-6), the contribution from the rediffusion effect and the secondary electrons can be negligible. In general, the thick-target method can be appropriately applied to the measurements of atomic inner-shell ionization cross-sections or X-ray production cross-sections by electron impact for low and medium Z elements in the lower incident electron energy (i.e. U < 5-6). The experimental accuracies by the thick-target method can reach to the level equivalent or superior to the accuracies of experimental data based on the thin-target method. This thick-target method has been applied to the measurement of K-shell ionization cross-sections of Ni element by electron impact in this paper

Alkali reversal of psoralen cross-link for the targeted delivery of psoralen monoadduct lesion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeung, A.T.; Dinehart, W.J.; Jones, B.K.

1988-01-01

Psoralen intercalates into double-stranded DNA and photoreacts mainly with thymines to form monoadducts and interstrand cross-links. The authors used an oligonucleotide model to demonstrate a novel mechanism: the reversal of psoralen cross-links by base-catalyzed rearrangement at 90 0 C (BCR). The BCR reaction is more efficient than the photoreversal reaction. They show that the BCR occurs predominantly on the furan side of a psoralen cross-link. The cleavage does not result in the breaking of the DNA backbone, and the thymine based freed from the cross-link by the cleavage reaction appears to be unmodified. Similarly, BCR of the furan-side monoadduct of psoralen removed the psoralen molecule and regenerated the unaltered native oligonucleotide. The pyrone-side psoralen monoadduct is relatively resistant to BCR. One can use BCR to perform efficient oligonucleotide-directed, site-specific delivery of a psoralen monoadduct. As a demonstration of this approach, they have hybridized a 19 base long oligonucleotide vehicle containing a furan-side psoralen monoadduct to a 56 base long complementary oligonucleotide target strand and formed a specific cross-link at the target site with 365-nm UV. Subsequent BCR released the oligonucleotide vehicle and deposited the psoralen at the target site

Cross checking of the new capabilities of the fuel cycle scenario code TR-EVOL - 5229

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merino-Rodriguez, I.; Garcia-Martinez, M.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.

2015-01-01

This work is intended to cross check the new capabilities of the fuel cycle scenario code TR-EVOL by means of comparing its results with those published in bibliography. This process has been divided in two stages as follows. The first stage is dedicated to check the improvements in the material management part of the fuel cycle code (the nuclear fuel mass balance estimation). The Spanish nuclear fuel cycle has been chosen as the model for the mass balance comparison given that the fuel mass per reactor is available in bibliography. The second stage has been focused in verifying the validity of the TR-EVOL economic module. The economic model verification has been carried out by making use of the ARCAS EU project and its economic assessments for advanced reactors and scenarios involving fast reactors and ADS. As conclusions, the main finding from the first stage includes that TR-EVOL provides a prediction of mass values quite accurate after the improvements and when using the proper parameters as input for the code. For the second stage, results were highly satisfactory since a difference smaller than 3% can be found regarding results published by the ARCAS project (NRG estimations). Furthermore, concerning the Decommissioning, Dismantling and Disposal cost, results are highly acceptable (7% difference in the comparison with the final disposal in a once-through scenario and around 11% in a final disposal with a reprocessing strategy) given the difficulties to find in bibliography detailed information about the costs of the final disposals and the significant uncertainties involved in design concepts and related unit costs

Breakup and fusion cross sections of the 6Li nucleus with targets of mass A = 58, 144 and 208

Science.gov (United States)

Mukeru, B.; Rampho, G. J.; Lekala, M. L.

2018-04-01

We use the continuum discretized coupled channels method to investigate the effects of continuum-continuum coupling on the breakup and fusion cross sections of the weakly bound 6Li nucleus with the 58Ni, 144Sm and 208Pb nuclear targets. The cross sections were analyzed at incident energies E cm below, close to and above the Coulomb barrier V B. We found that for the medium and heavy targets, the breakup cross sections are enhanced at energies below the Coulomb barrier (E cm/V B ≤ 0.8) owing to these couplings. For the lighter target, relatively small enhancement of the breakup cross sections appear at energies well below the barrier (E cm/V B ≤ 0.6). At energies E cm/V B > 0.8 for medium and heavy targets, and E cm/V B > 0.6 for the light target, the continuum-continuum couplings substantially suppress the breakup cross sections. On the other hand, the fusion cross sections are enhanced at energies E cm/V B fusion cross sections. We also compared the breakup and fusion cross sections, and found that below the barrier, the breakup cross sections are more dominant regardless of whether continuum-continuum couplings are included.

Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

2016-04-01

There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

HARP targets pion production cross section and yield measurements. Implications for MiniBooNE neutrino flux

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wickremasinghe, Don Athula Abeyarathna [Univ. of Cincinnati, OH (United States)

2015-07-01

The prediction of the muon neutrino flux from a 71.0 cm long beryllium target for the MiniBooNE experiment is based on a measured pion production cross section which was taken from a short beryllium target (2.0 cm thick - 5% nuclear interaction length) in the Hadron Production (HARP) experiment at CERN. To verify the extrapolation to our longer target, HARP also measured the pion production from 20.0 cm and 40.0 cm beryllium targets. The measured production yields, d²N^π± (p; θ )=dpd Ω, on targets of 50% and 100% nuclear interaction lengths in the kinematic rage of momentum from 0.75 GeV/c to 6.5 GeV/c and the range of angle from 30 mrad to 210 mrad are presented along with an update of the short target cross sections. The best fitted extended Sanford-Wang (SW) model parameterization for updated short beryllium target π⁺ production cross section is presented. Yield measurements for all three targets are also compared with that from the Monte Carlo predictions in the MiniBooNE experiment for different SW parameterization. The comparisons of v_μ flux predictions for updated SW model is presented.

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Target-type probability combining algorithms for multisensor tracking

Science.gov (United States)

Wigren, Torbjorn

2001-08-01

Algorithms for the handing of target type information in an operational multi-sensor tracking system are presented. The paper discusses recursive target type estimation, computation of crosses from passive data (strobe track triangulation), as well as the computation of the quality of the crosses for deghosting purposes. The focus is on Bayesian algorithms that operate in the discrete target type probability space, and on the approximations introduced for computational complexity reduction. The centralized algorithms are able to fuse discrete data from a variety of sensors and information sources, including IFF equipment, ESM's, IRST's as well as flight envelopes estimated from track data. All algorithms are asynchronous and can be tuned to handle clutter, erroneous associations as well as missed and erroneous detections. A key to obtain this ability is the inclusion of data forgetting by a procedure for propagation of target type probability states between measurement time instances. Other important properties of the algorithms are their abilities to handle ambiguous data and scenarios. The above aspects are illustrated in a simulations study. The simulation setup includes 46 air targets of 6 different types that are tracked by 5 airborne sensor platforms using ESM's and IRST's as data sources.

A Monte Carlo calculation of the pionium break-up probability with different sets of pionium target cross sections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santamarina, C; Schumann, M; Afanasyev, L G; Heim, T

2003-01-01

Chiral perturbation theory predicts the lifetime of pionium, a hydrogen-like π + π - atom, to better than 3% precision. The goal of the DIRAC experiment at CERN is to obtain and check this value experimentally by measuring the break-up probability of pionium in a target. In order to accurately measure the lifetime one needs to know the relationship between the break-up probability and the lifetime to 1% accuracy. We have obtained this dependence by modelling the evolution of pionic atoms in the target using Monte Carlo methods. The model relies on the computation of the pionium-target-atom interaction cross sections. Three different sets of pionium-target cross sections with varying degrees of complexity were used: from the simplest first-order Born approximation involving only the electrostatic interaction to a more advanced approach, taking into account multiphoton exchanges and relativistic effects. We conclude that, in order to obtain the pionium lifetime to 1% accuracy from the break-up probability, the pionium-target cross sections must be known with the same accuracy for the low excited bound states of the pionic atom. This result has been achieved, for low Z targets, with the two most precise cross section sets. For large Z targets only the set accounting for multiphoton exchange satisfies the condition

Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

Fragmentation cross sections of relativistic 8436Kr and 10947Ag nuclei in targets from hydrogen to lead

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nilsen, B.S.; Waddington, C.J.; Cummings, J.R.; Garrard, T.L.; Klarmann, J.

1995-01-01

With the addition of krypton and silver projectiles we have extended our previous studies of the fragmentation of heavy relativistic nuclei in targets ranging in mass from hydrogen to lead. These projectiles were studied at a number of discrete energies between 450 and 1500A MeV. The total and partial charge-changing cross sections were determined for each energy, target, and projectile, and the values compared with previous predictions. A new parametrization of the dependence of the total charge-changing cross sections on the target and projectile is introduced, based on nuclear charge radii derived from electron scattering. We have also parametrized the energy dependence of the total cross sections over the range of energies studied. New parameters were found for a previous representation of the partial charge-changing cross sections in hydrogen and a new parametrization has been introduced for the nonhydrogen targets. The evidence that limiting fragmentation has been attained for these relatively light projectile nuclei at Bevalac energies is shown to be inconclusive, and further measurements at higher energies will be needed to address this question

Measurement of the $^{7}$Be$(p,\\gamma)^{8}$B Cross-Section with an Implanted Target

CERN Document Server

2002-01-01

% IS366\\\\ \\\\ The $^7$Be(p,$\\gamma)^8$B capture reaction is of major importance to the physics of the sun and the issues of the ``solar neutrino puzzle'' and neutrino masses. We report here on a new determination of the absolute cross section of this reaction, using a novel method which overcomes some of the major experimental uncertainties of previous measurements. We utilize an implanted $^7$Be target and a uniformly scanned particle beam larger than the target spot, eliminating issues of target homogeneity and backscattering loss of $^8$B reaction products. The target was produced using a beam of 1.8 10$^{10}$/s $^7$Be nuclei extracted at ISOLDE(CERN) from a graphite target bombarded by 1 GeV protons in a two-step resonant laser ionization source. The $^7$Be nuclei were directly implanted into a copper substrate to obtain a target of 2 mm diameter with a total of 3.10$^{15}$ atoms. The measurement of the $^8$B production cross section was carried out at the Van de Graaff laboratory of the Weizmann Institute...

TNF-Induced Target Cell Killing by CTL Activated through Cross-Presentation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dirk Wohlleber

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Viruses can escape cytotoxic T cell (CTL immunity by avoiding presentation of viral components via endogenous MHC class I antigen presentation in infected cells. Cross-priming of viral antigens circumvents such immune escape by allowing noninfected dendritic cells to activate virus-specific CTLs, but they remain ineffective against infected cells in which immune escape is functional. Here, we show that cross-presentation of antigen released from adenovirus-infected hepatocytes by liver sinusoidal endothelial cells stimulated cross-primed effector CTLs to release tumor necrosis factor (TNF, which killed virus-infected hepatocytes through caspase activation. TNF receptor signaling specifically eliminated infected hepatocytes that showed impaired anti-apoptotic defense. Thus, CTL immune surveillance against infection relies on two similarly important but distinct effector functions that are both MHC restricted, requiring either direct antigen recognition on target cells and canonical CTL effector function or cross-presentation and a noncanonical effector function mediated by TNF.

TNF-induced target cell killing by CTL activated through cross-presentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wohlleber, Dirk; Kashkar, Hamid; Gärtner, Katja; Frings, Marianne K; Odenthal, Margarete; Hegenbarth, Silke; Börner, Carolin; Arnold, Bernd; Hämmerling, Günter; Nieswandt, Bernd; van Rooijen, Nico; Limmer, Andreas; Cederbrant, Karin; Heikenwalder, Mathias; Pasparakis, Manolis; Protzer, Ulrike; Dienes, Hans-Peter; Kurts, Christian; Krönke, Martin; Knolle, Percy A

2012-09-27

Viruses can escape cytotoxic T cell (CTL) immunity by avoiding presentation of viral components via endogenous MHC class I antigen presentation in infected cells. Cross-priming of viral antigens circumvents such immune escape by allowing noninfected dendritic cells to activate virus-specific CTLs, but they remain ineffective against infected cells in which immune escape is functional. Here, we show that cross-presentation of antigen released from adenovirus-infected hepatocytes by liver sinusoidal endothelial cells stimulated cross-primed effector CTLs to release tumor necrosis factor (TNF), which killed virus-infected hepatocytes through caspase activation. TNF receptor signaling specifically eliminated infected hepatocytes that showed impaired anti-apoptotic defense. Thus, CTL immune surveillance against infection relies on two similarly important but distinct effector functions that are both MHC restricted, requiring either direct antigen recognition on target cells and canonical CTL effector function or cross-presentation and a noncanonical effector function mediated by TNF. Copyright © 2012 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies; Etude detaillee des scenarios de transmutation faisant appel aux technologies actuelles pour les reacteurs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-07-01

This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

FrFT-CSWSF: Estimating cross-range velocities of ground moving targets using multistatic synthetic aperture radar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Chenlei

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Estimating cross-range velocity is a challenging task for space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR, which is important for ground moving target indication (GMTI. Because the velocity of a target is very small compared with that of the satellite, it is difficult to correctly estimate it using a conventional monostatic platform algorithm. To overcome this problem, a novel method employing multistatic SAR is presented in this letter. The proposed hybrid method, which is based on an extended space-time model (ESTIM of the azimuth signal, has two steps: first, a set of finite impulse response (FIR filter banks based on a fractional Fourier transform (FrFT is used to separate multiple targets within a range gate; second, a cross-correlation spectrum weighted subspace fitting (CSWSF algorithm is applied to each of the separated signals in order to estimate their respective parameters. As verified through computer simulation with the constellations of Cartwheel, Pendulum and Helix, this proposed time-frequency-subspace method effectively improves the estimation precision of the cross-range velocities of multiple targets.

Preventive health services implemented by family physicians in Portugal—a cross-sectional study based on two clinical scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Martins, Carlos; Azevedo, Luís Filipe; Santos, Cristina; Sá, Luísa; Santos, Paulo; Couto, Maria; Pereira, Altamiro; Hespanhol, Alberto

2014-01-01

Objectives To assess whether Portuguese family physicians perform preventive health services in accordance with scientific evidence, based on the recommendations of the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF). Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Primary healthcare, Portuguese National Health Service. Participants 255 Portuguese family physicians selected by a stratified cluster sampling design were invited to participate in a computer-assisted telephone survey. Outcomes Prevalence of compliance with USPSTF recommendations for screening, given a male and female clinical scenario and a set of proposed medical interventions, including frequency of the intervention and performance in their own daily practice. Results A response rate of 95.7% was obtained (n=244). 98–100% of family physicians answered according to the USPSTF recommendations in most interventions. In the male scenario, the lowest concordance was observed in the evaluation of prostate-specific antigen with 37% of family physicians answering according to the USPSTF recommendations. In the female scenario, the lowest concordance was for cholesterol testing with 2% of family physicians complying. Family physicians younger than 50 years had significantly better compliance scores than older ones (mean 77% vs 72%; p<0.001). Conclusions We found a high degree of agreement with USPSTF recommendations among Portuguese family physicians. However, we also found results suggesting excessive use of some medical interventions, raising concerns related to possible harm associated with overdiagnosis and overtreatment. PMID:24861550

Cross-roads of planet earth's life : exploring means to meet the 2010 biodiversity target : solution-oriented scenarios for Global Biodiversity Outlook 2

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brink, ten B.J.E.; Alkemade, R.; Bakkenes, M.; Clement, J.; Eickhout, B.; Fish, L.; Heer, de H.; Kram, T.; Manders, T.; Meijl, van H.; Miles, L.; Nellemann, C.; Lysenko, I.; Oorschot, van M.; Smout, F.; Tabeau, A.A.; Vuuren, van D.; Westhoek, H.

2007-01-01

A scenario study from 2000 to 2050 has been performed (by Natuur en Milieuplanbureau, UNEP and WCMC) to explore the effects of future economic, demographic and technical developments on environmental pressures and global biodiversity. Policy options that affect global biodiversity were analysed on

Characterization of 22Ne implanted target by 22Ne(p,γ)23Na resonance reaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bisoi, Abhijit; Saha Sarkar, M.; Desai, C.A.; Tribedi, L.C.; Jung, H.S.; Setoodehnia, K.; Lyons, S.; Görres, J.; Stech, Ed; Robertson, D.; Wiescher, M.

2013-01-01

Studies of nuclear reactions relevant to astrophysical scenario, often require measurement of cross section in picobarn to nano-barn range (1 barn = 10 −24 cm 2 ). So we need targets which are isotopically pure and can withstand high beam load over a long time. Even the backings used should contain no or very low concentration of impurities. Implantation technique has been found to be one of the most effective methods to produce such targets

Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

2017-04-01

In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy

Water flow experiments and analyses on the cross-flow type mercury target model with the flow guide plates

CERN Document Server

Haga, K; Kaminaga, M; Hino, R

2001-01-01

A mercury target is used in the spallation neutron source driven by a high-intensity proton accelerator. In this study, the effectiveness of the cross-flow type mercury target structure was evaluated experimentally and analytically. Prior to the experiment, the mercury flow field and the temperature distribution in the target container were analyzed assuming a proton beam energy and power of 1.5 GeV and 5 MW, respectively, and the feasibility of the cross-flow type target was evaluated. Then the average water flow velocity field in the target mock-up model, which was fabricated from Plexiglass for a water experiment, was measured at room temperature using the PIV technique. Water flow analyses were conducted and the analytical results were compared with the experimental results. The experimental results showed that the cross-flow could be realized in most of the proton beam path area and the analytical result of the water flow velocity field showed good correspondence to the experimental results in the case w...

Joint passive radar tracking and target classification using radar cross section

Science.gov (United States)

Herman, Shawn M.

2004-01-01

We present a recursive Bayesian solution for the problem of joint tracking and classification of airborne targets. In our system, we allow for complications due to multiple targets, false alarms, and missed detections. More importantly, though, we utilize the full benefit of a joint approach by implementing our tracker using an aerodynamically valid flight model that requires aircraft-specific coefficients such as wing area and vehicle mass, which are provided by our classifier. A key feature that bridges the gap between tracking and classification is radar cross section (RCS). By modeling the true deterministic relationship that exists between RCS and target aspect, we are able to gain both valuable class information and an estimate of target orientation. However, the lack of a closed-form relationship between RCS and target aspect prevents us from using the Kalman filter or its variants. Instead, we rely upon a sequential Monte Carlo-based approach known as particle filtering. In addition to allowing us to include RCS as a measurement, the particle filter also simplifies the implementation of our nonlinear non-Gaussian flight model.

Effective source of bremsstrahlung with multiple crossing of a thin target by an electron beam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grishin, V.K.; Ishkhanov, B.S.; Shvedunov, V.I.

1996-01-01

A basically new scheme of electron beam discharge to the target for x ray and gamma radiation generation is proposed. In this case an accelerated electron beam crosses a thin braking target many times, which substantially increases the integral radiation yield. 3 refs.; 2 figs

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rosa, IMD

2017-09-01

Full Text Available & Evolution, vol. 1: 1416-1419 Multiscale scenarios for nature futures Rosa IMD Pereira HM Ferrier S Alkemade R Acosta LA Akcakaya HR den Belder E Fazel AM Fujimori S Sitas NE ABSTRACT: Targets for human development are increasingly...

Simulated Performance Evaluation of a Selective Tracker Through Random Scenario Generation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar

2006-01-01

performance assessment. Therefore, a random target motion scenario is adopted. Its implementation in particular for testing the proposed selective track splitting algorithm using Kalman filters is investigated through a number of performance parameters which gives the activity profile of the tracking scenario......  The paper presents a simulation study on the performance of a target tracker using selective track splitting filter algorithm through a random scenario implemented on a digital signal processor.  In a typical track splitting filter all the observation which fall inside a likelihood ellipse...... are used for update, however, in our proposed selective track splitting filter less number of observations are used for track update.  Much of the previous performance work [1] has been done on specific (deterministic) scenarios. One of the reasons for considering the specific scenarios, which were...

NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

Reaction and fission cross-sections of 750AMeV 238U ions on Pb, Cu and AI-targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hesse, M.; Aumann, T.; Czajkowski, S.; Dessagne, P.; Hanelt, E.; Kozhuharov, C.; Miehe, C.; Pfuetzner, M.; Roehl, C.; Schwab, W.; Stephan, C.; Tassan-Got, L.

1995-09-01

Charge-loss and fission cross-sections of 238 U at 750 A.MeV were measured on Al, Cu and Pb targets. The charge-loss rate was obtained by the attenuation method. Fission was selected by detecting the pair of highly ionizing fragments. Since the neutron-loss cross sections were measured in a parallel experiment for the same projectiles, all cross sections contributing to 238 U collisions on nuclei are available now as function of the target mass number and can be compared with current models. (orig.)

An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

2005-09-30

Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

Exploiting target amplitude information to improve multi-target tracking

Science.gov (United States)

Ehrman, Lisa M.; Blair, W. Dale

2006-05-01

Closely-spaced (but resolved) targets pose a challenge for measurement-to-track data association algorithms. Since the Mahalanobis distances between measurements collected on closely-spaced targets and tracks are similar, several elements of the corresponding kinematic measurement-to-track cost matrix are also similar. Lacking any other information on which to base assignments, it is not surprising that data association algorithms make mistakes. One ad hoc approach for mitigating this problem is to multiply the kinematic measurement-to-track likelihoods by amplitude likelihoods. However, this can actually be detrimental to the measurement-to-track association process. With that in mind, this paper pursues a rigorous treatment of the hypothesis probabilities for kinematic measurements and features. Three simple scenarios are used to demonstrate the impact of basing data association decisions on these hypothesis probabilities for Rayleigh, fixed-amplitude, and Rician targets. The first scenario assumes that the tracker carries two tracks but only one measurement is collected. This provides insight into more complex scenarios in which there are fewer measurements than tracks. The second scenario includes two measurements and one track. This extends naturally to the case with more measurements than tracks. Two measurements and two tracks are present in the third scenario, which provides insight into the performance of this method when the number of measurements equals the number of tracks. In all cases, basing data association decisions on the hypothesis probabilities leads to good results.

Spin Interactions and Cross-checks of Polarization in NH$_{3}$ Target

CERN Document Server

Kiselev, Yu; Doshita, N; Gautheron, F; Hess, Ch; Iwata, T; Koivuniemi, J; Kondo, K; Magnon, A; Mallot, G; Michigami, T; Meyer, W; Reicherz, G

2008-01-01

We study the magnetic structure of irradiated ammonia (NH$_{3}$) polarized by Dynamic Nuclear Polarization method at 0.2 K and at 2.5 T field. In this material, the electron spins, induced by ionizing radiation, couple $^{14}$N and $^{1}$H spins by the indirect spin-spin interaction. As a result, the local frequencies of $^{1}$H-spins are varied depending on $^{14}$N spin polarizations and lead to an asymmetry in the proton signal. This asymmetry allowes a good detection of $^{14}$N spins directly on the proton Larmor frequency. In the long COMPASS target at CERN, we use the cross-checks between spectral asymmetries and integral polarizations to decrease the relative error for longitudinal target polarizations up to $\\pm$2.0%.

Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Fung-Fei; Chou, Seng-Cho; Lu, Tai-Ken

2013-01-01

For this study, we constructed the following three case scenarios based on the Taiwanese government's energy policy: a normal scenario, the 2008 “Sustainable Energy Policy Convention” scenario, and the 2011 “New Energy Policy” scenario. We then employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model to compare the three case scenarios' energy mix for power generation for the next å15 years to further explore their possible impact on the electricity sector. The results provide a reference for forming future energy policies and developing strategic responses. - Highlights: • We constructed three case scenarios based on the Taiwan government's energy policy. • We employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning optimization model. • A significant gap exists between the carbon reduction target and baseline. • The carbon reduction target requires a holistic resolution needed taking seriously

Analysis of global warming stabilization scenarios. The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kainuma, Mikiko; Morita, Tsuneyuki; Masui, Toshihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2004-01-01

This paper analyzes the economic and climatic impacts of the EMF 19 emission scenarios. A reference scenario, three emission scenarios targeting 550 ppmv atmospheric concentration, and three tax scenarios are analyzed. The profiles of energy consumption and economic losses of each policy scenario are compared to the reference scenario. The model also estimates that global mean temperature will increase 1.7-2.9 C in 2100, and the sea level will rise 40-51 cm, compared to the 1990 levels under the EMF scenarios. Impacts on food productivity and malaria infection are estimated to be very severe in some countries in the Asian region

Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dlhopolsky, R; Hollmann, R; Mueller, J; Stuhlmann, R [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

1998-12-31

The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dlhopolsky, R.; Hollmann, R.; Mueller, J.; Stuhlmann, R. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

1997-12-31

The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

2016-01-01

This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social

The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

2016-01-01

We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ‘easy’ scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty. (paper)

Differential neutron production cross sections and neutron yields from stopping-length targets for 113-MeV protons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meier, M.M.; Amian, W.B.; Clark, D.A.; Goulding, C.A.; McClelland, J.B.; Morgan, G.L.; Moss, C.E.

1989-03-01

We have measured differential (P,ξn) cross sections, d 2 σ/dΩdE/sub n/, from thin targets and absolute neutron yields from stopping-length targets at angles of 7.5/degree/, 30/degree/, 60/degree/, and 150/degree/, for the 113--MeV proton bombardment of elemental beryllium, carbon, aluminum, iron, and depleted uranium. Additional cross-section measurements are reported for oxygen, tungsten, and lead. We used time-of-flight techniques to identify and discriminate against backgrounds and to determine the neutron energy spectrum. Comparison of the experimental data with intranuclear-cascade evaporation-model calculations with the code HETC showed discrepancies as high as a factor of 7 in the differential cross sections. These discrepancies in the differential cross sections make it possible to identify some of the good agreement seen in the stopping-length yield comparisons as fortuitous cancellation of incorrect production estimates in different energy regimes. 13 refs., 20 figs., 4 tabs

Analyzing the multiple-target-multiple-agent scenario using optimal assignment algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Kwok, Kwan S.; Driessen, Brian J.; Phillips, Cynthia A.; Tovey, Craig A.

1997-09-01

This work considers the problem of maximum utilization of a set of mobile robots with limited sensor-range capabilities and limited travel distances. The robots are initially in random positions. A set of robots properly guards or covers a region if every point within the region is within the effective sensor range of at least one vehicle. We wish to move the vehicles into surveillance positions so as to guard or cover a region, while minimizing the maximum distance traveled by any vehicle. This problem can be formulated as an assignment problem, in which we must optimally decide which robot to assign to which slot of a desired matrix of grid points. The cost function is the maximum distance traveled by any robot. Assignment problems can be solved very efficiently. Solution times for one hundred robots took only seconds on a silicon graphics crimson workstation. The initial positions of all the robots can be sampled by a central base station and their newly assigned positions communicated back to the robots. Alternatively, the robots can establish their own coordinate system with the origin fixed at one of the robots and orientation determined by the compass bearing of another robot relative to this robot. This paper presents example solutions to the multiple-target-multiple-agent scenario using a matching algorithm. Two separate cases with one hundred agents in each were analyzed using this method. We have found these mobile robot problems to be a very interesting application of network optimization methods, and we expect this to be a fruitful area for future research.

Analyzing the multiple-target-multiple-agent scenario using optimal assignment algorithms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwok, K.S.; Driessen, B.J.; Phillips, C.A.; Tovey, C.A.

1997-01-01

This work considers the problem of maximum utilization of a set of mobile robots with limited sensor-range capabilities and limited travel distances. The robots are initially in random positions. A set of robots properly guards or covers a region if every point within the region is within the effective sensor range of at least one vehicle. The authors wish to move the vehicles into surveillance positions so as to guard or cover a region, while minimizing the maximum distance traveled by any vehicle. This problem can be formulated as an assignment problem, in which they must optimally decide which robot to assign to which slot of a desired matrix of grid points. The cost function is the maximum distance traveled by any robot. Assignment problems can be solved very efficiently. Solutions times for one hundred robots took only seconds on a Silicon Graphics Crimson workstation. The initial positions of all the robots can be sampled by a central base station and their newly assigned positions communicated back to the robots. Alternatively, the robots can establish their own coordinate system with the origin fixed at one of the robots and orientation determined by the compass bearing of another robot relative to this robot. This paper presents example solutions to the multiple-target-multiple-agent scenario using a matching algorithm. Two separate cases with one hundred agents in each were analyzed using this method. They have found these mobile robot problems to be a very interesting application of network optimization methods, and they expect this to be a fruitful area for future research

Shell energy scenarios to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

Artificial neural network surrogate development of equivalence models for nuclear data uncertainty propagation in scenario studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krivtchik Guillaume

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Scenario studies simulate the whole fuel cycle over a period of time, from extraction of natural resources to geological storage. Through the comparison of different reactor fleet evolutions and fuel management options, they constitute a decision-making support. Consequently uncertainty propagation studies, which are necessary to assess the robustness of the studies, are strategic. Among numerous types of physical model in scenario computation that generate uncertainty, the equivalence models, built for calculating fresh fuel enrichment (for instance plutonium content in PWR MOX so as to be representative of nominal fuel behavior, are very important. The equivalence condition is generally formulated in terms of end-of-cycle mean core reactivity. As this results from a physical computation, it is therefore associated with an uncertainty. A state-of-the-art of equivalence models is exposed and discussed. It is shown that the existing equivalent models implemented in scenario codes, such as COSI6, are not suited to uncertainty propagation computation, for the following reasons: (i existing analytical models neglect irradiation, which has a strong impact on the result and its uncertainty; (ii current black-box models are not suited to cross-section perturbations management; and (iii models based on transport and depletion codes are too time-consuming for stochastic uncertainty propagation. A new type of equivalence model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN has been developed, constructed with data calculated with neutron transport and depletion codes. The model inputs are the fresh fuel isotopy, the irradiation parameters (burnup, core fractionation, etc., cross-sections perturbations and the equivalence criterion (for instance the core target reactivity in pcm at the end of the irradiation cycle. The model output is the fresh fuel content such that target reactivity is reached at the end of the irradiation cycle. Those models are built and

Requirements for design of accelerator, beam transport, and target in a study of thermonuclear reaction cross section

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Itahashi, T; Takahisa, K; Fujiwara, M; Toki, H; Ejiri, H [Osaka Univ., Ibaraki (Japan). Research Center for Nuclear Physics; Ohsumi, H; Komori, M

1997-03-01

A compact accelerator with high current ion source, low energy beam transport elements and windowless gas target was designed to investigate the thermonuclear reaction cross section. The idea of this project focused on the cross section measurement of the fusion reaction data {sup 3}He+{sup 3}He-{sup 4}He+p+p at 25keV. The system will be installed in Otoh Cosmo Observatory (1270m.w.e.) to get rid of the huge cosmic and environmental background. It consists of NANOGUN ECR ion source, focusing elements made of permanent magnets window less {sup 3}He gas target and/or He{sup 3} plasma target and detector telescopes with low noise and low background. Requirements for these were discussed technically and various ideas were proposed. (author)

Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

1986-12-01

Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

Search for compressed SUSY scenarios with the ATLAS detector

CERN Document Server

Maurer, Julien; The ATLAS collaboration

2017-01-01

Scenarios where multiple SUSY states are nearly degenerate in mass produce soft decay products, and they represent an experimental challenge for ATLAS. This talk presents recent results of analyses explicitly targeting such “compressed” scenarios with a variety of experimental techniques. All results make use of proton-proton collisions collected at a centre of mass of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector.

FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

2008-01-01

In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

Modelling cross-scale relationships between climate, hydrology, and individual animals: Generating scenarios for stream salamanders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philippe eGirard

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Hybrid modelling provides a unique opportunity to study cross-scale relationships in environmental systems by linking together models of global, regional, landscape, and local-scale processes, yet the approach is rarely applied to address conservation and management questions. Here, we demonstrate how a hybrid modelling approach can be used to assess the effect of cross-scale interactions on the survival of the Allegheny Mountain Dusky Salamander (Desmognathus ochrophaeus in response to changes in temperature and water availability induced by climate change at the northern limits of its distribution. To do so, we combine regional climate modelling with a landscape-scale integrated surface-groundwater flow model and an individual-based model of stream salamanders. On average, climate scenarios depict a warmer and wetter environment for the 2050 horizon. The increase in average annual temperature and extended hydrological activity time series in the future, combined with a better synchronization with the salamanders’ reproduction period, result in a significant increase in the long-term population viability of the salamanders. This indicates that climate change may not necessarily limit the survivability of small, stream-dwelling animals in headwater basins located in cold and humid regions. This new knowledge suggests that habitat conservation initiatives for amphibians with large latitudinal distributions in Eastern North America should be prioritized at the northern limits of their ranges to facilitate species migration and persistence in the face of climate change. This example demonstrates how hybrid models can serve as powerful tools for informing management and conservation decisions.

The 2 oC scenario-A sustainable world energy perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krewitt, Wolfram; Simon, Sonja; Graus, Wina; Teske, Sven; Zervos, Arthouros; Schaefer, Oliver

2007-01-01

A target-oriented scenario of future energy demand and supply is developed in a backcasting process. The main target is to reduce global CO 2 emissions to around 10 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 o C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A 10-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region-specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The 2 o C scenario shows that renewable energy could provide as much as half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO 2 emissions, while at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%

Determinants of emergency response willingness in the local public health workforce by jurisdictional and scenario patterns: a cross-sectional survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, Daniel J; Thompson, Carol B; Errett, Nicole A; Semon, Natalie L; Anderson, Marilyn K; Ferrell, Justin L; Freiheit, Jennifer M; Hudson, Robert; Koch, Michelle M; McKee, Mary; Mejia-Echeverry, Alvaro; Spitzer, James; Balicer, Ran D; Links, Jonathan M

2012-03-07

The all-hazards willingness to respond (WTR) of local public health personnel is critical to emergency preparedness. This study applied a threat-and efficacy-centered framework to characterize these workers' scenario and jurisdictional response willingness patterns toward a range of naturally-occurring and terrorism-related emergency scenarios. Eight geographically diverse local health department (LHD) clusters (four urban and four rural) across the U.S. were recruited and administered an online survey about response willingness and related attitudes/beliefs toward four different public health emergency scenarios between April 2009 and June 2010 (66% response rate). Responses were dichotomized and analyzed using generalized linear multilevel mixed model analyses that also account for within-cluster and within-LHD correlations. Comparisons of rural to urban LHD workers showed statistically significant odds ratios (ORs) for WTR context across scenarios ranging from 1.5 to 2.4. When employees over 40 years old were compared to their younger counterparts, the ORs of WTR ranged from 1.27 to 1.58, and when females were compared to males, the ORs of WTR ranged from 0.57 to 0.61. Across the eight clusters, the percentage of workers indicating they would be unwilling to respond regardless of severity ranged from 14-28% for a weather event; 9-27% for pandemic influenza; 30-56% for a radiological 'dirty' bomb event; and 22-48% for an inhalational anthrax bioterrorism event. Efficacy was consistently identified as an important independent predictor of WTR. Response willingness deficits in the local public health workforce pose a threat to all-hazards response capacity and health security. Local public health agencies and their stakeholders may incorporate key findings, including identified scenario-based willingness gaps and the importance of efficacy, as targets of preparedness curriculum development efforts and policies for enhancing response willingness. Reasons for an

Determinants of emergency response willingness in the local public health workforce by jurisdictional and scenario patterns: a cross-sectional survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barnett Daniel J

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The all-hazards willingness to respond (WTR of local public health personnel is critical to emergency preparedness. This study applied a threat-and efficacy-centered framework to characterize these workers' scenario and jurisdictional response willingness patterns toward a range of naturally-occurring and terrorism-related emergency scenarios. Methods Eight geographically diverse local health department (LHD clusters (four urban and four rural across the U.S. were recruited and administered an online survey about response willingness and related attitudes/beliefs toward four different public health emergency scenarios between April 2009 and June 2010 (66% response rate. Responses were dichotomized and analyzed using generalized linear multilevel mixed model analyses that also account for within-cluster and within-LHD correlations. Results Comparisons of rural to urban LHD workers showed statistically significant odds ratios (ORs for WTR context across scenarios ranging from 1.5 to 2.4. When employees over 40 years old were compared to their younger counterparts, the ORs of WTR ranged from 1.27 to 1.58, and when females were compared to males, the ORs of WTR ranged from 0.57 to 0.61. Across the eight clusters, the percentage of workers indicating they would be unwilling to respond regardless of severity ranged from 14-28% for a weather event; 9-27% for pandemic influenza; 30-56% for a radiological 'dirty' bomb event; and 22-48% for an inhalational anthrax bioterrorism event. Efficacy was consistently identified as an important independent predictor of WTR. Conclusions Response willingness deficits in the local public health workforce pose a threat to all-hazards response capacity and health security. Local public health agencies and their stakeholders may incorporate key findings, including identified scenario-based willingness gaps and the importance of efficacy, as targets of preparedness curriculum development efforts and

Search for compressed SUSY scenarios with the ATLAS detector

CERN Document Server

Maurer, Julien; The ATLAS collaboration

2017-01-01

Scenarios where multiple SUSY states are nearly degenerate in mass produce soft decay products, and they represent an experimental challenge for ATLAS. This contribution presented recent results of analyses explicitly targeting such ``compressed'' scenarios with a variety of experimental techniques. All results made use of proton-proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC.

Scenarios of a deregulated electricity industry. Analysis; Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung. Analyse

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Foerster, G.

2002-07-01

Four scenarios have been established which represent the spectrum of probable developments in the Internal Market until 2010. The content-related postulations are described in two parts. In the first part, various fundamental settings are defined which apply to all four scenarios alike, whereas in the second part a set of influencing variables (descriptors) are defined which develop along dissimilar, distinctive lines and thus can be used for modelling within the four different scenarios. Applying a special scenario analysing method, the cross-impact method, those combinations of descriptors can be derived which lead to conclusive scenarios and consistent postulations. (orig./CB) [German] Es wurden vier Szenarien erarbeitet, die das Spektrum der wahrscheinlichen Entwicklungen im EU-Binnenmarkt bis zum Jahr 2010 repraesentieren. Die inhaltlichen Aussagen werden in zwei Teilen beschrieben. Der erste Teil beinhaltet eine Reihe von Rahmengroessen, die fuer alle vier Szenarien gleich sind. Der zweite Teil besteht aus einem Satz von Einflussgroessen (Deskriptoren) mit verschiedenen Auspraegungen, in denen sich die vier Szenarien unterscheiden. Mit Hilfe einer speziellen Szenariotechnik, der Cross-Impact-Methode, bestimmt man diejenigen Kombinationen der Deskriptorauspraegungen, die zu in sich schluessigen Szenarien ohne widerspruechliche Assagen fuehren. (orig./CB)

Cross sections for the production of 11C in C targets by 3.65 AGeV projectiles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kozma, P.; Tolstov, K.D.; Yanovskij, V.V.

1989-01-01

The absolute cross sections for the production of 11 C in C targets by 3.65 AGeV protons, deuterons, 4 He- and 12 C-ions were measured. Annihialtion radiation from 11 C was counted using a large volume NaI(Tl) and BaF 2 detectors. The flux measurement technique based on registration of charged particles by means of a thin nuclear emulsion layer rotating in a beam as well as fission chamber was used. The results are compared with earlier measurements of the cross sections in carbon targets using high-energy projectiles and Glauber theoretical prediction, as well. 10 refs.; 3 figs.; 1 tab

Water flow experiment using the PIV technique and the thermal hydraulic analysis on the cross-flow type mercury target model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haga, Katsuhiro; Terada, Atsuhiko; Kaminaga, Masanori; Hino, Ryutaro

2001-01-01

In this study the effectiveness of the cross-flow type mercury target structure was evaluated experimentally and analytically. The average water flow velocity field in the target mock-up model, which was fabricated with plexiglass, was measured at room temperature using the PIV (Particle Image Velocimetry) technique. The water flow analyses were conducted and the analytical results were compared with the experimental results. The experimental results showed that the cross-flow could be realized in the former part of the proton beam path where the heat load by the spallation reaction is large, and the analytical result of the water flow velocity field showed good correspondence to the experimental result in the case of the Reynolds number of more than 4.83 x 10 5 at the model inlet. With these results, the effectiveness of the cross-flow type mercury target structure and the present analysis code system was demonstrated. Then the mercury flow field and the temperature distribution in the target container were analyzed assuming the proton beam energy and power of 3 GeV and 5 MW. The analytical result showed that the cross-flow field of mercury, which is similar to the water flow field, could also be attained. (author)

Red Cross Emblem and the medical profession--the Indian scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Menon, Anand; Kuruvilla, Ajee

2005-02-01

The Red Cross Emblem has come to symbolize the medical profession in our country. Many medical practitioners use the emblem to designate our profession. Others including hospitals (Government and private), chemists, pharmaceutical firms and sometimes public transport vehicle use the Red Cross Emblem.

Time resolved optical emission spectroscopy of cross-beam pulsed laser ablation on graphite targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sangines, R.; Sanchez Ake, C.; Sobral, H.; Villagran-Muniz, M.

2007-01-01

Cross-beam pulsed laser ablation with two delayed lasers is performed on two perpendicular graphite targets. The time delay between lasers is varied by up to 5 μs, and physical changes on the second plasma, due to the interaction with the first generated one, are determined by time resolved optical emission spectroscopy

Scenario for large-scale implementation of CCS in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wildenborg, T.; Coussy, P.; Doukelis, A.; Ekström, C.; Georgiou, G.; Gkountanis, S.; Kramers, L.; Kuip, M. van der; Lindeberg, E.; Nordbø, Ø.; Serbutoviez, S.; Simonsson, D.

2009-01-01

In the CASTOR project funded by the EU and industry the emission reduction target for CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) was set at 30% of the CO2 emissions from power plants in Europe, which is to be achieved during the first half of this century. The developed scenario shows that this target can be

From carbonization to decarbonization?-Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steckel, Jan Christoph; Jakob, Michael; Marschinski, Robert; Luderer, Gunnar

2011-01-01

Along the lines of the Kaya identity, we perform a decomposition analysis of historical and projected emissions data for China. We compare the results with reduction requirements implied by globally cost-effective mitigation scenarios and official Chinese policy targets. For the years 1971-2000 we find that the impact of high economic growth on emissions was partially compensated by a steady fall in energy intensity. However, the end - and even reversal - of this downward trend, along with a rising carbon intensity of energy, resulted in rapid emission growth during 2000-2007. By applying an innovative enhanced Kaya-decomposition method, we also show how the persistent increase in the use of coal has caused carbon intensity to rise throughout the entire time-horizon of the analysis. These insights are then compared to model scenarios for future energy system developments generated by the ReMIND-R model. The analysis reaffirms China's indispensable role in global efforts to implement any of three exemplary stabilization targets (400, 450, or 500 ppm CO 2 -only), and underscore the increasing importance of carbon intensity for the more ambitious targets. Finally, we compare China's official targets for energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP to projections for global cost-effective stabilization scenarios, finding them to be roughly compatible in the short-to-mid-term. - Highlights: → An extended Kaya-decomposition is applied to historical data and ReMIND-R scenario results for China. → Reversing a historic trend, energy intensity has increased in recent years. → The contribution of coal in increasing carbon intensity and emissions has been constant in the past. → Decarbonization becomes increasingly important with increasingly ambitious climate targets. → Chinese targets for carbon intensity of GDP are in line with a 450 ppm CO 2 -only stabilization scenario.

Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krivtchik, Guillaume

2014-01-01

Nuclear scenario studies model nuclear fleet over a given period. They enable the comparison of different options for the reactor fleet evolution, and the management of the future fuel cycle materials, from mining to disposal, based on criteria such as installed capacity per reactor technology, mass inventories and flows, in the fuel cycle and in the waste. Uncertainties associated with nuclear data and scenario parameters (fuel, reactors and facilities characteristics) propagate along the isotopic chains in depletion calculations, and through out the scenario history, which reduces the precision of the results. The aim of this work is to develop, implement and use a stochastic uncertainty propagation methodology adapted to scenario studies. The method chosen is based on development of depletion computation surrogate models, which reduce the scenario studies computation time, and whose parameters include perturbations of the depletion model; and fabrication of equivalence model which take into account cross-sections perturbations for computation of fresh fuel enrichment. Then the uncertainty propagation methodology is applied to different scenarios of interest, considering different options of evolution for the French PWR fleet with SFR deployment. (author) [fr

Measurement of neutron activation cross sections in the energy range between 2 and 7 MeV by using a Ti-deuteron target and a deuteron gas target

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senga, T.; Sakane, H.; Shibata, M.; Yamamoto, H.; Kawade, K. [Nagoya Univ. (Japan); Kasugai, Yoshimi; Ikeda, Yujiro; Takeuchi, Hiroshi [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

2000-03-01

Using a Ti-deuteron target in the neutron energy range between 2 and 4.5 MeV and a deuteron gas target between 4.5 and 7 MeV, mono-energetic neutrons could be generated enough for activation cross section measurements. The KN-3750 Van de Grraff accelerator at Nagoya University and the Fusion Neutronics Source (FNS) at Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) were used. Preliminary results of activation cross sections were obtained for reactions of {sup 27}Al(n,p){sup 27}Mg, {sup 47}Ti(n,p){sup 47}Sc, {sup 58}Ni(n,p){sup 58}Co. The evaluation data of JENDL-3.2 showed reasonable agreement with our results. (author)

Optimal Cross-Layer Design for Energy Efficient D2D Sharing Systems

KAUST Repository

Alabbasi, Abdulrahman

2016-11-23

In this paper, we propose a cross-layer design, which optimizes the energy efficiency of a potential future 5G spectrum-sharing environment, in two sharing scenarios. In the first scenario, underlying sharing is considered. We propose and minimize a modified energy per good bit (MEPG) metric, with respect to the spectrum sharing user’s transmission power and media access frame length. The cellular users, legacy users, are protected by an outage probability constraint. To optimize the non-convex targeted problem, we utilize the generalized convexity theory and verify the problem’s strictly pseudoconvex structure. We also derive analytical expressions of the optimal resources. In the second scenario, we minimize a generalized MEPG function while considering a probabilistic activity of cellular users and its impact on the MEPG performance of the spectrum sharing users. Finally, we derive the associated optimal resource allocation of this problem. Selected numerical results show the improvement of the proposed system compared with other systems.

Creating pedestrian crash scenarios in a driving simulator environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Chrysler, Susan T; Ahmad, Omar; Schwarz, Chris W

2015-01-01

In 2012 in the United States, pedestrian injuries accounted for 3.3% of all traffic injuries but, disproportionately, pedestrian fatalities accounted for roughly 14% of traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2014 ). In many other countries, pedestrians make up more than 50% of those injured and killed in crashes. This research project examined driver response to crash-imminent situations involving pedestrians in a high-fidelity, full-motion driving simulator. This article presents a scenario development method and discusses experimental design and control issues in conducting pedestrian crash research in a simulation environment. Driving simulators offer a safe environment in which to test driver response and offer the advantage of having virtual pedestrian models that move realistically, unlike test track studies, which by nature must use pedestrian dummies on some moving track. An analysis of pedestrian crash trajectories, speeds, roadside features, and pedestrian behavior was used to create 18 unique crash scenarios representative of the most frequent and most costly crash types. For the study reported here, we only considered scenarios where the car is traveling straight because these represent the majority of fatalities. We manipulated driver expectation of a pedestrian both by presenting intersection and mid-block crossing as well as by using features in the scene to direct the driver's visual attention toward or away from the crossing pedestrian. Three visual environments for the scenarios were used to provide a variety of roadside environments and speed: a 20-30 mph residential area, a 55 mph rural undivided highway, and a 40 mph urban area. Many variables of crash situations were considered in selecting and developing the scenarios, including vehicle and pedestrian movements; roadway and roadside features; environmental conditions; and characteristics of the pedestrian, driver, and vehicle. The driving simulator scenarios were subjected to iterative testing to

Portability scenarios for intelligent robotic control agent software

Science.gov (United States)

Straub, Jeremy

2014-06-01

Portability scenarios are critical in ensuring that a piece of AI control software will run effectively across the collection of craft that it is required to control. This paper presents scenarios for control software that is designed to control multiple craft with heterogeneous movement and functional characteristics. For each prospective target-craft type, its capabilities, mission function, location, communications capabilities and power profile are presented and performance characteristics are reviewed. This work will inform future work related to decision making related to software capabilities, hardware control capabilities and processing requirements.

Incident energy and target dependence of interaction cross sections and density distribution of neutron drip-line nuclei

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shimoura, S.

1992-01-01

The relation between nuclear density distribution and interaction cross section is discussed in terms of Glauber model. Based on the model, density distribution of neutron drip-line nucleus 11 Be and 11 Li is determined experimentally from incident energy dependence of interaction cross sections of 11 Be and 11 Li on light targets. The obtained distributions have long tails corresponding to neutron halos of loosely bound neutrons. (Author)

Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Bärring, Lars; Strandberg, Gustav

2018-02-01

Since the ‘Paris agreement’ in 2015 there has been much focus on what a +1.5 °C or +2 °C warmer world would look like. Since the focus lies on policy relevant global warming targets, or specific warming levels (SWLs), rather than a specific point in time, projections are pooled together to form SWL ensembles based on the target temperature rather than emission scenario. This study uses an ensemble of CMIP5 global model projections to analyse how well SWL ensembles represent the stabilized climate of global warming targets. The results show that the SWL ensembles exhibit significant trends that reflect the transient nature of the RCP scenarios. These trends have clear effect on the timing and clustering of monthly cold and hot extremes, even though the effect on the temperature of the extreme months is less visible. In many regions there is a link between choice of RCP scenario used in the SWL ensemble and climate change signal in the highest monthly temperatures. In other regions there is no such clear-cut link. From this we conclude that comprehensive analyses of what prospects the different global warming targets bring about will require stabilization scenarios. Awaiting such targeted scenarios we suggest that prudent use of SWL scenarios, taking their characteristics and limitations into account, may serve as reasonable proxies in many situations.

Subshell differential cross sections for electron transfer in collisions of U{sup 90+} ions with gaseous targets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ma, X. [Institute of Modern Physics, Lanzhou, GS (China); Stoehlker, T.; Bosch, F.; Brinzanescu, O.; Kozhuharov, C.; Mokler, P. [Gesellschaft fuer Schwerionenforschung mbH, Darmstadt (Germany); Fritzsche, S. [Kassel Univ. (Gesamthochschule) (Germany); Ludziejewski, T. [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Swierk (Poland); Warczak, A. [Uniwersytet Jagiellonski, Cracow (Poland). Inst. Fizyki

2000-10-01

Balmer spectra produced in collisions between He-like uranium projectiles and gaseous targets (N{sub 2}, Ar, Kr, and Xe) were measured at the jet-target area of the ESR storage ring. The X-ray radiation were recorded in coincidence with the down charged projectiles having captured one electron from the target atom. By means of spectra simulation, all the significant Balmer transition lines were identified. Further on, the j-differential cross sections for electron capture into projectile subshells were deduced from the well resolved spectra. For the heavier targets, where NRC contributes considerably, systematic deviations between experiment and the continuum distorted wave approximation are observed. (orig.)

Scenario-targeted toxicity assessment through multiple endpoint bioassays in a soil posing unacceptable environmental risk according to regulatory screening values.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez-Ruiz, A; Etxebarria, J; Boatti, L; Marigómez, I

2015-09-01

Lanestosa is a chronically polluted site (derelict mine) where the soil (Lanestosa (LA) soil) exceeds screening values (SVs) of regulatory policies in force (Basque Country; Europe) for Zn, Pb and Cd. A scenario-targeted toxicity assessment was carried out on the basis of a multi-endpoint bioassay approach. Acute and chronic toxicity bioassays were conducted with selected test species (Vibrio fischeri, Dictyostelium discoideum, Lactuca sativa, Raphanus sativus and Eisenia fetida) in combination with chemical analysis of soils and elutriates and with bioaccumulation studies in earthworms. Besides, the toxicity profile was compared with that of the mine runoff (RO) soil and of a fresh artificially polluted soil (LAAPS) resembling LA soil pollutant profile. Extractability studies in LA soil revealed that Pb, Zn and Cd were highly available for exchange and/or release into the environment. Indeed, Pb and Zn were accumulated in earthworms and LA soil resulted to be toxic. Soil respiration, V. fischeri, vegetative and developmental cycles of D. discoideum and survival and juvenile production of E. fetida were severely affected. These results confirmed that LA soil had unacceptable environmental risk and demanded intervention. In contrast, although Pb and Zn concentrations in RO soil revealed also unacceptable risk, both metal extractability and toxicity were much lower than in LA soil. Thus, within the polluted site, the need for intervention varied between areas that posed dissimilar risk. Besides, since LAAPS, with a high exchangeable metal fraction, was the most toxic, ageing under in situ natural conditions seemingly contributed to attenuate LA soil risk. As a whole, combining multi-endpoint bioassays with scenario-targeted analysis (including leaching and ageing) provides reliable risk assessment in soils posing unacceptable environmental risk according to SVs, which is useful to optimise the required intervention measures.

Hydrogen isotope double differential production cross sections induced by 62.7 MeV neutrons on a lead target

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kerveno, M.; Haddad, F.; Eudes, Ph.; Kirchner, T.; Lebrun, C.; Slypen, I.; Meulders, J.P.; Le Brun, C.; Lecolley, F.R.; Lecolley, J.F.; Louvel, M.; Lefebvres, F.; Hilaire, S.; Koning, A.J.

2002-01-01

Double differential hydrogen isotope production cross sections have been extracted in 62.7 MeV neutron induced reactions on a lead target. The angular distribution was measured at eight angles from 20 deg. to 160 deg. allowing the extraction of angle-differential, energy differential, and total production cross sections. A first set of comparisons with several theoretical calculations is also presented

Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henrique Dias Blois

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

Experimental cross section evaluation for innovative 99Mo production via the (α,n) reaction on 96Zr target

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pupillo, Gaia; Gambaccini, M.; Esposito, J.; Haddad, F.; Michel, N.

2014-01-01

The recent crisis of 99 Mo production by nuclear reactors caused an unexpected worldwide 99m Tc shortening, forcing the international scientific community to find alternative production routes for these vital nuclides. One of the possibilities is to replace the current reactor-based method with the accelerator-based one. The aim of this work is the experimental evaluation of the 96 Zr(α,n) 99 Mo reaction, using the well known stacked foil technique with natural Zr targets, in the energy range 33-8 MeV. The results were compared with the published experimental values, finding good agreement in the trend of the cross section but at higher peak value. The results refer to 100% enriched 96 Zr target. The cross section values measured in the different irradiations show excellent agreement and indicate that the ideal energy range for 99 Mo production is 13-25 MeV. In comparison with the literature, there is good agreement in the trend of the cross section but at higher peak value. The 96 Zr(α,n) 99 Mo reaction is an interesting alternative production route of 99 Mo aimed at the realization of 99 Mo/ 99 mTc generators. Using enriched 96 Zr as target, 99 Mo is the only radioactive Mo-isotope produced, while using natural Zr as target, the resulting 99 Mo still has an high radioisotopic purity (only the radioactive 93 Mo is co-produced), but a lower specific activity. In both cases no Tc-nuclides are directly produced in target and the high purity 99m Tc results only from the decay of 99 Mo

India's INDC for transport and 2 C stabilization target

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dhar, Subash; Shukla, Priyadarshi Ramprasad; Pathak, Minal

2017-01-01

Transport sector accounted for 13 % of India's energy-related CO2 emissions. India's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) specify an economy wide decarbonization target of 33 to 35 % between 2005 and 2030 and includes announcements for urban transport, intercity transportation...... to model future scenarios for India till year 2050. Three scenarios are explored in this paper: i) a business-As-usual scenario ii) an INDC scenario iii) implementation of INDC in a strong climate regime aiming for the 2 oC target. The assessment shows that CO2 reductions from transport would happen...

Accelerated Evaluation of Automated Vehicles Safety in Lane-Change Scenarios Based on Importance Sampling Techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Ding; Lam, Henry; Peng, Huei; Bao, Shan; LeBlanc, David J; Nobukawa, Kazutoshi; Pan, Christopher S

2017-03-01

Automated vehicles (AVs) must be thoroughly evaluated before their release and deployment. A widely used evaluation approach is the Naturalistic-Field Operational Test (N-FOT), which tests prototype vehicles directly on the public roads. Due to the low exposure to safety-critical scenarios, N-FOTs are time consuming and expensive to conduct. In this paper, we propose an accelerated evaluation approach for AVs. The results can be used to generate motions of the other primary vehicles to accelerate the verification of AVs in simulations and controlled experiments. Frontal collision due to unsafe cut-ins is the target crash type of this paper. Human-controlled vehicles making unsafe lane changes are modeled as the primary disturbance to AVs based on data collected by the University of Michigan Safety Pilot Model Deployment Program. The cut-in scenarios are generated based on skewed statistics of collected human driver behaviors, which generate risky testing scenarios while preserving the statistical information so that the safety benefits of AVs in nonaccelerated cases can be accurately estimated. The cross-entropy method is used to recursively search for the optimal skewing parameters. The frequencies of the occurrences of conflicts, crashes, and injuries are estimated for a modeled AV, and the achieved accelerated rate is around 2000 to 20 000. In other words, in the accelerated simulations, driving for 1000 miles will expose the AV with challenging scenarios that will take about 2 to 20 million miles of real-world driving to encounter. This technique thus has the potential to greatly reduce the development and validation time for AVs.

Motion state analysis of space target based on optical cross section

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Qichen; Li, Zhi; Xu, Can; Liu, Chenghao

2017-10-01

In order to solve the problem that the movement state analysis method of the space target based on OCS is not related to the real motion state. This paper proposes a method based on OCS for analyzing the state of space target motion. This paper first establish a three-dimensional model of real STSS satellite, then change the satellite's surface into element, and assign material to each panel according to the actual conditions of the satellite. This paper set up a motion scene according to the orbit parameters of STSS satellite in STK, and the motion states are set to three axis steady state and slowly rotating unstable state respectively. In these two states, the occlusion condition of the surface element is firstly determined, and the effective face element is selected. Then, the coordinates of the observation station and the solar coordinates in the satellite body coordinate system are input into the OCS calculation program, and the OCS variation curves of the three axis steady state and the slow rotating unstable state STSS satellite are obtained. Combining the satellite surface structure and the load situation, the OCS change curve of the three axis stabilized satellite is analyzed, and the conclude that the OCS curve fluctuates up and down when the sunlight is irradiated to the load area; By using Spectral analysis method, autocorrelation analysis and the cross residual method, the rotation speed of OCS satellite in slow rotating unstable state is analyzed, and the rotation speed of satellite is successfully reversed. By comparing the three methods, it is found that the cross residual method is more accurate.

Ontario demand response scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowlands, I.H.

2005-09-01

Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

Examining the fragmentation of 158 A GeV lead ions on copper target: Charge-changing cross sections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rana, Mukhtar Ahmed; Manzoor, Shahid

2008-01-01

A stack of plastic CR-39 Track Detectors were exposed to 158 A GeV 207 Pb ions at the CERN-SPS beam facility. The exposure of stack was performed at normal incidence with a fluence of about 1500ions/cm 2 . The total number of lead ions in each spill was about 7.8x10 4 with eight spills on each stack. For the stack with the Cu target, the lengths of etched cones on one face of the CR-39 detectors (before and after the target) were measured. Using these measurements and charge identification methodology in CR-39 track detectors, total and partial charge changing cross sections of 158 A GeV Pb 82+ ions on Cu and CR-39 targets are determined in the charge region 63≤Z≤82. The possibilities of presence and absence of odd-even effect in measured partial charge changing cross sections of 158 A GeV Pb ions for Cu and CR-39 targets are described. The charge resolution (σ Z ) achieved in the present experiment is ∼0.18e-0.21e. The analysis of discrepancies between our experimental results and other published results for the identical reaction is also presented

Examining the fragmentation of 158 A GeV lead ions on copper target: Charge-changing cross sections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rana, Mukhtar Ahmed [Physics Division, PINSTECH, P.O. Nilore, Islamabad (Pakistan)], E-mail: marana@alumni.nus.edu.sg; Manzoor, Shahid [Physics Division, PINSTECH, P.O. Nilore, Islamabad (Pakistan)

2008-09-15

A stack of plastic CR-39 Track Detectors were exposed to 158 A GeV {sup 207}Pb ions at the CERN-SPS beam facility. The exposure of stack was performed at normal incidence with a fluence of about 1500ions/cm{sup 2}. The total number of lead ions in each spill was about 7.8x10{sup 4} with eight spills on each stack. For the stack with the Cu target, the lengths of etched cones on one face of the CR-39 detectors (before and after the target) were measured. Using these measurements and charge identification methodology in CR-39 track detectors, total and partial charge changing cross sections of 158 A GeV Pb{sup 82+} ions on Cu and CR-39 targets are determined in the charge region 63{<=}Z{<=}82. The possibilities of presence and absence of odd-even effect in measured partial charge changing cross sections of 158 A GeV Pb ions for Cu and CR-39 targets are described. The charge resolution ({sigma}{sub Z}) achieved in the present experiment is {approx}0.18e-0.21e. The analysis of discrepancies between our experimental results and other published results for the identical reaction is also presented.

Long-term cost targets for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.H.; McDonald, A.

2004-01-01

In 2000 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) began the International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) to help guide nuclear R and D strategies targeted on anticipated mid-century energy system needs. One part of INPRO seeks to develop cost targets for new designs to be competitive in mid-century markets. The starting point was the 40 scenarios of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This paper summarizes four of the SRES scenarios, one from each of the four SRES scenario families. It discusses their implications for nuclear energy, including cost targets, and develops for each an 'aggressive nuclear' variant. The aggressive nuclear variants estimate the potential market for nuclear energy if, by improving faster than assumed by the SRES authors, nuclear energy can make inroads into vulnerable market shares projected for its competitors. In addition to projected demands for nuclear generated electricity, hydrogen and heat, the aggressive variants include prospective demand for nuclear desalination and use in upgrading fossil fuels. The paper then presents learning rates and implied cost targets consistent with the aggressive nuclear variants of the SRES scenarios. One provocative initial result is that many of the scenarios with substantial nuclear expansion do not seem to require big reductions in nuclear investment costs. One interpretation discussed at the end of the paper highlights the difference between cost reductions consistent with long-term energy system optimization based on perfect foresight, and cost reductions necessary to attract private investment in today's 'deregulating' and uncertain energy markets. (orig.)

Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

2012-01-01

Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

Cross check of the new economic and mass balance feature of the fuel cycle scenario code TR-EVOL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merino-Rodriguez, I.; Garcia-Martinez, M.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Lopez, D.

2016-01-01

Versatile computational tools with up to date capabilities are needed to assess current nuclear fuel cycles or the transition from the current status of the fuel cycle to the more advanced and sustainable ones. The TR-EVOL module, that is devoted to fuel cycle mass balance, simulates diverse nuclear power plants (PWR, SFR, ADS, etc.), having possibly different types of fuels (UO_2, MOX, etc.), and the associated fuel cycle facilities (enrichment, fuel fabrication, processing, interim storage, waste storage, geological disposal). This work is intended to cross check the new capabilities of the fuel cycle scenario code TR-EVOL.This process has been divided in 2 stages. The first stage is dedicated to check the improvements in the nuclear fuel mass balance estimation using the available data for the Spanish nuclear fuel cycle. The second stage has been focused in verifying the validity of the TR-EVOL economic module, comparing results to data published by the ARCAS EU project. A specific analysis was required to evaluate the back-end cost. Data published by the waste management responsible institutions was used for the validation of the methodology. Results were highly satisfactory for both stages. In particular, the economic assessment provides a difference smaller than 3% regarding results published by the ARCAS project (NRG estimations). Furthermore, concerning the back-end cost, results are highly acceptable (7% difference for a final disposal in a once-through scenario and around 11% for a final disposal in a reprocessing strategy) given the significant uncertainties involved in design concepts and related unit costs. (authors)

Rating knowledge sharing in cross-domain collaborative filtering.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Bin; Zhu, Xingquan; Li, Ruijiang; Zhang, Chengqi

2015-05-01

Cross-domain collaborative filtering (CF) aims to share common rating knowledge across multiple related CF domains to boost the CF performance. In this paper, we view CF domains as a 2-D site-time coordinate system, on which multiple related domains, such as similar recommender sites or successive time-slices, can share group-level rating patterns. We propose a unified framework for cross-domain CF over the site-time coordinate system by sharing group-level rating patterns and imposing user/item dependence across domains. A generative model, say ratings over site-time (ROST), which can generate and predict ratings for multiple related CF domains, is developed as the basic model for the framework. We further introduce cross-domain user/item dependence into ROST and extend it to two real-world cross-domain CF scenarios: 1) ROST (sites) for alleviating rating sparsity in the target domain, where multiple similar sites are viewed as related CF domains and some items in the target domain depend on their correspondences in the related ones; and 2) ROST (time) for modeling user-interest drift over time, where a series of time-slices are viewed as related CF domains and a user at current time-slice depends on herself in the previous time-slice. All these ROST models are instances of the proposed unified framework. The experimental results show that ROST (sites) can effectively alleviate the sparsity problem to improve rating prediction performance and ROST (time) can clearly track and visualize user-interest drift over time.

The Value of CCS under Current Policy Scenarios: NDCs and Beyond

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davidson, Casie L.; Dahowski, Robert T.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Clarke, Leon E.; Iyer, Gokul C.; Muratori, Matteo

2017-07-01

This paper describes preliminary results of analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to evaluate the potential role of CCS in addressing emissions reduction targets. Scenarios are modelled using the Paris-Increased Ambition (PIA) case developed by Fawcett et al. (2015), and a more aggressive Paris Two-Degree Ambition (P2A) case. Both cases are based upon nationally determined contributions (NDCs) agreed to at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP-21) in December 2015, coupled with additional mitigation effort beyond the 2030 Paris timeframe, through the end of the century. Analysis of CCS deployment and abatement costs under both policy scenarios suggests that, as modelled, having CCS in the technological portfolio could reduce the global cost of addressing emissions reduction targets specified under the policy scenario by trillions of dollars, primarily by enabling a smoother and lower-cost transition to next-generation technologies. Through the end of the century, total global abatement costs associated with the PIA case – with five percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 2.2 degrees by 2100 – are reduced by $15 trillion USD in the scenario where CCS is available to deploy by 2025 and remains available through 2100, reflecting a 47 percent savings in the cost of climate change abatement. Under the more ambitious P2A case, with 8 percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 1.9 degrees by 2100, the availability of CCS reduces global abatement costs by $22 trillion USD through the end of the century, again nearly halving the costs of addressing the policy, relative to achieving the same target using an energy portfolio that does not include CCS. PIA and P2A scenarios with CCS result in 1,250 and 1,580 GtCO2 of global geologic storage by the end of the century, respectively.

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

2006-07-01

The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

2006-01-01

The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

sub-national disaggregation of income distributions and climate change impacts) in order to boost the equity sensitivity of scenarios (Baer 2009). Recognize topics where social science inputs are becoming important for improving modelling and model relevance, such as providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, or developing measures of well-being which are independent of income levels, and include in global environmental scenario teams more representatives of social science professionals (Pitcher 2009; Garb et al 2008). Invest greater resources in assessing scenario results, and in understanding and overcoming the barriers to carrying out such assessment (Hulme and Dessai 2008; O'Neill and Nakicenovic, 2008). Disaggregate the variety of global change decision makers targeted as audiences for scenarios (Parson 2008; Garb et al 2008). Develop an additional 'reflective interventionist' scenarios approach that involves different epistemologies for active learning in the public interest (Wilkinson and Eidinow 2008). Draw on the extensive toolkit of social science research methods to analyze the social work of scenarios (Garb et al 2008). Create new institutions and scenario activities that can adapt and extend global scenarios to specific, often local or regional decision contexts (Parson 2008). Create fora in which scenario practitioners, modellers, decision-makers, and social scientists of various kinds can discuss the process of scenario construction and use (Garb et al 2008). We do not mean to imply a consensus among the participants in the Brown University workshop or of contributors to this collection of papers. At the same time, we believe that these and other insights and suggestions from these contributions do have a certain coherence, and collectively point to a deepening and reinvigoration of the environmental scenario-modelling enterprise—an enterprise now

Total projectile electron loss cross sections of U^{28+} ions in collisions with gaseous targets ranging from hydrogen to krypton

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Weber

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Beam lifetimes of stored U^{28+} ions with kinetic energies of 30 and 50  MeV/u, respectively, were measured in the experimental storage ring of the GSI accelerator facility. By using the internal gas target station of the experimental storage ring, it was possible to obtain total projectile electron loss cross sections for collisions with several gaseous targets ranging from hydrogen to krypton from the beam lifetime data. The resulting experimental cross sections are compared to predictions by two theoretical approaches, namely the CTMC method and a combination of the DEPOSIT code and the RICODE program.

A fresh look into the interacting dark matter scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Escudero, Miguel; Lopez-Honorez, Laura; Mena, Olga; Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio; Villanueva-Domingo, Pablo

2018-06-01

The elastic scattering between dark matter particles and radiation represents an attractive possibility to solve a number of discrepancies between observations and standard cold dark matter predictions, as the induced collisional damping would imply a suppression of small-scale structures. We consider this scenario and confront it with measurements of the ionization history of the Universe at several redshifts and with recent estimates of the counts of Milky Way satellite galaxies. We derive a conservative upper bound on the dark matter-photon elastic scattering cross section of σγ DM non-cold dark matter candidates, such as interacting and warm dark matter scenarios. Let us emphasize that bounds of similar magnitude to the ones obtained here could be also derived for models with dark matter-neutrino interactions and would be as constraining as the tightest limits on such scenarios.

Canine tumor cross-species genomics uncovers targets linked to osteosarcoma progression

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

Background Pulmonary metastasis continues to be the most common cause of death in osteosarcoma. Indeed, the 5-year survival for newly diagnosed osteosarcoma patients has not significantly changed in over 20 years. Further understanding of the mechanisms of metastasis and resistance for this aggressive pediatric cancer is necessary. Pet dogs naturally develop osteosarcoma providing a novel opportunity to model metastasis development and progression. Given the accelerated biology of canine osteosarcoma, we hypothesized that a direct comparison of canine and pediatric osteosarcoma expression profiles may help identify novel metastasis-associated tumor targets that have been missed through the study of the human cancer alone. Results Using parallel oligonucleotide array platforms, shared orthologues between species were identified and normalized. The osteosarcoma expression signatures could not distinguish the canine and human diseases by hierarchical clustering. Cross-species target mining identified two genes, interleukin-8 (IL-8) and solute carrier family 1 (glial high affinity glutamate transporter), member 3 (SLC1A3), which were uniformly expressed in dog but not in all pediatric osteosarcoma patient samples. Expression of these genes in an independent population of pediatric osteosarcoma patients was associated with poor outcome (p = 0.020 and p = 0.026, respectively). Validation of IL-8 and SLC1A3 protein expression in pediatric osteosarcoma tissues further supported the potential value of these novel targets. Ongoing evaluation will validate the biological significance of these targets and their associated pathways. Conclusions Collectively, these data support the strong similarities between human and canine osteosarcoma and underline the opportunities provided by a comparative oncology approach as a means to improve our understanding of cancer biology and therapies. PMID:20028558

Canine tumor cross-species genomics uncovers targets linked to osteosarcoma progression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Triche Timothy

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Pulmonary metastasis continues to be the most common cause of death in osteosarcoma. Indeed, the 5-year survival for newly diagnosed osteosarcoma patients has not significantly changed in over 20 years. Further understanding of the mechanisms of metastasis and resistance for this aggressive pediatric cancer is necessary. Pet dogs naturally develop osteosarcoma providing a novel opportunity to model metastasis development and progression. Given the accelerated biology of canine osteosarcoma, we hypothesized that a direct comparison of canine and pediatric osteosarcoma expression profiles may help identify novel metastasis-associated tumor targets that have been missed through the study of the human cancer alone. Results Using parallel oligonucleotide array platforms, shared orthologues between species were identified and normalized. The osteosarcoma expression signatures could not distinguish the canine and human diseases by hierarchical clustering. Cross-species target mining identified two genes, interleukin-8 (IL-8 and solute carrier family 1 (glial high affinity glutamate transporter, member 3 (SLC1A3, which were uniformly expressed in dog but not in all pediatric osteosarcoma patient samples. Expression of these genes in an independent population of pediatric osteosarcoma patients was associated with poor outcome (p = 0.020 and p = 0.026, respectively. Validation of IL-8 and SLC1A3 protein expression in pediatric osteosarcoma tissues further supported the potential value of these novel targets. Ongoing evaluation will validate the biological significance of these targets and their associated pathways. Conclusions Collectively, these data support the strong similarities between human and canine osteosarcoma and underline the opportunities provided by a comparative oncology approach as a means to improve our understanding of cancer biology and therapies.

Target mass corrections to electroweak structure functions and perturbative neutrino cross sections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kretzer, S.; Reno, M.H.

2004-01-01

We provide a complete and consistent framework to include subasymptotic perturbative as well as mass corrections to the leading twist (τ=2) evaluation of charged and neutral current weak structure functions and the perturbative neutrino cross sections. We reexamine previous calculations in a modern language and fill in the gaps that we find missing for a complete and ready-to-use 'NLO ξ-scaling' formulary. In particular, as a new result we formulate the mixing of the partonic and hadronic structure function tensor basis in the operator approach to deep inelastic scattering. As an underlying framework we follow the operator product expansion in the manner of Georgi and Politzer that allows the inclusion of target mass corrections at arbitrary order in QCD and we provide explicit analytical and numerical results at NLO. We compare this approach with a simpler collinear parton model approach to ξ scaling. Along with target mass corrections we include heavy quark mass effects as a calculable leading twist power suppressed correction. The complete corrections have been implemented into a Monte Carlo integration program to evaluate structure functions and/or integrated cross sections. As applications, we compare the operator approach with the collinear approximation numerically and we investigate the NLO and mass corrections to observables that are related to the extraction of the weak mixing angle from a Paschos-Wolfenstein-like relation in neutrino-iron scattering. We expect that the interpretation of neutrino scattering events in terms of oscillation physics and electroweak precision physics will benefit from our results

New Approaches for the Use of the Classical Tools of Scenario Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ricardo Balieiro Fischer

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The future is to be built – is multiple and uncertain. Within the social sciences, scenarios can be defined as a description of a future situation and a course of events that allow move from a primary position toward this future situation. Currently, there is a multiplicity of methods and tools available for building scenarios, including methods of an essentially rationalist approach, as Michel Godet’s method. The purpose of this work is to use the hypothetical-deductive method to reduce, starting from Michel Godet’s Scenario Method and its tools, the complexity of the scenario-building process while maintaining the robustness of the findings. For this purpose, it is proposed two different approaches: (1 to integrate, in one step, the structural analysis and the cross-impact matrix so the first one derives automatically while filling the last one; (2 to use the concept of Bayesian networks as a method to integrate the cross-impact matrix and the morphological analysis. Both approaches aim to reduce the amount of information needed to feed the tools and improve the feedback criteria, resulting in greater flexibility during the process and better holistic view of the system. Scientifically, these approaches open a new field of studies in scenario planning as it appropriates the concept of Bayesian networks, widely used in other areas of knowledge (artificial intelligence, geological studies, medical diagnostics, pattern classification, etc., and bring it to the field of social sciences.

Design specification for the European Spallation Source neutron generating target element

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aguilar, A.; Sordo, F.; Mora, T.; Mena, L.; Mancisidor, M.; Aguilar, J.; Bakedano, G.; Herranz, I.; Luna, P.; Magan, M.; Vivanco, R.; Jimenez-Villacorta, F.; Sjogreen, K.; Oden, U.; Perlado, J.M.

2017-01-01

The paper addresses some of the most relevant issues concerning the thermal hydraulics and radiation damage of the neutron generation target to be built at the European Spallation Source as recently approved after a critical design review. The target unit consists of a set of Tungsten blocks placed inside a wheel of 2.5 m diameter which rotates at some 0.5 Hz in order to distribute the heat generated from incoming protons which reach the target in the radial direction. The spallation material elements are composed of an array of Tungsten pieces which rest on a rotating steel support (the cassette) and are distributed in a cross-flow configuration. The thermal, mechanical and radiation effects resulting from the impact of a 2 GeV proton pulse are analysed in detail as well as an evaluation of the inventory of spallation products. The current design is found to conform to specifications and found to be robust enough to deal with several accident scenarios.

Design specification for the European Spallation Source neutron generating target element

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aguilar, A. [Consorcio ESS-BILBAO. Parque Tecnológico Bizkaia. Poligono Ugaldeguren III, Pol. A, 7B, 48170 Zamudio (Spain); Sordo, F., E-mail: fernando.sordo@essbilbao.org [Consorcio ESS-BILBAO. Parque Tecnológico Bizkaia. Poligono Ugaldeguren III, Pol. A, 7B, 48170 Zamudio (Spain); Instituto de Fusión Nuclear, José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid (Spain); Mora, T. [Consorcio ESS-BILBAO. Parque Tecnológico Bizkaia. Poligono Ugaldeguren III, Pol. A, 7B, 48170 Zamudio (Spain); Mena, L. [Consorcio ESS-BILBAO. Parque Tecnológico Bizkaia. Poligono Ugaldeguren III, Pol. A, 7B, 48170 Zamudio (Spain); Instituto de Fusión Nuclear, José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid (Spain); Mancisidor, M.; Aguilar, J.; Bakedano, G.; Herranz, I.; Luna, P. [Consorcio ESS-BILBAO. Parque Tecnológico Bizkaia. Poligono Ugaldeguren III, Pol. A, 7B, 48170 Zamudio (Spain); Magan, M.; Vivanco, R. [Consorcio ESS-BILBAO. Parque Tecnológico Bizkaia. Poligono Ugaldeguren III, Pol. A, 7B, 48170 Zamudio (Spain); Instituto de Fusión Nuclear, José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid (Spain); Jimenez-Villacorta, F. [Consorcio ESS-BILBAO. Parque Tecnológico Bizkaia. Poligono Ugaldeguren III, Pol. A, 7B, 48170 Zamudio (Spain); Sjogreen, K.; Oden, U. [European Spallation Source ERIC, P.O Box 176, SE-221 00 Lund (Sweden); Perlado, J.M. [Instituto de Fusión Nuclear, José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, 28006 Madrid (Spain); and others

2017-06-01

The paper addresses some of the most relevant issues concerning the thermal hydraulics and radiation damage of the neutron generation target to be built at the European Spallation Source as recently approved after a critical design review. The target unit consists of a set of Tungsten blocks placed inside a wheel of 2.5 m diameter which rotates at some 0.5 Hz in order to distribute the heat generated from incoming protons which reach the target in the radial direction. The spallation material elements are composed of an array of Tungsten pieces which rest on a rotating steel support (the cassette) and are distributed in a cross-flow configuration. The thermal, mechanical and radiation effects resulting from the impact of a 2 GeV proton pulse are analysed in detail as well as an evaluation of the inventory of spallation products. The current design is found to conform to specifications and found to be robust enough to deal with several accident scenarios.

Collision cross sections and equilibrium fractions of ions and atoms in metal vapor targets. Project progress report, June 1, 1979-May 31, 1980

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgan, T.J.

1980-01-01

The objective of this program is to measure atomic collision cross sections and equilibrium fractions of ions and atoms in metal vapor targets. The goal is to obtain experimental information on atomic collision processes relevant to the Magnetic Fusion Energy Program. In particular, in connection with the development of double charge exchange D - ion sources, we are measuring D - formation cross sections in alkaline-earth metal vapor targets. During the period covered in this report we have measured electron transfer cross sections for 3-40 keV D + ions and D 0 atoms in collision with calcium vapor

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

2016-07-24

There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

Municipal scale scenario: Analysis of an Italian seaside town with MarkAL-TIMES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comodi, G.; Cioccolanti, L.; Gargiulo, M.

2012-01-01

This work presents three 25-year energy scenarios developed with the TIMES model generator for Pesaro, a seaside municipality in central Italy. It evaluates the effectiveness of local-scale energy policies in three sectors: households, transport, and the public sector (PS). Since the local energy demand is affected by summer tourism, seasonal consumption by holiday homes was also studied. Three scenarios were hypothesized: Business as Usual (BAU), Exemplary Public Sector (EPS), and Exemplary Municipality (EM). The EPS scenario models the exemplary role that recent European directives attribute to the PS in setting energy efficiency and technology penetration targets for itself; the EM scenario extends these targets to the household sector. In particular, the study underscores the potential of micro-cogeneration technologies in achieving local environmental targets, even though their diffusion would involve an increase in local energy consumption due to internalization of the primary energy used to produce electricity, which would no longer be wholly imported from outside municipal boundaries. The study provides information to local decision-makers by estimating the cost of implementing a number of energy policies. Finally, the study discusses the adequacy of TIMES as a tool to analyse municipal-scale scenarios. - Highlights: ► The main sectors investigated are transportation, household, and public sector. ► To account of touristic season holyday homes are modelled separately. ► Energy efficiency and renewables can help to highly reduce local consumptions. ► Micro-chp increases local consumption internalizing electricity self-production. ► Provide an insight on the adequacy of the use of TIMES at municipal scale.

Assessing the Sustainability of EU Timber Consumption Trends: Comparing Consumption Scenarios with a Safe Operating Space Scenario for Global and EU Timber Supply

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meghan O’Brien

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The growing demand for wood to meet EU renewable energy targets has increasingly come under scrutiny for potentially increasing EU import dependence and inducing land use change abroad, with associated impacts on the climate and biodiversity. This article builds on research accounting for levels of primary timber consumption—e.g., toward forest footprints—and developing reference values for benchmarking sustainability—e.g., toward land use targets—in order to improve systemic monitoring of timber and forest use. Specifically, it looks at future trends to assess how current EU policy may impact forests at an EU and global scale. Future demand scenarios are based on projections derived and adapted from the literature to depict developments under different scenario assumptions. Results reveal that by 2030, EU consumption levels on a per capita basis are estimated to be increasingly disproportionate compared to the rest of the world. EU consumption scenarios based on meeting around a 40% share of the EU renewable energy targets with timber would overshoot both the EU and global reference value range for sustainable supply capacities in 2030. Overall, findings support literature pointing to an increased risk of problem shifting relating to both how much and where timber needed for meeting renewable energy targets is sourced. It is argued that a sustainable level of timber consumption should be characterized by balance between supply (what the forest can provide on a sustainable basis and demand (how much is used on a per capita basis, considering the concept of fair shares. To this end, future research should close data gaps, increase methodological robustness and address the socio-political legitimacy of the safe operating space concept towards targets in the future. A re-use of timber within the economy should be supported to increase supply options.

Kyoto Protocol Objectives in Croatia Energy Planning: Nuclear Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duic, N.; Bogdan, Z.; Juretic, F.; Zeljko, M.

2002-01-01

Croatia as an Annex I country of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a country that has pledged in the Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce its greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by 5% from the pre-transition level by the budget period 2008-12, will have to envisage a new energy strategy. Compared to the energy consumption collapse in some transitional countries like Russia and Ukraine, Croatia has passed through a relatively limited long term reduction of GHG emissions since 1990 because of higher efficiency of its pre-transition economy. It is expected that in case of business as usual scenario it will breach the Kyoto target in 2003 since the demand for energy will be high, especially as the income continues to rise, particularly in domestic use for heating, for transport and for electricity generation. Several scenarios of developing energy system are compared from the point of view of GHG emissions. The energy sector that will most probably be the most influenced by the UNFCCC objectives is electricity generation. Several scenarios are compared. The cost-effective scenario expects a mixture of coal and gas fired power plants to be built to satisfy the new demand and to replace the old power plants that are being decommissioned. More Kyoto friendly scenario envisages the construction of mostly nuclear power plants in the future, while decommissioning the old ones as planned, and is compared to the others from the GHG emissions point of view. The conclusion is that by measures tackling only electricity generation it will not be possible to keep GHG emission under the Kyoto target level, but that choosing the nuclear option might reduce significantly the cost of compliance. (author)

Energy policy objectives scenarios 2050. Reactions on the need for expansion of wind energy and photovoltaics; Energiepolitische Zielszenarien 2050. Rueckwirkungen auf den Ausbaubedarf von Windenergie und Photovoltaik

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deutsch, Matthias [Agora Energiewende, Berlin (Germany); Gerhardt, Norman; Sandau, Fabian [Fraunhofer Institut fuer Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (IWES), Kassel (Germany). Gruppe Energiewirtschaft und Systemanalyse

2015-12-15

The energy policy debate about renewable energies in Germany is currently focused almost exclusively on expansion targets of the power sector. Imost cases it remains an open question how much current is needed in the long term. A comparison of four cross-sectoral target scenarios shows that electricity consumption in 2050 in many cases could be much higher, depending on the assumptions and interpretation of climate targets than previously thought. [German] Die energiepolitische Diskussion um erneuerbare Energien in Deutschland konzentriert sich zurzeit fast ausschliesslich auf die Ausbauziele im Stromsektor. Dabei bleibt zumeist die Frage offen, wie viel Strom langfristig benoetigt wird. Ein Vergleich von vier sektoruebergreifenden Zielszenarien zeigt, dass der Stromverbrauch im Jahr 2050 je nach Annahmen und Interpretation der Klimaziele weitaus hoeher liegen koennte als bisher vielfach angenommen.

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Fish habitat regression under water scarcity scenarios in the Douro River basin

Science.gov (United States)

Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, Teresa

2015-04-01

Climate change will predictably alter hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goals of this study are to identify the stream reaches that will undergo more pronounced flow reduction under different climate change scenarios and to assess which fish species will be more affected by the consequent regression of suitable habitats. The interplay between changes in flow and temperature and the presence of transversal artificial obstacles (dams and weirs) is analysed. The results will contribute to river management and impact mitigation actions under climate change. This study was carried out in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of 29 Hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were modelled using a water modelling system (MOHID), based on meteorological data recorded monthly between 2008 and 2014. The same variables were modelled considering future climate change scenarios. The resulting variables were used in empirical habitat models of a set of key species (brown trout Salmo trutta fario, barbell Barbus bocagei, and nase Pseudochondrostoma duriense) using boosted regression trees. The stream segments between tributaries were used as spatial sampling units. Models were developed for the whole Douro basin using 401 fish sampling sites, although the modelled probabilities of species occurrence for each stream segment were predicted only for the Tâmega catchment. These probabilities of occurrence were used to classify stream segments into suitable and unsuitable habitat for each fish species, considering the future climate change scenario. The stream reaches that were predicted to undergo longer flow interruptions were identified and crossed with the resulting predictive maps of habitat suitability to compute the total area of habitat loss per species. Among the target species, the brown trout was predicted to be the most sensitive to habitat regression due to the

A Study on Foodborne Bacterial Cross-contamination During Fresh Chicken Preparation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shamma Ebrahim AlZaabi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Cross-contamination of foodborne pathogens from undercooked poultry meat to ready-to-eat food has been shown to be responsible for a number of foodborne disease outbreaks. Various studies have indicated that bacterial cross-contamination occurs during food preparation where bacteria present on food contact other surfaces and cause illness. Objectives: This study evaluated the ability of bacteria to survive and cross-contaminate other foods during the preparation of fresh chicken. Salmonella spp. cross-contamination from chicken to cucumber and utensils under various food handling scenarios was determined. Methods: Two scenarios were tested: in scenario 1, cutting board and knife used for cutting chicken without washing step were sampled. In scenario 2, cutting board and knife was washed with tap water separately after cutting chicken, and subsequently used for cutting cucumber. In scenario 1, chicken, cutting board, knife, and hands were sampled, and in scenario 2, cucumber was tested. Fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH method, using published Salmonella specific gene probes was used for Salmonella detection in samples taken from cross-contamination scenarios. A culture-based detection by Hektoen enteric agar was used for the confirmation of Salmonella species. Results: All the samples analyzed were found to be positive for Salmonella spp. with different contamination levels. These results were further confirmed by culture based method. In scenario 1, Salmonella spp. was detected by Sal-1 and Salm-63 oligonucleotide probes in all four samples (chicken, cutting board, knife and hands. A high contamination level was observed in chicken samples in comparison to samples collected from cutting board, knife and hands. In scenario 2, Salmonella spp. was detected by Sal-1 and Salm-63 oligonucleotide probes in the cucumber with very low contamination level. Salmonella Enterica was also detected by Sal-3 and Sapath-3 in both scenarios but

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A

2005-07-15

Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A.

2005-07-01

Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

Cross Sections for Neutron-induced Reactions on Actinide Targets Extracted from Surrogate Experiments: A Status Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Escher, J.E.; Burke, J.T.; Dietrich, F.S.; Lesher, S.R.; Scielzo, N.D.; Thompson, I.J.; Younes, W.

2009-01-01

The Surrogate nuclear reactions method, an indirect approach for determining cross sections for compound-nuclear reactions involving difficult-to-measure targets, is reviewed. Focusing on cross sections for neutron-induced reactions on actinides, we review the successes of past and present applications of the method and assess its uncertainties and limitations. The approximations used in the analyses of most experiments work reasonably well for (n,f) cross sections for neutron energies above 1-2 MeV, but lead to discrepancies for low-energy (n,f) reactions, as well as for (n,γ) applications. Correcting for some of the effects neglected in the approximate analyses leads to improved (n,f) results. We outline steps that will further improve the accuracy and reliability of the Surrogate method and extend its applicability to reactions that cannot be approached with the present implementation of the method.

Cross Sections for Neutron-induced Reactions on Actinide Targets Extracted from Surrogate Experiments: A Status Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Escher, J E; Burke, J T; Dietrich, F S; Lesher, S R; Scielzo, N D; Thompson, I J; Younes, W

2009-10-01

The Surrogate nuclear reactions method, an indirect approach for determining cross sections for compound-nuclear reactions involving difficult-to-measure targets, is reviewed. Focusing on cross sections for neutron-induced reactions on actinides, we review the successes of past and present applications of the method and assess its uncertainties and limitations. The approximations used in the analyses of most experiments work reasonably well for (n,f) cross sections for neutron energies above 1-2 MeV, but lead to discrepancies for low-energy (n,f) reactions, as well as for (n,{gamma}) applications. Correcting for some of the effects neglected in the approximate analyses leads to improved (n,f) results. We outline steps that will further improve the accuracy and reliability of the Surrogate method and extend its applicability to reactions that cannot be approached with the present implementation of the method.

The relation between societal factors and different forms of prejudice: A cross-national approach on target-specific and generalized prejudice.

Science.gov (United States)

Meeusen, Cecil; Kern, Anna

2016-01-01

The goal of this paper was to investigate the generalizability of prejudice across contexts by analyzing associations between different types of prejudice in a cross-national perspective and by investigating the relation between country-specific contextual factors and target-specific prejudices. Relying on the European Social Survey (2008), results indicated that prejudices were indeed positively associated, confirming the existence of a generalized prejudice component. Next to substantial cross-national differences in associational strength, also within country variance in target-specific associations was observed. This suggested that the motivations for prejudice largely vary according to the intergroup context. Two aspects of the intergroup context - economic conditions and cultural values - showed to be related to generalized and target-specific components of prejudice. Future research on prejudice and context should take an integrative approach that considers both the idea of generalized and specific prejudice simultaneously. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stochastic Channel Modeling for Railway Tunnel Scenarios at 25 GHz

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danping He

2018-02-01

Full Text Available More people prefer using rail traffic for travel or for commuting owing to its convenience and flexibility. The railway scenario has become an important communication scenario in the fifth generation era. The communication system should be designed to support high‐data‐rate demands with seamless connectivity at a high mobility. In this paper, the channel characteristics are studied and modeled for the railway tunnel scenario with straight and curved route shapes. On the basis of measurements using the “Mobile Hotspot Network” system, a three‐dimensional ray tracer (RT is calibrated and validated for the target scenarios. More channel characteristics are explored via RT simulations at 25.25 GHz with a 500‐MHz bandwidth. The key channel parameters are extracted, provided, and incorporated into a 3rd‐Generation‐Partnership‐Project‐like stochastic channel generator. The necessary channel information can be practically realized, which can support the link‐level and system‐level design of the communication system in similar scenarios.

Relic abundance of WIMPs in non-standard cosmological scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yimingniyazi, W.

2007-08-06

In this thesis we study the relic density n{sub {chi}} of non--relativistic long--lived or stable particles {chi} in various non--standard cosmological scenarios. First, we discuss the relic density in the non--standard cosmological scenario in which the temperature is too low for the particles {chi} to achieve full chemical equilibrium. We also investigated the case where {chi} particles are non--thermally produced from the decay of heavier particles in addition to the usual thermal production. In low temperature scenario, we calculate the relic abundance starting from arbitrary initial temperatures T{sub 0} of the radiation--dominated epoch and derive approximate solutions for the temperature dependence of the relic density which can accurately reproduces numerical results when full thermal equilibrium is not achieved. If full equilibrium is reached, our ansatz no longer reproduces the correct temperature dependence of the {chi} number density. However, we can contrive a semi-analytic formula which gives the correct final relic density, to an accuracy of about 3% or better, for all cross sections and initial temperatures. We also derive the lower bound on the initial temperature T{sub 0}, assuming that the relic particle accounts for the dark matter energy density in the universe. The observed cold dark matter abundance constrains the initial temperature T{sub 0} {>=}m{sub {chi}}/23, where m{sub {chi}} is the mass of {chi}. Second, we discuss the {chi} density in the scenario where the the Hubble parameter is modified. Even in this case, an approximate formula similar to the standard one is found to be capable of predicting the final relic abundance correctly. Choosing the {chi} annihilation cross section such that the observed cold dark matter abundance is reproduced in standard cosmology, we constrain possible modifications of the expansion rate at T {proportional_to}m{sub {chi}}/20, well before Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. (orig.)

Relic abundance of WIMPs in non-standard cosmological scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yimingniyazi, W.

2007-01-01

In this thesis we study the relic density n χ of non--relativistic long--lived or stable particles χ in various non--standard cosmological scenarios. First, we discuss the relic density in the non--standard cosmological scenario in which the temperature is too low for the particles χ to achieve full chemical equilibrium. We also investigated the case where χ particles are non--thermally produced from the decay of heavier particles in addition to the usual thermal production. In low temperature scenario, we calculate the relic abundance starting from arbitrary initial temperatures T 0 of the radiation--dominated epoch and derive approximate solutions for the temperature dependence of the relic density which can accurately reproduces numerical results when full thermal equilibrium is not achieved. If full equilibrium is reached, our ansatz no longer reproduces the correct temperature dependence of the χ number density. However, we can contrive a semi-analytic formula which gives the correct final relic density, to an accuracy of about 3% or better, for all cross sections and initial temperatures. We also derive the lower bound on the initial temperature T 0 , assuming that the relic particle accounts for the dark matter energy density in the universe. The observed cold dark matter abundance constrains the initial temperature T 0 ≥m χ /23, where m χ is the mass of χ. Second, we discuss the χ density in the scenario where the the Hubble parameter is modified. Even in this case, an approximate formula similar to the standard one is found to be capable of predicting the final relic abundance correctly. Choosing the χ annihilation cross section such that the observed cold dark matter abundance is reproduced in standard cosmology, we constrain possible modifications of the expansion rate at T ∝m χ /20, well before Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. (orig.)

Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations; Scenari energetici italiani a confronto

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Contaldi, Mario [Agenzia per la Protezione dell' Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici-APAT, Roma (Italy)

2005-09-15

This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x} resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed. [Italian] Questo articolo riporta alcuni dei piu rappresentativi ed aggiornati scenari di evoluzione dei consumi energetici primari italiani. Dopo un esame delle principali variabili macroeconomiche i risultati degli scenari sono esaminati a livello di settore, con una breve discussione delle principali variabili utilizzate. Infine sono state anche esaminate le emissioni di CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} e NO{sub x} risultanti dai diversi scenari e le possibili conseguenze sul piano normativo.

Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rypdal, Kristin; Rive, Nathan; Berntsen, Terje; Fagerli, Hilde; Klimont, Zbigniew; Mideksa, Torben K.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.

2009-01-01

In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO 2 , NO x , CH 4 , VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH 4 . While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO 2 , contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NO x and SO 2 should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies.

Interoperability challenges in river discharge modelling: A cross domain application scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Santoro, Mattia; Andres, Volker; Jirka, Simon; Koike, Toshio; Looser, Ulrich; Nativi, Stefano; Pappenberger, Florian; Schlummer, Manuela; Strauch, Adrian; Utech, Michael; Zsoter, Ervin

2018-06-01

River discharge is a critical water cycle variable, as it integrates all the processes (e.g. runoff and evapotranspiration) occurring within a river basin and provides a hydrological output variable that can be readily measured. Its prediction is of invaluable help for many water-related tasks including water resources assessment and management, flood protection, and disaster mitigation. Observations of river discharge are important to calibrate and validate hydrological or coupled land, atmosphere and ocean models. This requires using datasets from different scientific domains (Water, Weather, etc.). Typically, such datasets are provided using different technological solutions. This complicates the integration of new hydrological data sources into application systems. Therefore, a considerable effort is often spent on data access issues instead of the actual scientific question. This paper describes the work performed to address multidisciplinary interoperability challenges related to river discharge modeling and validation. This includes definition and standardization of domain specific interoperability standards for hydrological data sharing and their support in global frameworks such as the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). The research was developed in the context of the EU FP7-funded project GEOWOW (GEOSS Interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water), which implemented a "River Discharge" application scenario. This scenario demonstrates the combination of river discharge observations data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) database and model outputs produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicting river discharge based on weather forecast information in the context of the GEOSS.

Extended analysis of retrodirective cross-eye jamming

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Du Plessis, WP

2009-09-01

Full Text Available An extended and rigorous analysis of retrodirective cross-eye jamming in a radar system scenario is presented. This analysis removes the approximations that limit the validity of other analyses of cross-eye jamming. These results imply that under...

Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Braun, Kimberly

1997-01-01

.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

Multicell Cooperation for LTE-Advanced Heterogeneous Network Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soret, Beatriz; Wang, Hua; Rosa, Claudio

2013-01-01

In this article we present two promising practical use cases for simple multicell cooperation for LTE-Advanced heterogeneous network (HetNet) scenarios with macro and small cells. For co-channel deployment cases, we recommend the use of enhanced inter-cell interference coordination (e......ICIC) to mitigate cross-tier interference and ensure sufficient offload of users from macro to small cells. It is shown how the eICIC benefit is maximized by using a distributed inter-base station control framework for dynamic adjustment of essential parameters. Secondly, for scenarios where macro and small cells...... are deployed at different carriers an efficient use of the fragmented spectrum can be achieved by using collaborative inter-site carrier aggregation. In addition to distributed coordination/collaboration between base station nodes, the importance of explicit terminal assistance is highlighted. Comprehensive...

Cold dark matter in brane cosmology scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dahab, Eiman Abou El; Khalil, Shaaban

2006-01-01

We analyze the dark matter problem in the context of brane cosmology. We investigate the impact of the non-conventional brane cosmology on the relic abundance of non-relativistic stable particles in high and low reheating temperature scenarios. We show that in case of high reheating temperature, the brane cosmology may enhance the dark matter relic density by many order of magnitudes and a stringent lower bound on the five dimensional scale is obtained. We also consider low reheating temperature scenarios with chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium. We emphasize that in non-equilibrium case, the resulting relic density is very small. While with equilibrium, it is increased by a factor of O(10 2 ) with respect to the standard thermal production. Therefore, dark matter particles with large cross section, which is favored by detection expirements, can be consistent with the recent relic density observational limits

Wood energy x 2 - Scenario for the development of wood energy use in Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This study for the Swiss Agency for the Environment, Forests and Landscapes (SAEFL) and the Swiss wood-energy association (Holzenergie Schweiz) presents the results of a scenario-study that examined if, and under what conditions, doubling the use of wood energy in Switzerland could help reach carbon dioxide reduction targets. Two scenarios are presented that are based on high and low rates of growth for the number of automatic wood-chipping or pellets-fired installations. For both scenarios, figures are presented on the amount of wood used and the heating energy generated. The political and financial prerequisites for the scenarios are discussed and other boundary conditions are defined. The report draws conclusions from the study of the two scenarios and summarises the political action deemed necessary

Differential production cross sections for charged particles produced by 590 MeV proton bombardment of thin metal targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howe, S.D.; Cierjacks, S.; Hino, Y.; Raupp, F.; Rainbow, M.T.; Swinhoe, M.T.; Buth, L.

1981-01-01

Differential production cross sections have been measured for the reactions (p,p), (p,d), (p,t) and (p,π+-) using the 590 MeV proton beam at SIN. Here we report measurements made on thin targets of aluminium, niobium, lead, and uranium at laboratory angles of 90 0 and 157 0 . The data were taken over a proton energy range of about 50 MeV to 590 MeV. Differential cross sections are reported along with predictions by the intranuclear-cascade/evaporation model as computed by HETC. (orig.)

Transmission dynamics of two dengue serotypes with vaccination scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

González Morales, N L; Núñez-López, M; Ramos-Castañeda, J; Velasco-Hernández, J X

2017-05-01

In this work we present a mathematical model that incorporates two Dengue serotypes. The model has been constructed to study both the epidemiological trends of the disease and conditions that allow coexistence in competing strains under vaccination. We consider two viral strains and temporary cross-immunity with one vector mosquito population. Results suggest that vaccination scenarios will not only reduce disease incidence but will also modify the transmission dynamics. Indeed, vaccination and cross immunity period are seen to decrease the frequency and magnitude of outbreaks but in a differentiated manner with specific effects depending upon the interaction vaccine and strain type. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hypothetical air ingress scenarios in advanced modular high temperature gas cooled reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroeger, P.G.

1988-01-01

Considering an extremely hypothetical scenario of complete cross duct failure and unlimited air supply into the reactor vessel of a modular high temperature gas cooled ractor, it is found that the potential air inflow remains limited due to the high friction pressure drop through the active core. All incoming air will be oxidized to CO and some local external burning would be temporarily possible in such a scenario. The accident would have to continue with unlimited air supply for hundreds of hours before the core structural integrity would be jeopardized

Different Neural Networks are Involved in Cross-Modal Non-Spatial Inhibition of Return (IOR: The Effect of the Sensory Modality of Behavioral Targets

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Qi Chen

2011-10-01

Full Text Available We employed a novel cross-modal non-spatial inhibition of return (IOR paradigm with fMRI to investigate whether object concept is organized by supramodal or modality-specific systems. A precue-neutral cue-target sequence was presented and participants were asked to discriminate whether the target was a dog or a cat. The precue and the target could be either a picture or vocalization of a dog or a cat. The neutral cue (bird was always from the same modality as the precue. Behaviorally, for both visual and auditory targets, the main effect of cue validity was the only significant effect, p<0.01, with equivalent effects for within- and cross-modal IOR. Neurally, for visual targets, left inferior frontal gyrus and left medial temporal gyrus showed significantly higher neural activity in cued than uncued condition, irrespective of the precue-target relationship, indicating that the two areas are involved in inhibiting a supramodal representation of previously attended object concept. For auditory targets, left lateral occipital gyrus and right postcentral gyrus showed significantly higher neural activity in uncued than cued condition irrespective of the cue-target relationship, indicating that the two areas are involved in creating a new supramodal representation when a novel object concept appears.

CLASS: Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mouginot, B.; Thiolliere, N.

2015-01-01

The nuclear reactor simulation community has to perform complex electronuclear scenario simulations. To avoid constraints coming from the existing powerful scenario software such as COSI, VISION or FAMILY, the open source Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulation (CLASS) has been developed. The main asset of CLASS is its ability to include any type of reactor, whether the system is innovative or standard. A reactor is fully described by its evolution database which should contain a set of different validated fuel compositions in order to simulate transitional scenarios. CLASS aims to be a useful tool to study scenarios involving Generation-IV reactors as well as innovative fuel cycles, like the thorium cycle. In addition to all standard key objects required by an electronuclear scenario simulation (the isotopic vector, the reactor, the fuel storage and the fabrication units), CLASS also integrates two new specific modules: fresh fuel evolution and recycled fuel fabrication. The first module, dealing with fresh fuel evolution, is implemented in CLASS by solving Bateman equations built from a database induced cross-sections. The second module, which incorporates the fabrication of recycled fuel to CLASS, can be defined by user priorities and/or algorithms. By default, it uses a linear Pu equivalent-method, which allows predicting, from the isotopic composition, the maximum burn-up accessible for a set type of fuel. This paper presents the basis of the CLASS scenario, the fuel method applied to a MOX fuel and an evolution module benchmark based on the French electronuclear fleet from 1977 to 2012. Results of the CLASS calculation were compared with the inventory made and published by the ANDRA organisation in 2012. For UOX used fuels, the ANDRA reported 12006 tonnes of heavy metal in stock, including cooling, versus 18500 tonnes of heavy metal predicted by CLASS. The large difference is easily explained by the presence of 56 tonnes of plutonium already separated

Targeting and crossing of the human maternofetal barrier by Listeria monocytogenes: role of internalin interaction with trophoblast E-cadherin.

Science.gov (United States)

Lecuit, Marc; Nelson, D Michael; Smith, Steve D; Khun, Huot; Huerre, Michel; Vacher-Lavenu, Marie-Cécile; Gordon, Jeffrey I; Cossart, Pascale

2004-04-20

Listeria monocytogenes produces severe fetoplacental infections in humans. How it targets and crosses the maternofetal barrier is unknown. We used immunohistochemistry to examine the location of L. monocytogenes in placental and amniotic tissue samples obtained from women with fetoplacental listeriosis. The results raised the possibility that L. monocytogenes crosses the maternofetal barrier through the villous syncytiotrophoblast, with secondary infection occurring via the amniotic epithelium. Because epidemiological studies indicate that the bacterial surface protein, internalin (InlA), may play a role in human fetoplacental listeriosis, we investigated the cellular patterns of expression of its host receptor, E-cadherin, at the maternofetal interface. E-cadherin was found on the basal and apical plasma membranes of syncytiotrophoblasts and in villous cytotrophoblasts. Established trophoblastic cell lines, primary trophoblast cultures, and placental villous explants were each exposed to isogenic InlA+ or InlA- strains of L. monocytogenes, and to L. innocua expressing or not InlA. Quantitative assays of cellular invasion demonstrated that bacterial entry into syncytiotrophoblasts occurs via the apical membrane in an InlA-E-cadherin dependent manner. In human placental villous explants, bacterial invasion of the syncytiotrophoblast barrier and underlying villous tissue and subsequent replication produces histopathological lesions that mimic those seen in placentas of women with listeriosis. Thus, the InlA-E-cadherin interaction that plays a key role in the crossing of the intestinal barrier in humans is also exploited by L. monocytogenes to target and cross the placental barrier. Such a ligand-receptor interaction allowing a pathogen to specifically cross the placental villous trophoblast barrier has not been reported previously.

Exploring drivers of energy demand in Cyprus – Scenarios and policy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zachariadis, Theodoros; Taibi, Emanuele

2015-01-01

This paper describes a new set of energy demand forecasts for the Republic of Cyprus up to the year 2040, which have been developed in support of the renewable energy roadmap that was prepared for national authorities by the International Renewable Energy Agency. The analysis takes into account national end-use data from the residential and tertiary sector that had not been exploited up to now. Four final energy demand scenarios with diverging assumptions were defined in this study, offering a wide range of possible outcomes up to 2040; in addition, four alternative scenarios were applied for sensitivity analysis. Two of these scenarios can be regarded as those continuing the trends of the recent past in Cyprus (prior to the economic and financial downturn of years 2011–2014). However, a more rigorous implementation of energy efficiency measures in buildings and transport, as defined in the fourth scenario of this study, is also realistic; despite its potential costs, it might allow Cyprus both to decrease its carbon emissions in line with the long-term EU decarbonisation targets, and to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, thereby promoting energy efficiency as an important climate change adaptation measure. - Highlights: • Energy demand forecasts for the Republic of Cyprus up to the year 2040 are presented. • Study in the frame of renewable energy roadmap for Cyprus supported by IRENA. • Four scenarios considered, some allowing for breaks with past trends of energy use. • Rigorous implementation of energy efficiency measures is realistic. • Strong energy savings required in line with EU decarbonisation targets.

Building a Unique Scenario to Support Cross-Mission Science with SPICE: The Siding-Spring comet encounter with Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, M.; Witasse, O.; Sánchez-Cano, B.

2017-09-01

On October 2014, Mars experienced a close encounter with Comet Siding Spring. This contribution outlines a SPICE scenario built to assist studies combining MEX, MAVEN, Mars Odyssey, MSL, and Siding-Spring data focused on a Cosmographia 3D scenario.

Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene

2010-01-01

The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

vNet Zero Energy for Radio Base Stations- Balearic Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sabater, Pere; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Pol, Andreu Moia

2016-01-01

The Balearic Islands have one of the best telecommunications infrastructures in Spain, with more than 1500 Radio Base Stations (RBS) covering a total surface of 4.991,66 km². This archipelago has high energy consumption, with high CO2 emissions, due to an electrical energy production system mainly...... based on coal and fossil fuels which is not an environmentally sustainable scenario. The aim of this study is to identify the processes that would reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, designing a target scenario featuring "zero CO2 emissions" and "100% renewable energies" in RBS....... The energy costs, CO2 emissions and data traffic data used for the study are generated by a sample of RBS from the Balearic Islands. The results are shown in terms of energy performance for a normal and net zero emissions scenarios....

Design and Macroeconomic Analysis of an 'Acceptable' Low-Carbon Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bibas, Ruben; Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike

2016-01-01

Two observations motivate our research: the lack of acceptability of climate policies and the deficit of credibility, legitimacy and ownership of low-carbon scenarios. Both constitute a barrier to decision-making and slow the energy transition. To overcome these limitations, we have scripted a scenario using a co-development method involving 30 stakeholders from civil society and the private and public sectors. Stakeholders contributed significantly to the methodology by requesting data transparency, sensitivity tests and the clarification of economic and financial impacts. We incorporated the set of policies regarded as acceptable into the Imaclim-R model. The resulting scenario cuts CO_2 emissions by 68 % in 2050, an outcome close to the 75 % reduction target. The measures are beneficial to employment and economic growth, except in the short term. These findings provide solid foundations to build acceptable decarbonization pathways

Cross section of α-induced reactions on iridium isotopes obtained from thick target yield measurement for the astrophysical γ process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Szücs

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The stellar reaction rates of radiative α-capture reactions on heavy isotopes are of crucial importance for the γ process network calculations. These rates are usually derived from statistical model calculations, which need to be validated, but the experimental database is very scarce. This paper presents the results of α-induced reaction cross section measurements on iridium isotopes carried out at first close to the astrophysically relevant energy region. Thick target yields of 191Ir(α,γ195Au, 191Ir(α,n194Au, 193Ir(α,n196mAu, 193Ir(α,n196Au reactions have been measured with the activation technique between Eα=13.4 MeV and 17 MeV. For the first time the thick target yield was determined with X-ray counting. This led to a previously unprecedented sensitivity. From the measured thick target yields, reaction cross sections are derived and compared with statistical model calculations. The recently suggested energy-dependent modification of the α+nucleus optical potential gives a good description of the experimental data.

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

How and when China will exceed its renewable energy deployment targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santalco, Aldo

2012-01-01

This paper is focused on the renewable energy targets set by China in its 12th National Development Plan 2011–2015. In particular, the paper examines deployment targets and the means to achieve them, for hydro, wind and solar. These are its priority technologies, in which the country has a level of competitive advantage. For each of these energy sources, four projections have been produced. These projections show whether and when China will meet its deployment targets in terms of the cumulative amount of gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity by 2015. In doing this, historical data from 2005 to 2010 has been analyzed for all three energy sources. Both the average annual growth rate (AAGR), and the compound average growth rate (CAGR) have been computed, in terms of the world averages and China's national performance over this period. AAGR and CAGR have been used for producing four scenarios for each renewable energy, and a logarithmic scale has been applied to them in order to make them more reliable by smoothing out excessive fluctuations. The most likely scenarios for each technology are described. Finally, the gap between these scenarios and the respective national targets set for 2015 and 2020 are calculated. - Highlights: ► The competitive advantages of China for the Renewable Energy Deployment Targets. ► Hydro target met by 2012 with a GW level higher than 31% the target by 2015. ► Wind target met by 2012 with a GW level higher than 35% the target by 2015. ► Solar target met by 2014 with a GW level higher than 23% the target by 2015. ► Best scenarios and gap analysis for 2015 and 2020 targets.

VHF/UHF imagery and RCS measurements of ground targets in forested terrain

Science.gov (United States)

Gatesman, Andrew J.; Beaudoin, Christopher J.; Giles, Robert H.; Waldman, Jerry; Nixon, William E.

2002-08-01

The monostatic VV and HH-polarized radar signatures of several targets and trees have been measured at foliage penetration frequencies (VHF/UHF) by using 1/35th scale models and an indoor radar range operating at X-band. An array of high-fidelity scale model ground vehicles and test objects as well as scaled ground terrain and trees have been fabricated for the study. Radar measurement accuracy has been confirmed by comparing the signature of a test object with a method of moments radar cross section prediction code. In addition to acquiring signatures of targets located on a smooth, dielectric ground plane, data have also been acquired with targets located in simulated wooded terrain that included scaled tree trunks and tree branches. In order to assure the correct backscattering behavior, all dielectric properties of live tree wood and moist soil were scaled properly to match the complex dielectric constant of the full-scale materials. The impact of the surrounding tree clutter on the VHF/UHF radar signatures of ground vehicles was accessed. Data were processed into high-resolution, polar-formatted ISAR imagery and signature comparisons are made between targets in open-field and forested scenarios.

Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

Fairness and cost-effectiveness of CO2 emission reduction targets in the European Union member states. An analysis based on scenario studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kram, T.; Ybema, J.R.; Vos, D.

1997-06-01

The Member States of the European Union (EU) have agreed upon a common position in the international negotiations on the limitation of greenhouse gas emissions. The total commitment of the EU is the result of differentiated emission targets for the individual Member States. In this study the results of 4 recent scenario studies on CO2 emission reduction are used to assess the fairness and the cost-effectiveness of the differentiated targets. Here, fairness is measured by the average cost per capita in a country to reach the emission target. Cost-effectiveness is based on the marginal cost of emission reduction. It is noted that there are limitations in the comparability of the country results. Further, the coverage of the EU Member States is not complete in all 4 studies. Robust conclusions could thus not be drawn for all countries. Nonetheless, there are strong indications that the efforts to achieve the emission reduction targets are not evenly distributed. Based on the results the countries can be divided into four groups with different burdens to achieve reduction of CO2 emissions: (a) countries that will probably be faced with above average burdens: Sweden, Italy and the Netherlands; (b) countries that will presumably be faced with above average burdens but for which limited information is available: Austria and Denmark; (c) countries that will probably be faced with average burdens or for which the relative efforts are indistinct: Germany, Portugal, Belgium, Finland and Luxembourg; and (d) countries that will probably be faced with below average burdens: United Kingdom, France, Spain, Ireland and Greece. 1 fig., 12 tabs., 6 refs

Maximum Likelihood-Based Methods for Target Velocity Estimation with Distributed MIMO Radar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenxin Cao

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The estimation problem for target velocity is addressed in this in the scenario with a distributed multi-input multi-out (MIMO radar system. A maximum likelihood (ML-based estimation method is derived with the knowledge of target position. Then, in the scenario without the knowledge of target position, an iterative method is proposed to estimate the target velocity by updating the position information iteratively. Moreover, the Carmér-Rao Lower Bounds (CRLBs for both scenarios are derived, and the performance degradation of velocity estimation without the position information is also expressed. Simulation results show that the proposed estimation methods can approach the CRLBs, and the velocity estimation performance can be further improved by increasing either the number of radar antennas or the information accuracy of the target position. Furthermore, compared with the existing methods, a better estimation performance can be achieved.

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

Long-term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energies in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pregger, Thomas; Nitsch, Joachim; Naegler, Tobias

2013-01-01

The transformation of the energy supply in Germany (the “Energiewende”) as described in the German Federal government’s ‘Energy Concept’ (Energiekonzept, 2010) is based on a political consensus about long-term targets for energy efficiency and renewable energies. The aim of this article is to present a consistent scenario for this transformation process reflecting the long-term implementation of renewable energies and the possible future structure of the German energy system as a whole. Structural and economic effects of this development are derived and discussed. It summarizes results of scenario analyses done by the department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment of the German Aerospace Center as part of a three-year research project for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment. The underlying study provides a detailed data base reflecting a long-term roadmap for the energy system transformation in Germany. The scenarios show that the policy targets are consistent and can be achieved, if appropriate policy measures are to be implemented. The economic analysis shows the amount of investments and the strong market dynamics required for new generation technologies but also the huge economic benefits that can result from this development path in terms of fuel cost savings and lower fuel imports. - Highlights: • Long-term scenario for the German energy system according to the political targets. • Comparison of three variants with differing developments of the fleets of vehicles. • Analysis of economic effects: investments, generation and differential costs. • Importance of strategies in the sectors electricity, heat, and transportation. • Recommended measures for the successful implementation of the CO 2 reductions

Differences, or lack thereof, in wheat and maize yields under three low-warming scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Tebaldi, Claudia; Lobell, David

2018-06-01

The availability of climate model experiments under three alternative scenarios stabilizing at warming targets inspired by the COP21 agreements (a 1.5 °C not exceed, a 1.5 °C with overshoot and a 2.0 °C) makes it possible to assess future expected changes in global yields for two staple crops, wheat and maize. In this study an empirical model of the relation between crop yield anomalies and temperature and precipitation changes, with or without the inclusion of CO2 fertilization effects, is used to produce ensembles of time series of yield outcomes on a yearly basis over the course of the 21st century, for each scenario. The 21st century is divided into 10 year windows starting from 2020, within which the statistical significance and the magnitude of the differences in yield changes between pairs of scenarios are assessed, thus evaluating if and when benefits of mitigations appear, and how substantial they are. Additionally, a metric of extreme heat tailored to the individual crops (number of days during the growing season above a crop-specific threshold) is used to measure exposure to harmful temperatures under the different scenarios. If CO2 effects are not included, statistically significant differences in yields of both crops appear as early as the 2030s but the magnitude of the differences remains below 3% of the historical baseline in all cases until the second part of the century. In the later decades of the 21st century, differences remain small and eventually stop being statistically significant between the two scenarios stabilizing at 1.5 °C, while differences between these two lower scenarios and the 2.0 °C scenario grow to about 4%. The inclusion of CO2 effects erases all significant benefits of mitigation for wheat, while the significance of differences is maintained for maize yields between the higher and the two lower scenarios, albeit with smaller benefits in magnitude. Changes in extremes are significant within each of the scenarios

Cyclotron production of radioactive gas from gaseous targets: inhomogeneity of the target activity - optimum flow rate of the carrier gas - cross sections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peters, J.-M.; Fiore, G. del; Quaglia, L.; Depresseux, J.-C.; Bartsch, P.

1979-01-01

When short-lived radioactive gases are produced by cyclotron-irradiated gaseous targets, the yield of activity, at the site of delivery, depends on the flow rate in the gas-carrying line. The authors improve a preliminarily published previous single model by the introduction of a supplementary hypothesis which takes into account the inhomogeneity of the activity in the gaseous target. By substituting the NTP volume of the gas in the irradiation cell Vsub(c) by a visible volume Vsub(a) depending on the flow rate and expressed by Vsub(a) = Vsub(infinity) +(V 0 - Vsub(infinity))exp(-kDsub(p)), they derive the following general expression for the optimum flow rate D which gives a maximum yield of production. D 2 -bD-bc-D 2 akexp(-kD)-abexp(-kD) = 0, a=lambda(V 0 -Vsub(infinity)), b = lambdaVsub(r), c = lambdaVsub(infinity), lambda = the decay constant of the radionuclide produced,Vsub(r) the inner volume of the gas-carrying line. The unknown parameters Vsub(r), Vsub(a), V 0 , Vsub(infinity), and k can be determined experimentally. The authors also suggest a new method for the determination of experimental cross sections with their gaseous target. (Auth.)

Target virus log10 reduction values determined for two reclaimed wastewater irrigation scenarios in Japan based on tolerable annual disease burden.

Science.gov (United States)

Ito, Toshihiro; Kitajima, Masaaki; Kato, Tsuyoshi; Ishii, Satoshi; Segawa, Takahiro; Okabe, Satoshi; Sano, Daisuke

2017-11-15

Multiple-barriers are widely employed for managing microbial risks in water reuse, in which different types of wastewater treatment units (biological treatment, disinfection, etc.) and health protection measures (use of personal protective gear, vegetable washing, etc.) are combined to achieve a performance target value of log 10 reduction (LR) of viruses. The LR virus target value needs to be calculated based on the data obtained from monitoring the viruses of concern and the water reuse scheme in the context of the countries/regions where water reuse is implemented. In this study, we calculated the virus LR target values under two exposure scenarios for reclaimed wastewater irrigation in Japan, using the concentrations of indigenous viruses in untreated wastewater and a defined tolerable annual disease burden (10 -4 or 10 -6 disability-adjusted life years per person per year (DALY pppy )). Three genogroups of norovirus (norovirus genogroup I (NoV GI), geogroup II (NoV GII), and genogroup IV (NoV GIV)) in untreated wastewater were quantified as model viruses using reverse transcription-microfluidic quantitative PCR, and only NoV GII was present in quantifiable concentration. The probabilistic distribution of NoV GII concentration in untreated wastewater was then estimated from its concentration dataset, and used to calculate the LR target values of NoV GII for wastewater treatment. When an accidental ingestion of reclaimed wastewater by Japanese farmers was assumed, the NoV GII LR target values corresponding to the tolerable annual disease burden of 10 -6 DALY pppy were 3.2, 4.4, and 5.7 at 95, 99, and 99.9%tile, respectively. These percentile values, defined as "reliability," represent the cumulative probability of NoV GII concentration distribution in untreated wastewater below the corresponding tolerable annual disease burden after wastewater reclamation. An approximate 1-log 10 difference of LR target values was observed between 10 -4 and 10 -6 DALY pppy

Production, separation and target preparation of 171Tm an 147Pm for neutron cross section measurements

CERN Document Server

Heinitz, S; Schumann, D; Dressler, R; Kivel, N; Guerrero, C; Köster, U; Tessler, M; Paul, M; Halfon, S

2015-01-01

The knowledge of the neutron capture cross sections of s-process branching point isotopes represents a basic requirement for the understanding of star evolution. Since such branching point isotopes are by definition radioactive, the measurement of their cross sections from thermal to stellar energies becomes a challenging task. Considerable amounts of material have to be produced, representing a significant radioactive hazard. We report here on the production and separation of 3.5 mg 171Tm from 240 mg 170Er2O3 and 72 µg 147Pm from 100 mg 146Nd2O3 irradiated at the ILL high flux reactor. Thin targets were prepared with high chemical and radioisotopic purity suitable for neutron capture measurements at n_TOF CERN and the SARAF-LiLiT facility.

Precision measurement of the $^{7}$Be(p, $\\gamma$)$\\,^{8}$B cross section with an implanted $^{7}$Be target

CERN Document Server

Baby, L.T.; Goldring, G.; Hass, M.; Weissman, L.; Fedoseyev, V.N.; Koester, U.; Nir-El, Y.; Haquin, G.; Gaggeler, H.W.; Weinreich, R.

2003-01-01

The $^{7}$Be(p, $\\gamma$) $\\,^{8}$B reaction plays a central role in the evaluation of solar neutrino fluxes. We report on a new precision measurement of the cross section of this reaction, following our previous experiment with an implanted $^{7}$Be target, a raster- scanned beam, and the elimination of the backscattering loss. The new measurement incorporates a more abundant $^{7}$Be target and a number of improvements in design and procedure. The point at E$_{lab}$ = 991 keV was measured several times under varying experimental conditions, yielding a value of S$_{17}$(E$_{c.m.}$ = 850 keV) = 24.0 $\\pm$ 0.5 eV b. Measurements were carried out at lower energies as well. Because of the precise knowledge of the implanted $^{7}$Be density profile, it was possible to reconstitute both the off- and on-resonance parts of the cross section and to obtain from the entire set of measurements an extrapolated value of S$_{17}$(0)=21.2 $\\pm$ 0.7 eV b.

Triatoma dimidiata infestation in Chagas disease endemic regions of Guatemala: comparison of random and targeted cross-sectional surveys.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond J King

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Guatemala is presently engaged in the Central America Initiative to interrupt Chagas disease transmission by reducing intradomiciliary prevalence of Triatoma dimidiata, using targeted cross-sectional surveys to direct control measures to villages exceeding the 5% control threshold. The use of targeted surveys to guide disease control programs has not been evaluated. Here, we compare the findings from the targeted surveys to concurrent random cross-sectional surveys in two primary foci of Chagas disease transmission in central and southeastern Guatemala. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Survey prevalences of T. dimidiata intradomiciliary infestation by village and region were compared. Univariate logistic regression was used to assess the use of risk factors to target surveys and to evaluate indicators associated with village level intradomiciliary prevalences >5% by survey and region. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed to assess the ability of random and targeted surveys to target villages with intradomiciliary prevalence exceeding the control threshold within each region. Regional prevalences did not vary by survey; however, village prevalences were significantly greater in random surveys in central (13.0% versus 8.7% and southeastern (22.7% versus 6.9% Guatemala. The number of significant risk factors detected did not vary by survey in central Guatemala but differed considerably in the southeast with a greater number of significant risk factors in the random survey (e.g. land surface temperature, relative humidity, cropland, grassland, tile flooring, and stick and mud and palm and straw walls. Differences in the direction of risk factor associations were observed between regions in both survey types. The overall discriminative capacity was significantly greater in the random surveys in central and southeastern Guatemala, with an area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC of 0.84 in the random surveys and

Food scenarios 2025

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Application of the dosimetric model described by Humm to target 131I monoclonal antibodies to leukaemic cells in the cerebrospinal fluid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papanastassiou, V.; Pizer, B.L.; Kemshead, J.T.

1993-01-01

In 1986 Humm suggested a dosimetric model for targeted radiation therapy that considered both the physical characteristics of the radionuclide used and the morphology of the targeted tumour. Using this model he described the dose advantage due to antibody binding in terms of a ratio of tumour radiation dose to that of normal tissue. The model applied to non-solid tumours assumes no cell clumping and hence no cross-fire effect. The authors demonstrate the direct application of the model to a particular clinical scenario; the targeting of 131 I monoclonal antibodies to leukaemic cells within the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). In this situation the dose advantage is much higher than the figure reported by Humm, which was arrived at by considering a more general application of the model. (author)

Marine target detection in quad-pol synthetic aperture radar imagery based on the relative phase of cross-polarized channels

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yunhua; Li, Huimin; Zhang, Yanmin; Guo, Lixin

2015-01-01

A focus on marine target detection in noise corrupted fully polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is presented. The property of the relative phase between two cross-polarized channels reveals that the relative phases evaluated within sea surface area or noise corrupted area are widely spread phase angle region [-π,π] due to decorrelation effect; however, the relative phases are concentrated to zero and ±π for real target and its first-order azimuth ambiguities (FOAAs), respectively. Exploiting this physical behavior, the reciprocal of the mean square value of the relative phase (RMSRP) is defined as a new parameter for target detection, and the experiments based on fully polarimetric Radarsat-2 SAR images show that the strong noise and the FOAAs can be effectively suppressed in RMSRP image. Meanwhile, validity of the new parameter for target detection is also verified by two typical Radarsat-2 SAR images, in which targets' ambiguities and strong noise are present.

Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karlsson, K; Joergensen, Kaj [Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK); Werling, J; OErsted Pedersen, H; Kofoed-Wiuff, A [Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK)

2008-02-15

The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas emissions

Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

2016-12-01

This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

COST MEASUREMENT AND COST MANAGEMENT IN TARGET COSTING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moisello Anna Maria

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Firms are coping with a competitive scenario characterized by quick changes produced by internationalization, concentration, restructuring, technological innovation processes and financial market crisis. On the one hand market enlargement have increased the number and the segmentation of customers and have raised the number of competitors, on the other hand technological innovation has reduced product life cycle. So firms have to adjust their management models to this scenario, pursuing customer satisfaction and respecting cost constraints. In a context where price is a variable fixed by the market, firms have to switch from the cost measurement logic to the cost management one, adopting target costing methodology. The target costing process is a price driven, customer oriented profit planning and cost management system. It works, in a cross functional way, from the design stage throughout all the product life cycle and it involves the entire value chain. The process implementation needs a costing methodology consistent with the cost management logic. The aim of the paper is to focus on Activity Based Costing (ABC application to target costing process. So: -it analyzes target costing logic and phases, basing on a literary review, in order to highlight the costing needs related to this process; -it shows, through a numerical example, how to structure a flexible ABC model – characterized by the separation between variable, fixed in the short and fixed costs - that effectively supports target costing process in the cost measurement phase (drifting cost determination and in the target cost alignment; -it points out the effectiveness of the Activity Based Costing as a model of cost measurement applicable to the supplier choice and as a support for supply cost management which have an important role in target costing process. The activity based information allows a firm to optimize the supplier choice by following the method of minimizing the

Cross sections for the production of Li and Be isotopes in carbon targets irradiated by 300 GeV protons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raisbeck, G.M.; Lestringuez, J.; Yiou, F.

1975-01-01

Cross sections for the production of Li and Be isotopes in carbon targets irradiated by 300 GeV protons were measured by mass spectrometry. The results are compared with lower energy measurements and discussed in terms of the variation of the cosmic ray L/M ratio in this energy region [fr

LHC benchmark scenarios for the real Higgs singlet extension of the standard model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robens, Tania; Stefaniak, Tim

2016-01-01

We present benchmark scenarios for searches for an additional Higgs state in the real Higgs singlet extension of the Standard Model in Run 2 of the LHC. The scenarios are selected such that they fulfill all relevant current theoretical and experimental constraints, but can potentially be discovered at the current LHC run. We take into account the results presented in earlier work and update the experimental constraints from relevant LHC Higgs searches and signal rate measurements. The benchmark scenarios are given separately for the low-mass and high-mass region, i.e. the mass range where the additional Higgs state is lighter or heavier than the discovered Higgs state at around 125 GeV. They have also been presented in the framework of the LHC Higgs Cross Section Working Group. (orig.)

Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yevgeniya Arushanyan

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

Model France. Efficiently achieving climate protection targets. Nuclear power phase-out scenario adapted in favour of climate protection; Vorbild Frankreich. Klimaschutzziele effizient erreichen. Ausstiegszenario Kernkraft zugunsten des Klimaschutzes angepasst

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leidinger, Tobias [Luther Rechtsanwaltsgesellschaft, Duesseldorf (Germany)

2017-12-15

In Germany - after an abrupt, legally controversial and in some cases unconstitutional phase-out of nuclear power (''at any price'') - the next phase-out of is now being negotiated among new coalition partners. In France, on the other hand, energy and climate protection seem to be in the clear sense of the word: the French nuclear phase-out scenario is clearly being ''stretched out'' in order to achieve the promised climate protection targets. Reason seems to have the upper hand in France: instead of ''black-and-white scenarios'', one prefers to stick to what is in reality feasible and achievable. In reality, the expansion of renewable energies, the regulation of the transport sector and electricity production from nuclear energy are not opposites, but complement each other in the interests of affordable energy and effective climate protection.

Deterministic earthquake scenarios for the city of Sofia

CERN Document Server

Slavov, S I; Panza, G F; Paskaleva, I; Vaccari, P

2002-01-01

The city of Sofia is exposed to a high seismic risk. Macroseismic intensities in the range of VIII-X (MSK) can be expected in the city. The earthquakes, that can influence the hazard at Sofia, originate either beneath the city or are caused by seismic sources located within a radius of 40km. The city of Sofia is also prone to the remote Vrancea seismic zone in Romania, and particularly vulnerable are the long - period elements of the built environment. The high seismic risk and the lack of instrumental recordings of the regional seismicity makes the use of appropriate credible earthquake scenarios and ground motion modelling approaches for defining the seismic input for the city of Sofia necessary. Complete synthetic seismic signals, due to several earthquake scenarios, were computed along chosen geological profiles crossing the city, applying a hybrid technique, based on the modal summation technique and finite differences. The modelling takes into account simultaneously the geotechnical properties of the si...

Remediation scenarios for attenuating peak flows and reducing sediment transport in Fountain Creek, Colorado, 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Kohn, Michael S.; Fulton, John W.; Williams, Cory A.; Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Fountain Creek Watershed, Flood Control and Greenway District assessed remediation scenarios to attenuate peak flows and reduce sediment loads in the Fountain Creek watershed. To evaluate these strategies, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) hydrologic and hydraulic models were employed. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers modeling system HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Modeling System) version 3.5 was used to simulate runoff in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, associated with storms of varying magnitude and duration. Rain-gage precipitation data and radar-based precipitation data from the April 28–30, 1999, and September 14–15, 2011, storm events were used in the calibration process for the HEC-HMS model. The curve number and lag time for each subwatershed and Manning's roughness coefficients for each channel reach were adjusted within an acceptable range so that the simulated and measured streamflow hydrographs for each of the 12 USGS streamgages approximated each other. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers modeling system HEC-RAS (River Analysis System) versions 4.1 and 4.2 were used to simulate streamflow and sediment transport, respectively, for the Fountain Creek watershed generated by a particular storm event. Data from 15 USGS streamgages were used for model calibration and 7 of those USGS streamgages were used for model validation. The calibration process consisted of comparing the simulated water-surface elevations and the cross-section-averaged velocities from the model with those surveyed in the field at the cross section at the corresponding 15 and 7 streamgages, respectively. The final Manning’s roughness coefficients were adjusted between –30 and 30 percent at the 15 calibration streamgages from the original left, right, and channel-averaged Manning's roughness coefficients upon completion of calibration. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers modeling system HEC

Quantifying the impact of cross coverage on physician's workload and performance in radiation oncology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mosaly, Prithima R; Mazur, Lukasz M; Jones, Ellen L; Hoyle, Lesley; Zagar, Timothy; Chera, Bhishamjit S; Marks, Lawrence B

2013-01-01

To quantitatively assess the difference in workload and performance of radiation oncology physicians during radiation therapy treatment planning tasks under the conditions of "cross coverage" versus planning a patient with whom they were familiar. Eight physicians (3 experienced faculty physicians and 5 physician residents) performed 2 cases. The first case represented a "cross-coverage" scenario where the physicians had no prior information about the case to be planned. The second exposure represented a "regular-coverage" scenario where the physicians were familiar with the patient case to be planned. Each case involved 3 tasks to be completed systematically. Workload was assessed both subjectively (perceived) using National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Task Load Index (NASA-TLX), and objectively (physiological) throughout the task using eye data (via monitoring pupil size and blink rate). Performance of each task and the case was measured using completion time. Subjective willingness to approve or disapprove the generated plan was obtained after completion of the case only. Forty-eight perceived and 48 physiological workload assessments were obtained. Overall, results revealed a significant increase in perceived workload (high NASA-TLX score) and decrease in performance (longer completion time and reduced approval rate) during cross coverage. There were nonsignificant increases in pupil diameter and decreases in the blink rate during cross-coverage versus regular-coverage scenario. In both cross-coverage and regular-coverage scenarios the level of experience did not affect workload and performance. The cross-coverage scenario significantly increases perceived workload and degrades performance versus regular coverage. Hence, to improve patient safety, efforts must be made to develop policies, standard operating procedures, and usability improvements to electronic medical record and treatment planning systems for "easier" information processing to deal with

Folic acid-targeted disulfide-based cross-linking micelle for enhanced drug encapsulation stability and site-specific drug delivery against tumors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Y

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Yumin Zhang,1,* Junhui Zhou,2,* Cuihong Yang,1 Weiwei Wang,3 Liping Chu,1 Fan Huang,1 Qiang Liu,1 Liandong Deng,2 Deling Kong,3 Jianfeng Liu,1 Jinjian Liu1 1Tianjin Key Laboratory of Radiation Medicine and Molecular Nuclear Medicine, Institute of Radiation Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Science and Peking Union Medical College, 2Department of Polymer Science and Technology, School of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Tianjin University, 3Tianjin Key Laboratory of Biomaterial Research, Institute of Biomedical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Medical Science and Peking Union Medical College, Tianjin, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally in this work Abstract: Although the shortcomings of small molecular antitumor drugs were efficiently improved by being entrapped into nanosized vehicles, premature drug release and insufficient tumor targeting demand innovative approaches that boost the stability and tumor responsiveness of drug-loaded nanocarriers. Here, we show the use of the core cross-linking method to generate a micelle with enhanced drug encapsulation ability and sensitivity of drug release in tumor. This kind of micelle could increase curcumin (Cur delivery to HeLa cells in vitro and improve tumor accumulation in vivo. We designed and synthesized the core cross-linked micelle (CCM with polyethylene glycol and folic acid-polyethylene glycol as the hydrophilic units, pyridyldisulfide as the cross-linkable and hydrophobic unit, and disulfide bond as the cross-linker. CCM showed spherical shape with a diameter of 91.2 nm by the characterization of dynamic light scattering and transmission electron microscope. Attributed to the core cross-linking, drug-loaded CCM displayed higher Nile Red or Cur-encapsulated stability and better sensitivity to glutathione than noncross-linked micelle (NCM. Cellular uptake and in vitro antitumor studies proved the enhanced endocytosis and better cytotoxicity of CCM-Cur against

Exploring scenarios for more sustainable heating: The case of Niš, Serbia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zivkovic, Marija; Pereverza, Kateryna; Pasichnyi, Oleksii; Madzarevic, Aleksandar; Ivezic, Dejan; Kordas, Olga

2016-01-01

Sustainability transformation of the heating sector is recognised as being essential for reaching climate and environmental targets while improving the quality of life in cities worldwide. Participatory strategic planning enabled by scenario methods can be an important tool to guide this transformation, but methods for qualitative scenario analysis supporting stakeholder participation must be further developed and tested in the context of different cities. This paper presents results from integration of urban energy system modelling into the participatory strategic planning process implemented in the city of Niš, which suffers problems typical of the heating sector in Serbia and the Western Balkans. The aim was to explore how the scenarios developed by local stakeholders could transform the Niš heating system by 2030. Five scenarios developed within participatory backcasting project and a BAU scenario were analysed in terms of decarbonisation, energy security and energy efficiency using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). A final scenario “Efficiency for the green future” designed by the stakeholders for implementation in the city included high standards of energy efficiency in buildings, increased share of renewables in the heating energy mix, expanding the district heating system, deploying smart technologies and green architecture. The LEAP model demonstrated that this final scenario could lead to achievement of the desirable future vision developed by stakeholders for Niš, through substantial improvements in energy efficiency and energy security, and to considerable emissions decreases by 2030 in comparison with the base year (2010) and the BAU scenario. - Highlights: • Energy system modelling is integrated into the participatory backcasting process. • Five scenarios and BAU for heating system in Niš by 2030 are analysed in LEAP. • The final scenario is based on EE, RES, DH, smart technologies and green architecture. • The

Comprehensive target populations for current active safety systems using national crash databases.

Science.gov (United States)

Kusano, Kristofer D; Gabler, Hampton C

2014-01-01

The objective of active safety systems is to prevent or mitigate collisions. A critical component in the design of active safety systems is the identification of the target population for a proposed system. The target population for an active safety system is that set of crashes that a proposed system could prevent or mitigate. Target crashes have scenarios in which the sensors and algorithms would likely activate. For example, the rear-end crash scenario, where the front of one vehicle contacts another vehicle traveling in the same direction and in the same lane as the striking vehicle, is one scenario for which forward collision warning (FCW) would be most effective in mitigating or preventing. This article presents a novel set of precrash scenarios based on coded variables from NHTSA's nationally representative crash databases in the United States. Using 4 databases (National Automotive Sampling System-General Estimates System [NASS-GES], NASS Crashworthiness Data System [NASS-CDS], Fatality Analysis Reporting System [FARS], and National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey [NMVCCS]) the scenarios developed in this study can be used to quantify the number of police-reported crashes, seriously injured occupants, and fatalities that are applicable to proposed active safety systems. In this article, we use the precrash scenarios to identify the target populations for FCW, pedestrian crash avoidance systems (PCAS), lane departure warning (LDW), and vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) or vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) systems. Crash scenarios were derived using precrash variables (critical event, accident type, precrash movement) present in all 4 data sources. This study found that these active safety systems could potentially mitigate approximately 1 in 5 of all severity and serious injury crashes in the United States and 26 percent of fatal crashes. Annually, this corresponds to 1.2 million all severity, 14,353 serious injury (MAIS 3+), and 7412 fatal crashes. In addition

Cross sections for the production of Li and Be isotopes in carbon targets irradiated by 300 GeV protons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raisbeck, G.M.; Lestringuez, J.; Yiou, F.

1975-01-01

Cross sections for the production of Li and Be isotopes in carbon targets irradiated by 300 GeV protons have been measured by mass spectrometry. The results are compared with lower energy measurements and discussed in terms of the variation of the cosmic ray L/M ratio in the energy region [fr

Adaptive scenarios: a training model for today's public health workforce.

Science.gov (United States)

Uden-Holman, Tanya; Bedet, Jennifer; Walkner, Laurie; Abd-Hamid, Nor Hashidah

2014-01-01

With the current economic climate, money for training is scarce. In addition, time is a major barrier to participation in trainings. To meet the public health workforce's rising demand for training, while struggling with less time and fewer resources, the Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center has developed a model of online training that provides the public health workforce with individually customized, needs-based training experiences. Adaptive scenarios are rooted in case-based reasoning, a learning approach that focuses on the specific knowledge needed to solve a problem. Proponents of case-based reasoning argue that learners benefit from being able to remember previous similar situations and reusing information and knowledge from that situation. Adaptive scenarios based on true-to-life job performance provide an opportunity to assess skills by presenting the user with choices to make in a problem-solving context. A team approach was used to develop the adaptive scenarios. Storylines were developed that incorporated situations aligning with the knowledge, skills, and attitudes outlined in the Public Health Preparedness and Response Core Competency Model. This article examines 2 adaptive scenarios: "Ready or Not? A Family Preparedness Scenario" and "Responding to a Crisis: Managing Emotions and Stress Scenario." The scenarios are available on Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center's Learning Management System, the Training Source (http://training-source.org). Evaluation data indicate that users' experiences have been positive. Integrating the assessment and training elements of the scenarios so that the training experience is uniquely adaptive to each user is one of the most efficient ways to provide training. The opportunity to provide individualized, needs-based training without having to administer separate assessments has the potential to save time and resources. These adaptive scenarios continue to be

Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

2012-01-01

In this paper we use a technological model of Ireland's future car stock to simulate the impact of a range of policy measures on the baseline trend in energy demand in the period to 2030. The policies and measures modelled comprise meeting deployment targets for electric vehicles and compressed natural gas vehicles, an EU regulation for the improvement of vehicle efficiency, implementation of a national biofuel obligation, as well as several behavioural measures (encouraging modal shifting and reduced travel demand). The impact of the different measures simulated is measured in terms of their contribution to meeting Ireland's ambitious targets for energy savings, for renewable energy penetration and for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. The results point to a possible improvement of 32% in car stock efficiency, the achievement of 7.8% renewable energy share of road and rail transport and a 22% reduction in non-ETS private car CO 2 emissions relative to 2009 levels. A scenario analysis on meeting the EV penetration target shows a significant range of CO 2 emissions reductions depending on the cars (and mileage) displaced and on the electricity generation portfolio. - Highlights: ► Private car policy scenarios for Ireland modelled. ► Impact of vehicle efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural measures evaluated. ► Highlights distance to EU non-ETS emissions and renewable energy targets. ► Analysis of EV target shows that GHG mitigation potential is very sensitive.

Potential for reducing air-pollutants while achieving 2 °C global temperature change limit target.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Akashi, Osamu; Fujiwara, Kazuya; Motoki, Yuko; Hibino, Go

2014-12-01

This study analyzes the potential to reduce air pollutants while achieving the 2 °C global temperature change limit target above pre-industrial levels, by using the bottom-up optimization model, AIM/Enduse[Global]. This study focuses on; 1) estimating mitigation potentials and costs for achieving 2 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3 °C target scenarios, 2) assessing co-benefits of reducing air pollutants such as NOx, SO2, BC, PM, and 3) analyzing features of sectoral attributions in Annex I and Non-Annex I groups of countries. The carbon tax scenario at 50 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 can reduce GHG emissions more than the 3 °C target scenario, but a higher carbon price around 400 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 is required to achieve the 2 °C target scenario. However, there is also a co-benefit of large reduction potential of air pollutants, in the range of 60-80% reductions in 2050 from the reference scenario while achieving the 2 °C target. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-ETS emission targets for 2030. Indication of emission targets for the Netherlands and other EU Member States under the European Effort Sharing Decision

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verdonk, M.; Hof, A.

2013-10-15

As European Member States are making progress towards their 2020 targets in the Effort Sharing Decision, the attention of policymakers is shifting to a framework beyond 2020. The European Commission launched a discussion with its Green Paper on a possible policy framework for 2030. This PBL Note aims to contribute to that discussion by analysing the effects of various assumptions on Member States' non-ETS emission targets for 2030. The effort sharing of the current European target for 2020 has resulted in an emission target of +20% relative to 2005 levels for the least wealthy Member State and -20% for the three wealthiest Member States. The targets for all other Member States were determined based on per-capita income levels of 2005. For possible non-ETS targets for 2030, we assumed a Europe-wide emission reduction target of 40% for 2030, compared to 1990 levels. This target is considered by the European Commission as the most cost-efficient to achieve a low-carbon economy by 2050. The 2030 target was split into a target for emissions covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and one for emissions that are not covered by the ETS (non-ETS). According to our estimations, European non-ETS emissions need to be reduced by around 30% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. We distributed the non-ETS reduction target of 30% over the Member States by using similar effort sharing principles that are applied in the EU Effort Sharing Decision for 2020, but with different targets assumed for the least wealthy Member State. We also took recent per-capita income levels into account. However, we did not take into account the costs and effects of emission reductions on GDP. This PBL Note analyses two possible scenarios that differ in the target assumed for the least wealthy Member State, in order to assess the effects of differing assumptions on the 2030 non-ETS targets. These scenarios should be considered as 'what if' scenarios and not as political positions

From Modelling to Execution of Enterprise Integration Scenarios: The GENIUS Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Scheibler, Thorsten; Leymann, Frank

One of the predominant problems IT companies are facing today is Enterprise Application Integration (EAI). Most of the infrastructures built to tackle integration issues are proprietary because no standards exist for how to model, develop, and actually execute integration scenarios. EAI patterns gain importance for non-technical business users to ease and harmonize the development of EAI scenarios. These patterns describe recurring EAI challenges and propose possible solutions in an abstract way. Therefore, one can use those patterns to describe enterprise architectures in a technology neutral manner. However, patterns are documentation only used by developers and systems architects to decide how to implement an integration scenario manually. Thus, patterns are not theoretical thought to stand for artefacts that will immediately be executed. This paper presents a tool supporting a method how EAI patterns can be used to generate executable artefacts for various target platforms automatically using a model-driven development approach, hence turning patterns into something executable. Therefore, we introduce a continuous tool chain beginning at the design phase and ending in executing an integration solution in a completely automatically manner. For evaluation purposes we introduce a scenario demonstrating how the tool is utilized for modelling and actually executing an integration scenario.

Integrative Scenario Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joerg A. Priess

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

Reaction cross sections for 8He and 14B on proton target for the separation of proton and neutron density distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Masaomi; Fukuda, Mitsunori; Nishimura, Daiki

2015-01-01

We utilized the proton-neutron asymmetry of nucleon–nucleon total cross sections in the intermediate energy region (σ pn ≠σ pp(nn) ) to obtain the information of proton and neutron distributions respectively. We have measured reaction cross sections (σ R ) for 14 B and 8 He on proton targets as isospin asymmetric targets in addition to symmetric ones. Proton and neutron density distributions were derived respectively through the χ 2 -fitting procedure with the modified Glauber calculation. The result suggests a necessity for 14 B of a long tail, and also a necessity for 8 He of a neutron tail. Root-mean-square proton, neutron and matter radii for 14 B and 8 He are also derived. Each radius is consistent with some of the other experimental values and also with some of the several theoretical values. (author)

Heavy fragment production cross sections from 1.05 GeV/nucleon 56Fe in C, Al, Cu, Pb, and CH2 targets

Science.gov (United States)

Zeitlin, C.; Heilbronn, L.; Miller, J.; Rademacher, S. E.; Borak, T.; Carter, T. R.; Frankel, K. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Stronach, C. E.; Chatterjee, A. (Principal Investigator)

1997-01-01

We have obtained charge-changing cross sections and partial cross sections for fragmentation of 1.05 GeV/nucleon Fe projectiles incident on H, C, Al, Cu, and Pb nuclei. The energy region covered by this experiment is critical for an understanding of galactic cosmic ray propagation and space radiation biophysics. Surviving primary beam particles and fragments with charges from 12 to 25 produced within a forward cone of half-angle 61 mrad were detected using a silicon detector telescope to identify their charge and the cross sections were calculated after correction of the measured yields for finite target thickness effects. The cross sections are compared to model calculations and to previous measurements. Cross sections for the production of fragments with even-numbered nuclear charges are seen to be enhanced in almost all cases.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-08-01

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm^–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

Preparation and characterization of three 7Be targets for the measurement of the 7Be(n, p)7Li and 7Be(n, α)7Li reaction cross sections

Science.gov (United States)

Maugeri, E. A.; Heinitz, S.; Dressler, R.; Barbagallo, M.; Ulrich, J.; Schumann, D.; Colonna, N.; Köster, U.; Ayranov, M.; Vontobel, P.; Mastromarco, M.; Schell, J.; Correia, J. Martins; Stora, T.; n TOF Collaboration

2018-05-01

This manuscript describes the production of three targets obtained by implantation of different activities of 7Be into thin aluminium disks. Two of the produced targets were used to measure the 7Be(n, p)7Li cross section in the energy range of interest for the Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis. A third target was used to measure the cross sections of 7Be(n, p)7Li and 7Be(n, α)7Li nuclear reactions with cold and thermal neutrons, respectively. This paper describes also the characterization of the first two targets, performed after the neutron irradiation, in terms of implanted 7Be activities and spatial distributions.

The effect of conformity tendency on pedestrians' road-crossing intentions in China: an application of the theory of planned behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Ronggang; Horrey, William J; Yu, Ruifeng

2009-05-01

This paper presents a survey investigating the effects of age, gender and conformity tendency on Chinese pedestrians' intention to cross the road in potentially dangerous situations. A sample of 426 respondents completed a demographic questionnaire, a scale measuring their tendency towards social conformity, and a questionnaire based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB). This questionnaire measured people's intentions to cross the road in two different road crossing situations, their attitude towards the behavior, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, anticipated affect, moral norms, and perceived risk. The two scenarios depicted (i) a situation where the crossing was consistent with other pedestrians' behavior (Conformity scenario) and (ii) a situation where the road crossing was inconsistent with other pedestrians (Non-Conformity scenario). Pedestrians reported greater likelihood in crossing the road when other pedestrians were crossing the road. People who showed greater tendencies towards social conformity also had stronger road crossing intentions than low conformity people for both scenarios. The predictive model explained 36% and 48% of the variance in the Non-Conformity and Conformity scenarios, respectively. Attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, and perceived risk emerged as the common predictors for both situations. The results have a number of theoretical and practical implications. In particular, interventions should focus on perceptions of risk that inform road users that crossing with other pedestrians against the signal is also unsafe and prohibited, and may lead to negative outcomes.

Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

2016-06-01

goes beyond the plans and targets announced by governments and policy makers. The Energy Transition Scenario assumes the implementation of those measures that are currently the most technically, economically, and politically mature for large-scale roll-out of energy efficiency and renewable energies. This Scenario assumes no major technology breakthrough, but the deployment of existing technologies and sound energy efficiency policies and measures across all Mediterranean countries. (authors)

Making or breaking climate targets : The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Bauer, Nico; Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Petermann, Nils; Bosetti, Valentina; Marcucci, Adriana; Otto, Sander; Paroussos, Leonidas; Rao, Shilpa; Arroyo Currás, Tabaré; Ashina, Shuichi; Bollen, Johannes; Eom, Jiyong; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Longden, Thomas; Kitous, Alban; Méjean, Aurélie; Sano, Fuminori; Schaeffer, Michiel; Wada, Kenichi; Capros, Pantelis; P. van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2015-01-01

This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition - the EU or the EU and China - embarks on immediate ambitious

On the influence of sample and target properties on the results of energy-dependent cross section measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, G.

1988-01-01

The impact of sample and target properties on the accuracy of experimental nuclear cross section data is discussed in the context of the basic requirements in order to obtain reliable results from the respective measurements from the user's point of view. Special emphasis is put on activation measurements with fast neutrons. Some examples are given and suggestions are made based on experiences and recent investigations by the author and his coworkers. (author). Abstract only

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

;reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in the CAS scenarios relies primarily on 2000 data, despite the existence of sufficiently complete statistics through to 2005. The DGEMP on the other hand used a study by the BIPE (Office for Economic Information and Forecasting) provided by the SESP, the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Spatial Planning's economic statistics and forecasting department. On the basis of the study's macro-economic projections of the French economy to 2020, the DGEMP was able to re-evaluate the prospects for activity in the industrial and tertiary sectors. In several respects (e.g. supply security, CO{sub 2} emissions, energy efficiency), the baseline scenario proposed here is clearly not a scenario conducive to satisfying French energy policy objectives. This is not a surprising conclusion in that it implies the need to implement new policies and measures in addition to those already in place or approved. In particular, this scenario would lead to importing 66 billion cubic meters of gas (59 Mtoe) in 2020 and 78 billion cubic meters (70 Mtoe) in 2030, compared with the present 44 billion cubic meters. In addition to the resulting CO{sub 2} emissions, the near doubling of gas imports would pose a twofold problem as to the geographic origin of the gas imported (under appropriate supply contracts) and the infrastructure (LNG terminals, gas pipelines) required to transport it. Finally, the baseline scenario is of course a long way from achieving the Community targets, whether for CO{sub 2} emissions, projected to rise continually until 2020 and then even faster until 2030 (due to transport and electric power generation), or for the share of renewable energy in the energy mix. In that regard, the share of renewable energy in 'enlarged' final energy consumption, as it is described in the 'energy and climate change package', would grow to 13.4% in 2020 (versus 23% in the

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benichou, Léo; Mayr, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benichou, Léo, E-mail: leo.benichou@theshiftproject.org [The Shift Project, Paris (France); Mayr, Sebastian, E-mail: communication@theshiftproject.org [Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po., Paris (France)

2014-01-13

Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

Total cross section measurement of muon neutrinos on isoscalar target. Exact determination of the electroweak mixing parameter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pain, R.

1987-09-01

The work presented in this thesis is concerned with high energy muon-neutrino nucleon interactions. The experiment was performed at CERN in 1984 using the CHARM marble target-calorimeter exposed to the 160 GeV narrow band beam. The experimental analysis is based on an event-by-event classification of neutral currents (NC) and charged currents (CC) interactions and on precise measurements of neutrinos and antineutrinos fluxes. This leads to precise measurements of CC total cross-sections of neutrinos and antineutrinos between 10 and 160 GeV and of NC to CC ratios of total cross-sections of events with hadron energy greater than 4 GeV: R n eutrino and R a ntineutrino. From the measurements of R n eutrino and of the ratio of CC total cross-sections of antineutrinos and neutrinos, we obtain a high precision value of the electroweak mixing angle. Comparison of this result with those obtained in proton-antiproton collisions make it possible to derive a measurement of electroweak radiative corrections and a precise determination of ρ [fr

A cross sectional evaluation of an alcohol intervention targeting young university students.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Sharyn; Jancey, Jonine; Crawford, Gemma; Hallett, Jonathan; Portsmouth, Linda; Longo, Janelle

2016-07-20

Hazardous drinking has been found to be higher among young university students compared to their non-university peers. Although young university students are exposed to new and exciting experiences, including greater availability and emphasis on social functions involving alcohol there are few multi strategy comprehensive interventions aimed at reducing alcohol-related harms. Random cross sectional online surveys were administered to 18-24 year old students studying at the main campus of a large metropolitan university in Perth, Western Australia. Prior to the completion of the second survey an alcohol intervention was implemented on campus. Completed surveys were received from 2465 (Baseline; T1) and 2422 (Post Year 1: T2) students. Students who consumed alcohol in the past 12 months were categorised as low risk or hazardous drinkers using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Due to the cross sectional nature of the two samples two-tailed two-proportion z-test and two sample t-tests were employed to determine statistical significance between the two time periods for categorical and continuous variables respectively. At T1 and T2 89.1 % and 87.2 % of the total sample reported drinking alcohol in the past month respectively. Hazardous levels of alcohol consumption reduced slightly between T1 (39.7 %) and T2 (38 %). In both time periods hazardous drinkers reported significantly higher mean scores for experienced harm, second-hand harm and witnessed harm scores compared to low risk drinkers (p alcohol consumption and to report more positive alcohol expectations than low risk drinkers at both time periods (p students who report hazardous drinking are of concern and efforts should be made to ensure integrated and targeted strategies reach higher risk students and focus on specific issues such as driving while intoxicated and alcohol related unplanned sexual activity. However there is also a need for universal strategies targeting all students and

Streptococcus sanguinis isolate displaying a phenotype with cross-resistance to several rRNA-targeting agents.

Science.gov (United States)

Mendes, Rodrigo E; Deshpande, Lalitagauri M; Kim, Jihye; Myers, Debra S; Ross, James E; Jones, Ronald N

2013-08-01

This study describes a clinical case of a 71-year-old male with a history of ischemic cardiomyopathy after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) endocarditis caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus epidermidis (MRSE) and a rare linezolid-resistant Streptococcus sanguinis strain (MIC, 32 μg/ml). The patient received courses of several antimicrobial agents, including linezolid for 79 days. The S. sanguinis strain had mutations in the 23S rRNA (T2211C, T2406C, G2576T, C2610T) and an amino acid substitution (N56D) in L22 and exhibited cross-resistance to ribosome-targeting agents.

Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

OpenAIRE

Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

2009-01-01

A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

Exclusive ρ0 meson cross section ratios on deuterium and hydrogen targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osborne, A.G.S.

2006-06-01

The HERMES experiment is a large forward angle spectrometer located at the HERA accelerator ring at DESY, Hamburg. This thesis presents the analysis of the kinematic dependencies of ρ 0 vector meson production on hydrogen and deuterium targets. The relative gluon and quark contribution to the ρ 0 production amplitude is expected to depend on the kinematical variable x Bj , and by measuring the ratio of ρ 0 electroproduction cross sections on deuterium and hydrogen from HERMES data this dependence is confirmed. This thesis describes the methods used to extract the cross section ratio from the HERMES data taken between the years 1996 and 2000 and compares the results with the theoretical predictions. Until 2005 the missing mass resolution of the HERMES spectrometer was only sufficient to allow exclusivity at the level of a data sample. The HERMES Recoil Detector, installed in early 2006, is an upgrade which will augment the HERMES spectrometer by establishing exclusivity at the event level and therefore improving the resolution to which various kinematical variables may be reconstructed. Additionally, the Recoil Detector will contribute to the overall background suppression capability of the HERMES spectrometer. These improvements will provide a strong reduction in the statistical uncertainties present in the ρ 0 -analysis and other analyses at HERMES. The Recoil Detector critically relies on its track reconstruction software to enable its capability to provide event level exclusive measurements. This tracking code is presented in detail. (orig.)

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Global travel within the 2 °C climate target

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Girod, Bastien; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Deetman, Sebastiaan

2012-01-01

Long-term scenarios generally project a steep increase in global travel demand, leading to an rapid rise in CO 2 emissions. Major driving forces are the increasing car use in developing countries and the global growth in air travel. Meeting the 2 °C climate target, however, requires a deep cut in CO 2 emissions. In this paper, we explore how extensive emission reductions may be achieved, using a newly developed travel model. This bottom-up model covers 26 world regions, 7 travel modes and different vehicle types. In the experiments, we applied a carbon tax and looked into the model’s responses in terms of overall travel demand, modal split shifts, and changes in technology and fuel choice. We introduce two main scenarios in which biofuels are assumed to be carbon neutral (not subject to taxation, scenario A) or to lead to some greenhouse gas emissions (and therefore subject to taxation, scenario B). This leads to very different outcomes. Scenario A achieves emission reductions mostly through changes in fuel use. In Scenario B efficiency improvement and model split changes also play a major role. In both scenarios total travel volume is affected only marginally. - Highlights: ► This study evaluates deep reduction in direct CO 2 emissions of passenger transportation. ► The TRAVEL model is used to derive cost optimal scenarios. ► TRAVEL considers changes in fuel use, energy efficiency and mode split. ► Emissions reductions in line with the 2 °C target are feasible. ► Despite high carbon tax resulting reduction in travel demand is low.

Search for neutral Higgs bosons in CP-conserving and CP-violating MSSM scenarios

CERN Document Server

Abbiendi, G.; Akesson, P.F.; Alexander, G.; Allison, John; Amaral, P.; Anagnostou, G.; Anderson, K.J.; Asai, S.; Axen, D.; Azuelos, G.; Bailey, I.; Barberio, E.; Barillari, T.; Barlow, R.J.; Batley, R.J.; Bechtle, P.; Behnke, T.; Bell, Kenneth Watson; Bell, P.J.; Bella, G.; Bellerive, A.; Benelli, G.; Bethke, S.; Biebel, O.; Boeriu, O.; Bock, P.; Boutemeur, M.; Braibant, S.; Brigliadori, L.; Brown, Robert M.; Buesser, K.; Burckhart, H.J.; Campana, S.; Carnegie, R.K.; Carter, A.A.; Carter, J.R.; Chang, C.Y.; Charlton, D.G.; Ciocca, C.; Csilling, A.; Cuffiani, M.; Dado, S.; De Roeck, A.; De Wolf, E.A.; Desch, K.; Dienes, B.; Donkers, M.; Dubbert, J.; Duchovni, E.; Duckeck, G.; Duerdoth, I.P.; Etzion, E.; Fabbri, F.; Feld, L.; Ferrari, P.; Fiedler, F.; Fleck, I.; Ford, M.; Frey, A.; Gagnon, P.; Gary, John William; Gaycken, G.; Geich-Gimbel, C.; Giacomelli, G.; Giacomelli, P.; Giunta, Marina; Goldberg, J.; Gross, E.; Grunhaus, J.; Gruwe, M.; Gunther, P.O.; Gupta, A.; Hajdu, C.; Hamann, M.; Hanson, G.G.; Harel, A.; Hauschild, M.; Hawkes, C.M.; Hawkings, R.; Hemingway, R.J.; Herten, G.; Heuer, R.D.; Hill, J.C.; Hoffman, Kara Dion; Horvath, D.; Igo-Kemenes, P.; Ishii, K.; Jeremie, H.; Jovanovic, P.; Junk, T.R.; Kanaya, N.; Kanzaki, J.; Karlen, D.; Kawagoe, K.; Kawamoto, T.; Keeler, R.K.; Kellogg, R.G.; Kennedy, B.W.; Kluth, S.; Kobayashi, T.; Kobel, M.; Komamiya, S.; Kramer, T.; Krieger, P.; von Krogh, J.; Kruger, K.; Kuhl, T.; Kupper, M.; Lafferty, G.D.; Landsman, H.; Lanske, D.; Layter, J.G.; Lellouch, D.; Lettso, J.; Levinson, L.; Lillich, J.; Lloyd, S.L.; Loebinger, F.K.; Lu, J.; Ludwig, A.; Ludwig, J.; Mader, W.; Marcellini, S.; Martin, A.J.; Masetti, G.; Mashimo, T.; Mattig, Peter; McKenna, J.; McPherson, R.A.; Meijers, F.; Menges, W.; Merritt, F.S.; Mes, H.; Meyer, Niels T.; Michelini, A.; Mihara, S.; Mikenberg, G.; Miller, D.J.; Moed, S.; Mohr, W.; Mori, T.; Mutter, A.; Nagai, K.; Nakamura, I.; Nanjo, H.; Neal, H.A.; Nisius, R.; O'Neale, S.W.; Oh, A.; Oreglia, M.J.; Orito, S.; Pahl, C.; Pasztor, G.; Pater, J.R.; Pilcher, J.E.; Pinfold, J.; Plane, David E.; Poli, B.; Pooth, O.; Przybycien, M.; Quadt, A.; Rabbertz, K.; Rembser, C.; Renkel, P.; Roney, J.M.; Rozen, Y.; Runge, K.; Sachs, K.; Saeki, T.; Sarkisyan, E.K.G.; Schaile, A.D.; Schaile, O.; Scharff-Hansen, P.; Schieck, J.; Schorner-Sadenius, T.; Schroder, Matthias; Schumacher, M.; Scott, W.G.; Seuster, R.; Shears, T.G.; Shen, B.C.; Sherwood, P.; Skuja, A.; Smith, A.M.; Sobie, R.; Soldner-Rembold, S.; Spano, F.; Stahl, A.; Strom, David M.; Strohmer, R.; Tarem, S.; Tasevsky, M.; Teuscher, R.; Thomson, M.A.; Torrence, E.; Toya, D.; Tran, P.; Trigger, I.; Trocsanyi, Z.; Tsur, E.; Turner-Watson, M.F.; Ueda, I.; Ujvari, B.; Vollmer, C.F.; Vannerem, P.; Vertesi, R.; Verzocchi, M.; Voss, H.; Vossebeld, J.; Ward, C.P.; Ward, D.R.; Watkins, P.M.; Watson, A.T.; Watson, N.K.; Wells, P.S.; Wengler, T.; Wermes, N.; Wilson, G.W.; Wilson, J.A.; Wolf, G.; Wyatt, T.R.; Yamashita, S.; Zer-Zion, D.; Zivkovic, Lidija

2004-01-01

This report summarizes the final results from the OPAL collaboration on searches for neutral Higgs bosons predicted by the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). CP-conserving and for the first time at LEP CP-violating scenarios are studied. New scenarios are also included, which aim to set the stage for Higgs searches at future colliders. The results are based on the data collected with the OPAL detector at e+e- centre-of-mass energies up to 209 GeV. The data are consistent with the prediction of the Standard Model with no Higgs boson produced. Model-independent limits are derived for the cross-section of a number of events topologies motivated by prediction of the MSSM. Limits on Higgs boson masses and other MSSM parameters are obtained for a number of representative MSSM benchmark scenarios. For example, in the CP-conserving scenario mh-max where the MSSM parameters are adjusted to predict the largest range of values for mh at each tan beta, and for a top quark mass of 174.3 GeV, the domain 0.784.5 ...

Plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in Sweden in 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Björkman, B.; Fridell, K.; Tavakol Olofsson, P.

2017-01-01

Introduction: Radiography is a healthcare speciality with many technical challenges. Advances in engineering and information technology applications may continue to drive and be driven by radiographers. The world of diagnostic imaging is changing rapidly and radiographers must be proactive in order to survive. To ensure sustainable development, organisations have to identify future opportunities and threats in a timely manner and incorporate them into their strategic planning. Hence, the aim of this study was to analyse and describe plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in 2025. Method: The study has a qualitative design with an inductive approach based on focus group interviews. The interviews were inspired by the Scenario-Planning method. Results: Of the seven trends identified in a previous study, the radiographers considered two as the most uncertain scenarios that would have the greatest impact on the profession should they occur. These trends, labelled “Access to career advancement” and “A sufficient number of radiographers”, were inserted into the scenario cross. The resulting four plausible future scenarios were: The happy radiographer, the specialist radiographer, the dying profession and the assembly line. Conclusion: It is suggested that “The dying profession” scenario could probably be turned in the opposite direction by facilitating career development opportunities for radiographers within the profession. Changing the direction would probably lead to a profession composed of “happy radiographers” who are specialists, proud of their profession and competent to carry out advanced tasks, in contrast to being solely occupied by “the assembly line”. - Highlights: • The world of radiography is changing rapidly and radiographers must be proactive in order to survive. • Future opportunities and threats should be identified and incorporated into the strategic planning. • Appropriate actions can probably change the

Cross-modal individual recognition in wild African lions.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilfillan, Geoffrey; Vitale, Jessica; McNutt, John Weldon; McComb, Karen

2016-08-01

Individual recognition is considered to have been fundamental in the evolution of complex social systems and is thought to be a widespread ability throughout the animal kingdom. Although robust evidence for individual recognition remains limited, recent experimental paradigms that examine cross-modal processing have demonstrated individual recognition in a range of captive non-human animals. It is now highly relevant to test whether cross-modal individual recognition exists within wild populations and thus examine how it is employed during natural social interactions. We address this question by testing audio-visual cross-modal individual recognition in wild African lions (Panthera leo) using an expectancy-violation paradigm. When presented with a scenario where the playback of a loud-call (roaring) broadcast from behind a visual block is incongruent with the conspecific previously seen there, subjects responded more strongly than during the congruent scenario where the call and individual matched. These findings suggest that lions are capable of audio-visual cross-modal individual recognition and provide a useful method for studying this ability in wild populations. © 2016 The Author(s).

Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karlsson, K.; Joergensen, Kaj. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK)); Werling, J.; OErsted Pedersen, H.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A. (Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK))

2008-02-15

The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas

Mobility Performance in Slow- and High-Speed LTE Real Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gimenez, Lucas Chavarria; Cascino, Maria Carmela; Stefan, Maria

2016-01-01

Mobility performance and handover data interruption times in real scenarios are studied by means of field measurements in an operational LTE network. Both slow- and high-speed scenarios are analyzed by collecting results from two different areas: Aalborg downtown and the highway which encircles...... in the city center as cells on the same site often cover different non-crossing street canyons. Moreover, no handover failures are experienced in the measurements which confirms robust LTE mobility performance. The average interruption time, which is at least equal to the handover execution time, lays within...... the same city. Measurements reveal that the terminal is configured by the network with different handover parametrization depending on the serving cell, which indicates the use of mobility robustness optimization. Although the network is dominated by three sector sites, no intra-site handovers are observed...

Deterministic and stochastic analysis of alternative climate targets under differentiated cooperation regimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loulou, Richard; Labriet, Maryse; Kanudia, Amit

2009-01-01

This article analyzes the feasibility of attaining a variety of climate targets during the 21st century, under alternative cooperation regimes by groups of countries. Five climate targets of increasing severity are analyzed, following the EMF-22 experiment. Each target is attempted under two cooperation regimes, a First Best scenario where all countries fully cooperate from 2012 on, and a Second Best scenario where the World is partitioned into three groups, and each group of countries enters the cooperation at a different date, and implement emission abatement actions in a progressive manner, once in the coalition. The resulting ten combinations are simulated via the ETSAP-TIAM technology based, integrated assessment model. In addition to the 10 separate case analyses, the article proposes a probabilistic treatment of three targets under the First Best scenario, and shows that the three forcing targets may in fact be interpreted as a single target on global temperature change, while assuming that the climate sensitivity C s is uncertain. It is shown that such an interpretation is possible only if the probability distribution of C s is carefully chosen. The analysis of the results shows that the lowest forcing level is unattainable unless immediate coordinated action is undertaken by all countries, and even so only at a high global cost. The middle and the high forcing levels are feasible at affordable global costs, even under the Second Best scenario. Another original contribution of this article is to explain why certain combinations of technological choices are made by the model, and in particular why the climate target clearly supersedes the usually accepted objective of improving energy efficiency. The analysis shows that under some climate targets, it is not optimal to improve energy efficiency, but rather to take advantage of certain technologies that help to reach the climate objective, but that happen to be less energy efficient than even the technologies

A scenario elicitation methodology to identify the drivers of electricity infrastructure cost in South America

Science.gov (United States)

Moksnes, Nandi; Taliotis, Constantinos; Broad, Oliver; de Moura, Gustavo; Howells, Mark

2017-04-01

Developing a set of scenarios to assess a proposed policy or future development pathways requires a certain level of information, as well as establishing the socio-economic context. As the future is difficult to predict, great care in defining the selected scenarios is needed. Even so it can be difficult to assess if the selected scenario is covering the possible solution space. Instead, this paper's methodology develops a large set of scenarios (324) in OSeMOSYS using the SAMBA 2.0 (South America Model Base) model to assess long-term electricity supply scenarios and applies a scenario-discovery statistical data mining algorithm, Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). By creating a multidimensional space, regions related to high and low cost can be identified as well as their key driver. The six key drivers are defined a priori in three (high, medium, low) or two levers (high, low): 1) Demand projected from GDP, population, urbanization and transport, 2) Fossil fuel price, 3) Climate change impact on hydropower, 4) Renewable technology learning rate, 5) Discount rate, 6) CO2 emission targets.

Efficient characterization of labeling uncertainty in closely-spaced targets tracking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Moreno Leon, Carlos; Moreno Leon, Carlos; Driessen, Hans; Mandal, Pranab K.

2016-01-01

In this paper we propose a novel solution to the labeled multi-target tracking problem. The method presented is specially effective in scenarios where the targets have once moved in close proximity. When this is the case, disregarding the labeling uncertainty present in a solution (after the targets

Crossing the Barriers: An Analysis of Land Access Barriers to Geothermal Development and Potential Improvement Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Levine, Aaron L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Young, Katherine R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-10-04

Developers have identified many non-technical barriers to geothermal power development, including access to land. Activities required for accessing land, such as environmental review and private and public leasing can take a considerable amount of time and can delay or prevent project development. This paper discusses the impacts to available geothermal resources and deployment caused by land access challenges, including tribal and cultural resources, environmentally sensitive areas, biological resources, land ownership, federal and state lease queues, and proximity to military installations. In this analysis, we identified challenges that have the potential to prevent development of identified and undiscovered hydrothermal geothermal resources. We found that an estimated 400 MW of identified geothermal resource potential and 4,000 MW of undiscovered geothermal resource potential were either unallowed for development or contained one or more significant barriers that could prevent development at the site. Potential improvement scenarios that could be employed to overcome these barriers include (1) providing continuous funding to the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) for processing geothermal leases and permit applications and (2) the creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures. The model results forecast that continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 80 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 124 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures coupled with continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 97 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 152 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The small impact on potential deployment in these improvement scenarios suggests that these 4,400 MW have other barriers to development in addition to land access. In other words, simply

Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

2008-01-01

This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation: Insights from illustrative global abatement scenarios modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gurney, Andrew; Ahammad, Helal; Ford, Melanie

2009-01-01

In this paper the Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) and MAGICC are used to simulate a number of global emission mitigation scenarios devised by the EMF 22 Transition Scenarios group in which radiative forcing goals and the architecture of developing economies' participation in hypothetical mitigation actions are varied. This paper presents a reference case of the world economy to 2100 and analyses some key regional and global results for the various global mitigation scenarios, including emission prices, emission levels, primary energy consumption and economic growth. Modelling results suggest that a transition to a low-carbon world would require a significant decarbonisation of electricity generation without necessarily cutting the electricity output in the long run. With the uptake of hybrids and non-fossil-fuel technologies, the transport sector could make an important contribution to global abatement of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, with substantial international mitigation efforts and uptake of low- and/or zero-emission technologies, the achievement of 3.7 W/m 2 and 4.5 W/m 2 radiative forcing targets by the end of the century could occur at emission prices of up to $550/t CO 2 -e. However, achieving the 2.6 W/m 2 (overshoot) radiative forcing target would require considerably higher emission prices and an immediate global mitigation action.

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios-Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mander, Sarah L.; Bows, Alice; Anderson, Kevin L.; Shackley, Simon; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ekins, Paul

2008-01-01

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target

Assessment of riverine load of contaminants to European seas under policy implementation scenarios: an example with 3 pilot substances.

Science.gov (United States)

Marinov, Dimitar; Pistocchi, Alberto; Trombetti, Marco; Bidoglio, Giovanni

2014-01-01

An evaluation of conventional emission scenarios is carried out targeting a possible impact of European Union (EU) policies on riverine loads to the European seas for 3 pilot pollutants: lindane, trifluralin, and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). The policy scenarios are investigated to the time horizon of year 2020 starting from chemical-specific reference conditions and considering different types of regulatory measures including business as usual (BAU), current trend (CT), partial implementation (PI), or complete ban (PI ban) of emissions. The scenario analyses show that the model-estimated lindane load of 745 t to European seas in 1995, based on the official emission data, would be reduced by 98.3% to approximately 12.5 t in 2005 (BAU scenario), 10 years after the start of the EU regulation of this chemical. The CT and PI ban scenarios indicate a reduction of sea loads of lindane in 2020 by 74% and 95%, respectively, when compared to the BAU estimate. For trifluralin, an annual load of approximately 61.7 t is estimated for the baseline year 2003 (BAU scenario), although the applied conservative assumptions related to pesticide use data availability in Europe. Under the PI (ban) scenario, assuming only small residual emissions of trifluralin, we estimate a sea loading of approximately 0.07 t/y. For PFOS, the total sea load from all European countries is estimated at approximately 5.8 t/y referred to 2007 (BAU scenario). Reducing the total load of PFOS below 1 t/y requires emissions to be reduced by 84%. The analysis of conventional scenarios or scenario typologies for emissions of contaminants using simple spatially explicit GIS-based models is suggested as a viable, affordable exercise that may support the assessment of implementation of policies and the identification or negotiation of emission reduction targets. © 2013 SETAC.

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2015-01-01

We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer K. Costanza

2015-03-01

Full Text Available We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

Reactive Planning of Autonomous Vehicles for Traffic Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rahul Kala

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Autonomous vehicles operate in real time traffic scenarios and aim to reach their destination from their source in the most efficient manner possible. Research in mobile robotics provides a variety of sophisticated means with which to plan the path of these vehicles. Conversely professional human drivers usually drive using instinctive means, which enables them to reach their goal almost optimally whilst still obeying all traffic laws. In this paper we propose the use of fuzzy logic for novel motion planning. The planner is generated using an evolutionary algorithm which resembles the learning stage of professional drivers. Whether to overtake or not, is a decision which affects one’s driving and the decision is made using some deliberation. We further extend the approach to perform decision making regarding overtaking for all vehicles. Further we coordinate the motion of the vehicles at a traffic crossing to avoid any potential jam or collision. Experimental results prove that by using this approach we have been able to make the vehicles move in an optimal manner in a variety of scenarios.

First Year Report: Nuclear Reaction Measurements with Radioactive Beams and Targets- Progress in Measurements of the 89Zr (n,xnyp) Reaction Cross Sections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joseph Cerny; Dennis Moltz; Sylvia La; Ed Morse; Larry Ahle; Lee Bernstein; Ken Moody; Kevin Roberts; Margaret Moody; James Powell; Jim O'Neil; Anthony Belian

2004-01-01

OAK-B135 During the underground nuclear tests in Nevada, some of the most important information was obtained by radiochemical analysis of post-test excavations. By adding small samples of refractory and rare earth elements not commonly present in the surrounding soil to the device, a detailed look could be had of the actual event. In order to properly analyze these data, several hundred cross sections are needed at a neutron energy of 14 MeV (a d-t-burn product). Although it has always been assumed that these calculations are correct, insufficient experimental data exist to corroborate this assumption. The purpose of this experiment is to measure two reaction cross sections, namely the 89 Zr (n, 2n) 88 Zr and 89 Zr (n, np) 88 Y reactions. Although the former reaction has been measured in an unpublished report ( A. A. Delucchi and W. Goishi, LANL Report LA-7841-C (1977) pp. 33-36), we intend to reduce the experimental error in this cross section. The latter cross section has not been measured. This case is much simplified because these reaction products have half-lives ∼100 days compared with ∼3 days for the target nuclide. Therefore the assay can be accomplished long after the target nuclei have decayed away

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

the CAS scenarios relies primarily on 2000 data, despite the existence of sufficiently complete statistics through to 2005. The DGEMP on the other hand used a study by the BIPE (Office for Economic Information and Forecasting) provided by the SESP, the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Spatial Planning's economic statistics and forecasting department. On the basis of the study's macro-economic projections of the French economy to 2020, the DGEMP was able to re-evaluate the prospects for activity in the industrial and tertiary sectors. In several respects (e.g. supply security, CO 2 emissions, energy efficiency), the baseline scenario proposed here is clearly not a scenario conducive to satisfying French energy policy objectives. This is not a surprising conclusion in that it implies the need to implement new policies and measures in addition to those already in place or approved. In particular, this scenario would lead to importing 66 billion cubic meters of gas (59 Mtoe) in 2020 and 78 billion cubic meters (70 Mtoe) in 2030, compared with the present 44 billion cubic meters. In addition to the resulting CO 2 emissions, the near doubling of gas imports would pose a twofold problem as to the geographic origin of the gas imported (under appropriate supply contracts) and the infrastructure (LNG terminals, gas pipelines) required to transport it. Finally, the baseline scenario is of course a long way from achieving the Community targets, whether for CO 2 emissions, projected to rise continually until 2020 and then even faster until 2030 (due to transport and electric power generation), or for the share of renewable energy in the energy mix. In that regard, the share of renewable energy in 'enlarged' final energy consumption, as it is described in the 'energy and climate change package', would grow to 13.4% in 2020 (versus 23% in the Commission's burden sharing proposal) and to 13.7% in 2030, compared with the 10.3% share observed in 2006

SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin H.; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Scenarios for cutting down energy-related climate gas emissions in Germany; Szenarien zur Minderung energiebedingten Klimagasemissionen in Deutschland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hake, J.F.; Kuckshinrichs, W. [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (STE)

1998-12-31

Developing successful strategies for cutting down climate gas emissions is an extremely complex task. This goal can be aimed at by a combination of measures. But the results of individual scenarios are no immediate clue to their practicability. The results of scenarios must always be discussed within the context of the assumptions made and, where applicable, the targets set. Consequently, their informative value is limited. The contribution of scenarios to the answering of energy-political issues is that they define possible scope for action. (orig.)

Rogeaulito: a world energy scenario modeling tool for transparent energy system thinking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Léo eBenichou

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2009-01-01

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

The opacities of 12C-12C reaction and effect of deformed target nucleus on abrasion and absorption cross sections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramadan, S.; Metawei, Z.

1995-01-01

The values of the opacities for 12 C- 12 C reaction are calculated at different incident ion kinetic energy. The exact multiple scattering series for the scattering of two heavy ions which was derived by wilson is used to calculate the abrasion and absorption cross sections of 16 O- 9 Be and 16 O- 16 O collisions, considering a harmonic oscillator matter density for both target and projectiles as spherical nuclei. The effect of including the pauli correlation is considered. The case of deformed target is also investigated. Our results are compared with other calculations as well as with the experimental results

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

Measurement of Gas and Volatile Elements Production Cross Section in a Molten Lead-Bismuth Target

CERN Multimedia

2002-01-01

MEGAPIE is a project for a 1 MW liquid PbBi spallation source, to be built at the SINQ facility at the Paul Scherrer Institut, which will be an important step in the roadmap towards the demonstration of the ADS concept and high power molten metal targets in general. In the design and construction of such a challenging project it is extremely important to evaluate the amount and type of gas and volatile elements which will be produced, for a reliable and safe operation of the experiment. Both stable (H, $^{4}$He and other noble gases) and radioactive isotopes are of interest. Currently, different design options are under consideration to deal with the gas produced during operation. \\\\ For a correct estimation of the production cross sections, a measurement with a liquid PbBi target and a proton beam of energy close to the one of MEGAPIE (575 MeV) is necessary. We would like to use the ISOLDE facility, which offers the unique opportunity via its mass spectrometric analysis of the elements present in the gas pha...

An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2004-10-01

) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

Polyethylene Glycol Modified, Cross-Linked Starch Coated Iron Oxide Nanoparticles for Enhanced Magnetic Tumor Targeting

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Adam J.; David, Allan E.; Wang, Jianxin; Galbán, Craig J.; Hill, Hannah L.; Yang, Victor C.

2010-01-01

While successful magnetic tumor targeting of iron oxide nanoparticles has been achieved in a number of models, the rapid blood clearance of magnetically suitable particles by the reticuloendothelial system (RES) limits their availability for targeting. This work aimed to develop a long-circulating magnetic iron oxide nanoparticle (MNP) platform capable of sustained tumor exposure via the circulation and, thus, enhanced magnetic tumor targeting. Aminated, cross-linked starch (DN) and aminosilane (A) coated MNPs were successfully modified with 5 kDa (A5, D5) or 20 kDa (A20, D20) polyethylene glycol (PEG) chains using simple N-Hydroxysuccinimide (NHS) chemistry and characterized. Identical PEG-weight analogues between platforms (A5 & D5, A20 & D20) were similar in size (140–190 nm) and relative PEG labeling (1.5% of surface amines – A5/D5, 0.4% – A20/D20), with all PEG-MNPs possessing magnetization properties suitable for magnetic targeting. Candidate PEG-MNPs were studied in RES simulations in vitro to predict long-circulating character. D5 and D20 performed best showing sustained size stability in cell culture medium at 37°C and 7 (D20) to 10 (D5) fold less uptake in RAW264.7 macrophages when compared to previously targeted, unmodified starch MNPs (D). Observations in vitro were validated in vivo, with D5 (7.29 hr) and D20 (11.75 hr) showing much longer half-lives than D (0.12 hr). Improved plasma stability enhanced tumor MNP exposure 100 (D5) to 150 (D20) fold as measured by plasma AUC0-∞ Sustained tumor exposure over 24 hours was visually confirmed in a 9L-glioma rat model (12 mg Fe/kg) using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Findings indicate that both D5 and D20 are promising MNP platforms for enhanced magnetic tumor targeting, warranting further study in tumor models. PMID:21176955

Ethoprophos fate on soil-water interface and effects on non-target terrestrial and aquatic biota under Mediterranean crop-based scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Leitão, Sara; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Van den Brink, Paul J; Ribeiro, Rui; José Cerejeira, M; Sousa, José Paulo

2014-05-01

The present study aimed to assess the environmental fate of the insecticide and nematicide ethoprophos in the soil-water interface following the pesticide application in simulated maize and potato crops under Mediterranean agricultural conditions, particularly of irrigation. Focus was given to the soil-water transfer pathways (leaching and runoff), to the pesticide transport in soil between pesticide application (crop row) and non-application areas (between crop rows), as well as to toxic effects of the various matrices on terrestrial and aquatic biota. A semi-field methodology mimicking a "worst-case" ethoprophos application (twice the recommended dosage for maize and potato crops: 100% concentration v/v) in agricultural field situations was used, in order to mimic a possible misuse by the farmer under realistic conditions. A rainfall was simulated under a slope of 20° for both crop-based scenarios. Soil and water samples were collected for the analysis of pesticide residues. Ecotoxicity of soil and aquatic samples was assessed by performing lethal and sublethal bioassays with organisms from different trophic levels: the collembolan Folsomia candida, the earthworm Eisenia andrei and the cladoceran Daphnia magna. Although the majority of ethoprophos sorbed to the soil application area, pesticide concentrations were detected in all water matrices illustrating pesticide transfer pathways of water contamination between environmental compartments. Leaching to groundwater proved to be an important transfer pathway of ethoprophos under both crop-based scenarios, as it resulted in high pesticide concentration in leachates from Maize (130µgL(-1)) and Potato (630µgL(-1)) crop scenarios, respectively. Ethoprophos application at the Potato crop scenario caused more toxic effects on terrestrial and aquatic biota than at the Maize scenario at the recommended dosage and lower concentrations. In both crop-based scenarios, ethoprophos moved with the irrigation water flow to the

Predictive integrated modelling for ITER scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Artaud, J.F.; Imbeaux, F.; Aniel, T.; Basiuk, V.; Eriksson, L.G.; Giruzzi, G.; Hoang, G.T.; Huysmans, G.; Joffrin, E.; Peysson, Y.; Schneider, M.; Thomas, P.

2005-01-01

The uncertainty on the prediction of ITER scenarios is evaluated. 2 transport models which have been extensively validated against the multi-machine database are used for the computation of the transport coefficients. The first model is GLF23, the second called Kiauto is a model in which the profile of dilution coefficient is a gyro Bohm-like analytical function, renormalized in order to get profiles consistent with a given global energy confinement scaling. The package of codes CRONOS is used, it gives access to the dynamics of the discharge and allows the study of interplay between heat transport, current diffusion and sources. The main motivation of this work is to study the influence of parameters such plasma current, heat, density, impurities and toroidal moment transport. We can draw the following conclusions: 1) the target Q = 10 can be obtained in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, using either the DS03 two terms scaling or the GLF23 model based on the same pedestal; 2) I p = 11.3 MA, Q = 10 can be reached only assuming a very peaked pressure profile and a low pedestal; 3) at fixed Greenwald fraction, Q increases with density peaking; 4) achieving a stationary q-profile with q > 1 requires a large non-inductive current fraction (80%) that could be provided by 20 to 40 MW of LHCD; and 5) owing to the high temperature the q-profile penetration is delayed and q = 1 is reached about 600 s in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, in the absence of active q-profile control. (A.C.)

Swedish long-term low carbon scenario - Exploratory study on opportunities and barriers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gode, Jenny; Saernholm, Erik; Zetterberg, Lars; Arnell, Jenny; Zetterberg, Therese

2010-12-15

In 2009, the Swedish government proposed a vision of reaching zero net emissions of greenhouse gases in the year 2050. However, there are few details on concrete actions after 2020. In the light of the long investment cycles associated with energy, housing, transport infrastructure and heavy industry, we believe that the society now needs to start identifying possible pathways for reaching this vision. The pathways also need to be investigated in terms of their feasibility and consequences. The aim of our study has been to develop and elaborate on one potential future energy scenario where Sweden minimises the use of fossil fuels in 2050 and to identify opportunities and barriers. The scenario we present is one of several possible scenarios and is obviously not a forecast. Our purpose is not to show a likely development, but rather to illustrate, by example, a society that is largely independent of fossil fuels and what would be required to get there. In a next step, more detailed scenarios as well as accurate impact assessments are needed. For example, the impact of high bioenergy utilisation needs to be carefully examined. The results also show several cross-sectoral measures and/or effects that need further study. There is also a need for thorough cost analyses as well as analyses of what is required to implement these measures in practice. We have analysed potential fossil fuel reductions in the sectors industry, residential/service, transports and energy conversion. For these sectors, systematic investigations have been made on measures for replacing fossil fuels, improving energy efficiency and applying new technologies and industrial processes. Our scenario is to a great extent based on existing technologies. In addition to sector specific measures, we have applied cross-sectoral measures such as using industrial surplus heat in the residential sector or forest residues for producing heat and power. Furthermore, we have assumed a system change in

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

Late decaying 2-component dark matter scenario as an explanation of the AMS-02 positron excess

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buch, Jatan; Ralegankar, Pranjal; Rentala, Vikram, E-mail: jatan_buch@brown.edu, E-mail: pranjal6@illinois.edu, E-mail: rentala@phy.iitb.ac.in [Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology - Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400076 (India)

2017-10-01

The long standing anomaly in the positron flux as measured by the PAMELA and AMS-02 experiments could potentially be explained by dark matter (DM) annihilations. This scenario typically requires a large 'boost factor' to be consistent with a thermal relic dark matter candidate produced via freeze-out. However, such an explanation is disfavored by constraints from CMB observations on energy deposition during the epoch of recombination. We discuss a scenario called late-decaying two-component dark matter (LD2DM), where the entire DM consists of two semi-degenerate species. Within this framework, the heavier species is produced as a thermal relic in the early universe and decays to the lighter species over cosmological timescales. Consequently, the lighter species becomes the DM which populates the universe today. We show that annihilation of the lighter DM species with an enhanced cross-section, produced via such a non-thermal mechanism, can explain the observed AMS-02 positron flux while avoiding CMB constraints. The observed DM relic density can be correctly reproduced as well with simple s -wave annihilation cross-sections. We demonstrate that the scenario is safe from CMB constraints on late-time energy depositions during the cosmic 'dark ages'. Interestingly, structure formation constraints force us to consider small mass splittings between the two dark matter species. We explore possible cosmological and particle physics signatures in a toy model that realizes this scenario.

Late decaying 2-component dark matter scenario as an explanation of the AMS-02 positron excess

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buch, Jatan; Ralegankar, Pranjal; Rentala, Vikram

2017-01-01

The long standing anomaly in the positron flux as measured by the PAMELA and AMS-02 experiments could potentially be explained by dark matter (DM) annihilations. This scenario typically requires a large 'boost factor' to be consistent with a thermal relic dark matter candidate produced via freeze-out. However, such an explanation is disfavored by constraints from CMB observations on energy deposition during the epoch of recombination. We discuss a scenario called late-decaying two-component dark matter (LD2DM), where the entire DM consists of two semi-degenerate species. Within this framework, the heavier species is produced as a thermal relic in the early universe and decays to the lighter species over cosmological timescales. Consequently, the lighter species becomes the DM which populates the universe today. We show that annihilation of the lighter DM species with an enhanced cross-section, produced via such a non-thermal mechanism, can explain the observed AMS-02 positron flux while avoiding CMB constraints. The observed DM relic density can be correctly reproduced as well with simple s -wave annihilation cross-sections. We demonstrate that the scenario is safe from CMB constraints on late-time energy depositions during the cosmic 'dark ages'. Interestingly, structure formation constraints force us to consider small mass splittings between the two dark matter species. We explore possible cosmological and particle physics signatures in a toy model that realizes this scenario.

Energy savings in drastic climate change policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isoard, Stephane; Wiesenthal, Tobias

2005-01-01

This paper reports a climate change policy scenario compatible with long-term sustainable objectives set at EU level (6th Environment Action Plan). By setting ambitious targets for GHG emissions reduction by 2030, this normative scenario relies on market-based instruments and flexible mechanisms. The integrated policy that is simulated (i.e. addressing energy, transport, agriculture and environmental impacts) constitutes a key outlook for the next 5-year report of the European Environment Agency (EEA). This scenario highlights what it would take to drastically curb EU GHG emissions and how much it might cost. The findings show that such a 'deep reduction' climate policy could work as a powerful catalyst for (1) substantial energy savings, and (2) promoting sustainable energy systems in the long term. The implications of this policy lever on the energy system are many-fold indeed, e.g. a substantial limitation of total energy demand or significant shifts towards energy and environment-friendly technologies on the supply side. Clear and transparent price signals, which are associated with market-based instruments, appear to be a key factor ensuring sufficient visibility for capital investment in energy efficient and environment-friendly options. Finally it is suggested that market-based policy options, which are prone to lead to win-win situations and are of particular interest from an integrated policy-making perspective, would also significantly benefit from an enhanced energy policy framework

Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

Scenario? Guilty!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kyng, Morten

1992-01-01

Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

Assessing Multiple Pathways for Achieving China’s National Emissions Reduction Target

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingyue Wang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available In order to achieve China’s target of carbon intensity emissions reduction in 2030, there is a need to identify a scientific pathway and feasible strategies. In this study, we used stochastic frontier analysis method of energy efficiency, incorporating energy structure, economic structure, human capital, capital stock and potential energy efficiency to identify an efficient pathway for achieving emissions reduction target. We set up 96 scenarios including single factor scenarios and multi-factors combination scenarios for the simulation. The effects of each scenario on achieving the carbon intensity reduction target are then evaluated. It is found that: (1 Potential energy efficiency has the greatest contribution to the carbon intensity emissions reduction target; (2 they are unlikely to reach the 2030 carbon intensity reduction target of 60% by only optimizing a single factor; (3 in order to achieve the 2030 target, several aspects have to be adjusted: the fossil fuel ratio must be lower than 80%, and its average growth rate must be decreased by 2.2%; the service sector ratio in GDP must be higher than 58.3%, while the growth rate of non-service sectors must be lowered by 2.4%; and both human capital and capital stock must achieve and maintain a stable growth rate and a 1% increase annually in energy efficiency. Finally, the specific recommendations of this research were discussed, including constantly improved energy efficiency; the upgrading of China’s industrial structure must be accelerated; emissions reduction must be done at the root of energy sources; multi-level input mechanisms in overall levels of education and training to cultivate the human capital stock must be established; investment in emerging equipment and accelerate the closure of backward production capacity to accumulate capital stock.

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

Risk, Benefit, and Cost Thresholds for Emergency Department Testing: A Cross-sectional, Scenario-based Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Meka, Arjun Prasad; Porath, Jonathan Douglas; Iyengar, Rahul; Morrow, Chelsea; Fagerlin, Angela; Meurer, William J

2017-06-01

While diagnostic testing is common in the emergency department, the value of some testing is questionable. The purpose of this study was to assess how varying levels of benefit, risk, and costs influenced an individual's desire to have diagnostic testing. A survey through Amazon Mechanical Turk presented hypothetical clinical situations: low-risk chest pain and minor traumatic brain injury. Each scenario included three given variables (benefit, risk, and cost), that was independently randomly varied over four possible values (0.1, 1, 5, and 10% for benefit and risk and $0, $100, $500, and $1,000 for the individual's personal cost for receiving the test). Benefit was defined as the probability of finding the target disease (traumatic intracranial hemorrhage or acute coronary syndrome). One-thousand unique respondents completed the survey. With an increased benefit from 0.1% to 10%, the percentage of respondents who accepted a diagnostic test went from 28.4% to 53.1%. (odds ratio [OR] = 3.42; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.57-4.54). As risk increased from 0.1% to 10%, this number decreased from 52.5% to 28.5%. (OR = 0.33; 95% CI = 0.25-0.44). Increasing cost from $0 to $1,000 had the greatest change of those accepting the test from 61.1% to 21.4%, respectively (OR = 0.15; 95% CI = 0.11-0.2). The desire for testing was strongly sensitive to the benefits, risks, and costs. Many participants wanted a test when there was no added cost, regardless of benefit or risk levels, but far fewer elected to receive the test as cost increased incrementally. This suggests that out-of-pocket costs may deter patients from undergoing diagnostic testing with low potential benefit. © 2016 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally; Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel

2014-06-01

This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken here is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.

Integrin-targeting thermally cross-linked superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles for combined cancer imaging and drug delivery

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, Mi Kyung; Park, Jinho; Jon, Sangyong [School of Life Sciences, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, 261 Chemdangwagi-ro, Gwangju 500-712 (Korea, Republic of); Jeong, Yong Yeon [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, Jeonnam National University Hwasun Hospital, 160 Ilsim-ri, Hwasun-eup, Jeonnam 519-809 (Korea, Republic of); Moon, Woo Kyung, E-mail: syjon@gist.ac.kr [Diagnostic Radiology, Seoul National University Hospital and the Institute of Radiation Medicine, Medical Research Center Seoul National University, Seoul 110-744 (Korea, Republic of)

2010-10-15

We report multifunctional nanoparticles that are capable of cancer targeting and simultaneous cancer imaging and therapy. The nanoparticles are composed of cyclic arginine-glycine-aspartic acid (cRGD) peptide ligand bioconjugated thermally cross-linked superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (TCL-SPION) that enable loading of the anticancer drug doxorubicin (Dox). The cyclic RGD-conjugated TCL-SPION (cRGD{sub T}CL-SPION) had a mean hydrodynamic size of 34 {+-} 8 nm with approximately 0.39 wt% of cyclic RGD attached to the surface of the nanoparticles. The cRGD{sub T}CL-SPION exhibited preferential binding towards target cancer cells (U87MG, integrin {alpha}{sub v{beta}3} +) when analyzed by T{sub 2}-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. When Dox was loaded onto the polymeric coating layers of cRGD{sub T}CL-SPION via ionic interaction, the resulting Dox-loaded cRGD{sub T}CL-SPION (Dox-cRGD{sub T}CL-SPION) showed much higher cytotoxicity in U87MG cells than Dox-TCL-SPION lacking cRGD (IC{sub 50} value of 0.02 {mu}M versus 0.12 {mu}M). These results suggest that Dox-cRGD{sub T}CL-SPION has potential for use as an integrin-targeted, combined imaging and therapeutic agent.

Review of scenario analyses to reduce agricultural nitrogen and phosphorus loading to the aquatic environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hashemi, Fatemeh; Olesen, Jørgen E; Dalgaard, Tommy; Børgesen, Christen D

2016-12-15

Nutrient loadings of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to aquatic environments are of increasing concern globally for managing ecosystems, drinking water supply and food production. There are often multiple sources of these nutrients in the landscape, and the different hydrological flow patterns within stream or river catchments have considerable influence on nutrient transport, transformation and retention processes that all eventually affect loadings to vulnerable aquatic environments. Therefore, in order to address options to reduce nutrient loadings, quantitative assessment of their effects in real catchments need to be undertaken. This involves setting up scenarios of the possible nutrient load reduction measures and quantifying their impacts via modelling. Over the recent two decades there has been a great increase in the use of scenario-based analyses of strategies to combat excessive nutrient loadings. Here we review 130 published papers extracted from Web of Science for 1995 to 2014 that have applied models to analyse scenarios of agricultural impacts on nutrients loadings at catchment scale. The review shows that scenario studies have been performed over a broad range of climatic conditions, with a large focus on measures targeting land cover/use and land management for reducing the source load of N and P in the landscape. Some of the studies considered how to manage the flows of nutrients, or how changes in the landscape may be used to influence both flows and transformation processes. Few studies have considered spatially targeting measures in the landscape, and such studies are more recent. Spatially differentiated options include land cover/use modification and application of different land management options based on catchments characteristics, cropping conditions and climatic conditions. Most of the studies used existing catchment models such as SWAT and INCA, and the choice of the models may also have influenced the setup of the scenarios. The use of

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan; Drouet, Laurent; Edmonds, Jae; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Havlík, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, Elke; Tavoni, Massimo

2018-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m-2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m-2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m-2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

Validation of FLUKA calculated cross-sections for radioisotope production in proton-on-target collisions at proton energies around 1 GeV

CERN Document Server

Felcini, M

2006-01-01

The production cross-sections of several radioisotopes induced by 1 GeV protons impinging on different target materials have been calculated using the FLUKA Monte Carlo and compared to measured cross-sections. The emphasis of this study is on the production of alpha and beta/gamma emitters of interest for activation evaluations at a research complex, such as the EURISOL complex, using several MW power proton driver at an energy of 1 GeV. The comparisons show that in most of the cases of interest for such evaluations, the FLUKA Monte Carlo reproduces radioisotope production cross-sections within less than a factor of two with respect to the measured values. This result implies that the FLUKA calculations are adequately accurate for proton induced activation estimates at a 1 GeV high power proton driver complex.

Exclusive {rho}{sup 0} meson cross section ratios on deuterium and hydrogen targets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Osborne, A.G.S.

2006-08-15

The HERMES experiment is a large forward angle spectrometer located at the HERA accelerator ring at DESY, Hamburg. This thesis presents the analysis of the kinematic dependencies of {rho}{sup 0} vector meson production on hydrogen and deuterium targets. The relative gluon and quark contribution to the {rho}{sup 0} production amplitude is expected to depend on the kinematical variable x{sub Bj}, and by measuring the ratio of {rho}{sup 0} electroproduction cross sections on deuterium and hydrogen from HERMES data this dependence is confirmed. This thesis describes the methods used to extract the cross section ratio from the HERMES data taken between the years 1996 and 2000 and compares the results with the theoretical predictions. Until 2005 the missing mass resolution of the HERMES spectrometer was only sufficient to allow exclusivity at the level of a data sample. The HERMES Recoil Detector, installed in early 2006, is an upgrade which will augment the HERMES spectrometer by establishing exclusivity at the event level and therefore improving the resolution to which various kinematical variables may be reconstructed. Additionally, the Recoil Detector will contribute to the overall background suppression capability of the HERMES spectrometer. These improvements will provide a strong reduction in the statistical uncertainties present in the {rho}{sup 0}-analysis and other analyses at HERMES. The Recoil Detector critically relies on its track reconstruction software to enable its capability to provide event level exclusive measurements. This tracking code is presented in detail. (orig.)

Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

2017-12-01

Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

Target-Centric Network Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mitchell, Dr. William L.; Clark, Dr. Robert M.

In Target-Centric Network Modeling: Case Studies in Analyzing Complex Intelligence Issues, authors Robert Clark and William Mitchell take an entirely new approach to teaching intelligence analysis. Unlike any other book on the market, it offers case study scenarios using actual intelligence...... reporting formats, along with a tested process that facilitates the production of a wide range of analytical products for civilian, military, and hybrid intelligence environments. Readers will learn how to perform the specific actions of problem definition modeling, target network modeling......, and collaborative sharing in the process of creating a high-quality, actionable intelligence product. The case studies reflect the complexity of twenty-first century intelligence issues by dealing with multi-layered target networks that cut across political, economic, social, technological, and military issues...

Production, separation and target preparation of {sup 171}Tm and {sup 147}Pm for neutron cross section measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heinitz, Stephan; Maugeri, Emilio A.; Schumann, Dorothea; Dressler, Rugard; Kivel, Niko [Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen (Switzerland); Guerrero, Carlos [Sevilla Univ. (Spain); Koester, Ullrich [Institut Laue-Langevin, Grenoble (France); Tessler, Moshe; Paul, Michael [Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem (Israel); Halfon, Shlomi [Soreq Nuclear Research Center, Yavne (Israel); Collaboration: nTOF Collaboration

2017-07-01

The knowledge of the neutron capture cross sections of s-process branching point isotopes represents a basic requirement for the understanding of star evolution. Since such branching point isotopes are by definition radioactive, the measurement of their cross sections from thermal to stellar energies becomes a challenging task. Considerable amounts of material have to be produced, representing a significant radioactive hazard. We report here on the production and separation of 3.5 mg {sup 171}Tm from 240 mg {sup 170}Er{sub 2}O{sub 3} and 72 μg {sup 147}Pm from 100 mg {sup 146}Nd{sub 2}O{sub 3} irradiated at the ILL high flux reactor. Thin targets were prepared with high chemical and radioisotopic purity suitable for neutron capture measurements at nTOF CERN and the SARAF-LiLiT facility.

Design and Evaluation of a Cross-Cultural Training System

Science.gov (United States)

Santarelli, Thomas; Stagl, Kevin C.

2011-01-01

Cross-cultural competency, and the underlying communication and affective skills required to develop such expertise, is becoming increasingly important for a wide variety of domains. To address this need, we developed a blended learning platform which combines virtual role-play with tutorials, assessment and feedback. A Middle-Eastern Curriculum (MEC) exemplar for cross-cultural training U.S. military personnel was developed to guide the refinement of an existing game-based training platform. To complement this curriculum, we developed scenario authoring tools to enable end-users to define training objectives, link performance measures and feedback/remediation to these objectives, and deploy experiential scenarios within a game-based virtual environment (VE). Lessons learned from the design and development of this exemplar cross-cultural competency curriculum, as well as formative evaluation results, are discussed. Initial findings suggest that the underlying training technology promotes deep levels of semantic processing of the key information of relevant cultural and communication skills.

Scenarios and innovative systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-11-01

The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

2016-01-01

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

ADEME energy transition scenarios. Summary including a macro-economic evaluation 2030 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-05-01

ADEME, the French Environment and Energy Management Agency, is a public agency reporting to the Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy and the Ministry of Higher Education and Research. In 2012 the agency drew up a long-term scenario entitled 'ADEME Energy Transition Scenarios 2030-2050'. This document presents a summary of the report. The full version can be viewed online on the ADEME web site. With this work ADEME offers a proactive energy vision for all stakeholders - experts, the general public, decision-makers, etc. - focusing on two main areas of expertise: managing energy conservation and developing renewable energy production using proven or demonstration-phase technologies. These scenarios identify a possible pathway for the energy transition in France. They are based on two time horizons and two separate methodologies. One projection, applicable from the present day, seeks to maximise potential energy savings and renewable energy production in an ambitious but realistic manner, up to 2030. The second exercise is a normative scenario that targets a fourfold reduction in greenhouse gas emissions generated in France by 2050, compared to 1990 levels. The analysis presented in this document is primarily based on an exploration of different scenarios that allow for the achievement of ambitious energy and environmental targets under technically, economically and socially feasible conditions. This analysis is supplemented by a macro-economic analysis. These projections, particularly for 2030, do not rely on radical changes in lifestyle, lower comfort levels or hypothetical major technological breakthroughs. They show that by using technologies and organisational changes that are currently within our reach, we have the means to achieve these long-term goals. The scenarios are based on assumptions of significant growth, both economic (1.8% per year) and demographic (0.4% a year). The 2050 scenario shows that with sustained growth, a

Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

2014-08-01

China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Development and application of a methodology for identifying and characterising scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Billington, D.; Bailey, L.

1998-01-01

interval along each timeline. This report presents illustrative examples of the application of the above methodology to achieve this aim. The results of risk calculations and assigned weights are plotted on a 'weight-risk diagram', which is used to judge the relative significance of the different variant scenarios in relation to the base scenario and the regulatory risk target. The application of this methodology is consistent with a staged approach to performance assessment, in which effort is focused initially on scoping calculations of conditional risk. Only those variant scenarios giving a higher conditional risk than the base scenario are subject to more detailed evaluation, including the assignment of an appropriate weight. From the limited trialling that has been undertaken, the indications are that a tractable approach, consistent with the objectives of comprehensiveness, traceability and clarity, has been achieved. (author)

A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

1992-01-01

The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

Legal Issues in Cyber Targeting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juhlin, Jonas Alastair

Imagine this scenario: Two states are in armed conflict with each other. In order to gain an advantage, one side launches a cyber-attack against the opponent’s computer network. The malicious malware paralyze the military computer network, as intended, but the malware spreads into the civilian...... system with physical damage to follow. This can happen and the natural question arises: What must be considered lawful targeting according to the international humanitarian law in cyber warfare? What steps must an attacker take to minimize the damage done to unlawful targets when conducting an offensive...... operation? How can the attacker separate military targets from civilian targets in cyber space? This paper addresses these questions and argues that a network (civilian or military) consist of several software components and that it is the individual components that is the target. If the components are used...

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

2016-01-01

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO_2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO_2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO_2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO_2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology

Measuring variability of procedure progression in proceduralized scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Yochan; Park, Jinkyun; Jung, Wondea

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► The VPP measure was developed to quantify how differently operators follow the procedures. ► Sources that cause variability of ways to follow a given procedure were identified. ► The VPP values for the scenarios are positively related to the scenario performance time. ► The VPP measure is meaningful for explaining characteristics of several PSFs. -- Abstract: Various performance shaping factors (PSFs) have been presented to explain the contributors to unsafe acts in a human failure event or predict a human error probability of new human performance. However, because most of these parameters of an HRA depend on the subjective knowledge and experience of HRA analyzers, the results of an HRA insufficiently provide unbiased standards to explain human performance variations or compare collected data with other data from different analyzers. To secure the validity of the HRA results, we propose a quantitative measure, which represents the variability of procedure progression (VPP) in proceduralized scenarios. A VPP measure shows how differently the operators follow the steps of the procedures. This paper introduces the sources of the VPP measure and relevance to PSFs. The assessment method of the VPP measure is also proposed, and the application examples are shown with a comparison of the performance time. Although more empirical studies should be conducted to reveal the relationship between the VPP measure and other PSFs, it is believed that the VPP measure provides evidence to quantitatively evaluate human performance variations and to cross-culturally compare the collected data.

Scattering of polarized electrons from polarized targets: Coincidence reactions and prescriptions for polarized half-off-shell single-nucleon cross sections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caballero, J.A.; Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA; Donnelly, T.W.; Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA; Poulis, G.I.; Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA

1993-01-01

Coincidence reactions of the type vector A( vector e, e'N)B involving the scattering of polarized electrons from polarized targets are discussed within the context of the plane-wave impulse approximation. Prescriptions are developed for polarized half-off single-nucleon cross sections; the different prescriptions are compared for typical quasi-free kinematics. Illustrative results are presented for coincidence polarized electron scattering from typical polarized nuclei. (orig.)

Learning Through Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose

level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

Spirometry in Greenland: a cross-sectional study on patients treated with medication targeting obstructive pulmonary disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsen, Lasse Overballe; Olsen, Sequssuna; Jarbøl, Dorte Ejg; Pedersen, Michael Lynge

2016-01-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is globally increasing in frequency and is expected to be the third largest cause of death by 2020. Smoking is the main risk factor of developing COPD. In Greenland, more than half of the adult population are daily smokers, and COPD may be common. International guidelines recommend the usage of spirometry as a golden standard for diagnosing COPD. The current number of spirometries performed among patients treated with medication targeting obstructive pulmonary disease in Greenland remains unexplored. To estimate the prevalence of patients aged 50 years or above treated with medication targeting obstructive pulmonary disease and the extent to which spirometry was performed among them within 2 years. An observational, cross-sectional study based on the review of data obtained from electronic medical records in Greenland was performed. The inclusion criterion was that patients must have been permanent residents aged 50 years or above who had medication targeting obstructive pulmonary disease prescribed within a period of 15 months prior to data extraction. A full review of electronic patient records was done on each of the identified users of medication targeting obstructive pulmonary disease. Information on age, gender, town and spirometry was registered for each patient within the period from October 2013 to October 2015. The prevalence of patients treated with medication targeting obstructive pulmonary disease aged 50 years or above was 7.9%. Of those, 34.8% had spirometry performed within 2 years and 50% had a forced expiratory volume (1 sec)/ forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) under 70% indicating obstructive pulmonary disease. The use of medication targeting obstructive pulmonary disease among patients over 50 years old is common in Greenland. About one third of the patients had a spirometry performed within 2 years. To further increase spirometry performance, it is recommended to explore possible barriers in health

The use of engineering design scenarios to assess student knowledge of global, societal, economic, and environmental contexts

Science.gov (United States)

McKenna, Ann F.; Hynes, Morgan M.; Johnson, Amy M.; Carberry, Adam R.

2016-07-01

Product archaeology as an educational approach asks engineering students to consider and explore the broader societal and global impacts of a product's manufacturing, distribution, use, and disposal on people, economics, and the environment. This study examined the impact of product archaeology in a project-based engineering design course on student attitudes and perceptions about engineering and abilities to extend and refine knowledge about broader contexts. Two design scenarios were created: one related to dental hygiene and one related to vaccination delivery. Design scenarios were used to (1) assess knowledge of broader contexts, and (2) test variability of student responses across different contextual situations. Results from pre- to post-surveying revealed improved student perceptions of knowledge of broader contexts. Significant differences were observed between the two design scenarios. The findings support the assumption that different design scenarios elicit consideration of different contexts and design scenarios can be constructed to target specific contextual considerations.

Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO2 price and global energy transition. A general equilibrium approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier; Smeers, Yves; Pierru, Axel

2010-01-01

The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO 2 emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO 2 price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO 2 policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO 2 emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a hard cap or a soft cap. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories - with two branches after 2020 - for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO 2 emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO 2 emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios. (author)

Inflation targeting and core inflation

OpenAIRE

Julie Smith

2005-01-01

This paper examines the interaction of core inflation and inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime. Interest in core inflation has grown because of inflation targeting. Core inflation is defined in numerous ways giving rise to many potential measures; this paper defines core inflation as the best forecaster of inflation. A cross-country study finds before the start of inflation targeting, but not after, core inflation differs between non-inflation targeters and inflation targeters. Thr...

Identifying Drug-Target Interactions with Decision Templates.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Xiao-Ying; Zhang, Shao-Wu

2018-01-01

During the development process of new drugs, identification of the drug-target interactions wins primary concerns. However, the chemical or biological experiments bear the limitation in coverage as well as the huge cost of both time and money. Based on drug similarity and target similarity, chemogenomic methods can be able to predict potential drug-target interactions (DTIs) on a large scale and have no luxurious need about target structures or ligand entries. In order to reflect the cases that the drugs having variant structures interact with common targets and the targets having dissimilar sequences interact with same drugs. In addition, though several other similarity metrics have been developed to predict DTIs, the combination of multiple similarity metrics (especially heterogeneous similarities) is too naïve to sufficiently explore the multiple similarities. In this paper, based on Gene Ontology and pathway annotation, we introduce two novel target similarity metrics to address above issues. More importantly, we propose a more effective strategy via decision template to integrate multiple classifiers designed with multiple similarity metrics. In the scenarios that predict existing targets for new drugs and predict approved drugs for new protein targets, the results on the DTI benchmark datasets show that our target similarity metrics are able to enhance the predictive accuracies in two scenarios. And the elaborate fusion strategy of multiple classifiers has better predictive power than the naïve combination of multiple similarity metrics. Compared with other two state-of-the-art approaches on the four popular benchmark datasets of binary drug-target interactions, our method achieves the best results in terms of AUC and AUPR for predicting available targets for new drugs (S2), and predicting approved drugs for new protein targets (S3).These results demonstrate that our method can effectively predict the drug-target interactions. The software package can

Evaluation of cross sections of 56Fe up to 3 GeV and integral benchmark calculation for thick target yield

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshizawa, Nobuaki; Meigo, Shin-ichiro

2001-01-01

The neutron and proton cross sections of 56 Fe were evaluated up to 3 GeV. JENDL High Energy File of 56 Fe were developed for use in transport calculation. For neutrons, the high-energy data are merged with JENDL3.3-file. Integral benchmark calculations for thick target neutron yields (TTY) for 113 MeV and 256 MeV proton bombardment of Fe targets were performed using the evaluated libraries. Calculated TTY neutron spectra were compared with experimental data. For 113 MeV, calculated TTY at 7.5 degree underestimated in the emitted neutron energy range above 10 MeV. For 256 MeV, calculated TTY well agree with experimental data except below 10 MeV. (author)

Ideal MHD Stability Prediction and Required Power for EAST Advanced Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Junjie; Li Guoqiang; Qian Jinping; Liu Zixi

2012-01-01

The Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) is the first fully superconducting tokamak with a D-shaped cross-sectional plasma presently in operation. The ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and required power for the EAST advanced tokamak (AT) scenario with negative central shear and double transport barrier (DTB) are investigated. With the equilibrium code TOQ and stability code GATO, the ideal MHD stability is analyzed. It is shown that a moderate ratio of edge transport barriers' (ETB) height to internal transport barriers' (ITBs) height is beneficial to ideal MHD stability. The normalized beta β N limit is about 2.20 (without wall) and 3.70 (with ideal wall). With the scaling law of energy confinement time, the required heating power for EAST AT scenario is calculated. The total heating power P t increases as the toroidal magnetic field B T or the normalized beta β N is increased. (magnetically confined plasma)

Ideal MHD Stability Prediction and Required Power for EAST Advanced Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Junjie; Li, Guoqiang; Qian, Jinping; Liu, Zixi

2012-11-01

The Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) is the first fully superconducting tokamak with a D-shaped cross-sectional plasma presently in operation. The ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and required power for the EAST advanced tokamak (AT) scenario with negative central shear and double transport barrier (DTB) are investigated. With the equilibrium code TOQ and stability code GATO, the ideal MHD stability is analyzed. It is shown that a moderate ratio of edge transport barriers' (ETB) height to internal transport barriers' (ITBs) height is beneficial to ideal MHD stability. The normalized beta βN limit is about 2.20 (without wall) and 3.70 (with ideal wall). With the scaling law of energy confinement time, the required heating power for EAST AT scenario is calculated. The total heating power Pt increases as the toroidal magnetic field BT or the normalized beta βN is increased.

Technology penetration and capital stock turnover. Lessons from IEA scenario analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Philibert, C. [International Energy Agency IEA, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, Paris (France)

2007-05-15

The aim of this paper is to reflect on the significant differences between the emissions reductions projections in mid-term and long-term scenarios, and to explore their policy implications. It draws mainly on two recent IEA publications: the 2006 World Energy Outlook (WEO), which contains energy and energy-related CO2 projections up to 2030, and the 2006-published Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), which considers scenarios and strategies up to 2050. The analysis focuses on a comparison of the Alternative Policy Scenario of the 2006 WEO, and the various Accelerated Technology (ACT) Scenarios in the ETP. The next section provides the necessary background on these two publications and their energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 and 2050, respectively. The third section investigates in some more depth the reasons for the large differences in the amount of emission reductions at these dates. Capital stock turnover and technology maturation lead times, in particular, are identified as primary reasons for the differences. The fourth section suggests several possible policy conclusions that can be drawn from this analysis. They include thought pieces with respect to the action required in the short-term; to the necessity of long-term signals; to the advantages and limitations of short-term targets; and to the opportunities and challenges the international community faces with respect to emission reductions in developing countries.

Manifold structure preservative for hyperspectral target detection

Science.gov (United States)

Imani, Maryam

2018-05-01

A nonparametric method termed as manifold structure preservative (MSP) is proposed in this paper for hyperspectral target detection. MSP transforms the feature space of data to maximize the separation between target and background signals. Moreover, it minimizes the reconstruction error of targets and preserves the topological structure of data in the projected feature space. MSP does not need to consider any distribution for target and background data. So, it can achieve accurate results in real scenarios due to avoiding unreliable assumptions. The proposed MSP detector is compared to several popular detectors and the experiments on a synthetic data and two real hyperspectral images indicate the superior ability of it in target detection.

Scenario-based strategizing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

2017-01-01

For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

Hexon and fiber of adenovirus type 14 and 55 are major targets of neutralizing antibody but only fiber-specific antibody contributes to cross-neutralizing activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Ying; Sun, Xikui; Ye, Xianmiao; Feng, Yupeng; Wang, Jinlin; Zheng, Xuehua; Liu, Xinglong; Yi, Changhua; Hao, Mingli; Wang, Qian; Li, Feng; Xu, Wei; Li, Liang; Li, Chufang; Zhou, Rong; Chen, Ling; Feng, Liqiang

2018-05-01

Re-emerging human adenoviruses type 14 (HAdV14) and 55 (HAdV55) represent two highly virulent adenoviruses. The neutralizing antibody (nAb) responses elicited by infection or immunization remain largely unknown. Herein, we generated hexon-chimeric HAdV14 viruses harboring each single or entire hexon hyper-variable-regions (HVR) from HAdV55, and determined the neutralizing epitopes of human and mouse nAbs. In human sera, hexon-targeting nAbs are type-specific and mainly recognize HVR2, 5, and 7. Fiber-targeting nAbs are only detectable in sera cross-neutralizing HAdV14 and HAdV55 and contribute substantially to cross-neutralization. Penton-binding antibodies, however, show no significant neutralizing activities. In mice immunized with HAdV14 or HAdV55, a single immunization mainly elicited hexon-specific nAbs, which recognized HAdV14 HVR1, 2, and 7 and HAdV55 HVR1 and 2, respectively. After a booster immunization, cross-neutralizing fiber-specific nAbs became detectable. These results indicated that hexon elicits type-specific nAbs whereas fiber induces cross-neutralizing nAbs to HAdV14 and HAdV55, which are of significance in vaccine development. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

40 Years of Shell Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-02-15

Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

2008-01-01

Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

Transition crossing in the main injector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei, J.

1990-01-01

This report summarizes the study of various longitudinal problems pertaining to the transition-energy crossing in the proposed Fermi Lab Main Injector. The theory indicates that the beam loss and bunch-area growth are mainly caused by the chromatic non-linear effect, which is enhanced by the space-charge force near transition. Computer simulation using the program TIBETAN shows that a ''γ T jump'' of about 1.5 unit within 1 ms is adequate to achieve a ''clean'' crossing in the currently proposed h=588 scenario. 19 refs., 4 figs

Scenarios for remote gas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

2009-01-01

The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

Participatory Scenario Planning for the Cienega Watershed: Embracing Uncertainty in Public Lands Management in the U.S. Southwest

Science.gov (United States)

Hartmann, H.; Morino, K.; Bodner, G.; Markstein, A.; McFarlin, S.

2013-12-01

Land managers and communities struggle to sustain natural landscapes and the benefits they provide--especially in an era of rapid and unpredictable changes being driven by shifts in climate and other drivers that are largely outside the control of local managers and residents. The Cienega Watershed Partnership (CWP) is a long-standing multi-agency partnership involved in managing lands and resources over about 700,000 acres in southeast Arizona, surrounding the Bureau of Land Management's Las Cienegas National Conservation Area. The region forms a vital wildlife corridor connecting the diverse ecosystems of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and grasslands with the Sierra Madrean and Rocky Mountain forests and woodlands. The CWP has long-standing forums and relationships for considering complex issues and novel approaches for management, including practical implementation of adaptive management, development of monitoring programs and protocols, and the use of nested objectives to adjust management targets. However, current plans have objectives and strategies based on what is known or likely to become known about natural and socio-cultural systems; they do not incorporate uncertainties related to rapid changes in climate or have well developed feedback mechanisms for routinely reconsidering climate information. Since 2011, more than 50 individuals from over 20 federal and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and private landowners have participated in scenario planning for the Cienega Watershed. Scenario planning is an important tool for (1) managing risks in the face of high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity; (2) integrating quantitative climate projections, trend and impact assessments, and local expertise to develop qualitative scenario narratives that can inform decisions even by simply provoking insights; and (3) engaging jurisdictions having different missions, objectives, and planning processes. Participants are helping to

Electromagnetic-gravitational conversion cross sections in external electromagnetic fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoang Ngoc Long; Dang Van Soa; Tuan Tran, A.

1994-09-01

The classical processes: the conversion of photons into gravitons in the static electromagnetic fields are considered by using Feynman perturbation techniques. The differential cross sections are presented for the conversion in the electric field of the flat condenser and the magnetic field of the solenoid. A numerical evaluation shows that the cross sections may have the observable value in the present technical scenario. (author). 11 refs

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

2006-12-01

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

An integrated pipeline to create and experience compelling scenarios in virtual reality

Science.gov (United States)

Springer, Jan P.; Neumann, Carsten; Reiners, Dirk; Cruz-Neira, Carolina

2011-03-01

One of the main barriers to create and use compelling scenarios in virtual reality is the complexity and time-consuming efforts for modeling, element integration, and the software development to properly display and interact with the content in the available systems. Still today, most virtual reality applications are tedious to create and they are hard-wired to the specific display and interaction system available to the developers when creating the application. Furthermore, it is not possible to alter the content or the dynamics of the content once the application has been created. We present our research on designing a software pipeline that enables the creation of compelling scenarios with a fair degree of visual and interaction complexity in a semi-automated way. Specifically, we are targeting drivable urban scenarios, ranging from large cities to sparsely populated rural areas that incorporate both static components (e. g., houses, trees) and dynamic components (e. g., people, vehicles) as well as events, such as explosions or ambient noise. Our pipeline has four basic components. First, an environment designer, where users sketch the overall layout of the scenario, and an automated method constructs the 3D environment from the information in the sketch. Second, a scenario editor used for authoring the complete scenario, incorporate the dynamic elements and events, fine tune the automatically generated environment, define the execution conditions of the scenario, and set up any data gathering that may be necessary during the execution of the scenario. Third, a run-time environment for different virtual-reality systems provides users with the interactive experience as designed with the designer and the editor. And fourth, a bi-directional monitoring system that allows for capturing and modification of information from the virtual environment. One of the interesting capabilities of our pipeline is that scenarios can be built and modified on-the-fly as they are

Exposure scenarios for workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

2007-01-01

The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

Regional climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-01-01

Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

Estimating the Contribution of Industry Structure Adjustment to the Carbon Intensity Target: A Case of Guangdong

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping Wang

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Industry structure adjustment is an effective measure to achieve the carbon intensity target of Guangdong Province. Accurately evaluating the contribution of industry structure adjustment to the carbon intensity target is helpful for the government to implement more flexible and effective policies and measures for CO2 emissions reduction. In this paper, we attempt to evaluate the contribution of industry structure adjustment to the carbon intensity target. Firstly, we predict the gross domestic product (GDP with scenario forecasting, industry structure with the Markov chain model, CO2 emissions with a novel correlation mode based on least squares support vector machine, and then we assess the contribution of industry structure adjustment to the carbon intensity target of Guangdong during the period of 2011–2015 under nine scenarios. The obtained results show, in the ideal scenario, that the economy will grow at a high speed and the industry structure will be significantly adjusted, and thus the carbon intensity in 2015 will decrease by 25.53% compared to that in 2010, which will make a 130.94% contribution to the carbon intensity target. Meanwhile, in the conservative scenario, the economy will grow at a low speed and the industry structure will be slightly adjusted, and thus the carbon intensity in 2015 will decrease by 23.89% compared to that in 2010, which will make a 122.50% contribution to the carbon intensity target.

Experimental Cross Sections for Reactions of Heavy Ions and 208Pb, 209Bi, 238U, and 248Cm Targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patin, Joshua B.

2002-01-01

The study of the reactions between heavy ions and 208 Pb, 209 Bi, 238 U, and 248 Cm targets was performed to look at the differences between the cross sections of hot and cold fusion reactions. Experimental cross sections were compared with predictions from statistical computer codes to evaluate the effectiveness of the computer code in predicting production cross sections. Hot fusion reactions were studied with the MG system, catcher foil techniques and the Berkeley Gas-filled Separator (BGS). 3n- and 4n-exit channel production cross sections were obtained for the 238 U( 18 O,xn) 256-x Fm, 238 U( 22 Ne,xn) 260-x No, and 248 Cm( 15 N,xn) 263-x Lr reactions and are similar to previous experimental results. The experimental cross sections were accurately modeled by the predictions of the HIVAP code using the Reisdorf and Schaedel parameters and are consistent with the existing systematics of 4n exit channel reaction products. Cold fusion reactions were examined using the BGS. The 208 Pb( 48 Ca,xn) 256-x No, 208 Pb( 50 Ti,xn) 258-x Rf, 208 Pb( 51 V,xn) 259-x Db, 209 Bi( 50 Ti,xn) 259-x Db, and 209 Bi( 51 V,xn) 260-x Sg reactions were studied. The experimental production cross sections are in agreement with the results observed in previous experiments. It was necessary to slightly alter the Reisdorf and Schaedel parameters for use in the HIVAP code in order to more accurately model the experimental data. The cold fusion experimental results are in agreement with current 1n- and 2n-exit channel systematics

Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Caille

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

Ten factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks for health information technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Russ, Alissa L; Saleem, Jason J

2018-02-01

The quality of usability testing is highly dependent upon the associated usability scenarios. To promote usability testing as part of electronic health record (EHR) certification, the Office of the National Coordinator (ONC) for Health Information Technology requires that vendors test specific capabilities of EHRs with clinical end-users and report their usability testing process - including the test scenarios used - along with the results. The ONC outlines basic expectations for usability testing, but there is little guidance in usability texts or scientific literature on how to develop usability scenarios for healthcare applications. The objective of this article is to outline key factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks to evaluate computer-interface based health information technologies. To achieve this goal, we draw upon a decade of our experience conducting usability tests with a variety of healthcare applications and a wide range of end-users, to include healthcare professionals as well as patients. We discuss 10 key factors that influence scenario development: objectives of usability testing; roles of end-user(s); target performance goals; evaluation time constraints; clinical focus; fidelity; scenario-related bias and confounders; embedded probes; minimize risks to end-users; and healthcare related outcome measures. For each factor, we present an illustrative example. This article is intended to aid usability researchers and practitioners in their efforts to advance health information technologies. The article provides broad guidance on usability scenario development and can be applied to a wide range of clinical information systems and applications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Triple-differential cross sections for target ionization with simultaneous projectile detachment in 200-keV H-+He collisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferger, T.; Najjari, B.; Moshammer, R.; Ullrich, J.; Schulz, M.; Fischer, D.

2007-01-01

We have performed a kinematically complete experiment for target ionization with simultaneous projectile detachment (TIPD) in 200-keV H - +He collisions. From the data we extracted triple-differential cross sections (TDCSs) for each electron separately. These TDCSs closely resemble corresponding data for single ionization by charged-particle impact. Surprisingly, the contributions from higher-order processes to TIPD, proceeding through two independent interactions of each electron with the core of the respective other collision partner, are found to be somewhat larger than the first-order process proceeding through the electron-electron interaction

Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

2002-01-01

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

2009-01-01

Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

Fission cross section calculations for 209Bi target nucleus based on fission reaction models in high energy regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaplan Abdullah

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Implementation of projects of new generation nuclear power plants requires the solving of material science and technological issues in developing of reactor materials. Melts of heavy metals (Pb, Bi and Pb-Bi due to their nuclear and thermophysical properties, are the candidate coolants for fast reactors and accelerator-driven systems (ADS. In this study, α, γ, p, n and 3He induced fission cross section calculations for 209Bi target nucleus at high-energy regions for (α,f, (γ,f, (p,f, (n,f and (3He,f reactions have been investigated using different fission reaction models. Mamdouh Table, Sierk, Rotating Liquid Drop and Fission Path models of theoretical fission barriers of TALYS 1.6 code have been used for the fission cross section calculations. The calculated results have been compared with the experimental data taken from the EXFOR database. TALYS 1.6 Sierk model calculations exhibit generally good agreement with the experimental measurements for all reactions used in this study.

Energy scenarios for New Zealand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

1977-10-15

Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

Costs and Benefits to EU Member States of 2030 Climate and Energy Targets - February 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-01-01

Costs and Benefits to EU Member States of 2030 Climate and Energy Targets is based on analyses using the POLES-Enerdata model and presents an overview of the main European energy and climate policies: reduction of CO_2 emissions, development of renewable energies, and promotion of energy efficiency. The report looks forward to 2030 and beyond to evaluate possible targets and the goal of maintaining global temperature rise to 2 deg. C. This publication was produced by Enerdata's Global Energy Forecasting team, including the modelling and scenario analysis, within the framework of an external service contract to the UK's Department of Energy and Climate Change. This project looks ahead to 2030. To do this, scenarios were developed using the POLES-Enerdata model, a world energy-economy model that fully describes the energy system and associated GHG emissions. This report analyses the costs and benefits to all EU Member States under different scenarios of the level and type of EU targets defined within a 2030 climate and energy framework. Scenarios include progressively more stringent GHG targets in 2030 (40%, 50%, and 60% reductions compared to 1990), alternative assumptions on access to international credits (0%, 5% and 10% of 1990 emissions), the addition of RES burden shares by Member State, accelerated CCS commercial availability and reduced renewables learning rates. These are the sensitivities commissioned as part of this report; however, they are not a comprehensive range covering all possible outcomes that could arise in reality. What are the costs and benefits to Member States under different scenarios of the level and type of EU targets? The analysis assesses the benefits of different scenarios to improved air quality and health, diversity of energy supply, and reduced costs of meeting longer term emission reduction targets (notably the EU's commitment to reduce emissions by 80-95% by 2050). Relying on more low-carbon, domestic, or diversified sources of

Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

2011-01-01

A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

2011-07-15

There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

A PDE Pricing Framework for Cross-Currency Interest Rate Derivatives with Target Redemption Features

Science.gov (United States)

Christara, Christina C.; Minh Dang, Duy; Jackson, Kenneth R.; Lakhany, Asif

2010-09-01

We propose a general framework for efficient pricing via a partial differential equation (PDE) approach for exotic cross-currency interest rate (IR) derivatives, with strong emphasis on long-dated foreign exchange (FX) IR hybrids, namely Power Reverse Dual Currency (PRDC) swaps with a FX Target Redemption (FX-TARN) provision. The FX-TARN provision provides a cap on the FX-linked PRDC coupon amounts, and once the accumulated coupon amount reaches this cap, the underlying PRDC swap terminates. Our PDE pricing framework is based on an auxiliary state variable to keep track of the total accumulated PRDC coupon amount. Finite differences on uniform grids and the Alternating Direction Implicit (ADI) method are used for the spatial and time discretizations, respectively, of the model-dependent PDE corresponding to each discretized value of the auxiliary variable. Numerical examples illustrating the convergence properties of the numerical methods are provided.

Numerical study of neutron beam divergence in a beam-fusion scenario employing laser driven ions

Science.gov (United States)

Alejo, A.; Green, A.; Ahmed, H.; Robinson, A. P. L.; Cerchez, M.; Clarke, R.; Doria, D.; Dorkings, S.; Fernandez, J.; McKenna, P.; Mirfayzi, S. R.; Naughton, K.; Neely, D.; Norreys, P.; Peth, C.; Powell, H.; Ruiz, J. A.; Swain, J.; Willi, O.; Borghesi, M.; Kar, S.

2016-09-01

The most established route to create a laser-based neutron source is by employing laser accelerated, low atomic-number ions in fusion reactions. In addition to the high reaction cross-sections at moderate energies of the projectile ions, the anisotropy in neutron emission is another important feature of beam-fusion reactions. Using a simple numerical model based on neutron generation in a pitcher-catcher scenario, anisotropy in neutron emission was studied for the deuterium-deuterium fusion reaction. Simulation results are consistent with the narrow-divergence (∼ 70 ° full width at half maximum) neutron beam recently served in an experiment employing multi-MeV deuteron beams of narrow divergence (up to 30° FWHM, depending on the ion energy) accelerated by a sub-petawatt laser pulse from thin deuterated plastic foils via the Target Normal Sheath Acceleration mechanism. By varying the input ion beam parameters, simulations show that a further improvement in the neutron beam directionality (i.e. reduction in the beam divergence) can be obtained by increasing the projectile ion beam temperature and cut-off energy, as expected from interactions employing higher power lasers at upcoming facilities.

Real-Time Emulation of Nonstationary Channels in Safety-Relevant Vehicular Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Golsa Ghiaasi

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes and discusses the architecture for a real-time vehicular channel emulator capable of reproducing the input/output behavior of nonstationary time-variant radio propagation channels in safety-relevant vehicular scenarios. The vehicular channel emulator architecture aims at a hardware implementation which requires minimal hardware complexity for emulating channels with the varying delay-Doppler characteristics of safety-relevant vehicular scenarios. The varying delay-Doppler characteristics require real-time updates to the multipath propagation model for each local stationarity region. The vehicular channel emulator is used for benchmarking the packet error performance of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS vehicular IEEE 802.11p modems and a fully software-defined radio-based IEEE 802.11p modem stack. The packet error ratio (PER estimated from temporal averaging over a single virtual drive and the packet error probability (PEP estimated from ensemble averaging over repeated virtual drives are evaluated and compared for the same vehicular scenario. The proposed architecture is realized as a virtual instrument on National Instruments™ LabVIEW. The National Instrument universal software radio peripheral with reconfigurable input-output (USRP-Rio 2953R is used as the software-defined radio platform for implementation; however, the results and considerations reported are of general purpose and can be applied to other platforms. Finally, we discuss the PER performance of the modem for two categories of vehicular channel models: a vehicular nonstationary channel model derived for urban single lane street crossing scenario of the DRIVEWAY’09 measurement campaign and the stationary ETSI models.

Cross-modal links among vision, audition, and touch in complex environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferris, Thomas K; Sarter, Nadine B

2008-02-01

This study sought to determine whether performance effects of cross-modal spatial links that were observed in earlier laboratory studies scale to more complex environments and need to be considered in multimodal interface design. It also revisits the unresolved issue of cross-modal cuing asymmetries. Previous laboratory studies employing simple cues, tasks, and/or targets have demonstrated that the efficiency of processing visual, auditory, and tactile stimuli is affected by the modality, lateralization, and timing of surrounding cues. Very few studies have investigated these cross-modal constraints in the context of more complex environments to determine whether they scale and how complexity affects the nature of cross-modal cuing asymmetries. Amicroworld simulation of battlefield operations with a complex task set and meaningful visual, auditory, and tactile stimuli was used to investigate cuing effects for all cross-modal pairings. Significant asymmetric performance effects of cross-modal spatial links were observed. Auditory cues shortened response latencies for collocated visual targets but visual cues did not do the same for collocated auditory targets. Responses to contralateral (rather than ipsilateral) targets were faster for tactually cued auditory targets and each visual-tactile cue-target combination, suggesting an inhibition-of-return effect. The spatial relationships between multimodal cues and targets significantly affect target response times in complex environments. The performance effects of cross-modal links and the observed cross-modal cuing asymmetries need to be examined in more detail and considered in future interface design. The findings from this study have implications for the design of multimodal and adaptive interfaces and for supporting attention management in complex, data-rich domains.

Space-time scenarios of wind power generation produced using a Gaussian copula with parametrized precision matrix

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tastu, J.; Pinson, P.; Madsen, Henrik

2013-09-01

The emphasis in this work is placed on generating space-time trajectories (also referred to as scenarios) of wind power generation. This calls for prediction of multivariate densities describing wind power generation at a number of distributed locations and for a number of successive lead times. A modelling approach taking advantage of sparsity of precision matrices is introduced for the description of the underlying space-time dependence structure. The proposed parametrization of the dependence structure accounts for such important process characteristics as non-constant conditional precisions and direction-dependent cross-correlations. Accounting for the space-time effects is shown to be crucial for generating high quality scenarios. (Author)

ARAMIS project: A comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cecile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

2006-01-01

In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term 'major accidents' must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called 'risk matrix', crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage

Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Lene

2004-01-01

design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

Mars base buildup scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blacic, J.D.

1985-01-01

Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

Cross sections of electron excitation out of metastable helium levels with a fast metastable target product produced via charge exchange

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lagus, M.E.; Boffard, J.B.; Anderson, L.W.; Lin, C.C.

1996-01-01

Absolute direct cross sections for electron excitation out of the 2 3 S level and into the 3 3 D, 4 3 D, and 3 3 S levels of the helium atom from threshold to 500 eV and into the 3 3 P level over a more limited energy range have been measured using a fast metastable atomic beam target. We produce the metastable atoms via near-resonant charge exchange between a 1.6-keV He + ion beam and Cs vapor. Because this reaction is highly nonresonant with the ground state of helium, the charge-transfer process yields a primarily metastable beam. We use a thermal detector which we calibrate with ions to measure absolutely the neutral beam flux. The atomic beam is crossed by an electron beam, and we collect the resulting fluorescence at right angles to both the electron and atomic beams. We obtain the cross sections for excitation out of the 2 3 S level into the various excited levels by monitoring the emission out of the excited level of interest. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society

From scenarios to components

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fahland, D.

2010-01-01

Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

Sensor Networks for Optimal Target Localization with Bearings-Only Measurements in Constrained Three-Dimensional Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joaquin Aranda

2013-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we address the problem of determining the optimal geometric configuration of an acoustic sensor network that will maximize the angle-related information available for underwater target positioning. In the set-up adopted, a set of autonomous vehicles carries a network of acoustic units that measure the elevation and azimuth angles between a target and each of the receivers on board the vehicles. It is assumed that the angle measurements are corrupted by white Gaussian noise, the variance of which is distance-dependent. Using tools from estimation theory, the problem is converted into that of minimizing, by proper choice of the sensor positions, the trace of the inverse of the Fisher Information Matrix (also called the Cramer-Rao Bound matrix to determine the sensor configuration that yields the minimum possible covariance of any unbiased target estimator. It is shown that the optimal configuration of the sensors depends explicitly on the intensity of the measurement noise, the constraints imposed on the sensor configuration, the target depth and the probabilistic distribution that defines the prior uncertainty in the target position. Simulation examples illustrate the key results derived.

Sensor networks for optimal target localization with bearings-only measurements in constrained three-dimensional scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno-Salinas, David; Pascoal, Antonio; Aranda, Joaquin

2013-08-12

In this paper, we address the problem of determining the optimal geometric configuration of an acoustic sensor network that will maximize the angle-related information available for underwater target positioning. In the set-up adopted, a set of autonomous vehicles carries a network of acoustic units that measure the elevation and azimuth angles between a target and each of the receivers on board the vehicles. It is assumed that the angle measurements are corrupted by white Gaussian noise, the variance of which is distance-dependent. Using tools from estimation theory, the problem is converted into that of minimizing, by proper choice of the sensor positions, the trace of the inverse of the Fisher Information Matrix (also called the Cramer-Rao Bound matrix) to determine the sensor configuration that yields the minimum possible covariance of any unbiased target estimator. It is shown that the optimal configuration of the sensors depends explicitly on the intensity of the measurement noise, the constraints imposed on the sensor configuration, the target depth and the probabilistic distribution that defines the prior uncertainty in the target position. Simulation examples illustrate the key results derived.

Projection of Heat Waves over China under Different Global Warming Targets

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Xiaojun; Luo, Yong; Huang, Jianbin; Zhao, Zongci

2015-04-01

Global warming targets, which are determined in terms of global mean temperature increases relative to pre-industrial temperature levels, have been one of the heated issues recently. And the climate change (especially climate extremes) and its impacts under different targets have been paid extensive concerns. In this study, evaluation and projection of heat waves in China were carried out by five CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) with a 0.5°×0.5° horizontal resolution which were derived from EU WATCH project. A new daily observed gridded dataset CN05.1 (0.5°×0.5°) was also used to evaluate the GCMs. And four indices (heat waves frequency, longest heat waves duration, heat waves days and high temperature days) were adopted to analyze the heat waves. Compared with the observations, the five GCMs and its Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) have a remarkable capacity of reproducing the spatial and temporal characteristic of heat waves. The time correlation coefficients between MME and the observation results can all reach 0.05 significant levels. Based on the projection data of five GCMs, both the median year of crossing 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C, 4.5°C and 5°C global warming targets and the corresponding climate change over China were analyzed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results show that when the global mean surface air temperature rise to different targets with respect to the pre-industrial times (1861-1880), the frequency and intensity of heat waves will increase dramatically. To take the high emission scenario RCP8.5 as an example, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming rate over China is stronger than that over the globe, the temperature rise(median year) over China projected by MME are 1.77°C(2025), 2.63°C(2039), 3.39°C(2050), 3.97°C(2060), 4.82°C(2070), 5.47°C(2079) and 6.2°C(2089) under 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C and 4.5°C global warming targets, respectively. With the increase of the global

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-15

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-01

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

Cross-Situational Learning with Bayesian Generative Models for Multimodal Category and Word Learning in Robots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akira Taniguchi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a Bayesian generative model that can form multiple categories based on each sensory-channel and can associate words with any of the four sensory-channels (action, position, object, and color. This paper focuses on cross-situational learning using the co-occurrence between words and information of sensory-channels in complex situations rather than conventional situations of cross-situational learning. We conducted a learning scenario using a simulator and a real humanoid iCub robot. In the scenario, a human tutor provided a sentence that describes an object of visual attention and an accompanying action to the robot. The scenario was set as follows: the number of words per sensory-channel was three or four, and the number of trials for learning was 20 and 40 for the simulator and 25 and 40 for the real robot. The experimental results showed that the proposed method was able to estimate the multiple categorizations and to learn the relationships between multiple sensory-channels and words accurately. In addition, we conducted an action generation task and an action description task based on word meanings learned in the cross-situational learning scenario. The experimental results showed that the robot could successfully use the word meanings learned by using the proposed method.

SYSTEMS SAFETY ANALYSIS FOR FIRE EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ECRB CROSS DRIFT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

R. J. Garrett

2001-01-01

The purpose of this analysis is to systematically identify and evaluate fire hazards related to the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP) Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block (ECRB) East-West Cross Drift (commonly referred to as the ECRB Cross-Drift). This analysis builds upon prior Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) System Safety Analyses and incorporates Topopah Springs (TS) Main Drift fire scenarios and ECRB Cross-Drift fire scenarios. Accident scenarios involving the fires in the Main Drift and the ECRB Cross-Drift were previously evaluated in ''Topopah Springs Main Drift System Safety Analysis'' (CRWMS M and O 1995) and the ''Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project East-West Drift System Safety Analysis'' (CRWMS M and O 1998). In addition to listing required mitigation/control features, this analysis identifies the potential need for procedures and training as part of defense-in-depth mitigation/control features. The inclusion of this information in the System Safety Analysis (SSA) is intended to assist the organization(s) (e.g., Construction, Environmental Safety and Health, Design) responsible for these aspects of the ECRB Cross-Drift in developing mitigation/control features for fire events, including Emergency Refuge Station(s). This SSA was prepared, in part, in response to Condition/Issue Identification and Reporting/Resolution System (CIRS) item 1966. The SSA is an integral part of the systems engineering process, whereby safety is considered during planning, design, testing, and construction. A largely qualitative approach is used which incorporates operating experiences and recommendations from vendors, the constructor and the operating contractor. The risk assessment in this analysis characterizes the scenarios associated with fires in terms of relative risk and includes recommendations for mitigating all identified hazards. The priority for recommending and implementing mitigation control features is: (1) Incorporate

Scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

2015-01-01

We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

Multifractal detrended Cross Correlation Analysis of Foreign Exchange and SENSEX fluctuation in Indian perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Dutta, Srimonti; Ghosh, Dipak; Chatterjee, Sucharita

2016-12-01

The manuscript studies autocorrelation and cross correlation of SENSEX fluctuations and Forex Exchange Rate in respect to Indian scenario. Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) and multifractal detrended cross correlation analysis (MFDXA) were employed to study the correlation between the two series. It was observed that the two series are strongly cross correlated. The change of degree of cross correlation with time was studied and the results are interpreted qualitatively.

A compact fast-neutron producing target for high resolution cross section measurements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Flaska, M.

2006-01-01

A proper knowledge of neutron cross sections is very important for the operation safety of various nuclear facilities. Reducing uncertainties in the neutron cross sections can lead to an enhanced safety of present and future nuclear power systems. Accurate neutron cross sections also play a relevant

Cross section data for ionization of important cyanides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaur, Jaspreet; Antony, Bobby

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Multi centre spherical complex optical potential formalism used to find the CS. • Effective method (CSP-ic) to derive ionization contribution from inelastic CS. • Result shows excellent accord with previous results and consistent behaviour. • Maiden attempt to find CS for many cyanide molecules. • Strong correlation observed between peak of ionization with target properties. - Abstract: This article presents cross section calculations for interactions of important cyanides with electrons possessing energies beginning from ionization threshold of the target molecule to 5 keV. These data are pursued to meet the ever increasing demand for cross sections by the relevant atomic and molecular community for modelling astrophysical, atmospheric and technological domains. The calculations have been executed using an amalgam of multi centre spherical complex optical potential (MSCOP) formalism and complex scattering potential-ionization contribution (CSP-ic) method. Cross sections are compared with experimental and theoretical data wherever available. Strong correlations are observed for the cross sections which affirms consistent and reliable cross sections. Isomeric effect has been interpreted using variation of cross section with structure and target properties. Our cross sections will be tabulated in atomic collision database for use in modelling various statistical and dynamical quantities.

Cross section data for ionization of important cyanides

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaur, Jaspreet; Antony, Bobby, E-mail: bka.ism@gmail.com

2015-11-15

Highlights: • Multi centre spherical complex optical potential formalism used to find the CS. • Effective method (CSP-ic) to derive ionization contribution from inelastic CS. • Result shows excellent accord with previous results and consistent behaviour. • Maiden attempt to find CS for many cyanide molecules. • Strong correlation observed between peak of ionization with target properties. - Abstract: This article presents cross section calculations for interactions of important cyanides with electrons possessing energies beginning from ionization threshold of the target molecule to 5 keV. These data are pursued to meet the ever increasing demand for cross sections by the relevant atomic and molecular community for modelling astrophysical, atmospheric and technological domains. The calculations have been executed using an amalgam of multi centre spherical complex optical potential (MSCOP) formalism and complex scattering potential-ionization contribution (CSP-ic) method. Cross sections are compared with experimental and theoretical data wherever available. Strong correlations are observed for the cross sections which affirms consistent and reliable cross sections. Isomeric effect has been interpreted using variation of cross section with structure and target properties. Our cross sections will be tabulated in atomic collision database for use in modelling various statistical and dynamical quantities.

SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Lourenço Junior

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

Psychological Differences toward Pedestrian Red Light Crossing between University Students and Their Peers.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qinghui Suo

Full Text Available Based on our site investigation conducted in 2013, we found that the pedestrian red light crossing at the midblock connecting the campus of Southwest University and living area was low, where most of pedestrians are university students and staff. This paper reports a supplementary work applying the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB to identify any psychological differences toward pedestrian red light crossing between university students and their peers. Three social groups participated in the investigation. The first group is the university students in Grade one (Group 1, the other two groups are their previous senior middle school classmates who are now working full time (Group 2 or who are now out of work and school (Group 3. The statistical results indicated The TPB components accounted for 42.9%, 55.3% and 55.4% of the variance of red signal crossing intention for Group 1, Group 2 and Group 3 in the depicted road crossing scenario. The data also showed that there are obvious differences among the participants' responses to "refrain from crossing" between university students and others, and the subsequent regression analysis revealed the ability to "refrain from crossing" played the most important role in the intention of red light crossing in the depicted scenario.

Audio Quality Assurance : An Application of Cross Correlation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jurik, Bolette Ammitzbøll; Nielsen, Jesper Asbjørn Sindahl

2012-01-01

We describe algorithms for automated quality assurance on content of audio files in context of preservation actions and access. The algorithms use cross correlation to compare the sound waves. They are used to do overlap analysis in an access scenario, where preserved radio broadcasts are used in...

The negaWatt 2011 scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-03-01

This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

Cross sections of the reaction Pa-231(d,3n)U-230 for the production of U-230/Th-226 for targeted alpha therapy

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Morgenstern, A.; Lebeda, Ondřej; Štursa, Jan; Capote, R.; Sin, M.; Bruchertseifer, F.; Zielinska, B.; Apostolidis, C.

2009-01-01

Roč. 80, č. 5 (2009), 054612/1-054612/6 ISSN 0556-2813 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10480505 Keywords : Pa-231 * U-230 * Th-226 * reaction cross section * targeted alpha therapy Subject RIV: BG - Nuclear, Atomic and Molecular Physics, Colliders Impact factor: 3.477, year: 2009

Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

2015-01-01

This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

Cross sections for atmospheric corrections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, J.P.; Casse, M.; Westergaard, N.

1975-01-01

A set of cross sections for spallation of relativistic nuclei is proposed based on (i) the best available proton cross sections, (ii) an extrapolation to heavier nuclei of the dependence on the number of nucleons lost of the 'target factor' observed for C 12 and O 16 by Lindstrom et al. (1975), in analogy with Rudstam's formalism, and (iii) on a normalization of all cross sections to the total cross sections for production of fragments with Asub(f) >= 6. The obtained cross sections for peripheral interactions are not inconsistent with simple geometrical considerations. (orig.) [de

Radiation damage for the spallation target of ADS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fan Sheng; Ye Yanlin; Xu Chuncheng; Chen Tao; Sobolevsky, N.M.

2000-01-01

By using SHIELD codes system, the authors investigate the radiation damage, such as radiation damage cross section, displacement atom cross section and the rate of displacement atom, gas production cross section, the rate of gas production and the ratio, R, of the helium and displacement production rates in target, container window and spallation neutron source materials as W and Pb induced from intermediate energy proton and neutron incident. And the study of radiation damage in the thick Pb target with long 60 cm, radius 20 cm is presented

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

2016-01-01

Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vanessa M Adams

Full Text Available Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20% in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not. We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100% that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario

Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition: A general equilibrium approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.durand@uclouvain.b [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Pierru, Axel, E-mail: axel.pierru@ifp.f [IFP, Economics Department, 232 Avenue Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); Smeers, Yves, E-mail: yves.smeers@uclouvain.ac.b [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

2010-09-15

The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO{sub 2} emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO{sub 2} policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a 'hard cap' or a 'soft cap'. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories-with two branches after 2020-for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO{sub 2} emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios.

Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition. A general equilibrium approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier; Smeers, Yves [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Pierru, Axel [IFP, Economics Department, 232 Avenue Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France)

2010-09-15

The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO{sub 2} emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO{sub 2} policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a hard cap or a soft cap. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories - with two branches after 2020 - for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO{sub 2} emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios. (author)

The GEO-3 Scenarios 2002-2032. Quantification and Analysis of Environmental Impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bakkes, J.; Potting, J.; Kemp-Benedict, E.; Raskin, P.; Masui, T.; Rana, A.; Nellemann, C.; Rothman, D.

2004-01-01

The four contrasting visions of the world's next three decades as presented in the third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) have many implications for policy - from hunger to climate change and from freshwater issues to biodiversity. The four scenarios analysed are Markets First, Policy First, Security First, Sustainability First. Presenting a deeper analysis than the original GEO-3 report, this Technical Report quantifies the impacts of the scenarios for all 19 GEO 'sub-regions', such as Eastern Africa and Central Europe. Regional impacts are discussed in the context of sustainable development. The report summary compares the impacts of the four scenarios across regions - and for the world as a whole - in the light of internationally agreed targets including those in the Millennium Declaration where applicable. It provides an account of the analytical methods, key assumptions, models and other tools, along with the approaches used in the analyses. Based on the methods and results, the report looks back on the process of producing the forward-looking analysis for GEO-3. Were all analytical centres on the same track? Did the approach adopted for GEO-3 contribute to the overall GEO objective of strengthening global-regional involvement and linkages?

Double ionization of the hydrogen sulfide molecule by electron impact: Influence of the target orientation on multiple differential cross sections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Imadouchene, N. [Laboratoire de Mécanique, Structures et Energétique Université Mouloud Mammeri de Tizi-Ouzou, B.P. 17, Tizi-Ouzou 15000 (Algeria); Aouchiche, H., E-mail: h_aouchiche@yahoo.fr [Laboratoire de Mécanique, Structures et Energétique Université Mouloud Mammeri de Tizi-Ouzou, B.P. 17, Tizi-Ouzou 15000 (Algeria); Champion, C. [Centre d’Etudes Nucléaires de Bordeaux Gradignan, Université Bordeaux, CNRS/IN2P3, Boîte Postale 120, Gradignan 33175 (France)

2016-07-15

Highlights: • The double ionization of the H{sub 2}S molecule is here theoretically studied. • The orientation dependence of the differential cross sections is scrutinized. • The specific double ionizing mechanisms are clearly identified. - Abstract: Multiple differential cross sections of double ionization of hydrogen sulfide molecule impacted by electrons are here investigated within the first Born approximation. In the initial state, the incident electron is represented by a plane wave function whereas the target is described by means of a single-center molecular wave function. In the final state, the two ejected electrons are described by Coulomb wave functions coupled by the Gamow factor, whereas the scattered electron is described by a plane wave. In this work, we analyze the role played by the molecular target orientation in the double ionization of the four outermost orbitals, namely 2b{sub 1}, 5a{sub 1}, 2b{sub 2} and 4a{sub 1} in considering the particular case of two electrons ejected from the same orbital. The contribution of each final state to the double ionization process is studied in terms of shape and magnitude for specific molecular orientations and for each molecular orbital we identified the mechanisms involved in the double ionization process, namely, the Shake-Off and the Two-Step 1.

Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

2000-01-01

The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

2017-01-01

existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

Absolute cross-section measurements of inner-shell ionization

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, Hans; Tobehn, Ingo; Ebel, Frank; Hippler, Rainer

1994-12-01

Cross section ratios for K- and L-shell ionization of thin silver and gold targets by positron and electron impact have been determined at projectile energies of 30 70 keV. The experimental results are confirmed by calculations in plane wave Born approximation (PWBA) which include an electron exchange term and account for the deceleration or acceleration of the incident projectile in the nuclear field of the target atom. We report first absolute cross sections for K- and L-shell ionization of silver and gold targets by lepton impact in the threshold region. We have measured the corresponding cross sections for electron (e-) impact with an electron gun and the same experimental set-up.

Efficient renewable energy scenarios study for Victoria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Armstrong, Graham

1991-01-01

This study examines the possible evolution of Victorian energy markets over the 1998-2030 period from technical, economic and environmental perspectives. The focus is on the technical and economic potential over the study period for renewable energy and energy efficiency to increase their share of energy markets, through their economic competitiveness with the non-renewables of oil, gas and fossil fulled electricity. The study identifies a range of energy options that have a lower impact on carbon dioxide emissions that current projections for the Victorian energy sector, together with the savings in energy, dollars and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition the macroeconomic implications of the energy paths are estimated. Specifically it examines a scenario (R-efficient renewable) where energy efficiency and renewable energy sources realise their estimated economic potential to displace non-renewable energy over the 1988-2030 period. In addition, a scenario (T-Toronto) is examined where energy markets are pushed somewhat harder, but again on an economic basis, so that what is called the Toronto target of reducing 1988 carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 is attained. It is concluded that over the next forty years there is substantial economic potential in Victoria for significant gains from energy efficiency in all sectors - residential, commercial, industrial and transport - and contributions from renewable energy both in those sectors and in electricity generations. 7 figs., 5 tabs

Scenarios for the risk of hunger in the twenty-first century using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-01-01

Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are being developed internationally for cross-sectoral assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. These are five scenarios that include both qualitative and quantitative information for mitigation and adaptation challenges to climate change. In this study, we quantified scenarios for the risk of hunger in the 21st century using SSPs, and clarified elements that influence future hunger risk. There were two primary findings: (1) risk of hunger in the 21st-century greatly differed among five SSPs; and (2) population growth, improvement in the equality of food distribution within a country, and increases in food consumption mainly driven by income growth greatly influenced future hunger risk and were important elements in its long-term assessment. (letter)

Virtual screening applications: a study of ligand-based methods and different structure representations in four different scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Hristozov, Dimitar P; Oprea, Tudor I; Gasteiger, Johann

2007-01-01

Four different ligand-based virtual screening scenarios are studied: (1) prioritizing compounds for subsequent high-throughput screening (HTS); (2) selecting a predefined (small) number of potentially active compounds from a large chemical database; (3) assessing the probability that a given structure will exhibit a given activity; (4) selecting the most active structure(s) for a biological assay. Each of the four scenarios is exemplified by performing retrospective ligand-based virtual screening for eight different biological targets using two large databases--MDDR and WOMBAT. A comparison between the chemical spaces covered by these two databases is presented. The performance of two techniques for ligand--based virtual screening--similarity search with subsequent data fusion (SSDF) and novelty detection with Self-Organizing Maps (ndSOM) is investigated. Three different structure representations--2,048-dimensional Daylight fingerprints, topological autocorrelation weighted by atomic physicochemical properties (sigma electronegativity, polarizability, partial charge, and identity) and radial distribution functions weighted by the same atomic physicochemical properties--are compared. Both methods were found applicable in scenario one. The similarity search was found to perform slightly better in scenario two while the SOM novelty detection is preferred in scenario three. No method/descriptor combination achieved significant success in scenario four.

Feasible climate targets. The roles of economic growth, coalition development and expectations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Richels, Richard G.; Rutherford, Thomas F.

2009-01-01

The analysis presented here follows the design specified by the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) Transition Scenarios study on achieving climate stabilization goals with delayed participation by developing countries. We use the MERGE model to evaluate the core EMF scenarios for both the international and the US-specific studies. Our results indicate that a radiative forcing target equivalent to 450 ppmv CO 2 -e cannot be met even allowing for full participation and overshoot during the entire 21st century. With delayed participation of developing countries, a target of 550 ppmv CO 2 -e is only attainable with pessimistic assumptions about economic growth, and even then only at very high cost. A target of 650 ppmv CO 2 -e can be met with delayed participation for a more affordable cost. We highlight sensitivities to the core scenarios in two key dimensions: (1) the effect of the unfolding global financial crisis on the rate of economic growth and (2) the willingness of initially non-participating countries to agree at the beginning of the next commitment period (i.e. 2012) to join the coalition at a pre-specified date in the future. We find that while the recession does not fundamentally change the crucial role of developing country involvement, advance agreement on their part to future targets could substantially reduce costs for all countries. (author)

Joint Direction-of-Departure and Direction-of-Arrival Estimation in a UWB MIMO Radar Detecting Targets with Fluctuating Radar Cross Sections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Idnin Pasya

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a joint direction-of-departure (DOD and direction-of-arrival (DOA estimation in a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO radar utilizing ultra wideband (UWB signals in detecting targets with fluctuating radar cross sections (RCS. The UWB MIMO radar utilized a combination of two-way MUSIC and majority decision based on angle histograms of estimated DODs and DOAs at each frequency of the UWB signal. The proposed angle estimation scheme was demonstrated to be effective in detecting targets with fluctuating RCS, compared to conventional spectra averaging method used in subband angle estimations. It was found that a wider bandwidth resulted in improved estimation performance. Numerical simulations along with experimental evaluations in a radio anechoic chamber are presented.

Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kale, Rajesh V.; Pohekar, Sanjay D.

2014-01-01

Forecasting of electricity demand has assumed a lot of importance to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity problems. LEAP has been used to forecast electricity demand for the target year 2030, for the state of Maharashtra (India). Holt’s exponential smoothing method has been used to arrive at suitable growth rates. Probable projections have been generated using uniform gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and different values of elasticity of demands. Three scenarios have been generated which include Business as Usual (BAU), Energy Conservation (EC) and Renewable Energy (REN). Subsequent analysis on the basis of energy, environmental influence and cost has been done. In the target year 2030, the projected electricity demand for BAU and REN has increased by 107.3 per cent over the base year 2012 and EC electricity demand has grown by 54.3 per cent. The estimated values of green house gas (GHG) for BAU and EC, in the year 2030, are 245.2 per cent and 152.4 per cent more than the base year and for REN it is 46.2 per cent less. Sensitivity analysis has been performed to study the effect on the total cost of scenarios. Policy implications in view of the results obtained are also discussed. - Highlights: • Forecasted electricity scenarios by Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP). • Critically analyzed the demand and supply prior to 2012 for a period of six years. • Used Holt’s exponential smoothing method ARIMA (0,1,1) for finding growth rates. • Devised suitable LEAP model for the generated scenarios. • Discussed policy implications for the generated scenarios

Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

2017-01-01

In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

[Blood-brain barrier part III: therapeutic approaches to cross the blood-brain barrier and target the brain].

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, N; Miller, F; Cazaubon, S; Couraud, P-O

2010-03-01

Over the last few years, the blood-brain barrier has come to be considered as the main limitation for the treatment of neurological diseases caused by inflammatory, tumor or neurodegenerative disorders. In the blood-brain barrier, the close intercellular contact between cerebral endothelial cells due to tight junctions prevents the passive diffusion of hydrophilic components from the bloodstream into the brain. Several specific transport systems (via transporters expressed on cerebral endothelial cells) are implicated in the delivery of nutriments, ions and vitamins to the brain; other transporters expressed on cerebral endothelial cells extrude endogenous substances or xenobiotics, which have crossed the cerebral endothelium, out of the brain and into the bloodstream. Recently, several strategies have been proposed to target the brain, (i) by by-passing the blood-brain barrier by central drug administration, (ii) by increasing permeability of the blood-brain barrier, (iii) by modulating the expression and/or the activity of efflux transporters, (iv) by using the physiological receptor-dependent blood-brain barrier transport, and (v) by creating new viral or chemical vectors to cross the blood-brain barrier. This review focuses on the illustration of these different approaches. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

International and domestic uses of solid biofuels under different renewable energy support scenarios in the European Union

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoefnagels, Ric; Resch, Gustav; Junginger, Martin; Faaij, André

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A GIS based intermodal biomass transport model was developed for the European Union. • It was linked to the renewable energy model Green-X updated with biomass trade. • Scenarios of renewable energy deployment in the EU27 to 2020 were assessed. • Domestic biomass resources will remain the largest source of bioenergy (over 90%). • But increasing amounts of solid biomass will be traded (up to 506 PJ in 2020). - Abstract: This article describes the development of a geographic information systems (GIS) based biomass transport analysis tool BIT-UU used in combination with the European renewable energy model Green-X. BIT-UU calculates cost and GHG emissions from lowest cost routes, using intermodal transport (by road, rail, inland waterways and sea) between origins of supply and demand destinations. With the developed biomass trade module in Green-X, the role of bioenergy can be evaluated in the larger context of renewable energy deployment. The modeling framework takes into account the current and future energy policies at EU and country levels, competition with alternative sources of renewable energy (e.g. photovoltaic, wind) and sectors (electricity, heat, transport fuels) as well as competition between EU member states for the same biomass resources. Scenario projections to 2020 are used to demonstrate the developed modeling framework. According to these scenarios, biomass from domestic supply remains the most important source of bioenergy (91–93% in 2020). However, the role of traded solid biomass will become increasingly important. With a business as usual scenario, assuming continuation of current renewable energy policies to 2020, the binding renewable energy targets will not be achieved, but trade of solid biomass will still increase up to 451 PJ in 2020. In the scenario that meets the conditions to achieve the 20% renewable energy target in 2020, traded solid biomass is projected to increase to 440 PJ if sustainability criteria are

Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

2016-02-11

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

Straight-Line Target Tracking for Unmanned Surface Vehicles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morten Breivik

2008-10-01

Full Text Available This paper considers the subject of straight-line target tracking for unmanned surface vehicles (USVs. Target-tracking represents motion control scenarios where no information about the target behavior is known in advance, i.e., the path that the target traverses is not defined apriori. Specifically, this work presents the design of a motion control system which enables an underactuated USV to track a target that moves in a straight line at high speed. The motion control system employs a guidance principle originally developed for interceptor missiles, as well as a novel velocity controller inspired by maneuverability and agility concepts found in fighter aircraft literature. The performance of the suggested design is illustrated through full-scale USV experiments in the Trondheimsfjord.

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

Multi-task learning for cross-platform siRNA efficacy prediction: an in-silico study.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qi; Xu, Qian; Zheng, Vincent W; Xue, Hong; Cao, Zhiwei; Yang, Qiang

2010-04-10

Gene silencing using exogenous small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) is now a widespread molecular tool for gene functional study and new-drug target identification. The key mechanism in this technique is to design efficient siRNAs that incorporated into the RNA-induced silencing complexes (RISC) to bind and interact with the mRNA targets to repress their translations to proteins. Although considerable progress has been made in the computational analysis of siRNA binding efficacy, few joint analysis of different RNAi experiments conducted under different experimental scenarios has been done in research so far, while the joint analysis is an important issue in cross-platform siRNA efficacy prediction. A collective analysis of RNAi mechanisms for different datasets and experimental conditions can often provide new clues on the design of potent siRNAs. An elegant multi-task learning paradigm for cross-platform siRNA efficacy prediction is proposed. Experimental studies were performed on a large dataset of siRNA sequences which encompass several RNAi experiments recently conducted by different research groups. By using our multi-task learning method, the synergy among different experiments is exploited and an efficient multi-task predictor for siRNA efficacy prediction is obtained. The 19 most popular biological features for siRNA according to their jointly importance in multi-task learning were ranked. Furthermore, the hypothesis is validated out that the siRNA binding efficacy on different messenger RNAs(mRNAs) have different conditional distribution, thus the multi-task learning can be conducted by viewing tasks at an "mRNA"-level rather than at the "experiment"-level. Such distribution diversity derived from siRNAs bound to different mRNAs help indicate that the properties of target mRNA have important implications on the siRNA binding efficacy. The knowledge gained from our study provides useful insights on how to analyze various cross-platform RNAi data for uncovering

Multi-task learning for cross-platform siRNA efficacy prediction: an in-silico study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xue Hong

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Gene silencing using exogenous small interfering RNAs (siRNAs is now a widespread molecular tool for gene functional study and new-drug target identification. The key mechanism in this technique is to design efficient siRNAs that incorporated into the RNA-induced silencing complexes (RISC to bind and interact with the mRNA targets to repress their translations to proteins. Although considerable progress has been made in the computational analysis of siRNA binding efficacy, few joint analysis of different RNAi experiments conducted under different experimental scenarios has been done in research so far, while the joint analysis is an important issue in cross-platform siRNA efficacy prediction. A collective analysis of RNAi mechanisms for different datasets and experimental conditions can often provide new clues on the design of potent siRNAs. Results An elegant multi-task learning paradigm for cross-platform siRNA efficacy prediction is proposed. Experimental studies were performed on a large dataset of siRNA sequences which encompass several RNAi experiments recently conducted by different research groups. By using our multi-task learning method, the synergy among different experiments is exploited and an efficient multi-task predictor for siRNA efficacy prediction is obtained. The 19 most popular biological features for siRNA according to their jointly importance in multi-task learning were ranked. Furthermore, the hypothesis is validated out that the siRNA binding efficacy on different messenger RNAs(mRNAs have different conditional distribution, thus the multi-task learning can be conducted by viewing tasks at an "mRNA"-level rather than at the "experiment"-level. Such distribution diversity derived from siRNAs bound to different mRNAs help indicate that the properties of target mRNA have important implications on the siRNA binding efficacy. Conclusions The knowledge gained from our study provides useful insights on how to

Effects of a Severe Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic in Western Alberta, Canada under Two Forest Management Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard R. Schneider

2010-01-01

Full Text Available We used a simulation model to investigate possible effects of a severe mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins epidemic under two management scenarios in Alberta, Canada. Our simulated outbreak was based on the current epidemic in British Columbia, which may kill close to 80% of the province's pine volume. Our two management scenarios were conventional harvest and a pine-reduction strategy modeled on a component of Alberta's Mountain Pine Beetle Management Strategy. The pine strategy seeks to reduce the number of susceptible pine stands by 75% over the next 20 years through targeted harvesting by the forest industry. Our simulations showed that the pine strategy could not be effectively implemented, even if the onset of the beetle outbreak was delayed for 20 years. Even though we increased mill capacity by 20% and directed all harvesting to high volume pine stands during the pine strategy's surge cut, the amount of highly susceptible pine was reduced by only 43%. Additional pine volume remained within mixed stands that were not targeted by the pine strategy. When the outbreak occurred in each scenario, sufficient pine remained on the landscape for the beetle to cause the timber supply to collapse. Alternative management approaches and avenues for future research are discussed.

Data fusion for target tracking and classification with wireless sensor network

Science.gov (United States)

Pannetier, Benjamin; Doumerc, Robin; Moras, Julien; Dezert, Jean; Canevet, Loic

2016-10-01

In this paper, we address the problem of multiple ground target tracking and classification with information obtained from a unattended wireless sensor network. A multiple target tracking (MTT) algorithm, taking into account road and vegetation information, is proposed based on a centralized architecture. One of the key issue is how to adapt classical MTT approach to satisfy embedded processing. Based on track statistics, the classification algorithm uses estimated location, velocity and acceleration to help to classify targets. The algorithms enables tracking human and vehicles driving both on and off road. We integrate road or trail width and vegetation cover, as constraints in target motion models to improve performance of tracking under constraint with classification fusion. Our algorithm also presents different dynamic models, to palliate the maneuvers of targets. The tracking and classification algorithms are integrated into an operational platform (the fusion node). In order to handle realistic ground target tracking scenarios, we use an autonomous smart computer deposited in the surveillance area. After the calibration step of the heterogeneous sensor network, our system is able to handle real data from a wireless ground sensor network. The performance of system is evaluated in a real exercise for intelligence operation ("hunter hunt" scenario).

Global Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schrattenholzer, L.

2005-01-01

The Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) develops policy-relevant global and world-regional energy perspectives. The basic premise of the ECS's research program is a global trend of d ecarbonization . Firstly, decarbonization includes a trend toward ever-greater efficiency, or ever less waste, in society's use of energy resources. Secondly, it includes a trend towards less carbon-intensive fossil fuels (e.g., from coal toward natural gas) and, further, to non-fossil fuels, especially renewable energy carriers. Technological change is generally regarded as one of the key drivers of sustained economic growth. Long-term energy scenarios developed at IIASA and elsewhere show that, depending on key assumptions on drivers such as population, economic growth and technological development, global energy development can be environmentally unsustainable. First, energy development might not lead to stabilizing greenhouse concentrations and might thus have significant negative impacts on the global climate. In addition, some, especially coal-intensive, scenarios might lead to levels of acid deposition at which significant damage to sensitive ecosystems is expected to occur in Europe and, even more so, in Asia. A continuation of the observed historical long-term trends of decarbonization, dematerialization, and energy efficiency improvements might therefore not be sufficient to achieve sustainable growth. Targeted technological development aiming at accelerating decarbonization, dematerialization, and/or efficiency improvement may be one of the most effective means for reconciling economic growth with global environmental objectives. This might require a step-up in investments in R and D and in the demonstration of technologies so as to stimulate both learning-by-searching and learning-by-doing. In this presentation, global E3 scenarios will be summarized in the following three groups: Non

Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

2012-01-01

the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban....... In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via...... in urban distribution that different spatial planning strategies may initiate, and thus change the shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios outline different planning strategies, leading to a more homogenous urban structure, targeted at a reduction of transportation work and thus energy consumption...

Proliferation resistance of a hypothetical sodium fast reactor under an assumed breakout scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Whitlock, Jeremy [Non-Proliferation and Safeguards, AECL Chalk River Laboratories, Stn. 91, Chalk River, Ontario, K0J 1J0 (Canada); Inoue, Naoko; Senzaki, Masao [Japan Atomic Energy Agency - JAEA (Japan); Bley, Dennis [Buttonwood Consulting Inc., Oakton, VA (United States); Wonder, Ed [National Nuclear Security Administration, Department of Energy (United States)

2009-06-15

The Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR and PP) Working Group of the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) conducted a high-level pathway analysis of a hypothetical sodium fast reactor and integral fuel processing facility (called collectively the 'Example Sodium Fast Reactor' or ESFR), as a test of the effectiveness of its analysis methodology. From a common set of assumed host-state capabilities and objectives, a number of threat scenarios emerge (Concealed Diversion, Concealed Misuse, Breakout or Overt Misuse, and Theft/Sabotage). This paper presents the results of the analysis based on the Breakout scenario. A distinguishing aspect of Breakout scenario consideration concerns the optimal use of the time from breakout to weapons readiness, which is related to the Proliferation Time measure. The goal of analyzing the breakout scenario was therefore to complement other analyses involving the Concealed Misuse and Diversion scenarios by exploring the minimum post-breakout time to weapons readiness. Four target strategies were chosen for analysis: (1) Diversion of LEU feed material at front-end of the ESFR facility; (2) Misuse of the reactor facility to irradiate fertile material; (3) Misuse of the reactor facility to irradiate material in the in-core fuel storage basket; and (4) Misuse of the fuel processing facility to higher-purity TRU. The investigation identified several general 'sub-strategies' within the Breakout scenario, dependent upon the aggressiveness with which a State pursues its intent to break out (including its aversion to the risk of detection). The sub-strategy chosen by a proliferant state will affect both the time available and potential complexity for proliferation activities. The sub-strategy chosen is itself affected by political factors (foreign relations agenda of state, probability of external intervention after breakout, external dependence of proliferant state's supply chain, etc.) These factors

Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

2013-09-01

This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

Investigating 100% renewable energy supply at regional level using scenario analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annicka Waenn

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Energy modelling work in Ireland to date has mainly taken place at a national level. A regional modelling approach is necessary however, for Ireland to reach the ambitious targets for renewable energy and emissions reduction. This paper explores the usefulness of the energy modelling tool EnergyPLAN in investigating the energy system of the South West Region of Ireland. This paper estimates a 10.5% current renewable energy share of energy use, with 40% renewable electricity. We build and assess a reference scenario and three renewable energy scenarios from a technological and resources perspective. The results show that sufficient resources are available for the South West Region energy system to become 100% renewable and quantifies the land-use implications. Moreover, EnergyPLAN can be a useful tool in exploring different technical solutions. However, thorough investigations of as many alternatives as possible, is necessary before major investments are made in a future energy system.

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

2017-01-01

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-01-01

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

2000-01-01

Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

Vulnerability to terrorist attacks in European electricity decarbonisation scenarios: Comparing renewable electricity imports to gas imports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lilliestam, Johan

2014-01-01

The decarbonised future European electricity system must remain secure: reliable electricity supply is a prerequisite for the functioning of modern society. Scenarios like Desertec, which partially rely on solar power imports from the Middle East and North Africa, may be attractive for decarbonisation, but raise concerns about terrorists interrupting supply by attacking the long, unprotected transmission lines in the Sahara. In this paper, I develop new methods and assess the European vulnerability to terrorist attacks in the Desertec scenario. I compare this to the vulnerability of today's system and a decarbonisation scenario in which Europe relies on gas imports for electricity generation. I show that the vulnerability of both gas and electricity imports is low, but electricity imports are more vulnerable than gas imports, due to their technical characteristics. Gas outages (and, potentially, resulting blackouts) are the very unlikely consequence even of very high-number attacks against the gas import system, whereas short blackouts are the potential consequence of a few attacks against the import electricity lines. As the impacts of all except extreme attacks are limited, terrorists cannot attack energy infrastructure and cause spectacular, fear-creating outages. Both gas and electricity import infrastructure are thus unattractive and unlikely terrorist targets. - Highlights: • A comparison of terrorism risks of importing solar power and gas for power generation. • Both scenarios show low vulnerability to terrorist attacks. • Within low vulnerabilities, gas imports are less vulnerable than electricity imports. • Causing spectacular, large and long outages is very difficult for attacker. • The attractiveness of gas and power import infrastructure as terrorist target is low

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Therapeutic Targets Revealed by Tumor-Stroma Cross-Talk Analyses in Patient-Derived Xenografts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rémy Nicolle

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Preclinical models based on patient-derived xenografts have remarkable specificity in distinguishing transformed human tumor cells from non-transformed murine stromal cells computationally. We obtained 29 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC xenografts from either resectable or non-resectable patients (surgery and endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspirate, respectively. Extensive multiomic profiling revealed two subtypes with distinct clinical outcomes. These subtypes uncovered specific alterations in DNA methylation and transcription as well as in signaling pathways involved in tumor-stromal cross-talk. The analysis of these pathways indicates therapeutic opportunities for targeting both compartments and their interactions. In particular, we show that inhibiting NPC1L1 with Ezetimibe, a clinically available drug, might be an efficient approach for treating pancreatic cancers. These findings uncover the complex and diverse interplay between PDAC tumors and the stroma and demonstrate the pivotal role of xenografts for drug discovery and relevance to PDAC.

Targeted Learning

CERN Document Server

van der Laan, Mark J

2011-01-01

The statistics profession is at a unique point in history. The need for valid statistical tools is greater than ever; data sets are massive, often measuring hundreds of thousands of measurements for a single subject. The field is ready to move towards clear objective benchmarks under which tools can be evaluated. Targeted learning allows (1) the full generalization and utilization of cross-validation as an estimator selection tool so that the subjective choices made by humans are now made by the machine, and (2) targeting the fitting of the probability distribution of the data toward the targe

Scenario development methods and practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

Approaching the Kyoto targets: a case study for Basilicata region (Italy)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salvia, M.; Cuomo, V. [Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Tito Scalo (Italy). Istituto di Metodologie per l' Analisi Ambientale; Pietrapertosa, F. [Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Tito Scalo (Italy). Istituto di Metodologie per l' Analisi Ambientale; Universita degli Studi della Basilicata, Potenza (Italy). Dip. di Ingegneria e Fisica dell' Ambiente; Cosmi, C. [Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Tito Scalo (Italy). Istituto di Metodologie per l' Analisi Ambientale; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica della Materia, Napoli (Italy); Macchiato, M. [Universita Federico II, Napoli (Italy). Dip. di Scienze Fisiche

2004-02-01

Approaching the national Kyoto Protocol (KP) targets involves a re-definition of the actual configuration of local energy systems. This study deals with a local scale application of the IEA-MARKAL models generator, in which the anthropogenic system of Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) is investigated to support the definition of coherent long- term strategies and sound climate protection policies. A scenario by scenario analysis points out the behaviour of the optimal mix of fuels and technologies in the presence of carbon dioxide emissions constraints. Trade off curves and reduced costs analyses outline the most effective actions for contributing to the national KP targets, with particular emphasis on the interventions in Civil (Residential, Commercial and Services) and waste management sectors. (author)

Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Selin, Cynthia Lea

2006-01-01

formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

1998-04-01

The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

Optimizing the current ramp-up phase for the hybrid ITER scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hogeweij, G.M.D.; Citrin, J.; Artaud, J.-F.; Imbeaux, F.; Litaudon, X.; Casper, T.A.; Köchl, F.; Voitsekhovitch, I.

2013-01-01

The current ramp-up phase for the ITER hybrid scenario is analysed with the CRONOS integrated modelling suite. The simulations presented in this paper show that the heating systems available at ITER allow, within the operational limits, the attainment of a hybrid q profile at the end of the current ramp-up. A reference ramp-up scenario is reached by a combination of NBI, ECCD (UPL) and LHCD. A heating scheme with only NBI and ECCD can also reach the target q profile; however, LHCD can play a crucial role in reducing the flux consumption during the ramp-up phase. The optimum heating scheme depends on the chosen transport model, and on assumptions of parameters like n e peaking, edge T e,i and Z eff . The sensitivity of the current diffusion on parameters that are not easily controlled, shows that development of real-time control is important to reach the target q profile. A first step in that direction has been indicated in this paper. Minimizing resistive flux consumption and optimizing the q profile turn out to be conflicting requirements. A trade-off between these two requirements has to be made. In this paper it is shown that fast current ramp with L-mode current overshoot is at the one extreme, i.e. the optimum q profile at the cost of increased resistive flux consumption, whereas early H-mode transition is at the other extreme. (paper)

Collisions of fast multicharged ions in gas targets: charge transfer and ionization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schlachter, A.S.

1981-05-01

Measurements of cross sections for charge transfer and ionization of H 2 and rare-gas targets have been made with fast, highly stripped projectiles in charge states as high as 59+. We have found an empirical scaling rule for electron-capture cross section in H 2 valid at energies above 275 keV/amu. Similar scaling might exist for other target gases. Cross sections are generally in good agreement with theory. We have found a scaling rule for electron loss from H in collisions with a fast highly stripped projectile, based on Olson's classical-trajectory Monte-Carlo calculations, and confirmed by measurements in an H 2 target. We have found a similar scaling rule for net ionization of rare-gas targets, based on Olson's CTMC calculations and the independent-electron model. Measurements are essentially consistent with the scaled cross sections. Calculations and measurements of recoil-ion charge-state spectra show large cross sections for the production of highly charged slow recoil ions

Basic Simulation Environment for Highly Customized Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Kinematic Scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Chai, Linguo; Cai, Baigen; ShangGuan, Wei; Wang, Jian; Wang, Huashen

2017-08-23

To enhance the reality of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) kinematic simulation scenarios and to guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the verification, a four-layer CAVs kinematic simulation framework, which is composed with road network layer, vehicle operating layer, uncertainties modelling layer and demonstrating layer, is proposed in this paper. Properties of the intersections are defined to describe the road network. A target position based vehicle position updating method is designed to simulate such vehicle behaviors as lane changing and turning. Vehicle kinematic models are implemented to maintain the status of the vehicles when they are moving towards the target position. Priorities for individual vehicle control are authorized for different layers. Operation mechanisms of CAVs uncertainties, which are defined as position error and communication delay in this paper, are implemented in the simulation to enhance the reality of the simulation. A simulation platform is developed based on the proposed methodology. A comparison of simulated and theoretical vehicle delay has been analyzed to prove the validity and the creditability of the platform. The scenario of rear-end collision avoidance is conducted to verify the uncertainties operating mechanisms, and a slot-based intersections (SIs) control strategy is realized and verified in the simulation platform to show the supports of the platform to CAVs kinematic simulation and verification.

Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dhar, Subash; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

2015-01-01

Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three counts – energy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher imports, besides causing more CO 2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based on sustainable strategies for passenger and freight mobility, vehicle technologies and fuel using global CO 2 prices that correspond to 2 °C global stabilisation target. The scenarios span from years 2010 to 2050 and are analysed using the energy system model-ANSWER MARKAL. The SLCT scenario has improved energy security (cumulative oil demand lower by 3100 Mtoe), improved air quality (PM 2.5 emissions never exceed the existing levels) and the cumulative CO 2 emissions are lower by 13 billion t CO 2 thereby showing that achieving development objectives with CO 2 co-benefits is feasible. -- Highlights: •India's BAU transitions pose challenges for energy security and climate change. •Sustainable transport policies deliver benefits for air quality and energy security. •Sustainable transport policies fall short of mitigation needed for 2 °C stabilisation. •Transport sector becomes increasingly dependent on electricity. •Low carbon policies are essential to clean transport and electricity generation

GHG emission scenarios in Asia and the world: The key technologies for significant reduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akashi, Osamu; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Masui, Toshihiko; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Kainuma, Mikiko

2012-01-01

In this paper, we explore GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 in Asia and the world as part of the Asian Modeling Exercise and assess technology options for meeting a 2.6 W/m 2 radiative forcing target using AIM/Enduse[Global] and AIM/Impact[Policy]. Global GHG emissions in 2050 are required to be reduced by 72% relative to a reference scenario, which corresponds to a 57% reduction from the 2005 level, in order to meet the above target. Energy intensity improvement contributes a lot to curbing CO 2 emission in the short-term. Meanwhile, carbon intensity reduction and CO 2 capture play a large role for further emission reduction in the mid to long-term. The top five key technologies in terms of reduction amount are CCS, solar power generation, wind power generation, biomass power generation and biofuel, which, in total, account for about 60% of global GHG emissions reduction in 2050. We implement additional model runs, each of which enforced limited availability of one of the key technology. The result shows that the 2.6 W/m 2 target up to 2050 is achievable even if availability of any one of the key technologies is limited to half the level achieved in the default simulation. However, if the use of CCS or biomass is limited, the cumulative GHG abatement cost until 2050 increases considerably. Therefore CCS and biomass have a vital role in curbing costs to achieve significant emission reductions. - Highlights: ► We explore GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 in Asia and the world. ► Significant GHG emission reduction is required to limit radiative forcing at low level. ► We assess technology options for achieving significant GHG emission reduction. ► CCS, solar power, wind power, and biomass are the key technologies for reduction. ► Especially, CCS and biomass play a vital role in curbing costs to achieve significant emission reductions.

Making sense of (exceptional) causal relations. A cross-cultural and cross-linguistic study.

Science.gov (United States)

Le Guen, Olivier; Samland, Jana; Friedrich, Thomas; Hanus, Daniel; Brown, Penelope

2015-01-01

In order to make sense of the world, humans tend to see causation almost everywhere. Although most causal relations may seem straightforward, they are not always construed in the same way cross-culturally. In this study, we investigate concepts of "chance," "coincidence," or "randomness" that refer to assumed relations between intention, action, and outcome in situations, and we ask how people from different cultures make sense of such non-law-like connections. Based on a framework proposed by Alicke (2000), we administered a task that aims to be a neutral tool for investigating causal construals cross-culturally and cross-linguistically. Members of four different cultural groups, rural Mayan Yucatec and Tseltal speakers from Mexico and urban students from Mexico and Germany, were presented with a set of scenarios involving various types of causal and non-causal relations and were asked to explain the described events. Three links varied as to whether they were present or not in the scenarios: Intention-to-Action, Action-to-Outcome, and Intention-to-Outcome. Our results show that causality is recognized in all four cultural groups. However, how causality and especially non-law-like relations are interpreted depends on the type of links, the cultural background and the language used. In all three groups, Action-to-Outcome is the decisive link for recognizing causality. Despite the fact that the two Mayan groups share similar cultural backgrounds, they display different ideologies regarding concepts of non-law-like relations. The data suggests that the concept of "chance" is not universal, but seems to be an explanation that only some cultural groups draw on to make sense of specific situations. Of particular importance is the existence of linguistic concepts in each language that trigger ideas of causality in the responses from each cultural group.

Making sense of (exceptional) causal relations. A cross-cultural and cross-linguistic study

Science.gov (United States)

Le Guen, Olivier; Samland, Jana; Friedrich, Thomas; Hanus, Daniel; Brown, Penelope

2015-01-01

In order to make sense of the world, humans tend to see causation almost everywhere. Although most causal relations may seem straightforward, they are not always construed in the same way cross-culturally. In this study, we investigate concepts of “chance,” “coincidence,” or “randomness” that refer to assumed relations between intention, action, and outcome in situations, and we ask how people from different cultures make sense of such non-law-like connections. Based on a framework proposed by Alicke (2000), we administered a task that aims to be a neutral tool for investigating causal construals cross-culturally and cross-linguistically. Members of four different cultural groups, rural Mayan Yucatec and Tseltal speakers from Mexico and urban students from Mexico and Germany, were presented with a set of scenarios involving various types of causal and non-causal relations and were asked to explain the described events. Three links varied as to whether they were present or not in the scenarios: Intention-to-Action, Action-to-Outcome, and Intention-to-Outcome. Our results show that causality is recognized in all four cultural groups. However, how causality and especially non-law-like relations are interpreted depends on the type of links, the cultural background and the language used. In all three groups, Action-to-Outcome is the decisive link for recognizing causality. Despite the fact that the two Mayan groups share similar cultural backgrounds, they display different ideologies regarding concepts of non-law-like relations. The data suggests that the concept of “chance” is not universal, but seems to be an explanation that only some cultural groups draw on to make sense of specific situations. Of particular importance is the existence of linguistic concepts in each language that trigger ideas of causality in the responses from each cultural group. PMID:26579028

The development of multitasking in children aged 7-12years: Evidence from cross-sectional and longitudinal data.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Tian-Xiao; Xie, Weizhen; Chen, Chu-Sheng; Altgassen, Mareike; Wang, Ya; Cheung, Eric F C; Chan, Raymond C K

2017-09-01

This study investigated the development of multitasking ability across childhood. A sample of 65 typically developing children aged 7, 9, and 11years completed two multitasking tests across three time points within a year. Cross-sectional and longitudinal data consistently indicated continuous linear growth in children's multitasking ability. By the age of 12years, children could effectively perform a simple multitasking scenario comprising six equally important tasks, although their ability to strategically organize assorted tasks with varied values and priorities in a complex multitasking setting had not reached proficiency yet. Cognitive functions underlying a complex multitasking scenario varied in their developmental trajectories. Retrospective memory developed continuously from 7 to 12years of age, suggesting its supporting role in the development of multitasking. Planning skills developed slowly and showed practice effects for older children but not for younger children. The ability to adhere to plans also developed slowly, and children of all age groups benefited from practice. This study offers a preliminary benchmark for future comparison with clinical populations and may help to inform the development of targeted interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

2014-01-01

TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

Higgs particle production at LEP in multi-doublet scenarios with hierarchy of the vacuum expectation values

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalinowski, J.; Pokorski, S.

1989-01-01

We discuss the production at LEP of Higgs particles in multi-doublet scenarios with a hierarchy of the vacuum expectation values ν 2 /ν 1 ≅m t /m b . The cross sections are similar or larger than for the standard Higgs boson of the same mass but the signature is different. Events with four b-jets are the only important signature of such Higgs particles. (orig.)

Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buchholtz, Mikael

2005-01-01

The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Z.

1992-01-01

Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen R. Carpenter

2006-06-01

Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

The GEO-3 Scenarios 2002-2032. Quantification and Analysis of Environmental Impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bakkes, J.; Potting, J. (eds.) [National Institute for Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Henrichs, T. [Center for Environmental Systems Research CESR, University of Kassel, Kassel (Germany); Kemp-Benedict, E.; Raskin, P. [Stockholm Environment Institute SEI, Boston, MA (United States); Masui, T.; Rana, A. [National Institute for Environmental Studies NIES, Ibaraki (Japan); Nellemann, C. [United Nations Environment Programme UNEP, GRID Global and Regional Integrated Data centres Arendal, Lillehammer (Norway); Rothman, D. [International Centre for Integrative Studies ICIS, Maastricht University, Maastricht (Netherlands)

2004-07-01

The four contrasting visions of the world's next three decades as presented in the third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) have many implications for policy - from hunger to climate change and from freshwater issues to biodiversity. The four scenarios analysed are Markets First, Policy First, Security First, Sustainability First. Presenting a deeper analysis than the original GEO-3 report, this Technical Report quantifies the impacts of the scenarios for all 19 GEO 'sub-regions', such as Eastern Africa and Central Europe. Regional impacts are discussed in the context of sustainable development. The report summary compares the impacts of the four scenarios across regions - and for the world as a whole - in the light of internationally agreed targets including those in the Millennium Declaration where applicable. It provides an account of the analytical methods, key assumptions, models and other tools, along with the approaches used in the analyses. Based on the methods and results, the report looks back on the process of producing the forward-looking analysis for GEO-3. Were all analytical centres on the same track? Did the approach adopted for GEO-3 contribute to the overall GEO objective of strengthening global-regional involvement and linkages?.

TargetCompare: A web interface to compare simultaneous miRNAs targets.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreira, Fabiano Cordeiro; Dustan, Bruno; Hamoy, Igor G; Ribeiro-Dos-Santos, André M; Dos Santos, Andrea Ribeiro

2014-01-01

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small non-coding nucleotide sequences between 17 and 25 nucleotides in length that primarily function in the regulation of gene expression. A since miRNA has thousand of predict targets in a complex, regulatory cell signaling network. Therefore, it is of interest to study multiple target genes simultaneously. Hence, we describe a web tool (developed using Java programming language and MySQL database server) to analyse multiple targets of pre-selected miRNAs. We cross validated the tool in eight most highly expressed miRNAs in the antrum region of stomach. This helped to identify 43 potential genes that are target of at least six of the referred miRNAs. The developed tool aims to reduce the randomness and increase the chance of selecting strong candidate target genes and miRNAs responsible for playing important roles in the studied tissue. http://lghm.ufpa.br/targetcompare.

Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

1998-01-01

This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

Patient preference and ease of use for different coagulation factor VIII reconstitution device scenarios: a cross-sectional survey in five European countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cimino E

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Ernesto Cimino,1 Silvia Linari,2 Mara Malerba,3 Susan Halimeh,4 Francesca Biondo,5 Martina Westfeld5 1Dipartimento Medicina Clinica e Sperimentale, Universita’ degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Naples, Italy; 2Agenzia per l’ Emofilia, AOU Careggi di Firenze, Florence, Italy; 3Fondazione Cà Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Centro Emofilia e Trombosi “A Bianchi Bonomi”, Milan, Italy; 4CRC Coagulation Research Centre GmbH, Duisburg, Germany; 5Pfizer Italia, Rome, Italy Introduction: Hemophilia A treatment involves replacing the deficient coagulation factor VIII. This process may involve multiple steps that might create a barrier to adherence. A new dual-chamber syringe (DCS; FuseNGo® was recently introduced with the aim of simplifying reconstitution. Aim: This study aimed to identify factors associated with adult patients’ preferences for different coagulation factor VIII reconstitution systems and to test ease of use and patient preference for the DCS. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of adults with hemophilia A in five European countries was conducted; a subset of subjects also participated in a practical testing session of the DCS. Results: Among the 299 survey participants, the device scenario requiring the least equipment and reconstitution steps (the DCS received a median preference rating of 71 out of 100 (0 being “the least desirable” and 100 “the most desirable” rating. This was significantly higher than the other scenarios (the next highest achieved a median of 50 points; P<0.001. Participants would be more likely to use this device prophylactically (P<0.001. Among the 98 participants who tested the DCS, 57% preferred this device over their current device, 26% preferred their current device, and 17% had no preference. The DCS was rated as easier to use than current treatment devices (median score 9/10 versus 7/10 for current treatment, P=0.001. Conclusion: The survey indicates that the prefilled DCS, Fuse

Pilots' Attention Distributions Between Chasing a Moving Target and a Stationary Target.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wen-Chin; Yu, Chung-San; Braithwaite, Graham; Greaves, Matthew

2016-12-01

Attention plays a central role in cognitive processing; ineffective attention may induce accidents in flight operations. The objective of the current research was to examine military pilots' attention distributions between chasing a moving target and a stationary target. In the current research, 37 mission-ready F-16 pilots participated. Subjects' eye movements were collected by a portable head-mounted eye-tracker during tactical training in a flight simulator. The scenarios of chasing a moving target (air-to-air) and a stationary target (air-to-surface) consist of three operational phases: searching, aiming, and lock-on to the targets. The findings demonstrated significant differences in pilots' percentage of fixation during the searching phase between air-to-air (M = 37.57, SD = 5.72) and air-to-surface (M = 33.54, SD = 4.68). Fixation duration can indicate pilots' sustained attention to the trajectory of a dynamic target during air combat maneuvers. Aiming at the stationary target resulted in larger pupil size (M = 27,105, SD = 6565), reflecting higher cognitive loading than aiming at the dynamic target (M = 23,864, SD = 8762). Pilots' visual behavior is not only closely related to attention distribution, but also significantly associated with task characteristics. Military pilots demonstrated various visual scan patterns for searching and aiming at different types of targets based on the research settings of a flight simulator. The findings will facilitate system designers' understanding of military pilots' cognitive processes during tactical operations. They will assist human-centered interface design to improve pilots' situational awareness. The application of an eye-tracking device integrated with a flight simulator is a feasible and cost-effective intervention to improve the efficiency and safety of tactical training.Li W-C, Yu C-S, Braithwaite G, Greaves M. Pilots' attention distributions between chasing a moving target and a stationary target. Aerosp Med

Size of lethality target in mouse immature oocytes determined with accelerated heavy ions.

Science.gov (United States)

Straume, T; Dobson, R L; Kwan, T C

1989-01-01

Mouse immature oocytes were irradiated in vivo with highly charged, heavy ions from the Bevalac accelerator at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory. The particles used were 670-MeV/nucleon Si14+, 570-MeV/nucleon Ar18+, and 450-MeV/nucleon Fe26+. The cross-sectional area of the lethality target in these extremely radiosensitive cells was determined from fluence-response curves and information on energy deposition by delta rays. Results indicate a target cross-section larger than that of the nucleus, one which closely approximates the cross-sectional area of the entire oocyte. For 450-MeV/nucleon Fe26+ particles, the predicted target cross-sectional area is 120 +/- 16 microns2, comparing well with the microscopically determined cross-sectional area of 111 +/- 12 microns2 for these cells. The present results are in agreement with our previous target studies which implicate the oocyte plasma membrane.

The feasibility of low concentration targets: An application of FUND

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tol, Richard S.J.

2009-01-01

This paper studies the feasibility of stringent targets for stabilizing ambient greenhouse gas concentrations using the FUND model. 170,000 policy scenarios were run, systematically varying the price of carbon, participation in climate policy, the strength of the climate feedback on the terrestrial carbon cycle, the no policy scenario, and the abatement costs. The results reveal the following. Climate policy has diminishing returns, and there is therefore a maximum to what can be achieved. The success of climate policy is hampered if, as is likely, the terrestrial biosphere turns from a carbon sink to a carbon source because of climate change. All major countries have to reduce their emissions in order to meet the more ambitious stabilization targets. The cost of climate policy would be lower if the stabilization target can be exceeded in the interim. The EU target of 2 deg. C warming above pre-industrial is infeasible under almost all assumptions. A cost-benefit analysis would endorse a target of 4.5 W m -2 (but not much stricter than that) if all major emitters engage in abatement. Under the same condition, the median US voter would support a 3.7 W m -2 target (but not much stricter than that). International permit trade would encourage large developing countries to reduce their emissions, but the trade flows would be substantial relative to product trade and much larger than official development aid.

Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parson, E A

2008-01-01

Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

2012-01-01

scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serhiy Nozhenko

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

A Scenario to Provide Atomic Data for Fusion Research in the Stage of Precision Physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jiaming; Gao Xiang; Cheng Cheng; Zhang Xiaole; Qing Bo

2010-01-01

In order to provide abundant atomic data for fusion research in the stage of precision physics, a scenario, being a combination of indispensable theoretical calculations and bench-mark experimental measurements, is proposed. Such abundant atomic data are compiled mainly by theoretical calculations. Accuracies of such abundant data (i.e., atomic energy levels and corresponding cross sections) are ascertained only by a finite number of bench-mark experimental measurements based on analytical calculation of scattering matrices.

Scenarios for an energy policy concept of the German Government

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagl, Stephan; Fuersch, Michaela; Paulus, Moritz; Richter, Jan; Trueby, Johannes; Lindenberger, Dietmar

2010-01-01

In this article we demonstrate how challenging greenhouse gas reduction targets of up to 95% until 2050 can be achieved in the German electricity sector. In the analysis, we focus on the main requirements to reach such challenging targets. To account for interdependencies between the electricity market and the rest of the economy, different models were used to account for feedback loops with all other sectors. We include scenarios with different runtimes and retrofit costs for existing nuclear plants to determine the effects of a prolongation of nuclear power plants in Germany. Key findings for the electricity sector include the importance of a European-wide coordinated electricity grid extension and the exploitation of regional comparative cost effects for renewable sites. Due to political restrictions, nuclear energy will not be available in Germany in 2050. However, the nuclear life time extension has a positive impact on end consumer electricity prices as well as economic growth in the medium term, if retrofit costs do not exceed certain limits. (orig.)

Measurement cross sections for radioisotopes production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrido, E.

2011-01-01

New radioactive isotopes for nuclear medicine can be produced using particle accelerators. This is one goal of Arronax, a high energy - 70 MeV - high intensity - 2*350 μA - cyclotron set up in Nantes. A priority list was established containing β - - 47 Sc, 67 Cu - β + - 44 Sc, 64 Cu, 82 Sr/ 82 Rb, 68 Ge/ 68 Ga - and α emitters - 211 At. Among these radioisotopes, the Scandium 47 and the Copper 67 have a strong interest in targeted therapy. The optimization of their productions required a good knowledge of their cross-sections but also of all the contaminants created during irradiation. We launched on Arronax a program to measure these production cross-sections using the Stacked-Foils' technique. It consists in irradiating several groups of foils - target, monitor and degrader foils - and in measuring the produced isotopes by γ-spectrometry. The monitor - nat Cu or nat Ni - is used to correct beam loss whereas degrader foils are used to lower beam energy. We chose to study the nat Ti(p,X) 47 Sc and 68 Zn(p,2p) 67 Cu reactions. Targets are respectively natural Titanium foil - bought from Goodfellow - and enriched Zinc 68 deposited on Silver. In the latter case, Zn targets were prepared in-house - electroplating of 68 Zn - and a chemical separation between Copper and Gallium isotopes has to be made before γ counting. Cross-section values for more than 40 different reactions cross-sections have been obtained from 18 MeV to 68 MeV. A comparison with the Talys code is systematically done. Several parameters of theoretical models have been studied and we found that is not possible to reproduce faithfully all the cross-sections with a given set of parameters. (author)

Cross-fault pressure depletion, Zechstein carbonate reservoir, Weser-Ems area, Northern German Gas Basin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Corona, F.V.; Brauckmann, F.; Beckmann, H.; Gobi, A.; Grassmann, S.; Neble, J.; Roettgen, K. [ExxonMobil Production Deutschland GmbH (EMPG), Hannover (Germany)

2013-08-01

A cross-fault pressure depletion study in Upper Permian Zechstein Ca2 carbonate reservoir was undertaken in the Weser-Ems area of the Northern German Gas Basin. The primary objectives are to develop a practical workflow to define cross-fault pressures scenarios for Zechstein Ca2 reservoir drillwells, to determine the key factors of cross-fault pressure behavior in this platform carbonate reservoir, and to translate the observed cross-fault pressure depletion to fault transmissibility for reservoir simulation models. Analysis of Zechstein Ca2 cross-fault pressures indicates that most Zechstein-cutting faults appear to act as fluid-flow baffles with some local occurrences of fault seal. Moreover, there appears to be distinct cross-fault baffling or pressure depletion trends that may be related to the extent of the separating fault or fault system, degree of reservoir flow-path tortuosity, and quality of reservoir juxtaposition. Based on the above observations, a three-part workflow was developed consisting of (1) careful interpretation and mapping of faults and fault networks, (2) analysis of reservoir juxtaposition and reservoir juxtaposition quality, and (3) application of the observed cross-fault pressure depletion trends. This approach is field-analog based, is practical, and is being used currently to provide reliable and supportable pressure prediction scenarios for subsequent Zechstein fault-bounded drill-well opportunities.

Target Acquisition: Human Observer Performance Studies and TARGAC Model Validation

Science.gov (United States)

1994-06-01

complete Scenario I run were displayed on a monitor. A transparent sheet was attached to the face of the monitor, the approach route was sketched on...track, passed a mark on the monitor face , the target was at a stop-sign location. The IRIG-B time of that instance was noted, and, since the distance of...route right 100- 80- 60 - 40 C.) 20 [- ion, A20 recognitio 0 0 . identification,C.) . 1I . I - - -• , 4) 1000 2000 3000 4000 SP Target G Q Target I0

Scenario-based energy efficiency and productivity in China: A non-radial directional distance function analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, H.; Zhou, P.; Zhou, D.Q.

2013-01-01

Improving energy efficiency and productivity is one of the most cost-effective ways for achieving the sustainable development target in China. This paper employs non-radial directional distance function approach to empirically investigate energy efficiency and energy productivity by including CO 2 emissions as an undesirable output. Three production scenarios, namely energy conservation (EC), energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER), and energy conservation, emission reduction and economic growth (ECEREG), are specified to assess China's energy efficiency and productivity growth during the period of Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Our empirical results show that there exist substantial differences in China's total-factor energy efficiency and productivity under different scenarios. Under the ECEREG scenario, the national average total-factor energy efficiency score was 0.6306 in 2005–2010, while the national average total-factor energy productivity increased by 0.27% annually during the period. The main driving force for energy productivity growth in China was energy technological change rather than energy efficiency change. - Highlights: • China's regional energy efficiency and productivity in 2005–2010 are evaluated. • Three production scenarios are considered. • Non-radial directional distance function with CO 2 emissions is employed. • Technological change is the main driver for China's energy productivity growth

Future energy demand in Laos. Scenario alternatives for development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luukkanen, J.; Kouphokham, K.; Panula-Ontto, J. [and others

2012-07-01

Energy production in Laos is still dominated by traditional fuels. Fuelwood in the main source of energy and most of the energy is consumed at households for cooking. Increase in the number of cars and motorbikes is rapidly increasing the use of imported petroleum products. Electrification is one of the central targets of the Lao government. The electrification rate has increased fast in Laos and in the year 2010 over 70 % households had electricity supply. The target is to have 90 % access to electricity by the year 2020. The World Bank regards the electrification of Lao PDR to be a success story. This paper deals with the present and future energy consumption in Laos. First the historical trends of energy use in different sectors are analysed. The future scenarios are constructed using LaoLinda model. Four different future alternative development paths are analysed using the model results. The energy use data source for the analysis is from the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) of Lao PDR. Economic and other data is from the Department of Statistics of Lao PDR.

Proton GE/GM from beam-target asymmetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mark Jones; Aram Aghalaryan; Abdellah Ahmidouch; Razmik Asaturyan; Frederic Bloch; Werner Boeglin; Peter Bosted; Cedric Carasco; Roger Carlini; Jinseok Cha; Jian-Ping Chen; Michael Christy; Leon Cole; Luminita Coman; Donald Crabb; Samuel Danagoulian; Donal Day; James Dunne; Mostafa Elaasar; Rolf Ent; Howard Fenker; Emil Frlez; David Gaskell; Liping Gan; Javier Gomez; Bitao Hu; Juerg Jourdan; Christopher Keith; Cynthia Keppel; Mahbubul Khandaker; Andreas Klein; Laird Kramer; Yongguang Liang; Jechiel Lichtenstadt; Richard Lindgren; David Mack; Paul McKee; Dustin McNulty; David Meekins; Hamlet Mkrtchyan; Rakhsha Nasseripour; Maria-Ioana Niculescu; Kristoff Normand; Blaine Norum; Dinko Pocanic; Yelena Prok; Brian Raue; Joerg Reinhold; Julie Roche; Daniela Rohe; Oscar Rondon-Aramayo; Nikolai Savvinov; Bradley Sawatzky; Mikell Seely; Ingo Sick; Karl Slifer; C. Smith; Gregory Smith; S. Stepanyan; Liguang Tang; Shigeyuki Tajima; Giuseppe Testa; William Vulcan; Kebin Wang; Glen Warren; Frank Wesselmann; Stephen Wood; Chen Yan; Lulin Yuan; Junho Yun; Markus Zeier; Hong Guo Zhu

2006-01-01

The ratio of the proton's electric to magnetic form factor, G E /G M , can be extracted in elastic electron-proton scattering by measuring either cross sections, beam-target asymmetry or recoil polarization. Separate determinations of G E /G M by cross sections and recoil polarization observables disagree for Q 2 > 1 (GeV/c) 2 . Measurement by a third technique might uncover an unknown systematic error in either of the previous measurements. The beam-target asymmetry has been measured for elastic electron-proton scattering at Q 2 = 1.51 (GeV/c) 2 for target spin orientation aligned perpendicular to the beam momentum direction. This is the largest Q 2 at which G E /G M has been determined by a beam-target asymmetry experiment. The result, μG E /G M = 0.884 +/- 0.027 +/- 0.029, is compared to previous world data

Tsunami hazard for the city of Catania, eastern Sicily, Italy, assessed by means of Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Tonini

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Eastern Sicily is one of the coastal areas most exposed to earthquakes and tsunamis in Italy. The city of Catania that developed between the eastern base of Etna volcano and the Ionian Sea is, together with the neighbour coastal belt, under the strong menace of tsunamis. This paper addresses the estimation of the tsunami hazard for the city of Catania by using the technique of the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA and is focused on a target area including the Catania harbour and the beach called La Plaia where many human activities develop and many important structures are present. The aim of the work is to provide a detailed tsunami hazard analysis, firstly by building scenarios that are proposed on the basis of tectonic considerations and of the largest historical events that hit the city in the past, and then by combining all the information deriving from single scenarios into a unique aggregated scenario that can be viewed as the worst virtual scenario. Scenarios have been calculated by means of numerical simulations on computational grids of different resolutions, passing from 3 km on a regional scale to 40 m in the target area. La Plaia beach results to be the area most exposed to tsunami inundation, with inland penetration up to hundreds of meters. The harbour turns out to be more exposed to tsunami waves with low frequencies: in particular, it is found that the major contribution to the hazard in the harbour is due to a tsunami from a remote source, which propagates with much longer periods than tsunamis from local sources. This work has been performed in the framework of the EU-funded project SCHEMA.

HOXA1 and TALE proteins display cross-regulatory interactions and form a combinatorial binding code on HOXA1 targets.

Science.gov (United States)

De Kumar, Bony; Parker, Hugo J; Paulson, Ariel; Parrish, Mark E; Pushel, Irina; Singh, Narendra Pratap; Zhang, Ying; Slaughter, Brian D; Unruh, Jay R; Florens, Laurence; Zeitlinger, Julia; Krumlauf, Robb

2017-09-01

Hoxa1 has diverse functional roles in differentiation and development. We identify and characterize properties of regions bound by HOXA1 on a genome-wide basis in differentiating mouse ES cells. HOXA1-bound regions are enriched for clusters of consensus binding motifs for HOX, PBX, and MEIS, and many display co-occupancy of PBX and MEIS. PBX and MEIS are members of the TALE family and genome-wide analysis of multiple TALE members (PBX, MEIS, TGIF, PREP1, and PREP2) shows that nearly all HOXA1 targets display occupancy of one or more TALE members. The combinatorial binding patterns of TALE proteins define distinct classes of HOXA1 targets, which may create functional diversity. Transgenic reporter assays in zebrafish confirm enhancer activities for many HOXA1-bound regions and the importance of HOX-PBX and TGIF motifs for their regulation. Proteomic analyses show that HOXA1 physically interacts on chromatin with PBX, MEIS, and PREP family members, but not with TGIF, suggesting that TGIF may have an independent input into HOXA1-bound regions. Therefore, TALE proteins appear to represent a wide repertoire of HOX cofactors, which may coregulate enhancers through distinct mechanisms. We also discover extensive auto- and cross-regulatory interactions among the Hoxa1 and TALE genes, indicating that the specificity of HOXA1 during development may be regulated though a complex cross-regulatory network of HOXA1 and TALE proteins. This study provides new insight into a regulatory network involving combinatorial interactions between HOXA1 and TALE proteins. © 2017 De Kumar et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Automatic target detection using binary template matching

Science.gov (United States)

Jun, Dong-San; Sun, Sun-Gu; Park, HyunWook

2005-03-01

This paper presents a new automatic target detection (ATD) algorithm to detect targets such as battle tanks and armored personal carriers in ground-to-ground scenarios. Whereas most ATD algorithms were developed for forward-looking infrared (FLIR) images, we have developed an ATD algorithm for charge-coupled device (CCD) images, which have superior quality to FLIR images in daylight. The proposed algorithm uses fast binary template matching with an adaptive binarization, which is robust to various light conditions in CCD images and saves computation time. Experimental results show that the proposed method has good detection performance.

A helium gas scintillator active target for photoreaction measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Al Jebali, Ramsey; Annand, John R.M.; Buchanan, Emma; Gardner, Simon; Hamilton, David J.; Livingston, Kenneth; McGeorge, John C.; MacGregor, Ian J.D.; MacRae, Roderick; Reiter, Andreas J.H.; Rosner, Guenther; Sokhan, Daria; Strandberg, Bruno [University of Glasgow, School of Physics and Astronomy, Glasgow, Scotland (United Kingdom); Adler, Jan-Olof; Fissum, Kevin; Schroeder, Bent [University of Lund, Department of Physics, Lund (Sweden); Akkurt, Iskender [Sueleyman Demirel University, Fen-Edebiyat Faculty, Isparta (Turkey); Brudvik, Jason; Hansen, Kurt; Isaksson, Lennart; Lundin, Magnus [MAX IV Laboratory, PO Box 118, Lund (Sweden); Middleton, Duncan G. [Universitaet Tuebingen, Kepler Centre for Astro and Particle Physics, Physikalisches Institut, Tuebingen (Germany); Sjoegren, Johan [University of Glasgow, School of Physics and Astronomy, Glasgow, Scotland (United Kingdom); MAX IV Laboratory, PO Box 118, Lund (Sweden)

2015-10-15

A multi-cell He gas scintillator active target, designed for the measurement of photoreaction cross sections, is described. The target has four main chambers, giving an overall thickness of 0.103 g/cm{sup 3} at an operating pressure of 2 MPa. Scintillations are read out by photomultiplier tubes and the addition of small amounts of N{sub 2} to the He, to shift the scintillation emission from UV to visible, is discussed. First results of measurements at the MAX IV Laboratory tagged-photon facility show that the target has a timing resolution of around 1 ns and can cope well with a high-flux photon beam. The determination of reaction cross sections from target yields relies on a Monte Carlo simulation, which considers scintillation light transport, photodisintegration processes in {sup 4}He, background photon interactions in target windows and interactions of the reaction-product particles in the gas and target container. The predictions of this simulation are compared to the measured target response. (orig.)

Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

1978-03-01

This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

MIV Project: Mission scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

1997-01-01

Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

2003-01-01

The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

Double Bounce Component in Cross-Polarimetric SAR from a New Scattering Target Decomposition

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Sang-Hoon; Wdowinski, Shimon

2013-08-01

Common vegetation scattering theories assume that the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) cross-polarization (cross-pol) signal represents solely volume scattering. We found this assumption incorrect based on SAR phase measurements acquired over the south Florida Everglades wetlands indicating that the cross-pol radar signal often samples the water surface beneath the vegetation. Based on these new observations, we propose that the cross-pol measurement consists of both volume scattering and double bounce components. The simplest multi-bounce scattering mechanism that generates cross-pol signal occurs by rotated dihedrals. Thus, we use the rotated dihedral mechanism with probability density function to revise some of the vegetation scattering theories and develop a three- component decomposition algorithm with single bounce, double bounce from both co-pol and cross-pol, and volume scattering components. We applied the new decomposition analysis to both urban and rural environments using Radarsat-2 quad-pol datasets. The decomposition of the San Francisco's urban area shows higher double bounce scattering and reduced volume scattering compared to other common three-component decomposition. The decomposition of the rural Everglades area shows that the relations between volume and cross-pol double bounce depend on the vegetation density. The new decomposition can be useful to better understand vegetation scattering behavior over the various surfaces and the estimation of above ground biomass using SAR observations.

Multi-Scenario Use Case based Demonstration of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework Webtool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil G.; Mylrea, Michael E.; Gervais, Easton L.; Bhadra, Sraddhanjoli

2017-11-27

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the cybersecurity and software capabilities of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework (BCF) webtool. The webtool is designed based on BCF document and existing NIST standards. It’s capabilities and features are depicted through a building usecase with four different investment scenarios geared towards improving the cybersecurity posture of the building. BCF webtool also facilitates implementation of the goals outlined in Presidential Executive Order (EO) on Strengthening the Cybersecurity of Federal Networks and Critical Infrastructure (May 2017. In realization of the EO goals, BCF includes five core elements: Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond, and Recover, to help determine various policy and process level vulnerabilities and provide mitigation strategies. With the BCF webtool, an organization can perform a cybersecurity self-assessment; determine the current cybersecurity posture; define investment based goals to achieve a target state; connect the cybersecurity posture with business processes, functions, and continuity; and finally, develop plans to answer critical organizational cybersecurity questions. In this paper, the webtool and its core capabilities are depicted by performing an extensive comparative assessment over four different scenarios.

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

CO2 mitigation scenarios in China's road transport sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Can; Cai, Wenjia; Lu, Xuedu; Chen, Jining

2007-01-01

China is the world's second largest greenhouse gas emitter, and emissions from the road transport sector represent one of the fastest growing GHG sources in China. Taking previous research on China's projected future vehicle ownership and future CO 2 emissions in the transport sector as a starting point, this paper reviews all recent environmental policies relating to the automobile industry and employs a scenario analysis to estimate different emissions inventories for different development strategies. The new policy scenario considers all possible mitigation options available to the road transport sector from a bottom up perspective and examines the effects for fuel efficiency improvement and the cost of these mitigation options - vehicle technology improvement, bus rapid transit system and fuel switching, through which the carbon dioxide emissions reduction potential is estimated. Not only does this paper indicate that a large emissions reduction potential exists in China's road transport sector, but it implies that vehicle technology improvement, especially engine technology is likely to be the most effective means to meet emissions reduction targets. This paper concludes by identifying key barriers to implementing those options in China and deduces the technical, financial and institutional aspects of the demand in China for national capacity building and international aid in order to achieve the emissions reduction goals

CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

2010-01-01

The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

Scenarios of future energy intensities