Review of Research on Credit Risk Management for Rural Credit Cooperatives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Song

2017-03-01

Full Text Available With the rapid development of rural micro-credit, whether the qagriculture, rural areas and farmersq problems have been effectively solved, whether the credit risk has been effectively controlled, these have become the focus of our attention to the rural economic environment. The main content of this paper contains four aspects: the classification and characteristics of credit risk, the problems and factors of credit risk, the model and evaluation of credit risk, the countermeasures and suggestions of credit risk. This paper reviews the research of credit risk management for rural credit cooperatives from the above four aspects, and makes a brief summary.

Modern bank's credit risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Šabović Šerif

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Credit risk is the most important risk banks have to face with. It occurs due to an obligation created because of debtors' capital and interest rate nonpayment. Debtors obligations non-fulfilment may lead to great losses and insolvency in bank's business. Credit risk is the crucial reason of bank's insolvency. Over 80% of bank's balance sheet is exposed to credit risk.

A neural network model for credit risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Khashman, Adnan

2009-08-01

Credit scoring is one of the key analytical techniques in credit risk evaluation which has been an active research area in financial risk management. This paper presents a credit risk evaluation system that uses a neural network model based on the back propagation learning algorithm. We train and implement the neural network to decide whether to approve or reject a credit application, using seven learning schemes and real world credit applications from the Australian credit approval datasets. A comparison of the system performance under the different learning schemes is provided, furthermore, we compare the performance of two neural networks; with one and two hidden layers following the ideal learning scheme. Experimental results suggest that neural networks can be effectively used in automatic processing of credit applications.

Credit Risk Research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zamore, Stephen; Ohene Djan, Kwame; Alon, Ilan

2018-01-01

This article provides a comprehensive review of scholarly research on credit risk measurement during the last 57 years applying bibliometric citation analysis and elaborates an agenda for future research. The bibliography is compiled using the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web...... of Science (WOS) database and includes all articles with citations over the period 1960–2016. Specifically, the review is carried out using 1695 articles across 72 countries published in 442 journals by 2928 authors. The findings suggest that credit risk research is multifaceted and can be classified...... into six streams: (1) defaultable security pricing, (2) default intensity modeling, (3) comparative analysis of credit models, (4) comparative analysis of credit markets, (5) credit default swap (CDS) pricing, and (6) loan loss provisions. The article contributes through synthesizing and identifying...

Credit derivatives and risk management

OpenAIRE

Michael S. Gibson

2007-01-01

The striking growth of credit derivatives suggests that market participants find them to be useful tools for risk management. I illustrate the value of credit derivatives with three examples. A commercial bank can use credit derivatives to manage the risk of its loan portfolio. An investment bank can use credit derivatives to manage the risks it incurs when underwriting securities. An investor, such as an insurance company, asset manager, or hedge fund, can use credit derivatives to align its...

Pricing Chinese Convertible Bonds with Dynamic Credit Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available To price convertible bonds more precisely, least squares Monte Carlo (LSM method is used in this paper for its advantage in handling the dependence of derivatives on the path, and dynamic credit risk is used to replace the fixed one to make the value of convertible bonds reflect the real credit risk. In the empirical study, we price convertible bonds based on static credit risk and dynamic credit risk, respectively. Empirical results indicate that the ICBC convertible bond has been overpriced, resulting from the underestimation of credit risk. In addition, when there is an issue of dividend, the conversion price will change in China's convertible bonds, while it does not change in the international convertible bonds. So we also empirically study the difference between the convertible bond's prices by assuming whether the conversion price changes or not.

THE CREDIT AND CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT DURING THE CRISIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chitan Gheorghe

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Considering the importance of credit risk management to ensure the financial system stability,the paper presents financial and real sector interaction highlighting that credit growth based on increase of creditdemand, of income, of assets prices, of currency availability, the interest rate differential between countries andrelaxation of regulatory framework, leaves banks more vulnerable to subsequent downturn in economic activity andasset prices. It also outlines the steps taken or those I think that should be implemented in terms of improving creditrisk management, implementation of regulatory measures to limit credit expansion, enforcing the regulatoryrequirements for covering the expected and unexpected losses, introduction of new surveillance tools aimed to leadto a more resilient financial system.

12 CFR 704.6 - Credit risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit risk management. 704.6 Section 704.6... CREDIT UNIONS § 704.6 Credit risk management. (a) Policies. A corporate credit union must operate according to a credit risk management policy that is commensurate with the investment risks and activities...

A Macroeconomic Model of Credit Risk in Uruguay

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel Illanes

Full Text Available In this paper we evaluate credit risk of the economy as a whole, aiming at the study of the financial stability. This analysis uses as proxy the credit granted by the banking system. We use a non-linear parametric model based on Merton's structural framework for the analysis of the risk associated to a loan portfolio. In this model, default occurs when the return of an economic agent falls under certain threshold which depends on different macroeconomic variables. We use this model to assess the credit risk module in stress tests for the local banking system. We also estimate the "elasticities" of credit categories correspondig to corporate credit and consumer credit, both in national currency and american dollars. We obtain the parameters for the model using maximum likelihood, where the likelihood function contains a random latent factor which is assumed to follow a normal distribution.

Companies Credit Risk Assessment Methods for Investment Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dovilė Peškauskaitė

2017-06-01

Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.

THE MANAGEMENT OF CREDIT RISK ACCORDING TO INTERNAL RATINGS- BASED APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BOLOCAN DRAGOS-MIHAIL

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The internal ratings based approach (IRB Approach was created as part of Basel II replacing the original Basle Accord of 1988 (Basle I in an effort to create a better framework for regulating bank capital. This paper covers the methodology and components of the IRB Approach used to determine capital requirements for credit risk. Such an approach, which relies heavily upon a banks internal assessment of its counterparties and exposures, can secure two key objectives consistent with those which support the wider review of The New Basel Capital Accord.. IRB approach should promote safety and soundness in the financial system and, consistent with providing incentive compatibility, that the structure and requirements of the IRB approach do not impinge upon or undermine banks well-established lending and credit risk management practices

Managing sovereign credit risk in bond portfolios

OpenAIRE

Bruder, Benjamin; Hereil, Pierre; Roncalli, Thierry

2011-01-01

With the recent development of the European debt crisis, traditional index bond management has been severely called into question. We focus here on the risk issues raised by the classical market-capitalization weighting scheme. We propose an approach to properly measure sovereign credit risk in a fixed-income portfolio. For that, we assume that CDS spreads follow a SABR process and we derive a sovereign credit risk measure based on CDS spreads and duration of portfolio bonds. We then consider...

Using Cutting-Edge Tree-Based Stochastic Models to Predict Credit Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khaled Halteh

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Credit risk is a critical issue that affects banks and companies on a global scale. Possessing the ability to accurately predict the level of credit risk has the potential to help the lender and borrower. This is achieved by alleviating the number of loans provided to borrowers with poor financial health, thereby reducing the number of failed businesses, and, in effect, preventing economies from collapsing. This paper uses state-of-the-art stochastic models, namely: Decision trees, random forests, and stochastic gradient boosting to add to the current literature on credit-risk modelling. The Australian mining industry has been selected to test our methodology. Mining in Australia generates around $138 billion annually, making up more than half of the total goods and services. This paper uses publicly-available financial data from 750 risky and not risky Australian mining companies as variables in our models. Our results indicate that stochastic gradient boosting was the superior model at correctly classifying the good and bad credit-rated companies within the mining sector. Our model showed that ‘Property, Plant, & Equipment (PPE turnover’, ‘Invested Capital Turnover’, and ‘Price over Earnings Ratio (PER’ were the variables with the best explanatory power pertaining to predicting credit risk in the Australian mining sector.

Evaluation of portfolio credit risk based on survival analysis for progressive censored data

Science.gov (United States)

Jaber, Jamil J.; Ismail, Noriszura; Ramli, Siti Norafidah Mohd

2017-04-01

In credit risk management, the Basel committee provides a choice of three approaches to the financial institutions for calculating the required capital: the standardized approach, the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, and the Advanced IRB approach. The IRB approach is usually preferred compared to the standard approach due to its higher accuracy and lower capital charges. This paper use several parametric models (Exponential, log-normal, Gamma, Weibull, Log-logistic, Gompertz) to evaluate the credit risk of the corporate portfolio in the Jordanian banks based on the monthly sample collected from January 2010 to December 2015. The best model is selected using several goodness-of-fit criteria (MSE, AIC, BIC). The results indicate that the Gompertz distribution is the best model parametric model for the data.

76 FR 24089 - Credit Risk Retention

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-29

... 17 CFR Part 246 Department of Housing and Urban Development 24 CFR Part 267 Credit Risk Retention... 2501-AD53 Credit Risk Retention AGENCIES: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Treasury (OCC..., Commission, FHFA, and HUD (the Agencies) are proposing rules to implement the credit risk retention...

76 FR 34010 - Credit Risk Retention

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-10

... 2501-AD53 Credit Risk Retention AGENCIES: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Treasury (OCC... credit risk retention requirements of section 15G of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as added by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (``Credit Risk NPR'' or ``proposed rule...

A Network Model of Credit Risk Contagion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ting-Qiang Chen

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A network model of credit risk contagion is presented, in which the effect of behaviors of credit risk holders and the financial market regulators and the network structure are considered. By introducing the stochastic dominance theory, we discussed, respectively, the effect mechanisms of the degree of individual relationship, individual attitude to credit risk contagion, the individual ability to resist credit risk contagion, the monitoring strength of the financial market regulators, and the network structure on credit risk contagion. Then some derived and proofed propositions were verified through numerical simulations.

The impact of credit risk assessment on credit activity of commercial banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ljubić Marijana

2015-01-01

Full Text Available As banks have great social responsibility and are a subject to a specific and extensive regulations, one of the being Basel, the authors of this paper focus on the impact of credit risk assessment on credit activity of commercial banks. The authors of this paper provide a standard for risk management and an insight into directions on how to manage credit risk in the most efficient way and how to assess credit rating of a borrower.

12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

A relative risk comparison of criticality control strategies based on fresh fuel and burnup credit design bases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanders, T.L.

1989-01-01

The fresh fuel design basis provides some margin of safety, i.e., criticality safety is almost independent of loading operations if fuel designs do not change significantly over the next 40 years. However, the design basis enrichment for future nuclear fuel will most likely vary with time. As a result, it cannot be guaranteed that the perceived passivity of the concept will be maintained over the life cycle of a future cask system. Several options are available to ensure that the reliability of a burnup credit system is comparable to or greater than that of a system based on a fresh fuel assumption. Criticality safety and control reliability could increase with burnup credit implementation. The safety of a burnup credit system could be comparable to that for a system based on the fresh fuel assumption. A burnup credit philosophy could be implemented without any cost-benefit tradeoff. A burnup credit design basis could result in a significant reduction in total system risk as well as economic benefits. These reductions occur primarily as a result of increased cask capacities and, thus, fewer shipments. Fewer shipments also result in fewer operations over the useful life of a cask, and opportunities for error decrease. The system concept can be designed such that only benefits occur. These benefits could include enhanced criticality safety and the overall reliability of cask operations, as well as system risk and economic benefits. Thus, burnup credit should be available as an alternative for the criticality design of spent fuel shipping casks

APPLICATION OF KMV MODEL TO ASSESS CREDIT RISK OF INDIVIDUAL ENTREPRENEURS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taishin A. A.

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The problem of credit risk is relevant for the bank. The purpose of scientific research - to develop a technique of adaptation and application of the model for the evaluation risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs. The proposed method of evaluation credit risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs has many advantages. Automation of calculations, based on plausible assumptions, will significantly reduce the time to process the customer's request. The article contains analysis of the KMV model based on the up-to-date results of the theory. The author investigates the possibility of modification, generalization of the model and practical implementation of the risk estimate of default entrepreneur KMV model using software package Visual Basic for Application on the example Management reporting of the entrepreneur. Showing the features of its application in the light of the modern achievements in the theory and practice of financial analysis. In this article suggested the finished result of evaluation risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs, for risk assessment offered more precise recommendations for the practical use of KMV as a basic tool.

IMPLICATIONS OF CREDIT RISK TRANSFER ON BANK PERFORMANCES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victoria COCIUG

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The impact of the financial crisis has demonstrated the fragility of the banking sector and the need to implement new technologies that would allow not only insurance against the most important credit risk - credit risk, but development of lending segment. In such conditions, transfer of credit risk is an efficient and actual way to diversify the banks exposure for credit risk by the presence of those who are willing to take on some of this risk. Taking of credit risk can be achieved through credit derivatives, securitization and sale of loans, being selected the most advantageous technique for the bank. The current situation of the national banking sector requires solving the problem of bad loans, which, unfortunately, are increasing, by implementing new techniques for credit risk management according with EU directives.

Credit networks and systemic risk of Chinese local financing platforms: Too central or too big to fail?. -based on different credit correlations using hierarchical methods

Science.gov (United States)

He, Fang; Chen, Xi

2016-11-01

The accelerating accumulation and risk concentration of Chinese local financing platforms debts have attracted wide attention throughout the world. Due to the network of financial exposures among institutions, the failure of several platforms or regions of systemic importance will probably trigger systemic risk and destabilize the financial system. However, the complex network of credit relationships in Chinese local financing platforms at the state level remains unknown. To fill this gap, we presented the first complex networks and hierarchical cluster analysis of the credit market of Chinese local financing platforms using the ;bottom up; method from firm-level data. Based on balance-sheet channel, we analyzed the topology and taxonomy by applying the analysis paradigm of subdominant ultra-metric space to an empirical data in 2013. It is remarked that we chose to extract the network of co-financed financing platforms in order to evaluate the effect of risk contagion from platforms to bank system. We used the new credit similarity measure by combining the factor of connectivity and size, to extract minimal spanning trees (MSTs) and hierarchical trees (HTs). We found that: (1) the degree distributions of credit correlation backbone structure of Chinese local financing platforms are fat tailed, and the structure is unstable with respect to targeted failures; (2) the backbone is highly hierarchical, and largely explained by the geographic region; (3) the credit correlation backbone structure based on connectivity and size is significantly heterogeneous; (4) key platforms and regions of systemic importance, and contagion path of systemic risk are obtained, which are contributed to preventing systemic risk and regional risk of Chinese local financing platforms and preserving financial stability under the framework of macro prudential supervision. Our approach of credit similarity measure provides a means of recognizing ;systemically important; institutions and regions

Models for assessing and managing credit risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neogradi Slađana

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

49 CFR 260.15 - Credit risk premium.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium. 260.15 Section 260.15... REHABILITATION AND IMPROVEMENT FINANCING PROGRAM Overview § 260.15 Credit risk premium. (a) Where available... pay to the Administrator a Credit Risk Premium adequate to cover that portion of the subsidy cost not...

CONTINGENCIES FOR MEASUREMENT OF THE CREDIT RISK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marinela BARBULESCU

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Global Financial Crisis, which affected various banks, some of them very important banks, highlighted the importance of an accurate credit risk measurement in order to be able to overcome it. There are a variety of such credit risk measurement models, so we can say that banks face a real dilemma when having to choose the most appropriate one. The aim of this paper is to examine the most popular methods used to measure the credit risk and to identify the strengths and the weaknesses of each one of it. The research was accomplished from a double perspective, in which the conceptual methodological approach is correlated to a variety of references to practical actions aiming the measurement and the prevention of credit risk. The study includes the presentation of the objectives of credit risk analysis, the most appropriate moments for doing such an analysis, the steps that have to be done in order to measure the credit risk, the errors that can overcome in the credit risk measurement system, generated by the misclassifications of the studied company, and the presentation of the specific information of financial creditors. The findings expressed in this paper were mainly the result of a qualitative analysis which showed that there is no best model for credit risk measurement, each one having both strengths and weaknesses, some providing a comprehensive analysis of the individual customer’s financial strength others allowing banks permanently monitor fluctuating default risk and identify the possibly problems at an early stage.

Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hassan Ghodrati

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Measuring different risk factors such as credit risk in banking industry has been an interesting area of studies. The artificial neural network is a nonparametric method developed to succeed for measuring credit risk and this method is applied to measure the credit risk. This research’s neural network follows back propagation paradigm, which enables it to use historical data for predicting future values with very good out of sample fitting. Macroeconomic variables including GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, stock price index, and M2 are used to forecast credit risk for two Iranian banks; namely Saderat and Sarmayeh over the period 2007-2011. Research data are being tested for ADF and Causality Granger tests before entering the ANN to achieve the best lag structure for the research model. MSE and R values for the developed ANN in this research respectively are 86×〖10〗^(-4 and 0.9885, respectively. The results showed that ANN was able to predict banks’ credit risk with low error. Sensibility analyses which has accomplished on this research’s ANN corroborates that M2 has the highest effect on the ANN’s credit risk and should be considered as an additional leading indicator by Iran’s banking authorities. These matters confirm validation of macroeconomic notions in Iran’s credit systematic risk.

25 CFR 140.23 - Credit at trader's risk.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Credit at trader's risk. 140.23 Section 140.23 Indians....23 Credit at trader's risk. Credit given Indians will be at the trader's own risk, as no assistance... accept pawns or pledges of personal property by Indians to obtain credit or loans. ...

Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

OpenAIRE

Wehrspohn, Uwe

2002-01-01

An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

Credit-proofing fundamentals for a solid credit policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lydiatt, I. [KeySpan Energy Canada, Calgary, AB (Canada)

2003-07-01

This Power Point presentation presented the basics of a credit policy with reference to corporate objectives, governance, credit definitions, subjective/objective elements, quantification of full risk, management, monitoring, reporting and gate-keeping processes. Options for a credit policy were described as being approval authority grids, confidentiality issues, credit scoring, corporate risk levels, follow-up collection calling, and procedures on unapproved exposures. Recommendations for setting risk and credit limits were also presented with a note emphasizing that in the past 6 months credit evaluation processes have had to deal with the media risk, a new risk that has not been seen before. This risk can be addressed by careful monitoring of stock prices. The paper also presented recommendations for what to look for as indicators and how to deal with risk in volatile price periods. Credit tools for volatile times were described. 1 tab.

Credit-proofing fundamentals for a solid credit policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lydiatt, I.

2003-01-01

This Power Point presentation presented the basics of a credit policy with reference to corporate objectives, governance, credit definitions, subjective/objective elements, quantification of full risk, management, monitoring, reporting and gate-keeping processes. Options for a credit policy were described as being approval authority grids, confidentiality issues, credit scoring, corporate risk levels, follow-up collection calling, and procedures on unapproved exposures. Recommendations for setting risk and credit limits were also presented with a note emphasizing that in the past 6 months credit evaluation processes have had to deal with the media risk, a new risk that has not been seen before. This risk can be addressed by careful monitoring of stock prices. The paper also presented recommendations for what to look for as indicators and how to deal with risk in volatile price periods. Credit tools for volatile times were described. 1 tab

Systematic and Idiosyncratic Default Risk in Synthetic Credit Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Feldhütter, Peter; Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

2012-01-01

We present a new estimation approach that allows us to extract from spreads in synthetic credit markets the contribution of systematic and idiosyncratic default risk to total default risk. Using an extensive dataset of 90,600 credit default swap and collateralized debt obligation (CDO) tranche...... spreads on the North American Investment Grade CDX index, we conduct an empirical analysis of an intensity-based model for correlated defaults. Our results show that systematic default risk is an explosive process with low volatility, while idiosyncratic default risk is more volatile but less explosive...

Credit Rationing Effects of Credit Value-at-Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.F. Slijkerman; D.J.C. Smant (David); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

2004-01-01

textabstractBanks provide risky loans to firms which have superior information regarding the quality of their projects. Due to asymmetric information the banks face the risk of adverse selection. Credit Value-at-Risk (CVaR) regulation counters the problem of low quality, i.e. high risk, loans and

Risk, Credit, and Insurance in Peru: Field Experimental Evidence

OpenAIRE

Galarza, Francisco

2009-01-01

This paper reports the results of behavioral economic experiments conducted in Peru to examine the relationship amongst risk preferences, loan take-up, and insurance purchase decisions. This area-based yield insurance can help reduce people's vulnerability to large scale covariate shocks, and can also lower the loan default probability under extreme negative covariate shocks. In a context of collateralized formal credit markets, we provide suggestive evidence that insurance may help reduce th...

Credit risk management in the power sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, D.

2002-01-01

Deregulation of the electric power industry has the potential to put power businesses at market risk particularly when the value of an asset or liability will change with market movements. Market risk gives rise to credit risk where a contract cannot be fulfilled. This presentation describes how credit risks can be identified and measured. Most practitioners use some variant of value-at-risk (VAR) technology for measuring market risk. Under this approach, risk is determined by the volatility implied by the market. Volatility of electricity prices and natural gas prices has increased significantly in Alberta in recent years. The consequence is an increase in both market and credit risk. The author described the difference between the two risks and their significance. An overview of credit risk management with derivatives, an over-the counter contract, was also presented. The author also discusses issue of protection buyers in the event of a failed contract. 9 figs

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

Science.gov (United States)

Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E

2014-12-02

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

Credit risk identification and suggestions of electricity market

Science.gov (United States)

He, Chuan; Wang, Haichao; Chen, Zhongyuan; Hao, Yuxing; Jiang, Hailong; Qian, Hanhan; Wang, Meibao

2018-03-01

The power industry has a long history of credit problems, and the power industry has credit problems such as power users defaulting on electricity bills before the new electricity reform. With the reform of the power system, the credit problems in the power industry will be more complicated. How to effectively avoid the risk factors existing in the course of market operation and how to safeguard the fairness and standardization of market operation is an urgent problem to be solved. This paper first describes the credit risk in power market, and analyzes the components of credit risk identification in power market, puts forward suggestions on power market risk management.

Credit Risk Management in Chinese Banking Industry

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Lei

2006-01-01

Abstract Credit risk is by far the most important risk faced by banks, and it influences the bank profitability and its long-term operation significantly. Well management on credit risk can be a competitive advantage for banks in the competitive banking industry. Chinese banks suffer from serious financial fragility manifested by high proportions of NPLs and low capital adequacy ratios (Bonin and Huang, 2001). This dissertation examines the real credit performance of Chinese banks ba...

Study on the Impact of the Private Credit Excess on the Credit Risk under the Massive Capital Inflows Risk under the Massive Capital Inflows

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jong-Hee Kim

2016-09-01

Full Text Available By examining the relationship between private credit growth and the possibility of credit risk while focusing on international capital in 21 countries over the period 2000:1Q-2015:2Q, this paper shows that the impact of private credit growth on credit risk is apparent under the high ratio of capital inflows, and its impact on credit risk in the seven Asian countries is even stronger. And the possibility of credit risk caused by private credit is mainly coming from portfolio inflows rather than direct inflows. Finally, portfolio inflows strengthen the positive relationship between credit excess and credit risk in Asian countries, and this trend is seen more in these after the global financial crisis. Taken together, the stronger positive relationship between credit excess and credit risk can be strengthen under the massive portfolio inflows in particular in the seven Asian countries such as Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.

77 FR 53059 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-30

...'' framework that includes (1) Risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk, and operational... default and credit quality migration risk for non-securitization credit products. With respect to... securitization positions, the revisions assign a specific risk- weighting factor based on the credit rating of a...

49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

Sovereign Credit Risk, Liquidity and ECB Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pelizzon, Loriana; Subrahmanyam, Marti G.; Tomio, Davide

This paper explores the interaction between credit risk and liquidity, in the context of the intervention by the European Central Bank (ECB), during the Euro-zone crisis. The laboratory for our investigation is the Italian sovereign bond market, the largest in the Euro-zone. We use a unique data...... between changes in Italian sovereign credit risk and liquidity in the secondary bond market, conditional on the level of credit risk, measured by the Italian sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spread. We demonstrate the existence of a threshold of 500 basis points (bp) in the CDS spread, above which...... there is a structural change in this relationship. Other global systemic factors also a ffect market liquidity, but the speci c credit risk of primary dealers plays only a modest role in a ffecting market liquidity, especially under conditions of stress. Moreover, the data indicate that there is a clear structural...

Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Liu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

12 CFR 932.4 - Credit risk capital requirement.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit risk capital requirement. 932.4 Section... CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.4 Credit risk capital requirement. (a) General requirement. Each Bank's credit risk capital requirement shall be equal to the sum of the Bank's...

CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE COMMERCIAL BANKS IN ROMANIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihaela SUDACEVSCHI

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Credit risk is one of the main risks faced by a bank. This kind of risk is generated by the crediting activity of the clients. To manage the credit risk, banks should identify the sources of the risk and to monitor their exposures. These activities mean a better knowledge of the existing and potential clients and their financial situations, by implementing new scoring methods. Also, to avoid the credit risk or to reduce losses, the banks could increase the value of guarantees required in regular credit activities, their periodically reassessment and the periodical analysis of the ability of customers to generate cash flows (for corporate clients and get constant income (for retail customers to provide repayment of credits. This paper aims to prevent and to analyze several measures of credit risk management and it assume that banks on the Romanian banking market and to identify some indices used for customers analysis.

Credit risk in emerging markets Peruvian listed company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kurt Burneo Farfan

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to introduce the importance of the banking credit risk, the main elements that conform it and the main alternatives that are offered to access to a loan as well as a description of its measurement and management in the sector. There will be a general explanation of credit risk and the main parties involved in it. As the topic is developed it is going to be analyzed the lending process carried out by the banks as well as the quantitative and qualitative elements taken into account when taking a credit decision (The 5C’s of credit, credit scoring and models for quantification of losses for instance. Another thing to considerate is that Credit risk arises whenever a borrower is expecting to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. Also, the investors have the access for the information of a client and they are compensated for assuming credit risk by way of interest payments from the borrower or issuer of a debt obligation and the credit risk is a useful tool for the finance management. The Enterprise risk management in Peru changed in 2015 because the local regulator is in process to review the norm, including some aspects of corporate governance; these changes are not included in this research.

The Cross-Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friewald, Nils; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

Structural models a la Merton (1974) imply that rms' risk premia in equity and credit markets are related. We explore this relation, using the joint crosssection of stock returns and risk premia estimated from forward credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Consistent with structural models, we nd...... that rms' equity returns and Sharpe ratios increase with estimated credit risk premia and that the returns of buying high and selling low credit risk premium rms cannot be explained by traditional risk factors. Credit risk premia contain equity-relevant information neither captured by risk-neutral nor...

Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk

Science.gov (United States)

Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

2014-11-01

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

2014-11-04

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

Assessment of Credit Risk Approaches in Relation with Competitiveness Increase of the Banking Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cipovová Eva

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The article is focused on a presentation and analysis of selected methods of credit risk management in relation with competitiveness increase of the banking sector. The article is defined credit risk approaches under the Basel III gradually. Aim of this contribution constitutes various methods of credit risk management and effects of their usage on regulatory capital amount in respect of corporate exposures. Optimal equity amount in relation to the risk portfolio presents an essential prerequisite of performance and competitiveness growth of commercial banks. Gradually capital requirements using Standardized Approach and Internal Based Approach in a case of used and unused techniques of credit risk reduce has been quantified. We presume that sophisticated approach means significant saving for bank’s equity which increases competitiveness of banking sector also. Within the article, quantification of capital savings in case of Standardized (with and without assigned external ratings and Foundation Internal Based Approach at the selected credit portfolio has been effected.

Credit Risk Management. A study on risk integration in the bank lending process.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sleddens, Linda Elsa Wilhelmina

2011-01-01

Credit risk management has been a topic much written about in the last decade. Substantial credit risk losses can undermine the stability of the bank. Both banks and national bank supervisors have realized the need to invest in credit risk management. Partly driven by regulations such as the Basel

Assessing the Credit Risk of Corporate Bonds Based on Factor Analysis and Logistic Regress Analysis Techniques: Evidence from New Energy Enterprises in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuanxin Liu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In recent years, new energy sources have ushered in tremendous opportunities for development. The difficulties to finance new energy enterprises (NEEs can be estimated through issuing corporate bonds. However, there are few scientific and reasonable methods to assess the credit risk of NEE bonds, which is not conducive to the healthy development of NEEs. Based on this, this paper analyzes the advantages and risks of NEEs issuing bonds and the main factors affecting the credit risk of NEE bonds, constructs a hybrid model for assessing the credit risk of NEE bonds based on factor analysis and logistic regress analysis techniques, and verifies the applicability and effectiveness of the model employing relevant data from 46 Chinese NEEs. The results show that the main factors affecting the credit risk of NEE bonds are internal factors involving the company’s profitability, solvency, operational ability, growth potential, asset structure and viability, and external factors including macroeconomic environment and energy policy support. Based on the empirical results and the exact situation of China’s NEE bonds, this article finally puts forward several targeted recommendations.

Value of credit bureau reports

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brković Milan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available An efficient system of credit information sharing contributes to solving the problem of information asymmetry on the credit and financial markets in general. The consequences of the global economic and financial crisis revealed an increasing demand for reliable information and data which could close the existing gap in their insufficiency, misuse or inadequate analytical value for the economic and financial policy makers. In that sense, more attention is directed to the usefulness of credit information sharing and the practical value of information and data contained in credit bureau reports for the purposes of achieving the overall economic policy goals. The fulfillment of that role depends mostly on the credit information sharing system and its characteristics, participants, and procedures. A credit bureau report in the best possible manner reflects all advantages and disadvantages of the established credit information exchange system in terms of its analytical value for the purposes of efficient macroeconomic and macrofinancial policies.

12 CFR 955.3 - Required credit risk-sharing structure.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Required credit risk-sharing structure. 955.3...-BALANCE SHEET ITEMS ACQUIRED MEMBER ASSETS § 955.3 Required credit risk-sharing structure. (a... conducting a rating review of the asset or pool of assets in a securitization transaction. (b) Credit risk...

Using non-performing loan ratios as default rates in the estimation of credit losses and macroeconomic credit risk stress testing: A case from Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guray Kucukkocaoglu

2016-02-01

Full Text Available In this study, inspired by the Credit Portfolio View approach, we intend to develop an econometric credit risk model to estimate credit loss distributions of Turkish Banking System under baseline and stress macro scenarios, by substituting default rates with non-performing loan (NPL ratios. Since customer number based historical default rates are not available for the whole Turkish banking system’s credit portfolio, we used NPL ratios as dependent variable instead of default rates, a common practice for many countries where historical default rates are not available. Although, there are many problems in using NPL ratios as default rates such as underestimating portfolio losses as a result of totally non-homogeneous total credit portfolios and transferring non-performing loans to asset management companies from banks’ balance sheets, our aim is to underline and limit some ignored problems using accounting based NPL ratios as default rates in macroeconomic credit risk modeling. Developed models confirm the strong statistical relationship between systematic component of credit risk and macroeconomic variables in Turkey. Stress test results also are compatible with the past experiences

Credit risk in liberalised power and natural gas markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lapson, E.; Hunter, Richard

1999-01-01

This chapter examines the relationship of market structure and price volatility to credit risk, and discusses credit risk and energy market structures, credit risk in bilateral contracts, market evolution, and the effect of liberalising power markets on credit quality considering the power liberalising in Europe, the pace of change, and the new risks and opportunities. The market structure in Europe is addressed, and the EU Directive 96/92/EC, structural requirements, access for new generation capacity, and transmission costs are considered. Details of the liberalisation in the UK electricity market, the German market, and the Nord Pool are given, and the best credit practices in bilateral markets, and the quantifying of expected credit loss are described. Panels highlighting the need to know your counterparty in evaluating and negotiating bilateral contracts, and lessons learnt from the June 1998 US power price spike are presented

26 CFR 5c.168(f)(8)-7 - Reporting of income, deductions and investment tax credit; at risk rules.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... tax credit; at risk rules. 5c.168(f)(8)-7 Section 5c.168(f)(8)-7 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE... investment tax credit; at risk rules. (a) In general. The fact that the lessor's payments of interest and... property shall be limited to the extent the at risk rules under the investment tax credit provisions and...

Quantifying Correlation Uncertainty Risk in Credit Derivatives Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colin Turfus

2018-04-01

Full Text Available We propose a simple but practical methodology for the quantification of correlation risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and credit valuation adjustment (CVA, where the correlation between rates and credit is often uncertain or unmodelled. We take the rates model to be Hull–White (normal and the credit model to be Black–Karasinski (lognormal. We summarise recent work furnishing highly accurate analytic pricing formulae for credit default swaps (CDS including with defaultable Libor flows, extending this to the situation where they are capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive therefrom explicit expressions showing how the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s can be captured in analytic formulae that are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we crucially take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled parameters.

Credit securitization and credit derivatives: Financial instruments and the credit risk management of middle market commercial loan portfolios

OpenAIRE

Henke, Sabine; Burghof, Hans-Peter; Rudolph, Bernd

1998-01-01

Banks increasingly recognize the need to measure and manage the credit risk of their loans on a portfolio basis. We address the subportfolio "middle market". Due to their specific lending policy for this market segment it is an important task for banks to systematically identify regional and industrial credit concentrations and reduce the detected concentrations through diversification. In recent years, the development of markets for credit securitization and credit derivatives has provided n...

Insurability of export credit risks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alsem, K.J.; Antufjew, J.; Huizingh, K.R.E.; Koning, Ruud H.; Sterken, E.; Woltil, M.

2003-01-01

Firms exporting their goods and services abroad face risks that are different from the risks faced by firms who do not engage in international trade. It is common practice to allow the receiving party to pay in instalments. The exporting firm faces credit risk, but as in most countries, Dutch firms

76 FR 1889 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-11

... ``three-pillar'' framework that includes (i) risk-based capital requirements for credit risk, market risk... incremental risk capital requirement to capture default and credit quality migration risk for non... (advanced approaches rules) (collectively, the credit risk capital rules) \\8\\ by requiring any bank subject...

Customers and Markets: Both are Essential to Credit-Risk Measurement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David E. Allen

2011-03-01

Full Text Available This paper compares credit models that incorporate a market component to those that are solely customerbased. We found that customer-only models understated credit risk during the Global Financial Crisis (GFCand do not adequately differentiate between industries. Models that focus too heavily on the market canoverstate credit risk in times of high volatility. We recommend a two-factor modelling approach thatincorporates both customer and market risk to improve the accuracy of credit-risk measurement as well asassist lenders with early risk detection.

Credit Default Swap Valuation with Counterparty Risk

OpenAIRE

Leung, Seng Yuen; Kwok, Yue Kuen

2005-01-01

Using the reduced form framework with inter-dependent default correlation, we perform valuation of credit default swap with counterparty risk. The inter-dependent default risk structure between the protection buyer, protection seller and the reference entity in a credit default swap are characterized by their correlated default intensities, where the default intensity of one party increases when the default of another party occurs. We explore how settlement risk and replacement cost affect th...

Sovereign Credit Risk, Liquidity, and European Central Bank Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pelizzon, Loriana; Subrahmanyam, Marti G.; Tomio, Davide

2016-01-01

We examine the dynamic relation between credit risk and liquidity in the Italian sovereign bond market during the eurozone crisis and the subsequent European Central Bank (ECB) interventions. Credit risk drives the liquidity of the market. A 10% change in the credit default swap (CDS) spread leads...... to a 13% change in the bid-ask spread, the relation being stronger when the CDS spread exceeds 500 basis points. The Long-Term Refinancing Operations of the ECB weakened the sensitivity of market makers’ liquidity provision to credit risk, highlighting the importance of funding liquidity measures...

Liquidity and credit risk in the emerging financial markets

OpenAIRE

Amir Saadaoui, Younes Boujelbene

2014-01-01

In this paper, we examine the relationship between liquidity, liquidity risk and credit risk in emerging sovereign bonds after the subprime crisis period. In our study, we concentrate in the effect of liquidity and credit risk in the problem of liquidity and in the emerging bond market. The presence of control variables, asymmetric information, amount outstanding, coupon, age and interest rate, assist to more explain this relationship. To explain the role of liquidity and credit risk in the p...

The Cross-Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friewald, Nils; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

2014-01-01

We explore the link between a firm's stock returns and credit risk using a simple insight from structural models following Merton (1974): risk premia on equity and credit instruments are related because all claims on assets must earn the same compensation per unit of risk. Consistent with theory......, we find that firms' stock returns increase with credit risk premia estimated from CDS spreads. Credit risk premia contain information not captured by physical or risk-neutral default probabilities alone. This sheds new light on the “distress puzzle”—the lack of a positive relation between equity...

The Cross-Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friewald, Niels; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

We explore the link between a firm's stock returns and its credit risk using a simple insight from structural models following Merton (1974): risk premia on equity and credit instruments are related because all claims on assets must earn the same compensation per unit of risk. Consistent...... with theory, we find that firms' stock returns increase with credit risk premia estimated from CDS spreads. Credit risk premia contain information not captured by physical or by risk-neutral default probabilities alone. This sheds new light on the "distress puzzle", i.e. the lack of a positive relation...

Portfolio Allocation Subject to Credit Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rogerio de Deus Oliveira

2003-12-01

Full Text Available Credit Risk is an important dimension to be considered in the risk management procedures of financial institutions. Is a particularly useful in emerging markets where default rates on bank loan products are usually high. It is usually calculated through highly costly Monte Carlo simulations which consider different stochastic factors driving the uncertainly associated to the borrowers liabilities. In this paper, under some restrictions, we drive closed form formulas for the probability distributions of default rates of bank loans products involving a big number of clients. This allows us to quickly obtain the credit risk of such products. Moreover, using these probability distributions, we solve the problem of optimal portfolio allocation under default risk.

Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borchani, Hanen; Martinez, Ana Maria; Masegosa, Andres

2015-01-01

Our goal is to do risk prediction in credit operations, and as data is collected continuously and reported on a monthly basis, this gives rise to a streaming data classification problem. Our analysis reveals some practical problems that have not previously been thoroughly analyzed in the context...

Credit Risk in the Banking Sector in Kosovo

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhamet Aliu

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Loans make up the bulk of a bank’s assets, and thus credit risk is the most significant risk for commercial banks in Kosovo and throughout the world. Despite its complexity, effective management of credit risk is a prerequisite for the success of a bank and the banking system in general. A special role in this aspect is played by the separation of reserves to cover the risk of failure to repay the loan or in cases of nonfulfilment of contractual obligations by the loan recipient. Therefore, this research aims to address this issue and analyses the credit risk management of the banking system of the Republic of Kosovo in general and the effects of separation of reserves for loan losses in particular.

Exit and Failure of Credit Unions in Brazil: A Risk Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flávio Leonel de Carvalho

2015-04-01

Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the factors that affect the market exit of Brazilian singular credit unions from 1995 to 2009; it also identifies and lists the determinants of various types of market exits and analyzes whether profitability is a significant factor for credit union survival. This study was conducted with accounting data provided by the Central Bank of Brazil, which derives only from individual cooperatives, i.e. singular credit unions. Quarterly financial statements from these credit unions that were active from 1995 to the second quarter of 2009 were employed, totaling 71,325 observations for 1,929 credit unions. Based on survival and the model of competing risks (such as the Cox, Exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, and Competing Risk models, the results show that there is no statistical evidence to ensure a correlation between profitability and credit union survival. The results also suggest that the size of credit unions plays a key role in their survival and longevity and that their funding and investment management are related to their survival and risk of market exit. In conclusion, the results confirm the initial idea that the duality inherent to credit unions - cooperative principles versus economic efficiency - might influence the stability, survival, and longevity of these institutions. Such results may also imply that a credit union embracing the rationale of a private bank will become more estranged from its members, something which will hinder its future operations and increase the likelihood of its exit from the market.

DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK SCREENING METHOD FOR CREDITED OPERATOR ACTIONS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

HIGGINS, J.C.; O'HARA, J.M.; LEWIS, P.M.; PERSENSKY, J.; BONGARRA, J.

2002-01-01

DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK SCREENING METHOD FOR CREDITED OPERATOR ACTIONS. THE U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (NRC) REVIEWS THE HUMAN FACTORS ASPECTS OF PROPOSED LICENSE AMENDMENTS THAT IMPACT HUMAN ACTIONS THAT ARE CREDITED IN A PLANTS SAFETY ANALYSIS. THE STAFF IS COMMITTED TO A GRADED APPROACH TO THESE REVIEWS THAT FOCUS RESOURCES ON THE MOST RISK IMPORTANT CHANGES. THEREFORE, A RISK INFORMED SCREENING METHOD WAS DEVELOPED BASED ON AN ADAPTATION OF EXISTING GUIDANCE FOR RISK INFORMED REGULATION AND HUMAN FACTORS. THE METHOD USES BOTH QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE INFORMATION TO DIVIDE THE AMENDMENT REQUESTS INTO DIFFERENT LEVELS OF REVIEW. THE METHOD WAS EVALUATED USING A VARIETY OF TESTS. THIS PAPER WILL SUMMARIZE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE METHODOLOGY AND THE EVALUATIONS THAT WERE PERFORMED TO VERIFY ITS USEFULNESS

Statistical credit risk assessment model of small and very small enterprises for Lithuanian credit unions

OpenAIRE

Špicas, Renatas

2017-01-01

While functioning in accordance with the new, business and efficiency-oriented operating model, credit unions develop and begin functioning outside the community. It is universally recognised in scientific literature that as credit unions expand their activities beyond a community, social relations with credit union members weaken and the credit unions lose their social control element, which help them to better assess and manage information asymmetry and credit risk. So far, the analysis of ...

Modelling local government unit credit risk in the Republic of Croatia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petra Posedel

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to determine possible indicators that affect local unit credit risk and investigate their effect on default (credit risk of local government units in Croatia. No system for the estimation of local unit credit risk has been established in Croatia so far causing many practical problems in local unit borrowing. Because of the specific nature of the operations of local government units and legislation that does not allow local government units to go into bankruptcy, conventional methods for estimating credit risk are not applicable, and the set of standard potential determinants of credit risk has to be expanded with new indicators. Thus in the paper, in addition to the usual determinants of credit risk, the hypothesis of the influence of political factors on local unit credit risk in Croatia is also tested out, with the use of a Tobit model. Results of econometric analysis show that credit risk of local government units in Croatia is affected by the political structure of local government, the proportion of income tax and surtax in operating revenue, the ratio of net operating balance, net financial liabilities and direct debt to operating revenue, as well as the ratio of debt repayment and cash, and direct debt and operating revenue.

Prepayment risk, impact on credit products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan Costin NIŢESCU

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Credit pricing is always an important aspect of operations of banks, as loans are generally two thirds of bank assets. Therefore, the study of factors influencing a bank customer behavior and their impact on early repayment of loans may have a significant influence in reducing the risk assumed by such unexpected operations.Objective analysis of prepayment risk is to estimate the probability of repayment to better manage its manifestation. The existence of potential customers that use this option exposes the bank to a number of risks, such as interest rate risk, the maturity mismatch risk and liquidity risk.Proper evaluation and forecasting the evolution of this risk can bring great benefits for a credit institution in the management of loan products and customer relationship: lower risk of over-ensure against fixed rate mortgage, a better management of short-term and long term liquidity needs (thus reducing the risk of over-financing can offer customers more competitive pricing (achieved by reducing funding costs due to better assessment and management of risks involved early repayment.

Survey of credit risk models in relation to capital adequacy framework for financial institutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Poomjai Nacaskul

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This article (i iterates what is meant by credit risks and the mathematical-statistical modelling thereof, (ii elaborates the conceptual and technical links between credit risk modelling and capital adequacy framework for financial institutions, particularly as per the New Capital Accord (Basel II’s Internal Ratings-Based (IRB approach, (iii proffer a simple and intuitive taxonomy on contemporary credit risk modelling methodologies, and (iv discuses in some details a number of key models pertinent, in various stages of development, to various application areas in the banking and financial sector.

An Application Relating To Credit Risk and Credit Risk Management in Tu rkish Banking System: The Case of Turkey Garanti Bank

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyhan Çil Koçyiğit

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Within the globalization process of the world, at the competitive area arised as a result of the rapid increase in the number of banks and their branches in developing countries, the vigorously existance of banks depend on the management of the risks faced successfully. Banks must establish their credit strategies onto a good risk managment. Indeed, it is the inevitable fact that the success of financial institutions depends on having a powerful risk management system. In this study, by using the banking ratios, it is aimed to investigate the credit-risk changes of Turkish Garanti Bank (S.C. by three-month periods of 2007–2012 and give information about the risk management of Turkish Garanti Bank (S.C.. In conclusion, it is seen that, at Turkish Garanti Bank (S.C., credit risk is measured and evaluated in accordance with international standards, and all risk management is executing in parallel with Basel II regulations.

The effect of macroeconomic factors on credit risk in the banking system of Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Khodaei Valahzaghard

2012-08-01

Full Text Available These days, there are increasing changes on environmental and economic networks and different risks of various institutions affect the financial structure. Different institutions including financial and credit institutions are facing with the risk of lack of their timely obligations to make sure the repayment of the funds is granted. In this study, the effects of economic factors not affected by intentional behavior of customers are investigated. Statistical study of the banking system includes all public and private banks. Statistical research community from 2005 to 2010 is considered. The cross-sectional data of the study and a combination of regression analysis is used. The regression analysis of combined data, fixed effects model based on the data is a cross-sectional fit. According to results of regression analysis, Pearson and Spearman's Correlation Coefficient, there is no significant relationship between the inflation rate, employment rate, unemployment rate, the dollar, the euro, with import growth of credit risk in the banking system in Iran. Therefore, based on probability theory, it can be stated that the credit risk in the banking system in Iran under the influence of variables is not mentioned. In addition, positive and significant relationship between stock index and credit risk in the banking system in Iran has increased by Weber in this index increases and reducing credit risk is reduced.

Papers of a Canadian Institute conference on successfully managing counter party credit risk : fundamentals and essentials for the energy industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

The main focus of this conference is the management of credit risk for major energy trading and marketing companies. The papers deal with pertinent issues such as the development and implementation of corporate credit risk management policy, credit risk exposure reporting systems, and the quality of ratings in the utility sector. Risk management strategies include quantitative and subjective credit factors, credit scoring, risk mitigation, limit-setting methodologies, measurement of liquidity, capital markets access, portfolio management, and the development of policies, procedures and control. Three presentations were indexed separately for inclusion in the database. refs., tabs., figs

Papers of a Canadian Institute conference on successfully managing counter party credit risk : fundamentals and essentials for the energy industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-07-01

The main focus of this conference is the management of credit risk for major energy trading and marketing companies. The papers deal with pertinent issues such as the development and implementation of corporate credit risk management policy, credit risk exposure reporting systems, and the quality of ratings in the utility sector. Risk management strategies include quantitative and subjective credit factors, credit scoring, risk mitigation, limit-setting methodologies, measurement of liquidity, capital markets access, portfolio management, and the development of policies, procedures and control. Three presentations were indexed separately for inclusion in the database. refs., tabs., figs.

PROBLEMS AND OBSTACLES IN CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN INDIAN PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

RENU ARORA

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This paper evaluates the credit risk management (CRM practices of Indian public sector banks in grant of commercial loans to find the grey areas which need review and restructuring to improve banks’ asset quality. Based on literature review, a conceptual model of credit risk management systems for commercial loans, of Indian public sector banks, has been developed. This model has been used to underline the problems areas and obstacles in credit risk management through comparison of large and small banks. The empirical comparison of CRM practices of Indian public sector banks has resulted into emergence of various grey areas, like insufficient training, data management, inappropriate IT support, system disintegration, inconsistent rating approaches, which need immediate attention and if tackled properly, can reduce their non-performing assets.

Credit risk management in banks from the perspective of jurisprudence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sovilj Ranko

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The level, structure and nature of problem loans are a significant source of credit risk in the banking business, with the main reason for developing and increasing problem loans indicate the need for a comprehensive and strategic approach to solving them. In addition, the accumulation of problem loans in banks' balance sheets negatively affects the credit activity of banks and, consequently has a negative impact on economic activity, primarily due to reduced availability of possible sources of financing both for companies and for the population. One of the main reasons for the increased credit risk exposure of banks, especially before the outbreak of the subprime crisis, are less developed models for evaluation and measurement of credit risk, as well as a poor assessment of collateral. Therefore, this paper points out to the importance of careful management of credit risk as well as the need to develop appropriate methods and models for the early detection of problem loans and reducing exposure to credit risk. In the last part of the paper, the author provides an overview of the most important collaterals, with specific reference to domestic jurisprudence.

Counterparty Credit Risk on the Blockchain

OpenAIRE

Starlander, Isak

2017-01-01

Counterparty credit risk is present in trades offinancial obligations. This master thesis investigates the up and comingtechnology blockchain and how it could be used to mitigate counterparty creditrisk. The study intends to cover essentials of the mathematical model expectedloss, along with an introduction to the blockchain technology. After modellinga simple smart contract and using historical financial data, it was evidentthat there is a possible opportunity to reduce counterparty credit r...

Closed-form pricing formula for exchange option with credit risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Geonwoo; Koo, Eunho

2016-01-01

In this paper, we study the valuation of Exchange option with credit risk. Since the over-the-counter (OTC) markets have grown rapidly in size, the counterparty default risk is very important and should be considered for the valuation of options. For modeling of credit risk, we use the structural model of Klein [13]. We derive the closed-form pricing formula for the price of the Exchange option with credit risk via the Mellin transform and provide the experiment results to illustrate the important properties of option with numerical graphs.

Credit Risk Transfer and Crunches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wigan, Duncan

2010-01-01

Rather than in terms of the inevitable demise of a destabilising process of speculation, this article explores the ‘credit crunch’ as a window on the fabrication, and measure of the proportions of a political shift driven by market actors and financial innovation. The Basel process reconceptualised...... banks as risk navigators and generated a competitive hierarchy within the global banking industry determined on a gauge of this capacity. This private regulatory regime promoted market inflation and rendered institutional liquidity and risk transfer definitive of market power. In turn, a ballooning...... credit derivatives market broke the limits of financial production and defined state actions in the face of crisis. A shift from a central concern with solvency to that of liquidity thinly masks a profound redistribution of power from the public to the private. By swapping private assets of uncertain...

Wholesale funding, coordination, and credit risk

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Lei; Zhang , Lin; Zheng, Yong

2013-01-01

We use the global games approach to study key factors affecting the credit risk\\ud associated with roll-over of bank debt. When creditors are heterogenous, these include\\ud the extent of short-term borrowing and capital market liquidity for repo financing.\\ud Specifically, in a model with a large institutional creditor and a continuum of small\\ud creditors independently making their roll-over decisions based on private information,\\ud we find that increasing the proportion of short-term debt and/...

Credit ratings and CEO risk-taking incentives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuang, Y.; Qin, B.

2013-01-01

This study examines the sophistication of rating agencies in incorporating managerial risk-taking incentives into their credit risk evaluation. We measure risk-taking incentives using two proxies: the sensitivity of managerial wealth to stock return volatility (vega) and the sensitivity of

Market-implied risk-neutral probabilities, actual probabilities, credit risk and news

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shashidhar Murthy

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Motivated by the credit crisis, this paper investigates links between risk-neutral probabilities of default implied by markets (e.g. from yield spreads and their actual counterparts (e.g. from ratings. It discusses differences between the two and clarifies underlying economic intuition using simple representations of credit risk pricing. Observed large differences across bonds in the ratio of the two probabilities are shown to imply that apparently safer securities can be more sensitive to news.

Value at risk, bank equity and credit risk

OpenAIRE

Broll, Udo; Wahl, Jack E.

2003-01-01

We study the implications of the value at risk concept for the bank's optimum amount of equity capital under credit risk. The market value of loans is risky and lognormally distributed. We show that the required equity capital depends upon managerial and market factors. Furthermore, the bank's equity and asset/liability management has to be addressed simultaneously by bank managers.

Credit risk disclosure in the annual financial statements of Bulgarian banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anita Atanassova

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The paper analyzes the credit risk disclosure in the annual financial statements of Bulgarian banks for 2015 and 2016. Banks are ranked according to the level of credit risk disclosure, in accordance with the requirements of international accounting regulations and in relation to financial and regulatory ratios linked to capital adequacy. As a result of the conducted empirical study, it is concluded that banks' management is not particularly inclined to make full disclosures and actively to declare internal qualitative and quantitative information. However, the level of disclosure of credit risk for banks in Bulgaria is high. Banks with a low degree of capital adequacy tend to make a more complete disclosure of credit risk, and vice versa. There were no indications of a link between the size of the bank assets, the existence of the bank as a public company and the disclosure of credit risk. We believe that, in the context of increased competition, the disclosure of credit risk from a formal requirement may become one of the many tools to stabilize the position of certain banks and create a positive image of the bank for public information users.

Credit card debt, stress and key health risk behaviors among college students.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Melissa C; Lust, Katherine; Story, Mary; Ehlinger, Ed

2008-01-01

To examine cross-sectional associations between credit card debt, stress, and health risk behaviors among college students, focusing particularly on weight-related behaviors. Random-sample, mailed survey. Undergraduate and graduate students (n = 3206) attending a large public university. Self-reported health indicators (e.g., weight, height, physical activity, diet, weight control, stress, credit card debt). More than 23% of students reported credit card debt > or = $1000. Using Poisson regression to predict relative risks (RR) of health behaviors, debt of at least $1000 was associated with nearly every risk indicator tested, including overweight/obesity, insufficient physical activity, excess television viewing, infrequent breakfast consumption, fast food consumption, unhealthy weight control, body dissatisfaction, binge drinking, substance use, and violence. For example, adjusted RR [ARR] ranged from 1.09 (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.17) for insufficient vigorous activity to 2.17 (CI: 0.68-2.82) for using drugs other than marijuana in the past 30 days. Poor stress management was also a robust indicator of health risk. University student lifestyles may be characterized by a variety of coexisting risk factors. These findings indicate that both debt and stress were associated with wide-ranging adverse health indicators. Intervention strategies targeting at-risk student populations need to be tailored to work within the context of the many challenges of college life, which may serve as barriers to healthy lifestyles. Increased health promotion efforts targeting stress, financial management, and weight-related health behaviors may be needed to enhance wellness among young adults.

Credit Risk Evaluation System: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

African Journals Online (AJOL)

On the other hand, this kind of bank's activity is connected with high risk as big amount of bad decisions may even cause bankruptcy. The key problem consists of distinguishing good (that surely repay) and bad (that likely default) credit applicants. Credit risk evaluation is an important and interesting management science ...

Dynamic Multi-Factor Credit Risk Model with Fat-Tailed Factors

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gapko, Petr; Šmíd, Martin

2012-01-01

Roč. 62, č. 2 (2012), s. 125-140 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:Univerzita Karlova(CZ) GAUK 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : credit risk * probability of default * loss given default * credit loss * credit loss distribution * Basel II Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/smid-dynamic multi-factor credit risk model with fat-tailed factors.pdf

The evolution of credit risk: phenomena, methods and management

OpenAIRE

George A. Christodoulakis

2007-01-01

This paper summarizes the proceedings of a conference at the Bank of Greece on credit risk. The papers presented focused on innovations in risk management methods which contribute to systemic financial stability, calculation of capital adequacy in financial institutions as well as the validation of credit rating methods in the context of Basel II.

Credit Risk Evaluation Using a C-Variable Least Squares Support Vector Classification Model

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Lean; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, K. K.

Credit risk evaluation is one of the most important issues in financial risk management. In this paper, a C-variable least squares support vector classification (C-VLSSVC) model is proposed for credit risk analysis. The main idea of this model is based on the prior knowledge that different classes may have different importance for modeling and more weights should be given to those classes with more importance. The C-VLSSVC model can be constructed by a simple modification of the regularization parameter in LSSVC, whereby more weights are given to the lease squares classification errors with important classes than the lease squares classification errors with unimportant classes while keeping the regularized terms in its original form. For illustration purpose, a real-world credit dataset is used to test the effectiveness of the C-VLSSVC model.

Credit Risk Management - Loan Approval Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lulzim Rashiti

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is on understanding the international regulations issued by Basel I, Basel II and Basel III to best supervise and manage credit risk management policies. Part of paper will focus on the description and impacts of the regulations and the pivotal importance they play in providing a sound banking system. Credit risk represents another important element that will be analysed considering that it lays the foundation during the loan consideration and approval process. The paper will also explain in detail procedures and responsibilities shared along the process of loan acceptance by a banker. To sum up, the overall process from application to loan approval or denial will be explained pointing out the implications that are faced along the way

The Accuracy of the Information Presented in Credit Bureau Reports: Research and Comparative Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir Simović

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents research results regarding information accuracy in the Serbian credit bureau reports and tries to identify the reasons which affect the accuracy of the information presented in credit bureau reports, in global terms. The research was conducted by interviewing respondents. Comparative analysis was used in order to formulate proposal of factors which determine information accuracy in the credit bureau reports. The results show that the materially significant errors in information presented in Serbian credit bureau reports make 0.5% of the sample. This implies that creditors in Serbia base their credit decisions on reliable information. The results of this study were compared to results of the studies conducted in USA and Germany in order to formulate proposal of factors which influence the information accuracy in the credit bureau reports. In order toimprove information accuracy in credit bureau reports, in global terms, special attention should be paid to formulation of international standards of credit reporting and identification systems of natural persons and legal entities.

Credit Risk Evaluation of Large Power Consumers Considering Power Market Transaction

Science.gov (United States)

Fulin, Li; Erfeng, Xu; ke, Sun; Dunnan, Liu; Shuyi, Shen

2018-03-01

Large power users will participate in power market in various forms after power system reform. Meanwhile, great importance has always attached to the construction of the credit system in power industry. Due to the difference between the awareness of performance and the ability to perform, credit risk of power customer will emerge accordingly. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate credit risk of large power customers in the new situation of power market. Firstly, this paper constructs index system of credit risk of large power customers, and establishes evaluation model of interval number and AHP-entropy weight method.

Why credit risk markets are predestined for exhibiting log-periodic power law structures

Science.gov (United States)

Wosnitza, Jan Henrik; Leker, Jens

2014-01-01

Recent research has established the existence of log-periodic power law (LPPL) patterns in financial institutions’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads. The main purpose of this paper is to clarify why credit risk markets are predestined for exhibiting LPPL structures. To this end, the credit risk prediction of two variants of logistic regression, i.e. polynomial logistic regression (PLR) and kernel logistic regression (KLR), are firstly compared to the standard logistic regression (SLR). In doing so, the question whether the performances of rating systems based on balance sheet ratios can be improved by nonlinear transformations of the explanatory variables is resolved. Building on the result that nonlinear balance sheet ratio transformations hardly improve the SLR’s predictive power in our case, we secondly compare the classification performance of a multivariate SLR to the discriminative powers of probabilities of default derived from three different capital market data, namely bonds, CDSs, and stocks. Benefiting from the prompt inclusion of relevant information, the capital market data in general and CDSs in particular increasingly outperform the SLR while approaching the time of the credit event. Due to the higher classification performances, it seems plausible for creditors to align their investment decisions with capital market-based default indicators, i.e., to imitate the aggregate opinion of the market participants. Since imitation is considered to be the source of LPPL structures in financial time series, it is highly plausible to scan CDS spread developments for LPPL patterns. By establishing LPPL patterns in governmental CDS spread trajectories of some European crisis countries, the LPPL’s application to credit risk markets is extended. This novel piece of evidence further strengthens the claim that credit risk markets are adequate breeding grounds for LPPL patterns.

76 FR 79379 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk; Alternatives to Credit Ratings for Debt and...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-21

..., China, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the..., the legislative history of section 939A focuses on the conflicts of interest of credit rating agencies... illustrates how CDS spreads and CRCs could be used together to assign specific risk-weighting factors. In...

Writing Performance of At-Risk Learners in Online Credit Recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Leiter, Michael P.

2012-01-01

Online credit recovery is becoming a popular choice for students needing to recover lost graduation credit due to course failure. The problem is that high school students who take online credit recovery classes in order to gain writing credit for graduation are failing the writing section on the state merit exam (MME). At-risk students and…

Validation Techniques of the Intern Models for Credit Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogdan Moinescu

2006-11-01

Full Text Available The new own funds adequacy device, officialy named “ International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards”, describes the most important benchmark framework for micro-prudential supervision at the moment. The publication of the final text in June 2004, after five years of deliberations, represents the result of multiple analyses and comments provided by all interested parties, banking supervision authorities, associations and credit institutions. Provided the development of complex methodologies of risk measurement and management, on a large scale, by credit institutions, simple and static rules of the first accord have become less and less relevant during the last years. And so, the need of setting up a own funds adequacy framework which is much more risk sensitive and provides incentives to credit institutions on what concerns the improvement of risk measurement and management systems was met by approval of the Basel II Accord, which will, therefore, lead to the strengthening of financial stability. The revisal of the Accord was mainly focused on the increase of risk analysis and internal measurement and the changes made to their estimation allow banks to create their own methodological framework to calculate capital requirements (also considering each credit institution’ risk appetite.

Development Of The Technique Of Assessment Of Banking Risks Of Long-Term Crediting Of Investments (On The Example Of Banks Of Sevastopol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulyana Viktorovna Dremova

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The external destabilizing factor — financial crisis — has significantly influenced on the level increase of riskiness of the banking credit operations. Taking into account that the increased level of risk follows long-term credits, these operations has been influenced the most, that can be as one of the constraining conditions for the provision of bank long-term credit resources. It, in turn, causes the need to develop the risk assessment technique of long-term credits in regulation of banks’ long-term credit operations. As the risk assessment of credit operations in banking practice is generally limited to the calculation of credit risk, it is efficient to consider the scientifically reasonable approach to a risks assessment of long-term crediting including influence of private risks for the purpose of carrying out the generalized assessment of riskiness both separate types of long-term credits, and a long-term credit portfolio in general. The offered method is based on the calculation of aggregate risk coefficient of the long-term credits, calculated by means of mathematical method of principal component. In the work, it is offered to perform an assessment of private risks by means of statistics: the expectation value, mean square deviation, and the coefficient of a variation. The use of the principal components’ method at the risk assessment of longterm crediting meets such requirements as a lack of value judgment, accounting of specific features of private risks of long-term credits, mathematical validity. It gives the chance to apply the offered risk assessment method of long-term credits in banking. The conclusion is made that the application of an aggregative risk indicator of a long-term crediting will allow banks to trace more accurately the level of riskiness of a long-term credit portfolio and separate types of long-term credits that will strengthen the bank information and analytical base on risk regulation in the field and

Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anagnostou, I.; Sourabh, S.; Kandhai, D.

2018-01-01

Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of

Analysis of The Influence of Liquidity, Credit and Operational Risk, in Indonesian Islamic Bank’s Financing for The Period 2007-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ousmane Diallo

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of credit, liquidity and operational risks in six Indonesian’s islamic banking financing products namely mudharabah, musyarakah, murabahah, istishna, ijarah and qardh, in order to try to discover whether or not Indonesian islamic banking is based on the “risk-sharing” system. This paper relies on a fixed effect model test based on the panel data analysis method, focusing on the period from 2007 to 2013. The research is an exploratory and descriptive study of all the Indonesian islamic banks that were operating in 2013. The results of this study show that the Islamic banking system in Indonesia truly has banking products based on “risk-sharing.” We found out that credit, operational and liquidity risks as a whole, have significant influence on mudarabah, musyarakah, murabahah, istishna, ijarah and qardh based financing. There is a correlation between the credit risk and mudarabah based financing, and no causal relationship between the credit risk and musharaka, murabahah, ijarah, istishna and qardh based financing. There is also correlation between the operational risk and mudarabah and murabahah based financing, and no causal relationship between the operational risk and musharaka, istishna, ijarah and qardh based financing. There is correlation between the liquidity risk and istishna based financing, and no causal relationship between the liquidity risk and musharaka, mudarabah, murabahah, ijarah and qardh based financing. A major implication of this study is the fact that there is no causal relationship between the credit risk and musharakah based financing, which is the mode of financing where the islamic bank shares the risk with its clients, but there is an influence of credit risk toward mudarabah mode financing, a financing mode where the Islamic bank bears all the risk. These findings can lead us to conclude that the Indonesian Islamic banking sector is based on the “risk

Internal controls and credit risk relationship among banks in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The study purport to investigate the effectiveness of internal control mechanisms, investigate whether evidence of agency problem is found among banks in Europe and determine how internal controls affect credit risk. Design/methodology/approach: Panel data from 91 banks from 23 European Union countries were studied from 2008-2014. Hausman’s specification test suggest the use of fixed effects estimation technique of GLS. Quantitatively modelled data on 15 variables covering elements of internal controls, objectives of internal controls, agency problem, bank and country specific variables were used. Findings: There is still high credit risk in spite of measures being implemented by the European Central Bank. Banks have individual entity factors that increase or decrease credit risk. The study finds effective internal control systems because objectives of internal controls are achieved and significantly determine credit risk. Agency problem is confirmed due to significant positive relation with credit risk. There is significant effect of internal controls on credit risk with specific variables as risk assessment, return on average risk weighted assets, institutional ownership, bank size, inflation, interest rate and GDP. Research limitations/implications: Missing data prevented the use of strongly balanced panel. The lack of flexibility with using quantitative approach did not allow further scrutiny of the nature of variables. However, statistical tests were acceptable for the model used. The study has implications for management and owners of banks to be warry of agency problem because that provides incentive for reckless high risk transactions that may benefit the agent than the principal. Management must engage in actions that profile the company better and enhances value maximization. Rising default risk has tendency to impair corporate image leading to loss of reputational capital. Originality/value: The study provides the use of

Asset correlations and credit portfolio risk: an empirical analysis

OpenAIRE

Düllmann, Klaus; Scheicher, Martin; Schmieder, Christian

2007-01-01

In credit risk modelling, the correlation of unobservable asset returns is a crucial component for the measurement of portfolio risk. In this paper, we estimate asset correlations from monthly time series of Moody's KMV asset values for around 2,000 European firms from 1996 to 2004. We compare correlation and value-atrisk (VaR) estimates in a one-factor or market model and a multi-factor or sector model. Our main finding is a complex interaction of credit risk correlations and default probabi...

Facilitating SME Financing through Improved Credit Reporting

OpenAIRE

International Committee on Credit Reporting

2014-01-01

The general principles for credit reporting were issued by the World Bank in September 2011. Since then, the World Bank and the international committee on credit reporting (ICCR) have been leading efforts towards the implementation of the general principles worldwide. This report is one of the concrete outputs of the work following the general principles. It addresses one of the most signi...

Sovereign Credit Risk in Latin America and Global Common Factors

OpenAIRE

Manuel Agosin Trumper; Juan Díaz Maureira

2012-01-01

This paper studies the importance of global common factors in the evolution of sovereign credit risk in a group of emerging economies (15 countries in Latin America for which daily data are available on sovereign credit spreads and CDS quotations from the beginning of 2007 until February 2012). We arrive at three principal results. First, there is robust evidence for the existence of a common factor in the evolution of the two measurements of sovereign credit risk that we use. Second, the com...

12 CFR 652.70 - Risk-based capital level.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts: (a) Credit and interest rate risk. The... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital level. 652.70 Section 652.70 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE...

SUPERVISION OF CREDIT INSTITUTIONS SIGNIFICANT RISKS TO FINANCIAL STABILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LUCIAN-ION MEDAR

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Financial stability of Romanian banking system is determined by the constant supervision of credit institutions significant risks. Accession of Romania to Union Banking requires the signing of a linked protocol between the central bank and European Central Bank regarding prudential supervision to ensure financial stability. This means that from the next year, the central bank will impose a new supervision of credit institutions in our country. And especially to those credit institutions that do not fall under European supervisors, according to the procedures of the ECB. Through this study we propose to specify the main elements of management of significant risks to ensure financial stability.

A Soft Intelligent Risk Evaluation Model for Credit Scoring Classification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehdi Khashei

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Risk management is one of the most important branches of business and finance. Classification models are the most popular and widely used analytical group of data mining approaches that can greatly help financial decision makers and managers to tackle credit risk problems. However, the literature clearly indicates that, despite proposing numerous classification models, credit scoring is often a difficult task. On the other hand, there is no universal credit-scoring model in the literature that can be accurately and explanatorily used in all circumstances. Therefore, the research for improving the efficiency of credit-scoring models has never stopped. In this paper, a hybrid soft intelligent classification model is proposed for credit-scoring problems. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the soft computing techniques are used in order to modify the performance of the traditional artificial neural networks in credit scoring. Empirical results of Australian credit card data classifications indicate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms its components, and also other classification models presented for credit scoring. Therefore, the proposed model can be considered as an appropriate alternative tool for binary decision making in business and finance, especially in high uncertainty conditions.

Development of methodological tools for assessing enterprise credit worthiness taking into account off-balance sheet risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N.G. Vygovska

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the improvement of methodical tools for assessing the credit worthiness of enterprises’ legal entities taking into account the impact of off-balance-sheet risks on the definite integral class of a debtor-borrower. The authors substantiate that the non-accounting of off-balance sheet commitments in assessing the borrower’s credit worthiness leads to false managerial decisions on granting a loan and increasing the level of credit risk of the bank. The purpose of the article is to study the questions of methodical tools for assessing the credit worthiness of economic entities and develop directions for improving its analytical support taking into account the impact of off-balance-sheet risks. The object of the research is the analytical support for assessing the credit worthiness of a borrower-legal entity taking into account off-balance-sheet risks. The authors put forward and proved the hypothesis that, acting as the guarantor or principal of another enterprise, the assessment of the borrower's credit worthiness undergoes significant changes. The coefficient analysis of the methodological provision for assessing the borrower's credit rating by the current method number 351 is carried out, as a result of which the influence on the integral index and the debtor class is proved. When determining the reliability class of the borrower, the most affected are solvency ratios (especially for short-term loans and financial sustainability (for long-term loans to the borrower. The current methodology for defining these indicators does not take into account the effect of off-balance sheet risks, which is due to the use of financial reporting data, which does not include data on off-balance sheet instruments. The methodological support of credit-worthiness analysis is proposed, taking into account the impact of off-balance sheet risks on it. The prospects for further research should be formulated in the direction of improving the

13 CFR 120.1000 - Risk-Based Lender Oversight.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-Based Lender Oversight. 120.1000 Section 120.1000 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1000 Risk-Based Lender Oversight. (a) Risk-Based Lender...

76 FR 79531 - Corporate Credit Unions

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-22

... exclude CLF stock subscriptions, based on the asset's negligible credit risk and to facilitate corporate... removing paragraphs (c)(3) and (f)(4) and adding paragraph (h) to read as follows: Sec. 704.6 Credit risk... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 704 RIN 3133-AD95 Corporate Credit Unions AGENCY...

A online credit evaluation method based on AHP and SPA

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yingtao; Zhang, Ying

2009-07-01

Online credit evaluation is the foundation for the establishment of trust and for the management of risk between buyers and sellers in e-commerce. In this paper, a new credit evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the set pair analysis (SPA) is presented to determine the credibility of the electronic commerce participants. It solves some of the drawbacks found in classical credit evaluation methods and broadens the scope of current approaches. Both qualitative and quantitative indicators are considered in the proposed method, then a overall credit score is achieved from the optimal perspective. In the end, a case analysis of China Garment Network is provided for illustrative purposes.

On Partial Defaults in Portfolio Credit Risk : A Poisson Mixture Model Approach

OpenAIRE

Weißbach, Rafael; von Lieres und Wilkau, Carsten

2005-01-01

Most credit portfolio models exclusively calculate the loss distribution for a portfolio of performing counterparts. Conservative default definitions cause considerable insecurity about the loss for a long time after the default. We present three approaches to account for defaulted counterparts in the calculation of the economic capital. Two of the approaches are based on the Poisson mixture model CreditRisk+ and derive a loss distribution for an integrated portfolio. The third method treats ...

An Analysis of the Factors Leading to Rising Credit Risk in the Zimbabwe Banking Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maxwell Sandada

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The study sought to analyse the factors that lead to rising credit risk in the Zimbabwean banking sector. The objective was to ascertain the impact of macroeconomic, industry and bank specific factors on rising credit risk in in Zimbabwe. The study aimed at contributing to credit risk management literature by providing evidence Sub Saharan context. Being anchored on the positivist quantitative research approach, a survey was carried out gather the data that were analysed using descriptive, correlation and regression analyses. The results revealed that the most significant factors leading to credit risk in the Zimbabwean banking sector were macroeconomic and bank specific factors. The industry factors did not show a significant influence on the rising credit risk. The research findings of this study will a valuable addition to the existing knowledge and provide a platform for further research on how the credit risk problems can be dealt with. While credit risk is known as one of the risks inherent to any banking institutions, the alarming levels of credit risk in the Zimbabwe banking sector has motivated this current study to critically analyse the factors that have led to the high credit risk levels.

Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioannis Anagnostou

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of such a conditional independence framework to accommodate for the occasional default clustering has been questioned repeatedly. Thus, financial institutions have relied on stressed correlations or alternative copulas with more extreme tail dependence. In this paper, we propose a different remedy—augmenting systematic risk factors with a contagious default mechanism which affects the entire universe of credits. We construct credit stress propagation networks and calibrate contagion parameters for infectious defaults. The resulting framework is implemented on synthetic test portfolios wherein the contagion effect is shown to have a significant impact on the tails of the loss distributions.

The relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk in Islamic banking industry of Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hashem Nikomaram

2013-04-01

Full Text Available An integrated risk management is a process, which enables banks to measure and manage all risks, simultaneously. The recent turbulent chaos on banking industry has increase the relative importance of risk management, more than before. This paper investigates the relationship between credit risk and liquidity risk among Iranian banks. The proposed study includes all private and governmental banks as population over the period 2005-2012. The results Pearson correlation has disclosed a positive and meaningful relationship between credit and liquidity risks. Bank size also impacts on two mentioned risk factors but we there seems to be no relationship between financial chaos and type of ownership with risk factors.

Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

Credit Risk Evaluation of Swedish SMEs : A Banking Sector Perspective

OpenAIRE

Hörstedt, Maria; Linjamaa, Johanna

2015-01-01

As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corpora...

Effect of internal controls on credit risk among listed Spanish banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The paper examines the effectiveness of internal control systems, explores the exposure of Spanish banks to the dangers of default as a result of internal control systems and establishes a relationship between internal controls and credit risk. Design/Methodology/Approach: Quantitative research approach is used to test hypotheses on the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in Spain. Data from Bankscope and company websites from 2004-2013 were used. Generalized Least Squares (random effect econometric estimation technique was used for the model. Findings: We find that internal control systems are in place but their effectiveness cannot be guaranteed. This exposes Spanish listed banks to serious default situations. There is significant effect of internal controls on credit risk especially the control environment, risk management, control activities and monitoring. The non-disclosure of material internal control weakness is a contributory factor to the ineffective internal control systems. There is however a perceived board ineffectiveness which does not augur well for effective internal control systems. Board characteristics for Spanish banks confirm the agency theory. Research Limitations and Implications: Data unavailability for certain years, variables and many inactive banks did not permit a larger sample size than expected. The use of quantitative variables lacks flexibility. Practical Implications: Bank management will find the work useful to ensure strict enforcement of internal control mechanisms and see it as both credit risk and operational risk issues. Central bank should hurry to compel banks to disclose material internal control weakness as provided in the reviewed COSO framework. Social Implications: Ineffective internal controls lead to credit risks, bank closure and loss of investments. Society suffers a lot from such losses and contagion. Disclosure of material internal control

The impact of ownership structure on bank credit risk: Evidence from Bangladesh

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Niluthpaul SARKER

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the impact of ownership structure of Commercial Banks on bank credit risk in an emerging market like Bangladesh. Prais Winten regression model is applied to a sample of 32 commercial banks from the year of 2000 to 2014 with 390 observations. The result reveals that National Commercial Banks, depositors’ influence, shareholders’ influence, liquidity and profitability are negatively associated with credit risk whereas lag risk has a significant positive impact on credit risk. The effect of banks ownership structure on credit risk divulges a delicate governance of the banking sector. The study conveys a momentous implication of research findings in the national economy. It also found that national commercial banks have the tendency of violating the rules and absorbing heavy risk. It suggests that policy maker should rethink about the government ownership of banks. Therefore the denationalization or reducing government ownership structure is highly recommended.

Data mining for assessing the credit risk of local government units in Croatia

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Silvija Vlah Jerić

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Over the past few decades, data mining techniques, especially artificial neural networks, have been used for modelling many real-world problems. This paper aims to test the performance of three methods: (1 an artificial neural network (ANN, (2 a hybrid artificial neural network and genetic algorithm approach (ANN-GA, and (2 the Tobit regression approach in determining the credit risk of local government units in Croatia. The evaluation of credit risk and prediction of debtor bankruptcy have long been regarded as an important topic in accounting and finance literature. In this research, credit risk is modelled under a regression approach unlike typical credit risk analysis, which is generally viewed as a classification problem. Namely, a standard evaluation of credit risk is not possible due to a lack of bankruptcy data. Thus, the credit risk of a local unit is approximated using the ratio of outstanding liabilities maturing in a given year to total expenditure of the local unit in the same period. The results indicate that the ANN-GA hybrid approach performs significantly better than the Tobit model by providing a significantly smaller average mean squared error. This work is beneficial to researchers and the government in evaluating a local government unit’s credit score.

Credit Risk Evaluation System For Nigerian Banks Using Artificial Ne

African Journals Online (AJOL)

MANKABS

CREDIT RISK EVALUATION SYSTEM: AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH of their own experiential .... limitations concern the high computational ... Number of existing credits at this bank. 7. Personal status and sex. 14. Job. 17.

Credit default swaps and risk-shifting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Campello, M.; Matta, R.

2012-01-01

Credit default swaps (CDSs) are thought to ease borrowing by protecting lenders against default. This paper develops a model of the demand for CDS when borrowers choose the riskiness of investment and verification is imperfect. The model shows that CDSs may lead to risk-shifting, increasing the

Bank Credit Risk Management and Rating Migration Analysis on the Business Cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitris Gavalas

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Credit risk measurement remains a critical field of top priority in banking finance, directly implicated in the recent global financial crisis. This paper examines the dynamic linkages between credit risk migration due to rating shifts and prevailing macroeconomic conditions, reflected in alternative business cycle states. An innovative empirical methodology applies to bank internal rating data, under different economic scenarios and investigates the implications of credit risk quality shifts for risk rating transition matrices. The empirical findings are useful and critical for banks to align to Basel guidelines in relation to core capital requirements and risk-weighted assets in the underlying loan portfolio.

THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON CREDIT RISK: CASE OF ROMANIAN BANKING SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iulia Andreea Bucur

2014-07-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to explore the interactions between macroeconomic conditions, such as: real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, market interest rate, broad money supply, foreign exchange rate fluctuation and unemployment rate, and credit risk in Romanian banking sector during 2008-2013. The interrelations of indicators’ complexity imply a multidimensional statistical analysis in order to find a relation between the macroeconomic conditions and the credit risk. Our regression analysis findings confirm the hypothesis according to which the money supply growth rate and the market foreign exchange rate are negatively related with credit risk and the unemployment rate is positively related with it. Furthermore, our findings revealed that the credit risk is significantly and negatively affected by the exchange rate fluctuation and significantly and positively affected by the unemployment rate. The results do not indicate a significant relationship between credit risk and real GDP growth rate.

CREDIT SYSTEM AND CREDIT GUARANTEE PROGRAMS

OpenAIRE

Turgay GECER

2012-01-01

Credit system is an integrated architecture consisted of financial information, credit rating, credit risk management, receivables and credit insurance systems, credit derivative markets and credit guarantee programs. The main purpose of the credit system is to provide the functioning of all credit channels and to make it easy to access of credit sources demanded by all of real and legal persons in any economic system. Credit guarantee program, the one of prominent elements of the credit syst...

Credit Recovery Programs. What Works Clearinghouse Intervention Report

Science.gov (United States)

What Works Clearinghouse, 2015

2015-01-01

"Credit recovery programs" allow high school students to recover course credit, through in-school, online, or mixed modes, for classes they previously failed. The WWC reviewed the research on these programs and their impacts on middle school, junior high school, or high school students at risk of dropping out or who have already dropped…

Economic policy uncertainty, credit risks and banks lending decisions: Evidence from Chinese commercial banks

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Qinwei Chi; Wenjing Li

2017-01-01

Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks’ credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positive connections among EPU and non-performing loan ratios, loan concentrations and the normal loan migration rate. This indicates that EPU increases banks’ credit risks and negatively influences loan size, especially for joint-equity banks. Given the increasing credit risks generated by EPU, banks can improve operational performance by reducing loan sizes. Further research indicates that the effects of EPU on banks’ credit risks and lending decisions are moderated by the marketization level, with financial depth moderating the effect on banks’ credit risks and strengthening it on lending decisions.

75 FR 54020 - Federal Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-03

... Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score Requirements AGENCY... acceptable risks of financial loss, not unacceptable risks.\\2\\ \\2\\ While the Federal Credit Reform Act of..., specific to each applicant. Lower credit scores indicate greater risk of default on any new credit extended...

A random matrix approach to credit risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael C Münnix

Full Text Available We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided.

A random matrix approach to credit risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Münnix, Michael C; Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas

2014-01-01

We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided.

Credit Risk Management in Banking Institutions: Comparison between Chinese Banks and UK Banks

OpenAIRE

YU, LIN

2009-01-01

The recent international financial market turmoil has a great effect on the banking industry; accordingly it is very necessary to investigate the topic of the credit risk management. This paper mainly discusses the importance, current situation, ways and guidelines of the credit risk management for the banking industry. A large number of literatures are integrated in order to illustrate and explain recent developments in both methods and principles of credit risk management. Meanwhile, some e...

The influence of external factors on the credit risk in leasing industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gholamreza Farsad Amanollahi

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Credit risk consists of probability of non-return, which may be in the form of bankruptcy or a decrease in financial and credit situation of the lessee. The variables are extracted from the Central Bank. In this study the independent variables are measured with six factors that are called external factors. The external factors are size of leasing, ownership interest rate, foreign exchange, inflation, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP. The present study uses related observations from 31 leasing companies from 2008 to 2013 to find out the determinants of the credit risk. The combined evidences suggest that internal factors such as upfront prepayment, credit insurance contract, security deposits, time and period contract, collateral and guarantees, contract amount, as well as external factors such as interest rate, inflation, foreign exchange, Gross Domestic Product infrastructure, and credit risk are determinants in the policy-making process involving the industrial leasing. Furthermore, the empirical results indicate the size of leasing and ownership are not the significant determinants of credit risk. The results of this dissertation provide several implications for policy-makers in the leasing industry. Policy-makers will be better off employing different procedures for leasing activities in the leasing industry.

12 CFR 652.65 - Risk-based capital stress test.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

...) You will use Corporation loan-level data to implement the credit risk component of the risk-based... Service corporate income tax schedule, as further described in appendix A to this subpart. (b) Credit risk. The credit risk part estimates loan losses during a period of sustained economic stress. (1) For each...

7 CFR 982.64 - Creditable promotion and advertising reports.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 8 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Creditable promotion and advertising reports. 982.64... promotion and advertising reports. Each handler shall file such reports of creditable promotion including paid advertising conducted pursuant to § 982.58 as recommended by the Board and approved by the...

Understanding Credit Risk: A Classroom Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Servatka, Maros; Theocharides, George

2011-01-01

This classroom experiment introduces students to the notion of credit risk and expected return, by allowing them to trade on comparable corporate bond issues from two types of markets: investment-grade and high-yield markets. Investment-grade issues have a lower probability of default than high-yield issues and thus provide a lower yield.…

75 FR 61842 - Fair Credit Reporting Affiliate Marketing Regulations

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-06

... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Thrift Supervision Fair Credit Reporting Affiliate Marketing... concerning the following information collection. Title of Proposal: Fair Credit Reporting Affiliate Marketing... person from using certain information received from an affiliate to make a solicitation for marketing...

Leading internal and external sources of credit risk in the top South African banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tankiso Moloi

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper aimed at identifying the leading credit risk indicators in the South African banking context as well as the development of an integrated leading credit risk indicator model. A content analysis was used as a data extraction methodology and structural equation modelling was used as a data analysis methodology. The results obtained indicated that utilising the structural equation modelling, gross savings, and prime overdraft rates, number of judgements, business insolvencies and unemployment rates were formulated as leading economic and market (external indicators of credit risk in the South African banking context. Similarly, utilising the principal component analysis, bank asset quality, bank asset concentration as well as bank trading and hedging activities were formulated as leading bank specific (internal indicators of credit risk in the South African banking context. The Integrated Leading Credit Risk Indicator Model (ICRIM was formulated utilising the accepted leading credit risk indicators. The ICRIM parameters were benchmarked against the generally accepted fit indices such as the RMSEA, comparative fit (baseline comparison as well as the Hoelter and its results output were found to be consistent with these generally accepted fit indices

CREDIT RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE ROMANIAN BANKING SYSTEM. EVIDENCE FROM THE RECENT FINANCIAL CRISIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anamaria Avadanei

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The financial crisis followed by the recession has adversely affected the quality of Romanian banking assets. The aim of this paper is to point out the implications of credit risk in the Romanian banking system following the accelerate dynamics of credit activity before the financial crisis and the effects vs. solutions proposed and implemented in recent years. Structured on four parts, the study presents the recent contributions in the crisis-lending relationship, the main features of the Romanian banking system, the evaluation of credit risk in terms of numbers, facts, actions and a short analysis of the correlation between credit indicators (consumer credit, credit risk ratio, medium exchange rate and the number of employees in the economy. To conclude, we propose to define the key points of the future Romanian banking activity.

75 FR 77048 - Fair Credit Reporting Affiliate Marketing Regulations

Science.gov (United States)

2010-12-10

... received from an affiliate to make a solicitation for marketing purposes to the consumer, unless the... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Thrift Supervision Fair Credit Reporting Affiliate Marketing... Proposal: Fair Credit Reporting Affiliate Marketing Regulations. OMB Number: 1550-0112. Form Number: N/A...

Application of a rule extraction algorithm family based on the Re-RX algorithm to financial credit risk assessment from a Pareto optimal perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoichi Hayashi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Historically, the assessment of credit risk has proved to be both highly important and extremely difficult. Currently, financial institutions rely on the use of computer-generated credit scores for risk assessment. However, automated risk evaluations are currently imperfect, and the loss of vast amounts of capital could be prevented by improving the performance of computerized credit assessments. A number of approaches have been developed for the computation of credit scores over the last several decades, but these methods have been considered too complex without good interpretability and have therefore not been widely adopted. Therefore, in this study, we provide the first comprehensive comparison of results regarding the assessment of credit risk obtained using 10 runs of 10-fold cross validation of the Re-RX algorithm family, including the Re-RX algorithm, the Re-RX algorithm with both discrete and continuous attributes (Continuous Re-RX, the Re-RX algorithm with J48graft, the Re-RX algorithm with a trained neural network (Sampling Re-RX, NeuroLinear, NeuroLinear+GRG, and three unique rule extraction techniques involving support vector machines and Minerva from four real-life, two-class mixed credit-risk datasets. We also discuss the roles of various newly-extended types of the Re-RX algorithm and high performance classifiers from a Pareto optimal perspective. Our findings suggest that Continuous Re-RX, Re-RX with J48graft, and Sampling Re-RX comprise a powerful management tool that allows the creation of advanced, accurate, concise and interpretable decision support systems for credit risk evaluation. In addition, from a Pareto optimal perspective, the Re-RX algorithm family has superior features in relation to the comprehensibility of extracted rules and the potential for credit scoring with Big Data.

FINANCIAL RISK IN CREDITS TO THE CONSUMPTION OF THE VENEZUELAN BANKING SYSTEM 2008-2015

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Manuel Díaz

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this research was to analyze the financial risk in the consumption credits of the banking system of Venezuela between 2008-2015. The theoretical support was made based on Cóndor & Cajamarca (2014, monitoring credit risk is essential to preserve the stability of the financial system. The type of research was descriptive with a longitudinal trend design. Consumer loans accounted for 21% of the banking economy; these loans grew at an annual average of 17%, the delinquency and total portfolio coverage indicators showed a downward trend. This shows that the profile of potential borrowers by banks has been successful.

Analysis of empirical determinants of credit risk in the banking sector of the Republic of Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Račić Željko

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is the detection and analysis of empirical determinants of credit risk in the banking sector of the Republic of Serbia. The paper is based on an analysis of results of the application of the linear regression model, during the period from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2014. There are three main findings. Firstly, the higher lending activity of banks contributes to the increasing share of high-risk loans in the total withdrawn loans (delayed effect of 3 years. Secondly, the growth of loans as opposed to deposits contributes to the increased exposure of banks to credit risk. Thirdly, the factors that reduce the exposure of banks to credit risk increase profitability, growth of interest rate spread and real GDP growth. Bearing in mind the overall market conditions and dynamics of the economic recovery of the country, there is a general conclusion based on the results that in the coming period the question of non-performing loans (NPLs in the Republic of Serbia will present a challenge for both lenders and borrowers.

High-Risk Health and Credit Behavior among 18- to 25-Year-Old College Students

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Troy; Moore, Monique

2007-01-01

The number of students accumulating credit card debt--and the amount of debt itself--on college campuses is increasing. If high-risk credit and health behavior are associated, health behavior interventions might apply to high-risk credit behavior. Objective: The authors' purpose was to examine these possible associations. Participants and Methods:…

Credit scoring analysis using weighted k nearest neighbor

Science.gov (United States)

Mukid, M. A.; Widiharih, T.; Rusgiyono, A.; Prahutama, A.

2018-05-01

Credit scoring is a quatitative method to evaluate the credit risk of loan applications. Both statistical methods and artificial intelligence are often used by credit analysts to help them decide whether the applicants are worthy of credit. These methods aim to predict future behavior in terms of credit risk based on past experience of customers with similar characteristics. This paper reviews the weighted k nearest neighbor (WKNN) method for credit assessment by considering the use of some kernels. We use credit data from a private bank in Indonesia. The result shows that the Gaussian kernel and rectangular kernel have a better performance based on the value of percentage corrected classified whose value is 82.4% respectively.

Sample-path large deviations in credit risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leijdekker, V.J.G.; Mandjes, M.R.H.; Spreij, P.J.C.

2011-01-01

The event of large losses plays an important role in credit risk. As these large losses are typically rare, and portfolios usually consist of a large number of positions, large deviation theory is the natural tool to analyze the tail asymptotics of the probabilities involved. We first derive a

12 CFR 955.6 - Risk-based capital requirement for acquired member assets.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... losses as support for the credit risk of all AMA estimated by the Bank to represent a credit risk that is...) Recalculation of credit enhancement. For risk-based capital purposes, each Bank shall recalculate the estimated... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement for acquired...

Effect of internal controls on credit risk among listed Spanish banks

OpenAIRE

Akwaa-Sekyi, Ellis Kofi; Moreno Gené, Jordi

2016-01-01

Purpose: The paper examines the effectiveness of internal control systems, explores the exposure of Spanish banks to the dangers of default as a result of internal control systems and establishes a relationship between internal controls and credit risk. Design/Methodology/Approach: Quantitative research approach is used to test hypotheses on the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in Spain. Data from Bankscope and company websites from 2004-2013 were used...

Liquidity and Credit Risk in Fixed Income Markets

OpenAIRE

Vonhoff, Volker

2011-01-01

1 Introduction 2 The Term Structure of Liquidity Premia in the U.S. Treasury Market 3 Liquidity Premia in the Market for German Bunds and STRIPS 4 Liquidity and Credit Risk Premia in the Pfandbrief Market

Credit Booms and Busts in Emerging Markets: The Role of Bank Governance and Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Brown, Martin; Andries, Alin Marius

2014-01-01

This paper investigates to what extent risk management and corporate governance mitigate the involvement of banks in credit boom and bust cycles. Using a unique, hand-collected dataset on 156 banks from Central and Eastern Europe during 2005-2012, we assess whether banks with stronger risk management and corporate governance display more moderate credit growth in the pre-crisis credit boom as well as a smaller credit contraction and fewer credit losses in the crisis period. With respect to ba...

Pre-counseling education for low literacy women at risk of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (HBOC): patient experiences using the Cancer Risk Education Intervention Tool (CREdIT).

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph, Galen; Beattie, Mary S; Lee, Robin; Braithwaite, Dejana; Wilcox, Carolina; Metrikin, Maya; Lamvik, Kate; Luce, Judith

2010-10-01

The Cancer Risk Education Intervention Tool (CREdIT) is a computer-based (non-interactive) slide presentation designed to educate low-literacy, and ethnically and racially diverse public hospital patients at risk of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (HBOC) about genetics. To qualitatively evaluate participants' experience with and perceptions of a genetic education program as an adjunct to genetic counseling, we conducted direct observations of the intervention, semi-structured in person interviews with 11 women who viewed CREdIT, and post-counseling questionnaires with the two participating genetic counselors. Five themes emerged from the analysis of interviews: (1) genetic counseling and testing for breast/ovarian cancer was a new concept; (2) CREdIT's story format was particularly appealing; (3) changes in participants' perceived risk for breast cancer varied; (4) some misunderstandings about individual risk and heredity persisted after CREdIT and counseling; (5) the context for viewing CREdIT shaped responses to the presentation. Observations demonstrated ways to make the information provided in CREdIT and by genetic counselors more consistent. In a post-session counselor questionnaire, counselors' rating of the patient's preparedness before the session was significantly higher for patients who viewed CREdIT prior to their appointments than for other patients. This novel educational tool fills a gap in HBOC education by tailoring information to women of lower literacy and diverse ethnic/racial backgrounds. The tool was well received by interview participants and counselors alike. Further study is needed to examine the varied effects of CREdIT on risk perception. In addition, the implementation of CREdIT in diverse clinical settings and the cultural adaptation of CREdIT to specific populations reflect important areas for future work.

Optimal replenishment and credit policy in supply chain inventory model under two levels of trade credit with time- and credit-sensitive demand involving default risk

Science.gov (United States)

Mahata, Puspita; Mahata, Gour Chandra; Kumar De, Sujit

2018-03-01

Traditional supply chain inventory modes with trade credit usually only assumed that the up-stream suppliers offered the down-stream retailers a fixed credit period. However, in practice the retailers will also provide a credit period to customers to promote the market competition. In this paper, we formulate an optimal supply chain inventory model under two levels of trade credit policy with default risk consideration. Here, the demand is assumed to be credit-sensitive and increasing function of time. The major objective is to determine the retailer's optimal credit period and cycle time such that the total profit per unit time is maximized. The existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution to the presented model are examined, and an easy method is also shown to find the optimal inventory policies of the considered problem. Finally, numerical examples and sensitive analysis are presented to illustrate the developed model and to provide some managerial insights.

Comparison of different methods of credit risk management of the commercial bank to accelerate lending activities for SME segment

OpenAIRE

Cipovová, Eva; Dlasková, Gabriela

2016-01-01

The contribution is dealing with selected assessments of the most important risk in the banking sector in the Czech Republic. The aim of this article was to quantify capital requirement for individual methodologies of credit risk management on the designed portfolio with corporate loans with use of collateral using collaterals as techniques to reduce credit risk of commercial bank. Firstly, the aim of this article is to quantify the capital requirements using the Internal Rating Based Approac...

Credit risk disclosure in the annual financial statements of Bulgarian banks

OpenAIRE

Anita Atanassova; Nadezhda Popova-Yosifova

2018-01-01

The paper analyzes the credit risk disclosure in the annual financial statements of Bulgarian banks for 2015 and 2016. Banks are ranked according to the level of credit risk disclosure, in accordance with the requirements of international accounting regulations and in relation to financial and regulatory ratios linked to capital adequacy. As a result of the conducted empirical study, it is concluded that banks' management is not particularly inclined to make full disclosures and actively to d...

ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CREDIT RISK MAN ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

User

The study was conducted using 20 Micro-firms in Accra which ... Journal of Science and Technology, Vol. ... RESEARCH PAPER ... capital (measured by the borrower's net worth), ... number of firms existing in the market and the ... agers and/or staff of the credit management .... the firm's risk tolerance and the level of profit-.

Fundamental determinants of credit default risk for European and American banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to identify the fundamental variables driving banks’ credit default swaps. Quarterly data from 2004 to 2015 for European and American banks have been used. The analysis has been prepared through static panel data models. The following hypothesis has been put forward: the earnings potential, and economic uncertainty significantly influence credit risk. The independent variables used are CAMELS factors – Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. The CDS spreads are most sensitive to the market risk factors whereas capital adequacy, earnings and liquidity indicators have weaker impact.

The Effect of Credit Lines and Risks on Operations of Microfinance ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... and make sure that loans are used for the purpose for which they were given as this will reduce the number of non performing loans. Keywords: Microfinance, Microfinance banks, Credit lines, Credit risks, Banks' depositors. International Journal of Development and Management Review (INJODEMAR) Vol. 7 June, 2012 ...

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE LIQUIDITY RISK IN THE MANAGEMENT OF THE CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Costea Ciprian-Dan

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The credit institutions management faces nowadays new and important challenges, of which the most important is the central role the liquidity risk management takes in the overall banking management complexity. This shows that liquidity risk in at the top of attention in the modern banking management, all the other banking risks being subsequent to this one. International regulations and settlers come to sustain the rising importance of liquidity risk in modern credit institution management.

Credit risk migration rates modeling as open systems: A micro-simulation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Landini, S.; Uberti, M.; Casellina, S.

2018-05-01

The last financial crisis of 2008 stimulated the development of new Regulatory Criteria (commonly known as Basel III) that pushed the banking activity to become more prudential, either in the short and the long run. As well known, in 2014 the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) promulgated the new International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) for financial instruments that will become effective in January 2018. Since the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans was identified as a weakness in existing accounting standards, the IASB has introduced an Expected Loss model that requires more timely recognition of credit losses. Specifically, new standards require entities to account both for expected losses from when the impairments are recognized for the first time and for full loan lifetime; moreover, a clear preference toward forward looking models is expressed. In this new framework, it is necessary a re-thinking of the widespread standard theoretical approach on which the well known prudential model is founded. The aim of this paper is then to define an original methodological approach to migration rates modeling for credit risk which is innovative respect to the standard method from the point of view of a bank as well as in a regulatory perspective. Accordingly, the proposed not-standard approach considers a portfolio as an open sample allowing for entries, migrations of stayers and exits as well. While being consistent with the empirical observations, this open-sample approach contrasts with the standard closed-sample method. In particular, this paper offers a methodology to integrate the outcomes of the standard closed-sample method within the open-sample perspective while removing some of the assumptions of the standard method. Three main conclusions can be drawn in terms of economic capital provision: (a) based on the Markovian hypothesis with a-priori absorbing state at default, the standard closed-sample method is to be abandoned

Directions of coordination of financial accounting standards with principles for credit risk management in banks

OpenAIRE

Voloshyn, Ihor

2014-01-01

This paper examines ways of overcoming inconsistencies between IFRS and modern concepts of credit risk management, namely, expected loss model and risk-adjusted loan pricing. Also, it is considered an issue of acceptable levels of concentration risk in bank credit portfolio.

Modernization of credit relations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.V. Volosovich

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Nowadays it is essential to modernize credit relations in the conditions of global economy transformations. This is due to the influence of integration processes on credit relations and transformation of the risks inherent in the credit field. The purpose of this article is to develop measures that help to improve the efficiency of interaction of credit relations’ participants. Modernization of credit relations is based on the interaction of its main and indirect subjects who belong to the subsystems of loans granting, deposits attraction and provision of related services. Its goal is to pass from extensive to intensive model of interaction between the subjects of credit relations. Components of the credit relations modernization are the following: institutional modernization, which is based on the interaction of credit relations’ subjects, and ensures the development of competition in all credit market’s segments, the creation of its corresponding infrastructure, qualitative change in the approaches of regulation and supervision; technological modernization, which involves the formation of joint products on the credit market and the formation of an integrated informational and analytical system. In the result of the credit relations’ modernization it is expected to achieve synergies between the subjects of credit relations, that will lead to changes in the business architecture of the financial market.

Use of Modern Methods of Credit Portfolio Risk Management in Commercial Banks of Russian Federation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dmitrii S. Melnyk

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the structure and factors of credit portfolio risk, analyses existing models of portfolio risk assessment and develops recommendations on the implementation of risk management adapted methods, presents recommendations on the optimization of the approach to credit risk minimization in Russian banking system.

Dual Credit Report

Science.gov (United States)

Light, Noreen

2016-01-01

In 2015, legislation to improve access to dual-credit programs and to reduce disparities in access and completion--particularly for low income and underrepresented students--was enacted. The new law focused on expanding access to College in the High School but acknowledged issues in other dual-credit programs and reinforced the notion that cost…

Two Stage Fuzzy Methodology to Evaluate the Credit Risks of Investment Projects

OpenAIRE

O. Badagadze; G. Sirbiladze; I. Khutsishvili

2014-01-01

The work proposes a decision support methodology for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects. The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation. Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.

The Credit-Risk Decision Mechanism on Fixed Loan Interest Rate with Imperfect Information

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2001-01-01

In this paper, decision mechanism of credit-risk for banks is studied when the loan interest rate is fixed with asymmetry information in credit market. We give out the designs of rationing and non-rationing on credit risky decision mechanism when collateral value provided by an entrepreneur is not less than the minimum demands of the bank. It shows that under the action of the mechanism, banks could efficiently identify the risk size of the project. Finally, the condition of the project investigation of bank is given over again.

Measuring Credit Capacity on Danish Farms Using DEA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friis Pedersen, Michael; Vesterlund Olsen, Jakob

2013-01-01

have important implications for risk management practice, investment and technology adoption and related policy issues. The method is limited by the possibility of strategic behavior of lenders during credit cycle busts. In credit cycle booms, the method gives a good basis for the estimates of change...... in credit reserves. Practical implications: In a period of increasing credit reserves, risk management institutions are unlikely to develop. Like agricultural policy, access to credit may crowd out market-based risk management. Originality/value: The study represents a novel application and interpretation......Purpose:The purpose of this paper is to introduce a novel measure of access to credit suited to estimate the relative change in credit reserves. Design/methodology/approach: A debt possibility frontier is estimated using data envelopment analysis and the Malmquist index is calculated. The Malmquist...

P2P Network Lending, Loss Given Default and Credit Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guangyou Zhou

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Peer-to-peer (P2P network lending is a new mode of internet finance that still holds credit risk as its main risk. According to the internal rating method of the New Basel Accord, in addition to the probability of default, loss given default is also one of the important indicators of evaluation credit risks. Proceeding from the perspective of loss given default (LGD, this paper conducts an empirical study on the probability distribution of LGDs of P2P as well as its influencing factors with the transaction data of Lending Club. The results show that: (1 the LGDs of P2P loans presents an obvious unimodal distribution, the peak value is relatively high and tends to concentrate with the decrease of the borrower’s credit rating, indicating that the distribution of LGDs of P2P lending is similar to that of unsecured bonds; (2 The total asset of the borrower has no significant impact on LGD, the credit rating and the debt-to-income ratio exert a significant negative impact, while the term and amount of the loan produce a relatively strong positive impact. Therefore, when evaluating the borrower’s repayment ability, it is required to pay more attention to its assets structure rather than the size of its total assets. When carrying out risk control for the P2P platform, it is necessary to give priority to the control of default rate.

Analysis of the liquidity risk in credit unions: a logit multinomial approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosiane Maria Lima Gonçalves

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Liquidity risk in financial institutions is associated to balance between working capital and financial demands. Other factors that affect credit union liquidity are an unanticipated increase of withdrawals without an offsetting amount of new deposits, and the lack of ability in promoting the product geographical diversification. The objective of this study is to analyze Minas Gerais state credit union liquidity risk and its factor determinants. Financial ratios and the multinomial logit model are used. The cooperatives were classified in five categories of liquidity risk: very low, low, medium, high and very high. The empirical results indicate that high levels of liquidity are related to smaller values of the outsourcing capital use, immobilization of the turnover capital, and provision ratios. So, they are associated to larger values of the deposit total/credit operations, and asset growth ratios.

16 CFR 313.16 - Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... CONGRESS PRIVACY OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL INFORMATION Relation to Other Laws; Effective Date § 313.16 Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act. Nothing in this part shall be construed to modify, limit, or... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act. 313...

Credit risk exposure with interest and currency swaps

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Coppes, R.C.; Stokking, E.J.

1996-01-01

The increased use of financial derivatives like interest rate and currency swap contracts has drawn much attention, as it exposes banks to non-performance by their counterparts. This credit risk exposure is of great concern to monetary authorities, e.g. the Bank for International Settlements. Ln

Modelling Counterparty Credit Risk in Czech Interest Rate Swaps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lenka Křivánková

2017-01-01

Full Text Available According to the Basel Committee’s estimate, three quarters of counterparty credit risk losses during the financial crisis in 2008 originate from credit valuation adjustment’s losses and not from actual defaults. Therefore, from 2015, the Third Basel Accord (EU, 2013a and (EU, 2013b instructed banks to calculate the capital requirement for the risk of credit valuation adjustment (CVA. Banks are trying to model CVA to hold the prescribed standards and also reach the lowest possible impact on their profit. In this paper, we try to model CVA using methods that are in compliance with the prescribed standards and also achieve the smallest possible impact on the bank’s earnings. To do so, a data set of interest rate swaps from 2015 is used. The interest rate term structure is simulated using the Hull-White one-factor model and Monte Carlo methods. Then, the probability of default for each counterparty is constructed. A safe level of CVA is reached in spite of the calculated the CVA achieving a lower level than CVA previously used by the bank. This allows a reduction of capital requirements for banks.

12 CFR 216.16 - Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... PRIVACY OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL INFORMATION (REGULATION P) Relation to Other Laws; Effective Date § 216.16 Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act. Nothing in this part shall be construed to modify, limit, or... 12 Banks and Banking 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act. 216.16...

12 CFR 716.16 - Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... PRIVACY OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL INFORMATION Relation to Other Laws; Effective Date § 716.16 Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act. Nothing in this part shall be construed to modify, limit, or supersede the... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act. 716.16...

12 CFR 332.16 - Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... GENERAL POLICY PRIVACY OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL INFORMATION Relation to Other Laws; Effective Date § 332.16 Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act. Nothing in this part shall be construed to modify, limit, or... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act. 332.16...

31 CFR 29.518 - Reporting delinquent debts to credit bureaus.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Reporting delinquent debts to credit... Collection Collection of Overpayments § 29.518 Reporting delinquent debts to credit bureaus. (a) Notice. If a debtor's response to the demand letter does not result in payment in full, payment by offset, or payment...

Measuring the coupled risks: A copula-based CVaR model

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xubiao; Gong, Pu

2009-01-01

Integrated risk management for financial institutions requires an approach for aggregating risk types (such as market and credit) whose distributional shapes vary considerably. The financial institutions often ignore risks' coupling influence so as to underestimate the financial risks. We constructed a copula-based Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) model for market and credit risks. This technique allows us to incorporate realistic marginal distributions that capture essential empirical features of these risks, such as skewness and fat-tails while allowing for a rich dependence structure. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to implement the model. Our results indicate that the coupled risks for the listed company's stock maybe are undervalued if credit risk is ignored, especially for the listed company with bad credit quality.

12 CFR 573.16 - Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... CONSUMER FINANCIAL INFORMATION Relation to Other Laws; Effective Date § 573.16 Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act. Nothing in this part shall be construed to modify, limit, or supersede the operation of the... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act. 573.16...

Credit Risk Analysis Using Machine and Deep Learning Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Martey Addo

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Due to the advanced technology associated with Big Data, data availability and computing power, most banks or lending institutions are renewing their business models. Credit risk predictions, monitoring, model reliability and effective loan processing are key to decision-making and transparency. In this work, we build binary classifiers based on machine and deep learning models on real data in predicting loan default probability. The top 10 important features from these models are selected and then used in the modeling process to test the stability of binary classifiers by comparing their performance on separate data. We observe that the tree-based models are more stable than the models based on multilayer artificial neural networks. This opens several questions relative to the intensive use of deep learning systems in enterprises.

Do At-Risk Students Benefit When NovaNET Is Used for Credit Recovery?

Science.gov (United States)

Volkerding, Rebecca Lynn

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if it is effective and appropriate to place all students needing credit recovery in computer-based classes regardless of age, risk ratio, and their previous failing grade. Driven by the NCLB mandate for schools to produce greater gains and graduate all students in 4.5 years, districts are now using online…

IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON THE CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN A BANK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerzy Piotr Gwizdała

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this article is to present the role of risk in the activity of a commercial bank with particular reference to the global financial crisis. The introductory part presents the origins of economic crises, especially the contemporary crisis from 2007-2010, which began in the United States subprime mortgage market. Dating back to the 1831, considerations allow to undetstand the causes of the crises. Then the impact of the global financial crisis on the scale of the crediting activities of banks in Poland was analyzed, presenting a credit portfolio structure, with a particular focus on the structure of loans to households and enterprises. In the second part of the article the process of credit risk management was discussed, paying attention to the crucial role of the bank's credit policy, and the conditions and prospects of commercial bank credit activity development were specified. It presents also the criteria for the proper credit management, indicating as the optimal solution the development of the so-called „credit textbook”.

Credit risk in the pool-implications for private capital investments in Brazilian power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rocha, Katia; Alcaraz Garcia, Francisco A.

2006-01-01

The new Brazilian Electric Sector Regulation of 2004 introduced two negotiation markets: the regulated pool and the free market. Competition in the pool is enforced via energy auctions, where the winning generator has to sign long-term power purchase agreements simultaneously with all distributors at the bidding-price. To estimate the appropriate credit risk spread of the pool, we implement a clustering methodology to rank and rate the distributors. The results show an average spread between 5.75% and 8.5%, which corresponds to a credit rating of B- according to the spreads available in Reuters 2004. This estimation is at least 208 basis points higher than the credit rating Ba1/BB+ assigned to the distributors by the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) in the periodic tariff revisions. Distributors with higher risk/spread are located in the South-Southeast, compared to the low risk/spread ones concentrated in the North-Northeast. We estimate the opportunity cost of capital in real terms in the range of 13-16% to account for the credit risk of the pool. Essential to determine the bidding price at the auctions, this estimation is higher than the 11.26% opportunity cost estimated by ANEEL. The pool's credit risk has to be taken into consideration, especially for compensating new private capital investments in Brazilian power generation

Credit Risk Management and Interest Income of Banks in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fapetu, Oladapo

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This study examines the impact of credit risk on the interest income of banks in Nigeria between the period of 2000 and 2014. Unbalanced panel data analysis was used to estimate the model with unit root test, Breusch Pagan test, trend analysis, descriptive statistics, Perasan CD Test, heteroskedasticity test, heterogeneity test, serial correlation test, Jarquebera, F-statistics, random effect, fixed effect, time effect, Prob value, Hausman test and rho as the estimation parameters. The study discovered that NPL, LLP and LA are statistically significant in explaining the variation in interest income across banks in Nigeria, while LA/TD is not statistically significant in explaining the variation in interest income across banks in Nigeria. Based on this, the study recommends that regular update of credit policy and adequate measures to monitor loans should be put in place by banks in Nigeria, as these measures will reduce bad loans and ultimately cause a reduction in loan loss provisions.

76 FR 35138 - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Farmer Mac Risk-Based...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-16

... Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Farmer Mac Risk-Based Capital Stress Test, Version 5.0 AGENCY: Farm Credit... credit rating agency) in regulations addressing the Risk-Based Capital Stress Test (RBCST or stress test...) (repealing and replacing Pub. L. 110-234). B. Risk-Based Capital and Credit Ratings Under our rules, Farmer...

Integration Of Company’s Financial Data In Credit Risk Assessment Using A Multidimensional Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria – Monica Haralambie

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This paper is a detailed overview from theoretical and practical perspectives of a scoring system used by a financial institution in assessing the credit risk of a corporate client. The objective of this research was to demonstrate the importance of a scoring system for a credit institution when approving a loan application of a potential borrower. The complexity and importance of the topic makes it a subject of high interest for all type of credit institutions. We believe that through this work we were able to bring into discussion only a part of the specific issues related to credit risk management scoring systems and we believe that this work represents a support for future research

Efficient computation of exposure profiles for counterparty credit risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C.S.L. de Graaf (Kees); Q. Feng (Qian); B.D. Kandhai; C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)

2014-01-01

htmlabstractThree computational techniques for approximation of counterparty exposure for financial derivatives are presented. The exposure can be used to quantify so-called Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) and Potential Future Exposure (PFE), which are of utmost importance for modern risk

Strategic Importance of Credit Risk Management to Shareholders’ Wealth-Sustanance in Nigerian Banks: an Empirical Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adebisi Sunday Abayomi

2012-02-01

Full Text Available This study highlighted the roles and strategic importance of credit risk management in thebanking industry vis-à-vis sustenance of shareholders’ wealth. The authors examined whether areduction in the non-performing credits in banks’ loan portfolio will reveal a possible correlationbetween effective credit risk management administration and shareholder’s wealth. In testing this,secondary data were sourced from the randomly selected five banks financials (between the period of2006 to 2010 with the use of relevant ratios. Twohypotheses were tested using multiple regressionand correlation method. The result of hypothesis one showed that the calculated r – statistics (r =.429,p<0.05 was greater than the tabulated r – statistics (r =.381 showing that the test was significantat0.05 alpha level. The result of hypothesis two alsoshowed that the calculated r-statistics (r=.403,p<0.05 was greater than tabulated r-statistics (r=.381 at 0.05 level of significance which impliedthat, there was a significant relationship betweencredit risk management and shareholders’ wealth.Based on these results, the authors recommended that, the banking sector should strive to employobjective standards of professionalism, experienceand high integrity in placement of managers whoare responsible for managing the credit portfolios;for this will largely influence the quality of riskassets management and debt recovery which will in-turn engender confidence in the banking industryand ensure the sustenance of shareholders’ wealth and investment.

A multicriteria approach for rating the credit risk of financial institutions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baourakis, G.; Conisescu, M.; Dijk, van G.; Pardalos, P.M.; Zopounidis, C.

2009-01-01

Within the new bank regulatory context, the assessment of the credit risk of financial institutions is an important issue for supervising authorities and investors. This study explores the possibility of a developing risk assessment model for financial institutions using a multicriteria

Efficient Computation of Exposure Profiles for Counterparty Credit Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Graaf, C.S.L.; Feng, Q.; Kandhai, D.; Oosterlee, C.W.

2014-01-01

Three computational techniques for approximation of counterparty exposure for financial derivatives are presented. The exposure can be used to quantify so-called Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) and Potential Future Exposure (PFE), which are of utmost importance for modern risk management in the

76 FR 79307 - Fair Credit Reporting (Regulation V)

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-21

... Direct disputes. Subpart F--Duties of Users Regarding Obtaining and Using Consumer Reports 1022.50-1022... construction. Subpart I--Duties of Users of Consumer Reports Regarding Identity Theft 1022.80-1022.81 [Reserved... Prevention of deceptive marketing of free credit reports. Subpart O--Miscellaneous Duties of Consumer...

Two retailer-supplier supply chain models with default risk under trade credit policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chengfeng; Zhao, Qiuhong

2016-01-01

The purpose of the paper is to formulate two uncooperative replenishment models with demand and default risk which are the functions of the trade credit period, i.e., a Nash equilibrium model and a supplier-Stackelberg model. Firstly, we present the optimal results of decentralized decision and centralized decision without trade credit. Secondly, we derive the existence and uniqueness conditions of the optimal solutions under the two games, respectively. Moreover, we present a set of theorems and corollary to determine the optimal solutions. Finally, we provide an example and sensitivity analysis to illustrate the proposed strategy and optimal solutions. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the total profits of supply chain under the two games both are better than the results under the centralized decision only if the optimal trade credit period isn't too short. It also reveals that the size of trade credit period, demand, retailer's profit and supplier's profit have strong relationship with the increasing demand coefficient, wholesale price, default risk coefficient and production cost. The major contribution of the paper is that we comprehensively compare between the results of decentralized decision and centralized decision without trade credit, Nash equilibrium and supplier-Stackelberg models with trade credit, and obtain some interesting managerial insights and practical implications.

A dynamic approach merging network theory and credit risk techniques to assess systemic risk in financial networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Petrone, Daniele; Latora, Vito

2018-04-03

The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network of exposures among banks. A potential loss distribution is obtained through a multi-period Monte Carlo simulation that considers the probability of default (PD) of the banks and their tendency of defaulting in the same time interval. A contagion process increases the PD of banks exposed toward distressed counterparties. The systemic risk is measured by statistics of the loss distribution, while the contribution of each node is quantified by the new measures PDRank and PDImpact. We illustrate how the model works on the network of the European Global Systemically Important Banks. For a certain range of the banks' capital and of their assets volatility, our results reveal the emergence of a strong contagion regime where lower default correlation between banks corresponds to higher losses. This is the opposite of the diversification benefits postulated by standard credit risk models used by banks and regulators who could therefore underestimate the capital needed to overcome a period of crisis, thereby contributing to the financial system instability.

Credit risk transfer activities and systemic risk : How banks became less risky individually but posed greater risks to the financial system at the same time

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wagner, W.B.; Nijskens, R.G.M.

2011-01-01

A main cause of the crisis of 2007–2009 is the various ways through which banks have transferred credit risk in the financial system. We study the systematic risk of banks before the crisis, using two samples of banks respectively trading Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and issuing Collateralized Loan

Credit Risk Determinants in Banking Sector: A Comparative Analysis of the PIB (Pakistan, India and Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Waqas

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of the empirical study is to investigate credit risk determinants in banking sectors across three kinds of South Asian economies. An accumulated sample of 105 unbalanced panel data of financial firms over the period of 2000-2015, by applying General Method of Moment (GMM estimation techniques one-step at the difference in order to identify factors influencing credit risk. This study is inspired by two broad categories of explanatory variables which are bank-specific and macroeconomic. Bank-specific factors influencing unsystematic risk, while macroeconomic factors promoting systematic risk. The study uses a proxy of non-performing loans for credit risk in banking sectors of Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. The empirical results have been found aligned with theoretical arguments and literature as expected. In comparison, NPLs in Pakistan is greater than India and Bangladesh, while India has the lowest ratio of non-performing loans. The study documents that bank-specific factors (inefficiency, profitability, capital ratio and leverage have a significant contribution towards credit risk. Further, the study also finds a significant impact of macroeconomic variables on non-performing loans. While, the result in the case of Bangladesh predict contradictions, that have no significant effect on non-performing loans at various level. The overall results indicate that credit risk is not influenced by only external factors but also affect by internal factors like bad management and skimping etc.

Risk of Debt-Based Financing in Indonesian Islamic Banking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kharisya Ayu Effendi

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to know the risk of debt-based financing in Islamic banking in Indonesia by using an accounting based calculation, those are NPF analysis, Credit risk Z-score and Altman Z-score. This study is telling about the risk of debt-based finacing on Indonesian Islamic banking using an accounting based measurement, those are NPF analysis, Credit Risk Z-score analysis and Altman Z-score analysis. The data was obtained from 2011 to 2015 from the website of each bank. The result is a risk on debt-based financing on Indonesian Islamic banking is low. The measurement using 3 accounting based measurement tool gives a consistent result, that is Indonesian Islamic banking use a debt-based financing have a high financial stability and a low risk.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i2.4821

Islamic Credit Risk Analysis Case Of Sudanese Banking Sector 2006-2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammed A. SirElkhatim

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Islamic banking system has been expanding so quickly over the past few years. Moreover it has been developing significantly around the non-Muslim territories including Middle Eastern countries Southeast Asian countries and European countries and even in North American countries. The existing of Islamic banks is to attract the customers who seek to avoid interest. The prediction of corporate bankruptcies is an Important and widely studied topic since it can have significant impact on bank lending decisions and profitability the ultimate purpose of credit risk management is to ensure that credit fund is of safety profitability and fluidity. At present it is extremely important of commercial banks to set up an early bank risk warning system.

Network topology and interbank credit risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

González-Avella, Juan Carlos; Hoffmann de Quadros, Vanessa; Iglesias, José Roberto

2016-01-01

Modern financial systems are greatly entangled. They exhibit a complex interdependence, including a network of bilateral exposures in the interbank market. The most frequent interaction consists in operations where institutions with surplus liquidity lend to those with a liquidity shortage. These loans may be interpreted as links between the banks and the links display features in some way representative of scale-free networks. While the interbank market is responsible for efficient liquidity allocation, it also introduces the possibility for systemic risk via financial contagion. Insolvency of one bank can propagate through links leading to insolvency of other banks. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of financial contagion in interbank networks whose distribution of links approaches a power law, as well as we improve previous models by introducing a simple mechanism to describe banks’ balance sheets, that are obtained from information on network connectivity. By varying the parameters for the creation of the network, several interbank networks are built, in which the concentration of debt and credit comes from the distribution of links. The results suggest that more connected networks that have a high concentration of credit are more resilient to contagion than other types of networks analyzed.

75 FR 52283 - Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Regarding Alternatives to the Use of Credit Ratings in the...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-25

... Alternatives to the Use of Credit Ratings in the Risk-Based Capital Guidelines of the Federal Banking Agencies... the use of external credit ratings in the regulations of the OCC. II. Risk-Based Capital Standards In.../joint22.htm . The agencies' risk-based capital standards reference credit ratings issued by NRSROs (credit...

Credit derivatives in emerging markets

OpenAIRE

Romain Rancière

2002-01-01

Credit Derivatives are securities that offer protection against credit or default risk of bonds or loans. The credit derivatives emerging market has grown rapidly and credit derivatives are widely used. This paper describes the emerging credit derivatives market structure. The current market activity is analyzed through elementary pricing dynamics and the study of the term structure of default risk. Focusing on the performance of credit derivatives in stress situation, including legal and mar...

Study of Commercial Bank Risk Monitoring Model in Individual Consumption Credit

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

刘春红

2003-01-01

With the development of individual consumption credit (ICC) in China, commercial banks have been exposed to more and more risks. The loan failure has been an important problem that the banking must face and revolve. This paper develops a factor system to explain how the borrower's risk is affected, and then establishes a risk monitoring model with AHP to pre-warn the banks how much the risk is.

Individual stock-option prices and credit spreads

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cremers, M.; Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.; Weinbaum, D.

2008-01-01

This paper introduces measures of volatility and jump risk that are based on individual stock options to explain credit spreads on corporate bonds. Implied volatilities of individual options are shown to contain useful information for credit spreads and improve on historical volatilities when

7 CFR 932.60 - Reports of acquisitions, sales, uses, shipments and creditable brand advertising.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... creditable brand advertising. 932.60 Section 932.60 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture... Reports of acquisitions, sales, uses, shipments and creditable brand advertising. (a) Each handler shall... shall file such reports of creditable brand advertising as recommended by the committee and approved by...

POSSIBILITIES OF IMPROVING THE METHODS AND TECHNIQUES USED IN THE SURVEILLANCE OF CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Balogh Peter

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Through their daily activities, credit institutions are subject to various risks which could affect both the bank and the whole banking system, national and transnational. The activity field of the banks, marked by volatility, by the internationalization and liberalization of the financial markets, is in a continuous change. The contagion effect, as it has been proved by the spread of the financial crisis effects, determines the surveillance authorities to pay increased attention to the financial risks and implicitly to the systemic risk. In this study, to start with, there shall be presented some aspects regarding the banking rating systems used by the surveillance authorities and then some ways of improving the models of managing credit risk in banks. In the end, there will be demonstrated that the risk profile of the banking institution has a determining role in the management of the credit portfolio.

75 FR 3647 - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Risk-Based Capital...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-22

... Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Risk-Based Capital Requirements AGENCY: Farm Credit Administration. ACTION... further directed FCA to estimate the credit risk on the portfolio covered by this new authority at a rate... component to directly recognize the credit risk on such loans.\\4\\ At the time of the Farm Bill's enactment...

Evaluation of Achieving a College Education Plus: A Credit-Based Transition Program

Science.gov (United States)

Luna, Gaye; Fowler, Michael

2011-01-01

This ex post facto study evaluated Achieving a College Education (ACE) Plus program, a credit-based transition program between a high school district and a community college. Achieving a College Education Plus is an early outreach program. It is designed to aid at-risk students in graduating from high school and making a smooth transition to…

Willingness to Overpay for Insurance and for Consumer Credit: Search and Risk Behavior Under Price Dispersion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergey MALAKHOV

2014-11-01

Full Text Available When income growth under price dispersion reduces the time of search and raises prices of purchases, the increase in purchase price can be presented as the increase in the willingness to pay for insurance or the willingness to pay for consumer credit. The optimal consumer decision represents the trade-off between the propensity to search for beneficial insurance or consumer credit, and marginal savings on insurance policy or consumer credit. Under price dispersion the indirect utility function takes the form of cubic parabola, where the risk aversion behavior ends at the saddle point of the comprehensive insurance or the complete consumer credit. The comparative static analysis of the saddle point of the utility function discovers the ambiguity of the departure from risk-neutrality. This ambiguity can produce the ordinary risk seeking behavior as well as mathematical catastrophes of Veblen-effect’s imprudence and over prudence of family altruism. The comeback to risk aversion is also ambiguous and it results either in increasing or in decreasing relative risk aversion. The paper argues that the decreasing relative risk aversion comes to the optimum quantity of money.

Explaining the level of credit spreads: Option-implied jump risk premia in a firm value model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cremers, K.J.M.; Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.

2008-01-01

We study whether option-implied jump risk premia can explain the high observed level of credit spreads. We use a structural jump-diffusion firm value model to assess the level of credit spreads generated by option-implied jump risk premia. Prices and returns of equity index and individual options

The Application of DEA Method in Evaluating Credit Risk of Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Feruś

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The subject of the present article is a new procedure forecasting credit risk of companies in Polish economy environment. What favors the suggested approach is the fact that in Poland, unlike in western countries, DEA method has not yet been implemented in order to assess credit risk that companies face. The research described in the article has been conducted on the basis of comparison of suggested DEA method with currently used procedures, namely point method, discriminative analysis and linear regression. Considering the research, it can be concluded that DEA method facilitates forecasting financial problems, including bankruptcy of companies in Polish economic conditions, and its effectiveness is comparable or even greater than approaches implemented so far.  

Evaluation of creditability and risk minimisation : The effect of accounting for intangibles

OpenAIRE

Lukiyanov, Artem

2005-01-01

The recent history knows numerous examples of creditor’s inability to evaluate financial solvency of the client correctly. Creditors’ risks do not only concern individual relations between the two parties but the economy in general. The standard loan-giving procedure considers evaluation based on a number of financial ratios. Using the standard method a company that in reality is creditable may sometimes be counted as insolvent by the bank – due to the structure of the balance sheet, for inst...

CAMELS-based Determinants for the Credit Rating of Turkish Deposit Banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serhat Yuksel

2015-10-01

Full Text Available This paper demonstrates the relationship between CAMELS ratios and credit ratings of deposit banks in Turkey. Annual data was used for the period between 2004 and 2014 in this study. Moreover, 20 deposit banks of Turkey were analyzed and 21 different ratios of CAMELS components were used. In addition to that, credit ratings of these banks were provided from Moody’s corporation or annual activity reports of the banks. After that, we created multi nominal logistic regression analysis in order to illustrate the relationship. The major finding in this study is that three components (Asset Quality, Management Quality, and Sensitivity to Market Risk of CAMELS have effects on credit ratings whereas the ratios related to Capital Adequacy and Earnings are not effective. As a result, it was recommended that Turkish deposit banks should concentrate on the percentage of fixed assets and interest income to have a better rating. Moreover, having high market share with respect to total assets and lower interest expense are also other important points for this purpose. On the other hand, Turkish deposit banks should control the proportion of financial assets and increase the amount of FX liquid assets to prevent credit ratings to decrease. Additionally, market share of banks for loans should not reach at high level for this objective.

75 FR 64785 - Corporate Credit Unions

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-20

... management (ALM) and credit risk, and whether to make modifications in the area of corporate governance. NCUA... the revisions, an analysis of how the final investment, credit risk, and asset liability provisions..., credit risk, ALM, liquidity, and capital measures that together should greatly reduce the systemic risk...

The Effect of Credit Risk and Capital Adequacy on the Profitability of Rural Banks in the Philippines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mendoza Rufo

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the credit risk and capital adequacy of the 567 rural banks in the Philippines to investigate how both variables affect bank profitability. Using the Arellano-Bond estimator, we found out that credit risk has a negative and statistically significant relationship with profitability. However, empirical analysis showed that capital adequacy has no significant impact on the profitability of rural banks in the Philippines. It is therefore necessary for the rural banks to examine more deeply if capital infusion would result in higher profitability than increasing debts. The study also implies that it is imperative for the banks to understand which risk factors have greater impact on their financial performance and use better risk-adjusted performance measurement to support their strategies. Rural banks should establish credit risk management that defines the process from initiation to approval of loans, taking into consideration the sound credit risk management practices issued by regulatory bodies. Moreover, rural banks need to enhance internal control measures to ensure the strict implementation of internal processes on lending operations.

An empirical approach to the credit risk assessment of a microfinance institution in Peru

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Lara Rubio

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The growth of micro-credit along with the excellent conditions to carry out microfinance activity in the economy and financial system of the Republic of Peru are pushing for Microfinance Institutions (IMF increased competition with banks in this segment business. Like in commercial banks, in microfinance questions such as: is this customer profitable?, What is the credit limit that I must accept to his/her application?, What interest rate should I charge to him/ her?, How I can reduce the risk default?, etc., are matters to be assessed properly. We propose a method that could facilitate improvement in customer qualification between failed and not failed. To this end, we propose a methodology that analyzes credit risk in the provision of microcredit through the design of a credit scoring model that we apply to a Development Agency for Small and Micro Enterprise (EDPYME, which is an IMF under the supervision by the Banking and Insurance Superintendency (SBS.

Value of burnup credit beyond actinides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lancaster, D.; Fuentes, E.; Kang, Chi.

1997-01-01

DOE has submitted a topical report to the NRC justifying burnup credit based only on actinide isotopes (U-234, U-235, U-236, U-238, Pu-238, Pu-239, Pu-240, Pu-241, Pu-242, and Am-241). When this topical report is approved, it will allow a great deal of the commercial spent nuclear fuel to be transported in significantly higher capacity casks. A cost savings estimate for shipping fuel in 32 assembly (burnup credit) casks as opposed to 24 assembly (non-burnup credit) casks was previously presented. Since that time, more detailed calculations have been performed using the methodology presented in the Actinide-Only Burnup Credit Topical Report. Loading curves for derated casks have been generated using actinide-only burnup credit and are presented in this paper. The estimates of cost savings due to burnup credit for shipping fuel utilizing 32, 30, 28, and 24 assembly casks where only the 24 assembly cask does not burnup credit have been created and are discussed. 4 refs., 2 figs

12 CFR 725.20 - Repayment, security and credit reporting agreements; other terms and conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Repayment, security and credit reporting agreements; other terms and conditions. 725.20 Section 725.20 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION REGULATIONS AFFECTING CREDIT UNIONS NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION CENTRAL LIQUIDITY...

MANAGEMENT OF CREDIT LOSSES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalya P. Anoshkina

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the problem of credit loss management topical for modern Russian science and banking practice. The bank’s lending activity is an integral and the most profitable sphere of banking activity. Banks need to take credit risks inherent in their core business and minimize their impact through the establishment of advanced risk management systems. The study, reflected in the present paper, has been conducted in order to determine approaches to the organization of credit loss management in banking. Analysis of the system of management of credit risks and credit losses has shown that they have different scope, object and purpose. In this connection, there is an objective necessity to create a special subsystem for the management of credit losses in banks. On the basis of common bank approaches to credit risk management, the paper develops models of credit loss management: a multi-level management model in the area of ‘operational-tactical-strategic management’ and a functional management model in the area of ‘technology-execution-control’. These models are important for the modern theory and practice of banking, as they allow the bank to manage credit losses on the entire time horizon of the management process, thus opening a wide range of opportunities for the creation and implementation of large-scale programs, as well as specific techniques. This study allows drawing a conclusion about the need to consider control credit losses as a strictly regulated multi-level process, in which each division is assigned with specific objectives, tasks, functions, formally enshrined in the relevant lists, job descriptions and other legal documents.

Management control of credit risk in the bank lending process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scheffer, S.B.

2004-01-01

Management control of credit risk in the bank lending processA casestudy to explore improvements from a managerial perspectiveAt the start of this project -back in 1998- new technologies and ideas were emerging among a new generation of financial engineering professionals who have been applying

12 CFR 614.4125 - Funding and discount relationships between Farm Credit Banks or agricultural credit banks and...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

..., Risk Management, Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation. (f) A direct lender association shall... Administration office that the Chief Examiner designates, and the Director, Risk Management, Farm Credit System... Credit Banks or agricultural credit banks and direct lender associations. 614.4125 Section 614.4125 Banks...

The Impact of the FOMC's Monetary Policy Actions on the growth of Credit Risk: the Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox

OpenAIRE

Kwamie Dunbar

2008-01-01

Credit risk is influenced by interest rates and market liquidity. This paper examines the direct and indirect impacts of unexpected monetary policy shifts on the growth of corporate credit risk, with the aim of quantifying the size and direction of the response. The results surprisingly indicate that monetary policy and liquidity impulses move counter to each other in their effects on credit risk ("The monetary policy-liquidity paradox"). The analysis indicates that while contractionary monet...

A perceptual survey of the S and P Purchased Power Credit Risk Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rittenhouse, L.J.

1992-01-01

In November 1991, Standard and Poor's commissioned UtiliVentures Inc. to conduct a survey among experts in the purchased power industry in order to determine their views on its recently released Purchased power Credit Risk Policy and their general views on purchased power. Respondents for the survey were drawn from attendees to the S and P - sponsored seminars on Emerging Issues for Independent Power held in October 1991 in New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco. The seminars examined the rationale behind the new Purchased Power Credit Policy and how the policy is to be implemented. While the survey is not a scientifically drawn sample, it includes respondents from all key industry groups and is, the author believes, representative of the attendees. The survey findings make generalizations about industry practices which are based on the perceptions of these individuals. It thus identifies perceptual realities: what people believe about the issues underlying the buy vs. build debate, not what others in the industry are saying they should believe. This distinction is vital, because it is the beliefs of these individuals that will shape the evolving purchased power industry. The survey was designed to accomplish three principal goals: (1) To develop systematically a base of information about what people think of the risks and opportunities in the purchased power industry and to determine the extent to which the S and P purchased Power Credit Policy incorporates these views. (2) To identify whether and to what extent respondents value the S and P Policy and how they think it might affect the industry. (3) To use the survey findings to adjust and fine tune the S and P Policy and to develop new ways and improve existing ways to educate and inform the industry about what the Policy intends to accomplish

AVOIDING RISK IN WORKING CAPITAL CREDIT DISTRIBUTION IN INDONESIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aloysius Deno Hervino

2011-09-01

Full Text Available This research analyzes risk avoidance behaviour of banking institutions in distributing working capital loan in Indonesia. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model, this paper uncovers three findings. First, in the short run, risk avoidance in working capital loan distribution depends on inter-call banking money market and Sertifikat Bank Indonesia. Second, following banking regulation after 1997 crisis, banks have become more careful in distributing credits, with SBI as a substitution instrument and inter-call banking money market as a complement instrument to spread the risk. Third, all explanatory variables take an average of 6 days or 1 week to influence bank’s risk avoidance behaviour.Keywords:     Risk avoidance, working capital distribution, banking institutions JEL classification numbers: C32, C52, D81, E51

12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... credit risk capital requirement, its market risk capital requirement, and its operations risk capital... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND...

17 CFR 240.15c3-1f - Optional market and credit risk requirements for OTC derivatives dealers (Appendix F to 17 CFR...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... charges for market and credit risk pursuant to this Appendix F in lieu of computing securities haircuts...)(2)(vi). Credit Risk (d) The capital charge for credit risk arising from an OTC derivatives dealer's... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Optional market and credit...

Risk Pricing in Emerging Economies: Credit Scoring and Private Banking in Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yiannis Anagnostopoulos

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Iran’s banking industry as a developing country is comparatively very new to risk management practices. An inevitable predictive implication of this rapid growth is the growing concerns with regard to credit risk management which is the motivation of conducting this research. The paper focuses on the credit scoring aspect of credit risk management using both logit and probit regression approaches. Real data on corporate customers are available for conducting this research which is also a contribution to this area for all other developing countries. Our questions focus on how future customers can be classified in terms of credibility, which models and methods are more effective in better capturing risks. Findings suggest that probit approaches are more effective in capturing the significance of variables and goodness-of-fitness tests. Seven variables of the Ohlson O-Score model are used: CL_CA, INTWO, OENEG, TA_TL, SIZE, WCAP_TA, and ROA; two were found to be statistically significant in logit (ROA, TL_TA and three were statistically significant in probit (ROA, TL_TA, SIZE. Also, CL_CA, ROA, and WCAP_TA were the three variables with an unexpected correlation to the probability of default. The prediction power with the cut-off point is set equal to 26% and 56.91% for defaulted customers in both logit and probit models. However, logit achieved 54.85% correct estimation of defaulted assets, 0.37% more than what probit estimated.

Introduction of Credit Derivatives and Valuation of Credit Default Swap

OpenAIRE

Han, Lu

2006-01-01

The credit derivative market was established at the beginning of the 1990s since the emergence of credit derivatives fits the rapid development of the whole derivatives market. However, compare to other derivative market, this market is still small and incomplete. As with other derivatives, credit derivatives can be used to either take more risk or hedge it, hence various credit derivatives instruments are accepted and widely used by market participants such as banks, insurance companies, etc...

State Policies to Support Competency-Based Education for Overage, Under-Credited Students. Ask the CCRS Center

Science.gov (United States)

Tomasello, Jenna; Brand, Betsy

2016-01-01

How can states ensure that students who are overage or under-credit (OA/UC) not only graduate high school but are prepared for college or the workforce? Competency-based education (CBE) is one emerging strategy for addressing the needs of at-risk youth. CBE can address the needs of at-risk students because it is personalized to individual…

Calculation of Credit Valuation Adjustment Based on Least Square Monte Carlo Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qian Liu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Counterparty credit risk has become one of the highest-profile risks facing participants in the financial markets. Despite this, relatively little is known about how counterparty credit risk is actually priced mathematically. We examine this issue using interest rate swaps. This largely traded financial product allows us to well identify the risk profiles of both institutions and their counterparties. Concretely, Hull-White model for rate and mean-reverting model for default intensity have proven to be in correspondence with the reality and to be well suited for financial institutions. Besides, we find that least square Monte Carlo method is quite efficient in the calculation of credit valuation adjustment (CVA, for short as it avoids the redundant step to generate inner scenarios. As a result, it accelerates the convergence speed of the CVA estimators. In the second part, we propose a new method to calculate bilateral CVA to avoid double counting in the existing bibliographies, where several copula functions are adopted to describe the dependence of two first to default times.

The impact of macroeconomic variables on the evolution of the credit risk rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luminița Gabriela Istrate

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The dynamics of the real economy is a major driver of the evolution of arrears at the level of the pool of loans granted to non-financial companies, completed by the financial pressure induced by the monetary conditions. Lending allows on the one hand providing resources for companies that need financing for investment projects, on the other hand, it supports the fund holders to place resources for obtaining profit. The role of the lending policy in the activity of commercial banks is very important, as it may influence both the cost of credits and the loan portfolio quality in the future. The purpose of this research is to find the macroeconomic variables that significantly influence credit risk and to develop a statistical model for predicting the doubtful and non-performing loans rate. Thus, it is envisaged the research of mechanisms by which the dynamics of the real economy and the money market conditions influence the evolution of the credit risk in different business sectors.

An Empirical Research on Bank Client Credit Assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quan Chen

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Individual microcredit loans involve large quantities and small amounts and necessitate rapid approval, therefore making simple and fast application approvals rather critical. Creditors must evaluate clients’ credit status and default risk within the shortest time when determining whether to approve or decline their applications, preventing overdue responses that negatively impact bank profits and management practices, and could trigger domestic financial crises. This study investigates client credit quality criteria, focusing on the expert opinions of bank managers. The decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory method is adopted to enable a comparison and analysis of the similarities and differences in how banks evaluate their clients’ character, ability, financial capability, and collateral. Based on causality and correlations among the criteria, we also identify the core problems and key improvement criteria in the evaluation system. Through survey results of professional managers from Taiwanese banks, this study uses the DEMATEL method to compare the differences in bank evaluation methods based on the four dimensions of clients’ character, ability, pockets, and collateral, as well as the corresponding 14 criteria. In order to improve the reliability and usefulness in bank client credit risk assessment, the assessment dimensions and indicators of bank client credit risk assessment are first discussed; second, the causal relationship and degree of mutual influence between different dimensions and criteria are researched and assessed; in the end, the paper discusses how to improve the function and the benefits of bank client credit risk assessment.

77 FR 67744 - Fair Credit Reporting (Regulation V); Correction

Science.gov (United States)

2012-11-14

... of furnishers and users of consumer reports. To mitigate the impact of these changes on users of the... BUREAU OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION 12 CFR Part 1022 [Docket No. CFPB-2012-0041] RIN 3170-AA06 Fair Credit Reporting (Regulation V); Correction AGENCY: Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection...

Effects of economic interactions on credit risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatchett, J P L; Kuehn, R

2006-01-01

We study a credit-risk model which captures effects of economic interactions on a firm's default probability. Economic interactions are represented as a functionally defined graph, and the existence of both cooperative and competitive business relations is taken into account. We provide an analytic solution of the model in a limit where the number of business relations of each company is large, but the overall fraction of the economy with which a given company interacts may be small. While the effects of economic interactions are relatively weak in typical (most probable) scenarios, they are pronounced in situations of economic stress, and thus lead to a substantial fattening of the tails of loss distributions in large loan portfolios. This manifests itself in a pronounced enhancement of the value at risk computed for interacting economies in comparison with their non-interacting counterparts

76 FR 54991 - Corporate Credit Unions

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-06

... believes the credit risk of carrying this asset is negligible and warrants such treatment, as CLF stock is... credit union excludes the consolidated assets of such programs from risk-weighted assets pursuant to... paragraphs (c)(3) and (f)(4) and adding new p(h) to read as follows: Sec. 704.6 Credit risk management...

THE EFFECT OF CREDIT LINES AND RISKS ON OPERATIONS OF ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

credit risks that had weakened the microfinance sub sector and its ability to achieve ... Institutional structures for the provision of microcredit vary and may be ... Most of these poor people also earn low income and they are .... They lack access to ... are women, poorly trained and playing dual roles of provider and caregiver.

Information Asymmetry and Credit Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorena TUPANGIU

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Information asymmetry defines relationships where an agent holds information while another does not hold it. Thus, to the extent that one of the parties to the financing agreement has information more or less accurate than another, the asymmetry of information appears to be a major constraint in the financing of a project. Banks, in their capacity of financial intermediary, operate the transfer of funds to agents in need of financing, to the borrowers, being necessary in this process to have more information in order to benefit of expertise in assessing borrowers. The research of information asymmetry and credit risk consists of interrogating the following aspects: information issues between the bank and borrowers; settlement of information issues; bank’s activism towards information asymmetry. In our approach we will look at the first aspect, namely the information issues between the bank and the borrowers.

Credit Risk Versus Performance in the Romanian Banking System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sbârcea Ioana Raluca

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The Romanian banking sector, predominantly governed by the capital of foreign banks, is, as well as other international banking sectors, under the sign of the necessary balance that should exist between risk and performance. This is a result of banks trying to take risks that they can control, given that they need to generate financial results that are satisfactory for all categories of bank creditors, namely shareholders, depositors and other lenders. In this paper, I wanted to analyze the risk situation assumed by the main banks in the system versus the performance gained in recent years. This article is part of a wider research, so I will refer only to the main risk assumed by a bank, namely the credit risk, I will highlight the evolution of the indicators of this risk, so that I can finally analyze their degree of correlation with indicators for measuring bank performance. The situation of other financial risks in banking activity will be addressed in other works.

Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Yan

2009-01-01

The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

77 FR 74831 - Fair Credit Reporting Act Disclosures

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-18

... the FACT Act added a new Section 612(a) to the FCRA that gives consumers the right to request free... BUREAU OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION [Docket No. CFPB-2012-0047] Fair Credit Reporting Act Disclosures AGENCY: Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection. ACTION: Notice regarding charges for certain...

The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pönkä, Harri

are useful predictors of US recessions over and above the control variables both in and out of sample. Especially the excess bond premium, capturing the cyclical changes in the relationship between default risk and credit spreads, is found to be a powerful predictor. Overall, models that combine credit......We study the role of credit in forecasting US recession periods with probit models. We employ both classical recession predictors and common factors based on a large panel of financial and macroeconomic variables as control variables. Our findings suggest that a number of credit variables...

75 FR 63107 - Alternatives to the Use of External Credit Ratings in the Regulations of the OTS

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-14

..., savings associations must consider the interest rate, credit, liquidity, price and other risks presented... subject only to moderate credit risk, and for whom expectations of default risk over the term of the... securities activities based on the levels and types of risks in its portfolio. As with the credit quality...

76 FR 73526 - Alternatives to the Use of External Credit Ratings in the Regulations of the OCC

Science.gov (United States)

2011-11-29

... Corn, Director for Market Risk, Credit and Market Risk Division, (202) 874-4660; Carl Kaminski, Senior... rulemaking on the agencies' use of credit ratings in risk-based capital frameworks,\\3\\ and we continue our... principal and interest and the risk of default and references credit ratings for that purpose. A broader...

75 FR 49423 - Alternatives to the Use of External Credit Ratings in the Regulations of the OCC

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-13

..., Credit and Market Risk Division, (202) 874-5670; or Carl Kaminski, Senior Attorney, Legislative and... agencies' risk-based capital frameworks. II. OCC Regulations Referencing Credit Ratings The non-capital... interest rate, credit, liquidity, price and other risks presented by investments, and the investments must...

Using multi-state markov models to identify credit card risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Evangelista Régis

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract The main interest of this work is to analyze the application of multi-state Markov models to evaluate credit card risk by investigating the characteristics of different state transitions in client-institution relationships over time, thereby generating score models for various purposes. We also used logistic regression models to compare the results with those obtained using multi-state Markov models. The models were applied to an actual database of a Brazilian financial institution. In this application, multi-state Markov models performed better than logistic regression models in predicting default risk, and logistic regression models performed better in predicting cancellation risk.

Credit Risk Analysis using Machine and Deep Learning models

OpenAIRE

Addo , Peter ,; Guegan , Dominique; Hassani , Bertrand

2018-01-01

URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/documents-de-travail-du-ces/; Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2018.03 - ISSN : 1955-611X; Due to the hyper technology associated to Big Data, data availability and computing power, most banks or lending financial institutions are renewing their business models. Credit risk predictions, monitoring, model reliability and effective loan processing are key to decision making and transparency. In...

Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shi-Wei Shen

2013-07-01

Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.

36 CFR 1011.14 - How will the Presidio Trust report debts to credit bureaus?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false How will the Presidio Trust... TRUST DEBT COLLECTION Procedures To Collect Presidio Trust Debts § 1011.14 How will the Presidio Trust report debts to credit bureaus? The Presidio Trust will report delinquent debts to credit bureaus in...

Connectedness between US industry level credit markets and determinants

Science.gov (United States)

Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain; Kayani, Ghulam Mujtaba; Raza, Syed Ali; Shah, Nida; Al-Yahyaee, Khamis H.

2018-02-01

We examine the connectedness between US industry-level credit markets, using both Credit Default Spread (CDS) changes and volatilities, over the period from December 17, 2007, to November 13, 2015. The total, net directional and pairwise spillovers are estimated based on the generalized VAR framework developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). The empirical analysis shows strong interactions for CDS spread change and volatility among all ten industries. Consumer Services and Basic Materials are the significant risk transmitters. Economic policy uncertainty and different market volatilities significantly determine credit market risk spillovers which also increase during market turbulence situations indicating a possible contagion effect. Implications of the findings are discussed.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN CREDIT INSTITUTION MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

IOV DANIELA RODICA

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Information concerning financial performance is one of the objectives of the annual financial statements of credit institutions. The main source containing this information is profit and loss statement. A correct and complete information can not be limited to this annual report. Understanding the concept of financial performance requires a holistic approach of the entity. An overview of information on financial performance will be achieved by coordinating information about the profit of the entity, rates of return, cash flows, financing cost and risk. For the economic and financial analysis we often use to separate financial equilibrium indicators of outcome indicators and management indicators. The study upon the financial performance may be based on the income statement, balance sheet and explanatory notes. It may use tools such as: income, interest rates, rates of return, rates of structure, liquidity and solvency rates, rotation rates, cash flows, debt coverage rates and more. Management of banking assets, liabilities and bank risk management must be assembled into a whole. In an uncertain environment, continuously changing, under conditions of the economic and financial crisis, the binomial profitability - risk is increasingly difficult to manage. Under these conditions, the boundary between courage and unconsciousness is also more fragile. On the other hand, the prudence, mandatory rules could be understood as some constraint measures on bank management, that may adversely affect the financial performance of the credit institution.

Credit Unions and Capital Adequacy: Managing Growth and Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Raymond Sant PhD, CFA, CMA

2013-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper we argue that a financial institution needs to continuously monitor and assess its risk exposure in the context of capital requirements and available growth opportunities. Judicious management of the interaction between these three elements is crucial to the long term survival and growth of such an institution. We highlight different approaches to risk analysis, beyond stress testing, such as, Value at Risk and Monte Carlo simulation. We recommend that the board of directors establish a sub-committee of its directors to oversee risk management and capital control functions, and to monitor a credit union’s asset liability management activities on an ongoing basis. Efforts should also be made to increase the level of internal expertise regarding risk management and analysis with the full participation of the board, a function that should not be outsourced. In an increasingly regulated financial industry environment it is imperative that a financial institution seeks out growth opportunities while maintaining the balance between capital and risk exposure for long-term business continuity.

EduCTX: A blockchain-based higher education credit platform

OpenAIRE

Turkanović, Muhamed; Hölbl, Marko; Košič, Kristjan; Heričko, Marjan; Kamišalić, Aida

2017-01-01

Blockchain technology enables the creation of a decentralized environment where transactions and data are not under the control of any third party organization. Any transaction ever completed is recorded in a public ledger in a verifiable and permanent way. Based on blockchain technology, we propose a global higher education credit platform, named EduCTX. This platform is based on the concept of the European Credit Transfer and Accumulation System (ECTS). It constitutes a globally trusted, de...

Grading the probabilities of credit default risk for Malaysian listed companies by using the KMV-Merton model

Science.gov (United States)

Anuwar, Muhammad Hafidz; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

2017-08-01

This paper provides an overview for the assessment of credit risk specific to the banks. In finance, risk is a term to reflect the potential of financial loss. The risk of default on loan may increase when a company does not make a payment on that loan when the time comes. Hence, this framework analyses the KMV-Merton model to estimate the probabilities of default for Malaysian listed companies. In this way, banks can verify the ability of companies to meet their loan commitments in order to overcome bad investments and financial losses. This model has been applied to all Malaysian listed companies in Bursa Malaysia for estimating the credit default probabilities of companies and compare with the rating given by the rating agency, which is RAM Holdings Berhad to conform to reality. Then, the significance of this study is a credit risk grade is proposed by using the KMV-Merton model for the Malaysian listed companies.

Trade Credit Insurance and Asymmetric Information Problem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sokolovska Olena

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The presence of different risk factors in international trade gives evidence of the necessity of support in gaps that may affect exporters’ activity. To maximize the trade volumes and in the same time to minimize the exporters’ risks the stakeholders use trade credit insurance. The paper provides analysis of conceptual background of the trade credit insurance in the world. We analyzed briefly the problems, arising in insurance markets due to asymmetric information, such as adverse selection and moral hazard. Also we discuss the main stages of development of trade credit insurance in countries worldwide. Using comparative and graphical analysis we provide a brief evaluation of the dynamics of claims and recoveries for different forms of trade credit insurance. We found that the claims related to the commercial risk for medium and long trade credits in recent years exceed the recoveries, while with the political risk the reverse trend holds. And we originally consider these findings in terms of information asymmetry in the trade credit insurance differentiated by type of risk.

Risk adjustment model of credit life insurance using a genetic algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Saputra, A.; Sukono; Rusyaman, E.

2018-03-01

In managing the risk of credit life insurance, insurance company should acknowledge the character of the risks to predict future losses. Risk characteristics can be learned in a claim distribution model. There are two standard approaches in designing the distribution model of claims over the insurance period i.e, collective risk model and individual risk model. In the collective risk model, the claim arises when risk occurs is called individual claim, accumulation of individual claim during a period of insurance is called an aggregate claim. The aggregate claim model may be formed by large model and a number of individual claims. How the measurement of insurance risk with the premium model approach and whether this approach is appropriate for estimating the potential losses occur in the future. In order to solve the problem Genetic Algorithm with Roulette Wheel Selection is used.

Multiple challenges of risk management in EU credit institutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantinescu, A.

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is intended to be a significant insight into risk management issues by describing the main types of such risks and by providing management and evaluation procedures of significant risks into some active banking companies in Romania. In times of crisis, risk management in the banking system has a greater importance than in the normal economic times. The 2011 was a year in which Romania has been hit by the repercussions of the international economic crisis. Using strategies against risks, implementing procedures to monitor and control risks, risk assessment and quantification can substantially reduce the financial losses of a company or those of a financial institution. Risk management is an integral part of all decision making and business processes from credit institutions, its purpose being to protect their sustainable development. The innovations on the financial market, the internationalization of the specific operations, and the pressure of the competition are just a few arguments that impose a permanent supervision of the general and specific risks. This is the main reason why is compulsory to find new methods of managing risks, to keep in consideration the identification, evaluation of the management and the control of the banking system and of each bank.

77 FR 52977 - Regulatory Capital Rules: Advanced Approaches Risk-Based Capital Rule; Market Risk Capital Rule

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-30

...-weighted assets for residential mortgages, securitization exposures, and counterparty credit risk. The.... Risk-Weighted Assets--Proposed Modifications to the Advanced Approaches Rules A. Counterparty Credit... Margin Period of Risk 3. Changes to the Internal Models Methodology (IMM) 4. Credit Valuation Adjustments...

Credit scoring using ensemble of various classifiers on reduced feature set

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dahiya Shashi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Credit scoring methods are widely used for evaluating loan applications in financial and banking institutions. Credit score identifies if applicant customers belong to good risk applicant group or a bad risk applicant group. These decisions are based on the demographic data of the customers, overall business by the customer with bank, and loan payment history of the loan applicants. The advantages of using credit scoring models include reducing the cost of credit analysis, enabling faster credit decisions and diminishing possible risk. Many statistical and machine learning techniques such as Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines, Neural Networks and Decision tree algorithms have been used independently and as hybrid credit scoring models. This paper proposes an ensemble based technique combining seven individual models to increase the classification accuracy. Feature selection has also been used for selecting important attributes for classification. Cross classification was conducted using three data partitions. German credit dataset having 1000 instances and 21 attributes is used in the present study. The results of the experiments revealed that the ensemble model yielded a very good accuracy when compared to individual models. In all three different partitions, the ensemble model was able to classify more than 80% of the loan customers as good creditors correctly. Also, for 70:30 partition there was a good impact of feature selection on the accuracy of classifiers. The results were improved for almost all individual models including the ensemble model.

Expanding Choice: Tax Credits and Educational Access in Montana

Science.gov (United States)

Carpenter, Dick M., II; Ross, John K.

2009-01-01

The evidence advanced in this report demonstrates that using tax credits to fund scholarships for students is both well-established and sound practice. Three existing credits allow taxpayer funds to flow to faith-based organizations, and one of those, the Qualified Endowment Credit, rewards contributions to more than a thousand charitable…

Credit Spreads Across the Business Cycle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

This paper studies how corporate bond spreads vary with the business cycle. I show that both level and slope of empirical credit spread curves are correlated with the state of the economy, and I link this to variation in idiosyncratic jump risk. I develop a structural credit risk model...... that accounts for both business cycle and jump risk, and show by estimation that the model captures the counter-cyclical level and pro-cyclical slope of empirical credit spread curves. In addition, I provide a new procedure for estimation of idiosyncratic jump risk, which is consistent with observed shocks...

Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

Science.gov (United States)

Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

2018-01-01

Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Issues concerning Development of Consumer Credit Business in China’s Agricultural Bank

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2012-01-01

This article introduces the status quo of consumer credit business in China’s agricultural bank,indicating that the scale of China’s consumer credit business is expanded year by year;the growth of consumer credit business slows down;housing loans grow rapidly.We analyze issues concerning development of consumer credit business in agricultural bank as follows:single variety of consumer credit business makes the operating scope narrow;the formality of consumer credit business is trivial,abating consumers’ will to borrow;consumers’ consumer attitudes are stale,yet to be further changed;the loan interest of consumer credit is beyond the majority of consumers’ actual ability to pay;the existing regulations and systems are not sound;the risk prevention mechanism is not perfect.Based on this,we put forward the following countermeasures and proposals for further improving consumer credit business in China’s agricultural bank:first,formulate reasonable marketing strategy of consumer credit business;second,establish and improve the internal management mechanism;third,establish and improve risk assessment system;fourth,improve consumer credit legal system.

Internal Model of Commercial Bank as an Instrument for Measuring Credit Risk of the Borrower in Relation to Financial Performance (Credit Scoring and Bankruptcy Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belás Jaroslav

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Commercial banks generally use different methods and procedures for managing credit risk. The internal rating method in which the client has an important position in the process of granting credit provides a comprehensive assessment of client creditworthiness. The aim of this article is to analyze selected theoretical, methodological and practical aspects of internal rating models of commercial banks within the context of models that measures financial performance and to make a comparison of results of real - rating models which are used in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The results of the chosen credit scoring and bankruptcy methods on selected companies from segments of small and medium-sized companies are presented.

Binary Tree Pricing to Convertible Bonds with Credit Risk under Stochastic Interest Rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianbo Huang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The convertible bonds usually have multiple additional provisions that make their pricing problem more difficult than straight bonds and options. This paper uses the binary tree method to model the finance market. As the underlying stock prices and the interest rates are important to the convertible bonds, we describe their dynamic processes by different binary tree. Moreover, we consider the influence of the credit risks on the convertible bonds that is described by the default rate and the recovery rate; then the two-factor binary tree model involving the credit risk is established. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, we make numerical simulation and get the pricing results when the stock prices are CRR model and the interest rates follow the constant volatility and the time-varying volatility, respectively. This model can be extended to other financial derivative instruments.

Methodical bases of accounting and analytical support for the management of credit portfolio of the bank

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.M. Gerasimovich

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Solved how to optimize the system of accounting and analytical indicators to assess the level of risk and the effectiveness of the Bank's credit activity, on the basis of scale, scope and structure of the credit portfolio; the turnover of credit investments; the problematical character of the loan portfolio and the level of risk and security of the loan portfolio. Exploring the possibility of accounting on the basis of which analysis calculated metrics and evaluation of significance proposed, in contrast to the current Grad C system with more than 50 indicators, the most informative in the amount of 20–25, which allow daily operational way to assess the level of credit portfolio management of the Bank. This contributes to the daily detailed sub-accounts trial balance balance sheet, which consists of all banks and provide the National Bank of Ukraine. So, the most reasonable is the performance in terms of scale and structure – percentage changes; turnover rates – the rate in days; problem – percentage problems; credit risk – factor security loans; management effectiveness factors: the economy, profitability and efficiency.

49 CFR 260.13 - Credit reform.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... appropriations, direct payment of a Credit Risk Premium by the Applicant or a non-Federal infrastructure partner... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit reform. 260.13 Section 260.13... REHABILITATION AND IMPROVEMENT FINANCING PROGRAM Overview § 260.13 Credit reform. The Federal Credit Reform Act...

Burnup credit applications in a high-capacity truck cask

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boshoven, J.K.

1992-09-01

General Atomics (GA) has designed two legal weight truck (LWT) casks, the GA-4 and GA-9, to carry four pressurized-water-reactor (PWR) and nine boiling-water-reactor (BWR) fuel assemblies, respectively. GA plans to submit applications for certification to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the two casks in mid-1993. GA will include burnup credit analysis in the Safety Analysis Report for Packaging (SARP) for the GA-4 Cask. By including burnup credit in the criticality safety analysis for PWR fuels with initial enrichments above 3% U-235, public and occupation risks are reduced and cost savings are realized. The GA approach to burnup credit analysis incorporates the information produced in the US Department of Energy Burnup Credit Program. This paper describes the application of burnup credit to the criticality control design of the GA-4 Cask

The Effect of Graduation Coaches and Credit Recovery Programs on the Dropout Rate of At-Risk Grade 9 Students

Science.gov (United States)

Bowling, Jan

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to identify the characteristics of effective graduation coaches (GCs) and credit recovery programs and explain the influence of a GC and a credit recovery program on Grade 9 students at risk of dropping out. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a high school GC and enrollment in a credit recovery…

An Anonymous Credit Card System

Science.gov (United States)

Androulaki, Elli; Bellovin, Steven

Credit cards have many important benefits; however, these same benefits often carry with them many privacy concerns. In particular, the need for users to be able to monitor their own transactions, as well as bank’s need to justify its payment requests from cardholders, entitle the latter to maintain a detailed log of all transactions its credit card customers were involved in. A bank can thus build a profile of each cardholder even without the latter’s consent. In this paper, we present a practical and accountable anonymous credit system based on ecash, with a privacy preserving mechanism for error correction and expense-reporting.

Trial of a "credit card" asthma self-management plan in a high-risk group of patients with asthma.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Souza, W; Burgess, C; Ayson, M; Crane, J; Pearce, N; Beasley, R

1996-05-01

The "credit card" asthma self-management plan provides the adult asthmatic patient with simple guidelines for the self-management of asthma, which are based on the self-assessment of peak expiratory flow rate recordings and symptoms. The study was a trial of the clinical efficacy of the credit card plan in a high-risk group of asthmatic patients. In this "before-and-after" trial, patients discharged from the emergency department of Wellington Hospital, after treatment for severe asthma were invited to attend a series of hospital outpatient clinics at which the credit card plan was introduced. Questionnaires were used to compare markers of asthma morbidity, requirement for emergency medical care, and medication use during the 6-month period before and after intervention with the credit card plan. Of the 30 patients with asthma who attended the first outpatient clinic, 26 (17 women and 9 men) completed the program. In these 26 participants, there was a reduction in both morbidity and requirement for acute medical services: specifically, the proportion waking with asthma more than once a week decreased from 65% to 23% (p = 0.005) and the proportion visiting the emergency department for treatment of severe asthma decreased from 58% to 15% (p = 0.004). The patients attending the clinics commented favorably on the plan, in particular on its usefulness as an educational tool for monitoring and treating their asthma. Although the interpretation of this study is limited by the lack of a randomized control group, the findings are consistent with other evidence that the credit card asthma self-management plan can be an effective and acceptable system for improving asthma care in a high-risk group of adult patients with asthma.

Emission credits : what are they worth?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilman, E.A.

2003-01-01

The current cost of making a carbon transaction was discussed with particular reference to a time-line when emissions trading will become more cost-effective and streamlined for quicker results. This paper described how companies are dealing with the risk of emissions trading in terms of pricing and the expected financial impacts of owning a new commodity. The incorporation of emissions credits and trading activities into a company's balance sheet was also described in terms of how banks will consider a company's credit when calculating their loan potential. It was noted that some credits will be valued higher than others based on their historical background. The financial impact that credits have on company assets was addressed in terms of measuring reputation management. The importance of developing a financial plan for effective management was emphasized in terms of evaluating emissions reduction projects and future options. 17 refs., 2 figs

Who Gets the Credit? Who Pays the Consequences? The Illinois Tuition Tax Credit. Special Report.

Science.gov (United States)

Pathak, Arohi; Keenan, Nancy

In 1999, Illinois enacted a tuition tax credit program. Tax credit supporters suggest tax credits help low-income students. However, opponents argue that they disproportionately benefit higher-income families whose children are already attending private schools and may decrease already limited resources available to public schools. New data from…

A Theoretical Argument Why the t-Copula Explains Credit Risk Contagion Better than the Gaussian Copula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Didier Cossin

2010-01-01

Full Text Available One of the key questions in credit dependence modelling is the specfication of the copula function linking the marginals of default variables. Copulae functions are important because they allow to decouple statistical inference into two parts: inference of the marginals and inference of the dependence. This is particularly important in the area of credit risk where information on dependence is scant. Whereas the techniques to estimate the parameters of the copula function seem to be fairly well established, the choice of the copula function is still an open problem. We find out by simulation that the t-copula naturally arises from a structural model of credit risk, proposed by Cossin and Schellhorn (2007. If revenues are linked by a Gaussian copula, we demonstrate that the t-copula provides a better fit to simulations than does a Gaussian copula. This is done under various specfications of the marginals and various configurations of the network. Beyond its quantitative importance, this result is qualitatively intriguing. Student's t-copulae induce fatter (joint tails than Gaussian copulae ceteris paribus. On the other hand observed credit spreads have generally fatter joint tails than the ones implied by the Gaussian distribution. We thus provide a new statistical explanation why (i credit spreads have fat joint tails, and (ii financial crises are amplified by network effects.

Credit Participation and Credit Source Selection of Vietnam Small and Medium Enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nguyen Anh Hoang

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This study is an attempt to investigate the motivation behind the decision to participate in the credit market of SMEs from perspectives of behavioral finance and social capital theories. In addi- tion, the study also examines the effect of behavioral finance and social capital factors on the credit source selection among SMEs. This study’s design strategy involves conducting questionnaire sur- veys to SMEs owners and statistical techniques to analyze the determinants of credit participation and credit source selection of borrowers. The findings showed that personal traits of SMEs owners/ managers in terms of behavioral finance factors such as debt and risk attitudes, present biased and overconfidence and firms networking also have impacts on the firms’ credit participation and credit source selection. The research is one of the few studies that consider the influence of behavioral finance factors on firms financing decision. Furthermore, our result also contributes to explain the common use of informal credit market in developing countries.

Value of big data to finance: observations on an internet credit Service Company in China

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Shaofeng; Xiong, Wei; Ni, Wancheng; Li, Xin

2015-01-01

Background: his paper presents a case study on 100Credit, an Internet credit service provider in China. 100Credit began as an IT company specializing in e-commerce recommendation before getting into the credit rating business. The company makes use of Big Data on multiple aspects of individuals' online activities to infer their potential credit risk. Methods: Based on 100Credit's business practices, this paper summarizes four aspects related to the value of Big Data in Internet credit service...

Credit Card Security

OpenAIRE

G.C., Anup

2013-01-01

Author: Anup G.C. Year: 2013 Subject of thesis: Credit Card Security Number of pages: 36+2 Credit Card is a widely used electronic chip for easy transactions. The main purpose of the report was to show the security measures of transaction by credit cards. The purpose was to give information about credit cards and how they were introduced. The thesis reportcontained the types of card theft with examples and sited the various protocols used for online ...

Credit Supply and Corporate Innovation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amore, Mario Daniele; Schneider, Cédric; Zaldokas, Alminas

We present evidence that banking development plays a key role in technological progress. We focus on firms’ innovative performance, measured by patent-based metrics, and employ exogenous variations in banking development arising from the staggered deregulation of banking activities across U.S. st...... by a greater ability of deregulated banks to geographically diversify credit risk....

Sustaining Satisfaction for Credit Risk Governance: Empirical Evidence from Indian Commercial Banks

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, Anju

2015-01-01

This paper explores the issues underlying the credit risk governance mechanism of banking institutions in emerging economies. This is an important area of study given the essential role that banks play in the financial markets of emerging economies and the widespread banking reforms that these economies have implemented. The aim of this study is…

For which option is credit risk more representative on China banks' total factor productivity Efficiency change or technological progress?

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Fadzlan Sufian

2012-01-01

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of credit risk on China banks' total factor productivity.Design/methodology/approach-The paper employs the Malmquist Productivity Index (MP1) which allows for the examination of five different indices:total factor productivity change (TFPCH);technological change (TECHCH);efficiency change (EFFCH);pure technical efficiency change (PEFFCH);and scale efficiency change (SECH) indices.Findings-The empirical findings indicate that the State Owned Commercial Banks (SOCB),Joint Stock Commercial Banks (JSCB),and City Commercial Banks (CCB) have exhibited lower TFPCH levels with the inclusion of risk factor.It was found that the JSCB and CCB have exhibited lower TFPCH due to TECHCH,while the SOCB have exhibited lower TFPCH due to EFFCH.The empirical findings suggest that the inclusion of credit risk factor has resulted in a higher JSCB EFFCH levels.On the other hand,the SOCB and CCB have exhibited a lower EFFCH levels due to SECH and PEFFCH,respectively.Research limitations/implications-The results clearly highlight the importance of credit risk and lending quality in determining the total factor productivity change of banks operating in the China banking sector.The author demonstrates that the inclusion of credit risk factor has resulted in a lower TFPCH level of all banks operating in the China banking sector.Thus,excluding the credit risk factor from the analysis on the China banking sector may potentially bias the result upwards.Practical impIications-In an environment of heavy government influence over the lending process,a large proportion of loans extended by Chinese banks over the years have gone bad.Policymakers should prevent the flow of new non-performing loans by separating bad clients from banks that are being restructured and recapitalized in the reform of the banking sector.Originality/value-By employing the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI),the present paper contributes to

Financial performance as a decision criterion of credit scoring models selection [doi: 10.21529/RECADM.2017004

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodrigo Alves Silva

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to show the importance of the use of financial metrics in decision-making of credit scoring models selection. In order to achieve such, we considered an automatic approval system approach and we carried out a performance analysis of the financial metrics on the theoretical portfolios generated by seven credit scoring models based on main statistical learning techniques. The models were estimated on German Credit dataset and the results were analyzed based on four metrics: total accuracy, error cost, risk adjusted return on capital and Sharpe index. The results show that total accuracy, widely used as a criterion for selecting credit scoring models, is unable to select the most profitable model for the company, indicating the need to incorporate financial metrics into the credit scoring model selection process. Keywords Credit risk; Model’s selection; Statistical learning.

Quantile Forecasting for Credit Risk Management Using Possibly Mis-specified Hidden Markov Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Banachewicz, K.P.; Lucas, A.

2008-01-01

Recent models for credit risk management make use of hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are used to forecast quantiles of corporate default rates. Little research has been done on the quality of such forecasts if the underlying HMM is potentially misspecified. In this paper, we focus on

Probabilistic assessment of dry transport with burnup credit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lake, W.H.

2003-01-01

The general concept of probabilistic analysis and its application to the use of burnup credit in spent fuel transport is explored. Discussion of the probabilistic analysis method is presented. The concepts of risk and its perception are introduced, and models are suggested for performing probability and risk estimates. The general probabilistic models are used for evaluating the application of burnup credit for dry spent nuclear fuel transport. Two basic cases are considered. The first addresses the question of the relative likelihood of exceeding an established criticality safety limit with and without burnup credit. The second examines the effect of using burnup credit on the overall risk for dry spent fuel transport. Using reasoned arguments and related failure probability and consequence data analysis is performed to estimate the risks of using burnup credit for dry transport of spent nuclear fuel. (author)

The effect of the subprime crisis on the credit risk in global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sangwook; Kim, Min Jae; Lee, Sun Young; Kim, Soo Yong; Ban, Joon Hwa

2013-05-01

Credit default swap (CDS) has become one of the most actively traded credit derivatives, and its importance in finance markets has increased after the subprime crisis. In this study, we analyzed the correlation structure of credit risks embedded in CDS and the influence of the subprime crisis on this topological space. We found that the correlation was stronger in the cluster constructed according to the location of the CDS reference companies than in the one constructed according to their industries. The correlation both within a given cluster and between different clusters became significantly stronger after the subprime crisis. The causality test shows that the lead lag effect between the portfolios (into which reference companies are grouped by the continent where each of them is located) is reversed in direction because the portion of non-investable and investable reference companies in each portfolio has changed since then. The effect of a single impulse has increased and the response time relaxation has become prolonged after the crisis as well.

17 CFR 248.16 - Protection of Fair Credit Reporting Act.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... Reporting Act. 248.16 Section 248.16 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (CONTINUED) REGULATIONS S-P AND S-AM Regulation S-P: Privacy of Consumer Financial Information and Safeguarding Personal Information Relation to Other Laws; Effective Date § 248.16 Protection of Fair Credit...

17 CFR 240.15c3-1e - Deductions for market and credit risk for certain brokers or dealers (Appendix E to 17 CFR 240...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... credit risk for certain brokers or dealers (Appendix E to 17 CFR 240.15c3-1). 240.15c3-1e Section 240....15c3-1(c)(2)(vi) and (c)(2)(vii) and to compute deductions for credit risk pursuant to this Appendix E... the broker or dealer will use to calculate deductions for market and credit risk on those categories...

Trust and Credit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harste, Gorm

The present paper is an answer to the question, how did trust and credit emerge. The systems of trust and credit reduce the environmental and contextual complexities in which trust and credit are embedded. The paper analyses the forms of this reduction in a number of stages in the evolution...... of history from the present risk of modern systems back to early modernity, the Reformation and the high medieval Revolutions in law, organization and theology. It is not a history of economics, but a history of the conditions of some communication codes used in economic systems....

Consumer Handbook to Credit Protection Laws.

Science.gov (United States)

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC.

The five sections of this consumer handbook are The Cost of Credit, Applying for Credit, Credit Histories and Records, Correcting Credit Mistakes, and Complaining about Credit. Each section discusses relevant legislation: Truth in Lending, the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, and the Fair Credit Reporting Act. Topics discussed in section I include…

Modeling Cycle Dependence in Credit Insurance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anisa Caja

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Business and credit cycles have an impact on credit insurance, as they do on other businesses. Nevertheless, in credit insurance, the impact of the systemic risk is even more important and can lead to major losses during a crisis. Because of this, the insurer surveils and manages policies almost continuously. The management actions it takes limit the consequences of a downturning cycle. However, the traditional modeling of economic capital does not take into account this important feature of credit insurance. This paper proposes a model aiming to estimate future losses of a credit insurance portfolio, while taking into account the insurer’s management actions. The model considers the capacity of the credit insurer to take on less risk in the case of a cycle downturn, but also the inverse, in the case of a cycle upturn; so, losses are predicted with a more dynamic perspective. According to our results, the economic capital is over-estimated when not considering the management actions of the insurer.

Rare Disasters and Credit Market Puzzles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Du, Du; Elkamhi, Redouane

to the real economy and not to bond prices can simultaneously explain several key empirical regularities in credit markets. Our model captures the empirical level and volatility of credit spreads, generates a flexible credit risk term structure, and provides a good fit to a century of observed spreads...

Methodology of Credit Analysis Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Slađana Neogradi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The subject of research presented in this paper refers to the definition of methodology for the development of credit analysis in companies and its application in lending operations in the Republic of Serbia. With the developing credit market, there is a growing need for a well-developed risk and loss prevention system. In the introduction the process of bank analysis of the loan applicant is presented in order to minimize and manage the credit risk. By examining the subject matter, the process of processing the credit application is described, the procedure of analyzing the financial statements in order to get an insight into the borrower's creditworthiness. In the second part of the paper, the theoretical and methodological framework is presented applied in the concrete company. In the third part, models are presented which banks should use to protect against exposure to risks, i.e. their goal is to reduce losses on loan operations in our country, as well as to adjust to market conditions in an optimal way.

12 CFR 615.5210 - Risk-adjusted assets.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... appropriate credit conversion factor in § 615.5212, is assigned to one of the risk categories specified in... risk-based capital requirement for the credit-enhanced assets, the risk-based capital required under..., determine the appropriate risk weight for any asset or credit equivalent amount that does not fit wholly...

Credit concession through credit scoring: Analysis and application proposal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oriol Amat

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The study herein develops and tests a credit scoring model which can help financial institutions in assessing credit requests.  Design/methodology/approach: The empirical study has the objective of answering two questions: (1 Which ratios better discriminate the companies based on their being solvent or insolvent? and (2 What is the relative importance of these ratios? To do this, several statistical techniques with a multifactorial focus have been used (Multivariate Analysis of Variance, Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit Models. Several samples of companies have been used in order to obtain and to test the model.  Findings: Through the application of several statistical techniques, the credit scoring model has been proved to be effective in discriminating between good and bad creditors.  Research limitations:  This study focuses on manufacturing, commercial and services companies of all sizes in Spain; Therefore, the conclusions may differ for other geographical locations. Practical implications:  Because credit is one of the main drivers of growth, a solid credit scoring model can help financial institutions assessing to whom to grant credit and to whom not to grant credit. Social implications: Because of the growing importance of credit for our society and the fear of granting it due to the latest financial turmoil, a solid credit scoring model can strengthen the trust toward the financial institutions assessment’s.  Originality/value: There is already a stream of literature related to credit scoring. However, this paper focuses on Spanish firms and proves the results of our model based on real data. The application of the model to detect the probability of default in loans is original.

An empirical research on evaluating banks' credit assessment of corporate customers.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Sang-Bing; Li, Guodong; Wu, Chia-Huei; Zheng, Yuxiang; Wang, Jiangtao

2016-01-01

Under the rapid change of the global financial environment, the risk control of the credit granting is viewed as the foremost task to each bank. With the impact one by one from financial crisis and European debt crisis, the steady bank business is also facing the severe challenge. Banks approve the credits for their customers and then make money from the interest. Credit granting is not only the primary job but also the main source of income. The quality of credit granting concerns not just the reclaims of creditor's rights; it also affects the successful running of banks. To enhance the reliability and usefulness of bank credit risk assessment, we first will delve in the facets and indexes in the bank credit risk assessment. Then, we will examine the different dimensions of cause-effect relationships and correlations in the assessment process. Finally, the study focuses on how to raise the functions and benefits of the bank credit risk assessment. In those five credit risk evaluation dimensions, A "optional capability" and D "competitiveness" are of high relation and high prominence among those dimensions, influencing other items obviously. By actively focusing on these two dimensions and improving their credit risk assessment ability will solve the foremost problems and also solve other facets of credit risk assessment problems at the same time.

76 FR 10492 - Credit Reforms in Organized Wholesale Electric Markets

Science.gov (United States)

2011-02-25

..., Order No. 741, to amend its regulations to improve the management of risk and use of credit in the... discriminatory or preferential. The management of risk and credit requires a balance between protecting the... are less of a credit risk because their bond resolutions give explicit payment [[Page 10494

A Quantitative Approach to Credit Risk Management in the Underwriting Process for the Retail Portfolio

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreea Costea

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The core of this paper encloses a mathematical approach of credit risk management, based on a scorecard model used in the bank’s underwriting process. The main purpose of this paper is to present how to develop, validate and apply a rating model in practice. Using 21568 loan applications provided by one of the largest banks from Romania, a scorecard is built for the underwriting purposes. The customer data used in the modeling is based on socio-demographic characteristics. The model is developed according to a set of statistical methods for parameter estimation. A real-life example of how to use such a model in the strategic decisions of a bank is presented. The cut-off score for the acceptance of the applications is calibrated to a potential risk appetite of the main four banks in Romania. From an evaluative perspective, this paper is compatible with an exploratory approach to quantitative research methodology.

11 CFR 100.55 - Extension of credit.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... substantially similar to extensions of credit to nonpolitical debtors that are of similar risk and size of... 11 Federal Elections 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Extension of credit. 100.55 Section 100.55... Contribution (2 U.S.C. 431(8)) § 100.55 Extension of credit. The extension of credit by any person is a...

Portfolio Sensitivity Model for Analyzing Credit Risk Caused by Structural and Macroeconomic Changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Goran Klepac

2008-12-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a new model for portfolio sensitivity analysis. The model is suitable for decision support in financial institutions, specifically for portfolio planning and portfolio management. The basic advantage of the model is the ability to create simulations for credit risk predictions in cases when we virtually change portfolio structure and/or macroeconomic factors. The model takes a holistic approach to portfolio management consolidating all organizational segments in the process such as marketing, retail and risk.

Evolution of optically nondestructive and data-non-intrusive credit card verifiers

Science.gov (United States)

Sumriddetchkajorn, Sarun; Intaravanne, Yuttana

2010-04-01

Since the deployment of the credit card, the number of credit card fraud cases has grown rapidly with a huge amount of loss in millions of US dollars. Instead of asking more information from the credit card's holder or taking risk through payment approval, a nondestructive and data-non-intrusive credit card verifier is highly desirable before transaction begins. In this paper, we review optical techniques that have been proposed and invented in order to make the genuine credit card more distinguishable than the counterfeit credit card. Several optical approaches for the implementation of credit card verifiers are also included. In particular, we highlight our invention on a hyperspectral-imaging based portable credit card verifier structure that offers a very low false error rate of 0.79%. Other key features include low cost, simplicity in design and implementation, no moving part, no need of an additional decoding key, and adaptive learning.

A user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble for broadband network new media service supervision

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Fang; Cao, San-xing; Lu, Rui

2012-04-01

This paper proposes a user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble aiming to solve the problem that users illegally spread pirated and pornographic media contents within the user self-service oriented broadband network new media platforms. Its idea is to do the new media user credit assessment by establishing indices system based on user credit behaviors, and the illegal users could be found according to the credit assessment results, thus to curb the bad videos and audios transmitted on the network. The user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble proposed by this paper which integrates the advantages that swarm intelligence clustering is suitable for user credit behavior analysis and K-means clustering could eliminate the scattered users existed in the result of swarm intelligence clustering, thus to realize all the users' credit classification automatically. The model's effective verification experiments are accomplished which are based on standard credit application dataset in UCI machine learning repository, and the statistical results of a comparative experiment with a single model of swarm intelligence clustering indicates this clustering ensemble model has a stronger creditworthiness distinguishing ability, especially in the aspect of predicting to find user clusters with the best credit and worst credit, which will facilitate the operators to take incentive measures or punitive measures accurately. Besides, compared with the experimental results of Logistic regression based model under the same conditions, this clustering ensemble model is robustness and has better prediction accuracy.

12 CFR 702.306 - Revised business plans for new credit unions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... exposure to risk (including credit risk, interest-rate risk, and other types of risk). (d) Consideration of... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Revised business plans for new credit unions. 702.306 Section 702.306 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION REGULATIONS AFFECTING...

76 FR 16235 - Corporate Credit Unions, Technical Corrections

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-23

... inadvertently included particular investments that did not--when subject to the other credit risk and asset... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 707 RIN 3133-AD58 Corporate Credit Unions, Technical Corrections AGENCY: National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: In...

76 FR 55946 - Comment Request for Information Collection for the Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC) Program...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-09

... Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC) Program: Extension With Non-Substantive Revisions AGENCY: Employment and..., ``Certification Workload and Characteristics of Certified Individuals, Work Opportunity Tax Credit'' and provided... submit this report using the Internet-based Tax Credit Reporting System of the Enterprise Business...

Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy : What do Twenty-three Million Bank Loans Say about the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jiminez, G.; Ongena, S.; Saurina, J.

2007-01-01

We investigate the impact of the stance and path of monetary policy on the level of credit risk of individual bank loans and on lending standards. We employ the Credit Register of the Bank of Spain that contains detailed monthly information on virtually all loans granted by all credit institutions

A survey of previous and current industry-wide efforts regarding burnup credit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, R.H.

1989-01-01

Sandia has examined the matter of burnup credit from the perspective of physics, logistics, risk, and economics. A limited survey of the nuclear industry has been conducted to get a feeling for the actual application of burnup credit. Based on this survey, it can be concluded that the suppliers of spent fuel storage and transport casks are in general agreement that burnup credit offers the potential for improvements in cask efficiency without increasing the risk of accidental criticality. The actual improvement is design-specific but limited applications have demonstrated that capacity increases in the neighborhood of 20 percent are not unrealistic. A number of these vendors acknowledge that burnup credit has not been reduced to practice in cask applications and suggest that operational considerations may be more important to regulatory acceptance than to the physics. Nevertheless, the importance of burnup credit to the nuclear industry as a cask design and analysis tool has been confirmed by this survey

Derivative pricing with liquidity risk: Theory and evidence from the credit default swap market

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bongaerts, D.; de Jong, F.; Driessen, J.

2008-01-01

We derive a theoretical asset-pricing model for derivative contracts that allows for expected liquidity and liquidity risk, and estimate this model for the market of credit default swaps (CDS). Our model extends the LCAPM of Acharya and Pedersen (2005) to a setting with derivative instruments and

Credit scoring analysis using kernel discriminant

Science.gov (United States)

Widiharih, T.; Mukid, M. A.; Mustafid

2018-05-01

Credit scoring model is an important tool for reducing the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to applicants. This paper investigate the performance of kernel discriminant model in assessing customer credit risk. Kernel discriminant analysis is a non- parametric method which means that it does not require any assumptions about the probability distribution of the input. The main ingredient is a kernel that allows an efficient computation of Fisher discriminant. We use several kernel such as normal, epanechnikov, biweight, and triweight. The models accuracy was compared each other using data from a financial institution in Indonesia. The results show that kernel discriminant can be an alternative method that can be used to determine who is eligible for a credit loan. In the data we use, it shows that a normal kernel is relevant to be selected for credit scoring using kernel discriminant model. Sensitivity and specificity reach to 0.5556 and 0.5488 respectively.

12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart B of... - Risk-Based Capital Stress Test

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... required by statute under stipulated conditions of credit risk and interest rate risk. The stress test uses... credit risk, interest rate risk, the cashflow generator, and the capital calculation. Linkages among the components ensure that the measures of credit and interest rate risk pass into the cashflow generator. The...

Tax credits and purchasing pools: will this marriage work?

Science.gov (United States)

Trude, S; Ginsburg, P B

2001-04-01

Bipartisan interest is growing in Congress for using federal tax credits to help low-income families buy health insurance. Regardless of the approach taken, tax credit policies must address risk selection issues to ensure coverage for the chronically ill. Proposals that link tax credits to purchasing pools would avoid risk selection by grouping risks similar to the way large employers do. Voluntary purchasing pools have had only limited success, however. This Issue Brief discusses linking tax credits to purchasing pools. It uses information from the Center for Studying Health System Change's (HSC) site visits to 12 communities as well as other research to assess the role of purchasing pools nationwide and the key issues and implications of linking tax credits and pools.

Banks’ internal controls and risk management: Value-added functions in Italian credit cooperative banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosaria Cerrone

2013-12-01

Full Text Available A critical component of safe and sound bank management is constituted by an effective and efficient system of internal controls, which help to ensure that the goals and objectives of a bank will be met, that long-term profitability targets will be achieved, and maintain reliable financial and managerial reporting. Such a system can also ensure that the bank will comply with laws and regulations as well as policies, plans, internal rules and procedures, and decrease the risk of unexpected losses or damage to the bank’s reputation. The paper describes the essential elements of a sound internal control system and through a qualitative approach, it shows how is tied to the rules attaining capital requirements and, above all, to the purpose of the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP which aims at determining the adequate capitalisation of a bank given the risks endured as well as future risks arising from growth, and new business lines. After the recent financial crisis ICAAP is becoming more and more relevant and a central component of an effective strategy for managing risk and creating value. All principles and considerations are referred to Italian Credit Cooperative Banks particular both for dimension and for governance and risk management. They have been contacted though local federations and the results confirm the existing of weakness in internal controls.

12 CFR 615.5212 - Credit conversion factors-off-balance sheet items.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

...). The resultant credit equivalent amount is assigned to the appropriate risk-weight category described... directly or indirectly retains or assumes credit risk. For risk participations in such arrangements... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit conversion factors-off-balance sheet...

Rare disasters, credit, and option market puzzles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Du, Du; Elkamhi, Redouane

2017-01-01

calibrated to the real economy can simultaneously explain several key empirical regularities in equity, credit, and options markets. Our model captures the empirical level and volatility of credit spreads, generates a flexible credit risk term structure, and provides a good fit to a century of observed...

A relative risk comparison of criticality control strategies based on fresh fuel and burnup credit design bases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanders, T.L.

1988-01-01

The proposed use of burnup credit in spent fuel cask design and operation represents a departure from current regulatory practice, and creates technical issues that ultimately must be resolved for the concept to be implemented. Issues related to specific technical considerations can generally be resolved conclusively. However, an underlying perception may still exist that the use of burnup credit compromises criticality safety. In practice, individual casks are designed to satisfy regulatory requirements in a generally conservative manner. The designer's application of the regulatory requirements involves some engineering judgement, as does the regulator's implementation of them. This does not have an adverse effect on safety, but does make it difficult to objectively compare new or alternative designs and/or operating approaches. 5 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

13 CFR 120.1060 - Confidentiality of Reports, Risk Ratings and related Confidential Information.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... other than SBA's Lender oversight and SBA's portfolio management purposes. An SBA Lender, Intermediary... conjunction with SBA's Lender Oversight Program and SBA's portfolio management (for purposes of this... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Confidentiality of Reports, Risk...

Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Castro

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Asset correlations are of critical importance in quantifying portfolio credit risk and economic capitalin financial institutions. Estimation of asset correlation with rating transition data has focusedon the point estimation of the correlation without giving any consideration to the uncertaintyaround these point estimates. In this article we use Bayesian methods to estimate a dynamicfactor model for default risk using rating data (McNeil et al., 2005; McNeil and Wendin, 2007.Bayesian methods allow us to formally incorporate human judgement in the estimation of assetcorrelation, through the prior distribution and fully characterize a confidence set for the correlations.Results indicate: i a two factor model rather than the one factor model, as proposed bythe Basel II framework, better represents the historical default data. ii importance of unobservedfactors in this type of models is reinforced and point out that the levels of the implied asset correlationscritically depend on the latent state variable used to capture the dynamics of default,as well as other assumptions on the statistical model. iii the posterior distributions of the assetcorrelations show that the Basel recommended bounds, for this parameter, undermine the levelof systemic risk.

Credit Management System

Data.gov (United States)

US Agency for International Development — Credit Management System. Outsourced Internet-based application. CMS stores and processes data related to USAID credit programs. The system provides information...

CAUTIOUS PRACTICE IN ACCOUNTANCY CREDIT UNITS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riana Iren RADU

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The constitution of the specific risk prevision refers to their creation and is realized including in the cost the sum representing the level of the necessary specific risk provisions, in case there is no provision. The constitutions, regulation and the utilization of specific risk provisions will be realized using the credit currency and/or the investments they correct. Specific risk provisions are to be determined only for the client’s balance sheet engagements. The calculation for the necessary volume of provisions is realized for each and every credit contract referring to the final client classification category.

Methodological Bases for Describing Risks of the Enterprise Business Model in Integrated Reporting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nesterenko Oksana O.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is to substantiate the methodological bases for describing the business and accounting risks of an enterprise business model in integrated reporting for their timely detection and assessment, and develop methods for their leveling or minimizing and possible prevention. It is proposed to consider risks in the process of forming integrated reporting from two sides: first, risks that arise in the business model of an organization and should be disclosed in its integrated report; second, accounting risks of integrated reporting, which should be taken into account by members of the cross-sectoral working group and management personnel in the process of forming and promulgating integrated reporting. To develop an adequate accounting and analytical tool for disclosure of information about the risks of the business model and integrated reporting, their leveling or minimization, in the article a terminological analysis of the essence of entrepreneurial and accounting risks is carried out. The entrepreneurial risk is defined as an objective-subjective economic category that characterizes the probability of negative or positive consequences of economic-social-ecological activity within the framework of the business model of an enterprise under uncertainty. The accounting risk is suggested to be understood as the probability of unfavorable consequences as a result of organizational, methodological errors in the integrated accounting system, which present threat to the quality, accuracy and reliability of the reporting information on economic, social and environmental activities in integrated reporting as well as threat of inappropriate decision-making by stakeholders based on the integrated report. For the timely identification of business risks and maximum leveling of the influence of accounting risks on the process of formation and publication of integrated reporting, in the study the place of entrepreneurial and accounting risks in

Credit Institutions Management Evaluation using Quantitative Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolae Dardac

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Credit institutions supervising mission by state authorities is mostly assimilated with systemic risk prevention. In present, the mission is orientated on analyzing the risk profile of the credit institutions, the mechanism and existing systems as management tools providing to bank rules the proper instruments to avoid and control specific bank risks. Rating systems are sophisticated measurement instruments which are capable to assure the above objectives, such as success in banking risk management. The management quality is one of the most important elements from the set of variables used in the quoting process in credit operations. Evaluation of this quality is – generally speaking – fundamented on quantitative appreciations which can induce subjectivism and heterogeneity in quotation. The problem can be solved by using, complementary, quantitative technics such us DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis.

Efficient estimation of sensitivities for counterparty credit risk with the finite difference Monte Carlo method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C.S.L. de Graaf (Kees); B.D. Kandhai; P.M.A. Sloot

2017-01-01

htmlabstractAccording to Basel III, financial institutions have to charge a credit valuation adjustment (CVA) to account for a possible counterparty default. Calculating this measure and its sensitivities is one of the biggest challenges in risk management. Here, we introduce an efficient method

Determinants of SME credit worthiness under Basel rules: the value of credit history information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Dainelli

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The Basel III Accord has reportedly had an impact on SME financing. In this paper, we aim to highlight the determinants of SME credit worthiness. We use credit history in addition to financial ratios and “hybrid” indicators that have been built by mixing credit history with financial statement data. We develop a failure prediction logit model on 187 Italian SMEs. The use of short-term credit lines is the most important variable. Contrary to common understanding, capitalization levels do not affect ratings. Lastly, credit worthiness is sensitive to sale profitability.

The Term Structure of Credit Spreads on Euro Corporate Bonds

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Landschoot, A.

2003-01-01

Although there is a broad literature on structural credit risk models, there has been little empirical testing of these models.In this paper we examine the term structure of credit spreads on euro corporate bonds and the empirical validation of structural credit risk models.The latter provide a

Hazardous times for monetary policy : What do twenty-three million bank loans say about the effects of monetary policy on credit risk-taking?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jiménez, G.; Ongena, S.; Peydro, J.L.; Saurina, J.

2014-01-01

We identify the effects of monetary policy on credit risk-taking with an exhaustive credit register of loan applications and contracts. We separate the changes in the composition of the supply of credit from the concurrent changes in the volume of supply and quality, and the volume of demand. We

BEHAVIOR BASED CREDIT CARD FRAUD DETECTION USING SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Dheepa

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Along with the great increase of internet and e-commerce, the use of credit card is an unavoidable one. Due to the increase of credit card usage, the frauds associated with this have also increased. There are a lot of approaches used to detect the frauds. In this paper, behavior based classification approach using Support Vector Machines are employed and efficient feature extraction method also adopted. If any discrepancies occur in the behaviors transaction pattern then it is predicted as suspicious and taken for further consideration to find the frauds. Generally credit card fraud detection problem suffers from a large amount of data, which is rectified by the proposed method. Achieving finest accuracy, high fraud catching rate and low false alarms are the main tasks of this approach.

Credit Scoring by Fuzzy Support Vector Machines with a Novel Membership Function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Shi

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Due to the recent financial crisis and European debt crisis, credit risk evaluation has become an increasingly important issue for financial institutions. Reliable credit scoring models are crucial for commercial banks to evaluate the financial performance of clients and have been widely studied in the fields of statistics and machine learning. In this paper a novel fuzzy support vector machine (SVM credit scoring model is proposed for credit risk analysis, in which fuzzy membership is adopted to indicate different contribution of each input point to the learning of SVM classification hyperplane. Considering the methodological consistency, support vector data description (SVDD is introduced to construct the fuzzy membership function and to reduce the effect of outliers and noises. The SVDD-based fuzzy SVM model is tested against the traditional fuzzy SVM on two real-world datasets and the research results confirm the effectiveness of the presented method.

11 CFR 116.3 - Extensions of credit by commercial vendors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... of credit to nonpolitical debtors that are of similar risk and size of obligation. (b) Incorporated... similar to extensions of credit to nonpolitical debtors that are of similar risk and size of obligation... 11 Federal Elections 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Extensions of credit by commercial vendors. 116...

Efficient Estimation of Sensitivities for Counterparty Credit Risk with the Finite Difference Monte Carlo Method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Graaf, C.S.L.; Kandhai, D.; Sloot, P.M.A.

According to Basel III, financial institutions have to charge a credit valuation adjustment (CVA) to account for a possible counterparty default. Calculating this measure and its sensitivities is one of the biggest challenges in risk management. Here, we introduce an efficient method for the

Mechanism Analysis of Credit Risk Conduction of Goverment Departments under Public-PrivatePartnership%公私合作下政府部门信用风险传导机理分析

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

任志涛; 雷瑞波

2017-01-01

以风险共担、利益共享的理念剖析公私合作的内生机理,从系统视域构建公私合作下的政府部门信用风险的传导模型,揭示公私合作下政府部门信用风险的传导机理.研究表明公私合作模式所具有的信用风险内部化特征,促使政府部门信用风险沿着微分动力系统的演变轨迹进行传导,系统均衡状态的均衡点就是信用风险在政府和社会资本之间最优的配置点.在上述基础上,设计公私合作模式下政府部门信用风险管控机制.%This paper analyzes the endogenous mechanism of public-private partnerships based on the concept of risk sharing and benefit sharing. Then,constructs the conduction model of credit risk of government departments under public-private partnership from the point of view of system,andreveals the conduction mechanism of credit risk of government departments under public-private partnership. Research shows that the characteristics of internal credit risk model of public-private partnership promote the government credit risk to conduct along the evolution track of a differential dynamic system,the equilibrium point of system equilibrium state is the optimal allocation point of credit risk between government and social capital. On this basis,designs the credit risk control mechanism of government departments under public-private partnership.

Portfolio Optimization for Multiple Group Credit Unions

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Willis, John

1999-01-01

...) to diversify, credit unions now have the opportunity to market their services to specific employee groups or industries which can reduce the overall risk to the credit unions' health or solvency...

A statistical modeling approach to build expert credit risk rating systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Waagepetersen, Rasmus

2010-01-01

This paper presents an efficient method for extracting expert knowledge when building a credit risk rating system. Experts are asked to rate a sample of counterparty cases according to creditworthiness. Next, a statistical model is used to capture the relation between the characteristics...... of a counterparty and the expert rating. For any counterparty the model can identify the rating, which would be agreed upon by the majority of experts. Furthermore, the model can quantify the concurrence among experts. The approach is illustrated by a case study regarding the construction of an application score...

Handling Uncertainty in Social Lending Credit Risk Prediction with a Choquet Fuzzy Integral Model

OpenAIRE

Namvar, Anahita; Naderpour, Mohsen

2018-01-01

As one of the main business models in the financial technology field, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has disrupted traditional financial services by providing an online platform for lending money that has remarkably reduced financial costs. However, the inherent uncertainty in P2P loans can result in huge financial losses for P2P platforms. Therefore, accurate risk prediction is critical to the success of P2P lending platforms. Indeed, even a small improvement in credit risk prediction would be o...

The market for tradable renewable energy credits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berry, David

2002-01-01

As states seek to foster the development of renewable energy resources, some have introduced renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) which require retailers of electricity to derive a specified amount of their energy supply from renewable energy resources. RPSs in Texas, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada allow for or require the use of tradable renewable energy credits. The price of such credits is expected to reflect the cost premium for generating electricity from renewable resources relative to the market price of conventionally generated electricity. Using the market to trade renewable energy credits exposes buyers and sellers to risks of imperfect information, poor performance, and opportunism. These risks can be managed through contractual arrangements and regulatory requirements pertaining to property rights in credits, pricing, term of the contract, and assurance of performance

Bank Behavior with Access to Credit Risk Transfer Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goderis, B.V.G.; Marsh, I.; Vall Castello, J.; Wagner, W.B.

2006-01-01

One of the most important recent innovations in financial markets has been the development of credit derivative products that allow banks to more actively manage their credit portfolios than ever before.We analyze the effect that access to these markets has had on the lending behavior of a sample of

Credit Card Risk Behavior on College Campuses: Evidence from Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wesley Mendes-da-Silva

2012-07-01

Full Text Available College students frequently show they have little skill when it comes to using a credit card in a responsible manner. This article deals with this issue in an emerging market and in a pioneering manner. University students (n = 769 in São Paulo, Brazil’s main financial center, replied to a questionnaire about their credit card use habits. Using Logit models, associations were discovered between personal characteristics and credit card use habits that involve financially risky behavior. The main results were: (a a larger number of credit cards increases the probability of risky behavior; (b students who alleged they knew what interest rates the card administrators were charging were less inclined to engage in risky behavior. The results are of interest to the financial industry, to university managers and to policy makers. This article points to the advisability, indeed necessity, of providing students with information about the use of financial products (notably credit cards bearing in mind the high interest rates which their users are charged. The findings regarding student behavior in the use of credit cards in emerging economies are both significant and relevant. Furthermore, financial literature, while recognizing the importance of the topic, has not significantly examined the phenomenon in emerging economies.

Determinants affecting consumer adoption of contactless credit card: an empirical study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yu-Min

2008-12-01

The contactless credit card is one of the most promising technological innovations in the field of electronic payments. It provides consumers with greater control of payments, convenience, and transaction speed. However, contactless credit cards have yet to gain significant rates of adoption in the marketplace. Thus, effort must be made to identify factors affecting consumer adoption of contactless credit cards. Based on the technology acceptance model, innovation diffusion theory, and the relevant literature, seven variables (perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, compatibility, perceived risk, trust, consumer involvement, availability of infrastructure) are proposed to help predict consumer adoption of contactless credit cards. Data collected from 312 respondents in Taiwan is tested against the proposed prediction model using the logistic regression approach. The results and implications of our study contribute to an expanded understanding of the factors that affect consumer adoption of contactless credit cards.

Statistical assessment of quality of credit activity of Ukrainian banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moldavska Olena V.

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The article conducts an economic and statistical analysis of the modern state of credit activity of Ukrainian banks and main tendencies of its development. It justifies urgency of the statistical study of credit activity of banks. It offers a complex system of assessment of bank lending at two levels: the level of the banking system and the level of an individual bank. The use of the system analysis allows reflection of interconnection between effectiveness of functioning of the banking system and quality of the credit portfolio. The article considers main aspects of management of quality of the credit portfolio – level of troubled debt and credit risk. The article touches the problem of adequate quantitative assessment of troubled loans in the credit portfolios of banks, since the methodologies of its calculation used by the National Bank of Ukraine and international rating agencies are quite different. The article presents a system of methods of management of credit risk, both theoretically and providing specific examples, in the context of prevention of occurrence of risk situations or elimination of their consequences.

The Dilemmas over Credit Policy Management in a Company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Gorczyńska

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The paper identifies the core dilemmas over the establishment of the credit policy in a company. It considers the general scope and basic stages of credit policy management and analyses each stage of credit policy in terms of decisive aspects. The main areas of concerns are discussed within the settlement of credit policy and its implementation with regard to the model of optimal credit policy. Scientific aim: The paper aims at constructing a unified model of issues rising dilemmas while setting and implementing the credit policy management. It also aims at identifying core decisive problems in each of these fields and at providing a structured questions framework. Methodology/methods: The paper is based on conceptual analysis and deduction of the literature and general review of issues related to credit policy management. It containts autors’ own view on the problems included in each stage of credit policy management. Findings: Credit policy management is a subject for numerous dilemmas. The main areas of concerns are related to: the decision about the goal of credit policy managemet with regard to its restrictiveness, the settlement of credit policy with regard to elements of credit policy, and finally the implementation with regard to the risk of bad debts occurrence. Conclusions: (limits, implications etc The establishment of credit policy in a company requires to balance contrary interests and thus involves wide variety of issues to be considered. The presented model of decisive problems might be applied in each company regardless to their size.

12 CFR Appendix A to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... (as defined in section 2 of this appendix A) by its risk-weighted assets (as calculated pursuant to... customer at the time of the extension or renewal and upon a new, bona fide credit analysis utilizing... organizations that were taken in satisfaction of debts previously contracted, provided that the reporting...

Split credit ratings and the prediction of bank ratings in the Basel II environment

OpenAIRE

Barton, Amanda

2006-01-01

This thesis investigates two aspects of credit risk measurement in the context of Basel 11: The International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards. The first is the problem arising when two credit rating agencies disagree over the rating assigned to an issuer and a split rating arises. The second area is the determination of internal credit rating models for use under the Internal ratings-based approach. This thesis presents a variety of bank rating modes for individual an...

13 CFR 120.333 - Are there any special credit criteria?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... addition to regular credit evaluation criteria, SBA shall weigh the greater risk associated with energy... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Are there any special credit criteria? 120.333 Section 120.333 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS...

Stepwise Analysis of Differential Item Functioning Based on Multiple-Group Partial Credit Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Muraki, Eiji

1999-01-01

Extended an Item Response Theory (IRT) method for detection of differential item functioning to the partial credit model and applied the method to simulated data using a stepwise procedure. Then applied the stepwise DIF analysis based on the multiple-group partial credit model to writing trend data from the National Assessment of Educational…

Overcoming credit card fraud in South Africa

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A credit card is a convenient method of payment, but it does carry risks. The enormous ... Identity theft and the exponential ... Unique Security Features of a Credit Card with the Aim of Identifying ..... technology in an attempt to try and curb the.

Factors Affecting the Behavior of University Community to Use Credit Card

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maya Sari

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This study was aimed to gain insights and tested the factors that influence credit cards usage in university community of UPI through Theory of Planned Behavior model approach. Using Path Analysis to explain the direct and indirect influence of attitude, subjective norm and behavioral control to intention and behavior of credit card usage. The results showed all respondents have a positive attitude towards credit cards usage, with high influence of subjective norm, high behavior control, high intention to use credit cards and all respondents used credit cards wisely. There was positive and significant effect either simultaneously or partially between behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and behavior control toward the intention to use credit card. The partial test results showed behavioral attitude has the greatest influence on the intention to use credit card. There was a positive and significant influence both simultaneously and partially between behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and behavioral control on default-risk debt behavior. The partial results showed that attitude gives the greatest influence on default debt risk behavior. The result also proved there was a positive and significant influence of the intention to use credit card on default debt risk behavior.

Calibration of a Credit Rating Scale for Polish Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksandra Wójcicka

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Increasing number of bankruptcy announcements means that even greater attention is being paid to the correct evaluation of the probability of default (PD and decisions made on the basis of it. Reliable estimation of the likelihood of a company's bankruptcy reduces risk, not only for the company itself but also for all co-operating companies and financial institutions. The financial crisis has led to a tightening up of the conditions for gaining finance from banks. However, it is not only the evaluation of PD itself that is so important but also the correct classification of companies according to their PD level ("good" or "bad" companies. There is very little consideration about possible adjustments of the credit risk scale, as usually the American scale is adopted with no changes which seems incorrect.This paper stresses the importance of correct calibration of the credit rating scale. It should not be assumed (as it was in the past that once a scale is defined it remains fixed and independent of the country. Therefore, the research carried out on Polish companies shows that the credit rating scale should be changed and the default point (i.e. "cut-off" point should be higher than in the past. The author uses a modified classification matrix based on the probability of default. The paper compares the classification of quoted Polish companies according to their credit risk level (PD with the actual occurrence of default when various default "cut-off" points are used. (original abstract

Credit-Based Systems as Vehicles for Change in Universities and Colleges. Managing Innovation and Change in Universities and Colleges.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Robert; Layer, Geoff

This book discusses organizational, management and professional dimensions of change as credit-based systems are introduced in higher education institutions in the United Kingdom. Credit-based systems are taken to mean the flexible academic structures based around the parallel but interrelated concepts of credit and modularity. They are being…

13 CFR 120.1511 - Certification and other reporting and notification requirements for Other Regulated SBLCs.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Certification and other reporting and notification requirements for Other Regulated SBLCs. 120.1511 Section 120.1511 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Enforcement Actions § 120...

Credit Rating via Dynamic Slack-Based Measure And It´s Optimal Investment Strategy

OpenAIRE

A. Delavarkhalafi; A. Poursherafatan

2015-01-01

In this paper we check the credit rating of firms applied for a loan. In this regard we introduce a model, named Dynamic Slack-Based Measure (DSBM) for measuring credit rating of applicant companies. Selection of financial ratios that represent the financial state of a company -in the best possible way- is one of the most challenging parts of any credit rating analysis. At first, ranking needs to identify the appropriate variables. Therefore we introduce five financial variables to provide a ...

Two echelon partial trade credit financing in a supply chain derived algebraically

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaggi Chandra K.

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Trade credit financing has become a powerful tool to improve sales & profit in an industry. In general, a supplier/retailer frequently offers trade credit to its credit risk downstream member in order to stimulate their respective sales. This trade credit may either be full or partial depending upon the past profile of the downstream member. Partial trade credit may be offered by the supplier/retailer to their credit risk downstream member who must pay a portion of the purchase amount at the time of placing an order and then receives a permissible delay on the rest of the outstanding amount to avoid non-payment risks. The present study investigates the retailer’s inventory problem under partial trade credit financing for two echelon supply chain where the supplier, as well as the retailer, offers partial trade credit to the subsequent downstream member. An algebraic approach has been applied for finding the retailer’s optimal ordering policy under minimizing the annual total relevant cost. Results have been validated with the help of examples followed by comprehensive sensitivity analysis.

Credit Risk Determinants in the Vulnerable Economies of Europe: Evidence from the Spanish Banking System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gila-Gourgoura, E.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of non-performing loans in the Spanish banking system over the period 1997Q4–2015Q3. This timeframe includes not only the booming period for the Spanish economy but also an extended post-crises interval which is missing from other studies for Spain. Design/methodology/approach: Using quarterly data from the Central Bank of Spain and from the European Central Bank, the paper employs the ARDL approach to cointegration to identify the existence of a long or short-run relationship between NPLs and a set of macroeconomic, bank-related and country-specific indicators. Findings: Findings from the ARDL model indicate that macroeconomic, bank-specific variables and interest rates are important determinants of non-performing loans in the Spanish banking system. Specifically, the real GDP, the Spanish long-term government bond yield, the return on equity, the total credit granted by the Spanish banks and their capital to assets ratio, explain credit risk in Spain both in the short and the long run. Research limitations/implications: Data on the bank-specific variables are for the whole banking industry, and not for individual banks. If such data were available, a comparison of the credit risk determinants between small/ big banks, private/public or domestic/foreign could be possibly made. Originality/value: These findings provide useful evidence to bank managers and policymakers in dealing with loans' defaults in Spain and in undertaking crucial reforms to stabilize the economy.

In Our Best Interest: Women, Financial Literacy, and Credit Card Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gary R. Mottola

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Data from the FINRA Foundation National Financial Capability Study revealed that women with low levels of financial literacy were more likely to engage in costly credit card behaviors—like incurring late and over-the-limit fees—than men with low financial literacy. There were, however, no differences in behavior between men and women with high financial literacy. Further, women and low financial literacy respondents reported paying higher interest rates on their credit cards. These findings suggest that increasing financial literacy may help reduce some gender-based differences in credit card behavior and lower credit card interest rates for both men and women.

Curriculum Development through YTS Modular Credit Accumulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Further Education Unit, London (England).

This document reports the evaluation of the collaborately developed Modular Training Framework (MainFrame), a British curriculum development project, built around a commitment to a competency-based, modular credit accumulation program. The collaborators were three local education authorities (LEAs), those of Bedfordshire, Haringey, and Sheffield,…

Comment on Geoengineering with seagrasses: is credit due where credit is given?

Science.gov (United States)

Oreska, Matthew P. J.; McGlathery, Karen J.; Emmer, Igino M.; Needelman, Brian A.; Emmett-Mattox, Stephen; Crooks, Stephen; Megonigal, J. Patrick; Myers, Doug

2018-03-01

In their recent review, ‘Geoengineering with seagrasses: is credit due where credit is given?,’ Johannessen and Macdonald (2016) invoke the prospect of carbon offset-credit over-allocation by the Verified Carbon Standard as a pretense for their concerns about published seagrass carbon burial rate and global stock estimates. Johannessen and Macdonald (2016) suggest that projects seeking offset-credits under the Verified Carbon Standard methodology VM0033: Methodology for Tidal Wetland and Seagrass Restoration will overestimate long-term (100 yr) sediment organic carbon (SOC) storage because issues affecting carbon burial rates bias storage estimates. These issues warrant serious consideration by the seagrass research community; however, VM0033 does not refer to seagrass SOC ‘burial rates’ or ‘storage.’ Projects seeking credits under VM0033 must document greenhouse gas emission reductions over time, relative to a baseline scenario, in order to receive credits. Projects must also monitor changes in carbon pools, including SOC, to confirm that observed benefits are maintained over time. However, VM0033 allows projects to conservatively underestimate project benefits by citing default values for specific accounting parameters, including CO2 emissions reductions. We therefore acknowledge that carbon crediting methodologies such as VM0033 are sensitive to the quality of the seagrass literature, particularly when permitted default factors are based in part on seagrass burial rates. Literature-derived values should be evaluated based on the concerns raised by Johannessen and Macdonald (2016), but these issues should not lead to credit over-allocation in practice, provided VM0033 is rigorously followed. These issues may, however, affect the feasibility of particular seagrass offset projects.

77 FR 22019 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; ICE Clear Credit LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change to...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-04-12

... recommendations to approve from the ICE Clear Credit Risk Committee on March 21, 2012, and the ICE Clear Credit Risk Management Subcommittee on March 7, 2012. However, the ICE Clear Credit Board, Risk Committee and...). The concerns raised by the ICE Clear Credit Board, Risk Committee, and Risk Management Subcommittee...

Securitization, Credit Rating and Issuers’ Characteristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mauricio Palmada Fernandes

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Given the growth of securitization through Credit Receivables Investment Funds (Fundos de Investimento em Direitos Creditórios - FIDCs in Brazil in recent years, this work aims to investigate empirically the relationship between securitization and credit rating in the Brazilian market. All issues of FIDCs held by banks and registered in the CVM from 2005 to July 2010 were analyzed. The two hypotheses discussed by Gorton and Souleles (2005 were confirmed to Brazilian financial institutions. There is evidence of an implied contract between the transferor companies and investors in securitizations made via FIDCs. Companies with higher credit risk, worst ratings, tend to securitize more. However no relationship was found between securitization and asset value, amount of loans or capital ratio.

MBS Ratings and the Mortgage Credit Boom

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ashcraft, A.; Goldsmith-Pinkham, P.; Vickery, J.

2010-01-01

We study credit ratings on subprime and Alt-A mortgage-backed securities (MBS) deals issued between 2001 and 2007, the period leading up to the subprime crisis. The fraction of highly-rated securities in each deal is decreasing in mortgage credit risk (measured either ex-ante or ex-post), suggesting

13 CFR 120.1015 - Risk Rating System.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Rating System. 120.1015 Section 120.1015 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1015 Risk Rating System. (a) Risk Rating. SBA may assign a Risk Rating...

Exchange credit risk: Measurement and implications on the stability of partially dollarized financial systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ernesto Mordecki

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Some emergent economies present a high financial dollarization in loans and deposits, generating a specific risk in the banking activity. We quantify this exchange credit risk as the price of an option equivalent to this loan, and discuss the financial stability implications due to the (implicit issuance of these options. The exchange rate is modeled through a Levy process. The depth of the market depends on the type of the currencies involved. Whenever possible, we depart from option prices to calibrate a model, like in the EUR/USD market. But if the market is not liquid, as the USD/UYU market, we provide alternative pricing methodologies.

Trade Credit and Informational Asymmetry.

OpenAIRE

Smith, Janet Kiholm

1987-01-01

Commonly used trade credit terms implicitly define a high interest rate that operates as an efficient screening device where information about buyer default risk is asymmetrically held. By offering trade credit, a seller can identify prospective defaults more quickl y than if financial institutions were the sole providers of short-ter m financing. The information is valuable in cases where a seller has made nonsalvageable investments in buyers since it enables the seller to take actions to pr...

Burnup credit activities in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lake, W.H.; Thomas, D.A.; Doering, T.W.

2001-01-01

This report covers progress in burnup credit activities that have occurred in the United States of America (USA) since the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA's) Advisory Group Meeting (AGM) on Burnup Credit was convened in October 1997. The Proceeding of the AGM were issued in April 1998 (IAEA-TECDOC-1013, April 1998). The three applications of the use of burnup credit that are discussed in this report are spent fuel storage, spent fuel transportation, and spent fuel disposal. (author)

Credit Rating As a Factor of Stability in the Global Capital Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ismail Musabegović

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Credit rating has an outstanding importance on the capital market. Opinions and assessments of rating agencies help us to improve growth, stability and efficiency of international and domestic markets, which now include over 80 trillion dollars of rated bonds and other securities with the fixed income. The contribution of the credit agencies to the market stability and efficiency is reflected in their ability to provide accurate, clear and reliable assessments of the solvency of participants on the financial markets. An adequate and proper risk assessment of securities contributes to stability. In order to achieve a given goal and to satisfy its purpose, the assessments should be based on a fundamental understanding of the key components of the credit risk. Also, in order to ensure a reliable framework for making investment decisions, the rating agencies are obliged to offer and to provide a wide range of securities, which are based on a global comparability of rating symbols and onthe support given by the credit rating assignment committee and by the other relevant decision making bodies. Markets for structured products could not have developed without the quality assurance provided by CRAs. When analyzing a securitization program CRAs examine legal and structural protections provided to investors. Since the globalization is an inevitable phenomenon in today’s world the importance of the credit rating becomes more noticeable. On the other hand, the rating agencies have an obligation to reanalyze their decision making models in order to contribute tothe reliability of the evaluation.

Efficient PDE based numerical estimation of credit and liquidity risk measures for realistic derivative portfolios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Graaf, C.S.L.

2016-01-01

In the Basel III accords in 2013, it was stated that financial institutions should charge Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) to their counterparties for (previously under-regulated) Over-The-Counter (OTC) trades. This CVA can be used to hedge a possible default of the counterparty. One important

76 FR 39989 - Guidance on Deposit-Related Consumer Credit Products

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-07

... Policy, (202) 874-4428; or Kevin Russell, Director, Retail Credit Risk, (202) 874-5170, Office of the...] Guidance on Deposit-Related Consumer Credit Products AGENCY: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency... principles of safe and sound banking practices in connection with deposit-related consumer credit products...

12 CFR 614.4590 - Equitable treatment of OFIs and Farm Credit System associations.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... differences in credit risk and administrative costs to the Farm Credit Bank or agricultural credit bank. (c... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Equitable treatment of OFIs and Farm Credit System associations. 614.4590 Section 614.4590 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT...

Mud Pit Risk-Based Closure Strategy Report, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, Revision 0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brain Hoenes

2004-08-01

This report presents the findings of the human and ecological risk assessment for the NTS mud pits. The risk assessment utilizes data from 52 of the 270 NTS mud pits in conjunction with corroborative data from 87 other DOE mud pits associated with nuclear testing (at locations on the NTS, in the western United States, and Alaska) as well as relevant process knowledge. Based on the risk assessment findings, the report provides a strategy for further evaluation, characterization, and closure of all 270 NTS mud pit CASs using the Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER).

Construction and Application Research of Isomap-RVM Credit Assessment Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guangrong Tong

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Credit assessment is the basis and premise of credit risk management systems. Accurate and scientific credit assessment is of great significance to the operational decisions of shareholders, corporate creditors, and management. Building a good and reliable credit assessment model is key to credit assessment. Traditional credit assessment models are constructed using the support vector machine (SVM combined with certain traditional dimensionality reduction algorithms. When constructing such a model, the dimensionality reduction algorithms are first applied to reduce the dimensions of the samples, so as to prevent the correlation of the samples’ characteristic index from being too high. Then, machine learning of the samples will be conducted using the SVM, in order to carry out classification assessment. To further improve the accuracy of credit assessment methods, this paper has introduced more cutting-edge algorithms, applied isometric feature mapping (Isomap for dimensionality reduction, and used the relevance vector machine (RVM for credit classification. It has constructed an Isomap-RVM model and used it to conduct financial analysis of China's listed companies. The empirical analysis shows that the credit assessment accuracy of the Isomap-RVM model is significantly higher than that of the Isomap-SVM model and slightly higher than that of the PCA-RVM model. It can correctly identify the credit risks of listed companies.

76 FR 44462 - Statement of General Policy or Interpretation; Commentary on the Fair Credit Reporting Act

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-26

... collection, assembly, and use of consumer report information and provides the framework for the credit... increased the obligations of users of consumer reports, particularly employers. Most significantly, the 1996... transferred authority to issue interpretive guidance under the FCRA to the Consumer Financial Protection...

CreditCoin: A Privacy-Preserving Blockchain-Based Incentive Announcement Network for Communications of Smart Vehicles

KAUST Repository

Li, Lun

2018-01-23

The vehicular announcement network is one of the most promising utilities in the communications of smart vehicles and in the smart transportation systems. In general, there are two major issues in building an effective vehicular announcement network. First, it is difficult to forward reliable announcements without revealing users\\' identities. Second, users usually lack the motivation to forward announcements. In this paper, we endeavor to resolve these two issues through proposing an effective announcement network called CreditCoin, a novel privacy-preserving incentive announcement network based on Blockchain via an efficient anonymous vehicular announcement aggregation protocol. On the one hand, CreditCoin allows nondeterministic different signers (i.e., users) to generate the signatures and to send announcements anonymously in the nonfully trusted environment. On the other hand, with Blockchain, CreditCoin motivates users with incentives to share traffic information. In addition, transactions and account information in CreditCoin are tamper-resistant. CreditCoin also achieves conditional privacy since Trace manager in CreditCoin traces malicious users\\' identities in anonymous announcements with related transactions. CreditCoin thus is able to motivate users to forward announcements anonymously and reliably. Extensive experimental results show that CreditCoin is efficient and practical in simulations of smart transportation.

Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Credit Risk of Banks in Developed and Developing Countries: Dynamic Panel Method

OpenAIRE

Ghyasi, Azar

2016-01-01

Globalization phenomenon provided a suitable environment with new opportunities for investment in various countries. In this way, the issue of credit risk of countries and rankings of international ranking institutions has become more important. Owing to the fact that using values and numbers and quantization of the measured variables in evaluation of the risk of countries is considered as an appropriate tool for analysis of the economic status of each country. In this paper, it is tried to e...

The Relationship Between Corporate Governance Characteristics and Credit Exposure in Banks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rose, Caspar

2017-01-01

estate loans. By employing quantitative governance variables the article finds that increased executive director remuneration is associated with increased credit risk posed by the bank’s borrowers. On the other hand, increasing the number of executive/“inside” directors is associated with a lower credit...... executive director remuneration. The policy implication is that financial authorities should be increasingly aware of insufficient corporate governance characteristics in order to prevent excessive credit risk exposure. Moreover, the article provides important insights on which corporate governance...... the “Supervision Diamond” introduced by the Danish FSA, which “external” board directors must address. It contains five thresholds for measuring a bank’s exposure to credit risks i.e. the proportion of large customers, lending growth, the ratio of lending/deposits, liquidity buffer and the proportion of real...

Retailer's optimal credit period and cycle time in a supply chain for deteriorating items with up-stream and down-stream trade credits

Science.gov (United States)

Mahata, Gour Chandra

2015-09-01

In practice, the supplier often offers the retailers a trade credit period and the retailer in turn provides a trade credit period to her/his customer to stimulate sales and reduce inventory. From the retailer's perspective, granting trade credit not only increases sales and revenue but also increases opportunity cost (i.e., the capital opportunity loss during credit period) and default risk (i.e., the percentage that the customer will not be able to pay off his/her debt obligations). Hence, how to determine credit period is increasingly recognized as an important strategy to increase retailer's profitability. Also, the selling items such as fruits, fresh fishes, gasoline, photographic films, pharmaceuticals and volatile liquids deteriorate continuously due to evaporation, obsolescence and spoilage. In this paper, we propose an economic order quantity model for the retailer where (1) the supplier provides an up-stream trade credit and the retailer also offers a down-stream trade credit, (2) the retailer's down-stream trade credit to the buyer not only increases sales and revenue but also opportunity cost and default risk, and (3) the selling items are perishable. Under these conditions, we model the retailer's inventory system as a profit maximization problem to determine the retailer's optimal replenishment decisions under the supply chain management. We then show that the retailer's optimal credit period and cycle time not only exist but also are unique. We deduce some previously published results of other researchers as special cases. Finally, we use some numerical examples to illustrate the theoretical results.

CREDIT Performance Indicator Framework

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frandsen, Anne Kathrine; Bertelsen, Niels Haldor; Haugbølle, Kim

2010-01-01

During the past two years the Nordic Baltic research project CREDIT (Construction and Real Estate – Developing Indicators for Transparency) has worked with the aim to improve transparency of value creation in building and real estate. One of the central deliverables of the CREDIT project was a fr......During the past two years the Nordic Baltic research project CREDIT (Construction and Real Estate – Developing Indicators for Transparency) has worked with the aim to improve transparency of value creation in building and real estate. One of the central deliverables of the CREDIT project...... was a framework of indicators relevant in building and real estate and applicable in the Nordic and Baltic countries as well as a proposal for a set of key indicators. The study resulting in CREDIT Performance Indicator Framework has been based on 28 case studies of evaluation practises in the building and real...... estate sector each addressing three interlinked levels: building/ projects level, company or enterprise level and benchmarking system level. Additionally it has been based on dialogue with researchers and professional organisation, international research and standardisation work and national building...

Risk factors in oil and gas lending

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

David, A.; Kipp, J.M.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that with the increasing internationalization of the petroleum industry, lenders to the industry must understand and overcome several new credit risk factors. As a result, new financial products are now available to reserve-based borrowers. Traditional project financing now also may include futures hedging, swaps, and collar elements

Using a transactor/revolver scorecard to make credit and pricing decisions

OpenAIRE

So, M.C.; Thomas, L.C.; Seow, H-V; Mues, C.

2014-01-01

In consumer lending the traditional approach is to develop a credit scorecard which ranks borrowers according to their risk of defaulting. Bads have a high risk of default and Goods have a low risk. To maximise the profitability of credit card customers, a second classification between revolvers and transactors becomes important. Building a transactor/revolver scorecard together with a Good/Bad scorecard over the revolvers, gives rise to a risk decision system whose ranking of risk is compara...

Documentary Letters of Credit, Legal Nature and Sources of Law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alavi Hamed

2016-06-01

Full Text Available There is no doubt about risky nature of international trade. Such risk can be conceptualized as country risk, transportation risk, customer risk and etc. Documentary Letters of Credit (LC are used as a method of payment in international business for many centuries in order to reduce risk of trade specially when parties are located in different countries and do not have precise information from financial standing of each other. In such occasion LC will reduce the risk of trade by shifting payment obligation from buyer as an individual to a payment guarantee of a bank as a legal entity in return for presentation of complying documents with terms of credit by seller. Familiarity with legal nature and different legal frameworks which govern the international operation of documentary letters of credit can facilitate the process of international trade for businessmen and boost national economies. However, lack of knowledge about them can impose huge losses on international traders. Situation will be more complicated when we understand that there are many internationally recognized legal frameworks which can affect the operation of LC and they get frequently updated in order to address technological and economic developments in global market. In this paper, author tries to answer questions regarding (i what are international legal frameworks governing operation of documentary letters of credit? (ii which areas of LC operation has been covered by them and (iii how do they address the legal questions regarding international operation of documentary letters of credit?

Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach

OpenAIRE

Düllmann, Klaus; Puzanova, Natalia

2011-01-01

We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks' contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks' systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks' assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic risk in terms of the portfolio expected shortfall (ES). Banks' (marginal) risk contributions are calculated based on partial derivatives of the ES in order to ensure a full risk allocation among institutions...

77 FR 35253 - Alternatives to the Use of External Credit Ratings in the Regulations of the OCC

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-13

... Corn, Director for Market Risk, Credit and Market Risk Division, (202) 874-4660; Michael Drennan, Senior Advisor, Credit and Market Risk Division, (202) 874-4660; Carl Kaminski, Senior Attorney, or Kevin... valuable sources of information and provide national banks with a standardized credit risk indicator, if a...

State Electricity Regulatory Policy and Distributed Resources: Distributed Resource Distribution Credit Pilot Programs--Revealing the Value to Consumers and Vendors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moskovitz, D.; Harrington, C.; Shirley, W.; Cowart, R.; Sedano, R.; Weston, F.

2002-10-01

Designing and implementing credit-based pilot programs for distributed resources distribution is a low-cost, low-risk opportunity to find out how these resources can help defer or avoid costly electric power system (utility grid) distribution upgrades. This report describes implementation options for deaveraged distribution credits and distributed resource development zones. Developing workable programs implementing these policies can dramatically increase the deployment of distributed resources in ways that benefit distributed resource vendors, users, and distribution utilities. This report is one in the State Electricity Regulatory Policy and Distributed Resources series developed under contract to NREL (see Annual Technical Status Report of the Regulatory Assistance Project: September 2000-September 2001, NREL/SR-560-32733). Other titles in this series are: (1) Accommodating Distributed Resources in Wholesale Markets, NREL/SR-560-32497; (2) Distributed Resources and Electric System Re liability, NREL/SR-560-32498; (3) Distribution System Cost Methodologies for Distributed Generation, NREL/SR-560-32500; (4) Distribution System Cost Methodologies for Distributed Generation Appendices, NREL/SR-560-32501.

Community-based asthma care: trial of a "credit card" asthma self-management plan.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Souza, W; Crane, J; Burgess, C; Te Karu, H; Fox, C; Harper, M; Robson, B; Howden-Chapman, P; Crossland, L; Woodman, K

1994-07-01

Although asthma self-management plans are widely recommended as essential in the long-term treatment of adult asthma, there have been few studies examining their use. Our objective was to assess the effect of a "credit card" adult asthma self-management plan in a community experiencing major health problems from asthma, by means of a before and after intervention trial of the efficacy of the "credit card" plan, when introduced through community-based asthma clinics. The participants were 69 Maori people with asthma. The "credit card" plan consisted of written guidelines for the self-management of asthma, based on self-assessment of asthma severity, printed on a plastic card. On one side, management guidelines were based on the interpretation of peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) recordings, whilst the reverse side was based on symptoms. The outcome measures used were before and after comparison of markers of asthma morbidity and requirement for acute medical treatment; and a structured questionnaire assessing the acceptability and use of the credit card plan. Following the introduction of the plan, the mean PEFR increased from 347 to 389 l.min-1, the percentage of nights woken fell from 30.4 to 16.9%, and the number of days "out of action" fell from 3.8 to 1.7%. The requirements for acute medical treatment also fell during the intervention period. Most participants commented favourably on the content and usefulness of the plan. In the situation of worsening asthma, 28% of subjects found the peak flow side of the card most helpful, 7% the symptoms side, and 48% found both sides equally helpful.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Risk Reporting: An Analysis of the German Banking Industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L. van Oorschot (Laura)

2010-01-01

textabstractExecutive summary The recent financial crisis resulted in an increased attention on the risks of banks and their financial instruments. This article discusses the outcomes of a study on the quantity and quality of market, credit, and liquidity risk disclosures and the relationship 1)

A hybrid model using decision tree and neural network for credit scoring problem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amir Arzy Soltan

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Nowadays credit scoring is an important issue for financial and monetary organizations that has substantial impact on reduction of customer attraction risks. Identification of high risk customer can reduce finished cost. An accurate classification of customer and low type 1 and type 2 errors have been investigated in many studies. The primary objective of this paper is to develop a new method, which chooses the best neural network architecture based on one column hidden layer MLP, multiple columns hidden layers MLP, RBFN and decision trees and ensembling them with voting methods. The proposed method of this paper is run on an Australian credit data and a private bank in Iran called Export Development Bank of Iran and the results are used for making solution in low customer attraction risks.

Credit risk assessment model for Jordanian commercial banks: Neural scoring approach