Computerized cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base for fusion devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, W.R.; Rothe, K.E.

1985-01-01

An automated approach to performing and cataloging cost estimates has been developed at the Fusion Engineering Design Center (FEDC), wherein the cost estimate record is stored in the LOTUS 1-2-3 spreadsheet on an IBM personal computer. The cost estimation spreadsheet is based on the cost coefficient/cost algorithm approach and incorporates a detailed generic code of cost accounts for both tokamak and tandem mirror devices. Component design parameters (weight, surface area, etc.) and cost factors are input, and direct and indirect costs are calculated. The cost data base file derived from actual cost experience within the fusion community and refined to be compatible with the spreadsheet costing approach is a catalog of cost coefficients, algorithms, and component costs arranged into data modules corresponding to specific components and/or subsystems. Each data module contains engineering, equipment, and installation labor cost data for different configurations and types of the specific component or subsystem. This paper describes the assumptions, definitions, methodology, and architecture incorporated in the development of the cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base, along with the type of input required and the output format

Well-founded cost estimation validated by experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaGuardia, T.S.

2005-01-01

Full text: Reliable cost estimating is one of the most important elements of decommissioning planning. Alternative technologies may be evaluated and compared based on their efficiency and effectiveness, and measured against a baseline cost as to the feasibility and benefits derived from the technology. When the plan is complete, those cost considerations ensure that it is economically sound and practical for funding. Estimates of decommissioning costs have been performed and published by many organizations for many different applications. The results often vary because of differences in the work scope. Labor force cost, monetary considerations, oversight costs, the specific contaminated materials involved, the waste stream and peripheral costs associated with that type of waste, or applicable environmental compliance requirements. Many of these differences are unavoidable since a reasonable degree of reliability and accuracy can only be achieved by developing decommissioning cost estimates on a case-by-case site-specific basis. This paper describes the estimating methodology and process applied to develop decommissioning cost estimates. A major effort has been made to standardize these methodologies, and to understand the assumptions and bases that drive the costs. However, estimates are only as accurate as the information available from which to derive the costs. This information includes the assumptions of scope of the work, labour cost inputs, inflationary effects, and financial analyses that project these costs to year of expenditure. Attempts at comparison of estimates for two facilities of similar design and size must clearly identify the assumptions used in developing the estimate, and comparison of actual costs versus estimated costs must reflect these same assumptions. For the nuclear industry to grow, decommissioning estimating tools must improve to keep pace with changing technology, regulations and stakeholder issues. The decommissioning industry needs

NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Hihn, Jairus; Juster, Leora; Menzies, Tim; Mathew, George; Johnson, James

2015-01-01

The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

Parametric cost estimation for space science missions

Science.gov (United States)

Lillie, Charles F.; Thompson, Bruce E.

2008-07-01

Cost estimation for space science missions is critically important in budgeting for successful missions. The process requires consideration of a number of parameters, where many of the values are only known to a limited accuracy. The results of cost estimation are not perfect, but must be calculated and compared with the estimates that the government uses for budgeting purposes. Uncertainties in the input parameters result from evolving requirements for missions that are typically the "first of a kind" with "state-of-the-art" instruments and new spacecraft and payload technologies that make it difficult to base estimates on the cost histories of previous missions. Even the cost of heritage avionics is uncertain due to parts obsolescence and the resulting redesign work. Through experience and use of industry best practices developed in participation with the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), Northrop Grumman has developed a parametric modeling approach that can provide a reasonably accurate cost range and most probable cost for future space missions. During the initial mission phases, the approach uses mass- and powerbased cost estimating relationships (CER)'s developed with historical data from previous missions. In later mission phases, when the mission requirements are better defined, these estimates are updated with vendor's bids and "bottoms- up", "grass-roots" material and labor cost estimates based on detailed schedules and assigned tasks. In this paper we describe how we develop our CER's for parametric cost estimation and how they can be applied to estimate the costs for future space science missions like those presented to the Astronomy & Astrophysics Decadal Survey Study Committees.

Food irradiation : estimates of cost of processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krishnamurthy, K.; Bongirwar, D.R.

1987-01-01

For estimating the cost of food irradiation, three factors have to be taken into consideration. These are : (1) capital cost incurred on irradiation device and its installation, (2) recurring or running cost which includes maintenance cost and operational expenditure, and (3) product specific cost dependent on the factors specific to the food item to be processed, its storage, handling and distribution. A simple method is proposed to provide estimates of capital costs and running costs and it is applied to prepare a detailed estimate of costs for irradiation processing of onions and fish in India. The cost of processing onions worked out to be between Rs. 40 to 120 per 1000 Kg and for fish Rs 354 per 1000 Kg. These estimates do not take into account transparation costs and fluctuations in marketing procedures. (M.G.B.). 7 tables

ICPP tank farm closure study. Volume III: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-02-01

This volume contains information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the six options described in Volume 1, Section 2: Option 1 -- Total removal clean closure; No subsequent use; Option 2 -- Risk-based clean closure; LLW fill; Option 3 -- Risk-based clean closure; CERCLA fill; Option 4 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; LLW fill; Option 5 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; CERCLA fill; and Option 6 -- Close to RCRA landfill standards; Clean fill. This volume is divided into two portions. The first portion contains the cost and planning schedule estimates while the second portion contains life-cycle costs and yearly cash flow information for each option

Cost Estimation and Control for Flight Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Hammond, Walter E.; Vanhook, Michael E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Good program management practices, cost analysis, cost estimation, and cost control for aerospace flight systems are interrelated and depend upon each other. The best cost control process cannot overcome poor design or poor systems trades that lead to the wrong approach. The project needs robust Technical, Schedule, Cost, Risk, and Cost Risk practices before it can incorporate adequate Cost Control. Cost analysis both precedes and follows cost estimation -- the two are closely coupled with each other and with Risk analysis. Parametric cost estimating relationships and computerized models are most often used. NASA has learned some valuable lessons in controlling cost problems, and recommends use of a summary Project Manager's checklist as shown here.

Estimating the cost of a smoking employee.

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, Micah; Crane, Rob; Seiber, Eric; Munur, Mehmet

2014-09-01

We attempted to estimate the excess annual costs that a US private employer may attribute to employing an individual who smokes tobacco as compared to a non-smoking employee. Reviewing and synthesising previous literature estimating certain discrete costs associated with smoking employees, we developed a cost estimation approach that approximates the total of such costs for U.S. employers. We examined absenteeism, presenteesim, smoking breaks, healthcare costs and pension benefits for smokers. Our best estimate of the annual excess cost to employ a smoker is $5816. This estimate should be taken as a general indicator of the extent of excess costs, not as a predictive point value. Employees who smoke impose significant excess costs on private employers. The results of this study may help inform employer decisions about tobacco-related policies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Outer planet probe cost estimates: First impressions

Science.gov (United States)

Niehoff, J.

1974-01-01

An examination was made of early estimates of outer planetary atmospheric probe cost by comparing the estimates with past planetary projects. Of particular interest is identification of project elements which are likely cost drivers for future probe missions. Data are divided into two parts: first, the description of a cost model developed by SAI for the Planetary Programs Office of NASA, and second, use of this model and its data base to evaluate estimates of probe costs. Several observations are offered in conclusion regarding the credibility of current estimates and specific areas of the outer planet probe concept most vulnerable to cost escalation.

Decommissioning Cost Estimating -The ''Price'' Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manning, R.; Gilmour, J.

2002-01-01

Over the past 9 years UKAEA has developed a formalized approach to decommissioning cost estimating. The estimating methodology and computer-based application are known collectively as the PRICE system. At the heart of the system is a database (the knowledge base) which holds resource demand data on a comprehensive range of decommissioning activities. This data is used in conjunction with project specific information (the quantities of specific components) to produce decommissioning cost estimates. PRICE is a dynamic cost-estimating tool, which can satisfy both strategic planning and project management needs. With a relatively limited analysis a basic PRICE estimate can be produced and used for the purposes of strategic planning. This same estimate can be enhanced and improved, primarily by the improvement of detail, to support sanction expenditure proposals, and also as a tender assessment and project management tool. The paper will: describe the principles of the PRICE estimating system; report on the experiences of applying the system to a wide range of projects from contaminated car parks to nuclear reactors; provide information on the performance of the system in relation to historic estimates, tender bids, and outturn costs

Stochastic cost estimating in repository life-cycle cost analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tzemos, S.; Dippold, D.

1986-01-01

The conceptual development, the design, and the final construction and operation of a nuclear repository span many decades. Given this lengthy time frame, it is quite challenging to obtain a good approximation of the repository life-cycle cost. One can deal with this challenge by using an analytic method, the method of moments, to explicitly assess the uncertainty of the estimate. A series expansion is used to approximate the uncertainty distribution of the cost estimate. In this paper, the moment methodology is derived and is illustrated through a numerical example. The range of validity of the approximation is discussed. The method of moments is compared to the traditional stochastic cost estimating methods and found to provide more and better information on cost uncertainty. The tow methods converge to identical results as the number of convolved variables increases and approaches the range where the central limit theorem is valid

Towards Greater Harmonisation of Decommissioning Cost Estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Laraia, Michele; ); LaGuardia, Thomas S.

2010-01-01

The NEA Decommissioning Cost Estimation Group (DCEG), in collaboration with the IAEA Waste Technology Section and the EC Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, has recently studied cost estimation practices in 12 countries - Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. Its findings are to be published in an OECD/NEA report entitled Cost Estimation for Decommissioning: An International Overview of Cost Elements, Estimation Practices and Reporting Requirements. This booklet highlights the findings contained in the full report. (authors)

Preliminary cost estimating for the nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klumpar, I.V.; Soltz, K.M.

1985-01-01

The nuclear industry has higher costs for personnel, equipment, construction, and engineering than conventional industry, which means that cost estimation procedures may need adjustment. The authors account for the special technical and labor requirements of the nuclear industry in making adjustments to equipment and installation cost estimations. Using illustrative examples, they show that conventional methods of preliminary cost estimation are flexible enough for application to emerging industries if their cost structure is similar to that of the process industries. If not, modifications can provide enough engineering and cost data for a statistical analysis. 9 references, 14 figures, 4 tables

Cost estimating for large nuclear projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duggal, A.; Hunt, M.

2004-01-01

In today's market, the generation of electricity is a very competitive business, which is constantly under the watchful eye of the media and public. Nuclear power faces a lot of competition from other sources such as hydro, coal and gas. Controlling costs, monitoring costs, feedback, industry knowledge and up to date cost estimating tools are essential for a nuclear company to compete on a long term basis. This paper reviews the terminology and estimating principles used for the construction of new nuclear plants, lifetime operating costs, and the costs associated with refurbishment work. (author)

Software Cost-Estimation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Tausworthe, R. C.

1985-01-01

Software Cost Estimation Model SOFTCOST provides automated resource and schedule model for software development. Combines several cost models found in open literature into one comprehensive set of algorithms. Compensates for nearly fifty implementation factors relative to size of task, inherited baseline, organizational and system environment and difficulty of task.

Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lukey, M.E.; Prasad, C.; Toothman, D.A.; Kaplan, N.

1999-07-01

Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

Procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lukey, M E; Prasad, C; Toothman, D A; Kaplan, N

1999-07-01

Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use permanent total enclosures (PTEs). By definition, an enclosure which meets the US Environmental Protection Agency's five-point criteria is a PTE and has a capture efficiency of 100%. Since costs play an important role in regulatory development, in selection of control equipment, and in control technology evaluations for permitting purposes, EPA has developed a Control Cost Manual for estimating costs of various items of control equipment. EPA's Manual does not contain any methodology for estimating PTE costs. In order to assist environmental regulators and potential users of PTEs, a methodology for estimating PTE costs was developed under contract with EPA, by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. (PES) and is the subject of this paper. The methodology for estimating PTE costs follows the approach used for other control devices in the Manual. It includes procedures for sizing various components of a PTE and for estimating capital as well as annual costs. It contains verification procedures for demonstrating compliance with EPA's five-point criteria. In addition, procedures are included to determine compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Meeting these standards is an important factor in properly designing PTEs. The methodology is encoded in Microsoft Exel spreadsheets to facilitate cost estimation and PTE verification. Examples are given throughout the methodology development and in the spreadsheets to illustrate the PTE design, verification, and cost estimation procedures.

28 CFR 100.16 - Cost estimate submission.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

..., quantity, and cost. (ii) Direct labor. Provide a time-phased (e.g., monthly, quarterly) breakdown of labor... estimates. (iii) Allocable direct costs. Indicate how allocable costs are computed and applied, including... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Cost estimate submission. 100.16 Section...

Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

2003-01-01

Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

COST ESTIMATING RELATIONSHIPS IN ONSHORE DRILLING PROJECTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ricardo de Melo e Silva Accioly

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Cost estimating relationships (CERs are very important tools in the planning phases of an upstream project. CERs are, in general, multiple regression models developed to estimate the cost of a particular item or scope of a project. They are based in historical data that should pass through a normalization process before fitting a model. In the early phases they are the primary tool for cost estimating. In later phases they are usually used as an estimation validation tool and sometimes for benchmarking purposes. As in any other modeling methodology there are number of important steps to build a model. In this paper the process of building a CER to estimate drilling cost of onshore wells will be addressed.

Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ball, J.R.

1986-04-01

This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided.

Handbook for quick cost estimates. A method for developing quick approximate estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ball, J.R.

1986-04-01

This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for Cost Estimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided

Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

1994-03-01

This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs

Assuring Software Cost Estimates: Is it an Oxymoron?

Science.gov (United States)

Hihn, Jarius; Tregre, Grant

2013-01-01

The software industry repeatedly observes cost growth of well over 100% even after decades of cost estimation research and well-known best practices, so "What's the problem?" In this paper we will provide an overview of the current state oj software cost estimation best practice. We then explore whether applying some of the methods used in software assurance might improve the quality of software cost estimates. This paper especially focuses on issues associated with model calibration, estimate review, and the development and documentation of estimates as part alan integrated plan.

Estimated generic prices of cancer medicines deemed cost-ineffective in England: a cost estimation analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Andrew; Redd, Christopher; Gotham, Dzintars; Erbacher, Isabelle; Meldrum, Jonathan; Harada, Ryo

2017-01-20

The aim of this study was to estimate lowest possible treatment costs for four novel cancer drugs, hypothesising that generic manufacturing could significantly reduce treatment costs. This research was carried out in a non-clinical research setting using secondary data. There were no human participants in the study. Four drugs were selected for the study: bortezomib, dasatinib, everolimus and gefitinib. These medications were selected according to their clinical importance, novel pharmaceutical actions and the availability of generic price data. Target costs for treatment were to be generated for each indication for each treatment. The primary outcome measure was the target cost according to a production cost calculation algorithm. The secondary outcome measure was the target cost as the lowest available generic price; this was necessary where export data were not available to generate an estimate from our cost calculation algorithm. Other outcomes included patent expiry dates and total eligible treatment populations. Target prices were £411 per cycle for bortezomib, £9 per month for dasatinib, £852 per month for everolimus and £10 per month for gefitinib. Compared with current list prices in England, these target prices would represent reductions of 74-99.6%. Patent expiry dates were bortezomib 2014-22, dasatinib 2020-26, everolimus 2019-25 and gefitinib 2017. The total global eligible treatment population in 1 year is 769 736. Our findings demonstrate that affordable drug treatment costs are possible for novel cancer drugs, suggesting that new therapeutic options can be made available to patients and doctors worldwide. Assessing treatment cost estimations alongside cost-effectiveness evaluations is an important area of future research. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Collider Scaling and Cost Estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palmer, R.B.

1986-01-01

This paper deals with collider cost and scaling. The main points of the discussion are the following ones: 1) scaling laws and cost estimation: accelerating gradient requirements, total stored RF energy considerations, peak power consideration, average power consumption; 2) cost optimization; 3) Bremsstrahlung considerations; 4) Focusing optics: conventional, laser focusing or super disruption. 13 refs

Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benjamin, Serge; Descures, Sylvain; Du Pasquier, Louis; Francois, Patrice; Buonarotti, Stefano; Mariotti, Giovanni; Tarakonov, Jurij; Daniska, Vladimir; Bergh, Niklas; Carroll, Simon; AaSTRoeM, Annika; Cato, Anna; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Rodriguez, Jose; Laird, Alastair; Ridpath, Andy; La Guardia, Thomas; O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Weber, Inge; )

2017-01-01

The cost estimation process of decommissioning nuclear facilities has continued to evolve in recent years, with a general trend towards demonstrating greater levels of detail in the estimate and more explicit consideration of uncertainties, the latter of which may have an impact on decommissioning project costs. The 2012 report on the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) of Nuclear Installations, a joint recommendation by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the European Commission, proposes a standardised structure of cost items for decommissioning projects that can be used either directly for the production of cost estimates or for mapping of cost items for benchmarking purposes. The ISDC, however, provides only limited guidance on the treatment of uncertainty when preparing cost estimates. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities, prepared jointly by the NEA and IAEA, is intended to complement the ISDC, assisting cost estimators and reviewers in systematically addressing uncertainties in decommissioning cost estimates. Based on experiences gained in participating countries and projects, the report describes how uncertainty and risks can be analysed and incorporated in decommissioning cost estimates, while presenting the outcomes in a transparent manner

Costs of regulatory compliance: categories and estimating techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulte, S.C.; McDonald, C.L.; Wood, M.T.; Cole, R.M.; Hauschulz, K.

1978-10-01

Use of the categorization scheme and cost estimating approaches presented in this report can make cost estimates of regulation required compliance activities of value to policy makers. The report describes a uniform assessment framework that when used would assure that cost studies are generated on an equivalent basis. Such normalization would make comparisons of different compliance activity cost estimates more meaningful, thus enabling the relative merits of different regulatory options to be more effectively judged. The framework establishes uniform cost reporting accounts and cost estimating approaches for use in assessing the costs of complying with regulatory actions. The framework was specifically developed for use in a current study at Pacific Northwest Laboratory. However, use of the procedures for other applications is also appropriate

An Analytical Cost Estimation Procedure

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Jayachandran, Toke

1999-01-01

Analytical procedures that can be used to do a sensitivity analysis of a cost estimate, and to perform tradeoffs to identify input values that can reduce the total cost of a project, are described in the report...

Estimating boiling water reactor decommissioning costs. A user's manual for the BWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software: Draft report for comment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bierschbach, M.C.

1994-12-01

With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the U.S. Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and cost estimates. This user's manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning BWR power stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning

Advanced fuel cycle cost estimation model and its cost estimation results for three nuclear fuel cycles using a dynamic model in Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Sungki, E-mail: sgkim1@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Ko, Wonil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 1045 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Youn, Saerom; Gao, Ruxing [University of Science and Technology, 217 Gajungro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-350 (Korea, Republic of); Bang, Sungsig, E-mail: ssbang@kaist.ac.kr [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Department of Business and Technology Management, 291 Deahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)

2015-11-15

Highlights: • The nuclear fuel cycle cost using a new cost estimation model was analyzed. • The material flows of three nuclear fuel cycle options were calculated. • The generation cost of once-through was estimated to be 66.88 mills/kW h. • The generation cost of pyro-SFR recycling was estimated to be 78.06 mills/kW h. • The reactor cost was identified as the main cost driver of pyro-SFR recycling. - Abstract: The present study analyzes advanced nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation models such as the different discount rate model and its cost estimation results. To do so, an analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle cost of three options (direct disposal (once through), PWR–MOX (Mixed OXide fuel), and Pyro-SFR (Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor)) from the viewpoint of economic sense, focusing on the cost estimation model, was conducted using a dynamic model. From an analysis of the fuel cycle cost estimation results, it was found that some cost gap exists between the traditional same discount rate model and the advanced different discount rate model. However, this gap does not change the priority of the nuclear fuel cycle option from the viewpoint of economics. In addition, the fuel cycle costs of OT (Once-Through) and Pyro-SFR recycling based on the most likely value using a probabilistic cost estimation except for reactor costs were calculated to be 8.75 mills/kW h and 8.30 mills/kW h, respectively. Namely, the Pyro-SFR recycling option was more economical than the direct disposal option. However, if the reactor cost is considered, the economic sense in the generation cost between the two options (direct disposal vs. Pyro-SFR recycling) can be changed because of the high reactor cost of an SFR.

Parametric Cost Estimates for an International Competitive Edge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, L.T.; Hickey, M.

2006-01-01

This paper summarizes the progress to date by CH2M HILL and the UKAEA in development of a parametric modelling capability for estimating the costs of large nuclear decommissioning projects in the United Kingdom (UK) and Europe. The ability to successfully apply parametric cost estimating techniques will be a key factor to commercial success in the UK and European multi-billion dollar waste management, decommissioning and environmental restoration markets. The most useful parametric models will be those that incorporate individual components representing major elements of work: reactor decommissioning, fuel cycle facility decommissioning, waste management facility decommissioning and environmental restoration. Models must be sufficiently robust to estimate indirect costs and overheads, permit pricing analysis and adjustment, and accommodate the intricacies of international monetary exchange, currency fluctuations and contingency. The development of a parametric cost estimating capability is also a key component in building a forward estimating strategy. The forward estimating strategy will enable the preparation of accurate and cost-effective out-year estimates, even when work scope is poorly defined or as yet indeterminate. Preparation of cost estimates for work outside the organizations current sites, for which detailed measurement is not possible and historical cost data does not exist, will also be facilitated. (authors)

Estimation of optimal educational cost per medical student.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Eunbae B; Lee, Seunghee

2009-09-01

This study aims to estimate the optimal educational cost per medical student. A private medical college in Seoul was targeted by the study, and its 2006 learning environment and data from the 2003~2006 budget and settlement were carefully analyzed. Through interviews with 3 medical professors and 2 experts in the economics of education, the study attempted to establish the educational cost estimation model, which yields an empirically computed estimate of the optimal cost per student in medical college. The estimation model was based primarily upon the educational cost which consisted of direct educational costs (47.25%), support costs (36.44%), fixed asset purchases (11.18%) and costs for student affairs (5.14%). These results indicate that the optimal cost per student is approximately 20,367,000 won each semester; thus, training a doctor costs 162,936,000 won over 4 years. Consequently, we inferred that the tuition levels of a local medical college or professional medical graduate school cover one quarter or one-half of the per- student cost. The findings of this study do not necessarily imply an increase in medical college tuition; the estimation of the per-student cost for training to be a doctor is one matter, and the issue of who should bear this burden is another. For further study, we should consider the college type and its location for general application of the estimation method, in addition to living expenses and opportunity costs.

Residential outage cost estimation: Hong Kong

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, C.K.; Ho, T.; Shiu, A.; Cheng, Y.S.; Horowitz, I.; Wang, J.

2014-01-01

Hong Kong has almost perfect electricity reliability, the result of substantial investments ultimately financed by electricity consumers who may be willing to accept lower reliability in exchange for lower bills. But consumers with high outage costs are likely to reject the reliability reduction. Our ordered-logit regression analysis of the responses by 1876 households to a telephone survey conducted in June 2013 indicates that Hong Kong residents exhibit a statistically-significant preference for their existing service reliability and rate. Moreover, the average residential cost estimate for a 1-h outage is US$45 (HK$350), topping the estimates reported in 10 of the 11 studies published in the last 10 years. The policy implication is that absent additional compelling evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its service reliability. - Highlights: • Use a contingent valuation survey to obtain residential preferences for reliability. • Use an ordered logit analysis to estimate Hong Kong's residential outage costs. • Find high outage cost estimates that imply high reliability requirements. • Conclude that sans new evidence, Hong Kong should not reduce its reliability

Advanced Composite Air Frame Life Cycle Cost Estimating

Science.gov (United States)

2014-06-19

the ACCA based on the cost . This cost analysis takes into account the increased performance parameters of the new airframe structure. This research...20 Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft ( ACCA ) ..........................................................23 viii Cost Estimation...establishing the procurement strategies and life cycle cost (LCC) model cost estimations. The current LCC models do not take into account the potential cost

Establishing a cost model when estimating product cost in early design phases

OpenAIRE

Jeppsson, Johanna; Sjöberg, Jessica

2017-01-01

About 75% of the total product cost is determined in the early design phase, which means that the possibilities to affect costs are relatively small when the design phase is completed. For companies, it is therefore vital to conduct reliable cost estimates in the early design phase, when selecting between different design choices. When conducting a cost estimate there are many uncertainties. The aim with this study is therefore to explore how uncertainties regarding product cost can be consid...

Guidelines for estimating nuclear power plant decommissioning costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaGuardia, T.S.; Williams, D.H.

1989-01-01

The objectives of the study were: (1) To develop guidelines to facilitate estimating the cost of nuclear power plant decommissioning alternatives on a plant-specific basis and to facilitate comparing estimates made by others. The guidelines are expressed in a form that could be readily adapted by technical specialists from individual utilities or by other uses. (2) To enhance the industry's credibility with decision-makes at the state and federal levels during rate/regulatory processes involving decommissioning costs. This is accomplished by providing a detailed, systematic breakdown of how decommissioning cost estimates are prepared. (3) To increase the validity, realism, and accuracy of site-specific decommissioning cost estimates. This is accomplished by pulling together the experiences and practices of several nuclear utilities and consultants in conducting past decommissioning cost estimates

Cost analysis and estimating tools and techniques

CERN Document Server

Nussbaum, Daniel

1990-01-01

Changes in production processes reflect the technological advances permeat­ ing our products and services. U. S. industry is modernizing and automating. In parallel, direct labor is fading as the primary cost driver while engineering and technology related cost elements loom ever larger. Traditional, labor-based ap­ proaches to estimating costs are losing their relevance. Old methods require aug­ mentation with new estimating tools and techniques that capture the emerging environment. This volume represents one of many responses to this challenge by the cost analysis profession. The Institute of Cost Analysis (lCA) is dedicated to improving the effective­ ness of cost and price analysis and enhancing the professional competence of its members. We encourage and promote exchange of research findings and appli­ cations between the academic community and cost professionals in industry and government. The 1990 National Meeting in Los Angeles, jointly spo~sored by ICA and the National Estimating Society (NES),...

The cost of Alzheimer's disease in China and re-estimation of costs worldwide.

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Jianping; Wei, Cuibai; Chen, Shuoqi; Li, Fangyu; Tang, Yi; Qin, Wei; Zhao, Lina; Jin, Hongmei; Xu, Hui; Wang, Fen; Zhou, Aihong; Zuo, Xiumei; Wu, Liyong; Han, Ying; Han, Yue; Huang, Liyuan; Wang, Qi; Li, Dan; Chu, Changbiao; Shi, Lu; Gong, Min; Du, Yifeng; Zhang, Jiewen; Zhang, Junjian; Zhou, Chunkui; Lv, Jihui; Lv, Yang; Xie, Haiqun; Ji, Yong; Li, Fang; Yu, Enyan; Luo, Benyan; Wang, Yanjiang; Yang, Shanshan; Qu, Qiumin; Guo, Qihao; Liang, Furu; Zhang, Jintao; Tan, Lan; Shen, Lu; Zhang, Kunnan; Zhang, Jinbiao; Peng, Dantao; Tang, Muni; Lv, Peiyuan; Fang, Boyan; Chu, Lan; Jia, Longfei; Gauthier, Serge

2018-04-01

The socioeconomic costs of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in China and its impact on global economic burden remain uncertain. We collected data from 3098 patients with AD in 81 representative centers across China and estimated AD costs for individual patient and total patients in China in 2015. Based on this data, we re-estimated the worldwide costs of AD. The annual socioeconomic cost per patient was US $19,144.36, and total costs were US $167.74 billion in 2015. The annual total costs are predicted to reach US $507.49 billion in 2030 and US $1.89 trillion in 2050. Based on our results, the global estimates of costs for dementia were US $957.56 billion in 2015, and will be US $2.54 trillion in 2030, and US $9.12 trillion in 2050, much more than the predictions by the World Alzheimer Report 2015. China bears a heavy burden of AD costs, which greatly change the estimates of AD cost worldwide. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating the costs of human space exploration

Science.gov (United States)

Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.

1994-01-01

The plan for NASA's new exploration initiative has the following strategic themes: (1) incremental, logical evolutionary development; (2) economic viability; and (3) excellence in management. The cost estimation process is involved with all of these themes and they are completely dependent upon the engineering cost estimator for success. The purpose is to articulate the issues associated with beginning this major new government initiative, to show how NASA intends to resolve them, and finally to demonstrate the vital importance of a leadership role by the cost estimation community.

Handbook for cost estimating. A method for developing estimates of costs for generic actions for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ball, J.R.; Cohen, S.; Ziegler, E.Z.

1984-10-01

This document provides overall guidance to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required by the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines and to assist in the assignment of priorities in resolving generic safety issues. The Handbook presents an overall cost model that allows the cost analyst to develop a chronological series of activities needed to implement a specific regulatory requirement throughout all applicable commercial LWR power plants and to identify the significant cost elements for each activity. References to available cost data are provided along with rules of thumb and cost factors to assist in evaluating each cost element. A suitable code-of-accounts data base is presented to assist in organizing and aggregating costs. Rudimentary cost analysis methods are described to allow the analyst to produce a constant-dollar, lifetime cost for the requirement. A step-by-step example cost estimate is included to demonstrate the overall use of the Handbook

Nuclear shipping and waste disposal cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, C.R. II.

1977-11-01

Cost estimates for the shipping of spent fuel from the reactor, shipping of waste from the reprocessing plant, and disposal of reprocessing plant wastes have been made for five reactor types. The reactors considered are the light-water reactor (LWR), the mixed-oxide-fueled light-water reactor (MOX), the Canadian deuterium-uranium reactor (CANDU), the fast breeder reactor (FBR), and the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). In addition to the cost estimates, this report provides details on the bases and assumptions used to develop the cost estimates

Increased accuracy of cost-estimation using product configuration systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jeppe Bredahl; Hvam, Lars; Mortensen, Niels Henrik

This article describes an approach for utilizing Product Configuration Systems (PCS) for quantifying project costs in project-based companies. It presents a case study demonstrating a method of quantifying costs in a way that makes it possible to configure cost- and time estimates. Piecework costs......, material costs and sub-supplier costs are used as principle cost elements and linked to structural and process elements to facilitate configuration. The cost data are used by the PCS to generate fast and accurate cost-estimates, quotations, time estimates and cost summaries. The described cost...... quantification principles have been used in a Scandinavian SME (Small and Medium-sized Enterprise) since the 90’s, but have since 2011 been adopted to be used in a configuration system. A longitudinal case study was conducted to compare cost and time-estimation accuracy before and after implementation. We...

Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murray Christopher JL

2003-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973–2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals. The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs. In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

Cost Engineering Techniques and Their Applicability for Cost Estimation of Organic Rankine Cycle Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanne Lemmens

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The potential of organic Rankine cycle (ORC systems is acknowledged by both considerable research and development efforts and an increasing number of applications. Most research aims at improving ORC systems through technical performance optimization of various cycle architectures and working fluids. The assessment and optimization of technical feasibility is at the core of ORC development. Nonetheless, economic feasibility is often decisive when it comes down to considering practical instalments, and therefore an increasing number of publications include an estimate of the costs of the designed ORC system. Various methods are used to estimate ORC costs but the resulting values are rarely discussed with respect to accuracy and validity. The aim of this paper is to provide insight into the methods used to estimate these costs and open the discussion about the interpretation of these results. A review of cost engineering practices shows there has been a long tradition of industrial cost estimation. Several techniques have been developed, but the expected accuracy range of the best techniques used in research varies between 10% and 30%. The quality of the estimates could be improved by establishing up-to-date correlations for the ORC industry in particular. Secondly, the rapidly growing ORC cost literature is briefly reviewed. A graph summarizing the estimated ORC investment costs displays a pattern of decreasing costs for increasing power output. Knowledge on the actual costs of real ORC modules and projects remains scarce. Finally, the investment costs of a known heat recovery ORC system are discussed and the methodologies and accuracies of several approaches are demonstrated using this case as benchmark. The best results are obtained with factorial estimation techniques such as the module costing technique, but the accuracies may diverge by up to +30%. Development of correlations and multiplication factors for ORC technology in particular is

Development of computer program for estimating decommissioning cost - 59037

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hak-Soo; Park, Jong-Kil

2012-01-01

The programs for estimating the decommissioning cost have been developed for many different purposes and applications. The estimation of decommissioning cost is required a large amount of data such as unit cost factors, plant area and its inventory, waste treatment, etc. These make it difficult to use manual calculation or typical spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel. The cost estimation for eventual decommissioning of nuclear power plants is a prerequisite for safe, timely and cost-effective decommissioning. To estimate the decommissioning cost more accurately and systematically, KHNP, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. Ltd, developed a decommissioning cost estimating computer program called 'DeCAT-Pro', which is Decommission-ing Cost Assessment Tool - Professional. (Hereinafter called 'DeCAT') This program allows users to easily assess the decommissioning cost with various decommissioning options. Also, this program provides detailed reporting for decommissioning funding requirements as well as providing detail project schedules, cash-flow, staffing plan and levels, and waste volumes by waste classifications and types. KHNP is planning to implement functions for estimating the plant inventory using 3-D technology and for classifying the conditions of radwaste disposal and transportation automatically. (authors)

AX Tank Farm waste retrieval alternatives cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krieg, S.A.

1998-01-01

This report presents the estimated costs associated with retrieval of the wastes from the four tanks in AX Tank Farm. The engineering cost estimates developed for this report are based on previous cost data prepared for Project W-320 and the HTI 241-C-106 Heel Retrieval System. The costs presented in this report address only the retrieval of the wastes from the four AX Farm tanks. This includes costs for equipment procurement, fabrication, installation, and operation to retrieve the wastes. The costs to modify the existing plant equipment and systems to support the retrieval equipment are also included. The estimates do not include operational costs associated with pumping the waste out of the waste receiver tank (241-AY-102) between AX Farm retrieval campaigns or transportation, processing, and disposal of the retrieved waste

Probabilistic cost estimating of nuclear power plant construction projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finch, W.C.; Perry, L.W.; Postula, F.D.

1978-01-01

This paper shows how to identify and isolate cost accounts by developing probability trees down to component levels as justified by value and cost uncertainty. Examples are given of the procedure for assessing uncertainty in all areas contributing to cost: design, factory equipment pricing, and field labor and materials. The method of combining these individual uncertainties is presented so that the cost risk can be developed for components, systems and the total plant construction project. Formats which enable management to use the probabilistic cost estimate information for business planning and risk control are illustrated. Topics considered include code estimate performance, cost allocation, uncertainty encoding, probabilistic cost distributions, and interpretation. Effective cost control of nuclear power plant construction projects requires insight into areas of greatest cost uncertainty and a knowledge of the factors which can cause costs to vary from the single value estimates. It is concluded that probabilistic cost estimating can provide the necessary assessment of uncertainties both as to the cause and the consequences

Cost Estimating Cases: Educational Tools for Cost Analysts

Science.gov (United States)

1993-09-01

only appropriate documentation should be provided. In other words, students should not submit all of the documentation possible using ACEIT , only that...case was their lack of understanding of the ACEIT software used to conduct the estimate. Specifically, many students misinterpreted the cost...estimating relationships (CERs) embedded in the 49 software. Additionally, few of the students were able to properly organize the ACEIT documentation output

State-Level Estimates of Cancer-Related Absenteeism Costs

Science.gov (United States)

Tangka, Florence K.; Trogdon, Justin G.; Nwaise, Isaac; Ekwueme, Donatus U.; Guy, Gery P.; Orenstein, Diane

2016-01-01

Background Cancer is one of the top five most costly diseases in the United States and leads to substantial work loss. Nevertheless, limited state-level estimates of cancer absenteeism costs have been published. Methods In analyses of data from the 2004–2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the 2004 National Nursing Home Survey, the U.S. Census Bureau for 2008, and the 2009 Current Population Survey, we used regression modeling to estimate annual state-level absenteeism costs attributable to cancer from 2004 to 2008. Results We estimated that the state-level median number of days of absenteeism per year among employed cancer patients was 6.1 days and that annual state-level cancer absenteeism costs ranged from $14.9 million to $915.9 million (median = $115.9 million) across states in 2010 dollars. Absenteeism costs are approximately 6.5% of the costs of premature cancer mortality. Conclusions The results from this study suggest that lost productivity attributable to cancer is a substantial cost to employees and employers and contributes to estimates of the overall impact of cancer in a state population. PMID:23969498

48 CFR 1852.216-74 - Estimated cost and fixed fee.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... and Clauses 1852.216-74 Estimated cost and fixed fee. As prescribed in 1816.307-70(b), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Fixed Fee (DEC 1991) The estimated cost of this contract is ______ exclusive of the fixed fee of ______. The total estimated cost and fixed fee is ______. (End of clause) [62...

Cost of Capital Estimation for Highway Concessionaires in Chile

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristian Vergara-Novoa

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present the cost of capital estimation for highway concessionaires in Chile. We estimated the cost of equity and the cost of debt and determined the capital structure for each one of twenty-four concessionaires that operate highways. We based our estimations on the developments of Sharpe (1964, Modigliani and Miller (1958, and Maquieira (2009, which were also compared with the Brusov et al. (2015 developments. We collected stock prices for different highway concessionaires around the world from Google Finance and Reuters’ websites in order to determine the Beta of equity using a representative company. After that, we estimated the cost of equity considering Hamada (1969 and a Capital Asset Pricing Model. Then, we estimated the cost of capital using the cost of debt and the capital structure of Chile’s highway concessionaires. With all above, we were able to determine the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC for highway concessions which ranges from 5.49 to 6.62%.

Cost-estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R.

1993-01-01

Various advanced power plant concepts are currently under development. These include several advanced light water reactors as well as the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor and the advanced liquid-metal reactor. One measure-of the attractiveness of a new concept is cost. Invariably, the cost of a new type of power plant will be compared with other alternative forms of electric generation. In order to make reasonable comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules and assumptions must be applied when developing cost estimates. This paper describes the cost-estimate guidelines developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to be used in developing cost estimates for the advanced nuclear reactors and how these guidelines relate to the DOE cost verification process

Power plant cost estimates put to the test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowley, J.H.

1978-01-01

The growth in standards for nuclear applications and the impact of these codes and standards on the cost of nuclear power plants is described. The preparation of cost estimates and reasons for apparent discrepancies are discussed. Consistent estimates of nuclear power plant costs have been prepared in the USA for over a decade. They show that the difference in capital costs between nuclear and coal fired plants is narrowing and that when total generating costs are calculated nuclear power is substantially cheaper. (UK)

Aircraft bi-level life cycle cost estimation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhao, X.; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Curan, R.

2015-01-01

n an integrated aircraft design and analysis practice, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is essential for decision making. The LCC of an aircraft is ordinarily partially estimated by emphasizing a specific cost type. However, an overview of the LCC including design and development cost, production cost,

Estimating costs in the economic evaluation of medical technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Luce, B R; Elixhauser, A

1990-01-01

The complexities and nuances of evaluating the costs associated with providing medical technologies are often underestimated by analysts engaged in economic evaluations. This article describes the theoretical underpinnings of cost estimation, emphasizing the importance of accounting for opportunity costs and marginal costs. The various types of costs that should be considered in an analysis are described; a listing of specific cost elements may provide a helpful guide to analysis. The process of identifying and estimating costs is detailed, and practical recommendations for handling the challenges of cost estimation are provided. The roles of sensitivity analysis and discounting are characterized, as are determinants of the types of costs to include in an analysis. Finally, common problems facing the analyst are enumerated with suggestions for managing these problems.

Cost estimates for nuclear power in the UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harris, Grant; Heptonstall, Phil; Gross, Robert; Handley, David

2013-01-01

Current UK Government support for nuclear power has in part been informed by cost estimates that suggest that electricity from new nuclear power stations will be competitive with alternative low carbon generation options. The evidence and analysis presented in this paper suggests that the capital cost estimates for nuclear power that are being used to inform these projections rely on costs escalating over the pre-construction and construction phase of the new build programme at a level significantly below those that have been experienced by past US and European programmes. This paper applies observed construction time and cost escalation rates to the published estimates of capital costs for new nuclear plant in the UK and calculates the potential impact on levelised cost per unit of electricity produced. The results suggest that levelised cost may turn out to be significantly higher than expected which in turn has important implications for policy, both in general terms of the potential costs to consumers and more specifically for negotiations around the level of policy support and contractual arrangements offered to individual projects through the proposed contract for difference strike price. -- Highlights: •Nuclear power projects costs can rise substantially during the construction period. •Pre-construction and construction time can be much longer than anticipated. •Adjusting estimates for observed experience increases levelised costs significantly. •Higher costs suggest that more policy support than envisaged may be required

Fuel Cell System for Transportation -- 2005 Cost Estimate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wheeler, D.

2006-10-01

Independent review report of the methodology used by TIAX to estimate the cost of producing PEM fuel cells using 2005 cell stack technology. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program Manager asked the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to commission an independent review of the 2005 TIAX cost analysis for fuel cell production. The NREL Systems Integrator is responsible for conducting independent reviews of progress toward meeting the DOE Hydrogen Program (the Program) technical targets. An important technical target of the Program is the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell cost in terms of dollars per kilowatt ($/kW). The Program's Multi-Year Program Research, Development, and Demonstration Plan established $125/kW as the 2005 technical target. Over the last several years, the Program has contracted with TIAX, LLC (TIAX) to produce estimates of the high volume cost of PEM fuel cell production for transportation use. Since no manufacturer is yet producing PEM fuel cells in the quantities needed for an initial hydrogen-based transportation economy, these estimates are necessary for DOE to gauge progress toward meeting its targets. For a PEM fuel cell system configuration developed by Argonne National Laboratory, TIAX estimated the total cost to be $108/kW, based on assumptions of 500,000 units per year produced with 2005 cell stack technology, vertical integration of cell stack manufacturing, and balance-of-plant (BOP) components purchased from a supplier network. Furthermore, TIAX conducted a Monte Carlo analysis by varying ten key parameters over a wide range of values and estimated with 98% certainty that the mean PEM fuel cell system cost would be below DOE's 2005 target of $125/kW. NREL commissioned DJW TECHNOLOGY, LLC to form an Independent Review Team (the Team) of industry fuel cell experts and to evaluate the cost estimation process and the results reported by TIAX. The results of

Development of a simple estimation tool for LMFBR construction cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshida, Kazuo; Kinoshita, Izumi

1999-01-01

A simple tool for estimating the construction costs of liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactors (LMFBRs), 'Simple Cost' was developed in this study. Simple Cost is based on a new estimation formula that can reduce the amount of design data required to estimate construction costs. Consequently, Simple cost can be used to estimate the construction costs of innovative LMFBR concepts for which detailed design has not been carried out. The results of test calculation show that Simple Cost provides cost estimations equivalent to those obtained with conventional methods within the range of plant power from 325 to 1500 MWe. Sensitivity analyses for typical design parameters were conducted using Simple Cost. The effects of four major parameters - reactor vessel diameter, core outlet temperature, sodium handling area and number of secondary loops - on the construction costs of LMFBRs were evaluated quantitatively. The results show that the reduction of sodium handling area is particularly effective in reducing construction costs. (author)

Calculating the Unit Cost Factors for Decommissioning Cost Estimation of the Nuclear Research Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Kwan Seong; Lee, Dong Gyu; Jung, Chong Hun; Lee, Kune Woo

2006-01-01

The estimated decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor is calculated by applying a unit cost factor-based engineering cost calculation method on which classification of decommissioning works fitted with the features and specifications of decommissioning objects and establishment of composition factors are based. Decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor is composed of labor cost, equipment and materials cost. Labor cost of decommissioning costs in decommissioning works are calculated on the basis of working time consumed in decommissioning objects. In this paper, the unit cost factors and work difficulty factors which are needed to calculate the labor cost in estimating decommissioning cost of nuclear research reactor are derived and figured out.

Estimating and understanding DOE waste management costs'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, J.S.; Sherick, M.J.

1995-01-01

This paper examines costs associated with cleaning up the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) nuclear facilities, with particular emphasis on the waste management program. Life-cycle waste management costs have been compiled and reported in the DOE Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR). Waste management costs are a critical issue for DOE because of the current budget constraints. The DOE sites are struggling to accomplish their environmental management objectives given funding scenarios that are well below anticipated waste management costs. Through the BEMR process, DOE has compiled complex-wide cleanup cost estimates and has begun analysis of these costs with respect to alternative waste management scenarios and policy strategies. From this analysis, DOE is attempting to identify the major cost drivers and prioritize environmental management activities to achieve maximum utilization of existing funding. This paper provides an overview of the methodology DOE has used to estimate and analyze some waste management costs, including the key data requirements and uncertainties

An Overview Of Tool For Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferries, S.R.; Klink, K.L.; Ostapkowicz, B.

2012-01-01

Tools and techniques that provide improved performance and reduced costs are important to government programs, particularly in current times. An opportunity for improvement was identified for preparation of cost estimates used to support the evaluation of response action alternatives. As a result, CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company has developed Tool for Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE). TRACE is a multi-page Microsoft Excel(reg s ign) workbook developed to introduce efficiencies into the timely and consistent production of cost estimates for response action alternatives. This tool combines costs derived from extensive site-specific runs of commercially available remediation cost models with site-specific and estimator-researched and derived costs, providing the best estimating sources available. TRACE also provides for common quantity and key parameter links across multiple alternatives, maximizing ease of updating estimates and performing sensitivity analyses, and ensuring consistency.

78 FR 61227 - Public Assistance Cost Estimating Format for Large Projects

Science.gov (United States)

2013-10-03

... equipment. The base cost (construction costs) plus nonconstruction costs equal the total eligible cost... included the estimated base cost plus the estimated nonconstruction costs. Under the traditional method... total cost of completing the project. This ``forward- pricing'' methodology provides an estimate of the...

Support to LANL: Cost estimation. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

This report summarizes the activities and progress by ICF Kaiser Engineers conducted on behalf of Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) for the US Department of Energy, Office of Waste Management (EM-33) in the area of improving methods for Cost Estimation. This work was conducted between October 1, 1992 and September 30, 1993. ICF Kaiser Engineers supported LANL in providing the Office of Waste Management with planning and document preparation services for a Cost and Schedule Estimating Guide (Guide). The intent of the Guide was to use Activity-Based Cost (ABC) estimation as a basic method in preparing cost estimates for DOE planning and budgeting documents, including Activity Data Sheets (ADSs), which form the basis for the Five Year Plan document. Prior to the initiation of the present contract with LANL, ICF Kaiser Engineers was tasked to initiate planning efforts directed toward a Guide. This work, accomplished from June to September, 1992, included visits to eight DOE field offices and consultation with DOE Headquarters staff to determine the need for a Guide, the desired contents of a Guide, and the types of ABC estimation methods and documentation requirements that would be compatible with current or potential practices and expertise in existence at DOE field offices and their contractors

The Practice of Cost Estimation for Decommissioning of Nuclear Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davidova, Ivana; Desecures, Sylvain; Lexow, Thomas; Buonarroti, Stefano; Marini, Giuseppe; Pescatore, Claudio; Rehak, Ivan; Weber, Inge; ); Daniska, Vladimir; Linan, Jorge Borque; Caroll, Simon; Hedberg, Bjoern; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Laguardia, Thomas S.; Ridpath, Andy

2015-01-01

Decommissioning of both commercial and R and D nuclear facilities is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, and the largest of such industrial decommissioning projects could command considerable budgets. Several approaches are currently being used for decommissioning cost estimations, with an international culture developing in the field. The present cost estimation practice guide was prepared in order to offer international actors specific guidance in preparing quality cost and schedule estimates to support detailed budgeting for the preparation of decommissioning plans, for the securing of funds and for decommissioning implementation. This guide is based on current practices and standards in a number of NEA member countries and aims to help consolidate the practice and process of decommissioning cost estimation so as to make it more widely understood. It offers a useful reference for the practitioner and for training programmes. The remainder of report is divided into the following chapters: - Chapter 2 covers the purpose and nature of decommissioning cost estimates, approaches to cost estimation and the major elements of a cost estimate. - Chapter 3 examines the development of the integrated schedule of the activity-dependent work scope and the determination of the project critical path. - Chapter 4 describes the attributes of a quality assurance programme applicable to cost estimation and the use and cautions of benchmarking the estimate from other estimates or actual costs. - Chapter 5 describes the pyramidal structure of the report, and the scope and content that should be included in the cost study report to ensure consistency and transparency in the estimate underpinnings. - Chapter 6 provides some observations, conclusions and recommendations on the use of this guide

IDC reengineering Phase 2 & 3 US industry standard cost estimate summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, James M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Huelskamp, Robert M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, using a commercial software cost estimation tool calibrated to US industry performance parameters. This is not a cost estimate for Sandia to perform the project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Foreman, Veronica L.; Le Moigne, Jacqueline; de Weck, Oliver

2016-01-01

Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the limitations of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-theart in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority shortcomings within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities

Project cost estimation techniques used by most emerging building ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Keywords: Cost estimation, estimation methods, emerging contractors, tender. Dr Solly Matshonisa .... historical cost data (data from cost accounting records and/ ..... emerging contractors in tendering. Table 13: Use of project risk management versus responsibility: expected. Internal document analysis. Checklist analysis.

48 CFR 1852.216-85 - Estimated cost and award fee.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... and Clauses 1852.216-85 Estimated cost and award fee. As prescribed in 1816.406-70(e), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Award Fee (SEP 1993) The estimated cost of this contract is $___. The... cost, base fee, and maximum award fee are $___. (End of clause) Alternate I (SEP 1993). As prescribed...

Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, C.R. II.

1986-07-01

To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies

Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, C.R. II.

1987-07-01

To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies

Radium removal processes capital and operating cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, F.J.

1979-09-01

An estimate of the fixed capital and operating costs for two alternative processes for the removal of dissolved Ra-226 from uranium mill effluent in Elliot Lake, Ontario is presented. Process 1 consists of barium-radium coprecipitation followed by coagulation, flocculation and sedimentation. Process 2 consists of barium-radium coprecipitation followed by gravity media filtration, sand filter backwashing and sedimentation. Cost estimates were prepared for 18 different plant configurations designed to treat 1000 and 4000 imperial gallons per minute (ig/m) of effluent, 24 hrs per day, 7 days per week and 365 days per year with several equipment options. The estimated fixed capital costs for plants equipped with gravity filters were less than those equipped with circular clarifiers. The capital costs ranged from $552,000 with a flow rate of 1000 ig/m to $2,578,000 with a flow rate of 4000 ig/m. Estimated annual operating costs, based on a plant life of 10 years, ranged from $298,000 with a flow rate of 1000 ig/m to $1,061,000 with a flow rate of 4000 ig/m

MONITORED GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY LIFE CYCLE COST ESTIMATE ASSUMPTIONS DOCUMENT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

R.E. Sweeney

2001-01-01

The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost (LCC) estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA) , License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

Monitored Geologic Repository Life Cycle Cost Estimate Assumptions Document

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sweeney, R.

2000-01-01

The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA), License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR cost estimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance

Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II.

1993-05-01

Several advanced power plant concepts are currently under development. These include the Modular High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors, the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor and the Advanced Light Water Reactors. One measure of the attractiveness of a new concept is its cost. Invariably, the cost of a new type of power plant will be compared with other alternative forms of electrical generation. This report provides a common starting point, whereby the cost estimates for the various power plants to be considered are developed with common assumptions and ground rules. Comparisons can then be made on a consistent basis. This is the second update of these cost estimate guidelines. Changes have been made to make the guidelines more current (January 1, 1992) and in response to suggestions made as a result of the use of the previous report. The principal changes are that the reference site has been changed from a generic Northeast (Middletown) site to a more central site (EPRI's East/West Central site) and that reference bulk commodity prices and labor productivity rates have been added. This report is designed to provide a framework for the preparation and reporting of costs. The cost estimates will consist of the overnight construction cost, the total plant capital cost, the operation and maintenance costs, the fuel costs, decommissioning costs and the power production or busbar generation cost

Computerized cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base for fusion devices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, W.R.; Rothe, K.E.

1985-01-01

Component design parameters (weight, surface area, etc.) and cost factors are input and direct and indirect costs are calculated. The cost data base file derived from actual cost experience within the fusion community and refined to be compatible with the spreadsheet costing approach is a catalog of cost coefficients, algorithms, and component costs arranged into data modules corresponding to specific components and/or subsystems. Each data module contains engineering, equipment, and installation labor cost data for different configurations and types of the specific component or subsystem. This paper describes the assumptions, definitions, methodology, and architecture incorporated in the development of the cost estimation spreadsheet and cost data base, along with the type of input required and the output format

Contingency Cost estimation for Research reactor Decommissioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin, Hyung Gon; Hong, Yun Jeong

2016-01-01

There are many types of cost items in decommissioning cost estimation, however, contingencies are for unforeseen elements of cost within the defined project scope. Regulatory body wants to reasonable quantification for this issue. Many countries have adopted the breakdown of activity dependent and period-dependent costs to structure their estimates. Period-dependent costs could be broken down into defined time frames to reduce overall uncertainties. Several countries apply this notion by having different contingency factors for different phases of the project. This study is a compilation of contingency cost of research reactor and for each country. Simulation techniques using TRIM, MATLAB, and PSpice can be useful tools for designing detector channels. Thus far TRIM, MATLAB and PSpice have been used to calculate the detector current output pulse for SiC semiconductor detectors and to model the pulses that propagate through potential detector channels. This model is useful for optimizing the detector and the resolution for application to neutron monitoring in the Generation IV power reactors

Contingency Cost estimation for Research reactor Decommissioning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jin, Hyung Gon; Hong, Yun Jeong [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

There are many types of cost items in decommissioning cost estimation, however, contingencies are for unforeseen elements of cost within the defined project scope. Regulatory body wants to reasonable quantification for this issue. Many countries have adopted the breakdown of activity dependent and period-dependent costs to structure their estimates. Period-dependent costs could be broken down into defined time frames to reduce overall uncertainties. Several countries apply this notion by having different contingency factors for different phases of the project. This study is a compilation of contingency cost of research reactor and for each country. Simulation techniques using TRIM, MATLAB, and PSpice can be useful tools for designing detector channels. Thus far TRIM, MATLAB and PSpice have been used to calculate the detector current output pulse for SiC semiconductor detectors and to model the pulses that propagate through potential detector channels. This model is useful for optimizing the detector and the resolution for application to neutron monitoring in the Generation IV power reactors.

Cost estimating relationships for nuclear power plant operationa and maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowers, H.I.; Fuller, L.C.; Myers, M.L.

1987-11-01

Revised cost estimating relationships for 1987 are presented for estimating annual nonfuel operation and maintenance (O and M) costs for light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants, which update guidelines published previously in 1982. The purpose of these cost estimating relationships is for use in long range planning and evaluations of the economics of nuclear energy for electric power generation. A listing of a computer program, LWROM, implementing the cost estimating relationships and written in advanced BASIC for IBM personal computers, is included

Cost estimation for decommissioning: a review of current practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Sullivan, P.; Pescatore, C.

2009-01-01

It is now common practice for decommissioning plans and associated cost estimates to be prepared for all nuclear installations. Specific requirements are generally set out in regulations that have their basis in national legislation. These estimates are important for ensuring that the necessary funds are being collected to cover the actual costs of decommissioning the facility. The long time horizon for both amassing and disbursing these funds is a particular concern for national authorities. It is thus important to maintain a realistic estimate of the liabilities involved and to confirm the adequacy of the provisions to discharge them over time. Estimates of decommissioning costs have been performed and published by many organisations for many different purposes and applications. The results often vary because of differences in basic assumptions such as the choice of the decommissioning strategy (immediate vs. deferred), the availability of waste management pathways, the assumed end states of installations, the detailed definition of cost items, technical uncertainties, unforeseen events, the evolution of regulation and requirements. Many of these differences may be unavoidable since a reasonable degree of reliability and accuracy can only be achieved by developing decommissioning cost estimates on a case-by-case, site-specific basis. Moreover, even if considerable efforts are made to obtain reliable estimates, unforeseen events may cause estimates to go wrong. The issue of how to deal with uncertainties is therefore an important one, leading in turn to the need for risk management in terms of making adequate funding provisions. In March 2008, a questionnaire was circulated among the organisations participating in the NEA Decommissioning and Cost Estimation Group (DCEG). Information was collected on legal requirements and the responsibilities of the main parties concerned with the preparation and oversight of cost estimates, the main cost elements and associated

Valuing productivity costs in a changing macroeconomic environment: the estimation of colorectal cancer productivity costs using the friction cost approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanly, Paul; Koopmanschap, Marc; Sharp, Linda

2016-06-01

The friction cost approach (FCA) has been proposed as an alternative to the human capital approach for productivity cost valuation. However, FCA estimates are context dependent and influenced by extant macroeconomic conditions. We applied the FCA to estimate colorectal cancer labor productivity costs and assessed the impact of a changing macroeconomic environment on these estimates. Data from colorectal cancer survivors (n = 159) derived from a postal survey undertaken in Ireland March 2010 to January 2011 were combined with national wage data, population-level survival data, and occupation-specific friction periods to calculate temporary and permanent disability, and premature mortality costs using the FCA. The effects of changing labor market conditions between 2006 and 2013 on the friction period were modeled in scenario analyses. Costs were valued in 2008 euros. In the base-case, the total FCA per-person productivity cost for incident colorectal cancer patients of working age at diagnosis was €8543. In scenario 1 (a 2.2 % increase in unemployment), the fall in the friction period caused total productivity costs to decrease by up to 18 % compared to base-case estimates. In scenario 2 (a 9.2 % increase in unemployment), the largest decrease in productivity cost was up to 65 %. Adjusting for the vacancy rate reduced the effect of unemployment on the cost results. The friction period used in calculating labor productivity costs greatly affects the derived estimates; this friction period requires reassessment following changes in labor market conditions. The influence of changes in macroeconomic conditions on FCA-derived cost estimates may be substantial.

ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-02-01

This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill

ICPP calcined solids storage facility closure study. Volume II: Cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle cost estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-02-01

This document contains Volume II of the Closure Study for the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant Calcined Solids Storage Facility. This volume contains draft information on cost estimates, planning schedules, yearly cost flowcharts, and life-cycle costs for the four options described in Volume I: (1) Risk-Based Clean Closure; NRC Class C fill, (2) Risk-Based Clean Closure; Clean fill, (3) Closure to landfill Standards; NRC Class C fill, and (4) Closure to Landfill Standards; Clean fill.

Estimated Annual Maintenance Costs for Educational Facilities in Eritrea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vagnby, Bo Hellisen

Global estimated annual costs for undertaking basic maintenance of all educational facilities in Eritrea.......Global estimated annual costs for undertaking basic maintenance of all educational facilities in Eritrea....

Estimating the opportunity costs of bed-days.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandmann, Frank G; Robotham, Julie V; Deeny, Sarah R; Edmunds, W John; Jit, Mark

2018-03-01

Opportunity costs of bed-days are fundamental to understanding the value of healthcare systems. They greatly influence burden of disease estimations and economic evaluations involving stays in healthcare facilities. However, different estimation techniques employ assumptions that differ crucially in whether to consider the value of the second-best alternative use forgone, of any available alternative use, or the value of the actually chosen alternative. Informed by economic theory, this paper provides a taxonomic framework of methodologies for estimating the opportunity costs of resources. This taxonomy is then applied to bed-days by classifying existing approaches accordingly. We highlight differences in valuation between approaches and the perspective adopted, and we use our framework to appraise the assumptions and biases underlying the standard approaches that have been widely adopted mostly unquestioned in the past, such as the conventional use of reference costs and administrative accounting data. Drawing on these findings, we present a novel approach for estimating the opportunity costs of bed-days in terms of health forgone for the second-best patient, but expressed monetarily. This alternative approach effectively re-connects to the concept of choice and explicitly considers net benefits. It is broadly applicable across settings and for other resources besides bed-days. © 2017 The Authors Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cost estimate guidelines for advanced nuclear power technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delene, J.G.; Hudson, C.R. II.

1990-03-01

To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing cost estimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing cost estimates for advanced nuclear power technologies. 10 refs., 8 figs., 32 tabs

Estimation of 18FDG doses's cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamza, Fatma; Amouri, W.; Jardak, I.; Kallel, F.; Charfeddine, S.; Guermazi, F.

2013-01-01

The cyclotron facility, essentially for medical use, is far from being a simple establishment of a dedicated device to accelerate particles producing a beta plus emitter radioelement. The cyclotron site encompasses more over all necessary equipments for the production and the quality control of considered radiotracer that 18 FDG is just one example. This facility is subject to strict standards in terms of radiopharmaceutical production, radiation level, pressure level and airflow resulting in the production of a drug submitted to the MA (Marketing Authorization). These multiple factors directly influence the final cost of the dose that remains to be reachable by the patient. The aim of this work is to estimate the cost of a dose of 18 FDG to ensure financial viability of the project while accessible to the patient. The cost of the facility will entail the following: buildings and utilities, equipment and operational cost. This calculation is possible only if we define in advance the type of cyclotron, which is bound to the market needs in particular the number of PET facilities, the number of scans per day and the radioactive decay of radioelement. Our study represents a simulation that considers some hypothesis. We assumed that the cyclotron is installed in Sousse and that the PET facilities number (positon emission tomography) is 6 in which 4 are located 2 hours away. For a PET scan, the average dose per patient is about 350 MBq (5 MBq/kg) and the exam duration is about 45 minutes. Each center performs 10 tests per day. In terms of fees, we considered device and building's cost, facility amortization, consumables (target, marking accessories), maintenance, remuneration expense and the annual electricity consumption. All our calculations have been reported to the number of working days per year. The estimates were made outside the customs duties and technical assistance that may last up to 2 years. Requirements and needs were estimated at 5.4 curies per day. For

Estimating Maintenance Cost for Web Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion IVAN

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The current paper tackles the issue of determining a method for estimating maintenance costs for web applications. The current state of research in the field of web application maintenance is summarized and leading theories and results are highlighted. The cost of web maintenance is determined by the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks. Web maintenance tasks are categorized into content maintenance and technical maintenance. Research is centered on analyzing technical maintenance tasks. The research hypothesis is formulated on the assumption that the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks can be assessed based on the web application’s user interaction level, complexity and content update effort. Data regarding the costs of maintenance tasks is collected from 24 maintenance projects implemented by a web development company that tackles a wide area of web applications. Homogeneity and diversity of collected data is submitted for debate by presenting a sample of the data and depicting the overall size and comprehensive nature of the entire dataset. A set of metrics dedicated to estimating maintenance costs in web applications is defined based on conclusions formulated by analyzing the collected data and the theories and practices dominating the current state of research. Metrics are validated with regards to the initial research hypothesis. Research hypothesis are validated and conclusions are formulated on the topic of estimating the maintenance cost of web applications. The limits of the research process which represented the basis for the current paper are enunciated. Future research topics are submitted for debate.

Estimating the economic cost of disability in Ireland

OpenAIRE

Cullinan, John; Gannon, Brenda; Lyons, Seán

2008-01-01

Addressing the extra economic costs of disability seems a logical step towards alleviating elements of social exclusion for people with disabilities. This paper estimates the economic cost of disability in Ireland in terms of the additional spending needs that arise due to disability. It defines and estimates models of the private costs borne by families with individuals who have a disability in Ireland when compared to the wider population, both in general and by severity of illness. Our mod...

A Probabilistic Cost Estimation Model for Unexploded Ordnance Removal

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Poppe, Peter

1999-01-01

...) contaminated sites that the services must decontaminate. Existing models for estimating the cost of UXO removal often require a high level of expertise and provide only a point estimate for the costs...

40 CFR 261.142 - Cost estimate.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... hazardous waste, and the potential cost of closing the facility as a treatment, storage, and disposal... facility. (3) The cost estimate may not incorporate any salvage value that may be realized with the sale of... no later than 30 days after a change in a facility's operating plan or design that would increase the...

16 CFR 305.5 - Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and energy efficiency rating, and of water use rate. 305.5... RULE CONCERNING DISCLOSURES REGARDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND WATER USE OF CERTAIN HOME APPLIANCES AND... § 305.5 Determinations of estimated annual energy consumption, estimated annual operating cost, and...

Project Cost Estimation for Planning

Science.gov (United States)

2010-02-26

For Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT), there are far too many projects that ultimately cost much more than initially planned. Because project nominations are linked to estimates of future funding and the analysis of system needs, the inaccur...

Estimating productivity costs using the friction cost approach in practice: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Kigozi, Jesse; Jowett, Sue; Lewis, Martyn; Barton, Pelham; Coast, Joanna

2016-01-01

The choice of the most appropriate approach to valuing productivity loss has received much debate in the literature. The friction cost approach has been proposed as a more appropriate alternative to the human capital approach when valuing productivity loss, although its application remains limited. This study reviews application of the friction cost approach in health economic studies and examines how its use varies in practice across different country settings. A systematic review was performed to identify economic evaluation studies that have estimated productivity costs using the friction cost approach and published in English from 1996 to 2013. A standard template was developed and used to extract information from studies meeting the inclusion criteria. The search yielded 46 studies from 12 countries. Of these, 28 were from the Netherlands. Thirty-five studies reported the length of friction period used, with only 16 stating explicitly the source of the friction period. Nine studies reported the elasticity correction factor used. The reported friction cost approach methods used to derive productivity costs varied in quality across studies from different countries. Few health economic studies have estimated productivity costs using the friction cost approach. The estimation and reporting of productivity costs using this method appears to differ in quality by country. The review reveals gaps and lack of clarity in reporting of methods for friction cost evaluation. Generating reporting guidelines and country-specific parameters for the friction cost approach is recommended if increased application and accuracy of the method is to be realized.

Method for developing cost estimates for generic regulatory requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-01-01

The NRC has established a practice of performing regulatory analyses, reflecting costs as well as benefits, of proposed new or revised generic requirements. A method had been developed to assist the NRC in preparing the types of cost estimates required for this purpose and for assigning priorities in the resolution of generic safety issues. The cost of a generic requirement is defined as the net present value of total lifetime cost incurred by the public, industry, and government in implementing the requirement for all affected plants. The method described here is for commercial light-water-reactor power plants. Estimating the cost for a generic requirement involves several steps: (1) identifying the activities that must be carried out to fully implement the requirement, (2) defining the work packages associated with the major activities, (3) identifying the individual elements of cost for each work package, (4) estimating the magnitude of each cost element, (5) aggregating individual plant costs over the plant lifetime, and (6) aggregating all plant costs and generic costs to produce a total, national, present value of lifetime cost for the requirement. The method developed addresses all six steps. In this paper, we discuss on the first three

Cost estimate of electricity produced by TPV

Science.gov (United States)

Palfinger, Günther; Bitnar, Bernd; Durisch, Wilhelm; Mayor, Jean-Claude; Grützmacher, Detlev; Gobrecht, Jens

2003-05-01

A crucial parameter for the market penetration of TPV is its electricity production cost. In this work a detailed cost estimate is performed for a Si photocell based TPV system, which was developed for electrically self-powered operation of a domestic heating system. The results are compared to a rough estimate of cost of electricity for a projected GaSb based system. For the calculation of the price of electricity, a lifetime of 20 years, an interest rate of 4.25% per year and maintenance costs of 1% of the investment are presumed. To determine the production cost of TPV systems with a power of 12-20 kW, the costs of the TPV components and 100 EUR kW-1el,peak for assembly and miscellaneous were estimated. Alternatively, the system cost for the GaSb system was derived from the cost of the photocells and from the assumption that they account for 35% of the total system cost. The calculation was done for four different TPV scenarios which include a Si based prototype system with existing technology (etasys = 1.0%), leading to 3000 EUR kW-1el,peak, an optimized Si based system using conventional, available technology (etasys = 1.5%), leading to 900 EUR kW-1el,peak, a further improved system with future technology (etasys = 5%), leading to 340 EUR kW-1el,peak and a GaSb based system (etasys = 12.3% with recuperator), leading to 1900 EUR kW-1el,peak. Thus, prices of electricity from 6 to 25 EURcents kWh-1el (including gas of about 3.5 EURcents kWh-1) were calculated and compared with those of fuel cells (31 EURcents kWh-1) and gas engines (23 EURcents kWh-1).

Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry: New estimates of R&D costs.

Science.gov (United States)

DiMasi, Joseph A; Grabowski, Henry G; Hansen, Ronald W

2016-05-01

The research and development costs of 106 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug and biologics development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound is $1395 million (2013 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 10.5% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of $2558 million (2013 dollars). When compared to the results of the previous study in this series, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 8.5% above general price inflation. Adding an estimate of post-approval R&D costs increases the cost estimate to $2870 million (2013 dollars). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating pharmacy level prescription drug acquisition costs for third-party reimbursement.

Science.gov (United States)

Kreling, D H; Kirk, K W

1986-07-01

Accurate payment for the acquisition costs of drug products dispensed is an important consideration in a third-party prescription drug program. Two alternative methods of estimating these costs among pharmacies were derived and compared. First, pharmacists were surveyed to determine the purchase discounts offered to them by wholesalers. A 10.00% modal and 11.35% mean discount resulted for 73 responding pharmacists. Second, cost-plus percents derived from gross profit margins of wholesalers were calculated and applied to wholesaler product costs to estimate pharmacy level acquisition costs. Cost-plus percents derived from National Median and Southwestern Region wholesaler figures were 9.27% and 10.10%, respectively. A comparison showed the two methods of estimating acquisition costs would result in similar acquisition cost estimates. Adopting a cost-plus estimating approach is recommended because it avoids potential pricing manipulations by wholesalers and manufacturers that would negate improvements in drug product reimbursement accuracy.

Estimating the cost of disposal for Canada's nuclear fuel waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ates, Y.

1996-07-01

Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL) prepared an Environmental Impact Statement and nine supporting Primary Reference Documents on the concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste. This report summarizes the basis of the cost estimate which is provided in the primary reference document on engineering for a disposal facility. The scope of the cost estimate is explained by describing the key features of the disposal facility design, by noting the major assumptions made in preparing the estimates, and by listing the included and excluded cost components. An activity-based project planning and control method is explained whereby the project schedule, costs, and personnel requirements are interlinked; forming an integrated perspective on the total project life cycle. The summary and distribution of costs in each project stage by major facility or activity are presented. The results of studies which reviewed the overall cost estimate are also described. These studies indicate that, within the scope, the estimate is reasonable and compares well with similar international studies. (author)

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles unique cost estimating requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Malone, P.; Apgar, H.; Stukes, S.; Sterk, S.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), also referred to as drones, are aerial platforms that fly without a human pilot onboard. UAVs are controlled autonomously by a computer in the vehicle or under the remote control of a pilot stationed at a fixed ground location. There are a wide variety of drone shapes, sizes, configurations, complexities, and characteristics. Use of these devices by the Department of Defense (DoD), NASA, civil and commercial organizations continues to grow. UAVs are commonly used for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR). They are also use for combat operations, and civil applications, such as firefighting, non-military security work, surveillance of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines, power lines and country borders). UAVs are often preferred for missions that require sustained persistence (over 4 hours in duration), or are “ too dangerous, dull or dirty” for manned aircraft. Moreover, they can offer significant acquisition and operations cost savings over traditional manned aircraft. Because of these unique characteristics and missions, UAV estimates require some unique estimating methods. This paper describes a framework for estimating UAV systems total ownership cost including hardware components, software design, and operations. The challenge of collecting data, testing the sensitivities of cost drivers, and creating cost estimating relationships (CERs) for each key work breakdown structure (WBS) element is discussed. The autonomous operation of UAVs is especially challenging from a software perspective.

Oil and gas pipeline construction cost analysis and developing regression models for cost estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Thaduri, Ravi Kiran

In this study, cost data for 180 pipelines and 136 compressor stations have been analyzed. On the basis of the distribution analysis, regression models have been developed. Material, Labor, ROW and miscellaneous costs make up the total cost of a pipeline construction. The pipelines are analyzed based on different pipeline lengths, diameter, location, pipeline volume and year of completion. In a pipeline construction, labor costs dominate the total costs with a share of about 40%. Multiple non-linear regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of pipelines for various cross-sectional areas, lengths and locations. The Compressor stations are analyzed based on the capacity, year of completion and location. Unlike the pipeline costs, material costs dominate the total costs in the construction of compressor station, with an average share of about 50.6%. Land costs have very little influence on the total costs. Similar regression models are developed to estimate the component costs of compressor station for various capacities and locations.

Cost Estimation for Research Reactor Decommissioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

One of the IAEA's statutory objectives is to 'seek to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world'. One way this objective is achieved is through the publication of a range of technical series. Two of these are the IAEA Nuclear Energy Series and the IAEA Safety Standards Series. According to Article III.A.6 of the IAEA Statute, the safety standards establish 'standards of safety for protection of health and minimization of danger to life and property.' The safety standards include the Safety Fundamentals, Safety Requirements and Safety Guides. These standards are written primarily in a regulatory style, and are binding on the IAEA for its own programmes. The principal users are the regulatory bodies in Member States and other national authorities. The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series comprises reports designed to encourage and assist R and D on, and application of, nuclear energy for peaceful uses. This includes practical examples to be used by owners and operators of utilities in Member States, implementing organizations, academia, and government officials, among others. This information is presented in guides, reports on technology status and advances, and best practices for peaceful uses of nuclear energy based on inputs from international experts. The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series complements the IAEA Safety Standards Series. The purpose of this publication is to develop a costing methodology and a software tool in order to support cost estimation for research reactor decommissioning. The costing methodology is intended for the preliminary cost estimation stages for research reactor decommissioning with limited inventory data and other input data available. Existing experience in decommissioning costing is considered. As the basis for the cost calculation structure, the costing model uses the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) that is recommended by the IAEA, the Organisation for

Social opportunity cost of capital: empirical estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Townsend, S.

1978-02-01

This report develops estimates of the social-opportunity cost of public capital. The private and social costs of capital are found to diverge primarily because of the effects of corporate and personal income taxes. Following Harberger, the social-opportunity cost of capital is approximated by a weighted average of the returns to different classes of savers and investors where the weights are the flows of savings or investments in each class multiplied by the relevant elasticity. Estimates of these parameters are obtained and the social-opportunity cost of capital is determined to be in the range of 6.2 to 10.8%, depending upon the parameter values used. Uncertainty is found to affect the social-opportunity cost of capital in two ways. First, some allowance must be made for the chance of failure or at least of not realizing claims of a project's proponents. Second, a particular government project will change the expected variability of the returns to the government's entire portfolio of projects. In the absence of specific information about each project, the use of the economy-wide average default and risk adjustments is suggested. These are included in the empirical estimates reported. International capital markets make available private capital, the price of which is not distorted by the U.S. tax system. The inclusion of foreign sources slightly reduces the social-opportunity cost of capital. 21 references.

Estimating the mental health costs of racial discrimination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanuel Elias

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Racial discrimination is a pervasive social problem in several advanced countries such as the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Public health research also indicates a range of associations between exposure to racial discrimination and negative health, particularly, mental health including depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD. However, the direct negative health impact of racial discrimination has not been costed so far although economists have previously estimated indirect non-health related productivity costs. In this study, we estimate the burden of disease due to exposure to racial discrimination and measure the cost of this exposure. Methods Using prevalence surveys and data on the association of racial discrimination with health outcomes from a global meta-analysis, we apply a cost of illness method to measure the impact of racial discrimination. This estimate indicates the direct health cost attributable to racial discrimination and we convert the estimates to monetary values based on conventional parameters. Results Racial discrimination costs the Australian economy 235,452 in disability adjusted life years lost, equivalent to $37.9 billion per annum, roughly 3.02% of annual gross domestic product (GDP over 2001–11, indicating a sizeable loss for the economy. Conclusion Substantial cost is incurred due to increased prevalence of racial discrimination as a result of its association with negative health outcomes (e.g. depression, anxiety and PTSD. This implies that potentially significant cost savings can be made through measures that target racial discrimination. Our research contributes to the debate on the social impact of racial discrimination, with implications for policies and efforts addressing it.

Cost estimating Brayton and Stirling engines

Science.gov (United States)

Fortgang, H. R.

1980-01-01

Brayton and Stirling engines were analyzed for cost and selling price for production quantities ranging from 1000 to 400,000 units per year. Parts and components were subjected to indepth scrutiny to determine optimum manufacturing processes coupled with make or buy decisions on materials and small parts. Tooling and capital equipment costs were estimated for each detail and/or assembly. For low annual production volumes, the Brayton engine appears to have a lower cost and selling price than the Stirling Engine. As annual production quantities increase, the Stirling becomes a lower cost engine than the Brayton. Both engines could benefit cost wise if changes were made in materials, design and manufacturing process as annual production quantities increase.

Cost estimation and management over the life cycle of metallurgical ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study investigates whether all expected costs over the life cycle of metallurgical research projects are included in initial, normal and fi nal cost estimates, and whether these costs are managed throughout a project's life cycle since there is not enough emphasis on the accurate estimation of costs and their management ...

Cost Estimates and Investment Decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Emhjellen, Kjetil; Emhjellen Magne; Osmundsen, Petter

2001-08-01

When evaluating new investment projects, oil companies traditionally use the discounted cashflow method. This method requires expected cashflows in the numerator and a risk adjusted required rate of return in the denominator in order to calculate net present value. The capital expenditure (CAPEX) of a project is one of the major cashflows used to calculate net present value. Usually the CAPEX is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. In the oil industry and many other industries, it is common practice to report a CAPEX that is the estimated 50/50 (median) CAPEX instead of the estimated expected (expected value) CAPEX. In this article we demonstrate how the practice of using a 50/50 (median) CAPEX, when the cost distributions are asymmetric, causes project valuation errors and therefore may lead to wrong investment decisions with acceptance of projects that have negative net present values. (author)

48 CFR 1852.216-84 - Estimated cost and incentive fee.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... Provisions and Clauses 1852.216-84 Estimated cost and incentive fee. As prescribed in 1816.406-70(d), insert the following clause: Estimated Cost and Incentive Fee (OCT 1996) The target cost of this contract is $___. The target fee of this contract is $___. The total target cost and target fee as contemplated by the...

Estimating the Cost of Providing Foundational Public Health Services.

Science.gov (United States)

Mamaril, Cezar Brian C; Mays, Glen P; Branham, Douglas Keith; Bekemeier, Betty; Marlowe, Justin; Timsina, Lava

2017-12-28

To estimate the cost of resources required to implement a set of Foundational Public Health Services (FPHS) as recommended by the Institute of Medicine. A stochastic simulation model was used to generate probability distributions of input and output costs across 11 FPHS domains. We used an implementation attainment scale to estimate costs of fully implementing FPHS. We use data collected from a diverse cohort of 19 public health agencies located in three states that implemented the FPHS cost estimation methodology in their agencies during 2014-2015. The average agency incurred costs of $48 per capita implementing FPHS at their current attainment levels with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 16 percent. Achieving full FPHS implementation would require $82 per capita (CV=19 percent), indicating an estimated resource gap of $34 per capita. Substantial variation in costs exists across communities in resources currently devoted to implementing FPHS, with even larger variation in resources needed for full attainment. Reducing geographic inequities in FPHS may require novel financing mechanisms and delivery models that allow health agencies to have robust roles within the health system and realize a minimum package of public health services for the nation. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Comparing Methods for Estimating Direct Costs of Adverse Drug Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Gyllensten, Hanna; Jönsson, Anna K; Hakkarainen, Katja M; Svensson, Staffan; Hägg, Staffan; Rehnberg, Clas

2017-12-01

To estimate how direct health care costs resulting from adverse drug events (ADEs) and cost distribution are affected by methodological decisions regarding identification of ADEs, assigning relevant resource use to ADEs, and estimating costs for the assigned resources. ADEs were identified from medical records and diagnostic codes for a random sample of 4970 Swedish adults during a 3-month study period in 2008 and were assessed for causality. Results were compared for five cost evaluation methods, including different methods for identifying ADEs, assigning resource use to ADEs, and for estimating costs for the assigned resources (resource use method, proportion of registered cost method, unit cost method, diagnostic code method, and main diagnosis method). Different levels of causality for ADEs and ADEs' contribution to health care resource use were considered. Using the five methods, the maximum estimated overall direct health care costs resulting from ADEs ranged from Sk10,000 (Sk = Swedish krona; ~€1,500 in 2016 values) using the diagnostic code method to more than Sk3,000,000 (~€414,000) using the unit cost method in our study population. The most conservative definitions for ADEs' contribution to health care resource use and the causality of ADEs resulted in average costs per patient ranging from Sk0 using the diagnostic code method to Sk4066 (~€500) using the unit cost method. The estimated costs resulting from ADEs varied considerably depending on the methodological choices. The results indicate that costs for ADEs need to be identified through medical record review and by using detailed unit cost data. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating remediation costs for the Montclair radium superfund sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turner, M.J.

1995-01-01

The Montclair/West Orange and Glen Ridge Superfund Sites, located in Essex County, NJ, are contaminated to varying degrees with radioactive materials. The waste originated from radium processing facilities prevalent in the area during the early 1900s. The design for remediation of these sites is managed by Bechtel National, Inc. on behalf of the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Kansas City District, which administers the project through an interagency agreement with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Design efforts for the project began in 1990. A portion of the scope, which is the topic of this article, was preparing the remediation costs estimates. These estimates were to be prepared from the detailed design packages; the Corps of Engineers required that the estimates were prepared using the Micro Computer-Aided Cost Estimating System (MCACES). This article discusses the design methods used, provides an overview of MCACES, and discusses the structure and preparation of the cost estimate and its uses. However, the main focus of the article is the methods used to generate the required project-specific cost estimate format for this project. 6 figs

Venture Guidance Appraisal cost estimates for groundwater protection Environmental Impact Statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moyer, R.A.

1987-01-01

Cost estimates were prepared for closure options at criteria waste sites and alternatives for new disposal facilities for hazardous wastes, mixed wastes, low level radioactive wastes and slurry from liquid waste treatment facilities. Because these cost estimates will be used in the Groundwater Protection EIS, the goal was to develop ''enveloping'' costs, i.e., the alternative or option chosen for execution at a later date should cost no more than the estimate. This report summarizes scenarios for making detailed cost estimates. Also included are unit costs for disposition of potential excavations, for operational activities, and for groundwater monitoring and site maintenance after closure of the site. The cost numbers presented are intended for study purposes only and not for budgetary activities

Cost estimate of bovine tuberculosis to Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Tschopp, Rea; Hattendorf, Jan; Roth, Felix; Choudhury, Adnan Ali Khan; Choudhoury, Adnan; Shaw, Alexandra; Aseffa, Abraham; Zinsstag, Jakob

2013-01-01

While bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has been eliminated in some industrialized countries, it prevails worldwide, particularly in Africa. In Ethiopia, BTB is prevalent as numerous studies have shown its occurrence in livestock and in abattoirs but it has not been demonstrated in wildlife and only very few cases have been found in humans. The objective of this study is to estimate the cost of BTB to Ethiopia with the aim of informing Ethiopian policy on options for BTB control. BTB in livestock affects both animal productivity and herd demographic composition. The Livestock Development Planning System (LDPS2, FAO) was modified to allow for stochastic simulation of parameters. We performed an incremental cost of disease analysis, comparing livestock production with and without BTB. For the rural scenario we considered an endemically stable 4 % comparative intradermal test (CIDT) prevalence and for the urban scenario an endemically stable 32 % CIDT prevalence among cattle. The net present value of rural Ethiopian livestock products in 2005 is estimated at 65.7 billion (thousand million) Ethiopian Birr (95 % Confidence Interval (CI) 53.8-77.7 billion Birr), which is the equivalent of 7.5 billion US$ (95 %CI 6.1-8.9 billion US$) at a rate of 8.7 Birr per US$ in 2005. The cost of BTB ranges from 646 million Birr (75.2 million US$) in 2005 to 3.1 Billion Birr in 2011 (358 million US$) but is within the range of uncertainty of our estimate and can thus not be distinguished from zero. The cost of disease in the urban livestock production ranges from 5 to 42 million Birr (500,000-4.9 million US$) between 2005 and 2011 but is also within the range of uncertainty of our estimate. Our study shows no measurable loss in asset value or cost of disease due to BTB in rural and urban production systems in Ethiopia. This does not mean that there is not a real cost of disease, but the variability of the productivity parameters and prices are high and would require more precise estimates

An improved COCOMO software cost estimation model | Duke ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this paper, we discuss the methodologies adopted previously in software cost estimation using the COnstructive COst MOdels (COCOMOs). From our analysis, COCOMOs produce very high software development efforts, which eventually produce high software development costs. Consequently, we propose its extension, ...

Failing to Estimate the Costs of Offshoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller Larsen, Marcus

2016-01-01

This article investigates cost estimation errors in the context of offshoring. It is argued that an imprecise estimation of the costs related to implementing a firm activity in a foreign location has a negative impact on the process performance of that activity. Performance is deterred...... as operations are likely to be disrupted by managerial distraction and resource misallocation. It is also argued that this relationship is mitigated by the extent to which firms use modularity to coordinate the activity but worsened by the extent to which ongoing communication is used. The results, based...

Reducing Inventory System Costs by Using Robust Demand Estimators

OpenAIRE

Raymond A. Jacobs; Harvey M. Wagner

1989-01-01

Applications of inventory theory typically use historical data to estimate demand distribution parameters. Imprecise knowledge of the demand distribution adds to the usual replenishment costs associated with stochastic demands. Only limited research has been directed at the problem of choosing cost effective statistical procedures for estimating these parameters. Available theoretical findings on estimating the demand parameters for (s, S) inventory replenishment policies are limited by their...

The unit cost factors and calculation methods for decommissioning - Cost estimation of nuclear research facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwan-Seong Jeong; Dong-Gyu Lee; Chong-Hun Jung; Kune-Woo Lee

2007-01-01

Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: The uncertainties of decommissioning costs increase high due to several conditions. Decommissioning cost estimation depends on the complexity of nuclear installations, its site-specific physical and radiological inventories. Therefore, the decommissioning costs of nuclear research facilities must be estimated in accordance with the detailed sub-tasks and resources by the tasks of decommissioning activities. By selecting the classified activities and resources, costs are calculated by the items and then the total costs of all decommissioning activities are reshuffled to match with its usage and objectives. And the decommissioning cost of nuclear research facilities is calculated by applying a unit cost factor method on which classification of decommissioning works fitted with the features and specifications of decommissioning objects and establishment of composition factors are based. Decommissioning costs of nuclear research facilities are composed of labor cost, equipment and materials cost. Of these three categorical costs, the calculation of labor costs are very important because decommissioning activities mainly depend on labor force. Labor costs in decommissioning activities are calculated on the basis of working time consumed in decommissioning objects and works. The working times are figured out of unit cost factors and work difficulty factors. Finally, labor costs are figured out by using these factors as parameters of calculation. The accuracy of decommissioning cost estimation results is much higher compared to the real decommissioning works. (authors)

[Methodologies for estimating the indirect costs of traffic accidents].

Science.gov (United States)

Carozzi, Soledad; Elorza, María Eugenia; Moscoso, Nebel Silvana; Ripari, Nadia Vanina

2017-01-01

Traffic accidents generate multiple costs to society, including those associated with the loss of productivity. However, there is no consensus about the most appropriate methodology for estimating those costs. The aim of this study was to review methods for estimating indirect costs applied in crash cost studies. A thematic review of the literature was carried out between 1995 and 2012 in PubMed with the terms cost of illness, indirect cost, road traffic injuries, productivity loss. For the assessment of costs we used the the human capital method, on the basis of the wage-income lost during the time of treatment and recovery of patients and caregivers. In the case of premature death or total disability, the discount rate was applied to obtain the present value of lost future earnings. The computed years arose by subtracting to life expectancy at birth the average age of those affected who are not incorporated into the economically active life. The interest in minimizing the problem is reflected in the evolution of the implemented methodologies. We expect that this review is useful to estimate efficiently the real indirect costs of traffic accidents.

AES, Automated Construction Cost Estimation System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holder, D.A.

1995-01-01

A - Description of program or function: AES (Automated Estimating System) enters and updates the detailed cost, schedule, contingency, and escalation information contained in a typical construction or other project cost estimates. It combines this information to calculate both un-escalated and escalated and cash flow values for the project. These costs can be reported at varying levels of detail. AES differs from previous versions in at least the following ways: The schedule is entered at the WBS-Participant, Activity level - multiple activities can be assigned to each WBS-Participant combination; the spending curve is defined at the schedule activity level and a weighing factor is defined which determines percentage of cost for the WBS-Participant applied to the schedule activity; Schedule by days instead of Fiscal Year/Quarter; Sales Tax is applied at the Line Item Level- a sales tax codes is selected to indicate Material, Large Single Item, or Professional Services; a 'data filter' has been added to allow user to define data the report is to be generated for. B - Method of solution: Average Escalation Rate: The average escalation for a Bill of is calculated in three steps. 1. A table of quarterly escalation factors is calculated based on the base fiscal year and quarter of the project entered in the estimate record and the annual escalation rates entered in the Standard Value File. 2. The percentage distribution of costs by quarter for the Bill of Material is calculated based on the schedule entered and the curve type. 3. The percent in each fiscal year and quarter in the distribution is multiplied by the escalation factor for the fiscal year and quarter. The sum of these results is the average escalation rate for that Bill of Material. Schedule by curve: The allocation of costs to specific time periods is dependent on three inputs, starting schedule date, ending schedule date, and the percentage of costs allocated to each quarter. Contingency Analysis: The

Structural Estimation of Stock Market Participation Costs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khorunzhina, Natalia

2013-01-01

education programs can affect consumers' investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4–6% of labor...

Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

Science.gov (United States)

Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

1976-01-01

A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

Preliminary ITER cost and schedule estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

The cost, manpower requirements, and schedule estimates for the realization of the ITER tokamak have been studied during the Conceptual Design Activities, as a result of work by the ITER Management Committee. This work was completed during the January-March, 1990 joint work session, and is presented in this report. A possible schedule shows completion of the engineering design phase in 1995, with 180 professionals, at a cost of about $250M. The construction would be completed in 2004 with a rise in professional staff to 300, and a total cost of $4900M. The machine would be operable over an 18-year period, at an annual operating cost averaging $290M. 2 figs

A level playing field: Obtaining consistent cost estimates for advanced reactor designs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, C.R. II; Rohm, H.H.; Humphreys, J.R. Jr.

1987-01-01

Rules and guidelines for developing cost estimates are given which provide a means for presenting cost estimates for advanced concepts on a consistent and equitable basis. For advanced reactor designs, the scope of a cost estimate includes the plant capital cost, the operating and maintenance cost, the fuel cycle cost, and the cost of decommissioning. Each element is subdivided as is necessary to provide a common reporting format for all power plant concepts. The total generation cost is taken to be a suitable choice for a summary figure of merit. To test the application of the rules and guidelines as well as developing reference costs for current technologies, several different sized coal and pressurized water reactor plant cost estimates have been prepared

Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) Cost Estimation, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Innovation Laboratory, Inc., proposes to build a tool to estimate airline costs under TBO. This tool includes a cost model that explicitly reasons about traffic...

Time-driven activity-based costing to estimate cost of care at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Jordan A; Mistry, Bipin; Hardy, Stephen; Fracchia, Mary Shannon; Hersh, Cheryl; Wentland, Carissa; Vadakekalam, Joseph; Kaplan, Robert; Hartnick, Christopher J

2017-09-01

Providing high-value healthcare to patients is increasingly becoming an objective for providers including those at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. Measuring value has two components: 1) identify relevant health outcomes and 2) determine relevant treatment costs. Via their inherent structure, multidisciplinary care units consolidate care for complex patients. However, their potential impact on decreasing healthcare costs is less clear. The goal of this study was to estimate the potential cost savings of treating patients with laryngeal clefts at multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. Retrospective chart review. Time-driven activity-based costing was used to estimate the cost of care for patients with laryngeal cleft seen between 2008 and 2013 at the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary Pediatric Aerodigestive Center. Retrospective chart review was performed to identify clinic utilization by patients as well as patient diet outcomes after treatment. Patients were stratified into neurologically complex and neurologically noncomplex groups. The cost of care for patients requiring surgical intervention was five and three times as expensive of the cost of care for patients not requiring surgery for neurologically noncomplex and complex patients, respectively. Following treatment, 50% and 55% of complex and noncomplex patients returned to normal diet, whereas 83% and 87% of patients experienced improved diets, respectively. Additionally, multidisciplinary team-based care for children with laryngeal clefts potentially achieves 20% to 40% cost savings. These findings demonstrate how time-driven activity-based costing can be used to estimate and compare patient costs in multidisciplinary aerodigestive centers. 2c. Laryngoscope, 127:2152-2158, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

A new approach for product cost estimation using data envelopment analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adil Salam

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Cost estimation of new products has always been difficult as only few design, manufacturing and operational features will be known. In these situations, parametric or non-parametric methods are commonly used to estimate the cost of a product given the corresponding cost drivers. The parametric models use priori determined cost function where the parameters of the function are evaluated from historical data. Non-parametric methods, on the other hand, attempt to fit curves to the historic data without predetermined function. In both methods, it is assumed that the historic data used in the analysis is a true representation of the relation between the cost drivers and the corresponding costs. However, because of efficiency variations of the manufacturers and suppliers, changes in supplier selections, market fluctuations, and several other reasons, certain costs in the historic data may be too high whereas other costs may represent better deals for their corresponding cost drivers. Thus, it may be important to rank the historic data and identify benchmarks and estimate the target costs of the product based on these benchmarks. In this paper, a novel adaptation of cost drivers and cost data is introduced in order to use data envelopment analysis for the purpose of ranking cost data and identify benchmarks, and then estimate the target costs of a new product based on these benchmarks. An illustrative case study has been presented for the cost estimation of landing gears of an aircraft manufactured by an aerospace company located in Montreal, CANADA.

Cost analysis of small hydroelectric power plants components and preliminary estimation of global cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basta, C.; Olive, W.J.; Antunes, J.S.

1990-01-01

An analysis of cost for each components of Small Hydroelectric Power Plant, taking into account the real costs of these projects is shown. It also presents a global equation which allows a preliminary estimation of cost for each construction. (author)

Taking the Evolutionary Road to Developing an In-House Cost Estimate

Science.gov (United States)

Jacintho, David; Esker, Lind; Herman, Frank; Lavaque, Rodolfo; Regardie, Myma

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the process and some of the problems and challenges of developing an In-House Cost Estimate (IHCE). Using as an example the Space Network Ground Segment Sustainment (SGSS) project, the presentation reviews the phases for developing a Cost estimate within the project to estimate government and contractor project costs to support a budget request.

Using Intelligent Techniques in Construction Project Cost Estimation: 10-Year Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdelrahman Osman Elfaki

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Cost estimation is the most important preliminary process in any construction project. Therefore, construction cost estimation has the lion’s share of the research effort in construction management. In this paper, we have analysed and studied proposals for construction cost estimation for the last 10 years. To implement this survey, we have proposed and applied a methodology that consists of two parts. The first part concerns data collection, for which we have chosen special journals as sources for the surveyed proposals. The second part concerns the analysis of the proposals. To analyse each proposal, the following four questions have been set. Which intelligent technique is used? How have data been collected? How are the results validated? And which construction cost estimation factors have been used? From the results of this survey, two main contributions have been produced. The first contribution is the defining of the research gap in this area, which has not been fully covered by previous proposals of construction cost estimation. The second contribution of this survey is the proposal and highlighting of future directions for forthcoming proposals, aimed ultimately at finding the optimal construction cost estimation. Moreover, we consider the second part of our methodology as one of our contributions in this paper. This methodology has been proposed as a standard benchmark for construction cost estimation proposals.

The Acquisition Cost-Estimating Workforce. Census and Characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

Abbreviations AAC Air Armament Center ACAT acquisition category ACEIT Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools AF Air Force AFB Air Force Base AFCAA Air...3 3 4 Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools ( ACEIT ) 0 1 12 6 Tecolotea training 0 0 10 5 Other 3 13 24 18 No training 18 4 29 18 Total 100 100...other sources, including AFIT, ACEIT ,9 or the contracting agency that employed them. The remain- ing 29 percent reported having received no training

48 CFR 2452.216-70 - Estimated cost, base fee and award fee.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimated cost, base fee... Provisions and Clauses 2452.216-70 Estimated cost, base fee and award fee. As prescribed in 2416.406(e)(1), insert the following clause in all cost-plus-award-fee contracts: Estimated Cost, Base Fee and Award Fee...

Counting the cost: estimating the economic benefit of pedophile treatment programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Shanahan, M; Donato, R

2001-04-01

The principal objective of this paper is to identify the economic costs and benefits of pedophile treatment programs incorporating both the tangible and intangible cost of sexual abuse to victims. Cost estimates of cognitive behavioral therapy programs in Australian prisons are compared against the tangible and intangible costs to victims of being sexually abused. Estimates are prepared that take into account a number of problematic issues. These include the range of possible recidivism rates for treatment programs; the uncertainty surrounding the number of child sexual molestation offences committed by recidivists; and the methodological problems associated with estimating the intangible costs of sexual abuse on victims. Despite the variation in parameter estimates that impact on the cost-benefit analysis of pedophile treatment programs, it is found that potential range of economic costs from child sexual abuse are substantial and the economic benefits to be derived from appropriate and effective treatment programs are high. Based on a reasonable set of parameter estimates, in-prison, cognitive therapy treatment programs for pedophiles are likely to be of net benefit to society. Despite this, a critical area of future research must include further methodological developments in estimating the quantitative impact of child sexual abuse in the community.

Development of regional stump-to-mill logging cost estimators

Science.gov (United States)

Chris B. LeDoux; John E. Baumgras

1989-01-01

Planning logging operations requires estimating the logging costs for the sale or tract being harvested. Decisions need to be made on equipment selection and its application to terrain. In this paper a methodology is described that has been developed and implemented to solve the problem of accurately estimating logging costs by region. The methodology blends field time...

A generic tool for cost estimating in aircraft design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Castagne, S.; Curran, R.; Rothwell, A.; Price, M.; Benard, E.; Raghunathan, S.

2008-01-01

A methodology to estimate the cost implications of design decisions by integrating cost as a design parameter at an early design stage is presented. The model is developed on a hierarchical basis, the manufacturing cost of aircraft fuselage panels being analysed in this paper. The manufacturing cost

BIM – New rules of measurement ontology for construction cost estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F.H. Abanda

2017-04-01

Full Text Available For generations, the process of cost estimation has been manual, time-consuming and error-prone. Emerging Building Information Modelling (BIM can exploit standard measurement methods to automate cost estimation process and improve inaccuracies. Structuring standard measurement methods in an ontologically and machine readable format for a BIM software can greatly facilitate the process of improving inaccuracies in cost estimation. This study explores the development of an ontology based on New Rules of Measurement (NRM for cost estimation during the tendering stages. The methodology adopted is methontology, one of the most widely used ontology engineering methodologies. To ensure the ontology is fit for purpose, cost estimation experts are employed to check the semantics, descriptive logic-based reasoners are used to syntactically check the ontology and a leading 4D BIM modelling software is used on a case study building to test/validate the proposed ontology.

Thermal and nuclear power generation cost estimates using corporate financial statements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuo, Yuhji; Nagatomi, Yu; Murakami, Tomoko

2012-01-01

There are two generally accepted methods for estimating power generation costs: so-called 'model plant' method and the method using corporate financial statements. The method using corporate financial statements, though under some constraints, can provide useful information for comparing thermal and nuclear power generation costs. This study used this method for estimating thermal and nuclear power generation costs in Japan for the past five years, finding that the nuclear power generation cost remained stable at around 7 yen per kilowatt-hour (kWh) while the thermal power generation cost moved within a wide range of 9 to 12 yen/kWh in line with wild fluctuations in primary energy prices. The cost of nuclear power generation is expected to increase due to the enhancement of safety measures and accident damage compensation in the future, while there are reactor decommissioning, backend and many other costs that the financial statement-using approach cannot accurately estimate. In the future, efforts should be continued to comprehensively and accurately estimate total costs. (author)

Preliminary Cost Estimates for Nuclear Hydrogen Production: HTSE System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, K. J.; Lee, K. Y.; Lee, T. H.

2008-01-01

KAERI is now focusing on the research and development of the key technologies required for the design and realization of a nuclear hydrogen production system. As a preliminary study of cost estimates for nuclear hydrogen systems, the hydrogen production costs of the nuclear energy sources benchmarking GTMHR and PBMR are estimated in the necessary input data on a Korean specific basis. G4-ECONS was appropriately modified to calculate the cost for hydrogen production of HTSE (High Temperature Steam Electrolysis) process with VHTR (Very High Temperature nuclear Reactor) as a thermal energy source. The estimated costs presented in this paper show that hydrogen production by the VHTR could be competitive with current techniques of hydrogen production from fossil fuels if CO 2 capture and sequestration is required. Nuclear production of hydrogen would allow large-scale production of hydrogen at economic prices while avoiding the release of CO 2 . Nuclear production of hydrogen could thus become the enabling technology for the hydrogen economy. The major factors that would affect the cost of hydrogen were also discussed

The QUELCE Method: Using Change Drivers to Estimate Program Costs

Science.gov (United States)

2016-08-01

Analysis 4 2.4 Assign Conditional Probabilities 5 2.5 Apply Uncertainty to Cost Formula Inputs for Scenarios 5 2.6 Perform Monte Carlo Simulation to...Distribution Statement A: Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited 1 Introduction: The Cost Estimation Challenge Because large-scale programs... challenged [Bliss 2012]. Improvements in cost estimation that would make these assumptions more precise and reduce early lifecycle uncertainty can

Cost Estimates for the Decontamination and Decommissioning of Eight ORNL Buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hogan, M.

2006-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) contains a number of buildings that are antiquated and no longer used. These buildings historically were used for the production of atomic weapons and often remain contaminated with radioactive materials. Certain costs and risks are associated with the long-term stewardship of the buildings. One way to reduce these liabilities is to eliminate the buildings that are no longer in use and are not expected to be used in the future. Some of these buildings at ORNL are located in an area known as 'Isotope Circle'. From this area, eight buildings that are expected to be decontaminated and decommissioned (D and D) in the next five to ten years were chosen to have cost estimates completed. The specific facilities are Buildings 3030, 3031, 3118, 3032, 3033, 3033 Annex, 3034, and 3093. There are many challenges for estimating the costs to D and D buildings potentially contaminated with radionuclides. Each building is unique, has various types and levels of contamination, and (as in this case) often lacks up-to-date information. Because of these limitations, order-of- magnitude cost estimates for each of the eight ORNL buildings were completed using parametric cost modeling software known as RACER TM (Remedial Action Cost Engineering and Requirements System). This type of cost estimate is useful for screening technical concepts and is used for budgetary planning. For the eight buildings evaluated in this study, the total cost to D and D was estimated to be nearly $6 M. This value includes the direct cost of approximately $3.5 M to complete D and D and $2.5 M in cost markups. Also, assuming the actual project does not begin until the year 2010, this total cost is escalated to almost $6.7 M, which accounts for expected inflation. Although the cost estimates in this study were expected to have a wide range in accuracy, there are various factors that could impact these estimates in a negative or positive fashion

Estimating two indirect logging costs caused by accelerated erosion.

Science.gov (United States)

Glen O. Klock

1976-01-01

In forest areas where high soil erosion potential exists, a comparative yarding cost estimate, including the indirect costs determined by methods proposed here, shows that the total cost of using "advanced" logging methods may be less than that of "traditional" systems.

A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

2018-02-01

Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

Methodology used in IRSN nuclear accident cost estimates in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

This report describes the methodology used by IRSN to estimate the cost of potential nuclear accidents in France. It concerns possible accidents involving pressurized water reactors leading to radioactive releases in the environment. These accidents have been grouped in two accident families called: severe accidents and major accidents. Two model scenarios have been selected to represent each of these families. The report discusses the general methodology of nuclear accident cost estimation. The crucial point is that all cost should be considered: if not, the cost is underestimated which can lead to negative consequences for the value attributed to safety and for crisis preparation. As a result, the overall cost comprises many components: the most well-known is offsite radiological costs, but there are many others. The proposed estimates have thus required using a diversity of methods which are described in this report. Figures are presented at the end of this report. Among other things, they show that purely radiological costs only represent a non-dominant part of foreseeable economic consequences. (authors)

Estimating Drilling Cost and Duration Using Copulas Dependencies Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Al Kindi

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Estimation of drilling budget and duration is a high-level challenge for oil and gas industry. This is due to the many uncertain activities in the drilling procedure such as material prices, overhead cost, inflation, oil prices, well type, and depth of drilling. Therefore, it is essential to consider all these uncertain variables and the nature of relationships between them. This eventually leads into the minimization of the level of uncertainty and yet makes a "good" estimation points for budget and duration given the well type. In this paper, the copula probability theory is used in order to model the dependencies between cost/duration and MRI (mechanical risk index. The MRI is a mathematical computation, which relates various drilling factors such as: water depth, measured depth, true vertical depth in addition to mud weight and horizontal displacement. In general, the value of MRI is utilized as an input for the drilling cost and duration estimations. Therefore, modeling the uncertain dependencies between MRI and both cost and duration using copulas is important. The cost and duration estimates for each well were extracted from the copula dependency model where research study simulate over 10,000 scenarios. These new estimates were later compared to the actual data in order to validate the performance of the procedure. Most of the wells show moderate - weak relationship of MRI dependence, which means that the variation in these wells can be related to MRI but to the extent that it is not the primary source.

Supplemental report on cost estimates'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have completed an analysis of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Fiscal Year (FY) 1993 budget request for its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (ERWM) program. The results were presented to an interagency review group (IAG) of senior-Administration officials for their consideration in the budget process. This analysis included evaluations of the underlying legal requirements and cost estimates on which the ERWM budget request was based. The major conclusions are contained in a separate report entitled, ''Interagency Review of the Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program.'' This Corps supplemental report provides greater detail on the cost analysis

Trends in nuclear power plant capital-investment cost estimates - 1976 to 1982

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowers, H.I.; Fuller, L.C.; Myers, M.L.

1983-09-01

This report describes trends in power plant capital investment cost estimates over the time period from 1976 to 1982. A review of economic parameters, inflation and escalation rates and cost of money, and a review of cost-size scaling relationships are included. Reference cost estimates are provided for light-water reactor and coal-fired electric power plants based on safety and environmental regulations in effect in January 1982. The sensitivity of the reference cost estimates to numerous economic parameters is analyzed

Estimating the cost of epilepsy in Europe: a review with economic modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Pugliatti, Maura; Beghi, Ettore; Forsgren, Lars; Ekman, Mattias; Sobocki, Patrik

2007-12-01

Based on available epidemiologic, health economic, and international population statistics literature, the cost of epilepsy in Europe was estimated. Europe was defined as the 25 European Union member countries, Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland. Guidelines for epidemiological studies on epilepsy were used for a case definition. A bottom-up prevalence-based cost-of-illness approach, the societal perspective for including the cost items, and the human capital approach as valuation principle for indirect costs were used. The cost estimates were based on selected studies with common methodology and valuation principles. The estimated prevalence of epilepsy in Europe in 2004 was 4.3-7.8 per 1,000. The estimated total cost of the disease in Europe was euro15.5 billion in 2004, indirect cost being the single most dominant cost category (euro8.6 billion). Direct health care costs were euro2.8 billion, outpatient care comprising the largest part (euro1.3 billion). Direct nonmedical cost was euro4.2 billion. That of antiepileptic drugs was euro400 million. The total cost per case was euro2,000-11,500 and the estimated cost per European inhabitant was euro33. Epilepsy is a relevant socioeconomic burden at individual, family, health services, and societal level in Europe. The greater proportion of such burden is outside the formal health care sector, antiepileptic drugs representing a smaller proportion. Lack of economic data from several European countries and other methodological limitations make this report an initial estimate of the cost of epilepsy in Europe. Prospective incidence cost-of-illness studies from well-defined populations and common methodology are encouraged.

Methods for developing useful estimates of the costs associated with birth defects.

Science.gov (United States)

Case, Amy P; Canfield, Mark A

2009-11-01

Cost estimates for birth defects are useful to policy makers in deciding the best use of resources to prevent these conditions. Much of the effort in this area has focused on spina bifida, in part because cost savings can be estimated from folic acid-preventable cases. However, comprehensive cost-of-illness estimates for this condition may be too outdated, too general, or not applicable to individual states' environments. Using the live birth prevalence for spina bifida in Texas, we applied recent spina bifida cost estimates to approximate total lifetime medical and other costs for an average live birth cohort of spina bifida cases in Texas. In addition, we queried various government programs that provide services for persons with spina bifida to provide program-specific annual costs for this condition. Applying a recently published average lifetime medical cost of $635,000 per case of spina bifida to the average annual birth cohort of 120 Texas cases, an estimated $76 million in direct and indirect medical and other costs will be incurred in Texas over the life span of that cohort. Examples of estimated medical costs for one year are $5 million for infants using actual employer-paid insurance claims data and $6 million combined for children in two public sector programs. Stakeholders and state policy makers may look to state birth defects registries for useful cost data. Although comprehensive state-specific figures are not available, applying prevalence data to existing estimates and obtaining actual claims and program expenditures may help close this information gap.

Case Study to Apply Work Difficulty Factors to Decommissioning Cost Estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, Taesik; Jung, Hyejin; Oh, Jaeyoung; Kim, Younggook [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

This article is prepared as a guideline regarding how to apply the work difficult factor (WDF) when it comes to the estimates of the decommissioning costs. Although several cases of the decommissioning cost estimates have been made for a few commercial nuclear power plants, the different technical, site-specific economic assumptions used make it difficult to interpret those cost estimates and compare them with that of Kori-1. In addition, it is clear that we are supposed to experience difficulties being created in the process of the Kori-1 and the virtual inaccessibility to the limited areas at the pre-decommissioning stage. Estimating decommissioning costs is one of the most crucial processes since it encompasses all the spectrum of decommissioning activities from the planning to the last evaluation on whether the decommissioning has successfully been proceeded from the safety and economic perspectives. Here I suggested the activity dependent costs is only related to WDFs of the incumbent plant planning or undergone to be decommissioned since as a matter of fact, estimating WDFs is the core process to articulately scrutinize the practical costs to apply to Kori-1 project.

Fuzzy/Neural Software Estimates Costs of Rocket-Engine Tests

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas, Freddie; Bourgeois, Edit Kaminsky

2005-01-01

The Highly Accurate Cost Estimating Model (HACEM) is a software system for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center. HACEM is built on a foundation of adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) a hybrid software concept that combines the adaptive capabilities of neural networks with the ease of development and additional benefits of fuzzy-logic-based systems. In ANFIS, fuzzy inference systems are trained by use of neural networks. HACEM includes selectable subsystems that utilize various numbers and types of inputs, various numbers of fuzzy membership functions, and various input-preprocessing techniques. The inputs to HACEM are parameters of specific tests or series of tests. These parameters include test type (component or engine test), number and duration of tests, and thrust level(s) (in the case of engine tests). The ANFIS in HACEM are trained by use of sets of these parameters, along with costs of past tests. Thereafter, the user feeds HACEM a simple input text file that contains the parameters of a planned test or series of tests, the user selects the desired HACEM subsystem, and the subsystem processes the parameters into an estimate of cost(s).

Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification: Independent Review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruth, M.

2011-10-01

This independent review is the conclusion arrived at from data collection, document reviews, interviews and deliberation from December 2010 through April 2011 and the technical potential of Hydrogen Production Cost Estimate Using Biomass Gasification. The Panel reviewed the current H2A case (Version 2.12, Case 01D) for hydrogen production via biomass gasification and identified four principal components of hydrogen levelized cost: CapEx; feedstock costs; project financing structure; efficiency/hydrogen yield. The panel reexamined the assumptions around these components and arrived at new estimates and approaches that better reflect the current technology and business environments.

On Cost Estimate for Decommissioning of one Isotope Central

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marek Vasko et al

2010-08-01

The main scope of this study has been to calculate the future cost for decommission and dismantling the Isotope central at the Studsvik site using the OMEGA CODE. Detailed empirical information is used in the study for 'bench-marking' purposes, in such cases when there is a need to supplement and correct field data from the industry. In the present study, data has been retrieved and organized such that the estimated costs for decommissioning of the Isotope Central become transparent and reliable. This approach gives a preliminary qualitative indication about the accuracy of the cost estimate delivered by the industry

On Cost Estimate for Decommissioning of one Isotope Central

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marek Vasko et al

2010-08-15

The main scope of this study has been to calculate the future cost for decommission and dismantling the Isotope central at the Studsvik site using the OMEGA CODE. Detailed empirical information is used in the study for 'bench-marking' purposes, in such cases when there is a need to supplement and correct field data from the industry. In the present study, data has been retrieved and organized such that the estimated costs for decommissioning of the Isotope Central become transparent and reliable. This approach gives a preliminary qualitative indication about the accuracy of the cost estimate delivered by the industry

Cost estimating issues in the Russian integrated system planning context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allentuck, J.

1996-01-01

An important factor in the credibility of an optimal capacity expansion plan is the accuracy of cost estimates given the uncertainty of future economic conditions. This paper examines the problems associated with estimating investment and operating costs in the Russian nuclear power context over the period 1994 to 2010

Comparing NASA and ESA Cost Estimating Methods for Human Missions to Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, Charles D.; vanPelt, Michel O.

2004-01-01

To compare working methodologies between the cost engineering functions in NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and ESA European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), as well as to set-up cost engineering capabilities for future manned Mars projects and other studies which involve similar subsystem technologies in MSFC and ESTEC, a demonstration cost estimate exercise was organized. This exercise was a direct way of enhancing not only cooperation between agencies but also both agencies commitment to credible cost analyses. Cost engineers in MSFC and ESTEC independently prepared life-cycle cost estimates for a reference human Mars project and subsequently compared the results and estimate methods in detail. As a non-sensitive, public domain reference case for human Mars projects, the Mars Direct concept was chosen. In this paper the results of the exercise are shown; the differences and similarities in estimate methodologies, philosophies, and databases between MSFC and ESTEC, as well as the estimate results for the Mars Direct concept. The most significant differences are explained and possible estimate improvements identified. In addition, the Mars Direct plan and the extensive cost breakdown structure jointly set-up by MSFC and ESTEC for this concept are presented. It was found that NASA applied estimate models mainly based on historic Apollo and Space Shuttle cost data, taking into account the changes in technology since then. ESA used models mostly based on European satellite and launcher cost data, taking into account the higher equipment and testing standards for human space flight. Most of NASA's and ESA s estimates for the Mars Direct case are comparable, but there are some important, consistent differences in the estimates for: 1) Large Structures and Thermal Control subsystems; 2) System Level Management, Engineering, Product Assurance and Assembly, Integration and Test/Verification activities; 3) Mission Control; 4) Space Agency Program Level

Importance of funding in decommissioning cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mingst, B.C.

1987-01-01

Decommissioning cost estimates have been made by several study groups for the decommissioning of pressurized-water and boiling-water nuclear power stations. The results of these studies are comparable when corrected for inflation and the differences in contingency factors applied by the study groups. The estimated dismantling costs differ far less than a factor of 2 in all cases, despite the design differences found in the plants that were studied. An analysis of the different methods available for funding the dismantling of these facilities shows the much stronger effect that the choice of funding methods has on the net cost of decommissioning. The total cost of dismantling may vary more than a factor of 4 from one funding method to another, assuming current or recent historical inflation rates. The funding methods evaluated include sinking funds, deposits, negative-salvage value depreciation, and insurance. These funding methods are taken from the NRC's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking description of acceptable funding methods. The funding analysis for this study was performed using the DECOST-86 computer code. The evaluation of funding options for a nuclear facility, and the appropriate choice of the funding method best for that facility, are found to be more important than detailed engineering studies in determining the net cost of decommissioning during the early portions of the plant's operating lifetime

An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole.

An Adjusted Discount Rate Model for Fuel Cycle Cost Estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, S. K.; Kang, G. B.; Ko, W. I.

2013-01-01

Owing to the diverse nuclear fuel cycle options available, including direct disposal, it is necessary to select the optimum nuclear fuel cycles in consideration of the political and social environments as well as the technical stability and economic efficiency of each country. Economic efficiency is therefore one of the significant evaluation standards. In particular, because nuclear fuel cycle cost may vary in each country, and the estimated cost usually prevails over the real cost, when evaluating the economic efficiency, any existing uncertainty needs to be removed when possible to produce reliable cost information. Many countries still do not have reprocessing facilities, and no globally commercialized HLW (High-level waste) repository is available. A nuclear fuel cycle cost estimation model is therefore inevitably subject to uncertainty. This paper analyzes the uncertainty arising out of a nuclear fuel cycle cost evaluation from the viewpoint of a cost estimation model. Compared to the same discount rate model, the nuclear fuel cycle cost of a different discount rate model is reduced because the generation quantity as denominator in Equation has been discounted. Namely, if the discount rate reduces in the back-end process of the nuclear fuel cycle, the nuclear fuel cycle cost is also reduced. Further, it was found that the cost of the same discount rate model is overestimated compared with the different discount rate model as a whole

Methodology for estimating reprocessing costs for nuclear fuels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carter, W.L.; Rainey, R.H.

1980-02-01

A technological and economic evaluation of reprocessing requirements for alternate fuel cycles requires a common assessment method and a common basis to which various cycles can be related. A methodology is described for the assessment of alternate fuel cycles utilizing a side-by-side comparison of functional flow diagrams of major areas of the reprocessing plant with corresponding diagrams of the well-developed Purex process as installed in the Barnwell Nuclear Fuel Plant (BNFP). The BNFP treats 1500 metric tons of uranium per year (MTU/yr). Complexity and capacity factors are determined for adjusting the estimated facility and equipment costs of BNFP to determine the corresponding costs for the alternate fuel cycle. Costs of capacities other than the reference 1500 MT of heavy metal per year are estimated by the use of scaling factors. Unit costs of reprocessed fuel are calculated using a discounted cash flow analysis for three economic bases to show the effect of low-risk, typical, and high-risk financing methods

Estimating the cost of production stoppage

Science.gov (United States)

Delionback, L. M.

1979-01-01

Estimation model considers learning curve quantities, and time of break to forecast losses due to break in production schedule. Major parameters capable of predicting costs are number of units made prior to production sequence, length of production break, and slope of learning curve produced prior to break.

A level playing field-obtaining consistent cost estimates for advanced reactor designs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, C.R.; Rohm, H.H.; Humphreys, J.R.

1987-01-01

A level playing field in sports is necessary to avoid a situation in which a team has an unfair advantage over its competition. Similarly, rules and guidelines for developing cost estimates can be established which, in effect, provide a level playing field whereby cost estimates for advanced power plant concepts can be presented on a consistent and equitable basis. As an example, consider the capital costs shown in Table 1. Both sets of cost are for the exact same power plant; Estimate 1 is expressed in constant dollars while Estimate 2 is presented in nominal or as-spent dollars. As shown, the costs in Table 1 are not directly comparable. Similar problems can be introduced as a result of differing assumptions in any number of parameters including the scope of the cost estimate, inflation/escalation and interest rates, contingency costs, and site location. Of course, the motivation for having consistent cost estimates is to permit comparison among various concepts. As the U.S. Department of Energy sponsors research and development work on several advanced reactor concepts in which expected cost is a key evaluation parameter, the emphasis in this particular endeavor has been in promoting the comparability of advanced reactor cost estimates among themselves and to existing power plant types. To continue with the analogy, the idea is to lay out the playing field and the rules of the contest such that each team participates in the match on an equal basis with the final score being solely determined by the inherent strengths and abilities of the teams. A description of the playing field and some of the more important rules will now be provided

Cost estimates for Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm: a budgetary analysis

OpenAIRE

Johnson, J. Andrew.

1991-01-01

Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm (DS/DS) presented unique challenges for estimating the cost of that conflict. This analysis reviews the cost estimates and methodologies developed for that purpose by DoD, CBO and GAO. It considers the budget climate and the role of foreign cash and in-kind contributions. Finally, it reviews the budgeting innovations used to provide and monitor DS/DS defense spending. At the outset of the crisis, costs were estimated to determine the defense funding requir...

An Evaluation of the Automated Cost Estimating Integrated Tools (ACEIT) System

Science.gov (United States)

1989-09-01

C~4p DTIC S ELECTE fl JAN12 19 .1R ~OF S%. B -U AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Caroline L...Ohio go 91 022 AFIT/GCA/LSQ/89S-5 AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Caroline L. Hanson Major, USAF...Department of Defense. AFIT/GCA/LSQ/89S-5 AN EVALUATION OF THE AUTOMATED COST ESTIMATING INTEGRATED TOOLS ( ACEIT ) SYSTEM THESIS Presented to the

Cost estimate for electrostatically plugged cusp reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dolan, T.J.

1977-01-01

A preliminary design of an electrostatically plugged cusp reactor was presented in (UCRL-52142(1976)). The capital costs of the various components of this reactor are estimated and totaled for two different blanket configurations: one having an energy multiplication factor M = 1.2, and the other having M = 1.68. The unoptimized direct capital costs for these cases are found to be about 1400 and 950 $/kWe, respectively

Estimation of the cost of large-scale school deworming programmes with benzimidazoles

Science.gov (United States)

Montresor, A.; Gabrielli, A.F.; Engels, D.

2017-01-01

Summary This study estimates the cost of distributing benzimidazole tablets in the context of school deworming programmes: we analysed studies reporting the cost of school deworming from seven countries in four WHO regions. The estimated cost for drug procurement to cover one million children (including customs clearance and international transport) is approximately US$20 000. The estimated financial costs (including the cost of training of personnel, drug transport, social mobilization and monitoring) is, on average, equivalent to US$33 000 per million school-age children with minimal variation in different countries and continents. The estimated economic costs of distribution (including the time spent by teachers, and health personnel at central, provincial and district level) to cover one million children approximately corresponds to US$19 000. This study shows the minimal cost of school deworming activities, but also shows the significant contribution (corresponding to a quarter of the entire cost of the programme) provided by health and education systems in endemic countries even in the case of drug donations and donor support of distribution costs. PMID:19926104

Cost estimation for decommissioning of research reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grossi, Pablo Andrade; Tello, Cledola Cassia Oliveira de; Segabinaze, Roberto de Oliveira; Daniska, Vladimir

2013-01-01

In the case of research reactors, the limited data that is available tends to provide only overall decommissioning costs, without any breakdown of the main cost elements. In order to address this subject, it is important to collect and analyse all available data of decommissioning costs for the research reactors. The IAEA has started the DACCORD Project focused on data analysis and costing of research reactors decommissioning. Data collection is organized in accordance with the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC), developed jointly by the IAEA, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the European Commission. The specific aims of the project include the development of representative and comparative data and datasets for preliminary costing for decommissioning. This paper will focus on presenting a technique to consider several representative input data in accordance with the ISDC structure and using the CERREX (Cost Estimation for Research Reactors in Excel) software developed by IAEA. (author)

The Software Cost Estimation Method Based on Fuzzy Ontology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Plecka Przemysław

2014-12-01

Full Text Available In the course of sales process of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP Systems, it turns out that the standard system must be extended or changed (modified according to specific customer’s requirements. Therefore, suppliers face the problem of determining the cost of additional works. Most methods of cost estimation bring satisfactory results only at the stage of pre-implementation analysis. However, suppliers need to know the estimated cost as early as at the stage of trade talks. During contract negotiations, they expect not only the information about the costs of works, but also about the risk of exceeding these costs or about the margin of safety. One method that gives more accurate results at the stage of trade talks is the method based on the ontology of implementation costs. This paper proposes modification of the method involving the use of fuzzy attributes, classes, instances and relations in the ontology. The result provides not only the information about the value of work, but also about the minimum and maximum expected cost, and the most likely range of costs. This solution allows suppliers to effectively negotiate the contract and increase the chances of successful completion of the project.

State-Level Estimates of Obesity-Attributable Costs of Absenteeism

Science.gov (United States)

Andreyeva, Tatiana; Luedicke, Joerg; Wang, Y. Claire

2014-01-01

Objective To provide state-level estimates of obesity-attributable costs of absenteeism among working adults in the U.S. Methods Nationally-representative data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for 1998–2008 and from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for 2012 are examined. The outcome is obesity-attributable workdays missed in the previous year due to health, and their costs to states. Results Obesity, but not overweight, is associated with a significant increase in workdays absent, from 1.1 to 1.7 extra days missed annually compared to normal weight employees. Obesity-attributable absenteeism among American workers costs the nation an estimated $8.65 billion per year. Conclusion Obesity imposes a considerable financial burden on states, accounting for 6.5%–12.6% of total absenteeism costs in the workplace. State legislature and employers should seek effective ways to reduce these costs. PMID:25376405

A comparison of two methods for estimating the technical costs of external beam radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayman, James A.; Lash, Kathy A.; Tao, May L.; Halman, Marc A.

2000-01-01

Purpose: To accurately assess the cost-effectiveness of treatment with external beam radiation, it is necessary to have accurate estimates of its cost. One of the most common methods for estimating technical costs has been to convert Medicare charges into costs using Medicare Cost-to-Charge Ratios (CCR). More recently, health care organizations have begun to invest in sophisticated cost-accounting systems (CAS) that are capable of providing procedure-specific cost estimates. The purpose of this study was to examine whether these competing approaches result in similar cost estimates for four typical courses of external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Methods and Materials: Technical costs were estimated for the following treatment courses: 1) a palliative 'simple' course of 10 fractions using a single field without blocks; 2) a palliative 'complex' course of 10 fractions using two opposed fields with custom blocks; 3) a curative course of 30 fractions for breast cancer using tangent fields followed by an electron beam boost; and 4) a curative course of 35 fractions for prostate cancer using CT-planning and a 4-field technique. Costs were estimated using the CCR approach by multiplying the number of units of each procedure billed by its Medicare charge and CCR and then summing these costs. Procedure-specific cost estimates were obtained from a cost-accounting system, and overall costs were then estimated for the CAS approach by multiplying the number of units billed by the appropriate unit cost estimate and then summing these costs. All costs were estimated using data from 1997. The analysis was also repeated using data from another academic institution to estimate their costs using the CCR and CAS methods, as well as the appropriate relative value units (RVUs) and conversion factor from the 1997 Medicare Fee Schedule to estimate Medicare reimbursement for the four treatment courses. Results: The estimated technical costs for the CCR vs. CAS approaches for the four

Top-down and bottom-up approaches for cost estimating new reactor designs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berbey, P.; Gautier, G.M.; Duflo, D.; Rouyer, J.L.

2007-01-01

For several years, Generation-4 designs will be 'pre-conceptual' for the less mature concepts and 'preliminary' for the more mature concepts. In this situation, appropriate data for some of the plant systems may be lacking to develop a bottom-up cost estimate. Therefore, a more global approach, the Top-Down Approach (TDA), is needed to help the designers and decision makers in comparing design options. It utilizes more or less simple models for cost estimating the different parts of a design. TDA cost estimating effort applies to a whole functional element whose cost is approached by similar estimations coming from existing data, ratios and models, for a given range of variation of parameters. Modeling is used when direct analogy is not possible. There are two types of models, global and specific ones. Global models are applied to cost modules related to Code Of Account. Exponential formulae such as Ci = Ai + (Bi x Pi n ) are used when there are cost data for comparable modules in nuclear or other industries. Specific cost models are developed for major specific components of the plant: - process equipment such as reactor vessel, steam generators or large heat exchangers. - buildings, with formulae estimating the construction cost from base cost of m3 of building volume. - systems, when unit costs, cost ratios and models are used, depending on the level of detail of the design. Bottom Up Approach (BUA), which is based on unit prices coming from similar equipment or from manufacturer consulting, is very valuable and gives better cost estimations than TDA when it can be applied, that is at a rather late stage of the design. Both approaches are complementary when some parts of the design are detailed enough to be estimated by BUA, and when BUA results are used to check TDA results and to improve TDA models. This methodology is applied to the HTR (High Temperature Reactor) concept and to an advanced PWR design

Estimation of costs for fabrication of pressurized-water reactor fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Judkins, R.R.; Olsen, A.R.

1979-01-01

To provide a reference case on which to base cost estimates of the several fuel cycles to be considered, the facility, equipment, and operating requirements for the fabrication of fuel for current-design pressurized-water reactors were examined. From an analysis of these requirements, the capital and operating costs of a plant with a capacity of two metric tons of heavy metal per day (MTHM/day) were estimated. In a cash flow analysis, the lifetime of the plant was assumed to be 20 y, and the income from the sale of nuclear fuel assemblies over this period was equated to the total capital and operating expenses of the plant, including a specified 15% return on investment. In this way a levelized unit price for the fuel was obtained. The effects of inflation were not considered since the purpose of these estimates and the determination of unit price was to permit comparison of different types of fuels. The capital costs of the fuel fabrication plant were estimated at $32 million for the facility--land, site preparation, building--and $34 million for equipment. Annual operating costs including labor, management, materials, and utilities were estimated to be $36.5 million. From these estimates, the unit price for fabricating the fuel for the reference pressurized-water reactor was determined to be $138/kg of heavy metal or $63,600 per fuel assembly

Final report on cost estimate of forward superconducting air core toroid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fields, T.

1992-12-01

An independent cost-estimate for key components of the forward superconducting air core toroid (ACT) was obtained in May 1992 from an experienced manufacturer of large cryogenic vessels. This new cost estimate is summarized in this report. It implies that a suitably designed ACT may have a cost which is approximately equal to that of the presently designed SDC forward iron core toroid

Fusion reactor design studies: standard accounts for cost estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulte, S.C.; Willke, T.L.; Young, J.R.

1978-05-01

The fusion reactor design studies--standard accounts for cost estimates provides a common format from which to assess the economic character of magnetically confined fusion reactor design concepts. The format will aid designers in the preparation of design concept costs estimates and also provide policymakers with a tool to assist in appraising which design concept may be economically promising. The format sets forth a categorization and accounting procedure to be used when estimating fusion reactor busbar energy cost that can be easily and consistently applied. Reasons for developing the procedure, explanations of the procedure, justifications for assumptions made in the procedure, and the applicability of the procedure are described in this document. Adherence to the format when evaluating prospective fusion reactor design concepts will result in the identification of the more promising design concepts thus enabling the fusion power alternatives with better economic potential to be quickly and efficiently developed

Development of Cost Estimation Methodology of Decommissioning for PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Il; Yoo, Yeon Jae; Lim, Yong Kyu; Chang, Hyeon Sik; Song, Geun Ho

2013-01-01

The permanent closure of nuclear power plant should be conducted with the strict laws and the profound planning including the cost and schedule estimation because the plant is very contaminated with the radioactivity. In Korea, there are two types of the nuclear power plant. One is the pressurized light water reactor (PWR) and the other is the pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) called as CANDU reactor. Also, the 50% of the operating nuclear power plant in Korea is the PWRs which were originally designed by CE (Combustion Engineering). There have been experiences about the decommissioning of Westinghouse type PWR, but are few experiences on that of CE type PWR. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop the cost estimation methodology and evaluate technical level of decommissioning for the application to CE type PWR based on the system engineering technology. The aim of present study is to develop the cost estimation methodology of decommissioning for application to PWR. Through the study, the following conclusions are obtained: · Based on the system engineering, the decommissioning work can be classified as Set, Subset, Task, Subtask and Work cost units. · The Set and Task structure are grouped as 29 Sets and 15 Task s, respectively. · The final result shows the cost and project schedule for the project control and risk management. · The present results are preliminary and should be refined and improved based on the modeling and cost data reflecting available technology and current costs like labor and waste data

Estimation of the cost of large-scale school deworming programmes with benzimidazoles.

Science.gov (United States)

Montresor, A; Gabrielli, A F; Diarra, A; Engels, D

2010-02-01

This study estimates the cost of distributing benzimidazole tablets in the context of school deworming programmes: we analysed studies reporting the cost of school deworming from seven countries in four WHO regions. The estimated cost for drug procurement to cover one million children (including customs clearance and international transport) is approximately US$20000. The estimated financial costs (including the cost of training of personnel, drug transport, social mobilization and monitoring) is, on average, equivalent to US$33000 per million school-age children with minimal variation in different countries and continents. The estimated economic costs of distribution (including the time spent by teachers, and health personnel at central, provincial and district level) to cover one million children approximately corresponds to US$19000. This study shows the minimal cost of school deworming activities, but also shows the significant contribution (corresponding to a quarter of the entire cost of the programme) provided by health and education systems in endemic countries even in the case of drug donations and donor support of distribution costs. Copyright 2009 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A practical approach for calculating reliable cost estimates from observational data: application to cost analyses in maternal and child health.

Science.gov (United States)

Salemi, Jason L; Comins, Meg M; Chandler, Kristen; Mogos, Mulubrhan F; Salihu, Hamisu M

2013-08-01

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) and cost-effectiveness analysis are valuable tools for informing health policy and clinical care decisions. Despite the increased availability of rich observational databases with economic measures, few researchers have the skills needed to conduct valid and reliable cost analyses for CER. The objectives of this paper are to (i) describe a practical approach for calculating cost estimates from hospital charges in discharge data using publicly available hospital cost reports, and (ii) assess the impact of using different methods for cost estimation in maternal and child health (MCH) studies by conducting economic analyses on gestational diabetes (GDM) and pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity. In Florida, we have constructed a clinically enhanced, longitudinal, encounter-level MCH database covering over 2.3 million infants (and their mothers) born alive from 1998 to 2009. Using this as a template, we describe a detailed methodology to use publicly available data to calculate hospital-wide and department-specific cost-to-charge ratios (CCRs), link them to the master database, and convert reported hospital charges to refined cost estimates. We then conduct an economic analysis as a case study on women by GDM and pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) status to compare the impact of using different methods on cost estimation. Over 60 % of inpatient charges for birth hospitalizations came from the nursery/labor/delivery units, which have very different cost-to-charge markups (CCR = 0.70) than the commonly substituted hospital average (CCR = 0.29). Using estimated mean, per-person maternal hospitalization costs for women with GDM as an example, unadjusted charges ($US14,696) grossly overestimated actual cost, compared with hospital-wide ($US3,498) and department-level ($US4,986) CCR adjustments. However, the refined cost estimation method, although more accurate, did not alter our conclusions that infant/maternal hospitalization costs

Estimating the cost of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Goldie Sue J

2006-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs can provide useful information to policymakers concerned with the broad allocation of resources as well as to local decision makers choosing between different options for reducing the burden from a single disease. For the latter, it is important to use country-specific data when possible and to represent cost differences between countries that might make one strategy more or less attractive than another strategy locally. As part of a CEA of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries, we supplemented limited primary cost data by developing other estimation techniques for direct medical and non-medical costs associated with alternative screening approaches using one of three initial screening tests: simple visual screening, HPV DNA testing, and cervical cytology. Here, we report estimation methods and results for three cost areas in which data were lacking. Methods To supplement direct medical costs, including staff, supplies, and equipment depreciation using country-specific data, we used alternative techniques to quantify cervical cytology and HPV DNA laboratory sample processing costs. We used a detailed quantity and price approach whose face validity was compared to an adaptation of a US laboratory estimation methodology. This methodology was also used to project annual sample processing capacities for each laboratory type. The cost of sample transport from the clinic to the laboratory was estimated using spatial models. A plausible range of the cost of patient time spent seeking and receiving screening was estimated using only formal sector employment and wages as well as using both formal and informal sector participation and country-specific minimum wages. Data sources included primary data from country-specific studies, international databases, international prices, and expert opinion. Costs were standardized to year 2000 international dollars using inflation adjustment and

Spreadsheet tool for estimating noise reduction costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frank, L.; Senden, V.; Leszczynski, Y.

2009-01-01

The Northeast Capital Industrial Association (NCIA) represents industry in Alberta's industrial heartland. The organization is in the process of developing a regional noise management plan (RNMP) for their member companies. The RNMP includes the development of a noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool to conduct reviews of practical noise control treatments available for individual plant equipment, inclusive of ranges of noise attenuation achievable, which produces a budgetary prediction of the installed cost of practical noise control treatments. This paper discussed the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool, with particular reference to noise control best practices approaches and spreadsheet tool development such as prerequisite, assembling data required, approach, and unit pricing database. Use and optimization of the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool was also discussed. It was concluded that the noise reduction cost spreadsheet tool is an easy interactive tool to estimate implementation costs related to different strategies and options of noise control mitigating measures and was very helpful in gaining insight for noise control planning purposes. 2 tabs.

A non-stationary cost-benefit analysis approach for extreme flood estimation to explore the nexus of 'Risk, Cost and Non-stationarity'

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Wei

2017-11-01

Cost-benefit analysis is commonly used for engineering planning and design problems in practice. However, previous cost-benefit based design flood estimation is based on stationary assumption. This study develops a non-stationary cost-benefit based design flood estimation approach. This approach integrates a non-stationary probability distribution function into cost-benefit analysis, and influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost (including flood damage and construction costs) and design flood estimation can be quantified. To facilitate design flood selections, a 'Risk-Cost' analysis approach is developed, which reveals the nexus of extreme flood risk, expected total cost and design life periods. Two basins, with 54-year and 104-year flood data respectively, are utilized to illustrate the application. It is found that the developed approach can effectively reveal changes of expected total cost and extreme floods in different design life periods. In addition, trade-offs are found between extreme flood risk and expected total cost, which reflect increases in cost to mitigate risk. Comparing with stationary approaches which generate only one expected total cost curve and therefore only one design flood estimation, the proposed new approach generate design flood estimation intervals and the 'Risk-Cost' approach selects a design flood value from the intervals based on the trade-offs between extreme flood risk and expected total cost. This study provides a new approach towards a better understanding of the influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost and design floods, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary design flood estimation across the world.

Methodology applied by IRSN for nuclear accident cost estimations in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This report describes the methodology used by IRSN to estimate the cost of potential nuclear accidents in France. It concerns possible accidents involving pressurized water reactors leading to radioactive releases in the environment. These accidents have been grouped in two accident families called: severe accidents and major accidents. Two model scenarios have been selected to represent each of these families. The report discusses the general methodology of nuclear accident cost estimation. The crucial point is that all cost should be considered: if not, the cost is underestimated which can lead to negative consequences for the value attributed to safety and for crisis preparation. As a result, the overall cost comprises many components: the most well-known is offsite radiological costs, but there are many others. The proposed estimates have thus required using a diversity of methods which are described in this report. Figures are presented at the end of this report. Among other things, they show that purely radiological costs only represent a non-dominant part of foreseeable economic consequences

Estimated incremental costs for NRC licensees to implement the US/IAEA safeguards agreement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, R.G.; Brouns, R.J.; Chockie, A.D.; Davenport, L.C.; Merrill, J.A.

1979-01-01

A study was recently completed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commision (NRC) by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to identify the incremental cost of implementing the US/IAEA safeguards treaty agreement to eligible NRC licensees. Sources for the study were cost estimates from several licensees who will be affected by the agreement and cost analyses by PNL staff. The initial cost to all eligible licensees to implement the agreement is estimated by PNL to range from $1.9 to $7.2 million. The annual cost to these same licensees for the required accounting and reporting activities is estimated at $0.5 to $1.5 million. Annual inspection costs to the industry for the limited IAEA inspection being assumed is estimated at $80,000 to $160,000

Estimated annual cost of arterial hypertension treatment in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Dib, Murilo W; Riera, Rachel; Ferraz, Marcos B

2010-02-01

To estimate the direct annual cost of systemic arterial hypertension (SAH) treatment in Brazil's public and private health care systems, assess its economic impact on the total health care budget, and determine its proportion of the 2005 gross domestic product (GDP). A decision tree model was used to determine direct costs based on estimated use of various resources in SAH diagnosis and care, including treatment (medication and non-medication), complementary exams, doctor visits, nutritional assessments, and emergency room visits. Estimated direct annual cost of SAH treatment was approximately US$ 398.9 million for the public health care system and US$ 272.7 million for the private system, representing 0.08% of the 2005 GDP (ranging from 0.05% to 0.16%). With total health care expenses comprising about 7.6% of Brazil's GDP, this cost represented 1.11% of overall health care costs (0.62% to 2.06%)-1.43% of total expenses for the Unified Healthcare System (Sistema Unico de Saúde, SUS) (0.79% to 2.75%) and 0.83% of expenses for the private health care system (0.47% to 1.48%). Conclusion. To guarantee public or private health care based on the principles of universality and equality, with limited available resources, efforts must be focused on educating the population on prevention and treatment compliance in diseases such as SAH that require significant health resources.

The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate.

Science.gov (United States)

Prinja, Shankar; Bahuguna, Pankaj; Pinto, Andrew D; Sharma, Atul; Bharaj, Gursimer; Kumar, Vishal; Tripathy, Jaya Prasad; Kaur, Manmeet; Kumar, Rajesh

2012-01-01

As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed. We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers. We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18-73) per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%-6.8%) of the GDP for universalizing health care services. The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.

U.S. Refinery compliance costs - the elements of and estimate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Musgrove, J.G.; Swain, E.J.

1993-01-01

A recent National Petroleum Council study identified the environmental costs facing the refining industry from 1995 through 2010. Four broad areas were identified: air pollution control, wastewater treatment, solid and hazardous waste treatment, and occupational health and safety. This paper will present the technical issues and engineering information required to produce an estimate of cost impact. For each of the four areas of impact, the kinds of information required of the refinery manager in order to build an estimate will be tabulated and discussed. For air pollution control, issues will include size and type of unit, product mix of output, and the impact of facility location relative to non-attainment issues. For wastewater, issues will include stormwater segregation, benzene NESHAP, and other treatment system requirements. For hazardous waste treatment, issues will include groundwater protection and leak detection and contaminated soil segregation. For occupational health and safety, issues will include process changes required and worker training required. For all issues, the major dollar factors will be identified as a function of the technical data available. The refinery costs in each areas were estimated for seven groups of refinery sizes. The presentation will conclude with tabulation of cost estimates for each area of investigation and each refinery group. The total costs for each refinery group over the fifteen-year period will also be presented

Cost estimation of thermal and nuclear power using annual securities report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuo, Yuji; Nagatomi, Yu; Murakami, Tomoko

2011-01-01

Cost estimation of generation cost derived from various power sources was widely conducted using model plant or annual securities report of electric utilities. Although annual securities report method was subjected to some limitation in methodology itself, useful information was obtained for cost comparison of thermal and nuclear power. Studies on generation cost evaluation of thermal and nuclear power based on this method during past five years showed that nuclear power cost was almost stable 7 Yen/kWh and thermal power cost was varying 9 - 12 Yen/kWh dependent on violent fluctuations of primary energy cost. Nuclear power was expected cost increase due to enhanced safety requirements or damage compensation of accidents as well as decommissioning and back-end cost, which were difficult to evaluate accurately with annual securities report. Further comprehensive and accurate cost estimation should be encouraged including these items. (T. Tanaka)

Estimated Incident Cost Savings in Shipping Due to Inspections

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. Knapp (Sabine); G.E. Bijwaard (Govert); C. Heij (Christiaan)

2010-01-01

textabstractThe effectiveness of safety inspections has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper quantifies estimated cost savings based on port state control inspections and

ANN Based Approach for Estimation of Construction Costs of Sports Fields

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michał Juszczyk

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Cost estimates are essential for the success of construction projects. Neural networks, as the tools of artificial intelligence, offer a significant potential in this field. Applying neural networks, however, requires respective studies due to the specifics of different kinds of facilities. This paper presents the proposal of an approach to the estimation of construction costs of sports fields which is based on neural networks. The general applicability of artificial neural networks in the formulated problem with cost estimation is investigated. An applicability of multilayer perceptron networks is confirmed by the results of the initial training of a set of various artificial neural networks. Moreover, one network was tailored for mapping a relationship between the total cost of construction works and the selected cost predictors which are characteristic of sports fields. Its prediction quality and accuracy were assessed positively. The research results legitimatize the proposed approach.

Site restoration: Estimation of attributable costs from plutonium-dispersal accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chanin, D.I.; Murfin, W.B.

1996-05-01

A nuclear weapons accident is an extremely unlikely event due to the extensive care taken in operations. However, under some hypothetical accident conditions, plutonium might be dispersed to the environment. This would result in costs being incurred by the government to remediate the site and compensate for losses. This study is a multi-disciplinary evaluation of the potential scope of the post-accident response that includes technical factors, current and proposed legal requirements and constraints, as well as social/political factors that could influence decision making. The study provides parameters that can be used to assess economic costs for accidents postulated to occur in urban areas, Midwest farmland, Western rangeland, and forest. Per-area remediation costs have been estimated, using industry-standard methods, for both expedited and extended remediation. Expedited remediation costs have been evaluated for highways, airports, and urban areas. Extended remediation costs have been evaluated for all land uses except highways and airports. The inclusion of cost estimates in risk assessments, together with the conventional estimation of doses and health effects, allows a fuller understanding of the post-accident environment. The insights obtained can be used to minimize economic risks by evaluation of operational and design alternatives, and through development of improved capabilities for accident response

Site restoration: Estimation of attributable costs from plutonium-dispersal accidents

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chanin, D.I.; Murfin, W.B. [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1996-05-01

A nuclear weapons accident is an extremely unlikely event due to the extensive care taken in operations. However, under some hypothetical accident conditions, plutonium might be dispersed to the environment. This would result in costs being incurred by the government to remediate the site and compensate for losses. This study is a multi-disciplinary evaluation of the potential scope of the post-accident response that includes technical factors, current and proposed legal requirements and constraints, as well as social/political factors that could influence decision making. The study provides parameters that can be used to assess economic costs for accidents postulated to occur in urban areas, Midwest farmland, Western rangeland, and forest. Per-area remediation costs have been estimated, using industry-standard methods, for both expedited and extended remediation. Expedited remediation costs have been evaluated for highways, airports, and urban areas. Extended remediation costs have been evaluated for all land uses except highways and airports. The inclusion of cost estimates in risk assessments, together with the conventional estimation of doses and health effects, allows a fuller understanding of the post-accident environment. The insights obtained can be used to minimize economic risks by evaluation of operational and design alternatives, and through development of improved capabilities for accident response.

Methodology for cost estimate in projects for nuclear power plants decommissioning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salij, L.M.

2008-01-01

The conceptual approaches to cost estimating of nuclear power plants units decommissioning projects were determined. The international experience and national legislative and regulatory basis were analyzed. The possible decommissioning project cost classification was given. It was shown the role of project costs of nuclear power plant units decommissioning as the most important criterion for the main project decisions. The technical and economic estimation of deductions to common-branch fund of decommissioning projects financing was substantiated

A Cost Simulation Tool for Estimating the Cost of Operating Government Owned and Operated Ships

Science.gov (United States)

1994-09-01

Horngren , C.T., Foster, G., Datar, S.M., Cost Accounting : A Management Emphasis, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1994 IBM Corporation, A Graphical...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A COST SIMULATION TOOL FOR 5. FUNDING NUMBERS ESTIMATING THE COST OF OPERATING GOVERNMENT OWNED AND OPERATED SHIPS 6. AUTHOR( S ...normally does not present a problem to the accounting department. The final category, the cost of operating the government owned and operated ships is

Estimates and implications of the costs of compliance with biosafety regulations in developing countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Falck-Zepeda, Jose; Yorobe, Jose; Husin, Bahagiawati Amir; Manalo, Abraham; Lokollo, Erna; Ramon, Godfrey; Zambrano, Patricia; Sutrisno

2012-01-01

Estimating the cost of compliance with biosafety regulations is important as it helps developers focus their investments in producer development. We provide estimates for the cost of compliance for a set of technologies in Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries. These costs vary from US $100,000 to 1.7 million. These are estimates of regulatory costs and do not include product development or deployment costs. Cost estimates need to be compared with potential gains when the technology is introduced in these countries and the gains in knowledge accumulate during the biosafety assessment process. Although the cost of compliance is important, time delays and uncertainty are even more important and may have an adverse impact on innovations reaching farmers.

The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shankar Prinja

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed. METHODS: We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers. RESULTS: We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18-73 per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%-6.8% of the GDP for universalizing health care services. CONCLUSION: The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.

The Hospitalization Costs of Diabetes and Hypertension Complications in Zimbabwe: Estimations and Correlations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mutsa P. Mutowo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. Treating complications associated with diabetes and hypertension imposes significant costs on health care systems. This study estimated the hospitalization costs for inpatients in a public hospital in Zimbabwe. Methods. The study was retrospective and utilized secondary data from medical records. Total hospitalization costs were estimated using generalized linear models. Results. The median cost and interquartile range (IQR for patients with diabetes, $994 (385–1553 mean $1319 (95% CI: 981–1657, was higher than patients with hypertension, $759 (494–1147 mean $914 (95% CI: 825–1003. Female patients aged below 65 years with diabetes had the highest estimated mean costs ($1467 (95% CI: 1177–1828. Wound care had the highest estimated mean cost of all procedures, $2884 (95% CI: 2004–4149 for patients with diabetes and $2239 (95% CI: 1589–3156 for patients with hypertension. Age below 65 years, medical procedures (amputation, wound care, dialysis, and physiotherapy, the presence of two or more comorbidities, and being prescribed two or more drugs were associated with significantly higher hospitalization costs. Conclusion. Our estimated costs could be used to evaluate and improve current inpatient treatment and management of patients with diabetes and hypertension and determine the most cost-effective interventions to prevent complications and comorbidities.

Estimating the costs of intensity-modulated and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy in Ontario.

Science.gov (United States)

Yong, J H E; McGowan, T; Redmond-Misner, R; Beca, J; Warde, P; Gutierrez, E; Hoch, J S

2016-06-01

Radiotherapy is a common treatment for many cancers, but up-to-date estimates of the costs of radiotherapy are lacking. In the present study, we estimated the unit costs of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (imrt) and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-crt) in Ontario. An activity-based costing model was developed to estimate the costs of imrt and 3D-crt in prostate cancer. It included the costs of equipment, staff, and supporting infrastructure. The framework was subsequently adapted to estimate the costs of radiotherapy in breast cancer and head-and-neck cancer. We also tested various scenarios by varying the program maturity and the use of volumetric modulated arc therapy (vmat) alongside imrt. From the perspective of the health care system, treating prostate cancer with imrt and 3D-crt respectively cost $12,834 and $12,453 per patient. The cost of radiotherapy ranged from $5,270 to $14,155 and was sensitive to analytic perspective, radiation technique, and disease site. Cases of head-and-neck cancer were the most costly, being driven by treatment complexity and fractions per treatment. Although imrt was more costly than 3D-crt, its cost will likely decline over time as programs mature and vmat is incorporated. Our costing model can be modified to estimate the costs of 3D-crt and imrt for various disease sites and settings. The results demonstrate the important role of capital costs in studies of radiotherapy cost from a health system perspective, which our model can accommodate. In addition, our study established the need for future analyses of imrt cost to consider how vmat affects time consumption.

Survey of State-Level Cost and Benefit Estimates of Renewable Portfolio Standards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heeter, J.; Barbose, G.; Bird, L.; Weaver, S.; Flores-Espino, F.; Kuskova-Burns, K.; Wiser, R.

2014-05-01

Most renewable portfolio standards (RPS) have five or more years of implementation experience, enabling an assessment of their costs and benefits. Understanding RPS costs and benefits is essential for policymakers evaluating existing RPS policies, assessing the need for modifications, and considering new policies. This study provides an overview of methods used to estimate RPS compliance costs and benefits, based on available data and estimates issued by utilities and regulators. Over the 2010-2012 period, average incremental RPS compliance costs in the United States were equivalent to 0.8% of retail electricity rates, although substantial variation exists around this average, both from year-to-year and across states. The methods used by utilities and regulators to estimate incremental compliance costs vary considerably from state to state and a number of states are currently engaged in processes to refine and standardize their approaches to RPS cost calculation. The report finds that state assessments of RPS benefits have most commonly attempted to quantitatively assess avoided emissions and human health benefits, economic development impacts, and wholesale electricity price savings. Compared to the summary of RPS costs, the summary of RPS benefits is more limited, as relatively few states have undertaken detailed benefits estimates, and then only for a few types of potential policy impacts. In some cases, the same impacts may be captured in the assessment of incremental costs. For these reasons, and because methodologies and level of rigor vary widely, direct comparisons between the estimates of benefits and costs are challenging.

Estimation of cellular manufacturing cost components using simulation and activity-based costing

OpenAIRE

Paul Savory; Robert Williams

2010-01-01

It can be difficult estimating all of the cost components that are attributed to a machined part.  This problem is more pronounced when a factory uses group technology manufacturing cells as opposed to a functional or process layout of a job shop.  This paper describes how activity-based costing (ABC) concepts can be integrated into a discrete-event simulation model of a U-shaped manufacturing cell producing a part family with four members.  The simulation model generates detai...

Estimation of cellular manufacturing cost components using simulation and activity-based costing

OpenAIRE

Savory, Paul

2010-01-01

It can be difficult estimating all of the cost components that are attributed to a machined part. This problem is more pronounced when a factory uses group technology manufacturing cells as opposed to a functional or process layout of a job shop. This paper describes how activity-based costing (ABC) concepts can be integrated into a discrete-event simulation model of a U-shaped manufacturing cell producing a part family with four members. The simulation model generates detailed Bills of Ac...

Cost estimation of the future harvest as agricultural loan collateral

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vnukova, N. N.

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of this work is to attempt developing recommendations which may improve the overall banking technique of future cropping cost estimating. Objectives that have been set to achieve this aim are: to analyze alternative techniques of future cropping cost estimating; to perform calculation according to the selected techniques for 10 agricultural companies from different regions of Ukraine; to compare the techniques by means of hierarchy analysis method.

Computer software to estimate timber harvesting system production, cost, and revenue

Science.gov (United States)

Dr. John E. Baumgras; Dr. Chris B. LeDoux

1992-01-01

Large variations in timber harvesting cost and revenue can result from the differences between harvesting systems, the variable attributes of harvesting sites and timber stands, or changing product markets. Consequently, system and site specific estimates of production rates and costs are required to improve estimates of harvesting revenue. This paper describes...

Estimation of Damage Costs Associated with Flood Events

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, T. A.; Wauthier, C.; Zipp, K.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the possibility of creating a mathematical function that enables the estimation of flood-damage costs. We begin by examining the costs associated with past flood events in the United States. The data on these tropical storms and hurricanes are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. With the location, extent of flooding, and damage reparation costs identified, we analyze variables such as: number of inches rained, land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. We seek to identify the leading drivers of high flood-damage costs and understand which variables play a large role in the costliness of these weather events. Upon completion of our mathematical analysis, we turn out attention to the 2017 natural disaster of Texas. We divide the region, as we did above, by land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. Then, we overlay the number of inches rained in those regions onto the divided landscape and apply our function. We hope to use these findings to estimate the potential flood-damage costs of Hurricane Harvey. This information is then transformed into a hazard map that could provide citizens and businesses of flood-stricken zones additional resources for their insurance selection process.

Cost estimation for solid waste management in industrialising regions – Precedents, problems and prospects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parthan, Shantha R.; Milke, Mark W.; Wilson, David C.; Cocks, John H.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► We review cost estimation approaches for solid waste management. ► Unit cost method and benchmarking techniques used in industrialising regions (IR). ► Variety in scope, quality and stakeholders makes cost estimation challenging in IR. ► Integrate waste flow and cost models using cost functions to improve cost planning. - Abstract: The importance of cost planning for solid waste management (SWM) in industrialising regions (IR) is not well recognised. The approaches used to estimate costs of SWM can broadly be classified into three categories – the unit cost method, benchmarking techniques and developing cost models using sub-approaches such as cost and production function analysis. These methods have been developed into computer programmes with varying functionality and utility. IR mostly use the unit cost and benchmarking approach to estimate their SWM costs. The models for cost estimation, on the other hand, are used at times in industrialised countries, but not in IR. Taken together, these approaches could be viewed as precedents that can be modified appropriately to suit waste management systems in IR. The main challenges (or problems) one might face while attempting to do so are a lack of cost data, and a lack of quality for what data do exist. There are practical benefits to planners in IR where solid waste problems are critical and budgets are limited.

Predicting Software Projects Cost Estimation Based on Mining Historical Data

OpenAIRE

Najadat, Hassan; Alsmadi, Izzat; Shboul, Yazan

2012-01-01

In this research, a hybrid cost estimation model is proposed to produce a realistic prediction model that takes into consideration software project, product, process, and environmental elements. A cost estimation dataset is built from a large number of open source projects. Those projects are divided into three domains: communication, finance, and game projects. Several data mining techniques are used to classify software projects in terms of their development complexity. Data mining techniqu...

Applying Insights from Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) to Improve DoD Cost Estimation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Angelis, Diana I; Dillard, John; Franck, Raymond; Melese, Francois

2007-01-01

The purpose of this report is to explore the possibility of improving DoD cost estimation methods by including explanatory variables that capture the coordination and motivation problems associated with the program...

Nuclear generating station and heavy water plant cost estimates for strategy studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Archinoff, G.H.

1979-07-01

Nuclear generating station capital, operating and maintenance costs are basic input data for strategy analyses of alternate nuclear fuel cycles. This report presents estimates of these costs for natural uranium CANDU stations, CANDU stations operating on advanced fuel cycles, and liquid metal fast breeder reactors. Cost estimates for heavy water plants are also presented. The results show that station capital costs for advanced fuel cycles are not expected to be significantly greater than those for natural uranium stations. LMFBR capital costs are expected to be 25-30 percent greater than for CANDU's. (auth)

Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle Cost Estimates for Advanced Fuel Cycle Studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, Thomas

2013-01-01

Presentation Outline: • Why Do I Need a Cost Basis?; • History of the Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis; • Description of the Cost Basis; • Current Work; • Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle Applications; • Sample Fuel Cycle Cost Estimate Analysis; • Future Work

The application of cost behaviour and estimation in organisational ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Based on these findings, the paper recommends among others the need for the regular training of the management accountant in the modern methods of cost estimation, the need for accurate keeping of records of transactions and for long term forecasting of cost, management should rely on quantitative factors and ...

COSTMODL - AN AUTOMATED SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT COST ESTIMATION TOOL

Science.gov (United States)

Roush, G. B.

1994-01-01

The cost of developing computer software consumes an increasing portion of many organizations' budgets. As this trend continues, the capability to estimate the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product becomes increasingly important. COSTMODL is an automated software development estimation tool which fulfills this need. Assimilating COSTMODL to any organization's particular environment can yield significant reduction in the risk of cost overruns and failed projects. This user-customization capability is unmatched by any other available estimation tool. COSTMODL accepts a description of a software product to be developed and computes estimates of the effort required to produce it, the calendar schedule required, and the distribution of effort and staffing as a function of the defined set of development life-cycle phases. This is accomplished by the five cost estimation algorithms incorporated into COSTMODL: the NASA-developed KISS model; the Basic, Intermediate, and Ada COCOMO models; and the Incremental Development model. This choice affords the user the ability to handle project complexities ranging from small, relatively simple projects to very large projects. Unique to COSTMODL is the ability to redefine the life-cycle phases of development and the capability to display a graphic representation of the optimum organizational structure required to develop the subject project, along with required staffing levels and skills. The program is menu-driven and mouse sensitive with an extensive context-sensitive help system that makes it possible for a new user to easily install and operate the program and to learn the fundamentals of cost estimation without having prior training or separate documentation. The implementation of these functions, along with the customization feature, into one program makes COSTMODL unique within the industry. COSTMODL was written for IBM PC compatibles, and it requires Turbo Pascal 5.0 or later and Turbo

Estimating Power Outage Cost based on a Survey for Industrial Customers

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshida, Yoshikuni; Matsuhashi, Ryuji

A survey was conducted on power outage cost for industrial customers. 5139 factories, which are designated energy management factories in Japan, answered their power consumption and the loss of production value due to the power outage in an hour in summer weekday. The median of unit cost of power outage of whole sectors is estimated as 672 yen/kWh. The sector of services for amusement and hobbies and the sector of manufacture of information and communication electronics equipment relatively have higher unit cost of power outage. Direct damage cost from power outage in whole sectors reaches 77 billion yen. Then utilizing input-output analysis, we estimated indirect damage cost that is caused by the repercussion of production halt. Indirect damage cost in whole sectors reaches 91 billion yen. The sector of wholesale and retail trade has the largest direct damage cost. The sector of manufacture of transportation equipment has the largest indirect damage cost.

Estimating design costs for first-of-a-kind projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banerjee, Bakul; Fermilab

2006-01-01

Modern scientific facilities are often outcomes of projects that are first-of-a-kind, that is, minimal historical data are available for project costs and schedules. However, at Fermilab, there was an opportunity to execute two similar projects consecutively. In this paper, a comparative study of the design costs for these two projects is presented using earned value methodology. This study provides some insights into how to estimate the cost of a replicated project

Cost Estimating in DoD: Current Status, Trends, and What the Future Holds

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Nussbaum, Daniel A

2005-01-01

(1) Current Status: Baseline analysis of current cost estimating community, including which organizations are responsible for developing and reviewing cost estimates, how many personnel there are, what...

ESTIMATING THE COST OF AGRICULTURAL MORBIDITY IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Nathan M; Scott, Erika E; Krupa, Nicole; Jenkins, Paul L

2018-01-29

This article provides an estimate for the economic costs of agricultural injuries sustained in the states of Maine and New Hampshire between the years 2008 and 2010. The authors used a novel dataset of 562 agriculturally related occupational injuries, and cost estimates were generated using the CDC's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS). Individual cases from the dataset that did not match the query options for WISQARS were excluded. Of the 562 agricultural injuries identified in the dataset, 361 met the WISQARS criteria. The remaining 201 cases were judged to be incompatible with the WISQARS query criteria. Significant differences (p 0.0001) were found between the median costs of eight types of injury. Amputations (median = $70,077) and fractures (median = $13,365) were found to be the most expensive types of injury. The total cost of the 361 injuries for which estimates were available was $6,342,270. Injuries that reportedly involved machinery were found to be more expensive than injuries caused by animals. This article highlights the difference in the total cost of injury between types of injuries and demonstrates that agricultural injuries were a significant economic burden for Maine and New Hampshire for the years 2008-2010. These data can be used to direct future preventive efforts. Finally, this article suggests that WISQARS is a powerful tool for estimating injury costs without requiring access to treatment or billing records. Copyright© by the American Society of Agricultural Engineers.

ETE-EVAL: a methodology for D and D cost estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decobert, G.; Robic, S.; Vanel, V.

2008-01-01

In compliance with Article 20 of the sustainable radioactive materials and waste management act dated 28 June 2006, the CEA and AREVA are required every three years to revise the cost of decommissioning their facilities and to provide the necessary assets by constituting a dedicated fund. For the 2007 revision the CEA used ETE-EVAL V5. Similarly, AREVA reevaluated the cost of decontaminating and dismantling its facilities at La Hague, as the previous estimate in 2004 did not take into account the complete cleanup of all the structural work. ETE-EVAL V5 is a computer application designed to estimate the cost of decontamination and dismantling of basic nuclear installations (INB). It has been qualified by Bureau Veritas and audited. ETE-EVAL V5 has become the official software for cost assessment of CEA civilian and AREVA decommissioning projects. It has been used by the DPAD (Decontamination and Dismantling Projects Department) cost assessment group to estimate the cost of decommissioning some thirty facilities (cost update on completion for the dedicated fund for dismantling civilian CEA facilities) and by AREVA to estimate the cost of decommissioning its fuel cycle back-end facilities. Some necessary modifications are now being implemented to allow for the specific aspects of fuel cycle front-end facilities. The computational method is based on physical, radiological and waste inventories following a particular methodology, and on interviews with operating personnel to compile ratios and financial data (operating cost, etc.) and enter them in a database called GREEN (from the French acronym for Management Ratios for Assessment of Nuclear Facilities). ETE-EVAL V5 comprises the cost assessment module and GREEN database. It has been enriched with the lessons learned from experience, and can be adapted as necessary to meet installation-specific requirements. The cost assessment module allows the user to estimate decommissioning costs once the inventory has been

A parametric cost model for estimating operating and support costs of US Navy (non-nuclear) surface ships

OpenAIRE

Brandt, James M.

1999-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited With few effective decision-making tools to assess the affordability of major weapon systems, management of total ownership costs is continually misunderstood. Cost analysis provides a quick and reliable assessment of affordability. Because there is no standardized method for calculating reliable estimates of operating and support (O&S) costs (the principal component of total ownership cost), this thesis formulates a parametric cost mo...

Treatment Cost Analysis Tool (TCAT) for estimating costs of outpatient treatment services.

Science.gov (United States)

Flynn, Patrick M; Broome, Kirk M; Beaston-Blaakman, Aaron; Knight, Danica K; Horgan, Constance M; Shepard, Donald S

2009-02-01

A Microsoft Excel-based workbook designed for research analysts to use in a national study was retooled for treatment program directors and financial officers to allocate, analyze, and estimate outpatient treatment costs in the U.S. This instrument can also be used as a planning and management tool to optimize resources and forecast the impact of future changes in staffing, client flow, program design, and other resources. The Treatment Cost Analysis Tool (TCAT) automatically provides feedback and generates summaries and charts using comparative data from a national sample of non-methadone outpatient providers. TCAT is being used by program staff to capture and allocate both economic and accounting costs, and outpatient service costs are reported for a sample of 70 programs. Costs for an episode of treatment in regular, intensive, and mixed types of outpatient treatment were $882, $1310, and $1381 respectively (based on 20% trimmed means and 2006 dollars). An hour of counseling cost $64 in regular, $85 intensive, and $86 mixed. Group counseling hourly costs per client were $8, $11, and $10 respectively for regular, intensive, and mixed. Future directions include use of a web-based interview version, much like some of the commercially available tax preparation software tools, and extensions for use in other modalities of treatment.

State estimation and control for low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles

CERN Document Server

Hajiyev, Chingiz; Yenal Vural, Sıtkı

2015-01-01

This book discusses state estimation and control procedures for a low-cost unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The authors consider the use of robust adaptive Kalman filter algorithms and demonstrate their advantages over the optimal Kalman filter in the context of the difficult and varied environments in which UAVs may be employed. Fault detection and isolation (FDI) and data fusion for UAV air-data systems are also investigated, and control algorithms, including the classical, optimal, and fuzzy controllers, are given for the UAV. The performance of different control methods is investigated and the results compared. State Estimation and Control of Low-Cost Unmanned Aerial Vehicles covers all the important issues for designing a guidance, navigation and control (GNC) system of a low-cost UAV. It proposes significant new approaches that can be exploited by GNC system designers in the future and also reviews the current literature. The state estimation, control and FDI methods are illustrated by examples and MATLAB...

Aircraft ground damage and the use of predictive models to estimate costs

Science.gov (United States)

Kromphardt, Benjamin D.

Aircraft are frequently involved in ground damage incidents, and repair costs are often accepted as part of doing business. The Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) estimates ground damage to cost operators $5-10 billion annually. Incident reports, documents from manufacturers or regulatory agencies, and other resources were examined to better understand the problem of ground damage in aviation. Major contributing factors were explained, and two versions of a computer-based model were developed to project costs and show what is possible. One objective was to determine if the models could match the FSF's estimate. Another objective was to better understand cost savings that could be realized by efforts to further mitigate the occurrence of ground incidents. Model effectiveness was limited by access to official data, and assumptions were used if data was not available. However, the models were determined to sufficiently estimate the costs of ground incidents.

A REVIEW OF ESTIMATION OF SOFTWARE PRODUCTS DEVELOPMENT COSTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edin Osmanbegović

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In the modern business and management of business processes, the standardization of procedures allows the creation of added value, increasing competitiveness and success in the business of an organization. Evaluation of the budget for software development is crucial to the success of an IT project, because the inability to make a realistic assessment leads to inadequate project plans, customer dissatisfaction, poor quality of software products, and reduced profits. In order to minimize such situations, making accurate and reliable software cost estimation should be carried out at all stages of the project life cycle. Although hundreds of research articles focusing on the application of different methods of budget estimates of the software product have been published so far, there is no comprehensive review of the current situation or review of research trends in the budget estimates of the software product. This paper aims to create a framework for estimation of costs of development of software products by providing an overview of the most influential researchers, the most influential articles published in the WoS database, the most used keywords for searching the articles, as well as a review of the estimation techniques used in budget estimates of the software product.

Estimating the costs of induced abortion in Uganda: A model-based analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background The demand for induced abortions in Uganda is high despite legal and moral proscriptions. Abortion seekers usually go to illegal, hidden clinics where procedures are performed in unhygienic environments by under-trained practitioners. These abortions, which are usually unsafe, lead to a high rate of severe complications and use of substantial, scarce healthcare resources. This study was performed to estimate the costs associated with induced abortions in Uganda. Methods A decision tree was developed to represent the consequences of induced abortion and estimate the costs of an average case. Data were obtained from a primary chart abstraction study, an on-going prospective study, and the published literature. Societal costs, direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, indirect (productivity) costs, costs to patients, and costs to the government were estimated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to account for uncertainty. Results The average societal cost per induced abortion (95% credibility range) was $177 ($140-$223). This is equivalent to $64 million in annual national costs. Of this, the average direct medical cost was $65 ($49-86) and the average direct non-medical cost was $19 ($16-$23). The average indirect cost was $92 ($57-$139). Patients incurred $62 ($46-$83) on average while government incurred $14 ($10-$20) on average. Conclusion Induced abortions are associated with substantial costs in Uganda and patients incur the bulk of the healthcare costs. This reinforces the case made by other researchers--that efforts by the government to reduce unsafe abortions by increasing contraceptive coverage or providing safe, legal abortions are critical. PMID:22145859

Estimating healthcare costs of acute gastroenteritis and human campylobacteriosis in Switzerland.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmutz, C; Mäusezahl, D; Bless, P J; Hatz, C; Schwenkglenks, M; Urbinello, D

2017-03-01

Rising numbers of campylobacteriosis case notifications in Switzerland resulted in an increased attention to acute gastroenteritis (AG) in general. Patients with a laboratory-confirmed Campylobacter infection perceive their disease as severe and around 15% of these patients are hospitalized. This study aimed at estimating healthcare costs due to AG and campylobacteriosis in Switzerland. We used official health statistics, data from different studies and expert opinion for estimating individual treatment costs for patients with different illness severity and for extrapolating overall costs due to AG and campylobacteriosis. We estimated that total Swiss healthcare costs resulting from these diseases amount to €29-45 million annually. Data suggest that patients with AG consulting a physician without a stool diagnostic test account for €9·0-24·2 million, patients with a negative stool test result for Campylobacter spp. for €12·3 million, patients testing positive for Campylobacter spp. for €1·8 million and hospitalized campylobacteriosis patients for €6·5 million/year. Healthcare costs of campylobacteriosis are high and most likely increasing in Switzerland considering that campylobacteriosis case notifications steadily increased in the past decade. Costs and potential cost savings for the healthcare system should be considered when designing sectorial and cross-sectorial interventions to reduce the burden of human campylobacteriosis in Switzerland.

Patient-physician discussions about costs: definitions and impact on cost conversation incidence estimates.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Wynn G; Hesson, Ashley; Davis, J Kelly; Kirby, Christine; Williamson, Lillie D; Barnett, Jamison A; Ubel, Peter A

2016-03-31

Nearly one in three Americans are financially burdened by their medical expenses. To mitigate financial distress, experts recommend routine physician-patient cost conversations. However, the content and incidence of these conversations are unclear, and rigorous definitions are lacking. We sought to develop a novel set of cost conversation definitions, and determine the impact of definitional variation on cost conversation incidence in three clinical settings. Retrospective, mixed-methods analysis of transcribed dialogue from 1,755 outpatient encounters for routine clinical management of breast cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, and depression, occurring between 2010-2014. We developed cost conversation definitions using summative content analysis. Transcripts were evaluated independently by at least two members of our multi-disciplinary team to determine cost conversation incidence using each definition. Incidence estimates were compared using Pearson's Chi-Square Tests. Three cost conversation definitions emerged from our analysis: (a) Out-of-Pocket (OoP) Cost--discussion of the patient's OoP costs for a healthcare service; (b) Cost/Coverage--discussion of the patient's OoP costs or insurance coverage; (c) Cost of Illness- discussion of financial costs or insurance coverage related to health or healthcare. These definitions were hierarchical; OoP Cost was a subset of Cost/Coverage, which was a subset of Cost of Illness. In each clinical setting, we observed significant variation in the incidence of cost conversations when using different definitions; breast oncology: 16, 22, 24% of clinic visits contained cost conversation (OOP Cost, Cost/Coverage, Cost of Illness, respectively; P cost conversation varied significantly depending on the definition used. Our findings and proposed definitions may assist in retrospective interpretation and prospective design of investigations on this topic.

Life cycle cost estimation and systems analysis of Waste Management Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shropshire, D.; Feizollahi, F.

1995-01-01

This paper presents general conclusions from application of a system cost analysis method developed by the United States Department of Energy (DOE), Waste Management Division (WM), Waste Management Facilities Costs Information (WMFCI) program. The WMFCI method has been used to assess the DOE complex-wide management of radioactive, hazardous, and mixed wastes. The Idaho Engineering Laboratory, along with its subcontractor Morrison Knudsen Corporation, has been responsible for developing and applying the WMFCI cost analysis method. The cost analyses are based on system planning level life-cycle costs. The costs for life-cycle waste management activities estimated by WMFCI range from bench-scale testing and developmental work needed to design and construct a facility, facility permitting and startup, operation and maintenance, to the final decontamination, decommissioning, and closure of the facility. For DOE complex-wide assessments, cost estimates have been developed at the treatment, storage, and disposal module level and rolled up for each DOE installation. Discussions include conclusions reached by studies covering complex-wide consolidation of treatment, storage, and disposal facilities, system cost modeling, system costs sensitivity, system cost optimization, and the integration of WM waste with the environmental restoration and decontamination and decommissioning secondary wastes

IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Cost Estimate Summary (Leveraged NDC Case).

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, James M.; Prescott, Ryan; Dawson, Jericah M.; Huelskamp, Robert M.

2014-11-01

Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM cost estimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, based on leveraging a fully funded, Sandia executed NDC Modernization project. This report provides the ROM cost estimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM cost estimate. ROM Cost Estimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM cost estimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved cost estimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

A Descriptive Evaluation of Automated Software Cost-Estimation Models,

Science.gov (United States)

1986-10-01

Version 1.03D) * PCOC (Version 7.01) - PRICE S • SLIM (Version 1.1) • SoftCost (Version 5. 1) * SPQR /20 (Version 1. 1) - WICOMO (Version 1.3) These...produce detailed GANTT and PERT charts. SPQR /20 is based on a cost model developed at ITT. In addition to cost, schedule, and staffing estimates, it...cases and test runs required, and the effectiveness of pre-test and test activities. SPQR /20 also predicts enhancement and maintenance activities. C

Estimating the Cost of Youth Disengagement in New Zealand

OpenAIRE

Gail Pacheco; Jessica Dye

2013-01-01

Youth exclusion, disengagement, and overall underutilisation in the labour market has short term costs to the economy, as well as long term impacts on society. In this research we project the loss to productivity, measured in foregone wages, and the expected cost to public finances for NZ and Auckland youth aged 15-24 not in employment, education, or training (collectively known as NEET). We estimate the expected per capita cost of each NEET youth in NZ is approximately $26,847 over the next ...

Methods for cost estimation in software project management

Science.gov (United States)

Briciu, C. V.; Filip, I.; Indries, I. I.

2016-02-01

The speed in which the processes used in software development field have changed makes it very difficult the task of forecasting the overall costs for a software project. By many researchers, this task has been considered unachievable, but there is a group of scientist for which this task can be solved using the already known mathematical methods (e.g. multiple linear regressions) and the new techniques as genetic programming and neural networks. The paper presents a solution for building a model for the cost estimation models in the software project management using genetic algorithms starting from the PROMISE datasets related COCOMO 81 model. In the first part of the paper, a summary of the major achievements in the research area of finding a model for estimating the overall project costs is presented together with the description of the existing software development process models. In the last part, a basic proposal of a mathematical model of a genetic programming is proposed including here the description of the chosen fitness function and chromosome representation. The perspective of model described it linked with the current reality of the software development considering as basis the software product life cycle and the current challenges and innovations in the software development area. Based on the author's experiences and the analysis of the existing models and product lifecycle it was concluded that estimation models should be adapted with the new technologies and emerging systems and they depend largely by the chosen software development method.

Validation of generic cost estimates for construction-related activities at nuclear power plants: Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simion, G.; Sciacca, F.; Claiborne, E.; Watlington, B.; Riordan, B.; McLaughlin, M.

1988-05-01

This report represents a validation study of the cost methodologies and quantitative factors derived in Labor Productivity Adjustment Factors and Generic Methodology for Estimating the Labor Cost Associated with the Removal of Hardware, Materials, and Structures From Nuclear Power Plants. This cost methodology was developed to support NRC analysts in determining generic estimates of removal, installation, and total labor costs for construction-related activities at nuclear generating stations. In addition to the validation discussion, this report reviews the generic cost analysis methodology employed. It also discusses each of the individual cost factors used in estimating the costs of physical modifications at nuclear power plants. The generic estimating approach presented uses the /open quotes/greenfield/close quotes/ or new plant construction installation costs compiled in the Energy Economic Data Base (EEDB) as a baseline. These baseline costs are then adjusted to account for labor productivity, radiation fields, learning curve effects, and impacts on ancillary systems or components. For comparisons of estimated vs actual labor costs, approximately four dozen actual cost data points (as reported by 14 nuclear utilities) were obtained. Detailed background information was collected on each individual data point to give the best understanding possible so that the labor productivity factors, removal factors, etc., could judiciously be chosen. This study concludes that cost estimates that are typically within 40% of the actual values can be generated by prudently using the methodologies and cost factors investigated herein

Cost-effectiveness estimates for antenatal HIV testing in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rozenbaum, M. H.; Verweel, G.; Folkerts, D. K. F.; Dronkers, F.; van den Hoek, J. A. R.; Hartwig, N. G.; de Groot, R.; Postma, M. J.

2008-01-01

This paper provides an estimation of the lifetime health-care cost of HIV-infected children and an update of the cost-effectiveness of universal HIV-screening of pregnant women in Amsterdam (The Netherlands). During 2003-2005, we collected data concerning the prevalence of newly diagnosed

Life cycle cost and risk estimation of environmental management options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.

1996-01-01

The evaluation process is demonstrated in this paper through comparative analysis of two alternative scenarios identified for the management of the alpha-contaminated fixed low-level waste currently stored at INEL. These two scenarios, the Base Case and the Delay Case, are realistic and based on actual data, but are not intended to exactly match actual plans currently being developed at INEL. Life cycle cost estimates were developed for both scenarios using the System Cost Model; resulting costs are presented and compared. Life cycle costs are shown as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Although there are some short-term cost savings for the Delay Case, cumulative life cycle costs eventually become much higher than costs for the Base Case over the same period of time, due mainly to the storage and repackaging necessary to accommodate the longer Delay Case schedule. Life cycle risk estimates were prepared using a new risk analysis method adapted to the System Cost Model architecture for automated, systematic cost/risk applications. Relative risk summaries are presented for both scenarios as a function of time and also aggregated by pretreatment, treatment, storage, and disposal activities. Relative risk of the Delay Case is shown to be higher than that of the Base Case. Finally, risk and cost results are combined to show how the collective information can be used to help identify opportunities for risk or cost reduction and highlight areas where risk reduction can be achieved most economically

Cost estimation using ministerial regulation of public work no. 11/2013 in construction projects

Science.gov (United States)

Arumsari, Putri; Juliastuti; Khalifah Al'farisi, Muhammad

2017-12-01

One of the first tasks in starting a construction project is to estimate the total cost of building a project. In Indonesia there are several standards that are used to calculate the cost estimation of a project. One of the standards used in based on the Ministerial Regulation of Public Work No. 11/2013. However in a construction project, contractor often has their own cost estimation based on their own calculation. This research aimed to compare the construction project total cost using calculation based on the Ministerial Regulation of Public Work No. 11/2013 against the contractor’s calculation. Two projects were used as case study to compare the results. The projects were a 4 storey building located in Pantai Indah Kapuk area (West Jakarta) and a warehouse located in Sentul (West Java) which was built by 2 different contractors. The cost estimation from both contractors’ calculation were compared to the one based on the Ministerial Regulation of Public Work No. 11/2013. It is found that there were differences between the two calculation around 1.80 % - 3.03% in total cost, in which the cost estimation based on Ministerial Regulation was higher than the contractors’ calculations.

IVF cycle cost estimation using Activity Based Costing and Monte Carlo simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cassettari, Lucia; Mosca, Marco; Mosca, Roberto; Rolando, Fabio; Costa, Mauro; Pisaturo, Valerio

2016-03-01

The Authors present a new methodological approach in stochastic regime to determine the actual costs of an healthcare process. The paper specifically shows the application of the methodology for the determination of the cost of an Assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment in Italy. The reason of this research comes from the fact that deterministic regime is inadequate to implement an accurate estimate of the cost of this particular treatment. In fact the durations of the different activities involved are unfixed and described by means of frequency distributions. Hence the need to determine in addition to the mean value of the cost, the interval within which it is intended to vary with a known confidence level. Consequently the cost obtained for each type of cycle investigated (in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer with or without intracytoplasmic sperm injection), shows tolerance intervals around the mean value sufficiently restricted as to make the data obtained statistically robust and therefore usable also as reference for any benchmark with other Countries. It should be noted that under a methodological point of view the approach was rigorous. In fact it was used both the technique of Activity Based Costing for determining the cost of individual activities of the process both the Monte Carlo simulation, with control of experimental error, for the construction of the tolerance intervals on the final result.

The relationship between cost estimates reliability and BIM adoption: SEM analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, N. A. A.; Idris, N. H.; Ramli, H.; Rooshdi, R. R. Raja Muhammad; Sahamir, S. R.

2018-02-01

This paper presents the usage of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) approach in analysing the effects of Building Information Modelling (BIM) technology adoption in improving the reliability of cost estimates. Based on the questionnaire survey results, SEM analysis using SPSS-AMOS application examined the relationships between BIM-improved information and cost estimates reliability factors, leading to BIM technology adoption. Six hypotheses were established prior to SEM analysis employing two types of SEM models, namely the Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) model and full structural model. The SEM models were then validated through the assessment on their uni-dimensionality, validity, reliability, and fitness index, in line with the hypotheses tested. The final SEM model fit measures are: P-value=0.000, RMSEA=0.0790.90, TLI=0.956>0.90, NFI=0.935>0.90 and ChiSq/df=2.259; indicating that the overall index values achieved the required level of model fitness. The model supports all the hypotheses evaluated, confirming that all relationship exists amongst the constructs are positive and significant. Ultimately, the analysis verified that most of the respondents foresee better understanding of project input information through BIM visualization, its reliable database and coordinated data, in developing more reliable cost estimates. They also perceive to accelerate their cost estimating task through BIM adoption.

First estimates of the potential cost and cost saving of protecting childhood hearing from damage caused by congenital CMV infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Eleri J; Gray, Joanne; Luck, Suzanne; Atkinson, Claire; Embleton, Nicholas D; Kadambari, Seilesh; Davis, Adrian; Griffiths, Paul; Sharland, Mike; Berrington, Janet E; Clark, Julia E

2015-11-01

Congenital cytomegalovirus (cCMV) is an important cause of childhood deafness, which is modifiable if diagnosed within the first month of life. Targeted screening of infants who do not pass their newborn hearing screening tests in England is a feasible approach to identify and treat cases to improve hearing outcome. To conduct a cost analysis of targeted screening and subsequent treatment for cCMV-related sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) in an, otherwise, asymptomatic infant, from the perspective of the UK National Health Service (NHS). Using data from the newborn hearing screening programme (NHSP) in England and a recent study of targeted screening for cCMV using salivary swabs within the NHSP, we estimate the cost (in UK pounds (£)) to the NHS. The cost of screening (time, swabs and PCR), assessing, treating and following up cases is calculated. The cost per case of preventing hearing deterioration secondary to cCMV with targeted screening is calculated. The cost of identifying, assessing and treating a case of cCMV-related SNHL through targeted cCMV screening is estimated to be £6683. The cost of improving hearing outcome for an infant with cCMV-related SNHL through targeted screening and treatment is estimated at £14 202. The costs of targeted screening for cCMV using salivary swabs integrated within NHSP resulted in an estimate of cost per case that compares favourably with other screening programmes. This could be used in future studies to estimate the full economic value in terms of incremental costs and incremental health benefits. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

1988-08-01

This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs

The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

1988-08-01

This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs.

Application of Boosting Regression Trees to Preliminary Cost Estimation in Building Construction Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoonseok Shin

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project.

A Deterministic and Probabilistic Cost Estimate for Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ha, Gag Kyeon; Kwon, Jong Jooh

2005-01-01

There are many cost estimate methodologies for some future projects. Revenue Requirement Method (RRM), Cost/Benefit Ratio method, Return on Investment, Pay Back Period Method. etc. This paper uses the RRM method which is the amount of revenue that must be collected from customers to compensate a utility for all expenditures associated with implementing an alternative decision involving money. This RRM can be combined with a random sampling statistical simulation computer program to calculated the Probability Distribution Functions(PDF) of the cost elements for generating cost. EPRI developed this combined statistical techniques into RRM, named Statistical Revenue Requirement Method(SRRM). The statistical technique is a random sampling statistical simulation. The simulation tool is usually Monte Carlo sampling, Latin Latin Hypercube sampling, etc. SRRM is used to estimating for future power plants, apartments, hospital, marketing, etc. In this paper, RRM calculation and SRRM simulation have been practiced for PWR1400MWe nuclear power plants

Implementation of the ANNs ensembles in macro-BIM cost estimates of buildings' floor structural frames

Science.gov (United States)

Juszczyk, Michał

2018-04-01

This paper reports some results of the studies on the use of artificial intelligence tools for the purposes of cost estimation based on building information models. A problem of the cost estimates based on the building information models on a macro level supported by the ensembles of artificial neural networks is concisely discussed. In the course of the research a regression model has been built for the purposes of cost estimation of buildings' floor structural frames, as higher level elements. Building information models are supposed to serve as a repository of data used for the purposes of cost estimation. The core of the model is the ensemble of neural networks. The developed model allows the prediction of cost estimates with satisfactory accuracy.

Estimated cost of asthma in outpatient treatment: a real-world study

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Eduardo; Caetano, Rosangela; Werneck, Guilherme Loureiro; Bregman, Maurício; Araújo, Denizar Vianna; Rufino, Rogério

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost of diagnosis and treatment of asthma. METHODS We used the perspective of society. We sequentially included for 12 months, in 2011-2012, 117 individuals over five years of age who were treated for asthma in the Pneumology and Allergy-Immunology Services of the Piquet Carneiro Polyclinic, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. All of them were interviewed twice with a six-month interval for data collection, covering 12 months. The cost units were identified and valued according to defined methods. We carried out a sensitivity analysis and applied statistical methods with a significance level of 5% for cost comparisons between subgroups. RESULTS The study consisted of 108 patients, and 73.8% of them were women. Median age was 49.5 years. Rhinitis was present in 83.3% of the individuals, and more than half were overweight or obese. Mean family income was U$915.90/month (SD = 879.12). Most workers and students had absenteeism related to asthma. Total annual mean cost was U$1,291.20/patient (SD = 1,298.57). The cost related to isolated asthma was U$1,155.43/patient-year (SD = 1,305.58). Obese, severe, and uncontrolled asthmatic patients had higher costs than non-obese, non-severe, and controlled asthmatics, respectively. Severity and control level were independently associated with higher cost (p = 0.001 and 0.000, respectively). The direct cost accounted for 82.3% of the estimated total cost. The cost of medications for asthma accounted for 62.2% of the direct costs of asthma. CONCLUSIONS Asthma medications, environmental control measures, and long-term health leaves had the greatest potential impact on total cost variation. The results are an estimate of the cost of treating asthma at a secondary level in the Brazilian Unified Health System, assuming that the treatment used represents the ideal approach to the disease. PMID:29641652

Controlling Campylobacter in the chicken meat chain; Estimation of intervention costs

OpenAIRE

Mangen, M.J.J.; Havelaar, A.H.; Poppe, K.J.

2005-01-01

Campylobacter infections are a serious public health problem in the Netherlands. As a part of the CARMA project, this study focus on the estimation of the potential direct costs related to the implementation of various intervention measures to control campylobacters in the chicken meat chain. Costs were estimated using a second-order stochastic simulation model. Treating only positively tested flocks is far cheaper than treating all flocks. The implementation of equipment to reduce faecal lea...

A Semantics-Based Approach to Construction Cost Estimating

Science.gov (United States)

Niknam, Mehrdad

2015-01-01

A construction project requires collaboration of different organizations such as owner, designer, contractor, and resource suppliers. These organizations need to exchange information to improve their teamwork. Understanding the information created in other organizations requires specialized human resources. Construction cost estimating is one of…

Estimating Resource Costs of Levy Campaigns in Five Ohio School Districts

Science.gov (United States)

Ingle, W. Kyle; Petroff, Ruth Ann; Johnson, Paul A.

2011-01-01

Using Levin and McEwan's (2001) "ingredients method," this study identified the major activities and associated costs of school levy campaigns in five districts. The ingredients were divided into one of five cost categories--human resources, facilities, fees, marketing, and supplies. As to overall costs of the campaigns, estimates ranged…

Cost estimates for near-term depolyment of advanced traffic management systems. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stevens, S.S.; Chin, S.M.

1993-02-15

The objective of this study is to provide cost est engineering, design, installation, operation and maintenance of Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS) in the largest 75 metropolitan areas in the United States. This report gives estimates for deployment costs for ATMS in the next five years, subject to the qualifications and caveats set out in following paragraphs. The report considers infrastructure components required to realize fully a functional ATMS over each of two highway networks (as discussed in the Section describing our general assumptions) under each of the four architectures identified in the MITRE Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems (IVHS) Architecture studies. The architectures are summarized in this report in Table 2. Estimates are given for eight combinations of highway networks and architectures. We estimate that it will cost between $8.5 Billion (minimal network) and $26 Billion (augmented network) to proceed immediately with deployment of ATMS in the largest 75 metropolitan areas. Costs are given in 1992 dollars, and are not adjusted for future inflation. Our estimates are based partially on completed project costs, which have been adjusted to 1992 dollars. We assume that a particular architecture will be chosen; projected costs are broken by architecture.

Development of a Cost Estimation Process for Human Systems Integration Practitioners During the Analysis of Alternatives

Science.gov (United States)

2010-12-01

processes. Novice estimators must often use of these complicated cost estimation tools (e.g., ACEIT , SEER-H, SEER-S, PRICE-H, PRICE-S, etc.) until...However, the thesis will leverage the processes embedded in cost estimation tools such as the Automated Cost Estimating Integration Tool ( ACEIT ) and the

Risk Consideration and Cost Estimation in Construction Projects Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudius A. Peleskei

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Construction projects usually involve high investments. It is, therefore, a risky adventure for companies as actual costs of construction projects nearly always exceed the planed scenario. This is due to the various risks and the large uncertainty existing within this industry. Determination and quantification of risks and their impact on project costs within the construction industry is described to be one of the most difficult areas. This paper analyses how the cost of construction projects can be estimated using Monte Carlo Simulation. It investigates if the different cost elements in a construction project follow a specific probability distribution. The research examines the effect of correlation between different project costs on the result of the Monte Carlo Simulation. The paper finds out that Monte Carlo Simulation can be a helpful tool for risk managers and can be used for cost estimation of construction projects. The research has shown that cost distributions are positively skewed and cost elements seem to have some interdependent relationships.

The Effect of Infrastructure Sharing in Estimating Operations Cost of Future Space Transportation Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Sundaram, Meenakshi

2005-01-01

NASA and the aerospace industry are extremely serious about reducing the cost and improving the performance of launch vehicles both manned or unmanned. In the aerospace industry, sharing infrastructure for manufacturing more than one type spacecraft is becoming a trend to achieve economy of scale. An example is the Boeing Decatur facility where both Delta II and Delta IV launch vehicles are made. The author is not sure how Boeing estimates the costs of each spacecraft made in the same facility. Regardless of how a contractor estimates the cost, NASA in its popular cost estimating tool, NASA Air force Cost Modeling (NAFCOM) has to have a method built in to account for the effect of infrastructure sharing. Since there is no provision in the most recent version of NAFCOM2002 to take care of this, it has been found by the Engineering Cost Community at MSFC that the tool overestimates the manufacturing cost by as much as 30%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assess the impact of infrastructure sharing so that better operations cost estimates may be made.

Federal Regulations: Efforts to Estimate Total Costs and Benefits of Rules

Science.gov (United States)

2004-04-07

the Chamber of Commerce , academicians, the media, and others, and is sometimes cited with a high degree of certainty ." For example, some articles...House of Representatives, Feb . 25,2004; and testimony of William P . Kovacs, Vice President, U .S. Chamber of Commerce , before the Subcommittee on Energy...estimated the annual cost to employers of the Family and Medical Leave Act at $825 million, but that the Chamber of Commerce estimated the cost at between $3

Estimate of the cost of multiple sclerosis in Spain by literature review.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández, Oscar; Calleja-Hernández, Miguel Angel; Meca-Lallana, José; Oreja-Guevara, Celia; Polanco, Ana; Pérez-Alcántara, Ferran

2017-08-01

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a progressive disease leading to increasing disability and costs. A literature review was carried out to identify MS costs and to estimate its economic burden in Spain. Areas Covered: The public electronic databases PubMed, ScienceDirect and IBECS were consulted and a manual review of communications presented at related congresses was carried out. A total of 225 references were obtained, of which 43 were finally included in the study. Expert Commentary: Three major cost groups were identified: direct healthcare costs, direct non-healthcare costs and indirect costs. There is a direct relationship between disease progression and increased costs, mainly direct non-healthcare costs (greater need for informal care) and indirect costs (greater loss of productivity). The total cost associated with MS in Spain is €1,395 million per year, and that the mean annual cost per patient is €30,050. Beyond costs, a large impact on the quality of life of patients, with an annual loss of up to 13,000 quality-adjusted life years was also estimated. MS has a large economic impact on Spanish society and a significant impact on the quality of life of patients.

A study on the estimation method of nuclear accident risk cost

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuo, Yuji

2016-01-01

The methodology of estimating nuclear accident risk cost, as a part of nuclear power generation cost, has hardly been established due mainly to the extremely wide range of the estimation of the accident frequency. This study estimates the expected nuclear accident frequency for Japan, making use of the method of Bayesian statistics, which exploits both the information obtained by Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the observed historical accident frequencies. Using the PRA estimation of the Containment Failure Frequency (CFF) for Tomari nuclear power plant unit 3 of Hokkaido Electric Power Company (average: 2.1 x 10 -4 , 95th percentile: 7.7 x 10 -4 ) and the actual large-scale accident frequency (once in 1,460 reactor-years), the posterior CFF was estimated at 3.8 x 10 -4 . This study also took into account the 'external' factor causing unexpected nuclear accidents, concluding that such factor could result in higher CFF estimations, especially with larger observed accident numbers. (author)

Estimated Cost to a Restaurant of a Foodborne Illness Outbreak.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartsch, Sarah M; Asti, Lindsey; Nyathi, Sindiso; Spiker, Marie L; Lee, Bruce Y

Although outbreaks of restaurant-associated foodborne illness occur periodically and make the news, a restaurant may not be aware of the cost of an outbreak. We estimated this cost under varying circumstances. We developed a computational simulation model; scenarios varied outbreak size (5 to 250 people affected), pathogen (n = 15), type of dining establishment (fast food, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining), lost revenue (ie, meals lost per illness), cost of lawsuits and legal fees, fines, and insurance premium increases. We estimated that the cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak ranged from $3968 to $1.9 million for a fast-food restaurant, $6330 to $2.1 million for a fast-casual restaurant, $8030 to $2.2 million for a casual-dining restaurant, and $8273 to $2.6 million for a fine-dining restaurant, varying from a 5-person outbreak, with no lost revenue, lawsuits, legal fees, or fines, to a 250-person outbreak, with high lost revenue (100 meals lost per illness), and a high amount of lawsuits and legal fees ($1 656 569) and fines ($100 000). This cost amounts to 10% to 5790% of a restaurant's annual marketing costs and 0.3% to 101% of annual profits and revenue. The biggest cost drivers were lawsuits and legal fees, outbreak size, and lost revenue. Pathogen type affected the cost by a maximum of $337 000, the difference between a Bacillus cereus outbreak (least costly) and a listeria outbreak (most costly). The cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak to a restaurant can be substantial and outweigh the typical costs of prevention and control measures. Our study can help decision makers determine investment and motivate research for infection-control measures in restaurant settings.

Total cost estimates for large-scale wind scenarios in UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dale, Lewis; Milborrow, David; Slark, Richard; Strbac, Goran

2004-01-01

The recent UK Energy White Paper suggested that the Government should aim to secure 20% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020. A number of estimates of the extra cost of such a commitment have been made, but these have not necessarily included all the relevant cost components. This analysis sets out to identify these and to calculate the extra cost to the electricity consumer, assuming all the renewable electricity is sourced from wind energy. This enables one of the more controversial issues--the implications of wind intermittency--to be addressed. The basis of the assumptions associated with generating costs, extra balancing costs and distribution and transmission system reinforcement costs are all clearly identified and the total costs of a '20% wind' scenario are compared with a scenario where a similar amount of energy is generated by gas-fired plant. This enables the extra costs of the renewables scenario to be determined. The central estimate of the extra costs to electricity consumers is just over 0.3 p/kW h in current prices (around 5% extra on average domestic unit prices). Sensitivity analyses examine the implications of differing assumptions. The extra cost would rise if the capital costs of wind generation fall slower than anticipated, but would fall if gas prices rise more rapidly than has been assumed, or if wind plant are more productive. Even if it is assumed that wind has no capacity displacement value, the added cost to the electricity consumer rises by less than 0.1 p/kW h. It is concluded that there does not appear to be any technical reason why a substantial proportion of the country's electricity requirements could not be delivered by wind

The cost of crime to society: new crime-specific estimates for policy and program evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

McCollister, Kathryn E; French, Michael T; Fang, Hai

2010-04-01

Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than 10 years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost to society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hospital costs estimation and prediction as a function of patient and admission characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramiarina, Robert; Almeida, Renan Mvr; Pereira, Wagner Ca

2008-01-01

The present work analyzed the association between hospital costs and patient admission characteristics in a general public hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The unit costs method was used to estimate inpatient day costs associated to specific hospital clinics. With this aim, three "cost centers" were defined in order to group direct and indirect expenses pertaining to the clinics. After the costs were estimated, a standard linear regression model was developed for correlating cost units and their putative predictors (the patients gender and age, the admission type (urgency/elective), ICU admission (yes/no), blood transfusion (yes/no), the admission outcome (death/no death), the complexity of the medical procedures performed, and a risk-adjustment index). Data were collected for 3100 patients, January 2001-January 2003. Average inpatient costs across clinics ranged from (US$) 1135 [Orthopedics] to 3101 [Cardiology]. Costs increased according to increases in the risk-adjustment index in all clinics, and the index was statistically significant in all clinics except Urology, General surgery, and Clinical medicine. The occupation rate was inversely correlated to costs, and age had no association with costs. The (adjusted) per cent of explained variance varied between 36.3% [Clinical medicine] and 55.1% [Thoracic surgery clinic]. The estimates are an important step towards the standardization of hospital costs calculation, especially for countries that lack formal hospital accounting systems.

Estimating the costs of school closure for mitigating an influenza pandemic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adams Elisabeth J

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background School closure is a key component of many countries' plans to mitigate the effect of an influenza pandemic. Although a number of studies have suggested that such a policy might reduce the incidence, there are no published studies of the cost of such policies. This study attempts to fill this knowledge gap Methods School closure is expected to lead to significant work absenteeism of working parents who are likely to be the main care givers to their dependent children at home. The cost of absenteeism due to school closure is calculated as the paid productivity loss of parental absenteeism during the period of school closure. The cost is estimated from societal perspective using a nationally representative survey. Results The results show that overall about 16% of the workforce is likely to be the main caregiver for dependent children and therefore likely to take absenteeism. This rises to 30% in the health and social care sector, as a large proportion of the workforce are women. The estimated costs of school closure are significant, at £0.2 bn – £1.2 bn per week. School closure is likely to significantly exacerbate the pressures on the health system through staff absenteeism. Conclusion The estimates of school closure associated absenteeism and the projected cost would be useful for pandemic planning for business continuity, and for cost effectiveness evaluation of different pandemic influenza mitigation strategies.

Cost estimation model for advanced planetary programs, fourth edition

Science.gov (United States)

Spadoni, D. J.

1983-01-01

The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.

Estimated incident cost savings in shipping due to inspections.

Science.gov (United States)

Knapp, Sabine; Bijwaard, Govert; Heij, Christiaan

2011-07-01

The effectiveness of safety inspections of ships has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper provides a monetary quantification of the cost savings that can be attributed to port state control inspections and industry vetting inspections. The dataset consists of more than half a million ship arrivals between 2002 and 2007 and contains inspections of port state authorities in the USA and Australia and of three industry vetting regimes. The effect of inspections in reducing the risk of total loss accidents is estimated by means of duration models, in terms of the gained probability of survival. The monetary benefit of port state control inspections is estimated to range, on average, from about 70 to 190 thousand dollars, with median values ranging from about 20 to 45 thousand dollars. Industry inspections have even higher benefits, especially for tankers. The savings are in general higher for older and larger vessels, and also for vessels with undefined flag and unknown classification society. As inspection costs are relatively low in comparison to potential cost savings, the results underline the importance of determining ships with relatively high risk of total loss. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of cost function in the natural gas industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Young Duk [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-02-01

The natural gas industry in Korea has characteristics of a dual industrial structure with wholesale and retail and a regional monopoly of city gas company. Recently there have been discussions on the restructuring of gas industry and the problems arising from such industrial organization. At this point, the labor and capital cost of KOGAS were analyzed to find out efficiency of KOGAS, the wholesaler and the cost function focusing on distribution was estimated to find out effect of scale of city gas company, the retailer. As a result, in the case of KOGAS, it is prove that enhancing competitive power is needed by improving labor productivity through stabilization of labor structure and by maximizing value-added through stability of capital combination. From the estimation of cost function of city gas companies, the existing regional monopoly of city gas company have effects on its scale only when the area of operation and end users used the same amount per end user are increased. (author). 31 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

Comparison of methods for estimating the cost of human immunodeficiency virus-testing interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Ram K; Sansom, Stephanie L; Farnham, Paul G

2012-01-01

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention, spends approximately 50% of its $325 million annual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention funds for HIV-testing services. An accurate estimate of the costs of HIV testing in various settings is essential for efficient allocation of HIV prevention resources. To assess the costs of HIV-testing interventions using different costing methods. We used the microcosting-direct measurement method to assess the costs of HIV-testing interventions in nonclinical settings, and we compared these results with those from 3 other costing methods: microcosting-staff allocation, where the labor cost was derived from the proportion of each staff person's time allocated to HIV testing interventions; gross costing, where the New York State Medicaid payment for HIV testing was used to estimate program costs, and program budget, where the program cost was assumed to be the total funding provided by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Total program cost, cost per person tested, and cost per person notified of new HIV diagnosis. The median costs per person notified of a new HIV diagnosis were $12 475, $15 018, $2697, and $20 144 based on microcosting-direct measurement, microcosting-staff allocation, gross costing, and program budget methods, respectively. Compared with the microcosting-direct measurement method, the cost was 78% lower with gross costing, and 20% and 61% higher using the microcosting-staff allocation and program budget methods, respectively. Our analysis showed that HIV-testing program cost estimates vary widely by costing methods. However, the choice of a particular costing method may depend on the research question being addressed. Although program budget and gross-costing methods may be attractive because of their simplicity, only the microcosting-direct measurement method can identify important determinants of the program costs and provide guidance to improve

Cost estimates to guide manufacturing of composite waved beam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ye Jinrui; Zhang Boming; Qi Haiming

2009-01-01

A cost estimation model on the basis of manufacturing process has been presented. In the model, the effects of the material, labor, tool and equipment were discussed, and the corresponding formulas were provided. A method of selecting estimation variables has been provided based on a case study of composite waved beam using autoclave cure. The model parameters related to the process time estimation of the lay-up procedure were analyzed and modified for different part configurations. The result shows that there is little error while comparing the estimated process time with the practical one. The model is verified to be applicable to guide the design and manufacturing of the composite material

Qualitative and quantitative cost estimation : a methodology analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aram, S.; Eastman, C.; Beetz, J.; Issa, R.; Flood, I.

2014-01-01

This paper reports on the first part of ongoing research with the goal of designing a framework and a knowledge-based system for 3D parametric model-based quantity take-off and cost estimation in the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) industry. The authors have studied and analyzed

Cost Implications of Uncertainty in CO{sub 2} Storage Resource Estimates: A Review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Steven T., E-mail: sanderson@usgs.gov [National Center, U.S. Geological Survey (United States)

2017-04-15

Carbon capture from stationary sources and geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is an important option to include in strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. However, the potential costs of commercial-scale CO{sub 2} storage are not well constrained, stemming from the inherent uncertainty in storage resource estimates coupled with a lack of detailed estimates of the infrastructure needed to access those resources. Storage resource estimates are highly dependent on storage efficiency values or storage coefficients, which are calculated based on ranges of uncertain geological and physical reservoir parameters. If dynamic factors (such as variability in storage efficiencies, pressure interference, and acceptable injection rates over time), reservoir pressure limitations, boundaries on migration of CO{sub 2}, consideration of closed or semi-closed saline reservoir systems, and other possible constraints on the technically accessible CO{sub 2} storage resource (TASR) are accounted for, it is likely that only a fraction of the TASR could be available without incurring significant additional costs. Although storage resource estimates typically assume that any issues with pressure buildup due to CO{sub 2} injection will be mitigated by reservoir pressure management, estimates of the costs of CO{sub 2} storage generally do not include the costs of active pressure management. Production of saline waters (brines) could be essential to increasing the dynamic storage capacity of most reservoirs, but including the costs of this critical method of reservoir pressure management could increase current estimates of the costs of CO{sub 2} storage by two times, or more. Even without considering the implications for reservoir pressure management, geologic uncertainty can significantly impact CO{sub 2} storage capacities and costs, and contribute to uncertainty in carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems. Given the current state of available information and the

Estimating the costs of tsetse control options: an example for Uganda.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, A P M; Torr, S J; Waiswa, C; Cecchi, G; Wint, G R W; Mattioli, R C; Robinson, T P

2013-07-01

Decision-making and financial planning for tsetse control is complex, with a particularly wide range of choices to be made on location, timing, strategy and methods. This paper presents full cost estimates for eliminating or continuously controlling tsetse in a hypothetical area of 10,000km(2) located in south-eastern Uganda. Four tsetse control techniques were analysed: (i) artificial baits (insecticide-treated traps/targets), (ii) insecticide-treated cattle (ITC), (iii) aerial spraying using the sequential aerosol technique (SAT) and (iv) the addition of the sterile insect technique (SIT) to the insecticide-based methods (i-iii). For the creation of fly-free zones and using a 10% discount rate, the field costs per km(2) came to US$283 for traps (4 traps per km(2)), US$30 for ITC (5 treated cattle per km(2) using restricted application), US$380 for SAT and US$758 for adding SIT. The inclusion of entomological and other preliminary studies plus administrative overheads adds substantially to the overall cost, so that the total costs become US$482 for traps, US$220 for ITC, US$552 for SAT and US$993 - 1365 if SIT is added following suppression using another method. These basic costs would apply to trouble-free operations dealing with isolated tsetse populations. Estimates were also made for non-isolated populations, allowing for a barrier covering 10% of the intervention area, maintained for 3 years. Where traps were used as a barrier, the total cost of elimination increased by between 29% and 57% and for ITC barriers the increase was between 12% and 30%. In the case of continuous tsetse control operations, costs were estimated over a 20-year period and discounted at 10%. Total costs per km(2) came to US$368 for ITC, US$2114 for traps, all deployed continuously, and US$2442 for SAT applied at 3-year intervals. The lower costs compared favourably with the regular treatment of cattle with prophylactic trypanocides (US$3862 per km(2) assuming four doses per annum at 45

Regional Cost Estimates for Reclamation Practices on Arid and Semiarid Lands; TOPICAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

W. K. Ostler

2002-01-01

The U.S. Army uses the Integrated Training Area Management program for managing training land. One of the major objectives of the Integrated Training Area Management program has been to develop a method for estimating training land carrying capacity in a sustainable manner. The Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology measures training load in terms of Maneuver Impact Miles. One Maneuver Impact Mile is the equivalent impact of an M1A2 tank traveling one mile while participating in an armor battalion field training exercise. The Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology is also designed to predict land maintenance costs in terms of dollars per Maneuver Impact Mile. The overall cost factor is calculated using the historical cost of land maintenance practices and the effectiveness of controlling erosion. Because land maintenance costs and effectiveness are influenced by the characteristics of the land, Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity cost factors must be developed for each ecological region of the country. Costs for land maintenance activities are presented here for the semiarid and arid regions of the United States. Five ecoregions are recognized, and average values for reclamation activities are presented. Because there are many variables that can influence costs, ranges for reclamation activities are also presented. Costs are broken down into six major categories: seedbed preparation, fertilization, seeding, planting, mulching, and supplemental erosion control. Costs for most land reclamation practices and materials varied widely within and between ecological provinces. Although regional cost patterns were evident for some practices, the patterns were not consistent between practices. For the purpose of estimating land reclamation costs for the Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology, it may be desirable to use the ''Combined Average'' of all provinces found in the last row of each table

Estimating the Cost of Care for Emergency Department Syncope Patients: Comparison of Three Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marc A. Probst

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction: We sought to compare three hospital cost-estimation models for patients undergoing evaluation for unexplained syncope using hospital cost data. Developing such a model would allow researchers to assess the value of novel clinical algorithms for syncope management. Methods: We collected complete health services data, including disposition, testing, and length of stay (LOS, on 67 adult patients (age 60 years and older who presented to the emergency department (ED with syncope at a single hospital. Patients were excluded if a serious medical condition was identified. We created three hospital cost-estimation models to estimate facility costs: V1, unadjusted Medicare payments for observation and/or hospital admission; V2: modified Medicare payment, prorated by LOS in calendar days; and V3: modified Medicare payment, prorated by LOS in hours. Total hospital costs included unadjusted Medicare payments for diagnostic testing and estimated facility costs. We plotted these estimates against actual cost data from the hospital finance department, and performed correlation and regression analyses. Results: Of the three models, V3 consistently outperformed the others with regard to correlation and goodness of fit. The Pearson correlation coefficient for V3 was 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81, 0.92 with an R-square value of 0.77 and a linear regression coefficient of 0.87 (95% CI 0.76, 0.99. Conclusion: Using basic health services data, it is possible to accurately estimate hospital costs for older adults undergoing a hospital-based evaluation for unexplained syncope. This methodology could help assess the potential economic impact of implementing novel clinical algorithms for ED syncope. [West J Emerg Med. 2017;18(2253-257.

Cost estimate of Olkiluoto disposal facility for spent nuclear fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kukkola, T.; Saanio, T.

2005-03-01

The cost estimate covers the underground rock characterisation facility ONKALO, the investment and the operating costs of the above and underground facilities, the decommissioning of the encapsulation plant and the closure costs of the repository. The above ground facility is a once-investment; a re-investment takes place after 37 years operation. The repository is extended stepwise thus also the investment take place in stages. Annual operating costs are calculated with different operating efficiencies. The total investment costs of the disposal facility are estimated to be 503 M euro (Million Euros), the total operating costs are 1,923 M euro and the decommissioning and the closure costs are 116 M euro totaling 2,542 M euro. The investment costs of the above ground facility are 142 M euro, the operating costs are 1,678 M euro. The repository investment costs are 360 M euro and the operating costs are 245 M euro. The decommissioning costs are 7 M euro and the closure costs are 109 M euro. The costs are calculated by using the price level of December 2003. The cost estimate is based on a plan, where the spent fuel is encapsulated and the disposal canisters are disposed into the bedrock at a depth of about 420 meters in one storey. In the encapsulation process, the fuel assemblies are closed into composite canisters, in which the inner part of the canister is made of nodular cast iron and the outer wall of copper having a thickness of 50 mm. The inner canister is closed gas-tight by a bolted steel lid, and the electron beam welding method is used to close the outer copper lid. The encapsulation plant is independent and located above the deep repository spaces. The disposal canisters are transported to the repository by the lift. The disposal tunnels are constructed and closed in stages according the disposal canisters disposal. The operating time of the Loviisa nuclear power plant units is assumed to be 50 years and the operating time of the Olkiluoto nuclear power

Early cost estimating for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ibrahim Mahamid

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to develop early cost estimating models for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques, based on 131 sets of data collected in the West Bank in Palestine. As the cost estimates are required at early stages of a project, considerations were given to the fact that the input data for the required regression model could be easily extracted from sketches or scope definition of the project. 11 regression models are developed to estimate the total cost of road construction project in US dollar; 5 of them include bid quantities as input variables and 6 include road length and road width. The coefficient of determination r2 for the developed models is ranging from 0.92 to 0.98 which indicate that the predicted values from a forecast models fit with the real-life data. The values of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of the developed regression models are ranging from 13% to 31%, the results compare favorably with past researches which have shown that the estimate accuracy in the early stages of a project is between ±25% and ±50%.

Early‐Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Biorefinery Processes: A Comparative Study of Heuristic Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Couturier, Jean‐Luc; Kokossis, Antonis; Dubois, Jean‐Luc

2016-01-01

Abstract Biorefineries offer a promising alternative to fossil‐based processing industries and have undergone rapid development in recent years. Limited financial resources and stringent company budgets necessitate quick capital estimation of pioneering biorefinery projects at the early stages of their conception to screen process alternatives, decide on project viability, and allocate resources to the most promising cases. Biorefineries are capital‐intensive projects that involve state‐of‐the‐art technologies for which there is no prior experience or sufficient historical data. This work reviews existing rapid cost estimation practices, which can be used by researchers with no previous cost estimating experience. It also comprises a comparative study of six cost methods on three well‐documented biorefinery processes to evaluate their accuracy and precision. The results illustrate discrepancies among the methods because their extrapolation on biorefinery data often violates inherent assumptions. This study recommends the most appropriate rapid cost methods and urges the development of an improved early‐stage capital cost estimation tool suitable for biorefinery processes. PMID:27484398

Why Don't They Just Give Us Money? Project Cost Estimating and Cost Reporting

Science.gov (United States)

Comstock, Douglas A.; Van Wychen, Kristin; Zimmerman, Mary Beth

2015-01-01

Successful projects require an integrated approach to managing cost, schedule, and risk. This is especially true for complex, multi-year projects involving multiple organizations. To explore solutions and leverage valuable lessons learned, NASA's Virtual Project Management Challenge will kick off a three-part series examining some of the challenges faced by project and program managers when it comes to managing these important elements. In this first session of the series, we will look at cost management, with an emphasis on the critical roles of cost estimating and cost reporting. By taking a proactive approach to both of these activities, project managers can better control life cycle costs, maintain stakeholder confidence, and protect other current and future projects in the organization's portfolio. Speakers will be Doug Comstock, Director of NASA's Cost Analysis Division, Kristin Van Wychen, Senior Analyst in the GAO Acquisition and Sourcing Management Team, and Mary Beth Zimmerman, Branch Chief for NASA's Portfolio Analysis Branch, Strategic Investments Division. Moderator Ramien Pierre is from NASA's Academy for Program/Project and Engineering Leadership (APPEL).

Cost and price estimate of Brayton and Stirling engines in selected production volumes

Science.gov (United States)

Fortgang, H. R.; Mayers, H. F.

1980-01-01

The methods used to determine the production costs and required selling price of Brayton and Stirling engines modified for use in solar power conversion units are presented. Each engine part, component and assembly was examined and evaluated to determine the costs of its material and the method of manufacture based on specific annual production volumes. Cost estimates are presented for both the Stirling and Brayton engines in annual production volumes of 1,000, 25,000, 100,000 and 400,000. At annual production volumes above 50,000 units, the costs of both engines are similar, although the Stirling engine costs are somewhat lower. It is concluded that modifications to both the Brayton and Stirling engine designs could reduce the estimated costs.

Cost of Equity Estimation in Fuel and Energy Sector Companies Based on CAPM

Science.gov (United States)

Kozieł, Diana; Pawłowski, Stanisław; Kustra, Arkadiusz

2018-03-01

The article presents cost of equity estimation of capital groups from the fuel and energy sector, listed at the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The objective of the article was to perform a valuation of equity with the application of CAPM, based on actual financial data and stock exchange data and to carry out a sensitivity analysis of such cost, depending on the financing structure of the entity. The objective of the article formulated in this manner has determined its' structure. It focuses on presentation of substantive analyses related to the core of equity and methods of estimating its' costs, with special attention given to the CAPM. In the practical section, estimation of cost was performed according to the CAPM methodology, based on the example of leading fuel and energy companies, such as Tauron GE and PGE. Simultaneously, sensitivity analysis of such cost was performed depending on the structure of financing the company's operation.

Cost of Equity Estimation in Fuel and Energy Sector Companies Based on CAPM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kozieł Diana

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The article presents cost of equity estimation of capital groups from the fuel and energy sector, listed at the Warsaw Stock Exchange, based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM. The objective of the article was to perform a valuation of equity with the application of CAPM, based on actual financial data and stock exchange data and to carry out a sensitivity analysis of such cost, depending on the financing structure of the entity. The objective of the article formulated in this manner has determined its’ structure. It focuses on presentation of substantive analyses related to the core of equity and methods of estimating its’ costs, with special attention given to the CAPM. In the practical section, estimation of cost was performed according to the CAPM methodology, based on the example of leading fuel and energy companies, such as Tauron GE and PGE. Simultaneously, sensitivity analysis of such cost was performed depending on the structure of financing the company’s operation.

Estimating the Reference Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio for the Australian Health System.

Science.gov (United States)

Edney, Laura Catherine; Haji Ali Afzali, Hossein; Cheng, Terence Chai; Karnon, Jonathan

2018-02-01

Spending on new healthcare technologies increases net population health when the benefits of a new technology are greater than their opportunity costs-the benefits of the best alternative use of the additional resources required to fund a new technology. The objective of this study was to estimate the expected incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained of increased government health expenditure as an empirical estimate of the average opportunity costs of decisions to fund new health technologies. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is proposed as a reference ICER to inform value-based decision making in Australia. Empirical top-down approaches were used to estimate the QALY effects of government health expenditure with respect to reduced mortality and morbidity. Instrumental variable two-stage least-squares regression was used to estimate the elasticity of mortality-related QALY losses to a marginal change in government health expenditure. Regression analysis of longitudinal survey data representative of the general population was used to isolate the effects of increased government health expenditure on morbidity-related, QALY gains. Clinical judgement informed the duration of health-related quality-of-life improvement from the annual increase in government health expenditure. The base-case reference ICER was estimated at AUD28,033 per QALY gained. Parametric uncertainty associated with the estimation of mortality- and morbidity-related QALYs generated a 95% confidence interval AUD20,758-37,667. Recent public summary documents suggest new technologies with ICERs above AUD40,000 per QALY gained are recommended for public funding. The empirical reference ICER reported in this article suggests more QALYs could be gained if resources were allocated to other forms of health spending.

Estimating the harms and costs of cannabis-attributable collisions in the Canadian provinces.

Science.gov (United States)

Wettlaufer, Ashley; Florica, Roxana O; Asbridge, Mark; Beirness, Douglas; Brubacher, Jeffrey; Callaghan, Russell; Fischer, Benedikt; Gmel, Gerrit; Imtiaz, Sameer; Mann, Robert E; McKiernan, Anna; Rehm, Jürgen

2017-04-01

In 2012, 10% of Canadians used cannabis and just under half of those who use cannabis were estimated to have driven under the influence of cannabis. Substantial evidence has accumulated to indicate that driving after cannabis use increases collision risk significantly; however, little is known about the extent and costs associated with cannabis-related traffic collisions. This study quantifies the costs of cannabis-related traffic collisions in the Canadian provinces. Province and age specific cannabis-attributable fractions (CAFs) were calculated for traffic collisions of varying severity. The CAFs were applied to traffic collision data in order to estimate the total number of persons involved in cannabis-attributable fatal, injury and property damage only collisions. Social cost values, based on willingness-to-pay and direct costs, were applied to estimate the costs associated with cannabis-related traffic collisions. The 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Monte Carlo methodology. Cannabis-attributable traffic collisions were estimated to have caused 75 deaths (95% CI: 0-213), 4407 injuries (95% CI: 20-11,549) and 7794 people (95% CI: 3107-13,086) were involved in property damage only collisions in Canada in 2012, totalling $1,094,972,062 (95% CI: 37,069,392-2,934,108,175) with costs being highest among younger people. The cannabis-attributable driving harms and costs are substantial. The harm and cost of cannabis-related collisions is an important factor to consider as Canada looks to legalize and regulate the sale of cannabis. This analysis provides evidence to help inform Canadian policy to reduce the human and economic costs of drug-impaired driving. Copyright © 2017 Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost estimates and economic evaluations for conceptual LLRW disposal facility designs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baird, R.D.; Chau, N. [Rogers & Associates Engineering Corp., Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Breeds, C.D. [SubTerra, Inc., Redmond, WA (United States)

1995-12-31

Total life-cycle costs were estimated in support of the New York LLRW Siting Commission`s project to select a disposal method from four near-surface LLRW disposal methods (namely, uncovered above-grade vaults, covered above-grade vaults, below-grade vaults, and augered holes) and two mined methods (namely, vertical shaft mines and drift mines). Conceptual designs for the disposal methods were prepared and used as the basis for the cost estimates. Typical economic performance of each disposal method was assessed. Life-cycle costs expressed in 1994 dollars ranged from $ 1,100 million (for below-grade vaults and both mined disposal methods) to $2,000 million (for augered holes). Present values ranged from $620 million (for below-grade vaults) to $ 1,100 million (for augered holes).

Determination of prerequisites for the estimation of transportation cost of spent fuels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Heui Joo; Lee, Jong Youl; Kim, Seong Ki; Cha, Jeong Hoon; Choi, Jong Won

2007-10-01

The cost for the spent fuel management includes the costs for the interim storage, the transportation, and the permanent disposal of the spent fuels. The scope of this report is limited to the cost for the spent fuel transportation. KAERI is developing a cost estimation method for the spent fuel transportation through a joint study with the French AREVA TN. Several prerequisites should be fixed in order to estimate the cost for the spent fuel transportation properly. In this report we produced them considering the Korean current status on the management of spent fuels. The representative characteristics of a spent fuel generated from the six nuclear reactors at the YG site were determined. Total 7,200 tons of spent fuels are projected with the lifespan of 60 years. As the transportation mode, sea transportation and road transportation is recommended considering the location of the YG site and the hypothetical Centralized Interim Storage Facility (CISF) and Final Repository (FR). The sea route and transportation time were analyzed by using a sea distance analysis program which the NORI (National Oceanographic Research Institute) supplies on a web. Based on the results of the analysis, the shipping rates were determined. The regulations related to the spent fuel transportation were reviewed. The characteristics of the transportation vessel and a trailer were suggested. The handling and transportation systems at the YG site, Centralized Interim Storage Facility, and the Final Repository were described in detail for the purpose of the cost estimation of the spent fuel transportation. From the detail description the major components of the transportation system were determined for the conceptual design. It is believed that the conceptual design of the transportation system developed in this report will be used for the analysis of transportation logistics and the cost estimation of spent fuels

Resolving the "Cost-Effective but Unaffordable" Paradox: Estimating the Health Opportunity Costs of Nonmarginal Budget Impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Lomas, James; Claxton, Karl; Martin, Stephen; Soares, Marta

2018-03-01

Considering whether or not a proposed investment (an intervention, technology, or program of care) is affordable is really asking whether the benefits it offers are greater than its opportunity cost. To say that an investment is cost-effective but not affordable must mean that the (implicit or explicit) "threshold" used to judge cost-effectiveness does not reflect the scale and value of the opportunity costs. Existing empirical estimates of health opportunity costs are based on cross-sectional variation in expenditure and mortality outcomes by program budget categories (PBCs) and do not reflect the likely effect of nonmarginal budget impacts on health opportunity costs. The UK Department of Health regularly updates the needs-based target allocation of resources to local areas of the National Health Service (NHS), creating two subgroups of local areas (those under target allocation and those over). These data provide the opportunity to explore how the effects of changes in health care expenditure differ with available resources. We use 2008-2009 data to evaluate two econometric approaches to estimation and explore a range of criteria for accepting subgroup specific effects for differences in expenditure and outcome elasticities across the 23 PBCs. Our results indicate that health opportunity costs arising from an investment imposing net increases in expenditure are underestimated unless account is taken of likely nonmarginal effects. They also indicate the benefits (reduced health opportunity costs or increased value-based price of a technology) of being able to "smooth" these nonmarginal budget impacts by health care systems borrowing against future budgets or from manufacturers offering "mortgage" type arrangements. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Revised cost savings estimate with uncertainty for enhanced sludge washing of underground storage tank waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeMuth, S.

1998-01-01

Enhanced Sludge Washing (ESW) has been selected to reduce the amount of sludge-based underground storage tank (UST) high-level waste at the Hanford site. During the past several years, studies have been conducted to determine the cost savings derived from the implementation of ESW. The tank waste inventory and ESW performance continues to be revised as characterization and development efforts advance. This study provides a new cost savings estimate based upon the most recent inventory and ESW performance revisions, and includes an estimate of the associated cost uncertainty. Whereas the author's previous cost savings estimates for ESW were compared against no sludge washing, this study assumes the baseline to be simple water washing which more accurately reflects the retrieval activity along. The revised ESW cost savings estimate for all UST waste at Hanford is $6.1 B ± $1.3 B within 95% confidence. This is based upon capital and operating cost savings, but does not include development costs. The development costs are assumed negligible since they should be at least an order of magnitude less than the savings. The overall cost savings uncertainty was derived from process performance uncertainties and baseline remediation cost uncertainties, as determined by the author's engineering judgment

Avoided cost estimation and post-reform funding allocation for California's energy efficiency programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baskette, C.; Horii, B.; Price, S.; Kollman, E.

2006-01-01

This paper summarizes the first comprehensive estimation of California's electricity avoided costs since the state reformed its electricity market. It describes avoided cost estimates that vary by time and location, thus facilitating targeted design, funding, and marketing of demand-side management (DSM) and energy efficiency (EE) programs that could not have occurred under the previous methodology of system average cost estimation. The approach, data, and results reflect two important market structure changes: (a) wholesale spot and forward markets now supply electricity commodities to load serving entities; and (b) the evolution of an emissions market that internalizes and prices some of the externalities of electricity generation. The paper also introduces the multiplier effect of a price reduction due to DSM/EE implementation on electricity bills of all consumers. It affirms that area- and time-specific avoided cost estimates can improve the allocation of the state's public funding for DSM/EE programs, a finding that could benefit other parts of North America (e.g. Ontario and New York), which have undergone electricity deregulation. (author)

Dataset on the cost estimation for spent filter backwash water (SFBW treatment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Afshin Ebrahimi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The dataset presented in this article are related to the research article entitled “Hybrid coagulation-UF processes for spent filter backwash water treatment: a comparison studies for PAFCl and FeCl3 as a pre-treatment” (Ebrahimi et al., 2017 [1]. This article reports the cost estimation for treating produced spent filter backwash water (SFBW during water treatment in Isfahan- Iran by various methods including primary sedimentation, coagulation & flocculation, second clarification, ultra filtration (UF and recirculation of settled SFBW to water treatment plant (WTP entrance. Coagulation conducted by PAFCl and FeCl3 as pre polymerized and traditional coagulants. Cost estimation showed that contrary to expectations, the recirculation of settled SFBW to WTP entrance is more expensive than other method and it costs about $ 37,814,817.6. Versus the cheapest option related to separate primary sedimentation, coagulation & flocculation in WTP. This option cost about $ 4,757,200 and $ 950,213 when FeCl3 and PAFCl used as coagulant, respectively. Keywords: Spent filter backwash water, Water treatment, Coat estimation, Water reuse

Controlling Campylobacter in the chicken meat chain; Estimation of intervention costs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mangen, M.J.J.; Havelaar, A.H.; Poppe, K.J.

2005-01-01

Campylobacter infections are a serious public health problem in the Netherlands. As a part of the CARMA project, this study focus on the estimation of the potential direct costs related to the implementation of various intervention measures to control campylobacters in the chicken meat chain. Costs

Enhancing Groundwater Cost Estimation with the Interpolation of Water Tables across the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Rosli, A. U. M.; Lall, U.; Josset, L.; Rising, J. A.; Russo, T. A.; Eisenhart, T.

2017-12-01

Analyzing the trends in water use and supply across the United States is fundamental to efforts in ensuring water sustainability. As part of this, estimating the costs of producing or obtaining water (water extraction) and the correlation with water use is an important aspect in understanding the underlying trends. This study estimates groundwater costs by interpolating the depth to water level across the US in each county. We use Ordinary and Universal Kriging, accounting for the differences between aquifers. Kriging generates a best linear unbiased estimate at each location and has been widely used to map ground-water surfaces (Alley, 1993).The spatial covariates included in the universal Kriging were land-surface elevation as well as aquifer information. The average water table is computed for each county using block kriging to obtain a national map of groundwater cost, which we compare with survey estimates of depth to the water table performed by the USDA. Groundwater extraction costs were then assumed to be proportional to water table depth. Beyond estimating the water cost, the approach can provide an indication of groundwater-stress by exploring the historical evolution of depth to the water table using time series information between 1960 and 2015. Despite data limitations, we hope to enable a more compelling and meaningful national-level analysis through the quantification of cost and stress for more economically efficient water management.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of stroke units in France compared with conventional care.

Science.gov (United States)

Launois, R; Giroud, M; Mégnigbêto, A C; Le Lay, K; Présenté, G; Mahagne, M H; Durand, I; Gaudin, A F

2004-03-01

The incidence of stroke in France is estimated at between 120 000 and 150 000 cases per year. This modeling study assessed the clinical and economic benefits of establishing specialized stroke units compared with conventional care. Data from the Dijon stroke registry were used to determine healthcare trajectories according to the degree of autonomy and organization of patient care. The relative risks of death or institutionalization or death or dependence after passage through a stroke unit were compared with conventional care. These risks were then inserted with the costing data into a Markov model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of stroke units. Patients cared for in a stroke unit survive more trimesters without sequelae in the 5 years after hospitalization than those cared for conventionally (11.6 versus 8.28 trimesters). The mean cost per patient at 5 years was estimated at 30 983 for conventional care and 34 638 in a stroke unit. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for stroke units of 1359 per year of life gained without disability was estimated. The cost-effectiveness ratio for stroke units is much lower than the threshold (53 400 ) of acceptability recognized by the international scientific community. This finding justifies organizational changes in the management of stroke patients and the establishment of stroke units in France.

Estimating the cost of healthcare delivery in three hospitals in southern ghana.

Science.gov (United States)

Aboagye, A Q Q; Degboe, A N K; Obuobi, A A D

2010-09-01

The cost burden (called full cost) of providing health services at a referral, a district and a mission hospital in Ghana were determined. Standard cost-finding and cost analysis tools recommended by World Health Organization are used to analyse 2002 and 2003 hospital data. Full cost centre costs were computed by taking into account cash and non-cash expenses and allocating overhead costs to intermediate and final patient care centres. The full costs of running the mission hospital in 2002 and 2003 were US$600,295 and US$758,647 respectively; for the district hospital, the respective costs were US$496,240 and US$487,537; and for the referral hospital, the respective costs were US$1,160,535 and US$1,394,321. Of these, overhead costs ranged between 20% and 42%, while salaries made up between 45% and 60%. Based on healthcare utilization data, in 2003 the estimated cost per outpatient attendance was US$ 2.25 at the mission hospital, US$ 4.51 at the district hospital and US$8.5 at the referral hospital; inpatient day costs were US$ 6.05, US$ 9.95 and US$18.8 at the respective hospitals. User fees charged at service delivery points were generally below cost. However, some service delivery points have the potential to recover their costs. Salaries are the major cost component of the three hospitals. Overhead costs constitute an important part of hospital costs and must be noted in efforts to recover costs. Cost structures are different at different types of hospitals. Unit costs at service delivery points can be estimated and projected into the future.

Application of Korean Specific Data to Economic Cost Estimation by KOSCA-MACCS2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Sun Yeong; Jang, Seung-Cheol

2015-01-01

Default values for various data provided by MACCS2(MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System Version 2) such as population, weather, food, and economic cost are far from current domestic condition. In the case of economic cost data, related default values came from MACCS and WASH-1400. KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has been developed a Korean-specific level 3 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) code package based on MACCS2 to reflect domestic condition for off-site consequence analysis. To this end, we performed a study on the domestic specific technical issues for level 3 PSA, which are a dose conversion factor, food chain model, atmospheric dispersion model, and domestic-specific economic effect model. Based on the study, we developed a level 3 PSA code, so-called KOSCAMACCS2 (Korean-specific Off-Site Consequence Analysis based on MACCS2). The purpose of this paper is to introduce economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and application of Korean-specific data to the related economic cost estimation with KOSCA-MACCS2. In this paper, we introduced economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and suggested the application plan of Korean-specific data to the related economic cost estimation. To this end, we considered data sources for those economic cost variables to reflect Korea-specific features such as data by Statistics Korea or Bank of Korea etc. For the decontamination related variables, we applied foreign literatures to apply data, which are Extern-E and UNESCO Chernobyl Forum data. Based on the data resources we estimated data for input variables related to economic cost estimation

Application of Korean Specific Data to Economic Cost Estimation by KOSCA-MACCS2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choi, Sun Yeong; Jang, Seung-Cheol [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

Default values for various data provided by MACCS2(MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System Version 2) such as population, weather, food, and economic cost are far from current domestic condition. In the case of economic cost data, related default values came from MACCS and WASH-1400. KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has been developed a Korean-specific level 3 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) code package based on MACCS2 to reflect domestic condition for off-site consequence analysis. To this end, we performed a study on the domestic specific technical issues for level 3 PSA, which are a dose conversion factor, food chain model, atmospheric dispersion model, and domestic-specific economic effect model. Based on the study, we developed a level 3 PSA code, so-called KOSCAMACCS2 (Korean-specific Off-Site Consequence Analysis based on MACCS2). The purpose of this paper is to introduce economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and application of Korean-specific data to the related economic cost estimation with KOSCA-MACCS2. In this paper, we introduced economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and suggested the application plan of Korean-specific data to the related economic cost estimation. To this end, we considered data sources for those economic cost variables to reflect Korea-specific features such as data by Statistics Korea or Bank of Korea etc. For the decontamination related variables, we applied foreign literatures to apply data, which are Extern-E and UNESCO Chernobyl Forum data. Based on the data resources we estimated data for input variables related to economic cost estimation.

Cost-price estimation of clinical laboratory services based on activity-based costing: A case study from a developing country.

Science.gov (United States)

Mouseli, Ali; Barouni, Mohsen; Amiresmaili, Mohammadreza; Samiee, Siamak Mirab; Vali, Leila

2017-04-01

It is believed that laboratory tariffs in Iran don't reflect the real costs. This might expose private laboratories at financial hardship. Activity Based Costing is widely used as a cost measurement instrument to more closely approximate the true cost of operations. This study aimed to determine the real price of different clinical tests of a selected private clinical laboratory. This study was a cross sectional study carried out in 2015. The study setting was the private laboratories in the city of Kerman, Iran. Of 629 tests in the tariff book of the laboratory (relative value), 188 tests were conducted in the laboratory that used Activity Based Costing (ABC) methodology to estimate cost-price. Analyzing and cost-price estimating of laboratory services were performed by MY ABCM software Version 5.0. In 2015, the total costs were $641,645. Direct and indirect costs were 78.3% and 21.7% respectively. Laboratory consumable costs by 37% and personnel costs by 36.3% had the largest share of the costing. Also, group of hormone tests cost the most $147,741 (23.03%), and other tests group cost the least $3,611 (0.56%). Also after calculating the cost of laboratory services, a comparison was made between the calculated price and the private sector's tariffs in 2015. This study showed that there was a difference between costs and tariffs in the private laboratory. One way to overcome this problem is to increase the number of laboratory tests with regard to capacity of the laboratories.

A case-based reasoning approach for estimating the costs of pump station projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamed M. Marzouk

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The effective estimation of costs is crucial to the success of construction projects. Cost estimates are used to evaluate, approve and/or fund projects. Organizations use some form of classification system to identify the various types of estimates that may be prepared during the lifecycle of a project. This research presents a parametric-cost model for pump station projects. Fourteen factors have been identified as important to the influence of the cost of pump station projects. A data set that consists of forty-four pump station projects (fifteen water and twenty-nine waste water are collected to build a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR library and to test its performance. The results obtained from the CBR tool are processed and adopted to improve the accuracy of the results. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the development of the effectiveness of the tool.

Equipment Design and Cost Estimation for Small Modular Biomass Systems, Synthesis Gas Cleanup, and Oxygen Separation Equipment; Task 1: Cost Estimates of Small Modular Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nexant Inc.

2006-05-01

This deliverable is the Final Report for Task 1, Cost Estimates of Small Modular Systems, as part of NREL Award ACO-5-44027, ''Equipment Design and Cost Estimation for Small Modular Biomass Systems, Synthesis Gas Cleanup and Oxygen Separation Equipment''. Subtask 1.1 looked into processes and technologies that have been commercially built at both large and small scales, with three technologies, Fluidized Catalytic Cracking (FCC) of refinery gas oil, Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) of Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Expanders, chosen for further investigation. These technologies were chosen due to their applicability relative to other technologies being considered by NREL for future commercial applications, such as indirect gasification and fluidized bed tar cracking. Research in this subject is driven by an interest in the impact that scaling has on the cost and major process unit designs for commercial technologies. Conclusions from the evaluations performed could be applied to other technologies being considered for modular or skid-mounted applications.

Estimating the cost of delivering direct nutrition interventions at scale: national and subnational level insights from India.

Science.gov (United States)

Menon, Purnima; McDonald, Christine M; Chakrabarti, Suman

2016-05-01

India's national nutrition and health programmes are largely designed to provide evidence-based nutrition-specific interventions, but intervention coverage is low due to a combination of implementation challenges, capacity and financing gaps. Global cost estimates for nutrition are available but national and subnational costs are not. We estimated national and subnational costs of delivering recommended nutrition-specific interventions using the Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) costing approach. We compared costs of delivering the SUN interventions at 100% scale with those of nationally recommended interventions. Target populations (TP) for interventions were estimated using national population and nutrition data. Unit costs (UC) were derived from programmatic data. The cost of delivering an intervention at 100% coverage was calculated as (UC*projected TP). Cost estimates varied; estimates for SUN interventions were lower than estimates for nationally recommended interventions because of differences in choice of intervention, target group or unit cost. US$5.9bn/year are required to deliver a set of nationally recommended nutrition interventions at scale in India, while US$4.2bn are required for the SUN interventions. Cash transfers (49%) and food supplements (40%) contribute most to costs of nationally recommended interventions, while food supplements to prevent and treat malnutrition contribute most to the SUN costs. We conclude that although such costing is useful to generate broad estimates, there is an urgent need for further costing studies on the true unit costs of the delivery of nutrition-specific interventions in different local contexts to be able to project accurate national and subnational budgets for nutrition in India. © 2016 The Authors. Maternal & Child Nutrition published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Stochastic Estimation of Cost Frontier: Evidence from Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan

2012-01-01

In the literature of higher education cost function study, enough knowledge is created in the area of economy scale in the context of developed countries but the knowledge of input demand is lacking. On the other hand, empirical knowledge in the context of developing countries is very meagre. The paper fills up the knowledge gap, estimating a…

Solid Waste Operations Complex W-113: Project cost estimate. Preliminary design report. Volume IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

This document contains Volume IV of the Preliminary Design Report for the Solid Waste Operations Complex W-113 which is the Project Cost Estimate and construction schedule. The estimate was developed based upon Title 1 material take-offs, budgetary equipment quotes and Raytheon historical in-house data. The W-113 project cost estimate and project construction schedule were integrated together to provide a resource loaded project network

Estimates of the cost and energy consumption of aluminum-air electric vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, J. F.

1980-11-01

Economic costs and primary energy consumption are estimated for general purpose electric vehicles using aluminum-air propulsion batteries within the time frame of the 1990's (earliest possible date of introduction). For an aluminum-air fuel economy of 36 tonne/km/kg-Al (optimized low-gallium alloys), a total refueling cost of 5.6 cents/km (1979$) was estimated for a 1.27 tonne vehicle. This is equivalent to $2 to 3/gal for automobiles of the same weight with fuel economies of 13.5 to 19.3 tonne-km/liter. The total primary energy consumption was estimated to be 1.3 to 1.7 kWh/km (coal) for the electric vehicle, which corresponds roughly to the energy cost of the automobiles using liquid fuels synthesized from coal. The energy consumption is 30 to 70 percent greater than the reference automobile using petroleum-derived gasoline.

Capital and operating cost estimates for high temperature superconducting magnetic energy storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schoenung, S.M.; Meier, W.R.; Fagaly, R.L.; Heiberger, M.; Stephens, R.B.; Leuer, J.A.; Guzman, R.A.

1992-01-01

Capital and operating costs have been estimated for mid-scale (2 to 200 Mwh) superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) designed to use high temperature superconductors (HTS). Capital costs are dominated by the cost of superconducting materials. Operating costs, primarily for regeneration, are significantly reduced for HTS-SMES in comparison to low temperature, conventional systems. This cost component is small compared to other O and M and capital components, when levelized annual costs are projected. In this paper, the developments required for HTS-SMES feasibility are discussed

Systematic methodology for estimating direct capital costs for blanket tritium processing systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finn, P.A.

1985-01-01

This paper describes the methodology developed for estimating the relative capital costs of blanket processing systems. The capital costs of the nine blanket concepts selected in the Blanket Comparison and Selection Study are presented and compared

An examination of sources of sensitivity of consumer surplus estimates in travel cost models.

Science.gov (United States)

Blaine, Thomas W; Lichtkoppler, Frank R; Bader, Timothy J; Hartman, Travis J; Lucente, Joseph E

2015-03-15

We examine sensitivity of estimates of recreation demand using the Travel Cost Method (TCM) to four factors. Three of the four have been routinely and widely discussed in the TCM literature: a) Poisson verses negative binomial regression; b) application of Englin correction to account for endogenous stratification; c) truncation of the data set to eliminate outliers. A fourth issue we address has not been widely modeled: the potential effect on recreation demand of the interaction between income and travel cost. We provide a straightforward comparison of all four factors, analyzing the impact of each on regression parameters and consumer surplus estimates. Truncation has a modest effect on estimates obtained from the Poisson models but a radical effect on the estimates obtained by way of the negative binomial. Inclusion of an income-travel cost interaction term generally produces a more conservative but not a statistically significantly different estimate of consumer surplus in both Poisson and negative binomial models. It also generates broader confidence intervals. Application of truncation, the Englin correction and the income-travel cost interaction produced the most conservative estimates of consumer surplus and eliminated the statistical difference between the Poisson and the negative binomial. Use of the income-travel cost interaction term reveals that for visitors who face relatively low travel costs, the relationship between income and travel demand is negative, while it is positive for those who face high travel costs. This provides an explanation of the ambiguities on the findings regarding the role of income widely observed in the TCM literature. Our results suggest that policies that reduce access to publicly owned resources inordinately impact local low income recreationists and are contrary to environmental justice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation development cost, study case: Quality Management System Reactor TRIGA Mark III

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antúnez Barbosa, Tereso Antonio; Valdovinos Rosas, Rosa María; Marcial Romero, José Raymundo; Ramos Corchado, Marco Antonio; Edgar Herrera Arriaga

2016-01-01

The process of estimating costs in software engineering is not a simple task, it must be addressed carefully to obtain an efficient strategy to solve problems associated with the effort, cost and time of activities that are performed in the development of an information system project. In this context the main goal for both developers and customers is the cost, since developers are worry about the effort pay-load and customers are worry about the product pay-load. However, in other fields the cost of goods depends on the activity or process that is performed, thereby deduce that the main cost of the final product of a development project software project is undoubtedly its size. In this paper a comparative study of common models for estimating costs are developed. These models are used today in order to create a structured analysis to provide the necessary information about cost, time and effort for making decisions in a software development project. Finally the models are applied to a case study, which is a system called Monitorizacion Automatica del Sistema de Gestion de Calidad del Reactor TRIGA Mark III. (author)

Review of hardware cost estimation methods, models and tools applied to early phases of space mission planning

Science.gov (United States)

Trivailo, O.; Sippel, M.; Şekercioğlu, Y. A.

2012-08-01

The primary purpose of this paper is to review currently existing cost estimation methods, models, tools and resources applicable to the space sector. While key space sector methods are outlined, a specific focus is placed on hardware cost estimation on a system level, particularly for early mission phases during which specifications and requirements are not yet crystallised, and information is limited. For the space industry, cost engineering within the systems engineering framework is an integral discipline. The cost of any space program now constitutes a stringent design criterion, which must be considered and carefully controlled during the entire program life cycle. A first step to any program budget is a representative cost estimate which usually hinges on a particular estimation approach, or methodology. Therefore appropriate selection of specific cost models, methods and tools is paramount, a difficult task given the highly variable nature, scope as well as scientific and technical requirements applicable to each program. Numerous methods, models and tools exist. However new ways are needed to address very early, pre-Phase 0 cost estimation during the initial program research and establishment phase when system specifications are limited, but the available research budget needs to be established and defined. Due to their specificity, for vehicles such as reusable launchers with a manned capability, a lack of historical data implies that using either the classic heuristic approach such as parametric cost estimation based on underlying CERs, or the analogy approach, is therefore, by definition, limited. This review identifies prominent cost estimation models applied to the space sector, and their underlying cost driving parameters and factors. Strengths, weaknesses, and suitability to specific mission types and classes are also highlighted. Current approaches which strategically amalgamate various cost estimation strategies both for formulation and validation

Annual national direct and indirect cost estimates of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh; Itria, Alexander; Silva, Gulnar Azevedo e; Sartori, Ana Marli Christovam; Rama, Cristina Helena; de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil. METHODS: This cost description study used a "gross-costing" methodology and adopted the health system and societal perspectives. The estimates were grouped into sets of procedures performed in phases of cervical cancer care: the screening, diagnosis and treatment of precancerous lesions and the treatment of cervical cancer. The costs were estimated for the public and private health systems, using data from national health information systems, population surveys, and literature reviews. The cost estimates are presented in 2006 USD. RESULTS: From the societal perspective, the estimated total costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer amounted to USD $1,321,683,034, which was categorized as follows: procedures (USD $213,199,490), visits (USD $325,509,842), transportation (USD $106,521,537) and productivity losses (USD $676,452,166). Indirect costs represented 51% of the total costs, followed by direct medical costs (visits and procedures) at 41% and direct non-medical costs (transportation) at 8%. The public system represented 46% of the total costs, and the private system represented 54%. CONCLUSION: Our national cost estimates of cervical cancer prevention and treatment, indicating the economic importance of cervical cancer screening and care, will be useful in monitoring the effect of the HPV vaccine introduction and are of interest in research and health care management. PMID:26017797

Cost Estimation for Cross-organizational ERP Projects: Research Perspectives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Daneva, Maia; Bieman, J.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

There are many methods for estimating size, effort, schedule and other cost aspects of IS projects, but only one specifically developed for Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) [67] and none for simultaneous, interdependent ERP projects in a cross-organizational context. The objective of this paper is

Estimating cost ratio distribution between fatal and non-fatal road accidents in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Hamdan, Nurhidayah; Daud, Noorizam

2014-07-01

Road traffic crashes are a global major problem, and should be treated as a shared responsibility. In Malaysia, road accident tragedies kill 6,917 people and injure or disable 17,522 people in year 2012, and government spent about RM9.3 billion in 2009 which cost the nation approximately 1 to 2 percent loss of gross domestic product (GDP) reported annually. The current cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal accident used by Ministry of Works Malaysia simply based on arbitrary value of 6:4 or equivalent 1.5:1 depends on the fact that there are six factors involved in the calculation accident cost for fatal accident while four factors for non-fatal accident. The simple indication used by the authority to calculate the cost ratio is doubted since there is lack of mathematical and conceptual evidence to explain how this ratio is determined. The main aim of this study is to determine the new accident cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal accident in Malaysia based on quantitative statistical approach. The cost ratio distributions will be estimated based on Weibull distribution. Due to the unavailability of official accident cost data, insurance claim data both for fatal and non-fatal accident have been used as proxy information for the actual accident cost. There are two types of parameter estimates used in this study, which are maximum likelihood (MLE) and robust estimation. The findings of this study reveal that accident cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal claim when using MLE is 1.33, while, for robust estimates, the cost ratio is slightly higher which is 1.51. This study will help the authority to determine a more accurate cost ratio between fatal and non-fatal accident as compared to the official ratio set by the government, since cost ratio is an important element to be used as a weightage in modeling road accident related data. Therefore, this study provides some guidance tips to revise the insurance claim set by the Malaysia road authority, hence the appropriate method

AN ENHANCED MODEL TO ESTIMATE EFFORT, PERFORMANCE AND COST OF THE SOFTWARE PROJECTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Pauline

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The Authors have proposed a model that first captures the fundamentals of software metrics in the phase 1 consisting of three primitive primary software engineering metrics; they are person-months (PM, function-points (FP, and lines of code (LOC. The phase 2 consists of the proposed function point which is obtained by grouping the adjustment factors to simplify the process of adjustment and to ensure more consistency in the adjustments. In the proposed method fuzzy logic is used for quantifying the quality of requirements and is added as one of the adjustment factor, thus a fuzzy based approach for the Enhanced General System Characteristics to Estimate Effort of the Software Projects using productivity has been obtained. The phase 3 takes the calculated function point from our work and is given as input to the static single variable model (i.e. to the Intermediate COCOMO and COCOMO II for cost estimation. The Authors have tailored the cost factors in intermediate COCOMO and both; cost and scale factors are tailored in COCOMO II to suite to the individual development environment, which is very important for the accuracy of the cost estimates. The software performance indicators are project duration, schedule predictability, requirements completion ratio and post-release defect density, are also measured for the software projects in my work. A comparative study for effort, performance measurement and cost estimation of the software project is done between the existing model and the authors proposed work. Thus our work analyzes the interaction¬al process through which the estimation tasks were collectively accomplished.

Development of hybrid lifecycle cost estimating tool (HLCET) for manufacturing influenced design tradeoff

Science.gov (United States)

Sirirojvisuth, Apinut

In complex aerospace system design, making an effective design decision requires multidisciplinary knowledge from both product and process perspectives. Integrating manufacturing considerations into the design process is most valuable during the early design stages since designers have more freedom to integrate new ideas when changes are relatively inexpensive in terms of time and effort. Several metrics related to manufacturability are cost, time, and manufacturing readiness level (MRL). Yet, there is a lack of structured methodology that quantifies how changes in the design decisions impact these metrics. As a result, a new set of integrated cost analysis tools are proposed in this study to quantify the impacts. Equally important is the capability to integrate this new cost tool into the existing design methodologies without sacrificing agility and flexibility required during the early design phases. To demonstrate the applicability of this concept, a ModelCenter environment is used to develop software architecture that represents Integrated Product and Process Development (IPPD) methodology used in several aerospace systems designs. The environment seamlessly integrates product and process analysis tools and makes effective transition from one design phase to the other while retaining knowledge gained a priori. Then, an advanced cost estimating tool called Hybrid Lifecycle Cost Estimating Tool (HLCET), a hybrid combination of weight-, process-, and activity-based estimating techniques, is integrated with the design framework. A new weight-based lifecycle cost model is created based on Tailored Cost Model (TCM) equations [3]. This lifecycle cost tool estimates the program cost based on vehicle component weights and programmatic assumptions. Additional high fidelity cost tools like process-based and activity-based cost analysis methods can be used to modify the baseline TCM result as more knowledge is accumulated over design iterations. Therefore, with this

Construction cost estimation of spherical storage tanks: artificial neural networks and hybrid regression—GA algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Arabzadeh, Vida; Niaki, S. T. A.; Arabzadeh, Vahid

2017-10-01

One of the most important processes in the early stages of construction projects is to estimate the cost involved. This process involves a wide range of uncertainties, which make it a challenging task. Because of unknown issues, using the experience of the experts or looking for similar cases are the conventional methods to deal with cost estimation. The current study presents data-driven methods for cost estimation based on the application of artificial neural network (ANN) and regression models. The learning algorithms of the ANN are the Levenberg-Marquardt and the Bayesian regulated. Moreover, regression models are hybridized with a genetic algorithm to obtain better estimates of the coefficients. The methods are applied in a real case, where the input parameters of the models are assigned based on the key issues involved in a spherical tank construction. The results reveal that while a high correlation between the estimated cost and the real cost exists; both ANNs could perform better than the hybridized regression models. In addition, the ANN with the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm (LMNN) obtains a better estimation than the ANN with the Bayesian-regulated learning algorithm (BRNN). The correlation between real data and estimated values is over 90%, while the mean square error is achieved around 0.4. The proposed LMNN model can be effective to reduce uncertainty and complexity in the early stages of the construction project.

A model to estimate cost-savings in diabetic foot ulcer prevention efforts.

Science.gov (United States)

Barshes, Neal R; Saedi, Samira; Wrobel, James; Kougias, Panos; Kundakcioglu, O Erhun; Armstrong, David G

2017-04-01

Sustained efforts at preventing diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) and subsequent leg amputations are sporadic in most health care systems despite the high costs associated with such complications. We sought to estimate effectiveness targets at which cost-savings (i.e. improved health outcomes at decreased total costs) might occur. A Markov model with probabilistic sensitivity analyses was used to simulate the five-year survival, incidence of foot complications, and total health care costs in a hypothetical population of 100,000 people with diabetes. Clinical event and cost estimates were obtained from previously-published trials and studies. A population without previous DFU but with 17% neuropathy and 11% peripheral artery disease (PAD) prevalence was assumed. Primary prevention (PP) was defined as reducing initial DFU incidence. PP was more than 90% likely to provide cost-savings when annual prevention costs are less than $50/person and/or annual DFU incidence is reduced by at least 25%. Efforts directed at patients with diabetes who were at moderate or high risk for DFUs were very likely to provide cost-savings if DFU incidence was decreased by at least 10% and/or the cost was less than $150 per person per year. Low-cost DFU primary prevention efforts producing even small decreases in DFU incidence may provide the best opportunity for cost-savings, especially if focused on patients with neuropathy and/or PAD. Mobile phone-based reminders, self-identification of risk factors (ex. Ipswich touch test), and written brochures may be among such low-cost interventions that should be investigated for cost-savings potential. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Cost estimation of interim dry storage for Atucha I NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bergallo, Juan E.; Fuenzalida Troyano, Carlos S.

2007-01-01

A joint effort between NASA and CNEA has been performed in order to evaluate and fix the strategy of interim spent fuel storage for Atucha I nuclear power plant. In this work the cost estimation on the proposed system was performed in order to fix the parameter and design criteria for the next engineering step. The main results achieved show that both alternatives are all in the same range of costs per unit of mass to be stored, the impact on electricity cost is less than 1 US mills/KWh and the scaling factor achieved is 0.85. (author) [es

Selection of relevant items for decommissioning costing estimation of a PWR using fuzzy logic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monteiro, Deiglys Borges; Busse, Alexander Lucas; Moreira, Joao M.L.; Maiorino, Jose Rubens

2015-01-01

The decommissioning is an important part of a nuclear power plant life cycle which may occur by technical, economical or safety reasons. Decommissioning requires carrying out a large number of tasks that should be planned in advance, involves cost evaluations, preparation of plans of activity and actual operational actions. Despite the large number of tasks, only part of them is relevant for cost estimation purpose. The technical literature and international regulatory agencies suggest a variety of methods for decommissioning cost estimation. Most of them require a very detailed knowledge of the plant and data available suitable for plants that are starting their decommissioning but not for those in the planning stage. The present work aims to apply fuzzy logic to sort out relevant items to cost estimation in order to reduce the work effort involved. The scheme uses parametric equations for specific cost items, and is applied to specific parts of the process of nuclear power plant decommissioning. (author)

Selection of relevant items for decommissioning costing estimation of a PWR using fuzzy logic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Monteiro, Deiglys Borges; Busse, Alexander Lucas; Moreira, Joao M.L.; Maiorino, Jose Rubens, E-mail: deiglys.monteiro@ufabc.edu.br, E-mail: alexlucasb@gmail.com, E-mail: joao.moreira@ufabc.edu.br, E-mail: joserubens.maiorino@ufabc.edu.br [Universidade Federal do ABC (CECS/UFABC), Santo Andre, SP (Brazil). Centro de Engenharia, Modelagem e Ciencias Aplicadas. Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Energia e Engenharia da Energia

2015-07-01

The decommissioning is an important part of a nuclear power plant life cycle which may occur by technical, economical or safety reasons. Decommissioning requires carrying out a large number of tasks that should be planned in advance, involves cost evaluations, preparation of plans of activity and actual operational actions. Despite the large number of tasks, only part of them is relevant for cost estimation purpose. The technical literature and international regulatory agencies suggest a variety of methods for decommissioning cost estimation. Most of them require a very detailed knowledge of the plant and data available suitable for plants that are starting their decommissioning but not for those in the planning stage. The present work aims to apply fuzzy logic to sort out relevant items to cost estimation in order to reduce the work effort involved. The scheme uses parametric equations for specific cost items, and is applied to specific parts of the process of nuclear power plant decommissioning. (author)

Introduction to the methods of estimating nuclear power generating costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1961-11-01

The present report prepared by the Agency with the guidance and assistance of a panel of experts from Member States, the names of whom will be found at the end of this report, represents the first step in the methods of cost evaluation. The main objectives of the report are: (1) The preparation of a full list of the cost items likely to be encountered so that the preliminary estimates for a given nuclear power system can be relied upon in deciding on its economic merits. (2) A survey of the methods currently used for the estimation of the generating costs of the power produced by a nuclear station. The survey is intended for a wide audience ranging from engineers to public officials with an interest in the prospects of nuclear power. An attempt has therefore been made to refrain from detailed technical discussions in order to make the presentation easily understandable to readers with only a very general knowledge of the principles of nuclear engineering. 3 figs, tabs.

Introduction to the methods of estimating nuclear power generating costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1961-01-01

The present report prepared by the Agency with the guidance and assistance of a panel of experts from Member States, the names of whom will be found at the end of this report, represents the first step in the methods of cost evaluation. The main objectives of the report are: (1) The preparation of a full list of the cost items likely to be encountered so that the preliminary estimates for a given nuclear power system can be relied upon in deciding on its economic merits. (2) A survey of the methods currently used for the estimation of the generating costs of the power produced by a nuclear station. The survey is intended for a wide audience ranging from engineers to public officials with an interest in the prospects of nuclear power. An attempt has therefore been made to refrain from detailed technical discussions in order to make the presentation easily understandable to readers with only a very general knowledge of the principles of nuclear engineering. 3 figs, tabs

Reduced Multivariate Polynomial Model for Manufacturing Costs Estimation of Piping Elements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nibaldo Rodriguez

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the development and evaluation of an estimation model of manufacturing costs of piping elements through the application of a Reduced Multivariate Polynomial (RMP. The model allows obtaining accurate estimations, even when enough and adequate information is not available. This situation typically occurs in the early stages of the design process of industrial products. The experimental evaluations show that the approach is capable, with a low complexity, of reducing uncertainties and to predict costs with significant precision. Comparisons with a neural network showed also that the RMP performs better considering a set of classical performance measures with the corresponding lower complexity and higher accuracy.

Economic impact of malignant mesothelioma in Italy: an estimate of the public and social costs.

Science.gov (United States)

Buresti, Giuliana; Colonna, Fabrizio; Corfiati, Marisa; Valenti, Antonio; Persechino, Benedetta; Marinaccio, Alessandro; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Iavicoli, Sergio

2017-10-27

Despite their considerable interest for public health policies and for occupational disease management and assessment, the economic costs of asbestos-related diseases (ARDs) for society have not been fully estimated or even frequently discussed. The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of mesothelioma in Italy by assessing the overall societal cost of the disease, applying an econometric model. We analyzed two main cost groups, public and social. The first includes expenditure borne by the State and other public bodies (medical care costs, insurance, tax and benefits), while the latter uses the human capital approach to measure the loss of productivity suffered by the economy as a whole. We provide an estimate of euro 33,000 per patient for medical care costs and euro 25,000 for insurance and compensation; tax and benefits seem to roughly compensate. We estimated a loss of more than euro 200,000 per patient, in terms of loss of production. This study offers a practical approach for estimating the economic impact of mesothelioma, and provides empirical evidence of the huge economic burden linked to this disease, with its high etiologic fraction.

Estimating the unit costs of public hospitals and primary healthcare centers.

Science.gov (United States)

Younis, Mustafa Z; Jaber, Samer; Mawson, Anthony R; Hartmann, Michael

2013-01-01

Many factors have affected the rise of health expenditures, such as high-cost medical technologies, changes in disease patterns and increasing demand for health services. All countries allocate a significant portion of resources to the health sector. In 2008, the gross domestic product of Palestine was estimated to be at $6.108bn (current price) or about $1697 per capita. Health expenditures are estimated at 15.6% of the gross domestic product, almost as much as those of Germany, Japan and other developed countries. The numbers of hospitals, hospital beds and primary healthcare centers in the country have all increased. The Ministry of Health (MOH) currently operates 27 of 76 hospitals, with a total of 3074 beds, which represent 61% of total beds of all hospitals in the Palestinian Authorities area. Also, the MOH is operating 453 of 706 Primary Health Care facilities. By 2007, about 40 000 people were employed in different sectors of the health system, with 33% employed by the MOH. This purpose of this study was to develop a financing strategy to help cover some or all of the costs involved in operating such institutions and to estimate the unit cost of primary and secondary programs and departments. A retrospective study was carried out on data from government hospitals and primary healthcare centers to identify and analyze the costs and output (patient-related services) and to estimate the unit cost of health services provided by hospitals and PHCs during the year 2008. All operating costs are assigned and allocated to the departments at MOH hospitals and primary health care centers (PPHCs) and are identified as overhead departments, intermediate-service and final-service departments. Intermediate-service departments provide procedures and services to patients in the final-service departments. The costs of the overhead departments are distributed to the intermediate-service and final-service departments through a step-down method, according to allocation

Estimation of the cost of treatment by chemotherapy for early breast cancer in Morocco

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boutayeb Saber

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Breast cancer is the first cancer in women both in incidence and mortality. The treatment of breast cancer benefited from the progress of chemotherapy and targeted therapies, but there was a parallel increase in treatment costs. Despite a relatively high incidence of many sites of cancer, so far, there is no national register for this disease in Morocco. The main goal of this paper is to estimate the total cost of chemotherapy in the early stages of breast cancer due to its frequency and the chances of patients being cured. This study provides health decision-makers with a first estimate of costs and the opportunity to achieve the optimal use of available data to estimate the needs of antimitotics and trastuzumab in Morocco. Method We start by evaluating the individual cost according to the therapeutic sub-groups, namely: 1. Patients needing chemotherapy with only anthracycline-based therapy. 2. Patients needing chemotherapy with both anthracycline and taxane but without trastuzumab. 3. Patients needing trastuzumab in addition to chemotherapy. For each sub-group, the protocol of treatment is described, and the individual costs per unit, and for the whole cycle, are evaluated. Then we estimate the number of women suffering from breast cancer on the basis of two data bases available in Morocco. Finally, we calculate the total annual cost of treatment of breast cancer in Morocco. Results The total cost of breast cancer in Morocco is given in Moroccan dirhams (MAD, the US dollar at the current exchange rate (MAD 10 = USD 1.30 and in international dollars or purchasing power parity (MAD 10 = PPP 1.95. The cost of a therapy with trastuzumab is 8.4 times the cost of a sequential chemotherapy combining anthracycline and taxane, and nearly 60 times the cost of chemotherapy based on anthracycline alone. Globally, between USD 13.3 million and USD 28.6 million need to be devoted every year by the Moroccan health authorities to treat

Efforts to Support Consumer Enrollment Decisions Using Total Cost Estimators: Lessons from the Affordable Care Act’s Marketplaces.

Science.gov (United States)

Giovannelli, Justin; Curran, Emily

2017-02-01

Issue: Policymakers have sought to improve the shopping experience on the Affordable Care Act’s marketplaces by offering decision support tools that help consumers better understand and compare their health plan options. Cost estimators are one such tool. They are designed to provide consumers a personalized estimate of the total cost--premium, minus subsidy, plus cost-sharing--of their coverage options. Cost estimators were available in most states by the start of the fourth open enrollment period. Goal: To understand the experiences of marketplaces that offer a total cost estimator and the interests and concerns of policymakers from states that are not using them. Methods: Structured interviews with marketplace officials, consumer enrollment assisters, technology vendors, and subject matter experts; analysis of the total cost estimators available on the marketplaces as of October 2016. Key findings and conclusions: Informants strongly supported marketplace adoption of a total cost estimator. Marketplaces that offer an estimator faced a range of design choices and varied significantly in their approaches to resolving them. Interviews suggested a clear need for additional consumer testing and data analysis of tool usage and for sustained outreach to enrollment assisters to encourage greater use of the estimators.

Estimating the cost to U.S. health departments to conduct HIV surveillance.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrestha, Ram K; Sansom, Stephanie L; Laffoon, Benjamin T; Farnham, Paul G; Shouse, R Luke; MacMaster, Karen; Hall, H Irene

2014-01-01

HIV case surveillance is a primary source of information for monitoring HIV burden in the United States and guiding the allocation of prevention and treatment funds. While the number of people living with HIV and the need for surveillance data have increased, little is known about the cost of surveillance. We estimated the economic cost to health departments of conducting high-quality HIV case surveillance. We collected primary data on the unit cost and quantity of resources used to operate the HIV case surveillance program in Michigan, where HIV burden (i.e., the number of HIV cases) is moderate to high (n=14,864 cases). Based on Michigan's data, we projected the expected annual HIV surveillance cost for U.S., state, local, and territorial health departments. We based our cost projection on the variation in the number of new and established cases, area-specific wages, and potential economies of scale. We estimated the annual total HIV surveillance cost to the Michigan health department to be $1,286,524 ($87/case), the annual total cost of new cases to be $108,657 ($133/case), and the annual total cost of established cases to be $1,177,867 ($84/case). Our projected median annual HIV surveillance cost per health department ranged from $210,600 in low-HIV burden sites to $1,835,000 in high-HIV burden sites. Our analysis shows that a systematic approach to costing HIV surveillance at the health department level is feasible. For HIV surveillance, a substantial portion of total surveillance costs is attributable to maintaining established cases.

Estimated costs of treatment of benign prostate hyperplasia in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haylton J. Suaid

2003-06-01

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The treatment of benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH presents 2 options: medical or surgical, and there are doubts about what is the best treatment since 80% of patients who undergo surgery become asymptomatic and 10 to 40% of those under medical regimen undergo surgery within a 5 years period. It is difficult to assess the actual costs of treating BPH in Brazil due to several factors, among them regional particularities and the scarcity of current statistical data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Recently, in the Ribeirão Preto area, São Paulo, Brazil, the IPSS (International Prostatic Symptoms Score and quality of life were verified in 934 volunteers. It was determined the percentage of individuals with ages ranging from 40 to 79 years with moderate symptoms (score 8-19 and with severe symptoms (score 20-35, values for which are indicated medical and surgical treatment, respectively, according to the Brazilian Society of Urology consensus on BPH. Data on Brazilian population in that age range were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics referent to the year of 2000. It was determined the number of patients, according to the criteria above, subjected to either one of the treatments mentioned. Surgical costs of prostate transurethral resection were researched according to Unified Health System - SUS tables (US$ 173 and of Brazilian Medical Society - AMB with a mean cost in 3 hospitals of US$ 933. Drug costs were calculated by the annual mean price (US$ 355 of 4 alpha-blockers (tamsulosin, alfuzosin, doxazosin and terazosin. RESULTS: The estimated population for medical treatment was 5,397,321 individuals, with a cost corresponding to US$ 1,916,489,055.00. The estimated population for surgical treatment was 2,040,299 men, what would represent a cost of US$ 353,291,204.00 based on the SUS table and of US$ 1,904,279,066.00 based on AMB with hospital expenses included. CONCLUSION: All theses facts induce us to predict

Estimation of cost and value of energy from wind turbines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tande, J.O.; Fransden, S.

1995-01-01

The International Energy Agency expert group on recommended practices for wind turbine testing and evaluation is finalizing a second edition of the E stimation of cost of energy from wind energy conversion systems . This paper summarizes those recommendations. Further, the value of wind energy in terms of the associated savings is discussed, and a case study is undertaken to illustrate wind energy cost/benefit analyses. The paper concludes that while the recommended practices on cost estimation may be useful in connection with wind energy feasibility studies there is still a need for further international agreement upon guidelines on how to assess wind energy benefits. (author)

Incidence and cost estimate of treating pediatric adverse drug reactions in Lagos, Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kazeem Adeola Oshikoya

Full Text Available CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVES: Adverse drug reactions (ADRs may cause prolonged hospital admissions with high treatment costs. The burden of ADRs in children has never been evaluated in Nigeria. The incidence of pediatric ADRs and the estimated cost of treatment over an 18-month period were determined in this study. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective observational study on children admitted to the pediatric wards of the Lagos State University Teaching Hospital (LASUTH in Nigeria, between July 2006 and December 2007. METHODS: Each patient was assessed for ADRs throughout admission. Medical and non-medical costs to the hospital and patient were estimated for each ADR by reviewing the medical and pharmacy bills, medical charts and diagnostic request forms and by interviewing the parents. Cost estimates were performed in 2007 naira (Nigeria currency from the perspectives of the hospital (government, service users (patients and society (bearers of the total costs attributable to treating ADRs. The total estimated cost was expressed in 2007 United States dollars (USD. RESULTS: Two thousand and four children were admitted during the study; 12 (0.6% were admitted because of ADRs and 23 (1.2% developed ADR(s during admission. Forty ADRs were suspected in these 35 patients and involved 53 medicines. Antibiotics (50% were the most suspected medicines. Approximately 1.83 million naira (USD 15,466.60 was expended to manage all the patients admitted due to ADRs. CONCLUSIONS: Treating pediatric ADRs was very expensive. Pediatric drug use policies in Nigeria need to be reviewed so as to discourage self-medication, polypharmacy prescription and sales of prescription medicines without prescription.

Procedure for estimating nonfuel operation and maintenance costs for large steam-electric power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myers, M.L.; Fuller, L.C.

1979-01-01

Revised guidelines are presented for estimating annual nonfuel operation and maintenance costs for large steam-electric power plants, specifically light-water-reactor plants and coal-fired plants. Previous guidelines were published in October 1975 in ERDA 76-37, a Procedure for Estimating Nonfuel Operating and Maintenance Costs for Large Steam-Electric Power Plants. Estimates for coal-fired plants include the option of limestone slurry scrubbing for flue gas desulfurization. A computer program, OMCOST, is also presented which covers all plant options

Methods for the estimation of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence cost-effectiveness threshold.

Science.gov (United States)

Claxton, Karl; Martin, Steve; Soares, Marta; Rice, Nigel; Spackman, Eldon; Hinde, Sebastian; Devlin, Nancy; Smith, Peter C; Sculpher, Mark

2015-02-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis involves the comparison of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a new technology, which is more costly than existing alternatives, with the cost-effectiveness threshold. This indicates whether or not the health expected to be gained from its use exceeds the health expected to be lost elsewhere as other health-care activities are displaced. The threshold therefore represents the additional cost that has to be imposed on the system to forgo 1 quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of health through displacement. There are no empirical estimates of the cost-effectiveness threshold used by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. (1) To provide a conceptual framework to define the cost-effectiveness threshold and to provide the basis for its empirical estimation. (2) Using programme budgeting data for the English NHS, to estimate the relationship between changes in overall NHS expenditure and changes in mortality. (3) To extend this mortality measure of the health effects of a change in expenditure to life-years and to QALYs by estimating the quality-of-life (QoL) associated with effects on years of life and the additional direct impact on QoL itself. (4) To present the best estimate of the cost-effectiveness threshold for policy purposes. Earlier econometric analysis estimated the relationship between differences in primary care trust (PCT) spending, across programme budget categories (PBCs), and associated disease-specific mortality. This research is extended in several ways including estimating the impact of marginal increases or decreases in overall NHS expenditure on spending in each of the 23 PBCs. Further stages of work link the econometrics to broader health effects in terms of QALYs. The most relevant 'central' threshold is estimated to be £12,936 per QALY (2008 expenditure, 2008-10 mortality). Uncertainty analysis indicates that the probability that the threshold is effects of changes in expenditure are greater

Estimating the Cost for Executing Business Processes in the Cloud

OpenAIRE

Vincenzo Ferme; Ana Ivanchikj; Cesare Pautasso

2016-01-01

Managing and running business processes in the Cloud changes how Workflow Management Systems (WfMSs) are deployed. Consequently when designing such WfMSs there is a need of determining the sweet spot in the performance vs. resource consumption trade off. While all Cloud providers agree on the pay as you go resource consumption model every provider uses a different cost model to gain a competitive edge. In this paper we present a novel method for estimating the infrastructure costs of running ...

Uncertainty quantification metrics for whole product life cycle cost estimates in aerospace innovation

Science.gov (United States)

Schwabe, O.; Shehab, E.; Erkoyuncu, J.

2015-08-01

The lack of defensible methods for quantifying cost estimate uncertainty over the whole product life cycle of aerospace innovations such as propulsion systems or airframes poses a significant challenge to the creation of accurate and defensible cost estimates. Based on the axiomatic definition of uncertainty as the actual prediction error of the cost estimate, this paper provides a comprehensive overview of metrics used for the uncertainty quantification of cost estimates based on a literature review, an evaluation of publicly funded projects such as part of the CORDIS or Horizon 2020 programs, and an analysis of established approaches used by organizations such NASA, the U.S. Department of Defence, the ESA, and various commercial companies. The metrics are categorized based on their foundational character (foundations), their use in practice (state-of-practice), their availability for practice (state-of-art) and those suggested for future exploration (state-of-future). Insights gained were that a variety of uncertainty quantification metrics exist whose suitability depends on the volatility of available relevant information, as defined by technical and cost readiness level, and the number of whole product life cycle phases the estimate is intended to be valid for. Information volatility and number of whole product life cycle phases can hereby be considered as defining multi-dimensional probability fields admitting various uncertainty quantification metric families with identifiable thresholds for transitioning between them. The key research gaps identified were the lacking guidance grounded in theory for the selection of uncertainty quantification metrics and lacking practical alternatives to metrics based on the Central Limit Theorem. An innovative uncertainty quantification framework consisting of; a set-theory based typology, a data library, a classification system, and a corresponding input-output model are put forward to address this research gap as the basis

Technology Estimating 2: A Process to Determine the Cost and Schedule of Space Technology Research and Development

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Stuart K.; Wallace, Jon; Schaffer, Mark; May, M. Scott; Greenberg, Marc W.

2014-01-01

As a leader in space technology research and development, NASA is continuing in the development of the Technology Estimating process, initiated in 2012, for estimating the cost and schedule of low maturity technology research and development, where the Technology Readiness Level is less than TRL 6. NASA' s Technology Roadmap areas consist of 14 technology areas. The focus of this continuing Technology Estimating effort included four Technology Areas (TA): TA3 Space Power and Energy Storage, TA4 Robotics, TA8 Instruments, and TA12 Materials, to confine the research to the most abundant data pool. This research report continues the development of technology estimating efforts completed during 2013-2014, and addresses the refinement of parameters selected and recommended for use in the estimating process, where the parameters developed are applicable to Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) used in the parametric cost estimating analysis. This research addresses the architecture for administration of the Technology Cost and Scheduling Estimating tool, the parameters suggested for computer software adjunct to any technology area, and the identification of gaps in the Technology Estimating process.

African Programme For Onchocerciasis Control 1995-2015: model-estimated health impact and cost.